RSS Mesoscale Discussions from Storm Prediction Center
No watches are valid as of Mon Feb 16 08:17:02 UTC 2026.
No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Mon Feb 16 08:17:02 UTC 2026.
SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1151 PM CST Sun Feb 15 2026
Valid 161200Z - 171200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF
THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COASTAL COUNTIES...
...SUMMARY...
Strong thunderstorms may impact the coastal areas of central and
southern California this afternoon and evening. These storms may
produce locally damaging wind gusts, and perhaps a brief tornado.
...Coastal central into southern CA...
A potent upper trough will move across CA during the afternoon and
evening, with a 100+ kt midlevel jet nosing across southern CA. At
the surface, low pressure will deepen as it moves into central CA,
with a cold front affecting much of the coastline after 18Z. Strong
wind convergence along the front will result in a line of shallow
convection, with embedded thunderstorms possible. This line is
likely to affect the central coastline by around 18Z, and through
the remainder of southern CA by 00Z. Strong wind gusts will be
likely, with a few locations possibly reaching over 50 kt. Weak
instability and cool surface temperatures will be mitigating factors
to tornado risk, however, embedded circulations within the line
cannot be ruled out.
...Interior Valleys...
It appears substantial precipitation will hamper
heating/destabilization for much of the day, with very little SBCAPE
evident on various model forecast soundings. As such, despite model
low-level warm advection with veering winds with height, it appears
lapses rates may not quite favor severe convection, and the low
probabilities have been removed.
...Coastal southwest OR and northern CA...Late...
Overnight, an upper trough will dive southward just off the Pacific
Northwest, with the left-exit region of the upper jet pushing into
northern CA early Tuesday morning. While surface temperatures will
be cool and in the 40s F in the wake of the earlier wave, this
secondary trough will bring cold temperatures aloft with and 500 mb
temperatures to around -35 C. As such, SBCAPE of a few hundred J/kg
will exist as the cold front moves across the coastal counties.
Low-topped convection may produce graupel, along with locally strong
wind gusts.
..Jewell/Squitieri.. 02/16/2026
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SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1154 PM CST Sun Feb 15 2026
Valid 171200Z - 181200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Scattered thunderstorm activity is possible across Pacific coastal
areas and the Central Valley of California Tuesday into Tuesday
night, as well as across parts of the mid Missouri Valley into Upper
Midwest Tuesday night. However, the risk for severe storms appears
low.
...Discussion...
Models continue to indicate that a lower/mid-tropospheric cyclone
will weaken while migrating inland of the Pacific Northwest coast
Tuesday. However, an initially intense offshore jet is forecast to
continue digging south-southeastward across California coastal areas
to the south of San Francisco Bay, toward the lower Colorado Valley
through late Tuesday night, contributing to the maintenance of
amplified larger-scale troughing across and inland of the U.S.
Pacific Coast.
Downstream, a broad swath of seasonably strong west-southwesterly
mid/upper flow is forecast to continue developing east of the
southern Rockies, across the south central Great Plains and Ohio
Valley, as the remnants of preceding inland migrating troughing
pivot across the northern Rockies and much of the middle/lower
Missouri Valley into the Upper Midwest by late Tuesday night.
Models continue to indicate that initially deep surface troughing
accompanying this perturbation will begin to slowly weaken, but a
broad belt of strong southwesterly low-level flow (including 40-50
kt around 850 mb) may be maintained while spreading from the
central/southern Great Plains into the Ohio Valley by 12Z Wednesday.
To the west/northwest of the low-level jet axis, a plume of rather
modest low-level moisture, including surface dew points in the mid
40s to lower/mid 50s F, may advect from parts of the central Great
Plains across and northeast of the lower/mid Missouri Valley,
beneath a warm/dry elevated mixed-layer initially overspreading much
of the central and southern Great Plains through middle and lower
Mississippi Valley. However, substantive Gulf boundary-layer
modification and inland return flow still appears unlikely through
this period and beyond.
...Pacific Coast...
Low probabilities for thunderstorm activity may linger into early
Tuesday nearly southern California coastal areas. However, the
primary convective potential, including scattered thunderstorm
development, seems likely to become focused across northern and
central California coastal areas into the Central Valley Tuesday
afternoon into Tuesday night. This will accompany strong mid-level
cooling and forcing for ascent associated with the digging mid/upper
jet, which may provide support for stronger cells becoming capable
of producing gusty winds and small hail, particularly near coastal
areas around San Francisco Bay as early as midday Tuesday. It still
appears that the lack of steeper lower/mid-tropospheric lapse rates,
and more substantive CAPE, may minimize the potential for storms to
reach severe criteria, but this will continue to be monitored in
later outlooks for this period.
...Mid Missouri Valley into Upper Midwest...
Given at least limited low-level moisture return, it still appears
that forcing for ascent may contribute to a corridor of thunderstorm
development as strong mid-level height falls overspread the region
late Tuesday afternoon through Tuesday night. Based on the latest
forecast soundings and other model output, the potential for severe
hail and strong surface gusts still appears rather low, but perhaps
not entirely out of the question. This will continue to be
monitored in later outlook updates for this period.
..Kerr.. 02/16/2026
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SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0211 AM CST Mon Feb 16 2026
Valid 181200Z - 191200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
The risk for severe thunderstorms appears negligible across the U.S.
Wednesday through Wednesday night, with probabilities for
thunderstorm development generally low.
...Discussion...
An initial mid-level perturbation and associated surface troughing
pivoting through the Upper Midwest and adjacent Great Lakes region
by the beginning of this period are forecast to undergo substantive
weakening Wednesday through Wednesday night. It is possible that a
residual area of lower/mid-tropospheric forcing for ascent, coupled
with limited moisture return, may maintain sufficient strength to
support continuing convective development capable of producing
lightning while spreading through the lower Great Lakes vicinity
into the day Wednesday. However, this potential is not readily
evident in available NAM forecast soundings, and thunderstorm
probabilities are probably near the minimum 10 percent threshold for
a categorical thunder area.
Upstream, substantive spread is evident in the latest model output
concerning short wave developments within amplified mid/upper
troughing near the Pacific coast. It does appear that one emerging
perturbation may support notable cyclogenesis from the lee of the
Colorado Rockies into the central Great Plains late Wednesday
through Wednesday night. However, modest inland moisture return off
a gradually modifying Gulf boundary layer is generally forecast to
be focused east of the lower Mississippi Valley, into the Southeast,
within a broad belt of south to southwesterly flow around low-level
ridging centered over the southern mid- to subtropical latitudes of
the western Atlantic.
..Kerr.. 02/16/2026
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SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0111 AM CST Mon Feb 16 2026
Valid 161200Z - 171200Z
...Synopsis...
An upper ridge will overspread the Mississippi Valley as a
pronounced mid-level trough impinges on the Rockies today. As this
occurs, strong surface lee troughing will encourage widespread 15+
mph sustained southerly winds over the central and southern High
Plains for much of the afternoon. Elevated highlights have been
maintained over areas devoid of recent precipitation (hence dry
fuels), and where RH will dip below 20 percent for several hours.
..Squitieri.. 02/16/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
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SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0214 AM CST Mon Feb 16 2026
Valid 171200Z - 181200Z
...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PARTS OF NORTHEASTERN
COLORADO...SOUTHWESTERN NEBRASKA...AND EXTREME NORTHWESTERN
KANSAS...
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR THE TEXAS PANHANDLE NORTHWARD
THROUGH MUCH OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...
...Synopsis...
A pronounced mid-level trough, accompanied by a near 120 kt 500 mb
jet streak, will overspread the central into southern High Plains
tomorrow (Tuesday), supporting rapid surface low deepening over the
central/northern Plains by afternoon. Combined isallobaric and
downslope flow along the High Plains will result in a strong
westerly surface wind field amid a drying boundary layer, atop dry
fuels, promoting potentially dangerous conditions favorable for
rapid wildfire spread.
...Central High Plains...
By afternoon peak heating, as a surface low deepens over the central
to northern High Plains, sustained westerly surface winds should
strengthen to at least the 25-35 mph range as RH drops to at least
15-20 percent over most locales, necessitating Critical highlights.
Guidance consensus depicts a belt of 30+ mph sustained surface
winds, with higher gusts, over northeastern Colorado into
southwestern Nebraska, and extreme northwestern Kansas, with RH
likely dipping to at least 15 percent. Currently, guidance suggests
that the primary mid-level jet and accompanying cloud cover should
pass this region to the south. As such, adequate boundary layer
mixing should support the aforementioned surface conditions, and
when also considering the very dry fuels in place (i.e. 90th
percentile ERCs), the addition of Extremely Critical highlights
appears warranted. Even if RH does not dip below 20 percent, the
combination of such strong winds and critically dry fuels should
compensate to support volatile wildfire-spread conditions.
...Southern High Plains...
Sustained west-southwesterly surface winds in the 25-40 mph range
should become established across much of the southern High Plains
Tuesday afternoon as the 120 kt mid-level jet streak overspreads the
region. Considerable cloud cover should accompany the jet streak,
lending uncertainty to the degree of RH reductions over the southern
High Plains. Some guidance hints at RH only dipping to 25-35 percent
over extreme eastern New Mexico into the western Texas Panhandle.
Even so, the strength of the anticipated surface wind field atop
cured fuels devoid of recent precipitation alone warrants the
introduction of at least Critical highlights. RH should drop to at
least 20 to perhaps 15 percent along the Texas Panhandle/Oklahoma
border, promoting high-end Critical fire weather conditions. If
confidence increases in further RH reductions over this area,
Extremely Critical highlights may need to be introduced in future
outlooks.
..Squitieri.. 02/16/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
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