RSS Mesoscale Discussions from Storm Prediction Center
No watches are valid as of Sun Nov 23 12:58:02 UTC 2025.
No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Sun Nov 23 12:58:02 UTC 2025.
SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0653 AM CST Sun Nov 23 2025
Valid 231300Z - 241200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING OVER PARTS OF WEST TX....
...SUMMARY...
A few severe storms capable of large hail will be possible this
afternoon and evening across parts of west Texas.
...West TX...
A large upper low currently over AZ will track northeastward into
NM, with a 70+ knot mid-level speed max approaching west TX by this
afternoon. Ahead of this feature, southerly low-level winds will
help transport 50s dewpoints into much of west TX ahead of a diffuse
dryline. Most CAM solutions suggest that scattered thunderstorms
will form along this dryline and track northeastward for a few
hours. Given the strength of deep-layer shear, supercell structures
will be likely with a risk of a large hail and perhaps a tornado.
Storms should weaken by late evening as they move into a
progressively less unstable air mass and diurnal cooling ensues.
..Hart/Broyles.. 11/23/2025
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SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0227 AM CST Sun Nov 23 2025
Valid 251200Z - 261200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE SOUTHEAST...
...SUMMARY...
A few strong to isolated severe storms are possible across portions
of the Southeast on Tuesday.
...Synopsis...
A mid-level trough will amplify across the eastern CONUS on Tuesday
with ridging across the West. A cold front will sharpen near the
Mississippi River and cross the Appalachians by the end of the
period.
...Southeast...
Mid 60s dewpoints will stream northward ahead of a cold front across
the Southeast on Tuesday. This will result in moderate
destabilization within a zone of moderate to strong deep-layer
shear. Minimal inhibition is expected along the front by
mid-afternoon which should support isolated to scattered storm
development. A strong low-level jet, initially across MS/TN/AL
during the morning, will move quickly east and is forecast over the
Mid-Atlantic by 00Z. If this occurs, low-level shear will not be
that strong along the frontal zone Tuesday afternoon/evening.
Therefore, isolated large hail will likely be the primary severe
weather threat. Storm intensity is expected to lessen by late
evening due to the cooling boundary layer ahead of the cold front.
...South Texas...
The southwestern edge of the surface cold front will stall across
South Texas Tuesday afternoon/evening. The environment south of this
front will feature moderate instability and shear. Upper forcing may
be somewhat nebulous, but convergence along the front may be
sufficient for isolated to widely scattered storms late Tuesday
afternoon into the evening. If storms develop, large hail will
likely be the primary threat.
..Bentley.. 11/23/2025
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Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0358 AM CST Sun Nov 23 2025
Valid 261200Z - 011200Z
...DISCUSSION...
The warm sector will be onshore at the beginning of the period
D4/Wed from the Southeast coast to the Carolinas. This may permit a
few thunderstorms along the cold front early Wednesday before the
front moves into the Atlantic. In the wake of this front, cool, dry
air and high pressure will build across much of the central and
eastern CONUS. This will result in minimal thunderstorm
activity/severe weather potential Thursday and Friday.
By next weekend, return flow will resume across the southern Plains
and thunderstorm chances will increase. Most guidance shows a large
trough across the western CONUS by the end of the weekend and into
early next week, but the orientation, size, and timing of this
trough remains uncertain. Severe weather potential will likely
return at some point given the approaching trough and inland
moisture intrusion, but uncertainties are too high for severe
weather probabilities at this time.
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