000

ABNT20 KNHC 141746

TWOAT 



Tropical Weather Outlook

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL

200 PM EDT Mon Oct 14 2019



For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:



The National Hurricane Center has issued the last advisory on

Post-Tropical Cyclone Storm Melissa, located several hundred miles

south-southeast of Newfoundland, Canada.



A large low pressure system located over the far eastern tropical

Atlantic Ocean less than 300 miles southeast of the Cabo Verde

Islands is moving slowly west-northwestward to northwestward.

Satellite imagery and surface wind data indicate that low has become

better defined since yesterday, and shower and thunderstorm activity

is showing increasing signs of organization.  If this recent

development trend continues, then a tropical depression or a

tropical storm storm is likely to form later tonight or early

Tuesday while the low moves generally northwestward toward the Cabo

Verde Islands.  Strong upper-level winds should prevent any further

development by midweek.  This system is forecast to bring locally

heavy rainfall and gusty winds to portions of the Cabo Verde Islands

tonight through Wednesday morning, and interests there should

monitor the progress of this system.

* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.

* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.



Disorganized showers and thunderstorms over the southwestern

Caribbean Sea, Gulf of Honduras, and parts of Central America are

associated with a broad area of low pressure located inland over

northwestern Honduras. This system will move west-northwestward

across southern Belize, northern Guatemala, and southeastern Mexico

during the next couple of days, preventing tropical cyclone

formation during that time.  By Wednesday, however, the low is

forecast to emerge over the southern Bay of Campeche where

conditions could become a little more conducive for some further

organization to occur.  Regardless of development, this system is

expected to produce heavy rains over a large portion of Central

America during the next few days, which could cause flooding and

mudslides, especially in mountainous areas.

* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.

* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.



A tropical wave accompanied by a small low pressure system located

over the central tropical Atlantic is producing a large area of

cloudiness and thunderstorms. Although thunderstorm activity has

continued to increase and become a little better organized since

yesterday, upper-level winds are expected to be only marginally

conducive for significant development of this system over the next

day or two while it moves westward at around 15 mph.  By late

Wednesday as the wave approaches the Windward Islands, upper-level

winds are forecast to become quite hostile for any further

development.

* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.

* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.



$$

Forecaster Stewart

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Tropical Depression Tropical

• Summary for Tropical Depression Fifteen (AT5/AL152019)
  ...NEW TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS SOUTHEAST OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS... ...HEAVY RAINS EXPECTED ACROSS EASTERN CABO VERDE ISLANDS TONIGHT... As of 5:00 PM AST Mon Oct 14 the center of Fifteen was located near 13.2, -20.2 with movement NW at 8 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1006 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.

Tropical Depression Fifteen

• Tropical Depression Fifteen Public Advisory Number 1
  Issued at 500 PM AST Mon Oct 14 2019 000 WTNT35 KNHC 142039 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Fifteen Advisory Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152019 500 PM AST Mon Oct 14 2019 ...NEW TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS SOUTHEAST OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS... ...HEAVY RAINS EXPECTED ACROSS EASTERN CABO VERDE ISLANDS TONIGHT... SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...13.2N 20.2W ABOUT 320 MI...515 KM SE OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. However, interests in the Cabo Verde Islands should closely monitor the progress of the depression since a Tropical Storm Warning may be required for portions of the islands later tonight or early Tuesday. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of newly formed Tropical Depression Fifteen was located near latitude 13.2 North, longitude 20.2 West. The depression is moving toward the northwest near 8 mph (13 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue through Wednesday. On the forecast track, the center of the depression is expected to pass over or near the eastern Cabo Verde Islands on Tuesday, and pass near the central portion of those islands Tuesday night and Wednesday morning. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Slight strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and the depression is expected to become a tropical storm by early Tuesday morning. Rapid weakening is forecast to begin by Wednesday morning when the cyclone will be moving away from the Cabo Verde Islands. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: The depression is expected to produce rainfall accumulations of 1 to 3 inches across the Cabo Verde Islands, with isolated maximum amounts of 5 inches in the higher terrain, especially across the eastern portion of the islands. This rainfall may cause flash flooding and mudslides. WIND: Tropical storm conditions could occur across the eastern Capo Verde Islands by Tuesday morning, and then gradually spread westward across the central portion of the islands by Tuesday night, making outside preparations difficult or dangerous. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Stewart ]]>
• Tropical Depression Fifteen Forecast Advisory Number 1
  Issued at 2100 UTC MON OCT 14 2019 000 WTNT25 KNHC 142039 TCMAT5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152019 2100 UTC MON OCT 14 2019 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. INTERESTS IN THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THE DEPRESSION SINCE A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE ISLANDS LATER TONIGHT OR EARLY TUESDAY. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.2N 20.2W AT 14/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 7 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.2N 20.2W AT 14/2100Z AT 14/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.0N 19.9W FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 14.3N 21.1W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 15.5N 22.4W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 0SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 16.7N 23.4W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 0SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 18.1N 24.6W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 0SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 20.4N 26.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 18/1800Z 21.4N 29.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 19/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.2N 20.2W NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/0300Z $$ FORECASTER STEWART ]]>
• Tropical Depression Fifteen Forecast Discussion Number 1
  Issued at 500 PM AST Mon Oct 14 2019 000 WTNT45 KNHC 142040 TCDAT5 Tropical Depression Fifteen Discussion Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152019 500 PM AST Mon Oct 14 2019 The large low pressure system that moved off the coast of Africa yesterday has gradually become better defined based on earlier ASCAT scatterometer wind data and recent visible satellite imagery. Several fragmented curved bands have been developing during the past several hours, especially in the northern semicircle, and the aforementioned ASCAT passes indicated that winds of 30-32 kt were present northwest of the center. The initial intensity is set at 30 kt based on a blend of the scatterometer wind data and a satellite intensity estimate of T1.5/25 kt from SAB, and the rather broad nature of the depression. A surge of mid-level dry air has recently penetrated into the inner-core region, causing some erosion of the central deep convection. However, this is expected to be a temporary condition with convection returning later tonight and early Tuesday during the normal nocturnal convective maximum period. However, the large size of the cyclone -- more than 1000 nmi wide -- should prevent any rapid or significant intensification. With very low vertical shear conditions forecast by the GFS and ECMWF models to continue for the next 24 to 36 hours, at least some modest strengthening seems likely given the unusually warm SSTs of near 28.5 deg C that the cyclone will be traversing during that time. By 48 hours, the shear is forecast to increase from the southwest in excess of 25 kt, resulting in weakening into a remnant low shortly thereafter. By 72 hours and beyond, the shear is expected to increase to more than 40 kt, which will cause rapid weakening and dissipation by the 120-h period, if not sooner. The official intensity forecast is similar to a blend of the NOAA-HCCA and IVCN consensus models, and the GFS- and ECMWF-based Decay-SHIPS statistical intensity models. The initial motion estimate is northwestward or 310/07 kt. The latest NHC model guidance is in very good agreement on the tropical cyclone moving generally northwestward around the southwestern periphery of a deep-layer ridge for the next 48 hours. Thereafter, the models diverge significantly based on how soon the cyclone weakens and turns westward within the low-level easterly trade wind flow. The ECMWF holds on to a vertically deeper system a little longer than the GFS, UKMET, HWRF, and HMON models, resulting in a longer northwestward track. However, since the cyclone will likely have become a vertically shallow remnant low by 72 hours, the NHC official forecast track is a little to the left of ECMWF solution, closer to the TVCN and HCCA consensus model tracks at 72 and 96 h. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 14/2100Z 13.2N 20.2W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 15/0600Z 14.3N 21.1W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 15/1800Z 15.5N 22.4W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 16/0600Z 16.7N 23.4W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 16/1800Z 18.1N 24.6W 35 KT 40 MPH 72H 17/1800Z 20.4N 26.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 18/1800Z 21.4N 29.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 19/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Stewart ]]>
• Tropical Depression Fifteen Wind Speed Probabilities Number 1
  Issued at 2100 UTC MON OCT 14 2019 000 FONT15 KNHC 142039 PWSAT5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152019 2100 UTC MON OCT 14 2019 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 20.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT RIBIERA GRANDE 34 X 1( 1) 5( 6) 8(14) 2(16) X(16) X(16) PRAIA CVI 34 X 6( 6) 2( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) SANTA MARIA CV 34 X 27(27) 12(39) X(39) X(39) X(39) X(39) SANTA MARIA CV 50 X 3( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) $$ FORECASTER STEWART ]]>
• Tropical Depression Fifteen Graphics
  
  5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 14 Oct 2019 20:41:35 GMT
  
  
  Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 14 Oct 2019 21:24:24 GMT ]]>