RSS Mesoscale Discussions from Storm Prediction Center
No watches are valid as of Wed Feb 11 07:41:02 UTC 2026.
No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Wed Feb 11 07:41:02 UTC 2026.
SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1129 PM CST Tue Feb 10 2026
Valid 111200Z - 121200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected.
...CA/Great Basin...
Weak midlevel height falls are forecast to spread across CA into the
Great Basin later this afternoon in response to an upper low that
will advance slowly inland. Latest model guidance suggests this
feature will contribute to destabilization across much of central CA
into NV/UT as sub -24C at 500mb exists beneath the upper low.
Associated surface low is forecast to struggle advancing inland so
weak south-southeasterly boundary-layer flow is expected across the
interior valleys. Forecast soundings exhibit weak vertical shear,
but modest turning with height. While buoyancy will remain weak, a
few low-topped storms could weakly rotate given the veering
profiles. Aside from lightning, the greatest risk would be small
hail, at best, with this diurnally enhanced convection.
...Southeast...
Westerly flow will gradually deepen across the Southeast later today
in advance of a surface front that will advance toward the SC/GA
coast by early evening. Some boundary-layer heating is expected
ahead of the wind shift such that weak buoyancy is forecast ahead of
the front. Latest forecast soundings suggest the most robust
convection could attain heights necessary for lightning discharge,
but this activity is expected to remain isolated.
..Darrow/Squitieri.. 02/11/2026
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SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1143 PM CST Tue Feb 10 2026
Valid 121200Z - 131200Z
...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are not expected on Thursday.
...Synopsis...
Overall thunderstorms potential appears low on Thursday, largely
driven by upper level ridging over the central CONUS and a
dry/stable airmass east of the Rockies. An upper trough is forecast
to develop east across portions of the Great Basin into southern CA.
Cooling aloft may support a brief period of weak instability and a
lightning flash or two cannot be ruled out across the UT vicinity.
However, chances for 10 percent or greater coverage appear low given
midlevel drying after about 15z.
..Leitman.. 02/11/2026
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SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0138 AM CST Wed Feb 11 2026
Valid 131200Z - 141200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF WESTERN TEXAS...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms could produce small to
marginally severe hail Friday evening into the overnight hours
across portions of western Texas.
...West TX Vicinity...
Friday will begin with upper level ridging centered over the
central/southern High Plains. South/southeasterly low-level flow
across the western Gulf into west TX will transport modest boundary
layer moisture northwestward into the Trans-Pecos/Permian Basin, and
northward into the TX South Plains and Red River Valley. Meanwhile,
an upper trough oriented over southern CA/northwest Mexico will
steadily shift east toward the southern Rockies by early Saturday.
As this occurs, the upper ridge will shift east and midlevel
moistening/cooling will occur after 00z. Furthermore, deep-layer
southwesterly flow will increase across western TX.
Elevated instability is expected to develop by late afternoon/early
evening across the region in response to increasing moisture and
cooling aloft. As large-scale ascent overspreads the southern
Rockies/High Plains, scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop
on the nose of a 30-40 kt southerly low-level jet. Convection will
likely remain elevated given post-sunset timing and nocturnal
stabilization of the boundary layer. Nevertheless, supercell wind
profiles, with elongated/straight hodographs above 3km are present
in forecast soundings, along with steep midlevel lapse rates.
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms could produce marginally
severe hail to near 1-inch diameter during the evening/overnight
hours.
..Leitman.. 02/11/2026
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SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1149 PM CST Tue Feb 10 2026
Valid 111200Z - 121200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
...Synopsis...
An upper ridge will persist over the central U.S. as upper troughs
traverse the East and West Coasts today, resulting in moist return
flow across the Plains as surface high pressure and cool conditions
prevail east of the Mississippi River. The lack of overlapping dry
and windy conditions across the CONUS should limit significant
wildfire-spread potential through the Day 1 period.
..Squitieri.. 02/11/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
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SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1154 PM CST Tue Feb 10 2026
Valid 121200Z - 131200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
...Synopsis...
An upper ridge will persist across the Plains States while a
mid-level trough ejects into the Atlantic, and another upper trough
traverses the Desert Southwest tomorrow (Thursday). Similar to Day
1, surface high pressure and associated cooler conditions should
prevail from the Mississippi River to the East Coast, while moist
southerly flow from the Gulf continues over the Plains. As such,
another day of relatively quiescent fire weather conditions is in
store for the CONUS.
Some consideration was given to the addition of Elevated highlights
along the northeast New Mexico/northern Texas Panhandle border given
relatively dry downslope flow expected tomorrow afternoon. However,
RH has trended higher in some of the more recent guidance,
precluding fire weather highlights at this time.
..Squitieri.. 02/11/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
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