RSS Mesoscale Discussions from Storm Prediction Center
WW 373 SEVERE TSTM AR LA OK TX 220850Z - 221600Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 373
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
350 AM CDT Mon Jun 22 2026
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of
Western and Central Arkansas
Northern Louisiana
Eastern Oklahoma
North-Central and Northeast Texas
* Effective this Monday morning from 350 AM until 1100 AM CDT.
* Primary threats include...
Scattered damaging winds likely with isolated significant gusts
to 75 mph possible
A tornado or two possible
SUMMARY...A well-organized bowing thunderstorm complex will likely
continue to pose a threat for scattered to numerous damaging winds
as it tracks quickly east-southeastward this morning. Peak gusts may
reach up to 65-75 mph on an isolated basis, and a brief tornado or
two is also possible.
The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 100
statute miles east and west of a line from 40 miles west of
Shreveport LA to 25 miles northwest of Harrison AR. For a complete
depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update
(WOUS64 KWNS WOU3).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.
&&
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 372...
AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
1 inch. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 65 knots. A few
cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 550. Mean storm motion vector
30045.
...Gleason
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WW 0373 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 373
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 SE SPS TO
5 ESE PRX TO 20 SW DEQ TO 20 ESE DEQ TO 30 WSW HOT TO 25 NW HOT
TO 25 SW RUE TO 15 NW RUE TO 35 SSW FLP TO 15 SW UNO.
..BUNTING..06/22/26
ATTN...WFO...LZK...TSA...SHV...FWD...
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 373
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ARC001-011-013-019-023-025-027-029-039-041-043-045-051-053-057-
059-069-073-079-081-085-091-095-099-103-105-115-117-119-125-137-
139-141-145-147-221340-
AR
. ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ARKANSAS BRADLEY CALHOUN
CLARK CLEBURNE CLEVELAND
COLUMBIA CONWAY DALLAS
DESHA DREW FAULKNER
GARLAND GRANT HEMPSTEAD
HOT SPRING JEFFERSON LAFAYETTE
LINCOLN LITTLE RIVER LONOKE
MILLER MONROE NEVADA
OUACHITA PERRY POPE
PRAIRIE PULASKI SALINE
STONE UNION VAN BUREN
WHITE WOODRUFF
LAC015-017-027-111-119-221340-
LA
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WW 0372 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 372
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM GYI TO 30 S
MLC TO 25 ESE MLC TO 30 ENE MLC TO 30 SSE MKO TO 15 SSE MKO TO 35
SW GMJ.
..BUNTING..06/22/26
ATTN...WFO...OUN...TSA...
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 372
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
OKC023-127-221140-
OK
. OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CHOCTAW PUSHMATAHA
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
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No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Mon Jun 22 13:00:12 UTC 2026.
SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0738 AM CDT Mon Jun 22 2026
Valid 221300Z - 231200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF THE
SOUTHEAST TO THE MID-ATLANTIC...AND ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
NORTHERN/CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...
...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms capable of producing damaging winds
and perhaps a couple of tornadoes should occur mainly this afternoon
and evening across portions of the Mid-Atlantic into the Southeast.
Widely scattered severe thunderstorms are also expected across the
northern/central High Plains, with large to very large hail the main
threat.
...ArkLaTex into the Mid-South and Southeast...
A weakened but persistent MCS continues this morning across AR into
northeast TX. This cluster will track east-southeastward towards the
lower MS Valley over the next few hours while gradually weakening.
But, it should still pose some risk for isolated to widely scattered
damaging winds in the short term. The convectively augmented MCV
attendant to the ongoing MCS will also move east-northeastward
across the lower MS Valley and Mid-South/central Gulf Coast states
through the day. Gradual destabilization of a rather moist low-level
airmass (surface dewpoints generally in the low to mid 70s) should
occur, even with widespread cloudiness hampering daytime heating to
some extent. Modestly enhanced westerly mid-level flow associated
with the MCV and broad upper troughing over the eastern CONUS should
support sufficient deep-layer shear for modest updraft organization.
Multiple clusters and perhaps marginal supercells capable of
producing mainly scattered damaging winds should develop along/south
of a front this afternoon, and spread eastward across much of the
Southeast through at least the early evening. A tornado or two may
also occur in close proximity to the MCV track, but low-level flow
is forecast to be fairly veered and modest.
...Mid-Atlantic...
A mid-level shortwave trough will move eastward today from the OH
Valley into the Mid-Atlantic. Recent visible satellite imagery shows
fairly expansive cloud cover over much of the northern Mid-Atlantic,
with clearer skies farther south into southern VA and vicinity. 12Z
observed soundings across this region show poor lapse rates aloft,
which should hamper any more than weak instability developing this
afternoon, even with filtered daytime heating. Still, strengthening
mid-level westerly winds and large-scale ascent preceding the
shortwave trough will likely encourage scattered to numerous
thunderstorms to develop this afternoon across the higher terrain of
the central Appalachians and Blue Ridge Mountains. These multicell
clusters should pose a threat for mainly scattered damaging winds as
they spread east-northeastward towards the Atlantic Coast through
the afternoon and evening. Marginal hail may occur with the
strongest cores. A couple of tornadoes appear possible along/near a
sharpening warm front in the MD/PA/NJ/DE vicinity, where low-level
shear may become locally enhanced.
...Northern/Central High Plains...
Within a generally zonal mid-level pattern, isolated to widely
scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop this afternoon and
evening across parts of the northern/central High Plains in a modest
low-level upslope flow regime. Moderate instability will be aided by
the presence of steep mid-level lapse rates, and 40-50 kt of
deep-layer shear will easily support supercells with an attendant
threat for large to very large hail. These supercells may be fairly
widely spaced, but will likely track south-southeastward through at
least the early evening before weakening. A couple of tornadoes may
occur with these supercells, particularly across parts of the NE
Panhandle into northeast CO, where the best combination of low-level
moisture, effective SRH, and favorable convective mode should
overlap for a few hours. Latest short-term guidance continues to
show low potential for upscale growth/MCS development tonight, but
trends will be monitored.
..Gleason/Bunting.. 06/22/2026
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Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0355 AM CDT Mon Jun 22 2026
Valid 251200Z - 301200Z
...DISCUSSION...
...D4/Thursday - Central/Northern High Plains...
Upslope flow will strengthen across the central/northern High Plains
on Thursday as a surface low deepens across the southern High
Plains. This, combined with a passing mid-level jet streak and
shortwave trough, should result in scattered storm development
across the High Plains. The most likely corridor will exist from
northern Colorado into eastern Wyoming and far southwestern South
Dakota where the stronger mid-level flow/forcing overspreads the
unstable warm sector.
Beyond Day 4 there will likely be multiple days with eventual severe
weather probabilities given the amplifying trough across the
Northwest and moderate mid-level flow overspreading the northern
Plains where instability will also be quite strong. However, at this
time, there is considerable uncertainty with the timing/location of
each of the mid-level shortwave troughs, and for when the core of
the jet streak associated with the Northwest CONUS low ejects into
the Plains.
Due to these uncertainties, no probabilities have been added beyond
Day 4, but eventual probabilities are anticipated in later outlooks.
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