RSS Mesoscale Discussions from Storm Prediction Center
No watches are valid as of Tue Jan 13 00:34:02 UTC 2026.
No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Tue Jan 13 00:34:02 UTC 2026.
SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0630 PM CST Mon Jan 12 2026
Valid 130100Z - 131200Z
...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are not expected the remainder of tonight.
...Synopsis...
Expansive surface high pressure and a dry/stable boundary layer will
preclude thunderstorm activity tonight.
..Leitman.. 01/13/2026
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SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0137 PM CST Mon Jan 12 2026
Valid 122000Z - 131200Z
...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are not expected today and tonight.
...Synopsis...
The previous forecast (see below) remains on track, with no changes
or additions made.
..Squitieri.. 01/12/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1027 AM CST Mon Jan 12 2026/
...Synopsis and Discussion...
Largely cyclonic flow aloft is anticipated over much of the central
and eastern CONUS today, while a modifying Rex block configuration
evolves over the western CONUS. Stable conditions are forecast
across the majority of the CONUS, with offshore trajectories
persisting across the Southeast and a reinforcing surge of cold air
across the northern and central Plains as shortwave trough drops
southeastward out the Canadian Prairies into the Upper Midwest this
evening.
A few lightning flashes could occur with the elevated convection
expected tonight from TX Rio Grande Valley into the TX Hill Country
as the upper low associated with the modifying Rex Block progresses
across central Mexico. A flash or two could also occur along the
southeast FL Coast after 04Z, where low-level convergence and
moderate low-level moisture may result in sporadic deep convection.
However, overall thunderstorm coverage is currently forecast to be
less than 10% in both of these areas.
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SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0152 PM CST Mon Jan 12 2026
Valid 131200Z - 141200Z
...Central High Plains...
North-northwesterly flow aloft attributed to a deepening upper-level
trough across the eastern U.S. will increase through Tuesday across
the Southern Rockies and adjacent High Plains. The upper-level
support along with ongoing lee troughing will promote breezy
northwest winds of 10-20 mph across portions of central High Plains
Tuesday. Increasing cloud cover will limit boundary layer mixing to
a degree but relative humidity should still fall to around 20%
across northeastern CO and vicinity. This coupled with breezy winds
and dry/dormant fuels will likely support elevated fire weather
threat for northeastern CO, far southeastern WY and southwestern NE
Panhandle, where Elevated highlights have been added.
...Southern Plains...
Limited magnitude of southwest winds associated with a surface
trough extending southwest from the Great Lakes region will be a
primary mitigating factor in a broader fire weather threat across
the Southern Plains on Tuesday. Localized elevated fire weather
conditions are still possible as afternoon RH falls below 20% across
northwestern Texas and southwestern OK where winds of up to 15 mph
amid drier fuels are expected.
...Southeast...
A residual dry air mass will persist across the Southeastern U.S.
Tuesday where RH will fall to as low as 20% on Tuesday. Although
limited recent rainfall has promoted drier fuels across portions of
southern GA and the Carolinas, a weak surface pressure gradient will
restrict winds to 10 mph or less across much of the region Tuesday
afternoon, limiting a broader fire weather concern across the
Southeast.
..Williams.. 01/12/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0207 AM CST Mon Jan 12 2026/
...Synopsis...
Broad northwesterly flow will persist over much of the CONUS as
eastern US troughing continues to intensify. A stronger shortwave
within the broad troughing will move southward over the central US
Tuesday. An accompanying cold front will also move southward with
strong surface winds along and behind it.
..Central High Plains...
As the upper trough over the East deepens, flow aloft will turn more
northerly ahead of the strong shortwave trough. This, along with the
surface cold front will support strong northerly/northwesterly
surface winds across parts of WY northern CO and NE Tuesday. At
least brief dry and breezy conditions are possible in this region
owing to the downslope winds. Currently, RH values appear only
modest owing to cloud cover and rapidly decreasing temperatures.
However, very dry fine fuels and in some dry/breezy conditions could
support brief locally elevated fire-weather potential Tuesday
afternoon before diminishing overnight.
...Southern Plains...
A period of dry southwesterly flow is forecast to develop across the
southern Plains D2/Tuesday as upper troughing intensifies over the
northeastern US. Winds are not forecast to be overly strong, but
gusts around 15 mph are possible. These winds, overlapping with low
RH of 15-20% during the afternoon could support some localized
fire-weather concerns. However, recent rainfall should preclude
broader potential.
...Southeast...
Dry conditions will likely persist over the Southeast as surface
high pressure settles south of the deepening low in the wake of an
earlier cold front. While strong winds appear unlikely, RH values
below 35% and drier fuels could support some brief localized
fire-weather concerns, especially across parts of coastal GA and the
Carolinas where little rainfall has occurred recently.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
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SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0359 PM CST Mon Jan 12 2026
Valid 141200Z - 201200Z
...Synopsis...
The upper-level pattern will be characterized by ridging across the
western U.S. and deeper troughing east of the Continental Divide
through early next week. This will favor dry and seasonably warm
conditions across the West while pronounced troughing invites cold
front intrusions into the Plains and eastern CONUS. Post-frontal
winds, where not accompanied by precipitation, will be a focus for
fire weather concern across the Southern Plains on Day 3/Wednesday
and to a lesser extent in the Southeast on Day 4/Thursday. Dry
return flow events are possible across the Southern Plains that
could be of impact given expected minimal to no precipitation across
the region through this week.
...Days 3-5/Wednesday-Friday...
A dry cold front will sweep into the Southern Plains on Day
3/Wednesday as a deepening upper-level trough envelopes the eastern
U.S. Gusty north winds will enhance wildfire risk but limited RH
reductions, cloud cover and cooler temperatures should limit a more
significant fire weather threat. A rapid return to dry,
southwesterly flow across the Southern Plains is likely on Day
4/Thursday as a nascent lee trough deepens across the Great Plains
where 40% critical probabilities have been added to the TX Panhandle
area. Farther east, steady post-frontal winds across the Southeast
are likely on Day 5/Thursday, but uncertainty in some distribution
of rainfall associated with the front along with much colder
temperatures filtering into the region could limit a greater fire
weather potential for Thursday. Increasing north-northwesterly flow
aloft associated with the next approaching mid-level short wave into
the Northern Plains should overspread much of the central/northern
High Plains on Day 5/Friday. Another southward moving cold front
under the deepening mid-level trough across the Upper Midwest should
bring additional fire weather concerns to portions of the Southern
Plains. The most likely area for alignment for dry, gusty north
winds and sufficiently dry fuels should be portions of the TX
Panhandle and western OK Friday afternoon where critical
probabilities have been introduced.
..Williams.. 01/12/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
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