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WW 184 TORNADO AR 052315Z - 060500Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Tornado Watch Number 184
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
615 PM CDT Tue May 5 2026
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Tornado Watch for portions of
North Central Arkansas
* Effective this Tuesday night from 615 PM until Midnight CDT.
* Primary threats include...
A few tornadoes likely with a couple intense tornadoes possible
Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2
inches in diameter likely
Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely
SUMMARY...Thunderstorms are expected to intensify along a cold front
and spread eastward across the watch area this evening. A few
supercells are expected, capable of hail, damaging winds, and
perhaps tornadoes.
The tornado watch area is approximately along and 40 statute miles
north and south of a line from 15 miles south southwest of Fort
Smith AR to 30 miles south of Walnut Ridge AR. For a complete
depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update
(WOUS64 KWNS WOU4).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for
tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch
area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for
threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements
and possible warnings.
&&
AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail
surface and aloft to 2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind
gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean
storm motion vector 26030.
...Hart
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WW 0184 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0184 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET
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MD 0648 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR NORTHEAST TEXAS...FAR NORTHWEST LOUISIANA...FAR SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA...SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS
Mesoscale Discussion 0648
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0619 PM CDT Tue May 05 2026
Areas affected...Northeast Texas...Far Northwest Louisiana...Far
Southeast Oklahoma...Southwest Arkansas
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible
Valid 052319Z - 060115Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent
SUMMARY...A severe threat is likely to develop early this evening
across parts of northeast Texas, far southeast Oklahoma and
southwest Arkansas. Large hail, severe wind gusts, and an isolated
tornado threat will be possible. Weather watch will likely be needed
once convective initiation takes place.
DISCUSSION...Surface analysis shows a cold front from southeast
Oklahoma extending southwestward to near the Dallas/Fort Worth Metro
and into north-central Texas. Along and ahead of the front, a field
of cumulus is evident on visible satellite imagery. Low-level
convergence is likely maximized near Fort Worth, where a boundary
from the southeast recently merged with the cold front. Short-term
model forecasts suggest that cells will initiate near the front
early this evening from the Dallas/Fort Worth Metro northeastward
into northeast Texas. Ahead of the front, moderate instability is
analyzed with the RAP showing MLCAPE in the 2000 to 3000 J/kg range.
In addition, the WSR-88D VWP at Fort Worth has 0-6 km shear near 70
knots. The RAP has 700-500 mb lapse rates in the 7.5 to 8 C/km
range. This should support supercells with large hail, and
hailstones greater than 2 inches in diameter will be possible. The
storms may also be associated with severe wind gusts and an isolated
tornado threat.
..Broyles/Hart.. 05/05/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...TSA...FWD...OUN...
LAT...LON 34649389 34349323 33699305 32999320 32579352 32339410
32239532 32329595 32659625 33069639 33599641 34329614
34719544 34649389
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-125 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...2.00-3.50 IN
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SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0246 PM CDT Tue May 05 2026
Valid 052000Z - 061200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS NORTH TEXAS INTO
WESTERN TENNESSEE...
...SUMMARY...
Widely scattered severe storms are possible this afternoon through
this evening from north Texas, much of Arkansas, and into western
Tennessee. Large to very large hail, severe gusts, and a few
tornadoes are possible.
...20z Update...
The previous forecast largely remains on track with only minor
adjustments made. Recent GOES imagery shows gradual clearing across
northern TX into northwest LA and western AR with slow
warming/moistening noted in surface observations. A stable layer
remains evident in visible imagery across western AR, and a recent
18 UTC SHV RAOB sampled a stronger capping inversion at 850 mb
compared to what is depicted by latest high-res guidance. This casts
some uncertainty on convective coverage across southwest AR;
however, trends in time-lagged ensemble guidance and early high-res
WoFS solutions continue to show reasonably high confidence in
thunderstorm development along and north of the I-40 corridor in AR
and downstream into northern MS, middle TN, and northwest AL later
tonight. Although storm mode will likely transition to clusters and
embedded semi-discrete cells after 06 UTC, some severe threat will
likely persist into the early morning hours given adequate buoyancy
and ample deep-layer wind shear. The eastern extent of the 5%
wind/hail contours have been adjusted accordingly.
Elsewhere, the forecast remains on track. See the previous
discussion below and recently issued MCD #646 for additional
details.
..Moore.. 05/05/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1131 AM CDT Tue May 05 2026/
...Northeast TX into the Mid-South...
Radar mosaic shows an MCV moving east across far western KY with a
band of weak thunderstorms extending south and west across western
TN. Convective outflow associated with the showers/thunderstorms
extends from east-west near I-40 across AR into eastern OK where it
intersects a triple point over central OK. A cold front is draped
southwest to northeast along the I-44 corridor from western north TX
northeastward into the Ozarks.
Visible-satellite imagery late this morning shows extensive cloud
cover from northeast TX northeastward into AR and the lower OH
Valley. A plume of richer moisture at the surface is denoted by mid
to upper 60s deg F dewpoints protruding north from east-central TX
into north TX and southeast OK. Further moistening of low levels
via southerly return flow is forecast beneath a capping inversion
around 850 mb sampled by the 12 UTC Forth Worth, TX raob.
Gradual boundary layer heating will result in surface temperatures
warming into the upper 80s over north TX with muted heating farther
northeast over AR where persistent cloud cover will inhibit stronger
heating. Model guidance shows MLCAPE ranging from 500-1500 J/kg
from northeast AR southwestward into southwest AR, and upwards of
3000 J/kg MLCAPE across north TX by mid-late afternoon. Convergence
along the front will be modest and large-scale height rises are
anticipated. However, thinning clouds near the OK/AR border and the
erosion of convective inhibition as convective temperatures are
breached over north TX will result in isolated to scattered storms
developing during 20-23 UTC period. Initial supercell mode is
forecast over north TX with some clustering expected during the
evening. The tornado risk over north TX will likely be limited by
relatively weak low-level shear but strong mid to high-level flow
will promote large to very large hail growth (1 to 3 inches in
diameter). Farther northeast, isolated to scattered storms are
forecast to develop east of the eastward-migrating surface low and
near the front by the mid-late afternoon. HRRR time-lagged runs
this morning show a few supercells with one more longer track storms
moving developing and moving east across central AR in a larger SRH
environment. An all hazards severe risk may accompany the stronger
storms in AR beginning later this afternoon and possibly persisting
through the evening as this activity moves east towards the MS
River. A strong tornado is possible with a sustained discrete
supercell. Upscale growth into a cluster or band of storms is
expected as moderately strong southwesterly 850 to 700-mb flow is
maintained across the Mid South. Damaging gusts and perhaps a
lingering tornado risk will possibly spread east tonight before
storms weaken late.
...Lower Great Lakes into northern New England...
A marginally moist airmass will advect northeastward into the Lower
Great Lakes and Northeast ahead of an eastward-moving cold front,
with low 50s dewpoints likely reaching as far north as ME. This
low-level moisture coupled with afternoon temperatures in the 70s
will support modest buoyancy, despite poor lapse rates.
Thunderstorms are anticipated along and ahead of the
eastward-progressing front as it moves into the destabilized airmass
from the Lower Great Lakes into northern ME.
Strong deep-layer vertical will be in place, supported by relatively
deep southwesterly flow, suggesting the potential for organized
storms. However, this flow will be largely parallel to the
boundary, with linear structures favored. Damaging gusts will be
possible with the strongest storms, although transient updraft
strength should keep the overall coverage and intensity modest.
Isolated hail is possible with a few storms as well. Predominantly
linear mode should keep the tornado risk low, although a
low-probability threat still exists, particularly if a pocket of
strong buoyancy can develop across Upstate NY.
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SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0214 PM CDT Tue May 05 2026
Valid 071200Z - 081200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ...
...SUMMARY...
A few strong to severe thunderstorms are possible on Thursday across
portions of the central Gulf coast into South Carolina.
...Synopsis...
A strong upper-level speed max will move across the Southeast to Mid
Atlantic Thursday as the parent upper trough moves across the Great
Lakes and into the Northeast. A cold front will extend roughly from
the central Carolinas to the north-central Gulf Coast by late
afternoon, with 60s F dewpoints ahead of it.
Scattered thunderstorms may be ongoing Thursday morning across much
of this region ahead of the cold front, within the 850 mb theta-e
plume. A few strong gusts will be possible. Thereafter, the rapid
progression of the upper trough will foster midlevel drying, with
veering low-level winds. As such, the greatest potential for a few
strong storms appear to be from morning through midday prior to the
front moving offshore. Forecast soundings show very strong
deep-layer shear, but also increasing midlevel subsidence which may
counteract additional late afternoon development. Any additional
late day development should be quite isolated and marginal in
nature.
..Jewell.. 05/05/2026
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SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0434 PM CDT Tue May 05 2026
Valid 071200Z - 131200Z
...Synopsis...
Upper troughing will extend along the eastern U.S. and persist
through early next week as an upper-level low over eastern Canada
remains anchored. This pattern will encourage unsettled weather and
repeated chances for precipitation across portions of the Southeast
to the Mid-Atlantic. Broader fire weather concerns may temporarily
be dampened for much of the eastern U.S. through the duration of the
forecast period, given a widespread transition to green up and
expected appreciable precipitation. An upper ridge will prevail
across the western U.S., resulting in above normal temperatures and
dry conditions to continue for much of the Intermountain West
through the forecast period.
On Day 3/Thursday, a cold front will extend from the Carolinas to
Gulf Coast with increasing southwesterly flow ahead of the front. A
deep, dry airmass and 10-15 mph westerly winds atop a drying FL
Peninsula fuelscape will enhance fire weather concerns. 40% Critical
probabilities have been introduced to account for this threat. On
Day 4/Friday, a dry and breezy post frontal environment will
overspread the northern Plains and Upper Midwest. West-northwesterly
winds of 5-15 mph and marginal RH precludes the introduction of
critical probabilities at this time. However, an exceptionally dry
fuelscape (90-95th percentile ERCs) susceptible to increased fire
spread in terrain-favored areas may promote localized fire weather
concerns.
Beneath an upper ridge and northwesterly flow aloft, above normal
temperatures and a dry airmass will remain over much of the western
CONUS. Farther east, periodic breeziness and marginally dry
conditions are expected to continue over the northern Plains and
Upper Midwest through the weekend. Localized fire weather concerns
may emerge where stronger winds overlap dry fuels.
..Elizalde-Garcia.. 05/05/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
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