RSS Mesoscale Discussions from Storm Prediction Center
WW 206 SEVERE TSTM OK TX 160020Z - 160400Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 206
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
720 PM CDT Fri May 15 2026
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of
Western into Southwestern Oklahoma
Western North Texas
* Effective this Friday evening from 720 PM until 1100 PM CDT.
* Primary threats include...
Scattered damaging winds and isolated significant gusts to 75
mph possible
Isolated large hail events to 1 inch in diameter possible
SUMMARY...Several clusters of thunderstorms will likely continue to
pose a risk for severe gusts (60-75 mph) through the mid evening as
the storms move eastward into a slightly more moist airmass. An
instance or two of large hail may accompany the stronger cores over
west-central Oklahoma this evening.
The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 50
statute miles east and west of a line from 70 miles northeast of
Clinton OK to 65 miles west southwest of Wichita Falls TX. For a
complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline
update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU6).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.
&&
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 204...WW 205...
AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
1 inch. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 65 knots. A few
cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 400. Mean storm motion vector
27020.
...Smith
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WW 205 SEVERE TSTM IA MN NE SD 152215Z - 160600Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 205
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
515 PM CDT Fri May 15 2026
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of
Western into Central and Northern Iowa
Southern Minnesota
Eastern Nebraska
Far Southeast South Dakota
* Effective this Friday afternoon and Saturday morning from 515
PM until 100 AM CDT.
* Primary threats include...
Scattered damaging winds and isolated significant gusts to 80
mph likely
Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 3.5
inches in diameter likely
A tornado or two possible
SUMMARY...Thunderstorms are forecast to develop and intensify early
this evening. Supercells capable of very large hail are expected
initially (diameters between 2.5 to 3.5 inches). A tornado or two
is possible later this evening. Upscale growth into one or two
bands or bowing segments is expected later this evening with severe
wind gusts becoming more prevalent. Peak gusts associated with the
thunderstorm bands will probably range 70-80 mph.
The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 95
statute miles north and south of a line from 60 miles southeast of
Rochester MN to 5 miles north of Columbus NE. For a complete
depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update
(WOUS64 KWNS WOU5).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.
&&
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 204...
AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
3.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 70 knots. A
few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 550. Mean storm motion vector
27030.
...Smith
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WW 204 SEVERE TSTM TX 152035Z - 160300Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 204
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
335 PM CDT Fri May 15 2026
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of
West and Southwest Texas
* Effective this Friday afternoon and evening from 335 PM until
1000 PM CDT.
* Primary threats include...
Scattered damaging winds likely with isolated significant gusts
to 75 mph possible
Isolated large hail events to 1 inch in diameter possible
SUMMARY...High-based thunderstorms will develop through late
afternoon with an increasing potential for severe-caliber wind
gusts/downbursts, and possibly some hail.
The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 60
statute miles east and west of a line from 40 miles north northeast
of Plainview TX to 65 miles southeast of Fort Stockton TX. For a
complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline
update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU4).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.
&&
AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
1 inch. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 65 knots. A few
cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector
27025.
...Guyer
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WW 0206 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0206 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET
Read more
WW 0205 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 205
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 S OFK TO
20 E OFK TO 25 W SUX TO 20 ENE YKN.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0730
..MEAD..05/16/26
ATTN...WFO...DMX...ARX...FSD...OAX...MPX...
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 205
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
IAC001-003-005-009-013-015-017-021-023-025-027-029-033-035-037-
039-041-043-047-049-059-063-065-067-069-071-073-075-077-079-081-
083-085-089-091-093-099-109-117-119-121-123-125-127-129-131-133-
135-137-141-143-145-147-149-151-153-155-157-161-165-167-169-171-
173-175-179-181-187-189-191-193-195-197-160140-
IA
. IOWA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ADAIR ADAMS ALLAMAKEE
AUDUBON BLACK HAWK BOONE
BREMER BUENA VISTA BUTLER
CALHOUN CARROLL CASS
CERRO GORDO CHEROKEE CHICKASAW
CLARKE CLAY CLAYTON
CRAWFORD DALLAS DICKINSON
EMMET FAYETTE FLOYD
FRANKLIN FREMONT GREENE
GRUNDY GUTHRIE HAMILTON
HANCOCK HARDIN HARRISON
HOWARD HUMBOLDT IDA
JASPER KOSSUTH LUCAS
LYON MADISON MAHASKA
Read more
WW 0204 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 204
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 ESE HOB
TO 45 NNW BGS TO 10 NNW CDS.
..SQUITIERI..05/16/26
ATTN...WFO...MAF...LUB...SJT...
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 204
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
TXC003-033-075-101-103-105-107-115-125-135-151-169-173-207-227-
235-253-263-269-317-329-335-345-371-383-415-431-433-443-447-461-
160140-
TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ANDREWS BORDEN CHILDRESS
COTTLE CRANE CROCKETT
CROSBY DAWSON DICKENS
ECTOR FISHER GARZA
GLASSCOCK HASKELL HOWARD
IRION JONES KENT
KING MARTIN MIDLAND
MITCHELL MOTLEY PECOS
REAGAN SCURRY STERLING
STONEWALL TERRELL THROCKMORTON
UPTON
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
Read more
MD 0730 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 205... FOR EASTERN NEBRASKA INTO WESTERN AND NORTHERN IOWA AND SOUTHERN MINNESOTA
Mesoscale Discussion 0730
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0729 PM CDT Fri May 15 2026
Areas affected...eastern Nebraska into western and northern Iowa and
southern Minnesota
Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 205...
Valid 160029Z - 160230Z
The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 205
continues.
SUMMARY...The potential for large hail up to 2.0-2.5" will continue
for the next few hours. With time, the potential for more widespread
damaging winds is expected to increase as thunderstorms consolidate
into a mesoscale convective system. A small temporal window for a
tornado or two may develop prior to that transition across portions
of north-central into northeast Iowa.
DISCUSSION...Semi-discrete to clustering storm modes (including
supercell structures) are being observed as of 00:25 UTC (7:25 PM
CDT) across portions of northwest and north-central IA into southern
MN, with a separate thunderstorm cluster observed over southwest IA.
Large hail up to 1.75" has been observed with the ongoing storms
across northwest and north-central IA, with potentially a greater
damaging wind threat evolving with the southwest IA storm cluster,
where a 74 mph wind gust was recently received.
Latest objective analysis suggests the air mass across eastern NE
into western and central IA remains moderately unstable with
estimated MLCAPE ranging from around 1000 J/kg along the MN-IA
border to as high as 2500 J/kg across southwest IA. The current KOAX
and KDMX VWPs indicate a vertically veering wind profile with 45-50
kt of effective bulk shear. This parameter space will continue to
favor supercell storm modes with an attendant threat for hail up to
2.0-2.5" with any more discrete storms. Otherwise, the continued
increase in storm coverage noted west through north of Fort Dodge,
and from Mason City to the Albert Lea vicinity is expected to
eventually lead to an organized cold pool with a resultant increase
in damaging wind potential. A separate, more organized wind threat
(70-80 mph wind gusts) may also evolve from the ongoing storm
cluster in southwest IA east through the I-80 corridor, south of Des
Moines between 01-02z (8-9 PM CDT).
Finally, a small spatiotemporal window for a tornado or two may
evolve across portions of north-central into northeast IA in the
01-02z (8-9 PM CDT) timeframe. This threat will be conditional on
the existence of surface-based storm modes that can overcome the
increasing convective inhibition and realize the rapidly
strengthening low-level shear.
..Mead/Smith.. 05/16/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...DVN...ARX...MPX...DMX...EAX...FSD...OAX...GID...
LAT...LON 40719732 41549728 42309724 42999699 43819586 43859433
44209283 44039170 43229115 42809124 42159230 41589269
41189336 40859410 40569448 40359738 40719732
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-110 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN
Read more
SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0758 PM CDT Fri May 15 2026
Valid 160100Z - 161200Z
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF
IOWA INTO FAR SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN...
...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms capable of producing severe gusts and large
hail remain likely this evening centered over Iowa. Isolated to
scattered severe gusts also remain possible over a broader area from
parts of the southern High Plains to the Upper Midwest.
...IA and southern WI into northeast KS/northern MO...
Several clusters of severe storms are currently ongoing across
western into northern IA, with other cells into southeast MN. All
this is occurring near and ahead of a cold front associated with the
glancing upper wave to the north. Moderate instability has developed
as lower 60s F dewpoints spread into the area, and effective
deep-layer shear near 50 kt will continue to support organization
into an MCS as outflows aggregate. Until then, large damaging hail
will also be possible. More isolated activity also extends into far
southeast NE, with other failed attempts at initiation toward far
northern KS. The increasing southwest low-level jet this evening may
support additional development later this evening as the 00Z TOP
sounding remains moist and unstable.
For more information see mesoscale discussions #0729 and #0730.
...Western TX...western OK...southwest KS...
Scattered high-based storms continue to produce locally severe gusts
from parts of western TX into western OK. While capping will
increase this evening, a few more hours of damaging wind threat
appear likely with the activity moving into northwest TX. Additional
isolated activity may also develop anywhere from western OK into
southwest KS as moisture wraps around the surface low and lapse
rates remain steep.
..Jewell.. 05/16/2026
Read more
SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0451 PM CDT Fri May 15 2026
Valid 171200Z - 231200Z
Quasi-zonal flow will prevail across a large portion of the eastern
US beginning Day 3/Sunday. Concurrently, a pronounced mid-level
trough is forecast to dig through the Intermountain West and lift
northeast across the Plains through the week. This evolution will
establish a prolonged period of Critical fire weather potential
across parts of the Southwest and southern High Plains. Medium-range
forecast guidance indicates the synoptic pattern will deamplify by
late next week, introducing lower confidence in fire weather threats
as a cooler airmass settles over much of the CONUS. By the following
weekend, surface temperatures begin to rebound back above normal
over the far western CONUS.
...Southwest/Southern Plains...
From Day 3/Sunday through Day 4/Monday, the previously mentioned
robust mid-level trough will drive a multi-day stretch of what will
likely become Elevated to Critical fire weather conditions spanning
the Southwest into the adjacent southern Plains. Warm temperatures
and dry antecedent conditions, driven by recent upper-level ridging,
support cured fuels and have primed the region for ignitions.
West-southwesterly surface winds are progged to sustain at 20-30
mph, overlapping with minimum relative humidity values falling into
the single digits to low teens for prolonged afternoon periods.
Forecast guidance continues to highlight poor overnight moisture
recovery, with RH values largely remaining below 30% through the
entire Day 2/Saturday through Day 4/Monday period. This will extend
active burn windows well into the overnight hours. By Day 5/Tuesday,
lingering stronger-than-typical daytime winds will contribute to
another day of potential fire weather concerns over the region,
albeit less intense than on Day 3/Sunday and Day 4/Monday.
...California...
On Day 4/Monday, tightening surface gradient flow supported by the
jet stream overhead behind the deepening Great Basin trough will
produce strong and dry northerly surface winds (sustained at 15-20
mph) across the CA Central Valley. When paired with afternoon
humidity dropping into the teens, receptive fine fuels, and an
unseasonably warm/dry airmass over the preceding days, the threat
for rapid fire spread remains evident. Therefore, 40% probabilities
have been retained to highlight this fire weather risk.
..Stearns.. 05/15/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
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