RSS Mesoscale Discussions from Storm Prediction Center
WW 499 SEVERE TSTM ND SD 192125Z - 200400Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 499
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
425 PM CDT Sun Jul 19 2026
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of
Central North Dakota
Northern South Dakota
* Effective this Sunday afternoon and evening from 425 PM until
1100 PM CDT.
* Primary threats include...
Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely
Scattered large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter likely
SUMMARY...Thunderstorms are expected to develop and spread
east-southeastward across the watch area this evening. Locally
damaging wind gusts and hail are possible with the strongest storms.
The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 80
statute miles east and west of a line from 65 miles north northeast
of Bismarck ND to 35 miles south southeast of Mobridge SD. For a
complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline
update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU9).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.
&&
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 498...
AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A
few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector
29025.
...Hart
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WW 0499 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 499
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SW Y22 TO
15 SW DVL.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1666
..WEINMAN..07/20/26
ATTN...WFO...BIS...ABR...
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 499
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
NDC015-021-029-031-037-043-045-047-051-059-085-093-103-200240-
ND
. NORTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BURLEIGH DICKEY EMMONS
FOSTER GRANT KIDDER
LAMOURE LOGAN MCINTOSH
MORTON SIOUX STUTSMAN
WELLS
SDC013-021-031-041-045-049-089-107-129-200240-
SD
. SOUTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BROWN CAMPBELL CORSON
DEWEY EDMUNDS FAULK
MCPHERSON POTTER WALWORTH
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
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WW 0498 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 498
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1662
..WENDT..07/19/26
ATTN...WFO...RAH...MHX...AKQ...RNK...
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 498
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
NCC001-007-013-015-029-031-033-037-041-049-051-053-055-057-061-
063-065-067-069-073-077-079-081-083-085-091-093-095-101-103-105-
107-117-123-125-127-131-133-135-137-139-143-145-147-151-153-157-
163-165-167-169-177-181-183-185-187-191-195-192140-
NC
. NORTH CAROLINA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ALAMANCE ANSON BEAUFORT
BERTIE CAMDEN CARTERET
CASWELL CHATHAM CHOWAN
CRAVEN CUMBERLAND CURRITUCK
DARE DAVIDSON DUPLIN
DURHAM EDGECOMBE FORSYTH
FRANKLIN GATES GRANVILLE
GREENE GUILFORD HALIFAX
HARNETT HERTFORD HOKE
HYDE JOHNSTON JONES
LEE LENOIR MARTIN
MONTGOMERY MOORE NASH
NORTHAMPTON ONSLOW ORANGE
PAMLICO PASQUOTANK PERQUIMANS
PERSON PITT RANDOLPH
RICHMOND ROCKINGHAM SAMPSON
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MD 1668 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 499... FOR SOUTH-CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST ND AND NORTH-CENTRAL/NORTHEAST SD
Mesoscale Discussion 1668
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0912 PM CDT Sun Jul 19 2026
Areas affected...south-central/southeast ND and
north-central/northeast SD
Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 499...
Valid 200212Z - 200345Z
The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 499
continues.
SUMMARY...The risk of severe wind gusts will continue spreading
eastward across parts of Severe Thunderstorm Watch 499. Some severe
risk may extend eastward out of the watch, and convective trends are
being monitored.
DISCUSSION...The latest radar data from KBIS indicates some signs of
a consolidating cold pool as storms continue spreading eastward
across south-central ND and north-central SD. In the near-term,
isolated severe hail and locally damaging gusts are the primary
concerns with an evolving cluster and splitting cells. The ABR 00Z
sounding sampled steep midlevel lapse rates atop a warm and very
moist PBL (middle 70s dewpoints), resulting in a strongly unstable
downstream air mass. This, combined with around 50 kt of effective
shear oriented perpendicular to the evolving gust front, could
support a continued risk of severe wind gusts east of Severe
Thunderstorm Watch 499. However, some lingering low-level inhibition
in the ABR sounding and a gradual increase in nocturnal static
stability may temper the overall risk. Current thinking is that a
downstream watch will not be needed, though convective trends are
being monitored.
..Weinman/Hart.. 07/20/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...FGF...ABR...BIS...
LAT...LON 46709937 46839887 46819800 46649736 46369709 45829709
45289727 44969780 44849852 44899950 45079994 45270025
45580025 46709937
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN
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SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0805 PM CDT Sun Jul 19 2026
Valid 200100Z - 201200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE DAKOTAS/UPPER MIDWEST...
...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms capable of large hail and wind gusts
will remain possible mainly across the Dakotas into Minnesota.
...Northern Plains/Upper Midwest...
Severe thunderstorms including some supercells will continue to
focus this evening across the Dakotas, primarily across
south-central/eastern North Dakota as well as north-central/eastern
South Dakota, while also expanding into parts of Minnesota tonight.
Bouts of large hail will remain possible along with severe-caliber
wind gusts. This will be as storms progress east-southeastward with
the primary moisture/instability axis, supported by an amplifying
shortwave trough over Saskatchewan toward Manitoba, and the
development of a modest-strength southwesterly low-level jet across
the Upper Midwest tonight.
...Carolinas/Mid-Atlantic States...
A few strong/locally severe storms could still occur this evening,
but overall storm intensifies are expected to continue to wane with
the loss of daytime heating.
..Guyer.. 07/20/2026
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SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0439 PM CDT Sun Jul 19 2026
Valid 211200Z - 271200Z
...Synopsis...
The extended forecast period exhibits a critical fire weather
pattern for the Pacific Northwest and parts of northern California.
A broad mid-level ridge will dominate over much of Intermountain
West through early this week as troughing across the northeastern
U.S. amplifies midweek. Model guidance suggests better chances of
dry thunderstorm impacts for the Pacific Northwest on Days
3-4/Tuesday-Wednesday as moisture from tropical storm Elida gets
wrapped up along the northwestern periphery of the upper ridge. On
Day 5/Thursday, an incoming upper trough and influence from tropical
storm Elida are expected to contribute to the breakdown of the upper
ridge. As strong southwest-westerly flow overlaps the northwestern
U.S., a returning dry airmass and gusty winds may encourage
lightning holdovers to emerge where dry fuels exist.
...Days 3-4/Tuesday-Wednesday...
The thunderstorm threat across CA and the Pacific Northwest remains
very sensitive to the expected track of a subtropical moisture plume
from tropical storm Elida. Thunderstorms are forecast for northern
CA and portions of the Pacific Northwest on Day 3/Tuesday, and
increasing in coverage on Day 4/Wednesday. While forecast PWATs
range from 0.8-1.2", fast storm motions may limit precipitation
efficiency, generating greater ignition potential as the fuelscape
remains receptive. Localized accumulating rainfall is possible with
wetter thunderstorms, especially areas that receive multiple rounds
of rainfall. For this outlook, 10% dry thunderstorm probabilities
were introduced on Day 4/Wednesday as extended guidance has trended
towards maintaining a dry boundary layer and ample instability.
Probabilities may be adjusted in future outlooks as the upper
pattern is better resolved.
...Days 5-8/Thursday-Sunday...
Following several days of mixed wet/dry thunderstorm potential,
longer term ensemble guidance suggests a return to dry and breezy
conditions across portions of CA and the Pacific Northwest beginning
Day 5/Thursday. Ensembles suggest the upper trough will strengthen
across the northwestern U.S. on Days 6-7/Friday-Saturday, prompting
an expansion of 40% Critical probabilities.
..Elizalde-Garcia.. 07/19/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
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