RSS Mesoscale Discussions from Storm Prediction Center
No watches are valid as of Sat Dec 27 05:49:02 UTC 2025.
No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Sat Dec 27 05:49:02 UTC 2025.
SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1124 PM CST Fri Dec 26 2025
Valid 271200Z - 281200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Little thunderstorm activity is forecast across the contiguous U.S.
today. A few thunderstorms may occur from eastern Kansas into
northern Missouri toward Sunday morning.
...Synopsis and Discussion...
Most of the CONUS will remain free of thunderstorms for much of the
day as a western trough progresses into the Plains late tonight into
Sunday. Ahead of this trough, upper ridging will occur over the
MS/OH Valleys with low-level warming and moisture advection. Low 60s
F dewpoints will stream north out of the southern Plains and lower
MS Valley toward the lower MO/Mid MS Valley late. This air mass will
remain capped for most of the period.
After about 06Z tonight, midlevel cooling will be more prominent
into KS/NE/IA, with a zone of elevated instability becoming
uncapped. While effective shear will be strong, instability should
only average at or below 500 J/kg. CAMs suggest storms may develop
after 08Z over northeast KS and move into northern MO through 12Z
Sunday. It appears that any hail risk will be non-severe/small.
..Jewell/Karstens.. 12/27/2025
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SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1126 PM CST Fri Dec 26 2025
Valid 271200Z - 281200Z
...Synopsis...
An upper-level ridge over the central CONUS will gradually shift
east throughout the day, while an upper-level trough enters the
Northern Rockies and impinges on western periphery of the ridge.
This process will promote a tightening of the height gradient aloft
and enhancement of the flow, from the southern High Plains into the
central Great Plains. At the surface, a combination of lee
cyclogenesis and diurnally driven mixing west of a developing dry
line should allow for a few hours of Elevated fire-weather
conditions to develop. Sustained winds of 15-20 mph and RH values
into the low to mid 20s will be possible across portions of the
TX/OK Panhandles and vicinity where prolonged arid conditions have
led to dry/receptive fuels.
..Karstens.. 12/27/2025
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
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SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1128 PM CST Fri Dec 26 2025
Valid 281200Z - 291200Z
...Synopsis...
An upper-level trough over the central/northern High Plains will
shift east into the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley region throughout
the day. At the surface, an area of low pressure will track from the
central Great Plains to the Great Lakes region. In its wake, a cold
front will sweep across much of the central CONUS, replacing near
record warmth with more seasonal temperatures.
Model guidance suggests there could be a window of up to a few hours
supporting Elevated fire-weather conditions associated with the
pre/post cold front passage, mainly across portions of the southern
High Plains. Pre-frontal residual dry air and diurnally driven winds
should be present ahead of the front by early afternoon. Then,
temperatures should remain above the minimum thresholds behind the
front for another 2-3 hours amid gusty northwest winds despite
rising RH values. Therefore, Elevated highlights have been
introduced for a small portion of West Texas and far southeast New
Mexico, confined to areas where fuels appear most receptive. The
frontal passage may at least temporarily exacerbate any ongoing
fires across the region as well.
..Karstens.. 12/27/2025
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
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