RSS Mesoscale Discussions from Storm Prediction Center
WW 285 SEVERE TSTM MT ND SD WY 072055Z - 080400Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 285
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
255 PM MDT Sun Jun 7 2026
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of
Southeastern and Eastern Montana
Western and Central North Dakota
Western and Northwestern South Dakota
Northeastern Wyoming
* Effective this Sunday afternoon and evening from 255 PM until
1000 PM MDT.
...THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION...
* Primary threats include...
Widespread damaging winds and scattered significant gusts to 100
mph likely
Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2
inches in diameter possible
A tornado or two possible
SUMMARY...Severe thunderstorms are forecast to develop this
afternoon and intensify across western portions of the Watch. An
initial linear cluster of severe thunderstorms is forecast to evolve
into a bow echo as it matures and moves into the western Dakotas
this evening. A corresponding intensification of the severe-wind
threat is expected with widespread severe gusts expected and 80 to
100 mph gusts likely in localized swaths. Large to very large hail
may also occur with storms that can develop ahead of the squall
line. A tornado is possible with the squall line.
The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 125
statute miles north and south of a line from 15 miles north of
Sheridan WY to 55 miles north northeast of Bismarck ND. For a
complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline
update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU5).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.
&&
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 284...
AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 85 knots. A
few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector
22050.
...Smith
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WW 284 TORNADO AR MO 071930Z - 080000Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Tornado Watch Number 284
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
230 PM CDT Sun Jun 7 2026
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Tornado Watch for portions of
Northwest Arkansas
Southwest Missouri
* Effective this Sunday afternoon and evening from 230 PM until
700 PM CDT.
* Primary threats include...
A couple tornadoes possible
Scattered damaging wind gusts to 60 mph possible
SUMMARY...A few supercells will probably continue to mature across
the Watch area ahead of a weak mid-level disturbance approaching the
Ozarks. A couple of brief tornadoes are possible with the stronger,
more persistent cells through the late afternoon and into the early
evening. Isolated damaging wind gusts are also possible.
The tornado watch area is approximately along and 45 statute miles
east and west of a line from 60 miles north of Springfield MO to 30
miles south of Harrison AR. For a complete depiction of the watch
see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU4).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for
tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch
area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for
threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements
and possible warnings.
&&
AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail
surface and aloft to 0.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind
gusts to 50 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 400. Mean
storm motion vector 20020.
...Smith
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WW 0285 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0285 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET
Read more
WW 0284 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 284
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..CHALMERS..06/07/26
ATTN...WFO...TSA...LZK...SGF...
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 284
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ARC007-009-015-089-101-129-072140-
AR
. ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BENTON BOONE CARROLL
MARION NEWTON SEARCY
MOC009-039-043-057-059-077-085-109-119-167-185-209-213-225-
072140-
MO
. MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BARRY CEDAR CHRISTIAN
DADE DALLAS GREENE
HICKORY LAWRENCE MCDONALD
POLK ST. CLAIR STONE
TANEY WEBSTER
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
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MD 1017 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 284... FOR PORTIONS OF THE OZARKS INTO CENTRAL ARKANSAS
Mesoscale Discussion 1017
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0358 PM CDT Sun Jun 07 2026
Areas affected...portions of the Ozarks into central Arkansas
Concerning...Tornado Watch 284...
Valid 072058Z - 072230Z
The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 284 continues.
SUMMARY...A couple of tornadoes and isolated damaging wind gusts
remain possible across Tornado Watch 284, with this severe potential
possibly extending farther south into central Arkansas.
DISCUSSION...Scattered thunderstorms remain ongoing from central
Missouri southward into central/southern Arkansas ahead of a
mid-level MCV analyzed over northeastern Oklahoma. Several areas of
transient, weak rotation have been noted with marginal supercell
structures over the past 1-2 hours, with a recent report of a brief
tornado in Newton County, Arkansas. While mid-level flow has
weakened some since 19z (per the SGF VAD profile), backed surface
winds across central/southern Missouri are maintaining 75-100 m2/s2
0-1 km SRH. Coupled with modest effective shear around 30 kts (per
latest objective analysis), this will continue to support the
potential for marginal supercells and a couple of tornadoes across
Tornado Watch 284 for at least another 1-2 hours.
Farther south into central Arkansas, modestly weaker low-level shear
and more veered surface winds should yield somewhat reduced tornado
potential; although, a brief tornado cannot be ruled out. High PWAT
content (2+ inches) continues to promote a risk for localized
damaging downburst winds.
..Chalmers.. 06/07/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...LZK...SGF...TSA...
LAT...LON 34449347 35019350 35299369 35469399 35679438 35949455
36309466 36899472 37389468 37779449 38009409 38119343
38059309 37669260 37269229 36659208 35859213 34869226
34549239 34299266 34249303 34249334 34449347
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-110 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
Read more
Public Severe Weather Outlook
PUBLIC SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0420 PM CDT SUN JUN 07 2026
...Severe thunderstorms expected over parts of the northern Plains
this afternoon and tonight...
* LOCATIONS...
Western and Central North Dakota
Eastern Montana
Western South Dakota
* HAZARDS...
Widespread hurricane-force damaging winds
A couple tornadoes
Isolated large hail up to baseball size
* SUMMARY...
A bow echo thunderstorm complex with widespread damaging winds
and significant severe gusts up to 100 mph appear likely over
parts of the northern Plains this afternoon and evening.
Scattered large hail and isolated tornadoes are also possible.
Preparedness actions...
Review your severe weather safety procedures for the possibility
of dangerous weather today. Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio,
weather.gov, or other media for watches and warnings. A watch
means that conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms
over the next several hours. If a severe thunderstorm warning is
issued for your area, move to a place of safety, ideally in an
interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy building.
&&
..Gleason.. 06/07/2026
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SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0300 PM CDT Sun Jun 07 2026
Valid 072000Z - 081200Z
...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF
SOUTHEASTERN MONTANA...EXTREME NORTHWESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA...WESTERN
AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA,...
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PORTIONS OF
SOUTHWESTERN MISSOURI AND FAR NORTHWESTERN ARKANSAS...
...SUMMARY...
A bow echo with 60-100 mph gusts appears likely over the northern
High Plains into the Dakotas this afternoon, with a few instances of
severe hail and isolated tornadoes also possible. A couple of
tornadoes and isolated damaging gusts are still possible across the
Ozarks region.
...20Z Update...
A Category 4/Moderate Risk was introduced to portions of the
northern High Plains. Confidence is increasing in a well-defined
cold-pool-driven bow echo MCS developing across portions of the
northern High Plains later this afternoon. A potentially dense swath
of 60-100 mph gusts appears likely, and a derecho may occur. Current
observations depict a near stationary surface boundary across far
southeastern MT northeastward into western ND along an elongated
surface trough. High-resolution deterministic and ensemble guidance
(including HREF, REFS, and some of the latest WoFS runs) all depict
a classic bow echo MCS traversing this surface boundary, accompanied
by a widespread severe wind swath and scattered 75+ mph gusts. The
MCS would benefit from localized vorticity along this boundary,
which in turn could support book-end vortices and the subsequent
development and sustenance of a rear-inflow jet, lending
plausibility to the guidance consensus. Latest mesoanalysis also
shows continued eroding MLCINH and 2500+ J/kg MLCAPE in place. Low-
to mid-level lapse rates are already exceeding 8 C/km in some spots,
coinciding with 50-60 kts of sfc-8 km bulk shear oriented normal to
the anticipated bow echo leading line, which is favorable for
derecho development. Alternatively, multiple severe-wind producing
multicellular clusters may occur, which would support higher
coverage of severe winds (with gusts occasionally exceeding 75 mph).
Otherwise, the previous forecast remains on track, with only minor
changes made to thunder and severe probabilities to reflect the
latest observations.
..Squitieri.. 06/07/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1139 AM CDT Sun Jun 07 2026/
...MT/WY/Dakotas...
Water-vapor imagery late this morning shows a strong upper trough
over the northwestern CONUS and it is forecast to pivot eastward
through the northern High Plains through tonight. Surface
mesoanalysis placed a low near the MT/ND/SD border with a frontal
zone draped southwest to northeast from northeastern WY into far
western ND. Cyclogenesis and strong heating/moistening of the
boundary layer will favor storm development by mid afternoon in the
vicinity of the Big Horns. Relatively steep low-level lapse rates
on the immediate cool side of the frontal zone and moderate CAPE
values will support a risk of large hail and severe wind gusts once
storms begin to mature. A linear cluster is expected to evolve
during the late afternoon into potentially a bow echo during the
early evening with the severe-wind risk notably increasing and
becoming more widespread. Have increased the intensity highlight
from southeast MT into western portions of ND where it seems
increasingly probable a swath of intense gusts ---possibly a bow
echo--- is progged by a diverse array of different model cores/runs
this morning. This model signal appears reasonable given the
co-location of surface features, lapse rates, and upper-level
support. It is within this mesoscale corridor that localized peak
gusts may range 85-100 mph. Considered an upgrade to Moderate Risk
but will defer to the 20 UTC outlook for additional model run-to-run
continuity and confidence in mesoscale environmental features. This
activity will sweep northeastward during the evening with a gradual
lessening of the wind/hail hazard towards the early overnight as it
moves east into the eastern half of the Dakotas late.
...Ozarks...
A weak trough/low over the central US with embedded disturbances
from OK into IA continues to drift northeastward late this
morning. An associated band of 30-40 knot southwesterly mid-level
winds and deep moisture will lie across the Ozark plateau this
afternoon. The 12 UTC Springfield, MO raob sampled this belt of
stronger flow with 80-kt at 200 mb. Heating of a very moist airmass
with some minor enlargement of low-level hodographs may result a few
weak supercells developing coincident with peak heating. A couple
of brief tornadoes and isolated damaging gusts are possible with
this activity.
...Eastern VA/NC...
A weak surface cold front is sagging southward across central VA
this morning. A combination of strong heating and frontal forcing
will lead to widely scattered thunderstorms this afternoon across
southeast VA and northeast NC. The strongest of these cells could
produce gusty winds.
Read more
SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1232 PM CDT Sun Jun 07 2026
Valid 081200Z - 091200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE CENTRAL
HIGH PLAINS...
...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe storms capable of large hail and perhaps a brief
tornado and damaging gusts are possible Monday afternoon and evening
in northeast Colorado, southeast Wyoming, and into the Nebraska
Panhandle. Additional, more isolated occurrences of large hail and
damaging winds will be possible from the Canadian border into the
Oklahoma and Texas Panhandles. Sporadic damaging winds may occur
from the Ozark Plateau into the Mid-south.
...Synopsis...
An upper low will pivot northward across central Canada with
temporary height rises over the Plains. Moderate southwest flow
aloft will persist from the central Rockies into the northern Plains
during the day as an area of high pressure modifies there. To the
south, low pressure will develop from the central to southern High
Plains, with surface winds veering to easterly over KS/NE and into
eastern CO and WY late. Ample moisture will exist with the zone of
backed easterly flow, and this moist/unstable air mass will
accelerate westward during the evening as 850 winds increase ahead
of a secondary wave moving into the Rockies overnight. A weak
surface trough will also remain over the mid MO Valley, just east of
the western Dakotas surface high.
Elsewhere, a weak midlevel wave will persist into the middle MS and
lower OH Valleys, providing a focus for thunderstorms within the
moist air mass.
...Central Plains...
An area of moderate instability will develop across the central
Plains as strong heating occurs and low-level winds increase out of
the east. Storms are most likely to develop near the higher terrain
from eastern WY into eastern CO, and on the interface of the steeper
low-level lapse rates and moistening/upslope air mass. Favorable
effective shear near 50 kt and steep lapse rates will clearly favor
supercells initially with large damaging hail, with areas of
wind-driven hail as storms evolve eastward through early evening.
Low-level winds veering height may also support a brief tornado or
two. The most concentrated area of severe storms will be from
northeast CO into western NE, but sporadic cells may occur as far
north as the Black Hills area. Finally, a few cells may develop
within the hot inverted-v environment into the TX Panhandle/western
OK during the afternoon with locally damaging gusts.
..Far Northern Plains...
Late Monday night into Tuesday morning, warm/moist advection will
accelerate ahead of the developing trough over the Rockies. Models
are a bit uncertain, but potential will exist for elevated storms
with hail potential over eastern MT into northwest MN as lift and
instability increase.
...Southeast MO into western TN...
A slow-moving midlevel trough should again provide a focus for storm
development, as deep moisture is maintained and areas of heating
occur. New development is most likely to occur with any existing
MCV, or near differential heating zones. Locally strong low-level
shear is anticipated which may aid brief/weak tornado potential.
..Jewell.. 06/07/2026
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SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0241 PM CDT Sun Jun 07 2026
Valid 091200Z - 101200Z
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF
THE DAKOTAS AND MINNESOTA...
...SUMMARY...
Numerous severe thunderstorms are likely to develop across parts of
the northern Plains and Upper Mississippi Valley Tuesday afternoon
and into the night. Several strong tornadoes, very large hail and
damaging winds will be possible. Elsewhere, isolated to widely
scattered severe storms may also occur across the central Plains,
with a risk for large hail and damaging winds.
...Dakotas into western Minnesota...
Significant severe storms are likely Tuesday afternoon and evening,
with the greatest strong tornado potential across northern and
eastern North Dakota into far northwest Minnesota and across the
international border.
A progressive shortwave trough will move out of the Rockies and
across the northern Plains, with a 40-50 kt midlevel speed max and
cooling aloft. Low pressure will develop into ND, and move into
southern Manitoba through 00Z. Importantly, a substantial warm front
is forecast to move through the area, with a rapid increase in
dewpoints and instability. There appears to be minimal failure mode
for the triple point/warm front, with little if any precipitation
forecast ahead of it, and a dry air mass north of it with some
capping. A low-level jet will also increase late in the day with
40-50 kt out of the due south at 850 mb. All this will combine to
produce a dynamic and potentially dangerous scenario for parts of
North Dakota, and/or perhaps near or just north of the Canadian
border. The steep lapse rates aloft, and favorable wind profiles
near and northeast of the surface low may conditionally favor
stronger tornadoes. However, given the setup is three days out, will
maintain Enhanced Risk with CIG1 due to uncertainties.
Otherwise, the entire warm sector extending into SD and western MN
will also be conducive to supercells and eventual bowing structures
with tornadoes, very large hail and damaging winds.
Other severe storms may occur into the central Plains as well with
hail and wind. Substantial instability will also extend
southeastward into IL and surrounding areas, with more of a
conditional risk of isolated afternoon storms as lift will be weaker
in these areas.
..Jewell.. 06/07/2026
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SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0254 PM CDT Sun Jun 07 2026
Valid 081200Z - 091200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHWEST...GREAT
BASIN...CENTRAL ROCKIES...
...Southwest, Great Basin, and central Rockies...
A mid/upper trough and associated stronger southwest flow aloft over
the northwestern CONUS will present a broad fire weather concern for
the eastern Great Basin, portions of the Southwest and central
Rockies on Day 2/Monday. Critical highlights remain largely intact
across southeastern NV, northern AZ, southern UT and south-central
WY where southwest winds of 15-25 mph (locally 30 mph) and RH
reductions in the 5-15% range align with receptive fuels. Elevated
highlights were extended into the CO Rockies and San Luis Valley
based on latest forecast guidance and fuels that are trending drier.
...Northwestern New Mexico...
Introduced isolated dry thunderstorm highlights across northwestern
NM for Day 2/Monday. A stream of mid and upper level Pacific
moisture will continue to infiltrate into the Southwest through
Monday morning. Increasing vertical shear at the base of an upper
trough moving through the Northern Rockies, daytime instability and
sufficient moisture aloft will generate high-based convection across
northwestern NM and Upper Rio Grande Valley Monday afternoon and
evening. ERC values in the 90th percentile and above suggests fuels
more receptive to ignition. This moisture plume will be transient,
with a return to dry and breezy conditions for much of the Southwest
and Four Corners region beginning on Tuesday as the upper trough
ejects into the northern Plains.
...Central High Plains...
Adjusted existing isolated dry thunderstorm highlights to reflect
latest forecast guidance and expectation for wetting rains
associated with potentially severe convection across northeastern
CO, NE Panhandle and far eastern WY. Dry lightning risk is still
present upon initial thunderstorm (and nascent rain cores)
development more adjacent to the Laramie Mountains in WY and CO
Front Range in north-central CO.
..Williams.. 06/07/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0122 AM CDT Sun Jun 07 2026/
...Synopsis...
A longwave trough will remain over the northwestern CONUS through
the day on Monday, and a shortwave trough will dig across the
northern Rockies and Great Basin. This will result in breezy
conditions across portions of the Great Basin and the Southwestern
CONUS with low RH in place and dry fuels.
...Southwest, Great Basin, and central Rockies...
Strong vertical mixing during the afternoon with modest flow aloft
is expected to result in winds of 20-30 mph along with RH near 5-15%
for several hours across this region. Continued poor RH recovery
overnight will contribute to dry fuels. Therefore, a Critical area
is introduced across the area. Surrounding this is an Elevated area,
where winds are generally expected to be near 15-20 mph with 5-15%
RH and receptive fuels.
...Central High Plains...
Upslope flow may provide the lift for convective development Monday
afternoon in the presence of a relatively dry boundary layer.
Precipitable water and storm motions may be a bit marginal, but it
appears a mix of wet and dry thunderstorm activity may occur, which
warrants an Isolated Dry Thunder area.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0501 PM CDT Sun Jun 07 2026
Valid 091200Z - 151200Z
...Synopsis...
An upper-level trough over the northwestern CONUS on Day 3/Tuesday
translates eastward towards the Great Lakes by Friday. Dry westerly
flow will gradually subside as the week progresses as the trough
pushes eastward, with a similarly declining scale of fire weather
concerns across the Intermountain West and Southwest. At the
surface, an advancing cold front will bring some relief to the
Interior West midweek, but a dry, post-frontal environment could
present a fire weather threat to Sacramento and Central Valleys in
CA on Day 4/Wednesday. A resurgence in subtropical moisture could
emerge late next week across the Southwest as southerly flow east of
a diffuse upper low in the Pacific, aids in northward moisture
transport of moisture from Baja CA.
...Day 3-6/Tuesday-Friday - Intermountain West and Southwest...
The upper trough over the Northwest and associated stronger
mid-level flow should support higher surface southwesterly wind
gusts within a dry, well mixed boundary layer on Day 3/Tuesday
across much portions of the Southwest, Four Corners, northeastward
into the central High Plains. Southwest winds of 15-20 mph with
higher gusts along with sub 10% RH values are most likely across
northern AZ/southern UT eastward into the Four Corners areas where
70% probabilities for Critical fire weather conditions remain. As
the upper trough slides into the Northern Plains by Day 4/Wednesday,
a 60-70 knot mid-level jet atop dry post-frontal environment will
continue to promote strong surface winds of up to 40 mph across
southern WY where 40% critical probabilities have been extended.
Fire weather concerns remain but shrink for the Four Corners and
adjacent areas for Days 5-6/Thursday-Friday in the wake of the
departing upper trough. Reintroduction of mid/upper level Pacific
moisture from an upper low southwest of CA could bring a dry
thunderstorm threat back into the Southwest as early as Friday.
However, low predictability precludes introduction of dry
thunderstorm probabilities at this time.
...Day 4/Wednesday - Sacramento alley...
Dry northerly flow behind a cold front across northern CA will
present a fire weather concern for portions and the Sacramento
Valley and adjacent foothills where receptive fuels support fire
spread. Sustained north winds of 10-20 mph and relative humidity
likely 15% or below Wednesday afternoon prompted introduction of 40%
critical probabilities for the area. The fuelscape remains complex,
with primarily cured/dry grasses supporting fire spread in lower
elevations.
..Williams.. 06/07/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
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