RSS Mesoscale Discussions from Storm Prediction Center
No watches are valid as of Sun Nov 30 21:25:02 UTC 2025.
No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Sun Nov 30 21:25:02 UTC 2025.
SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0151 PM CST Sun Nov 30 2025
Valid 302000Z - 011200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight.
...20z Update...
No changes are needed to the D1 Convective Outlook. See previous
discussion below for more information.
..Thornton.. 11/30/2025
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1020 AM CST Sun Nov 30 2025/
...Synopsis and Discussion...
Thunderstorm potential will remain minimal today for a majority of
the CONUS, with a few exceptions. Isolated thunderstorms may occur
along/near parts of the Gulf Coast as a cold front continues to
advance offshore, with a low chance for additional elevated
thunderstorms late tonight into early Monday morning for portions of
coastal TX. Isolated thunderstorm potential will also exist mainly
this afternoon/early evening across the southern FL Peninsula/Keys,
and separately across parts of UT. Limited instability and/or shear
will preclude severe thunderstorms across all these regions.
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SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1112 AM CST Sun Nov 30 2025
Valid 011200Z - 021200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms will develop along the
Gulf Coast Monday morning through Tuesday morning. Severe
thunderstorms are not currently expected.
...Synopsis...
A surface cold front pushing into the northern Gulf today is
forecast to stall early Monday morning before gradually advancing
northward as a warm front late Monday night/early Tuesday morning
ahead of an approaching upper wave. Elevated thunderstorms are
possible beginning Monday morning within the warm advection regime
across the TX Gulf Coast into portions of the Southeast and Carolina
coast through the early morning hours Tuesday.
...FL Panhandle Coast...
Any appreciable chance for surface-based convection will likely come
during the 09-12 UTC Tuesday period as a surface low intensifies
over GA and supports inland return of mid-60 F dewpoints into the FL
Panhandle region. Despite this moisture return, poor mid-level lapse
rates will limit overall buoyancy values with most guidance
depicting surface-based lifted indices of around -1 Celsius. Strong
low-level kinematic fields in the vicinity of the intensifying low
could potentially support a severe wind/tornado threat if low-level
moistening/destabilization is sufficient for deep convection;
however, most forecast solutions suggest dewpoints above 67 F may be
required for this to occur. Getting such dewpoints inland beyond the
immediate coast prior to 12z appears improbable (25% chance) based
on recent ensemble guidance, so any severe probabilities continue to
be withheld.
..Moore.. 11/30/2025
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SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0121 PM CST Sun Nov 30 2025
Valid 021200Z - 031200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Scattered thunderstorms are expected through Tuesday across the
Southeast to the Atlantic Coastline. The risk for severe
thunderstorms currently appears limited.
...Synopsis...
A surface cyclone is forecast to intensify along the Atlantic coast
through the day Tuesday as a broad upper-level wave moves into the
eastern CONUS. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms appear probable
across parts of the Southeast and portions of the southern
Mid-Atlantic as strong synoptic-scale ascent overspreads a
marginally buoyant air mass.
...Florida Panhandle into northern Florida/southern Georgia...
An initially weak surface low should be developing across the FL
Panhandle by around 12 UTC Tuesday morning with isolated to
scattered thunderstorms ongoing within a strengthening warm
advection regime. While elevated thunderstorms will likely develop
across the broader region, a narrow surface-based warm sector may
materialize from the FL Panhandle eastward into northern FL/Southern
GA through 18 UTC. Medium-range ensemble guidance suggests SBCAPE
values may increase to 250-500 J/kg before an advancing cold front
shunts any surface-based buoyancy offshore by early/mid-afternoon.
More bullish solutions suggest that convection may be sufficiently
deep to realize the strongly sheared environment that should
manifest as the cyclone intensifies. However, the general model
consensus is that buoyancy profiles will likely remain too weak to
support robust updraft development, limiting confidence in the
potential for an appreciable severe threat. Even the typically
aggressive RRFS depicts only a weak/transient updraft/UH signal
across this region, suggesting that the overall severe threat is
limited. While risk probabilities are withheld, thermodynamic trends
will continue to be monitored given the very favorable kinematic
environment.
..Moore.. 11/30/2025
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SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1036 AM CST Sun Nov 30 2025
Valid 301700Z - 011200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
Fire-weather concerns are expected to remain negligible across the
CONUS today.
..Elliott.. 11/30/2025
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0139 AM CST Sun Nov 30 2025/
...Synopsis...
A cold post-frontal air mass will limit fire-weather concerns across
the CONUS.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
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SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1259 PM CST Sun Nov 30 2025
Valid 011200Z - 021200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
Tomorrow's (Monday) fire weather forecast remains on-track. Please
see the discussion below for additional information.
..Elliott.. 11/30/2025
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0141 AM CST Sun Nov 30 2025/
...Synopsis...
On the backside of a positively tilted midlevel trough moving
eastward across the Rockies, expansive surface high pressure will
build over the Great Basin/Intermountain West. This will result in
an enhanced offshore pressure gradient across southern CA, while a
belt of moderate midlevel northerly flow overspreads the area. These
factors will contribute to breezy/gusty east-northeasterly surface
winds amid 20-30 percent RH -- with a focus over the typical
wind-prone mountains and valleys of eastern Ventura and western Los
Angeles Counties. Locally elevated fire-weather conditions are
possible where any marginally receptive fuels are exposed to the
dry/breezy conditions.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
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