RSS Mesoscale Discussions from Storm Prediction Center
No watches are valid as of Mon Jun 1 13:05:02 UTC 2026.
MD 0933 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PARTS OF SOUTHEASTERN MISSOURI....SOUTHERN ILLINOIS AND ADJACENT SOUTHWESTERN INDIANA...WESTERN KENTUCKY AND ADJACENT NORTHWESTERN TENNESSEE
Mesoscale Discussion 0933
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0601 AM CDT Mon Jun 01 2026
Areas affected...parts of southeastern Missouri....southern Illinois
and adjacent southwestern Indiana...western Kentucky and adjacent
northwestern Tennessee
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 011101Z - 011330Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent
SUMMARY...Thunderstorm development probably will be maintained
southeastward across areas near and northeast of the
Mississippi/Ohio River confluence through 8-10 AM CDT, but with more
limited potential for severe wind and hail. While a new watch is
not currently anticipated in the near term, trends will continue to
be monitored.
DISCUSSION...Vigorous thunderstorm development persists with a bit
further upscale growth. It has not yet become particularly
organized, but a meso beta scale convective vortex may be developing
near/west-northwest of St. Louis. Coupled with continuing broad
lower/mid-tropospheric warm advection, this may maintain
southeastward development of convection across the lower Ohio
Valley, near and northeast of its confluence with the Mississippi
River, through 14-15Z. As this occurs, it does appear that moist
inflow on its western flank will become at least a bit more stable.
Furthermore, downstream of convection, the boundary layer is, at
least initially, a bit cooler/drier and more stable across
southeastern Missouri into the lower Ohio Valley, which seems likely
to limit the strength of associated surface gusts in descending
convective outflow.
..Kerr/Hart.. 06/01/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...OHX...PAH...MEG...LSX...
LAT...LON 38279027 38878986 38278813 37158697 36168872 36818983
37869136 38279027
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
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SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0711 AM CDT Mon Jun 01 2026
Valid 011300Z - 021200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...AND PARTS OF THE LOWER MS AND TN VALLEYS...
...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms with large hail and severe wind gusts are expected
Monday afternoon and evening across parts of the central Plains.
Scattered to numerous strong to severe wind gusts will also be
possible from the Ozarks southeastward into parts of the Southeast.
...Southeast States...
An occasionally severe MCS is ongoing this morning south of STL.
This activity may persist through much of the day, tracking
southeastward along the low-level moisture/instability gradient into
western KY/middle TN and eventually north GA. Moderate CAPE values,
30+ knots of mid-level steering flow, and mesoscale organization of
the MCS will pose a risk of strong/damaging winds along this
corridor.
Along the western flank of this MCS, a hot/humid air mass will
develop from AR into parts of TN/MS/AL with temperatures in the 90s
and dewpoints in the 70s. This will yield afternoon MLCAPE values
approaching 4000 J/kg. The consensus of model guidance suggests
scattered thunderstorm development by late afternoon, with outflows
congealing and spreading south/southwestward though a steep
lapse-rate environment. The result will be the potential for rather
widespread strong/severe storms capable of damaging wind gusts and
some hail. These storms may spread as far south as central MS/AL
during the evening before weakening.
...High Plains...
Easterly low-level winds are present this morning over much of
eastern CO/western KS. This will maintain an influx of moisture and
aid in the development of scattered thunderstorms over the foothills
of central CO by mid-afternoon. Sufficient deep-layer shear will
pose a risk of supercells capable of large/very large hail. As the
storms move/develop eastward into western KS this evening, supercell
structures may persist, but upscale growth into bowing clusters is
also expected. This will increase the risk of severe wind gusts as
well. The easterly low-level jet will also strengthen considerably
this evening across the region, enhancing low-level shear and
helicity, but in a region with high LCLs and dewpoints only around
50F.
Widely scattered severe storms are also expected to develop over
southeast WY, spreading eastward into the NE panhandle and southwest
SD with a risk of large hail and damaging wind gusts.
..Hart/Kerr.. 06/01/2026
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Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0355 AM CDT Mon Jun 01 2026
Valid 041200Z - 091200Z
...DISCUSSION...
...Thursday/Day 4 to Saturday/Day 6...
At mid-levels, a trough is forecast to move across the western U.S.
on Thursday, as a subtle lead shortwave trough moves into the
central and northern High Plains. At the surface, a broad area of
moderate instability is forecast to be in place across much of
Nebraska and South Dakota by afternoon. Scattered thunderstorms are
expected to develop ahead of the shortwave trough in the central and
northern High Plains, with these storms moving eastward across
western Nebraska and western South Dakota during the afternoon and
evening. The instability along with moderate to strong deep-layer
shear is expected to support severe thunderstorm development.
Supercells with large hail and severe wind gusts will be possible.
An isolated tornado threat may also develop.
The mid-level shortwave trough is forecast to move eastward across
the northern Plains on Friday and into the upper Mississippi Valley
on Saturday. During this time, a severe threat will be possible each
afternoon ahead of the shortwave trough in a moist and unstable
airmass. A more isolated severe threat may develop southward into
the central Plains and lower to mid Missouri Valley. For these two
days, spatial uncertainty is substantial concerning the exact
location of where the severe threat will be greatest.
...Sunday/Day 7 and Monday/Day 8...
From Sunday into Monday, a broad corridor of moist air is expected
to be in place over the Great Plains. Moderate to strong instability
appears likely to develop across parts of this airmass each
afternoon. Model forecasts suggest that deep-layer shear will remain
relatively weak over most of the Great Plains. Although an isolated
severe threat would be possible in some areas, uncertainty
concerning the mid-level pattern and the resultant deep-layer shear
is considerable at this time.
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