RSS Mesoscale Discussions from Storm Prediction Center
No watches are valid as of Mon Feb 9 07:51:02 UTC 2026.
No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Mon Feb 9 07:51:02 UTC 2026.
SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1136 PM CST Sun Feb 08 2026
Valid 091200Z - 101200Z
...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms potential appears negligible through tonight.
...Discussion...
A quiescent pattern for thunderstorm potential is anticipated today
into tonight. One exception may be across parts of the Northwest,
amid steep mid-level lapse rates in the wake of a low-amplitude
shortwave trough crossing the northern Rockies to the adjacent High
Plains. Most guidance indicates isolated to widely scattered
low-topped convection, mainly in the form of snow showers, at peak
afternoon heating over the higher terrain of central ID to the
Yellowstone vicinity. Buoyancy will be minimal, and in combination
with weakly forced ascent/cool surface temperatures, thunderstorm
probabilities still appear to be less than 10 percent.
..Grams.. 02/09/2026
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SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1127 PM CST Sun Feb 08 2026
Valid 101200Z - 111200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Tuesday.
...Synopsis...
An upper shortwave trough will move across northern Mexico into TX
Tuesday into early Wednesday. Downstream upper ridging and southerly
low-level flow across the western Gulf will support
warming/moistening of the boundary layer. As the upper shortwave
trough overspreads TX, weak cooling aloft will result in minor
destabilization (less than 400 J/kg MLCAPE), while increasing
large-scale ascent provides support for isolated weak thunderstorms.
Another upper trough will approach the CA coast Tuesday afternoon
into early Wednesday. Cooling aloft along with low to midlevel
moistening will support weak destabilization. Showers and isolated
thunderstorms are possible across portions of central CA,
particularly during the afternoon into Tuesday night as the trough
spreads inland.
..Leitman.. 02/09/2026
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SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0143 AM CST Mon Feb 09 2026
Valid 111200Z - 121200Z
...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorm potential is expected to be low on Wednesday.
...Synopsis...
An upper level ridge will develop east from the Rockies into the
Plains on Wednesday, while a shortwave trough weakens as it moves
from TX to over the Gulf. Thunderstorm potential appears low given a
generally stable airmass across the eastern two-thirds of the CONUS.
Meanwhile, a large-scale upper trough will overspread the western
U.S. Cooling aloft and midlevel moistening may be sufficient for a
couple of lightning flashes across the Great Basin vicinity as the
upper trough impinges on the region, but overall thunderstorm
potential is expected to be minimal.
..Leitman.. 02/09/2026
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SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0115 AM CST Mon Feb 09 2026
Valid 091200Z - 101200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF FAR SOUTHEASTERN
WYOMING INTO FAR WESTERN NEBRASKA...
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF FAR NORTHEASTERN NEW
MEXICO INTO THE OKLAHOMA AND TEXAS PANHANDLES...EXTREME NORTHWESTERN
OKLAHOMA...FAR SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS...
...Synopsis...
Broad upper ridging will overspread the central and eastern CONUS
today, with a pronounced mid-level impulse poised to crest the ridge
over the central Plains. An elongated surface low will form over the
central Plains, with dry northwesterly flow overspreading parts of
the central Plains within a post-cold frontal regime, and dry
downslope flow occurring ahead of a surface trough over the southern
High Plains. Over both areas, the dry and windy surface conditions
will foster wildfire-spread potential.
...Central High Plains...
Guidance differs somewhat regarding how dry the surface airmass will
become by afternoon peak heating behind the cold front over the
central High Plains. Nonetheless, RH may dip as low as 15-20 percent
amid 20-25 mph sustained northwesterly surface winds, atop drying
fuels. Even if RH does not reach Critical thresholds, the stronger
post-cold frontal winds atop dry fuels should compensate to support
wildfire spread.
...Southern High Plains...
By afternoon peak heating, dry downslope flow, in combination with a
very deep and dry boundary layer, will support RH dipping into the
10-15 percent range as sustained west-southwesterly surface winds
exceed 20 mph for several hours. The current guidance consensus
still depicts the best corridor for Critical conditions over
northeastern New Mexico into the Oklahoma/Texas Panhandles and
immediate surrounding areas. Given guidance consistency in such
conditions and continued drying fuels, Critical highlights have been
maintained.
..Squitieri.. 02/09/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
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SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0148 AM CST Mon Feb 09 2026
Valid 101200Z - 111200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
...Synopsis...
An upper ridge will amplify over the Rockies as a mid-level trough
progresses over the Great Lakes toward the Northeast tomorrow
(Tuesday). This upper-air pattern will aid in driving a surface cold
front southward across the central into the southern CONUS through
the period, reinforced by surface high pressure. As a result, a
relatively cooler and moist low-level airmass will overspread the
Plains, limiting significant wildfire-spread potential.
..Squitieri.. 02/09/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
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