290
FXUS61 KBTV 291836
AFDBTV
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
236 PM EDT Wed Jul 29 2026
.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
As of 235 PM EDT Wednesday...
The flood threat has decreased. While an isolated area of flash
flooding cannot be ruled out in central/southern Vermont or Essex
County NY, the heaviest rain has remained to the south and west.
&&
.KEY MESSAGES...
As of 235 PM EDT Wednesday...
1. Periods of rain continue tonight through tomorrow.
2. Trending drier heading into the first half of the weekend.
3. Thunderstorm potential for Sunday and Monday, followed by a
warming trend.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
As of 235 PM EDT Wednesday...
KEY MESSAGE 1: A surface low has tracked north through southern New
England and into southern Vermont today, bringing an area of rain
back into the region. The rain will attempt to continue north, but
the low will be occluding and weakening. Rainfall rates with the
band continue to decrease, with peak hourly amounts mostly around
and below 0.3 inches. The rain will continue to lighten as the
afternoon and evening progress, though some light rain will likely
re-enter northern areas. Overall, around 1-3 inches has fallen, with
additional amounts up to around an inch possible. Outside the main
area of low pressure, areas of convection developed in the immediate
St. Lawrence Valley this morning. A narrow strip of 2-3 inches has
fallen in the Ogdensburg area and south, but it has not been enough
to cause any flooding. The remaining convection is currently in the
process of weakening. The terrain there is not very susceptible to
flash flooding and it would take notably more rain to cause any. As
the main area of low pressure makes its way north, the synoptic rain
and clouds will minimize the instability, and subsidence in the
areas just outside the shield of precipitation should start to
dampen any additional convection as well. While widespread rainfall
will continue into tomorrow, it will become scattered and mostly
confined to eastern areas, except in the afternoon when diurnal
heating will cause some weak convection. Overall, the flood threat
has decreased. While an isolated area of flash flooding still cannot
be completely ruled out in southern/central Vermont and Essex
County, it is looking increasingly less likely.
KEY MESSAGE 2: The upper-level low becomes cut off and gradually exits
heading through Friday, though the dynamics will be too weak and too
far east to produce any more significant precipitation. However,
isolated showers are possible on Friday due to the diurnal heating.
Ridging briefly becomes established on Saturday, and the day should
be mostly dry. Temperatures will be seasonable during this stretch,
with highs in the 70s to mid 80s and lows in the 50s and low 60s.
KEY MESSAGE 3: On Sunday and Monday, showers and thunderstorms will move
along a trough of low pressure. While the air mass will have plenty of
moisture to tap into, we are looking at quick moving air mass
thunderstorms. Given the wet antecedent conditions, we will
continue to monitor this system for any potential impacts.
As the trough exits our region, high pressure will build in with dry
and stable air. Tuesday and Wednesday will be significantly warmer than
average, with valley locations reaching int the mid 80s for daytime
highs and mid 50s to mid 60s for nighttime lows.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Through 18Z Thursday...Rain showers will continue through the evening
and overnight hours. Occasional heavy rain bands could bring IFR
conditions, especially in southern Vermont. As we move into the
overnight hours, cloud decks will lower and some fog will begin to
form. The Saint Lawrence Valley could be especially susceptible to
fog tonight given the large amount of rainfall received during the
day. Light rain showers will linger into the morning hours as
conditions slowly improve.
Outlook...
Thursday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
Friday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Friday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Saturday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Saturday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA.
Sunday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Likely SHRA, Slight
chance TSRA.
Sunday Night: Mainly IFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance SHRA,
Slight chance TSRA.
Monday: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. Chance SHRA, Slight chance
TSRA.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...Flood Watch until 8 PM EDT this evening for VTZ009>011-018>021.
NY...Flood Watch until 8 PM EDT this evening for NYZ034-035.
&&
$$
WHAT HAS CHANGED...Myskowski
DISCUSSION...Langbauer/Myskowski
AVIATION...Langbauer
|
