RSS Mesoscale Discussions from Storm Prediction Center
No watches are valid as of Sun May 31 08:46:02 UTC 2026.
No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Sun May 31 08:46:02 UTC 2026.
SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0103 AM CDT Sun May 31 2026
Valid 311200Z - 011200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE GREAT PLAINS INTO THE OZARKS...
...SUMMARY...
A few strong to locally severe storms are possible across the
central U.S. on Sunday, from the Dakotas into the Ozarks, and across
southwest Texas.
...Synopsis...
A relatively weak upper trough will lift northward through the
central/northern Plains. To the south of this feature, mid-level
heights will modestly rise during the day. Weak surface lows are
expected within the northern Plains and Kansas. Rich moisture will
be present as far north as the Mid-Missouri Valley.
...Kansas/Missouri...
Convection is likely to be ongoing in parts of the Mid-Missouri
Valley during the morning. This activity is likely to leave an
outflow boundary within Missouri. Dewpoints in the upper 60s to low
70s F will promote strong to extreme MLCAPE values (3500-5000 J/kg).
Despite the trough generally lifting northward, a band of 30-40 kt
of mid-level flow will remain across the region. Storm development
along the surface trough/dryline is uncertain given the rising
mid-level heights. However, it is possible that a storm or two could
form along this boundary or where it intersects outflow from the
early day activity. Deep-layer shear would be sufficient for
supercell structures capable of large hail, severe winds, and
perhaps a tornado given the locally enhanced SRH along the outflow
boundary. The potential for very-large hail is less clear given weak
upper-level flow.
Model guidance also suggests a subtle shortwave, coupled with weak
low-level lift, could initiate convection in the vicinity of
northeast Kansas/northwest Missouri. With the very moist airmass
present, nocturnal cooling would be rather gradual. Should a strong
enough cold pool develop, this activity could develop
south/southeast along the outflow boundary where a reservoir of
strong buoyancy would exist. Damaging winds would be the main threat
with this potential MCS. With the timing of this development
expected to be after 03Z, it is not clear how intense storms will
be. Should confidence increase in either scenario, a categorical
Slight would be warranted.
...Oklahoma/Texas...
Strong heating to the west of a dryline will promote at least
isolated storms during the afternoon. Higher confidence in greater
storm coverage exists in Southwest Texas given the moist upslope
flow into the Davis Mountains. Coverage into Rolling Plains and
Oklahoma is less certain as mid-level heights will be slowly rising
during the day. Moderate to strong buoyancy will be in place
(2000-4000 J/kg MLCAPE. Deep layer shear will be weak, however.
Severe wind gusts will be the main hazard, though isolated large
hail is possible in the areas of larger buoyancy.
...Nebraska into the Dakotas...
Forcing for ascent from the weak, negatively tilted upper trough
will be greater here than areas to the south. That said, shear will
not be overly strong. Daytime heating will support widely scattered
to scattered storms capable of locally damaging winds and perhaps
some hail.
..Wendt/Moore.. 05/31/2026
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SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1259 AM CDT Sun May 31 2026
Valid 011200Z - 021200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE CENTRAL PLAINS...
...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms with large hail and severe wind gusts are expected
Monday afternoon and evening across parts of the central Plains.
Isolated severe wind gusts and hail will also be possible from the
parts of the lower to mid Missouri Valley and northern Ozarks
southeastward into the mid Mississippi Valley and Southeast.
...Central Plains/Mid Missouri Valley...
Mid-level heights will rise on Monday across the central U.S. as
southwesterly mid-level flow remains in place over the Rockies and
High Plains. At the surface, a low will deepen in far southwest
Kansas, with upslope easterly flow in place over much of the central
Plains. An axis of low-level moisture and instability is forecast to
setup from central Kansas west-northwestward into northeastern
Colorado, where surface dewpoints will be mostly in the 50s F. As
surface temperatures warm during the day, convective initiation will
take place in the higher terrain of east-central Colorado.
Additional storms are expected to develop further east across the
central High Plains along and near the instability axis.
Forecast soundings near the instability axis at 00Z have MLCAPE in
the 1500 to 2000 J/kg range with 0-6 km shear near 40 knots. In
addition, 700-500 mb lapse rates are forecast to be near 8 C/km.
This environment will support supercells with large hail and severe
wind gusts. The potential for severe wind gusts should increase
during the evening as a cluster of cells move east-northeastward
across the central High Plains.
Further east and northeast into parts of eastern Kansas, eastern
Nebraska and eastern South Dakota, the presence of the mid-level
ridge will keep convective coverage more isolated. Beneath the
ridge, surface dewpoints are forecast to be from the mid 60s F north
to the lower 70s F south, which will result in an axis of moderate
to strong instability by afternoon. If storms can initiate and
persist in spite of the weak forcing, then a severe threat would be
expected. Severe wind gusts and hail would be the primary threats.
...Lower Missouri Valley/Northern Ozarks/Mid Mississippi
Valley/Southeast...
A large-scale mid-level cyclonic flow pattern will be in place on
Monday across much of the eastern U.S. At the surface, a moist
airmass will be located from the lower Missouri Valley southeastward
into the mid Mississippi Valley and Southeast. Surface dewpoints
will be in the upper 60s F to lower 70s F. This will contribute to
an axis of moderate to strong instability by afternoon. Some model
forecasts move a shortwave trough, and an associated morning
convective system southward across the mid Mississippi Valley. Other
solutions keep convective coverage more isolated. This points to
spatial uncertainty concerning any severe threat. If the more
aggressive solutions pan out, then the wind-damage and hail threat
could be greatest from parts of western Tennessee southward into the
central Gulf Coast states. An isolated wind-damage and hail threat
may also extend eastward into northern Georgia and South Carolina,
along an east-to-west axis of instability.
..Broyles.. 05/31/2026
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SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0229 AM CDT Sun May 31 2026
Valid 021200Z - 031200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS...
...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms with isolated large hail and severe wind gusts are
expected on Tuesday across parts of the northern High Plains. Strong
wind gusts and hail will be possible in parts of the southern and
central High Plains, and along the eastern Gulf Coast.
...High Plains...
At mid-levels, a low and an associated shortwave trough will move
slowly eastward from the northern Rockies into the northern High
Plains on Tuesday. Ahead of the trough, southeasterly mid-level flow
will be in place over the top of a moist airmass in the northern
Plains. Surface dewpoints from the mid 50s to lower 60s F will
contribute the development of moderate instability across much of
the moist sector by afternoon. Model forecasts focus a zone of
maximized low-level convergence in the afternoon, ahead of a cold
front moving through the western Dakotas. Near this convergence
zone, scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop and move
east-northeastward into the warm sector during the late afternoon
and early evening.
Ahead of the front, forecast soundings near Bismarck in the late
afternoon have MLCAPE near 2000 J/kg with 0-6 km shear around 35
knots. This will support a potential for supercells with large hail.
In addition, 0-3 km lapse rates are forecast to become very steep in
the late afternoon, which will coincide with relatively large
temperature-dewpoint spreads. This will be favorable for severe wind
gusts. The severe threat is expected to continue into the early to
mid evening as multiple storms move eastward into the central
Dakotas.
Further south into parts of the southern and central High Plains, a
moist and unstable airmass will be in place beneath considerably
weaker mid-level flow. In most areas, large-scale ascent will remain
limited. However, a few storms could develop along zones of
maximized low-level convergence. These storms will likely have
access to moderate instability and enough deep-layer shear for an
isolated severe threat. A few strong wind gusts and hail will be
possible.
...Eastern Gulf Coast...
An upper-level trough will move south-southeastward across the
southern U.S. on Tuesday. At the surface, a cold front is forecast
to advance southward across southern Alabama and southern Georgia
during the day. South of the front, moderate instability is expected
to develop as surface temperatures warm. Steepening low-level lapse
rates in the afternoon should support an isolated wind-damage threat
with storms that form near and ahead of the front.
..Broyles.. 05/31/2026
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Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0342 AM CDT Sun May 31 2026
Valid 031200Z - 081200Z
...DISCUSSION...
...Wednesday/Day 4 to Friday/Day 6...
A mid-level trough is forecast to move into the northern High Plains
on Wednesday, into the upper Mississippi Valley on Thursday and into
the Great Lakes on Friday. A moist and unstable airmass is forecast
over the northern Plains, where a severe threat will be possible
during the afternoon and evening on both Wednesday and Thursday.
Large hail and severe wind gusts would be possible. The threat is
forecast to be concentrated ahead of a cold front passing through
the northern Plains. Considerable uncertainty exists concerning the
timing of the front.
In the wake of the trough, a shortwave ridge is forecast to move
into the northern Plains on Friday. Isolated severe storms will
again be possible across the Dakotas Friday afternoon within an
unstable airmass, but limited forcing would keep any severe threat
more localized.
Further south across the southern and central Plains, a relatively
broad corridor of moderate instability is forecast each afternoon
from Wednesday to Friday. However, forcing is expected to remain
limited, which should keep any severe threat isolated and
conditional.
...Saturday/Day 7 and Sunday/Day 8...
On Saturday and Sunday, a mid-level trough is forecast to move
eastward into the northwestern U.S., as a shortwave ridge moves from
the Great Plains into the Mississippi Valley. In the wake of the
ridge, a secondary trough is forecast to move through the southern
and central Plains. Isolated severe storms would be possible near
this trough in the afternoon and evening on both Saturday and
Sunday. However, the timing of the trough and distribution of
instability surrounding the trough is considerably uncertain at this
time.
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SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0105 AM CDT Sun May 31 2026
Valid 311200Z - 011200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
...Synopsis...
Fire weather concerns will be limited for today across the country.
Early-morning surface observations show the driest conditions across
eastern AZ into central NM where overnight RH values have struggled
to climb out of the teens. Very dry conditions will prevail across
AZ/NM for today (afternoon RH minimums in the single digits to low
teens), and fine fuel analyses and recent fire activity in NM
suggest that some fuels are favorable for fire spread. However,
recent guidance continues to suggest winds across the region will be
fairly light - generally 10-15 mph. This limits confidence in an
appreciable fire weather threat away from more prominent central NM
terrain features. Similarly, dry conditions will prevail across the
Great Lakes and upper MS River Valley region, but weak winds within
the dry air mass will modulate fire weather concerns. A swath of
elevated fire weather conditions will likely emerge across southeast
WY within a downslope flow regime, but recent rainfall has likely
improved fuel moisture content.
..Moore.. 05/31/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
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SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0106 AM CDT Sun May 31 2026
Valid 011200Z - 021200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
...Synopsis...
Fire weather concerns will continue to be limited for Monday across
the country. As with D1/Sunday, dry conditions will prevail across
the Southwest and portions of the Great Lakes where fuels will
remain fairly receptive. However, pressure gradient winds will
continue to be weak owing to building high pressure over the Great
Lakes and a combination of modest surface pressure falls and weak
low-level flow across the southern High Plains. While localized
elevated conditions appear possible in the lee of more prominent
terrain features across central and northern NM, the potential for
widespread fire weather concerns is low.
..Moore.. 05/31/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
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