RSS Mesoscale Discussions from Storm Prediction Center
No watches are valid as of Sat Jan 3 07:54:02 UTC 2026.
No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Sat Jan 3 07:54:02 UTC 2026.
SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1148 PM CST Fri Jan 02 2026
Valid 031200Z - 041200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE SOUTHEAST...AND IN PARTS OF CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST OREGON...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe storms are possible across parts of the Southeast
today. A few marginally severe storms will also be possible from the
Sacramento and northern San Joaquin Valleys to coastal areas of
northern California and southwest Oregon.
...Southeast...
A mid-level trough and an associated cold front will move across the
southeastern U.S. today. Ahead of these features, a moist airmass
will be in place from the central Gulf Coast eastward to southern
Georgia and northern Florida. Surface dewpoints along this
east-to-west corridor will be in the 60s F. Abundant cloud cover
will hamper destabilization, with only weak instability expected in
most areas. As large-scale ascent increases ahead of the approaching
trough, scattered thunderstorms will develop along and ahead of the
front in the early to mid afternoon. Although deep-layer shear will
be strong enough for an isolated severe threat, relatively weak
instability should keep any threat marginal. In areas that
destabilize the most, a brief tornado or a few severe wind gusts
will be possible.
...California/Southwest Oregon...
At mid-levels, a trough will approach the West Coast today, as an
associated 60 to 80 knot jet streak moves into northern California.
At the surface, a 986 mb low offshore will move toward the Pacific
Northwest. From the coasts of central California to southwest
Oregon, onshore flow will exist with surface dewpoints in the lower
to mid 50s F. The low-level moisture will contribute to weak
instability within an strongly sheared environment. This could be
enough for marginally severe wind gusts and possibly a brief
tornado. Further inland across the Sacramento and northern San
Joaquin Valleys, a marginal tornado threat may also develop,
especially as low-level strengthens during the evening.
..Broyles/Marsh.. 01/03/2026
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SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1244 AM CST Sat Jan 03 2026
Valid 041200Z - 051200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Sunday or Sunday night.
...Discussion...
Low-probability thunder potential exists across a broad portion of
the West Coast and CA Central Valley, as well as in southeast FL.
Across the West, the next in a series of shortwave troughs will
approach the Pacific Northwest coast by late afternoon-early evening
Sunday. Farther south, low-amplitude shortwave impulses should
gradually move east across central/southern CA to the eastern Great
Basin. Minimal buoyancy will remain a limiting factor to greater
than very isolated thunder coverage. But cold mid-level temperatures
will favor potential for sporadic lightning flashes that diurnally
peak during the afternoon to early evening.
Over southeast FL, a minority of guidance indicates potential for
convection to briefly develop along a weak cold front sinking south.
Gradual mid-level warming is expected through the afternoon, as a
lingering trough shifts towards the Bahamas, limiting the temporal
window for deep convection to form. Thunderstorm probabilities
appear to be around 10 percent.
..Grams.. 01/03/2026
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SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0151 AM CST Sat Jan 03 2026
Valid 051200Z - 061200Z
...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Thunder potential appears negligible on Monday and Monday night.
...Discussion...
A positive-tilt shortwave trough will progress east across the
Pacific Northwest and northern Rockies, while a separate shortwave
impulse shifts south off the central to southern CA coast. Buoyancy
will be minimal in the West, generally confined to coastal CA and
parts of the Great Basin. A few lightning flashes are possible in
both regions. But with weaker large-scale ascent compared to
D2/Sunday, thunder probabilities appear to be less than 10 percent.
Elsewhere, conditions will be too dry/stable for lightning-producing
convection through the period.
..Grams.. 01/03/2026
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SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1218 AM CST Sat Jan 03 2026
Valid 031200Z - 041200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
...Synopsis...
The western ridge of the past few days will begin to slowly move
east into the central US during the forecast period. This will
result in seasonally weak mid-level flow and a relaxing
surface-pressure gradient across the very dry portions of the
central US. Farther east, across the dry portions of the southeast,
a recent influx in surface moisture ahead of a series of shortwave
troughs have brought bouts of light precipitation, helping to
improve relative humidity percentages above thresholds of concern
for large-scale fire activity.
..Marsh.. 01/03/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
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SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1218 AM CST Sat Jan 03 2026
Valid 041200Z - 051200Z
...Synopsis...
A mid-level ridge will continue to move across the central US on
Sunday. As the ridge axis moves into the Plains, southwest mid-level
flow will begin to strengthen across the Rockies ahead of a
long-wave tough across the West. This downslope flow will result in
minimum afternoon relative humidity values falling into the teens
and twenties percentages across the Front Range of Colorado, and the
adjacent High Plains. Although model guidance currently forecasts
winds generally light (10 mph or less), pattern recognition suggests
stronger afternoon winds will likely develop in response to lee
troughing across the High Plains. As such, elevated fire weather
conditions are expected across eastern Colorado and adjacent areas.
Here, minimum relative humidity percentages of 20% and afternoon
winds of at least 15 mph are likely. If confidence in stronger winds
or lower relative humidity percentages increases, portions of the
highlighted area will need to be upgraded to Critical in subsequent
forecasts.
..Marsh.. 01/03/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
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