RSS Mesoscale Discussions from Storm Prediction Center
No watches are valid as of Sun Apr 19 01:08:01 UTC 2026.
No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Sun Apr 19 01:08:01 UTC 2026.
SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0722 PM CDT Sat Apr 18 2026
Valid 190100Z - 191200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Severe storms are unlikely through tonight.
...Synopsis...
Little thunderstorm activity is currently present near the cold
front moving across NY and PA, with only isolated lightning flashes
across WV into western VA. Given the loss of heating, and already
minimal instability present, severe storms appear unlikely to
develop.
Farther south, scattered storms exist over northern AL near the
front, and north of the boundary from LA into central TX. In both
these areas, instability is weak, and generally should not support a
severe threat as the surface air mass cools.
..Jewell.. 04/19/2026
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SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0456 PM CDT Sat Apr 18 2026
Valid 201200Z - 261200Z
...Synopsis...
A pronounced upper-level trough across the northeastern U.S. on Day
3/Monday will move offshore into the Atlantic by Day 4/Tuesday,
while ridging builds over central CONUS. Offshore flow trajectories
under the deeper northwest flow from the departing upper trough will
support a continued fire weather threat across portions of the Mid
Atlantic, Southeast and FL on Day 3/Monday. Farther west, an
upper-level trough will impinge upon the West Coast on Day
4/Tuesday. Fire weather concerns are expected to reemerge across
portions of the Southwest and central/southern Plains as the
upper-level trough and associated stronger mid-level flow progress
eastward midweek, with surface lee troughing evolving across the
northern and central Plains on Day 5-6/Wednesday-Thursday.
...Day 3-4/Monday-Tuesday...
...Central and Southern Plains...
Modest westerly flow aloft along with a surface trough across the
northern Plains will promote downslope enhanced drying and breezy
west winds across eastern WY into the NE Panhandle and southwestern
SD on Day 3/Monday. Farther south, increasing southerly winds south
of the surface trough amid dry boundary layer conditions should
result in a fire weather concern from the northern TX Panhandle
northeastward into much of southwestern KS. 40% critical
probabilities for both regions remain largely intact.
...Mid-Atlantic, Southeast and Florida...
A fire weather threat will continue for portions of the Mid Atlantic
and Southeast on Day 3/Monday as dry, post-frontal flow and robust
northwesterly flow aloft impacts the region. Dry conditions and a
steady northeast wind across FL is expected on Day 4/Tuesday as
surface high pressure settles into the Deep South.
...Southwest...
A mid-level perturbation and increasing mid/upper moisture from the
Pacific should bring some high-based afternoon convection to
portions of eastern AZ into central NM on Day 3/Monday. Dry and warm
conditions will further dry fuels with some ignitions possible from
isolated dry thunderstorm activity. Dry and breezy conditions return
mid week as the next robust upper trough moves into the
Intermountain West, with potential impact on holdover ignitions. A
10% dry thunderstorm probability was introduced to highlight this
threat.
...Day 5-6/Wednesday-Thursday...
A deepening surface low across the northern High Plains ahead of the
approaching upper-level trough and associated increased southwest
flow aloft will bring a more expansive fire weather threat to much
of the High Plains and portions of the Southwest for the middle of
next week where fuels remain receptive. Introduced a 70% critical
probability for southeastern CO, northeastern NM, southwestern KS
and portions of the OK/TX Panhandles for Day 5/Wednesday, where a
mid-level jet aligns with tightening surface pressure gradients
associated with the deepening lee trough. Downslope enhanced drying
and stronger west/southwest winds continue across much of the
Southwest and Southern Plains on Day 6/Thursday as the mid-level
trough ejects into the Plains. Broad 40% critical probabilities were
maintained for the Southwest and Southern Plains.
..Williams.. 04/18/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
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