229
FXUS61 KBTV 121121
AFDBTV
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
621 AM EST Wed Nov 12 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
Cool weather conditions and some showers will prevail. Temperatures
will be a little warmer this afternoon, reaching about the
freezing mark up to about 40. So some showers may mix with rain,
today. Conditions will be slower to cool tonight as light south
winds remain. Another trough will track east Thursday morning
shifting winds back to the northwest and holding temperatures
near the freezing mark to about 40 during the day. Showers will
gradually taper towards the summits with a relatively quiet
Saturday. The potential for rain, with some freezing rain in the
Adirondacks and areas east of the Greens remains possible
Sunday before we return to elevation dependent rain or snow
showers.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 456 AM EST Wednesday...Updated PoPs to speed up the timing
based on radar observations already showing light returns edging
into parts of Vermont. Also adjusted temperatures. Have a great
day!
Previous discussion...
Although the 500mb heights may not show much of a trough,
satellite imagery shows a well defined curl approaching Lake
Huron. Both the upper vort, and its attendant surface low will
gradually decay as the day progresses. However, we will still
observe increasing snow showers. First, chances increase as west
flow transitions to south-southwest and causes lake effect
showers to slide north. Then, broader shower coverage will occur
as the surface low tracks right along the international border
this evening and overnight. Low-level convergence and a small
patch of FGEN will produce a little snow on the front end, and
then cold advection in west-northwest flow along a stronger vort
tracking east will allow for some upslope. Temperatures will
slowly warm during the day with temperatures rising close to 40
in the lower valleys. So some showers will favor rain this
afternoon and evening. The shift to west-northwest flow doesn`t
occur until Thursday morning, and so we will have less icy
travel conditions compared to what was observed yesterday
evening. Temperatures on Thursday will again top out around the
freezing mark in the Adirondacks and Northeast Kingdom to about
40 in the lower valleys. Between the two days, we`re still on
track for another coating to 1" of snow in the lower valleys,
1-2" along foothills, 2-5" for favored northwest slopes, and
4-7" across northern summits above 3000".
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 114 AM EST Wednesday...Cooler nighttime temperatures return for
Thursday night as persistent troughiness starts to move out.
Temperatures will mainly range in the 20s to near freezing by Lake
Champlain. Cold advection will result in a cool day in the 30s.
Moisture will gradually thin over the region on Friday. Snow will
taper to the summits with lesser accumulations as we have a brief
quiet period.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 114 AM EST Wednesday...Friday night and Saturday during the
daytime will likely feature a brief reprieve from active weather as
surface high pressure builds in from the mid-Atlantic and upper
level ridging crests overhead. A few lingering mountain snow showers
are possible early Friday night, and Saturday afternoon and evening
we`ll see the potential for a wintry mix of precipitation increasing
across the St. Lawrence Valley, otherwise dry and cold weather is
forecast with lows Friday night in the mid teens to upper 20s and
highs Saturday in the 30s and lower 40s. The high for Saturday may
be deceiving, however, as most of the day should be rather cold with
the high likely arriving later in the evening or overnight
associated with warm air advection ahead of our next system.
Our next storm system features multi level low pressure diving
southeast across Ontario, Quebec, and likely just north of New York
and Vermont into Maine this weekend. Guidance continues to support
the idea of some wintry mix and some freezing rain potential as the
warm front lifts across the region, especially across eastern
Vermont where colder air is more apt to remain at the surface.
Highest chance of freezing rain occurs Saturday evening into the
early morning hours of Sunday.
By the daytime hours Sunday, we should be seeing rain for most of
the area changing to snow at the higher elevations in the afternoon
as cold air sweeps in behind the low, straightening out atmospheric
soundings in the process. Sunday`s highs will briefly touch the 40s
before falling quickly. Sunday is currently the day with highest
confidence of precipitation. Sunday night, we anticipate back end
upslope precipitation will continue, likely in the form of snow
through Monday and even potentially Tuesday as we sit under cyclonic
flow and get swiped by various shortwaves for the first half of next
week. Highs for this period are expected to be quite cool for this
time of year in the 30s and lower 40s with lows in the upper teens
to lower 30s.
&&
.AVIATION /11Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Through 12Z Thursday...Upper trough and surface low pressure
will approach the area along the Ottawa River today, producing
snow and rain showers and ceilings hovering around 1500-3500
feet above ground level throughout the next 24 hours. So far
we`re seeing visibilities anywhere from 2 to 8 miles in snow
showers, and some of the heavier showers are even accompanied
by ceilings as low as 500-1000 feet AGL. Snow should turn over
to rain in the Champlain Valley around 22Z-23Z Wednesday, but
sites elsewhere will continue to maintain at least some
snowflakes with or without rain.
Even in the Champlain Valley, pure rain will be brief, and snow
will start mixing back in around 00Z-04Z Thursday. Winds will
be out of the south to southwest today, gusting 15-20 knots at
SLK, MPV, and MSS around 16Z Wednesday - 01Z Thursday. There is
the potential for ceilings to go as low as 500-900 feet AGL at
SLK, EFK, RUT, and MSS, though it is not out of the question at
any site. This is most likely to occur after 20Z Wednesday when
the low pressure is expected to slide along the international
border and get closest to the forecast area. This IFR cig is not
anticipated to linger for too long as the low moves out shortly
after and we remain in southwesterly flow, but more details
will be clear in coming TAF issuances.
Outlook...
Thursday: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Definite SHSN,
Definite SHRA.
Thursday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance
SHSN.
Friday: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. Chance SHSN, Slight
chance SHRA.
Friday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Slight chance
SHSN.
Saturday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight chance
FZRA.
Saturday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance
FZRA, Likely RA, Chance SN.
Sunday: Mainly MVFR, with areas IFR possible. Definite RA.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Haynes
NEAR TERM...Haynes
SHORT TERM...Haynes
LONG TERM...Storm
AVIATION...Storm
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