530
FXUS61 KBTV 221744
AFDBTV
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
1244 PM EST Sat Nov 22 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
After a brief break in the precipitation this evening and overnight,
light snow will spread from west to east on Sunday. Minor
accumulations are expected, generally 2 inches or less through
Monday morning. Unsettled weather, mainly in the form of light rain,
will resume late Tuesday with chances of precipitation continuing
through Thanksgiving. While Wednesday will be relatively mild, a
frontal passage will bring colder conditions from Thanksgiving
through the weekend.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 1244 PM EST Saturday...Plentiful cloud cover across much of the
region this afternoon as an upper shortwave and cold air advection
result in steep lapse rates. There`s enough moisture that isolated
light snow showers have been noted in locations such as Morrisville
and Newport. Clouds and showers will wane after sunset as we lose
daytime heating, though don`t anticipate full clearing over the
higher terrain. This will impact tonight`s temperatures, as cloudier
conditions will limit potential radiational cooling. Have gone
closer to warmer guidance for overnight lows tonight as mid clouds
are expected to spread overhead even as the lower clouds dissipate.
Upper teens to upper 20s seem reasonable at this point, but
subsequent shifts will need to watch cloud and temperature trends as
we head into the overnight hours.
Widespread light precipitation is expected on Sunday as a weak
clipper low pressure system skirts along or just north of the
international border. It will likely take a bit for the atmosphere
to saturate given the dry air that`s in place, so precipitation may
fall as virga at the onset. Once it does reach the ground, expect
most areas will be cold enough for light snow, though the St
Lawrence Valley and the Champlain Valley could mix with and/or
change over to rain for a bit in the afternoon as temperatures warm
into the mid/upper 30s. The low moves to our east Sunday night,
transitioning widespread light stratiform precipitation to upslope
snow showers as winds turn to the west/northwest. These will
continue much of the overnight, then slowly start to wane through
early Monday morning. Total accumulations will be relatively light,
mainly 2 inches or less, with the highest accumulations above 1500
ft. The summits could pick up 3 to 5 inches during this time frame.
Lows will be in the mid 20s to mid 30s.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
As of 1244 PM EST Saturday...Upslope snow showers will continue
Monday morning on the western sides of the Adirondacks and Greens,
but expect these will wind down by afternoon as moisture rapidly
decreases. Sunshine should return by late in the day, especially in
the wider valleys. Temperatures will top out a little below normal,
peaking in the mid 30s to mid 40s. Clouds will increase again late
Monday night ahead of our next system, though precipitation will
hold off until after daybreak Tuesday. Lows will be in the 20s to
around 30F.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 1230 PM EST Saturday...During the first half of next week, a
mid- to upper level shortwave is expected to approach northern New
York and Vermont from the southwest, riding warm air advection and
return flow high pressure in the Atlantic. This should make for a
seasonably mild but cloudy and murky Tuesday with highs in the 40s
for most and southerly gusts 10-15 knots. Chances of precipitation
increase throughout the day from west to east Tuesday due to a warm
frontal passage. Precip should be largely in the form of rain
outside of the highest peaks due to the mild conditions. Some of
the highest elevations may pick up a half an inch of snow
Tuesday afternoon, but this should be very isolated and subject
to melt heading into an even milder midweek.
Precipitation is anticipated to be most widespread on Tuesday night,
and conditions are forecast to remain mild, cloudy, and dreary
through Wednesday before a cold front swings across the area
sometime Wednesday night/early Thanksgiving morning. Temperatures
will fail to fall below the 30s on Tuesday night under continued
thick cloud cover, rebounding quickly on Wednesday into the mid 40s
to mid 50s. If we reach 50F at the Burlington Airport on Wednesday,
it will be the first 50 degree day since November 8th. Thanks to
continued mild conditions Tuesday night-Wednesday, precipitation
should continue to be in the form of rain with minimal snow
possible, even at the highest elevations of the forecast area.
Temperatures look to eventually cool Wednesday night, but lows still
above seasonal normals on Thanksgiving morning in the mid 20s to mid
30s, leading to snow levels falling throughout the night and
potential for some snow showers even into the wider valleys as a
cold or occluded front associated with vertically stacked low
north of the Great Lakes lifts northeastward away from the
forecast area. Flow will also strengthen out of the west and
southwest on Thanksgiving, likely leading to some lake effect
precipitation across northern New York and potentially beyond
with gusts 20-30 knots possible across the forecast area.
All this said, we`re forecasting a seasonable Thanksgiving with
highs in the mid 30s to mid 40s and the potential for rain and snow,
especially across terrain. Probability of measurable precipitation
on Thursday will greatly depend on your location and elevation.
Those at higher elevations of the Adirondacks and northern Greens as
well as those located across the St. Lawrence Valley have a 40-70%
chance of precipitation, while the wider valleys, especially in
southern/central Vermont and the Connecticut River Valley have a 10-
40% chance.
Cold pool aloft supports additional snow showers towards the end of
the week especially across the northern Adirondacks and the Green
Mtns, as temperatures trend cooler. Significant travel concerns
aren`t currently anticipated, but timing uncertainty of any snow
showers (and possible light snow accumulations) following the
frontal boundary will need to be monitored. We continue to ask that
you please follow the latest forecasts, especially if you have any
travel plans.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Through 18Z Sunday...Ceilings 1500-3000 feet above ground level are
lingering across northern New York and the Champlain Valley this
afternoon under relatively blocked northwesterly flow, but cigs are
expected to lift to 3500+ feet as we head towards the evening hours
and become progressively unblocked. A few odd snow showers are out
there this afternoon, but these should be few and far between with
weak high pressure nosing into the region from the Ohio Valley.
Winds this afternoon have been somewhat breezy thus far out of the
west/northwest with gusts 15 to 25 knots. By 00Z Sunday, we
anticipate mostly VFR conditions and decreased winds across all
sites through around 13Z-16Z.
Some lingering MVFR level ceilings remain possible at places like
SLK and EFK across the terrain through the 24 hour TAF period, but
it`s hard to say how widespread clouds and cloud cover will be in
these locations. Could be bouncing between BKN035 to SCT025, then
BKN025 to SCT035. Winds will be turning from northwesterly to
southerly throughout the night and into tomorrow morning but should
largely remain under 10 knots. Light snow and rain will spread
across the region Sunday afternoon from west to east, with minor
accumulations from a coating to 2 inches by Monday morning. We`ll
see the beginning of this snow`s arrival in the 12Z-18Z Sunday TAF
period in the form of lowering ceilings and visibilities at northern
New York sites.
Outlook...
Sunday Night: Mainly IFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance SHSN,
Chance SHRA.
Monday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Slight chance SHSN.
Monday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday: VFR. Chance RA.
Tuesday Night: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. Likely RA.
Wednesday: Mainly IFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance RA.
Wednesday Night: Mainly MVFR, with areas IFR possible. Chance RA.
Thanksgiving Day: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance
RA, Chance SN.
&&
.EQUIPMENT...
NOAA Weather Radio station WXM-44, transmitting from Mt.
Ascutney, Vermont, on frequency 162.475 MHz is non-operational
at this time. NWS technicians have diagnosed the problem, but
repairs will likely not be able to occur for quite some time due
to circumstances beyond our control. Therefore, the time of
return to service is currently unknown. The following NOAA
Weather Radio transmitters may be able to provide service during
this outage: WWG 50 from Burke Mtn, VT at 162.425 MHz and WNG
546 from Hanover, NH at 162.525 MHz.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Hastings
NEAR TERM...Hastings
SHORT TERM...Hastings
LONG TERM...Storm
AVIATION...Storm
EQUIPMENT...Team BTV
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