RSS Mesoscale Discussions from Storm Prediction Center
No watches are valid as of Sat Dec 20 17:37:02 UTC 2025.
No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Sat Dec 20 17:37:02 UTC 2025.
SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0953 AM CST Sat Dec 20 2025
Valid 201630Z - 211200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
A few lightning flashes may occur today near coastal Washington, and
tonight over southern Louisiana.
Dry and stable conditions will prevail over most of the CONUS today,
precluding thunderstorms. One exception will be over western WA
west of the Cascades, where fast onshore flow, orographic lift, and
100-200 J/kg of CAPE will be present. The other area of some risk
of lightning will be over southern LA tonight in a weak low-level
warm advection regime. In both areas, thunderstorm coverage is
anticipated to be sparse and severe risk negligible.
..Hart/Karstens.. 12/20/2025
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SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1104 AM CST Sat Dec 20 2025
Valid 211200Z - 221200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected Sunday.
...Synopsis...
Zonal flow aloft will become modestly more amplified on Sunday.
Upper-level ridging will become more prominent in the central U.S. A
low-amplitude shortwave trough will move into the Northwest during
the evening. Isolated low-topped thunderstorms may impact coastal
areas of Washington and far northwest Oregon. Along the central Gulf
coast, a cold front will slow and become nearly stationary inland. A
weak warm/moist advection regime could lead to development of
showers. Given the slight rise in mid-level heights, residual
capping, and lack of greater low-level forcing, potential for
thunderstorm development within this regime still appears low.
..Wendt.. 12/20/2025
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SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1035 AM CST Sat Dec 20 2025
Valid 201700Z - 211200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR FAR EASTERN NEW MEXICO INTO THE
TEXAS SOUTH PLAINS...
...Update...
No changes were required for today's forecast. Expect increasing
westerly winds throughout the afternoon, with RH dropping into the
low teens to single digits. Please see the previous discussion for
additional details.
..Barnes.. 12/20/2025
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0110 AM CST Sat Dec 20 2025/
...Synopsis...
A mid-level trough will gradually amplify while traversing the Great
Lakes today, encouraging the southward translation of a weakening
surface low across the southern Plains. As a result, dry downslope
flow is expected across portions of eastern New Mexico into western
Texas ahead of a southward-sagging surface cold front today. During
the afternoon, with boundary-layer mixing, RH will drop below 20
percent over several locales as sustained westerly surface winds
exceeding 15 mph becomes abundant, warranting the continuation of
Elevated highlights. Guidance consensus continues to depict
overlapping 20+ mph sustained westerly surface winds amid 15 percent
RH along portions of the New Mexico/Texas border, where Critical
highlights have been maintained.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
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