RSS Mesoscale Discussions from Storm Prediction Center
WW 46 SEVERE TSTM AL TN 111820Z - 120100Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 46
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
120 PM CDT Wed Mar 11 2026
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of
Northern Alabama
Middle Tennessee
* Effective this Wednesday afternoon and evening from 120 PM
until 800 PM CDT.
* Primary threats include...
Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible
Isolated large hail events to 1 inch in diameter possible
A tornado or two possible
SUMMARY...A broken line of thunderstorms should pose a threat for
mainly severe/damaging winds up to 60-70 mph as it spreads eastward
this afternoon and evening. An embedded tornado or two and isolated
hail may also occur.
The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 60
statute miles east and west of a line from 45 miles northeast of
Nashville TN to 30 miles south of Muscle Shoals AL. For a complete
depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update
(WOUS64 KWNS WOU6).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.
&&
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 42...WW 43...WW 44...WW
45...
AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
1 inch. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few
cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 450. Mean storm motion vector
24040.
...Gleason
Read more
WW 45 TORNADO MD PA VA WV 111745Z - 120000Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Tornado Watch Number 45
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
145 PM EDT Wed Mar 11 2026
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Tornado Watch for portions of
Western Maryland
Western and Central Pennsylvania
Far Northern Virginia
The Eastern West Virginia Panhandle
* Effective this Wednesday afternoon and evening from 145 PM
until 800 PM EDT.
* Primary threats include...
A couple tornadoes possible
Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible
Scattered large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible
SUMMARY...An increasing severe threat should exist this afternoon
and evening as thunderstorms move quickly east-northeastward.
Occasional hail and damaging winds may occur with any supercells,
along with a couple of tornadoes. If thunderstorms can form into a
bowing line/cluster, then a greater risk for severe/damaging winds
would be realized.
The tornado watch area is approximately along and 45 statute miles
north and south of a line from 35 miles south southwest of
Pittsburgh PA to 10 miles north of Hagerstown MD. For a complete
depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update
(WOUS64 KWNS WOU5).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for
tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch
area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for
threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements
and possible warnings.
&&
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 42...WW 43...WW 44...
AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail
surface and aloft to 1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind
gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 400. Mean
storm motion vector 26045.
...Gleason
Read more
WW 44 TORNADO LA TX CW 111625Z - 112300Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Tornado Watch Number 44
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1125 AM CDT Wed Mar 11 2026
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Tornado Watch for portions of
Western, Central, and Northern Louisiana
East and Southeast Texas
Coastal Waters
* Effective this Wednesday morning and evening from 1125 AM until
600 PM CDT.
* Primary threats include...
A few tornadoes and a couple intense tornadoes possible
Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely
Isolated large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible
SUMMARY...Thunderstorms are expected to increase in coverage and
intensity through the afternoon and into the early evening while
posing a threat for a few tornadoes and scattered damaging winds.
Peak gusts may reach up to 60-70 mph with bowing line segments. A
strong tornado is possible if supercells develop ahead of the line
this afternoon.
The tornado watch area is approximately along and 60 statute miles
north and south of a line from 60 miles west northwest of Houston TX
to 15 miles northeast of Alexandria LA. For a complete depiction of
the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS
WOU4).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for
tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch
area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for
threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements
and possible warnings.
&&
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 42...WW 43...
AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail
surface and aloft to 1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind
gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean
storm motion vector 24035.
...Gleason
Read more
WW 43 TORNADO IN KY OH 111600Z - 112200Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Tornado Watch Number 43
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1200 PM EDT Wed Mar 11 2026
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Tornado Watch for portions of
Southern Indiana
Northern Kentucky
Southern Ohio
* Effective this Wednesday afternoon and evening from NOON until
600 PM EDT.
* Primary threats include...
A couple tornadoes possible
Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible
Isolated large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible
SUMMARY...Developing thunderstorms may pose some threat for a couple
of tornadoes and damaging winds as they move quickly eastward
through the afternoon. Isolated hail may also occur if a supercell
can develop and be sustained.
The tornado watch area is approximately along and 25 statute miles
north and south of a line from 30 miles west of Louisville KY to 170
miles east northeast of Louisville KY. For a complete depiction of
the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS
WOU3).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for
tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch
area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for
threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements
and possible warnings.
&&
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 41...WW 42...
AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail
surface and aloft to 1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind
gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 400. Mean
storm motion vector 26045.
...Gleason
Read more
WW 42 TORNADO KY OH WV LE 111435Z - 112100Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Tornado Watch Number 42
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1035 AM EDT Wed Mar 11 2026
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Tornado Watch for portions of
Far Northeast Kentucky
Central and Eastern Ohio
Western and Central West Virginia
Lake Erie
* Effective this Wednesday morning and afternoon from 1035 AM
until 500 PM EDT.
* Primary threats include...
A couple tornadoes possible
Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely
Isolated large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible
SUMMARY...Multiple rounds of thunderstorms should pose a threat for
both scattered severe/damaging winds and a couple of tornadoes
through the morning and continuing into the afternoon. Peak gusts
may reach up to 60-70 mph, and some hail threat may exist if
supercells can form and be sustained.
The tornado watch area is approximately along and 115 statute miles
north and south of a line from 45 miles west of Zanesville OH to 15
miles south southeast of Wheeling WV. For a complete depiction of
the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS
WOU2).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for
tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch
area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for
threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements
and possible warnings.
&&
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 41...
AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail
surface and aloft to 1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind
gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 400. Mean
storm motion vector 26045.
...Gleason
Read more
WW 0046 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 46
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 NE TUP TO
40 S CKV TO 25 S BWG.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0220.
..GRAMS..03/11/26
ATTN...WFO...HUN...OHX...
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 46
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ALC033-059-077-079-083-089-103-112040-
AL
. ALABAMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
COLBERT FRANKLIN LAUDERDALE
LAWRENCE LIMESTONE MADISON
MORGAN
TNC003-015-027-031-035-037-041-049-051-055-061-081-087-099-101-
103-111-117-119-127-133-137-141-149-159-165-169-175-177-181-185-
187-189-112040-
TN
. TENNESSEE COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BEDFORD CANNON CLAY
COFFEE CUMBERLAND DAVIDSON
DE KALB FENTRESS FRANKLIN
GILES GRUNDY HICKMAN
JACKSON LAWRENCE LEWIS
LINCOLN MACON MARSHALL
Read more
WW 0045 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 45
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..CHALMERS..03/11/26
ATTN...WFO...LWX...PBZ...CTP...
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 45
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
MDC001-023-043-112040-
MD
. MARYLAND COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ALLEGANY GARRETT WASHINGTON
PAC003-009-013-021-027-033-051-055-057-059-061-063-111-125-129-
112040-
PA
. PENNSYLVANIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ALLEGHENY BEDFORD BLAIR
CAMBRIA CENTRE CLEARFIELD
FAYETTE FRANKLIN FULTON
GREENE HUNTINGDON INDIANA
SOMERSET WASHINGTON WESTMORELAND
VAC043-069-171-187-840-112040-
VA
. VIRGINIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
Read more
WW 0044 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 44
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 N PSX TO
40 ESE UTS TO 15 WNW LFK.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0219.
..GRAMS..03/11/26
ATTN...WFO...LCH...SHV...HGX...
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 44
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
LAC003-009-011-019-021-023-031-039-043-049-053-059-069-073-079-
081-085-115-127-112040-
LA
. LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE
ALLEN AVOYELLES BEAUREGARD
CALCASIEU CALDWELL CAMERON
DE SOTO EVANGELINE GRANT
JACKSON JEFFERSON DAVIS LA SALLE
NATCHITOCHES OUACHITA RAPIDES
RED RIVER SABINE VERNON
WINN
TXC005-039-071-157-167-199-201-241-245-291-347-351-361-373-403-
405-419-457-481-112040-
TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ANGELINA BRAZORIA CHAMBERS
FORT BEND GALVESTON HARDIN
Read more
WW 0043 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 43
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0218
..CHALMERS..03/11/26
ATTN...WFO...LMK...ILN...JKL...
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 43
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
INC019-025-043-061-077-115-117-123-143-155-175-111940-
IN
. INDIANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CLARK CRAWFORD FLOYD
HARRISON JEFFERSON OHIO
ORANGE PERRY SCOTT
SWITZERLAND WASHINGTON
KYC011-015-017-023-029-037-041-063-069-073-077-081-097-103-111-
117-135-161-163-181-185-187-191-201-205-209-211-215-223-
111940-
KY
. KENTUCKY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BATH BOONE BOURBON
BRACKEN BULLITT CAMPBELL
CARROLL ELLIOTT FLEMING
FRANKLIN GALLATIN GRANT
HARRISON HENRY JEFFERSON
KENTON LEWIS MASON
Read more
WW 0042 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 42
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 SSW CMH
TO 10 NNW ZZV TO 25 NW HLG TO 25 NNW PIT.
..CHALMERS..03/11/26
ATTN...WFO...RLX...CLE...PBZ...
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 42
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
KYC019-043-089-127-112040-
KY
. KENTUCKY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BOYD CARTER GREENUP
LAWRENCE
OHC009-013-053-059-067-079-081-087-105-111-115-119-121-127-163-
167-112040-
OH
. OHIO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ATHENS BELMONT GALLIA
GUERNSEY HARRISON JACKSON
JEFFERSON LAWRENCE MEIGS
MONROE MORGAN MUSKINGUM
NOBLE PERRY VINTON
WASHINGTON
WVC001-007-009-011-013-015-017-021-029-033-035-039-041-043-051-
053-069-073-079-083-085-087-091-095-097-099-103-105-107-
Read more
MD 0220 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 46... FOR MIDDLE TN AND FAR NORTHERN AL
Mesoscale Discussion 0220
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0222 PM CDT Wed Mar 11 2026
Areas affected...middle TN and far northern AL
Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 46...
Valid 111922Z - 112115Z
The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 46
continues.
SUMMARY...Mixed damaging wind/marginal severe hail threats should
persist through late afternoon across mainly middle Tennessee into
far northern Alabama.
DISCUSSION...A couple of embedded supercells within a broken QLCS
have yielded marginal severe hail and downed tree reports thus far.
The boundary layer remains warm ahead of this activity, with surface
temps mainly in the upper 70s to lower 80s. This will sustain a
mixed damaging wind/severe hail threat over the next 2-3 hours. 18Z
BNA sounding and recent VWP data confirm a nearly unidirectional
southwesterly low-level wind profile with modest speed shear. This
could support a brief tornado or two, but should largely remain a
secondary hazard. Convection bubbling on the trailing portion of the
outflow along the MS/AL border could yield an uptick in severe
potential across far northern AL.
..Grams/Gleason.. 03/11/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...MRX...JKL...LMK...OHX...HUN...
LAT...LON 36518653 36748584 36778499 36698461 36348453 35708483
34918612 34488696 34558812 34938801 35428761 35858737
36138686 36518653
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN
Read more
MD 0219 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 44... FOR SOUTHEAST TX TO THE LOWER MS VALLEY
Mesoscale Discussion 0219
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0156 PM CDT Wed Mar 11 2026
Areas affected...southeast TX to the Lower MS Valley
Concerning...Tornado Watch 44...
Valid 111856Z - 112100Z
The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 44 continues.
SUMMARY...Primary corridor of severe potential into late afternoon
should be across a portion of southeast Texas to the
Louisiana/Mississippi border vicinity of the Lower Mississippi
Valley. Sporadic damaging winds and a couple tornadoes may yet
occur.
DISCUSSION...The forward speed of a QLCS across east TX has been
modest thus far, with a paucity of measured wind gusts approaching
severe magnitudes. The downstream boundary layer remains warm with
low to mid 80s surface temperatures common. But as observed by the
18Z LCH sounding, weak mid-level lapse rates have hampered updraft
intensity, as well as sustained discrete development ahead of the
large-scale outflow. The continued eastward progression of the
central TX shortwave trough should support intensification of the
QLCS into the late afternoon. Low-level shear will generally remain
strong just ahead of the QLCS, mainly across the coastal plain near
the Lower Sabine Valley, with weaker values farther inland and east
per VWP data/short-term forecast guidance. The compact nature of the
cold core near the trough may continue to hamper more robust storm
intensities, even with approach of peak boundary-layer
heating/depth.
..Grams/Gleason.. 03/11/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...JAN...LIX...LCH...SHV...HGX...
LAT...LON 31109505 31319444 31829345 32219267 32509184 32629119
32569087 32229066 31849079 31089155 30569254 30319345
30189415 30109457 30079491 30339507 31109505
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN
Read more
MD 0216 CONCERNING WINTER MIXED PRECIPITATION FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL/NORTHERN MAINE
Mesoscale Discussion 0216
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1140 AM CDT Wed Mar 11 2026
Areas affected...portions of central/northern Maine
Concerning...Winter mixed precipitation
Valid 111640Z - 112245Z
SUMMARY...Precipitation will expand across portions of
central/northern Maine through the afternoon/evening today with an
accompanying increase in rates ahead of an approaching upper-level
trough. Mixed precipitation is likely, with a gradual transition
from snow/sleet to freezing rain expected through this evening.
DISCUSSION...A surface cyclone is forecast to progress northeastward
from Lower Michigan into southeastern Canada today, with an
attendant warm front lifting northward across southern New England.
Increasing isentropic ascent to the north of this frontal boundary
coupled with favorable upper-level jet dynamics and a low-level
frontogenetic zone are expected to support an increase in
precipitation rates through this afternoon. Per the 12Z CAR
sounding, atmospheric profiles are below freezing across much of
northern Maine, but RAP forecast soundings indicate that a 850-700
mb warm nose is beginning to build across central Maine. With
surface temperatures ranging from the low-20s to low-30s F across
the region, this is supporting snow/sleet as the initial
precipitation types. With strong 850 mb warm air advection beginning
to spread northward, the warm nose will gradually build throughout
the afternoon, leading to a northward expansion of sleet and an
eventual transition to freezing rain for much of central/northern
Maine. The best chances for freezing rain rates to exceed 0.06
inches per 3 hours through the afternoon is expected to span from
the northern Kennebec Valley into the Central Highlands.
A further increase in winter precipitation rates is then anticipated
this evening into tonight as increasing DCVA downstream of an
upper-level shortwave trough overspreads the region amidst the
continuing strong, low-level warm air advection regime.
..Chalmers.. 03/11/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...CAR...GYX...
LAT...LON 47526844 47386796 47106766 46626752 46456748 46116741
45856739 45586753 45366792 45176849 45076909 45006989
45057034 45187066 45447082 45657081 46127051 46767011
47246968 47436943 47576909 47526844
Read more
SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1131 AM CDT Wed Mar 11 2026
Valid 111630Z - 121200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON
INTO TONIGHT FROM THE OHIO VALLEY AND CENTRAL APPALACHIANS TO THE
GULF COAST...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms are expected through
tonight from the ArkLaTex and Lower Mississippi Valley northeastward
through the Ohio Valley and Mid-Atlantic.
...OH Valley/Appalachians through late evening...
A surface cyclone now in southeast Lower MI will move northeastward
across the lower Great Lakes/Saint Lawrence Valley and deepen, in
advance of an amplifying northern-stream shortwave trough now over
the upper MS Valley. The warm sector of the cyclone is
characterized by boundary-layer dewpoints in the low-mid 60s into
OH/western PA/WV as of midday. Clouds/convection have been
prevalent this morning across OH/western PA in advance of a subtle
MCV, and the warmer surface temperatures have been confined to areas
immediately south of this morning convection. Additional
thunderstorm development is expected by early afternoon from
southern IN/northern KY into southern OH/WV/western PA, and storms
will spread generally eastward within the warm sector through this
evening. SBCAPE of 1000-1500 J/kg and wind profiles with long
low-level hodographs will support of a mix of line segments and
supercells capable of producing a few tornadoes and swaths of
damaging gusts before the threat begins to diminish by late evening.
...Southeast TX to MS/AL through tonight...
Thunderstorms are ongoing along a surface trough approaching
southeast TX, and additional convection extends northeastward along
a residual outflow/differential heating zone into the Ark-La-Miss.
Daytime heating/destabilization and forcing for ascent downstream
from a midlevel trough (now over the Edwards Plateau) will support a
continued increase in storm coverage/intensity this afternoon from
southeast TX into the Ark-La-Miss. Though regional soundings are
limited in the main part of the moist sector this morning, surface
observations and model forecast soundings suggest a corridor of
moderate buoyancy (MLCAPE near 1500 J/kg) through the afternoon in
advance of the ongoing storms. Deep-layer southwesterly shear,
largely oriented along the convective band, will help maintain
clusters and line segments, though embedded supercells are also
possible. Low-level hodographs will be long enough to justify the
potential for a few tornadoes with embedded circulations and/or
favorable storm mergers into the band of storms. Otherwise, wind
damage will be the main threat with the line segments through
tonight.
..Thompson/Chalmers.. 03/11/2026
Read more
SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0258 PM CDT Wed Mar 11 2026
Valid 112000Z - 121200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TONIGHT
FROM THE GULF COAST TO PARTS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms are expected through
tonight from the Gulf coast into parts of the Mid-Atlantic.
...20z update...
Storm coverage has been a bit more limited compared to earlier
expectations for the OH Valley into the Appalachians, though widely
scattered storms persist in an environment with relatively straight
hodographs and weak-moderate buoyancy. Some tornado/wind threat
persists with perhaps a locally greater threat for a couple of
tornadoes in PA where storms interact with a diffuse north-south
baroclinic zone.
Otherwise, storm clusters/line segments are more concentrated across
middle TN and extreme southeast TX. The TN storms will pose mainly
a wind/marginal hail threat for the next few hours, while the
southeast TX storms will spread eastward with some uptick in the
wind/tornado threat overnight as the upstream midlevel trough begins
to accelerate eastward. A separate/small area with some wind/hail
threat will be associated with the midlevel cold core later this
afternoon across interior southeast TX.
..Thompson.. 03/11/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1131 AM CDT Wed Mar 11 2026/
...OH Valley/Appalachians through late evening...
A surface cyclone now in southeast Lower MI will move northeastward
across the lower Great Lakes/Saint Lawrence Valley and deepen, in
advance of an amplifying northern-stream shortwave trough now over
the upper MS Valley. The warm sector of the cyclone is
characterized by boundary-layer dewpoints in the low-mid 60s into
OH/western PA/WV as of midday. Clouds/convection have been
prevalent this morning across OH/western PA in advance of a subtle
MCV, and the warmer surface temperatures have been confined to areas
immediately south of this morning convection. Additional
thunderstorm development is expected by early afternoon from
southern IN/northern KY into southern OH/WV/western PA, and storms
will spread generally eastward within the warm sector through this
evening. SBCAPE of 1000-1500 J/kg and wind profiles with long
low-level hodographs will support of a mix of line segments and
supercells capable of producing a few tornadoes and swaths of
damaging gusts before the threat begins to diminish by late evening.
...Southeast TX to MS/AL through tonight...
Thunderstorms are ongoing along a surface trough approaching
southeast TX, and additional convection extends northeastward along
a residual outflow/differential heating zone into the Ark-La-Miss.
Daytime heating/destabilization and forcing for ascent downstream
from a midlevel trough (now over the Edwards Plateau) will support a
continued increase in storm coverage/intensity this afternoon from
southeast TX into the Ark-La-Miss. Though regional soundings are
limited in the main part of the moist sector this morning, surface
observations and model forecast soundings suggest a corridor of
moderate buoyancy (MLCAPE near 1500 J/kg) through the afternoon in
advance of the ongoing storms. Deep-layer southwesterly shear,
largely oriented along the convective band, will help maintain
clusters and line segments, though embedded supercells are also
possible. Low-level hodographs will be long enough to justify the
potential for a few tornadoes with embedded circulations and/or
favorable storm mergers into the band of storms. Otherwise, wind
damage will be the main threat with the line segments through
tonight.
Read more
SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1222 PM CDT Wed Mar 11 2026
Valid 121200Z - 131200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE INTO CENTRAL GEORGIA AND THE CAROLINAS...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may produce damaging winds
across parts of the Southeast on Thursday morning into the
afternoon.
...Synopsis...
A strong synoptic cold front is evident in latest surface
observations pushing east/southeast across the OH Valley and lower
MS Valley. Thunderstorm development will become increasingly focused
along the front across the lower MS Valley and Southeast
today/tonight, and will likely be still ongoing by 12 UTC Thursday.
Thunderstorm potential will become increasingly confined to the FL
peninsula by the evening hours as the front moves off shore.
...Florida Panhandle into central Georgia...
Strong (40-50 knot) deep-layer wind shear will likely be in place
across far southeast AL into southwest GA and the FL Panhandle at
the start of the forecast period. While buoyancy will be marginal, a
few isolated strong to severe thunderstorms appear possible within a
convective band based on latest HREF/REFS ensemble output. A steady
weakening trend is expected through the day as the band drifts into
an environment with poor lapse rates over the FL peninsula/southeast
GA, but a few instances of damaging winds appear possible during the
12-16 UTC period.
...Carolinas...
Heating ahead of the approaching cold front will likely support
SBCAPE values of around 500 J/kg across the central to coastal
Carolinas by mid-afternoon. Meager buoyancy/lapse rates will
generally modulate convective intensity as thunderstorms develop
along the front. However, 40-50 knot flow near the top of the
boundary layer and around 40 knots of 0-3 km BWD may support loosely
organized cells/clusters capable of sporadic damaging wind gusts
before the front pushes off the coast.
...Northern Plains...
Sporadic lightning flashes appear likely during the late afternoon
hours amid low-level heating under a pocket of cold temperatures
aloft associated with a robust clipper low. Strengthening winds
within the lowest 0.5-1 km may support very localized stronger
gusts, but confidence in a more robust severe threat remains
limited.
..Moore.. 03/11/2026
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SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0217 PM CDT Wed Mar 11 2026
Valid 131200Z - 141200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Friday.
...Synopsis...
A cold front currently pushing across the Ohio Valley and lower MS
Valley will migrate off the East Coast and down the FL peninsula
through Thursday before stalling over southern FL early Friday
morning. A dry/cool air mass overspreading much of the CONUS in the
wake of this front will mitigate thunderstorm potential for most
areas aside from the southern FL peninsula. Although lapse rates
will be very marginal, rich low-level moisture coupled with
negligible capping should yield a thermodynamic environment
supportive of deep convection. 20-30 knot flow above 6 km may
support some degree of storm organization, but very weak low-level
winds/convergence should generally limit storm coverage and modulate
overall convective intensity.
..Moore.. 03/11/2026
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SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1105 AM CDT Wed Mar 11 2026
Valid 111700Z - 121200Z
The Elevated area over the central High Plains has been trimmed on
the western/northern flanks to account for recent wetting rains and
lingering snow cover noted in satellite imagery and surface
observations. Conversely, the area was expanded slightly eastward to
align with latest forecast guidance showing a more aggressive push
of the dry air mass. Farther south and east, recent precipitation
along the boundary provides a sufficient fuel-moisture buffer to
preclude further expansion.
Otherwise, remaining portions of the central and southern High
Plains and the Elevated area over south Texas remain on track with
the latest forecast guidance. A large fire emerged northwest of
Amarillo yesterday afternoon with growth only exacerbated by the
wind switch associated with the cold front's passage overnight.
While northerly winds will remain stout today, the post-frontal air
mass is cool enough that RH values are forecast to stay above
critical thresholds (20%+), preventing any upgrade at this time.
However, the combination of high wind speeds and cured fuels
warrants continued vigilance near active incidents.
Pre-frontal warming and tightening pressure gradients may produce
locally elevated conditions across the Carolinas. However, current
observations and forecast guidance suggest wind/RH will remain
marginally below any criteria.
..Stearns/Nauslar.. 03/11/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0114 AM CDT Wed Mar 11 2026/
...Synopsis...
Upper-level troughing will translate eastward into the
Upper-Midwest/Lower Mississippi River Valley through Wednesday as
deep surface low pressure area moves into the eastern Great Lakes
region, while a ridge begins to build across the West. Strong
north-northwest winds behind a cold front will usher in a drier air
mass, raising fire weather concerns across portions of the central
and southern Plains Wednesday.
...Central and Southern Plains...
Dry, post-frontal flow will encompass much of the central and
southern Plains on Wednesday. Clearing skies will support a
well-mixed, but shallower boundary layer by late afternoon along
with enhanced downslope drying under increasing northwest flow aloft
across southeastern WY, far northeastern CO and the NE Panhandle.
However, expected precipitation, some in the form of snow, in
addition to much cooler temperatures could limit an otherwise
near-critical fire weather concern where northwest winds of 15-25
mph are anticipated across this area. Sufficient widespread RH
reductions below 20 percent during peak insolation continues to be a
limiting factor in a more substantial fire weather risk across
western KS and OK/TX Panhandles, with broad Elevated Highlights
maintained where northerly winds of 20-30 mph and dry fuels align.
Locally critical fire weather conditions are possible across far
northwest TX/Rolling Plains area where afternoon RH briefly falls to
around 15 percent amid breezy north winds of up to 30 mph.
...Far South Texas...
Elevated Highlights were added to portions of far southern TX for
Wednesday. Dry west-northwest flow supported by an exiting short
wave trough and eastward shunting of deeper Gulf moisture will
impact far southern TX Wednesday. Ongoing convection across central
TX is expected to diminish through Wednesday morning, limiting
precipitation across far southern TX. West-northwest winds of 10-20
mph behind an eastward mixing dry line, along with minimum daytime
RH of around 15% should support Elevated fire weather conditions in
dry fuels where minimal rainfall has occurred over the last several
days.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
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SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0232 PM CDT Wed Mar 11 2026
Valid 121200Z - 131200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
PLAINS...
The northern extents of both the Critical and Elevated risk areas
have been shifted southward to account for recent precipitation and
the latest model guidance. Conversely, the risk areas have been
expanded eastward as guidance trends more progressive with the dry
air mass currently blanketing the central and southern Plains. The
new Critical area now encompasses both previous Critical areas with
additional portions of the southern/central Plains also now
included. While the synoptic pattern provides multiple forcing
mechanisms across this broad region, localized areas, particularly
in extreme eastern Colorado, may see transient periods where wind
and RH thresholds are not perfectly coincident.
Across extreme south Texas, the timing of lowest RHs and strongest
winds appear out of sync according to latest forecast guidance.
Thus, this area doesn't meet elevated combined wind and RH
thresholds. Across northern Georgia and the western Carolinas,
post-frontal winds will combine with slightly drier air to bring
localized elevated wind and RH conditions to the region. However,
recent rainfall is a mitigating factor likely keeping forecast
guidance from dropping RHs any lower. Both of these areas will be
monitored as future forecast guidance becomes available.
..Stearns/Nauslar.. 03/11/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0147 AM CDT Wed Mar 11 2026/
...Synopsis...
A robust mid-level jet at the apex of a building ridge across the
West along with strong surface low pressure feature moving into the
Northern Plains will impart an expansive west-northwest wind field
across the northern and central High Plains D2/Thursday. Lee trough
development extending southward from the parent low over the
central/southern High Plains will support a rapid transition to a
dry return flow across the central and southern Plains, promoting
Elevated to Critical fire weather conditions across the region.
...Central Plains...
Deep layer west-northwest flow and evolution of a well-mixed
boundary layer by peak heating will support strong west-northwest
winds of 25-35 mph across much of eastern WY into the northern High
Plains. Although strong winds are likely, surface RH reductions of
20-30 percent and cloud cover should reduce a more extreme fire
weather environment. Nonetheless, Critical fire weather conditions
where the strong winds, RH close to 20 percent and dry fuels align.
...Southern Plains...
A warmer and drier air mass aided by a downslope regime will evolve
across the southern Plains Thursday. A tightening surface pressure
gradient associated with lee trough expansion will promote broad
west-southwest winds of 15-20 across much of the region. Model
guidance continues to depict a stronger corridor of 20-25 mph winds
from eastern NM into the TX Panhandle by D2/Thursday afternoon
aligning with RH as low as 15 percent by peak boundary layer
heating. Critical fire weather conditions are expected across
eastern NM, TX Panhandle and far western OK.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
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