RSS Mesoscale Discussions from Storm Prediction Center
No watches are valid as of Fri Feb 13 21:15:02 UTC 2026.
No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Fri Feb 13 21:15:02 UTC 2026.
SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1026 AM CST Fri Feb 13 2026
Valid 131630Z - 141200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may produce occasional hail
and gusty winds this evening into the overnight hours across parts
of the southern Plains.
...Southern Plains...
An upper trough over Baja California late this morning will move
eastward across the Southwest/northern Mexico into the southern
Rockies by early Saturday morning. Gradually strengthening low-level
flow will continue to advect somewhat richer moisture northwestward
from the TX Hill Country (mostly 50s surface dewpoints) into parts
of west TX and western/central OK through the period. Modestly
steepened mid-level lapse rates present will support around 500-1000
J/kg MUCAPE by this evening across the southern High Plains. Various
NAM/RAP forecast soundings show strong effective bulk shear (around
50-70 kt) this evening/overnight as southwesterly mid/upper-level
flow strengthens with the approach of the upper trough, which will
likely support thunderstorm organization.
Isolated thunderstorms should initially develop on the northwest
periphery of the low-level moisture return over parts of northwest
TX and vicinity late this afternoon/early evening with some hail
threat. As large-scale ascent associated with the upper trough
approaches the southern High Plains later this evening, a more
extensive southwest to northeast corridor of convection is expected.
One or more clusters may eventually evolve into linear bands and
develop east-northeastward along/near an eastward-moving Pacific
front.
One of these linear clusters with perhaps embedded supercells seems
likely to occur early Saturday morning (after 14/06Z) from parts of
west into northwest TX as stronger forcing for ascent overspreads
this region. Mainly an isolated severe hail risk with the strongest
updrafts this afternoon/evening should transition to a mix of
hail/wind potential during the overnight hours as the convective
mode becomes more linear. Strengthening low-level warm-air advection
over OK tonight will favor primarily elevated strong to locally
severe thunderstorms capable of occasional hail, perhaps extending
as far north as southern KS during the pre-dawn hours Saturday.
..Gleason/Wendt.. 02/13/2026
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SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0151 PM CST Fri Feb 13 2026
Valid 132000Z - 141200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may produce occasional hail
and gusty winds this evening into the overnight hours across parts
of the southern Plains.
...20Z Update...
No changes needed to the ongoing forecast.
Recent satellite imagery continues to show a shortwave trough
extending from the western Great Basin to off the central Baja
Peninsula. A lead vorticity maximum is ejecting northeastward ahead
of the main shortwave across northern Mexico, and ascent attendant
to this feature will likely begin interacting with the northwestern
periphery of the returning low-level moisture this evening. As
mentioned in the previous discussion, this interaction should
support isolated thunderstorms across northwest TX and southwest OK.
Isolated hail is the primary risk with this activity.
Thunderstorm coverage is expected to expand tonight from northwest
TX/southwest OK into much of west TX as persistent large-scale
ascent is augmented by a strengthening low-level jet and associated
warm-air advection. A few stronger storms and/or clusters remain
possible overnight, with perhaps even an embedded supercell. A
transition to a mix of hail/wind potential is still expected during
the overnight hours as the convective mode trends more linear.
Isolated strong to severe storms will remain possible across OK
overnight, supported by strengthening warm-air advection, strong
shear, and modest buoyancy.
..Mosier.. 02/13/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1026 AM CST Fri Feb 13 2026/
...Southern Plains...
An upper trough over Baja California late this morning will move
eastward across the Southwest/northern Mexico into the southern
Rockies by early Saturday morning. Gradually strengthening low-level
flow will continue to advect somewhat richer moisture northwestward
from the TX Hill Country (mostly 50s surface dewpoints) into parts
of west TX and western/central OK through the period. Modestly
steepened mid-level lapse rates present will support around 500-1000
J/kg MUCAPE by this evening across the southern High Plains. Various
NAM/RAP forecast soundings show strong effective bulk shear (around
50-70 kt) this evening/overnight as southwesterly mid/upper-level
flow strengthens with the approach of the upper trough, which will
likely support thunderstorm organization.
Isolated thunderstorms should initially develop on the northwest
periphery of the low-level moisture return over parts of northwest
TX and vicinity late this afternoon/early evening with some hail
threat. As large-scale ascent associated with the upper trough
approaches the southern High Plains later this evening, a more
extensive southwest to northeast corridor of convection is expected.
One or more clusters may eventually evolve into linear bands and
develop east-northeastward along/near an eastward-moving Pacific
front.
One of these linear clusters with perhaps embedded supercells seems
likely to occur early Saturday morning (after 14/06Z) from parts of
west into northwest TX as stronger forcing for ascent overspreads
this region. Mainly an isolated severe hail risk with the strongest
updrafts this afternoon/evening should transition to a mix of
hail/wind potential during the overnight hours as the convective
mode becomes more linear. Strengthening low-level warm-air advection
over OK tonight will favor primarily elevated strong to locally
severe thunderstorms capable of occasional hail, perhaps extending
as far north as southern KS during the pre-dawn hours Saturday.
Read more
SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1130 AM CST Fri Feb 13 2026
Valid 141200Z - 151200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EAST TX INTO
LA AND SOUTHWEST MS...
...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are possible from Saturday into Saturday night
from parts of Texas into the lower Mississippi Valley. Isolated hail
will be possible across parts of Texas during the day, with an
increasing threat of damaging winds and a couple tornadoes expected
Saturday night from east Texas into Louisiana and southwest
Mississippi.
...Synopsis...
A vigorous mid/upper-level shortwave trough will move across the
southern Plains during the day, before reaching the lower MS Valley
vicinity Saturday night. This system will be accompanied by a strong
midlevel jet (60-80 kt at 500 mb) and a consolidating surface low
that is forecast to eventually deepen and reach the ArkLaTex region
by evening. Relatively rich low-level moisture (with dewpoints in
the 60s F) will already be in place Saturday morning across parts of
TX/OK, and will eventually spread into parts of the lower MS Valley
by evening, in conjunction with the advancing surface low.
...Southern Plains into the lower MS Valley...
Elevated storms will likely be ongoing Saturday morning from parts
of west/northwest TX into southern OK, which could pose an isolated
hail threat. Early-day convection may gradually evolve into a
loosely organized QLCS across north TX and vicinity, with additional
isolated strong to severe storm development possible into central TX
as the primary mid/upper shortwave trough ejects eastward. Weak to
locally moderate buoyancy and increasing deep-layer shear will
support at least an isolated severe threat through the afternoon,
though CAM guidance varies regarding the coverage and duration of
organized storms through the first part of the period.
Guidance generally depicts increasing low-level mass response
near/after 00Z, which should aid the development of a more organized
QLCS during the evening across parts of east TX. This QLCS is
expected move eastward into parts of LA and lower MS Valley during
the late evening and overnight hours. While instability will become
increasingly scant with eastward extent, strengthening low/midlevel
flow and effective SRH will support development of one or more
organized bowing segments, with an attendant threat of scattered
damaging winds. Some increase in the tornado threat will also be
possible Saturday evening/night, both with line-embedded
mesovortices, and also potentially with any supercells within the
warm-conveyor belt region that eventually merge into the primary
QLCS.
Most guidance suggests some weakening trend prior to 12Z Sunday
morning, with the stronger forcing potentially becoming displaced
from the effective warm sector. However, some threat for locally
damaging winds and a brief tornado could persist near the LA/MS
coasts through the end of the forecast period.
..Dean.. 02/13/2026
Read more
SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0126 PM CST Fri Feb 13 2026
Valid 151200Z - 161200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE SOUTHEAST AND EASTERN GULF COAST VICINITY...
...SUMMARY...
Strong thunderstorm development, accompanied by at least some risk
for severe weather, may continue through the day into Sunday night
across parts of the Southeast and eastern Gulf Coast region.
...Parts of the Southeast/Gulf Coast...
No major changes have been made to the Marginal Risk area.
A QLCS may be ongoing Sunday morning from southeast LA into southern
MS and far southwest AL, as an initially vigorous mid/upper-level
trough/low and surface cyclone move eastward across a gradually
moistening environment. Some threat for locally damaging wind and a
brief tornado may accompany this QLCS Sunday morning, though scant
buoyancy and a tendency towards gradual dampening of the primary
shortwave trough and surface cyclone may result in a weakening trend
with the initial QLCS.
Despite the expected weakening trend, deep-layer flow/shear across
the warm sector will remain favorable for organized convection, and
continued low-level moistening may allow for deep convection to
redevelop near the Gulf Coast. Destabilization will likely remain
limited, but if sufficient buoyancy can be maintained, then some
threat for locally damaging wind and/or a tornado could evolve
across south AL/GA and the FL Panhandle into the afternoon, and
potentially spread into parts of the FL Peninsula by Sunday night.
Another area of storm redevelopment may evolve across parts of MS/AL
during the afternoon and evening, in association with the primary
midlevel low. The extent of recovery in the wake of the morning QLCS
remains uncertain, but cooling temperatures aloft could support
development of a few strong storms and potentially an isolated
severe threat.
..Dean.. 02/13/2026
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SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0146 PM CST Fri Feb 13 2026
Valid 141200Z - 151200Z
...Rio Grande Valley...
A mid-level trough and associated jet will move into the Southern
Plains Saturday. A corresponding deepening surface low across the
OK/TX Red River Valley will aid in pushing a trailing cold front and
attendant drier air mass into south-central TX by Saturday evening.
Substantial wetting rainfall should remain to the north of the Rio
Grande Saturday, although some uncertainty remains in RH reductions
lower than 20-25% by the afternoon. Confined elevated highlights to
lower elevations near the Rio Grande in south-central TX where RH is
more likely to reach 20% amid northwest winds of 15-20 mph in the
post-frontal environment.
..Williams.. 02/13/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1215 AM CST Fri Feb 13 2026/
...Synopsis...
A mid-level shortwave trough will traverse the southern Plains
through the day on Saturday. This will mix a dryline eastward across
portions of central and south Texas by afternoon. To the west of
this dryline along the Rio Grande Valley, winds are expected to gust
to 25-30 mph along with RH rapidly decreasing to near 15-25% in the
presence of dry fuels. Currently, it appears as though most of the
precipitation through Saturday evening will remain to the north and
east of this region, though some light precipitation may fall on
Saturday morning. This represents some uncertainty as to the overall
fire weather risk, however, given the dry antecedent conditions,
will introduce an Elevated area across portions of the Rio Grande
Valley.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
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