RSS Mesoscale Discussions from Storm Prediction Center
No watches are valid as of Mon Jan 12 01:07:02 UTC 2026.
No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Mon Jan 12 01:07:02 UTC 2026.
SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0638 PM CST Sun Jan 11 2026
Valid 120100Z - 121200Z
...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are not forecast through tonight across the contiguous
United States.
...Synopsis...
Cool, dry and stable conditions across most of the CONUS will
preclude thunderstorms the remainder of tonight.
..Leitman.. 01/12/2026
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SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0346 PM CST Sun Jan 11 2026
Valid 131200Z - 191200Z
...Synopsis...
A more amplified upper-level pattern will evolve across CONUS by
midweek with pronounced north-to-south meridional flow developing
across the central U.S. though the weekend. Several cold fronts
should progress across the eastern U.S. with largely dry conditions
expected in the High Plains and West. Colder temperatures and likely
precipitation across the eastern CONUS should mitigate broader fire
weather threat for the latter part of the week. Dry post-frontal
flow and subsequent dry return flow events could allow for increased
fire weather threat across portions of the central/southern Plains
where dry fuels align.
...Day 4/Wednesday - Southern Plains...
Breezy and dry conditions behind a cold front are expected across
the Southern Plains on Day 4/Wednesday. An increased fire weather
threat is most likely across portions of central TX, where rainfall
deficits and dry fuels continue. Precipitation associated with an
upper-level low impacting southwest TX Day 3/Tuesday should also
largely avoid north-central and northwestern TX, supporting more
receptive fuels. Some forecast uncertainty remains in level of RH
reductions Wednesday afternoon so critical probabilities were
maintained at 40% for portions of northwest TX and the Rolling
Plains.
...Day 5-8/Thursday-Sunday...
An amplified ridge should remain intact over the West Coast through
the weekend while deeper troughing east of the Continental Divide
promotes intrusions of colder, generally more benign fire weather
conditions into the eastern contiguous U.S. Another robust cold
front moves into the central/southern Plains Days
5-6/Thursday-Friday, but uncertainty in timing in addition to
increased cloud cover and potential light precipitation could
mitigate a broader fire weather threat across the region.
..Williams.. 01/11/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
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