SPC - No watches are valid as of Tue May 26 00:43:02 UTC 2026

No watches are valid as of Tue May 26 00:43:02 UTC 2026.

SPC MD 859

MD 0859 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF THE MID-MISSOURI VALLEY

Mesoscale Discussion 0859
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0713 PM CDT Mon May 25 2026

Areas affected...portions of the mid-Missouri Valley

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 260013Z - 260145Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated developing thunderstorms may bring a risk for
large hail and damaging wind gusts over the next 1-2 hours. Watch
issuance is unlikely at this time.

DISCUSSION...Latest visible satellite imagery and GOES lightning
data depict isolated, developing thunderstorms along a weak surface
trough from far northeastern Nebraska into northwestern Iowa.
Temperatures in the upper-80s F and dewpoints in the low-60s are
supporting  moderate buoyancy, with 1500 to locally 2500 J/kg MLCAPE
depicted via latest objective analysis. While northwesterly
mid-level flow remains rather weak, 20-30 kts of effective shear is
sufficient to support some organization of more robust updrafts,
with the potential for marginal supercell structures. The primary
threats with these storms will be an isolated risk for large hail
and damaging wind gusts given steep low- and mid-level lapse rates. 

The overall severe threat is expected to remain spatially and
temporally limited, with the mostly likely scenario being one or two
strong to severe thunderstorms evolving over the next 1-2 hours
before nocturnal cooling/stabilization begins to bring a decreasing
severe risk. Given this, watch issuance is unlikely, but trends will
continue to be monitored.

..Chalmers/Thompson.. 05/26/2026

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MPX...DMX...FSD...OAX...

LAT...LON   42459719 42869719 43509668 44069539 44089445 43949397
            43619375 43089385 42679419 42389485 42099560 41889626
            41989684 42189711 42459719 

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN

SPC MD 858

MD 0858 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES

Mesoscale Discussion 0858
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0646 PM CDT Mon May 25 2026

Areas affected...portions of the Northern Rockies

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 252346Z - 260145Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...Potential for isolated damaging to occasionally severe
wind gusts will continue for a few more hours. Watch issuance is not
expected.

DISCUSSION...Isolated high-based convection is ongoing across
portions of the Northern Rockies from central Idaho into western
Montana, with several reports of damaging to severe wind gusts noted
with this activity over the least 1-2 hours. Latest objective
analysis depicts weak buoyancy (250-750 J/kg MLCAPE) across this
region, with a modified 18z BOI observed sounding depicting a deep,
well-mixed boundary layer with an inverted-v thermodynamic profile.
As this convection continues to evolve north-northeastward over the
next couple of hours, it will encounter accelerating mid-level flow
(sampled by the PDT/OTX VAD profiles) ahead of a robust mid/upper
trough digging into the Pacific Northwest. Steep low-level lapse
rates and dry boundary layer profiles will continue to promote
efficient evaporative cooling and downward momentum transport, with
the resultant potential for isolated damaging to occasionally severe
wind gusts.

Latest high-res guidance suggests that some clustering of ongoing
convection along developing cold pools may occur over the next 1-2
hours as storms evolve north-northeastward. In this scenario, a
corridor or two of locally greater severe wind potential may
develop. The greatest potential will likely be across portions of
west-central into northwestern Montana where guidance suggests a
pool of locally greater buoyancy may exist. Watch issuance is not
expected at this time, however, given the isolated nature of the
severe threat.

..Chalmers/Thompson.. 05/25/2026

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...TFX...PIH...MSO...BOI...OTX...PDT...

LAT...LON   44791682 45951684 46601667 47491617 48281562 48931515
            49041496 49061366 49071265 49061197 48811185 48041166
            47421166 46541177 45331213 44631243 44371302 44261377
            44131483 44161600 44351653 44791682 

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
          
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0420 PM CDT Mon May 25 2026

Valid 271200Z - 021200Z

...Synopsis...
An upper-level low meanders around the CA/Great Basin region 
through midweek. Deep-layer and dry, southwesterly flow southeast of
the upper low will continue to promote a fire weather threat for
portions of the Southwest and Upper CO River Basin Days
3-4/Wednesday-Thursday. The upper low evolves into an open trough by
Day 5/Friday before rushing northward into southern Canada over the
weekend, allowing drier conditions to return to the West Coast
states after several preceding days of precipitation and cooler
temperatures. A blocking ridge should remain anchored over the
central CONUS into Canada through early June.

...Day 3-4/Wednesday-Thursday...
...Eastern Great Basin and Southwest...
Broad southwesterly flow associated with the slow moving upper low
should sustain fire weather concerns for portions of the eastern
Great Basin and Southwest Days 3-4/Wednesday-Thursday. In general,
sustained southwest winds of 15-20 mph (25 mph in favorable terrain)
amid surface RH in the 10-20% range will support elevated to
critical fire weather conditions amid available dry fuels. The
waning of stronger mid-level winds and resultant dissolving surface
pressure gradients should bring some reprieve to the region as early
as Friday as the mid/upper wave begins to translate northward.

...Days 5-8/Friday-Tuesday...
Longer term forecast guidance continues to show a reduced fire
weather threat across the western U.S., primarily due to a lighter
wind regime associated with the blocking ridge. However, drier and
warmer conditions returning after the upper trough exodus will
support drying/curing of fuels across much of the region over the
weekend into early next week.

..Williams.. 05/25/2026

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...


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