RSS Mesoscale Discussions from Storm Prediction Center
No watches are valid as of Sun Jan 18 07:14:02 UTC 2026.
No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Sun Jan 18 07:14:02 UTC 2026.
SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1158 PM CST Sat Jan 17 2026
Valid 181200Z - 191200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not forecast across the U.S. today or
tonight.
...DISCUSSION...
A large-scale upper-level trough will move across the east-central
U.S. today, as southwest mid-level flow remains in place over the
eastern U.S. At the surface, a large area of high pressure will
settle in over the western and central Gulf Coast states, as a front
moves southward across the Florida Peninsula. Moisture advection
will take place ahead of the front in south Florida, where surface
dewpoints will be in the mid to upper 60s F. In the early to mid
afternoon, thunderstorm development will be possible along and near
the front. Deep-layer and instability are expected to be
insufficient for a severe threat. Elsewhere across the continental
U.S., thunderstorms are not forecast today or tonight.
..Broyles/Halbert.. 01/18/2026
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SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1129 PM CST Sat Jan 17 2026
Valid 191200Z - 201200Z
...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are not expected on Monday.
...Synopsis...
Broad upper troughing and expansive surface high pressure will
envelop much of the CONUS on Monday. Continental low-level
trajectories and cold temperatures will result in a dry and stable
boundary layer, precluding thunderstorm potential.
..Leitman.. 01/18/2026
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SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0112 AM CST Sun Jan 18 2026
Valid 201200Z - 211200Z
...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are not expected on Tuesday.
...Synopsis...
A shortwave embedded within broader-scale upper troughing will move
southeast across the Rockies into the Plains on Tuesday. As this
occurs, lee cyclogenesis is expected over the central High Plains.
This low will develop south/southeast into TX overnight and ensuing
low-level south/southeasterly winds will transport modest Gulf
moisture northward into portions of south TX late in the period.
Forecast soundings suggest moisture will be relatively shallow and
warmer midlevel temperatures will limit instability. While some warm
advection showers could occur over TX Tuesday night into early
Wednesday ahead of an southeastward advancing cold front,
thunderstorm potential appears low.
..Leitman.. 01/18/2026
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SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1128 PM CST Sat Jan 17 2026
Valid 181200Z - 191200Z
...Synopsis...
Dry and breezy conditions with winds out of the west-southwest owing
to a surface high pressure along the Gulf Coast will support
Elevated fire-weather conditions this afternoon across portions of
Central Texas into southern Oklahoma.
...Central Texas into Southern Oklahoma...
Downslope west-southwesterly surface winds across western and
central Texas will reach 15-20 MPH in a dry post-frontal airmass
characterized by relative humidity of 10-20%. With fuels
sufficiently receptive to wildfire ignition and spread, Elevated
fire-weather concerns are forecast. Locally Critical conditions may
occur where winds exceed 20 MPH for short periods of time, though
00Z HREF guidance suggests low confidence in 3+ hours sustained
winds of 20 MPH which would preclude additional highlights.
..Halbert.. 01/18/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
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SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1137 PM CST Sat Jan 17 2026
Valid 191200Z - 201200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
...Synopsis...
With much of the U.S. east of the Rockies dominated by cooler
temperatures and surface high pressure on Monday, no fire-weather
concerns are forecast at this time.
..Halbert.. 01/18/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
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