RSS Mesoscale Discussions from Storm Prediction Center
No watches are valid as of Sun May 24 17:58:01 UTC 2026.
MD 0846 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR MUCH OF GEORGIA...EASTERN ALABAMA...INTO FAR WESTERN SOUTH CAROLINA
Mesoscale Discussion 0846
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1255 PM CDT Sun May 24 2026
Areas affected...Much of Georgia...eastern Alabama... into far
western South Carolina
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 241755Z - 242000Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent
SUMMARY...Scattered thunderstorms may pose a risk for occasional
damaging gusts this afternoon. Storm organization will be limited
and a WW is unlikely.
DISCUSSION...As of 1745 UTC, visible and radar imagery showed
thunderstorms increasing in coverage over eastern AL, FL and much of
GA. Ample heating is occurring within a very moist air mass (70s F
dewpoints) supporting moderate instability. While low and mid-level
flow are quite weak, locally stronger convergence is occurring near
a broad MCV along the AL/GA border. This will continue to serve as a
focus for convective development this afternoon, with additional
storms likely to develop within the warm sector as convective
temperatures are breached. One or more clusters of stronger storms
appears plausible, with convection gradually spreading
east/northeastward into SC this afternoon/evening.
Given the very weak vertical shear, pulse multicellular storms are
the expected mode. Heavy water loading (PWATS near or exceeding 2
inches) will favor damaging gust potential with the stronger
downdrafts. But, the lack of broader upper air support and very weak
shear suggests the threat will be isolated and dependent on
favorable outflow interactions and storm-scale clustering. With the
severe potential likely to be sporadic, a WW is very unlikely.
..Lyons/Guyer.. 05/24/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...CHS...CAE...GSP...JAX...FFC...TAE...BMX...HUN...
LAT...LON 30518351 30548433 31028490 32578573 33828614 34678570
34698508 34358418 34418243 33888139 32748127 32338138
31588149 30958197 30668262 30518351
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
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SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1141 AM CDT Sun May 24 2026
Valid 241630Z - 251200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
SIOUXLAND/MIDDLE MISSOURI VALLEY...
...SUMMARY...
Severe storms capable of hail/wind may occur across the Middle
Missouri Valley/Siouxland later this afternoon into evening, with
isolated severe storms also possible this afternoon/early evening
across other parts of the central and southern Plains and Southeast.
...Middle Missouri Valley/Siouxland...
Limited/late-day-arriving forcing for ascent and modest-caliber
low-level moisture return by late May standards continues to temper
forecast confidence details. However, overall environment and
scenario appears to warrant a categorical Slight Risk centered on
Siouxland given some potential for supercells capable of large hail
later this afternoon through early/mid-evening.
A low-amplitude shortwave trough currently over Montana will
eventually influence the region, but generally not until this
evening. Low-level moisture will modestly increase but be offset by
diurnal mixing, near/east of a deepening surface low near the South
Dakota/Nebraska border vicinity. Low-level convergence will maximize
in this corridor, including northeast Nebraska/southeast South
Dakota/far northwest Iowa and at least isolated late-day storm
development is plausible, if not probable. If/where storms do occur,
upwards of 35-40 kt of effective shear associated with
west-northwesterly flow aloft would support supercells capable of
large hail in the presence of steep lapse rates and moderate
buoyancy. Additional and more elevated storm development over time
is expected farther north-northeast this evening into southern
Minnesota with some severe storms possible.
...Southeast States...
An MCV across Alabama will continue to spread east-northeastward and
influence thunderstorm development across Georgia toward South
Carolina and the southern Appalachians. The boundary layer will
continue to destabilize this afternoon and support the possibility
of isolated wind damage with the more robust storm development this
afternoon.
...North/central Texas...
Per visible satellite, ample insolation and heating of a moist
boundary layer will occur in the southern/eastern periphery of a
remnant mid-level low. While low/mid-tropospheric winds will remain
weak, sufficient heating and steep low-level lapse rates may support
some strong/locally severe pulse-type storms capable of downbursts,
and possibly a couple of instances of hail.
..Guyer/Lyons.. 05/24/2026
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SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1232 PM CDT Sun May 24 2026
Valid 251200Z - 261200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE MN
ARROWHEAD REGION...PARTS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND MIDWEST...PARTS
OF NM/FAR WEST TX...AND PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe storms will be possible across parts of
the Minnesota Arrowhead region, central Plains and Midwest,
Southeast, and New Mexico/Far West Texas on Monday.
...MN Arrowhead region...
While large-scale ascent will be nebulous at best amidst modest
midlevel height rises, most guidance depicts strong heating and
potential for at least isolated storm development in the vicinity of
a cold front across parts of MN Arrowhead region during the
afternoon. Deep-layer flow will be modest, but southwesterly surface
winds veering to west-northwesterly aloft will result in 30-35 kt of
effective shear, sufficient for storm organization. Relatively steep
lapse rates and moderate buoyancy will support isolated hail and
localized strong/damaging gusts, if storms can mature across this
region.
...Central Plains into southwest MN/northwest IA...
While forcing will generally be weak, strong diurnal heating may
support isolated storm development in the vicinity of a weak surface
trough/confluence zone from northern NE/southern SD into northwest
IA/southwest MN. Deep-layer flow will be weak, but modest midlevel
west-northwesterlies may provide sufficient deep-layer shear for
some storm organization. Favorable lapse rates and buoyancy will
support potential for isolated hail and localized damaging gusts.
...NM into Far West Texas...
Relatively widespread convection is expected on Monday across parts
of NM into Far West TX, in association with mid/upper-level trough
over the Southwest. Buoyancy is expected to remain relatively modest
across NM, but generally unidirectional southerly flow within a
relatively well-mixed environment will support outflow-driven
clusters capable of localized severe gusts. Strong storms may spread
into parts of Far West TX Monday night, with a continued threat of
strong to localized severe gusts.
...Southeast...
A similar regime to previous days is expected across the Gulf
Coast/Southeast, with widespread convection expected to the east of
a persistent mid/upper-level trough over east TX. Water-loaded
downdrafts will again be capable producing localized wind damage,
with any more organized potential tied to uncertain MCV development.
A Marginal Risk has been included from the FL Panhandle into GA,
where there appears to be the greatest potential for preconvective
heating/destabilization. If organized MCV development occurs, then
there may be some severe potential to the west and north of this
Marginal Risk area.
...Interior Northwest/Northern Rockies...
Thunderstorm development is expected by afternoon from far eastern
OR/WA into ID/western MT/northwest WY, in advance of a vigorous
mid/upper-level shortwave trough moving into the Pacific Northwest.
Much of this activity may be relatively high-based and disorganized,
with strong outflow gusts possible. The most aggressive guidance
regarding moistening and destabilization suggests some marginal
supercell potential across northern ID and far western MT. Severe
probabilities may eventually be needed across parts of the region,
if guidance consensus trends towards a greater potential for
organized convection.
..Dean.. 05/24/2026
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SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1114 AM CDT Sun May 24 2026
Valid 241700Z - 251200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
The previous forecast remains on track with no changes needed for
this outlook update. See previous discussion below.
..Williams.. 05/24/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0158 AM CDT Sun May 24 2026/
...Synopsis...
Upper-level troughing will transition eastward across the northern
Great Lakes today, with weak troughing also in place across the
southern California and the southern Plains. Simultaneously,
upper-level ridging will remain over the East Coast and much of the
High Plains. At the surface, a frontal system will extend from the
southern Great Plains northeastward into the Midwest and
Mid-Atlantic, with multiple mid-level perturbations bringing chances
for wetting rainfall to much of the South and the eastern US.
Similar to Saturday, warm temperatures under subtle ridging will
promote RH reductions to 10-20% across much of the West, but the
lack of a strong surface pressure gradient will largely limit
sustained wind speeds. This will preclude widespread fire weather
concerns. Locally elevated conditions may still be possible in
favored terrain/gap areas, however.
...North-central Montana...
Modest westerly mid-level flow will promote deepening lee troughing
across the southern Canadian Prairies and the northern High Plains
today, with dry and breezy conditions expected across northern
Montana. Sustained westerly surface winds of 15-20 mph and minimum
RH values as low as 15% will promote localized elevated fire weather
concerns, mainly for areas where green up has been delayed by
drought.
...Northern Great Basin into Southern Idaho...
A plume of modest mid/upper-level subtropical moisture will extend
from the Sierra Nevada eastward into southern Idaho, southern
Wyoming, and the northern Colorado Rockies today. Diurnal heating
will promote weak buoyancy within this moisture corridor, which will
subsequently support isolated high-based convection this afternoon.
Fuels and ongoing green up will continue to limit the potential for
dry lightning ignitions. Thus, dry thunderstorm highlights continue
to be withheld.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
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