RSS Mesoscale Discussions from Storm Prediction Center
No watches are valid as of Thu Mar 5 15:46:02 UTC 2026.
No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Thu Mar 5 15:46:02 UTC 2026.
SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0700 AM CST Thu Mar 05 2026
Valid 051300Z - 061200Z
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE EASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE INTO WESTERN OKLAHOMA...
...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected late this afternoon into
tonight from northwest Texas and the Texas Panhandle into western
Oklahoma and southern/central Kansas. Large to very large hail, a
few tornadoes, and severe/damaging winds will all be possible within
this corridor.
...Southern/Central Plains...
An upper trough will amplify over the western U.S. today as a broad
zone of modestly enhanced mid-level southwesterly flow persists over
the southern/central Plains. At the surface, lee cyclogenesis is
forecast to occur across eastern CO through this evening, which will
promote continued northward transport of low-level moisture across
TX into OK/KS. A surface dryline will also extend southward from the
low over the southern High Plains. Daytime heating of this moist
airmass and the presence of steep mid-level lapse rates will support
the development of at least 1000-1500 J/kg of MLCAPE by late
afternoon along/east of the dryline. Most guidance continues to
suggest that convective temperatures will be reached by 21-23Z
across the southern High Plains.
While large-scale ascent will remain fairly nebulous, current
expectations are for increasing low-level convergence along the
dryline and a strengthening southerly low-level jet to encourage
convective initiation across the eastern TX Panhandle and vicinity.
Forecast deep-layer shear around 40 kt will easily support
supercells with an associated threat for large to very large hail
initially (potentially up to 2-3 inches in diameter). Increasing
low-level shear through the evening will also foster enlarged
low-level hodographs and the potential for a few tornadoes with this
activity. With time this evening, convection is forecast to grow
upscale into a small but potentially intense cluster as it moves
northeastward into parts of western/northern OK and southern/central
KS.
Isolated severe hail may occur tonight with elevated convection
farther north in a low-level warm advection regime across eastern
NE/ northwest MO into IA. Farther south, isolated supercells may
also occur along the length of the dryline across west TX late this
afternoon/evening, with associated threat for occasional large hail
and severe gusts. However, confidence in any more than isolated
coverage remains low due to weak large-scale forcing.
...Ohio Valley into the central Appalachians...
A mid-level shortwave trough will move quickly eastward today across
the OH Valley. Modest low-level moisture will remain in place
along/south of a front, with generally weak instability forecast
across the warm sector. Even so, sufficiently strong low to
mid-level winds associated with this shortwave trough may promote
occasional damaging winds with loosely organized clusters that can
develop and spread eastward through the afternoon.
...Florida Peninsula...
Beneath an upper high and within an easterly low-level flow regime,
strong heating will occur today across the FL Peninsula, with
dewpoints dropping into the mid 60s F. Despite the upper high,
mid-level temperatures will remain relatively cool. Scattered
convection appear probable along the western FL Peninsula during the
afternoon where low-level convergence will be maximized. Locally
strong wind gusts will be possible, though organized severe
thunderstorms are not forecast owing to weak deep-layer shear.
..Gleason/Bentley.. 03/05/2026
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SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0944 AM CST Thu Mar 05 2026
Valid 051700Z - 061200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR EASTERN NEW MEXICO...SOUTHEAST
COLORADO...THE FAR WESTERN TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES...AND
EXTREME SOUTHWEST KANSAS...
The latest surface observations across the southern Plains/Southwest
indicate some morning fog east of the dryline, but evidence of dryer
air is moving into the higher terrain of southern New Mexico.
Additionally, satellite imagery indicates a slightly more broad area
devoid of passing cloud cover versus what earlier forecast guidance
indicated. Meanwhile, fuel conditions thought to be more marginal
near the western periphery of the Elevated area in New Mexico have
also supported large fire growth over the couple of days, indicating
that antecedent conditions are on par for today's fire threat.
The latest forecast guidance also shows that the dryline will mix
slightly farther east than originally indicated with a slightly more
northerly track of the Front Range surface low as well. This
necessitated a slight expansion of elevated conditions to the north
and east. Additionally, the Critical area was expanded slightly to
the east to account for slightly stronger winds associated with the
southern extent of the jet maximum over the Texas/Oklahoma
Panhandles and southeast New Mexico.
..Stearns/Nauslar.. 03/05/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1239 AM CST Thu Mar 05 2026/
...Synopsis...
A deepening upper-level trough will dig southeastward into the Four
Corners through today, with associated lee surface cyclogenesis
across the central High Plains. This surface cyclone will shift
southeastward through the period, with a trailing dryline across the
southern/central High Plains. Strong southwesterly surface winds and
very low RH behind this dryline will support widespread elevated to
critical fire weather conditions across portions of the central and
southern High Plains.
...Eastern/central New Mexico into southeastern Colorado and the
extreme western Oklahoma Panhandle...
As the aforementioned upper-level trough digs into the Four Corners
through today, a surface cyclone will deepen in the lee of the
central Rockies before shifting southeastward. In response to the
deepening cyclone, a tightening surface pressure gradient behind a
sharpening dryline will promote dry, southwesterly downslope flow
across much of the central/southern High Plains. Critical fire
weather conditions are expected across much of eastern/central New
Mexico into southeastern Colorado and the extreme western Oklahoma
Panhandle where the best overlap of stronger sustained surface winds
(20-25 mph), very low RH values (5-15%), and receptive fuels is
expected. Sporadic wind gusts of 35-45 mph will also be possible,
with the greatest potential across a corridor from east-central New
Mexico northeastward to southeastern Colorado where a 40-50 kt 700
mb jet max will overlap a deep, well-mixed boundary layer.
Elsewhere across the central/southern High Plains and Southwest,
sustained westerly to southwesterly surface winds of 15-20 mph will
overlap low RH of 10-20%, supporting elevated fire weather
conditions from southeastern Colorado/western Kansas southward into
West Texas and southeastern Arizona. There remains some uncertainty
regarding the eastern extent of the elevated/critical fire weather
conditions due to the placement/movement of the dryline. This will
continue to be monitored for any adjustments.
Some consideration was given to a potential dry thunderstorm threat,
primarily in the vicinity of the western Texas/Oklahoma Panhandles;
however, the potential for convective initiation to occur farther
west and overlap areas of elevated to critical fire weather concerns
appears low at this time.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
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