RSS Mesoscale Discussions from Storm Prediction Center
No watches are valid as of Thu Jan 8 19:36:02 UTC 2026.
No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Thu Jan 8 19:36:02 UTC 2026.
SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1034 AM CST Thu Jan 08 2026
Valid 081630Z - 091200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR EASTERN
OKLAHOMA AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS INTO WESTERN MISSOURI AND NORTHWEST
ARKANSAS...
...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe gusts are possible through midday across eastern
portions of Oklahoma and Kansas into western parts of Missouri and
northwest Arkansas. A more broad and isolated risk for damaging
gusts and possibly a tornado will persist into tonight from the
Ozark Plateau eastward into the low/mid Mississippi and lower Ohio
Valleys.
...Ozark Plateau...
Water-vapor imagery late this morning shows a potent, negatively
tilted shortwave trough and associated speed max/dry slot moving
northeast across the KS-OK border. A broad moist conveyor ahead of
the upper disturbance is contributing to a plume of 50s to lower 60s
dewpoints from AR into MO ahead of a northeastward-migrating cyclone
forecast to move from KS to northern Lower MI. A broken band of
severe thunderstorms this morning is moving rapidly northeast posing
primarily a severe-wind gust risk over western parts of the Ozark
Plateau through the midday hours. Weaker buoyancy farther east will
be partially offset by a strong northward flux of low-level moisture
as the airmass slowly destabilizes beneath an extensive cloud
canopy. It remains uncertain whether a focused and more
concentrated risk for severe will persist into the afternoon across
the Ozarks. Nonetheless, an established/mature convective band may
continue to yield wind-damage potential given the strong kinematics.
...Lower MO Valley into the Mid MS and Lower OH Valleys...
Strengthening southerly low-level flow and the intensification of a
LLJ (60-70 kt) will favor a gradual moistening from south to north
across the region through the afternoon and into the evening.
Forecast soundings later today into this evening show enlarged
hodographs across portions of IL where meager buoyancy is eventually
forecast to develop. Considered a small Slight-Risk but uncertainty
in buoyancy magnitude and possible convective line-parallel shear
lowers confidence for perhaps a more focused wind hazard this
evening. However, have adjusted low-tornado probabilities farther
north into central IL to the southeast of the evolving cyclone where
weak surface-based buoyancy may develop.
...Mid-South/Lower MS Valley...
Much of the region will remain free of convection until after 04Z
when increasing low-level confluence may support isolated
thunderstorms. Buoyancy will be modest, but vertical shear will be
strong enough to support the potential for a few damaging gusts.
...Southern AZ...
A shortwave trough and associated jet streak are forecast to
progress across AZ today. Scant low-level moisture will be in place
ahead of this wave but cooling mid-level temperatures and modest
mid-level moisture could still support limited buoyancy and the
potential for isolated thunderstorms. Given the robust mid-level
flow associated with this system, a few stronger gusts are possible.
However, overall coverage is currently expected to remain below 5%.
..Smith/Jirak.. 01/08/2026
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SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0132 PM CST Thu Jan 08 2026
Valid 082000Z - 091200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE MISSOURI...MISSISSIPPI...AND OHIO RIVER VALLEYS...
...SUMMARY...
An isolated risk for damaging gusts and possibly a tornado will
continue tonight from the Ozark Plateau eastward into the low/mid
Mississippi and lower Ohio Valleys.
...20z Update...
The Slight Risk across eastern Oklahoma into southeast Kansas,
western Missouri, and western Arkansas was removed with this update.
The Marginal Risk was also trimmed behind ongoing convection. A
broken line of storms continues eastward from southern Missouri into
central Arkansas but has shown signs of weakening as it has outrun
the better moisture to the south. Hi-res guidance from the HRRR and
RRFS suggest redevelopment of stronger storms, and perhaps a
supercell or two, will be possible across central and northeastern
Arkansas later this afternoon.
There are a few breaks in the cloud cover across central/southern
Arkansas that could allow for pockets of heating by the afternoon,
but overall thermal profiles appear meager, though deep layer shear
will remain strong. This leads to some uncertainty in maintenance of
any supercells that do develop and as such, a Marginal was
maintained to support some isolated threat.
Another location of interest for the evening will be across portions
of Illinois, as mentioned in the previous outlook. Across
south-central Illinois some better overlap of weak surface-based
instability beneath the LLJ may occur later this evening. See
previous discussion below for more information.
..Thornton.. 01/08/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1034 AM CST Thu Jan 08 2026/
...Ozark Plateau...
Water-vapor imagery late this morning shows a potent, negatively
tilted shortwave trough and associated speed max/dry slot moving
northeast across the KS-OK border. A broad moist conveyor ahead of
the upper disturbance is contributing to a plume of 50s to lower 60s
dewpoints from AR into MO ahead of a northeastward-migrating cyclone
forecast to move from KS to northern Lower MI. A broken band of
severe thunderstorms this morning is moving rapidly northeast posing
primarily a severe-wind gust risk over western parts of the Ozark
Plateau through the midday hours. Weaker buoyancy farther east will
be partially offset by a strong northward flux of low-level moisture
as the airmass slowly destabilizes beneath an extensive cloud
canopy. It remains uncertain whether a focused and more
concentrated risk for severe will persist into the afternoon across
the Ozarks. Nonetheless, an established/mature convective band may
continue to yield wind-damage potential given the strong kinematics.
...Lower MO Valley into the Mid MS and Lower OH Valleys...
Strengthening southerly low-level flow and the intensification of a
LLJ (60-70 kt) will favor a gradual moistening from south to north
across the region through the afternoon and into the evening.
Forecast soundings later today into this evening show enlarged
hodographs across portions of IL where meager buoyancy is eventually
forecast to develop. Considered a small Slight-Risk but uncertainty
in buoyancy magnitude and possible convective line-parallel shear
lowers confidence for perhaps a more focused wind hazard this
evening. However, have adjusted low-tornado probabilities farther
north into central IL to the southeast of the evolving cyclone where
weak surface-based buoyancy may develop.
...Mid-South/Lower MS Valley...
Much of the region will remain free of convection until after 04Z
when increasing low-level confluence may support isolated
thunderstorms. Buoyancy will be modest, but vertical shear will be
strong enough to support the potential for a few damaging gusts.
...Southern AZ...
A shortwave trough and associated jet streak are forecast to
progress across AZ today. Scant low-level moisture will be in place
ahead of this wave but cooling mid-level temperatures and modest
mid-level moisture could still support limited buoyancy and the
potential for isolated thunderstorms. Given the robust mid-level
flow associated with this system, a few stronger gusts are possible.
However, overall coverage is currently expected to remain below 5%.
Read more
SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1128 AM CST Thu Jan 08 2026
Valid 091200Z - 101200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE CENTRAL
GULF COAST INTO THE LOWER MS AND TN VALLEYS...
...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are forecast on Friday from the central Gulf
Coast into parts of the lower Mississippi, Tennessee and Ohio
Valleys.
...East TX into the Lower MS/TN/OH Valleys...
At the start of the period, a midlevel shortwave trough and
accompanying surface cyclone will be departing the Great Lakes
region, while a southwestward-extending cold front moves eastward
across the OH and TN Valleys -- stalling with southward extent
across the lower MS Valley and western Gulf Coast. Bands of
thunderstorms will be ongoing within a plume of low-level warm
advection along/ahead of the front -- within an environment
characterized by strong deep-layer flow/shear and limited buoyancy.
Given the expected linear nature of these storms amid strong
low-level flow, damaging gusts will be the primary concern before
this activity outpaces the warm sector with eastward extent.
Farther south and west, a broad midlevel trough will move eastward
across the southern Plains toward the MS Valley through the period.
Guidance has trended generally slower with this feature in recent
runs, with only modest midlevel height falls impinging on the
frontal zone and warm sector during the peak convective period. As a
result, the overall low-level mass response appears to be somewhat
muted compared to earlier runs, with initial frontal-wave
development farther south near LA.
Nevertheless, strengthening low-level warm advection east of the
developing frontal wave/surface cyclone will yield an uptick in
thunderstorm coverage and intensity within confluence bands from the
central Gulf Coast northward into the lower MS and TN Valleys during
the afternoon into the evening/overnight hours. Here, upper 60s to
near 70 dewpoints (already in place along the central Gulf Coast)
will spread northward and destabilize the inland air mass. Despite
modest buoyancy, this rich moisture and strong low/deep-layer shear
(with increasing low-level hodograph size/curvature) will favor a
mix of semi-discrete supercells and clusters -- posing a risk of
damaging gusts and a couple tornadoes. Depending on the strength of
the low-level jet/mass response, a corridor of higher severe
potential will be possible from parts of LA into southern/central
MS.
Additional thunderstorm development/intensification is possible in
east TX along/ahead of the stalling front during the afternoon,
where sufficient buoyancy and a long/straight hodograph will support
a couple organized storms and attendant risk of damaging winds and
severe hail.
..Weinman.. 01/08/2026
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SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0127 PM CST Thu Jan 08 2026
Valid 101200Z - 111200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE
SOUTHEAST INTO PARTS OF THE CAROLINAS AND SOUTHERN VIRGINIA...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible on Saturday from the
Southeast into parts of the Carolinas and southern Virginia.
...Southeast into the Carolinas and Virginia...
Within a swath of broad/strong midlevel southwesterly flow across
the eastern half of the CONUS, a robust midlevel jet will advance
northeastward from the lower OH Valley into the
Mid-Atlantic/Northeast -- while phasing with an upstream trough and
related midlevel jet. An accompanying frontal wave/weak surface
cyclone -- initially over the TN Valley -- will track northeastward
along a remnant frontal zone toward the Northeast in tandem with the
midlevel jet.
At the start of the period, broken bands of thunderstorms will
likely be ongoing across the central Gulf Coast into the Southeast,
along/east of the frontal zone/surface wave. While buoyancy will be
somewhat limited (especially with northward extent toward northern
AL), ample boundary-layer moisture and a focused low-level jet will
continue to promote a few strong to severe storms, with a risk of
damaging gusts and a tornado. While uncertain, there appears to be a
corridor of relatively higher severe potential from parts of
south-central AL into GA, and this area continues to be monitored
for a potential upgrade.
Thunderstorms will spread east-northeastward through the day, as the
midlevel jet and surface wave track northeastward. Buoyancy will
become limited with northward extent, though the
northeastward-moving low-level jet and strong deep-layer shear will
continue to yield a risk of damaging gusts and perhaps a tornado
with any stronger storms that spread into the Carolinas and southern
VA.
..Weinman.. 01/08/2026
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SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0935 AM CST Thu Jan 08 2026
Valid 081700Z - 091200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
Locally elevated conditions remain likely across portions of
southwest into west-central Texas mostly from just east-northeast of
the Big Bend extending onto the Edwards Plateau and into the western
Hill Country then extending southward towards Del Rio/vicinity. This
area missed the recent rainfall, and westerly sustained winds of
15-20 mph and minimum RH of 20-30% are likely to develop across
portions of this area.
..Nauslar.. 01/08/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0136 AM CST Thu Jan 08 2026/
...Synopsis...
A broad mid-level trough, with multiple embedded mid-level impulses,
will traverse the central U.S. today, with a surface cyclone poised
to deepen while translating from the central Plains to the Great
Lakes in tandem with the first mid-level impulse. As this occurs, a
broad region of 15-25 mph sustained westerly surface winds will
overspread western Texas into Oklahoma behind a cold front through
the day. However, RH will dip only into the 25-40 percent range, and
will be preceded by appreciable rainfall accumulations, putting fuel
receptiveness to wildfire spread into question. While localized
wildfire spread potential is evident, such conditions do not appear
widespread enough to warrant fire weather highlights.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
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SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0120 PM CST Thu Jan 08 2026
Valid 091200Z - 101200Z
The Elevated area was expanded in the Big Bend and into northwest
Texas, while it was adjusted from Del Rio to Laredo into the western
Hill Country based on the latest high-resolution forecast guidance.
West-northwest sustained winds of 15-25 mph and minimum RH of 15-25%
are likely from the Big Bend into northwest Texas and the western
Hill Country during the afternoon and early evening. Winds will
shift to north-northwest as another cold front drops south across
Texas during the evening and overnight. Locally elevated to elevated
conditions are expected in the evening across the western Hill
Country/vicinity and shifting southwards into portions of south
Texas overnight, mostly focused closer to the Rio Grande.
Gusty and dry north-northeast winds are expected again across
southern California, but recent precipitation has left fuel moisture
above normal and well above critical thresholds.
..Nauslar.. 01/08/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0153 AM CST Thu Jan 08 2026/
...Synopsis...
A mid-level trough will gradually traverse the central CONUS today,
supporting the development of a weak surface low over the Sabine
River Valley, with a surface cold front sweeping across the southern
Plains tomorrow (Friday). To the west of the aforementioned low and
ahead of the surface cold front, dry downslope flow is expected
across much of western Texas Friday afternoon for at least a few
hours. 15-25 mph sustained westerly surface winds will overlap with
15-20 percent RH. Elevated highlights have been added to account for
these conditions. There are questions regarding how appreciable
rainfall accumulations will be in west-central Texas, where Elevated
highlights may need adjustments in future outlooks.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
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