RSS Mesoscale Discussions from Storm Prediction Center
No watches are valid as of Sat Feb 21 19:48:01 UTC 2026.
MD 0111 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PARTS OF CENTRAL/SOUTHERN GA INTO SOUTHERN SC
Mesoscale Discussion 0111
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1244 PM CST Sat Feb 21 2026
Areas affected...Parts of central/southern GA into southern SC
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 211844Z - 212115Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent
SUMMARY...Locally damaging wind and perhaps a brief tornado are
possible this afternoon.
DISCUSSION...A small bowing segment has recently become better
organized across parts of east-central GA. Deep-layer flow/shear (as
sampled by the KJGX and KCLX VWPs) remains favorable for organized
convection, and MLCAPE has increased into the 1000-1500 J/kg range
donwstream of this bowing segment, along/south of a cold front.
However, while this bowing segment has taken on a somewhat more
favorable north-south orientation, the front continues to sag
southward immediately ahead of the most organized part of the line.
This may temper severe-wind potential to some extent, though locally
damaging wind remains possible, especially if the ongoing bowing
segment can propagate along (rather than just north of) the front. A
brief tornado also cannot be ruled out if any part of the line can
persistently remain organized and surface-based, though generally
front-parallel flow may continue to favor a general undercutting
trend with time.
..Dean/Hart.. 02/21/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...CHS...CAE...JAX...FFC...TAE...
LAT...LON 31788093 31828320 31668432 31678496 32108494 32308446
32528376 32688303 33068232 32938063 32728006 32158061
31788093
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN
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SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1011 AM CST Sat Feb 21 2026
Valid 211630Z - 221200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE SOUTHEAST STATES THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING....
...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of the
Southeast today into this evening. Damaging wind gusts, large hail,
and perhaps a tornado are the expected hazards.
...Southeast States...
A well-defined surface baroclinic zone extends from southern LA/MS
east-northeastward into parts of AL/GA/SC today. To the south of
the boundary, a rather warm/moist and unstable air mass is present
with dewpoints in the upper 60s and afternoon MLCAPE values of
1000-1500 J/kg. This will lead to occasional thunderstorms along
the boundary through the day and into the evening. Low-level winds
are veered, limiting convergence and vertical shear. However,
occasional small bowing structures will be possible today capable of
gusty or locally damaging wind gusts. Also, modest mid-level lapse
rates and cool temperatures aloft might result in a report or two of
hail. Refer to MCD #110 for further short-term details.
..Hart/Dean.. 02/21/2026
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SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0144 PM CST Sat Feb 21 2026
Valid 212000Z - 221200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST STATES...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong/severe thunderstorms remain possible across parts of
the Southeast this afternoon and evening.
...Southeast States...
Other than trimming risk areas behind the sagging cold front, no
important changes have been made to the ongoing forecast.
..Hart.. 02/21/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1011 AM CST Sat Feb 21 2026/
...Southeast States...
A well-defined surface baroclinic zone extends from southern LA/MS
east-northeastward into parts of AL/GA/SC today. To the south of
the boundary, a rather warm/moist and unstable air mass is present
with dewpoints in the upper 60s and afternoon MLCAPE values of
1000-1500 J/kg. This will lead to occasional thunderstorms along
the boundary through the day and into the evening. Low-level winds
are veered, limiting convergence and vertical shear. However,
occasional small bowing structures will be possible today capable of
gusty or locally damaging wind gusts. Also, modest mid-level lapse
rates and cool temperatures aloft might result in a report or two of
hail. Refer to MCD #110 for further short-term details.
Read more
SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1125 AM CST Sat Feb 21 2026
Valid 221200Z - 231200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms will be possible across portions of the Florida
Peninsula during the day on Sunday. Lightning may also occur across
coastal areas from North Carolina north toward Massachusetts and
over western Washington State. Severe weather potential is low.
...Discussion...
A mid-level trough over the lower Great Lakes is expected to rapidly
intensify as several smaller perturbations merge with the main
trough and western US ridging develops Sunday. A 100+ kt jet streak
will round the base of the trough and move over the Atlantic coast
through midday Sunday. Increasing large-scale ascent will aid in
rapid cyclogenesis off the NC Coast. The resulting mass response
will surge a cold front southward over portions of the FL Peninsula.
Ahead of the front, a narrow ribbon of most-unstable CAPE between
500 and 1000 J/kg should develop with daytime heating ahead of the
southward advancing front. This may support convective showers and a
few thunderstorms Sunday afternoon across portions of central and
southern FL. However, warming/drying mid-levels and the departure of
stronger mid-level forcing for ascent should tend to limit lightning
coverage with southward extent into later Sunday
Across the Carolinas, mid Atlantic and southern New England coasts,
intense surface cyclogenesis will support very strong low-level warm
advection. The strong ascent may result in enough elevated
instability (100-200 J/kg) and intense precipitation rates to
support a few lightning strikes within the warm conveyor belt of the
Nor'easter as the low lifts northward along the coast Sunday night
into early Monday.
Across the West, strong ascent and some moisture advection
associated with another upper-trough may support shallow convection
along and off the coast of the Olympic Peninsula. While coverage
should remain relatively low, cold mid-level temperatures and the
strong ascent could support a few lightning flashes through Sunday
evening.
..Lyons.. 02/21/2026
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SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0118 PM CST Sat Feb 21 2026
Valid 231200Z - 241200Z
...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are not expected across the United States on Monday.
...Synopsis...
Mid-level troughing will intensify rapidly over the Eastern US,
helping deepen a significant surface cyclone off the New England
Coast. At the same time, ridging will build over the western and
central US. As the mid-level pattern amplifies, a strong cold front
associated with the East Coast low will sweep offshore scouring
low-level moisture from much of the continent. In its wake, a cool
and dry air mass will settle over much of the country, suppressing
thunderstorm activity.
..Lyons.. 02/21/2026
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SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1021 AM CST Sat Feb 21 2026
Valid 211700Z - 221200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
Surface observations at 16Z indicate pockets of elevated fire
weather conditions developing across southwest portions of the
Edwards Plateau in Texas. Elevated to locally critical fire weather
conditions are expected to expand in coverage through this evening
across portions of South-Central Texas southward into the Big Bend
region, where sustained surface winds of 10-20 mph and minimum RH
values near 15-20% will overlap receptive fuels. While the latest
high-resolution ensemble guidance continues to suggest near critical
fire weather conditions are possible across southwest portions of
the Edwards Plateau and the South Texas Brush Country, these
conditions appear too brief/spotty to introduce a Critical fire
weather area.
Please see the previous discussion below for more information,
including a discussion on the Elevated fire weather area across
southwest Kansas and the Oklahoma and Texas Panhandles.
..Elliott.. 02/21/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0106 AM CST Sat Feb 21 2026/
...Synopsis...
Dry and breezy post-frontal conditions are forecast today across
much of the Southern Great Plains, with at least Elevated
fire-weather concerns across portions of far southwest Texas as well
as southwest Kansas into the Oklahoma and Texas Panhandles.
...South-Central Texas/Big Bend...
Elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions are forecast
this afternoon, with relative humidity as low as 15-20% and winds of
15-20 MPH. Conditions in the western portion of the outlook area in
the vicinity of Big Bend will tend to be drier and perhaps a little
less windy (10-15 MPH), with the eastern portion in south-central
Texas being more humid and windier (15-20 MPH). A narrow corridor of
locally Critical conditions may exist within the gradient of these
conditions, where the drier air and higher wind speeds overlap with
receptive fuels. However, there was not enough confidence in a large
enough spatial and temporal overlap of these conditions to warrant
additional highlights at this time.
...Southwestern Kansas into Oklahoma and Texas Panhandles...
Though surface temperatures will be relatively cooler this far north
into the post-frontal airmass, daytime heating and mixing is
forecast to raise surface temperatures into the mid-to-upper 40s F.
Forecast profiles across the area are well mixed and very dry, with
surface relative humidity of around 15% and winds of 10-15 MPH.
Given the critically dry fuels across the area and recent wildfire
activity, Elevated highlights have been introduced in this outlook.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
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SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0136 PM CST Sat Feb 21 2026
Valid 221200Z - 231200Z
Elevated to locally critical fire weather conditions are likely
beginning around midday tomorrow (Sunday) and continuing through the
overnight across portions of southern Georgia and the Florida
Peninsula, where dry/breezy post-frontal conditions overlap
receptive fuels. The primary change with this forecast update was to
expand the Elevated fire weather area further south across much of
the remainder of the Florida Peninsula. Here, the latest high
resolution ensemble guidance suggests elevated to locally critical
fire weather conditions are likely from tomorrow evening into Monday
morning due to very poor overnight recoveries and lingering
breeziness. While an upgrade to Critical was considered, confidence
was a bit too low due to the potential for some light rainfall
along/ahead of the front early Sunday.
While elevated to locally critical fire weather meteorological
conditions are also likely across much of the remainder of the
Southeast in a dry and breezy post-frontal environment, wetting
rainfall today/tomorrow associated with the cold front casts
considerable uncertainty on fuel receptiveness in the immediate wake
of the front. Nevertheless, model guidance continues to suggest a
relative minimum in precipitation across portions of Louisiana and
the Mississippi Gulf Coast. With limited precipitation, Elevated to
locally critical fire weather conditions appear likely in these
areas due to sustained winds of 15-20 mph and minimum RH values less
than 35% overlapping receptive fuels.
An expansion of the Elevated areas and/or upgrades to Critical may
be needed across the Southeast once precipitation amounts and
locations are realized.
..Elliott.. 02/21/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0106 AM CST Sat Feb 21 2026/
...Synopsis...
As a cold front moves off the Atlantic/Gulf coasts, dry and breezy
post-frontal conditions are forecast across much of the Southeast on
Sunday. Relative humidity could get as low as 25%-30% across
portions of northern Florida currently experiencing drought, with
winds reaching 15-20 MPH. These conditions will support Elevated
concerns for wildfire ignition and spread during the afternoon
Sunday.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
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