RSS Mesoscale Discussions from Storm Prediction Center
No watches are valid as of Mon Dec 1 12:37:01 UTC 2025.
No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Mon Dec 1 12:37:01 UTC 2025.
SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0224 AM CST Mon Dec 01 2025
Valid 031200Z - 041200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are possible over southeast Texas into Louisiana on
Wednesday into early Thursday morning. The chance for severe
thunderstorms currently appears very low.
...Synopsis...
Broad upper troughing will gradually deepen over the central and
eastern CONUS through the day Wednesday, resulting in widespread
surface high pressure overspreading most of the CONUS. Static
stability accompanying this widespread surface high pressure should
limit thunderstorm development over most locales. The one exception
will be portions of southeast TX into LA, where low-level lee
troughing ahead of the upper trough will support the development of
a southwesterly low-level jet. Warm-air advection will support both
elevated buoyancy and ascent for thunderstorm development through
the day Wednesday into early Thursday morning. If a more appreciable
surface-based airmass can advect inland, a couple of severe storms
cannot be ruled out. However, the confidence in this scenario is
currently too low for the introduction of severe probabilities.
..Squitieri.. 12/01/2025
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Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0237 AM CST Mon Dec 01 2025
Valid 041200Z - 091200Z
...DISCUSSION...
A series of progressive mid-level troughs, embedded in broader
west-northwest to east-southeast flow aloft, will aid in reinforcing
multiple rounds of surface high pressure across most of the CONUS,
with static stability limiting thunderstorm development over most
locales. There is the chance that ahead of some of the high pressure
surges that some low-level moisture could advect inland from the
Gulf. Should this occur, at least isolated to scattered
thunderstorms will be possible. Compared to earlier medium-range
guidance, some of the most recent guidance has diverged in agreement
of a more robustly buoyant airmass advecting inland through this
weekend into early next week. As such, it currently does not appear
that an organized severe threat will materialize in the Days 4-8
period.
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