RSS Mesoscale Discussions from Storm Prediction Center
WW 218 TORNADO IA KS MO 180105Z - 180800Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Tornado Watch Number 218
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
805 PM CDT Sun May 17 2026
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Tornado Watch for portions of
Central and Southern Iowa
Far Northeast Kansas
Northwest Missouri
* Effective this Sunday night and Monday morning from 805 PM
until 300 AM CDT.
* Primary threats include...
A couple tornadoes possible
Scattered damaging winds and isolated significant gusts to 80
mph likely
Isolated large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible
SUMMARY...A severe band of thunderstorms will move into the Watch
from the west this evening posing a risk for a couple of tornadoes
and scattered severe gusts (60-80 mph). A couple of embedded
supercells are also possible over southwestern parts of the Watch
area, where a risk for a tornado and large hail also exists. The
risk will transition to mostly a wind-damage risk into the overnight
hours as storms move into eastern parts of the Watch, but a
lingering line-embedded tornado risk may continue.
The tornado watch area is approximately along and 70 statute miles
east and west of a line from 25 miles east northeast of Fort Dodge
IA to 55 miles south southwest of Lamoni IA. For a complete
depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update
(WOUS64 KWNS WOU8).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for
tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch
area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for
threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements
and possible warnings.
&&
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 213...WW 214...WW
215...WW 216...WW 217...
AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail
surface and aloft to 1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind
gusts to 70 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 450. Mean
storm motion vector 24040.
...Smith
Read more
WW 217 TORNADO KS 180040Z - 180400Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Tornado Watch Number 217
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
740 PM CDT Sun May 17 2026
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Tornado Watch for portions of
Southwest Kansas
* Effective this Sunday evening from 740 PM until 1100 PM CDT.
* Primary threats include...
A couple tornadoes possible
Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2.5
inches in diameter possible
Isolated damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible
SUMMARY...Intensifying thunderstorms will likely pose a risk for
large to very large hail this evening as storms develop near a cold
front and retreating dryline. A couple of tornadoes are possible,
especially if a supercell can become established as low-level wind
shear strengthens this evening.
The tornado watch area is approximately along and 45 statute miles
east and west of a line from 30 miles northeast of Russell KS to 35
miles southeast of Dodge City KS. For a complete depiction of the
watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU7).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for
tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch
area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for
threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements
and possible warnings.
&&
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 213...WW 214...WW
215...WW 216...
AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail
surface and aloft to 2.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind
gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean
storm motion vector 23025.
...Smith
Read more
WW 216 TORNADO IA MN 172310Z - 180600Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Tornado Watch Number 216
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
610 PM CDT Sun May 17 2026
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Tornado Watch for portions of
Northern Iowa
Southern Minnesota
* Effective this Sunday night and Monday morning from 610 PM
until 100 AM CDT.
* Primary threats include...
A few tornadoes and a couple intense tornadoes possible
Widespread damaging winds and isolated significant gusts to 75
mph likely
Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2
inches in diameter possible
SUMMARY...Scattered severe thunderstorms will move into the Watch
area from the west this evening. The stronger thunderstorms will
include supercells and intense thunderstorm clusters, which will
yield a risk for tornadoes (perhaps a strong tornado), large hail,
and scattered severe gusts. An organized band of severe
thunderstorms is eventually forecast to develop and move east across
the Watch later this evening. Severe gusts and a QLCS tornado are
possible with this activity.
The tornado watch area is approximately along and 70 statute miles
east and west of a line from 20 miles east northeast of Mankato MN
to 40 miles south southwest of Mason City IA. For a complete
depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update
(WOUS64 KWNS WOU6).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for
tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch
area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for
threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements
and possible warnings.
&&
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 213...WW 214...WW 215...
AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail
surface and aloft to 2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind
gusts to 65 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean
storm motion vector 26030.
...Smith
Read more
WW 214 TORNADO IA KS NE 172010Z - 180400Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Tornado Watch Number 214
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
310 PM CDT Sun May 17 2026
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Tornado Watch for portions of
Far Southwest Iowa
North-Central and Northeast Kansas
Southeast Nebraska
* Effective this Sunday afternoon and evening from 310 PM until
1100 PM CDT.
* Primary threats include...
A few tornadoes likely with a couple intense tornadoes possible
Scattered damaging winds likely with isolated significant gusts
to 75 mph possible
Scattered large hail likely with isolated very large hail events
to 3 inches in diameter possible
SUMMARY...The airmass ahead of the approaching cold front from
southeast Nebraska into north-central/northeast Kansas continues to
destabilize amid strong heating and low-level moisture advection.
Discrete thunderstorm development is possible in the warm sector
ahead of this cold front, with the environmental conditions
supportive of supercells capable of all hazards, including very
large hail to 3" in diameter and strong tornadoes. Thunderstorm
development is possible along the front as well, with large hail and
damaging gusts as the primary hazards with these storms.
The tornado watch area is approximately along and 95 statute miles
east and west of a line from 10 miles north northeast of Columbus NE
to 25 miles south of Concordia KS. For a complete depiction of the
watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU4).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for
tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch
area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for
threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements
and possible warnings.
&&
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 213...
AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail
surface and aloft to 3 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind
gusts to 65 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 550. Mean
storm motion vector 24035.
...Mosier
Read more
WW 213 TORNADO IA MN NE SD 171840Z - 180300Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Tornado Watch Number 213
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
140 PM CDT Sun May 17 2026
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Tornado Watch for portions of
Northwest Iowa
Far Southwest Minnesota
Northeast Nebraska
Southeast South Dakota
* Effective this Sunday afternoon and evening from 140 PM until
1000 PM CDT.
* Primary threats include...
A few tornadoes likely with a couple intense tornadoes possible
Scattered damaging winds likely with isolated significant gusts
to 85 mph possible
Scattered large hail likely with isolated very large hail events
to 3 inches in diameter possible
SUMMARY...Thunderstorm coverage and intensity is expected to
increase this afternoon along and ahead of a cold front moving into
the Mid Missouri Valley. Strong buoyancy and shear will favor
supercells with any discrete development. These intense supercells
would be capable of all hazards, including very large hail (up to
3"+ in diameter) and strong tornadoes. More linear development is
expected along the front, with strong gusts and line-embedded
possible, particularly across eastern portions of the watch (i.e.
far northeast Nebraska, far southeast South Dakota, northwest Iowa
and southwest Minnesota).
The tornado watch area is approximately along and 70 statute miles
north and south of a line from 40 miles west northwest of Oneill NE
to 35 miles north of Storm Lake IA. For a complete depiction of the
watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU3).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for
tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch
area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for
threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements
and possible warnings.
&&
AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail
surface and aloft to 3 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind
gusts to 75 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean
storm motion vector 24035.
...Mosier
Read more
WW 0218 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 218
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..JEWELL..05/18/26
ATTN...WFO...DMX...EAX...
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 218
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
IAC001-003-009-013-015-025-027-029-039-047-049-053-073-075-077-
079-083-099-117-121-123-125-127-135-153-157-159-161-169-171-173-
175-181-185-187-180340-
IA
. IOWA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ADAIR ADAMS AUDUBON
BLACK HAWK BOONE CALHOUN
CARROLL CASS CLARKE
CRAWFORD DALLAS DECATUR
GREENE GRUNDY GUTHRIE
HAMILTON HARDIN JASPER
LUCAS MADISON MAHASKA
MARION MARSHALL MONROE
POLK POWESHIEK RINGGOLD
SAC STORY TAMA
TAYLOR UNION WARREN
WAYNE WEBSTER
KSC043-180340-
KS
. KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
Read more
WW 0217 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0217 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET
Read more
WW 0216 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 216
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 ENE OTG
TO 15 N FRM TO 30 NNW MKT.
..JEWELL..05/18/26
ATTN...WFO...DMX...ARX...MPX...
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 216
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
IAC017-023-033-037-063-065-067-069-081-089-091-109-131-147-151-
189-191-195-197-180340-
IA
. IOWA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BREMER BUTLER CERRO GORDO
CHICKASAW EMMET FAYETTE
FLOYD FRANKLIN HANCOCK
HOWARD HUMBOLDT KOSSUTH
MITCHELL PALO ALTO POCAHONTAS
WINNEBAGO WINNESHIEK WORTH
WRIGHT
MNC013-039-043-045-047-091-099-103-109-147-161-180340-
MN
. MINNESOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BLUE EARTH DODGE FARIBAULT
FILLMORE FREEBORN MARTIN
MOWER NICOLLET OLMSTED
STEELE WASECA
Read more
WW 0215 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 215
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 SSE GLD
TO 25 SSE GLD TO 20 NNE GLD TO 30 WNW HLC.
..JEWELL..05/18/26
ATTN...WFO...GLD...
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 215
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
KSC109-193-180140-
KS
. KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
LOGAN THOMAS
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
Read more
WW 0214 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 214
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 WNW RSL
TO 25 WSW CNK TO 20 NNE CNK TO 5 W BIE TO 25 SE LNK TO 15 WNW OMA
TO 15 N OMA TO 20 NE TQE.
..JEWELL..05/18/26
ATTN...WFO...OAX...TOP...GID...ICT...
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 214
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
IAC071-085-129-137-145-155-165-180340-
IA
. IOWA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
FREMONT HARRISON MILLS
MONTGOMERY PAGE POTTAWATTAMIE
SHELBY
KSC009-013-027-029-041-053-061-105-117-123-131-143-149-159-161-
167-169-201-180340-
KS
. KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BARTON BROWN CLAY
CLOUD DICKINSON ELLSWORTH
GEARY LINCOLN MARSHALL
MITCHELL NEMAHA OTTAWA
POTTAWATOMIE RICE RILEY
RUSSELL SALINE WASHINGTON
Read more
WW 0213 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 213
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 WSW TQE
TO 15 SSW SUX TO 30 N SUX TO 40 SSW OTG TO 15 SSE OTG TO 25 ENE
OTG TO 15 E RWF.
..JEWELL..05/18/26
ATTN...WFO...FSD...OAX...LBF...
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 213
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
IAC021-035-041-059-093-133-141-143-149-167-193-180240-
IA
. IOWA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BUENA VISTA CHEROKEE CLAY
DICKINSON IDA MONONA
O'BRIEN OSCEOLA PLYMOUTH
SIOUX WOODBURY
MNC033-063-180240-
MN
. MINNESOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
COTTONWOOD JACKSON
NEC021-173-180240-
NE
. NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
Read more
No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Mon May 18 02:00:06 UTC 2026.
SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0807 PM CDT Sun May 17 2026
Valid 180100Z - 181200Z
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS/MIDDLE MISSOURI VALLEY...
...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms will continue tonight especially across Kansas
into far eastern Nebraska and Iowa, northwest Missouri and southern
Minnesota. This includes an increasing evening-time potential for
damaging winds aside from continued tornado and large hail risks
regionally.
...Central/southern Plains to Upper Midwest...
General regional trends will be for ongoing storms to continue to
grow upscale with increasing damaging wind potential this evening.
However, tornado potential (including a few strong) will continue
with embedded/semi-discrete supercells this evening, including near
the southern Minnesota warm frontal vicinity, and farther
south-southwest across far eastern Nebraska/western Iowa and
northeast Kansas and northwest Missouri, and perhaps with southern
peripheral development near the dryline across southern Kansas.
Scenario is supported by a moist/unstable air mass, along with
dramatically strengthening south-southwesterly winds in the lowest
2-3 km AGL, a trend already noted in regional WSR-88D VWP data as
supplemental to 00z observed soundings from Omaha/Topeka/Norman and
Springfield, Missouri.
..Guyer.. 05/18/2026
Read more
SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0439 PM CDT Sun May 17 2026
Valid 191200Z - 251200Z
A progressive mid-level synoptic pattern is expected to persist
across the central CONUS through mid-week. The primary mid-level
trough driving current fire weather concerns (on Day 1/Sunday and
Day 2/Monday) will eject northeastward into the Plains, driving a
cold front with precipitation through the central US. Behind the
front will overspread a combination of below normal temperatures and
fairly widespread precipitation across much of the central and
eastern portions of the CONUS as the synoptic flow begins to
stabilize through the end of the work week. This will briefly dampen
the fire weather threat across much of the country on Tuesday and
likely continuing through next weekend. This could support
additional green up in some locations, particularly across the
northern CONUS, that have thus far been struggling to grow
fire-slowing vegetation. However, much longer duration precipitation
and cool conditions would be needed to appreciably improve heavy
dead fuel moisture and resultant ERCs.
...Southwest...
On Day 3/Tuesday and Day 4/Wednesday, lingering moderately strong
mid-level flow overhead as the trough begins to lift northeast will
contribute to additional chances, albeit less certain, for critical
wind/RH over portions of the Southwest. While the footprint may be
slightly different from one day to the other, daytime southwest
winds sustained at 10-20 mph will combine with minimum RHs of
10-20%. Thus, 40% probabilities of critical conditions remain in the
forecast over portions of AZ and NM.
..Stearns.. 05/17/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
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