RSS Mesoscale Discussions from Storm Prediction Center
WW 240 SEVERE TSTM TX 222155Z - 230400Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 240
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
455 PM CDT Fri May 22 2026
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of
The South Plains of Texas
* Effective this Friday afternoon and evening from 455 PM until
1100 PM CDT.
* Primary threats include...
Scattered damaging winds and isolated significant gusts to 75
mph possible
Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2
inches in diameter possible
SUMMARY...Multicell storm clusters/mergers are expected to spread
slowly eastward through late evening. The strongest initial storms
could produce isolated large hail of 1-2 inches in diameter, though
the more consistent threat will be severe outflow gusts of 60-75
mph.
The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 50
statute miles east and west of a line from 55 miles northwest of
Childress TX to 65 miles southeast of Lubbock TX. For a complete
depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update
(WOUS64 KWNS WOU0).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.
&&
AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 65 knots. A
few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector
25015.
...Thompson
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WW 0240 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0240 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET
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No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Fri May 22 22:15:05 UTC 2026.
SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0234 PM CDT Fri May 22 2026
Valid 222000Z - 231200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
NORTHWEST TEXAS AND WESTERN OKLAHOMA...
...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms with large hail and severe gusts are possible late
this afternoon into the evening in parts of the southern High
Plains. A few brief tornadoes are also possible across the Mid
South.
...20z Update...
Only minor adjustments have been made to the Marginal (level 1 of 5)
risk across southwest Kansas based on the current location of the
surface cold front. Scattered thunderstorms will increase across the
southern High Plains late this afternoon into this evening, posing a
risk for damaging wind gusts and isolated large hail.
Across the TN Valley vicinity, sporadic rotating storms may persist
another couple of hours and a brief tornado is possible. However,
the 30-40 kt low-level jet will continue to shift northward with
time and away from the axis of stronger instability. Otherwise,
sporadic gusty winds are possible through evening. For more short
term details, reference MCDs 825 and 826.
..Leitman.. 05/22/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1104 AM CDT Fri May 22 2026/
...TX/OK...
A weak upper trough is moving across CO today, with the tail end of
large scale forcing spreading across the TX Panhandle. At the
surface, southeasterly winds will maintain a moist air mass into the
region, where a dryline will become the focus for afternoon
thunderstorm development. Weak mid-level winds of 20-30 knots
suggest that storms will be a mix of multicell and supercell
structures capable of large hail and damaging winds. Merging
outflows are expected as activity spreads eastward into western OK
and eventually north TX tonight, with a continued risk of locally
damaging winds.
...Northeast NE/KS/Northwest OK...
A cold front is sagging southeastward into KS/NE, where a moist and
moderately unstable air mass will be present this afternoon.
Scattered thunderstorms are expected along/ahead of the front, with
a low-end risk of hail in the stronger cells.
...TN/MS/AL/GA...
A broad area of moderately strong southerly low-level winds are
present today over parts of the Mid-South and TN Valley, along with
a very moist air mass with dewpoints in the 70s. Forecast soundings
show rather weak CAPE, but sufficient low-level shear for some
concern for tornadoes today. There have been occasional
mesocyclones in the thunderstorms in this region, and that will
likely continue through the afternoon as the low-level jet shifts
northward into northern AL/middle TN. Overall confidence in the
tornado threat suggests the threat remains Marginal, but a tactical
upgrade to portions of the area remains possible this afternoon.
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SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1228 PM CDT Fri May 22 2026
Valid 231200Z - 241200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PORTIONS OF
THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...TEXAS HILL COUNTRY INTO DEEP SOUTH TEXAS
AND MIDDLE TEXAS COAST...GEORGIA INTO UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA...PARTS
OF UPPER OHIO VALLEY...
...SUMMARY...
Scattered strong to potentially severe storms appear possible on
Saturday from the Raton Mesa vicinity into the Oklahoma and Texas
Panhandles and southward near the middle Texas Coast. Additional
severe thunderstorms will be possible in portions of central Georgia
and parts of the Upper Ohio Valley.
...Southern High Plains...
Moderate mid-level flow across the central Rockies will persist in
the wake of a shortwave trough lifting into the northern Plains.
Flow will generally weaken with southern extent into the High
Plains. Even so, moist southeasterly winds into the higher terrain
will promote effective shear around 35 kt. The main question will be
the quality of the moisture with convection expected to impact parts
of the region on Friday evening into the overnight. The most likely
scenario is that isolated storm development occur within the Raton
Mesa and evolves eastward/southeastward. Storms would be initially
supercells capable of large hail and severe winds. Shear does weaken
to the east so some clustering is possible as outflow interact.
Another possibility, though more uncertain, is that convection could
develop farther southeast along a remnant outflow boundary, but this
activity would likely move into an environment with weaker shear
quickly.
...Upper Ohio Valley...
A shortwave trough now in the Mid-South will lift northeast into the
Ohio Valley/Great Lakes on Saturday. A modest surface low, though
slowly weakening with time, will pull upper 60s F dewpoints into
parts of the region. Morning precipitation is expected to clear out
and allow for at least filtered surface heating. The enhanced 850 mb
winds, proximity to the warm front, and modest effective shear
(around 30 kt) could potentially support a stronger storm or two.
Though conditional, a brief tornado would be possible in this
environment.
...Georgia/South Carolina...
A weak shortwave trough will move into Georgia. Low 70s F dewpoints
and temperatures in the 80s F will support 1500-2500 J/kg MLCAPE
despite weak mid-level lapse rates. Scattered to numerous storms
appear possible near the shortwave as well as along the wedge front
in South Carolina. Shear will be weak, but a few water-loaded
downbursts may produce damaging winds.
...Hill Country/South Texas/Middle Texas Coast...
A shortwave trough within the subtropical jet will approach the
region during the afternoon/early evening. A very moist (70+
dewpoints) airmass will be in place. Isolated to widely scattered
convection will be possible from the Rio Grande vicinity and perhaps
along the Gulf Breeze front. Effective shear of 30-40 kt and steep
low/mid-level lapse rates will support the threat of large hail and
severe winds.
..Wendt.. 05/22/2026
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SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0227 PM CDT Fri May 22 2026
Valid 241200Z - 251200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL
NEBRASKA INTO SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA...
...SUMMARY...
Widely scattered thunderstorm activity will be possible from the
southern/central Plains to the southeastern US into the lower Ohio
Valley. A few stronger storms may be possible from central Nebraska
into southwest Minnesota.
...Synopsis...
Upper-level flow ill become more quasi-zonal on Sunday across the
northern tier of the CONUS. Flow for central/southern portions of
the U.S. will be much weaker. A surface low within the Canadian
Prairie will develop ahead of the stronger shortwave trough off the
Northwest coast. This feature will draw at least modest moisture
northward into the central and parts of the northern Plains.
...Nebraska into Minnesota...
Isolated to widely scattered storms are possible along a relatively
weak surface trough/theta-e gradient. Forcing for ascent will not be
that strong as the modest trough slides east of the region through
the day. However, temperatures in the mid/upper 80s F may be
sufficient along with the weak surface convergence to initiate
storms. Steep mid-level lapse rates, relatively long hodographs, and
30-40 kt of northwesterly shear would suggest large hail potential.
The boundary layer will also be well mixed so severe wind gusts will
also be possible.
..Wendt.. 05/22/2026
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SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0224 PM CDT Fri May 22 2026
Valid 231200Z - 241200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
Warming temperatures under a gradually building ridge will support
RH reductions of 10-15% across much of the Southwest, with
marginally higher RH farther north into the Great Basin and Upper CO
River Basin. Meager surface pressure gradient magnitudes across the
Intermountain West will limit broader fire weather concerns across
the region, although localized elevated fire weather concerns,
including sustained west/southwest winds of 15 mph, are still
possible in favored terrain/gap areas.
A mid-level perturbation encroaching into northern CA/Sierra Nevada,
along with some mid-level moisture and instability, could bring
isolated high-based convection to portions of the Great Basin,
northern CA and southern OR over higher terrain Saturday afternoon.
However, a limited lightning potential along with sub-critical fuels
should temper a broader lightning ignition threat.
..Williams.. 05/22/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0101 AM CDT Fri May 22 2026/
...Synopsis...
Upper-level troughing will persist across the northern Great
Plains/Midwest on D2/Saturday as ridging begins to build across the
southern Great Plains and Four Corners region. Upper-level ridging
will also remain in place across the Southeast, with largely zonal
flow across the Pacific Northwest. At the surface, a frontal system
is forecast to extend from the southern/central Great Plains
eastward through the mid-Mississippi Valley and into the
Mid-Atlantic. Several mid-level perturbations will promote the
potential for wetting rainfall across much of the Southern Plains
and eastern US. This pattern is expected to largely dampen fire
weather concerns across much of the eastern CONUS.
Farther west, generally light surface winds are expected to preclude
widespread fire weather concerns across much of the West. The
exception will be across portions of the Great Basin where localized
breezy conditions (winds of 10-15 mph) may briefly overlap reduced
RH values of 10-15%. This may promote locally elevated fire weather
concerns across portions of the area; however, elevated highlights
have been withheld at this time given the expectation for any such
overlap to remain limited in duration.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
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SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0431 PM CDT Fri May 22 2026
Valid 241200Z - 301200Z
...Synopsis...
A more amplified, stagnant upper wave pattern is expected to emerge
across CONUS through next week. A robust upper-level trough entering
the Northwest and subsequent increasing southwest flow aloft should
bring fire weather concerns back into portions of the Intermountain
West Days 4-5/Monday-Tuesday. A highly amplified, blocking
upper-level ridge develops across the central U.S. for the latter
part of next week, with troughing likely remaining entrenched across
the western CONUS. This synoptic pattern should support a fire
weather threat across portions of the Southwest Days
6-7/Wednesday-Thursday.
...Day 4-5/Monday-Tuesday...
...Great Basin...
Dry and breezy southwest flow ahead of upper-level troughing pushing
into the Pacific Northwest should promote a fire weather threat
across portions of the Great Basin on Day 4/Monday. The upper trough
and attendant cold front shift southeast on Day 5/Tuesday in
addition to an emerging surface low across NV. A 40% critical
probability area was introduced into east-central NV and western UT
where stronger southwest winds, low RH and dry fuels align.
...Southwest...
The arrival of an upper trough across the Desert Southwest
accompanied by a mid-level moisture plume should support high-based
showers and thunderstorms over the higher terrain of northeastern AZ
and western NM on Day 4/Monday afternoon. Limited surface rainfall
amid a dry boundary layer is expected particularly west of the Rio
Grande, where precipitable water values of 0.75" or less should
reside. Forecast guidance indicates this moisture plume will be
transient across the Southwest, with a return to dry southwest flow
to the region by Day 5/Tuesday. A 10% probability for dry
thunderstorms has been added as fuels continue to dry over the
weekend, becoming more receptive by Monday.
...Day 6-7/Wednesday-Thursday...
Longer term model guidance shows a fairly stagnant upper-level
pattern remaining in place across the CONUS, as a blocking ridge
keeps active troughing across the West and Northeast for much of
next week. A fire weather threat is likely to persist across
portions of the Southwest that receive minimal rainfall on Day
5/Monday under a dry southwest flow regime. 40% critical
probabilities were introduced into the Lower CO River Basin and
adjacent Four Corners region for this lingering fire weather
concern.
..Williams.. 05/22/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
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