SPC - No watches are valid as of Mon Dec 29 06:37:02 UTC 2025

No watches are valid as of Mon Dec 29 06:37:02 UTC 2025.

SPC MD 2285

MD 2285 CONCERNING FREEZING RAIN FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN NEW YORK AND NORTHERN MASSACHUSETTS INTO CENTRAL AND NORTHERN VERMONT AND NEW HAMPSHIRE

Mesoscale Discussion 2285
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0840 PM CST Sun Dec 28 2025

Areas affected...portions of eastern New York and northern
Massachusetts into central and northern Vermont and New Hampshire

Concerning...Freezing rain 

Valid 290240Z - 290745Z

SUMMARY...Freezing rain is expected across portions of New England
through tonight, with at least .06 inch/3 hour accretion rates
possible. The best chance for the highest accretion rates,
particularly over the next 3-6 hours, would be over northern New
England.

DISCUSSION...Warm-air/moisture advection, within the 925-700 mb
layer, is increasing over the northern Appalachians in response to
an approaching, deepening surface cyclone and accompanying 100+ kt
500 mb jet streak. A broad shield of rainfall is overspreading a
surface layer that has been and remains well below freezing in
several locales. While warm-air advection aloft is strong, the
displacement of the sub-freezing surface temperatures may not take
place until after 3 AM EST. Heavier WAA-induced rainfall atop a
persistent sub-freezing surface is quite favorable for appreciable
ice accumulations over the next 6 hours. An ice storm is possible,
with over .06/3 hour accumulation rates potentially becoming
commonplace. The best chance for significant ice accumulations would
be over parts of northern New England, closer to the international
border. Here, At least moderate rain rates should fall into a
sub-freezing surface layer the longest, with 32+ F surface
temperatures approaching from the south, reaching this region much
later tonight.

..Squitieri.. 12/29/2025

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...GYX...BOX...BTV...ALY...BGM...BUF...

LAT...LON   43187107 42647172 42517236 42437317 42477421 42687531
            42897580 44127560 44687545 45027472 45107260 44957172
            44287122 43187107 

SPC Dec 29, 2025 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
      
Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1121 PM CST Sun Dec 28 2025

Valid 291200Z - 301200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
A few thunderstorms may be noted across the lower Rio Grande Valley
very early in the period.

...Lower Rio Grande Valley...

Surface front is surging south across south central TX late this
evening as pressures build over the central/southern Plains. Latest
model guidance suggests the wind shift will reach the international
border around 12z, then quickly advance deep into northeast Mexico.
A narrow band of shallow convection is currently noted along the
front as far west as Wilson county TX. Forecast soundings for deep
South TX at the start of the period suggest both pre frontal and
post frontal parcels will exhibit sufficient buoyancy for the
strongest updrafts to possibly penetrate levels necessary for
lightning discharge. Any post frontal lightning threat should be
over by 15z.

..Darrow/Squitieri.. 12/29/2025


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SPC Dec 29, 2025 0700 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
      
Day 2 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1132 PM CST Sun Dec 28 2025

Valid 301200Z - 311200Z

...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms will not occur on Tuesday or Tuesday night.

...Discussion...
Conditions will be too dry/stable for lightning-producing convection
across the CONUS through the period.

..Grams.. 12/29/2025


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SPC Dec 29, 2025 0830 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
      
Day 3 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1234 AM CST Mon Dec 29 2025

Valid 311200Z - 011200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated thunderstorms are possible late Wednesday night/early
Thursday morning along coastal southern California.

...Southern CA...
A retrograding cutoff low currently near the central/southern CA
coast is consistently progged to eject back northeastward as a
shortwave trough towards the southern CA coast on Wednesday night.
Ahead of this trough, sufficient 850-700 mb moisture within the
modest warm conveyor combined with weak mid-level cooling may yield
scant elevated buoyancy by the 06-12Z period. This could support a
threat of isolated thunderstorms, mainly early morning Thursday.

..Grams.. 12/29/2025


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