RSS Mesoscale Discussions from Storm Prediction Center
No watches are valid as of Sat Nov 22 07:31:02 UTC 2025.
No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Sat Nov 22 07:31:02 UTC 2025.
SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1057 PM CST Fri Nov 21 2025
Valid 221200Z - 231200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Scattered thunderstorms are possible across much of the Southwest,
mainly from late in the day into the overnight. Limited activity may
occur over North Carolina and southern Virginia. Severe thunderstorm
potential appears low.
...Synopsis and Discussion...
An upper low will move across northern Baja CA today, and will
gradually weaken as it moves into AZ by Sunday morning. Cooling
aloft with this system along with midlevel moistening will
eventually result in widespread precipitation over much of AZ and
NM, including a few thunderstorms. Given the elevated nature of the
instability overnight, severe storms are not anticipated.
To the east, a low-amplitude upper trough will move across VA and NC
during the day. Low pressure near the DelMarVa will quickly move out
to sea as a cold front pushes south out of VA and into NC. Here,
residual dewpoints near 60 F along with daytime heating will result
in minimal SBCAPE within a westerly flow regime, possibly supporting
isolated thunderstorms late afternoon or evening. Strong deep-layer
shear will support cellular storm mode, but instability and lapse
rates do not appear to favor severe hail.
..Jewell/Halbert.. 11/22/2025
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SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1236 AM CST Sat Nov 22 2025
Valid 231200Z - 241200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF WEST TEXAS INTO NORTH-CENTRAL TEXAS...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of
northern Texas to the Rio Grande on Sunday. Large hail is the
primary threat.
...Synopsis...
A mid-level trough will move from the Southwest to the central
Plains on Sunday. Lee troughing is forecast along the High Plains
during the day Sunday with a weak cyclone likely to develop near the
Oklahoma Panhandle by 12Z Monday. A warm front will only slowly
advance north across Texas during the day, but will advance north
more aggressively after 00Z.
...West Texas into north-central Texas...
As the mid-level trough advances east on Sunday, a low-level jet
will strengthen across Texas. This will lead to increasing
isentropic ascent and thunderstorm coverage during the day. Moderate
instability, paired with moderate shear and steepening mid-level
lapse rates may result in an environment which supports isolated
large hail from a few elevated supercells. However, stronger storm
coverage may be somewhat limited during the day.
Greater coverage is anticipated Sunday night as stronger height
falls overspread the southern Plains. Isolated large hail will be
the primary threat, but a few damaging wind gusts may be possible if
storms grow upscale and move into the surface-based warm sector late
in the period as it starts to move northward more quickly.
..Bentley.. 11/22/2025
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SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1257 AM CST Sat Nov 22 2025
Valid 221200Z - 231200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
...Synopsis...
No fire-weather concerns are anticipated Saturday.
With recent widespread wetting rainfall, cooler temperatures, and
generally weak surface winds, conditions supporting wildfire
ignition and spread will largely be absent.
..Halbert.. 11/22/2025
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
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SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1258 AM CST Sat Nov 22 2025
Valid 231200Z - 241200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
...Synopsis...
There are no fire-weather concerns anticipated for Sunday. A
progressive trough will bring precipitation from the southern
Rockies into the southern Great Plains, while the rest of the
Continental U.S. will experience cooler temperatures and weak
surface winds, limiting the potential for wildfire ignition and
spread.
..Halbert.. 11/22/2025
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
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