RSS Mesoscale Discussions from Storm Prediction Center
No watches are valid as of Thu Feb 5 10:08:02 UTC 2026.
No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Thu Feb 5 10:08:02 UTC 2026.
SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1257 AM CST Thu Feb 05 2026
Valid 061200Z - 071200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Friday or Friday night.
...Southern/Central CA...
Within the base of a broad large-scale trough over the West Coast,
an embedded midlevel low will move east-southeastward along the
southern CA coast through the period. Broad large-scale ascent and
steepening deep-layer lapse rates accompanying this feature may
yield sufficient (albeit weak) buoyancy for a couple thunderstorms
across the region -- with the best potential over the higher terrain
late in the day.
..Weinman.. 02/05/2026
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SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0206 AM CST Thu Feb 05 2026
Valid 071200Z - 081200Z
...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are not forecast on Saturday or Saturday night.
...Discussion...
A dry and stable air mass encompassing most of the CONUS will
preclude thunderstorms on Saturday and Saturday night.
..Weinman.. 02/05/2026
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Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0356 AM CST Thu Feb 05 2026
Valid 081200Z - 131200Z
...DISCUSSION...
A low-latitude midlevel low will advance eastward across northern
Mexico on Days 4-5/Sunday-Monday, before devolving into an open wave
and emerging over the southern Plains on Day 6/Tuesday. While
thunderstorm potential should increase across the region ahead of
this feature, current indications are that weakly modified Gulf
moisture will limit appreciable severe potential -- especially given
modest midlevel lapse rates accompanying the trough.
In the wake of this feature, the upper-level pattern should begin to
consolidate and amplify, as a large-scale trough develops over the
West. This should eventually favor higher-quality boundary-layer
moisture return into the southern Plains and lower MS Valley late in
the extended forecast period.
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SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1249 AM CST Thu Feb 05 2026
Valid 051200Z - 061200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
...Synopsis...
A highly amplified upper-level pattern will be in place today.
Ridging will dominate the West with troughing in the East. While
fire weather concerns will generally be low, some modestly dry and
breezy conditions are possible within a weak downslope flow regime.
These conditions will occur within the lee of the northern Rockies
extending into portions of the central High Plains. There are some
drying fuels in these areas that could allow for localized elevated
fire weather. RH will range from 15-25% with winds around 15 mph
(locally greater).
..Wendt.. 02/05/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
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SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1250 AM CST Thu Feb 05 2026
Valid 061200Z - 071200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
...Synopsis...
With the upper-level ridge becoming more expansive across the CONUS,
fire weather concerns are expected to remain low for most areas on
account of relatively weak winds. There will be pockets of
dry/breezy conditions in north/central Florida, but recent and
expected precipitation should keep any fire weather concerns
localized at best.
..Wendt.. 02/05/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
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