316
FXUS61 KBTV 211142
AFDBTV
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
642 AM EST Fri Nov 21 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
Scattered, light precipitation is expected for much of the area
today ahead of a weak cold front. A brief wintry mix will be
possible, but most showers will be liquid aside from high
elevations. Following a cooler and dry Saturday, a light
snowfall is becoming more likely Sunday afternoon into Monday
morning for much of the area. A warm front will follow with
mainly rain on Tuesday, and unsettled weather will continue into
Thanksgiving.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 130 AM EST Friday...Today a vigorous upper level wave,
currently over the Upper Peninsula of Michigan, will move east-
southeastward, grazing the North Country and northern Vermont.
Looking upstream, light radar returns out ahead of the wave are
present in southern Ontario and adjacent Quebec, with more
substantial showers far to the north. Think some virga, or brief
light precipitation in the form of very light snow or wintry
mix, will sweep eastward through our region early this morning,
followed quickly by slightly more robust shower activity tied to
the surface trough that approaches with the shortwave. These
showers will arrive early enough in the day in northern New York
to support pockets of freezing rain, with perhaps a glaze of
ice occurring in the northern St. Lawrence Valley and
northwestern slopes of the Adirondacks in central Franklin
County into far western Clinton County, between about 7 and 10
AM. For any given location freezing rain should be brief and
light, but given its potential impact, expect a Special Weather
Statement could be needed based on radar and temperature trends.
Otherwise, mainly a light rain event with scattered showers,
especially in northern portions of the region, still is on track
with high elevation snow generally above 2500 feet. Precipitation
amounts still look fairly orographic with a coating to 2" where it
snows, and most of Vermont`s valley locations will see little if any
precipitation, through the period. Lack of rain, where even 90th
percentile rainfall amounts are mainly 0.1" or less, will be related
to limited depth of moisture, especially so in central and southern
Vermont, and shadowing effects of 30-35 knots of west-southwesterly
flow just below ridgetop level. Note humidity profiles also look
shallow relative to the snow growth zone even in our northern areas,
so would imagine when precipitation is particularly light it could
be a drizzle rather than rain/snow, especially tonight as drier air
aloft works in behind the system`s weak cold front. It will cross
the region between roughly 5 and 10 PM from west to east, with
surface winds turning south/southwesterly to westerly.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 130 AM EST Friday...A weak ridge of high pressure will
build in late tonight and persist through tomorrow night. It
does not look like it will build right over the region, unlike
the previous high pressure area that lead to a lot of valley
stratus and fog; light winds at night aloft should minimize fog
development. Daytime conditions will relatedly be slightly
breezy tomorrow, generally westerly in northern New York and
northwesterly in Vermont with some terrain-driven fluctuations
given their low magnitude. Thereafter, chances for a light snow
event have continued to increase for Sunday, especially into
Sunday night (see Long Term for more with regards to
accumulations). Model guidance has a good consensus showing the
next shortwave trough, a weak clipper-like system, diving
southeastward in the northern jet stream with enough amplitude
that we get plenty of large scale lift and moisture out ahead of
it. Precipitation may blossom as early as Sunday morning,
especially in the western Adirondacks. By evening, some snow
could extend into northwestern Vermont as well. With light winds
aloft and a fairly deep saturated snow growth zone, preliminary
snow characteristics would be fairly fluffy despite marginal
surface temperatures. Perhaps lowest elevations would see rain
showers with the precipitation as there is important spread in
temperatures aloft that would lead to boundary layer issues for
rain versus snow, but we`ll be able to fine tune this concern in
future forecasts. Temperatures will be sensitive to
precipitation occurring, associated with wet bulb cooling
effects, but generally lowest elevations will probably top out
in the upper 30s with low to mid 30s elsewhere.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 1256 AM EST Friday...A modest shortwave trough embedded in
northwesterly mid-level flow will bring the potential for some light
snow shower activity on Sunday night. Generally expecting a coating
to 1" snowfall accumulation in time for the early AM commute, with
1-2" across the summit elevations. Temperatures generally 25-30F for
overnight lows.
Surface high pressure building in by Monday afternoon should bring
an end to any lingering mountain snow showers, along with partial
clearing across much of the North Country. With continued light NW
winds, should see temperatures near seasonal levels, with Monday
afternoon high temperatures in the upper 30s to lower 40s.
Following a good radiational cooling night on Monday night, should
see a developing return flow with S-SW low-level winds. An
approaching warm frontal zone should allow precipitation to
overspread northern NY and Vermont by Tuesday afternoon. Could see
an early mix of snow/sleet, but trending to mostly rain based on
latest deterministic GFS/ECMWF/GEM solns. Temperatures warm into the
low-mid 40s by Tuesday afternoon, which should limit any winter
travel concerns to just briefly at the onset of precipitation. Will
continue to monitor in case precipitation arrives earlier Tuesday
morning/pre-dawn hours, when temperatures would be closer to
freezing.
Once the warm front moves through, looking at mostly cloudy and mild
conditions for Wednesday, with highs potentially in the upper 40s to
lower 50s. Possibility of the first 50F temperature since November
8th at BTV based on latest indications.
Deep upper level trough approaching from the Ohio Valley may bring
additional widespread rainfall for Wednesday night into Thanksgiving
day. Pattern supports mainly a rain event, but could see some higher
elevation rain/snow mix, especially towards the end of the
precipitation event as a strong cold front brings a sharp decrease
in temperatures aloft late on Thanksgiving Day. Still plenty of time
to keep an eye, but for travel plans, unsettled and wet conditions
are generally favored. Highs on Thursday generally in the 40-45F
range.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Through 12Z Saturday...A mid-level trough crossing northern
portions of the forecast area will bring a very light wintry mix
12-15Z across the northern TAF sites, with ceilings lowering to
BKN- OVC025-035 at times. May see a few brief rain showers
later this morning into the afternoon hours, with conditions
mainly MVFR to VFR. Again, precipitation is expected to be
light. Additionally, a small pocket of LLWS is possible this
afternoon as west winds at 2000 ft agl reach about 35 to 40
knots between 17Z and 22Z following passage of the trough axis.
Light winds at BTV become southerly during the daylight hours,
mainly S10-12kts with a few gusts to 18kts. Winds should shift
light westerly after sunset.
Outlook...
Saturday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. NO SIG WX.
Saturday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. NO SIG WX.
Sunday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance SHSN, Chance
SHRA.
Sunday Night: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Chance SHSN.
Monday: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. Slight chance SHSN.
Monday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday: VFR. Chance RA.
&&
.EQUIPMENT...
NOAA Weather Radio station WXM-44, transmitting from Mt.
Ascutney, Vermont, on frequency 162.475 MHz is non-operational
at this time. NWS technicians have diagnosed the problem, but
repairs will likely not be able to occur for quite some time due
to circumstances beyond our control. Therefore, the time of
return to service is currently unknown. The following NOAA
Weather Radio transmitters may be able to provide service during
this outage: WWG 50 from Burke Mtn, VT at 162.425 MHz and WNG
546 from Hanover, NH at 162.525 MHz.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Kutikoff
NEAR TERM...Kutikoff
SHORT TERM...Kutikoff
LONG TERM...Banacos
AVIATION...Banacos
EQUIPMENT...Team BTV
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