076
FXUS61 KBTV 020731
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
231 AM EST Tue Dec 2 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Our first east coast winter storm of the season will bring
widespread snow to Vermont and northern New York today, with
moderate to heavy snow at times mainly in central and southern
Vermont. An Arctic cold front will bring snow showers and snow
squalls to the region as it sweeps eastward during the day on
Thursday. The coldest weather of the early winter will follow
Thursday night into Friday, with persistent below normal
temperatures and snow shower chances continuing through the
weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 157 AM EST Tuesday...

* Winter Storm Warnings are now in effect from 7 AM today to 1
  AM Wednesday in portions of southern Vermont

* Winter Weather Advisories are in effect from 7 AM today to 1
  AM Wednesday in much of northern Vermont and Essex County, New
  York

No major shifts have occurred in the forecast outside of some
marginally increased snowfall totals for portions of northern
Vermont that resulted from a slight northerly shift in the
consensus for the storm`s track. Models remain consolidated on
a fast moving system bringing widespread snowfall to portions of
the Northeast. CAMS are starting to highlight snow band
potential across southern Vermont supporting the potential for
total accumulations greater than 7 inches with isolated up to
10 inches for a few "lucky" spots. IVT (integrated water vapor
transport) continues to highlight much of Vermont for a strong
flux of moisture from the surface to 700mb with a deep saturated
layer in the snow growth zone. Coupled with SLRs > 12-15:1 and
this points to efficient snow formation processes that will help
build surface snowfall amounts despite QPF ranging 0.1-0.5".
One foil for locations near forecast advisory/warning criteria
thresholds could be wind speeds potentially shattering dendrites
resulting in a less fluffy snow character initially. As such, a
marginal increase in amounts mainly east of the Greens has
occurred where totals could range towards the higher end of the
3 to 7 inch range.

Onset of snow remains around daybreak today with the heaviest
period being favored between 10 AM and 3 PM. General snowfall
rates will be 0.5" per hour, but there could be periods of 1
in/hour in banded snow environments. While southern Vermont is
favored for bands across most CAMs, some are pointing to a
southwest-to-northeast band potentially developing along a
Rutland to St Johnsbury line. Should this occur, snow totals may
creep towards warning amounts in northeastern Vermont. However,
kept the forecast more towards model means rather than outliers
with 3 to 5 probable for for Essex County, NY, the northern
Champlain Valley, and along the Canadian border of Vermont, 4
to 7 inches from Addison County northeastward through the NEK,
and 5 to 9 inches for Rutland/Windsor/Orange counties.

Snow will rapidly shut off as low pressure tracks quickly
northeastward late tonight. Southwest flow will develop with
clouds increasing across St Lawrence County. Some lake enhanced
snowfall is probable off of Lake Ontario, but shear will hold
off appreciable amounts until Wednesday night.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
As of 135 AM EST Tuesday...An arctic cold front looks to push across
the region Thursday morning, bringing a line of snow showers and
breezy winds. Snow squalls continue to look likely with this feature
looking at the strong frontogenesis and overall dynamics of the
system. Hazardous travel conditions will be possible Thursday
morning with these potential squalls, as any snow squalls will be
capable of severely reduced visibilities and a quick burst of
snowfall, which may impact the Thursday morning commute, especially
for northern New York and the northern Champlain Valley as the
frontal passage looks to be between 7AM and 10AM, continuing to push
across the region through the late morning and afternoon.
Temperatures will begin to drop sharply behind the front, with
unseasonably cold air ushering into the region. Daytime highs on
Thursday will be early in the day, with temperatures in the 20s to
low 30s which will drop through the afternoon into the teens and
20s. overnight lows Thursday night look to drop into single digits
above and below zero areawide, with wind chill values dipping below
zero with some higher elevations approaching -25F.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 135 AM EST Tuesday...The cold and active weather pattern looks
to continue as we head into the weekend, with a large upper level
trough ans several short wave disturbances bringing chances for
precipitation, especially across the higher terrain and more
northern locations. Temperatures on Friday will be unseasonably
cold, with high temperatures only climbing into the teens to mid
20s. Temperatures will warm slightly for Saturday, but another cold
front will usher in another period of colder temperatures for the
beginning of next week with highs once again in the teens to lower
20s.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Through 06Z Wednesday...Primarily VFR conditions prevail across the
forecast area, with some pockets of MVFR ceilings. As the night
progresses, ceilings will continue to lower, with snowfall arriving
Tuesday morning, generally between 10Z and 14Z, spreading from west
to east. Snowfall will generally bring IFR conditions will
visibilities between 1-2SM, with some intervals of moderate snowfall
bringing visibilities to 1/2SM or less, especially across more
southern terminals like KRUT. Ceilings will continue to drop
throughout the morning, with widespread low MVFR and some IFR
ceilings expected. Winds will generally be light and out of the
south/southwest throughout the forecast period.

Outlook...

Wednesday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance
SHSN.
Thursday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Windy with gusts
to 30 kt. Chance SHSN.
Thursday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Friday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Friday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHSN.
Saturday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHSN.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
NOAA Weather Radio station WXM-44, transmitting from Mt.
Ascutney, Vermont, on frequency 162.475 MHz is non-operational
at this time. NWS technicians have diagnosed the problem, but
repairs will likely not be able to occur for quite some time due
to circumstances beyond our control. Therefore, the time of
return to service is currently unknown. The following NOAA
Weather Radio transmitters may be able to provide service during
this outage: WWG 50 from Burke Mtn, VT at 162.425 MHz and WNG
546 from Hanover, NH at 162.525 MHz.

Equipment malfunctions at the Colchester Reef meteorological
station will likely leave it inoperable for an extended period
of time. This site is not serviced by the NWS. Technicians do
not currently have an estimated return to service for this
station. Use extra caution when navigating the broad waters of
Lake Champlain, and please contact us if you observe winds
significantly deviating from the forecast.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...Winter Weather Advisory from 7 AM this morning to 1 AM EST
     Wednesday for VTZ003>009-017.
     Winter Storm Warning from 7 AM this morning to 1 AM EST
     Wednesday for VTZ010-011-018>021.
NY...Winter Weather Advisory from 7 AM this morning to 1 AM EST
     Wednesday for NYZ034-035.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Boyd
NEAR TERM...Boyd
SHORT TERM...Kremer
LONG TERM...Kremer
AVIATION...Kremer
EQUIPMENT...Team BTV