RSS Mesoscale Discussions from Storm Prediction Center
No watches are valid as of Sun Mar 29 21:13:02 UTC 2026.
No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Sun Mar 29 21:13:02 UTC 2026.
SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0251 PM CDT Sun Mar 29 2026
Valid 292000Z - 301200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated non-severe thunderstorms remain possible this afternoon and
evening across parts of Arizona, far southern Louisiana and in south
Florida.
...20z...
No changes were made to the prior outlook, see the previous
discussion.
..Lyons.. 03/29/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1110 AM CDT Sun Mar 29 2026/
...Synopsis...
Zonal flow will prevail across much of the Lower 48 through tonight.
Water-vapor imagery late this morning shows a low-amplitude upper
trough immediately west of the southern California and Baja
California coasts moving east. This upper feature will probably
lead to isolated thunderstorms later today over Arizona from the
Mogollon Rim southward to the U.S.-Mexican border. A few weak
thunderstorms will also be possible near a decaying front over south
Florida through the late afternoon. Elsewhere, quiescent conditions
will influence weather conditions across much of the CONUS.
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SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1217 PM CDT Sun Mar 29 2026
Valid 301200Z - 311200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF
THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO LOWER MICHIGAN...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across portions
of the upper Mississippi River Valley to Lower Michigan late Monday
night into early Tuesday morning.
...Synopsis and Discussion...
A low-amplitude but intense shortwave trough will move across the
northern Rockies during the day Monday, and will move into the
northern Plains through 12Z Tuesday, with height falls arriving late
into the upper MS Valley/Great Lakes.
At the surface, low pressure will develop over the northern plains
during they day, and will move into IA/southwest WI area by Tuesday
morning. East of the low, a quasi-stationary front will extend
across WI and Lower MI, with mid to upper 50s F dewpoints to the
south. Meanwhile, a cold front will move to a southeast MN to
western KS line by 12Z Tuesday.
Though capping will inhibit development at least through 00Z,
increasing theta-e advection along with the 40-50 kt 850 mb jet will
lead to lift along/north of the stationary front, with isolated hail
possible as far north as northern WI/Lower MI. Other isolated
development may occur south of this boundary, depending on the
degree of elevated CIN, from IA into IL. Hail would be the most
likely threat.
Late in the period and into Tuesday morning, lift will be strongest
near the surface low, and scattered storms producing both hail and
locally damaging gusts will be possible given the dry sub-cloud
layer and steep lapse rates aloft.
..Jewell.. 03/29/2026
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SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0214 PM CDT Sun Mar 29 2026
Valid 311200Z - 011200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER LOWER
MICHIGAN...AND FROM EASTERN ILLINOIS ACROSS NORTHERN INDIANA AND
OHIO...
...SUMMARY...
Scattered strong/severe thunderstorms are expected through the day
and into the early evening hours Tuesday across parts of the Great
Lakes/Midwest. Damaging gusts and hail are most likely. Isolated
strong storms may also extend southwestward into parts of the
southern Plains with localized hail/wind.
...Synopsis...
A strong shortwave trough will move from the northern Plains across
the Upper Great Lakes on Tuesday, with 50+ kt 500 mb winds extending
as far south as IL/IN/OH. At the surface, low pressure will move
across WI and Lower MI during the day, with a cold front extending
southwestward from northern IN/IL into OK by 00Z. This front is
forecast to proceed across NY and into PA overnight, trailing into
the OH Valley at that time.
A broad fetch of moisture with 50s F to lower 60s F dewpoints is
likely across the region ahead of the cold front, resulting in
MUCAPE over 1000 J/kg. This will exist beneath moderately strong
westerly winds aloft, aiding forward storm motion and shear. Storms
forming along the front late in the afternoon and into the evening
will be the primary focus for severe potential, though a daytime
risk is also possible if early storms remain strong across WI.
...From WI/IL into western NY/PA...
Some uncertainty exist regarding storm evolution on Tuesday.
Regardless, strong winds aloft along with areas of destabilization
should support corridors of damaging wind potential, along with
sporadic large hail.
On Tuesday morning, ongoing storms are expected over parts of WI,
perhaps along or north of the east-west stationary front. This
activity may be severe with damaging gusts or hail, and could
persist into Lower MI. The amount of early storms may play a role in
which areas experience a severe risk later in the day due to
potential stabilizing outflows.
As the warm sector destabilizes further during the afternoon, storms
are likely along the cold front, and perhaps near any leftover
outflows from early day storms. Deep-layer mean wind speeds near 50
kt will support fast-moving storm complexes capable of damaging
winds. Steep lapse rates aloft will favor hail production as well,
although most of the shear will be in the lower 3 km. That said,
mesoscale factors such as destabilization near any boundaries may
conditionally support a tornado risk for rightward-propagating
cells.
...Southern KS into western OK...
Strong heating will occur over the southern Plans, near and south of
the cold front moving into northern OK. Forecast soundings indicate
inhibition but lift along the front may yield a few cells capable of
hail from the eastern TX Panhandle into perhaps far southern KS.
This severe threat will likely be localized due to slow storm
motions and modest shear.
..Jewell.. 03/29/2026
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SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1141 AM CDT Sun Mar 29 2026
Valid 291700Z - 301200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN
WYOMING...
No significant changes were made to the previous outlook. Modest
westerly flow aloft associated with ridging across the West and lee
surface troughing across the central/northern High Plains will
support dry and breezy conditions and elevated fire weather concerns
across portions of the Intermountain West, into the central and
northern High Plains through today.
...Appalachians...
A very dry air mass remains over much of the eastern CONUS with
current dewpoints as low as 10F across portions of the Appalachians
and surrounding region. South winds of 10-15 mph on the western
periphery of a surface high pressure now off the Mid Atlantic Coast
will combine with low relative humidity as low as 15% to bring
elevated fire weather conditions to much of central Appalachians
today. A general expansion of existing Elevated Highlights was
warranted given current RH trends, with some locations already below
20% amid receptive and dormant fuels.
...Southeastern Wyoming...
Introduced a slight westward extension of Critical Highlights into
central WY where west winds of 20-25 mph and RH falling close to 15%
this afternoon. Afternoon RH closer to 10% is likely across far
eastern WY although with weaker winds.
...Southern Arizona...
Isolated, primarily dry thunderstorms are still expected across
southern AZ this afternoon as an MCV across the Sonoran Desert edges
northward over the next several hours. Forecast guidance still
indicates a fairly dry boundary layer as mid-level moisture
increases from the south and southwest, promoting evaporative
forcing and minimal surface rainfall. Abnormally dry fuels could
support new ignitions in this environment. Therefore, isolated dry
thunderstorm highlights remain across portions of southern AZ.
..Williams.. 03/29/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0150 AM CDT Sun Mar 29 2026/
...Synopsis...
Broad upper ridging will overspread the CONUS today, with an
embedded mid-level impulse poised to traverse the Interior West
through the Day 1 period. Surface troughing will become established
across portions of the High Plains, resulting in dry westerly
surface flow. By afternoon peak heating, RH may drop to or below 15
percent from the eastern Great Basin into the central/southern
Rockies and High Plains regions. 15+ mph sustained southwesterly
surface winds may develop across the Interior West, with westerly
winds expected over Wyoming, and west-northwesterly surface flow
likely over the High Plains, warranting widespread Elevated
highlights given dry fuels. Portions of eastern Wyoming may
experience periods of sustained westerly surface winds exceeding 20
mph amid 10-15 percent RH, with Critical highlights maintained.
Farther to the southwest across southern Arizona, the approach of a
subtle mid-level impulse from Mexico, amid scant buoyancy, may
support isolated thunderstorm development by afternoon. Given the
presence of a deep, dry boundary layer extending to nearly 500 mb,
most of the rain from storms should evaporate before reaching the
surface, with lightning potentially occurring within dry fuel beds.
Isolated dry thunderstorm highlights have been maintained for this
scenario.
Across portions of the central Appalachians, 10-15 mph sustained
southerly winds, amid a plume of low-level dry air (yielding RH
potentially below 25 percent in spots), will support appreciable
wildfire-spread potential given dry fuels. Elevated highlights
remain in place for these conditions as well.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
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SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0216 PM CDT Sun Mar 29 2026
Valid 301200Z - 311200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN
WYOMING...
...Upper Colorado River Plateau...Wyoming and central/northern High
Plains...
A westerly flow regime associated with a deamplifying ridge will
continue into D2/Monday across the Intermountain West while lee
surface troughing evolves across the northern and central Great
Plains. A concentrated corridor of 20-25 mph winds and RH between
15-20% will support critical fire weather conditions across
southeastern WY. Downslope flow of 10-15 mph (locally 20 mph) across
the central and southern High Plains and relative humidity as low as
10% across southeastern CO, southwestern KS and the OK/TX Panhandles
will support elevated fire weather conditions. A slight expansion of
the eastern extent of the existing Elevated Highlights was made
given latest model guidance.
...Eastern Arizona and western New Mexico...
A subtle mid-level wave will move into the Lower Colorado River
Basin D2/Monday. Mid-level moisture, daytime instability and
approach of the mid-level perturbation will promote isolated
thunderstorms across eastern AZ and western NM. A dry, well mixed
boundary layer will limit precipitation and increase ignition
potential. The isolated dry thunderstorm threat was expanded
southward based on latest forecast guidance.
..Williams.. 03/29/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0208 AM CDT Sun Mar 29 2026/
...Synopsis...
An upper ridge will persist across the CONUS tomorrow (Monday). An
embedded impulse will traverse the northern Rockies, supporting the
development and eastward progression of a surface low over the
northern Plains. The combination of gradient and dry downslope flow
across the central Rockies into the High Plains will yield Elevated
conditions by Monday afternoon. At least 15 mph sustained westerly
surface winds will coincide with 15-20 percent RH for several hours.
Wind will be regionally stronger across much of Wyoming (i.e. 25 mph
in several locales), suggesting the need for Critical highlights.
Isolated dry thunderstorms will also be possible across portions of
central Arizona into far western New Mexico, where the approach of a
mid-level impulse will support high-based thunderstorm development
atop a mixed boundary layer and dry fuels.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
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SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0351 PM CDT Sun Mar 29 2026
Valid 311200Z - 061200Z
...Synopsis...
A mid-level trough will progress from the western U.S. into the
Great Plains by D5/Thursday, with a more amplified trough entering
the central CONUS by the weekend. Dry and breezy conditions
developing ahead of a surface cold front under increasingly
southwest flow aloft should maintain a fire weather threat across
the southern High Plains D3/Tuesday. The active trough pattern will
bring cooler temperatures and much needed rain and higher elevation
snow to much of the western U.S. Days 3-5/Tuesday-Thursday with
precipitation expanding eastward east of the Continental Divide
through the remainder of the week. This should reduce fire weather
concerns overall, with exceptions across the central and southern
High Plains where precipitation will be limited where pockets of
dry/receptive fuels are likely to remain.
...Day 3-6/Tuesday-Thursday - Southern High Plains and far West
Texas...
Increasing southwesterly flow aloft and surface lee troughing across
the southern High Plains will support downslope enhanced winds and
low relative humidity across eastern NM and portions of western
TX/TX Panhandle on Tuesday. Slight modifications were made to the
existing 40% critical probability area, with some uncertainty still
present in timing of a surface cold front across southern KS into
the TX Panhandle. The fire weather threat shifts southward into
southeastern NM and western TX Wednesday as a mid-level trough and
associated jet eject into the Southern Plains. Deeper boundary layer
moisture and associated rainfall should remain to the east of the
southern High Plains, allowing dry and receptive fuels to persist.
Strong westerly mid-level winds and lee surface troughing will
continue to support dry, downslope favored flow across the southern
High Plains for both D5/Thursday and D6/Friday. Initial 40% critical
probabilities have been introduced for much of eastern NM and
western TX for Thursday and Friday, with possible inclusion of 70%
critical probabilities in future outlooks amid the strong mid-level
flow.
..Williams.. 03/29/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
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