RSS Mesoscale Discussions from Storm Prediction Center
No watches are valid as of Mon Mar 30 13:56:02 UTC 2026.
No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Mon Mar 30 13:56:02 UTC 2026.
SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0732 AM CDT Mon Mar 30 2026
Valid 301300Z - 311200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE MIDDLE AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...
...SUMMARY...
A few severe thunderstorms with large hail, are expected across
parts of the middle and upper Mississippi River Valley tonight
through early Tuesday morning. Isolated strong to marginally severe
storms could occur further east into parts of Lower Michigan early
Tuesday morning as well as over the Texas South Plains this
afternoon and evening.
...Synopsis...
Early-morning satellite imagery shows a relatively zonal pattern in
places across the majority of the CONUS. The only exception is
across the Gulf Coast, which is along the northern periphery of
modest subtropical ridging. Recent surface analysis shows a broad
area of low pressure across the central High Plains/central Plains
with several embedded lows, including one over southwest SD, another
over south-central NE, and another near the OK/KS/CO border
intersection. Modest troughing extends between these features, while
a stationary front extends from the southwest SD low
east-northeastward across southern MN and central WI. At 11Z, mid
50s dewpoints extended from south-central OK into the Mid-South,
with 60s dewpoints farther so from central TX into the Lower MS
Valley.
Overall upper pattern is expected to remain predominantly zonal
throughout the period as a low-amplitude shortwave trough moves
along the US/Canada border, accompanied by a strengthening jet
streak. Substantial low-level moisture advection is expected
throughout the day from the southern Plains/Lower MS Valley into the
Mid MS and OH Valleys and Lower MI. By early tomorrow morning, mid
50s dewpoints will likely extend from southern WI across Lower MI
and into the upper OH Valley, demarcating a developing warm front.
Primary area of thunderstorm development anticipated today is in the
vicinity of the developing warm front from the mid/upper MS Valley
across the Lower Great Lakes into the Upper OH Valley and Northeast.
Isolated thunderstorms are also possible with the moist and
confluent environments of the FL Peninsula and the Lower MS Valley
as well as along the dryline in the southern High Plains and
seasonably moist airmass over the Southwest.
....Mid/Upper MS Valley into Lower MI and the Upper OH Valley...
Significant low-level moisture advection is expected throughout the
day into Mid MS Valley, although this advection will be offset
somewhat by strong heating and deep boundary-layer mixing. General
expectation is that upper 50s dewpoints will reach the IA/MO/central
IL vicinity by 00Z, with mid 50s farther north into southern WI and
southern Lower MI. Given negligible large-scale forcing and strong
mixing, capping is expected prevail throughout the day and into the
early evening. However, beginning around 22-00Z, increasing
mid-level moisture coupled with continued low-level moisture
advection and convergence near a weak surface low could result in
convective initiation across central IA. The earliest development
could be surface based with a trend towards more elevated storms
with time and northeastward extent as warm-air advection increase
during the evening. Steep lapse rates and moderate shear support the
potential for supercells with any more sustained updrafts. Large to
isolated very large hail is the primary severe risk. Even with the
elevated storm character, the prevailing warm/dry conditions above
the shallow return moisture could support strong downdrafts with
strong surface gusts.
Farther east, a few instances of small hail are possible from
western PA into western NY with the thunderstorms expected during
the evening and overnight.
...Southern High Plains...
Isolated thunderstorm development is possible along a dryline
forecast to extend from a weak low in western KS southwestward into
the TX Trans Pecos. Buoyancy will be weak and vertical shear modest
so storm structures are not expected to be particularly robust or
long lived. However, high cloud bases and steep low-level lapse
rates could still support a few stronger gusts at the surface.
..Mosier/Marsh.. 03/30/2026
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SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook CORR 1
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0610 AM CDT Mon Mar 30 2026
Valid 011200Z - 021200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS...
CORRECTED FOR INCORRECT THUNDER LINE ORIENTATION FROM TEXAS TO
LOUISIANA
...SUMMARY...
Strong to severe thunderstorms are likely across the southern to
central Plains on Wednesday afternoon and evening, and will likely
pose a large hail and severe wind threat.
...Synopsis...
A cold front is forecast to push southward into the OH Valley and
southern to central Plains late Tuesday as a surface low races
across the Great Lakes region. This boundary is forecast stall
across OK north and eastward into the Ozark Plateau and OH
Valley/Mid-Atlantic by early Wednesday. Aloft, an upper-level
shortwave trough will approach the southern/central Plains late
Wednesday into early Thursday, and will support the steady
strengthening of a lee trough/surface low across southeast CO into
southern KS. Northward advancement of the stalled boundary as a warm
front is anticipated through the day as the surface low deepens with
a sharpening dryline becoming established across western OK
southward into TX. Scattered thunderstorm development appears
probable along both the dryline and warm front by late afternoon and
early evening. More isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms are
expected along the stationary boundary across the OH Valley into the
Mid-Atlantic.
....Southern/Central Plains...
Mid to upper 50s dewpoints will be in place across northern TX into
OK and southern KS by early Wednesday with steep lapse rates aloft
as increasingly southwesterly flow advects an EML eastward over the
next 72 hours. Despite initial capping, ascent ahead of the
approaching upper wave, coupled with daytime heating, will likely
erode inhibition and support thunderstorm development by late
afternoon across northwest TX and OK along the dryline. Initially
discrete cells may organize into supercells given forecasted
deep-layer shear values of 30-35 knots; however, the general
consensus among medium-range guidance is that relatively quick
upscale growth will occur by the evening hours as mid/upper-level
flow increasingly orients along the dryline and broad-scale ascent
strengthens with the ejection of the upper wave. As upscale growth
occurs, damaging/severe winds should become the predominant threat.
While most guidance show this general scenario, spread persists
regarding the strength of the mid-level flow and timing of the upper
wave, which both may influence the overall intensity of convection
and the subsequent severe risk.
...Ohio Valley to Mid-Atlantic...
Nebulous broad-scale ascent along the stalled boundary will likely
result in primarily isolated to widely scattered convection
Wednesday afternoon across the OH Valley and Mid-Atlantic. However,
westerly 25-30 knot mid-level flow along the boundary coupled with
25-30 F dewpoint depressions may support the development of a few
convective clusters that could pose an isolated damaging wind risk.
Confidence in this scenario is too limited at this time for risk
probabilities, but a focused corridor of isolated severe risk may
emerge.
..Moore.. 03/30/2026
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