RSS Mesoscale Discussions from Storm Prediction Center
WW 24 SEVERE TSTM KY TN 071625Z - 072300Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 24
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1025 AM CST Sat Mar 7 2026
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of
Western and Central Kentucky
Middle Tennessee
* Effective this Saturday morning and afternoon from 1025 AM
until 500 PM CST.
* Primary threats include...
Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible
A tornado or two possible
SUMMARY...A line of storms will continue east-northeastward across
the region this afternoon with damaging winds as the most common
hazard.
The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 60
statute miles east and west of a line from 50 miles north of Bowling
Green KY to 85 miles south southwest of Nashville TN. For a complete
depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update
(WOUS64 KWNS WOU4).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.
&&
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 23...
AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
1 inch. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few
cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 450. Mean storm motion vector
24030.
...Guyer
Read more
WW 23 SEVERE TSTM AR MO MS TN 071355Z - 072000Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 23
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
755 AM CST Sat Mar 7 2026
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of
Central and Eastern Arkansas
The Missouri Bootheel
Northern Mississippi
Western Tennessee
* Effective this Saturday morning and afternoon from 755 AM until
200 PM CST.
* Primary threats include...
Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible
Isolated large hail events to 1 inch in diameter possible
A tornado or two possible
SUMMARY...Thunderstorm clusters will continue to move eastward this
morning and early afternoon while posing a threat for mainly
scattered damaging winds. Peak gusts may reach up to 60-70 mph, and
a brief tornado or two may also occur.
The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 85
statute miles east and west of a line from 30 miles north of
Dyersburg TN to 25 miles west southwest of Monticello AR. For a
complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline
update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU3).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.
&&
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 22...
AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
1 inch. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few
cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector
27035.
...Gleason
Read more
WW 0024 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 24
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SW CKV TO
10 SE CKV TO 45 N BWG TO 40 SW SDF.
..KERR..03/07/26
ATTN...WFO...LMK...PAH...OHX...
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 24
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
KYC003-009-031-061-085-087-093-099-123-141-169-171-179-213-219-
227-071940-
KY
. KENTUCKY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ALLEN BARREN BUTLER
EDMONSON GRAYSON GREEN
HARDIN HART LARUE
LOGAN METCALFE MONROE
NELSON SIMPSON TODD
WARREN
TNC003-021-037-043-055-081-083-085-099-101-111-117-119-125-135-
147-149-159-165-169-181-187-189-071940-
TN
. TENNESSEE COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BEDFORD CHEATHAM DAVIDSON
DICKSON GILES HICKMAN
HOUSTON HUMPHREYS LAWRENCE
LEWIS MACON MARSHALL
MAURY MONTGOMERY PERRY
Read more
WW 0023 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 23
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 ENE TXK
TO 5 NNE LLQ TO 35 SSW MEM TO 45 NE MKL TO 45 NE MKL TO 40 SE PAH.
..HALBERT..03/07/26
ATTN...WFO...LZK...JAN...MEG...
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 23
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ARC003-011-013-017-041-043-103-071840-
AR
. ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ASHLEY BRADLEY CALHOUN
CHICOT DESHA DREW
OUACHITA
MSC003-009-011-027-033-071-093-107-119-133-137-139-151-071840-
MS
. MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ALCORN BENTON BOLIVAR
COAHOMA DESOTO LAFAYETTE
MARSHALL PANOLA QUITMAN
SUNFLOWER TATE TIPPAH
WASHINGTON
TNC005-017-023-039-047-069-071-077-079-109-113-071840-
TN
Read more
MD 0167 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY FOR EASTERN OHIO...NORTHWESTERN WEST VIRGINIA...WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA...SOUTHWESTERN NEW YORK
Mesoscale Discussion 0167
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1157 AM CST Sat Mar 07 2026
Areas affected...eastern Ohio...northwestern West Virginia...western
Pennsylvania...southwestern New York
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely
Valid 071757Z - 072000Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent
SUMMARY...Intensifying thunderstorm development may become capable
of producing marginally severe hail, increasing risk for damaging
wind gusts and perhaps accompanied by potential for a couple of
tornadoes by 3-5 PM EST.
DISCUSSION...Boundary-layer layer moisture return across the upper
Ohio Valley into lower Great Lakes region is ongoing, but remains
somewhat modest with surface dew points increasing through the
mid/upper 50s. However warming and mixing with continuing
insolation is contributing to steepening low-level lapse rates and
thermodynamic profiles with weak to modest CAPE increasing in excess
of 500 J/kg, beneath southwesterly deep-layer mean ambient flow
increasing to near 50 kt.
Deepening convective development now appears underway along and
discretely ahead of a convectively generated pre-cold frontal
surface boundary now advancing across central into eastern Ohio. As
this continues into the Allegheny Plateau through 21-22Z, developing
thunderstorm activity appears likely to intensify and organize.
This may include a few evolving supercell structures within and
ahead of an evolving line, accompanied by a risk for severe hail and
damaging wind gusts.
With surface winds generally veered to a fairly prominent westerly
component, the degree to which low-level hodographs will become
supportive of tornadic potential remains unclear, particularly given
the still sizable boundary-layer temperature/dew point spreads.
However, as 850 mb winds strengthen to 50+ kt across eastern Ohio
into western Pennsylvania, various model derived output suggests
that profiles could become locally conducive to a supercell tornado
threat by late afternoon.
..Kerr/Guyer.. 03/07/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...BUF...CTP...PBZ...RLX...CLE...ILN...
LAT...LON 42537973 42127817 40797932 40018008 38738163 38358266
39088350 40548232 42537973
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN
Read more
MD 0166 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR PARTS OF SOUTHERN OHIO...MUCH OF KENTUCKY...WESTERN AND MIDDLE TENNESSEE...AND ADJACENT NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI/NORTHWESTERN ALABAMA
Mesoscale Discussion 0166
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0957 AM CST Sat Mar 07 2026
Areas affected...parts of southern Ohio...much of Kentucky...western
and middle Tennessee...and adjacent northern
Mississippi/northwestern Alabama
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible
Valid 071557Z - 071830Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent
SUMMARY...Gradually intensifying and organizing thunderstorm
activity may pose increasing potential to produce strong to severe
wind gusts while spreading eastward through 1-3 PM CST (2-4 PM EST).
One or more severe weather watches may be needed within the next few
hours.
DISCUSSION...A corridor of stronger 2 hourly surface pressure rises
(on the order of 3-5 mb) has been developing northeastward across
the Batesville and Walnut Ridge vicinity of northeastern Arkansas
into areas near/east of Poplar Bluff MO, in the wake of stronger
convection developing northeastward/eastward along a slower moving
congomerate outflow boundary. This appears to be accompanying a low
amplitude perturbation and associated lower/mid-tropospheric jet
streak forecast to overspread much of Kentucky and Tennessee through
18-21Z. The Rapid Refresh suggests this belt of flow may weaken
some, but maintain west-south winds in the 850-700 mb layer at
speeds of 30-50 kt.
Coupled with boundary-layer destabilization associated ongoing
insolation, and continuing low-level moisture advection (including
surface dew points increasing through the lower/mid 60s F) ahead of
the convection, the environment appears likely to support at least
gradually intensifying and organizing thunderstorm activity. As
this proceeds through early and mid afternoon, potential for
increasingly widespread strong to locally severe wind gusts seems
likely to increase.
..Kerr/Guyer.. 03/07/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...RLX...MRX...JKL...ILN...LMK...OHX...HUN...PAH...
MEG...
LAT...LON 37708632 39088432 38178232 37208338 34698803 34789016
36968811 37708632
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
Read more
SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1033 AM CST Sat Mar 07 2026
Valid 071630Z - 081200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF
TEXAS TO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY/TENNESSEE VALLEY AND UPPER
OHIO VALLEY...
...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms are likely today across parts of Ohio
into West Virginia and western Pennsylvania/New York, and from
portions of Texas into the lower Mississippi Valley and Mid-South.
Damaging winds should be the main threat for most areas, but large
hail may occur across parts of Texas, and a few tornadoes are
possible in the upper Ohio Valley.
...Ohio Valley to Western Pennsylvania/New York...
A loosely organized linear band of currently non-strong
thunderstorms, which is effectively augmenting the cold front,
continues generally eastward at midday toward Lake Erie/central Ohio
and across northern Kentucky. Ample insolation is occurring per
visible satellite ahead of this convection across eastern portions
of Kentucky/Ohio into West Virginia and western Pennsylvania, with
surface dewpoints generally climbing through the upper 50s F. This
scenario will quickly erode remaining convective inhibition, with
thunderstorms expected to increase and intensify through
mid-afternoon.
As storms develop/mature, strong cyclonically influenced flow aloft
(45+ kt effective shear) will support both supercells and
well-organized/fast-moving clusters in the presence of a 40-50 kt
southwesterly low-level jet, with notable 50-65 kt winds around 3km
AGL/700 mb. These storms will be capable of scattered
severe/damaging winds as they move quickly east-northeastward across
the region. The potential also exists for line-embedded and/or
supercell tornadoes given the degree of 0-2km AGL shear/SRH. This
convection is forecast to weaken this evening as it moves into the
higher terrain of the Appalachians and encounters a much less
unstable airmass.
...Texas to the Lower Mississippi Valley/Mid-South...
At late morning, extensive linear bands of convection are
principally located near the southeastward-advancing cold front from
the Mid-South/Memphis vicinity southwestward to the ArkLaTex and
central Texas, with some stronger/occasional hail-capable
post-frontal elevated convection noted across parts of the Edwards
Plateau and Low Rolling Plains. Damaging winds will remain the most
common hazard across the Mid-South/parts of Kentucky and ArkLaMiss
vicinity as convection moves/develops into a gradually destabilizing
air mass regionally.
Potential for supercells is more apparent across parts of Texas,
where steep mid-level lapse rates, greater MUCAPE, and modestly
enhanced mid/upper-level flow, and related deep-layer shear, will
support the potential for primarily large hail. This supercell hail
potential should be maximized across south-central Texas potentially
including parts of the Hill County/Brush Country toward the Rio
Grande.
..Guyer/Halbert.. 03/07/2026
Read more
SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1127 AM CST Sat Mar 07 2026
Valid 081200Z - 091200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE CAROLINAS INTO SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated, marginally severe thunderstorms are possible on Sunday
afternoon to early evening across parts of the Carolinas to
southeast Virginia.
...Carolinas into southeast Virginia...
A midlevel trough will move eastward across the Northeast, while a
related cold front moves slowly eastward across the Appalachians and
eventually to the East Coast late in the period. Ahead of the front,
isolated thunderstorms are expected within a broad pre-frontal
surface trough extending across the Carolinas into southeast VA
during the afternoon. While midlevel lapse rates will be modest,
diurnal heating/destabilization of a relatively moist air mass
(lower/middle 60s dewpoints) will still contribute to weak
surface-based buoyancy ahead of these storms. This, combined with
around 30 kt of effective shear, may promote a couple loosely
organized storms during the afternoon and early evening before
quickly spreading offshore. The stronger storms will pose a risk of
locally damaging gusts and marginally severe hail.
..Weinman.. 03/07/2026
Read more
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0930 AM CST Sat Mar 07 2026
Valid 071700Z - 081200Z
The previous forecast (see below) remains on track.
..Squitieri.. 03/07/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0110 AM CST Sat Mar 07 2026/
...Synopsis...
Early-morning surface observations show a strong cold front pushing
east through the Midwest and southeast across the Plains. This
feature is expected to continue pushing east/southeast through today
as cool temperatures and high pressure follow in its wake. A
combination of cool temperatures, recent rainfall, and widespread
rain chances today from the OH Valley into the lower MS Valley will
limit fire weather concerns for most locations east of the Rockies,
though localized fire weather potential is noted across parts of the
northern High Plains.
...Northern High Plains...
A clipper low traversing the Canadian Prairies will support
strengthening west/northwest gradient winds through the late
afternoon. Wind speeds upwards of 15-25 mph are expected and may
coincide with RH reductions into the 15-25% range within the
downslope flow regime across central to eastern WY. Fire weather
concerns will most likely be focused across far east-central WY into
adjacent portions of NE and SD where ERC values are near seasonal
highs and limited precipitation has fallen over the past 72 hours
per MRMS estimates.
...Southern California Coast...
Early-morning water-vapor imagery depicts an upper low over the
lower CO River Valley. This feature will continue to settle
southward into northwest Mexico as northeasterly mid-level winds
strengthen over southern CA. A combination of strong mid to
upper-level offshore flow coupled with a moderate offshore pressure
gradient (LAX-DAG gradient forecast to be around -5 mb) will support
east/northeast winds of 15-25 mph (gusting to 35-45 mph at times)
today through early Sunday morning. While confidence in these winds
is fairly high due to strong agreement among deterministic and
ensemble solutions, latest fuels analyses suggest that fuels remain
unsupportive of fire spread.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
|
