132
FXUS61 KBTV 081834
AFDBTV
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
134 PM EST Thu Jan 8 2026
.SYNOPSIS...
Gradually warming weather is expected over the next few days. Light
rain will unfold Friday and Friday evening as temperatures reach
their peak. Gusty southwest winds are also expected, followed by
briefly colder conditions on Saturday. After mostly quiet conditions
much of the day, snow and a wintry mix will lift back northwards
late Saturday evening into early Sunday morning. A breezy day on
Sunday will precede a cold front with showers during the
afternoon. Then, more seasonable to somewhat above normal
temperatures will return with snow showers opening the new work
week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
As of 132 PM EST Thursday...For the rest of today, ever so slowly
decreasing cloud cover will give way to some breaks with
temperatures generally above freezing. Guidance insists on enough
clearing to radiate out, but HREF cloud cover progs keeps me
skeptical. Continued the theme of using raw, hourly data against the
typical diurnal curve. Sheltered hollows of the Adirondacks and the
Upper Valley that clear out still have the potential to fall into
the teens to lower 20s, but most will remain near freezing under
clouds before south winds initiate the more noticeable warm up.
Increasingly dry low-level conditions embedded in the upper ridge
axis will settle in as surface high pressure slides off the Mid-
Atlantic.
Friday will be warm and windy. Guidance has trended upwards with
regards to the strength of the LLJ, with values bumping up towards
65-70 knots. The core of highest winds remains in the inversion, but
there still looks to be about southwest winds of 45-50 knots at
925mb beneath an inversion around 2000 ft. It`s not necessarily
ideal for strong mixing, but HREF and REFS guidance probabilities of
gusts greater than 50 knots are highlight the common trouble spots
for southwest winds - the Route 11 corridor and the immediate shores
of Lake Champlain. So a Wind Advisory has been issues 10 AM Fri to 1
AM Saturday with gusts early in the afternoon likely in the 35-45
mph range within the Advisory area.
Rain will quickly shift east with a sharp, narrow plume of moisture,
and is still expected to make a hasty departure after dropping 0.10-
0.25" of rain. Snow will efficiently get eaten up by the winds and
the warm temperatures, but rainfall amounts of this quantity are not
likely enough to cause significant issues. Cold air quickly rushes
in, and unfortunately, it appears that it does so while fast mid-
level flow remains in place. Post-frontal height rises and
increasingly mixed low-level conditions will produce a second bout
of strong gusts. This should result in one last push of very gusty
winds immediately following the front, with values likely reaching
50 mph, perhaps approaching 55 mph from Malone through Ellenburg, NY
depending on the strength of the boundary. This post frontal air
mass will bring cool air rushing in, but by Saturday morning, it
will still probably range from the mid 20s to mid 30s.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
As of 132 PM EST Thursday...Much of Saturday is expected to be dry.
Northwest flow will quickly break down, and so however cold we get
Saturday morning will be how cold we`ll likely be for whatever comes
next. Temperatures will rise a few degrees into the mid to upper 30s
with very dry air in the region owing to a broad, stretched out
1028-1030mb surface high building across eastern Canada.
Precipitation will lift north Saturday evening after facing some
initial resistance from dry air, but it will help provide some wet-
bulb cooling. P-Type should be snow at onset. A double barrel low
situation will evolve with low pressure developing off Mid-Atlantic
tracking towards the New England Coastline. So warm advection will
decrease some, but eventually by Saturday night, it will be far
enough that some of the warmer mid-level conditions associated with
the parent low will entrain. We`ll see how much, but a mix will
likely develop over portions of the region heading into Sunday
morning.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 132 PM EST Thursday...Key Points: * Key Point: Frozen
precipitation areawide, likely in the form of snow, anticipated
Sunday, with accumulating snow possible.
A classic double barrel system will continue into the day Sunday
with an occluding parent low and a developing coastal low off
southern New England. It continues to look more likely that the
coastal low will become the dominant feature of the two overall,
which will continue the trend of a more colder solution for Sunday
in terms of precipitation types. Precipitation is likely to fall as
snow Sunday with a split snow consistency across Vermont and New
York. New York will largely continue to be influenced by the parent
low with more of a dry fluffier snow and higher snow ratios towards
10-15:1. However in Vermont and the CPV, southeasterly flow from the
dominating coastal low will lead to lower snow ratios (8-10:1) and a
wetter snow in the morning before winds become west/northwest with
colder and drier air helping to increase snow ratios by Sunday
evening. Although temperatures will reach highs in the mid 30s
Sunday, wet-bulbing should be able to allow for most of the region
to see mainly snow. However, locations near Lake Champlain, such as
Grand Isle, St. Albans. and downtown Burlington, could see a mix of
rain and snow at times, mainly near midday Sunday. As the coastal
low departs east, the parent upper low will shift east as well
leading to prevailing westerly flow areawide. Winds increase in the
downslope regions of the eastern Adirondacks and eastern Greens as
the parent low upper level jet traverses the region. Gusty winds up
to 20 to 30 mph will be possible. With the parent low passage, an
associated vort max continues to look promising in terms of
available lift with the potential for isolated snow squalls Sunday
night. The NAM12 solution depicts up to 100J/kg of CAPE Sunday
afternoon into the evening across northern New York and central and
northern Vermont before weakening into the Northeast Kingdom. There
should be some moisture around with mild enough temperatures to
support showers and embedded squalls Sunday evening with the
potential for additional travel impacts.
Subtle northwesterly flow late Sunday night into Monday morning
across the northern Greens could lead to some localized upslope
showers with enhancement from some weak orographic lift. Into parts
of New York, however, southwesterly flow will be favorable for a
lake effect band to form off Lake Ontario, leading to localized
light to moderate snow in south/southeastern St. Lawrence County
Sunday into Sunday night. However, the bulk of the moisture will be
dragged along with the upper low, so expect only a few inches across
the upslope higher terrain and in regions under the lake effect snow
band. The pattern beyond the weekend looks to be a bit unsettled,
but on the mild side with a series of weak ridges and troughs.
Temperatures will be mild with highs into the low to mid 30s for
much of early next week. The bulk of the weekend precipitation
should taper off Monday, but linger in the St. Lawrence Valley.
Locations that could see the best chances for precipitation in the
extended will be across the St. Lawrence Valley and northern Greens
as a long wave trough will eject several shortwaves along the St.
Lawrence Valley and International Border. Shadowing and a dry slot
across the CPV and Vermont could limit the overall spatial extent of
these shower chances, but expect broken to overcast skies to
continue through next week. It is January in northern New York and
Vermont after all, but the sun will return someday.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Through 18Z Friday...Main terminal impacts through this afternoon
will be continued MVFR ceilings with intermittent BR leading to some
visibility reductions. High pressure is attempting to scour out some
clouds from the south with clearing evident on satellite in the
eastern Adirondacks and western Champlain Valley. However,
persistent low level moisture across much of Vermont and the rest of
New York is keeping some low clouds in place, generally 2000-3000ft
agl, outside of the mountain sites at SLK/EFK where ceilings are
1500-2000ft agl. Looking upstream on the other side of the clearing
are some additional MVFR cigs, however, the expectation is that by
22Z, this clearing should arrive at most terminals. SLK/EFK/MSS
could hold on to some low level moisture through the overnight, but
should also see improvements to VFR by 12Z. One other wrinkle to
this forecast is with increasing temperatures and dewpoints rising
above freezing, snowmelt is continuing to lead to intermittent 3-5SM
BR. Unlike yesterday, light flow should reduce the chance of any
LIFR and fog, but there is a non-zero chance of IFR visibilities if
snowmelt becomes more vigorous, especially once winds increase
overnight. Model soundings suggest that at PBG tonight between 03Z
and 09Z, a low lake cloud off of Lake Champlain, coupled with light
south/southeast flow, could drift into PBG leading to localized
IFR/LIFR conditions. Have only mentioned a sct003 for now due to
some uncertainty, but persistence with this pattern setup suggests
an increased confidence.
While winds are generally light and variable right now, they will
become prevailing southerly overnight with increasing magnitude
towards sunrise and beyond. Winds will increase towards 10-15kts,
especially in the wider valleys, with gusts up to 20-30 kts by 12-
15Z, and increase further towards 30-40kts at BTV and the New York
terminals by the end of this TAF period. These winds are associated
with a moderately strong 850mb jet which could lead to widespread
turbulence, as well as widespread LLWS areawide.
Outlook...
Friday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance RA,
Slight chance SHRA.
Saturday: VFR. Chance RA, Chance SN, Slight chance PL.
Saturday Night: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Definite
FZRA, Definite RA, Chance SN.
Sunday: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Chance SN, Chance
RA, Chance FZRA.
Sunday Night: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. Chance SN.
Monday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. NO SIG WX.
Monday Night: MVFR. Chance SN.
Tuesday: MVFR. Slight chance SN.
&&
.EQUIPMENT...
NOAA Weather Radio station WXM-44, transmitting from Mt.
Ascutney, Vermont, on frequency 162.475 MHz is non-operational
at this time. NWS technicians have diagnosed the problem, but
repairs will likely not be able to occur for quite some time due
to circumstances beyond our control. Therefore, the time of
return to service is currently unknown. The following NOAA
Weather Radio transmitters may be able to provide service during
this outage: WWG 50 from Burke Mtn, VT at 162.425 MHz and WNG
546 from Hanover, NH at 162.525 MHz.
The Colchester Reef meteorological station is out of service.
This site is not serviced by the NWS and there isn`t an
estimated return to service at present. Use extra caution when
navigating the broad waters of Lake Champlain. Please contact us
if you observe winds significantly deviating from the
recreational forecast.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...Wind Advisory from 10 AM Friday to 1 AM EST Saturday for
NYZ027-030-031.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Haynes
NEAR TERM...Haynes
SHORT TERM...Haynes
LONG TERM...Danzig
AVIATION...Danzig
EQUIPMENT...Team BTV
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