000

ABNT20 KNHC 211734

TWOAT 



Tropical Weather Outlook

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL

200 PM EDT Mon Aug 21 2017



For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:



Shower and thunderstorm activity has increased today in association

with the remnants of Harvey, but the system still lacks a

well-defined center of circulation.  Some development of this

disturbance is still possible before it reaches the coast of Belize

or the Yucatan Peninsula early Tuesday.  The system is forecast to

move into the Bay of Campeche early Wednesday, where environmental

conditions are expected to be conducive for redevelopment into a

tropical cyclone.  Regardless of development, locally heavy rainfall

and gusty winds are likely to spread westward across Honduras,

Belize, and the Yucatan Peninsula during the next couple of days.

* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.

* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.



A trough of low pressure located near the central Bahamas continues

to produce disorganized showers and thunderstorms.  Some slow

development of this system is possible during the next several days

while it moves west-northwestward across the Bahamas and then turns

northwestward or northward near Florida and the adjacent waters.

* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.

* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.



$$

Forecaster Cangialosi

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No tropical cyclones as of Mon, 21 Aug 2017 20:41:50 GMT