RSS Mesoscale Discussions from Storm Prediction Center
No watches are valid as of Fri Apr 10 12:39:01 UTC 2026.
No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Fri Apr 10 12:39:02 UTC 2026.
SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0736 AM CDT Fri Apr 10 2026
Valid 101300Z - 111200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE SOUTH-CENTRAL PLAINS/OZARKS AND NORTHERN CALIFORNIA/GREAT
BASIN...
...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms with isolated large hail and severe gusts are possible
this afternoon and evening across parts of the south-central Plains
to the Ozarks. Strong to locally severe storms may also occur from
western/northern Nevada into southeast Oregon and southwest Idaho,
and also across parts of north-central California.
...South-central Plains/Ozarks...
Scattered rain and generally weak thunderstorms will continue to
accompany and reinforce a southward-shifting front, with the
boundary stalling today, before starting to shift back northward
late tonight. Weakening flow aloft will occur today in the presence
of a building upper ridge and corresponding height rises. As
outflows dissipate, ample heating/mixing is expected later today to
the south of the front, where MLCAPE values may exceed 1500 J/kg
across Oklahoma/Texas Panhandle and northeast New Mexico.
Even with modest overall forcing for ascent, scattered thunderstorms
are expected to develop by late afternoon in the vicinity of the
boundary across parts of far southern Kansas/northern Oklahoma into
the Ozarks, with additional development possible near the front, and
also within a post-frontal regime across the south-central High
Plains vicinity.
With rather modest large-scale ascent and weak deep-layer flow
across the region, storm organization and duration may generally
remain somewhat limited. However, more organized cells may briefly
develop on an isolated basis more immediately near the boundary,
where some enhancement to effective shear/SRH will be possible.
Isolated large hail appears to be the most likely hazard, although
localized strong/damaging wind gusts could also occur.
...Nevada/southeast OR/southwest ID and north-central CA...
A closed upper low off the coast of northern California will open
and become more progressive, reaching the Sierra and parts of the
Great Basin tonight. Related forcing for ascent and moisture will
influence scattered thunderstorm development this afternoon across
parts of central/northern California into the northern Great Basin
and interior Northwest. Cold temperatures aloft and rather strong
diurnal heating will result in steep low/mid-level lapse rates and
MUCAPE increasing to near/above 500 J/kg.
Mid-level flow and deep-layer shear will gradually increase over
time, with the most favorable overlap of vertical shear and
instability expected across western/northern Nevada into southeast
Oregon and southwest Idaho. Semi-organized cells/clusters, and
perhaps even a few supercells, may develop with an attendant threat
of hail and localized severe wind gusts.
A few locally severe storms may also develop across parts of the
Sacramento and northern San Joaquin Valleys in California this
afternoon. While deep-layer shear will be somewhat weaker as
compared to the northern Great Basin, cold temperatures aloft
(near/below -20C at 500 mb) may support marginally severe hail with
the strongest storms. The steep lapse rate environment and local
terrain influences could also support transient cell rotation and
possibly funnels, or even a brief tornado, although this potential
currently seems low/uncertain.
..Guyer/Broyles.. 04/10/2026
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Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0328 AM CDT Fri Apr 10 2026
Valid 131200Z - 181200Z
...DISCUSSION...
...Days 4-6/Mon-Wed -- Central/Southern Plains to the Midwest...
There is quite a bit of uncertainty regarding severe
potential/evolution during the Monday-Wednesday period. An upper
trough will slowly pivot across the West on Monday, and emerge over
the central/southern Rockies by early Wednesday before finally
ejecting across the Plains and toward the Mid/Upper MS Valley on
Wednesday. During this time, broad southwesterly deep-layer flow
will overspread the Plains into the Mid/Upper MS Valley.
On Monday, a surface low will develop over the northern/central
Plains, with a dryline extending southward across KS/OK/TX and a
warm front extending across southern MN/WI. Several lead shortwave
impulses will move across the Plains, though height tendencies will
remain mostly neutral. Nevertheless, cooling aloft will support
steep midlevel lapse rates and increasing boundary layer moisture
(surface dewpoints in the low/mid 60s F) will support moderate to
strong destabilization. During the evening, a southwesterly
low-level jet will increase across the Plains, overspreading the
surface dryline. Vertically veering wind profiles and 30-40 kt
effective shear magnitudes would support supercells capable of all
hazards, though storm coverage remains uncertain.
By Tuesday, the GFS becomes more progressive with the western
trough, ejecting it into the Plains by early Wednesday, whereas the
ECMWF hangs the trough back west and is slower. Nevertheless, a
similar airmass will be in place across the warm sector east of a
dryline across the Plains and to the south of a warm front draped
across the Great Lakes. Isolated convection may develop along the
dryline across the Plains, posing a supercell/all-hazards risk.
Higher storm coverage appears more likely across portions of the
Mid/Upper MS Valley/Great Lakes vicinity closer to a surface low.
On Wednesday, the upper trough should progress from the Plains to
the Great Lakes while weakening some. A surface cold front will
develop southeast across portions of the central U.S. and some
severe risk should persist along/ahead of this boundary. How
convection evolves on Tuesday into Wednesday will impact where the
greatest severe risk will develop, but at least some risk should
exist from portions of the southern Plains to the Mid-MS Valley.
...Days 7-8/Thu-Fri...
Predictability is low heading into the end of the forecast period on
Thursday and Friday as large spread exists among medium range
guidance. However, western U.S. upper troughing may persist,
suggesting some severe thunderstorm potential could persist for
parts of the Plains late in the work week.
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