RSS Mesoscale Discussions from Storm Prediction Center
WW 99 TORNADO KS NE 112130Z - 120400Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Tornado Watch Number 99
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
430 PM CDT Sat Apr 11 2026
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Tornado Watch for portions of
Far northern Kansas
South central and southeast Nebraska
* Effective this Saturday afternoon and evening from 430 PM until
1100 PM CDT.
* Primary threats include...
A couple tornadoes possible
Isolated damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible
Isolated large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible
SUMMARY...Isolated supercells will be possible near a warm front
developing northward from northern Kansas into southern Nebraska,
where a couple of tornadoes will be possible with storms that stay
along the warm front. Otherwise, the strongest storms could produce
large hail near 1.5 inches in diameter, along with 60-70 mph outflow
gusts as additional convection spreads east-northeastward from
northwest Kansas into southern Nebraska.
The tornado watch area is approximately along and 45 statute miles
north and south of a line from 45 miles southwest of Kearney NE to
15 miles east southeast of Beatrice NE. For a complete depiction of
the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS
WOU9).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for
tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch
area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for
threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements
and possible warnings.
&&
AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail
surface and aloft to 1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind
gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean
storm motion vector 23020.
...Thompson
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WW 0099 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 99
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..DEAN..04/11/26
ATTN...WFO...GID...TOP...OAX...
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 99
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
KSC089-147-157-183-201-112340-
KS
. KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
JEWELL PHILLIPS REPUBLIC
SMITH WASHINGTON
NEC001-019-035-059-061-067-079-081-083-095-099-129-137-151-169-
181-185-112340-
NE
. NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ADAMS BUFFALO CLAY
FILLMORE FRANKLIN GAGE
HALL HAMILTON HARLAN
JEFFERSON KEARNEY NUCKOLLS
PHELPS SALINE THAYER
WEBSTER YORK
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
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MD 0383 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR PARTS OF SOUTH-CENTRAL KS
Mesoscale Discussion 0383
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0532 PM CDT Sat Apr 11 2026
Areas affected...Parts of south-central KS
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible
Valid 112232Z - 120000Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent
SUMMARY...A threat for severe hail/wind and possibly a tornado may
spread eastward. The longevity of the threat is uncertain.
DISCUSSION...An HP supercell has recently developed to the
west-northwest of Wichita, within a region of ascent that may have
been related to a minor MCV that earlier moved out of the southern
High Plains. The KICT VWP depicts gradually enlarging low-level
hodographs, with sufficient deep-layer shear for organized
convection. Downstream MLCINH is minimal, which may help this
supercell cluster to persist into early evening, though in the
absence of stronger synoptic-scale ascent, storm-scale dynamics and
the influence of cell mergers may determine the longevity of this
cluster and the attendant severe threat.
While midlevel lapse rates are not particularly steep (as observed
in the 17Z LMN and 18Z DDC soundings), MLCAPE of around 1500 J/kg
will support large-hail potential for as long as the supercell
structure persists. Severe RFD and outflow gusts will also continue
to be possible. Low-level shear/SRH are also sufficient for some
tornado threat, though the ongoing HP structure and extensive
outflow will tend to limit tornado potential to some extent.
Given the isolated nature and uncertain duration of the ongoing
threat, the need for watch issuance remains uncertain. However, in
the short term, a localized but potentially substantial severe
threat may spread across south-central KS, near and north of
Wichita.
..Dean/Thompson.. 04/11/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...ICT...
LAT...LON 37989805 38129728 38099653 37639645 37559666 37489708
37519746 37589785 37989805
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN
Read more
SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0300 PM CDT Sat Apr 11 2026
Valid 112000Z - 121200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF
NORTH-CENTRAL KANSAS AND SOUTHEASTERN NEBRASKA...
...SUMMARY...
Scattered thunderstorms producing hail and strong wind gusts are
possible across portions of the southern High Plains and into parts
of Kansas and Nebraska this afternoon and evening. More isolated
strong to severe thunderstorms are expected across parts of the
central Rockies, upper Mississippi Valley, and portions of the
California coast.
...20z Update KS/NE...
An MCV evident in visible imagery over southwest/central KS is
forecast to shift northeastward this afternoon toward a differential
heating zone associated with a modifying remnant outflow boundary
across northern KS and southern NE. Ample heating south of this zone
has warmed temperatures ~5-7 degree above model guidance, with
observation trends suggestive of locally stronger buoyancy and
vertical shear on modified 12 and 18z RAOBs (1500-2000 J/kg of
MLCAPE). While overall mid-level flow is modest, some enhancement in
the low and mid-levels ahead of the MCV is also evident in area
VADs, bolstering bulk shear to 30-35 kt. Backed low-level winds
along the retreating boundary are also aiding in maintaining sizable
clockwise curved low-level hodographs. This could support the
development of small supercell structures with potential to produce
tornadoes, particularly near and just north of the retreating
outflow boundary, and perhaps in close proximity to the MCV.
Otherwise, some hail and localized strong wind gusts are possible
with any more robust storms able to develop and maintain themselves
into this evening. Deep-layer shear is progged to increase after
dark, as a 40-50 kt low-level jet develops, supporting an increase
in storm coverage along and north of the boundary tonight. Hail and
damaging winds would be the primary threats. Given the local
increase in severe potential, a small zone ahead of the MCV and
along the boundary has been upgraded to a level 2/5 Slight Risk.
...TX and NM...
Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms remain likely tonight
across West TX, the Rio Grand Valley and southeastern NM.
Eventually, one ore more lines or clusters may emerge and spread
east/northeast into central TX/west-central OK. A risk for damaging
gusts or a tornado remain possible with these storms into early
Sunday morning. High-res guidance suggests these storms may maintain
intensity slightly farther east. The 5% wind are was moved eastward
to account for the overnight/early morning risk for a few damaging
gusts.
Elsewhere, severe storms remain possible over parts of the Rockies
and West Coast. The outlook remains largely unchanged. See the prior
discussion for additional information.
..Lyons.. 04/11/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1205 PM CDT Sat Apr 11 2026/
...Synopsis...
Recent satellite imagery reveals two shortwave troughs, one moving
through the Great Basin and the other moving into central Mexico,
progressing through the southwesterly flow aloft between the
subtropical ridging that extends through the Southeast states and a
deep upper low off the central West Coast. Steep mid-level lapse
rates precede the northern shortwave (i.e. from the northern/central
Rockies northeastward) and low-level moisture continues to advect
northward across the southern and central Plains. Both of these
factors will increase buoyancy ahead of these two shortwaves, which
are expected to become increasingly phased as they progress
northeastward throughout the day. This evolution will support a
large area of thunderstorms from the northern Rockies through the
southern Plains this afternoon/evening. Environmental conditions
support strong to isolated severe thunderstorms across these areas,
with a relatively higher chance of severe from the southern High
Plains into central TX and along the eastern NE/KS border vicinity.
Additionally, the West Coast upper low is forecast to progress
east-southeastward into southern OR and northern/central CA this
evening and overnight, supporting the potential for thunderstorms, a
few of which could be strong.
...Southern High Plains into Central Texas...
Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are expected to develop this
afternoon across the southern High Plains as a shortwave trough
lifts out of central Mexico and interacts with the moist and
modestly buoyant airmass in places over the region. A few initially
discrete storms are possible, and adequate deep-layer wind shear
around 35 kt could result in a few instances of severe hail.
However, weak capping and strong ascent should promote increasing
thunderstorm coverage, resulting in a transition to a more clustered
storm mode. Eventual evolution into one or more line segments is
possible, particularly over southwest TX as low-level flow
nocturnally strengthens and low-level moisture increases. As this
transition occurs, damaging gust potential will become the
predominant hazard. The strengthening low-level flow will also
lengthen low-level hodograph, supporting the potential for an
embedded circulation or two, particularly along the southern extent
of whatever line develops.
...Central Plains into the Upper Mississippi Valley...
Recent surface analysis places a warm front across central KS. This
warm front is forecast to progress northward throughout the day amid
persistent southerly flow and resulting moderate/strong low-level
moisture advection. Given the ongoing cloud cover across the region,
as well as the showers and thunderstorms over northwest MO, there is
some uncertainty to how this surface boundary will evolve. General
expectation is for this front to extend from the central NE vicinity
into north-central MO by this evening.
Large, looping low-level hodographs are anticipated in the vicinity
of this warm front. These profiles, along with dewpoints in the
low/mid 60s and modestly steep mid-level lapse rates, result in an
environment that is conditionally favorable for supercells. However,
some capping will likely linger across the region and large-scale
forcing will be negligible, casting doubt to whether convective
initiation will be realized. This uncertainty is matched by the CAM
guidance, none of which establishes meaningful convection during the
afternoon and evening. All that to say, if an updraft does mature in
this environment, all severe hazards are possible, including a
tornado.
More certain (but less intense) thunderstorm potential is
anticipated as low-level warm air advection becomes increasingly
focused from the central Plains into the upper Mississippi Valley
this evening and overnight. Moderate elevated buoyancy and
deep-layer shear support the potential for a few stronger updrafts
capable of hail as thunderstorms expand northeastward from IA into
the Upper Midwest.
...Northern/Central Rockies...
Scattered thunderstorm development is anticipated across the
northern and central Rockies, ahead of a shortwave trough
progressing northeastward into the region. Deep boundary-layer
mixing ahead of this system coupled with steep mid-level lapse rates
and moderate deep-layer vertical shear will result in an environment
that supports the potential for strong to severe gusts across much
of the region.
...Northern/Central California Coast...
A frontal band, associated with an upper low moving over the
northern California coast tonight, is expected to progress
southeastward through the central CA coastal vicinity this evening.
Thermodynamic profiles appear marginally supportive of isolated
convection deep enough to produce lightning. Winds within the lowest
1-2 km AGL should increase to around 40 kt as the wave moves
onshore, which will contribute to the potential for convective
downdrafts to produce a few locally damaging wind gusts.
Read more
SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0229 PM CDT Sat Apr 11 2026
Valid 131200Z - 141200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...AND ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS...
...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are possible across the Upper Mississippi
Valley and Great Lakes region, and across portions of the southern
Plains on Monday.
...Synopsis...
The pattern on D3/Monday will be characterized by continued
mid-level troughing across the western US, shifting east into the
Great Basin. Strong west to southwesterly flow will continue across
the Rockies into the central Plains and Upper Midwest. A surface low
will shift across SD/NE into the Upper Midwest, with attendant
northward lifting warm front and eventual southward moving cold
front. These features will be the focus of thunderstorm activity
late Monday afternoon across MN/IA/WI will additional development
likely into upper MI through the late evening.
Across the southern/central Plains, a surface dryline will extend
from central KS into western OK/southwest TX. Strong daytime heating
will occur along and ahead of the dryline with an increase in the
low-level jet by the late afternoon/evening and potential for
isolated to scattered thunderstorm development.
...Upper Midwest...
Across the Upper Midwest, southerly flow will usher low to mid 60s
dew points northwards into portions of IA/WI/MN as a surface low
shifts eastward. The exact northern extent of this moisture remains
uncertain, however it does appear that thunderstorms will develop
near the low and along or north of the effective warm front across
some portion of IA/MN border, perhaps as far west as southeastern
SD/northern NE. Steep midlevel lapse rates and elongated hodographs
suggest large to very large hail (some 2-2.5+ inch in diameter) will
be possible both within the warm sector and with any elevated storms
on the cool side of the boundary. Some consideration was given to
introduction a 30% area, primarily concerning the hail risk, across
the IA/MN border. There still remains uncertainty in guidance of the
coverage of storms in the open warm sector. Through time, storms may
consolidate with a shift to damaging wind potential. For now, opted
to expand the Marginal and Slight Risks further west into the
Dakotas but maintain 15% probabilities.
...Central/Southern Plains...
A more conditional threat for thunderstorms will be possible across
the dryline in the central/southern Plains. Through the day, the
environment looks to remain largely capped. Beneath this, strong
daytime heating will yield moderate to strong CAPE within a plume of
steep low to mid-level lapse rates. Into the late afternoon/evening,
the low-level jet will increase and this may support development of
isolated thunderstorm activity along and ahead of the dryline.
Should this occur, the environment will favor supercells capable of
large to very large hail, damaging wind, and a couple of tornadoes.
..Thornton.. 04/11/2026
Read more
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0246 PM CDT Sat Apr 11 2026
Valid 121200Z - 131200Z
...Southwest and Four Corners...
Increasing southwest flow aloft on the southern and southeastern
periphery of a closed upper-level low over northern CA will
overspread the Desert Southwest and Four Corners Sunday. Dry and
well-mixed boundary layer conditions will support southwest surface
winds of 15-20 mph amid 15-20% afternoon relative humidity across
much of eastern UT the Four Corners and into the lowland deserts of
southeastern AZ and southwestern NM. Brief critical fire weather
conditions including southwest winds of 20 mph with higher gusts and
RH of around 10% are possible across southeastern AZ where fuels are
still marginally receptive.
...Central High Plains...
Increasing southwesterly flow aloft over the Colorado Plateau, lee
surface troughing across the central High Plains and minimal
rainfall from convection through tonight will support a favorable
dry, downslope regime for Sunday across the high plains of CO and
WY. Elevated highlights were extended westward along the CO Front
Range where locally critical but brief fire weather conditions
including southwest winds of around 20 mph and RH reductions to 10%
are possible in favored terrain gaps. Farther north, a departing
surface low across the Upper Midwest will enhance westerly winds
across southwestern SD and western NE where west winds of 10-20 mph,
RH falling to between 15-20% and dry fuels should align resulting in
an elevated fire weather threat.
...Southern High Plains...
Increasing westerly flow aloft and surface lee troughing across the
Southern High Plains should support dry and breezy conditions across
much of eastern NM Sunday. However, some rainfall is expected across
NM tonight, which could mitigate fire weather concerns for the
D2/Sunday period. However, an extension of elevated highlights may
be warranted in subsequent forecast updates if rainfall extent and
duration is minimal.
...Ohio River Valley/Middle Mississippi Valley...
Southerly to southwesterly winds will increase Sunday across the OH
River and middle MS River Valleys as surface high pressure slides
eastward off the Mid Atlantic Coast. The dry return flow pattern
should yield south/southwest winds of 10-15 mph coupled with a dry
boundary layer supportive of minimum relative humidity of 25-35% by
mid-afternoon. Exceptionally dry fuels with ERC values in the 95th
to 99th percentiles amid ongoing drought combined with the dry and
breezy conditions will promote an elevated fire weather threat for
much of the OH River Valley. Latest model guidance warrants an
expansion of Elevated highlights into the middle MS River Valley and
northern MS/AL area.
..Williams.. 04/11/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0139 AM CDT Sat Apr 11 2026/
...Synopsis...
A mid-level closed low is forecast to progress from the northern
California coast into the Intermountain West, with broad
west-southwesterly flow overspreading the Four Corners into the
Great Plains on Sunday. Widespread dry and breezy conditions are
expected, resulting in several areas of Elevated fire-weather
highlights.
...Four Corners/Central High Plains...
While represented by separate Elevated highlights, much of the area
from southern Arizona/New Mexico into eastern Colorado/Wyoming and
portions of western/central Nebraska and southern South Dakota will
experience widespread dry and breezy conditions. Though fuels across
portions of Arizona and New Mexico are more marginally receptive to
ignition and spread, winds of 15-20 MPH and relative humidity as low
as 10% will support at least Elevated wildfire concerns. Further
east into the Central High Plains, fuels are largely at or exceeding
the 98th annual ERC percentiles with winds forecast at 15-20 MPH and
relative humidity at 10-15%. Locally Critical conditions may occur
across areas just east of the Front Range of the Rockies, where
topography results in an enhancement of the surface winds, or
perhaps where a stronger downslope component of the winds develop.
However, uncertainty in the duration and magnitude of Critical winds
precludes highlights at this time. While meteorological conditions
will reach Elevated status in the gap between these areas, recent
wetting rainfall and less than receptive fuels will lessen the
overall fire-weather concerns between the highlights.
...Ohio River Valley...
While forecast relative humidity values are more variable, ranging
from 25-35%, much of the lower Ohio River Valley is experiencing
widespread moderate to severe drought. Fuels at or exceeding the
98th annual percentile for ERCs and southerly surface winds around
15 MPH will support Elevated fire-weather concerns amidst deeply
mixed and dry boundary layer profiles. While instances of light to
moderate precipitation may occur the prior afternoon/evening, this
will do little to alleviate the overall fire-weather concerns.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0445 PM CDT Sat Apr 11 2026
Valid 131200Z - 191200Z
...Synopsis...
An active upper-level troughing pattern is expected across much of
the western and central CONUS next week bringing increasing
opportunities for precipitation to portions of the Intermountain
West, the Great Plains, Midwest and Northeast. Largely dry
conditions will continue across the Southeast under persistent
ridging aloft, but light winds should limit a broader fire weather
threat across the region where drought continues to expand. A fire
weather threat will likely be sustained this through at least Day
5/Wednesday across sections of the Southwest and central/southern
High Plains where rainfall is minimized and dry and breezy
conditions under enhanced southwest flow aloft continues.
...Day 3/Monday...
...Central/Southern Plains and Southwest...
Broad southwest flow ahead of an eastward advancing upper-level
trough across the Great Basin will overspread much of Southwest and
central U.S. on Day 3/Monday. Farther east, an evolving surface low
across SD/NE with enhanced southwest flow aloft will support dry and
breezy conditions amid a well-mixed, dry boundary layer across much
of the central and southern High Plains. Minimal preceding rainfall
and remaining receptive fuels should support an enhanced fire
weather threat across the region. Latest model guidance has shifted
a 500 mb jet max slightly southward over northeastern NM into the
TX/OK Panhandles, with critical fire weather conditions more likely
to develop across this region. As such, the 70% critical area has
been modified based on this updated model guidance.
...Mid-Atlantic...
A dry return flow pattern emerges early next week across the
Mid-Atlantic as a surface low translates northeastward into Ontario.
In response, increased pressure gradients should allow for
increasing south/southwest winds amid relative humidity as low as
20% across portions of NC and VA. 40% critical probabilities have
been introduced amid very dry fuels.
...Day 4-5/Tuesday-Wednesday...
...Central and Southern Plains...
A mid-level jet enters the Southern Plains Day 4/Tuesday in
association with a progressive trough across the West. Downslope
enhanced west/southwest winds behind a dry line should bring at
least elevated fire weather concerns to much of the southern and
central Plains by Tuesday afternoon. Some uncertainty remains in
expected extent and magnitude of rainfall through tonight across the
Southern Plains, with a potential introduction of 70% critical
probabilities possible in future forecast updates if significant
rainfall fails to materialize. The dry, downslope regime continues
into Day 5/Wednesday with fire weather concerns more focused across
southeastern NM into West TX on the tail of the departing mid-level
jet. 40% critical probabilities have been added for portions of
southeastern NM and West TX for this expected fire weather threat.
..Williams.. 04/11/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
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