201
FXUS61 KBTV 270927
AFDBTV
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
427 AM EST Sat Dec 27 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
The severity of cold air will lessen through the weekend, with
higher elevations especially trending milder. A powerful low
pressure system tracking to our west will bring us a period of
freezing rain Sunday night into Monday and then gusty winds and
chances for snow showers later Monday into Tuesday. Blustery
and cold weather with additional snow shower chances will
persist into the new year.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 213 AM EST Saturday...
*Light snow will end early this morning, with otherwise quiet
weather through the weekend.
Stubborn high pressure to our north will reinforce seasonably cold
conditions as the wave of light snow departs early today. The
large scale pattern looks almost identical to yesterday, only
with a somewhat moderated air mass such that temperatures will
be less bitterly cold.
A rare extended period of strongly anticyclonic flow remains in
store for the weekend. For sensible weather, it`s a tricky sky
forecast today as low level moisture only gradually erodes.
Skies will be slow to clear, but based on satellite imagery
showing clearing expanding eastward near Ottawa at this hour,
think eventually sunny skies will be common. Have continued to
trend temperatures colder for tonight with ideal radiational
cooling likely. As surface temperatures plummet and temperatures
aloft warm notably, an unusually sharp inversion is on track to
develop. Localized freezing fog may also develop, with greatest
potential in the Adirondack region where low level moisture
looks a bit richer. On Sunday it will be the quiet before the
storm with very light winds, abundant dry air, and the typical
lowering/thickening of clouds with time. Impressive modification
of the air mass aloft on southwesterly winds, while the surface
wind remains light, will translate to much milder temperatures
above 1500 feet than in the lower elevations in an atypical
pattern.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
*** Significant freezing rain is expected Sunday night into
Monday. Flat ice accumulations in the range of 0.25"-0.5" are
possible for much of the region. This type of ice would produce
hazardous, icy road conditions for the Monday morning commute,
and weight down tree limbs enough for isolated power outages.
Busy weather Sunday night through Monday with a potent low pressure
system passing to our west will include freezing rain, a brief warm
up, gusty winds, and backside snow showers for the higher terrain.
Mid and upper level ridging on Sunday ahead of the system`s warm
front will set the stage for freezing rain as the dominant
precipitation type as a large warm layer aloft builds. Temperatures
at the surface will remain cold under the influence of our high
pressure system that will drift further to our east, but by being
northeast of our region we will see little warming. Onset of
freezing rain seems to be mainly after 7 PM, with greatest
likelihood in the 1 AM to 7 AM period. Unfortunately, the latest
model blend has trended wetter as consensus for a more robust warm
front is evident. Greatest liquid amounts are forecast in southern
portions of the region where threat of greatest ice amounts exists,
dependent on terrain influence. The magnitude of southeasterly winds
as rain moves into the region will be a factor to how quickly
temperatures warm on the downslope side of the higher terrain.
Generally greatest opportunity of dodging significant icing is over
the western Adirondacks (eg. Tupper Lake westward to near Route 11).
Highest confidence in greater ice amounts exists in the northern St.
Lawrence Valley, southwestern Essex County New York, and most of
Vermont east of the Green Mountain Spine, especially in south
central Vermont (eg. from near Barre south to near Ludlow). Portions
of northeastern Vermont may see some warming off of the White
Mountains prior to steadier precipitation arriving to lead to
lower amounts of freezing rain. For now have gone with a more
pessimistic ice forecast to show more of a reasonable worst case
scenario in the official forecast at this time, but please
monitor the latest forecasts as we update them in the coming
days. Winter Weather Advisories can be expected at the very
least ahead of this event, with some potential for Ice Storm
Warnings for areas like in the St. Lawrence Valley.
Secondarily, we will see increasing south to southwest winds during
the day as we briefly get into the storm`s warm sector ahead of its
cold front. With 850 millibar temperatures pushing 10 degrees
Celsius in the morning, temperatures could dramatically warm in
localized areas that do mix out their inversion.
It is unclear how much of a triple point feature develops and where
it will track out ahead of the primary and powerful occluded low
pressure system that will pass to our northwest. This feature would
support some convective showers during the afternoon and sharply
falling temperatures with a shift to west-southwesterly winds, such
that precipitation type will switch to snow in the Adirondacks, and
potentially in much of Vermont later on towards evening. The more
concerning winds will probably be immediately behind this front in
the St. Lawrence Valley with terrain enhancement, where potential
Wind Advisory level gusts will need to be monitored with such a deep
low pressure system and associated southwesterly low level jet
moving in during the afternoon. Top of the mixed layer winds above
55 knots are evident in forecast soundings. Needless to say, this
could be an additional hazard with regards to any significant ice
accumulation that persists on tree limbs.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 159 AM EST Saturday...This period includes the backside of our
ice event through the New Year`s holiday.
SFC low and front move through the area Monday afternoon with
falling temperatures in increasing cold WNW winds for ptype to
changeover to snow showers with the main snow shower activity being
across northern areas and favorable WNW mountains Monday night-
Tuesday. Strong 850mb with cold air advection will allow good mixing
of winds thus windy late Monday through Tuesday night. WSW flow
across the eastern Great Lakes will allow for some LES in the
Adirondacks with -SHSN and instability -SHSN in northern VT
mountains.
A weak shortwave and surface reflection is still expected Wednesday
with more snow showers that may linger into New Years Eve plans.
Nothing to impactful but worth monitoring if traveling is in your
plans.
Thereafter...continued cold cyclonic flow across Great Lakes, NE and
Eastern Canada. This will keep things cold with potentially more -SHSN
later New Years and Friday. Energy in this flow late New Year`s
may develop a SFC low near Southern New England and we`ll need
to see how this unfolds to see if it`s anything more than -SHSN
for us with the upper trof.
&&
.AVIATION /10Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Through 06Z Sunday...Mainly light snow falling across most of
our TAF sites at 06z but will be exiting by 09-10z. MVFR-IFR
with the snow then should primarily VFR with VSBY but some MVFR
CIGS possible. Winds are generally light 5-7 kts or less but NE
8-15 kts at KMSS but that will diminish with time this
morning.
Drier air is poised for the region, but there is a developing
inversion and this could lead to some low clouds for some but
with time later this afternoon it should be SCT with VFR
conditions. Light winds < 7kts for all sites.
One concern, especially at KSLK is strengthening low level
inversion where bkn-ovc005 deck and reduced Vsby due to ice fog
is possible overnight.
Outlook...
Sunday: VFR. Slight chance FZRA.
Sunday Night: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Chance FZRA.
Monday: Mainly IFR, with areas MVFR possible. Definite RA,
Definite FZRA, Definite SN.
Monday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR and IFR possible. Windy
with gusts to 30 kt. Likely SN, Chance FZRA.
Tuesday: VFR. Windy with gusts to 30 kt. Chance SHSN.
Tuesday Night: VFR. Chance SHSN.
Wednesday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHSN.
&&
.EQUIPMENT...
NOAA Weather Radio station WXM-44, transmitting from Mt.
Ascutney, Vermont, on frequency 162.475 MHz is non-operational
at this time. NWS technicians have diagnosed the problem, but
repairs will likely not be able to occur for quite some time due
to circumstances beyond our control. Therefore, the time of
return to service is currently unknown. The following NOAA
Weather Radio transmitters may be able to provide service during
this outage: WWG 50 from Burke Mtn, VT at 162.425 MHz and WNG
546 from Hanover, NH at 162.525 MHz.
The Colchester Reef meteorological station is out of service.
This site is not serviced by the NWS and there isn`t an
estimated return to service at present. Use extra caution when
navigating the broad waters of Lake Champlain. Please contact us
if you observe winds significantly deviating from the
recreational forecast.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Kutikoff
NEAR TERM...Kutikoff
SHORT TERM...Kutikoff
LONG TERM...SLW
AVIATION...SLW
EQUIPMENT...Team BTV
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