900
FXUS61 KBTV 292342
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
642 PM EST Sat Nov 29 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A low pressure system passing to our west tomorrow will support
periods of light snow, gusty south winds, and a transition to
rain in the wide valleys. Much cooler air will follow for
Monday. Then another low pressure system will likely pass to our
south on Tuesday, which may support a widespread snowfall in
the region. An Arctic front is probable for Thursday, bringing
chances for squall- like showers and sharply colder air.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 157 PM EST Saturday...We`ll have active, if not overly
impactful, weather early Sunday morning through late Sunday
night as a large winter storm passes to our west. Guidance is
well-clustered with a track west of Ottawa as it moves east-
northeastward into southern Quebec tomorrow evening. A strong
south to southeast jet centered near the 850 millibar level will
ramp up during the day out ahead of the system`s dry slot, with
the core gradually sliding northeastward through northern New
York and northern Vermont. However, it seems unlikely that the
strongest winds aloft will coincide with the dry slot; hence
there is a low chance of damaging winds or even wind gusts above
40 MPH aside from mountain summits and in the vicinity of Lake
Champlain. A similar event per CIPS analogs on December 28th
2020 resulted in localized 50 MPH gusts in places such as Malone
and Alburgh, but this looks like a wetter scenario with
precipitation helping to reduce potential for winds getting
this. If confidence increases on wind gusts exceeding 45 MPH, a
Wind Advisory may be needed.

Said precipitation will be all snow at the onset but a lot of it
will be very light initially as the better lift and moisture
stays closer to the low pressure system and associated upper
level wave. That being said, with cold surfaces snow will easily
accumulate and a poorly timed snowfall, even a small amount,
could still impact travel. More substantial snow accumulations
are favored during the daytime hours as the system makes its
closest pass and its warm front provides a lifting mechanism for
short bursts of moderate snowfall rates. There is a weak signal
for snowfall rates as high as 1"/hour during the
afternoon/evening in a band translating northeastward in eastern
Vermont. The residence time for these short periods of heavier
snow should be brief enough to limit total snowfall, which
remains mainly in the 0.5" to 2" range.

The aforementioned south-southeasterly jet will likely cause
the eastern Champlain Valley to see particularly little snow and
also help boost temperatures above freezing. That being said,
the warming aloft will not be particularly large, such that it
will be yet another event with some snow to rain and one where
much of the precipitation will tend to fall as snow even as
surface temperatures rise into the middle 30s. Through about 1
PM, the dominant precipitation type could switch to rain in far
western Rutland County, and then the changeover may expand
northwards throughout much of the Champlain Valley during the
mid afternoon, and Upper Valley and St. Lawrence Valley by
evening. Again, would not be surprised if this precipitation is
more of a wet, light snow, but think continued warming through
the evening could reduce the travel impacts as roads trend wet
aside from higher elevations.

Sunday night the system`s cold front will finally cross the
region, with some elevationally dependent rain/snow showers
anticipated. Higher confidence in additional snow accumulations
exists in the Adirondacks with some Lake Ontario response and
upslope southwesterly flow being points in favor of numerous
showers. They should progress eastward after midnight with the
front driving some organized showers into northern Vermont. The
front does not look sharp enough to provide a risk of flash
freeze conditions, but temperatures should fall back below
freezing overnight in many areas. Keep an eye on future
forecasts and road conditions with regards to Monday morning
travel given this scenario.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
As of 157 PM EST Saturday...A large polar high pressure area
will slide into our region, with its center passing to our
south. As such, a brisk west to northwest wind will gradually
relax as will any morning snow showers. The low level air mass
may be the coldest we`ve had yet this season as the snow growth
zone near the surface, hence shallow clouds could support
mountain snow before skies clear. High temperatures could be
those in the morning, as they will struggle to warm against the
cold air advection. While temperatures aloft will begin to
rebound, it will be too late to make a meaningful difference;
surface temperatures will mainly be steady in the mid 20s to low
30s through the day in Vermont and upper 10s to low 20s in
northern New York (mid to upper 20s Champlain Valley).

Clouds will arrive and thicken in the typical top-down fashion
Monday night ahead of a large open wave trough from the west. In
response to increasing upper level divergence and the associated
lift, precipitation will spread through the area, with much of it
probably virga initially. The bulk of snow will hold off until
Tuesday. However, moistening of lower levels could lead to sudden
steady snow developing, especially as one goes farther west in our
region. In Vermont, except northeastern areas, and northeastern New
York there is currently about a 10-20% chance of measurable
precipitation/light snow accumulation through daybreak Tuesday, and
about 25-45% in St. Lawrence County where impacts to the Tuesday
morning commute are more likely at this time. The cold and dry air
mass in place will support a fast fall in temperatures potentially,
then as clouds move in there could be a reversal. Unsurprisingly,
the low temperatures spread is higher than typical in our region
related to how these radiational effects could play out. Just
something to keep an eye on as current low temperatures are as low
as the single digits above zero in the Adirondacks and Northeast
Kingdom.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 126 PM EST Saturday...The center of a coastal storm passes by
to the southeast Tuesday into Tuesday night, bringing some snow to
the region. The models have yet to converge on a storm track, with
the options ranging between tracking over southern New England to a
couple hundred miles southeast of Martha`s Vineyard. Under any of
the scenarios, parts of southern Vermont should at least some light
snow, but its snowfall rates and northern extent remain unclear. The
ensemble consensus favors a more southeastern track at this time,
leading toward less snow. GEFS/EPS/CAN ensemble probabilities of 4+
inches of snow are generally up to around 50 percent in southern
Vermont and 7+ inches are up to around 33 percent. These
probabilities fall pretty quickly heading to the north.

A mostly dry day should occur on Wednesday with cold air advection.
An arctic front looks to pass through on Thursday, bringing the
potential for organized snow showers and squalls. The front should
feature a sharp boundary, and have some instability and decent
frontogenesis, but the strength of the snow showers will remain
uncertain until the event comes closer. Behind the front, the
coldest air of the season will arrive, with temperatures falling
into the single digits most places Thursday night. Behind it,
temperatures moderate a little, but the colder and active wintry
pattern will continue!

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Through 00Z Monday...VFR prevails across much of the region this
evening, with the lone exception being KEFK where OVC ceilings
continue to hover around 2800 ft. Once this lower cloud dissipates
toward 05z tonight, expect VFR to continue for a brief period.
However, ceilings will quickly lower from west to east from 08z
onward, generally reaching MVFR between 12z and 18z Sunday.
Snow enters the region from southwest to northeast tomorrow
morning, generally after 08z. There will be periods of light to
moderate snow, likely remaining most consistent at KMSS/KSLK
and more scattered at KBTV/KPBG. Snow will likely mix with
and/or change to rain at KRUT/KBTV, KPBG. Visibility reduced to
1-3SM in any snow, but improving to 3-5SM in rain or rain/snow
mix. Light and variable winds overnight will become gusty out of
the S/SW after 12z Sunday. Gusts of 20 to 30 kt are expected,
with gusts to 40 kt possible at KPBG/KBTV. LLWS will also be
present at most terminals from 15z onward.



Outlook...

Sunday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance SHSN,
Chance RA, Chance SN.
Monday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. NO SIG WX.
Monday Night: VFR. Slight chance SN.
Tuesday: Mainly MVFR and IFR, with areas VFR possible. Likely SN.
Tuesday Night: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. Chance SN.
Wednesday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance
SHSN.
Thursday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance SHSN.

&&

.MARINE...
A Lake Wind Advisory is not currently in effect as winds have
turned more westerly and will continue to gradually diminish
today under 20 knots.

However, another period of strong lake winds is expected Sunday.
Large scale southerly flow will result in sustained winds over
25 knots, and exceeding 30 knots for much of the day, in the
Inland Sea and Broad Waters of Lake Champlain. Expect
substantial seiche action as waves build 2 to 4 feet in the
northern waters, and 4 to 6 feet on the broad waters. A slight
easterly component to the wind will favor areas like Cumberland
Bay with some of the largest waves through the afternoon before
shifting more due southerly.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
NOAA Weather Radio station WXM-44, transmitting from Mt.
Ascutney, Vermont, on frequency 162.475 MHz is non-operational
at this time. NWS technicians have diagnosed the problem, but
repairs will likely not be able to occur for quite some time due
to circumstances beyond our control. Therefore, the time of
return to service is currently unknown. The following NOAA
Weather Radio transmitters may be able to provide service during
this outage: WWG 50 from Burke Mtn, VT at 162.425 MHz and WNG
546 from Hanover, NH at 162.525 MHz.

Equipment malfunctions at the Colchester Reef meteorological
station will likely leave it inoperable for an extended period
of time. This site is not serviced by the NWS. Technicians do
not currently have an estimated return to service for this
station. Use extra caution when navigating the broad waters of
Lake Champlain, and please contact us if you observe winds
significantly deviating from the forecast.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Kutikoff
NEAR TERM...Kutikoff
SHORT TERM...Kutikoff
LONG TERM...Myskowski
AVIATION...Hastings
MARINE...Team BTV
EQUIPMENT...Team BTV