RSS Mesoscale Discussions from Storm Prediction Center
WW 264 SEVERE TSTM GA 012030Z - 020200Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 264
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
430 PM EDT Mon Jun 1 2026
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of
West-Central Georgia
* Effective this Monday afternoon and evening from 430 PM until
1000 PM EDT.
* Primary threats include...
Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible
Isolated large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible
SUMMARY...A line of strong to occasionally severe thunderstorms is
moving southeastward across central Alabama. This line is expected
to continue southeastward through west-central Georgia this
afternoon and evening, with a continued risk for damaging wind
gusts.
The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 40
statute miles east and west of a line from 20 miles west northwest
of Atlanta GA to 50 miles south southwest of Macon GA. For a
complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline
update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU4).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.
&&
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 261...WW 262...WW 263...
AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A
few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector
31030.
...Mosier
Read more
WW 263 SEVERE TSTM AR MO 011915Z - 020200Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 263
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
215 PM CDT Mon Jun 1 2026
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of
Northern and Central Arkansas
Far Southern Missouri
* Effective this Monday afternoon and evening from 215 PM until
900 PM CDT.
* Primary threats include...
Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely
Scattered large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible
SUMMARY...Thunderstorm coverage and intensity is expected to
increase this afternoon into this evening from southern Missouri
into central Arkansas. A very warm, moist, and unstable airmass is
in place, supporting the potential for robust updrafts capable of
damaging gusts and isolated hail.
The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 70
statute miles north and south of a line from 10 miles west of
Fayetteville AR to 95 miles southeast of Batesville AR. For a
complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline
update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU3).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.
&&
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 261...WW 262...
AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A
few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector
30025.
...Mosier
Read more
WW 262 SEVERE TSTM CO NE WY 011850Z - 020200Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 262
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1250 PM MDT Mon Jun 1 2026
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of
Eastern Colorado
Nebraska Panhandle
Southeast Wyoming
* Effective this Monday afternoon and evening from 1250 PM until
800 PM MDT.
* Primary threats include...
Scattered damaging winds and isolated significant gusts to 75
mph possible
Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2.5
inches in diameter possible
A tornado or two possible
SUMMARY...Thunderstorm development is ongoing across the higher
terrain of the central Rockies, with movement downstream into the
foothill expected shortly. Further eastward development into more of
the central High Plains is anticipated over the next several hours.
Environmental conditions favor supercells capable of large hail and
damaging gusts. Some isolated very large hail and significant severe
gusts are also possible. A low-probability tornado risk exists
across northeast Colorado as well.
The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 85
statute miles east and west of a line from 40 miles north northeast
of Torrington WY to 50 miles south of Limon CO. For a complete
depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update
(WOUS64 KWNS WOU2).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.
&&
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 261...
AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
2.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 65 knots. A
few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector
24025.
...Mosier
Read more
WW 261 SEVERE TSTM AL MS TN 011625Z - 020000Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 261
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1125 AM CDT Mon Jun 1 2026
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of
Northern Alabama
Northern Mississippi
Southwestern Tennessee
* Effective this Monday morning and evening from 1125 AM until
700 PM CDT.
* Primary threats include...
Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible
Isolated large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible
SUMMARY...A very warm, moist, and unstable airmass is in place from
the Mid-South into the Southeast States. Thunderstorm development is
ongoing along an outflow boundary in southwest/southern Middle TN,
with additional development ahead of this outflow possible as well.
Very strong buoyancy will support robust updraft/downdraft cycles
capable of damaging gusts and isolated hail throughout the afternoon
and into the evening.
The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 65
statute miles north and south of a line from 30 miles northwest of
Oxford MS to 30 miles northeast of Anniston AL. For a complete
depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update
(WOUS64 KWNS WOU1).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.
&&
AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A
few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector
30030.
...Mosier
Read more
WW 0264 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0264 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET
Read more
WW 0263 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 263
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..THORNTON..06/01/26
ATTN...WFO...LZK...TSA...MEG...SGF...
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 263
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ARC001-005-007-009-015-023-029-031-033-035-037-045-047-049-051-
055-063-065-067-069-071-075-077-083-085-087-089-095-101-105-107-
111-115-117-119-121-123-125-129-131-135-137-141-143-145-147-149-
012140-
AR
. ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ARKANSAS BAXTER BENTON
BOONE CARROLL CLEBURNE
CONWAY CRAIGHEAD CRAWFORD
CRITTENDEN CROSS FAULKNER
FRANKLIN FULTON GARLAND
GREENE INDEPENDENCE IZARD
JACKSON JEFFERSON JOHNSON
LAWRENCE LEE LOGAN
LONOKE MADISON MARION
MONROE NEWTON PERRY
PHILLIPS POINSETT POPE
PRAIRIE PULASKI RANDOLPH
ST. FRANCIS SALINE SEARCY
SEBASTIAN SHARP STONE
VAN BUREN WASHINGTON WHITE
WOODRUFF YELL
Read more
WW 0262 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0262 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET
Read more
WW 0261 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 261
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 WSW MEM
TO 25 NNE TUP TO 20 SE CBM TO 20 SSW RMG.
..THORNTON..06/01/26
ATTN...WFO...BMX...HUN...MEG...JAN...
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 261
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ALC001-007-015-017-021-027-029-037-047-051-063-065-073-081-085-
087-091-101-105-107-111-115-117-119-121-123-125-012140-
AL
. ALABAMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
AUTAUGA BIBB CALHOUN
CHAMBERS CHILTON CLAY
CLEBURNE COOSA DALLAS
ELMORE GREENE HALE
JEFFERSON LEE LOWNDES
MACON MARENGO MONTGOMERY
PERRY PICKENS RANDOLPH
ST. CLAIR SHELBY SUMTER
TALLADEGA TALLAPOOSA TUSCALOOSA
MSC013-017-025-027-033-043-071-081-087-093-095-103-105-107-115-
119-135-137-143-145-155-161-012140-
MS
. MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CALHOUN CHICKASAW CLAY
COAHOMA DESOTO GRENADA
Read more
MD 0938 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY FOR WEST-CENTRAL GEORGIA
Mesoscale Discussion 0938
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0325 PM CDT Mon Jun 01 2026
Areas affected...west-central Georgia
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely
Valid 012025Z - 012130Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent
SUMMARY...Thunderstorm activity to expand into west-central Georgia
this afternoon with potential for damaging winds.
DISCUSSION...A line of thunderstorms continues to move southeast
across central Alabama this afternoon. Guidance from the 18z HRRR
suggests storms will expand into western Georgia over the next
couple of hours. MLCAPE is slowly increasing across the area, with
around 1500-2500 J/kg from west-central to southern Georgia amid
steep low-level lapse rates. This will support potential for strong
to severe winds through the afternoon/evening. A watch will be
needed to cover this potential soon.
..Thornton.. 06/01/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...FFC...BMX...
LAT...LON 33758537 33608489 33368428 33098372 32808349 32458366
32258421 32398499 32748515 33298531 33508534 33758537
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN
Read more
MD 0937 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 261... FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL ALABAMA AND WEST-CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI
Mesoscale Discussion 0937
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0218 PM CDT Mon Jun 01 2026
Areas affected...portions of central Alabama and west-central
Mississippi
Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 261...
Valid 011918Z - 012115Z
The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 261
continues.
SUMMARY...Severe threat continues within WW261. Local watch
extension may be needed as storms continue southward.
DISCUSSION...A line of storms continues south and east across
portions of northern/central Alabama into western Mississippi this
afternoon, producing gusts generally 45-50 mph. This line of storms
is moving along a gradient of higher instability that extends across
central Alabama into Mississippi, with additional development on the
western flank of the southward moving outflow in western
Mississippi. Ahead of the line of storms, the downstream air mass
remains favorably hot and unstable. Guidance suggests that the
damaging wind threat may extend further downstream into portions of
central Mississippi and Alabama. Local extension may be needed to
WW261 to cover this potential.
..Thornton.. 06/01/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...BMX...HUN...MEG...JAN...
LAT...LON 33918930 34238830 34498649 34478583 34108552 33648547
33038550 32768608 32708696 32708795 32748865 32818922
32988951 33558952 33918930
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN
Read more
SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1129 AM CDT Mon Jun 01 2026
Valid 011630Z - 021200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS/CENTRAL PLAINS...AND FROM THE MID-SOUTH INTO THE
TN VALLEY...
...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms with large hail and severe wind gusts are expected
this afternoon and evening across parts of the central Plains.
Scattered to numerous strong to severe wind gusts will also be
possible from the Ozarks southeastward into parts of the Southeast.
...Mid-South into the Southeast...
An MCS is currently progressing generally southeastward, with
preceding outflow arcing from southeast MO through far northwest TN.
Some brief intensification was noted along this outflow, although
updraft strength continues to be somewhat transient. General
expectation is for this pattern of brief intensification to continue
for the next hour or two, before building instability along the
western edge of the outflow results in updraft/downdraft cycles
strong enough to produce strong to severe gusts. However, given
limited deep-layer shear, overall updraft organization will likely
remain transient.
Additional new development is anticipated farther west during the
afternoon from south-central MO into northern AR (and perhaps
western TN and northern MS). Dewpoints in the 70s amid afternoon
high temperatures in the upper 80s/low 90s will support very strong
buoyancy, with MLCAPE values around 4000 J/kg. This buoyancy will
support robust updrafts, but weak shear will limit storm
organization, contributing to an outflow-dominant, multicellular
mode. Even with limited organization, the updraft/downdraft cycles
should be strong enough for widespread strong/severe storms capable
of damaging wind gusts and some isolated hail.
The storms, whether with the ongoing cluster or newer development
farther west, may spread as far south as central MS/AL during the
evening before weakening.
...High Plains...
Morning surface analysis placed a low over southeast CO, with moist
easterly/southeasterly flow throughout the eastern and northern
periphery of this low. Associated low-level moisture advection is
anticipated throughout the day, but strong boundary-layer mixing is
expected to result in afternoon dewpoints in the upper 40s/low 50s.
Even so, this modest low-level moisture beneath steep mid-level
lapse rates will foster moderate buoyancy, with MLCAPE likely around
1000-1500 J/kg this afternoon. Scattered thunderstorm development is
anticipated from southeast WY into the foothills of central CO by
mid-afternoon. Sufficient deep-layer shear should support supercells
capable of large to isolated very large hail early in the convective
cycle, but a trend towards a more outflow-dominant structure leads
to bowing segments capable of strong to severe gusts. Isolated gusts
over 65 kt are possible. Some upscale growth into an organized MCS
is possible with one or more of these bowing segments this evening
as the low-level jet increases and the clusters encounter greater
low-level moisture.
Isolated damaging gusts are also possible with any development along
the dryline in TX.
..Mosier/Weinman.. 06/01/2026
Read more
SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0300 PM CDT Mon Jun 01 2026
Valid 012000Z - 021200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND THE SOUTHEAST...
...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms with large hail and severe wind gusts are still
expected this afternoon and evening across parts of the central
Plains. Scattered to numerous strong to severe wind gusts are also
likely from the Ozarks southeastward into parts of the Southeast.
...20Z Update...
The previous forecast (see below) remains generally on track. A
relatively more organized cold-pool-driven MCS is continuing to
track south-southeastward across eastern MS into central AL, with a
history of damaging gusts. This MCS should continue to traverse a
diffuse buoyancy axis and produce additional damaging gusts through
the afternoon, though weakening should eventually occur as the MCS
propagates away from the relatively stronger deep-layer shear. Over
the next few hours, strong to severe thunderstorms currently over
southern MO should congeal into another cold-pool-driven MCS and
drift southward into strong buoyancy, characterized by over 4000
J/kg MLCAPE. Deep-layer shear is rather poor across the mid-MS
Valley. However, the strong to locally extreme buoyancy should
compensate to support multiple damaging gusts. The next cold-pool
driven MCS in the series should develop from ongoing severe hail
producing supercells across the central High Plains, which are
poised to grow upscale later this evening. Once an MCS develops, a
swath of severe gusts is likely, especially across western into
central KS.
..Squitieri.. 06/01/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1129 AM CDT Mon Jun 01 2026/
...Mid-South into the Southeast...
An MCS is currently progressing generally southeastward, with
preceding outflow arcing from southeast MO through far northwest TN.
Some brief intensification was noted along this outflow, although
updraft strength continues to be somewhat transient. General
expectation is for this pattern of brief intensification to continue
for the next hour or two, before building instability along the
western edge of the outflow results in updraft/downdraft cycles
strong enough to produce strong to severe gusts. However, given
limited deep-layer shear, overall updraft organization will likely
remain transient.
Additional new development is anticipated farther west during the
afternoon from south-central MO into northern AR (and perhaps
western TN and northern MS). Dewpoints in the 70s amid afternoon
high temperatures in the upper 80s/low 90s will support very strong
buoyancy, with MLCAPE values around 4000 J/kg. This buoyancy will
support robust updrafts, but weak shear will limit storm
organization, contributing to an outflow-dominant, multicellular
mode. Even with limited organization, the updraft/downdraft cycles
should be strong enough for widespread strong/severe storms capable
of damaging wind gusts and some isolated hail.
The storms, whether with the ongoing cluster or newer development
farther west, may spread as far south as central MS/AL during the
evening before weakening.
...High Plains...
Morning surface analysis placed a low over southeast CO, with moist
easterly/southeasterly flow throughout the eastern and northern
periphery of this low. Associated low-level moisture advection is
anticipated throughout the day, but strong boundary-layer mixing is
expected to result in afternoon dewpoints in the upper 40s/low 50s.
Even so, this modest low-level moisture beneath steep mid-level
lapse rates will foster moderate buoyancy, with MLCAPE likely around
1000-1500 J/kg this afternoon. Scattered thunderstorm development is
anticipated from southeast WY into the foothills of central CO by
mid-afternoon. Sufficient deep-layer shear should support supercells
capable of large to isolated very large hail early in the convective
cycle, but a trend towards a more outflow-dominant structure leads
to bowing segments capable of strong to severe gusts. Isolated gusts
over 65 kt are possible. Some upscale growth into an organized MCS
is possible with one or more of these bowing segments this evening
as the low-level jet increases and the clusters encounter greater
low-level moisture.
Isolated damaging gusts are also possible with any development along
the dryline in TX.
Read more
SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1228 PM CDT Mon Jun 01 2026
Valid 021200Z - 031200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS...
...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms with large hail, severe wind gusts and potentially an
isolated tornado threat are expected on Tuesday afternoon and
evening in parts of the northern Plains. Strong wind gusts and
marginal hail will also be possible in parts of the southern and
central High Plains. A few severe wind gusts may also occur from
southern Georgia into northern and eastern Florida.
...Northern Plains...
A slow-moving upper low will exist from northern MT into southern
SK, with a belt of 30-40 kt southwesterlies at 500 mb from eastern
MT/WY into the Dakotas. Meanwhile, a surface trough and weak front
will develop from central WY into western ND by 00Z. Cool
temperatures aloft with the upper trough combined with daytime
heating and persistent southerly winds/moisture advection will yield
moderate instability ahead of the front. Effective shear in excess
of 40 kt and steep lapse rates aloft will support cells capable of
damaging hail. Low-level winds will not be particularly strong, but
some increase in the low-level jet will occur after 00Z and may
support MCS potential during the evening with areas of damaging
winds. A couple tornadoes may occur as well, perhaps over eastern WY
with the initial activity, or into ND where temp/dewpoint
depressions may be less.
...Central to Southern High Plains...
Although a weak surface ridge will exist over the region,
temperatures aloft will remain relatively cool with -10 C at 500 mb
as far south as NM and OK. Easterly surface winds will maintain a
moist air mass into KS/CO, with southeasterly winds into NM.
Scattered storms are likely after 21Z along the Front Range and
extending south across central and eastern NM, and some of this
activity will persist into southwest NE, western KS and the OK/TX
Panhandles late. Locally damaging gusts appear most likely as shear
will remain weak.
Isolated cells may also develop near the dryline during the
afternoon from southwest KS into western OK, with localize wind and
hail potential.
...Far southern GA and AL into northern FL...
An upper trough will dive southeastward across the Mid Atlantic and
into the Southeast with a cold front pushing south across GA and
into AL during the day and into northern FL late. A moist air mass
will exist ahead of the front, with MUCAPE at or above 2000 J/kg.
Storms will develop along the front as the air mass heats, with
increasing storm coverage. Deep-layer shear may be sufficient for a
few embedded cells, with both wind and marginal hail potential as
they move southeastward from southern GA into northern FL including
the Jacksonville area. Additional storms are likely over the eastern
FL Peninsula where westerly surface winds will enhance convergence,
with strong downbursts and perhaps marginal hail.
..Jewell.. 06/01/2026
Read more
SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0224 PM CDT Mon Jun 01 2026
Valid 031200Z - 041200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY OVER PARTS
OF THE DAKOTAS...
...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms with large hail and severe wind gusts will be possible
Wednesday in parts of the northern Plains, with widely scattered
strong wind gusts or marginal hail over parts of the central High
Plains.
...Northern Plains...
Slight cooling aloft will occur over ND into northern MN as a
shortwave trough slowly moves east across the area. Midlevel winds
of 35-45 kt are forecast, resulting in deep-layer shear of 30-40 kt
as southerly winds of 30 kt develop at 850 mb. A cold front will
move into eastern ND and central SD during the afternoon, providing
a focus for storm development. MUCAPE may average around 1500 J/kg
with low 60s F dewpoints, though models disagree on this. Some
forecast soundings appear favorable for a supercells with good mid
to high level flow and increasing evening SRH, especially across the
Red River Valley and into northwest MN.
...Central Plains and into NM...
A moist and unstable air mass will remain over much of the central
and southern Plains as well as into NM. Shear will be weak, but the
air mass will be uncapped over this entire area as temperatures
aloft will remain relatively cool. As such, scattered areas of
thunderstorms will occur during the afternoon along the length of
the High Plains, with localized wind or hail. Moisture will push
westward across NM as well, again with isolated strong gusts or
small hail.
..Jewell.. 06/01/2026
Read more
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1141 AM CDT Mon Jun 01 2026
Valid 011700Z - 021200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
The forecast remains on track, see the previous discussion for more
information.
..Elizalde-Garcia.. 06/01/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0123 AM CDT Mon Jun 01 2026/
...Synopsis...
Fire weather concerns will remain limited for today across the
country. Early-morning surface observations continue to show a very
dry air mass across eastern AZ to central NM where fuels have been
slowly curing. Modest southwesterly flow aloft will persist across
the central Rockies, and will promote weak surface pressure falls
along the High Plains. Consequently, flow across the
Southwest/southern Rockies will remain fairly weak again today with
only localized areas where winds will exceed 15 mph (most likely in
terrain-prone regions of northern NM). As such, the potential for
widespread fire weather concerns will remain limited. Similarly,
anomalously dry conditions will continue across the Great Lakes
region for today, but building surface high pressure will modulate
wind speeds and the overall fire weather threat.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0228 PM CDT Mon Jun 01 2026
Valid 021200Z - 031200Z
...Afternoon Update...
Only minor adjustments were made to the Isolated Dry Thunder risk
area based on recent guidance. Increasing mid-level moisture
alongside afternoon heating and resultant instability will promote
isolated showers and thunderstorms, maintaining a threat of some
lightning ignitions across western NM, far southwestern CO, and
east-central AZ. Owing to antecedent weather conditions aiding in
curing the landscape, fuels are expected to be receptive and
conducive to fire spread as storms produce localized erratic wind
gusts with little accumulating precipitation (<0.25").
..Elizalde-Garcia.. 06/01/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0125 AM CDT Mon Jun 01 2026/
...Synopsis...
Fire weather concerns for Tuesday will primarily be associated with
dry lightning potential across parts of far eastern Arizona and
western New Mexico. A weak upper wave is evident off the Baja CA
coast that will migrate east towards the Southwest over the next 24
hours. Weak pressure falls across the interior West will promote
eastward low-level moisture transport into the southern Rockies. The
western periphery of the moist plume should spread into eastern AZ
by Tuesday afternoon with PWAT values on the order of 0.4 to 0.5
inch. While modest, this will provide sufficient buoyancy to support
isolated thunderstorms as weak ascent overspreads the region ahead
of the approaching wave. A deeply mixed boundary layer and 15-20
knot storm motions will help limit rainfall amounts and support the
potential for dry lightning strikes over a region with receptive
fine fuels after several days of warm and dry conditions.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
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