RSS Mesoscale Discussions from Storm Prediction Center
No watches are valid as of Tue Mar 24 12:30:02 UTC 2026.
No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Tue Mar 24 12:30:02 UTC 2026.
SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0700 AM CDT Tue Mar 24 2026
Valid 241300Z - 251200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated thunderstorms will be possible today across parts of
north/central Florida and late tonight over portions of coastal
Washington, but organized severe thunderstorms are not expected.
...Synopsis and Discussion...
Surface high pressure will remain entrenched over the eastern CONUS
today, with low-level moisture sufficient to support thunderstorms
confined to parts of the FL Peninsula along/south of a front.
Large-scale ascent will remain weak across this region through the
afternoon, with multiple small-scale perturbations embedded within
mean upper troughing across the eastern states remaining displaced
to the north of FL. Even so, isolated thunderstorms may develop this
afternoon across parts of north/central FL, with some preference for
initiation along the Atlantic Coast sea breeze. Weak low/mid-level
flow and related modest deep-layer shear are expected to limit the
threat for organized severe convection. Isolated thunderstorms may
also occur late tonight into early Wednesday morning across parts of
coastal WA as strong forcing and cool temperatures aloft associated
with a mid/upper-level jet overspread this region.
..Gleason/Kerr.. 03/24/2026
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Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0342 AM CDT Tue Mar 24 2026
Valid 271200Z - 011200Z
...DISCUSSION...
Widespread severe thunderstorm potential appears limited through the
remainder of March amid persistent upper-level ridging across the
central and western CONUS. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms may
materialize across portions of the TN Valley and Mid-Atlantic on
D4/Friday as a strong cold front pushes east/southeast towards the
East Coast and northern Gulf. However, limited mid-level lapse rates
across the southeastern U.S. will likely modulate the potential for
severe thunderstorms. Surface high pressure building across the
eastern Plains and OH Valley in the wake of the cold front -
combined with the re-amplification of the upper ridge over the
western U.S. - will further limit severe thunderstorm potential for
much of the weekend and very early next week.
A gradual eastward translation of the surface high will likely
promote the initial stages of moisture into the central U.S. around
the D7/Mon or D8/Tues time frame. Most deterministic solutions and
ensemble systems hint at an upper-level regime shift as the upper
ridge shifts east and southwesterly flow becomes more prominent over
the Southwest. This may support some increase in severe weather
potential by the middle of next week, and possibly as early
D8/Tuesday, but predictability at this range appears very limited.
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