RSS Mesoscale Discussions from Storm Prediction Center
No watches are valid as of Thu May 14 11:03:02 UTC 2026.
No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Thu May 14 11:03:02 UTC 2026.
SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook CORR 1
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0245 AM CDT Thu May 14 2026
Valid 161200Z - 171200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE LOWER TO MID MISSOURI VALLEY...
CORRECTED FOR WORDING
...SUMMARY...
Severe storms capable of large to very large hail, wind damage and
tornadoes will be possible Saturday afternoon and evening across
parts of the central Plains and lower to mid Missouri Valley.
Hailstones up to 3 inches in diameter and a strong tornado will be
possible.
...Central Plains/Lower to Mid Missouri Valley...
An upper-level trough will dig southeastward into the western U.S.
on Saturday, as mid-level flow becomes southwesterly over the
central states. At the surface, a low will deepen in the central
High Plains, as a moist airmass remains in place from the southern
and central Plains eastward into the Mississippi Valley. A shortwave
trough is forecast to move into the central High Plains Saturday
afternoon. Ahead of the trough, thunderstorms are expected to form
in far eastern Colorado during the mid to late afternoon. These
storms are forecast to expand in coverage and move eastward across
the central Plains in the late afternoon and early evening, where
severe storm development will be possible.
By late afternoon, an axis of moderate to strong instability is
forecast from west-central Kansas east-northeastward across northern
Kansas, southeast Nebraska into far northwestern Missouri. Forecast
soundings near this axis of instability in far northern Kansas at
00Z, have MLCAPE in the 3000 to 4000 J/kg range with 0-6 km shear
around 50 knots, and 700-500 mb lapse rates near 8 C/km. This
environment will be favorable for supercells with large to very
large hail. The more intense supercell updrafts may be capable of
hailstones up to 3 inches in diameter. By early evening, a 40 to 50
knot low-level jet is forecast to develop from northwest Oklahoma
into southern Kansas. At this time, NAM forecast soundings increase
0-3 km storm-relative helicity into the 300 to 400 m2/s2 range
across parts of northern Kansas. However, other model solutions keep
this low-level jet further south in the early evening, suggesting
there is uncertainty concerning severe threat coverage and
magnitude. At this time, there does appears to be potential for
tornadoes, and possibly a strong tornado. This would be the case if
the more aggressive solutions with the low-level jet pan out. Severe
wind gusts will also be possible with supercells. During the
evening, the current thinking is that a severe convective cluster
will move east-northeastward from the central Plains into the lower
to mid Missouri Valley, where large hail and severe wind gusts will
be possible.
...Mid Mississippi and Ohio Valleys...
West to west-southwest mid-level flow will be in place from the
Great Lakes southward into the Ohio Valley on Saturday. A subtle
shortwave trough is forecast to move eastward into the mid
Mississippi Valley. Ahead of the trough, low-level moisture
advection will take place, with surface dewpoints likely increasing
into the mid 60s F over much of Illinois, Indiana and Ohio.
Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop in the late
afternoon along the leading edge of the shortwave trough, with
storms moving eastward across the region during the evening.
Moderate deep-layer shear is forecast over an unstable airmass with
steep lapse rates. This should support an isolated severe threat
with damaging wind gusts and hail possible.
..Broyles.. 05/14/2026
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Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0401 AM CDT Thu May 14 2026
Valid 171200Z - 221200Z
...SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK POSSIBLE ON D4/SUN...D5/MON...
...DISCUSSION...
...Sunday/Day 4 and Monday/Day 5...
An upper-level trough is forecast to move eastward across the
Intermountain West on Sunday, as a subtle shortwave trough moves
northeastward across the Great Plains. Ahead of the trough a moist
and unstable airmass is forecast across much of the Great Plains
eastward into the Mississippi Valley. Scattered elevated strong
thunderstorms will be possible early in the day from the northern
Plains eastward into the upper Mississippi Valley. Southward into
the central Plains and mid Missouri Valley, strong surface heating
is forecast. Some models suggest MLCAPE could peak in the 3000 to
4000 J/kg range. In addition, a broad 40 to 50 knot low-level jet is
forecast to strengthen late Sunday afternoon. This, combined with
moderate to strong deep-layer shear over much of the moist sector
will be favorable for severe storms potentially over a large area. A
severe weather outbreak will be possible from the afternoon and
evening into the early overnight period. The setup appears favorable
for supercells with tornadoes, large to very large hail and wind
damage.
On Monday, model forecasts eject a negatively-tilted upper-level
trough into the central Plains. Ahead of the trough, a moist and
unstable airmass is forecast to be located from the southern and
central Plains northeastward into the Upper Midwest. A mid-level jet
is forecast to also eject northeastward across the central Plains as
a broad low-level jet strengthens during the late afternoon.
Thunderstorm development is expected along the western edge of the
airmass near a dryline over west-central Kansas and southeast
Nebraska. Thunderstorms that move into the strong low-level flow in
the late afternoon and early evening will have potential to be
supercells with large to very large hail, and tornadoes. Severe wind
gusts will also be possible. A severe weather outbreak will be
possible from Monday afternoon into evening and overnight period.
...Tuesday/Day 6 to Thursday/Day 8...
On Tuesday, mid-level southwesterly flow is forecast over the
central U.S., with a cold front moving southeastward through the
central Plains and Upper Midwest. Ahead of this front, surface
dewpoints from the mid 60s to the lower 70s F are expected to
contribute to moderate to strong instability. Thunderstorm
development with a severe threat will be possible along and ahead of
the front during the afternoon and evening from the northern part of
the southern Plains northeastward into the mid Mississippi Valley.
On Wednesday and Thursday, the cold front is forecast to move slowly
southeastward across the southern Plains and mid Mississippi Valley,
extending east-northeastward into the Mid-Atlantic. A severe threat
could develop along and ahead of the front each afternoon and
evening. However, uncertainty concerning the exact location of the
front is substantial at this extended range.
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