RSS Mesoscale Discussions from Storm Prediction Center
No watches are valid as of Thu Jul 23 19:42:01 UTC 2026.
MD 1716 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF THE COLUMBIA BASIN
Mesoscale Discussion 1716
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0219 PM CDT Thu Jul 23 2026
Areas affected...portions of the Columbia Basin
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 231919Z - 232115Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent
SUMMARY...Isolated to widely scattered, high-based thunderstorms are
expected to develop along the high-terrain across portions of the
Columbia Basin this afternoon. Isolated severe wind gusts and large
hail may occur with these storms.
DISCUSSION...Latest visible satellite imagery depicts a developing
thunderstorm in far southeastern Oregon. As continued heating
further deepens boundary layer mixing through the afternoon,
additional convective initiation is expected along the high-terrain
of eastern Oregon, far southwestern Washington, and western Idaho
over the next 1-2 hours. Regional 18z observed soundings from BOI
and OTX depicted increasingly well-mixed boundary layer profiles
with steep low-to-mid level lapse rates. Enhanced southwesterly flow
downstream of an upper low centered offshore of the Pacific
Northwest was also sampled by these soundings and is supporting
elongated, relatively straight hodographs. While available buoyancy
is forecast to remain fairly weak (less than 1000 J/kg), a
combination of weak supercell structures and storm clusters will
favor an isolated threat for severe wind gusts (60-65 mph) and large
hail. This threat is expected to remain too isolated for watch
issuance, but trends will continue to be monitored.
..Chalmers/Smith.. 07/23/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...MSO...BOI...OTX...PDT...
LAT...LON 43461639 42831660 42291699 42081736 42081764 42251801
42581830 43301857 44611908 45331898 45951844 46271803
46361717 46241673 45861644 45271631 44581627 43831631
43461639
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN
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MD 1715 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO...SOUTHEAST COLORADO...SOUTHWEST KANSAS AND THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE
Mesoscale Discussion 1715
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0113 PM CDT Thu Jul 23 2026
Areas affected...northeast New Mexico...southeast
Colorado...southwest Kansas and the Oklahoma Panhandle
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 231813Z - 231945Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent
SUMMARY...Isolated strong to severe storms this afternoon.
DISCUSSION...Storms have started to develop over the higher terrain
near the Raton Mesa. Temperatures in the upper 90sF with dewpoints
near 50F in the adjacent Plains have mostly eroded CINH across the
area. While instability remains relatively weak, it may be
sufficient to maintain these storms as they move off the higher
terrain and eventually into a more unstable airmass to the east.
Shear is mostly weak, but steep low-level lapse rates will support
some threat for isolated strong to severe wind gusts. In the short
term, the next 1 to 2 hours, watch potential is low. However, as
further destabilization continues and storms move toward the more
favorable airmass across southwest Kansas, watch potential will
increase later this afternoon and into the evening.
..Bentley/Smith.. 07/23/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...DDC...AMA...PUB...ABQ...
LAT...LON 36460434 37150470 37810479 38010427 38240280 38170180
37920119 37130112 36720134 36160195 36040363 36460434
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN
Read more
SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1118 AM CDT Thu Jul 23 2026
Valid 231630Z - 241200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR SOUTHWEST
KANSAS...
...SUMMARY...
Widely scattered severe storms capable of severe wind gusts and
large hail are possible over portions of the central and southern
High Plains this afternoon and evening. More isolated occurrences
of damaging wind are possible from the middle Texas coast into Deep
South Texas, the eastern Carolinas, and parts of the Columbia Basin
into the northern Intermountain region.
...Central/southern High Plains including western Kansas...
Surface analysis late this morning places a front draped from far
southwest KS extending into eastern CO. The front and a dryline
farther south will focus thunderstorm development later this
afternoon as strong heating results in appreciable boundary layer
destabilization. Water-vapor imagery shows an impulse over central
CO moving slowly east to the north of a mid-level anticyclone
centered over northwest TX. This upper disturbance and associated
forcing for ascent coupled with weakening convective inhibition will
lead to scattered storms developing by late afternoon. Models
feature a vertically veering wind profile with 30-35 kt of
deep-layer shear over western KS near the front, which will be
sufficient for at least episodic supercell structures with a risk
for large hail. Some upscale growth into a small cluster may occur
during the evening as a southerly LLJ intensifies. Scattered severe
gusts will be possible with this activity. Farther west and south
along the dryline, a deeply mixed boundary layer and weaker shear
will favor an isolated risk for severe gusts with the stronger
downdrafts.
...Middle Texas Coast to Deep South Texas...
As Bertha continues westward over the northwest Gulf, a belt of
enhanced mid-level flow will precede Bertha and spread atop a hot
and moist boundary layer inland, with moderate instability
developing by afternoon along the middle Texas coast. Ample
deep-layer shear within the southwest quadrant of the parent system
may support some cold pool organization. Steepened low-level lapse
rates and high PW may yield a localized risk for severe gusts with
scattered storms that develop near the coast and move inland over
the coastal plain through the evening.
...Columbia Basin/northern Intermountain West...
Weak height falls are expected while mid/upper-level winds
strengthen regionally ahead of an upper low off the coast of the
Pacific Northwest. Daytime heating along favored terrain, in
conjunction with the glancing influence of the passing disturbance,
will aid in isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms by
mid-afternoon within a moderately unstable and steep lapse rate
environment. The strengthening upper-level winds will enhance
vertical shear, supporting the potential for some storm organization
with an associated risk for locally damaging wind gusts and
marginally severe hail.
...Eastern Carolinas...
Midday visible-satellite imagery shows scattered
showers/thunderstorms along a west-east oriented frontal zone over
southern NC. Cloud breaks south of convective cloud debris will
promote additional heating near the coast and moderate
destabilization by mid afternoon. A few of the stronger storms that
develop this afternoon into the early evening will probably pose a
localized risk for damaging gusts.
..Smith/Chalmers.. 07/23/2026
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SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0239 PM CDT Thu Jul 23 2026
Valid 232000Z - 241200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF
SOUTHWEST KANSAS...
...SUMMARY...
Widely scattered severe storms capable of severe wind gusts and
large hail are possible over portions of the central and southern
High Plains this afternoon and evening. More isolated occurrences
of damaging wind are possible from the middle Texas coast into Deep
South Texas and parts of the Columbia Basin into the northern
Intermountain region.
...20z Update Carolinas...
A broad area of showers and thunderstorms is ongoing south of the
quasi-stationary front across central NC. The environment south of
the boundary into SC is warm and moderately unstable. However,
vertical shear decreases substantially farther south from the
boundary. This has resulted in little storm organization thus far.
While sporadic damaging gusts remain possible, the tendency for
convection to focus along the boundary where there is less buoyancy
suggests severe potential is limited. 5% wind probabilities have
been removed with this update.
...Central and southern High Plains...
Scattered convection developing off the higher terrain and more
isolated development along the stalled surface front should
gradually coalesce across the High Plains late this afternoon into
this evening. With 30-35 kt of deep-layer shear near the front,
episodic supercell structures with a risk for large hail or damaging
gusts will be possible. Eventually, upscale growth into one or more
small clusters may occur during the evening as a southerly LLJ
intensifies. Scattered severe gusts will be possible with this
activity into the overnight hours.
...OR and ID...
Initial high-based thunderstorms are developing east of the upper
low over the Pacific Northwest. Enhanced southwesterly flow aloft,
and seasonably warm/moist conditions, associated with a plume of
monsoonal moisture, will support a risk for locally damaging wind
gusts and marginally severe hail this afternoon and evening. See
MCD#1716 for additional information.
..Lyons.. 07/23/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1118 AM CDT Thu Jul 23 2026/
...Central/southern High Plains including western Kansas...
Surface analysis late this morning places a front draped from far
southwest KS extending into eastern CO. The front and a dryline
farther south will focus thunderstorm development later this
afternoon as strong heating results in appreciable boundary layer
destabilization. Water-vapor imagery shows an impulse over central
CO moving slowly east to the north of a mid-level anticyclone
centered over northwest TX. This upper disturbance and associated
forcing for ascent coupled with weakening convective inhibition will
lead to scattered storms developing by late afternoon. Models
feature a vertically veering wind profile with 30-35 kt of
deep-layer shear over western KS near the front, which will be
sufficient for at least episodic supercell structures with a risk
for large hail. Some upscale growth into a small cluster may occur
during the evening as a southerly LLJ intensifies. Scattered severe
gusts will be possible with this activity. Farther west and south
along the dryline, a deeply mixed boundary layer and weaker shear
will favor an isolated risk for severe gusts with the stronger
downdrafts.
...Middle Texas Coast to Deep South Texas...
As Bertha continues westward over the northwest Gulf, a belt of
enhanced mid-level flow will precede Bertha and spread atop a hot
and moist boundary layer inland, with moderate instability
developing by afternoon along the middle Texas coast. Ample
deep-layer shear within the southwest quadrant of the parent system
may support some cold pool organization. Steepened low-level lapse
rates and high PW may yield a localized risk for severe gusts with
scattered storms that develop near the coast and move inland over
the coastal plain through the evening.
...Columbia Basin/northern Intermountain West...
Weak height falls are expected while mid/upper-level winds
strengthen regionally ahead of an upper low off the coast of the
Pacific Northwest. Daytime heating along favored terrain, in
conjunction with the glancing influence of the passing disturbance,
will aid in isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms by
mid-afternoon within a moderately unstable and steep lapse rate
environment. The strengthening upper-level winds will enhance
vertical shear, supporting the potential for some storm organization
with an associated risk for locally damaging wind gusts and
marginally severe hail.
...Eastern Carolinas...
Midday visible-satellite imagery shows scattered
showers/thunderstorms along a west-east oriented frontal zone over
southern NC. Cloud breaks south of convective cloud debris will
promote additional heating near the coast and moderate
destabilization by mid afternoon. A few of the stronger storms that
develop this afternoon into the early evening will probably pose a
localized risk for damaging gusts.
Read more
SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1225 PM CDT Thu Jul 23 2026
Valid 241200Z - 251200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS NORTH DAKOTA INTO
NORTHWEST MINNESOTA...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe thunderstorms capable of large hail and damaging
wind are possible on Friday across portions of the Dakotas into
northern Minnesota.
...Synopsis...
A mid-level trough will move across the Canadian Prairies D2/Friday,
with a belt of enhanced westerly flow aloft overspreading the High
Plains into the Upper Midwest. At the surface, a low will move
across central Manitoba with a trailing cold front extending into
the northern Plains.
...Dakotas/Northern Minnesota...
Westerly flow aloft from the trough across Canada will move across
the northern periphery of a strengthening mid-level ridge across the
central Plains. With warming in the 850-700 mb level, it appears
that capping will likely be in place across much of the corridor
over the central Dakotas ahead of the surface front. Steep low to
mid-level lapse rates should aid in at least moderate instability
developing through the afternoon. As the wave ejects, some
eroding/weakening of the cap is expected across the central Dakotas.
Strong deep layer shear profiles will support initial supercell
development along the front. Large hail and damaging wind will be
the primary threats. It remains somewhat uncertain if storms will be
able to root and become surface based, with increasing inhibition to
the east. If a supercell can remain surface based as it moves into
increasing inhibition to the east, tornado potential will increase
given favorable deep layer shear and enlarged hodographs.
Storms will continue to spread eastward through the
afternoon/evening into northern/central Minnesota. With increasing
inhibition, it is likely that storm mode will gradually shift to
elevated clusters, with potential for damaging wind.
...Carolinas...
Scattered thunderstorm development is expected near a surface
boundary sagging across the Carolinas Friday afternoon. Vertically
veering flow, increasing to around 20-30 kt around 1-3 km will
provide around 25 kt effective shear. Given the moderately unstable
air mass and steep low-level lapse rates, a few isolated organized
storms/clusters may produce damaging winds.
..Thornton.. 07/23/2026
Read more
SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0220 PM CDT Thu Jul 23 2026
Valid 251200Z - 261200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
SOUTHEASTERN ARIZONA...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe storms will be possible across portions of
southeastern Arizona on Saturday.
...Synopsis...
High amplitude ridging will build in across the central US on
D3/Saturday. West to northwesterly flow aloft will move through the
northern periphery of the ridge across the Great Lakes into the Ohio
Valley.
...Southeastern Arizona...
Surface high pressure across the Four Corners will bring favorably
moist east to southeasterly flow into southeastern Arizona.
Convection will likely develop along the high terrain and spread
westward with time through the afternoon/evening. Deep layer shear
around 20-25 kts may allow for isolated organized storms capable of
severe gusts, given deeply mixed profiles and steep low to mid-level
lapse rates amid inverted-v soundings.
...Upper Midwest into the Great Lakes Region...
Several embedded disturbances will rotate through the flow across
the Upper Midwest into the Great Lakes Region. Moderate to strong
instability is progged to extend across this region, however,
warming in the 850-700 mb will likely result in strong capping
across much of the region from the Great Lakes into the Midwest and
Ohio Valley. This will likely inhibit convective development and
overall severe potential in these regions.
..Thornton.. 07/23/2026
Read more
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1139 AM CDT Thu Jul 23 2026
Valid 231700Z - 241200Z
...17z Update...
The prior forecast remains valid with no changes. Isolated severe
gusts are possible in and around where the Day 1 Marginal severe
Risk overlaps with the Dry Thunderstorm probabilities. See the
previous discussion for more information.
..Nauslar/Lyons.. 07/23/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1222 AM CDT Thu Jul 23 2026/
...Synopsis...
Upper-level troughing will continue across the eastern U.S. as
surface high pressure builds into the Ohio Valley. A long-lived
upper ridge across the western U.S. will finally begin to flatten
and break down owing to an approaching eastern Pacific upper trough.
Within the last 24 hours, mixed wet/dry thunderstorms have traversed
portions of central Oregon and the Cascades. Only localized areas
received appreciable precipitation, not fully mitigating fuel
concerns across the broader environment. Returning dry and windy
conditions east of the Cascades will further enhance the fuelscape,
encouraging lightning-induced ignitions to emerge and further
exacerbating numerous wildfires across the region.
...Pacific Northwest and Northern Rockies...
As upper-level flow transitions from broadly southerly to
southwesterly, monsoonal moisture will be shunted northeastward as a
dry airmass returns to the Inland Northwest. Daytime
destabilization, ample mid-level moisture, and fast storm motions
over the Columbia Basin into the Northern Rockies will promote
isolated wet/dry thunderstorms. In addition, preceding days of hot
and dry conditions has allowed fuels to approach critical
thresholds, making the environment increasingly receptive to new
ignitions. As upper level flow strengthens and impinges upon the
Northwest, tightening surface pressure gradients along the Cascades
will promote very gusty winds amid a dry boundary layer. Elevated
highlights have been maintained where RH values will decline to less
than 20% as winds increase to 15-20 mph (localized gusts up to 35
mph in terrain-favored areas). Greater concern for new ignitions and
impacts to ongoing fires exist where the Elevated and Isolated Dry
Thunderstorm highlights overlap.
...Southern Plains...
A mid-level shortwave trough will track across the High Plains this
afternoon as a surface low emerges over the Oklahoma/Texas
Panhandles. At peak heating, 15-20% RH will combine with
southwesterly winds of 10-15 mph atop a mixed fuelscape. Pockets of
cured grasses and ERCs approaching the 80-90th percentile will
promote locally elevated fire concerns.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0239 PM CDT Thu Jul 23 2026
Valid 241200Z - 251200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR NORTHEASTERN
CALIFORNIA...NORTHWESTERN NEVADA...AND SOUTH-CENTRAL/SOUTHEASTERN
OREGON...
The Elevated area was expanded into portions of central Montana as
gusty westerly winds are expected to overlap lowering RH for several
hours. Elevated conditions are likely to continue across portions of
the Critical area/vicinity overnight, with longer duration elevated
to locally critical conditions expected in northern Montana during
the afternoon and evening. Otherwise, the forecast remains on track,
and please see the previous discussion for more details.
..Nauslar.. 07/23/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1225 AM CDT Thu Jul 23 2026/
...Synopsis...
Upper-level ridging will begin to transition towards the central
U.S. as eastern Pacific troughing approaches the Pacific Northwest.
Meanwhile, troughing will persist across the eastern U.S. with
several embedded shortwaves providing unsettled conditions in the
Midwest and portions of the Southeast.
Enhanced southwesterly flow will overspread the Pacific Northwest,
Northern Rockies, and the Montana Plains on Day 2/Friday, bringing
hot, dry, and windy conditions to a mostly dry fuelscape. With
preceding days of mixed wet/dry thunderstorms and abundant lightning
being followed by such meteorological conditions, holdover ignitions
are likely to emerge. Daytime RH values of less than 20% are
expected to combine with southwest-westerly sustained winds of 15-20
mph, warranting Elevated highlights. While some pockets of heavier
rainfall from prior days thunderstorms may alleviate localized fuel
concerns, the expansive environment is approaching, or has already
reached, critical fuel thresholds. A Critical risk area was
introduced across northeastern California, northwestern Nevada, and
south-central/southeastern Oregon where 15-25 mph southwesterly
winds and less than 15% RH will overlap 80-90th percentile ERCs.
Critical winds/RH are likely to develop across portions of
north-central and northeast Montana as well, but these conditions
will likely act as more of a curing event.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
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