RSS Mesoscale Discussions from Storm Prediction Center
WW 511 TORNADO MN ND 242030Z - 250400Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Tornado Watch Number 511
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
330 PM CDT Fri Jul 24 2026
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Tornado Watch for portions of
Northern Minnesota
Eastern North Dakota
* Effective this Friday afternoon and evening from 330 PM until
1100 PM CDT.
* Primary threats include...
A couple tornadoes possible
Scattered damaging winds and isolated significant gusts to 80
mph likely
Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 3.5
inches in diameter likely
SUMMARY...Scattered severe thunderstorms are forecast to develop and
intensify this afternoon into the evening across the Watch area. A
few of the more intense storms will likely become supercellular and
have an accompanying risk for very large hail, severe gusts, and
pose a threat for a couple of tornadoes. A severe cluster of
thunderstorms may eventually evolve later this evening with a
continued risk for large hail and severe gusts with this activity.
The tornado watch area is approximately along and 105 statute miles
east and west of a line from 10 miles west northwest of Warroad MN
to 15 miles east of Detroit Lakes MN. For a complete depiction of
the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS
WOU1).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for
tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch
area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for
threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements
and possible warnings.
&&
AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail
surface and aloft to 3.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind
gusts to 70 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean
storm motion vector 30045.
...Smith
Read more
WW 0512 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 512
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 NNW ABR
TO 15 S FAR.
..HART..07/25/26
ATTN...WFO...FGF...BIS...
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 512
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
NDC077-081-250340-
ND
. NORTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
RICHLAND SARGENT
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
Read more
WW 0511 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 511
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 WNW GFK
TO 30 ENE RRT AND 20 SSW FAR TO 25 NE GFK TO 15 ENE RRT.
..HART..07/25/26
ATTN...WFO...FGF...DLH...
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 511
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
MNC001-005-007-021-027-029-035-057-061-071-077-087-089-107-113-
119-125-250340-
MN
. MINNESOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
AITKIN BECKER BELTRAMI
CASS CLAY CLEARWATER
CROW WING HUBBARD ITASCA
KOOCHICHING LAKE OF THE WOODS MAHNOMEN
MARSHALL NORMAN PENNINGTON
POLK RED LAKE
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
Read more
No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Sat Jul 25 04:58:10 UTC 2026.
SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0754 PM CDT Fri Jul 24 2026
Valid 250100Z - 251200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
SOUTH-CENTRAL/EASTERN ND INTO NORTHERN MN AND EXTREME NORTHEAST
SD...
...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms capable of large hail, damaging winds, and a
tornado risk remain possible this evening across portions of North
Dakota into northern Minnesota and extreme northeast South Dakota.
...ND into northern MN...
Scattered supercells are ongoing this evening across northern MN,
while a small storm cluster (with occasional embedded supercell
structures) is moving eastward across southeast ND and extreme
northeast SD. MLCAPE of 2000-3000 J/kg and effective shear of 40-50
kt will continue to provide a favorable environment for organized
storms through the evening, though some increase in CINH is expected
with time. Ongoing supercell structures will continue to pose a
threat of large hail and localized severe gusts, and some tornado
threat may persist through at least dusk, given increasing low-level
shear/SRH (as observed on the KMVX VWP). Any upscale growth could be
accompanied by localized swaths of greater severe-wind threat. An
eventual weakening trend is expected late tonight, as CINH continues
to increase with time and buoyancy decreases with southeastward
extent. See MCD 1726 and MCD 1727 for more information.
...Elsewhere...
High-based convection may continue to pose a threat for localized
strong to severe gusts across parts of the southern Rockies and High
Plains, southeast AZ, and the northern Great Basin into parts of
ID/western WY/southwest MT though the evening. Weak deep-layer
flow/shear should continue to limit potential for a more organized
severe threat.
..Dean.. 07/25/2026
Read more
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1143 PM CDT Fri Jul 24 2026
Valid 251200Z - 261200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR MUCH OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST INTO
THE NORTHERN ROCKIES...
...Synopsis...
Upper ridging will prevail over the western and central CONUS today.
A belt of stronger mid-level flow, accompanied by embedded mid-level
impulses, will traverse the periphery of the upper ridge and
overspread the West Coast toward the northern Rockies. This belt of
stronger flow aloft will support dry and windy conditions supportive
of wildfire spread, with deep-layer ascent associated with embedded
impulses also supporting dry thunderstorm initiation, especially
over portions of Montana.
...Parts of the northern Sierra to the northern Rockies...
Through the afternoon, a dry boundary layer will mix upward to the
mid-levels, allowing for downward momentum transport of the
aforementioned stronger mid-level flow aloft. By afternoon peak
heating, sustained southwesterly surface winds exceeding 20 mph
should become widespread, especially in terrain favoring areas, from
the northern Sierra to the northern Rockies. Fifteen percent RH
should be common by afternoon peak heating, overlapping with many
areas experiencing 20+ mph sustained winds, warranting widespread
Critical highlights given dry fuels.
...Portions of Montana...
Guidance consensus (including high-resolution members) depicts at
least scattered thunderstorm development across much of Montana by
afternoon as a mid-level impulse overspreads the region. Forecast
soundings show classic inverted-v profiles extending up to 500 mb,
amid appreciable flow aloft. As such, fast-moving and high-based
storms will promote dry lightning strikes over fuel beds receptive
to fire spread, warranting isolated dry thunderstorm highlights.
Furthermore, strong vertical wind shear will accompany the mid-level
impulse, and given appreciable buoyancy aloft, several of these
storms may produce strong to severe wind gusts, which may exacerbate
any ongoing fires or holdovers. Please see the latest Day 1
Convective outlook for more details on the severe thunderstorm
threat.
..Squitieri.. 07/25/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1156 PM CDT Fri Jul 24 2026
Valid 261200Z - 271200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHERN MONTANA...
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PARTS OF THE NORTHERN SIERRA INTO
THE HARNEY BASIN...
...Synopsis...
An upper ridge will remain in place across the western and central
CONUS tomorrow (Sunday). A belt of stronger mid-level flow will
overspread the northern Sierra and pivot clockwise around the upper
ridge to the northern High Plains, supporting dry and gusty
conditions near the surface. As this flow is mixed downward to the
surface by a deep and dry boundary layer during the afternoon areas,
widespread 15+ mph sustained southwesterly surface winds will be
common. Given RH dipping to at least 20 percent, widespread Elevated
highlights have been introduced, from the Pacific Northwest to the
northern Rockies and northern High Plains. Additionally, guidance
consensus continues to indicate locally stronger surface wind
fields, atop dry fuels, over portions of northern Montana and the
northern Sierra to Harney Basin. Over both of these areas, 15
percent RH will coincide with the stronger winds for several hours,
warranting Critical highlights.
..Squitieri.. 07/25/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
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