RSS Mesoscale Discussions from Storm Prediction Center
No watches are valid as of Tue Dec 30 17:28:02 UTC 2025.
No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Tue Dec 30 17:28:02 UTC 2025.
SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1000 AM CST Tue Dec 30 2025
Valid 301630Z - 311200Z
...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are not forecast through tonight.
...Synopsis and Discussion...
With cool/stable conditions prevalent behind a cold front across a
large portion of the CONUS, thunderstorms are not forecast today.
..Gleason/Wendt.. 12/30/2025
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SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1123 AM CST Tue Dec 30 2025
Valid 311200Z - 011200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated thunderstorms are possible during the early morning of New
Year's Day along coastal southern California.
...Coastal southern CA...
An initially slow-moving upper low is forecast to eject
northeastward as a shortwave trough and approach coastal southern CA
by the end of the period. The primary midlevel cold core is forecast
to still be offshore at the end of the period (12Z Thursday).
However, some moistening beneath modest cooling aloft could support
isolated thunderstorm potential late in the period across the
Channel Islands and eventually coastal areas of southern CA. Some
enlargement of low-level hodographs is expected as this system
approaches, but with scant buoyancy and only modest effective shear,
organized severe potential appears low.
..Dean.. 12/30/2025
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SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1036 AM CST Tue Dec 30 2025
Valid 301700Z - 311200Z
...Western Oklahoma and Northwest Texas...
Lee surface trough development across the central High Plains will
initiate a swath of modest southwest flow of up to 15 mph across
eastern TX to the lower MO River Valley. Temperatures will quickly
rise into the 50s to near 60 across western OK/northwestern TX under
clear skies. Although winds be marginal in terms of speed, current
surface dewpoints in the low teens to below 10F in some areas in
western OK (supporting 15-25% afternoon RH), longer term rainfall
deficits amid expanding drought, along with dry fuels and above
normal fuel loading across this region will enhance fire danger this
afternoon. Only minor changes to the current Elevated highlights
were needed.
...Southeast and Florida...
An elevated fire weather threat remains across the Southeast and FL
amid a dry, post frontal regime. Northwest winds of 10-15 mph
aligned with minimum relative humidity in the 25-35% range should
allow for several hours of elevated fire weather conditions
primarily across GA and FL through the afternoon. Warmer
temperatures in the 60s across southern FL could support relative
humidity closer to 20% this afternoon with dry, parallel peninsular
flow in place. Thus, elevated highlights were maintained across the
Southeast and FL today.
..Williams.. 12/30/2025
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1247 AM CST Tue Dec 30 2025/
...Synopsis...
A broad mid-level trough will prevail along the East Coast, with
broad northwesterly flow aloft expected to overspread much of the
central U.S. today. Embedded mid-level impulses pivoting around the
upper trough will encourage multiple southeastward surges of surface
high pressure east of the Mississippi River, with lee troughing
expected across the High Plains. Modest downslope flow along the
central and southern High Plains will promote low-end Elevated
conditions across western Oklahoma into northwestern Texas, where
localized wildfire spread will be possible given dry fuels. Offshore
flow due to the aforementioned surface high pressure surges will
continue to support dry, occasionally breezy conditions across
portions of the Southeast into the FL Peninsula, where low-end
Elevated highlights remain in place.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
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