RSS Mesoscale Discussions from Storm Prediction Center
WW 9 TORNADO FL GA CW 151800Z - 160100Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Tornado Watch Number 9
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
100 PM EST Sun Feb 15 2026
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Tornado Watch for portions of
Northern Florida
Southern Georgia
Coastal Waters
* Effective this Sunday afternoon and evening from 100 PM until
800 PM EST.
* Primary threats include...
A couple tornadoes possible
Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible
SUMMARY...A broken line of thunderstorms will continue to move
quickly east-northeastward across parts of northern Florida and
southern Georgia this afternoon and evening. Scattered damaging
winds with peak gusts up to 60-70 mph should be the main threat, but
a couple of brief line-embedded tornadoes also appear possible.
The tornado watch area is approximately along and 55 statute miles
east and west of a line from 60 miles north of Waycross GA to 30
miles south of Gainesville FL. For a complete depiction of the watch
see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU9).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for
tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch
area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for
threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements
and possible warnings.
&&
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 8...
AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail
surface and aloft to 1 inch. Extreme turbulence and surface wind
gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 400. Mean
storm motion vector 26040.
...Gleason
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WW 8 TORNADO AL FL GA CW 151335Z - 152000Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Tornado Watch Number 8
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
835 AM EST Sun Feb 15 2026
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Tornado Watch for portions of
Far Southeast Alabama
Florida Panhandle
Southwest Georgia
Coastal Waters
* Effective this Sunday morning and afternoon from 835 AM until
300 PM EST.
* Primary threats include...
A couple tornadoes possible
Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible
SUMMARY...A squall line will continue east across the Watch through
the morning and into the afternoon as the airmass destabilizes over
the Watch area. The risk for damaging wind gusts (60-70 mph) will
likely concentrate near inflections and cellular portions of the
squall line. A few mesovortices are also possible and may yield a
threat for a couple of tornadoes.
The tornado watch area is approximately along and 75 statute miles
north and south of a line from 40 miles west northwest of Panama
City FL to 15 miles north of Valdosta GA. For a complete depiction
of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS
WOU8).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for
tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch
area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for
threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements
and possible warnings.
&&
AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail
surface and aloft to 0.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind
gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 350. Mean
storm motion vector 25035.
...Smith
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WW 0009 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 9
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 S VLD TO
35 W AYS TO 35 NE VDI.
..DEAN..02/15/26
ATTN...WFO...JAX...TBW...CHS...FFC...
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 9
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
FLC001-003-007-019-023-031-035-041-047-075-083-089-107-109-121-
125-152140-
FL
. FLORIDA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ALACHUA BAKER BRADFORD
CLAY COLUMBIA DUVAL
FLAGLER GILCHRIST HAMILTON
LEVY MARION NASSAU
PUTNAM ST. JOHNS SUWANNEE
UNION
GAC001-025-039-049-065-101-127-183-191-229-267-299-305-152140-
GA
. GEORGIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
APPLING BRANTLEY CAMDEN
CHARLTON CLINCH ECHOLS
GLYNN LONG MCINTOSH
PIERCE TATTNALL WARE
WAYNE
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WW 0008 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 8
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 E AAF TO
40 SSE TLH TO 35 S VLD TO 20 NNE VLD AND 45 ESE AAF TO 40 SSE TLH
TO 35 S VLD TO 20 NNE VLD.
..DEAN..02/15/26
ATTN...WFO...TAE...
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 8
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
FLC029-067-123-152040-
FL
. FLORIDA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
DIXIE LAFAYETTE TAYLOR
GAC173-185-152040-
GA
. GEORGIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
LANIER LOWNDES
GMZ730-765-152040-
CW
. ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE
APALACHEE BAY OR COASTAL WATERS FROM KEATON BEACH TO OCHLOCKONEE
RIVER FL OUT TO 20 NM
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No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Sun Feb 15 20:13:02 UTC 2026.
SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1024 AM CST Sun Feb 15 2026
Valid 151630Z - 161200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
SOUTHERN GEORGIA INTO NORTH AND WEST-CENTRAL FLORIDA...
...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms remain possible this afternoon and
evening across parts of southern Georgia into north and west-central
Florida. Both damaging winds and a few tornadoes may occur.
...Southeast...
A mature mid-level cyclone evident in water vapor and visible
satellite imagery late this morning over MS/AL will continue to move
quickly eastward across the central Gulf Coast States this
afternoon, eventually reaching the Atlantic Coast later this
evening. Latest surface analysis shows a weak low over northern MS
and greater dewpoints present over the northeast Gulf, as strong
low-level warm advection contributes to moisture transport ahead of
an ongoing line of thunderstorms across the FL Panhandle and
southwest GA.
This pre-frontal band of convection is gradually strengthening late
this morning, even with modest mid-level lapse rates and saturated
profiles through much of the troposphere limiting updraft strength.
Boundary-layer instability will gradually increase downstream across
north FL/southern GA this afternoon as filtered daytime heating and
some increase in low-level moisture occurs (surface dewpoints rising
through the upper 50s to low/mid 60s). Peak MLCAPE may reach values
of 500-1000 J/kg per consensus of 12Z guidance.
With ample low-level and deep-layer shear associated with the
mid-level cyclone present over the developing warm sector, organized
convection mainly in the form of an eastward-moving QLCS is expected
to persist through the afternoon/evening as this activity moves
across north FL/southern GA. The northern extent of the severe risk
into southern/central GA/SC remains uncertain due to weak
instability forecast across these areas, but some guidance suggests
additional strong convection may develop across these areas in
closer proximity to cooler temperatures aloft with the upper trough.
Given the expected strength of the low/mid-level flow and related
shear, scattered damaging winds and a few embedded tornadoes are
possible wherever this line can become/remain surface based. The
Slight Risk has been expanded southward to include more of the
west-central FL Peninsula based on expectations for the broken line
to impact this region amid greater low-level moisture/instability
and sufficient deep-layer shear for organized convection. For more
details on the near-term severe threat across parts of the FL
Panhandle and southwest GA, reference Mesoscale Discussion 85.
..Gleason/Wendt.. 02/15/2026
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SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0151 PM CST Sun Feb 15 2026
Valid 152000Z - 161200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
SOUTHEASTERN GEORGIA INTO NORTH AND WEST-CENTRAL FLORIDA...
...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms remain possible this afternoon and
evening across parts of southern Georgia into north and west-central
Florida. Both damaging winds and a few tornadoes may occur.
...20z Update...
A line of thunderstorms continues eastward into the eastern FL
Panhandle/northern FL Peninsula. Ahead of this line, dew points are
in the mid to upper 50s. MLCAPE remains somewhat weak inland, though
some slow increase is noted ahead of the line amid south-westerly
warm air advection and filtered daytime heating. Regardless of
weaker thermal profiles, strong upper level flow persists with deep
layer shear for organization remaining strong across the eastern FL
Panhandle into the northern FL Peninsula. The threat for strong
convection with potential for damaging wind and a tornado will
continue inland for the next few hours.
A Marginal Risk was maintained across portions of southern/central
Georgia where some redevelopment of thunderstorms is noted over the
last hour. The modestly unstable air mass ahead of this activity may
support potential for isolated damaging gusts through the afternoon.
..Thornton.. 02/15/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1024 AM CST Sun Feb 15 2026/
...Southeast...
A mature mid-level cyclone evident in water vapor and visible
satellite imagery late this morning over MS/AL will continue to move
quickly eastward across the central Gulf Coast States this
afternoon, eventually reaching the Atlantic Coast later this
evening. Latest surface analysis shows a weak low over northern MS
and greater dewpoints present over the northeast Gulf, as strong
low-level warm advection contributes to moisture transport ahead of
an ongoing line of thunderstorms across the FL Panhandle and
southwest GA.
This pre-frontal band of convection is gradually strengthening late
this morning, even with modest mid-level lapse rates and saturated
profiles through much of the troposphere limiting updraft strength.
Boundary-layer instability will gradually increase downstream across
north FL/southern GA this afternoon as filtered daytime heating and
some increase in low-level moisture occurs (surface dewpoints rising
through the upper 50s to low/mid 60s). Peak MLCAPE may reach values
of 500-1000 J/kg per consensus of 12Z guidance.
With ample low-level and deep-layer shear associated with the
mid-level cyclone present over the developing warm sector, organized
convection mainly in the form of an eastward-moving QLCS is expected
to persist through the afternoon/evening as this activity moves
across north FL/southern GA. The northern extent of the severe risk
into southern/central GA/SC remains uncertain due to weak
instability forecast across these areas, but some guidance suggests
additional strong convection may develop across these areas in
closer proximity to cooler temperatures aloft with the upper trough.
Given the expected strength of the low/mid-level flow and related
shear, scattered damaging winds and a few embedded tornadoes are
possible wherever this line can become/remain surface based. The
Slight Risk has been expanded southward to include more of the
west-central FL Peninsula based on expectations for the broken line
to impact this region amid greater low-level moisture/instability
and sufficient deep-layer shear for organized convection. For more
details on the near-term severe threat across parts of the FL
Panhandle and southwest GA, reference Mesoscale Discussion 85.
Read more
SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1113 AM CST Sun Feb 15 2026
Valid 161200Z - 171200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA COAST AND PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL VALLEY....
...SUMMARY...
Strong thunderstorms may impact southern California coastal areas
and perhaps parts of the Central Valley on Monday. These storms will
be accompanied by at least some risk for damaging wind gusts and
perhaps a tornado or two.
...Synopsis...
A strong mid-level trough and associated mid-level jet streak will
impact southern California on Monday with an amplifying ridge across
the central CONUS. The southern stream trough across southern
California will merge with a northern stream trough across the
Northwest during the day Monday. Therefore, a surface low which will
move onshore along the southern/central California coast on Monday
morning/early afternoon will combine with the northern surface low
and result in a very strong surface low centered over the northern
Rockies by the end of the period.
...Southern California...
Low-level moisture advection will lead to weak destabilization off
the southern California coast Monday morning and into the early
afternoon. Most CAM guidance indicates strengthening convection
along the front as it approaches the coast. A strong low-level jet
and some low-level hodograph curvature may support some damaging
winds and potential for a QLCS tornado or two. The primary limiting
factor will be the relatively shallow nature of the instability.
Some areas within the line may not even produce lightning, but given
the convective nature of the line and the strong wind profile, a
marginal risk is warranted.
...Central California...
In the wake of the initial precipitation surge, cooling temperatures
aloft and perhaps some heating in the Central Valley may result in a
brief window during the afternoon which may favor a few stronger
storms. This threat would be confined to a narrow area, but HRRR
forecast soundings between 21-22Z show some weak instability,
moderately steep lapse rates, and around 200 m2/s2 0-1km SRH. The 2%
tornado probabilities have been maintained for this limited duration
threat.
..Bentley.. 02/15/2026
Read more
SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0124 PM CST Sun Feb 15 2026
Valid 171200Z - 181200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Scattered thunderstorm activity is possible across Pacific coastal
areas and the Central Valley of California Tuesday into Tuesday
night, as well as across parts of the mid Missouri Valley into Upper
Midwest Tuesday night. However, the risk for severe storms appears
low.
...Discussion...
Continued cold air advection aloft over the relatively warm waters
of the eastern Pacific will continue to support thunderstorm
activity along the coastal areas on Tuesday from Oregon to southern
California. Thunderstorm activity may spread inland across central
California where some warming may lead to a pocket of greater
instability in the central Valley.
A large cyclone will emerge across the northern Plains on Tuesday.
Moisture will be somewhat limited given the cold front currently
scouring moisture across the Gulf. However, forecast guidance does
show sufficient moistening around 850mb to support some elevated
instability by Tuesday evening into early Wednesday. Given the
strong isentropic ascent, isolated to scattered thunderstorms will
be possible across the Upper Midwest starting Tuesday evening.
However, the limited moisture will keep instability weak.
..Bentley.. 02/15/2026
Read more
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1052 AM CST Sun Feb 15 2026
Valid 151700Z - 161200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR NORTHWESTERN NEBRASKA AND ADJACENT
BORDER OF SOUTH DAKOTA...
...Northern and Central Plains...
Only slight modifications to existing Critical and Elevated
Highlights were needed for portions of the northern and central
Plains. Critical fire weather conditions including sustained
west/southwest winds of 15-25 mph and RH falling to around 15% are
most likely across northwestern NE today. Accelerating westerly flow
aloft and a deepening surface low across the Dakotas will bring dry
and breezy conditions to the area. Farther west, increasing
high-level cloud cover could limit surface RH reductions and across
southeastern WY, but a locally critical fire weather threat still
exists in favorable downslope areas in the lee of the Laramie
Mountains where sustained winds of 20-25 mph are expected.
...Southern High Plains...
A more transient and localized elevated fire weather threat exists
across portions of the Southern Plains today. Dry return flow in
response to a deepening lee trough across the southern/central High
Plains should bring about southwest winds of 10-20 mph and minimum
RH of 15-20% across eastern NM and portions of the TX Panhandle.
Short duration of the dry and breezy conditions along with
marginally dry fuels and increasing upper-level clouds should limit
a broader fire weather impact this afternoon across the southern
High Plains.
..Williams.. 02/15/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1221 AM CST Sun Feb 15 2026/
...Synopsis...
Shortwave ridging will be in place across the southern Rockies
through the day today with a weak jet max near the apex of the
ridge. This will promote a weak surface low in the Dakotas, bringing
dry, breezy conditions to portions of the northern and central High
Plains. A Critical area has been maintained in portions of
northwestern Nebraska and far southwestern South Dakota, where winds
are expected to be 15-25 mph with RH of 10-15% in the presence of
dry fuels. Surrounding this is an Elevated area reaching westward to
mountains. Portions of central Colorado near the Front Range have
seen some rain in the last few days, however, have maintained an
Elevated area here due to low RH and enhanced flow near the
mountains.
In addition, some transient Elevated fire weather conditions are
possible across portions of northeast New Mexico during the
afternoon, with 15-20 mph winds and RH near 15-20% in the presence
of modestly dry fuels. However, due to the marginal, localized
nature, have not introduced an Elevated area here.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0147 PM CST Sun Feb 15 2026
Valid 161200Z - 171200Z
...Southern and Central Plains...
Increasing westerly flow aloft on the nose of an approaching
mid-level jet along with surface troughing in the lee of the
southern Rockies will support breezy and dry conditions across
portions of the central and southern High Plains Monday. Sufficient
mixing of a dry boundary layer despite some high clouds should
encourage stronger south/southwest winds of 15-20 mph to develop
across the region in addition to low relative humidity around 15%
(locally 10%). A locally critical fire weather threat exists across
far northeast NM, western TX Panhandle and favored terrain gaps in
the lee of the southern Rockies where winds of 20-25 mph are
possible. Elevated highlights were maintained across portions of
northeastern NM, TX Panhandle and far southwest KS where fuels are
more receptive. A northward expansion of elevated fire weather
highlights was made into the Palmer Divide area and adjacent
foothills of the Rockies in CO given latest model guidance.
..Williams.. 02/15/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1222 AM CST Sun Feb 15 2026/
...Synopsis...
A shortwave ridge over the central CONUS will move eastward through
the day on Monday as a trough digs into the western CONUS and the
associated jet max overspreads the central and southern Rockies. In
response, lee troughing will develop over southeastern Colorado,
which is expected to promote dry and breezy conditions amid strong
vertical mixing across portions of the southern High Plains. Here,
winds may be near 20-25 mph and RH near 10-15% in the presence of
dry fuels. Therefore, an Elevated area has been introduced across
portions of northeastern New Mexico, the Texas and Oklahoma
Panhandles, and adjacent areas of far southeastern Colorado and
southwestern Kansas.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
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