RSS Mesoscale Discussions from Storm Prediction Center
WW 245 SEVERE TSTM TX CW 270110Z - 271100Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 245
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
810 PM CDT Tue May 26 2026
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of
South Texas
Coastal Waters
* Effective this Tuesday night and Wednesday morning from 810 PM
until 600 AM CDT.
* Primary threats include...
Scattered damaging winds and isolated significant gusts to 75
mph possible
Isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter possible
A tornado or two possible
SUMMARY...One cluster of storms will have the potential to produce
damaging gusts of 60-75 mph, large hail of 1-2 inches in diameter
and a tornado or two across areas near and southeast of San Antonio
for the next few hours. Additional storms will likely form farther
to the southwest and move across South Texas during the
overnight/early morning hours, with continued potential for wind
damage and isolated large hail.
The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 85
statute miles east and west of a line from 70 miles northeast of
Cotulla TX to 75 miles south southwest of Alice TX. For a complete
depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update
(WOUS64 KWNS WOU5).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.
&&
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 244...
AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 65 knots. A
few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 550. Mean storm motion vector
28025.
...Thompson
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WW 0245 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 245
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 NW LRD TO
25 SW COT TO 30 NE COT TO 25 E HDO TO 35 NNE HDO.
..CHALMERS..05/27/26
ATTN...WFO...CRP...EWX...BRO...
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 245
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
TXC007-013-025-029-047-057-123-131-175-177-187-247-249-255-261-
273-283-285-297-311-355-391-409-427-469-479-493-505-270340-
TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ARANSAS ATASCOSA BEE
BEXAR BROOKS CALHOUN
DEWITT DUVAL GOLIAD
GONZALES GUADALUPE JIM HOGG
JIM WELLS KARNES KENEDY
KLEBERG LA SALLE LAVACA
LIVE OAK MCMULLEN NUECES
REFUGIO SAN PATRICIO STARR
VICTORIA WEBB WILSON
ZAPATA
GMZ135-155-231-232-236-237-250-255-270340-
CW
. ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE
LAGUNA MADRE FROM 5 NM NORTH OF PORT MANSFIELD TO BAFFIN BAY TX
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WW 0244 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 244
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 75 W COT TO
55 WNW COT TO 45 WNW HDO TO 60 W AUS TO 55 WSW TPL.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0869
..CHALMERS..05/27/26
ATTN...WFO...EWX...SJT...
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 244
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
TXC013-019-127-163-171-265-299-325-463-507-270240-
TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ATASCOSA BANDERA DIMMIT
FRIO GILLESPIE KERR
LLANO MEDINA UVALDE
ZAVALA
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
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MD 0870 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 245... FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS
Mesoscale Discussion 0870
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1017 PM CDT Tue May 26 2026
Areas affected...portions of south-central Texas
Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 245...
Valid 270317Z - 270445Z
The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 245
continues.
SUMMARY...The threat for severe wind gusts (and potentially a
significant gust or two), isolated large hail, and perhaps a tornado
or two continues across WW245.
DISCUSSION...A well-defined MCS remains ongoing across portions of
south-central Texas as of 0300 UTC, with several reports of
severe/damaging wind gusts noted over the past 1-2 hours, including
measured 63 and 79 mph wind gusts. Brief embedded circulations have
also been observed via latest EWX radar imagery in the San Antonio
metro vicinity within the past 15-30 minutes. The downstream
environment remains moderately unstable, with 1500-2500 J/kg MLCAPE.
Coupled with effective shear of 30-35 kts, continued maintenance of
this system and potential for severe wind gusts (and potentially a
significant gust or two) appears likely for at least another 1-2
hours. The EWX VAD also sampled approximately 100 m2/s2 0-500 m SRH
just ahead of the convective line, which will promote the potential
for a brief embedded tornado or two.
Latest high-res guidance continues to suggest that a cluster of weak
thunderstorms currently noted in Coahuila, Mexico, will evolve
eastward and potentially intensify over the next few hours, before
advancing into South Texas, perhaps as another cluster/linear MCS.
This would bring additional potential for severe wind gusts,
isolated large hail, and perhaps a brief tornado or two to portions
of WW245.
..Chalmers.. 05/27/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...HGX...CRP...EWX...
LAT...LON 29269861 29429872 29689885 29799870 29889814 29869746
29669696 29329674 28919676 28469691 27939752 27829827
27869909 28089927 28349917 28689880 28969860 29119855
29269861
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN
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SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0759 PM CDT Tue May 26 2026
Valid 270100Z - 271200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
SOUTH TEXAS...
...SUMMARY...
Scattered thunderstorms with large hail and severe wind gusts will
be possible this evening in parts of west Texas into south-central
and southeast Texas. Isolated severe storms with strong wind gusts
and hail will also be possible in parts of the upper Mississippi
Valley and northwestern U.S.
...Texas...
A mid-level shortwave trough is evident on water vapor imagery over
west and southwest Texas. Ahead of the trough, a broken line of
strong to severe storms is ongoing from the Texas Hill Country
southwestward to near the Rio Grande River. Moderate to strong
instability is analyzed by the RAP towards the south end of this
line, where MLCAPE is in the 2000 to 3000 J/kg range. As the line
moves eastward into south-central Texas this evening, the more
organized embedded storms may have supercell characteristics and be
capable of large to very large hail. Severe wind gusts will also be
possible along the leading edge of the more intense line segments.
Further north into parts of the Texas Hill Country, instability is
considerably less which will temper the severe potential somewhat.
These storms may be able to produce isolated severe gusts and hail.
This entire line will eventually move eastward across the Texas
Coastal Plain by late in the period, where an a few strong wind
gusts will be possible...see MCD 868.
...Upper Mississippi Valley...
At the surface, a quasi-stationary front is located from
north-central Minnesota east-southeastward into east-central
Wisconsin. Scattered thunderstorms are ongoing near the front. An
axis of instability is analyzed immediately south of the front, with
another pocket of instability located in southern Minnesota and
northern Iowa. The instability along with steep low-level lapse
rates may be enough for an isolated potential for severe wind gusts
early this evening. Hail will also be possible.
...Northern Rockies...
A mid-level low is currently over northern California with
south-southeasterly mid-level flow located over the northwestern
U.S. Within this flow, an axis of instability is analyzed by the RAP
across western Montana, where scattered thunderstorms are ongoing.
In addition to the instability, forecast soundings in western
Montana show moderate deep-layer shear and steep mid-level lapse
rates. This should be enough for isolated severe wind gusts early
this evening. Hail will also be possible, mainly in northwest
Montana where instability is a bit stronger.
..Broyles.. 05/27/2026
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