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  Friday May 15, 2026

RSS Mesoscale Discussions from Storm Prediction Center

SPC Severe Thunderstorm Watch 206

WW 206 SEVERE TSTM OK TX 160020Z - 160400Z
      
WW 0206 Image

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 206
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
720 PM CDT Fri May 15 2026

The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of 
  Western into Southwestern Oklahoma
  Western North Texas

* Effective this Friday evening from 720 PM until 1100 PM CDT.

* Primary threats include...
  Scattered damaging winds and isolated significant gusts to 75
    mph possible
  Isolated large hail events to 1 inch in diameter possible

SUMMARY...Several clusters of thunderstorms will likely continue to
pose a risk for severe gusts (60-75 mph) through the mid evening as
the storms move eastward into a slightly more moist airmass.  An
instance or two of large hail may accompany the stronger cores over
west-central Oklahoma this evening.

The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 50
statute miles east and west of a line from 70 miles northeast of
Clinton OK to 65 miles west southwest of Wichita Falls TX. For a
complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline
update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU6).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.

&&

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 204...WW 205...

AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
1 inch. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 65 knots. A few
cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 400. Mean storm motion vector
27020.

...Smith

Read more

SPC Severe Thunderstorm Watch 205

WW 205 SEVERE TSTM IA MN NE SD 152215Z - 160600Z
      
WW 0205 Image

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 205
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
515 PM CDT Fri May 15 2026

The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of 
  Western into Central and Northern Iowa
  Southern Minnesota
  Eastern Nebraska
  Far Southeast South Dakota

* Effective this Friday afternoon and Saturday morning from 515
  PM until 100 AM CDT.

* Primary threats include...
  Scattered damaging winds and isolated significant gusts to 80
    mph likely
  Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 3.5
    inches in diameter likely
  A tornado or two possible

SUMMARY...Thunderstorms are forecast to develop and intensify early
this evening.  Supercells capable of very large hail are expected
initially (diameters between 2.5 to 3.5 inches).  A tornado or two
is possible later this evening.  Upscale growth into one or two
bands or bowing segments is expected later this evening with severe
wind gusts becoming more prevalent.  Peak gusts associated with the
thunderstorm bands will probably range 70-80 mph.

The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 95
statute miles north and south of a line from 60 miles southeast of
Rochester MN to 5 miles north of Columbus NE. For a complete
depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update
(WOUS64 KWNS WOU5).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.

&&

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 204...

AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
3.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 70 knots. A
few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 550. Mean storm motion vector
27030.

...Smith

Read more

SPC Severe Thunderstorm Watch 204

WW 204 SEVERE TSTM TX 152035Z - 160300Z
      
WW 0204 Image

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 204
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
335 PM CDT Fri May 15 2026

The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of 
  West and Southwest Texas

* Effective this Friday afternoon and evening from 335 PM until
  1000 PM CDT.

* Primary threats include...
  Scattered damaging winds likely with isolated significant gusts
    to 75 mph possible
  Isolated large hail events to 1 inch in diameter possible

SUMMARY...High-based thunderstorms will develop through late
afternoon with an increasing potential for severe-caliber wind
gusts/downbursts, and possibly some hail.

The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 60
statute miles east and west of a line from 40 miles north northeast
of Plainview TX to 65 miles southeast of Fort Stockton TX. For a
complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline
update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU4).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.

&&

AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
1 inch. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 65 knots. A few
cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector
27025.

...Guyer

Read more

SPC Severe Thunderstorm Watch 206 Status Reports

WW 0206 Status Updates
      
WW 0206 Status Image

STATUS FOR WATCH 0206 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET
Read more

SPC Severe Thunderstorm Watch 205 Status Reports

WW 0205 Status Updates
      
WW 0205 Status Image

STATUS REPORT ON WW 205

SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 S OFK TO
20 E OFK TO 25 W SUX TO 20 ENE YKN.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0730

..MEAD..05/16/26

ATTN...WFO...DMX...ARX...FSD...OAX...MPX...


STATUS REPORT FOR WS 205 

SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS 

IAC001-003-005-009-013-015-017-021-023-025-027-029-033-035-037-
039-041-043-047-049-059-063-065-067-069-071-073-075-077-079-081-
083-085-089-091-093-099-109-117-119-121-123-125-127-129-131-133-
135-137-141-143-145-147-149-151-153-155-157-161-165-167-169-171-
173-175-179-181-187-189-191-193-195-197-160140-

IA 
.    IOWA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

ADAIR                ADAMS               ALLAMAKEE           
AUDUBON              BLACK HAWK          BOONE               
BREMER               BUENA VISTA         BUTLER              
CALHOUN              CARROLL             CASS                
CERRO GORDO          CHEROKEE            CHICKASAW           
CLARKE               CLAY                CLAYTON             
CRAWFORD             DALLAS              DICKINSON           
EMMET                FAYETTE             FLOYD               
FRANKLIN             FREMONT             GREENE              
GRUNDY               GUTHRIE             HAMILTON            
HANCOCK              HARDIN              HARRISON            
HOWARD               HUMBOLDT            IDA                 
JASPER               KOSSUTH             LUCAS               
LYON                 MADISON             MAHASKA             
Read more

SPC Severe Thunderstorm Watch 204 Status Reports

WW 0204 Status Updates
      
WW 0204 Status Image

STATUS REPORT ON WW 204

SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 ESE HOB
TO 45 NNW BGS TO 10 NNW CDS.

..SQUITIERI..05/16/26

ATTN...WFO...MAF...LUB...SJT...


STATUS REPORT FOR WS 204 

SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS 

TXC003-033-075-101-103-105-107-115-125-135-151-169-173-207-227-
235-253-263-269-317-329-335-345-371-383-415-431-433-443-447-461-
160140-

TX 
.    TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

ANDREWS              BORDEN              CHILDRESS           
COTTLE               CRANE               CROCKETT            
CROSBY               DAWSON              DICKENS             
ECTOR                FISHER              GARZA               
GLASSCOCK            HASKELL             HOWARD              
IRION                JONES               KENT                
KING                 MARTIN              MIDLAND             
MITCHELL             MOTLEY              PECOS               
REAGAN               SCURRY              STERLING            
STONEWALL            TERRELL             THROCKMORTON        
UPTON                


THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY.  PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.

Read more

SPC MD 730

MD 0730 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 205... FOR EASTERN NEBRASKA INTO WESTERN AND NORTHERN IOWA AND SOUTHERN MINNESOTA
MD 0730 Image


Mesoscale Discussion 0730
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0729 PM CDT Fri May 15 2026

Areas affected...eastern Nebraska into western and northern Iowa and
southern Minnesota

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 205...

Valid 160029Z - 160230Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 205
continues.

SUMMARY...The potential for large hail up to 2.0-2.5" will continue
for the next few hours. With time, the potential for more widespread
damaging winds is expected to increase as thunderstorms consolidate
into a mesoscale convective system. A small temporal window for a
tornado or two may develop prior to that transition across portions
of north-central into northeast Iowa.

DISCUSSION...Semi-discrete to clustering storm modes (including
supercell structures) are being observed as of 00:25 UTC (7:25 PM
CDT) across portions of northwest and north-central IA into southern
MN, with a separate thunderstorm cluster observed over southwest IA.
Large hail up to 1.75" has been observed with the ongoing storms
across northwest and north-central IA, with potentially a greater
damaging wind threat evolving with the southwest IA storm cluster,
where a 74 mph wind gust was recently received.

Latest objective analysis suggests the air mass across eastern NE
into western and central IA remains moderately unstable with
estimated MLCAPE ranging from around 1000 J/kg along the MN-IA
border to as high as 2500 J/kg across southwest IA. The current KOAX
and KDMX VWPs indicate a vertically veering wind profile with 45-50
kt of effective bulk shear. This parameter space will continue to
favor supercell storm modes with an attendant threat for hail up to
2.0-2.5" with any more discrete storms. Otherwise, the continued
increase in storm coverage noted west through north of Fort Dodge,
and from Mason City to the Albert Lea vicinity is expected to
eventually lead to an organized cold pool with a resultant increase
in damaging wind potential. A separate, more organized wind threat
(70-80 mph wind gusts) may also evolve from the ongoing storm
cluster in southwest IA east through the I-80 corridor, south of Des
Moines between 01-02z (8-9 PM CDT). 

Finally, a small spatiotemporal window for a tornado or two may
evolve across portions of north-central into northeast IA in the
01-02z (8-9 PM CDT) timeframe. This threat will be conditional on
the existence of surface-based storm modes that can overcome the
increasing convective inhibition and realize the rapidly
strengthening low-level shear.

..Mead/Smith.. 05/16/2026

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DVN...ARX...MPX...DMX...EAX...FSD...OAX...GID...

LAT...LON   40719732 41549728 42309724 42999699 43819586 43859433
            44209283 44039170 43229115 42809124 42159230 41589269
            41189336 40859410 40569448 40359738 40719732 

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-110 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN

Read more

SPC May 16, 2026 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
      
Day 1 Outlook Image
Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0758 PM CDT Fri May 15 2026

Valid 160100Z - 161200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF
IOWA INTO FAR SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms capable of producing severe gusts and large
hail remain likely this evening centered over Iowa. Isolated to
scattered severe gusts also remain possible over a broader area from
parts of the southern High Plains to the Upper Midwest.

...IA and southern WI into northeast KS/northern MO...
Several clusters of severe storms are currently ongoing across
western into northern IA, with other cells into southeast MN. All
this is occurring near and ahead of a cold front associated with the
glancing upper wave to the north. Moderate instability has developed
as lower 60s F dewpoints spread into the area, and effective
deep-layer shear near 50 kt will continue to support organization
into an MCS as outflows aggregate. Until then, large damaging hail
will also be possible. More isolated activity also extends into far
southeast NE, with other failed attempts at initiation toward far
northern KS. The increasing southwest low-level jet this evening may
support additional development later this evening as the 00Z TOP
sounding remains moist and unstable.

For more information see mesoscale discussions #0729 and #0730.

...Western TX...western OK...southwest KS...
Scattered high-based storms continue to produce locally severe gusts
from parts of western TX into western OK. While capping will
increase this evening, a few more hours of damaging wind threat
appear likely with the activity moving into northwest TX. Additional
isolated activity may also develop anywhere from western OK into
southwest KS as moisture wraps around the surface low and lapse
rates remain steep.

..Jewell.. 05/16/2026

Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
          
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook Image
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0451 PM CDT Fri May 15 2026

Valid 171200Z - 231200Z

Quasi-zonal flow will prevail across a large portion of the eastern
US beginning Day 3/Sunday. Concurrently, a pronounced mid-level
trough is forecast to dig through the Intermountain West and lift
northeast across the Plains through the week. This evolution will
establish a prolonged period of Critical fire weather potential
across parts of the Southwest and southern High Plains. Medium-range
forecast guidance indicates the synoptic pattern will deamplify by
late next week, introducing lower confidence in fire weather threats
as a cooler airmass settles over much of the CONUS. By the following
weekend, surface temperatures begin to rebound back above normal
over the far western CONUS.

...Southwest/Southern Plains...
From Day 3/Sunday through Day 4/Monday, the previously mentioned
robust mid-level trough will drive a multi-day stretch of what will
likely become Elevated to Critical fire weather conditions spanning
the Southwest into the adjacent southern Plains. Warm temperatures
and dry antecedent conditions, driven by recent upper-level ridging,
support cured fuels and have primed the region for ignitions.
West-southwesterly surface winds are progged to sustain at 20-30
mph, overlapping with minimum relative humidity values falling into
the single digits to low teens for prolonged afternoon periods.
Forecast guidance continues to highlight poor overnight moisture
recovery, with RH values largely remaining below 30% through the
entire Day 2/Saturday through Day 4/Monday period. This will extend
active burn windows well into the overnight hours. By Day 5/Tuesday,
lingering stronger-than-typical daytime winds will contribute to
another day of potential fire weather concerns over the region,
albeit less intense than on Day 3/Sunday and Day 4/Monday.

...California...
On Day 4/Monday, tightening surface gradient flow supported by the
jet stream overhead behind the deepening Great Basin trough will
produce strong and dry northerly surface winds (sustained at 15-20
mph) across the CA Central Valley. When paired with afternoon
humidity dropping into the teens, receptive fine fuels, and an
unseasonably warm/dry airmass over the preceding days, the threat
for rapid fire spread remains evident. Therefore, 40% probabilities
have been retained to highlight this fire weather risk.

..Stearns.. 05/15/2026

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

Read more


 
 
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