RSS Mesoscale Discussions from Storm Prediction Center
No watches are valid as of Wed Nov 26 17:31:02 UTC 2025.
No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Wed Nov 26 17:31:02 UTC 2025.
SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1024 AM CST Wed Nov 26 2025
Valid 261630Z - 271200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Severe storms are not forecast through tonight.
...Synopsis...
A deep cyclone (992 mb) will occlude today over the upper Great
Lakes while a cold front moves eastward/southeastward across the
Appalachians and off the Atlantic coast/into north FL by tonight.
The threat for thunderstorms appears negligible along/ahead of the
cold front from the Carolinas into the Tidewater given only weak
forcing for ascent and poor thermodynamic profiles based on regional
12z soundings. Isolated thunderstorms will be possible along the
front across north FL/southeast GA greater low-level moisture and
buoyancy compared to areas farther northeast. A separate area of
sea breeze convection/isolated thunderstorms will be possible this
afternoon across southeast FL, despite relatively warm temperatures
around 600 mb.
A band of showers/shallow convection along the cold front will
spread eastward today across WV and western PA/NY with gusty winds,
but lightning and convective wind damage appear unlikely.
Overnight, a lake effect convective band is expected across eastern
Lake Erie, where buoyancy depth could become marginally sufficient
for charge separation and isolated lightning flashes, though the
threat will remain on the margins for an outlook area.
Otherwise, a few thunderstorms will linger across deep south TX
through about midday until the cold front moves southward into
Mexico.
..Thompson/Wendt.. 11/26/2025
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SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1126 AM CST Wed Nov 26 2025
Valid 271200Z - 281200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated thunderstorms are possible across southeast Florida on
Thursday. Severe storms are not expected.
...Synopsis...
A broad upper low over the eastern third of US is forecast to deepen
considerable Thursday as a large ridge also intensifies over the
central and western parts of the country. A weak secondary shortwave
trough will move onshore over the Pacific Northwest behind the
building ridge. At the surface, a cold front will move offshore over
south FL with strong high pressure building behind it. This will
force offshore flow over much of the US. The one exception will be
the southern FL Peninsula tomorrow afternoon and evening where
isolated thunderstorms are possible before the front clears the
coast. Elsewhere, sporadic lightning is possible in the lee of the
Great Lakes, but coverage should be minimal. No severe weather is
expected.
..Lyons.. 11/26/2025
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SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0943 AM CST Wed Nov 26 2025
Valid 261700Z - 271200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
The forecast remains on track, and please see the previous
discussion for more details.
..Nauslar.. 11/26/2025
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1234 AM CST Wed Nov 26 2025/
...Synopsis...
Fire weather concerns are expected to be limited today across the
country. Widespread rainfall across the southern CONUS along with
snowfall and cold temperatures across the Plains/Midwest will negate
fire weather concerns for much of the country. Dry conditions will
persist across parts of the Southeast, but rain chances may improve
soil moisture over the next 24 hours. Surface observations along the
southern CA coast show winds beginning to increase to 15-25 mph
within the coastal terrain as an offshore pressure gradient becomes
established. This gradient will likely peak this morning with
pockets of 20-25 mph sustained winds likely for wind-prone
locations. Downslope warming/drying may support transient elevated
conditions, but ERCs remain depressed after widespread rainfall in
recent weeks, which should limit fire weather concerns.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
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