447
FXUS61 KBTV 191118
AFDBTV
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
718 AM EDT Fri Jun 19 2026
.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
As of 256 AM EDT Friday...
No significant changes made with this forecast update.
&&
.KEY MESSAGES...
As of 256 AM EDT Friday...
1. Additional showers and isolated thunderstorms will occur at
times through the weekend as breezy winds continue through Saturday
associated with cyclonic flow.
2. Unsettled pattern prevails most of next week, but
probability of impactful or significant weather is low.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
As of 256 AM EDT Friday...
KEY MESSAGE 1: Vertically stacked low pressure rotates across south-
central Quebec early this morning and is expected to slowly follow
the St. Lawrence River toward the Gulf of St. Lawrence throughout
the day today. This cyclonic flow will result in rounds shortwaves
triggering numerous showers and isolated thunderstorms through the
weekend. This afternoon, precipitation is most likely along the
international border and in upslope areas of the mountains, coverage
then expanding southward tonight and Saturday. West-southwesterly
winds today with gusts 20-30 knots will be turning more west-
northwesterly on Saturday with gusts closer to 10-25 knots,
promoting deep atmospheric mixing. As a result, highs each day will
be in the 60s and 70s with accompanying lows in the mid 40s to 50s,
which could feel a bit chillier in the wind. Apparent temperature
(wind chills) will likely fall into the 40s at elevations above 3000
feet. Saturday evening, precipitation is most likely isolated to the
northern Champlain Valley and northern Greens as brief ridging
stabilizes things, but by Sunday another shortwave looks to come
through to blossom widespread showers and thunderstorms again. By
Sunday night, the upper low haunting our forecast area this weekend
will finally move eastward, replaced by another brief ridge but then
quickly replaced by another closed upper low zooming west to east
across south-central Quebec on Monday, just north of our forecast
area.
KEY MESSAGE 2: Little change seen in the latest guidance as mid/upper
lvl trof prevails acrs the Great Lakes into the NE CONUS next week,
but some timing and track differences are continuing with system on
Monday. Latest NAM12KM has sfc low pres tracking directly overhead
by 12z Monday, while GFS continues to show a unphased northern and
southern stream system. Either way, s/w energy crossing our cwa with
enhanced mid lvl moisture wl produce occasional showers, but
probably not a washout on Monday. A weak mid/upper lvl ridge builds
into our cwa for Tues with drier and warmer weather anticipated.
However, this wl be short-lived with next system in fast progressive
flow aloft arriving Weds into Thurs. This energy, combined with some
instability and moisture wl increase the potential for showers and
thunderstorms on Weds into Thurs. Given strength of dynamics and
associated moderate wind fields/shear, if timing can occur with max
heating/instability the ingredients would support some stronger
storm potential. Something to monitor as we head into the middle of
next week. The WPC gridded fcst shows temps in the 70s
Monday/Tuesday, before warming into the mid 70s to lower 80s for
Weds and Thurs, with lows mostly in the 50s to near 60F.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Through 12Z Saturday...Ceilings and timing of showers with
embedded thunderstorms are the taf challenges today. Currently
conditions vary from IFR at SLK to MVFR at MSS/EFK to VFR at
MPV/BTV/RUT and PBG. IFR will continue at SLK thru 15Z, before
conditions improve to MVFR with a mix of VFR and MVFR. Showers
will increase in areal coverage this aftn and continue into the
evening hours. A few rumbles of thunder will be possible along
with localized gusty winds up to 30 knots. In addition, brief
MVFR vis/cigs are likely in the heavier downpours. Cigs will
continue to trend toward MVFR this evening with IFR likely at
SLK/MPV and EFK and possibly MSS toward Sat morning. Breezy
southwest to west winds prevail most of the day at 10 to 20
knots with gusts up 25 knots.
Outlook...
Saturday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Likely SHRA,
Slight chance TSRA.
Saturday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance
SHRA.
Sunday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Likely SHRA, Chance
TSRA.
Sunday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Monday: VFR. Likely SHRA, Slight chance TSRA.
Monday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA,
Slight chance TSRA.
Tuesday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance SHRA.
&&
.CLIMATE...
As of 308 PM EDT Thursday...
Daily record precipitation of 1.22 inches was achieved for the
Saranac Lake Area yesterday, breaking the 1924 record of 0.87
inches.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.
&&
$$
WHAT HAS CHANGED...Storm
DISCUSSION...Storm/Taber
AVIATION...Taber
CLIMATE...NWS BTV
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