RSS Mesoscale Discussions from Storm Prediction Center
WW 170 TORNADO AR LA OK TX 281545Z - 290000Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Tornado Watch Number 170
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1045 AM CDT Tue Apr 28 2026
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Tornado Watch for portions of
Arkansas
Northern Louisiana
Southeast Oklahoma
Northeast Texas
* Effective this Tuesday morning and evening from 1045 AM until
700 PM CDT.
* Primary threats include...
A few tornadoes and a couple intense tornadoes possible
Scattered damaging winds and isolated significant gusts to 75
mph likely
Scattered large hail likely with isolated very large hail events
to 3 inches in diameter possible
SUMMARY...The air mass across the region should quickly destabilize
as cloud-clearing occurs in the presence of a moist environment.
Large hail will be the most common concern initially, but damaging
wind and tornado potential are expected to steadily increase through
the afternoon regionally.
The tornado watch area is approximately along and 90 statute miles
north and south of a line from 35 miles north of Paris TX to 45
miles east of Pine Bluff AR. For a complete depiction of the watch
see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU0).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for
tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch
area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for
threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements
and possible warnings.
&&
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 168...WW 169...
AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail
surface and aloft to 3 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind
gusts to 65 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 550. Mean
storm motion vector 27025.
...Guyer
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WW 169 SEVERE TSTM AR MO OK 281515Z - 282300Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 169
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1015 AM CDT Tue Apr 28 2026
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of
Northern Arkansas
Southern Missouri
Eastern Oklahoma
* Effective this Tuesday morning and evening from 1015 AM until
600 PM CDT.
* Primary threats include...
Scattered large hail likely with isolated very large hail events
to 3 inches in diameter possible
Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible
A tornado or two possible
SUMMARY...Initially elevated storms will continue to expand/increase
east-northeastward into this afternoon. Large hail will be the main
risk initially today, but surfaced-based storms, including damaging
wind potential, may increase later this afternoon, especially across
the Ozarks.
The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 70
statute miles north and south of a line from 25 miles west northwest
of Muskogee OK to 25 miles east northeast of West Plains MO. For a
complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline
update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU9).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.
&&
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 168...
AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
3 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A
few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector
25030.
...Guyer
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WW 168 SEVERE TSTM OK TX 281030Z - 281800Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 168
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
530 AM CDT Tue Apr 28 2026
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of
Southern Oklahoma
Western North into North-Central Texas
* Effective this Tuesday morning and afternoon from 530 AM until
100 PM CDT.
* Primary threats include...
Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 3
inches in diameter likely
Isolated damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible
SUMMARY...Mainly elevated supercells should pose a threat for large
to very large hail (up to 2-3 inches in diameter) as they spread
east-northeastward. Later this morning some clustering may occur,
with occasional damaging winds possible.
The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 45
statute miles north and south of a line from 115 miles west of
Wichita Falls TX to 30 miles north northeast of Durant OK. For a
complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline
update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU8).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.
&&
AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
3 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A
few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector
25035.
...Gleason
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WW 0170 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0170 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET
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WW 0169 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0169 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET
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WW 0168 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 168
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 SW SPS TO
15 WNW LTS.
..MEAD..04/28/26
ATTN...WFO...OUN...FWD...LUB...SJT...
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 168
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
OKC005-013-019-029-031-033-049-065-067-069-085-095-099-123-137-
141-281440-
OK
. OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ATOKA BRYAN CARTER
COAL COMANCHE COTTON
GARVIN JACKSON JEFFERSON
JOHNSTON LOVE MARSHALL
MURRAY PONTOTOC STEPHENS
TILLMAN
TXC009-023-077-097-237-337-485-487-503-281440-
TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ARCHER BAYLOR CLAY
COOKE JACK MONTAGUE
WICHITA WILBARGER YOUNG
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
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MD 0594 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR CENTRAL PARTS OF MISSISSIPPI AND ALABAMA
Mesoscale Discussion 0594
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1050 AM CDT Tue Apr 28 2026
Areas affected...central parts of Mississippi and Alabama
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible
Valid 281550Z - 281745Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent
SUMMARY...The potential for damaging winds and large hail is
expected to increase across the area this afternoon. Convective
trends are being monitored for a possible Severe Thunderstorm Watch.
DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms have persisted through much of the
morning across the discussion area with that activity being driven
by modest low-level warm advection occurring along and to the north
of an outflow boundary extending from around Greenwood, MS to north
of Selma and Montgomery in Alabama. The 12z JAN sounding revealed
the eastern edge of the elevated-mixed layer has spread east into
the lower MS Valley, which when coupled with a moist boundary layer
is resulting in estimated MLCAPE of 2000-2500 J/kg as of 15z.
The 12z CAMs offer various scenarios with respect specific details
on thunderstorm evolution today. Some solutions suggest in situ
storm intensification/coalescence into smaller, forward propagating
complexes, while others indicate the primary severe weather threat
being associated with a complex of storms arriving from the ArkLaTex
later today. Regardless, the general notion is for a gradual
increase in surface-based storm coverage and intensity in the
vicinity of the outflow boundary this afternoon. Relatively strong,
mid/upper-level flow evident in the 12z JAN/BMX soundings will
support the potential for supercells and bowing structures capable
of large hail and damaging wind gusts. The tornado threat is
somewhat conditional and likely tied to any storms that can
favorably interact with the outflow boundary.
..Mead/Guyer.. 04/28/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...BMX...MEG...JAN...
LAT...LON 32979029 33789030 33978939 33648785 33218626 32428618
32398761 32748957 32979029
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-125 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN
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MD 0593 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY FOR NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA INTO SOUTHERN MISSOURI AND NORTHERN ARKANSAS
Mesoscale Discussion 0593
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1001 AM CDT Tue Apr 28 2026
Areas affected...northeast Oklahoma into southern Missouri and
northern Arkansas
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely
Valid 281501Z - 281700Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent
SUMMARY...Strong to severe thunderstorms are expected to increase in
areal coverage across the discussion area this morning. Large hail
will be the primary hazard initially, with damaging wind potential
increasing this afternoon. A Severe Thunderstorm watch will likely
be required to address this severe weather threat.
DISCUSSION...Recent radar trends indicate thunderstorms gradually
increasing in coverage across portions of eastern OK, driven largely
by a low-level warm advection regime occurring to the north of a
surface boundary stalled across southeast OK into central AR. RAP
proximity soundings suggest the developing storms are rooted in a
moist layer centered around 850 mb, with steep mid-level lapse rates
contributing to MUCAPE of 1500-2000 J/kg.
Water vapor imagery shows a vigorous short-wave trough moving into
western KS this morning with an area of downstream, implied forcing
for ascent progressively overspreading the discussion area over the
next several hours. That combined with the available reservoir of
moderate, elevated instability, and relatively strong cloud-bearing
shear will support the potential for elevated supercells capable of
large hail initially. Some cloud breaks (evident in visible
satellite) may allow for a subset of the elevated storms to become
surface-based by afternoon, at which point, a damaging wind threat
would increase.
..Mead/Guyer.. 04/28/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...PAH...LSX...LZK...SGF...TSA...
LAT...LON 35769576 36959488 37869282 37869097 36649096 36149149
35549395 35169505 35769576
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-125 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...2.00-3.50 IN
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MD 0592 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 168... FOR SOUTH-CENTRAL OKLAHOMA AND NORTH-CENTRAL TEXAS INTO CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ARKANSAS AND NORTHERN LOUISIANA
Mesoscale Discussion 0592
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0933 AM CDT Tue Apr 28 2026
Areas affected...south-central Oklahoma and north-central Texas into
central and southern Arkansas and northern Louisiana
Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 168...
Valid 281433Z - 281630Z
The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 168
continues.
SUMMARY...Thunderstorms are expected to increase in areal coverage
across the discussion area this morning with all severe-weather
hazards becoming possible. Convective trends are being monitored for
an additional downstream watch.
DISCUSSION...As of 14:20z, mosaic radar data showed thunderstorms
gradually increasing in coverage across south-central OK and
north-central TX with the strongest storm being a supercell over
Montague County, TX. That storm is located very near or just to the
south of a warm front that extends from low pressure over western
north Texas east-northeast into central AR. The south of that
boundary, visible satellite shows deepening moist convection near
and to the southeast of the Dallas-Ft. Worth metroplex. The 12z FWD
sounding sampled a very moist boundary layer surmounted by steep
mid-level lapse rates, yielding MLCAPE of 3500 J/kg. The cap was not
overly strong, and latest model guidance suggests a gradual increase
in thunderstorm activity this morning from the vicinity of the
ongoing storms over south-central OK and north-central TX eastward
toward the ArkLaTex.
Regional 12z soundings sampled the presence of strong,
mid/upper-level winds, which will combine with the moderate to
strong instability to support higher-order storm modes, including
supercells and bowing structures capable of large to very large hail
and damaging winds as the primary hazards. The greatest potential
for a few tornadoes will exist with storms that can favorably
interact with the warm front in the area.
..Mead/Guyer.. 04/28/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...JAN...LZK...SHV...TSA...FWD...OUN...
LAT...LON 33969822 35109776 34979227 34469194 33739182 32829211
32849425 33029630 33259750 33489807 33969822
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-125 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...2.00-3.50 IN
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SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0700 AM CDT Tue Apr 28 2026
Valid 281300Z - 291200Z
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND
MID-SOUTH...
...SUMMARY...
Multiple rounds of severe thunderstorms will occur across parts of
the southern Plains into the lower Mississippi/Tennessee Valleys and
Southeast through this evening. Very large to giant hail (2-4+
inches), swaths of severe/damaging winds, and a few tornadoes are
all possible.
...Southern Plains into the Lower Mississippi Valley/Southeast...
With large-scale upper troughing anchored over the Plains and
central Canada, an embedded mid-level shortwave trough will eject
eastward across the southern/central Plains to the lower/mid MS
Valleys by this evening. Rich low-level moisture continues to spread
northward from TX into southern OK this morning in tandem with a
low-level jet, and this trend should continue downstream into the
lower MS Valley through the day as a warm front lifts northward to a
weak surface low across the Ozarks. Another surface low will remain
over northwest TX, with a dryline extending southwestward to the Big
Bend region.
A strongly unstable airmass exists across the southern Plains to the
ArkLaTex, along and near a slowly retreating/northward-returning
warm front. Elevated supercells are ongoing across western north TX.
This activity is being aided by lift and strong deep-layer shear
associated with the ejecting mid-level shortwave trough, and
low-level warm/moist advection. Current expectations are for these
supercells to continue posing a threat for mainly large to very
large hail through the rest of the morning as they spread
east-northeastward across north TX/southern OK. But, eventual
clustering and a greater damaging wind threat may materialize into
the afternoon as this convection crosses the front and accesses
greater instability across AR and the Ozarks.
Additional surface-based convective development is forecast near the
triple point in north-central TX towards the ArkLaTex this
afternoon, where extreme instability (4000+ J/kg MLCAPE) and very
strong deep-layer shear (50-60+ kt) will support the potential for
multiple intense supercells. Very large to giant hail (2-4+ inches)
may occur with the strongest supercells given the overall very
favorable environment and presence of steep mid-level lapse rates.
Some tornado threat may also exist with these supercells, even
though low-level shear is not forecast to be overly strong.
Numerous to widespread convection across the Mid-South to southern
Appalachians has generally diminished in intensity this morning. In
its wake, airmass recovery is anticipated today across the lower MS
Valley and Mid-South. A convectively reinforced front/outflow
boundary from the morning thunderstorms should attempt to lift
northward some through the day, with the greater instability
forecast across the lower MS Valley where steep mid-level lapse
rates are in place. Convective evolution across these areas through
the evening remains unclear, but multiple rounds of supercells and
multicell clusters capable of producing large hail, scattered to
numerous damaging winds, and perhaps a few tornadoes appear likely.
Less instability is forecast to the north of the ongoing convection
across the TN Valley, but some airmass recovery and severe threat
still appears possible by late afternoon/early evening.
..Gleason/Jewell.. 04/28/2026
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