RSS Mesoscale Discussions from Storm Prediction Center
WW 229 SEVERE TSTM KS MO OK 190435Z - 191200Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 229
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1135 PM CDT Mon May 18 2026
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of
Southeast Kansas
Far Southwest Missouri
North-Central and Far Northeast Oklahoma
* Effective this Monday night and Tuesday morning from 1135 PM
until 700 AM CDT.
* Primary threats include...
Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible
Isolated large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible
A tornado or two possible
SUMMARY...Strong to severe thunderstorms will remain possible along
a cold front as it slowly drifts southeastward into
north-central/far northeast Oklahoma, southeast Kansas, and
southwest Missouri. Damaging gusts are the primary severe hazards,
although isolated hail is possible as well. There is also a
low-probability risk of a brief line-embedded tornado.
The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 35
statute miles north and south of a line from 20 miles west of Enid
OK to 35 miles north northeast of Monett MO. For a complete
depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update
(WOUS64 KWNS WOU9).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.
&&
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 227...WW 228...
AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A
few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector
27030.
...Mosier
Read more
WW 228 SEVERE TSTM IA MO 190230Z - 190900Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 228
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
930 PM CDT Mon May 18 2026
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of
Eastern Iowa
Northeast Missouri
* Effective this Monday night and Tuesday morning from 930 PM
until 400 AM CDT.
* Primary threats include...
Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely
Scattered large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible
A tornado or two possible
SUMMARY...A line of thunderstorms currently ongoing from central
Iowa through north-central/northwest Missouri is expected to
continue eastward/southeastward this evening. Environmental
conditions support a continued risk of damaging gusts. A
low-probability threat for brief line-embedded tornadoes is possible
as well.
The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 30
statute miles east and west of a line from 55 miles north northeast
of Cedar Rapids IA to 15 miles south southwest of Jefferson City MO.
For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch
outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU8).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.
&&
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 225...WW 227...
AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A
few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector
24035.
...Mosier
Read more
WW 0229 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 229
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 W CSM TO
15 NW END TO 30 N PNC TO 45 NE CNU.
..GLEASON..05/19/26
ATTN...WFO...ICT...SGF...OUN...TSA...
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 229
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
KSC001-011-019-021-035-037-049-099-125-133-205-207-190740-
KS
. KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ALLEN BOURBON CHAUTAUQUA
CHEROKEE COWLEY CRAWFORD
ELK LABETTE MONTGOMERY
NEOSHO WILSON WOODSON
MOC009-011-015-039-057-085-097-109-119-145-185-217-190740-
MO
. MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BARRY BARTON BENTON
CEDAR DADE HICKORY
JASPER LAWRENCE MCDONALD
NEWTON ST. CLAIR VERNON
OKC009-011-035-039-043-047-053-071-073-083-093-103-105-113-115-
117-119-129-147-149-190740-
Read more
WW 0228 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 228
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SSW JEF
TO 45 NNE COU TO 25 NW UIN TO 20 S BRL.
..GLEASON..05/19/26
ATTN...WFO...DVN...LSX...
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 228
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
MOC007-027-051-111-127-173-190740-
MO
. MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
AUDRAIN CALLAWAY COLE
LEWIS MARION RALLS
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
Read more
WW 0227 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 227
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 S SZL TO
30 NNE CNU TO 35 WSW OJC TO 15 SSE OJC TO 30 W SZL TO 5 NW SZL TO
25 NE SZL TO 50 NW COU TO 5 WSW IRK TO 30 SSW OTM.
..JEWELL..05/19/26
ATTN...WFO...TOP...ICT...EAX...
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 227
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
KSC003-059-107-121-190540-
KS
. KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ANDERSON FRANKLIN LINN
MIAMI
MOC001-013-037-053-083-089-101-121-159-175-197-190540-
MO
. MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ADAIR BATES CASS
COOPER HENRY HOWARD
JOHNSON MACON PETTIS
RANDOLPH SCHUYLER
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
Read more
WW 0225 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 225
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 WNW FLV
TO 10 W STJ TO 35 NE STJ TO 25 W LWD TO 20 SW DSM.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0780
..JEWELL..05/19/26
ATTN...WFO...DMX...OAX...EAX...
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 225
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
IAC007-039-051-053-099-117-123-125-127-135-157-159-171-175-179-
181-185-190340-
IA
. IOWA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
APPANOOSE CLARKE DAVIS
DECATUR JASPER LUCAS
MAHASKA MARION MARSHALL
MONROE POWESHIEK RINGGOLD
TAMA UNION WAPELLO
WARREN WAYNE
KSC005-190340-
KS
. KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ATCHISON
MOC003-021-061-063-075-079-081-129-227-190340-
Read more
MD 0783 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR SOUTH TEXAS
Mesoscale Discussion 0783
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0130 AM CDT Tue May 19 2026
Areas affected...South Texas
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 190630Z - 190830Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent
SUMMARY...A bowing complex of thunderstorms continues to move east
across far south Texas. The environment ahead of the cluster remains
extremely unstable. Strong winds and isolated hail may be possible
with the core of these storms. A watch is currently not expected.
DISCUSSION...An HP multicell cluster across northern Mexico has
evolved into a small bowing cluster as it moves east across south
Texas this morning. This complex appears to be aided by modest deep
layer ascent in associated with a 70-knot 300-mb jet streak moving
northeast from the base of the western North American longwave
trough.
The 20260519/00Z Corpus Christi sounding observed an extremely
unstable airmass, with MUCAPE in excess of 4500 J/kg. Morning
objectively analyzed fields suggest MUCAPE remains in excess of 4000
J/kg. The observed sounding also sampled a very moist airmass, with
precipitable water in excess of 2". Thus, heavy, water-laden
downdrafts will support the possibility of damaging winds with this
complex, despite the observed weak low-level lapse rates. Given the
degree of instability, isolated hail cannot be ruled out.
The limited spatial extent of this bowing complex (one storm only a
couple of counties wide, rapidly approaching the coast) should
preclude the need for a watch, although conditions will continue to
be monitored.
..Marsh/Gleason.. 05/19/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...CRP...BRO...
LAT...LON 27149953 27419910 27829894 28109904 28319917 28569850
28529780 28469715 28329681 28159665 27909659 27579668
27289695 27119728 27059791 27149953
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN
Read more
SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1243 AM CDT Tue May 19 2026
Valid 191200Z - 201200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...AND LOWER GREAT
LAKES...
...SUMMARY...
Widely scattered severe thunderstorms will be possible today from
the southern Plains northeastward into the mid Mississippi Valley
and lower Great Lakes. Damaging winds and hail will be the primary
threats. A greater threat for large hail is expected in the southern
High Plains.
...Ozarks/Mid Mississippi and Ohio Valleys/Lower Great Lakes...
At mid-levels today, a shortwave trough and an associated 75 to 90
knot jet streak will move northeastward into the upper Mississippi
Valley. At the surface, a cold front will advance southeastward
through the lower Missouri Valley and Great Lakes. Along and ahead
of the front, surface dewpoints will mostly be in the mid to upper
60s F. This will contribute to the development of moderate
instability over much of the pre-frontal airmass. Increasing
low-level convergence near the front and warming surface
temperatures will support scattered thunderstorm development by
afternoon. Along much of the front, 0-6 km shear is forecast to be
between 25 to 35 knots, suggesting that enough shear will be present
for organized storms. The potential for severe wind gusts will be
greatest along the leading edge of line segments that form in areas
that heat up the most. The severe threat is expected to persist into
the evening.
...Southern Plains...
A mid-level shortwave trough will move northeastward into the
southern High Plains today. Ahead of the trough, a moist and
unstable airmass will be located over much of the southern Plains
with surface dewpoints the upper 60s and lower 70s F. In response to
surface heating, moderate instability will develop over much of the
moist sector, with MLCAPE likely peaking in the 3000 to 4000 J/kg
range in many areas. Increasing low-level convergence near the front
will lead to thunderstorm development during the afternoon. The
greatest convective coverage is forecast across west-central and
north-central Texas, where low-level flow will be maximized. Ahead
of the developing storms, forecast soundings by late afternoon show
moderate deep-layer shear and steep mid-level lapse rates. This
environment will support a potential for supercells with large hail,
mainly with cells in the stronger instability that can remain
discrete. A threat for severe wind gusts is also expected, with this
threat increasing if a cold pool can organize during the late
afternoon or evening. The severe threat could impact parts of the
Texas Hill Country and east Texas later in the evening, before the
threat becomes more isolated.
..Broyles/Squitieri.. 05/19/2026
Read more
SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1248 AM CDT Tue May 19 2026
Valid 201200Z - 211200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC AND OVER THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS
INTO SOUTHWEST TEXAS...
...SUMMARY...
Scattered thunderstorm activity across the Mid-Atlantic region
Wednesday may pose a risk for severe wind and hail. Large hail will
be possible with isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms
developing over the southern High Plains into southwest Texas.
...Synopsis...
A trough will continue to lift northward into Canada D2/Wednesday,
with a cold front extending from the Northeast southward across the
southern Ohio Valley into the lower Mississippi Valley and westward
into southwestern Texas and eastern New Mexico. Scattered strong to
severe storms are expected near the front in the mid Atlantic and
near the high terrain of western Texas.
...Mid-Atlantic...
Scattered showers and storms are expected along the cold front
Wednesday afternoon across portions of the Mid-Atlantic. The
downstream air mass will include a narrow plume of weak to moderate
instability. Though deep layer shear and mid-level lapse rates will
be marginal, steep low level lapse rates will support a few
instances of strong to severe winds.
...Southwest Texas and eastern New Mexico...
Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop
near the high terrain within the upslope flow regime across western
Texas and eastern New Mexico Wednesday afternoon. Forecast soundings
depict sufficient deep layer shear to support supercells. Moderate
to strong instability and steep low to mid-level lapse rates will
support potential for large hail and a few occurrences of severe
winds.
..Thornton.. 05/19/2026
Read more
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1153 PM CDT Mon May 18 2026
Valid 191200Z - 201200Z
...Synopsis...
A broad mid-level trough will continue to meander over the
Intermountain West today, maintaining a tight surface pressure
gradient over the Southwest. Deep boundary-layer mixing during the
afternoon will allow stronger mid-level flow to transfer to the
surface, resulting in widespread breezy conditions. Meanwhile, a dry
air mass will remain entrenched over portions of southern Nevada and
the Mojave Desert, driving minimum RH values into the single digits
and teens with localized areas of elevated wind gusts over
receptive, but sub-critically dry fuels.
...Southwest...
As daytime heating maximizes this afternoon, deep surface mixing
will yield sustained south/southwesterly winds of 15-20 mph. Given
the dry antecedent conditions, surface RH will quickly drop to
10-15% across central/southern NM and portions of eastern AZ.
Channeling effects within terrain-favored areas, specifically the
Middle Rio Grande Valley, will likely produce localized Critical
fire weather conditions, where sustained winds may briefly exceed 20
mph alongside RH values near 10-15%.
..Stearns.. 05/19/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1154 PM CDT Mon May 18 2026
Valid 201200Z - 211200Z
...Synopsis...
The active and progressive mid-level synoptic pattern responsible
for recent critical fire weather across the Southwest and southern
High Plains will begin transitioning toward a more quasi-zonal flow
regime on Wednesday. Below-normal temperatures and fairly widespread
precipitation will overspread of the central and eastern CONUS. This
incoming airmass will temporarily dampen the fire weather threat
across a broad portion of the country and support a beneficial
green-up of herbaceous vegetation in some areas, particularly across
the northern CONUS, where fire-slowing vegetation has struggled to
emerge this spring. However, dry and breezy conditions remain in
place for at least one more day across portions of the Southwest.
...Southwest...
Despite the flattening upper-level pattern, a lingering belt of
moderate southwesterly flow aloft (30-40 kts near the top of the
afternoon boundary layer due to strong diurnal heating) will remain
over the Southern Rockies. Sustained southwest winds of 10-20 mph
will align with minimum relative humidity values of 10-20%. Thus, an
area of Elevated fire weather conditions will exist as this wind/RH
overlap coincides with critically dry fuels.
..Stearns.. 05/19/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
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