RSS Mesoscale Discussions from Storm Prediction Center
No watches are valid as of Fri Jun 19 10:50:02 UTC 2026.
No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Fri Jun 19 10:50:02 UTC 2026.
SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0216 AM CDT Fri Jun 19 2026
Valid 211200Z - 221200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE CENTRAL
HIGH PLAINS TO PARTS OF THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY....
...SUMMARY...
Severe storms are possible along a frontal zone from the
Mid-Mississippi Valley to the central High Plains on Sunday. Large
hail, severe winds, and tornadoes will be possible.
...Synopsis...
A mostly zonal pattern will exist across the CONUS on Sunday with
multiple embedded shortwave troughs. The primary surface low is
forecast to remain near the Texas Panhandle during the day Sunday,
with a stationary front extending northeastward through southern
Kansas, central Missouri, and into Illinois. An additional, perhaps
convectively enhanced, surface low may be present across northern
Missouri and Illinois during the afternoon/evening.
...Central Plains to the Mid-Mississippi Valley...
A MCS will likely be ongoing at the beginning of the period across
portions of Kansas/western Missouri near the nose of the low-level
jet. As this moves east through the day, areas southwest of this
cluster, and perhaps immediately in its wake, are expected to
destabilize substantially. This will represent a zone where storms
are expected to develop along the front amid moderate instability
and shear, most likely from northeast Oklahoma to near St. Louis.
These storms would pose a threat for large hail and damaging wind
gusts.
A lower probability, but higher potential impact scenario could
develop across parts of eastern Missouri into central/southern
Illinois Sunday afternoon if a better defined, surface low develops
along the front and deepens through the day. This is most notably
shown by the NAM, but is also shown to a lesser extent by the ECMWF.
This could result in a localized corridor of greater tornado threat
on Sunday due to increased low-level shear. However, this scenario
will be conditional on both the development of this surface low and
the location of the morning MCS. Therefore, greater probabilities
have not been added, but this potential scenario will continue to be
monitored.
...Central High Plains...
Scattered storms are likely to develop in the post-frontal airmass
across western Kansas, eastern Colorado, and southwest Nebraska on
Sunday afternoon/evening, triggered by a shortwave trough
overspreading the region. Strengthening mid-level flow (near 50
knots based on much of the 00Z guidance) atop moderate instability
will support supercells with a threat for large hail and severe wind
gusts.
..Bentley.. 06/19/2026
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Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0315 AM CDT Fri Jun 19 2026
Valid 221200Z - 271200Z
...DISCUSSION...
Severe weather is possible along a frontal zone from the
Mid-Atlantic to the southern Plains on Monday. The specific areas of
threat will be defined by the locations of individual shortwave
troughs embedded within the broader cyclonic flow. These small-scale
features lack consensus at the Day 4 timeframe which precludes 15%
severe weather probabilities at this time.
By Day 5/Tuesday, some severe weather threat is possible across
portions of the central High Plains. There is decent model agreement
showing moderate northwest flow aloft across eastern Colorado and
vicinity on the eastern periphery of a western CONUS ridge. However,
there is considerable spread in moisture return among the guidance.
Should adequate moisture advect into the region, a northwest flow
severe weather event is possible in the eastern Colorado vicinity.
This will need to be monitored.
Day 6 and beyond, model spread increases which limits
predictability. Most guidance shows moderate northwesterly flow
across portions of the Plains, which would suggest continued severe
weather episodes during the extended period. However, specific days
and locations cannot be highlighted at this time due to
aforementioned predictability challenges.
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SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0202 AM CDT Fri Jun 19 2026
Valid 191200Z - 201200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF FAR NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA INTO EXTREME SOUTHERN OREGON AND NORTHWESTERN NEVADA...
...Synopsis...
Broad upper troughing will overspread the Interior West as upper
ridging becomes established over the Rockies and a northwesterly
mid-level flow regime takes shape over the northern Plains to
Mid-Atlantic today. The broad upper troughing over the Interior West
will promote surface low development over the Great Basin, resulting
in dry southwesterly surface flow enveloping parts of eastern
California toward the Four Corners region. Meanwhile, deep-layer
ascent accompanying the surface low and northward mid-level moisture
transport associated with the upper trough will support thunderstorm
development across the northern Great Basin into the Pacific
Northwest through the day. The combination of dry and windy
conditions, as well as thunderstorms atop dry fuels, will support
efficient wildfire ignition/spread potential across a sizeable
portion of the Interior West today.
...Great Basin to the Four Corners...
By afternoon peak heating and ahead of the surface low, ample mixing
of a deep boundary layer up to at least 600 mb will support
widespread dry and windy conditions for several hours. From eastern
California into the Great Basin and toward the Four Corners region,
15-20 mph sustained southwesterly surface winds amid 10-15 percent
RH will overspread dry fuels, warranting Elevated highlights.
...Northern Great Basin into the Pacific Northwest...
During the afternoon, boundary-layer mixing will support increased
buoyancy amid strong deep-layer ascent, resulting in thunderstorm
development across the northern Sierra. Through the afternoon and
evening hours, these storms will gradually progress toward
southeastern Oregon into the northern Great Basin. Forecast
soundings depict inverted-v profiles approaching 500 mb with 0.75+
inch precipitable water values, suggesting that several storms will
be high-based. Fuels are receptive to wildfire spread across the
northern Great Basin into parts of the Pacific Northwest and
northern Rockies, with ERCs reaching the 80th to 90th percentiles.
As such, lightning induced ignitions are expected to be efficient
enough to warrant isolated dry thunderstorm highlights. Scattered
dry thunderstorm highlights were also included for the northern
Sierra and immediate adjacent areas, where orographic lift along the
higher terrain may support a prolonged period of greater high-based
thunderstorm coverage.
..Squitieri.. 06/19/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
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SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0205 AM CDT Fri Jun 19 2026
Valid 201200Z - 211200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE FOUR CORNERS
REGION...
...Synopsis...
A relatively zonal mid-level flow regime will overspread the CONUS
tomorrow (Saturday), with multiple mid-level impulses poised to
traverse the zonal flow, from the Great Basin to the Mid-Mississippi
Valley. A surface cyclone will develop along the central High Plains
while a secondary surface low organizes over the Four Corners
region. Across the Great Basin into the Four Corners, dry and windy
conditions will develop during the afternoon, promoting
wildfire-spread potential. Dry/breezy conditions will also be
possible over and to the lee of the Cascades as a mid-level impulse
overspreads this region. Finally, deep-layer ascent along the
corridor of stronger mid-level zonal flow, with an accompanying
mid-level impulse, will support thunderstorm development atop dry
fuels over parts of the Pacific Northwest toward the central
Rockies.
...Portions of the Great Basin into the Four Corners Region...
By afternoon, boundary-layer mixing will support 15-20 mph
west-southwesterly surface winds amid 5-15 percent RH on a
widespread basis across much of the Great Basin into the Four
Corners. Elevated highlights have been introduced where these dry
and windy conditions will overlap with dry fuels. Furthermore,
Critical highlights were included for areas adjacent to the Four
Corners, where some guidance depict surface winds approaching 20 mph
amid near single-digit RH for several hours tomorrow afternoon.
...Portions of northern California to the central Rockies...
As a mid-level impulse tracks from the Pacific Northwest to central
Rockies, increased deep-layer ascent amid mid-level
moisture/buoyancy will support isolated high-based thunderstorm
development through the afternoon. While forecast soundings show
inverted-v profiles only extending up to 700-600 mb, stronger flow
aloft may encourage faster storm motions, decreasing precipitation
accumulations over dry fuel beds experiencing lightning strikes.
Since ERCs are expected to exceed the 80th percentile, isolated dry
thunderstorm highlights have been added for parts of far northern
California into the central Rockies, where efficient
lightning-induced ignitions are possible.
...Portions of the Pacific Northwest...
The passage of the earlier mentioned embedded mid-level impulse will
encourage dry/windy conditions atop the Cascades, along with
downslope flow along the lee of the Cascades. By afternoon peak
heating, sustained westerly surface winds may reach 15 mph (locally
higher in terrain-enhanced areas) as RH falls into the 15-20 percent
range. Given drying fuels in this region, Elevated highlights were
included.
..Squitieri.. 06/19/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
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