RSS Mesoscale Discussions from Storm Prediction Center
No watches are valid as of Mon Apr 6 07:30:02 UTC 2026.
No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Mon Apr 6 07:30:02 UTC 2026.
SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1241 AM CDT Mon Apr 06 2026
Valid 061200Z - 071200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected today across the
Florida Peninsula, and portions of the Four Corners, northern
Rockies, and eastern Great Lakes. No severe threat is forecast.
...Synopsis...
A broad mid-level trough will begin exiting the Northeast and
overspreading the Atlantic as another mid-level trough impinges on
the Pacific Northwest and a lower amplitude impulse traverses the
Southwest today. Much of the northern, central, and eastern CONUS
will be dominated by surface high pressure while surface lee
troughing, with dry low-level trajectories, takes place over the
southern High Plains. As such, convective potential will be limited
over the much of the U.S. with few exceptions. A few embedded
mid-level impulses, accompanied by cooler temperatures aloft, will
foster enough lift amid scant buoyancy to encourage a few lightning
flashes across the northern Rockies, Four Corners region, and the
eastern Great Lakes today.
The best chance for organized thunderstorm potential will be over
the FL Peninsula, where ample low-level moisture will exist in
proximity to a stalled frontal boundary. Afternoon peak heating will
support scattered thunderstorm development amid tall, thin CAPE
profiles, but relatively poor vertical wind shear. While strong
gusts may accompany some of the deeper storm cores, the threat for
severe storms appears too low for the inclusion of severe
wind-driven probabilities at this time.
..Squitieri/Chalmers.. 04/06/2026
Read more
SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1245 AM CDT Mon Apr 06 2026
Valid 071200Z - 081200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected on Tuesday across
parts of the Florida Peninsula, and in the southern Rockies. No
severe threat is forecast across the U.S. Tuesday and Tuesday night.
...DISCUSSION...
An upper-level trough will move through the Northeast on Tuesday, as
a cold front moves slowly across the Florida Peninsula. South of the
boundary, surface dewpoints in the 60s F will contribute to weak
instability. Scattered thunderstorms will be possible within this
airmass, mainly across the southern and central Florida Peninsula in
the afternoon. Additional storms are expected on Tuesday from far
west Texas northward into the southern Rockies. No severe threat is
forecast across the continental U.S. Tuesday and Tuesday night.
..Broyles.. 04/06/2026
Read more
SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0228 AM CDT Mon Apr 06 2026
Valid 081200Z - 091200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE CENTRAL PLAINS...
...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms with isolated large hail will be possible in parts of
the central Plains Wednesday night.
...Central Plains...
An upper-level trough will move eastward across the north-central
U.S. on Wednesday, as low-level moisture advection takes place in
the southern and central Plains. At the surface, a cold front from
will advance southward into the central Plains. By Wednesday
evening, the front is forecast to stall over northern Kansas, with
scattered thunderstorms developing near and to the northern
boundary. NAM forecast soundings in the vicinity of the front late
Wednesday evening have a low-level temperature inversion with MUCAPE
near 1200 J/kg. 700-500 mb lapse rates are forecast around 8 C/km
with effective shear near 40 knots. This environment should support
a threat for isolated large hail with elevated supercells. The
threat may continue into the overnight period, as a low-level jet
strengthens.
..Broyles.. 04/06/2026
Read more
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0213 AM CDT Mon Apr 06 2026
Valid 061200Z - 071200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN
HIGH PLAINS...
...Synopsis...
Upper-level ridging over the West will begin to dampen today ahead
of an incoming mid-level trough shifting into the Pacific Northwest
and as a second, more subtle, mid-level shortwave trough traverses
eastward over the Southwest. Concurrently, longwave troughing will
persist across the Northeast, with a cold front progressing slowly
southward across the central Great Plains and Midwest.
...Portions of the central/southern High Plains...
Surface high pressure across the southern Great Plains in tandem
with a surface low forecast to strengthen over eastern Colorado will
promote a tightened pressure gradient across portions of the
central/southern High Plains today. Sustained south-southwesterly
surface winds of 20-25 mph are forecast to overlap very low RH of
10-15% for several hours this afternoon. With dry conditions across
the region on Sunday helping to further pre-condition already
receptive fuels, this combination of wind/RH is expected to support
Critical fire weather conditions across the western Oklahoma
Panhandle, northern Texas Panhandle, northeastern New Mexico,
southeastern Colorado, and southwestern Kansas. Meanwhile, sustained
15-20 mph surface winds overlapping low RH of 15-20% will promote
elevated fire weather concerns across adjacent areas of the
central/southern High Plains.
Latest guidance consensus continues to suggest that the
aforementioned, slow-moving cold front will approach the northern
portions of the drawn area after sunset before becoming largely
stationary. Areas that do see the passage of the cold front can
expect a shift to east-northeasterly winds and at least some
increase in relative humidity. The progression of this front will be
closely monitored with future outlook issuances.
..Chalmers.. 04/06/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0214 AM CDT Mon Apr 06 2026
Valid 071200Z - 081200Z
...Synopsis...
Upper-level ridging over the West will continue to dampen on Day
2/Tuesday as an incoming trough over the Pacific Northwest moves
eastward along the Canadian border and a second mid-level shortwave
trough ejects eastward over the southern Great Plains. This will
favor largely zonal flow across much of the central/northern
Rockies. At the surface, a cold front will shift offshore of South
Florida, with high pressure in place across the Midwest. A surface
low will simultaneously shift eastward along the Canada/Montana
border.
...Portions of eastern Georgia into the Florida Panhandle...
Sustained northeasterly winds of 10-15 mph along the southern
periphery of a surface high positioned across the Great Lakes region
are forecast to overlap reduced RH values of 25-35% (locally lower)
during peak mixing Tuesday afternoon. With receptive fuels in place
across a region characterized by ongoing extreme/exceptional drought
and little to no precipitation accumulation over the past 24-48
hours, this is expected to promote a few hours of elevated to
locally critical fire weather conditions from eastern Georgia
southwestward into the central Florida Panhandle, including the
Apalachicola National Forest. Additional light rainfall is possible
tonight/tomorrow across portions of the northern Florida Peninsula
into the eastern Panhandle (in the vicinity of the southern portions
of the drawn area), and this will be monitored for future outlook
issuances.
...Portions of the central High Plains...
The aforementioned zonal flow across portions of the
central/northern Rockies is expected to promote dry, downslope flow
across portions of the central/northern High Plains. Latest guidance
indicates that sustained westerly winds of 15-20 mph may briefly
overlap reduced RH of 15-20% Tuesday afternoon across portions of
eastern Wyoming. While this may promote locally elevated fire
weather concerns across the region, Elevated highlights have been
withheld at this time given the expected temporary overlap of
elevated winds/RH. Trends will continue to be monitored.
..Chalmers.. 04/06/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
|
