RSS Mesoscale Discussions from Storm Prediction Center
WW 27 SEVERE TSTM TX CW 072150Z - 080500Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 27
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
350 PM CST Sat Mar 7 2026
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of
South-Central Texas
Coastal Waters
* Effective this Saturday afternoon and evening from 350 PM until
1100 PM CST.
* Primary threats include...
Scattered large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible
Isolated damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible
SUMMARY...Storm will continue to increase and intensify across the
region through late afternoon and early evening, with the
environment being favorable for storms capable of large hail and
locally damaging winds.
The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 80
statute miles north and south of a line from 50 miles west of
Cotulla TX to 45 miles east northeast of Victoria TX. For a complete
depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update
(WOUS64 KWNS WOU7).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.
&&
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 24...WW 25...WW 26...
AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A
few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector
24025.
...Guyer
Read more
WW 26 SEVERE TSTM LA MS 071915Z - 080300Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 26
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
115 PM CST Sat Mar 7 2026
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of
Northeast Louisiana
Mississippi
* Effective this Saturday afternoon and evening from 115 PM until
900 PM CST.
* Primary threats include...
Scattered damaging wind gusts to 60 mph possible
Isolated large hail events to 1 inch in diameter possible
SUMMARY...A line of storms will continue to slowly progress
southeastward with additional storm development ahead of it from
northeast Louisiana into Mississippi. Wind damage is the primary
hazard with the stronger storms.
The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 60
statute miles north and south of a line from 45 miles northwest of
Natchez MS to 35 miles north northeast of Meridian MS. For a
complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline
update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU6).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.
&&
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 23...WW 24...WW 25...
AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
1 inch. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 50 knots. A few
cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector
25020.
...Guyer
Read more
WW 0027 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 27
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 NW LRD TO
15 NE COT TO 20 S SAT TO 20 NW BAZ.
..SPC..03/08/26
ATTN...WFO...CRP...EWX...HGX...
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 27
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
TXC007-013-021-025-029-055-057-089-091-123-131-149-175-177-187-
209-239-249-255-273-283-285-297-311-321-355-391-409-469-479-481-
493-080240-
TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ARANSAS ATASCOSA BASTROP
BEE BEXAR CALDWELL
CALHOUN COLORADO COMAL
DEWITT DUVAL FAYETTE
GOLIAD GONZALES GUADALUPE
HAYS JACKSON JIM WELLS
KARNES KLEBERG LA SALLE
LAVACA LIVE OAK MCMULLEN
MATAGORDA NUECES REFUGIO
SAN PATRICIO VICTORIA WEBB
WHARTON WILSON
GMZ231-232-236-237-330-080240-
CW
. ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE
Read more
WW 0026 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 26
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 5 NE ESF TO
50 NNW PIB TO 25 W TCL.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0173
..MOORE..03/08/26
ATTN...WFO...JAN...
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 26
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
LAC029-080140-
LA
. LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE
CONCORDIA
MSC001-023-029-031-037-061-063-065-067-069-075-077-085-101-127-
129-080140-
MS
. MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ADAMS CLARKE COPIAH
COVINGTON FRANKLIN JASPER
JEFFERSON JEFFERSON DAVIS JONES
KEMPER LAUDERDALE LAWRENCE
LINCOLN NEWTON SIMPSON
SMITH
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
Read more
WW 0025 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 25
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NNW CRW
TO 30 SSW HLG TO 15 WNW PIT TO 20 SSW JHW TO 30 N BFD.
..KERR..03/07/26
ATTN...WFO...BUF...ILN...CLE...RLX...PBZ...CTP...
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 25
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
NYC003-009-072240-
NY
. NEW YORK COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ALLEGANY CATTARAUGUS
OHC167-072240-
OH
. OHIO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
WASHINGTON
PAC003-005-007-019-021-023-031-033-047-051-053-059-063-065-083-
105-111-123-125-129-072240-
PA
. PENNSYLVANIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ALLEGHENY ARMSTRONG BEAVER
BUTLER CAMBRIA CAMERON
CLARION CLEARFIELD ELK
Read more
WW 0024 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 24
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 N MSL TO
40 S BNA TO 30 ESE BNA TO 50 NNW CSV.
..KERR..03/07/26
ATTN...WFO...LMK...PAH...OHX...
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 24
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
KYC169-171-072240-
KY
. KENTUCKY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
METCALFE MONROE
TNC003-055-117-159-072240-
TN
. TENNESSEE COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BEDFORD GILES MARSHALL
SMITH
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
Read more
MD 0174 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 27... FOR SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS
Mesoscale Discussion 0174
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0601 PM CST Sat Mar 07 2026
Areas affected...South Central Texas
Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 27...
Valid 080001Z - 080200Z
The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 27
continues.
SUMMARY...Scattered strong to locally severe convection will
continue across south central Texas.
DISCUSSION...Surface front continues advancing steadily south across
south central TX early this evening. While surface temperatures have
warmed considerably along the lower Rio Grande Valley, very little
convection is noted across the warm sector. Latest radar data
depicts scattered robust elevated convection north of the wind
shift, and this activity is gradually developing south as the front
advances toward deep south TX. Given the weak height rises noted
across this region, frontal ascent should continue to be the primary
mechanism for thunderstorm development. Forecast soundings suggest
parcel lift may be near 1km, and adequate MUCAPE exists north of the
wind shift for a continued hail risk with the most robust updrafts.
..Darrow.. 03/08/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...HGX...CRP...EWX...
LAT...LON 29600003 30269621 27939622 27290003 29600003
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN
Read more
MD 0173 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 26... FOR SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI INTO FAR WESTERN ALABAMA
Mesoscale Discussion 0173
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0555 PM CST Sat Mar 07 2026
Areas affected...Southern Mississippi into far western Alabama
Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 26...
Valid 072355Z - 080200Z
The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 26
continues.
SUMMARY...Damaging wind gusts remain possible as poorly organized
storm clusters migrate south/southeast across southern Mississippi
into far western Alabama.
DISCUSSION...Recent surface observations and radar imagery from KDGX
show a composite cold front/outflow boundary slowly pushing
southeast after a recent amalgamation of frontal and pre-frontal
convection. The recent storm interactions have yielded periodic
strong gusts per velocity imagery, but has also resulted in a recent
weakening trend of lingering convection. However, with the
southeastward surge of the front/outflow, new convection developing
on the boundary will mature in a environment characterized by 1500
J/kg. This may support a gradual uptick in thunderstorm intensity,
and given surface temperatures remaining in the low 80s and upper
70s (yielding low-level lapse rates on the order of 7-7.5 C/km),
sporadic strong to severe downburst winds appear possible over the
next couple of hours. With time, the onset of nocturnal
cooling/stabilization and weak wind shear with southeastward extent
should result in a gradual weakening of convection, but a localized
severe wind threat will likely persist for the next hour or so.
..Moore.. 03/07/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...BMX...MOB...JAN...LIX...
LAT...LON 31389119 31749032 32248944 32608906 32978849 33058811
32968778 32698767 32388774 31948803 31498868 31228927
31058999 30999052 31029100 31209122 31389119
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN
Read more
SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0640 PM CST Sat Mar 07 2026
Valid 080100Z - 081200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF
SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEAST TEXAS INTO FAR SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA...
...SUMMARY...
A few storms may produce hail across southern Texas, with sporadic
wind damage still possible extending into parts of the Southeast.
...Discussion...
Scattered cells continue to develop near and north of the cold front
into southern TX, with areas of heavy rain and periodic strong gusts
moving across southeast TX and into southern MS and central AL.
The 00Z CRP sounding shows substantial instability with MLCAPE
around 2000 J/kg. Low-level flow is relatively weak, but veering
with height which may aid updraft propagation to the east/southeast.
Moderate mid to high level winds are also elongating hodographs,
which may support favorable storm structure for large hail.
Otherwise, an elongated line of thunderstorms extending from
southeast TX into the southern Appalachians may produce strong wind
gusts at times, with generally marginal shear profiles for anything
sustained. The loss of daytime heating will also support a weakening
trend during the evening.
..Jewell.. 03/08/2026
Read more
SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook CORR 1
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0237 PM CST Sat Mar 07 2026
Valid 072000Z - 081200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PARTS OF TEXAS TO
THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY/TENNESSEE VALLEY AND UPPER OHIO
VALLEY...
CORRECTED FOR LINE PLACEMENT ERROR
...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms are likely today across parts of Ohio
into West Virginia and western Pennsylvania/New York, and from
portions of Texas into the lower Mississippi Valley and Mid-South.
Damaging winds should be the main threat for most areas, but large
hail may occur across parts of Texas, and a few tornadoes are
possible in the upper Ohio Valley.
...20z Update...
No major changes were made to the D1 Convective Outlook. Main edits
with this update were to remove probabilities behind the main lines
of storms across the Northeast and from the Mid-South into the
Southern Plains.
Across the Northeast, a broken line of storms continues
northeastward, with a few leading line supercell structures ongoing.
The environment ahead of this line continues to destabilize with
daytime heating in combination with continued strong flow aloft
promoting an uptick in storm organization. See MCD#167 for more
information.
From the Ohio Valley to Mid-South the Gulf States and into the far
eastern Southern Plains, a line of storms continues southeastward
this afternoon, with showers and thunderstorms developing ahead of
this line within the warm sector. The environment ahead of this line
is very moist and unstable. Further south, there is some
displacement from the strongest winds aloft, though deep layer shear
remains favorable. See MCD#168 for more information.
See previous discussion below for more information.
..Thornton.. 03/07/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1033 AM CST Sat Mar 07 2026/
...Ohio Valley to Western Pennsylvania/New York...
A loosely organized linear band of currently non-strong
thunderstorms, which is effectively augmenting the cold front,
continues generally eastward at midday toward Lake Erie/central Ohio
and across northern Kentucky. Ample insolation is occurring per
visible satellite ahead of this convection across eastern portions
of Kentucky/Ohio into West Virginia and western Pennsylvania, with
surface dewpoints generally climbing through the upper 50s F. This
scenario will quickly erode remaining convective inhibition, with
thunderstorms expected to increase and intensify through
mid-afternoon.
As storms develop/mature, strong cyclonically influenced flow aloft
(45+ kt effective shear) will support both supercells and
well-organized/fast-moving clusters in the presence of a 40-50 kt
southwesterly low-level jet, with notable 50-65 kt winds around 3km
AGL/700 mb. These storms will be capable of scattered
severe/damaging winds as they move quickly east-northeastward across
the region. The potential also exists for line-embedded and/or
supercell tornadoes given the degree of 0-2km AGL shear/SRH. This
convection is forecast to weaken this evening as it moves into the
higher terrain of the Appalachians and encounters a much less
unstable airmass.
...Texas to the Lower Mississippi Valley/Mid-South...
At late morning, extensive linear bands of convection are
principally located near the southeastward-advancing cold front from
the Mid-South/Memphis vicinity southwestward to the ArkLaTex and
central Texas, with some stronger/occasional hail-capable
post-frontal elevated convection noted across parts of the Edwards
Plateau and Low Rolling Plains. Damaging winds will remain the most
common hazard across the Mid-South/parts of Kentucky and ArkLaMiss
vicinity as convection moves/develops into a gradually destabilizing
air mass regionally.
Potential for supercells is more apparent across parts of Texas,
where steep mid-level lapse rates, greater MUCAPE, and modestly
enhanced mid/upper-level flow, and related deep-layer shear, will
support the potential for primarily large hail. This supercell hail
potential should be maximized across south-central Texas potentially
including parts of the Hill County/Brush Country toward the Rio
Grande.
Read more
SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0359 PM CST Sat Mar 07 2026
Valid 091200Z - 151200Z
A mid-level cutoff low and upper trough will merge while ejecting
into the Plains, tracking toward the East Coast through the middle
of next week. Surface low development is expected across the central
U.S. with the passage of the merging upper troughs early next week.
This upper air pattern will support a few instances of regional dry
downslope flow, especially across portions of the central and
southern High Plains on Day 3 (Monday), where 40% Critical
probabilities have been introduced. Dry downslope flow may continue
across the southern High Plains on Day 4 (Tuesday), but possible
preceding rainfall and marginal RH precludes Critical probabilities
this outlook.
By the middle of next week into next weekend, a zonal upper flow
pattern will become established over the central U.S. with the
departure of the upper trough. A pronounced mid-level impulse and
accompanying rapidly eastward progressing surface low will support
widespread dry and windy conditions across much of the High Plains
on Day 6 (Thursday) given both strong gradient and downslope induced
surface flow. 40% Critical probabilities were introduced across
portions of the central and southern High Plains, where fuels are
most receptive to wildfire spread and are forecast to receive
minimal rainfall into next week.
..Squitieri.. 03/07/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
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