RSS Mesoscale Discussions from Storm Prediction Center
No watches are valid as of Thu Apr 16 16:07:01 UTC 2026.
No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Thu Apr 16 16:07:01 UTC 2026.
SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0734 AM CDT Thu Apr 16 2026
Valid 161300Z - 171200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR NEW YORK INTO
SOUTHERN VERMONT AND OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF ARKANSAS...
...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible this afternoon over New
York into southern Vermont with damaging gusts and perhaps a tornado
or two the primary threats. Large to very large hail is possible
with stronger storms over the northern half of Arkansas.
...Northeast southward into the central Appalachians and Cumberland
Plateau...
Water-vapor imagery this morning shows an upper trough over the
mid/upper MS Valley moving east towards the Northeast. A belt of
strong west-southwesterly 500-mb flow (50-65 kt) will overspread
much of the Northeast today in conjunction with the
eastward-migrating shortwave trough. Visible-satellite imagery
shows scattered to broken cloud cover to the south of a west-east
oriented frontal zone extending east from a surface low analyzed
over Lake Huron. Heating of an adequately moist boundary layer
(surface dewpoints in the 56-62 deg F range) will result in weak to
locally moderate buoyancy by midday into the mid afternoon (500-1250
J/kg MLCAPE). Large-scale ascent associated with the approaching
disturbance and convergence in the vicinity of the frontal zone will
lead to scattered storm development this afternoon. Ample mid to
high-level flow will favor storm organization, including the
possibility for a few supercells and an organized band of storms. A
risk for large hail and a tornado could accompany the more intense
cells, whereas the wind risk will tend to focus with linear
structures that evolve. An isolated threat for wind damage and
perhaps hail will extend southward into PA/WV and the Cumberland
Plateau, where a few stronger storms may yield those hazards.
...Mid South...
Satellite imagery shows the trailing portion of the upper shortwave
trough over the western Great Lakes is moving east across OK this
morning. This upper feature and associated mid-level cold pocket
(-16 to -18 deg C at 500 mb) will move across the MO Ozarks and AR
this afternoon. A reservoir of lower 60s deg F surface dewpoints
and strong heating in wake of early day showers and isolated
thunderstorms will favor robust CAPE profiles and elongated mid to
upper portions of the hodograph. Latest guidance shows several
cells developing within a weakly capped airmass by mid afternoon.
The stronger storms will likely become supercells yielding a risk
for large to very large hail (1 to 3 inches in diameter). Modest
low-level flow will tend to limit low-level mesocyclone intensity
and the lessen the overall tornado risk. A couple of smaller
clusters may evolve during the early evening with an isolated wind
threat potentially ensuing before this activity weakens by mid
evening.
...Edwards Plateau into the TX Big Country and western north TX...
Moderate to strong potential instability is forecast to develop
beneath steep lapse rates, along and east of a dryline. Although
neutral to weak shortwave ridging is expected today, some of the
latest model guidance shows isolated to widely scattered storm
development by late afternoon on the northwestern rim of richer
low-level moisture arcing from the Edwards Plateau into western
north TX. Strong heating will likely erode appreciable remaining
convective inhibition by 20-22 UTC. Strong west-southwesterly
100-kt 200-mb flow will elongate hodographs amidst a moderately
buoyant airmass. Widely spaced/isolated supercells will mainly
yield a large hail threat late this afternoon into the early
evening.
..Smith/Dean.. 04/16/2026
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SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1104 AM CDT Thu Apr 16 2026
Valid 161700Z - 171200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...
...Central and northern High Plains...
A surface low will deepen in the northern and central Plains ahead
of an approaching upper-level trough currently traversing the
Northern Rockies. Increasing southwesterly flow aloft and
consolidating surface pressure gradient will aid in developing gusty
south to southwest winds accompanied by a dry, well-mixed boundary
later across much of the central and northern Plains this afternoon.
A corridor of stronger southerly winds is expected across portions
of eastern SD and southwestern MN although RH reductions should be
limited to the 20-25% range this afternoon. Nonetheless, receptive
fuels coupled with the increasing southerly winds in place could
support wildfire spread, necessitating a northeastward extension of
Elevated Highlights into this region.
...Southern Plains...
Lee surface troughing extends southward from the evolving surface
low in the Northern Plains into the central and southern High
Plains. A considerably drier boundary layer and supportive downslope
trajectories will allow for Critical fire weather conditions across
portions of eastern CO, northeastern NM and OK/TX Panhandles. Poor
relative humidity recoveries were observed across portions of the
southern High Plains, with current RH at 10% or below across
southeastern NM and northwest TX. Southwest winds of 15-25 mph amid
the presence of a 90F+ low-level thermal ridge and RH dropping into
the single digits during peak heating this afternoon, will support
critical fire weather conditions. Critical and corresponding
Elevated Highlights were nudged southward into portions of Northwest
TX to account for current surface observation trends and near term
model guidance.
The forecast remains on track for an elevated fire weather threat
across portions of the Central Appalachians and Mid Atlantic with no
changes to current highlights. Please see previous discussion for
additional details.
..Williams.. 04/16/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0204 AM CDT Thu Apr 16 2026/
...Synopsis...
An upper-level trough will deepen as it moves into the southern
Great Basin/Four Corners today and tonight. As the trough
intensifies, an initially modest subtropical jet will strengthen
across northern Mexico into the southern Plains. At the surface, a
strong low pressure system will deepen across SD as an associated
cold front moves southward into the central Plains. Another
shortwave trough will move over the eastern US bolstering low-level
winds across parts of the Appalachians and Mid Atlantic.
...Central and Southern High Plains...
As upper forcing from the approaching trough spreads over the
Rockies into the plains, the surface low will deepen and move
southeastward with the cold front. This should encourage a broad
area of strong west/southwesterly downslope winds from eastern WY
and SD, into parts of the central Plains. Sustained southwesterly
winds of 15-25 mph (gusts up to 30 mph) amid 10-15 percent RH are
expected atop very dry and receptive fuels, supporting critical fire
weather concerns. Fire-weather conditions will gradually end
overnight from north to south as the front moves south with the
surface low.
Farther south across OK/TX and NM, a surface pressure trough will
encourage gusty westerly low-level flow. Sustained winds of 15-25
mph are likely as the surface low gradually moves southward ahead of
the cold front. Low RH is also expected (10-15%) owing to downslope
trajectories and warm afternoon temperatures. While some areas have
seen rainfall in the past few days, several days of poor humidity
recoveries and gusty winds have allowed for significant drying and a
broad area of critical fuels.
...Central Appalachians and Mid Atlantic...
Strengthening southwesterly flow at the base of the shortwave tough
will encourage strengthening of a lee trough. This will aid gusty
downslope winds of 10-15 mph through the afternoon. Afternoon RH
values will drop to 25-30%. With little recent rainfall and very dry
fuels, several hours of elevated fire-weather conditions appear
likely. More localized fire-weather conditions could extend into
southern and central PA. However, here increased RH and weaker winds
amid areas of recent rainfall should limit broader concerns.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
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