RSS Mesoscale Discussions from Storm Prediction Center
No watches are valid as of Sat Mar 28 20:04:02 UTC 2026.
No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Sat Mar 28 20:04:02 UTC 2026.
SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1051 AM CDT Sat Mar 28 2026
Valid 281630Z - 291200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not forecast across the contiguous United
States through tonight.
...Synopsis...
An upper trough over the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic states will move
east into the western Atlantic and become increasingly displaced
from the Southeast U.S. A southward-moving cold front, evident in
visible satellite imagery over the Gulf Stream east of north FL,
will move across the FL Peninsula before becoming less defined and
decelerating as it encounters a sub-tropical airmass over south FL
and the Bahamian archipelago. Strong heating and modest buoyancy
will support isolated to widely scattered convection mainly along
this boundary during the afternoon and evening, fostered by both
convergence along the front and sea breeze boundary. Limited
buoyancy and weak shear will likely preclude severe thunderstorms.
..Smith/Bunting.. 03/28/2026
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SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0218 PM CDT Sat Mar 28 2026
Valid 282000Z - 291200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not forecast across the contiguous United
States through tonight.
...20z Update...
No changes are needed to the current D1 Convective Outlook. See
previous discussion below for more information.
..Thornton.. 03/28/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1051 AM CDT Sat Mar 28 2026/
...Synopsis...
An upper trough over the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic states will move
east into the western Atlantic and become increasingly displaced
from the Southeast U.S. A southward-moving cold front, evident in
visible satellite imagery over the Gulf Stream east of north FL,
will move across the FL Peninsula before becoming less defined and
decelerating as it encounters a sub-tropical airmass over south FL
and the Bahamian archipelago. Strong heating and modest buoyancy
will support isolated to widely scattered convection mainly along
this boundary during the afternoon and evening, fostered by both
convergence along the front and sea breeze boundary. Limited
buoyancy and weak shear will likely preclude severe thunderstorms.
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SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1251 PM CDT Sat Mar 28 2026
Valid 291200Z - 301200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated thunderstorms are possible across portions of southern
Arizona and the southern Florida Peninsula Sunday afternoon and
evening. Severe thunderstorms are not expected.
...Synopsis...
A zonal flow regime will exist across the CONUS on Sunday, with the
main upper jet situated across the northern States. Areas of cooler
air aloft will exist from Baja CA and extending into parts of the
Southwest, with warmer air aloft across the Gulf Coast.
At the surface, a prominent area of high pressure will be centered
over the Mid Atlantic, with ridge extending across the southeastern
states and into the northern Gulf. A surface trough will develop
across the High Plains, with early cycle moisture return across the
Plains.
Thunderstorm chances will be limited to parts of southern AZ during
the late afternoon as heating, steep lapse rates aloft and
increasing low-level moisture support marginal instability in a weak
shear environment. Locally gusty winds are likely with storms over
southern AZ.
Elsewhere, a deep easterly low-level flow regime will exist across
FL, and although midlevel lapse rates will be poor, heating along
with deep moisture through 700 mb may support isolated
thunderstorms.
..Jewell.. 03/28/2026
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SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0219 PM CDT Sat Mar 28 2026
Valid 301200Z - 311200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN
IOWA INTO LOWER MICHIGAN...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across portions
of the upper Mississippi River Valley to Lower Michigan late Monday
night into early Tuesday morning.
...Discussion...
A progressive low-amplitude shortwave trough will move across the
northern Rockies and into the northern Plains Monday into Tuesday
morning, with cooling aloft spreading into the upper MS Valley/Great
Lakes late. Ahead of this feature, low pressure will develop over
the northern Plains during the day, translating east across IA and
toward WI overnight and into Tuesday morning.
East of the developing low, a quasi-stationary front will extend
across southern MN into central WI and northern Lower MI, with
little northward progress. Southerly winds across the warm sector
will persist through the period and bring mid 50s F dewpoints
northward toward the surface front. Much of the day looks to be
capped, but increasing lift after 00Z along with persistent
moistening from the southwest will result in elevated instability,
possibly extending as far northern WI/Lower MI. Deep-layer shear
will favor hail.
A conditional risk of a few severe storms may also develop south of
the boundary from eastern IA into northern IL as the low-level jet
increases during the evening. In addition to hail, the warm/dry
sub-cloud layer would favor potential damaging gusts with any
cluster of storms.
..Jewell.. 03/28/2026
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SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1142 AM CDT Sat Mar 28 2026
Valid 281700Z - 291200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTHEASTERN WYOMING...
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR
PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS...
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN SOUTH
CAROLINA...SOUTHERN GEORGIA...AND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...
...Southeast...
A cooler, but very dry continental air mass continues to filter into
much of the eastern U.S. as high pressure settles into the Ohio
River Valley as an upper-level trough departs the Eastern Seaboard.
Sustained northeasterly post-frontal winds at 10-15 mph with higher
gusts and low relative humidity already in the 20-30% range will
affect a substantial portion the Southeast from the Carolinas, GA,
AL and into the Lower MS River Valley. The strongest corridor of
northeasterly winds, reaching 20 mph at times, will be across the
coastal plains of SC, GA and into the FL Panhandle, supporting
critical fire weather conditions within dry fuels and extreme
drought. A slight northeastward expansion of Critical Highlights
were made into central SC based on current observations and short
term guidance trends.
...Central/Northern Great Plains...
No significant changes were necessary from previous outlook. An
expansive region of dry return flow commencing between surface high
pressure across the OH River Valley and nascent lee troughing across
the central/northern High Plains, will persist through today under a
reinforcing southerly low-level jet. South to southwest winds of
20-30 mph with relative humidity of 15-20% will bring critical fire
weather conditions to much of western/northern KS, eastern NE into
portions of the Upper Midwest. Marginally lower wind speeds and
slightly higher RH will still support and Elevated fire weather
threat adjacent to this Critical area.
...Southeastern Wyoming...
Dry and breezy conditions developing under modest mid-level flow
supported by a well-mixed boundary layer are expected across much of
central and southern WY today. The strongest corridor of west winds
between 20-25 mph coupled with minimum RH of 10-15% will bring
critical fire weather conditions to southeastern WY today. No
significant changes to the Critical and surrounding Elevated
Highlights were necessary with previous forecast on track.
...Southern Great Basin and Arizona Strip...
Dry conditions with RH around 10-15% and southwest winds of around
15 mph, locally 20-25 mph under a passing mid-level short wave will
bring an elevated fire weather threat to portions of southeastern
NV, southwest UT and northwestern AZ through this afternoon.
..Williams.. 03/28/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0104 AM CDT Sat Mar 28 2026/
...Synopsis...
Enhanced, zonal mid-level flow across the central/northern Rockies
will support lee troughing over portions of the High Plains today.
Farther east, surface high pressure will shift from the Midwest to
the East Coast in the wake of a mid-level trough moving across the
Northeast, with a tightened pressure gradient and strong low-level
jet developing between the surface high and lee troughing.
...Central/northern Great Plains...
The aforementioned surface pressure gradient and low-level jet
across the Great Plains will support strong southerly flow of 20-30
mph across much of the central/northern Great Plains. With dry,
receptive fuels and RH values forecast to fall to 15-20%, widespread
critical fire weather conditions are forecast from portions of the
Oklahoma Panhandle northeastward into portions of southeastern South
Dakota, southwestern Minnesota, and western Iowa. Strong 850 mb flow
of 30-40+ kts coupled with boundary layer mixing will promote
occasional gusts to 35-45 mph. Sustained southerly surface winds of
15-25 mph and reduced RH values of 20-25% will bring elevated fire
weather concerns to adjacent areas of the central/northern Great
Plains and western Corn Belt, except for portions of south-central
and southeastern Kansas that saw appreciable rainfall Thursday
evening.
...Southeast...
A dry and breezy post-frontal regime will bring widespread fire
weather concerns to much of the Southeast today, with sustained
northeasterly surface winds of 10-15 mph, low RH of 25-35%, and dry,
antecedent conditions supporting elevated fire weather concerns
across much of the region. Elevated conditions may be locally
tempered across portions of NC that saw more appreciable rainfall on
Friday. Critical conditions are expected across portions of southern
SC into southern GA and the central Florida Panhandle where a
corridor of enhanced northeasterly winds of 15-20 mph and RH values
as low as 20% are forecast.
...Central/northern High Plains...
Modest mid-level flow across the central/northern Rockies will
support a dry, downslope regime across portions of the central and
northern High Plains this afternoon. The return of above normal
temperatures coupled with sustained westerly winds of 20-25 mph amid
RH values of 10-15% will bring at least a few hours of critical fire
weather conditions to portions of southeastern Wyoming, especially
in the lee of the Laramie Mountains. Deep boundary layer mixing and
the previously mentioned mid-level flow will also support periodic
gusts of 30-35 mph across this region. Elevated fire weather
conditions are expected farther west across much of western Wyoming
and in the lee of the Sangre de Cristo Mountains in southeastern
Colorado where sustained winds of 15-25 mph are forecast to overlap
receptive fuels and reduced RH of 15-20%.
...Southern Great Basin and Arizona Strip...
A subtle, mid-level shortwave trough will move northeastward along
the northwestern periphery of a building ridge. This feature will
support dry and breezy southwest flow across portions of the
southern Great Basin and northwestern Arizona. Southwest winds of
15-25 mph and RH values of 10-15% (locally lower) will bring
elevated fire weather conditions this afternoon amid increasingly
dry fuels.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
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SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0302 PM CDT Sat Mar 28 2026
Valid 291200Z - 301200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTHEASTERN WYOMING...
...Southeastern Wyoming...
Critical Highlights were added to portions of southeastern WY. Deep
layer westerly flow at the apex of an upper-level ridge will persist
over the Northern Rockies through D2/Sunday. Despite some high cloud
cover moving into the Intermountain West, a dry, well mixed-boundary
layer should promote stronger surface winds, particularly across
southeastern WY, where near record high temperatures and relative
humidity of around 15% will align to promote critical fire weather
conditions for Sunday.
...Eastern Great Basin...Northwestern Arizona into western WY and CO
Western Slope...
Existing elevated fire weather highlights were expanded to include
eastern UT and western CO. A very dry and warm air mass under the
ridge across the Intermountain West will persist into Sunday. A
weak, mid-level wave will bolster southwest winds across the region
as relative humidity falls into the 15-20% range by afternoon,
possibly as low as 10% in some lower elevation areas. West-southwest
winds of 15-20 mph will combine with low RH, near record high
temperatures and drying fuels to bring an elevated fire weather
threat to portions of southeastern NV and northwestern AZ into
southern UT, western CO and western WY.
...Blue Ridge Mountains and Eastern Tennessee Valley...
Dry return flow commences Sunday across the Southeast as surface
high pressure slides east of the Mid Atlantic. Southerly winds up to
15 mph coupled with relative humidity as low as 15% will support an
elevated fire weather threat across the eastern TN Valley and
adjacent Cumberland Plateau areas amid an increasingly dry
fuelscape.
...Southern Plains...
Surface lee troughing across the Southern Plains and persistently
westerly flow aloft should bring dry downslope flow into eastern NM
northward into south-central CO along and east of the leeward slopes
of the Sangre De Cristo Mountains. West winds of around 15 mph and
relative humidity as low as 10% will pose an elevated fire weather
threat for Sunday. Extended Elevated Highlights into the TX
Panhandle and western OK as southwest winds of 10-20 mph amid RH
between 15-25% develops in response to lee troughing across the
Central Plains. A return of deeper Gulf moisture across eastern
TX/OK should limit RH reductions, mitigating the overall fire
weather threat.
...Southern Arizona...
Increasing mid and upper-level moisture across the Desert Southwest
along with afternoon heating and resultant instability should
support isolated showers and thunderstorms across southern AZ Sunday
afternoon. PWATs of 0.5-0.8" with a prominent dry sub-cloud layer
should limit precipitation, allowing some threat of dry
thunderstorms to evolve. Fuels remain receptive with isolated dry
thunderstorm threat now primarily within southern AZ based on latest
model guidance.
..Williams.. 03/28/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0235 AM CDT Sat Mar 28 2026/
...Synopsis...
A persistent upper-level ridge will begin to slide southeastward to
the far southern Great Plains on D2/Sunday, while enhanced, zonal
flow persists across the northern Rockies. At the surface, high
pressure will move offshore of the Mid-Atlantic Coast, bringing
return flow to much of the southern Plains and Southeast. A cold
front will begin to push southward across the northern Great Plains
and Northwest.
...Portions of the central/northern High Plains...
Modest westerly, mid-level flow will persist across portions of the
central/northern Rockies on D2/Sunday, favoring a dry, downslope
regime across much of Wyoming. Westerly winds of 15-25 mph are
expected to overlap low RH values of 10-20%. With receptive fuels in
place across the region, this will bring elevated fire weather
concerns to much of southern and central Wyoming into extreme
northern Colorado and the extreme western Nebraska Panhandle.
Consideration was given to a localized area of Critical highlights
across portions of central/southeast Wyoming, but uncertainty
remains regarding a more widespread overlap of RH less than 15% and
20+ mph winds at this time. Regardless, localized critical
conditions appears possible, and trends will be monitored for the
possibility of a future upgrade.
Some high-res guidance suggests that locally elevated conditions may
occur in association with a brief period of stronger surface winds
(15-20 mph) funneling down the North Platte River Valley farther
east across western Nebraska. However, most current guidance
suggests that winds will largely remain less than 15 mph across this
region. Thus, elevated highlights were withheld at this time despite
minimum RH values forecast around 10-20%.
...Southern Great Basin...
Dry and breezy flow is forecast across portions of the southern
Great Basin Sunday afternoon ahead of a weak, mid-level shortwave
trough. Elevated fire weather conditions are expected where
southwesterly winds of 15-20 mph, very low RH of 15-20%, and
abnormally dry fuels align.
...Northeastern New Mexico...
While mid-level flow is forecast to remain rather weak across much
of the southern Rockies, a corridor of marginally enhanced westerly
flow aloft is forecast to support dry, downslope winds across
portions of northeastern New Mexico. Sustained westerly winds of
15-20 mph are forecast to overlap very low RH of 10-15% for at least
a few hours Sunday afternoon. With receptive fuels in place across
the region, this will bring elevated fire weather concerns to
portions of northeastern New Mexico.
...Southern Arizona into southwestern New Mexico...
Weak southwesterly flow aloft along the northwestern periphery of an
upper-level ridge is forecast to yield increasing mid/upper level
Pacific moisture, with PWATs forecast to range from 0.5-0.8" by
Sunday afternoon. While better moisture appears to be delayed until
later Sunday night and into Monday, latest guidance depicts the
development of weak instability (~50-150 J/kg MUCAPE) across
portions of southern Arizona/southwestern New Mexico late Sunday
afternoon. Precipitation totals are forecast to be light, with deep,
dry boundary layers and LCLs around 3 km AGL. This should support at
least some potential for isolated dry thunder atop dry, receptive
fuels.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
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