RSS Mesoscale Discussions from Storm Prediction Center
No watches are valid as of Sun May 24 12:02:02 UTC 2026.
No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Sun May 24 12:02:02 UTC 2026.
SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0255 AM CDT Sun May 24 2026
Valid 261200Z - 271200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
WESTERN TEXAS...
...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe storms will be possible across western Texas into
southeastern New Mexico Tuesday afternoon. Across this region,
possible hazards will include large to very large hail, severe
gusts, and perhaps a tornado.
...Synopsis...
An upper low will deepen across the Pacific Northwest on D3/Tuesday.
The subtropical jet will increase across Baja California into
Mexico, with modest westerly flow aloft extending across western
Texas. Scattered severe storms will be possible across portions of
western Texas and central Montana.
...Western Texas into southeastern New Mexico...
Modest westerly flow aloft will extend into western Texas Tuesday
afternoon. Easterly upslope flow across the high terrain of the
Davis Mountains and Stockton/Edwards Plateau and subtle mid-level
forcing for ascent will aid in widely scattered thunderstorm
activity by the afternoon. Daytime heating will allow for
temperatures to climb into the mid to upper 80s in combination with
mid 50s to 60s dew points yielding an axis of moderate to strong
instability from just east of Big Bend and north to the southern
Permian Basin. In addition, a plume of steep low to mid-level lapse
rates will overspread the region by the afternoon. Forecast
soundings suggest around 40 kts of 0-6 km shear, which will support
supercells capable of large to very large hail and severe gusts.
Initially, hodographs will be generally straight but increasing
southeasterly flow by the evening may support potential for
increasing low-level shear and perhaps a tornado.
...Montana...
Increasing mid-level flow and forcing for ascent will overspread
portions of central Montana Tuesday afternoon, supporting scattered
thunderstorms by the afternoon. Steep low to mid-level lapse rates
and modest instability/shear will support potential for a few
instances of large hail and severe gusts.
..Thornton.. 05/24/2026
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Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0400 AM CDT Sun May 24 2026
Valid 271200Z - 011200Z
...DISCUSSION...
The western US trough will shift southward into the Great Basin on
D4/Wednesday with strengthening westerly flow overspreading the
southwestern US. The axis of the central US ridge will shift
eastward, with heights continuing to rise across portions of the
central/northern Plains. A few stronger storms may be possible
across portions of central/eastern Montana. Overall, confidence is
low in any areas of organized severe potential. Widely scattered
thunderstorm activity will be possible from the Southern/Central
Plains to the southeastern US. Generally weak flow should keep
organized severe potential low. The exception may be across far
western Texas where modest mid-level flow will continue, though
large scale forcing for ascent will decrease from D3/Tuesday.
For the D5/Thursday through D6/Friday period, ensemble guidance
suggests the western low will shift northward again and phase with
the northern jet stream. There is low confidence in chances for
strong to severe storms, pending details on moisture, across the
northern Rockies into the central/northern high Plains as lee
troughing strengthens. Some severe potential may also extend into
the eastern and southeastern US as a cold front shifts southward as
flow enhances in the trough across Quebec from D6/Friday to
D7/Saturday.
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