FXUS61 KBTV 241720
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
120 PM EDT Mon Apr 24 2017
A dry cold front continues to push across the North Country
this morning, bringing a northerly wind shift and slightly
cooler temperatures. Skies will trend mostly sunny by late
morning or early afternoon. After a quiet night, low pressure
moving northward from the Carolinas will bring numerous showers
across our region on Tuesday, and across eastern and south-
central Vermont on Wednesday. Very warm temperatures are
expected on Thursday with high pressure in place aloft. A
surface cold front will bring the potential for more showers,
and potentially a thunderstorm, on Friday.
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 115 PM EDT Monday...North winds, especially in the
Champlain Valley keeping things cooler than earlier forecast
thus made adjustments cooler.
Previous discussion...Relatively quiet weather today. A cold
front washing out near the intl border has brought a light nly
wind shift across far nrn NY and far nrn VT early this morning.
Will see a band of mainly mid-level clouds associated with this
boundary early this morning, but weak frontal convergence and
dry low-level air mass should preclude any frontal precipitation.
Will see increasing sun late morning/afternoon, but north winds
and low-level CAA will keep temperatures cooler than Sunday.
Looking for afternoon highs in the mid-upr 50s across nrn
sections, and low-mid 60s across the valleys of s-central VT as
cold front dissipates while tracking south. Continued quiet
tonight. Skies start mostly clear, but will see increasing cloud
cover from south- north associated with slow-moving closed low
over the Carolinas. This system will eventually spread light
showers nwd across our region during the daylight hrs Tuesday.
Marine modified low- level air will advect into ern VT, so will
see chilly temps on Tuesday with a low overcast; highs generally
upr 40s to lower 50s east of the Green Mtns. Looking for mainly
mid-upr 50s elsewhere...perhaps near 60F for highs Tuesday in
the St. Lawrence Valley. Total rainfall amts on Tuesday
generally expected 0.10-0.20", highest across s-central/ern VT.
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 359 AM EDT Monday...Moisture from a low pressure area at
the surface and aloft along the mid Atlantic coast Tuesday night
will continue to spread northward into the region Tuesday night
and Wednesday. Thus, will keep in a chance of rain showers for
Tuesday night and Wednesday.
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 359 AM EDT Monday...Expecting some cloud cover to linger
across the region Wednesday night. A weak upper ridge will be
over the region on Thursday, so have gone with partly sunny
skies. Will bring in a chance of showers late Thursday night.
These showers will continue into Friday. Expecting a mainly dry
day on Saturday as a ridge of high pressure builds south from
Canada. Models showing a frontal system south of the region
Saturday night with ECMWF and GFS showing some overrunning rain
showers moving into the region north of the warm front for
Saturday night and Sunday.
.AVIATION /17Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Through 18Z Tuesday...Mainly SKC through 04z then gradual
increase in clouds from south to north with slowly approaching
closed low. Scattered showers and cigs AOB 060 enter 10-12z
along MA-VT border and northern border around 16z. Primarily VFR
through period with some MVFR aft 15z at KRUT and possibly KSLK.
Primarily NNE winds aob 10 kts today...largely light overnight
with KRUT witnessing SE 5-7 kts aft 03z then by 10-12z SE winds
around 10 kts for all.
Tuesday Night: VFR. Breezy. Chance SHRA.
Wednesday: VFR. Chance SHRA.
Wednesday Night: VFR/MVFR. Slight Chance SHRA.
Thursday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Thursday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA.
Friday: VFR. Chance SHRA.
Friday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA.
Saturday: VFR. Slight Chance SHRA.