RSS Mesoscale Discussions from Storm Prediction Center
No watches are valid as of Fri Jan 16 19:38:02 UTC 2026.
No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Fri Jan 16 19:38:02 UTC 2026.
SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1021 AM CST Fri Jan 16 2026
Valid 161630Z - 171200Z
...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are not forecast today or tonight.
...Discussion...
A longwave trough will remain entrenched from the Rockies eastward,
with multiple shortwave troughs crossing the Upper Midwest and
Rockies. Surface high pressure across the Plains and prevalent cold
and/or stable conditions will considerably limit thunderstorm
potential, even near/ahead of a southeastward-moving front
approaching the Lower Mississippi Valley and middle Gulf Coast.
..Guyer/Squitieri.. 01/16/2026
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SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0134 PM CST Fri Jan 16 2026
Valid 162000Z - 171200Z
...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are not forecast today or tonight.
...20z Update...
No changes are needed to the current D1 Convective Outlook. See
previous discussion below for more info.
..Thornton.. 01/16/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1021 AM CST Fri Jan 16 2026/
...Discussion...
A longwave trough will remain entrenched from the Rockies eastward,
with multiple shortwave troughs crossing the Upper Midwest and
Rockies. Surface high pressure across the Plains and prevalent cold
and/or stable conditions will considerably limit thunderstorm
potential, even near/ahead of a southeastward-moving front
approaching the Lower Mississippi Valley and middle Gulf Coast.
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SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1100 AM CST Fri Jan 16 2026
Valid 171200Z - 181200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
No severe thunderstorms are expected on Saturday.
...Discussion...
A midlevel shortwave trough initially over the central High Plains
will move into the base of a larger-scale trough encompassing the
eastern two-thirds of the CONUS. In response, a weak surface front
and related moisture will move northward into southeastern FL during
the overnight and early morning hours. While buoyancy will be
limited (especially over land areas), isolated thunderstorms will be
possible across the Upper Keys and far southeastern FL. Most
guidance depicts the bulk of this activity remaining offshore, and
eventual removal of the TSTM area may be warranted if this trend
continues.
..Weinman.. 01/16/2026
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SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0112 PM CST Fri Jan 16 2026
Valid 181200Z - 191200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Sunday.
...Southeastern Florida...
An amplified midlevel trough will move across the eastern CONUS
through Sunday evening. The tail-end of a related cold front will
cross the southern FL Peninsula during the afternoon hours.
Along/ahead of the front, sufficient boundary-layer moisture and
buoyancy will support isolated thunderstorms before the front moves
offshore. While moderate deep-layer shear would be sufficient for a
strong storm or two along coastal areas of southeastern FL and the
Upper Keys, current thinking is that limited buoyancy and quickly
veering low-level flow will limit strong-storm potential over land
areas.
..Weinman.. 01/16/2026
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SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1106 AM CST Fri Jan 16 2026
Valid 161700Z - 171200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR NORTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE TEXAS
PANHANDLE INTO WESTERN OKLAHOMA...
...Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles into Western Oklahoma...
Strong northwesterly surface winds of 20-25 mph with gusts to 40 mph
are expected across portions of the southern Plains through this
afternoon. A dry, post frontal air mass will support relative
humidity as low as 15% across western OK and adjacent portions of
the TX/OK Panhandles. The alignment of dry and windy conditions
along with receptive fuels will promote critical fire weather
conditions through this afternoon. Critical highlights were slightly
extended to the south and southwest into portions of far
northwestern TX given latest short term model guidance and current
surface observations.
...Northeastern Colorado into Northwestern Kansas...
Elevated highlights were extended northwestward into much of eastern
CO and the CO Front Range. Cloud cover had remained minimal through
the mid-morning hours. Current observed wind speeds of 30-40 mph
with gusts 50-60 mph will persist through the afternoon. These winds
will combine with very dry air (dew points in the single digits and
minimum relative humidity as low as 15%) to promote an enhanced fire
weather threat across the area despite temperatures only rising into
the 30s and 40s, with receptive fuels in place.
...Southeast...
A very dry air mass is in place across the Southeast with dew points
currently in the single digits. Surface low pressure across the
Great Lakes will promote light south-southwesterly winds across the
region, although speeds are likely to remain limited to 10 mph or
less. Colder temperatures with highs in the 40s will be a mitigating
factor in a larger fire weather threat across the region today, but
localized elevated fire weather conditions are possible where winds
approach 15 mph and RH falls to around 20% this afternoon.
..Williams.. 01/16/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0142 AM CST Fri Jan 16 2026/
...Synopsis...
A strong mid-level jet maximum will progress southward along the
Rockies/western edge of broad-scale eastern-CONUS troughing
throughout the day. As a surface low pressure system colocated with
the trough center moves eastward out of Wisconsin, a strong cold
front will continue to push eastward and southward across much of
the Great Plains and into the Midwest. Low relative humidity,
receptive fuels, and strong post-frontal surface winds will support
Critical fire-weather conditions across portions of the Texas and
Oklahoma panhandles, into western Oklahoma.
...Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles into Western Oklahoma...
Post-frontal conditions in the vicinity of the Texas and Oklahoma
panhandles into western Oklahoma will result in surface wind speeds
of 20-25 MPH, gusting as high as 35-40 MPH. Relative humidity will
broadly range from 15-30%, with the higher values corresponding with
cooler post-frontal temperatures near the border with Kansas. With
seasonal ERCs largely above the 90th percentile, widespread Elevated
and a smaller area of Critical fire-weather conditions are forecast
for this afternoon. A slight westward expansion of the Critical
highlights is introduced in this forecast to reflect greater
confidence in the location of the strongest surface winds per recent
HREF guidance. Though surface temperatures in far southeastern
Colorado into southwestern Kansas will be cooler (near 40F), surface
winds will be much stronger, warranting at least Elevated
highlights.
...Northeastern Colorado into Northwestern Kansas...
Seasonal ERCs are well above the 90th percentile across the region,
with sustained surface winds of 40+ MPH (gusting 50-60 MPH)
expected. However, surface temperatures are expected to remain
cooler (mid 30s F) given a lack of downslope component to the winds.
Forecast middle and upper-level cloud cover will further suppress
surface warming during the afternoon. Though fire-weather concerns
may develop, several limiting factors should limit the spatial and
temporal extent of any potential Elevated highlights.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
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