RSS Mesoscale Discussions from Storm Prediction Center
No watches are valid as of Mon Dec 29 16:05:02 UTC 2025.
No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Mon Dec 29 16:05:02 UTC 2025.
SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0645 AM CST Mon Dec 29 2025
Valid 291300Z - 301200Z
...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms will not occur across the contiguous United
States through tonight.
...Synopsis...
Water-vapor imagery this morning shows a trough over the Great Lakes
and much of the eastern U.S. whereas a split-flow pattern prevails
over the West. A cold front will continue south through much of the
Gulf of America and move east of the Eastern Seaboard during the
period. High pressure centered over the south-central states will
lead to cool/stable conditions over much of the Lower 48.
..Smith/Weinman.. 12/29/2025
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SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1000 AM CST Mon Dec 29 2025
Valid 291630Z - 301200Z
...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are not forecast through tonight.
...Synopsis and Discussion...
An amplified upper trough/low with an intense mid-level jet will
continue advancing east-northeastward over Ontario/Quebec and the
eastern CONUS today. A related strong surface cold front will also
move east-southeastward across the Southeast and Gulf through the
period. With negligible instability forecast over land ahead of the
front, thunderstorm probabilities still appear less than 10%.
..Gleason/Wendt.. 12/29/2025
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SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0948 AM CST Mon Dec 29 2025
Valid 291700Z - 301200Z
Minor modifications were made based on the latest observations and
high-resolution forecast guidance. Light showers along the cold
front are moving towards the coast from the Piedmont, but dry and
windy conditions are filtering in behind the front. Combining and
expanding the Elevated areas was considered, but recent and expected
precipitation today precluded this change. However, locally elevated
conditions are possible from south/east Texas through south Alabama
in a dry, breezy post-frontal airmass.
..Nauslar.. 12/29/2025
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0139 AM CST Mon Dec 29 2025/
...Synopsis...
A pronounced mid-level trough will continue to deepen while ejecting
into the Atlantic, supporting a deep northwesterly flow regime
across the central U.S. as a surface cold front surges offshore
today. The post cold-frontal regime across portions of the Southeast
into the Carolinas will promote 15 mph sustained west-northwesterly
surface winds amid 25-25 percent RH (perhaps locally lower in some
spots). Elevated highlights are warranted given dry fuels that have
not experienced rainfall in 1-2 weeks.
Similarly, dry north-northwesterly surface flow will prevail over
the Plains given the aforementioned deep-layer northwesterly flow
regime. Wind speeds will be weaker compared to previous days, with
cooler temperatures also expected. Nonetheless, widespread 15+ mph
sustained north-northwesterly surface winds amid 15-20 percent RH
and drying fuels necessitates Elevated highlights.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
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