RSS Mesoscale Discussions from Storm Prediction Center
No watches are valid as of Thu Jan 29 06:56:02 UTC 2026.
No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Thu Jan 29 06:56:02 UTC 2026.
SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1141 PM CST Wed Jan 28 2026
Valid 291200Z - 301200Z
...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are not expected today or tonight.
...Synopsis/Discussion...
A convectively inactive scenario will persist across the CONUS with
virtually nil thunderstorm potential. Longwave trough will persist
east of the Rockies with associated cold/continental trajectories
prevalent, with upper ridging over the Rockies and Intermountain
West. Multiple shortwave troughs will influence the Pacific
Northwest, but the potential for lighting-producing convection is
likely to remain low even in near-coastal areas given the forecast
thermodynamic profiles.
..Guyer/Thornton.. 01/29/2026
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SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1252 AM CST Thu Jan 29 2026
Valid 301200Z - 311200Z
...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms appear unlikely Friday through Friday night.
...Synopsis...
Large-scale ridging will generally be maintained across the western
US as a broad, multi-component upper trough over the eastern half of
the US is forecast to rapidly consolidate and strengthen Friday into
early Saturday. A prominent shortwave impulse emanating from
southern Canada will merge with several smaller perturbations over
the southern MS Valley and Gulf Coast vicinity. The net result will
be a large and intense positive tilt upper trough over the
southeastern CONUS. This strong trough and 100+ kt mid-level flow
will aide the development of an initially weak surface cyclone over
the eastern Gulf and FL Peninsula. The low will rapidly deepen late
Friday into early Saturday off the Atlantic coast as a cold front
moves offshore. Ahead of the front, modest low-level
moistening/destabilization is possible over parts of southern FL and
the keys. However, this appears short lived and without more
substantial ascent/destabilization, thunderstorms are unlikely.
..Lyons.. 01/29/2026
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SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1142 PM CST Wed Jan 28 2026
Valid 291200Z - 301200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
...Synopsis...
A shortwave trough will move across the central Rockies today, with
a surface low developing across eastern Colorado. A mostly dry cold
front will shift southward across the Southern Plains. Some period
of increasing surface wind (southerly becoming west and northwest as
the front passes) will be possible. Temperatures will remain cool,
with another reinforcing shot of cold arctic air behind the front.
The continued cool conditions in addition to snow pack and generally
wet fuels should keep fire concerns low.
Across portions of the southern Florida Peninsula, dry conditions
will continue. Afternoon relative humidity reductions to around
20-25 percent will be likely. Winds are expected to be mostly light,
which will keep fire concerns low.
..Thornton.. 01/29/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
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SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1143 PM CST Wed Jan 28 2026
Valid 301200Z - 311200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
...Synopsis...
Fire weather concerns will be negligible on D2/Friday. A surface
high will build in across the central US, further reinforcing the
cold arctic air southward into the Plains and Missouri/Mississippi
River Valleys. This pattern will favor generally light winds and
with the very cold air mass will keep fire concerns low across the
CONUS.
..Thornton.. 01/29/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
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