RSS Mesoscale Discussions from Storm Prediction Center
No watches are valid as of Tue May 5 07:36:02 UTC 2026.
MD 0644 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR NORTHEAST OK INTO NORTHWEST AR AND FAR SOUTHWEST MO
Mesoscale Discussion 0644
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0101 AM CDT Tue May 05 2026
Areas affected...Northeast OK into northwest AR and far southwest MO
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 050601Z - 050800Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent
SUMMARY...Strong to locally severe storms will remain possible
overnight.
DISCUSSION...An elevated storm cluster has recently shown some signs
of organization across northeast OK, with convection increasing
along both a developing cold pool and gust front, and within a warm
advection regime near the OK/MO/AR border region. This cluster is
being aided by a strong low-level jet, which should help to maintain
this cluster as it moves southeastward overnight.
Steep midlevel lapse rates (as observed on regional 00Z soundings),
MUCAPE of near/above 1000 J/kg, and moderate effective shear will
support some hail potential with the strongest embedded updrafts,
though the ongoing cluster/linear mode may mitigate hail potential
to some extent. Severe wind potential is also uncertain, due to the
elevated nature of the ongoing convection. However, given the
presence of a surface cold pool and sharp pressure rises (2-3
mb/hour) behind the gust front noted on Mesonet observations in
northeast OK, locally damaging wind could also accompany this system
as it moves southeastward.
..Dean/Mosier.. 05/05/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...LZK...SGF...TSA...ICT...
LAT...LON 37099541 36769396 36279245 35969268 35609313 35379404
35729464 36029506 36249525 36699553 37099541
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN
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SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1236 AM CDT Tue May 05 2026
Valid 051200Z - 061200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CENTERED OVER
ARKANSAS AND EXTENDING FROM NORTHEAST TEXAS INTO WESTERN
TENNESSEE...
...SUMMARY...
Widely scattered severe storms are possible Tuesday afternoon into
Tuesday night from northeast Texas into western Tennessee, with the
main threat centered over Arkansas. The strongest storms will be
capable of large hail, damaging winds, and a few tornadoes. More
isolated, strong to severe storms are possible across parts of the
Northeast.
...Synopsis...
A vigorous, mid-level low over Ontario this evening is forecast to
evolve into an open wave while translating east into Quebec on
Tuesday. An accompanying belt of strong, mid/upper-level winds will
overspread the lower Great Lakes and northern New England in tandem
with modest height falls related to a vorticity maximum pivoting
through the base of the parent system. Elsewhere, a mid-level low
currently along the CA coast is expected to weaken while shifting
through the lower-CO Valley to the vicinity of the Four Corners
region. A belt of 50-70 kt winds at 500 mb are forecast downstream
from that feature, extending from the southern Plains into the Mid
South on Tuesday afternoon into evening.
In the low levels, a cold front is expected to extend from southeast
Quebec through the OH and mid-MS Valleys to low pressure over OK
Tuesday morning. The northern extension of the boundary will move
into the lower Great Lakes and northern New England during the peak
of the diurnal heating cycle. The segment of the front across the
Ozarks and Ozark Plateau may be temporarily displaced to the south
Tuesday morning due to overnight thunderstorm activity. However by
afternoon, the front is expected to refocus in the vicinity of the
MO-AR border, ahead of a weakening surface low moving through
eastern OK into western AR. The western extension of the cold front
trailing the surface low is expected to advance southeast through
the Red River Valley.
...Northeast Texas into the southern Missouri and western
Tennessee...
As mentioned in the synopsis, a complex of thunderstorms may be
ongoing at the start of the forecast period across portions of MO
into northern AR. That activity is expected to shift east of the
area by late morning or early afternoon, with some lingering shower
and thunderstorm development occurring to the north of the front in
central MO. In the wake of the early-day convection, HREF cloud
forecasts indicate the potential for considerable high-level clouds
and pockets of thicker low-cloudiness, which could limit the
potential for stronger diabatic warming within the pre-frontal air
mass. Nonetheless, the presence of boundary-layer dewpoints in the
60s in conjunction with an elevated-mixed layer (EML) plume will
support a moderately unstable air mass by afternoon with MLCAPE of
1000-2000 J/kg.
Neutral to slight height rises are forecast in the mid levels during
the peak of the diurnal heating cycle with model forecast soundings
indicating considerable capping at the base of the EML. As such,
eventual storm coverage remains uncertain. The 00z high-resolution
models suggest that isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms will
become increasingly likely by late afternoon or early evening along
the frontal segment along the MO-AR border, immediately
east/northeast of the surface low. Additional, isolated storm
development also appears possible from the vicinity of the surface
low southwest along the cold front into northeast TX, mainly during
the evening hours.
The favorable overlap of moderate instability and strong deep-layer
shear will favor supercell storm modes, especially given the
anticipated weak forcing for ascent. Large hail will be the
predominant severe-weather hazard initially. A few tornadoes appear
possible across portions of northern AR, potentially into western TN
from late afternoon through the evening association with any
sustained supercells. Here, the presence of a 35-40 kt low-level jet
will yield effective SRH of 200-300 m2/s2 amidst a moist/low-LCL
environment. Storms may eventually grow upscale into clusters, at
which point damaging winds would become a growing concern.
...Lower Great Lakes into northern New England...
Moisture advection occurring along a southwesterly low-level jet
will allow dewpoints to rise into the 50s within the pre-frontal
warm sector on Tuesday. And while mid-level lapse rates are not
expected to be particularly steep, the moisture increase combined
with daytime heating and the resultant steepening of low-level lapse
rates will result in MLCAPE of 500 to perhaps 1000 J/kg. Increasing
height falls aloft and convergence/lift along the cold front are
expected to support surface-based storm development by early
afternoon within the destabilizing air mass across portions of
upstate NY. The storms will quickly overspread northern portions of
VT, NH, and ME during the afternoon into early evening.
The 00z high-resolution models indicate the potential for transient
supercell and bowing structures, which appears reasonable given the
presence of a relatively strong, deep-layer wind field. In that
scenario, isolated occurrences of damaging winds and perhaps some
marginally severe hail appear possible. The tornado threat will be
conditional on sufficient instability to support more sustained
supercell structures. A level 1/Marginal Risk will be maintained;
however, if it becomes apparent that stronger instability will
develop than is currently anticipated, an upgraded to level 2/Slight
Risk may become necessary.
..Mead/Lyons.. 05/05/2026
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SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1207 AM CDT Tue May 05 2026
Valid 061200Z - 071200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTHEAST TX
TO THE LOWER MS AND TN VALLEYS...
...SUMMARY...
Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are expected Wednesday
afternoon and evening across portions of Texas into the lower
Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys/southern Appalachians. Damaging
winds, large hail, and a couple of tornadoes will be possible.
...Synopsis...
A positive-tilt large-scale upper trough will extend from the Upper
Great Lakes to the Southwest early Wednesday. The southern extent of
the trough will develop east toward the southern High Plains to
northwest Mexico by Thursday morning. Strong mid/upper southwesterly
flow ahead of the trough will overspread much of the southern and
eastern U.S. At the surface, a cold front will extend from the upper
Ohio Valley to central TX during the morning. The front is expected
to develop south/southeast through the period, becoming oriented
from the southern Mid-Atlantic to South TX by Thursday morning.
Ahead of the front, rich Gulf moisture will be in place across TX
into the Lower MS and TN Valleys, decreasing with northeast extent
into parts of the southern Appalachians.
...Northern TN Valley and southern Appalachians...
Forecast guidance varies, but some showers/thunderstorms may be
ongoing Wednesday morning across parts of AR into northern parts of
the TN Valley within a warm advection regime on the nose a gradually
weakening low-level jet. This activity will likely play some role in
destabilization later in the day across parts of the TN Valley into
the southern Appalachians vicinity. Nevertheless, strong deep-layer
shear and a moist boundary layer will be sufficient for at least
some severe risk, including damaging wind gusts and perhaps hail.
Some tornado risk could also materialize given favorable low-level
shear and 0-1 km SRH increasing to greater than 250 m2/s2 during the
afternoon/evening. However, this is less certain given
aforementioned instability issues and later storm timing into the
southern Appalachians.
...TX to MS/AL...
Further south from northeast TX into MS/AL, strong destabilization
is forecast where deep boundary layer moisture and stronger daytime
heating occurs. MLCAPE in the 2000-3000 J/kg range appear possible
in particular across northern LA into MS. Midlevel southwesterly
flow is expected to increase by late afternoon into the evening as
early capping will be overcome as the surface front begins to
develop south/southeast. Convection along the cold front may quickly
transition to linear/bowing segments given deep shear parallel to
the surface boundary. However, low-level flow in latest model
guidance does not appear to be overly veered, especially near
northern LA into MS. Forecast hodographs indicate enlarged,
favorably curved hodographs across this area. If open warm sector
supercells develop, a risk for tornadoes (perhaps a couple strong
tornadoes) will be possible. Furthermore, steepening midlevel lapse
rates are evident in forecast soundings, along with
elongated/straight hodographs and 45+ kt effective shear magnitudes.
This indicates any semi-discrete supercells could pose a risk for
large to very large hail. With time during the evening/nighttime
hours, convection should generally congeal into a line or bowing MCS
and spread eastward across the TN Valley toward the southern
Appalachians, posing a risk for damaging gusts. Higher tornado and
hail probabilities were considered across parts of the Lower MS
Valley, however, given uncertainty in storm mode and coverage of
discrete supercells, will hold at level 2 (Slight) risk for now.
Across portions of central TX overnight, some guidance suggests
convection may develop within low-level warm advection as the
western extent of the surface cold front dives southward across the
Edward Plateau vicinity. If storms develop, they would likely be
elevated. Nevertheless, a hail risk could materialize within the
conditional scenario late in the forecast period.
..Leitman.. 05/05/2026
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SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0140 AM CDT Tue May 05 2026
Valid 071200Z - 081200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
CENTRAL GULF COAST TO SOUTH CAROLINA...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible on Thursday
across portions of the central Gulf coast into South Carolina.
...Gulf coast to SC...
A large upper trough will pivot over the eastern U.S. on Thursday.
Strong west/southwesterly deep-layer flow will be in place across
the Southeast into the Mid-Atlantic. At the surface, a cold front
will develop south/southeast across portions of south TX, the
central Gulf coast states and the Southeast/Mid-Atlantic vicinity. A
seasonally moist airmass will be in place ahead of the boundary, and
some risk for strong to severe storms will exist near the
progressing cold front from southern MS/AL into SC.
There is some uncertainty regarding the position of the cold front
Thursday morning. The NAM is faster compared to the GFS and ECMWF.
Nevertheless, rich Gulf moisture ahead of the boundary will support
at least modest destabilization. Convection will likely be ongoing
near the front Thursday morning. Redevelopment or intensification
into midday and through the afternoon appears plausible given strong
deep-layer flow within the modestly unstable airmass. Clusters and
linear convection appear most likely, with an attendant risk of
damaging wind.
...South TX...
Severe potential across south TX is uncertain and will depend on
cold frontal position Thursday morning. If southward progress of the
front is slowly, some risk of severe could develop across south TX
where 70s dewpoints and daytime heating could support strong
instability. If storms develop, a risk for hail appears possible.
However, some forecast guidance surges the cold front southward
across the region during the morning and maintains capping through
the day. Low confidence precludes severe probabilities at this time.
..Leitman.. 05/05/2026
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Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0232 AM CDT Tue May 05 2026
Valid 081200Z - 131200Z
...DISCUSSION...
Mean upper troughing will persist east of the Rockies for the Day
4-8 period. This will largely suppress northward transport of Gulf
moisture, except periodically across the southern Plains and
Southeast/Gulf coast states. Severe potential is expected to be low
on Day 4/Fri as surface high pressure dominates in the wake of a
prior cold frontal passage offshore the Gulf and Atlantic coasts. On
Day 5/Sat, lee troughing will allow for increasing
south/southeasterly low-level flow across the southern Plains and
Lower MS Valley, aiding in moisture return across these areas. This
could result in thunderstorm potential across the south-central
U.S., but severe potential is limited given a lack of stronger
forcing for ascent. By Days 6-7/Sun-Mon, another cold front is
forecast to move east/southeast across much of the U.S. east of the
Rockies. As the front impinges on a moist airmass across the
southern Plains to the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic, some severe
potential could develop. However, mid to upper-level flow is not
forecast to be overly strong and medium range guidance varies quite
a bit with respect to moisture and cold front timing, resulting in
low predictability.
Read more
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1255 AM CDT Tue May 05 2026
Valid 051200Z - 061200Z
...Synopsis...
Stronger southwesterly flow aloft ahead of an advancing upper-level
trough will move into the Southern Plains through today. A cold
front trailing behind an elongated surface low over OK should stall
across the TX Panhandle and just south of the Red River Valley this
afternoon. Farther east, a deepening upper trough over Ontario and
Quebec and associated increasing southwesterly mid-level flow will
encroach into the Northeast today. At the surface, drier pre-frontal
southwest flow will affect much of the Mid Atlantic and Northeast.
...Mid Atlantic...
Dry, southerly to southwesterly flow ahead of an eastward moving
cold front across the OH River Valley is expected across the Mid
Atlantic today. Limited boundary layer moisture, leading to RH
reductions of 20-30%, and sustained south/southwest winds of around
15 mph with higher gusts will evolve by mid-afternoon in the
Carolinas and Mid Atlantic. A zone of minimal rainfall has resulted
in lingering fuel dryness across northern NC into much of central
and eastern VA. Elevated fire weather highlights where added to the
aforementioned area where most likely alignment of dry and breezy
conditions and dry fuels exist.
...West Texas...
A 60-65 knot mid-level jet in advance of an upper trough will eject
into the Southern Plains today. A cold front will stall across the
northwest TX, inhibiting dry, downslope enhanced westerly flow from
aligning with the more receptive fuels across the eastern TX
Panhandle into southwestern KS. Breezy west winds of 15-25 mph amid
relative humidity of around 15% are still expected across much of
west TX. However, recent wetting rainfall in the region has
mitigated the overall fuelscape, limiting impact from an otherwise
elevated fire weather threat.
..Williams.. 05/05/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1257 AM CDT Tue May 05 2026
Valid 061200Z - 071200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
...Synopsis...
An elongated upper-level trough deepens across the Great Lakes into
the Southwest Wednesday, with a broad corridor of stronger mid-level
winds over the Southern Plains. A related cold front stretching
southwestward from the Northeast into TX gradually advances east
through Wednesday afternoon before a marked southward acceleration
takes place overnight across TX. A drying and warming trend
commences Wednesday across the Intermountain West as an upper ridge
pushes into the West Coast.
...Southern New Mexico into West Texas...
Stronger mid-level flow will linger across portions of the Southwest
and TX as a more robust jet core of 75-80 knots shifts into the OH
River Valley. Stronger westerly winds of 15-25 mph south of an
advancing cold front over the TX Panhandle and enhanced downslope
drying should yield 15% RH or less across much of southern NM into
West TX. However, recent rainfall has moderated fuels across this
region, mitigating the overall fire weather threat.
..Williams.. 05/05/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
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