RSS Mesoscale Discussions from Storm Prediction Center
WW 467 SEVERE TSTM AR LA TX 062125Z - 070300Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 467
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
425 PM CDT Mon Jul 6 2026
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of
Southern Arkansas
Northern Louisiana
Northeast Texas
* Effective this Monday afternoon and evening from 425 PM until
1000 PM CDT.
* Primary threats include...
Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible
Isolated large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible
SUMMARY...Loosely organized clusters should continue to pose a
threat for mainly damaging winds this afternoon and evening as they
develop slowly east-southeastward. Occasional hail may also occur
with the strongest cores.
The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 65
statute miles north and south of a line from 15 miles northwest of
Longview TX to 15 miles south of Monroe LA. For a complete depiction
of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS
WOU7).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.
&&
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 466...
AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A
few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector
28015.
...Gleason
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WW 466 SEVERE TSTM MN ND 061840Z - 070200Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 466
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
140 PM CDT Mon Jul 6 2026
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of
Northern Minnesota
Eastern North Dakota
* Effective this Monday afternoon and evening from 140 PM until
900 PM CDT.
* Primary threats include...
Scattered damaging winds and isolated significant gusts to 75
mph likely
Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2
inches in diameter possible
A tornado or two possible
SUMMARY...Thunderstorms will intensify this afternoon along and
ahead of a cold front, and build eastward through the watch area.
Large hail and damaging winds will be possible with this activity.
The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 85
statute miles north and south of a line from 80 miles west of Fargo
ND to 35 miles south southeast of International Falls MN. For a
complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline
update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU6).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.
&&
AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 65 knots. A
few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector
27030.
...Hart
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WW 0467 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 467
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 N TYR TO
15 SSW SHV TO 15 NE SHV TO 15 S DEQ.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1528
..MOORE..07/06/26
ATTN...WFO...SHV...
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 467
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ARC027-073-091-139-070040-
AR
. ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
COLUMBIA LAFAYETTE MILLER
UNION
LAC013-015-021-027-031-043-049-059-061-069-073-081-085-111-119-
127-070040-
LA
. LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE
BIENVILLE BOSSIER CALDWELL
CLAIBORNE DE SOTO GRANT
JACKSON LA SALLE LINCOLN
NATCHITOCHES OUACHITA RED RIVER
SABINE UNION WEBSTER
WINN
Read more
WW 0466 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 466
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 NNE ABR
TO 30 SSE TVF TO 15 E INL.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1529
..SMITH..07/06/26
ATTN...WFO...DLH...FGF...
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 466
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
MNC001-005-007-021-027-029-035-051-057-061-071-087-107-111-159-
167-070040-
MN
. MINNESOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
AITKIN BECKER BELTRAMI
CASS CLAY CLEARWATER
CROW WING GRANT HUBBARD
ITASCA KOOCHICHING MAHNOMEN
NORMAN OTTER TAIL WADENA
WILKIN
NDC017-073-077-081-070040-
ND
. NORTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CASS RANSOM RICHLAND
SARGENT
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MD 1529 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 466... FOR SOUTHEAST ND...NORTHWEST INTO NORTHERN MN
Mesoscale Discussion 1529
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0602 PM CDT Mon Jul 06 2026
Areas affected...southeast ND...northwest into northern MN
Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 466...
Valid 062302Z - 070000Z
The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 466
continues.
SUMMARY...The threat for large hail and severe gusts will continue
into the early evening. The wind risk will probably increase if
additional storm mergers occur and a severe cluster evolves over
northern MN.
DISCUSSION...Visible satellite/radar mosaic composite shows a few
strong to severe storms ahead of a cold front from southeast ND into
northern MN. Surface temperatures remain warm to the southeast of
the ongoing storm activity with lower to mid 80s deg F, with
dewpoints ranging from the 70s in southeast ND to the mid 60s in
northern MN. The glancing of a Canadian mid-level shortwave trough
and associated large-scale ascent will provide continued impetus for
storm development and sustenance through the early to mid evening.
Large hail will likely focus with the stronger cells located to the
west and southwest of the northern MN clustering of storms, and also
as storms mature over southeast ND into western MN this evening.
MRMS MESH has mostly shown remotely-sensed hail diameter values 1 to
1.5 inches. However, larger hail in the 1.5 to 2 inches in diameter
range will remain possible with a supercell. The severe-wind threat
will probably begin to increase as further merging of outflow and
storm clustering evolves during the evening. Given adequately steep
0-3 km lapse rates with relatively high PW, some of the more intense
water-loaded cores may yield a risk for 60-75 mph gusts.
..Smith.. 07/06/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...DLH...FGF...ABR...
LAT...LON 46509779 47879639 48599463 48599382 48299326 47749361
46049644 45959702 46029766 46509779
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN
Read more
MD 1528 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 467... FOR NORTH-CENTRAL LOUISIANA INTO FAR EAST TEXAS
Mesoscale Discussion 1528
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0538 PM CDT Mon Jul 06 2026
Areas affected...North-central Louisiana into far east Texas
Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 467...
Valid 062238Z - 070045Z
The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 467
continues.
SUMMARY...A cluster of thunderstorms has been producing 50-65 mph
winds over the past hour. Based on the downstream environment,
similar wind speeds will be possible for the next couple of hours as
the band of storms spreads east into north-central Louisiana.
DISCUSSION...Radar imagery from KSHV shows swaths of strong
low-level velocities within a cold-pool driven band of convection.
KSHV and K4F2 (Carthage, TX) sampled 63 and 58 mph winds
(respectively) with the passage of the band. Although deep-layer
shear remains very limited in the vicinity of the band, fairly
unstable conditions downstream (MLCAPE estimated to be around 2500
J/kg) will continue to promote strong updraft development along the
leading edge of the outflow boundary. Somewhat steep low-level lapse
rates of around 8 to 8.5 C/km will continue to facilitate downdraft
accelerations and contribute to the development of additional swaths
of strong to severe winds. Based on the downstream environment, peak
wind gusts will most likely remain in the 50-70 mph range.
A weak/shallow cold pool associated with diminishing convection
across north-central LA may delineate the eastern edge of where
these peak gusts may occur, but warmer temperatures to the southeast
and better alignment of the cold pool with the deep-layer wind shear
vector may promote severe gusts as far south as the southern fringe
of WW 467.
..Moore.. 07/06/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...SHV...
LAT...LON 32019470 32079428 32329386 32579370 32909369 33079345
33019257 32729240 32439239 32049246 31789254 31579271
31429302 31389346 31399390 31449433 31619459 32019470
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN
Read more
MD 1527 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR NORTHEAST SD...WEST-CENTRAL INTO CENTRAL MN
Mesoscale Discussion 1527
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0510 PM CDT Mon Jul 06 2026
Areas affected...northeast SD...west-central into central MN
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible
Valid 062210Z - 070045Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent
SUMMARY...Strong to severe thunderstorm development will become
increasingly possible with time and perhaps this begins as early as
6pm-8pm CDT. Isolated to scattered large hail and severe gusts are
possible with the stronger storms through late evening.
DISCUSSION...Visible-satellite imagery shows partly cloudy skies
with a thin cirrus shield located to the southeast of an approaching
front that is currently analyzed over southeast ND. Surface
observations over eastern SD and west-central MN show temperatures
in the upper 80s with lower 70s deg F dewpoints. The 20z model run
of the RAP seems adequately representative of the surface conditions
and it shows 4000 J/kg MLCAPE with PW in excess of 1.8 inches.
Fairly weak southerly low-level flow veers to westerly and 20-kt in
the 500-300 mb layer and this is supporting around 25-kt effective
shear. Short-term model guidance continues to suggest storms will
eventually develop over the southern part of Severe Thunderstorm
Watch #466 near the ND-SD-MN border region early this evening.
Additional storms are possible over northeast SD into west-central
MN this evening. Contingent on storm development occurring, it
seems plausible at least an isolated to perhaps scattered
severe-storm risk will develop beginning this evening. It remains
unclear regarding storm evolution and the need for a severe
thunderstorm watch due in part to storm coverage and propensity for
severe hail/wind, but mesoscale conditions will continue to be
monitored.
..Smith/Gleason.. 07/06/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...MPX...FGF...FSD...ABR...
LAT...LON 45149869 45539856 45889824 46179517 46059461 45809443
45469442 45059477 44649616 44399803 44679854 45149869
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN
Read more
MD 1526 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA INTO EASTERN OHIO
Mesoscale Discussion 1526
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0458 PM CDT Mon Jul 06 2026
Areas affected...Central Pennsylvania into eastern Ohio
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 062158Z - 070000Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent
SUMMARY...Thunderstorm coverage may increase in the coming hours as
boundaries begin to collide, and the convective environment should
support a few strong to severe thunderstorms. However, the threat
should remain sufficiently transient and isolated to preclude watch
issuance.
DISCUSSION...Latest GOES imagery and surface observations show a
trio of surface boundaries across central to western PA and into far
eastern OH. Convection ongoing along these boundaries has largely
demonstrated pulse behavior with poor organization and short
durations - largely owing to weak flow aloft as sampled by regional
VWPs. However, some clustering has been noted across north-central
PA. Over the next several hours, boundary collisions may promote an
uptick in thunderstorm coverage across far eastern OH into western
PA where temperatures are in the upper 70s to low 80s and MLCAPE
values are near 1000-1500 J/kg. The meager deep-layer wind shear
will continue to promote mostly disorganized convection, but a few
more intense (albeit transient) thunderstorms may be capable of
producing sporadic strong to perhaps severe downburst winds (most
likely 40-60 mph). Some degree of clustering and cold pool
amalgamation appears possible, which may promote more concentrated
corridors of damaging winds, but confidence in this potential is
limited.
..Moore.. 07/06/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...CTP...LWX...PBZ...CLE...
LAT...LON 41008131 41558007 41867902 41897849 41527798 41107794
40617784 40177764 39757728 39407738 39307782 39437857
39597911 39937967 40188035 40468100 40638130 41008131
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
Read more
SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0248 PM CDT Mon Jul 06 2026
Valid 062000Z - 071200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...THE ARKLATEX...AND CENTRAL VIRGINIA
INTO EXTREME NORTHERN NORTH CAROLINA...
...SUMMARY...
Widely scattered severe thunderstorms capable of large hail and
severe wind gusts remain possible across the eastern Dakotas and
western Minnesota this afternoon and evening. Isolated to scattered
damaging wind gusts will also be possible with the strongest storms
in the southern Mid-Atlantic, Carolinas, and ArkLaTex regions.
...20Z Update...
The previous forecast (see below) remains on track, with only minor
changes made to the thunder and severe probabilities to reflect the
latest observations and numerical guidance consensus.
..Squitieri.. 07/06/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1128 AM CDT Mon Jul 06 2026/
...MN/ND...
Morning water vapory imagery shows a fast-moving shortwave trough
over southern Manitoba, with its associated surface cold front
sagging southward across ND. This front will serve as the focus for
scattered thunderstorm development by mid-afternoon from northern MN
into eastern ND. Strong heating ahead of the front and dewpoints
near 70F will yield MLCAPE over 3000 J/kg. Forecast soundings show
relatively steep mid-level lapse rates and favorable deep-layer
shear for supercells capable of large hail and severe wind gusts.
These storms may persist through the evening, spreading southward
into central MN and eastern SD.
...Mid Atlantic/Carolinas...
Another day of scattered afternoon thunderstorms will affect much of
the Mid Atlantic and Carolinas region today. Vertical shear and
steering flow is rather weak, suggesting storms will be poorly
organized. However, strong heating and steep low-level lapse rates,
combined with substantial CAPE in forecast soundings, suggest that
the strongest cells will pose the risk of damaging wind gusts over a
relatively broad area again today.
...AR/LA/OK/TX...
Strong heating and ample low-level moisture will lead to scattered
afternoon thunderstorms again today over much of AR, southeast OK,
northeast TX, and northern LA. This is near a mid-level trough
where lapse rates and mid-level temperatures are more favorable for
robust up/downdrafts capable of damaging wind gusts. Have opted for
a small SLGT risk for parts of this area where convective coverage
appears highest.
...Northern UT into WY...
Scattered high-based fast-moving thunderstorms are expected this
afternoon over northern UT, moving northeastward into western and
northern WY. The strongest of these cells will pose a risk of
damaging wind gusts.
Read more
SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0224 PM CDT Mon Jul 06 2026
Valid 081200Z - 091200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE CENTRAL
PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST...
...SUMMARY...
Clusters of strong thunderstorms with potential to produce severe
hail and wind may evolve across parts of the Upper Midwest into
central Great Plains Wednesday through Wednesday night.
...Central Plains into the Upper Midwest...
A generally zonal pattern will exist on Wednesday, with various
disturbances moving across the northern Plains to Great Lakes. One
disturbance will affect the upper MS Valley to Great Lakes during
the day, with another developing late into the northern High Plains.
Within the entire zone, midlevel westerlies will average 30-35 kt.
In the low levels, a front should stretch from near Lake Superior
into central NE, where it will stall. Widespread mid to upper 60s F
dewpoints will remain ahead of the front, contributing to 2000-3000
J/kg MUCAPE by afternoon.
Early activity is likely moving out of MN and into WI, and may
overturn some of the air mass and push the effective boundary
around. New diurnal storms are then likely during the afternoon,
roughly from WI into southern MN and IA, with wind and hail
potential.
Farther west, scattered strong to severe storms are likely across
the High Plains, where strong heating and steep lapse rates will
favor development beneath modest northwest flow aloft. Moisture and
instability look sufficient, but not overlay strong, and will
support scattered strong to severe gusts and some hail.
..Jewell.. 07/06/2026
Read more
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0206 PM CDT Mon Jul 06 2026
Valid 071200Z - 081200Z
...Afternoon Update...
Only slight adjustments were made to the risk areas based on the
latest guidance. Notably, the Isolated Dry Thunderstorm risk area
was expanded into southern ID where a mix of wet/dry thunderstorms
will pose a risk for lightning ignitions where pockets of dry fuels
exist. Following dry thunderstorms on Day 1/Monday, dry and windy
conditions on Day 2/Tuesday may encourage possible lightning
holdovers to emerge east of the Cascades (south-central OR) into the
northern Sierra Nevada (northeast CA/northwest NV), and west-central
UT where Elevated highlights were maintained. The rest of the
forecast remains on track, see the previous discussion for more
information.
..Elizalde-Garcia.. 07/06/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0206 AM CDT Mon Jul 06 2026/
...Synopsis...
Fire weather concerns will continue to be driven by a combination of
dry thunderstorm potential as well as dry/windy conditions across
portions of the West on Tuesday. A slight eastward shift of the
upper ridge from the Four Corners into the central Rockies is
expected through Tuesday evening. This will establish a more
west/southwest flow regime across the West Coast that will be
favorable for downslope flow off the northern Sierra Nevada and
portions of the Cascades. Additionally, a plume of mid-level
moisture will continue to spread east/northeast from the western
Great Basin towards the Four Corners/central Rockies that will
promote dry thunderstorm potential across a broad area.
...Dry Thunderstorms...
Mid-level moisture spreading eastward over the next 24 hours will
impinge on a plume of steep mid-level lapse rates and dry
boundary-layer conditions currently in place across the Four Corners
and central Rockies. This should promote adequate buoyancy for weak
convection by Tuesday afternoon. PWAT values are currently forecast
to range from 0.75 inches from the northern Great Basin to around
0.5 inch across UT and western CO. Forcing for ascent driven by weak
perturbations within the mean southwesterly flow regime over the
northern Great Basin should decrease eastward into the Four Corners
were orographic ascent will yield more isolated thunderstorms. This
will likely result in a mix of wet and dry thunderstorms across the
northern Great Basin with increasingly dry thunderstorms with
east/southeastward extent. Portions of central OR were removed from
the risk area owing to the potential for wetting rainfall over the
next 24 hours. However, portions of the area may be at risk for dry
lightning if rainfall amounts are more limited than currently
anticipated.
...Cascades into the northern Sierra Nevada...
The establishment of a southwest flow regime across the Cascades and
northern Sierra Nevada will promote strengthening downslope flow
along the eastern slopes. Latest forecast guidance suggests that the
driest and windiest conditions will emerge across northeast
CA/northwest NV where sustained winds between 15-20 mph will likely
coincide with 10-15% RH minimums. Further north, cooler conditions
will result in more sparse coverage of elevated conditions, but
favored gaps will likely see 15-20 mph winds with RH values falling
into the 15-25% range by late afternoon.
...Eastern Nevada into western Utah...
Another day of dry and windy conditions is expected for Tuesday as
weak troughing across the northern Great Basin drives an uptick in
southwesterly flow across the region. Confidence in 10-15% RH
minimums is fairly high given downslope trajectories off the
southern Sierra Nevada over the preceding 24 hours, and latest
HREF/REFS guidance suggests wind speeds will likely reach 15 mph for
many locations, resulting in a few hours of sustained elevated
conditions.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0501 PM CDT Mon Jul 06 2026
Valid 081200Z - 141200Z
...Synopsis...
Overall, this week exhibits a critical fire weather pattern for
portions of the Intermountain West with hot, dry and windy
conditions followed by thunderstorms, then dry and breezy conditions
once again later in the week. An upper-level trough will move into
southwest Canada Day 3-4/Wednesday-Thursday, with zonal westerly
flow and a flattened ridge over the northern half to two-thirds of
the West. As the upper-level ridge flattens, the upper high
retrogrades off the southern California coast. A weak dry cold front
will push through the Northwest and into the Great Basin mid-week,
with moisture and above normal temperatures ahead of it. Moisture
will likely push east of the Colorado Rockies and be suppressed
southward to southern Arizona and New Mexico beyond Day 5/Friday as
a ridge builds across the western CONUS. Forecast uncertainty exists
late in the period regarding how an upper-level trough off the
Pacific Northwest coast will interact with the likely building
upper-level ridge over most of the West, especially the
Intermountain West Day 6/Saturday - Day 8/Monday.
...Days 3-4/Wednesday-Thursday...
Isolated to scattered mixed wet/dry thunderstorms remain likely
across portions of the northern/eastern Great Basin into the Four
Corners on Day 3/Wednesday. The 10% area was expanded into southern
ID where a mix of wet/dry thunderstorms may overlap pockets of dry
and receptive fuels. A 40% Critical area was maintained for low RH
and gusty conditions in the Washington Cascade Gaps into the
Columbia Basin, while a more expansive 40% Critical was introduced
across much of the Great Basin into northern AZ. Dry and breezy
conditions continue on Day 4/Thursday across the southern Great
Basin into the Four Corners. Following several days of mixed wet/dry
thunderstorms, these conditions could promote the emergence of any
holdover lightning ignitions.
...Day 5-6/Friday-Saturday...
An upper-level ridge will build across the western-central CONUS
later this week, amplifying through the weekend. Meanwhile, upper
troughing should persist over the Pacific Northwest, further
enhancing southwesterly flow aloft and dry downslope flow over the
northern Sierra Nevada into the southern Cascades. 40% Critical
probabilities were introduced on both days where guidance depicts
dry and windy conditions atop dry fuels. The spatial extent of drawn
probabilities may be adjusted in future outlooks as extended
guidance becomes better resolved.
..Elizalde-Garcia.. 07/06/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
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