RSS Mesoscale Discussions from Storm Prediction Center
WW 193 SEVERE TSTM TX 090205Z - 090700Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 193
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
905 PM CDT Fri May 8 2026
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of
North Texas
* Effective this Friday night and Saturday morning from 905 PM
until 200 AM CDT.
* Primary threats include...
Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2
inches in diameter possible
Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible
A tornado or two possible
SUMMARY...A cluster of severe storms currently across far southern
Oklahoma will continue to spread south-southeastward into North
Texas through late evening and the early overnight, with additional
development eastward toward northeast Texas.
The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 30
statute miles north and south of a line from 115 miles west of
Sherman TX to 45 miles east southeast of Sherman TX. For a complete
depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update
(WOUS64 KWNS WOU3).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.
&&
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 192...
AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A
few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 550. Mean storm motion vector
31025.
...Guyer
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WW 192 SEVERE TSTM KS OK TX 081950Z - 090300Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 192
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
250 PM CDT Fri May 8 2026
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of
Southeast Kansas
Much of Oklahoma
Western North Texas
* Effective this Friday afternoon and evening from 250 PM until
1000 PM CDT.
* Primary threats include...
Scattered large hail likely with isolated very large hail events
to 2 inches in diameter possible
Scattered damaging winds and isolated significant gusts to 75
mph possible
SUMMARY...Scattered severe thunderstorms are forecast to develop
this afternoon. The stronger storms will likely evolve into
supercells capable of a risk for large hail (mainly 1 to 2 inches in
diameter) and severe gusts. Upscale growth into a band of storms is
expected by this evening with the risk for severe gusts expected to
increase. Peak gusts with the stronger outflow surges will probably
range 60 to 75 mph.
The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 95
statute miles east and west of a line from 40 miles north northeast
of Bartlesville OK to 20 miles south southeast of Wichita Falls TX.
For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch
outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU2).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.
&&
AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 65 knots. A
few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 450. Mean storm motion vector
30025.
...Smith
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WW 0193 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0193 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET
Read more
WW 0192 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 192
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SW LTS TO
25 NNW ADM TO 25 ENE CQB TO 10 E TUL TO 20 ESE GMJ.
..THORNTON..05/09/26
ATTN...WFO...ICT...SGF...OUN...TSA...
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 192
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ARC033-047-131-090240-
AR
. ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CRAWFORD FRANKLIN SEBASTIAN
OKC001-005-013-019-021-029-031-033-049-061-063-067-069-085-091-
095-099-101-107-111-121-123-135-137-141-145-090240-
OK
. OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ADAIR ATOKA BRYAN
CARTER CHEROKEE COAL
COMANCHE COTTON GARVIN
HASKELL HUGHES JEFFERSON
JOHNSTON LOVE MCINTOSH
MARSHALL MURRAY MUSKOGEE
OKFUSKEE OKMULGEE PITTSBURG
PONTOTOC SEQUOYAH STEPHENS
TILLMAN WAGONER
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MD 0677 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR WESTERN ARKANSAS
Mesoscale Discussion 0677
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0935 PM CDT Fri May 08 2026
Areas affected...western Arkansas
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 090235Z - 090400Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent
SUMMARY...Storms along and south of the I-40 corridor in western
Arkansas may pose downstream wind and hail risk.
DISCUSSION...A cluster of thunderstorms continues to move eastward
across portions of western Arkansas near the I-40 corridor in
Sebastian and Crawford counties producing occasional reports of hail
1-1.75 inches. As this moves further east, it will enter into less
favorable air through time. For now, the cold pool remains strong
and some downstream propagation may continue into western Arkansas
with occasional stronger gusts and large hail. A watch is unlikely
to be needed given uncertainty in the longevity of this threat.
..Thornton.. 05/09/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...TSA...
LAT...LON 35209530 35549453 35669401 35679356 35619326 35549306
35239290 34899314 34609353 34319405 34359475 34669504
35209530
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN
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MD 0676 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR NORTHEAST TEXAS...SOUTHERN ARKANSAS...AND NORTHWEST LOUISIANA
Mesoscale Discussion 0676
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0919 PM CDT Fri May 08 2026
Areas affected...Northeast Texas...southern Arkansas...and northwest
Louisiana
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 090219Z - 090415Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent
SUMMARY...The stronger storms will pose a risk of isolated severe
hail and eventually locally damaging wind gusts. A watch is not
expected in the near term, though trends are being monitored.
DISCUSSION...A west/east-oriented band of elevated thunderstorms is
evolving from far northeast TX into southern AR, mostly aided by
weak low-level warm advection. The SHV 00Z sounding showed around 7
C/km midlevel lapse rates atop a relatively dry/stable boundary
layer, which is yielding around 1000 J/kg MUCAPE. This elevated
buoyancy, coupled with a long/mostly straight hodograph (around 40
kt of effective shear), may promote a couple loosely organized cells
capable of producing severe hail -- especially in the near term.
With time, an increase in positive low-level theta-e advection is
expected in response to a passing midlevel trough to the north of
the area. High-resolution guidance continues to suggest that this
will result in an increase in storm coverage over the next several
hours. While this activity may gradually congeal into a loosely
organized cluster and root in the moistening boundary layer (posing
an increasing damaging-wind risk), fairly nebulous/unfocused forcing
for ascent limits confidence in this scenario. Therefore, a watch is
not currently expected in the near term, though convective and
environmental trends are being monitored.
..Weinman/Guyer.. 05/09/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...JAN...LZK...SHV...FWD...
LAT...LON 33009560 33389540 33619498 33839429 33869336 33749273
33369197 32959189 32479213 32199279 32109432 32219513
32409554 32739570 33009560
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN
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SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0753 PM CDT Fri May 08 2026
Valid 090100Z - 091200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN SOUTHERN AND
EASTERN OK INTO NORTH TEXAS...
...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe storms capable of large hail and severe gusts are
expected to continue this evening into tonight across southern and
eastern Oklahoma into north Texas. Isolated occurrences of large
hail and damaging winds are possible across the Ozarks, south Texas,
and the ArkLaTex across the Gulf Coast states.
...OK into north TX...
As of 0030z, three distinct clusters of severe storms (with embedded
supercell structures) are ongoing near and to the south of I-44 in
OK, with recent reports of hail up to 2.50-2.75". The 00z OUN
sounding sampled the inflow air mass to the ongoing storms with
steep low/mid-level lapse rates supporting moderate instability with
around 50 kt of deep-layer shear. The ongoing storms are expected to
continue southeast, with a sub-set of the current activity
potentially moving into north TX by 03z. Large hail will remain the
predominant hazard, with the damaging wind threat being more
conditional on the development of an organized cold pool. For
additional, short-term guidance, see the recently issued MCD 675.
...ArkLaTex to north Florida...
As of 00z, widely scattered thunderstorms are ongoing across far
south GA and north FL in the vicinity of a stalled front. The air
mass to the south of the front remains moderately unstable with
estimated MLCAPE of 1000-2000 J/kg. The current KJAX VWP is sampling
around 50 kt of effective bulk shear, which coupled with the
instability will remain supportive of locally strong wind gusts and
perhaps some marginally severe hail for the next couple of hours.
Elsewhere, isolated storms are ongoing across parts of the Sabine
River Valley, aided by a low-level warm advection regime, per
regional VWPs. Short-term model guidance suggests that storms will
increase in areal coverage over the next several hours in the
ArkLaTex vicinity as the region is glanced by a short-wave trough
passing to the immediate north. Gradual upscale growth into a
forward-propagating QLCS appears possible, with the system moving
into central and southern parts of LA and MS by 12z Saturday.
Initial storms are likely to be somewhat elevated. However, with
time the storms may become more progressively rooted within a
moistening boundary layer returning north through the region.
Generally weak lapse rates are expected to limit severe-weather
coverage and intensity, with isolated occurrences of large hail and
damaging winds appearing possible.
...South TX...
A short-wave trough over southwest TX into Chihuahua, Mexico this
evening will continue east tonight with downstream height
falls/forcing for ascent progressively overspreading south TX.
Visible satellite and mosaic radar data indicate gradually
increasing convection across the high terrain of northeast Mexico,
and there is some signal in model guidance that isolated storms
could cross the Rio Grande into south TX overnight. The 00z DRT
sounding sampled a fairly strong cap centered around 1.5 km AGL,
which may initially prohibit storm development. With time, dynamic
cooling aloft may be sufficient for isolated storms to move into the
region with an attendant large hail and damaging wind threat.
..Mead.. 05/09/2026
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