RSS Mesoscale Discussions from Storm Prediction Center
No watches are valid as of Sun Jan 18 00:41:01 UTC 2026.
No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Sun Jan 18 00:41:01 UTC 2026.
SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0153 PM CST Sat Jan 17 2026
Valid 172000Z - 181200Z
...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are not forecast across the U.S. today or tonight.
...20z Update...
No changes are needed to the current D1 Convective Outlook. See
previous discussion below for more information.
..Thornton.. 01/17/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1001 AM CST Sat Jan 17 2026/
...Discussion...
Deep convective potential will remain virtually nil through tonight
as a longwave trough persists east of the Rockies, with an embedded
shortwave trough amplifying over the Lower Missouri Valley/Ozarks
and Midwest. At the surface, a cold front will continue
southeastward and clear much of the coastal Southeast except the
Florida Peninsula by tonight. Near/ahead of the front, even with
some late-day moisture increase across the Peninsula, poor lapse
rates aloft are expected to limit thunderstorm potential.
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SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0337 PM CST Sat Jan 17 2026
Valid 191200Z - 251200Z
...Synopsis...
A broad, upper-level troughing pattern should persist across the
eastern U.S. through the middle of next week, ushering in several
cold fronts into the central and southern Plains, where dry
conditions and pockets of receptive fuels remain. Pronounced ridging
aloft will support dry and anomalously warm conditions across much
of the Intermountain West through Day 5/Thursday. Longer term
ensemble guidance shows a breakdown of the ridge across the western
U.S./northeast Pacific by late week, that could promote better
opportunities for Pacific moisture intrusion into the West by the
weekend.
...Day 4/Tuesday - Central High Plains...
Increasing west-northwesterly flow aloft ahead of an upper-level
short wave and lee trough development across the central/northern
High Plains should support enhanced downslope drying and warming
across southeastern WY and eastern CO Tuesday. However, preceding
light snowfall late Day 2/Sunday into Day 3/Monday across eastern CO
could mitigate overall fire weather impacts.
...Days 5-8/Wednesday-Saturday...
Surface high pressure is expected to slide into the Southeast/Mid
Atlantic while troughing evolves across the southern High Plains
midweek, promoting better moisture return and subsequent widespread
precipitation across eastern TX and the Lower MS River Valley.
Timing of frontal passages and spatial distribution of dry return
flow events later in the week becomes less certain, particularly
across the southern/central Plains where receptive fuels remain.
This precludes introduction of critical probabilities in the longer
term.
..Williams.. 01/17/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
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