FXUS61 KBTV 020845
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
445 AM EDT Thu Jul 2 2020
Seasonably warm to locally hot weather is expected across the
region over the next five days. Chances of showers and
thunderstorms will exist later today into Friday as a weak cold
front crosses the area, then again this coming Sunday and
possibly by the middle of next week.
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 312 AM EDT Thursday...No large-scale changes expected for
today as ridging builds in from the north with warm to locally
hot weather in the mid 80s to lower 90s. A weak backdoor cold
front will approach from the north late in the day into this
evening which will support formation of scattered or widely
scattered convection, mainly across northern counties as deeper
zone of northwesterly flow aloft bridges across the region.
Despite some differences in today`s modelled sounding profiles,
the overall idea is for a deeply mixed boundary layer with steep
low to mid level lapse rates. This would support localized
strong gusty winds with any deeper convective cores. As such
I`ve introduced gusty wind wording into the forecast for our
northern counties later today into early evening which lines up
well with most recent SPC SWODY1 marginal risk area.
Scattered to widely scattered convection continues into tonight,
though wanes in coverage over time as aforementioned weak front
slips across the area. Best focus appears to set up across northern
NY counties into the southwestern half of VT. Low temperatures to
remain mild in the 60s to locally around 70 in milder Champlain
Some modest changes to the forecast on Friday as the backdoor front
stalls in a northwest to southeast orientation to our immediate
southwest. An additional impulse in the northwesterly flow aloft
will approach by later in the morning into the afternoon. This,
combined with broadly diffluent upper flow and modest
instability across southwestern zones should allow convection to
reblossom across southern zones accordingly. PoPs have been
increased in this area, with progressively drier conditions as you
progress toward the Canadian border, especially north and east.
Temperatures will reflect these trends and with larger coverage of
clouds southern zones will actually be cooler as highs mainly hold
in the 70s. Further north, aforementioned drier weather and partial
sunshine should allow readings to climb into the upper 70s to lower
80s in many spots.
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 445 AM EDT Thursday...Friday night will see cooler temperatures
as the backdoor front with associated showers push south of the CWA.
Before drier air can move into the region, areas of patchy fog will
persist into the predawn hours. Some of the favored locations can
expect some spots of dense fog. Independence Day looks to be a
dry and pleasant day with minimal clouds and high temperatures
in the low to mid 80s. .
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 445 AM EDT Thursday...The long term will see slightly above
normal temperatures in the mid 80s on Sunday and gradual warming
each day through the week. A day or two with temps in the 90s in
valleys is not out of the question later in the week. Along with the
warmer temps, northwesterly flow with a series of weak shortwaves
into next week will lead to some chances for spotty showers and
thunderstorms each afternoon, with Wednesday seeing the best chance
for precipitation as a weak cold front moves through the region.
Despite this, mid week onward will also see dew points increase
leading to some muggy and slightly uncomfortable days in the back
half of next week.
.AVIATION /09Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Through 06Z Friday...A mix of flight conditions through sunrise
due to areas of dense fog and light winds. Fog and IFR/LIFR
conditions most prevalent at KMPV and KPBG through 11/12Z, with
only modest confidence at KRUT/KSLK. Elsewhere, including BTV,
VFR to prevail overnight. After 12Z VFR expected as light
south/southwest flow around 5 kts, trends northwesterly by
afternoon. Approach of weak cold front from the north may spark
a few/sct t-storms which may affect northern terminals after
22Z. While an isolated threat, brief gusty winds will be possible
with any stronger cores with localized turbulence and tops to
Friday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA.
Friday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHRA, Patchy BR.
Independence Day: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Saturday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Sunday: VFR. Chance SHRA, Chance TSRA.
Sunday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA.
Monday: VFR. Chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA.