RSS Mesoscale Discussions from Storm Prediction Center
No watches are valid as of Fri Feb 20 10:01:02 UTC 2026.
No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Fri Feb 20 10:01:02 UTC 2026.
SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook CORR 1
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1145 PM CST Thu Feb 19 2026
Valid 201200Z - 211200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
CORRECTED FOR GENERAL THUNDERSTORM LINES
...SUMMARY...
Widely-scattered thunderstorms may occur today over parts of the
Southeast and Mid Atlantic. Severe storms are not forecast.
...Synopsis/Discussion...
A shortwave trough will move quickly across the Great Lakes and into
the Northeast, with a surface low developing off the coastal Mid
Atlantic. Over land, a cold front will push east across VA and the
Carolinas, with rapid drying from the west. Despite this, a few
showers/thunderstorms will be possible prior to the front moving
offshore. Warm profiles aloft suggest weak storms, but strong
westerlies just off the surface could support gusty winds.
To the south, the tail end of this front will stall in east-west
fashion across LA and southern MS/AL/GA. This boundary will move
northward overnight across parts of MS/AL/GA, with increasing
southwest flow at 850 mb ahead of another wave moving across the
southern Plains. Meanwhile, height tendencies aloft will be neutral.
While showers and a few thunderstorms may occur in this warm
advection regime late in the day and overnight, it appears warm
profiles aloft should reduce hail potential despite strong
deep-layer shear.
..Jewell/Halbert.. 02/20/2026
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SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1228 AM CST Fri Feb 20 2026
Valid 211200Z - 221200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHEAST
ALABAMA AND THE NORTHERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE EAST INTO SOUTHERN SOUTH
CAROLINA...
...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are possible across parts of the eastern Gulf and
south Atlantic coast states Saturday, accompanied by at least some
risk for damaging wind gusts.
... Discussion ...
Strong west/southwest mid-level flow will be in place across the
southern and eastern United States at the start of the forecast
period. A subtle southern stream shortwave trough will amplify on
Saturday as it interacts with this stronger mid-level flow and
approaching northern stream trough.
A remnant frontal boundary will be stretched from southern North
Carolina southwestward toward southeast Texas. A surface low will
develop along this frontal boundary during the day on Saturday in
response to the amplifying mid-level trough before quickly out to
sea by Sunday morning.
Ongoing thunderstorms at the start of the forecast period should
persist through the morning, as the mid-level wave amplifies and
surface low develops. Along and south of the front, modest diurnal
heating will result in an environment with up to 500 to perhaps 1000
J/kg of most unstable CAPE. Long, straight hodographs largely
parallel to the frontal zone should favor small linear/bowing
segments over supercells, despite the strong deep-layer shear
present. A marginal threat for damaging wind gusts will accompany
any sustained thunderstorm segment. A modest low-level jet during
the morning hours may provide enough low-level streamwise vorticity
to support a brief tornado or two. This threat should diminish
during the afternoon as the low-level jet veers and weakens.
..Marsh.. 02/20/2026
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SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0147 AM CST Fri Feb 20 2026
Valid 221200Z - 231200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms will be possible across portions of the Florida
Peninsula during the day on Sunday. A couple of lightning strikes
will also be possible across the Outer Banks of North Carolina.
... Discussion ...
The mid-level pattern will undergo amplification on Sunday as a
strong mid-level low/trough dives southeast from the mid-Mississippi
Valley to off the North Carolina coast and takes on a neutral to
negative tilt. A surface low off the Carolina coast will deepen
rapidly in response to the intensifying large-scale ascent.
Northerly winds on the west side of the deepening surface low will
drive a surface cold front south through the Florida Peninsula,
potentially clearing south Florida by Monday morning. Modest
instability (~500 J/kg) across the central peninsula may support
isolated thunderstorms on Sunday, although warm mid-level
temperatures should temper the overall thunderstorm
potential/coverage.
Elsewhere, an isolated lightning strike or two will be possible
across the Outer Banks of North Carolina as the surface low rapidly
deepens and an intensifying warm conveyor belt results in elevated
instability developing to the west/northwest of the surface low.
Additionally, a few lightning strikes may occur along and off the
coast of the Pacific Northwest as the next upper-trough approaches.
However, coverage should remain sparse enough to preclude the need
for delineation.
..Marsh.. 02/20/2026
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Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0313 AM CST Fri Feb 20 2026
Valid 231200Z - 281200Z
...DISCUSSION...
The forecast period will begin with a highly amplified upper-air
pattern with a ridge over the Rockies and a deep trough over the
eastern US. By the middle of the next week, this mid-level flow
regime will transition to one characterized as broadly northwest
flow from the Pacific Northwest toward the Southeast United States.
This flow regime will help drive a mid-level trough/surface cold
front southeast through the Plains toward the end of next week.
However, limited moisture return ahead of this trough/cold front
should temper any severe potential.
The front is expected to push south into at least the northern Gulf.
This resulting cold/dry air intrusion into the northern Gulf will
limit the potential for appreciable moisture return and subsequent
thunderstorm/severe thunderstorm potential through the rest of the
forecast period.
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SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0118 AM CST Fri Feb 20 2026
Valid 201200Z - 211200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN NEW MEXICO
INTO WEST TEXAS...
...Synopsis...
As a shortwave trough embedded in broader westerly flow progresses
across the southern Rockies into the Southern Great Plains, dry and
breezy downslope winds associated with a developing surface low will
result in widespread Elevated to Critical fire-weather concerns
across portions of eastern New Mexico into the Oklahoma
Panhandle/West Texas. Relative humidity as low as 10-15% (drier with
southward extent) coupled with 20-25 MPH winds will overlap a
variety of fuel conditions, ranging from seasonal 60th percentile
ERCs to 95th percentile. This will support wildfire spread with any
ignitions during the afternoon.
..Halbert.. 02/20/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
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SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0119 AM CST Fri Feb 20 2026
Valid 211200Z - 221200Z
...Synopsis...
A dry and breezy post-frontal airmass associated with a jet maximum
exiting the southern Plains will be responsible for at least
Elevated fire-weather concerns across portions of far southwest
Texas on Saturday. Relative humidity of 15-20% is expected with
northerly surface winds of 15 MPH (gusting to 20). While there is
generally a gradient of fuel readiness across the area, with drier
fuels in the west, these conditions will still pose an Elevated
threat for wildfire ignition and spread during the afternoon.
..Halbert.. 02/20/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
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