RSS Mesoscale Discussions from Storm Prediction Center
WW 328 SEVERE TSTM IA KS MO NE 132040Z - 140400Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 328
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
340 PM CDT Sat Jun 13 2026
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of
Far Southwest Iowa
North-Central Kansas
Extreme Northwest Missouri
Southeast Nebraska
* Effective this Saturday afternoon and evening from 340 PM until
1100 PM CDT.
* Primary threats include...
Scattered large hail likely with isolated very large hail events
to 2 inches in diameter possible
Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible
A tornado or two possible
SUMMARY...Strong to severe thunderstorm are possible along a cold
front pushing southeastward across north-central Kansas and
southeast Nebraska. Large to isolated very large hail is the primary
severe hazard with these storms, although a few strong wind gusts
are possible as well, particularly over southeast Nebraska and
adjacent far southwest Iowa and extreme northwest Missouri.
The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 35
statute miles north and south of a line from 110 miles west
southwest of Beatrice NE to 25 miles northeast of Shenandoah IA. For
a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline
update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU8).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.
&&
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 327...
AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A
few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector
28030.
...Mosier
Read more
WW 327 TORNADO KS MO 131930Z - 140400Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Tornado Watch Number 327
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
230 PM CDT Sat Jun 13 2026
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Tornado Watch for portions of
Central into Northeast Kansas
Far Northwest Missouri
* Effective this Saturday afternoon and evening from 230 PM until
1100 PM CDT.
* Primary threats include...
A couple tornadoes possible
Scattered damaging winds likely with isolated significant gusts
to 75 mph possible
Scattered large hail likely with isolated very large hail events
to 2.5 inches in diameter possible
SUMMARY...Discrete thunderstorm development appears possible along a
remnant outflow boundary that extends from northeast Kansas through
northwest Missouri. Moist and unstable conditions combined with
moderate deep-layer shear support the potential for supercells
capable of all severe hazards, including tornadoes and large to very
large hail.
The tornado watch area is approximately along and 45 statute miles
north and south of a line from 25 miles north northwest of Salina KS
to 20 miles southeast of Kansas City MO. For a complete depiction of
the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS
WOU7).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for
tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch
area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for
threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements
and possible warnings.
&&
AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail
surface and aloft to 2.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind
gusts to 65 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean
storm motion vector 29035.
...Mosier
Read more
WW 0328 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0328 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET
Read more
WW 0327 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0327 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET
Read more
WW 0326 Status Updates
Read more
MD 1127 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHERN ARKANSAS AND THE MID-SOUTH
Mesoscale Discussion 1127
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0355 PM CDT Sat Jun 13 2026
Areas affected...portions of northern Arkansas and the Mid-South
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible
Valid 132055Z - 132230Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent
SUMMARY...The threat for damaging wind gusts, large hail, and a
brief tornado continues across portions of northern/eastern Arkansas
and will soon spread into western Tennessee and perhaps northern
Mississippi.
DISCUSSION...Convective coverage has increased over the past 1-2
hours along a remnant outflow boundary extending from far
southwestern Missouri into northern Arkansas and toward the
mid-Mississippi Valley. The predominant storm mode consists of a mix
of multicell clusters and occasional supercell structures. MRMS MESH
estimates have ranged up to 1.5" with some storms, with 1" hail
previously reported in northern Arkansas. Latest objective analysis
indicate this activity is approaching a relative maximum in
available buoyancy along the Mississippi River which could result in
some increase in the severe potential over the next 1-2 hours, with
the main risks being large hail and damaging wind gusts.
Some cells have also exhibited transient periods of enhanced
low-level rotation. Low-level shear remains weak ahead of the
remnant outflow boundary, with less than 50 m2/s2 0-1 km SRH sampled
by the NQA VAD. Thus, any potential for a brief tornado is likely to
be tied to any cell that can favorably interact with the outflow
boundary. With greater effective shear remaining displaced to the
north of the outflow boundary, uncertainty remains regarding storm
longevity and the magnitude of the severe threat. Trends will
continue to be monitored for potential watch issuance.
..Chalmers/Mosier.. 06/13/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...PAH...MEG...LZK...SGF...TSA...
LAT...LON 35239268 35769327 36099341 36369343 36519340 36599329
36569310 36329243 36209195 36129138 36089101 36159056
36269024 36538974 36728940 36918917 36988903 37008887
36968865 36878841 36698821 36528814 36148803 35668807
35288827 34948859 34688914 34548961 34539028 34659133
34799185 35189260 35239268
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN
Read more
MD 1126 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH LIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN/WESTERN KANSAS INTO PORTIONS OF THE OKLAHOMA/TEXAS PANHANDLE
Mesoscale Discussion 1126
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0341 PM CDT Sat Jun 13 2026
Areas affected...portions of southern/western Kansas into portions
of the Oklahoma/Texas Panhandle
Concerning...Severe potential...Severe Thunderstorm Watch likely
Valid 132041Z - 132245Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent
SUMMARY...Thunderstorm activity is expected to develop along the
front and spread eastward with time through the evening. Threats
will include damaging wind and large hail.
DISCUSSION...Thunderstorm activity is expected to develop along a
southward moving cold front this afternoon/evening across portions
of western Kansas into the Oklahoma/Texas Panhandles. Initial
activity has begun to develop across the far western Panhandles
where profiles are deeply mixed. As a result initial activity has
struggled to establish but lightning has developed over the last
30-45 minutes.
Ahead of the front, steep low to mid-level lapse rates (7-8 C/km)
are spreading eastward with temperatures in the upper 80s to 90s.
Warming temperatures and dew points in the mid 60s to 70s have
yielded MLCAPE around 2500-3000 J/kg. Initial activity will likely
be supercellular with potential for large hail and damaging wind
before tendency to quickly grow upscale with the southward moving
front. This will likely shift the main threat to become damaging
wind. A watch will likely be needed to cover this potential.
..Thornton/Mosier.. 06/13/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...ICT...OUN...DDC...AMA...
LAT...LON 37020141 37640092 38559966 38989894 38919853 37729833
37149879 36729950 36260007 35800083 35860137 36180178
37020141
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN
Read more
MD 1125 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH LIKELY FOR SOUTHEASTERN NEBRASKA...SOUTHWESTERN IOWA...NORTHERN MISSOURI
Mesoscale Discussion 1125
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0317 PM CDT Sat Jun 13 2026
Areas affected...southeastern Nebraska...southwestern
Iowa...northern Missouri
Concerning...Severe potential...Severe Thunderstorm Watch likely
Valid 132017Z - 132215Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent
SUMMARY...Thunderstorm activity to increase along the southward
moving cold front. Initial supercells will be capable of large hail
and damaging wind.
DISCUSSION...Thunderstorm activity will increase along the cold
front this afternoon/evening spreading eastward through time.
Surface objective analysis is likely underestimating the progression
northward of better instability in the wake of the morning
convection. 18z soundings from TOP and DVN suggest MLCAPE is
spreading northward faster than advertised. Cumulus development is
increasing near the intersection of a diffuse remnant outflow
boundary to the south with the cold front further north. Development
of storms is likely in this region and along the front through the
evening.
Given strong deep layer shear profiles (around 40-50 kts), initial
development will likely be supercellular posing a risk for large
hail and damaging wind. Through time as the front shifts south and
east, tendency will be for upscale growth and a shift to more of a
damaging wind threat. A watch will likely be needed to cover this
potential.
..Thornton/Mosier.. 06/13/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...DMX...EAX...OAX...TOP...GID...
LAT...LON 39969768 39689829 39679851 39729881 39859882 40619831
41169688 41549569 41709491 41409489 40489505 40059620
39969768
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN
Read more
MD 1124 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST
Mesoscale Discussion 1124
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0207 PM CDT Sat Jun 13 2026
Areas affected...portions of the Southeast
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 131907Z - 132130Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent
SUMMARY...Widely scattered thunderstorms will bring a localized risk
for damaging downburst winds. Watch issuance is not anticipated.
DISCUSSION...Latest surface observations depict a hot, humid air
mass in place across the southeastern U.S., with temperatures in the
mid-to-upper 90s F and dewpoints in the upper 60s noted along the
Atlantic Coast. Surface convergence along the sea breeze and a of a
roughly west-east oriented stationary boundary is supporting
isolated thunderstorm development as of 19 UTC, with additional
agitated cumulus noted on visible satellite imagery. As thunderstorm
coverage expands through the afternoon (particularly where low-level
convergence maximizes over northeastern SC and southeastern NC),
steep low-level lapse rates and high PWAT contents (1.75-2.0") will
favor the potential for isolated strong to locally damaging
downburst winds. An instance or two of small hail may also accompany
the most robust cores that develop along the sea breeze. A lack of
greater effective shear will limit overall storm organization and
longevity, thus precluding a greater severe risk. Given this, watch
issuance is not anticipated.
..Chalmers/Mosier.. 06/13/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...MHX...RAH...ILM...CHS...CAE...
LAT...LON 33248117 33638083 34747966 34967935 35107901 35297836
35377793 35437759 35457700 35437671 35377652 35287638
35167632 34997638 34847652 34717672 34607693 34547720
34427745 34267768 34027780 33857792 33797822 33777852
33627874 33327902 33077923 32588000 32408028 32418062
32498092 32678114 32908128 33248117
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
Read more
SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1130 AM CDT Sat Jun 13 2026
Valid 131630Z - 141200Z
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY...
...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms are likely today and tonight from
parts of the central and southern Plains to the Lower Missouri and
Middle Mississippi Valleys. Swaths of damaging wind gusts, large
hail, and a few tornadoes are all possible.
...Central/Southern Plains to Middle Mississippi Valley...
Several different areas are already convectively active this
morning, including south-central IA/north-central MO where a bowing
segment is moving southeastward through the region, and farther
south from central/southern MO into far west-central IL, where
elevated thunderstorm are being maintained by modest warm-air
advection. Most immediate severe potential is downstream of the
bowing segment in south-central IA/north-central MO where damaging
wind gusts and isolated hail are possible over the next few hours.
Thereafter, expansive coverage of the ongoing storms in
central/southern MO introduces notable uncertainty regarding the
extent and strength of afternoon destabilization.
General expectation is for the ongoing showers and thunderstorms to
persist, aided by mesoscale ascent attendant to an MCV traversing
the region. Cloud cover will limit heating, but ample low-level
moisture will still support moderate buoyancy. Moderate deep-layer
shear is anticipated over this area as well, with perhaps some more
mesoscale enhancement attendant to the MCV. As a result, a few
stronger embedded multicells and isolated supercells are possible.
Isolated large hail and damaging gusts could occur with the
strongest storms embedded within this likely broad area of showers
and thunderstorms.
A more complex scenario is anticipated along the western edge of the
MO cluster, extending back further westward into north-central KS.
Current surface analysis shows an outflow boundary over extreme
southeast NE arcing back through north-central KS to a low over far
northwest KS. A more substantial surface low exists over southwest
KS. Surface analysis also places a cold front from northwest IA
southwestward to just north of the northwest KS low in far southwest
NE. These boundaries should all influence convective evolution
today, with the outflow/differential heating boundary along the
western edge of the MO cluster likely playing a part as well.
Strong diurnal heating/steepening low-level lapse rates preceding
the surface lows will result in scattered thunderstorm development
near/ahead of the southeast-moving cold front, with the most intense
development likely favoring where the front intercepts the western
periphery of the outflow boundary. This intersection will most
likely be over central into northeast KS. Strong buoyancy and
moderate deep-layer shear will support robust updrafts capable of
large to very large hail early in the convective cycle, before
transitioning to a more linear mode as the front continues
southeastward.
Another area of afternoon thunderstorm development is anticipated
from southern MO into west-central MO and far southeast KS, along
the western edge of the outflow/differential heating associated with
the ongoing MO cluster. Like the area farther northwest, large to
isolated very large hail is anticipated initially. Additionally,
this region could act as a corridor for upscale growth as the
development along the cold front begins to interact with the more
in-situ development along this boundary. Damaging winds will be the
most prominent risk within this corridor this evening, potentially
including some significant (75+ mph) wind gusts.
Despite numerous boundaries, the environmental conditions (i.e. high
LCLs and modest surface wind) and anticipated convective evolution
(i.e. outflow-dominant storms with quick evolution towards a linear
mode) only suggest a low-probability tornado threat from discrete
storms. A somewhat higher tornado risk could materialize within any
more robust convective line that develops, particularly during
evening as the low-level jet increases.
...Lower MI...
Scattered thunderstorms are expected along and ahead of a cold front
moving through the region today. Strong low to mid-level flow could
support a few more organized storms, beginning across northern Lower
MI now and then extending back southwestward with time this
afternoon/evening. Primary risks are isolated large hail and
damaging gusts, but a brief tornado is possible as well.
...Carolinas/Coastal Southeast...
Ample heating within a moist environment south of a weak front will
result in moderately strong diurnal destabilization, with convective
development aided by the front and coastal sea breeze. Some
pulse-type locally severe storms capable of downbursts/wind damage
may occur this afternoon through around sunset.
..Mosier/Chalmers.. 06/13/2026
Read more
SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0302 PM CDT Sat Jun 13 2026
Valid 132000Z - 141200Z
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL
TO EASTERN KANSAS AND WESTERN MISSOURI AND ADJACENT PORTIONS OF
NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND FAR NORTHWEST ARKANSAS...
...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms are likely today and tonight from
parts of the central and southern Plains to the Lower Missouri and
Middle Mississippi Valleys. Swaths of damaging wind gusts, large
hail, and a few tornadoes are all possible.
...20z Update...
Only minor modifications were needed to the ongoing forecast based
on recent convective trends. The primary hazard continues to be
initially hail along the front with the onset of convection followed
by rapid upscale growth with an attendant severe wind threat across
eastern KS into adjacent portions of AR, MO, and OK. Given the
prevalence of outflow boundaries intersecting the front per recent
surface observations, there will likely be one or more mesoscale
corridors of higher tornado potential as one or more MCSs develop,
however, confidence is limited in how productive these corridors
will be give the expectation of upscale growth. For additional
short-term details see MCDs #1122, #1123, and #1124.
..Moore.. 06/13/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1130 AM CDT Sat Jun 13 2026/
...Central/Southern Plains to Middle Mississippi Valley...
Several different areas are already convectively active this
morning, including south-central IA/north-central MO where a bowing
segment is moving southeastward through the region, and farther
south from central/southern MO into far west-central IL, where
elevated thunderstorm are being maintained by modest warm-air
advection. Most immediate severe potential is downstream of the
bowing segment in south-central IA/north-central MO where damaging
wind gusts and isolated hail are possible over the next few hours.
Thereafter, expansive coverage of the ongoing storms in
central/southern MO introduces notable uncertainty regarding the
extent and strength of afternoon destabilization.
General expectation is for the ongoing showers and thunderstorms to
persist, aided by mesoscale ascent attendant to an MCV traversing
the region. Cloud cover will limit heating, but ample low-level
moisture will still support moderate buoyancy. Moderate deep-layer
shear is anticipated over this area as well, with perhaps some more
mesoscale enhancement attendant to the MCV. As a result, a few
stronger embedded multicells and isolated supercells are possible.
Isolated large hail and damaging gusts could occur with the
strongest storms embedded within this likely broad area of showers
and thunderstorms.
A more complex scenario is anticipated along the western edge of the
MO cluster, extending back further westward into north-central KS.
Current surface analysis shows an outflow boundary over extreme
southeast NE arcing back through north-central KS to a low over far
northwest KS. A more substantial surface low exists over southwest
KS. Surface analysis also places a cold front from northwest IA
southwestward to just north of the northwest KS low in far southwest
NE. These boundaries should all influence convective evolution
today, with the outflow/differential heating boundary along the
western edge of the MO cluster likely playing a part as well.
Strong diurnal heating/steepening low-level lapse rates preceding
the surface lows will result in scattered thunderstorm development
near/ahead of the southeast-moving cold front, with the most intense
development likely favoring where the front intercepts the western
periphery of the outflow boundary. This intersection will most
likely be over central into northeast KS. Strong buoyancy and
moderate deep-layer shear will support robust updrafts capable of
large to very large hail early in the convective cycle, before
transitioning to a more linear mode as the front continues
southeastward.
Another area of afternoon thunderstorm development is anticipated
from southern MO into west-central MO and far southeast KS, along
the western edge of the outflow/differential heating associated with
the ongoing MO cluster. Like the area farther northwest, large to
isolated very large hail is anticipated initially. Additionally,
this region could act as a corridor for upscale growth as the
development along the cold front begins to interact with the more
in-situ development along this boundary. Damaging winds will be the
most prominent risk within this corridor this evening, potentially
including some significant (75+ mph) wind gusts.
Despite numerous boundaries, the environmental conditions (i.e. high
LCLs and modest surface wind) and anticipated convective evolution
(i.e. outflow-dominant storms with quick evolution towards a linear
mode) only suggest a low-probability tornado threat from discrete
storms. A somewhat higher tornado risk could materialize within any
more robust convective line that develops, particularly during
evening as the low-level jet increases.
...Lower MI...
Scattered thunderstorms are expected along and ahead of a cold front
moving through the region today. Strong low to mid-level flow could
support a few more organized storms, beginning across northern Lower
MI now and then extending back southwestward with time this
afternoon/evening. Primary risks are isolated large hail and
damaging gusts, but a brief tornado is possible as well.
...Carolinas/Coastal Southeast...
Ample heating within a moist environment south of a weak front will
result in moderately strong diurnal destabilization, with convective
development aided by the front and coastal sea breeze. Some
pulse-type locally severe storms capable of downbursts/wind damage
may occur this afternoon through around sunset.
Read more
SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1237 PM CDT Sat Jun 13 2026
Valid 141200Z - 151200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTHERN
GEORGIA NORTHWARD INTO PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...
...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms capable of damaging wind gusts are
expected across the Mid-Atlantic vicinity Sunday afternoon and
evening. Additional strong to severe storms are expected across the
Upper Ohio Valley and Lower Great Lakes area.
... Synopsis ...
Broad troughing will exist across the eastern US on Sunday with
several smaller-scale troughs moving through a longer-wave trough.
At the start of the forecast period, one shortwave trough will be
moving across the Northeast and a secondary low-amplitude trough
will approach the eastern US later in the day. As this happens,
low-mid-level southwesterly flow will increase to around 40 knots,
providing effective-layer shear sufficient for thunderstorm
organization.
Surface dewpoints will increase into the low 60Fs perhaps as far
north as central/southern New York ahead of an eastward advancing
cold front. Diurnal heating of this moist airmass should result in
MLCAPE perhaps as high as 1500-2500 J/kg across the southern
Mid-Atlantic, to perhaps 1000 J/kg across portions of New York.
Multiple rounds of thunderstorms will be possible along and ahead of
the surface front during the afternoon and evening. Damaging wind
gusts will be the main concern with these storms, although an
isolated tornado will also be possible. Strong consideration was
given to increasing wind probabilities to 45% (Level 3/Enhanced)
across the central/northern Mid-Atlantic region, but opted to defer
any upgrade to later outlooks after collaboration with local
offices.
Additional bands/clusters of storms are likely to develop during the
afternoon across portions of the Upper Ohio Valley into PA/NY. While
instability will be lower across this area, deep-layer flow will be
stronger. Linear bands and clusters will pose a risk for isolated
severe/damaging wind gusts through the evening.
... Southeast NM to the ArkLaTex ...
A southward sagging surface front/composite outflow will extend west
to east across the region. A very moist and moderately unstable
airmass will be in place ahead of the front. Isolated convection
cold pose a risk for strong wind gusts. Across southeast
NM/southwest TX, a few storms could also produce hail. Weak
large-scale ascent and convection becoming undercut by the surface
boundary will limit overall severe potential.
..Marsh.. 06/13/2026
Read more
SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook CORR 1
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0241 PM CDT Sat Jun 13 2026
Valid 151200Z - 161200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SOUTHERN ROCKIES
INTO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE...
CORRECTED FOR CAPITALIZATION OF PANHANDLE
...SUMMARY...
Scattered thunderstorms over the southern Rockies may result in some
severe potential as they move southeast during the afternoon and
evening. Elsewhere, scattered thunderstorms are possible from the
Gulf Coast states to the Carolinas, and across the northern
Plains/Upper Midwest.
... Synopsis ...
Broad mid-level troughing will persist across the eastern half of
the US on Monday, downstream of a broad mid-level ridge across the
eastern Pacific. A short-wave trough will dive southeast into the
north-central US, embedded within the larger-scale northwest flow.
At the surface, a remnant front will be draped across the northern
Gulf Coast states, stretching from the southern Rockies east to the
Atlantic. Farther north, a second cold front associated with the
aforementioned north-central short-wave trough will push southeast
into the central Plains and Upper Midwest.
... Southern Rockies into the Texas Panhandle ...
Weak low-level upslope beneath northwesterly mid-level flow will
support isolated to scattered thunderstorms developing across the
higher terrain of the southern Rockies. CAPE around 1000-1500 J/kg
and effective-layer shear around 30 knots will support some
potential for thunderstorms organizing into a southeast-moving MCS
capable of producing isolated damaging winds.
... Northern Gulf Coast States ...
Rich boundary layer moisture will be present south of the
sagging/stationary frontal boundary. Diurnal heating of this airmass
should support thunderstorm development. This area will be well
south of the better mid-level flow thus organized severe potential
should remain fairly limited. That said, high precipitable water
values and the number of storms across the region may support an
isolated damaging wind gust. Overall coverage looks to remain less
than 5%.
... Northern/Central Plains ...
Although low-level moisture will be quite scant across the area,
strong mid-upper-level forcing associated with the vorticity maximum
moving across the area along with steepening lapse rates may support
isolated high-based thunderstorm development. Gusty winds would be
possible with any intense updraft, although this should remain
fairly isolated and at this time does not warrant unconditional
severe probabilities.
..Marsh.. 06/13/2026
Read more
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1137 AM CDT Sat Jun 13 2026
Valid 131700Z - 141200Z
...Morning Update...
Slight adjustments were made to the Dry Thunderstorm risk area based
on updated guidance. Surface observations across the Colorado
Plateau depict widespread RH values of 5-20%, owing to poor
overnight humidity recoveries across the Four Corners and central
Rockies. Mid/high-level water vapor satellite imagery portray
sufficient moisture surging northeastward from the Sonora and Baja
regions. Morning cloud cover over the Four Corners may inhibit
thunderstorm coverage this afternoon, however any isolated storms
that do materialize will remain elevated with little precipitation
efficiency. The 00z FGZ upper air sounding sampled 0.72" PWAT, which
is right at the 90th percentile of climatology. At 12z, the PHX
sounding sampled 1.23" PWAT, above the 90th percentile climatology
(and breaking the previous daily max of 1.08"). These observations
are on track with satellite derived total PWAT, with the highest
values (1" or greater) along/south of the Central Highlands where
the dry-to-wet thunderstorm transition likely exists. Some lightning
ignitions are possible this afternoon across portions the Great
Basin and western New Mexico, and erratic winds gusting to 30-35 mph
may exacerbate any new/ongoing wildfires (such as the Bear Fire in
western NM).
..Elizalde-Garcia.. 06/13/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0111 AM CDT Sat Jun 13 2026/
...Synopsis...
Isolated dry thunderstorms are forecast from the Four Corners region
into parts of the Great Basin during the afternoon as deep boundary
layer mixing with meager moisture content results in deep inverted-V
profiles across the area. Precipitable water content of 0.5-0.75 in
and tall LCLs exceeding 3.5 km will significantly reduce
precipitation efficiency, and with ERCs in the 90th-98th percentile
ranges, lightning ignitions will be a concern. Precipitable water
content increases to 1.0-1.25 in with southward extent, suggesting
the dividing line between wet/dry thunderstorms will be somewhere in
the central portions of Arizona and New Mexico. While the exact
details of where the dry-to-wet thunderstorm transition will set up
remains unclear, some lightning ignitions may be supported on the
periphery of more precipitation efficient downdrafts as well.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0155 PM CDT Sat Jun 13 2026
Valid 141200Z - 151200Z
Slight adjustments were made to the Dry Thunderstorm risk area based
on updated forecast guidance. Further spatial modifications remain
likely in the upcoming outlook cycle depending on how much
precipitation occurs over the forecast region on Day 1/Saturday. Any
new/ongoing wildfires (such as the Bear Fire in western NM) may be
impacted by erratic wind gusts of up to 35 mph.
Across northern Minnesota/Wisconsin and the Michigan Upper
Peninsula, sustained northwesterly winds of 10-15 mph will combine
with 25-35% RH for a few afternoon hours on Day 2/Sunday. Recent
rainfall, sparse fuels, and limited duration of fire weather
conditions currently preclude the introduction of broader Elevated
highlights. However, localized fire concerns may emerge where
pockets of dry fuels exist.
See the previous discussion for more information.
..Elizalde-Garcia.. 06/13/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0112 AM CDT Sat Jun 13 2026/
...Synopsis...
Isolated dry thunderstorms are forecast from the Four Corners into
the Great Basin Sunday afternoon on the periphery of a mid-level
ridge centered over Mexico. Precipitable water content of 0.5-0.75
inches combined with deep inverted-V boundary layer profiles and
LCL-EL mean wind speeds exceeding 20 kts will result in low
downdraft precipitation efficiency. Combined with critically
receptive fuels and minimal prior-day precipitation, lightning-based
ignitions will pose a concern.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
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