RSS Mesoscale Discussions from Storm Prediction Center
No watches are valid as of Sat May 2 07:58:01 UTC 2026.
No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Sat May 2 07:58:01 UTC 2026.
SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1227 AM CDT Sat May 02 2026
Valid 021200Z - 031200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SOUTHERN
GEORGIA...EASTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE INTO NORTH AND CENTRAL
FLORIDA...
...SUMMARY...
Strong to severe storms are possible across southern Georgia into
northern/central Florida this morning into the early evening.
...Synopsis...
An upper-level trough will bring enhanced west-southwesterly flow
aloft across the southeast into the Gulf Coast Saturday. A cold
front extending across the northern Florida Peninsula into the Gulf
will shift south and east through the afternoon, as a focus of
severe thunderstorm development. Thunderstorm activity is expected
at the beginning of the period, some of which perhaps may be strong.
...Southern Georgia into central Florida...
Thunderstorm activity will likely be ongoing at the start of the
period early Saturday morning across the Gulf into the Florida
Panhandle and southern Georgia. A few stronger transient supercells
will be possible, mainly offshore south of the Florida coast where
better instability will overlap increasing upper-level flow.
Thunderstorm activity will increase in coverage inland and across
southern Georgia into the eastern Florida Panhandle and northern
Florida Peninsula through the morning into the afternoon. Moderately
unstable and strongly sheared profiles across the region will
support potential for damaging winds and large hail, especially with
embedded supercells. Given storm motions parallel to the southwest
to northeast oriented cold front, supercells will likely struggle to
remain discrete. As the low-level jet becomes displaced to the north
by late morning into the afternoon, mode may becoming increasingly
more clustered/linear. This may reduce the hail potential through
time.
Before the low-level jet shifts northward, risk for a tornado will
be possible across the northern peninsula near the front. There is a
narrow zone in north Florida where marginally stronger low-level
shear and boundary-layer destabilization may favorably align
mid/late morning for a higher tornado risk. Overall, confidence is
low in favorable overlap, with potential largely occurring outside
of peak daytime heating and with the low-level jet beginning to
shift northward. As mentioned, there is also concern about storm
motions and lack of more discrete supercells. This leads to too much
uncertainty in introducing higher tornado probabilities at this
time.
A Slight Risk was maintained across southern Georgia into the
eastern Florida Panhandle and northern/central Florida for the main
threats of damaging wind and large hail.
..Thornton/Lyons.. 05/02/2026
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SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1201 AM CDT Sat May 02 2026
Valid 031200Z - 041200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF MISSOURI AND ILLINOIS...
...SUMMARY...
A few strong thunderstorms are possible across parts of
northern/central Missouri and central Illinois on Sunday.
...Lower MO/Mid-MS Valleys...
Moderate deep-layer northwesterly flow will overspread the region as
a series of shortwave impulses migrate through an upper trough
oriented over the Midwest and eastern U.S. Temperatures aloft will
be quite cold (around -20 C at 500 mb), resulting in steep midlevel
lapse rates across the Mid-MS Valley region. At the surface,
boundary layer moisture will remain limited in the wake of a prior
cold frontal passage, resulting in Gulf moisture remaining well
offshore. Most guidance suggests dewpoints in the 50s are possible
along a corridor ahead of a weak surface front. While low-level
moisture will be limited, steep midlevel lapse rates will foster
1000-2000 J/kg MLCAPE. Model guidance remains unclear with regard to
convective initiation, but heating into the 70s will allow for an
uncapped environment. While deep-layer flow will mostly remain
unidirectional, speed shear will support supercell wind profiles
with 35+ effective shear magnitudes and elongated hodographs.
While overall storm coverage may remain low, and the risk is
conditional, if storms develop, isolated large hail and locally
strong gusts will be possible during the afternoon and evening.
..Leitman.. 05/02/2026
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SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0126 AM CDT Sat May 02 2026
Valid 041200Z - 051200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE MIDWEST...
...SUMMARY...
Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of the
Midwest late Monday afternoon into Monday night.
...Eastern KS to OH...
A deepening upper trough will develop southward into the Upper
Midwest on Monday/Monday night. Stronger height falls will remain
confined to the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes vicinity, with more modest
height falls into the Mid-MS Valley near/after 00z. At the surface,
low pressure is forecast to move across Ontario and Quebec, while a
trailing cold front develops southward across the Upper MS Valley
during the day, and becomes oriented from southern Lower MI to
eastern KS by early Tuesday. Gulf moisture return will remain
limited, with generally 50s to near 60 F dewpoints expected in a
narrow corridor ahead of the cold front. Cool temperatures aloft
will support steep lapse rates across the region and MLCAPE around
1000-1500 J/kg is forecast during the afternoon into the nighttime
hours from KS into portions of the Mid-MS Valley and eastward into
IN/OH/extreme southern Lower MI.
Capping and weak forcing for ascent may limit thunderstorm
development across the warm sector through peak heating. However, as
a southwesterly low-level jet increases around/after 00z, modest
height falls overspread the region, and the surface cold front
develops southward toward the corridor of modest boundary layer
moisture, isolated to scattered thunderstorms may initiate.
Effective shear around 35+ kt will aid in organized storm
structures, and isolated large hail and locally strong gusts are
possible.
..Leitman.. 05/02/2026
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Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0255 AM CDT Sat May 02 2026
Valid 051200Z - 101200Z
...DISCUSSION...
...Days 4-5/Tue-Wed -- Southeast OK/ArkLaTex to Lower MS/TN
Valleys...
Southwesterly deep-layer flow will increase from the southern
Rockies to the Mid-South on Day 4/Tuesday as a southern stream
shortwave trough over the Southwest merges with an upper trough over
the Plains/Upper Midwest. At the surface, low pressure will develop
over the southern Plains and slowly progress east in AR as a cold
front develops southeast across OK/AR and the Lower OH Valley. Ahead
of the front, rich Gulf moisture will return northward, and 60s to
near 70 F dewpoints are forecast by Tuesday afternoon/evening across
southeast OK and the ArkLaTex. Timing of thunderstorm development is
a bit uncertain as shortwave ridging may overspread the southern
Plains vicinity through afternoon. However, forcing for ascent
should increase with the approach of the surface front and as a
low-level jet increasing Tuesday evening. Moderate instability and
strong vertical shear should support severe thunderstorm activity
near the cold front from late afternoon into Tuesday night.
On Day 5/Wednesday, the Plains upper trough will migrate east,
extending from the Upper Great Lakes to the Lower MS Valley by early
Thursday. The surface cold front will extend from the OH Valley into
north/central TX Wednesday morning and slowly progress southeast
through the period. Gulf moisture will return north and east across
the southern U.S. ahead of the front. While deep-layer flow will
largely be parallel to the surface front, moist and unstable airmass
ahead of the front should support some risk for severe
thunderstorms.
...Days 6-8/Thu-Sat...
A deepening surface low will develop northward across the
Mid-Atlantic and Northeast on Thursday as a surface cold front
continues to shift east across much of the eastern U.S. While a
moist airmass will be in place across parts of the Southeast to the
Mid-Atlantic, it is uncertain how much destabilization will occur
due to possibly widespread thunderstorm activity and cloud cover
(particularly from the Mid-Atlantic northward). Large-scale ascent
will become increasingly displaced to the north across the
Southeast, and convection may tend to be anafrontal. Trends will be
monitored and severe probabilities could become necessary for parts
of the eastern U.S. on Thursday in later outlooks.
Severe potential will be limited on Friday as the prior cold frontal
passages clears out Gulf moisture and surface high pressure envelops
much of the eastern half of the U.S. Weak upper troughing could
overspread the Rockies and High Plains by the end of the period,
allowing for Gulf moisture return across the Plains and an increase
in thunderstorm potential.
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SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0147 AM CDT Sat May 02 2026
Valid 021200Z - 031200Z
...Synopsis...
Broad mid-level troughing is forecast to intensify over the eastern
US Saturday as a weaker perturbation merges with it across the
northern Gulf Coast. As the upper trough deepens, the associated
southwesterly flow aloft will also strengthen. This will drive a
cold front into the Gulf, though gusty winds and dry conditions are
expected ahead of it over parts of FL. To the west, high pressure
will remain over the Great Basin and northwesterly flow aloft
persists over the central US.
...FL...
Widespread dry and breezy conditions are expected again today ahead
of the cold front moving across the FL Peninsula. Strong westerly
flow at the base of the deepening eastern US trough will overspread
the frontal zone this morning and afternoon, supporting gusty
westerly winds across parts of southern and central FL. Mid and
upper-level cloud cover are likely to accompany the front, though
breaks (becoming more frequent with southward extent) should support
some diurnal mixing. With westerly flow aloft increasing, surface
gusts of 10-20 mph are possible. This should support gusty winds
with RH below 40% for much of the region where rainfall has been
limited. Elevated fire-weather conditions are likely.
A couple hours of locally critical conditions are possible through
the afternoon where occasional gusts of 15-20 mph could overlap with
RH below 35%. This appears most likely farther south and east where
humidity is expected to be lower and less likely to be impacted by
clouds. However, less upper-level support for strong mixing and
gusts is expected here. This suggests that while critical conditions
are possible, they are unlikely to be widespread or of long
duration.
Fire-weather concerns should end this evening as the front continues
to move southward. Widespread shower and thunderstorm activity
should accompany the frontal passage, with cooler conditions
developing behind the front.
...Northern Rockies/High Plains...
Behind the upper trough moving out of the Great lakes, continued
northwesterly flow aloft is expected over the Plains. An embedded
perturbation will deepen a weak surface low tracking from southern
Canada into the eastern Dakotas. Trailing the low, a cold front will
move southward, supporting gusty winds over parts of MT/WY and the
western Dakotas. While RH will be variable and somewhat marginal
given high cloud cover and the cooler air mass behind the front,
most guidance shows diurnal minimums below 30%. The strong northerly
winds of 15-25 mph (gusts up to 30 mph) are likely for several hours
following the frontal passage, supportive of Elevated fire weather
conditions given dry fuels.
..Lyons.. 05/02/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
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SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0150 AM CDT Sat May 02 2026
Valid 031200Z - 041200Z
...Synopsis...
Split mid-level flow will develop over the US Sunday as an upper
trough exits the east coast and ridging remains in place across the
Great Basin. The northern branch of the flow aloft will remain
northwesterly over the Plains while a cutoff low is absorbed by the
strengthening sub tropical jet. The result will be unseasonably dry
conditions over much of the central CONUS where elevated
fire-weather conditions are possible across the northern Plains.
...Northern Plains...
An upper-level shortwave trough is forecast to deepen as it moves
out of southern Canada into the northern US Sunday. At the surface,
an associated low will intensify as it traverses south-central
Canada. A strengthening surface pressure gradient should tighten
across much of the northern Plains, promoting dry and breezy
conditions ahead of a southward progressing cold front tied to the
low. Gusty winds of 20-30 mph are expected, along with RH below 30%.
Widespread dry and breezy conditions over a dry fuelscape should
promote elevated fire-weather potential.
...Southern High Plains...
Dry and breezy southerly flow is expected over parts of western OK
and the TX Panhandles Sunday beneath a northwesterly flow shortwave
trough. South/southwest gusts of 20-25 mph are possible during the
afternoon. With few clouds, afternoon RH values are expected to
decrease to below 20% near the lee trough. This could support some
localized fire-weather concerns. However, seasonably cooler
temperatures and rainfall/green up have tempered fuels such that
widespread fire-weather concerns are not expected.
..Lyons.. 05/02/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
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