RSS Mesoscale Discussions from Storm Prediction Center
No watches are valid as of Thu Feb 5 17:21:02 UTC 2026.
No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Thu Feb 5 17:21:02 UTC 2026.
SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1021 AM CST Thu Feb 05 2026
Valid 051630Z - 061200Z
...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are not forecast across the contiguous United States
through tonight.
...Synopsis...
Recent satellite imagery reveals a considerably amplified upper
pattern featuring an eastern CONUS upper trough and a western CONUS
Rex Block anchored by expansive ridging from Mexico into British
Columbia. Within the eastern CONUS troughing, a shortwave trough
currently extends from the central Appalachians southwestward into
the north-central Gulf. Surface low associated with this shortwave
is currently off the South Carolina coast, with an attendant cold
front extending back southwestward across south Florida. This
surface low is forecast to eject northeastward into more of the
western Atlantic as its parent shortwave progresses eastward and the
cold front pushes through the remainder of south Florida. Modest
low-level moisture precedes this front across south Florida, but
tempered heating and warm temperatures aloft will mitigate any
buoyancy and no thunderstorms are anticipated. Cool and stable
conditions will preclude thunderstorms elsewhere across the CONUS.
..Mosier/Lyons.. 02/05/2026
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SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1052 AM CST Thu Feb 05 2026
Valid 061200Z - 071200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Friday or Friday night.
...Southern CA...
Within the base of a large-scale trough near coastal CA, an embedded
mid-level low should modestly amplify to the west of northern Baja
CA by early Saturday. Cool mid-level temperatures (around -22 C at
500 mb) in conjunction with marginal boundary-layer moisture should
yield scant buoyancy at peak heating Friday over parts of coastal
southern CA. Weak orographic ascent across the Transverse Ranges
vicinity might support a couple thunderstorms during the late
afternoon to early evening. Overall thunder probabilities appear to
be around 10 percent.
..Grams.. 02/05/2026
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SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1054 AM CST Thu Feb 05 2026
Valid 051700Z - 061200Z
...Montana High Plains...
Stronger northwest flow aloft along with surface troughing across
the northern High Plains will continue to support elevated
west-northwest winds of 10-15 mph (locally 20-25 mph in favored
terrain gaps) across the northern High Plains of MT. Downslope
drying in the lee of the Northern Rockies will promote afternoon
relative humidity in the 15-20% range across the area, with current
relative humidity observations already nearing 20%. Several days of
above normal temperatures and persistent dry conditions have allowed
a more receptive fuelscape to develop. Elevated highlights were
added to the snow-free lower elevation areas of central MT.
..Williams.. 02/05/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1249 AM CST Thu Feb 05 2026/
...Synopsis...
A highly amplified upper-level pattern will be in place today.
Ridging will dominate the West with troughing in the East. While
fire weather concerns will generally be low, some modestly dry and
breezy conditions are possible within a weak downslope flow regime.
These conditions will occur within the lee of the northern Rockies
extending into portions of the central High Plains. There are some
drying fuels in these areas that could allow for localized elevated
fire weather. RH will range from 15-25% with winds around 15 mph
(locally greater).
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
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