RSS Mesoscale Discussions from Storm Prediction Center
No watches are valid as of Thu Apr 2 06:07:01 UTC 2026.
No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Thu Apr 2 06:07:01 UTC 2026.
SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0102 AM CDT Thu Apr 02 2026
Valid 021200Z - 031200Z
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EASTERN
IOWA...NORTHERN ILLINOIS...AND FAR SOUTHERN WISCONSIN...
...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms capable of producing a few tornadoes appear
probable across parts of eastern Iowa, northern Illinois, and
southern Wisconsin this afternoon. Additionally, damaging
thunderstorm winds will be possible from eastern Iowa northeast into
Michigan.
... Overview ...
A negatively tilted trough will quickly lift northward through the
Plains and across the Great Lakes today and tonight. As this occurs,
a modest surface low will race northeast from north-central Kansas
this morning into Ontario by Friday morning. Attendant to this
surface low, a west-east oriented warm front will lift northward
across the Great Lakes during the day and a north-south cold front
will push east across the region during the late afternoon and
overnight.
... Eastern Iowa east-north into Michigan ...
A strong low-level jet at the start of the forecast period will
support widespread showers and thunderstorms across the area. The
low-level jet will strengthen through the morning as the midlevel
trough approaches and the H850 low intensifies. This will maintain
showers and thunderstorms through at least midday across Iowa and
Illinois before the H850 low moves far enough north and east for the
core of the low-level jet to focus farther east, taking the
precipitation with it.
In the wake of the morning/early afternoon convection, a narrow
corridor of destabilization should occur across central/eastern Iowa
and northwest Illinois to the south of the warm front and east of
the cold front. Scattered supercells are expected to develop along
the cold front during the afternoon where MUCAPE in excess of 1000
J/kg and deep-layer shear on the order of 45 knots exists. Strong
low-level kinematic fields will support a tornado and wind threat
with these initial storms, and, despite modest lapse-rates, the
presence of supercells within a modestly unstable environment will
support some hail potential.
By late afternoon/early evening these supercells should move into a
less stable environment characterized by decreasing CAPE but
increasing low-level shear. Current expectation is that the initial
discrete storms will eventually grow upscale into one or more linear
segments, along the advancing cold front. Despite the decreasing
instability, the strength of the low-level wind field will support a
continued wind threat eastward into Lower Michigan during the
evening and overnight hours.
... Northeast Arkansas, Southeast Missouri, western Tennessee, and
western Kentucky ...
Isolated thunderstorms will be possible during the afternoon along
and ahead of the surface cold front, where modest warm-air advection
is forecast to persist through the day. Despite weakening kinematic
fields, deep-layer shear on the order of 30 knots and MUCAPE between
1000-2000 J/kg will support at least some severe potential --
including a tornado or two -- during the late afternoon and early
evening.
..Marsh/Chalmers.. 04/02/2026
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SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0104 AM CDT Thu Apr 02 2026
Valid 031200Z - 041200Z
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHERN
IOWA INTO NORTHERN MISSOURI...
...SUMMARY...
An extensive squall line may develop across parts of the east
central Great Plains late Friday afternoon, and perhaps become
capable of producing widespread strong to severe wind gusts and a
risk for tornadoes while advancing toward to the middle Mississippi
Valley and southeastern Great Plains through Friday evening.
...Synopsis...
Early-morning water-vapor imagery depicts an upper wave approaching
the Pacific Northwest. This feature is forecast to translate
east/southeastward over the next 48 hours, eventually ejecting into
the central Plains late Friday afternoon into Friday evening. As
this occurs, robust cyclogenesis is expected along a residual
baroclinic zone across the southern to central Plains. Low to mid
60s dewpoints will spread north from the southern Plains/Ozark
Plateau into the Midwest as the baroclinic zone lifts northward as a
warm front. By late afternoon a cold front will begin pushing
southeast across NE, KS, and OK, which will support scattered to
widespread thunderstorm development by early evening. Elsewhere,
more isolated thunderstorms are expected along the warm frontal zone
draped from the Midwest into the upper OH Valley.
....Iowa and northern Missouri...
Regionally, the best convective environment will most likely emerge
immediately south of the warm front and ahead of the developing
surface low. Here, seasonally rich low-level moisture coupled with
several hours of synoptic-scale ascent/cooling aloft will support
MLCAPE values upwards of 2000 J/kg, and deep-layer shear magnitudes
should be maximized within the warm sector given closer proximity to
the upper jet. Latest ensemble guidance continues to show a
favorable tornado environment along the northern fringe of the warm
sector, characterized by effective SRH values on the order of
200-250 m2/s2 and STP values likely increasing into the 2-4 range by
early evening.
This environment will likely support a threat for significant
tornadoes given discrete storm modes; however, guidance continues to
suggest that initially discrete cells developing along the cold
front will likely grow upscale within a few hours. CAM solutions
continue to vary regarding the possibility of pre-frontal supercell
development along the warm front and/or within the warm sector.
Limited confidence in a prolonged supercell tornado threat precludes
higher tornado probabilities at this time, though the strongly
sheared low-level wind profile will likely support an embedded
tornado threat within the line to the south of the warm front. If
pre-frontal supercells can develop along/near the surface warm front
(as hinted by recent ARW and RRFS solutions) they will likely pose a
threat for strong tornadoes. As the convective line matures and
spreads east, severe gusts should become more prevalent, including
the potential for a significant wind gust or two given the focused
low-level mass response in close proximity to the surface low.
...Kansas into Oklahoma and northern Texas...
Scattered to widespread thunderstorm development is anticipated by
late afternoon along the trailing cold front from eastern KS into
northern OK. Wind vectors through much of the profile will promote
storm motion and orientation along the initiating cold front, which
will result in quick upscale growth into a convective line.
Propagation southeastward into the warm sector may be modulated by
the mean southwesterly flow regime, though the line should
eventually move east/southeast through late evening and overnight as
the cold front advances southeast. While severe hail may be an
initial threat as convection develops, strong to severe wind gusts
should quickly become the predominant hazard with some threat for
embedded circulations.
Further southwest into southwest OK/northwest TX, weaker forcing for
ascent will likely yield more sparse storm coverage but a higher
probability for discrete cells. Forecast hodographs depict marginal
low-level wind shear, but favorably elongated wind profiles aloft
that will favor splitting supercells capable of producing large to
very large (2+ inch) hail. There is also a signal in some guidance
for somewhat more scattered, potentially elevated, convection
developing by early afternoon across northwest to north-central TX
within a weak warm advection regime. While confidence in how
widespread or intense this activity will be is limited due to model
variance, the environment should support organized cells capable of
large hail.
...Ohio Valley...
Ascent along the residual boundary should promote isolated
thunderstorm by late afternoon as diurnal heating erodes inhibition.
While deep-layer flow will be more modest compared to locations
further west, 30-35 knot mid-level winds will help support a few
organized cells capable of large hail and damaging gusts.
..Moore.. 04/02/2026
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SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1244 AM CDT Thu Apr 02 2026
Valid 021200Z - 031200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL
HIGH PLAINS...
...Synopsis...
A mid-level, shortwave trough will impinge on the central Rockies
today, resulting in the development of a surface low across the
central Great Plains. Modest westerly, mid-level flow will support a
downslope regime across the southern/central Rockies. Coupled with
gradient flow, this will promote dry and windy conditions supportive
of wildfire spread across portions of the southern/central High
Plains.
...Central/southern High Plains...
By afternoon peak heating, the combination of downslope and gradient
flow is expected to support 20-25 mph sustained southwesterly
surface winds from northeastern New Mexico into the western
Texas/Oklahoma Panhandles, southeastern Colorado, and far
southwestern Kansas. With dry fuels across the region and RH values
forecast to fall to 10-15%, this is expected to support at least a
few hours of critical fire weather conditions this afternoon. Brief
periods of critical conditions are also possible farther
south/southwest in the lee of both the Guadalupe Mountains and the
Black Range in New Mexico; however, lower confidence in an extended
duration of overlap between wind/RH criteria as well as increasing
high cloud cover throughout the day precludes the addition of
Critical highlights at this time.
Sustained southwesterly winds of 15-20 mph overlapping minimum RH
values of 10-20% will promote elevated fire weather concerns across
adjacent areas of the southern/central High Plains. Portions of the
northern and eastern edges of the Elevated highlights were trimmed
from areas that saw more appreciable rainfall accumulations today.
..Chalmers.. 04/02/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
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