RSS Mesoscale Discussions from Storm Prediction Center
WW 498 SEVERE TSTM NC VA CW 191700Z - 200000Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 498
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
100 PM EDT Sun Jul 19 2026
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of
Central and eastern North Carolina
Southern Virginia
Coastal Waters
* Effective this Sunday afternoon and evening from 100 PM until
800 PM EDT.
* Primary threats include...
Scattered damaging wind gusts to 65 mph possible
SUMMARY...Multiple clusters of thunderstorms are expected this
afternoon along several subtle boundaries across southern Virginia
and North Carolina. The strongest storms will be capable of
producing occasional wind damage into this evening.
The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 75
statute miles north and south of a line from 10 miles southwest of
Greensboro NC to 40 miles east of Elizabeth City NC. For a complete
depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update
(WOUS64 KWNS WOU8).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.
&&
AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
0.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 55 knots. A
few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 550. Mean storm motion vector
29020.
...Thompson
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WW 0498 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 498
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 W GSO TO
20 SSW CHO.
..WENDT..07/19/26
ATTN...WFO...RAH...MHX...AKQ...RNK...
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 498
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
NCC001-007-013-015-029-031-033-037-041-049-051-053-055-057-061-
063-065-067-069-073-077-079-081-083-085-091-093-095-101-103-105-
107-117-123-125-127-131-133-135-137-139-143-145-147-151-153-157-
163-165-167-169-177-181-183-185-187-191-195-192040-
NC
. NORTH CAROLINA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ALAMANCE ANSON BEAUFORT
BERTIE CAMDEN CARTERET
CASWELL CHATHAM CHOWAN
CRAVEN CUMBERLAND CURRITUCK
DARE DAVIDSON DUPLIN
DURHAM EDGECOMBE FORSYTH
FRANKLIN GATES GRANVILLE
GREENE GUILFORD HALIFAX
HARNETT HERTFORD HOKE
HYDE JOHNSTON JONES
LEE LENOIR MARTIN
MONTGOMERY MOORE NASH
NORTHAMPTON ONSLOW ORANGE
PAMLICO PASQUOTANK PERQUIMANS
PERSON PITT RANDOLPH
RICHMOND ROCKINGHAM SAMPSON
SCOTLAND STANLY STOKES
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MD 1660 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS/PIEDMONT
Mesoscale Discussion 1660
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0211 PM CDT Sun Jul 19 2026
Areas affected...Southern Appalachians/Piedmont
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 191911Z - 192115Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent
SUMMARY...Isolated wind damage is possible with scattered storms
this afternoon. Lack of organization should preclude watch issuance
this afternoon.
DISCUSSION...Convection over the course of the last couple of hours
has remained rather weak with a few cells becoming briefly
marginally severe. Area VAD data shows 0-6 km shear of 15-20 kt.
This should continue to promote disorganized cells that may
occasionally pulse in intensity. A corridor of low 90s F
temperatures and steeper low-level lapse rates in northern Georgia
into Upstate South Carolina could see a locally greater risk of
isolated wind damage. Barring greater cold pool organization of
activity, a watch is not anticipated this afternoon.
..Wendt/Thompson.. 07/19/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...RNK...CAE...GSP...MRX...FFC...OHX...
LAT...LON 33178413 33628514 34738545 35038547 35938474 36518398
36578316 36628259 36508181 35998096 35328058 34698038
34148057 33178413
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
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SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1124 AM CDT Sun Jul 19 2026
Valid 191630Z - 201200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING ACROSS PARTS TO THE SOUTHEAST AND THROUGH TONIGHT
ACROSS THE DAKOTAS AND MINNESOTA...
...SUMMARY...
Scattered damaging wind gusts are possible this afternoon over
portions of the Southeast. Scattered severe thunderstorms capable
of severe wind gusts and large hail are possible late this afternoon
through tonight from the Dakotas into Minnesota.
...Dakotas/MN this afternoon into tonight...
A midlevel trough over southern SK will suppress the northern extent
of the ridge over the Great Plains as an associated surface
trough/front moves into ND this afternoon. Strong surface
heating/mixing and weak ascent along the wind shift could support
thunderstorm development after about 22z beginning in south central
ND and expanding into northern SD and northeast ND through late
evening. The initial storms will be relatively high based with
forecast hodographs favoring splitting supercells capable of
producing significant outflow gusts (80+ mph) and isolated very
large hail (2-3+ inch diameter). Storms are expected to evolve into
a cluster or two tonight while spreading east-southeastward toward
western MN with a continued threat for occasional severe outflow
gusts and large hail.
...Carolinas and vicinity this afternoon/evening...
A weak cold front will continue to drift southward across VA/KY
toward NC through the afternoon, in association with the southern
periphery of a midlevel trough moving over the Mid-Atlantic and
southern New England. The southern extent of ~30 kt midlevel flow
overlaps the baroclinic zone and northern extent of the unstable
warm sector. Though midlevel lapse rates are not steep per 12z
soundings, surface temperatures warming into the 90-95 F range with
dewpoints in the low-mid 70s will drive MLCAPE of 2500-3500 J/kg
with negligible convective inhibition and steepening low-level lapse
rates. Scattered thunderstorm development is likely by early-mid
afternoon along the differential heating zone near the cold front,
as well as along a subtle surface trough across eastern NC.
Multicell clusters are the primary expected storm mode with the
potential to produce occasional wind damage with downbursts this
afternoon/evening. Vertical shear will be a little stronger across
southeast VA/northeast NC where some storm organization will be
possible.
...Tropical Depression 2 in the eastern Gulf...
NHC has initiated advisories on Tropical Depression 2 in the eastern
Gulf, centered roughly 130 n mi west of Tampa as of 15z. Though
some outer eastern bands will affect the FL Gulf coast this
afternoon, it appears that enhancements to flow/shear are too
marginal to support any substantial threat of outer band
supercells/tornadoes along the FL Gulf coast through tonight.
Still, isolated strong outflow gusts will be possible with broken
thunderstorm bands this afternoon/evening across central/north FL
and south GA.
...AL area this afternoon...
Strong surface heating to the west and south of ongoing storm
clusters in northern and eastern AL will contribute to
destabilization and the potential for stronger storms within the
clusters that will spread south/southwestward through the afternoon.
Precipitation loading and steepening low-level lapse rates could
support isolated downbursts and wind damage with the strongest
storms.
..Thompson/Chalmers.. 07/19/2026
Read more
SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0253 PM CDT Sun Jul 19 2026
Valid 192000Z - 201200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AND PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST AND MID-ATLANTIC...
...SUMMARY...
Scattered damaging wind gusts are possible this afternoon over
portions of the Southeast. Scattered severe thunderstorms capable
of severe wind gusts and large hail are possible late this afternoon
through tonight from the Dakotas into Minnesota.
...20z Update...
The previous forecast largely remains on track with only minor
adjustments made based on recent convective trends and latest
high-res ensemble guidance.
...Georgia and Mid-Atlantic...
Across northern Georgia, convection has thus far exhibited mostly
pulse-like behavior with transient and weak updrafts. Regional
velocity imagery shows occasional swaths of strong winds embedded
within downbursts, so some localized damaging wind threat will
likely persist across the region through early evening given hot
low-level conditions surrounding ongoing storms. However, based on
these observed trends, limited clustering, and weak convective
signals in latest guidance, the 15% wind probabilities have been
trimmed eastward to align with more favorable thermodynamic
conditions (particularly steeper low-level lapse rates) and where
guidance continues to show some thunderstorm potential through late
afternoon. See MCD #1660 for additional near-term forecast
information.
Further east, a mix of thunderstorm clusters and loosely organized
cells has been observed with occasional reports of wind damage noted
over the past few hours. Based on recent mesoanalyses, the best
thermodynamic and kinematic environment remain across eastern VA/NC,
and consideration was made for introducing 5% hail probabilities.
However, MRMS VIL/MESH trends show relatively transient and weak
hail cores, suggesting that damaging winds will remain the
predominant threat through early evening.
...Northern High Plains...
Latest HRRR/RRFS time-lagged ensembles continue to show a strong
signal for severe wind across south-central ND and far northern SD
later this evening as thunderstorms develop along the approaching
cold front. Observational trends seem to support this as low 70
dewpoints continue to spread north into ND and pre-frontal cumulus
begins to develop along the western SD/ND border. Aside from minor
adjustments of probability/intensity lines to better align with
recent guidance and satellite trends, forecast thoughts outlined in
the previous discussion (below) remain on track.
..Moore.. 07/19/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1124 AM CDT Sun Jul 19 2026/
...Dakotas/MN this afternoon into tonight...
A midlevel trough over southern SK will suppress the northern extent
of the ridge over the Great Plains as an associated surface
trough/front moves into ND this afternoon. Strong surface
heating/mixing and weak ascent along the wind shift could support
thunderstorm development after about 22z beginning in south central
ND and expanding into northern SD and northeast ND through late
evening. The initial storms will be relatively high based with
forecast hodographs favoring splitting supercells capable of
producing significant outflow gusts (80+ mph) and isolated very
large hail (2-3+ inch diameter). Storms are expected to evolve into
a cluster or two tonight while spreading east-southeastward toward
western MN with a continued threat for occasional severe outflow
gusts and large hail.
...Carolinas and vicinity this afternoon/evening...
A weak cold front will continue to drift southward across VA/KY
toward NC through the afternoon, in association with the southern
periphery of a midlevel trough moving over the Mid-Atlantic and
southern New England. The southern extent of ~30 kt midlevel flow
overlaps the baroclinic zone and northern extent of the unstable
warm sector. Though midlevel lapse rates are not steep per 12z
soundings, surface temperatures warming into the 90-95 F range with
dewpoints in the low-mid 70s will drive MLCAPE of 2500-3500 J/kg
with negligible convective inhibition and steepening low-level lapse
rates. Scattered thunderstorm development is likely by early-mid
afternoon along the differential heating zone near the cold front,
as well as along a subtle surface trough across eastern NC.
Multicell clusters are the primary expected storm mode with the
potential to produce occasional wind damage with downbursts this
afternoon/evening. Vertical shear will be a little stronger across
southeast VA/northeast NC where some storm organization will be
possible.
...Tropical Depression 2 in the eastern Gulf...
NHC has initiated advisories on Tropical Depression 2 in the eastern
Gulf, centered roughly 130 n mi west of Tampa as of 15z. Though
some outer eastern bands will affect the FL Gulf coast this
afternoon, it appears that enhancements to flow/shear are too
marginal to support any substantial threat of outer band
supercells/tornadoes along the FL Gulf coast through tonight.
Still, isolated strong outflow gusts will be possible with broken
thunderstorm bands this afternoon/evening across central/north FL
and south GA.
...AL area this afternoon...
Strong surface heating to the west and south of ongoing storm
clusters in northern and eastern AL will contribute to
destabilization and the potential for stronger storms within the
clusters that will spread south/southwestward through the afternoon.
Precipitation loading and steepening low-level lapse rates could
support isolated downbursts and wind damage with the strongest
storms.
Read more
SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1233 PM CDT Sun Jul 19 2026
Valid 201200Z - 211200Z
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM IOW ACROSS
WISCONSIN AND INTO WESTERN UPPER MICHIGAN...
...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are probable across portions of the Upper
Midwest and Great Lakes vicinity on Monday. Swaths of damaging
winds, large hail, and a few tornadoes will all be possible.
Isolated strong to damaging gusts may occur over parts of the
Carolinas.
...From IA across WI and into Upper MI...
A substantial shortwave trough will dive southeastward across the
upper MS Valley and toward the Great Lakes, with a broad area of
50-70 kt midlevel northwesterlies. Upper-level winds will be
stronger, with over 100 kt at 300 mb from MN into WI. Cool
temperatures aloft will also result in steep midlevel lapse rates
over 7 C/km.
A few early day storms may produce hail over eastern MN into western
WI as elevated instability will be strong and effective shear over
50 kt. This activity is expected to wane during the day, with new
storms developing along the cold front as it pushes into western
Upper MI, WI, and northern IA.
Initial storms should primarily be supercells given such strong
shear. A corridor of tornado risk is evident east of the instability
axis from IA across WI and into Upper MI, and effective SRH may
exceed 300 m2/s2. Surface winds may veer with time, but any
rightward movement off the hodograph may lead to a large increase of
effective SRH for some of the larger supercells.
A conditional risk of a strong tornado also exists from far
northeast IA across much of WI. Here, 0-3 km shear will be strong,
with 50 kt winds at 700 mb. Several models indicate a VGP at or
above 0.4.
With time, some of the cells may bow southeastward with corridors of
significant wind damage and hail possible.
...Southern VA into NC...
Daytime heating, 70s F dewpoints and surface convergence near a weak
low will aid storm formation from western into central NC after 20Z.
MLCAPE over 2000 J/kg, PWAT over 2.00", and westerly flow aloft near
20 kt will lead to multicellular storm mode with locally damaging
wind gusts.
..Jewell.. 07/19/2026
Read more
SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0234 PM CDT Sun Jul 19 2026
Valid 211200Z - 221200Z
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF
KENTUCKY NORTHEASTWARD INTO WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA...
...SUMMARY...
Numerous severe thunderstorms are expected across a broad region
from the Ohio Valley into the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast on Tuesday.
All severe hazards are possible, but swaths of damaging wind gusts
should be the primary severe risk Tuesday afternoon into the
nighttime hours.
...OH Valley into the Mid Atlantic and Northeast...
Severe storms will be likely over a large area Tuesday, from parts
of the Midwest and Ohio valley extending across the Mid Atlantic as
increasing winds aloft overspread a large area of low-level
moisture.
A mean upper trough will remain over much of region, with various
waves rotating around. A leading wave will aid storm development
during the day from eastern VA northward into southwest New England,
well ahead of the main cold front to the west. Southwest flow at 850
mb of 30-40 kt will support northward moisture advection as winds
aloft increase, and storms should form by early to mid afternoon
within a pre-frontal trough. Veering winds with height should
support scattered supercells or storm clusters, and damaging winds
or isolated tornadoes may occur.
Meanwhile, an area of greater severe potential will develop
immediately near and ahead of a cold front which should extend
roughly from northern OH/IN into southern IL during the afternoon.
This region will be ahead of a stronger mid/upper jet in a northwest
flow regime. Dewpoints are expected to be in the 70s F with MLCAPE
over 3000 J/kg and effective shear of 40-50 kt. The long hodographs
should support a dominant supercell storm mode, with large hail, a
few tornadoes, and damaging winds all possible from late afternoon
into the night.
The greatest risk area is currently forecast from parts of Kentucky
and Indiana across Ohio, West Virginia, and western Pennsylvania.
However, these areas will likely be adjusted spatially as
predictability increases in later updates.
..Jewell.. 07/19/2026
Read more
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1136 AM CDT Sun Jul 19 2026
Valid 191700Z - 201200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
The ongoing forecast remains on track. See the previous discussion
for more information.
..Elizalde-Garcia.. 07/19/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0159 AM CDT Sun Jul 19 2026/
...Synopsis...
An upper ridge will build over the Northwest in the wake of a
departing midlevel trough. While warm and dry conditions will
continue across the region, generally weak surface winds will limit
fire-weather concerns compared to previous days. Locally elevated
fire-weather conditions are still possible within
terrain-favored/wind-prone areas, given dry/receptive fuels.
Elsewhere, a limited overlap of dry/windy conditions atop receptive
fuels will reduce fire-weather concerns across the CONUS.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0239 PM CDT Sun Jul 19 2026
Valid 201200Z - 211200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
High resolution guidance depicts suffusing high-based showers over
northern CA and central-eastern OR on Day 2/Monday. Passing
shortwave disturbances may permit a few lightning strikes across the
region; however, limited instability precludes Isolated Dry
Thunderstorm highlights. Antecedent dry boundary layer conditions
will favor evaporation, hindering accumulating precipitation at the
surface and keeping fuels dry.
..Elizalde-Garcia.. 07/19/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0159 AM CDT Sun Jul 19 2026/
...Synopsis...
Along the northwestern periphery of an expansive upper ridge over
the West, a weak midlevel disturbance and accompanying influx of
midlevel moisture will overspread parts of the Northwest on Monday.
While this should promote isolated to widely scattered high-based
showers, the latest forecast soundings suggest that EL temperatures
will be too warm for lightning with this activity. While an isolated
strike or two cannot be completely ruled out over the higher
terrain, confidence is currently too low to introduce an Isolated
Dry Thunderstorm area. Elsewhere, a limited overlap of dry/windy
conditions atop receptive fuels will reduce fire-weather concerns
across the CONUS.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
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