RSS Mesoscale Discussions from Storm Prediction Center
No watches are valid as of Fri Dec 19 10:34:02 UTC 2025.
No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Fri Dec 19 10:34:02 UTC 2025.
SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1250 AM CST Fri Dec 19 2025
Valid 201200Z - 211200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated thunderstorms will be possible across coastal sections of
Washington and northwest Oregon Saturday night.
...Synopsis...
Broadly cyclonic mid-level flow associated with a shortwave trough
over Ontario/Quebec Provinces will shift eastward across the Great
Lakes and Northeast on Saturday as an upstream trough approaches the
Pacific Northwest Saturday night. Slowly rising heights will extend
across the southern U.S. through Saturday night in association with
an upper-level high centered over northern Mexico.
As modest height falls develop across the Pacific Northwest Late
Saturday, very weak buoyancy (on the order of 100 J/kg) may develop
along the immediate coastal areas. Isolated convective elements may
deepen sufficiently for charge separation/lightning production.
Modest low-level moisture should begin returning to the upper
Texas/LA coast Saturday on strengthening southerly flow, with 50s to
near 60 deg F surface dewpoints as far north as the Arklatex region.
The presence of a capping inversion and lack of notable ascent
suggests negligible chances for thunderstorms through Saturday
night.
..Bunting.. 12/19/2025
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SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0228 AM CST Fri Dec 19 2025
Valid 211200Z - 221200Z
...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Organized areas of thunderstorms are not expected on Sunday.
...Synopsis...
An upper-level trough over the Northeast U.S./Quebec Province will
move east on Sunday, as an upstream upper trough approaches the
Pacific Northwest coast. A surface cold front will move across the
eastern/southeast U.S. as an expansive high pressure system becomes
established behind the front.
Generally weak buoyancy may develop near the TX and LA coastal areas
where heating of 60s surface dew points takes place, however little
in the way of large-scale ascent is expected in this region. Thus,
while an isolated thunderstorm will be possible across the lower MS
Valley in the vicinity of the front, the overall potential for
thunderstorms appears too limited for the introduction of a 10
percent area with this outlook.
..Bunting.. 12/19/2025
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Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0400 AM CST Fri Dec 19 2025
Valid 221200Z - 271200Z
...DISCUSSION...
The large-scale mid-level flow pattern during the upcoming week will
feature ridging/anomalously high 500-mb heights over much of the
central U.S., and southwesterly flow with embedded disturbances
across the western states. Although low-level moisture will expand
north/northeast from the southern Plains and Southeast into the
Midwest/OH Valley region during the week, instability will remain
generally limited due to warm mid-level temperatures. Overall, the
potential for organized severe storms is expected to remain low each
day.
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SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0121 AM CST Fri Dec 19 2025
Valid 191200Z - 201200Z
...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE COLORADO
FOOTHILLS TO EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN WYOMING...
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL COLORADO TO
THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE...
...Synopsis...
A pronounced mid-level trough will eject into the Atlantic while a
low-amplitude upper trough impinges on the central/northern Rockies
into the northern Plains today. 50-70 kt 700-500 mb
west-northwesterly flow will accompany the central CONUS upper
trough, and overspread a deep and dry boundary layer through the
day. The combination of dry downslope flow and surface lee troughing
will support widespread 15+ mph sustained westerly surface winds
amid 15-25 percent RH across much of the central and southern High
Plains into the southern Plains for much of the afternoon,
warranting Elevated highlights.
Critical fire weather highlights are in place across portions of
central CO into southeastern WY and the NE Panhandle. Here the
strongest mid-level flow will overspread a boundary layer extending
to over 500 mb, which should support efficient downward momentum
transport to the surface. Sustained surface winds should exceed 20
mph (perhaps 30 mph in some spots) amid 15-20 percent RH. Of
particular concern is the immediate foothills across north-central
CO toward the Cheyenne WY area, where channeled flow within complex
terrain may support 50 mph sustained winds in localized spots, with
gusts up to 90 mph possible. Given dry fuels and 10-20 percent RH
along the foothills, a volatile environment may develop and support
rapid wildfire spread/extreme fire behavior for any potential
ignitions in the area, warranting Extremely Critical highlights.
..Squitieri.. 12/19/2025
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
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SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0147 AM CST Fri Dec 19 2025
Valid 201200Z - 211200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PARTS OF FAR EASTERN NEW MEXICO
INTO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE...
...Synopsis...
A mid-level trough will rapidly translate across the northern and
eastern CONUS tomorrow (Saturday), resulting in surface high
pressure overspreading much of the eastern CONUS as a surface low
drifts south across Texas during the day. Ahead of a surface frontal
boundary, dry downslope westerly flow will promote 15-20 mph
sustained westerly surface winds amid 15-20 percent RH for at least
a few hours Saturday afternoon across parts of eastern New Mexico
into western Texas, warranting Elevated highlights. Critical
highlights have also been introduced where guidance consensus
depicts 20+ mph sustained westerly winds overlapping 15 percent RH
amid dry fuels along the New Mexico/Texas border.
..Squitieri.. 12/19/2025
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
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