RSS Mesoscale Discussions from Storm Prediction Center
WW 10 TORNADO IL IN KY 191815Z - 200200Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Tornado Watch Number 10
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
115 PM EST Thu Feb 19 2026
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Tornado Watch for portions of
Southeast Illinois
Southern Indiana
Western and Central Kentucky
* Effective this Thursday afternoon and evening from 115 PM until
900 PM EST.
* Primary threats include...
A few tornadoes and a couple intense tornadoes possible
Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2
inches in diameter possible
Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible
SUMMARY...Thunderstorm development is anticipated this afternoon
from southeast Illinois into southern Indiana and western/central
Kentucky. In these areas, increasing low-level moisture will lead to
airmass destabilization. Strong vertical shear is in place,
supporting the potential for some of these storms to organize into
supercells. All severe hazards are possible with any supercells that
develop, including very large hail greater than 2" in diameter and
tornadoes. Low-level shear is strong enough to support the potential
for a strong (EF2+) tornado.
The tornado watch area is approximately along and 75 statute miles
north and south of a line from 50 miles west of Evansville IN to 50
miles east northeast of Louisville KY. For a complete depiction of
the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS
WOU0).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for
tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch
area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for
threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements
and possible warnings.
&&
AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail
surface and aloft to 2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind
gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean
storm motion vector 24035.
...Mosier
Read more
WW 0010 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 3
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SE SEM TO
35 SSW ANB TO 20 SSE RMG.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0020
..WEINMAN..01/10/26
ATTN...WFO...BMX...MOB...FFC...LIX...JAN...
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 3
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ALC005-011-017-025-027-051-081-085-087-101-109-111-113-123-129-
131-101640-
AL
. ALABAMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BARBOUR BULLOCK CHAMBERS
CLARKE CLAY ELMORE
LEE LOWNDES MACON
MONTGOMERY PIKE RANDOLPH
RUSSELL TALLAPOOSA WASHINGTON
WILCOX
GAC045-149-101640-
GA
. GEORGIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CARROLL HEARD
MSC041-111-101640-
Read more
MD 0100 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 10... FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN ILLINOIS...SOUTHERN INDIANA...AND NORTHERN KENTUCKY
Mesoscale Discussion 0100
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0256 PM CST Thu Feb 19 2026
Areas affected...portions of southeastern Illinois...southern
Indiana...and northern Kentucky
Concerning...Tornado Watch 10...
Valid 192056Z - 192300Z
The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 10 continues.
SUMMARY...Storm intensity will continue to gradually increase over
the next 1-2 hours with additional development expected across the
watch area. Modest buoyancy and favorable shear profiles will
continue to support a threat for all severe hazards across WW0010,
with some increase in tornado potential expected into this evening.
DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms have gradually increased in coverage over
the past 1-2 hours, primarily over northern/central Kentucky, with
several discrete/semi-discrete supercells noted across the area.
While only a few isolated instances of marginally severe hail have
been noted thus far, gradual strengthening has been observed with
some cells as surface heating/moistening coupled with cold
temperatures aloft has yielded a modestly unstable air mass (MLCAPE
of 500-1000 J/kg) overlapped by favorable deep layer shear profiles
(effective bulk shear of 50+ kts). Farther west, latest guidance
continues to depict additional thunderstorm development and
strengthening across the western portions of the watch area.
As storms continue to strengthen, all severe hazards will be
possible, with steep mid-level lapse rates and elongated hodographs
supporting the threat for large hail and favorable low-level veering
wind profiles (0-1 km SRH of 100-150+ m2/s2 per regional VWP)
supporting a risk for tornadoes. While the gradual loss of diurnal
heating is expected to contribute to low-level stabilization with
time later this evening, strengthening flow is expected to support
additional increases to low-level hodograph curvature. The favorable
shear profiles and increasing SRH will support an increasing tornado
threat over the next couple of hours, with the potential for a
strong tornado or two.
..Chalmers/Mosier.. 02/19/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...JKL...ILN...LMK...IND...PAH...ILX...LSX...
LAT...LON 38388901 38748914 39158914 39428881 39488813 39438725
39228630 39058575 38948538 38798494 38418408 37918370
37448389 37178469 37248566 37408700 37508788 37688830
38008869 38388901
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-130 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN
Read more
MD 0099 CONCERNING HEAVY SNOW FOR EASTERN NEBRASKA AND WESTERN IOWA
Mesoscale Discussion 0099
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1218 PM CST Thu Feb 19 2026
Areas affected...Eastern Nebraska and western Iowa
Concerning...Heavy snow
Valid 191818Z - 200015Z
SUMMARY...Heavy snow is expected to develop eastward into eastern
Nebraska through the afternoon and reach western Iowa this evening.
Snowfall rates could exceed 1 inch per hour for a few hours.
DISCUSSION...A midlevel shortwave trough and associated low-midlevel
ascent will spread eastward from central into eastern NE through the
remainder of the afternoon. An initially dry column with a small
warm nose will cool/saturate as precipitation forms and increases in
intensity from west-to-east, with snow expected to be the primary
precipitation type as a result of wet bulb temperatures well below 0
C. Focused ascent through the dendritic growth layer (driven
primarily by warm advection/frontogenesis 850-600 mb) will support
snowfall at or above 1 inch per hour later this afternoon/evening.
..Thompson.. 02/19/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...DMX...FSD...OAX...GID...LBF...
LAT...LON 41799835 42109777 42249638 42209567 41979531 41439514
41159540 41079627 41139780 41489833 41799835
Read more
SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0159 PM CST Thu Feb 19 2026
Valid 192000Z - 201200Z
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHERN
ILLINOIS AND SOUTHERN INDIANA...
...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms including a few tornadoes, large hail and
damaging wind gusts are expected across parts of the Midwest and
lower Ohio Valley today.
...20Z Update...
No changes to the ongoing forecast appear to be needed at this time.
Dewpoints have had a tendency to mix into the upper 50s F this
afternoon in the lower Ohio Valley region. Convection has thus far
struggled to mature/intensify as a result. Areas of southern
Illinois into southwestern Indiana should be favored for more robust
storm initiation over the next few hours as the shortwave trough
moves in from the west. See the previous discussion for additional
details.
..Wendt.. 02/19/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1022 AM CST Thu Feb 19 2026/
...Midwest/Ohio Valley...
Recent surface analysis places a low over eastern KS with a dryline
extending southwestward from this low through central OK and into
west TX. A warm front also extends eastward from this low across
central MO through central IL and central IN, separating the
moistening airmass south from the stable and cold airmass north.
Surface observations currently show mid 50s dewpoints through
southern IL and southern IN, with the 60s dewpoints farther south
into western KY. This surface low is forecast to progress
northeastward across central MO and into west-central IL today
before continuing northeastward into the southern Lake Michigan
vicinity by early tomorrow. Continued northward moisture advection
is anticipated as this low progresses, but this low-level moistening
will be countered somewhat by boundary-layer mixing, resulting in
some uncertainty to how high the dewpoints will reach across the OH
Valley this afternoon. General consensus places upper 50s dewpoints
into the I-70 corridor by the late afternoon.
These increasing dewpoints coupled with cold temperatures aloft and
afternoon temperatures in the upper 60s/low 70s should result in
modest airmass destabilization within the warm sector, despite a
relatively warm layer between 850-700 mb. In addition to improving
thermodynamics, the deep-layer southwesterly flow is forecast to
strengthen as well. The strongest mid-level flow will likely be
displaced just south of the better thermodynamics, but forecast
shear profiles are still quite robust across the OH Valley. The
general expectation is for this robust vertical shear (i.e.
effective bulk shear over 50 kt this afternoon) to somewhat
compensate for the more modest buoyancy, resulting in an organized
storm mode and supercells.
The dryline will likely remain west of this region during the
afternoon, with the lift over the warm sector provided by a subtle
lead shortwave currently moving through southern MO. This shortwave
should interact with the warm sector across the OH Valley this
afternoon, supporting thunderstorm development. Overall coverage is
not expected to be high, but any storms that do mature could produce
all severe hazards, including tornadoes. Additionally, the robust
shear suggests that once a storm matures, it could persist for
several hours. Given this updraft persistence in the presence of
veering low-level wind profiles, a strong (EF2+) tornado is
possible.
Additional thunderstorms are possible along the front during the
evening and overnight from the TN Valley eastward into the central
Appalachians. A few strong to severe storms are possible, but
limited buoyancy should keep this potential isolated. Greatest
probability for a severe storm along the front currently appears to
be across western/middle TN and southern-central KY this evening.
Read more
SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0126 PM CST Thu Feb 19 2026
Valid 211200Z - 221200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE GULF COAST AND CAROLINAS...
...SUMMARY...
Strong thunderstorms may overspread parts of the eastern Gulf and
south Atlantic coast states Saturday, accompanied by at least some
risk for damaging wind gusts and marginally severe hail.
...Gulf Coast and Carolinas...
A stalled frontal zone across parts of the Southeast will begin to
move southeastward as an initial shortwave trough over the lower MS
Valley and Southeast amplifies. Aided by additional troughing
upstream over the central and northern Plains, flow aloft will
intensify and turn northwesterly helping to deepen a surface cyclone
along the frontal zone over GA and SC. The increased mid-level
ascent and strengthening frontal forcing will move eastward into
parts of the Gulf Coast and southern Carolinas Saturday afternoon.
With dewpoints in the mid 60s F, some destabilization is expected
with daytime heating. Poor mid-level lapse rate suggest buoyancy
will be relatively modest, but sufficient for scattered storm
development across central AL/GA and the southern Carolinas.
Ongoing elevated storms early Saturday morning should persist and
move southeastward with additional development expected ahead of the
front through the afternoon. Strong mostly unidirectional westerly
flow will likely support some organization into bands or clusters.
Damaging gusts appear to be the most likely threat, though hail and
a brief tornado are possible given the moist surface conditions and
supercell shear profiles. Convection should gradually weaken as the
front approaches the coast later Saturday evening and large-scale
ascent lifts away to the northeast.
..Lyons.. 02/19/2026
Read more
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0138 PM CST Thu Feb 19 2026
Valid 201200Z - 211200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR EASTERN NEW MEXICO INTO WESTERN
TEXAS...
...Southern High Plains...
An embedded mid-level short wave impulse and attendant 90+ kt jet
will eject into the Southern Plains Friday. The strong westerly flow
along with subsequent lee surface trough development will support
dry, downslope flow across much of Southern High Plains.
West-southwest winds of 20-25 mph with relative humidity dropping
into 15-20% range across eastern NM and west TX will yield critical
fire weather conditions for the region. Warmer and drier conditions
are expected across the Trans Pecos and TX Big Bend areas, where
afternoon relative humidity will likely fall below 10% by peak
heating. Expanded Critical Highlights into portions far west TX
where sustained westerly winds of around 20 mph, very low relative
humidity and receptive fuels align to support wildfire spread.
..Williams/Garcia.. 02/19/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0139 AM CST Thu Feb 19 2026/
...Synopsis...
The next in a series of mid-level impulses embedded in broader upper
troughing will overspread the southern Plains, resulting in surface
low development across the southern High Plains tomorrow (Friday).
As the low tracks eastward, dry westerly flow will promote wildfire
spread conditions. The latest guidance consensus depicts 20-25 mph
sustained westerly surface winds coinciding with 15 percent RH by
afternoon peak heating, warranting the introduction of Critical
highlights.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0354 PM CST Thu Feb 19 2026
Valid 211200Z - 271200Z
...Synopsis...
As upper-level troughing shifts eastward, a dry cold front sweeps
across the Southern Plains bringing dry northerly flow and fire
weather concerns to southern TX Day 3/Saturday. Widespread rainfall
across much of the Southeast should temporarily alleviate fire
weather concerns over the weekend. Rainfall should be limited
farther south across the Gulf Coast and FL, with particular concern
for FL where dry-post frontal northerly flow could increase the fire
weather threat for Day 4/Sunday and 5/Monday. The upper ridge will
begin to break down D6/Sunday, introducing dry return flow and
downslope winds across the Central and Southern Plains, potentially
increasing fire weather concerns through the extended period.
...Day 3/Saturday - Southern Texas...
Post frontal northerly winds behind a prominent dry cold front move
into TX Day 3/Saturday. Heightened fire weather concerns should
exist across portions of central and southern TX where RH will drop
to 10-20 percent with sustained northerly winds of 10-20 mph spread
across a dry fuelscape. 40% Critical probabilities have been
maintained.
...Day 4/Sunday and Day 5/Monday - Florida and Southern Plains...
Deep layer northwesterly flow develops across the Southeast and FL
behind a surface cold front underlying an amplifying upper-level
trough across the Northeast. Widespread wetting rainfall from Day
4/Sunday is expected to remain north of the Gulf Coast, with minimal
precipitation across FL. A cold front will pass through the northern
FL peninsula early afternoon D4/Sunday bringing post frontal
northwesterly winds and low RH. Coincident dry fuels should increase
the fire weather threat where 40% Critical probabilities have been
added. D5/Monday dry northwesterly flow is expected to shift to
southern FL where even lower RH is anticipated, maintaining 40%
Critical probabilities. There is uncertainty in the RH reductions
under a cooler, dry return flow pattern across the Southern Plains
on D5/Monday, which precludes introductions of Critical
probabilities at this time.
...Day 6/Tuesday - Southern and Central Plains...
Fire weather concerns reemerge across portions of the central and
southern High Plains via dry return flow and increasing westerly
winds aloft as the upper-level ridge across the Intermountain West
breaks down. 40% critical probabilities have been added where a
combination of low RH and strong westerly winds overlap dry fuels in
eastern NM, TX Panhandle, and southwestern OK. Beneath the
upper-level ridge a surface low will emerge in the lee of the
northern Rockies, tightening a surface pressure gradient across
eastern WY and western NE. Strong downslope winds may occur, though
cooler temperatures and RH uncertainties have limited the
introduction of Critical probabilities for now.
...Day 7/8 Wednesday/Thursday - West Texas...
40% probabilities have been introduced across the West TX region on
D7/Wednesday as long-range models are hinting at hot, dry, windy
conditions. Increasing northwest flow aloft and induced surface lee
troughing will support increased fire weather concerns. Uncertainty
is too high for D8/Thursday, though the anticipated pattern could
suggest an ongoing fire weather threat through the forecast period.
..Elizalde-Garcia/Williams.. 02/19/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
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