RSS Mesoscale Discussions from Storm Prediction Center
No watches are valid as of Thu Dec 11 17:03:01 UTC 2025.
No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Thu Dec 11 17:03:01 UTC 2025.
SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0648 AM CST Thu Dec 11 2025
Valid 111300Z - 121200Z
...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are not forecast through tonight.
...Synopsis and Discussion...
Surface high pressure and offshore flow will be maintained today
across much of TX and the Southeast as an upper trough/low advances
east-northeastward across New England into Canada. With cool and/or
stable conditions expected across a large majority of the CONUS,
thunderstorms are not expected through tonight.
..Gleason/Lyons.. 12/11/2025
Read more
SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1012 AM CST Thu Dec 11 2025
Valid 111630Z - 121200Z
...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are not forecast through tonight.
...Discussion...
A broad midlevel trough will move off the Eastern Seaboard today,
while surface high pressure shifts eastward across the Southeast.
Farther west, a weak surface low and accompanying cold front will
advance eastward from the central Plains to the Mid MS Valley.
Dry/stable conditions ahead of/behind the front will limit
thunderstorm potential across the CONUS.
..Weinman.. 12/11/2025
Read more
SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1056 AM CST Thu Dec 11 2025
Valid 121200Z - 131200Z
...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
The risk for thunderstorms appears negligible across much of the
U.S. Friday through Friday night.
...Synopsis...
An upper ridge will persist near the Pacific coast while broad upper
troughing continues across the eastern U.S. Stronger flow aloft will
be displaced from the only appreciable, albeit modest, moisture
along the Texas coastal plain. A surface low over the OH/TN Valleys
will shift east toward the Mid-Atlantic late in the period, allowing
a weak cold front to develop south toward the western and central
Gulf coasts. Some thunderstorm activity could develop late in the
period over the western Gulf waters as a weak shortwave impulse
moves across northeast Mexico. However, thunderstorm activity is
expected to remain offshore, precluding 10 percent general thunder
probabilities.
..Leitman.. 12/11/2025
Read more
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1101 AM CST Thu Dec 11 2025
Valid 111700Z - 121200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
Locally elevated to locally critical winds/RH remain expected today
in portions of eastern Colorado and southeast Wyoming. Some of those
conditions already occurring at several stations along/east of the
Front Range in Colorado into southeast Wyoming. 100/1000-hour fuels
remain near to slightly above normal values and likely partly to
mostly cloudy conditions may limit the receptiveness of 1/10-hour
fuels. However, given the strength of the winds (gusts of 30-60
mph), fires in fine fuels cannot be ruled out.
..Nauslar.. 12/11/2025
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1135 PM CST Wed Dec 10 2025/
...Synopsis...
Fire weather concerns are expected to remain low today. The pattern
will favor high amplitude ridging across the western US and
troughing across the eastern US. Westerly flow across the northern
Rockies and surface troughing across the Plains will allow for some
overlap of downslope flow with dry conditions across the central and
southern High Plains. Across eastern Colorado into southeastern
Wyoming, west-northwest sustained winds of 15-30 mph will overlap
minimum RH of 15-30%. Across west Texas into central Oklahoma, areas
of overlap of southwest sustained winds of 10-20 mph and minimum RH
of 15-25% will be possible. Fuels across both of these regions
remain marginal and are not receptive to large fire spread, which
will preclude inclusion of any areas at this time.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
|
