RSS Mesoscale Discussions from Storm Prediction Center
WW 639 TORNADO LA TX CW 250035Z - 250700Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Tornado Watch Number 639
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
635 PM CST Mon Nov 24 2025
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Tornado Watch for portions of
Northern and Central Louisiana
East-central and Southeast Texas
Coastal Waters
* Effective this Monday night and Tuesday morning from 635 PM
until 100 AM CST.
* Primary threats include...
A couple tornadoes possible
Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible
Isolated large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible
SUMMARY...A line of thunderstorms currently extends from northwest
LA through southeast TX to the Middle TX Coastal Plain. Airmass
ahead of these storms remains moist and unstable, with some increase
in southerly low-level winds expected over the next few hours.
Resulting environmental conditions will support a continued risk for
supercells embedded within the line, as well as the potential for a
few discrete cells ahead of the line. There is enough low-level
shear present for a tornado risk to accompany these supercells, with
damaging gusts possible within the line as well.
The tornado watch area is approximately along and 65 statute miles
north and south of a line from 50 miles west of Houston TX to 50
miles east northeast of Natchitoches LA. For a complete depiction of
the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS
WOU9).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for
tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch
area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for
threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements
and possible warnings.
&&
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 638...
AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail
surface and aloft to 1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind
gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean
storm motion vector 24035.
...Mosier
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WW 0639 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0639 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET
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WW 0638 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 638
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 WNW CLL
TO 35 NNE CLL TO 50 NW LFK TO 5 NW GGG.
..JEWELL..11/24/25
ATTN...WFO...SHV...FWD...HGX...LCH...
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 638
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
LAC031-081-085-250040-
LA
. LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE
DE SOTO RED RIVER SABINE
TXC005-015-041-051-073-157-185-199-201-225-241-291-313-339-347-
351-365-373-401-403-405-407-419-455-457-471-473-477-250040-
TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ANGELINA AUSTIN BRAZOS
BURLESON CHEROKEE FORT BEND
GRIMES HARDIN HARRIS
HOUSTON JASPER LIBERTY
MADISON MONTGOMERY NACOGDOCHES
NEWTON PANOLA POLK
RUSK SABINE SAN AUGUSTINE
SAN JACINTO SHELBY TRINITY
TYLER WALKER WALLER
WASHINGTON
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MD 2225 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 638... FOR SOUTHEAST TX INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
Mesoscale Discussion 2225
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0601 PM CST Mon Nov 24 2025
Areas affected...Southeast TX into the lower Mississippi Valley
Concerning...Tornado Watch 638...
Valid 250001Z - 250130Z
The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 638 continues.
SUMMARY...Scattered thunderstorms will spread across southeast Texas
into the lower Mississippi Valley this evening. Some risk for
tornadoes exists with the most robust convection. New Tornado Watch
will likely be warranted by 25/01z.
DISCUSSION...Latest water-vapor imagery depicts a well-defined
short-wave trough in the southern stream over the Hill Country of
south central TX. This feature will approach the lower Sabine River
Valley later this evening which may encourage the warm front to
eventually lift a bit north across northern LA/central MS later
tonight. While more buoyant air mass is noted across southeast TX
into southern LA, stronger low-level warm advection will be focused
along the AR/LA border into northern MS, coincident with stronger
850mb flow (LLJ).
Over the last hour or so, convection has gradually increased in
intensity from near VCT-southern Madison County TX. The
aforementioned short wave is likely aiding this activity. Current
thinking is large-scale support will spread downstream this evening
and likely prove instrumental in new development across the lower MS
Valley. Shear profiles remain supportive of supercells, and adequate
SBCAPE exists across this region for robust updrafts and possible
tornadoes. New Tornado Watch will likely be issued by 25/01z.
..Darrow.. 11/25/2025
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...JAN...LIX...LCH...SHV...HGX...
LAT...LON 30789588 32149407 32869124 31279099 29689531 30789588
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-130 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN
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SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0640 PM CST Mon Nov 24 2025
Valid 250100Z - 251200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM FAR EAST
TEXAS INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY...
...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms remain possible through the overnight
hours, from far east Texas into central/southern Mississippi.
...Synopsis...
As of 00:30 UTC, a broken line of thunderstorms continues from far
northeast LA southward towards the Houston metro area. While most
cells have remained sub-severe thus far, MRMS VIL and GOES IR
cloud-top temperature trends show a slight uptick in intensity over
the past hour. Additionally, a slight uptick in 0-2 km winds is
noted in warm-sector VWP observations, which is bolstering SRH and
improving the overall convective environment immediately downstream
of ongoing storms. This environment, characterized by STP values
between 1-2, is expected to persist through the overnight hours as
an upper wave and attendant (albeit weak) surface low translate
eastward towards the MS Valley. Some northward advancement of the
surface warm front is anticipated as low-level winds increase to
30-40 knots, which should maintain the potential for strong/severe
storms, including the potential for a few tornadoes,
east/northeastward into portions of west-central MS by 09-12 UTC. It
remains unclear exactly how far northward the surface-based warm
sector will expand through early morning, but even modest MLCAPE
(around 500 J/kg) may support a tornado threat given 0-1 km SRH on
the order of 250 m2/s2. For additional short-term details see MCD
#2225.
..Moore.. 11/25/2025
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SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0303 PM CST Mon Nov 24 2025
Valid 261200Z - 021200Z
Deep upper-level troughing over the eastern US and weaker
upper-level ridging over the West will continue through mid-week
before transitioning into quasi-zonal flow across the CONUS.
Upper-level troughing is likely to develop over the West this
weekend, but forecast guidance varies widely on the strength and
trajectory of the troughing over the West.
...Day 4/Thursday - Day 5/Friday: Southeast Coastal Plain into
Florida...
A cold front will push through the Southeast on Day 3/Wednesday -
Day 4/Thursday, with dry/locally breezy post-frontal conditions
expected. Elevated to locally critically winds/RH are possible from
the coastal Carolinas into the Florida Panhandle Day 4/Thursday,
with dry/locally breezy conditions likely continuing Day 5/Friday
and expanding into central Florida. Probabilities for critical fire
weather conditions were not added due to potential rainfall ahead of
the front and uncertainty regarding the overlap of critical
winds/RH. If the rainfall does not materialize or confidence grows
in areas that will receive little to no rainfall, probabilities will
be necessary in subsequent outlooks.
...Day 6/Saturday - Day 7/Sunday: Southwest Texas...
Dry/windy conditions are possible across southwest Texas this
weekend. However, given the aforementioned high uncertainty
regarding the potential troughing over the West and marginal fuel
dryness, no probabilities for critical conditions were introduced.
..Nauslar.. 11/24/2025
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
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