RSS Mesoscale Discussions from Storm Prediction Center
No watches are valid as of Sat Jan 31 21:04:02 UTC 2026.
MD 0068 CONCERNING HEAVY SNOW FOR PARTS OF EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND ADJACENT SOUTHEASTERN VIRGINIA
Mesoscale Discussion 0068
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1240 PM CST Sat Jan 31 2026
Areas affected...parts of eastern North Carolina and adjacent
southeastern Virginia
Concerning...Heavy snow
Valid 311840Z - 312245Z
SUMMARY...A period of sustained moderate to heavy snow rates
approaching and occasionally exceeding 1 inch per hour appears to be
developing and likely to continue through around 6-7 PM EST.
DISCUSSION...Longer term radar loops indicate increasing
precipitation rates within a zone of stronger lower/mid-tropospheric
warm advection and frontogenetic forcing, extending from just inland
of North Carolina and southeastern Virginia coastal areas
east-northeastward offshore. Across and inland of the coast,
thermodynamic profiles are largely sub-freezing, with Rapid Refresh
forecast soundings indicating modest precipitable water around .4 to
.5 inches along this corridor.
These same soundings suggest lift becoming maximized within
temperatures most conducive to large dendritic ice crystal growth
(roughly in the 700-600 mb layer) through 21-00Z, and becoming
focused near the Virginia/North Carolina border, near but perhaps
remaining just south of the Norfolk/Virginia Beach vicinity, before
stronger forcing tends to shift east of coastal areas this evening.
It appears that this probably will be accompanied by a sustained
period of moderate to heavy snow rates approaching and occasionally
exceeding 1 inch per hour.
..Kerr.. 01/31/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH...
LAT...LON 36347730 37167535 35607528 34937712 35637749 36347730
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SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0148 PM CST Sat Jan 31 2026
Valid 312000Z - 011200Z
...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are not forecast across the U.S. through tonight.
...20Z Update...
The previous forecast (see below) remains unchanged.
..Squitieri.. 01/31/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1000 AM CST Sat Jan 31 2026/
...Synopsis and Discussion...
An upper trough/low over the lower OH and TN Valleys late this
morning will pivot eastward over GA/the Carolinas into the western
Atlantic through tonight. Further deepening of a surface low over
the Gulf Stream east of the NC Outer Banks is forecast through the
period, but any associated thunderstorms are expected to remain
offshore. A separate upper trough with related cool mid-level
temperatures will approach the coastal Pacific Northwest late
tonight into early Sunday morning. However, NAM/RAP forecast
soundings suggest minimal MUCAPE will be detrimental to
lightning-producing convection.
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SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1048 AM CST Sat Jan 31 2026
Valid 011200Z - 021200Z
...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorm potential appears low on Sunday.
...Synopsis...
A large and powerful cyclone initially offshore of the Carolina
coast will move northeastward over the western Atlantic on Sunday,
with cold, dry, and stable conditions expected in its wake across
the eastern CONUS. Elsewhere, a low-amplitude midlevel shortwave
trough will move across the Pacific Northwest early in the period.
Cold temperatures aloft and very weak buoyancy will accompany this
system, and very isolated/sporadic lightning flashes cannot be ruled
out, but it currently appears that convection will be too
weak/shallow for a more substantial thunderstorm threat.
..Dean.. 01/31/2026
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SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1256 PM CST Sat Jan 31 2026
Valid 021200Z - 031200Z
...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are not expected across the U.S. on Monday or Monday
night.
...Synopsis...
Generally dry and stable conditions are expected to limit
thunderstorm potential across the CONUS on Monday. Multiple midlevel
shortwave troughs will move across parts of the Great Plains and
Southwest, as they reinforce a large-scale trough covering much of
the central/eastern CONUS. In response to these shortwave troughs, a
weak surface low is forecast to develop across the southern High
Plains. Modest low-level moisture return (with dewpoints in the 50s
F) will commence across parts of south and central TX, but this
moisture is expected to remain insufficient for appreciable
surface-based destabilization. Weak elevated buoyancy may develop
late in the period from east TX into the ArkLaTex region, but there
is currently little to no signal for deep convection prior to the
end of the forecast period.
..Dean.. 01/31/2026
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SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1043 AM CST Sat Jan 31 2026
Valid 311700Z - 011200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
No changes to Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook were needed. Stronger
northwest winds of 15-25 mph associated with a strong cold front
will continue to spread into the FL Peninsula today. Relative
humidity within the dry, post-frontal air mass will fall to around
30 percent this afternoon, concentrated along the southern AL/GA and
FL Panhandle region. High temperatures primarily in the 30s F
coupled with marginal fuel dryness will limit a broader fire weather
threat across the region where dry and breezy conditions align.
However, pockets of drier fuels may support a locally elevated
wildfire spread potential this afternoon across the northern Gulf
Coast.
..Williams.. 01/31/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1139 PM CST Fri Jan 30 2026/
...Synopsis...
A deepening surface low off the Mid-Atlantic coast will drive 15-20
mph surface winds down the Florida Peninsula today. It is possible
that marginal RH reductions may occur along the Florida-Georgia line
(30-35% during the afternoon). However, light precipitation was
observed on Friday which will dampen fuels. Coupled with
temperatures in the 40s F, fire weather concerns will likely remain
minimal. Elsewhere within the CONUS, combinations of cool/cold
temperatures, light winds, and poor fuel receptiveness will preclude
concerns.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
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SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0134 PM CST Sat Jan 31 2026
Valid 011200Z - 021200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
...Florida...
A very dry, post-frontal air mass being advected into FL will result
in daytime relative humidity 25-35 percent range by Sunday
afternoon, with eastern peninsular locations falling to around 20
percent. Northwest winds of 10-15 mph will gradually subside through
Sunday afternoon as the deep surface low east of the Carolinas
accelerates northeastward. Recent light but widespread rainfall
across central/southern FL, marginally dry fuels and cool
temperatures primarily in the 40s F should still mitigate
significant fire weather concerns for Sunday, precluding the need
for broader Elevated highlights.
..Williams.. 01/31/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1140 PM CST Fri Jan 30 2026/
...Synopsis...
The potent upper-level trough on the East Coast and associated
surface cyclone offshore will lift northeastward with time on
Sunday. Surface high pressure and colder air will shift eastward
into the more of the eastern U.S.
...Florida...
Confidence in reduced RH during the afternoon is higher than on
Saturday. RH of 25-35% appears possible along the eastern Peninsula.
As with Saturday, temperatures will remain on the cool side. More
importantly, winds speeds will be on a downward trend through the
period. Given this expected environment, fire weather risk is
expected to remain low.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
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