RSS Mesoscale Discussions from Storm Prediction Center
No watches are valid as of Thu Feb 19 15:05:02 UTC 2026.
MD 0096 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR NORTHERN INDIANA VICINITY
Mesoscale Discussion 0096
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0903 AM CST Thu Feb 19 2026
Areas affected...northern Indiana vicinity
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 191503Z - 191630Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent
SUMMARY...Isolated elevated thunderstorms may produce marginally
severe hail for a couple of hours this morning. The overall risk
should remain limit in magnitude, and a watch is not expected at
this time.
DISCUSSION...Elevated thunderstorms are ongoing this morning within
an area of warm advection to the north of a surface warm front.
Morning regional RAOBs and latest SPC Mesoanalysis indicated cold
temperatures aloft supporting midlevel lapse rates greater than 7
C/km. As a result, MUCAPE has increased to 250-500 J/kg. Sufficient
effective shear for organized storms is present. Furthermore,
elongated hodographs with increasing west/southwesterly flow aloft
are noted. This environment may sporadically support strong storms
producing marginal hail up to around 1 inch in diameter. The
magnitude of this initial convection is expected to remain limit,
precluding watch issuance at this time.
..Leitman/Mosier.. 02/19/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...ILN...IWX...IND...LOT...
LAT...LON 41128707 41458609 41618540 41508470 41148462 40718465
40568515 40528636 40598680 40768704 41128707
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN
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SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0700 AM CST Thu Feb 19 2026
Valid 191300Z - 201200Z
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHERN
ILLINOIS AND SOUTHERN INDIANA...
...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms including a few tornadoes, large hail and
damaging wind gusts are expected across parts of the Midwest and
lower Ohio Valley today. Elsewhere, storms may produce strong wind
gusts over parts of coastal south-central California early today.
...Midwest/Ohio Valley...
A strong belt (80-100 kt at 500 mb) of cyclonically influenced
westerlies will extend from the Southwest Deserts to the Ohio and
Tennessee Valleys, with modest late-day trough amplification over
the central Plains and Lower Missouri Valley. A related surface low
will transition east-northeastward across the Lower Missouri Valley
toward southern Lake Michigan tonight. A modestly moist warm sector
will become increasingly established, characterized by mostly 50s F
surface dewpoints, northward from the Mid-South across most of
Illinois/Indiana into western/southern Ohio by early evening.
A steady strengthening of southwesterly winds aloft will occur
today, increasingly atop/coincident with the modestly moist
warm-sector boundary layer. Long hodographs will be prevalent with
upwards of 50-60 kt effective shear by afternoon. Around 200-350
m2/s2 0-1 km SRH is expected to be maximized on the southeast
periphery of the surface low and in vicinity of the warm front, with
the favorable zone including southern Illinois, southern Indiana and
northern Kentucky.
Increasing storm development should occur by late morning/midday
across eastern Missouri, with maturing/increasingly surface-based
storms near and just north of the I-70 corridor in southern Illinois
by early afternoon. A semi-focused zone of peak severe/tornado
potential may unfold generally near I-70, southward to near I-64,
across southern Illinois and southern Indiana this afternoon through
early/mid-evening. Sufficient forcing and boundary layer
warming/mixing should allow for at least isolated semi-discrete
development southward into the warm sector, and if so, relatively
long-lived multi-hour supercells are plausible, with all hazards
possible, but notably including heightened tornado potential, a few
of which could be strong (EF2+). Given the limited early season
moisture, the boundary layer will tend to become more hostile to
surface-based storms and overall severe potential into mid/late
evening.
...Coastal South-Central California...
Bands of shallow convection will continue to move inland this
morning. Weak destabilization, along with moderate mean
boundary-layer winds just off the surface, could allow for locally
strong to damaging gusts as the front progresses southeastward.
..Guyer/Grams.. 02/19/2026
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