SPC - No watches are valid as of Sat Feb 14 04:14:02 UTC 2026

No watches are valid as of Sat Feb 14 04:14:02 UTC 2026.

SPC MD 72

MD 0072 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR WEST AND NORTHWEST TEXAS...WESTERN OKLAHOMA

Mesoscale Discussion 0072
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1011 PM CST Fri Feb 13 2026

Areas affected...West and Northwest Texas...Western Oklahoma

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 140411Z - 140645Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated severe wind gusts and hail will be possible over
the next few hours across parts of west and northwest Texas into
western Oklahoma.

DISCUSSION...The latest mosaic radar imagery shows a
southwest-to-northeast corridor of scattered thunderstorm
development from west Texas into western Oklahoma. This activity is
being supported by warm advection and by large-scale ascent within
southwesterly mid-level flow. The storms are located near an axis of
weak instability, where the RAP has SBCAPE generally less than 500
J/kg. The RAP is also analyzing a 70 to 80 knot mid-level jet from
southeast New Mexico into southwest Oklahoma. This feature is
creating strong deep-layer shear over most of the southern High
Plains, which will continue to be favorable for a marginal severe
threat late this evening into the early overnight period. Isolated
severe wind gusts and hail will be the primary threats.

..Broyles/Hart.. 02/14/2026

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...OUN...SJT...LUB...AMA...MAF...

LAT...LON   35629966 36219892 36359857 36279816 36109794 35699782
            35179794 34269870 33329961 31870121 31580159 31390194
            31350239 31500280 31750296 32200298 32880240 34740053
            35629966 

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN

SPC Feb 14, 2026 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
      
Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0656 PM CST Fri Feb 13 2026

Valid 140100Z - 141200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM WEST TX TO
SOUTHEAST KS...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated, marginally severe hail and wind are possible tonight
through Saturday morning across parts of the southern Great Plains.

...Southern Great Plains...
Forecast largely remains as advertised with a corridor of generally
marginal severe hail and wind potential from parts of west TX to
southeast KS. See MCD 0071 for short-term discussion across the TX
South Plains. Overall severe threat might increase overnight as an
expanding swath of storms occurs with strengthening large-scale
ascent downstream of the positive-tilt shortwave trough over the
Desert Southwest. Some models, most notably recent HRRR runs, are
insistent on a meso-beta corridor of sustained storm structures
developing in the pre-dawn hours in the Permian Basin vicinity of
west TX. The 00Z MAF observed sounding confirmed a robust speed
shear profile above 800 mb, which is expected to remain
conditionally conducive to a couple mid-level supercells capable of
large hail through early morning. However, the influx of low-level
moisture from the south will remain modest and limit available
buoyancy. In addition, storm mode should remain cluster-dominated,
eventually evolving into a linear structure by 12Z towards the TX
Big Country. These factors may curtail greater severe hail coverage
overnight.

..Grams.. 02/14/2026


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