RSS Mesoscale Discussions from Storm Prediction Center
No watches are valid as of Fri May 1 17:46:02 UTC 2026.
MD 0633 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA INTO EXTREME SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI
Mesoscale Discussion 0633
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1207 PM CDT Fri May 01 2026
Areas affected...portions of southeastern Louisiana into extreme
southern Mississippi
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 011707Z - 011900Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent
SUMMARY...Scattered thunderstorms are expected this afternoon across
much of southern Louisiana. A couple of stronger storms may bring
some potential for isolated severe hazards, including marginally
severe hail, severe wind gusts, and a brief tornado, to portions of
southeastern Louisiana.
DISCUSSION...Latest regional radar imagery depicts ongoing
thunderstorms along/south of the Louisiana coastline, with a
stronger core currently noted south of Vermilion Parish, ahead of a
subtle (and potentially convectively-enhanced) mid-level
perturbation analyzed over eastern Texas. This convection is located
in close proximity to the analyzed location of a surface stationary
front, with latest mesoanalysis depicting 500-1000 J/kg MLCAPE south
of this boundary, with little buoyancy to its north. Strong
mid/upper level flow (60+ kts at 5 km AGL per the HDC VWP) and
effective bulk shear of 60+ kts will support the potential for
supercell structures, with Bunker's motion favoring right-moving
supercell tracks along/parallel to the surface boundary. While weak
available buoyancy and marginal mid-level lapse rates (evident in
the 12z LIX observed sounding) are likely to limit the overall
severe potential, isolated marginally severe hail and strong wind
gusts (likely within the 40-50 mph range) are possible with stronger
cores that come onshore and/or persist on the cool side of the
boundary.
A brief tornado/waterspout may also be possible, especially along
and south of the surface boundary where organized storms may better
realize surface-based buoyancy. A gradual strengthening of low-level
southerly flow is anticipated with time later this afternoon/evening
ahead of a developing surface cyclone, and this should promote at
least some increase in low-level hodograph curvature and associated
tornado risk with time. Despite this, low-level shear is forecast to
remain modest at best. When coupled with the aforementioned
marginally-favorable thermodynamic environment, this is expected to
limit the overall severe threat. Trends will continue to be
monitored, but watch issuance is not expected at this time.
..Chalmers/Smith.. 05/01/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...LIX...LCH...
LAT...LON 29169149 29299180 29499185 29769123 29969031 30088919
30058873 29938856 29058897 28868921 28858976 29009074
29169149
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN
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SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1124 AM CDT Fri May 01 2026
Valid 011630Z - 021200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM
SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS TO THE UPPER COAST OF TEXAS...AND THE CENTRAL
GULF COAST INTO THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...
...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms with isolated severe wind gusts and hail will be
possible today across parts of south-central and southeast Texas,
and this evening into tonight along the central Gulf Coast.
...Synopsis...
Late morning water-vapor imagery shows a potent mid-level shortwave
trough moving east across Far West TX and Chihuahua. This upper
feature will move quickly east and weaken while moving into
increasingly confluent flow through the base of a larger-scale
eastern U.S. trough. As a weak cyclone develops east along a
west-east draped front from south TX northeastward to the mouth of
the MS River, strengthening low to mid-level flow associated with
warm advection will overspread the northern Gulf of America into the
FL Panhandle tonight.
Strong to locally severe thunderstorm clusters have episodically
developed and moved east across south-central TX this morning
immediately downstream of the upper disturbance. Localized
hail/wind may accompany the stronger storms through the mid-late
afternoon. A shallow post-frontal stable layer near the surface and
weak instability lended confidence in removing low tornado
probabilities over TX this outlook update. See MCD #632 regarding
short-term details.
Farther east, little in the way of destabilization is currently
depicted by the latest model guidance to the north of the front,
specifically from near Lake Pontchartrain eastward over the near
shore waters to the south of Mobile Bay and the western FL
Panhandle. North of the boundary, a low risk for large hail will be
maintained as a couple of stronger elevated storms intensify later
this evening into the overnight and traverse eastward in tandem with
increasing large-scale ascent/strengthening flow fields. Near and
immediately south of the front, have focused the tornado and wind
probabilities this outlook update to the proximity of surface-based
inflow parcels potentially being realized by organized storm modes.
..Smith/Chalmers.. 05/01/2026
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SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1212 PM CDT Fri May 01 2026
Valid 021200Z - 031200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR FAR SOUTHERN
GEORGIA...EASTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE INTO NORTH AND CENTRAL
FLORIDA...
...SUMMARY...
Strong to severe storms are possible across southern Georgia into
northern/central Florida Saturday morning into early evening.
...Synopsis...
A large upper trough will be present across much of the eastern U.S.
on Saturday. The mid-level jet will be intensifying through the
period, primarily north of a surface cold front. South of the cold
front, upper 60s to low 70s F dewpoints will be in place.
...Southern Georgia into central Florida...
Convection will be ongoing early Saturday morning. The intensity of
this early activity is not certain, though thunderstorms will be in
a highly sheared (55-65 kt effective) environment. An initial warm
layer around 700 mb may limit overall intensity before modest
cooling aloft occurs mid/late morning. At least filtered heating is
expected to occur south of the cold front. MLCAPE by the afternoon
of 1000-1500 J/kg is possible. With shear parallel to the cold
front, there is potential for the front to undercut some of the
convection. However, one or more organizing linear segments/clusters
could still occur along/south of the boundary. Wind damage would
likely be the primary hazard with this activity. Large hail is still
a possibility, but would be somewhat conditional on a discrete storm
mode. The tornado threat remains less certain. The low-level jet
will be strongest in the morning before lifting north and east
through the day. This would mean diurnal destabilization would be
out of phase with the strongest low-level wind field. While the
overall threat for a tornado or two appears low, there is a narrow
zone in North Florida where marginally stronger low-level shear and
boundary-layer destabilization may favorably align mid/late morning.
Uncertainty in the position of the boundary/low-level thermodynamics
is too high for an increase in tornado probabilities.
..Wendt.. 05/01/2026
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SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1128 AM CDT Fri May 01 2026
Valid 011700Z - 021200Z
...Morning Update...
The previous forecast remains on track. Mostly clear skies across
the FL Peninsula this morning will promote sufficient boundary layer
mixing into a drier airmass aloft. However, mid/high cloud cover is
expected to expand over the region as a digging northern stream
trough increases moisture aloft later this afternoon. Inland RH
values are expected to drop to 30-35 percent at peak heating while
westerly winds hover around 10 mph (gusts up to 15 mph) atop drought
stressed fuels, supportive of Elevated fire weather conditions.
..Elizalde-Garcia.. 05/01/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0201 AM CDT Fri May 01 2026/
...Synopsis...
Broad mid-level troughing, with multiple embedded perturbations
should gradually deepen over the eastern US today as ridging builds
across the Great Basin. West of the ridge, a closed low will develop
offshore and slowly move inland over the Pacific Northwest. Strong
westerly flow is expected over much of the Gulf Coast and eastern US
as a frontal boundary slowly sags southward. Widespread
precipitation is forecast along and north of the front which should
greatly limit fire-weather potential outside of FL.
...FL...
South of the slow-moving front across the Gulf Coast and northern
FL, enhanced westerly flow is expected over the central and eastern
Peninsula this afternoon. While not overly strong (10-15 mph gusts),
the breezy conditions should develop beneath clear skies, a
relatively dry air mass with RH values of 30-35% and surface
temperatures near 90F. Widespread receptive fuels (ERCs in the
90-97th percentiles) will support elevated fire weather conditions.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
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