RSS Mesoscale Discussions from Storm Prediction Center
WW 259 SEVERE TSTM IA NE 010230Z - 010800Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 259
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
930 PM CDT Sun May 31 2026
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of
Western Iowa
Eastearn Nebraska
* Effective this Sunday night and Monday morning from 930 PM
until 300 AM CDT.
* Primary threats include...
Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2
inches in diameter possible
Isolated damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible
SUMMARY...Strong to severe thunderstorms may develop through late
evening into the overnight, with large hail as the primary hazard
within an unstable environment.
The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 60
statute miles east and west of a line from 35 miles north of Tekamah
NE to 40 miles south southeast of Omaha NE. For a complete depiction
of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS
WOU9).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.
&&
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 257...WW 258...
AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A
few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 550. Mean storm motion vector
27020.
...Guyer
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WW 258 SEVERE TSTM KS MO 010155Z - 010900Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 258
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
855 PM CDT Sun May 31 2026
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of
Eastern Kansas
Western and Central Missouri
* Effective this Sunday night and Monday morning from 855 PM
until 400 AM CDT.
* Primary threats include...
Scattered large hail likely with isolated very large hail events
to 2.5 inches in diameter possible
Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible
A tornado or two possible
SUMMARY...Severe storms will develop across eastern Kansas into
western Missouri the remainder of the evening. Large hail should be
the most common risk, but locally damaging wind potential may also
develop. Some tornado risk as well, especially along a residual
outflow boundary.
The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 50
statute miles north and south of a line from 55 miles east southeast
of Knob Noster MO to 35 miles west northwest of Emporia KS. For a
complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline
update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU8).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.
&&
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 257...
AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
2.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A
few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 550. Mean storm motion vector
29020.
...Guyer
Read more
WW 257 SEVERE TSTM IA MN NE SD 010105Z - 010600Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 257
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
805 PM CDT Sun May 31 2026
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of
Northwest Iowa
Southwest Minnesota
Northeast Nebraska
Southeast South Dakota
* Effective this Sunday night and Monday morning from 805 PM
until 100 AM CDT.
* Primary threats include...
Scattered large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible
Isolated damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible
A tornado or two possible
SUMMARY...A few supercells and severe multicells will be possible
through the evening. Large hail, locally damaging winds will remain
possible, and some tornado risk will exist particularly with storms
initiating/occurring near the boundary across the region.
The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 45
statute miles east and west of a line from 30 miles west northwest
of Worthington MN to 10 miles southeast of Sioux City IA. For a
complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline
update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU7).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.
&&
AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A
few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector
29020.
...Guyer
Read more
WW 0259 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 259
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 WSW SDA
TO 5 W OMA TO 20 SW TQE TO 20 NE TQE TO 35 E DNS.
..KERR..06/01/26
ATTN...WFO...DMX...OAX...
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 259
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
IAC003-009-029-071-085-129-137-145-155-165-173-010740-
IA
. IOWA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ADAMS AUDUBON CASS
FREMONT HARRISON MILLS
MONTGOMERY PAGE POTTAWATTAMIE
SHELBY TAYLOR
NEC021-055-177-010740-
NE
. NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BURT DOUGLAS WASHINGTON
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
Read more
WW 0258 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 258
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SSW EMP
TO 20 ENE MHK.
..KERR..06/01/26
ATTN...WFO...ICT...TOP...SGF...EAX...
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 258
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
KSC001-003-011-031-045-059-073-087-091-103-107-111-121-139-177-
197-207-209-010740-
KS
. KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ALLEN ANDERSON BOURBON
COFFEY DOUGLAS FRANKLIN
GREENWOOD JEFFERSON JOHNSON
LEAVENWORTH LINN LYON
MIAMI OSAGE SHAWNEE
WABAUNSEE WOODSON WYANDOTTE
MOC013-015-029-033-037-039-047-053-059-083-085-089-095-101-105-
107-141-159-165-167-177-185-195-217-010740-
MO
. MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BATES BENTON CAMDEN
CARROLL CASS CEDAR
CLAY COOPER DALLAS
HENRY HICKORY HOWARD
JACKSON JOHNSON LACLEDE
Read more
WW 0257 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 257
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 SSW SUX
TO 30 NW SLB TO 5 NNW SPW.
REMAINING VALID PORTION OF WW 257 MAY BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 01/07Z.
..KERR..06/01/26
ATTN...WFO...FSD...
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 257
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
IAC041-059-093-193-010600-
IA
. IOWA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CLAY DICKINSON IDA
WOODBURY
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
Read more
No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Mon Jun 1 06:27:11 UTC 2026.
SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0103 AM CDT Mon Jun 01 2026
Valid 011200Z - 021200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE CENTRAL PLAINS...AND THE MID-SOUTH...
...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms with large hail and severe wind gusts are expected
Monday afternoon and evening across parts of the central Plains.
Scattered strong to severe wind gusts will also be possible from the
Ozarks southeastward into parts of the Southeast.
...Synopsis...
An upper low over the northern Rockies will remain roughly in place
during the period. Moderate mid-level flow will extend into the
central Rockies. Rich moisture will be present from the Ozarks into
the Mid-South/Southeast.
...Colorado into western Nebraska and western Kansas...
Moderate mid-level flow is expected to persist across the central
Rockies along the southeastern flank of the upper low. This flow
will gradually diminish into southwest Kansas. With a surface low
developing in the vicinity of the Raton Mesa, moist upslope flow
will occur within the Front Range. Storms will initially develop
within the higher terrain and progress east. Storms near the surface
low will develop by late afternoon. Initial supercells can be
expected with a large to very-large hail risk. Hail around 2 inches
is more probable in northeast Colorado into southwest Nebraska where
upper-level flow will be stronger. A tornado or two will also be
possible with initial discrete storms given the backed surface winds
east of the Front Range. With time, upscale growth of activity can
be expected, particularly in Kansas where strong heating will
promote larger temperature-dewpoint spreads and steep low-level
lapse rates. Where clustering can occur, a greater severe wind
threat will develop. Given the somewhat narrow corridor of moderate
to strong buoyancy and enough deep-layer shear that may limit
duration of linear organization, confidence is low in placement of
greater wind probabilities.
...Mid-South...
Convection that is currently ongoing in eastern Kansas/western
Missouri is expected to track south and east with time. Ahead of
this activity, a reservoir of 70+ F dewpoints will exist across the
Mid-South into parts of the Southeast. Depending on the timing of
the convection, some strengthening of this activity can be expected
into the afternoon. Mid-level flow across the region will not be
overly strong, but around 30 kt of effective shear appears
reasonable. Wind probabilities were increased within the Mid-South
to account for the anticipated MCS. There still remains some
question over the timing/placement of convection early this morning.
Adjustments to the Slight risk may be needed depending on
observational trends.
...Arkansas...
Model trends show potential for convection to develop along outflow
and move into strong/extreme buoyancy in Arkansas. As in the
Mid-South, timing of when this occur will play a role in the
intensity of the activity, especially given the weaker shear with
southwestward extent. Damaging winds and isolated large hail are
possible with the strongest activity.
...Northern Plains...
Stronger mid-level flow around the upper low will be present in this
region. Moisture/buoyancy will be more limited, however. Cold
temperatures aloft will promote an isolated hail risk with storms
that develop in the surface trough.
..Wendt/Moore.. 06/01/2026
Read more
SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1259 AM CDT Mon Jun 01 2026
Valid 021200Z - 031200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE NORTHERN PLAINS...
...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms with large hail, severe wind gusts and potentially an
isolated tornado threat are expected on Tuesday afternoon and
evening in parts of the northern Plains. Strong wind gusts and hail
will also be possible in parts of the southern and central High
Plains. A few severe wind gusts may also occur from southern Georgia
into northern and eastern Florida.
...Northern Plains...
A mid-level shortwave trough will move northeastward on Tuesday over
the top of a moist and unstable airmass located in the northern
Plains. At the surface, a south-to-north corridor of low-level
moisture will be in place across the Dakotas. Thunderstorms are
expected to develop along the western edge of the moist sector
during the afternoon, being supported by large-scale ascent
associated with the shortwave trough. Storms will likely increase in
coverage during the late afternoon and early evening, with multiple
small storm clusters moving northeastward across the region.
Along and near the axis of low-level moisture, MLCAPE is forecast to
increase into the 1500 to 2500 J/kg range by afternoon. Within this
moist airmass, the most favorable environment for severe storms is
forecast near the mid-level trough in central North Dakota. Forecast
soundings around Bismarck at 21Z have 0-6 km shear in the 40 to 45
knot range with 700-500 mb lapse rates near 8 C/km, suggesting that
supercells with large hail will be possible. In addition, late
afternoon forecast soundings have 0-3 km storm-relative helicity in
the 200 to 250 m2/s2 range, which could support an isolated tornado
threat. Severe wind gusts would also be possible with any organized
clusters that can persist from late afternoon into the evening.
...Southern and Central High Plains...
Southwesterly mid-level flow will be in place on Tuesday in the
southern and central Plains, over the western edge of the moist
sector. Although model forecasts suggest that large-scale forcing
will be limited in most areas, some models forecast a corridor of
maximized low-level convergence in the afternoon over eastern
Colorado and eastern New Mexico. This would support isolated to
scattered thunderstorm development, with storms moving
east-northeastward across the southern and central High Plains
during the afternoon and evening. Forecast soundings to the east of
this axis of low-level convergence during the late afternoon have
0-6 km shear in the 20 to 25 knot range with 700-500 mb lapse rates
near 8 C/km. This suggests that hail will be possible. Isolated
severe wind gusts may also occur, especially if a convective cluster
can become somewhat organized during the early to mid evening.
...Northern and Eastern Florida/Southern Georgia...
An upper-level trough will move southward into the Southeast on
Tuesday, as a cold front advances southward into southern Georgia.
Along and to the south of the front, surface dewpoints from the mid
60s to lower 70s F will contribute to the development of moderate
instability by afternoon. Within this unstable airmass, low-level
lapse rates will become steep during the mid to late afternoon,
which may support an isolated wind-damage threat with the stronger
multicells. An isolated potential for severe wind gusts will also be
possible in the afternoon along sea breeze boundaries near the coast
of northern and eastern Florida.
..Broyles.. 06/01/2026
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SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0123 AM CDT Mon Jun 01 2026
Valid 011200Z - 021200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
...Synopsis...
Fire weather concerns will remain limited for today across the
country. Early-morning surface observations continue to show a very
dry air mass across eastern AZ to central NM where fuels have been
slowly curing. Modest southwesterly flow aloft will persist across
the central Rockies, and will promote weak surface pressure falls
along the High Plains. Consequently, flow across the
Southwest/southern Rockies will remain fairly weak again today with
only localized areas where winds will exceed 15 mph (most likely in
terrain-prone regions of northern NM). As such, the potential for
widespread fire weather concerns will remain limited. Similarly,
anomalously dry conditions will continue across the Great Lakes
region for today, but building surface high pressure will modulate
wind speeds and the overall fire weather threat.
..Moore.. 06/01/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0125 AM CDT Mon Jun 01 2026
Valid 021200Z - 031200Z
...Synopsis...
Fire weather concerns for Tuesday will primarily be associated with
dry lightning potential across parts of far eastern Arizona and
western New Mexico. A weak upper wave is evident off the Baja CA
coast that will migrate east towards the Southwest over the next 24
hours. Weak pressure falls across the interior West will promote
eastward low-level moisture transport into the southern Rockies. The
western periphery of the moist plume should spread into eastern AZ
by Tuesday afternoon with PWAT values on the order of 0.4 to 0.5
inch. While modest, this will provide sufficient buoyancy to support
isolated thunderstorms as weak ascent overspreads the region ahead
of the approaching wave. A deeply mixed boundary layer and 15-20
knot storm motions will help limit rainfall amounts and support the
potential for dry lightning strikes over a region with receptive
fine fuels after several days of warm and dry conditions.
..Moore.. 06/01/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
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