018
FXUS61 KBTV 200640
AFDBTV
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
140 AM EST Fri Feb 20 2026
.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
As of 136 AM EST Friday...
A Winter Storm Warnings have been expanded into Orange County,
Vermont and portions of northern New York. The timing of the
heaviest snow has slowed somewhat, but impacts to the evening
commute are still anticipated, especially in southern and
central parts of our forecast area.
&&
.KEY MESSAGES...
As of 136 AM EST Friday...
1. A period of heavy, wet snow tonight will impact travel and
could cause isolated to locally scattered power outages before
trending to steady light snow by midnight. The timing of snow
has slowed some, but very difficult travel this evening is still
anticipated.
2. A stretch of relatively quiet and seasonable weather is
expected across the region this weekend into next week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
As of 136 AM EST Friday...
KEY MESSAGE 1: The overall setup for this event remains unchanged,
though delayed a couple hours. Increasing clouds and temperatures in
the 30s are expected, perhaps even touching 40 along western
foothills of the Greens. A strong warm front will gradually lift
northeastwards across Vermont and northern New York this afternoon
and evening. NWS Offices across the Ohio River Valley up to the
Allegheny range have been issuing convective warnings, and that
shows how dynamic a feature we`re working with. Analysis of
layered forcing shows a warm theta E tongue almost over top of
us with maximized omega as strong as 15 to 20 ubar/sec within a
moist DGZ. Strong upper divergence is expected as an upper low
settles over Lake Ontario and a narrow upper ridge along coastal
New England with a favorable coupled jet configuration. A strip
of moderate to heavy snow is expected, as a result. The latest
HREF progs for 1"/hr snowfall rates gets as high as 80-90
percent over parts of northern New York and central Vermont, and
the timing has shifted towards 22z-02z now for the heaviest
snow. There are even some 20-30% contours of 2"/hr snowfall
rates across eastern facing foothills of the Adirondacks within
this time frame of heaviest snow. One of the other things noted
is the collapse of the LLJ. 850 southeasterly flow of 30-35
knots will initially result in some downsloping, but high res
guidance indicates this feature collapses. Where possible,
applied high res guidance that does a good job of shadowing in
these cases like Rutland, Lake Placid, Malone, Richmond, and
Enosburg. After evening passes, the forecast gradually reduces
the level of downsloping by employing coarser blends. Guidance
continues to indicate some mix, but by the time heavy snow
arrives, there are regions with marginal temperatures, but any
wet-bulb temperatures above freezing aloft very quickly fall
below 0 C. The interval of any sleet may be very short-lived.
Snow still appears like it will be wet at the onset with ratios
ranging between 7-11:1, and then gradually increase towards
12-15:1. The wet snow could result in isolated power outages
across the region, locally scattered where snowfall amounts
exceed 8-10 inches. There fortunately won`t be too much in the
way of wind with this event, but it should be a breezy terrain-
driven northeast wind of 10-20 mph along the St. Lawrence
River.
As we approach midnight, forcing collapses as the favorable
alignment of atmospheric lift shifts east or decays. So after the
interval of heavy snow, we will see a gradual decline to light snow.
A backdoor front is still expected to descend out of the north to
northeast, and that will slowly shunt snow back to the south or
southwest during the day. In terms of totals, there`s still a large
degree of spread amongst forecast guidance. We could still contend
with some dry air infiltrating from the south on the backside of the
warm front, and outside heavy snow, marginal surface temperatures
will slow accumulations. Seeing convective activity as close as
it is certainly indicates the need for caution in forecast totals.
Snowfall totals have increased some, especially along the St.
Lawrence River, eastern foothills of the Adirondacks, and south-
central Vermont. A widespread 3-7" is still the most likely
outcome, as indicated by the 50th percentile. Where the
favorable alignment of terrain and the initial warm front come
together, those are the areas pushed to the 75th percentile and
where upgrades to warnings have been done. Regardless of our
exact totals, the impacts to the evening commute across the
southern half of Vermont into New York, as well as the potential
utility impacts, due to heavy, wet snow are still of high
confidence. Impacts will overall decrease Saturday with the
light snowfall rates and drier snow.
KEY MESSAGE 2: Heading into next week, a relatively quiet stretch of
weather is expected. High temperatures will generally be in the 20s
to mid 30s as the week progresses, with overnight lows in single
digits and teens most nights. A coastal low looks to develop Sunday
into Monday, but it looks to track well to the southeast with little
to no impacts expected across our forecast area, other than some
possible light snow showers across southern Vermont and increased
cloud cover. Another system looks to arrive towards the middle of
next week, bring more widespread precipitation to the region. At
this time, it looks like most of the precipitation should fall as
snow, but details will need to be fine-tuned as we get closer.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Through 06Z Saturday...VFR conditions currently prevail across the
region, with a few pockets of MVFR with ceilings generally between
2500 and 4500 ft AGL. These conditions are expected to continue for
the next several hours, until precipitation begins to move into the
region this afternoon which will bring deteriorating conditions.
Snow will overspread the region this afternoon, about 16Z for KSLK
and spreading northeastward with snow expected at KEFK around 00Z or
so, with periods of heavy snow expected this evening. Visibilities
will generally be between 1-2SM within the snow, with even lower
conditions possible. Ceilings will lower as the evening progresses,
with widespread low MVFR and even IFR ceilings expected. Winds will
generally be light and variable throughout the forecast period, with
the exception of KMSS where channeled northeasterly winds will allow
for sustained winds around 10 knots and gusts around 20 knots.
Outlook...
Saturday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SN.
Saturday Night: VFR. Slight chance SN.
Sunday: VFR. Slight chance SN.
Sunday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight chance
SN.
Monday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Slight chance SN.
Monday Night: Mainly MVFR, with local VFR possible. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. NO SIG WX.
&&
.EQUIPMENT...
The KMPV ASOS has suffered a communications failure. The issue
has been diagnosed, but there is currently no estimated time of
return to service. Terminal Aerodrome Forecasts will continue,
but amendments to those forecasts will be suspended.
NOAA Weather Radio station WXM-44, transmitting from Mt.
Ascutney, Vermont, on frequency 162.475 MHz is non- operational
at this time. NWS technicians have diagnosed the problem, but
repairs will likely not be able to occur for quite some time due
to circumstances beyond our control. Therefore, the time of
return to service is currently unknown. The following NOAA
Weather Radio transmitters may be able to provide service during
this outage: WWG 50 from Burke Mtn, VT at 162.425 MHz and WNG
546 from Hanover, NH at 162.525 MHz.
The Colchester Reef meteorological station is out of service.
This site is not serviced by the NWS and there isn`t an
estimated return to service at present. Please contact us if you
observe winds significantly deviating from the recreational
forecast.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...Winter Storm Warning from 10 AM this morning to 10 AM EST
Saturday for VTZ010-018>021.
Winter Weather Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 10 AM EST
Saturday for VTZ001>009-011-016-017.
NY...Winter Storm Warning from 10 AM this morning to 10 AM EST
Saturday for NYZ026-028-030-031-034-035.
Winter Weather Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 10 AM EST
Saturday for NYZ027-029-087.
&&
$$
WHAT HAS CHANGED...Haynes
DISCUSSION...Haynes/Kremer
AVIATION...Kremer
EQUIPMENT...NWS BTV
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