RSS Mesoscale Discussions from Storm Prediction Center
No watches are valid as of Wed Feb 4 22:03:02 UTC 2026.
No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Wed Feb 4 22:03:02 UTC 2026.
SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0149 PM CST Wed Feb 04 2026
Valid 042000Z - 051200Z
...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are not forecast through tonight.
...20Z Update...
No changes have been made to the outlook.
..Dean.. 02/04/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1029 AM CST Wed Feb 04 2026/
...Synopsis...
Current satellite imagery shows a shortwave trough extending from
the Lower MO Valley through OK and the TX Panhandle. This shortwave
is forecast to continue progressing southeastward, moving from the
western to southern periphery of the mean upper troughing that
covers much of the eastern CONUS. This progression will deepen the
eastern CONUS troughing, while a Rex Block persists across the
western CONUS. This evolution will yield an strongly amplified upper
pattern over the CONUS by early tomorrow morning.
Surface analysis places a low over the southern Appalachians in
northern GA, with a cold front extending southwestward from this
through the central Gulf Coast. Showers and embedded thunderstorms
precede this front from the FL Panhandle through central and eastern
SC, although most of the lightning is currently offshore. As the
aforementioned shortwave trough continues southeastward, this front
is forecast to surge southeastward as well. Inland buoyancy ahead of
the front will be limited by tempered heating and poor lapse rates,
which is expected to keep any thunderstorm potential offshore for
the remainder of the period.
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SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1243 PM CST Wed Feb 04 2026
Valid 061200Z - 071200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorm potential generally appears low on Friday and Friday
night.
...Southwest...
Multiple minor shortwave impulses should gradually evolve within a
broad, low-amplitude trough shifting inland from the West Coast.
Moisture for lightning-producing appears rather limited inland of
coastal southern CA, yielding insufficient buoyancy for thunderstorm
probabilities at or above 10 percent over the Mojave Desert and
Lower CO Valley. Still, most 12Z guidance indicates late-day
convective potential over the western Transverse Ranges. Scant
buoyancy amid 500-mb temperatures near -22 C, along with
orographically augmented weak ascent, might foster a couple
thunderstorms.
..Grams.. 02/04/2026
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SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0149 PM CST Wed Feb 04 2026
Valid 051200Z - 061200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
No changes to the Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook was needed. Localized
elevated fire weather conditions are expected across the northern
High Plains Thursday. A building upper-level ridge over the
Intermountain West will promote record warm temperatures across the
northern High Plains where lower elevation fuels continue to dry
amid expanding drought and lack of snow cover. Downslope enhanced
West to northwest winds of 10-15 mph (locally 20 mph in favorable
terrain) should align with relative humidity of 15-20% in localized
areas in the lee of the Rockies in central MT, but a broader fire
weather threat should be damped farther east where RH reductions
will be limited.
..Williams.. 02/04/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0122 AM CST Wed Feb 04 2026/
...Synopsis...
The upper-level ridge will shift more into the Plains on Thursday.
This will lead to warmer temperatures within the High Plains region.
Some modestly dry north/northwest winds will occur over the High
Plains and adjacent areas. However, winds of around 15 mph along
with marginally lowered RH in most locations does not suggest more
than a localized fire weather threat.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
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SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0357 PM CST Wed Feb 04 2026
Valid 061200Z - 121200Z
...Synopsis...
The highly amplified upper ridge over the West will begin to break
down through the weekend while troughing across the eastern U.S.
shifts eastward. Troughing becomes established across the West next
week, providing some opportunities for precipitation and cooler
temperatures across the region and High Plains. A cut-off low
meanders eastward through Mexico into the Southern Plains by Day
6/Monday while surface high pressure pushes farther into the
Atlantic from the Southeast. This will aid in deeper boundary layer
moisture return, which should mitigate fire weather concerns across
the Southeast and FL next week. Stronger westerly flow aloft
attributed to the breakdown of the upper-level ridge and more
pronounced lee surface cyclogenesis in the Plains could elevate the
fire weather threat across the central and southern Plains Days
6-7/Monday-Tuesday of next week.
...Days 3-4/Friday-Saturday - Southeast and Florida...
Fairly widespread rain showers along a cold front moving through the
Southeast and FL through Day 2/Thursday should temporarily mitigate
fire weather concerns across much of the region before dry,
post-frontal flow commences on Day 3/Friday. However, drier pockets
of fuels could remain across northern FL, where recent fire activity
has been observed within a drought stressed fuelscape. Uncertainty
in the near-term precipitation distribution across Florida precludes
introducing critical probabilities at this time.
...Day 4/Saturday - Southern and Central High Plains...
A mid-level short wave within broader northwesterly flow aloft is
expected to reach the Northern Plains by Day 4/Saturday. Subsequent
lee cyclogenesis across the northern/central Plains should bring
increasing westerly to northwesterly winds to much of the northern
High Plains. This region remains mostly snow free, with fuels
continuing to dry under unseasonably warm temperatures. Although
breezy winds are expected, RH reductions are uncertain, likely
remaining above 20% based on latest model guidance.
Farther south, lower RH amid warmer temperatures across southeastern
WY, northeastern CO and far western NE should align with breezy
winds and dry fuels to bring an enhanced fire weather threat to the
area Saturday. Marked southwest flow and downslope drying south of
the evolving surface low/trough could support an additional fire
weather threat across portions of northeastern NM and the TX
Panhandle where drier fuels are expected to emerge. 40% critical
probabilities were added to these areas.
..Williams.. 02/04/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
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