RSS Mesoscale Discussions from Storm Prediction Center
No watches are valid as of Sun Feb 22 23:45:02 UTC 2026.
MD 0114 CONCERNING BLIZZARD FOR PORTIONS OF EXTREME EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA...MUCH OF NEW JERSEY...DELAWARE...EASTERN MARYLAND...AND FAR EASTERN VIRGINIA
Mesoscale Discussion 0114
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0358 PM CST Sun Feb 22 2026
Areas affected...portions of extreme eastern Pennsylvania...much of
New Jersey...Delaware...eastern Maryland...and far eastern Virginia
Concerning...Blizzard
Valid 222158Z - 230200Z
SUMMARY...Moderate to heavy snow should continue into the evening.
1+ inch/hour rates remain possible in spots. Blizzard conditions may
begin within the next few hours.
DISCUSSION...21Z mesoanalysis indicates that the surface low,
located east of the Delaware coastline, has strengthened to 998 mb,
with surface observations along the coast showing northeasterly
surface gusts approaching 20 kts in spots. 700 mb WAA and
frontogenesis continues to intensify along the DE/NJ coastline, and
should strengthen further with surface low intensification. 1+
inch/hr snowfall rates are likely underway, and should only become
more common with time. Furthermore, surface low intensification will
result in increased gradient flow along the Mid Atlantic coastline,
where blizzard conditions will be possible. The current thinking is
that blizzard conditions will most likely develop in the next few
hours.
..Squitieri.. 02/22/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...OKX...PHI...AKQ...CTP...LWX...
LAT...LON 37767705 38847675 39947600 40767509 40817445 40667412
40307388 39797402 39377445 39007480 38357504 37597553
37197577 37097599 37247648 37767705
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SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0150 PM CST Sun Feb 22 2026
Valid 222000Z - 231200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected today or tonight.
...Synopsis...
No significant changes have been made to the ongoing forecast.
..Hart.. 02/22/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1010 AM CST Sun Feb 22 2026/
...Synopsis...
Isolated thunderstorms are expected along the Mid-Atlantic and New
England coast this afternoon and tonight as offshore bomb
cyclogenesis occurs. Some of this lightning activity will occur
with heavy snow.
Elsewhere, a few afternoon thunderstorms may accompany a cold front
as it sags southward across the central FL peninsula. Also,
isolated thunderstorms may move ashore over western WA beneath very
cold temperatures aloft. In all of these places, weak instability
will preclude the risk of severe thunderstorms.
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SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0142 PM CST Sun Feb 22 2026
Valid 231200Z - 241200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA...
...Afternoon Update...
In the wake of the cold front moving south across the FL peninsula,
strong northerly winds and very dry surface conditions are expected
across parts of central and southern FL continuing from overnight
Sunday into Monday. Gusty north winds of 15-20 mph amid RH values
below 25% should support widespread elevated and critical
fire-weather concerns, especially across southern FL where fuels
remain the driest.
Northern portions of the critical area have been trimmed where prior
rainfall over the last 7 days exceeds 1 inch. Here fuels have likely
been tempered though short hour fuels could still support some
elevated fire-weather concerns.
Dry and breezy offshore winds will continue over much of the Gulf
Coast Monday. While weaker than the proceeding days, gusts of 10-15
mph with RH below 30% could allow for some locally elevated concerns
over southern LA/MS Monday.
Otherwise, only minor adjustments were made to the Elevated Area
across the southern High Plains for the latest forecast and fuels
guidance. See the previous discussion.
..Lyons.. 02/22/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0116 AM CST Sun Feb 22 2026/
...Synopsis...
Critical fire-weather conditions are forecast for much of the
Florida peninsula on Monday owing to a dry and breezy post-frontal
airmass overlapping drought-stricken fuels. Further west, dry and
breezy southerly flow in far eastern New Mexico into the
Texas/Oklahoma panhandles will support Elevated fire-weather
conditions.
...Florida Peninsula/Southern Georgia...
Relative humidity as low as 20%-25% (with poor overnight RH
recovery) and winds of 15-20 MPH out of the northwest will overlap
with drought-stricken fuels across much of the Florida peninsula on
Monday. This will result in widespread Critical fire-weather
conditions, particularly in central/southern Florida.
...Eastern New Mexico/Texas/Oklahoma Panhandles...
Dry and breezy southerly/southwesterly flow will develop across much
of eastern New Mexico into the TX/OK Panhandles on Monday afternoon.
Relative humidity as low as 10-15% and winds of 15-20 MPH are
forecast to overlap with previously cured fuels, supporting at least
Elevated fire-weather concerns.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
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SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0400 PM CST Sun Feb 22 2026
Valid 241200Z - 021200Z
Mid-level flow will remain amplified over the CONUS through the
extended forecast period. The predominant pattern will feature
troughing over the eastern US while strong mid-level flow continues
across the central US. Amplified ridging over the West will support
strong downslope flow and lee troughing over the southern and
central Plains. This will support continued Elevated to Critical
fire-weather conditions through this week and into next weekend.
...Central and Southern Plains States...
Strong northwest flow will develop over the Plains D3/Tuesday and
persist through much of next week ahead of a building ridge over the
West while broad troughing continues over the eastern US. Fire
weather conditions are forecast to become more widespread across the
southern Plains as a lee surface cyclone and associated pressure
gradient strengthens. West/northwesterly downslope winds of 15-25
mph are likely D3/Tuesday across eastern NM and the western TX
Panhandle amid RH minimums of 15-20%. With area fuels exceptionally
dry, widespread Elevated to critical fire-weather conditions are
probable.
Farther east into OK, TX and parts of KS/MO, surface winds will
remain southwesterly within a dry return flow regime east of the lee
low. While not as strong as farther west, gusts of 20-25 mph with
afternoon RH values below 30% will still support the potential for
elevated to locally critical fire-weather concerns amid
exceptionally dry fuels.
Broad fire-weather potential will continue over the southern and
possibly the central portions of the High Plains into
central/southern TX D4/Wednesday as the low moves eastward and
northwesterly downslope flow continues. Strong flow aloft will aid
in a broad area of 10-20 mph surface winds and higher gusts. RH
below 20% within areas of dry fuels appears likely to support at
least elevated and locally critical fire-weather concerns. This is
most likely over portions of the southern High Plains in NM and TX
where the best ensemble support currently exists. However, given the
strength of the flow aloft, some fire-weather potential is also
possible from WY and eastern CO into parts of KS/NE where fuels
remain dry.
Ensemble model spread begins to increase Day 5/Thursday and into
next weekend regarding the overlap of dry and windy conditions in
the wake of a cold front over the central US. Nonetheless, the
mid/upper-level pattern continues to favor enhanced mid-level flow
and dry conditions over much of the central US. This flow pattern
coupled with ongoing drought suggests some fire weather concerns
will remain possible across portions of the Plains late this week
and into next weekend despite limited details.
..Lyons.. 02/22/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
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