847
FXUS61 KBTV 011135
AFDBTV
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
635 AM EST Thu Jan 1 2026
.SYNOPSIS...
Widespread snow continues early this morning, with most areas seeing
a total of 1 to 4 inches of snow by daybreak, and 4 to 9 inches
total expected in the St. Lawrence Valley. Seasonably cold weather
is anticipated for the start of the New Year along with occasional
chances for mountain and lake effect snow showers. Moderating
temperatures are expected for the middle of next week ahead of
another weather system.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
As of 634 AM EST Thursday...
The Winter Storm Warning and Winter Weather Advisory have ended
as snow tapers off this morning. Previous discussion below:
Snow is ongoing across portions of the forecast area, including
southern and central Vermont, the Adirondacks, the St. Lawrence
Valley, the Greens, and portions of the northern Champlain Valley
this morning due to Lake Ontario enhanced moisture and convergence
along a stationary frontal boundary draped across northern New York
and the international border. At the moment, it is unknown exactly
how much snow has fallen across the St. Lawrence Valley and western
Adirondacks, but radar returns clearly indicate a heavy band likely
dropping several inches of snow. NY Mesonet sites estimate 1-4
inches of snow has already fallen across St. Lawrence County.
Temperatures remain somewhat mild in the upper teens to mid 20s
early this morning, but we anticipate a cold front to sweep
through the region over the next several hours.
This cold front will drop temperatures and spread snow to areas that
haven`t yet seen snow tonight like parts of Champlain Valley,
Northeast Kingdom, and Connecticut River Valley. Winds are also
expected to increase and turn west/northwesterly with the passage of
this front as we head into the daylight hours of the first day of
the year. This will cause snow to blow around quite a bit even after
precipitation has ended today. Temperatures should hover in the
single digits and teens for much of today with no clear diurnal
trend, plummeting quickly as the sun goes down this afternoon and
evening. As mentioned, gusty winds will make it feel even colder
with widespread negative wind chills.
Cold weather will continue Thursday night into Friday. Temperatures
on Friday morning will be very chilly, with low temperatures 0 F and
below. Winds will abate, though, keeping us from having harsh wind
chills. We don`t moderate much on Friday with mainly 10s to near 20.
A subtle trough will angle southeast late Friday into the overnight
hours. This should lure some lake effect snow into our forecast area
and could also produce a few terrain snow showers of its own along
the international border. At this time, amounts appear likely to be
on the lighter side, just a couple tenths of an inch for any
accumulations. Another cold night will pass Friday night into
Saturday, with low temperatures in the single digits to near 0
again.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY/...
As of 1250 AM EST Thursday...Cold and dry conditions are expected for
the most part on Saturday, with high temperatures well below normal,
mainly in the teens to mid 20s. Some very light, isolated snow
showers are possible (under 20% chance), especially in the Northeast
Kingdom and mountains Saturday morning with light northwesterly flow
on the tail end of a subtle shortwave.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 139 AM EST Thursday...Weak s/w energy associated with
mid/upper lvl trof wl result in scattered snow showers on Sat
night into Sunday, but given pw values only in the 0.15 to
0.25" range, any qpf/snowfall wl be light.
Guidance continues to support a pattern shift for mid to late
next week as a series of warm frnts lift acrs our region, along
with building heights acrs the eastern CONUS. The large scale
synoptic pattern goes from trof on Monday/Tues to zonal flow by
mid week, before ridging develops by late week. This supports
below normal temps thru Tues, followed by a day or two of
normal, before above normal temps arrive late week. The
associated lift with each boundary wl produce a period of mostly
light precip every couple of days, starting as mostly snow, but
as thermal profiles warm, a transition to a mix/rain is possible
by mid/late week.
Temps mainly in the teens Sunday/Monday, warm into the 20s for
Tues and upper 20s to mid/upper 30s by Thurs. Lows generally
start in the single digits above/below zero, but warm into the
20s late in the period. If crnt trends continue with sfc high
pres directly overhead, Monday morning could be the coldest
morning of the next 7 days with -10F SLK/NEK to 0F CPV. Still
some questions on high pres position, given the center is to
our south and flow is west/northwest aloft, which could result
in some linger moisture/clouds,.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Through 12Z Friday...Radar shows areas of light snow with
pockets of embedded heavier snow shower activity crossing
central/northern Vermont associated with our arctic front. Have
VFR/MVFR conditions to start with tempo group for IFR vis at
SLK/EFK and MPV for a couple of hours this morning with vis in
the 1-2SM range. Otherwise, as surface dewpoints continue to
drop into the single digits expect decreasing areal coverage of
snow shower activity with mostly VFR flight conditions
developing by 15z. Some lingering MVFR cigs and vis possible at
SLK/MPV and EFK with areas of blowing snow. Otherwise, gusty
northwest winds 15 to 25 knots slowly weaken by sunset and shift
back to the southwest.
Outlook...
Friday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Friday Night: VFR. Isolated SHSN.
Saturday: VFR. Isolated SHSN.
Saturday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance
SHSN.
Sunday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Slight chance SHSN.
Sunday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. NO SIG WX.
Monday: VFR. Slight chance SHSN.
&&
.EQUIPMENT...
NOAA Weather Radio station WXM-44, transmitting from Mt.
Ascutney, Vermont, on frequency 162.475 MHz is non-operational
at this time. NWS technicians have diagnosed the problem, but
repairs will likely not be able to occur for quite some time due
to circumstances beyond our control. Therefore, the time of
return to service is currently unknown. The following NOAA
Weather Radio transmitters may be able to provide service during
this outage: WWG 50 from Burke Mtn, VT at 162.425 MHz and WNG
546 from Hanover, NH at 162.525 MHz.
The Colchester Reef meteorological station is out of service.
This site is not serviced by the NWS and there isn`t an
estimated return to service at present. Use extra caution when
navigating the broad waters of Lake Champlain. Please contact us
if you observe winds significantly deviating from the
recreational forecast.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Storm
NEAR TERM...Storm
SHORT TERM...Storm
LONG TERM...Taber
AVIATION...Taber
EQUIPMENT...Team BTV
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