RSS Mesoscale Discussions from Storm Prediction Center
WW 440 SEVERE TSTM WI LM 022020Z - 030300Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 440
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
320 PM CDT Thu Jul 2 2026
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of
Southern Wisconsin
Lake Michigan
* Effective this Thursday afternoon and evening from 320 PM until
1000 PM CDT.
* Primary threats include...
Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible
Isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter possible
A tornado or two possible
SUMMARY...A large cluster of thunderstorms, including a few
supercells will track eastward across southern Wisconsin this
afternoon and evening. Damaging winds and large hail are the main
concerns, although a tornado or two is also possible.
The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 50
statute miles north and south of a line from 10 miles west southwest
of Lonerock WI to 20 miles north northeast of Milwaukee WI. For a
complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline
update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU0).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.
&&
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 437...WW 438...WW 439...
AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A
few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector
26025.
...Hart
Read more
WW 439 SEVERE TSTM SD 021900Z - 030200Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 439
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
200 PM CDT Thu Jul 2 2026
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of
Central and Eastern South Dakota
* Effective this Thursday afternoon and evening from 200 PM until
900 PM CDT.
* Primary threats include...
Scattered damaging winds and isolated significant gusts to 75
mph likely
Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2.5
inches in diameter likely
A tornado or two possible
SUMMARY...Thunderstorms are rapidly intensifying over central South
Dakota near a surface boundary. These storms will track slowly
eastward through the watch area during the afternoon, with a risk of
large hail and damaging wind gusts.
The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 45
statute miles north and south of a line from 40 miles west southwest
of Pierre SD to 30 miles north northeast of Brookings SD. For a
complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline
update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU9).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.
&&
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 437...WW 438...
AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
2.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 65 knots. A
few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 550. Mean storm motion vector
26025.
...Hart
Read more
WW 438 SEVERE TSTM AL MS TN 021840Z - 030100Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 438
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
140 PM CDT Thu Jul 2 2026
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of
Northern Alabama
Northeast Mississippi
Western and Middle Tennessee
* Effective this Thursday afternoon and evening from 140 PM until
800 PM CDT.
* Primary threats include...
Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely
Isolated large hail events to 1 inch in diameter possible
SUMMARY...Widely scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop
this afternoon in a hot and humid air mass. These slow-moving
storms will pose a risk of locally damaging wind gusts.
The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 70
statute miles east and west of a line from 10 miles west northwest
of Fort Campbell KY to 25 miles south of Huntsville AL. For a
complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline
update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU8).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.
&&
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 437...
AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
1 inch. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few
cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector
09015.
...Hart
Read more
WW 437 SEVERE TSTM IA WI 021745Z - 030000Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 437
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1245 PM CDT Thu Jul 2 2026
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of
Northeast Iowa
Southwest Wisconsin
* Effective this Thursday afternoon and evening from 1245 PM
until 700 PM CDT.
* Primary threats include...
Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely
Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2
inches in diameter possible
A tornado or two possible
SUMMARY...Thunderstorms are intensifying over north-central Iowa.
These storms will track eastward along and north of a surface
boundary into a strongly unstable air mass. Damaging winds and
large hail are possible.
The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 45
statute miles north and south of a line from 25 miles south of Mason
City IA to 20 miles northeast of Dubuque IA. For a complete
depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update
(WOUS64 KWNS WOU7).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.
&&
AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A
few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector
26025.
...Hart
Read more
WW 0440 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0440 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET
Read more
WW 0439 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 439
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..BENTLEY..07/02/26
ATTN...WFO...FSD...ABR...
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 439
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
SDC003-005-011-015-017-025-029-039-049-051-057-059-065-069-073-
075-077-085-097-107-111-115-117-119-022140-
SD
. SOUTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
AURORA BEADLE BROOKINGS
BRULE BUFFALO CLARK
CODINGTON DEUEL FAULK
GRANT HAMLIN HAND
HUGHES HYDE JERAULD
JONES KINGSBURY LYMAN
MINER POTTER SANBORN
SPINK STANLEY SULLY
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
Read more
WW 0438 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0438 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET
Read more
WW 0437 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 437
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..BENTLEY..07/02/26
ATTN...WFO...ARX...DVN...DMX...
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 437
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
IAC005-011-013-017-019-023-037-043-045-055-061-065-067-069-075-
083-089-097-105-113-127-131-171-191-022140-
IA
. IOWA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ALLAMAKEE BENTON BLACK HAWK
BREMER BUCHANAN BUTLER
CHICKASAW CLAYTON CLINTON
DELAWARE DUBUQUE FAYETTE
FLOYD FRANKLIN GRUNDY
HARDIN HOWARD JACKSON
JONES LINN MARSHALL
MITCHELL TAMA WINNESHIEK
WIC023-043-022140-
WI
. WISCONSIN COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CRAWFORD GRANT
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
Read more
MD 1446 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 437... FOR CENTRAL TO NORTHEAST IOWA
Mesoscale Discussion 1446
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0353 PM CDT Thu Jul 02 2026
Areas affected...central to northeast Iowa
Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 437...
Valid 022053Z - 022230Z
The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 437
continues.
SUMMARY...A cluster of supercells across northeast Iowa will
continue this afternoon and into the evening.
DISCUSSION...Scattered large hail and wind gusts have been reported
across northeast Iowa this afternoon with a cluster of supercells.
Additional development continues on the southwest flank where
dewpoints are in the mid 70s with temperatures near 90 F, yielding
MLCAPE near 3000 J/kg per SPC mesoanalysis. Mid-level flow around 40
to 45 knots (sampled by the KDMX VWP) is supporting supercell
structures and will continue to assist in updraft rotation this
afternoon and evening. The orientation of the storms and updraft
collisions may limit the overall severe threat somewhat. However,
the environment will continue to support large hail and severe wind
gusts late this afternoon and into the evening.
..Bentley.. 07/02/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...MKX...DVN...ARX...DMX...
LAT...LON 42259340 42819185 43459058 42969035 42549024 42089066
41609195 41529277 41609338 41829358 42259340
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN
Read more
MD 1445 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 439... FOR EAST-CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA
Mesoscale Discussion 1445
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0341 PM CDT Thu Jul 02 2026
Areas affected...east-central South Dakota
Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 439...
Valid 022041Z - 022215Z
The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 439
continues.
SUMMARY...A cluster of supercells will continue slowly eastward this
afternoon and evening.
DISCUSSION...Very large hail (up to 3 inches) and brief tornadoes
have been reported with the supercell that began in Brule county and
has moved slowly northeastward. The tornado threat will likely
remain as this supercell moves along the stalled outflow boundary.
The cluster of supercells from the west is moving eastward quickly
and will likely overtake this supercell within the hour. Additional
convection to the south (with a recent measured 69 mph wind gust)
indicates the potential for additional development and some upscale
growth. If this occurs and the cluster accelerates east/southeast,
watch 439 may need to be expanded.
..Bentley.. 07/02/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...FSD...ABR...UNR...
LAT...LON 44200004 44359866 44499818 44539736 44269715 43999740
43749821 43589904 43669967 43960022 44200004
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN
Read more
MD 1444 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 438... FOR MIDDLE TENNESSEE INTO NORTHERN ALABAMA
Mesoscale Discussion 1444
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0338 PM CDT Thu Jul 02 2026
Areas affected...Middle Tennessee into northern Alabama
Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 438...
Valid 022038Z - 022245Z
The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 438
continues.
SUMMARY...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 438 continues until 8 PM CDT.
Storms in the watch area will be capable of damaging wind gusts of
55-70 MPH.
DISCUSSION...As expected given the lack of upper-level flow,
thunderstorms across Middle Tennessee and northern Alabama have been
largely disorganized. However, given steep lapse rates, modest
precipitable water content, and tall mixed-layer LCL heights near 2
km, wet microburst activity is possible with the strongest downdraft
cores. These microbursts could be capable of damaging winds of 55-70
MPH. Since there is little in the way of convective organization,
the expectation is that convective activity will diminish after
sunset with the reduction in surface heating.
..Halbert.. 07/02/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...MRX...LMK...OHX...BMX...HUN...PAH...MEG...
LAT...LON 36718890 36748797 36768688 36698641 36428619 35808599
35198578 34668561 34398552 34248570 34198624 34188675
34148717 34198762 34268801 34498828 35188851 35918868
36488888 36718890
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN
Read more
MD 1443 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR UPSTATE NEW YORK INTO VERMONT
Mesoscale Discussion 1443
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0318 PM CDT Thu Jul 02 2026
Areas affected...Upstate New York into Vermont
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 022018Z - 022215Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent
SUMMARY...Strong to isolated severe thunderstorms are expected to
move from Ontario into Upstate New York/Vermont. While these storms
could be capable of 55-60 MPH winds, weather watch issuance is not
anticipated at this time.
DISCUSSION...A cluster of thunderstorms in Ontario is expected to
move eastward into Upstate New York and portions of northern Vermont
this afternoon. MLCAPE > 2500 J/kg and 30-40 kts of deep layer shear
suggests continued thunderstorm longevity and intermittent
organization that could support strong to severe wind gusts of 55-60
MPH. However, the overall isolated nature of this convection means
watch issuance is not anticipated at this time.
..Halbert/Hart.. 07/02/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...BTV...ALY...BGM...BUF...
LAT...LON 43727662 44167685 44487679 44837663 45057635 45227601
45597504 45627385 45457307 45027274 44497280 43917340
43577448 43527560 43667635 43727662
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
Read more
MD 1442 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR EASTERN COLORADO AND WESTERN KANSAS.
Mesoscale Discussion 1442
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0311 PM CDT Thu Jul 02 2026
Areas affected...eastern Colorado and western Kansas.
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible
Valid 022011Z - 022215Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent
SUMMARY...Scattered severe wind gusts are possible this
afternoon/evening.
DISCUSSION...A supercell has developed on the Raton Mesa where SPC
HRRR-based mesoanalysis shows minimal inhibition. Additional storms
have started to develop farther northeast from this storm along the
dryline into an increasingly unstable airmass. It is unclear whether
these storms will continue to develop northeast along the boundary
or if they will cluster and move into western Kansas, but either
way, a region of greater severe wind threat may exits into western
Kansas this afternoon/evening where 2500-3500 J/kg MLCAPE exists
with mid-level flow of 25 to 30 knots, sufficient for some multicell
storms. If sufficient clustering occurs this evening, a severe
thunderstorm watch may need to be issued.
..Bentley/Hart.. 07/02/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...DDC...GLD...AMA...PUB...ABQ...
LAT...LON 37090324 39570173 40150068 39519967 38290009 36680212
36600309 37090324
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN
Read more
SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1124 AM CDT Thu Jul 02 2026
Valid 021630Z - 031200Z
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA...SOUTHWEST
MINNESOTA...AND NORTHWEST IOWA....
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE DAKOTAS
INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES...OVER THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS AND
TENNESSEE VALLEY...AND OVER WESTERN KANSAS...
...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe storms will be possible from the northern Plains
into the Midwest and Great Lakes regions today into tonight, as well
as across the southern Appalachians and Tennessee Valley this
afternoon and early evening.
...SD to WI...
Morning water vapor imagery shows several weak and/or convectively
induced shortwave troughs moving across the northern Plains into the
Upper Midwest. This area will have widespread marginal to moderate
afternoon CAPE and dewpoints in the 60s to lower 70s. This leads to
a forecast of a large area of potential thunderstorm development,
but with weak/nebulous forcing and general height-rises aloft. As
such, the overall confidence in this forecast is not very high.
Storms are likely to focus along a boundary currently evident from
southern SD into central IA. Convection currently developing in
northern IA near the boundary should continue to intensify through
the afternoon and track into southern WI/northern IL with a severe
wind/hail threat.
Other intense thunderstorm clusters are expected to develop along
the SD/NE portion of the boundary by mid/late afternoon, also with a
risk of large hail and damaging wind gusts.
...Western KS...
Full sunshine and dewpoints in the 60s will lead to a region of
strong instability over western KS this afternoon. Most CAM
solutions suggest at least isolated thunderstorms form along the
KS/CO border and spread slowly eastward during the evening. A
deeply mixed boundary layer and sufficient CAPE suggest a risk of
damaging wind gusts in the strongest cells.
...TN Valley/Southern Appalachians...
A widespread very moist and unstable air mass is present today
across this region, with full sunshine leading to steep low-level
lapse rates and MLCAPE values over 4000 J/kg. Weak forcing under an
upper ridge limits confidence in timing/location of storms.
However, widely scattered thunderstorm development should eventually
result in merging outflows and the risk of gusty/damaging winds this
afternoon and early evening across the region.
..Hart/Halbert.. 07/02/2026
Read more
SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0300 PM CDT Thu Jul 02 2026
Valid 022000Z - 031200Z
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF
EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA INTO FAR SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA AND EXTREME
NORTHWEST IOWA...
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF
THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS TO THE GREAT LAKES...WESTERN KANSAS...AND
PARTS OF THE TENNESSEE VALLEY...
...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe storms are still possible from the northern Plains
into the Midwest and Great Lakes regions today into tonight, as well
as across the southern Appalachians and Tennessee Valley this
afternoon and early evening.
...20Z Update...
Much of the previous forecast remains generally on track, especially
for portions of the central High Plains, the TN Valley, and northern
New England.
However, appreciable uncertainty still exists regarding the
potential for focused corridors of severe across much of the
northern Plains into the Great Lakes. Relatively robust supercell
evolution has occurred along mesoscale surface baroclinic
boundaries, amid generally weak upper-level support, to support
instances of 2-3 inch diameter hail over central/eastern SD, as well
as instances of brief and modest rotation with storms over
northeastern IA. Please see MCDs 1440-1441 for short-term details of
convective evolution. However, these storms are moving roughly
normal to boundary orientation, putting the duration of higher-end
severe into question. At least for portions of the Upper Midwest
though, there is a modest signal of an MCS traversing a baroclinic
boundary along the WI/IL border for multiple hours. A locally
greater concentration of damaging gusts could accompany this
activity through the afternoon, though confidence in this scenario
is not overly high either. Many of the ongoing storms (especially
over SD) are occurring over portions of the open warm sector
relatively early in the diurnal heating cycle, casting uncertainty
regarding the impacts the ongoing storms will have on later
afternoon initiation and evolution along other mesoscale boundaries.
As such, prudence was exercised in favor of making only minor
changes to the outlook to reflect the latest guidance consensus.
..Squitieri.. 07/02/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1124 AM CDT Thu Jul 02 2026/
...SD to WI...
Morning water vapor imagery shows several weak and/or convectively
induced shortwave troughs moving across the northern Plains into the
Upper Midwest. This area will have widespread marginal to moderate
afternoon CAPE and dewpoints in the 60s to lower 70s. This leads to
a forecast of a large area of potential thunderstorm development,
but with weak/nebulous forcing and general height-rises aloft. As
such, the overall confidence in this forecast is not very high.
Storms are likely to focus along a boundary currently evident from
southern SD into central IA. Convection currently developing in
northern IA near the boundary should continue to intensify through
the afternoon and track into southern WI/northern IL with a severe
wind/hail threat.
Other intense thunderstorm clusters are expected to develop along
the SD/NE portion of the boundary by mid/late afternoon, also with a
risk of large hail and damaging wind gusts.
...Western KS...
Full sunshine and dewpoints in the 60s will lead to a region of
strong instability over western KS this afternoon. Most CAM
solutions suggest at least isolated thunderstorms form along the
KS/CO border and spread slowly eastward during the evening. A
deeply mixed boundary layer and sufficient CAPE suggest a risk of
damaging wind gusts in the strongest cells.
...TN Valley/Southern Appalachians...
A widespread very moist and unstable air mass is present today
across this region, with full sunshine leading to steep low-level
lapse rates and MLCAPE values over 4000 J/kg. Weak forcing under an
upper ridge limits confidence in timing/location of storms.
However, widely scattered thunderstorm development should eventually
result in merging outflows and the risk of gusty/damaging winds this
afternoon and early evening across the region.
Read more
SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1217 PM CDT Thu Jul 02 2026
Valid 031200Z - 041200Z
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL
NEBRASKA INTO WESTERN IOWA...
...SUMMARY...
Scattered wind damage and large hail are expected from parts of
Nebraska into Iowa Friday. Isolated to scattered severe storms are
also possible extending eastward from the northern/central Plains
into the Midwest, Tennessee Valley, and Mid-Atlantic.
...Synopsis...
An upper high will remain over the Appalachians and Carolinas, with
a somewhat weaker ridge aloft extending westward into the southern
Rockies. Relatively cool midlevel temperatures will generally
stretch from the northern Plains and across much of the Great Lakes
an Northeast, as modest mid and high level westerlies persist. In
the low levels, substantial moisture and instability will persist
across those same areas, as south to southwest surface winds
maintain 70s F dewpoints around the northern periphery of a
southeast U.S. surface high. An east-west oriented boundary will
stretch from the northern Plains eastward across the Great Lakes
region, with various clusters of thunderstorms throughout the period
within this unstable zone.
...Northern/Central Plains...
Any outflows from overnight convection are likely to mix, with
strong instability developing. Cells will form over the northern
High Plains initially with localized hail and wind. Larger coverage
of storms will occur from southern SD into northern NE during the
mid/late afternoon, with general upscale growth into one or more
MCSs. However, supercells may occur initially with large hail and a
brief tornado. Supporting a severe MCS will be ample precipitable
water, strong instability, and an increasing southerly low-level jet
during the evening. Additional isolated hail or wind may occur near
the surface trough into western KS and toward the TX Panhandle where
temperatures will be hot.
...Much of the Midwest to the Lower Great Lakes and across NY, PA
and NJ...
The entire corridor stretching from northern IL/southern WI into NY
and NJ will destabilize with daytime heating and robust moisture.
Storms are most likely from WI/IL during the late afternoon, and
also near the Lower Great Lakes, affecting OH, PA, NY. Modest
westerlies aloft and the uncapped air mass across the area will
support a few longer-lived clusters of storms capable of damaging
wind gusts. Some of the activity may proceed into western New
England into early evening.
...TN Valley and northern GA...
Within the weak easterly flow regime aloft, just south of the upper
ridge, storms are expected to form during the afternoon with the
very moist and unstable air mass. Mid 70s F dewpoints will again
lead to strong instability, with multicell clusters moving
west/northwest by mid/early afternoon. Locally damaging wind gusts
are possible.
..Jewell.. 07/02/2026
Read more
SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0220 PM CDT Thu Jul 02 2026
Valid 041200Z - 051200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN
COLORADO INTO WESTERN KANSAS...AND FROM EASTERN OHIO/WEST VIRGINIA
EASTWARD ACROSS THE I-95 CORRIDOR...
...SUMMARY...
Scattered storms will be possible from the central Plains into the
Midwest and Mid-Atlantic this Fourth of July (Saturday). The
greatest concentration of strong to severe storms will be within
portions of the Mid-Atlantic, and over parts of the central Plains
late.
...Parts of the Mid Atlantic...
Stronger mid to high level winds exist over the Northeast, though 30
kt at 500 mb will extend as far south as Maryland. A surface trough
will deepen during the day near the I-90 corridor, where 70s F
dewpoints will contribute to moderate instability. Storms may
develop both within the instability plume from OH into PA, and
within the heated surface trough from VA into PA/NJ. Strong wind
gusts will be common, with some severe/damaging gusts likely late
afternoon through early evening during peak heating.
...Central High Plains...
Scattered strong to severe storms may develop near the Front Range
as surface winds back to easterly late in the day. This will bring
moisture westward toward the higher terrain, with most models
showing a few cells developing late afternoon with localized hail
and wind potential. Good direction shear and steep lapse rates aloft
will favor large hail. Storms may then persist into western NE and
KS, with potential areas of severe wind gusts.
..Jewell.. 07/02/2026
Read more
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1138 AM CDT Thu Jul 02 2026
Valid 021700Z - 031200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR WESTERN/SOUTHERN
COLORADO...EASTERN UTAH...AND NORTHERN NEW MEXICO...
...Morning Update...
The forecast remains on track. Across the Greater Four Corners
region, poor overnight humidity recoveries and residual gusty winds
further intensified the fire environment, maintaining active
behavior on several wildfires through the early morning hours (as
depicted by satellite imagery). Daytime high temperatures will be a
few degrees warmer than yesterday, with critically low RH of 3-12%
across the Elevated and Critical risk areas. Stronger southwest
winds up to 20 mph (gusts up to 30 mph) are expected over much of
the Southern Rockies (and adjacent Plains) into the West Slope.
Across the Eastern Seaboard, ERCs are approaching the 90-95th
percentile. The Piedmont and Mid-Atlantic will see RH values decline
to 20-25% this afternoon, allowing locally elevated fire concerns to
emerge where dry fuels exist. Winds will be the limiting factor,
with terrain-induced gusts up to 10 mph possible.
See the previous discussion for more information.
..Elizalde-Garcia.. 07/02/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1226 AM CDT Thu Jul 02 2026/
...Synopsis...
Upper-level troughing remains over the West with weak shortwave
troughs continuing to rotate through the flow. However, heights will
rise amid a warming trend across the West. A very dry airmass
remains in place across the greater Four Corners region.
...Greater Four Corners Region and southern Great Basin...
Southwest sustained winds of 12-20 mph gusting 20-30 mph amid
minimum RH of 3-12% are expected across the greater Four Corners
region. Continued poor RH recovery overnight will lead to extended
burn periods again, with most areas having 5-15 hours of at least
elevated fire weather conditions within the Elevated area. Portions
of the Critical area may have elevated conditions for nearly 20
hours, including in the vicinity of the Aspen Acres Fire. Large
swaths of the Colorado Rockies are near or setting new record high
ERC values, with ERCs exceeding the 90th percentile across the vast
majority of the Elevated area.
...Northern Great Basin...
Isolated dry thunderstorms are possible in portions of northeast
Nevada into southeast Idaho. However, given the low forecast MUCAPE
(<250 J/kg), rising heights, and limited mid-level moisture,
confidence is low that sufficient coverage of thunderstorms will
develop over the portions of eastern Nevada with more receptive
fuels (ERCs > 80th percentile).
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0242 PM CDT Thu Jul 02 2026
Valid 031200Z - 041200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR WESTERN/SOUTHERN
COLORADO...EASTERN UTAH...AND FAR NORTHERN NEW MEXICO...
...Afternoon Update...
Only minor adjustments were made to the spatial extent of the
Critical risk area based on updated guidance. Otherwise, the
forecast remains on track. Across the Eastern Seaboard, ERCs are
expected to approach the 95-99th percentile on Day 2/Friday. The
Piedmont and portions of the Atlantic Coastal Plain will see RH
values decline to 20-35%, promoting locally elevated fire concerns
to emerge where dry fuels exist. Winds will be the limiting factor,
with terrain-induced gusts up to 10 mph possible.
See the previous discussion for more information.
..Elizalde-Garcia.. 07/02/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1232 AM CDT Thu Jul 02 2026/
...Synopsis...
Upper-level troughing over the West will weaken as heights rise.
However, lee troughing will continue over the High Plains and a very
dry airmass remains entrenched over the greater Four Corners region.
...Greater Four Corners Region...
West-southwest sustained winds of 10-20 mph with gusts of 20-25 mph
amid minimum RH of 3-12% are expected across the greater Four
Corners region. While more locally critical rather than critical
conditions are expected, steep low-level lapse rates, deep boundary
layer mixing, thermal-induced surface pressure troughing, and enough
flow aloft led to the inclusion of the Critical delineation.
Additionally, this will likely be the end of several consecutive
days of dry/windy conditions across the region where significant
fire activity has transpired. Poor overnight RH recovery will
continue, with 5-15 hours of at least elevated fire weather
conditions expected across the region.
...Northern Great Basin...
Isolated dry thunderstorms are possible again across portions of
northeast Nevada, northern Utah, and southeast Idaho. Forecast
guidance indicates the best chances of thunderstorms are likely over
places with ERC values between the 50th and 75th percentiles and
have had rainfall at least once this week. While lightning ignitions
cannot be ruled out, an IsoDryT area is not warranted at this time.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0415 PM CDT Thu Jul 02 2026
Valid 041200Z - 101200Z
...Discussion...
An upper level trough and strong westerly flow aloft will traverse
the Inland Northwest on Day 3/Saturday, while a surface low in
southern Alberta will send a dry cold front through the region.
Tightening surface pressure gradients should support gusty downslope
winds and low RH across the Columbia Basin, promoting localized fire
concerns where ERCs are forecast to approach the 80th percentile.
Upper-level ridging will gradually build across Southwest on Day
3/Saturday. As high pressure organizes into the Four Corners beyond
Day 4/Sunday, southerly flow aloft will encourage mid-level
monsoonal moisture to advect northward. This pattern will support
daily chances of mixed wet/dry thunderstorms across portions of the
Southwest, Great Basin, and Southern Rockies. A dry sub-cloud layer
should initially inhibit greater rainfall production, increasing the
potential for lightning ignitions where very dry fuels exist. Dry
Thunderstorm probabilities were not included on Days
4-5/Sunday-Monday due to uncertainties in the overlap of stronger
instability and extent of mid-level moisture; however, trends will
be monitored for the introduction of highlights in future outlooks.
Eastern CONUS upper ridging will flatten on Day 3/Saturday as a
shortwave trough slowly traverses the Great Lakes region through Day
5/Monday. Daily chances for precipitation will exist across the
Eastern Seaboard through next week, though portions of the Piedmont
and Southeast will largely remain dry. Localized fire concerns may
emerge where occasionally gusty winds and low RH overlap dry fuels.
..Elizalde-Garcia.. 07/02/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
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