265
FXUS61 KBTV 121906
AFDBTV
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
206 PM EST Mon Jan 12 2026
.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
As of 151 PM EST Monday...No significant changes were made to the
forecast, but did increase winds late Tues into Tues Night and fine
tuned pops/qpf and snowfall for the next 12 to 36 hours.
&&
.KEY MESSAGES...
As of 151 PM EST Monday...
1. Mountain snow showers through tonight will produce localized
areas of slick travel across the higher terrain.
2. Above normal temperatures prevail through Wednesday with
periods of gusty southerly winds expected, especially Champlain
Valley and higher terrain.
3. Widespread light to moderate snowfall Wednesday night into
Thursday, likely starting as rain in the broad valleys.
4. A much colder airmass arrives for the end of the week and
onward, though temperatures don`t fall far below climo.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
As of 151 PM EST Monday...
.KEY MESSAGE 1: Mountain snow showers through tonight will produce
localized areas of slick travel across the higher terrain.
Current radar shows snow showers impacting most of northern NY into
the central/northern mtns of VT this aftn. Latest NY Mesonet winter
weather product indicates 12 hour snow accumulations of 0.5 to
1.0" across the SLV thru 18z. Given near freezing bl temps and
limited snowfall rates, most treated road sfc`s are just wet
this aftn. The marginal bl temps and unfavorable shear/wind
parameters has minimized the lake enhanced potential today.
GOES-19 water vapor imagery does indicate several more pockets
of mid lvl moisture and embedded s/w energy progged to move acrs
our cwa through this evening. Each piece of energy and moisture
wl produce mostly trrn focused snow showers acrs northern NY
and the mtns of central/northern VT. Progged southwest to west
flow of 30 to 45 knots wl continue to produce the CPV precip
shadow with limited qpf/snowfall anticipated thru tonight. Have
continued with schc/pops valleys to likely/cat pops in the mtns,
with snow accumulations of a dusting to 3 inches possible,
along with some localized areas of slick travel. Weak ridging
develops aft 06z with decreasing moisture profiles, resulting in
drier conditions with some breaks possible in the overcast.
Temps drop back into the 20s to near 30F by Tues morning.
.KEY MESSAGE 2: Above normal temperatures prevail through Wednesday
with periods of gusty southerly winds expected, especially Champlain
Valley and higher terrain.
Deep south to southwest flow develops ahead of developing mid/upper
lvl s/w trof acrs the northern Plains/western Great Lakes on Tues
into Weds. This warm southerly flow wl help advect progged 925mb
temps in the 1-3C range by 12z Weds, while 850mb temps hover near
0C. These values support a period of much above normal temps, with
highs Tues/Weds in the mid 30s to mid 40s and mild overnight lows in
the upper 20s to upper 30s, especially on Tues night. Did trend the
Tues night lows toward the NBM 75th percentile. As a 987mb low pres
and associated sharp cold front approaches our western cwa late Tues
into Weds the 925mb to 850mb wind fields strengthens. Progged 850mb
jet is 45 to 60 knots from the southwest, while the 925mb jet is 35
to 45 knots from the south at 03z Weds. Sounding analysis at BTV
indicates inversion height at 2000 feet agl with top of the mixed
layer winds around 40 knots and favorable channeled flow, so
anticipating localized gusts 30 to 40 mph here in the CPV and up to
60 mph acrs the summits late Tues into Tues night. Track of sfc low
pres and wind profiles/directions wl result in highest pops acrs the
northern Dacks and central/northern Greens, while our precip shadow
conts in the CPV and lower CT River Valley. Given the warming
thermal profiles, snow level wl be increasing from 1000 fee to 2000
feet by Weds with just a minor/non impactful accumulation possible
by Weds.
.KEY MESSAGE 3: Widespread light to moderate snowfall Wednesday
night into Thursday, likely starting as rain in the broad
valleys.
As has been the trend this winter, a primary low passes by to the
north over Quebec Wednesday into Wednesday night, putting the region
in the warm sector. The difference this time is that it is a
northern stream moisture starved clipper, and despite being forecast
to be sub 990 mb, the warm air advection will not be overly strong.
Therefore, it looks like a mix of light rain and snow develop late
Wednesday into Wednesday evening as the cold front pushes into the
region. A secondary low will gradually develop along this front,
increasing the precipitation rates and intensity. However, it`s
development will only be modest before it passes out to the
northeast. As the cold front pushes through, the precipitation
quickly changes to snow Wednesday night and snow looks to continue
through much of Thursday. Advisory type snow seems to be the most
likely, with a few inches expected for most areas. NBM probabilities
of four or more inches of snow are generally in the forty to sixty
percent range. Very dry air on the backside and temperatures too
cold to support dendrites will lower snow ratios a bit. During
Wednesday night, a quick freeze is possible for untreated surfaces
as temperatures quickly fall below freezing, likely during
precipitation.
KEY MESSAGE 4: A much colder airmass arrives for the end of the
week and onward, though temperatures don`t fall far below
climo.
Large scale troughing builds east into the region for late week
and into the start of next week, bringing a return to the
winter feel. Temperatures will be much colder than they have
been the last few days, but they will not fall much below
climatological normals. For example, the coldest forecast NBM
low through Monday for BTV is 9 Thursday night, only four
degrees below normal. This colder pattern looks to stick around
through next week.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Through 18Z Tuesday...Light snow showers will move through this
afternoon and evening, reducing visibilities at times. IFR
visibilities are expected to mostly prevail through this evening
at SLK, while visibilities will likely fluctuate in and out of
IFR at EFK. They will likely start IFR at MSS this afternoon but
transition to MVFR and VFR as the afternoon goes on. A few
periods of IFR visibilities are possible at MPV but they should
be mostly VFR there. VFR visibilities should mostly prevail at
PBG, BTV and RUT, though a few brief periods of MVFR or IFR
cannot be ruled out. Ceilings are currently a mix of VFR and
MVFR, and that trend will continue through the evening. Where
snow is falling, they will be mostly MVFR but once it ends, they
should rebound to VFR. After the snow showers end late this
evening, mostly VFR conditions should prevail through tomorrow,
though occasional MVFR ceilings are possible. Winds will become
southerly to southwesterly today and slowly increase. Gusts in
the 10 to 20 KT range are expected to develop at PBG, MSS, and
BTV, while they should be around and under 10 KTs elsewhere.
They should decrease slightly overnight and into the day
tomorrow.
Outlook...
Tuesday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Windy with
gusts to 30 kt. Chance SHRA, Chance SHSN.
Wednesday: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. Chance SHRA,
Chance SHSN.
Wednesday Night: Mainly MVFR, with areas IFR possible. Likely
SHSN.
Thursday: Mainly MVFR and IFR, with areas VFR possible. Likely
SN.
Thursday Night: VFR. Chance SHSN.
Friday: VFR. Slight chance SHSN.
Friday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHSN.
Saturday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance SHSN.
&&
.EQUIPMENT...
NOAA Weather Radio station WXM-44, transmitting from Mt.
Ascutney, Vermont, on frequency 162.475 MHz is non-operational
at this time. NWS technicians have diagnosed the problem, but
repairs will likely not be able to occur for quite some time due
to circumstances beyond our control. Therefore, the time of
return to service is currently unknown. The following NOAA
Weather Radio transmitters may be able to provide service during
this outage: WWG 50 from Burke Mtn, VT at 162.425 MHz and WNG
546 from Hanover, NH at 162.525 MHz.
The Colchester Reef meteorological station is out of service.
This site is not serviced by the NWS and there isn`t an
estimated return to service at present. Use extra caution when
navigating the broad waters of Lake Champlain. Please contact us
if you observe winds significantly deviating from the
recreational forecast.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Myskowski/Taber
AVIATION...Myskowski
EQUIPMENT...BTV
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