RSS Mesoscale Discussions from Storm Prediction Center
No watches are valid as of Tue Dec 2 07:44:02 UTC 2025.
MD 2244 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR THE COASTAL FLORIDA PANHANDLE
Mesoscale Discussion 2244
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0114 AM CST Tue Dec 02 2025
Areas affected...the coastal Florida Panhandle
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 020714Z - 021115Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent
SUMMARY...Mini-supercells may eventually move ashore, affecting
primarily coastal counties of the Florida Panhandle. A brief tornado
cannot be ruled out later tonight.
DISCUSSION...Radar shows multiple small supercells over the
northeastern Gulf of America, ahead of a cold front and along a warm
front. The warm front is currently offshore as can be seen with
backed surface winds over land and temperatures in the 60s F.
Instability is currently weak, with minimal lightning detected even
with the offshore activity. Conditionally, weak tornadoes may still
occur assuming the warm front moves ashore.
Recent hourly pressure falls over 1 mb indicate good column warming
and likely erosion of the cooler air mass. Over the next few hours,
surface winds will gradually veer, with temperatures likely jumping
along the coast. Low-level shear will remain quite strong, again
with instability being the limiting factor. However, any supercells
that move onshore coincident with the warm front may result in
localized brief tornado risk over a limited amount of inland area.
..Jewell/Mosier.. 12/02/2025
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...TAE...MOB...
LAT...LON 30388653 30608620 30568581 30438497 30408437 30348416
29948418 29528501 29598536 29938555 30158590 30248608
30388653
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
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MD 2243 CONCERNING HEAVY SNOW FOR WESTERN/NORTHERN KENTUCKY AND ADJACENT PORTIONS OF THE OHIO VALLEY
Mesoscale Discussion 2243
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0910 PM CST Mon Dec 01 2025
Areas affected...western/northern Kentucky and adjacent portions of
the Ohio Valley
Concerning...Heavy snow
Valid 020310Z - 020915Z
SUMMARY...A narrow developing corridor of heavy snow rates around or
in excess of 1 inch per hour appears possible, spreading across
western through northern Kentucky between Midnight-4 AM EST (11 PM-3
AM CST).
DISCUSSION...Multiple speed maxima are embedded within a broad belt
of strong west-southwesterly mid/upper flow now overspreading the
southern Great Plains through Atlantic Seaboard. Around 500 mb, the
strongest of these is nosing east-northeast of the Ozark Plateau
through the lower Ohio Valley, accompanied by a focused area of
increasingly difluent and divergent upper flow which is forecast to
overspread much of Kentucky and adjacent portions of the Ohio Valley
late this evening into the overnight hours.
It appears that large-scale forcing for ascent will be aided by
lower/mid-tropospheric frontogenesis, which Rapid Refresh forecast
soundings indicate will contribute to a period of strong lift
maximizing in mid-levels, within a corridor near the Ohio River.
This is forecast to include a layer near/below 500 mb, where
saturating profiles with temperatures around -15 C will be most
conducive to large dendritic ice crystal growth.
Although lower-level temperatures across portions of western through
northern Kentucky are fluctuating a bit, from just above to below
freezing, cold advection to the northwest of a developing frontal
wave is expected to support snow or a transition to snow as heavier
precipitation commences. As precipitable water content increases to
0.6 to 0.7 + inches along the frontal zone, guidance suggests at
least a couple hour period of heavy snow rates on the order of 1-2
inches per hour is possible, developing near or to the west/north of
Hopkinsville and Bowling Green before spreading toward areas
around/north/northeast of Lexington between 05-09Z.
..Kerr.. 12/02/2025
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...RLX...JKL...ILN...LMK...OHX...PAH...MEG...
LAT...LON 39068358 38618257 37878387 37028611 36468814 36448918
37308815 38238585 39068358
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SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1153 PM CST Mon Dec 01 2025
Valid 021200Z - 031200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe storms are possible mainly across the Florida
Panhandle this morning. The stronger storms will be capable of
producing locally damaging gusts and perhaps a brief tornado.
...Synopsis...
A broad midlevel trough will advance eastward from the Ohio Valley
into the western Atlantic Ocean through the period. In the
low-levels, a frontal-wave low -- initially near the western FL
Panhandle -- will move eastward across northern FL while being
absorbed into a broad surface trough extending from the Carolinas
southwestward into northern FL during the late morning hours.
Thereafter, a coastal low will develop northward along the Eastern
Seaboard, while a related southward-extending cold front approaches
the western FL Peninsula during the afternoon/evening time frame.
...FL Panhandle...
Thunderstorms will be ongoing across the FL Panhandle at the start
of the period -- within a zone of surface convergence and low-level
warm advection preceding the frontal-wave low. Despite poor
deep-layer lapse rates, upper 60s dewpoints will contribute to
surface-based inflow for this activity as it spreads eastward across
northern FL through the morning hours. Around 40-50 kt of effective
shear and clockwise-curved low-level hodographs will conditionally
support a couple transient supercell structures and small line
segments. Locally damaging gusts and perhaps a brief tornado will be
possible with the stronger storms that develop. The severe risk will
diminish from west to east as surface winds veer and the strongest
low-level mass response accompanying the midlevel trough shifts
northeastward into the afternoon hours.
Farther south, a strong storm or two may approach portions of the
western FL Peninsula ahead of the cold front during the late
morning/early afternoon hours -- aided by around 40 kt of effective
shear and weak surface-based buoyancy. However, this area will be
well removed from the deep-layer forcing for ascent, suggesting that
storms should be weakening as they approach coastal areas amid the
weak buoyancy.
...Outer Banks..
As the coastal low tracks northward along the Eastern Seaboard, the
surface-based warm sector should generally remain offshore -- where
ample PBL moisture and strong low/deep-layer shear will favor
supercells. Depending on the track of the surface low, a couple
strong storms may track northward close to the Outer Banks during
the morning, though confidence in storms impacting coastal areas is
too low to add severe-thunderstorm probabilities at this time.
..Weinman.. 12/02/2025
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SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1259 AM CST Tue Dec 02 2025
Valid 031200Z - 041200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are possible over southeast Texas into Louisiana on
Wednesday into early Thursday morning. Severe storms appear
unlikely.
...Synopsis...
A broad, low-amplitude mid-level trough will traverse the central
CONUS tomorrow (Wednesday), aiding in the reinforcement of surface
high pressure and associated static stability across most of the
CONUS. While thunderstorm development should be suppressed over most
locales, isolated thunderstorms may develop within a broad warm-air
advection regime along the western Gulf Coast. Thunderstorms will be
most likely as a cold front surges into the Gulf, locally enhancing
low-level lift within the warm-air advection regime. Forecast
soundings along the TX/LA coast and inland suggest that a stable
layer will be in place, so storms inland should be elevated in
nature. Given the expected meager buoyancy, the risk for severe
storms appears too low for probabilities.
..Squitieri.. 12/02/2025
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SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0139 AM CST Tue Dec 02 2025
Valid 021200Z - 031200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
...Synopsis...
Within the base of a gradually amplifying large-scale trough over
the West, a belt of moderate midlevel westerly flow will overspread
the southern Rockies and adjacent High Plains today. In response, a
lee cyclone will deepen in the vicinity of northeastern NM. These
factors will contribute to dry/breezy downslope flow from eastern NM
into the TX Panhandle and South Plains during the afternoon. While a
corridor of 20 mph sustained west-southwesterly surface winds are
expected amid 15-20 percent RH, unreceptive fuels should limit most
fire-weather concerns. East of the lee cyclone, dry/breezy return
flow will develop across northwest TX into western OK. Similarly,
marginal fuels should limit the wildfire risk.
..Weinman.. 12/02/2025
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
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SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0141 AM CST Tue Dec 02 2025
Valid 031200Z - 041200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
...Synopsis...
On the backside of a midlevel trough moving across the Four Corners
region, surface high pressure will build over the Great Basin. This
will yield an enhanced offshore pressure gradient across southern
CA. While locally dry/breezy conditions are expected (especially
over the wind-prone mountains and valleys), marginal fuels and
limited RH reductions should keep any fire-weather risk localized.
..Weinman.. 12/02/2025
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
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