RSS Mesoscale Discussions from Storm Prediction Center
WW 390 SEVERE TSTM KS NE 250005Z - 250700Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 390
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
705 PM CDT Wed Jun 24 2026
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of
Northwest and North-Central Kansas
Southwest and South-Central Nebraska
* Effective this Wednesday night and Thursday morning from 705 PM
until 200 AM CDT.
* Primary threats include...
Scattered damaging winds and isolated significant gusts to 75
mph possible
Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 3
inches in diameter possible
A tornado or two possible
SUMMARY...Thunderstorm coverage is expected to increase this evening
across southwest/south-central Nebraska and northwest/north-central
Kansas. Strong buoyancy and vertical shear will support the
potential for large to very large hail over the next few hours when
a more cellular mode is favored. A low-probability tornado risk
exists during this time period as well. Thereafter, a trend towards
a more linear storm mode is possible, with the primary severe threat
transitioning to strong gusts. Isolated gusts may approach 75 mph.
The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 75
statute miles north and south of a line from 25 miles west northwest
of Imperial NE to 55 miles south southeast of Kearney NE. For a
complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline
update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU0).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.
&&
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 387...WW 388...WW 389...
AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
3 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 65 knots. A
few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector
29020.
...Mosier
Read more
WW 389 TORNADO CO NE WY 242150Z - 250500Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Tornado Watch Number 389
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
350 PM MDT Wed Jun 24 2026
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Tornado Watch for portions of
Northeast Colorado
Nebraska Panhandle
East-Central and Southeast Wyoming
* Effective this Wednesday afternoon and evening from 350 PM
until 1100 PM MDT.
* Primary threats include...
A couple tornadoes possible
Scattered damaging winds and isolated significant gusts to 75
mph likely
Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 3.5
inches in diameter likely
SUMMARY...Supercell thunderstorms are expected to develop within the
very unstable and strongly sheared environment in place across the
region this afternoon and evening. Environmental conditions support
the potential for a few tornadoes within any mature supercells, with
very large hail up to 3.5" in diameter possible as well. Over time,
one or more bowing segments could materialize, with an attendant
risk for severe gusts up to 75 mph.
The tornado watch area is approximately along and 60 statute miles
east and west of a line from 15 miles southwest of Limon CO to 35
miles east northeast of Douglas WY. For a complete depiction of the
watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU9).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for
tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch
area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for
threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements
and possible warnings.
&&
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 387...WW 388...
AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail
surface and aloft to 3.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind
gusts to 65 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean
storm motion vector 29015.
...Mosier
Read more
WW 388 SEVERE TSTM CO NM 242055Z - 250400Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 388
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
255 PM MDT Wed Jun 24 2026
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of
Southeast Colorado
Eastern New Mexico
* Effective this Wednesday afternoon and evening from 255 PM
until 1000 PM MDT.
* Primary threats include...
Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2
inches in diameter possible
Isolated damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible
SUMMARY...Strong to severe thunderstorms will continue to develop
across eastern New Mexico into southeast Colorado including near the
Raton Mesa and I-25/I-40 corridors. Large hail and some
severe-caliber wind gusts are the primary hazards through
early/mid-evening.
The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 55
statute miles east and west of a line from 25 miles northeast of
Colorado Springs CO to 105 miles south southwest of Tucumcari NM.
For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch
outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU8).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.
&&
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 387...
AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A
few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 550. Mean storm motion vector
24035.
...Guyer
Read more
WW 387 SEVERE TSTM IA IL MN WI 241855Z - 250300Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 387
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
155 PM CDT Wed Jun 24 2026
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of
Eastern Iowa
Northern Illinois
Southeast Minnesota
Wisconsin
* Effective this Wednesday afternoon and evening from 155 PM
until 1000 PM CDT.
* Primary threats include...
Scattered large hail likely with isolated very large hail events
to 2 inches in diameter possible
Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible
A tornado or two possible
SUMMARY...Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms will further
develop through mid/late afternoon with bouts of severe hail and
damaging winds as the primary hazards.
The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 80
statute miles east and west of a line from 50 miles north northeast
of Wausau WI to 35 miles east southeast of Moline IL. For a complete
depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update
(WOUS64 KWNS WOU7).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.
&&
AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A
few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector
28025.
...Guyer
Read more
WW 0390 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0390 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET
Read more
WW 0389 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0389 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET
Read more
WW 0388 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0388 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET
Read more
WW 0387 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 387
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SSE MLI
TO 20 ESE DBQ TO 35 SW MSN TO 30 S CWA TO 5 S CWA TO 5 W IMT.
..CHALMERS..06/24/26
ATTN...WFO...ARX...DVN...LOT...GRB...MKX...
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 387
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ILC007-011-015-031-037-043-063-073-085-089-091-093-097-099-103-
105-111-141-155-177-195-197-201-250040-
IL
. ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BOONE BUREAU CARROLL
COOK DE KALB DUPAGE
GRUNDY HENRY JO DAVIESS
KANE KANKAKEE KENDALL
LAKE LA SALLE LEE
LIVINGSTON MCHENRY OGLE
PUTNAM STEPHENSON WHITESIDE
WILL WINNEBAGO
WIC009-015-021-025-027-039-045-047-055-059-071-075-077-078-079-
083-087-089-097-101-105-115-117-127-131-133-135-137-139-
250040-
WI
. WISCONSIN COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BROWN CALUMET COLUMBIA
DANE DODGE FOND DU LAC
Read more
MD 1300 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHWESTERN INDIANA
Mesoscale Discussion 1300
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0634 PM CDT Wed Jun 24 2026
Areas affected...portions of northwestern Indiana
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 242334Z - 250100Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent
SUMMARY...A downstream Severe Thunderstorm Watch appears unlikely at
this time, but trends will continue to be monitored.
DISCUSSION...Latest surface analysis depicts a surface
temperature/thermal gradient in place across portions of northern
Indiana. Despite dense cloud cover, low-level warm, moist air
advection has resulted in temperatures and dewpoints rising into the
mid-70s and low-60s F, respectively, south of this boundary. While
latest objective analysis indicates that buoyancy remains negligible
(less than 250 J/kg MLCAPE) across this area, recent high-res
guidance suggests that weak destabilization may occur south of this
surface boundary over the next 1-2 hours preceding the arrival of
convection currently ongoing across northern/northeastern Illinois.
The overall expectation is for convection to weaken as it
approaches/enters northwestern Indiana owing to the aforementioned
weaker buoyancy and waning diurnal cycle. Thus, downstream watch
issuance appears unlikely at this time. Trends will continue to be
monitored, however, as effective shear of 35-40+ kts may allow a
low-end severe risk to persist into northwestern Indiana.
..Chalmers/Mosier.. 06/24/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...IWX...IND...LOT...
LAT...LON 41088744 41408743 41538714 41528697 41478671 41358647
41178627 40888615 40538617 40378627 40268645 40208697
40318740 40498751 41088744
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN
Read more
SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0259 PM CDT Wed Jun 24 2026
Valid 242000Z - 251200Z
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE GREAT BASIN...HIGH PLAINS AND MIDWEST...
...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected this afternoon and
evening across parts of the central High Plains, with a threat for
large to very large hail, severe wind gusts, and perhaps a couple of
tornadoes. Other severe thunderstorms are expected across parts of
the Midwest and Great Basin.
...20Z Update...
The forecast remains on track, and only minor adjustments were made
with this update. The ENH risk was expanded slightly southeastward
in southwestern NE. Here, diurnal heating amid lower 60s dewpoints
will yield a corridor of moderate surface-based buoyancy, which
combined with 50-60 kt of effective shear, will support the
potential for a couple intense supercells capable of producing very
large hail and severe gusts. The adjacent SLGT risk was also
expanded southeastward into south-central NE and north-central KS,
where upscale-growing clusters will pose a risk for severe wind
gusts with time.
The SLGT risk in eastern NM was expanded westward toward the higher
terrain, given the potential for initially discrete supercell
structures capable of producing large hail.
Finally, a CIG1 wind area was added over portions of the Great
Basin, where a deeply mixed boundary layer and increasing buoyancy
may support some gusts upwards of 75 mph.
..Weinman.. 06/24/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1149 AM CDT Wed Jun 24 2026/
...Central/Southern High Plains...
Post-frontal low-level moisture will remain over the central High
Plains today via low-level upslope flow, which should be most
focused/strongest across southeast Wyoming/northeast Colorado, and
to a lesser extent, the Raton Mesa vicinity. As daytime heating
occurs and low-level clouds present this morning gradually erode,
2000-3000 J/kg of MLCAPE should develop by mid to late afternoon in
a narrow corridor across northeast Colorado into southeast Wyoming.
This instability will also be aided by the presence of steep
mid-level lapse rates.
Thunderstorms should develop this afternoon across much the region
as strong mid-level west-northwesterly flow associated with a
shortwave trough over the northern Plains overspreads the central
Rockies/High Plains. Accordingly, the highest convective coverage is
anticipated from east-central/southeast Wyoming into
northeast/east-central CO, where buoyancy should be maximized.
Deep-layer shear will be rather strong, with values up to 50-60 kt.
These conditions will support the potential for intense supercells
capable of large to very large hail (isolated 2-4 inches in diameter
possible). Notable low-level curvature of the hodograph could
support a couple of tornadoes in this region as well. Eventual
upscale growth into a southeastward-moving MCS capable of producing
severe winds is probable into eastern Colorado/western Kansas this
evening, with some 75+ mph gusts possible.
Lower thunderstorm coverage is anticipated farther south into the
southern High Plains, with warmer temperatures and higher cloud
bases suggesting a predominantly outflow-dominant mode. Strong to
severe gusts will be the primary risk, although isolated hail may
also occur.
...Midwest including portions of Wisconsin/northern Illinois...
A belt of 40-50 kt westerly mid-level flow will overspread Wisconsin
and northern Illinois today as a weak shortwave trough moves across
the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes through the period. Seasonably
cool temperatures aloft will aid up to around 1000-1500 J/kg of
MLCAPE through peak afternoon heating along/ahead of a weak cold
front. Current expectations are for scattered to numerous
thunderstorms to develop this afternoon with moderate to locally
strong deep-layer shear providing support for updraft organization.
A mix of multicells and supercells should pose a threat for severe
hail and damaging winds, and possibly some tornado risk, as they
spread east-southeastward through the afternoon and evening before
eventually weakening.
...Great Basin/Four Corners...
Current surface observations indicate rather dry conditions across
the Great Basin/Four Corners regions this morning. Still, greater
low/mid-level moisture is forecast to advect northeastward through
the day as a weak mid-level shortwave trough advances
east-northeastward from the lower Colorado River Valley across the
Great Basin. The boundary layer is expected to become very well
mixed with strong daytime heating that will occur this afternoon,
with weak instability present. Modestly enhanced mid-level flow will
aid in northeastward thunderstorm motions, and some potential exists
for strong/gusty outflow winds across a large area this afternoon
and early evening.
...Southern Plains into the Lower Mississippi Valley...
Thunderstorms should increase/re-intensify regionally this
afternoon, aided by multiple MCVs interacting with a convectively
augmented front that extends northwest-southeastward regionally.
Deep-layer flow and related shear should remain rather modest.
Isolated hail and damaging winds may occur with the strongest cores
that form, but the potential for more organized clusters is
uncertain. Influenced by prior/modifying outflow, at least a
conditional-type risk for supercell redevelopment later today is
most probable across portions of southern/eastern Oklahoma toward
the ArkLaTex.
...Florida...
After mostly clear skies this morning, cumulus field continues to
increase within a very moist air mass to the south of a front across
the northern Florida Peninsula, with low to mid 70s F warm-sector
surface dewpoints. While low/mid-level winds will remain weak today,
cool mid-level temperatures and ample daytime heating will support
the development of moderate to locally strong instability this
afternoon. Scattered to numerous pulse-type thunderstorms are
expected to develop across the interior Florida Peninsula and
Atlantic Coast sea breeze, with occasional damaging winds possible
given steepened low-level lapse rates.
Read more
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0235 PM CDT Wed Jun 24 2026
Valid 251200Z - 261200Z
...Afternoon Update...
Elevated fire weather highlights were introduced across the Columbia
Basin in WA/OR. Strong west-southwesterly flow aloft will overspread
the Pacific Northwest as an upper trough approaches the region,
promoting strong downslope winds and dry conditions. Atop cured
grasses and dry fuels, southwesterly sustained winds of 15-20 mph
will combine with 10-15% RH to support Elevated fire weather
concerns. A cold front will push through the Columbia Basin Thursday
evening into the overnight hours, bringing increased precipitation
chances and cooler temperatures.
Across the Four Corners and Great Basin, Isolated Dry Thunderstorm
highlights were maintained. The introduction of a scattered dry
thunderstorm risk area was considered as thunderstorm coverage will
likely be greater than 40%. However, 40% coverage of purely dry
thunderstorms with less than 0.10" of precipitation is less certain,
precluding highlights. Lightning ignitions will pose a concern where
fuels remain dry across the CO Plateau into southwestern WY and far
eastern ID. Additionally, pyrocumulus development remains highly
possible with pyrocumulonimbus not out of the question if surface
heating from fire activity can maintain momentum. Strong/severe
outflow winds are also possible (see the SPC Day 2 Convective
Outlook), further exacerbating any new/ongoing fires. See the
previous discussion for more information.
..Elizalde-Garcia.. 06/24/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1250 AM CDT Wed Jun 24 2026/
...Synopsis...
A sub-tropical moisture plume will continue shifting eastward across
the Interior West by Thursday, focusing both wet and dry
thunderstorm potential from southwestern WY through the Four Corners
region. Scattered to isolated high-based thunderstorms will initiate
across much of the drawn area on Day 2/Thursday afternoon. Depending
on location/elevation and antecedent conditions from the previous
day's convection, this activity will likely present as a mix of wet
and dry storms. Given a dry sub-cloud layer, supportive of
evaporation, the probability of new lightning ignitions over still
receptive fuels will remain at least moderate - especially in areas
that receive less or no rainfall from Day 1/Wednesday.
Simultaneously, farther west, an intensifying trough over the West
will interact with what's left of the ridge over the southwest to
bring dry southwest flow to the western Great Basin. This region
will see dry flow cut underneath the deeper Pacific moisture,
leading to Elevated fire weather conditions where winds will be
southwest to westerly at 15-20 mph amid minimum RHs ranging from
10-20 percent.
While this sub-tropical moisture will briefly temper the severe
dryness over the next couple of days, a much larger concern exists.
Any lightning holdover ignitions from storms today and tomorrow
could rapidly expand later this week. Forecast guidance continues to
show a major, seasonally abnormal trough arriving Friday into
Saturday, bringing widespread and significant critical fire weather
conditions with southwest winds gusting above 40 mph ahead of a
strong cold front.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0459 PM CDT Wed Jun 24 2026
Valid 261200Z - 021200Z
...Synopsis...
A robust fire weather pattern is expected across an expansive
portion of the Intermountain West through the middle of next week.
Preceding dry thunderstorms on Days 1-2/Wednesday-Thursday followed
by multiple days of exceptionally dry and breezy conditions will
promote significant fire weather concerns for any new ignitions,
lightning holdovers, and ongoing large fires across the western
CONUS.
Forecast guidance continues to show a major, seasonally abnormal
trough on Day 3/Friday into Day 5/Sunday, posing considerable fire
weather concerns for the Great Basin and much of the Southwest. A
strong cold front and accompanying wind shift (from broadly
southwesterly to northerly) will push through the region sometime on
Sunday. This wind shift and associated wind gusts may further
exacerbate ongoing wildfires and control efforts, and will be
monitored closely as timing is better resolved in future outlooks.
...Days 3-5/Friday-Sunday...
An unseasonably strong mid-level jet overspreads much of the
Interior West late this week as an upper trough amplifies across the
Northwestern U.S., scouring out remaining meaningful atmospheric
moisture across the Southwest. Latest forecast guidance suggests a
corridor of stronger southwest winds of 25-35 mph developing under
the stronger jet across northern AZ into the Great Basin on Day
3/Friday, shifting to northeastern AZ into the CO Plateau by Day
4/Saturday. The potential for extremely critical fire weather
conditions may exist where single-digit RH and very strong sustained
winds overlap receptive fuels that did not receive appreciable
precipitation earlier in the week. Several days of poor overnight
humidity recoveries and residual gusty winds will further intensify
the fire environment.
Critical fire weather conditions will persist across northern AZ and
the CO Plateau on Day 5/Sunday as the mid-level jet translates
eastward to the northern Plains. Primary changes for this outlook
were the introduction of 70% Critical probabilities on Day 5/Sunday
as confidence continues to increase in an appreciable multi-day wind
event, impacting ongoing wildfire growth and the emergence of any
nascent wildfires born from thunderstorm activity mid-week.
...Days 6-7/Monday-Tuesday...
Elevated southwesterly flow associated with persistent upper-level
troughing across the West should support a prolonged fire weather
threat across the CO Plateau, Great Basin and parts of the
Southwest. As such, 40% Critical probabilities have been maintained.
Fuels are expected to remain quite receptive through the extended
forecast period with minimal-to-no chances of precipitation this
weekend into early next week.
As high pressure builds over the central and eastern CONUS, above
normal temperatures and overall drier conditions may encourage fire
weather concerns to emerge where receptive fuels exist.
..Elizalde-Garcia.. 06/24/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
|
