RSS Mesoscale Discussions from Storm Prediction Center
No watches are valid as of Wed Feb 11 22:20:01 UTC 2026.
No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Wed Feb 11 22:20:01 UTC 2026.
SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0146 PM CST Wed Feb 11 2026
Valid 112000Z - 121200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected.
...20Z Update...
No changes to the ongoing forecast.
..Wendt.. 02/11/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0941 AM CST Wed Feb 11 2026/
...SYNOPSIS...
A deepening upper trough over the northeast states will help a cold
front sag southward across GA/SC this afternoon. Showers and
isolated thunderstorms are expected along the front, but no severe
storms are anticipated. Other scattered showers and thunderstorms
will be possible today and tonight from central CA into much of the
Great Basin.
Read more
SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0129 PM CST Wed Feb 11 2026
Valid 131200Z - 141200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF WEST TEXAS...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms could produce small to
marginally severe hail Friday evening into the overnight hours
across portions of western Texas.
...Synopsis...
Positively tilted upper troughing is expected to extend from the
western Great Basin southwestward into the east-central Pacific
Ocean early Friday morning. Two shortwave troughs are forecast to be
embedded within this larger troughing. The southernmost shortwave
trough expected to progress quickly eastward through the base of the
parent troughing before then pivoting more northeastward at it moves
into the eastern periphery of the troughing over northern Mexico.
The northernmost shortwave trough will be less progressive at it
moves across southern CA and the Lower CO Valley. Evolution of the
system will likely result in a relatively consolidated
southern-stream trough extending from the central High Plains
southwestward through northern Mexico by early Saturday.
...West TX...
Downstream mass response will result in considerable airmass
modification across the southern Plains ahead of this system, with
upper 50s dewpoints likely reaching through much of west TX by
Friday evening. Afternoon temperatures will likely reach the low
70s, which will combine with the increasing moisture and cooling
mid-level temperatures to support modest buoyancy (i.e. 500 to 1000
J/kg of MLCAPE). The stronger forcing for ascent associated with the
approaching wave will likely lag peak heating slightly, but a few
surface-based storms are still possible amid weak capping and
low-level convergence. Supercell wind profiles, characterized by
modest low-level southeasterlies and moderate/strong southwesterlies
aloft, suggest that any storms that do develop could organize and
become severe. Large hail would be the primary hazard.
Thunderstorm coverage will likely increase as stronger ascent
associated attendant to the approaching wave and a strengthening
low-level jet arrives during the evening. Given anticipated
nocturnal stabilization, much of this activity will likely be
elevated, but strong deep-layer shear could still support updrafts
capable of isolated hail.
...Northwest TX into OK...
Strengthening low-level southerly flow and moistening low levels
ahead of the approaching wave will contribute to increasing showers
and thunderstorms from northwest TX into much of OK Friday evening
and overnight. Poor mid-level lapse rates will result in weak
buoyancy, but moderate vertical shear could still contribute to a
few stronger updrafts capable of small hail. Severe coverage in this
area is currently expected to be less than 5%.
..Mosier.. 02/11/2026
Read more
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1230 PM CST Wed Feb 11 2026
Valid 121200Z - 131200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
...19z Update...
As mentioned in the previous discussion, recent guidance has trended
towards higher RH values of 20-25 percent across eastern New Mexico
and the Texas Panhandle Thursday afternoon. As such, fire weather
highlights were withheld. However, westerly surface winds of 15-20
mph atop dry fuels could support locally elevated fire weather
conditions. Elsewhere, fire weather concerns are minimal.
..Elizalde-Garcia/Lyons.. 02/11/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1154 PM CST Tue Feb 10 2026/
...Synopsis...
An upper ridge will persist across the Plains States while a
mid-level trough ejects into the Atlantic, and another upper trough
traverses the Desert Southwest tomorrow (Thursday). Similar to Day
1, surface high pressure and associated cooler conditions should
prevail from the Mississippi River to the East Coast, while moist
southerly flow from the Gulf continues over the Plains. As such,
another day of relatively quiescent fire weather conditions is in
store for the CONUS.
Some consideration was given to the addition of Elevated highlights
along the northeast New Mexico/northern Texas Panhandle border given
relatively dry downslope flow expected tomorrow afternoon. However,
RH has trended higher in some of the more recent guidance,
precluding fire weather highlights at this time.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0351 PM CST Wed Feb 11 2026
Valid 131200Z - 191200Z
Very active upper and mid-level flow will persist across CONUS
through the extended forecast period. An upper trough and associated
surface low will move from the southern High Plains early Day
4/Saturday eastward across the Deep South/Southeast states through
Day 5/Sunday. Another upper-level trough enters the West on Day
6/Monday, progressing east over the Central and Southern High
Plains. Elevated to locally Critical fire weather is expected this
weekend and possibly early next week, given the strong mid-level
flow and increasing western US troughing.
...Texas Big Bend and Rio Grande Valley: Day 4/Saturday...
Dry and breezy conditions are expected to develop Day 4/Saturday
afternoon/evening as the mid/upper-level trough impinges on the area
and an associated surface low strengthens over the Southern Plains.
Uncertainties remain regarding precipitation placement on Day
1/Wednesday and also Day 4/Saturday. Ensemble guidance continues to
suggest a relative minimum in precipitation across portions of South
Texas into the Rio Grande Valley. The aforementioned area could see
RH values between 15-25 percent and west-northwesterly surface winds
of 15-25 mph. A 40% probability of Critical fire weather conditions
will be maintained where the dry and breezy conditions will likely
overlap dry fuels.
...Southern and Central High Plains: Day 5/Sunday - Day 6/Monday...
Fire weather conditions may increase across portions of the Southern
and Central High Plains on Day 5/Sunday and Day 6/Monday as a
mid-level trough approaches from the west and a surface lee cyclone
strengthens. Increasing southerly flow and low relative humidity
could support increasing fire weather potential given dry fuels.
There is some uncertainty given the potential for precipitation this
weekend, precluding the introduction of probabilities currently.
Later in the week (Day 7/Tuesday - Day 8/Wednesday) the secondary
mid-level trough will move from the west across the Rockies into the
Central and Southern High Plains region. Varying model trends and
significant timing differences lend to lower predictability
regarding the evolution of this system. However, the potential
exists for a strong lee-cyclone and downslope flow supporting
Critical fire weather conditions later in the week. Nonetheless,
this is conditional upon fuel moisture given the possibility of
rainfall earlier in the forecast period.
..Elizalde-Garcia/Lyons.. 02/11/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
|
