RSS Mesoscale Discussions from Storm Prediction Center
No watches are valid as of Sat Jan 24 20:12:02 UTC 2026.
MD 0045 CONCERNING FREEZING RAIN FOR NORTHERN MS TO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS
Mesoscale Discussion 0045
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1217 PM CST Sat Jan 24 2026
Areas affected...northern MS to the southern Appalachians
Concerning...Freezing rain
Valid 241817Z - 242345Z
SUMMARY...Freezing rain mixed with sleet is expected to expand
across parts of the Tennessee Valley to the southern Appalachians
through late afternoon. The most likely corridor for appreciable
accretion appears centered on north-central Mississippi, northwest
Alabama, and southeast Tennessee.
DISCUSSION...A broad swath of mixed winter precip is ongoing from
KY/TN southwest to LA. The initial leading activity has largely
remained as sleet and snow, with greater liquid-equivalent rates in
sleet, freezing rain, and rain over LA. This latter plume is
expected to be the most prolific for freezing rain rates as it
shifts northeast through late afternoon. Liquid-equivalent rates of
.05 to .25 in/hr should remain common. Despite ample low-level
isentropic ascent, guidance is quite insistent on expanding the
above-freezing warm nose north-northeast across northern MS to
eastern TN through 00Z. A 15Z UL-Monroe sounding sampled around 12C
at 900 mb, indicative of a classic freezing rain/mixed sleet
profile. The overall setup suggests that these should become the
primary PTYPEs across central/northern MS through northwest AL to
southeast TN.
..Grams.. 01/24/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...GSP...MRX...FFC...OHX...BMX...HUN...MEG...JAN...
LAT...LON 34209026 35448831 36048675 36338482 36348395 36048318
35708306 35228341 34968374 34838495 34278684 33138962
33659021 34209026
Read more
MD 0044 CONCERNING WINTER MIXED PRECIPITATION FOR PORTIONS OF WEST TEXAS INTO CENTRAL OKLAHOMA
Mesoscale Discussion 0044
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1034 AM CST Sat Jan 24 2026
Areas affected...Portions of West Texas into central Oklahoma
Concerning...Winter mixed precipitation
Valid 241634Z - 242030Z
SUMMARY...An expanding area of mostly sleet will continue northeast
through the afternoon.
DISCUSSION...An area of showery precipitation continues to expand
from West Texas into southwest Oklahoma this morning. The
precipitation coverage is already more expansive than shown by any
12Z guidance and it continues to expand. This area of showers is
mostly sleet thus far, but KTLX CC and the 12Z OUN RAOB would imply
it will become mostly snow as it approaches I-40 across central
Oklahoma.
Sleet accumulation of 0.1 to 0.2 inches per hour and snowfall
accumulation of 0.5 to 1 inch per hour are possible within the
heavier showers/bands from Northwest Texas into central Oklahoma
through mid-afternoon.
Expect this area of precipitation to weaken as it moves farther
northeast during the afternoon. This will likely result in more
scattered precipitation coverage across this region for a few hours
during the late afternoon before precipitation rapidly expands this
evening ahead of the approaching main trough.
..Bentley.. 01/24/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...TSA...FWD...OUN...SJT...LUB...AMA...MAF...
LAT...LON 32490119 32610154 33220201 34030195 34640135 35719819
35709619 35059591 33939704 32969906 32480056 32490119
Read more
SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0942 AM CST Sat Jan 24 2026
Valid 241630Z - 251200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected today or tonight.
...LA/MS/AL Overnight...
The primary surface cold front has pushed off the mid/upper TX Gulf
coast, where scattered thunderstorms are ongoing. As the primary
upper trough approaches later tonight, increasing southerly
low-level winds ahead of the front will transport Gulf moisture
northward into parts of southeast LA and southern MS/AL. This will
result in some destabilization and increase in low-level/deep-layer
vertical shear. Despite a slowly improving environment for strong
convection, the main upper forcing is expected to lag to the west of
this region until after 12z. Therefore, will maintain
less-than-marginal severe probabilities for the overnight period.
..Hart/Bentley.. 01/24/2026
Read more
SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0156 PM CST Sat Jan 24 2026
Valid 242000Z - 251200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected today or tonight.
...20Z Update...
Only minor changes to the thunderstorm forecast were made based on
current observations. Cold air remains in place across the lower
Mississippi Valley this afternoon with ongoing and expected
precipitation reinforcing this airmass through Sunday morning. As
previously mentioned, a slow improvement in the environment is
possible from southeast Louisiana into southern Mississippi and
western Alabama. Given the current observations, it may take longer
to move warm/moist air inland than expected. Confidence in this
occurring before 12Z Sunday remains too low for severe
probabilities. See the previous forecast for additional information.
..Wendt.. 01/24/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0942 AM CST Sat Jan 24 2026/
...LA/MS/AL Overnight...
The primary surface cold front has pushed off the mid/upper TX Gulf
coast, where scattered thunderstorms are ongoing. As the primary
upper trough approaches later tonight, increasing southerly
low-level winds ahead of the front will transport Gulf moisture
northward into parts of southeast LA and southern MS/AL. This will
result in some destabilization and increase in low-level/deep-layer
vertical shear. Despite a slowly improving environment for strong
convection, the main upper forcing is expected to lag to the west of
this region until after 12z. Therefore, will maintain
less-than-marginal severe probabilities for the overnight period.
Read more
SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1120 AM CST Sat Jan 24 2026
Valid 251200Z - 261200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF FAR
SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI INTO SOUTHERN ALABAMA...SOUTHERN GEORGIA...AND
THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE...
...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of the eastern Gulf
Coast states Sunday morning and afternoon. Damaging gusts and a few
tornadoes are the main concerns.
...Synopsis...
A surface low will traverse the Gulf Coast states tomorrow (Sunday)
morning and early afternoon, before ejecting northeast toward the
Mid Atlantic as a mid-level trough deepens east of the MS River. A
constrained warm sector will become established ahead of a
progressive surface cold front and south of a warm front over
southeast MS into southern AL/GA during the morning/early afternoon
hours. Strong flow aloft will overspread this warm sector, resulting
in enough overlapping buoyancy and vertical wind shear to support a
severe threat along the Gulf Coast.
...Southeast Gulf Coast States...
Thunderstorms should be ongoing at the start of the period (12Z
Sunday) across parts of LA/MS, and should begin focusing into a
linear band along/immediately ahead of a cold front with the
development of the surface low. A warm front will be positioned
somewhere over the southern third of AL/MS Sunday morning,
delineating the warm sector to the south, characterized by mid to
upper 60s F surface temperatures and mid 60s F dewpoints.
Tropospheric lapse rates should be meager though (i.e. 5.5-6 C/km),
resulting in thin buoyancy profiles. However, nearly 100 kt
west-southwesterly 500 mb flow atop a 60+ kt southwesterly low-level
jet overspreading the warm front (with locally backed winds) will
support large, elongated hodographs with at least modest low-level
curvature. As such, a high shear/low-CAPE parameter space will
precede an intensifying QLCS through Sunday morning/early afternoon
across southeast MS into southern AL and GA, where and when the
severe threat is expected to be greatest.
While strong linear forcing will support a QLCS, minimal MLCINH
ahead of the front suggests that a couple of low-topped supercells
cannot be ruled out. While MLCAPE may struggle to exceed 500 J/kg
over most locales, widespread 60+ kts of effective bulk shear and
400+ m2/s2 0-3 km SRH should support some threat for damaging gusts
and at least a few tornadoes. The best chance for tornadoes will be
with storms interacting with the warm front, where low-level
hodograph curvature will be maximized. If a sustained supercell
manages to develop, a strong tornado cannot be ruled out as the
storm crosses the warm front. Later Sunday afternoon, the surface
low and forcing for ascent will drift away from the warm sector.
With a wedge front also expected to stall warm sector recovery from
central GA north/northeastward, the severe threat should wane
through the day.
..Squitieri.. 01/24/2026
Read more
SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1258 PM CST Sat Jan 24 2026
Valid 261200Z - 271200Z
...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms appear unlikely Monday.
...Synopsis...
A mid-level trough will eject into the Atlantic on Monday, resulting
in widespread surface high pressure and an accompanying polar
airmass to overspread the CONUS, diminishing thunderstorm potential.
A surface cold front will sweep across the central and southern FL
Peninsula Monday morning and afternoon. While a thunderstorm or two
cannot be ruled, deep-layer ascent will remain primarily north of
the state, which will limit thunderstorm development, warranting the
withholding of thunderstorm probabilities this outlook.
..Squitieri.. 01/24/2026
Read more
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1247 PM CST Sat Jan 24 2026
Valid 251200Z - 261200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
Fire weather concerns are expected to remain low tomorrow (Day
2/Sunday) due to extremely cold temperatures and recent wetting
precipitation across much of the CONUS. Please see the previous
discussion below for additional information regarding tomorrow's
fire weather forecast.
..Elliott.. 01/24/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1145 PM CST Fri Jan 23 2026/
...Synopsis...
The pattern will continue to favor a broad trough across the Central
US with an arctic air mass across much of the central/eastern CONUS.
Widespread precipitation will continue from the central US into the
southeast and eastern US. The extremely cold temperatures, snow
pack, and recent wetting precipitation will keep fire concerns low
for D2/Sunday.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0149 PM CST Sat Jan 24 2026
Valid 261200Z - 011200Z
Persistent mid/upper-level troughing is expected to remain over the
eastern 2/3 of the CONUS through the extended forecast, which will
continue to reinforce below average temperatures along/east of the
Rockies. Meanwhile, mid/upper-level ridging is forecast to return to
the Southwest and Great Basin by Day 4/Tuesday before a series of
Pacific troughs come onshore mid-to-late next week and into the
weekend. Some wetting rainfall may accompany the troughs -
especially across portions of the Pacific NW into northern
California.
Overall, Critical fire weather concerns are forecast to remain low
across much of the CONUS through at least Day 8/Saturday. The one
exception might be across portions of the Florida Peninsula, where
little antecedent precipitation is forecast along/ahead of a mostly
dry cold front that is expected to move through the area Day
3/Monday. A dry and breezy post-frontal regime is forecast to remain
over the area through much of the week, which may promote periodic
Elevated to locally Critical fire weather conditions, especially as
fuels remain receptive owing to ongoing drought conditions. At this
time, fire weather conditions appear too brief/spotty to introduce a
40% Critical fire weather probability.
..Elliott.. 01/24/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
|
