166
FXUS61 KBTV 032232
AFDBTV
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
532 PM EST Sat Jan 3 2026
.SYNOPSIS...
Periods of snow showers will continue across portions of
northern New York and Vermont through Sunday as a weak trough
moves through the region. Then, frigid conditions are expected
Sunday night bringing wind chill values as low as -10 to -20
degrees for much of northern New York and Vermont. Conditions
are expected to trend warmer by the middle of next week with
potential for sharper warming and some mixed wintry
precipitation by late week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
* Frigid temperatures and wind chills are expected Sunday night
into Monday. Many locations will range -10 to -15F while
portions of northern New York and northeastern Vermont dip -15
to -22F. These conditions will increase chances of frost bite
for those unprepared.
As of 108 PM EST Saturday...Light snow showers are beginning to
tapering down as drier air works into the region out of Canada
this afternoon. However, another weak trough will sweep west to
east overnight bringing more scattered showers before becoming
relegated to higher terrain by late Sunday.
Focus remains on high pressure Sunday night moving into the
region allowing for some radiational cooling to drop
temperatures. Some locations, especially in the Adirondacks to
near Malone and in northeastern Vermont, could see hazardous
wind chill values below -20F. The caveat here will be winds
which remain marginal and cloud cover. Should cloud cover linger
slightly longer, wind chill values will stay above -20F. Also,
if clouds clear out, then nocturnal subsidence and what promises
to be a very strong radiation inversion would decouple winds.
Still, a light downslope wind of 2 to 5 mph could push wind
chill values low enough to warrant a marginal Advisory. Best
advice for now is to plan for frigid conditions to prevent frost
bite.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
As of 108 PM EST Saturday...Flow is favored to turn southerly
Monday heralding a relative warming trend with temperatures
continuing to run below seasonal averages. A fast moving, but
consolidated at 850-700mb, trough is expected to move through
the region bringing isolated to scattered snow showers. Speed
and limited moisture content (dendritic growth zone nearly on
the ground with little appreciable moisture advection) will keep
snow amounts on the lighter side with a trace to 2 inches
generally possible; highest amounts favored towards the St
Lawrence Valley, higher terrain of southern Vermont, and higher
terrain of the Adirondacks. Thermal packing and gradient to not
appear strong in mostly depictions, so temperatures will
actually be warmer than Sunday night with lows likely ranging
from the single digits above 0F to around 12F.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 139 PM EST Saturday...Above normal temperatures and an
weather active pattern will dominate the long term for mid to
late next week. Tuesday will be the coldest day of the long
term, though mild compared to current temperatures. Tuesday will
begin a warming trend with highs in the mid to upper 20s to
near 30 as a warm front lifts north through the region. The warm
front, and associated low over eastern Ontario, will slide
northeast during the evening to overnight Tuesday with
precipitation chances increase from southwest to northeast
Tuesday night. The system is expected to slide eastward into
Wednesday morning and exit by Wednesday evening. Thermal
profiles support all snow to start with surface temperatures in
the mid to upper 20s and below 0 925- 850mb thicknesses.
However, as the system shifts east/northeast overnight, winds
aloft will turn to the southwest drawing in warmer air with
progged 850mb temps to 1-3C, with the GEFS the more aggressive
solution with the warming aloft as compared to the EPS. There
have been some subtle trends towards a cooler surface,
especially across the eastern Greens due to cad, and across the
northern St. Lawrence Valley from cooler drainage winds as the
system slides east. These could lock in colder surface air
longer, and coupled with warming aloft, could lead to period of
wintry mix. While still some uncertainty, with anecdotal
evidence and a typical pattern for brief freezing rain,
supported by model soundings, have introduced a mention of
freezing rain for portions of southern Vermont, and the St.
Lawrence Valley where confidence is higher for a period of
freezing rain. This wintry mix looks to possibly impact the
Wednesday morning commute. By midday Wednesday, thermal profiles
will continue to warm towards highs in the mid 30s with mostly
rain outside of the higher terrain and eastern Greens. In
addition to the wintry mix potential, winds will become gusty
with the system as a 40-50 kt 850mb jet overhead. With any
northerly jog to the system, more efficient mixing could lead to
gusty surface winds, particularly across the St. Lawrence
Valley, Champlain Valley, and northern Vermont. Have continued
to trend gusts towards the NBM 90th percentile. As the system
departs, wrap around moisture with northwest flow will switch
any lingering precipitation to mountain snow confined to the
northern Greens, and Adirondacks briefly Wednesday night.
Subtle cooling Wednesday night will be short lived with
continued warming Thursday into Friday as ridging builds in
ahead of a full latitude mid/upper level trough. A mature
northern hemisphere cyclone looks to develop across the lee of
the Rockies Thursday and track up the Ohio Valley into New
England by late Thursday night into Friday morning. Ensemble
low to mid level temperatures show good agreement in moderate
warming with a 60-80% chance of reaching 40 degrees on Friday
and Saturday. There is still a lot of uncertainty with the track
of the system which will heavily impact the magnitude of warm
air aloft and ultimately the precipitation types associated with
the system. However, with probabilistic guidance noting a
strong chance of above freezing temperatures, there is
increasing potential for a mostly rain event by late week. Ice
movement and snow melt could be a concern by mid to late next
week. One good thing is that dewpoints look to struggle to
reach at or above freezing for much of the period which should
limit widespread efficient melting.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Through 00Z Monday...Scattered light snow showers will persist
at mainly KSLK/KMPV through 04z, with visibility generally 3-5SM
though occasionally 2SM during that time. Otherwise, anticipate
VFR to prevail at most terminals through the evening hours.
An area of light snow will try to make its way into
southwestern parts of the region after 06z, and while most of
it should miss the terminals, have included some MVFR/IFR
visibilities and MVFR ceilings at KRUT/KSLK through 12z. The
other terminals should see continuing VFR conditions overnight
and through much of the day tomorrow, though can`t rule out
occasional MVFR ceilings through the period. Winds will
generally N 3-8 kt during this period.
Outlook...
Sunday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Monday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHSN.
Monday Night: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. Chance SN.
Tuesday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Slight chance
SHSN.
Tuesday Night: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. Chance SHSN.
Wednesday: MVFR. Chance SHRA, Chance SHSN.
Wednesday Night: Mainly IFR, with areas MVFR possible. NO SIG WX.
Thursday: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. NO SIG WX.
&&
.EQUIPMENT...
NOAA Weather Radio station WXM-44, transmitting from Mt.
Ascutney, Vermont, on frequency 162.475 MHz is non-operational
at this time. NWS technicians have diagnosed the problem, but
repairs will likely not be able to occur for quite some time due
to circumstances beyond our control. Therefore, the time of
return to service is currently unknown. The following NOAA
Weather Radio transmitters may be able to provide service during
this outage: WWG 50 from Burke Mtn, VT at 162.425 MHz and WNG
546 from Hanover, NH at 162.525 MHz.
The Colchester Reef meteorological station is out of service.
This site is not serviced by the NWS and there isn`t an
estimated return to service at present. Use extra caution when
navigating the broad waters of Lake Champlain. Please contact us
if you observe winds significantly deviating from the
recreational forecast.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Boyd
NEAR TERM...Boyd
SHORT TERM...Boyd
LONG TERM...Danzig
AVIATION...Hastings/Myskowski
EQUIPMENT...Team BTV
|
