RSS Mesoscale Discussions from Storm Prediction Center
No watches are valid as of Tue Mar 17 09:50:02 UTC 2026.
No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Tue Mar 17 09:50:02 UTC 2026.
Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0112 AM CDT Tue Mar 17 2026
Valid 201200Z - 251200Z
...DISCUSSION...
An upper ridge will hold over the Southwest from Fri/D4 into Sat/D5,
but will begin to flatten as a progressive, low-amplitude wave moves
into the far northern Rockies and Plains. This feature is then
forecast to amplify across the Great Lakes and Northeast during the
Sun/D6 to Tue/D8 period, while an upper ridge possibly re-builds
over the Southwest. However, predictability becomes low for that
pattern change.
In association with the northern wave, low pressure with a trailing
cold front may develop from the Plains to the Mid Atlantic from
Sun/D6 into Mon/D7. Given the antecedent dry conditions, only
marginal moisture return and destabilization are expected. While
this may support scattered thunderstorms across the Ohio Valley
region on Sunday/D6, substantial severe weather is not anticipated.
Behind that system, a reinforcing high will likely spread south
across the Plains and much of the East, resulting in stable
conditions.
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SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0122 AM CDT Tue Mar 17 2026
Valid 171200Z - 181200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR NORTHWEST TEXAS INTO SOUTHWEST
OKLAHOMA...
...Synopsis...
Elevated to critical fire weather conditions are expected today
across the High Plains and southern Plains. Very dry conditions are
prevalent across the central CONUS in the wake of a strong frontal
passage (dewpoints in the single digits to low teens over the Plains
are near/below the 10th percentile for mid-March). Surface high
pressure over the southern CONUS will continue to shift east through
the day as a lee trough deepens along the High Plains. The resulting
pressure gradient winds across the southern Plains and off downslope
flow the western slopes of the Rockies will promote elevated to
critical fire weather conditions over regions with recent wildfire
activity.
...Southern Plains...
Forecast guidance continues to show strengthening southwest winds
through the afternoon across central TX to central OK as the
pressure gradient strengthens with the deepening surface trough
along the High Plains. Relative humidity reductions will be most
pronounced (and possibly as low as 10-15%) from western TX into
southwest OK under the low-level thermal ridge. Model consensus
suggests winds through this corridor will increase to 15-20 mph;
however, guidance typically under-mixes the boundary layer in dry
return flow regimes with higher RH values and weaker winds than
actually observed. Based on this, the expectation is that winds
under the thermal ridge will likely be sustained near 20 mph, which
will increase the probability of sustained critical fire weather
conditions. A targeted critical risk area has been introduced across
this region.
...Central to southern High Plains...
Westerly 15-20 mph winds off the central to southern Rockies will
support several areas of elevated fire weather conditions from
central and southeast WY southward into West TX. Forecast guidance
show reasonably good agreement in RH reductions down to 20% with
areas of 15% possible. Solutions that typically over-mix in these
regimes (notably the RAP and HRRR) hint that 20-25 mph winds are
possible across southeast WY into far northeast CO and parts of the
NE Panhandle where active wildfires have been ongoing in recent
days. Confidence in sustained critical conditions across this
corridor is limited due to spread in guidance and poor ensemble
agreement, but given the very dry conditions, observed trends will
be monitored for the need for Critical highlights.
..Moore.. 03/17/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
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SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0144 AM CDT Tue Mar 17 2026
Valid 181200Z - 191200Z
...Synopsis...
Elevated fire weather conditions will persist across portions of the
central High Plains on Wednesday. An anomalously strong upper ridge
will gradually build across the Southwest over the next 48 hours,
which will establish a northwesterly flow regime over the central
CONUS. With stronger mid-level flow displaced towards the northern
Rockies, lee troughing will become most pronounced across central MT
to eastern WY Wednesday morning through the afternoon. Confidence is
fairly high (80%) in sustained winds between 15-25 mph across
central WY into the NE Panhandle and far northeast CO. A resumption
of westerly downslope flow will support RH reductions into the
20-25% range based on ensemble consensus. Drier/more well-mixed
solutions hint at RH reductions as low as the 10-15% range, which
would support a swath of critical fire weather conditions (mainly
across central to southeast WY). However, confidence in this
potential is limited based on modest ensemble probabilities (around
40-50% probability of RH reductions below 15%). Regardless,
antecedent drought conditions and preceding dry/windy conditions on
Tuesday will maintain dry fuels (and/or help cure fine fuels in
areas that recently received precipitation) to support the fire
weather threat Wednesday afternoon.
..Moore.. 03/17/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
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