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  Wednesday April 24, 2019

 

NWS Area Forecast Discussion


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FXUS61 KBTV 241719
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Burlington VT
119 PM EDT Wed Apr 24 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
Cooler and cloudy weather will prevail across the North Country
today with temperatures mainly in the 40s and 50s. Weak high
pressure provides the region with dry and slightly warmer
conditions for Thursday, before another widespread rain event
arrives Friday into Saturday, along with cooler temperatures,
which could result in some high elevation snow showers on
Saturday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 1008 AM EDT Wednesday...Not much change to the going
forecast. It looks like the main focus for shower activity has
shifted to the northern Greens based on latest radar trends but
the western slopes of the Adirondacks could still see rainfall
accumulations up to an inch today. Any mixed precipitation looks
to be confined to the higher elevations (above 2000 ft) as wet
bulb zero temperatures range from 35 to 36 degrees at 1500 ft
and closer to 40 degrees at sea level. It wouldn`t be surprising
to see Jay Peak or even Mt. Mansfield to see a dusting to maybe
an inch of snow today. Temperatures overall will be steady
state in the 40s throughout the day before dropping tonight into
the 30s.


Previous discussion below:
Water vapor shows potent s/w energy and associated ribbon of
deeper moisture that produce a period of rain showers last night
quickly advancing into eastern New England. Meanwhile, strong
subsidence/drying aloft is present across our cwa, but plenty of
moisture trapped below inversion is resulting in lots of
clouds. This moisture combined with upslope flow under moderate
925mb to 850mb caa will produce plenty of clouds across our fa
today. The best chances for a few showers will be in favorable
upslope regions of the northern Dacks into the mountains of
central/northern VT. I have placed likely pops in these areas,
but additional qpf will be generally under 0.10 inch, given the
lack of deep moisture. Temps will be tricky, as we are crntly
mild with readings in the 50s, but anticipate this values to
drop toward sunrise, as caa prevails. 925mb temps btwn 2-3c by
18z, while 850mb profiles fall below 0c, supporting highs mainly
in the 40s and l/m 50s. These temps, combined with breezy
southwest to west winds 15 to 30 mph will create a chill today.
Would not be surprised summits experience some snow shower
activity today, especially as Whiteface is down to 32f as of 4
AM.

Tonight into Thursday, weak 1014mb high pres and associated
ridging aloft builds into our cwa. This results in gradual
clearing especially downslope areas of the western
cpv...slv... and lower ct river valley. Temps will be tricky with
areas of clearing, but still some gradient, thinking upper
20s/lower 30s colder valleys to near 40f. Thursday will be dry
with temps rebounding back to normal values, supported by 925mb
temps of 8 to 10c.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
As of 333 AM EDT Wednesday...Brief ridging early Thursday night will
give way to our next low pressure system approaching from the west.
Increasing southwest flow ahead of the incoming upper trough will
usher deep moisture into the region. PWATs will exceed 1 inch across
much of the North Country by Friday afternoon, and this moisture
will interact with the slow moving cold front associated with the
upper trough. Rain will spread from southwest to northeast late
Thursday night into Friday morning, then continue much of the day
Friday before ending west to east late Friday night as best moisture
shifts east and a secondary cold frontal passes through. Rainfall
totals of a third up to once inch can be expected. Also, anticipate
gusty southeast winds to become gusty Friday afternoon as low
pressure develops across NY/PA/NJ. Lows Thursday night will be in
the upper 30s to lower 40s, with some mid 30s possible in the usual
cold locations. Friday temperatures will top out in the 50s across
the region, then dropping into the mid 30s to low 40s Friday night
behind the cold front.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 333 AM EDT Wednesday...Remaining cool and unsettled for the
weekend into early next week as a series of shortwave troughs and
frontal passages bring shots of cold air and precipitation. The
secondary cold front will cross the region on Saturday, bringing
cold air advection on brisk northwest winds. Showers will gradually
wind down through the day as moisture axis exits to the east.
Saturday night will be chilly but dry with lows in the lower to mid
30s, possibly dipping down into the 20s in the Adirondacks and
Northeast Kingdom. A second shortwave pushes through on Sunday,
bringing yet more showers and a reinforcing shot of cold air Sunday
night. Showers will transition to wrap-around upslope by Monday
morning, and with temperatures once again dropping back into the
30s, wouldn`t be surprised to see some snow in the mountains. Monday
should be mostly dry with the exception of some lingering showers in
the mountains. Uncertainty grows thereafter as longer-range guidance
still having a hard time agreeing on the handling of our next
shortwave. Have stayed close to a model blend for the end of the
forecast period. Temperatures will remain below seasonal normal
through the period.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Through 18Z Thursday...Cloud cover remains thoroughly entrenched
across the North Country this afternoon with ceilings ranging
from 800 ft near the Adirondacks to 4000 ft in the Champlain
Valley. All sites, including the lower terminals across northern
New York will trend toward MVFR this evening with ceilings
between 1500 and 2500 ft expected through Thursday morning. VFR
conditions will then develop by late morning on Thursday with
mostly sunny skies expected in the afternoon. The forecasted
gusty winds have been slow to develop this afternoon with ample
cloud cover but sites are now beginning to show some gusts, so
would expected gusty winds from 20Z to 00Z in the realm to 20 to
25 knots from the west/northwest. Shower activity has been
largely confined across northern Vermont but went ahead and left
VCSH in for KPBG, KBTV and KSLK with those locations most
likely to see a stray shower over the next few hours.

Outlook...

Thursday Night: VFR. Chance RA.
Friday: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. Definite RA.
Friday Night: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Likely RA,
Chance SHRA.
Saturday: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. Chance SHRA.
Saturday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
Sunday: VFR. Chance SHRA.
Sunday Night: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. Chance SHRA,
Chance SHSN.
Monday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Slight chance SHRA.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Taber
NEAR TERM...Clay/Taber
SHORT TERM...Hastings
LONG TERM...Hastings
AVIATION...Clay


 
 
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