RSS Mesoscale Discussions from Storm Prediction Center
WW 413 SEVERE TSTM MN ND SD 291055Z - 291700Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 413
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
555 AM CDT Mon Jun 29 2026
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of
Northwest Minnesota
Southeast North Dakota
Central into Northeast South Dakota
* Effective this Monday morning from 555 AM until NOON CDT.
* Primary threats include...
Scattered damaging winds and isolated significant gusts to 100
mph likely
Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2
inches in diameter possible
SUMMARY...A cluster of severe thunderstorms will move from central
South Dakota into northeast South Dakota, southeast North Dakota,
and into parts of northwest Minnesota. Damaging winds and large hail
will be likely, along with peak gusts in the 80 to 100 mph range.
The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 65
statute miles east and west of a line from 30 miles west of
Chamberlain SD to 35 miles north of Detroit Lakes MN. For a complete
depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update
(WOUS64 KWNS WOU3).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.
&&
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 412...
AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 85 knots. A
few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 550. Mean storm motion vector
23040.
...Smith
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WW 0413 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 413
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SSE HON
TO 30 N 9V9 TO 40 ENE PIR TO 30 ESE MBG.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1376
..JEWELL..06/29/26
ATTN...WFO...FGF...ABR...BIS...FSD...
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 413
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
MNC005-011-027-051-087-107-111-155-167-291340-
MN
. MINNESOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BECKER BIG STONE CLAY
GRANT MAHNOMEN NORMAN
OTTER TAIL TRAVERSE WILKIN
NDC017-021-073-077-081-291340-
ND
. NORTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CASS DICKEY RANSOM
RICHLAND SARGENT
SDC005-013-025-029-037-045-049-051-059-069-089-091-109-115-
291340-
SD
Read more
WW 0412 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 412
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 S 9V9 TO
45 W 9V9 TO 5 WSW PIR TO 35 S MBG.
..JEWELL..06/29/26
ATTN...WFO...UNR...ABR...
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 412
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
SDC017-059-065-069-085-117-119-291140-
SD
. SOUTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BUFFALO HAND HUGHES
HYDE LYMAN STANLEY
SULLY
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
Read more
MD 1376 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 413... FOR EAST-CENTRAL INTO NORTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA
Mesoscale Discussion 1376
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0640 AM CDT Mon Jun 29 2026
Areas affected...east-central into northeast South dakota
Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 413...
Valid 291140Z - 291345Z
The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 413
continues.
SUMMARY...A corridor of extreme tornado-like wind damage may persist
for an hour or two into northeast South Dakota.
DISCUSSION...A storm complex continues to travel quickly
northeastward out of central SD. This complex has supercell
characteristics, but is extremely large. Measured winds up to 131
mph have occurred, with multiple 100+ mph gusts also measured.
Though presumably straight-line winds, these speeds are firmly
within the EF2 range.
Given the longevity of this storm complex, similar wind speeds, at
least 80 to 100 mph, appear likely to approach the Aberdeen SD area
later this morning.
..Jewell.. 06/29/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...ABR...
LAT...LON 44639974 45699878 45809828 45579793 45359796 44459905
44469935 44489959 44639974
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...110+ MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN
Read more
SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0234 AM CDT Mon Jun 29 2026
Valid 011200Z - 021200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN PARTS OF
THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST...AND PARTS OF THE
NORTHEAST...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe storms will again be possible from the
central Plains into the Upper Midwest as well the Northeast on
Wednesday. Severe wind gusts and large hail are the main concerns.
...Synopsis...
The upper-level pattern across the CONUS will not significantly
change from Tuesday into Wednesday. A broad trough in the West will
maintain modest to moderate mid-level flow across the Plains into
the Upper Midwest. Some stronger mid-level flow is possible in the
Upper Great Lakes vicinity due to the main synoptic trough displaced
to the north in Canada. Moderate northwesterly winds aloft will
persist in the Northeast as well. Strong to extreme buoyancy will
develop during the afternoon from the Upper Midwest into the
Northeast with a very moist airmass beneath the upper ridge.
...Central Plains into the Upper Midwest...
A stalled surface boundary will may eventually make modest northward
progress as a weak surface trough develops in the central/northern
Plains. Models suggest convection will be ongoing early in the
morning in the Nebraska/South Dakota vicinity. Given the strong
low-level jet expected, it is not clear if this convection will
weaken during the morning or continue eastward into an increasingly
unstable airmass. Depending on how that early activity evolves,
there is potential for another round of convection to develop along
the boundary in the Upper Mississippi Valley. This may be aided by a
subtle shortwave trough moving northeast. In either case, MCS
development is possible with time. Damaging winds and isolated large
hail are possible, though there may end up being a corridor of
greater wind damage potential should an MCS develop. Greater severe
probabilities may be needed as confidence increases.
...Northeast...
Forcing for ascent will be more nebulous on Wednesday. Even so, the
very unstable environment will promote a risk of strong/damaging
downburst winds as well as isolated large hail. Given the
uncertainty in storm coverage, only low severe probabilities have
been added.
..Wendt.. 06/29/2026
Read more
Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0359 AM CDT Mon Jun 29 2026
Valid 021200Z - 071200Z
...DISCUSSION...
The broad trough in the West and ridge in the East will persist
through the remainder of the week. A moist airmass across much of
the CONUS east of the Rockies will support repeated days of
convective activity. Large-scale forcing will remain weak, but
shortwave troughs emanating from the western trough will promote
development within the Plains and the Upper Midwest where a stalled
surface boundary will be positioned. Both Thursday and Friday show
potential for MCS development from Nebraska into the Dakotas. Friday
will likely have a more prominent shortwave trough as a lifting
mechanism. Where this potential severe weather will be focused is
not certain given the expected convection that will occur each day
prior. For Saturday, some models show the shortwave trough moving
into the Upper Midwest where another round of convection may occur.
Severe probabilities are certainly possible in the coming days as
confidence continues to increase.
Another area to watch this week will be the Northeast. Here,
stronger northwesterly flow at mid levels will continue into part of
the weekend. Depending on how the shortwave trough evolves in the
Upper Midwest, this feature may eventually move into the Northeast
and promote thunderstorm development late this weekend into next
week. Predictability remains too low for highlights, however.
Read more
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