RSS Mesoscale Discussions from Storm Prediction Center
No watches are valid as of Mon Jul 6 09:04:02 UTC 2026.
No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Mon Jul 6 09:04:02 UTC 2026.
SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1236 AM CDT Mon Jul 06 2026
Valid 061200Z - 071200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE EASTERN DAKOTAS AND WESTERN MINNESOTA...
...SUMMARY...
Widely scattered severe thunderstorms capable of large to very large
hail and severe wind gusts appear possible across the eastern
Dakotas and western Minnesota Monday afternoon and evening. More
isolated occurrences of damaging wind and large hail are possible
from the northern Rockies into northern High Plains and the lower
Mississippi Valley. Isolated to widely scattered damaging wind gusts
will be possible with the strongest storms in the southern
Mid-Atlantic and Carolinas.
...Synopsis...
A vigorous short-wave trough and associated 50-60 kt mid-level jet
streak will progress from southern Saskatchewan into northwest
Ontario with the southern fringe of modest height falls and stronger
mid-level flow situated along the international border. Elsewhere, a
vorticity maximum will move through AR within the base of a
mid-level trough over the lower MS Valley, while a separate
short-wave trough advances through OR into the northern Rockies.
At the surface, a cold front associated with the Canadian
disturbance will move south into the Dakotas and upper MS Valley,
while a backdoor-type cold front pushes south through parts of the
Mid-Atlantic. A lee trough will extend south from the front through
central VA into the Carolinas with some model signal for surface low
development along the trough over central VA.
...Upper Mississippi Valley into north-central Nebraska...
Boundary-layer dewpoints in the mid 60s to low 70s will coincide
with the northeast extension of an EML plume to yield moderate to
strong instability Monday afternoon ahead of the cold front with
MLCAPE of 2500-3500+ J/kg. The modest height falls aloft will
combine with frontal convergence to yield widely scattered
thunderstorms by mid afternoon in the Red River Valley. Subsequent
storm development is possible along the front as far south as
northwest or north-central NE by late afternoon or early evening.
The strongest deep-layer shear of 30-40 kt is forecast across the
Red River Valley with a vector orientation that is largely
perpendicular to the surface front. As such, supercells appear
possible initially with the primary hazard being large hail
potentially in excess of two inches. Effective SRH of generally less
than 100-150 m2/s2 is forecast into late afternoon, during the
period of more discrete storm modes, which may tend to limit a more
robust tornado threat. 00Z CAM guidance is in relatively good
agreement in depicting the upscale growth of storms into a linear
system by evening over eastern SD and western MN with an associated
risk for severe wind gusts.
Weaker vertical shear with southward extent from central SD into
northern NE is expected to limit the potential for organized storm
modes, though isolated occurrences of hail and severe wind gusts
appear possible with the strongest storms.
...Northeast Idaho through southern Montana and northern Wyoming...
The short-wave trough moving into the northern Rockies will be
attended by a belt of 35-40 kt winds at 500 mb, which will enhance
vertical shear across the region. Isolated to widely scattered
thunderstorms are expected to develop by mid to late afternoon from
the Bitterroot to Big Horn Mountains amidst a steep lapse rate and
at least modestly unstable environment. There is some model signal
that an MCS could evolve over northeast WY Monday evening.
Sufficient deep-layer shear will exist to support at least episodic
supercell and bowing structures capable of large hail and damaging
winds. The expected areal coverage of the severe weather threat
currently precludes higher wind and hail probabilities.
...Mid-Atlantic into the Carolinas...
A hot and very moist boundary layer is forecast in the vicinity of
the lee trough and surface low Monday afternoon with MLCAPE as high
as 2000-3000 J/kg. Forcing for ascent will be weak, as will vertical
shear. Nonetheless, convergence along the lee trough and backdoor
front is expected to foster scattered thunderstorms by early to mid
afternoon with the potential for upscale growth into loosely
organized clusters by late afternoon into evening. The presence of
steep low-level lapse rates will enhance downdraft potential with a
risk for damaging wind gusts with the strongest storms.
An upgrade to a level 2/Slight Risk is possible in later outlooks if
a preferred corridor of damaging wind potential becomes apparent in
future model data.
...Lower Mississippi Valley...
Forcing for ascent preceding the vorticity maximum mentioned in the
synopsis is expected to focus scattered afternoon thunderstorms from
AR into the Sabine and lower MS Valleys. Vertical shear will remain
relatively weak; however, the presence of a moist and moderately to
strongly unstable air mass (i.e., MLCAPE up to 2000-3000 J/kg) will
support vigorous up/downdrafts capable of isolated occurrences of
damaging winds and marginally severe hail.
..Mead/Moore.. 07/06/2026
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SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1210 AM CDT Mon Jul 06 2026
Valid 071200Z - 081200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE TUESDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA INTO SOUTHWESTERN MINNESOTA...
...SUMMARY...
Strong thunderstorms, which may evolve into an organized cluster
with increasing potential to produce severe wind gusts by late
Tuesday evening, are possible across parts of central and eastern
South Dakota into southwestern Minnesota. Other thunderstorm
clusters may form to the east of the Blue Ridge Mountains and
southwest of the Ark-La-Tex vicinity and pose a risk for damaging
wind gusts late Tuesday afternoon or evening.
...Discussion...
It still appears that the westerlies may become a bit less
progressive across the higher latitudes of North America by Tuesday.
As a mid/upper high evolves in the northwestern Canadian Arctic
latitudes, a deep remnant lower/mid-tropospheric cyclone may only
slowly migrate east-northeastward across Hudson Bay, toward the
northern Quebec shores, while a notable upstream trough slowly
pivots inland of the British Columbia coast.
In advance of the trailing perturbation, low-amplitude troughing,
comprised of at least a couple smaller-scale perturbations within
the modest zonal westerlies across the northern tier of the U.S.,
is forecast to progress east of the northern Rockies. As it does,
models suggest that it will gradually flatten initial mid-level
ridging across the middle Missouri Valley Tuesday through Tuesday
night.
Otherwise, mid-level ridging is forecast to remain prominent along
an axis from the subtropical eastern Pacific through the central and
southern Great Plains, while also developing northwestward from the
subtropical western Atlantic into parts of the southeast. It
appears that weak mid-level troughing will dig across the southern
New England and northern Mid Atlantic coast, leaving a remnant shear
axis between the ridging, roughly from the Ohio Valley into
southeastern Great Plains, with perhaps a well-defined,
quasi-stationary circulation along it across the Mid South vicinity.
...Parts of the middle Missouri Valley into Upper Midwest...
Beneath steep mid-level lapse rates, associated with a plume of
elevated mixed-layer air slowly becoming suppressed southward across
the middle Missouri Valley, it still appears that stronger
boundary-layer heating may contribute to moderate to strong
destabilization by late Tuesday afternoon. Guidance suggests that
this will focus in a corridor along/south of a stalling surface cold
front trailing the Hudson Bay cyclone, along which surface dew
points increasing to near 70F may contribute to CAPE in excess of
2000 J/kg.
Although timing of stronger thunderstorm initiation remains
uncertain, this probably will be aided by forcing for ascent
associated with the approaching mid-level perturbations. Once this
occurs, deep-layer shear appears likely to become at least
marginally supportive of supercell structures. Particularly by late
Tuesday evening, near the nose of a nocturnally strengthening
boundary-layer jet across central into eastern South Dakota, the
evolution of an upscale growing and organizing cluster appears
possible, accompanied by increasing potential to produce strong to
severe wind gusts as it propagates eastward.
...Mid Atlantic...
Both HREF and REFS calibrated thunderstorm guidance are similar with
highest probabilities for thunderstorms becoming concentrated along
and east of the Blue Ridge by late afternoon. Although embedded
within deep-layer westerly mean flow on the order of 20 kt or less,
thermodynamic profiles with high precipitable water content and
modest CAPE may support locally strong downbursts in stronger
storms.
There does appear at least some potential for weak low-level warm
advection to provide support for an upscale growing cluster
propagating southeastward toward coastal areas by Tuesday evening,
with continuing risk for potentially damaging winds along a
consolidating gust front.
...Northeast Texas into northern Louisiana...
Both HREF and REFS calibrated thunderstorm guidance currently focus
higher thunderstorm probabilities by late Tuesday afternoon across
the region, near the southwestern periphery of the broad, weak
mid-level cyclonic circulation. Aided by inflow of moderate
potential instability, within a corridor of stronger daytime
heating, some clustering of storms appears possible, accompanied by
potential for a few strong downbursts.
..Kerr.. 07/06/2026
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SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0231 AM CDT Mon Jul 06 2026
Valid 081200Z - 091200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS INTO UPPER
MIDWEST...
...SUMMARY...
Clusters of strong thunderstorms with potential to produce severe
hail and wind may evolve across parts of the Upper Midwest into
central Great Plains Wednesday through Wednesday night.
...Discussion...
It appears that notable remnant mid-level troughing will begin to
dig southeast of the Hudson Bay vicinity Wednesday through Wednesday
night, while an upstream short wave trough pivots northeast then
north of the Canadian Rockies toward the Northwest Territories.
Within the westerlies to the south of this regime, subtle mid-level
ridging may overspread the northern Rockies, with similar amplitude
downstream troughing digging across the northern Great Plains, Upper
Midwest and Great Lakes region.
Beneath this regime, a weak cold front, perhaps reinforced by
convective outflow in some locations, is forecast to overspread much
of the remainder of the Upper Midwest/adjacent Great Lakes and
middle Missouri Valley vicinity by late Wednesday night. This may
be preceded across parts of the central Great Plains by conglomerate
convective outflow emanating from considerable thunderstorm
development spreading off the Laramie Range/Front Range vicinity,
within steering flow trending northwesterly through the period.
...Great Plains/Upper Midwest...
Steeper mid-level lapse rates associated with a remnant plume of
elevated mixed-layer air may become increasingly confined to the
higher plains during this period. However, seasonably high moisture
content along/ahead of the southward advancing cold front may still
become supportive of mixed-layer CAPE of 1500-2000+ J/kg with
daytime heating.
It remains uncertain whether an evolving cluster of storms, and/or a
possible significant MCV emerging from it, will support continuing
or renewed organized thunderstorm development posing a risk for
severe wind gusts into and through the Upper Midwest during the day
Wednesday. However, it is possible that destabilization in its wake
could become sufficient to support strong thunderstorm development
posing a risk for severe hail and wind, ahead of the southward
advancing cold front later Wednesday into Wednesday night.
Otherwise, guidance suggests considerable thunderstorm activity,
initiating off the higher terrain of southeastern Wyoming through
central Colorado by late Wednesday, may gradually intensify and
consolidate within a more unstable environment near a broad/weak
surface cyclone developing across the high plains. Aided by a
nocturnally strengthening low-level jet, there appears at least
potential for this activity to organize with potential to swaths of
strong to severe surface gusts Wednesday evening, after initially
posing a risk for severe hail and localized downbursts.
..Kerr.. 07/06/2026
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Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0400 AM CDT Mon Jul 06 2026
Valid 091200Z - 141200Z
...DISCUSSION...
Medium-range model output continues to indicate the evolution of an
increasingly prominent mid/upper high across the lower Colorado
Valley and Plateau late this week into next weekend, which may
continue expanding and encompassing a significant portion of the
interior U.S. by early next week. How far north and northeast this
builds remains unclear; however, a plume of very warm elevated
mixed layer air advecting on strengthening flow around the northern
through northeastern periphery of this anticyclonic regime will
contribute to an environment conditionally conducive to organized
severe thunderstorm development.
It appears that this could focus anywhere from the central
Canadian/U.S. border vicinity through the Great Lakes into the
Northeast. By early next week (the Day 8-9 time frame), in
particular, at least some output suggests that a vigorous short wave
trough rounding the ridge may be accompanied by strong cyclogenesis,
which could promote widespread strong to severe thunderstorm
development across parts of New England into northern Mid Atlantic.
Given the uncertainties associated with the extended time frame and
model spread/discrepancies, severe weather probabilities remain less
than 15 percent for this period, but it is possible that this could
change sometime in later outlook updates for this period.
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SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0120 AM CDT Mon Jul 06 2026
Valid 061200Z - 071200Z
...Synopsis...
A combination of dry thunderstorms and dry/windy conditions will
pose fire weather concerns for portions of the Four Corners and
northern Great Basin for today. Early-morning water-vapor imagery
continues to show an upper ridge over the Four Corners region with
an embedded shortwave trough evident across the northern Great
Basin. This feature will promote not only thunderstorm chances
across much of the Great Basin, but should also result in dry/windy
conditions across parts of NV, UT, and AZ.
...Dry Thunderstorms...
The 00 UTC MFR RAOB sampled a PWAT value of 0.96 inches, which is
higher than previously anticipated by model guidance. Consequently,
MRMS QPE and surface stations have reported pockets of wetting
rainfall up to 0.25 inches associated with thunderstorms across
southern OR late Sunday evening/early Monday morning. Regional
soundings further east into the Four Corners region sampled a drier
air mass (especially within the boundary layer), but GOES PWAT
imagery suggests higher-quality moisture is advecting northward into
western NV ahead of the upper-level disturbance. This will likely
favor wet thunderstorms across northern CA into southern OR where
most guidance shows a consistent signal for wetting rainfall, which
warranted removal from the dry thunderstorm risk area. A mix of wet
and dry thunderstorms across the CA/OR/NV tri-state region should
transition to predominantly dry thunderstorms with southeastward
extent towards the Four Corners region on the fringe of the
mid-level moisture plume. In general, fuels remain very dry across
the broader region and should support lightning ignitions outside of
where heavier precipitation cores have occurred (mainly over
northern NV/southern OR) over the past 12-24 hours.
...Eastern Nevada into Utah and Arizona...
Modest surface pressure falls across the northern Great Basin
through the afternoon will result in increasing southerly winds
across southeast NV into adjacent portions of UT and AZ. Latest
ensemble guidance continues to show reasonably strong probabilities
for sustained winds near 15 mph with gusts upwards of 20-30 mph.
Relative humidity values should fall to near 15% as temperatures
climb into the 90s, resulting in areas of elevated fire weather
conditions. While confidence in elevated conditions is greatest
across southeast NV into southwest UT, more aggressive solutions
suggests elevated conditions may extend into eastern UT.
..Moore.. 07/06/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
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SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0206 AM CDT Mon Jul 06 2026
Valid 071200Z - 081200Z
...Synopsis...
Fire weather concerns will continue to be driven by a combination of
dry thunderstorm potential as well as dry/windy conditions across
portions of the West on Tuesday. A slight eastward shift of the
upper ridge from the Four Corners into the central Rockies is
expected through Tuesday evening. This will establish a more
west/southwest flow regime across the West Coast that will be
favorable for downslope flow off the northern Sierra Nevada and
portions of the Cascades. Additionally, a plume of mid-level
moisture will continue to spread east/northeast from the western
Great Basin towards the Four Corners/central Rockies that will
promote dry thunderstorm potential across a broad area.
...Dry Thunderstorms...
Mid-level moisture spreading eastward over the next 24 hours will
impinge on a plume of steep mid-level lapse rates and dry
boundary-layer conditions currently in place across the Four Corners
and central Rockies. This should promote adequate buoyancy for weak
convection by Tuesday afternoon. PWAT values are currently forecast
to range from 0.75 inches from the northern Great Basin to around
0.5 inch across UT and western CO. Forcing for ascent driven by weak
perturbations within the mean southwesterly flow regime over the
northern Great Basin should decrease eastward into the Four Corners
were orographic ascent will yield more isolated thunderstorms. This
will likely result in a mix of wet and dry thunderstorms across the
northern Great Basin with increasingly dry thunderstorms with
east/southeastward extent. Portions of central OR were removed from
the risk area owing to the potential for wetting rainfall over the
next 24 hours. However, portions of the area may be at risk for dry
lightning if rainfall amounts are more limited than currently
anticipated.
...Cascades into the northern Sierra Nevada...
The establishment of a southwest flow regime across the Cascades and
northern Sierra Nevada will promote strengthening downslope flow
along the eastern slopes. Latest forecast guidance suggests that the
driest and windiest conditions will emerge across northeast
CA/northwest NV where sustained winds between 15-20 mph will likely
coincide with 10-15% RH minimums. Further north, cooler conditions
will result in more sparse coverage of elevated conditions, but
favored gaps will likely see 15-20 mph winds with RH values falling
into the 15-25% range by late afternoon.
...Eastern Nevada into western Utah...
Another day of dry and windy conditions is expected for Tuesday as
weak troughing across the northern Great Basin drives an uptick in
southwesterly flow across the region. Confidence in 10-15% RH
minimums is fairly high given downslope trajectories off the
southern Sierra Nevada over the preceding 24 hours, and latest
HREF/REFS guidance suggests wind speeds will likely reach 15 mph for
many locations, resulting in a few hours of sustained elevated
conditions.
..Moore.. 07/06/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
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