RSS Mesoscale Discussions from Storm Prediction Center
WW 49 TORNADO AL FL GA CW 120430Z - 121200Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Tornado Watch Number 49
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1230 AM EDT Thu Mar 12 2026
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Tornado Watch for portions of
Southern and Eastern Alabama
Florida Panhandle
Western and Central Georgia
Coastal Waters
* Effective this Thursday morning from 1230 AM until 800 AM EDT.
* Primary threats include...
A couple tornadoes possible
Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible
Isolated large hail events to 1 inch in diameter possible
SUMMARY...A band of strong to severe thunderstorms with embedded
cells and bowing segments will continue east across the Watch during
the overnight and into the early morning. Low to mid-level flow is
forecast to strengthen coincident with gradual moistening and
destabilization of the airmass. The environment will support a
continuation of storm organization and an accompanying threat for
scattered damaging wind gusts and a tornado risk with the more
intense embedded cells within the line.
The tornado watch area is approximately along and 100 statute miles
east and west of a line from 45 miles northeast of La Grange GA to
45 miles southeast of Pensacola FL. For a complete depiction of the
watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU9).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for
tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch
area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for
threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements
and possible warnings.
&&
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 48...
AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail
surface and aloft to 1 inch. Extreme turbulence and surface wind
gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 450. Mean
storm motion vector 25035.
...Smith
Read more
WW 0049 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 49
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SW PFN TO
25 E MAI TO 10 NNE ABY TO 20 W MCN TO 15 SW AHN.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0230
..DEAN..03/12/26
ATTN...WFO...BMX...MOB...TAE...FFC...
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 49
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
FLC005-013-037-039-045-065-073-077-129-121240-
FL
. FLORIDA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BAY CALHOUN FRANKLIN
GADSDEN GULF JEFFERSON
LEON LIBERTY WAKULLA
GAC009-017-019-021-023-027-071-075-079-081-087-091-093-107-125-
131-133-141-153-155-159-163-167-169-173-175-185-205-209-211-225-
235-237-253-265-271-275-277-279-283-287-289-301-303-309-315-317-
319-321-121240-
GA
. GEORGIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BALDWIN BEN HILL BERRIEN
BIBB BLECKLEY BROOKS
COLQUITT COOK CRAWFORD
CRISP DECATUR DODGE
DOOLY EMANUEL GLASCOCK
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WW 0048 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 48
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SSE HUM
TO 40 N BVE TO 25 NE MOB TO 30 W GZH TO 20 S SEM TO 40 NNW MGM.
..DEAN..03/12/26
ATTN...WFO...MOB...BMX...LIX...JAN...
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 48
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
LAC075-120740-
LA
. LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE
PLAQUEMINES
GMZ532-536-538-632-120740-
CW
. ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE
MISSISSIPPI SOUND
CHANDELEUR SOUND
BRETON SOUND
MISSISSIPPI SOUND
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
Read more
MD 0230 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 49... FOR PARTS OF CENTRAL/SOUTHERN GA INTO THE FL PANHANDLE AND A SMALL PART OF WESTERN SC
Mesoscale Discussion 0230
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0535 AM CDT Thu Mar 12 2026
Areas affected...Parts of central/southern GA into the FL Panhandle
and a small part of western SC
Concerning...Tornado Watch 49...
Valid 121035Z - 121200Z
The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 49 continues.
SUMMARY...The threat for damaging winds and embedded brief tornadoes
may continue to spread eastward through dawn. Downstream watch
issuance is possible.
DISCUSSION...A QLCS is moving across parts of GA and FL Panhandle as
of 1030 UTC. Several embedded circulations and possible brief
tornadoes have been noted over the last 1-2 hours, especially where
discrete cells earlier merged into the line across far southeast AL
into southwest GA. Downstream of this QLCS, increasing low-level
flow has been noted from the KJGX and KVAX VWPs. This strengthening
flow will continue to aid in low-level moisture transport
along/ahead of the line. The gradually increasing downstream
moisture and buoyancy, combined with ascent attendant to a
fast-moving mid/upper-level shortwave trough, will help to sustain
organized convection through dawn as the QLCS moves
east-northeastward.
The strongest surface pressure falls at 10 UTC were noted in advance
of the north-south oriented portion of the line moving across
west-central/southwest GA, with strong pressure rises noted in the
wake of this section of the line. A corridor of somewhat greater
wind-damage potential may accompany this portion of the line as it
moves across central GA. Otherwise, at least locally damaging wind
will remain possible along the length of the QLCS, with strong
low-level flow/shear supporting embedded brief-tornado potential.
The magnitude of destabilization into parts of eastern GA and SC
remains uncertain, though if the QLCS remains organized, some
potential for wind damage and brief tornadoes may eventually spread
east of locally expanded WW 49. Downstream watch issuance is
possible, depending on short-term observational trends.
..Dean/Mosier.. 03/12/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...CHS...CAE...GSP...JAX...FFC...TAE...
LAT...LON 32958390 33678347 34018253 33958179 33408170 32598189
31748243 30878341 30098432 29768492 29768541 29838576
30008586 30388582 30958486 31938411 32958390
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-130 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
Read more
SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0141 AM CDT Thu Mar 12 2026
Valid 141200Z - 151200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Saturday.
...Synopsis...
A potent upper trough will dig southward across the Rockies on
Saturday, emerging over the northern Plains to southern Rockies by
Sunday morning. In response to sharp height falls, a deepening
surface cyclone over the central High Plains will develop eastward
through the period, becoming oriented over the Lower MO Valley
Sunday morning. A prior cold frontal passage deep into the Gulf will
result in only modest moisture return northward across the
south-central U.S., with any deeper boundary-layer moisture
remaining mostly offshore, and across south TX. Given this dry
airmass ahead of the surface low and associated trailing cold front
moving across the Plains, little instability is forecast and
thunderstorms are unlikely through early Sunday across much of the
warm sector over the south-central U.S.
Isolated thunderstorms are possible across south FL where a
seasonally warm/moist and unstable airmass will reside. Large-scale
ascent will remain nebulous, but isolated thunderstorms could
develop along the sea breeze across the southwest Peninsula. Weak
vertical shear and poor lapse rates will preclude severe
thunderstorm potential.
..Leitman.. 03/12/2026
Read more
Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0315 AM CDT Thu Mar 12 2026
Valid 151200Z - 201200Z
...DISCUSSION...
...Day 4/Sunday - ArkLaTex/Lower MS Valley into the Middle MS/Lower
OH Valleys...
An intense upper trough will deepen over the Plains and shift east
to the MS Valley on Sunday. From late afternoon into the nighttime
hours, an 80-100 kt jet streak will develop within the base of the
trough and overspread portions of the region. At the surface, an
already strong cyclone will deepen further as it moves from the
Lower MO Valley to the Lower Great Lakes vicinity. As this occurs, a
strong cold front will sweep eastward across the southern Plains and
much of the Midwest and Southern U.S., becoming oriented from Ohio
to the FL Panhandle by Monday morning.
While strengthening southerly low-level flow will develop ahead of
the front, stronger Gulf moisture return will be confined to TX and
the Lower MS Valley vicinity, with mainly 50s dewpoints expected
with northward extent across the Middle MS and OH Valley regions.
Furthermore, capping is expected ahead of the cold front,
potentially limiting warm sector convection. Nevertheless, modest
moisture and steepening midlevel lapse rates will support at least
weak destabilization very near the cold front. A narrow line of
strongly-forced convection is expected to develop along the cold
front and move across portions of OK/TX into the Middle/Lower MS and
Lower OH/TN Valley regions. Given intense deep-layer flow near and
just behind the cold front, strong/damaging wind potential will
exist within a modest instability/high shear environment. A 15
percent severe delineation has been included from the ArkLaTex into
the Mid-South/Lower MS Valley vicinity. Depending on low-level
moisture/instability trends, this area may need to be expanded north
and east into a larger portion of the Middle MS/Lower OH/TN Valley
vicinity in subsequent outlooks.
...Day 5/Monday - Southeast to Mid-Atlantic...
Severe thunderstorm potential will likely continue into Monday as
the intense upper trough continues to migrate east from the MS
Valley toward the Eastern Seaboard. Intense deep-layer southwesterly
flow will overspread portions of the Southeast to the Mid-Atlantic.
Meanwhile, 60s F dewpoints will extend from southeast GA northward
through the Mid-Atlantic ahead of a sharp cold front. Pre-frontal
surface troughing across the VA/NC Piedmont also will support
backing low-level winds, leading to enhanced low-level shear.
Depending on how much cloud cover and warm advection precipitation
occurs ahead of the cold front, stronger destabilization may be
inhibited. Nevertheless, at least weak instability is forecast ahead
of a strongly forced line of convection along the eastward-advancing
cold front. This activity alone could produce a swath of strong to
severe wind gusts. A more conditional risk of supercells across the
warm sector exists across eastern VA/NC, but this is more uncertain.
Given damaging wind potential with the strongly forced linear
convection, a 15 percent severe delineation has been added for
portions of the region.
...Days 6-8/Tuesday-Thursday...
Severe thunderstorm potential will be low Tuesday through Thursday
as strong surface high pressure builds in the wake of the earlier
cold frontal passage. A dry/stable airmass will prevail as Gulf
moisture remains well offshore.
Read more
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0127 AM CDT Thu Mar 12 2026
Valid 121200Z - 131200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS...
...Synopsis...
Critical fire-weather conditions are forecast today as a strong and
deepening surface cyclone associated with an intense 100+ kt
mid-level jet moves from the Northern Great Plains into the upper
Midwest, with an expansive wind field bringing dry and breezy
conditions to the Central and Southern Great Plains.
...Central and Southern Great Plains...
Strong west-northwesterly flow aloft and deep boundary layer mixing
will result in dry and windy conditions across much of the Central
and Southern Great Plains. With the winds having a strong downslope
component, widespread relative humidity of 10-15% will overlap with
winds of 25-35 MPH. The strongest winds will occur across northern
portions of the outlook area (closer to the surface low), primarily
across Wyoming and Nebraska reaching 35-40 MPH. However, these
stronger winds will occur with relatively higher relative humidity
(25-35%) and fuels that have received some recent wetting rainfall.
In the Southern Plains, winds will be generally weaker around 25 MPH
but with significantly drier surface conditions at around 10%
relative humidity and critically dry fuels.
..Halbert.. 03/12/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0128 AM CDT Thu Mar 12 2026
Valid 131200Z - 141200Z
...Synopsis...
Dry and breezy downslope winds are forecast to return to the Central
and Southern High Plains on Friday as deep boundary layer mixing
transports strong west-northwesterly flow from aloft to the surface.
Widespread winds of 15-20 MPH and relative humidity of 10-15% is
expected to overlap with dry and receptive fuels. Locally critical
conditions may occur where favored by topography, but uncertainty in
the magnitude and duration of these stronger winds precludes
Critical highlights at this time.
..Halbert.. 03/12/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
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