RSS Mesoscale Discussions from Storm Prediction Center
No watches are valid as of Sun Feb 8 06:46:02 UTC 2026.
No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Sun Feb 8 06:46:02 UTC 2026.
SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1133 PM CST Sat Feb 07 2026
Valid 081200Z - 091200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Very isolated thunderstorms are possible along a portion of the
coastal Pacific Northwest tonight.
...Discussion...
A low-latitude, mid-level low will drift southeastward, west of
central to southern Baja CA. Thunderstorm potential downstream of
this wave is expected to remain south of the AZ border area today.
In the Pacific Northwest, a series of lower-amplitude shortwave
impulses should progress eastward through early morning Monday.
Instability will be quite limited until this evening/tonight as a
plume of steep mid-level lapse rates spreads southeastward,
eventually across most of the OR coast. CAM consensus indicates
potential for a band of low-topped convection spreading towards
parts of the OR/WA coast tonight. Buoyancy should be scant at most,
but a few lightning flashes remain plausible.
..Grams.. 02/08/2026
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SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1136 PM CST Sat Feb 07 2026
Valid 091200Z - 101200Z
...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are not expected on Monday.
...Synopsis...
An upper shortwave trough will shift east across portions of
northern Mexico on Monday. Forecast guidance has slowed in the
eastward progression of this system compared to yesterday. Warm
midlevel temperatures and generally poor vertical moisture profiles
will result in scant elevated instability toward southern AZ/NM and
TX Rio Grande vicinity. Any thunderstorm activity associated with
the upper low is likely to remain south of the U.S. border.
Elsewhere, modified Gulf moisture will spread northward across
portions of south-central U.S. beneath an upper ridge. This boundary
layer moisture will remain shallow, and dewpoints generally below 60
F. Poor thermodynamic profiles and otherwise stable conditions will
preclude thunderstorm potential.
..Leitman.. 02/08/2026
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SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1244 AM CST Sun Feb 08 2026
Valid 101200Z - 111200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Tuesday.
...Synopsis...
An upper shortwave trough will move east from northern Mexico toward
central/eastern TX on Tuesday. This will result in increasing
west/southwesterly flow across the southern Plains toward the TN
Valley. At the surface, low pressure over OK will meander eastward
and weaken. Meanwhile, southerly low-level flow ahead of the low
will transport modest Gulf moisture north across eastern TX toward
the Lower MS Valley vicinity. Moistening thermodynamic profiles and
midlevel cooling ahead of the trough will support weak elevated
instability across far western TX. Isolated thunderstorms may
develop northeast from northern Mexico into western TX. This
activity is not expected to be severe.
Overnight, warm advection will result in elevated convection ahead
of a southward sagging cold front from the southern Ozarks toward
the TN Valley. While west/southwesterly flow will allow for
moistening in the midlevels, cooling aloft will be modest and how
much destabilization may occur is uncertain. A few elevated
thunderstorms could be possible late in the period over parts of the
Mid-South and/or TN Valley, but confidence in 10 percent coverage is
low, precluding a general thunder delineation.
..Leitman.. 02/08/2026
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