RSS Mesoscale Discussions from Storm Prediction Center
No watches are valid as of Tue Feb 10 10:53:01 UTC 2026.
No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Tue Feb 10 10:53:01 UTC 2026.
SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0134 AM CST Tue Feb 10 2026
Valid 121200Z - 131200Z
...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are not expected on Thursday.
...Synopsis...
Upper level ridging will persist across central portions of the
CONUS on Thursday. Meanwhile, northwesterly flow aloft will
overspread the eastern states and an upper trough will move across
CA toward northwest Mexico. Lee low development is forecast across
the central/southern High Plains, supporting southerly low-level
flow across the western Gulf. Modest moisture will spread across
parts of the south-central U.S. in response, mainly after 00z.
However, upper ridging and surface high pressure across most of the
rest of the CONUS will preclude thunderstorm activity as stable
conditions prevail.
..Leitman.. 02/10/2026
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Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0301 AM CST Tue Feb 10 2026
Valid 131200Z - 181200Z
...DISCUSSION...
...Days 4-6/Fri-Sun -- TX into the Southeast...
An upper trough is forecast to spread eastward from the Southwest
into the Southeast Days 4-6/Fri-Sun. Beginning on Day 4/Friday,
southwesterly flow will overspread the southern Plains ahead of the
trough and surface low pressure is expected to develop over western
TX. As the system spreads east through the weekend, Gulf moisture
(upper 50s to low 60s F dewpoints) will overspread much of central
to eastern TX toward the Lower MS Valley and Deep South. Some model
spread persists with regards to the timing of eastward progression
of the upper trough, and exact latitude of the surface low (some
guidance clustering further south, other guidance a bit further
north), which will impact quality of moisture return. Regardless, at
least weak destabilization should accompany boundary layer
moistening and cooling aloft amid strengthening deep-layer
southwesterly flow.
Some low-end severe potential is possible from Friday evening
through Saturday across portions of TX, and into the Lower MS
Valley/Deep South Saturday night through Sunday. However, overall
severe potential will likely be limited by weak destabilization, a
somewhat cool boundary layer, and questionable moisture return this
early in the season, precluding 15 percent severe delineation.
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SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0144 AM CST Tue Feb 10 2026
Valid 101200Z - 111200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
...Synopsis...
Upper ridging will prevail over the Rockies as a broad mid-level
trough traverses the Northeast, and a second upper trough
overspreads the West Coast today. Surface high pressure and an
associated cooler airmass will overspread much of the CONUS east of
the Rockies, and is expected to limit wildfire-spread potential.
..Squitieri.. 02/10/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
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SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0145 AM CST Tue Feb 10 2026
Valid 111200Z - 121200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
...Synopsis...
Upper ridging will persist over the Plains as a mid-level trough
amplifies off of the East Coast, and another upper trough impinges
on the Southwest tomorrow (Wednesday). Surface high pressure will
remain in place east of the Mississippi River, with surface
troughing and some moist return flow likely over the Plains. The
overall large-scale pattern suggests that quiescent fire weather
conditions will be the norm across the CONUS on Wednesday, with no
fire weather highlights needed.
..Squitieri.. 02/10/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
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