ABNT20 KNHC 221137
TWOAT 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Wed Oct 22 2025

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical 
Storm Melissa, located over the central Caribbean Sea.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.

&&
Public Advisories on Tropical Storm Melissa are issued under WMO 
header WTNT33 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPAT3.
Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Storm Melissa are issued under WMO 
header WTNT23 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMAT3.

$$
Forecaster Bucci]]>

Tropical Storm Tropical

• Summary for Tropical Storm Melissa (AT3/AL132025)
  ...MELISSA DRIFTING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN... ...HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS OF HISPANIOLA AND JAMAICA OVER THE REMAINDER OF THIS WEEK... As of 11:00 AM EDT Wed Oct 22 the center of Melissa was located near 14.4, -73.6 with movement WNW at 2 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1000 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 50 mph.

Tropical Storm Melissa

• Tropical Storm Melissa Public Advisory Number 5
  Issued at 1100 AM EDT Wed Oct 22 2025 494 WTNT33 KNHC 221450 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Melissa Advisory Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132025 1100 AM EDT Wed Oct 22 2025 ...MELISSA DRIFTING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN... ...HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS OF HISPANIOLA AND JAMAICA OVER THE REMAINDER OF THIS WEEK... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...14.4N 73.6W ABOUT 300 MI...485 KM SSW OF PORT AU PRINCE HAITI ABOUT 325 MI...525 KM SE OF KINGSTON JAMAICA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Southwestern peninsula of Haiti from the border with the Dominican Republic to Port-Au-Prince A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Jamaica A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests elsewhere in Haiti, the Dominican Republic, and Cuba should monitor the progress of Melissa. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 AM EDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Melissa was located by Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft near latitude 14.4 North, longitude 73.6 West. Melissa is moving slowly toward the west-northwest near 2 mph (4 km/h). A continued slow forward speed and a gradual turn to the northwest and north-northwest is expected during the next couple of days, followed by a turn back westward by the end of the week. On the forecast track, Melissa is expected to approach Jamaica and the southwestern portion of Haiti later this week. Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Some gradual strengthening is anticipated during the next few days, and Melissa could become a hurricane by Friday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km) from the center. The minimum central pressure estimated by aircraft dropsonde data is 1000 mb (29.53 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Melissa can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC. WIND: Hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area in Haiti beginning late on Thursday. Tropical storm conditions could begin in Jamaica late on Thursday or Friday. RAINFALL: Melissa is expected to bring 5 to 10 inches of rain to the southern Dominican Republic, southern Haiti, and eastern Jamaica through Saturday, with locally higher amounts possible. Additional heavy rainfall is possible beyond Saturday; however, uncertainty in Melissa’s track and forward speed reduces confidence in exact totals. Significant flash flooding and landslides are possible. Across Puerto Rico, northern Dominican Republic, northern Haiti, and western Jamaica, 2 to 4 inches of rain is expected through Saturday. Flash and urban flooding will be possible through at least Saturday. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Melissa, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?rainqpf SURF: Swells generated by Melissa are expected to spread to Hispaniola, Jamaica, and eastern Cuba during the next couple of days. Please consult products from your local weather office. A depiction of rip current risk for the United States can be found at: hurricanes.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?ripCurrents NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM EDT. Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT. $$ Forecaster Papin]]>
• Tropical Storm Melissa Forecast Advisory Number 5
  Issued at 1500 UTC WED OCT 22 2025 000 WTNT23 KNHC 221448 TCMAT3 TROPICAL STORM MELISSA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132025 1500 UTC WED OCT 22 2025 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.4N 73.6W AT 22/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 2 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT.......100NE 90SE 0SW 60NW. 4 M SEAS....150NE 60SE 0SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.4N 73.6W AT 22/1500Z AT 22/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.3N 73.5W FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 14.8N 73.9W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 0SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 15.2N 74.3W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT...100NE 90SE 30SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 15.6N 74.4W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 35NE 25SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT...100NE 90SE 30SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 16.0N 74.4W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT...110NE 90SE 30SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 16.3N 74.6W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 10SW 25NW. 34 KT...110NE 90SE 30SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 16.5N 74.9W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 10SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 25SW 35NW. 34 KT...120NE 110SE 60SW 80NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 26/1200Z 16.6N 75.8W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 50 KT... 55NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...160NE 150SE 80SW 110NW. OUTLOOK VALID 27/1200Z 16.4N 77.4W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. 50 KT... 75NE 55SE 50SW 60NW. 34 KT...190NE 180SE 130SW 140NW. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.4N 73.6W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT33 KNHC/MIATCPAT3...AT 22/1800Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/2100Z $$ FORECASTER PAPIN]]>
• Tropical Storm Melissa Forecast Discussion Number 5
  Issued at 1100 AM EDT Wed Oct 22 2025 000 WTNT43 KNHC 221455 TCDAT3 Tropical Storm Melissa Discussion Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132025 1100 AM EDT Wed Oct 22 2025 While Melissa continues to produce bursting convection on satellite imagery, with very cold cloud tops down to -95C, there is little evidence these convective bands are wrapping around the center. West-northwesterly shear of 20 to 25 kt is currently preventing the low-level and mid-level circulation centers from aligning. This downshear tilt with height has also been observed by the latest Air Force Reconnaissance mission, which reported significant winds at the surface in their most recent 850 mb center drop. The initial intensity for this advisory is held at 45 kt, taking a blend of recon observations which had a peak wind of 52 kt at 850 mb, and satellite intensity estimates from TAFB, ADT, and D-MINT. The wind field of Melissa also remains very asymmetric, as evidence of a recent 1040z RCM-1 Synthetic Aperture Radar pass showing the bulk of tropical-storm-force winds east of the center. The tropical storm has slowed down to a crawl this morning, with the estimated motion at 300/2 kt. The track forecast remains challenging today, and strongly related to the storm's structure in the short-term. For the next 12-24 hours, Melissa is forecast to move very slowly to the northwest as it attempts to move into a weakness produced by an broad upper-level trough centered over the Bahamas. Whether or not it turns more rightward into this weakness is related to the vertical depth the various model guidance is depicting. The 06z GFS run, which is the model that has been on the right side of the guidance envelope for days, shows a more vertically coherent system over the next 24-48 hours, and causes Melissa to abruptly turn northeastward over the next 48 hours. While this appears to be an outlier solution, the Google DeepMind ensemble mean (GDMI) also shows this northeastward motion, and a significant fraction of its ensemble members show the Melissa making landfall on the Island of Hispaniola. However, the remainder of the track guidance, including the ECMWF and its ensemble mean, suggest that Melissa will remain misaligned and move more slowly north-northwest over the next couple of days. The NHC track solution slightly favors the latter scenarios, lying just east of the ECMWF mean, out of respect of the reliable GDMI aid. After about 60 h, mid-level ridging begins to build back in to the north, and most of the guidance responds by showing a sharp turn westward, albeit still at a snail's pace. The overall track guidance, GFS and GDMI excluded, has shifted left this cycle beyond 72 h, and the NHC track was shifted in that direction, but not as far south and west as the HAFS-A/B regional models. It goes without saying, this is a very challenging track forecast. The intensity forecast has its own share of challenges. At least in the short-term, vertical wind shear is expected to persist between 20 to 30 kt, and will likely prevent Melissa from becoming fully aligned and taking advantage over the very warm 30-31C sea surface temperatures. After about 48 hours, the GFS and ECMWF-based SHIPS guidance shows the shear decreasing gradually, but the timing on when the system becomes more vertically coherent varies among both the global and hurricane-regional model guidance. Most of the guidance shows significant or even rapid intensification in days 3-5, and the NHC intensity forecast was raised once again during this time frame, but not as high as the HCCA or hurricane-regional models due to continuity constraints to the previous forecast. The day 5 forecast now shows Melissa becoming a major hurricane, and further upward adjustments may be necessary in subsequent cycles. The intensity forecast is also more uncertain than usual, in large part related to the track uncertainty. Key Messages: 1. Melissa is expected to produce heavy rainfall across portions of the Dominican Republic, Haiti, and Jamaica through this weekend, bringing a risk of significant flash flooding and landslides. 2. Hurricane conditions are possible in the southwestern peninsula of Haiti where a Hurricane Watch is in effect. A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for Jamaica. Preparations to protect life and property should be completed by Thursday. 3. There is significant uncertainty in the track and intensity forecast of Melissa. Interests elsewhere in Hispaniola and Cuba should continue to monitor the latest forecasts. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 22/1500Z 14.4N 73.6W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 23/0000Z 14.8N 73.9W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 23/1200Z 15.2N 74.3W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 24/0000Z 15.6N 74.4W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 24/1200Z 16.0N 74.4W 55 KT 65 MPH 60H 25/0000Z 16.3N 74.6W 60 KT 70 MPH 72H 25/1200Z 16.5N 74.9W 70 KT 80 MPH 96H 26/1200Z 16.6N 75.8W 90 KT 105 MPH 120H 27/1200Z 16.4N 77.4W 105 KT 120 MPH $$ Forecaster Papin]]>
• Tropical Storm Melissa Wind Speed Probabilities Number 5
  Issued at 1500 UTC WED OCT 22 2025 000 FONT13 KNHC 221450 PWSAT3 TROPICAL STORM MELISSA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132025 1500 UTC WED OCT 22 2025 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM MELISSA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 73.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT GUANAJA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) PUERTO CABEZAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) SAN ANDRES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) PT GALLINAS 34 1 1( 2) 2( 4) 2( 6) 2( 8) 3(11) 2(13) MAYAGUANA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) GRAND TURK 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) ISLE OF PINES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) CIENFUEGOS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) CAMAGUEY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) GUANTANAMO BAY 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 7(11) 4(15) GRAND CAYMAN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 9(13) GRAND CAYMAN 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) GRAND CAYMAN 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) MONTEGO BAY 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) 8(12) 20(32) 12(44) MONTEGO BAY 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 6(13) MONTEGO BAY 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) KINGSTON 34 X 2( 2) 2( 4) 3( 7) 19(26) 22(48) 10(58) KINGSTON 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 11(16) 7(23) KINGSTON 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 3( 9) LES CAYES 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 4( 6) 12(18) 9(27) 4(31) LES CAYES 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) 2( 8) PORT-AU-PRINCE 34 X 2( 2) 3( 5) 4( 9) 11(20) 8(28) 4(32) PORT-AU-PRINCE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) PORT-AU-PRINCE 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) CAPE BEATA 34 1 2( 3) 3( 6) 3( 9) 9(18) 5(23) 4(27) CAPE BEATA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) CAPE BEATA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) PUERTO PLATA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 2( 6) 2( 8) SANTO DOMINGO 34 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 3( 4) 2( 6) 2( 8) $$ FORECASTER PAPIN]]>
• Tropical Storm Melissa Graphics
  
  5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 22 Oct 2025 14:57:34 GMT
  
  
  Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 22 Oct 2025 15:21:58 GMT ]]>