RSS Mesoscale Discussions from Storm Prediction Center
No watches are valid as of Thu Apr 30 21:25:02 UTC 2026.
MD 0629 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR TEXAS BIG BEND INTO CONCHO VALLEY AND EDWARDS PLATEAU
Mesoscale Discussion 0629
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0347 PM CDT Thu Apr 30 2026
Areas affected...Texas Big Bend into Concho Valley and Edwards
Plateau
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 302047Z - 302245Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent
SUMMARY...Isolated occurrences of large hail are possible this
afternoon into early evening. A WW is not currently expected.
DISCUSSION...A small area of elevated thunderstorms is ongoing as of
2040z in the vicinity of Junction, TX, with potentially more
surface-based storm development occurring farther to the west along
the higher terrain in the vicinity of Marathon, TX. Latest objective
analysis suggests these storms are occurring in a modestly unstable
air mass, characterized by MUCAPE of 1000-1500 J/kg. Ambient wind
shear through a deep layer remains strong (e.g., effective bulk
shear magnitudes of 55-65 kt), so the potential exists for supercell
structures capable of large hail.
The current expectation is that any hail threat will remain isolated
and somewhat marginal in intensity into early evening. As such a
Severe Thunderstorm Watch isn't expected at this time.
Storm coverage and intensity may tend to increase later this evening
into tonight with the arrival of stronger forcing for ascent
attendant to a low-latitude short-wave trough moving through
northwest Mexico. Comparably greater potential for a watch will
exist at that time.
..Mead/Smith.. 04/30/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...EWX...SJT...MAF...
LAT...LON 30170316 30740284 31010033 30789863 30169856 29639905
29489991 29350047 29540093 29850136 29890264 29950298
30170316
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN
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SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0250 PM CDT Thu Apr 30 2026
Valid 302000Z - 011200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF TEXAS AND LOUISIANA...
...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms with isolated large hail and gusty winds will be
possible mainly this evening and tonight across parts of
southwest/south-central Texas towards the middle Texas Coast, and
this afternoon across coastal/southern Louisiana.
...20Z Update...
The previous forecast (see below) remains on track, with only slight
changes made to ongoing probabilities to account for the latest
guidance consensus.
..Squitieri.. 04/30/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1057 AM CDT Thu Apr 30 2026/
...Texas...
A mid- to upper-level trough west of northern Baja California late
this morning is forecast to quickly move east reaching Chihuahua and
southwest TX by daybreak Friday. Strong westerly mid to high-level
flow will be maintained across the southern tier of states. Surface
analysis showed a west-east oriented stalled front across south TX
eastward across coastal LA and into north FL. Widespread cloud
cover will limit diurnal heating today north of the boundary despite
a fetch of steeper 700-500 mb lapse rates being maintained across
northern Mexico and over TX in the vicinity of the Rio Grande. A
couple of stronger thunderstorms are possible through the early
afternoon from central into parts of southeast TX (reference MCD
#627 for short-term details). Farther west, ascent preceding the
shortwave trough will promote scattered showers and storms
developing over southwest TX late this evening with additional
activity (numerous in coverage) forecast to develop/spread east
towards the middle TX Coast through early Friday morning. Sufficient
MUCAPE and strong cloud-layer shear will support an isolated threat
for severe hail with any elevated supercells that can develop.
Strong to locally severe gusts may also occur as supercells
encounter greater instability across south-central to coastal TX
late tonight, even if they remain slightly elevated.
...Coastal/Southern Louisiana...
A convectively reinforced surface front is draped across
southern/coastal LA this morning, with thunderstorms ongoing to its
north. Greater instability will exist to the south of the front
across coastal LA this afternoon. Thunderstorms that develop/move
across the front later today could pose some risk for locally
damaging winds and marginally severe hail given weak to moderate
instability and strong deep-layer shear.
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SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1209 PM CDT Thu Apr 30 2026
Valid 011200Z - 021200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PARTS OF SOUTH
TEXAS INTO THE MIDDLE TEXAS COAST AND PORTIONS OF THE
CENTRAL/EASTERN GULF COAST...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe thunderstorm development is possible across parts of
South Texas and middle Texas coastal areas, parts of southeastern
Louisiana, and the western Florida Panhandle Friday afternoon
through Friday night.
...Synopsis...
Broad cyclonic flow aloft will persist across much of the U.S. east
of the Continental Divide on Friday. A shortwave trough will dig
through the central Plains into the Southeast through the period.
Within the subtropical jet, another shortwave trough will begin the
day in the Trans-Pecos and move eastward roughly along the Gulf
Coast. These two features will eventually phase by late afternoon
into the evening. The mid-level jet will increase in intensity in
response. At the surface, a stalled boundary will be positioned from
South Texas and eastward along the Gulf Coast. As the southern
stream trough progresses east, a weak frontal low will develop and
perhaps allow some inland advancement of upper 60s/low 70s F
dewpoints.
...South Texas/Middle Texas Coast...
Rich moisture will exist south of the surface boundary. Southward
progression of the boundary will determine how much risk of
surface-based convection there will be. Given the amount of
precipitation north of the front, there may be a tendency for most
storms to be undercut except closer to the coast. With 60+ kts of
effective shear, supercells will be possible despite modest
buoyancy/mid-level lapse rates. Where storms can remain surface
based, damaging winds and perhaps a tornado would be possible. Large
hail could occur even with storms that become slightly elevated.
...Southeast Louisiana into Florida Panhandle...
Severe potential along the central/eastern Gulf coast hinges on the
degree of inland moisture advancement. The expectation is for
low-level warm advection to increase with time and eastward extent.
This would suggest slightly higher confidence of
near-surface/surface-based storms in parts of the Florida Panhandle
to the Apalachicola vicinity. A mix of linear and supercell
structures appears possible. Damaging winds and large hail may occur
with the strongest storms. The tornado threat is more conditional,
but nonzero. This threat would be maximized with any discrete storms
that develop and move inland.
..Wendt.. 04/30/2026
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SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0228 PM CDT Thu Apr 30 2026
Valid 021200Z - 031200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR SOUTHERN
GEORGIA INTO PORTIONS OF CENTRAL FLORIDA...
...SUMMARY...
Strong to marginally severe storms are possible in southern Georgia
into northern/central Florida.
...Synopsis...
A large upper trough across the eastern U.S. will continue to pivot
through the Southeast. A surface cold front will move southward into
the Florida Peninsula.
...Southern Georgia into Florida...
Rich low-level moisture (upper 60s to low 70s F dewpoints) is
expected to exist ahead of the southward-moving cold front.
Mid-level ascent will be strongest across southern Georgia and North
Florida, diminishing with southward extent. Strong flow within the
850-500 mb layer will help to organize convection. Areas that
receive greater surface heating could allow a few strong to severe
storms to develop during the late morning/afternoon. Deep-layer
shear will be strong, but will also be parallel to the front. At
least some activity may have a tendency to be undercut. Both
supercells and small clusters will be possible. Large hail and
damaging winds are the primary concerns. Low-level shear will be
greater in the morning and decrease with time as the low-level jet
moves northeast, leading to a more uncertain tornado threat.
..Wendt.. 04/30/2026
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SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0223 PM CDT Thu Apr 30 2026
Valid 011200Z - 021200Z
...Florida Peninsula...
Westerly flow south of a cold front over the northern Gulf Coast and
northern FL, will bring elevated fire weather concerns to the
central FL Peninsula Friday. Sufficient boundary layer mixing
despite the presence of a few clouds should support minimum RH of
30-35% (locally 25%) in most inland locations in central/eastern FL,
where temperatures reach into the lower 90s. West winds of around 10
mph combined with low RH and dry, receptive fuels (ERCs in the
90-97th percentiles) will generate elevated fire weather conditions,
where Elevated Highlights have been slightly expanded based on
latest forecast guidance.
..Williams.. 04/30/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1202 AM CDT Thu Apr 30 2026/
...Synopsis...
A ridge of high pressure will shift east over the Great Basin as a
closed low develops offshore the Pacific Northwest. An amplifying
upper trough across the Eastern Seaboard will dig southward and
amalgamate with a subtropical shortwave traversing the Gulf Coast
region, further enhancing westerly flow aloft for much of the
Southeast into the Mid-Atlantic. Widespread precipitation over the
southern Plains on Friday is expected to provide much needed relief
to an extensively dry fuelscape. Prolonged dry and breezy conditions
across the Florida Peninsula will continue fire weather concerns
where drought-stressed fuels exist.
...Central Florida...
Ahead of a stalled frontal boundary draped over northern FL, steady
westerly flow and a relatively dry airmass amid receptive fuels will
pose a fire weather threat on Friday afternoon for the FL Peninsula.
In response to increasing subtropical moisture aloft, high cloud
cover will build across the Peninsula throughout the afternoon.
However, some breaks in the clouds should allow for deeper mixing
into a dry boundary layer. Elevated highlights have been introduced
where RH values are expected to drop between 25-35 percent at peak
heating while westerly winds increase to 10 mph atop dry fuels.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
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SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0419 PM CDT Thu Apr 30 2026
Valid 021200Z - 081200Z
...Synopsis...
An amplifying upper trough across the eastern U.S. and deepening
surface low near the Carolina Coast will lead to dry and breezy
conditions south of a cold front, increasing the fire weather threat
across FL on Day 3/Saturday. The cold front and associated rainfall
will finally advance southeastward over the weekend, providing a
temporary fire weather reprieve not only to Florida but to much of
the Southeast and portions of the Mid Atlantic. A cold front
sweeping southeastward under broader northeasterly flow should bring
stronger west-northwest winds and low RH to portions of the northern
Plains on Day 3/Saturday. Dry and breezy conditions return to the
Southwest Day 4/Sunday and Southern High Plains Day
5-6/Monday-Tuesday as upper low gradually shifts into the region.
...Day 3/Saturday...
...Florida...
Stronger west winds of 15 mph (locally 20 mph) ahead of a cold front
advancing southeastward from the northern Gulf Coast will bring a
fire weather threat to the FL Peninsula on Day 3/Saturday. RH
reductions could be limited to 35% locally due to increasing cloud
cover but fuels remain very receptive amid expanding drought where
40% critical probabilities remain.
...Northern Plains...
A mid-level short wave will translate southeastward into the
Northern Plains from the southern Canadian Prairies on Day
3/Saturday. At the surface, a cold front extending southwestward
from a parent low across ND will sweep into the eastern MT and
Dakotas. Dry and breezy conditions ahead of the cold front combined
with dry fuels could allow for heightened fire weather concerns
across southwestern ND, northwestern SD and southeastern MT, where
recent rainfall has been minimal and fuels remain dry. 40% critical
probabilities were introduced to account for this fire weather
threat.
...Days 4-6/Sunday-Tuesday - Southwest and Southern Plains...
Increasing southwesterly flow aloft should overspread the Southwest
and Southern Plains as a lee surface trough develops across the
southern Plains early next week. This will support dry and breezy
conditions across the Southwest on Sunday, with downslope drying and
enhanced winds evolving in the Southern High Plains Monday and
Tuesday. However, preceding widespread rainfall in the tonight and
Day 2/Friday time frame in addition to ongoing green up across the
region should limit the impact of an otherwise enhanced fire weather
concern.
..Williams.. 04/30/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
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