RSS Mesoscale Discussions from Storm Prediction Center
WW 465 SEVERE TSTM DC DE MD NJ PA VA WV CW 052245Z - 060500Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 465
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
645 PM EDT Sun Jul 5 2026
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of
District Of Columbia
Delaware
Maryland
Southern New Jersey
South-Central and Southeast Pennsylvania
Northern Virginia
The Far Eastern West Virginia Panhandle
Coastal Waters
* Effective this Sunday night and Monday morning from 645 PM
until 100 AM EDT.
* Primary threats include...
Scattered damaging wind gusts to 65 mph possible
SUMMARY...Loosely organized clusters and cells should pose some
threat for scattered damaging winds this evening as they spread
generally eastward. Occasional strong to severe gusts may reach up
to 55-65 mph.
The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 90
statute miles east and west of a line from 35 miles northeast of
Harrisburg PA to 30 miles south of Washington DC. For a complete
depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update
(WOUS64 KWNS WOU5).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.
&&
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 463...WW 464...
AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
1 inch. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 55 knots. A few
cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector
27020.
...Gleason
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WW 464 SEVERE TSTM ND 052030Z - 060400Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 464
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
330 PM CDT Sun Jul 5 2026
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of
Western North Dakota
* Effective this Sunday afternoon and evening from 330 PM until
1100 PM CDT.
* Primary threats include...
Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2
inches in diameter possible
Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible
A tornado or two possible
SUMMARY...Thunderstorms are expected to intensify across western
North Dakota this afternoon, with a few severe storms possible.
Large hail and damaging winds are the main concerns, although an
isolated tornado is also possible.
The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 60
statute miles east and west of a line from 65 miles southwest of
Garrison ND to 55 miles north northwest of Minot ND. For a complete
depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update
(WOUS64 KWNS WOU4).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.
&&
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 463...
AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A
few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector
25030.
...Hart
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WW 0465 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 465
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SSW ACY
TO 15 NW DOV TO 20 N PHL TO 15 NW NEL.
WW 465 WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 060500Z.
..THOMPSON..07/06/26
ATTN...WFO...LWX...PHI...CTP...
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 465
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
NJC001-005-007-011-015-033-060500-
NJ
. NEW JERSEY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ATLANTIC BURLINGTON CAMDEN
CUMBERLAND GLOUCESTER SALEM
PAC045-101-060500-
PA
. PENNSYLVANIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
DELAWARE PHILADELPHIA
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
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WW 0464 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 464
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 ESE MOT
TO 35 WSW MOT TO 60 NNW MOT.
WW 464 WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 060400Z.
..THOMPSON..07/06/26
ATTN...WFO...BIS...
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 464
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
NDC009-049-075-101-060400-
ND
. NORTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BOTTINEAU MCHENRY RENVILLE
WARD
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
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WW 0463 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 463
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SSE ABI
TO 35 WNW SEP TO 45 S SEP.
WW 463 WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 060300Z.
..THOMPSON..07/06/26
ATTN...WFO...OUN...FWD...LUB...SJT...SHV...
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 463
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
TXC049-081-083-093-095-193-235-399-431-451-060300-
TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BROWN COKE COLEMAN
COMANCHE CONCHO HAMILTON
IRION RUNNELS STERLING
TOM GREEN
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
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MD 1520 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 464... FOR WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA
Mesoscale Discussion 1520
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0938 PM CDT Sun Jul 05 2026
Areas affected...Western North Dakota
Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 464...
Valid 060238Z - 060415Z
The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 464
continues.
SUMMARY...The potential for isolated severe hail and wind gusts will
persist through 04 UTC, but the overall threat should steadily
diminish with time.
DISCUSSION...Convection has struggled to maintain intensity over the
past couple of hours across western ND, and continuous convective
overturning has been gradually eroding MLCAPE based on mesoanalysis
estimates. Despite this, a few stronger updrafts continue to briefly
intensify to severe limits based on MRMS MESH estimates.
Additionally, at least isolated severe wind gusts have been observed
with some of the collapsing convection. Richer low-level moisture
along and north of Highway 23 has maintained some degree of
buoyancy, which may continue to allow occasional/isolated strong to
severe thunderstorms over the next couple of hours. However,
continued overturning and nocturnal stabilization should further
diminish buoyancy and steadily reduce the potential for severe
convection. Temporal extension of WW 464 beyond the scheduled 04 UTC
expiration will likely not be needed.
..Moore.. 07/06/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...BIS...
LAT...LON 47440325 48420210 48740160 48810105 48720067 48380032
48110029 46880185 46780251 46860295 47150327 47440325
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN
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SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0800 PM CDT Sun Jul 05 2026
Valid 060100Z - 061200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER WEST-CENTRAL
TEXAS...WESTERN AND NORTH-CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...AND PARTS OF THE
MID-ATLANTIC...
...SUMMARY...
Scattered wind damage remains possible with thunderstorms across the
Mid-Atlantic and west-central Texas through the remainder of the
evening. Large hail and damaging gusts may still occur with
thunderstorms in North Dakota and Montana.
...West-Central Texas...
A forward-propagating MCS has evolved this evening across the TX Big
Country into the Low Rolling Plains with gusts of 62 and 75 mph
reported with the system over the past hour. The inflow air mass
remains hot and relatively moist with latest objective analysis
indicating MLCAPE of 1500-2000 J/kg. The KFDR VWP indicates a belt
of 30-40 kt northerly winds in the 4-6 km AGL layer, which is likely
enhancing vertical shear. This, when coupled with the presence of a
relatively deep and well-mixed PBL, will continue to support severe
wind gusts and sporadic hail occurrences for the next few hours as
the MCS continues south into the Concho Valley.
For additional near-term details, see MCD 1517.
...Mid-Atlantic...
Earlier, more discrete storms have gradually evolved into a
larger-scale complex over southeast PA with that system tracking
east along a subtle boundary that extends into central NJ.
Additional storm clustering is noted farther south, near Baltimore,
with latest model guidance suggesting additional consolidation of
storms over the next hour or two across the Delmarva into the DE
River Valley. The 00Z IAD sampled a moist and moderately unstable
air mass, which featured steep lapse rates in the lowest 1-1.5 km
AGL. While vertical shear is relatively weak, the steep lapse rates
will support episodic cold-pool organization with an attendant risk
for damaging winds for the next 1-3 hours.
For additional near-term information, see MCD 1518.
...Montana and North Dakota...
Mesoanalysis places a surface front from western ND into
south-central MT, with steep lapse rates and locally higher
boundary-layer moisture contributing to a corridor of moderate to
strong instability in the vicinity of the boundary over northwest ND
into northeast MT. Widely scattered thunderstorms are ongoing this
evening to the east of the boundary in western ND amidst a warmer
and slightly drier boundary layer as sampled by the 00Z BIS
sounding. The development of a nocturnal low-level jet may support
some moistening late this evening into tonight; however, increasing
convective inhibition may become more prohibitive to surface-based
storm sustenance upon nightfall. Nonetheless, isolated occurrences
of large hail and severe wind gusts remain possible with the ongoing
storms for the next 1-3 hours.
Farther west, a separate thunderstorm regime is ongoing to the north
of the surface front in central MT. The short-term models suggest a
few of those storms could persist through the remainder of the
evening with isolated occurrences of large hail and severe wind
gusts possible.
..Mead.. 07/06/2026
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