RSS Mesoscale Discussions from Storm Prediction Center
No watches are valid as of Wed Nov 19 09:10:02 UTC 2025.
No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Wed Nov 19 09:10:02 UTC 2025.
SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1155 PM CST Tue Nov 18 2025
Valid 191200Z - 201200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO WESTERN PARTS OF THE OZARKS...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe storms are possible across the southern Plains into
western parts of the Ozarks, mainly late this afternoon into
tonight.
...Synopsis...
A deep upper-level trough will move slowly eastward across the
Southwest later today into tonight. Downstream of this system, weak
lee troughing will become established across the southern/central
High Plains. A surface boundary initially draped from north TX into
the ArkLaTex will move northward as a warm front, with rich
boundary-layer moisture spreading into parts of southern/central
OK/AR during the afternoon and evening.
...Southern Plains into western parts of the Ozarks...
A broad region of at least isolated severe potential remains evident
across the southern Plains. Within this region, one or more areas of
locally greater hail potential may evolve, but confidence in the
details is low at this time.
Relatively steep midlevel lapse rates atop dewpoints in the 60s to
near 70 F will result in moderate destabilization along/south of the
warm front by late afternoon. Large-scale ascent appears rather
nebulous into early evening, but isolated storm development cannot
be ruled out by late afternoon, especially in the vicinity of the
warm front. Storm coverage will increase through the evening into
late tonight from southwest into northwest TX and southern OK, as
ascent related to the approaching trough begins to overspread the
region.
Deep-layer shear will be sufficient for at least occasional storm
organization, with isolated supercells possible. Hail is expected to
be the most common hazard, though isolated strong/damaging gusts may
also occur. Regarding tornado potential, a secondary low-level
moisture surge (with dewpoints approaching 70 F) could result in a
brief tornado threat with any evening supercells across southwest
TX. Elsewhere, a nonzero tornado threat could also evolve with any
persistent supercells near the warm front, but this scenario remains
uncertain due to generally modest low-level flow/shear.
A separate area of primarily elevated storm development will be
possible late tonight from southeast KS/northeast OK into
central/southern MO. MUCAPE increasing to near 1000 J/kg and
sufficient effective shear could support an isolated hail threat
with the strongest storms in this regime.
...Southeast AZ into southwest NM...
Widespread convection is expected later today from southeast AZ into
southwest/south-central NM, in response to the eastward-moving upper
trough/low. Buoyancy will likely remain weak due to limited heating,
which may tend to suppress the organized severe threat, but strong
deep-layer shear could support occasional storm organization.
Confidence is too low to include probabilities at this time, but
stronger heating/destabilization than currently expected could
result in some severe potential.
..Dean/Moore.. 11/19/2025
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SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1217 AM CST Wed Nov 19 2025
Valid 201200Z - 211200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Scattered thunderstorms are possible across the southern Plains on
Thursday. Severe thunderstorm potential appears limited at this
time. Isolated thunderstorms may extend into the Ohio and Tennessee
Valleys as well, though this activity is not expected to be severe.
...Southern Plains...
An upper trough oriented from the Great Basin into northwest Mexico
will pivot east/northeast into the southern Plains on Thursday. As
the shortwave trough ejects across the Plains, deamplification of
this system is forecast. Nevertheless, moderate deep-layer
southwesterly flow will overspread the OK/TX into the Ozark Plateau,
with forecast guidance indicating 30-50 kt 850-700 mb flow,
increasing to 60-70 kt at 500 mb.
Strong southwesterly flow aloft will overlap a moist boundary layer
from central into eastern TX/OK and eastward into the Ozarks and
Lower MS Valley. Widespread showers and thunderstorms are expected
to be ongoing across the southern Plains early Thursday in a
persistent warm advection regime ahead of the ejecting trough. By
evening, a Pacific front is forecast to move across western TX,
becoming oriented from western OK into central TX by 12z Friday.
Surface cyclogenesis is not expected to be remarkable given the
deamplifying upper trough, and deep-layer flow will remain veered.
This is likely to support training convection through the day and
into the evening, casting doubt on how much destabilization can
occur due to muted heating and limited lapse rates. Furthermore,
forecast soundings continue to indicate warm midlevels, further
influencing a sub-par thermodynamic environment. The best overlap of
warmer boundary layer temperatures, deep Gulf moisture, and stronger
vertical shear may exist during the late afternoon and evening
across parts of central TX, but this remains highly uncertain. A
marginal (level 1 of 5) risk may become necessary in subsequent
outlooks, but large uncertainty precludes probabilities at this
time.
..Leitman.. 11/19/2025
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SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0201 AM CST Wed Nov 19 2025
Valid 211200Z - 221200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Scattered thunderstorms are expected from the Texas coast into the
Tennessee Valley and central/southern Appalachians on Friday. Severe
thunderstorm potential appears limited.
...Texas Coast to the Mid-South/TN Valley vicinity...
A shortwave upper trough will develop east from the southern Plains
to the central Appalachians vicinity on Friday. A belt of enhanced
westerly flow associated with this feature will overspread the
Mid-South and TN Valley vicinity. At the surface, a cold front will
develop southeast across east TX and the Mid-MS/Lower OH Valleys.
Forecast guidance varies with the progression of the front, but the
expectation is for the boundary to extend from the central
Appalachians west/southwest to the TX coast by Saturday morning.
Convection will likely be ongoing Friday morning across east TX
along the cold front, and across portions of the Mid-South vicinity
within a warm advection regime. While boundary layer moisture will
be greater than normal for this time of year, boundary-parallel flow
will likely result in training convection, limiting stronger
destabilization. Furthermore, widespread cloudiness, poor lapse
rates and areas of precipitation downstream from the surface
boundary will further limit destabilization. While a couple of
strong storms cannot be entirely ruled out across parts of the
Mid-South and TN Valley, overall severe potential appears limited. A
strong storm or two also could occur across southeast TX near the
cold front, but weak large-scale ascent, modest vertical shear, and
warm midlevel temperatures should temper severe potential.
..Leitman.. 11/19/2025
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Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0306 AM CST Wed Nov 19 2025
Valid 221200Z - 271200Z
...DISCUSSION...
Most medium-range forecast guidance is consistent in developing an
eastward-progressing upper low and attendant trough from the
Southwest into the southern/central Plains Day 4/Sat into Day 6/Mon.
Strong surface high pressure in the wake of an earlier cold frontal
passage in the Day 3/Fri period will extend from the southern Plains
into the Southeast, suppressing any deeper northward Gulf moisture
return until overnight Day 5/Sun when the upper trough ejects into
the High Plains. Some severe thunderstorm potential could develop
across southern into central TX late Sunday into Monday as a surface
cold front develops east across the southern Plains and stronger
southwesterly deep-layer flow overlaps returning Gulf moisture.
However, it is unclear if surface-based storms will develop given
the overnight nature of storm development and potential capping.
Severe probabilities may become necessary in later outlooks as
details regarding moisture return and timing of convection become
better resolved.
The upper trough will progress east/northeast across the Midwest and
Southeast late in the forecast period, with most guidance suggesting
broad, low-amplitude troughing developing across much of the CONUS
east of the Rockies by midweek. Some severe potential could persist
into the Lower MS Valley/Deep South vicinity on Day 7/Tue as upper
trough and surface low continue east, but large spread is present in
medium-range guidance regarding the evolution of the surface low and
associated pre-frontal warm sector, resulting in low predictability.
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SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0107 AM CST Wed Nov 19 2025
Valid 191200Z - 201200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
...Synopsis...
Fire weather concerns are not expected today across the country. An
upper trough currently over southern CA is expected to gradually
shift east into the Four Corners region over the next 48 hours. As
this occurs, broadscale lift ahead of the wave will support
widespread showers and thunderstorms across the Southwest and
southern Plains. To the east, improving relative humidity and soil
moisture is expected across the Mid-Atlantic and southern
Appalachians due to rainfall over the past 24 hours and modest
low-level moisture advection through the day. Elsewhere across the
country, high relative humidity and/or weak winds will limit fire
concerns.
..Moore.. 11/19/2025
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
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SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0109 AM CST Wed Nov 19 2025
Valid 201200Z - 211200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
...Synopsis...
Critical fire weather conditions are not expected Thursday across
the country. Latest short/medium-range guidance shows strong
agreement in widespread rainfall across the southern Plains as an
upper trough gradually shifts east. Some increase in westerly
downslope flow is expected across parts of far West Texas with
sustained winds between 15-20 mph possible. Despite ongoing drought,
moist conditions upstream coupled with rainfall chances over the
next 24 hours should modulate RH reductions and fuel status. Further
east, dry conditions may persist across portions of the Southeast;
however, surface high pressure will limit wind speeds and the
overall fire weather concern.
..Moore.. 11/19/2025
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
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