RSS Mesoscale Discussions from Storm Prediction Center
No watches are valid as of Fri Feb 27 16:42:01 UTC 2026.
No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Fri Feb 27 16:42:01 UTC 2026.
SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0630 AM CST Fri Feb 27 2026
Valid 271300Z - 281200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected over parts of the
Southeast and Florida Peninsula today. Organized severe
thunderstorms appear unlikely.
...Southeast...
Recent surface analysis shows a cold front continuing to advance
southward this morning across southern LA/MS/AL into the FL
Panhandle and southern GA. This front will decelerate and stall
across the northern FL Peninsula today as a mid-level shortwave
trough moves eastward across the remainder of the Southeast. While
diurnal heating of a moist low-level airmass will occur ahead of the
front, relatively modest lapse rates should hinder the development
of any more than weak instability. Furthermore, low-level
convergence along the front is expected to remain limited. Even so,
isolated to scattered thunderstorms should eventually develop this
afternoon, focused across parts of the northern/central FL Peninsula
along and south of the front. While a stronger thunderstorm or two
with gusty winds may occur, the weak instability, modest lapse rates
aloft, and marginal deep-layer shear all suggest that the risk for
organized severe thunderstorms should remain low today.
..Gleason/Bentley.. 02/27/2026
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SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1010 AM CST Fri Feb 27 2026
Valid 271630Z - 281200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated-to-scattered thunderstorms are expected over portions of
the Southeast and Florida today. While a few strong storms may
develop this afternoon and evening, the threat of organized severe
thunderstorms appears low.
...Southeast...
A southward-advancing cold front is decelerating this morning across
the FL Panhandle and southeastern GA. This front is expected to
stall across the northern FL Peninsula today as a mid-level
shortwave trough evident in water vapor imagery moves eastward
across the Southeast. Diurnal heating of a moist low-level airmass
is underway ahead of the front, as low-level clouds have eroded
across much of the FL Peninsula this morning. Relatively modest
lapse rates should hinder the development of MLCAPE exceeding 1000
J/kg. Furthermore, low-level convergence along the front is expected
to remain limited. Even so, isolated to scattered thunderstorms
should eventually develop this afternoon into the evening, focused
across parts of the northern/central FL Peninsula along and south of
the front. While a stronger thunderstorm or two with gusty winds may
occur, especially along/near the eastern FL coast, the weak
instability, modest lapse rates aloft, and marginal deep-layer shear
all suggest that the risk for organized severe thunderstorms should
remain low today.
..Jirak.. 02/27/2026
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SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1040 AM CST Fri Feb 27 2026
Valid 271700Z - 281200Z
...Morning Update...
Changes were made to the previous forecast to extend the Elevated
fire risk along the southern Colorado Front Range. This morning, low
RH values of 10-20% are present in the lee of the Rockies with
sporadic gusts up to 40 mph extending to the Laramie Range. As the
area approaches peak heating, deep mixing coupled with westerly
downslope flow will support sustained surface winds of 15-25 mph and
terrain-induced isolated gusts of 35-45 mph, supporting Elevated to
locally critical fire weather conditions this afternoon. In central
to east-central New Mexico, sustained winds are forecast to be much
lighter than previous days. This morning, a few gusts of 20-30 mph
were observed in Albuquerque and east of the Sandia Manzano
Mountains. RH is expected to drop to 10-20% for a few hours this
afternoon with sustained winds of 15-20 mph. These conditions
overlapping dry fuels should support Elevated Fire Weather
conditions today.
For parts of the northern Missouri Valley into the Corn Belt and
Midwest, locally elevated fire weather conditions are possible for a
few hours this afternoon. Morning surface RH values are gradually
dropping between 30-40% and will likely decrease to 20-30% by peak
heating. Ahead of an advancing cold front, broad sustained
west-southwesterly surface winds of 10-20 mph are expected, possibly
up to 30 mph in a localized area of northeastern Nebraska and
northwestern Iowa. Given recent precipitation across the region,
sporadic fine fuels may be receptive to fire, keeping fire weather
concerns fairly localized. See the previous discussion for more
information.
..Elizalde-Garcia/Wendt.. 02/27/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0132 AM CST Fri Feb 27 2026/
...Synopsis...
Mid-level ridging will remain in place across the western CONUS with
northwesterly mid-level flow downstream of this feature. This will
support another day of dry, downslope flow in the lee of the Rockies
ahead of a southward surging cold front.
...Portions of eastern Wyoming into northeastern Colorado and the
Nebraska Panhandle...
Strong northwesterly flow in the mid-levels will lead to the
enhancement of lee troughing across the central and northern High
Plains as high pressure builds to the West. This will support a
strong cross-terrain pressure gradient that will yield dry downslope
flow in the lee of the central Rockies and Laramie Range, with
sustained surface winds of 15-25 mph and isolated gusts of 35-45 mph
expected (locally higher in terrain-favored areas). Deep, boundary
layer mixing coupled with the dry downslope flow will simultaneously
favor afternoon RH values falling into the 15-20% range (locally as
low as 10%). With multiple days of strong, dry downslope winds
preceding D1/Friday, fuels are expected to be receptive to fire.
Given these factors, elevated to locally critical fire weather
conditions are likely for at least a few hours across portions of
eastern Wyoming into the Nebraska Panhandle and southward toward the
Palmer Divide this afternoon.
...Portions of central into east-central New Mexico...
Lower RH values of 10-15% are likely to extend farther south into
portions of southeastern New Mexico and western Texas; however,
winds are expected to remain light. The one exception will be across
portions of central into east-central New Mexico where a band of
modest northwesterly mid-level flow will support dry, downslope
winds in the lee of the Sandia Manzano Mountains. Sustained westerly
surface winds of 15-20 mph are expected to overlap very low RH
values of 10-20% for at least a few hours this afternoon. Given
warm, dry antecedent conditions, this overlap is expected to support
Elevated fire weather conditions this afternoon.
...Northern Plains into the Midwest...
A southward advancing surface cold front will promote a strong
surface pressure gradient across portions of the northern Plains
into the western Corn Belt this afternoon. Widespread 20-30 mph
sustained northwesterly surface winds ahead of this front are
expected to overlap RH values of 20-30%. Farther south and east,
lighter southwesterly winds of 10-20 mph are expected to overlap RH
of 20-30% ahead of a surface pressure trough from southwestern
Missouri into western Illinois. Given that fuels are expected to be
only modestly receptive across the region, Elevated fire weather
concerns should remain localized.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
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