RSS Mesoscale Discussions from Storm Prediction Center
WW 451 SEVERE TSTM IA IL IN LM 032340Z - 040700Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 451
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
640 PM CDT Fri Jul 3 2026
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of
Eastern Iowa
Northern Illinois
Northwest Indiana
Lake Michigan
* Effective this Friday night and Saturday morning from 640 PM
until 200 AM CDT.
* Primary threats include...
Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible
Isolated large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible
A tornado or two possible
SUMMARY...A cluster of thunderstorms should pose a threat for mainly
scattered severe/damaging winds as it tracks east-southeastward this
evening into early Saturday morning. Peak gusts may reach up to
60-70 mph. Isolated hail and perhaps a brief tornado or two may also
occur with any cells that can move along/near a boundary.
The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 55
statute miles north and south of a line from 40 miles west northwest
of Moline IL to Valparaiso IN. For a complete depiction of the watch
see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU1).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.
&&
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 446...WW 447...WW
448...WW 449...WW 450...
AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A
few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector
29030.
...Gleason
Read more
WW 0452 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 452
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SSW HLC
TO 40 E HLC TO 40 S EAR.
..BROYLES..07/04/26
ATTN...WFO...TOP...DDC...GID...ICT...
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 452
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
KSC027-029-051-089-105-117-123-131-141-143-149-157-161-167-183-
195-201-040340-
KS
. KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CLAY CLOUD ELLIS
JEWELL LINCOLN MARSHALL
MITCHELL NEMAHA OSBORNE
OTTAWA POTTAWATOMIE REPUBLIC
RILEY RUSSELL SMITH
TREGO WASHINGTON
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
Read more
WW 0451 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 451
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NW BRL TO
35 W MMO TO 50 NE MMO TO 35 NW BEH.
..MOORE..07/04/26
ATTN...WFO...DVN...LOT...ILX...
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 451
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ILC031-053-063-075-091-093-099-105-123-155-175-197-040440-
IL
. ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
COOK FORD GRUNDY
IROQUOIS KANKAKEE KENDALL
LA SALLE LIVINGSTON MARSHALL
PUTNAM STARK WILL
INC007-073-089-111-127-040440-
IN
. INDIANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BENTON JASPER LAKE
NEWTON PORTER
LMZ741-742-743-744-745-779-040440-
CW
. ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE
Read more
WW 0450 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 450
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 ESE SNY
TO 30 SSW MHN TO 30 ENE CDR.
..BROYLES..07/04/26
ATTN...WFO...LBF...
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 450
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
NEC009-017-031-041-091-101-103-111-113-115-117-149-171-040340-
NE
. NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BLAINE BROWN CHERRY
CUSTER HOOKER KEITH
KEYA PAHA LINCOLN LOGAN
LOUP MCPHERSON ROCK
THOMAS
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
Read more
WW 0449 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 449
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 WNW BIE
TO 20 SSW LNK TO 25 NNE LNK TO 15 WNW OMA TO 40 SE DNS.
..BROYLES..07/04/26
ATTN...WFO...OAX...GID...
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 449
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
IAC071-129-137-145-155-040440-
IA
. IOWA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
FREMONT MILLS MONTGOMERY
PAGE POTTAWATTAMIE
NEC025-055-067-095-097-109-127-131-133-147-153-040440-
NE
. NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CASS DOUGLAS GAGE
JEFFERSON JOHNSON LANCASTER
NEMAHA OTOE PAWNEE
RICHARDSON SARPY
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
Read more
WW 0448 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 448
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 WNW DOV
TO 15 WNW PHL TO 10 SSW EWR TO 15 NW ISP.
..MOORE..07/04/26
ATTN...WFO...PHI...LWX...OKX...BGM...ALY...CTP...PBZ...
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 448
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
DEC003-040140-
DE
. DELAWARE COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
NEW CASTLE
NJC005-007-015-021-025-029-033-040140-
NJ
. NEW JERSEY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BURLINGTON CAMDEN GLOUCESTER
MERCER MONMOUTH OCEAN
SALEM
NYC059-040140-
NY
. NEW YORK COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
NASSAU
Read more
WW 0447 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 447
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SW TOL TO
30 SE DTW TO 30 SE BAX.
..MOORE..07/03/26
ATTN...WFO...IWX...GRR...DTX...
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 447
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
MIC147-040040-
MI
. MICHIGAN COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ST. CLAIR
LCZ422-040040-
CW
. ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE
ST. CLAIR RIVER
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
Read more
WW 0446 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 446
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 NW CDR TO
35 SSW RAP TO 10 NNW PHP TO 10 SE PIR.
..BROYLES..07/04/26
ATTN...WFO...UNR...ABR...
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 446
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
SDC007-047-071-075-095-102-121-123-040240-
SD
. SOUTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BENNETT FALL RIVER JACKSON
JONES MELLETTE OGLALA LAKOTA
TODD TRIPP
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
Read more
WW 0445 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 445
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 WSW MMO
TO 25 WSW BEH.
..LEITMAN..07/03/26
ATTN...WFO...LOT...MKX...
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 445
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ILC053-063-075-091-093-099-105-197-032140-
IL
. ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
FORD GRUNDY IROQUOIS
KANKAKEE KENDALL LA SALLE
LIVINGSTON WILL
INC007-073-089-111-127-032140-
IN
. INDIANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BENTON JASPER LAKE
NEWTON PORTER
LMZ645-743-744-745-032140-
CW
. ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE
Read more
No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Sat Jul 4 04:30:12 UTC 2026.
SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0750 PM CDT Fri Jul 03 2026
Valid 040100Z - 041200Z
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF
SOUTHEASTERN NEBRASKA INTO WESTERN IOWA...
...SUMMARY...
Scattered damaging gusts will continue across portions of the Mid
Atlantic and the central/northern Plains. More isolated to scattered
severe storms will also continue across portions of the High Plains
to the northern Rockies.
...Discussion...
Several clusters of widely scattered thunderstorms in many different
regimes are ongoing across portions of the central and northern
Plains into the Midwest and across the Mid-Atlantic. The greatest
threat through the remainder of the evening will be for damaging
wind, with a few instances of large hail and perhaps a tornado from
the Plains to the Midwest.
Across the central/northern Plains, activity is mainly tied to lee
troughing and broad ascent from the mid-level shortwave trough. A
few embedded supercells will pose potential for large hail through
the evening but the main threat is shifting to become damaging wind,
with several clusters attempting to grow upscale. The more focused
corridor of severe wind threat through the evening will likely
extend from southeastern Nebraska into northern Kansas, where a more
robust line has developed amid a strongly unstable air mass. Deep
layer shear decreases with southward extent into Kansas, however,
storms may be driven by cold pool dynamics south and eastward
through the evening.
Across portions of southern South Dakota, western Nebraska, and
eastern Colorado, a few more discrete supercell clusters are
ongoing. This region will be where the greatest short term risk will
be for large to very large hail, particularly across western
Nebraska into southwestern South Dakota.
Across portions of the Midwest into the Great Lakes, a cluster of
storms is moving across northern Illinois towards the Chicago Metro.
This line is tracking along a MLCAPE gradient that extends across
northern Illinois into northern Indiana/southern Michigan. Storms
will likely advance eastward along this gradient through the
evening, with potential for damaging winds.
Another robust line is moving eastward through New York City and
northern New Jersey. This has produced a swath of measured severe
wind and continues eastward towards the coast.
..Thornton.. 07/04/2026
Read more
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