RSS Mesoscale Discussions from Storm Prediction Center
WW 306 SEVERE TSTM IN MI OH LM 102140Z - 110300Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 306
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
540 PM EDT Wed Jun 10 2026
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of
Central and Northern Indiana
Western into Central Lower Michigan
Far Northwest Ohio
Lake Michigan
* Effective this Wednesday afternoon and evening from 540 PM
until 1100 PM EDT.
* Primary threats include...
Scattered damaging winds likely with isolated significant gusts
to 80 mph possible
Isolated large hail events to 1 inch in diameter possible
A tornado or two possible
SUMMARY...An extensive squall line will continue east into the Watch
area with the primary severe hazard being severe gusts and wind
damage. Severe gusts within the more intense portions of the squall
line will generally range 60 to 70 mph but localized gusts up to 80
mph are possible. A brief tornado is possible with any stronger
mesovortex that could develop within the squall line.
The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 60
statute miles east and west of a line from 40 miles east northeast
of Manistee MI to 45 miles east southeast of Lafayette IN. For a
complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline
update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU6).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.
&&
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 301...WW 302...WW
303...WW 304...WW 305...
AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
1 inch. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 70 knots. A few
cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 450. Mean storm motion vector
25040.
...Smith
Read more
WW 305 TORNADO IA IL MO 102100Z - 110400Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Tornado Watch Number 305
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
400 PM CDT Wed Jun 10 2026
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Tornado Watch for portions of
Southeast Iowa
Far West-Central Illinois
Northeast Missouri
* Effective this Wednesday afternoon and evening from 400 PM
until 1100 PM CDT.
* Primary threats include...
A few tornadoes and a couple intense tornadoes possible
Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2
inches in diameter likely
Scattered damaging winds likely with isolated significant gusts
to 75 mph possible
SUMMARY...Thunderstorms coverage and intensity is expected to
increase across the region this afternoon and evening as a cluster
approaching from the west and outflow modifies under strong
low-level moisture advection. Supercells capable of all severe
hazards, including very large hail and tornadoes, are possible.
Strong to severe downbursts are possible as well, particularly if
the upstream cluster grows upscale.
The tornado watch area is approximately along and 50 statute miles
east and west of a line from 45 miles northwest of Moline IL to 60
miles south southwest of Quincy IL. For a complete depiction of the
watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU5).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for
tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch
area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for
threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements
and possible warnings.
&&
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 301...WW 302...WW
303...WW 304...
AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail
surface and aloft to 2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind
gusts to 65 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean
storm motion vector 24035.
...Mosier
Read more
WW 304 SEVERE TSTM IL IN LM 101940Z - 110300Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 304
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
240 PM CDT Wed Jun 10 2026
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of
Central and Northeast Illinois
Far Northwest Indiana
Lake Michigan
* Effective this Wednesday afternoon and evening from 240 PM
until 1000 PM CDT.
* Primary threats include...
Scattered damaging wind gusts to 65 mph likely
Scattered large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible
A tornado or two possible
SUMMARY...Thunderstorm intensity has increased along the southern
edge of an organized line moving through southern Wisconsin into
central Illinois. Damaging wind gusts and isolated hail are possible
with this storms this afternoon and evening.
The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 65
statute miles east and west of a line from 20 miles south of Decatur
IL to 50 miles north northeast of Bloomington IL. For a complete
depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update
(WOUS64 KWNS WOU4).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.
&&
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 301...WW 302...WW 303...
AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 55 knots. A
few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector
27035.
...Mosier
Read more
WW 303 TORNADO IA KS MO NE 101910Z - 110200Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Tornado Watch Number 303
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
210 PM CDT Wed Jun 10 2026
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Tornado Watch for portions of
Southern Iowa
Central and Eastern Kansas
Northwest and North-Central Missouri
Extreme Southeast Nebraska
* Effective this Wednesday afternoon and evening from 210 PM
until 900 PM CDT.
* Primary threats include...
A few tornadoes likely with a couple intense tornadoes possible
Scattered damaging winds and isolated significant gusts to 75
mph likely
Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 3
inches in diameter likely
SUMMARY...Thunderstorm development is anticipated this afternoon
within the warm and very unstable airmass across the region.
Deep-layer shear is strong enough for supercells capable of all
hazards, including very large hail to 3" in diameter and tornadoes.
A strong tornado (EF2+) is possible. Strong downbursts are
anticipated as well, with one or more severe bowing clusters
possible as the mode trends more linear with time.
The tornado watch area is approximately along and 60 statute miles
north and south of a line from 45 miles southwest of Manhattan KS to
35 miles south southeast of Ottumwa IA. For a complete depiction of
the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS
WOU3).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for
tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch
area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for
threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements
and possible warnings.
&&
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 301...WW 302...
AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail
surface and aloft to 3 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind
gusts to 65 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean
storm motion vector 24030.
...Mosier
Read more
WW 302 SEVERE TSTM MN 101750Z - 110100Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 302
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1250 PM CDT Wed Jun 10 2026
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of
Northern Minnesota
* Effective this Wednesday afternoon and evening from 1250 PM
until 800 PM CDT.
* Primary threats include...
Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2
inches in diameter possible
Scattered damaging wind gusts to 65 mph possible
A tornado or two possible
SUMMARY...Thunderstorm development is expected to increase along and
ahead of a cold front moving through northern Minnesota this
afternoon. Moderate to strong buoyancy and moderate shear will
support the potential for strong updrafts capable of large to
isolated very large hail. A few strong gusts are possible as well.
The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 60
statute miles north and south of a line from 40 miles northwest of
Detroit Lakes MN to 20 miles east southeast of Hibbing MN. For a
complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline
update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU2).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.
&&
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 301...
AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 55 knots. A
few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector
24035.
...Mosier
Read more
WW 301 SEVERE TSTM IA IL MN WI 101700Z - 110000Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 301
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1200 PM CDT Wed Jun 10 2026
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of
Far Eastern Iowa
Northwest Illinois
Extreme Southeast Minnesota
Wisconsin
* Effective this Wednesday afternoon and evening from NOON until
700 PM CDT.
* Primary threats include...
Scattered large hail likely with isolated very large hail events
to 2 inches in diameter possible
Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely
A tornado or two possible
SUMMARY...Ongoing convective line across far east-central Iowa is
forecast to continue northeastward into central/southern Wisconsin,
with an attendant threat for damaging gusts. Additional development
is anticipated farther north from far southeast Minnesota into
northern Wisconsin. Some initially cellular development could
produce large hail. Quick transition to a more linear mode is
expected here as well, with damaging wind then becoming the primary
risk.
The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 105
statute miles north and south of a line from 55 miles north
northwest of Cedar Rapids IA to 60 miles east southeast of Mosinee
WI. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch
outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU1).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.
&&
AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A
few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector
24040.
...Mosier
Read more
WW 0306 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0306 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET
Read more
WW 0305 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 305
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..BENTLEY..06/10/26
ATTN...WFO...DVN...LSX...
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 305
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ILC001-009-013-067-071-073-109-131-149-161-187-195-102240-
IL
. ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ADAMS BROWN CALHOUN
HANCOCK HENDERSON HENRY
MCDONOUGH MERCER PIKE
ROCK ISLAND WARREN WHITESIDE
IAC031-045-057-087-095-097-101-103-105-107-111-113-115-139-163-
177-183-102240-
IA
. IOWA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CEDAR CLINTON DES MOINES
HENRY IOWA JACKSON
JEFFERSON JOHNSON JONES
KEOKUK LEE LINN
LOUISA MUSCATINE SCOTT
VAN BUREN WASHINGTON
MOC007-045-103-111-113-127-137-163-173-199-205-102240-
Read more
WW 0304 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 304
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..BENTLEY..06/10/26
ATTN...WFO...ILX...LOT...
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 304
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ILC017-019-021-029-031-039-041-043-045-053-063-075-089-091-093-
097-099-105-107-113-115-123-125-129-137-139-147-167-171-179-183-
197-203-102240-
IL
. ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CASS CHAMPAIGN CHRISTIAN
COLES COOK DE WITT
DOUGLAS DUPAGE EDGAR
FORD GRUNDY IROQUOIS
KANE KANKAKEE KENDALL
LAKE LA SALLE LIVINGSTON
LOGAN MCLEAN MACON
MARSHALL MASON MENARD
MORGAN MOULTRIE PIATT
SANGAMON SCOTT TAZEWELL
VERMILION WILL WOODFORD
INC007-073-089-111-127-102240-
IN
. INDIANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BENTON JASPER LAKE
Read more
WW 0303 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 303
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..BENTLEY..06/10/26
ATTN...WFO...DMX...OAX...EAX...TOP...ICT...
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 303
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
IAC003-007-039-051-053-117-135-145-159-173-175-179-185-102240-
IA
. IOWA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ADAMS APPANOOSE CLARKE
DAVIS DECATUR LUCAS
MONROE PAGE RINGGOLD
TAYLOR UNION WAPELLO
WAYNE
KSC005-013-017-027-041-043-045-061-079-085-087-091-103-111-113-
115-117-127-131-139-143-149-161-169-177-197-209-102240-
KS
. KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ATCHISON BROWN CHASE
CLAY DICKINSON DONIPHAN
DOUGLAS GEARY HARVEY
JACKSON JEFFERSON JOHNSON
LEAVENWORTH LYON MCPHERSON
MARION MARSHALL MORRIS
NEMAHA OSAGE OTTAWA
POTTAWATOMIE RILEY SALINE
Read more
WW 0302 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 302
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..BENTLEY..06/10/26
ATTN...WFO...DLH...FGF...
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 302
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
MNC001-007-017-021-027-029-035-051-057-061-069-071-077-087-089-
107-111-113-115-119-125-135-137-159-167-102240-
MN
. MINNESOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
AITKIN BELTRAMI CARLTON
CASS CLAY CLEARWATER
CROW WING GRANT HUBBARD
ITASCA KITTSON KOOCHICHING
LAKE OF THE WOODS MAHNOMEN MARSHALL
NORMAN OTTER TAIL PENNINGTON
PINE POLK RED LAKE
ROSEAU ST. LOUIS WADENA
WILKIN
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
Read more
WW 0301 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 301
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..BENTLEY..06/10/26
ATTN...WFO...ARX...DVN...LOT...MPX...GRB...DLH...MKX...
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 301
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ILC007-011-015-037-073-085-103-111-131-141-155-161-177-195-201-
102240-
IL
. ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BOONE BUREAU CARROLL
DE KALB HENRY JO DAVIESS
LEE MCHENRY MERCER
OGLE PUTNAM ROCK ISLAND
STEPHENSON WHITESIDE WINNEBAGO
IAC005-019-031-043-045-055-061-065-097-105-113-139-163-191-
102240-
IA
. IOWA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ALLAMAKEE BUCHANAN CEDAR
CLAYTON CLINTON DELAWARE
DUBUQUE FAYETTE JACKSON
JONES LINN MUSCATINE
SCOTT WINNESHIEK
Read more
MD 1076 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 306... FOR MUCH OF MICHIGAN
Mesoscale Discussion 1076
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0618 PM CDT Wed Jun 10 2026
Areas affected...much of Michigan
Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 306...
Valid 102318Z - 110045Z
The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 306
continues.
SUMMARY...Damaging winds are expected to persist through the
evening. A downstream watch may be needed.
DISCUSSION...A mature squall line continues to move across Michigan
this evening. An unstable airmass is present ahead of this line with
2000 to 2500 J/kg MLCAPE (per SPC mesoanalysis). This line is
appears to be becoming more outflow dominant through time as it
moves east of the stronger mid-level flow. However, given the
unstable environment, and some strengthening of the low-level jet
this evening, this line of storms could continue east of Severe
Thunderstorm Watch 306. If this line of storms appears to remain
severe as it moves east, a downstream watch may be needed.
Additionally, storm activity is being monitored in Gratiot County.
If this storm continue to intensify, a downstream watch may be
issued in the relatively short term.
..Bentley/Smith.. 06/10/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...DTX...APX...IWX...GRR...
LAT...LON 41978484 42248558 42818566 43428583 44148586 44708578
44898495 44798410 44308360 44088297 43578262 43078263
42518293 42198318 42018352 41928417 41978484
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN
Read more
MD 1075 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 303... FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST IOWA...SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA...NORTHEAST KANSAS AND NORTHWEST MISSOURI
Mesoscale Discussion 1075
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0557 PM CDT Wed Jun 10 2026
Areas affected...portions of southwest Iowa...southeast
Nebraska...northeast Kansas and northwest Missouri
Concerning...Tornado Watch 303...
Valid 102257Z - 110030Z
The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 303 continues.
SUMMARY...Large hail, damaging winds and a couple of tornadoes
remain possible across Tornado Watch 303. New storm development and
intensification is ongoing over northeast KS to the west of the
ongoing supercells over northern MO. The environment remains very
favorable for severe weather.
DISCUSSION...West of the tornadic supercells ongoing over the
eastern part of WW303, visible imagery showed deepening cumulus
towers and incipient storms developing along the front and surface
wind shift from northwest MO into IA/NE and northern KS. A very
unstable air mass is in place ahead of the slow-moving cold front
with 4000+ J/kg of MLCAPE which would support intense updrafts.
Vertical shear is also supporting supercells, though linear forcing
along the front and storm interactions could support a mixed
convective mode.
While new storm development has been gradual, likely owing to warmer
mid-level temperatures, expectations are for additional storms to
intensify over the next couple of hours. This matches well with
recent CAM runs showing supercells and clusters evolving from the
deepening CU over northeastern KS. Initially a risk for hail and
damaging gusts is expected, but a 40+ kt low-level jet, depicted on
area RAP soundings, will help increase low-level hodographs size
later this evening. This would support the potential for a couple of
tornadoes with any persistent supercells.
..Lyons.. 06/10/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...DMX...EAX...OAX...TOP...ICT...
LAT...LON 38139747 38649774 38949780 39529719 40609606 40939554
41339451 41309409 40719412 39629437 39059500 38719551
38229652 38079696 38029717 38099732 38139747
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-125 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...2.00-3.50 IN
Read more
MD 1074 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 301... FOR EASTERN MINNESOTA AND WESTERN WISCONSIN
Mesoscale Discussion 1074
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0547 PM CDT Wed Jun 10 2026
Areas affected...eastern Minnesota and western Wisconsin
Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 301...
Valid 102247Z - 110015Z
The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 301
continues.
SUMMARY...Isolated large hail and damaging wind gusts are expected
to persist for a few more hours.
DISCUSSION...A cluster of supercells across eastern Minnesota and
western Wisconsin will persist for a few more hours within an
environment featuring 2500-3000 J/kg MUCAPE (per SPC mesoanalysis)
and 50 knots of 50+ knots of 0-6km shear (per MPX VWP). Isolated
large hail and damaging wind gusts will be the primary threats. As
these storms continue east over the next 1 to 2 hours they will
eventually encounter a much more stable environment across Wisconsin
and should dissipate later this evening.
..Bentley.. 06/10/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...DLH...ARX...MPX...
LAT...LON 43269227 43859273 44519334 45259345 45709324 45899300
45869239 45649152 45149112 44019092 43579095 43239127
43199172 43269227
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN
Read more
SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0259 PM CDT Wed Jun 10 2026
Valid 102000Z - 111200Z
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PORTIONS OF THE
UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO PARTS OF THE PLAINS...
...SUMMARY...
Scattered to numerous severe thunderstorms with potential for large
hail in excess of two inches in diameter, a few strong tornadoes and
damaging winds with gusts over 75 mph are expected this afternoon
and evening across parts of the Upper Mississippi Valley and
Midwest.
...20z Update...
Only minor adjustments were made to the ongoing forecast based on
recent convective trends and recent high-res guidance.
...Upper MS Valley/Great Lakes...
As of 20 UTC, regional radar mosaics depict a mature MCS ongoing
across northern IL into northern WI with multiple severe gusts
reported over the past few hours (see MCD #1066 for additional
short-term details). Behind the MCS, a stout cold pool is in place
from northeast MO into eastern IA and southeast MN featuring
temperatures in the low 70s under a cirrus canopy. This cold pool
casts some uncertainty on the degree of air mass recovery, and
recent high-res guidance suggests that the primary severe threat may
have passed for portions of the region. 30% wind probabilities were
reduced to reflect this trend; however, southwesterly flow from the
surface through 500 mb is advecting higher theta-e air in the low
levels and steeper mid-level lapse rates east/northeastward into the
cold pool. This will support re-development of strong to severe
thunderstorms later this evening with primarily a risk for very
large hail, so maintained Enhanced-caliber hail probabilities to
reflect this potential.
...Central Kansas/northwest Missouri...
A volatile environment is emerging from central KS to northwest MO
where MLCAPE is increasing to 3000-3500 J/kg per an 18 UTC TOP RAOB
and recent mesoanalysis estimates. Additionally, the 18 UTC RAOB
sampled effective bulk shear on the order of 50 knots as well as
strong veering through the lowest kilometer. This environment is
highly favorable for intense supercells, which appear likely in the
coming hours based on recent GOES visible imagery (see MCD #1067 for
additional short-term details). Recent HRRR/RRFS time-lagged
ensemble guidance and WoFS solutions all suggest the highest hail
and tornado threat will likely emerge from the Salina, KS area
northeastward into northwest MO through the evening. Storm mode
remains a modulating factor with upscale growth likely, but a window
exists for very strong discrete/semi-discrete supercells. Both
tornado and hail risk contours were adjusted west/southwestward to
reflect these recent trends.
...Eastern Nebraska/far western Iowa...
Latest forecast guidance continues to show a signal for elevated
convection near the terminus of a low-level jet across eastern
NE/western IA late tonight/early Thursday morning. Forecast
soundings from these solutions, most notably recent RAP runs and the
12z NAM, hint that low-level moisture advection may be sufficient to
support parcels rooted near the surface. While the potential is
fairly low, there is some potential for a tornado threat if
low-level moistening is sufficient given an otherwise favorable
near-surface wind profile, warranting the introduction of 2% tornado
probabilities.
..Moore.. 06/10/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1256 PM CDT Wed Jun 10 2026/
...Mid/Upper MS Valley into the central Plains...
Regional radar imagery shows an ongoing cluster of strong
thunderstorms across southern IA and northern MO, supported by a
residual low-level jet that currently extends from KS/northern OK
into the region. Heating of the very moist airmass downstream will
result in limited convective inhibition and strong to very strong
buoyancy by the early afternoon. Reintensification of the ongoing
cluster is anticipated as it moves within this destabilizing
airmass. Deep-layer shear will be modest but still sufficient for
some organization, and the development of a strong to occasionally
severe bowing line segment appears probable, particularly from
northeast IA into southern WI and northern IL. New updrafts ahead of
the line could also produce hail early in the convective cycle,
while also potentially contributing to updraft augmentation as they
merge into the line. Some isolated hail could result from this
augmentation as well.
Farther north, recent surface analysis placed a triple point low
over northeast SD. An occluded front extends north-northwestward
from this low across eastern ND into central Manitoba, while cold
front extends southward to another low over northeast NE and then
back southwestward across the central Plains. The frontal zone and
triple point low are forecast to progress eastward into the Upper
Midwest, interacting with a diurnally destabilizing airmass to
support thunderstorm development. Ample low-level moisture (i.e.
dewpoints in the upper 60s/low 70s) will support strong buoyancy,
despite modest lapse rates, and moderate deep-layer vertical shear
should be sufficient for updraft organization. As a result, strong
to severe thunderstorms are expected along and just ahead the front,
with large hail as the primary threat. Isolated very large hail to
2" in diameter could occur. Some damaging gusts are possible as
storms transition into bowing line segments over time. There is also
a low-probability for a few brief tornadoes, particularly with any
more cellular development from central into eastern WI from 21 to
00Z.
An additional severe threat will likely materialize this evening in
the wake of the afternoon MCS within the recovered airmass from the
Mid MS Valley westward through the Mid MO Valley into the central
Plains. The impetus for this redevelopment will likely be a complex
combination of low-level convergence along the approaching front,
low-level convergence and warm-air advection along remnant outflow,
and modest large-scale ascent. Development along the front appears
most likely from central IA southwestward into northeast KS, while
development along the outflow appears most likely northwest IL
across southern IA. The airmass in all of these areas will likely
feature ample low-level moisture (i.e. dewpoints in the low to mid
70s), warm surface temperatures (highs in the low 90s), and at least
modestly steep mid-level lapse rates. This will result in strong to
extreme buoyancy, with MLCAPE values exceeding 3000 J/kg from
northeast KS into southern IA, northern MO, and west-central IL.
Complex surface pattern will likely yield limited predictability for
the primary severe hazard this evening. Given the extreme buoyancy
and moderate mid-level flow, any more cellular development that is
able to mature should become supercellular, with all severe hazards
possible, including very large hail and tornadoes. Storm interaction
and strong downdrafts will likely make maintaining a discrete mode
difficult, but low-level hodographs support the potential for a
strong tornado, particularly from 00 to 03Z amid a strengthening
low-level jet.
Lastly, early morning strong to severe thunderstorms are possible
across central/eastern NE as a secondary branch of the low-level jet
develops in response to another shortwave trough moving into the
central High Plains.
...Ohio Valley/Central Appalachians/Mid-Atlantic States...
A moist and unstable airmass will be in place today across much of
the region, with surface dewpoints generally in the lower 70s F.
While some thunderstorms are ongoing early today, additional and
more potent thunderstorm development is expected into the afternoon
as the boundary layer destabilizes. These storms will be further
influenced by a pair of weak eastward-moving MCVs, one over the
upper Ohio River Valley and the other over the central Appalachians.
Damaging winds, associated with water-loaded downbursts, will be the
primary hazard regionally.
Read more
SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0230 PM CDT Wed Jun 10 2026
Valid 121200Z - 131200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING FROM THE ALLEGHENY MOUNTAINS VICINITY THROUGH MUCH OF
THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC AND ADJACENT PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND...
...SUMMARY...
Evolving clusters of storms may spread from the Allegheny Mountains,
and perhaps Poconos and Catskills, into northern Mid Atlantic coast
Friday afternoon and evening, accompanied by potentially damaging
wind gusts.
...Discussion...
Models indicate that subtropical ridging will be maintained across
much of the southern tier of the U.S. through this period.
Mid-level ridging may also build within the mid-latitudes, offshore
of the Pacific coast, but a largely zonal regime appears likely to
be maintained from the northern Rockies through the lower Great
Lakes and northern Mid Atlantic.
While a secondary surface frontal low, shifting northeast of the
Great Lakes region by 12z Friday, turns north/northwestward and
occludes across the Hudson Bay vicinity by Friday night, the
associated mid-level cyclone may only slowly shift eastward to the
south-southwest of Hudson Bay. An increasingly convectively
augmented trailing surface cold front appears likely to advance
southeast of the lower Great Lakes through much of the Mid Atlantic
by 12Z Saturday.
...Allegheny Mountains into western New England/Mid Atlantic...
Models suggest that westerly deep-layer mean wind fields are likely
to remain rather modest through this period, and forcing for ascent
associated with one or two short wave perturbations pivoting around
the periphery of the mid-level low may be glancing with respect to
the evolving surface warm sector. However, guidance generally
suggests that a seasonably moist pre-frontal boundary-layer (surface
dew points near 70F) across the Allegheny Plateau/Mountains into the
Adirondacks and Champlain/Hudson Valley vicinity may become
characterized by sizable CAPE on the order of 2000+ J/kg with
insolation. Preceding at least weak mid-level height falls, this
environment is expected to become supportive increasing vigorous
thunderstorm through early/mid Friday afternoon.
Strengthening surface cold pools, perhaps aided by
lower/mid-tropospheric flow on the order of 20-30+ kt, may
contribute to modestly organizing clusters with potential to produce
damaging wind gusts while propagating east of the higher terrain,
toward the northern Mid Atlantic coast, through early Friday
evening.
..Kerr.. 06/10/2026
Read more
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0148 PM CDT Wed Jun 10 2026
Valid 111200Z - 121200Z
Only minor adjustments were made to the larger Elevated area over
and near the southern/central Rockies. A slight expansion was made
over the southern extent of the area in central NM where the latest
forecast guidance suggests that stronger westerly winds will spread
slightly farther south. Similarly, a slight expansion to the
northern end of this Elevated area over southeast WY where the
latest forecast guidance indicates slightly lower afternoon RHs will
combine with breezy northwesterly winds behind the cold front.
Elsewhere, including over the Sacramento Valley in CA, the forecast
remains on track with the latest guidance. There is some potential
for briefly Critical wind/RH conditions over a small area of
northwest NM. However, the anticipated areal extent, duration, and
likelihood of these stronger winds occurring remains limited
precluding any potential upgrade with this forecast. The latest
forecast guidance also shows elevated wind/RH spreading farther east
over portions of the central High Plains. However, recent rainfall
and resultant sub-critical fuels preclude a fire weather threat
there.
..Stearns.. 06/10/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1235 AM CDT Wed Jun 10 2026/
...Synopsis...
A compact upper trough will exit the Great Basin region on Day
2/Thursday afternoon, traversing the High Plains and moving over the
Upper Midwest in the late evening. A surface low will eject out of
the southern Rockies on Day 1/Wednesday, developing northeastward to
the Great Lakes region and sending a cold front southward through
the southern Plains on Day 2/Thursday. An amplifying upper ridge
over the eastern Pacific will promote warm and dry conditions across
the Interior West, though much lighter winds (compared to previous
days) will bring some relief to the fire environment. However, very
dry fuels will continue to support Elevated fire concerns.
...Four Corners, southern Colorado Rockies and adjacent High
Plains...
As the upper trough and attendant surface low exit the region,
surface troughing over the Four Corners and Colorado Plateau will
support westerly winds up to 15 mph amid 10-15% RH. In the wake of a
cold front, veering north-easterly 15-20 mph winds (gusts up to 30
mph) and RH values of 10-20% will spread across portions of the
southern Rockies and adjacent High Plains. Elevated highlights have
been introduced to account for these conditions where dry fuels
exist.
...Sacramento Valley...
Northerly winds of 10-15 mph on Day 1/Wednesday will persist into
the morning of Day 2/Thursday with very poor humidity recoveries (RH
values of 20-30% overnight). As an upper ridge over the eastern
Pacific pushes the upper trough eastward, northwesterly flow aloft
will weaken and shift more westerly. Northerly surface winds will
gradually decrease throughout the afternoon, however the fire
concerns remain as 10-15% RH persists into the evening. An extended
burning period and dry fine fuels support Elevated highlights within
the Valley and adjacent foothills.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0452 PM CDT Wed Jun 10 2026
Valid 121200Z - 181200Z
...Synopsis...
Broad upper-level troughing will be in place over the
Manitoba/Ontario region continuing on Day 3/Friday as a ridge begins
to build over the west coast. A shortwave trough is forecast to
push south/eastward around the base of the persistent Canadian
trough, moving through the northern Rockies around Day 5/Sunday. A
breakdown of the upper-level ridge will begin early next week as a
jet max progresses ahead of another northern Pacific trough. This
trough is currently anticipated to arrive onshore of the Pacific
Northwest late next week, nudging the remnants of the western ridge
over the Great Plains by late next week.
...Day 3/Friday...
...Four Corners, Southern Colorado Rockies, and Great Basin...
The broader fire weather threat will linger and become more focused
over the central Rockies and nearby portions of the central High
Plains through Day 3/Friday. Additionally, portions of the Snake
River Plain will also experience these winds as a cold front
approaches from the north ahead of the aforementioned shortwave.
This will allow for above normal surface temperatures and coincident
dry afternoon Rh's (5-15%) on Day 3/Friday that will combine with
westerly winds (sustained at 10-20 mph) across both highlighted
areas.
...Day 4/Saturday...
A relatively skinny ridge in place over the western CONUS, a subtle
mid-level shortwave moving over the Southwest, and a plume of
moisture advecting northward from Tropical Storm Boris will lead to
potential convection primarily over the southern Great Basin on Day
4/Saturday. This combined with dry antecedent conditions from
multiple days of the recent hot, dry, and windy pattern will result
in a dry thunderstorm concern over northern AZ into southern UT. The
latest forecast guidance has sped up the northern reach of this
moisture a bit, necessitating a northward shift of the existing 10
percent Dry Thunderstorm area. Modifications to this area will
likely be required in subsequent outlooks as forecast certainty
increases.
Thereafter, a lingering isolated dry thunderstorm threat isn't out
of the question over the central/southern Great Basin on Day
5/Sunday. However, depending on how moisture advection trends with
forecast guidance, the threat beyond Day 4/Saturday will likely be
dampened. Additionally, the breakdown of the upper-level ridge in
place over the west will likely lead to fire weather concerns
sometime next week across a broad area of the Intermountain West.
However, the placement and timing of that threat is currently
unknown. This scenario will be watched closely as details become
more clear.
..Stearns.. 06/10/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
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