RSS Mesoscale Discussions from Storm Prediction Center
WW 201 SEVERE TSTM MT 132150Z - 140500Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 201
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
350 PM MDT Wed May 13 2026
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of
Eastern Montana
* Effective this Wednesday afternoon and evening from 350 PM
until 1100 PM MDT.
* Primary threats include...
Scattered damaging winds and isolated significant gusts to 75
mph possible
SUMMARY...Thunderstorm bands with potential severe wind gusts are
forecast to move into the Watch area this evening. Peak gusts
associated with the stronger cores and downdrafts will likely range
in the 60-75 mph range. This activity will gradually wane by late
evening into the early overnight period.
The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 60
statute miles east and west of a line from 55 miles north northwest
of Glasgow MT to 55 miles south of Billings MT. For a complete
depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update
(WOUS64 KWNS WOU1).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.
&&
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 199...WW 200...
AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 65 knots. A
few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 400. Mean storm motion vector
22045.
...Smith
Read more
WW 200 SEVERE TSTM ID UT WY 131950Z - 140200Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 200
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
150 PM MDT Wed May 13 2026
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of
Eastern Idaho
Northern Utah
Western Wyoming
* Effective this Wednesday afternoon and evening from 150 PM
until 800 PM MDT.
* Primary threats include...
Scattered damaging winds and isolated significant gusts to 75
mph possible
SUMMARY...Coverage of showers and thunderstorms is expected to
increase this afternoon and evening from northern Utah through
eastern Idaho and western Wyoming. High cloud bases, a deeply mixed
boundary layer, and moderate to strong mid-level flow support the
potential for strong to severe gusts with any deeper, more sustained
storms. Isolated gusts over 75 mph are possible.
The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 105
statute miles east and west of a line from 20 miles west northwest
of West Yellowstone MT to 60 miles south southeast of Salt Lake City
UT. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch
outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU0).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.
&&
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 199...
AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
1 inch. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 65 knots. A few
cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector
22040.
...Mosier
Read more
WW 199 SEVERE TSTM MT 131850Z - 140300Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 199
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1250 PM MDT Wed May 13 2026
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of
Western and Central Montana
* Effective this Wednesday afternoon and evening from 1250 PM
until 900 PM MDT.
* Primary threats include...
Scattered damaging winds and isolated significant gusts to 75
mph possible
SUMMARY...Thunderstorm coverage is expected to increase over the
next few hours as a strong shortwave trough progresses into the
region. Modest buoyancy atop a deeply mixed boundary layer will
support high-based storms capable of strong to severe wind gusts. A
few gusts over 75 mph are possible.
The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 100
statute miles east and west of a line from 50 miles northwest of
Havre MT to 50 miles east southeast of Dillon MT. For a complete
depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update
(WOUS64 KWNS WOU9).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.
&&
AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
1 inch. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 65 knots. A few
cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector
24040.
...Mosier
Read more
WW 0201 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0201 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET
Read more
WW 0200 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 200
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..CHALMERS..05/13/26
ATTN...WFO...PIH...SLC...GJT...RIW...
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 200
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
IDC005-007-011-013-019-023-029-031-033-041-043-051-063-065-067-
071-077-081-132140-
ID
. IDAHO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BANNOCK BEAR LAKE BINGHAM
BLAINE BONNEVILLE BUTTE
CARIBOU CASSIA CLARK
FRANKLIN FREMONT JEFFERSON
LINCOLN MADISON MINIDOKA
ONEIDA POWER TETON
UTC003-005-009-011-013-023-029-033-035-043-045-047-049-051-057-
132140-
UT
. UTAH COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BOX ELDER CACHE DAGGETT
DAVIS DUCHESNE JUAB
MORGAN RICH SALT LAKE
SUMMIT TOOELE UINTAH
UTAH WASATCH WEBER
Read more
WW 0199 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 199
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..CHALMERS..05/13/26
ATTN...WFO...TFX...MSO...BYZ...
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 199
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
MTC001-005-007-013-015-023-027-031-037-041-043-045-049-051-057-
059-067-073-077-093-095-097-099-101-107-132140-
MT
. MONTANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BEAVERHEAD BLAINE BROADWATER
CASCADE CHOUTEAU DEER LODGE
FERGUS GALLATIN GOLDEN VALLEY
HILL JEFFERSON JUDITH BASIN
LEWIS AND CLARK LIBERTY MADISON
MEAGHER PARK PONDERA
POWELL SILVER BOW STILLWATER
SWEET GRASS TETON TOOLE
WHEATLAND
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
Read more
MD 0715 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR NORTH-CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA INTO EASTERN NEW YORK
Mesoscale Discussion 0715
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0454 PM CDT Wed May 13 2026
Areas affected...north-central Pennsylvania into eastern New York
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 132154Z - 140000Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent
SUMMARY...A broken line of thunderstorms may produce instances of
strong winds and small hail.
DISCUSSION...A broken line of thunderstorms is moving northeast
across portions of northern Pennsylvania into eastern New York with
some brief enhancement of echo tops/intensity shown this afternoon.
Recent gusts to around 50 mph were recorded near Syracuse, NY. The
environment downstream is largely cooler and more stable. Some
warmer temps and dew points in the low to mid 50s are in place
across eastern PA amid steep low to mid-level lapse rates. This may
support mixing down of stronger 850 mb flow and a few instances of
strong wind gusts and perhaps small hail. Overall, this threat
should remain short in duration given loss of daytime heating soon.
..Thornton/Smith.. 05/13/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...ALY...PHI...BGM...BUF...CTP...
LAT...LON 41687737 42547672 43057643 43587621 43887598 43777541
43387510 42877507 42067524 41277560 40727590 40447617
40297668 40397721 40637767 40917769 41687737
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN
Read more
MD 0714 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 199... FOR PARTS OF NORTH-CENTRAL MONTANA
Mesoscale Discussion 0714
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0437 PM CDT Wed May 13 2026
Areas affected...Parts of north-central Montana
Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 199...
Valid 132137Z - 132300Z
The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 199
continues.
SUMMARY...A locally enhanced corridor of significant-gust (75+ mph)
potential is evident over parts of north-central Montana in WW199.
DISCUSSION...The latest radar data from KFTX shows a few deeper
cores evolving along/immediately atop a consolidating cold pool
surging north-northeastward into north-central MT -- immediately
northeast of Great Falls. This activity has produced several severe
gusts upwards of 60 mph thus far. Around 40 kt of deep-layer shear
orthogonal to the strengthening cold pool and forcing for ascent
ahead of an approaching shortwave trough should maintain this
convective band and related cold pool with northeastward extent. The
pre-convective environment -- characterized by a hot/deeply mixed
boundary layer (around 50 deg F T/Td spreads) -- will aid in robust
convective momentum transport and the potential for a swath of
severe gusts (some upwards of 80 mph). This potential for
significant-severe gusts continues to be advertised by the latest
high-resolution guidance including WOFs runs -- which has shown
gusts to near 90 mph. However, given convective trends up to this
point, gusts of this magnitude remain uncertain.
..Weinman.. 05/13/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...GGW...TFX...
LAT...LON 46920980 47261023 47611079 47841159 47951161 48301132
48761063 48951011 48950936 48670873 48160844 47600867
46950943 46920980
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
Read more
SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0259 PM CDT Wed May 13 2026
Valid 132000Z - 141200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE
GREAT BASIN INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES...
...SUMMARY...
Scattered thunderstorms capable of damaging wind gusts remain
possible from the Great Basin into northern Rockies this afternoon
and evening. Other areas of isolated severe wind/hail risk may occur
over the northern Appalachians and the Texas Panhandle.
...20Z Update...
The previous forecast (see below) remains generally on track.
Thunder and severe probabilities were trimmed over the OH Valley to
account for the passage of a broken squall line. Thunder
probabilities were also trimmed over portions of eastern KS and
immediate surrounding areas, as confidence for organized elevated
convection along the easternmost edge of a low-level WAA regime
continues to decrease.
..Squitieri.. 05/13/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1120 AM CDT Wed May 13 2026/
...WV/PA/NY...
Recent surface analysis places a low over northern Lake
Huron/central Ontario, with a cold front extending back
southwestward through western OH and western KY. Current satellite
shows the associated shortwave trough extending from central Ontario
into the Mid MS Valley. This imagery also shows two embedded
vorticity maxima, one near the surface low over central Ontario and
the other farther southwest over IL/IN. This shortwave is expected
to mature throughout the day, trending towards a more neutral tilt
by this evening, while also gradually shifting eastward. The
associated cold front is forecast to shift quickly eastward as well.
At least scattered clouds will likely persist throughout the day,
somewhat tempering the overall daytime heating. Even so, modest
low-level moisture (i.e. dewpoints in the low/mid 50s) ahead of the
cold front will support a corridor of sufficient buoyancy for
thunderstorm development ahead of the front from western PA and WV
eastward across PA and into southern/central NY. Linear forcing
along the front and relatively modest deep-layer shear will favor a
multicellular line segment mode. Potential exists for a few deeper
updrafts capable of damaging gusts, but the limited heating ahead of
the front, modest buoyancy, and displacement south and east of the
stronger low to mid-level flow should keep the overall severe
potential isolated. A few isolated instances of hail are possible
early in the convective cycle before the more linear structures
dominate.
Recently issued MCD #0710 addresses this area as well.
...Great Basin into the northern Rockies...
Current satellite imagery shows a well-defined, negatively tilted
shortwave trough progressing across the Pacific Northwest. This wave
is forecast to continue eastward through ID and MT today. Strong
heating and deep boundary-layer mixing is expected ahead of this
wave from the Great Basin into the northern Rockies. At the same
time, mid-level moisture associated with the wave will advect
eastward/northeastward, resulting in large area of deep inverted-v
thermodynamic profiles that are also buoyant enough to support
convection and isolated lightning. Strong mid-level flow will
accompany the shortwave, with moderate mid-level flow extending
southward from the primary wave through UT and far western CO.
Scattered convection is expected as lift associated with the wave
begins to interact with this destabilizing airmass, likely starting
around 20/21Z from western MT into northern UT. This convection,
which should include lightning-producing updrafts, will then spread
eastward/northeastward with time. Strong to severe gusts are
possible across this entire region, with the highest likelihood for
severe gusts from central/southern ID into central MT where the
strongest mid-level flow is expected.
...TX Panhandle...
Deep boundary-layer mixing is anticipated across the TX Panhandle
today, with temperatures climbing into the 90s. Low-level moisture
advection should result in higher dewpoints across the eastern
Panhandle, with the resultant dryline acting as a focus for
convergence and attempts at convective initiation. The overall
environment does not look conducive for initiation and majority of
the CAMs do not show storm development. However, any storm that can
persist in this environment would conditionally pose a threat of
damaging wind gusts and large hail.
Read more
SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1222 PM CDT Wed May 13 2026
Valid 141200Z - 151200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL AND EASTERN KANSAS...
...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms with large hail and severe wind gusts are expected on
Thursday across parts of central and eastern Kansas, with more
isolated severe storms possible over parts of the lower Missouri
Valley, northern Ozarks and southern High Plains.
...Synopsis...
Prominent mid-level ridging over the central US is forecast to
weaken and shift eastward Thursday as a flanking upper low moves
eastward toward the Atlantic Coast. A second upper trough, and
associated southern stream shortwave, will move out of the Rockies
and into the Plains Thursday afternoon/evening. Ascent from this
trough will deepen a lee trough into a surface low over the central
High Plains, south of a cold front advancing through the upper
Midwest. Strengthening southerly flow ahead of the lee low will
allow destabilization and increased thunderstorm chances along a
trailing dryline from the central Plains to the southern High
Plains.
...Central KS into the MO and central MS Valley...
As the southern lee low deepens ahead of the southern stream
shortwave trough, a narrow corridor of low-level moisture will
quickly return northward into central KS. Model guidance varies
considerably on the depth and quality of the low-level moisture.
However, dewpoints in the upper 50s to low 60s F appear plausible by
late afternoon and continuing to increase into the evening. This, in
combination with ascent and steepening mid-level lapse rates, will
support moderate destabilization (1500-2500 J/kg MLCAPE) along the
dryline/triple point. Low-level southerly flow, veering to 40-50 kt
in the mid-levels and orthogonal to the dryline will promote
supercell wind profiles.
While capping is expected to remain fairly strong, casting some
uncertainty on storm coverage, ascent from the approaching shortwave
trough along with diurnal heating should remove inhibition.
Convective development is possible near the surface low, or
originating within the more deeply mixed air mass to the west of the
dryline, by late afternoon/early evening. Large hail would be likely
initially, along with some potential for severe wind gusts given the
dry boundary layer. As these storms encounter the increasing surface
moisture, gradual intensification of a few supercells is possible.
The increase in the low-level jet after 00z could support additional
development, while also increasing low-level shear. A tornado is
possible with any supercells able to remain discrete near sunset
given 0-1 km SRH of 200-400 m2/s2.
Eventually, storms should congeal into a cluster and spread eastward
into MO and the mid MS Valley overnight. Some hail and damaging gust
threat remain possible into early D3/Friday.
...Southern and central High Plains...
To the west of the dryline, robust heating and deep vertical mixing
should support the development of weak instability atop a relatively
dry boundary layer. By mid afternoon, high-based showers and
thunderstorms are expected from eastern CO, western KS into parts of
the OK/TX Panhandles and eastern NM. While buoyancy appears quite
limited (~500 J/kg MUCAPE), nearly dry adiabatic lapse rates in the
lowest 3 km will likely support stronger downdrafts with scattered
showers/thunderstorms. Isolated severe wind gusts are possible given
the dry sub cloud layer.
..Lyons.. 05/13/2026
Read more
SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0227 PM CDT Wed May 13 2026
Valid 151200Z - 161200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF
THE MISSOURI VALLEY AND MIDWEST...
...SUMMARY...
Severe storms with large hail and severe wind gusts will be possible
on Friday in parts of the Midwest, central Plains and lower Missouri
Valley.
...Lower Missouri Valley and Midwest...
Multiple foci for severe storm development are evident in
medium-range model guidance, with considerable variance in the
positioning of these features, Friday and Friday night. A cluster of
storms may be ongoing in the morning hours over the Midwest or
MO/central MS Valleys, further complicating the severe risk. A cold
front is forecast to sag southward across the Midwest and central
Plains into parts of southern NE and northeastern CO. Continued
low-level moisture advection along and north of the boundary will
likely result in adequate destabilization for thunderstorms. While
displaced from the stronger flow aloft near a northern stream upper
trough, enough mid-level flow is evident on area model soundings to
support supercells and organized clusters, some of which may be
behind the front. Hail and damaging gusts are possible with one or
more clusters of strong to severe storms.
Farther south, into KS and western MO, mid to upper 60s F dewpoints
are likely to be in place ahead of northern portions of a dryline
and surface trough. Scattered thunderstorms are expected to form to
the east of the dryline during the late afternoon and early evening
with steep mid-level lapse rates and MLCAPE in the 3000 to 4000 J/kg
range. Additional storms are expected to form further east along the
northern edge of the low-level jet. Located between the primary
upper troughs, mid-level flow is weaker here (20-30 kt at 500 mb),
suggesting a messy storm mode, but with some supercell potential.
Hail and damaging gusts are possible with any supercells or clusters
that develop/spread eastward into the evening and overnight.
...Central and southern High Plains...
Near the dryline and lee low, from eastern CO/western KS into
western OK, deep mixing and ascent from the approach of the southern
stream shortwave trough could support isolated to widely scattered
thunderstorm development Friday afternoon. Uncertainty on moisture
depth is high, with some guidance showing modest buoyancy atop a
deeply mixed boundary layer. Should this occur, weak 500 mb winds
could allow for a few multicell clusters with damaging gusts across
the central and southern Plains.
..Lyons.. 05/13/2026
Read more
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0249 PM CDT Wed May 13 2026
Valid 141200Z - 151200Z
...Northern Plains...
An upper-level trough and associated stronger mid-level westerly
flow push into the Northern Plains Day 2/Thursday. At the surface,
strong post frontal westerly winds of 15-25 mph and low RH will
align with dry fuels and RH of 20-30% to support an elevated fire
weather threat across the Dakotas. Farther west, more pronounced
deep-layer westerly flow will yield sustained west winds of 30-45
mph across central and eastern MT during peak afternoon heating,
although limited RH reductions, some expected rainfall through
tonight and green up across southern MT should mitigate an otherwise
critical fire weather environment. Elevated highlights were
generally expanded eastward, farther into ND/SD and central NE based
on latest forecast guidance.
...Southwest and Southern High Plains...
Westerly downslope flow of 15-20 mph amid RH of 15-20% will bring
elevated fire weather concerns from far southeastern AZ, much of
southeastern NM into the OK and TX Panhandles. Delayed green up has
allowed receptive fuels to remain in place. A subtle mid-level short
wave is expected to eject into the southern High Plains Thursday.
The dry downslope trajectories behind a dry line will keep a dry,
sub-cloud boundary layer in place through early afternoon. The
arrival of the mid-level perturbation and associated surface low
evolution across southwestern KS, in addition to sufficient
mid-level moisture and afternoon destabilization, should result in
isolated, high based showers and thunderstorms across much of the TX
Panhandle into the OK Panhandle and adjacent CO/KS areas. Minimal
rainfall, gusty outflow winds and some lightning ignitions are
possible in existing dry fuels.
..Williams.. 05/13/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1240 AM CDT Wed May 13 2026/
...Synopsis...
An upper level low will traverse the central United States/Canada
border as a long wave trough across the Eastern Seaboard transitions
to a closed low. Upper ridging will slide over the High Plains and
Upper Midwest, gradually flattening as the Canadian upper low moves
east. At the surface, a strong dry cold front extending south of a
central Canadian surface low will bring widespread fire weather
concerns to the northern/central Plains. A surface low will emerge
over the TX/OK Panhandles, tightening surface pressure gradients
east of the CO/NM higher terrain thus enhancing downslope flow and
deep layer mixing to promote a broad fire weather threat. Increasing
mid-level moisture and subtle forcing associating with an
approaching short wave impulse could aid in high-based thunderstorm
development across portions of the OK/TX Panhandles.
...Northern Plains...
Following the passage of a powerful cold front, a robust mid-level
jet and deep westerly flow will promote fire weather concerns across
the region. Modest RH of 20-30 percent and west winds of 30-45 mph
are possible with higher gusts across the Plains of MT and terrain
favored areas in central and eastern WY. A widespread transition to
green up over southeastern MT into the Dakotas may somewhat mitigate
fuel receptivity. However, in areas with minimal green up and/or
mixed receptive fuels, locally critical fire weather conditions may
emerge where RH could decrease below 15 percent.
...Southwest and Southern High Plains...
Westerly downslope enhanced flow of 15-20 mph and RH reductions of
less than 20 percent amid a dry fuelscape will promote Elevated fire
weather conditions across the region. Farther east, increasing
mid-level moisture along with afternoon heating and resultant
instability should support isolated thunderstorms across the OK/TX
Panhandles on Thursday afternoon, where an IsoDryT risk area has
been introduced.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0453 PM CDT Wed May 13 2026
Valid 151200Z - 211200Z
...Synopsis...
An embedded short wave within broader westerly mid-level flow will
move into the Upper Midwest by Day 3/Friday. Robust west winds at
the surface in the wake of a departing deep surface low in Ontario
will bring keep a fire weather threat across much of the Northern
Plains and Upper Midwest Friday. A more subtle mid-level
perturbation ejects into the Southern Plains Friday as an associated
lee surface low develops across the High Plains, supporting dry and
breezy conditions and enhanced fire weather concerns. A multi-day
fire weather threat is likely across portions of the Southwest and
Southern Plains as a larger scale trough sets up over the western
U.S. with persistent southwest flow aloft bolstering lee trough
formation across the Southern Plains.
...Day 3/Friday...
...Northern Plains...
Dry and breezy westerly flow in the wake of a cold front will likely
enhance fire weather concerns across portions of eastern MT into the
Dakotas and western Minnesota, where fuels remain receptive.
However, changes to current Day 3/Friday forecast are possible
depending on rainfall distribution from Day 2/Thursday.
...Southern Plains...
A swath of enhanced southwest winds will likely develop south of a
lee surface low across the TX Panhandle across portions of the
southern High Plains Friday. Enhanced downslope drying as the subtle
short wave aloft shifts into the Southern Plains along with breezy
southwest winds and dry fuels should promote a fire weather threat
amid dry fuels. 40% critical probabilities were introduced across
southeastern NM and adjacent far West TX, northeastward into far
southwestern OK.
...Day 4-7/Saturday-Tuesday...
Fire weather concerns shift mainly into portions of the Southwest
and Southern Plains as a larger scale upper trough anchors over
western CONUS for the weekend into early next week. Persistent
southwesterly flow aloft will aid in lee trough development across
the Southern Plains, driving dry and breezy conditions over the
Southwest and southern High Plains.
...California...
Stronger northwest flow on the backside of the trough with an
accompanying Pacific cold front shifts southeastward over the
weekend. Dry, post frontal flow funneling through the CA Central
Valley should bring a fire weather threat to this region on Day
5/Sunday as finer fuels and grasses dry leading up to the stronger
northerly/northwesterly wind event. 40% critical probabilities were
added to the CA Central Valley to cover this potential threat.
..Williams.. 05/13/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
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