FXUS61 KBTV 220537
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Burlington VT
1237 AM EST Fri Feb 22 2019
Gusty westerly winds will shift to the northwest late this afternoon
before weakening after midnight night. While a few showers are
possible through the afternoon and evening hours, the areal coverage
will diminish as large scale high pressure builds into the region on
Friday. Expect more seasonable temperatures Friday and Saturday with
highs in the 30s and lows in the mid teens to mid 20s. The next
chance of precipitation comes late Saturday night and Sunday where a
mix of snow, freezing rain and sleet will be possible before
changing over to all rain during the afternoon hours on Sunday.
Strong and gusty southwesterly winds ranging from 25 to 40 mph will
develop on Sunday as a surface low tracks to our west. Much colder
air will move into the North Country on Monday and Tuesday with the
return of below normal temperatures to start the upcoming work week.
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 923 PM EST Thursday...Updated forecast to expand chc pops
across portions of the central/northern CPV, while continue the
mention of snow showers in the mtns thru 06z. The combination of
weak vort, better moisture, and sfc convergence from secondary
boundary dropping south has helped to enhance some light snow
shower activity. Vis at PBG has been down to 4sm with 6sm here
at BTV. Not anticipating much accumulation, maybe a dusting to
half an inch at most. Activity will quickly dissipate after
midnight as moisture and lift wane. Also, bumped hourly temps up
several degrees based on obs and made some minor adjustments to
the overnight low temps.
Previous discuss below:
A few breaks in the clouds have begun to develop across the
Champlain Valley this afternoon but these breaks are few and far
between. Nevertheless, temperatures have finally warmed into
the 40s in response to increased insolation. Looking at
observations across the forecast area, the strongest winds
currently reside in the Champlain Valley which is attributed to
the warmer temperatures at the surface. The warmer surface temps
have steepened low level lapse rates as temperatures aloft
begin to cool. This has helped and will continue to help mix
stronger winds down to the surface through the afternoon hours.
The gusty winds will likely continue through at least midnight
and possibly a few hours thereafter. With the continued cold air
advection, the low level lapse rates will remain steep enough
to mix winds down from between 3500 and 5000 ft. The core of
strong winds in the mixed layer will shift eastward through the
overnight hours and by Friday morning winds will generally be 10
mph or less.
There are still a few snow/rain showers residing across northern New
York and northern Vermont this afternoon with a weak deformation
zone situated across the region. Thanks to the dry-slot that
developed this morning, moisture has been lacking with has reduced
both areal coverage and intensity of any linger shower activity.
This deformation zone will dissipate after midnight with synoptic
scale ridging building across the region heading into Friday. In
addition, surface high pressure will be centered across the North
Country Friday afternoon which will reduce precipitation chances to
zero come Friday. Temperatures will be more seasonable Friday with
highs in the 30s and lows in the mid teens to mid 20s.
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 345 PM EST Thursday...Expect a quiet start to the weekend as broad
high pressure crests over the region. The nice weather will
come to an end during the overnight hours Saturday as the high
departs to the east. A deepening low pressure system will be
digging into the Great Lakes region Saturday evening lifting a
warm front and precipitation along with it late Saturday night
into Sunday morning. Southerly warm air advection should bring a
warm nose into Northern New York leading to some periods of
some mixed precipitation overnight before transitioning to all
rain by mid morning. Across Vermont it will be a different story
as we`ll have to wait and see how strong the coastal low
develops. The NAM really deepens that secondary low and forced
colder air in east of the Greens which will hold on to some
wintry precip well into the afternoon hours. I choose to offer a
solution sort of in between because the NAM is an outlier with
regards to the thermal profiles but I do agree with slightly
colder temperatures being more likely across eastern Vermont
where its notoriously hard to scour out cold temps. The general
consensus of medium ranged models is that the warm nose should
be somewhere between +2 to +4 and thats plenty enough to melt
any ice crystals aloft.
By the afternoon/early evening its a moot point as we`ll be sitting
solidly in the warm sector of the low pressure system and everywhere
should see rain. The amount of precip will heavily depend on a
strong southwesterly jet which will lead to shadowing across
portions of the Champlain Valley.
That strong low level jet will also be the forcing for some blustery
winds across the Saint Lawrence Valley Sunday and then across the
rest of the North Country Sunday night into Monday. Wind gusts
based off the latest round of guidance should solidly be in the 35-
40 mph range with a few gusts up to 45 possible.
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 345 PM EST Thursday...The work week should be relatively quiet with
a few weak impulses that pass through under broad upper level
cyclonic flow. Based on latest trends we should have a couple of
seasonable cool days to start with temperatures pushing back to
near normal by the middle of the week.
.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Through 06Z Saturday...Conditions will be largely VFR through
the period with some pesky snow showers sticking around for the
next few hours briefly dropping vsby to IFR/MVFR. Some gusty
winds still currently at KPBG and KMPV as well, but that should
be abating shortly as well with winds for the remainder of the
period trending light north/northwest less than 7kts.
Saturday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Saturday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance SN,
Likely FZRA, Likely PL.
Sunday: MVFR. Windy with gusts to 30 kt. Definite RA, Definite
Sunday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR and IFR possible. Windy
with gusts to 35 kt. Likely SHSN, Likely SHRA.
Monday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Windy with gusts to
35 kt. Chance SHSN.
Monday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHSN.
Tuesday: VFR. NO SIG WX.