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  Friday December 14, 2018

RSS Mesoscale Discussions from Storm Prediction Center

SPC - No watches are valid as of Fri Dec 14 18:12:03 UTC 2018

No watches are valid as of Fri Dec 14 18:12:03 UTC 2018.


No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Fri Dec 14 18:12:03 UTC 2018.

SPC Dec 14, 2018 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
      
Day 1 Outlook Image
Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1013 AM CST Fri Dec 14 2018

Valid 141630Z - 151200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe thunderstorms will be possible across the
western/north-central Florida Peninsula through the afternoon and
evening, and possibly across southeastern Georgia and the coastal
Carolinas tonight. Locally damaging winds should be the main threat.

...FL...
No changes have been made to the ongoing forecast.  Morning radar
loop shows widespread showers and thunderstorms affecting the west
coast of the FL Peninsula, with activity spreading eastward across
the SLGT risk region.  This will significantly limit
heating/destabilization.  Nevertheless, forecast soundings show weak
but sufficient CAPE values and strong deep-layer shear today into
tonight.  This may result in a few organized cells within the
broader precipitation shield.  Rotating/bowing segments capable of
damaging winds, or perhaps a tornado spinup are the main concerns
today.  The threat should end from west to east across the FL
Peninsula this afternoon and evening.

..Carolina Coast...
Strong surface pressure-falls are forecast over the eastern
Carolinas later today.  This will result in strengthening southerly
low level winds and rapid destabilization along the immediate coast.
Model solutions suggest multiple clusters of thunderstorms offshore
this evening and tonight.  If a few of these stronger storms can
spread inland, a marginal risk of damaging winds would be present.

..Hart/Broyles.. 12/14/2018

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SPC Dec 14, 2018 1730 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
      
Day 2 Outlook Image
Day 2 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1045 AM CST Fri Dec 14 2018

Valid 151200Z - 161200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS COASTAL
NORTH CAROLINA...

...SUMMARY...
Strong thunderstorms may impact coastal North Carolina early
Saturday, accompanied by at least some risk for severe weather.

...Synopsis and Discussion...
A deep yet filling upper low will move from northern AL and MS
toward the Appalachians providing lift and cooling aloft to much of
the Mid Atlantic. A stationary front will be situated over the
eastern Carolinas with mid to upper 60s F dewpoints near the coast,
with a cold front extending southward across southern FL. A broad
zone of 40 kt southwesterly winds at 850 mb will maintain modest
warm advection ahead of these boundaries, with marginally favorable
shear profiles for a brief supercell or two near the outer banks of
NC during the afternoon. Other storms are likely with heating over
southern FL, but lapse rates aloft, as well as lift, will not favor
much of a severe threat there.

...MAXIMUM RISK BY HAZARD...
Tornado:   2%     - Marginal
Wind:      5%     - Marginal
Hail:     <5%     - None

..Jewell.. 12/14/2018

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SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
          
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook Image
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0954 AM CST Fri Dec 14 2018

Valid 141700Z - 151200Z

...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR THE LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY...

Only minor tweaks to ongoing elevated and critical areas. Current
forecast appears on track. Elevated conditions are possible between
the two elevated areas, but recent rainfall/snowfall should limit
fuel receptiveness.

..Bentley.. 12/14/2018

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1238 AM CST Fri Dec 14 2018/

...Synopsis...
A closed upper-level trough will continue traversing over the
ArkLaTex and Lower Mississippi regions on Friday. Strong
north-northwesterly winds on the backside of this trough will mix to
the surface amid a dry post-frontal airmass. This will likely result
in elevated/critical conditions across portions of west/southern
Texas on Friday. 

...Western Oklahoma/Texas into South Texas...
Strong northwesterly winds (15-30 mph) will develop across West
Texas and into South Texas amid a dry post-frontal airmass (RH
values of 10-35%). Critical conditions are likely to develop in the
Lower Rio Grande Valley with surrounding elevated conditions
stretching from southern Texas Gulf Coast into West Texas. The
strongest winds will develop across South Texas with wind gusts
around 40 mph. 

Farther north across the Texas Panhandle and far western Oklahoma
elevated conditions (sustained surface winds of 15-20 mph, RH values
of 15-25%) are likely to develop on Friday. The elevated area was
confined due to recent precipitation/cooler temperatures as elevated
wind/RH conditions are likely to develop across a broader area in
the Texas Panhandle/northwest Texas. Dry/dormant fuels will remain
receptive to ignition and spread across the delineated areas.

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

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SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
          
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook Image
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1032 AM CST Fri Dec 14 2018

Valid 151200Z - 161200Z

Only minor tweaks to ongoing elevated area. See previous discussion
below for additional details.

..Bentley.. 12/14/2018

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1238 AM CST Fri Dec 14 2018/

...Synopsis...
An upper-level trough will move over the Southeast and into the
Mid-Atlantic as a weak shortwave trough moves across the southern
Plains on Saturday. Lee troughing and momentum aloft associated with
the weak shortwave trough should increase surface winds amid a dry
airmass across portions of the southern High Plains. Dry conditions
will remain across much of the Southwest and southern High Plains. 

...Portions of the Southern High Plains...
Elevated and locally critical conditions are likely to develop from
east-central New Mexico into the Texas Panhandle on Saturday with
sustained west-southwest surface winds of 15-25 mph and RH values of
10-25%. Downslope flow and lee troughing will act to enhance surface
winds amid a dry airmass. Temperatures will remain cool, but daytime
heating and downslope warming will increase temperatures enough to
warrant an elevated area. Fuels remain dry/dormant across this area
and receptive to ignition/spread.

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

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