RSS Mesoscale Discussions from Storm Prediction Center
No watches are valid as of Fri Jan 23 11:40:02 UTC 2026.
No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Fri Jan 23 11:40:02 UTC 2026.
SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0230 AM CST Fri Jan 23 2026
Valid 251200Z - 261200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF
THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN GULF COAST...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe storms are possible over portions of the
central and eastern Gulf Coast Sunday.
...Synopsis...
Intensifying mid-level troughing over the central US will continue
to amplify as it moves eastward Sunday. Strong cyclonic flow aloft
will overspread portions of the southern US as a second embedded
perturbation skirts the central and eastern Gulf Coast before being
consolidated into the broader upper trough. Ascent from this
shortwave will allow a weak surface low to develop and shift
east/northeastward over the Tennessee Valley before moving offshore
of the Carolina coast early Monday. Attendant to the low, a strong
arctic cold front will sweep eastward across the southern CONUS.
Modified Gulf moisture will be in place, supporting weak instability
and some potential for strong to severe storms.
...Gulf Coast...
As the surface low moves onshore and deepens ahead of the advancing
shortwave early Sunday, inland moisture advection (60s F surface
dewpoints) is expected to increase over southeastern LA into
southern MS/AL and the western FL Panhandle in the wake of a surface
warm front lifting northward. Ongoing elevated convection near the
advancing cold front will likely encounter a warming/moistening
boundary layer sufficient for some intensification through the day
across south-central AL into the FL panhandle and southwestern GA.
Increasing southwesterly flow aloft (EBWD of 50-60 kt) will be
favorable for some storm organization amidst weak buoyancy (MLCAPE ~
500 J/kg). A broken band of storms along the cold front may pose a
risk for isolated damaging gusts and brief tornado where the
boundary layer can destabilize sufficiently inland south of the
prominent cold air intrusion/damming and ongoing winter weather. The
cold front will then continue offshore overnight with the severe
risk diminishing as a much colder air mass envelops the eastern
CONUS.
..Lyons.. 01/23/2026
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Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0353 AM CST Fri Jan 23 2026
Valid 261200Z - 311200Z
...DISCUSSION...
Amplified mid-level flow will persist over the US through next week
with troughing generally over the East and a building ridge to the
West. This will favor continued northwesterly flow aloft and
reinforcement of an extensive cold air outbreak and Arctic high
pressure over the lower 48. With little to no inland moisture
transport expected over the next week, severe weather is unlikely.
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SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0141 AM CST Fri Jan 23 2026
Valid 231200Z - 241200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
...Synopsis...
Fire weather concerns are expected to be low across the CONUS today.
A mid-level trough and southward moving cold front will usher in
cold conditions and widespread mix of precipitation into the central
and southern Plains, improving dry fuels and keeping fire concerns
low.
..Thornton.. 01/23/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
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SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0142 AM CST Fri Jan 23 2026
Valid 241200Z - 251200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
...Synopsis...
Broad troughing across the central US will continue to bring several
rounds of precipitation from the Plains into portions of the Eastern
US on Saturday. In addition, a cold arctic air mass will be in place
across much of the CONUS. Fire concerns will remain minimal given
widespread cold and wet conditions.
..Thornton.. 01/23/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
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