RSS Mesoscale Discussions from Storm Prediction Center
WW 444 SEVERE TSTM IA NE SD 030440Z - 031100Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 444
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1140 PM CDT Thu Jul 2 2026
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of
Western Iowa
Northern Nebraska
Southeast South Dakota
* Effective this Thursday night and Friday morning from 1140 PM
until 600 AM CDT.
* Primary threats include...
Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible
Isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter possible
A tornado or two possible
SUMMARY...Occasionally strong to severe thunderstorms are expected
to continue early in the overnight mainly across northern
Nebraska/far southeast South Dakota, but may further increase and
gradually organize as they progress east-southeastward into western
Iowa. Bouts of large hail and damaging winds will be possible, and
damaging winds could become a bit more prominent should a
well-organized cluster/linear MCS develop overnight.
The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 45
statute miles north and south of a line from 10 miles south
southwest of Ainsworth NE to 50 miles east southeast of Storm Lake
IA. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch
outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU4).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.
&&
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 441...WW 442...WW 443...
AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A
few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 600. Mean storm motion vector
29020.
...Guyer
Read more
WW 441 SEVERE TSTM MT ND SD WY 022205Z - 030500Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 441
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
405 PM MDT Thu Jul 2 2026
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of
Southeast Montana
Western North Dakota
Western South Dakota
Northeast Wyoming
* Effective this Thursday afternoon and evening from 405 PM until
1100 PM MDT.
* Primary threats include...
Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2.5
inches in diameter possible
Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible
A tornado or two possible
SUMMARY...Scattered severe thunderstorms will continue to develop
across the region into this evening, with large hail and
severe-caliber winds as the primary hazards.
The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 70
statute miles east and west of a line from 45 miles north northeast
of Baker MT to 10 miles south southwest of Rapid City SD. For a
complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline
update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU1).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.
&&
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 437...WW 438...WW
439...WW 440...
AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
2.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A
few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector
25025.
...Guyer
Read more
WW 0444 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0444 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET
Read more
WW 0443 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 443
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..BROYLES..07/03/26
ATTN...WFO...FSD...MPX...
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 443
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
IAC021-035-041-059-141-149-167-030540-
IA
. IOWA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BUENA VISTA CHEROKEE CLAY
DICKINSON O'BRIEN PLYMOUTH
SIOUX
MNC015-033-063-091-165-030540-
MN
. MINNESOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BROWN COTTONWOOD JACKSON
MARTIN WATONWAN
SDC009-023-027-053-127-135-030540-
SD
. SOUTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BON HOMME CHARLES MIX CLAY
GREGORY UNION YANKTON
Read more
WW 0442 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 442
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 W RSL TO
50 NNW GCK TO 40 NW GCK TO 40 ENE LAA TO 50 ENE SNY.
..BROYLES..07/03/26
ATTN...WFO...GLD...BOU...DDC...GID...LBF...
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 442
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
KSC023-039-063-065-071-109-137-147-153-163-179-181-193-199-203-
030540-
KS
. KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CHEYENNE DECATUR GOVE
GRAHAM GREELEY LOGAN
NORTON PHILLIPS RAWLINS
ROOKS SHERIDAN SHERMAN
THOMAS WALLACE WICHITA
NEC019-029-047-057-063-065-073-083-085-087-111-135-137-145-
030540-
NE
. NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BUFFALO CHASE DAWSON
DUNDY FRONTIER FURNAS
GOSPER HARLAN HAYES
HITCHCOCK LINCOLN PERKINS
PHELPS RED WILLOW
Read more
WW 0441 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 441
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SW RAP TO
20 W RAP TO 45 N RAP TO 35 SSE Y22 TO 10 ENE Y22 TO 30 NNW 2WX TO
10 SSE BHK TO 25 W BHK TO 30 N MLS.
..BROYLES..07/03/26
ATTN...WFO...BYZ...GGW...BIS...UNR...
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 441
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
MTC019-021-025-083-085-091-109-030540-
MT
. MONTANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
DANIELS DAWSON FALLON
RICHLAND ROOSEVELT SHERIDAN
WIBAUX
NDC001-007-011-013-023-025-033-041-053-061-087-089-105-030540-
ND
. NORTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ADAMS BILLINGS BOWMAN
BURKE DIVIDE DUNN
GOLDEN VALLEY HETTINGER MCKENZIE
MOUNTRAIL SLOPE STARK
WILLIAMS
SDC055-093-103-137-030540-
Read more
MD 1464 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PARTS OF SOUTHWEST NE AND NORTHEAST CO
Mesoscale Discussion 1464
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0226 AM CDT Fri Jul 03 2026
Areas affected...Parts of southwest NE and northeast CO
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 030726Z - 030930Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent
SUMMARY...Isolated hail and strong to locally severe gusts are
possible overnight.
DISCUSSION...A band of storms has intensified early this morning
from northeast CO into southwest NE. Model-based soundings suggest
that this activity is based around 700 mb, with intensifying
low-level southerly flow from the KGLD VWP indicative of a
strengthening warm-advection regime. Steep midlevel lapse rates and
MUCAPE of greater than 2000 J/kg will result in a hail threat with
the strongest updrafts, though modest deep-layer shear and a
generally linear storm mode may temper this potential to some
extent. Localized strong to severe gusts also cannot be ruled out,
given the presence of a relatively dry boundary layer and potential
for strong downdrafts.
Short-term guidance suggests that this band of storms will continue
to move north-northeastward with time, with an isolated severe
threat potentially spreading across the southern NE Panhandle and a
larger portion of southwest NE.
..Dean/Mosier.. 07/03/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...GID...LBF...GLD...BOU...CYS...
LAT...LON 40320402 40610380 41200351 41210236 41120049 40890009
40439990 40209994 40020055 40100121 40250187 40470256
40270370 40320402
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN
Read more
MD 1463 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 444... FOR NORTHEAST NE INTO WESTERN IA AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST SD
Mesoscale Discussion 1463
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0146 AM CDT Fri Jul 03 2026
Areas affected...Northeast NE into western IA and extreme southeast
SD
Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 444...
Valid 030646Z - 030815Z
The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 444
continues.
SUMMARY...Damaging wind and isolated hail remain possible overnight.
DISCUSSION...Persistent convection has remained relatively
disorganized thus far across parts of northeast NE into western IA.
However, some east-southeastward propagation has recently been noted
west of Sioux City, which may be an indication of expanding outflow
and a gradually strengthening cold pool. If this trend continues, a
somewhat more organized storm cluster may evolve and move along or
just north of a front draped across western IA, with some uptick in
damaging-wind potential. Otherwise, MUCAPE of above 2000 J/kg will
continue to support isolated hail potential with the strongest
embedded updrafts overnight.
..Dean.. 07/03/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...DMX...FSD...OAX...
LAT...LON 42919680 42759515 42589422 42399386 42139381 41809437
41749470 41649533 41609626 41699680 41869767 42379771
42569769 42919680
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN
Read more
SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1253 AM CDT Fri Jul 03 2026
Valid 031200Z - 041200Z
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL
NEBRASKA INTO WESTERN IOWA...
...SUMMARY...
Scattered wind damage and large hail are expected from parts of
Nebraska into Iowa Friday. Isolated to scattered severe storms are
also possible extending eastward from the northern/central Plains
into the Midwest, Tennessee Valley, and Mid-Atlantic.
...Synopsis...
The flow across the central US will modify today, becoming more
zonal as height rises begin across the southern Rockies. Upper-level
ridging will continue across the eastern US. A surface front will
extend across the northern High Plains into the Midwest and Upper
Great Lakes. Several clusters of thunderstorms are expected to
develop in the vicinity of this boundary. Additional scattered
thunderstorms will be possible across portions of the Northeast to
the Mid-Atlantic and across the Tennessee Valley and northern
Georgia.
...Northern/Central Plains...
Modest westerly flow will remain across the northern/central Plains
this afternoon, with a shortwave trough rotating through the flow
across the Dakotas into Minnesota by the evening. Scattered
thunderstorm activity is expected along and near a surface boundary
extending from the western Dakotas into the Upper Midwest. A
reservoir of moderate to strong instability will remain amid a plume
of steep low to mid-level lapse rates. Initially, a few supercells
are likely, particularly near the Black Hills in South Dakota and
across the central Dakotas. Deep layer shear around 30-40 kts and
aforementioned steep lapse rates will support potential for large to
very large hail. Eventual upscale growth into one or more bowing
clusters is expected towards the evening, especially as forcing for
ascent increases with the shortwave and increasing low-level jet in
the evening. Potential will also increase for a few significant
gusts 75+ mph, particularly across northeastern Nebraska into
western Iowa.
Additional isolated supercell development will be possible near the
surface trough and dry line from western Kansas into the
Oklahoma/Texas Panhandle. Forcing will be weaker in this region, but
a few instances of large hail and severe wind will be possible.
...Midwest to the Lower Great Lakes and portions of the
Northeast/Mid Atlantic...
Widely scattered thunderstorm activity will be possible across the
Midwest into the Great Lakes/Upper Ohio Valley in the vicinity of
residual outflow from overnight activity. Deep layer shear/flow will
be relatively weak but a moderately unstable and moist air mass will
support potential for a few clusters which produce swaths of
damaging wind.
A corridor of more favorable mid-level flow around 40-50 kts will
exist along the periphery of the ridge across the Northeast to the
northern Mid-Atlantic. Deep layer shear around 30-40 kts may support
one or more organized clusters with damaging wind potential into the
afternoon/early evening.
...TN Valley and northern GA...
Widely scattered thunderstorm activity is expected across portions
of the Tennessee Valley into northern Georgia this afternoon. Flow
across the region will be negligible but a very moist and unstable
air mass amid steep low to mid-level lapse rates will support
potential for wet downbursts.
..Thornton/Moore.. 07/03/2026
Read more
SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1233 AM CDT Fri Jul 03 2026
Valid 041200Z - 051200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY AFTERNOON
INTO SATURDAY NIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF THE OHIO VALLEY INTO MID
ATLANTIC AND ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS...
...SUMMARY...
Clusters of storms may evolve across parts of the Allegheny Plateau
into Mid Atlantic and across the central Great Plains Saturday
afternoon and evening, posing a risk for damaging wind gusts. Large
hail is also possible across the Great Plains
...Discussion...
Models indicate that a remnant mid-level high, now centered near or
just east the southern Appalachians, will become suppressed by the
beginning of this period. A new high may become a bit more
prominent upstream, near and to the lee of the southern Rockies,
with ridging also building to its northwest, from portions of the
eastern Great Basin through portions of the mid Missouri Valley. To
the east of this ridging, weak initially zonal flow may transition
to a broadly cyclonic regime across the Upper Midwest and lower
Missouri into Ohio Valleys. Stronger westerlies are likely to
remain confined to higher latitudes, but one embedded larger-scale
trough is forecast to dig across the Canadian Maritimes and New
England Saturday through Saturday night.
In lower levels, more substantive cooling/drying may overspread much
of northern New England during the day, and perhaps the Adirondacks
vicinity and portions of the upper Great Lakes by late Saturday
night. However, this may be preceded by a diffuse/weak front,
perhaps augmented by convective outflow is some locations, advancing
southward across the Mid Atlantic, Ohio and lower Missouri Valleys
and central Great Plains through the period.
Along and south of the lead front/convective outflow, a
boundary-layer characterized by seasonably high moisture content may
again become characterized by large potential instability with
daytime heating. This will probably become supportive of widely
scattered to scattered strong thunderstorm development posing at
least some severe weather risk. The magnitude/areal coverage of
this potential remains uncertain, and will largely be influenced by
sub-synoptic developments that are of low predictability at this
extended time frame, as evidenced by sizable model spread still
apparent in latest model output, including convection-allowing
guidance.
...Allegheny Plateau into Mid Atlantic...
Potential convective evolution remains uncertain, with forcing for
ascent to support thunderstorm development unclear. However, there
appears some general consensus in model output that at least
scattered thunderstorm development will initiate in response to
daytime boundary-layer destabilization across the Allegheny Plateau,
as mid-level heights subtly begin to fall. This is forecast to
develop eastward across the Mid Atlantic by early evening.
Given the degree of instability forecast, and possibly a belt of
convectively augmented flow (including 30-40 kt in the 850-500 mb
layer) spreading east-southeast of the lower Great Lakes/upper Ohio
Valley vicinity, there appears potential for one or two organizing
clusters capable of producing damaging wind gusts to evolve.
...Central Great Plains...
Given the possible general tendency for larger-scale mid-level
height rises across the Rockies and adjacent Great Plains, and
spread evident in model output, convective potential for this period
remains uncertain. However, lingering convectively generated or
augmented perturbations within evolving northwesterly mid-level flow
could support widely scattered strong to severe thunderstorm
development, including a few supercells by early Saturday evening.
This may be focused in moistening southeasterly low-level flow
across parts of northeastern Colorado and western Nebraska, and near
a zone of strengthening differential heating on the southwestern
flank of a stalled outflow boundary across western into central
Kansas.
Warm advection and convergence near the nose of a nocturnally
strengthening southerly low-level jet, with boundary-layer
decoupling across the Oklahoma/Texas Panhandle vicinity into
southwestern Kansas, seems to offer the best support for a possible
upscale growing cluster, which could maintain a risk for large hail
and strong to severe surface gusts into Saturday night.
..Kerr.. 07/03/2026
Read more
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1258 AM CDT Fri Jul 03 2026
Valid 031200Z - 041200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR EASTERN UTAH INTO WESTERN
COLORADO...
...Synopsis...
Another day of elevated to critical fire weather conditions is
expected across the greater Four Corners region. Early-morning
surface observations continue to show a very dry air mass in place
across the region with poor overnight RH recoveries as of 06 UTC.
This dry air mass will remain in place, especially as some degree of
subsidence overspreads AZ/NM in the wake of a low-amplitude
mid-level trough. Consequently, afternoon RH minimums will likely
fall into the single digits to low teens once again today.
The passage of the upper wave, coupled with modest zonal flow over
the central Rockies, will promote lee cyclogenesis across eastern
CO. The resulting mass response will yield a swath of 15-20 mph
winds across the Four Corners region. 7-day meteograms from eastern
UT and western CO depict sustained 15-20 mph winds with frequent
gusts between 20-30 mph in recent days under a similar synoptic
regime. Based on latest ensemble guidance, a repeat of these
conditions appears likely today and warrants maintaining Critical
highlights (especially given ongoing fire activity over the region).
...Dry Thunderstorms...
00 UTC RAOBs from LKN, SLC, and RIW all sampled steep mid-level
lapse rates and some degree of mid-level moisture across the
northern Great Basin. Further ascent/cooling is expected over the
next 12-24 hours as a mid-level wave overspreads the region. The
combination of mid-level cooling/moistening, low-level heating, and
PWAT values between 0.4 to 0.6 inches should result in thermodynamic
profiles favorable for dry thunderstorms. Recent fuel analyses
continue to show ERC values generally below the 80th percentile,
which suggests that fuels may not be overly receptive to lightning
starts. This, along with somewhat slow (10-15 knot) storm motions,
limits confidence in a more substantial dry-lightning threat.
..Moore.. 07/03/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0107 AM CDT Fri Jul 03 2026
Valid 041200Z - 051200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
...Synopsis...
Fire weather concerns will remain limited for Saturday compared to
previous days. A building upper-level ridge across the
Southwest/Four Corners will maintain very dry conditions across UT
and CO with another day of single-digit RH minimums likely. However,
this will also act to limit the intensity of the lee cyclone over
the southern/central High Plains and displace it further east across
KS compared to previous days. Consequently, the mass response over
the Four Corners will be weaker, limiting the potential for
sustained elevated/critical wind speeds. While localized elevated
conditions are possible across the greater Four Corners region
(particularly across NM), such conditions will likely be fairly
transient and confined to local terrain features.
...Dry Thunderstorms...
An influx of Pacific moisture is expected across AZ and western NM
through the day Saturday. Steep lapse rates will likely accompany
the leading edge of the returning moisture and may support pockets
of sufficient buoyancy for transient thunderstorms across far
eastern AZ and into western/central NM. While this potential is
noted, confidence is very limited owing to considerable spread among
recent guidance regarding thunderstorm development and coverage.
However, if convection can develop some dry-lightning threat will
likely materialize given antecedent dry boundary-layer conditions.
..Moore.. 07/03/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
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