32.1
Current conditions from King Hill
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  Monday October 22, 2018

 

NWS Area Forecast Discussion


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000
FXUS61 KBTV 220540
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
140 AM EDT Mon Oct 22 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
Northwest flow aloft will remain in place over the region
tonight and bring unseasonably cold air to the North Country.
Lows will be in the 20s to lower 30s. Unsettled weather is
expected for the upcoming work week with lake effect showers
moving into the area on Monday followed by a trough of low
pressure Tuesday into Wednesday that will bring more widespread
showers to the region. Below normal temperatures will continue
through much of the upcoming week as well.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON/...
As of 122 AM EDT Monday...No significant changes for 130 am
update.

Previous discussion...Northwest flow aloft has contributed to
plenty of cloud cover, snow showers, and temperatures well below
normal. In fact most locations only saw high temperatures
generally in the 30s. The upslope snow showers will ending by
early evening and we will thin out a bit of the cloud cover
allow for the temperatures to fall into the 20s to lower 30s.
Looking at 28-32 degree temperatures for the entire Champlain
Valley of New York and Vermont and thus have issued a Freeze
Warning for this area from 2:00 am to 8:00 am as the growing
season does not end until October 25th. Winds will stay gusty
this evening and will taper off a bit after midnight. High
pressure is centered to our south and with a shortwave trough
moving across Canada tonight bringing some mid level clouds to
the area its not your typical clear skies and light wind event
to lower temperatures below freezing. The air mass advecting in
is cold enough for temperatures to fall below freezing most
areas.

The flow in the low and mid levels will turn to the southwest
on Monday and with colder 850 mb air moving over the warmer
waters of Lake Ontario we should see some lake effect showers
develop and move into northern New York during the afternoon
hours on Monday and then across northern New York and northern
Vermont Monday night as southwest flow aloft continues. The
southwest flow will bring a return of warmer air to the
area...but will still be a little below normal with highs in the
40s on Monday and lows in the 30s Monday night.

&&

.SHORT TERM /2 PM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 358 PM EDT Sunday...A fairly strong upper level trough
will be pushing through the North Country on Tuesday which
should lead to widespread rain and mountain snow showers across
the region. Its a tricky forecast as most of the region will see
a warm nose push in during the afternoon and its not until late
Tuesday evening that the column becomes cold enough to support
snow everywhere. By this time the RH will have lifted north and
so even with the favoured northwest wind it will be a challenge
to see much snowfall across the region. Snow levels will be
around 2500 feet so in elevations above 2500-3000 feet we`ll
probably see snow most of the time but the bulk of the RH aloft
is still below the favoured snow growth zone. So we`ll likely
see snow but most likely on the order of 1-3 inches in the
higher terrain. Down in the valleys we may see some flurries but
I dont expect any accumulation.

Wednesday the cold air continues to be pumped into the North
Country from the northwest but will little in the way of support
or RH I think we`ll be looking at a quiet day with persistent
stratocu and temps in the 40s. Wednesday evening the ridge will
start to build into the region and temps will once again drop
into the upper 20s to low 30s depending on cloud cover.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 358 PM EDT Sunday...The extended is largely characterized
as seasonably cold with daily scattered mountain snow showers
possible under northwest flow. At the surface we`ll have high
pressure building with an upper level trough displaced to the
east. This will create seasonably chilly conditions with a
chance on Wednesday of not warming out of the 30s across the
North Country. More Fall-like temps will be on the way however
as the upper level trough weakens and an upper level ridge
builds in heading into the weekend. The weekend is our best
chance to see normal temps as the ensemble means for the last
couple of runs are pointing to continued cold air over New
England with the next warm up possible not until November.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Through 06Z Tuesday...So far the expected clearing is just not
happening overnight. Expect mid level clouds to remain
overnight. Eventually flow becomes more SW and clouds will
continue to increase,thicken and lower back to 4000-6000 feet
on Monday with a slight chance of a shower late. Visibilities
remaining VFR.

Winds have tapered off to the 5 to 10 knot range and will
continue to back today, eventually the winds will become more
southwest and south after 14z but at speeds generally under 10
knots.

Outlook...

Tuesday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance SHRA.
Tuesday Night: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Chance SHRA.
Wednesday: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Chance SHRA,
Chance SHSN.
Wednesday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance
SHSN.
Thursday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Slight chance
SHSN.
Thursday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHSN.
Friday: VFR. Slight chance SHSN.

&&

.MARINE...
Northwest winds of 15 to 30 knots have decreased below Lake
Wind advisory criteria and this trend will continue, thus the
Advisory has been canceled.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...Freeze Warning until 8 AM EDT this morning for VTZ001-002-005-
     009.
NY...Freeze Warning until 8 AM EDT this morning for NYZ028-035.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Evenson
NEAR TERM...Evenson/Neiles/SLW
SHORT TERM...Deal
LONG TERM...Deal
AVIATION...Neiles
MARINE...Evenson/SLW



 
 
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