560
FXUS61 KBTV 312330
AFDBTV
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
730 PM EDT Fri Oct 31 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
Cool and blustery conditions will prevail for most of this upcoming
weekend with occasional valley rain and mountain snow showers. A
light slushy snow accumulation is possible above 1500 feet by
Saturday morning, as temperatures fall into the upper 20s to near
40. Westerly winds will gust at 30 to 45 mph at times overnight,
before slowly weakening on Saturday. Warmer and drier weather
returns by early next week, as temperatures climb back into the 50s.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 247 PM EDT Friday...Updated to remove equipment section as
TYX radar is back in service.
A cool, blustery and showery evening is on tap for Halloween
activities. Sfc analysis places an impressive 978mb low pres
just east of Sherbrooke with deep/vertically stacked system
slowly moving northeast. Storm total rainfall has been 1.72"
here at BTV thru 2:45 PM, just imagine if it were colder. This
closed cyclonic circulation wl produce a prolonged upslope
precip event acrs our mtns thru at least Sat morning, before
drier air develops by Sat aftn and precip slowly dissipates. The
highest pops near 100% and greatest qpf wl be focused over the
northern Dacks and central-northern Greens, with much less in
favorable downslope areas of the CT River Valley and parts of
the western CPV.
Whiteface summit temp already down to 30F with flakes flying
and little Whiteface at 3000 feet is 33F, would expect snow
level near SLK/Lake Placid by 00z, as progged 925mb temps fall
below 0C. For the Green, snow levels start near summit level
this aftn, but falls to 3000 feet by 00z and near 1500 feet
around midnight. 925mb temps hover btwn -1C and -3C, so a slushy
snow accumulation is possible on grassy surfaces down to 1500
feet or so by morning. Expecting 1 to 3 inches btwn 1800 and
3000 feet, 2 to 4 inches between 3000 and 4000 feet and 4 to 6
inches at summit level of both the Greens and Dacks by Sat aftn.
Will there be enough for the rock skis and boards by midday
Saturday?
Winds still remain gusty overnight as sub 980mb low pres slowly
moves away from our cwa. Progged 850mb winds of 45 to 55 knots are
present acrs our cwa, with highest values over the southern Greens
near Ludlow. Soundings continue to support a lowering inversion
height, which wl act to suppress the air and accelerate it on the
eastern downslope side of the Greens from near Stowe to Ludlow and
over parts of the eastern Dacks. Localized gusts in the 40 to 50 mph
with a few power outages wl be possible, otherwise gusts mostly in
the 30 to 45 mph range expected overnight. Temps range from mid 20s
summits to lower 40s near Lake Champlain.
Saturday deep cyclonic flow prevails with a cool and brisk day
anticipated. Expect snow and rain showers to linger acrs the trrn
with pops 60 to 80% thru the morning, before slowly tapering off by
aftn. Depth of moisture per soundings becomes very shallow aft
18z with no ice/moisture in the DGZ, resulting in a prolonged
period of rime icing Sat aftn into Sunday acrs the summits.
Progged 850mb temps hold btwn -5C and -7C, so a chilly day is on
tap with highs mid 20s summits to l/m 40s warmer valleys. Some
breaks in the overcast are possible in favorable downslope areas
of the CT River Valley and lower parts of the western CPV.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 247 PM EDT Friday...Cyclonic flow prevails into Sunday morning
with secondary s/w energy and associated cold frnt moving acrs our
region on Sat night. Another round of mtn precip is possible as
progged 850mb temps drop to -6C to -9C by 12z Sunday. The lack of
deep layer moisture wl limit the areal coverage of precip, but a
fresh coating of snow is possible above 1000 feet on Sat
night/Sunday morning. Given the shallow vertical moisture profiles,
some patchy freezing drizzle could fall in the cloud layer above
2000 feet. Otherwise, temps are in the upper teens summits to mid
30s near Lake Champlain for lows and warm into the mid/upper 20s
summits to mid 40s valleys on Sunday. Sunday night our winds shift
to the southwest and waa develops as progged 925mb warm btwn -1C NEK
to +6C SLV by 12z Monday. Temps could fall early and begin to warm
after midnight with southerly winds and potential for increasing
clouds. Otherwise, no impactful wx anticipated.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 118 PM EDT Friday...A cold frontal boundary will bring
increasing chances of precipitation as we progress through
Monday and Monday night, though associated pwats (up to 0.75
of an inch) look to be relatively low with this event compared
to the rain event we`re experiencing today, and dry air flows in
quickly behind the front on Tuesday and Tuesday night. Most
likely period of precipitation will be Monday afternoon through
the early overnight, about 75-95% chance of measurable
precipitation during this period. Monday`s mild highs in the
lower and mid 50s under southerly flow and broad warm air
advection should keep precip in the form of rain for most
outside of the highest peaks during the day, but at night temps
are expected to fall into the upper 20s to lower 40s as winds
turn westerly with snow levels reaching down to about 1800-2400
feet. Total precipitation expected Monday and Monday night is
about 0.10-0.50" with highest amounts in northern and high
terrain areas.
Following the cold front, the midweek should be seasonable but
trending cooler into the late week with highs starting in the
mid 40s to lower 50s becoming highs only in the 40s. Lows
should be in the 20s and 30s for much of the rest of the week. A
brief break in precipitation may occur Tuesday night-Wednesday
morning due to high pressure over the Southeast, but models
quickly bring in a quick clipper system for the latter half of
the week. While global deterministic models seem to agree on the
concept of the clipper, there remains a wide variety of
potential tracks and speeds for this late week precipitation.
Looks like another rain in the valleys with some snow mixing in
on the mountains event, about 65-85% chance of measurable
precipitation for most.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Through 00Z Sunday...Mix of VFR/MVFR conditions through 12-15Z
Saturday at most terminals as deep low pressure centered across
southern QE slowly pulls northeast away from the region. Higher
terrain obscured. Exception at KSLK where prevailing IFR will
be the rule through 12Z. Scattered to numerous -SHRAS likely
through the 06-10Z time range (-SHSN @ KSLK) before tapering
off. Cigs gradually improve after 16-18Z Saturday. Winds west to
northwesterly 10-15 kt with gusts from 18-28 kt expected through
the period, which may cause minor crosswind concerns at
terminals with N-S runway configs. West-northwesterly LLWS from
40-50 kts also likely at selected terminals through 12Z before
slowly abating.
Outlook...
Saturday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Sunday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Sunday Night: VFR. Slight chance FZRA.
Monday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA.
Monday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Definite
SHRA.
Tuesday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Windy with gusts
to 30 kt. Chance SHRA.
Tuesday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
Wednesday: VFR. Chance SHRA.
&&
.MARINE...
A Lake Wind Advisory is in effect through tonight. West to
northwest winds will continue to increase through this evening.
Sustained winds of 15 to 25 kt with gusts to 30 kt, will
increase to 20 to 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt overnight. Waves of
1 to 3 feet will build to 3 to 5 feet.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Taber
NEAR TERM...Taber
SHORT TERM...Taber
LONG TERM...Storm
AVIATION...93
MARINE...BTV
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