SPC - No watches are valid as of Wed Mar 4 03:19:02 UTC 2026

No watches are valid as of Wed Mar  4 03:19:02 UTC 2026.

SPC MD 129

MD 0129 CONCERNING FREEZING RAIN FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN NEW YORK INTO SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL NEW ENGLAND

Mesoscale Discussion 0129
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0552 PM CST Tue Mar 03 2026

Areas affected...portions of eastern New York into southern and
central New England

Concerning...Freezing rain 

Valid 032352Z - 040545Z

SUMMARY...An area of freezing rain, with some snow on the northern
edge, will continue for the next 4-6 hours.

DISCUSSION...A broad precipitation shield is ongoing across portions
of eastern New York into southern and central New England this
afternoon amidst broad isentropic ascent within the 925-700 mb
layer. Area VWPs have sampled increasing 1-3 km AGL flow over the
past few hours to 40-50 knots. Aided by ascent within the right
entrance region of an upper-level jet streak, this is supporting
ongoing freezing rain, with rates occasionally exceeding 0.06" per 3
hours. Forecast soundings indicate the 850 mb warm nose will expand
farther north this evening amidst the low-level warm air advection
regime. With surface temperatures forecast to remain below freezing
(upper 20s to lower 30s), expectation is for freezing rain to
persist for the next 4-6 hours with a gradual northward expansion.
The greatest potential for heavier rates is anticipated along a
corridor from far eastern New York across western Massachusetts and
into far southern New Hampshire where the strongest ascent is
forecast to overlap favorable thermodynamic profiles to support the
heaviest precipitation rates. Farther to the north, maximum column
temperatures are likely to remain below freezing and are expected to
support snow as the primary precipitation type. Veering low-level
winds and drier mid-level air will then accompany a cold frontal
passage later tonight, bringing an end to precipitation by 8-10 UTC
(3-5 AM EST).

..Chalmers/Lyons.. 03/03/2026

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...GYX...BOX...BTV...OKX...ALY...BGM...

LAT...LON   41897071 41637094 41387151 41317225 41277299 41237350
            41357412 41527440 42177445 42557418 42907344 43167266
            43417190 43617116 43547064 43347049 43127046 42807061
            42427065 42007066 41897071 

SPC Mar 4, 2026 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
      
Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0647 PM CST Tue Mar 03 2026

Valid 040100Z - 041200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF
THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO MO...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe hail may occur this evening into the overnight hours
across parts of the southern/central Plains into Missouri and
western Illinois.

...01z Update - Southern Plain to Western IL...

Only minor changes were made to the Level 1 - Marginal risk across
Oklahoma. For much of the day, hi-res CAMs guidance has been
somewhat bifurcated with respect to location of stronger storm
development. Most guidance focuses elevated thunderstorms with hail
potential after 06z from the northeast TX Panhandle into northern
OK/southern KS in a warm advection regime to the north of a surface
cold front. However, the RRFS and some MPAS members also indicated
another corridor of storm development further south from southwest
OK through central OK closer to the surface boundary. The risk area
has been nudged south a small amount to account for trends in
guidance and the location of the surface boundary as of 0030z. 

Otherwise, the forecast remains on track and overall expectations
unchanged from prior outlooks, with overnight thunderstorms expected
to pose mainly a hail risk from the OK vicinity northeast into
west-central/southwest IL.

..Leitman.. 03/04/2026


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