RSS Mesoscale Discussions from Storm Prediction Center
No watches are valid as of Fri Apr 3 17:47:02 UTC 2026.
No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Fri Apr 3 17:47:02 UTC 2026.
SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1106 AM CDT Fri Apr 03 2026
Valid 031630Z - 041200Z
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING OVER PARTS OF SOUTHERN IOWA...NORTHERN MISSOURI...AND
WESTERN ILLINOIS....
...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are expected to evolve into an extensive line this
evening from Iowa to Oklahoma and northwest Texas, with the primary
threats of large hail and damaging winds. A few tornadoes are also
possible in any supercells that can form ahead of the line over
parts of Iowa, Missouri, and central Illinois.
...MO/IA/IL...
Latest surface analysis shows a low over northeast KS. This low
will track northeastward across southern IA today, with the
associated warm front lifting northward into northern IL. The air
mass in the warm sector of the low will be relatively moist and
unstable with dewpoints in the lower 60s and afternoon MLCAPE values
of 2000 J/kg. Thunderstorms are expected to develop near the
surface low in IA, and more widely scattered storms eastward along
the warm front. A few supercells are possible across this region,
with a concern for tornadoes, large hail, and damaging winds in the
most intense cells.
...MO/KS/OK/TX...
An extensive line of thunderstorms is expected to form along the
cold front this afternoon from western MO into southeast KS and much
of OK. Ample low-level moisture and CAPE will be present ahead of
the storms, along with sufficient deep-layer shear for
rotating/bowing storm structures. Large hail and damaging winds
appear to be the main concern, but a tornado or two are also
possible.
..Hart/Wendt.. 04/03/2026
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SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook CORR 1
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1245 PM CDT Fri Apr 03 2026
Valid 041200Z - 051200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHEASTERN INDIANA...NORTHERN
KENTUCKY...MUCH OF OHIO...SOUTHEASTERN LOWER MICHIGAN...WESTERN
PENNSYLVANIA AND NEW YORK...
CORRECTED FOR WORDING AND TYPOS
...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms may develop and overspread the lower Great
Lakes vicinity and middle through upper Ohio Valley Saturday
afternoon and evening, accompanied by strong to severe wind gusts
and potential for a couple of tornadoes.
...Discussion...
As mid-level ridging builds further across the British Columbia and
Pacific Northwest vicinity Saturday through Saturday night, models
indicate that several digging downstream short wave troughs across
the Canadian Prairies into the northern U.S. Great Plains may
contribute to the northeastward acceleration of a notable mid-level
low, now slowly turning eastward toward the middle Missouri Valley.
In response to these developments, an initially modest surface
cyclone associated with the lead perturbation is generally forecast
to undergo substantive deepening while occluding across and
northeast of the upper Great Lakes vicinity. A secondary cyclone
may form across the southeastern Michigan through Lake
Huron/Georgian Bay/adjacent Ontario vicinity by Saturday afternoon,
with a trailing cold front continuing to advance east of the
Mississippi Valley and southward through the southern Great Plains,
into the Appalachians/lower Mississippi Valley/northwest Gulf coast
vicinity by early Sunday.
Initially cold, stable air to the north of a preceding front may
remain entrenched across much of New England through this period,
while widespread thunderstorm development today through tonight cuts
off the advection of elevated mixed-layer air and associated steeper
mid-level lapse rates to the east of the Mississippi Valley. At the
same time, the impact of lingering pre-frontal convective
development, associated surface outflow and northeastward/eastward
advecting remnant cloud cover on subsequent destabilization within a
potentially expanding warm sector across the mid/upper Ohio Valley
and lower Great Lakes region remains unclear.
...Ohio Valley into lower Great Lakes region...
Conditionally, a relatively moist (60+ F surface dew points) air
mass within the evolving warm sector is likely to become conducive
to organized severe thunderstorm development, including supercells,
Saturday afternoon and evening. However, stronger mid/upper support
for ascent may remain displaced to the northwest of much of the
destabilizing warm sector, with strongest forcing for convection
confined to the front, or, perhaps more likely, a conglomerate
pre-frontal outflow.
Although the signal in model output is not particularly strong, it
appears possible that convection may begin re-intensifying along the
leading outflow boundary while overspreading southeastern Lower
Michigan into the lower Ohio Valley by early afternoon. As this
occurs, strong lower/mid-tropospheric shear beneath south to
southwesterly wind fields strengthening to 40-60+ kt in the 850-500
mb layer will be more than sufficient to support organization and
increasing risk for severe wind gusts and tornadoes. This threat
likely will persist as activity overspreads much of the remainder of
the Ohio Valley and lower Great Lakes region into Saturday evening.
...Parts of the Mid South into northwestern Gulf Coast...
Weaker mid/upper forcing for ascent, deep-layer mean wind field and
shear suggest more limited severe weather potential than further
north. However, somewhat better boundary-layer moisture, including
mid 60s F+ dew points, may contribute moderate CAPE ahead of
southeastward advancing convective outflow. It appears possible
that this could support re-intensification of convection that could
become accompanied by sporadic damaging downbursts late Saturday
afternoon into evening.
..Kerr.. 04/03/2026
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SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1045 AM CDT Fri Apr 03 2026
Valid 031700Z - 041200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL/EASTERN NEW
MEXICO INTO THE EXTREME WESTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE...
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN COLORADO INTO
WESTERN KANSAS...
The Critical areas remain on track from the previous forecast. The
Elevated area was slightly adjusted to include additional portions
of the central Plains where the latest forecast guidance indicates
criteria will be met this afternoon. In agreement with local Red
Flags, fuels guidance also shows that recent rainfall over northeast
Colorado and south-central Nebraska has had little impact on fine
dead moisture going into today. Additionally, areas near the
south-central New Mexico mountains, where fuels remain exceptionally
dry, cannot be ruled out of elevated conditions behind the frontal
passage this evening according to the latest forecast guidance.
..Stearns.. 04/03/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0134 AM CDT Fri Apr 03 2026/
...Synopsis...
A mid-level, shortwave trough currently analyzed across the northern
Rockies will eject northeastward across the central/northern Great
Plains today. At the surface, an associated surface cyclone will
shift from the central Great Plains into the Midwest with a trailing
cold front progressing southward across the central and southern
High Plains through the period.
...Portions of the Southern High Plains...
High pressure across the Intermountain West coupled with low
pressure across the central Plains and surface troughing in the lee
of the southern Rockies will favor strong westerly, downslope winds
of 20-25 mph (with the potential for occasional gusts of 30-40 mph)
along the I40 corridor in central/eastern New Mexico. With minimum
RH values forecast around 10-15% and receptive fuels across the
region, this will support critical fire weather conditions for at
least a few hours this afternoon.
A southward progressing cold front will then bring a shift to
northerly winds later this evening and into tonight. Latest guidance
suggests that RH will be slow to recover behind this front, with
spotty 15-25 mph sustained north-northwesterly winds overlapping RH
below 20%. This may bring an extended and/or additional period of
elevated fire weather concerns to portions of eastern and southern
New Mexico and West Texas into tonight as the front progresses
southward. The greatest potential for these conditions is expected
in the lee of the Sacramento/Guadelupe Mountains in eastern New
Mexico/West Texas and within the Jornada del Muerto and Tularosa
Valley in southern New Mexico where terrain effects may yield local
wind enhancements.
...Portions of the Central High Plains...
In the wake of a cold frontal passage, westerly downslope flow will
develop as the aforementioned mid-level trough begins to eject
northeastward across the central Great Plains. Sustained 20-25 mph
northwesterly winds (locally higher) are forecast to overlap very
low RH of 10-15% across portions of the central High Plains,
supporting critical fire weather concerns. The best overlap of these
conditions is forecast to the southeast of Royal Gorge in Colorado
(where high-res guidance depicts stronger winds owing to terrain
effects) and into western Kansas. While RH is forecast to remain
more marginal (15-20%) farther north in the lee of the Front Range,
sustained winds around 25 mph (with the potential for periodic gusts
to 35-45 mph) amid very dry fuels supported the inclusion of this
area in the Critical highlights. Elevated fire weather concerns are
forecast across adjacent areas of the central High Plains where
northwesterly surface winds of 15-20 mph are expected to overlap low
RH of 10-20%.
...Southern Nevada into the Low/High Desert of California...
A locally strong Santa Ana event will peak this afternoon, with
sustained north-northeasterly winds of 20-30 mph (gusts to 50 mph)
and very low RH values of 10-15% traversing southern Nevada, the
Low/High Desert of California, and the wind-prone areas surrounding
the Los Angeles metro. While elevated live fuel moisture is expected
to preclude widespread concerns, these conditions may support
locally elevated fire weather conditions for areas with drier fine
fuels.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
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