RSS Mesoscale Discussions from Storm Prediction Center
No watches are valid as of Fri May 1 11:20:02 UTC 2026.
No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Fri May 1 11:20:02 UTC 2026.
Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0234 AM CDT Fri May 01 2026
Valid 041200Z - 091200Z
...DISCUSSION...
...Days 4-6/Mon-Wed -- Southern Plains...Mid/Lower MS
Valley...Southeast...
An upper trough will develop southward across the northern Plains
and Upper Midwest on Monday. At the same time, another upper trough
will be oriented over southern CA and offshore over the Pacific. In
response to modest height falls and increasing westerly flow across
the Rockies, a lee low will develop over the central/southern High
Plains. Increasing southerly low-level flow will allow modified Gulf
moisture to return northward ahead of a dryline across the southern
Plains, and to the south of a cold front developing southward across
the central Plains and Upper MS Valley. Isolated strong to severe
thunderstorms will be possible within the narrow moist/warm sector
ahead of these surface boundaries, particularly the cold front
across parts of the MO/Mid-MS Valley, as capping may persist further
south across the Southern Plains. Given modest boundary moisture
with north and east extent across the Midwest, it is uncertain how
robust convection may be and where the most favorable area for
severe storms may develop, precluding 15 percent probabilities at
this time for Day 4/Mon.
By Day 5/Tue, the jet associated with the eastward advancing
Southwest U.S. trough will being to phase with the upper trough over
the north-central U.S. This will bring strengthening southwesterly
flow to portions of the southern Plains and Mid-South vicinity while
southwesterly low-level flow continues to transport Gulf moisture
north/northeast ahead of a southeastward-advancing surface cold
front. The warm sector will become increasingly narrow toward the
Lower Ohio Valley, and any strong to severe thunderstorm potential
would likely focus from parts of Texas into Arkansas/far western
TN/KY. However, model guidance varies with regard to placement and
extent of potential convection ongoing Tuesday morning, which will
have implications for severe potential through the rest of the day.
Differences in the location of the surface front also add
uncertainty, precluding a 15 percent delineation.
Some strong to severe thunderstorm potential could persist into Day
6/Wed across parts of the Lower MS Valley and southeastern U.S. This
remains uncertain and will be influenced by convective evolution in
the days prior.
...Days 7-8/Thu-Fri...
The surface cold front is expected to move offshore the East Coast
on Day 7/Thu. Thunderstorm potential will continue ahead of the
front across the Southeast to the Mid-Atlantic, but severe potential
is uncertain as destabilization may be limited by widespread
rainfall and cloud cover. On Day 8/Fri, most of the CONUS will be
stable/dry behind the cold frontal passage. However, guidance
suggests a shortwave upper trough will approach the southern
Rockies/northern Mexico and surface cyclogenesis will maintain a
moist airmass across TX. If this occurs, some severe potential could
develop across parts of TX.
Read more
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0201 AM CDT Fri May 01 2026
Valid 011200Z - 021200Z
...Synopsis...
Broad mid-level troughing, with multiple embedded perturbations
should gradually deepen over the eastern US today as ridging builds
across the Great Basin. West of the ridge, a closed low will develop
offshore and slowly move inland over the Pacific Northwest. Strong
westerly flow is expected over much of the Gulf Coast and eastern US
as a frontal boundary slowly sags southward. Widespread
precipitation is forecast along and north of the front which should
greatly limit fire-weather potential outside of FL.
...FL...
South of the slow-moving front across the Gulf Coast and northern
FL, enhanced westerly flow is expected over the central and eastern
Peninsula this afternoon. While not overly strong (10-15 mph gusts),
the breezy conditions should develop beneath clear skies, a
relatively dry air mass with RH values of 30-35% and surface
temperatures near 90F. Widespread receptive fuels (ERCs in the
90-97th percentiles) will support elevated fire weather conditions.
..Lyons.. 05/01/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0211 AM CDT Fri May 01 2026
Valid 021200Z - 031200Z
...Synopsis...
Mid-level troughing is forecast to intensify over the eastern US
Saturday as southwesterly flow aloft also strengthens. This will
drive a cold front into the Gulf, though gusty winds and dry
conditions are expected ahead of it over parts of FL. To the west of
the upper trough, northwesterly flow will persist over the Plains
ahead of a ridge over the Great Basin. A dry cold front will move
southward across the northern Plains supporting dry and breezy
conditions into parts of the Dakotas/MT.
...FL...
Another day of dry and breezy conditions is expected for portions of
central and southern FL. Surface winds should be somewhat stronger
than Friday as the upper trough over the eastern US deepens and flow
aloft increases. Surface gusts of 10-20 mph are possible amid RH
below 35%. Area fuels remain quite dry with little recent rainfall
and ERC values above the 95th percentile. Fire-weather concerns
should end with the frontal passage and some light rainfall possible
into the evening and overnight.
...Northern Plains...
On the backside of the broader eastern US trough, a subtle shortwave
will support a weak surface cyclone along a cold front moving out
southern Canada. Gusty northwest winds of 15-25 mph are expected
with the front. With little surface moisture in place, afternoon RH
values below 20% are likely. Combined with dry fuels, the dry/breezy
conditions will likely support a few hours of elevated fire weather
concerns across southwestern ND, northwestern SD and southeastern
MT, where recent rainfall has been minimal and fuels remain dry.
..Lyons.. 05/01/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
|
