RSS Mesoscale Discussions from Storm Prediction Center
No watches are valid as of Sun Jan 19 06:51:01 UTC 2020.
No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Sun Jan 19 06:51:01 UTC 2020.
SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1119 PM CST Sat Jan 18 2020
Valid 191200Z - 201200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated thunderstorms are possible across portions of northern and
central Florida today and into the early evening. The risk for
severe weather with this activity is minimal.
...Synopsis...
A broad upper-level trough across the eastern US will amplify during
the forecast period. A subtle shortwave impulse within the base of
this larger trough will move across the northern Gulf and impact
portions of northern Florida by afternoon. At the surface, a cold
front will continue to surge southeastward, reaching south Florida
by early Monday morning.
Weak mid-level height falls and weak convergence along the cold
front may lead isolated thunderstorm activity in portions of the
eastern Florida Panhandle and northern Florida during the day.
Though low- to mid-60s F dewpoints will be in place, cloud cover is
likely to limit boundary-layer heating and keep surface-based
buoyancy no more than 200-300 J/kg MLCAPE. Though a convective gust
or two will be possible, weak and veered low-level flow should
minimize potential for storm organization.
..Wendt.. 01/19/2020
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SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1247 AM CST Sun Jan 19 2020
Valid 201200Z - 211200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Showers and a thunderstorm or two may affect south Florida and the
Keys, as well as the Pacific Northwest Coastal areas.
...Discussion...
As complex/large-scale troughing continues to evolve/shift gradually
eastward across the eastern half of the country, a cold front --
already well offshore over the western Atlantic -- will continue
shifting southward and eventually out of south Florida and the Keys.
Showers and possibly a thunderstorm or two -- mainly during the day
on Monday -- will be possible, with any onshore lightning risk
diminishing with time as the front vacates southward.
Farther west, cold high pressure at the surface will prevail through
the period east of the Rockies, as upper ridging advances eastward.
Meanwhile, a northeastern Pacific upper low is expected to continue
eastward and begin nearing the coast early Tuesday morning. As
steeper lapse rates associated with the system progress toward
coastal areas, showers -- and possibly occasional/embedded lightning
-- will likely evolve across the Pacific Northwest Coast, and the
Olympics/Cascades.
Elsewhere, deep moist convection is not expected.
...MAXIMUM RISK BY HAZARD...
Tornado: <2% - None
Wind: <5% - None
Hail: <5% - None
..Goss.. 01/19/2020
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SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1241 AM CST Sun Jan 19 2020
Valid 191200Z - 201200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
...Synopsis...
A cold front will continue to push offshore from the southeastern
and eastern US. An arctic airmass will move southward into the
northern and central Plains by Monday morning. This stout surface
high pressure will produce dry, offshore flow across southern
California. While meteorological conditions would normally favor
fire spread, fuel conditions are not similarly favorable for fire
weather concerns. Elsewhere across the CONUS, cool/cold temperatures
and recent precipitation will also suppress wildfire potential.
..Wendt.. 01/19/2020
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
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