329
FXUS61 KBTV 170641
AFDBTV
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
241 AM EDT Fri Jul 17 2026
.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
As of 240 AM EDT Friday...
The severe threat for Saturday has increased.
&&
.KEY MESSAGES...
As of 240 AM EDT Friday...
1. Thunderstorms and heavy rain expected Saturday afternoon and
evening.
2. Seasonable weather and intervals of wildfire smoke expected
over the next few days.
3. Frontal passages bring chances for showers on both Tuesday
and Wednesday before high pressure dominates our weather on Thursday
and Friday.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
As of 240 AM EDT Friday...
KEY MESSAGE 1: An anomalously strong low for the time of year (sub 1000
mb) looks to take a general track up the St. Lawrence Valley or
close to that Saturday into Saturday night. Showers will be more
widespread close to the international border on Saturday as the warm
front and center of the low would be closer. A powerful cold front
will come through in the afternoon and evening, bringing a round of
showers and storms. The airmass ahead of the system will be
relatively cool and not conducive to high instability. Mean HREF
SBCAPE values are around 500 J during this time frame. However, due
to the strength of the low, there will be strong shear and dynamics.
0-6 KM shear is forecast to be in the 40-50 KT range. One thing
lacking will be a significant surface wind shift/convergence with
the front, with southwesterly synoptic flow expected behind the
front until the center of the surface low pushes east. Height falls
will be quite significant though. Based on this information, the SPC
upgraded the region to a split between a slight and marginal risk.
These storms will contain heavy rain but with strong background
flow, the storms will move quickly and minimize the flooding threat.
There also does not look to be a stalled axis of rain along the warm
front on the front side that often occurs in these setups. However,
the threat for flooding cannot be completely ruled out if areas see
multiple rounds of heavy rain, with the greatest threat of that
being along the international border.
KEY MESSAGE 2: Highs look to be in the 70s to mid 80s over the next few
days, with slightly cooler conditions on Sunday. Lows will generally
be in the 50s and dew points will be relatively low. The wildfire
smoke makes a return for Saturday as flow becomes westerly to
southwesterly, bringing the smoke that is currently over the Midwest
and Great Lakes into the region. Thankfully, behind the cold front
on Saturday, winds eventually become northwesterly and push the
smoke back to the south. The source of the smoke is fires in western
Ontario.
KEY MESSAGE 3: Showers wills spread into the region on Tuesday as a
warm front lifts across our area associated with a low pressure
system which is north of the Great Lakes. Chance for precipitation
will continue into Wednesday as cold front crosses our area
associated with the same low pressure system. Will need to monitor
as we get closer for potential for strong or severe storms and also
for heavy rainfall. Drier weather is then expected for both Thursday
and Friday as high pressure ridge builds over our area.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Through 06Z Saturday...Through 06Z Saturday... Currently LIFR
conditions at RUT in fog. Seems fog will remain until it lifts
around 12z, but should be limited to just RUT as other sites have
had drier air move into the area. Otherwise, light winds and VFR
conditions at all sites.
Outlook...
Saturday: VFR. Definite SHRA, Chance TSRA.
Saturday Night: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. Definite
SHRA, Chance TSRA.
Sunday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight chance SHRA.
Sunday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Monday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Monday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
Tuesday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA,
Slight chance TSRA.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.
&&
$$
WHAT HAS CHANGED...Myskowski
DISCUSSION...Myskowski/Neiles
AVIATION...Neiles
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