RSS Mesoscale Discussions from Storm Prediction Center
No watches are valid as of Thu Jan 22 22:13:02 UTC 2026.
No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Thu Jan 22 22:13:02 UTC 2026.
SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0153 PM CST Thu Jan 22 2026
Valid 222000Z - 231200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated thunderstorms will be possible across southeast Florida
today, but severe thunderstorms are not expected.
No changes have been made to the ongoing forecast.
..Hart.. 01/22/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0955 AM CST Thu Jan 22 2026/
...SE FL...
A weak surface boundary lies just offshore along the southeast FL
coast. Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms will persist along
this boundary through early evening as an upper trough progresses
across the region. This threat should weaken after dark. No severe
storms are expected.
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SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0114 PM CST Thu Jan 22 2026
Valid 241200Z - 251200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
The risk for severe thunderstorms appears negligible across the U.S.
Saturday through Saturday night.
...Discussion...
Downstream of amplified split flow across the Pacific into western
North America, models indicate that several short wave troughs will
gradually consolidate into larger-scale mid-level troughing across
the Rockies and Great Plains into Mississippi Valley during this
period. This is likely to include at least a couple of merging
perturbations of Canadian Arctic origin digging across the
international border through the northern U.S. Rockies and Great
Plains, and another emerging from the northern mid-latitude Pacific
before digging inland across the Pacific Northwest coast through the
Great Basin. Yet another impulse, emerging from the southern
mid-latitude eastern Pacific, is generally forecast to accelerate
across Baja and the northern Mexican Plateau, into the southern
Great Plains by late Saturday night.
Preceded by the southeastward development of an expansive cold
surface ridge across much of the nation to the east of the Rockies,
as far south as the Gulf coast vicinity, the potential for
significant lee surface cyclogenesis appears low through this
period. However, latest guidance appears generally consistent
indicating modestly deepening surface troughing, accompanying
erosion of the cold air, in one corridor across the lower
Mississippi Valley toward the lower Ohio Valley, and another
near/offshore of the Carolina coast by late Saturday night.
Associated destabilization still appears likely to remain elevated,
and generally weak, in nature inland of northwestern and central
Gulf coastal areas, with negligible risk for severe weather through
at least 12Z Sunday.
..Kerr.. 01/22/2026
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SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0133 PM CST Thu Jan 22 2026
Valid 231200Z - 241200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
Minimal fire weather concerns are expected across the contiguous
U.S. Friday as a strong cold front moves into the Southern U.S.
Expansive cloud cover and onset of precipitation across the
Southwest and central/southern Plains ahead of an impactful
mid-level trough will further mitigate the fire weather threat.
..Williams.. 01/22/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1153 PM CST Wed Jan 21 2026/
...Synopsis...
An arctic air mass will infiltrate the CONUS, precluding
fire-weather concerns.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
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SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0256 PM CST Thu Jan 22 2026
Valid 241200Z - 301200Z
...Synopsis...
A dynamic mid-level trough and attendant large scale ascent will
move across the Southern U.S. through early next week while a
surface trough across south TX on Day 3/Saturday translates eastward
evolves into a deepening surface low before reaching the East Coast
on Day 5/Monday. A relatively shallow cold air mass in place across
the Southern U.S. will yield a widespread mix of precipitation,
stretching from the Southwestern to the Northeast by early next
week. This coupled with lingering cold temperatures, surface high
pressure and persistent mean upper-level troughing will likely limit
fire weather concerns across the eastern U.S. An upper-level ridge
building back over the western U.S. will maintain primarily dry
conditions over the Desert Southwest with above normal temperatures
returning to much of the region by next week. Although some breezy
north winds aligning with low relative humidity could occur Day
4/Sunday with the passage of a cold front, overall fuels remains
largely unreceptive, precluding introduction of critical
probabilities at this time.
..Williams.. 01/22/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
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