RSS Mesoscale Discussions from Storm Prediction Center
No watches are valid as of Fri Feb 27 10:26:02 UTC 2026.
No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Fri Feb 27 10:26:02 UTC 2026.
SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1256 AM CST Fri Feb 27 2026
Valid 281200Z - 011200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms will be possible across the Florida Peninsula, and
from parts of northern California into southern Oregon on Saturday.
Additional thunderstorms will be possible across the Southern Plains
Saturday evening into early Sunday morning.
...Florida...
A mid-level trough will be located in the eastern Gulf at the start
of the period. Ahead of the trough, scattered thunderstorms are
expected to be ongoing over parts of the southern and central
Florida Peninsula, ahead of a cold front. Surface dewpoints in the
mid to upper 60s F with MLCAPE in the 1000 to 1500 J/kg range may
support a few strong thunderstorms during the early to mid
afternoon. Convective coverage is expected to gradually decrease by
early evening as the trough passes through the southern Florida
Peninsula.
...Oklahoma/Northern Texas...
Northwesterly flow at mid-levels will be in place over the southern
Plains on Saturday. At the surface, a low will be present over
northwest Texas, as a cold front moves southeastward across parts of
Oklahoma into the Ozarks. To the south of the front, flow will be
southerly from central and east Texas into southern Oklahoma. As
moisture advection occurs during the afternoon and evening, surface
dewpoints will increase into the lower to mid 50s F across a narrow
corridor from north-central Texas into central and northeast
Oklahoma. Isolated thunderstorms are expected to develop near the
front along the moist axis during the late evening in northeast
Oklahoma. As a subtle shortwave trough moves across the southern
Plains overnight, a few storms may also develop further south across
central and southern Oklahoma. Although hail will be possible with
the stronger updrafts, the convection appears likely to remain below
severe limits.
...Northern California/Southern Oregon...
A mid-level low and an associated trough will move eastward toward
the West Coast on Saturday. At the surface, surface dewpoints across
the Sacramento Valley will be in the mid 50s F. Warming surface
temperatures during the day should result in MLCAPE peaking around
500 J/kg. As large-scale ascent increases ahead of the approaching
trough over northern California, isolated thunderstorm development
will be possible in parts of the Sacramento Valley in the afternoon.
The instability combined with steepening low-level lapse rates could
support a strong thunderstorm or two.
..Broyles.. 02/27/2026
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SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0153 AM CST Fri Feb 27 2026
Valid 011200Z - 021200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms will be possible on Sunday across parts of south
Florida, the southern and central Plains, and in northern
California.
...DISCUSSION...
A subtle mid-level trough is forecast to move eastward across the
Florida Peninsula on Sunday, as a diffuse cold front stalls in
south-central Florida. Thunderstorms will be possible near the front
in the afternoon. Further west into the southern and central Plains,
thunderstorms will be possible as surface temperatures warm during
the day near and to the north of a front from parts of Oklahoma
northward into Kansas and southwest Missouri. Finally, isolated
diurnal storms will also be possible on Sunday in parts of northern
California. No severe threat is expected across the continental U.S.
Sunday and Sunday night.
..Broyles.. 02/27/2026
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Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0359 AM CST Fri Feb 27 2026
Valid 021200Z - 071200Z
...DISCUSSION...
...Monday/Day 4 to Tuesday/Day 5...
At mid-levels, a trough is forecast to move across California on
Monday as zonal flow remains in place over the central and eastern
U.S. On Tuesday, the trough is forecast to move eastward across the
Desert Southwest, as flow becomes southwesterly in the south-central
states. A moist airmass will likely be in place on Monday and
Tuesday from eastern parts of the southern Plains into the lower to
mid Mississippi Valley. Thunderstorm development will be possible
each afternoon and evening across parts of the moist airmass. In
areas that destabilize the most, a marginal severe threat may
develop.
...Wednesday/Day 6 to Friday/Day 8...
On Wednesday, the trough is forecast to move into the southern and
central High Plains, as an associated mid-level jet ejects
northeastward across the southern High Plains. At the surface, a
cold front is forecast to move into the southern Plains, as a moist
airmass spreads northward from north Texas into southern and eastern
Oklahoma. As surface temperatures warm during the day, thunderstorms
appear most likely to form along the cold front, and further south
across parts of the warm sector. Moderate deep-layer shear is
evident on model forecasts which should support a severe threat
during the afternoon and evening, with a potential for large hail
and severe wind gusts. While confidence is high enough to add a
severe threat area across the southern Plains, variance does exist
concerning the timing of the shortwave trough. If the trough moves
across the southern Plains faster, then the area could need to be
adjusted.
On Thursday, the mid-level trough is forecast to eject northeastward
into the Great Lakes region, as a large upper-level trough digs into
the Desert Southwest. Southwesterly mid-level flow will likely be in
place over parts of the Great Plains, with a moist and unstable
airmass remaining over much of Texas and Oklahoma. As surface
temperatures warm, isolated strong to severe storms will be possible
in areas that destabilize the most. At this time, there is
uncertainty regarding the magnitude of the threat because some
solutions move a shortwave ridge northeastward across the
south-central U.S.
On Friday, model forecasts suggest that a large-scale upper-level
trough will move through the western U.S. Ahead of this feature,
thunderstorms will continue to be possible over parts of the
southern and central Plains, where a moist and unstable airmass is
forecast to be in place. However, a significant amount of variance
exists among the model solutions, suggesting that uncertainty is
substantial concerning the magnitude and spacing of any severe
threat.
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SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0132 AM CST Fri Feb 27 2026
Valid 271200Z - 281200Z
...Synopsis...
Mid-level ridging will remain in place across the western CONUS with
northwesterly mid-level flow downstream of this feature. This will
support another day of dry, downslope flow in the lee of the Rockies
ahead of a southward surging cold front.
...Portions of eastern Wyoming into northeastern Colorado and the
Nebraska Panhandle...
Strong northwesterly flow in the mid-levels will lead to the
enhancement of lee troughing across the central and northern High
Plains as high pressure builds to the West. This will support a
strong cross-terrain pressure gradient that will yield dry downslope
flow in the lee of the central Rockies and Laramie Range, with
sustained surface winds of 15-25 mph and isolated gusts of 35-45 mph
expected (locally higher in terrain-favored areas). Deep, boundary
layer mixing coupled with the dry downslope flow will simultaneously
favor afternoon RH values falling into the 15-20% range (locally as
low as 10%). With multiple days of strong, dry downslope winds
preceding D1/Friday, fuels are expected to be receptive to fire.
Given these factors, elevated to locally critical fire weather
conditions are likely for at least a few hours across portions of
eastern Wyoming into the Nebraska Panhandle and southward toward the
Palmer Divide this afternoon.
...Portions of central into east-central New Mexico...
Lower RH values of 10-15% are likely to extend farther south into
portions of southeastern New Mexico and western Texas; however,
winds are expected to remain light. The one exception will be across
portions of central into east-central New Mexico where a band of
modest northwesterly mid-level flow will support dry, downslope
winds in the lee of the Sandia Manzano Mountains. Sustained westerly
surface winds of 15-20 mph are expected to overlap very low RH
values of 10-20% for at least a few hours this afternoon. Given
warm, dry antecedent conditions, this overlap is expected to support
Elevated fire weather conditions this afternoon.
...Northern Plains into the Midwest...
A southward advancing surface cold front will promote a strong
surface pressure gradient across portions of the northern Plains
into the western Corn Belt this afternoon. Widespread 20-30 mph
sustained northwesterly surface winds ahead of this front are
expected to overlap RH values of 20-30%. Farther south and east,
lighter southwesterly winds of 10-20 mph are expected to overlap RH
of 20-30% ahead of a surface pressure trough from southwestern
Missouri into western Illinois. Given that fuels are expected to be
only modestly receptive across the region, Elevated fire weather
concerns should remain localized.
..Chalmers/Lyons.. 02/27/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
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SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0135 AM CST Fri Feb 27 2026
Valid 281200Z - 011200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
...Synopsis...
Longwave mid-level troughing centered over eastern Canada will
gradually shift eastward through Day 2/Saturday, yielding weakening
flow aloft across much of the central/northern High Plains
downstream of mid-level ridging across the Southwest. Meanwhile, a
surface cold front will surge southward across the central Great
Plains.
...Portions of southeastern Wyoming...
Continuing northwesterly flow across the central/northern Rockies
will support another day of dry, downslope flow in the lee of the
Laramie Range. Compared to prior days, however, weakening mid-level
flow will support only a localized area of stronger sustained
surface winds of 15-25 mph (locally higher in terrain favored
areas). Meanwhile, RH values are not expected to drop quite as low
as previous days, with most guidance depicting min RH values of
15-25% for only a brief period of time. Given the weakening
upper-level support and expectation for only a localized corridor of
higher sustained surface winds to briefly overlap low RH values,
elevated fire weather conditions are likely to remain localized.
...Portions of the Florida Peninsula...
Dry fuels amid persistent drought across the Florida Peninsula may
heighten localized fire weather concerns as scattered thunderstorms
pass through the region on Day 1/Friday into Day 2/Saturday. Areas
that do not see sufficient rainfall may see potential ignitions from
lightning interacting with areas of drier fuels.
..Chalmers/Lyons.. 02/27/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
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