RSS Mesoscale Discussions from Storm Prediction Center
No watches are valid as of Fri Jan 2 17:29:02 UTC 2026.
No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Fri Jan 2 17:29:02 UTC 2026.
SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0657 AM CST Fri Jan 02 2026
Valid 021300Z - 031200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not forecast.
...Central Gulf Coast into the Southeast...
Early-morning satellite imagery shows a pair of shortwave troughs
moving within the broadly anticyclonic flow that covers much of the
CONUS. The easternmost shortwave is currently moving through eastern
OK and is forecast to continue progressing eastward throughout the
day, moving across the Mid-South and TN Valley. The westernmost
shortwave is currently moving into the Four Corners vicinity, with
continued southeastward progress anticipated throughout the day,
taking the wave through southern CO/northern NM, the TX Panhandle,
and OK/north TX. Recent surface analysis places a low over the
central TX/OK border region, with modest low-level moisture return
ongoing across the TX Gulf Coast and Lower MS Valley.
This low is forecast to progress gradually eastward in tandem with
its parent shortwave, ending the period over central AL. Broad
low-level moisture return will persist within the warm sector of
this low, with low to mid 60s dewpoints likely extending from
southern LA into central MS/AL by early tomorrow morning. Warm-air
advection across this warm sector is forecast to result in elevated
instability beginning in the late afternoon and persisting through
the evening and overnight. Elevated thunderstorms are anticipated
near the nose of the low-level jet where the warm-air advection will
be maximized. Moderate mid-level flow will extend across the region
and vertical shear will be strong enough to support storm
organization. However, weak buoyancy is expected to limit updraft
depth and persistence, keeping the overall severe potential low.
Some surface-based instability is possible very late in the period
(09Z-12Z Saturday) from southeast LA into the FL Panhandle. Even so,
limited forcing for ascent and weak buoyancy should temper the
overall severe potential here as well with the greater severe risk
occurring later and further downstream on Day 2 (Saturday).
...Northern/Central CA...
A deep cyclone, currently over the western Pacific Ocean, is
forecast to progress northeastward throughout the day as a series of
shortwave troughs rotate through its southern and eastern periphery.
One of these shortwaves is forecast to reach the northern
CA/southern OR coast by late tonight. Strong ascent and cooling
mid-level temperatures associated with this wave will support
showers and embedded thunderstorms across northern and central CA
tonight. The deepest convection is anticipated within a frontal band
forecast to reach the region between 04Z and 06Z. Robust wind fields
will accompany this shortwave as well, but the limited buoyancy
should temper the overall severe potential.
..Mosier/Bentley.. 01/02/2026
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SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1029 AM CST Fri Jan 02 2026
Valid 021630Z - 031200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are unlikely through tonight.
...Southeast States...
Multiple shortwave troughs, including across the Mid-South and High
Plains early today, will progress east-southeastward toward the
region within amplifying flow aloft. This will influence weak
cyclogenesis, progressing from northeast Texas toward the
ArkLaMiss/Alabama tonight, as a warm/moist sector becomes
increasingly established across southeast Louisiana, southern
portions of Mississippi/Alabama and parts of the Florida Panhandle,
with low/some middle 60s F surface dewpoints tonight.
The potential for isolated elevated thunderstorms will increase late
today, and more so tonight regionally. Moderate mid-level flow will
extend across the region and vertical shear will be strong enough to
support storm organization. However, weak buoyancy is expected to
limit updraft depth and persistence, keeping the severe potential
low. Some surface-based instability is possible late tonight/early
Saturday for coastal areas, but lingering warm air aloft/modest
forcing for ascent will likely limit the overall severe potential
regionally until the post-12z Day 2/Saturday time frame.
...Northern/Central California...
A prominent upper trough centered around -134W will gradually
progress eastward with a lead shortwave trough reaching coastal
portions of northern California and southwest Oregon late tonight
and early Saturday. A related influx of moistening and steepening
mid-level lapse rates will yield an increasing potential for some
thunderstorms tonight, particularly for coastal areas as a frontal
band moves inland. Considerably strengthening deep-layer winds may
contribute to some potential for convectively enhanced wind gusts,
but severe thunderstorm-related severe potential should remain
limited.
..Guyer/Dean.. 01/02/2026
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SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1125 AM CST Fri Jan 02 2026
Valid 031200Z - 041200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE SOUTHEAST AND PARTS OF NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND THE OREGON
COAST...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe storms are possible across parts of the Southeast on
Saturday, and the Sacramento/northern San Joaquin Valleys to coastal
northern California-southwest Oregon in the afternoon/early evening.
...Southeast...
Late-morning surface observations across the TX/LA/MS region show
the early stages of moisture return ahead of a gradually deepening
surface low to the west across the southern Plains. The ejection of
a low-amplitude mid-level perturbation (noted in water-vapor imagery
over the Four Corners region as of 17 UTC) will lead to modest
strengthening and an eastward progression of the surface low into
the Southeast states through Saturday evening.
Thunderstorms will likely develop within the warm/moist advection
regime and along a weak surface trough/cold front by mid/late
afternoon across portions of AL, GA, and northern FL. A plume of low
to mid-60s dewpoints will likely become established by late
afternoon across the FL Panhandle into southern GA, and should
support MLCAPE values upwards of 1000 J/kg, though ongoing
showers/thunderstorms may modulate overall destabilization to some
degree. 50-knot mid-level flow will support adequate deep-layer
shear for organized convection, including the potential for
semi-discrete supercells before gradual upscale growth occurs
through late afternoon/evening. Some severe wind/hail and tornado
threat is expected to materialize, but uncertainty regarding the
degree of destabilization within the warm sector and storm mode
limits confidence for higher risk probabilities. This uncertainty is
reflected in 12z CAM/HREF guidance, which depicts only modest
signals for intense convection. That said, a more focused corridor
of severe risk may emerge along the FL/GA line where the convective
environment should be relatively most favorable for supercells.
...Central Valley into the CA/OR Coasts...
A strong upper trough off the West Coast is expected to move inland
over the next 24 hours. Multiple bands of showers and thunderstorms
will likely spread across northern CA and OR through peak heating
when modest low-level moisture (low 50s dewpoints) will likely
support a few hundred J/kg MLCAPE. Southerly low-level flow through
the Central Valley will maintain some low-level hodograph curvature
that may be favorable for a brief tornado or two. Additionally,
40-45 flow between the 1-3 km layer may augment downdraft winds and
support sporadic wind damage and perhaps a few severe gusts.
..Moore.. 01/02/2026
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SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook CORR 1
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1031 AM CST Fri Jan 02 2026
Valid 021700Z - 031200Z
CORRECTED FOR GRAPHIC ERROR
No changes are needed to the D1 Fire Weather Outlook. See previous
discussion below for more information.
..Thornton.. 01/02/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0144 AM CST Fri Jan 02 2026/
...Synopsis...
The large-scale pattern will consist of a western ridge and an
eastern trough on Friday. A short-wave trough will undercut the
western ridge and traverse the Southern Plains as it moves toward
the Southeast. As this trough moves east, a surface low will develop
across eastern Texas on Friday. To the west of this low, westerly
downslope flow will support gusty surface winds and modest drying.
This will support elevated fire-weather conditions across portions
of west and southwest Texas. Here, the greatest potential relative
humidity values to fall into the 20%s amidst winds in the 10-15 mph
range with stronger gusts.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
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