RSS Mesoscale Discussions from Storm Prediction Center
No watches are valid as of Sun May 31 17:28:02 UTC 2026.
MD 0918 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MO
Mesoscale Discussion 0918
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1154 AM CDT Sun May 31 2026
Areas affected...Portions of central and southern MO
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 311654Z - 311930Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent
SUMMARY...A couple instances of severe hail and locally damaging
wind gusts are possible through the afternoon.
DISCUSSION...Thunderstorm clusters evolving along/immediately north
of convective outflow spreading into central/southern MO are
beginning to impinge on a moist, diurnally destabilizing PBL. Steep
midlevel lapse rates (sampled by the 12Z SGF sounding) atop lower
70s dewpoints will yield a strongly unstable air mass with continued
diurnal heating this afternoon. This, combined with around 30 kt of
effective shear (slightly enhanced by a convectively augmented
midlevel impulse to the north), will support loosely organized
clusters through the afternoon. The stronger storms will be capable
of producing isolated severe hail and locally damaging wind gusts.
Additional isolated storm development is possible along the trailing
outflow boundary in southwest MO this afternoon, though weak
large-scale forcing for ascent limits this confidence in this
scenario.
..Weinman/Thompson.. 05/31/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...LSX...SGF...
LAT...LON 38139293 38579191 38689139 38639091 38469051 38029034
37589050 37249095 36969168 36849262 36889379 37109424
37389442 37579436 37689394 38139293
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN
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SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1126 AM CDT Sun May 31 2026
Valid 311630Z - 011200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING INTO
TONIGHT FROM EASTERN KANSAS INTO WESTERN/CENTRAL MISSOURI...
...SUMMARY...
A few severe storms with large hail and damaging winds are possible
this evening into tonight from eastern Kansas into western and
central Missouri.
...Eastern KS/MO late this afternoon through tonight...
A blocking pattern remains from the Northeast to the northern
Rockies, with a weak southern-stream undercut from the central
Plains to the mid MS Valley. The remnants of overnight convection
persist across MO with multiple outflow surges toward the southeast,
and this convection may persist through the afternoon with some
potential for isolated wind damage/large hail. Limited 12z
soundings show a warm elevated mixed layer is present farther
southwest at OUN, where surface temperatures will need to warm into
the mid 90s to largely remove convective inhibition. Gradual
modification of the outflow near the KS/OK border, on the northeast
edge of the warmest surface temperatures, could allow for isolated
thunderstorm development this evening. If storms do form, the
environment will conditionally favor supercells capable of producing
very large hail and a tornado or two. Otherwise, convection will
become probable this evening into tonight within the warm advection
zone from eastern KS into western MO, where a storm cluster or two
will be capable of producing damaging winds and large hail into
tonight.
...Mid MO Valley this afternoon/evening...
Low-level ascent along a stalled baroclinic zone from eastern
NE/western IA across the central Dakotas, as well as an embedded
shortwave trough pivoting northeastward over SD, will likely support
scattered thunderstorms late this afternoon/evening. Vertical shear
will be a little stronger to the south (NE/IA) where midlevel flow
will be more westerly, coincident with MLCAPE in the 1000-2000 J/kg
range. Wind profiles and buoyancy are expected to remain weaker
farther northwest in SD/ND, though forcing for ascent will be
stronger with the midlevel trough and an associated frontal surge
from the west.
...West TX this afternoon/evening...
High-based thunderstorm development is possible along the dryline
later this afternoon/evening as surface temperatures warm into the
mid-upper 90s. Vertical shear will be weak, but steep low-midlevel
lapse rates will favor strong downdrafts and the potential for
isolated severe outflow gusts, especially with any semi-persistent
storm clusters.
..Thompson/Weinman.. 05/31/2026
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SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1225 PM CDT Sun May 31 2026
Valid 011200Z - 021200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE CENTRAL
HIGH PLAINS...
...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms with large hail and severe wind gusts are expected
Monday afternoon and evening across parts of the central Plains.
Scattered strong to severe wind gusts will also be possible from the
Ozarks southeastward into parts of the Southeast.
...Central Plains...
An upper low with leading negative-tilt wave will shift north across
MT/Dakotas on Monday, with moderate mid to high level
southwesterlies persisting across the northern to central High
Plains with 35-40 kt at 500 mb. Temperatures aloft will also remain
cool across this region, leading to steep midlevel lapse rates.
At the surface, low pressure will develop over southeast CO and the
Panhandles area, with strengthening easterlies across KS/NE/CO. This
will maintain low-level moisture westward to the Front Range as
daytime heating destabilizes the air mass. MLCAPE to around 1500
J/kg appears reasonable, and effective shear will approach 50 kt
over eastern CO due to strong direction change with height.
Storms are likely to form by 21Z from southeast WY southward along
the Front Range, with a few cells or bowing structure proceeding
into western NE/KS by evening. Isolated hail to 2.00" will be
possible initially, with perhaps a brief/weak tornado. Otherwise,
storms should produce severe gusts as outflow production increases.
Additional storms will be possible with hail/wind potential
near/north of the surface low into southwest KS where heating and
surface convergence will be maximized.
...From MO into MS/AL...
An MCS or remnants thereof is forecast to be over southern MO Monday
morning, with several models suggesting storm regeneration along the
outflow at it travels across TN, northern MS and AL. It is unclear
whether this activity will still be severe, thus will maintain
Marginal Risk. Otherwise, new storm generation is possible from AR
into MS and AL near or west of the early day activity/outflow. Winds
aloft are even weaker with westward extent, which lends uncertainty
to organization potential. However, strong instability with near
3000 J/kg MUCAPE and ample PWAT will support at least locally strong
to severe gusts.
..Jewell.. 05/31/2026
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SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1140 AM CDT Sun May 31 2026
Valid 311700Z - 011200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
The ongoing forecast remains on track. See the previous discussion
for more information.
..Elizalde-Garcia.. 05/31/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0105 AM CDT Sun May 31 2026/
...Synopsis...
Fire weather concerns will be limited for today across the country.
Early-morning surface observations show the driest conditions across
eastern AZ into central NM where overnight RH values have struggled
to climb out of the teens. Very dry conditions will prevail across
AZ/NM for today (afternoon RH minimums in the single digits to low
teens), and fine fuel analyses and recent fire activity in NM
suggest that some fuels are favorable for fire spread. However,
recent guidance continues to suggest winds across the region will be
fairly light - generally 10-15 mph. This limits confidence in an
appreciable fire weather threat away from more prominent central NM
terrain features. Similarly, dry conditions will prevail across the
Great Lakes and upper MS River Valley region, but weak winds within
the dry air mass will modulate fire weather concerns. A swath of
elevated fire weather conditions will likely emerge across southeast
WY within a downslope flow regime, but recent rainfall has likely
improved fuel moisture content.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
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