RSS Mesoscale Discussions from Storm Prediction Center
No watches are valid as of Wed Mar 25 18:54:01 UTC 2026.
No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Wed Mar 25 18:54:01 UTC 2026.
SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1050 AM CDT Wed Mar 25 2026
Valid 251630Z - 261200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Organized severe thunderstorms appear unlikely through tonight.
...Synopsis...
Relatively dry and stable conditions will be present over most of
the CONUS today, but with several small areas of some concern for
thunderstorms. These include the Pacific Northwest, Northern
Plains, Mid/Upper MS Valley, and FL.
...Florida...
A weak surface front lies across the central FL peninsula, with
strong heating and dewpoints in the 60s leading to moderate
afternoon CAPE. Similar to yesterday, scattered thunderstorms are
expected along the east-coast sea-breeze and along/south of the
front. Winds aloft are weak, but cool temperatures aloft could be
sufficient for a strong storm or two capable of hail or gusty wind.
The overall threat appears too low to warrant severe probabilities
at this time.
...IL/IN...
Visible satellite imagery shows a zone of weak low-level warm
advection over IA, spreading eastward into IL. Several model
solutions suggest the risk of some lightning activity this afternoon
in this region, although it appears to be rooted in the mid-levels
and unlikely to produce any severe risk. After dark, more active
thunderstorms may develop over eastern IL and much of IN, but weak
instability will continue to limit any organized severe threat.
..Hart/Weinman.. 03/25/2026
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SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1223 PM CDT Wed Mar 25 2026
Valid 261200Z - 271200Z
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL ILLINOIS AND INDIANA INTO WESTERN OHIO...
...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected late Thursday afternoon
and evening across parts of the Mid-Mississippi and Ohio Valleys.
Very large hail, a few tornadoes, and severe wind gusts will be
possible.
...Mid-MS/OH Valleys...
Several shortwave impulses are expected to migrate through initially
zonal/low-amplitude westerly flow across the Midwest/Great Lakes
region through late afternoon. Stronger height falls will occur
across the region after 00z as a midlevel shortwave trough deepens
across the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes. Despite the low-amplitude
nature of this regime, mid and upper-level flow will be somewhat
strong, with most guidance showing 40-60 kt at 850-700 mb
overspreading the Mid-MS/OH Valley/Great Lakes region by afternoon.
At the surface, a warm front will be oriented across central IA,
extending eastward along the IL/WI and IN/OH/MI border at midday. A
weak surface low/frontal wave will propagate along this zone, with
the front sagging southward as a cold front by late afternoon into
the evening. By the end of the period, the front will be oriented
from the northern Mid-Atlantic southwestward through the Lower OH
valley and into the southern Plains.
Forecast soundings indicate capping could preclude warm sector
convection for much of the daytime hours. In the absence of stronger
large-scale ascent and surface cyclogenesis, the region will
experience a broad warm advection regime, while low-level forcing
along the front increases as it begins to march southward.
Deep-layer flow will largely remain boundary-parallel, though
backing low-level flow is expected near the front across the warm
sector, enhancing low-level SRH. Boundary-layer moisture will be
somewhat modest, generally in the low 60s F, through some pockets of
mid-60s F dewpoints are possible, especially immediately ahead of
the front. A plume of steep midlevel lapse rates will already be in
place over the region, and this will aid in moderate
destabilization, with MLCAPE values reaching 1000-2000 J/kg by peak
heating.
Supercell wind profiles are evident in forecast soundings, with
enlarged/favorably curved low-level hodographs along the front and
45+ kt effective shear magnitudes. Given strong deep-layer flow,
hodographs also are elongated/straight. Supercells producing large
to very large hail (greater than 2+ inch) are possible, even with
potentially elevated convection to the cool side of the boundary. If
any supercell can stay to the warm side of the surface front and
maintain surface-based status, a tornado risk is also possible
(possibly strong tornadoes). With time, convection is expected to
develop into a line or bowing segments given orientation of
deep-shear vectors to the surface boundary. Given strength of
850-700 mb flow and steep lapse rates, damaging winds gusts are
possible.
The severe risk should diminish with south and east extent during
the nighttime hours as storms approach the Ohio River.
..Leitman.. 03/25/2026
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SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0152 PM CDT Wed Mar 25 2026
Valid 271200Z - 281200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated thunderstorms are expected from the upper Ohio Valley into
the Carolinas Friday morning into the afternoon, but severe
thunderstorm potential appears limited.
...Synopsis...
A midlevel shortwave trough will pivot across the eastern U.S. on
Friday. At the surface, a cold front oriented from the Mid-Atlantic
southwestward through the Ohio Valley and southern Plains early
Friday will develop southward through the period, moving offshore by
Saturday morning. Boundary-layer moisture will remain modest ahead
of the front from the Ohio Valley into the Mid-Atlantic and
Carolinas. However, strong heating and steep midlevel lapse rates
will support weak destabilization. Isolated thunderstorms are
possible near and just behind the front within a warm advection
regime atop the boundary. Limited instability and modest vertical
shear will preclude severe thunderstorms.
..Leitman.. 03/25/2026
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SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1123 AM CDT Wed Mar 25 2026
Valid 251700Z - 261200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN WYOMING INTO
FAR WESTERN NEBRASKA AND EXTREME SOUTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA...
No significant changes to the previous fire outlook were necessary.
Robust mid-level westerly flow on the apex of a ridge across the
Intermountain West along with lee troughing across the
central/northern High Plains, will support a broad westerly wind
field across portions of the Northern Rockies, WY and into NE and
northwestern KS through this afternoon. The corridor of strongest
winds of 20-25 mph amid low relative humidity of 15-20% will promote
critical fire weather conditions across much of eastern WY into the
western NE Panhandle. Localized elevated fire weather conditions are
expected across portions of the Great Basin where abnormally warm
temperatures, relative humidity of around 15% and west-southwest
winds of 15-20 mph align this afternoon. However, marginal fuel
dryness should limit a broader fire weather threat across the Great
Basin.
..Williams.. 03/25/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1254 AM CDT Wed Mar 25 2026/
...Synopsis...
Strong upper-level winds will remain across the northern CONUS
today. A surface low/lee trough will develop in the central/northern
Plains, extending southward through the High Plains as well. A
strong cold front will move into the northern Plains into Thursday
morning.
...Wyoming into far western Nebraska/South Dakota...
Critical fire weather is expected by the afternoon as strong
mid-level winds and an increasing surface pressure gradient promote
20-25 mph winds (higher speeds within the terrain). RH will fall to
around 15% amid downslope warming/drying.
Adjacent portions of the northern Rockies and the central Plains
will experience elevated fire weather. Winds will still be strong in
the northern Rockies, but RH may not reach much below 20%. In the
central Plains, a strengthening pressure gradient will increase
winds to around 15 mph at least locally. RH will be 15-20% during
the afternoon.
...Texas Panhandle/South Plains...
The lee trough will promote increasing southerly surface winds by
the afternoon. Winds of 15-20 mph appear possible. On the western
flank of northward returning moisture, RH will fall to 10-20%.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
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