RSS Mesoscale Discussions from Storm Prediction Center
WW 51 SEVERE TSTM NC SC CW 121430Z - 122100Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 51
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1030 AM EDT Thu Mar 12 2026
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of
Southern and Eastern North Carolina
Eastern South Carolina
Coastal Waters
* Effective this Thursday morning and afternoon from 1030 AM
until 500 PM EDT.
* Primary threats include...
Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible
A tornado or two possible
SUMMARY...A line of low-topped thunderstorms should continue to pose
a threat for mainly scattered damaging winds as it moves quickly
east-northeastward this morning into the afternoon. A brief embedded
tornado or two may also occur.
The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 55
statute miles north and south of a line from 10 miles northwest of
Florence SC to 80 miles east of New Bern NC. For a complete
depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update
(WOUS64 KWNS WOU1).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.
&&
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 50...
AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
0.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A
few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 400. Mean storm motion vector
25040.
...Gleason
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WW 0051 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 51
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 W CRE TO
25 SW FAY TO 35 NNE FAY.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0233.
..GRAMS..03/12/26
ATTN...WFO...RAH...MHX...ILM...
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 51
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
NCC013-017-019-031-047-049-051-055-061-079-095-101-103-107-129-
133-137-141-147-155-163-191-195-121740-
NC
. NORTH CAROLINA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BEAUFORT BLADEN BRUNSWICK
CARTERET COLUMBUS CRAVEN
CUMBERLAND DARE DUPLIN
GREENE HYDE JOHNSTON
JONES LENOIR NEW HANOVER
ONSLOW PAMLICO PENDER
PITT ROBESON SAMPSON
WAYNE WILSON
SCC051-121740-
SC
. SOUTH CAROLINA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
HORRY
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WW 0050 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 50
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 E OGB TO
40 NW FLO.
WW 50 WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 121700Z.
..GRAMS..03/12/26
ATTN...WFO...JAX...CHS...CAE...GSP...
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 50
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
SCC015-025-027-061-121700-
SC
. SOUTH CAROLINA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BERKELEY CHESTERFIELD CLARENDON
LEE
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
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MD 0233 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 51... FOR SOUTHERN/EASTERN NC
Mesoscale Discussion 0233
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1132 AM CDT Thu Mar 12 2026
Areas affected...southern/eastern NC
Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 51...
Valid 121632Z - 121830Z
The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 51
continues.
SUMMARY...Threat for sporadic strong to locally severe gusts, with
low-probability brief tornado potential, should persist into
mid-afternoon as lower-topped storms shift east-northeast across
southern/eastern North Carolina.
DISCUSSION...Lower-topped convection is ongoing from far eastern SC
through the Raleigh metro area. Northern activity will continue to
be undercut by the surface cold front pushing southeast from the
Piedmont to Coastal Plain. More persistent strong to locally severe
gust potential should occur with the southern portion near the NC/SC
coastal border area. Favorably timed thinning of downstream cloud
coverage will aid in boosting boundary-layer instability/depth as
temperatures further warm from 75-80 F, outside of the immediate
coast. With veered and nearly unidirectional southwesterly wind
profiles curtailing hodograph curvature, damaging winds will likely
remain the primary hazard across southern NC through the Pamlico
Sound vicinity.
..Grams.. 03/12/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH...ILM...
LAT...LON 34177920 34737922 35077884 35657827 35907779 35917680
35677620 35187616 34947631 34787652 34417740 33797807
33597890 33607928 34177920
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
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SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0732 AM CDT Thu Mar 12 2026
Valid 121300Z - 131200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHEAST
GEORGIA AND CENTRAL/SOUTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may produce damaging winds
across parts of the Southeast this morning into the early afternoon.
A tornado can not be ruled out early with this activity. Strong wind
gusts are possible across the northern Plains this afternoon as
well.
...Southeast into the Carolinas...
Early-morning satellite imagery shows phased shortwave troughs
within the broad upper troughing across the eastern CONUS, with the
southern shortwave progressing through the Southeast and the
northern shortwave moving into the Middle OH Valley. A convective
line, aided by ascent attendant to the southern shortwave, continues
to progress eastward/northeastward across GA and the FL Panhandle. A
warm, moist, and modestly buoyant environment precedes this line,
with temperatures in the upper 60s to low 70s and dewpoints ranging
from the low 60s across the Carolinas to the low 70s across northern
FL. Expectation is for this line to persist as it continues
eastward/northeastward, with perhaps some slowing of the southern
portion of the line as it becomes displaced south of the better
forcing for ascent. Central portion of this line nearest the
strongest forcing will likely have the deepest updrafts for the next
several hours before progressing northeastward of the better
moisture and buoyancy as it moves across NC. Robust low to mid-level
flow will remain in place, supporting the potential for damaging
gusts and brief line-embedded tornadoes through the afternoon.
...Northern Plains...
Intense mid-level flow (i.e. 100-120 kt at 500 mb) will spread
southeastward across the northern Plains this afternoon, in tandem
with a low-amplitude shortwave trough progressing through the
region. Forecast soundings suggest weak buoyancy will evolve south
of the front across the northern Plains such that shallow convection
is expected to develop, along with the threat of some lightning.
This convection could augment the already strong
westerly/northwesterly flow, resulting in strong surface wind gusts.
Significant wind gusts (65+ kt) are possible.
..Mosier/Dean.. 03/12/2026
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SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1044 AM CDT Thu Mar 12 2026
Valid 121630Z - 131200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
EASTERN SOUTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHERN/EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA...
...SUMMARY...
Strong to severe thunderstorms may produce occasional damaging winds
across parts of the eastern Carolinas through this afternoon. A
brief tornado or two could also occur with this activity. Strong
convective wind gusts are possible across the northern Plains this
afternoon as well.
...Carolinas and North Florida...
A broken line of low-topped thunderstorms will continue to move
quickly northeastward this afternoon across parts of the Carolinas
in tandem with a mid-level shortwave trough across the Southeast.
Strong low to mid-level southwesterly flow should promote some
threat for occasional severe/damaging winds with this line as
filtered daytime heating fosters modest steepening of low-level
lapse rates and weak destabilization. Even so, poor mid-level lapse
rates will tend to limit the development of any more than modest
instability overall. While low-level winds have generally veered to
southwesterly per recent VWPs from LTX/MHX, there is still
sufficient speed shear in the 0-1 km layer to support embedded
circulations within the line, and perhaps a brief tornado or two.
The Slight Risk has been adjusted for latest observational and
guidance trends to reflect the mainly damaging wind threat with the
line this afternoon, before it moves offshore into the western
Atlantic. A small Marginal Risk area has also been maintained for
parts of north FL where an isolated damaging wind threat should
exist in the short term with the far southern portion of the line.
...Northern Plains...
Very strong mid-level winds (around 100-120 kt at 500 mb) will
spread southeastward across the northern Plains this afternoon in
tandem with a low-amplitude mid-level shortwave trough moving over
the northern Plains. Latest NAM/RAP forecast soundings suggest very
weak instability may develop south of a front across the northern
Plains, such that shallow convection may develop with some threat of
lightning. This convection could augment the already strong
west-northwesterly low/mid-level flow, resulting in strong surface
wind gusts. Isolated significant wind gusts (65+ kt) could occur
with any sustained convection that develops, but confidence in this
scenario remains low.
..Gleason/Chalmers.. 03/12/2026
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SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1142 AM CDT Thu Mar 12 2026
Valid 121700Z - 131200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS...
Satellite imagery shows an area of high level clouds blanketing much
of the northern and portions of the central High Plains. These high
level clouds are expected to continue streaming southeast over
northern and western portions of the Day 1/Thursday Fire Weather
Outlook area. Surface observations do show westerly winds beginning
to increase across these areas on the lee side of the Front Range,
with gusts exceeding 70 mph in some locations. Meanwhile, across
portions of Kansas and the Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles, southwest
winds are already sustained at 15-25 mph this morning.
The latest forecast guidance suggests that a cold front will push
south and eastward through the northern Plains as the upper level
trough continues to progress eastward. While the exact position of
the frontal boundary is somewhat in flux, it is anticipated to move
through South Dakota during the early afternoon and approach Kansas
about midnight before surging across the southern Plains before
sunrise on Day 2/Friday as it loses strength. Once the front begins
to outpace the mid-level jet max over south-central South Dakota,
precipitation coverage will diminish and the dry airmass will move
into place. Very strong west/northwest winds sustained at 30-40 mph
and gusting to near 60 mph will follow the front across the northern
Plains. Thus, the Elevated area was extended slightly to the north
and east over portions of South Dakota, extreme western Iowa and
northern Kansas.
Critical conditions are likely to persist at least an hour or two
past sunset over portions of southern Nebraska/northern Kansas and
east-central New Mexico, bringing the duration to over 6 hours in
these localized areas. Extreme south Texas will remain just below
elevated thresholds of wind/RH as the timing of the strongest winds
and driest air will remain slightly out of sync in that area.
..Stearns/Nauslar.. 03/12/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0127 AM CDT Thu Mar 12 2026/
...Synopsis...
Critical fire-weather conditions are forecast today as a strong and
deepening surface cyclone associated with an intense 100+ kt
mid-level jet moves from the Northern Great Plains into the upper
Midwest, with an expansive wind field bringing dry and breezy
conditions to the Central and Southern Great Plains.
...Central and Southern Great Plains...
Strong west-northwesterly flow aloft and deep boundary layer mixing
will result in dry and windy conditions across much of the Central
and Southern Great Plains. With the winds having a strong downslope
component, widespread relative humidity of 10-15% will overlap with
winds of 25-35 MPH. The strongest winds will occur across northern
portions of the outlook area (closer to the surface low), primarily
across Wyoming and Nebraska reaching 35-40 MPH. However, these
stronger winds will occur with relatively higher relative humidity
(25-35%) and fuels that have received some recent wetting rainfall.
In the Southern Plains, winds will be generally weaker around 25 MPH
but with significantly drier surface conditions at around 10%
relative humidity and critically dry fuels.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
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