189
FXUS61 KBTV 111837
AFDBTV
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
237 PM EDT Sat Jul 11 2026
.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
As of 237 PM EDT Saturday...
No significant changes from the previous forecast.
&&
.KEY MESSAGES...
As of 237 PM EDT Saturday...
1. Following a seasonable weekend, conditions will trend warmer
Monday and then hot and humid on Tuesday.
2. A sharp cold front passing Tuesday night into Wednesday
possibly bringing some thunderstorms followed by a cooling trend
back to around seasonal averages.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
As of 237 PM EDT Saturday...
KEY MESSAGE 1: Beautiful weather will continue through the weekend.
Relatively cool low level temperatures in the 60s Monday morning
while winds turn southerly could result in enhanced winds on Lake
Champlain`s broad waters (possibly in the 15-20 knot range) and a
relative burst of breezy conditions will be noted in the mountain
ridges as well, where 20-30 MPH winds will be possible following
light winds on Sunday. These breezes will be more noticeable the
following night into Tuesday morning and help advect in warmer and
more humid air.
Tuesday continues to look like an interesting weather day. Heat will
be the main story, with Heat Advisory issuance anticipated for at
least parts of the region. An advective heat will continue with
seasonally strong southwesterly flow transporting hotter low level
temperatures through the day; it would be a good idea to do outdoor
activities during the morning or early afternoon with this pattern.
Forecast soundings show high instability (CAPE of roughly 2000 J/kg)
developing by late afternoon amidst both hot and humid low level
profiles and steep mid level lapse rates, but also pronounced CIN
with a capping inversion or at least neutral stability above the
boundary layer. Lack of a trigger and very dry air aloft will result
in "wasted CAPE", consistent with a mainly sunny and dry.
Uncomfortable conditions will linger through the evening with lack
of precipitation/cloud cover, along with breezy southwest winds
keeping the air well mixed.
Have continued to stay closer to the raw model guidance as opposed
to the NBM for temperatures, which have largely remained the same as
previous forecast cycles. This results in conservative heat index
values similar to the most likely maximums, remaining in the 95-100
range in the Champlain Valley and 90-95 range in other valley
locations. The heat index in the St. Lawrence Valley has the largest
range of possibilities at this time, with potential for hotter
conditions than currently indicated. There`s some uncertainty in the
dewpoints, which may trend a little higher than forecast given some
of the latest guidance and moisture advection from the Great Lakes.
Have also noted that the Extreme Forecast Index is consistent with
the RRFS in showing the hottest/most unusual heat is favored for the
southern portions of the eastern Champlain Valley, centered over
western Addison County; this could be in part due to enhanced
subsidence in the west-southwesterly flow downslope of the eastern
Adirondacks and relatively small lake influence upwind. High
temperatures here are most favored to reach at least 95 degrees
with the heat index at or above this value.
KEY MESSAGE 2: Model consensus continues to promote the potential for
the passage of a sharp cold front Tuesday night. Given the
antecedent heat and amount of forcing projected along the boundary,
some nocturnal thunderstorms are possible. Most likely areas for
convection remain towards the Canadian border, but timing of the
front could dampen impacts. Should the passage shift more overnight
and away from the late evening time frame, then some low level
stability would limit instability and strength of storms.
Conversely, an earlier timing could allow for enhanced convection.
Those with camping plans may want to keep a closer eye of the
forecast as it evolves over the next couple of days.
Behind the front, temperatures trend cooler from Tuesday`s
unseasonably hot conditions. Wednesday will likely remain higher
than averages, but the downward trend will continue with
northwesterly flow through Friday where high temperatures are
favored to range in the upper 70s to low/mid 80s. Successive waves
could produce some showers late Thursday and again heading into
the weekend.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Through 18Z Sunday...Dry and VFR conditions will persist for
most terminals through this forecast period with the exceptions
of SLK/MPV where some IFR or lower CIG/VIS is most likely. Given
dry conditions this afternoon, crossover temperatures will be
difficult to achieve even at SLK/MPV, but a shorter duration of
fog/mist cannot be ruled out 06-12Z. Otherwise, northerly winds
for most terminals continue today with PBG responding to lake
breeze. Could see a brief switch at BTV from 300 degrees 20-23Z.
Outlook...
Sunday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Monday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Monday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
Tuesday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA.
Wednesday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Thursday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
&&
.CLIMATE...
High temperatures on Tuesday will be hot, but we are at the
climatological warmest part of the year. Therefore, it is far
from a certainty that any records will occur. At this time, PBG,
MPV, and MSS are the more likely long-term climate sites to
set a record. See below for current records:
Max Temp Records
Date BTV MPV MSS PBG SLK
07-14 100|1995 94|1952 92|2012 95|1952 95|1934
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.
&&
$$
WHAT HAS CHANGED...Kutikoff
DISCUSSION...Kutikoff
AVIATION...Boyd
CLIMATE...NWS BTV
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