RSS Mesoscale Discussions from Storm Prediction Center
No watches are valid as of Sun Jan 11 20:16:02 UTC 2026.
No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Sun Jan 11 20:16:02 UTC 2026.
SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0958 AM CST Sun Jan 11 2026
Valid 111630Z - 121200Z
...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are not forecast through tonight across the contiguous
United States.
...Synopsis...
Water-vapor imagery shows a large-scale trough over the East and
split flow over the West featuring a low over the Gulf of California
and zonal flow over the northwest CONUS. Cool/stable conditions
will influence weather conditions east of the Rockies, and as a
result, prove hostile to thunderstorm development.
..Smith/Wendt.. 01/11/2026
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SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0148 PM CST Sun Jan 11 2026
Valid 112000Z - 121200Z
...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are not forecast through tonight across the contiguous
United States.
...20Z Update...
No changes.
..Squitieri.. 01/11/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0958 AM CST Sun Jan 11 2026/
...Synopsis...
Water-vapor imagery shows a large-scale trough over the East and
split flow over the West featuring a low over the Gulf of California
and zonal flow over the northwest CONUS. Cool/stable conditions
will influence weather conditions east of the Rockies, and as a
result, prove hostile to thunderstorm development.
Read more
SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1048 AM CST Sun Jan 11 2026
Valid 121200Z - 131200Z
...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorm potential appears low on Monday.
...Synopsis...
A mid/upper shortwave trough and attendant strong jet will move
southeastward from the Canadian Prairies towards the northern Plains
and Upper Midwest through the period. This system will be
accompanied by cooling aloft and steepening midlevel lapse rates,
but available moisture appears insufficient for appreciable
buoyancy, resulting in limited thunderstorm potential.
An upper low is forecast to move across northern Mexico and approach
southwest TX. Limited moisture is expected to result in negligible
to only very weak elevated buoyancy, and thunderstorm potential
appears low at this time.
Some low-level moistening and weak destabilization will be possible
across far south FL and the Keys, but poor lapse rates and weak
forcing are expected to hamper development of deep convection.
..Dean.. 01/11/2026
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SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1251 PM CST Sun Jan 11 2026
Valid 131200Z - 141200Z
...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorm potential appears low on Tuesday.
...Synopsis...
Generally dry and stable conditions are expected to limit
thunderstorm potential across the CONUS on Tuesday. A large-scale
upper trough is forecast to amplify across the central/eastern
CONUS. An embedded shortwave trough and attendant surface low are
forecast to move across the Great Lakes vicinity, while a weak upper
low initially near southwest TX is expected to evolve into a
low-amplitude shortwave trough and move eastward across the Gulf
Coast region.
A persistent surface ridge over the Gulf will inhibit moisture
return and destabilization within the warm sector of the surface low
moving across the Great Lakes. Modest low-level moisture and weak
buoyancy may reside across parts of south FL and the Keys for much
of the period. However, weak forcing and poor lapse rates will tend
to inhibit deep convection, with any appreciable thunderstorm
potential currently expected to remain offshore.
..Dean.. 01/11/2026
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SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1047 AM CST Sun Jan 11 2026
Valid 111700Z - 121200Z
No changes were necessary to the current Elevated highlights across
portions of the Carolinas and southeastern GA. A cooler but
considerably drier air mass continues to filter into the
southeastern CONUS behind a cold front as an accompanying strong
upper trough nears the East Coast. Downslope-enhanced northwest
winds of 10-20 mph with higher gusts in the Piedmont and Coastal
Plains regions along with relative humidity falling into the 20-30%
range, will overlap with dry fuels (where no frontal precipitation
occurred over the last 24 hours) to promote elevated fire weather
conditions across southeastern Georgia and the Coastal Plains of the
Carolinas through this afternoon.
..Williams.. 01/11/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1251 AM CST Sun Jan 11 2026/
...Synopsis...
A broad mid-level trough over the eastern Great Lakes will rapidly
intensify as it moves southeastward and offshore over the eastern US
today and tonight. A 100+ kt mid-level jet south of the trough will
eject over the Appalachians and portions of the Southeast. At the
surface, a cold front will quickly move offshore while strong high
pressure builds over the interior CONUS. This will support gusty
downslope winds over parts of the Southeast.
...Southeast...
As the upper trough moves offshore, strong west/northwest downslope
winds will develop behind the surface cold front in the lee of the
Appalachians. Sustained at 10-15 mph with gusts of 20 mph, the
downslope trajectories and rapid drying should allow for widespread
RH below 30% across the Piedmont and coastal plains. Given the
favorable overlap of dry conditions, gusty winds and no rainfall, a
few hours of elevated fire weather conditions are expected across
southeastern Georgia and the Coastal Plains of the Carolinas.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
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SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook CORR 1
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0204 PM CST Sun Jan 11 2026
Valid 121200Z - 131200Z
CORRECTED FOR GRAPHIC ERROR
...Northern High Plains...
Increasing northwest flow aloft over the Northern Rockies along with
increasing surface pressure gradient across the High Plains will
continue to support a downslope regime across the central and
northern High Plains Monday. RH recoveries will be limited tonight
across the High Plains of MT owing to cloud cover and lack of
development of a deeper near-surface temperature inversion. Lower
elevations also remains snow free with a marked lack of recent
precipitation and extended period of above normal temperatures.
West-northwest winds of 20-30 mph with higher gusts will combine
with relative humidity in the 20-30% range and dry fine fuels to
facilitate an increased fire danger across lower elevations.
Temperatures will be well above normal approaching 60F in some areas
Monday afternoon, despite expected cloud cover. Thus, added Elevated
highlights to portions of central MT for the expected increased fire
weather threat.
..Williams.. 01/11/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1251 AM CST Sun Jan 11 2026/
...Synopsis...
Fire-weather concerns over the US are negligible Monday. Broad
troughing is forecast to persist over the eastern US with high
pressure building to the West. This will favor continued
Northwesterly flow over much of the CONUS. Cooler surface
temperatures and recent rainfall should largely preclude
fire-weather concerns.
The only exception will be stronger downslope winds beneath an
advancing shortwave trough embedded within the northwesterly flow
aloft over the central High Plains D2/Monday. The dry downsloping
will favor warmer and drier surface conditions with no recent
precipitation in these areas. Some locally dry/breezy conditions are
possible over northern CO, southern WY and western NE atop very dry,
albeit seasonally limited fuels. However, cooling surface temps and
only transient overlap of stronger winds should preclude more
sustained elevated fire-weather concerns.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
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