000

ABNT20 KNHC 010512

TWOAT 



Tropical Weather Outlook

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL

200 AM EDT Thu Oct 1 2020



For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:



Showers and thunderstorms located over the west-central Caribbean 

Sea are associated with a tropical wave. A broad area of low 

pressure is expected to form in a day or so over the northwest 

Caribbean Sea or the extreme southern Gulf of Mexico in the vicinity 

of the wave as it moves slowly west-northwestward. Conditions are 

forecast to be conducive for development thereafter in that region, 

and a tropical depression could form over the weekend as the 

system meanders. Interests in Belize, the Yucatan Peninsula, and 

western Cuba should monitor the progress of this disturbance.

* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.

* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.



Another tropical wave located a couple hundred miles east of the 

Lesser Antilles is producing widespread cloudiness and disorganized 

shower activity.  This disturbance is forecast to move westward 

during the next several days where environmental conditions could 

become a little more conducive for development over the central or 

western Caribbean Sea by early next week.

* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.

* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.



$$

Forecaster Latto

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No tropical cyclones as of Thu, 01 Oct 2020 06:43:44 GMT