509
FXUS61 KBTV 212322
AFDBTV
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
622 PM EST Sun Dec 21 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure brings lighter winds and generally quiet weather
for tonight and tomorrow, with only a few light snow showers
possible in northern areas. Afterwards, a clipper system
approaching from the Great Lakes region will bring light snow
accumulations and possible minor travel impacts for Tuesday into
Tuesday night. Behind the system, an active pattern will
continue, but without any major storm systems.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
As of 622 PM EST Sunday...Quick update made to the forecast to
increase PoPs for the next couple of hours due to scattered snow
squalls producing brief reductions in visibility across the
North Country and northern/central Vermont. This activity should
dissipate quickly after 8 PM, with the remainder of the night
trending quiet.
Previous Discussion...While the cold front passed quickly
to the south this morning and any of the heavier convective snow
showers are done, a few areas of light snow remain across the
region. The main one is a line that extends from west to east
across the northern Route 11 corridor, which can be directly
traced back to Lake Huron. As flow becomes more northwesterly
this evening, the lake moisture will shift to the south and it
should mostly end the snow showers. Very subtle ridging moves in
tonight but it will likely not be enough to erode a lot of the
clouds. Temperatures will fall into the single digits and teens
tonight, but lingering clouds and wind should keep the cold
airmass from realizing its full potential. Despite a mostly dry
day Monday, weak warm air advection snow will attempt to move
across northern areas, but dry air, limited moisture, and
minimal forcing may keep much of the precipitation from reaching
the ground. Return southerly flow will begin Monday night, but
the pressure gradient will thankfully be relatively weak, so it
will prevent the strong winds we have seen the past few days.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 131 PM EST Sunday...A more impactful but still relatively
weak clipper moves through Tuesday and Tuesday night. For being
only a couple days out, there is still a surprisingly high
amount of model uncertainty associated with it, but there is
still high confidence in the synoptic setup. A weak surface low
will track far to the north close to the James Bay and then
quickly dive southeast as it runs into a nearly stationary ridge
situated over Atlantic Canada. There will be modest overrunning
along a narrow axis extending well southeast of the low that
will very gradually push northeast. Right now, the consensus is
light snow will enter southwestern areas in the morning and
northeastern areas in the afternoon, before eventually pushing
to the east Tuesday night. The relatively long residence time of
the snow, despite relatively low rates, should allow for most
areas see a few inches. Right now, it looks to be just under
advisory level with most areas seeing 2-4 inches, but that will
depend on the speed and organization of that axis of snow. A
very brief changeover to rain is possible in the lowest valleys,
but with decent lapse rates, the precipitation will stay snow
even if the temperature rises a couple degrees above freezing.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 145 PM EST Sunday...No big changes for the extended
portion of our forecast. High pressure ridges into the region
for Christmas Eve with diffluent flow keeping the area mainly
dry with calm conditions. Any lingering snow showers will end
early in the day. Overnight lows on Christmas Eve will be in the
low to upper teens with generally cloudy skies. As the Mid-
Atlantic high shifts east, winds will become southerly on
Christmas with temperatures rising to near freezing for the
entire region. Lows Christmas night in the mid teens to low 20s.
Low level warm air advection may be sufficient to sustain some
light snow showers, mainly along the spine of the Greens, but
overall forcing remains on the weak side. The highest PoPs
anywhere in the region on Christmas are only slight chance. The
next potentially impactful system will arrive late Christmas
evening into Friday. There still remains a lot of uncertainty
with this system mainly in the thermal profiles, and overall
track positioning. However, at or above seasonable temperatures
are anticipated which could draw in some rain or wintry mix with
the system. We will watch the evolution of this system in the
models for trends in the coming days.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z Monday THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Through 00Z Tuesday...Gusty west-northwesterly winds continue
this evening in the wake of a strong cold front that crossed
the area earlier today. These winds combined with residual low
level moisture have produced some scattered snow squalls across
central/northern terminals this evening and if additional
terminals are impacted, mainly KBTV/KMPV, brief reductions in
visibility to IFR and ceilings to MVFR are possible. This
activity should dissipate after 02Z with all sites VFR
thereafter through midday Monday. Winds will slowly abate
overnight as well, with gusts dropping off below 15kts after
06Z. For Monday, VFR flight conditions will prevail in the
morning, but ceilings will trend to MVFR at KMSS and KSLK for
the afternoon in advance of an approaching warm front. Winds
will shift from the NW to SSW, persisting in the 5-10kt range.
Outlook...
Monday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SN.
Tuesday: Mainly MVFR and IFR, with areas VFR possible. Likely SN.
Tuesday Night: Mainly MVFR, with areas IFR possible. Definite SN.
Wednesday: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. NO SIG WX.
Christmas Day: VFR. Slight chance SHSN.
Thursday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance
SHSN.
Friday: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Chance SN, Chance
RA.
&&
.MARINE...
A Lake Wind Advisory remains in effect for Lake Champlain today
(Sunday). Winds will remain dangerous to small craft, with
values west 20-25kts and gusts to 30kts through the balance of
the daylight hours. The highest waves will be focused from
Colchester Point to Burlington this afternoon as winds continue
to be westerly and northwesterly. Winds will shift more
northwesterly and lighten overnight, dropping to around and
below 10 KTs by morning. Waves should drop from the 1-3 foot
range this afternoon to around and below a foot by tomorrow
morning.
&&
.EQUIPMENT...
NOAA Weather Radio station WXM-44, transmitting from Mt.
Ascutney, Vermont, on frequency 162.475 MHz is non-operational
at this time. NWS technicians have diagnosed the problem, but
repairs will likely not be able to occur for quite some time due
to circumstances beyond our control. Therefore, the time of
return to service is currently unknown. The following NOAA
Weather Radio transmitters may be able to provide service during
this outage: WWG 50 from Burke Mtn, VT at 162.425 MHz and WNG
546 from Hanover, NH at 162.525 MHz.
The Colchester Reef meteorological station is out of service.
This site is not serviced by the NWS and there isn`t an
estimated return to service at present. Use extra caution when
navigating the broad waters of Lake Champlain. Please contact us
if you observe winds significantly deviating from the
recreational forecast.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Myskowski
NEAR TERM...Lahiff/Myskowski
SHORT TERM...Myskowski
LONG TERM...Neiles
AVIATION...Lahiff
MARINE...Team BTV
EQUIPMENT...Team BTV
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