RSS Mesoscale Discussions from Storm Prediction Center
No watches are valid as of Fri Feb 13 13:32:02 UTC 2026.
No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Fri Feb 13 13:32:02 UTC 2026.
SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0645 AM CST Fri Feb 13 2026
Valid 131300Z - 141200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms could produce hail and gusty
winds this evening into the overnight hours across portions of the
southern Plains.
...Southern Plains...
An upper trough this morning over southern CA/eastern Pacific to the
west of Baja California will move east into the southern Rockies by
early Saturday morning. Strengthening south-southeasterly 850mb
flow is forecast to advect richer moisture northwestward from the
Hill Country (50s dewpoints) into parts of west TX northeastward
into western/central OK. Steep 700-500 mb lapse rates sampled at 12
UTC this morning in Midland, TX (7.7 deg C/km), will aid in the
development of 500-1200 J/kg MUCAPE as the moist plume gradually
moistens/heats today. Forecast soundings shows strong to very
strong effective shear (50-70 kt), which will support storm
organization.
Initially, isolated storms are forecast to develop on the northwest
periphery of moisture return over parts of northwest TX late this
afternoon. As the upper trough approaches the region this evening
into the overnight, a more extensive southwest to northeast corridor
of convection is expected. One or more clusters will likely evolve
into linear bands and move east-northeastward near an
eastward-moving Pacific front and from prior storm-generated cold
pools. One of these linear clusters seems likely from parts of the
Permian Basin vicinity into northwest TX tonight as deeper
large-scale forcing for ascent pivots into the southern High Plains.
A predominately hail risk with the strongest storms this
afternoon/evening will probably transition to a mix of hail/wind
potential during the overnight as the storm mode becomes more
linear. Strengthening low-level warm-air advection over OK tonight
will favor primarily elevated strong to locally severe storms
capable of a hail risk into perhaps as far north as southern KS
during the pre-dawn hours on Saturday.
..Smith/Moore.. 02/13/2026
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Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0359 AM CST Fri Feb 13 2026
Valid 161200Z - 211200Z
...DISCUSSION...
It appears that a blocking high/ridge may be maintained across the
southern mid-latitude east central Pacific (roughly near 150W
longitude) through next week. Downstream, the evolution of an
increasingly prominent mid-level high is forecast across the Gulf
Basin through Bahamas/Caribbean vicinity by the end of next week.
However, developments within the branching westerlies across and
inland of the Pacific coast remain more unclear, particularly
subsequent to some initial consolidation of mid-level troughing near
the U.S. Pacific coast by early next week.
Shorter wavelength perturbations emerging from this cyclonic regime
are generally forecast to progress across and east-northeast of the
Rockies, contributing to periodic lee cyclogenesis. The timing of
potentially stronger cyclogenesis has varied within and among the
various model output, including one possible developing cyclone
across the central Great Plains into portions of the Great Lakes and
Ohio Valley during the early into middle portion of next week.
Regardless of the strength, however, guidance has been consistent
indicating that limited warm sector boundary-layer moisture return
will probably tend to inhibit severe thunderstorm development.
Subsequent, renewed (potentially strong) surface cyclogenesis
appears possible to the lee of the Rockies later next week. Model
spread by that time is notable, but an increasing moist southerly
return flow off the Gulf does appear probable, around the western
flank of the subtropical ridge.
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