545
FXUS61 KBTV 251127
AFDBTV
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
727 AM EDT Sat Jul 25 2026
.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
As of 725 AM EDT Saturday...
Chances for showers and thunderstorms have increased slightly Monday
as confidence increases for enough moisture and upper level
troughing to produce scattered to numerous showers.
&&
.KEY MESSAGES...
As of 725 AM EDT Saturday...
1. Mainly dry and warm weather will continue through the
weekend as high pressure remains over the region.
2. A pattern change and upper troughing will bring increased
chances of showers and thunderstorms on Monday and Monday night.
3. An unsettled weather pattern is anticipated this upcoming
week with several rounds of showers and embedded
thunderstorms expected.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
As of 725 AM EDT Saturday...
KEY MESSAGE 1: High pressure is currently anchored over central New
York early this morning and will keep our region dry and warm
through at least Sunday. This will also mean light winds and cooler
nights with valley fog possible. Temperatures are on their way down
towards the mid 40s to near 60 F early this morning. After near-
normal warmth yesterday, we`re anticipating above-average highs of
widespread lower and mid 80s to arrive this afternoon under light
southerly flow aloft as high pressure shifts east and northeast.
Tonight (Saturday night), high pressure will continue to drift away
from our area as a weak upper shortwave approaches. This will keep
temperatures a little milder tonight with lows only falling into the
50s and lower 60s, around seasonable for this time of year. There
could be some brief patchy fog in the typical spots of the
Adirondacks, but generally we`re heading into a pattern change
towards the end of the weekend. Sunday will be our last day of
mainly dry conditions with widespread 80s again. The odd shower or
thunderstorm in the Adirondacks is not out of the question on
Sunday, but overall low likelihood.
KEY MESSAGE 2: Chances for showers and thunderstorms increase for the
start of the work week under upper troughing. Diurnally driven
terrain scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible during
the day Monday, primarily in northern New York. Daytime
precipitation chances run around 50-80% in northern New York, but
only 10-45% across Vermont, lowest in the Connecticut River Valley.
Exact high temperatures may depend on where and when precipitation
occurs, but looking like highs in the upper 70s and 80s are likely.
The ECMWF continues to depict the arrival of surface low pressure
over the Great Lakes during this period, which if it occurs, could
have some impact on Monday night precipitation, but the GFS
continues to exclude it. At the moment, precipitation again looks
most likely in northern New York, mainly St. Lawrence County, with
40-75% chance, then 20-40% elsewhere other than the Northeast
Kingdom, which looks most likely to remain dry, only 5-20% chance
precip. Total precipitation Monday and Monday night expected around
0.05-0.30 inches in the Champlain Valley and west, with only 0.00-
0.05" anticipated east of the Champlain Valley. As is typical when
we have convective showers and storms, these amounts will vary
depending on location and shower intensity, likely higher in any
potential t-storm. Because of the showers and moisture around Monday
night, lows will be mild in the mid 50s to mid 60s.
KEY MESSAGE 3: Global guidance shows a large spread in potential
solutions associated with development/magnitude of mid/upper lvl
trof acrs the NE CONUS for this upcoming week. ECMWF/UKMET and ICON
show a deepening and closing off 700-500mb circulation acrs the NE
CONUS/Mid Atlantic States Tues/Weds time frame, while GFS/CMC are
less robust with closing system off and more progressive with
mid/upper lvl trof lifting acrs the NE CONUS. The ECMWF/UKMET and
ICON solution would need to be watched closely for potential
flooding, especially with slow moving showers/embedded thunder
associated with being directly under the closed low pres. Given the
large ridge/trof amplification expected acrs the CONUS this upcoming
week, this solution has the potential to happen, as does a faster
with minimal impact scenario advertised by the GFS/CMC. A couple
factors could limit heavy rain potential, such as better instability
is located to our south and closing mid/upper lvl circulation is
associated with northern stream energy with pw values only around 1
STD above normal. We will continue to monitor later guidance
packages and look for a trend in the potential outcomes. For now WPC
has 60 to 90% Tues/Weds with values tapering off to 30-40% by late
week. Highs generally at or slightly below normal, due to
clouds/precip, but lows at or slightly above normal. Highs mainly
70s to near 80 and lows upper 50s to mid 60s for Tues thru Fri.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Through 12Z Sunday...A couple hours of IFR fog/br developed at
SLK/MPV early this morning around sunrise, but has already
dissipated. High pres will continue to provide our taf sites
with VFR conditions today, along with south to southwest winds 4
to 8 knots. Thinking less fog/br tonight at SLK/MPV due to
slightly stronger winds and the potential for developing
mid/upper lvl clouds, especially over northern NY.
Outlook...
Sunday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Sunday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Monday: VFR. Chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA.
Monday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA.
Tuesday: VFR. Definite SHRA, Chance TSRA.
Tuesday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Likely SHRA,
Chance TSRA.
Wednesday: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Likely SHRA,
Chance TSRA.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.
&&
$$
WHAT HAS CHANGED...Storm
DISCUSSION...Taber/Storm
AVIATION...Taber
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