RSS Mesoscale Discussions from Storm Prediction Center
No watches are valid as of Thu Oct 16 07:30:02 UTC 2025.
No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Thu Oct 16 07:30:02 UTC 2025.
SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1239 AM CDT Thu Oct 16 2025
Valid 161200Z - 171200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE CENTRAL
HIGH PLAINS...
...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms associated with marginally severe hail will be
possible on Thursday in the late afternoon across parts of the
central High Plains.
...Synopsis and Discussion...
Broad upper troughing over the western CONUS will move gradually
eastward today as an embedded upper low progresses northeastward
from eastern UT through the western Dakotas. Moderate to strong
mid-level flow will extend through the eastern periphery of this
low, spreading from southern/central Rockies northeastward through
the northern/central Plains and Upper Midwest.
Primary surface low associated with this system will also track
northeastward, beginning the period over the western NE/SD border
vicinity and likely ending the period occluded over the
north-central ND/south-central MB vicinity. This progression will
push a cold front eastward across the Dakotas and western NE, and
southeastward across northeast/east-central CO, and far northwest
KS.
The cold front is forecast to move through western NE, northeast CO,
and far northwest KS around peak heating. Low-level moisture will be
modest (i.e. dewpoints generally in the low 50s), but strong
boundary-layer mixing will result in steep low-level lapse rates and
temperatures in upper 70s/low 80s. These conditions should be
sufficient for modest buoyancy, despite the limited low-level
moisture. Thunderstorms are expected near the front as a combination
of large-scale forcing for ascent and lift along the front interact
with the modest buoyancy.
Moderate to strong (i.e. 50 to 60 kt) effective bulk shear is
expected to be in place, supporting the potential for some more
organized storms. Hail is the primary severe risk, but a few strong
gusts are possible as well. Southerly to perhaps even southeasterly
surface winds will result in some low-level curvature near the front
in northeast CO, northwest KS, and southwest NE, to east/northeast
of a secondary surface low over eastern CO. A low-probability
tornado threat will result, but front-parallel shear suggests a
mostly linear mode as well as tendency for undercutting by the cold
front. As such, any tornado threat should remain low.
Farther north, elevated instability will be maintained across the
northern Plains due to a broad area of 30-50 kt south/southwesterly
low-level jet. Colder temperatures aloft over the northern High
Plains could support small hail at times as activity develops ahead
of the approaching upper low.
..Mosier/Weinman.. 10/16/2025
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SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1236 AM CDT Thu Oct 16 2025
Valid 171200Z - 181200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF
THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE LOWER
MISSOURI VALLEY...
...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms with isolated hail and marginally severe wind gusts
will be possible from Friday evening through the overnight period
from the southern and central Plains into the lower Missouri Valley.
...Southern and Central Plains/Lower Missouri Valley...
A mid-level trough will move eastward across the central Rockies on
Friday, as southwest flow remains in place over much of the Great
Plains. At the surface, a cold front will advance southeastward
across the central Plains, as moisture advection continues ahead of
the front. Surface dewpoints near the boundary are expected to reach
the lower 60s F by Friday afternoon, which will contribute to weak
destabilization from western Oklahoma northeastward into northwest
Missouri. Forecast soundings near the instability axis have MLCAPE
peaking in the 1000 to 1500 J/kg range during the evening. In
addition, 0-6 km shear is forecast to be in the 35 to 45 knot range
along much of the front. The resulting environment could support
supercells with isolated large hail if discrete mode is favored.
However, lapse are expected to remain weak suggesting any severe
potential will remain marginal. A few severe wind gusts may occur as
low-level flow increases ahead of the front during the evening. With
instability and deep-layer shear being sustained through the night,
a marginal severe threat should persist through late in the period.
..Broyles.. 10/16/2025
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SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0227 AM CDT Thu Oct 16 2025
Valid 181200Z - 191200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE ARK-LA-TEX...OZARKS AND MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...
...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms will be possible on Saturday across parts of
the Ark-La-Tex, Ozarks and mid Mississippi Valley. A threat for
tornadoes, damaging wind gusts and hail is expected to develop from
the late morning into the overnight.
...Ark-La-Tex/Ozarks/Mid Mississippi Valley...
A large-scale mid-level trough will move across the Great Plains on
Saturday, as an associated jet streak moves into the Ozarks.
Scattered thunderstorms will likely be ongoing just ahead of the
trough at the start of the period, from eastern Oklahoma into
central Missouri. To the south and east of this activity, moderate
instability is expected to develop during the morning over much of
the Ark-La-Tex and Ozarks. As surface temperatures warm across the
moist sector, convective coverage is forecast to gradually increase.
An MCS appears likely to form during the afternoon, with a
relatively large cluster of storms moving eastward across southern
Missouri, Arkansas and northern Louisiana. The MCS is expected to
become organized and pose a severe threat across the region.
Ahead of the MCS, forecast soundings during the mid afternoon have
MLCAPE peaking between 1500 and 2000 J/kg, with 0-6 km shear in the
50 to 55 knot range. 0-3 km storm-relative helicity is forecast to
increase to about 250 m2/s2 near the low-level jet in the late
afternoon. This should support supercell development with tornado
potential. Storms that remain discrete and interact with the
low-level jet will have the greatest potential for tornadoes.
Supercells should also be capable of large hail. Once the MCS
becomes organized, a transition to linear mode could occur. If this
were to happen, then the wind-damage threat would increase, and
could become the greatest threat. Any severe threat should persist
through the evening, and possibly into the early overnight period,
as the MCS moves eastward across the central Gulf Coast states and
Tennessee Valley.
...Lower Ohio Valley/Southern Great Lakes...
A mid-level trough will move across the Great Plains on Saturday, as
a belt of southwesterly flow remains from the mid Mississippi Valley
into the Great Lakes. At the surface, a cold front will advance
southeastward across the mid to upper Mississippi Valley, and Great
Lakes region. A corridor of low-level moisture will be present ahead
of the front with surface dewpoints in the lower to mid 60s F. This
should allow for weak destabilization by afternoon. Thunderstorms
will develop along parts of the front, and move eastward into the
moist airmass. The models differ markedly on how much instability
will develop across this moist airmass, which adds considerable
uncertainty into the forecast. In spite of this, the combination of
instability and moderate deep-layer shear should be great enough for
an isolated severe threat. Line segments would be favored to produce
damaging wind gusts. A few rotating storms will also be possible.
..Broyles.. 10/16/2025
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SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0112 AM CDT Thu Oct 16 2025
Valid 161200Z - 171200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
...Synopsis...
Preceding an amplified large-scale trough over the West, a robust
midlevel speed maximum will overspread the northern/central Plains,
while a related cold front moves slowly eastward across the region.
At the tail end of the front, an evolving lee cyclone over
southeastern CO and strong midlevel flow across the Front Range will
yield dry/breezy downslope conditions across eastern CO during the
afternoon. Around 15-20 mph sustained west-southwesterly surface
winds and 10-15 percent RH will favor a couple hours of locally
elevated fire-weather conditions where any dry fuels exist.
Farther east, dry/breezy post-frontal conditions are expected across
the Mid-Atlantic region during the afternoon. This may result in
locally elevated fire-weather conditions over areas that missed out
on substantial precipitation during the last couple weeks.
..Weinman.. 10/16/2025
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
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SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0112 AM CDT Thu Oct 16 2025
Valid 171200Z - 181200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
...Synopsis...
A large-scale trough will move gradually eastward across the Great
Plains, while breezy post-frontal winds develop across the
northern/central Plains. A minimal overlap of these breezy winds and
low RH will limit fire-weather concerns here.
Farther west, high pressure will build over the Great Basin on the
backside of the large-scale trough, resulting in a tightening
offshore pressure gradient across southern CA. While dry/breezy
conditions are expected across the wind-prone mountains/valleys of
southwest CA, recent rainfall should limit fire-weather concerns for
most areas.
..Weinman.. 10/16/2025
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
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