RSS Mesoscale Discussions from Storm Prediction Center
WW 233 SEVERE TSTM TX 192310Z - 200600Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 233
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
610 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of
Central Texas
* Effective this Tuesday night and Wednesday morning from 610 PM
until 100 AM CDT.
* Primary threats include...
Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely
Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2
inches in diameter possible
SUMMARY...Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible for the
remainder of this afternoon through this evening across central
Texas. The warm and moist airmass in place is resulting in strong
buoyancy, which could in turn support robust updrafts capable of
both large hail and damaging gusts.
The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 50
statute miles north and south of a line from 60 miles west southwest
of Temple TX to 25 miles north northeast of College Station TX. For
a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline
update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU3).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.
&&
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 231...WW 232...
AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A
few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector
24020.
...Mosier
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WW 232 SEVERE TSTM TX 192055Z - 200400Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 232
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
355 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of
West Central Texas
* Effective this Tuesday afternoon and evening from 355 PM until
1100 PM CDT.
* Primary threats include...
Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2.5
inches in diameter likely
Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely
SUMMARY...Thunderstorms will become more numerous through the late
afternoon, with isolated supercells possible. Large hail will be
the main concern early, with an increasing risk of damaging winds
with time.
The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 50
statute miles north and south of a line from 25 miles north
northwest of Dryden TX to 65 miles east northeast of Junction TX.
For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch
outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU2).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.
&&
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 230...WW 231...
AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
2.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A
few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector
27025.
...Hart
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WW 0233 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 233
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 WNW AUS
TO 30 NW AUS TO 25 WSW TPL TO 15 E TPL TO 25 SE ACT TO 50 NW UTS.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0798
..JEWELL..05/20/26
ATTN...WFO...EWX...FWD...HGX...
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 233
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
TXC021-027-031-041-051-055-091-145-187-209-259-287-331-395-453-
477-491-200340-
TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BASTROP BELL BLANCO
BRAZOS BURLESON CALDWELL
COMAL FALLS GUADALUPE
HAYS KENDALL LEE
MILAM ROBERTSON TRAVIS
WASHINGTON WILLIAMSON
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
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WW 0232 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 232
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 WNW DRT
TO 65 N DRT TO 25 NNE JCT TO 50 WSW TPL.
..JEWELL..05/20/26
ATTN...WFO...SJT...EWX...MAF...
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 232
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
TXC137-171-265-267-299-319-327-385-413-435-465-200340-
TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
EDWARDS GILLESPIE KERR
KIMBLE LLANO MASON
MENARD REAL SCHLEICHER
SUTTON VAL VERDE
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
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WW 0231 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 231
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 W BMG TO
40 WSW DAY TO 40 NE DAY.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0797
..SQUITIERI..05/19/26
ATTN...WFO...IND...ILN...
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 231
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
INC005-013-027-029-031-047-055-071-079-093-101-105-137-200140-
IN
. INDIANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BARTHOLOMEW BROWN DAVIESS
DEARBORN DECATUR FRANKLIN
GREENE JACKSON JENNINGS
LAWRENCE MARTIN MONROE
RIPLEY
OHC017-021-023-057-061-109-113-135-159-165-200140-
OH
. OHIO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BUTLER CHAMPAIGN CLARK
GREENE HAMILTON MIAMI
MONTGOMERY PREBLE UNION
WARREN
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MD 0798 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 232...233... FOR CENTRAL TO SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS
Mesoscale Discussion 0798
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0833 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026
Areas affected...central to south-central Texas
Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 232...233...
Valid 200133Z - 200400Z
The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 232, 233
continues.
SUMMARY...A storm complex may consolidate and shift south/southeast
across south-central Texas, with continued threat of locally
damaging winds and marginal hail.
DISCUSSION...Storms have consolidated into a SW-NE oriented line
roughly from Gillespie into Bell/Falls Counties, with recent
propagation to the southeast. Given the robust moisture and
instability in place, along with southeasterly low-level winds into
the complex, it appears likely these storms will maintain intensity
for a few more hours as they move across the Austin area, and
possibly close to San Antonio later this evening. Gusts at or above
50 mph will be possible, along with hail at or above 1.00" diameter.
Farther west, other strong cells are noted along the same aggregate
outflow boundary, from Val Verde into Edwards Counties. The 00Z DRT
sounding does indicate capping above 850 mb, though not particularly
strong, and an MCS appears less likely than farther east.
..Jewell.. 05/20/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...HGX...FWD...EWX...SJT...
LAT...LON 30270086 30349931 30559857 30829795 30999733 30659691
30099633 29689678 29359737 29229841 29610065 29990100
30270086
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN
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SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0743 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026
Valid 200100Z - 201200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND FROM THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms will be possible this
evening from the southern Plains northeastward into mid Mississippi
Valley and Lower Great Lakes. A greater threat for large hail will
exist across parts of west-central Texas.
...Southern Plains...
Southwest flow aloft is evident on water vapor imagery over the
southern Plains. At the surface, an east-to-west oriented cold front
is located across west and central Texas. Several strong
thunderstorms are ongoing along the front. To the south of the
front, surface dewpoints near 70 F are contributing to strong
instability over the southern third of Texas, with the RAP showing
MLCAPE in the 3000 to 4500 J/kg range. In addition, the RAP has
steep mid-level lapse rates and moderate deep-layer shear analyzed
across much of central and south Texas. This will be favorable for
organized storms this evening capable of hail and severe wind gusts.
Large hail will be most likely with any supercell that can develop.
The severe threat is expected to move southward into south-central
Texas by late evening. MCS development appears to be underway. As
the convective coverage continues to increase, a transition to
severe wind gusts as the primary threat is expected...see MCD 795.
...Mid Mississippi and Ohio Valleys/Lower Great Lakes...
At mid-levels, a shortwave trough is evident on water vapor imagery
over the Ohio Valley. A cold front is located from southern Indiana
northeastward across central Ohio into the lower Great Lakes. A line
of strong thunderstorms is ongoing near the front. Ahead of the
front, surface dewpoints are in the 60s F which is enough for
sufficient instability to support severe storm development. The RAP
suggests that 0-3 km level lapse rates are still in the 7 to 7.5
C/km ahead of the front from Ohio into northwest Pennsylvania. This
could support isolated damaging wind gusts with the stronger cells
embedded in the line...see MCD 797.
..Broyles.. 05/20/2026
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