RSS Mesoscale Discussions from Storm Prediction Center
No watches are valid as of Sun Dec 14 21:10:02 UTC 2025.
No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Sun Dec 14 21:10:02 UTC 2025.
SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0142 PM CST Sun Dec 14 2025
Valid 142000Z - 151200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected today or tonight.
...20z Update...
The 10 percent thunder area was removed from South TX as the surface
front has surged south of the area into northeast Mexico. A minor
southward adjustment was also made across South Florida based on
latest surface observations and radar trends. Isolated weak
thunderstorms may persist the remainder of the afternoon from South
FL into the Keys.
..Leitman.. 12/14/2025
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0954 AM CST Sun Dec 14 2025/
Dry and stable conditions will prevail over most of the CONUS today,
with a few small exceptions. A strong cold front sagging southward
across TX might result in isolated afternoon thunderstorms over
south TX. Widely scattered showers and thunderstorms could affect
south FL this afternoon as the same front weakens and approaches the
area. And finally, a few lightning strikes could occur inland
across western WA late tonight as a strong shortwave trough
approaches. No severe storms are anticipated in any of these areas.
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SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1105 AM CST Sun Dec 14 2025
Valid 151200Z - 161200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
A few lightning flashes may occur in western Oregon and Washington
tomorrow (Monday).
...Synopsis...
A broad but low-amplitude upper ridge will become established east
of the Rockies while a de-amplifying upper trough overspreads the
northwestern U.S. tomorrow (Monday). Surface high pressure/colder
air will prevail east of the MS River, while dry, statically stable
air becomes predominant across the Plains into portions of the
Interior West. Thunderstorm potential will therefore be limited
across most of the U.S. One exception will be portions of the
Pacific Northwest, where colder temperatures aloft will accompany
the aforementioned de-amplifying upper trough. This will yield scant
buoyancy, amid appreciable forcing for ascent, to support a few
lightning flashes wherever deep-moist convection can develop.
Furthermore, 50+ kt flow, within a few hundred m above ground level,
will develop with the passage of the upper trough. If a stronger
storm core can materialize, enough downward momentum transport may
take place to support a few damaging gusts. However, confidence in
this scenario is too low for the introduction of severe
probabilities at this time.
..Squitieri.. 12/14/2025
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SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0107 PM CST Sun Dec 14 2025
Valid 161200Z - 171200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
A few lightning flashes may occur over parts of the Pacific
Northwest on Tuesday/Tuesday evening, with isolated thunderstorms
also possible over the Texas Coast Plain early Wednesday morning.
...Synopsis...
A series of mid-level troughs will progress across the northern
CONUS on Tuesday, resulting in pronounced surface troughs becoming
established across the Pacific Northwest and the central CONUS.
Cooler temperatures aloft will overspread the northern OR and WA
coastline, resulting in scant buoyancy amid deep-layer ascent to
support a few lightning flashes during the day Tuesday. A warm-air
advection regime should develop along the western Gulf Coast in
response to the glancing mid-level trough to the north, resulting in
the onset of moisture return. Elevated buoyancy should develop
within the warm-air advection regime after 06Z Wednesday morning,
which may support isolated thunderstorm development across the TX
Coastal Plain.
..Squitieri.. 12/14/2025
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SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1248 PM CST Sun Dec 14 2025
Valid 151200Z - 161200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
The previous forecast remains on track with no changes required.
Localized fire weather concerns remain possible within in the
immediate lee of the Laramie Mountains in southeast WY as well as
the northern Front Range in northern CO; however, latest guidance
continues to suggest that the overall potential will remain
sufficiently localized and transient to preclude highlights.
..Moore.. 12/14/2025
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1142 PM CST Sat Dec 13 2025/
...Synopsis...
An upper ridge will continue shift eastward into more of the central
CONUS on Monday. Surface high pressure will remain in the Southeast.
Breezy return flow will occur across parts of the southern Plains,
but cooler temperatures should continue to limit RH reductions.
Locally dry and breezy conditions are again possible in southeast
Wyoming. Fuels in parts of these regions may support brief, locally
elevated conditions, but greater fire weather concerns are not
expected.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
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SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0248 PM CST Sun Dec 14 2025
Valid 161200Z - 221200Z
Confidence in the potential for critical fire weather conditions
remains limited for the country through the extended period.
Long-range guidance and cluster analyses continue to trend towards a
more active upper-level flow regime heading into the upcoming work
week. This pattern shift will favor surface cyclone development
across Plains/Midwest with most guidance showing a reasonably strong
signal for intense cyclone development across the northern
Plains/Great Lakes during the D4/Wed to D5/Thur period. A similar
signal for cyclone development is noted heading into the upcoming
weekend (albeit with considerably higher model/ensemble
variability). In general, this synoptic regime will promote
rain/snow chances from the Pacific Northwest and northern Rockies
into the Midwest and southeastern states with predominantly dry and
warm conditions expected for the Southwest and southern Plains.
...D5/Thursday - D7/Saturday - Central/Southern High Plains...
A return to warm and dry conditions is anticipated for the work week
with temperatures expected to climb into the mid/upper 60s for
portions of the southern High Plains by mid-week. These temperatures
will reside near the 90th percentile of seasonal normal for the
region, and will promote steady dead/dormant fuel drying through
late week. The development of a series of strong surface lows and
cold frontal passages beginning D4/Wed and lasting through the
weekend may support strong enough winds for periods of elevated to
critical fire weather conditions across portions of the central and
southern High Plains each afternoon. While most deterministic and
ensemble solutions generally agree in the overall pattern,
considerable variability persist among guidance. This limits
confidence in which day/regions will see the greatest fire weather
threat, though risk probabilities may eventually be needed as model
consensus improves in the coming days.
..Moore.. 12/14/2025
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
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