RSS Mesoscale Discussions from Storm Prediction Center
No watches are valid as of Sun Mar 1 17:42:01 UTC 2026.
MD 0124 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR SOUTH FLORIDA
Mesoscale Discussion 0124
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1139 AM CST Sun Mar 01 2026
Areas affected...South Florida
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 011739Z - 011945Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent
SUMMARY...Scattered storms are possible primarily near and along the
South Florida coast this afternoon. Isolated damaging winds and
marginally severe hail are the expected hazards. A watch is not
expected.
DISCUSSION...Convection continues to increase near the South Florida
coast this afternoon as temperature are reaching the upper 70s to
low 80s F. Localized convergence along with modest mid-level ascent
appears to be the largest contributors to this activity. With time,
a more well-developed sea breeze will likely move inland and promote
additional development. Around 1500 J/kg MLCAPE and 30-35 kts of
effective shear will allow a few storms to organize and potentially
produce isolated damaging winds and marginally severe hail.
Convection over the Gulf Stream has produce outflow that is
approaching the eastern Peninsula coast. This could impact the
duration of the most intense activity, though a brief uptick in wind
gust potential is also possible as this boundary interacts with
ongoing storms.
..Wendt/Smith.. 03/01/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...MFL...KEY...
LAT...LON 25208029 25198059 25238072 25538078 26528043 26748020
26608009 25818010 25208029
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN
Read more
SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1025 AM CST Sun Mar 01 2026
Valid 011630Z - 021200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
SOUTH FLORIDA AND OKLAHOMA...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe thunderstorms yielding a risk for large hail and
localized severe gusts may occur this afternoon and evening across
parts of south Florida and Oklahoma.
...Oklahoma...
A mid-level disturbance near the CO-KS border this morning will
quickly move east to the Ozarks by mid evening. Glancing
large-scale ascent associated with this feature and associated
low-level warm/moist advection will contribute to isolated to
scattered thunderstorms later this afternoon and into the evening
from near the Red River into the Ozarks. A stalled cold front
paralleling the I-44 corridor will likely serve as a focus for
thunderstorm development as an axis of weak buoyancy develops within
a narrow moist plume (50s deg F surface dewpoints) extending from
north TX into central OK. Forecast soundings show elongated
hodographs and upwards of 1000 J/kg MUCAPE, supporting an
environment potentially capable of a couple stronger storms that
could yield a risk for hail/wind during the 22-04z period.
...South Florida...
A weak mid-level trough over the eastern Gulf will move
east-southeastward across the FL Peninsula by early evening.
Accompanying weak ascent with this upper feature and differential
heating near a frontolytic boundary will support isolated
to widely scattered thunderstorms developing this afternoon across
parts of south FL. Around 1000 J/kg of MLCAPE is probable by early
to mid afternoon. Weak flow in the surface-3km layer will limit
overall hodograph length beneath 50-kt westerly flow at 300 mb. A
couple of the stronger thunderstorms may pose a risk for marginally
severe hail and perhaps gusts approaching 60 mph.
..Smith/Wendt.. 03/01/2026
Read more
SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1112 AM CST Sun Mar 01 2026
Valid 021200Z - 031200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms will be possible on Monday and Monday night across
parts of the central U.S., in south Florida, and from the
Intermountain West into the central High Plains.
...Synopsis...
An upper low recently observed off the northern CA coast will
continue to track eastward across the northern Great Basin and into
the central High Plains through Monday night. Broad-scale ascent
combined with cool temperatures aloft and a modest influx of
mid-level moisture should support isolated thunderstorms from NV
into the western Plains. Buoyancy will be maximized at peak heating
across western to central WY, and with 30-40 knot mid-level flow in
place, a few updrafts may be strong enough to support small hail.
However, confidence in the overall severe risk is low owing to
generally meager buoyancy profiles (characterized by lifted indices
around -1 to -2 C) depicted in most morning guidance. Further east,
diminishing thunderstorms may be ongoing at the start of the period
across eastern OK into AR with additional development expected
within a warm advection regime later in the day and overnight across
KS, MO, and IL. Lingering showers and thunderstorms are expected
again across southern FL within an unstable air mass, but limited
ascent and weak winds through much of the CAPE-bearing layer should
limit the potential for organized storms.
..Moore.. 03/01/2026
Read more
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1037 AM CST Sun Mar 01 2026
Valid 011700Z - 021200Z
...Eastern New Mexico and West Texas...
A subtle mid-level wave and associated enhanced mid-level flow will
advance eastward across the Southern Rockies into the Southern
Plains today. In response, weak surface lee troughing will develop
across the southern High Plains through this afternoon. A shallow
inversion in place this morning across eastern NM will quickly mix
out, with a dry and well-mixed boundary layer emerging by this
afternoon. This will support dry and breezy conditions within the
broader westerly, downslope favorable flow over east-central NM
where west winds approaching 20 mph at times and relative humidity
falling to as low as 15% will align with dry fuels. Elevated
highlights were introduced into east-central NM, with locally
elevated fire weather concerns extending southward into far west TX
in lee of the Guadalupe and Davis Mountains.
..Williams.. 03/01/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0203 AM CST Sun Mar 01 2026/
...Synopsis...
Shortwave ridging building over the Southwest will weaken flow aloft
over the southern Rockies and High Plains through today. At the same
time, a surface cold front will continue to move south and stall
across the southern Plains States. Ahead of this front, a few hours
of dry and breezy downslope winds could support localized
fire-weather concerns over parts of eastern NM and West TX.
Otherwise, cooler temperatures and precipitation should limit
fire-weather potential.
...Eastern NM and west TX...
Sub-tropical ridging is forecast to build steadily over the
Southwest today, with westerly winds aloft remaining modest over
parts of the southern Rockies and High Plains. Very warm
temperatures, and surface high pressure to the west will favor some
locally breezy winds of 15-20 mph across parts of eastern NM into
far west TX ahead of the sagging cold front. Warm temperatures and
the dry downslope flow will support RH of 15-20% during the
afternoon. While the modest surface winds will preclude broader
fire-weather concerns, locally breezy winds amid dry fuels could
support some brief, locally elevated fire-weather conditions this
afternoon.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
|
