RSS Mesoscale Discussions from Storm Prediction Center
WW 362 SEVERE TSTM KS MO 210500Z - 211100Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 362
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1200 AM CDT Sun Jun 21 2026
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of
Southeast and Eastern Kansas
Western Missouri
* Effective this Sunday morning from Midnight until 600 AM CDT.
* Primary threats include...
Scattered damaging winds and isolated significant gusts to 75
mph possible
Isolated large hail events to 1 inch in diameter possible
A tornado or two possible
SUMMARY...A severe squall line will move into the Watch area
tonight. Severe straight-line wind gusts 60 to 75 mph are possible
with the more intense portions of the squall line. A brief tornado
from a mesovortex is also possible.
The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 80
statute miles east and west of a line from 20 miles west northwest
of Leavenworth KS to 55 miles south southwest of Chanute KS. For a
complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline
update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU2).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.
&&
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 359...WW 360...WW 361...
AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
1 inch. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 65 knots. A few
cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 450. Mean storm motion vector
27040.
...Smith
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WW 0362 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 362
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 ESE ICT
TO 40 E ICT TO 30 W CNU TO 25 SE EMP TO 20 SSW TOP TO 25 NNE TOP
TO 10 SW STJ.
..BROYLES..06/21/26
ATTN...WFO...ICT...TOP...EAX...SGF...
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 362
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
KSC001-003-011-019-021-031-035-037-045-049-059-091-099-103-107-
121-125-133-139-205-207-209-211040-
KS
. KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ALLEN ANDERSON BOURBON
CHAUTAUQUA CHEROKEE COFFEY
COWLEY CRAWFORD DOUGLAS
ELK FRANKLIN JOHNSON
LABETTE LEAVENWORTH LINN
MIAMI MONTGOMERY NEOSHO
OSAGE WILSON WOODSON
WYANDOTTE
MOC011-013-037-047-095-097-165-217-211040-
MO
. MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BARTON BATES CASS
CLAY JACKSON JASPER
PLATTE VERNON
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WW 0361 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 361
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SW AVK TO
30 NW P28 TO 15 ESE ICT.
..BROYLES..06/21/26
ATTN...WFO...DDC...ICT...OUN...AMA...
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 361
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
KSC007-077-095-151-173-191-210840-
KS
. KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BARBER HARPER KINGMAN
PRATT SEDGWICK SUMNER
OKC003-053-071-210840-
OK
. OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ALFALFA GRANT KAY
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
Read more
WW 0359 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 359
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 N P28 TO
40 W HUT TO 20 NW HUT TO 30 ENE HUT TO 40 ESE SLN TO 15 SE MHK.
..BROYLES..06/21/26
ATTN...WFO...ICT...TOP...DDC...GID...OAX...
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 359
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
KSC017-079-115-127-155-197-210840-
KS
. KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CHASE HARVEY MARION
MORRIS RENO WABAUNSEE
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
Read more
No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Sun Jun 21 09:30:13 UTC 2026.
SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1254 AM CDT Sun Jun 21 2026
Valid 211200Z - 221200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE OZARKS AND OHIO VALLEY...
...SUMMARY...
Severe storms are possible from the central High Plains into the
Ohio Valley, mainly this afternoon into tonight. Large to very large
hail, severe winds, and tornadoes will be possible. Some
strong-tornado potential could develop across parts of Missouri,
Illinois, and Indiana during the afternoon and early evening.
...Parts of MO into the Ohio Valley...
An all-hazards severe threat, including some conditional
strong-tornado potential, is still evident from parts of MO into the
Ohio Valley later today, though uncertainty remains regarding the
magnitude and most favored corridor of the greatest threat. No
upgrade was made with this outlook, though greater tornado and/or
wind probabilities may eventually be needed, depending on how the
uncertainties are resolved.
Guidance generally suggests that an MCV currently evolving across KS
will move across central/northern MO through the morning, before
moving into parts of the Midwest and Ohio Valley through the
afternoon. In association with the MCV, a surface low may deepen
along a front and move across parts of central MO/IL. Guidance
varies regarding the strength of the surface low, enhancement to
low-level shear/SRH, and magnitude of destabilization in advance of
the MCV. However, in general, rich moisture and enlarged low-level
hodographs will support development of a storm cluster with embedded
supercells and/or mesovortices, if sufficient diurnal
destabilization occurs. Tornadoes and damaging winds could accompany
any organized cells/clusters. Strong-tornado potential could evolve
if any supercells can be sustained within this regime.
In the wake of the MCV, relatively strong heating will support at
least moderate destabilization along the trailing front across parts
of central/southern MO. While some weakening/veering of low-level
flow is expected after the passage of the MCV, deep-layer shear will
remain sufficient for organized development along the boundary,
which could pose an all-hazards severe threat from late afternoon
into the evening from south-central MO into the lower OH Valley.
...Central High Plains into the Ozarks...
A mid/upper-level shortwave trough initially over WY will move
toward KS/NE later today. A 35-50 kt midlevel jet maximum attendant
to this shortwave will impinge upon parts of the central and
southern High Plains. An outflow-influenced front will likely extend
across parts of southern KS, with moist easterly flow expected north
of this boundary by late afternoon, while strong heating will occur
south of the boundary. Scattered afternoon storm development is
expected within the post-frontal regime from southeast WY/northeast
CO into western NE/KS. Moderate buoyancy and favorable deep-layer
shear will support supercell development, with a threat of large to
very large hail, localized severe gusts, and possibly a tornado.
Widely scattered afternoon storm development will also be possible
in the vicinity of the surface front, from northwest OK into
southeast KS/southwest MO. Moderate to strong buoyancy and
sufficient deep-layer shear will support supercell development with
initial storms along the front, with some clustering possible later
in the convective evolution. Large to very large hail, damaging
winds, and some tornado potential could accompany the strongest
afternoon/evening storms.
Late tonight into early Monday morning, guidance generally suggests
development of one or more upscale growing clusters, evolving from
either diurnal convection, or nocturnal elevated redevelopment.
Swaths of strong to severe gusts could accompany any upscale growth,
though guidance varies considerably regarding the most favorable
corridors late in the forecast period.
..Dean/Squitieri.. 06/21/2026
Read more
SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1259 AM CDT Sun Jun 21 2026
Valid 221200Z - 231200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF
THE CAROLINAS INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC AND FOR THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN
HIGH PLAINS....
...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe storms appear possible across portions of the
Mid-Atlantic Monday afternoon and evening. More isolated severe
weather is expected along a frontal zone that will extend from the
southern Appalachians to the Mid-South and southern Plains.
Additionally, a widely scattered severe weather threat is expected
across the central and northern High Plains Monday afternoon and
evening.
...Synopsis...
Mostly zonal flow is expected across the CONUS on Monday with
multiple embedded shortwave troughs within the flow pattern from the
central Plains to the Mid-Atlantic. A weak surface low is expected
to movefrom the Appalachians to the Mid-Atlantic, associated with
the strongest of the mid-level jet streaks within the broader flow.
An additional lee cyclone is expected to develop along the southern
High Plains during the period with a surface front connecting these
two features.
...Mid-Atlantic...
Moderate instability is forecast to develop east of the Appalachians
from the Carolinas into the Mid-Atlantic on Monday beneath up to 50
knots of mid-level flow. This combination of shear and instability
will support storm organization, including the potential for some
supercells. Neutral to potentially weak height rises may limit storm
coverage across the region, which may preclude a more widespread
severe wind threat. However, given the steep low-level lapse rates
where temperatures are forecast to warm into the mid 90s, damaging
winds will be likely from any storms that develop.
A narrow zone near the warm front will have a greater tornado threat
given the enhanced shear from a compact, but strong, low-level jet
across northern Virginia into the DelMarVa. A 5% tornado contour may
eventually be needed within this zone, but given the relatively
narrow zone of threat and some uncertainty where this front will be
by Monday afternoon/evening, higher probabilities will not be added
at this time.
...Central/Northern High Plains...
Weak lee cyclogenesis is forecast across eastern Wyoming during the
day Monday. This will strengthen upslope flow across the
central/northern Plains. Moderate instability and strengthening
west-northwesterly flow aloft of 40 to 45 knots will result in an
environment that supports widely scattered supercells with the
potential for large to very large hail and perhaps some isolated
wind gusts.
...Northwest Texas and Vicinity...
A more conditional severe weather threat will exist across northwest
Texas and vicinity where there is potential for an outflow boundary
from the morning MCS across Oklahoma to intersect the dryline.
Height rises aloft and strong inhibition should mostly suppress
convection. However, mesoscale convergence at the intersection of
these boundaries could result in one or two supercells capable of
all severe hazards. However, given the conditionality of this
mesoscale threat, higher probabilities have not been added at this
time.
...Mid-Mississippi Valley...
Moderate to strong destabilization is forecast ahead of and south of
a morning MCS that should be in the Oklahoma/Arkansas region on
Monday morning. Reinvigoration of the ongoing MCS or additional
development may result in some isolated damaging wind threat.
However, overall very weak mid-level lapse rates and weaker shear
where the greatest instability is forecast, should keep the threat
mostly marginal/isolated.
..Bentley.. 06/21/2026
Read more
SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0223 AM CDT Sun Jun 21 2026
Valid 231200Z - 241200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF
THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...
...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe storms are expected across the central High Plains
on Tuesday with isolated severe storms possible into the Upper
Midwest. Large hail and damaging wind gusts will be the primary
threats.
...Synopsis...
A low-amplitude ridge across the western CONUS will build slowly
northward as a trough moves south from Alberta into the northern
Plains. As this pattern continues to evolve, mid-level flow will
strengthen across the Rockies and into the Plains. This will result
in strengthening lee cyclogenesis across the southern High Plains.
Farther east, a cold front will move off of the East Coast during
the day Tuesday.
...Central High Plains into the central Plains...
Strengthening upslope flow to the north of the developing lee
cyclone should result in storm development by mid-afternoon across
eastern Colorado on Tuesday. As mid-level flow strengthens to near
50 knots, this strong shear combined with moderate to strong
instability will support supercells capable of large to very large
hail and some severe winds. Expect these supercells to eventually
congeal into one or more clusters as they move east during the
evening, with an increasing severe wind threat.
...Upper Midwest...
A weak surface low associated with the mid-level trough moving south
out of Canada will settle into the Upper Midwest on Tuesday. A cold
front will extend southwestward from this feature with dewpoints
into the low 60s ahead of it. This should produce sufficient
instability for scattered storm development. Some damaging wind
gusts may be possible with the strongest storms.
...Southeast...
A cold front will move off the East Coast during the day on Tuesday.
Most guidance shows the front offshore before sufficient instability
develops for a severe storm threat along the Georgia, South
Carolina, and North Carolina coasts. Therefore, have not added
probabilities at this time. However, if the cold front slows or if
greater instability develops than currently forecast, a Marginal
Risk may be needed in later outlooks.
..Bentley.. 06/21/2026
Read more
Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0311 AM CDT Sun Jun 21 2026
Valid 241200Z - 291200Z
...DISCUSSION...
...D4/Wednesday and D5/Thursday - Central High Plains...
As high pressure builds into the central/northern Plains on
Wednesday and Thursday, upslope flow will remain persistent across
eastern Colorado and eastern Wyoming. Moderate to strong instability
is expected in this area with 40 to 50 knots of west-northwesterly
flow aloft. This should result in a favorable upslope regime capable
of supercells. A relatively narrow unstable corridor should keep the
most favorable severe threat somewhat confined to the higher
elevation prairies where instability and upslope flow will be
maximized.
Friday and Saturday, ridging is forecast to translate east across
the Plains, which may lead to a relative lull in severe weather
threat. However, by Sunday and into early next week, there is a
strong signal for troughing and moderate to strong mid-level flow
across the northern Plains and into the Upper Midwest. Several days
of substantial severe weather are possible during this period.
However, at this time, the timing and amplitude of these features
make it challenging to highlight specific areas. As the evolution of
this mid-level pattern becomes more clear, severe weather
probabilities may be added in later outlooks.
Read more
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0131 AM CDT Sun Jun 21 2026
Valid 211200Z - 221200Z
...Synopsis...
Zonal mid-level flow will prevail over the CONUS today, with
multiple embedded impulses poised to traverse this flow. Across the
Intermountain West, one such mid-level impulse will overspread the
central Rockies, encouraging surface low development along the
southern High Plains. Dry westerly flow will ensue across the desert
Southwest, with 15-20 mph sustained westerly surface winds and 5-15
percent RH overspreading dry fuels from far eastern Arizona into
central New Mexico, warranting the continuation of Elevated
highlights. Dry and windy conditions will also channel within the
Snake River Plain by afternoon peak heating in southern Idaho. Here,
15-20 mph sustained westerly surface winds will coincide with 15
percent RH and dry fuels, with Elevated highlights maintained here
as well.
..Squitieri.. 06/21/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0139 AM CDT Sun Jun 21 2026
Valid 221200Z - 231200Z
...Synopsis...
Similar to Day 1, zonal mid-level flow with embedded impulses will
characterize the upper-air pattern across the CONUS tomorrow
(Monday). Surface troughing will develop across the Interior West by
the afternoon hours, resulting in a broad area of dry and breezy
conditions across the southern Great Basin into the Four Corners
region. 15+ mph sustained westerly surface winds will coincide with
5-15 percent RH atop dry fuels, warranting the introduction of
Elevated highlights. Similarly, Elevated highlights were also
introduced for another afternoon of channeled flow across the Snake
River Plain, where 15+ mph sustained westerly surface winds and 15
percent RH will overspread dry fuels for several hours.
..Squitieri.. 06/21/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
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