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  Wednesday March 11, 2026

RSS Mesoscale Discussions from Storm Prediction Center

SPC Tornado Watch 48

WW 48 TORNADO AL LA MS CW 112355Z - 120700Z
      
WW 0048 Image

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Tornado Watch Number 48
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
655 PM CDT Wed Mar 11 2026

The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

* Tornado Watch for portions of 
  West-Central and Southwest Alabama
  Southeast Louisiana
  Southern and Southeast Mississippi
  Coastal Waters

* Effective this Wednesday night and Thursday morning from 655 PM
  until 200 AM CDT.

* Primary threats include...
  A couple tornadoes possible
  Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely
  Isolated large hail events to 1 inch in diameter possible

SUMMARY...An organizing band of strong to severe thunderstorms is
forecast to move east across the Watch this evening into the early
overnight hours.  Damaging straight-line winds and a tornado risk
will probably accompany the more intense portions of the squall
line.  Additionally, a couple of supercells ahead of the band are
also possible and may yield an all hazard risk.

The tornado watch area is approximately along and 100 statute miles
east and west of a line from 45 miles northeast of Meridian MS to 25
miles southwest of Houma LA. For a complete depiction of the watch
see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU8).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for
tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch
area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for
threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements
and possible warnings.

&&

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 45...WW 47...

AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail
surface and aloft to 1 inch. Extreme turbulence and surface wind
gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 450. Mean
storm motion vector 24035.

...Smith

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SPC Tornado Watch 48 Status Reports

WW 0048 Status Updates
      
WW 0048 Status Image

STATUS REPORT ON WW 48

SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SW HUM TO
15 WNW ASD TO 15 S MEI TO 30 SSW TCL.

..KERR..03/12/26

ATTN...WFO...MOB...BMX...LIX...JAN...


STATUS REPORT FOR WT 48 

SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS 

ALC023-025-047-065-091-097-105-129-131-120440-

AL 
.    ALABAMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

CHOCTAW              CLARKE              DALLAS              
HALE                 MARENGO             MOBILE              
PERRY                WASHINGTON          WILCOX              


LAC051-057-071-075-087-089-103-109-120440-

LA 
.    LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE

JEFFERSON            LAFOURCHE           ORLEANS             
PLAQUEMINES          ST. BERNARD         ST. CHARLES         
ST. TAMMANY          TERREBONNE          


MSC023-035-039-041-045-047-059-109-111-131-153-120440-

MS 
.    MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

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SPC Severe Thunderstorm Watch 47 Status Reports

WW 0047 Status Updates
      
WW 0047 Status Image

STATUS REPORT ON WW 47

SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SE ACY TO
25 ENE DOV TO 10 E TTN TO 20 SSW JFK.

..KERR..03/12/26

ATTN...WFO...PHI...LWX...


STATUS REPORT FOR WS 47 

SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS 

NJC001-005-007-025-029-120240-

NJ 
.    NEW JERSEY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

ATLANTIC             BURLINGTON          CAMDEN              
MONMOUTH             OCEAN               


THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY.  PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.

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SPC Severe Thunderstorm Watch 46 Status Reports

WW 0046 Status Updates
      
WW 0046 Status Image

STATUS REPORT ON WW 46

SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SW HSV TO
30 WSW CSV.

..KERR..03/11/26

ATTN...WFO...HUN...OHX...


STATUS REPORT FOR WS 46 

SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS 

ALC089-103-112340-

AL 
.    ALABAMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

MADISON              MORGAN              


TNC035-049-051-112340-

TN 
.    TENNESSEE COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

CUMBERLAND           FENTRESS            FRANKLIN            


THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY.  PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.

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SPC Tornado Watch 45 Status Reports

WW 0045 Status Updates
      
WW 0045 Status Image

STATUS REPORT ON WW 45

SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SSE HLG
TO 30 SSE LBE TO 20 N AOO.

REMAINING VALID PORTION OF WW MAY BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 12/00Z.

..KERR..03/11/26

ATTN...WFO...LWX...PBZ...CTP...


STATUS REPORT FOR WT 45 

SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS 

MDC001-005-013-021-023-025-027-031-043-510-120000-

MD 
.    MARYLAND COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

ALLEGANY             BALTIMORE           CARROLL             
FREDERICK            GARRETT             HARFORD             
HOWARD               MONTGOMERY          WASHINGTON          




MARYLAND INDEPENDENT CITIES INCLUDED ARE

BALTIMORE CITY       


PAC001-009-013-037-041-043-051-055-057-059-061-067-071-075-087-
093-097-099-107-109-111-133-120000-

PA 
.    PENNSYLVANIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

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SPC MD 226

MD 0226 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 48... FOR PARTS OF SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA AND MISSISSIPPI AND SOUTHWESTERN ALABAMA
MD 0226 Image


Mesoscale Discussion 0226
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0939 PM CDT Wed Mar 11 2026

Areas affected...parts of southeastern Louisiana and Mississippi and
southwestern Alabama

Concerning...Tornado Watch 48...

Valid 120239Z - 120445Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 48 continues.

SUMMARY...Occasional brief tornadoes and locally damaging wind gusts
will remain possible with a cluster of storms overspreading the
region through midnight-2 AM CDT.

DISCUSSION...The organized convective system, with at least a couple
of embedded meso beta scale lower/mid-tropospheric cyclonic
circulations and occasionally intensifying meso gamma scale cyclonic
circulations closer to the surface, is generally being maintained. 
This is likely being supported by inflow of boundary-layer based
CAPE up to around 1000 J/kg, within a narrow corridor of better
low-level moisture return roughly aligned with a 30-35 kt
southwesterly 850 mb jet nosing inland of the Gulf coast.   

It appears that this corridor of destabilization and enlarged
low-level hodographs will persist and develop east-northeastward
across southeastern Mississippi through southwestern Alabama into
the 05-07Z time frame, with the eastward progression of the
mid-level short wave across Louisiana.  As long as this continues,
occasional brief tornadoes and locally damaging wind gusts will
remain possible.

..Kerr.. 03/12/2026

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BMX...MOB...JAN...LIX...

LAT...LON   31048942 31798881 32418644 30388840 29389041 29749105
            30478989 31048942 

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN

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SPC Mar 12, 2026 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
      
Day 1 Outlook Image
Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0754 PM CDT Wed Mar 11 2026

Valid 120100Z - 121200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC AND OVER MUCH OF THE GULF STATES...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms are expected tonight from
the Gulf Coast into parts of the Mid-Atlantic.

...01z Update...

Middle Atlantic: Narrow corridor of yet-to-be overturned instability
extends across eastern WV into the Middle Atlantic. Several short
line segments have developed ahead of the primary short wave, but
the leading convection over eastern MD/northern DE into NJ is the
primary concern, as this activity has a bit more buoyancy to work
with than the trailing convection across central PA into western WV.
Strong deep-layer shear remains favorable for organized storms to
spread across this region over the next few hours before ingesting
cooler marine layer near the Atlantic coast.

Gulf States: Expansive MCS has evolved over the lower MS Valley
early this evening. This complex has developed ahead of a
low-latitude upper low over south central TX that is becoming more
negative tilt with time. Exit region of midlevel jet will translate
along the Gulf coast overnight, and this will encourage eastward
propagation through sunrise. 00z sounding from LIX exhibited strong
shear, but a substantial warm layer is noted around 4-5km. This warm
layer should gradually cool as the aforementioned upper low advances
east tonight.

..Darrow.. 03/12/2026

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