RSS Mesoscale Discussions from Storm Prediction Center
No watches are valid as of Thu Feb 12 18:02:02 UTC 2026.
No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Thu Feb 12 18:02:02 UTC 2026.
SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
Issued by 15th OWS Scott Air Force Base IL
1015 AM CST Thu Feb 12 2026
Valid 121630Z - 131200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected.
...Great Basin...
Water-vapor imagery this morning shows an upper low over the
southern Sierra Nevada along with a trough axis extending from
northern NV into central coastal CA. Only a small southeastward
shift of the positively tilted upper trough axis (and associated
cold pocket) is expected through tonight. Pockets of scant
destabilization are forecast mainly this afternoon into the early
evening. Storm intensity will remain weak with only isolated to
widely scattered thunderstorm coverage forecast.
..15_ows.. 02/12/2026
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SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
Issued by 15th OWS Scott Air Force Base IL
1118 AM CST Thu Feb 12 2026
Valid 131200Z - 141200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF WESTERN TEXAS INTO SOUTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms could produce small to
marginally severe hail Friday evening into the overnight hours
across portions of western Texas into south central Oklahoma.
...Texas and Oklahoma...
A positive-tilt upper trough oriented from NV to just offshore from
southern CA/northwest Mexico Friday morning, will shift east through
the period, emerging over the central High Plains to southern
Rockies by Saturday morning. As this occurs, increasing
southwesterly mid/upper flow will overspread TX and OK. Lee low
development over the southern High Plains will foster increasing
south/southeasterly low-level flow across OK/TX, and modest boundary
layer moisture will spread northwest across much of TX into OK.
Mainly 50s to near 60 F dewpoints are expected across
western/central TX into central OK. As cooling aloft ensues amid
moistening vertical thermodynamic profiles, modest destabilization
is expected across western TX and perhaps into southwest OK. MLCAPE
values are generally forecast in the 500-1000 J/kg range, with
weaker elevated instability expected with northeast extent into
central OK.
Large-scale ascent will increase by late afternoon/early evening,
and isolated thunderstorms are expected to develop by 00z. With
temperatures warming into the 70s F across western TX, initial
convection may briefly be surface-based. However, with nocturnal
stabilization of the boundary-layer, convection will tend to become
elevated with time. Supercell wind profiles, characterized by
southeasterly low-level flow veering with height to southwesterly
flow in the mid/upper levels, will support storm organization.
Elongated/straight hodographs above 2-3 km, and steepening midlevel
lapse rates suggest isolated large hail will be the primary risk
with convection over western TX into south central OK, though a
couple of strong gusts also could accompany storms that are
surface-based.
Storm coverage will increase through the evening with northeast
extent as a 30-40 kt southerly low-level jet increases across TX/OK.
A strong storm or two could develop into central OK during the
nighttime hours and produce small hail, but weaker midlevel lapse
rates and MLCAPE less than 500 J/kg should temper the severe risk.
..15_ows.. 02/12/2026
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SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0928 AM CST Thu Feb 12 2026
Valid 121700Z - 131200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
...Morning Update...
A few hours of locally elevated fire weather conditions are possible
this afternoon in the lee of the Lewis Range in northwestern
Montana. Relative humidity will fall between 15-25 percent with
westerly downslope surface winds sustained at 10-20 mph. These
conditions will overlap a fairly dry fuelscape, allowing for
localized fire weather potential. Otherwise, minimal fire weather
conditions are expected across the rest of CONUS.
..Elizalde-Garcia/Lyons.. 02/12/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1254 AM CST Thu Feb 12 2026/
...Synopsis...
Upper ridging will prevail over the Plains as a mid-level trough
approaches from the west, and another upper trough progresses
further over the Atlantic today. Surface high pressure will dominate
over the Mississippi Valley to the East Coast, with moist return
flow expected over the southern Plains given potential weak surface
low development. Overall, quiescent fire weather conditions are
expected CONUS wide. However, a dry low-level airmass will
overspread portions of the Southeast and the central High Plains,
supporting drying fuels and perhaps localized wildfire growth
potential.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
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