RSS Mesoscale Discussions from Storm Prediction Center
WW 242 SEVERE TSTM OK TX 232205Z - 240400Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 242
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
505 PM CDT Sat May 23 2026
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of
The western and central Oklahoma Panhandle
The Texas Panhandle and South Plains
* Effective this Saturday afternoon and evening from 505 PM until
1100 PM CDT.
* Primary threats include...
Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible
Isolated large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible
SUMMARY...Storms forming in New Mexico will spread
east-southeastward into the Texas Panhandle through late evening
with potential to grow into one or more clusters with severe outflow
gusts (60-70 mph) and isolated large hail (1-1.5 inches in
diameter).
The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 70
statute miles east and west of a line from 20 miles northwest of
Guymon OK to 10 miles south southeast of Lubbock TX. For a complete
depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update
(WOUS64 KWNS WOU2).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.
&&
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 241...
AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A
few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 450. Mean storm motion vector
29020.
...Thompson
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WW 0242 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 242
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SW DHT TO
5 SW DHT TO 25 NNE DHT TO 5 NNE EHA.
..MEAD..05/24/26
ATTN...WFO...AMA...LUB...
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 242
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
OKC139-240140-
OK
. OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
TEXAS
TXC011-017-045-065-069-079-107-117-125-129-153-179-189-191-195-
205-219-233-279-303-341-345-357-359-369-375-381-393-421-437-
240140-
TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ARMSTRONG BAILEY BRISCOE
CARSON CASTRO COCHRAN
CROSBY DEAF SMITH DICKENS
DONLEY FLOYD GRAY
HALE HALL HANSFORD
HARTLEY HOCKLEY HUTCHINSON
LAMB LUBBOCK MOORE
MOTLEY OCHILTREE OLDHAM
PARMER POTTER RANDALL
ROBERTS SHERMAN SWISHER
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WW 0241 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 241
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 WNW MEI
TO 70 S GWO TO 45 SSW GLH TO 25 E ELD.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0841
..WENDT..05/23/26
ATTN...WFO...JAN...LCH...SHV...LIX...
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 241
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ARC003-017-232140-
AR
. ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ASHLEY CHICOT
MSC007-051-053-079-089-125-151-163-232140-
MS
. MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ATTALA HOLMES HUMPHREYS
LEAKE MADISON SHARKEY
WASHINGTON YAZOO
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
Read more
MD 0843 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 242... FOR THE TEXAS PANHANDLE
Mesoscale Discussion 0843
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0616 PM CDT Sat May 23 2026
Areas affected...The Texas Panhandle
Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 242...
Valid 232316Z - 240045Z
The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 242
continues.
SUMMARY...The potential for severe wind gusts will increase through
02z (9 PM CDT) from the northwest into central Texas Panhandle.
Isolated occurrences of large hail are also possible.
DISCUSSION...Over the past hour, individual thunderstorms have
consolidated in to a line, which extends from south-central Cimarron
County in the western OK Panhandle southwest through western parts
of Dallam and Hartley Counties in the northwest Tx Panhandle as of
2310 UTC. Recent KAMA base velocity data indicate multiple channels
of stronger winds embedded within the line, suggestive of a
gradually organizing cold pool. The downstream air mass across the
TX Panhandle is modestly moist with steep low/mid-level lapse rates
largely contributing to MLCAPE up to 1500 J/kg, per objective
analysis.
The current KAMA VWP is sampling southeasterly winds within the
lowest 2-3-km AGL, which are forecast to strengthen in the 01-03z
time frame, effectively enhancing storm-relative inflow into the
evolving convective system. That coupled with around 30-35 kt of
effective bulk shear, and the steep lapse rates may support the
southeastward acceleration of the ongoing thunderstorm line into the
central Panhandle by 02z (9 PM CDT) or earlier, with an attendant
risk for severe wind gusts of 60-70 mph and isolated occurrences of
large hail.
..Mead.. 05/23/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...AMA...
LAT...LON 35770303 36310298 36520279 36600249 36390162 35790113
35320128 35050156 34990207 35420289 35770303
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN
Read more
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0253 PM CDT Sat May 23 2026
Valid 241200Z - 251200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
...North-Central Montana...
A deepening lee surface trough across the southern Canadian Prairies
under modest westerly flow aloft will support dry and breezy
conditions across northern MT Sunday. West winds of 15-20 mph and RH
as low as 15% is expected Sunday afternoon. The primary impact will
be to areas where green up has been delayed by drought, limiting a
wider fire weather concern.
...Northern Great Basin and Southern Idaho...
A plume of mid to upper-level sub-tropical moisture will arch from
the Sierra Nevada to southern ID, eastward into southern WY and the
CO Rockies on Sunday. Increasing daytime instability within this
corridor of moisture will support isolated high-based thunderstorm
development Sunday afternoon, although fuels (including ongoing
green up) continue to be a limiting factor in potential dry lighting
ignitions for Sunday. Thus, no dry thunderstorm highlights were
introduced for this update.
..Williams.. 05/23/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1252 AM CDT Sat May 23 2026/
...Synopsis...
Upper-level troughing will shift eastward across the northern Great
Lakes region on D2/Sunday, with subtle/weak troughing also in place
across the Southern Plains. Upper-level ridging will linger over the
Southeast and Four Corners regions. A potent upper-level trough will
then approach the Pacific Northwest by the end of the period, with
weak troughing also moving onshore across southern
California/northwestern Mexico. At the surface, a quasi-stationary
surface boundary will extend from the southern Plains into the Ohio
Valley and Mid-Atlantic, with chances for wetting rainfall and
thunderstorms across much of the South and eastern CONUS.
Similar to D1/Saturday, warming temperatures under subtle ridging
will promote RH reductions to 10-20% across much of the West and
into the northern High Plains Sunday afternoon. The lack of a
stronger surface pressure gradient will largely limit sustained
surface wind speeds and thus limit broad fire weather concerns.
Locally elevated fire weather conditions will be possible in favored
terrain/gap areas, however. Locally elevated conditions may also be
possible across portions of northern Montana, especially where any
pockets of drier fine fuels may exist, where a tightened surface
pressure gradient on the southern periphery of a surface low may
support a brief overlap of sustained westerly surface winds of 10-15
mph and RH values of 20-25%.
Lingering mid-level moisture and well-mixed boundary layer profiles
ahead of a subtle mid-level perturbation may support isolated
high-based convection across higher-terrain areas of the northern
Great Basin Sunday afternoon. Limited lightning potential and
sub-critical fuels are again expected to temper the overall
lightning ignition threat at this time, however.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0503 PM CDT Sat May 23 2026
Valid 251200Z - 311200Z
...Synopsis...
An upper-level trough will dig into the western U.S. through much of
next week while a blocking ridge anchors over central CONUS. This
trough and associated increasing southwest flow will bring a fire
weather threat to portions of the Great Basin and Southwest through
at least Day 6/Thursday. A lower amplitude mid-level trough and
associated sub-tropical moisture entering the Southwest should
bring a dry thunderstorm threat to much of northeastern AZ and
western NM on Day 3/Monday, where fuels are more receptive to
ignitions.
...Day 3/Monday...
...Great Basin...
A deepening upper trough and robust mid-level jet enters the Pacific
Northwest Day 3/Monday, resulting in pronounced lee trough evolution
east of the Cascades. Stronger southwest winds of 15-25 mph are
expected across the northwestern Great Basin amid above normal
temperatures and low relative humidity. Recent fire activity
suggests fuels are becoming more receptive to wildfire spread. A 70%
critical probability area was introduced where corridor of enhanced
southwest winds and drier fuels are most likely to align.
...Southwest...
A mid-level shortwave with an accompanying subtropical moisture
plume will support high-based showers and thunderstorms for much of
northeastern AZ and western NM. Recent forecast guidance has trended
upward in precipitation amounts but fuels remain quite dry, with ERC
values hovering around the 90th percentile through this weekend.
Maintained 10% dry thunderstorm probability given receptive fuels
and ongoing fires on the landscape.
...Days 4-6/Tuesday-Thursday - Great Basin and Southwest...
As the upper trough becomes established across the western U.S.,
deep-layer southwesterly flow will sustain a fire weather threat for
portions of the Great Basin, Southwest and Four Corners regions
through midweek. However, the current 40% critical probability areas
may need to be adjusted in subsequent forecast updates if a more
expansive rainfall event unfolds Days 3-4/Monday-Tuesday.
..Williams.. 05/23/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
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