158
FXUS61 KBTV 272329
AFDBTV
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
629 PM EST Sat Dec 27 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
Cold and dry conditions will continue through the day tomorrow. A
powerful low pressure system tracking to our west will bring a
period of freezing rain Sunday night into Monday, eventually
transitioning into plain rain. On the backside later Monday into
Tuesday, it will cause strong winds and chances for snow showers.
Blustery and cold weather with additional snow shower chances will
persist into the new year.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 106 PM EST Saturday...Clearing has been gradually occurring
during the morning and most areas should see clear skies by late
afternoon. Temperatures will be well below climatological normals,
but with light winds, there will not be much of a wind chill and it
should not feel overly cold. A strong temperature inversion develops
tonight as radiational cooling will cause surface temperatures to
drop fast, and warm air advection aloft will raise temperatures
higher up. Temperatures should drop down into the single digits
above and below zero, though the coldest spots in the Adirondacks
and Northeast Kingdom could drop into the negative teens. The
inversion will remain in place during the day tomorrow, and it could
lead to a unique setup where the highs in the Champlain Valley are
colder than the Adirondacks and higher elevations of Vermont. The
mountains may end up being the warm spots. Temperatures will drop
slightly in the evening but increasing cloud cover and boundary
level wind will prevent too much of a fall, though they will still
drop several degrees below freezing.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
As of 106 PM EST Saturday...A quickly deepening low pressure system
will move northeast into the Great lakes region and occlude Sunday
night into Monday. A secondary low will begin to develop just south
of the region and likely become the primary low as it moves up into
Atlantic Canada. With cold temperatures at the onset and lingering
effects of a polar high to the north, the precipitation with the
initial warm front will fall as freezing rain for most places Sunday
night. A substantial warm nose will prevent snow on the front end.
As warm air advection continues going through Monday morning,
temperatures at the surface will gradually warm above freezing. This
will likely start in parts of the northern Adirondacks and Champlain
Valley, before eventually reaching the St. Lawrence Valley and
protected hollows east of the Green Mountains last. Overall, ice
accumulations look to be in the 0.2-0.4 inch range for most places,
with a bit less in the Champlain Valley and parts of the northern
Adirondacks. The most favored areas could see up to around 0.5
inches.
Some model uncertainty remains with QPF and temperatures, and most
of it is related to the development of the aforementioned secondary
low. A quicker development, as long as it continues to be favored
south of the region, will significantly cut down on the warm air
advection and southerly surface winds, something like the HRRR and
RRFS currently show. This would lead to freezing rain hanging on
into the afternoon in many areas, and it would probably add another
tenth or two of an inch to the ice in the forecast. The forecast and
model guidance is generally clustered around the warmer solutions so
significantly lower amounts do not look likely, though parts of the
Champlain Valley and other areas that warm up quickly in southerly
winds could definitely see less.
Temperatures should rise into the mid 30s to mid 40s briefly in the
afternoon for most places. For more mixed areas this will likely
happen right before the cold front, while in eastern Vermont it will
likely occur right behind the cold front as the surface cold air
scours out. Cold air advection will be quite strong behind the front
and everywhere should see temperatures falling below freezing by
late Monday evening. Gusts will generally be in the 25-40 mph range,
though locally higher winds are possible in the St. Lawrence Valley
and far northern Adirondacks. This could present problems if the
colder guidance verifies and temperatures in the coldest areas do
not rise above freezing and ice remains on the powerlines and trees.
As the cold front moves through Monday afternoon and evening, a few
heavy convective snow showers are possible, especially across
northern areas. A quick coating is possible from these. Continued
snow showers will occur Monday night from wrap around moisture and
brief lake enhancement over parts of northern New York. These snow
showers will gradually transition into upslope snow showers heading
into Monday.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 106 PM EST Saturday...A wintry weather pattern is expected
throughout much of next week, as several disturbances continue to
bring cool weather and chances of snowfall to the region. Departing
low pressure on Tuesday will bring some breezy winds, along with
some lake effect snow off Lake Ontario and some lingering upslope
showers. A weak shortwave will reinvigorate snow showers across the
region Wednesday into Thursday, which may make for some slick travel
for New Years Eve. Cyclonic flow across the region looks to continue
to bring additional chances for snow, primarily across the higher
terrain. Temperatures throughout this time period will be on the
cool side, with highs in the teens and low 20s and overnight lows
generally in the single digits above and below zero.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Through 00Z Monday...Aviation challenge tonight is potential
for FZFG/BR or HZ at MSS/SLK, otherwise VFR conditions prevail
for the next 12 to 24 hours. Surface high pres building into our
region will result in clear skies and light winds tonight, but a
sharpening low level inversion with temps dropping 5 to 8
degrees below cross over values at SLK. This increases the
probability of shallow/patchy ground fog developing and
persisting into Sunday morning. Have tempo for IFR btwn 03-07z
with prevailing LIFR developing at 07z at SLK with vis 1/2sm in
FZFG. Less confidence and lower probability at MSS due to
slightly lower sfc dwpts and potential for high level clouds
after midnight, but did tempo IFR btwn 07-11z for 2SM and BR.
Rest of our taf sites should remain VFR with light trrn driven
winds.
Outlook...
Sunday Night: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. Definite FZRA, Chance
SN.
Monday: Mainly IFR, with areas MVFR possible. Windy with gusts to
35 kt. Definite RA, Definite FZRA, Likely SN.
Monday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR and IFR possible. Windy
with gusts to 35 kt. Likely SHSN.
Tuesday: VFR. Windy with gusts to 30 kt. Chance SHSN.
Tuesday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHSN.
Wednesday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHSN.
Wednesday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance
SHSN.
New Years Day: VFR. Chance SHSN.
&&
.EQUIPMENT...
NOAA Weather Radio station WXM-44, transmitting from Mt.
Ascutney, Vermont, on frequency 162.475 MHz is non-operational
at this time. NWS technicians have diagnosed the problem, but
repairs will likely not be able to occur for quite some time due
to circumstances beyond our control. Therefore, the time of
return to service is currently unknown. The following NOAA
Weather Radio transmitters may be able to provide service during
this outage: WWG 50 from Burke Mtn, VT at 162.425 MHz and WNG
546 from Hanover, NH at 162.525 MHz.
The Colchester Reef meteorological station is out of service.
This site is not serviced by the NWS and there isn`t an
estimated return to service at present. Use extra caution when
navigating the broad waters of Lake Champlain. Please contact us
if you observe winds significantly deviating from the
recreational forecast.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...Winter Weather Advisory from 7 PM Sunday to 4 PM EST Monday
for VTZ001>011-016>021.
NY...Winter Weather Advisory from 7 PM Sunday to 4 PM EST Monday
for NYZ026>031-034-035-087.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Myskowski
NEAR TERM...Myskowski
SHORT TERM...Myskowski
LONG TERM...Kremer
AVIATION...Taber
EQUIPMENT...Team BTV
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