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Thursday July 10, 2025 | |||||||
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SPC Severe Thunderstorm Watch 503WW 503 SEVERE TSTM IA NE 110045Z - 110700ZURGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 503 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 745 PM CDT Thu Jul 10 2025 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Southwest Iowa Southeast Nebraska * Effective this Thursday night and Friday morning from 745 PM until 200 AM CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging winds likely with isolated significant gusts to 75 mph possible Isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter possible A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...Clusters of thunderstorms over Nebraska will track eastward for the next several hours across the watch area. Locally damaging wind gusts are the primary concern, although a few of the storms may also pose a risk of large hail or even a tornado. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 55 statute miles north and south of a line from 30 miles west of Lincoln NE to 10 miles east of Des Moines IA. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU3). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 501...WW 502... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 65 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 27030. ...HartRead more SPC Severe Thunderstorm Watch 502WW 502 SEVERE TSTM CO KS NE 102030Z - 110300ZURGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 502 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 230 PM MDT Thu Jul 10 2025 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Eastern Colorado Western and Central Kansas Southwest and South-Central Nebraska * Effective this Thursday afternoon and evening from 230 PM until 900 PM MDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging winds and isolated significant gusts to 75 mph likely Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter possible SUMMARY...Thunderstorm coverage is expected to increase across a wide area from the Colorado Front Range into western Kansas and south-central Nebraska this afternoon, with storms continuing into the evening. Some isolated hail is possible with these storms, particularly along the Front Range, but the primary severe hazard is expected to be strong wind gusts. Some wind gusts to 75 mph are possible. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 130 statute miles east and west of a line from 25 miles northeast of Imperial NE to 15 miles east southeast of Elkhart KS. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU2). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 501... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 65 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 25025. ...MosierRead more SPC Tornado Watch 501WW 501 TORNADO IA NE SD 102010Z - 110300ZURGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 501 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 310 PM CDT Thu Jul 10 2025 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Far Western Iowa Northeast Nebraska Extreme Southeast South Dakota * Effective this Thursday afternoon and evening from 310 PM until 1000 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... A couple tornadoes possible Scattered damaging winds and isolated significant gusts to 80 mph likely Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter likely SUMMARY...Thunderstorm development is anticipated within the very unstable airmass across central/northeast NE this afternoon. Environmental conditions support initial supercells capable of all severe hazards, including large to very large hail and tornadoes. Upscale growth is anticipated after the initial cellular mode, with the resultant convective line progressing quickly eastward. Strong wind gusts are possible within this line, including gusts over 75 mph. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 75 statute miles north and south of a line from 5 miles north northwest of Broken Bow NE to 10 miles east of Denison IA. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU1). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 70 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 27035. ...MosierRead more SPC Severe Thunderstorm Watch 503 Status ReportsWW 0503 Status UpdatesSTATUS FOR WATCH 0503 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YETRead more SPC Severe Thunderstorm Watch 502 Status ReportsWW 0502 Status UpdatesSTATUS REPORT ON WW 502 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM RTN TO 35 WSW SPD TO 10 NW LAA TO 35 NE LIC TO 45 ESE FCL. ..THORNTON..07/11/25 ATTN...WFO...BOU...PUB...GLD...DDC...GID...LBF... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 502 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS COC009-011-017-061-063-075-087-095-099-115-121-125-110140- CO . COLORADO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BACA BENT CHEYENNE KIOWA KIT CARSON LOGAN MORGAN PHILLIPS PROWERS SEDGWICK WASHINGTON YUMA KSC023-025-033-039-047-051-055-057-063-065-067-069-071-075-081- 083-093-097-101-109-119-129-135-137-141-145-147-153-163-165-171- 175-179-181-183-187-189-193-195-199-203-110140- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CHEYENNE CLARK COMANCHE DECATUR EDWARDS ELLIS FINNEY FORD GOVE GRAHAM GRANT GRAY GREELEY HAMILTON HASKELL HODGEMAN KEARNY KIOWA LANE LOGAN MEADERead more SPC Tornado Watch 501 Status ReportsWW 0501 Status UpdatesSTATUS REPORT ON WW 501 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..SPC..07/11/25 ATTN...WFO...OAX...FSD...LBF...GID... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 501 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS IAC085-133-149-193-110140- IA . IOWA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE HARRISON MONONA PLYMOUTH WOODBURY NEC003-011-021-023-027-037-039-041-043-051-053-055-071-077-089- 093-107-115-119-121-125-139-141-143-149-153-155-163-167-173-175- 177-179-183-110140- NE . NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ANTELOPE BOONE BURT BUTLER CEDAR COLFAX CUMING CUSTER DAKOTA DIXON DODGE DOUGLAS GARFIELD GREELEY HOLT HOWARD KNOX LOUP MADISON MERRICK NANCE PIERCE PLATTE POLK ROCK SARPY SAUNDERS SHERMAN STANTON THURSTONRead more SPC MD 1636MD 1636 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 502... FOR EASTERN COLORADO...WESTERN KANSAS...FAR SOUTHERN NEBRASKA
Mesoscale Discussion 1636 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0656 PM CDT Thu Jul 10 2025 Areas affected...eastern Colorado...western Kansas...far southern Nebraska Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 502... Valid 102356Z - 110200Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 502 continues. SUMMARY...Instances of severe wind and hail remain possible in WW502. DISCUSSION...Several clusters of storms continue across far eastern CO into western KS/NE. Storms are within a region of increasing MLCIN. Above the inversion, elevated instability remains for storms rooted above the surface. Storms are likely elevated and will mainly pose a risk for large hail, though some more surface based storms may produce occasional severe winds, primarily across northeastern Colorado where MLCIN is weaker and deep layer shear around 40-50 kts remains for organization. ..Thornton.. 07/10/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LBF...DDC...GLD...AMA...PUB...BOU...ABQ... LAT...LON 37080418 37680334 38190314 38590314 39080304 39210309 39850389 40230430 40460454 40850423 40820262 40670221 40420172 39920089 39030059 37690109 37060166 36610212 36440277 36450350 36560387 37080418 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 INRead more SPC MD 1635MD 1635 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 501... FOR EASTERN NEBRASKA...WESTERN IOWAMesoscale Discussion 1635 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0645 PM CDT Thu Jul 10 2025 Areas affected...Eastern Nebraska...Western Iowa Concerning...Tornado Watch 501... Valid 102345Z - 110145Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 501 continues. SUMMARY...Severe threat continues across eastern Nebraska into western Iowa. DISCUSSION...Short-wave ridging that has been observed over the lower MO Valley is shifting east as a secondary, notable short-wave trough is advancing across central SD/western NE. Low-level warm advection is focused into this region, just north of a boundary that is draped from south of Grand Island-Omaha-north of Des Moines. This warm-advection regime favors rotation, and a few slow-moving supercells can be expected in advance of the short wave this evening. While some supercell structures are possible, with time convection may evolve into larger clusters, and possibly an MCS. LLJ is forecast to strengthen across northeast KS into southwest IA later this evening, and this should encourage more robust convection to propagate into this portion of the MO Valley with time. ..Darrow.. 07/10/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...DMX...FSD...OAX...GID...LBF... LAT...LON 40409966 42579967 43069519 40889519 40409966 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 INRead more SPC MD 1634MD 1634 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR EASTERN IA INTO NORTHERN ILLINOIS
Mesoscale Discussion 1634 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0613 PM CDT Thu Jul 10 2025 Areas affected...Eastern IA into northern Illinois Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 102313Z - 110115Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Isolated hail/wind, and perhaps a brief tornado, are possible across eastern Iowa into northern Illinois this evening. Watch is not currently anticipated. DISCUSSION...Low-amplitude short-wave trough is evident in water-vapor imagery, very near the MS River, from southeast MN into northwestern IL. Large-scale ascent ahead of this feature appears to be aiding convection across northern IL, just north of a warm front that is draped from south of Chicago to north of Dubuque IA. Low-level warm advection is likely contributing to a few small, slow-moving clusters north of the wind shift. Radar data suggests this activity may be generating locally severe hail, and gusty winds. Wind profiles are not that strong ahead of the short wave, but veering profiles do suggest some rotation is possible. Farther west across eastern IA, scattered thunderstorms have developed just behind the trough within a more buoyant and stronger sheared environment. At times a few updrafts have exhibited supercell characteristics, but updrafts have struggled to organize at times, possibly due to the passage of the short wave. Unless this activity becomes more organized current thinking is the primary concerns will be isolated hail/wind, and perhaps a brief tornado. ..Darrow/Hart.. 07/10/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LOT...ILX...MKX...DVN...ARX...DMX... LAT...LON 42599148 42288778 41328786 41039052 40769277 42599148 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 INRead more SPC Jul 11, 2025 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective OutlookSPC 0100Z Day 1 OutlookDay 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0740 PM CDT Thu Jul 10 2025 Valid 110100Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF WESTERN/CENTRAL KANSAS....EASTERN NEBRASKA...MUCH OF IOWA...PARTS OF NWRN ILLINOIS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorm development remains possible this evening across parts of the central Great Plains into Upper Midwest. This could still include a slowly organizing cluster of storms with potential for strong to severe surface gusts across the eastern Nebraska into Iowa vicinity. ...01Z Update... A belt of 20-30+ kt southerly/westerly lower/mid-tropospheric flow across parts of the central Great Plains into portions of the Upper Midwest may continue to enhance convective development, at least a bit, this evening into the overnight hours. In mid-levels, this includes flow augmented by convectively generated cyclonic circulations, but, in lower-levels, this includes a south-southwesterly low-level jet associated with weak mid-level troughing digging east-southeast of the Wyoming/Colorado Rockies. The low-level jet appears to be focusing a corridor of stronger warm advection across parts of south central through eastern Nebraska, where convective development may still consolidate and grow upscale this evening. Perhaps aided by forcing associated with the synoptic perturbation, or another evolving MCV, it might not be out of the question that activity may slowly organize and acquire increasing inflow of seasonably moist boundary-layer air characterized by sizable CAPE as it tends to propagate eastward overnight. If this occurs, there appears potential for sufficient intensification to support an increasing risk for strong to severe surface gusts. ..Kerr.. 07/11/2025Read more SPC Jul 10, 2025 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective OutlookSPC 2000Z Day 1 OutlookDay 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0259 PM CDT Thu Jul 10 2025 Valid 102000Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE MID-MISSOURI VALLEY... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN COLORADO INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND PORTIONS OF IOWA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms capable of large hail, damaging winds, and perhaps a couple of tornadoes are possible late this afternoon into tonight across parts of the central Great Plains to the Midwest, particularly across the Middle Missouri Valley. Additional severe storms are expected across parts of the Northeast and Southeast. ...20Z Update... In the wake of MCV moving into western Wisconsin, a belt of stronger shear is evident where modest northwesterly flow aloft is positioned over surface southeasterly winds in central/eastern Iowa. Furthermore, temperatures have risen into the upper 80s/low 90s F. Given the potential for widely scattered to scattered storms to develop on the southwestern flank of the MCV, the Slight risk has been expanded into more of eastern Iowa. The remainder of the outlook is unchanged. See the previous discussion for additional details. ..Wendt.. 07/10/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1133 AM CDT Thu Jul 10 2025/ ...Central High Plains through the Central Plains into IA... Recent surface analysis places a low near the NE/CO border, with a moist airmass ahead of it over the central Plains. Satellite imagery also shows a shortwave trough moving through the Great Basin towards the central High Plains. Both of these features are expected to move eastward throughout the day, with the surface low contributing to eventual convective initiation over far southeast SD/northeast NE and northwest IA this afternoon. The shortwave is expected to result in numerous thunderstorms over the high terrain, with these storms then moving eastward into the central High Plains. The thunderstorms that develop near the surface low will encounter a strongly unstable and moderately sheared environment supportive of initial supercells capable of all severe hazards, including very large hail and tornadoes. This activity should quickly grow upscale, with the resulting convective line pushing southeastward into more of northeast NE and western IA. Given ample buoyancy downstream, some significant wind gusts are possible as this line moves eastward/southeastward. Farther west, the thunderstorms moving into the central High Plains will initially be high-based and capable of strong wind gusts as they move into the very deeply mixed airmass downstream. Some amalgamation along cold pools is possible here over time, with the resulting convective line likely moving eastward across south-central NE and central KS. Damaging gusts will be possible as this line moves eastward. ...Mid MS Valley... A well-defined MCV is currently moving across southern MN, with the expectation that it will continue gradually eastward throughout the day. Daytime heating along the southern/southeastern periphery of this vorticity max will likely result in airmass destabilization and moderate buoyancy from eastern IA into southern WI and northern IL this afternoon. Mesoscale ascent attendant to the MCV will interact with this airmass, likely resulting in thunderstorm development. Low to mid-level flow enhanced by the MCV will result in moderate vertical shear and the potential for a few supercells. Given the mesoscale nature of this scenario, overall storm coverage, including the supercell coverage, is uncertain. Any supercells that do develop could result in a threat for all severe hazards, including large hail and a brief tornado. Conditionality of the overall scenario merits only low severe probabilities for now, but higher probabilities maybe needed for the 20Z if trends merit. ...New England and Upper Ohio Valley... A shortwave trough currently is moving through the base of the larger cyclone over central/eastern ON. This shortwave is forecast to continue eastward throughout the day, resulting in broad ascent from the Upper OH Valley into New England. Scattered thunderstorm development is probable during peak afternoon heating, as this wave interacts with moderate buoyancy and vertical shear. A predominantly multicellular mode is anticipated, with damaging winds and isolated hail as the primary risks. A corridor of slightly better low-level moisture is expected over the Champlain Valley vicinity, which could result in both greater storm coverage and stronger, more long-lived updrafts. As a result, there is a small area where higher severe coverage is possible. ...Southeast/Southern Atlantic Seaboard... A very moist airmass is in place across the Southeast and southern Atlantic Seaboard. Recent surface analysis reveals dewpoints in the low to mid 70s areawide. 12Z soundings at FFC, JAX, and CHS sampled PW values of 1.91", 1.97", and 2.14", respectively. This ample low-level moisture will help support airmass destabilization and moderate to strong buoyancy as temperatures increase into the upper 80s and low 90s this afternoon. Subtle ascent along the southern periphery of broad upper troughing will interact with this unstable and buoyant airmass to support scattered strong to severe thunderstorms this afternoon through early/mid-evening. Vertical shear across the region will be very weak, resulting in an outflow-dominant storm mode, with new development then occurring along these outflows. Water-loaded downbursts will be the primary hazard as these clusters gradually move southeastward over time.Read more |
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