RSS Mesoscale Discussions from Storm Prediction Center
WW 7 TORNADO AL FL LA MS CW 150520Z - 151100Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Tornado Watch Number 7
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1120 PM CST Sat Feb 14 2026
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Tornado Watch for portions of
Southwest Alabama
Western Florida Panhandle
Southeast Louisiana
Southern Mississippi
Coastal Waters
* Effective this Saturday night and Sunday morning from 1120 PM
until 500 AM CST.
* Primary threats include...
A few tornadoes possible
Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible
SUMMARY...A fast-moving squall line will traverse the watch area
overnight. Several embedded areas of circulation may persist, with
a risk of a few tornadoes and damaging wind events.
The tornado watch area is approximately along and 100 statute miles
east and west of a line from 65 miles northeast of Pine Belt MS to
25 miles south southwest of Boothville LA. For a complete depiction
of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS
WOU7).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for
tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch
area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for
threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements
and possible warnings.
&&
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 6...
AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail
surface and aloft to 1 inch. Extreme turbulence and surface wind
gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 450. Mean
storm motion vector 25035.
...Hart
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WW 0007 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 7
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 75 SW HUM TO
15 E HUM TO 5 ENE ASD TO 10 SW PIB TO 25 WNW MEI.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0082
..MOORE..02/15/26
ATTN...WFO...MOB...LIX...JAN...
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 7
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ALC003-023-025-053-097-129-150940-
AL
. ALABAMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BALDWIN CHOCTAW CLARKE
ESCAMBIA MOBILE WASHINGTON
FLC033-091-113-150940-
FL
. FLORIDA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ESCAMBIA OKALOOSA SANTA ROSA
LAC051-071-075-087-150940-
LA
. LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE
JEFFERSON ORLEANS PLAQUEMINES
Read more
WW 0006 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 7
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 75 SW HUM TO
15 E HUM TO 5 ENE ASD TO 10 SW PIB TO 25 WNW MEI.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0082
..MOORE..02/15/26
ATTN...WFO...MOB...LIX...JAN...
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 7
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ALC003-023-025-053-097-129-150940-
AL
. ALABAMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BALDWIN CHOCTAW CLARKE
ESCAMBIA MOBILE WASHINGTON
FLC033-091-113-150940-
FL
. FLORIDA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ESCAMBIA OKALOOSA SANTA ROSA
LAC051-071-075-087-150940-
LA
. LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE
JEFFERSON ORLEANS PLAQUEMINES
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MD 0082 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 7... FOR SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI...FAR SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA AND FAR SOUTHWEST ALABAMA
Mesoscale Discussion 0082
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0115 AM CST Sun Feb 15 2026
Areas affected...Southern Mississippi...far southeast Louisiana and
far southwest Alabama
Concerning...Tornado Watch 7...
Valid 150715Z - 150915Z
The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 7 continues.
SUMMARY...The potential for severe gusts and brief embedded
circulations is expected to continue across portions of the lower
Mississippi River Valley and into far southwest Alabama over the
next several hours.
DISCUSSION...A well-organized QLCS continues to progress eastward
across the lower MS River Valley per regional radar mosaics. KDGX
imagery has sampled at least two tornadic debris signatures within
the past hour on the northern flank of a bowing segment of the line
where 0-1 km SRH is on the order of 400 m2/s2 per KDGX VWP
observations. However, this section of the line is moving into a
drier, less buoyant airmass, and lightning activity has been
decreasing within the past 20-30 minutes. While brief circulations
will remain possible in the near-term (next hour or so), a gradual
weakening of the line is anticipated roughly along and north of
Highway 84 in southern MS/southwest AL.
Further south, more backed southerly winds imply slightly weaker
low-level shear, but a recent 06 UTC sounding from LIX sampled
around 280 m2/s2 effective SRH within a sufficiently buoyant air
mass preceding the line. This environment will continue to support
organized convection with the potential for strong/severe wind gusts
and embedded mesovortices - especially where more meridional
segments can become established within the line. Coastal surface
observations show mid-60 dewpoints spreading as far east as the
MS/AL border, suggesting that the downstream environment is
favorable for maintaining the QLCS for several more hours along and
just north of the coastline.
..Moore.. 02/15/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...MOB...JAN...LIX...
LAT...LON 29339104 29839059 30968982 31338968 31838979 32168995
32378989 32528970 32548925 32448876 32228846 31958832
31708825 31168816 30818815 30428824 30308846 30258872
30138887 29928912 29648940 29298980 29139007 29069045
29049069 29159104 29339104
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
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SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1138 PM CST Sat Feb 14 2026
Valid 151200Z - 161200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHEAST
ALABAMA ACROSS SOUTHERN GEORGIA...AND OVER MUCH OF THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE AND NORTHERN FLORIDA...
...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible today across much of
northern Florida and into parts of southern Georgia and Alabama.
Wind damage as well as a tornado or two will be possible.
...Synopsis...
A fast-moving shortwave trough will move across the Southeast today,
with gradual filling/weakening. Moderate midlevel winds over 60 kt
will spread across AL, GA and northern FL, enhancing deep-layer
shear, while a weak surface low translates east/northeast from AL
into the eastern Carolinas. South of the low, a warm front will
stretch roughly from southern AL into the northeast Gulf Sunday
morning, and will lift north into GA during the day and ahead of an
approaching cold front. The combination of lift along the front,
strong shear profiles and sufficient instability will likely result
in scattered severe storms producing wind and perhaps a few
tornadoes throughout the day.
...Southern AL and GA into the FL Panhandle/northern FL...
A squall line is positioned from southwest MS into southeast LA late
Saturday evening, coincident with the strong midlevel cooling with
the upper wave. This line of storms is likely to progress eastward
to at least the MS/AL border before 12Z, and perhaps even into
central AL and the western FL Panhandle. Southerly surface winds
will help bring mid 60s F dewpoints northward ahead of the line,
though much of the area will maintain relatively marginal moisture
with 50s F dewpoints until the squall line/cold front is near.
Given the favorable synoptic lift and sufficient instability, the
line of storms is likely to persist throughout the day, perhaps with
renewed vigor as it travels across northern FL/southern GA during
the peak heating hours. Even if the moisture is not particularly
robust well inland, steeper boundary layer lapse rates combined with
the linear storm mode and 30-40 kt winds just off the surface will
support damaging gusts. For southern areas, higher dewpoints as well
as 200+ m2/s2 effective SRH will support rotation with the line with
a few QLCS tornadoes possible.
..Jewell/Supinie.. 02/15/2026
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SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1157 PM CST Sat Feb 14 2026
Valid 161200Z - 171200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY ACROSS
PARTS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA...
...SUMMARY...
Strong thunderstorms may impact southern California coastal areas,
mainly south of Vandenberg AFB into the Los Angeles Basin, and
perhaps parts of the Central Valley, on Monday, accompanied by at
least some risk for damaging wind gusts and perhaps a couple of
tornadoes.
...Discussion...
General trends concerning the mid/upper flow evolution depicted in
prior model runs for this period continue. To the northeast of a
blocking mid-level ridge centered over the southern mid-latitude
Pacific (between 150-160W longitude), a vigorous short wave
perturbation is forecast to undergo further amplification while
digging offshore of the British Columbia and Pacific Northwest
coast. It appears that this will be accompanied by
lower/mid-tropospheric cyclogenesis, and force an initially
significant downstream trough inland across California and much of
the Great Basin by late Monday night.
As this occurs, deep surface troughing is also forecast to develop
farther inland during the latter half of the period, becoming
centered near the northern Rockies through the central and southern
Great Plains by 12Z Tuesday. Farther downstream, models indicate
that warm/dry elevated mixed-layer air will continue advecting
northeastward, overspreading much of the central and southern Great
Plains and Gulf Basin. At the same time, further lower tropospheric
cooling and drying appears probable across much of the Gulf Basin,
in the wake of mid-level troughing and an associated rapidly
deepening surface cyclone migrating away from the middle and
southern Atlantic Seaboard.
It still appears that the inland migrating mid/upper-level troughing
will be accompanied by an intense jet (including a 100-110+ kt speed
maximum around 500 mb) nosing inland across southern California
through the Four Corners. Forcing associated with this feature may
be promoting modest cyclogenesis offshore of the California coast by
the beginning of the period. The low may deepen a bit further while
occluding and migrating inland near or south of the San Francisco
Bay vicinity during the day Monday.
...Southern California coast...
Models continue to suggest that a corridor of low-level moistening,
along and ahead of the front trailing the occluding surface low, may
gradually contribute to sufficient destabilization to support
deepening convective development while spreading inland across
coastal areas, mainly south of Vandenberg AFB through the Los
Angeles Basin, perhaps beginning as early as late Monday morning.
Aided by mid/upper forcing for ascent and strong mid-level cooling,
thermodynamic profiles may become supportive of thunderstorm
development, in the presence of strong deep-layer shear. Wind
profiles may include 40-50 kt southerly flow around the 850 mb
level, with sizable clockwise curved low-level hodographs
developing, mainly where the favorable orientation of the Transverse
Ranges with respect to the low-level flow contributes to backing of
near-surface wind fields. As this occurs, the environment may
become conducive to the development of supercells capable of
producing tornadoes, in addition to potentially damaging wind gusts.
...Central Valley...
There is notable spread evident among the various model output, but
at least some guidance suggests that the inland migrating low, and
perhaps an associated lingering mid-level cyclonic circulation, may
contribute to a focused area of lift, weak low-level destabilization
and strengthening shear by Monday afternoon. NAM forecast
soundings, perhaps more so than other guidance, suggest that the
environment might become conducive to the risk for a brief, weak
tornado or two.
..Kerr.. 02/15/2026
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SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0228 AM CST Sun Feb 15 2026
Valid 171200Z - 181200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Scattered thunderstorm activity is possible across Pacific coastal
areas and the Central Valley of California Tuesday into Tuesday
night, as well as across parts of the mid Missouri Valley into Upper
Midwest Tuesday night. However, the risk for severe storms appears
low.
...Discussion...
Models indicate that a lower/mid-tropospheric cyclone, initially
offshore of the Pacific Northwest coast, will weaken while migrating
inland Tuesday. However, an associated intense offshore northerly
mid/upper jet streak is forecast to continue digging southeastward
toward coastal areas south of San Francisco Bay, through the
southern Sierra Nevada, maintaining amplified larger-scale troughing
across and inland of the U.S. Pacific coast.
The remnants of a preceding inland migrating trough, including at
least a couple of emerging smaller-scale perturbations, are forecast
to pivot east and northeast of the Rockies, across much of the
middle and lower Missouri Valley by late Tuesday night, as a broad
belt of seasonably strong west-southwesterly flow continues
developing to the lee of the southern Rockies through the Mid
Atlantic Seaboard.
In lower levels, the latest model output suggests that initially
deep surface troughing, along an axis from the northern Rockies into
the central and southern Great Plains, will shift across the middle
and lower Missouri Valley toward the Upper Midwest. However, it
appears that it will slowly weaken as it does, and stronger
southerly low-level flow across the central/southern Great Plains
into Ohio Valley is likely to maintain a notable westerly component.
Coupled with preceding low-level drying across much of the Gulf
Basin, low-level moisture return will be rather limited beneath a
warm/dry elevated mixed-layer initially overspreading much of the
central and southern Great Plains through middle and lower
Mississippi Valley.
...Pacific Coast...
Low probabilities for thunderstorm activity may linger into early
Tuesday nearly southern California coastal areas. However, the
primary convective potential, including scattered thunderstorm
development, seems likely to become focused across northern and
central California coastal areas into the Central Valley Tuesday
afternoon into Tuesday night. This will accompany strong mid-level
cooling and forcing for ascent associated with the digging mid/upper
jet. Stronger cells may become capable of producing at least small
hail and gusty winds, but it is not yet clear that thermodynamic
profiles will support activity approaching or exceeding severe
limits.
...Mid Missouri Valley into Upper Midwest...
There appears at least some signal in the latest model output that
the limited moisture return, coupled with strong differential
lower/mid-tropospheric thermal advection, could support weak
elevated convection capable of producing lightning in a corridor
spreading northeast of the middle Missouri Valley Tuesday evening.
..Kerr.. 02/15/2026
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SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1221 AM CST Sun Feb 15 2026
Valid 151200Z - 161200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHWESTERN NEBRASKA
AND FAR SOUTHWESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA...
...Synopsis...
Shortwave ridging will be in place across the southern Rockies
through the day today with a weak jet max near the apex of the
ridge. This will promote a weak surface low in the Dakotas, bringing
dry, breezy conditions to portions of the northern and central High
Plains. A Critical area has been maintained in portions of
northwestern Nebraska and far southwestern South Dakota, where winds
are expected to be 15-25 mph with RH of 10-15% in the presence of
dry fuels. Surrounding this is an Elevated area reaching westward to
mountains. Portions of central Colorado near the Front Range have
seen some rain in the last few days, however, have maintained an
Elevated area here due to low RH and enhanced flow near the
mountains.
In addition, some transient Elevated fire weather conditions are
possible across portions of northeast New Mexico during the
afternoon, with 15-20 mph winds and RH near 15-20% in the presence
of modestly dry fuels. However, due to the marginal, localized
nature, have not introduced an Elevated area here.
..Supinie.. 02/15/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
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SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1222 AM CST Sun Feb 15 2026
Valid 161200Z - 171200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
...Synopsis...
A shortwave ridge over the central CONUS will move eastward through
the day on Monday as a trough digs into the western CONUS and the
associated jet max overspreads the central and southern Rockies. In
response, lee troughing will develop over southeastern Colorado,
which is expected to promote dry and breezy conditions amid strong
vertical mixing across portions of the southern High Plains. Here,
winds may be near 20-25 mph and RH near 10-15% in the presence of
dry fuels. Therefore, an Elevated area has been introduced across
portions of northeastern New Mexico, the Texas and Oklahoma
Panhandles, and adjacent areas of far southeastern Colorado and
southwestern Kansas.
..Supinie.. 02/15/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
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