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17.5°F |
| Current conditions from King Hill Updated every 5 minutes |
| Thursday November 20, 2025 | |||||||
SPC - No watches are valid as of Thu Nov 20 06:03:02 UTC 2025No watches are valid as of Thu Nov 20 06:03:02 UTC 2025. SPC MD 2213MD 2213 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR SOUTHEAST KANSAS INTO NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA...SOUTHWEST MISSOURI AND FAR NORTHWEST ARKANSAS
Mesoscale Discussion 2213
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1151 PM CST Wed Nov 19 2025
Areas affected...Southeast Kansas into northeast
Oklahoma...southwest Missouri and far northwest Arkansas
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 200551Z - 200745Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent
SUMMARY...Thunderstorms are expected to increase in coverage over
the next several hours across northeast Oklahoma, southeast Kansas
and into southwest Missouri and northwest Arkansas. While buoyancy
is fairly limited, strong shear may compensate and support a few
strong/severe storms.
DISCUSSION...Latest regional radar mosaics show an uptick in
convection across the KS/OK/MO/AR region over the past hour. This
comes as isentropic ascent within a diffuse warm frontal zone
increases in tandem with a strengthening of 925-850 mb winds noted
in upstream VWPs. The warming/moistening in this layer is also
supporting a northward expansion of MUCAPE, and while buoyancy
profiles remain fairly marginal per recent forecast soundings, this
environment has been sufficient for deep convection. Regional VWPs
and mesoanalyses continue to show 40-50 knot deep-layer wind shear
across the region with favorable hodographs for splitting
supercells. The expectation is for transient supercells to emerge
and periodically pose a threat for large hail (most likely between 1
to 1.75 inches in diameter). Storm interactions and motions along
the frontal zone should promote upscale growth into clusters, which
should limit the coverage/longevity of the hail threat. As such,
watch issuance is not expected.
..Moore/Smith.. 11/20/2025
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...LZK...SGF...EAX...TSA...TOP...ICT...OUN...
LAT...LON 36239673 36639709 36989730 37369738 37719729 38029696
38239644 38319501 38149382 37659322 37219307 36769306
36489320 36249358 36019425 35939549 36019622 36239673
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN
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SPC MD 2212MD 2212 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR A SMALL PART OF WEST-CENTRAL TEXAS
Mesoscale Discussion 2212
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0955 PM CST Wed Nov 19 2025
Areas affected...a small part of west-central Texas
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 200355Z - 200630Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent
SUMMARY...A few strong storms are expected through early tonight,
and isolated large hail occur.
DISCUSSION...Moderate southwest flow aloft and subtle height rises
currently exist over the southern Plains, well east of the main
upper trough. While the air mass is moist and unstable, ascent is
currently weak. The 00Z DRT sounding shows PWAT values over 1.70"
along with MLCAPE over 2000 J/kg, and strong upper-level winds.
However, objective analysis indicates the winds around 850 mb are
difluent, and likely resulting in downward motion. Therefore, there
appears to be minimal ascent to support more widespread storms.
However, isolated storms are already present from near the San
Angelo area southward toward the Rio Grande, and some of this
activity may strengthen at times by virtue of the moist air mass and
minimal capping. Conditionally, the environment favors hail within
the strongest cells, and coverage trends will continue to be
monitored.
..Jewell/Smith.. 11/20/2025
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...EWX...SJT...MAF...
LAT...LON 29809960 29180019 28750046 28660078 29000114 29460178
29680182 31200086 31440048 31499973 31299913 30969898
30469913 29809960
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN
Read more
SPC Nov 20, 2025 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective OutlookSPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
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