RSS Mesoscale Discussions from Storm Prediction Center
No watches are valid as of Fri Dec 12 09:22:01 UTC 2025.
No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Fri Dec 12 09:22:01 UTC 2025.
SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1152 PM CST Thu Dec 11 2025
Valid 121200Z - 131200Z
...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are not forecast across the U.S. today or tonight.
...DISCUSSION...
Mid-level northwesterly flow will remain in place across most of the
U.S. today and tonight, as a trough moves southeastward into the
Great Lakes region. At the surface, a cold front will move southward
into the south-central U.S., as a cold airmass moves into the
northern states. Overall, conditions will remain dry over most of
the nation today and tonight, eliminating any chance for
thunderstorms.
..Broyles.. 12/12/2025
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SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1159 PM CST Thu Dec 11 2025
Valid 131200Z - 141200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated weak thunderstorm activity is possible across South Florida
and the Keys Saturday afternoon into Saturday night.
...Synopsis...
The large-scale pattern on Saturday will feature a ridge across the
western CONUS with troughing across the east. This mid-level trough
will amplify on Saturday as a strong mid-level jet streak moves from
the northern Plains to the Midwest. At the surface, a cold front
will sharpen from the Ohio Valley to the Plains and move south
rapidly Saturday evening.
...South Florida...
Tropical moisture will start to advect northward across the southern
Florida Peninsula on Friday. If this advects far enough north during
the day, a few thunderstorms may be possible on the eastern sea
breeze. During the overnight period, storm chances will increase
across the western Florida Peninsula as a mid-level shortwave trough
traverses the Gulf. Limited instability should preclude any severe
weather threat from this activity.
Shallow convection may develop along the southward moving cold front
from southeast Texas to central Alabama late Saturday night, but
warm temperatures aloft should limit lightning potential.
..Bentley.. 12/12/2025
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SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0211 AM CST Fri Dec 12 2025
Valid 141200Z - 151200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
A few storms are possible across South Florida and the Florida Keys
on Sunday.
...Synopsis...
A mid-level trough will advance from the Great Lakes to the western
Atlantic on Sunday. To the west, a ridge will remain centered across
the western CONUS. On the eastern periphery of this ridge, a
secondary mid-level shortwave trough will move into the Upper
Midwest. A very strong (1040mb+) area of high pressure will build
into the eastern 2/3rds of the CONUS Sunday and push a strong cold
front into the Gulf by Sunday evening.
...South Florida...
A weak mid-level shortwave trough will approach the west coast of
Florida on Sunday morning. As this trough advances east, isolated to
widely scattered thunderstorms are possible across far south
Florida. Weak lapse rates should limit storm intensity overall.
Storms should wane by the evening as the boundary layer cools and
northerly flow strengthens and brings cooler, drier air by Sunday
night.
..Bentley.. 12/12/2025
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Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0319 AM CST Fri Dec 12 2025
Valid 151200Z - 201200Z
...DISCUSSION...
Strong high pressure will dominate the eastern CONUS on Monday with
offshore flow across then entire Gulf Coast and East Coast. This
dry, continental polar airmass across the eastern CONUS will result
in no thunderstorms east of the Rockies on Monday and Tuesday. Some
thunderstorms are possible along the coastal Pacific Northwest where
some weak instability may be present.
By the middle of next week, moisture return should resume across
Texas. This may result in some thunderstorm activity by early
Wednesday in the east Texas vicinity. Beyond Wednesday, model
uncertainty increases substantially. However, severe potential will
still remain too low as even the most favorable mid-long range
guidance indicates minimal instability and low severe weather
threat.
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SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1139 PM CST Thu Dec 11 2025
Valid 121200Z - 131200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
...Synopsis...
A broad, low-amplitude upper trough will be positioned from the
northern Plains into the East today. In the West, a stationary upper
ridge will be present. Cooler surface temperatures will exist across
much of the CONUS east of the Divide. A modest cold front will push
into the southern High Plains. Locally dry and breezy conditions can
be expected in portions of the South Plains/Permian Basin. RH
reductions will be rather marginal as will fuel dryness, precluding
highlights.
..Wendt.. 12/12/2025
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
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SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1140 PM CST Thu Dec 11 2025
Valid 131200Z - 141200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
...Synopsis...
On Saturday, an upper shortwave trough is expected to amplify in the
northern Plains/Upper Midwest. This will push colder air southward.
Some increase in mid-level winds will occur in the central High
Plains into parts of the northern Rockies. A modest surface low will
develop/evolve southward within the High Plains. Dry and breezy
conditions are probable in eastern Colorado into northeast New
Mexico. Locally elevated meteorological conditions will be possible
at least briefly over generally unreceptive fuels. Winds will be
westerly/northwesterly but shift to northerly through the day as the
surface low/cold front moves southward. Colder air will lag the
shift to northerly winds.
..Wendt.. 12/12/2025
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
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