RSS Mesoscale Discussions from Storm Prediction Center
No watches are valid as of Fri Jun 26 18:02:02 UTC 2026.
MD 1330 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR EASTERN KENTUCKY INTO WESTERN PARTS OF WEST VIRGINIA AND VIRGINIA
Mesoscale Discussion 1330
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1259 PM CDT Fri Jun 26 2026
Areas affected...eastern Kentucky into western parts of West
Virginia and Virginia
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 261759Z - 262000Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent
SUMMARY...The potential for a few damaging wind gusts is expected to
increase this evening. Limited areal coverage and magnitude of
threat are expected to preclude a watch issuance.
DISCUSSION...Ahead of a well-defined MCV, a line of showers and
thunderstorms has recently intensified in the vicinity of I-75, near
Richmond. Daytime heating within the downstream air mass is
contributing to destabilization with steep low-level lapse rates and
MLCAPE of around 1000 J/kg evident in latest objective analysis. As
such, expect the ongoing storms to further intensify while moving
through eastern KY, potentially into western parts of WV and VA this
afternoon. While relatively weak wind fields and resultant vertical
shear are expected to limit the potential for an organized cold pool
to evolve, locally damaging downburst winds appear possible given
the presence of the steep low-level lapse rates.
The anticipated areal coverage and magnitude of the damaging wind
threat are currently expected to remain too marginal for a watch
issuance.
..Mead/Guyer.. 06/26/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...RNK...RLX...MRX...JKL...LMK...
LAT...LON 37098463 37878421 38268324 38578205 38488130 37938109
37398153 37078184 36698270 36678408 37098463
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
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MD 1329 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEW ENGLAND
Mesoscale Discussion 1329
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1220 PM CDT Fri Jun 26 2026
Areas affected...northern and central New England
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible
Valid 261720Z - 261915Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent
SUMMARY...The threat for widely scattered severe storms capable of
large hail, damaging winds, and perhaps a brief tornado is expected
to increase this afternoon. Convective trends are being monitored
for a possible Severe Thunderstorm Watch.
DISCUSSION...Forcing for ascent attendant to a short-wave trough
moving along the St. Lawrence Valley coupled in conjunction with a
warming/ destabilizing, pre-frontal air mass is contributing to
deepening cumulus and early thunderstorm development over the
Adirondack Mountains as of 17z. Cloud breaks within the immediate
downstream air mass along and east of the Champlain Valley area
expected to aid in further air mass destabilization this afternoon
with MLCAPE increasing to 1000 J/kg along and south of a subtle warm
front/ differential heating zone lifting north through VT and NH.
Current expectations are for the ongoing storms to gradually
intensify while spreading east into the discussion area with
additional storm development possible along favored terrain and/or
the warm front. Mid/upper-level wind fields are forecast to
strengthen through the afternoon with an associated increase in
deep-layer shear. Forecast hodographs indicate a largely
unidirectional shear profile, suggesting the potential for splitting
supercells capable of marginally severe hail and locally damaging
wind gusts. While ambient low-level shear is expected to remain
modest, some brief tornado potential could materialize with any
supercell that can favorably interact with the warm front.
..Mead/Guyer.. 06/26/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...GYX...BOX...BTV...ALY...
LAT...LON 44207424 44817370 45017227 44877127 44397082 43737084
43057095 42547166 42587256 42987356 43487398 44207424
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN
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SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1147 AM CDT Fri Jun 26 2026
Valid 261630Z - 271200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE HIGH
PLAINS TO OZARKS AND LOWER OHIO VALLEY...AS WELL AS PARTS OF NEW
ENGLAND...
...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorm development is expected today,
particularly this afternoon into tonight across parts of the Ozark
Plateau to Lower Ohio Valley and across parts of the northern and
central High Plains to the Black Hills vicinity. Other severe storms
are expected across portions of New England.
...Ozarks and Lower Ohio Valley...
Multiple eastward-moving MCVs remain evident regionally in
observational data at midday, probably strongest across southeast
Missouri, but also the Oklahoma/Arkansas border vicinity and
northern Kentucky. A related observed enhancement to the
low/mid-level flow will persists from the Ozarks/Bootheel
east-northeastward parallel to the Ohio River, but cloud
cover/scattered precipitation remains fairly prevalent regionally as
well. Peripheral cloud breaks and insolation should allow for
gradual destabilization, particularly on the south/southwest fringes
of this early day activity. This should lead to severe storm
development into mid/late afternoon through the evening, potentially
including supercells given the flow enhancement. A couple of
tornadoes could occur aside from wind damage.
...High Plains...
A seasonably anomalous upper trough will continue to amplify and
spread eastward over the Pacific Northwest toward the Great Basin
and Intermountain West, with a lead disturbance ejecting
northeastward toward the northern High Plains. Pronounced lee
troughing is forecast with a surface low expected to evolve over
central and southeast Montana through tonight. A corridor of at
least weak to moderate boundary-layer destabilization is expected
across the High Plains. Strengthening large-scale ascent and ample
vertical shear downstream of the digging large-scale troughing will
favor organized severe thunderstorm development late this afternoon
through evening. Supercells and evolving organized clusters will
pose a risk for large hail and severe gusts, and perhaps a tornado.
Across the central into southern High Plains, isolated to widely
scattered storms will likely develop/mature and propagate east
during the evening. Hail and wind are the primary hazards with this
activity and this severe risk will probably linger into the late
evening.
...New England...
Have introduced a Slight Risk for portions of the region, primarily
focused near the advancing surface low/warm front. A shortwave
trough over Ontario/Lower Great Lakes will move east across New
England by this evening. Cloud cover, albeit abating this afternoon,
will limit the overall magnitude of destabilization, but upwards of
1000-1500 J/kg SBCAPE are forecast to develop along/south of a warm
front. Elongated hodographs beneath a 100+ kt 250-mb speed max will
aid in storm organization in the form of possibly a couple of
supercells and organized multicells. Isolated coverage of large hail
and damaging gusts are the primary risks with the stronger
thunderstorms, but the moist environment and low-level shear/SRH
could yield a tornado threat.
...Mid-Atlantic States to Carolinas...
The southern periphery of stronger mid to high-level westerly flow
is forecast across the region, atop northward-shifting low-level
moisture that is richest across the Carolinas into southern
Virginia, where near/above 70 F surface dewpoints are prevalent. The
overlap of moderate westerly flow and weak destabilization is
expected to support scattered thunderstorms capable of strong to
locally severe/damaging gusts (50-60 mph). Additional sea-breeze
influenced locally severe storms may occur across the coastal plain
of the Carolinas.
..Guyer/Supinie.. 06/26/2026
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SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1242 PM CDT Fri Jun 26 2026
Valid 271200Z - 281200Z
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS...
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHEAST
VA AND EASTERN NC...
...SUMMARY...
Severe storms are likely across portions of eastern Montana and
western/central North Dakota on Saturday. Severe storms will also be
possible from the Mid-Mississippi Valley to Virginia and the
Carolinas, as well as portions of the southern High Plains.
...Synopsis...
An upper low and attendant large-scale upper trough will persist
across the western U.S. on Saturday. Further east, upper ridging
over the Plains is forecast to shift east toward the Upper Midwest
and Mid-MS Valley by Sunday morning. Quasi-zonal/weak upper
troughing is expected to persist across the eastern U.S. Within this
large-scale regime, several shortwave impulses and embedded MCVs are
expected to drive severe thunderstorm potential across multiple
areas on Saturday. A lead upper shortwave trough is expected to
eject from the eastern Great Basin through the northern High Plains.
A series of MCVs will move from the Ozark Plateau to the OH/TN
Valleys, while another MCV and/or surface trough impacts
thunderstorm potential across the Mid-Atlantic/Piedmont. Finally,
another upper shortwave impulse could emerge across the central
Plains into the Mid-MO/Mid-MS Valleys.
...Northern Rockies into the Northern Plains...
A midlevel jet streak will overspread parts of the Great Basin into
the northern Plains, characterized by 50-60 kt southwesterly 500 mb
flow. Cooling aloft is also forecast and will result in a plume of
steep midlevel lapse rates. Surface low pressure is forecast to
deepen across northeast WY/western SD through evening. This will
support northward transport of low to mid 60s F dewpoints into
eastern MT/ND/SD. This will result in a narrow corridor of moderate
to strong instability. Capping will increase with eastward extent as
a result of midlevel height rises/warming aloft, which should
confine the eastward extent of severe potential.
As large-scale ascent increasing during the afternoon, convection is
expected to develop across the higher terrain of northern UT/ID into
WY. This initial activity will pose a risk for strong wind gusts and
isolated hail given strong deep-layer flow, steep midlevel lapse
rates, and a well mixed boundary layer. Additional convection is
expected to develop near the Big Horns and Beartooth/Absaroka
ranges. As this activity develops northeast into better low-level
moisture and strong instability, large to very large hail potential
will increase. With time during the evening, a southerly low-level
jet will increase across the Dakotas. Upscale growth is possible as
convection moves toward the terminus of the low-level jet and as
sufficient clustering/cold pool development occurs. If this
convective evolution unfolds, a swath of damaging wind gusts will be
possible, mainly across eastern MT into western ND.
...Mid-Atlantic...
Ongoing convection and cloudiness will likely hinder daytime
destabilization. Nevertheless, several shortwave impulses will move
across the region along with 25-30 kt westerly midlevel flow.
Isolated strong storms may produce gusty winds. The Slight risk
(level 2 of 5) has been confined to areas nearer the coast where
instability will be greatest.
...Southern High Plains...
A surface trough/dryline will extend south/southwest from western KS
to southwest TX. A moist airmass will exist east of this boundary
with hot temperatures forecast along and just behind the boundary.
Moderate to strong destabilization will occur near the boundary in a
narrow corridor, confined by stronger capping to the east across
much of OK/KS/central TX. However, isolated to widely scattered
storms are expected to develop during peak heating to early evening.
Vertically veering wind profiles with up to 25 kt effective shear
magnitudes suggest organized updrafts and high-based transient
supercell structures are possible. Given a deeply mixed boundary
layer, strong gusts will be possible. Organized updrafts that can be
maintained also will pose a risk of large hail given very steep
midlevel lapse rates and somewhat elongated hodographs.
...Ozarks to TN Valley vicinity...
Storms are forecast to be ongoing Saturday morning across southwest
MO. This activity could pose a marginal wind/hail risk initially.
Additional development is expected from southern IL/southeast MO
into KY/TN by late morning and spread east through the afternoon as
an MCV moves across the region. While deep layer flow will not be
impressive, the MCV could locally enhanced vertical shear.
Thunderstorm clusters will mainly pose a risk for damaging winds as
they track across moisture-rich and moderately unstable airmass.
...Northeast CO/Western NE into central SD...
Convection may develop during the late afternoon along the surface
trough/dryline. Rich boundary layer moisture beneath steep lapse
rates will support strong destabilization. This corridor will remain
rather confined given rising midlevel heights and capping to the
east. Any storms that develop will have potential for strong outflow
gusts and large hail.
...Mid-MO Valley vicinity...
It is uncertain if convection will develop across this area, or if
it does - will it be surface-based, resulting in a rather
conditional severe risk. If storms can develop, an all-hazards
severe risk would be possible given a surface warm front lifting
north across the region amid ample moisture/instability and
supercell wind profiles. Given the conditional nature of the risk,
particularly due to capping, will maintain low severe probabilities.
..Leitman.. 06/26/2026
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SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1151 AM CDT Fri Jun 26 2026
Valid 261700Z - 271200Z
...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR CENTRAL UTAH INTO
NORTHWESTERN ARIZONA AND EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN NEVADA...
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR MUCH OF UTAH...EASTERN
NEVADA...NORTHERN ARIZONA...SOUTHWESTERN WYOMING...AND FAR WESTERN
COLORADO...
***Dangerous fire weather conditions are expected today across
portions of the Great Basin and Southwest***
...Northwestern Arizona and far southeastern Nevada into central
Utah...
The forecast remains on track for hazardous weather conditions
conducive to rapid spread/fire growth on existing wildfires and new
ignitions. Surface observations already depict expansive
single-digit RH values with wind gusts exceeding 30 mph. ERCs are at
or above the 90th percentile, and fuels have proven to be receptive
as several large wildfires (reported to have extreme fire behavior)
are ongoing across the region. At peak heating, sustained
southwesterly surface winds will increase to 25-35 mph amid 5-12% RH
values. An extended burning period is expected (10+ hours for some
locations), as poor overnight humidity recoveries and residual gusty
winds will lead into a second day of dangerous fire weather
conditions (see the Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook).
See the previous discussion for more information.
..Elizalde-Garcia.. 06/26/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0300 AM CDT Fri Jun 26 2026/
...Synopsis...
Dangerous fire weather conditions are forecast across portions of
the Great Basin and Southwest today as a robust fire weather pattern
begins for an expansive portion of the Intermountain West. This
pattern will bring exceptionally dry and windy conditions following
antecedent dry thunderstorm activity over the past 1-2 days,
resulting in significant fire weather concerns for any new
ignitions, lingering holdovers, and ongoing large fires across the
western CONUS.
...Northwestern Arizona and far southeastern Nevada into central
Utah...
A seasonably strong mid-level trough will dig into the western CONUS
today, with an attendant mid-level jet overspreading portions of the
Great Basin as upper-level ridging amplifies over the Great Plains.
This will promote a deepening surface cyclone over the northern
Great Basin, which will subsequently support a strong surface
pressure gradient across much of the Intermountain West when
combined with surface high pressure over New Mexico. Latest high-res
guidance continues to depict a corridor of strong southwesterly
winds (sustained 25-35 mph) developing amid very low RH values of
5-15% from far southeastern Nevada and northwestern Arizona into
central Utah. With very dry and receptive fuels across this region
(ERCs in the 80-90+ percentiles) and ongoing large wildfire
activity, these conditions will yield an extremely critical fire
weather threat across this region. Deep boundary layer mixing
coupled with the aforementioned mid-level jet will also promote wind
gusts to 45 mph. A more expansive area of elevated to critical fire
weather concerns is expected across adjacent areas of the Great
Basin where modestly weaker sustained surface winds (generally 15-25
mph) are forecast to overlap very low RH values of 5-20%. An
extended period of critical wind/RH conditions (perhaps 10+ hours
for some locations), poor overnight humidity recoveries, and
residual gusty winds are forecast. Only minor adjustments were made
to the drawn areas with this update to reflect the latest available
guidance, and minor trimming was done on the northeastern extent of
the Elevated highlights in central Wyoming to account for heavier
rainfall on Thursday.
...Colorado Plateau...
Increasing mid-level flow and ascent ahead of the approaching
mid-level trough (coupled with dry boundary layer profiles and PWAT
values of 0.5-0.8") will support the potential for isolated dry
thunderstorms this afternoon from northwestern New Mexico into much
of western Colorado. While storm motions are anticipated to be
generally 20-30+ kts, pockets of heavier rainfall totals are
possible, especially across northwestern New Mexico and southwestern
Colorado where the latest guidance suggests PWAT contents and storm
coverage may be locally greater. Thus, a mix of wet/dry
thunderstorms is likely. Pockets of lingering receptive fuels (ERCs
in the 80-90+ percentile) will continue to be receptive to lightning
ignitions, however, and concerns regarding any lightning ignitions
increase as multiple days of critical fire weather conditions are
expected this weekend.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
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