279
FXUS61 KBTV 211134
AFDBTV
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
634 AM EST Sun Dec 21 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
A quick moving cold front will bring continued brisk conditions,
with moderately strong westerly winds and falling temperatures this
afternoon following frontal passage. There is a chance of snow
showers and possible snow squalls early this morning as the front
moves through from west to east. High pressure brings lighter winds
and generally quiet weather for Monday. Thereafter, a clipper system
approaching from the central Great Lakes region is expected to bring
light snow accumulations and possible minor travel impacts for
Tuesday into Tuesday night.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 130 AM EST Sunday...Near-term weather conditions mainly focused
on shortwave trough crossing the northern Great Lakes region early
this morning. Wx conditions won`t be particularly impactful with
this system as low- level moisture is limited. However, gradient flow
will remain moderately-strong with brisk conditions across NY and
northern VT until this evening. Expected moderately strong surface
winds occurring in some portions of the North Country early this
morning. Observed southerly wind gusts up to 37kt before midnight at
BTV. Appears strongest winds will remain below advisory criteria,
and with strongest 850mb winds generally shifting east of VT after
09Z. Currently watching the associated cold front west of Lake
Ontario at 0545Z. This feature will sweep across the North Country
between 10- 14Z. Associated shallow instability in NAM3/HRRR model
soundings and ongoing, good frontal convergence suggest a period of
snow showers and possible snow squalls with the narrow frontal
precip band. May see a dusting to an inch of snowfall in some areas,
and will monitor its progression toward daybreak as it approaches
nrn NY toward daybreak this morning.
Today`s daytime high temperatures in the mid 30s to lower 40s
from the Champlain Valley wwd will occur early this morning
ahead of the front. Sharp westerly wind shift following FROPA
brings falling temperatures by late morning continuing into the
afternoon, with temperatures mainly in the low to mid-20s by
sunset. Winds will remain gusty due to steepening low-level
lapse rates in CAA regime behind the front. A lake wind advisory
remains in effect for Lake Champlain as a result. Any lingering
mountain snow showers should dissipate by 00Z Monday or so with
continued low-mid level drying.
For tonight and Monday, low-level gradient flow begins to lessen as
high pressure builds in from the southwest. Winds generally remain
NW throughout the overnight, with overnight lows in the 5-15F range
(highest in the immediate Champlain Valley with modifying influence
of Lake Champlain). Monday will be a quiet day as sfc ridge axis
crests overhead. Look for partial sunshine and light west/sw winds.
Highs will generally be in the low-mid 20s, except upper teens
across far nern VT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 130 AM EST Sunday...A clipper system approaching from the
central Great Lakes region will bring the potential for light
snowfall across northern NY and VT. Much of the 00Z guidance suite
shows a slower progression and weaker system overall, with snowfall
likely starting during the late morning to early afternoon hours
Tuesday across northern NY, with stratiform snow overspreading the
remainder of Vermont through mid- late afternoon. There is a very low
chance of a rain/snow mix during Tuesday afternoon as boundary layer
temperatures warm into the 33- 36F range in the immediate Champlain
Valley and southwestern St. Lawrence Co. Snow should be the
predominant precipitation type, with some minor travel impacts still
possible due to snow covered roadways expected late Tuesday through
Tuesday night. Based on present indications, a 1-3" snowfall is
generally expected, with 4" totals possible in the mountains of VT
and northern NY. Will continue to monitor this system for expected
minor travel impacts across our CWA.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 130 AM EST Sunday...A clipper system will be departing the
region Tuesday night with a secondary surface low poised to track
over northern Quebec with an associated connecting boundary to the
clipper draped over the region. This boundary will quickly sweep
over the region Tuesday night with dominating northwest flow, aided
by a developing 1030mb high over the Mid-Atlantic. Some residual
snow showers across the Adirondacks and northern Greens will be
possible with marginal enough forcing and orographic lift to sustain
some light snow. An additional 0.5-2" will be possible in the
upslope favored areas of the Adirondacks and northern Greens by
daybreak Christmas Eve. Main impacts would be some light snow
coating on roadways in the higher terrain. However, no significant
impacts are expected. High pressure noses in for Christmas Eve with
diffluent flow keeping the area mainly dry with calm conditions.
Overnight lows on Christmas Eve will be in the low to upper teens
with generally cloudy skies. As the Mid-Atlantic high shifts east,
winds will become southerly on Christmas with temperatures rising to
near freezing for the entire region. Highs will be near 30 for most
of the region with lows Christmas night in the mid teens to low 20s.
Meager low-level waa may be sufficient to sustain some light snow
showers, mainly along the spine of the Greens, but overall forcing
remains on the weak side. The highest PoPs anywhere in the region on
Christmas are only 20%. The next potentially impactful system will
arrive late Christmas evening into Friday next week. There still
remains a lot of uncertainty with this system mainly in the thermal
profiles, and overall track positioning. However, at or above
seasonable temperatures are anticipated which could draw in some
rain or wintry mix with the system, especially with GEFS 850mb temps
progged at 5C, and 925mb temps 0-3C. We will watch the evolution of
this system in the models for trends in the coming days.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Through 12Z Monday...A strong moisture starved cold front is
pushing through northern New York and into the northern
Champlain Valley within the next hour or so. Observed gusty
winds up to 40 kts are accompanying the front. Southerly winds
ahead of the front will quickly turn to the west with the
frontal passage, turning over the course of an hour or 2. The
timing of the front is generally 12Z in the Champlain Valley,
and 13-14Z at EFK/MPV. RUT should have less gusts, but will
still see a wind shift. Precipitation is falling as mostly virga
based on observing sites, but a brief period of snow cannot be
ruled out as the front passes each terminal. Winds will continue
to shift towards the west/northwest by this evening with winds
remaining breezy. Winds finally will weaken back towards calm by
12Z tomorrow. Ceilings currently are VFR, and should remain VFR
at most sites outside of SLK/MSS/EFK through the TAF period.
Lower clouds across eastern Ontario will advect into northern
New York and the Northeast Kingdom dropping cigs to 2000-3000ft
agl for a few hours this afternoon, particularly at SLK. Any
lower ceilings will be limited by a lack of low level moisture
and a well mixed boundary layer. Ceilings return to VFR at all
sites around 00Z.
Outlook...
Monday: VFR. Chance SHSN.
Monday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHSN.
Tuesday: Mainly MVFR and IFR, with areas VFR possible. Likely SN.
Tuesday Night: Mainly MVFR and IFR, with areas VFR possible.
Likely SN.
Wednesday: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight
chance SHSN.
Christmas Day: VFR. NO SIG WX.
&&
.MARINE...
A Lake Wind Advisory remains in effect for Lake Champlain today
(Sunday). South winds 20-25kt during the pre-dawn hours will shift
westerly with a frontal passage around 7AM EST. Winds will remain
dangerous to small craft, with values west 20-25kts and gusts to
30kts through the balance of the daylight hours on Sunday. The
highest waves will be focused over the northern half of the broad
lake early this morning, and then from Colchester Point to
Burlington once the winds shift into the west. Should see
daytime wave heights 2-4ft in these areas with a moderate chop
given shifting wind direction.
&&
.EQUIPMENT...
NOAA Weather Radio station WXM-44, transmitting from Mt.
Ascutney, Vermont, on frequency 162.475 MHz is non-operational
at this time. NWS technicians have diagnosed the problem, but
repairs will likely not be able to occur for quite some time due
to circumstances beyond our control. Therefore, the time of
return to service is currently unknown. The following NOAA
Weather Radio transmitters may be able to provide service during
this outage: WWG 50 from Burke Mtn, VT at 162.425 MHz and WNG
546 from Hanover, NH at 162.525 MHz.
The Colchester Reef meteorological station is out of service. This
site is not serviced by the NWS and there isn`t an estimated return
to service at present. Use extra caution when navigating the broad
waters of Lake Champlain. Please contact us if you observe winds
significantly deviating from the recreational forecast.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Banacos
NEAR TERM...Banacos
SHORT TERM...Banacos
LONG TERM...Danzig
AVIATION...Danzig
MARINE...Banacos
EQUIPMENT...Team BTV
|
