RSS Mesoscale Discussions from Storm Prediction Center
WW 12 SEVERE TSTM AR OK TX 042240Z - 050500Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 12
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
440 PM CST Wed Mar 4 2026
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of
Western Arkansas
Southeast Oklahoma
North Central Texas
* Effective this Wednesday afternoon and evening from 440 PM
until 1100 PM CST.
* Primary threats include...
Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely
Scattered large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter likely
A tornado or two possible
SUMMARY...Thunderstorms are increasing in coverage and intensity
from north-central Texas into southern Oklahoma. These storms will
spread northeastward across the watch area during the evening, with
a risk of large hail and locally damaging wind gusts.
The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 60
statute miles north and south of a line from 25 miles southwest of
Fort Worth TX to 45 miles east southeast of Fayetteville AR. For a
complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline
update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU2).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.
&&
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 11...
AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A
few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector
23030.
...Hart
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WW 11 SEVERE TSTM AR IL IN KY MO 042035Z - 050300Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 11
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
235 PM CST Wed Mar 4 2026
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of
Northern Arkansas
Southern Illinois
Southwest Indiana
Western Kentucky
Southern Missouri
* Effective this Wednesday afternoon and evening from 235 PM
until 900 PM CST.
* Primary threats include...
Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2
inches in diameter possible
Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible
A tornado or two possible
SUMMARY...Storms are expected to further develop and intensify
regionally as additional destabilization occurs. This will include
clusters and a few supercells with hail and wind as the primary
hazards, although some tornado potential will exist.
The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 45
statute miles north and south of a line from 30 miles south
southwest of Harrison AR to 10 miles east northeast of Evansville
IN. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch
outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU1).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.
&&
AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A
few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 450. Mean storm motion vector
26030.
...Guyer
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WW 0012 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 12
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 WNW MLC
TO 25 WSW MLC TO 25 N DUA TO 10 WNW DUA TO 15 NW GYI TO 30 SSW
ADM.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0135
..CHALMERS..03/05/26
ATTN...WFO...TSA...SHV...LZK...OUN...FWD...
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 12
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ARC007-015-033-047-061-083-087-113-127-131-133-143-149-050240-
AR
. ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BENTON CARROLL CRAWFORD
FRANKLIN HOWARD LOGAN
MADISON POLK SCOTT
SEBASTIAN SEVIER WASHINGTON
YELL
OKC001-005-013-023-061-077-079-089-121-127-135-050240-
OK
. OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ADAIR ATOKA BRYAN
CHOCTAW HASKELL LATIMER
LE FLORE MCCURTAIN PITTSBURG
PUSHMATAHA SEQUOYAH
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WW 0011 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 11
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SSE POF
TO 25 SSW POF TO 30 NNW ARG TO 30 SE UNO TO 30 NNW BVX TO 30 W
BVX TO 20 E RUE.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0134
..CHALMERS..03/05/26
ATTN...WFO...LZK...PAH...SGF...LSX...
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 11
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ARC005-009-049-065-071-089-101-115-129-137-141-050140-
AR
. ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BAXTER BOONE FULTON
IZARD JOHNSON MARION
NEWTON POPE SEARCY
STONE VAN BUREN
ILC003-047-055-059-065-069-077-081-087-127-145-151-153-165-181-
185-191-193-199-050140-
IL
. ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ALEXANDER EDWARDS FRANKLIN
GALLATIN HAMILTON HARDIN
JACKSON JEFFERSON JOHNSON
MASSAC PERRY POPE
PULASKI SALINE UNION
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MD 0135 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 12... FOR NORTH TX INTO EASTERN OK AND WESTERN AR
Mesoscale Discussion 0135
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0643 PM CST Wed Mar 04 2026
Areas affected...North TX into eastern OK and western AR
Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 12...
Valid 050043Z - 050245Z
The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 12
continues.
SUMMARY...The threat for hail, locally damaging wind, and possibly a
tornado will continue through mid evening.
DISCUSSION...Scattered storms are ongoing from north TX into eastern
OK early this evening, with occasional storm organization and
midlevel rotation noted with cells near the DFW Metroplex, and also
in the vicinity of a cold front between McAlester, OK and Fort
Smith, AR. Effective shear of 30-40 kt and MLCAPE of 1500-2000 J/kg
(as sampled by the 00Z FWD sounding) will continue to support
occasional supercells across the region this evening, with an
increasing coverage of storms expected in response to an approaching
midlevel shortwave trough and modest strengthening of the low-level
jet.
Cell interactions may tend to limit the longevity of any particular
cell, though slow storm motions and a tendency for backbuilding near
a composite outflow across north TX may continue to support a nearly
stationary storm cluster near the eastern DFW Metroplex. Farther
north, occasional splitting supercells may continue as convection
spreads from southeast OK into western AR.
Some hail and localized damaging-wind threat will continue to
accompany any sustained supercells this evening. A brief tornado
cannot be ruled out, especially if any surface-based supercells can
persist later into the evening, when a modest strengthening of
low-level shear/SRH is expected. However, there may continue to be a
tendency for storms to be undercut by outflow or the slow-moving
cold front.
..Dean.. 03/05/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...TSA...FWD...OUN...SJT...
LAT...LON 32499605 32199670 31579792 31819877 34209661 35609542
36119472 36299433 36109357 34859396 33789470 32909565
32499605
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN
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SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0700 PM CST Wed Mar 04 2026
Valid 050100Z - 051200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTHERN
TEXAS ACROSS THE OZARKS AND TOWARD THE MID MISSISSIPPI AND LOWER
OHIO VALLEYS...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms remain possible through
tonight from northern Texas and eastern Oklahoma to the Ozarks and
Lower Ohio Valley.
...Discussion...
Scattered storms persist this evening from north-central TX across
eastern OK, with a few from the AR/MO border into southern IN. This
is occurring along a stationary front, with the strongest
instability over TX. The 00Z FWD sounding shows steep lapse rates
through the entire profile, but with a somewhat jumbled wind profile
depicting veer/back/veer/back with height. Still, cool temperatures
aloft and effective shear over 30 kt should continue to support
periodic hail cores or localized downbursts this evening. Farther
north, storms are a bit more disorganized along the boundary, with a
bit weaker instability but also stronger deep-layer shear in closer
proximity to the upper wave.
As the shortwave trough moves from the central Plains toward the mid
MS Valley tonight, large-scale ascent near the stationary front will
increase from the Ozarks into the mid MS/lower OH Valley after about
06Z. Height falls will skirt the surface boundary, with increasing
850 mb winds out of the southwest, perhaps to 50 kt over northern
AR/southern MO. Given an increase in lift and shear, corridors of
severe weather are still anticipated, with all hazards possible.
Damaging gusts or a tornado are most probable near the boundary
where low-level shear and lift will be enhanced.
For more information see mesoscale discussions #0134 and #0135.
..Jewell.. 03/05/2026
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SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0404 PM CST Wed Mar 04 2026
Valid 061200Z - 121200Z
Upper-level flow will split by Day 3/Friday, leading to a cutoff
upper-level low over western Arizona and a strong jet progressing
northeastward through the central Plains. The Arizona low is
forecast to retrograde toward Baja California through Day
4/Saturday. It's not until Day 7/Tuesday that this cutoff low begins
to move eastward through northern Mexico. However, differences in
the timing and evolution of this upper low movement are not yet well
resolved by the available forecast guidance.
On Day 3/Friday, the aforementioned strong flow aloft will
contribute to 20-35 mph west to southwest sustained winds combined
with 10-20% RH from southeastern New Mexico and west Texas through
southwest Kansas. Additionally, a corridor of higher probabilities
for critical fire weather conditions extends from extreme eastern
New Mexico through the Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles where sustained
winds could potentially exceed 40 mph during the afternoon hours.
On Day 4/Saturday, due to the upper low tracking south of southern
California, gusty offshore, northeasterly flow will develop across
portions of southern California. However, recent rainfall over the
last few weeks and higher live fuel moistures preclude an
introduction of probabilities.
Early next week, the upper level pattern remains uncertain due to
differences in the forecast timing and track of the upper level low
over the southwest US and northern Mexico. However, introduction of
probabilities may be necessary across portions of the southern High
Plains and Southwest.
..Stearns/Nauslar.. 03/04/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
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