RSS Mesoscale Discussions from Storm Prediction Center
No watches are valid as of Mon Dec 8 00:31:02 UTC 2025.
No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Mon Dec 8 00:31:02 UTC 2025.
SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0136 PM CST Sun Dec 07 2025
Valid 072000Z - 081200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE CENTRAL
PORTION OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated damaging winds and a brief tornado are possible across
parts of the Florida Peninsula beginning late this afternoon through
the evening.
...20Z Update...
No changes to the outlook are required. See the previous discussion
for additional information.
..Wendt.. 12/07/2025
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1019 AM CST Sun Dec 07 2025/
...Florida Peninsula...
Late morning radar/satellite composite shows a rain shield and
embedded convection along a west-east oriented, southward-sagging
front over the north-central Gulf. This rain activity is possibly
the result of a weak disturbance moving eastward across the northern
Gulf of America within the base of a larger-scale mean trough over
the central and eastern part of North America. This disturbance is
forecast to move into north FL late today and east of the FL/GA
coasts by mid-late evening.
Considerable cloudiness will likely persist near/north of I-4 and
combine with meager low to mid tropospheric lapse rates to thereby
limit destabilization. However, a seasonably moist airmass will
probably yield a few hundred J/kg MLCAPE prior to an increasing
prevalence of showers/thunderstorms moving east from the Gulf into
the west/northern portions of the Peninsula towards late this
afternoon and evening. Ample mid- to high-level flow will support
storm-scale rotation contingent on a sufficiently strong updraft or
two developing within this zone of convection. The risk for
localized strong/damaging gusts and perhaps a brief tornado may
accompany the strongest storms, mainly during the 22-08 UTC period,
as this threat shifts from northwest to south across the Peninsula.
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SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0317 PM CST Sun Dec 07 2025
Valid 091200Z - 151200Z
...Synopsis...
Medium range ensemble guidance suggests a somewhat stagnant
upper-level long wave pattern persisting across CONUS through
midweek. The eastern U.S. will remain entrenched in a broader trough
while ridging slowly amplifies and intrudes farther into the western
states through the weekend. The broader northwesterly flow regime
over the central U.S. should provide a source for colder,
continental air mass intrusions into the eastern U.S., particularly
over the weekend time frame which will limit fire weather concerns.
Farther west under the slowly amplifying ridge, dry conditions
should encompass much of the Southwestern U.S. while above normal
temperatures expand west of the Continental Divide. Despite the
upcoming persistent dry conditions across the Southwest, a diffuse
surface pressure gradient and thus lower wind speeds along with
marginal fuel dryness should allay broader fire weather concerns.
...Day 3/Tuesday - Southern High Plains...
A surface trough extending southward from a deepening surface low
across the Northern Plains should promote some overlap of lower
relative humidity and breezy west/southwest winds across
southeastern NM and West Texas on Day 3/Tuesday. However, marginal
fuel dryness precludes introducing critical probabilities at this
time.
..Williams.. 12/07/2025
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
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