RSS Mesoscale Discussions from Storm Prediction Center
No watches are valid as of Fri Apr 24 09:04:01 UTC 2026.
No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Fri Apr 24 09:04:01 UTC 2026.
SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1252 AM CDT Fri Apr 24 2026
Valid 241200Z - 251200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...ARK-LA-TEX AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...
...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected today from the Southern
Plains into the Ark-La-Tex and Lower Mississippi Valley. Large hail,
damaging winds and a few tornadoes will be possible. Isolated strong
wind gusts may also occur in parts of the lower Ohio Valley and
southern Great Lakes.
...Southern Plains/Ark-La-Tex/Lower Mississippi Valley...
A mid-level shortwave trough will move northeastward into the mid
Mississippi Valley today, as cyclonic west to southwesterly flow
remains over much of the south-central U.S. At the surface, an
outflow boundary will advance southward into the Ark-La-Tex and
lower Mississippi Valley this morning. Thunderstorms will be ongoing
along the boundary at the start of the period. These storms will
move southward across Arkansas, Louisiana and Mississippi. As
surface temperatures warm during the day, a wind-damage threat is
expected along the more organized parts of this line. A couple of
tornadoes will also be possible with rotating elements embedded in
the line.
Further west into the southern Plains, an axis of moderate
instability is forecast to develop by afternoon from east Texas into
far southern Oklahoma. Additional storms are expected to initiate
during the mid afternoon along an east-to-west axis of low-level
convergence in southeast Oklahoma. These storms are expected to move
southward into northeast Texas and northwestern Louisiana during the
late afternoon and early evening. Forecast soundings near the Red
River in far southeast Oklahoma late this afternoon have MLCAPE near
3500 J/kg, 0-6 km shear in the 30 to 35 knot range, and 700-500 mb
lapse rates near 8 C/km. This will support supercells with isolated
large hail. Hailstones of greater than 2 inches in diameter will be
possible. In addition, 0-3 km storm-relative helicity is forecast to
reach near 225 m2/s2, which will support a tornado threat with
supercells. If the storms can transition into a short intense line
segment, then a localized swath of wind damage may also occur.
...Southern Great Lakes/Ohio Valley...
A mid-level shortwave trough, and an associated cold front will move
northeastward into the Great Lakes region today. Ahead of the front,
a moist airmass will be in place from the Lower Ohio Valley
northward into lower Michigan. As surface temperatures warm during
the day, surface dewpoints in the lower 60s F will contribute to
weak destabilization. This, combined with increasing low-level
convergence will support thunderstorm development ahead of the
front. These storms will move eastward across the southern Great
Lakes and Ohio Valley during the afternoon. Forecast soundings ahead
of the storms have very steep low-level lapse rates approaching 8
C/km, which could support an isolated wind-damage threat.
..Broyles/Moore.. 04/24/2026
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SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1234 AM CDT Fri Apr 24 2026
Valid 251200Z - 261200Z
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH CENTRAL AND EASTERN
OKLAHOMA...ADJACENT PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN KANSAS AND WESTERN
ARKANSAS...
...SUMMARY...
One or two clusters of strong to severe thunderstorms, posing a risk
for large hail and damaging wind gusts, are possible across parts of
the southeastern Great Plains Saturday afternoon and evening.
...Discussion...
Downstream of an initially amplified, but becoming increasingly
suppressed, blocking ridge, models indicate that the center of a
deep mid-level low now forming over southern Saskatchewan may only
move subtly northward or northwestward through this period. It
appears that the broader cyclonic circulation will continue to
elongate Saturday through Saturday night, with one notable emerging
short wave perturbation accelerating north of the international
border through northwestern Quebec. To the southwest of the
residual mid-level low, a couple of additional emerging
perturbations are forecast to contribute to south-southwestward
digging troughing along and inland of the U.S. Pacific coast.
In response to the latter development, a fairly significant short
wave impulse is forecast to accelerate east-northeastward out of the
southern mid-latitude eastern Pacific, inland of the Pacific coast
through the southern Great Basin and lower Colorado Valley by 12Z
Sunday. Downstream, mid-level heights are forecast to generally
rise with large-scale ridging building across the southern Rockies
through much of the Great Plains and Mississippi Valley. Models
continue to suggest that this may be slowed a bit by subtle
mid-level height falls associated with a weak short wave
perturbation progressing east of the southern Rockies, through
portions of Kansas and Oklahoma during the day Saturday.
In lower levels, seasonably moist air, supportive of moderate to
strong potential instability beneath steep mid-level lapse rates,
appears likely to remain confined beneath the larger-scale mid-level
ridging. Initially this will be south of the Red River through the
lower Mississippi Valley, along and south of a convectively enhanced
surface front which may become increasingly diffuse through the day.
Models vary with the extent to which this occurs across and north
of the Red River through the Texas/Oklahoma Panhandle vicinity, but
a dryline is generally forecast to sharpen roughly from the Wichita
Falls TX through Del Rio TX vicinity by late Saturday afternoon,
near the southeastern periphery of broad weak surface troughing.
...Central/Southern Great Plains...
Model disparity concerning the evolution of surface boundaries and
boundary-layer moistening/destabilization to the north of the Red
River add uncertainty to this forecast. Stronger mid-level ridging
and capping will remain present to the south of the Red River, as
subtle mid-level height falls overspread parts of Kansas/Oklahoma
through the day.
At some point, it appears that large-scale forcing for ascent aided
by lower/mid-tropospheric warm advection will support increasing
thunderstorm development within elevated moisture return and
destabilization. Latest convection allowing guidance suggests
highest probabilities for this to occur may be well to the north and
east of the dryline, across parts of north central Oklahoma by mid
to late afternoon, when it appears that at least elevated
destabilization may support the risk for large hail, perhaps
occasionally in excess of 2 inches in diameter, in the presence of
strong cloud-bearing layer shear.
Even if the near-surface inflow for this activity begins to emanate
from a more unstable boundary-layer, rather modest to weak low-level
hodographs probably will limit tornadic potential. However,
increasing and consolidating convective development could gradually
organize and become capable of producing strong to severe wind gusts
late Saturday afternoon and evening, while tending to propagate
southeastward across eastern Oklahoma and adjacent portions of
Arkansas.
..Kerr.. 04/24/2026
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SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0230 AM CDT Fri Apr 24 2026
Valid 261200Z - 271200Z
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY EVENING
INTO SUNDAY NIGHT ACROSS MUCH OF KANSAS AND ADJACENT PORTIONS OF
NORTHERN OKLAHOMA...WESTERN MISSOURI...
...SUMMARY...
Widely scattered severe storms with potential to produce large hail
and a couple of strong tornadoes are possible by early Sunday
evening across parts of the central and southern Great Plains,
before one or two organizing clusters of storms spread toward the
middle/lower Missouri Valley with potentially damaging wind gusts.
...Discussion...
A remnant elongated cyclonic mid-level circulation/shear axis may
tend to shift north-northeastward through Saskatchewan/Manitoba
through this period, while larger-scale troughing along an axis
inland of the U.S. Pacific coast through the Hudson Bay vicinity
weakens through this period. However, mid/upper ridging across
southern/central Mexico into portions of the southern Great Plains
and lower Mississippi Valley appears likely to maintain considerable
strength, while a notable short wave perturbation accelerates out of
the southern Great Basin/lower Colorado Valley, within strong
southwesterly flow between the two features.
Models suggest that stronger mid-level height falls will generally
overspread the eastern Colorado/western Kansas/southwest Nebraska
vicinity of the high plains late Sunday afternoon into evening,
before reaching southern portions of the middle Missouri Valley by
12Z Monday, accompanied by a developing low within the northern
portion of deepening surface troughing extending southward into the
southern Great Plains. Another low, developing by Sunday afternoon
across the southeastern Colorado/Texas and Oklahoma Panhandle region
may reach portions of central Kansas.
In response to these developments, seasonably moist low-level air,
initially confined to the southern Great Plains, perhaps as far
north as central Oklahoma at the outset of the period, may tend to
advect in a corridor ahead of a sharpening dryline across western
Oklahoma into western Kansas by late afternoon. Downstream, models
suggest that a warm frontal zone may become better defined by early
Sunday evening across southern Kansas into the Ozark Plateau
vicinity, before tending to shift northward.
...Great Plains...
Although though there is not a strong signal yet evident within
latest model output concerning potential convective evolution during
this period, at least isolated to perhaps widely scattered supercell
development may initiate along the dryline as far south as northwest
Texas by late Sunday afternoon, in the presence of destabilization
and strengthening shear. By early Sunday evening, this probably
will include enlarging, clockwise curved low-level hodographs
beneath a strengthening southerly low-level jet. This may become
supportive of increasing potential for a couple of strong tornadoes,
in addition to large hail, with increasing storm coverage probable
across the western Kansas vicinity.
Gradually, large-scale forcing for ascent, focusing along the warm
front, may support one or two upscale growing clusters of storms
spreading into the middle/lower Missouri Valley overnight, with
damaging wind gusts becoming the more prominent severe hazard along
with perhaps some continuing risk for tornadoes.
..Kerr.. 04/24/2026
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Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0401 AM CDT Fri Apr 24 2026
Valid 271200Z - 021200Z
...DISCUSSION...
Latest medium-range model output suggests that a significant short
wave perturbation emerging from the Southwest will pivot northeast
of the middle/lower Missouri Valley, into the upper Great Lakes
region, Monday through Monday night. It appears that the warm
sector of an associated sub-1000 mb surface cyclone will become
characterized by at least moderately large CAPE, ahead of the
dryline/cold front overspreading much of the middle Mississippi
Valley during the afternoon into evening. In the presence of strong
deep-layer shear, organized severe thunderstorm activity appears
probable. It remains a bit unclear the extent to which sustained
supercell development will be maintained, as opposed to convection
quickly growing upscale into one or more clusters/lines, but there
appears at least some potential for a few strong tornadoes, in
addition to large hail and potentially widespread strong to severe
wind gusts.
In the wake of this activity, into the middle to latter portion of
next week, convective potential becomes more unclear as strong flow
trends westerly, and broadly confluent across and east of the
Rockies, between broad mid-level troughing overspreading the
northern tier and broad mid-level ridging across the southern tier.
Another, initially notable, short wave perturbation emerging from
the southern mid-latitude/subtropical eastern Pacific is still
forecast to progress into the Southwest. But latest model output
suggests that it may become sheared while continuing across and east
of the southern Rockies, with only modest to weak surface
cyclogenesis currently forecast along a remnant frontal zone across
the southern Great Plains through Southeast.
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SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1256 AM CDT Fri Apr 24 2026
Valid 241200Z - 251200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE COLORADO FRONT
RANGE AND ADJACENT HIGH PLAINS...
...Synopsis...
The upper-level ridge situated over the eastern U.S. is expected to
dampen, giving way to a predominantly zonal flow pattern across the
southern tier of the CONUS. Simultaneously, a broad upper-level
trough will remain anchored over the north-central U.S. near the
international border. This setup will maintain a very breezy and
persistently arid environment through the conclusion of the work
week across the Southwest and the central/southern High Plains.
...Southwest and Southern/Central Plains...
Critical fire weather conditions have been highlighted for the
Colorado Rockies and the neighboring High Plains, where latest
forecast guidance indicates a high likelihood of potent winds
coupled with low humidity. At the surface, lee cyclogenesis over
eastern Colorado will further enhance downslope winds along the
Front Range, while southwesterly winds prevail across the eastern
plains. Robust vertical mixing during peak heating is forecast to
descend 15-25 mph sustained winds to the surface. When combined with
relative humidity levels falling to 10-15% (and locally into the
single digits), these conditions will impact exceptionally dry fuels
already stressed by a multi-day stretch of fire weather activity.
While increasing cloud cover late in the day may offer some minor
mitigation of the threat before dusk, the fire environment remains
heightened. Consequently, Elevated highlights include much of the
Southwest and include the Four Corners region through western
Colorado. In these areas, westerly winds of 15-20 mph and humidity
levels below 20% will coincide with ERCs reaching the 75th to 90th
percentile.
...Carolinas...
As the eastern CONUS ridge breaks down, breezy westerly surface
winds (remaining under 10 mph sustained) can be expected over much
of the Carolinas today. While these conditions will not meet
criteria for elevated conditions, continued offshore flow will
likely result in RHs falling below 20% amid above-normal
temperatures over already dry fuels, keeping the fire environment
primed.
..Stearns/Moore.. 04/24/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
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SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1257 AM CDT Fri Apr 24 2026
Valid 251200Z - 261200Z
...Synopsis...
A broad, large-scale upper level trough will be anchored near the
international border over the central US through the weekend. To the
east, the prevailing upper-level ridge will collapse on Day
2/Saturday as an approaching mid-level shortwave trough triggers
widespread precipitation over the Midwest and Appalachians. This
change is expected to provide some relief to the critically dry
fuels over these regions. However, for areas bypassed by appreciable
rainfall (especially east of the southern Appalachians), the fire
risk posed by lingering drought conditions will persist.
...Southern Plains into portions of the Southwest...
Zonal flow aloft will remain in place across the Southwest on
Saturday, sustaining very breezy and dry conditions. Following
several consecutive days of heightened fire weather, the fuel
environment remains highly stressed, especially over northern
extents of the drawn area. Westerly downslope winds of 15-20 mph
will coincide with relative humidity values of 10-20% over receptive
fuels, further aggravating the fire risk. Consequently, an Elevated
area exists for Day 2/Saturday across much of New Mexico, southeast
Arizona, and portions of west Texas where fuels are receptive. While
the dryline is expected to surge farther east across
southwest/central Texas, fuel conditions near and south/east of
Midland appear to be less receptive overall. However, this event
will work to dry fuels over this region and may promote future risk
across this area.
..Stearns/Moore.. 04/24/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
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