RSS Mesoscale Discussions from Storm Prediction Center
No watches are valid as of Sun Jan 11 17:35:02 UTC 2026.
MD 0021 CONCERNING SNOW SQUALL FOR PARTS OF SOUTHWESTERN/SOUTH-CENTRAL NY...WESTERN/CENTRAL PA...AND FAR NORTHERN WV AND WESTERN MD
Mesoscale Discussion 0021
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0919 AM CST Sun Jan 11 2026
Areas affected...Parts of southwestern/south-central
NY...western/central PA...and far northern WV and western MD
Concerning...Snow Squall
Valid 111519Z - 112015Z
SUMMARY...Periodic snow squalls with bursts of heavy snow and
visibility reductions to 1/4 to 1/2 mile will be possible into this
afternoon.
DISCUSSION...Preceding a robust midlevel trough and within the
left-exit region of a 90-100-kt midlevel jet, a secondary cold front
is tracking eastward across parts of western NY, western PA, and far
northern WV. Mosaic radar data indicates a few loosely organized
snow squalls along the wind shift -- some of which have been
associated with visibility reductions to 1/4 mile and gusty winds.
Through the afternoon, cold midlevel temperatures accompanying the
trough will steepen low-level lapse rates (generating weak low-level
instability) amid 30-40 kt of unidirectional west-southwesterly flow
in the lowest 2 km (per regional VWP). This will support the
development of periodic snow-squall conditions spreading eastward
into the afternoon.
Given the lack of a stronger cold front/low-level frontogenesis,
these squalls may tend to be transient and generally be associated
with visibility reductions of 1/2. However, 1/4 mile visibility and
strong gusts will be possible with the stronger squalls that evolve,
as seen by the Delevan NY State mesonet web cam in northeast
Cattaraugus County NY at 1500-1515Z.
..Weinman.. 01/11/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...BGM...BUF...CTP...LWX...PBZ...
LAT...LON 40847957 41447933 42217883 42807830 43147773 43177729
43067649 42787614 42277584 41707596 41407639 41237689
40837756 39407859 39147924 39297985 39627990 40847957
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SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0958 AM CST Sun Jan 11 2026
Valid 111630Z - 121200Z
...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are not forecast through tonight across the contiguous
United States.
...Synopsis...
Water-vapor imagery shows a large-scale trough over the East and
split flow over the West featuring a low over the Gulf of California
and zonal flow over the northwest CONUS. Cool/stable conditions
will influence weather conditions east of the Rockies, and as a
result, prove hostile to thunderstorm development.
..Smith/Wendt.. 01/11/2026
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SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1048 AM CST Sun Jan 11 2026
Valid 121200Z - 131200Z
...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorm potential appears low on Monday.
...Synopsis...
A mid/upper shortwave trough and attendant strong jet will move
southeastward from the Canadian Prairies towards the northern Plains
and Upper Midwest through the period. This system will be
accompanied by cooling aloft and steepening midlevel lapse rates,
but available moisture appears insufficient for appreciable
buoyancy, resulting in limited thunderstorm potential.
An upper low is forecast to move across northern Mexico and approach
southwest TX. Limited moisture is expected to result in negligible
to only very weak elevated buoyancy, and thunderstorm potential
appears low at this time.
Some low-level moistening and weak destabilization will be possible
across far south FL and the Keys, but poor lapse rates and weak
forcing are expected to hamper development of deep convection.
..Dean.. 01/11/2026
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SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1047 AM CST Sun Jan 11 2026
Valid 111700Z - 121200Z
No changes were necessary to the current Elevated highlights across
portions of the Carolinas and southeastern GA. A cooler but
considerably drier air mass continues to filter into the
southeastern CONUS behind a cold front as an accompanying strong
upper trough nears the East Coast. Downslope-enhanced northwest
winds of 10-20 mph with higher gusts in the Piedmont and Coastal
Plains regions along with relative humidity falling into the 20-30%
range, will overlap with dry fuels (where no frontal precipitation
occurred over the last 24 hours) to promote elevated fire weather
conditions across southeastern Georgia and the Coastal Plains of the
Carolinas through this afternoon.
..Williams.. 01/11/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1251 AM CST Sun Jan 11 2026/
...Synopsis...
A broad mid-level trough over the eastern Great Lakes will rapidly
intensify as it moves southeastward and offshore over the eastern US
today and tonight. A 100+ kt mid-level jet south of the trough will
eject over the Appalachians and portions of the Southeast. At the
surface, a cold front will quickly move offshore while strong high
pressure builds over the interior CONUS. This will support gusty
downslope winds over parts of the Southeast.
...Southeast...
As the upper trough moves offshore, strong west/northwest downslope
winds will develop behind the surface cold front in the lee of the
Appalachians. Sustained at 10-15 mph with gusts of 20 mph, the
downslope trajectories and rapid drying should allow for widespread
RH below 30% across the Piedmont and coastal plains. Given the
favorable overlap of dry conditions, gusty winds and no rainfall, a
few hours of elevated fire weather conditions are expected across
southeastern Georgia and the Coastal Plains of the Carolinas.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
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