RSS Mesoscale Discussions from Storm Prediction Center
No watches are valid as of Wed Jan 14 19:54:02 UTC 2026.
No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Wed Jan 14 19:54:02 UTC 2026.
SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1026 AM CST Wed Jan 14 2026
Valid 141630Z - 151200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated thunderstorms are possible across south Florida and the
Keys today.
...Synopsis and Discussion...
Deep upper troughing extends over much central and eastern CONUS.
This troughing features two phased shortwave troughs, one moving
southeastward through the Upper Midwest and the other moving through
OK and AR. Both of these shortwaves are expected to continue
southeastward/eastward throughout the period as the parent upper
troughing also shifts gradually eastward. Upper ridging will persist
across the western CONUS, resulting in an amplified ridge/trough
pattern over the CONUS by early tomorrow.
Stable conditions are anticipated across the majority of the CONUS,
as the progression of the aforementioned shortwaves leads to a
reinforcing surge of dry, continental air. The only exception is
across south FL, where modest moisture (i.e. dewpoints in the upper
60s/low 70s) remain in place along the southeast coast. A few
thunderstorms are possible in this vicinity today, fostered by
limited buoyancy amid weak low-level convergence close to a weak
surface low. Additionally, low-level moisture and convergence are
forecast to increase as the southernmost shortwave trough mentioned
earlier progresses across the Gulf. Resulting increase in lift and
buoyancy could result in a few isolated thunderstorms along the
southwest FL Coast early tomorrow morning.
..Mosier/Squitieri.. 01/14/2026
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SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0145 PM CST Wed Jan 14 2026
Valid 142000Z - 151200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated thunderstorms are possible across the southwestern Florida
coast late in the period.
...20z Update...
Only minor adjustments were made to remove thunder from the
southeastern Florida coast to account for recent trends. See
previous discussion below for more information.
..Thornton.. 01/14/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1026 AM CST Wed Jan 14 2026/
...Synopsis and Discussion...
Deep upper troughing extends over much central and eastern CONUS.
This troughing features two phased shortwave troughs, one moving
southeastward through the Upper Midwest and the other moving through
OK and AR. Both of these shortwaves are expected to continue
southeastward/eastward throughout the period as the parent upper
troughing also shifts gradually eastward. Upper ridging will persist
across the western CONUS, resulting in an amplified ridge/trough
pattern over the CONUS by early tomorrow.
Stable conditions are anticipated across the majority of the CONUS,
as the progression of the aforementioned shortwaves leads to a
reinforcing surge of dry, continental air. The only exception is
across south FL, where modest moisture (i.e. dewpoints in the upper
60s/low 70s) remain in place along the southeast coast. A few
thunderstorms are possible in this vicinity today, fostered by
limited buoyancy amid weak low-level convergence close to a weak
surface low. Additionally, low-level moisture and convergence are
forecast to increase as the southernmost shortwave trough mentioned
earlier progresses across the Gulf. Resulting increase in lift and
buoyancy could result in a few isolated thunderstorms along the
southwest FL Coast early tomorrow morning.
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SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1113 AM CST Wed Jan 14 2026
Valid 151200Z - 161200Z
...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are not forecast on Thursday.
...Far Southern Florida and the Keys...
Within the base of a highly amplified trough over the eastern CONUS,
an embedded shortwave trough will advance eastward across the
central Gulf Coast and northern FL Peninsula early in the period.
The tail end of a related cold front will move southeastward across
southern FL and the Keys during the morning and afternoon hours --
where scattered showers/shallow convection is expected. However,
poor lapse rates/limited buoyancy along/ahead of the front should
generally limit thunderstorm potential.
..Weinman.. 01/14/2026
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SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0110 PM CST Wed Jan 14 2026
Valid 161200Z - 171200Z
...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
No thunderstorms are anticipated across the US on Friday.
...Discussion...
An expansive midlevel trough will encompass the eastern two-thirds
of the CONUS, while an amplified upper ridge persists over the West.
This pattern will result in cool/dry/stable conditions, and
therefore, no thunderstorms are expected.
..Weinman.. 01/14/2026
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SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1239 PM CST Wed Jan 14 2026
Valid 151200Z - 161200Z
Minor changes were made to the ongoing forecast given the latest
model guidance and fuel information. The forecast reasoning
otherwise remains valid. See the previous discussion for additional
information.
..Wendt.. 01/14/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0210 AM CST Wed Jan 14 2026/
...Synopsis...
As the initial upper trough over the East moves offshore, flow aloft
will turn more northwesterly ahead of a second potent upper trough
moving south out of Canada. A strong jet streak and reinforcing cold
front will approach from the north bolstering strong surface winds.
With dry conditions already in place, the strong winds will likely
support increasing fire-weather potential Thursday.
...Central and southern High Plains...
Ahead of the second shortwave, lee troughing will promote stronger
westerly downslope surface flow over parts of the central High
Plains Thursday. With a dry air mass in place behind the prior cold
front, bolstered by downsloping, afternoon RH values of 15-20% are
expected. Surface winds of 20-30 mph overlapped with the low
humidity will likely favor sustained elevated fire-weather
conditions for several hours given very dry fine fuels over parts of
Northeast CO, western NE and northwestern KS.
A couple of hours of near-critical fire-weather concerns are also
possible across the region Thursday afternoon. While the strongest
gusts (30-40 mph) will likely not overlap with the lowest humidity,
and some light precipitation is also expected D1/Wednesday
potentially briefly limiting the driest fuels. Still with strong
gusts in proximity to RH in the 20-30% range and fuels abnormally
dry, brief critical fire-weather conditions are possible.
Farther south, a similar, albeit slightly weaker, northwesterly flow
regime is expected over parts of the TX Panhandle and eastern NM.
Lee troughing will promote afternoon winds of 15-20 mph amid RH
below 20%. With dry fuels in place, several hours of enhanced
fire-weather conditions appear probable over parts of the southern
Plains Thursday afternoon.
...Southeast...
Very dry surface conditions are expected over the Southeast in the
wake of the strong frontal passage. While afternoon RH values will
likely be below 25%, much cooler surface temperatures and light
precipitation are also expected. This should mitigate fire-weather
concerns to some degree, though localized elevated conditions are
possible given the dry state of areas fuels and the overlap with
breezy offshore winds.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
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