RSS Mesoscale Discussions from Storm Prediction Center
No watches are valid as of Fri Mar 13 16:08:01 UTC 2026.
No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Fri Mar 13 16:08:01 UTC 2026.
SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0712 AM CDT Fri Mar 13 2026
Valid 131300Z - 141200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Organized severe thunderstorms are not expected.
...NY/PA...
a fast-moving and well-defined shortwave trough is indicated over
WI. This feature will track across the Great Lakes and affect parts
of PA/NY later this afternoon and evening. Strong low-level warm
advection and lift will aid in the development of showers and
isolated thunderstorms over southern Ontario and parts of
central/western NY/PA. While lightning activity will likely be
sparse, strong low-level winds and steepening mid-level lapse rates
could result in gusty showers and thunderstorms with isolated severe
winds possible.
...FL...
A few afternoon thunderstorms are expected today over central/south
FL, along and ahead of a surface cold front. Weak winds aloft
should preclude severe storms.
..Hart/Weinman.. 03/13/2026
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SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1105 AM CDT Fri Mar 13 2026
Valid 131630Z - 141200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Strong/gusty winds may occur with low-topped convection across parts
of western/central Pennsylvania and vicinity this afternoon, but
organized severe thunderstorms are not forecast.
...Western/Central Pennsylvania...
An upper trough with associated 100-125 kt mid-level jet will move
eastward today from the Great Lakes/OH Valley into the Mid-Atlantic.
Rather strong low/mid-level flow will overspread the upper OH Valley
into western/central PA and vicinity by this afternoon ahead of a
surface cold front. Low-level moisture is expected to remain very
limited, with surface dewpoints in the teens and 20s across this
area as of late morning/early afternoon. Some modest increase in
boundary-layer moisture and cold temperatures aloft attendant to the
upper trough may support weak MUCAPE with modest daytime heating.
One or more bands of low-topped convection may develop and pose some
threat for strong/gusty winds beyond the already enhanced background
gradient wind field. However, the meager moisture and instability
forecast this afternoon suggest that any severe risk will likely be
very isolated, so low wind probabilities have not been included with
this update.
...Central/Southern Florida Peninsula...
Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms should develop this
afternoon across parts of the central/southern FL Peninsula along
and south of a remnant front. This convection may preferentially
form along the Atlantic Coast sea breeze in a weakly unstable
environment. Poor lapse rates aloft (reference 12Z KEY and 00Z MFL
observed soundings) and weak low/mid-level winds noted on recent
KAMX/KBYX VWPs will likely limit overall updraft strength and
organization. While small hail and/or gusty winds could occur with
the stronger cores that develop, the overall severe threat should
remain low.
..Gleason/Chalmers.. 03/13/2026
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SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1026 AM CDT Fri Mar 13 2026
Valid 131700Z - 141200Z
There are no updates to the outlook as the forecast remains on
track. Dry return flow over portions of central and northern Texas
could experience brief localized elevated conditions today. See the
previous forecast discussion below for additional details.
..Stearns/Nauslar.. 03/13/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0148 AM CDT Fri Mar 13 2026/
...Synopsis...
Dry and breezy downslope winds will be likely across portions of the
southern High Plains today. Overlap of relative humidity around
10-15% with sustained west-northwesterly winds around 10-15 mph and
receptive fuels will support a broad area of Elevated fire concerns
in the lee of the higher terrain from eastern Wyoming to New Mexico
and east in NE, KS, OK Panhandle. A few more favored downslope
locations in the immediate lee of the terrain across central New
Mexico and south-central Colorado will see locally Critical
conditions at times. For now, this area remains too localized for
inclusion of Critical areas.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
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