438
FXUS61 KBTV 061831
AFDBTV
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
131 PM EST Tue Jan 6 2026
.SYNOPSIS...
The next low pressure system will enter the region this evening,
bringing another round of light snowfall. Some brief sleet and
freezing rain is possible in southern and western areas. Overall,
around two to four inches of snow is expected. Our weather pattern
remains active through the week with several chances for
precipitation, including a warmer system on Friday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 130 PM EST Tuesday...A very weak high pressure is currently
centered very close to Montreal, and the associated low-level
inversion and lack of flow is keeping a deck of low clouds in place
for many areas. An interesting thing to not with current
temperatures is that the coldest readings in Vermont are the marine
sites over the frozen parts of Lake Champlain like Burton Island and
the Milton causeway where temperatures are still in the teens. The
St. Lawrence Valley is the other cold spot with the northeast
channeled flow.
Widespread precipitation makes its way into the region this evening
as a low tracks up the ST. Lawrence Valley. Model guidance has
continued to trend slightly colder. At this point, the precipitation
is likely going to be more or less all snow outside southern Vermont
and parts of the western Adirondacks where warm air aloft advect in
ahead of the precipitation. A widespread two to four inches is
expected for most areas. In the western Adirondacks and southern
vermont, mixed precipitation is likely The precipitation will likely
start as sleet and freezing rain in places. A forming secondary low
in southern New England will mostly end the warm air advection so
dynamical cooling should gradually erase the warm nose overnight and
the precipitation in those areas should eventually change to snow.
Without a strong source of cold air advection, this process could
take awhile, especially in the western Adirondacks.In those areas,
snowfall will likely range in the coating to two inch range.
Precipitation lingers into the day tomorrow. The area of moisture
eventually shrinks and looks to leave the snow growth zone by
afternoon so some drizzle is possible. Areas outside the broad
valleys should stay below freezing, so pockets of isolated freezing
drizzle are possible. Temperatures gradually fall back below
freezing everywhere Wednesday night, but lingering clouds and weak
advection will cause that to take awhile.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
As of 130 PM EST Tuesday...The airmass behind the low pressure system
will be relatively warm for the time of year, with highs rising
above freezing for most places on Thursday. The high pressure will
be centered to the southwest. With brief ridging moving in, skies
may briefly be able to clear but high clouds will quickly be moving
in from the west out ahead of the next storm system on Friday.
Temperatures look non- diurnal Thursday night, with quick drops in
the evening before they rise later in the night with increasing
cloud cover and southerly winds.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 130 PM EST Tuesday...On Friday, a weak surface low will quickly
eject northeast before getting absorbed within the frontal boundary
of a mature cyclone shifting east of James Bay. A deep moisture
plume will race eastwards in progressive flow and 50-55kt 850mb
flow. This will usher in rain and temperatures creeping into the 40s
during the day. Given the warmth and the strength of the jet,
increased wind gusts up to the 90th percentile. The main caveat
seems to be that the LLJ is within the inversion layer, and so winds
may struggle to mix some, but we`ll monitor changes as we are able
to resolve features more accurately going forwards. Precipitation
exits as a cold front moves southeast Friday night into Saturday,
and it may conclude as a little light snow. NBM (and by implication
larger ensemble suites as a whole) have trended cooler Friday night,
which will be good for limiting the consecutive hours above freezing
for our thaw. Low temperatures should range in the mid 20s to mid
30s.
The next system is slated to arrive late Saturday. The cooler air
that will have entered the area means we could again look at a messy
transition from snow to rain as the warm front blasts north in 40-50
kt 850mb southwesterly flow. Sunday will spend much of the day above
freezing until a cold front moves southeast Sunday night concluding
the warm up with a round of orographic snow with another, more
subtle shortwave with precipitation reaching the area next Monday.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Through 18Z Wednesday...A wide range of flight conditions are taking
place with patchy 700-800 ft ceilings across northern New York and
largely 1300-2500 ft ceilings across Vermont. Winds are mainly south
to southeast around 5 knots. As a warm front approaches, these
ceilings should lift, but then snow will initiate and visibility
will begin to decrease below 2SM starting around 23z-03z. The
heaviest snowfall rates will be between about 04z-11z before
activity lifts northeast with a gradual reduction in ceilings
towards 800-1800 ft agl at the same time. At this time, there is
freezing rain parts of the St. Lawrence Valley and southern
Vermont. The highest chance for any mix will be at KRUT or KMSS,
but the overall timing and scale of impacts appears relatively
short lived and minor. In the 04z to 11z time frame, there may
also be a pocket of LLWS that impacts KSLK and KRUT as winds at
2000 ft agl increase towards 30-35 knots. It just barely reaches
either location, and so for now, have left it out from the TAF,
but will note the potential. Scattered to numerous snow showers
will thin by about 14z, and there may be pockets of freezing
drizzle as cloud ice diminishes. For now, highlighted this
possibility with PROB30s. Flow should begin becoming more
northwesterly after 14z as a cold front pushes southeast.
Outlook...
Wednesday Night: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. Slight chance
SHSN.
Thursday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. NO SIG WX.
Thursday Night: VFR. Slight chance RA, Slight chance FZRA.
Friday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Likely RA, Chance
FZRA.
Friday Night: Mainly MVFR, with areas IFR possible. Chance SHRA,
Chance SHSN.
Saturday: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Likely RA, Chance
SHRA.
Saturday Night: Mainly IFR, with areas MVFR possible. Likely RA,
Chance SN.
Sunday: Mainly MVFR, with local VFR possible. Chance SN.
&&
.EQUIPMENT...
NOAA Weather Radio station WXM-44, transmitting from Mt.
Ascutney, Vermont, on frequency 162.475 MHz is non-operational
at this time. NWS technicians have diagnosed the problem, but
repairs will likely not be able to occur for quite some time due
to circumstances beyond our control. Therefore, the time of
return to service is currently unknown. The following NOAA
Weather Radio transmitters may be able to provide service during
this outage: WWG 50 from Burke Mtn, VT at 162.425 MHz and WNG
546 from Hanover, NH at 162.525 MHz.
The Colchester Reef meteorological station is out of service.
This site is not serviced by the NWS and there isn`t an
estimated return to service at present. Use extra caution when
navigating the broad waters of Lake Champlain. Please contact us
if you observe winds significantly deviating from the
recreational forecast.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...Winter Weather Advisory until 5 AM EST Wednesday for NYZ026-
027-029-030-087.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Myskowski
NEAR TERM...Myskowski
SHORT TERM...Myskowski
LONG TERM...Haynes
AVIATION...Haynes
EQUIPMENT...Team BTV
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