RSS Mesoscale Discussions from Storm Prediction Center
No watches are valid as of Fri Mar 27 22:03:02 UTC 2026.
No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Fri Mar 27 22:03:02 UTC 2026.
SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0217 PM CDT Fri Mar 27 2026
Valid 272000Z - 281200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated thunderstorms are expected today over parts of the
Carolinas and southern Appalachians, but no severe threat is
forecast.
Only minor changes have been made to the ongoing forecast - to
remove 10% thunder probabilities from parts of WV/KY. Isolated
lightning flashes in northwest AR are expected to remain below 10%
coverage.
..Hart.. 03/27/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1115 AM CDT Fri Mar 27 2026/
...Synopsis...
A belt of strong cyclonic mid-level flow will extend from the
northern Plains through the OH Valley and into the Northeast through
tonight. A mid-level anticyclone will remain centered over the
Chihuahua-Texas border as heights gradually lower as troughing
pivots slowly east across the East. The southern periphery of
stronger westerly mid and high-level flow will glance NC later
today.
In the low levels, a cold front analyzed over the Cumberland Gap
eastward to the Delmarva, will push southeast through the Carolinas
by late tonight. Strong heating ahead of the boundary and dewpoints
in the 55-60 deg F range will contribute to weak buoyancy and
steepened low-level lapse rates by mid afternoon. Isolated to
widely scattered thunderstorms are forecast to develop near the
front late this afternoon into the early evening. Forecast
soundings show only weak surface to 2-km flow (at or below 10-15 kt)
across the Carolina Piedmont. The weaker boundary layer flow and
weak buoyancy (few hundred J/kg SBCAPE) will likely limit overall
storm intensity. Although a strong gust or two is possible (35-50
mph), the propensity for an appreciable wind-damage risk still
appears sufficiently low at this time to preclude a categorical-risk
highlight over the Carolina Piedmont.
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SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0211 PM CDT Fri Mar 27 2026
Valid 291200Z - 301200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated thunderstorms are possible across the southern Florida
Peninsula and portions of southern Arizona/southwest New Mexico
Sunday afternoon and evening. Severe thunderstorms are not expected.
...Synopsis...
Quasi-zonal flow is forecast across the CONUS on Sunday while a
mostly dry and stable boundary layer will persist, limiting
thunderstorm potential. The exception will be across portions of the
FL Peninsula and Keys. A seasonally moist airmass will persist near
a decaying frontal boundary. Strong heating will support weak
destabilization and isolated thunderstorms may develop along sea
breeze interactions or the residual frontal boundary. A few
thunderstorms also will be possible across the far southern
AZ/southwest NM vicinity where steep midlevel lapse rates atop
warm/moist advection in lower levels will support sufficient
destabilization. A weak shortwave impulse will migrate across the
region during the late afternoon/evening and could provide enough
ascent for a few thunderstorms. Severe storms are not expected.
..Leitman.. 03/27/2026
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SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0255 PM CDT Fri Mar 27 2026
Valid 281200Z - 291200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTHEASTERN WYOMING...
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN
GEORGIA...SOUTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA AND FL PANHANDLE...
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN
GREAT PLAINS...
...Southeastern Wyoming...
A more favorable downslope regime will emerge across portions of WY
as dry and breezy conditions as an upper-level ridge builds over the
Intermountain West and lee troughing develops across the northern
High Plains under modest westerly flow aloft. A corridor of 15-25
mph sustained winds with higher gusts, relative humidity in falling
into the 10-15% range by mid-afternoon and return of above normal
temperatures will support critical fire weather conditions, with
introduction of Critical Highlights across southeastern WY
warranted.
...Southeast...
An expansive fire weather threat is still anticipated across much of
the Southeast under a dry, post frontal regime. A swath of enhanced
northeast winds of 15-20 mph and relative humidity as low as 20%
will be most likely across portions of SC into southern GA. Extended
Critical Highlights southwestward into northern FL and adjacent
Elevated Highlights southward into the Gulf Coast based on latest
model guidance.
...Southern Great Basin and Arizona Strip...
A mid-level short wave within a building ridge will support dry and
breezy southwest flow across portions of the southern Great Basin
and northwestern AZ. Southwest winds of 15-25 mph along with
relative humidity below 10% in lower elevations will bring elevated
fire weather conditions to this region amid an increasingly dry
fuelscape. Thus, Elevated Highlights have been added to portions of
far southeastern NV, southwestern UT and northwestern AZ.
..Williams.. 03/27/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0250 AM CDT Fri Mar 27 2026/
...Synopsis...
Surface high pressure will shift eastward from the Midwest to the
East Coast in the wake of a robust mid-level trough moving across
the Northeast on D2/Saturday. Simultaneously, enhanced zonal,
mid-level flow across the northern/central Rockies will promote lee
troughing over the High Plains, with a tightened pressure gradient
and strong low-level jet developing between the surface high and lee
troughing.
...Central Great Plains...
The aforementioned surface pressure gradient and low-level jet will
yield strong, sustained southerly flow of 20-30 mph across much of
the central Great Plains. With receptive fuels in place and RH
values forecast to fall to 15-20%, critical fire weather conditions
are forecast Saturday afternoon from portions of the Oklahoma
Panhandle northeastward to southwestern Minnesota, western Iowa, and
southeastern South Dakota. Boundary layer mixing and strong 850 mb
flow of 30-40+ kts will also support the potential for periodic wind
gusts of 35-45 mph. Elevated fire weather conditions are expected
across adjacent areas of the central Great Plains where sustained
southerly surface winds of 15-25 mph are forecast to overlap reduced
RH values of 20-25%, except for portions of central/eastern Kansas
that saw more appreciable rainfall Thursday evening.
...Portions of the central High Plains...
Modest zonal, mid-level flow across the central/northern Rockies
will favor dry, downslope winds in the lee of the southern and
central Rockies during the afternoon on Saturday. Sustained westerly
surface winds of 15-20 mph are forecast to overlap very low RH of
10-15% across portions of southern Wyoming and southeastern
Colorado. With receptive fuels in place across these regions, a
period of elevated fire weather conditions is expected Saturday
afternoon. Localized critical conditions will also be possible
across portions of southeastern Wyoming, particularly in the lee of
the Laramie Range, where modest mid-level flow (30-40 kts around
600-700 mb) may support occasional gusts of 35-45 mph.
...Portions of the Southeast...
Dry and breezy conditions are forecast across much of the
southeastern US along the southern periphery of the surface high.
Sustained northeasterly surface winds of 10-15 mph overlapping
reduced RH of 25-35% amid dry, antecedent conditions will support a
widespread area of elevated fire weather concerns. Some guidance
indicates RH values may fall to as low as ~20% across portions of
this region. Critical highlights have been added to portions of
southeastern Georgia and southern South Carolina where confidence is
highest in a period of overlap between sustained winds of 15-20 mph
and minimum RH values of 20-25% (locally lower). The potential for
expansion of this critical area will be monitored in future
outlooks.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
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SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0456 PM CDT Fri Mar 27 2026
Valid 291200Z - 041200Z
...Synopsis...
An upper-level ridge begins to slide eastward into the central U.S.
early next week while a mid-level trough moves into the Pacific
Northwest. A split jet flow emerges across the western U.S. by Day
5/Tuesday with more a more pronounced and progressive wave pattern
persisting across the northern CONUS through late next week. The
modest westerly flow aloft under the ridge and lee surface troughing
across the northern High Plains will support a fire weather threat
across WY into the NE Panhandle on Days 3-4/Sunday-Monday as strong
west winds align with dry fuels, above normal temperatures and low
relative humidity. Farther south, mid to upper-level Pacific
moisture ahead of an approaching upper trough and daytime
instability over higher terrain may support some thunderstorm
development and ignition potential across portions of AZ and NM on
Day 3-4/Sunday-Monday. Fire weather concerns shift eastward into the
Southern Plains on Day 5/Monday with the arrival of a more
pronounced short wave embedded within the weaker, southern jet
stream. Fire weather concerns should wane for the latter part of
next week across the West as another trough enters the Northwest
bringing cooler temperatures and precipitation to portions of
Intermountain West.
...Day 3-4/Sunday-Monday...
...Wyoming/Central High Plains and Southern Great Basin...
Dry and breezy conditions under deep layer westerly flow amid
abnormally warm temperatures, low RH and dry fuels should support a
fire weather threat across southern WY into the central High Plains
on Day 3/Sunday, where a 40% critical probability area remains. 40%
probabilities were also added to portions of the southern Great
Basin across far southeastern NV, southwestern UT and northwestern
AZ ahead of an embedded weak mid-level short wave where stronger
southwest winds, low RH and abnormally dry fuels align.
...Arizona and New Mexico...
The threat of dry thunderstorms has diminished particularly on
Sunday across southwestern NM and southeastern AZ based on latest
model guidance consensus, with injection of mid/upper Pacific
moisture within broader southwest flow delayed until Sunday night
into Monday. A more favorable thunderstorm environment evolves for
Monday across the Southwest, with a few lightning ignitions
possible, mainly across the higher terrain and higher fuel
landscapes of eastern AZ and western NM. Fuels are unusually dry
within a virtually snow free landscape that could be receptive to
ignitions.
...Day 5/Tuesday - Southern Plains...
Increasing west-southwesterly flow within the southern, subtropical
jet arrives into the Southwest and Southern Plains by Day 5/Tuesday
as a cold front trails southwestward into the region from a strong
surface across the Great Lakes. This will support a dry downslope
regime behind a dry line across portions of eastern NM and the TX
Panhandle. Breezy west winds, low RH and dry fuels supports at least
an elevated fire weather threat to the area, with an eventual wind
shift from a southward advancing cold front that could have further
impacts on existing or new wildfires. Thus 40% critical
probabilities remain for portions of the Southern Plains.
..Williams.. 03/27/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
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