RSS Mesoscale Discussions from Storm Prediction Center
No watches are valid as of Tue Jun 2 09:02:02 UTC 2026.
MD 0955 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PARTS OF NORTHEASTERN AND EAST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA
Mesoscale Discussion 0955
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0400 AM CDT Tue Jun 02 2026
Areas affected...parts of northeastern and east central Oklahoma
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 020900Z - 021100Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent
SUMMARY...A lingering cluster of strong thunderstorms may persist
into 7-8 AM CDT time frame, accompanied by occasional strong gusts
while overspreading the I-44 and i-40 corridors of eastern Oklahoma.
DISCUSSION...Though trailing the leading edge of the
east-southeastward advancing convective outflow, vigorous convective
development is being maintained, and still contributing to 2-4 mb
2-hourly surface pressure rises within the deeper surface cold pool.
This has becoming increasingly displaced to the southeast of the
mesoscale convective vortex, now east of Medicine Lodge KS, aided by
veering of stronger rear inflow to a northwesterly component.
It is possible that forcing associated with the cold pool may
maintain sufficient strength to support ongoing convection at
current intensities into the 12-13Z time, aided by continuing inflow
of air emanating from a seasonably moist boundary-layer
(characterized by large potential instability) across the Interstate
44 into 40 corridors of eastern Oklahoma.
..Kerr.. 06/02/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...TSA...OUN...
LAT...LON 36589583 36019442 35579466 35199592 35509697 35759704
36109627 36589583
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
Read more
SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0100 AM CDT Tue Jun 02 2026
Valid 021200Z - 031200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PART OF THE
NORTHERN PLAINS...
...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms with large hail, severe wind gusts and potentially a
couple of tornadoes are expected on Tuesday afternoon and evening in
parts of the northern Plains. Strong wind gusts and marginal hail
will also be possible in parts of the southern and central High
Plains. A few severe wind gusts may also occur from southern Georgia
into northern and eastern Florida.
...Synopsis...
The primary upper low will make little eastward progress today.
Moderate to strong mid-level winds will persist across parts of the
western Dakotas. Mid-level winds will drop off fairly rapidly from
Colorado southward. Convective outflows will be present within the
central and southern Plains. To the east, a strong, amplified trough
will move through the Tennessee Valley into the Southeast.
...Eastern Wyoming into the Dakotas...
Moderate to strong mid-level winds will persist across the region
through the day. A surface low will develop near the WY/SD/ND border
region by late afternoon. Storms will develop either within parts of
the higher terrain in Wyoming or along a dryline/weak surface trough
feature. Additional storms are possible along a southwest-northeast
cold front in western/central North Dakota. Upper 50s to perhaps low
60s F dewpoints are expected. Effective shear values of 45-50 kts
will promote supercell structures, particularly in western South
Dakota/southwest North Dakota near the surface low. Large to
very-large hail and severe winds will be possible. A couple of
tornadoes are also possible with discrete storms near the surface
low. Should storms maintain a discrete mode into early evening, a
modest increase in the low-level jet will increase the tornado
potential.
...Central/southern High Plains...
Moisture return will occur in the wake of overnight convection. Low
to mid 50s F dewpoints into the Foothills/southern Rockies appears
plausible. Along the Front Range, mid-level winds will be weaker
than yesterday. The degree of surface heating will play a role in
storm coverage during the afternoon. At present, isolated storms
capable of marginal hail and isolated severe gusts are the most
likely scenario. Farther south, temperatures will be warmer and
dewpoints may be slightly greater as well. Despite the weaker shear,
scattered storms will develop in strong buoyancy and pose a risk of
severe wind gusts.
...Southeast Alabama/southern Georgia/Florida...
Rich surface moisture (upper 60s to low 70s F dewpoints) will reside
south of a weak surface boundary. Mid-level flow will be at least
moderately strong with the approach of the trough. Given the
influence of outflow from the previous days convection as well as a
northerly component to the winds through the day, the northern
extent of the severe risk is uncertain. It is more probable that
stronger convection forms along the Gulf breeze front within the
Florida Panhandle and the sea breeze on the eastern coast. Coverage
in Alabama and Georgia may be rather isolated. Damaging wind gusts
are the main hazard as well as small hail. Poor mid-level lapse
rates will limit greater hail potential even with supercellular
modes possible in eastern Florida.
..Wendt/Moore.. 06/02/2026
Read more
SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1247 AM CDT Tue Jun 02 2026
Valid 031200Z - 041200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...
...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms with large to very large hail and severe wind gusts
will be possible Wednesday afternoon into night in parts of the
northern Plains into upper Mississippi Valley. More sporadic
occurrences of large hail and severe wind gusts appear possible
across parts of the central High Plains and southwest Texas.
...Synopsis...
A mid/upper-level low initially over southern Saskatchewan Wednesday
morning is forecast to shift east into southern Manitoba through the
forecast period. At the same time, an attending belt of enhanced
mid/upper-level winds will overspread the northern Plains into upper
MS Valley, along with a corridor of modest height falls. Elsewhere,
a lower-latitude short-wave trough will drift north-northeast from
the southern into central High Plains.
At the surface, low pressure linked with the Canadian upper low will
move through the same areas, while a trailing cold front pushes
through the northern Plains into the upper MS Valley. A secondary
surface low is expected to form along the front in central SD
Wednesday afternoon with the trailing portion of the boundary
settling into the NE Panhandle and southeast WY.
...Northern Plains into the upper Mississippi Valley Wednesday
afternoon/night...
Showers and thunderstorms may be ongoing Wednesday morning across
portions of ND in association with a subtle short-wave trough moving
through the area. Model guidance is suggestive that a subset of the
early-day convection could linger through the morning into early
afternoon across portions of eastern ND into northwest MN, which
could ultimately limit the degree of air mass destabilization in
those areas. However to the south of the associated cloud
debris/convective outflow, stronger daytime heating in conjunction
with boundary layer dewpoints in the 60s and steep mid-level lapse
rates will support a moderately unstable air mass with MLCAPE of
1500-2500 J/kg.
Modest height falls aloft will combine with convergence along the
cold front and preceding convective outflow boundary to support
robust thunderstorm development by mid/late afternoon across
portions of south-central and southeast ND into central and
northeast SD. Forecast soundings indicate the presence of a
vertically veering wind profile with 35-40 kt of effective bulk
shear, which will support organized storm modes, including
supercells. Elongated hodographs resulting from the presence of
relatively strong flow above 8-9 km will favor a conditional threat
for two-inch or greater hail with any sustained supercells. In
addition, some tornado threat could materialize by late afternoon
into early evening across portions of southeast ND into northeast SD
from the vicinity of the expected outflow boundary to ahead of the
secondary surface low, where some enhancement of low-level shear is
forecast.
Increasing convergence along coalescing cold pools owing to a
strengthening low-level jet is expected to support upscale growth of
storms into an MCS Wednesday evening across portions of eastern SD
and western MN, with an associated risk for damaging wind gusts.
...Southern and Central High Plains Wednesday afternoon/evening...
The models indicate the potential for early-day storms across
portions of the southern High Plains owing to forcing for ascent
associated with the short-wave trough. Associated cloud cover is
expected to limit destabilization potential in those areas, with
comparably greater instability developing across the central Plains,
and across portions of southwest TX. The migration of the short-wave
trough into the central high Plains by afternoon into evening will
support clusters of diurnally enhanced thunderstorms in those areas,
with an attendant risk for sporadic large hail and damaging winds.
Weakening vertical shear with southward extent from the northern
into central Plains is expected to limit the potential for a more
organized severe-weather episode. Additional strong to severe storms
appear possible along the favored terrain of southwest TX, where
isolated occurrences of large hail and damaging winds may occur.
..Mead.. 06/02/2026
Read more
SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0227 AM CDT Tue Jun 02 2026
Valid 041200Z - 051200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS...MUCH OF SOUTH DAKOTA...AND NORTHERN
NEBRASKA...
...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms capable of large hail and damaging winds are
possible from parts of the northern High Plains into lower
elevations of the northern and central Plains Thursday afternoon
into night. More isolated occurrences of large hail and damaging
winds appear possible in parts of the upper Midwest and upper Great
Lakes.
...Synopsis...
A mid/upper-level low over southern Manitoba Thursday morning is
forecast to move into Ontario ahead of a weakening short-wave trough
translating from the northern Rockies into northern Plains. A
separate disturbance is expected to progress through the central
Plains. In the low levels, a surface low will track from southern
Manitoba into northwest Ontario while a trailing cold front advances
through the upper MS Valley into the upper Great Lakes. The trailing
extension of the boundary will link with a surface low over eastern
WY.
...Northern High Plains into the upper Great Lakes...
The synoptic front and low-level upslope flow north of the boundary
in the northern High Plains will be the main foci for strong to
severe thunderstorm development Thursday afternoon into night. The
most favorable overlap of steep lapse rates, moderate instability,
and modestly strong vertical shear is expected to reside in those
same areas from the northern High Plains east into the mid MO
Valley.
Aided by forcing for ascent associated with weakening short-wave
trough, diurnally enhanced thunderstorm development is anticipated
Thursday afternoon from portions of eastern MT into western SD, near
and to the north of the stalled surface front. The environment
appears supportive of supercell storm modes capable of large to very
large hail initially, especially across western SD. Some model
guidance suggests that the initial discrete storms may grow upscale
into a forward-propagating MCS that would advance east across SD
Thursday night with an associated risk for severe wind gusts.
A potentially separate strong to severe storm regime may materialize
Thursday afternoon and evening across portions of central and
eastern NE into western IA in association with the lower-latitude
disturbance moving through those areas. Vertical shear will be
weaker than locations farther to the northwest; however, the
presence of a moderately unstable air mass may support isolated
occurrences of large hail and severe wind gusts.
Isolated to widely scattered, strong to severe storms may also
develop along the cold front across parts of the upper Great Lakes
into upper Midwest Thursday afternoon and evening with an associated
damaging wind and/or large hail risk.
..Mead.. 06/02/2026
Read more
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1232 AM CDT Tue Jun 02 2026
Valid 021200Z - 031200Z
...Synopsis...
Weak and diffuse upper-level troughing will be over the Southwest,
with moisture aloft increasing along/east of the Divide in New
Mexico and along portions of the Arizona/New Mexico and New
Mexico-Colorado borders. PWAT values will increase to 0.4-0.6"
across western New Mexico and into far eastern Arizona and southern
Colorado, but surface dewpoints are likely to remain below 40F and
mostly 20-30F. Deep, well-mixed inverted-V soundings are expected
with high cloud bases of 10,000-13,000 feet AGL, with minimum RH of
10-20%. Weaker steering flow (5-15 knots) and deep, dry sub-cloud
layers may create a mix of wet/dry thunderstorms, and storms will be
wetter farther east as coverage and moisture increases. Overall,
forcing for ascent aloft and enough buoyancy should produce isolated
mostly dry thunderstorms over dry fuels (ERCs 80-95th percentile) in
western New Mexico/vicinity.
..Nauslar.. 06/02/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1234 AM CDT Tue Jun 02 2026
Valid 031200Z - 041200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
...Synopsis...
Weak and diffuse upper-level troughing will continue over the
Southwest, with an upper-level trough moving into the northwestern
US. Winds will increase across much of western/northern Nevada into
southern Idaho ahead of the upper-level trough and associated dry
cold front and overlap a dry airmass. Elevated to locally critical
winds/RH are likely across these areas, but recent rainfall should
mitigate fire weather concerns, with this acting as more of a curing
event.
Isolated to scattered mixed wet/dry thunderstorms are likely again
across portions of far eastern Arizona into western New Mexico and
southern Colorado. Storms east of the Divide will be mostly wet with
drier storms along/west of the Divide. However, given the weak
steering flow, storms are likely to linger longer over areas,
especially on the higher terrain. Additionally, slightly deeper
moisture may work its way into portions of eastern Arizona,
especially southeast Arizona, which would also limit the potential
for drier thunderstorms. Fuels remain dry, but some areas will have
a second consecutive day of thunderstorms, which may help limit
ignition potential.
The upper-level ridge will begin to flatten over the Upper Midwest
and Great Lakes, but the stronger winds will be displaced from the
lowest RH. Regardless, fuels remain very dry across these areas
(90th+ percentile) amid above normal temperatures and pockets of RH
below elevated criteria.
..Nauslar.. 06/02/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
|
