RSS Mesoscale Discussions from Storm Prediction Center
No watches are valid as of Wed Jan 14 08:13:02 UTC 2026.
No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Wed Jan 14 08:13:02 UTC 2026.
SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1031 PM CST Tue Jan 13 2026
Valid 141200Z - 151200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated thunderstorms are possible across southeast Florida and the
Keys today.
...Synopsis...
A large-scale upper trough will deepen and pivot eastward over the
eastern half of the CONUS today. An embedded shortwave within the
base of the large-scale trough will move across the eastern Gulf and
FL today. This will provide large-scale ascent atop a stalled
frontal boundary across the southern FL Peninsula. Adequate moisture
will support modest buoyancy. However, lackluster lapse rates/warm
temperatures through the midlevels will preclude strong-storm
potential, though a few lightning flashes will be possible.
..Leitman/Lyons.. 01/14/2026
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SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1104 PM CST Tue Jan 13 2026
Valid 151200Z - 161200Z
...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are not forecast.
...South Florida...
Pronounced upper trough will dominate the eastern CONUS during the
upcoming day2 period. Latest model guidance suggests a strong
surface front will have advanced across all but the southern most
part of the FL Peninsula by 15/12z, then quickly surge offshore
around 18z. At this time it appears the prospect for deep
convection, capable of generating lightning, will be minimal as poor
lapse rates and westerly flow ahead of the front do not look
favorable for thunderstorms. Forecast soundings depict weakly
buoyant profiles that rapidly stabilize by mid morning across the
southern Peninsula. Thunderstorm probabilities are less than 10
percent.
..Darrow.. 01/14/2026
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SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0145 AM CST Wed Jan 14 2026
Valid 161200Z - 171200Z
...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
No thunderstorms are anticipated across the US on Friday.
A large upper trough will dominate the weather across the
central/eastern United States on Day3 (Friday), with an upper ridge
along the west coast. Model guidance suggests that low-level
moisture will be quite limited,resulting in generally stable
conditions. Therefore, no thunderstorms are expected.
..Hart.. 01/14/2026
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SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0208 AM CST Wed Jan 14 2026
Valid 141200Z - 151200Z
...Synopsis...
A broad upper trough over the eastern half of the US will rapidly
intensify today and tonight as it merges with a weak upper low over
the southern US. Strong northerly flow aloft will develop as a
surface old front moves southward over the Plains and central US.
Behind the front, strong north/northwesterly winds are likely over
parts of the Plains and eventually the Southeast. This, and
persistent dry conditions may support some elevated fire-weather
potential.
...Central TX...
As strong troughing deepens over the eastern US, a dry cold front
will sweep into the Southern Plains and south TX. Along and behind
the front, a strong surface pressure gradient will drive north winds
of 20-30 mph over much of the southern and central Plains. Although
RH reductions will be limited to around 30% with cooler temperatures
advecting southward, the strong winds and dry fine fuels should
still support an elevated fire risk across central TX.
Surface winds will slacken some with southward extent as the primary
front arrives later in the diurnal cycle across the Rio Grande
Valley and South TX. Drier surface conditions will likely support
afternoon RH minimums near 20-25%. While the arrival of the stronger
northerly winds will be ill timed, the lower RH and drier fuels
should also support some fire-weather risk into South TX through the
afternoon and first part of the evening. The Elevated area was
expanded to the southern border for a conditional risk for Elevated
conditions.
..Lyons.. 01/14/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
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SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0210 AM CST Wed Jan 14 2026
Valid 151200Z - 161200Z
...Synopsis...
As the initial upper trough over the East moves offshore, flow aloft
will turn more northwesterly ahead of a second potent upper trough
moving south out of Canada. A strong jet streak and reinforcing cold
front will approach from the north bolstering strong surface winds.
With dry conditions already in place, the strong winds will likely
support increasing fire-weather potential Thursday.
...Central and southern High Plains...
Ahead of the second shortwave, lee troughing will promote stronger
westerly downslope surface flow over parts of the central High
Plains Thursday. With a dry air mass in place behind the prior cold
front, bolstered by downsloping, afternoon RH values of 15-20% are
expected. Surface winds of 20-30 mph overlapped with the low
humidity will likely favor sustained elevated fire-weather
conditions for several hours given very dry fine fuels over parts of
Northeast CO, western NE and northwestern KS.
A couple of hours of near-critical fire-weather concerns are also
possible across the region Thursday afternoon. While the strongest
gusts (30-40 mph) will likely not overlap with the lowest humidity,
and some light precipitation is also expected D1/Wednesday
potentially briefly limiting the driest fuels. Still with strong
gusts in proximity to RH in the 20-30% range and fuels abnormally
dry, brief critical fire-weather conditions are possible.
Farther south, a similar, albeit slightly weaker, northwesterly flow
regime is expected over parts of the TX Panhandle and eastern NM.
Lee troughing will promote afternoon winds of 15-20 mph amid RH
below 20%. With dry fuels in place, several hours of enhanced
fire-weather conditions appear probable over parts of the southern
Plains Thursday afternoon.
...Southeast...
Very dry surface conditions are expected over the Southeast in the
wake of the strong frontal passage. While afternoon RH values will
likely be below 25%, much cooler surface temperatures and light
precipitation are also expected. This should mitigate fire-weather
concerns to some degree, though localized elevated conditions are
possible given the dry state of areas fuels and the overlap with
breezy offshore winds.
..Lyons.. 01/14/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
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