RSS Mesoscale Discussions from Storm Prediction Center
No watches are valid as of Sun May 3 19:33:02 UTC 2026.
No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Sun May 3 19:33:02 UTC 2026.
SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1129 AM CDT Sun May 03 2026
Valid 031630Z - 041200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe storms capable of hail and gusty winds are possible
mainly this evening across northern/eastern Missouri into
south-central Illinois.
...Northern/eastern Missouri into south-central Illinois...
Airmass modification and modest-caliber moist advection will occur
north-northeastward into the region along and south of a
decelerating southeastward-moving front. The limited low-level
moisture, coupled with strong heating and mixing, should keep the
airmass across the region capped through the afternoon. However,
toward/after sunset, sufficient moistening atop the decoupling
boundary layer should support increasing thunderstorm development
this evening. Convection will tend to be rooted around 750-850 mb,
and while elevated buoyancy will not be robust, the steep lapse
rates could yield some severe hail (and possibly gusty winds) in the
presence of 40+ kt shear through the cloud-bearing layer.
...Far South Florida...
While a couple of strong storms could occur through the afternoon,
cloud cover and an increasingly prevalent post-frontal regime, along
with weak lapse rates in the cloud-bearing layer, should tend to
limit storm intensity inland.
...Northern California/southwest Oregon...
Thunderstorms are expected along the northern periphery of the upper
low off the central California coast. Increasing mid-level moisture
and cold mid-level temperatures will support modest buoyancy amid
moderate easterly flow aloft, supporting the potential for small
hail and gusty winds with these westward progressing storms during
the late afternoon and early evening. However, organized severe
storm potential is expected to remain low.
..Guyer/Chalmers.. 05/03/2026
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SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0222 PM CDT Sun May 03 2026
Valid 032000Z - 041200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL MISSOURI INTO CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ILLINOIS...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe storms capable of hail and gusty winds are possible
mainly this evening across northern/eastern Missouri into
south-central Illinois.
...20Z Update...
The previous forecast (see below) remains on track.
..Squitieri.. 05/03/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1129 AM CDT Sun May 03 2026/
...Northern/eastern Missouri into south-central Illinois...
Airmass modification and modest-caliber moist advection will occur
north-northeastward into the region along and south of a
decelerating southeastward-moving front. The limited low-level
moisture, coupled with strong heating and mixing, should keep the
airmass across the region capped through the afternoon. However,
toward/after sunset, sufficient moistening atop the decoupling
boundary layer should support increasing thunderstorm development
this evening. Convection will tend to be rooted around 750-850 mb,
and while elevated buoyancy will not be robust, the steep lapse
rates could yield some severe hail (and possibly gusty winds) in the
presence of 40+ kt shear through the cloud-bearing layer.
...Far South Florida...
While a couple of strong storms could occur through the afternoon,
cloud cover and an increasingly prevalent post-frontal regime, along
with weak lapse rates in the cloud-bearing layer, should tend to
limit storm intensity inland.
...Northern California/southwest Oregon...
Thunderstorms are expected along the northern periphery of the upper
low off the central California coast. Increasing mid-level moisture
and cold mid-level temperatures will support modest buoyancy amid
moderate easterly flow aloft, supporting the potential for small
hail and gusty winds with these westward progressing storms during
the late afternoon and early evening. However, organized severe
storm potential is expected to remain low.
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SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1224 PM CDT Sun May 03 2026
Valid 041200Z - 051200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE MIDWEST...
...SUMMARY...
Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of the
Midwest late Monday afternoon into Monday night.
...Synopsis...
A split upper-level flow pattern is expected on Monday. A broad
trough across the northern Plains/Upper Midwest will eventually sag
southward late in the period. Another trough will move into the
lower Colorado Valley. A stronger cold front will move into the
Great Lakes/Midwest/southern Plains late afternoon into the
overnight. A surface low and attendant dryline is forecast within
the central/southern Plains.
...Eastern Kansas into Mid-Mississippi Valley...
Forcing for ascent will remain weak/nebulous across the region until
after 00Z. A stalled weak boundary within central Missouri may serve
as a potential area for storm initiation during the afternoon.
Low-level convergence would be weak and development remains
uncertain. Afternoon develop could pose a greater hail risk with
steep mid-level lapse rates and 35-40 kt of effective shear.
Development along the front is not expected to occur until 00Z or
later as mid-level height falls and the low-level jet increases.
Storms would be initially capable of large hail, but increasing
coverage and interaction should eventually yield upscale growth.
Damaging winds should become the primary threat with time. A locally
greater severe risk could develop should a small MCS develop during
the evening. There is significant spread in guidance on where this
could occur and the late timing of this suggests nocturnal
stabilization could also limit the potential for strong/damaging
surface gusts.
...Lower Great Lakes Vicinity...
Moisture will be more limited with northeastward extent. Daytime
heating may be enough to initiate a few storms along the surface
boundary during the afternoon. However, a more probable scenario is
that greater storm development will occur as large-scale forcing
increases during the evening. Modest shear and buoyancy will limit
the overall severe threat, but damaging winds and isolated large
hail are possible.
...Oklahoma into south-central Kansas...
There is a general agreement within current guidance that a surface
low will deepen in western Kansas/Oklahoma. A triple point is
expected to be located in central Kansas. Despite greater surface
moisture than areas farther northeast, lack of large-scale forcing
will keep capping in place near the surface low and southward along
the dryline in Oklahoma. That said, there will be a strong dryline
circulation with temperatures in the upper 80s/low 90s F to the
west. Models indicate attempts at convection along the dryline, but
confidence in sustained activity remains quite low. A risk for
severe weather would exist if storms can develop and persist.
..Wendt.. 05/03/2026
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SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0231 PM CDT Sun May 03 2026
Valid 051200Z - 061200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR SOUTHEAST
OKLAHOMA...NORTHEAST TEXAS...CENTRAL/NORTHERN ARKANSAS...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated to scattered strong to severe storms are possible Tuesday
afternoon and evening across portions of eastern Oklahoma and
northeast Texas into the Mid-South.
...Synopsis...
Broad troughing within northern parts of the CONUS will begin to
phase with the southwestern trough on Tuesday. A strong mid-level
jet will extend from the Southwest into the lower Great
Lakes/Northeast. At the surface, a low pressure system initially in
eastern Oklahoma will lose definition through the period. A cold
front will extend from the upper Ohio Valley into the Mid-South and
southern Oklahoma by the afternoon. A dryline will extend from the
surface low into central/southwest Texas.
...Southern Plains/Mid-South...
The surface low/triple point and the cold front will generally be
the main focus for convective development around late afternoon.
While front will have modest southward progress through the day, it
does appear that linear modes are more likely within the Mid-South
region. From southeast Oklahoma and western Arkansas, shear vectors
will have a more favorable orientation to the surface trough/dryline
and discrete storms are possible until the front pushes farther
south. Large hail, severe winds, and tornadoes would be possible
early in the convective cycle before a gradual transition to a
damaging wind threat occurs with upscale growth. The latest NAM
output has come in notably cooler than other guidance on account of
more substantial cloud cover and faster front progression. A minor
southeastward shift of severe probabilities was made to account for
lesser destabilization occurring with northward extent.
Along the dryline in North/Central Texas, storm initiation is much
less certain on account of weak large-scale ascent. Should a storm
develop, large hail and severe winds gusts would be possible given
steep lapse rates and long hodographs.
..Wendt.. 05/03/2026
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SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1131 AM CDT Sun May 03 2026
Valid 031700Z - 041200Z
...Morning Update...
The previous forecast remains on track. Current observations depict
clear skies and RH values of 30-40 percent across the northern
Plains this morning. Around 18z, a mix of mid/high cloud cover will
move in ahead/along an incoming cold front, and RH will gradually
increase on the backside of the front. Breezy post-frontal
northwesterly winds of 15-25 mph will ensue through the overnight
hours, but decreasing temperatures and increased RH should provide
some relief to the fire environment.
As northwesterly flow aloft strengthens and surface pressure
gradients tighten behind a departing surface low, portions of the
coastal Mid-Atlantic and Hudson Valley will experience dry and
breezy conditions this afternoon. Elevated highlights have been
withheld due to increasing low/mid level cloud cover and marginal
fuels. However, localized fire weather conditions may arise where
15-20 mph wind gusts and 25-35 percent RH overlap drier fine fuels.
See the previous discussion for more information.
..Elizalde-Garcia.. 05/03/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0153 AM CDT Sun May 03 2026/
...Synopsis...
Behind the departing eastern US trough, strong northwesterly flow
aloft will develop over the central CONUS north of a cut off low
over the West Coast. A shortwave trough embedded within the
northwest flow will move south out of Canada, deepening a surface
cyclone near the international border. A cold front tied to the low
will also move south with dry conditions and strong winds associated
with it.
...Northern Plains...
An upper-level shortwave trough is forecast to deepen as it moves
out of southern Canada into the northern US today and tonight. At
the surface, an associated low will intensify as it traverses
south-central Canada. The low is forecast to deepen as it moves
eastward across southern Canada, promoting dry and breezy conditions
ahead of a southward progressing cold front. Gusty winds of 20-30
mph are expected, along with RH below 25%. Widespread dry and breezy
conditions over a dry fuelscape should promote elevated fire-weather
potential. Some brief locally critical conditions are also possible
given the stronger gusts over parts of western ND and eastern MT.
However, high clouds and marginal RH value should limit the areal
and temporal extent of the more critical conditions.
...Southern Plains...
Dry and breezy southerly flow is expected over parts of western OK
and the TX Panhandles south of a shortwave trough. South/southwest
gusts of 20-25 mph are possible during the afternoon. Afternoon RH
values are expected to decrease to below 20% near a deepening lee
cyclone. This could support some localized fire-weather concerns in
pockets of dry fuels that have not received recent rainfall nor
transitioned to green up. Notably, a very small region of the far
northeastern TX Panhandle, eastern OK Panhandle, and northwestern OK
have not seen measurable precipitation in the last 30 days with
minimal (if any) transition to green up where high fuel loading
exists. However, high cloud cover throughout the afternoon and the
confined nature of the receptive fuels should limit broader
fire-weather concerns. Still, the gusty winds and dry conditions
will likely support drying of fuels into Days 2 and 3.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
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SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0136 PM CDT Sun May 03 2026
Valid 041200Z - 051200Z
...Afternoon Update...
The previous forecast remains on track. Between a mid-level closed
low over central Ontario and surface high pressure off the Carolinas
coastline, tightened surface pressure gradients will enhance dry
southwesterly flow across portions of the Piedmont and Mid-Atlantic.
Surface RH values will decrease to 25-35 percent with widespread
gusts of 20-25 mph for a few hours, promoting localized fire weather
concerns where sporadic dry fuels may exist. However, increasing
daytime cloud cover, recent rainfall, and marginal fuels preclude
the introduction of fire weather highlights.
..Elizalde-Garcia.. 05/03/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0159 AM CDT Sun May 03 2026/
...Synopsis...
Split mid-level flow will continue over the US Monday as the cut off
low over the Southwest merges with a strengthening sub tropical jet
stream. Enhanced westerly flow aloft will move out of the southern
Rockies and over the Plains deepening a lee cyclone. This will
promote dry and breezy conditions over parts of the southern Plains
supporting elevated fire-weather potential.
...Southern Plains...
Dry westerly flow is expected over parts of the southern Plains
Monday as the southern stream upper trough begins to move into the
Southwest. The deepening lee low will support strong west/southwest
surface winds across parts of eastern NM and the TX/OK Panhandles.
Warm temperatures and dry downslope westerly winds of 15-20 mph and
15-20 percent RH will overlap a confined region of dry fuels,
exacerbated by drying from the previous day. This should support
several hours of elevated fire-weather conditions west of a
developing dryline.
...Northern Plains/Midwest...
Gusty post-frontal winds are likely Monday across the northern
Plains and upper Midwest. However, cooler surface temperatures and
cloud cover suggest weaker mixing and higher RH. Still, some pockets
of drier air could support brief localized fire-weather concerns in
pockets of dry fuels given stronger northwest winds.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
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