RSS Mesoscale Discussions from Storm Prediction Center
WW 286 SEVERE TSTM AR KS MO OK 080550Z - 081300Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 286
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1250 AM CDT Mon Jun 8 2026
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of
Northwest Arkansas
Southeast Kansas
Southwest Missouri
Northeast Oklahoma
* Effective this Monday morning from 1250 AM until 800 AM CDT.
* Primary threats include...
Scattered damaging wind gusts to 65 mph possible
A tornado or two possible
SUMMARY...Thunderstorms will continue to increase in coverage and
intensity through the overnight hours, with occasionally severe
storms possible. Locally damaging winds are the main concern, but
hail and perhaps a tornado or two are also possible.
The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 55
statute miles north and south of a line from 35 miles north of Tulsa
OK to 20 miles north northeast of Harrison AR. For a complete
depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update
(WOUS64 KWNS WOU6).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.
&&
AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 55 knots. A
few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector
27025.
...Hart
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WW 0286 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 286
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 N JLN TO
JLN TO 10 ESE JLN TO 10 ESE JLN TO 15 NW UMN TO 10 NNE UMN TO 45
E SGF.
..WENDT..06/08/26
ATTN...WFO...TSA...SGF...
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 286
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ARC007-015-087-143-081240-
AR
. ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BENTON CARROLL MADISON
WASHINGTON
KSC021-037-081240-
KS
. KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CHEROKEE CRAWFORD
MOC009-043-119-145-209-213-081240-
MO
. MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BARRY CHRISTIAN MCDONALD
NEWTON STONE TANEY
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No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Mon Jun 8 11:46:03 UTC 2026.
SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0222 AM CDT Mon Jun 08 2026
Valid 101200Z - 111200Z
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF EASTERN MINNESOTA...MUCH OF WISCONSIN...CENTRAL AND EASTERN
IOWA...AND NORTHWEST ILLINOIS...
...SUMMARY...
Scattered to numerous severe thunderstorms capable of large to very
large hail, tornadoes, and damaging winds with significant gusts
appear likely across portions of the upper Mississippi Valley and
Midwest Wednesday afternoon into night. More sporadic occurrences of
large hail and damaging winds are possible into the central Plains.
...Synopsis...
The 00z models have trended toward a similarly timed, but slightly
more amplified short-wave trough, which will move through the
northern Plains into upper MS Valley, in tandem with a 50-60+ kt jet
streak. Meanwhile, a stronger upstream system is forecast to amplify
across the northern and central Plains late Wednesday night into
Thursday morning.
At the surface, a cold front initially from the eastern Dakotas into
central High Plains will push east into the upper Great Lakes. A
frontal wave is forecast to develop from eastern SD into central MN
by afternoon, where it may link with an outflow boundary extending
into central WI. The trailing extension of the front is expected to
stall across the mid or lower MO Valley in response to the deepening
of a surface low over the central or southern High Plains.
...Upper Mississippi Valley into upper Great Lakes and mid/lower
Missouri Valley...
A very moist boundary layer, characterized by boundary-layer
dewpoints in the upper 60s to mid 70s is forecast ahead of the
front, which coupled with steep lapse rates, will contribute to
moderate to strong instability by afternoon. Thunderstorms are
expected to develop by early afternoon along the surface front and
any outflow boundaries across the upper MS Valley, with subsequent,
south/southwestward storm development into IA and the lower MO
Valley by mid to late afternoon. The strongest deep-layer shear is
forecast across the upper MS Valley into upper Midwest, with
decreasing bulk-shear magnitudes with southward extent being offset
by stronger instability. The CAPE/shear parameter space will favor
organized storm modes including supercells and bowing structures.
Large to very large hail will likely be the initial hazard, with the
threat for damaging winds and tornadoes increasing as storms move
into WI, eastern IA, and northwest IL, where stronger low-level
shear is forecast.
Additional, isolated to widely scattered storms are anticipated by
late afternoon into evening across portions of the lower MO Valley
into at least eastern KS. While vertical shear will be somewhat
marginal, the strong instability will support strong up/downdrafts
capable of isolated occurrences of large hail and damaging winds.
A separate, elevated thunderstorm regime may materialize Wednesday
night into Thursday morning across portions central/eastern NE and
northern KS as low-level warm advection increases ahead of the next
mid-level trough moving into the northern and central Plains. The
strongest storms will be capable of a large-hail threat.
..Mead.. 06/08/2026
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Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0345 AM CDT Mon Jun 08 2026
Valid 111200Z - 161200Z
...DISCUSSION...
...Day 4/Thursday...
An active period of severe weather is expected from the upper Great
Lakes into Ozark Plateau, with the most concentrated and potentially
most significant severe storms affecting parts of the Midwest.
Within the base of an upper low centered over Manitoba and northwest
Ontario, the models are in good agreement in depicting the
progression of a potent short-wave trough and attending
mid/upper-level jet streaks through the upper Midwest and upper
Great Lakes. There is some model signal that a trailing perturbation
on the immediate cyclonic side of the mid-level jet will overspread
the mid MS Valley Thursday night.
At the surface, a deepening surface low/frontal wave is expected to
develop from central IA into the southern UP of MI during the day,
along a cold front advancing through the upper Midwest and into the
upper Great Lakes. The southwest extension of that boundary will
progress southeast through the lower MO and Mid MS Valleys, while
becoming quasi-stationary across the southern Plains. The specific
boundary location across the Midwest may be modified to some extent
from a thunderstorm complex moving through the area Wednesday
night/early Thursday.
A very moist air mass is expected to reside to the south of the
surface front, which coupled with modestly steep mid-level lapse
rates is expected to yield moderate to strong instability. The
presence of a 50-70 kt mid-level jet streak attending the short-wave
trough will result in relatively strong deep-layer shear along the
frontal zone, with vector orientation becoming increasingly parallel
to the boundary with southward extent. The overall pattern appears
supportive of an organized severe-weather episode from the upper
Great Lakes into mid MS Valley. There is some model signal that a
corridor of enhanced tornado potential could develop along and south
of the surface low track from eastern IA and northern IL into
central and southern WI. That potential scenario will be dictated by
the location of the effective surface boundary.
Additional, more isolated severe storms appear possible across parts
of the Northeast.
...Day 5/Friday...
A number of the 00z models progress a lower-latitude short-wave
trough through the upper OH Valley and lower Great Lakes, which is a
departure from previous model runs. That scenario would increase
severe-weather potential across those areas into New England, and
perhaps the Mid-Atlantic, given the potential for a moderately
unstable air mass across the pre-frontal warm sector. Should
subsequent model runs remain consistent with this recent trend, an
unconditional 15% probability contour may be needed in the next
forecast update.
Elsewhere, Isolated severe storms appear possible across portions of
the southern High Plains.
...Day 6/Saturday...
The ensemble mean solutions are in good agreement in depicting a
mid/upper-level low over Hudson Bay with a belt of strong mid-level
flow extending from slight troughing over the northern High Plains
into the Great Lakes and Northeast. There is more spread across the
deterministic models with respect to the longitudinal position of
that trough, and the position of the associated frontal system. In
general, it appears some severe weather threat could materialize
across the central Plains. However, confidence in that scenario is
low.
...Days 7 and 8/Sunday and Monday...
The ensembles indicate a gradual amplification of the large-scale
pattern, featuring troughing from Hudson Bay into the MS Valley, and
upstream ridging across western Canada and the Pacific Northwest.
The location of any relevant surface frontal systems remains highly
uncertain, as does the location(s) of any severe-weather threat.
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