RSS Mesoscale Discussions from Storm Prediction Center
WW 8 TORNADO AL FL GA CW 151335Z - 152000Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Tornado Watch Number 8
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
835 AM EST Sun Feb 15 2026
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Tornado Watch for portions of
Far Southeast Alabama
Florida Panhandle
Southwest Georgia
Coastal Waters
* Effective this Sunday morning and afternoon from 835 AM until
300 PM EST.
* Primary threats include...
A couple tornadoes possible
Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible
SUMMARY...A squall line will continue east across the Watch through
the morning and into the afternoon as the airmass destabilizes over
the Watch area. The risk for damaging wind gusts (60-70 mph) will
likely concentrate near inflections and cellular portions of the
squall line. A few mesovortices are also possible and may yield a
threat for a couple of tornadoes.
The tornado watch area is approximately along and 75 statute miles
north and south of a line from 40 miles west northwest of Panama
City FL to 15 miles north of Valdosta GA. For a complete depiction
of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS
WOU8).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for
tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch
area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for
threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements
and possible warnings.
&&
AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail
surface and aloft to 0.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind
gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 350. Mean
storm motion vector 25035.
...Smith
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WW 0008 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 1
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 E MLC TO
30 NW RKR TO 35 WSW FYV TO 20 SSE GMJ TO 5 NW JLN.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0009
..MOORE..01/08/26
ATTN...WFO...TSA...SGF...
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 1
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ARC007-143-081840-
AR
. ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BENTON WASHINGTON
MOC119-145-081840-
MO
. MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
MCDONALD NEWTON
OKC001-061-135-081840-
OK
. OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ADAIR HASKELL SEQUOYAH
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WW 0007 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 7
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 ENE BVE
TO 5 NE MOB TO 50 S TCL.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0083
..MOORE..02/15/26
ATTN...WFO...MOB...LIX...JAN...
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 7
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ALC003-025-053-097-151140-
AL
. ALABAMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BALDWIN CLARKE ESCAMBIA
MOBILE
FLC033-091-113-151140-
FL
. FLORIDA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ESCAMBIA OKALOOSA SANTA ROSA
GMZ630-631-632-633-634-635-650-655-151140-
CW
. ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE
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MD 0084 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR FAR SOUTHEAST ALABAMA INTO THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND SOUTHWEST GEORGIA
Mesoscale Discussion 0084
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0645 AM CST Sun Feb 15 2026
Areas affected...Far southeast Alabama into the Florida Panhandle
and southwest Georgia
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible
Valid 151245Z - 151445Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent
SUMMARY...A gradual intensification of a weak QLCS is anticipated
through the morning hours. An uptick in severe wind and tornado
potential is anticipated as this occur, although it remains unclear
exactly when convective intensity will be sufficient to support a
substantial severe threat. Trends will be monitored, and watch
issuance is possible at some point this morning.
DISCUSSION...An uptick in reflectivity and lightning counts has been
noted over the past 30-45 minutes within a weak QLCS as it traverses
the western FL Panhandle and southeast AL. Very limited buoyancy
near the coast has modulated convective intensity for much of the
early morning, but recent guidance has been persistent in showing a
re-intensification of the line at some point in the coming hours.
These recent trends suggest that the early stages of
re-intensification may be underway. Surface observations along the
FL coast show dewpoints increasing into the mid-60s, which may be
sufficient for MLCAPE values upwards of 750 J/kg immediately ahead
of the line based on latest RAP forecast soundings. Convective
elements within the line should continue to intensify as further
low-level moistening occurs in the coming hours. Additionally,
regional VWPs continue to sample ample low-level and deep-layer
shear, which will support an organized linear mode capable of severe
gusts and embedded mesovortices once convective maturation is
achieved. Although it remains somewhat unclear exactly when the QLCS
will reach sufficient intensity to pose a robust severe threat,
watch issuance will likely be needed at some point later this
morning.
..Moore/Smith.. 02/15/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...TAE...MOB...
LAT...LON 30478668 30768645 31278609 31568592 31748369 31758334
31538318 31128318 30678336 30138379 29968397 29768437
29598482 29568506 29748538 29958551 30098566 30198586
30288613 30318636 30378660 30478668
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
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SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0643 AM CST Sun Feb 15 2026
Valid 151300Z - 161200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR FAR SOUTHEAST
ALABAMA...SOUTHERN GEORGIA...AND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE INTO NORTH
FLORIDA...
...SUMMARY...
Widely scattered severe thunderstorms are possible today across much
of northern Florida and into parts of southern Georgia and Alabama.
Wind damage as well as a tornado or two will be possible.
...Southeast AL and southern GA into the FL Panhandle/northern FL...
Water-vapor imagery this morning shows a potent mid-level shortwave
trough moving quickly eastward across the central Gulf Coast.
Surface analysis indicates a partially modified airmass over the
northeast Gulf as a warm conveyor contributes to northward-advancing
moisture ahead of a broken band of convection that has outrun a cold
front overnight. Model guidance shows a low moving eastward across
central MS-AL-GA through mid evening.
The aforementioned pre-frontal band of convection has exhibited a
notable paucity in lightning during the late overnight hours, which
has coincided with the diurnal temperature minimum. However, scant
buoyancy this morning (less than 250 J/kg MLCAPE) will gradually
increase through the morning into the early afternoon (250-1000 J/kg
MLCAPE) amidst modest heating and some increase in low-level
moisture (surface dewpoints rising through the upper 50s to lower to
mid 60s deg F). The severe risk through mid morning remains unclear
due to limited buoyancy, but some increase severe-storm threat is
expected---see forthcoming MCD #0084 for short-term details.
Isolated damaging gusts and a brief tornado are possible before the
greatest window of opportunity for severe appears to occur beginning
late this morning through the mid-late afternoon as this activity
moves east into the eastern FL Panhandle/north FL and southern GA.
The severe risk will likely focus near more intense portions of an
eastward-moving band near inflections/bows, as well as a few
mesovortices. Widely scattered damaging gusts and a couple of brief
tornadoes are possible.
..Smith/Moore.. 02/15/2026
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Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0400 AM CST Sun Feb 15 2026
Valid 181200Z - 231200Z
...DISCUSSION...
Medium-range model output suggests that amplified large-scale
troughing, initially centered near the Pacific coast at the outset
of the period, will gradually develop eastward, across and east of
the Rockies during the latter half of the week into next weekend.
It appears that this will occur in generally piecemeal fashion, as a
series of smaller-scale/lower amplitude perturbations. However,
given the presence of an initially seasonably warm environment to
the lee of the Rockies, potential exists for periodic lee surface
cyclogenesis, possible strong.
To this point, guidance has exhibited rather poor predictability
with these features, but there does appear at least somewhat greater
certainty in potential for substantive surface cyclogenesis by
Thursday, across the central Great Plains toward the Great Lakes
region. Even so, it still appears that preceding Gulf
boundary-layer moistening and inland return flow will only support
limited moistening within the developing warm sector across the
middle Mississippi Valley through much of the day Thursday. By
Thursday night, there are indications that a modest late moisture
surge into the lower Ohio Valley could contribute to increasing
convective potential, but the extent of the severe threat remains
unclear at this time.
Guidance still indicates that better low-level moisture return may
commence ahead of the cold front trailing the cyclone, across parts
of the Ohio/Tennessee Valleys through Ark-La-Tex and southern Great
Plains Friday into Saturday, as upstream perturbations begin to
emerge from the West. However, current model output suggests that
renewed cyclogenesis may be more subdued, and it is possible that
convection may tend to develop and train along and to the cool side
of the front and/or outflow, with uncertain severe weather
potential.
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