RSS Mesoscale Discussions from Storm Prediction Center
No watches are valid as of Wed Nov 26 07:23:02 UTC 2025.
No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Wed Nov 26 07:23:02 UTC 2025.
SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1048 PM CST Tue Nov 25 2025
Valid 261200Z - 271200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Severe storms are not forecast today.
...Synopsis...
A deep upper low will move across the upper Great Lakes and into
southwest Quebec, with a large area of cyclonic flow aloft across
the central and eastern CONUS. Meanwhile, an upper ridge will exist
over the West, but will weaken as an upper low approaches the
Pacific Northwest toward Thursday morning.
At the surface, a deep low will also move from the Great Lakes
region into western Quebec, with a large area of high pressure over
the Plains and extending into the southeastern states and into the
Gulf.
While a cold front will be located over the central Carolinas and
into the FL Panhandle early this morning, this boundary will push
rapidly offshore by midday. Early day rain and a few thunderstorms
will be possible along the front, but should generally weaken due to
drying aloft.
Elsewhere, lingering thunderstorms will be possible over far
southern Texas as the cold front undercuts moisture over Deep South
TX. This activity is also expected to weaken and/or be mostly
offshore during the rest of the day, as drying continues over land.
..Jewell/Moore.. 11/26/2025
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SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1131 PM CST Tue Nov 25 2025
Valid 271200Z - 281200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated thunderstorms are possible across southeast Florida on
Thursday. Severe storms are not expected.
...Synopsis...
A broad mid-level trough will deepen across the eastern CONUS,
ushering in surface high pressure and associated cool and stable air
across most of the CONUS, limiting thunderstorms over most locales
tomorrow (Thursday). The one exception will be the southern FL
Peninsula tomorrow afternoon and evening. Here, a surface cold front
will sweep across the region, lifting a moist and buoyant low-level
airmass before moving offshore. Isolated thunderstorms are possible
during the afternoon hours, before the cold front clears moisture
from the region.
..Squitieri.. 11/26/2025
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SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0120 AM CST Wed Nov 26 2025
Valid 281200Z - 291200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
A few thunderstorms are possible over the southern Plains Friday
night into early Saturday morning. Severe thunderstorms are not
currently expected.
...Synopsis...
A mid-level trough will amplify across the central U.S. as another
upper trough ejects into the Atlantic on Day 3 (Friday). As this
occurs, surface high pressure and an associated cool, statically
stable airmass will overspread the U.S. east of the MS River,
limiting thunderstorm potential. However, the approach of the
central U.S. trough will encourage surface low development over the
southern Plains on Friday, promoting moisture return from the Gulf.
With the return of this moisture comes buoyancy (albeit marginal)
across portions of the southern Plains. Thunderstorms will be
possible Friday night into early Saturday morning across much of
central TX into far southwestern OK as cooler temperatures
aloft/steep mid-level lapse rates overspreads the moist axis ahead
of the surface low.
...Central TX into far southwestern OK...
The latest guidance consensus depicts a 1008 mb surface low
developing somewhere over western OK by Friday evening as a
mid-level trough deepens over the central Rockies. Given a frontal
intrusion over the Gulf in days prior, moisture return will be scant
for Day 3/Friday. Nonetheless, the development of a strong (i.e.
40-50 kt) southerly low-level jet will aid in the northward
advancement of enough moisture to support scattered thunderstorm
development Friday night into early Saturday morning. Forecast
soundings depict a stable nocturnal boundary layer over central TX
to far southwestern OK, but with 7.5-8.5 C/km mid-level lapse rates
overspreading this stable, moist layer, yielding 500-1000 J/kg
MUCAPE, generally above 850 mb. Given the strong low-level jet, and
an approaching westerly 500 mb wind maximum rotating around the
amplifying trough, strong deep-layer shear is expected. Forecast
soundings show elongated hodographs, with approximately 50 kts of
effective bulk shear noted. Elevated multicells are expected, likely
accompanied by at least small hail. However, if trends in increasing
buoyancy are noted in future guidance, severe hail probabilities may
be needed in future outlooks.
..Squitieri.. 11/26/2025
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SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1234 AM CST Wed Nov 26 2025
Valid 261200Z - 271200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
...Synopsis...
Fire weather concerns are expected to be limited today across the
country. Widespread rainfall across the southern CONUS along with
snowfall and cold temperatures across the Plains/Midwest will negate
fire weather concerns for much of the country. Dry conditions will
persist across parts of the Southeast, but rain chances may improve
soil moisture over the next 24 hours. Surface observations along the
southern CA coast show winds beginning to increase to 15-25 mph
within the coastal terrain as an offshore pressure gradient becomes
established. This gradient will likely peak this morning with
pockets of 20-25 mph sustained winds likely for wind-prone
locations. Downslope warming/drying may support transient elevated
conditions, but ERCs remain depressed after widespread rainfall in
recent weeks, which should limit fire weather concerns.
..Moore.. 11/26/2025
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
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SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1235 AM CST Wed Nov 26 2025
Valid 271200Z - 281200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
...Synopsis...
Fire concerns will likely remain limited for Thursday. Widespread
rain and snowfall across the Midwest and the southern CONUS along
with weak winds across the West will mitigate fire weather concerns
for large portions of the country. Dry conditions are expected
across southern GA into the FL Peninsula in the wake of a cold
frontal passage late Wednesday into early Thursday. Drier solutions
hint that RH reductions into the 25-35% range are possible along
with 10-15 mph winds. Elevated fire weather conditions appear
probable, but rain chances over the next 24 hours may improve fuel
moisture across a region with already modest ERC values (between the
50-70th percentiles). As such, highlights are withheld for this
outlook, though fuel trends will be monitored. Breezy offshore winds
along the southern CA coast early Thursday are expected to abate
through the day as the pressure gradient weakens, but a few hours of
localized elevated conditions appear possible between 12-18 UTC.
..Moore.. 11/26/2025
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
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