RSS Mesoscale Discussions from Storm Prediction Center
WW 14 SEVERE TSTM KS 060235Z - 061000Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 14
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
835 PM CST Thu Mar 5 2026
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of
South Central Kansas
* Effective this Thursday night and Friday morning from 835 PM
until 400 AM CST.
* Primary threats include...
Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2
inches in diameter likely
Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely
A tornado or two possible
SUMMARY...A few intense thunderstorms over north-central Oklahoma
will track northward into the watch area overnight, with some risk
of large hail and perhaps damaging wind gusts.
The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 50
statute miles east and west of a line from 30 miles northeast of
Wichita KS to 45 miles south of Wichita KS. For a complete depiction
of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS
WOU4).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.
&&
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 13...
AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A
few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector
23030.
...Hart
Read more
WW 0014 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 14
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0146
..DEAN..03/06/26
ATTN...WFO...ICT...
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 14
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
KSC015-035-077-079-095-155-173-191-060940-
KS
. KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BUTLER COWLEY HARPER
HARVEY KINGMAN RENO
SEDGWICK SUMNER
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
Read more
No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Fri Mar 6 09:36:01 UTC 2026.
SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1208 AM CST Fri Mar 06 2026
Valid 061200Z - 071200Z
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF
NORTHERN TEXAS ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND KANSAS...AND INTO WESTERN
ARKANSAS...MISSOURI...AND SOUTHWEST IOWA...
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN TEXAS NORTHEASTWARD INTO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN...
...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected from late afternoon
through tonight from parts of the southern Great Plains to the
Midwest. The greatest potential for a couple strong tornadoes and
isolated very large hail is across eastern portions of
Oklahoma/Kansas and western portions of Arkansas/Missouri.
...Synopsis...
An upper wave within a broader positive-tilt trough will eject out
of CO and into the northern Plains late in the day, with a 70+ kt
midlevel jet moving from NM across KS, NE, and into IA and MN late.
South of this jet, height tendencies will be relatively neutral for
much of the period, with falls generally from KS northward late in
the day.
At the surface, a cold front will push south to a southern MN to
southwest KS line by 00Z, with low pressure over southern
KS/northwest OK. A dryline will extend south from the low into
western OK and west-central TX at the same time. East of the
dryline, dewpoints will rise firmly into the mid 60s F.
Meanwhile, a warm front will push rapidly north across IA/IL/IN
during the day, reaching into southern WI and southern Lower MI by
late afternoon. Above the moistening boundary layer, a broad fetch
of 40-60 kt southwest winds at 850 mb will exist, aiding both
theta-e advection and enhancing low-level shear over a large area.
...Southern Great Plains to the Midwest...
A complex forecast scenario will exist today, with multiple areas of
severe potential, some highly conditional. Large-scale ascent
appears to be most favorable from the surface low in KS
northeastward along the cold front, and along portions of the warm
front from IA eastward. Bouts of thunderstorms are probable across
IA and vicinity, with both bowing structures and supercells
producing wind, hail, and perhaps a tornado. Additional storms are
expected along the warm front across parts of IL, IN, and into
southern Lower MI, and while instability will be weaker, low-level
shear will favor rotating storms and perhaps some tornado risk.
Another focused area of potential will be from northern TX into
eastern OK, western AR and southwest MO, where increasingly deep
moisture to 700 mb and daytime heating well east of the dryline may
yield a zone of tornado potential. Mid 60s F dewpoints, southwest
850 mb winds to 50 kt and effective SRH of 200-300 m2/s2 suggest any
storms that form within this zone may have tornado potential.
A more conditional risk of supercells, including tornado and very
large hail, will exist along the length of the dryline from
south-central KS across parts of central OK and into western-north
Texas. Here, models are having difficulty producing precipitation
with a relatively stationary dryline and the wave passing well to
the north. However, strong heating west of the dryline will occur,
at least a narrow zone of isolated supercell potential will develop.
Perhaps after a full days heating and toward 00Z, an isolated
supercell or two will be able to form somewhere along the dryline,
assuming capping remains minimal and low-level convergence is
non-zero. Very large hail as well as tornadoes are conditionally
possible in this scenario.
Overnight as the cold front continues southeast across northeast OK
and MO, shear will remain favorable for QLCS tornadoes.
..Jewell/Chalmers.. 03/06/2026
Read more
SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1253 AM CST Fri Mar 06 2026
Valid 071200Z - 081200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL TEXAS
TO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY TO LOWER
GREAT LAKES...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms are possible from
Saturday morning into the evening across a broad swath of the
southern Great Plains to the Lower Great Lakes. Isolated very large
hail may occur in parts of Texas.
...Synopsis...
An upper shortwave trough, with multiple embedded shortwave
impulses, will migrate east across the Midwest and Great Lakes
regions on Saturday. Meanwhile, an upper low over the
Southwest/Lower CO Valley will continue to retrograde, becoming
positioned offshore from Baja CA by Sunday morning. At the surface,
low pressure over the Upper Great Lakes will deepen as it shifts
northeast across Ontario and Quebec. A trailing cold front will
extend south/southwest from the low toward the Lower MO Valley and
into north and central TX at the beginning of the period. This front
will sweep east/southeast across the Midwest and Mid-South/TN Valley
vicinity, while the Plains portion of the front develops southward
across TX.
...Ohio Valley and Lower Great Lakes vicinity...
Convection will be ongoing across portions of the region Saturday
morning along outflow positioned well ahead of the synoptic cold
front. Southwesterly low-level flow and the deepening surface
cyclone over the Great Lakes will maintain upper 50s to low 60s F
dewpoints across the region. Cloudiness and ongoing convection will
limit surface heating. However, strong deep-layer southwesterly flow
and modest destabilization (MLCAPE 500-1000 J/kg) will support
sustained thunderstorm development into the afternoon/evening.
The greatest risk for severe appears to be across the Upper Ohio
Valley where some stronger heating is possible. Sufficient low-level
speed shear will be present to enlarge low-level hodographs.
Furthermore, 0-1 km SRH values near 150 m2/s2 are noted in some
forecast soundings. However, linear convection is expected to be the
main storm mode given boundary-parallel deep-layer southwesterly
flow, promoting mainly a damaging wind risk. However, if any
cellular convection develops, an isolated risk for marginally severe
hail and a tornado or two also will be possible.
...TX into the Mid-South and Lower MS/TN Valleys...
Convection is expected to be ongoing near the surface front Saturday
morning. Some of this convection may be elevated as it quickly
becomes undercut by the cold front, especially near the Red River
into portions of AR. This activity may pose a risk for severe hail
early in the period across north TX into southeast OK and parts of
AR. Convection is expected to develop south and east along the front
through the day. The downstream warm sector will be characterized by
low to mid 60s F dewpoints beneath steep midlevel lapse rates,
supporting MLCAPE in the 500-1500 J/kg range. Linear convection will
be most predominant across the Mid-South into the TN valley where a
risk for isolated to scattered wind damage and marginal hail will
exist through the afternoon before a weakening trend ensues after
sunset across the Deep South.
Across TX, steeper midlevel lapse rates are forecast. Low level flow
is expected to remain modest further removed from the upper
shortwave trough and surface cyclone across the Midwest/Great Lakes.
However, stronger heating, steeper low and midlevel lapse rates, and
favorable wind profiles for organized supercells will support a
corridor of severe hail potential from central TX toward southwest
AR/northwest LA near the undercutting cold front. The strongest
storms could produce hail in the 1.5-2 inch range.
..Leitman.. 03/06/2026
Read more
SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0200 AM CST Fri Mar 06 2026
Valid 081200Z - 091200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms potential is low on Sunday.
...Synopsis...
A lower-amplitude upper-level pattern defined by westerly flow aloft
east of the Rockies will overspread the central and eastern U.S. on
Sunday. Meanwhile, an upper low will persist offshore from Baja CA.
At the surface, a cold front will move offshore the Northeast coast
by late afternoon. The southern extension of this boundary will
stall from the Mid-Atlantic into the TN Valley. Meanwhile, the
western portion of the boundary across eastern and southern TX will
lift northward late in the period. Gulf moisture will remain in
place across the southeast U.S. into TX, but limited large-scale
ascent and lack of height falls within the quasi-zonal regime will
limit severe potential. Nevertheless, isolated thunderstorms may be
ongoing across parts of the Lower MS Valley along remnant outflow
from the Day 2/Sat period. The warm advection regime across TX also
may support isolated thunderstorms through the period. Overall,
severe thunderstorm potential appears low.
..Leitman.. 03/06/2026
Read more
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0127 AM CST Fri Mar 06 2026
Valid 061200Z - 071200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR EASTERN NEW MEXICO...SOUTHWEST
KANSAS...THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE...AND MUCH OF WEST TEXAS...
...Synopsis...
Split mid-level flow will develop over the CONUS through today as an
upper-level shortwave trough centered over the Four Corners ejects
northeastward across the central Great Plains while a cutoff low
develops over Arizona. At the surface, a strong lee surface cyclone
will develop southeastward from Colorado into northwestern Oklahoma
before transitioning quickly northeastward across the central Great
Plains. Strong southwesterly surface winds and very low RH values
behind a trailing dryline will support elevated to critical fire
weather conditions across portions of the southern High Plains. A
strong cold front will then progress southward late in the period.
...Eastern New Mexico into portions of West Texas and the
Texas/Oklahoma Panhandles...
Southwesterly mid-level flow will strengthen as a shortwave trough
ejects northeastward across the central Great Plains today. Aided by
a strong surface pressure gradient to the southwest of the surface
low, this mid-level flow will contribute to sustained southwesterly
surface winds of 20-25 mph overlapping very low RH values of 10-15%
behind an eastward progressing dryline. With receptive fuels across
the region, these conditions will yield critical fire weather
conditions across much of eastern New Mexico and West Texas
northward through the Oklahoma/Texas Panhandles and into
southwestern Kansas. The lone exception is across portions of the
eastern Texas Panhandle where two areas of recent heavier rainfall
are expected to locally reduce fire weather concerns. Within the
Critical highlights, a 40+ kt 700 mb jet overlapping steep low-level
lapse rates will favor a corridor of locally stronger winds
(sustained surface winds of 20-30 mph with sporadic gusts to 35-45
mph possible) from east-central New Mexico northeastward into the
Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles.
Elsewhere across the southern High Plains, westerly to southwesterly
sustained surface winds of 15-20 mph will overlap low RH values of
10-20%, supporting elevated fire weather conditions from the Texas
Big Bend northward to southeastern Colorado and southwestern Kansas.
A cold front will then move southward late in the period, bringing a
wind shift to north/northeasterly winds, which may allow for an
additional 2-3 hours of elevated fire weather conditions before
cooler temperatures and increased RH filter in.
Some uncertainty remains regarding the northern and eastern extents
of elevated/critical conditions due to the timing of the cold front
as well as the movement of the dryline, respectively. This will
continue to be monitored closely for any additional adjustments.
..Chalmers/Moore.. 03/06/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0218 AM CST Fri Mar 06 2026
Valid 071200Z - 081200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
...Synopsis...
Upper-level flow will split on D2/Saturday, with a mid-level
shortwave trough ejecting northeastward across the central Great
Plains and Great Lakes regions while a closed upper-low retrogrades
southwestward across portions of the Southwest, eventually settling
off the coast of northern Baja California. At the surface,
moderately strong high pressure will build into the Great Basin,
with a low pressure center settling over Baja California. Meanwhile,
a second surface low will progress northeastward from the northern
Great Lakes across southeastern Canada, with an attendant cold front
moving southeastward across the eastern CONUS. Widespread
precipitation and cooler temperatures accompanying this front are
expected to limit fire weather concerns at this time.
...Portions of Southern California...
Aided by strong northeasterly mid-level flow aloft, the placement of
the aforementioned surface features across the West will contribute
to strong and gusty offshore/northeast flow over portions of
Southern California. Sustained northeasterly surface winds of 20-25
mph (with gusts as high as 35-45 mph in favored coastal/terrain
areas) are forecast to overlap reduced RH of 15-20%; however,
unreceptive fuels are expected to preclude widespread fire weather
concerns at this time.
..Chalmers/Moore.. 03/06/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
|
