RSS Mesoscale Discussions from Storm Prediction Center
WW 6 TORNADO LA MS CW 150055Z - 150800Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Tornado Watch Number 6
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
655 PM CST Sat Feb 14 2026
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Tornado Watch for portions of
Much of Louisiana
Southwest Mississippi
Coastal Waters
* Effective this Saturday night and Sunday morning from 655 PM
until 200 AM CST.
* Primary threats include...
A few tornadoes likely with a couple intense tornadoes possible
Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible
SUMMARY...A fast-moving line of thunderstorms will track eastward
across the watch area through the evening. Conditions are favorable
for a few intense storms embedded within the line, capable of
tornadoes and damaging wind gusts.
The tornado watch area is approximately along and 90 statute miles
east and west of a line from 35 miles northeast of Monroe LA to 55
miles southwest of Intracoastal City LA. For a complete depiction of
the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS
WOU6).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for
tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch
area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for
threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements
and possible warnings.
&&
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 5...
AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail
surface and aloft to 1 inch. Extreme turbulence and surface wind
gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 450. Mean
storm motion vector 24040.
...Hart
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WW 5 TORNADO LA TX CW 142150Z - 150300Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Tornado Watch Number 5
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
350 PM CST Sat Feb 14 2026
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Tornado Watch for portions of
Far Northwest Louisiana
East and Southeast Texas
Coastal Waters
* Effective this Saturday afternoon and evening from 350 PM until
900 PM CST.
* Primary threats include...
A few tornadoes possible
Scattered damaging winds likely with isolated significant gusts
to 75 mph possible
Isolated large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible
SUMMARY...A line of thunderstorms should gradually strengthen
through the rest of the afternoon and persist into the evening as it
moves across east/southeast Texas and into parts of Louisiana.
Scattered severe/damaging winds up to 60-75 mph will be a concern,
along with a few tornadic circulations embedded within the line.
The tornado watch area is approximately along and 65 statute miles
east and west of a line from 40 miles north northeast of Longview TX
to 15 miles south southwest of Angleton TX. For a complete depiction
of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS
WOU5).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for
tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch
area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for
threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements
and possible warnings.
&&
AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail
surface and aloft to 1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind
gusts to 65 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 450. Mean
storm motion vector 28035.
...Gleason
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WW 0006 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 5
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 E PSX TO
45 W POE TO 30 WNW ELD.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0079
..WEINMAN..02/15/26
ATTN...WFO...SHV...HGX...LCH...
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 5
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
LAC013-015-027-031-043-081-085-119-150240-
LA
. LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE
BIENVILLE BOSSIER CLAIBORNE
DE SOTO GRANT RED RIVER
SABINE WEBSTER
TXC039-071-167-199-241-245-291-321-351-361-403-150240-
TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BRAZORIA CHAMBERS GALVESTON
HARDIN JASPER JEFFERSON
LIBERTY MATAGORDA NEWTON
ORANGE SABINE
GMZ330-335-350-355-450-150240-
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WW 0005 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 5
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 E PSX TO
45 W POE TO 30 WNW ELD.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0079
..WEINMAN..02/15/26
ATTN...WFO...SHV...HGX...LCH...
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 5
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
LAC013-015-027-031-043-081-085-119-150240-
LA
. LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE
BIENVILLE BOSSIER CLAIBORNE
DE SOTO GRANT RED RIVER
SABINE WEBSTER
TXC039-071-167-199-241-245-291-321-351-361-403-150240-
TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BRAZORIA CHAMBERS GALVESTON
HARDIN JASPER JEFFERSON
LIBERTY MATAGORDA NEWTON
ORANGE SABINE
GMZ330-335-350-355-450-150240-
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MD 0079 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 5... FOR PARTS OF THE MIDDLE AND UPPER TEXAS COAST
Mesoscale Discussion 0079
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0623 PM CST Sat Feb 14 2026
Areas affected...Parts of the Middle and Upper Texas Coast
Concerning...Tornado Watch 5...
Valid 150023Z - 150230Z
The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 5 continues.
SUMMARY...The risk of severe wind gusts and a couple tornadoes will
continue eastward to the coast during the next few hours -- within
Tornado Watch #5.
DISCUSSION...The latest radar data from KHGX depicts an organized
squall line moving eastward along a surface cold front at around
35-40 kt toward the Middle and Upper TX Coast. Ahead of the line,
the HGX VWP is sampling a 40 kt low-level jet, which is contributing
to large clockwise hodograph curvature (250-300 m2/s2 effective
SRH). While the frontal forcing and 50-60 kt of line-parallel
effective shear is promoting a continued linear mode (with a
severe-wind risk), the ample streamwise vorticity and upper 60s to
near 70 boundary-layer dewpoints is also favoring embedded
circulations/supercell structures and a tornado risk. The risk of
severe wind gusts and possibly a brief tornado or two will continue
to the coast during the next few hours -- within Tornado Watch #5.
..Weinman.. 02/15/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...LCH...HGX...
LAT...LON 29359614 29969556 30569492 30729444 30679405 30369381
29949385 29609409 28729545 28609594 28929622 29359614
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-130 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN
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MD 0078 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELY FOR MUCH OF LOUISIANA INTO SOUTHWESTERN MISSISSIPPI
Mesoscale Discussion 0078
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0602 PM CST Sat Feb 14 2026
Areas affected...Much of Louisiana into southwestern Mississippi
Concerning...Severe potential...Tornado Watch likely
Valid 150002Z - 150200Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent
SUMMARY...The severe threat will continue spreading eastward across
Louisiana into southwestern Mississippi tonight. The primary concern
will be a few tornadoes and damaging wind gusts. A downstream
tornado watch will be issued in the next hour or so.
DISCUSSION...An increasingly organized north/south-oriented squall
line is tracking eastward along a surface cold front at around 30 kt
in far eastern TX. Damaging gusts have been a concern with this
activity -- given the primarily linear mode, though transient
circulations have also posed a risk of brief tornadoes.
Ahead of the line, the SHV and POE VWPs already show a large
clockwise-curved hodograph (upwards of 300-350 m2/s2 0-1 km SRH). As
a robust midlevel trough continues eastward, this wind profile will
be maintained over the warm sector, with additional strengthening of
the low-level jet possible. While buoyancy will remain somewhat
limited with eastward extent, the favorable wind profile,
strengthening low-level mass response, and moist pre-convective air
mass will continue to favor an organized line with embedded
mesovorticies and supercell structures. As a result, damaging wind
gusts and a few tornadoes will be the primary concerns (and a strong
tornado cannot be ruled out). A downstream tornado watch will be
issued in the next hour or so.
..Weinman/Hart.. 02/15/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...JAN...LIX...LCH...SHV...
LAT...LON 30669359 32039315 32709283 32959245 32969193 32909114
32709055 32379018 31879015 31079025 29949062 29619100
29449215 29539292 29689332 29959364 30669359
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-130 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
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SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0627 PM CST Sat Feb 14 2026
Valid 150100Z - 151200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM FAR EASTERN
TEXAS ACROSS LOUISIANA AND INTO SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI...
...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms remain possible this evening and overnight from
eastern Texas across the Lower Mississippi Valley. A few tornadoes
along with scattered damaging winds will be possible.
...Sabine into the Lower Mississippi Valley...
A fast-moving shortwave trough will move from TX toward the lower MS
Valley through Sunday morning, providing lift and cooling aloft. At
the surface, low pressure will move from the ArkLaTex area into
northern MS, with a cold front trailing southwest from the low.
Ahead of the cold front, the air mass will continue to moisten as a
warm front lifts northward across southern LA and eventually
southern MS and AL late. Behind the warm front, dewpoints will
likely rise into the mid 60s F, aided by veering low-level winds and
40-50 kt at 850 mb.
The combination of increasing low-level shear will likely result in
effective SRH values over 200 m2/s2, perhaps near 300 m2/s2 where
non-zero low-level buoyancy exists. Given the rapid progression of
the upper trough, a squall line is likely to be maintained
overnight, possibly reaching southwest AL by 12Z. Both damaging
winds and a few embedded/QLCS tornadoes will be possible as this
line interacts with the increasingly moist air mass. The main
mitigating factor to overall magnitude of severe will be the
instability values, with MLCAPE averaging 500-750 J/kg overnight.
For more information see mesoscale discussions #0078 and #0079.
..Jewell.. 02/15/2026
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SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0356 PM CST Sat Feb 14 2026
Valid 161200Z - 221200Z
...Synopsis...
A persistent and strong mid-level flow pattern emerges over the
southern U.S. early next week as upper-level troughing evolves
across the West. Subsequent lee trough development across the Plains
with deeper Gulf moisture confined to the southeastern U.S. will aid
in keeping dry and breezy conditions across portions of the central
and Southern Plains next week. More pronounced mid-level short waves
and attendant jet cores within the broad west/southwesterly flow
aloft could bring more significant fire weather threats to the
central and southern Plains, particularly on Day 4/Tuesday and Day
6/Thursday.
...Day 3-6/Monday-Thursday - Central and Southern Plains...
Increasing southwesterly winds in response to a deepening lee trough
across the central High Plains under moderate westerly flow aloft
should bring dry and breezy conditions to eastern NM and the TX
Panhandle on Day 3/Monday where 40% critical probabilities remain. A
robust 100 kt+ mid-level jet max ahead of a pronounced short wave
trough, along with rapidly strengthening lee trough across the
northern High Plains will promote enhanced fire weather concerns
across much of the central and southern Plains on Day 4/Tuesday.
Some uncertainty in RH reductions exists across the high Plains
adjacent to the Southern Rockies as mid and upper-level subtropical
moisture moves into the Southwest, but overall fire weather threat
remains high. Critical fire weather conditions remain most likely
across the TX Panhandle/vicinity and northeastern CO and the NE
Panhandle on Tuesday where a 70% critical probability area has been
introduced. Broad westerly flow aloft and associated downslope
drying and mixing will persist across the Southern Plains on Day
5/Wednesday. Another mid-level short wave and jet max moves into the
Southwest Thursday accompanied by deepening surface low pressure
across the Central Plains. Favorable downslope trajectories will
support dry and breezy conditions across the Southern Plains on Day
5/Thursday but wind magnitude uncertainty limits introduction of a
70% critical probability area at this time.
...Day 7-8/Friday-Saturday - Southern Plains...
Longer term ensemble guidance indicates a transition to northwest
flow aloft as a more progressive wave pattern emerges across CONUS
late next week, inviting a colder air mass into the Southern U.S.
for the weekend. Dry, post frontal flow could support continued fire
weather concerns for portions of the southern Plains on Day
7/Friday, but timing uncertainty limits predictability of fire
weather impacts late next week.
..Williams.. 02/14/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
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