072
FXUS61 KBTV 051758
AFDBTV
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
1258 PM EST Fri Dec 5 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
Frigid temperatures across the region will moderate to afternoon
highs in the teens and 20s today as southerly winds increase on the
backside of exiting high pressure. Dry conditions prevail through
early Saturday morning before lake effect snow showers develop
downwind of Lake Ontario for the afternoon and evening. A clipper
system will bring a renewed chance of widespread snowfall Sunday
night into Monday with continued unsettled weather into next week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 1257 PM EST Friday...Quiet and unseasonably cold conditions
will continue today, though with southerly warm advective flow, some
locations in south-central Vermont are exceeding guidance. Highs
today will generally be in the upper teens to near 20, with some low
20s in the northern Champlain Valley, St. Lawrence Valley, and south
central Vermont. Southerly flow will also help to keep winds on the
breezy side in the south to north oriented valleys. Gusts up to 20
mph are possible through this evening before an inversion sets in
and surface winds weaken. Tonight will be warmer than last with
subtle warm advection behind our departing high and increased cloud
cover. Radiative cooling will less impressive tonight overall,
though temperatures will still be on the cold side with values in
the single digits to low teens.
Our next chance at precipitation will be from a weak shortwave
Saturday afternoon into Saturday evening that will sweep across the
northern portions of the region. Southwesterly flow ahead of an
associated front Saturday morning into the early afternoon will help
develop a narrow weak lake effect band downwind of Lake Ontario into
portions of southern St. Lawrence County. Snow accumulations will be
light to only about an inch or so, particularly along the NY-37
corridor in southern St. Lawrence County. As the front passes
through winds will turn more west/northwest dropping the lake effect
band south out of the region. The best forcing along the cold front
will be north of the region with some drier air ahead of it as well.
Continued southerly warm advection will also increase temperatures
to at or near freezing by Saturday afternoon, though with snow on
the ground, and wet bulbing possible, any precipitation that falls
will should be snow. Total snow areawide Saturday evening will be
light and generally non-impactful (<1" for many places). Winds will
be breezy to gusty Saturday afternoon, mainly near the International
Border and Champlain and St. Lawrence Valleys from channeled
south/southwesterly flow, before the front passes through. Behind
the front, quieter conditions will prevail with temperatures falling
back to single digits in northern New York where caa will be more
impressive, and into the low to mid teens across Vermont.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 1257 PM EST Friday...The end of the weekend will turn snowier
as a more defined system will traverse across the region. A clipper
system will begin to move into the region Sunday early afternoon
with what looks to be an all snow event. Trends with the system have
brought the center of the low a bit to the north away from southern
Vermont and more so into central and northern Vermont and New York.
Overrunning along the northern periphery of the low will be centered
along the northern Adirondacks and central Vermont and spine of the
Greens. As a result the latest forecast generally shows 2-3" in
portions of northern New York and 1-2" for central to northern
Vermont, with the higher amounts up to 3" colocated with the spine
of the Greens. Further track shifts will cause this corridor of
light snow to fluctuate north or south so keep an eye to the
forecast over the next day or two. Southern Vermont will be near the
freezing mark and with any further northerly nudges meaning less
snow in general. Overall, this snow looks to be mainly non-impactful
with most of the region only seeing a 25% chance of 2" or more of
snow. Some 850mb frontogenesis could cause some localized moderate
rates of snow, but the positioning of these hi-res features will
need additional updates. The timing of the best snow rates will
likely be Sunday night around midnight. Snow will continue into
Monday morning, but will turn lighter by sunrise as the system
begins to depart. Temperatures will once again fall Sunday night
into the single digits to near 0 outside of the Champlain Valley
where the Lake should limit temperatures from falling below 10
degrees.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 1257 PM EST Friday...The weak trough or barely 1010mb low will
slide out by Monday morning. There are some speed discrepancies, but
given that a modest count of ensembles indicate lingering snow
showers, boosted PoPs above NBM, especially for northern mountains.
We`ll soon be in the range of high res, and it should be noted some
guidance holds on to snow as late as 00z Tuesday. Arctic air will
filter in behind the system, and so Monday`s highs will remain in
the 10s, with perhaps a few 20 readings in southern Vermont.
Another cold night awaits Monday night into Tuesday. However, high
pressure will be shifting east and some high clouds will slide in
from the west. So for now, the forecast represents the NBM forecast,
which is still plenty cold in the single digits above and below
zero. As we get closer, we`ll monitor how much cloud cover there
will be and whether we can again experience chillier conditions
areawide.
Conditions will moderate quickly as the amplitude of weather systems
increases some. In the 500mb heights, there`s a trough swinging
through late Tuesday with possibly some light snow, and then a
larger system Wednesday night into Thursday, and yet another on late
Friday. As the week wears on, temperatures will become increasingly
closer to the freezing mark. So its certainly possible rain mixes in
depending on low pressure tracks for the latter half of next week.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Through 18Z Saturday...Prevailing VFR is expected with high clouds
and south winds. Wind speeds will be fastest in the Champlain Valley
due to channeled flow. So KPBG and KBTV will have sustained winds at
9 to 13 knots and gusts approaching 20 knots at times. Elsewhere,
wind speeds will be 5 to 9 knots. After 00z, winds will begin to
slow. Beyond 10z, winds will pick up and likely exceed this
afternoon`s gusts. Additionally, ceilings will lower towards 3500-
7000 ft agl over the course of the day and trend towards MVFR/IFR
beyond 18z Saturday.
Outlook...
Saturday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight
chance SHSN.
Sunday: VFR. Slight chance SN.
Sunday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance SN.
Monday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight chance SHSN.
Monday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday: VFR. Chance SHSN.
Tuesday Night: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. Chance SHSN.
Wednesday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR and IFR possible. Likely
SHSN, Likely SHRA.
&&
.EQUIPMENT...
NOAA Weather Radio station WXM-44, transmitting from Mt.
Ascutney, Vermont, on frequency 162.475 MHz is non-operational
at this time. NWS technicians have diagnosed the problem, but
repairs will likely not be able to occur for quite some time due
to circumstances beyond our control. Therefore, the time of
return to service is currently unknown. The following NOAA
Weather Radio transmitters may be able to provide service during
this outage: WWG 50 from Burke Mtn, VT at 162.425 MHz and WNG
546 from Hanover, NH at 162.525 MHz.
Equipment malfunctions at the Colchester Reef meteorological
station will likely leave it inoperable for an extended period
of time. This site is not serviced by the NWS. Technicians do
not currently have an estimated return to service for this
station. Use extra caution when navigating the broad waters of
Lake Champlain, and please contact us if you observe winds
significantly deviating from the forecast.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Danzig
NEAR TERM...Danzig
SHORT TERM...Danzig
LONG TERM...Haynes
AVIATION...Haynes
EQUIPMENT...Team BTV
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