300
FXUS61 KBTV 091929
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
329 PM EDT Thu Jul 9 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
As of 329 PM EDT Thursday...

No significant changes. Showers and thunderstorms are ongoing
mainly over northernmost portions of New York and northern
Vermont, with an isolated stronger storm or two expected.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
As of 329 PM EDT Thursday...

1. Showers with scattered thunderstorms will continue through
this evening, becoming fewer and less heavy overnight into
tomorrow. Localized heavy rain and a few instances of damaging
wind gusts will be possible.

2. Following a beautiful weekend, chances for showers and
thunderstorms return next week, primarily in the Tuesday or
Wednesday timeframe, associated with a short period of hot weather.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
As of 252 PM EDT Thursday...

KEY MESSAGE 1: A quasi-stationary front is situated near the
International Border oriented west to east this afternoon.
A pre-frontal trough is promoting numerous showers, focused
across northern New York and gradually expanding across northern
Vermont through this evening. As of this hour, surface based
instability has reached into the 1300-2000 J/kg range across
western Vermont and much of northern New York, which has been
sufficient for isolated to scattered thunderstorm development.
The severe threat favors weak small bowing segments producing
damaging winds; otherwise heavy rain and lightning are expected
to be the primary impacts with thunderstorms.

Rainfall rates have been observed near 1"/hour in southern
Ontario upstream from our area early this afternoon. Noting that
these showers are following the mean flow vector, training
cells over northern New York near the International Border will
lead to locally heavy rainfall amounts. Pwats in the range of
1.8 - 2" will be present through this evening across much of
northern New York and northwestern Vermont, in addition to deep
warm layer cloud depths. Given antecedent dryness and the lack
of persistence of heavy rainfall rates, we don`t think flash
flooding risk is high enough for concern, but cannot rule out an
isolated instance.

As we near July 10th, and with the potential for some
brief training storms today, we wanted to say this event is not
expected to be anywhere near the flooding potential of recent
years. While localized heavy rains will be possible, widespread
or damaging flooding potential is not expected. Showers look to
be progressive and should not sit over any one area even if
multiple rounds of showers are possible.

The cold front will slide southward into Friday morning just far
enough south of the area to minimize potential for additional
showers. Showers are possible in southern Vermont, with perhaps
some sprinkles and light showers until midday Friday. Behind
the front, cooler and drier northerly air will help temperatures
fall to the mid 70s to low 80s with dewpoints near 50 by
Saturday afternoon. Some fog may be possible in the usual river
valleys Friday night due to recent rains and clearing skies.

KEY MESSAGE 2: Following another extended tranquil and
comfortable weather period Saturday through Monday with
seasonable temperatures trending a bit warmer, active weather
returns sometime in the Tuesday to Wednesday period. The large
upper level ridge that will be responsible for extreme heat in
the northern Plains states will expand eastward Monday into
Tuesday to usher in hotter air into our region. Given the source
region, we aren`t expecting particularly humid air, however, and
the latest guidance would suggest just under Heat Advisory
criteria. The combination of this heat and strong signals for an
impressive cold front associated with a deep low pressure system
passing through eastern Canada will set the stage for organized
showers and thunderstorms. As of now, the risk of severe
thunderstorms is relatively low given uncertainty in the timing,
but the setup is favorable for good overlap of CAPE and shear.
The ECMWF and some other ML guidance is favoring Wednesday,
while the GFS and a multi-model blend favors late Tuesday. Stay
tuned!

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Through 18Z Friday...A few small showers have begun to develop in our
area. The primary line of instability is approaching Massena as of
18z. The front will move to the south and east later in the evening.
Most of the storms will stay in the northern half of our CWA, with
less activity south of Washington County. A few thunderstorms could
reach severe criteria, and could reduce visibility during the most
intense times. After the shower activity dwindles, patchy fog will
develop as some moisture will become trapped near the surface. The
rain totals won`t be enough for widespread or dense fog. At this
time, we anticipate primarily mvfr visibilities overnight.

Outlook...

Friday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Saturday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Saturday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Sunday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Sunday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Monday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Monday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
Tuesday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$

WHAT HAS CHANGED...Kutikoff
DISCUSSION...Danzig/Kutikoff
AVIATION...Langbauer