RSS Mesoscale Discussions from Storm Prediction Center
No watches are valid as of Thu Nov 20 23:37:01 UTC 2025.
MD 2216 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR OVER NORTHEAST TEXAS AND INTO FAR SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS
Mesoscale Discussion 2216
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0534 PM CST Thu Nov 20 2025
Areas affected...over northeast Texas and into far southwest
Arkansas
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 202334Z - 210200Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent
SUMMARY...A severe storm or two may affect parts of northeast Texas
and vicinity this evening. Locally damaging gusts along with hail
over 1.00" diameter may occur.
DISCUSSION...Surface analysis shows a moist air mass over eastern
TX, east of a cold front and south of a warm front which is nearly
stationary. Surface winds are generally weak across the moist sector
with little surface pressure gradient. This weakness extends up to
850 mb as well, where speeds are on the order of 20-25 kt.
While cool midlevel temperatures remain over the area, the primary
trough continues to eject northeastward from the TX Panhandle into
western OK, with strong midlevel warming to the south. East of this
wave, height tendencies are forecast to remain rather neutral.
Still, moderate mid and high level southwesterlies are resulting in
effective shear around 50 kt. These elongated hodographs
conditionally favor a few longer lived cells off the cold front.
Areas of stronger cells currently extend from Ellis County into
Limestone/Falls Counties. The Ellis County complex is near the warm
front, and may persist as it rides along that boundary, with
enhanced ascent and gusty wind potential.
..Jewell/Smith.. 11/20/2025
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...TSA...FWD...
LAT...LON 31239705 31899674 32489667 32799671 34059540 34309470
34179418 33699391 32329453 31789515 31419600 31239705
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN
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SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0159 PM CST Thu Nov 20 2025
Valid 202000Z - 211200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS TO ARKANSAS...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may occur today into this
evening across the southern Plains into Arkansas. Large hail,
damaging winds, and a tornado or two all appear possible.
...20Z Update...
No changes were made with this update. An upgrade to Slight Risk was
considered for parts of south-central into north-central TX ahead of
the northeast/southwest-oriented band of storms. Here, diurnal
heating has allowed temperatures to climb into the upper 70s to
lower 80s amid middle/upper 60s dewpoints -- resulting in a
moderately unstable warm sector. While this instability and around
50 kt of effective shear will conditionally favor embedded supercell
structures, current thinking is that deep-layer southwesterly
flow/shear parallel to the larger-scale cold pool will result in
undercutting and training of storms. Therefore, held off on an
upgrade at this time. Nevertheless, damaging gusts, sporadic large
hail, and perhaps a tornado or two will all be possible with any
longer-lived storms -- especially any that can form immediately
ahead of the convective band and related cold pool.
..Weinman.. 11/20/2025
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1031 AM CST Thu Nov 20 2025/
...Southern Plains to Arkansas...
Showers/thunderstorms remain common at late morning with widespread
cloud cover with the warm sector across most of Texas and Oklahoma.
This precedes a mid/upper-level trough currently located over
Arizona/New Mexico and far northern Mexico, which will continue to
eject northeastward toward the southern High Plains. A surface low
will gradually deepen across the south-central High Plains and
develop eastward through the period.
It still seems likely that convection and widespread cloud cover
will persist through the day, resulting in generally modest diurnal
heating and weakening mid-level lapse rates with time. While
enhanced deep-layer shear will remain across the warm sector owing
to persistent strong southwesterly mid-level flow, the potential for
organized thunderstorms downstream or in the wake of ongoing morning
convection remains uncertain, particularly in the context of
somewhat stronger low-level winds more likely to interface where
convective overturning has occurred.
Regardless, some potential for isolated supercells and/or organized
multicell clusters will exist this afternoon/evening particularly
across portions of central and possibly into parts of
North/northeast Texas. This includes isolated severe hail and
damaging winds, and a modest enlargement of low-level hodographs
could also support a tornado risk.
Farther west, some high-resolution guidance continues to show the
development of additional strong/locally severe storms across
east/southeast New Mexico into west Texas/southwest Oklahoma, in
closer proximity to the ejecting upper trough. This convection could
pose a threat of strong gusts and perhaps some hail, but it remains
uncertain as to whether sufficient instability will develop to
support anything beyond a very isolated/marginal-type severe risk.
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SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0131 PM CST Thu Nov 20 2025
Valid 221200Z - 231200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated thunderstorms are possible from the Southwest into the
southern Plains and Southeast on Saturday, though severe
thunderstorm potential appears low.
...Synopsis...
An upper-level low will translate to an open wave while impinging on
the southern High Plains, with a broad mid-level trough poised to
traverse the Eastern Seaboard on Saturday. As a result, widespread
surface high pressure will overspread much of the central and
northern CONUS, limiting thunderstorm potential for these areas.
Adequate moisture ahead of the surface cold front, along with
frontal convergence, will encourage isolated to scattered
thunderstorm development Saturday afternoon and evening across
portions of eastern TX to the Carolina coastline. A few lightning
flashes are also possible across portions of AZ into NM as cold air
aloft from the upper low coincides with synoptic ascent of a
marginally moist, unstable airmass. Low-level moisture may be
locally more robust into western TX, where surface lee troughing,
encouraged by the approaching mid-level trough, will promote
warm-air/moisture advection from the Gulf. While the moist
southeasterly flow beneath 60-80 kt southwesterly 500 mb winds will
promote strong low-level shear, modest mid-level lapse rates atop a
stable boundary layer should limit the severe threat.
..Squitieri.. 11/20/2025
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SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0120 PM CST Thu Nov 20 2025
Valid 211200Z - 221200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
No changes are needed to the D2 Fire Weather Outlook. See previous
discussion below for more info.
..Thornton.. 11/20/2025
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1255 AM CST Thu Nov 20 2025/
...Synopsis...
Fire weather concerns are not anticipated for Friday across the
country. The upper trough currently over the Southwest/northern
Mexico is forecast to weaken as it shifts east over the next 48
hours. As such, the surface wind response will remain fairly muted
across much of the southern CONUS. Westerly downslope winds will
likely develop across parts of the southern High Plains, but ongoing
showers, along with rain chances over the next 24 hours, should
moisten fuels and limit fire concerns. Elsewhere, fire weather
potential will be limited by a combination of cool temperatures,
weak winds, or rain chances.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
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SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0253 PM CST Thu Nov 20 2025
Valid 221200Z - 281200Z
Fire weather concerns will remain low during the D3-8 (Saturday -
Thursday) outlook period.
The pattern will remain progressive and active, with multiple
cool/moist trough passages producing widespread precipitation across
much of the CONUS. Over the last 24-48 hours, portions of the
Southwest into the Southern Plains have seen wetting rainfall with
totals 1-2 inches locally. Wetting rainfall chances are expected to
increase through the Southeastern US to the Mid-Atlantic through the
weekend before chances increase across the Midwest to the Northeast.
The wet and cool pattern should help with improving status of fuels
keeping fire concerns low.
..Thornton.. 11/20/2025
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
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