125
FXUS61 KBTV 140633
AFDBTV
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
133 AM EST Sun Dec 14 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
A clipper will bring some light snow through the tonight, with
locally heavier snow in parts of northern New York and in the higher
terrain. Another clipper will bring more light snow later Monday
into Monday night. A warming trend will lead to the potential of
mixed precipitation types towards the end of the week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 133 AM EST Sunday...Some light snow is beginning to spread
into southern Vermont, while a broken band of lake effect snow is
making a few flakes fly across northern areas. The lake effect
declines as the night goes on, but the light snow over southern
reaches should become a bit more widespread. The snow will
eventually exit during the day. Dry weather lasts until evening,
although a stray flurry is possible, particularly in some of the
mountains. Some clearing is even possible in the far northern areas
in the afternoon. The clouds quickly return in the evening as
northwesterly flow strengthens. Moisture will return to the snow
growth zone in the evening, which due to cold air advection, will
only be around and slightly above the surface. The moist northwest
flow will therefore cause some upslope snow to develop, particularly
along the spine of the northern Green Mountains. The froude numbers
will quickly drop during the afternoon and evening, and flow will
head into the blocked range. The saturated DGZ will be quite
important, as the depth of the moisture will be shallow. Therefore,
the snow formation will still be quite efficient. In general the
extent of the DGZ looks to be around 5,000 feet or so. The one
caveat here is the extent of the moisture, but overall, several
hours of upslope snow should still occur. Totals in the 1-4 inch
range look likely. The low froude numbers, between 0.25 to 0.5,
indicate that the accumulating snow should be able to lower into
some of the immediate Champlain Valley. The upslope will gradually
taper off on Monday, though lingering clouds should last longer in
most areas. After the upslope ends, the next clipper arrives in the
afternoon and evening. This clipper will gradually spread some light
snow from west to east.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 133 AM EST Sunday...Some scattered snow showers will continue
going through Monday night. Some lake enhancement will be possible
over parts of St. Lawrence County Monday evening, but flow will
become too westerly quite quickly and this will cause any of the
remaining lake effect showers to shift south of the region. Some
upslope snow is briefly possible on the backside of the clipper, but
it would be light and brief. Because the region will be on the
northern edge of the lake effect, totals will be low due to its
short residence time. Parts of St. Lawrence County could maybe see
between 2-4 inches, with totals dropping quickly to the north and
east. A warming trend begins Tuesday, with highly amplified ridging
across the western part of the country quickly moving east. However,
temperatures will stay below freezing during the day. Despite strong
warm air advection, winds will not be overly high, with peak gusts
in the 10-20 mph range. Some sunshine will occur, especially in the
lower Connecticut River Valley, but some high clouds will move in
during the afternoon ahead of the next clipper.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 133 AM EST Sunday...Tuesday night will be dry but a low
pressure system will pass well north of our area on Wednesday, and
some light rain and snow showers are anticipated mainly across our
northern zones as trailing front and upper level shortwave pushes
east across the region. Some showers will then linger into Wednesday
night on northwesterly upslope flow. Next system will move
precipitation into our area Thursday night into Friday. The surface
low and mid level low will both pass north of our region again, and
the NBM is carrying categorical probabilities of precipitation for
Thursday night with likely on Thursday and Friday. For now am
mentioning just rain and snow with this system. As we get closer can
reevaluate to see if there is a chance for mixed precipitation as
well. This system is pretty strong synoptically and with good
forcing, so expect the precipitation to be widespread. Heading into
the weekend, yet another low pressure system will pass to our north
bringing more precipitation. Temperatures through the long term look
to be warmer than seasonal normals, with the most mild day being
Thursday and into Thursday night.
&&
.AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Through 06Z Monday...Currently conditions are VFR, though with MVFR
ceilings at KMPV. Winds 5 knots or less or even variable as flow
begins shifting to the west and northwest. Some very light snow will
lift up from the north. Areas like KRUT and KSLK will see ceilings
fall towards 2500 ft agl. KRUT is the most likely to see light snow
and noted 3SM. There is lower confidence for KSLK, KBTV, and KMPV,
and so have posted a PROB30 given uncertainty how far north snow
makes it. Light snow will pivot back southeast as a boundary
continues farther south about 15z, with northwest winds increasing
to 5 to 9 knots, and this will also bring improving ceilings. After
22z, winds will become 5 knots or less.
Outlook...
Monday: VFR. Chance SHSN.
Monday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance SHSN.
Tuesday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday: MVFR. Chance SHSN, Chance SHRA.
Wednesday Night: Mainly MVFR, with local VFR possible. NO SIG WX.
Thursday: VFR. Chance RA, Slight chance SN.
&&
.EQUIPMENT...
NOAA Weather Radio station WXM-44, transmitting from Mt.
Ascutney, Vermont, on frequency 162.475 MHz is non-operational
at this time. NWS technicians have diagnosed the problem, but
repairs will likely not be able to occur for quite some time due
to circumstances beyond our control. Therefore, the time of
return to service is currently unknown. The following NOAA
Weather Radio transmitters may be able to provide service during
this outage: WWG 50 from Burke Mtn, VT at 162.425 MHz and WNG
546 from Hanover, NH at 162.525 MHz.
Equipment malfunctions at the Colchester Reef meteorological
station will likely leave it inoperable for an extended period
of time. This site is not serviced by the NWS. Technicians do
not currently have an estimated return to service for this
station. Use extra caution when navigating the broad waters of
Lake Champlain, and please contact us if you observe winds
significantly deviating from the forecast.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Myskowski
NEAR TERM...Myskowski
SHORT TERM...Myskowski
LONG TERM...Neiles
AVIATION...Neiles
EQUIPMENT...Team BTV
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