RSS Mesoscale Discussions from Storm Prediction Center
WW 55 TORNADO AR IL IN KY LA MO MS TN 152055Z - 160400Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Tornado Watch Number 55
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
355 PM CDT Sun Mar 15 2026
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Tornado Watch for portions of
Eastern Arkansas
Southern Illinois
Southwest Indiana
Western Kentucky
Far Northeast Louisiana
Southeast Missouri
Northern and Central Mississippi
Western Tennessee
* Effective this Sunday afternoon and evening from 355 PM until
1100 PM CDT.
* Primary threats include...
Several tornadoes likely with a couple intense tornadoes
possible
Widespread damaging winds and isolated significant gusts to 80
mph likely
Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2
inches in diameter possible
SUMMARY...An intense squall line is expected to develop and pose a
substantial threat for widespread severe/damaging winds and several
tornadoes this evening as it moves quickly east-northeastward. Peak
gusts may reach up to 70-80 mph. Supercells may develop ahead of the
squall line, with a threat for large to very large hail and
tornadoes, some of which could be strong (EF-2+).
The tornado watch area is approximately along and 80 statute miles
east and west of a line from 30 miles east northeast of Mount Vernon
IL to 40 miles southeast of Greenville MS. For a complete depiction
of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS
WOU5).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for
tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch
area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for
threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements
and possible warnings.
&&
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 52...WW 53...WW 54...
AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail
surface and aloft to 2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind
gusts to 70 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean
storm motion vector 24045.
...Gleason
Read more
WW 54 TORNADO IL 152045Z - 160300Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Tornado Watch Number 54
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
345 PM CDT Sun Mar 15 2026
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Tornado Watch for portions of
Central Illinois
* Effective this Sunday afternoon and evening from 345 PM until
1000 PM CDT.
* Primary threats include...
A couple tornadoes possible
Scattered damaging winds likely with isolated significant gusts
to 75 mph possible
SUMMARY...A broken line of thunderstorms should pose a threat for
scattered severe/damaging winds and perhaps a couple of tornadoes as
it moves quickly east-northeastward this afternoon and evening.
The tornado watch area is approximately along and 60 statute miles
north and south of a line from 35 miles northwest of Springfield IL
to 35 miles east of Mattoon IL. For a complete depiction of the
watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU4).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for
tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch
area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for
threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements
and possible warnings.
&&
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 52...WW 53...
AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail
surface and aloft to 1 inch. Extreme turbulence and surface wind
gusts to 65 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 400. Mean
storm motion vector 24045.
...Gleason
Read more
WW 53 TORNADO AR LA OK TX 151850Z - 160200Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Tornado Watch Number 53
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
150 PM CDT Sun Mar 15 2026
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Tornado Watch for portions of
Arkansas
Northwest Louisiana
Far Southeast Oklahoma
Northeast Texas
* Effective this Sunday afternoon and evening from 150 PM until
900 PM CDT.
* Primary threats include...
A few tornadoes and a couple intense tornadoes possible
Scattered damaging winds likely with isolated significant gusts
to 75 mph possible
Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2
inches in diameter possible
SUMMARY...Thunderstorms will likely increase in coverage and
intensity along and ahead of a cold front and dryline this afternoon
into early evening. Supercells will pose a threat for large hail up
to 1-2 inches in diameter, along with some tornado risk. With time,
convection should develop into a squall line with greater threat for
severe/damaging winds up to 60-75 mph, along with a continued threat
for embedded tornadoes.
The tornado watch area is approximately along and 80 statute miles
east and west of a line from 25 miles north northeast of Flippin AR
to 40 miles south southeast of Longview TX. For a complete depiction
of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS
WOU3).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for
tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch
area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for
threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements
and possible warnings.
&&
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 52...
AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail
surface and aloft to 2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind
gusts to 65 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean
storm motion vector 25040.
...Gleason
Read more
WW 52 TORNADO IL MO 151830Z - 160100Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Tornado Watch Number 52
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
130 PM CDT Sun Mar 15 2026
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Tornado Watch for portions of
West-Central Illinois
Southern and Eastern Missouri
* Effective this Sunday afternoon and evening from 130 PM until
800 PM CDT.
* Primary threats include...
A few tornadoes possible
Scattered damaging winds likely with isolated significant gusts
to 75 mph possible
Isolated large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible
SUMMARY...Thunderstorms should continue to develop this afternoon
while posing a threat for scattered severe/damaging winds and a few
tornadoes. A greater wind threat, with peak gusts up to 65-75 mph,
may exist if thunderstorms can form into a line along/ahead of a
cold front over the next several hours. Isolated severe hail may
also occur with the strongest cores.
The tornado watch area is approximately along and 75 statute miles
east and west of a line from 40 miles north northwest of Alton IL to
40 miles west southwest of West Plains MO. For a complete depiction
of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS
WOU2).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for
tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch
area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for
threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements
and possible warnings.
&&
AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail
surface and aloft to 1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind
gusts to 65 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 400. Mean
storm motion vector 24045.
...Gleason
Read more
WW 0055 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 55
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0246
..THORNTON..03/15/26
ATTN...WFO...JAN...MEG...PAH...
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 55
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ARC003-017-021-031-035-037-055-077-093-107-111-123-152240-
AR
. ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ASHLEY CHICOT CLAY
CRAIGHEAD CRITTENDEN CROSS
GREENE LEE MISSISSIPPI
PHILLIPS POINSETT ST. FRANCIS
ILC003-047-055-059-065-069-077-081-087-127-145-151-153-165-181-
185-191-193-199-152240-
IL
. ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ALEXANDER EDWARDS FRANKLIN
GALLATIN HAMILTON HARDIN
JACKSON JEFFERSON JOHNSON
MASSAC PERRY POPE
PULASKI SALINE UNION
WABASH WAYNE WHITE
WILLIAMSON
Read more
WW 0054 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 54
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NW SPI TO
20 NNE PIA.
..SPC..03/15/26
ATTN...WFO...ILX...
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 54
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ILC017-019-021-023-025-029-033-035-039-041-045-049-079-101-107-
113-115-125-129-137-139-147-159-167-171-173-179-183-203-
152240-
IL
. ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CASS CHAMPAIGN CHRISTIAN
CLARK CLAY COLES
CRAWFORD CUMBERLAND DE WITT
DOUGLAS EDGAR EFFINGHAM
JASPER LAWRENCE LOGAN
MCLEAN MACON MASON
MENARD MORGAN MOULTRIE
PIATT RICHLAND SANGAMON
SCOTT SHELBY TAZEWELL
VERMILION WOODFORD
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
Read more
WW 0053 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 53
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 WNW TYR
TO 20 ESE DEQ TO 30 WNW HOT TO 10 S FLP TO 30 W UNO.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0247
..THORNTON..03/15/26
ATTN...WFO...LZK...TSA...SHV...
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 53
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ARC001-005-011-013-019-023-025-027-029-039-041-043-045-049-051-
053-057-059-061-063-065-067-069-073-075-079-081-085-091-095-097-
099-103-105-109-117-119-121-125-135-137-139-141-145-147-
152240-
AR
. ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ARKANSAS BAXTER BRADLEY
CALHOUN CLARK CLEBURNE
CLEVELAND COLUMBIA CONWAY
DALLAS DESHA DREW
FAULKNER FULTON GARLAND
GRANT HEMPSTEAD HOT SPRING
HOWARD INDEPENDENCE IZARD
JACKSON JEFFERSON LAFAYETTE
LAWRENCE LINCOLN LITTLE RIVER
LONOKE MILLER MONROE
MONTGOMERY NEVADA OUACHITA
PERRY PIKE PRAIRIE
PULASKI RANDOLPH SALINE
SHARP STONE UNION
VAN BUREN WHITE WOODRUFF
Read more
WW 0052 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 52
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 N HRO TO
45 E SGF TO 10 NNW VIH TO 50 WNW STL TO 15 ESE UIN.
..BENTLEY..03/15/26
ATTN...WFO...LSX...SGF...
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 52
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ILC005-013-027-051-061-083-117-119-121-133-135-149-157-163-189-
152140-
IL
. ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BOND CALHOUN CLINTON
FAYETTE GREENE JERSEY
MACOUPIN MADISON MARION
MONROE MONTGOMERY PIKE
RANDOLPH ST. CLAIR WASHINGTON
MOC055-065-067-071-073-091-093-099-113-123-125-139-149-153-161-
163-169-179-183-186-187-189-203-215-219-221-229-510-152140-
MO
. MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CRAWFORD DENT DOUGLAS
FRANKLIN GASCONADE HOWELL
IRON JEFFERSON LINCOLN
MADISON MARIES MONTGOMERY
OREGON OZARK PHELPS
PIKE PULASKI REYNOLDS
Read more
MD 0247 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 53... FOR ARKANSAS...FAR NORTHEAST TEXAS...INTO NORTHWESTERN LOUISIANA
Mesoscale Discussion 0247
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0339 PM CDT Sun Mar 15 2026
Areas affected...Arkansas...far northeast Texas...into northwestern
Louisiana
Concerning...Tornado Watch 53...
Valid 152039Z - 152215Z
The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 53 continues.
SUMMARY...The risk for all hazards continues across WW53. Gradual
strengthening of ongoing going convection, and possible warm sector
development later this afternoon should increase the severe risk
with time.
DISCUSSION...Across WW53, a broken band of storms has gradually
intensified along a surging cold front across far southeastern OK
into western AR. The environment ahead of these storms is still
destabilizing, with temperatures warming into the upper 60s to 70s
F, resulting in 500-1500 J/kg of MLCAPE. So far, capping has
remained stout, especially with southward extent, slowing storm
intensification/organization. The arrival of robust mid-level ascent
and continued surface heating will erode remaining inhibition ahead
of the front this afternoon. Most CAM guidance shows gradual
strengthening of the frontal convection into this evening. Given the
strong deep-layer shear, large low-level hodographs, and sufficient
buoyancy, a risk for all severe hazards is expected to increase.
It remains possible, but, unclear if discrete per-frontal convection
can develop. Should this occur, supercells with a possible higher
tornado risk in addition to hail and damaging gusts would be
possible. This appears most likely where low-level moisture can
maintain dewpoints near 60 F. Given expected increase in severe
risk, the threat continues across the entirety of WW53 this
afternoon into this evening.
..Lyons.. 03/15/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...JAN...LZK...SHV...TSA...
LAT...LON 32679539 35299385 36459299 36459096 34749123 33759134
33369143 32119253 31869316 31799341 31739381 31779481
31899534 32679539
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-130 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN
Read more
MD 0246 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELY FOR NORTHEAST LOUISIANA AND NORTHERN/CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI TO SOUTHERN ILLINOIS AND INDIANA.
Mesoscale Discussion 0246
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0327 PM CDT Sun Mar 15 2026
Areas affected...northeast Louisiana and northern/central
Mississippi to southern Illinois and Indiana.
Concerning...Severe potential...Tornado Watch likely
Valid 152027Z - 152200Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent
SUMMARY...A tornado watch will likely be needed in the next 1 to 2
hours.
DISCUSSION...Low 60F dewpoints have now moved into the Lower
Mississippi River Valley where temperatures have also warmed into
the upper 70s to low 80s. As low-level moisture continues to
increase and temperatures cool aloft across this region, expect
moderate surface based instability to develop by late afternoon. As
forcing overspreads this region ahead of the approaching mid-level
jet streak, supercells may develop during the late afternoon to
early evening period. These supercells would have some hail threat,
including the potential for large (2+ inch) hail.
The KNQA VWP already shows significant curvature in the lowest 2.5
km and the hodograph size is expected to grow through the
afternoon/evening as 850/700mb flow strengthens. Therefore, if these
pre-frontal supercells form, they will also have a tornado threat,
with some potential for strong tornadoes.
By later in the evening, the damaging wind threat will increase
substantially as the front approaches the region. Convection along
the front this afternoon remains somewhat weak, primarily due to the
cool temperatures and limited moisture, but this activity is
expected to strengthen substantially as it interacts with the warmer
air and greater instability across eastern Arkansas and into
southeast Missouri this evening. Around this time, model guidance
continues to show a northward transport of 62-64F dewpoints into
this region which would result in a substantial QLCS tornado threat
in addition to the damaging wind threat.
A watch will be needed ahead of the approaching squall line, and may
need to be issued soon if pre-frontal supercell development appears
imminent.
..Bentley/Gleason.. 03/15/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...PAH...MEG...JAN...
LAT...LON 33259141 33649093 34139083 36049068 36599065 37368996
37858949 38228900 38448830 38308755 37668741 36858804
36448816 36048818 34778849 33548868 32838977 32539148
32899174 33259141
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...120-150 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN
Read more
SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0257 PM CDT Sun Mar 15 2026
Valid 152000Z - 161200Z
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON
INTO TONIGHT ACROSS MUCH OF THE LOWER/MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...LOWER
OHIO VALLEY...TENNESSEE VALLEY...AND SOUTHEAST...
...SUMMARY...
Numerous to widespread severe/damaging winds and embedded tornadoes
will accompany an intense squall line across much of the lower/mid
Mississippi Valley this afternoon and evening. A couple of strong
tornadoes are also possible within and just ahead of this line
across parts of the lower Ohio Valley into the Mid-South and Gulf
Coast regions. The severe wind and tornado threat will likely
persist through tonight across portions of the Ohio
Valley/Southeast.
...20Z Update...
Some trimming to severe/thunder probabilities was done across
Missouri given the progression of the sharp cold front. Lapse rate
and shear profiles will favor supercells from near the Sabine Valley
into the Mississippi Delta region. There, hail to around 2 inches is
conditionally possible. The greatest potential for strong tornadoes
still appears to be within the mid-Mississippi Valley. Tornado
probabilities were adjusted based on the latest guidance. Lastly,
higher wind probabilities (45%) were expanded southeastward where
there is an increased signal in guidance for a coherent line of
convection to maintain intensity this evening/overnight. See the
previous discussion for additional details.
..Wendt.. 03/15/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1130 AM CDT Sun Mar 15 2026/
...Lower Mississippi Valley/Southeast into the Ohio
Valley/Midwest...
Pronounced upper troughing over the northern/central Plains late
this morning will further amplify through the period as it ejects
east-northeastward across much of the MS Valley/Midwest. A 992 mb
surface low over northern MO will likewise develop northeastward
across the Midwest through the day, reaching northeast IL/northwest
IN by this evening and northern Lower MI by the end of the period.
Primary low-level jet will focus northward across the OH
Valley/Midwest this afternoon and evening, with a trailing/southern
portion present across parts of the Mid-South and lower MS Valley.
Associated strong low-level warm/moist advection will continue to
occur ahead of a sharp surface cold front that is expected to sweep
quickly east-southeastward through tonight over much of the
lower/mid MS Valley, OH/TN Valleys, and Southeast.
Low-level moisture remains fairly shallow/limited ahead of the cold
front per latest surface observations and area 12Z observed
soundings (ILX, SGF, JAN, LIX). Still, generally 50s surface
dewpoints should be present in a narrow warm sector across the OH
Valley/Midwest by late afternoon/early evening, with somewhat
greater moisture (upper 50s to low 60s surface dewpoints) southward
into the lower/mid MS Valley. Large-scale ascent attendant to the
approaching upper trough will aid in the erosion of a substantial
cap noted along/ahead of the cold front by early afternoon (18-20Z).
With even modest/filtered daytime heating, at least weak instability
should develop in a narrow corridor ahead of the front. This gradual
destabilization will support the potential for rapid thunderstorm
development within the next few hours.
General consensus of latest guidance is that a QLCS will quickly
strengthen/consolidate through the mid to late afternoon into the
evening as it moves quickly eastward across AR/MO and the lower/mid
MS Valley and lower OH Valley. Deep-layer shear of 40-50+ kt
associated with a strengthening west-southwesterly mid-level jet
overspreading the warm sector will support organization with the
maturing QLCS. Given the expected strength of the flow in the
boundary layer (50-60+ kt), numerous to potentially widespread
severe/damaging winds up to 60-80 mph are expected wherever the QLCS
can remain surface based. Strong low-level shear will also be
present to foster embedded mesocirculations and the potential for
several QLCS tornadoes.
The opportunity for supercells to develop ahead of the squall line
remains uncertain, as residual low-level capping may inhibit open
warm sector development. Still, greater instability should be
present from the western KY/TN vicinity southward into the lower MS
Valley. Any supercells that can form ahead of the line across these
areas and/or remain at least semi-discrete within the line could
produce strong (EF-2+) tornadoes, as low-level shear and related
elongated/curved hodographs will be quite favorable for updraft
rotation. Although boundary-layer instability will become
increasingly weak with northward extent into the OH Valley tonight,
a continued threat for numerous severe/damaging winds will likely
continue with the QLCS as it shifts eastward across the OH/TN
Valleys and much of the Southeast this evening through early Monday
morning. Have therefore expanded/combined the wind-driven Enhanced
Risk areas in southern/central MS/AL into western GA and eastern TN.
Some chance for pre-frontal supercells and strong tornado potential
ahead of the QLCS may also exist late tonight across portions of
southeast AL, the FL Panhandle, and southwest GA.
...Florida Peninsula into the Carolinas...
Low-level moisture will gradually spread northward through tonight
from the FL Peninsula to the southern Appalachians and into parts of
the Carolinas, well ahead of the amplifying upper trough over the MS
Valley. While forcing will remain generally weak/nebulous, there is
some chance for isolated hail/damaging winds with thunderstorms this
afternoon across much of the FL Peninsula and the Keys. The severe
threat across coastal GA/SC/NC appears conditional on thunderstorms
spreading inland from the Gulf Stream tonight into early Monday
morning. However, an isolated threat for damaging winds and perhaps
a tornado would exist in a gradually improving environment if these
cells form and move inland. Have therefore maintained the Marginal
Risk across this region with no changes.
Read more
SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1230 PM CDT Sun Mar 15 2026
Valid 161200Z - 171200Z
...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF
SOUTH CAROLINA...NORTH CAROLINA...VIRGINIA...MARYLAND...AND
WASHINGTON D.C...
...SUMMARY...
Widespread severe storms are anticipated on Monday across the
Southeast and Mid-Atlantic States. Tornadoes, some strong, and
particularly damaging winds are most likely from parts of South
Carolina to Maryland during the afternoon.
...Synopsis...
An expansive upper trough from WI to the Ark-La-Tex will further
amplify as the basal portion pivots rapidly northeastward towards
the Appalachians. A deep surface cyclone over Lower MI will progress
into QC, with an occluded front arcing southward to a minor low over
western to central NY by Monday afternoon. A sharp cold front will
extend south of this low across the Southeast into the northeast
Gulf, sweeping east across the entire Atlantic Seaboard by 12Z
Tuesday.
...East...
No change has been made to the ongoing level 4-MDT risk, with some
expansion of the 3-ENH in GA, as well as expansions of 1-2/MRGL-SLGT
across NY and FL. The highly meridional deep-layer flow regime
suggests that surface-based instability appears more likely to
develop into NY on Monday afternoon. This type of flow regime, along
with substantial early-day convection south, both render some
uncertainty on intensity amplitudes for wind/tornado across much of
the ENH-MDT risk areas.
A broken band of pre-frontal convection should be ongoing at 12Z
Monday from the lee of the southern Appalachians to the FL
Panhandle. The downstream environment will already be favorable for
supercells including strong tornado potential. With mid to upper 60s
surface dew points and initially modestly steep mid-level lapse
rates, a plume of moderate buoyancy with MLCAPE of 1000-2000 J/kg
should diurnally expand from north FL through at least SC. Any
semi-discrete supercells in this environment will have the potential
to produce a strong tornado and large hail through early afternoon
before large-scale outflow likely shifts offshore of the GA/north FL
coast.
Destabilization farther north from NC to the DE Valley appears more
uncertain, with potential for near-coastal convection within the
low-level warm conveyor limiting more expansive/robust
boundary-layer heating. A plume of weak MLCAPE up to 1000 J/kg
should still develop across the Piedmont into parts of the coastal
plain. Although flow fields will be highly meridional, they will be
quite strong with an intense 700-mb jet strengthening across the
Southeast behind the surface cold front. This will yield enlarged
low-level hodograph curvature across much of the pre-frontal
warm-moist sector.
Even weak boundary-layer heating will be sufficient for
intensification of an extensive QLCS from western to central
portions of NY/PA southward through VA/NC towards midday/early
afternoon. Embedded supercell structures should be most pronounced
south, where breaks in the QLCS are more probable. Some of these
could be long-track with sporadic strong tornadoes, in addition to
the background widespread damaging winds anticipated with the QLCS.
This activity will eventually interact with cool trajectories near
the coastal Atlantic and should result in waning of severe potential
in the Northeast near sunset.
..Grams.. 03/15/2026
Read more
SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0154 PM CDT Sun Mar 15 2026
Valid 171200Z - 181200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Thunder potential appears negligible on Tuesday and Tuesday night.
...Discussion...
With a continental air mass enveloping the Gulf and Atlantic Coasts
by Tuesday morning, thunder potential will become negligible.
Isolated convection might linger near the extreme southern FL
Peninsula and Keys just beyond 12Z Tuesday as the front reaches the
Straits. Thunder probabilities over land appear to be around 10
percent through 15Z.
Elsewhere, conditions will be too dry/stable for lightning-producing
convection through the period.
..Grams.. 03/15/2026
Read more
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0238 PM CDT Sun Mar 15 2026
Valid 161200Z - 171200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR MIDDLE AND LOWER TEXAS COAST...
Dry, post-frontal northerly flow is still expected to bring fire
weather concerns into portions of central and southern TX on
D2/Monday. Farther west, dry return flow on the western periphery of
surface high pressure settling into the Plains will bring an
Elevated fire weather threat to southeastern NM and far west TX.
...Southern and Central Texas...
Stronger northerly flow will commence this evening across southern
TX as a robust cold front quickly moves southward. Showers and
thunderstorms are more likely to develop along the cold front near
and east of the Houston metro area tonight into Monday morning,
leaving much of southern TX dry. Sustained north winds of 15-25 mph
and relative humidity between 15-25% by Monday afternoon are likely
across portions of the middle and lower TX Coast areas where fuels
remain very dry, including ongoing severe drought across far
southern TX. These conditions necessitated introduction of Critical
Highlights within a broader Elevated fire weather threat across
central/southern TX.
...Eastern New Mexico into west Texas...
Dry return flow on the western fringe of surface high pressure
settling into the central U.S. will affect portions of southeastern
NM and west TX Monday. A dry air mass will be in place across much
of the southern High Plains in the wake of a cold front. South winds
of 15-20 mph will develop and align with relative humidity of around
15% (despite considerably cooler temperatures) to bring an Elevated
fire weather threat to east-central and southeastern NM as well as
portions of western TX where dry fuels remain.
..Williams.. 03/15/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1253 AM CDT Sun Mar 15 2026/
...Synopsis...
Post frontal northerly flow will shift into southern/central Texas
for D2/Monday, with Elevated fire weather conditions expected. Dry
return flow will bring Elevated fire weather concerns across eastern
New Mexico into western Texas as a high builds across the southern
Plains and moves into the lower Mississippi River Valley.
...Eastern New Mexico into west Texas...
Across eastern New Mexico into western Texas, south to southeast
winds 10-15 mph will overlap relative humidity reductions to around
15-20%. An Elevated was maintained with this outlook to support this
threat. Fuels in this region are expected to be critically dry after
multiple days of dry/wind conditions.
...Southern/Central Texas...
Behind the southward advancing cold front, relative humidity
reductions to around 15-25% (locally around 10% in south Texas) will
overlap sustained north winds at 10-20 mph across portions of the
south Texas Brush Country to the Rio Grande Valley and across the
Middle Texas Coast. The D3 40 percent was maintained and expanded
across the coast with this update. Fuels across the south Texas
Brush Country are critically dry, with ERCs forecast to be around
the 75-90th percentile. Fuels across the middle Texas coast region
are more marginal but are forecast to be around the 50-75th
percentile by D2/Monday.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
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SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0439 PM CDT Sun Mar 15 2026
Valid 171200Z - 231200Z
...Synopsis...
A mid-level trough exits the Northeast by midweek while an
upper-level ridge builds across the southwestern U.S. This expanding
ridge across the Southwest will likely bring record breaking heat to
much of the southwestern U.S. Longer term guidance suggests a return
to a more active wave pattern at least across the northern CONUS
which could introduce another cold front into the central and
southern regions of the U.S. by early next week. However, the
opportunity for meaningful rainfall across much of the Intermountain
West and central/southern Plains remains very low.
...Day 3/Tuesday - Southern Plains...
Broad northwest flow over the northern Rockies should support the
development of lee surface troughing across the northern and central
High Plains on D3/Tuesday. Strengthening southwest winds across the
Southern Plains within a residual dry air mass will promote an
increasing fire weather threat for southeastern NM, west TX and
western OK. Some modification to the 40% critical probability area
was made based on latest model guidance, with some hints at a
corridor of enhanced southwest winds approaching 20 mph from TX Big
Bend northeastward into southwestern OK. Some uncertainty exists in
RH reductions which precludes introduction of 70% critical
probabilities at this time.
...Days 4-6/Wednesday-Friday - Central High Plains...
Persistent northwest flow aloft and subsequent surface lee troughing
response across the central/northern High Plains will promote a
multi-day dry and breezy downslope regime across southeastern WY and
adjacent NE Panhandle and far northeastern CO areas. Although some
recent precipitation has been observed, the building heat and dry
conditions should allow drying of fuels, particularly on D5/Thursday
and D6/Friday.
...Days 7-8/Saturday-Sunday...
Anomalous, likely record breaking temperatures, dry conditions but
generally light winds across the Intermountain West and Southwest
will persist under a strong upper-level ridge through the weekend.
Longer term ensemble guidance does indicate some de-amplification
and eastward shift of the ridge over the weekend while a mid-level
short wave trough traverses the northern tier of CONUS. This could
invite another cold front into the Plains and related fire weather
concerns over a dry landscape but uncertainty in timing limits
predictability for the weekend time frame.
..Williams.. 03/15/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
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