449
FXUS61 KBTV 101141
AFDBTV
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
741 AM EDT Wed Jun 10 2026
.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
As of 248 AM EDT Wednesday...
A Heat Advisory has been issued for heat indices in the low to
mid 90s in the Champlain Valley on Friday.
&&
.KEY MESSAGES...
As of 248 AM EDT Wednesday...
1. Scattered showers and thunderstorms each day through Friday.
2. Building heat and humidity through Friday. Heat Advisory in
effect for the Champlain Valley 12-8 PM Friday.
3. Chances for showers and a few thunderstorms are expected
Sunday with temperatures cooling towards normal early next week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
As of 248 AM EDT Wednesday...
KEY MESSAGE 1: After a few dry days with ridging in control, a northern
stream shortwave will move into our area from the west today.
This will dampen the ridge and bring a return to unsettled and
showery conditions that will last through Friday. At least
chances of showers are possible each day, especially in the
afternoons when instability will be the greatest. The two
windows of greatest coverage of showers/thunderstorms will be
this afternoon (Wednesday afternoon) and again on Friday
afternoon/evening. Gulf moisture wrapping up and around western
Atlantic high pressure will bring PWats to near 2.0 inch and
dewpoints near 70 today. The resultant building instability will
support the development of scattered showers and thunderstorms
this afternoon as the shortwave moves in. Lack of deep shear and
relatively weak wind fields will limit severe potential today,
though locally moderate to briefly heavy downpours are possible
today in any thunderstorms that do materialize.
More widespread showers and thunderstorms are possible Friday as a
front sweeps through from west to east during the late
afternoon/evening hours. Ahead of the front, temperatures in the
upper 80s to low 90s with dewpoints upper 60s/low 70s will result in
impressive instability of potentially over 2500 J/kg. Given this
environment, some thunderstorms are likely to materialize as the
front sweeps through. However, better shear will be displaced to
the west, so at this point things don`t look to be fully ideally
lined up for severe storms.
KEY MESSAGE 2: Seasonal temperatures today will warm through the end of
the work week, with heat and humidity becoming a concern especially
on Friday. 925 mb temps will warm to 20-25 deg C each afternoon,
which suggests surface temps in the upper 80s to near 90
Thursday and Friday. Given the unsettled pattern however, with
numerous shortwaves moving through and the potential for clouds
and showers, have continued the trend of a more conservative
high temperature forecast than suggested by the NBM. Our
forecast high temperatures for Thursday range through the
80s...warmest in the Champlain and Connecticut River Valleys.
Though these temps are just slightly higher than seasonal norms,
building humidity with dewpoints approaching 70 will increase
heat impacts. Heat indices Thursday will be in the mid 80s to
low 90s. Overnight temperatures Thursday night into Friday will
be quite warm as well, with lows in the mid 60s to around 70.
Friday will be the warmest day of the week, and a Heat Advisory is
in effect for Friday from 12-8 PM for much of the Champlain Valley,
where heat indices will be in the low to mid 90s. Just how warm
temperatures will get on Friday will depend on timing of the front
later in the day and the evolution of associated cloud cover and
showers/thunderstorms. There is the potential heat indices could cap
just below Advisory criteria if showers/tstorms start earlier, but
NWS HeatRisk suggests at least a moderate to potentially major
risk of heat-related impacts. Given the warm low temperatures
from Thursday night, Friday will already start off on the warmer
side. This will in turn increase heat impacts for vulnerable
populations, and those sensitive to heat along with anyone with
outdoor plans on Friday should take precautions for the heat.
Temperatures Saturday will be in the mid 70s to mid 80s, but
dewpoints will be much lower and thus conditions will feel much
less muggy over the weekend.
KEY MESSAGE 3: Mean longwave troughing is highly favored to become
established across east-central Canada by Sunday with upper level
flow over Vermont and northern New York becoming increasingly zonal.
Model consensus shows a front moving rapidly through Sunday bringing
showers and the potential for a few thunderstorms. While cold air
advection will be limited, temperatures will cool early next week
behind the wave. Highs for Sunday are expected to range from the
upper 70s to lower 80s for most locations, but will not feel as
oppressive with dew points in the 50s. Broad cyclonic flow aloft
will keep shower chances ongoing Tuesday through mid week as another
trough moves towards the region late in the week. The silver lining
will be that temperatures continue their cooling trend back into the
70s.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Through 12Z Thursday...Chances for showers increase as low
pressure tracks through southern Canada pushing a weak front
through the region. While the front is not supported by a strong
thermal gradient, height falls will be sufficient to increase
chances of thunderstorms for the afternoon and evening hours.
Given forecast atmospheric soundings show instability extending
the depth of the troposphere, some showers/thunderstorms may
produce locally heavy rainfall. Should a thunderstorm move
directly over a terminal, IFR VIS/CIGs will be possible.
Moisture lingers after 00Z supporting lowering CIGs with
potential for widespread IFR after 03-06Z. Some LLWS will be
possible late in the forecast period but more localized to MSS
and SLK from 00-06Z.
Outlook...
Thursday: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Chance SHRA,
Slight chance TSRA.
Thursday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance
SHRA.
Friday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA, Slight
chance TSRA.
Friday Night: VFR. Definite SHRA, Chance TSRA.
Saturday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Saturday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Sunday: VFR. Chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA.
&&
.CLIMATE...
Record High Temperatures:
June 12:
KMPV: 88/2017
KMSS: 89/2005
Record High Minimum Temperatures:
June 12:
KBTV: 71/2017
KPBG: 67/2017
KSLK: 62/1996
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...Heat Advisory from noon to 8 PM EDT Friday for VTZ001-002-005-
009-011.
NY...Heat Advisory from noon to 8 PM EDT Friday for NYZ028-035.
&&
$$
WHAT HAS CHANGED...Duell
DISCUSSION...Duell/Boyd
AVIATION...Boyd
CLIMATE...NWS BTV
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