RSS Mesoscale Discussions from Storm Prediction Center
No watches are valid as of Mon May 4 00:44:02 UTC 2026.
No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Mon May 4 00:44:02 UTC 2026.
SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0740 PM CDT Sun May 03 2026
Valid 040100Z - 041200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL MISSOURI INTO CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ILLINOIS...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe storms capable of hail and gusty winds are possible
this evening across northern/eastern Missouri into south-central
Illinois.
...Synopsis...
Current surface observations and mesoanalysis show modest air mass
modification into central Missouri, where dew points are in the mid
to upper 40s near the I-70 corridor. Visible satellite has shown
some cumulus development over the last hour. A weak cold front
continues to slowly sag southward. Guidance suggests that isolated
thunderstorm development will be possible near this boundary this
evening over the next couple of hours with the increasing low-level
jet. These are expected to be elevated, rooted largely in the
850-700 mb layer, where some marginal instability with cooling
temperatures aloft and steep lapse rates may support a few instances
of hail and strong to severe wind.
Low top convection within a plume of steep low to mid-level lapse
rates across South Dakota and Nebraska continues to track eastward,
with a history of producing gusts 50-60 mph. These have been
generally weakening and moving into drier air. Occasional stronger
gusts may continue given the steep lapse rate environment.
..Thornton.. 05/04/2026
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SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0408 PM CDT Sun May 03 2026
Valid 051200Z - 111200Z
An upper low will transition to an open wave as it traverses the
Southwest on Day 3/Tuesday. Concurrently, an upper trough will sag
into the Midwest and Great Lakes region before merging with southern
stream troughing over the Mid-South on Day 4/Wednesday. However,
guidance has started to differ on the evolution of the upper wave
over the Southwest, one solution depicting an upper low to break off
and reside over northern Mexico through Day 6/Friday. Despite these
differences, the overall pattern should continue to provide chances
for precipitation across the central Plains and portions of the
Eastern U.S. through mid-week, dampening broader fire weather
concerns. An upper ridge is expected to build across the Pacific
Northwest on Day 5/Wednesday, resulting in above normal temperatures
and dry conditions to prevail for much of the western CONUS through
the forecast period.
A deep upper-level trough centered over the Great Lakes and an
approaching shortwave across the Mid-South should enhance dry
southwesterly flow on Day 3/Tuesday for portions of the
Mid-Atlantic, promoting widespread breezy conditions. However, an
ongoing transition to green up and recent appreciable rainfall
hinders a broader fire concern.
A cold front is expected to stall across the TX Panhandle Day
3/Tuesday, pushing dry and breezy conditions farther south into
Central/West Texas as southwesterly flow aloft amplifies. On Day
4/Wednesday, the upper trough will migrate atop the southern Plains
and West TX as an area of surface convergence develops east of the
Front Range. This feature is expected to send a secondary cold front
through the TX Panhandle on Day 4/Wednesday, while downslope
westerly winds and a dry airmass persists over West TX. Recent
plentiful rainfall and marginal fuels precludes the introduction of
probabilities on both days.
..Elizalde-Garcia.. 05/03/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
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