RSS Mesoscale Discussions from Storm Prediction Center
No watches are valid as of Sun Feb 8 19:44:02 UTC 2026.
No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Sun Feb 8 19:44:02 UTC 2026.
SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1019 AM CST Sun Feb 08 2026
Valid 081630Z - 091200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
A few thunderstorms are possible along a portion of the coastal
Pacific Northwest tonight.
...Synopsis...
Recent satellite imagery reveals a pair of shortwave troughs moving
across the central CONUS amid modest upper troughing anchored by an
upper low just off the central Baja California coast. Southwesterly
flow extends from the eastern periphery of the upper low through OK,
which is just downstream of the southernmost shortwave trough. Some
showers are currently ongoing within this region, and the general
expectation is for them to continue throughout the period while
gradually shifting eastward with time. Forecast soundings in the
Arklatex vicinity shows scant buoyancy from 600 to 500 mb, which
could result in a few deeper convective elements. However, this
buoyancy is expected to be too shallow and weak for lightning
production.
Farther west, strong westerly/southwesterly flow aloft extends
through the Pacific Northwest, preceding ahead of shortwave trough
currently progressing through the northwest Pacific Ocean. This
shortwave is forecast to continue eastward, moving through the
Pacific Northwest this evening and overnight. Some modest buoyancy
may develop along the coast as cold mid-level temperatures
associated with this system spread eastward, supporting a line of
deeper convection along the axis of the upper trough. Occasional
lightning flashes are possible along the coast within the deepest
cores.
..Mosier/Halbert.. 02/08/2026
Read more
SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0140 PM CST Sun Feb 08 2026
Valid 082000Z - 091200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
A few thunderstorms are possible along a portion of the coastal
Pacific Northwest tonight.
...20z Update...
No changes are needed to the D1 Convective Outlook. See previous
discussion below for more information.
..Thornton.. 02/08/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1019 AM CST Sun Feb 08 2026/
...Synopsis...
Recent satellite imagery reveals a pair of shortwave troughs moving
across the central CONUS amid modest upper troughing anchored by an
upper low just off the central Baja California coast. Southwesterly
flow extends from the eastern periphery of the upper low through OK,
which is just downstream of the southernmost shortwave trough. Some
showers are currently ongoing within this region, and the general
expectation is for them to continue throughout the period while
gradually shifting eastward with time. Forecast soundings in the
Arklatex vicinity shows scant buoyancy from 600 to 500 mb, which
could result in a few deeper convective elements. However, this
buoyancy is expected to be too shallow and weak for lightning
production.
Farther west, strong westerly/southwesterly flow aloft extends
through the Pacific Northwest, preceding ahead of shortwave trough
currently progressing through the northwest Pacific Ocean. This
shortwave is forecast to continue eastward, moving through the
Pacific Northwest this evening and overnight. Some modest buoyancy
may develop along the coast as cold mid-level temperatures
associated with this system spread eastward, supporting a line of
deeper convection along the axis of the upper trough. Occasional
lightning flashes are possible along the coast within the deepest
cores.
Read more
SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1128 AM CST Sun Feb 08 2026
Valid 091200Z - 101200Z
...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are not expected on Monday.
...Discussion...
Cool air aloft will remain across the Pacific Northwest, but
shortwave ridging aloft should limit overall thunderstorm potential.
An upper-level low across northern Mexico will drift slowly east
beneath a developing zonal pattern across the CONUS. Temperatures
aloft will start to warm across southern Arizona and New Mexico.
Therefore, expect the majority of the thunderstorm activity with
this upper low to remain south of the border, across northern
Mexico.
Gulf moisture will start to expand northward across Texas on Monday
as southerly flow returns across the southern Plains. Moisture will
remain shallow and keep instability limited.
Therefore, no thunderstorm activity is expected across the CONUS on
Monday.
..Bentley.. 02/08/2026
Read more
SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1242 PM CST Sun Feb 08 2026
Valid 101200Z - 111200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Tuesday.
...Discussion...
The mid-level pattern across the CONUS will feature 3 mid-level
troughs on Wednesday, one over the Great Lakes, another near far
West Texas and another approaching the California coast. Within this
pattern, a broad region of southerly flow across the southern CONUS
will lead to surface warming/moistening.
Cooling temperatures aloft combined with low-level moistening will
lead to weak instability across parts of West Texas on Tuesday.
Isolated thunderstorms will be possible as the mid-level trough
accelerates and moves northeast.
On the northern periphery of low-level moisture return, likely
somewhere near Tennessee on Tuesday evening, a warm front will
become better defined. Along and north of this front, some elevated
convection may develop within a region of weak isentropic ascent.
Forecast soundings suggest limited lighting potential at this time.
Cooling temperatures aloft and northward transport of central
Pacific surface moisture may lead to some weak instability along the
central California coast Tuesday afternoon and into Tuesday night.
Isolated thunderstorms will be possible, particularly as the primary
trough and cool air aloft moves overhead around 00Z Wednesday.
..Bentley.. 02/08/2026
Read more
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1045 AM CST Sun Feb 08 2026
Valid 081700Z - 091200Z
...Morning Update...
Elevated fire-weather conditions remain possible across parts of the
central High Plains this afternoon. Westerly downslope flow is
forecast to increase through the day from southeastern WY into
northern CO and the western NE Panhandle. While RH appears somewhat
limited owing to morning cloud cover, poor overnight recoveries and
downslope drying will likely still support a couple of hours with RH
of 20-30%. This along with gusts of 20-30 mph and dry fuels will
support some fire-weather concerns through this afternoon.
otherwise, see the prior discussion for more info.
..Lyons.. 02/08/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0112 AM CST Sun Feb 08 2026/
...Synopsis...
Broad upper ridging will overspread the western and central CONUS
today, with multiple pronounced, embedded impulses poised to
traverse the upper ridge through the day. One mid-level impulse,
accompanied by a 70 kt 500 mb jet streak, will overspread the
northern Rockies, encouraging surface low development north of the
Canadian border, with lee troughing expected over the High Plains.
The strongest westerly surface flow is likely over eastern Montana
(i.e. 15-25 mph), in closer proximity to the surface low. However,
RH will likely remain too high for Elevated highlights, though the
stronger winds and drying fuels may promote localized wildfire
spread potential. The better chance for Elevated fire weather
conditions will be along the Wyoming/Colorado/Nebraska border. Here,
15+ mph sustained west-northwesterly surface winds may overlap with
RH dipping to 20 percent for a few hours Monday afternoon, atop
drying fuels that have not received any precipitation for at least a
few weeks.
Localized wildfire potential exists over the Florida Peninsula,
where dry fuels and 20-35 percent RH are expected Sunday afternoon.
However, the lack of an appreciable surface wind field precludes
fire weather highlights.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0117 PM CST Sun Feb 08 2026
Valid 091200Z - 101200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH
PLAINS....
...19z Update...
Widespread elevated and a few hours of critical fire-weather
conditions are likely Monday afternoon across portions of the
southern High Plains. Downslope winds of 20-25 mph are expected
during the afternoon. Stronger gusts to 30 mph are also possible
from eastern NM into the TX Panhandle and western OK. At the same
time, low RH below 20% is expected for a few hours during the
afternoon. Given little recent rainfall, some dry fuels are present
and will likely support fire-weather concerns Monday.
Across the central High Plains, more transient surface winds and the
arrival of the cold front during the afternoon will limit the
duration of elevated fire-weather potential across CO/NE/WY.
However, dry fuels and the overlap of gusty winds and low humidity
should still be sufficient for a few hours of elevated concerns. See
the prior discussion for more information.
..Lyons.. 02/08/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0123 AM CST Sun Feb 08 2026/
...Synopsis...
A mid-level trough will overspread the Great Lakes as another upper
trough impinges on the California coastline tomorrow (Monday). The
progression of the northern U.S. trough will encourage surface low
development over the central Plains Monday afternoon, with dry
downslope flow over portions of the High Plains. Widespread Elevated
conditions are expected across parts of the central High Plains into
Nebraska immediately behind a surface cold front accompanying the
aforementioned surface low. 15-20 mph sustained west-northwesterly
surface winds will overlap with 20-25 percent RH atop dry fuels for
at least a few hours.
Farther south across the southern High Plains, dry downslope flow
will be stronger compared to points farther north. By afternoon peak
heating, southwesterly surface winds may sustain over 25 mph amid
10-15 percent RH, warranting Critical highlights given dry fuels.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
|
