RSS Mesoscale Discussions from Storm Prediction Center
No watches are valid as of Wed Feb 25 19:52:02 UTC 2026.
MD 0118 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PARTS OF SOUTHWESTERN NEBRASKA AND ADJACENT NORTHEASTERN COLORADO/SOUTHEASTERN WYOMING
Mesoscale Discussion 0118
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0107 PM CST Wed Feb 25 2026
Areas affected...parts of southwestern Nebraska and adjacent
northeastern Colorado/southeastern Wyoming
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 251907Z - 252130Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent
SUMMARY...A few strong surface gusts in excess of 50 kt may
accompany otherwise weak thunderstorm activity overspreading the
region through 1-4 PM MST.
DISCUSSION...Near the southern periphery of a low-amplitude digging
short wave perturbation, lower/mid-tropospheric lapse rates are in
the process of becoming quite steep near the Cheyenne Ridge
vicinity. This is occurring in response to continuing insolation
and deep boundary-layer mixing, beneath strong west-northwesterly
flow which may include speeds increasing to 50+ kt as low as 700 mb
during the next couple of hours.
Despite boundary-layer moisture characterized by surface dew points
around 30F, forecast soundings suggest the development of up to a
few hundred J/kg of CAPE, which may maintain and perhaps support at
least some further intensification of ongoing upstream convective
development. Some lightning is possible, but, more notably, this
low-topped convection probably will enhance the downward transfer of
the stronger momentum to the surface, before activity develops into
a more stable environment deeper into the the Great Plains.
..Kerr/Smith.. 02/25/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...GID...LBF...GLD...BOU...CYS...
LAT...LON 41680410 41740279 41540154 40729960 40240029 40590235
41210409 41680410
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
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SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1030 AM CST Wed Feb 25 2026
Valid 251630Z - 261200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe gusts are possible across parts of the central High
Plains late this afternoon into the early evening.
...Central High Plains...
Water-vapor imagery this morning shows a mid-level shortwave
trough/speed max over southern MT/northern WY as it crests an upper
ridge over the West and moves quickly east-southeastward to the MS
Valley through tonight. Morning visible-satellite imagery shows a
cirrus shield extending eastward across parts of the central High
Plains atop a relatively dry boundary layer (surface dewpoints
around 30 deg F). A dearth of observed data sampling boundary layer
moisture above the surface lends to some uncertainty for this
forecast. Yet, westerly downslope flow is leading to warming
surface temperatures (mid 50s deg F) with additional mixing/warming
likely resulting in nearly dry adiabatic lapse rates in the 0-3 km
layer by mid afternoon. As the upper disturbance approaches and a
cold front --roughly delineated by low cloud cover across northern
WY/western SD-- pushes southward into the central High Plains late
today, isolated high-based convection is forecast to develop.
Forecast soundings show upwards of a few hundred SBCAPE and strong
west-northwesterly flow within a steep-lapse-rate environment. A
few of the stronger evaporatively cooled downdrafts may yield an
isolated risk for severe gusts (60-65 mph) primarily during the
21-01 UTC period.
Elsewhere, thunderstorm potential will otherwise develop
east-southeastward toward the Ozarks/Mid-South/Tennessee Valley
tonight as warm/moist advection interfaces with a
southward-spreading front, with weak buoyancy expected to limit hail
potential with this mostly elevated convection.
..Smith/Squitieri.. 02/25/2026
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SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0148 PM CST Wed Feb 25 2026
Valid 252000Z - 261200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe gusts are possible across parts of the central High
Plains late this afternoon into the early evening.
...20z Update...
The previous forecast largely remains on track with only minor
adjustments made - namely a slight northward expansion of 5% wind
probabilities to better align with developing convection across
west/southwest NE. Although this convection is fairly weak, severe
wind gusts have been observed across far western NE within the past
hour associated with convectively-augmented downward mixing of
strong flow aloft. The potential for additional severe gusts should
continue through the next several hours downstream. See the previous
discussion below and MCD #118.
..Moore.. 02/25/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1030 AM CST Wed Feb 25 2026/
...Central High Plains...
Water-vapor imagery this morning shows a mid-level shortwave
trough/speed max over southern MT/northern WY as it crests an upper
ridge over the West and moves quickly east-southeastward to the MS
Valley through tonight. Morning visible-satellite imagery shows a
cirrus shield extending eastward across parts of the central High
Plains atop a relatively dry boundary layer (surface dewpoints
around 30 deg F). A dearth of observed data sampling boundary layer
moisture above the surface lends to some uncertainty for this
forecast. Yet, westerly downslope flow is leading to warming
surface temperatures (mid 50s deg F) with additional mixing/warming
likely resulting in nearly dry adiabatic lapse rates in the 0-3 km
layer by mid afternoon. As the upper disturbance approaches and a
cold front --roughly delineated by low cloud cover across northern
WY/western SD-- pushes southward into the central High Plains late
today, isolated high-based convection is forecast to develop.
Forecast soundings show upwards of a few hundred SBCAPE and strong
west-northwesterly flow within a steep-lapse-rate environment. A
few of the stronger evaporatively cooled downdrafts may yield an
isolated risk for severe gusts (60-65 mph) primarily during the
21-01 UTC period.
Elsewhere, thunderstorm potential will otherwise develop
east-southeastward toward the Ozarks/Mid-South/Tennessee Valley
tonight as warm/moist advection interfaces with a
southward-spreading front, with weak buoyancy expected to limit hail
potential with this mostly elevated convection.
Read more
SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1127 AM CST Wed Feb 25 2026
Valid 261200Z - 271200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms will be possible across portions of the Southeast on
Thursday, but severe weather is not expected.
...Discussion...
An expansive area of northwest flow aloft will extend from the
Rockies to the East Coast on Thursday. High Pressure will be in
place from the central Plains across the OH Valley and into the
Northeast, with a cold front slowly pushing south into the Gulf
Coast states. A leading wave will affect the Appalachians into the
Northeast during the day, with a secondary wave moving into the
southern Plains late.
During the afternoon, upper 50s to low 60s dewpoints will exist
ahead of this front, from eastern TX across LA, MS, AL, and into GA.
Daytime heating will bring temperatures into the upper 60s to lower
70s, resulting in maximum CAPE values into the 500-750 J/kg range.
While mid and high level winds will be strong with 50+ kt effective
shear, winds in the low levels and convergence will be weak.
Widespread rain will be likely from northern AL and GA into the
Carolinas north of the boundary where a few hundred J/kg elevated
CAPE will be present. Small/non-severe hail cannot be ruled out with
this activity. Given conditionally favorable shear, cooler
temperatures aloft and influence of the upper wave, large hail could
occur should stronger-than-forecast instability develop near/north
of the boundary.
To the south, isolated widely-scattered thunderstorms may develop
during the afternoon across MS/AL/GA near the front and perhaps
across the warm sector at peak heating. Forecast soundings indicate
areas of subsidence aloft as winds veer to westerly behind the lead
wave. Given these factors, these storms are expected to be
non-severe.
..Jewell.. 02/25/2026
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SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0120 PM CST Wed Feb 25 2026
Valid 271200Z - 281200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
General thunderstorms are likely over parts of the Southeast on
Friday. Severe thunderstorms are not currently forecast.
...Synopsis...
A shortwave trough will move from the southern Plains toward the
northern Gulf of America on Friday, with cooling aloft overspreading
much of the Southeast. At the surface, a prominent ridge will extend
from the Mid Atlantic across the TN and into the lower MS Valley,
with a cold front roughly from SC into LA.
Near this front, rain and a few thunderstorms are likely to be
ongoing from southern LA/MS/AL/GA into northern FL Friday morning.
While clouds and precipitation may hamper heating, at least a few
hundred J/kg MLCAPE appears likely given lower 60s F dewpoints and a
plume of low-level theta-e extending out of the northern Gulf and
across the FL Panhandle/southern AL/southern GA.
Given questionable destabilization and relatively weak boundary
layer winds, potential for isolated strong/severe storms are not
currently depicted.
..Jewell.. 02/25/2026
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SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1013 AM CST Wed Feb 25 2026
Valid 251700Z - 261200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF EAST-CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO INTO FAR WESTERN TEXAS...
...Morning Update...
No changes were made to the previous forecast. Ample high cloud
cover is visible on satellite imagery across eastern NM and west TX,
likely to persist through the afternoon. Westerly wind gusts of
25-35 mph have already been observed this morning in southeastern NM
with RH values hovering at and below 20%. Increasing sustained
downslope winds of 20-30 mph and RH below 20% atop a dry fuelscape
will support Critical fire weather conditions this afternoon for
this area. In the CO Front Range, cross-terrain surface pressure
gradients beneath an incoming 40-60 kt 700 mb jet will support gusty
downslope winds through the Central High Plains. In
central-southeastern CO, RH of 20-25% will be slightly displaced
from the strongest sustained surface winds to the north, though
local terrain-driven wind tunneling may generate isolated areas of
higher winds, so locally critical fire weather conditions may be
possible given receptive fuels. See the previous discussion for more
information.
..Elizalde-Garcia/Thornton.. 02/25/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0135 AM CST Wed Feb 25 2026/
...Synopsis...
...Central/southern High Plains...
Moderately strong northwesterly mid-level flow will persist across
the central and southern Rockies today with lee troughing in place
across much of the central and southern High Plains. The cross
terrain surface pressure gradient will support dry, downslope winds
of 20-30 mph across portions of east-central and southeast New
Mexico this afternoon. A plume of mid-level moisture will nose into
the area through the day, fostering some high-level cloud cover and
a modest increase in surface dewpoints. Given this, guidance is not
overly confident in RH dropping below 15% for more than a brief
period. However, the increased winds overlapping a dry fuelscape
will still support a period of Critical fire weather conditions
during the afternoon.
RH values of around 20% with surface winds of 15-20 mph are expected
elsewhere across the central/southern High Plains, but locally
higher winds are possible within terrain-favored locations.
...Edwards Plateau into South-Central Texas...
A modest surface low will gradually progress southeastward across
portions of central Texas today. Winds of 15-20 mph will be possible
to the south and west of this feature. Coupled with expected RH
values of 15-20%, this will support Elevated fire weather conditions
this afternoon.
...Northeastern Colorado into southwestern Nebraska and northwestern
Kansas...
Strong northwesterly flow across the central Rockies will align with
a favorable cross-terrain surface pressure gradient to support a
strong downslope wind event across portions of the central High
Plains. Sustained surface winds of 20-30 mph are expected along with
the potential for gusts up to 45-55 mph. While RH values are
forecast to remain marginal (20-25%), the strong downslope winds
will overlap with receptive fuels to support Elevated fire weather
conditions this afternoon.
Locally elevated fire weather conditions are possible farther north
into portions of southeastern Wyoming and the Nebraska Panhandle;
however, such conditions are expected to be brief given anticipated
RH increases behind an advancing surface cold front.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
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SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0106 PM CST Wed Feb 25 2026
Valid 261200Z - 271200Z
...20z Update...
Elevated fire weather highlights have been maintained for areas east
of the Rockies into the Central High Plains and parts of
South-Central Texas. In Texas, a weak, dry cold front will decrease
surface RH values between 10-20% and increase sustained
northwesterly surface winds to 15-20 mph (locally higher gusts up to
30 mph possible). With dry conditions on Day 1/Wednesday and poor
overnight humidity recovery, finer fuels will likely be receptive to
fire. In the Central High Plains, low RH values of 10-20% and
northwesterly downslope surface winds of 15-25 mph atop a dry
fuelscape will support Elevated fire weather conditions in the
afternoon.
In central-southeastern Montana, a tight lee surface pressure
gradient beneath modest mid-level northwesterly flow may support a
few hours of strong downslope winds. Given light precipitation on
Day 1/Wednesday and forecast RH values between 20-30% at peak
heating, Elevated highlights have been withheld. See the previous
discussion for more information.
..Elizalde-Garcia/Thornton.. 02/25/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0235 AM CST Wed Feb 25 2026/
...Synopsis...
...Portions South-Central Texas...
A modest surface low pressure center will shift southward across
central and southern Texas on Thursday, with a weak, dry cold front
bringing dry and breezy northerly surface winds to portions of
south-central Texas. Warm/dry conditions on Wednesday will aid in
the drying of finer fuels, thus sustained winds of 15-20 mph
overlapping RH values of 15-20% are expected to support Elevated
fire weather conditions Thursday afternoon.
...Portions of the Central and Southern High Plains...
Strengthening high pressure across the Wyoming Basin and
northwestern Colorado will support a strong cross-terrain pressure
gradient across the central Rockies underneath modest northwesterly
mid-level flow. This will favor strong downslope winds of 15-25 mph
(locally higher in terrain-favored areas) and RH values of 15-20%
downstream of the Laramie Mountains and Central Rockies. With
receptive fuels in place across the region, Elevated fire weather
highlights have been added for portions of the central and southern
High Plains.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
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