RSS Mesoscale Discussions from Storm Prediction Center
WW 473 SEVERE TSTM IA NE 082220Z - 090500Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 473
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
520 PM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of
North central into west central Iowa
South central into east central Nebraska
* Effective this Wednesday afternoon from 520 PM until Midnight
CDT.
* Primary threats include...
Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible
Isolated large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible
SUMMARY...Scattered thunderstorms are expected from northern Iowa
into eastern Nebraska through late evening, with a mix of multicell
clusters and transient supercells. Damaging gusts of 60-70 mph will
be the main threat, though the stronger storms could produce
isolated large hail of 1-1.5 inches in diameter.
The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 55
statute miles north and south of a line from 20 miles west northwest
of Hastings NE to 30 miles south southeast of Mason City IA. For a
complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline
update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU3).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.
&&
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 471...WW 472...
AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A
few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 550. Mean storm motion vector
32020.
...Thompson
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WW 472 SEVERE TSTM CO NE WY 081925Z - 090200Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 472
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
125 PM MDT Wed Jul 8 2026
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of
Eastern Colorado
Nebraska Panhandle
Southeast Wyoming
* Effective this Wednesday afternoon and evening from 125 PM
until 800 PM MDT.
* Primary threats include...
Scattered damaging winds and isolated significant gusts to 75
mph likely
Isolated large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible
SUMMARY...Thunderstorms will continue to develop over the mountains
and foothills of Colorado/Wyoming and spread eastward through the
afternoon. The strongest storms will pose a risk of severe wind
gusts and hail.
The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 60
statute miles east and west of a line from 55 miles east northeast
of Douglas WY to 25 miles south southeast of La Junta CO. For a
complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline
update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU2).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.
&&
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 471...
AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 65 knots. A
few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector
27030.
...Hart
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WW 471 SEVERE TSTM IA MN WI LM 081900Z - 090300Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 471
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
200 PM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of
Northeast Iowa
Southeast Minnesota
Southern Wisconsin
Lake Michigan
* Effective this Wednesday afternoon and evening from 200 PM
until 1000 PM CDT.
* Primary threats include...
Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible
Isolated large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible
A tornado or two possible
SUMMARY...Thunderstorms are expected to intensify along a boundary
across parts of southern Minnesota and southern Wisconsin, with a
few severe storms possible. Damaging winds and large hail are the
main risks.
The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 50
statute miles north and south of a line from 40 miles northwest of
Mason City IA to 20 miles southeast of Manitowoc WI. For a complete
depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update
(WOUS64 KWNS WOU1).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.
&&
AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A
few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector
26030.
...Hart
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WW 0473 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 473
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 S BBW TO
20 SW OFK TO 20 ESE SUX TO 20 SW FOD TO 35 W MCW TO 35 ENE MCW.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1550
..MOORE..07/09/26
ATTN...WFO...DMX...FSD...OAX...GID...
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 473
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
IAC009-015-017-023-027-029-033-047-049-069-073-075-077-079-081-
083-085-091-129-133-155-165-169-187-197-090240-
IA
. IOWA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
AUDUBON BOONE BREMER
BUTLER CARROLL CASS
CERRO GORDO CRAWFORD DALLAS
FRANKLIN GREENE GRUNDY
GUTHRIE HAMILTON HANCOCK
HARDIN HARRISON HUMBOLDT
MILLS MONONA POTTAWATTAMIE
SHELBY STORY WEBSTER
WRIGHT
NEC001-019-021-023-025-035-037-039-053-055-059-061-067-079-081-
093-095-099-109-121-125-129-131-141-143-151-153-155-159-163-169-
177-181-185-090240-
NE
. NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
Read more
WW 0472 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 472
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..DEAN..07/08/26
ATTN...WFO...PUB...GLD...BOU...CYS...
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 472
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
COC011-017-025-039-061-063-073-075-087-089-095-099-115-121-123-
125-082240-
CO
. COLORADO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BENT CHEYENNE CROWLEY
ELBERT KIOWA KIT CARSON
LINCOLN LOGAN MORGAN
OTERO PHILLIPS PROWERS
SEDGWICK WASHINGTON WELD
YUMA
NEC007-013-033-045-105-123-157-165-082240-
NE
. NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BANNER BOX BUTTE CHEYENNE
DAWES KIMBALL MORRILL
SCOTTS BLUFF SIOUX
WYC009-015-021-027-031-082240-
Read more
WW 0471 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 471
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SSE FRM
TO 15 NW LNR TO 35 NW OSH TO 30 WNW MBL.
..MOORE..07/09/26
ATTN...WFO...ARX...MPX...GRB...MKX...
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 471
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
IAC037-043-065-067-090240-
IA
. IOWA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CHICKASAW CLAYTON FAYETTE
FLOYD
WIC015-021-025-027-039-043-047-049-071-077-089-091-111-117-131-
137-139-090240-
WI
. WISCONSIN COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CALUMET COLUMBIA DANE
DODGE FOND DU LAC GRANT
GREEN LAKE IOWA MANITOWOC
MARQUETTE OZAUKEE PEPIN
SAUK SHEBOYGAN WASHINGTON
WAUSHARA WINNEBAGO
LMZ543-567-643-669-090240-
Read more
MD 1551 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 472... FOR PARTS OF EASTERN CO INTO SOUTHWEST NE/NORTHWEST KS
Mesoscale Discussion 1551
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0752 PM CDT Wed Jul 08 2026
Areas affected...Parts of eastern CO into southwest NE/northwest KS
Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 472...
Valid 090052Z - 090215Z
The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 472
continues.
SUMMARY...A severe-wind threat may spread eastward through the
evening. Downstream WW issuance is possible.
DISCUSSION...As of 0045 UTC, convection is relatively disorganized
across northeast CO, though there has been some tendency for
expanding outflow and a transition to more of a cluster or linear
mode. As this convection spreads eastward, it will encounter richer
low-level moisture and stronger instability (with MLCAPE increasing
above 2000 J/kg), but there will also be a tendency for increasing
CINH with the onset of nocturnal cooling. If a sufficiently robust
cold pool can evolve this evening, then a storm cluster and possibly
a small MCS may be able to overcome the near-surface stability and
propagate eastward through the evening, with a threat for at least
localized severe gusts (potentially near/above 75 mph due to
favorable lapse rates and DCAPE). Moist, low-level easterly flow
impinging upon the eastward-moving outflow renders this scenario
plausible, and downstream watch issuance is possible as convection
approaches the eastern extent of WW 472.
..Dean/Thompson.. 07/09/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...GID...LBF...DDC...GLD...BOU...
LAT...LON 38600124 38650242 38710325 38950357 39600364 40240352
40810315 40940172 40970109 40900072 40780049 40520027
40070016 39680022 39240035 38990052 38600124
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN
Read more
MD 1550 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 473... FOR EASTERN NEBRASKA INTO WESTERN IOWA
Mesoscale Discussion 1550
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0725 PM CDT Wed Jul 08 2026
Areas affected...Eastern Nebraska into western Iowa
Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 473...
Valid 090025Z - 090230Z
The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 473
continues.
SUMMARY...A transition from semi-discrete supercells to a linear
storm mode has occurred and will promote an increase in severe winds
downstream into eastern Nebraska and western Iowa.
DISCUSSION...Over the past hour, KGID and KOAX imagery has shown a
convective mode transition from predominately
semi-discrete/clustered supercells to a linear band. Additionally,
convective development continues to develop west/southwestward along
a frontal boundary, and will likely merge with the developing band
within the next hour or so. This activity will continue to propagate
into the best regional thermodynamic environment, which features
MLCAPE near 2500 J/kg and low-level lapse rates are near 7.5 C/km.
This thermodynamic will favor further updraft development and cold
pool development, especially considering adequate deep-layer bulk
shear in place across the warm sector (the KOAX VWP continues to
sample 0-6 km bulk shear values of around 30 knots). Consequently,
some uptick in severe wind potential appears probable in the next
couple of hours across eastern NE and possibly into western IA. The
wind threat may be modulated to some degree by weak low-level winds
sampled by the KOAX VWP, which may favor outflow-dominant
convection. However, embedded swaths of severe winds behind the
outflow will still be possible.
..Moore.. 07/09/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...EAX...OAX...GID...
LAT...LON 40679823 41019828 41559760 41739717 41909582 41689541
41309528 40989531 40729542 40499564 40419596 40279659
40679823
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN
Read more
SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0800 PM CDT Wed Jul 08 2026
Valid 090100Z - 091200Z
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF
THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE MID MISSOURI AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEYS...
...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms with severe wind gusts and hail will be possible this
evening from parts of the central Plains into the mid Missouri and
upper Mississippi Valleys. Isolated severe gusts may also occur in
parts of the northern High Plains, in eastern North Carolina, and in
southeast Arizona.
...Central Plains/Mid Missouri and Upper Mississippi Valleys...
At mid-levels, a subtle shortwave trough is evident on water vapor
imagery over the central High Plains. Ahead of this feature, a moist
airmass is located from the central Plains into upper Mississippi
Valley, where surface dewpoints range from the 60s F west to the
lower to mid 70s F east. A front is located from southern Nebraska
east-northeastward into central and northeast Iowa, where low-level
convergence is maximized and scattered strong to severe
thunderstorms are ongoing. Ahead of the front, the RAP has an axis
of moderate instability with MLCAPE from 2000 to 3500 J/kg. The
instability, combined with moderate deep-layer shear and steep low
to mid-level lapse rates, will support a threat for severe wind
gusts and hail. The threat will be concentrated along and just ahead
of the more intense short line segments.
Further west into the central High Plains, a surface trough is
located from western Kansas extending northwestward into southwest
Nebraska. Low-level convergence is maximized further west into
eastern Colorado and southeast Wyoming, where an outflow boundary is
located and a broken line segment is ongoing. Ahead of the storms,
winds are backed to the east and surface dewpoints are in the mid to
upper 50s F. This is contributing to moderate instability. In
addition, the WSR-88D VWP at Denver has 40 knots of 0-6 km shear,
suggesting that supercells and organized line segments will be
possible. The RAP also shows 0-3 km lapse rates exceeding 7.5 C/km.
This environment will support a potential for severe wind gusts this
evening. A swath of wind damage will be possible across eastern
Colorado, northwest Kansas and southern Nebraska, once a more
sustained cold pool becomes established.
...Northern High Plains/Intermountain West...
A mid-level shortwave ridge will move through the northern High
Plains this evening. Beneath the ridge, a pocket of moderate
instability is located across central and northeast Montana where
the RAP has MLCAPE in the 2000 to 3500 J/kg range. To the southwest
of the instability max, thunderstorms are developing in the higher
terrain of central Montana. These storms will move eastward into the
stronger instability. Moderate deep-layer shear and steep mid-level
lapse rates will support an isolated threat for severe wind gusts.
...Eastern North Carolina...
A very moist airmass is located over eastern North Carolina, where
surface dewpoints are in the lower to mid 70s F, and the RAP has a
pocket of moderate instability (MLCAPE of 2000 to 3000 J/kg).
Scattered thunderstorms have developed near this pocket of
instability. Low-level lapse rates will remain steep for a couple
more hours suggesting potential for isolated severe gusts.
...Southeast Arizona...
The latest RAP has an south-to-north axis of instability analyzed
across southeast Arizona. Near this axis, low-level convergence is
maximized and 0-3 km lapse rates are very steep. Thunderstorms that
develop near this axis of instability may produce a few severe wind
gusts early this evening.
..Broyles.. 07/09/2026
Read more
SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0502 PM CDT Wed Jul 08 2026
Valid 101200Z - 161200Z
...Synopsis...
The extended forecast period exhibits a critical fire weather
pattern for portions of the Intermountain West with thunderstorms
earlier in the week followed by dry and breezy conditions,
generating a favorable environment for the emergence of possible
holdover lightning ignitions and growth on existing fires. Then, as
monsoonal moisture advects into southern CA and the Great Basin late
this weekend/early next week, opportunities for thunderstorms return
where dry fuels exist.
Residual moisture will push east of the Colorado Rockies and be
suppressed southward to southern Arizona and New Mexico beyond Day
3/Friday as a ridge builds across the western CONUS. Strong upper
troughing will persist over the Pacific Northwest through Day
6/Monday, meanwhile amplifying ridging and southerly flow aloft will
encourage monsoonal moisture to slowly translate northward.
Ensembles do indicate some initial dry thunderstorm potential on Day
5/Sunday into early next week across portions of southern/central
CA, the Sierra Nevada, and possibly the Bay Area where preceding hot
and dry conditions could increase fuel receptivity. Uncertainty in
the expanse of instability and northward progression of mid-level
moisture precludes dry thunderstorm probabilities for now; however,
guidance will be monitored closely in future outlook cycles.
...Days 3-5/Thursday-Sunday...
Enhanced west-southwesterly flow aloft will promote dry downslope
winds over the northern Sierra Nevada into the southern Cascades,
while an antecedent dry airmass and gusty winds overspread the
Greater Four Corners region on Day 3/Friday. 40% Critical
probabilities have been expanded to account for this threat. On Day
4/Saturday, 40% Critical probabilities were also expanded into the
Columbia Basin and southwestern MT where guidance depicts dry and
breezy conditions amid forecast ERCs approaching the 80-90th
percentile. As the trough shifts northward on Day 5/Sunday, strong
southwesterly flow aloft and lee surface troughing will maintain
fire weather concerns across the northern Sierra Nevada, southern
Cascades foothills/adjacent lower elevations, and portions of
central ID into southwestern MT. The spatial extent of drawn
probabilities may be adjusted in future outlooks as confidence
increases in the evolution of the upper pattern.
..Elizalde-Garcia.. 07/08/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
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