RSS Mesoscale Discussions from Storm Prediction Center
No watches are valid as of Fri Mar 13 10:24:02 UTC 2026.
MD 0236 CONCERNING HEAVY SNOW FOR PARTS OF UPPER MI...NORTHERN LOWER MI...AND FAR NORTHEASTERN WI
Mesoscale Discussion 0236
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0206 AM CDT Fri Mar 13 2026
Areas affected...Parts of Upper MI...northern Lower MI...and far
northeastern WI
Concerning...Heavy snow
Valid 130706Z - 131100Z
SUMMARY...Heavy snow with rates around 1 inch per hour (locally
higher) are expected through the early morning.
DISCUSSION...Within the base of a compact shortwave trough moving
eastward across MN, water-vapor imagery and VWP data indicate a
robust jet streak (around 100 kt at 6 km per VWP data) impinging on
WI. In response, a northwest/southeast-oriented frontogenetic zone
is evolving slowly northeastward across WI, Upper MI, and northern
Lower MI. Forcing for ascent is being maximized along/immediately
north of this zone, where cold/deeply saturated profiles and the
focused ascent are favoring a band of moderate to heavy snow. The
strong/focused ascent within a deep/saturated DGZ will continue to
favor heavy snowfall rates around 1 inch per hour, though locally
higher rates to around 2 inches per hour are possible under the core
of the band translating northeastward across Upper MI into northern
Lower MI through the early morning hours.
..Weinman.. 03/13/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...DTX...APX...GRR...MQT...GRB...
LAT...LON 44318652 45258770 46658930 47168927 47518865 47538779
47038636 46598548 45838455 45048402 44518375 43928393
43598463 43778565 44318652
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SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0226 AM CDT Fri Mar 13 2026
Valid 151200Z - 161200Z
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTHEAST
ARKANSAS INTO INDIANA...
...SUMMARY...
Potential for a widespread damaging wind event along with a few
tornadoes exists from Sunday afternoon through Sunday night from
northeast Texas to southwest Lower Michigan. The greatest threat
appears to be from northeast Arkansas into Indiana during the
evening and overnight hours.
...Discussion...
On Sunday, a powerful upper trough will move across the Plains
during the day, with a strong midlevel speed max nosing into MO by
00Z. Shortly thereafter and over the next 12 hours, the trough will
rapidly deepen, with an intense mid and high level jet developing
across AR, MO, IL and IN.
At the surface, low pressure is forecast to move across northern MO
and into IL, with a prominent cold front extending southwestward
across MO western AR, and northeast TX. Low-level moisture quality
will gradually improve throughout the period, with mid 50s F into
southern MO by 00Z and as far north as IN and OH by 12Z Monday
morning.
Initial activity will occur along the cold front during the late
afternoon where instability will be strongest, perhaps as high as
1000 J/kg from AR into TX. It should be noted that substantial
variability exists among models regarding instability and capping,
though strong ascent near the front should mitigate these factors.
Hail and damaging gusts may occur with the late afternoon activity.
Of greatest concern is potential for a severe squall line capable of
widespread wind damage, along with a few tornadoes, developing
during the evening across northeast AR, southeast MO, much of
southern IL, central and southern IN, western KY and TN. The shear
environment will be rapidly increasing during this time, and while
forecast soundings show low levels of instability, it will be more
than sufficient to sustain a strongly forced QLCS, producing
corridors of significant wind damage and a few embedded tornadoes.
Southerly winds at 850 mb along the front may exceed 70 kt, with a
very strong frontal surge out of the west.
The envelope of greatest threat will likely shift in later outlooks
as the event nears and predictability increases.
..Jewell.. 03/13/2026
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Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0358 AM CDT Fri Mar 13 2026
Valid 161200Z - 211200Z
...DISCUSSION...
Significant severe winds and the potential for a few tornadoes will
develop on Monday over parts of the Carolinas and Mid Atlantic.
Models are in good agreement with the large scale pattern on
Monday/D4, depicting a deep upper trough moving out of the
Mississippi Valley and ejecting in negative-tilt fashion across the
Mid Atlantic and into to the Northeast.
Given the antecedent upper ridging on the previous day, low-level
southerly winds will help to moisten the air mass well ahead of an
approaching cold front. By 12Z Monday, 60s F dewpoints will already
extend from northern GA across the Piedmont and into southeast VA,
and this plume of moisture will rapidly spread north with near 60 F
dewpoints into southeast PA by 00Z.
There appears to be two regimes for severe potential on Monday.
First, up to 1000 J/kg MUCAPE may develop well ahead of the
approaching cold front, and there is some indication that scattered
convection may occur across the warm sector from mid to late
afternoon. If this occurs, supercells would be most likely, with
potential for a few tornadoes from the Carolinas into eastern VA.
Models also indicate an elongated pressure fall/rise couplet, which
when combined with 50-70 kt 850 mb winds and extreme low-level
shear, could easily result in a QLCS along the cold front with
corridors of significant damaging winds and embedded tornado risk.
Beyond Monday/D4, stable air behind this system will likely preclude
any severe threat through Friday/D8.
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SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0148 AM CDT Fri Mar 13 2026
Valid 131200Z - 141200Z
...Synopsis...
Dry and breezy downslope winds will be likely across portions of the
southern High Plains today. Overlap of relative humidity around
10-15% with sustained west-northwesterly winds around 10-15 mph and
receptive fuels will support a broad area of Elevated fire concerns
in the lee of the higher terrain from eastern Wyoming to New Mexico
and east in NE, KS, OK Panhandle. A few more favored downslope
locations in the immediate lee of the terrain across central New
Mexico and south-central Colorado will see locally Critical
conditions at times. For now, this area remains too localized for
inclusion of Critical areas.
..Thornton.. 03/13/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
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SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0151 AM CDT Fri Mar 13 2026
Valid 141200Z - 151200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR CENTRAL/EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND
PORTIONS OF WEST TEXAS...
...Synopsis...
A shortwave trough will move southward across the Pacific Northwest
into the Northern Rockies on D2/Saturday. As westerly flow develops
across the Rockies, strong lee cyclone development is likely on
D2/Saturday across the Nebraska Panhandle. As a result, westerly
surface gradients will strengthen across the central/southern High
Plains. Very strong/dry downslope flow is expected to develop,
particularly across eastern New Mexico into far western Texas. In
this region, sustained westerly surface winds 15-20 mph will overlap
relative humidity reductions to 10-15 percent. This in combination
with dry fuels will support maintaining Critical fire areas for
Saturday. Broader Elevated fire weather concerns are expected to
extend into eastern Colorado and far southeastern Wyoming/western
Nebraska. The immediate area in the lee of the higher terrain in
eastern Colorado may see locally Critical conditions. This area may
need to be included in further outlooks if trends increase or
confidence in mountain wave activity increases. Elevated to locally
critical fire weather conditions are likely to persist overnight on
portions of the southern and central High Plains.
Elevated to critical meteorological conditions will extend into
portions of western New Mexico and Arizona. For now, fuels in this
region are not supportive but this event will work to precondition
fuels amid temperatures well above normal.
..Thornton.. 03/13/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
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