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Current conditions from King Hill
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  Tuesday March 19, 2024

 

NWS Area Forecast Discussion


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000
FXUS61 KBTV 190731
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
331 AM EDT Tue Mar 19 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Active weather will continue through the rest of this week as a
series of low pressure systems bring several rounds of
precipitation. Another round of showers will spread over the region
later today into tonight, falling primarily as snow. This activity
will exit to the east overnight, but another system will quickly
follow on Wednesday, bringing more rain and snow. This wintry mix
will last into Thursday, then we`ll see a brief break on Friday.
Another strong system may bring additional rain and snow to the
region late Saturday into Sunday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 330 AM EDT Tuesday...Stubborn snow showers will linger through
the early morning hours, remaining most focused along and just west
of the spine of the Greens. This activity will gradually shift
eastward around daybreak, coming to an end shortly after the morning
commute. The higher summits should pick up 4-8 inches total, with
mid-slopes seeing 1 to 4 inches. An inch or less is expected
elsewhere.

Once this morning`s snow exits to the east, we`ll see a brief break
and even perhaps some sunshine here and there. However, our next
system will rapidly approach from the west as low pressure
develops over the Great Lakes, being proceeded by its warm
front. As this front lifts northeastward toward our region,
another round of showers will spread from west to east late
today and overnight tonight. Although temperatures will range
from near freezing to around 40F, precipitation should fall
primarily as snow due to wet- bulbing of the column, bringing
temperatures down closer to freezing in most spots. Snow may
have a tough time sticking to roads during the day, especially
if they`ve been treated and/or seen some sunshine, but
accumulation will likley start after dark. Snow showers will
persist overnight, especially over the higher terrain. Lows
dropping into the mid 20s and lower 30s means accumulation will
be possible. All in all, accumulation for today and tonight will
range from just a dusting from the Champlain Valley eastward
(although upwards of 2 inches on the higher summits of the
Greens), to 1 to 3 inches in the southern St Lawrence Valley and
into the Adirondacks.

The upper low associated with the aforementioned surface low will
swing down through eastern Ontario late Tuesday night into
Wednesday, bringing along a cold pool aloft. Combined with
steepening lapse rates and SB CAPEs upwards of 150 J/Kg. Hence
expect snow showers would be more convective in nature, producing
brief heavy precipitation and gusty winds. Still expect
precipitation will take the form of snow in most areas, though the
wider valleys could see rain showers at times as temperatures
are expected to warm into the lower/mid 40s in those areas.
Still, those areas that do see snow could pick up a quick
accumulation, especially the higher summits. An additional 1 to
3 inches will be possible there, with lower elevations getting a
dusting at best.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
As of 330 AM EDT Tuesday...A mid-winter type of weather pattern will
be present during this period as a lobe of bitterly cold air gets
advected southeastward behind a diffuse cold front. While the core
of this airmass thankfully will remain in central Canada, a squeeze
play between moderately strong high pressure to our west and low
pressure to our east will make for a blustery period with frequent
gusts 25 to 35 MPH. The windy conditions will be aided by steep,
superadiabatic low level lapse rates, consistent with a cold and dry
environment. That being said, upslope flow will squeeze out some
snow showers considering sufficient 925 - 850 millibar relative
humidity and 850 millibar temperatures falling into the -13 to -17
Celsius range, suggesting some of this snow could have extreme fluff
factor (such as 30:1). Note that this regime also greatly favors
unblocked flow, so expect snow primarily along the mountain spines
and downwind as we move into the daytime hours after some initial
western slope accumulations. Therefore, PoPs quickly drop off during
Thursday morning in most locations aside from north central and
northeastern Vermont. Some accumulating snow may continue in the
Northeast Kingdom into Thursday night. The aforementioned steep low
level lapse rates and drying air mass will cause high temperatures
to be strongly elevationally dependent, with deep valleys expected
to reach into the 30s, while the mountains stay in the teens, and
mainly mid and upper 20s elsewhere. Continuous cold air advection
will keep conditions breezy into Thursday night, yielding
unseasonably cold wind chills in the single digits above and below
zero.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 330 AM EDT Tuesday...Another cold day is expected on Friday,
although it should be more pleasant as winds will be much lighter
than on Thursday as a ridge of high pressure moves across the
region. By late in the day, a light northeast wind may develop in
the St. Lawrence Valley, a harbinger of our next weather maker. The
latest data suggests widespread precipitation, mainly in the form of
snow, may begin late Friday night and linger through at least the
first half of Saturday. The GEFS in particular is rather bullish
with the idea that an interior low quickly gives way to a coastal
storm that would have a favorable track, when combined with the
antecedent cold air in the region, for a heavy, wet snowfall. An
ensemble cluster featuring better jet dynamics with a deeper
upstream trough, consistent with 2/3rds of GEFS members, produces an
storm total snowfall averaging 7" or greater for most of Vermont and
northern New York assuming a 10:1 ratio, which may be a reasonable
first guess. Keep in mind there is an unusually large discrepancy
between global model camps right now. The EPS continues to show
little or no phasing of the southern and northern stream systems
that leads to only a light snowfall during about the same timeframe.
Even within the GEFS, subtle differences in storm track make a
massive difference in snowfall footprints and precipitation type
such as cold rain versus wet snow. Overall, while forecast
confidence on a significant event is low at this time, confidence of
some precipitation is high and we can expect a further increasing
trend in PoPs, now mainly in the 50- 70% range between 2 AM and 2 PM
Saturday. Beyond this potential system, we may see another
reinforcing shot of unseasonably cold air for Sunday; if so, some
more snow showers could be expected. Then Monday through Tuesday the
upper level pattern will feature meridional flow with western US
troughing, signaling a return to our regularly scheduled above
normal temperatures as soon as Tuesday with potential wet weather by
midweek.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Through 06Z Wednesday...Although most terminals are currently
MVFR this evening, variable flight categories will be possible,
especially early in the TAF period as scattered snow showers
affect the region. Overall, expect MVFR to continue to prevail,
though VFR at KPBG, and IFR more likely at KEFK and KMPV. Given
variability of observations over the past few hours, have
utilized TEMPO groups at most sites through 08z-10z. Outside of
snow showers, a mix of VFR and MVFR ceilings will persist until
around 12Z when most terminals should trend towards VFR. Winds
overnight will generally be less than 10 knots from the west,
becoming gusty after 15Z.

Outlook...

Wednesday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR and IFR possible. Likely
SHRA, Likely SHSN.
Wednesday Night: VFR. Chance SHSN.
Thursday: VFR. Chance SHSN.
Thursday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Friday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Friday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHSN.
Saturday: Mainly MVFR, with local VFR possible. Chance SHSN,
Chance SHRA.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Hastings
NEAR TERM...Hastings
SHORT TERM...Kutikoff
LONG TERM...Kutikoff
AVIATION...Hastings


 
 
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