RSS Mesoscale Discussions from Storm Prediction Center
No watches are valid as of Fri Jan 16 12:34:02 UTC 2026.
No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Fri Jan 16 12:34:02 UTC 2026.
SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0630 AM CST Fri Jan 16 2026
Valid 161300Z - 171200Z
...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are not forecast today or tonight.
...Synopsis and Discussion...
A mid-level shortwave trough will move eastward over the Great Lakes
and Midwest today as large-scale upper troughing remains over much
of the central/eastern CONUS. A surface cold front will continue to
advance southeastward through the period across the remainder of the
southern Plains and much of the Southeast. Low-level moisture and
related instability are expected to remain too limited to support
thunderstorm development today along/ahead of the cold front.
..Gleason.. 01/16/2026
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Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook RESENT 1
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0234 AM CST Fri Jan 16 2026
Valid 191200Z - 241200Z
...DISCUSSION...
Broad upper troughing will persist across much of the CONUS from the
Rockies to the Eastern Seaboard during the Day 4-8 period. Surface
high pressure will largely keep Gulf moisture well offshore, with
cold air intrusions into the Plains and eastern U.S. precluding much
in the way of thunderstorm potential.
The exception may be briefly on Day 6/Wednesday across portions of
the Texas Coastal Plain vicinity. As a reinforcing shortwave upper
trough ejects across the Rockies, lee surface low development over
western TX will allow for very modest Gulf moisture to filter into
south/southeast TX. A cold front will sweep south/southeast during
the evening/overnight and isolated thunderstorms could develop.
Severe potential appears low given modest moisture/limited
destabilization.
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SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0142 AM CST Fri Jan 16 2026
Valid 161200Z - 171200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR NORTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE TEXAS
PANHANDLE INTO WESTERN OKLAHOMA...
...Synopsis...
A strong mid-level jet maximum will progress southward along the
Rockies/western edge of broad-scale eastern-CONUS troughing
throughout the day. As a surface low pressure system colocated with
the trough center moves eastward out of Wisconsin, a strong cold
front will continue to push eastward and southward across much of
the Great Plains and into the Midwest. Low relative humidity,
receptive fuels, and strong post-frontal surface winds will support
Critical fire-weather conditions across portions of the Texas and
Oklahoma panhandles, into western Oklahoma.
...Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles into Western Oklahoma...
Post-frontal conditions in the vicinity of the Texas and Oklahoma
panhandles into western Oklahoma will result in surface wind speeds
of 20-25 MPH, gusting as high as 35-40 MPH. Relative humidity will
broadly range from 15-30%, with the higher values corresponding with
cooler post-frontal temperatures near the border with Kansas. With
seasonal ERCs largely above the 90th percentile, widespread Elevated
and a smaller area of Critical fire-weather conditions are forecast
for this afternoon. A slight westward expansion of the Critical
highlights is introduced in this forecast to reflect greater
confidence in the location of the strongest surface winds per recent
HREF guidance. Though surface temperatures in far southeastern
Colorado into southwestern Kansas will be cooler (near 40F), surface
winds will be much stronger, warranting at least Elevated
highlights.
...Northeastern Colorado into Northwestern Kansas...
Seasonal ERCs are well above the 90th percentile across the region,
with sustained surface winds of 40+ MPH (gusting 50-60 MPH)
expected. However, surface temperatures are expected to remain
cooler (mid 30s F) given a lack of downslope component to the winds.
Forecast middle and upper-level cloud cover will further suppress
surface warming during the afternoon. Though fire-weather concerns
may develop, several limiting factors should limit the spatial and
temporal extent of any potential Elevated highlights.
..Halbert.. 01/16/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
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SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0142 AM CST Fri Jan 16 2026
Valid 171200Z - 181200Z
...Synopsis...
As a cold front advances into the Gulf late Friday into Saturday,
post-frontal gusty winds, low relative humidity, and receptive fuels
will warrant Elevated highlights across portions of central and
southern Texas.
...Portions of Central Texas to the Gulf Coast...
Post-frontal winds out of the north-northeast during the afternoon
on Saturday are expected to reach 15 MPH (gusting to 20), with
relative humidity between 15 and 20%. Current ERC fuels guidance has
fuels exceeding the maximum seasonal values across the region,
warranting at least Elevated fire-weather highlights.
...Central High Plains...
Strong post-frontal winds will continue across portions of the
Central High Plains -- particularly eastern Wyoming/Colorado into
western Kansas/Nebraska. These winds will be collocated with low
relative humidity and receptive fuels. However, surface temperatures
are expected to largely remain near or even below freezing during
the day Saturday. Some fire-weather concerns may be present during
the afternoon, though the near-freezing surface temperatures
preclude highlights at this time.
..Halbert.. 01/16/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
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