RSS Mesoscale Discussions from Storm Prediction Center
WW 381 SEVERE TSTM DE MD NC NJ VA CW 231545Z - 240000Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 381
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1145 AM EDT Tue Jun 23 2026
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of
Southern Delaware
Eastern Maryland
Eastern North Carolina
Southern New Jersey
Eastern Virginia
Coastal Waters
* Effective this Tuesday morning and evening from 1145 AM until
800 PM EDT.
* Primary threats include...
Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely
A tornado or two possible
SUMMARY...Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are expected to move
across the region this afternoon into early evening ahead of a cold
front. Thunderstorm clusters will mainly pose a risk for damaging
wind gusts, though a tornado or two also will be possible. This
activity should move offshore this evening.
The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 130
statute miles north and south of a line from 25 miles northwest of
Rocky Mount NC to 80 miles east of Norfolk VA. For a complete
depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update
(WOUS64 KWNS WOU1).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.
&&
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 380...
AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
1 inch. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few
cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 450. Mean storm motion vector
24035.
...Leitman
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WW 380 SEVERE TSTM OK TX 231500Z - 232000Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 380
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1000 AM CDT Tue Jun 23 2026
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of
Southwest Oklahoma
Eastern Texas Panhandle
* Effective this Tuesday morning and afternoon from 1000 AM until
300 PM CDT.
* Primary threats include...
Scattered damaging winds and isolated significant gusts to 75
mph possible
Scattered large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible
SUMMARY...This potential for wind damage and bouts of large hail may
increase as a line of storms continues to organize, accelerate, and
progress southeastward across the region.
The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 55
statute miles east and west of a line from 30 miles northwest of
Clinton OK to 25 miles south of Altus OK. For a complete depiction
of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS
WOU0).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.
&&
AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 65 knots. A
few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 600. Mean storm motion vector
31030.
...Guyer
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WW 0381 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0381 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET
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WW 0380 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 380
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..MOORE..06/23/26
ATTN...WFO...OUN...LUB...AMA...
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 380
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
OKC009-015-031-039-055-057-065-075-141-149-231840-
OK
. OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BECKHAM CADDO COMANCHE
CUSTER GREER HARMON
JACKSON KIOWA TILLMAN
WASHITA
TXC075-087-483-231840-
TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CHILDRESS COLLINGSWORTH WHEELER
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
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MD 1273 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA
Mesoscale Discussion 1273
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1247 PM CDT Tue Jun 23 2026
Areas affected...Northeast Oklahoma
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 231747Z - 231945Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent
SUMMARY...A band of thunderstorms may produce sporadic wind damage
through the mid-afternoon hours. Given the marginal downstream
environment, watch issuance is not expected.
DISCUSSION...A semi-organized band of thunderstorms has emerged to
the northwest of the Tulsa, OK metro over the past hour with a
consolidated coldpool/outflow evident in nearby KINX imagery.
Although most wind reports thus far have been between 20-30 mph,
GOES IR imagery and lightning counts suggest that this band has been
slowly strengthening. Further downstream, widespread cloud cover and
cool outflow from prior convection is muting diurnal heating;
nonetheless, temperatures are warming into the mid/upper 70s with an
attendant increase in MLCAPE noted in recent mesoanalyses.
Consequently, further intensification of the line appears possible
in the next few hours and may support an increase in damaging wind
potential. VWP observations from KINX show a fairly modest kinematic
environment, which will likely act to modulate overall storm
intensity and preclude the need for watch issuance.
..Moore/Guyer.. 06/23/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...SGF...TSA...OUN...
LAT...LON 35859664 36099643 36329632 36479633 36629637 36719624
36929480 36679456 36469453 36209451 35839459 35629474
35529498 35749653 35859664
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN
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MD 1272 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 380... FOR WESTERN OKLAHOMA INTO NORTHWEST TEXAS AND THE FAR EASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE
Mesoscale Discussion 1272
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1221 PM CDT Tue Jun 23 2026
Areas affected...Western Oklahoma into northwest Texas and the far
eastern Texas Panhandle
Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 380...
Valid 231721Z - 231915Z
The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 380
continues.
SUMMARY...A corridor of higher severe hail and wind potential may
persist for the next few hours as storms begin to approach the Red
River. Local expansion of WW 380 may be needed.
DISCUSSION...Over the past hour, an initial line of thunderstorms
has devolved into a pair of loosely organized supercells. Based on
recent MRMS data, these cells remain capable of producing large hail
with at least a couple of reports of one-inch hail noted over the
past 1-2 hours. Latest high-res guidance continues to handle this
convection poorly, which casts some uncertainty onto storm evolution
into the mid/late afternoon hours. However, these cells are
approaching the regional buoyancy axis where MLCAPE is increasing to
near 3000 J/kg. Latest VWP observations from KFDR sampled 0-6 km BWD
values on the order of 25-30 knots, which is slightly lower than
depicted by recent mesoanalyses (30-35 knots). Given a downstream
environment with increasing buoyancy but slightly diminishing
mid-level flow/deep-layer wind shear with southward extent, some
uptick in updraft intensity appears likely, but it is unclear how
well-organized convection will be beyond the next couple of hours.
Nonetheless, some local extensions of WW 380 will be necessary as
storms approach the Red River.
..Moore.. 06/23/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...OUN...LUB...AMA...
LAT...LON 35630064 35880047 35970017 35989990 35809970 34289883
34059881 33869903 33819940 33809987 33840045 34010063
35630064
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN
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SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1145 AM CDT Tue Jun 23 2026
Valid 231630Z - 241200Z
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE HIGH
PLAINS...MID-ATLANTIC STATES AND UPPER MIDWEST...
...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms capable of producing 2+ inch diameter hail, 75+
mph gusts, and isolated tornadoes are expected from the central High
Plains into parts of the southern Plains through tonight. Other
severe thunderstorms are expected across southeast Virginia and
eastern North Carolina, as well across the Upper Midwest.
...Southern Plains and Central High Plains...
Complex scenario exist with multiple iterations of convective
clusters ongoing regionally at midday, including a relatively more
intense/focused cluster near the southwest Oklahoma and eastern
Texas Panhandle border vicinity. These storms are likely to persist
generally south-southeastward today, and potentially grow upscale
with continued wind/hail potential, but details are complicated by
prevalent outflow/cloud debris etc. Additional development may occur
later today into tonight on the west-northwest fringe of these early
day storms/residual outflows and near the front/east of the surface
low, which could bring about a renewed severe potential mainly in
the form of large hail and damaging winds. However, recent HRRR runs
(14z/15z) have notably trended much more limited with this
late-day/evening redevelopment scenario.
Farther west/north, weak low-level upslope flow and a small-scale
mid-level perturbation embedded within the westerly flow aloft
should encourage at least isolated convective development across
southeast Wyoming into eastern Colorado by late afternoon, and more
so, into early/mid evening. A conditionally favorable environment
for very large hail will exist across the central High Plains this
afternoon into tonight. Any thunderstorms that can develop will
likely become severe given strong deep-layer shear, the presence of
steep mid-level lapse rates, and moderate to locally strong
instability. Even though low-level flow and shear will remain modest
this evening across the central High Plains, a tornado may still
occur with any sustained supercell.
...Southeast Virginia/Eastern North Carolina...
Within large-scale upper troughing over the eastern CONUS/Canada, an
embedded mid-level shortwave trough will move eastward today across
the Carolinas and southern Mid-Atlantic. At the surface, a cold
front will also develop eastward across these areas through the
afternoon. Thunderstorms will increase through early/mid afternoon
along and ahead of the front. While lapse rates aloft will remain
poor, sufficient instability will exist with daytime heating to
support surface-based convection. A generally linear/cluster mode is
anticipated given the frontal forcing, with modestly enhanced and
increasing low/mid-level flow and related shear supporting
thunderstorm organization. Scattered damaging winds appear to be the
main threat with this activity as it spreads eastward through the
afternoon, with the greatest concentration forecast across parts of
southeast Virginia and eastern North Carolina. A brief tornado or
two may also occur.
...Northern Plains/Upper Midwest...
A closed mid-level low over south-central Canada this morning will
move slowly eastward today. A belt of enhanced (40-50 kt) westerly
mid-level winds will overspread parts of the northern Plains and
Upper Midwest to the south of this low. At the surface, a cold front
in the process of occluding is located over the Dakotas.
Thunderstorms should develop this afternoon along/east of this
boundary across parts of the eastern Dakotas into western Minnesota.
Given sufficient deep-layer shear and instability, some of this
activity is expected to pose a severe hail/wind risk, along with the
potential for a couple of tornadoes in immediate proximity of the
surface boundary where low-level CAPE/shear will be maximized.
...Coastal Southeast...
Isolated severe thunderstorms mainly capable of downbursts/wind
damage will be possible this afternoon within a moist and unstable
airmass for areas including far southern Georgia and northern
Florida.
..Guyer/Moore.. 06/23/2026
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SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook CORR 1
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1242 PM CDT Tue Jun 23 2026
Valid 241200Z - 251200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...
CORRECTED FOR TEXT
...SUMMARY...
Widely scattered severe storms are possible across the central High
Plains on Wednesday with a threat for large to very large hail and
severe wind gusts. More isolated severe storms are possible across
portions of the Upper Midwest, Ozarks to Mississippi, and across
northern Utah.
...Synopsis...
Strengthening westerly flow aloft in association with a mid-level
wave moving out of Saskatchewan/Manitoba will overspread the central
Rockies on D2/Wednesday. A surface low will be located across
northern Wisconsin drifting eastward with a cold front extending
southward into the central high Plains. Lee cyclogenesis is progged
late in the period across eastern Colorado/western Kansas in
response to the increased westerly flow across the central Rockies.
Widely scattered severe storms are expected to form across the high
terrain in the central/southern High Plains before moving into the
central/southern Plains by the evening. More isolated severe storms
are possible near the surface low in Wisconsin, across portion of
the Ozarks to Mississippi, and northern Utah.
...Central/Southern High Plains into the Ozarks...
Moderate instability will overlap strong deep layer shear within the
upslope flow across eastern Colorado into southeastern Wyoming
Wednesday afternoon. This will support initial supercell modes with
development into the afternoon. Easterly surface flow becoming
westerly aloft will support veering wind profiles and low-level
curvature of hodographs. Large to very large hail and perhaps a
tornado will be possible before storms begin to cluster. Damaging
wind potential will then increase as storms consolidate along
outflow and spread eastwards. The Slight was shifted further
eastward into the Nebraska Panhandle to account for this downstream
potential.
...Eastern Arkansas into Mississippi...
Confidence in the evolution of overnight convection across portions
of Oklahoma Tuesday night is decreasing. It remains possible that an
MCS will be ongoing towards the beginning of the D2/Wednesday period
shifting eastward into portions of Arkansas by day break. It is
possible that should this occur, some re intensification could be
ongoing across portions of eastern Arkansas into Mississippi. For
now, a Marginal Risk was maintained across this area for potential
for damaging winds pending further details on the evolution of
convection overnight.
...Upper Great Lakes...
Filtered daytime heating through breaks in the clouds should allow
for moderate instability to develop near the surface low across
portions of the western Great Lakes. Widely scattered thunderstorms
are expected to develop during the afternoon in the vicinity of the
surface low and frontal boundary, and within the belt of stronger
mid-level flow, suggesting some potential for large hail with the
strongest updrafts.
...Northern Utah...
A weak mid-level shortwave trough will move across northern Utah
during the day on Wednesday, with weak to moderate instability
progged by the afternoon. Forecast soundings show a deeply-mixed
sub-cloud layer which will support potential thunderstorms capable
of damaging winds.
..Thornton.. 06/23/2026
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SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1136 AM CDT Tue Jun 23 2026
Valid 231700Z - 241200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA AND SOUTHERN
UTAH...
No changes were needed to the existing fire weather outlook as the
forecast remains on track. Poor RH recoveries were noted across much
of the Great Basin and Southwest. A swath of very low RH values of
10% or less currently stretches from the eastern Great Basin into
the Four Corners region. West winds of up to 20 mph under a building
upper ridge will develop across northern AZ and southern UT by mid
afternoon resulting in Critical fire weather conditions for the area
amid very dry fuels.
...Inland Southern California...
Mid and upper-level moisture streaming northward into southern CA
combined with daytime heating and instability will bring isolated
convection to inland/desert portions of southern CA this afternoon
and this evening. A few dry lightning strikes with high based
thunderstorms are expected but coverage should be limited, with dry
thunderstorm highlights withheld for this outlook.
..Williams.. 06/23/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1226 AM CDT Tue Jun 23 2026/
...Synopsis...
Dry southwesterly to westerly flow under a building ridge aloft will
bring a broad fire weather concern to portions of the Southwest,
southern Great Basin and CO Plateau today. Hot temperatures combined
with dry air will drop RHs to 5-15% during peak heating across this
region this afternoon. This well-mixed boundary layer will transport
the aforementioned flow to the surface, leading to widespread
west-southwest winds of 10-15 mph over the Elevated area. To capture
the areal extent of this activity as indicated in the latest
forecast guidance, slight expansions were made to include additional
portions of central NV and southwestern WY. A corridor of enhanced
westerly winds up to 20 mph amid RH as low as 10% will yield a
period of critical fire weather conditions for parts of northern AZ
into southern UT. Persistently poor RH nighttime recoveries will
further exacerbate already very dry fuels and extend burn periods
well into the overnight hours.
While not likely, a thunderstorm or two cannot be completely ruled
out near Flagstaff, AZ. If any such storm does form, it will likely
provide more potential for wind than rain given the high cloud
bases, limited precipitable water, and very hot and dry surface
conditions in this area. Greater potential for thunderstorm activity
will exist on Day 2/Wednesday.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
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