032
FXUS61 KBTV 181944
AFDBTV
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
344 PM EDT Thu Jun 18 2026
.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
As of 308 PM EDT Thursday...
The Tornado Watch has expired.
&&
.KEY MESSAGES...
As of 308 PM EDT Thursday...
1. As the risk of severe thunderstorms and heavy rain ends this
afternoon, more localized and non-severe thunderstorms will remain
possible through this evening, especially near the International
Border. Additional showers with a slight chance of thunder will
occur at times through each of the next three days with limited
impacts expected.
2. A Wind Advisory remains through 8 PM, although the threat of
damaging winds has decreased. Breezy, but less strong, winds will
continue through Saturday associated with the low pressure system as
it slowly exits to our northeast.
3. Seasonable Late June Temperatures Early-Mid Next Week
&&
.DISCUSSION...
As of 344 PM EDT Thursday...
KEY MESSAGE 1: A dynamically forced line of heavy rain showers with
embedded severe thunderstorms materialized today, but thankfully
instability proved too limited to see more significant winds in
most of the region. Moving into the evening, because the
surface cold front lags behind this line, there will be
additional shower and thunderstorm chances, primarily in far
northern New York where a line of thunderstorms has move along
the St. Lawrence River Valley, and perhaps swinging eastward
into Vermont. The near storm environment is very different than
the one we have seen with the earlier impactful thunderstorms,
with less precipitable water associated with dry mid-level air
and lower shear, with effective shear only near 30 knots. So the
main hazard with any additional thunderstorms will be frequent
lightning. This will be the trend into the weekend with
additional rounds of showers, with a lack of wind shear and
cooler temperatures we don`t expect any severe weather. A broad
upper level trough with embedded upper level circulations will
promote periods of numerous showers, such as on Friday evening
and Saturday morning in particular looking rather raw for this
time of year with breezy west winds and cool temperatures into
the 50s. A final round of scattered showers on Sunday afternoon
looks less certain with the forcing being unclear, but signal in
increasing precipitation chances is consistent with diurnally
driven instability as the air mass moderates a bit and we have
lingering moist low level air in place.
KEY MESSAGE 2: We have seen substantial wind damage today
despite largely underachieving on observed winds so far through
mid afternoon. Given the reports and continued potential for
gusty west to southwest winds this evening, the Wind Advisory
remains in effect through 8 PM. The winds aloft are largely
westerly at this point, which leads to some concerns of
downsloping enhancement into the mid-slope areas in the eastern
Adirondacks and southern Greens, with areas like Ticonderoga
likely to see additional 45 to 50 MPH wind gusts and perhaps
into areas like Bridgewater later this evening as westerly 850
millibar flow peaks. As with the thunderstorm potential,
impactful winds through the next couple of days are not expected
although gradient westerly flow on Friday and northwest flow on
Saturday will support deeper mixing. Gusts will be frequent but
more notable in the higher terrain as apparent temperature
(wind chills) fall into the 40s at elevations above 3000 feet.
KEY MESSAGE 3: Hazardous weather is not expected in the Days 4-7
period. 12Z NWP suite maintains broad NWLY mid-upper level flow for
late in the weekend through the middle portion of next week.
Uncertainty associated with timing of embedded shortwave troughs
remains, with current idea that closed upper low approaching from
the upper Great Lakes will bring widespread showers across nrn NY
and VT on Sunday. Associated cloud cover should keep highs mainly in
the 70s, with some upper 60s possible in the nrn Adirondacks.
Additional (smaller) chances for rain showers exist Monday and
Tuesday. Gradual building of 700-500mb heights Tuesday-Wednesday
should allow temperatures to trend slightly warmer for Days 6/7,
with valley highs trending into the lower 80s. Humidity levels will
remain modest, with dewpoints generally in the 50s to near 60.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Through 18Z Friday...Active afternoon for aviation weather with band
of strong to locally severe thunderstorms pushing eastward across
the remainder of Vermont through 19Z. Brief IFR conditions in heavy
rain, along with gusty winds up to 40kt can be expected in
association with the convection. In the wake of this line, strong
pressure gradient will maintain gusty winds through 02Z this
evening, with wind gusts of 30-40kt expected, likely highest at
the NY TAF locations late this afternoon and this evening. A
few additional showers and thunderstorms can also be expected as
a secondary front moves across the North Country. However,
these storms are not expected to become severe. Some periods of
LLWS will persist through midnight followed by improving
aviation weather conditions after midnight into Friday morning.
Looking for moderate W-SW winds Friday morning and VFR
conditions with skies generally SCT-BKN040-060 thru 18Z Friday.
Outlook...
Friday Night: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Chance SHRA,
Slight chance TSRA.
Saturday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Likely SHRA,
Slight chance TSRA.
Saturday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance
SHRA.
Sunday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Likely SHRA, Chance
TSRA.
Sunday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Monday: VFR. Chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA.
Monday Night: VFR. Likely SHRA, Slight chance TSRA.
Tuesday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA,
Slight chance TSRA.
&&
.MARINE...
As of 308 PM EDT Thursday...
A Lake Wind Advisory remains in effect into this evening along
with the large scale Wind Advisory. A stubborn stable layer has
made for only intermittently strong south/southeast winds today;
however, there is some potential for better mixing as drier air
moves in from the west. Overall winds will tend to be in the 15
to 25 knot range with waves 1 to 3 feet on the broad waters and
inland sea in particular. Winds overnight will trend westerly
and could continue to gust at times to 20 to 25 knots even if
sustained winds remain closer to 10 to 15 knots.
&&
.CLIMATE...
As of 308 PM EDT Thursday...
Daily record precipitation amount was achieved for the Saranac
Lake Area, so far at 1.16" for the day. A daily record
precipitation for Montpelier is possible as well, with the
current amount at 0.73".
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...Wind Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for VTZ001>009-011-
016>020.
NY...Wind Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for NYZ026>031-034-
035-087.
&&
$$
WHAT HAS CHANGED...Kutikoff
DISCUSSION...Banacos/Kutikoff
AVIATION...Banacos
MARINE...Kutikoff
CLIMATE...NWS BTV
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