RSS Mesoscale Discussions from Storm Prediction Center
No watches are valid as of Fri Apr 17 11:10:02 UTC 2026.
No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Fri Apr 17 11:10:02 UTC 2026.
SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0153 AM CDT Fri Apr 17 2026
Valid 191200Z - 201200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Sunday.
...Synopsis...
A strong mid-level trough will move from the Great Lakes to
southeast Canada during the day on Sunday. A cold front is forecast
to initially exist from southeast Virginia to the Florida Panhandle.
The cold front will move into the Atlantic and Gulf as surface high
pressure builds in its wake.
Some lingering moisture and weak instability will likely be present
ahead of the front Sunday morning. By late morning, heating may be
sufficient for some storms along and ahead of the front. However,
given the weak instability, no severe weather is expected. This
front will continue southeast into the Atlantic/Gulf by late
afternoon and bring an end to any storm threat across the CONUS
(except for the Florida Peninsula).
..Bentley.. 04/17/2026
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Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0241 AM CDT Fri Apr 17 2026
Valid 201200Z - 251200Z
...DISCUSSION...
A dry, continental airmass will persist across most of the CONUS for
the first part of next week. Severe weather chances will start to
increase by the middle of the week and into the later part of the
week. Forecast guidance consistently shows mid 60s F dewpoints
across the Plains and into the Midwest. However, aloft the pattern
remains quite uncertain. The ECMWF and the GEFS and EPS all show a
developing large-scale trough centered across the western CONUS with
multiple shortwave troughs which could result in severe weather
Day6/Wed to Day 8/Fri. However, the 00Z GFS and the EC-AIFS show a
consolidated mid-level trough which could result in a much more
substantial severe weather event across the central/southern Plains.
At this time, uncertainty is too high for specific risk areas, but
Day6/Wed to Day 8/Fri will likely feature multiple days of severe
weather across portions of the central/southern Plains.
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