RSS Mesoscale Discussions from Storm Prediction Center
No watches are valid as of Mon Jan 12 08:27:02 UTC 2026.
No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Mon Jan 12 08:27:02 UTC 2026.
SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1052 PM CST Sun Jan 11 2026
Valid 121200Z - 131200Z
...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are not expected today and tonight.
...Synopsis...
Surface high pressure will be in place from the Intermountain West
to the Southeast today. The expansive high pressure extending from
the southern Plains to the Southeast will maintain continental
trajectories and offshore flow, cutting off Gulf moisture. The lack
of boundary layer moisture, and cool/stable conditions will preclude
thunderstorm activity through Monday night/early Tuesday.
..Leitman.. 01/12/2026
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SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1257 AM CST Mon Jan 12 2026
Valid 131200Z - 141200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not forecast across the U.S. on Tuesday or
Tuesday night.
...DISCUSSION...
Cyclonic northwesterly mid-level flow will be in place across much
of the central and eastern U.S. on Tuesday, as an embedded shortwave
trough digs southeastward into the Upper Midwest. A relatively cool
and dry airmass will be in place over most of the nation. The only
exception will be in south Florida, where surface dewpoints are
forecast to be in the lower to mid 60s F. As temperatures warm
during the day, isolated non-severe thunderstorms will be possible
over the Florida Keys and in the vicinity of Miami. Elsewhere across
the continental U.S., thunderstorms are not expected to develop
Tuesday and Tuesday night.
..Broyles.. 01/12/2026
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SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0225 AM CST Mon Jan 12 2026
Valid 141200Z - 151200Z
...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
No thunderstorms are forecast across the U.S. on Wednesday and
Wednesday night.
...DISCUSSION...
A large-scale upper-level trough will dig southeastward into the
east-central U.S. on Wednesday, as a cold front moves southeastward
into the Appalachians. A large area of high pressure will settle
into the Great Plains and Mississippi Valley, reinforcing a cool and
dry airmass across the region. For this reason, thunderstorms are
not expected on Wednesday and Wednesday night across the continental
U.S.
..Broyles.. 01/12/2026
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SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0204 AM CST Mon Jan 12 2026
Valid 121200Z - 131200Z
...Synopsis...
Broad troughing is forecast to persist over the eastern US with high
pressure building to the West. This will favor continued
northwesterly flow over much of the CONUS. A stronger shortwave
trough within the flow aloft will pass over the northern and central
Rockies this afternoon. This, along with a strong surface pressure
gradient will boost westerly low-level flow across the region,
supporting an increase in fire-weather concerns.
...Central and Northern High Plains...
Strong downslope winds are expected across much of the Rockies and
adjacent High Plains today as upper-level ridging rapidly builds
over the West. A shortwave trough embedded within strong
west/northwesterly flow will move southeastward overspreading an
unusually warm and dry airmass for January. West-northwest winds of
20-30 mph with higher gusts will combine with relative humidity in
the 20-30% range and dry fine fuels to facilitate an increased fire
danger across lower elevations of central MT and northern WY.
Farther south winds are expected to be somewhat weaker and displaced
from the stronger flow aloft. Still, strong westerly pressure
gradients and drier surface conditions could promote a few hours of
locally elevated fire-weather conditions over portions of CO/WY/NE
where fine fuels are very dry.
...Southern Plains...
Across the Southern Plains, dry southwest flow will likely support
dry and breezy conditions over parts of OK/TX. Afternoon RH values
will likely fall below 20%, though winds will be generally light.
While recent rainfall has tempered fuels to some degree, fine fuels
remain fairly dry and, some localized fire-weather concerns are
possible.
..Lyons.. 01/12/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
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SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0207 AM CST Mon Jan 12 2026
Valid 131200Z - 141200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
...Synopsis...
Broad northwesterly flow will persist over much of the CONUS as
eastern US troughing continues to intensify. A stronger shortwave
within the broad troughing will move southward over the central US
Tuesday. An accompanying cold front will also move southward with
strong surface winds along and behind it.
..Central High Plains...
As the upper trough over the East deepens, flow aloft will turn more
northerly ahead of the strong shortwave trough. This, along with the
surface cold front will support strong northerly/northwesterly
surface winds across parts of WY northern CO and NE Tuesday. At
least brief dry and breezy conditions are possible in this region
owing to the downslope winds. Currently, RH values appear only
modest owing to cloud cover and rapidly decreasing temperatures.
However, very dry fine fuels and in some dry/breezy conditions could
support brief locally elevated fire-weather potential Tuesday
afternoon before diminishing overnight.
...Southern Plains...
A period of dry southwesterly flow is forecast to develop across the
southern Plains D2/Tuesday as upper troughing intensifies over the
northeastern US. Winds are not forecast to be overly strong, but
gusts around 15 mph are possible. These winds, overlapping with low
RH of 15-20% during the afternoon could support some localized
fire-weather concerns. However, recent rainfall should preclude
broader potential.
...Southeast...
Dry conditions will likely persist over the Southeast as surface
high pressure settles south of the deepening low in the wake of an
earlier cold front. While strong winds appear unlikely, RH values
below 35% and drier fuels could support some brief localized
fire-weather concerns, especially across parts of coastal GA and the
Carolinas where little rainfall has occurred recently.
..Lyons.. 01/12/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
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