RSS Mesoscale Discussions from Storm Prediction Center
No watches are valid as of Sun Apr 19 07:29:01 UTC 2026.
No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Sun Apr 19 07:29:01 UTC 2026.
SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1217 AM CDT Sun Apr 19 2026
Valid 191200Z - 201200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not forecast today.
...Synopsis...
A large upper trough extending from the Great Lakes into the OH and
TN Valleys will move into the northeastern US today, with a weak
upper ridge across the Rockies. This pattern will favor high
pressure over the central and eastern states, stable conditions and
minimal thunderstorm activity. A cold front associated the eastern
trough will be well off the East Coast by midday, with drying
offshore flow. Minimal instability may yield isolated thunderstorms
over eastern Florida, or perhaps across the Rio Grande Valley where
elevated moisture and weak instability will remain atop the surface
cool layer. In any case, severe storms are not forecast.
..Jewell/Moore.. 04/19/2026
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SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1246 AM CDT Sun Apr 19 2026
Valid 201200Z - 211200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Severe storms are not expected on Monday.
... Synopsis ...
A midlevel trough will progress from the Northeast off the New
England coast on Monday, while the trailing cold front continues
southward into the Caribbean Sea. In the wake of this system, high
pressure and a relatively dry airmass will limit thunderstorm
potential across much of the CONUS.
... South Florida ...
North of the aforementioned front, diurnal heating of a moist
post-frontal airmass characterized by dewpoints in the mid-60s
should support isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms. Weak
buoyancy and a lack of significant large-scale ascent should
preclude any severe threat.
... Southwest into Texas ...
Farther west, a subtle, low-amplitude midlevel wave moving into
South Texas, combined with weak low-level warm advection and modest
moisture return will support a few rounds of isolated thunderstorms
across Southwest Texas into Central Texas.
Additionally, isolated diurnal thunderstorms are possible across the
Southwest as midlevel moisture impinges on the region. This activity
is expected to remain focused over the higher terrain, and given the
weak instability and modest forcing, severe weather is not expected.
..Marsh.. 04/19/2026
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SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0227 AM CDT Sun Apr 19 2026
Valid 211200Z - 221200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms will be possible across the western CONUS, the
south-central CONUS, and the southern Great Lakes. No severe weather
is anticipated.
... Synopsis ...
A large-scale midlevel trough will move push inland across the
western CONUS into the Great Basin on Wednesday, with downstream
ridging building across the central CONUS in response. Across the
Northeast, northwest flow aloft will prevail downstream of the
central CONUS ridge. An embedded jet streak and associated vorticity
maximum within the northwest flow will aid driving a weak surface
low and attendant frontal boundary southeast across the Great Lakes
through the forecast period. Meanwhile, the surface ridge across the
Southeast will move east, just offshore of the Southeast Atlantic
Coast, promoting return flow across the Plains. The return flow will
be aided by the development of lee troughing across much of the High
Plains.
... Western US ...
Scattered showers are expected across portions of the West in
association with the inland-moving large-scale trough. Seasonably
cool midlevel temperatures will support enough instability for a few
thunderstorms, although severe potential is very low.
... South-central US ...
Showers and thunderstorms will be possible across the region within
the return flow regime. Here, weak warm-air advection combined with
between 500-1000 J/kg of MUCAPE will support convective development.
Weak vertical shear and the lack of strong forcing for ascent should
limit any severe potential.
... Southern Great Lakes ...
Scattered showers a few thunderstorms will be possible within the
surface frontal zone as it pushes south/southeast during the day.
Instability around 500 J/kg MUCAPE and weak effective layer shear
should preclude a more robust severe weather event, but a strong
wind gust or two may be possible.
..Marsh.. 04/19/2026
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SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0158 AM CDT Sun Apr 19 2026
Valid 191200Z - 201200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH
PLAINS...
...Synopsis...
Elevated to critical fire weather conditions are expected this
afternoon across portions of the southern and central High Plains as
well as across parts of the Southeast. Both fire weather regimes
will be influenced by building surface high pressure in the wake of
a cold front pushing into the northern Gulf and southeast Atlantic
coast.
...Central/Southern High Plains...
Building surface high pressure is noted across the southern Plains
with very dry conditions (dewpoints in the teens to single digits)
observed across western TX into western KS. Southwest winds are
forecast to strengthen to 15-25 mph on the western periphery of the
surface high this afternoon as a dry return flow regime becomes
established. Mostly sunny skies coupled with very low boundary-layer
moisture will support deep mixing and RH minimums in the single
digits to low teens. Critical fire weather conditions remain likely
across the TX/OK Panhandles into southwest KS where gusts up to 30
mph appear likely. Given recent fire activity across northwest TX,
the fuel environment will support the fire weather threat.
...Southeast States...
06 UTC surface observations depict a cold front pushing eastward
across the Southeast. Although scattered showers accompany this
front, latest forecast depicts low probability for wetting rainfall
across northern FL into central GA and SC, which will likely be
insufficient to mitigate ERC values well above the 95th percentile.
In the wake of the cold front, west/northwest winds will prevail
across much of the region. A combination of dry air advection and
downslope flow off the southern Appalachians will contribute to
widespread 15-25% RH minimums. Elevated to locally critical fire
weather conditions should become fairly widespread as winds increase
into the 15-20 mph with localized gusts upwards of 25-30 mph.
..Moore.. 04/19/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
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SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0204 AM CDT Sun Apr 19 2026
Valid 201200Z - 211200Z
...Synopsis...
Areas of elevated fire weather conditions are expected across parts
of the High Plains and the Southeast on Monday. Upper-level ridging
will gradually shift east from the Rockies into the Plains through
the day. While surface high pressure shifts east over the Southeast
states, a lee trough will deepen along the northern High Plains,
resulting in areas of breezy conditions over dry fuels.
...High Plains...
A deepening lee trough along the northern High Plains will support
strengthening west/southwest winds to the west of the trough axis
across eastern WY into western NE. Further south, a tightening
pressure gradient in proximity to a lingering surface high over
eastern TX will promote strengthening winds across the OK/TX
Panhandle region. Within both regimes, ensemble guidance suggests
sustained winds between 15-20 mph are likely. RH minimums in the
teens are likely across WY into NE where downslope wind will depress
moisture content within an antecedent dry air mass. Further south,
the northern fringe of returning moisture will begin nosing into
western TX. This may limit RH reductions to some degree, but RH
minimums will likely fall into at least the low 20s given model
guidance tendency to display a moist bias at the surface within the
early stages of moisture return.
...Southeast...
A dry air mass will reside across much of the Southeast where fuels
will likely remain dry owing to limited rainfall forecast over the
next 24-48 hours for much of the region. In general, gradient winds
will weaken through the day as surface high pressure builds across
the region. However, areas of breezy conditions will likely persist
in the lee of the southern Appalachians and along the northeastern
Gulf coast. Sustained winds near 15 mph within a dry air mass (RH
minimums in the teens to twenties) will likely support another day
of elevated fire weather conditions.
...New Mexico to eastern Arizona...
Low to mid-level moisture return is anticipated across southern TX
and into central NM through Monday afternoon. Although forcing for
ascent will be modest under an upper-level ridge, a combination of
localized orographic ascent and deeply mixed boundary-layers with
minimal inhibition will support isolated thunderstorm development.
Storm motions around 10 knots will likely support pockets of wetting
precipitation, but PWAT values between 0.6 to 0.7 inches will likely
support dry lightning strikes outside of the heavier precipitation
cores. With regional ERCs near the 75th to 80th percentile,
lightning ignitions appear possible.
..Moore.. 04/19/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
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