RSS Mesoscale Discussions from Storm Prediction Center
No watches are valid as of Fri Jul 24 02:31:01 UTC 2026.
No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Fri Jul 24 02:31:01 UTC 2026.
SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0751 PM CDT Thu Jul 23 2026
Valid 240100Z - 241200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR A SMALL PART
OF SOUTHWEST KANSAS...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe storms remain possible this evening across
parts of the central/southern High Plains, interior Northwest, and
south Texas.
...Southwest KS vicinity...
Convection may persist through much of the night across parts of
western KS, in response to a weak midlevel shortwave trough and
strengthening low-level jet. Veering wind profiles will provide
sufficient deep-layer shear for occasional storm organization,
though generally modest buoyancy and a tendency for much of the
convection to develop/persist to the cool side of increasing outflow
may tend to limit the coverage and magnitude of the severe threat. A
narrow corridor near and east of Dodge City appears to have the
greatest severe risk through dusk, though isolated severe gusts and
hail will continue to be possible across a larger portion of the
central/southern High Plains through much of the evening.
...Interior Northwest...
Strong to locally severe storms remain possible early this evening
from eastern OR into southeast WA and western ID. Large-scale
forcing is not particularly strong, but MLCAPE approaching 1000 J/kg
and moderate deep-layer shear will continue to support occasional
storm organization, with a threat isolated hail and strong to severe
gusts. The threat should diminish later tonight with the onset of
nocturnal cooling/stabilization across the region.
...South Texas...
Tropical Depression Bertha is centered over the Houston vicinity
this evening. A continued weakening trend is expected through the
evening (reference NHC advisories for more information). To the
west/southwest of Bertha, modestly enhanced midlevel flow persists
this evening, per regional VWPs. Convection with locally damaging
gusts cannot be ruled out through dusk, with some threat possibly
persisting into late evening into parts of Deep South Texas.
..Dean.. 07/24/2026
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SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0503 PM CDT Thu Jul 23 2026
Valid 251200Z - 311200Z
Upper-level troughing will continue across the northwestern US
through early next week with mid-level shortwaves occasionally
rotating through the southwesterly flow aloft. Hot, dry, and breezy
conditions will continue into early next week across much of the
Inland Northwest, northern Great Basin, northern Rockies, and
northern Plains. The Four Corners high will likely slowly shift east
over the southern High Plains late this weekend and early next week,
with daily monsoonal thunderstorms also likely to continue across
much of the Four Corners region.
...Northwestern US...
Elevated to critical fire weather conditions will overspread the
Inland Northwest, northwest Great Basin, and much of the northern
Rockies onto the northern High Plains Day 3/Saturday. West-southwest
winds will increase amid strengthening winds aloft and an onshore
pressure gradient. RH will decrease as drier air continues to filter
into the region leading to long duration elevated/critical
conditions with possible locally extremely critical conditions
developing within the 70% area. Isolated to scattered mixed wet/dry
thunderstorms are likely to develop across portions of
central/eastern Montana on Day 3/Saturday as well.
Dry and windy conditions will continue across the same areas on Day
4/Sunday, while likely expanding farther onto the northern Plains. A
70% area was introduced extending northward from the Sierra Front
into southern Oregon/vicinity, with another 70% area in northern
Montana. Some forecast guidance indicates that critical conditions
will develop again in the Columbia Basin, but only an upgrade to 40%
was done at this time. Isolated mixed wet/dry thunderstorms are
possible in southeast Montana/vicinity on Day 4/Sunday and will be
monitored for potential DryT probabilities going forward.
Dry and breezy conditions will continue on Day 5/Monday across
portions of the northern Great Basin/vicinity and possibly across
the Inland Northwest and into the northern Rockies. These dry and
breezy conditions may continue into Day 6/Tuesday, but there is too
much forecast uncertainty regarding the timing of the upper-level
ridge building back over the West with stronger southwest flow
retreating to the northwest.
Fuels will continue to cure across the northwestern US due to
consecutive days of hot, dry, and breezy conditions, which will
allow more areas to have receptive fuels and thus be included in
fire risk areas going forward. This period represents a critical
fire weather pattern as hot, dry, and windy conditions will follow
lightning. Growth on existing fires and new emerging fires is
expected.
...Southern Plains...
Hot, dry, and breezy conditions are likely early to mid next week
across the Texas Panhandle and western Oklahoma. A 40% area was
introduced to reflect this with an expansion and additional areas
likely needed in subsequent outlooks as fuels rapidly cure.
..Nauslar.. 07/23/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
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