RSS Mesoscale Discussions from Storm Prediction Center
No watches are valid as of Mon Feb 23 19:19:02 UTC 2026.
No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Mon Feb 23 19:19:02 UTC 2026.
SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0951 AM CST Mon Feb 23 2026
Valid 231630Z - 241200Z
...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are not expected today or tonight.
...Synopsis...
A pronounced mid-level trough and associated deep surface low will
continue to progress further into the Atlantic, leading to upper
ridging over the Intermountain West and broad northwest flow across
the central CONUS today. Surface high pressure and an accompanying
continental polar airmass will overspread much of the U.S. east of
the Rockies through the period, limiting thunderstorm potential.
..Squitieri.. 02/23/2026
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SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1058 AM CST Mon Feb 23 2026
Valid 241200Z - 251200Z
...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are not expected across the US on Tuesday.
...Synopsis and Discussion...
Moderate northwesterly flow aloft is forecast to extend across the
majority of the CONUS early Tuesday. Several shortwave troughs are
expected to move within the this northwesterly flow, including one
forecast to move across the Upper Midwest, Upper Great Lakes, and
adjacent northwestern Ontario.
A deepening lee trough, and likely lee low development, will help
tighten the surface pressure gradient across the Plains. Resulting
southerly flow across the Southern Plains will encourage some modest
low-level moisture return is anticipated late Tuesday through
Wednesday morning across the TX Gulf Coast. However, the previously
mentioned shortwave is expected to remain displaced well north of
this low-level moisture and any associated buoyancy, precluding
thunderstorm developing across the CONUS.
A shortwave trough will also move into the Pacific Northwest early
Wednesday morning. Cool and moist profiles are expected to be in
place Tuesday morning, with some mid-level drying anticipated across
the region throughout the day ahead of this wave. Some additional
cooling/moistening is possible along the WA coast early morning as
the wave moves through. However, stable conditions will prevail
throughout the period, with no lightning anticipated.
..Mosier.. 02/23/2026
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SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0105 PM CST Mon Feb 23 2026
Valid 251200Z - 261200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms will be possible late Wednesday night into early
Thursday morning across portions of the Ozarks east into the
Tennessee Valley.
...Synopsis and Discussion...
A shortwave trough is forecast to progress quickly from the Pacific
Northwest in the central Plains/Mid MO Valley on Wednesday, moving
within the broadly cyclonic upper flow expected to be in place
across the CONUS. Deepening surface lee troughing is anticipated
ahead of this wave, with cyclogenesis eventually yielding a low that
progresses across the TX Panhandle during the evening and along the
Red River overnight.
A moistening warm sector will precede this surface low and its
parent shortwave, with mid 50s dewpoints reaching across much of
eastern OK and southern/central AR by early Thursday morning. 60s
dewpoints will likely remain confined farther south along the TX
Coast, with warm temperatures aloft precluding deep convection
throughout the warm sector. However, strengthening low to mid-level
flow is anticipated throughout the warm sector, resulting in
moderate to strong warm-air advection across the frontal zone
extending northeastward from the Red River surface low. Showers and
a few thunderstorms are possible across the Mid-South and TN Valley
as limited but sufficient buoyancy develops amid the moistening low
to mid-levels and cool temperatures aloft. A few thunderstorms are
also possible immediately ahead of a weak triple point low farther
west in the vicinity of the confluence of the MS and OH rivers.
..Mosier.. 02/23/2026
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SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0956 AM CST Mon Feb 23 2026
Valid 231700Z - 241200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTH FLORIDA...
...Morning Update...
Elevated highlights have been expanded to cover the FL Panhandle,
Central Gulf Coast, and southeastern LA. Despite some areas
receiving recent wetting rainfall, multiple new starts yesterday
afternoon in Louisiana heighten concerns for spotty fuel
receptiveness. Given the entire Central Gulf Coast may see RH values
below 35% and sustained northwesterly winds of 10-20 mph, Elevated
fire weather conditions are expected. Parts of Southern Florida are
already experiencing Critical fire weather conditions this morning.
RH values are expected to drop to 25-35% and sustained northwesterly
surface winds increasing to 10-15 mph (locally higher gusts 20-30
mph) this afternoon.
See the previous discussion for more information.
..Garcia/Thornton.. 02/23/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0101 AM CST Mon Feb 23 2026/
...Synopsis...
...Florida...
A dry airmass will move down the peninsula today in the wake of a
cold front. Recent precipitation has mitigated some fuel
receptiveness, particularly in North/Central Florida. However, South
Florida has remained rather dry and fuels will be receptive to
ignitions/spread. Winds will generally be stronger in the morning,
before slowly weakening into the afternoon/evening. During the
afternoon, winds of 10-15 mph can be expected. Given persistent
surface winds down the peninsula, RH may be near Elevated criteria
even early this morning. RH values by afternoon will be 25-35% in
the north with around 20% in the south. Critical fire weather is
expected in South Florida with elevated to locally critical
elsewhere.
...Southern High Plains...
Winds of 15-20 mph and RH of 10-20% are possible during the
afternoon. Lack of recent rainfall has continued to allow fuels to
dry. Elevated fire weather can be expected.
...Central Gulf Coast...
Dry offshore flow will continue today. Despite RH of 20-25% in some
areas, winds will generally be too light to promote more than
locally elevated concerns.
...Southeast Wyoming...
It is possible that locally elevated conditions will occur today as
winds increase due to a modest lee trough and increasing mid-level
winds. Mid/upper clouds will potentially keep temperatures cool and
RH higher. Fuel receptiveness is also uncertain given recent
precipitation.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
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SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0117 PM CST Mon Feb 23 2026
Valid 241200Z - 251200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTHEAST COLORADO INTO PARTS OF
THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...
...20z Update...
Critical fire weather highlights have been expanded farther north
into southeastern CO and farther east into the Rolling Plains of TX.
Recent model guidance has increased probabilities of combined
(west-southwesterly) wind speeds greater than 20 mph and RH values
less than 15% within the Critical area. These conditions atop dry
and recently receptive fuels will support ignition and fire spread
throughout the afternoon on Tuesday.
Southeast WY into western NE will experience very strong downslope
winds of 35-45 mph (locally stronger gusts up to 70 mph) late
Tuesday morning into the overnight hours. Given recent snowfall,
expected cloud cover, and minimum RH of 30-40%, Elevated fire
highlights have been withheld.
See the previous discussion for more information.
..Elizalde-Garcia/Thornton.. 02/23/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0103 AM CST Mon Feb 23 2026/
...Synopsis...
...Southeast Colorado into southern High Plains...
Mid-level flow will increase across the central and southern Rockies
on Tuesday. A modestly deep lee cyclone will promote downslope winds
from southeast Colorado into northeastern/east-central New Mexico.
Winds of 20-25 mph appear possible, especially within the more
terrain-favored locations. RH of 10-15% will also be common. Dry
fuels will continue to support ignition and spread in this
environment. Critical fire weather is most likely in southeast
Colorado into eastern New Mexico and parts of the Texas South
Plains. Farther south, weaker winds will keep fire weather concerns
Elevated within the Trans-Pecos/Big Bend regions.
...Southern Plains into the Ozarks...
Ahead of the surface front, stout, gusty southerly/southwesterly
winds are expected from the Texas Rolling Plains into much of
Oklahoma and Ozarks. Mid/high clouds will be increasingly probable
with northeastward extent. However, the dry return flow will allow
RH of fall into the 15-25% range. Winds of 15-20 mph will occur
during the afternoon. Strong flow within the lowest 2 km will also
promote stronger gusts. Most areas have not observed precipitation
recently and fuels remain receptive.
...Southeast Wyoming into the Front Range...
Given the pressure gradient across the terrain, dry downslope winds
will be possible in these areas. Recent precipitation has mitigated
fuels dryness in the short term. Furthermore, mid/upper clouds
appear likely which will create some uncertainty in how low RH will
fall. Locally elevated conditions do appear possible where fuels are
drier as pockets of stronger wind are possible.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
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