RSS Mesoscale Discussions from Storm Prediction Center
No watches are valid as of Fri Feb 20 16:41:02 UTC 2026.
No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Fri Feb 20 16:41:02 UTC 2026.
SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0651 AM CST Fri Feb 20 2026
Valid 201300Z - 211200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Organized severe thunderstorms are not expected today.
...Discussion...
A shortwave trough will move quickly eastward across the Great Lakes
into the Northeast, with a surface low developing off the coastal
Mid-Atlantic. Over land, a cold front will progress eastward across
Virginia and the Carolinas, with rapid drying from the west. Despite
this, a few showers/thunderstorms will be possible prior to the
front moving offshore. Warm profiles aloft suggest weak storms, but
strong westerlies just off the surface could yield gusty winds.
The south-southwest extent of front will decelerate today and then
generally stall, orienting in a west/southwest-east/northeast
fashion across Louisiana, southern portions of Mississippi/Alabama
and the middle part of Georgia by late today. Isolated thunderstorms
may become a bit more probable into tonight as weak ascent focuses
along/north of the front. That said, relatively warm mid-level
thermodynamic profiles may limit the prevalence of lightning, as
well as any consideration for meaningful hail magnitudes. This is
even while elevated instability will quantitatively increase and
hodographs will be rather long, with steadily strengthening
southwesterly winds in the lowest 2-3 km AGL and 50+ kt shear
through the cloud-bearing layer. While a couple of strong storms
could occur tonight, thinking remains that the potential for severe
storms should remain low/conditional.
..Guyer/Grams.. 02/20/2026
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SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1027 AM CST Fri Feb 20 2026
Valid 201630Z - 211200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EASTERN
NORTH CAROLINA THIS AFTERNOON...
...SUMMARY...
A few damaging gusts are possible across eastern North Carolina this
afternoon.
...Synopsis and Discussion...
Recent satellite imagery shows several cyclones and shortwave
troughs within the upper pattern across the CONUS this morning. The
most prominent is the cyclone currently over the southern Lake
Michigan vicinity. Surface analysis places the surface low
associated with system in the same location, revealing the stacked
and mature character of this system. An occluded front extends
southeastward from this low across southern Lower MI into northwest
PA before arcing more southward across western PA, central WV, and
far western VA. Here it intersects the stationary wedge front over
far northeast NC before transitioning to a cold front and continuing
southwestward/west-southwestward through Southeast states.
...Carolinas into the Southeast...
General expectation is for the northern portion of this cold front
to continue eastward/southeastward throughout the day as its parent
cyclone shifts eastward as well. This will take the front off the
Mid-Atlantic Coast later tonight. Isolated thunderstorms are
anticipated along and ahead of this front across the eastern
Carolinas. Despite favorable low-level moisture (i.e. dewpoints in
mid 60s), warm temperatures aloft will mitigate the overall
buoyancy, likely tempering updraft strength and persistence. Even
so, the moderate to strong deep-layer western flow may still support
a few damaging gusts, particularly across northeast NC where some
additional lift may be provided by interaction with the stationary
wedge front.
Farther south, the front is expected to stall later this
afternoon/evening from southern GA west-southwestward into southern
LA. Some strengthening of the low-level flow is anticipated in the
vicinity of this boundary ahead of another shortwave progressing
eastward across the central Plains. Resulting warm-air advection
amid the modestly moist and buoyant environment will foster isolated
to widely scattered thunderstorm development overnight. Moderate to
strong mid to upper-level southwesterlies will be in place,
supporting sufficient vertical shear for organized updrafts.
However, thermodynamic profiles should be relatively warm, limiting
buoyancy and likely tempering the overall severe potential. While a
couple of strong storms could occur tonight, current thinking
remains that the potential for severe storms should remain
low/conditional.
...Northwest PA and Southwestern NY...
Low-topped convection is anticipated along the occluded front across
northwest PA and western NY this afternoon. This convection may not
even be deep enough for lightning but a few stronger, convectively
aided gusts are possible.
..Mosier/Chalmers/Thompson.. 02/20/2026
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SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1038 AM CST Fri Feb 20 2026
Valid 201700Z - 211200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN NEW MEXICO
INTO WEST TEXAS...
...Morning Update...
A surface low will move across the NM higher terrain towards the
northern TX Panhandle late this afternoon. While the region has much
cooler daytime forecast temperatures, the deepening surface low will
tighten surface pressure gradients leading to downslope westerly
winds of 20-30 mph with daytime heating dropping relative humidity
to 10-20 percent. Locally higher gusts are possible depending on
deep mixing, as forecast soundings have strong 40-50 kt winds at the
boundary layer. These conditions overlapping a mix of drier fuels
support widespread Elevated and Critical fire weather across eastern
NM, the OK Panhandle, and West TX this afternoon.
Additionally, far northeastern NM and the northwestern OK Panhandle
could have the potential for a few isolated lightning flashes
between 21z-00z. While the localized marginal nature coupled with
cooler temperatures precludes the introduction of an Isolated Dry
Thunderstorm area, a lightning ignition cannot be ruled out given
receptive fuels across the area.
..Elizalde-Garcia/Elliot.. 02/20/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0118 AM CST Fri Feb 20 2026/
...Synopsis...
As a shortwave trough embedded in broader westerly flow progresses
across the southern Rockies into the Southern Great Plains, dry and
breezy downslope winds associated with a developing surface low will
result in widespread Elevated to Critical fire-weather concerns
across portions of eastern New Mexico into the Oklahoma
Panhandle/West Texas. Relative humidity as low as 10-15% (drier with
southward extent) coupled with 20-25 MPH winds will overlap a
variety of fuel conditions, ranging from seasonal 60th percentile
ERCs to 95th percentile. This will support wildfire spread with any
ignitions during the afternoon.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
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