RSS Mesoscale Discussions from Storm Prediction Center
No watches are valid as of Thu Jan 1 17:46:01 UTC 2026.
No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Thu Jan 1 17:46:01 UTC 2026.
SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1019 AM CST Thu Jan 01 2026
Valid 011630Z - 021200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected today or tonight.
...California...
A shortwave trough will continue to move inland along coastal
north-central California early today, and toward the Sierra and
other parts of Nevada late this afternoon into tonight. With minimal
buoyancy noted in 12z observed soundings, convective potential will
further diminish across far southern California coastal areas today
via frontal passage. More immediately preceding the aforementioned
shortwave trough, potential for a few low-topped thunderstorms will
exist through the afternoon across the central Valley.
..Guyer/Wendt.. 01/01/2026
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SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1112 AM CST Thu Jan 01 2026
Valid 021200Z - 031200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorm potential appears low on Friday.
...Central Gulf Coast and Deep South...
A low-amplitude midlevel shortwave trough will move from the
south-central Plains toward the TN Valley through the period, while
a somewhat more vigorous shortwave progresses east-southeastward
from the Four Corners region toward the lower MS Valley. The
combination of these features will result in an elongated surface
low that will extend from northern MS/AL toward southern LA by
Friday evening.
Returning low-level moisture will result in a somewhat conditionally
favorable environment Friday afternoon from parts of LA into
southern MS, as MLCAPE increases to around 500 J/kg amid
strengthening deep-layer shear. However, poor midlevel lapse rates
and generally weak ascent across the warm sector may tend to limit
surface-based storm potential, with most guidance showing no diurnal
development across this area. A strengthening low-level jet will aid
in the development of elevated convection Friday evening, mainly
across parts of central/northern MS/AL/GA. Weak buoyancy should tend
to limit the organized severe threat with any elevated storms.
Convection may also tend to increase along the immediate central
Gulf Coast near the end of the period, but warm midlevel
temperatures are expected to limit storm depth and intensity in this
area through 12Z Saturday morning.
...Northern CA into southwest OR...
A deep mid/upper-level trough and embedded deep-layer cyclone will
gradually approach the central and northern Pacific Coast through
the period. Within the large-scale trough, an embedded vorticity
maximum is forecast to approach northern CA and southwest OR by mid
to late evening. Colder temperatures aloft and some steepening of
midlevel lapse rates will overspread the region as this vorticity
maximum moves through, which will increase the threat for sporadic
lightning flashes with any stronger convective elements.
Most CAM guidance depicts development of a narrow rain band in
association with the lead vorticity maximum, which moves over
immediate coastal regions between 03-06Z. This band may be
coincident with gusty/locally damaging winds, given the
strengthening background wind field (50+ kt at 850 mb). However,
with stronger cooling aloft and steepening of low-level lapse rates
generally only expected in the wake of this band, the extent to
which any deeper convective processes contribute to wind-damage
potential is uncertain and may remain limited.
..Dean.. 01/01/2026
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SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0927 AM CST Thu Jan 01 2026
Valid 011700Z - 021200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
Locally elevated conditions due to dry and breezy westerly winds are
likely in portions of southeast Wyoming and perhaps along the
eastern front of the southern Rockies this afternoon. Additionally,
westerly winds of 10-15 mph with minimum RH of 30-40% are likely on
portions of the eastern Florida Peninsula into north Florida and
southeast Georgia resulting in locally elevated conditions.
Otherwise, the forecast remains on track, and please see the
previous discussion for more details.
..Nauslar.. 01/01/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0136 AM CST Thu Jan 01 2026/
...Synopsis...
A mid-level trough will eject into the Atlantic as relatively zonal
upper flow (with small embedded impulses) becomes established over
the central U.S., and another mid-level trough approaches the West
Coast today. A surface low will develop across the southern Plains,
encouraging modest downslope flow across the central and southern
High Plains. Despite the stronger (15-25 mph) sustained westerly
surface winds expected across eastern New Mexico into western Texas,
higher RH values will mix eastward with the stronger flow, dampening
wildfire-spread concerns to some degree. While localized
wildfire-spread potential is still possible, these conditions appear
too limited for the introduction of Elevated highlights at this
time.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
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