RSS Mesoscale Discussions from Storm Prediction Center
No watches are valid as of Fri Nov 28 00:50:02 UTC 2025.
No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Fri Nov 28 00:50:02 UTC 2025.
SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0645 PM CST Thu Nov 27 2025
Valid 280100Z - 281200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
The risk for thunderstorms appears negligible across much of the
nation tonight.
...01Z Update...
Drying and stabilizing trends are now well underway across
southeastern Florida coastal areas and the Keys, where
lower/mid-tropospheric wind fields have veered to northwesterly.
Some lightning was noted earlier in a convective band within
west-southwesterly low-level flow emanating from Lake Ontario, where
trajectories across the relatively warm lake waters are maximized.
Additional convection occasionally becoming capable of producing
lightning appears possible to the east of Lake Ontario through at
least 05-06Z, before this potential becomes more negligible as mean
lower/mid-tropospheric winds begin to veer to a more
westerly/northwesterly component.
..Kerr.. 11/28/2025
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SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0333 PM CST Thu Nov 27 2025
Valid 291200Z - 051200Z
An upper-level trough will move out of the Rockies and into the
Midwest/Great Lakes while strengthening this weekend. Another
upper-level trough will likely track southeast over the
Intermountain West Day 4/Sunday into Day 5/Monday, with
deeper/broader troughing likely to develop over the central/eastern
US Day 5/Monday - Day 7/Wednesday. A deep upper-level trough may
track south-southeast over the West Coast/Intermountain West late in
the period.
Dry return flow is likely across portions of South Carolina, Georgia
and Alabama into Tennessee Day 3/Saturday, but the winds do not
appear strong enough and overlap low enough RH and receptive fuels
to warrant probabilities. Another round of widespread rainfall is
likely for the Southeast starting late Day 3/Saturday and continuing
into mid-week. However, portions of southern Georgia into Florida
may receive little appreciable rainfall with fuels likely remaining
receptive, especially when coupled with elevated/critical winds/RH.
Dry/breezy conditions are likely across portions of southeast New
Mexico Day 3/Saturday ahead of an approaching cold front. Given the
recent cool weather and rainfall and likely locally elevated
winds/RH, no probabilities were included. Another round of
dry/breezy conditions are possible for portions of the southern High
Plains early to mid-next week.
Offshore/downslope winds are likely to develop late Day 4/Sunday
into Day 6/Tuesday across portions of California, especially
southern California. However, fuels are not very receptive given the
recent precipitation across the state.
..Nauslar.. 11/27/2025
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
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