RSS Mesoscale Discussions from Storm Prediction Center
No watches are valid as of Thu Feb 26 08:32:02 UTC 2026.
No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Thu Feb 26 08:32:02 UTC 2026.
SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1134 PM CST Wed Feb 25 2026
Valid 261200Z - 271200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI AND NORTHERN ALABAMA...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated-scattered thunderstorms are expected across portions of the
Gulf states into the Southeast. A few storms may produce hail across
portions of northern Mississippi into northern Alabama.
...Gulf States...
Water-vapor imagery depicts a well-defined short-wave trough digging
southeast across the central Plains. 500mb speed max associated with
this feature is forecast to translate across northern AR into the
Mid South by 18z before the short wave deamplifies as it approaches
the southern Appalachians. In response to this short wave, LLJ will
strengthen across GA into NC before advancing off the Middle
Atlantic coast by early evening. While low-level flow will weaken
considerably across the northern Gulf states, weak convergence is
expected to aid convective development along the trailing synoptic
front as it settles south during the afternoon. Latest model
guidance suggests modest boundary-layer heating will be noted across
the lower MS Valley into northern AL by mid afternoon such that
minimal inhibition will be present along the wind shift. Forecast
soundings exhibit MLCAPE on the order of 1000 J/kg as surface
temperatures rise through the upper 60s into the lower 70s. HREF
guidance supports this with isolated-scattered convection evolving
along the trailing boundary by 21z, especially the HRRR. Hail is the
primary concern with these storms through early evening.
..Darrow/Chalmers.. 02/26/2026
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SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1250 AM CST Thu Feb 26 2026
Valid 271200Z - 281200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
General thunderstorms are likely over parts of the Southeast on
Friday. Severe thunderstorms are not currently forecast.
... Discussion ...
A deamplifying shortwave tough is forecast to move across the
Southeast through the period, embedded within a broader regime of
mid-level toughing across the eastern US. This large-scale setup
will maintain modest ascent across the Gulf States and South
Atlantic coast. At the surface, a weak cold front will continue to
sag slowly south toward the Gulf Coast and northern Florida
Peninsula.
Ongoing precipitation and cloud cover at the start of the period
across central Alabama and Georgia are expected to persist,
gradually shifting south and east through the period. While
thermodynamic conditions support thunderstorms, the overall severe
threat should remain low due to weak low-level convergence and
limited instability.
... Southern Alabama/Georgia and the Florida Panhandle ...
Seasonably rich low-level moisture characterized by dewpoints in the
low 60Fs will be in place ahead of the sagging surface boundary.
Despite surface temperatures warming into the low 70Fs, widespread
cloud cover and ongoing precipitation will likely limit overall
diurnal heating.
Modified soundings suggest a marginally unstable environments with
MLCAPE ranging from 500-1000 J/kg. These buoyancy profiles appear
tall and skinny, which, combined with the lack of stronger forcing,
will limit the potential for robust updrafts. While hodographs are
notably elongated, suggesting deep-layer shear should be sufficient
for some storm organization, weak low-level kinematic fields and
poor low-level convergence should preclude a sustained, organized
severe threat.
... Florida Peninsula ...
South of the primary frontal zone, additional thunderstorm
development appears possible during the day on Friday across the
Florida peninsula. Forecast soundings across the peninsula indicate
the presence of a CAPE robbing capping inversion around 700 mb,
although this inversion lifts during the day in response to subtle
height falls associated with the synoptic trough. The associated
warmer mid-level temperatures associated with the capping inversion
will limit MLCAPE to between 500-1000 J/kg. Additionally, hodograph
lengths decrease with southward extent, indicative of weakening
deep-layer shear. Given this type of environment and the lack of
focused forcing, any thunderstorm should remain disorganized and
below severe limits.
..Marsh.. 02/26/2026
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SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0230 AM CST Thu Feb 26 2026
Valid 281200Z - 011200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms will be possible across the Florida Peninsula and
across northern California and southern Oregon on Saturday.
Additional thunderstorms may be possible across the Southern Plains
early Sunday morning.
... Discussion ...
A low-amplitude ridge across the Great Basin/Southwest and broad
troughing across the eastern US will result in a continuation of the
persistent northwest flow regime across the central US. To the west,
moist southwesterly flow across northern California and southern
Oregon will slowly shift south as a Pacific low approaches the
coast.
At the surface, a weak front will sag south across the Florida
peninsula, while a return to southerly winds across the southern
Plains will initiate low-level moisture return into Oklahoma.
Coincident, an arctic front will push south through the central
Plains into the southern Plains as an arctic high builds into the
upper Midwest.
... Florida Peninsula ...
A remnant frontal boundary will linger across the central Florida
peninsula, where conditions will remain favorable for at least
isolated thunderstorms. To the south of the front, surface
temperatures should warm into the upper-60Fs to low-70Fs with
surface dewpoints in the low-to-mid-60Fs. This should yield MUCAPE
between 1000-1500 J/kg.
While forecast hodographs are expected to lengthen as compared to
the prior day, supporting some storm organization, several limiting
factors exist. Weak mid-level lapse rates and poor low-level
convergence cast doubt on the overall coverage of thunderstorm
development. Additionally, forecast soundings suggest subsidence
across portions of the peninsula during peak heating, which would
further limit convective development.
... Northern California and Southern Oregon ...
Moist southwesterly advection will increase/persist ahead of an
approaching Pacific trough. Although instability is rather limited,
it does appear to be non-zero. The combination of a moistening
troposphere, increased ascent with the approaching trough, and
non-zero instability may support a couple of thunderstorms.
... Southern Plains ...
Moist warm-air advection is anticipated to become established
Saturday night as a southerly low-level jet develops across the
Plains. Increasing moisture return will drive surface dewpoints
perhaps as high as the upper-50Fs or even low-60Fs. As the arctic
front slows and encounters this moistening airmass, elevated
thunderstorms are expected to develop within the warm-air advection
regime.
Kinematic profiles will feature very long hodographs and would
support updraft organization with potential for at least marginally
severe hail. However, this threat is highly conditioned on the
quality and magnitude of the moisture return. At this time will
defer the introduction of hail probabilities to subsequent outlooks.
However, if upper-50F dewpoints are realized, enough elevated
instability may develop to support the introduction of hail
probabilities at a later time.
..Marsh.. 02/26/2026
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SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook CORR 1
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0202 AM CST Thu Feb 26 2026
Valid 261200Z - 271200Z
CORRECTED FOR GEOGRAPHIC DESCRIPTION
...Synopsis...
...Portions of South-Central Texas...
A weak, dry cold front will bring RH values of 10-20% to portions of
south-central Texas this afternoon as a modest surface low shifts
south and east across Texas. A moderately strong pressure gradient
on the western/southwestern periphery of the low will support
sustained surface winds of 15-20 mph (locally higher in
terrain-favored areas). With warm, dry antecedent conditions
yielding receptive fine fuels, this combination of winds and RH will
support Elevated fire weather conditions this afternoon.
...Portions of the Central and Southern High Plains...
A low pressure system pushing eastward across southern Canada today
will couple with building high pressure across portions of western
Wyoming and northwestern Colorado to yield a strengthening
cross-terrain surface pressure gradient over portions of the Central
Rockies. This setup will favor dry, northwesterly downslope winds of
15-25 mph with locally higher gusts and RH values of 10-20% atop
receptive fuels. These conditions will support Elevated fire weather
conditions from portions of northeastern New Mexico northward to
southeastern Wyoming and the Nebraska Panhandle.
...Central and Southeastern Montana...
Similar to areas farther south across the central High Plains, a
strong, cross-terrain surface pressure gradient will support at
least a few hours of strong downslope winds. However, given recent
light precipitation and forecast RH values of 20-30%, any elevated
fire weather concerns are expected to remain local.
..Chalmers/Barnes.. 02/26/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
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SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0150 AM CST Thu Feb 26 2026
Valid 271200Z - 281200Z
...Synopsis...
...Portions of eastern and southeastern Wyoming into northeastern
Colorado and the Nebraska Panhandle...
Elevated to locally critical fire weather conditions are expected
Friday as strong mid-level flow and a 40-kt northwesterly 700 mb jet
will support strong northwesterly downslope winds in the lee of the
Laramie Range. Guidance is in generally good agreement regarding
20-30 mph sustained surface winds with gusts up to 35-45 mph
(locally higher in terrain-favored areas) overlapping RH values of
15-20%. Some guidance indicates even lower RH values of 10-15%
across this area, but uncertainty regarding how low RH values will
drop precludes the addition of a Critical area at this time.
...Portions of central and east-central New Mexico...
Lower RH values of 10-15% are expected to be more common from
northeastern Colorado southward into eastern New Mexico. Winds are
expected to remain generally light across this region, with the
exception being across portions of central into east-central New
Mexico where a belt of modest northwesterly mid-level flow is
expected to support dry, downslope winds in the lee of the Sandia
Manzano Mountains. Elevated highlights have been added where
sustained northwesterly surface winds of 15-20 mph (locally higher)
are expected to overlap RH values of 10-20% Friday afternoon.
..Chalmers/Barnes.. 02/26/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
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