RSS Mesoscale Discussions from Storm Prediction Center
WW 197 SEVERE TSTM TX 102215Z - 110500Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 197
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
515 PM CDT Sun May 10 2026
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of
South-Central Texas
* Effective this Sunday afternoon from 515 PM until Midnight CDT.
* Primary threats include...
Scattered damaging winds likely with isolated significant gusts
to 75 mph possible
Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2
inches in diameter possible
A tornado or two possible
SUMMARY...Strong to severe storms will initially impact parts of the
Rio Grande Valley, while additional storms over central Texas
continue to organize and progress southeastward, with an increasing
potential for large hail and damaging winds this evening regionally.
The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 55
statute miles north and south of a line from 45 miles west of Del
Rio TX to 40 miles east southeast of Austin TX. For a complete
depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update
(WOUS64 KWNS WOU7).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.
&&
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 196...
AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 65 knots. A
few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 550. Mean storm motion vector
30025.
...Guyer
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WW 196 SEVERE TSTM TX 101835Z - 110200Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 196
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
135 PM CDT Sun May 10 2026
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of
West, Central, and North-Central Texas
* Effective this Sunday afternoon and evening from 135 PM until
900 PM CDT.
* Primary threats include...
Scattered damaging winds likely with isolated significant gusts
to 80 mph possible
Scattered large hail likely with isolated very large hail events
to 2.5 inches in diameter possible
A tornado or two possible
SUMMARY...Supercells should initially develop this afternoon and
pose a threat for mainly large to very large hail up to 1.5-2.5
inches in diameter. A tornado or two may also occur with any
supercell that can anchor along/near a southward-moving front.
Otherwise, the threat for scattered to numerous severe/damaging
winds is expected to increase through the afternoon and evening as
thunderstorms grow upscale into an intense bowing cluster. Peak
gusts may reach up to 70-80 mph on an isolated basis.
The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 85
statute miles north and south of a line from 50 miles south
southwest of Big Spring TX to 40 miles east of Stephenville TX. For
a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline
update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU6).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.
&&
AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
2.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 70 knots. A
few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector
30030.
...Gleason
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WW 0197 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0197 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET
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WW 0196 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 196
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 SSE MAF
TO 35 S BGS TO 25 NE BGS TO 50 SE LBB.
..JEWELL..05/10/26
ATTN...WFO...FWD...MAF...SJT...
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 196
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
TXC027-035-049-059-081-083-093-095-099-105-133-143-151-193-207-
217-221-235-237-251-253-267-281-307-309-319-327-333-335-353-363-
367-383-399-411-413-415-417-425-429-431-435-441-447-451-503-
102240-
TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BELL BOSQUE BROWN
CALLAHAN COKE COLEMAN
COMANCHE CONCHO CORYELL
CROCKETT EASTLAND ERATH
FISHER HAMILTON HASKELL
HILL HOOD IRION
JACK JOHNSON JONES
KIMBLE LAMPASAS MCCULLOCH
MCLENNAN MASON MENARD
MILLS MITCHELL NOLAN
PALO PINTO PARKER REAGAN
RUNNELS SAN SABA SCHLEICHER
SCURRY SHACKELFORD SOMERVELL
STEPHENS STERLING SUTTON
TAYLOR THROCKMORTON TOM GREEN
YOUNG
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No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Sun May 10 22:23:02 UTC 2026.
SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0258 PM CDT Sun May 10 2026
Valid 102000Z - 111200Z
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
WESTERN/CENTRAL TEXAS...
...SUMMARY...
Scattered large hail (some 2+ inches) and numerous severe/damaging
wind gusts (isolated 75+ mph) are expected this afternoon/evening
across parts of west-central to central Texas. A couple of tornadoes
also appear possible across parts of west-central Texas along/near a
front.
...20z Update...
The previous forecast remains largely on track with only minor
adjustments required based on recent observed trends. The
convectively reinforced cold front across northwest TX continues to
surge south faster than anticipated by morning guidance.
Nonetheless, elevated supercell development is ongoing immediately
north of the boundary where MUCAPE was recently analyzed near 2000
J/kg. Consequently, severe hail probabilities (and the ENH
categorical bounds) have largely been left in place with only a
southward reduction in the wind and tornado probabilities based on
the expected 20 UTC frontal position.
Across central to southern TX, recent HRRR/RRFS time-lagged
ensembles depict the potential for 75+ mph winds across the
Austin/San Antonio region and southward into south TX late tonight.
This signal appears reasonable given the expected evolution of the
eventual MCS and downstream environment (both sampled by recent
ACARS soundings and forecast by short-range guidance). The 15% wind
and Intensity Level 1 contours have been expanded south to address
this potential.
Across northeast TX, the remnants of an early-morning MCS have
transitioned into a single organized supercell that has begun
weakening over the past 20-30 minutes. However, attempts at new
convective development are noted along the outflow boundary to the
south of the decaying supercell. With temperatures in the mid 80s
along/south of the boundary, lingering inhibition should be
minimized and may allow for additional strong/severe thunderstorms
through early evening with an attendant threat for severe hail/wind.
Elsewhere, the forecast remains on track. See the previous
discussion below and MCDs 693, 694, and 695 for additional
short-term details.
..Moore.. 05/10/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1138 AM CDT Sun May 10 2026/
...Texas into the ArkLaTex/Lower Mississippi Valley...
Severe potential today will be complicated by ongoing thunderstorms
along/near the Red River and a convectively reinforced outflow
boundary across the ArkLaTex/lower MS Valley. In general, a
favorable setup for scattered to numerous severe/damaging winds
remains apparent this afternoon/evening across parts of west-central
into north TX to the south of current convective activity, along
with the potential for large to very large hail and perhaps a couple
of tornadoes with initial supercells that may develop.
Recent surface analysis shows a low over northwest TX, with a
dryline extending southward to the Big Bend region. A cold front
arcing northeastward from the low across western north TX into
southern OK and western/northern AR will likely serve as a focus for
additional robust thunderstorm development this afternoon. The
observed 12Z FWD sounding sampled the pre-convective airmass well,
with steep mid-level lapse rates atop a rather moist low-level
airmass aiding MUCAPE around 2500 J/kg.
There is some uncertainty regarding airmass recovery with eastward
extent towards the ArkLaTex given a notable outflow boundary from
earlier convection noted on latest visible satellite imagery
extending from north-central to east-central TX. Still, this
boundary seems to have stalled recently, with mostly clear skies to
its north across northeast TX ahead of ongoing thunderstorms in
north-central TX. Current expectations are for moderate to strong
instability to develop this afternoon as diurnal heating occurs
across west-central to north TX, with the greatest instability
focused south of the cold front/outflow and east of the dryline.
Stronger west-northwesterly mid-level flow associated with a
southeastward-moving shortwave trough may tend to remain displaced
along and slightly to the north of the cold front through the day.
Still, sufficient overlap of modestly enhanced mid-level winds and
related deep-layer shear is forecast across the northern portions of
the warm sector in TX. This shear should support some supercells
with initial development, particularly across parts of west-central
into north-central TX. Large to isolated very large hail (2+ inches)
may occur with these supercells, before convection quickly grows
upscale into an intense bowing cluster. A narrow zone of tornado
potential is also apparent with the supercells across parts of
west-central TX near the sagging front, where low-level shear will
be locally enhanced by east-northeasterly near-surface winds.
Scattered to numerous severe/damaging winds are expected across much
of central TX after this mode transition occurs. With ample
instability and a highly organized cold pool expected, some of these
gusts could exceed 75 mph on a localized basis. The severe/damaging
wind threat should continue through the evening as the bowing
cluster spreads south-southeastward across much of TX. Eventual
weakening is forecast late tonight into early Monday morning,
although at least an isolated damaging wind threat may persist into
south/coastal TX through the end of the period.
Lower confidence in organized severe potential exists with eastward
extent into the ArkLaTex and lower MS Valley, as ongoing cloud cover
and outflow from earlier convection may inhibit diurnal heating and
the development of any more than weak instability this afternoon.
Still, some chance for redevelopment remains apparent along/east of
the cold front, so severe hail/wind probabilities have been
maintained with adjustments based on current observations and latest
short-term guidance.
...Central New Mexico into Far West Texas...
Low-level orographic ascent with the surging cold front should
support isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms developing across
central NM into parts of far west TX this afternoon and evening.
Cool temperatures aloft will aid in the development of weak
instability, even with limited low-level moisture. Around 30-35 kt
of effective bulk shear should foster organized updrafts, with the
strongest cores capable of producing isolated hail and occasional
severe/damaging winds.
...Florida...
Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms should develop along the
stalled front this afternoon across the northern FL Peninsula, and
southward along the Atlantic Coast sea breeze. Diurnal heating of a
moist low-level airmass, with MLCAPE up to 1500-2000 J/kg, should
support water-loaded downdrafts capable of producing locally
damaging winds. Sufficient deep-layer shear may also foster
sufficient updraft organization for isolated hail with the more
robust cores.
...Mid-Atlantic...
Strong to locally damaging winds may occur with high-based
convection that forms on the Appalachians/Blue Ridge this afternoon
and subsequently spreads east-northeastward along/ahead of a cold
front. While instability will remain weak, a deeply mixed boundary
layer should encourage gusty downdraft winds to reach the surface in
a narrow corridor where a Marginal Risk has been introduced.
Read more
SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0230 PM CDT Sun May 10 2026
Valid 121200Z - 131200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHEAST
KANSAS NORTHEAST INTO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe storms with strong wind gusts and hail will be
possible on Tuesday from parts of southeast Kansas northeast into
southern Wisconsin.
... Overview ...
The midlevel pattern will amplify further on Tuesday as a midlevel
low and associated trough move southeast over the Upper Great Lakes
in response to a building ridge upstream. As the midlevel flow
amplifies, a jet streak will redevelop on the upshear side of the
trough, resulting in strong vertical shear across the Central US.
At the surface, a low will quickly drop southeast out of Canada,
across Wisconsin, into Lower Michigan. To the west/southwest of this
low, a cold front will quickly push south and east.
... Southeast Kansas northeast into Southern Wisconsin ...
Ahead of the aforementioned surface cold front, southerly winds on
the west side of a surface anticyclone will support northward
moisture transport across the central US. The 20260510/12Z guidance
suite shows considerable variance in the depth and quality of the
moisture return and in turn, convective coverage.
Low level convergence along the front will be greatest the closest
to the surface low. Despite surface dewpoints in the upper-40Fs to
perhaps low-50Fs, a couple of thunderstorms are likely to develop
across southern Wisconsin. Convergence along the front should
decrease with southwest extent with an increasing EML/cap in the
same direction. Thus, despite better low level moisture, and in turn
buoyancy, across the Central Plains, confidence in thunderstorm
development is low. That said, the 20260510/12Z Hi-Res NAM shows
thunderstorm development all along the front from southeast Kansas
into Wisconsin. The overall kinematic environment will be favorable
for at least a few severe wind reports where ever thunderstorms
develop, and thus the Level 1/Marginal Risk has been expanded to
incorporate this potential.
... Central and South Florida ...
A post frontal airmass should be in place across the area on
Tuesday, with northerly surface winds advecting in a slightly drier
airmass. Despite that, a myriad of potential surface boundaries
(including both Gulf and Atlantic sea breezes) will be around during
the afternoon to serve as potential thunderstorm initiation
mechanisms. Although effective layer shear will be around 30 to
perhaps 40 knots, the degree of instability may limit the overall
wind threat.
... Interior Pacific Northwest ...
A few thunderstorms may develop during the late afternoon and
overnight across portions of Oregon and Washington within a belt of
strong southerly flow ahead of an approaching midlevel trough to the
west and the building ridge to the east. Although low level moisture
should remain scant, sufficient midlevel moisture should combine
with large-scale ascent and steep lapse rates to support a few
thunderstorms. Fast storm motions and steep low-to-midlevel lapse
rates may support a few severe thunderstorm wind gusts. However, the
nature of this threat is still too low to warrant unconditional
severe probabilities.
..Marsh.. 05/10/2026
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SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0236 PM CDT Sun May 10 2026
Valid 111200Z - 121200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PARTS OF EASTERN MONTANA INTO
WEST-CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...
...Portions of the Northern and Central Plains...
No significant changes to the outlook were made. A mid-level short
wave and attendant 60-70 knot jet max enters the northern High
Plains Sunday. At the surface, a deepening lee surface trough and
evolving cold front will translate eastward into Upper Midwest by
early Tuesday morning. A well mixed boundary layer collocated with
stronger flow aloft will support a corridor of stronger
west-northwest winds of 20-25 mph across northeastern MT and western
ND. These winds aligned with RH minima of 15-25% will support
critical fire weather conditions amid very dry fuels. Elevated fire
weather concerns including wind speeds approaching 20 mph from the
west/northwest will exist across much of the High Plains of Montana
into western ND surrounding the higher magnitude wind corridor.
There is a potential for elevated convection across northern ND as
the surface trough and cold front push into Northern Plains,
although expected cloud cover could inhibit broader destabilization
and thus lightning production.
South of the cold front, downslope enhanced drying amid deep layer
westerly flow will affect portions of western SD and northern NE.
West winds of around 15 mph and RH as low as 10% will promote
several hours of elevated fire weather conditions amid receptive
fuels Monday.
..Williams.. 05/10/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0202 AM CDT Sun May 10 2026/
...Synopsis...
Along the northern periphery of an expansive upper ridge over the
West, a robust midlevel trough and accompanying 60-70-kt jet streak
will advance eastward across MT into ND during peak heating. At the
same time, a related surface low will move eastward from SK into MB
Canada, while a southward-extending lee trough deepens along the
northern/central Plains -- before being overtaken by a surface
front. This large-scale pattern will favor a broad area of elevated
conditions across parts of the northern and central Plains during
the afternoon, with critical conditions expected over eastern MT
into west-central ND.
...Northern into the Central Plains...
Ample diurnal heating and downslope flow trajectories will promote
deep boundary-layer mixing along and west of the lee trough during
the afternoon, where upper 70s to lower/middle 80s temperatures and
15-25 percent RH are expected. Over the northern Plains, a
combination of a tight pressure gradient and strong deep-layer
west-northwesterly flow will promote 20-25 mph sustained
west-northwesterly surface winds (with higher gusts) amid 20-25
percent RH. The greatest overlap of strong surface winds and low RH
atop critically receptive fuels is expected from eastern MT into
west-central ND -- where Critical highlights are in place. Farther
south, a slightly weaker pressure gradient and moderate flow aloft
will favor 15 mph sustained west-southwesterly surface winds, with
10-15 percent RH. Given receptive fuels here as well, elevated to
locally critical conditions are expected. A north-northwesterly wind
shift is expected during the evening behind the front, with
increasing RH and cooling temperatures.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0459 PM CDT Sun May 10 2026
Valid 121200Z - 181200Z
...Synopsis...
A more active upper-level wave pattern emerges later this week
across the CONUS. The upper ridge responsible for near record
setting heat early this week will shift into the central U.S. by
Thursday, saddled by an amplifying trough across the eastern U.S.
and another trough moving into the western states Days
4-5/Wednesday-Thursday, the latter of which will bring broader fire
weather concerns to a drying fuelscape across the West. Forecast
uncertainty increases as the weekend approaches with a more diffuse,
perhaps zonal, pattern returning to the CONUS.
...Day 3/Tuesday - Northern Plains and Upper Midwest...
Dry, post-frontal flow in the wake of a deep surface low across the
Great Lakes will bring a fire weather threat to portions of the
Northern Plains and Upper Midwest where frontal precipitation is
minimized and critically dry fuels remain. RH reductions will be
limited to 20-30% but northwest winds of 15-25 mph over receptive
fuels, supports a continuation (and slight expansion based on latest
model guidance) of 40% critical probabilities across the region.
...Day 4/Wednesday...
...Southern Great Basin and Southwest...
Fire weather concerns increase across portions of the Southwest and
Great Basin ahead of an advancing upper trough and attendant
increasing southwest flow aloft. Advection of mid and upper level
Pacific moisture and supportive kinematic environment should support
some high-based showers and thunderstorms across much of the
Intermountain West on Day 4/Wednesday. A 10% probability area for
dry thunderstorms has been introduced where fuels are expected to be
driest, reaching the 90th percentile by midweek under a few days of
abnormally warm temperatures. Farther west, drier southwest flow
should impact much of the eastern Great Basin and upper CO River
Basin regions allowing for a heightened fire weather concern under a
drying/curing fuelscape. A slight expansion of existing 40% critical
probabilities has been made into the AZ Strip area.
...Northeastern Montana...
A deepening surface low in the lee of the Northern Rockies will
promote stronger southerly flow over the northern High Plains on Day
4/Wednesday. Existing dry fuels amid a southerly dry return flow
will combine to bring enhanced fire weather concerns to northeastern
MT, where 40% critical probabilities have been introduced.
..Williams.. 05/10/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
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