---

Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook

ABNT20 KNHC 051727
TWOAT 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Sat Jul 5 2025

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical 
Storm Chantal, located off the coast of the southeastern United 
States.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.

&&
Public Advisories on Tropical Storm Chantal are listed under WMO 
header WTNT33 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPAT3. 
Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Storm Chantal are listed under 
WMO header WTNT23 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMAT3.

$$
Forecaster Brown]]>

 

Tropical Storm Tropical

• Summary for Tropical Storm Chantal (AT3/AL032025)
  ...CHANTAL STRENGTHENS... ...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO BEGIN IN THE WARNING AREA THIS EVENING... As of 2:00 PM EDT Sat Jul 05 the center of Chantal was located near 31.6, -78.7 with movement N at 3 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1006 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.

---

 

Tropical Storm Chantal

• Tropical Storm Chantal Public Advisory Number 4a
  Issued at 200 PM EDT Sat Jul 05 2025 000 WTNT33 KNHC 051735 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Chantal Intermediate Advisory Number 4A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032025 200 PM EDT Sat Jul 05 2025 ...CHANTAL STRENGTHENS... ...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO BEGIN IN THE WARNING AREA THIS EVENING... SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...31.6N 78.7W ABOUT 105 MI...175 KM SE OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA ABOUT 185 MI...300 KM SSW OF WILMINGTON NORTH CAROLINA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * South Santee River, SC to Surf City, NC A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Edisto Beach to South Santee River, SC A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 12 hours A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, in this case within the next 12 hours. Interests elsewhere along the southeast coast of the United States should monitor the progress of Chantal. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 PM EDT (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Chantal was located near latitude 31.6 North, longitude 78.7 West. Chantal is moving toward the north near 3 mph (6 km/h). A motion toward the north-northwest is expected to begin later today, followed by a turn to the northeast by Sunday night. On the forecast track, the center of Chantal is expected to move across the coast of South Carolina overnight or early Sunday morning. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Some additional strengthening is expected before Chantal reaches the coast. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km) primarily to the east of the center. The estimated minimum central pressure based on aircraft data is 1006 mb (29.71 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Tropical Storm Chantal can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area beginning this evening and continuing through Sunday morning. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area beginning later today. RAINFALL: Tropical Storm Chantal is expected to produce heavy rainfall across portions of the coastal plain of the Carolinas through Monday. Storm total rainfall of 2 to 4 inches, with local amounts up to 6 inches, is expected and these rains could cause flash flooding. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall and flash flooding associated with Tropical Storm Chantal, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?rainqpf STORM SURGE: The combination of storm surge and tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... South Santee River, SC to Surf City, NC...1-3 ft Edisto Beach, SC to South Santee River, SC...1-2 ft TORNADOES: Isolated tornadoes are possible tonight into Sunday along the coast of eastern South Carolina and much of North Carolina. SURF: The tropical storm is expected to bring life-threatening surf and rip currents along the coast from northeastern Florida to the Mid-Atlantic states during the next couple of days. A depiction of rip current risk for the United States can be found at: hurricanes.gov/refresh/graphics_at3+shtml/?ripCurrents NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi/Konarik]]>
• Tropical Storm Chantal Forecast Advisory Number 4
  Issued at 1500 UTC SAT JUL 05 2025 000 WTNT23 KNHC 051453 TCMAT3 TROPICAL STORM CHANTAL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032025 1500 UTC SAT JUL 05 2025 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.1N 78.7W AT 05/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 10 DEGREES AT 1 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 80NE 80SE 0SW 0NW. 4 M SEAS.... 60NE 60SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.1N 78.7W AT 05/1500Z AT 05/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 30.8N 79.0W FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 31.8N 79.0W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 80NE 80SE 0SW 20NW. FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 33.1N 79.3W...INLAND MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 80NE 80SE 0SW 20NW. FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 34.6N 79.2W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 35.8N 78.0W...POST-TROP/INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 31.1N 78.7W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT33 KNHC/MIATCPAT3...AT 05/1800Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 05/2100Z $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI]]>
• Tropical Storm Chantal Forecast Discussion Number 4
  Issued at 1100 AM EDT Sat Jul 05 2025 000 WTNT43 KNHC 051455 TCDAT3 Tropical Storm Chantal Discussion Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032025 1100 AM EDT Sat Jul 05 2025 Satellite images suggest that Chantal has been organizing and gaining strength. The storm is still asymmetric though, with most of the associated showers and thunderstorms located near and to the east of the center. The Air Force Hurricane Hunters are currently investigating the system and have found that the pressure has dropped to 1007 mb. The plane has yet to sample the area of strong thunderstorms, where the highest winds are likely occurring. The initial intensity is set at 35 kt for now. The outer rainbands are beginning to reach portions of South and North Carolina, and conditions along the coast within the watch and warning areas are expected to continue to deteriorate throughout the day. Chantal has barely moved since last night, but a motion to the north-northwest is expected to begin soon. The main steering features appear to be a mid- to upper-level low over the Gulf and a narrow mid-level ridge across the mid-Atlantic region. The flow between these features should cause Chantal to move inland over South Carolina Sunday morning. It should be noted that center reformations are possible, which could cause some erratic motion. After landfall, a turn to the northeast is expected when the storm moves on the western side of the ridge. The NHC track forecast lies close to the previous one, and the latest HCCA and Google Deep Mind solutions. Additional strengthening seems likely in the short term as Chantal is expected to remain over warm water and move into a lower wind shear environment. In addition, the shear direction is expected to shift from southwesterly to southerly, which is more conducive for strengthening. The NHC intensity forecast is a little higher than the previous one, and in line with the latest HMON, HAFS-A, and HAFS-B guidance. After landfall, steady weakening is expected until the system dissipates in 48 to 60 hours. Chantal is expected to remain a lopsided system during the next day or so. Therefore, the strongest winds are anticipated to occur to the right of the landfall location. Key Messages: 1. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area beginning this evening and continuing through Sunday morning. 2. Heavy rainfall across the coastal Carolinas will cause some flash flooding through Monday. Isolated to scattered flash flooding could occur within more urbanized areas in the coastal plain of the Carolinas. 3. Chantal is expected to bring life-threatening surf and rip currents along the coast from northeastern Florida to the Mid-Atlantic states during the next couple of days. Beach goers should heed the advice of lifeguards and local officials. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 05/1500Z 31.1N 78.7W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 06/0000Z 31.8N 79.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 06/1200Z 33.1N 79.3W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND 36H 07/0000Z 34.6N 79.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 48H 07/1200Z 35.8N 78.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 60H 08/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Cangialosi/Konarik]]>
• Tropical Storm Chantal Wind Speed Probabilities Number 4
  Issued at 1500 UTC SAT JUL 05 2025 000 FONT13 KNHC 051455 PWSAT3 TROPICAL STORM CHANTAL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032025 1500 UTC SAT JUL 05 2025 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CHANTAL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 31.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 78.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT DANVILLE VA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) OCEANA NAS VA 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 5( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) RALEIGH NC 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) ROCKY MT NC 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) CAPE HATTERAS 34 1 3( 4) 1( 5) 4( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) FAYETTEVILLE 34 X 3( 3) 6( 9) 3(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) CHERRY PT NC 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) NEW RIVER NC 34 3 6( 9) 2(11) 4(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) MOREHEAD CITY 34 3 7(10) 3(13) 4(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) SURF CITY NC 34 7 12(19) 5(24) 4(28) X(28) X(28) X(28) WILMINGTON NC 34 1 7( 8) 4(12) 2(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) BALD HEAD ISL 34 14 26(40) 5(45) 1(46) X(46) X(46) X(46) BALD HEAD ISL 50 X 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) FLORENCE SC 34 X 9( 9) 4(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) LITTLE RIVER 34 15 36(51) 6(57) 1(58) X(58) X(58) X(58) LITTLE RIVER 50 X 4( 4) 3( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) MYRTLE BEACH 34 19 42(61) 5(66) X(66) X(66) X(66) X(66) MYRTLE BEACH 50 X 7( 7) 3(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) MYRTLE BEACH 64 X 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) GEORGETOWN SC 34 6 28(34) 1(35) X(35) X(35) X(35) X(35) CHARLESTON SC 34 30 29(59) 1(60) X(60) X(60) X(60) X(60) CHARLESTON SC 50 X 6( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) BEAUFORT MCAS 34 17 10(27) 1(28) X(28) X(28) X(28) X(28) KINGS BAY GA 34 4 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) MAYPORT NS FL 34 4 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI]]>
• Tropical Storm Chantal Graphics
  
  5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 05 Jul 2025 17:35:59 GMT
  
  
  Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 05 Jul 2025 15:22:25 GMT ]]>

---

Local Statement for Charleston, SC

Issued at 1120 AM EDT

---

Local Statement for Wilmington, NC

Issued at 1112 AM EDT