568
FXUS61 KBTV 111751
AFDBTV
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
1251 PM EST Sun Jan 11 2026
.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will sweep across the region this evening with
scattered snow showers and falling temperatures. A few inches of
snow accumulation is likely in the northern Adirondacks and parts of
the central and northern Greens tonight. Additional mainly mountain
snow showers will redevelop again on Monday afternoon and continue
into Tuesday. Temperatures remain at or above normal through mid
week, before much colder air and additional chances for snow arrives
late Wednesday through Friday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
As of 1250 PM EST Sunday...GOEs-19 mid lvl water vapor imagery with
RAP upper air analysis indicates mid/upper lvl trof axis approaching
SLV this aftn along with secondary cold frnt. This sfc convergence,
combined with increasing mid lvl moisture and slightly more
favorable upslope flow wl produce a period of accumulating, mainly
trrn focused snow tonight. Still watching for the potential of a few
heavier embedded snow squalls within the area of snow showers late
this aftn into the evening hours, as the locally developed snow
squall parameter is in the 1-3 range, with some pockets of sfc based
CAPE of 25 to 75 J/kg, along with favorable axis of 925mb fgen
forcing. Thinking best potential for an embedded snow squall would
be northern Dacks and portions of the northern/central Greens, but
not expecting organized snow squall activity given the setup. The
froude number is unblocked with values in the 1.25 to 2.0 range
behind the boundary, with wind direction of 270-290 degrees, so
anticipate snow shower activity along and downwind of the spine,
including parts of the NEK and central VT. A period of gusty
westerly winds still on tap btwn 02z- 08z tonight, especially eastern
slopes of the Dacks and east side of the Green Mtns, where localized
gusts 35 to 45 mph can be expected. Sounding data at MPV shows a
lowering inversion height below summit lvl, which wl act to
suppress/squeeze air down the eastern slopes, resulting in locally
gusty winds, as top of the mixed layer winds are 40 to 45 knots
around 06z tonight. Lows range from near 10F SLK to 20F CPV.
Snowfall ranges from a dusting valleys to 4 inches summits by Monday
morning, good luck measuring with the gusty winds.
Monday-Monday Night...The mid/upper lvl flow aloft quickly flattens
and becomes zonal by Monday with our next weak 700-500mb vorticity
approaching our western cwa by 18z. This energy center, combined
with increasing 850mb to 500mb moisture wl help in the redevelopment
of snow showers Monday aftn into Monday night. Given westerly wind
component of 30 to 40 knots at 850mb, expect areas of shadowing acrs
the CPV and lower CT River Valley. Have continued with trrn focused
pop/qpf and snowfall fields for Monday aftn into Monday night, with
highest values over the Dacks and central/northern Greens. Pops
range from schc valleys to near 100% in the mtns with additional
snowfall of a dusting to 3 inches possible, except slightly higher
south of Route 3 over southern St Lawrence County due to some lake
enhanced moisture. Instability is marginal given minimal lake/air
difference and increasing sfc to cloud layer shear >30 knots.
Progged 925mb temps are in the -6C to -8C range on Monday,
supporting highs in the mid 20s to lower 30s with readings falling
back only in the 20s on Monday night due to clouds and winds.
Overall impacts look marginal and mostly confined to the higher trrn
where some localized slick travel is possible over the next 12 to 36
hours, but this is winter in northern NY and VT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 1250 PM EST Sunday...An upper level ridge will quickly cut off
any instability on Tuesday. With lingering snow showers shutting off
early in the day. Temperatures warm above normal, with the warmest
valleys pushing 40F. As the evening approaches, the leading edge of
a clipper system could bring showers back to the Saint Lawrence
Valley and along the International Border. Snow showers will become
more widespread above 500-1000ft overnight, but the system has
limited moisture, keeping any accumulation to a minimum.
Temperatures will remain elevated during the overnight hours as
southerly winds pick up and snow levels rise.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 1250 PM EST Sunday...Breezy southwest winds will be the
headline on Wednesday as the clipper system moves out. In addition
to the strong winds in the mountainous terrain, the setup favors
channeled flow in the Champlain and Saint Lawrence Valleys. While
some precip could linger, we aren`t seeing the qpf required for an
impactful event.
Temperatures plummet on Thursday as a cold front reaches into
northern New York and Vermont. Arctic air will rapidly drop our
temperatures with temperatures below zero possible both Friday and
Saturday mornings. While the frontogenesis with this system is
decent, we lack any significant moisture and instability. At this
time, the setup looks to favor southern New England and the Mid
Atlantic, with better moisture and thermodynamics south of our CWA. .
&&
.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Through 18z Monday...Primary impacts to aviation community will
be gusty winds and the development of scattered snow showers.
Currently VFR conditions prevail at all sites, but expected snow
shower activity to increase in areal coverage across northern NY
taf sites this aftn and spread eastward into VT sites by sunset.
Mostly MVFR vis/cigs anticipated with intervals of IFR/LIFR
likely in the heavier snow shower activity, especially SLK
between 22z-02z this evening. Also, expect some IFR intervals at
EFK/MSS and MPV, especially as brisk northwest upslope flow
develops. Less likely for impactful snow showers at PBG/BTV and
RUT. Gusty west/northwest winds 15 to 30 knots expected this
evening with areas of moderate wind shear and turbulence,
especially near trrn features. Snow showers decrease in areal
coverage by 06z with improving conditions to MVFR mountains and
VFR valleys. Additional snow showers redevelop over northern NY
toward 18z Monday.
Outlook...
Monday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance SHSN.
Tuesday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight chance SN.
Tuesday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance RA,
Chance SN.
Wednesday: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Chance RA,
Chance SN.
Wednesday Night: Mainly MVFR, with areas IFR possible. Likely RA,
Likely SN.
Thursday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance SN.
Thursday Night: VFR. Chance SN.
Friday: VFR. Slight chance SN.
&&
.EQUIPMENT...
NOAA Weather Radio station WXM-44, transmitting from Mt.
Ascutney, Vermont, on frequency 162.475 MHz is non-operational
at this time. NWS technicians have diagnosed the problem, but
repairs will likely not be able to occur for quite some time due
to circumstances beyond our control. Therefore, the time of
return to service is currently unknown. The following NOAA
Weather Radio transmitters may be able to provide service during
this outage: WWG 50 from Burke Mtn, VT at 162.425 MHz and WNG
546 from Hanover, NH at 162.525 MHz.
The Colchester Reef meteorological station is out of service.
This site is not serviced by the NWS and there isn`t an
estimated return to service at present. Use extra caution when
navigating the broad waters of Lake Champlain. Please contact us
if you observe winds significantly deviating from the
recreational forecast.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Taber
NEAR TERM...Taber
SHORT TERM...Langbauer
LONG TERM...Langbauer
AVIATION...Taber
EQUIPMENT...Team BTV
|
