RSS Mesoscale Discussions from Storm Prediction Center
WW 436 SEVERE TSTM WI LM 020425Z - 021000Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 436
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1125 PM CDT Wed Jul 1 2026
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of
South central and southeast Wisconsin
Lake Michigan
* Effective this Wednesday night and Thursday morning from 1125
PM until 500 AM CDT.
* Primary threats include...
Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible
Isolated large hail events to 1 inch in diameter possible
A tornado or two possible
SUMMARY...Clusters of storms will move eastward along an east-west
boundary into southeast Wisconsin, with the potential to produce
occasional wind damage, isolated large hail, and possibly an
isolated tornado or two with mesovortices where the cluster
intersects the boundary.
The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 35
statute miles north and south of a line from 30 miles north of
Lonerock WI to 65 miles east southeast of Oshkosh WI. For a complete
depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update
(WOUS64 KWNS WOU6).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.
&&
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 434...WW 435...
AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
1 inch. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few
cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 550. Mean storm motion vector
27035.
...Thompson
Read more
WW 435 SEVERE TSTM IA MN NE SD 020035Z - 020700Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 435
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
735 PM CDT Wed Jul 1 2026
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of
Northwest Iowa
Extreme southwest Minnesota
Central into northeast Nebraska
Extreme southeast South Dakota
* Effective this Wednesday night and Thursday morning from 735 PM
until 200 AM CDT.
* Primary threats include...
Scattered damaging winds and isolated significant gusts to 75
mph possible
Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2
inches in diameter possible
A tornado or two possible
SUMMARY...Thunderstorm development is expected late this evening
from south central/central Nebraska into northwest Iowa. The
environment favors supercells initially with isolated very large
hail up to 2 inches in diameter. Storms are also expected to grow
into a cluster or two, especially in Nebraska, with an increase in
the threat for severe outflow gusts of 60-75 mph through early
tonight. An isolated tornado or two could occur with favorable
storm interactions.
The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 55
statute miles north and south of a line from 35 miles south
southwest of Broken Bow NE to 15 miles east northeast of Spencer IA.
For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch
outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU5).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.
&&
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 430...WW 431...WW
432...WW 433...WW 434...
AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 65 knots. A
few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 600. Mean storm motion vector
25020.
...Thompson
Read more
WW 434 SEVERE TSTM IA MN WI 012350Z - 020600Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 434
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
650 PM CDT Wed Jul 1 2026
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of
North central and northeast Iowa
South central and southeast Minnesota
West central Wisconsin
* Effective this Wednesday night and Thursday morning from 650 PM
until 100 AM CDT.
* Primary threats include...
Scattered damaging winds likely with isolated significant gusts
to 75 mph possible
Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2
inches in diameter possible
A tornado or two possible
SUMMARY...Thunderstorm development is expected this evening across
southern Minnesota and northern IA into west central Wisconsin. The
storm environment will favor a mix of cells and clusters, with a few
supercells possible initially. Supercells will be capable of
producing large hail up to 2 inches in diameter, while damaging
winds (60-75 mph) will be the main concern with the storm clusters
spreading eastward through early tonight. An isolated tornado or
two could occur with favorable storm interactions.
The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 55
statute miles north and south of a line from 30 miles southwest of
Fairmont MN to 60 miles east southeast of Eau Claire WI. For a
complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline
update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU4).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.
&&
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 430...WW 431...WW
432...WW 433...
AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 65 knots. A
few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 550. Mean storm motion vector
27030.
...Thompson
Read more
WW 0436 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0436 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET
Read more
WW 0435 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 435
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..WEINMAN..07/02/26
ATTN...WFO...FSD...OAX...GID...LBF...
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 435
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
IAC021-035-041-059-093-119-133-141-143-149-167-193-020440-
IA
. IOWA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BUENA VISTA CHEROKEE CLAY
DICKINSON IDA LYON
MONONA O'BRIEN OSCEOLA
PLYMOUTH SIOUX WOODBURY
MNC033-063-105-020440-
MN
. MINNESOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
COTTONWOOD JACKSON NOBLES
NEC003-011-019-021-023-027-037-039-041-043-047-051-053-065-071-
073-077-079-081-089-093-107-115-119-121-125-137-139-141-143-163-
167-173-175-177-179-183-020440-
NE
. NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
Read more
WW 0434 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 434
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 ENE OTG
TO 5 W CWA.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1433
..WEINMAN..07/02/26
ATTN...WFO...ARX...DMX...MPX...
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 434
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
IAC005-025-033-037-047-063-067-081-089-091-109-131-147-151-161-
187-189-191-195-197-020440-
IA
. IOWA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ALLAMAKEE CALHOUN CERRO GORDO
CHICKASAW CRAWFORD EMMET
FLOYD HANCOCK HOWARD
HUMBOLDT KOSSUTH MITCHELL
PALO ALTO POCAHONTAS SAC
WEBSTER WINNEBAGO WINNESHIEK
WORTH WRIGHT
MNC039-043-045-047-055-091-099-109-157-169-020440-
MN
. MINNESOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
DODGE FARIBAULT FILLMORE
FREEBORN HOUSTON MARTIN
MOWER OLMSTED WABASHA
Read more
WW 0433 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 433
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NNE PVW
TO 35 NW BGD TO 30 ESE LAA.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1432
..WEINMAN..07/02/26
ATTN...WFO...GLD...DDC...AMA...
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 433
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
KSC039-055-057-063-065-067-069-071-075-081-083-093-101-109-119-
129-135-137-171-175-179-187-189-193-195-199-203-020340-
KS
. KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
DECATUR FINNEY FORD
GOVE GRAHAM GRANT
GRAY GREELEY HAMILTON
HASKELL HODGEMAN KEARNY
LANE LOGAN MEADE
MORTON NESS NORTON
SCOTT SEWARD SHERIDAN
STANTON STEVENS THOMAS
TREGO WALLACE WICHITA
OKC139-020340-
OK
. OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
TEXAS
Read more
WW 0432 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 432
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SW ALB TO
40 NW GFL TO 35 SW BTV TO 45 ENE MSS.
..CHALMERS..07/02/26
ATTN...WFO...BTV...ALY...BUF...
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 432
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
NYC001-019-083-091-093-113-115-020340-
NY
. NEW YORK COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ALBANY CLINTON RENSSELAER
SARATOGA SCHENECTADY WARREN
WASHINGTON
VTC001-003-007-011-013-021-020340-
VT
. VERMONT COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ADDISON BENNINGTON CHITTENDEN
FRANKLIN GRAND ISLE RUTLAND
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
Read more
WW 0431 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 431
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 NNW MEM
TO 40 WSW UOX TO 25 ESE GLH TO 55 NE HEZ TO 30 NNE ESF.
..CHALMERS..07/02/26
ATTN...WFO...JAN...MEG...
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 431
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
LAC035-041-065-083-123-020240-
LA
. LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE
EAST CARROLL FRANKLIN MADISON
RICHLAND WEST CARROLL
MSC011-027-051-055-119-125-133-143-149-151-020240-
MS
. MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BOLIVAR COAHOMA HOLMES
ISSAQUENA QUITMAN SHARKEY
SUNFLOWER TUNICA WARREN
WASHINGTON
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
Read more
WW 0430 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 430
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 NNE HSV
TO 20 WSW RMG TO 30 SSW RMG TO 15 S GAD TO 30 SSE BHM TO 5 NE MGM.
WW 430 WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 020100Z.
..CHALMERS..07/02/26
ATTN...WFO...BMX...HUN...FFC...GSP...MRX...
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 430
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ALC001-007-009-019-021-033-043-047-049-055-057-059-063-065-071-
073-075-077-079-083-089-091-093-095-103-105-107-115-119-125-127-
133-020100-
AL
. ALABAMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
AUTAUGA BIBB BLOUNT
CHEROKEE CHILTON COLBERT
CULLMAN DALLAS DEKALB
ETOWAH FAYETTE FRANKLIN
GREENE HALE JACKSON
JEFFERSON LAMAR LAUDERDALE
LAWRENCE LIMESTONE MADISON
MARENGO MARION MARSHALL
MORGAN PERRY PICKENS
ST. CLAIR SUMTER TUSCALOOSA
WALKER WINSTON
TNC103-020100-
TN
Read more
MD 1433 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 434... FOR FAR SOUTHEAST MN...FAR NORTHEAST IA...AND WESTERN/CENTRAL WI
Mesoscale Discussion 1433
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1028 PM CDT Wed Jul 01 2026
Areas affected...Far southeast MN...far northeast IA...and
western/central WI
Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 434...
Valid 020328Z - 020500Z
The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 434
continues.
SUMMARY...The potential for damaging wind gusts continues across
parts of Severe Thunderstorm Watch 434, especially over parts of
western Wisconsin and vicinity in the near term. Convective trends
are being monitored for a possible downstream watch.
DISCUSSION...The latest radar data from ARX depicts gradual
organization/intensification of a small north/south-oriented
convective cluster moving eastward across far southeast MN and
northeast IA. These storms will continue tracking along/immediately
south of a surface boundary/wind shift, generally demarcated by a
band of elevated thunderstorms. To the south of the boundary, a
warm/moist PBL and around 35 kt of unidirectional 0-3 km shear (per
ARX VWP) may support a locally favorable corridor for damaging winds
with this cluster of storms and any new development along/south of
the boundary with eastward extent. Convective trends are being
monitored for a possible downstream watch.
..Weinman.. 07/02/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...GRB...MKX...ARX...
LAT...LON 43139029 43099149 43189182 43589180 43869150 44129062
44238945 44098892 43768880 43378896 43139029
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN
Read more
SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0759 PM CDT Wed Jul 01 2026
Valid 020100Z - 021200Z
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF
THE UPPER MIDWEST INTO THE GREAT LAKES....
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE NORTHEAST...CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...
...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are expected across the Upper Midwest and Upper
Great Lakes this evening. A couple of tornadoes are possible but
damaging wind gusts are expected to be the more widespread hazard,
in addition to isolated large to very large hail. Severe storms also
remain a concern across parts of the central High Plains and the
Northeast.
...Midwest and Upper Great Lakes...
Steadily deepening convective activity has developed across the
surface boundary in southern Minnesota into northern/western Iowa.
Much of this region has been under the influence of a band of
mid-level cloud cover this afternoon. Comparison of the 18z and 00z
observed soundings from OAX indicate inhibition has eroded. Strong
buoyancy also remains across the area amid steep lapse rates and
ample deep layer shear. A southerly low-level jet is progged to
increase through the evening which should further support convective
development. A mix of supercells and clustered multi-cell
thunderstorms is expected through the evening, given largely
boundary parallel shear. With the increase in the low-level jet, a
tornado or two will remain possible with any more discrete
supercells.
...Northeast...
A cluster of thunderstorms is advancing eastward into portions of
northwestern New York just east of Lake Ontario. Sufficient
instability remains across portions of central/southern New York,
with more rain cooled air from several rounds of showers to the
north. This cluster may pose some potential for occasional strong to
severe winds downstream through the evening given remaining warm
temperatures and moist profiles downstream.
...Central and southern High Plains...
Widely scattered thunderstorm activity continues near the dryline
across Kansas into the Oklahoma/Texas Panhandles. The strongest deep
layer shear is located ahead of a short-wave impulse across western
Kansas, where 30-40 kts is analyzed in SPC mesoanalysis. Steep lapse
rates and deeply mixed profiles will support potential for damaging
wind and large hail with supercells through the evening.
...Southeast...
Several clusters of thunderstorms continue across portions of
Mississippi into eastern Louisiana/southern Arkansas this evening. A
few instances of strong to severe wind will continue before gradual
weakening occurs with loss of daytime heating over the next couple
of hours.
..Thornton.. 07/02/2026
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