RSS Mesoscale Discussions from Storm Prediction Center
No watches are valid as of Tue Jan 13 10:24:02 UTC 2026.
No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Tue Jan 13 10:24:02 UTC 2026.
SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1257 AM CST Tue Jan 13 2026
Valid 141200Z - 151200Z
...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are not forecast across the U.S. on Wednesday and
Wednesday night.
...DISCUSSION...
A large-scale upper-level trough will dig southeastward into the
east-central U.S. on Wednesday, as a cold front moves quickly across
the southeastern U.S. In its wake, a large area of high pressure
will settle in across the central states. This will reinforce dry
and cool conditions over much of the nation. In response,
thunderstorms will be unlikely over the continental U.S. Wednesday
and Wednesday night.
..Broyles.. 01/13/2026
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SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0226 AM CST Tue Jan 13 2026
Valid 151200Z - 161200Z
...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are not forecast across the U.S. on Thursday and
Thursday night.
...DISCUSSION...
A large-scale upper-level trough will move eastward to the southern
Atlantic Seaboard on Thursday, as northwest flow remains in place
over much of the nation. At the surface, a large area of high
pressure will remain over the east-central U.S. As a result, dry and
cool conditions will be unfavorable for thunderstorms over the
continental U.S. Thursday and Thursday night.
..Broyles.. 01/13/2026
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Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0335 AM CST Tue Jan 13 2026
Valid 161200Z - 211200Z
...DISCUSSION...
A persistent eastern U.S large-scale upper-level trough is forecast
to remain in place through the Day 4 to 8 period. As a result,
northwesterly mid-level flow is forecast over much of the
continental U.S. In response, multiple cold air intrusions are
expected to take place across the central and eastern U.S. This will
keep a relatively dry and cold airmass over much of the nation
through early next week. For this reason, conditions will be
unfavorable for thunderstorms in most areas, and a severe threat is
not forecast in the Day 4 to 8 period.
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SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0217 AM CST Tue Jan 13 2026
Valid 131200Z - 141200Z
...Synopsis...
Troughing over the eastern US will intensify today with strong
north-northwesterly flow overspreading much of the Plains. A
prominent shortwave will move southward along with a strong surface
cold front. The increase in strong flow aloft and the front will
bolster surface winds over the High Plains, supporting Elevated
fire-weather conditions.
...Central High Plains...
As the upper trough deepens and moves east, a potentate shortwave
feature on the western flank will move southeastward over the
Rockies and High Plains. Strong northwesterly flow aloft will
overspread the region. The upper-level support along with ongoing
lee troughing and building high pressure to the west will promote
very breezy northwest winds of 15-25 mph and higher gusts. However,
RH values will likely be only modest given orographic cloud cover
and the cooler surface temperatures behind the front. Still, RH
below 30% overlapped with very dry/dormant fuels and several hours
of favorable dry/breezy conditions will likely support elevated fire
weather threat for northeastern CO, far southeastern WY and
southwestern NE Panhandle. Fire concerns should end quickly tonight
as the cold front and cooler air mass arrive with strong northerly
flow.
...TX/OK...
Modest southwest winds associated with a weak surface trough
extending from the Great Lakes region to the southern Plains will be
a primary mitigating factor in a broader fire weather threat today.
Still, unusually warm temperatures and afternoon RH near 20% across
northwestern Texas and southwestern could support localized
fire-weather concerns where winds of up to 15 mph amid drier fuels
are expected.
A weak upper low with light precipitation over south TX and the Rio
Grande Valley could temporarily limit fuel availability today.
However, only light precipitation is expected and the state of
short-hour fuels is such that rapid drying is possible.
...Southeast...
Dry conditions will likely persist over the Southeast as surface
high pressure settles over the Southeast. While strong winds appear
unlikely, residual dry air mass will persist across the Southeastern
U.S. where RH will fall to as low as 25% With drier fuels in place,
this could support some brief localized fire-weather concerns
despite limited winds, especially across parts of coastal GA and the
Carolinas where little rainfall has occurred recently.
..Lyons.. 01/13/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
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SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0218 AM CST Tue Jan 13 2026
Valid 141200Z - 151200Z
...Synopsis...
Persistent and strong upper-level troughing is expected over the
eastern US Day2/Wednesday. As the trough intensifies, a surface low
and cold front will rapidly move eastward. Behind the front, strong
north/northwesterly winds are likely over parts of the Plains and
eventually the Southeast. This, and dry conditions may support some
elevated fire-weather potential.
...Southern Plains to the Rio Grande Valley...
A dry cold front will sweep into the Southern Plains and south TX
Wednesday as the strong upper trough continues to deepen over the
eastern U.S. Accompanying the front, gusty north winds of 20-30 mph
are expected across parts of OK and TX. This will enhance wildfire
risk over parts of the southern Plains ahead of the cooler air mass.
Still, the cooler temperatures and cloud will likely keep RH
reductions more modest with minimums around 30%. This will likely
limit a broader sustained fire-weather threat, but dry fine fuels
remain capable of supporting some fire spread given the windy
conditions.
Farther south, some precipitation may temporarily limit fuels as a
weak upper low with preceding rain weakens over central TX. Still,
rapid drying is expected given the increase in winds and could
support dry and breezy conditions all the way to the Rio Grande
Valley. Given the state of fuels and what is expected to be light
and sporadic precipitation, elevated fire-weather conditions are
possible, but certainty remains too low to introduce highlights
farther south at this time.
...Southeast...
Dry conditions are again expected over parts of the Southeast. While
winds should remain light ahead of the advancing cold front,
afternoon RH values below 35% and dry fuels could support localized
fire-weather concerns. Winds will increase after dark, though rapid
humidity recovery is expected with the frontal passage overnight.
..Lyons.. 01/13/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
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