SPC - No watches are valid as of Fri May 1 02:25:02 UTC 2026

No watches are valid as of Fri May  1 02:25:02 UTC 2026.

SPC MD 630

MD 0630 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN AND SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS

Mesoscale Discussion 0630
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0823 PM CDT Thu Apr 30 2026

Areas affected...portions of southwestern and south-central Texas

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

Valid 010123Z - 010400Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...A localized wind and large hail threat will be possible
through late this evening as supercells move out of Mexico across
the Rio Grande.

DISCUSSION...Storms are noted to be occasionally intense on
satellite and radar across the eastern Sierra Madre in Mexico this
evening. Hi-res CAM guidance suggests that a few of these storms may
persist and move across the Rio Grande into the Edwards Plateau
region and perhaps portions of south-central Texas. The air mass
across southern Texas is moderately unstable with strong deep layer
shear ahead of the ejecting wave to the west across Baja California.
Storms would likely be elevated in nature, given diurnal inversion
layer, with the main hazards being large hail and strong to severe
wind. Given some uncertainty in thunderstorm maintenance and the
localized nature of this threat, a watch remains uncertain. Trends
will be monitored through the evening.

..Thornton/Hart.. 05/01/2026

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CRP...EWX...

LAT...LON   28480052 28609975 28609861 28119815 27789836 27509875
            27409958 27449973 28480052 

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN

SPC May 1, 2026 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
      
Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0800 PM CDT Thu Apr 30 2026

Valid 010100Z - 011200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
SOUTHWEST TEXAS...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms with large hail and isolated severe wind gusts will be
possible this evening into tonight across parts of southwest Texas.

...Southwest and South-central Texas...
A mid-level shortwave trough is evident on water vapor imagery over
far northeastern Mexico. At the surface, a quasi-stationary front is
located across south Texas, with a post-frontal airmass in place
over much of southwest and south-central Texas. A strong
thunderstorm is ongoing to the east of the Sierra Madre Oriental
mountains in northern Mexico. This storm will move eastward toward
the Rio Grande and will likely cross the river later this evening.
Mid evening RAP forecast soundings in the Laredo, Texas vicinity
have effective shear around 65 knots with 700-500 mb lapse rates
near 7 C/km. This will support a large hail threat. On the forecast
sounding, the temperature is nearly isothermal in the lowest 1000
meters, with CAPE mainly concentrated above 700 mb suggesting that
any supercell will likely be elevated. The large hail threat could
continue into the late evening and early overnight period, but the
area should be confined to a small area in southwest and
south-central Texas.

..Broyles.. 05/01/2026


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