RSS Mesoscale Discussions from Storm Prediction Center
WW 239 SEVERE TSTM CO NE 212055Z - 220400Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 239
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
255 PM MDT Thu May 21 2026
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of
Northeast Colorado
Nebraska Panhandle
* Effective this Thursday afternoon and evening from 255 PM until
1000 PM MDT.
* Primary threats include...
Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2
inches in diameter possible
Isolated damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible
A tornado or two possible
SUMMARY...Thunderstorms will develop this afternoon and spread
eastward across the watch area. A few supercells are possible,
posing a risk of large hail. A tornado or two is possible by early
evening as storms track into the eastern half of the watch.
The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 50
statute miles east and west of a line from 55 miles north northwest
of Sidney NE to 50 miles southwest of Burlington CO. For a complete
depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update
(WOUS64 KWNS WOU9).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.
&&
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 238...
AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A
few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector
28030.
...Hart
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WW 238 SEVERE TSTM CO KS NM OK TX 211920Z - 220300Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 238
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
220 PM CDT Thu May 21 2026
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of
Southeast Colorado
Southwest Kansas
Northeast New Mexico
Western Oklahoma Panhandle
Northwest Texas Panhandle
* Effective this Thursday afternoon and evening from 220 PM until
1000 PM CDT.
* Primary threats include...
Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2
inches in diameter possible
Isolated damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible
A tornado or two possible
SUMMARY...Thunderstorms developing off the higher terrain of
northeast New Mexico will build eastward across the watch area
through the afternoon and evening. Large hail is the main concern
with the strongest cells.
The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 75
statute miles east and west of a line from 15 miles northeast of
Lamar CO to 40 miles south southwest of Clayton NM. For a complete
depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update
(WOUS64 KWNS WOU8).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.
&&
AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A
few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector
27030.
...Hart
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WW 0239 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 239
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NW LIC TO
10 SW AKO TO 25 NNE ITR.
..KERR..05/22/26
ATTN...WFO...GLD...BOU...CYS...
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 239
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
COC017-039-063-073-121-125-220240-
CO
. COLORADO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CHEYENNE ELBERT KIT CARSON
LINCOLN WASHINGTON YUMA
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
Read more
WW 0238 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 238
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 SSW DHT
TO 20 E EHA TO 30 NW GCK.
..KERR..05/22/26
ATTN...WFO...PUB...DDC...ABQ...AMA...
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 238
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
KSC067-093-189-220240-
KS
. KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
GRANT KEARNY STEVENS
OKC139-220240-
OK
. OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
TEXAS
TXC111-195-205-341-421-220240-
TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
DALLAM HANSFORD HARTLEY
MOORE SHERMAN
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MD 0822 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 238... FOR PARTS OF SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS AND THE OKLAHOMA/TEXAS PANHANDLE VICINITY
Mesoscale Discussion 0822
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0843 PM CDT Thu May 21 2026
Areas affected...parts of southwestern Kansas and the Oklahoma/Texas
Panhandle vicinity
Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 238...
Valid 220143Z - 220315Z
The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 238
continues.
SUMMARY...Strong to locally severe wind gusts remain possible
another couple of hours with the ongoing cluster of storms.
However, sufficient weakening trends already appear underway to
preclude the issuance of another severe weather watch and allow for
the expiration of the current watch by 10 PM CDT.
DISCUSSION...A couple of embedded meso-beta scale circulations have
evolved and remain evident with the quasi-linear convective system
propagating through the high plains, which has generated at least a
narrow cold pool with 3-4 mb 2-hourly surface pressure rises sampled
at Dalhart in the 01Z surface observations. However, forward motion
has remained rather modest, and convective intensities appear to be
trending downward. The onset of diurnal boundary-layer cooling,
coupled with continued warming in lower/mid-levels, will lead to
increasing inhibition through the evening, which is expected to
maintain weakening convective trends and diminishing severe weather
potential.
..Kerr.. 05/22/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...DDC...AMA...
LAT...LON 36040262 36540199 37330165 38060162 38360032 37459989
35990072 35370195 36040262
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN
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SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0740 PM CDT Thu May 21 2026
Valid 220100Z - 221200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...
...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms capable of producing large hail and isolated severe
wind gusts will continue across parts of the central and southern
High Plains evening. A tornado may also occur in the central High
Plains.
...Central and Southern High Plains...
The latest water vapor imagery shows a mid-level shortwave trough
extending southward from the northern High Plains into the central
Rockies, with another smaller-scale trough located in the central
High Plains. At the surface, a low is located over southeast
Colorado with a trough extending southward into eastern New Mexico.
Scattered severe thunderstorms are ongoing in northeast Colorado. A
severe line segment is also ongoing from far southwest Kansas
south-southwestward into the far northwestern Texas Panhandle. These
storms are located along and near an axis of moderate instability,
where the RAP has MLCAPE in the 1000 to 2000 J/kg range. Moderate
deep-layer shear is analyzed along the axis of instability. The
Goodland WSR-88D VWP has 0-6km shear near 50 knots, which will
support a threat for supercells this evening. The stronger storms
will be capable of producing large hail and isolated severe wind
gusts...see MCDs 821 and 819.
Further south into the southern High Plains, two areas of scattered
strong thunderstorms are ongoing. The first is west of Lubbock from
far eastern New Mexico into west Texas. The second is in the western
Texas Hill Country. The storms are located along an axis of moderate
instability. Along this axis, deep-layer shear appears sufficient
for an isolated severe threat early this evening.
..Broyles.. 05/22/2026
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SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0442 PM CDT Thu May 21 2026
Valid 231200Z - 291200Z
A ridge of high pressure will build across the West this weekend,
gradually sliding towards the central U.S. as guidance depicts a
robust upper trough to enter the Pacific Northwest early next week.
An Atlantic ridge over the Eastern Seaboard is likely to persist
through the forecast period, with multiple rounds of mid-level
perturbations promoting repeat opportunities for precipitation. The
overall pattern suggests dampened fire weather concerns through the
weekend, with the exception of localized breezy conditions across
parts of the West.
Increasing southwesterly flow ahead of the aforementioned incoming
upper trough and a strengthening surface low over eastern OR/western
ID is expected to promote widespread dry and breezy conditions on
Day 5/Monday. 40% Critical probabilities have been introduced to
portions of the Great Basin and Northwest where drying fine fuels
may present fire concerns. As the trough continues dig southward on
Day 6/Tuesday, fire weather highlights may be warranted in future
outlooks as confidence increases in the evolution of the overall
pattern, and the overlap of dry/breezy conditions atop receptive
fuels is recognized.
..Elizalde-Garcia.. 05/21/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
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