RSS Mesoscale Discussions from Storm Prediction Center
WW 483 SEVERE TSTM OK 112015Z - 120300Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 483
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
315 PM CDT Sat Jul 11 2026
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of
Central into Northeast Oklahoma
* Effective this Saturday afternoon and evening from 315 PM until
1000 PM CDT.
* Primary threats include...
Scattered damaging winds and isolated significant gusts to 75
mph possible
Isolated large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible
SUMMARY...Scattered thunderstorms are forecast to develop this
afternoon into the early evening. Scattered severe gusts 60 to 75
mph are possible with the stronger microbursts and outflow winds.
Isolated large hail up to 1.5 inches in diameter is also possible
through the early evening.
The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 60
statute miles north and south of a line from 60 miles west northwest
of Chickasha OK to 40 miles east northeast of Tulsa OK. For a
complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline
update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU3).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.
&&
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 481...WW 482...
AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 65 knots. A
few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 450. Mean storm motion vector
32010.
...Smith
Read more
WW 482 SEVERE TSTM AR MO MS TN 111855Z - 120100Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 482
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
155 PM CDT Sat Jul 11 2026
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of
Northern and Central Arkansas
Missouri Bootheel
Northern Mississippi
Western Tennessee
* Effective this Saturday afternoon and evening from 155 PM until
800 PM CDT.
* Primary threats include...
Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely
Isolated large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible
SUMMARY...An elongated band of intensifying thunderstorms is
forecast to move east-southeast this afternoon into the early
evening across the Watch. The stronger thunderstorms will pose a
risk for severe gusts (60 to 70 mph). A few stronger storms over
Arkansas may also yield a risk for large hail.
The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 60
statute miles north and south of a line from 50 miles west northwest
of Russellville AR to 50 miles east southeast of Jackson TN. For a
complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline
update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU2).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.
&&
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 481...
AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A
few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector
29025.
...Smith
Read more
WW 481 SEVERE TSTM ? NC SC CW 111820Z - 120100Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 481
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
220 PM EDT Sat Jul 11 2026
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of
Southern North Carolina
Central and Eastern South Carolina
Coastal Waters
* Effective this Saturday afternoon and evening from 220 PM until
900 PM EDT.
* Primary threats include...
Scattered damaging wind gusts to 65 mph possible
SUMMARY...Small thunderstorm clusters are forecast to continue to
develop and intensify this afternoon. Strong to severe gusts
capable of wind damage are possible with the more intense
water-loaded downdrafts. This activity will likely push east of the
coast by mid evening.
The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 60
statute miles north and south of a line from 5 miles south of
Augusta GA to 25 miles south southeast of Wilmington NC. For a
complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline
update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU1).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.
&&
AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
0.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 55 knots. A
few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 450. Mean storm motion vector
28020.
...Smith
Read more
WW 0483 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0483 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET
Read more
WW 0482 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 482
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..JEWELL..07/11/26
ATTN...WFO...LZK...MEG...
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 482
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ARC005-009-023-029-031-035-037-045-055-063-065-067-071-075-077-
083-085-089-093-095-101-105-111-115-117-119-123-127-129-135-137-
141-145-147-149-112140-
AR
. ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BAXTER BOONE CLEBURNE
CONWAY CRAIGHEAD CRITTENDEN
CROSS FAULKNER GREENE
INDEPENDENCE IZARD JACKSON
JOHNSON LAWRENCE LEE
LOGAN LONOKE MARION
MISSISSIPPI MONROE NEWTON
PERRY POINSETT POPE
PRAIRIE PULASKI ST. FRANCIS
SCOTT SEARCY SHARP
STONE VAN BUREN WHITE
WOODRUFF YELL
MSC003-009-033-093-117-137-139-141-143-112140-
MS
. MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
Read more
WW 0481 Status Updates
-NCZ000-SCZ000-CWZ000-112200-
STATUS REPORT ON WW 481
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 5 NE AGS TO
25 E OGB TO 15 SE ILM.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1590
..SMITH..07/11/26
ATTN...WFO...ILM...CAE...CHS...
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 481
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
NCC019-129-112200-
NC
. NORTH CAROLINA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BRUNSWICK NEW HANOVER
SCC009-011-015-019-027-029-035-043-075-089-112200-
SC
. SOUTH CAROLINA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BAMBERG BARNWELL BERKELEY
CHARLESTON CLARENDON COLLETON
DORCHESTER GEORGETOWN ORANGEBURG
WILLIAMSBURG
AMZ250-252-254-256-340-360-112200-
CW
Read more
MD 1591 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 482... FOR NORTHERN ARKANSAS INTO SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE AND NORTHERN ALABAMA
Mesoscale Discussion 1591
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0338 PM CDT Sat Jul 11 2026
Areas affected...northern Arkansas into southern Middle Tennessee
and northern Alabama
Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 482...
Valid 112038Z - 112245Z
The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 482
continues.
SUMMARY...Strong to severe gusts remain possible through this
evening across the watch area, and may eventually occur east of the
watch into northern Alabama and southern Middle Tennessee.
DISCUSSION...Storms have developed along the front this afternoon,
extending across northern AR and into western TN. Strong wind gusts
have been reported, with a peak wind of 47 kt measured at KMKL at
2009Z. The air mass remains strongly unstable across the entire
watch area, and westerly winds have also warmed temperatures above
90 F into Middle TN and northern AL. As such, corridors of damaging
gusts appear likely as stronger sections of the line bow toward the
southeast.
Additional activity has developed near the eastern edge of the watch
into southern parts of Middle TN where the air mass has recovered.
Depending on storm trends, a new watch may be considered
east/downstream of WW482 later today.
..Jewell.. 07/11/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...OHX...BMX...HUN...MEG...LZK...
LAT...LON 35849330 35829029 35628761 35208618 34748586 34298611
34028639 33898692 34258977 34969297 35239329 35629337
35849330
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN
Read more
MD 1590 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 481... FOR PORTIONS OF COASTAL SOUTH CAROLINA INTO CAPE FEAR...NORTH CAROLINA
Mesoscale Discussion 1590
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0314 PM CDT Sat Jul 11 2026
Areas affected...portions of coastal South Carolina into Cape
Fear...North Carolina
Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 481...
Valid 112014Z - 112145Z
The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 481
continues.
SUMMARY...Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms continue to pose
a risk for damaging wind gusts across portions of coastal South
Carolina and the Cape Fear vicinity in North Carolina.
DISCUSSION...Loosely organized thunderstorms have progressed
east-southeastward across much of central South Carolina over the
past several hours, producing scattered reports of damaging wind
gusts and a few measured gusts around 40 kts. The environment
downstream of these storms remains favorable for damaging wind
gusts, with temperatures noted in the mid-90s F along with MLCAPE of
1500 J/kg and steep low-level lapse rates of 7.5-8.0+ C/km. Current
track extrapolation indicates these storms should progress offshore
within the next 1-2 hours, bringing an end to the severe threat
across the coastal Carolinas.
..Chalmers.. 07/11/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...ILM...CHS...CAE...
LAT...LON 32737942 32687971 32738017 32908078 33078113 33228127
33388123 33468111 33628079 33678073 33907982 34057913
34147871 34177821 34137787 34067773 33897781 33727793
33707821 33617846 33477873 33367890 33207900 33007914
32737942
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
Read more
MD 1588 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR MUCH OF NORTHERN INTO CENTRAL OKLAHOMA
Mesoscale Discussion 1588
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0156 PM CDT Sat Jul 11 2026
Areas affected...much of northern into central Oklahoma
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible
Valid 111856Z - 112130Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent
SUMMARY...Clusters of storms are expected to develop after 21Z, with
locally damaging wind gusts and marginal hail from northern into
parts of central Oklahoma.
DISCUSSION...An MCV is moving across northwest OK, with a
quasi-stationary boundary extending eastward near the OK/KS border
and into northwest AR. Strong heating persists ahead of this
feature, with increasing CU fields both within the low-level lapse
rate plume and along the boundary.
Continued heating and surface convergence will support scattered
storms later this afternoon, within a moist and unstable air mass.
MLCAPE is approaching 2000 J/kg, and dewpoints are holding in the
mid 60s F within the zone of stronger mixing/heating upstream over
west-central OK.
While shear is weak, winds do veer with height, which should support
slow-moving storms with a strong southward component. Substantial
PWAT along with favorable timing with max heating later today should
support locally damaging winds with a few gusts over 70 mph. Brief
hail may occur with the stronger cores initially.
..Jewell/Smith.. 07/11/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...TSA...ICT...OUN...
LAT...LON 35899531 35899610 35619662 35059824 35129860 35259888
35449893 35949845 36299823 36829817 36979805 37129759
36999662 36959542 36849486 36379459 36069472 35899531
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN
Read more
SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1130 AM CDT Sat Jul 11 2026
Valid 111630Z - 121200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM OKLAHOMA INTO
THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY/TENNESSEE VALLEY AND SOUTHEAST...AND
ACROSS SOUTHERN ARIZONA...
...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms capable of producing scattered severe/damaging winds
will be possible this afternoon and evening from parts of the
southern Plains eastward into the lower Mississippi Valley and
Southeast. Scattered severe wind gusts are possible over southern
Arizona late this afternoon through the evening.
...Southern Plains/Ozarks into the Tennessee Valley/Southeast and
Mid-Atlantic...
Weak mid-level troughing with multiple embedded and convectively
enhanced vorticity maxima (i.e., several MCVs evident in radar
mosaic/satellite imagery) will advance slowly eastward across the
mid MS Valley into the lower OH Valley/Midwest and TN Valley and
southern Appalachians. A developing thunderstorm cluster over the
Upstate of SC will likely move east towards the Carolina coast later
today. Ahead of this cluster, strong heating with temperatures
warming into the 90s with lower to mid 70s F dewpoints will result
in a moderately unstable airmass. Westerly low-level flow will
imply the wind risk will likely overspread the coast.
Isolated damaging winds may also occur farther north along/near a
weak synoptic front, but less instability is forecast with northward
extent into the OH Valley and Mid-Atlantic.
Farther west, several clusters may evolve across the Mid South with
damaging gusts the primary severe hazard. Visible-satellite imagery
shows an MCV over northwest OK moving east. The airmass south of a
stalled frontal zone will undergo strong heating via clear skies
through mid afternoon. Short-term model guidance (HREF, HRRR-RRFS
time-lagged ensemble) show scattered storms developing across
north-central OK by 21-23 UTC. A well-mixed boundary layer will
support strong evaporatively cooled downdrafts capable of severe
gusts with the more intense single and multicells. Have expanded
the Slight Risk to account for this increased confidence in a severe
threat across central OK.
...Southern Arizona...
With a mid-level anticyclone centered over the Four Corners, a weak
easterly mid-level flow regime is present today across the Sonoran
Desert. Very strong heating will result in a deeply mixed boundary
layer and this was depicted on the 12 UTC Phoenix raob, with an
accompanying 11.6 g/kg lowest 100-mb mean mixing ratio. Forecast
soundings show 20-kt easterly flow in the mid levels atop weak
westerly surface flow. Very steep low- to mid-level lapse rates and
inverted-V thermodynamic profiles will strongly favor evaporatively
cooled downdrafts with the more intense cores. Severe gusts 60-80
mph appear likely with the stronger microbursts. This activity will
likely transition from a few cells into an outflow-dominant cluster
during the evening and coincide with a greater prevalence of severe
gusts. Isolated hail may also occur with the stronger cores.
..Smith/Chalmers.. 07/11/2026
Read more
SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0255 PM CDT Sat Jul 11 2026
Valid 112000Z - 121200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL OKLAHOMA TO THE CAROLINA SHORELINE...AND SOUTHERN ARIZONA...
...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms capable of producing scattered severe/damaging winds
will remain possible this afternoon and evening from parts of the
southern Plains eastward into the lower Mississippi Valley and
Southeast. Scattered severe wind gusts are still possible over
southern Arizona late this afternoon through the evening.
...20Z Update...
The previous forecast (see below) remains largely on track. The only
appreciable change made to the 20Z Day 1 Outlook was to trim severe
probabilities from the TX Panhandle. Here, subsidence and stability
persist, with MLCINH of at least -100 J/kg in place amid minimal
low-level convergence or upper support to encourage diurnal
thunderstorm development. However, a few nocturnal storms may form
due to impinging convective outflow from OK. Elsewhere across the
CONUS, only minor changes were made to the general thunder and
severe probabilities to reflect the latest observations and guidance
consensus.
..Squitieri.. 07/11/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1130 AM CDT Sat Jul 11 2026/
...Southern Plains/Ozarks into the Tennessee Valley/Southeast and
Mid-Atlantic...
Weak mid-level troughing with multiple embedded and convectively
enhanced vorticity maxima (i.e., several MCVs evident in radar
mosaic/satellite imagery) will advance slowly eastward across the
mid MS Valley into the lower OH Valley/Midwest and TN Valley and
southern Appalachians. A developing thunderstorm cluster over the
Upstate of SC will likely move east towards the Carolina coast later
today. Ahead of this cluster, strong heating with temperatures
warming into the 90s with lower to mid 70s F dewpoints will result
in a moderately unstable airmass. Westerly low-level flow will
imply the wind risk will likely overspread the coast.
Isolated damaging winds may also occur farther north along/near a
weak synoptic front, but less instability is forecast with northward
extent into the OH Valley and Mid-Atlantic.
Farther west, several clusters may evolve across the Mid South with
damaging gusts the primary severe hazard. Visible-satellite imagery
shows an MCV over northwest OK moving east. The airmass south of a
stalled frontal zone will undergo strong heating via clear skies
through mid afternoon. Short-term model guidance (HREF, HRRR-RRFS
time-lagged ensemble) show scattered storms developing across
north-central OK by 21-23 UTC. A well-mixed boundary layer will
support strong evaporatively cooled downdrafts capable of severe
gusts with the more intense single and multicells. Have expanded
the Slight Risk to account for this increased confidence in a severe
threat across central OK.
...Southern Arizona...
With a mid-level anticyclone centered over the Four Corners, a weak
easterly mid-level flow regime is present today across the Sonoran
Desert. Very strong heating will result in a deeply mixed boundary
layer and this was depicted on the 12 UTC Phoenix raob, with an
accompanying 11.6 g/kg lowest 100-mb mean mixing ratio. Forecast
soundings show 20-kt easterly flow in the mid levels atop weak
westerly surface flow. Very steep low- to mid-level lapse rates and
inverted-V thermodynamic profiles will strongly favor evaporatively
cooled downdrafts with the more intense cores. Severe gusts 60-80
mph appear likely with the stronger microbursts. This activity will
likely transition from a few cells into an outflow-dominant cluster
during the evening and coincide with a greater prevalence of severe
gusts. Isolated hail may also occur with the stronger cores.
Read more
SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook CORR 1
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1235 PM CDT Sat Jul 11 2026
Valid 121200Z - 131200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PARTS OF EASTERN
GEORGIA INTO THE CAROLINAS...PARTS OF CENTRAL ARIZONA...
CORRECTED FOR WORD USAGE
...SUMMARY...
Scattered strong-to-severe thunderstorms capable of producing wind
damage will be possible across much of the Southeast on Sunday, with
the greatest potential across South Carolina. Additional
strong-to-severe thunderstorms will be possible across portions of
Arizona late Sunday afternoon into Sunday night.
...Portions of Carolinas into eastern Georgia...
An upper-level trough will continue to slide eastward north of these
regions. A belt of stronger mid-level flow will be present across
portions of the Carolinas, though winds will weaken with
southwestward extent. A modest surface low is expected to develop
along a stationary surface boundary. Scattered convection is
possible during the afternoon within the very moist airmass south of
the boundary. The most organized storms may exist along the boundary
within North Carolina where shear will be stronger. However, surface
heating may be more muted in this area. Stronger heating is more
probable farther southwest, though shear will be weaker. Where the
most favorable parameters overlap, scattered storms along with a few
clusters will be capable of wind damage.
...Arizona...
Model guidance continues to suggest that around 30 kt of mid-level
easterly winds will persist into Sunday across the Mogollon Rim.
Strong heating of the lower deserts along with greater moisture
moving farther northwest will support widely scattered to scattered
convection. Severe wind gusts will be possible with this activity
during the late afternoon and early evening.
...Upper Great Lakes...
Mid to upper 60s F dewpoints and steep mid-level lapse rates will
support 2500-3000 J/kg MLCAPE by the afternoon. A passing shortwave
trough to the northeast will promote moderate effective shear of
35-45 kt. With the upper ridge building in from the west, mid-level
heights will be steadily rising through the period. This leads to
uncertainty as to how many storms can form. The lake breeze
boundaries present would likely be the focus for development. The
environment would support large hail, damaging winds, and perhaps a
tornado with a sustained supercell. Storm coverage precludes any
upgrade in risk category, though storms could be intense if they
form.
...Southern Plains into Southeast...
Marginally severe storms are possible along and south of a stalled
surface boundary. Afternoon buoyancy will be moderate to strong, but
mid-level lapse rates and shear will generally be weak. Any greater
threat for damaging winds will be tied to where organized clusters
can form.
..Wendt.. 07/11/2026
Read more
SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0232 PM CDT Sat Jul 11 2026
Valid 131200Z - 141200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PORTIONS OF
SOUTH CAROLINA INTO CENTRAL GEORGIA AND FAR NORTH FLORIDA...
...SUMMARY...
A few strong-to-severe storms will be possible from South Carolina
into central Georgia and far North Florida on Monday.
...Southeast...
A weak, cut-off upper low will likely be present in the vicinity of
the Tennessee Valley/southern Appalachians. This may help to
organize storms along a stalled surface boundary within GA/SC. A
moist airmass will promote a few stronger storms capable of wind
damage. The overall threat does appear marginal as lapse rates will
be less steep than previous days.
...Arizona...
With at least 50s F dewpoints remaining within parts of Arizona,
thunderstorm activity can again be expected during the afternoon.
With mid-level flow being slightly more out of the southwest and
weakening with time, it is not certain how strong storms will become
and how many will move into the lower deserts. Even so, strong gusts
will be possible given the inverted-v thermodynamic profiles.
...Southwest Montana...
Models show a convective signal during the late afternoon within the
higher terrain of southwest Montana. Due to cloud cover, buoyancy
will not likely be very strong. Stronger flow aloft would allow for
isolated, organized storms should heating be greater than forecast.
..Wendt.. 07/11/2026
Read more
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0217 PM CDT Sat Jul 11 2026
Valid 121200Z - 131200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR EAST-CENTRAL IDAHO INTO SOUTHERN
MONTANA AND NORTHERN WYOMING...
A Critical area was added for portions of east-central Idaho into
southern Montana and northern Wyoming. HREF/REFS probabilities of
critical winds/RH were mostly greater than 50% with swaths of areas
above 90%. At noted in the previous outlook, some green vegetation
remains. However, with forecast ERCs near or above the 90th
percentile, BIs near to above the 97th percentile, including
all-time daily maximums, and high likelihood of critical winds/RH
overlapping well above normal temperatures, a Critical area was
introduced. Locally critical conditions remain likely across
portions of eastern Montana and Wyoming. Additionally, locally
elevated conditions are possible in portions of northern Minnesota
as west-southwest winds of 10-15 mph overlap with minimum RH of
30-40%.
The Elevated area across northeast California and northwest Nevada
was modified slightly based on the latest high-resolution forecast
guidance. Mid/high-level clouds and the potential for high-based
showers may limit reductions in RH and thus the development of
elevated conditions across these areas, including into southern
Oregon.
Isolated to scattered high-based showers are likely across
California, potentially starting late Day 1/tonight. Occasional
lightning is possible with these showers, but very limited buoyancy
and instability puts the probability at less than 10%. Isolated
mixed wet/dry thunderstorms are possible over portions of the
Peninsular Ranges and southern Sierra and possibly extending across
the Mojave and Sonoran Deserts in southern California. However,
given the uncertainty of thunderstorm development and rainfall, an
IsoDryT area was not introduced.
..Nauslar.. 07/11/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0205 AM CDT Sat Jul 11 2026/
...Synopsis...
An upper-level trough and associated jet streak is forecast to
progress east-northeastward from British Columbia into the interior
Canadian provinces on Sunday as an upper-level ridge moves from the
Great Basin into the High Plains. Residual flow across the Pacific
Northwest from the ejecting trough and a deepening surface low
across eastern Montana will be responsible for at least Elevated
fire-weather concerns across the Intermountain West to the northern
High Plains.
...Eastern Idaho into southern Montana, Eastern Wyoming, and far
western portions of the Dakotas...
A deepening surface cyclone will be responsible for bringing gusty
conditions to portions of the northern High Plains into Idaho, where
winds are forecast to be around 20 MPH, potentially gusting to 25-30
MPH. Widespread relative humidity at or even below 10% with these
forecast wind gusts will support Elevated to potentially Critical
fire-weather conditions on Sunday. However, there is currently some
uncertainty in the receptiveness of fuels across the region. ERCs
fuels guidance exceeds the 90th-95th annual percentiles, but other
sources suggest there may be more green vegetation that is not
accounted for in ERCs. Given the uncertainty in the quality of
fuels, only Elevated highlights have been maintained. However,
further upgrade to Critical in the Day 2 update is possible as
forecast guidance and fuel readiness become clearer.
...Northeastern California/northwestern Nevada into southern
Oregon...
Dry and breezy conditions associated with the ejecting mid-level jet
will linger across portions of the northern Sierra Nevadas into the
Cascades on Sunday. Winds of 10-15 MPH and relative humidity of
10-15%, combined with modestly receptive fuels (ERCs at the 80th
annual percentile) will support Elevated fire-weather conditions.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
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