RSS Mesoscale Discussions from Storm Prediction Center
No watches are valid as of Tue Dec 9 17:41:02 UTC 2025.
MD 2254 CONCERNING FREEZING RAIN FOR SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA INTO NORTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA AND FAR WESTERN MINNESOTA
Mesoscale Discussion 2254
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0902 AM CST Tue Dec 09 2025
Areas affected...Southeast North Dakota into northeast South Dakota
and far western Minnesota
Concerning...Freezing rain
Valid 091502Z - 091800Z
SUMMARY...Light freezing rain accumulations appear likely over the
next few hours across southeast North Dakota into adjacent portions
of South Dakota and far western Minnesota.
DISCUSSION...Latest surface observations and 12 UTC upper air
soundings/analyses depict a zone from central ND into northeast SD
with low-level thermodynamic profiles favorable for freezing rain.
These analyses are supported by recent dual-pol imagery from KABR
which depicts a melting layer between roughly 0.5 to 1.5 km AGL. The
depth of this warm layer appears to be slightly deeper/stronger than
anticipated by morning guidance, suggesting that freezing rain may
be the preferred precipitation type over a more generic wintry mix.
Recent ASOS and mPING reports from the Jamestown, ND indicate
freezing rain is ongoing, which may become more widespread over the
next 2-3 hours as a region of stratiform precipitation spreads
east/southeast into northeast SD.
Despite a potential mid-level cool bias in recent guidance, the
general consensus is that the favorable zone for freezing rain
should constrict across western MN by late morning as low-level
warming promotes a transition to primarily rain across SD. Before
this occurs, light freezing rain accumulations appear probable.
..Moore.. 12/09/2025
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...MPX...FGF...ABR...BIS...
LAT...LON 45839548 45599528 45319527 45039545 44869585 44869643
44959717 45129779 45319834 45609872 45959899 46299923
46859951 47169964 47499975 47869969 48039938 48049881
47789826 47169737 46539660 46079588 45839548
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SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1014 AM CST Tue Dec 09 2025
Valid 091630Z - 101200Z
...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are not forecast through tonight.
...Synopsis and Discussion...
Upper pattern will remain active today/tonight as a low-amplitude
shortwave trough progresses quickly eastward through the OH Valley
ahead of a more substantial shortwave trough moving southeastward
out of the Canadian Prairies and through the northern Plains and
Upper Midwest. By 12Z Wednesday, this second shortwave will likely
extend from the Lake Michigan vicinity southwestward into northeast
KS/northwest MO.
Progression of this second shortwave will reinforce the already dry
and stable airmass in place across much of CONUS, precluding
thunderstorms. Some modest moisture return is anticipated late
tonight/early tomorrow across the western Gulf, but much of this
moisture will remain offshore. Some low-level moisture also remains
in place across south FL, even in the wake of the cold front now
settled across the Florida Straits. Even with this low-level
moisture still in place, modest and shallow buoyancy, and limited
forcing for ascent should preclude thunderstorms across south FL
today.
..Mosier/Moore.. 12/09/2025
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SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1046 AM CST Tue Dec 09 2025
Valid 101200Z - 111200Z
...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
The risk for thunderstorms appears negligible on Wednesday.
...Synopsis...
Despite the presence of a deep cyclone moving across the Northeast
on Wednesday, low-level moisture return will continue to be
suppressed in the wake of an earlier frontal passage, resulting in
negligible thunderstorm potential across the CONUS. Weak buoyancy
may develop across parts of far south FL and the Keys, but with
generally weak ascent and dry air aloft across this region, any deep
convection is expected to remain offshore.
..Dean.. 12/09/2025
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SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1053 AM CST Tue Dec 09 2025
Valid 091700Z - 101200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
Locally elevated winds/RH are already developing in portions of
southeast New Mexico, and elevated to perhaps locally critical
winds/RH are likely during the afternoon in portions of southeast
New Mexico and west Texas. However, given the marginal fuels
conditions, no areas are necessary, and the forecast remains on
track.
..Nauslar.. 12/09/2025
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1128 PM CST Mon Dec 08 2025/
...Synopsis...
A strong shortwave trough will move across the northern Great Plains
today within a northwesterly flow regime aloft. In response at the
surface, a low pressure system will track from southern Saskatchewan
toward the Great Lakes, with a pressure trough extending southward
through western Texas. To the west of this surface trough, dry and
breezy conditions will prevail within a downslope-flow regime across
portions of western Texas and southeastern New Mexico. While
localized elevated meteorological conditions are possible across
this region, fuel indices are generally not supportive of large
wildfires, precluding the need for fire-weather highlights.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
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