RSS Mesoscale Discussions from Storm Prediction Center
No watches are valid as of Thu Nov 27 00:43:01 UTC 2025.
No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Thu Nov 27 00:43:01 UTC 2025.
SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0638 PM CST Wed Nov 26 2025
Valid 270100Z - 271200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
The risk for thunderstorms appears negligible across much of the
nation tonight.
...01Z Update...
...Southern Florida/Keys...
Convection in a small cluster initially centered over interior
southern Florida, generally to the northwest of Greater Miami, has
undergone recent weakening. While occasional lightning persists in
stronger cores, guidance suggests that potential for this continuing
inland and near coastal areas will become increasingly negligible
through 02-03Z.
Otherwise, although more uncertain due to model spread, potential
for scattered convection capable of producing lightning might
increase late tonight near the lower Keys, if an increase in
large-scale ascent is able to overcome inhibition associated with
relatively warm layers aloft.
..Kerr.. 11/27/2025
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SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0316 PM CST Wed Nov 26 2025
Valid 281200Z - 041200Z
Deep upper-level troughing will begin to weaken and move out of the
eastern US Day 3/Friday - Day 4/Saturday. A mid-level shortwave
trough will move east-southeast out of the Rockies this weekend and
likely deepen over the Midwest/Great Lakes with another upper-level
shortwave trough likely following it but with a track more over the
Intermountain West. Ridging will establish and modulate in strength
over the northeast Pacific with generally lower heights/upper-level
troughing over much of the CONUS next week.
...Day 3/Friday: Southern Georgia through Central Florida...
Dry/breezy post-frontal conditions will continue across portions of
Georgia through central Florida Day 3/Friday. RH will likely be
below critical thresholds for much of this area with winds more of
the limiting factor for critical fire weather conditions. Winds are
likely to be more northeasterly across south Florida and on the
eastern half of the Florida Peninsula, which will likely increase RH
above elevated thresholds in these areas. A 40% probability area was
added to reflect the likely elevated fire weather conditions, and it
may need to be expanded farther north-northwest into the Florida
Panhandle and southern Georgia if winds trend stronger in the
forecast and RH remains low.
...Day 4/Saturday: Southeast New Mexico and Southwest Texas...
Some dry/breezy conditions are likely in southeast New Mexico and
southwest Texas ahead of an approaching cold front on Day
4/Saturday. However, recent cool weather and precipitation have
mitigated fuel concerns. The marginal fuel receptiveness and
forecast of only locally elevated/elevated winds/RH preclude
introducing probabilities.
..Nauslar.. 11/26/2025
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
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