RSS Mesoscale Discussions from Storm Prediction Center
No watches are valid as of Sun Apr 5 07:19:01 UTC 2026.
No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Sun Apr 5 07:19:01 UTC 2026.
SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook CORR 1
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1254 AM CDT Sun Apr 05 2026
Valid 051200Z - 061200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE
CAROLINAS TO THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION...
CORRECTED FOR WORDING
...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms with isolated damaging wind gusts will be possible
this afternoon from the eastern Carolinas to the Mid-Atlantic
region.
...Synopsis...
A mid-level trough will impinge on the East Coast as upper ridging
builds over the Interior West today. This upper air pattern will
support a surface trough and accompanying cold front moving offshore
over the East Coast as surface high pressure becomes established to
the west of the Appalachians, over much of the CONUS. Low-level
moisture along the East Coast will promote thunderstorm potential
ahead of the cold front given associated deep-layer lifting. A few
strong thunderstorms are possible across the Carolinas into the
Mid-Atlantic, where deep-layer ascent and vertical wind shear will
be strongest.
...Carolinas into the Mid-Atlantic...
By late morning into early afternoon, breaks in the clouds from
central NC to the NJ shoreline will contribute to boundary layer
mixing, along with destabilization (given the presence of 60+ F
surface dewpoints). 6 C/km mid-level lapse rates overspreading this
boundary layer will result in tall, thin CAPE profiles. A few
hundred J/kg MLCAPE may develop along the Mid-Atlantic shoreline,
with up to 1000 J/kg MLCAPE possible over the eastern Carolinas. As
the surface cold front approaches by early afternoon, a line of
storms should develop along the cold front. Modestly curved
low-level hodographs should support some organization of the squall
line, with a few damaging gusts possible during the afternoon.
..Squitieri/Chalmers.. 04/05/2026
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SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1243 AM CDT Sun Apr 05 2026
Valid 061200Z - 071200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected on Monday across
the Florida Peninsula and over parts of the Desert Southwest, but no
severe threat is forecast.
...DISCUSSION...
An upper-level trough will move southeastward through the Great
Lakes on Monday, as a cold front advances southward into northern
Florida. South of the front, surface dewpoints will be in the 60s F.
As surface temperatures warm during the day, thunderstorm
development is expected in parts of southern and central Florida.
Deep-layer shear across Florida is forecast to be too weak for
organized storms. Elsewhere, isolated thunderstorms will be possible
Monday afternoon across parts of the Desert Southwest. No severe
threat is forecast over the continental U.S. Monday and Monday
night.
..Broyles.. 04/05/2026
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SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0216 AM CDT Sun Apr 05 2026
Valid 071200Z - 081200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected on Tuesday across
parts of the Florida Peninsula, and in the southern Rockies/Four
Corners area. No severe threat is forecast across the U.S. Tuesday
and Tuesday night.
...DISCUSSION...
An upper-level trough will move eastward to near the Mid-Atlantic
Seaboard on Tuesday, as a cold front advances southward across the
Florida Peninsula. A moist airmass will reside over parts of
southern and central Florida on Tuesday, with scattered thunderstorm
development possible as surface temperatures warm. Additional
thunderstorms will be likely from the Four Corners area eastward
into the southern Rockies in the afternoon as a mid-level shortwave
trough passes through. No severe threat is expected across the
continental U.S. Tuesday and Tuesday night.
..Broyles.. 04/05/2026
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SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0148 AM CDT Sun Apr 05 2026
Valid 051200Z - 061200Z
...Synopsis...
Upper-level ridging will remain in place across the West today with
longwave troughing across the Great Lakes region. Concurrently,
surface high pressure will prevail across the central/southern Great
Plains while a cold front progresses eastward across the East
Coast/Southeast. A second cold front will simultaneously move
southward across the northern Great Plains.
...Portions of the southern High Plains...
A tightened surface pressure gradient between the aforementioned
surface high over the central Great Plains and low pressure across
the Gulf of California will promote sustained 15-20 mph
south-southeasterly return flow across the southern High Plains.
With no appreciable moisture return and only limited mid/high cloud
cover expected, diurnal heating/mixing are forecast to result in RH
values dropping to 10-20% across the same region. With current fuel
conditions across portions of the southern High Plains some of the
driest within the CONUS, this combination of winds and RH is
expected to promote elevated fire weather conditions for at least a
few hours this afternoon. Farther south across extreme southeastern
New Mexico and portions of West Texas, greater mid/high cloud cover
should result in RH values remaining more marginal. While locally
elevated fire weather conditions remain possible across this area,
the more marginal forecast RH values coupled with greater
uncertainty regarding wind speed duration and magnitude preclude a
southward expansion of Elevated highlights at this time.
..Chalmers.. 04/05/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
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SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0152 AM CDT Sun Apr 05 2026
Valid 061200Z - 071200Z
...Synopsis...
Upper-level ridging over the West will begin to dampen on D2/Monday
as an incoming mid-level trough shifts into the Pacific Northwest
and a more second, more subtle, mid-level shortwave trough traverses
eastward over the Southwest. Simultaneously, longwave troughing will
persist across the Northeast, with a cold front continuing to
advance eastward across the Eastern Seaboard. A second cold front
will also progress southward across the central Great
Plains/Midwest.
...Portions of the central/southern High Plains...
Similar to D1/Sunday, a tightened surface pressure gradient will
result in sustained southwesterly winds of 15-20 mph over portions
of the central/southern High Plains on D2/Monday. With minimum RH
values forecast in the 10-15% range during the afternoon and dry,
receptive fuels in place across the region, this will promote
elevated fire weather concerns for portions of northeastern New
Mexico, southeastern Colorado, much of the Texas/Oklahoma
Panhandles, and southwestern Kansas. Latest high-res guidance
suggests that locally greater sustained surface winds of 20-25 mph
may support a brief period of critical fire weather conditions
Monday afternoon, with the greatest potential across the western
Oklahoma Panhandle and immediately adjacent portions of TX/NM/CO.
Critical highlights have been withheld at this time due to
uncertainty regarding the magnitude and duration of stronger
sustained surface winds as well as timing/positioning discrepancies
of an approaching cold front within latest model guidance. Trends
will be monitored for a possible upgrade in future outlooks.
The aforementioned cold front is forecast to progress slowly
southward before stalling in the vicinity of the Elevated area late
Monday evening into Monday night, but it remains uncertain as to how
far south this front will progress. Areas that do see the passage of
the cold front can expect a shift to northeasterly winds and at
least some increase in relative humidity.
..Chalmers.. 04/05/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
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