RSS Mesoscale Discussions from Storm Prediction Center
No watches are valid as of Sat Feb 7 17:51:02 UTC 2026.
No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Sat Feb 7 17:51:02 UTC 2026.
SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1019 AM CST Sat Feb 07 2026
Valid 071630Z - 081200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not forecast through tonight.
...Synopsis...
Recent satellite imagery shows a well-defined upper low centered
just west of northern Baja Peninsula. This imagery also shows a
low-amplitude shortwave trough ejecting northeastward ahead of this
low towards the Southwest US. Some showers are already ongoing
across southwest NM ahead of this shortwave, and the expectation is
that precipitation coverage, and perhaps intensity, will increase
throughout the afternoon as lift and low/mid-level moisture also
increase ahead of the approaching shortwave. The increasing
low/mid-level moisture combined with cooling mid-level temperatures
will support modest buoyancy, and the potential for a few
thunderstorms, largely during the late afternoon across southeast AZ
and southwest NM.
Farther east, expansive high pressure will cover much of the CONUS
from the MS Valley eastward, promoting dry and stable conditions.
Lee troughing is anticipated over the High Plains with modest
cyclogenesis yielding a weak low that then moves across NE/SD
tonight. Dry and stable conditions here will preclude thunderstorms
as well.
..Mosier/Halbert.. 02/07/2026
Read more
SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1129 AM CST Sat Feb 07 2026
Valid 081200Z - 091200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Sunday.
...Discussion...
Mid-level ridging will deamplify across the western CONUS on Sunday
as a mid-level trough moves across the Pacific Northwest. In the
wake of the surface cold front/surface low, cooling temperatures
aloft will lead to weak convective destabilization. A few lightning
flashes are possible late Sunday evening into early Sunday morning
across western Oregon and southwest Washington.
Beneath this ridge, an upper-low will move east across northern
Mexico. Some of the cold air aloft on the northern periphery of this
surface low may overspread southeast Arizona and southwest New
Mexico with some weak instability developing. Scattered to
widespread storms are likely across much of northern Mexico. A few
of these storms may spread into southern Arizona and southwest New
Mexico.
East of the Rockies, a dry airmass and high pressure will keep
conditions stable and limit thunderstorm activity.
..Bentley.. 02/07/2026
Read more
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1053 AM CST Sat Feb 07 2026
Valid 071700Z - 081200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN WYOMING
NORTHERN COLORADO AND THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE...
...Northern Rockies...
Westerly flow over parts of the northern Rockies will continue today
as downslope winds increase to 15-25 mph in spots over parts of
central MT. However, increasing cloud cover is also expected to
limit afternoon RH minimums. This should keep fire-weather concerns
more localized despite unusually dry fuels and the increase in
surface winds.
...Central High Plains...
Minor changes were made to the Critical Area over parts of CO and
WY. Morning observations show downslope flow and partial clearing
over the Plains farther east. Poor overnight humidity recoveries
(below 30%) will allow for deep mixing today as RH falls further
this afternoon. Wind gusts of 20-30 mph are likely from southeastern
WY into western NE and northern CO. This should support a few hours
of critical conditions given dry fuels over parts of the High
Plains.
Otherwise, see the prior outlook for additional information.
..Lyons.. 02/07/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0111 AM CST Sat Feb 07 2026/
...Synopsis...
Upper ridging will generally prevail across the Plains states as a
mid-level trough ejects into the Atlantic and a cut-off upper low
meanders eastward over the Baja Peninsula today. An embedded
mid-level impulse will traverse the upper ridge over the central
Rockies, supporting surface lee troughing over the High Plains
region.
Across the central High Plains corridor, guidance consensus depicts
widespread 20+ mph sustained west-northwesterly surface winds with
downslope flow for at least a few hours during the afternoon. By
peak heating, RH may decrease to 15 percent along the
Colorado/Wyoming/Nebraska border. When considering dry fuels with
the aforementioned stronger sustained winds in this area, Critical
highlights appear warranted.
Farther south across northeastern New Mexico into the northern Texas
Panhandle, downslope flow will support 15+ mph sustained
west-southwesterly surface winds amid 20-25 percent RH for at least
a few hours this afternoon. Such conditions warrant the maintenance
of Elevated highlights given at least marginally dry fuels over the
southern High Plains.
Dry air will overspread the Florida Peninsula in association with
the reinforcement of surface high pressure over the eastern CONUS.
RH may dip below 30 percent over much of the peninsula, with lower
values possible locally. Surface wind fields are expected to be
relatively weak, precluding fire weather highlights this outlook.
Still, the dry air and receptive fuels will promote localized
wildfire-spread potential.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
|
