RSS Mesoscale Discussions from Storm Prediction Center
WW 62 SEVERE TSTM KY TN VA WV 160440Z - 161100Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 62
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1240 AM EDT Mon Mar 16 2026
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of
Eastern Kentucky
Eastern Tennessee
Southwestern Virginia
Southwestern West Virginia
* Effective this Monday morning from 1240 AM until 700 AM EDT.
* Primary threats include...
Scattered damaging winds likely with isolated significant gusts
to 75 mph possible
A tornado or two possible
SUMMARY...A squall line will move from west to east across the Watch
area overnight. Scattered damaging gusts associated with the more
intense portions of bowing segments and inflections within the
squall line will be the primary hazard. A brief tornado is
possible.
The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 60
statute miles east and west of a line from 55 miles north of Jackson
KY to 15 miles southeast of Knoxville TN. For a complete depiction
of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS
WOU2).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.
&&
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 56...WW 57...WW 58...WW
59...WW 60...WW 61...
AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
0 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 65 knots. A
few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 350. Mean storm motion vector
24045.
...Smith
Read more
WW 61 SEVERE TSTM IN KY OH 160350Z - 160800Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 61
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1150 PM EDT Sun Mar 15 2026
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of
Eastern Indiana
Northern and Northeastern Kentucky
Western into Central Ohio
* Effective this Sunday night and Monday morning from 1150 PM
until 400 AM EDT.
* Primary threats include...
Scattered damaging winds likely with isolated significant gusts
to 75 mph possible
A tornado or two possible
SUMMARY...A mature squall line will continue to rapidly move
east-northeast across the Watch area tonight. Bowing line segments
within the larger-scale thunderstorm band will focus the risk for
severe gusts (60-75 mph). A brief tornado is possible mainly near
the strongest and more persistent mesovortices.
The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 70
statute miles east and west of a line from 60 miles north of Dayton
OH to 65 miles southeast of Cincinnati OH. For a complete depiction
of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS
WOU1).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.
&&
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 55...WW 56...WW 57...WW
58...WW 59...WW 60...
AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
0 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 65 knots. A
few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 300. Mean storm motion vector
25045.
...Smith
Read more
WW 60 TORNADO AL LA MS 160225Z - 160900Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Tornado Watch Number 60
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
925 PM CDT Sun Mar 15 2026
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Tornado Watch for portions of
North-Central into Southwest Alabama
Southeast Louisiana
Central and Southern Mississippi
* Effective this Sunday night and Monday morning from 925 PM
until 400 AM CDT.
* Primary threats include...
A couple tornadoes possible
Scattered damaging winds and isolated significant gusts to 75
mph likely
Isolated large hail events to 1 inch in diameter possible
SUMMARY...A severe squall line with embedded cells will continue to
progress east across the central Gulf Coast states through late
tonight. The more intense portions of the larger band of storms may
feature a few supercells and bowing segments, where the threat for
tornadoes and damaging gusts will probably focus.
The tornado watch area is approximately along and 90 statute miles
east and west of a line from 35 miles north northwest of Birmingham
AL to 65 miles east of Lafayette LA. For a complete depiction of the
watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU0).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for
tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch
area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for
threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements
and possible warnings.
&&
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 55...WW 56...WW 57...WW
58...WW 59...
AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail
surface and aloft to 1 inch. Extreme turbulence and surface wind
gusts to 65 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 400. Mean
storm motion vector 28040.
...Smith
Read more
WW 59 TORNADO AL GA TN 160120Z - 160800Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Tornado Watch Number 59
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
820 PM CDT Sun Mar 15 2026
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Tornado Watch for portions of
Northern Alabama
Far Northwest Georgia
Middle into Eastern Tennessee
* Effective this Sunday night and Monday morning from 820 PM
until 300 AM CDT.
* Primary threats include...
A few tornadoes and a couple intense tornadoes possible
Widespread damaging winds and isolated significant gusts to 80
mph likely
Isolated large hail events to 0.5 inches in diameter possible
SUMMARY...Broken bands of severe thunderstorms will move across the
Watch area this evening into the overnight. A few stronger cells
embedded within the bands will potentially pose the greatest severe
risk. A few tornadoes, including the potential for a couple of
strong tornadoes, and severe gusts 60-80 mph are the main threats
with the stronger thunderstorms.
The tornado watch area is approximately along and 95 statute miles
east and west of a line from 55 miles northeast of Nashville TN to
35 miles south southwest of Huntsville AL. For a complete depiction
of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS
WOU9).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for
tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch
area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for
threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements
and possible warnings.
&&
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 53...WW 54...WW 55...WW
56...WW 57...WW 58...
AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail
surface and aloft to 0.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind
gusts to 70 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 450. Mean
storm motion vector 25040.
...Smith
Read more
WW 0062 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 62
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 S CSV TO
35 SSW LOZ TO 45 SE LUK.
..WEINMAN..03/16/26
ATTN...WFO...JKL...RLX...MRX...
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 62
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
KYC011-013-025-051-063-065-071-095-109-115-119-121-125-127-129-
131-133-153-159-165-173-175-189-193-195-197-205-235-237-
160840-
KY
. KENTUCKY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BATH BELL BREATHITT
CLAY ELLIOTT ESTILL
FLOYD HARLAN JACKSON
JOHNSON KNOTT KNOX
LAUREL LAWRENCE LEE
LESLIE LETCHER MAGOFFIN
MARTIN MENIFEE MONTGOMERY
MORGAN OWSLEY PERRY
PIKE POWELL ROWAN
WHITLEY WOLFE
TNC001-009-013-025-029-057-059-063-067-073-089-093-105-145-151-
155-173-160840-
TN
. TENNESSEE COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
Read more
WW 0061 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 61
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 NNW JKL
TO 30 W CMH TO 30 NW MFD.
..WEINMAN..03/16/26
ATTN...WFO...ILN...IND...RLX...
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 61
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
KYC019-043-081-089-135-160740-
KY
. KENTUCKY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BOYD CARTER GRANT
GREENUP LEWIS
OHC001-041-045-047-049-073-079-087-089-097-129-131-141-145-163-
160740-
OH
. OHIO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ADAMS DELAWARE FAIRFIELD
FAYETTE FRANKLIN HOCKING
JACKSON LAWRENCE LICKING
MADISON PICKAWAY PIKE
ROSS SCIOTO VINTON
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
Read more
WW 0060 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 60
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 ESE LFT
TO 30 SW MEI TO 30 NW GAD.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0261
..WEINMAN..03/16/26
ATTN...WFO...BMX...MOB...LIX...JAN...
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 60
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ALC007-009-015-019-021-023-025-047-055-063-065-073-091-105-115-
117-119-121-125-129-131-160740-
AL
. ALABAMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BIBB BLOUNT CALHOUN
CHEROKEE CHILTON CHOCTAW
CLARKE DALLAS ETOWAH
GREENE HALE JEFFERSON
MARENGO PERRY ST. CLAIR
SHELBY SUMTER TALLADEGA
TUSCALOOSA WASHINGTON WILCOX
LAC005-063-103-105-117-160740-
LA
. LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE
ASCENSION LIVINGSTON ST. TAMMANY
TANGIPAHOA WASHINGTON
Read more
WW 0059 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 59
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 NW BHM TO
20 NE CSV TO 15 WSW LOZ.
..WEINMAN..03/16/26
ATTN...WFO...HUN...FFC...OHX...MRX...
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 59
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ALC049-071-095-160740-
AL
. ALABAMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
DEKALB JACKSON MARSHALL
GAC015-047-055-083-111-115-123-129-213-227-295-313-160740-
GA
. GEORGIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BARTOW CATOOSA CHATTOOGA
DADE FANNIN FLOYD
GILMER GORDON MURRAY
PICKENS WALKER WHITFIELD
TNC007-011-035-065-107-115-121-123-129-139-143-153-160740-
TN
. TENNESSEE COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BLEDSOE BRADLEY CUMBERLAND
Read more
WW 0058 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 58
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NW CSV TO
35 SSW LUK.
..WEINMAN..03/16/26
ATTN...WFO...IND...LMK...ILN...
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 58
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
KYC017-049-181-160740-
KY
. KENTUCKY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BOURBON CLARK NICHOLAS
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
Read more
WW 0057 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 57
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 W LCH TO
15 SW HEZ TO 55 NNE HEZ.
..THORNTON..03/16/26
ATTN...WFO...LCH...SHV...JAN...
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 57
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
LAC001-039-053-097-160540-
LA
. LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE
ACADIA EVANGELINE JEFFERSON DAVIS
ST. LANDRY
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
Read more
WW 0056 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 56
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NW MIE TO
40 NNW FWA TO 25 S AZO TO 5 ENE LAN.
..SPC..03/16/26
ATTN...WFO...LOT...IWX...GRR...
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 56
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
INC001-003-009-033-053-069-075-087-113-151-169-179-183-160440-
IN
. INDIANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ADAMS ALLEN BLACKFORD
DE KALB GRANT HUNTINGTON
JAY LAGRANGE NOBLE
STEUBEN WABASH WELLS
WHITLEY
MIC023-025-059-075-149-160440-
MI
. MICHIGAN COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BRANCH CALHOUN HILLSDALE
JACKSON ST. JOSEPH
OHC003-039-051-069-125-137-161-171-160440-
OH
. OHIO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
Read more
MD 0262 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR FAR WESTERN NC/SC...NORTHERN/WESTERN GA...SOUTHEAST AL...AND WESTERN FL PANHANDLE
Mesoscale Discussion 0262
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0237 AM CDT Mon Mar 16 2026
Areas affected...Far western NC/SC...northern/western GA...southeast
AL...and western FL Panhandle
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible
Valid 160737Z - 160930Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent
SUMMARY...Monitoring environmental and convective trends for a
possible downstream watch. The primary concern would be damaging
wind gusts.
DISCUSSION...The latest mosaic radar data depicts a
northeast/southwest-oriented QLCS advancing eastward across eastern
TN, far northwest GA, and northern/central AL -- with additional
isolated thunderstorms attempting to intensify ahead of the line in
AL. This activity continues to pose a risk of damaging gusts and a
couple tornadoes. Downstream, the pre-convective environment is
characterized by weak to moderate surface-based buoyancy (higher
with southward extent) and around 50 kt of line-parallel 0-6 km
shear (per regional VWP). This, along with a 40-50 kt low-level jet,
should continue to support the maintenance of the QLCS with eastward
extent. Despite some uncertainty in the severe risk with eastward
and northward extent, the potential for damaging gusts and perhaps
an embedded tornado or two may continue, and a new downstream watch
may be needed.
..Weinman/Hart.. 03/16/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...GSP...MRX...FFC...TAE...BMX...MOB...
LAT...LON 30678713 32798629 34798451 35138393 35098325 34828279
34448267 33918281 33018340 31068497 30458564 30258644
30328696 30678713
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-130 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN
Read more
SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1226 AM CDT Mon Mar 16 2026
Valid 161200Z - 171200Z
...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON
ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL MARYLAND...MUCH OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN
VIRGINIA...CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA AND ADJACENT PORTIONS OF SOUTH
CAROLINA...
...SUMMARY...
Fast moving thunderstorms may become widespread and accompanied by
the risk for damaging wind gusts and a few tornadoes across the Mid
Atlantic today. There is potential that a couple of storms could
become capable of producing strong and long track tornadoes.
...Discussion...
Models indicate that large-scale mid-level ridging will maintain
amplitude across the Pacific coast through the Canadian Prairies and
U.S. Rockies into early Tuesday and beyond. At the same time, it
appears that downstream ridging will undergo further amplification
just east of the Atlantic Seaboard, with only very slow eastward
progression of large-scale troughing in between, across the
Mississippi Valley into the Atlantic Seaboard.
It does appear that one significant short wave perturbation will
gradually pivot through the base of the troughing, toward the
Cumberland Plateau during the day today, before rapidly accelerating
northward near the Appalachians toward southwestern Quebec this
evening through the overnight hours. Models suggest that this will
eventually provide support for a rapidly deepening secondary surface
cyclone across Quebec, downstream of an occluding and weakening
cyclone across the lower Great Lakes vicinity.
Surface troughing ahead of the trailing cold front is also forecast
to undergo notable deepening to the east of the Allegheny Front and
Blue Ridge today, and it appears that a rather sharp surface
pressure fall/rise couplet will develop and overspread the northern
Mid Atlantic coast late this afternoon and evening with the passage
of the trough and trailing cold front. The cold front may clear all
the Atlantic Seaboard, but perhaps portions of southern Florida and
the Keys, by 12Z Tuesday.
...Atlantic Seaboard...
Low-level moisture return is underway across the southern into
middle Atlantic Seaboard. By early this afternoon, it appears that
60+ F surface dew points will advect as far north as the higher
terrain of central through northeastern Pennsylvania, with dew
points perhaps as high as the lower/mid 60s F across eastern North
Carolina and Virginia. In advance of a pre-frontal squall line,
which may be ongoing and beginning to spread to the lee of the
southern Appalachians through the eastern Gulf Coast states at the
outset of the period, it appears that destabilization and
large-scale ascent may support scattered new thunderstorm
development fairly early in the day. The extent to which this may
impact further destabilization through late afternoon remains
unclear.
Destabilization may also be impacted by relatively warm air/weak
lapse rates in mid/upper-levels, as models suggest that cold air
aloft will tend to lag to the west of the surface cold front. Even
so, forecast soundings suggest that, with breaks in the overcast, at
least weak boundary-layer CAPE on the order of 500-1000 J/kg is
possible in the warm sector across the Mid Atlantic.
In the presence of very strong southwesterly deep-layer mean flow on
the order of 50-60+ kt and strong to extreme low-level shear,
including at least modest clockwise curvature, the environment
appears potentially conducive to the evolution fast moving
supercells with potential to produce strong tornadoes. Barring much
interference from other storms, which remains uncertain at this
time, at least a couple of these could become long track, given the
storm motions.
Otherwise, trailing this activity, the lee surface trough/cold front
might become a focus for a developing line of storms capable of
promoting the downward transfer of momentum with potential to
produce widespread damaging wind gusts.
Farther south, it appears that the initial squall line may be
maintained or re-intensify, with a continuing risk for strong to
severe wind gusts and potential for tornadoes into and across the
southern Atlantic coast.
..Kerr/Thornton.. 03/16/2026
Read more
SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1243 AM CDT Mon Mar 16 2026
Valid 171200Z - 181200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorm potential appears negligible on Tuesday.
...Synopsis...
On Tuesday, a large upper trough will rapidly eject across the
northeastern States, with a cold front over the western Atlantic and
trailing southwestward across far southern FL/Straits at 12Z
Tuesday. Dry air behind this front should continue to shunt moisture
off the FL Peninsula, although an elevated band of weak instability
may remain atop the cooler air mass. Overall, thunderstorm potential
will be extremely limited for southern Florida, but a few showers
and isolated lightning flashes cannot be ruled out.
Elsewhere around the CONUS, cool and/or stable conditions will
prevail, with high pressure at the surface.
..Jewell.. 03/16/2026
Read more
SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1248 AM CDT Mon Mar 16 2026
Valid 181200Z - 191200Z
...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are not forecast for Wednesday.
...Synopsis...
On Wednesday, an upper ridge will build over the Southwest, with a
large-scale trough across over the East. High pressure over the
Southeast will maintain stable conditions, with generally offshore
winds across the Gulf. Minimal instability may be present from the
Bahamas into the FL Straits near a stalled front, with convective
showers mainly offshore. Otherwise, lack of instability will
preclude thunderstorms chances across the CONUS.
..Jewell.. 03/16/2026
Read more
Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0146 AM CDT Mon Mar 16 2026
Valid 191200Z - 241200Z
...DISCUSSION...
A northwest flow regime will persist across the Plains through
Saturday/D6 as an upper high holds over the southwestern states. The
ridge is expected to break down late D6 through the remainder of the
period into Monday/D8, as a strong wave moves southeastward into the
Great Lakes, and a weaker wave potentially moves into the Great
Basin/Four Corners states on Sunday/D7. This overall pattern will
maintain relatively stable conditions over most of the CONUS, with
high pressure over the southeastern states including the Gulf of
America. Further, as the stronger wave potentially moves across the
Great Lakes and into the Northeast, a reinforcing cold front is
likely to plunge south over much of the central and eastern states
into the D7/D8 time frame. While limited moisture may precede this
cold front, overall potential for destabilization appears to be
minimal.
Read more
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0147 AM CDT Mon Mar 16 2026
Valid 161200Z - 171200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR MIDDLE AND LOWER TEXAS COAST...
...Synopsis...
Dry, post frontal northerly flow will overspread the southern Plains
this afternoon bringing a period of Elevated to Critical fire
weather concerns across eastern New Mexico/far west Texas and from
central Oklahoma to the middle and lower Texas Coast.
...New Mexico and far west Texas...
Dry southeasterly return flow around 15-20 mph will overlap relative
humidity reductions to 15-20 percent across portions of eastern New
Mexico into far western Texas this afternoon. Fuels within this
region remain critically dry and multiple days of windy/dry
conditions and will support maintaining an Elevated area.
...South Central Oklahoma to the Lower Texas Coast...
As the cold front shifts offshore, dry northerly flow will
overspread an area from south-central Oklahoma down to the
middle/lower Texas coast. The driest conditions are expected across
the lower Texas coast, where a Critical was maintained with this
outlook. Relative humidity around 10-15% will overlap north to
northeast winds 15-20 mph across this region. This in addition to
dry fuels will support increased fire spread potential. Confidence
has increase that Elevated conditions will extend across the middle
Texas coast and north into south-central Oklahoma, which was added
with this outlook as several new fires emerged across this region on
Sunday.
..Thornton.. 03/16/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0148 AM CDT Mon Mar 16 2026
Valid 171200Z - 181200Z
...Synopsis...
A period of Elevated fire weather concerns will return on D2/Tuesday
across the southern Plains. Westerly flow aloft will overspread the
northern/central Rockies, with lee troughing strengthening across
the northern/central High Plains. Strengthening southwest winds will
extend into the Southern Plains where a residual dry air mass will
promote an increasing fire weather threat for southeastern NM, west
TX and western OK. Afternoon relative humidity reductions to 15-20%
will overlap sustained south southwesterly winds 10-15 mph. A
corridor of near Critical to Critical conditions may be possible
within this broader Elevated. For now, confidence in coverage of
critical winds is too low to include an area at this time, given low
combined probabilities from ensemble guidance from the HREF.
..Thornton.. 03/16/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
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