RSS Mesoscale Discussions from Storm Prediction Center
WW 337 SEVERE TSTM DE MD NJ NY PA CW 142305Z - 150500Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 337
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
705 PM EDT Sun Jun 14 2026
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of
Delaware
Eastern Maryland
New Jersey
Southern New York
Central and Eastern Pennsylvania
Coastal Waters
* Effective this Sunday night and Monday morning from 705 PM
until 100 AM EDT.
* Primary threats include...
Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely
Isolated large hail events to 1 inch in diameter possible
A tornado or two possible
SUMMARY...A broken line of thunderstorms will spread eastward this
evening and pose a threat for mainly scattered severe/damaging
winds, with peak gusts up to 60-70 mph possible. A brief
line-embedded tornado or two and occasional hail may also occur.
The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 60
statute miles east and west of a line from 50 miles northwest of
Monticello NY to 35 miles south southwest of Dover DE. For a
complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline
update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU7).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.
&&
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 333...WW 334...WW
335...WW 336...
AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
1 inch. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few
cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector
27035.
...Gleason
Read more
WW 336 TORNADO PA 142140Z - 150200Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Tornado Watch Number 336
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
540 PM EDT Sun Jun 14 2026
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Tornado Watch for portions of
Western and Central Pennsylvania
* Effective this Sunday afternoon and evening from 540 PM until
1000 PM EDT.
* Primary threats include...
A couple tornadoes possible
Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely
Isolated large hail events to 1 inch in diameter possible
SUMMARY...Ongoing supercells and a broken line of thunderstorms
should pose a threat for a couple of tornadoes and scattered
severe/damaging winds late this afternoon and continuing into the
evening as they move eastward across parts of western and central
Pennsylvania.
The tornado watch area is approximately along and 60 statute miles
north and south of a line from 50 miles west southwest of Dubois PA
to 5 miles north of Williamsport PA. For a complete depiction of the
watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU6).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for
tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch
area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for
threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements
and possible warnings.
&&
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 333...WW 334...WW 335...
AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail
surface and aloft to 1 inch. Extreme turbulence and surface wind
gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean
storm motion vector 27035.
...Gleason
Read more
WW 335 SEVERE TSTM DC MD VA WV CW 142015Z - 150300Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 335
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
415 PM EDT Sun Jun 14 2026
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of
District Of Columbia
Western and Central Maryland
Central and Northern Virginia
Eastern Panhandle of West Virginia
Coastal Waters
* Effective this Sunday afternoon and evening from 415 PM until
1100 PM EDT.
* Primary threats include...
Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely
Isolated large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible
SUMMARY...Thunderstorm coverage is expected to increase this
afternoon and evening within the warm, moist, and unstable
environment in place across the region. Recent 18Z sounding at IAD
sampled 42 kt of 0-6 km shear, which is more than sufficient for
updraft organization. General expectation is for multiple rounds of
occasionally severe storms, with damaging gusts as the primary
severe hazard. Isolated instances of large hail could occur as well.
The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 70
statute miles east and west of a line from 25 miles northeast of
Martinsburg WV to 40 miles southeast of Lynchburg VA. For a complete
depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update
(WOUS64 KWNS WOU5).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.
&&
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 333...WW 334...
AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A
few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector
26030.
...Mosier
Read more
WW 334 SEVERE TSTM NY PA LE LO 141845Z - 150200Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 334
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
245 PM EDT Sun Jun 14 2026
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of
Western New York
Far Northern Pennsylvania
Lake Erie
Lake Ontario
* Effective this Sunday afternoon and evening from 245 PM until
1000 PM EDT.
* Primary threats include...
Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible
Isolated large hail events to 1 inch in diameter possible
SUMMARY...Thunderstorm development is anticipated across the region
this afternoon, along and ahead of a east-moving cold front. Overall
buoyancy will likely remain modest, but moderate to strong
deep-layer shear is in place, supporting the potential for
occasionally organized bowing segments capable of damaging gusts.
The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 60
statute miles east and west of a line from 45 miles northeast of
Rochester NY to 10 miles south southeast of Bradford PA. For a
complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline
update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU4).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.
&&
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 333...
AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
1 inch. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few
cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector
27035.
...Mosier
Read more
WW 333 SEVERE TSTM IN KY OH PA WV LE 141725Z - 150100Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 333
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1225 PM CDT Sun Jun 14 2026
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of
Far Southeast Indiana
Extreme Northern Kentucky
Ohio
Western Pennsylvania
Northern West Virginia
Lake Erie
* Effective this Sunday afternoon and evening from 1225 PM until
800 PM CDT.
* Primary threats include...
Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely
Isolated large hail events to 1 inch in diameter possible
A tornado or two possible
SUMMARY...Thunderstorm development is expected to increase in
coverage and intensity along and ahead of a cold front moving
eastward across the Ohio Valley. Damaging wind gusts will be the
primary severe hazard, although isolated hail is possible within the
strongest updrafts. A low-probability threat for a line-embedded
tornado exists as well, particularly across eastern Ohio and western
Pennsylvania later this afternoon/early evening.
The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 135
statute miles east and west of a line from 20 miles east northeast
of Cleveland OH to 20 miles south southwest of Athens OH. For a
complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline
update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU3).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.
&&
AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
1 inch. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few
cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector
27035.
...Mosier
Read more
WW 0337 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0337 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET
Read more
WW 0336 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 336
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SSE PIT
TO 20 W DUJ TO 15 NNE DUJ TO 25 NNE BFD.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1145
..WEINMAN..06/14/26
ATTN...WFO...PBZ...CTP...
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 336
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
PAC003-005-009-013-021-023-027-031-033-035-047-057-061-063-065-
081-083-087-105-109-111-117-119-129-142340-
PA
. PENNSYLVANIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ALLEGHENY ARMSTRONG BEDFORD
BLAIR CAMBRIA CAMERON
CENTRE CLARION CLEARFIELD
CLINTON ELK FULTON
HUNTINGDON INDIANA JEFFERSON
LYCOMING MCKEAN MIFFLIN
POTTER SNYDER SOMERSET
TIOGA UNION WESTMORELAND
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
Read more
WW 0335 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 335
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1146
..DEAN..06/14/26
ATTN...WFO...LWX...AKQ...RNK...
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 335
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
DCC001-142340-
DC
. DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA
MDC001-003-005-009-013-015-017-021-023-025-027-031-033-037-043-
510-142340-
MD
. MARYLAND COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ALLEGANY ANNE ARUNDEL BALTIMORE
CALVERT CARROLL CECIL
CHARLES FREDERICK GARRETT
HARFORD HOWARD MONTGOMERY
PRINCE GEORGES ST. MARYS WASHINGTON
MARYLAND INDEPENDENT CITIES INCLUDED ARE
Read more
WW 0334 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 334
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 N DUJ TO
30 NE BFD TO 20 SSW SYR.
..WEINMAN..06/14/26
ATTN...WFO...BUF...BGM...CTP...
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 334
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
NYC003-011-015-053-065-067-097-099-101-109-123-142340-
NY
. NEW YORK COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ALLEGANY CAYUGA CHEMUNG
MADISON ONEIDA ONONDAGA
SCHUYLER SENECA STEUBEN
TOMPKINS YATES
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
Read more
WW 0333 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 333
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 NW HTS TO
5 SE PIT TO 10 W BFD.
..WEINMAN..06/14/26
ATTN...WFO...ILN...IWX...CLE...RLX...PBZ...
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 333
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
OHC009-053-105-111-167-142340-
OH
. OHIO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ATHENS GALLIA MEIGS
MONROE WASHINGTON
PAC051-059-125-142340-
PA
. PENNSYLVANIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
FAYETTE GREENE WASHINGTON
WVC001-007-013-017-021-033-035-041-049-051-053-061-069-073-075-
077-083-085-087-091-093-095-097-101-103-105-107-142340-
WV
. WEST VIRGINIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BARBOUR BRAXTON CALHOUN
DODDRIDGE GILMER HARRISON
Read more
MD 1146 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 335... FOR PARTS OF THE MID ATLANTIC
Mesoscale Discussion 1146
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0522 PM CDT Sun Jun 14 2026
Areas affected...Parts of the Mid Atlantic
Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 335...
Valid 142222Z - 150015Z
The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 335
continues.
SUMMARY...The damaging-wind threat may increase into this evening.
Additional watch issuance is probable.
DISCUSSION...Widely scattered strong storms are ongoing early this
evening from south-central VA into western MD and eastern PA.
Moderate buoyancy resides across parts of VA/MD, within a very
warm/moist environment, while continued low-level moisture transport
may allow for some additional destabilization with time into NJ and
eastern PA. Effective shear of 30-40 kt will continue to support
potential for organized convection, and an increase in storm
coverage is expected as a midlevel shortwave trough approaches the
region from the Ohio Valley.
Ongoing semi-discrete convection will pose a threat of damaging wind
and perhaps marginal hail, and a brief tornado cannot be ruled out.
The anticipated increase in storm coverage could lead to modest
upscale growth and one or more localized swaths of damaging wind
through the evening. Additional watch issuance is probable to the
northeast of WW 335 in response to these threats.
..Dean/Gleason.. 06/14/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...OKX...PHI...BGM...AKQ...CTP...LWX...RNK...
LAT...LON 41637443 40007441 37837547 37177643 37267874 37967839
39237784 41247674 41727642 42257591 42117514 41637443
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-110 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN
Read more
MD 1145 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 336... FOR PARTS OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA
Mesoscale Discussion 1145
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0454 PM CDT Sun Jun 14 2026
Areas affected...Parts of western and central Pennsylvania
Concerning...Tornado Watch 336...
Valid 142154Z - 142330Z
The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 336 continues.
SUMMARY...Supercell tornado risk will persist for another few hours.
A couple tornadoes and damaging winds are also possible with the
approaching squall line from the west.
DISCUSSION...The latest radar data from CCX shows a few discrete
supercells evolving across western and central PA ahead of a cold
front and related squall line. The CCX VWP is sampling a 30-40 kt
low-level jet, which is yielding a clockwise-curved low-level
hodograph with ample streamwise vorticity for RM supercells (320
m2/s2 0-1km SRH). This wind profile coupled with a warm/moist PBL
(middle/upper 60s dewpoints) will continue to support a few discrete
supercell structures capable of producing a couple of tornadoes. The
supercell tornado risk will generally be maximized for the next few
hours (through around 01Z), before the core of the low-level jet
translates northward.
Embedded tornadoes and damaging wind gusts will also be possible
with the northeast/southwest-oriented squall line as it advances
eastward across western/central PA, given the aforementioned
favorable downstream environment.
..Weinman.. 06/14/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...CTP...PBZ...
LAT...LON 39867878 39847954 40058008 40378029 40708032 41088004
41667923 41917873 41927762 41817729 41567708 40897727
40317783 39867878
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-125 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN
Read more
SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0248 PM CDT Sun Jun 14 2026
Valid 142000Z - 151200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE MIDDLE
OHIO VALLEY INTO THE NORTHEAST...AND ALONG THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS
INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC...
...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms capable of damaging wind gusts and
some hail are expected this afternoon and evening from the Upper
Ohio River Valley into the Northeast, and from the Appalachians into
the Mid-Atlantic States.
...20z...
The previous forecast remains on track with only minor adjustments
required based on recent convective trends. As of 19:30 UTC, MRMS
imagery depicts an intensifying squall line with a history of severe
gusts moving eastward across northeast OH. This section of the
squall line remains well-phased with ascent and stronger mid-level
flow associated with the shortwave trough aloft. Downstream of the
squall line, a recent 18 UTC RAOB from PIT sampled a strongly
sheared and uncapped environment that should maintain squall line
intensity through early evening and lends confidence in the ongoing
wind forecast.
Further south across the Mid-Atlantic, temperatures continue to warm
into the mid 90s with the early stages of organized convection noted
along the Appalachians and within a surface trough in north-central
NC. Regional 18 UTC soundings sampled a sufficiently buoyant and
strongly sheared environment that will likely promote further
organization and intensification through the evening hours as
convection spreads east/northeast. See MCD #1141 for regional
details and the previous discussion below for additional forecast
information.
..Moore.. 06/14/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1131 AM CDT Sun Jun 14 2026/
...Mid/Upper Ohio Valley to the Northeast/New England...
Morning surface analysis places a low over southeastern Lower MI,
along an extensive cold front that arcs from northwestern Ontario
south-southwestward into southern IL and then more southwestward
through southern MO and central OK into the TX Permian Basin. This
cold front and attendant low are forecast to progress eastward
today, moving just ahead of a shortwave trough pivoting within the
base of a larger upper trough from the OH Valley through the
Northeast. Moderate to strong mid-level flow will accompany this
shortwave, with mesoanalysis currently estimating 60 kt at 500 mb
within the base of this shortwave over the IA/MO border.
Moderate low-level moisture is already in place ahead of this
shortwave trough and associated cold front across the OH Valley,
with upper 60s dewpoints currently observed over much of IN and OH.
Low-level moisture decreases with northeastward extent, with low 60s
dewpoints in place across much of PA and western NY, decreasing to
the upper 50s across much of New England. Filtered daytime heating
will contribute to airmass destabilization ahead of the cold front,
with temperatures in the 80s and dewpoints in the mid 60s resulting
in moderate buoyancy (i.e. MLCAPE around 800-1000 J/kg) across the
Middle to Upper OH Valley. Modest height falls and ascent along the
front will support thunderstorms within this moderately buoyant
environment. Around 40 kt effective shear could support a few
initial/semi-discrete supercells prior to more prevalent
upscale-growing linear modes, with the primary concern being
damaging wind gusts, particularly in the OH/PA border vicinity where
the best overlap of better buoyancy and shear exists. A brief
tornado and/or hail could also occur given the relative strength of
the wind profiles.
Cooler temperatures and lower dewpoints will lead to more limited
buoyancy farther northeast (i.e. from western NY into New England).
However, the airmass is still expected to destabilize, supporting
afternoon/evening thunderstorms along and ahead of the front.
Effective shear around 35 to 40 kt should be sufficient for
occasional organization and some stronger bowing segments.
...Mid-Atlantic to TN/southern Appalachians/Carolinas...
Thunderstorm development is anticipated along the modest lee
troughing expected to extend across the region this afternoon and
evening. This development is forecast to occur well ahead of the
cold front mentioned in the previous subsection, resulting in a
separate area of strong to severe thunderstorm potential from the
Carolinas into the Mid-Atlantic.
Dewpoints across the region currently range from the upper 60s
across the central MD and VA to the low 70s across the central
Carolinas. Heating of this airmass will result in moderate to strong
surface-based buoyancy. Shear will be weaker than areas farther
north but still sufficient for organized clusters and/or perhaps a
few supercells. Primary risk will be damaging gusts, with this
potential maximized from eastern PA and NJ southward through the VA
Tidewater region.
Also worth noting is the trend within the recent guidance for a
modestly organized convective line to progress from Middle
TN/northern AL through northern GA. This line appears to result from
upscale growth of a relatively higher concentration of multicells
initially over the western TN vicinity near a weak surface low.
Consistency within the guidance is high enough to extend 15% wind
probability back into middle TN/northern AL to cover this threat.
...Southern Rockies into the Southern High Plains...
Afternoon thunderstorm development is anticipated across central NM
amid persistent westerly flow aloft and modest mid-level moisture.
Deep-layer shear is strong enough to support a few organized
updrafts capable of hail with any of the early, more cellular
development. Thereafter, a trend towards a more outflow-dominant,
linear structure is anticipated, and a few damaging gusts are
possible with any stronger bowing segments.
Read more
SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0227 PM CDT Sun Jun 14 2026
Valid 161200Z - 171200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE MIDWEST INTO LOWER MICHIGAN...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible Tuesday
afternoon and evening across parts of the Midwest into Lower
Michigan.
... Synopsis ...
Broad mid-level troughing across the eastern US will persist on
Tuesday. A short-wave trough will move across the Great Lakes as it
moves through the basal region of the eastern US long-wave trough.
Late in the forecast period, a second short-wave trough will dig
southeast into the northern Plains.
At the surface, one front will be draped across the northern Gulf
Coast states, suppressing the richest boundary layer moisture to the
south. A second front will quickly move from the Upper Midwest
across the Ohio Valley into the Lower Great Lakes by Wednesday
morning as a surface low slowly pivots across the Lake Superior.
Overnight Tuesday, cyclogenesis will occur across the northern
Plains in response to the approaching short-wave trough. A deepening
surface low will induce more substantial northward moisture
advection from the southern into central Plains.
... Midwest into Lower Michigan ...
Low-level moisture return will be tempered on Tuesday, owing to the
stalled front across the northern Gulf Coast states and only modest
low-level mass response to the approaching mid-level short-wave
trough. That said, modest southwesterly moisture advection ahead of
the cold front should support a narrow corridor of surface dewpoints
rising into the upper-50Fs to low-60Fs. At the same time, mid-level
lapse rates should steepen with the approaching trough, resulting in
MUCAPE between 500-1500 J/kg, conditioned on the quality of the
moisture return. Storms, perhaps multiple rounds, should develop
along or ahead of the advancing front. Gusty winds and hail should
be the main hazards, with storms generally weakening with eastward
extent due to the loss of diurnal heating and weaker moisture
return.
..Marsh.. 06/14/2026
Read more
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0151 PM CDT Sun Jun 14 2026
Valid 151200Z - 161200Z
...Afternoon Update...
After a brief reprieve, hot, dry and windy conditions return to the
northern/central Plains on Day 2/Monday. Strong, northwesterly flow
aloft will overspread the Central States beneath an anchored upper
low in the southern Ontario/Quebec regions. A southward progressing
surface low over the Great Lakes will tighten surface pressure
gradients along the High Plains, promoting northwesterly sustained
winds of 15-25 mph amid 15-20% RH. Elevated highlights have been
expanded across southeastern WY and northwestern NE to reflect
recent guidance, overlapping 95-98th percentile ERCs where receptive
fuels exist (and the ongoing South Fork Fire in northwestern NE).
Despite weaker upper-level support, stronger terrain-driven winds of
15-20 mph (locally greater in gap-flow areas and higher elevations)
and 10-15% RH will promote locally elevated fire weather conditions
across parts of the eastern Great Basin, Four Corners, and Central
Rockies.
..Elizalde-Garcia.. 06/14/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0100 AM CDT Sun Jun 14 2026/
...Synopsis...
Elevated fire-weather conditions are forecast for portions of
eastern Wyoming into Nebraska on Monday, as a dry and breezy
post-frontal airmass produces 15-20 MPH winds with 15-20% relative
humidity across the area. These conditions will overlap with
generally critical fuels, as ERCs are forecast to be in the
95th-98th percentile range. There is still some uncertainty in the
overall coverage and duration of Elevated conditions, so expansion
may occur in future updates.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0448 PM CDT Sun Jun 14 2026
Valid 161200Z - 221200Z
...Synopsis...
Broad upper-level troughing will persist across the northeastern
CONUS through late next week as an upper low remains anchored over
the southern Ontario/Quebec regions. An upper-level ridge will
flatten over the Pacific Northwest on Day 4/Tuesday, eventually
breaking down and shifting eastward over the central CONUS as a
trough moves onshore the West Coast by Day 6-7/Thursday-Friday.
Consequently, some isolated dry thunderstorm potential alongside dry
and breezy conditions with above normal temperatures (and resultant
dry fuels) will support expansive fire concerns through the
remainder of the forecast period. While timing differences in
various NWP guidance currently precludes the introduction of
critical probabilities past Day 6/Friday, highlights may be needed
in future outlook cycles as details become better resolved.
...Days 3-6/Tuesday-Friday - Parts of the Intermountain West...
Well above normal surface temperatures will occur under the upper
ridge through early next week, with record high temperatures
forecast to be met or exceeded in portions of the Pacific Northwest
and along the West Coast. This anomalous, but short-lived, heat wave
is expected to further dry dead fuels over much of the western CONUS
- significantly so over the Pacific Northwest.
As the ridge dampens, robust northwesterly flow aloft should foster
breezy surface winds amid pre-existing warm and dry conditions.
Thus, 40% Critical probabilities have been maintained across eastern
Washington and southeastern Oregon on Day 3/Tuesday where fire
weather conditions will overlap a vast region of cured grasses. As
robust northwesterly flow aloft overspreads the central Rockies and
a dry cold front traverses the central Plains, heightened fire
concerns reemerge as ERCs approach the 90-95th percentile. 40%
Critical probabilities have been maintained across the region on Day
3/Tuesday and Day 4/Wednesday, though spatial extent may be adjusted
in future outlooks with updated guidance and fuel progression. A
residual dry airmass will persist across the Southwest and Great
Basin on Day 5/Thursday, however weaker flow precludes the
introduction of probabilities at this time.
As the upper ridge breaks down, upper-level troughing will move
onshore the West Coast by the end of this week. Above normal
temperatures are forecast across the Pacific Northwest on Day
6/Friday ahead of a southward progressing cold front, which should
bring increasing mid-level moisture and chances for thunderstorms.
Given preceding days of warm and dry conditions and coincident
curing fuels, the isolated nature of thunderstorm potential could
pose a threat for lightning ignitions across a very dry environment.
As a result, 10% probabilities for Dry Thunderstorms have been
introduced across the southern Cascades and northern Great Basin.
These conditions may persist overnight and into Day 7/Saturday,
however there is too much uncertainty in coverage and the transition
to wetting rainfall, precluding additional probabilities for now.
..Elizalde-Garcia.. 06/14/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
|
