RSS Mesoscale Discussions from Storm Prediction Center
WW 130 TORNADO KS MO OK 171835Z - 180200Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Tornado Watch Number 130
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
135 PM CDT Fri Apr 17 2026
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Tornado Watch for portions of
South-Central and Eastern Kansas
Northern and West-Central Missouri
Northern and Western Oklahoma
* Effective this Friday afternoon and evening from 135 PM until
900 PM CDT.
* Primary threats include...
A few tornadoes likely with a couple intense tornadoes possible
Widespread damaging winds and isolated significant gusts to 85
mph likely
Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 4
inches in diameter likely
SUMMARY...Thunderstorm development is underway along a southeastward
progressing cold front that extends from northwest Missouri into
northwest Oklahoma. The environment ahead of this front is very
unstable and strongly sheared, and capable of supporting robust
supercells. All hazards are possible with these supercells,
including very large to giant hail (3 to 4" in diameter), strong
wind gusts, and tornadoes. A transition from hail as the primary
risk to strong gusts is anticipated as storm undergo upscale growth
into a robust convective line. Gusts from 70 to 80 mph will be
possible within this line, which is expected to move from
south-central Kansas into central Missouri.
The tornado watch area is approximately along and 80 statute miles
east and west of a line from 45 miles north northwest of Chillicothe
MO to 25 miles south of Enid OK. For a complete depiction of the
watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU0).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for
tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch
area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for
threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements
and possible warnings.
&&
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 128...WW 129...
AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail
surface and aloft to 4 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind
gusts to 75 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean
storm motion vector 27030.
...Mosier
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WW 129 TORNADO IA IL MN MO WI 171740Z - 180100Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Tornado Watch Number 129
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1240 PM CDT Fri Apr 17 2026
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Tornado Watch for portions of
Central and Eastern Iowa
Northern and West-Central Illinois
Southeast Minnesota
Far Northeast Missouri
Central and Southern Wisconsin
* Effective this Friday afternoon and evening from 1240 PM until
800 PM CDT.
* Primary threats include...
A few tornadoes likely with a couple intense tornadoes possible
Widespread large hail and isolated very large hail events to 3.5
inches in diameter likely
Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely
SUMMARY...A very moist and unstable airmass exists ahead of a cold
front progressing eastward/southeastward across the region.
Thunderstorm development is anticipated within the warm sector ahead
of the front, where discrete supercells capable of all severe
hazards, including very large hail and strong to intense tornadoes,
are possible. Thunderstorm development is possible along the front
as well, with large hail and strong gusts the primary risk with
these storms.
The tornado watch area is approximately along and 110 statute miles
north and south of a line from 55 miles north northwest of Des
Moines IA to 55 miles east of Madison WI. For a complete depiction
of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS
WOU9).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for
tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch
area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for
threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements
and possible warnings.
&&
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 128...
AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail
surface and aloft to 3.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind
gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean
storm motion vector 26035.
...Mosier
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WW 128 SEVERE TSTM MN WI 171420Z - 172200Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 128
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
920 AM CDT Fri Apr 17 2026
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of
East-Central and Far Southeast Minnesota
Northwest and North-Central Wisconsin
* Effective this Friday morning and afternoon from 920 AM until
500 PM CDT.
* Primary threats include...
Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2
inches in diameter possible
Isolated damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible
SUMMARY...Ongoing line of thunderstorms over southeast MN is
forecast to continue northeastward. The overall environment ahead of
this line is expected to become more supportive of strong to severe
storms with time. Additional thunderstorm development is anticipated
as well. Large hail is the primary severe risk, although isolated
strong gusts are possible as well.
The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 75
statute miles east and west of a line from 105 miles north of Eau
Claire WI to 10 miles east of La Crosse WI. For a complete depiction
of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS
WOU8).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.
&&
AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A
few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector
24030.
...Mosier
Read more
WW 0130 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0130 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET
Read more
WW 0129 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0129 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET
Read more
WW 0128 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 128
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 N MSP TO
15 SSE DLH.
..THORNTON..04/17/26
ATTN...WFO...MPX...ARX...DLH...GRB...
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 128
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
MNC163-171940-
MN
. MINNESOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
WASHINGTON
WIC003-005-007-013-017-031-033-051-069-085-091-095-099-107-109-
113-119-125-129-171940-
WI
. WISCONSIN COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ASHLAND BARRON BAYFIELD
BURNETT CHIPPEWA DOUGLAS
DUNN IRON LINCOLN
ONEIDA PEPIN POLK
PRICE RUSK ST. CROIX
SAWYER TAYLOR VILAS
WASHBURN
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
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MD 0475 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 129... FOR EASTERN IOWA INTO FAR NORTHWEST ILLINOIS AND SOUTHWESTERN WISCONSIN
Mesoscale Discussion 0475
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0205 PM CDT Fri Apr 17 2026
Areas affected...eastern Iowa into far northwest Illinois and
southwestern Wisconsin
Concerning...Tornado Watch 129...
Valid 171905Z - 172000Z
The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 129 continues.
SUMMARY...Tornado threat is increasing, with potential for a strong
tornado.
DISCUSSION...A pair of supercells have become more well defined with
the confluence zone across eastern Iowa. The environment near these
cells is within a zone of favorable low-level shear, with easterly
back surface flow and 100-200 m2/s2 0-1 km SRH. Given the equally
favorable thermodynamic environment, potential for tornadoes,
perhaps a strong tornado, is increasing.
..Thornton.. 04/17/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...MKX...DVN...ARX...
LAT...LON 42679069 42269111 41429198 41449142 41928999 42228989
42388980 42778999 42829041 42679069
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...140-170 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...75-90 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...2.75-4.25 IN
Read more
MD 0474 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS INTO THE MID-MISSOURI VALLEY
Mesoscale Discussion 0474
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1242 PM CDT Fri Apr 17 2026
Areas affected...portions of the southern/central Great Plains into
the mid-Missouri Valley
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely
Valid 171742Z - 172015Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent
SUMMARY...Numerous severe thunderstorms are expected to form
along/ahead of a cold front and dryline from northern Missouri
southwestward into northwestern Oklahoma this afternoon. Storms will
pose a threat for all hazards, including hail to 3-3.5+ inches in
diameter, very strong wind gusts of 60-80+ mph, and a couple of
tornadoes (perhaps strong). Watch issuance will be needed in the
next 1-2 hours.
DISCUSSION...Latest mesoanalysis depicts a strongly unstable air
mass in place ahead of a triple point over northwestern Oklahoma and
the associated cold front/dryline. Temperatures in the upper-70s F
and dewpoints in the mid/upper-60s are contributing to strong
instability of 2000-3000+ J/kg MLCAPE across the region per latest
mesoanalysis. Low-level convergence is forecast to lead to
convection initiation near the triple point and along the cold
front/prefrontal confluence zone through the afternoon. Strong
southwesterly flow (50+ kts at 4-5 km AGL per regional VWPs) is
contributing to effective bulk shear of 40-50 kts (locally greater
near the triple point), which will support supercells with initial
storm formation. Steep mid-level lapse rates (as sampled by the 12z
OUN/TOP/SGF soundings and recent ACARS profiles), elongated
hodographs, and ample buoyancy within the hail growth zone will
support the potential for hail of 3-3.5+ inches in diameter. Strong
downdrafts (with wind gusts up to 60-80 mph) are also possible given
the presence of some drier mid-level air.
The tornado threat remains more uncertain as deep-layer flow is
largely oriented parallel to the cold front, which may yield complex
storm mode/interactions. Given the potential for supercellular mode
and storm/outflow interactions, at least some potential for a couple
of tornadoes (perhaps strong) appears to exist, however. This
appears most likely with any supercell that is able to remain more
discrete into the evening hours when a strengthening nocturnal
low-level jet will yield increasingly curved low-level hodographs.
Trends will continue to be monitored, and a tornado watch will be
needed within the next 1-2 hours to cover these threats.
With time, the development of a forward-propagating MCS is
anticipated across much of this area, with an accompanying
transition towards severe wind gusts (80+ mph wind gusts possible)
and perhaps embedded tornadoes as the primary threats.
..Chalmers/Mosier.. 04/17/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...SGF...EAX...TSA...OAX...TOP...ICT...OUN...DDC...
LAT...LON 36559959 37359896 38879741 40089628 40419548 40519443
40279381 39679370 38659397 37659462 36669558 35639699
35079813 34999904 35509967 36559959
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-130 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...75-90 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...2.75-4.25 IN
Read more
SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook CORR 1
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1203 PM CDT Fri Apr 17 2026
Valid 171630Z - 181200Z
...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM FAR
NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA THROUGH CENTRAL AND EASTERN KANSAS INTO
WEST-CENTRAL MISSOURI...
CORRECTED FOR ORIENTATION OF THE 45% HAIL PROBABILITIES
...SUMMARY...
Numerous severe thunderstorms are likely this afternoon into tonight
across parts of the Upper Midwest southward across the lower
Missouri Valley and central/southern Great Plains. Initially this
may be accompanied by a risk for large to giant hail and a few
strong tornadoes, before severe wind gusts of 60 to 90 mph become
the most prominent hazard by this evening.
...Synopsis...
Recent surface analysis places a low over south-central MN, with a
cold front extending southwestward to another low over central KS. A
warm front also extends southwestward from the MN low through far
southwest MN and far northern IL into central IN. This warm front is
demarcated well by the 56 deg F isodrosotherm. Farther south, a
dryline extends from the triple point KS low back southwestward
through the TX Panhandle and into far southeast NM. A broad, moist
warm sector exists to the east of the cold front and dryline,
characterized largely by dewpoints in the low to mid 60s.
A well-defined shortwave trough is apparent on satellite imagery,
extending from southern Saskatchewan back southwestward into the
eastern Great Basin. This wave is forecast to continue eastward,
with a attendant increase in the mid-level flow across much of the
Plains and Upper/Mid MS Valley. The cold front will surge
eastward/southeastward in response to this wave as well, interacting
with the warm sector to support numerous strong to severe
thunderstorms from parts of the Upper Midwest southward across the
lower Missouri Valley into southern Plains.
...Upper/Mid MS Valley...
Moderate to strong low-level moisture advection is expected across
the Upper MS Valley today as the surface low mentioned in the
synopsis progresses northeastward, with an attendant northward shift
of the warm front as well. The risk across this region may evolve in
several phases, beginning with the elevated thunderstorms currently
ongoing across northwest WI. This storms will likely continue
northeastward, posing a risk for severe hail and isolated damaging
gusts. Additional development is possible northwest of this activity
along the occluded front, with some hail possible here as well.
Farther south, the northeastward advecting low-level moisture
coupled with strong heating and steep lapse rates will result in a
strongly unstable airmass along and just south of the warm front by
the early afternoon. Storm initiation is anticipated within this
open warm sector by early afternoon, forced by a mix of warm-air
advection, low-level confluence, and subtly increasing large-scale
ascent. This activity should be ahead of the front and initially
discrete. The overall parameter space will be characterized by
strong to very strong buoyancy, moderate deep-layer vertical shear,
and strong low-level helicity. Supercells capable of all hazards are
expected, including large to very large (i.e. 3"+ hail), strong to
intense tornadoes, and severe wind gusts. Storm interactions are
expected to strongly influence the tornado risk, with the initially
discrete mode likely becoming messy quickly.
Farther west, other storms are likely to evolve quickly along the
front, developing into a band of severe thunderstorms that will push
east coincident with the front. Damaging wind gusts will tend to
become more prevalent during the evening with linear storm modes.
Some tornado risk may continue into the evening as maturing bands of
storms yield a threat for bowing segments and embedded mesovortices,
before this activity gradually diminishes late as it moves east into
IN/Lower MI late.
...KS/OK/MO...
A very unstable airmass is expected to develop along and ahead of
the triple point over south-central KS an associated cold front and
dryline. Strong low-level convergence will likely lead to initial
storm development near the triple point. This initial activity will
be supercellular and capable of very large to giant hail (over
3-3.5" in diameter). Highest coverage of very large hail is expected
over from far northwest OK into south-central KS. Strong downdrafts
(60 to 80 mph) are possible as well. With a largely
boundary-parallel orientation to the deep-layer shear, the tornado
risk appears relatively lower. However, given the supercell mode and
potential interactions with outflow, a low-probability tornado risk
remains. A more north-south configuration to the dryline supports a
conditional tornado risk into far northwest TX.
With time, upscale growth and the development of a
forward-propagating MCS is anticipated across central and eastern
KS. Very strong gusts (80+ mph) are possible with this MCS.
Additionally, some QLCS tornado risk will exist within this line as
long as it stays ahead of the surging cold front. The front will
continue sweeping southeastward, with storms along this boundary
yielding a risk for wind/hail.
..Mosier/Chalmers.. 04/17/2026
Read more
SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1230 PM CDT Fri Apr 17 2026
Valid 181200Z - 191200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY AND CENTRAL APPALACHIANS...
...SUMMARY...
Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms capable of damaging winds
and hail will be possible on Saturday across the upper Ohio Valley
and central Appalachians. Isolated severe hail is also possible
across parts of central Texas.
...Synopsis...
An amplified midlevel trough will advance eastward from the upper MS
Valley to the Great Lakes/OH Valley on Saturday. At the same time, a
cold front extending from lower MI south-southwestward into
south-central TX will move east-southeastward across the OH, TN, and
lower MS Valley during the day. Remnant showers and thunderstorms
will be ongoing along the eastward-moving front at the start of the
period, though this lingering/early-morning activity is generally
expected to be sub-severe.
...Upper OH Valley and Central Appalachians...
As the cold front continues eastward into the upper OH Valley and
central Appalachians into the afternoon, diurnal heating amid a
narrow corridor of upper 50s to lower 60s dewpoints will contribute
to marginal surface-based destabilization immediately ahead of the
front. This, combined with around 40-50 kt of effective shear
oriented oblique to the front, should favor a mix of organized
clusters and perhaps a couple supercell structures -- posing a risk
of scattered damaging wind gusts and isolated severe hail.
Additionally, a remnant 30-40 kt south-southwesterly low-level jet
will yield modest low-level shear/hodograph curvature, and a tornado
or two will be possible with the more organized storms.
...Central TX...
High-resolution guidance is in relatively good agreement, depicting
elevated thunderstorms evolving behind the cold front during the
morning and early afternoon. Steep midlevel lapse rates atop the
frontal surface and elongated/straight hodographs (around 50 kt of
effective shear) could lead to isolated severe hail with any
elevated supercells that evolve.
...Lower MS and TN Valleys...
A couple strong storms will also be possible immediately ahead of
the front as it impinges on the lower MS and TN Valleys during the
afternoon, given around 40 kt of deep-layer shear and a weakly
unstable air mass. However, displacement from the deep-layer forcing
for ascent accompanying the trough, and skinny CAPE profiles, limits
confidence in the severe risk here -- precluding probabilities at
this time.
..Weinman.. 04/17/2026
Read more
SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0225 PM CDT Fri Apr 17 2026
Valid 191200Z - 201200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Sunday.
...Discussion...
An amplified large-scale trough will move eastward from the Great
Lakes to the Northeast on Sunday, while a related cold front moves
off the Eastern Seaboard. Despite poor deep-layer lapse rates, a
narrow corridor of diurnal heating amid lower/middle 60s dewpoints
(higher over the FL Peninsula) ahead of the front should support
isolated thunderstorms from the coastal Carolinas southward across
parts of the FL Peninsula. Weak/narrow buoyancy profiles will limit
thunderstorm intensity and the severe risk.
..Weinman.. 04/17/2026
Read more
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1014 AM CDT Fri Apr 17 2026
Valid 171700Z - 181200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH
PLAINS INTO CENTRAL/SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO...
Minor expansions were made to the Elevated/Critical areas in New
Mexico and the southern High Plains based on the latest observations
and high-resolution forecast guidance. Elevated to locally critical
conditions are already occurring in portions of west Texas and
central/eastern New Mexico, with several hours of elevated/critical
conditions expected in the outlook areas. Otherwise, the forecast
remains on track, and please see the previous discussion for more
details.
..Nauslar.. 04/17/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0107 AM CDT Fri Apr 17 2026/
...Synopsis...
An upper trough will move into the central U.S. and deepen Friday as
an associated mid-level speed max intensifies over the central
Plains. During the afternoon, surface pressure gradients will
tighten across much of the High Plains with a cold front progressing
southwestward into southern Kansas and the Oklahoma Panhandle. This
will promote Critical fire weather conditions throughout eastern New
Mexico, Texas Panhandle, and West Texas. A second shortwave impulse
will exit the eastern U.S. supporting above normal temperatures and
some lingering dry/breezy conditions over the central Appalachians
and Mid-Atlantic.
...Southern Plains...
As the upper trough moves east of the Rockies, increasing mid level
flow will overspread much of the southern High Plains. At the
surface, a strengthening low will quickly traverse the upper
Midwest, dragging a cold front southward. Poor expected overnight
humidity recoveries will encourage RH in the single digits by peak
afternoon heating combined with strong southwest winds of 20-25 mph
(gusts up 40 mph). These conditions amid receptive fuels will
support Critical fire weather conditions for much of the region on
Friday. As the cold front passes through Friday evening, an abrupt
northerly wind shift with strong gusts of up to 40 mph continuing
for a few hours could impact any ongoing wildfires. However, higher
relative humidity and cooler temperatures behind the front are
expected to improve the fire weather environment into the overnight
hours.
Farther north, gusty post-frontal northerly winds are expected over
parts of the central Plains. RH values will climb quickly throughout
the day as temperatures cool. Brief locally elevated fire weather
conditions are possible where fuels have remained dry.
...Central Appalachians and Mid-Atlantic...
In the wake of the departing shortwave trough, westerly flow aloft
will linger over the Appalachians with weak lee surface troughing.
Westerly winds of 10 mph (gusts up to 20 mph) and decreasing RH to
less than 30 percent are expected by peak heating. These conditions
atop a drought ridden landscape and exceptionally dry fuels will
support an Elevated fire weather threat this afternoon.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0200 PM CDT Fri Apr 17 2026
Valid 181200Z - 191200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL
NEBRASKA...
...Southern/Central Plains
A Critical area was added for portions of western/central Nebraska
as west-northwest sustained winds of 20-25 mph amid minimum RH of
15-20% are expected. The Critical area may need to be expanded in
Nebraska if ensemble high-resolution forecast guidance continues to
trend towards higher probabilities for critical RH. The Elevated
area was expanded across Nebraska, central Kansas, southern South
Dakota, eastern Colorado, western Oklahoma, and west Texas amid dry
and breezy post-frontal conditions, with recent/forecast
precipitation helping to delineate the expansion of the Elevated
area.
...Southeast/Mid-Atlantic...
The Elevated area in the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic was also
expanded slightly, with pre-frontal elevated winds/RH appearing more
likely along/east of the Appalachians in portions of Virginia, West
Virginia, Maryland, and Pennsylvania. Thunderstorms are expected
along/ahead of the approaching cold front in the southern/central
Appalachians tomorrow late afternoon into tomorrow night. While not
a conducive or typical dry thunderstorm environment, the expected
lightning with 50%+ probability of receiving less than 0.25" of
rainfall on eastern slopes of the Appalachians onto the Piedmont
Plateau could result in ignitions. Given the following dry and
breezy post-frontal conditions on Day 3/Sunday - Day 4/Monday, there
is concern for increased spread potential of any existing and new
ignitions.
..Nauslar.. 04/17/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0108 AM CDT Fri Apr 17 2026/
...Synopsis...
An amplified upper trough will move towards the upper Great Lakes
and Ohio Valley as temporary upper ridging builds over the West.
Enhanced southwest winds ahead of an eastward progressing cold front
will pose an Elevated fire weather threat across parts of the
Southeast and Mid-Atlantic. In the wake of the aforementioned upper
trough, a post-frontal dry airmass and northerly flow will promote
Elevated fire weather conditions across portions of the central
Plains.
...Central Plains...
Within a post-frontal environment, northwesterly winds of 15-20 mph
and RH of 15-25 percent over dry fuels will pose an Elevated fire
weather threat for portions of central NE, eastern CO, and western
KS on Saturday. However, the areal extent of fire weather highlights
may change as forecast precipitation (and perhaps some snowfall) on
Day 1/Friday may provide some relief to fuel conditions.
...Southeast and Mid-Atlantic...
Increasing southwest flow ahead of an advancing cold front coupled
with the lack of Gulf moisture return and resultant low RH are
expected to promote an Elevated fire weather threat across much of
the Southeast into the Mid-Atlantic. At peak heating, widespread RH
of less than 30 percent will combine with southwesterly winds of
10-15 mph atop receptive fuels. A prolonged period of above normal
temperatures and lack of appreciable rainfall continues to
exacerbate fuel conditions across this region.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
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