RSS Mesoscale Discussions from Storm Prediction Center
No watches are valid as of Sat May 2 00:53:01 UTC 2026.
No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Sat May 2 00:53:01 UTC 2026.
SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0723 PM CDT Fri May 01 2026
Valid 020100Z - 021200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE CENTRAL GULF COAST...
...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms with isolated severe wind gusts will be possible this
evening into tonight along the central Gulf Coast.
...Discussion...
Thunderstorm activity will continue across portions of the central
Gulf Coast this evening. While the more favorably unstable air mass
remains mostly offshore, occasional strong cells/clusters may track
inland with potential for damaging winds as large scale ascent
increasing through the evening/overnight period. Closer to the front
offshore, a few transient supercells and a tornado may be possible.
Overall, the threat inland remains isolated and a Marginal risk was
maintained this evening to account for this potential.
..Thornton.. 05/02/2026
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SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0437 PM CDT Fri May 01 2026
Valid 031200Z - 091200Z
...Synopsis...
An amplifying upper trough across the eastern U.S. and deepening
surface low near the Carolina Coast will send a cold front and
associated rainfall southeastward over the weekend. This will
provide a temporary fire weather reprieve not only to Florida but to
much of the Southeast and portions of the Mid Atlantic where fuels
have been exceptionally dry. A deepening surface low traversing
south-central Canada should bring stronger west-northwest winds and
low RH to portions of the northern Plains on Day 3/Sunday. Dry and
breezy conditions return to the Southwest Day 3/Sunday and Southern
High Plains Day 4-5/Monday-Tuesday as upper-level troughing
gradually shifts into the region.
...Days 3-5/Sunday-Tuesday...
...Northern Plains...
Beneath an upper level shortwave trough, a surface low will begin to
deepen on Day 3/Sunday as it traverses south-central Canada. Surface
pressure gradients should tighten across much of the northern
Plains, promoting dry and breezy conditions ahead of a southward
progressing cold front and increasing cloud cover. 40% Critical
probabilities have been introduced to account for these conditions
amid very dry fuels.
...Southern Plains...
Increasing southwesterly flow aloft should overspread the Southwest
and Southern Plains as a lee surface trough develops across the
southern Plains early next week. This will support dry and breezy
conditions across the Southwest on Day 3/Sunday, with downslope
drying and enhanced winds evolving in the southern High Plains Day
4/Monday and Day 5/Tuesday. Preceding widespread rainfall in
addition to ongoing green up across the region should limit the
impact of an otherwise enhanced fire weather concern across portions
of the southern Plains and Southwest. However, in areas that did not
receive appreciable rainfall, fire weather concerns will reemerge
for east-central NM into parts of the TX Panhandle on Day 4/Monday
where 40% Critical probabilities have been introduced. Dry and
breezy conditions continue on Day 5/Tuesday for the southern Plains
as the upper trough moves overhead and a surface low develops over
Oklahoma. A cold front will traverse the region during the
morning/afternoon, though guidance ambiguity in timing of the front
arrival precludes the introduction of critical probabilities at this
time.
..Elizalde-Garcia.. 05/01/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
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