FXUS61 KBTV 051113
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
713 AM EDT Sun Apr 5 2020
A weakening cold front will move across the North Country today
with little impact other than scattered light rain showers.
Surface high pressure returns with drier conditions for Monday
and Tuesday along with highs in the low to mid 50s. A series of
frontal systems brings increasing chances for rain showers on
Wednesday and again Thursday afternoon.
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 626 AM EDT Sunday...Satellite imagery shows clouds have
spread across just about the entire North Country this morning
and we are starting to see some light rain showers moving into
the Saint Lawrence Valley. Have issued a quick update to adjust
PoPs and sky cover to match the latest radar and satellite
trends, but overall the forecast remains unchanged.
Previous discussion...Main focus for today will be a weak cold
front which will cross the North Country late this
afternoon/evening. This boundary will be decaying through the
day with meager forcing associated with its passage, so don`t
anticipate much more than cloudy skies and scattered rain
showers as it moves through. The showers will end from west to
east this evening as front passes, and the higher summits may
see a bit of snow mix in before the precipitation comes to an
end. Little to no snow accumulation is expected. Highs today
will be in the lower to mid 50s, with locations in the southern
valleys tipping into the upper 50s. Lows tonight are a tad
tricky as cloud will be dissipating. We`ll stay under a bit of a
gradient overnight as high pressure begins to approach from the
west, so there will be some wind, as well. Hence don`t
anticipate optimal radiational cooling conditions. Still, lows
will get down into the lower to mid 30s, with some upper 20s in
the usual cold-prone spots in the Northeast Kingdom and
Adirondacks. Drier conditions are expected for Monday as the
aforementioned high pressure brings mostly sunny skies. 925mb
temperatures will be a few degrees cooler than today, but the
sunshine will help highs get back into the lower to mid 50s in
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 345 AM EDT Sunday...High pressure will remain over the
region for Monday night and Tuesday. Both periods should
generally be dry, except just a slight chance for light rain or
snow showers Monday night with a little shortwave energy passing
through upper level flow across the area. Little bit of cloud
cover associated with this feature as well, therefore
temperatures will not drop too sharply. Temperatures on Tuesday
will rise into the upper 40s to mid 50s. Will also have
increasing clouds during the day Tuesday ahead of next
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 400 AM EDT Sunday...The rest of the extended portion of
the forecast will be very active, tough to find a dry period at
all, though we won`t have non stop precipitation either. A low
pressure system will pass from the Great Lakes area Tuesday
night, south of our forecast area and off the coast of Cape Cod
Wed afternoon. Will see clouds and precipitation for our area
from late Tuesday night through much of the day Wed. GFS is much
slower than the ECMWF with this feature for now, though
Canadian is in better agreement with the GFS for that timeframe.
Should have a brief break in the action from later Wednesday
afternoon until early Thursday morning. Another low pressure
system moves from the Great Lakes region well north of our
forecast area into Central Quebec on Thursday. A cold front
crosses our area Thursday afternoon, and may even have some
convection with this fropa. This low will be slow to exit the
region, and some wrap around moisture will remain over our area
through Friday. Upper level trough remains over the north
country and some showers are possible through Saturday.
.AVIATION /11Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Through 12z Monday...VFR conditions trending MVFR through the
day as clouds increase and lower ahead of a frontal passage
later this afternoon/evening. Most sites are currently VFR, but
expect ceilings to lower to 1500-3000 ft from west to east 14z-
18z today, then begin lifting again after 21z. Scattered
showers are expected with the front as well, but anticipated
coverage is not enough to warrant mention in TAFs beyond VCSH.
Showers will come to an end this evening and overnight, with
ceilings increasing to VFR by 06z Monday. Light and variable
winds will become south- southeast around 5 kt this afternoon,
then becoming west- northwest post- front.
Monday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Monday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA, Slight chance SHSN.
Wednesday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA.
Wednesday Night: Mainly IFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance
SHRA, Chance SHSN.
Thursday: Mainly MVFR, with areas IFR possible. Definite SHRA,
Slight chance TSRA.