RSS Mesoscale Discussions from Storm Prediction Center
WW 227 TORNADO KS MO 182310Z - 190600Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Tornado Watch Number 227
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
610 PM CDT Mon May 18 2026
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Tornado Watch for portions of
East-Central and Southeast Kansas
West-Central Missouri
* Effective this Monday night and Tuesday morning from 610 PM
until 100 AM CDT.
* Primary threats include...
A few tornadoes and a couple intense tornadoes possible
Scattered damaging winds and isolated significant gusts to 75
mph likely
Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2
inches in diameter possible
SUMMARY...A line of supercell thunderstorms is currently ongoing
along and ahead of a cold front that extends from northeast into
central KS. This line of storms is expected to continue
eastward/southeastward this evening, into an environment that will
remain supportive of a continued risk for all severe hazards. Any
discrete storms ahead of the line could pose a risk for a strong
tornado, with line-embedded tornadoes possible as well. There is
some potential for the development of several embedded bowing
clusters, which could result in corridors of 65 to 75 mph wind
gusts.
The tornado watch area is approximately along and 60 statute miles
north and south of a line from 5 miles west of Wichita KS to 25
miles north northeast of Knob Noster MO. For a complete depiction of
the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS
WOU7).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for
tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch
area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for
threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements
and possible warnings.
&&
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 222...WW 224...WW
225...WW 226...
AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail
surface and aloft to 2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind
gusts to 65 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean
storm motion vector 24035.
...Mosier
Read more
WW 226 TORNADO OK TX 182135Z - 190500Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Tornado Watch Number 226
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
435 PM CDT Mon May 18 2026
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Tornado Watch for portions of
Western Oklahoma
Far Northwest Texas
* Effective this Monday afternoon from 435 PM until Midnight CDT.
* Primary threats include...
A few tornadoes and a couple intense tornadoes possible
Scattered damaging winds and isolated significant gusts to 75
mph possible
Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2.5
inches in diameter possible
SUMMARY...Thunderstorm development is ongoing along the dryline in
western OK. The very unstable and moderately sheared environment
could support a few supercells if the warm and dry low to mid levels
can be overcome. All hazards including very large hail and tornadoes
are possible with any mature storms. Low-level shear will strengthen
this evening as the low-level jet increases, and any storm that
persists into the evening could encounter an environment supportive
of strong tornadoes.
The tornado watch area is approximately along and 50 statute miles
east and west of a line from 20 miles northwest of Alva OK to 40
miles southwest of Wichita Falls TX. For a complete depiction of the
watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU6).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for
tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch
area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for
threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements
and possible warnings.
&&
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 220...WW 221...WW
222...WW 223...WW 224...WW 225...
AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail
surface and aloft to 2.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind
gusts to 65 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean
storm motion vector 24020.
...Mosier
Read more
WW 225 TORNADO IA KS MO 182050Z - 190300Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Tornado Watch Number 225
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
350 PM CDT Mon May 18 2026
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Tornado Watch for portions of
Southwest Iowa
Northeast Kansas
Northwest Missouri
* Effective this Monday afternoon and evening from 350 PM until
1000 PM CDT.
* Primary threats include...
A few tornadoes and a couple intense tornadoes likely
Widespread damaging winds and isolated significant gusts to 80
mph likely
Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2
inches in diameter likely
SUMMARY...Intense supercell thunderstorms over northeast Kansas and
southeast Nebraska will continue eastward this evening into the
watch area. Large hail, damaging winds, and tornadoes will all be
possible.
The tornado watch area is approximately along and 55 statute miles
north and south of a line from 15 miles north northwest of Falls
City NE to 10 miles north northeast of Lamoni IA. For a complete
depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update
(WOUS64 KWNS WOU5).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for
tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch
area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for
threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements
and possible warnings.
&&
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 220...WW 221...WW
222...WW 223...WW 224...
AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail
surface and aloft to 2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind
gusts to 70 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean
storm motion vector 25035.
...Hart
Read more
WW 224 TORNADO KS 182000Z - 190300Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Tornado Watch Number 224
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
300 PM CDT Mon May 18 2026
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Tornado Watch for portions of
South Central Kansas
* Effective this Monday afternoon and evening from 300 PM until
1000 PM CDT.
* Primary threats include...
A few tornadoes and a couple intense tornadoes likely
Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 3
inches in diameter likely
Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely
SUMMARY...Rapid thunderstorm development is expected this afternoon
across the watch area. Very large hail is the main concern, but
parameters also support the risk of a few tornadoes.
The tornado watch area is approximately along and 35 statute miles
north and south of a line from 25 miles south southwest of Dodge
City KS to 75 miles east of Dodge City KS. For a complete depiction
of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS
WOU4).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for
tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch
area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for
threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements
and possible warnings.
&&
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 220...WW 221...WW
222...WW 223...
AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail
surface and aloft to 3 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind
gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 550. Mean
storm motion vector 26030.
...Hart
Read more
WW 222 TORNADO KS NE 181750Z - 190100Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Tornado Watch Number 222
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1250 PM CDT Mon May 18 2026
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Tornado Watch for portions of
Northeast Kansas
Southeast Nebraska
* Effective this Monday afternoon and evening from 1250 PM until
800 PM CDT.
...THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION...
* Primary threats include...
Several tornadoes and a few intense tornadoes likely
Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 3
inches in diameter likely
Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely
SUMMARY...Rapid supercell development is expected over north-central
Kansas. These storms will track northeastward through the afternoon
across the watch area, into far southeast Nebraska. Instability and
shear parameters suggest the potential for intense tornadoes, along
with very large hail and damaging winds.
The tornado watch area is approximately along and 40 statute miles
north and south of a line from 45 miles west of Salina KS to 10
miles east southeast of Falls City NE. For a complete depiction of
the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS
WOU2).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for
tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch
area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for
threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements
and possible warnings.
&&
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 220...WW 221...
AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail
surface and aloft to 3 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind
gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 550. Mean
storm motion vector 25030.
...Hart
Read more
WW 0227 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 227
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..JEWELL..05/18/26
ATTN...WFO...TOP...ICT...EAX...
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 227
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
KSC003-015-017-019-031-035-045-049-059-073-077-079-087-091-103-
107-111-121-125-139-173-177-191-197-205-207-209-190040-
KS
. KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ANDERSON BUTLER CHASE
CHAUTAUQUA COFFEY COWLEY
DOUGLAS ELK FRANKLIN
GREENWOOD HARPER HARVEY
JEFFERSON JOHNSON LEAVENWORTH
LINN LYON MIAMI
MONTGOMERY OSAGE SEDGWICK
SHAWNEE SUMNER WABAUNSEE
WILSON WOODSON WYANDOTTE
MOC013-025-033-037-047-049-083-095-101-107-117-159-165-177-195-
190040-
MO
. MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BATES CALDWELL CARROLL
CASS CLAY CLINTON
HENRY JACKSON JOHNSON
Read more
WW 0226 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 226
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..JEWELL..05/18/26
ATTN...WFO...OUN...
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 226
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
OKC003-009-011-015-031-033-039-043-045-055-057-059-065-075-093-
129-141-149-151-153-190040-
OK
. OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ALFALFA BECKHAM BLAINE
CADDO COMANCHE COTTON
CUSTER DEWEY ELLIS
GREER HARMON HARPER
JACKSON KIOWA MAJOR
ROGER MILLS TILLMAN WASHITA
WOODS WOODWARD
TXC009-023-155-197-275-485-487-190040-
TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ARCHER BAYLOR FOARD
HARDEMAN KNOX WICHITA
WILBARGER
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
Read more
WW 0225 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 225
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 W SDA TO
45 ENE SDA TO 40 WNW DSM.
..JEWELL..05/18/26
ATTN...WFO...DMX...OAX...EAX...
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 225
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
IAC001-003-007-039-053-071-117-135-145-159-173-175-185-190040-
IA
. IOWA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ADAIR ADAMS APPANOOSE
CLARKE DECATUR FREMONT
LUCAS MONROE PAGE
RINGGOLD TAYLOR UNION
WAYNE
KSC005-043-190040-
KS
. KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ATCHISON DONIPHAN
MOC003-005-021-061-063-075-081-087-147-227-190040-
MO
. MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
Read more
WW 0224 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 224
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SSW DDC
TO 25 SE DDC TO 45 NNW P28 TO 20 W HUT.
..JEWELL..05/18/26
ATTN...WFO...DDC...
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 224
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
KSC007-025-033-097-151-185-190040-
KS
. KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BARBER CLARK COMANCHE
KIOWA PRATT STAFFORD
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
Read more
WW 0223 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 223
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 S FDY TO
25 SE DTW.
..LYONS..05/18/26
ATTN...WFO...CLE...
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 223
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
OHC123-143-147-182340-
OH
. OHIO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
OTTAWA SANDUSKY SENECA
LEZ163-182340-
CW
. ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE
RENO BEACH TO THE ISLANDS OH BEYOND 5NM OFF SHORELINE TO
US-CANADIAN BORDER
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
Read more
WW 0222 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 222
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 5 WNW HUT TO
15 SE SLN TO 20 WSW MHK TO 35 NNE MHK TO 25 W FNB TO 30 W SDA.
..JEWELL..05/18/26
ATTN...WFO...ICT...TOP...GID...OAX...
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 222
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
KSC013-041-061-085-095-113-115-127-131-149-155-161-190040-
KS
. KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BROWN DICKINSON GEARY
JACKSON KINGMAN MCPHERSON
MARION MORRIS NEMAHA
POTTAWATOMIE RENO RILEY
NEC127-147-190040-
NE
. NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
NEMAHA RICHARDSON
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
Read more
WW 0221 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 221
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 E TOL TO
15 NNW MTC TO 25 NE BAX TO 5 E OSC TO 35 N APN.
..LYONS..05/18/26
ATTN...WFO...APX...GRR...DTX...
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 221
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
MIC069-099-147-151-182340-
MI
. MICHIGAN COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
IOSCO MACOMB ST. CLAIR
SANILAC
LCZ422-460-LHZ349-442-443-462-463-464-182340-
CW
. ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE
ST. CLAIR RIVER
LAKE ST. CLAIR OPEN LAKE (U.S. PORTION)
STURGEON PT TO ALABASTER MI
HARBOR BEACH TO PORT SANILAC MI
PORT SANILAC TO PORT HURON MI
Read more
WW 0220 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 220
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 NNE SLO
TO 15 W BMG TO 30 E IND TO 30 SE FWA TO 40 E FWA TO 10 W TOL.
..HALBERT..05/18/26
ATTN...WFO...ILX...LOT...IWX...IND...ILN...
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 220
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
INC059-065-075-081-109-119-135-145-153-182140-
IN
. INDIANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
HANCOCK HENRY JAY
JOHNSON MORGAN OWEN
RANDOLPH SHELBY SULLIVAN
OHC003-011-051-069-107-137-161-182140-
OH
. OHIO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ALLEN AUGLAIZE FULTON
HENRY MERCER PUTNAM
VAN WERT
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
Read more
No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Tue May 19 00:45:08 UTC 2026.
SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0305 PM CDT Mon May 18 2026
Valid 182000Z - 191200Z
...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL AND NORTHEASTERN KANSAS...FAR SOUTHEASTERN
NEBRASKA...NORTHWESTERN MISSOURI...AND FAR SOUTHWESTERN IOWA....
...SUMMARY...
Numerous severe thunderstorms are expected this afternoon and
evening across the south-central Plains and mid Missouri Valley.
Supercells capable of producing very large to giant hail and
multiple strong to intense tornadoes remain likely from central
Kansas and southeast Nebraska into Iowa and northwest Missouri.
...20z Update Midwest Lower Great Lakes...
An expansive MCS remains ongoing over portions of the lower Great
Lakes this afternoon. The environment ahead of the complex is
unstable, but with gradually decreasing moisture/buoyancy farther
east. An isolated severe risk likely exists ahead of the line across
OH and lower MI through this evening.
A large cold pool behind the complex has overturned the air mass
across much of northern IL, southern WI and eastern IA. This should
greatly limit air mass recovery this afternoon and evening.
Additional convection originating from the central Plains and mid MO
valley may continue eastward, but is forecasted to weaken as it
encounters the cooler air mass tonight. Isolated storms, likely
elevated, could persist with a risk for hail, but the severe
potential has decreased such that, probabilities were lowered.
...Central Plains and Mid MO Valley...
Several supercells and organized clusters have emerged across parts
of KS and southern NE. A very unstable and strongly sheared
environment remains in place ahead of these storms. This should
support a risk for all hazards, include strong tornadoes, very large
hail, and significant damaging winds. Current expectations are for
the individual supercells to grow upscale into one or more clusters
as they interact with a modifying outflow boundary across northeast
KS and northwestern MO. While the environment becomes gradually less
unstable farther north and east, very strong shear will likely
support a continued risk for all hazards this evening. The western
portions of the risk area has been trimmed in parts of central KS
where the cold front has sagged southward.
...Southwest TX..
Strong diurnal heating along southern portions of the dryline has
resulted in isolated storm development this afternoon. Very large
buoyancy (MLCAPE 3000-4000 J/kg) and steep lapse rates will likely
continue to support high-based isolated storms. Vertical shear is
marginal, but sufficient for supercells with hail and damaging wind
potential. Have extended severe probabilities southward along the
dryline.
..Lyons.. 05/18/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1125 AM CDT Mon May 18 2026/
...Central Plains...
Morning water vapor loop shows a potent shortwave trough rotating
across the central Rockies into western KS. The primary surface
boundary extends from western IA into central KS, with a pronounced
outflow boundary associated with overnight convection extending from
southeast KS into southern MO. The outflow boundary will lift
northward today, allowing a very moist and extremely unstable air
mass to spread into eastern KS/northwest MO/extreme southeast
NE/southwest IA. This is the area most concerning for intense
supercells later today.
Initial storms are expected to develop by early afternoon near the
triple point of the retreating outflow boundary and cold front.
These storms will track northeastward through the afternoon and
early evening in a strongly sheared environment favorable for
tornadoes, very large hail, and damaging winds. It remains unclear
how stormscale interactions will impact discrete supercell mode, but
strong tornadoes are a concern in this region.
Farther southwest, thunderstorms will develop in vicinity of the
cold front across south-central KS by late afternoon. Recent CAM
solutions suggest these storms may be affected by the linear frontal
forcing, and may be slightly anafrontal. This would lessen the
tornado risk, but very large hail and damaging winds would remain a
concern. No changes have been made to the Moderate Risk area due to
conflicting model signals.
...Western OK/Northwest TX...
Full sunshine will lead to hot temperatures along the dryline over
western OK into northwest TX. At least isolated thunderstorms are
expected to form in this area, with a risk of large hail and
damaging winds. Weak large scale forcing may limit storm duration
and intensity.
...OH Valley/Great Lakes...
A line of thunderstorms along the IL/IN border is tracking
northeastward into a warm/moist air mass. Relatively strong
low-level wind fields and steep low-level lapse rates suggest a
continued risk of scattered wind damage with the strongest storms as
they track across parts of IN/Lower MI/Northwest OH.
Read more
SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0417 PM CDT Mon May 18 2026
Valid 201200Z - 261200Z
A progressive mid-level synoptic pattern will to transition to
quasi-zonal flow on Day 3/Wednesday. Simultaneously, a weak
shortwave trough will drift southward over the Intermountain West
and across the northern U.S. through late this week. A combination
of below normal temperatures and fairly widespread precipitation
will overspread much of the central and eastern portions of the
CONUS as synoptic flow stabilizes into the weekend. This could
briefly dampen the fire weather threat across much of the country
and support additional green up in some locations, particularly
across the northern CONUS, that have thus far been struggling to
grow fire-slowing vegetation. However, much longer duration
precipitation and cool conditions would be needed to appreciably
improve heavy dead fuel moisture and resultant ERCs.
On Day 3/Wednesday, lingering moderate southwesterly flow aloft will
encourage breezy conditions amid a dry airmass across
central-western NM and eastern AZ. 40% Critical probabilities remain
where southwest winds sustained at 10-20 mph will align with minimum
RH of 10-20% atop dry fuels. On Day 4/Thursday, persisting low RH
across the Southwest with much lighter winds will preclude the
introduction of probabilities. Beyond Day 5/Friday, guidance begins
to vary in the timing/extent of embedded shortwaves and associated
chances of precipitation. Nonetheless, the overall upper pattern
suggests dampened fire weather conditions on a broader scale through
the forecast period, in the exception of localized terrain-driven
breezy conditions across parts of the West.
..Elizalde-Garcia.. 05/18/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
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