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  Sunday May 17, 2026

RSS Mesoscale Discussions from Storm Prediction Center

SPC Tornado Watch 218

WW 218 TORNADO IA KS MO 180105Z - 180800Z
      
WW 0218 Image

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Tornado Watch Number 218
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
805 PM CDT Sun May 17 2026

The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

* Tornado Watch for portions of 
  Central and Southern Iowa
  Far Northeast Kansas
  Northwest Missouri

* Effective this Sunday night and Monday morning from 805 PM
  until 300 AM CDT.

* Primary threats include...
  A couple tornadoes possible
  Scattered damaging winds and isolated significant gusts to 80
    mph likely
  Isolated large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible

SUMMARY...A severe band of thunderstorms will move into the Watch
from the west this evening posing a risk for a couple of tornadoes
and scattered severe gusts (60-80 mph).  A couple of embedded
supercells are also possible over southwestern parts of the Watch
area, where a risk for a tornado and large hail also exists.  The
risk will transition to mostly a wind-damage risk into the overnight
hours as storms move into eastern parts of the Watch, but a
lingering line-embedded tornado risk may continue.

The tornado watch area is approximately along and 70 statute miles
east and west of a line from 25 miles east northeast of Fort Dodge
IA to 55 miles south southwest of Lamoni IA. For a complete
depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update
(WOUS64 KWNS WOU8).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for
tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch
area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for
threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements
and possible warnings.

&&

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 213...WW 214...WW
215...WW 216...WW 217...

AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail
surface and aloft to 1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind
gusts to 70 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 450. Mean
storm motion vector 24040.

...Smith

Read more

SPC Tornado Watch 217

WW 217 TORNADO KS 180040Z - 180400Z
      
WW 0217 Image

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Tornado Watch Number 217
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
740 PM CDT Sun May 17 2026

The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

* Tornado Watch for portions of 
  Southwest Kansas

* Effective this Sunday evening from 740 PM until 1100 PM CDT.

* Primary threats include...
  A couple tornadoes possible
  Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2.5
    inches in diameter possible
  Isolated damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible

SUMMARY...Intensifying thunderstorms will likely pose a risk for
large to very large hail this evening as storms develop near a cold
front and retreating dryline.  A couple of tornadoes are possible,
especially if a supercell can become established as low-level wind
shear strengthens this evening.

The tornado watch area is approximately along and 45 statute miles
east and west of a line from 30 miles northeast of Russell KS to 35
miles southeast of Dodge City KS. For a complete depiction of the
watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU7).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for
tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch
area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for
threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements
and possible warnings.

&&

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 213...WW 214...WW
215...WW 216...

AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail
surface and aloft to 2.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind
gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean
storm motion vector 23025.

...Smith

Read more

SPC Tornado Watch 216

WW 216 TORNADO IA MN 172310Z - 180600Z
      
WW 0216 Image

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Tornado Watch Number 216
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
610 PM CDT Sun May 17 2026

The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

* Tornado Watch for portions of 
  Northern Iowa
  Southern Minnesota

* Effective this Sunday night and Monday morning from 610 PM
  until 100 AM CDT.

* Primary threats include...
  A few tornadoes and a couple intense tornadoes possible
  Widespread damaging winds and isolated significant gusts to 75
    mph likely
  Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2
    inches in diameter possible

SUMMARY...Scattered severe thunderstorms will move into the Watch
area from the west this evening.  The stronger thunderstorms will
include supercells and intense thunderstorm clusters, which will
yield a risk for tornadoes (perhaps a strong tornado), large hail,
and scattered severe gusts.  An organized band of severe
thunderstorms is eventually forecast to develop and move east across
the Watch later this evening.  Severe gusts and a QLCS tornado are
possible with this activity.

The tornado watch area is approximately along and 70 statute miles
east and west of a line from 20 miles east northeast of Mankato MN
to 40 miles south southwest of Mason City IA. For a complete
depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update
(WOUS64 KWNS WOU6).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for
tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch
area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for
threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements
and possible warnings.

&&

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 213...WW 214...WW 215...

AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail
surface and aloft to 2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind
gusts to 65 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean
storm motion vector 26030.

...Smith

Read more

SPC Tornado Watch 214

WW 214 TORNADO IA KS NE 172010Z - 180400Z
      
WW 0214 Image

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Tornado Watch Number 214
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
310 PM CDT Sun May 17 2026

The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

* Tornado Watch for portions of 
  Far Southwest Iowa
  North-Central and Northeast Kansas
  Southeast Nebraska

* Effective this Sunday afternoon and evening from 310 PM until
  1100 PM CDT.

* Primary threats include...
  A few tornadoes likely with a couple intense tornadoes possible
  Scattered damaging winds likely with isolated significant gusts
    to 75 mph possible
  Scattered large hail likely with isolated very large hail events
    to 3 inches in diameter possible

SUMMARY...The airmass ahead of the approaching cold front from
southeast Nebraska into north-central/northeast Kansas continues to
destabilize amid strong heating and low-level moisture advection.
Discrete thunderstorm development is possible in the warm sector
ahead of this cold front, with the environmental conditions
supportive of supercells capable of all hazards, including very
large hail to 3" in diameter and strong tornadoes. Thunderstorm
development is possible along the front as well, with large hail and
damaging gusts as the primary hazards with these storms.

The tornado watch area is approximately along and 95 statute miles
east and west of a line from 10 miles north northeast of Columbus NE
to 25 miles south of Concordia KS. For a complete depiction of the
watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU4).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for
tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch
area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for
threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements
and possible warnings.

&&

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 213...

AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail
surface and aloft to 3 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind
gusts to 65 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 550. Mean
storm motion vector 24035.

...Mosier

Read more

SPC Tornado Watch 213

WW 213 TORNADO IA MN NE SD 171840Z - 180300Z
      
WW 0213 Image

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Tornado Watch Number 213
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
140 PM CDT Sun May 17 2026

The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

* Tornado Watch for portions of 
  Northwest Iowa
  Far Southwest Minnesota
  Northeast Nebraska
  Southeast South Dakota

* Effective this Sunday afternoon and evening from 140 PM until
  1000 PM CDT.

* Primary threats include...
  A few tornadoes likely with a couple intense tornadoes possible
  Scattered damaging winds likely with isolated significant gusts
    to 85 mph possible
  Scattered large hail likely with isolated very large hail events
    to 3 inches in diameter possible

SUMMARY...Thunderstorm coverage and intensity is expected to
increase this afternoon along and ahead of a cold front moving into
the Mid Missouri Valley. Strong buoyancy and shear will favor
supercells with any discrete development. These intense supercells
would be capable of all hazards, including very large hail (up to
3"+ in diameter) and strong tornadoes. More linear development is
expected along the front, with strong gusts and line-embedded
possible, particularly across eastern portions of the watch (i.e.
far northeast Nebraska, far southeast South Dakota, northwest Iowa
and southwest Minnesota).

The tornado watch area is approximately along and 70 statute miles
north and south of a line from 40 miles west northwest of Oneill NE
to 35 miles north of Storm Lake IA. For a complete depiction of the
watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU3).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for
tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch
area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for
threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements
and possible warnings.

&&

AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail
surface and aloft to 3 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind
gusts to 75 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean
storm motion vector 24035.

...Mosier

Read more

SPC Tornado Watch 218 Status Reports

WW 0218 Status Updates
      
WW 0218 Status Image

STATUS REPORT ON WW 218

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.

..JEWELL..05/18/26

ATTN...WFO...DMX...EAX...


STATUS REPORT FOR WT 218 

SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS 

IAC001-003-009-013-015-025-027-029-039-047-049-053-073-075-077-
079-083-099-117-121-123-125-127-135-153-157-159-161-169-171-173-
175-181-185-187-180340-

IA 
.    IOWA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

ADAIR                ADAMS               AUDUBON             
BLACK HAWK           BOONE               CALHOUN             
CARROLL              CASS                CLARKE              
CRAWFORD             DALLAS              DECATUR             
GREENE               GRUNDY              GUTHRIE             
HAMILTON             HARDIN              JASPER              
LUCAS                MADISON             MAHASKA             
MARION               MARSHALL            MONROE              
POLK                 POWESHIEK           RINGGOLD            
SAC                  STORY               TAMA                
TAYLOR               UNION               WARREN              
WAYNE                WEBSTER             


KSC043-180340-

KS 
.    KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

Read more

SPC Tornado Watch 217 Status Reports

WW 0217 Status Updates
      
WW 0217 Status Image

STATUS FOR WATCH 0217 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET
Read more

SPC Tornado Watch 216 Status Reports

WW 0216 Status Updates
      
WW 0216 Status Image

STATUS REPORT ON WW 216

SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 ENE OTG
TO 15 N FRM TO 30 NNW MKT.

..JEWELL..05/18/26

ATTN...WFO...DMX...ARX...MPX...


STATUS REPORT FOR WT 216 

SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS 

IAC017-023-033-037-063-065-067-069-081-089-091-109-131-147-151-
189-191-195-197-180340-

IA 
.    IOWA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

BREMER               BUTLER              CERRO GORDO         
CHICKASAW            EMMET               FAYETTE             
FLOYD                FRANKLIN            HANCOCK             
HOWARD               HUMBOLDT            KOSSUTH             
MITCHELL             PALO ALTO           POCAHONTAS          
WINNEBAGO            WINNESHIEK          WORTH               
WRIGHT               


MNC013-039-043-045-047-091-099-103-109-147-161-180340-

MN 
.    MINNESOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

BLUE EARTH           DODGE               FARIBAULT           
FILLMORE             FREEBORN            MARTIN              
MOWER                NICOLLET            OLMSTED             
STEELE               WASECA              

Read more

SPC Severe Thunderstorm Watch 215 Status Reports

WW 0215 Status Updates
      
WW 0215 Status Image

STATUS REPORT ON WW 215

SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 SSE GLD
TO 25 SSE GLD TO 20 NNE GLD TO 30 WNW HLC.

..JEWELL..05/18/26

ATTN...WFO...GLD...


STATUS REPORT FOR WS 215 

SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS 

KSC109-193-180140-

KS 
.    KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

LOGAN                THOMAS              


THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY.  PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.

Read more

SPC Tornado Watch 214 Status Reports

WW 0214 Status Updates
      
WW 0214 Status Image

STATUS REPORT ON WW 214

SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 WNW RSL
TO 25 WSW CNK TO 20 NNE CNK TO 5 W BIE TO 25 SE LNK TO 15 WNW OMA
TO 15 N OMA TO 20 NE TQE.

..JEWELL..05/18/26

ATTN...WFO...OAX...TOP...GID...ICT...


STATUS REPORT FOR WT 214 

SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS 

IAC071-085-129-137-145-155-165-180340-

IA 
.    IOWA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

FREMONT              HARRISON            MILLS               
MONTGOMERY           PAGE                POTTAWATTAMIE       
SHELBY               


KSC009-013-027-029-041-053-061-105-117-123-131-143-149-159-161-
167-169-201-180340-

KS 
.    KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

BARTON               BROWN               CLAY                
CLOUD                DICKINSON           ELLSWORTH           
GEARY                LINCOLN             MARSHALL            
MITCHELL             NEMAHA              OTTAWA              
POTTAWATOMIE         RICE                RILEY               
RUSSELL              SALINE              WASHINGTON          


Read more

SPC Tornado Watch 213 Status Reports

WW 0213 Status Updates
      
WW 0213 Status Image

STATUS REPORT ON WW 213

SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 WSW TQE
TO 15 SSW SUX TO 30 N SUX TO 40 SSW OTG TO 15 SSE OTG TO 25 ENE
OTG TO 15 E RWF.

..JEWELL..05/18/26

ATTN...WFO...FSD...OAX...LBF...


STATUS REPORT FOR WT 213 

SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS 

IAC021-035-041-059-093-133-141-143-149-167-193-180240-

IA 
.    IOWA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

BUENA VISTA          CHEROKEE            CLAY                
DICKINSON            IDA                 MONONA              
O'BRIEN              OSCEOLA             PLYMOUTH            
SIOUX                WOODBURY            


MNC033-063-180240-

MN 
.    MINNESOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

COTTONWOOD           JACKSON             


NEC021-173-180240-

NE 
.    NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

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No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Mon May 18 02:00:06 UTC 2026.

SPC May 18, 2026 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
      
Day 1 Outlook Image
Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0807 PM CDT Sun May 17 2026

Valid 180100Z - 181200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS/MIDDLE MISSOURI VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms will continue tonight especially across Kansas
into far eastern Nebraska and Iowa, northwest Missouri and southern
Minnesota. This includes an increasing evening-time potential for
damaging winds aside from continued tornado and large hail risks
regionally.

...Central/southern Plains to Upper Midwest...
General regional trends will be for ongoing storms to continue to
grow upscale with increasing damaging wind potential this evening.
However, tornado potential (including a few strong) will continue
with embedded/semi-discrete supercells this evening, including near
the southern Minnesota warm frontal vicinity, and farther
south-southwest across far eastern Nebraska/western Iowa and
northeast Kansas and northwest Missouri, and perhaps with southern
peripheral development near the dryline across southern Kansas.
Scenario is supported by a moist/unstable air mass, along with
dramatically strengthening south-southwesterly winds in the lowest
2-3 km AGL, a trend already noted in regional WSR-88D VWP data as
supplemental to 00z observed soundings from Omaha/Topeka/Norman and
Springfield, Missouri.

..Guyer.. 05/18/2026

Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
          
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook Image
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0439 PM CDT Sun May 17 2026

Valid 191200Z - 251200Z

A progressive mid-level synoptic pattern is expected to persist
across the central CONUS through mid-week. The primary mid-level
trough driving current fire weather concerns (on Day 1/Sunday and
Day 2/Monday) will eject northeastward into the Plains, driving a
cold front with precipitation through the central US. Behind the
front will overspread a combination of below normal temperatures and
fairly widespread precipitation across much of the central and
eastern portions of the CONUS as the synoptic flow begins to
stabilize through the end of the work week. This will briefly dampen
the fire weather threat across much of the country on Tuesday and
likely continuing through next weekend. This could support
additional green up in some locations, particularly across the
northern CONUS, that have thus far been struggling to grow
fire-slowing vegetation. However, much longer duration precipitation
and cool conditions would be needed to appreciably improve heavy
dead fuel moisture and resultant ERCs.

...Southwest...
On Day 3/Tuesday and Day 4/Wednesday, lingering moderately strong
mid-level flow overhead as the trough begins to lift northeast will
contribute to additional chances, albeit less certain, for critical
wind/RH over portions of the Southwest. While the footprint may be
slightly different from one day to the other, daytime southwest
winds sustained at 10-20 mph will combine with minimum RHs of
10-20%. Thus, 40% probabilities of critical conditions remain in the
forecast over portions of AZ and NM.

..Stearns.. 05/17/2026

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

Read more


 
 
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