RSS Mesoscale Discussions from Storm Prediction Center
No watches are valid as of Tue Jan 27 16:08:01 UTC 2026.
No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Tue Jan 27 16:08:01 UTC 2026.
SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0642 AM CST Tue Jan 27 2026
Valid 271300Z - 281200Z
...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are unlikely today.
...Synopsis...
Several shortwave troughs are forecast to progress eastward today
within the cyclonic flow aloft covering much of the central and
eastern CONUS. At the same time, upper ridging will move eastward
across the western CONUS to the Intermountain West and a strong
shortwave trough will move across the Pacific Northwest. This
evolution will lead to a modestly amplified trough/ridge/trough
pattern over the CONUS by early tomorrow.
Even with this relatively progressive pattern, the extensive and
cold airmass in place over much of the CONUS will promote offshore
trajectories and cold/stable sensible weather. Strongest convection
today is anticipated with a frontal band attendant to the Pacific
Northwest shortwave trough. However, this convection will still be
too shallow to produce lightning.
..Mosier/Broyles.. 01/27/2026
Read more
SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1000 AM CST Tue Jan 27 2026
Valid 271630Z - 281200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated thunderstorms may occur this evening and tonight across
parts of northern California and coastal southwest Oregon. Severe
thunderstorms are not forecast.
...Synopsis and Discussion...
Persistent mid/upper-level troughing over the central/eastern CONUS
and cold/offshore low-level trajectories will keep thunderstorm
potential very low today, with one possible exception. A mid-level
shortwave trough will move quickly eastward over the eastern Pacific
today, and eventually overspread the Pacific Northwest this
evening/tonight. Cool temperatures aloft (around -24 to -28C at 500
mb) should support modest MUCAPE and the potential for isolated
lightning flashes with a loosely organized band of convection that
is expected to approach the coast of northern CA and southwest OR
mainly after 28/00Z. But with limited low-level moisture and overall
weak instability, severe thunderstorms are not forecast.
..Gleason/Kerr.. 01/27/2026
Read more
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1006 AM CST Tue Jan 27 2026
Valid 271700Z - 281200Z
The previous forecast (see below) remains on track.
..Squitieri.. 01/27/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0149 AM CST Tue Jan 27 2026/
...Synopsis...
Dry post-frontal northwesterly flow across the southern Florida
Peninsula will bring a period of Elevated fire concerns today.
Relative humidity reductions to around 20-25% will overlap with
sustained northwesterly flow around 10-15 mph. Fuels in this region
are critically dry with ongoing drought conditions. The frontal
passage did bring some rainfall across portions of the peninsula but
little to no rainfall occurred across the far southern west coast,
where the Elevated was maintained with this outlook.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
|
