RSS Mesoscale Discussions from Storm Prediction Center
No watches are valid as of Mon Feb 9 00:44:01 UTC 2026.
No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Mon Feb 9 00:44:01 UTC 2026.
SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0629 PM CST Sun Feb 08 2026
Valid 090100Z - 091200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
A few thunderstorms are possible along a portion of the coastal
Pacific Northwest tonight.
...Discussion...
Minimal change from the previous outlook with potential for isolated
thunderstorms during the late evening to early overnight. In the
wake of a low-amplitude shortwave trough shifting east across the
Northwest, a plume of steep mid-level lapse rates will expand
southeastward across most of coastal OR. Guidance is consistent in
depicting a surface trough encroaching on the coast by 06-08Z.
Scattered low-topped convection should accompany this trough,
especially towards the WA coast. Buoyancy should remain scant at
most, but may be adequate for a few embedded thunderstorms before
convection weakens inland.
..Grams.. 02/09/2026
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SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0355 PM CST Sun Feb 08 2026
Valid 101200Z - 161200Z
Active mid-level flow will continue to intensify this week as
troughing gradually deepens over the West. Episodic troughing will
overspread the Southwest and Plains through midweek. Gusty downslope
winds are possible in the lee of the Rockies and southern Plains.
This will continue into next weekend when more substantial troughing
appears likely to emerge over the central US. While fire-weather
conditions will remaining localize initially, the increase in
westerly flow overlapped with unusually warm/dry conditions should
increase fire-weather concerns later in the forecast cycle.
...Southwest and Plains...
A southern stream shortwave trough will move from the southern
Rockies and over the Southwest and far southern Plains D3/Tuesday
and D4/Wednesday. This trough will support a weak lee low bolstering
some gusty westerly winds over parts of eastern NM and west TX ahead
of a weak cold front. Some localized fire-weather concerns are
possible given dry fuels and above normal temperature, though the
area extent is uncertain.
More substantial troughing is expected to develop later into the
week and into next weekend as strong flow aloft continues to move
southward. Lee troughing will increase westerly surface winds across
parts of the High Plains D5/Thursday potentially supporting some
potential for more active fire-weather conditions. However, ensemble
spread increases substantially. Additionally, the increase in
troughing will coincide with the potential for precipitation. Given
this uncertainty, no probabilities will be drawn for now despite the
expectation of a general increase in fire-weather potential next
week.
..Lyons.. 02/08/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
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