RSS Mesoscale Discussions from Storm Prediction Center
No watches are valid as of Sat Apr 11 01:16:02 UTC 2026.
No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Sat Apr 11 01:16:02 UTC 2026.
SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0758 PM CDT Fri Apr 10 2026
Valid 110100Z - 111200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated to scattered thunderstorms remain possible during the late
evening hours across parts of the southern Plains and Great Basin;
however, the overall severe risk appears limited.
...Southern Plains...
Latest MRMS imagery depicts steady weakening of convection across
northeast NM and across northern OK with the onset of nocturnal
cooling and expanding convective outflows. While a couple of
stronger storms are noted across far eastern NM and southwest TX,
weak deep-layer wind shear and diminishing buoyancy should favor a
weakening trend heading into the late evening hours.
Additional elevated thunderstorms are anticipated well north of the
stalled surface boundary along the OK/KS border with recent CAM
guidance suggesting multi-cell clusters developing across portions
of central to northeast KS after 03 UTC. The recent 00z DDC RAOB
likely sampled the environment this convection will develop in, and
hints that at least a small hail threat may materialize with
initially discrete cells prior to upscale growth within the first
couple of hours after initiation.
...Great Basin...
Similar to the southern Plains, convective trends have largely shown
signs of weakening over the past hour across central to northern NV
where surface temperatures are quickly cooling into the 60s. The
combination of rain-cooled air/outflows and the onset of nocturnal
cooling should further reduce any remaining mixed-layer buoyancy
(which was already fairly marginal per regional 00z RAOBs).
Consequently, the thermodynamic environment no longer appears
supportive of intense convection, though a strong storm or two may
persist for the next hour as the boundary layer continues to
stabilize.
..Moore.. 04/11/2026
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SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0511 PM CDT Fri Apr 10 2026
Valid 121200Z - 181200Z
...Synopsis...
On Day 3/Sunday, an upper-level low is forecast to move onshore in
northern California as an upper-level ridge strengthens over the
central and eastern CONUS. A lee-surface low ejects off the Rockies
on Day 4/Monday, slowly shifting across the Midwest and Great Lakes
region by Day 6/Wednesday. This scenario is likely to result in
multiple days of precipitation across the West and from Texas
through the Great Lakes, which would temporarily dampen fire weather
threats. Continued upper-level ridging through Day 5/Tuesday across
the eastern CONUS will promote above normal temperatures and drying
conditions for much of the region, though increased chances of
precipitation may return towards the end of next week as the upper
trough shifts east.
...Ohio River Valley - Day 3/Sunday...
Increasing potential for 10-15 mph southerly winds and 30-40 percent
RH will present fire weather concerns across northeastern AR into
portions of the Ohio River Valley. Given recently observed
widespread ERCs above the 90th percentile and low fine fuel
moisture, 40 percent probabilities for Critical fire weather have
been maintained. The expanse of the drawn area may be adjusted in
future outlooks as guidance evolves the northward extent of gulf
moisture advection.
...Central/Southern Plains and Southwest - Day 3/Sunday through Day
4/Monday...
Fire weather conditions return on Day 3/Sunday as an amplified upper
trough moves into the West and an associated shortwave traverses the
High Plains. Dry southwesterly flow and strong winds will overlap
portions of the Southwest that have not seen recent appreciable
rainfall, thus 40 percent probabilities of Critical fire weather
conditions have been introduced to the region. Wedged between a
surface low to the north and lee surface troughing to the south,
strong westerly winds and low RH atop recently receptive fuels will
promote fire weather concerns across the upper central Plains.
Farther south in CO, the foothills and plains east of the Rockies
will experience a mix of downslope and dry return flow. Strong
west-southwesterly winds and critically low RH support fire weather
conditions, and will likely precondition finer fuels for a continued
fire weather threat over the next few days. 40 percent probabilities
of Critical fire weather have been introduced to account for this
threat.
Beneath the large upper trough, tight surface pressure gradients Day
4/Monday will further enhance dry and windy conditions behind the
dryline in the central/southern High Plains. Despite precipitation
forecast earlier in the forecast period across eastern NM and the TX
Panhandle, accelerated drying on Day 3/Sunday will likely
precondition the fire environment by decreasing fine fuel moisture,
escalating broader fire weather concerns. Recent lightning across
portions of these areas may see the emergence of holdovers and
growth on existing fires given expected dry/windy conditions. 40
percent probabilities of Critical fire weather have been maintained
to account for these concerns. A smaller area of 70 percent
probabilities for Critical fire weather conditions was introduced on
Day 4/Monday for southeastern CO to account for an overlap of
stronger winds and lower RH.
...Southern Plains and portions of the Southwest - Day 5/Tuesday...
As the large scale trough shifts east and lee cyclogenesis occurs
east of the Rockies, gusty surface winds will continue over a dry
airmass in the southern Plains and parts of the Southwest. Given
multiple days of fire weather conditions over the area, 40 percent
Critical probabilities have been introduced.
..Elizalde-Garcia/Nauslar.. 04/10/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
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