RSS Mesoscale Discussions from Storm Prediction Center
No watches are valid as of Sun Dec 7 05:57:02 UTC 2025.
No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Sun Dec 7 05:57:02 UTC 2025.
SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1141 PM CST Sat Dec 06 2025
Valid 071200Z - 081200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FL
PENINSULA...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated damaging winds and a brief tornado or two are possible,
mainly across central Florida during the late afternoon and evening.
...FL Peninsula...
Abundant convective development is expected later this morning
across the north-central to northeast Gulf along a largely
west/east-oriented quasi-stationary front. Downstream
cloudiness/rain along/north of the front will support pronounced
differential boundary-layer heating across it, from central to north
FL. With most guidance indicating potential for an MCV to evolve
from the morning convection, within the broadly cyclonic mid-level
flow regime across the Southeast, it is plausible that convection
may strengthen along the baroclinic zone towards peak heating. Weak
mid-level lapse rates will remain a key limiting factor to
convective intensity. But adequate deep-layer shear will exist for
transient mid-level rotation. With a warm boundary layer anticipated
across central to south FL, a few strong gusts capable of localized
damaging winds are possible. While the 00Z NAM appears to be an
aggressive outlier with stronger low-level mass response, expected
modest low-level SRH may be sufficient for a brief tornado or two.
..Grams/Thornton.. 12/07/2025
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SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1100 PM CST Sat Dec 06 2025
Valid 081200Z - 091200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Aside from the possibility of a couple weak thunderstorms near and,
perhaps, inland of southern Florida coastal areas, the risk for
thunderstorms will remain negligible across much of the U.S. Monday
through Monday night.
...Synopsis...
The center of a fairly prominent, but relatively compact mid-level
vortex is likely to continue redeveloping east-southeast of southern
Hudson/James Bay, into and across the Newfoundland and Labrador
vicinity during this period. However, models indicate that
large-scale mid-level troughing will be maintained east of the
Rockies through the western Atlantic, downstream of persistent broad
ridging across the eastern mid-latitude Pacific into U.S
Intermountain West.
One notable short wave perturbation embedded within the troughing is
forecast to accelerate east-northeast of the southern Appalachians,
across and offshore of the southern Mid Atlantic, but this may
contribute to suppression of subtropical ridging as far south as the
Caribbean and Bahamas. In lower levels, an associated reinforcing
intrusion of cooler/drier air appears likely to contribute to the
southward advancement of the primary cold front through much of the
remainder of the Florida Peninsula and Gulf Basin.
At the same time, it appears that another notable short wave
perturbation, progressing through the crest of upstream ridge, will
provide support for surface cyclogenesis to the lee of the Canadian
and northern U.S. Rockies by late Monday night. This likely will be
accompanied by downslope aided warming across much of the high
plains, but dry, stable conditions will be maintained there and
across much of the remainder of the U.S.
...Southern Florida/Keys...
Latest model output remains varied concerning potential for
thunderstorm development along/ahead of the southward advancing
front. Mid/upper support appears weak, with potential for
appreciable destabilization, particularly inland of coastal areas,
limited as well.
..Kerr.. 12/07/2025
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SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1145 PM CST Sat Dec 06 2025
Valid 071200Z - 081200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
...Synopsis...
Fire weather concerns are expected to remain low today across the
CONUS. A cold front will drop southward across the Southern Plains.
A few localized areas of breezy/dry conditions may overlap
temporarily across far southern Texas ahead of the cold front. Fuels
in this region are not receptive to fire spread, and as such no
areas are included with this outlook.
..Thornton.. 12/07/2025
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
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SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1146 PM CST Sat Dec 06 2025
Valid 081200Z - 091200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
...Synopsis...
Fire weather concerns are expected to remain low on D2/Monday.
Surface high pressure across the Southern Plains will move eastward
with a cool continental air mass across much of the Plains. Some
lingering dry/breezy conditions will linger across the Texas Permian
Basin. Marginal relative humidity and lack of receptive fuels will
keep the overall fire threat low.
..Thornton.. 12/07/2025
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
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