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  Saturday July 4, 2026

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SPC Severe Thunderstorm Watch 451

WW 451 SEVERE TSTM IA IL IN LM 032340Z - 040700Z
      
WW 0451 Image

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 451
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
640 PM CDT Fri Jul 3 2026

The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of 
  Eastern Iowa
  Northern Illinois
  Northwest Indiana
  Lake Michigan

* Effective this Friday night and Saturday morning from 640 PM
  until 200 AM CDT.

* Primary threats include...
  Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible
  Isolated large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible
  A tornado or two possible

SUMMARY...A cluster of thunderstorms should pose a threat for mainly
scattered severe/damaging winds as it tracks east-southeastward this
evening into early Saturday morning. Peak gusts may reach up to
60-70 mph. Isolated hail and perhaps a brief tornado or two may also
occur with any cells that can move along/near a boundary.

The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 55
statute miles north and south of a line from 40 miles west northwest
of Moline IL to Valparaiso IN. For a complete depiction of the watch
see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU1).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.

&&

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 446...WW 447...WW
448...WW 449...WW 450...

AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A
few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector
29030.

...Gleason

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SPC Severe Thunderstorm Watch 452 Status Reports

WW 0452 Status Updates
      
WW 0452 Status Image

STATUS REPORT ON WW 452

SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SSW HLC
TO 40 E HLC TO 40 S EAR.

..BROYLES..07/04/26

ATTN...WFO...TOP...DDC...GID...ICT...


STATUS REPORT FOR WS 452 

SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS 

KSC027-029-051-089-105-117-123-131-141-143-149-157-161-167-183-
195-201-040340-

KS 
.    KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

CLAY                 CLOUD               ELLIS               
JEWELL               LINCOLN             MARSHALL            
MITCHELL             NEMAHA              OSBORNE             
OTTAWA               POTTAWATOMIE        REPUBLIC            
RILEY                RUSSELL             SMITH               
TREGO                WASHINGTON          


THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY.  PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.

Read more

SPC Severe Thunderstorm Watch 451 Status Reports

WW 0451 Status Updates
      
WW 0451 Status Image

STATUS REPORT ON WW 451

SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NW BRL TO
35 W MMO TO 50 NE MMO TO 35 NW BEH.

..MOORE..07/04/26

ATTN...WFO...DVN...LOT...ILX...


STATUS REPORT FOR WS 451 

SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS 

ILC031-053-063-075-091-093-099-105-123-155-175-197-040440-

IL 
.    ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

COOK                 FORD                GRUNDY              
IROQUOIS             KANKAKEE            KENDALL             
LA SALLE             LIVINGSTON          MARSHALL            
PUTNAM               STARK               WILL                


INC007-073-089-111-127-040440-

IN 
.    INDIANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

BENTON               JASPER              LAKE                
NEWTON               PORTER              


LMZ741-742-743-744-745-779-040440-

CW 

.    ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE
Read more

SPC Severe Thunderstorm Watch 450 Status Reports

WW 0450 Status Updates
      
WW 0450 Status Image

STATUS REPORT ON WW 450

SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 ESE SNY
TO 30 SSW MHN TO 30 ENE CDR.

..BROYLES..07/04/26

ATTN...WFO...LBF...


STATUS REPORT FOR WS 450 

SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS 

NEC009-017-031-041-091-101-103-111-113-115-117-149-171-040340-

NE 
.    NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

BLAINE               BROWN               CHERRY              
CUSTER               HOOKER              KEITH               
KEYA PAHA            LINCOLN             LOGAN               
LOUP                 MCPHERSON           ROCK                
THOMAS               


THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY.  PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.

Read more

SPC Severe Thunderstorm Watch 449 Status Reports

WW 0449 Status Updates
      
WW 0449 Status Image

STATUS REPORT ON WW 449

SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 WNW BIE
TO 20 SSW LNK TO 25 NNE LNK TO 15 WNW OMA TO 40 SE DNS.

..BROYLES..07/04/26

ATTN...WFO...OAX...GID...


STATUS REPORT FOR WS 449 

SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS 

IAC071-129-137-145-155-040440-

IA 
.    IOWA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

FREMONT              MILLS               MONTGOMERY          
PAGE                 POTTAWATTAMIE       


NEC025-055-067-095-097-109-127-131-133-147-153-040440-

NE 
.    NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

CASS                 DOUGLAS             GAGE                
JEFFERSON            JOHNSON             LANCASTER           
NEMAHA               OTOE                PAWNEE              
RICHARDSON           SARPY               


THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY.  PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.

Read more

SPC Severe Thunderstorm Watch 448 Status Reports

WW 0448 Status Updates
      
WW 0448 Status Image

STATUS REPORT ON WW 448

SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 WNW DOV
TO 15 WNW PHL TO 10 SSW EWR TO 15 NW ISP.

..MOORE..07/04/26

ATTN...WFO...PHI...LWX...OKX...BGM...ALY...CTP...PBZ...


STATUS REPORT FOR WS 448 

SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS 

DEC003-040140-

DE 
.    DELAWARE COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

NEW CASTLE           


NJC005-007-015-021-025-029-033-040140-

NJ 
.    NEW JERSEY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

BURLINGTON           CAMDEN              GLOUCESTER          
MERCER               MONMOUTH            OCEAN               
SALEM                


NYC059-040140-

NY 
.    NEW YORK COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

NASSAU               

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SPC Severe Thunderstorm Watch 447 Status Reports

WW 0447 Status Updates
      
WW 0447 Status Image

STATUS REPORT ON WW 447

SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SW TOL TO
30 SE DTW TO 30 SE BAX.

..MOORE..07/03/26

ATTN...WFO...IWX...GRR...DTX...


STATUS REPORT FOR WS 447 

SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS 

MIC147-040040-

MI 
.    MICHIGAN COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

ST. CLAIR            


LCZ422-040040-

CW 

.    ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE

ST. CLAIR RIVER 

THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY.  PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.

Read more

SPC Severe Thunderstorm Watch 446 Status Reports

WW 0446 Status Updates
      
WW 0446 Status Image

STATUS REPORT ON WW 446

SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 NW CDR TO
35 SSW RAP TO 10 NNW PHP TO 10 SE PIR.

..BROYLES..07/04/26

ATTN...WFO...UNR...ABR...


STATUS REPORT FOR WS 446 

SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS 

SDC007-047-071-075-095-102-121-123-040240-

SD 
.    SOUTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

BENNETT              FALL RIVER          JACKSON             
JONES                MELLETTE            OGLALA LAKOTA       
TODD                 TRIPP               


THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY.  PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.

Read more

SPC Severe Thunderstorm Watch 445 Status Reports

WW 0445 Status Updates
      
WW 0445 Status Image

STATUS REPORT ON WW 445

SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 WSW MMO
TO 25 WSW BEH.

..LEITMAN..07/03/26

ATTN...WFO...LOT...MKX...


STATUS REPORT FOR WS 445 

SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS 

ILC053-063-075-091-093-099-105-197-032140-

IL 
.    ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

FORD                 GRUNDY              IROQUOIS            
KANKAKEE             KENDALL             LA SALLE            
LIVINGSTON           WILL                


INC007-073-089-111-127-032140-

IN 
.    INDIANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

BENTON               JASPER              LAKE                
NEWTON               PORTER              


LMZ645-743-744-745-032140-

CW 

.    ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE

Read more

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Sat Jul 4 04:30:12 UTC 2026.

SPC Jul 4, 2026 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
      
Day 1 Outlook Image
Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0750 PM CDT Fri Jul 03 2026

Valid 040100Z - 041200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF
SOUTHEASTERN NEBRASKA INTO WESTERN IOWA...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered damaging gusts will continue across portions of the Mid
Atlantic and the central/northern Plains. More isolated to scattered
severe storms will also continue across portions of the High Plains
to the northern Rockies.

...Discussion...
Several clusters of widely scattered thunderstorms in many different
regimes are ongoing across portions of the central and northern
Plains into the Midwest and across the Mid-Atlantic. The greatest
threat through the remainder of the evening will be for damaging
wind, with a few instances of large hail and perhaps a tornado from
the Plains to the Midwest.

Across the central/northern Plains, activity is mainly tied to lee
troughing and broad ascent from the mid-level shortwave trough. A
few embedded supercells will pose potential for large hail through
the evening but the main threat is shifting to become damaging wind,
with several clusters attempting to grow upscale. The more focused
corridor of severe wind threat through the evening will likely
extend from southeastern Nebraska into northern Kansas, where a more
robust line has developed amid a strongly unstable air mass. Deep
layer shear decreases with southward extent into Kansas, however,
storms may be driven by cold pool dynamics south and eastward
through the evening.

Across portions of southern South Dakota, western Nebraska, and
eastern Colorado, a few more discrete supercell clusters are
ongoing. This region will be where the greatest short term risk will
be for large to very large hail, particularly across western
Nebraska into southwestern South Dakota.

Across portions of the Midwest into the Great Lakes, a cluster of
storms is moving across northern Illinois towards the Chicago Metro.
This line is tracking along a MLCAPE gradient that extends across
northern Illinois into northern Indiana/southern Michigan. Storms
will likely advance eastward along this gradient through the
evening, with potential for damaging winds. 

Another robust line is moving eastward through New York City and
northern New Jersey. This has produced a swath of measured severe
wind and continues eastward towards the coast.

..Thornton.. 07/04/2026

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