FXUS61 KBTV 010755
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
355 AM EDT Thu Oct 1 2020
Unsettled weather will continue through the end of the work
week. Today, chances for showers with exist mainly across
northern New York and become area-wide on Friday. Cooler and
drier weather returns for the weekend. By the middle of next
week, chances for widespread rain return.
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 353 AM EDT Thursday...Lake effect rain showers will continue to
affect portions of St Lawrence and Franklin counties in NY through
the morning hours before diminishing this afternoon. 0.10-0.50" of
additional rainfall is expected with these showers, highest amounts
closer to Lake Ontario and lesser towards the northern international
border. Cloudy conditions will persist across most of the North
Country today as upper level trough remains firmly overhead. Despite
clouds and south/southwest winds around 10-15 mph, it should be a
fairly nice day with highs near normal in the 60s. A brief break in
precipitation is expected tonight with minimal chances areawide.
Another vort max will pass through the flow aloft on Friday which
will provide the focus for widespread showers during the day. Have
trended very similar to previous forecast with the anticipation of a
relatively light widespread rainfall event. Overall QPF from this
system will be considerably lower than yesterday`s with between 0.10-
0.30", highest across eastern VT, as PWATs remain under 1.0". This
system will move out fairly quickly Friday night. Temperatures will
trend below normal tonight into Friday with lows in the upper 30s to
mid 40s (near 50 along Lake Champlain shoreline) and highs in the
low 50s/around 60.
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
As of 253 AM EDT Thursday...Shortwave trough exits quickly
northeast Friday night with any evening showers largely ending
before midnight. Southwesterly flow and gradually cooling
temperatures aloft may foster some instability showers off Lake
Ontario into in the Dacks by Saturday afternoon, but this
activity should be scattered to widely scattered at best with
many areas seeing mainly dry weather. Temperatures cool slightly
from Friday`s readings, with overnight lows from the upper 30s
to mid 40s and corresponding Saturday highs in the 50s to around
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 253 AM EDT Thursday...Overall, little change in forecast
philosophy heading into next week. Temperatures will remain very
near seasonal early autumn levels as core of longwave trough
remains atop the region on Sunday before lifting out during
Monday. A final impulse associated with this feature will bring
lower end chances of showers on Monday, but guidance is rather
unclear on the degree of organization of this feature with
consensus suggesting primary energy focuses largely south of our
region. The best chance of more widespread showers appears to
occur by the middle of next week when a cold front and another
longwave trough push into the Northeast.
.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Through 06Z Friday...Mainly VFR across the airspace over the
next 24 hours, however periods with localized MVFR may be
possible KMSS/KSLK through 09z associated with lake effect
showers. Winds will be around 10kt or less overnight out of the
S/SW, except for KSLK where gusts up to 20 kt are possible. In
addition, LLWS will be likely at all TAF sites overnight except
KBTV and KPBG as a SW 35-40kt low level jet quickly traverses
the region. Tomorrow, scattered showers are possible at KMSS &
KSLK during the afternoon hours. Winds will be out of the S/SW
around 10kt becoming light and variable towards 00z.
Friday: VFR. Likely SHRA.
Friday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Slight chance
Saturday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Slight chance
Saturday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Sunday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Sunday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight chance
Monday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight chance SHRA.