RSS Mesoscale Discussions from Storm Prediction Center
No watches are valid as of Thu Feb 12 11:16:02 UTC 2026.
No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Thu Feb 12 11:16:02 UTC 2026.
SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0209 AM CST Thu Feb 12 2026
Valid 141200Z - 151200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF OKLAHOMA AND TEXAS TOWARD THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe storms are expected from portions of
Oklahoma and Texas into the Lower Mississippi Valley Saturday
afternoon into the overnight hours. Strong to locally damaging wind
gusts are the most likely hazard.
...OK/TX to the Lower MS Valley...
A positive-tilt upper shortwave trough will be oriented from the
central High Plains to the Southern Rockies and northern Mexico
Saturday morning. The trough will progress eastward through the
period, extending from the Ozarks to the western Gulf Coast by early
Sunday. As this occurs, a surface low in the vicinity of the TX
Panhandle/western OK will modestly deepen as it shifts east toward
northern MS through the period and a trailing cold front advancing
southeast across the region. Enhanced southwesterly deep-layer flow,
characterized by a 60-80 kt 500 mb jet, will overspread the region
by afternoon into the overnight hours. Meanwhile, a 30-40 kt
southerly low-level jet across OK/TX early in the period will
intensify with eastward extent after 00z. Forecast guidance depicts
40-50 kt 850mb southwesterly flow over AR/LA/MS/AL after dark.
Most guidance maintains surface dewpoints in the upper 50s to low
60s F across the region, with perhaps mid 60s F dewpoints hugging
the immediate Gulf Coast. Midlevel cooling atop moistening low to
midlevels will support modest destabilization (500-1000 J/kg
MLCAPE), especially over portions of TX/OK into western LA/southwest
AR. Instability is likely to wane somewhat with eastward extent
overnight as lapse rates weaken, nocturnal boundary layer
stabilization occurs, along with convection possibly outpacing
better moisture return.
Overall, at least some isolated risk for severe storms appears
possible across a broad area from central/southeast OK into
central/eastern TX, eastward toward the Lower MS Valley. Initial
thunderstorms development is likely to be cells/clusters near the
surface low and trailing cold front over OK/TX. As the low deepens
and front shifts east, increasing ascent and strengthening
southwesterly deep-layer flow parallel to the surface boundary will
favor a transition to a linear/QLCS mode. Strong gusts will likely
be the main hazard.
..Leitman.. 02/12/2026
Read more
Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0306 AM CST Thu Feb 12 2026
Valid 151200Z - 201200Z
...DISCUSSION...
...Day 4/Sun -- Deep South/Southeast...
An upper trough will move across the Deep South and Southeast on Day
4/Sun. Strong deep-layer southwesterly flow atop a modestly moist
boundary layer will support weak destabilization, though how much
remains uncertain as ongoing convection and cloud cover could limit
instability. Some risk for strong to isolated severe storms seems
most likely from southern AL/GA into parts of FL as surface low and
trailing cold front move across the region. However, overall risk
appears limited by modest thermodynamics and possible widespread
heavy rain.
...Days 5-8...
On Days 5-6/Mon-Tue, upper level ridging is forecast to spread east
from the Plains to the Midwest and eastern U.S. By Midweek, medium
range guidance generally depicts upper level troughing spreading
across the western U.S. and at least some potential for upper
shortwave trough ejection into parts of the central U.S. However,
forecast spread is large beyond Day 6/Tue. Trends suggest some
increase in thunderstorm potential could develop toward the end of
the forecast period somewhere in the central U.S./Midwest vicinity,
but predictability is low.
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SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1254 AM CST Thu Feb 12 2026
Valid 121200Z - 131200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
...Synopsis...
Upper ridging will prevail over the Plains as a mid-level trough
approaches from the west, and another upper trough progresses
further over the Atlantic today. Surface high pressure will dominate
over the Mississippi Valley to the East Coast, with moist return
flow expected over the southern Plains given potential weak surface
low development. Overall, quiescent fire weather conditions are
expected CONUS wide. However, a dry low-level airmass will
overspread portions of the Southeast and the central High Plains,
supporting drying fuels and perhaps localized wildfire growth
potential.
..Squitieri.. 02/12/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
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SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1255 AM CST Thu Feb 12 2026
Valid 131200Z - 141200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
...Synopsis...
Upper ridging will traverse the Southeast as a mid-level trough
overspreads the Southern Plains tomorrow (Friday). Surface high
pressure and associated cooler temperatures will linger over the
Appalachians and points east. Meanwhile, surface low development
over the southern Plains will promote a continued moistening
low-level airmass, along with appreciable rainfall accumulations
from showers and thunderstorms. As such, quiescent fire weather
conditions are expected across the CONUS on Friday.
..Squitieri.. 02/12/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
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