077
FXUS61 KBTV 311133
AFDBTV
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
633 AM EST Wed Dec 31 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
Widespread snow arrives this evening and tonight, with most areas
seeing 1 to 2 inches of snow by daybreak tomorrow and 2 to 6 inches
expected in St. Lawrence and Franklin counties of New York.
Seasonably cold weather continues into the New Year along with
occasional chances for mountain and lake effect snow showers.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 137 AM EST Wednesday...
**A Winter Weather Advisory has been issued for St. Lawrence and
Franklin counties of New York 4 PM this afternoon through 7 AM
tomorrow morning.
**Lake enhanced snow will transition to lighter, fluffier snow
this evening through tomorrow morning, accumulating around 2 to
6 inches in these two counties.
**Plan on slippery road conditions and periods of poor
visibility during the Wednesday evening and Thursday morning
commutes, as well as a period between 8 PM and 1 AM when snow
may be particularly heavy.
Upslope snow showers are expected to taper off this morning with dry
conditions into the afternoon. Temperatures should rise into the
upper teens and 20s today, still 5-10 degrees below seasonal normals
but much milder than yesterday. Morning wind gusts 15-20 knots out
of the southwest will decrease in the afternoon. Then, southwesterly
flow will transport Lake Ontario moisture into the region, causing
some light to moderate snowfall to develop across northern New York
in the afternoon and evening. Surface low pressure will slide across
or just southeast of the St. Lawrence Valley tonight as a large
upper low moves across Ontario and Quebec to the north and
northwest. We`re expecting a band of moderate to perhaps briefly
heavy snow developing downwind of Lake Ontario and between the two
lows, likely in the St. Lawrence Valley, Adirondacks, and northern
Greens.
Unfortunately for those ringing in the new year across northern New
York, the heaviest snow is anticipated right around 8 PM through 1
AM, so please use caution if traveling anywhere for the
celebrations. The surface low is expected to drag a cold front
through the forecast area tonight as well, transitioning the
snowfall from a lower ratio lake enhanced snow to a lighter,
fluffier, high ratio snow that will blow around more easily tomorrow
morning. Temperatures will be in the teens and lower 20s around
midnight on New Year`s Day, falling into the bitter -5 to 15 F range
as the front draws in colder air.
Winds will be on the increase again tonight out of the northwest,
peaking tomorrow morning as snow comes to an end with gusts 10-25
knots, higher on mountaintops and on Lake Champlain. This is likely
to blow around snow, allowing treacherous travel conditions to
continue after snow ends. Temperatures tomorrow will only reach the
single digits to mid 20s despite decreasing clouds, running 10-20
degrees below averages. Plus, the gusty winds will make it feel even
colder with wind chills in the negatives.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 137 AM EST Wednesday...Tomorrow night will be especially frigid
with clear patches in the sky at times, though winds are expected to
decrease. Lows are forecast to fall into the single digits above and
below negative. Then, Friday will be yet another cold day with highs
in the teens and lower 20s and increasing clouds as flow turns once
more out of the southwest, increasing chances of some more lake
enhanced snow showers in northern New York, about 30-60% chance of
measurable precipitation in southern St. Lawrence and Franklin
counties. Moisture has about a 10-30% chance of making its way out
to the Champlain Valley and northern Greens to produce the odd snow
shower.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 139 AM EST Wednesday...Broad cyclonic flow will be quite
persistent for the extended forecast, generally keeping temperatures
below seasonal averages with weaker variety troughs anticipated to
move through in rapid succession. This overall pattern does not
favor heavy snowfall, but will lead to periods of showers especially
over higher terrain. Temperatures will be running below seasonal
averages with the base of the longwave trough favored over the
eastern seaboard. Highs are only expected in the teens with lows in
the single digits around zero continuing our recent cold stretch. A
decent number of models show the pattern begin to shift early next
week, allowing for what would likely be a clipper-style system to
move through the region. Timing and details are suspect this far
out, but will watch this system`s evolution for potential to move
the snow line northward which could result in mixed frozen/freezing
precipitation characteristics.
&&
.AVIATION /11Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Through 12Z Thursday...Widespread snow arrives this evening and
tonight, potentially heaviest across the St. Lawrence Valley,
impacting site MSS. For the next 12 hours though, conditions
will be quiet VFR with mostly variable winds. SLK has already
reported some southwesterly gusts 10-20 knots this morning,
though we should see those recede again around 21Z today. MPV is
another site we could see with a few southwesterly gusts 15-20
knots this afternoon, then decreasing around the same time as
SLK. Elsewhere, winds are set to remain below 10 knots until
around 03Z-09Z Thursday when a low pressure system crosses
northern New York and Vermont, increasing winds to gusts 15-25
knots out of the southwest at first, then shifting more west-
northwesterly around 09Z-10Z Thursday onwards.
As this low pressure approaches the forecast area today, we`ll
see increasing clouds and lowering ceilings this evening to
around 1800-3000 feet at 02Z-03Z Thursday, though RUT in
particular could see fluctuating ceilings closer to 3000-4500
feet as early as 18Z today and onwards onwards. In addition to
MVFR ceilings, this low pressure is also expected to bring snow
and low level wind shear tonight, arriving anytime from 22Z
today in northern New York to 03Z-09Z Thursday in Vermont.
Anytime snow is in the forecast, IFR vis is a risk, however, the
most likely locations of visibilities less than 3 miles are SLK,
EFK, and MSS between 22Z today and 10Z Thursday, where snow
bands may develop. Low level wind shear is most likely at BTV
and SLK as the low pressure moves just to their north and west
02Z through 10Z Thursday.
Outlook...
New Years Day: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SN.
Thursday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Friday: VFR. Slight chance SHSN.
Friday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHSN.
Saturday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Saturday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight
chance SHSN.
Sunday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. NO SIG WX.
&&
.EQUIPMENT...
NOAA Weather Radio station WXM-44, transmitting from Mt.
Ascutney, Vermont, on frequency 162.475 MHz is non-operational
at this time. NWS technicians have diagnosed the problem, but
repairs will likely not be able to occur for quite some time due
to circumstances beyond our control. Therefore, the time of
return to service is currently unknown. The following NOAA
Weather Radio transmitters may be able to provide service during
this outage: WWG 50 from Burke Mtn, VT at 162.425 MHz and WNG
546 from Hanover, NH at 162.525 MHz.
The Colchester Reef meteorological station is out of service.
This site is not serviced by the NWS and there isn`t an
estimated return to service at present. Use extra caution when
navigating the broad waters of Lake Champlain. Please contact us
if you observe winds significantly deviating from the
recreational forecast.
The Newport AWOS has stopped reporting due to a communications
failure likely at the site. TAF amendments will not be
scheduled until this issue is resolved.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...Winter Weather Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 7 AM EST
Thursday for NYZ026-027-029-030-087.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Storm
NEAR TERM...Storm
SHORT TERM...Storm
LONG TERM...Boyd
AVIATION...Storm
EQUIPMENT...Team BTV
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