RSS Mesoscale Discussions from Storm Prediction Center
WW 478 SEVERE TSTM KS NE 100145Z - 100800Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 478
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
845 PM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of
Western and central Kansas
Extreme southwest and south central Nebraska
* Effective this Thursday night and Friday morning from 845 PM
until 300 AM CDT.
* Primary threats include...
Scattered damaging winds likely with isolated significant gusts
to 75 mph possible
Isolated large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible
SUMMARY...A well-developed line of storms will continue eastward
along and south of the Kansas/Nebraska border into the overnight
hours. The storm environment and primarily linear storm mode
suggest that severe outflow gusts up to 75 mph will be the main
threat, though isolated large hail will also be possible (especially
in the short term across northwest Kansas).
The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 85
statute miles north and south of a line from 20 miles south of
Goodland KS to 45 miles east northeast of Russell KS. For a complete
depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update
(WOUS64 KWNS WOU8).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.
&&
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 475...WW 476...WW 477...
AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 65 knots. A
few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector
27035.
...Thompson
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WW 477 SEVERE TSTM AR IL KY MO TN 092300Z - 100500Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 477
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
600 PM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of
Extreme northeast Arkansas
Extreme southern Illinois
Extreme western Kentucky
Southern Missouri
Extreme northwest Tennessee
* Effective this Thursday night from 600 PM until Midnight CDT.
* Primary threats include...
Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible
Isolated large hail events to 1 inch in diameter possible
A tornado or two possible
SUMMARY...Clusters of storms will spread east-southeastward from
southeast Missouri into adjacent areas of Arkansas, Kentucky and
Illinois, with the potential to produce occasional wind damage.
Additional storm development is expected in southern Missouri where
a mix of multicell clusters and supercells will be capable of
producing occasional wind damage, isolated large hail and possibly
an isolated tornado or two.
The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 35
statute miles north and south of a line from 30 miles north
northwest of Springfield MO to 50 miles southeast of Cape Girardeau
MO. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch
outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU7).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.
&&
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 474...WW 475...WW 476...
AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
1 inch. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few
cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 600. Mean storm motion vector
31020.
...Thompson
Read more
WW 476 SEVERE TSTM ND 092225Z - 100500Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 476
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
525 PM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of
Central and eastern North Dakota
* Effective this Thursday afternoon from 525 PM until Midnight
CDT.
* Primary threats include...
Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2
inches in diameter possible
Isolated damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible
A tornado or two possible
SUMMARY...Widely scattered supercells are possible through late
evening, starting in northern North Dakota and developing southward
with time. Occasional large hail up to 2 inches in diameter will be
the main threat, though some storm clustering could result in an
increase in the threat for wind damage by late evening. An isolated
tornado or two may also occur with favorable storm/boundary
interactions, though confidence in the tornado threat is low.
The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 75
statute miles east and west of a line from 45 miles northwest of
Devils Lake ND to 75 miles south southwest of Jamestown ND. For a
complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline
update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU6).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.
&&
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 474...WW 475...
AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A
few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 550. Mean storm motion vector
33015.
...Thompson
Read more
WW 0478 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 478
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 NNW LBL
TO 45 SW HLC TO 40 S MCK TO 30 S LBF.
..DEAN..07/10/26
ATTN...WFO...ICT...GLD...DDC...GID...
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 478
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
KSC009-039-047-051-053-055-057-063-065-069-083-089-101-105-123-
135-137-141-145-147-159-163-165-167-179-183-185-195-100540-
KS
. KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BARTON DECATUR EDWARDS
ELLIS ELLSWORTH FINNEY
FORD GOVE GRAHAM
GRAY HODGEMAN JEWELL
LANE LINCOLN MITCHELL
NESS NORTON OSBORNE
PAWNEE PHILLIPS RICE
ROOKS RUSH RUSSELL
SHERIDAN SMITH STAFFORD
TREGO
NEC061-065-083-145-181-100540-
NE
. NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
FRANKLIN FURNAS HARLAN
RED WILLOW WEBSTER
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WW 0477 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 477
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SSE SGF
TO 30 SW JEF TO 25 E VIH.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1570
..DEAN..07/10/26
ATTN...WFO...MEG...PAH...SGF...LSX...
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 477
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ILC003-069-087-127-151-153-181-100540-
IL
. ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ALEXANDER HARDIN JOHNSON
MASSAC POPE PULASKI
UNION
KYC007-033-035-039-047-055-059-075-083-101-105-107-139-143-145-
149-157-177-219-221-225-233-100540-
KY
. KENTUCKY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BALLARD CALDWELL CALLOWAY
CARLISLE CHRISTIAN CRITTENDEN
DAVIESS FULTON GRAVES
HENDERSON HICKMAN HOPKINS
LIVINGSTON LYON MCCRACKEN
MCLEAN MARSHALL MUHLENBERG
TODD TRIGG UNION
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WW 0476 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 476
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NNE MBG
TO 45 E BIS TO 20 SW FAR.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1569
..DEAN..07/10/26
ATTN...WFO...BIS...FGF...
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 476
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
NDC021-045-047-051-073-081-100540-
ND
. NORTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
DICKEY LAMOURE LOGAN
MCINTOSH RANSOM SARGENT
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
Read more
WW 0475 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 475
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 NE SPD TO
40 SSW IML TO 45 ESE AIA TO 15 NE AIA TO 60 SSW PHP.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1566
..DEAN..07/10/26
ATTN...WFO...PUB...GLD...BOU...DDC...LBF...CYS...
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 475
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
COC099-100340-
CO
. COLORADO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
PROWERS
KSC023-071-075-181-199-100340-
KS
. KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CHEYENNE GREELEY HAMILTON
SHERMAN WALLACE
NEC005-029-031-057-075-101-135-161-100340-
NE
. NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ARTHUR CHASE CHERRY
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WW 0474 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 474
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SSW NHK
TO 20 ENE NHK TO 15 WSW DOV TO 20 S TTN.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1563
..HALBERT..07/09/26
ATTN...WFO...LWX...PHI...AKQ...
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 474
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
DEC001-005-100140-
DE
. DELAWARE COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
KENT SUSSEX
MDC011-039-045-047-100140-
MD
. MARYLAND COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CAROLINE SOMERSET WICOMICO
WORCESTER
NJC001-007-009-011-100140-
NJ
. NEW JERSEY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ATLANTIC CAMDEN CAPE MAY
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MD 1570 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 477... FOR PARTS OF SOUTHEAST MO INTO EXTREME SOUTHERN IL/SOUTHWEST KY
Mesoscale Discussion 1570
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1112 PM CDT Thu Jul 09 2026
Areas affected...Parts of southeast MO into extreme southern
IL/southwest KY
Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 477...
Valid 100412Z - 100545Z
The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 477
continues.
SUMMARY...A localized severe threat may continue into the early
morning hours.
DISCUSSION...Earlier convection has generally become disorganized
across southeast MO, though some uptick in storm intensity has been
noted near the southern and eastern periphery of the ongoing
cluster. Rich low-level moisture, moderate buoyancy, and a modest
increase in low-level flow (noted on the KSGF and KPAH VWPs) will
continue to support deep convection into the early overnight hours
across the region. However, marginal deep-layer shear and the
complex/messy storm mode may temper the organized severe threat with
time. Until a more definitive weakening trend occurs, localized wind
damage and perhaps marginal hail will remain possible. Additional
watch issuance is not currently anticipated, though local extension
of WW 477 may be considered, if a notable uptick in storm
organization occurs prior to the 05 UTC expiration time.
..Dean/Thompson.. 07/10/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...PAH...LSX...SGF...
LAT...LON 37929193 38049040 37918966 37378885 36928877 36628897
36618944 36639011 36659074 36789131 36959163 37339206
37929193
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN
Read more
MD 1569 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 476... FOR SOUTHEAST ND INTO NORTHEAST SD AND EXTREME WEST-CENTRAL MN
Mesoscale Discussion 1569
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1023 PM CDT Thu Jul 09 2026
Areas affected...Southeast ND into northeast SD and extreme
west-central MN
Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 476...
Valid 100323Z - 100530Z
The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 476
continues.
SUMMARY...A threat for severe wind and hail will continue
southeastward through late evening, though an eventual weakening
trend is expected.
DISCUSSION...A persistent cluster of storms with embedded supercell
structures is moving southeastward across southeast ND late this
evening. A few measured severe gusts and reports of wind damage have
recently been noted, while MRMS hail-size estimates continue to
occasionally exceed severe criteria. While a favorable combination
of buoyancy and deep-layer shear is in place downstream of this
cluster, nocturnal cooling and increasing MLCINH is expected to
result in a gradual weakening trend by near/after midnight CDT.
Given the forward-propagating nature of this cluster, some threat
for severe wind and/or hail may eventually move out of WW 476 into
parts of northeast SD and extreme west-central MN. Short-term trends
will continue to be monitored regarding any need for downstream
watch issuance.
..Dean/Thompson.. 07/10/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...MPX...FGF...ABR...BIS...
LAT...LON 46800035 47119829 46989763 46759686 46279597 46069576
45479613 45389665 45369811 45489891 45749966 45859985
46000027 46410052 46800035
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN
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SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0757 PM CDT Thu Jul 09 2026
Valid 100100Z - 101200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS...
...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms with severe wind gusts and hail will be possible this
evening across parts of the central and northern Plains. Severe wind
gusts may also occur in parts of the Ozarks, mid Mississippi Valley,
lower Ohio Valley and Arizona.
...Central and Northern Plains...
A mid-level shortwave trough is evident on water vapor imagery over
the central and northern Plains. At the surface, a 1005 mb low is
located over far southwest Kansas with a trough extending northward
across western Kansas and western Nebraska. An axis of low-level
convergence is analyzed across eastern Colorado and far western
Nebraska, along which a line of strong to severe thunderstorms is
ongoing. Ahead of this line, the RAP has moderate instability in
place over much of the central Plains. In addition, the WSR-88D VWPs
at Goodland and Dodge City have 0-6 km shear around 40 knots. This
will be favorable for a severe threat as the line moves eastward
across western Kansas and western Nebraska this evening. Severe wind
gusts will be concentrated along the more intense parts of the line,
and isolated large hail will be possible with rotating cells within
the line itself...see MCD 1564. The line is expected to remain
organized as it moves into central and southern Kansas during the
mid to late evening, where instability is locally stronger.
Further north into the northern Plains, a cold front is located from
northwest South Dakota northeastward into north-central North
Dakota. Ahead of the front, surface dewpoints are mostly in the mid
to upper 60s F, and the RAP has a pocket of strong instability with
MLCAPE in the 3000 to 4000 J/kg range. A cluster of severe storms is
ongoing just to the northeast of the instability max within an area
of strong low-level convergence. Regional WSR-88D VWPs in central
North Dakota have 0-6 km shear around 50 knots, which will support
supercell development with a potential for large hail and severe
wind gusts...see MCD 1565. Hailstones greater than 2 inches in
diameter will be possible with the strongest of cores.
...Ozarks/Mid Mississippi Valley/Lower Ohio Valley...
A very moist airmass is in place from the Ozarks into the mid
Mississippi and lower Ohio Valleys, where surface dewpoints are
mostly in the mid to upper 70s F. Near the highest dewpoints, the
RAP shows an axis of strong instability located from northeast
Arkansas into western Kentucky, where MLCAPE is estimated to be in
the 3000 to 4000 J/kg range. A line of strong to severe storms is
ongoing near the instability axis, and should persist for a few more
hours. This line will have potential for severe wind gusts.
Additional storms with wind-damage potential will be possible over
the lower Ohio Valley and in the Ozarks.
...Southeast Arizona...
Scattered thunderstorms are ongoing early this evening across far
southeast Arizona, along an axis of low-level convergence. Near this
axis, surface dewpoints are from the mid 40s to mid 50s F, and
low-level lapse are very steep. This could support isolated severe
gusts with the stronger multicells.
..Broyles.. 07/10/2026
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