RSS Mesoscale Discussions from Storm Prediction Center
No watches are valid as of Fri May 29 17:44:02 UTC 2026.
No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Fri May 29 17:44:02 UTC 2026.
SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1110 AM CDT Fri May 29 2026
Valid 291630Z - 301200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING OVER WEST TEXAS INTO WESTERN OKLAHOMA...
...SUMMARY...
Scattered strong to severe storms capable of sporadic large hail and
scattered severe winds are expected this afternoon and evening
across portions of western Texas/Oklahoma. More isolated severe
thunderstorms are likely across parts of the central High Plains,
southern Utah, and the northern Rockies.
...Southern Plains...
Southwesterly flow aloft is present today over AZ/NM, with large
scale height falls and weak ascent overspreading west TX/OK.
Low-level southeasterly flow in this region is maintaining a moist
and potentially moderately unstable air mass, with breaks in the
clouds leading to pockets of CAPE over 2000 J/kg. By late
afternoon, clusters of thunderstorms will develop from the Davis
mountains northward into the TX Panhandle. Forecast soundings in
this area show a deeply mixed boundary-layer suggestive of a
damaging wind and large hail potential. These storms will congeal
and move eastward into western OK during the evening, spreading into
greater low-level moisture and CAPE profiles. The risk of hail may
increase as this happens.
...Northeast CO/Northwest KS...
Scattered afternoon thunderstorms are expected to develop along the
Palmer Ridge to the east of Denver, and over the plains of southeast
CO. These storms will track northeastward through the early
evening, with some increase in low-level shear expected. This may
result in a supercell or two capable of large hail, damaging winds,
or perhaps a tornado.
...MT...
A consensus of 12z model guidance continues to show that scattered
afternoon thunderstorms will form over the terrain of western and
central MT. This activity will spread northward toward the Canadian
border, through a region of 1000 J/kg CAPE and a deeply mixed
boundary-layer. This would support a risk of isolated damaging wind
gusts and perhaps hail in the strongest storms.
..Hart/Wendt.. 05/29/2026
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SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1224 PM CDT Fri May 29 2026
Valid 301200Z - 311200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR WESTERN
NEBRASKA INTO SOUTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA...
...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms with large hail and severe wind gusts are expected on
Saturday from parts of western and central Nebraska into southern
and western South Dakota. Isolated severe gusts and hail will also
be possible in the northern High Plains, and from parts of the
central Plains into the southern High Plains.
...Synopsis...
A mid-level shortwave trough will rotate from the Rockies into the
central Plains on Saturday as a lee surface cyclone develops across
western Kansas. A dryline will mix eastward across southwest Kansas
into the Texas Panhandle.
...Western Nebraska into southwest South Dakota...
A dryline will bend northwestward from central Kansas into the
Nebraska Panhandle on Saturday afternoon. As the mid-level trough
overspreads the region, inhibition will erode and storms are
expected to develop by mid-afternoon. Most guidance shows some
mixing of the shallow moisture across the region during the
afternoon. This casts some uncertainty on storm coverage across far
southern Nebraska and into northern Kansas. However, farther
northwest, where mid-level forcing will be stronger, storms are
anticipated across the Nebraska Panhandle into southwest South
Dakota. Large hail and damaging wind gusts will be the primary
threat from this activity. It is worth noting, that some guidance
which is a bit more progressive with northwestward moisture
transport would be more supportive for a tornado threat across the
region. However, this appears to be a more outlier solution rather
than a likely solution. Therefore, the 2% tornado probabilities seem
appropriate.
...Kansas to West Texas...
Isolated storm development is possible along the dryline from West
Texas to central Kansas Saturday afternoon. Upper level forcing will
be focused farther north and convergence will be weak along the
dryline from the Kansas/Oklahoma border southward. In addition,
shallow moisture is forecast to mix out ahead of the dryline.
However, despite these mitigating factors, strong surface heating is
expected which would result in a mostly uncapped airmass along the
length of the dryline. 30 to 40 knots of mid-level flow is expected
to remain across the region which could result in a supercell or
two.
A more concentrated zone of storms may exist from southern Kansas
into central Kansas, closer to the upper-level forcing, where
convergence along the dryline is also greater. However, within this
zone, shear may be marginal (20 to 25 knots) within a relatively
weak area of mid-level flow. Therefore, higher probabilities have
not been added.
...Western Missouri...
Within a zone of weak isentropic ascent Saturday night and early
Sunday morning, strong to isolated severe storms may develop from
far eastern Kansas into western Missouri. A few storms may be
capable of large hail.
..Bentley.. 05/29/2026
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SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1133 AM CDT Fri May 29 2026
Valid 291700Z - 301200Z
...Morning Update...
No changes were made to the ongoing forecast. As the upper trough
lifts over the Four Corners and Colorado Plateau this afternoon, dry
southerly flow will continue to dominate meanwhile large scale
ascent and increasing mid-level moisture will allow a threat of
thunderstorms to form. Current surface observations depict
widespread RH of less than 30% across the region, owing to poor
overnight recoveries. At peak heating, sustained southerly winds of
15-25 mph (locally higher) with gusts up to 40 mph and RH values of
15-20% will overspread dry fuels, maintaining Elevated fire weather
concerns. Localized critical conditions may emerge in
terrain-favored areas where sustained winds exceed 25 mph and RH
nears 10%. See the previous discussion for more information.
..Elizalde-Garcia.. 05/29/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0150 AM CDT Fri May 29 2026/
...Synopsis...
The closed mid-level low across the western CONUS will open up and
lift northeast from southern Nevada/California into the central
Rockies. As this occurs, a mid-level jet streak located in the basal
region of the trough will traverse the Southwest, Four Corners, into
central Colorado.
... Colorado Plateau and Southwest ...
Strong diurnal heating of a dry atmosphere will support afternoon
relative humidity to fall into the teens across the region. At the
same time, the mid-level jet streak will be overhead. As the
boundary layer deepens beneath this jet streak, strong vertical
mixing will result in strong, gusty winds reaching the surface,
perhaps locally as high as 25-30 mph. Receptive fuels across the
area will combine with meteorological conditions to support a few
hours of elevated to locally critical fire weather conditions during
the afternoon.
Additionally, deep boundary layer circulations, coupled with
large-scale ascent and increasing mid-level moisture associated with
the passing trough, will support some thunderstorm potential across
portions of northern Arizona, central and eastern Utah, and western
Colorado. Given receptive fuels and a dry atmosphere (as measured by
precipitable water values generally at or below 0.5 inches) will
support at least some potential for dry thunderstorms, especially
given average forecast storm speeds around 30 knots.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
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