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  Tuesday August 14, 2018

RSS Mesoscale Discussions from Storm Prediction Center

SPC - No watches are valid as of Tue Aug 14 11:02:01 UTC 2018

No watches are valid as of Tue Aug 14 11:02:01 UTC 2018.


No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Tue Aug 14 11:02:01 UTC 2018.

SPC Aug 14, 2018 0730 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
      
Day 3 Outlook Image
Day 3 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0228 AM CDT Tue Aug 14 2018

Valid 161200Z - 171200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER A PORTION
OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS AS WELL AS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI...TENNESSEE
AND OHIO VALLEYS...

...SUMMARY...
A few strong to severe storms will be possible Thursday over a part
of the central Plains, as well as from the lower Mississippi Valley
into the Tennessee and Ohio Valleys.

...Synopsis...

Deamplifying shortwave trough will move northeast through the Ohio
Valley, while an upstream impulse embedded within northwest flow
advances southeast through the Central Plains and middle MS Valley.
A convectively reinforced front will advance slowly south through
the central Plains, while a weaker front/trough accompanies the
shortwave trough into the OH Valley, with trailing portion extending
southwest into OK.

...Central Plains into the middle Mississippi Valley...

A moist warm sector with dewpoints in the mid to upper 60s should
reside in vicinity of front beneath modest (7 C/km) mid-level lapse
rates, and the atmosphere will likely become moderately unstable as
the surface layer warms during the day. Storms may be ongoing within
zone of ascent along/north of the front across a part of NE, but
with new development likely during the afternoon along the front and
residual outflow boundaries as the surface layer destabilizes. A
belt of modest northwesterly winds aloft accompanying the shortwave
trough will support 35-45 kt effective bulk shear. A few organized
storms including embedded supercell structures capable of isolated
large hail and damaging wind are possible with some potential for
upscale growth into a small MCS during the evening. Have introduced
a marginal risk for this outlook, but a slight risk may be needed in
later updates.

...Ohio, Tennessee and lower Mississippi Valley regions...

A belt of stronger winds in the 850-700 mb layer is forecast to
accompany the shortwave trough the OH Valley region during the day.
Areas of showers and storms with widespread clouds will likely be in
progress early Thursday within plume of subtropical moisture and
weak cap. However, partial clearing and pockets of heating may
occur, especially south of the warm conveyor belt, and additional
storms may develop during the afternoon. While vertical shear will
remain weak, the stronger flow in the 850-500 mb layer may increase
the threat for locally strong to damaging wind gusts with
redevelopment of multicells and line segments during the afternoon.
Other storms may develop along trailing part of the boundary as far
back as AR and OK. Uncertainty regarding evolution of the
thermodynamic environment precludes more than a marginal risk this
update, but area will continue to be monitored for a possible slight
risk.

..Dial.. 08/14/2018

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SPC Aug 14, 2018 Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook

Day 4-8 Outlook
      
Day 4-8 Outlook Image
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0354 AM CDT Tue Aug 14 2018

Valid 171200Z - 221200Z

...DISCUSSION...
Model consensus is that, in the mean, the synoptic-scale pattern
will remain dominated by an upper trough in the east and an upper
ridge centered over the Great Basin through much of days 4-8.
Shortwave troughs embedded within this pattern will move from the
Pacific NW through the Plains and into the eastern states. 

Friday (Day 4) Showers and storms will likely be ongoing over the
northeast states, augmented by a weak, northeast-ejecting shortwave
trough, as well as farther southwest through the OH Valley and lower
MS Valley in association with a progressive shortwave trough.  While
afternoon redevelopment appears probable, primarily south of ongoing
activity from the Middle Atlantic into the TN Valley, overall severe
potential appears somewhat conditional/limited due to modest winds
aloft along with thermodynamic uncertainties imposed by ongoing
storms and widespread clouds.

Saturday (Day 5) Storms may become more numerous over higher terrain
and spread east into the High Plains as another weak shortwave
trough moves through the northern and central Rockies. Generally
weak winds aloft suggest multicells will be the dominant mode with a
threat for isolated downburst winds.

Beyond day 5 ensemble spreads increase suggesting low severe-storm
predictability.

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SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
          
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook Image
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0147 AM CDT Tue Aug 14 2018

Valid 141200Z - 151200Z

...Synopsis...
An upper-level ridge will again amplify over the western CONUS
today. An area of stronger mid-level flow will be present across
parts of the northern Great Basin as a shortwave trough passes over
the area. Mid-level moisture will increase across the Great Basin
into portions of western Wyoming due to the combined influx from the
remnants of Tropical Storm John and monsoon.

...Snake River Valley into Southwestern Wyoming...
Stronger mid-level flow will mix to the surface during the
afternoon. Elevated fire weather conditions are expected with
surface winds of 15-20 mph and afternoon RH falling to 5-15%.

...Northern Sierra Nevada...Central Great Basin...Western
Wyoming...portion of south-central Montana...
With an influx of tropical moisture across the region, potential
exists for isolated dry thunderstorms, particularly across central
Utah northward into Wyoming and Montana, where PWAT values of
0.5-0.75 inch will coincide with storm motions of 35-40 mph. Storm
coverage will likely be greatest across parts of central Nevada,
however, storm motions will be slower in this region leading to an
increase in potential for wetting rainfall. A scattered area will
not be introduced for that region.

..Wendt.. 08/14/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

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SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
          
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook Image
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0212 AM CDT Tue Aug 14 2018

Valid 151200Z - 161200Z

...Synopsis...
An upper-level ridge will continue to build across the western
CONUS. Mid-level moisture will remain in place with further
monsoonal influx with additional moisture from the remnants of
Tropical Storm John. As a shortwave departs to the east, remnant
mid-level flow will be present across southwestern Wyoming.

...Southwestern/south-central Wyoming...
An elevated area has been added where a well-mixed boundary layer
will allow stronger mid-level flow to mix to the surface. Amidst
critically dry fuels, surface winds of 15-20 mph will be present
along with afternoon RH values of 5-15%.

...Cascades/Columbia Basin of Oregon...Northern/Central Great
Basin...Northern Sierra Nevada...
Isolated dry thunderstorms will be possible during the afternoon
across areas where adequate mid-level moisture will be in place.
PWAT values will generally range from 0.6-0.8 in., but storm motions
of 30-40 mph should support at least a mix of wet/dry storms. Given
fuel dryness across the region, even storms on the wetter end of the
spectrum can potentially lead to lightning-based ignitions.

..Wendt.. 08/14/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

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