RSS Mesoscale Discussions from Storm Prediction Center
WW 640 TORNADO LA MS 250440Z - 251200Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Tornado Watch Number 640
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1040 PM CST Mon Nov 24 2025
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Tornado Watch for portions of
Far Northeastern Louisiana
Western/Central Mississippi
* Effective this Monday night and Tuesday morning from 1040 PM
until 600 AM CST.
* Primary threats include...
A couple tornadoes possible
Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible
Isolated large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible
SUMMARY...A line of thunderstorms continues to move eastward across
northern LA towards western/southwestern MS. A strongly sheared and
modestly buoyant environment precedes this line from far
northeastern LA into western and central MS. These environmental
conditions support a risk for tornadoes and damaging gusts within
any stronger storms embedded within the broader convective line. A
few thunderstorms could also develop ahead of the line, with the
threat for a brief tornado and/or strong gusts accompanying these
storms as well.
The tornado watch area is approximately along and 40 statute miles
north and south of a line from 50 miles northwest of Natchez MS to
100 miles east northeast of Natchez MS. For a complete depiction of
the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS
WOU0).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for
tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch
area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for
threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements
and possible warnings.
&&
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 639...
AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail
surface and aloft to 1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind
gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean
storm motion vector 24035.
...Mosier
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WW 639 TORNADO LA TX CW 250035Z - 250700Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Tornado Watch Number 639
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
635 PM CST Mon Nov 24 2025
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Tornado Watch for portions of
Northern and Central Louisiana
East-central and Southeast Texas
Coastal Waters
* Effective this Monday night and Tuesday morning from 635 PM
until 100 AM CST.
* Primary threats include...
A couple tornadoes possible
Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible
Isolated large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible
SUMMARY...A line of thunderstorms currently extends from northwest
LA through southeast TX to the Middle TX Coastal Plain. Airmass
ahead of these storms remains moist and unstable, with some increase
in southerly low-level winds expected over the next few hours.
Resulting environmental conditions will support a continued risk for
supercells embedded within the line, as well as the potential for a
few discrete cells ahead of the line. There is enough low-level
shear present for a tornado risk to accompany these supercells, with
damaging gusts possible within the line as well.
The tornado watch area is approximately along and 65 statute miles
north and south of a line from 50 miles west of Houston TX to 50
miles east northeast of Natchitoches LA. For a complete depiction of
the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS
WOU9).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for
tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch
area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for
threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements
and possible warnings.
&&
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 638...
AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail
surface and aloft to 1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind
gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean
storm motion vector 24035.
...Mosier
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WW 0640 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 640
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..DEAN..11/25/25
ATTN...WFO...JAN...
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 640
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
LAC025-029-041-065-083-107-250740-
LA
. LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE
CATAHOULA CONCORDIA FRANKLIN
MADISON RICHLAND TENSAS
MSC001-021-029-037-049-063-065-077-085-089-121-127-149-250740-
MS
. MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ADAMS CLAIBORNE COPIAH
FRANKLIN HINDS JEFFERSON
JEFFERSON DAVIS LAWRENCE LINCOLN
MADISON RANKIN SIMPSON
WARREN
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
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WW 0639 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 639
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 ENE GLS
TO 45 SSE LFK TO 30 NW POE TO 20 ESE IER TO 40 N ESF.
..DEAN..11/25/25
ATTN...WFO...LCH...SHV...HGX...
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 639
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
LAC003-009-011-039-059-069-079-115-250740-
LA
. LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE
ALLEN AVOYELLES BEAUREGARD
EVANGELINE LA SALLE NATCHITOCHES
RAPIDES VERNON
TXC199-241-245-351-361-457-250740-
TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
HARDIN JASPER JEFFERSON
NEWTON ORANGE TYLER
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
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No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Tue Nov 25 07:12:18 UTC 2025.
SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1146 PM CST Mon Nov 24 2025
Valid 251200Z - 261200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SOUTHEAST
MISSISSIPPI INTO EAST-CENTRAL ALABAMA...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated to scattered severe storms are likely across parts of the
Southeast/Deep South this morning into the early evening hours. A
couple tornadoes are possible in parts of eastern Mississippi and
Alabama.
...Synopsis...
Late-evening water-vapor imagery depicts a weakening upper wave over
east TX/LA translating to the east/northeast with a more compact,
amplifying upper disturbance moving into the northern High Plains.
Further de-amplification of the southern wave is anticipated over
the next 24 hours as it lifts into the Appalachians/Mid-Atlantic. As
this occurs, a weak surface low (analyzed over the mid-MS Valley as
of 05 UTC) will gradually lift to the northeast with a trailing cold
front extending from the TN Valley to the Gulf Coast. Thunderstorm
development is anticipated by mid-afternoon along this boundary
across portions of eastern MS, AL, and into the southern
Appalachians. While buoyancy will remain somewhat modest, strong
wind shear over the region will support the potential for strong to
severe thunderstorms.
...Southeast...
Thunderstorms will likely be ongoing by 12 UTC across portions of
central MS and northwest AL as remnants from overnight convection
begin to weaken in tandem with the early-morning maximum in
inhibition. Some re-intensification of this activity is possible by
late morning across northeast MS/northern AL as diurnal heating
increases, but confidence in the coverage/intensity is uncertain.
30-40 knot south/southwesterly flow in the 1-2 km layer will
continue to advect seasonally warm/moist air northward into central
and northeast AL by mid-afternoon. This will allow for adequate
destabilization within the warm sector for thunderstorm development
as a weak cold front begins to advance from the west. The
combination of strong, along-boundary deep-layer wind shear and weak
forcing for ascent will favor a broken line of cells/clusters by
mid-afternoon. The strong low-level winds will support a damaging
wind threat with any strong thunderstorm, and favorable low-level
helicity (especially late morning through early afternoon) will
support a tornado threat with the more intense/isolated supercells.
Through late afternoon, low-level winds veering to the southwest may
modulate the tornado threat to some degree, but damaging winds and
isolated large hail will remain possible. In general, the overall
ensemble signal for intense convection is comparatively weaker
compared to previous days, suggesting that the severe threat may be
somewhat more limited. Nonetheless, Slight-risk probabilities were
maintained for portions of southeast MS through east-central AL
where strong/severe storms appear most likely.
..Moore/Jewell.. 11/25/2025
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SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1255 AM CST Tue Nov 25 2025
Valid 261200Z - 271200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Severe storms are not forecast on Wednesday or Wednesday night.
...Synopsis...
A strong mid-level trough will amplify across the Great Lakes on
Wednesday. A strong mid-level jet streak will move along the
southern extent of this trough from the Ohio Valley to the
Northeast. A surface low will move from Lake Superior to western
Quebec during the forecast period. An occluded front will extend
east from this surface low to a cold front which will start the day
near the Appalachians and move mostly into the western Atlantic by
00Z.
Some surface heating is forecast ahead of the cold front from
southeast Georgia to the Carolinas Wednesday morning and early
afternoon. While this will lead to some weak destabilization,
relatively warm 850-700mb temperatures should limit the overall
threat despite strong shear and long hodographs across the region.
..Bentley.. 11/25/2025
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SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0108 AM CST Tue Nov 25 2025
Valid 251200Z - 261200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
...Synopsis...
Fire weather concerns will remain limited for today across the
country despite very strong winds across much of the central Plains.
06 UTC surface observations show surface pressure falls across the
northern High Plains associated with a developing cyclone. This low
will undergo rapid intensification over the next 24 hours as it
shifts east towards the Midwest. Strong, 20-30 mph northwesterly
winds will overspread much of the central and southern Plains
through late afternoon as an attendant cold front pushes southeast.
Despite the strong winds, an influx of cold air will limit RH
reductions to 35-50% over the windiest areas. This, coupled with
unreceptive fuels after recent rainfall, will limit fire weather
potential.
..Moore.. 11/25/2025
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
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SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0109 AM CST Tue Nov 25 2025
Valid 261200Z - 271200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
...Synopsis...
No fire weather concerns are expected for Wednesday. A strong
cyclone that is currently developing over the northern High Plains
is expected to move into the Great Lakes region by late Wednesday.
This will support a broad swath of 15-25 mph across the Midwest and
OH Valley, but recent rainfall and cold temperatures will limit fire
concerns. Across southern California, a weak to moderate offshore
pressure gradient is expected to gradually become established
through Wednesday into early Thursday. While some areas may see
winds increase to 15-20 mph, widespread recent rainfall has largely
mitigated fuel concerns at this time.
..Moore.. 11/25/2025
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
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