RSS Mesoscale Discussions from Storm Prediction Center
No watches are valid as of Sat May 16 20:22:02 UTC 2026.
MD 0737 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR NORTHERN MISSOURI AND SOUTHWEST IOWA
Mesoscale Discussion 0737
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0320 PM CDT Sat May 16 2026
Areas affected...Northern Missouri and southwest Iowa
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible
Valid 162020Z - 162145Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent
SUMMARY...Thunderstorm development is becoming more probable along a
residual outflow boundary in Missouri and along a stalled front in
Iowa. A watch may be needed by 21-22z.
DISCUSSION...Visible satellite imagery reveals a gradual
increase/deepening of cumulus along a residual outflow boundary in
northern MO, along a stalled front in IA, and in the open warm
sector into northeast KS. Farther east, slightly elevated
convection has shown recent signs of intensification to the cool
side of the outflow across north central MO. Continued surface
heating along and south-through-west of these boundaries will
continue to weaken inhibition (relatively weak MLCIN modifying the
18z TOP sounding for 90/64 F), and thunderstorm development will
become more probable. The backed low-level flow to the immediate
cool side of the boundaries will augment vertical shear and support
supercells capable of producing very large hail, wind damage, and a
couple of tornadoes.
..Thompson/Mosier.. 05/16/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...DMX...EAX...OAX...
LAT...LON 40079295 39759276 39339291 39239323 39509384 40069453
40339500 40439552 40729569 40989553 41229457 41169408
41039375 40449327 40079295
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-125 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN
Read more
MD 0736 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY FOR NORTHEAST COLORADO...NORTHWEST KANSAS AND SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA
Mesoscale Discussion 0736
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0236 PM CDT Sat May 16 2026
Areas affected...Northeast Colorado...northwest Kansas and southwest
Nebraska
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely
Valid 161936Z - 162100Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent
SUMMARY...The early stages of thunderstorm development are underway,
with an increasing threat for large hail and severe outflow gusts
into this evening. A severe thunderstorm watch is likely by about
21z.
DISCUSSION...Convection is deepening over the Palmer Divide per 1-km
visible satellite imagery as of 20z. Downstream from this
convection, persistent upslope flow (north of the lee cyclone in
southeast CO) is advecting low-level moisture westward as surface
temperatures warm into the low-mid 80s. The storm environment will
favor initial/high-based supercells capable of producing large hail
and severe outflow gusts, and the supercell threat is most likely to
persist along the southern flank of the convection. An eventual
increase in storm coverage/intensity is expected as the storms
encounter increasing buoyancy with eastward extent, and as
hodographs lengthen with increasing low-level curvature (which could
become sufficient for an isolated tornado or two). Thus, a severe
thunderstorm watch will be likely by about 21z.
..Thompson/Mosier.. 05/16/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...LBF...GLD...BOU...
LAT...LON 39250079 39070133 38930220 38920293 39100361 39430371
40330309 40870222 40980159 40960101 40510071 39830059
39250079
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-110 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN
Read more
MD 0735 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF ILLINOIS AND INDIANA...MUCH OF CENTRAL AND WESTERN KENTUCKY
Mesoscale Discussion 0735
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0213 PM CDT Sat May 16 2026
Areas affected...Southern portions of Illinois and Indiana...much of
central and western Kentucky
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible
Valid 161913Z - 162115Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent
SUMMARY...Thunderstorms are expected to increase in coverage this
afternoon, with scattered severe storms expected capable of damaging
wind gusts, large hail, and possibly a tornado. A watch is possible
and convective trends are being monitored.
DISCUSSION...An MCV was located over southern IL at 19z, and this
feature is expected to continue moving east across the discussion
area this afternoon. A remnant outflow boundary extended east-west
from far southern IL into northern KY and southern IN. Isolated
thunderstorm development was noted over far southern IL, and
deepening cumulus clouds were noted in the vicinity of the Ohio
River as heating/reduction of CINH takes place.
Despite areas of cloud cover, filtered heating will contribute to
moderate MLCAPE with values of 1500 to locally in excess of 2000
J/kg expected. Slightly stronger mid-level flow east of the MCV
will contribute to 30-40 kts of southwesterly deep-layer shear,
supportive of organized storms including supercells. Thunderstorms
should continue to develop/increase in coverage over the next few
hours, with a risk for damaging gusts and large hail. With time,
small linear/bowing segments may develop, along with more focused
wind damage potential.
The potential for a tornado is non zero, and will exist primarily
with any more discrete storm in the vicinity of the weakening
outflow boundary where low-level SRH will be locally maximized.
Convective trends are being monitored, and watch issuance is
possible by 20-21z.
..Bunting/Mosier.. 05/16/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...JKL...ILN...LMK...IND...PAH...ILX...LSX...
LAT...LON 38558900 38828811 38778618 38798458 38598378 38088341
37478372 37178468 37128531 37128589 37128630 37098682
37058718 36898761 36938791 37068837 37518919 38078939
38558900
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN
Read more
SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1130 AM CDT Sat May 16 2026
Valid 161630Z - 171200Z
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS AND CENTRAL PLAINS...
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE OHIO VALLEY...
...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms capable of producing large to very large hail,
severe/damaging winds (some 75+ mph), and a few tornadoes should
occur this afternoon and evening across parts of the central Plains
into Iowa.
...Central High Plains into Mid MO Valley...
Recent surface analysis placed a low over southwest KS, with a warm
front extending through a low over far southeast NE to a third low
over southern WI. The low over southwest KS is forecast to fill
while another low develops back farther west across southeast CO
today. As it does, low-level moisture advection will persist across
the central Plains, while a deeper upper trough traverses the
Intermountain West. Combination of low-level convergence east and
north of the surface low and increasing large-scale ascent will
favor thunderstorm development during the late afternoon/early
evening across northeast CO. This initial activity is expected to be
supercellular, with large to very large hail as the primary risk.
This initial activity should be high-based, with strong downdrafts
resulting in a quick transition to a linear mode. Even so, some
tornado risk is still apparent, particularly with the southernmost
supercells that persist through the early evening when a
strengthening low-level jet will lengthen low-level hodographs
considerably.
Most guidance continues to suggest that an intense bowing cluster,
with significant wind gusts over 75 mph possible, will develop and
spread eastward along/near the warm front from along the southern
NE/northern KS border vicinity through the evening. Given the
organized nature of this line, it should persist throughout most of
the night, and an eastward expansion has been made to the Enhanced
Risk to account for increased probability of strong gusts into more
of southeast NE.
A separate area of intense thunderstorms is anticipated farther east
this afternoon/evening along/near the warm front. Given the ongoing
thunderstorms across northern MO, there is some question to where
the front consolidates this afternoon. Consensus within the guidance
places it from far southeast NE across southern IA, but there is
some chance it ends up a bit farther south in far northern MO.
Robust thunderstorm development is expected along this boundary this
afternoon amid strong low-level moisture advection and heating, and
persistent low-level convergence. Environmental conditions support
supercells capable of all severe hazards, including large to very
large hail (isolated 2"+ inches in diameter) and tornadoes, but a
messy convective mode and related storm interference could disrupt
updrafts and may limit discreteness. Tornado risk will be focused
along/near the front where backed low-level easterly winds may
locally enhance 0-1 km SRH. Some clustering is possible, with an
attendant threat for more damaging gusts wherever this clustering
occurs.
...Mid Mississippi Valley into the Midwest/Ohio Valley...
With the primary shortwave trough well west of the region, mesoscale
features will dominate the severe potential across the region today.
One such feature is the MCV currently moving through southeast MO.
This feature is expected to result in a localized increase in
mid-level flow along its eastern periphery as it progresses
eastward/northeastward along the OH River vicinity. Filtered heating
and/or outflow from the ongoing showers and thunderstorms could
result in a baroclinic zone ahead of this vorticity maximum from
north-central KY into far southern IN. Expectation is that ascent
attendant to the MCS coupled with low-level convergence along this
boundary will result in additional thunderstorm development this
afternoon.
The locally enhanced mid-level flow coupled with modest low-level
southerly flow should result in moderate vertical shear, with
effective bulk shear values from 30 to 40 kt. This is sufficient for
updraft organization, but the mixed boundary layer will likely
support strong downdrafts. The general expectation is for an early
mostly multicell/isolated supercell mode to transition quickly to a
more linear mode with one or more bowing line segments. Isolated
hail is possible early in the convective cycle, with a trend towards
more damaging gusts with time. Given the modest and veered low-level
flow, the tornado potential will be low, but the presence of a
boundary suggests that there remains a low-probability tornado risk.
...Southern High Plains...
Isolated thunderstorms may initiate this afternoon along the surface
dryline from southwest KS into the eastern OK/TX Panhandles and
western OK. While deep-layer shear will be weaker with southward
extent across the southern High Plains, a narrow zone of minimal
MLCIN along/east of the dryline may support isolated convection
capable of producing both locally severe hail and wind gusts.
..Mosier/Bunting.. 05/16/2026
Read more
SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0259 PM CDT Sat May 16 2026
Valid 162000Z - 171200Z
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CENTRAL HIGH
AND CENTRAL PLAINS...
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE
LOWER OHIO VALLEY...
...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms capable of producing large to very large hail,
severe/damaging winds (some 75+ mph), and a few tornadoes remain
likely this afternoon and evening across parts of the central Plains
into Iowa.
...20z Update OH valley/Midwest...
Ahead of several MCVs and outflow from prior convection, ample
heating is supporting destabilization amid mid to upper 60s F
surface dewpoints. Scattered thunderstorm development is likely
across over southern IL/IN into northern KY through this evening.
Moderate buoyancy and ~30 kt of deep-layer shear will promote a mix
of organized multicell structures capable of damaging gusts and some
hail. A tornado or two also remains possible with any stronger
linear clusters or transient supercells able to become established.
See MCD#735 for short term information.
...Central High Plains to the Mid MO Valley...
Several foci for strong to severe convection remain apparent this
afternoon along a broad frontal zone from the Rockies/High Plains to
the Mid MO Valley. Scattered severe storms are expected this
afternoon and evening near the intersection of the surface trough
and stalled front across the mid MO Valley. Moderate to strong
destabilization and 40+ kt of westerly deep-layer shear will support
supercell structures with large hail and damaging winds over te mid
MO Valley. A locally greater tornado risk may develop with any
sustained supercells across parts of eastern NE and southern IA into
northern MO where baked low-level flow near a modifying outflow
boundary intersects with the stalled front.
Initial convective development within the broad upslope regime
across the higher terrain of the central Rockies and adjacent High
Plains should continue to intensify as it moves eastward this
afternoon/evening encountering progressively stronger buoyancy and
shear. This will support supercells with large to very large hail,
damaging gusts and a tornado or two from northeastern CO and
southwest NE into northwest KS. Upscale growth into one or more
clusters with a continued severe threat is expected tonight along
and north of the stationary front across the central Plains. See
MCD#736 for more information.
...Southern Plains...
A conditional risk for strong thunderstorms remains apparent along
the dryline late this afternoon/evening across portions of the
eastern TX Panhandle and western OK. Displaced from the stronger
deep-layer shear, and likely high based owing the strong low-level
mixing, predominately multi cell storms are possible amid steep
mid-level lapse rates and moderate buoyancy (1500-2000 J/kg MLCAPE).
Confidence in convective initiation remains low but a risk for
damaging gusts and hail remains possible.
..Lyons.. 05/16/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1130 AM CDT Sat May 16 2026/
...Central High Plains into Mid MO Valley...
Recent surface analysis placed a low over southwest KS, with a warm
front extending through a low over far southeast NE to a third low
over southern WI. The low over southwest KS is forecast to fill
while another low develops back farther west across southeast CO
today. As it does, low-level moisture advection will persist across
the central Plains, while a deeper upper trough traverses the
Intermountain West. Combination of low-level convergence east and
north of the surface low and increasing large-scale ascent will
favor thunderstorm development during the late afternoon/early
evening across northeast CO. This initial activity is expected to be
supercellular, with large to very large hail as the primary risk.
This initial activity should be high-based, with strong downdrafts
resulting in a quick transition to a linear mode. Even so, some
tornado risk is still apparent, particularly with the southernmost
supercells that persist through the early evening when a
strengthening low-level jet will lengthen low-level hodographs
considerably.
Most guidance continues to suggest that an intense bowing cluster,
with significant wind gusts over 75 mph possible, will develop and
spread eastward along/near the warm front from along the southern
NE/northern KS border vicinity through the evening. Given the
organized nature of this line, it should persist throughout most of
the night, and an eastward expansion has been made to the Enhanced
Risk to account for increased probability of strong gusts into more
of southeast NE.
A separate area of intense thunderstorms is anticipated farther east
this afternoon/evening along/near the warm front. Given the ongoing
thunderstorms across northern MO, there is some question to where
the front consolidates this afternoon. Consensus within the guidance
places it from far southeast NE across southern IA, but there is
some chance it ends up a bit farther south in far northern MO.
Robust thunderstorm development is expected along this boundary this
afternoon amid strong low-level moisture advection and heating, and
persistent low-level convergence. Environmental conditions support
supercells capable of all severe hazards, including large to very
large hail (isolated 2"+ inches in diameter) and tornadoes, but a
messy convective mode and related storm interference could disrupt
updrafts and may limit discreteness. Tornado risk will be focused
along/near the front where backed low-level easterly winds may
locally enhance 0-1 km SRH. Some clustering is possible, with an
attendant threat for more damaging gusts wherever this clustering
occurs.
...Mid Mississippi Valley into the Midwest/Ohio Valley...
With the primary shortwave trough well west of the region, mesoscale
features will dominate the severe potential across the region today.
One such feature is the MCV currently moving through southeast MO.
This feature is expected to result in a localized increase in
mid-level flow along its eastern periphery as it progresses
eastward/northeastward along the OH River vicinity. Filtered heating
and/or outflow from the ongoing showers and thunderstorms could
result in a baroclinic zone ahead of this vorticity maximum from
north-central KY into far southern IN. Expectation is that ascent
attendant to the MCS coupled with low-level convergence along this
boundary will result in additional thunderstorm development this
afternoon.
The locally enhanced mid-level flow coupled with modest low-level
southerly flow should result in moderate vertical shear, with
effective bulk shear values from 30 to 40 kt. This is sufficient for
updraft organization, but the mixed boundary layer will likely
support strong downdrafts. The general expectation is for an early
mostly multicell/isolated supercell mode to transition quickly to a
more linear mode with one or more bowing line segments. Isolated
hail is possible early in the convective cycle, with a trend towards
more damaging gusts with time. Given the modest and veered low-level
flow, the tornado potential will be low, but the presence of a
boundary suggests that there remains a low-probability tornado risk.
...Southern High Plains...
Isolated thunderstorms may initiate this afternoon along the surface
dryline from southwest KS into the eastern OK/TX Panhandles and
western OK. While deep-layer shear will be weaker with southward
extent across the southern High Plains, a narrow zone of minimal
MLCIN along/east of the dryline may support isolated convection
capable of producing both locally severe hail and wind gusts.
Read more
SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1234 PM CDT Sat May 16 2026
Valid 171200Z - 181200Z
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS FAR
NORTHEAST COLORADO...PORTIONS OF NEBRASKA...SOUTHEAST SOUTH
DAKOTA...FAR SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA...AND NORTHWEST IA...
...SUMMARY...
Severe storms are expected Sunday afternoon into Sunday night from
portions of the central Plains into the Upper Midwest. Supercells
with very large hail and strong tornadoes are possible, before one
or more linear bands of storms leads to an increase in the wind
damage risk.
...Synopsis...
A strong upper trough will dig across the western U.S. and pivot
east toward the Rockies/Four Corners vicinity on Sunday into early
Monday. Meanwhile, an early day upper shortwave impulse is expected
to be located over MN/IA. This feature will lift northeast across
the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes through Saturday evening. Enhanced
southwesterly deep layer flow will overspread the central High
Plains to the Upper Midwest while mid to upper 60s F dewpoints
spread north across portions of the southern/central Plains to the
Mid-MO/MS Valley and as far north as southern MN/WI.
At the surface, a lee low will deepen across southeast CO into
western KS. A sharp dryline is expected to extend southward across
west-central KS into far western OK/TX. Meanwhile, a cold front will
extend from eastern SD/central NE into northeast CO by afternoon,
while a warm front extends west to east across southern MN/WI and
into Lower MI. These boundaries will be focus for severe
thunderstorm development during the afternoon/evening.
...Northeast CO into NE/SD/MN/IA...
A volatile environment is expected to develop Sunday afternoon,
particularly across parts of NE/SD/MN/IA. Initial thunderstorm
development is expected across northeast CO into southwest NE within
an upslope flow regime ahead of the approaching synoptic cold front.
Low-level capping and weaker boundary layer moisture is expected
across this area. However, even elevated convection atop the
cooler/drier boundary layer will pose a risk for large to very large
hail given very steep lapse rates, strong vertical shear and
elongated/straight hodographs.
With time, additional convection is expected to develop further east
within the warm sector across parts of eastern NE and southeast SD
near the triple point and on the nose of the dry slot as a subtle
lead shortwave impulse overspreads the region. While some morning
cloudiness and showers could be ongoing across parts of the area
this activity is expected to quickly shift northeast and allow for
clearing. As a result,stronger heating of the moistening airmass
will result in a narrow corridor of strong destabilization (MLCAPE
2500-3500 J/kg). Forecast soundings indicate supercell wind
profiles, with effective shear greater than 40 kt across the region.
Backed low-level winds within the warm sector, veering with height,
will contribute to increasing low-level SRH and favorably curved
low-level hodographs. While the corridor for discrete supercells
will be narrow, partly due to capping and modest large-scale ascent
and partly due to the advancing cold front resulting in upscale
growth, the expectation is for a few supercells capable of producing
strong tornadoes and large to very large hail across northeast
NE/far southeast SD/southwest MN and northwest IA.
With time, one or more linear/bowing segments is expected to develop
near the east/southeast-advancing cold front and as the low-level
jet increases during the evening. An attendant risk of severe wind
gusts will accompany this activity. The severe risk will diminish
with time and eastward extent during the nighttime hours as
instability weakens and capping increases.
...KS/OK vicinity...
A more conditional risk is expected across KS into the southern
Plains vicinity. Capping and weak large-scale ascent will likely
inhibit convection. Nevertheless, a favorable thermodynamic and
kinematic environment will reside along the surface dryline from
west-central KS into western OK and eastern parts of the TX
Panhandle toward western north TX. Hot conditions behind the dryline
and moderate low-level convergence, particularly across the
northwest OK vicinity, may support sufficient mixing/deeper dryline
circulations such that a few storms develop. If these storms
develop, they will likely be higher based. Given very steep low to
midlevel lapse rates, moderate instability, and supercell wind
profiles, large to very large hail and strong/severe wind gusts will
be possible. Any storms that develop may struggle to move off the
dryline, and the corridor for severe potential will likely remain
confined.
...Lower MI...
Isolated thunderstorm are possible Sunday afternoon as a warm front
lifts northward and a weak upper shortwave impulse overspreads the
region. Weak to moderate destabilization is forecast as low-level
moisture increases beneath modest midlevel lapse rates. While
low-level winds will be light, vertically veering wind profiles and
increasing southwesterly mid/upper level flow will support organized
updrafts. Isolated gusty winds or small hail could occur with any
surface-based storms that occur into the evening hours.
..Leitman.. 05/16/2026
Read more
SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0231 PM CDT Sat May 16 2026
Valid 181200Z - 191200Z
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHERN
OKLAHOMA...CENTRAL/EASTERN KANSAS...SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA...PARTS OF
IOWA...AND NORTHWEST MISSOURI...
...SUMMARY...
Numerous strong thunderstorms are expected to develop Monday along a
cold front and dryline extending from the Great Lakes into the
central/southern Plains. Supercells capable of all hazards
(including very large hail and strong to intense tornadoes) will be
possible across central Kansas into southeastern Nebraska.
...Synopsis...
An upper trough is forecast to extend from MT to the Four Corners
Monday morning. An upper shortwave trough emanating from the base of
the larger-scale western U.S. trough is forecast to lift northeast
across the central Plains to the Upper Midwest through the period.
As this occurs, a belt of strong southwesterly midlevel flow will
overspread OK/KS into IA and the Great Lakes vicinity. Beneath
enhanced southwesterly deep layer flow, rich Gulf moisture will
spread north/northeast from the southern Plains into the Mid-MS
Valley and Great Lakes. Meanwhile, a cold front will reside from the
Upper MS Valley to a surface low over central KS during the
afternoon. A dryline will extend southward from the KS surface low
into western OK/west-central TX. A volatile environment is expected
across parts of the warm sector, particularly across KS into IA,
where significant all-hazards severe storms are expected.
...Central KS into southeast NE/southwest IA/northwest MO...
Upper 60s to low 70s F dewpoints are forecast ahead of the dryline
and cold front. This area should remain mostly free from convective
contamination from any continuing convection from late in the Day
2/Sunday period. Strong heating and very steep midlevel lapse rates
will contribute to strong destabilization. Supercell wind profiles
are expected, with backed low-level winds veering with height, while
also increasing in speed. Southerly 850-700 mb flow is forecast to
strengthen in the 21-00z time frame as large-scale ascent also
increases. This will allow for enlarged low-level hodograph
curvature and increasing 0-1 km SRH. Robust convection will develop
within the warm sector and supercell capable of very large hail (2-4
inch diameter), strong to intense tornadoes, and damaging wind gusts
will be possible.
With time, convection will likely grow upscale as the surface cold
front begins to develop southeast through the evening/nighttime
hours.
...Central IA into portions of IL/WI/IN/Lower MI...
Uncertainty is greater with northeast extent on Monday. Ongoing
convection and cloud cover is possible across parts of IA into WI
Monday morning. Regardless, a moist airmass will be in place.
Depending on location and extent of morning convection, airmass
recovery is possible. Furthermore, downstream destabilization into
parts of northern IL/IN and Lower MI seems more likely. This could
result in re-intensification of any morning convection as it spreads
east. While convective evolution remains uncertain, a damaging wind
and hail risk appears possible.
...OK/TX...
A more conditional severe risk exists further south across OK/TX.
Large-scale ascent will remain weaker further south. However, strong
instability within the very moist warm sector will exist. Deep layer
flow will be somewhat less compared to further north, but still
sufficient for supercells. If storms can develop, a risk for large
to very large hail will exist.
..Leitman.. 05/16/2026
Read more
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1112 AM CDT Sat May 16 2026
Valid 161700Z - 171200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR MUCH OF SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO
INTO PORTIONS OF THE TEXAS PANHANDLE...
Minor adjustments were made to the Critical and Elevated areas to
accommodate trends in the latest forecast guidance. This includes
the position of the dryline being slightly farther east/south over
northwest TX. The Elevated area over south/west Colorado was also
adjusted slightly to account for stronger southwest winds being
mixed down to the surface across some of the nearby lower valleys.
Overall across the region, southwest winds (currently sustained near
10-15 mph) are already beginning to increase west of the dryline
where RHs hover near 10-25% under mostly sunny skies over the drawn
areas.
..Stearns.. 05/16/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0116 AM CDT Sat May 16 2026/
...Synopsis...
A mid-level trough will amplify over the Rockies, with surface low
deepening anticipated across the Plains states today. Gradient flow
to the west of the dryline will promote dry and windy conditions
across the Southwest into the southern High Plains. Guidance
consensus depicts widespread 15-25 mph sustained westerly surface
winds overlapping with 15-20 percent RH for much of the afternoon
from the lower Great Basin into western Texas, warranting Elevated
highlights given dry fuels. Critical highlights remain in place
across eastern New Mexico into western Texas, where the
aforementioned meteorological conditions will overspread receptive
fuel beds experiencing fuel loading. Isolated dry thunderstorm
highlights are also in place to address initial lightning strikes
and erratic thunderstorm wind gusts with storm development over dry
fuel beds.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0223 PM CDT Sat May 16 2026
Valid 171200Z - 181200Z
...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF EXTREME
EASTERN NEW MEXICO...EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO...FAR
SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS...AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA
PANHANDLES...
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHWEST AND
SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...
The threat for dangerous wildfire ignition and spread potential on
Day 2/Sunday continues over portions of the southern High Plains.
The overall forecast remains on track with very little change to the
magnitude of southwesterly winds (sustained near 25-30 mph over the
Critical area) and minimum RHs in the single digits. Minimal changes
were made to the drawn areas mainly as a result of slight
fluctuations in the position of the dryline and how far northeast
dry air is anticipated to wrap into the surface low. While
convection will be possible along the boundary of southwest Oklahoma
into south-central Kansas, storms are expected to remain wet and
quickly move into less receptive vegetation providing a much lower
threat than previous days. Even so, Critical to Extremely Critical
fire weather conditions over potential lightning holdovers from
previous days will only exacerbate the overall fire environment
risk.
..Stearns.. 05/16/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0224 AM CDT Sat May 16 2026/
...Synopsis...
**Dangerous wildfire spread conditions are expected across the
southern High Plains tomorrow (Sunday)**
...Southwest into the southern High Plains...
An active fire weather pattern will become established across the
southwestern U.S. tomorrow (Sunday) as a pronounced mid-level
impulse, embedded in a broader upper trough over the Intermountain
West, traverses the Rockies and supports further deepening of a
surface low over the Plains. Strong gradient flow across the Desert
Southwest into the southern High Plains will support widespread
25-30 mph sustained westerly surface winds, amid 5-15 percent RH,
warranting the introduction of broad Critical highlights.
Extremely Critical conditions are expected across extreme eastern
New Mexico into the Texas/Oklahoma Panhandles, extreme southeast
Colorado, and far southwest Kansas. Here, the aforementioned
favorable wind/RH will overspread critically dry fuel beds with fuel
loading, where several wildfires have developed over the past few
days. Widespread sustained surface winds exceeding traditional
Extremely Critical criteria (30+ mph) are somewhat in question.
However, compensating factors for a volatile and dangerous
wildfire-spread scenario include the combination of fuel loading of
grasses exceeding the 95 percentile, as well as the exacerbation of
holdovers from wildfires ignited over the last few days. The
eastward expansion of Extremely Critical highlights may be needed
across the remainder of the Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles, as well
as southwestern Kansas, when the exact position of the dryline may
be pinpointed with relatively higher confidence.
...California Central Valley Region...
A northwesterly mid-level speed max will overspread California
tomorrow, atop a dry and mixed boundary layer. By afternoon peak
heating, 20-25 mph sustained north-northwesterly surface will
overlap with 15-20 percent RH, amid drying fuels, warranting
Elevated highlights.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
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