377
FXUS61 KBTV 260659
AFDBTV
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
159 AM EST Fri Dec 26 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
Frigid conditions will ease slightly through the day and some
light snow will fall tonight. The severity of cold will lessen
through the weekend, with higher elevations especially trending
milder through the weekend, setting the stage for chances for
freezing rain early next week. Blustery and cold weather with
snow shower chances will follow for the middle of next week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 159 AM EST Friday...
* Frigid conditions today. Significant snow will miss our
region tonight; expect a very light and fluffy snow primarily
in south central Vermont and most of northern New York mainly
south/west of Clinton and northern Franklin counties. Brief
light snow may fall elsewhere, with lowest chances in
northeastern Vermont.
Early today temperatures are perhaps even colder than anticipated,
as most locations saw skies clear out allowing for strong
radiational cooling with our fresh snow. The exceptions for clear
skies continue to be much of northeastern Vermont, pockets of the
Adirondack region, and most prominently a large lake-effect band of
clouds off of Lake Champlain affecting much of western Chittenden,
Addison, and Rutland counties this morning. As low level winds
relax, the extent of these clouds should contract towards the lake
and eventually as temperatures at inversion height moderate, the
clouds will dissipate.
A 1027 millibar high pressure area will be largely anchored over the
Ottawa Valley this morning, funneling weak cold air advection
to keep warming slow today in spite of sunshine. Sun will become
increasingly filtered as high altitude clouds overspread the
area and thicken during the day. Temperatures by afternoon may
struggle to approach double digits, but will continue to slowly
climb the remainder of the day as the air mass moderates
concurrent with the high pressure area weakening/retreating to
the northeast ahead of an incoming low pressure area and chances
for snow.
The 00Z model guidance generally shows a similar scenario as our
previous forecast, clustered closely with similar footprints and
timing of snow for our region. Will note only small shifts farther
north/east or south/west are plausible and still exist amongst
models which will impact snowfall amounts. Regardless, top end
amounts in our southern areas per wettest scenarios are only about
3", so we are not looking at impactful snowfall especially given
overnight/weekend timing and the expected fluffy snow character.
Forecast soundings in places like Rutland show a very deep
isothermal cloud layer with weak upward motion that is conducive to
dendrites/low density snow crystals, especially with fairly light
winds aloft and surface temperatures only in the middle teens. More
interesting will be how far north and east measurable snowfall
amounts make it, with places like Stowe realistically having
anything from just a trace of snow to 1" for this event.
Onset of light snow is most likely around 7 PM-9 PM in our region,
although progress north and east of southern St. Lawrence County may
be slow with abundant low level dry air filtering south of the
polar high pressure area hanging tough in southern Quebec. Even
with light precipitation, with southern portions of the region
should see moderate snowfall rates, around 0.5"/hour snowfall
rates, given expected high snow to liquid ratios averaging near
18:1. Current indications for timing of this steadier snow is
about 9 PM to midnight in northern New York, again with some
uncertainty on how far north and east it progresses, and
midnight to 3 AM in south central Vermont. End time for snow
largely looks to be before daybreak, last in south
central/eastern portions of Vermont, but will be sensitive to
the track of the system. With the 700 millibar low tracking a
little farther north, for instance, light snow could linger a
bit longer in Vermont.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 156 AM EST Friday...
*No significant weather. Increasingly inverted temperatures are
anticipated as higher summits rise above freezing on Sunday
and valleys remain sub-freezing.
A rare extended period of ridging/strongly anticyclonic flow is in
store for the weekend will keep precipitation chances nil. Sunny
skies and seasonably cold weather is expected for Saturday. The
position of a large area of high pressure and upper level ridge will
allow for steady warming aloft and cold low level conditions as
winds remain light northerly through Sunday morning. As a result,
clear skies and dry air will support seasonably cold conditions
Saturday night while our mountains warm. By Sunday daybreak, we
could be looking at elevations above 3,000 feet near freezing while
valleys are in the single digits above zero. While diurnal heating
will allow temperatures to moderate during the day, shallow
inversion height will limit warming with afternoon temperatures
generally reaching only into the low to mid 20s in most locations in
northern Vermont and New York, except milder in the western
Adirondacks given the combination of the inverted temperature
pattern and some light easterly winds developing.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 156 AM EST Friday...We still remain on track to see a classic
setup for transient, freezing rain as an intensifying low pressure
system tracks to our west with a retreating, cool high pressure
system to our east. There is an increasing consensus of a mainly
freezing rain/rain scenario Sunday night into Monday. Actually the
trend has gotten slightly cooler so perhaps a bit more sleet at the
onset in Nrn VT, esp NE VT.
850mb temps are largely above 0C by onset of precipitation except NE
VT.
Currently...it still looks like pcpn will hold off until ard/aft 00z
Mon in northern NY and after 03z in VT.
Winter Weather Advisories are likely going to be needed areawide for
Sunday night-early Monday. Preliminary thoughts for ice amounts in
the range of 0.1" to 0.25" of flat ice with perhaps locally up to
0.5". There will be some locations in southeastern St. Lawrence
County that may see less due to more warming at low-levels and the
international border in NY may see those higher localized amounts.
Travel impacts are expected due to ice covered, slippery roads with
a low to possibly moderate chance of utility impacts where amounts
approach 0.5" but still worth monitoring the next few days.
SFC low and front move through the area Monday afternoon with
falling temperatures in increasing cold WNW winds for ptype to
changeover to snow showers with the main snow shower activity being
across northern areas and favorable WNW mountains Monday night-
Tuesday. Strong 850mb with cold air advection will allow good mixing
of winds thus windy late Monday through Tuesday night.
A weak shortwave and surface reflection are expected Wednesday with
more snow showers that may linger into New Years Eve plans. Nothing
to impactful but worth monitoring if traveling is in your plans.
&&
.AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Through 06Z Saturday...A 1032mb arctic high pres near Hudson
Bay will continue to nose south into our taf sites overnight
into Friday. Gusty winds have abated somewhat and will continue
to do so early this morning with generally less than 10 kts
today.
Still some stubborn low clouds trapped under inversion but that
should break by daybreak. VFR with high to middle clouds
advancing ahead of next system that will travel south-southwest
of our area. NY sites and Champlain Vly will be on the fringe
of any -sn activity but not until aft 00z with possible 2-3sm br
especially for KSLK.
Outlook...
Saturday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Saturday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Sunday: VFR. Slight chance FZRA.
Sunday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Definite
FZRA.
Monday: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. Windy with gusts to 30 kt.
Definite SHRA, Definite SHSN, Definite RA, Definite FZRA.
Monday Night: Mainly MVFR, with areas IFR possible. Windy with
gusts to 30 kt. Likely SHSN.
Tuesday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance SHSN.
&&
.EQUIPMENT...
NOAA Weather Radio station WXM-44, transmitting from Mt.
Ascutney, Vermont, on frequency 162.475 MHz is non-operational
at this time. NWS technicians have diagnosed the problem, but
repairs will likely not be able to occur for quite some time due
to circumstances beyond our control. Therefore, the time of
return to service is currently unknown. The following NOAA
Weather Radio transmitters may be able to provide service during
this outage: WWG 50 from Burke Mtn, VT at 162.425 MHz and WNG
546 from Hanover, NH at 162.525 MHz.
The Colchester Reef meteorological station is out of service.
This site is not serviced by the NWS and there isn`t an
estimated return to service at present. Use extra caution when
navigating the broad waters of Lake Champlain. Please contact us
if you observe winds significantly deviating from the
recreational forecast.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Kutikoff
NEAR TERM...Kutikoff
SHORT TERM...Kutikoff
LONG TERM...SLW
AVIATION...SLW
EQUIPMENT...Team BTV
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