RSS Mesoscale Discussions from Storm Prediction Center
No watches are valid as of Sat Feb 14 12:01:02 UTC 2026.
No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Sat Feb 14 12:01:02 UTC 2026.
SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0224 AM CST Sat Feb 14 2026
Valid 161200Z - 171200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PARTS OF
SOUTHERN CA COASTAL AREAS...
...SUMMARY...
Strong thunderstorms may impact southern California coastal areas
south of Vandenberg AFB into the Los Angeles Basin Monday,
accompanied by at least some risk for damaging wind gusts and
perhaps a couple of tornadoes.
...Discussion...
To the northeast of a blocking mid-level ridge centered over the
southern mid-latitude Pacific (between 150-160W longitude), models
indicate that a vigorous short wave perturbation will undergo
further amplification while digging offshore of the British Columbia
and Pacific Northwest coast during this period. It appears that
this will be accompanied by lower/mid-tropospheric cyclogenesis, and
force an initially significant downstream trough inland across
California and much of the Great Basin, into the northern Rockies
Monday night. As this occurs, deep surface troughing is also
forecast to develop inland, centered near the northern Rockies
through the central and southern Great Plains by 12Z Tuesday.
Guidance indicates that the lead perturbation will be accompanied by
an intense mid/upper jet (including a 100-110+ kt maximum around 500
mb) nosing inland across southern California through the Four
Corners. Forcing associated with this feature may be supporting
modest cyclogenesis offshore of the California coast by the
beginning of the period. The low may deepen a bit further while
occluding and migrating inland south of the San Francisco Bay
vicinity during the day Monday.
...Southern California coast...
It appears that a corridor of low-level moistening, along and ahead
of the front trailing the occluding surface low, will gradually
contribute to sufficient destabilization to support deepening
convective development while spreading inland across coastal areas
south of Vandenberg AFB through the Los Angeles Basin, perhaps
beginning as early as late Monday morning. Aided by mid/upper
forcing for ascent and strong mid-level cooling, NAM forecast
soundings suggest thermodynamic profiles may become supportive of
thunderstorm development, in the presence of strong deep-layer
shear. Wind profiles may include 40-50 kt southerly flow around the
850 mb level, with sizable low-level hodographs developing, aided by
orography, south of the western Transverse Ranges into the Los
Angeles Basin, potentially contributing to an environment conducive
to supercells capable of producing tornadoes, in addition to
potentially damaging wind gusts.
..Kerr.. 02/14/2026
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Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook RESENT 1
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0400 AM CST Sat Feb 14 2026
Valid 171200Z - 221200Z
...DISCUSSION...
Medium-range model output indicates generally low predictability
concerning the evolution of the blocking pattern over the
mid-latitude central into eastern Pacific, and downstream
developments inland and across North America, through this period.
Most certain, at this time, it appears that a fairly significant
perturbation emerging from Intermountain West on Tuesday will be
accompanied by deep surface troughing overspreading much of the
mid/lower Missouri Valley through the Upper Midwest and Ohio Valley,
before weakening across the Great Lakes on Wednesday. This will be
accompanied by strengthening deep-layer wind fields and shear,
conditionally supportive of organized convective development given
sufficient destabilization. However, there has been little change
from prior model runs, which have indicated that, despite an
initially seasonably warm environment across much of the Great
Plains and Mississippi Valley, the lack of appreciable Gulf moisture
return will inhibit convective potential through at least the middle
of next week.
Thereafter, in the mean, a broadly cyclonic to anticyclonic
southwesterly regime may characterize the flow into next weekend
across the southern Rockies and Great Plains through the Mid
Atlantic, to the west-northwest through north of a fairly prominent
subtropical high shifting from the Gulf Basin into Bahamas/Caribbean
vicinity. It is possible that a short wave embedded within this
regime may support significant lee cyclogenesis, as the Gulf
boundary layer becomes supportive of a more substantive moist return
flow. This, in turn, could become supportive of an increase in
potential for severe thunderstorm development, but a clear and
consistent signal has yet to emerge in the various medium range
guidance.
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