RSS Mesoscale Discussions from Storm Prediction Center
No watches are valid as of Sun Jun 14 16:52:02 UTC 2026.
MD 1136 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY FOR FAR EASTERN INDIANA...PORTIONS OF OHIO...WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA...NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA PANHANDLE
Mesoscale Discussion 1136
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1149 AM CDT Sun Jun 14 2026
Areas affected...far eastern Indiana...portions of Ohio...western
Pennsylvania...northern West Virginia Panhandle
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely
Valid 141649Z - 141745Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent
SUMMARY...Thunderstorm activity along and ahead the cold front will
continue to increase in coverage and intensity. Severe potential
will increase into the afternoon.
DISCUSSION...Thunderstorm activity ongoing along the cold front from
central Indiana into western Ohio is increasing in coverage and
intensity. Ahead of the front, filtered daytime heating has warmed
temperatures in Ohio into the mid to upper 80s. This in combination
with dew points in the upper 60s to 70s has yielded MLCAPE around
500-1000 J/kg. Low-level lapse rates are also steepening, with
around 7-7.5 C/km analyzed in SPC Mesoanalysis. Increasingly
favorable thermodynamics in combination with deep layer shear around
45-50 kts will support storm organization and severe potential
downstream. Increasingly favorable low-level shear profiles into PA,
where surface winds have more of a southeasterly component may
support potential for line embedded circulations and perhaps a
tornado. The main hazard will be damaging wind. A watch will will
be needed soon to cover this potential severe risk.
..Thornton/Mosier.. 06/14/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...PBZ...RLX...CLE...ILN...IWX...IND...
LAT...LON 39408067 39038292 39248470 40018526 40788496 41318431
41398314 41518201 41578183 41808034 41557961 41157936
40667941 39877965 39408067
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN
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SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0754 AM CDT Sun Jun 14 2026
Valid 141300Z - 151200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST/APPALACHIANS/MID-ATLANTIC STATES...
...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms capable of damaging wind gusts and
some hail are expected across the Upper Ohio River Valley and
Northeast/Mid-Atlantic States during the afternoon and evening.
...Upper Ohio Valley to New England...
A shortwave trough will steadily amplify over the Great Lakes with a
moderately strong belt of southwesterly mid-level flow across the
region. Near/ahead of the eastward-moving cold front, increasing
thunderstorm development is expected into the afternoon, increasing
in both coverage and intensity. Ample mid-level height falls and
around 40 kt of front-parallel effective shear could support a few
initial/semi-discrete supercells prior to more prevalent
upscale-growing linear modes, with the primary concern being
damaging wind gusts. A brief tornado and/or hail could also occur
given the relative strength of the wind profiles.
...Mid-Atlantic to southern Appalachians/Carolinas...
Widely scattered thunderstorms are expected ahead of the cold front
during the afternoon, generally focusing on a pre-frontal trough as
well as high terrain/Blue Ridge vicinity, with some additional sea
breeze augmentations across the Carolinas/coastal plain. From
roughly southern/eastern Virginia southward, upper 60s to lower 70s
F dewpoints and diurnally steepening low-level lapse rates will
yield a corridor of strong surface-based buoyancy ahead of
storm development. Despite weaker deep-layer shear and limited
midlevel height falls with southward extent, the strongly unstable
air mass will favor eastward-moving thunderstorm clusters capable of
producing damaging wind gusts.
Somewhat stronger mid-level westerlies will reside over the
Mid-Atlantic region, contributing to 30-40 kt of effective shear
amid moderate surface-based buoyancy. This environment will support
several organized clusters capable of scattered damaging wind gusts,
and some locally higher concentrations of wind damage will be
possible with any longer-lived clusters that evolve.
...Southern High Plains...
Along the tail-end of a composite cold front/outflow boundary
extending westward into the southern Rockies/High Plains, widely
scattered thunderstorms will spread southeastward during the
afternoon. Given moist easterly low-level flow and 30-40 kt of
effective shear along the boundary, a couple loosely organized
storms will pose a risk of locally severe gusts and hail across
parts of eastern New Mexico and far west Texas. Additional storms
are expected along the boundary extending eastward across
northern/central Texas to the ArkLaTex, though weaker deep-layer
shear should limit storm longevity/organization.
..Guyer/Broyles.. 06/14/2026
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SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1131 AM CDT Sun Jun 14 2026
Valid 141630Z - 151200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE MIDDLE
OHIO VALLEY INTO THE NORTHEAST...AND FROM THE APPALACHIANS INTO THE
MID-ATLANTIC STATES...
...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms capable of damaging wind gusts and
some hail are expected this afternoon and evening from the Upper
Ohio River Valley into the Northeast, and from the Appalachians into
the Mid-Atlantic States.
...Mid/Upper Ohio Valley to the Northeast/New England...
Morning surface analysis places a low over southeastern Lower MI,
along an extensive cold front that arcs from northwestern Ontario
south-southwestward into southern IL and then more southwestward
through southern MO and central OK into the TX Permian Basin. This
cold front and attendant low are forecast to progress eastward
today, moving just ahead of a shortwave trough pivoting within the
base of a larger upper trough from the OH Valley through the
Northeast. Moderate to strong mid-level flow will accompany this
shortwave, with mesoanalysis currently estimating 60 kt at 500 mb
within the base of this shortwave over the IA/MO border.
Moderate low-level moisture is already in place ahead of this
shortwave trough and associated cold front across the OH Valley,
with upper 60s dewpoints currently observed over much of IN and OH.
Low-level moisture decreases with northeastward extent, with low 60s
dewpoints in place across much of PA and western NY, decreasing to
the upper 50s across much of New England. Filtered daytime heating
will contribute to airmass destabilization ahead of the cold front,
with temperatures in the 80s and dewpoints in the mid 60s resulting
in moderate buoyancy (i.e. MLCAPE around 800-1000 J/kg) across the
Middle to Upper OH Valley. Modest height falls and ascent along the
front will support thunderstorms within this moderately buoyant
environment. Around 40 kt effective shear could support a few
initial/semi-discrete supercells prior to more prevalent
upscale-growing linear modes, with the primary concern being
damaging wind gusts, particularly in the OH/PA border vicinity where
the best overlap of better buoyancy and shear exists. A brief
tornado and/or hail could also occur given the relative strength of
the wind profiles.
Cooler temperatures and lower dewpoints will lead to more limited
buoyancy farther northeast (i.e. from western NY into New England).
However, the airmass is still expected to destabilize, supporting
afternoon/evening thunderstorms along and ahead of the front.
Effective shear around 35 to 40 kt should be sufficient for
occasional organization and some stronger bowing segments.
...Mid-Atlantic to TN/southern Appalachians/Carolinas...
Thunderstorm development is anticipated along the modest lee
troughing expected to extend across the region this afternoon and
evening. This development is forecast to occur well ahead of the
cold front mentioned in the previous subsection, resulting in a
separate area of strong to severe thunderstorm potential from the
Carolinas into the Mid-Atlantic.
Dewpoints across the region currently range from the upper 60s
across the central MD and VA to the low 70s across the central
Carolinas. Heating of this airmass will result in moderate to strong
surface-based buoyancy. Shear will be weaker than areas farther
north but still sufficient for organized clusters and/or perhaps a
few supercells. Primary risk will be damaging gusts, with this
potential maximized from eastern PA and NJ southward through the VA
Tidewater region.
Also worth noting is the trend within the recent guidance for a
modestly organized convective line to progress from Middle
TN/northern AL through northern GA. This line appears to result from
upscale growth of a relatively higher concentration of multicells
initially over the western TN vicinity near a weak surface low.
Consistency within the guidance is high enough to extend 15% wind
probability back into middle TN/northern AL to cover this threat.
...Southern Rockies into the Southern High Plains...
Afternoon thunderstorm development is anticipated across central NM
amid persistent westerly flow aloft and modest mid-level moisture.
Deep-layer shear is strong enough to support a few organized
updrafts capable of hail with any of the early, more cellular
development. Thereafter, a trend towards a more outflow-dominant,
linear structure is anticipated, and a few damaging gusts are
possible with any stronger bowing segments.
..Mosier/Chalmers.. 06/14/2026
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SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1144 AM CDT Sun Jun 14 2026
Valid 141700Z - 151200Z
...Morning Update...
The forecast remains on track. 12z soundings from VEF and PHX
sampled above 90th percentile climatology PWATs, in line with
GOES-derived total PWAT portraying a gradient of 1-1.5" or greater
along/south of the Arizona Central Highlands. Mid-level water vapor
depicts moisture surging northward from the Baja and Sonora regions,
with some thundershowers already occurring over south-central
Arizona. Occasional lightning strikes will pose a concern for new
fire starts where dry fuels exist across the Great Basin and Four
Corners. As with yesterday, erratic gusts of up to 35 mph are
possible with thunderstorm outflows, exacerbating any new/ongoing
fires (such as the Bear Fire in western New Mexico).
Across northern Minnesota/Wisconsin and the Michigan Upper
Peninsula, sustained northerly winds of 10-15 mph will combine with
25-35% RH for a few hours this afternoon. Recent rainfall, sparse
fuels, and limited duration of fire weather conditions preclude the
introduction of broader Elevated highlights. However, localized fire
concerns may emerge where pockets of dry fuels exist.
..Elizalde-Garcia.. 06/14/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1259 AM CDT Sun Jun 14 2026/
...Synopsis...
Isolated dry thunderstorms are forecast from the Four Corners region
into the Great Basin this afternoon along the northern periphery of
a moisture plume originating from Baja. Precipitable water content
of 0.5-0.75 inches, deeply-mixed inverted-V boundary layer profiles,
and LCL-EL mean wind speeds of 15-20 kts will all contribute to
minimal downdraft precipitation efficiency with any storms that
develop. With ERC fuel guidance showing widespread 80th-95th annual
percentiles, lightning ignitions and erratic downdraft winds will
pose fire-weather concerns. While the transition from dry-to-wet
thunderstorms may occur further south of the current outlook area,
some trimming was done to exclude areas that received prior-day
wetting rainfall.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
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