RSS Mesoscale Discussions from Storm Prediction Center
No watches are valid as of Sat Jun 20 02:57:01 UTC 2026.
No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Sat Jun 20 02:57:01 UTC 2026.
SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0756 PM CDT Fri Jun 19 2026
Valid 200100Z - 201200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF
SOUTHEAST MN INTO WESTERN WI...EASTERN NM/CO...KS...SOUTHWEST
NE...AND NORTHWEST/NORTH-CENTRAL NV...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may produce gusty winds and
hail tonight across parts of the Upper Midwest and southern/central
High Plains. Storms with localized severe gusts also remain possible
across parts of northern Nevada and southeast Kansas.
...Southeast MN into WI...
Scattered strong to locally severe storms are ongoing this evening
from parts of southeast MN into northwest WI. The regional
environment is characterized by modest buoyancy (with MLCAPE of
around 500 J/kg), but favorable deep-layer shear. A midlevel
shortwave trough moving across MN will help to sustain convection
through the evening, though a gradual weakening of already modest
buoyancy will tend to diminish the severe threat with time.
Localized hail and strong/damaging gusts remain possible with the
strongest ongoing cells before storms weaken later this evening.
...Parts of south-central/southeast KS...
A small thunderstorm cluster has recently intensified north of
Wichita, with reports of localized strong to severe gusts. This
cluster may continue southeastward with a threat of localized severe
gusts through dusk. See MCD 1207 for more information.
...Parts of NV...
Inverted-V profiles (as observed in the 00Z LKN sounding) will
continue to support a threat of isolated severe gusts with
high-based convection that will move across northwest/north-central
NV into this evening. Some threat may reach the NV/OR/ID border
region before nocturnal stabilization results in a general weakening
trend.
...Parts of eastern NM/CO into northwest KS/southwest NE...
A thunderstorm cluster over east-central NM may continue to pose a
threat of isolated hail and severe gusts early this evening, within
an environment characterized by MLCAPE of around 1000 J/kg and
modestly favorable deep-layer shear. Nocturnal cooling/stabilization
should result in a weakening trend with time.
Guidance continues to vary regarding potential for robust storm
development across eastern CO through the evening. Forcing is
generally weak, but MLCAPE of 1000-1500 J/kg and moderate deep-layer
shear will conditionally support organized convection, if any storms
can be sustained.
Later tonight, elevated convection may develop across parts of
northwest KS/southwest NE, within a modest low-level warm advection
regime. Guidance remains in poor agreement regarding the coverage
(if any) and intensity of storms within this regime, but moderate
elevated buoyancy and sufficient deep-layer shear could support a
threat of isolated hail and localized strong to severe gusts.
...Parts of the Southeast...
Localized strong storms persist this evening across parts of the
Southeast, within a very moist (PW greater than 2 inches)
environment. Localized damaging gusts may accompany the strongest
storms through sunset, but weak deep-layer shear and the effects of
extensive convective overturning are expected to limit organized
severe potential.
..Dean.. 06/20/2026
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