RSS Mesoscale Discussions from Storm Prediction Center
No watches are valid as of Thu Jul 30 01:54:02 UTC 2026.
No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Thu Jul 30 01:54:02 UTC 2026.
SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0746 PM CDT Wed Jul 29 2026
Valid 300100Z - 301200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF
NORTHERN MINNESOTA SOUTHWESTWARD INTO THE WESTERN DAKOTAS...IN
NORTHERN FLORIDA AND IN PARTS OF THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST...
...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms with isolated severe wind gusts and hail will be
possible this evening into the early overnight from parts of
northern Minnesota southwestward into the western Dakotas.
Additional severe gusts could occur in northern Florida and in parts
of the Intermountain West.
...Northern Minnesota/Dakotas/Western Nebraska...
A subtle shortwave trough is evident on water vapor imagery over the
northern High Plains. A sufficiently moist airmass is located ahead
of the trough from the central and western Dakotas, where surface
dewpoints are generally in the upper 50s and 60s F. Scattered strong
thunderstorms are ongoing near a gradient of moderate instability
from central North Dakota southwestward into western South Dakota.
Along this gradient, surface-temperature dewpoint spreads are
generally in the 30 to 40 degree F range, and the RAP has 0-3 km
lapse rates in the 8 to 8.5 C/km range. This should support an
isolated potential for severe wind gusts early this evening. Hail
could also occur with the stronger cells. An isolated severe threat
could persist into the late evening and early overnight in parts of
northern North Dakota and northern Minnesota, as the shortwave
trough moves eastward across the region.
...Northern Florida...
The latest water vapor imagery shows a mid-level shortwave trough
along the Eastern Seaboard. At the surface, an outflow boundary is
located across northern Florida, along which scattered thunderstorms
are ongoing. Surface dewpoints to the south of the outflow boundary
are mostly in the 70s F. This is contributing to moderate
instability, with the RAP showing MLCAPE in the 2500 to 3000 J/kg
range. This thermodynamic environment may support a potential for
isolated severe gusts early this evening.
...Intermountain West...
A mid-level shortwave trough is currently evident on water vapor
imagery over southeastern Idaho. Scattered thunderstorms are being
supported by large-scale ascent associated with this trough. In
addition, a small pocket of instability is analyzed by the RAP over
southeast Idaho, where MLCAPE is around 1000 J/kg. The instability
combined with steep low to mid-level lapse rates could support
isolated severe wind gusts early this evening.
..Broyles.. 07/30/2026
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SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0446 PM CDT Wed Jul 29 2026
Valid 311200Z - 061200Z
...Synopsis...
Upper-level troughing should persist over the northeastern CONUS
into early next week, while high pressure will remain centered over
the Desert Southwest through the forecast period. Upper-level
troughing is forecast to continue across portions of the Pacific
Northwest through the weekend, with an eastern Pacific upper-level
low approaching the region on Day 3/Friday. Ensemble guidance
suggests the upper low will move onshore Day 4/Saturday, inducing
lee cyclogenesis east of the Canadian Rockies and sending an
associated dry cold front southward. This feature will reinforce
gusty surface winds amid a dry airmass across portions of the
Northwest, Northern Rockies, and Great Basin through Day 6/Monday.
Next week, long-range model guidance begins to differ in the
progression of the overall upper pattern. Some solutions depict a
temporary ridge to rebuild over the western CONUS, while others
portray a shortwave trough impinging upon the Pacific Northwest.
...Days 4-6/Saturday-Monday - Northwestern US...
As the upper low transitions into British Columbia and a surface low
amplifies across southern Alberta on Day 4/Saturday, a dry cold
front will progress southward through the Pacific Northwest. East of
the Cascades, a tightening surface pressure gradient and a 700 mb
40-50 kt jet will promote strong surface winds amid a very dry
boundary layer -- allowing greater potential for critical fire
conditions to materialize, especially where ERCs are approaching the
95th percentile. As such, 70% Critical probabilities have been
introduced across the Columbia Basin. 40% Critical probabilities
have been maintained on Day 4-5/Saturday-Sunday across the northwest
CONUS and the northern Great Basin where hot, dry, and windy
conditions are forecast to overlap dry fuels. On Day 6/Monday,
stronger southwest/westerly flow aloft will finally begin to exit
the region, pushing into the northern Plains and Upper Midwest.
Nevertheless, residual dry and breezy conditions are expected across
the northern Great Basin into western Wyoming, supporting the
introduction of 40% Critical probabilities.
..Elizalde-Garcia.. 07/29/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
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