RSS Mesoscale Discussions from Storm Prediction Center
No watches are valid as of Fri Feb 13 00:39:02 UTC 2026.
No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Fri Feb 13 00:39:02 UTC 2026.
SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
Issued by 15th OWS Scott Air Force Base IL
0145 PM CST Thu Feb 12 2026
Valid 122000Z - 131200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected.
...Great Basin...
Water-vapor imagery this afternoon shows an upper low over the
southern Sierra Nevada along with a trough axis extending from
northern NV into central coastal CA. Only a small southeastward
shift of the positively tilted upper trough axis (and associated
cold pocket) is expected through tonight. Pockets of scant
destabilization are forecast mainly this afternoon into the early
evening. Storm intensity will remain weak with only isolated to
widely scattered thunderstorm coverage forecast.
.... 02/12/2026
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SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0401 PM CST Thu Feb 12 2026
Valid 141200Z - 201200Z
Very active upper and mid-level flow will persist across CONUS
through the extended forecast period. An upper trough and associated
surface low will move from the southern High Plains early Day
3/Saturday eastward across the Deep South/Southeast states through
Day 4/Sunday. Another upper-level trough enters the West on Day
5/Monday, progressing east over the Central and Southern High
Plains. Elevated to locally critical fire weather conditions are
expected this weekend and early next week, given persistent strong
mid-level flow and increasing western US troughing.
...Texas Big Bend and Rio Grande Valley: Day 3/Saturday...
Dry and breezy conditions are expected to develop Day 3/Saturday
afternoon/evening as the mid/upper-level trough impinges on the area
and an associated surface low strengthens over the Southern Plains.
Precipitation on Day 3/Saturday will likely be localized and fairly
minimal in the early afternoon hours before a dryline shifts
southeastward. As such, the aforementioned area could see RH values
between 15-25 percent and west-northwesterly surface winds of 15-25
mph for a few hours in the late afternoon. A 40% probability of
Critical fire weather conditions are maintained where the dry and
breezy conditions will likely overlap dry fuels.
...Central and Southern High Plains, Texas Rio Grande Valley: Day
4/Sunday...
Fire weather conditions are expected to increase across portions of
the Central High Plains as a mid-level trough approaches from the
west and a surface lee cyclone strengthens. A region of strong
mid-level flow combined with surface low pressure east of the
Rockies will support strong surface winds, especially if deep mixing
occurs. A 40% probability of Critical fire weather conditions has
been introduced for parts of CO, WY and NE where dry westerly
downslope winds will overlap dry fuels.
There is some uncertainty in the overall extent and amount of
precipitation on Day 2/Friday and Day 3/Saturday, precluding the
introduction of probabilities for the Southern High Plains. However,
low RH and strong southwesterly winds are expected and may lead to
future highlights as confidence increases in rainfall placement and
amounts. Additionally, lingering dry and strong northwesterly
surface winds in the Texas Rio Grande Valley may generate locally
enhanced fire weather conditions on Day 4/Sunday.
...Southern High Plains: Day 5/Monday...
Dry and breezy conditions will continue on Day 5/Monday as a blended
setup of downslope winds and dry return flow develop behind lee
troughing. Increasing surface southwesterly flow and low relative
humidity could support increasing fire weather potential, though as
mentioned in D4/Sunday, the extent and amount of precipitation over
the weekend precludes the introduction of probabilities.
...Central and Southern High Plains: Day 6/Tuesday...
A secondary mid-level trough will move from western CONUS across the
Rockies into the Central and Southern High Plains region. Robust
mid-level flow atop a deepening surface low will bring very strong
winds across the Central and Southern High Plains. Downslope winds
and critically low RH values could overlap dry fuels that may not
receive rainfall earlier in the forecast period, lending to the
introduction of a 40% probability for Critical fire weather
conditions in the Southern Plains. Given the uncertainty in wetting
rainfall potential and the extent of daytime cloud cover, changes to
probabilities are possible in future outlooks.
...D7/Wednesday - D8/Thursday...
Varying model trends and significant timing differences lend to
lower predictability in the latter part of the forecast period.
However, the pattern hints at a continuation of potential critical
fire weather conditions later in the week. Nonetheless, this is
conditional upon fuel moisture given the possibility of rainfall
earlier in the forecast period.
..Elizalde-Garcia/Lyons.. 02/12/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
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