RSS Mesoscale Discussions from Storm Prediction Center
No watches are valid as of Sat Dec 27 15:40:02 UTC 2025.
No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Sat Dec 27 15:40:02 UTC 2025.
SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0628 AM CST Sat Dec 27 2025
Valid 271300Z - 281200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not forecast through tonight across the
contiguous United States.
...Synopsis...
Water-vapor imagery this morning shows an upper trough over the
West. This upper feature will move east and reach the Dakotas and
central Rockies by early Sunday morning. Ahead of this trough,
upper ridging will occur over the MS/OH Valleys with a warm conveyor
focused over the lower MO Valley. Low 60s F dewpoints will stream
north out of the southern Plains and lower MS Valley toward the
lower MO/Mid MS Valley late and ahead of an approaching cold front
pushing southeast into the KS/IA vicinity.
Weak instability is forecast to gradually develop tonight over the
lower MO/mid MS Valley with an increase in showers and isolated
thunderstorms evolving primarily after midnight. Despite strong
effective shear, current thinking is storm intensity will be limited
with the elevated storm activity and hail potential will remain sub
severe.
..Smith/Weinman.. 12/27/2025
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SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0938 AM CST Sat Dec 27 2025
Valid 271700Z - 281200Z
The previous forecast largely remains on track. The only change was
to expand the elevated area slightly to the south and east.
A weak/diffuse dryline will develop this afternoon to the south of a
weak surface low developing across southeast Colorado and southwest
Kansas. To the west of the dryline, modest drying of the low levels
associated with gusty downslope flow will support minimum RH in the
upper-teens to mid-twenties. This, when coupled with gusty afternoon
winds, will support a few hours of elevated to perhaps locally
critical fire weather conditions.
..Marsh.. 12/27/2025
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1126 PM CST Fri Dec 26 2025/
...Synopsis...
An upper-level ridge over the central CONUS will gradually shift
east throughout the day, while an upper-level trough enters the
Northern Rockies and impinges on western periphery of the ridge.
This process will promote a tightening of the height gradient aloft
and enhancement of the flow, from the southern High Plains into the
central Great Plains. At the surface, a combination of lee
cyclogenesis and diurnally driven mixing west of a developing dry
line should allow for a few hours of Elevated fire-weather
conditions to develop. Sustained winds of 15-20 mph and RH values
into the low to mid 20s will be possible across portions of the
TX/OK Panhandles and vicinity where prolonged arid conditions have
led to dry/receptive fuels.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
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