RSS Mesoscale Discussions from Storm Prediction Center
No watches are valid as of Sat Dec 20 10:52:02 UTC 2025.
No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Sat Dec 20 10:52:02 UTC 2025.
SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0126 AM CST Sat Dec 20 2025
Valid 221200Z - 231200Z
...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Monday.
...Discussion...
The large-scale pattern will undergo modest amplification on Monday
via additional upper ridging over the south-central CONUS and
northern Mexico. As a surface high continues to transition
east-southeastward along the Eastern Seaboard/Southeast, moderate
low-level moistening will occur north-northeastward across
Louisiana/eastern half of Texas toward the ArkLaTex. A few
thunderstorms could occur within this warm/moist advection regime,
but it currently appears that upper ridging and related mid-level
capping should considerably limit thunderstorm potential. In the
Pacific Northwest, a few lightning flashes could occur near coastal
Washington, but this potential should remain limited/isolated while
also trending less thermodynamically favorable by late in the day.
..Guyer.. 12/20/2025
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Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0236 AM CST Sat Dec 20 2025
Valid 231200Z - 281200Z
...DISCUSSION...
The large-scale pattern next week will be highlighted by prominent
upper ridging and anomalously high 500-mb heights over much of the
central to eastern CONUS, with upper troughing developing toward the
West Coast by mid/late week. This pattern should considerably limit
deep convective potential over much of the CONUS, even while a
relatively warm/moist airmass will exist across the Plains and
Midwest.
With the approach of a low-latitude upper trough and increasing
moisture, thunderstorm potential, potentially including some
strong/locally severe storms with gusty winds, could occur across
coastal portions of central and southern California during the last
half of Wednesday/Day 5 into Thursday/Day 6 Christmas. However, the
degree of destabilization and some synoptic-related forecast details
remain uncertain.
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SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0110 AM CST Sat Dec 20 2025
Valid 201200Z - 211200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF FAR EASTERN NEW MEXICO
INTO THE TEXAS SOUTH PLAINS...
...Synopsis...
A mid-level trough will gradually amplify while traversing the Great
Lakes today, encouraging the southward translation of a weakening
surface low across the southern Plains. As a result, dry downslope
flow is expected across portions of eastern New Mexico into western
Texas ahead of a southward-sagging surface cold front today. During
the afternoon, with boundary-layer mixing, RH will drop below 20
percent over several locales as sustained westerly surface winds
exceeding 15 mph becomes abundant, warranting the continuation of
Elevated highlights. Guidance consensus continues to depict
overlapping 20+ mph sustained westerly surface winds amid 15 percent
RH along portions of the New Mexico/Texas border, where Critical
highlights have been maintained.
..Squitieri.. 12/20/2025
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
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SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0112 AM CST Sat Dec 20 2025
Valid 211200Z - 221200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
...Synopsis...
Upper ridging will prevail over much of the CONUS tomorrow (Sunday),
with surface high pressure becoming established east of the
Mississippi River as surface lee troughing and associated southerly
flow overspreads the Plains states. While breezy conditions are
likely across parts of the central into southern Plains, modest
moisture return may accompany the windy southerly flow, which may
limit wildfire-spread potential. As such, overall quiescent fire
weather conditions are likely across the CONUS on Sunday.
..Squitieri.. 12/20/2025
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
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