RSS Mesoscale Discussions from Storm Prediction Center
WW 464 SEVERE TSTM ND 052030Z - 060400Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 464
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
330 PM CDT Sun Jul 5 2026
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of
Western North Dakota
* Effective this Sunday afternoon and evening from 330 PM until
1100 PM CDT.
* Primary threats include...
Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2
inches in diameter possible
Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible
A tornado or two possible
SUMMARY...Thunderstorms are expected to intensify across western
North Dakota this afternoon, with a few severe storms possible.
Large hail and damaging winds are the main concerns, although an
isolated tornado is also possible.
The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 60
statute miles east and west of a line from 65 miles southwest of
Garrison ND to 55 miles north northwest of Minot ND. For a complete
depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update
(WOUS64 KWNS WOU4).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.
&&
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 463...
AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A
few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector
25030.
...Hart
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WW 463 SEVERE TSTM OK TX 051940Z - 060300Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 463
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
240 PM CDT Sun Jul 5 2026
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of
Southern Oklahoma
North Central into West Texas
* Effective this Sunday afternoon and evening from 240 PM until
1000 PM CDT.
* Primary threats include...
Scattered damaging winds likely with isolated significant gusts
to 75 mph possible
Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2
inches in diameter possible
SUMMARY...Thunderstorms will intensify and build southeastward
across the watch area through the afternoon and early evening. A
few severe storms are expected, with damaging winds and large hail
possible.
The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 50
statute miles north and south of a line from 70 miles west of
Plainview TX to 40 miles east southeast of Tyler TX. For a complete
depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update
(WOUS64 KWNS WOU3).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.
&&
AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 65 knots. A
few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector
28025.
...Hart
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WW 0464 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0464 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET
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WW 0463 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0463 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET
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MD 1513 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA
Mesoscale Discussion 1513
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0247 PM CDT Sun Jul 05 2026
Areas affected...portions of northern North Dakota
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely
Valid 051947Z - 052145Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent
SUMMARY...Thunderstorm development is expected by 22z. Isolated
large hail and strong wind gusts will be the main hazards with these
storms through evening. A severe thunderstorm watch will likely be
needed in the next 1-2 hours.
DISCUSSION...Mostly clear skies have allowed for strong heating in
the upper 80 to low 90s across western/central ND. Boundary layer
moisture remains modest across the region, though a plume of 60s
dewpoints has spread north and west across portions of the
discussion area ahead of a surface cold front over the Canadian
Prairies into northeast MT. Steepening midlevel lapse rates are
supporting moderate destabilization, while increasing mid/upper
southwesterly flow is resulting in 30-40 kt effective shear. Cumulus
development is noted across western ND and thunderstorm initiation
is expected in the next couple of hours. Supercell wind profiles are
present across the region, and isolated large hail and strong wind
gusts are expected with this activity. Trends are being monitored
and a severe thunderstorm watch will likely be needed in the next
couple hours.
..Leitman/Hart.. 07/05/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...FGF...BIS...
LAT...LON 49199934 48319995 47460113 47300305 47680331 48300299
49250214 49199934
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN
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SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0257 PM CDT Sun Jul 05 2026
Valid 052000Z - 061200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE
MID ATLANTIC...NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA...AND WESTERN INTO NORTHERN
TEXAS...
...SUMMARY...
Scattered wind damage remains possible with thunderstorms across the
Mid-Atlantic through the remainder of the afternoon and evening.
Large hail and damaging gusts may still occur with thunderstorms in
North Dakota and west/northwest Texas.
...20Z Update...
The previous forecast (see below) remains generally on track. A
mesovortex embedded within a multicellular complex developed a few
hours ago and produced a localized swath of intense winds along the
OH/PA border. A repeat of such activity cannot be ruled out across
western into central PA given the presence of a broad baroclinic
boundary for ongoing storms to traverse. However, confidence in the
development of another mesovortex is too low for an appreciable
modification of severe probabilities at this time.
..Squitieri.. 07/05/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1118 AM CDT Sun Jul 05 2026/
...Mid Atlantic...
Scattered thunderstorms are expected once again today from parts of
eastern OH/WV into PA and the Mid-Atlantic region. The overall
thermodynamic environment has weakened considerably compared to
yesterday, with CAPE, low-level lapse rates, and heating showing
parameters only marginally favorable for damaging winds.
Nevertheless, parts of northern VA into eastern PA and NJ will see
strong heating all day with storms moving in during the early
evening. This will help to maximize low-level conditions favorable
for gusty/damaging winds later today. Therefore will maintain
ongoing SLGT risk area.
...Gulf coast states to Carolinas...
Hot and humid conditions will prevail over much of the southeast
today, with dewpoints in the 70s and pockets of moderate CAPE.
Scattered slow-moving thunderstorms will occur across this region
with locally damaging winds possible in the strongest storms.
...TX...
Full sunshine is noted over TX today, with dewpoints near 70F and
the potential for afternoon MLCAPE exceeding 3000 J/kg. All CAM
solutions indicate thunderstorm development this afternoon along the
remnant outflow from overnight convection, extending from the
southern TX Panhandle into north-central TX. Initial storms may be
supercellular with large hail and damaging winds possible. Storms
are expected to congeal through the evening and sag southward, with
a continued risk of damaging winds.
...Northern ND...
A cold front will move across northeast MT today, with a diffuse
surface dryline along the MT/ND border. Widely scattered
thunderstorms are expected to develop during the late afternoon.
Shear profiles will be sufficient for supercell structures capable
of large hail and damaging winds. A tornado or two cannot be ruled
out.
...MT...
Scattered afternoon high-based thunderstorms are expected to develop
over the mountains of southwest MT and spread east-northeastward.
Inverted-v profiles and moderately strong winds aloft will pose a
risk of damaging wind gusts in a few of these storms.
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SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1230 PM CDT Sun Jul 05 2026
Valid 061200Z - 071200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE MIDWEST...THE MID-ATLANTIC...AND LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...
...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms capable of large hail and severe gusts are
possible across parts of the northern Plains into the Midwest.
Damaging thunderstorm wind gusts are also possible across the
Mid-Atlantic and lower Mississippi Valley.
...Northern Plains into the Midwest...
Within the base of a midlevel trough moving eastward across SK/MB,
modest midlevel height falls and a belt of 40-kt midlevel flow will
overspread the northern Plains and upper Midwest. This will promote
scattered thunderstorms along a southeastward-moving cold front
during the afternoon into the nighttime hours. Rich boundary-layer
moisture beneath steep midlevel lapse rates will yield strong
buoyancy along/ahead of the front. This, combined with around 40 kt
of effective shear, will promote a few organized clusters and
possibly supercell structures capable of large hail and severe wind
gusts.
...Mid-Atlantic...
In the vicinity of a surface trough in the lee of the Blue Ridge,
bands and clusters of storms will overspread a moist and strongly
unstable air mass during the afternoon. Despite limited deep-layer
shear and related storm organization, the environment will be
conducive for damaging wind gusts with the stronger cores.
...Lower Mississippi Valley...
An embedded midlevel impulse in the base of a broad, positive-tilt
large-scale trough will provide a focus for scattered afternoon
thunderstorm development across the lower MS Valley. Generally weak
deep-layer shear will limit overall thunderstorm
organization/longevity, though strong surface-based buoyancy and the
potential for small bands/clusters of storms will favor damaging
wind gusts.
..Weinman.. 07/05/2026
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SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0229 PM CDT Sun Jul 05 2026
Valid 071200Z - 081200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
CENTRAL AND EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA INTO SOUTHWESTERN MINNESOTA...
...SUMMARY...
Strong to severe thunderstorms will pose a risk for scattered
damaging wind gusts and large hail on Tuesday across parts of the
middle Missouri Valley toward the Upper Midwest.
...Northern/central Plains to the Upper Midwest...
Along the northern periphery of an expansive upper ridge centered
over the Southwest, a low-amplitude midlevel impulse will advance
eastward across the northern Plains into the Midwest through the
period. Related forcing for ascent will support multiple rounds of
thunderstorms, generally focused along an ENE/WSW-oriented surface
boundary extending from the Upper Midwest into SD and NE.
While the details regarding convective evolution are unclear and
will be largely influenced by mesoscale factors, a corridor of
moderate-strong surface based buoyancy and elongated hodographs
(40-50 kt of effective shear) will support the potential for
eastward-spreading clusters and supercell structures capable of
damaging winds and large hail through the afternoon/evening. The
greatest potential for an upscale-growing cluster of storms capable
of producing scattered damaging gusts is expected across parts of SD
into southwestern MN -- potentially aided by an eastward-moving
surface wave and gradually strengthening nocturnal LLJ.
...Mid-Atlantic/Carolinas...
Diurnal heating of a very moist air mass (2+ inch PW) may promote
wet microbursts and the potential for localized wind damage with the
stronger thunderstorms that evolve during the afternoon. However,
weak deep-layer flow/shear and nebulous forcing for ascent cast
uncertainty on the overall severe risk, and severe-wind
probabilities have been withheld at this time.
..Weinman.. 07/05/2026
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SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0145 PM CDT Sun Jul 05 2026
Valid 061200Z - 071200Z
Overall, the forecast remains on track with relatively minor changes
made to the IsoDryT and Elevated areas. A Scattered DryT area was
considered for portions of south-central to southeast Oregon and in
northeast Nevada/vicinity, but there remains enough uncertainty
regarding the overlap of sufficient scattered (40%+) coverage,
rainfall amounts, and receptive fuels to preclude a Scattered DryT
area. Gusty outflow winds are likely with the high-based drier
thunderstorms with forecast DCAPE values of 1000-1600 J/kg across
much of the IsoDryT area, while deep pyroconvection is likely on
active large wildfires.
The Elevated area was expanded based on the latest high-resolution
forecast guidance of dry and breezy conditions across the southern
Great Basin and northwest Arizona. Locally elevated winds/RH are
likely across southern Nevada, northern Arizona, and eastern Utah
into western Colorado surrounding the Elevated area.
..Nauslar.. 07/05/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0144 AM CDT Sun Jul 05 2026/
...Synopsis...
Fire weather concerns will continue across parts of the Southwest,
Great Basin, and Pacific Northwest on Monday - largely driven by dry
thunderstorm concerns.
...Pacific Northwest into the Four Corners...
Short-range guidance continues to show persistent upper ridging over
the Four Corners into the early week. Continued north/northeastward
advection of mid-level moisture into a plume of steep mid-level
lapse rates will result in a broad fetch from the Pacific Northwest
into the Four Corners with adequate buoyancy for weak convection,
PWAT values between 0.5 to 0.75 inches, and very dry boundary-layer
conditions. Confidence in thunderstorm occurrence remains highest
across northern CA/NV into adjacent portions of OR and ID where a
slow-moving shortwave trough will focus ascent. More isolated
thunderstorms will be possible with southeastward extent into the
Four Corners region and will likely be driven primarily by localized
orographic ascent. Across both regions, thermodynamic profiles will
largely favor dry lightning, but 10-15 knot storm motions may allow
for pockets of wetting rainfall. Regardless, receptive fuels will
support some concern for lightning ignitions - especially across the
Four Corners where conditions remain very dry.
...Southeast Nevada into Utah and Arizona...
The development of a weak surface low over the northern Great Basin
will likely support a swath of sustained winds near 15 mph from
southern NV into central UT and northern AZ. With a dry air mass
already in place and little to no low-level moisture recovery
expected, RH minimums will likely fall into the teens Monday
afternoon. Although variance among deterministic solutions remains
somewhat high regarding the coverage of 15 mph winds, recent
high-res ensemble guidance suggests a corridor of sustained elevated
conditions may emerge from southeast NV into adjacent portions of UT
and AZ.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
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