RSS Mesoscale Discussions from Storm Prediction Center
WW 131 TORNADO IL MO LM 172030Z - 180400Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Tornado Watch Number 131
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
330 PM CDT Fri Apr 17 2026
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Tornado Watch for portions of
Central and Northeast Illinois
Northeast Missouri
Lake Michigan
* Effective this Friday afternoon and evening from 330 PM until
1100 PM CDT.
* Primary threats include...
A couple tornadoes possible
Widespread damaging winds likely with isolated significant gusts
to 75 mph possible
Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2.5
inches in diameter possible
SUMMARY...Thunderstorms have intensified across northeast MO, with
some additional intensification possible as they continued
northeastward into central IL. The airmass across the region
supports supercells capable of all severe hazards, including very
large hail and tornadoes. Another round of storms will follow in the
wake of the ongoing storms later this evening as a cold front moves
across the region. Wind gusts will be the primary risk with the
storms along the front, but line-embedded circulations are possible
as well.
The tornado watch area is approximately along and 75 statute miles
east and west of a line from 50 miles west northwest of Valparaiso
IN to 30 miles southeast of Jefferson City MO. For a complete
depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update
(WOUS64 KWNS WOU1).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for
tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch
area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for
threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements
and possible warnings.
&&
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 128...WW 129...WW 130...
AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail
surface and aloft to 2.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind
gusts to 65 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean
storm motion vector 27030.
...Mosier
Read more
WW 130 TORNADO KS MO OK 171835Z - 180200Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Tornado Watch Number 130
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
135 PM CDT Fri Apr 17 2026
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Tornado Watch for portions of
South-Central and Eastern Kansas
Northern and West-Central Missouri
Northern and Western Oklahoma
* Effective this Friday afternoon and evening from 135 PM until
900 PM CDT.
* Primary threats include...
A few tornadoes likely with a couple intense tornadoes possible
Widespread damaging winds and isolated significant gusts to 85
mph likely
Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 4
inches in diameter likely
SUMMARY...Thunderstorm development is underway along a southeastward
progressing cold front that extends from northwest Missouri into
northwest Oklahoma. The environment ahead of this front is very
unstable and strongly sheared, and capable of supporting robust
supercells. All hazards are possible with these supercells,
including very large to giant hail (3 to 4" in diameter), strong
wind gusts, and tornadoes. A transition from hail as the primary
risk to strong gusts is anticipated as storm undergo upscale growth
into a robust convective line. Gusts from 70 to 80 mph will be
possible within this line, which is expected to move from
south-central Kansas into central Missouri.
The tornado watch area is approximately along and 80 statute miles
east and west of a line from 45 miles north northwest of Chillicothe
MO to 25 miles south of Enid OK. For a complete depiction of the
watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU0).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for
tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch
area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for
threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements
and possible warnings.
&&
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 128...WW 129...
AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail
surface and aloft to 4 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind
gusts to 75 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean
storm motion vector 27030.
...Mosier
Read more
WW 129 TORNADO IA IL MN MO WI 171740Z - 180100Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Tornado Watch Number 129
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1240 PM CDT Fri Apr 17 2026
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Tornado Watch for portions of
Central and Eastern Iowa
Northern and West-Central Illinois
Southeast Minnesota
Far Northeast Missouri
Central and Southern Wisconsin
* Effective this Friday afternoon and evening from 1240 PM until
800 PM CDT.
* Primary threats include...
A few tornadoes likely with a couple intense tornadoes possible
Widespread large hail and isolated very large hail events to 3.5
inches in diameter likely
Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely
SUMMARY...A very moist and unstable airmass exists ahead of a cold
front progressing eastward/southeastward across the region.
Thunderstorm development is anticipated within the warm sector ahead
of the front, where discrete supercells capable of all severe
hazards, including very large hail and strong to intense tornadoes,
are possible. Thunderstorm development is possible along the front
as well, with large hail and strong gusts the primary risk with
these storms.
The tornado watch area is approximately along and 110 statute miles
north and south of a line from 55 miles north northwest of Des
Moines IA to 55 miles east of Madison WI. For a complete depiction
of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS
WOU9).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for
tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch
area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for
threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements
and possible warnings.
&&
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 128...
AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail
surface and aloft to 3.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind
gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean
storm motion vector 26035.
...Mosier
Read more
WW 128 SEVERE TSTM MN WI 171420Z - 172200Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 128
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
920 AM CDT Fri Apr 17 2026
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of
East-Central and Far Southeast Minnesota
Northwest and North-Central Wisconsin
* Effective this Friday morning and afternoon from 920 AM until
500 PM CDT.
* Primary threats include...
Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2
inches in diameter possible
Isolated damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible
SUMMARY...Ongoing line of thunderstorms over southeast MN is
forecast to continue northeastward. The overall environment ahead of
this line is expected to become more supportive of strong to severe
storms with time. Additional thunderstorm development is anticipated
as well. Large hail is the primary severe risk, although isolated
strong gusts are possible as well.
The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 75
statute miles east and west of a line from 105 miles north of Eau
Claire WI to 10 miles east of La Crosse WI. For a complete depiction
of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS
WOU8).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.
&&
AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A
few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector
24030.
...Mosier
Read more
WW 0131 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 131
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0480
..MOORE..04/17/26
ATTN...WFO...LSX...ILX...LOT...
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 131
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ILC001-005-009-013-017-021-027-031-039-043-051-053-057-061-063-
075-083-089-091-093-095-097-105-107-113-115-117-119-121-123-125-
129-133-135-137-143-149-163-167-169-171-173-175-179-189-197-203-
172340-
IL
. ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ADAMS BOND BROWN
CALHOUN CASS CHRISTIAN
CLINTON COOK DE WITT
DUPAGE FAYETTE FORD
FULTON GREENE GRUNDY
IROQUOIS JERSEY KANE
KANKAKEE KENDALL KNOX
LAKE LIVINGSTON LOGAN
MCLEAN MACON MACOUPIN
MADISON MARION MARSHALL
MASON MENARD MONROE
MONTGOMERY MORGAN PEORIA
PIKE ST. CLAIR SANGAMON
SCHUYLER SCOTT SHELBY
STARK TAZEWELL WASHINGTON
WILL WOODFORD
Read more
WW 0130 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 130
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SSE P28
TO 40 SSW EMP TO 30 NE EMP TO 5 WSW CDJ TO 40 NW IRK.
..KERR..04/17/26
ATTN...WFO...ICT...TOP...EAX...DDC...SGF...OUN...TSA...
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 130
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
KSC001-003-011-019-021-031-035-037-049-059-073-091-099-107-121-
125-133-191-205-207-209-172340-
KS
. KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ALLEN ANDERSON BOURBON
CHAUTAUQUA CHEROKEE COFFEY
COWLEY CRAWFORD ELK
FRANKLIN GREENWOOD JOHNSON
LABETTE LINN MIAMI
MONTGOMERY NEOSHO SUMNER
WILSON WOODSON WYANDOTTE
MOC001-011-013-015-025-029-033-037-039-041-047-053-079-083-085-
089-095-101-107-115-117-121-125-131-141-159-171-175-177-185-195-
197-211-217-172340-
MO
. MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ADAIR BARTON BATES
BENTON CALDWELL CAMDEN
CARROLL CASS CEDAR
Read more
WW 0129 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 129
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 NW IRK TO
30 SSE OTM TO 25 SE CID TO 20 ENE EAU.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0480
..MOORE..04/17/26
ATTN...WFO...ARX...DMX...DVN...LOT...MPX...GRB...MKX...
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 129
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ILC007-011-015-037-067-071-073-085-099-103-109-111-131-141-155-
161-177-187-195-201-172340-
IL
. ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BOONE BUREAU CARROLL
DE KALB HANCOCK HENDERSON
HENRY JO DAVIESS LA SALLE
LEE MCDONOUGH MCHENRY
MERCER OGLE PUTNAM
ROCK ISLAND STEPHENSON WARREN
WHITESIDE WINNEBAGO
IAC031-043-045-057-061-087-097-105-111-115-139-163-177-172340-
IA
. IOWA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CEDAR CLAYTON CLINTON
DES MOINES DUBUQUE HENRY
JACKSON JONES LEE
Read more
WW 0128 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 128
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SW LSE TO
10 WNW EAU TO 60 NNW EAU TO 25 E DLH.
..WENDT..04/17/26
ATTN...WFO...MPX...ARX...DLH...GRB...
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 128
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
WIC003-005-007-017-051-069-085-099-107-113-119-125-129-172240-
WI
. WISCONSIN COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ASHLAND BARRON BAYFIELD
CHIPPEWA IRON LINCOLN
ONEIDA PRICE RUSK
SAWYER TAYLOR VILAS
WASHBURN
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
Read more
MD 0483 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 130... FOR NORTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA INTO SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS
Mesoscale Discussion 0483
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0538 PM CDT Fri Apr 17 2026
Areas affected...northwestern Oklahoma into south central Kansas
Concerning...Tornado Watch 130...
Valid 172238Z - 180045Z
The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 130 continues.
SUMMARY...Strong thunderstorm development may continue to pose a
risk for large hail and locally strong surface gusts into the 7-9 PM
CDT time frame.
DISCUSSION...Convection has evolved into a broken band with embedded
supercells, which now appears rooted above the shallow leading edge
of a southward advancing cold front. While the deeper cold air and
more notable surface pressure rises are still well to the northwest,
and it may still be several hours before a more notable southward
progression of the convection occurs, convective outflow is
reinforcing the stable air beneath the stronger convection. Even
so, elevated inflow of moist air characterized by moderate to large
CAPE, in the presence of strong cloud-bearing shear, may maintain
vigorous thunderstorm development with potential to produce large
hail, and perhaps locally strong surface gusts, into early evening.
..Kerr.. 04/17/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...TSA...ICT...OUN...
LAT...LON 36299905 36799811 37439697 37409585 36839633 35999822
35879908 36299905
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN
Read more
MD 0482 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 130...131... FOR PARTS OF CENTRAL THROUGH SOUTHWESTERN MISSOURI...ADJACENT SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS AND NORTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA
Mesoscale Discussion 0482
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0510 PM CDT Fri Apr 17 2026
Areas affected...parts of central through southwestern
Missouri...adjacent southeastern Kansas and northeastern Oklahoma
Concerning...Tornado Watch 130...131...
Valid 172210Z - 180015Z
The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 130, 131 continues.
SUMMARY...Potential for damaging surface gusts and perhaps brief
tornadoes may increase through 6-8 PM CDT across the Missouri Ozarks
and much of central Missouri. Additional counties between Tornado
Watches 130 and 131 will need to be added Tornado Watch 130.
DISCUSSION...Although a trailing line of storms may tend to become
increasingly undercut by the southeastward advancing cold front, a
cluster of storms east/northeast of Chanute is now evolving just
ahead of the front. This appears to be aided by forcing for ascent
associated with a mid/upper subtropical perturbation/jet streak
which is forecast to overspread the Missouri Ozarks through much of
central Missouri into early evening. Embedded within sheared 30-50
kt southwesterly deep layer mean flow, and preceded by a moist
boundary-layer that appears characterized by CAPE up to 2000 J/kg,
there appears potential for considerable further upscale growth and
organization, which probably will outpace the eastward advancement
of the cold front.
Gradually, this may be accompanied by a developing meso-beta to
alpha scale cyclonic circulation and related strengthening of
mid-level rear inflow. As this mixes to the surface, potential for
damaging wind gusts will increase, with strongest gusts and/or brief
tornadoes focused with evolving mesovortices along the gust front.
..Kerr.. 04/17/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...LSX...SGF...EAX...TSA...ICT...
LAT...LON 39699330 39189140 37739229 36599499 37449544 37829496
38929427 39699330
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN
Read more
MD 0481 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 129... FOR CENTRAL TO NORTHERN WISCONSIN
Mesoscale Discussion 0481
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0506 PM CDT Fri Apr 17 2026
Areas affected...Central to northern Wisconsin
Concerning...Tornado Watch 129...
Valid 172206Z - 180000Z
The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 129 continues.
SUMMARY...A cluster of severe thunderstorms ahead of the primary
cold front will continue to pose a tornado threat for the next
couple of hours across central to northern Wisconsin. Additional
northward expansion may be needed.
DISCUSSION...A cluster of discrete to semi-discrete cells continues
to track across central to northern WI with at least two tornadoes
recently reported. Recent convective trends do not suggest that
upscale growth is imminent within the next hour or two.
Additionally, the downstream convective environment continues to
gradually improve given strengthening low-level flow (0-1 km winds
and SRH have both been strengthening off the KGRB VWP) and some
modest improvement in low-level moisture immediately ahead of the
approaching cold front. Recent mesoanalysis estimates STP values are
generally between 1-2, and should remain within this range for at
least the next 1-2 hours. Consequently, intense supercells will
continue to be possible within this corridor in the short term, and
will likely pose a threat for large hail and strong tornadoes.
Additional northward expansion of WW 129 may be needed if supercells
can maintain intensity and adequate northward moisture return can
occur.
..Moore.. 04/17/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...GRB...DLH...ARX...
LAT...LON 44199082 44429097 44759082 45818952 45958917 45908867
45738836 45548820 45228806 44868832 44018939 43948995
44029050 44199082
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...140-170 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN
Read more
MD 0480 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 129...131... FOR SOUTHERN WISCONSIN AND FAR NORTHERN ILLINOIS
Mesoscale Discussion 0480
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0442 PM CDT Fri Apr 17 2026
Areas affected...Southern Wisconsin and far northern Illinois
Concerning...Tornado Watch 129...131...
Valid 172142Z - 172345Z
The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 129, 131 continues.
SUMMARY...Leading supercells across northern Illinois and southern
Wisconsin will likely pose a tornado (possibly significant) and very
large hail threat as they move downstream over the next 1-2 hours.
DISCUSSION...A pair of leading supercells continues to precede a
broken line of storms along the IL/WI border. Regional radar imagery
continues to indicate that these cells are rather intense with a
three-body scatter spike, a bounded weak echo region, and a recent
3-inch hail report noted with the southern storm. An improving
downstream convective environment is noted in recent observations
and analyses (0-1 km SRH values remain between 200-250 m2/s2 per the
KMKX VWP, and STP values have recently increased to 2-3 per recent
mesoanalysis). Additionally, the southern storm will also likely
propagate along a subtle surface theta-e gradient draped across
northern IL to southern WI. Given these trends and the presence of a
well-established updraft/mesocyclone with the southern cell, the
potential for very large hail (likely in excess of 2 inches) and
strong tornadoes will likely persist for the next couple of hours
downstream into southeast WI and far northern IL.
..Moore.. 04/17/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...LOT...MKX...DVN...
LAT...LON 42138771 42158906 42268948 42378957 42608965 42798955
42968903 43188791 43108770 42848764 42588767 42138771
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...140-170 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...2.75-4.25 IN
Read more
SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0253 PM CDT Fri Apr 17 2026
Valid 172000Z - 181200Z
...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM FAR
NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA THROUGH CENTRAL AND EASTERN KANSAS INTO
WEST-CENTRAL MISSOURI...
...SUMMARY...
Numerous severe thunderstorms are likely this afternoon into tonight
across parts of the Upper Midwest southward across the lower
Missouri Valley and central/southern Great Plains. Initially this
may be accompanied by a risk for large to giant hail and a few
strong tornadoes, before severe wind gusts of 60 to 90 mph become
the most prominent hazard by this evening.
...20Z Update...
Severe probabilities have been adjusted to account for progression
of the cold front this afternoon. The remainder of the forecast is
unchanged. See MD 475 for short-term details of evolving tornado
risk along the Illinois/Wisconsin border.
..Wendt.. 04/17/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1203 PM CDT Fri Apr 17 2026/
...Synopsis...
Recent surface analysis places a low over south-central MN, with a
cold front extending southwestward to another low over central KS. A
warm front also extends southwestward from the MN low through far
southwest MN and far northern IL into central IN. This warm front is
demarcated well by the 56 deg F isodrosotherm. Farther south, a
dryline extends from the triple point KS low back southwestward
through the TX Panhandle and into far southeast NM. A broad, moist
warm sector exists to the east of the cold front and dryline,
characterized largely by dewpoints in the low to mid 60s.
A well-defined shortwave trough is apparent on satellite imagery,
extending from southern Saskatchewan back southwestward into the
eastern Great Basin. This wave is forecast to continue eastward,
with a attendant increase in the mid-level flow across much of the
Plains and Upper/Mid MS Valley. The cold front will surge
eastward/southeastward in response to this wave as well, interacting
with the warm sector to support numerous strong to severe
thunderstorms from parts of the Upper Midwest southward across the
lower Missouri Valley into southern Plains.
...Upper/Mid MS Valley...
Moderate to strong low-level moisture advection is expected across
the Upper MS Valley today as the surface low mentioned in the
synopsis progresses northeastward, with an attendant northward shift
of the warm front as well. The risk across this region may evolve in
several phases, beginning with the elevated thunderstorms currently
ongoing across northwest WI. This storms will likely continue
northeastward, posing a risk for severe hail and isolated damaging
gusts. Additional development is possible northwest of this activity
along the occluded front, with some hail possible here as well.
Farther south, the northeastward advecting low-level moisture
coupled with strong heating and steep lapse rates will result in a
strongly unstable airmass along and just south of the warm front by
the early afternoon. Storm initiation is anticipated within this
open warm sector by early afternoon, forced by a mix of warm-air
advection, low-level confluence, and subtly increasing large-scale
ascent. This activity should be ahead of the front and initially
discrete. The overall parameter space will be characterized by
strong to very strong buoyancy, moderate deep-layer vertical shear,
and strong low-level helicity. Supercells capable of all hazards are
expected, including large to very large (i.e. 3"+ hail), strong to
intense tornadoes, and severe wind gusts. Storm interactions are
expected to strongly influence the tornado risk, with the initially
discrete mode likely becoming messy quickly.
Farther west, other storms are likely to evolve quickly along the
front, developing into a band of severe thunderstorms that will push
east coincident with the front. Damaging wind gusts will tend to
become more prevalent during the evening with linear storm modes.
Some tornado risk may continue into the evening as maturing bands of
storms yield a threat for bowing segments and embedded mesovortices,
before this activity gradually diminishes late as it moves east into
IN/Lower MI late.
...KS/OK/MO...
A very unstable airmass is expected to develop along and ahead of
the triple point over south-central KS an associated cold front and
dryline. Strong low-level convergence will likely lead to initial
storm development near the triple point. This initial activity will
be supercellular and capable of very large to giant hail (over
3-3.5" in diameter). Highest coverage of very large hail is expected
over from far northwest OK into south-central KS. Strong downdrafts
(60 to 80 mph) are possible as well. With a largely
boundary-parallel orientation to the deep-layer shear, the tornado
risk appears relatively lower. However, given the supercell mode and
potential interactions with outflow, a low-probability tornado risk
remains. A more north-south configuration to the dryline supports a
conditional tornado risk into far northwest TX.
With time, upscale growth and the development of a
forward-propagating MCS is anticipated across central and eastern
KS. Very strong gusts (80+ mph) are possible with this MCS.
Additionally, some QLCS tornado risk will exist within this line as
long as it stays ahead of the surging cold front. The front will
continue sweeping southeastward, with storms along this boundary
yielding a risk for wind/hail.
Read more
SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0225 PM CDT Fri Apr 17 2026
Valid 191200Z - 201200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Sunday.
...Discussion...
An amplified large-scale trough will move eastward from the Great
Lakes to the Northeast on Sunday, while a related cold front moves
off the Eastern Seaboard. Despite poor deep-layer lapse rates, a
narrow corridor of diurnal heating amid lower/middle 60s dewpoints
(higher over the FL Peninsula) ahead of the front should support
isolated thunderstorms from the coastal Carolinas southward across
parts of the FL Peninsula. Weak/narrow buoyancy profiles will limit
thunderstorm intensity and the severe risk.
..Weinman.. 04/17/2026
Read more
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0200 PM CDT Fri Apr 17 2026
Valid 181200Z - 191200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL
NEBRASKA...
...Southern/Central Plains
A Critical area was added for portions of western/central Nebraska
as west-northwest sustained winds of 20-25 mph amid minimum RH of
15-20% are expected. The Critical area may need to be expanded in
Nebraska if ensemble high-resolution forecast guidance continues to
trend towards higher probabilities for critical RH. The Elevated
area was expanded across Nebraska, central Kansas, southern South
Dakota, eastern Colorado, western Oklahoma, and west Texas amid dry
and breezy post-frontal conditions, with recent/forecast
precipitation helping to delineate the expansion of the Elevated
area.
...Southeast/Mid-Atlantic...
The Elevated area in the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic was also
expanded slightly, with pre-frontal elevated winds/RH appearing more
likely along/east of the Appalachians in portions of Virginia, West
Virginia, Maryland, and Pennsylvania. Thunderstorms are expected
along/ahead of the approaching cold front in the southern/central
Appalachians tomorrow late afternoon into tomorrow night. While not
a conducive or typical dry thunderstorm environment, the expected
lightning with 50%+ probability of receiving less than 0.25" of
rainfall on eastern slopes of the Appalachians onto the Piedmont
Plateau could result in ignitions. Given the following dry and
breezy post-frontal conditions on Day 3/Sunday - Day 4/Monday, there
is concern for increased spread potential of any existing and new
ignitions.
..Nauslar.. 04/17/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0108 AM CDT Fri Apr 17 2026/
...Synopsis...
An amplified upper trough will move towards the upper Great Lakes
and Ohio Valley as temporary upper ridging builds over the West.
Enhanced southwest winds ahead of an eastward progressing cold front
will pose an Elevated fire weather threat across parts of the
Southeast and Mid-Atlantic. In the wake of the aforementioned upper
trough, a post-frontal dry airmass and northerly flow will promote
Elevated fire weather conditions across portions of the central
Plains.
...Central Plains...
Within a post-frontal environment, northwesterly winds of 15-20 mph
and RH of 15-25 percent over dry fuels will pose an Elevated fire
weather threat for portions of central NE, eastern CO, and western
KS on Saturday. However, the areal extent of fire weather highlights
may change as forecast precipitation (and perhaps some snowfall) on
Day 1/Friday may provide some relief to fuel conditions.
...Southeast and Mid-Atlantic...
Increasing southwest flow ahead of an advancing cold front coupled
with the lack of Gulf moisture return and resultant low RH are
expected to promote an Elevated fire weather threat across much of
the Southeast into the Mid-Atlantic. At peak heating, widespread RH
of less than 30 percent will combine with southwesterly winds of
10-15 mph atop receptive fuels. A prolonged period of above normal
temperatures and lack of appreciable rainfall continues to
exacerbate fuel conditions across this region.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
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SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0446 PM CDT Fri Apr 17 2026
Valid 191200Z - 251200Z
A large, deep upper level trough will move over the Great Lakes and
the eastern US Day 3/Sunday - Day 4/Monday, with another surface
cold front pushing through the eastern US. An upper-level trough
will move into the West early to mid-next week, with upper-level
troughing likely lingering over the West through next week. Much of
the southern half of the West, southern/central High Plains, and the
Southeast will remain dry for the outlook period.
...Plains and Southwest...
Lee troughing on the southern/central High Plains amid dry return
flow will result in another round of elevated to critical fire
weather conditions on Day 3/Sunday. South-southwest sustained winds
of 15-25 mph amid minimum RH of 8-20% is expected with the highest
probabilities of critical conditions in the Oklahoma/Texas
Panhandles, southwest Kansas, into far southeast Colorado and
northeast New Mexico.
Dry/breezy conditions will likely develop again on Day 4/Monday in
the vicinity of the Oklahoma Panhandle and southwest Kansas amid
continued surface troughing and dry return flow. Another area of
concern will be in eastern Wyoming into western Nebraska and South
Dakota near surface troughing and a cold front. West-northwest winds
of 15-20 mph amid minimum RH of 10-25% is forecast across this area,
with most of the concern ahead of the cold front.
As the upper-level trough moves into and across the Intermountain
West, increasing flow aloft and lee troughing on the High Plains
will lead to elevated/critical fire weather conditions. A broad 40%
area was introduced on Day 6/Wednesday across portions of the
Southwest and much of the southern/central High Plains based on
current ensemble forecast guidance. Depending on the timing of the
upper-level troughing, probabilities may be necessary on Day
5/Tuesday if the upper-level trough trends quicker, or probabilities
may be shifted/increased onto Day 7/Thursday if trends with trough
are slower. Regardless, critical fire weather conditions are likely
to return to portions of the Southwest and much of the
southern/central High Plains mid-next week.
...Southeast and Mid-Atlantic...
Dry and breezy post-frontal conditions will develop east of the
Appalachians on the Piedmont Plateau extending southwest into the
Florida Panhandle on Day 3/Sunday. The 40% area was expanded, but
farther expansion may be necessary depending on the anticipated
rainfall on Day 2/Saturday into Day 3/Sunday. North-northwest
sustained winds of 10-15 mph and minimum RH of 10-30% is forecast
within and near the 40% area amid a fuelscape characterized by ERCs
mostly in the 90-99th percentiles.
Dry and breezy post-frontal conditions will likely persist across
portions of the Piedmont and Deep South on Day 4/Monday. By Day
5/Tuesday, western portions of the Florida Peninsula and north
Florida have the best chances elevated to locally critical
conditions as 10-20 mph easterly winds overlap RH of 25-40%. Minimum
RH of 20-35% will continue across portions of the Southeast further
exacerbating already dry, receptive fuels for which a Fuels and Fire
Behavior Advisory has been issued.
..Nauslar.. 04/17/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
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