22.9F
Current conditions from King Hill
Updated every 5 minutes
 
  Tuesday March 19, 2024

RSS Mesoscale Discussions from Storm Prediction Center

SPC - No watches are valid as of Tue Mar 19 10:22:02 UTC 2024

No watches are valid as of Tue Mar 19 10:22:02 UTC 2024.


No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Tue Mar 19 10:22:02 UTC 2024.

SPC Mar 19, 2024 0730 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
      
Day 3 Outlook Image
Day 3 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0229 AM CDT Tue Mar 19 2024

Valid 211200Z - 221200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY INTO
THURSDAY EVENING ACORSS PARTS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST
TEXAS...ADJACENT SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA...

...SUMMARY...
Strong thunderstorms may impact parts of central and southeast Texas
into adjacent portions of southwestern Louisiana on Thursday.  One
or two organizing clusters could evolve, accompanied by at least
some risk for severe hail and wind.

...Synopsis...
It appears that split westerlies will continue to trend more zonal
to the east of the Rockies during this period, in the wake of a
deepening and occluding cyclone migrating northeastward across the
Canadian Maritimes.  Models suggest that the leading edge of a
significant cold intrusion trailing the cyclone will stall across
the southern Mid Atlantic, and perhaps substantively begin to modify
across the Tennessee Valley and Ozark Plateau into the lower Ohio
and Missouri Valleys.  

Across the Great Plains, some of this cold air may continue to nose
southward toward the Texas South Plains, in the wake of mid-level
troughing progressing east of the southern Rockies/northern Mexican
Plateau toward the lower Mississippi Valley/northwestern Gulf of
Mexico.  Although substantive spread is evident in the various model
output concerning a couple of smaller-scale embedded perturbations,
it appears that one mid-level cyclonic vorticity center will weaken
while progressing east-southeast of the Texas Panhandle vicinity
early the period.  A trailing perturbation may become better-defined
while progressing east of the Permian Basin/Texas Bend through the
upper Texas coast vicinity by late Thursday night.  Models suggest
that this could support a developing surface low across the upper
Texas coastal plain/northwestern Gulf coast vicinity, along the
western flank of a developing frontal zone extending
east-southeastward into the southeastern Gulf of Mexico.  However,
it still appears that any cyclogenesis will be rather weak.

...Southeast Texas...
Moderate boundary-layer CAPE developing beneath warm and capping
elevated mixed-layer air may spread north-northwest of middle Texas
coastal areas, toward the Interstate 35 corridor of central Texas
during the day.  This may be aided by a corridor of stronger daytime
heating, but much will depend on the extent of convective
development which may be spreading east-northeastward into middle
Texas coastal areas at the outset of the period, supported by
forcing for ascent associated with a perturbation emanating from the
subtropical eastern Pacific.

There is some signal in the model output that this activity could
grow upscale, supported by increasingly moist/unstable low-level
inflow, while progressing across the coastal plain into the western
Gulf of Mexico.  If this occurs, potential for renewed vigorous
thunderstorm later in the day across parts of central into southeast
Texas becomes more unclear.  Barring a substantive negative impact
on further inland destabilization, forcing for ascent with the
primary upstream  short wave may contribute to the initiation of
scattered thunderstorm activity by late afternoon.  In the presence
of strong deep-layer shear, supercells capable of producing large
hail and locally damaging wind gusts will be possible.  Although
low-level hodographs may be modest to weak, a tornado or two will
probably also be possible.

Into Thursday evening, convection may tend to consolidate and grow
upscale into an organizing cluster near or just ahead of the
developing surface low across upper Texas into southwestern
Louisiana coastal areas. 

It is possible that severe probabilities across at least parts of
upper Texas coastal areas will need to be increased in later
outlooks.  However, this may take a few cycles with much depending
on sub-synoptic developments.

..Kerr.. 03/19/2024

Read more

SPC Mar 19, 2024 Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook

Day 4-8 Outlook
      
Day 4-8 Outlook Image
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0359 AM CDT Tue Mar 19 2024

Valid 221200Z - 271200Z

...DISCUSSION...
Medium-range models continue to suggest that flow will trend more
progressive across the central into eastern mid-latitude Pacific by
early this coming weekend.  As this occurs, a blocking regime
initially centered over the northeastern Pacific is forecast to
breakdown, with flow subsequently amplifying downstream, across the
U.S. into western Atlantic.

It appears that this will include mid/upper trough amplification
across and offshore of the southern Atlantic coast on Saturday,
accompanied by strengthening cyclogenesis.  Surface frontal wave
development is still generally forecast to remain more modest across
the northeastern Gulf/eastern Gulf Coast into Georgia/Carolina
Atlantic coast vicinity Friday through Friday night, but there may
be considerable convective development within a destabilizing
environment along a warm frontal zone across the Gulf of Mexico by
early Friday.  It appears that this will spread across the Florida
peninsula and Florida Keys during the day Friday.  However, models
suggest that an initially (relatively) dry/potentially cool
environment may preclude an appreciable risk of severe storms, as
initial convection spreads into this environment, weakens and
suppresses destabilization.

Late this coming weekend into early next week, models continue to
suggest that short wave perturbations, within amplifying large-scale
mid-level troughing spreading inland of the Pacific coast through
the Great Plains and Mississippi Valley, may support significant
surface cyclogenesis to the lee of the southern Rockies.  However,
severe weather potential in association with this still seems
largely conditioned on the degree of warm sector destabilization,
which remains unclear.

In the wake of one significant intrusion of cool/dry air through
much of the northern Gulf Basin, reinforced at least somewhat in the
wake of the amplifying system off the South Atlantic coast early
this weekend, low-level moisture return to the warm sector remains
in question.  More substantive low-level moistening appears probable
into the southeastern Great Plains on Monday, compared to the
central/southern high plains on Sunday.  However, as this occurs and
model spread becomes more pronounced concerning a short wave
emerging from the Southwest.

Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
          
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook Image
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0156 AM CDT Tue Mar 19 2024

Valid 191200Z - 201200Z

...NO CRITICAL AREAS...

...Synopsis...
A split flow regime will develop over the U.S. throughout the day
with a belt of northwesterly flow in the Midwest and subtropical
westerlies at lower latitudes. No widespread areas of Elevated
fire-weather conditions are expected, although some localized gusty
and dry conditions may develop in portions of the Appalachians and
High Plains.

...Ohio River Valley southward through western NC and SC...
As a cold front continues to push southeastward through the East
Coast and FL Peninsula, locally stronger post-frontal surface winds
could yield Elevated fire-weather conditions in regions of locally
drier fuels. The lowest relative humidities are expected from the
Ohio River Valley southward through western NC and SC along the
eastern slopes of the Appalachians. Low confidence exists regarding
the overlap of strongest surface winds, drier conditions, and
receptive fuels, precluding any Elevated areas at this time.

...Southern High Plains...
The surface pattern across the Southern High Plains will be
influenced by steady, post-frontal high pressure along the Gulf
Coast and a developing, mid-level cutoff low over the Four Corners
region. This will yield gradual moisture return across the Southern
Plains, bounded to the west by drier southwesterly flow. Locally
windy (around 15+ mph) and dry (relative humidities around 20-25
percent) conditions may develop across portions of the TX/OK
Panhandles. Some precipitation has occurred across the region in the
last few days, but locally drier fuels may support pockets of
heightened fire-weather conditions on Tuesday afternoon.

..Flournoy.. 03/19/2024

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
          
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook Image
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0157 AM CDT Tue Mar 19 2024

Valid 201200Z - 211200Z

...Synopsis...
A split-flow regime will support separate regions of possible
fire-weather conditions on Wednesday. Elevated fire-weather
conditions are possible across portions of the southeastern NM and
West TX on Wednesday afternoon. Localized areas of dry, windy
conditions are also possible across the Mid-Atlantic, although lower
confidence in fuel levels currently precludes any Elevated areas.

...Southeastern NM and West TX...
An initial cutoff low is expected to shift eastward throughout the
day on Wednesday, yielding westerly flow aloft and a deepening
surface cyclone near the NM/TX border. This will yield prolonged
westerly surface flow up to around 15-20 mph and relative humidities
dropping to around 15 percent. Current guidance suggests fuels are
not at critical levels, but much of the region has not measured any
precipitation in the last two weeks. Predictability is slightly
lower due to the nature of the cutoff low and timing of the
eastward-ejecting trough. However, confidence is sufficient to
introduce an Elevated area representing the location of driest and
windiest conditions on Wednesday afternoon.

...Mid-Atlantic...
Gusty, post-frontal conditions will persist throughout the day on
Wednesday across the Mid-Atlantic. The driest conditions are
currently expected in central VA, where relative humidities around
25-30 percent are possible amidst surface winds of 10-15 mph.
Pockets of drier fuels may support locally higher fire-weather
conditions, but relatively low confidence precludes an Elevated area
at this time.

..Flournoy.. 03/19/2024

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

Read more


 
 
Current Radar Loop:

Copyright © WestfordWeather.net 2007-2024. All rights reserved.