RSS Mesoscale Discussions from Storm Prediction Center
No watches are valid as of Sat Dec 13 21:27:01 UTC 2025.
No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Sat Dec 13 21:27:01 UTC 2025.
SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0148 PM CST Sat Dec 13 2025
Valid 132000Z - 141200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected today or tonight.
...20z Update...
The previous forecast remains on track with only minor adjustments
may to the thunder line along the southern TX Gulf Coast where a
cold pool associated with offshore convection is spreading onshore.
Thunderstorm coverage is still expected to increase later this
afternoon/evening across southeast TX and southern LA, but the
potential for severe thunderstorms remains limited.
..Moore.. 12/13/2025
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1004 AM CST Sat Dec 13 2025/
...Southeast TX/Southwest LA...
Morning satellite loops confirm northward transport of low-level
moisture into parts of the southern Plains and lower MS Valley.
This trend will continue this afternoon and evening as a shallow
surface cold front sags southward through the region. Model
guidance suggests that weak but sufficient instability will develop
after dark from southeast TX into southwest LA to result in a few
pre-frontal thunderstorms. Shear is weak, and limited CAPE will
preclude organized severe storms. However, small hail is possible
in the strongest cores tonight.
...FL...
A low-latitude disturbance crossing the Gulf and a northward
moisture flux ahead of it will contribute to thunderstorm potential
across the Florida Keys/Florida Straits today, and also across the
southern Florida Peninsula tonight. Severe thunderstorms are
unlikely with these scenarios.
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SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1111 AM CST Sat Dec 13 2025
Valid 141200Z - 151200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
A few storms are possible across South Florida and the Florida Keys,
as well as the western Gulf Coast tomorrow (Sunday).
...Synopsis...
A pronounced mid-level trough will eject into the Atlantic as
another upper trough approaches the Pacific Northwest tomorrow
(Sunday). Surface high pressure and an associated statically stable
airmass will overspread much of the CONUS east of the Rockies,
limiting thunderstorm development over most locales. The best chance
for any isolated thunderstorm development will be along a surface
cold front. At the start of the period (12Z Sunday), a few
thunderstorms may develop along the cold front across the western
Gulf Coast as the front encounters low-level moisture and moves
offshore. Later in the day, the cold front will encounter a
low-level moisture-driven, marginally unstable airmass across the
southern FL Peninsula/FL Keys, where isolated thunderstorms will
also be possible.
Across the Pacific Northwest, cooler temperatures aloft (and
accompanying scant buoyancy) will impinge on the shoreline toward
the end of the period (06-12Z Monday morning). While a couple of
lightning flashes may occur during this time frame, the current
thinking is that the overall coverage of lightning will likely be
too sparse to warrant thunder probabilities at this time.
..Squitieri.. 12/13/2025
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SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0119 PM CST Sat Dec 13 2025
Valid 151200Z - 161200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are not expected on Monday.
...Synopsis...
Upper ridging will build over much of the central and eastern CONUS
as a mid-level trough de-amplifies over the Pacific Northwest on
Monday. Surface high pressure will sweep across much of the southern
and eastern CONUS with a statically stable airmass, while a cold
and/or dry surface airmass encompasses much of the Plains into the
Interior West. As a result, thunderstorm development should be
negligible over most of the CONUS. The one exception may be over
portions of the Pacific Northwest Coastline. Here, the de-amplifying
ridge will aid in the advection of colder temperatures atop a marine
boundary layer. Given at least modest forcing for ascent and scant
buoyancy, a few lightning flashes may occur.
..Squitieri.. 12/13/2025
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SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1255 PM CST Sat Dec 13 2025
Valid 141200Z - 151200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
Tomorrow's (Sunday) fire weather forecast remains on-track. Please
see the previous discussion below for more information.
..Elliott.. 12/13/2025
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1125 PM CST Fri Dec 12 2025/
...Synopsis...
The upper trough will move through the Mid-Atlantic/Northeast on
Sunday into Monday morning. The upper ridge in the West will expand
into the Plains. A surface high pressure system will move
southeastward and a cold front will move through much of the Gulf.
Locally dry and windy conditions are possible in eastern Wyoming.
Poor fuel receptiveness will preclude much in the way of fire
weather concerns. Though temperatures will be cool/cold in the
Southeast, gusty northerly winds and modest RH reductions will be
possible. Recent precipitation in the past week has left fuel
receptiveness marginal at best. This, along with the marginal
temperatures, should preclude fire weather concerns.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
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SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0321 PM CST Sat Dec 13 2025
Valid 151200Z - 211200Z
Mid/upper-level ridging is forecast to weaken Day 3/Monday over the
Southwest with a shift toward a zonal flow pattern across much of
the CONUS Day 4/Tuesday through the end of next week. This
upper-level regime will support relatively cool conditions with
periodic precipitation chances from the Pacific Northwest into the
northern Plains, Midwest, and Northeast. Meanwhile, dry conditions
are expected across much of the southern Plains and the Southwest
with little-to-no precipitation and above normal surface
temperatures.
...Central/Southern Plains...
A gradual increase in fire weather conditions is expected this week
across portions of the central/southern Plains as persistent dry and
relatively warm conditions remain in place. While fuels are only
marginally receptive at this time across these areas, an increase in
fuel readiness is expected through this week amidst the dry/warm
conditions.
Periodic lee cyclone strengthening this week should foster at least
locally Elevated fire weather conditions most days amidst dry/breezy
winds. Ensemble guidance continues to suggest the greatest potential
for widespread Elevated (and potentially Critical) conditions is Day
5/Wednesday and/or Day 6/Thursday as a strong lee cyclone develops
over the northern Plains. While fire weather highlights may be
needed in a future outlook, at this time the probability for
Critical conditions at any location remains less than 40% due to
lingering run-to-run model variability.
..Elliott.. 12/13/2025
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
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