RSS Mesoscale Discussions from Storm Prediction Center
No watches are valid as of Sun Feb 22 07:59:02 UTC 2026.
No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Sun Feb 22 07:59:02 UTC 2026.
SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1132 PM CST Sat Feb 21 2026
Valid 221200Z - 231200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are possible across portions of the Florida Peninsula
during the day. Lightning may also occur across coastal areas from
North Carolina to southern New England, and over western Washington
State.
...Discussion...
Strong short-wave trough is digging southeast toward the OH Valley
late this evening. This feature will phase with the southern stream
and induce a surface low off the NC coast early in the period.
Intense deepening is expected with this offshore cyclone which will
lift north-northeast during the overnight hours.
Isolated thunderstorms may develop along the trailing cold front as
it surges south across the FL Peninsula during the day, but poor
lapse rates and weak buoyancy suggest the risk for robust convection
is not particularly high.
Intense low-level warm advection will aid the potential for
lightning discharge in midlevel convection along the middle Atlantic
coast and southern New England. Forecast soundings suggest the
majority of this activity will be within heavier snow bands along
the northwest-north side of the cyclone.
Across the Pacific northwest, significant midlevel cooling and
steepening lapse rates are expected along the WA coast by early
afternoon. Weak SBCAPE is expected to develop across this region and
some risk for lightning is possible with convection that develops
within this warm-advection regime.
..Darrow/Halbert.. 02/22/2026
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SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1201 AM CST Sun Feb 22 2026
Valid 231200Z - 241200Z
...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are not expected across the United States on Monday.
... Discussion ...
A strong trough/surface cyclone will depart the East Coast on
Monday, driving a strong surface cold front south of the US
mainland. At the same time, mid-level ridging will overspread much
of the western and central US, sustaining an expansive surface
anticyclone across the central and eastern US. This combination of a
mid-level ridge, a large surface anticyclone, and a cold frontal
intrusion well into the Gulf should preclude thunderstorm
development on Monday.
..Marsh.. 02/22/2026
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SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0157 AM CST Sun Feb 22 2026
Valid 241200Z - 251200Z
...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are not expected across the United States.
... Discussion ...
The upper-air pattern will deamplify somewhat on Tuesday as a
mid-level trough moving onshore in the Pacific Northwest helps break
down the western ridge. The result should be broad northwest flow
across much of the US. At the surface, in response to this northwest
flow, troughing will develop in the lee of nearly the entirety of
the US Rocky Mountains. Southerly winds to the east of this trough
will begin drawing moisture northward into the Southern Plains.
Given the limited moisture across the central and eastern US, and
the saturated, instability deprived forecast soundings associated
with the expected moist, onshore/upslope flow across California,
thunderstorms are currently not anticipated on Tuesday.
..Marsh.. 02/22/2026
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SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0115 AM CST Sun Feb 22 2026
Valid 221200Z - 231200Z
...Synopsis...
In the midst of a dry and breezy post-frontal airmass across much of
the Southeast/Gulf Coast, Elevated to locally Critical fire-weather
conditions are anticipated this afternoon across portions of Texas,
southeastern Louisiana/southern Mississippi, and much of the Florida
peninsula. While the meteorological conditions affect a much larger
area than the present highlights, recent wetting rainfall owing to
the aforementioned front will serve to temper fire-weather concerns
elsewhere.
...Mississippi/Louisiana...
While there is some ensemble spread in the range of expected
relative humidity values across southeastern Louisiana into far
southern Mississippi, meteorological conditions will support
Elevated to locally Critical fire-weather conditions owing to dry
and breezy offshore flow. Fuels in the area are very dry, and there
has been little in the way of recent wetting rainfall. The highest
likelihood for Critical conditions appears to be in far southeastern
Mississippi/Louisiana, where winds could reach 15-20 MPH. However,
uncertainty in the duration and magnitude of those winds precludes
additional highlights at this time.
...Southeast/Florida Peninsula...
Elevated to locally Critical fire-weather concerns are forecast this
afternoon across much of the Florida Peninsula. Though relative
humidity could be as low as 25%, with winds of around 15 MPH out of
the north-northwest, rainfall during the early morning hours should
serve to temper fuels. Given the precipitation and seemingly
localized nature of Critical conditions, additional highlights were
withheld (though considered).
...Far Southern Texas...
Relative humidity as low as 10-15% and winds around 15 MPH will
support Elevated fire-weather concerns across far southern Texas.
There has been little in the way of recent wetting rainfall, with
fuels guidance (ERCs) suggesting fuels are more than receptive to
wildfire ignition.
..Halbert.. 02/22/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
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SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0116 AM CST Sun Feb 22 2026
Valid 231200Z - 241200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN FLORIDA...
...Synopsis...
Critical fire-weather conditions are forecast for much of the
Florida peninsula on Monday owing to a dry and breezy post-frontal
airmass overlapping drought-stricken fuels. Further west, dry and
breezy southerly flow in far eastern New Mexico into the
Texas/Oklahoma panhandles will support Elevated fire-weather
conditions.
...Florida Peninsula/Southern Georgia...
Relative humidity as low as 20%-25% (with poor overnight RH
recovery) and winds of 15-20 MPH out of the northwest will overlap
with drought-stricken fuels across much of the Florida peninsula on
Monday. This will result in widespread Critical fire-weather
conditions, particularly in central/southern Florida.
...Eastern New Mexico/Texas/Oklahoma Panhandles...
Dry and breezy southerly/southwesterly flow will develop across much
of eastern New Mexico into the TX/OK Panhandles on Monday afternoon.
Relative humidity as low as 10-15% and winds of 15-20 MPH are
forecast to overlap with previously cured fuels, supporting at least
Elevated fire-weather concerns.
..Halbert.. 02/22/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
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