RSS Mesoscale Discussions from Storm Prediction Center
No watches are valid as of Sat Feb 21 00:29:01 UTC 2026.
MD 0108 CONCERNING HEAVY SNOW FOR NORTHEAST NY INTO VT/NH/SOUTHERN ME
Mesoscale Discussion 0108
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0342 PM CST Fri Feb 20 2026
Areas affected...Northeast NY into VT/NH/southern ME
Concerning...Heavy snow
Valid 202142Z - 210215Z
SUMMARY...Occasional moderate to locally heavy snow rates are
possible into this evening.
DISCUSSION...Sporadic moderate to locally heavy snow is ongoing late
this afternoon from parts of northeast NY into VT/NH. Favorable deep
ascent downstream of a midlevel cyclone over lower MI will allow the
extensive precipitation shield to spread northeastward into this
evening across parts of northern NY and New England. In addition, an
embedded shortwave trough that is currently producing shallow
convection across western NY may help to enhance precipitation rates
for a time this evening.
Low-level temperatures remain relatively warm across parts of New
England, but continued ascent and evaporative cooling should help to
maintain snow as the primary precipitation type from northern NY
into much of VT/NH. Substantial cooling aloft is also expected from
west to east this evening, which could lead to an increase in
snow-to-liquid ratios prior to cessation of the heavier
precipitation rates. Farther east, gradually backing surface winds
in response to a deepening cyclone off of the southern New England
coast will eventually lead to low-level cold advection across areas
of southern ME that are currently above freezing.
Occasional moderate to locally heavy snow rates are expected to
continue and expand into a larger portion of northern NY into VT/NH
and southern ME this evening, before an anticipated weakening trend
near/after 03Z as the stronger ascent begins to wane and shift
offshore.
..Dean.. 02/20/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...GYX...BTV...ALY...
LAT...LON 43547302 43717453 44137493 44597502 45007488 44967303
44817150 44246991 43627003 43307033 43257071 43387163
43547302
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SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0201 PM CST Fri Feb 20 2026
Valid 202000Z - 211200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
A few damaging gusts are possible across eastern North Carolina this
afternoon.
...20z Update...
The Marginal Risk across North Carolina was removed with this
update. Convection is moving offshore this hour, with minimal
development expected through the rest of the afternoon.
See previous discussion for more information on potential for
thunderstorm development overnight across MS/AL/GA.
..Thornton.. 02/20/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1027 AM CST Fri Feb 20 2026/
...Synopsis and Discussion...
Recent satellite imagery shows several cyclones and shortwave
troughs within the upper pattern across the CONUS this morning. The
most prominent is the cyclone currently over the southern Lake
Michigan vicinity. Surface analysis places the surface low
associated with system in the same location, revealing the stacked
and mature character of this system. An occluded front extends
southeastward from this low across southern Lower MI into northwest
PA before arcing more southward across western PA, central WV, and
far western VA. Here it intersects the stationary wedge front over
far northeast NC before transitioning to a cold front and continuing
southwestward/west-southwestward through Southeast states.
...Carolinas into the Southeast...
General expectation is for the northern portion of this cold front
to continue eastward/southeastward throughout the day as its parent
cyclone shifts eastward as well. This will take the front off the
Mid-Atlantic Coast later tonight. Isolated thunderstorms are
anticipated along and ahead of this front across the eastern
Carolinas. Despite favorable low-level moisture (i.e. dewpoints in
mid 60s), warm temperatures aloft will mitigate the overall
buoyancy, likely tempering updraft strength and persistence. Even
so, the moderate to strong deep-layer western flow may still support
a few damaging gusts, particularly across northeast NC where some
additional lift may be provided by interaction with the stationary
wedge front.
Farther south, the front is expected to stall later this
afternoon/evening from southern GA west-southwestward into southern
LA. Some strengthening of the low-level flow is anticipated in the
vicinity of this boundary ahead of another shortwave progressing
eastward across the central Plains. Resulting warm-air advection
amid the modestly moist and buoyant environment will foster isolated
to widely scattered thunderstorm development overnight. Moderate to
strong mid to upper-level southwesterlies will be in place,
supporting sufficient vertical shear for organized updrafts.
However, thermodynamic profiles should be relatively warm, limiting
buoyancy and likely tempering the overall severe potential. While a
couple of strong storms could occur tonight, current thinking
remains that the potential for severe storms should remain
low/conditional.
...Northwest PA and Southwestern NY...
Low-topped convection is anticipated along the occluded front across
northwest PA and western NY this afternoon. This convection may not
even be deep enough for lightning but a few stronger, convectively
aided gusts are possible.
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SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook CORR 1
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0419 PM CST Fri Feb 20 2026
Valid 221200Z - 281200Z
CORRECTED FOR TEXT ERROR
...Synopsis...
Mid-level flow will amplify D3/Sunday as a trough deepens over the
far Southeastern US and Atlantic Coast. Widespread rainfall across
much of the Southeast should temporarily alleviate fire weather
concerns over the weekend. Rainfall should be limited farther south
across the Gulf Coast and FL, with particular concern for FL where
dry-post frontal northerly flow could increase the fire weather
threat for Day 3/Sunday and Day 4/Monday. The upper ridge will begin
to break down D5/Tuesday, introducing dry return flow and downslope
winds across the Central and Southern Plains, potentially increasing
fire weather concerns through the extended period.
...Day 3/Sunday and Day 4/Monday - Florida and Southern Plains...
Deep layer northwesterly flow develops across the Southeast and FL
behind a surface cold front underlying an amplifying upper-level
trough across the Northeast. Widespread wetting rainfall from Day
3/Sunday is expected to remain north of the Gulf Coast, with minimal
precipitation across FL. A mostly dry cold front will pass through
the northern FL peninsula late morning D3/Sunday bringing post
frontal northwesterly surface winds of 15-20 mph and low RH of 20-30
percent. Coincident dry fuels should increase the fire weather
threat for a few afternoon hours where 40% Critical probabilities
have been maintained.
As the upper-level trough deepens on D4/Monday, dry northwesterly
flow is expected to continue with poor overnight RH recovery. 40%
Critical probabilities have been expanded to northern FL where
strong winds and critically low minimum RH will overlap dry fuels.
While minimal rainfall is expected on D3/Sunday, uncertainty in
amount and extent precludes the introduction of 70% probabilities
for now.
Cooler dry return flow will enter the Southern Plains on D3/Sunday
and D4/Monday. This will allow for continued drying of the
fuelscape, setting the stage for increased fire weather concerns on
D5/Tuesday.
...Day 5/Tuesday - Central and Southern Plains...
Fire weather concerns reemerge across portions of the central and
southern High Plains via dry return flow and increasing westerly
winds aloft as the upper-level ridge across the Intermountain West
starts to break down. 40% critical probabilities have been added
where a combination of low RH and strong westerly winds overlap dry
fuels in eastern NM and the TX Panhandle. Beneath the upper-level
ridge a surface low will emerge in the lee of the Laramie Range,
tightening a surface pressure gradient across eastern WY and western
NE. Very strong downslope winds may occur, though cooler
temperatures and RH uncertainties have limited the introduction of
70% Critical probabilities for now.
...Day 6/Wednesday - West Texas...
40% Critical probabilities have been maintained across the West TX
region as long-range models are hinting at hot, dry, and windy
conditions atop dry fuels. Increasing northwest flow aloft and
induced surface lee troughing will support increased fire weather
concerns.
...Day 7/Thursday - D8/Friday...
Uncertainty is too high for the extended period to introduce
probabilities for Critical conditions. Nevertheless, as the
upper-ridge flattens and multiple short-wave impulses cross central
CONUS, the pattern may suggest an ongoing fire weather threat
through the forecast period.
..Elizalde-Garcia/Elliott.. 02/20/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
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