274
FXUS61 KBTV 120648
AFDBTV
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
248 AM EDT Fri Jun 12 2026
.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
As of 245 AM EDT Friday...
No significant changes have been made at this time. Well above
normal temperatures are expected today with a few strong to severe
thunderstorms possible this afternoon and evening.
&&
.KEY MESSAGES...
As of 245 AM EDT Friday...
1. Heat Advisory in effect today with above normal temperatures
expected to continue through the weekend. Noticeable cool-down to
start next week.
2. Strong to Severe thunderstorms possible this afternoon and
evening and again on Sunday.
3. More seasonable temperatures return next week with continued
chances for showers and a few thunderstorms.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
As of 245 AM EDT Friday...
KEY MESSAGE 1: Today will be the hottest day associated with the
ongoing period of well above normal temperatures. We will see
temperatures climb into the 90s in most, if not all locations. We
will include a climate section late in the AFD to highlight the
potential record highs today at all of out climate sites. In
addition to these warmer temperatures, dewpoints will remain between
68-72 degrees leading to heat indices in the 92-100 degree range.
The Heat Advisory remains in effect from noon to 8 PM for the
Champlain Valley in Vermont and New York as well as the lower
Connecticut River Valley where the highest heat indices are
expected. The good new is that "slightly" cooler air will filter in
behind a cold front for this weekend. High temperatures on Saturday
and Sunday will only be in the 80s with dewpoints down in the 50s
instead of the 60s. Another cold front will move through on Sunday
which will bring much more seasonal air to the region to start the
week with high temperatures in the upper 60s to mid 70s on Monday.
KEY MESSAGE 2: There are two rounds of thunderstorms that we are
currently watching with the first event expected to unfold this
afternoon. With temperatures in the 90s and dewpoints in the 60s to
low 70s, we will have ample instability this afternoon and evening.
However, the one thing we are really lacking today is shear. The
latest CAMs show between 1500 and 2500 J/kg of CAPE developing this
afternoon but deep layer shear will likely be limited to 20-25
knots. The shear should be sufficient help thunderstorms become
organized but the fear as that near vertical updrafts could become
contaminated by the downdraft as rain falls through the storm. We
could see a few supercells develop given the environmental
parameters but may not be long-lived unless we see an uptick in deep
layer shear. In addition, the forcing will come through very
piecemeal with the actual cold front, wind shift, and dewpoint
boundary being between 2-4 hours offset. This will likely limit
convergence along the leading edge of the cold front and thus limit
the potential for widespread strong to severe storms. A few strong
to severe storms will still be possible this afternoon and evening,
nevertheless, given the copious amount of instability present.
On Sunday, a much stronger cold front is slated to move through
during the afternoon hours and bring an abrupt pattern change to
more seasonal temperatures. The strong thermal gradient associated
with the cold front will yield strong frontogenesis/convergence
along the frontal boundary and help interact with a sufficiently
unstable air mass with more deep layer shear than is present today.
The AI models and machine learning algorithms are actually flagging
Sunday to be the more active severe weather day which actually fits
the conceptual model of a strong change in air mass equating to
stronger thunderstorms. The Storm Prediction Center has a slight
risk for day 4 just to our south and it seems reasonable that we
will see a northward extension in the coming days if model trends
continue to look as favorable as they do today.
KEY MESSAGE 3: Mean longwave troughing is favored to settle over the
Great Lakes region with cyclonic flow aloft across the Northeast.
The beginning of the week will likely feature transient low level
ridging with temperatures in the 70s. Behind the ridge, southwest
flow through mid week should allow for some warming with some
locations reaching the low 80s. This and subtle embedded trough
coupled with cyclonic flow aloft could promote some daily shower
chances Tuesday through Thursday. Model consensus points to a more
consolidated front potentially moving through late week that could
increase shower/thunderstorm chances. Overall, a fairly pleasant week
is expected with increasing shower/thunderstorm chances possible for
late in the week.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Through 06Z Saturday...Clearing clouds will favor some fog/stratus
formation at the usual suspects of MPV/SLK/EFK through 12Z.
These locations will have the best chances of IFR conditions
this morning. VFR returns for all terminals by 13Z with heat
building. A trough will pass through 18- 02Z promoting shower
and thunderstorm chances. Some gusts could be strong should a
thunderstorm move into the vicinity of a terminal. Showers could
also produce IFR or lower VIS with localized heavy showers
possible.
Outlook...
Saturday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Saturday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Sunday: VFR. Chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA.
Sunday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Definite
SHRA, Chance TSRA.
Monday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight chance SHRA.
Monday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
&&
.CLIMATE...
Record High Temperatures:
June 12:
KBTV: 94/2017
KMPV: 88/2017
KPBG: 94/2017
KMSS: 89/2005
KSLK: 90/1933
Record High Minimum Temperatures:
June 12:
KBTV: 71/2017
KPBG: 67/2017
KSLK: 62/1996
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...Heat Advisory from noon today to 8 PM EDT this evening for
VTZ001-002-005-009-011-021.
NY...Heat Advisory from noon today to 8 PM EDT this evening for
NYZ028-035.
&&
$$
WHAT HAS CHANGED...Clay
DISCUSSION...Clay/Boyd
AVIATION...Boyd
CLIMATE...NWS BTV
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