RSS Mesoscale Discussions from Storm Prediction Center
WW 152 TORNADO AR OK 262215Z - 270500Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Tornado Watch Number 152
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
515 PM CDT Sun Apr 26 2026
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Tornado Watch for portions of
Northwest Arkansas
North Central and Northeast Oklahoma
* Effective this Sunday afternoon from 515 PM until Midnight CDT.
* Primary threats include...
A few tornadoes likely with a couple intense tornadoes possible
Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 3
inches in diameter likely
Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely
SUMMARY...Isolated severe thunderstorms are expected to develop
across north-central Oklahoma late this afternoon. These storms will
track east through the evening into northeast Oklahoma and far
northwest Arkansas. Supercells capable of producing tornadoes, a
couple of which could be strong, large to very large hail, and
damaging wind gusts are possible.
The tornado watch area is approximately along and 95 statute miles
east and west of a line from 30 miles northwest of Bartlesville OK
to 20 miles south of Tulsa OK. For a complete depiction of the watch
see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU2).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for
tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch
area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for
threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements
and possible warnings.
&&
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 149...WW 150...WW 151...
AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail
surface and aloft to 3 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind
gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean
storm motion vector 27035.
...Leitman
Read more
WW 151 TORNADO OK TX 262055Z - 270400Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Tornado Watch Number 151
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
355 PM CDT Sun Apr 26 2026
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Tornado Watch for portions of
Southern Oklahoma
Western North Texas
* Effective this Sunday afternoon and evening from 355 PM until
1100 PM CDT.
* Primary threats include...
A couple tornadoes possible
Scattered large hail likely with isolated very large hail events
to 3 inches in diameter possible
Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible
SUMMARY...Initial storm development appears imminent near the Red
River, and a very unstable environment and stronger deep-layer winds
will support intense supercells capable of very large hail. Tornado
potential would also steadily increase into this evening.
The tornado watch area is approximately along and 45 statute miles
east and west of a line from 40 miles east northeast of Fort Sill OK
to 60 miles south southwest of Wichita Falls TX. For a complete
depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update
(WOUS64 KWNS WOU1).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for
tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch
area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for
threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements
and possible warnings.
&&
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 149...WW 150...
AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail
surface and aloft to 3 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind
gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 550. Mean
storm motion vector 26025.
...Guyer
Read more
WW 150 TORNADO KS MO 262025Z - 270400Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Tornado Watch Number 150
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
325 PM CDT Sun Apr 26 2026
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Tornado Watch for portions of
Southeast Kansas
Western and Southwest Missouri
* Effective this Sunday afternoon and evening from 325 PM until
1100 PM CDT.
* Primary threats include...
A few tornadoes possible
Scattered damaging winds likely with isolated significant gusts
to 75 mph possible
Scattered large hail likely with isolated very large hail events
to 2.5 inches in diameter possible
SUMMARY...A line of strong storms will continue to move
east-southeastward through late afternoon and early evening, with
the most intense storms on its southern flank. Additional
potentially supercellular development may occur ahead of the line
and to its south-southwest. Large hail and damaging winds will
remain common, and tornado potential should increase through early
evening.
The tornado watch area is approximately along and 45 statute miles
north and south of a line from 25 miles west of Chanute KS to 45
miles north northeast of Springfield MO. For a complete depiction of
the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS
WOU0).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for
tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch
area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for
threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements
and possible warnings.
&&
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 149...
AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail
surface and aloft to 2.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind
gusts to 65 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 550. Mean
storm motion vector 28025.
...Guyer
Read more
WW 149 SEVERE TSTM KS MO 261710Z - 270000Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 149
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1210 PM CDT Sun Apr 26 2026
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of
Eastern Kansas
Western Missouri
* Effective this Sunday afternoon and evening from 1210 PM until
700 PM CDT.
* Primary threats include...
Scattered damaging winds and isolated significant gusts to 75
mph possible
Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2
inches in diameter possible
A tornado or two possible
SUMMARY...Severe thunderstorms are expected to further develop near
a boundary and probably become more surface-based over time, with
large hail and damaging winds as the primary hazards.
The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 65
statute miles north and south of a line from 45 miles west southwest
of Manhattan KS to 30 miles east southeast of Kansas City MO. For a
complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline
update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU9).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.
&&
AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 65 knots. A
few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector
27025.
...Guyer
Read more
WW 0152 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 152
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..BROYLES..04/26/26
ATTN...WFO...TSA...OUN...
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 152
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ARC007-143-270040-
AR
. ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BENTON WASHINGTON
OKC001-021-035-037-041-047-053-071-097-103-105-113-115-117-119-
131-143-145-147-270040-
OK
. OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ADAIR CHEROKEE CRAIG
CREEK DELAWARE GARFIELD
GRANT KAY MAYES
NOBLE NOWATA OSAGE
OTTAWA PAWNEE PAYNE
ROGERS TULSA WAGONER
WASHINGTON
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
Read more
WW 0151 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 151
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0552
..MOORE..04/26/26
ATTN...WFO...OUN...FWD...SJT...
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 151
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
OKC019-031-033-049-051-067-085-099-137-141-270040-
OK
. OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CARTER COMANCHE COTTON
GARVIN GRADY JEFFERSON
LOVE MURRAY STEPHENS
TILLMAN
TXC009-023-077-097-237-337-447-485-503-270040-
TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ARCHER BAYLOR CLAY
COOKE JACK MONTAGUE
THROCKMORTON WICHITA YOUNG
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
Read more
WW 0150 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 150
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..BROYLES..04/26/26
ATTN...WFO...ICT...SGF...EAX...
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 150
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
KSC001-011-021-037-099-107-121-125-133-205-270040-
KS
. KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ALLEN BOURBON CHEROKEE
CRAWFORD LABETTE LINN
MIAMI MONTGOMERY NEOSHO
WILSON
MOC011-013-015-037-039-057-077-083-085-097-109-145-167-185-217-
270040-
MO
. MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BARTON BATES BENTON
CASS CEDAR DADE
GREENE HENRY HICKORY
JASPER LAWRENCE NEWTON
POLK ST. CLAIR VERNON
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
Read more
WW 0149 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 149
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0549
..DEAN..04/26/26
ATTN...WFO...ICT...TOP...EAX...
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 149
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
KSC001-003-005-013-015-017-027-031-041-043-045-049-059-061-073-
085-087-091-099-103-107-111-115-117-121-125-127-131-133-139-143-
149-161-177-197-201-205-207-209-262040-
KS
. KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ALLEN ANDERSON ATCHISON
BROWN BUTLER CHASE
CLAY COFFEY DICKINSON
DONIPHAN DOUGLAS ELK
FRANKLIN GEARY GREENWOOD
JACKSON JEFFERSON JOHNSON
LABETTE LEAVENWORTH LINN
LYON MARION MARSHALL
MIAMI MONTGOMERY MORRIS
NEMAHA NEOSHO OSAGE
OTTAWA POTTAWATOMIE RILEY
SHAWNEE WABAUNSEE WASHINGTON
WILSON WOODSON WYANDOTTE
MOC013-021-037-047-049-095-165-262040-
Read more
MD 0553 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 150... FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MISSOURI
Mesoscale Discussion 0553
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0632 PM CDT Sun Apr 26 2026
Areas affected...Central and Southern Missouri
Concerning...Tornado Watch 150...
Valid 262332Z - 270100Z
The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 150 continues.
SUMMARY...A severe threat is expected to develop across parts of
central and southern Missouri over the next couple of hours. As a
severe convective cluster moves toward the eastern edge of Tornado
Watch 150, new watch issuance or a watch extension will become
necessary.
DISCUSSION...Latest surface analysis shows a moist airmass over the
Ozarks, with backed convergent southeasterly winds over much of
central and southern Missouri. Low-level convergence is maximized
over western Missouri, where a severe convective cluster is ongoing.
From this cluster, a gradient of moderate instability (MLCAPE in the
1000 to 2000 J/kg range) extends southeastward across south-central
Missouri. The storms are expected to move along this gradient over
the next couple hour hours, and should make a gradual turn toward
the southeast. The instability combined with moderate deep-layer
shear will support a severe threat. Severe wind gusts, isolated
large hail and a tornado threat will be possible. New weather watch
issuance or a watch extension will be needed within the next hour.
Further to the north across parts of north-central Missouri, from
near Columbia and I-70 northward, the airmass is weakly unstable.
Although isolated severe wind gusts will be possible as the northern
end of the severe convective cluster moves into the area, the weaker
instability should result in a gradual weakening trend.
..Broyles/Leitman.. 04/26/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...PAH...LSX...LZK...SGF...EAX...
LAT...LON 38579409 37819413 36949334 36499258 36399134 36549093
36929069 37419080 38459144 39029206 39209274 39139350
38969388 38579409
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-125 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN
Read more
MD 0552 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 151... FOR PARTS OF NORTHWEST TEXAS AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA
Mesoscale Discussion 0552
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0531 PM CDT Sun Apr 26 2026
Areas affected...Parts of northwest Texas and southern Oklahoma
Concerning...Tornado Watch 151...
Valid 262231Z - 270000Z
The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 151 continues.
SUMMARY...The early stages of supercell splitting and maturation is
ongoing along/south of the Red River in northwest Texas. While
isolated, the potential for very large (2-3 inch) hail, and perhaps
a tornado, will increase over the next 1-2 hours.
DISCUSSION...Radar imagery from KFDR shows the early stages of
supercell splitting ongoing to the west of the Wichita Falls, TX
area, and latest GOES IR 1-minute imagery has shown steady cloud-top
cooling associated with intensifying convection. A couple of hail
reports have already been noted (including hail to up 1.5 inches in
diameter) with these storms. The observed splitting trend
corroborates recent RAP forecast that depict elongated, nearly
straight hodographs across the region that feature around 50 knots
of effective bulk shear. Along with a favorable kinematic
environment, regional buoyancy values are very high with MLCAPE
estimated to be between 3500 to 4000 J/kg. Consequently, continued
intensification of one or both supercells is anticipated over the
next 1-2 hours with an increasing threat for very large hail -
possibly upwards of 2-3 inches based on environmental analogs. While
the environment currently features little effective SRH, some
tornado threat will may emerge with the right split in the coming
hours as east/southeastward motion becomes more prominent.
..Moore.. 04/26/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...
LAT...LON 33889736 33679747 33499772 33559807 33639842 33749875
33919892 33989896 34129898 34389865 34449834 34449747
34229735 33889736
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-110 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...2.00-3.50 IN
Read more
MD 0551 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY FOR NORTH-CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA
Mesoscale Discussion 0551
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0500 PM CDT Sun Apr 26 2026
Areas affected...North-central and Northeast Oklahoma
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely
Valid 262200Z - 270000Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent
SUMMARY...Convective initiation will be possible this evening across
north-central Oklahoma. If this takes place, a tornado threat will
become likely. Tornado watch issuance is anticipated over the next
hour.
DISCUSSION...Latest surface analysis shows a very moist airmass in
place over much of Oklahoma with surface dewpoints in the upper 60s
and lower 70s F. A surface trough is oriented from southwest to
northeast across north-central Oklahoma, where low-level convergence
is maximized. Along this zone, satellite imagery shows an agitated
field of cumulus along the I-35 corridor in northern Oklahoma. To
the east of the trough, the air is very unstable with the RAP
showing MLCAPE in the 3000 to 4000 J/kg range. In addition, a strong
wind field is in place with 0-6 km shear estimated by the RAP to be
in the 35 to 45 knot range. While large-scale ascent does not look
to be strong near the surface trough, low-level convergence could be
enough to initiate convection at some point this evening. If this
where to occur, then rapid supercell development would be expected,
and a tornado threat would become likely. Large hail and severe wind
gusts would also be likely.
..Broyles/Leitman.. 04/26/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...TSA...OUN...
LAT...LON 36989591 36849528 36529508 36279509 36009522 35899582
35909748 35899817 36069853 36329864 36719855 36999816
36989735 36989591
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...120-145 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...2.00-3.50 IN
Read more
SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0258 PM CDT Sun Apr 26 2026
Valid 262000Z - 271200Z
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF
CENTRAL AND EASTERN KANSAS INTO FAR NORTHERN OKLAHOMA AND FAR
WESTERN MISSOURI...
...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms with large to very large hail,
damaging winds and tornadoes are expected this afternoon through
tonight across parts of the southern/central Plains to Lower
Missouri Valley. A couple of strong tornadoes and hailstones up to
2-3 inches in diameter are possible.
...20Z Update...
The forecast (see below) remains generally on track. The main
changes made to this outlook were to expand severe probabilities
farther to the east to account for an uptick in severe potential
later tonight, as depicted by some of the latest high-resolution
guidance.
Overall, uncertainties remain regarding precisely where the
strongest storms are going to occur. OK Mesonet data over the past
few hours have depicted some lowering of dewpoints in west-central
OK, with a slightly diminished CU field noted. However, several
guidance members depict supercellular development in the 02-06Z
period over northern OK, likely in part to the strengthening of a
low-level jet. Given impressive shear profiles and 8.5-9 C/km
mid-level lapse rates expected in this region overnight, it is
plausible that the strongest storms for the remainder of the period
(to 12Z Monday morning) may occur here, with 2+ inch diameter hail
and perhaps strong tornadoes. The primary uncertainty for
introducing higher tornado probabilities over northern OK is the
possible late storm initiation and associated boundary layer
stabilization, which may dampen the robustness of tornado production
with these storms.
Visible satellite imagery depicts more agitated CU centered over
Baylor County, TX, which may hint at locally higher/less conditional
severe threat across far north-central TX later this afternoon and
evening. However, synoptic forcing is weak, and if storms form, they
will likely be sparse, precluding the addition of higher severe
probabilities in this region at this time.
..Squitieri.. 04/26/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1154 AM CDT Sun Apr 26 2026/
...Southern/Central Plains to the Mid Mississippi Valley...
Appreciable severe potential is still readily apparent especially
later this afternoon into tonight, although sub-regional details
remain quite complex, particularly regarding the southern extent of
deep convective initiation southward along the dryline.
A weak lead mid-level vorticity maximum over the central High Plains
early today will continue to aid elevated thunderstorm development
across Kansas through the afternoon. See Mesoscale Discussion 547
for short-term details. Increasing MUCAPE with persistent low-level
warm/moist advection and steepening mid-level
lapse rates combined with strong deep-layer shear will support
organized updrafts, including the potential for supercells. This
convection will probably tend to remain elevated to the north of a
front as it spreads east-northeastward over the central Plains, but
scattered large hail may occur given the overall favorable
environment. Isolated 2+ inch diameter hail also appears possible
with the strongest cores. Eventually, this activity may pose a
greater threat for damaging winds across eastern Kansas into western
Missouri by late afternoon/early evening.
A more notable mid-level shortwave trough is expected to eject
northeastward across the Southwest and southern/central High Plans
today, accompanied by a 50-60 kt southwesterly mid-level jet. Weak
lee cyclogenesis is forecast to occur across the southeast
Colorado/northeast New Mexico vicinity in response, with the surface
low developing into the Oklahoma Panhandle and southwest Kansas by
this evening. Strong to locally extreme instability is forecast to
develop east of a sharpening dryline across western/central Oklahoma
as daytime heating of a moist airmass occurs. There is still a fair
amount of uncertainty with the placement of an effective warm front
by late afternoon/early evening, but current expectations are for
this boundary to be draped somewhere near north-central Oklahoma by
peak afternoon heating. The surface triple point may serve as a
focus for convective initiation later today into this evening,
although better large-scale ascent associated with the mid-level
shortwave trough overspreading the warm sector will be delayed until
this evening and past peak diurnal heating.
Greater than average uncertainty exists regarding the potential for
surface-based convective initiation today in Oklahoma/north Texas,
but the volatile environment and ample conditional-type potential is
concerning. It appears possible that multiple supercells may develop
with gradual erosion of lingering MLCIN and weak ascent preceding
the ejecting shortwave trough. Any supercells that can root and
ingest the ample low-level moisture will be capable of producing
very large hail (2-3+ inches in diameter) given a overall rather
favorable environment. The tornado potential is less clear through
the day, but a southerly low-level jet will quickly strengthen this
evening and aid curved/elongated hodographs with strong effective
SRH. A somewhat conditional/uncertain threat for a couple of strong
tornadoes remains apparent, especially if any supercells that can
form this afternoon persist into the evening.
Additional, somewhat elevated supercells may form this evening into
tonight along/north of the warm front from northern Oklahoma near
the triple point into Kansas. This activity will also pose a threat
for large to very large hail and possibly an increasing
tornado/damaging wind risk.
Farther south into Texas, the forcing for ascent will remain
weak/nebulous along the dryline. Still, some potential for a few
supercells is apparent across north-central Texas where the greatest
heating and minimal MLCIN is forecast to exist. Large to very large
hail should be the main threat with any splitting supercells that
can develop this afternoon along/east of the dryline and be
sustained.
Read more
SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0219 PM CDT Sun Apr 26 2026
Valid 281200Z - 291200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING IN A CORRIDOR ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN GREAT PLAINS INTO
LOWER OHIO VALLEY...
...SUMMARY...
Scattered strong to severe thunderstorm development is possible
Tuesday afternoon and evening in a corridor from the southeastern
Great Plains into lower Ohio Valley. More isolated severe storm
development may extend into central/western Texas.
...Synopsis...
A broad cyclone will continue to deepen while migrating northeast of
the upper Great Lakes region through the southeastern Hudson Bay
vicinity Tuesday through Tuesday night. As a secondary shortwave
trough deepens across the central Plains, another surface low will
develop near the Oklahoma/Texas Panhandle region. An elongated cold
frontal zone will extend from the Panhandles across eastern Oklahoma
into the Mississippi and Ohio Valley. Widely scattered shower and
thunderstorm development is likely along this boundary as it sags
slowly south and east.
The evolution of features from D2 Monday into D3 Tuesday, including
any remnant outflow boundaries and ongoing storms ect remain
uncertain and thusly leads to some uncertainty in the D3 forecast.
It does appear that the parameter space along and south of the cold
front from eastern Oklahoma/northeastern Texas northward into the
Mississippi River Valley would be supportive of supercells, given
strong mid-level flow and sufficient deep layer shear. These would
likely pose some risk for large to very large hail, damaging wind,
and perhaps tornadoes. Supercells will also be possible near/north
of the boundary across northern Missouri into western Kentucky, with
a risk for elevated storms and large hail. It is likely give the
orientation of shear parallel to the boundary that
clustering/upscale growth will be favored through time, with perhaps
several clusters/bowing segments and some increase of the damaging
wind threat into the Mississippi Valley/Middle Tennessee/Ohio Valley
through the evening. A broad 15% area was maintained, in alignment
with D3 ML CSU/NSSL guidance given uncertainty. A corridor of higher
probabilities may be warranted as details become more clear.
Further south and west along the dryline in central Texas, there is
some low chances that an isolated storm or two could develop in the
afternoon. Forcing for ascent will be weaker across this region,
with MLCIN in place through the morning. Nonetheless, CIN does
weaken through the early afternoon amid deeply mixed profiles and
steep lapse rates. A supercell or two could pose a risk for large
hail in this region.
..Thornton.. 04/26/2026
Read more
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0236 PM CDT Sun Apr 26 2026
Valid 271200Z - 281200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PARTS OF EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND
THE TEXAS PANHANDLE...
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO INTO
WESTERN TEXAS...
...Southwest and Southern High Plains...
Strong mid-level flow of 55-65 knots will linger over the Southwest
and Southern Plains in the wake of a departing upper-level short
wave, while a surface cyclone presses northeastward into the Upper
Midwest by late Monday. As a result, downslope enhanced drying
within broad west-southwest flow will impact this region Monday,
promoting an enhanced fire weather threat within a persistent dry
fuelscape. West winds of 15-20 mph combined with drier conditions
relative to today (minimum 5-15% RH by peak heating) are most likely
across two corridors in the lee of the Sangre de Cristo Mountains
into the TX Panhandle and downwind of the Sacramento/Guadalupe
Mountains, where Critical Highlights were introduced.
..Williams.. 04/26/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0209 AM CDT Sun Apr 26 2026/
...Synopsis...
Dry and breezy conditions will persist across portions of the
southern High Plains on Monday, supporting another day of Elevated
to Critical fire weather concerns. The upper wave currently
approaching the Southwest is forecast to quickly eject across the
Plains and into the Midwest late Sunday into Monday. As this occurs,
a surface cyclone will migrate into the upper MS River Valley by
Monday evening with a trailing cold front pushing south across the
Southern Plains. Ahead of the front, 15-20 mph westerly winds will
be common across the southern High Plains and into portions of OK
and TX.
Little to no moisture recovery will support another day of 5-15% RH
minimums over a region with dry fuels. Consequently, widespread
elevated fire weather conditions appear likely. Although the primary
synoptic low will be increasingly displaced from the region through
late afternoon, residual strong winds within the boundary layer will
likely support areas of 20-25 mph winds with gusts upwards of 30
mph. Based on latest ensemble guidance, a corridor of sustained 20
mph winds appears likely roughly along portions of the I-40 corridor
from eastern NM into the TX Panhandle. Given this ensemble signal
and some recent fire activity within this corridor, Critical
highlights were introduced.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0417 PM CDT Sun Apr 26 2026
Valid 281200Z - 041200Z
...Synopsis...
A mid-level wave and associated robust jet core will eject into the
southern and central Plains on Day 3/Tuesday. A resultant lee
surface tough evolves across the southern High Plains. The
deep-layer westerly flow will support dry and breezy conditions
across much of NM into western TX Tuesday. A broad upper-level
trough emerges across the eastern U.S. Days 4-5/Wednesday-Thursday
while a surface trough and cold front promote wetting rains for much
of the Appalachians, Mid-Atlantic, Northeast and portions of the
Southeast, reducing fire weather concerns. Farther west, an
upper-level trough, a stalled frontal boundary at the surface and
sufficient atmospheric moisture should promote widespread wetting
rains across portions of the central and southern High Plains
beginning Day 5/Thursday, lasting through Day 6/Friday. Some
locations across the southern and central High Plains have not
observed significant rainfall in the last 4 months where fuels
remain very dry and green up continues to be delayed.
...Day 3/Tuesday - Southern Plains...
A 50-60 knot mid-level jet at the base of a progressive upper-level
wave pushing into the central Plains will reinforce dry and breezy
westerly flow across much of NM and southern High Plains on Day
3/Tuesday, where a broad 40% critical probability area remains. A
drier air mass ushered in by Tuesday should support very low RH
during the day, likely 10% or below, across southeastern NM,
stretching into west TX. Poor RH recoveries tonight and Day 2/Monday
night leading up to Tuesday, should further precondition the
fuelscape to wildfire spread. 70% critical probabilities have been
introduced where forecast confidence is higher in overlap of low RH
and downslope enhanced west winds of 15-25 mph across southeastern
NM into west TX.
..Williams.. 04/26/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
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