RSS Mesoscale Discussions from Storm Prediction Center
No watches are valid as of Mon Jan 19 22:10:02 UTC 2026.
No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Mon Jan 19 22:10:02 UTC 2026.
SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0125 PM CST Mon Jan 19 2026
Valid 192000Z - 201200Z
...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are not expected across the U.S. today or tonight.
...Synopsis...
No changes.
..Squitieri.. 01/19/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1025 AM CST Mon Jan 19 2026/
...Discussion...
Influenced by a longwave trough from the Rockies to the western
Atlantic, mostly offshore/continental low-level trajectories will be
hostile for thunderstorms across the CONUS.
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SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0117 PM CST Mon Jan 19 2026
Valid 211200Z - 221200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Widely scattered weak thunderstorm activity appears possible
Wednesday into Wednesday night across parts of eastern Texas into
the lower Mississippi Valley.
...Discussion...
Models indicate that amplified large-scale mid-level troughing will
generally be maintained across much of interior and eastern North
America during this period. However, it appears that the southern
tier of the U.S. will continue to come under the increasing
influence of westerlies emanating from the southern mid- to
subtropical latitudes of the eastern Pacific.
Within an amplifying belt, including building mid-level ridging
across the mid-latitude eastern Pacific, a notable developing
mid-level low may continue to slowly dig toward the southern
California/northern Baja Pacific coast. It appears that this may be
accompanied by initially elevated moisture return from the lower
latitude eastern Pacific, across coastal areas into the Sierra
Nevada. However, the mid-level cold core, supportive of better
boundary-layer destabilization and the development of thermodynamic
profiles potentially more conducive to thunderstorm development,
will likely remain offshore through at least this period.
Downstream, lower/mid-tropospheric moisture return may continue to
overspread parts of southern/eastern Texas into the lower
Mississippi Valley Wednesday through Wednesday night. It appears
that weak boundary-layer destabilization, and one potential area of
thunderstorm development, aided by forcing for ascent downstream of
an initial perturbation emanating from the subtropical eastern
Pacific, will remain offshore of coastal areas. However, elevated
inland moistening beneath residually cold mid-level air might become
sufficient for convection occasionally becoming capable of producing
lightning by late Wednesday into Wednesday evening.
..Kerr.. 01/19/2026
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SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0152 PM CST Mon Jan 19 2026
Valid 201200Z - 211200Z
...Central High Plains...
An approaching mid-level wave and associated increasing northwest
flow aloft, coinciding with a deepening surface low in the lee of
the Southern Rockies will support downslope enhanced west/northwest
surface winds across portions of the central High Plains Tuesday.
Only minor changes were needed to the existing Elevated highlights
across far northeastern CO, extreme southeastern WY, southwestern NE
and far northwestern KS to account for recent snowfall from the CO
Front Range into western KS. Farther south, downslope enhanced
drying and warming should result in relative humidity as low as 10
percent Tuesday. This aligned with sustained west winds of 15-20 mph
and dry fuels will support at least elevated fire weather conditions
for several hours in the lee of the Sangre De Cristo Range. Locally
critical conditions are possible where wind speeds of 25 mph develop
in favored terrain gaps. Thus, Elevated highlights were introduced
across portions of south-central CO.
..Williams.. 01/19/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0134 AM CST Mon Jan 19 2026/
...Synopsis...
Embedded within a belt of enhanced northwest flow aloft, a midlevel
impulse and related jet streak will overspread the northern/central
Rockies and adjacent High Plains during the afternoon. At the same
time, an accompanying surface low will track southeastward along the
northern/central High Plains.
This will result in a tightening pressure gradient and 20-25 mph
sustained northwesterly surface winds (with higher gusts) across
parts of the central High Plains. The combination of these winds and
around 15-20 percent RH will favor elevated to locally critical
fire-weather conditions. Preceding snowfall in the vicinity
(especially along the southern flank of the Elevated area) does cast
some uncertainty on the overall fire risk, and fuel trends will be
monitored for future adjustments to these highlights.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
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SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0341 PM CST Mon Jan 19 2026
Valid 211200Z - 271200Z
...Synopsis...
Reduced fire weather concerns are expected across CONUS through
early next week. An arctic air mass intrusion begins Day 4/Thursday
across the Northern Plains as upper-level troughing impinges on
coastal California. The upper-level trough moves into the Southwest
and Southern Plains by Day 5/Friday, interacting with deeper Gulf
moisture to support expansive precipitation across much of the
Southern U.S. through the weekend as the trough translates eastward.
The lingering cold and stable air mass across the eastern U.S. along
with likely widespread rain and potential snow over much of the
Southern U.S. should mitigate the overall fire weather threat
through early next week.
..Williams.. 01/19/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
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