RSS Mesoscale Discussions from Storm Prediction Center
No watches are valid as of Wed Jan 7 07:58:01 UTC 2026.
No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Wed Jan 7 07:58:01 UTC 2026.
SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1136 PM CST Tue Jan 06 2026
Valid 071200Z - 081200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...
...SUMMARY...
Marginally severe storms are possible from late tonight into the
early morning on Thursday from parts of west and northwest Texas
northeastward into Oklahoma.
...West and Northwest Texas/Oklahoma...
A mid-level trough will move quickly east-northeastward from the
eastern Pacific this morning to the southern Plains tonight. Ahead
of the system, a lee surface trough will develop across the High
Plains, as winds become south to southeasterly over much of the
southern Plains. In response, moisture advection will increase over
the southern Plains, as a moist airmass spreads northwestward into
parts of west-central and north-central Texas by midnight. Along the
northwestern edge of this airmass, low-level convergence is forecast
to increase after midnight, which will aid scattered thunderstorm
development during the overnight period. Instability along a
southwest-to-northeast corridor is forecast to remain weak, with
MLCAPE peaking around 500 J/kg. In addition, a low-level capping
inversion just the east of the instability axis will keep much of
the convection elevated. In spite of these negative factors,
effective shear will be in the 40 to 50 knot range, and 700-500 mb
lapse rates are forecast to be between 7.5 and 8 C/km. This
environment could support a marginal severe threat with cells that
rotate. Hail and isolated severe wind gusts will be possible, mainly
in the 08Z to 12Z timeframe.
..Broyles/Squitieri.. 01/07/2026
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SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0100 AM CST Wed Jan 07 2026
Valid 081200Z - 091200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS/ARKLATEX INTO THE LOWER/MID MS VALLEY...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe storms are possible on Thursday from Oklahoma into
parts of the ArkLaTex and lower/mid Mississippi Valley.
...Southern Plains into parts of the ArkLaTex and lower/mid MS
Valley...
A negative-tilt mid/upper-level shortwave trough and associated
surface low will move quickly northeastward from the southern High
Plains towards the Great Lakes on Thursday. This shortwave will
impinge upon increasing low-level moisture and MUCAPE of near/above
500 J/kg from late D1/Wednesday into early D2/Thursday morning,
resulting in thunderstorm development. Deep-layer shear will be
quite favorable, and the strongest morning storms may be capable of
producing localized severe gusts and perhaps some hail. The Marginal
Risk area has been expanded westward across OK and southern KS, with
recent guidance indicating a slightly slower shortwave timing. Most
guidance suggests morning convection may remain slightly elevated,
but low tornado probabilities may eventually be needed if confidence
increases in surface-based storm development from central OK into
southeast KS.
With time, the morning storms will encounter decreasing buoyancy,
but if organized convection can be sustained, then some threat for
localized damaging wind could spread toward the mid MS Valley and
possibly a larger portion of the Midwest and lower OH Valley, in
conjunction with the ejecting shortwave. The northeast extent of
severe potential remains uncertain, with the shortwave expected to
eventually outpace returning low-level moisture.
Farther south, severe potential becomes more conditional from parts
of the ArkLaTex into the Mid-South, with stronger ascent expected to
remain north of this region. While buoyancy will remain weak,
low-level and deep-layer shear will be strong. Guidance remains
inconsistent regarding the development of deep convection in this
region, with the ECMWF and RRFS being somewhat more aggressive,
while other guidance is generally more muted. If robust convection
can develop within this environment, then some threat for locally
damaging wind and possibly a tornado could evolve from late
afternoon into part of Thursday night.
...Arizona...
Thunderstorm potential is expected to increase through the day
across parts of AZ, as a midlevel shortwave trough moves
east-southeastward across the region. Gusty winds and/or small hail
could occur with the strongest convection, though buoyancy is
currently expected to remain too meager for an organized severe
threat.
..Dean.. 01/07/2026
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SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0156 AM CST Wed Jan 07 2026
Valid 071200Z - 081200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
...Synopsis...
A mid-level trough will eject into the southern Plains today,
resulting in surface lee troughing and associated downslope across
the High Plains during the afternoon hours. RH should dip to or just
below 20 percent by afternoon peak heating, from western Texas to
the Nebraska Panhandle. Pockets of occasional 15 mph sustained
west-southwesterly surface winds may overlap with the aforementioned
RH across parts of the Texas and Nebraska Panhandles, promoting
locally Elevated conditions. Otherwise, surface conditions should
remain generally below Elevated criteria over much of the southern
High Plains.
..Squitieri.. 01/07/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
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