RSS Mesoscale Discussions from Storm Prediction Center
No watches are valid as of Thu Mar 26 10:48:02 UTC 2026.
No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Thu Mar 26 10:48:02 UTC 2026.
SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0218 AM CDT Thu Mar 26 2026
Valid 281200Z - 291200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated thunderstorms will be possible Saturday afternoon across
portions of the Florida peninsula, but the potential for severe
thunderstorms is low.
...Synopsis...
Dry and stable conditions will be prevalent across much of the CONUS
as a broad region of high pressure builds over the eastern Plains/OH
Valley in the wake of a strong frontal passage during the D2/Friday
to early D3/Saturday period. This front is forecast to reside across
the northern Gulf and into the northern FL peninsula by 12 UTC
Saturday, and will continue to migrate south through the day before
stalling over south FL during the evening/overnight hours. Although
forcing for ascent should steadily diminish given the frontolytic
nature of the boundary, weak low-level ascent within a moist and
weakly capped environment may support a few thunderstorms.
Displacement from stronger flow aloft will limit storm organization
and longevity, which should preclude organized convection. Based on
extended-range RRFS and MPAS solutions, as well as ensemble QPF
signals, the best potential for thunderstorms should emerge across
the Lake Okeechobee vicinity and areas westward to the FL Gulf
coast.
..Moore.. 03/26/2026
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Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0348 AM CDT Thu Mar 26 2026
Valid 291200Z - 031200Z
...DISCUSSION...
Severe weather potential will remain low through the end of the
upcoming weekend, and while a gradual increase in severe weather
potential is anticipated through next week, predictability remains
limited. Extended-range deterministic and ensemble solutions
continue to generally show good agreement in the eastward
translation of the upper ridge currently over the Southwest towards
the East Coast through the middle of next week. This will not only
result in increasing southwesterly flow over the central CONUS, but
will also promote lee troughing/cyclogenesis with an attendant
uptick in moisture return into the Plains/MS Valley.
Recent GEFS forecasts show high confidence in a return of slightly
above seasonal moisture into the eastern Plains and Midwest by the
D5/Monday to D6/Tuesday time frame. Severe thunderstorm potential is
expected to generally increase during this period as weak impulses
embedded within the broader southwest flow regime overspread the
returning moisture. Based on more bullish deterministic solutions,
some severe risk may materialize across the Midwest late D5/Monday
into D6/Tuesday within a warm frontal zone, and potentially across
the central Plains on D7/Wednesday or D8/Thursday as a cold front
pushes southeast in tandem with the intensification of a surface
low.
While these signals are noted, run-to-run variability among
deterministic guidance remains fairly high regarding the
evolution/placement of surface features and convective environments
beyond D6/Tuesday. Latest GEFS and ECENS guidance, as well as
long-range ensemble clustering and extended calibrated guidance,
show a substantial increase in variance by mid-week, which implies
limited confidence in any particular solution. While not surprising
at this range and with an upper-level regime shift yet to occur, it
remains unclear when predictability of any mid-week severe threat
will substantially improve.
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SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0145 AM CDT Thu Mar 26 2026
Valid 261200Z - 271200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR CENTRAL NEW MEXICO INTO THE
SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...
...Synopsis...
A persistent upper-level ridge will remain centered over northern
Mexico and West Texas today as a subtle, mid-level shortwave trough
shifts eastward across the Four Corners region before ejecting
eastward across the central Great Plains. A second mid-level
shortwave trough will shift southeastward across the upper Great
Lakes region. At the surface, a strong cold front will advance
southward across the Great Plains and Great Basin while a deepening
surface low develops southward in the lee of the Rockies.
...Portions of the southern High Plains...
Dry, downslope flow will be favored ahead of the advancing cold
front, with sustained west-southwest winds of 20-25 mph expected to
overlap very low RH of 5-15% across much of central/eastern New
Mexico into portions of the Texas/Oklahoma Panhandles, northwestern
Oklahoma, and extreme southern Kansas. Farther south, very low RH of
5-10% will overlap westerly winds of around 20 mph (locally higher
in terrain favored areas) in the lee of the Sacramento Mountains.
With record breaking temperatures in the middle to upper 90s F
aiding in rapid drying of finer fuels through the afternoon,
critical fire weather conditions are expected across these areas.
The cold front pushing south across the southern Plains will bring
an abrupt northerly wind shift to the region through early Friday,
with potential impacts to existing wildfires or potential new
ignitions.
Elevated fire weather conditions are expected farther north across
much of southeastern Colorado and western Kansas where westerly
surface winds of around 15-20 mph are forecast to overlap receptive
fuels and RH of 10-15%. Farther to the east across portions of
south-central Kansas, western Oklahoma, and into portions of Texas
Big Country, RH values are forecast to be more marginal (ranging
between 20-30%) owing to some northward moisture return. However,
strong south-southwesterly surface winds of 20-30 mph and receptive
fuels should still support elevated fire weather concerns. A strong
low-level jet (30-40+ kts at 850 mb) coupled with boundary layer
mixing will also support occasional gusts of 35-45 mph across
portions of this area, especially from western Oklahoma into
south-central Kansas.
...Eastern Great Basin...
Sustained westerly surface winds will increase to 15-25 mph (locally
higher) ahead of the approaching cold front amid drying fuels and RH
values of 10-20%. This will support elevated fire weather conditions
across portions of the eastern Great Basin southward into portions
of the Southwest.
...Southwest to south-central Kansas...
A very dry boundary layer will be in place across southern Kansas
before the cold front arrives late this afternoon. The cold front,
impinging mid-level shortwave trough, and some mid-level moisture
may support the development of isolated, dry high-based showers and
thunderstorms across portions of southwest and south-central Kansas
by late this afternoon/evening. Minimal precipitation over a very
receptive fuelscape preceded by record to near-record high
temperatures near 100 F should support a higher ignition efficiency
across the area.
...Northeastern/east-central Colorado...
Latest guidance indicates that the approaching mid-level shortwave
trough coupled with mid-level moisture and a deep, dry boundary
layer (LCLs as high as 3-4 km AGL) may support the development of
isolated, dry showers and thunderstorms amid meager instability
(50-150 J/kg MUCAPE) across portions of northeastern and
east-central Colorado this afternoon. Minimal precipitation and
critical fuels should support elevated ignition efficiency.
..Chalmers.. 03/26/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
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SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0235 AM CDT Thu Mar 26 2026
Valid 271200Z - 281200Z
...Synopsis...
Upper-level ridging centered over northern Mexico and West Texas
will remain in place through D2/Friday as a mid-level shortwave
trough advances southeastward across the Great Lakes region and into
the Northeast. At the surface, a cold front will move offshore of
the Gulf Coast while strong high pressure shifts southeastward from
the northern Great Plains into the Midwest.
...Central Great Plains...
Broad post-frontal flow from the north-northeast amid a dry air mass
will encompass portions of the central/southern Great Plains on
Friday. Sustained surface winds of 15-20 mph coupled with reduced RH
values of 20-25% (locally as low as 15%) and receptive fuels are
expected to support a broad area of elevated to locally critical
fire weather concerns from eastern Nebraska and southwestern Iowa
southward to western Oklahoma and the Texas Panhandle. Strong 850 mb
flow of 30-40+ kts will also support the potential for occasional
gusts to 30-35 mph, especially across the southern portions of the
Elevated highlights.
...Eastern Arizona into western New Mexico...
A backdoor cold front is forecast to move south-southwestward
through portions of the Southwest on Friday. Latest guidance
indicates southeasterly winds will strengthen to 15-25 mph across
portions of eastern Arizona and western New Mexico following the
frontal passage, especially in the vicinity of the White Mountains
and Gila Region. While RH values are forecast to increase behind the
front, there may be a brief period of time where the increased winds
overlap lingering low RH of 15-20%, supporting the potential for
localized elevated fire weather concerns. Uncertainty regarding the
timing of the frontal passage as well as the duration of overlap of
winds/RH precludes the addition of Elevated highlights at this time,
but trends will continue to be monitored.
..Chalmers.. 03/26/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
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