842
FXUS61 KBTV 222325
AFDBTV
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
725 PM EDT Mon Jun 22 2026
.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
As of 226 PM EDT Monday...
No significant changes.
&&
.KEY MESSAGES...
As of 226 PM EDT Monday...
1. Widespread rain this evening and tonight.
2. Mostly dry with a few isolated showers mid-week.
3. Showery conditions return Thursday through early next week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
As of 226 PM EDT Monday...
KEY MESSAGE 1: An area of low pressure moves through the region this
evening and tonight, bringing an area of stratiform rain. The center
will track from the Southern Tier of New York northeast across far
southern Vermont and into the Gulf of Maine. This keeps the region
on the cooler northern side and will prevent any thunderstorms or
severe weather. Rainfall rates will be light to moderate and this is
expected to prevent any flood risk. Rainfall rates should be under
0.25 inches per hour. A deformation axis looks to form over parts of
southern Vermont this evening and could briefly lead to locally
higher rainfall rates. A few areas of elevated convection may
develop tonight behind the stratiform rain but they will be isolated
and quick moving. Overall, around 1-1.5 inches of rain is expected
across southern Vermont, with totals dropping off very quickly
heading north. Less than a tenth of an inch is expected in northern
areas and along the international border. The precipitation exits
before dawn tomorrow.
KEY MESSAGE 2: While large scale troughing will remain in place through
mid-week, most shortwave activity will stay to the north over
Quebec, bringing a drier stretch. However, cool temperatures aloft
and diurnal heating will cause chances for isolated showers. A
couple showers are possible over northern New York Tuesday afternoon
where the most clearing will occur. Isolated to scattered showers
are most likely on Wednesday near the international border where the
synoptic forcing will be the strongest. However, those days will
still be almost completely dry.
KEY MESSAGE 3: The weak ridge providing a short reprieve from the
showery weather will give way on Thursday afternoon. At the crest of
the ridge axis, the shift in air masses with sufficient moisture
will generate a few showers, mainly across the Northeast Kingdom
early in the afternoon. The bulk of activity will be later in the
evening, as some mid-level vorticity ahead of the base of an
incoming trough and marginal daytime instability of about 300-500
J/kg will support some activity along the incoming boundary. Given
how light the flow is until you get above 400mb, any thunderstorms
will be garden variety. A broad, disorganized surface low will
translated eastwards overnight, which will allow rain chances to
continue into Friday.
The low will be just east of the region by Friday afternoon.
Although better synoptic forcing for ascent will be east, the upper
trough will still exert some influence. We may be able to generate
somewhat greater instability, and there will be some shear, but
we`ll have to monitor how much mid-level dry air is present going
forward.
Although a ridge will try to build in for Saturday, yet another
upper trough will move in from the west. It could produce some more
shower activity Saturday into Sunday, but it appears quite a bit
weaker than the last few series of troughs. Temperatures will fairly
seasonable during this stretch, and then begin to hem towards the
warmer than average for the new week as an expansive upper high
builds east across the central CONUS.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Through 00Z Wednesday...Steadiest and most coverage of rain
showers moves through by 04z with isold -shra thru 10z. Winds
will be Lgt/Vrbl and that combination will result in a trend
towards 2500-3500 ft agl ceilings. Southeasterly flow will
result in lower ceilings east of the Greens and Adirondacks, and
so some IFR ceilings are expected at KMPV from 06z-14z.
Additionally, the surface low may bring additional light drizzle
or rain overnight, mainly across Vermont. After 12z, very slow
improvements to ceilings are expected with a mix of MVFR and VFR
by 15z-17z and north to northwest winds of 4-9 knots with these
trends continuing into Tuesday evening.
Outlook...
Tuesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Thursday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA.
Thursday Night: VFR. Definite SHRA, Chance TSRA.
Friday: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. Likely SHRA, Chance TSRA.
Friday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
Saturday: VFR. Chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.
&&
$$
WHAT HAS CHANGED...Myskowski
DISCUSSION...Myskowski/Haynes
AVIATION...SLW
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