RSS Mesoscale Discussions from Storm Prediction Center
No watches are valid as of Sat Nov 22 00:47:02 UTC 2025.
No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Sat Nov 22 00:47:02 UTC 2025.
SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0642 PM CST Fri Nov 21 2025
Valid 220100Z - 221200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ROUGHLY FROM THE
OHIO VALLEY SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe storms remain possible across parts of
northern Mississippi and Alabama, Tennessee and Kentucky. Small to
marginal hail or gusty winds may occur.
...Discussion...
A low-amplitude shortwave trough will continue moving out of MO and
across the OH Valley tonight, with cooling aloft eventually
extending southward across the TN Valley. Midlevel winds of 50-70 kt
will be present within the speed max, from the OH River into TN,
resulting in elongated hodographs.
At the surface, low pressure will translate eastward along a
quasi-stationary boundary extending from southern MO/IL into central
KY, though this front will sink south late.
Minimal lift will exist along this boundary, but the ejecting
midlevel wave atop the warm sector with 60s F dewpoints may result
in isolated cells, some possibly reaching severe limits with
marginal hail over northern areas, and/or wind elsewhere. Winds
around 850 mb will be quite veered, with mostly straightline
hodographs, favoring cells.
00Z soundings confirm generally strong deep-layer shear but poor
lapse rates aloft and weak instability. However, areas of lift
overnight may still result in isolated strong storms within the
marginal area.
..Jewell.. 11/22/2025
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SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0307 PM CST Fri Nov 21 2025
Valid 231200Z - 291200Z
...Synopsis...
Limited fire weather concerns are expected across the contiguous
U.S. for the Day 3-8/Sunday-Friday forecast period. An eastward
moving upper-level trough across the Southwest on Day 3/Sunday along
with nascent surface cyclogenesis across the Central Plains should
usher in deeper Gulf moisture from the south, promoting another
widespread precipitation event across much of the southern/central
Plains through Day 4/Monday. The surface cyclone moves into the
Great Lakes/Upper Midwest by midweek, with a trailing cold front and
associated precipitation band affecting much of the eastern U.S.
through Day 6/Wednesday. Dry, post-frontal flow across the Southeast
on Day 7/Thursday could present elevated fire weather concerns
across southern GA/northern FL where drought and patches of dry
fuels remain, although some preceding rainfall on Day 6/Wednesday
would limit a broader threat.
Dry conditions reemerge across CA and much of the Southwest next
week as mid-level riding amplifies into the West. A broad surface
high pressure evolving across the Intermountain West will promote an
increasing offshore pressure gradient across central/southern CA
through much of the week. However, recent widespread rainfall and
unreceptive fuels should limit fire weather concerns across southern
CA next week.
..Williams.. 11/21/2025
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
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