RSS Mesoscale Discussions from Storm Prediction Center
WW 309 SEVERE TSTM IL IN 110125Z - 110600Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 309
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
825 PM CDT Wed Jun 10 2026
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of
Eastern Illinois
West-Central into North-Central Indiana
* Effective this Wednesday night and Thursday morning from 825 PM
until 100 AM CDT.
* Primary threats include...
Scattered damaging wind gusts to 65 mph possible
Isolated large hail events to 1 inch in diameter possible
SUMMARY...A squall line will progress eastward into the Watch with a
risk for damaging straight-line gusts being the primary hazard into
the early overnight.
The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 45
statute miles east and west of a line from 80 miles north northeast
of Danville IL to 10 miles southeast of Champaign IL. For a complete
depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update
(WOUS64 KWNS WOU9).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.
&&
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 303...WW 305...WW
306...WW 307...WW 308...
AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
1 inch. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 55 knots. A few
cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 400. Mean storm motion vector
27035.
...Smith
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WW 0309 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 309
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SE MMO TO
45 E MMO TO 15 WNW VPZ.
..LYONS..06/11/26
ATTN...WFO...ILX...LOT...IWX...IND...
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 309
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ILC019-053-075-147-183-110340-
IL
. ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CHAMPAIGN FORD IROQUOIS
PIATT VERMILION
INC007-017-049-073-111-131-171-181-110340-
IN
. INDIANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BENTON CASS FULTON
JASPER NEWTON PULASKI
WARREN WHITE
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
Read more
WW 0308 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 308
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SSE MLI
TO 30 SSE MMO.
..LYONS..06/11/26
ATTN...WFO...DVN...ILX...LOT...
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 308
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ILC017-039-057-095-107-113-125-129-143-169-179-203-110340-
IL
. ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CASS DE WITT FULTON
KNOX LOGAN MCLEAN
MASON MENARD PEORIA
SCHUYLER TAZEWELL WOODFORD
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
Read more
WW 0307 Status Updates
Read more
WW 0306 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 306
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 S MIE TO
30 WNW FDY.
WW 306 WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 110300Z.
..LYONS..06/11/26
ATTN...WFO...IWX...IND...GRR...APX...
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 306
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
INC001-075-110300-
IN
. INDIANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ADAMS JAY
MIC113-143-110300-
MI
. MICHIGAN COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
MISSAUKEE ROSCOMMON
OHC161-110300-
OH
. OHIO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
VAN WERT
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WW 0305 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 305
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NNE IRK
TO 35 N PIA.
..LYONS..06/11/26
ATTN...WFO...DVN...LSX...
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 305
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ILC001-009-067-071-109-149-187-110340-
IL
. ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ADAMS BROWN HANCOCK
HENDERSON MCDONOUGH PIKE
WARREN
MOC045-103-111-127-137-173-199-205-110340-
MO
. MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CLARK KNOX LEWIS
MARION MONROE RALLS
SCOTLAND SHELBY
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
Read more
WW 0303 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 303
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SW SLN TO
30 WSW TOP TO 30 NE EMP TO 20 NNW CNU.
..LYONS..06/11/26
ATTN...WFO...DMX...OAX...EAX...TOP...ICT...
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 303
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
IAC007-051-053-117-123-135-179-185-110340-
IA
. IOWA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
APPANOOSE DAVIS DECATUR
LUCAS MAHASKA MONROE
WAPELLO WAYNE
KSC017-031-061-079-111-113-115-127-139-159-177-197-110340-
KS
. KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CHASE COFFEY GEARY
HARVEY LYON MCPHERSON
MARION MORRIS OSAGE
RICE SHAWNEE WABAUNSEE
MOC001-061-075-079-081-115-117-121-129-171-197-211-227-110340-
MO
. MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
Read more
MD 1081 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 309... FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND EAST-CENTRAL ILLINOIS INTO WESTERN INDIANA.
Mesoscale Discussion 1081
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1200 AM CDT Thu Jun 11 2026
Areas affected...Portions of central and east-central Illinois into
western Indiana.
Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 309...
Valid 110500Z - 110630Z
The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 309
continues.
SUMMARY...Isolated damaging wind gusts will persist for a few more
hours.
DISCUSSION...A line of storms continues east across central
Illinois. This line of storms has a history of wind damage and shows
strong outbound winds from KILX. Expect this line of storms to
persist eastward into a moderately unstable airmass (2000 to 2500
J/kg MUCAPE per SPC mesoanalysis) with a strengthening low-level jet
feeding this activity from the southwest. This line of storms will
likely pose a continued damaging wind threat for a few more hours
before eventually weakening. Severe thunderstorm watch 309 has been
expanded eastward/southeastward to cover this continued threat.
..Bentley.. 06/11/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...IND...LOT...ILX...LSX...
LAT...LON 39589021 39919034 40048981 40288921 40618883 40678829
40538764 40118698 39698697 39038722 38948776 39088857
39308941 39589021
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN
Read more
SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0819 PM CDT Wed Jun 10 2026
Valid 110100Z - 111200Z
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO PARTS OF THE PLAINS...
...SUMMARY...
Scattered to numerous severe thunderstorms with potential for large
hail, a couple of tornadoes and damaging winds with gusts over 75
mph will continue this evening across parts of the Upper Mississippi
Valley and Midwest.
...Synopsis...
A cold front extends from portions of the upper Midwest into the
central Plains, with a surface low over Manitoba. Several lines and
clusters of severe thunderstorms continue along and ahead of this
feature across portions of the Great Lakes into the Midwest and
central/southern Plains. The risk for damaging wind, large hail, and
a couple of tornadoes will continue into the evening across these
regions extending into the Ohio Valley overnight.
...Central Kansas, northwest Missouri and Iowa...
Widespread thunderstorm development continues across central Kansas
into central Iowa along the cold front. Initial development is
supercelluar and pose a risk for large hail, damaging wind, and
perhaps a tornado. Linear forcing along the front will likely lead
to upscale growth, with the primary threat becoming damaging wind.
Ongoing convection further west into southern Iowa/northwest
Missouri is remaining a mixed-mode of supercells and multi-cell
clusters. Within this area, strong instability and deep layer shear
may continue to pose a risk for a tornado or two while storm mode
remains semi-discrete. The 10% tornado risk and 30% hail risk areas
were removed with this update given the tendency for more linear
storm modes.
...Eastern Nebraska/far western Iowa and northern Illinois...
Latest forecast guidance continues to show a signal for elevated
convection near the terminus of a low-level jet across eastern
NE/western IA late tonight/early Thursday morning. Forecast
soundings from these solutions, most notably recent RAP runs and the
NAM, hint that low-level moisture advection may be sufficient to
support parcels rooted near the surface. Initial thunderstorms may
pose a risk for hail before growing upscale into a damaging MCS into
the end of the current D1 period tomorrow morning. A 30% wind area
was introduced into southeastern Nebraska/southern Iowa in support
of recent HRRR runs which show potential for a swath of damaging
wind across far eastern Nebraska into southern Iowa.
..Thornton.. 06/11/2026
Read more
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1240 AM CDT Thu Jun 11 2026
Valid 111200Z - 121200Z
...Synopsis...
A compact upper trough will exit the Great Basin region this
afternoon, traversing the High Plains and moving over the Upper
Midwest in the late evening. A surface low will develop
northeastward to the Great Lakes region and send a cold front
southward through the southern Plains. An amplifying upper ridge
over the eastern Pacific will promote warm and dry conditions across
the Interior West, though much lighter winds (compared to previous
days) will bring some relief to the fire environment. However, very
dry fuels will continue to support Elevated fire concerns.
...Four Corners, southern Colorado Rockies and adjacent High
Plains...
As the upper trough and attendant surface low exit the region,
surface troughing over the Four Corners and Colorado Plateau will
support westerly winds up to 15 mph amid 10-15% RH. In the wake of a
cold front, veering north-easterly 15-20 mph winds (gusts up to 30
mph) and RH values of 10-20% will spread across portions of the
southern Rockies and adjacent High Plains. Elevated highlights have
been maintained to account for these conditions where dry fuels
exist. Latest forecast guidance also shows elevated wind/RH
spreading farther east over portions of the central High Plains.
However, recent rainfall and resultant sub-critical fuels preclude
an expansion of highlights. Briefly critical conditions are possible
across northern NM and portions of the CO Plains and gap-flow
regions, but the localized extent and limited duration of stronger
winds precludes critical highlights.
...Sacramento Valley...
Current northerly winds of 10-15 mph will persist with very poor
humidity recoveries (RH values of 20-30% overnight). As an upper
ridge over the eastern Pacific pushes the upper trough eastward,
northwesterly flow aloft will weaken and shift more westerly.
Northerly surface winds will gradually decrease throughout the
afternoon, however fire concerns remain as 10-15% RH lingers into
the evening. An extended burning period and dry fine fuels support
Elevated highlights within the Valley and adjacent foothills.
..Elizalde-Garcia.. 06/11/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1241 AM CDT Thu Jun 11 2026
Valid 121200Z - 131200Z
...Synopsis...
As ridging builds over the Pacific Northwest, broad upper-level
troughing will extend across the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes
regions. A shortwave trough will move into the northern Rockies
Friday afternoon with increasing mid-level westerly flow ushering
low RH and gusty winds through the Snake River Plain. Enhanced zonal
flow over the CO Rockies and south-central WY will promote gusty
winds and downslope drying amid warm daytime temperatures,
continuing a broader fire weather threat where fuels approach
critical thresholds.
...Upper Colorado River Basin, Central Rockies, and southern
Wyoming...
Strong upper-level winds will overspread the region on Friday
afternoon, encouraging continued dry and breezy conditions while
surface temperatures rise 10+ degrees above normal under the
influence of high pressure. Sustained westerly winds of up to 15 mph
and 10-15% RH are expected to overlap a drying fuelscape, thus
Elevated highlights have been introduced. Localized critical
conditions (less than 10% RH and 15-20 mph winds) are possible
across portions of northeastern UT and southern WY. However, sparse
fuels preclude critical highlights, though an upgrade may be
considered in future outlook cycles.
...Snake River Plain...
Ahead of an approaching cold front, sustained westerly winds of
10-20 mph will combine with 10-15% RH (locally lower) in the Snake
River Plain, supportive of Elevated highlights. Weeks of dry, windy
conditions and minimal precipitation has inflicted curing of fuels
across the region, enhancing fire weather concerns as ERCs approach
the 80th-90th percentile on Friday.
..Elizalde-Garcia.. 06/11/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
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