RSS Mesoscale Discussions from Storm Prediction Center
No watches are valid as of Sun Nov 23 19:33:02 UTC 2025.
MD 2218 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR PARTS OF THE TEXAS SOUTH PLAINS INTO PECOS VALLEY
Mesoscale Discussion 2218
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0114 PM CST Sun Nov 23 2025
Areas affected...parts of the Texas South Plains into Pecos Valley
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible
Valid 231914Z - 232215Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent
SUMMARY...The initiation of thunderstorms, including one or two
evolving supercells posing a risk for large hail, and perhaps a
tornado, increasingly probable through 2-4 PM CST.
DISCUSSION...As large-scale mid/upper troughing continues to slowly
shift north-northeastward into/through the Four Corners region, an
initial embedded short wave perturbation is already pivoting
northeastward into the Texas Panhandle and South Plains vicinity.
Near the southern periphery of the mid-level cooling/forcing for
ascent associated with this feature, appreciable boundary-layer
destabilization is well underway, aided by continuing moist
southerly low-level return flow and boundary-layer heating and
mixing.
Models suggest that a dryline will continue becoming better defined
over the next couple of hours, across the Texas Big Bend through New
Mexico/Texas state border vicinity, north-northwest of Midland.
Along and to the east of this feature, convectively unstable
thermodynamic profiles are evolving, with a still moistening
boundary layer forecast to also become characterized by CAPE on the
order of 1000-1500 J/kg. At the same time, a 60-70 kt 500 mb jet
streak is overspreading the region, contributing to strong
deep-layer shear.
Convection-allowing model output and other guidance suggest that the
initiation of at least isolated thunderstorms will become
increasingly probable through the 20-22z time frame, centered
near/north of Midland. Although at least some weakening of
southerly low-level flow may yield increasingly modest to weak
low-level hodographs, the evolution of a supercell or two posing a
risk for severe hail appears possible, and a tornado may not be
entirely out of the question into early evening.
..Kerr/Mosier.. 11/23/2025
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...SJT...LUB...MAF...
LAT...LON 32120283 33530277 33500205 32190160 30960189 31030254
31410299 32120283
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN
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SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1024 AM CST Sun Nov 23 2025
Valid 231630Z - 241200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING OVER PARTS OF WEST TX....
...SUMMARY...
A few severe storms capable of large hail will be possible this
afternoon and evening across parts of west Texas.
...West TX...
Current satellite imagery shows a well-defined upper low over AZ,
with a band of showers and embedded thunderstorms preceding it
across central/eastern NM. This low is forecast to continue
northeastward throughout the day as a belt of strong mid-level flow
pivots through its southern and eastern periphery across the
southern High Plains and into the southern/central Plains. Low-level
moisture will continue to advect northwestward ahead of this low and
associated jet streak and model consensus brings upper 50s dewpoints
into the Permian Basin by this evening. This should result in a
relatively confined region of surface-based buoyancy across the
Permian Basin, which will combined with large-scale ascent and
strong shear to support supercells. Primary threat will be large
hail, although the anticipated development of surface-based buoyancy
does indicate a low-probability threat for strong winds and/or a
tornado.
Low-level stability will increase quickly with eastward extent, as a
result of both nocturnal cooling and generally cooler surface
temperatures throughout the day. Even so, enough elevated buoyancy
is anticipated for continued strong to occasionally severe storms
throughout much of the evening and overnight, particularly in the
03Z-06Z time frame across southwest TX. Hail is the primary risk
with these storms.
..Mosier/Wendt.. 11/23/2025
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SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1127 AM CST Sun Nov 23 2025
Valid 241200Z - 251200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN EAST TX TO THE
ARK-LA-MISS...
...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible from Monday
mid-afternoon into Monday night across east Texas into the
Ark-La-Miss. A few tornadoes along with large hail and damaging
winds are anticipated.
...Synopsis...
Multiple shortwave impulses embedded within a positive-tilt trough
over the central to southern High Plains will move east-northeast
towards the Lower OH and TN Valleys through early Tuesday. These
impulses will dampen Monday night downstream of a shortwave trough
digging from the Pacific Northwest into the northern Great Plains.
Weak surface cyclone near the KS/OK border may decay as it tracks
into the Ozarks. A warm front will advance north from south-central
TX and the central Gulf Coast.
...Central TX to MS...
Primary change this outlook has been to shift/expand severe
probabilities east/south based on latest guidance trends. Confidence
remains too low for highlighting a mesoscale corridor of strong
tornado potential with a level 3-ENH risk.
Elevated storms will be ongoing at 12Z Monday from parts of central
TX to western AR. Marginally severe hail is possible with these
storms through midday. Downstream of these storms, the surface warm
front will accelerate northward across east TX. Amid rich
boundary-layer moisture south of the front, a plume of moderate
buoyancy will become pervasive from south into most of east TX.
Primary severe potential should commence around mid-afternoon amid
weak mid-level height falls and minimal inhibition. Activity should
intensify/increase along the outflow from early-day convection and
in confluence bands immediately downstream. Strong southwesterly
deep-layer shear will support supercell structures, but convective
mode will likely remain quite messy along the progressive outflow
that nearly parallels the shear vector. The more semi-discrete cells
just ahead and trailing southward will have the best potential to
produce large hail. The tornado threat will be influenced by the
degree of discrete convection that forms eastward in the warm sector
through early evening where low-level hodograph curvature remains
large. Nocturnal tornado and some wind threat will persist into the
late evening/overnight period as rich low-level moisture is
maintained across the Sabine Valley and expands east through MS.
..Grams.. 11/23/2025
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SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0115 PM CST Sun Nov 23 2025
Valid 251200Z - 261200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE DEEP
SOUTH...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe storms are possible across the Deep South on Tuesday
and Tuesday night.
...Synopsis...
Leading shortwave impulses over the Lower OH and TN Valleys will
further dampen, downstream of an amplifying shortwave trough over
the Upper Midwest. This latter feature will induce pronounced
surface cyclogenesis over the Great Lakes. Trailing cold front will
sharpen/accelerate southeastward Tuesday night in the Southeast.
...Deep South...
A strong low-level jet over the OH to TN Valleys at 12Z Tuesday will
shift quickly northeast through the day. This will yield decreasing
speeds and more veered profiles by afternoon in the warm sector
ahead of the cold front. With convergence along the boundary likely
remaining weak through most of the day, large-scale ascent for a
greater than isolated severe threat appears nebulous.
A plume of moderate buoyancy should linger across LA/southern MS,
potentially extending into parts of AL by afternoon, and hold at
weak farther northeast. Deep-layer shear will remain sufficient for
some supercell potential, but the subsiding flow fields with respect
to the diurnal heating cycle casts uncertainty on how
sustained/productive storms may be. Instability will diminish after
sunset, but a marginal severe threat could linger near the AL/FL/GA
border area with nocturnal convection along the accelerating front.
..Grams.. 11/23/2025
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SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1031 AM CST Sun Nov 23 2025
Valid 231700Z - 241200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
No changes to the Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook as no broad fire
weather concerns are expected today across the CONUS. Please see
previous discussion below.
..Williams.. 11/23/2025
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1246 AM CST Sun Nov 23 2025/
...Synopsis...
There are no fire-weather concerns forecast for Sunday. A lack of
dry and windy conditions coupled with cooler temperatures and recent
wetting rainfall will mitigate any threat for wildfire ignition and
spread.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0131 PM CST Sun Nov 23 2025
Valid 241200Z - 251200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
No changes to the Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook were needed with no
highlights introduced. Relatively dry, post-frontal flow in the wake
of an exiting surface low/trough is expected across western TX
Monday. West/northwest winds of 10-15 mph and relatively humidity
briefly falling to between 15-20% could bring locally elevated fire
weather conditions across the TX Big Bend/Edwards Plateau region
Monday afternoon. However, at least some rainfall preceding the dry
west/northwest flow along with mostly unreceptive fuels should limit
a more significant fire weather threat across western TX. Otherwise,
minimal fire weather concerns will remain across the rest of the
contiguous U.S.
..Williams.. 11/23/2025
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1246 AM CST Sun Nov 23 2025/
...Synopsis...
No fire-weather concerns are anticipated on Monday due to an overall
lack of overlap of dry/windy conditions with receptive fuels. Cooler
temperatures, weaker surface winds, and recent wetting rainfall will
all serve to reduce the threat for wildfire ignition and spread.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
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