RSS Mesoscale Discussions from Storm Prediction Center
No watches are valid as of Mon Feb 9 20:55:01 UTC 2026.
No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Mon Feb 9 20:55:01 UTC 2026.
SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0144 PM CST Mon Feb 09 2026
Valid 092000Z - 101200Z
...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorm potential appears negligible through tonight.
...20Z Update...
No changes to the ongoing forecast.
..Wendt.. 02/09/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0951 AM CST Mon Feb 09 2026/
...MT/ID/WY...
A relatively dry and stable environment will preclude thunderstorm
activity across the CONUS today. The one area of some risk is over
parts of MT/ID/WY ahead of a series of shortwave troughs moving
across the region. Lift and cold temperatures aloft could result in
isolated lightning, but coverage is expected to remain below 10%.
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SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1118 AM CST Mon Feb 09 2026
Valid 101200Z - 111200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Tuesday.
...Synopsis...
The mid-level pattern will amplify on Tuesday with a trough
developing over the Great Lakes and a building ridge across the
western CONUS. A mid-level shortwave trough beneath this ridge will
move from northern Mexico into West Texas. Another mid-level
shortwave trough will deepen as it approaches the California coast.
Surface high pressure will build across the central CONUS on Tuesday
with a surface low moving from the Great Lakes to New England and
another surface low off the California coast.
As a mid-level trough overspreads West Texas on Tuesday, mid-level
temperatures will cool. This will result in mostly weak instability
and scattered thunderstorm potential. No severe weather is expected
with this activity.
Isolated to potentially scattered thunderstorms are expected across
central California Tuesday evening to early Wednesday as weak
instability develops with cooling temperatures aloft with the
approaching mid-level shortwave trough.
Weak elevated instability may support some convection across the
Tennessee region Tuesday evening and into the overnight hours amid
weak isentropic ascent and a southward moving frontal zone. Forecast
soundings show a relatively shallow unstable layer which may not be
sufficient for any charge separation. Even if lightning occurs, it
should be very isolated/sparse given the forecast thermodynamic
profiles.
..Bentley.. 02/09/2026
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SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1244 PM CST Mon Feb 09 2026
Valid 111200Z - 121200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
No severe thunderstorms are expected on Wednesday.
...Discussion...
An amplifying ridge across the central CONUS and building surface
high pressure east of the Rockies will limit thunderstorm potential
on Wednesday. Some lingering isolated thunderstorms will be possible
along the central California coast on Wednesday morning, beneath the
upper low. However, once it moves inland, it appears
moisture/instability will be too limited for a sustained
thunderstorm threat.
..Bentley.. 02/09/2026
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SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1031 AM CST Mon Feb 09 2026
Valid 091700Z - 101200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR FOR PORTIONS OF FAR SOUTHEASTERN
WYOMING INTO FAR WESTERN NEBRASKA...
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR FOR PORTIONS OF FAR NORTHEASTERN
NEW MEXICO INTO THE OKLAHOMA AND TEXAS PANHANDLES...EXTREME
NORTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA,FAR SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS...
...Southern High Plains...
Several hours of widespread elevated and critical fire weather
conditions are expected across the Southern High Plains this
afternoon. Current guidance is still on track for strong
west-southwesterly winds of 20-25 mph gusting to 40 mph in some
areas and RH decreasing to 10-15 percent atop a dry fuelscape. An
expansion of the Elevated area was added along the southern
foothills of Colorado to include a corridor of strong winds and low
RH overlapping potentially receptive fuels.
...Central High Plains...
Increased mid-level cloud cover and passage of a cold front across
eastern Wyoming and northern Nebraska this afternoon may inhibit
deeper mixing and limit the temporal extent of more critical fire
weather conditions. However, a few hours of dry and breezy
conditions atop dry fuels should still support fire weather concerns
today. The Elevated and Critical areas are unchanged, see the
previous discussion for more information.
..Elizalde-Garcia/Lyons.. 02/09/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0115 AM CST Mon Feb 09 2026/
...Synopsis...
Broad upper ridging will overspread the central and eastern CONUS
today, with a pronounced mid-level impulse poised to crest the ridge
over the central Plains. An elongated surface low will form over the
central Plains, with dry northwesterly flow overspreading parts of
the central Plains within a post-cold frontal regime, and dry
downslope flow occurring ahead of a surface trough over the southern
High Plains. Over both areas, the dry and windy surface conditions
will foster wildfire-spread potential.
...Central High Plains...
Guidance differs somewhat regarding how dry the surface airmass will
become by afternoon peak heating behind the cold front over the
central High Plains. Nonetheless, RH may dip as low as 15-20 percent
amid 20-25 mph sustained northwesterly surface winds, atop drying
fuels. Even if RH does not reach Critical thresholds, the stronger
post-cold frontal winds atop dry fuels should compensate to support
wildfire spread.
...Southern High Plains...
By afternoon peak heating, dry downslope flow, in combination with a
very deep and dry boundary layer, will support RH dipping into the
10-15 percent range as sustained west-southwesterly surface winds
exceed 20 mph for several hours. The current guidance consensus
still depicts the best corridor for Critical conditions over
northeastern New Mexico into the Oklahoma/Texas Panhandles and
immediate surrounding areas. Given guidance consistency in such
conditions and continued drying fuels, Critical highlights have been
maintained.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
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SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1252 PM CST Mon Feb 09 2026
Valid 101200Z - 111200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
...19z Update...
No changes, see the previous discussion for more information.
..Elizalde-Garcia/Lyons.. 02/09/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0148 AM CST Mon Feb 09 2026/
...Synopsis...
An upper ridge will amplify over the Rockies as a mid-level trough
progresses over the Great Lakes toward the Northeast tomorrow
(Tuesday). This upper-air pattern will aid in driving a surface cold
front southward across the central into the southern CONUS through
the period, reinforced by surface high pressure. As a result, a
relatively cooler and moist low-level airmass will overspread the
Plains, limiting significant wildfire-spread potential.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
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