RSS Mesoscale Discussions from Storm Prediction Center
No watches are valid as of Mon Feb 23 07:04:02 UTC 2026.
MD 0116 CONCERNING BLIZZARD FOR NEW YORK CITY VICINITY INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
Mesoscale Discussion 0116
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1145 PM CST Sun Feb 22 2026
Areas affected...New York City Vicinity into southern New England
Concerning...Blizzard
Valid 230545Z - 231045Z
SUMMARY...Moderate to heavy snowfall will continue from the NYC
Metro vicinity into southern New England. Snowfall rates of 1-2
inches per hour are likely with localized 2+ inches per hour
possible. Greater rates will spread north with time. Blizzard
conditions will also become more prevalent, particularly near the
coast.
DISCUSSION...Over the past 5 hours, the surface cyclone off the
Mid-Atlantic coast has deepened approximately 9 mb per objective
analysis. Bands of moderate to heavy snow continue to pivot into the
NYC metro vicinity as well as southern New England. Moderate snow
observations are beginning to occur into Massachusetts. As the upper
trough continues to intensify and become more negatively tilted, the
surface cyclone will deepen further into Monday morning. A long
duration of at least moderate snowfall can be expected. Closer to
4-7 AM EST, a zone of very favorable ascent is expected to set up
over southern New England. Snowfall rates of 1-2 inches per hour are
likely along with the potential for localized 2+ inches per hour.
Greater snowfall rates will also gradually shift northward as the
system slowly lifts northeastward.
Beyond significant snowfall rates, surface winds have already begun
to increase from the Mid-Atlantic into southern New England. Current
observations show winds gusting into the mid 30s to low 40s kts in
Long Island. This trend should continue over the next several hours.
Blizzard conditions will remain more likely near the coast, but
inland areas will become increasingly impacted by strong winds and
reduced visibility later this morning.
..Wendt.. 02/23/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...BOX...OKX...ALY...PHI...
LAT...LON 40447378 40557434 40767470 41187464 41617431 41777408
42057317 42257271 42327212 42307140 41997061 41757033
41347048 40447378
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SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1118 PM CST Sun Feb 22 2026
Valid 231200Z - 241200Z
...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are not expected.
...Discussion...
Large-scale pattern does not appear particularly favorable for deep
convection capable of generating lightning during the day1 period.
While very weak buoyancy may exist near the southern New England
coast, as a deep cyclone ejects northeast toward Nova Scotia, the
prospect for lightning appears too low to warrant 10 percent thunder
today.
Another region where very weak elevated instability is expected to
support shallow convection is across northwest WA early in the
period. Short-wave ridging will quickly spread across this region
and thunderstorms are not anticipated.
..Darrow/Wendt.. 02/23/2026
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SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1221 AM CST Mon Feb 23 2026
Valid 241200Z - 251200Z
...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are not expected across the US on Tuesday.
... Discussion ...
Fast, broad northwest flow will be in place across much of the US
upper-levels on Tuesday. Embedded within this flow, a strong
shortwave trough will move from the Northern Plains into the Great
Lakes. At the surface, a low will skirt the central US-Canada
border, ending up north of the Great Lakes. Despite impressive
kinematics associated with this trough/cyclone, limited moisture and
instability should preclude thunderstorm development.
A secondary low will develop southward from eastern Colorado into
Northwest Texas, within a broad lee trough stretching from north of
Montana southward into central Texas. This low will begin drawing
Gulf moisture northward into the central US. However, the lack of
focused surface convergence/large-scale ascent should preclude
precipitation/thunderstorms from developing on Tuesday.
Across the West, a strong atmospheric river will take aim across
portions of the Pacific Northwest into northern California as an
extremely positively tilted trough moves into the Pacific Northwest.
Forecast soundings across the area denote nearly saturated, moist
adiabatic temperature/dewpoint profiles, which should inhibit
sufficient instability for thunderstorm development.
..Marsh.. 02/23/2026
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SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0101 AM CST Mon Feb 23 2026
Valid 231200Z - 241200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTH FLORIDA...
...Synopsis...
...Florida...
A dry airmass will move down the peninsula today in the wake of a
cold front. Recent precipitation has mitigated some fuel
receptiveness, particularly in North/Central Florida. However, South
Florida has remained rather dry and fuels will be receptive to
ignitions/spread. Winds will generally be stronger in the morning,
before slowly weakening into the afternoon/evening. During the
afternoon, winds of 10-15 mph can be expected. Given persistent
surface winds down the peninsula, RH may be near Elevated criteria
even early this morning. RH values by afternoon will be 25-35% in
the north with around 20% in the south. Critical fire weather is
expected in South Florida with elevated to locally critical
elsewhere.
...Southern High Plains...
Winds of 15-20 mph and RH of 10-20% are possible during the
afternoon. Lack of recent rainfall has continued to allow fuels to
dry. Elevated fire weather can be expected.
...Central Gulf Coast...
Dry offshore flow will continue today. Despite RH of 20-25% in some
areas, winds will generally be too light to promote more than
locally elevated concerns.
...Southeast Wyoming...
It is possible that locally elevated conditions will occur today as
winds increase due to a modest lee trough and increasing mid-level
winds. Mid/upper clouds will potentially keep temperatures cool and
RH higher. Fuel receptiveness is also uncertain given recent
precipitation.
..Wendt.. 02/23/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
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