FXUS61 KBTV 141939
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Burlington VT
239 PM EST Fri Dec 14 2018
Seasonably mild and generally quiet weather continues into
Sunday under variably cloudy skies and a brief window of showers
this evening as a weak front moves across the area. A stronger
cold front pushes through the area on Monday with a renewed
threat of snow showers with colder air returning to the region
by the middle of next week.
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
As of 235 PM EST Friday...Cloudy skies abound across the area
as of mid afternoon as southerly flow remains established in
advance of a weak northern stream trough approaching from
southern Ontario. Modest dynamical forcing on the front end of
this feature should be enough to spark a 3-6 window of
scattered/numerous light showers across our far northern
counties into the evening hours and as such highest pops
(40-60%) will be carried in this area accordingly. Further south
just a stray sprinkle will be possible. Thermal profiles
continue to support mainly liquid for p-type, but a few spots in
the higher northern terrain and in portions of far northeastern
VT may see an occasional mix with snow. Any accumulations will
be minimal however. Temperatures to hold fairly steady in the
30s to around 40 overnight before falling slightly toward
sunrise as associated weak cold front crosses the area switching
winds to light west/northwesterly.
Other than a few lingering sprinkles/light snow showers across the
far north Saturday morning mainly dry and quiet weather continues
into Saturday night as surface high pressure bridges across southern
Canada. Variably cloudy skies with occasional breaks to remain the
rule as temperatures remain fairly close to mid-December seasonal
norms (lows 15 to 25 and highs in the 30s).
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
As of 237 PM EST Friday...An upper level cutoff low will be
tracking up from the Gulf Coast as an inland system Sunday.
Widespread rain across the southeast will deplete the system of
moisture as it heads towards New England. Some light precip may
make it into southern Vermont Sunday afternoon but at the same
time a northern stream upper level trough will be digging
through the Great Lakes. That should quickly push the inland
runner offshore. The combination of the inland runner pulling
offshore, and the advancing upper level trough should bring some
precipitation to the North Country generally by mid day on
Monday. The upper level support and dynamic cooling Monday
should lead to modest orographic snowfall with the western
slopes seeing 1-3 inches of new snow.
Temps should be a few degrees above normal with highs in the
mid to upper 30s and lows overnight should only fall to the
upper 20 to low 30s which is well above normal for this time of
year. Monday afternoon and evening expect temps to start to fall
as we get under the influence of cold air advection and lows
fall much closer back to near normal with lows in the teens to
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 237 PM EST Friday...High pressure builds in on Tuesday
and through the middle of the week the forecast looks pretty
quiet until the end of the week as the next system moves in.
Tuesday and Tuesday night certainly seem to be the coldest days
as we stay under cold air advection and temps sit below normal
for mid December. Expect highs in the teens to 20s with lows
Tuesday night in the low teens to single digits. The high
pressure shifts east of the region Wednesday and southerly flow
starts to push warm air advection back into the region on
Wednesday and Thursday.
Heading into the weekend the forecast remains fairly murky as
to exactly what will happen. The general idea as that an upper
level trough will develop on the lee side of the Rocky`s and
start tracking across the eastern half of the CONUS. The
question ends up being where does the surface low develop and
how does it materialize. For the time being I`ve leaned towards
the GFS solution largely based on the idea that the northern
stream trough through this winter has been stronger than the
southern stream counterparts. Thus I`d lean more towards the
idea we get a clipper type low that develops and brings modest
snow to the North Country Friday night into Saturday. Still
plenty of details to be worked out though before any of that
.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Through 18Z Saturday...Mainly BKN/OVC MVFR through 12Z as weak
frontal zone pushes through the area. Best chance for light
rain/snow showers with this feature to occur in the 19-03Z time
frame at selected northern terminals. Some brief IFR possible at
KSLK during this period, otherwise mainly MVFR with some
intermittent breaks to VFR as mentioned above. Winds light to
moderate south/southwesterly (gusts to 20 kt at KBTV through
00Z), trending west/northwesterly behind the front after 12Z
Saturday as cigs slowly improve.
Saturday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Sunday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Sunday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHSN.
Monday: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Chance SN.
Monday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR and IFR possible.
Tuesday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHSN.
Tuesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
As of 235 PM EST Friday...A Lake Wind Advisory remains in
effect tonight. Southerly winds, generally in the 15 to 25 knot
range with occasional gusts to 30 knots are expected this
evening before slowly abating later tonight. These winds will
create choppy to rough conditions on open waters and in
bays/inlets with open southerly exposures. Caution is advised
for those with recreational interests on the water tonight.