RSS Mesoscale Discussions from Storm Prediction Center
No watches are valid as of Tue Apr 7 20:57:02 UTC 2026.
No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Tue Apr 7 20:57:02 UTC 2026.
SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1120 AM CDT Tue Apr 07 2026
Valid 071630Z - 081200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated to potentially scattered thunderstorms should occur today
across parts of the central/southern Florida Peninsula,
southern/central Rockies/High Plains, and northern High Plains.
Organized severe thunderstorm potential appears low.
...Synopsis and Discussion...
A mid-level shortwave trough will move east-southeastward today from
British Columbia/Alberta to the northern Rockies/High Plains. Strong
mid-level winds will accompany this shortwave trough, and a
deep/well-mixed boundary layer is expected to develop across parts
of eastern MT and vicinity by this afternoon with diurnal heating.
However, low-level moisture will remain quite limited, with surface
dewpoints currently in the 20s to mid 30s across the northern High
Plains. This will hinder the development of any more than weak
MLCAPE by mid to late afternoon, although high-based convection
capable of producing occasional lightning flashes and strong/gusty
winds may occur. Given expectations for moisture and related
instability to remain quite meager, have not included low severe
wind probabilities across the northern High Plains with this update.
A weak mid-level shortwave trough will continue to advance eastward
across the FL Peninsula through the afternoon. Isolated to perhaps
scattered thunderstorms remain possible, mainly across parts of
south FL along and south of a convectively reinforced front. Prior
convection and ongoing cloud cover across the central/southern FL
Peninsula will probably hinder more robust diurnal heating this
afternoon. Still, locally gusty downdraft winds and small hail may
occur with the stronger cores that can develop, before convection
eventually focuses offshore by this evening.
Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms also appear possible
across parts of the southern/central Rockies and adjacent High
Plains through this evening, but weak instability across these
regions are expected to preclude severe thunderstorms.
..Gleason.. 04/07/2026
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SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0246 PM CDT Tue Apr 07 2026
Valid 072000Z - 081200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms remain possible across
parts of the central/southern Florida Peninsula, southern/central
Rockies/High Plains, and northern High Plains today and tonight.
Organized severe thunderstorm potential appears low.
...20z Update...
The only change was to trim thunder probabilities over parts of the
southern FL Peninsula. Isolated storms remain possible south of the
front over the Keys tonight. While a brief stronger thunderstorm
remains possible across south FL, weak mid-level lapse rates and
modest vertical shear will continue to limit severe potential before
convection moves offshore this afternoon. Otherwise, the outlook
remains unchanged, see the previous discussion.
..Lyons.. 04/07/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1120 AM CDT Tue Apr 07 2026/
...Synopsis and Discussion...
A mid-level shortwave trough will move east-southeastward today from
British Columbia/Alberta to the northern Rockies/High Plains. Strong
mid-level winds will accompany this shortwave trough, and a
deep/well-mixed boundary layer is expected to develop across parts
of eastern MT and vicinity by this afternoon with diurnal heating.
However, low-level moisture will remain quite limited, with surface
dewpoints currently in the 20s to mid 30s across the northern High
Plains. This will hinder the development of any more than weak
MLCAPE by mid to late afternoon, although high-based convection
capable of producing occasional lightning flashes and strong/gusty
winds may occur. Given expectations for moisture and related
instability to remain quite meager, have not included low severe
wind probabilities across the northern High Plains with this update.
A weak mid-level shortwave trough will continue to advance eastward
across the FL Peninsula through the afternoon. Isolated to perhaps
scattered thunderstorms remain possible, mainly across parts of
south FL along and south of a convectively reinforced front. Prior
convection and ongoing cloud cover across the central/southern FL
Peninsula will probably hinder more robust diurnal heating this
afternoon. Still, locally gusty downdraft winds and small hail may
occur with the stronger cores that can develop, before convection
eventually focuses offshore by this evening.
Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms also appear possible
across parts of the southern/central Rockies and adjacent High
Plains through this evening, but weak instability across these
regions are expected to preclude severe thunderstorms.
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SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1142 AM CDT Tue Apr 07 2026
Valid 081200Z - 091200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
KANSAS...
...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms with isolated large hail will be possible in parts of
western and central Kansas late Wednesday afternoon into the
evening.
...Kansas...
A compact upper trough will pivot across the northern Plains to the
Great Lakes on Wednesday into early Thursday. At the surface, low
pressure centered over southern Manitoba will develop east/northeast
toward James Bay by the end of the period. A trailing cold front
will shift southeast across the central Plains and Upper Midwest.
Gulf moisture return will remain muted given persistent high
pressure over the East and prior cold frontal intrusions into the
Gulf. As a result, surface dewpoints will mainly be in the 40s ahead
of the cold front across the central Plains. Nevertheless, cool
temperatures aloft (around -18 to -16 C at 500 mb) will support a
plume of steep midlevel lapse rates across the region. This will aid
in weak destabilization in a narrow corridor near the front during
the late afternoon and evening. Low-level flow through at least 700
mb will remain fairly weak (less than 20 kt), but vertically veering
wind profiles with stronger northwest flow aloft will result in
supercell wind profiles and 30+ kt effective shear magnitudes.
Isolated thunderstorms are expected just ahead of the cold front
from late afternoon into the evening hours across western and
central KS. While instability will be the main limiting factor for a
more robust severe risk, isolated large hail will be possible with
any stronger updrafts that can be maintained. Additionally, a well
mixed boundary-layer with inverted-v sub-cloud layer thermodynamic
profiles are evident in forecast soundings. Weak low-level flow will
temper the damaging wind risk, but locally strong gusts will be
possible.
..Leitman.. 04/07/2026
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SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0152 PM CDT Tue Apr 07 2026
Valid 091200Z - 101200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS INTO KANSAS AND THE MID-MISSOURI VALLEY...
...SUMMARY...
An isolated threat for large hail and strong wind gusts is expected
to develop on Thursday in parts of the lower to mid Missouri Valley
westward into KS, and southward across the southern High Plains.
...Synopsis...
A mid/upper shortwave trough embedded within larger-scale troughing
across the northern U.S. will pivot eastward across the northern
Plains to the Upper Midwest on Thursday. Meanwhile, low-amplitude
upper ridging over the West will meander eastward toward the
Rockies. At the surface, a boundary will be oriented west to east
across northern KS and northern MO while a surface dryline extends
south/southwest across western KS into western TX. Neutral height
tendencies across the southern Plains will preclude stronger surface
cyclogenesis, but weak lee surface troughing is forecast across the
High Plains.
...Central Plains to Mid-MO Valley...
Boundary layer moisture will remain modest across the warm sector,
with surface dewpoints generally in the 50s F. Nevertheless, steep
midlevel lapse rates around 7.5-8.5 C/km will support MUCAPE to
around 1000-1500 J/kg near the west to east surface front.
Vertically veering wind profiles, with 40-50 kt flow through much of
the cloud bearing layer will support supercell wind profiles with
effective shear greater than 40 kt. Large-scale ascent is forecast
to remain modest, with the main midlevel shortwave passing to the
north of the area. However, convergence along the boundary and
continued warm advection into the evening as a low-level jet
increases should be sufficient for scattered thunderstorm
development. Isolated large hail will be possible with this activity
from late afternoon into the evening.
...Southern High Plains...
A more conditional severe thunderstorm environment will exist
further south along the dryline across western TX toward southwest
KS. Strong heating and mixing along the boundary, and low-level
convergence may be sufficient for a few storms developing by
evening. Steep midlevel lapse rates will support MLCAPE to around
1000-1500 J/kg. Vertical shear will remain modest, generally less
than 25 kt effective shear magnitudes. Isolated large hail will be
possible with any stronger cells that can develop and be maintained.
Additionally, a well mixed boundary-layer and inverted-v sub-cloud
layer thermodynamic profiles suggest locally strong wind gusts also
may be possible.
..Leitman.. 04/07/2026
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SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0250 PM CDT Tue Apr 07 2026
Valid 081200Z - 091200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH-CENTRAL/EASTERN
GEORGIA AND SOUTHWEST SOUTH CAROLINA...
A Critical risk area was added over southwest South Carolina and
into south-central and eastern Georgia. A corridor of strong
northeast winds up to 15-20 mph combined with afternoon RHs below
25% will impact the highlighted area. While less likely, it's worth
noting that some forecast model guidance is suggesting very dry
afternoon RHs below 20% across portions of east-central Georgia. The
Elevated area was also expanded across northern North Carolina where
northeast winds of 10-15 mph will combine with afternoon RHs under
30-35%. With few exceptions over the expanded area of the Elevated
risk, recent rainfall has overall been relatively minimal.
As was previously mentioned for the central/southern High Plains,
locally elevated conditions will be possible across portions of this
region where enhanced by downslope flow conditions. This is
especially true in southern South Dakota, southern Wyoming, and
eastern Colorado. However, the combination of wind, RH, and fuels is
expected to remain just below elevated thresholds through much of
the afternoon.
..Stearns.. 04/07/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0215 AM CDT Tue Apr 07 2026/
...Synopsis...
Upper-level ridging will persist across the Southwest on
D2/Wednesday as an upper-level trough progresses eastward along the
Canadian border. A closed upper-level low will simultaneously
approach the California coastline. At the surface, a cold front will
progress slowly southward across the central Great Plains while a
surface high shifts offshore of the Mid-Atlantic.
...Portions of southwestern South Carolina into western Georgia...
Surface high pressure to the north will continue to favor
northeasterly flow across much of the Southeast. Sustained surface
winds of 10-15 mph are forecast to overlap reduced RH of 25-35%
during peak mixing Wednesday afternoon. With dry, receptive fuels in
place across the area, this is expected to promote elevated fire
weather concerns from southwestern South Carolina into portions of
western Georgia. Latest high-res guidance indicates some potential
for locally critical conditions across portions of eastern Georgia;
however, Critical highlights have been withheld at this time due to
uncertainty regarding coverage and duration of sustained surface
winds of 15+ mph. Trends will continue to be monitored for future
issuances.
...Portions of the central/southern High Plains...
Northwesterly flow across the central/southern Rockies will favor
lee troughing across portions of the central/southern High Plains.
This is expected to support a weak downslope wind regime for
D2/Wednesday. While minimum RH values are forecast in the 10-15%
range, latest guidance indicates sustained surface winds will remain
less than 15 mph across much of the region. Thus, widespread
elevated fire weather conditions are not expected at this time.
Locally elevated conditions will be possible in gap flow and other
favorable areas for terrain enhanced winds, however.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
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