RSS Mesoscale Discussions from Storm Prediction Center
No watches are valid as of Thu Feb 26 21:48:01 UTC 2026.
No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Thu Feb 26 21:48:01 UTC 2026.
SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0131 PM CST Thu Feb 26 2026
Valid 262000Z - 271200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE ARKLAMISS
EASTWARD INTO WEST-CENTRAL ALABAMA...
...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms capable of large hail will be
possible from the ArkLaMiss into north-central Alabama, through
early/mid-evening.
...20z Update - ArkLaMiss/Deep-South...
Based on latest surface observation trends, the Slight risk (level 2
of 5) has been expanded a small amount eastward across portions of
west-central AL. Temperatures have warmed into the low to mid 70s
amid low/mid 60s F dewpoints. Steep midlevel lapse rates atop the
warm/moist boundary layer are supporting a corridor of around 1000
J/kg MLCAPE into west-central AL. This may support stronger/better
organized updrafts and a risk for large hail.
The Marginal risk (level 1 of 5) has also been expanded north and
eastward across northern and central AL. Trends in CAMs guidance
(specifically FV3/RRFS members) suggest a couple of storms may
develop further north. Furthermore, RAP forecast soundings appear to
be representing the boundary layer well, and suggest any storm
moving across northern into east-central AL could produce isolated
hail.
For more details on short term severe potential, reference Mesoscale
Discussion 119.
..Leitman.. 02/26/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1022 AM CST Thu Feb 26 2026/
...Deep South including ArkLaMiss to north-central Alabama...
Visible-satellite imagery late this morning shows scattered to
overcast cloud cover from southern AR/northern LA eastward into
eastern AL. Surface temperatures are gradually warming through the
mid 60s into the lower 70s deg F in areas void of extensive clouds,
mainly from west-central AL westward.
A mid-level disturbance over the central High Plains is forecast to
quickly move southeastward into the ArkLaMiss by late tonight. As
the upper system approaches, a cold front draped from southeast OK
eastward along the MS-TN border is forecast to accelerate
southeastward this evening and through much of the central Gulf
Coast states through tonight.
Modest mid-level cold-air advection will continue through the
afternoon and steepen 700-500 mb lapse rates across MS/AL. The
advection of the mid-level lapse rate plume and additional heating
will combine to increase buoyancy (ranging from 1500+ J/kg SBCAPE
west, to less than 500 J/kg east). Guidance is consistent in
showing weak low-level flow, but strong mid/high-level winds will
yield 40+ kt effective shear, supporting the potential for severe
storms including some supercells as storms develop and intensify
through mid/late afternoon. Both the prospects for appreciable
destabilization and probable widely scattered coverage of an initial
supercell storm mode, lend confidence for upgrading severe hail
probabilities (Slight Risk). A gradual waning in storm intensity is
expected through the evening as instability lessens and a transition
to less organized storm modes occur.
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SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1125 AM CST Thu Feb 26 2026
Valid 271200Z - 281200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected over parts of the
Southeast and Florida Peninsula on Friday. Severe thunderstorms are
not currently forecast.
...Synopsis...
A diffuse cold front analyzed in mid-morning surface observations
across the southern Appalachians and mid-MS River Valley is expected
to push southeast over the next 24 hours in a tandem with an
upper-level shortwave trough. Thunderstorms will likely be ongoing
early Friday morning along the front from southern AL and the FL
Panhandle into southern GA, but some abatement through the
early-morning diurnal buoyancy minimum is anticipated.
Re-intensification of lingering convection and/or development of
additional thunderstorms is expected along the FL Peninsula through
the afternoon hours as modest heating yields SBCAPE values around
500 J/kg to perhaps 1000 J/kg across southern FL. Broad-scale ascent
associated with the passing upper wave will persist through the
overnight hours; however, low-level convergence will steadily
diminish along the stalling, frontolytic frontal zone, favoring
mainly isolated to periodically scattered thunderstorms. An
unfavorable displacement of the greater buoyancy across
central/southern FL with the stronger mid-level flow further north
will limit the potential for organized/severe convection.
..Moore.. 02/26/2026
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SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0126 PM CST Thu Feb 26 2026
Valid 281200Z - 011200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms will be possible across the Florida Peninsula and
across northern California and southern Oregon on Saturday.
Additional thunderstorms may be possible across the Southern Plains
Saturday evening into early Sunday morning.
...Synopsis...
A persistent northwest flow regime will continue across the CONUS
well into the weekend with continued upper ridging over the
Southwest/West Coast and the maintenance of a long-wave trough over
the East. Within this flow regime, several embedded disturbances
will support areas of convection, namely over the Florida Peninsula
and across northern California and adjacent portions of OR and NV.
Isolated thunderstorms are also possible across parts of the
southern Plains into the Ozark Plateau within a low-level warm
advection regime.
...FL Peninsula...
Isolated to scattered thunderstorms appear likely through the day
along the FL Peninsula as ascent associated with a de-amplifying
upper wave persists over a buoyant and weakly capped environment.
Although some hodograph elongation is noted in recent forecast
soundings, confidence in updraft intensity is limited due to modest
mid-level lapse rates and weak low-level convergence/forcing for
ascent. Any appreciable severe threat would most likely manifest
along the FL east coast where sea-breeze convergence may focus
thunderstorm development, but confidence in this potential is too
limited at this time for risk probabilities.
...Oklahoma into the Ozark Plateau...
Zonal flow across the central Rockies will promote steady lee
troughing along the High Plains through late Saturday night. In
response, warm/moist air advection is expected to increase through
the lowest few kilometers as a plume of low to mid-50s dewpoints
spreads north into OK within a southerly flow regime. Isentropic
ascent within a weak deformation zone at around 850 mb will likely
be the impetus for thunderstorm development within the destabilizing
air mass by Saturday evening. The quality of moisture
return/destabilization remains uncertain due to notable spread in
guidance, which lends low confidence in overall storm coverage and
intensity at this time. However, thunder probabilities were
maintained/introduced where agreement between long-range ensembles
and extended-range CAMs appears greatest.
...Northern CA into OR and NV...
A shortwave trough is forecast to crest the axis of the persistent
upper ridge in place along the CA coast. Cold mid-level temperatures
under the upper low coupled with an influx of Pacific moisture
through a deep layer should support convective elements within
broader precipitation bands. Forecast soundings suggest buoyancy
profiles will remain too limited to support intense convection,
which should preclude a severe threat.
..Moore.. 02/26/2026
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SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1206 PM CST Thu Feb 26 2026
Valid 271200Z - 281200Z
...19z Update...
No changes were made to the previous forecast. An overlap of
northwesterly 35-45 mph sustained surface winds and RH values of
10-20% will likely exist for a few hours on Friday afternoon for
southeastern WY, northeastern CO, and the western NE Panhandle. With
multiple days of strong, dry downslope winds preceding Day 2/Friday
atop a drought-ridden landscape, fuels are likely to be receptive to
fire. Elevated fire weather conditions are expected for central NM
into the lee of the Sandia Manzano Mountains as very low RH values
of 10-20% and sustained westerly winds of 15-20 mph coalesce atop a
region of potentially drier fine fuels. While broad forecast ERC
values within the risk area are between the 50th-70th percentiles,
recent fires in the landscape and antecedent days of dry/windy
conditions maintain fire weather concerns.
..Elizalde-Garcia/Thornton.. 02/26/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0150 AM CST Thu Feb 26 2026/
...Synopsis...
...Portions of eastern and southeastern Wyoming into northeastern
Colorado and the Nebraska Panhandle...
Elevated to locally critical fire weather conditions are expected
Friday as strong mid-level flow and a 40-kt northwesterly 700 mb jet
will support strong northwesterly downslope winds in the lee of the
Laramie Range. Guidance is in generally good agreement regarding
20-30 mph sustained surface winds with gusts up to 35-45 mph
(locally higher in terrain-favored areas) overlapping RH values of
15-20%. Some guidance indicates even lower RH values of 10-15%
across this area, but uncertainty regarding how low RH values will
drop precludes the addition of a Critical area at this time.
...Portions of central and east-central New Mexico...
Lower RH values of 10-15% are expected to be more common from
northeastern Colorado southward into eastern New Mexico. Winds are
expected to remain generally light across this region, with the
exception being across portions of central into east-central New
Mexico where a belt of modest northwesterly mid-level flow is
expected to support dry, downslope winds in the lee of the Sandia
Manzano Mountains. Elevated highlights have been added where
sustained northwesterly surface winds of 15-20 mph (locally higher)
are expected to overlap RH values of 10-20% Friday afternoon.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
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SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0342 PM CST Thu Feb 26 2026
Valid 281200Z - 061200Z
Mid-level flow will remain amplified over CONUS through Day
3/Saturday before the ridge over the Southwest slowly shifts east
Day 4/Sunday - Day 5/Monday. On Day 3/Saturday, continued downslope
flow in southeastern Wyoming will bring dry and breezy conditions
atop curing fuels. Throughout the day, 700 mb winds will decrease
and northwesterly flow aloft will gradually move eastward,
minimizing upper-level support for stronger sustained winds atop the
lowest RH. Therefore, 40% Critical probabilities have been withheld
for now. Dry fuels and a drought ridden landscape across the FL
Peninsula may heighten localized fire weather concerns as scattered
thunderstorms pass through the region on Day 2/Friday into Day
3/Saturday. Areas that do not see sufficient rainfall may have
holdovers from potential lightning ignitions.
Zonal flow aloft evolves in the Southwest on Day 4/Sunday as surface
troughing pushes cooler air into the Central US. Depending on the
extent of the arctic airmass, moisture advection via southerly flow
along the TX Gulf Coast into the southern High Plains may be
limited. Increasing heights and northwesterly flow aloft will
promote warm, dry air across the Southwest. Locally elevated fire
weather conditions may arise in areas with stronger terrain-driven
wind.
Day 5/Monday - Day 8/Thursday, a transition to southwesterly flow
aloft in the Southwest and southern High Plains will evolve as a
closed low develops off the West Coast and treks across the Great
Basin. Surface troughing and enhanced southerly surface flow may
bring modest Gulf moisture to the Plains region. Despite model and
ensemble uncertainties in the overlap of strong winds and low RH in
the Southwest (and to some extent, parts of the southern High
Plains), elevated fire weather conditions may emerge as a result of
the overall synoptic pattern.
..Elizalde-Garcia/Thornton.. 02/26/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
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