RSS Mesoscale Discussions from Storm Prediction Center
WW 28 SEVERE TSTM AR OK 091345Z - 092000Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 28
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
845 AM CDT Mon Mar 9 2026
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of
Central and southern Arkansas
Extreme souheast Oklahoma
* Effective this Monday morning and afternoon from 845 AM until
300 PM CDT.
* Primary threats include...
Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2
inches in diameter possible
Isolated damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible
SUMMARY...Clusters of thunderstorms will spread eastward from
southeast Oklahoma into Arkansas through the morning, with
additional storm development possible into southern Arkansas. Large
hail (1-2 inches in diameter) will be the main threat through the
morning, though upscale storm growth could support the potential for
some wind damage by late morning into early afternoon.
The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 45
statute miles north and south of a line from 30 miles north of De
Queen AR to 45 miles east of Pine Bluff AR. For a complete depiction
of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS
WOU8).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.
&&
AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A
few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector
27030.
...Thompson
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WW 0028 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 28
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..WEINMAN..03/09/26
ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 28
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ARC001-011-013-019-025-027-039-041-043-051-053-057-059-061-069-
073-079-081-083-085-095-097-099-103-105-109-113-117-119-125-127-
133-139-149-091740-
AR
. ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ARKANSAS BRADLEY CALHOUN
CLARK CLEVELAND COLUMBIA
DALLAS DESHA DREW
GARLAND GRANT HEMPSTEAD
HOT SPRING HOWARD JEFFERSON
LAFAYETTE LINCOLN LITTLE RIVER
LOGAN LONOKE MONROE
MONTGOMERY NEVADA OUACHITA
PERRY PIKE POLK
PRAIRIE PULASKI SALINE
SCOTT SEVIER UNION
YELL
OKC089-091740-
OK
. OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
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MD 0179 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 28... FOR PARTS OF SOUTHERN/CENTRAL AR INTO NORTHWEST MS
Mesoscale Discussion 0179
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1203 PM CDT Mon Mar 09 2026
Areas affected...Parts of southern/central AR into northwest MS
Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 28...
Valid 091703Z - 091830Z
The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 28
continues.
SUMMARY...The risk of severe hail and locally damaging gusts
continues across Severe Thunderstorm Watch #28, and will gradually
spread eastward into MS -- where a new watch may eventually be
needed.
DISCUSSION...A cluster of thunderstorms continues tracking eastward
across central AR, with deeper/embedded cores noted along the
southern fringes of this activity. As low-level moisture continues
streaming northward amid filtered diurnal heating, the stronger
cores capable of producing severe hail and locally damaging gusts
may remain focused over the southern periphery of the larger
cluster. With time, these storms will continue spreading eastward
into northern/central MS, with additional warm-advection-driven
development also possible. Increasing buoyancy into this corridor
and around 40 kt of effective shear will promote a continued risk of
large hail and damaging gusts. While timing is uncertain, a
downstream watch may eventually be needed.
..Weinman.. 03/09/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...MEG...JAN...LZK...SHV...
LAT...LON 34669373 35029346 35139268 35219162 35119106 34769006
34428972 33948976 33409013 33209064 33229113 33729312
33969360 34279383 34669373
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN
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SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0734 AM CDT Mon Mar 09 2026
Valid 091300Z - 101200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE ARKLATEX
AND MID-SOUTH INTO THE SOUTHEAST...
...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are possible from the Arklatex and Mid-South
through the Southeast.
...Synopsis...
Early-morning satellite imagery shows a low-amplitude shortwave
trough moving through the TX Panhandle, embedded within the westerly
flow aloft well downstream from an upper low off the Baja California
Coast. This shortwave trough is forecast to progress eastward
throughout the day, reaching the Mid-South by this evening and the
southern Appalachians by early tomorrow. Enhanced mid-level flow
(i.e. 500 mb winds around 50 kt) will accompany this wave, spreading
eastward in tandem with the progression of the wave.
Recent surface analysis shows a relatively moist airmass already in
place from the southern Plains through much of the Southeast. Mid
60s dewpoints currently extend from the TX Coastal Plain through
east TX and over much of LA. This moist airmass is expected to
advect quickly northward/northeastward throughout the day, largely
in response to strengthening low to mid-level flow downstream of the
increasing westerlies across the Plains. Ascent attendant to the
embedded shortwave coupled with the increasing moisture and buoyancy
will likely result in thunderstorm development from the Arklatex and
Mid-South through much the Southeast.
...Arklatex/Mid-South through the Southeast...
A diffuse stationary front currently extends from east-central OK
into northern AL before shifting more northeastward across eastern
TN. Modest warm-air advection is ongoing throughout the western
portion of this boundary, supported by the increasing low to
mid-level flow just ahead of the shortwave trough mentioned in the
synopsis. Isolated thunderstorms have already developed across
southeast OK, and this is likely the beginning of a thunderstorm
cluster that is expected to develop from the Arklatex into the
Mid-South vicinity this morning. Steep mid-level lapse rates and
moderate vertical shear suggest some hail is possible with this
early activity. Recently issued MCD #0177 provides additional
information for this early morning activity.
Most of the guidance suggests that the resulting thunderstorm
cluster becomes increasingly organized with time, growing upscale
into an MCS before then progressing across northern MS and northern
AL. The preceding airmass should be moderately moist and buoyant,
with dewpoints likely in the mid 60s and MLCAPE around 1000 to 1500
J/kg. Moderate vertical shear should be in place as well, with the
resulting conditions supportive of MCS maintenance through the
afternoon. The same conditions will support robust updrafts capable
of large hail and damaging gusts. Additional, more cellular activity
is possible in the wake of the main MCS, with conditions remaining
favorable for hail. Overall tornado potential appears to be limited
by the likely linear mode as well as the relatively weak low-level
flow. Even so, the modest low-level curvature expected supports a
low-probability tornado threat.
...Southern AZ...
A strong upper low is forecast to advance toward the northern Baja
Peninsula by 10/00z before shifting into northwest Mexico by the end
of the period. Steep lapse rates are forecast across southern AZ
within a favorable zone for large-scale ascent. Thermodynamic
profiles suggest scattered convection will develop and spread north
across this region. Forecast soundings show limited buoyancy,
suggesting this activity should struggle to attain severe levels.
Even so, small hail and gusty winds could accompany the strongest,
most persistent updrafts.
..Mosier/Dean.. 03/09/2026
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SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1130 AM CDT Mon Mar 09 2026
Valid 091630Z - 101200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING FROM ARKANSAS TO NORTHWEST GEORGIA...
...SUMMARY...
Large hail, damaging winds and a couple of tornadoes are possible
this afternoon/evening from the Mid-South into northwest Georgia.
...AR to north GA this afternoon/evening...
A weak mid-upper speed max is cresting the larger-scale ridge and
will move from AR to the TN Valley this afternoon/evening.
Associated/ongoing convection across AR will likely persist through
the afternoon with some tendency for upscale growth, while spreading
eastward along the northern gradient of boundary-layer dewpoints in
the low-mid 60s. Surface heating in cloud breaks, beneath the
eastern extent of 7-8 C/km midlevel lapse rates, will contribute to
moderate buoyancy (MLCAPE of 1000-1500 J/kg) along this corridor
with minimal convective inhibition.
Deep-layer vertical shear will be sufficient for a somewhat
organized/bowing storm cluster to evolve from the ongoing AR storms
as they spread across the TN Valley this afternoon, potentially
reaching northwest GA by late evening. The initial storms in the
cluster will pose a threat for large hail (1-2"diameter), with some
increase in the threat for wind damage from northern MS across
northern AL/northwest GA. More discrete storms will be possible
immediately south of the MCS path this afternoon/evening as a
maritime tropical air mass (68-72 F dewpoints) spreads inland. Wind
profiles will support supercells capable of producing large hail
(some could exceed 2 inches in diameter). A modest increase in
low-level shear this afternoon, combined with rich low-level
moisture and the possibility of lingering convective outflow from
the ongoing storms in AR will also support the potential for a
couple of tornadoes.
Isolated thunderstorm development may also occur farther southwest
along the marine warm front into southeast TX, where there is a
conditional threat for large hail.
...Southern AZ this afternoon/evening...
High-based, low-topped convection is expected in the band of ascent
immediately north-northeast of the closed low near northern Baja.
Low-level moisture will be somewhat limited, but steep low-midlevel
lapse rates and substantial south-southeasterly deep-layer shear
will support a few storms/clusters capable of marginally severe hail
and gusts approaching 60 mph.
..Thompson/Chalmers.. 03/09/2026
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SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1115 AM CDT Mon Mar 09 2026
Valid 091700Z - 101200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL HIGH
PLAINS...
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH
PLAINS...
Satellite imagery and surface observations show areas of low level
clouds and fog adjacent to the Elevated area over the central High
Plains this morning. However, these clouds are already beginning to
clear as daytime heating continues across the region. As mixing
increases, clearing any remaining clouds and increasing surface
winds, all areas remain on track to meet thresholds later today.
Thus, only minor tweaks were made to the outlook areas to reflect
the latest trends in forecast guidance placement of the
aforementioned surface features. While RH conditions look to be more
marginal across the central High Plains outlook area, strong
westerly winds are still anticipated over this region this afternoon
with plenty of solar radiation and above normal temperatures.
..Stearns/Nauslar.. 03/09/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0216 AM CDT Mon Mar 09 2026/
...Synopsis...
Split mid-level flow will continue over the US today as an upper low
moves into the Southwest and a second upper trough crosses the
northern Rockies. Surface cyclogenesis across the High Plains will
support another day of diurnally-enhanced westerly downslope flow
over regions with receptive fuels. Elevated to critical fire-weather
conditions are probable.
...Central High Plains...
Ahead of the northern upper trough, initial cyclogenesis should
continue as a trailing lee trough deepens over the High Plains.
Westerly low-level winds are expected to increase near the surface
low, and will peak during the late afternoon hours. Sustained winds
of 15-25 mph with RH minimums falling to near 20% are expected.
Despite some recent precipitation, fine fuels are receptive after
multiple days of persistent downslope winds, supporting widespread
elevated and fire-weather conditions this afternoon across portions
of eastern WY into western and central NE. Fire-weather conditions
will end overnight as a cold front associated with the departing
surface low moves southward, ushering in cooler air over the central
Plains.
...Southern High Plains...
Lee troughing south of the deepening surface low will support 15-25
mph westerly winds across northeast NM into the OK/TX Panhandles
this afternoon. Dry air advecting and downsloping into the region
today will promote RH minimums in the single digits to low teens. A
swath of critical fire weather conditions appears likely from
northeast NM into the TX Panhandle under a belt of stronger flow
aloft. Despite precipitation in the last several days, continued
drying and downslope winds will support drying of fine fuels and
elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions into parts of
western OK.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
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