RSS Mesoscale Discussions from Storm Prediction Center
WW 484 SEVERE TSTM AZ 112145Z - 120500Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 484
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
345 PM MDT Sat Jul 11 2026
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of
Southeast and south central Arizona
* Effective this Saturday afternoon and evening from 345 PM until
1100 PM MDT.
* Primary threats include...
Scattered damaging winds and isolated significant gusts to 75
mph possible
Isolated large hail events to 1 inch in diameter possible
SUMMARY...Thunderstorms forming on the higher terrain in southeast
Arizona will spread west-southwestward into the lower deserts
through late evening, with the potential for merging storm clusters.
Severe outflow gusts of 60-75 mph will be the main threat, though
the strongest storms may also produce isolated large hail near 1
inch diameter.
The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 80
statute miles east and west of a line from 60 miles northwest of
Safford AZ to 25 miles south southwest of Sierra Vista AZ. For a
complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline
update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU4).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.
&&
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 481...WW 482...WW 483...
AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
1 inch. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 65 knots. A few
cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 6020.
...Thompson
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WW 0484 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 484
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 E PHX TO
35 NE TUS TO 45 SE SAD.
..MEAD..07/12/26
ATTN...WFO...TWC...PSR...
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 484
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
AZC003-019-021-023-120340-
AZ
. ARIZONA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
COCHISE PIMA PINAL
SANTA CRUZ
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
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WW 0483 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 483
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 NNW MLC
TO 10 WNW PNC.
WW 483 WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 120300Z.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1596
..MEAD..07/12/26
ATTN...WFO...OUN...TSA...
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 483
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
OKC037-097-105-111-113-117-131-143-145-147-120300-
OK
. OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CREEK MAYES NOWATA
OKMULGEE OSAGE PAWNEE
ROGERS TULSA WAGONER
WASHINGTON
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
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WW 0482 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 482
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 ESE FYV
TO 30 E RUE TO 35 NE LIT TO 25 NNW MSL.
..HALBERT..07/11/26
ATTN...WFO...LZK...MEG...
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 482
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ARC029-045-071-077-083-085-095-105-115-117-119-123-127-149-
120040-
AR
. ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CONWAY FAULKNER JOHNSON
LEE LOGAN LONOKE
MONROE PERRY POPE
PRAIRIE PULASKI ST. FRANCIS
SCOTT YELL
MSC003-009-033-093-117-137-139-141-143-120040-
MS
. MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ALCORN BENTON DESOTO
MARSHALL PRENTISS TATE
TIPPAH TISHOMINGO TUNICA
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
Read more
WW 0481 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 481
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 ENE SAV
TO 25 W CHS TO 45 SSE ILM.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1590
..HALBERT..07/11/26
ATTN...WFO...ILM...CAE...CHS...
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 481
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
SCC019-112240-
SC
. SOUTH CAROLINA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CHARLESTON
AMZ256-340-360-112240-
CW
. ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE
COASTAL WATERS FROM MURRELLS INLET TO SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SC OUT
20 NM
CHARLESTON HARBOR
COASTAL WATERS FROM SOUTH SANTEE RIVER TO EDISTO BEACH SC OUT 20
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MD 1597 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 484... FOR SOUTHERN ARIZONA
Mesoscale Discussion 1597
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0941 PM CDT Sat Jul 11 2026
Areas affected...southern Arizona
Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 484...
Valid 120241Z - 120445Z
The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 484
continues.
SUMMARY...The potential for isolated severe wind gusts will continue
for the next 1-2 hours.
DISCUSSION...Earlier intense thunderstorms that moved through the
Tucson area have since weakened, per MRMS reflectivity trends. That
observation is consistent with latest objective analysis, which
suggests that convective inhibition is increasing across the
discussion area. Nonetheless, the existence of an active cold pool
and some radar indication of forward-propagational characteristics
with the ongoing storms over central Pima County suggest a continued
risk for isolated severe wind gusts for the next 1-2 hours as storms
move into the western part of the county.
..Mead.. 07/12/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...TWC...PSR...
LAT...LON 33041207 32971085 32520991 32000928 31400944 31411103
31701199 32021317 32451328 32581234 33041207
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
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MD 1596 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 483... FOR NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA
Mesoscale Discussion 1596
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0858 PM CDT Sat Jul 11 2026
Areas affected...northeast Oklahoma
Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 483...
Valid 120158Z - 120330Z
The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 483
continues.
SUMMARY...The potential for locally strong to severe wind gusts is
expected to linger for the next 1-2 hours. Given the increasingly
isolated nature of that threat, the watch will likely be allowed to
expire at 10 PM CDT (03Z).
DISCUSSION...Some brief cold pool organization has occurred from
Mayes and Wagoner Counties into Adair County in northeast OK over
the past hour or so with observed gusts of 66 and 63 mph. Since that
time, the gust front has outpaced the parent updrafts, which should
lead to a general weakening trend through the remainder of the
evening. The exception will be with any new storm development
occurring along colliding outflow boundaries, which may pose a risk
for locally strong to severe wind gusts for the next 1-2 hours.
The current expectation is that the remaining valid portions of the
watch area will likely be allowed to expire at 10 PM CDT (03Z).
..Mead.. 07/12/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...TSA...OUN...
LAT...LON 36849732 36909619 36749549 36339516 35949537 35349599
35339655 35959694 36849732
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
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SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0735 PM CDT Sat Jul 11 2026
Valid 120100Z - 121200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS EASTWARD INTO THE NORTHERN GULF COAST STATES...AND
IN SOUTHERN ARIZONA...
...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms with severe wind gusts will be possible this evening
from parts of Oklahoma east-southeastward into the northern Gulf
Coast states. Storms with severe gusts with some above 70 mph, will
also be possible in southern Arizona.
...Southern Plains/Ozarks/Northern Gulf Coast States...
A very moist airmass is in place from northern parts of the southern
Plains eastward into the northern Gulf Coast States, where surface
dewpoints range from the upper 60s to the mid 70s F. Along this
west-northwest-to-east-southeast corridor, the RAP shows an axis of
moderate instability with MLCAPE from 2000 to 3000 J/kg and 0-3 km
lapse rates in the 7 to 8 C/km range. Near the instability axis, the
WSR-88D VWPs at Oklahoma City, Fort Smith and Little Rock have 0-6
km shear in the 25 to 35 knot range. This suggests potential for
severe wind gusts with the more organized multicell line segments.
The threat may persist for a few more hours...see MCD 1594.
...Southern Arizona...
A sufficiently moist airmass is currently present across southern
Arizona, where surface dewpoints are mostly in the 50s F. An axis of
moderate instability is analyzed by the RAP over southeast Arizona
where MLCAPE is estimated the 1000 to 1500 J/kg range. Scattered
thunderstorms have developed near the instability axis, and these
storms will move westward across southern Arizona this evening.
Ahead of the storms, surface temperature-dewpoint spreads exceed 50
degrees in some locations. The very steep lapse rates will
contribute to a threat for severe wind gusts. A few gusts of 70 to
80 mph will be possible...see MCD 1595.
..Broyles.. 07/12/2026
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