RSS Mesoscale Discussions from Storm Prediction Center
WW 449 SEVERE TSTM IA NE 032035Z - 040400Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 449
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
335 PM CDT Fri Jul 3 2026
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of
Southwest Iowa
Southeast Nebraska
* Effective this Friday afternoon and evening from 335 PM until
1100 PM CDT.
* Primary threats include...
Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely
Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2
inches in diameter possible
A tornado or two possible
SUMMARY...Thunderstorms will continue to develop across southeast
Nebraska in a moist and unstable air mass. The strongest cells will
pose a risk of large hail and damaging wind gusts.
The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 60
statute miles north and south of a line from 35 miles west of
Lincoln NE to 25 miles northeast of Shenandoah IA. For a complete
depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update
(WOUS64 KWNS WOU9).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.
&&
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 445...WW 446...WW
447...WW 448...
AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A
few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector
27025.
...Hart
Read more
WW 448 SEVERE TSTM DE MD NJ NY PA CW 031925Z - 040300Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 448
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
325 PM EDT Fri Jul 3 2026
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of
Northern Delaware
Northeast Maryland
New Jersey
Southern New York
Central and Eastern Pennsylvania
Coastal Waters
* Effective this Friday afternoon and evening from 325 PM until
1100 PM EDT.
* Primary threats include...
Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely
SUMMARY...Thunderstorms are intensifying over southern New York and
northern Pennsylvania in a hot/humid air mass. These storms will
track southeastward through the afternoon and early evening, posing
a risk of locally damaging wind gusts.
The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 100
statute miles east and west of a line from 25 miles northwest of
Binghamton NY to 40 miles west southwest of Wilmington DE. For a
complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline
update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU8).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.
&&
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 445...WW 446...WW 447...
AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
1 inch. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few
cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector
29030.
...Hart
Read more
WW 447 SEVERE TSTM IN MI OH LE LM 031835Z - 040200Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 447
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
235 PM EDT Fri Jul 3 2026
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of
Northern Indiana
Southern Lower Michigan
Northwest Ohio
Lake Erie
Lake Michigan
* Effective this Friday afternoon and evening from 235 PM until
1000 PM EDT.
* Primary threats include...
Scattered damaging winds likely with isolated significant gusts
to 75 mph possible
Isolated large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible
SUMMARY...A line of thunderstorms crossing southern Lake Michigan
will track eastward across the watch area this afternoon. Damaging
winds gusts may accompany the stronger cells.
The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 60
statute miles north and south of a line from 35 miles west southwest
of Benton Harbor MI to 15 miles southeast of Mount Clemens MI. For a
complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline
update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU7).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.
&&
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 445...WW 446...
AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 65 knots. A
few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector
27035.
...Hart
Read more
WW 446 SEVERE TSTM SD 031815Z - 040200Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 446
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1215 PM MDT Fri Jul 3 2026
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of
Southwest South Dakota
* Effective this Friday afternoon and evening from 1215 PM until
800 PM MDT.
* Primary threats include...
Scattered large hail likely with isolated very large hail events
to 2.5 inches in diameter possible
Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible
A tornado or two possible
SUMMARY...Thunderstorms will continue to intensify over the Black
Hills and track southeastward through the afternoon. Very large
hail and damaging winds are possible.
The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 50
statute miles north and south of a line from 50 miles west southwest
of Rapid City SD to 75 miles east southeast of Philip SD. For a
complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline
update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU6).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.
&&
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 445...
AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
2.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A
few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector
28025.
...Hart
Read more
WW 445 SEVERE TSTM IL IN WI LM 031655Z - 040000Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 445
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1155 AM CDT Fri Jul 3 2026
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of
Northeast Illinois
Northwest Indiana
Southeast Wisconsin
Lake Michigan
* Effective this Friday morning and evening from 1155 AM until
700 PM CDT.
* Primary threats include...
Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible
Isolated large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible
SUMMARY...A line of thunderstorms over northern Illinois will track
eastward toward the Lake shore this afternoon, while other storms
form farther south. Damaging wind gusts may occur with the stronger
storms.
The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 40
statute miles east and west of a line from 45 miles south southeast
of Marseilles IL to 10 miles north of Racine WI. For a complete
depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update
(WOUS64 KWNS WOU5).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.
&&
AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A
few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector
26025.
...Hart
Read more
WW 0449 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0449 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET
Read more
WW 0448 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0448 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET
Read more
WW 0447 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 447
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NNW VPZ
TO 20 W AZO TO 20 WSW GRR TO 15 ENE MKG.
..LEITMAN..07/03/26
ATTN...WFO...IWX...GRR...DTX...
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 447
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
INC033-039-085-087-091-099-113-141-149-151-032140-
IN
. INDIANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
DE KALB ELKHART KOSCIUSKO
LAGRANGE LA PORTE MARSHALL
NOBLE ST. JOSEPH STARKE
STEUBEN
MIC015-021-023-025-027-037-045-049-059-065-067-075-077-081-087-
091-093-099-115-125-147-149-155-161-163-032140-
MI
. MICHIGAN COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BARRY BERRIEN BRANCH
CALHOUN CASS CLINTON
EATON GENESEE HILLSDALE
INGHAM IONIA JACKSON
KALAMAZOO KENT LAPEER
LENAWEE LIVINGSTON MACOMB
MONROE OAKLAND ST. CLAIR
ST. JOSEPH SHIAWASSEE WASHTENAW
Read more
WW 0446 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 446
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..LEITMAN..07/03/26
ATTN...WFO...UNR...ABR...
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 446
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
SDC007-033-047-055-071-075-081-093-095-102-103-121-123-032140-
SD
. SOUTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BENNETT CUSTER FALL RIVER
HAAKON JACKSON JONES
LAWRENCE MEADE MELLETTE
OGLALA LAKOTA PENNINGTON TODD
TRIPP
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
Read more
WW 0445 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 445
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 WSW MMO
TO 25 WSW BEH.
..LEITMAN..07/03/26
ATTN...WFO...LOT...MKX...
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 445
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ILC053-063-075-091-093-099-105-197-032140-
IL
. ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
FORD GRUNDY IROQUOIS
KANKAKEE KENDALL LA SALLE
LIVINGSTON WILL
INC007-073-089-111-127-032140-
IN
. INDIANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BENTON JASPER LAKE
NEWTON PORTER
LMZ645-743-744-745-032140-
CW
. ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE
Read more
MD 1474 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 447... FOR SOUTHEAST LOWER MICHIGAN
Mesoscale Discussion 1474
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0442 PM CDT Fri Jul 03 2026
Areas affected...Southeast Lower Michigan
Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 447...
Valid 032142Z - 032345Z
The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 447
continues.
SUMMARY...A broken line of thunderstorms continues to develop a
cohesive cold pool, which will likely maintain the threat for
damaging/severe winds over the next 1-2 hours as it approaches the
greater Detroit area.
DISCUSSION...Over the past hour, recent regional reflectivity and
velocity data from Lower MI/northern IN depicts the gradual
emergence of a more cohesive cold pool within an otherwise broken
band of thunderstorms. Concurrently, GOES IR imagery has shown
periodic bursts of intense updrafts and a gradual cooling trend in
cloud-top temperatures, further suggesting that some
organization/consolidation is occurring. Latest RAP mesoanalyses
continue to show an MLCAPE gradient draped eastward across the
greater Detroit area ahead of the convective band. Although
deep-layer shear remains somewhat meager, propagation along this
boundary appears likely over the next few hours. Based on latest
storm track estimates, this band will begin to impact the greater
Detroit area between the next 1-2 hours and will likely pose a
threat for damaging/severe winds (most likely between 50-65 mph).
..Moore.. 07/03/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...CLE...DTX...IWX...GRR...
LAT...LON 41578527 41888491 42168469 42628470 42718455 42768274
42638258 42348276 42168288 41978305 41788317 41628336
41578527
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
Read more
MD 1473 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR NORTHWEST AND NORTH-CENTRAL NEBRASKA
Mesoscale Discussion 1473
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0441 PM CDT Fri Jul 03 2026
Areas affected...Northwest and North-central Nebraska
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible
Valid 032141Z - 032345Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent
SUMMARY...Isolated severe wind gusts and hail will be possible
across parts of northwest and north-central Nebraska this evening.
Additional weather watch issuance may be needed.
DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms are currently developing along an axis of
moderate instability that extends northward from northwest Nebraska
into southwest South Dakota. The storms appear to be supported by a
mid-level shortwave trough evident on water vapor imagery. Due to
large-scale ascent, convective coverage is expected to increase over
the next few hours. In addition, the Rapid City WSR-88D VWP has 0-6
km shear around 40 knots. This, combined with steep lapse rates in
the low to mid-levels, will support a severe threat this evening.
Supercells should be capable of isolated large hail and severe wind
gusts. Severe gusts will also be possible with short intense line
segments. Further southwest, storms are ongoing in far southeast
Wyoming. These cells are forecast to remain intact, moving eastward
across western Nebraska over the next few hours. Severe wind gusts
and hail will also be possible in and near the stronger cores.
..Broyles/Gleason.. 07/03/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...LBF...BOU...CYS...
LAT...LON 42950241 42850303 42530354 41890395 41450401 41120388
40990366 40960321 40970181 41110117 41300083 41580063
42030051 42530060 42770084 42900118 42950154 42950241
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN
Read more
MD 1472 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 448... FOR SOUTHERN NEW YORK INTO EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA AND PORTIONS OF NEW JERSEY
Mesoscale Discussion 1472
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0334 PM CDT Fri Jul 03 2026
Areas affected...Southern New York into eastern Pennsylvania and
portions of New Jersey
Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 448...
Valid 032034Z - 032230Z
The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 448
continues.
SUMMARY...The damaging wind threat for WW 448 continues as storms
move east-southeast across the watch area.
DISCUSSION...Severe thunderstorm activity has continued to increase
in coverage amidst a hot and humid boundary layer. While the
multicellular convection is generally disorganized, steep lapse
rates, modest precipitable water content, and high LCL heights all
support a damaging wind threat with the strongest thunderstorm
downdrafts. An additional round of thunderstorms moving across Lake
Ontario could potentially impact northern portions of the watch
area, but the general expectation is for convective activity to
diminish into the evening with the removal of solar heating.
..Halbert.. 07/03/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...BUF...CTP...LWX...
LAT...LON 41907822 42287805 42457727 42467583 42377472 41957440
41387443 40267467 39677536 39427620 39627720 40177802
40837817 41457821 41907822
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
Read more
SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0233 PM CDT Fri Jul 03 2026
Valid 032000Z - 041200Z
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF
EASTERN NEBRASKA INTO WESTERN IOWA AND SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN...
...SUMMARY...
A swath of damaging to severe gusts is expected across southern
Lower Michigan over the next few hours. Scattered damaging gusts are
also likely over portions of the Mid Atlantic. Otherwise, scattered
wind damage and large hail are still expected from parts of Nebraska
into Iowa today. Isolated to scattered severe storms remain possible
extending eastward from the northern/central Plains into the Midwest
and Tennessee Valley.
...20Z Update...
The main change made to this outlook was to upgrade southern Lower
MI to a Category 3/Enhanced Risk, driven by 30 percent/CIG1 wind
probabilities. A cold-pool-driven MCS, with some bowing tendencies
and a history of producing numerous measured gusts in the 60-70 mph,
is rapidly approaching southern Lower MI. KGRR inbound velocity data
shows a rear-inflow jet exists with this MCS, and surface
observations/latest mesoanalysis show a favorable environment in
place for bow-echo persistence. Surface temperatures are exceeding
90 F in spots, amid 70-75 F surface dewpoints, yielding a gradient
of 1500-3500 J/kg MLCAPE. Up to 30 kts of effective bulk shear
coincides with this buoyancy gradient, with vectors oriented normal
to the MCS leading-line orientation. Therefore, the expectation is
for a damaging wind swath to occur over southern Lower MI with the
passage of this MCS. At least scattered gusts will likely exceed 50
kts in intensity, and a few of these gusts may exceed 75 mph.
30 percent wind-driven probabilities were also added over portions
of eastern PA into far southeastern NY and NJ, where surface
temperatures are exceeding 100 F in spots ahead of a developing
multicellular cluster. While vertical wind shear is modest, the
well-mixed boundary layer is yielding low-level lapse rates well
over 8 C/km on a widespread basis, with corresponding DCAPE
approaching 1500 J/kg. As such, several of the stronger storm cores
may produce wet downbursts capable of at least tree/wire damage on a
scattered basis, and a few severe gusts are also possible.
Otherwise, the previous forecast (see below) remains on track.
..Squitieri.. 07/03/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1100 AM CDT Fri Jul 03 2026/
...SD/NE...
Water vapor loop shows a weak shortwave trough over central WY
approaching the Black Hills region. This, along with remnant
outflow boundaries from recent convection, will aid in the
development of scattered thunderstorms over western SD/NE by
mid/late afternoon. Steep mid-level lapse rates and supercell
structures will promote the risk of very large hail in the initial
storms over the Black Hills. Activity is expected to organized into
a bowing MCS during the evening and track roughly along the NE/SD
border with a risk of severe wind and hail.
...NE/IA/Northwest MO...
Moderately strong southerly low-level winds over KS will maintain a
hot/humid air mass across southeast NE today. Thunderstorms are
expected to intensify along pre-existing outflow boundaries by late
afternoon and develop/move into IA. Large CAPE in this region
(MLCAPE > 4000 J/kg) and sufficient westerly flow aloft will pose a
risk of supercells capable of large hail and damaging winds through
the evening hours.
...IA/IL/IN/MI/OH...
A remnant outflow boundary is also tracking eastward across the MS
river into northern IL. The air mass ahead of this boundary is very
moist and unstable with dewpoints in the mid 70s and peak diurnal
CAPE values expected to exceed 3500 J/kg. Models differ on
convective evolution of storms that form in this regime, but there
is potential for an upscale-growing MCS producing a swath of wind
damage from northern IL into parts of IN/MI and northwest OH this
evening.
...NY/PA/NJ...
Hot and humid conditions are present across much of the northeast
states today, with full sunshine leading to steep low-level lapse
rates and moderate CAPE. It is unclear how many thunderstorms will
form in this region today given weak forcing. However, the
environment is conditionally favorable for damaging winds in any
convective clusters that can persist.
...TN Valley/Southern Appalachians...
A widespread moist and unstable air mass will aid in the development
of disorganized and slow-moving thunderstorms again this afternoon
and early evening. Weak winds aloft suggest chaotic storm
evolutions, but the strongest cells will pose a risk of locally
damaging winds gusts and small hail throughout the area.
Read more
SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1232 PM CDT Fri Jul 03 2026
Valid 041200Z - 051200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE UPPER
OHIO VALLEY INTO THE MID ATLANTIC...AND OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS...
...SUMMARY...
Clusters of storms may evolve across parts of the Allegheny Plateau
into Mid Atlantic, and across the central Great Plains Saturday
afternoon and evening, posing a risk for damaging wind gusts. Large
hail is also possible across the Great Plains.
...Synopsis...
An upper trough will be located over eastern Canada, with southern
periphery sweeping across the Northeast with 30 kt midlevel
westerlies extending as far south as PA/NJ. To the west, a weak
upper trough will move across the northern and central Plains, with
embedded disturbances related to thunderstorms into parts of the
Midwest. Relatively cool temperatures aloft will exist across the
Plains region, aiding destabilization.
At the surface, a trough will extend from the TX Panhandle into MO,
IL, and IN, with a moist and unstable air mass nearby. Easterly
winds north of this trough will maintain moderate moisture levels
into the central High Plains. A surface trough will also deepen over
the Northeast and Mid Atlantic during the day, providing a focus for
storms during the afternoon from VA into PA/NJ.
...PA...VA...MD...DE...NJ...
Substantial moisture and instability will exist across the region,
with tall CAPE profiles and 3000-4000 J/kg MUCAPE common with 70s F
dewpoints and daytime heating. Storms may develop in several areas,
including southern NY into PA and OH, and, within the trough VA into
PA/NJ.
CAMs generally suggest scattered cells developing by mid afternoon
over much of VA and into PA, MD, DE and NJ. Scattered wind gusts of
40-50 kt appear likely, with isolated stronger gusts. Weak
westerlies aloft may support slow east/southeastward moving cells.
...CO...NE...KS...
Scattered storms are forecast to develop from southeast WY into the
Front Range, as well as western NE, during the afternoon beneath
cool temperatures aloft and where low-level easterlies will aid
moisture advection into the heated air mass. Directional shear may
favor a few cells capable of severe hail, including near the
Colorado Springs area. Addition cells or clusters may spread
southeastward across western NE and northwest KS, with damaging
gusts possible.
A more substantial severe risk may develop into south-central KS and
perhaps far northern OK late in the day. Here, locally larger SRH
will exist north of a weak surface low. Instability will be large as
temperatures warm into the 90s F and dewpoints remain in the upper
60s F. Veering wind with height and effective shear near 40 kt
suggest a few supercells initially, with large hail and locally
damaging wind gusts. A brief tornado cannot be ruled out. During the
evening, CAMs suggest an MCS may develop, dropping southeastward
across southern KS, including the Wichita area, and into northern
OK. Damaging wind gusts would be the main concern.
...Parts of Central MO...
CAM signals are mixed with timing of convective systems near the
surface trough. However, strong instability will be present across
the entire region. Depending on later model output, the Slight Risk
may need to be extended farther into MO/I-70 corridor as
predictability increases.
..Jewell.. 07/03/2026
Read more
SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0227 PM CDT Fri Jul 03 2026
Valid 051200Z - 061200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE
MID ATLANTIC REGION...
...SUMMARY...
Developing thunderstorm clusters may pose a risk for damaging wind
gusts across parts of the Mid Atlantic and parts of the southern
Great Plains Sunday afternoon and evening. Isolated severe storms
may affect northern North Dakota late.
...Mid Atlantic States...
Although wind fields aloft will weaken compared to the previous day
as the upper trough lifts out of the Northeast, upper 60s to low 70s
F dewpoints will remain over much of the region. Afternoon storms
are likely to develop from PA southward across the Appalachians, and
these will move eastward into a zone of strong heating/steep
low-level lapse rates into MD/VA. Gusty winds are likely, some
damaging through the evening.
...Northeast NM into northwest TX...
East to southeast surface winds will prevail across the southern
Plains on Sunday, which will aid westward moisture advection into
NM. Shear will be weak, but southeastward-propagating clusters of
storms appear likely late in the day and into the night as storms
move into TX. Sporadic severe gusts may occur.
...Northern ND...
A substantial upper trough will move into the Canadian Prairies late
on Sunday, with the base of this trough sweeping across MT and ND
overnight. A cold front will develop into far eastern MT and western
ND late in the day, proceeding toward the Red River by Monday
morning. Forecast soundings show moderate instability developing,
with veering winds with height and hodographs favorable for
slow-moving supercells. Aiding any such development into the night
will be a nocturnal low-level jet. Isolated large hail appears most
likely.
..Jewell.. 07/03/2026
Read more
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0229 PM CDT Fri Jul 03 2026
Valid 041200Z - 051200Z
...Colorado...
An IsoDryT area was added for portions of central Colorado as
moisture advects westward into the Colorado Rockies. Much of the
moisture will not make it past the Front Range, but deep terrain
circulations and forecast guidance consensus of a weak shortwave
trough/vort max rotating over the area near peak heating should be
enough for isolated thunderstorms. Thunderstorm probabilities are
10-20%, but with any thunderstorm that forms, it will be dry and
over near to record dry fuels. Additionally, any active large fires
in the vicinity of the IsoDryT area will have increased
probabilities of deep pyroconvection.
...Inland Northwest...
Gusty Cascade Gap winds will spread out onto portions of the
Columbia Basin tomorrow. Westerly sustained winds of 10-20 mph with
gusts of 20-30 mph amid minimum RH of 12-25% are forecast tomorrow
across portions of the Inland Northwest. Locally elevated conditions
may develop farther south in portions of central/eastern Oregon as
well.
..Nauslar.. 07/03/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0107 AM CDT Fri Jul 03 2026/
...Synopsis...
Fire weather concerns will remain limited for Saturday compared to
previous days. A building upper-level ridge across the
Southwest/Four Corners will maintain very dry conditions across UT
and CO with another day of single-digit RH minimums likely. However,
this will also act to limit the intensity of the lee cyclone over
the southern/central High Plains and displace it further east across
KS compared to previous days. Consequently, the mass response over
the Four Corners will be weaker, limiting the potential for
sustained elevated/critical wind speeds. While localized elevated
conditions are possible across the greater Four Corners region
(particularly across NM), such conditions will likely be fairly
transient and confined to local terrain features.
...Dry Thunderstorms...
An influx of Pacific moisture is expected across AZ and western NM
through the day Saturday. Steep lapse rates will likely accompany
the leading edge of the returning moisture and may support pockets
of sufficient buoyancy for transient thunderstorms across far
eastern AZ and into western/central NM. While this potential is
noted, confidence is very limited owing to considerable spread among
recent guidance regarding thunderstorm development and coverage.
However, if convection can develop some dry-lightning threat will
likely materialize given antecedent dry boundary-layer conditions.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
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SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0456 PM CDT Fri Jul 03 2026
Valid 051200Z - 111200Z
Upper-level heights build over the southern/central Intermountain
West this weekend into early next week as an upper high begins to
develop over the Southwest. A weak upper low will track
north-northeast over California into the northern Rockies Day
3/Sunday - Day 4/Monday. Moisture will move northward this weekend
through early next week as south-southwest flow develops over much
of the West. An upper-level trough is forecast to move into the
Northwest around mid-next week, with weak ridging/higher heights
remaining across the southern US.
As moisture increases into the greater Four Corners region,
thunderstorm chances will increase. Given that low-levels will
remain dry west of the Divide, and that PWAT values are likely to
remain below 0.9" on the northern portions of this moisture plume,
isolated to scattered mixed wet/dry thunderstorms are likely to
develop. Forecast guidance currently favor portions of northern
Arizona, central/eastern Utah, and western Colorado for drier
thunderstorm development early next week. These outlook areas also
have very to record dry fuels. The 10% DryT areas may shift and
potentially expand, including into eastern Nevada, as forecast
guidance coalesces. While mixed wet/dry thunderstorms are likely
across portions of New Mexico, central Colorado, and southeast
Arizona, consecutive days of thunderstorm development will likely
reduce the risk of new ignitions.
Isolated to scattered mixed wet/dry thunderstorms are possible
across portions of northern California into southeast Oregon on Day
3/Sunday into Day 4/Monday. This may include nocturnal thunderstorms
during Day 3/Sunday night. PSA Fire Danger charts indicate ERCs are
below average for this time of year and below the 90th percentile.
Given the uncertainty of thunderstorm development and fuel
receptiveness, no DryT probabilities were included.
As upper-level troughing moves into the Northwest next week, gusty
Cascade Gap winds are likely to develop with dry/breezy conditions
spilling into the Columbia Basin. However, the timing and magnitude
of these conditions remain uncertain, and this will continued to be
monitored in subsequent outlooks.
..Nauslar.. 07/03/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
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