RSS Mesoscale Discussions from Storm Prediction Center
No watches are valid as of Fri Jul 10 12:31:02 UTC 2026.
MD 1572 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL MISSOURI
Mesoscale Discussion 1572
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0726 AM CDT Fri Jul 10 2026
Areas affected...portions of central Missouri
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 101226Z - 101400Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent
SUMMARY...A cluster of thunderstorms may continue to produce
instances of strong to severe wind this morning.
DISCUSSION...A cluster of thunderstorms across central Missouri have
recently shown an uptick in intensity, with radar data from KEAX
sampling rear inflow jet winds around 70-75 kt around 4 kft. This
has produced winds around 60-67 mph in recent observations. Given
less favorable instability and MLCIN downstream, it remains
uncertain how long severe potential will continue. Nonetheless, a
few instances of strong to severe wind will remain possible through
the morning.
..Thornton/Gleason.. 07/10/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...LSX...SGF...EAX...
LAT...LON 38759318 38569338 38539340 38369341 38159342 38109322
37999269 37939220 38119204 38439216 38659250 38759318
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
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Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0359 AM CDT Fri Jul 10 2026
Valid 131200Z - 181200Z
...DISCUSSION...
Ensemble guidance continues to indicate that the western US
mid-level ridge will build into the north-central US during the
first part of the forecast period. Toward the middle and end of the
week, this ridge should retrograde westward as a series of mid-level
troughs move across the apex of the ridge in central Canada. One
particularly strong trough will impact New England on Tuesday into
Wednesday.
... Tuesday/Day 5 ...
GEFS and EPS ensemble guidance is in remarkably good agreement that
a strong short-wave trough will approach New England during the day
on Tuesday and move across the region Tuesday night. Ahead of this
trough, both ensemble systems have mean surface temperatures in the
70Fs and 80Fs with surface dewpoints in the mid-to-upper-60Fs across
much of the area. The result will be MUCAPE values in the 1000-2000
J/kg range amidst seasonably strong vertical shear. Supporting this
are ensemble probabilities greater than 50 percent for the supercell
composite index to be greater than 1.
As the trough approaches New England, the expectation is for one or
more clusters of storms to develop during the afternoon across
portions of Quebec and move into and then across New England during
the late afternoon into evening/overnight hours. Although there is
some spread within the ensemble regarding the timing of the wave
moving across the area, with solutions ranging from afternoon to
overnight, the overall environment should remain favorable for
damaging thunderstorm winds to occur, even into the early overnight
hours.
... Friday/Day 8 ...
Ensemble guidance is beginning to suggest some severe potential
across portions of the Ohio Valley into the Mid-Atlantic region.
This area is forecast to be on the eastern periphery of the strong
western US ridge and near the basal region of a long-wave trough
across eastern Canada and New England. Surface temperatures are
expected to range from the upper-80Fs to mid-90Fs with surface
dewpoint temperatures in the 60Fs. Parcel trajectories around the
western ridge do not favor much in the way of an elevated mixed
layer, so scattered thunderstorm development is likely. The
magnitude of the severe potential will likely rest on the strength
of the deep-layer shear and the number of storms.
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