SPC - No watches are valid as of Sun May 31 04:02:02 UTC 2026

No watches are valid as of Sun May 31 04:02:02 UTC 2026.

SPC MD 917

MD 0917 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 253... FOR CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST KANSAS INTO ADJACENT PORTIONS OF NEBRASKA AND FAR WESTERN MISSOURI

Mesoscale Discussion 0917
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0925 PM CDT Sat May 30 2026

Areas affected...Central and northeast Kansas into adjacent portions
of Nebraska and far western Missouri

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 253...

Valid 310225Z - 310430Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 253
continues.

SUMMARY...The potential for severe hail and wind should continue
into the late evening hours. However, this threat should become more
isolated with time.

DISCUSSION...Pockets of strong/severe thunderstorms continue across
portions of central/northeast KS and south-central NE. A persistent
convective cluster northeast of the Wichita, KS area has maintained
intensity over the past hour despite the onset of nocturnal cooling
- likely owing to increasing ascent on the southern flank of the
convective cold pool related to the recent onset of the nocturnal
jet. Similarly, new convective cores are noted across central KS
over the cold pool. Weak deep-layer wind shear should limit
longevity of these cores, but given residual buoyancy and increasing
isentropic ascent, some hail threat may linger as stronger cores
briefly pulse to severe limits. 

Further northeast, pockets of strong winds remain evident in
regional velocity imagery across south-central NE and northeast KS.
Additionally, new cell development is noted in the Topeka, KS
vicinity, though cell longevity has been limited - likely due to
similarly modest deep-layer wind shear. Mid-level flow generally
weakens with northeastward extent, which limits confidence in the
potential for a more prolonged/robust severe threat. Consequently,
downstream watch issuance appears unlikely at this point. However, a
localized hail/wind threat should persist for the next several
hours.

..Moore.. 05/31/2026

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...EAX...OAX...TOP...ICT...GID...DDC...

LAT...LON   37579658 37559697 37569722 37669756 38939905 39179909
            39619867 40049859 40449879 40759884 40869877 41439779
            41429729 41309669 40049538 39689508 39189486 38819502
            38159536 37579658 

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN

SPC May 31, 2026 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
      
Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0758 PM CDT Sat May 30 2026

Valid 310100Z - 311200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE BLACK
HILLS INTO PARTS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorm potential will continue this evening and parts
of the overnight, mainly within the central Plains.

...Synopsis...
An arcing zone of convection is ongoing across parts of Nebraska
into central Kansas. The strongest forcing for ascent will be
present in Nebraska as the shortwave trough pivots north through the
evening. This activity will still be capable of large hail, severe
winds, and a couple of tornadoes as the low-level jet modestly
strengthens into the evening. Additional storms will continue in
central Kansas. The 00Z observed TOP sounding showed steep mid-level
lapse rates, but some capping at low levels. While activity will
tend to become elevated into the evening, strong to severe/damaging
winds will remain possible farther east. Large hail potential will
be somewhat mitigated be less favorable storm modes. Within the
southern Plains, an isolated storm is possible on the dryline in the
next couple of hours, but confidence in this scenario is low as
forcing for ascent is weak and low-level stability will increase
with time.

..Wendt.. 05/31/2026


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