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  Thursday October 19, 2017

 

NWS Area Forecast Discussion


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041
FXUS61 KBTV 190717
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
317 AM EDT Thu Oct 19 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure along the east coast of the United States will
maintain dry conditions across the North Country through Sunday.
With south to southwest winds in place, temperatures will warm
well above seasonal levels for mid to late October beginning
today, and continue through the upcoming weekend. The next
chance of appreciable precipitation occurs by Monday into
Tuesday of next week as a cold front crosses the area from west
to east.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 315 AM EDT Thursday...An upper level through will move a
shortwave from west to east to our north and will lead to some
partly cloudy skies this afternoon. It will also ramp up our
winds and wind gusts across both the Champlain and Saint
Lawrence Valleys as a tightening pressure gradient will develop
winds of 15-20kts with gusts of 25-35kts possible especially
over the Saint Lawrence Valley. The shortwave will be moisture
starved so I dont anticipate any precip with the system other
than perhaps some sprinkles in the Northeast Kingdom late this
afternoon. 925mb temps of 12-14C support highs this afternoon in
upper 60s to near 70.

As the shortwave trough passes, we should see a subtle wind
shift as we turn from southwesterly winds to more westerly to
northwesterly. This will lead to cold air advection developing
and bring temps for Friday back more in line with seasonable
normals in the low 60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 255 AM EDT Thursday...Upper ridge builds into the region
Friday night and Saturday. Should see plenty of sunshine with
surface high pressure over the area and above normal
temperatures...highs in the mid 60s to lower 70s. Winds will
generally be under 10 miles per hour. Overall should be a great
day for outdoor activities.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 255 AM EDT Thursday...Upper ridge axis shifts east of the
area Saturday night through Sunday night with surface high
moving east as well. This will promote a south to southwest flow
pattern and above normal temperatures are expected to continue
right into early next week. Dry weather is expected Saturday
night through Monday morning...but a shortwave trough will move
across eastern Canada on Monday and we may see some afternoon
showers. A more noticeable pattern change takes place Tuesday
into Wednesday as large upper trough develops upstream and a
more pronounced southerly flow pattern sets up over the area.
Showers will become likely Tuesday into Wednesday as a result.
Plenty of cloud cover will help lower temperatures...but above
normal temperatures are expected to continue.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Through 06Z Friday...VFR conditions through the forecast
period. The only impacts to aviation will be wind related as a low
level southwesterly jet of 20-35kts pushes into the the area.
This will produce LLWS and turbulence for the northern New York
sites through the overnight hours. By day break the pressure
gradient winds will increase and we start to mix down some of
the boundary layer winds. Gusty southwesterly winds will prevail
during the morning and into the early afternoon at all sites
with 25-35kts expected at SLK/MSS and 15-25 expected elsewhere.
A weak and dry cold front is expected to track through the area
which will bring in some mid and high clouds but isn`t expected
to cause any ceilings or have any impact on aviation other than
to end the gusts and see a wind shift towards the west northwest
by 00z Friday.

Outlook...

Friday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Friday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Saturday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Saturday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Sunday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Sunday Night: VFR. Slight Chance SHRA.
Monday: VFR. Chance SHRA.

&&

.MARINE...
Southerly winds will increase overnight reaching 15 to 25 kts by
dawn Thursday as a moderately strong pressure gradient develops.
Relatively mild water temps in the upper 50s may mix winds of
30 knots just above the surface early Thursday morning, so could
be a bit higher than 25 knot for a few hours from sunrise to
noon. This will lead to choppy conditions over the broad lake
and will cause hazards to any small crafts especially in south
facing bays. Winds should slowly diminish late in the afternoon
and then shift to the west northwest 10 to 15 knots Thursday
night.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
KTYX radar at Fort Drum, New York will remain down for
scheduled maintenance through tonight (10/18) and tomorrow
(10/19) as technicians repaint the radome.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Deal/Sisson
NEAR TERM...Deal/Taber
SHORT TERM...Evenson
LONG TERM...Evenson
AVIATION...Deal
MARINE...Deal
EQUIPMENT...BTV



 
 
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