RSS Mesoscale Discussions from Storm Prediction Center
No watches are valid as of Sat Mar 14 17:33:02 UTC 2026.
No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Sat Mar 14 17:33:02 UTC 2026.
SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1116 AM CDT Sat Mar 14 2026
Valid 141630Z - 151200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe hail and gusty winds may occur with thunderstorms
that develop across parts of the southern Florida Peninsula this
afternoon.
...Florida...
Isolated to scattered thunderstorms should develop this afternoon
across parts of the FL Peninsula and the Keys, with agitated cu
noted on recent visible satellite imagery across east-central to
southeast FL. Greater low-level moisture is present across
central/south FL, where 60s to low 70s surface dewpoints exist per
latest observations. Continued daytime heating of this moist airmass
will support the development of moderate instability through the
afternoon. Modest mid-level lapse rates (reference 00Z MFL and 12Z
KEY observed soundings) and weak low/mid-level winds may tend to
limit updraft strength. Even so, modestly enhanced upper-level winds
and related deep-layer shear around 25-30 kt could support isolated
severe hail and gusty downdraft winds with the strongest cores that
develop. Have added a Marginal Risk for this potential across parts
of the southern FL Peninsula and vicinity where the greatest
concentration of convection is expected.
...Northern Rockies/High Plains...
Moisture will remain meager today (surface dewpoints generally in
the teens and 20s) across the northern Rockies and High Plains as an
upper trough amplifies and a surface cold front advances southward
over this region. Even so, cold temperatures aloft may support very
weak MUCAPE and occasional lightning flashes with low-topped
convection that should develop from eastern ID/southern MT into much
of WY and vicinity this afternoon/evening. While gusty winds may
occur with this activity, the very limited thermodynamic environment
should preclude organized severe thunderstorms.
...Upper Midwest...
Low-level warm/moist advection will increase tonight into early
Sunday morning across parts of the Upper Midwest as a
south-southwesterly low-level jet strengthens. Weak MUCAPE
(generally less than 1000 J/kg) along and north of a warm front and
strong large-scale ascent preceding the upper trough ejecting
eastward over the northern Plains may support elevated thunderstorms
late tonight (mainly after 15/06Z) across parts of IA/MN/WI. Small
hail could occur with the strongest cores, and lightning flashes
appear possible with mixed/wintry precipitation well north of the
warm front into MN/WI.
..Gleason/Lyons.. 03/14/2026
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SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1230 PM CDT Sat Mar 14 2026
Valid 151200Z - 161200Z
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
ARK-LA-TEX/ARK-LA-MISS TO THE WABASH/LOWER OH VALLEYS...
...SUMMARY...
Scattered to widespread damaging winds along with tornadoes should
develop on Sunday afternoon, persisting through Sunday night across
a large portion of the South-Central/Southeast States into the
Midwest/Ohio Valley. The greatest strong tornado and significant
severe wind threats appear to be from the Ark-La-Miss to the Lower
Ohio Valley on Sunday evening.
...Synopsis...
An upper trough will amplify across the central states on Sunday and
become centered from WI to the Ark-La-Tex by 12Z Monday. Associated
surface cyclone will track from the IA/MO border to Lower MI,
deepening Sunday evening/night. As this occurs, attendant cold front
will accelerate eastward across the Mid-MS to the OH Valleys.
Trailing portion of the front will sweep south-southeast into the
northwest Gulf to central Gulf Coast through Monday morning.
Primary changes with the level 3-ENH risk are to include a
10-percent tornado area, southward expansion of 45-percent wind, and
addition of 15-percent and CIG1 hail areas. Expansion of level
1-2/MRGL-SLGT risk areas has occurred over the Southeast for mainly
the 06-12Z period Monday. Uncertainty is greatest on the western
extent for where convection should become severe, and the northern
extent within a thermodynamically challenged environment.
...South-Central/Southeast States to the Midwest...
In the wake of morning elevated convection over a portion of the
Mid/Upper MS Valley, midday convective development should occur
along the highly convergent surface front across a part of the
Mid-MS Valley to the Ozarks. This activity may initially remain
shallow, before deepening and greatly expand in coverage through the
afternoon as it impinges on richer boundary-layer moisture towards
the Ark-La-Tex and the Mid-South portion of the MS Valley. By late
afternoon, an extensively long QLCS should become established from
IL south-southwestward. Semi-discrete supercell development appears
most favored along the southern portion of the broader convective
plume near the front and downstream within a strengthening
warm/moist conveyor. This should support potential for large hail
and a couple strong tornadoes before supercells become absorbed
within the broader QLCS during the evening. This scenario should
also yield an increasingly pinched-off warm-moist sector from the
Mid-South to TN Valley. Despite this aspect, substantial
strengthening of 700-mb winds on either side of the front, initially
across the Mid-South vicinity and expanding to the OH to TN Valleys,
will yield a setup conductive for scattered to widespread damaging
wind swaths through the evening.
On Sunday night, the northern extent of the severe threat should
become more sporadic as surface-based instability becomes/remains
minimal. But the very fast lower-level wind fields may yield
persistence of some damaging wind/brief tornado potential eastward
in the OH Valley/southern Great Lakes. Farther south, there are
increasing signals for renewed low-level warm conveyor convective
development across the central to northeast Gulf Coast vicinity
early Monday morning. Deep-layer shear profiles will be conducive to
semi-discrete supercells just ahead of/merging into the progressive
QLCS. This should foster a period of increased large hail/sustained
tornado potential. Otherwise, damaging winds will remain favored
from at least the FL Panhandle to the southern Appalachians.
..Grams.. 03/14/2026
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SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1128 AM CDT Sat Mar 14 2026
Valid 141700Z - 151200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR MUCH OF NEW MEXICO...EASTERN
COLORADO...PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEBRASKA...WESTERN KANSAS...AND WEST
TEXAS...
...Central and Southern High Plains and central New Mexico...
A surface cyclone will steadily deepen across the central High
Plains through tonight ahead of an approaching mid-level short wave.
This will promote a strengthening low-level westerly to
southwesterly wind response across much of central/southern High
Plains and much of central New Mexico today. Critical fire weather
highlights remain across a large portion of the plains of eastern
CO, southeast WY, southwestern NE and northwestern KS where 15-20
mph west/southwest winds and relative humidity of 10-15% will align
with dry fuels to support wildfire spread. Elevated highlights
extend eastward, encompassing much of the Central and Southern
Plains.
Poor overnight recoveries not exceeding 30% were observed along and
leeward of the CO Front Range, Sangre De Cristo Mountains and much
of central/eastern NM, preconditioning an already receptive
fuelscape in advance of dry and breezy conditions today. Critical
Highlights were nudged westward closer to the Front Range where wind
gusts of 50 mph have already occurred early this morning. Localized
Extremely Critical fire weather concerns are likely in focused
terrain gaps and favorable downslope areas along and just east of
the CO Front Range and Sangre De Cristo Mountains, where sustained
west winds of 25-35 mph with higher gusts align with relative
humidity as low as 10% at times during peak afternoon heating of a
very dry boundary layer.
...Texas Panhandle and Rolling Plains...
Accelerating low-level flow in response to the rapidly deepening
cyclone across NE/KS, arrival stronger mid-level flow expanding into
the southern High Plains and at least some mid/upper level cloud
cover should impede boundary layer decoupling well into the
overnight hours across portions of the TX Panhandle and northwest
TX. Elevated surface winds of 10-20 mph combined with relative
humidity remaining below 25% and dry fuels should maintain at least
an elevated fire weather threat through tonight, possibly into the
early D2/Sunday period.
..Williams.. 03/14/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0100 AM CDT Sat Mar 14 2026/
...Synopsis...
A shortwave trough will move out of the Pacific Northwest into the
Northern Rockies today, with strong westerly flow overspreading the
Rockies into the Central Plains. A lee cyclone is expected to
develop across eastern WY/CO and shift into Nebraska deepening
rapidly. Mass response with the deepening cyclone will result in
tightening of westerly surface gradients across the central/southern
High Plains and an extended period of Elevated to Critical (and
locally Extremely Critical) fire weather concerns.
Across the Front Range in Colorado and in the lee of the high
terrain in New Mexico, surface winds will be further enhanced in the
downslope regimes. Within these regions, relative humidity
reductions 10-15% will overlap sustained west to southwesterly winds
20-30 mph. Locally Extremely Critical fire weather conditions will
be possible in more favored downslope regions in the lee of the
Colorado Rockies, where winds may approach 40-50 mph at times.
Guidance continues to support the notion that Critical fire weather
conditions will spread further east into western Nebraska and
northwestern Kansas, where several fires are ongoing. As such a
broad Critical area was maintained from far western Texas into
western New Mexico/western Colorado to southwestern Wyoming and
eastward into western Nebraska and northwestern Kansas. Within these
regions, there will be potential for rapid fire spread with Elevated
to Critical conditions extending into the evening hours.
Broader Elevated concerns will extend into central NE/KS/OK and
southwest Texas where surface winds 10-20 mph will overlap relative
humidity reductions to around 15-25%.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
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