RSS Mesoscale Discussions from Storm Prediction Center
No watches are valid as of Mon Dec 1 17:50:02 UTC 2025.
No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Mon Dec 1 17:50:02 UTC 2025.
SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1000 AM CST Mon Dec 01 2025
Valid 011630Z - 021200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
LATE TONIGHT ACROSS COASTAL PORTIONS OF ALABAMA AND THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe storms are possible across coastal portions of
Alabama and the Florida Panhandle late tonight into early Tuesday
morning.
...Gulf Coast...
A large-scale upper trough oriented from the Upper Midwest to the
southern High Plains late this morning will continue eastward
through the period, becoming positioned from the Great Lakes to the
Lower MS Valley by Tuesday morning. Another weaker mid/upper
shortwave located over the northwest Gulf will lift northeast across
the central/eastern Gulf coast vicinity while merging with the
aforementioned synoptic-scale trough. As this occurs, a broad area
of stronger south/southwesterly low to midlevel flow will overspread
the Gulf coast/Southeast. This warm advection regime will allow low
to mid 60s F dewpoints to impinge on immediate coastal areas in AL
and the FL Panhandle ahead of an eastward advancing cold front late
tonight.
Within the warm frontal zone, modest surface-based instability
should develop after 06z. Forecast soundings indicate supercell wind
profiles will be present. However, poor lapse rates and SBCAPE
generally less than 750 J/kg will limit updraft intensity. Storms
moving inland from the Gulf also will have limited area before
becoming elevated to the cool side of the warm front. Nevertheless,
transient supercells could produce a tornado or two, and/or
localized strong gusts, early Tuesday morning. The risk may continue
north and east into portions of northern FL on Tuesday morning at
the beginning of the Day 2 period (see Day 2 Convective Outlook for
more details).
Additional isolated elevated thunderstorms will be possible from the
TX coastal Plain into portions of the Lower MS Valley today. This
activity is occurring within persistent, broad large-scale ascent
and midlevel warm advection atop a cooler/drier boundary-layer.
Severe storms are not expected with this activity.
...Coastal Carolinas...
A prior cold frontal passage and cold air damming across the
Piedmont will generally keep 60s F dewpoints offshore through the
period. Some guidance does bring a sliver of better boundary layer
moisture along the immediate coast/Outer Banks vicinity the last
couple hours of the period. However, any appreciable instability and
stronger convection is expected to remain offshore through 12z
Tuesday.
..Leitman.. 12/01/2025
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SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1126 AM CST Mon Dec 01 2025
Valid 021200Z - 031200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...
...SUMMARY...
Scattered thunderstorms are expected Tuesday across the Southeast to
the Atlantic Coastline. A damaging gust or brief tornado are
possible mainly Tuesday morning along the Florida Panhandle.
...FL Gulf Coast...
A broad upper trough over the eastern US will intensify as it moves
eastward early Tuesday. As ascent from the upper trough overspreads
the Southeastern CONUS, an initially modest surface trough along a
stalled frontal zone will rapidly deepen and organize into a strong
coastal low, moving from the FL Gulf Coast to the Carolinas by early
Wednesday. The front will sharpen and surge south behind the low and
upper trough as high pressure and strong cold advection develop over
the eastern half of the US.
Early in the day, southerly low level-winds ahead of the front and
deepening low will allow for modest northward return of modified
Gulf moisture over parts of FL and far southern GA. Despite a
relatively cool boundary-layer limiting the northward advance of the
more moist air mass, weak destabilization is expected for the first
few hours of the period. Isolated strong to occasionally severe
thunderstorms may move onshore across the FL Panhandle/Big bend
region before spreading northeastward across the northern Peninsula.
Despite modest mid-level lapse rates, around 500 J/kg MLCAPE may
overlap with large low-level hodographs and strong deep-layer shear
favorable for transient supercells/line segments capable of isolated
damaging gusts or perhaps a brief tornado. The severe threat should
end by midday as surface winds veer and the front accelerates
offshore.
...Outer Banks...
As the upper trough and surface low intensify and shift eastward,
the front will gradually move toward the coast with an increasingly
narrow warm sector. Numerous thunderstorms are expected in the
near-shore waters early Tuesday into the evening hours. While most
model soundings show cool and stable conditions near the surface, a
brief window could exist for a storm to move onshore from late
Tuesday morning into the early afternoon. Neutral stability at the
surface amid very strong low-level warm advection could allow for a
brief tornado given supercell wind profiles. However, buoyancy will
be very weak and any risk will be constrained to the immediate
coast. Thus, while a brief tornado cannot be ruled out, the
short-lived severe risk appears very limited before the low and
trailing front move offshore in the afternoon.
..Lyons.. 12/01/2025
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SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1031 AM CST Mon Dec 01 2025
Valid 011700Z - 021200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
...Southern California...
Current surface observations depict an ongoing offshore wind event
within favored terrain/gaps across portions of southern CA. Wind
gusts of 35-45 mph from the east-northeast are expected to diminish
later this afternoon as the offshore pressure gradient begins to
wane. In addition, fuels remain largely unfavorable for wildfire
spread and will further mitigate overall fire weather impacts.
..Williams.. 12/01/2025
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0133 AM CST Mon Dec 01 2025/
...Synopsis...
On the backside of a positively tilted midlevel trough departing the
Rockies, surface high pressure will build over the Great
Basin/Intermountain West. This will yield an enhanced offshore
pressure gradient across southern CA, where moderate midlevel
northerly flow will be in place on the backside of the trough. These
factors will contribute to dry/breezy east-northeasterly surface
winds across the typical wind-prone mountains/valleys of Ventura and
Los Angeles Counties. While locally elevated conditions are
possible, marginal fuels should tend to limit the overall risk.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
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