RSS Mesoscale Discussions from Storm Prediction Center
WW 314 SEVERE TSTM AR IL KS MO OK 111945Z - 120200Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 314
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
245 PM CDT Thu Jun 11 2026
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of
Northwest Arkansas
Western Illinois
Southeast Kansas
Missouri
Northeast Oklahoma
* Effective this Thursday afternoon and evening from 245 PM until
900 PM CDT.
* Primary threats include...
Scattered damaging winds likely with isolated significant gusts
to 75 mph possible
Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2.5
inches in diameter possible
A tornado or two possible
SUMMARY...Thunderstorms will continue to increase in coverage and
intensity along/ahead of a cold front this afternoon and evening.
The strongest convection may become supercellular and pose a threat
for large to very large hail, and perhaps a tornado or two.
Otherwise, scattered severe/damaging winds appear likely as
thunderstorms grow upscale into one or more bowing clusters through
the evening.
The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 100
statute miles east and west of a line from 75 miles northwest of
Saint Louis MO to 10 miles southwest of Muskogee OK. For a complete
depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update
(WOUS64 KWNS WOU4).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.
&&
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 312...WW 313...
AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
2.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 65 knots. A
few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 600. Mean storm motion vector
28035.
...Gleason
Read more
WW 313 TORNADO IA IL IN MO WI LM 111855Z - 120200Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Tornado Watch Number 313
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
155 PM CDT Thu Jun 11 2026
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Tornado Watch for portions of
Southern and Eastern Iowa
Northern and Central Illinois
Northwest Indiana
Northern Missouri
Southern Wisconsin
Lake Michigan
* Effective this Thursday afternoon and evening from 155 PM until
900 PM CDT.
* Primary threats include...
Several tornadoes and a couple intense tornadoes likely
Widespread damaging winds and isolated significant gusts to 80
mph likely
Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2.5
inches in diameter possible
SUMMARY...A complex scenario remains apparent this afternoon across
the Midwest. Any supercells which can become surface based will pose
a threat for strong tornadoes and large to very large hail given a
rather favorable environment. The threat for widespread
severe/damaging winds will increase through the afternoon/evening as
thunderstorms likely grow upscale into an intense bowing cluster.
Peak gusts may reach up to 70-80 mph.
The tornado watch area is approximately along and 80 statute miles
north and south of a line from 45 miles west northwest of Kirksville
MO to 80 miles east northeast of Marseilles IL. For a complete
depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update
(WOUS64 KWNS WOU3).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for
tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch
area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for
threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements
and possible warnings.
&&
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...This tornado watch replaces tornado
watch number 311. Watch number 311 will not be in effect after
155 PM CDT. CONTINUE...WW 312...
AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail
surface and aloft to 2.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind
gusts to 70 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 600. Mean
storm motion vector 26035.
...Gleason
Read more
WW 312 SEVERE TSTM NY OH PA WV 111720Z - 120000Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 312
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
120 PM EDT Thu Jun 11 2026
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of
Southwest New York
Eastern Ohio
Western and Northern Pennsylvania
Northern West Virginia
* Effective this Thursday afternoon and evening from 120 PM until
800 PM EDT.
* Primary threats include...
Scattered damaging wind gusts to 65 mph likely
Isolated large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible
SUMMARY...Loosely organized clusters should pose a threat for mainly
damaging winds as they move east-northeastward this afternoon and
evening. Peak gusts may reach up to 60-65 mph, and isolated severe
hail may occur with the strongest cores.
The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 75
statute miles east and west of a line from 25 miles north northwest
of Bradford PA to 20 miles east southeast of Parkersburg WV. For a
complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline
update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU2).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.
&&
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 311...
AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 55 knots. A
few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector
26030.
...Gleason
Read more
WW 0314 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0314 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET
Read more
WW 0313 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0313 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET
Read more
WW 0312 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 312
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 N ZZV TO
25 SSW YNG TO 25 NW FKL TO 25 NNE ERI.
..GLEASON..06/11/26
ATTN...WFO...BUF...CLE...RLX...PBZ...CTP...
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 312
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
NYC003-009-013-112040-
NY
. NEW YORK COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ALLEGANY CATTARAUGUS CHAUTAUQUA
OHC009-013-019-029-059-067-081-111-115-121-157-167-112040-
OH
. OHIO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ATHENS BELMONT CARROLL
COLUMBIANA GUERNSEY HARRISON
JEFFERSON MONROE MORGAN
NOBLE TUSCARAWAS WASHINGTON
PAC003-005-007-019-021-023-031-033-039-047-049-051-053-059-063-
065-073-083-085-105-111-121-123-125-129-112040-
PA
. PENNSYLVANIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
Read more
WW 0311 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 311
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 NNE CDJ
TO 35 SW OTM TO 10 SSW OTM TO 35 E OTM TO 20 SSE CID TO 25 NNE
CID TO 25 WSW DBQ TO 40 NW DBQ.
..JIRAK..06/11/26
ATTN...WFO...DMX...DVN...LSX...ILX...EAX...
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 311
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ILC001-009-011-015-057-067-071-073-085-095-109-123-131-143-155-
161-169-175-177-187-195-111640-
IL
. ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ADAMS BROWN BUREAU
CARROLL FULTON HANCOCK
HENDERSON HENRY JO DAVIESS
KNOX MCDONOUGH MARSHALL
MERCER PEORIA PUTNAM
ROCK ISLAND SCHUYLER STARK
STEPHENSON WARREN WHITESIDE
IAC007-031-045-051-057-061-087-097-101-103-105-111-113-115-139-
163-177-179-183-111640-
IA
. IOWA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
APPANOOSE CEDAR CLINTON
DAVIS DES MOINES DUBUQUE
HENRY JACKSON JEFFERSON
Read more
MD 1092 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 312... FOR WEST-CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA...WESTERN NEW YORK...WESTERN MARYLAND...AND NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA
Mesoscale Discussion 1092
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0248 PM CDT Thu Jun 11 2026
Areas affected...west-central Pennsylvania...western New
York...western Maryland...and northern West Virginia
Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 312...
Valid 111948Z - 112145Z
The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 312
continues.
SUMMARY...The severe weather threat continues across WW312,
primarily across portions of southwestern Pennsylvania ahead of a
more organized convective line.
DISCUSSION...Several thunderstorm complexes have developed across
western NY and PA, eastern OH, and northern WV. Some damaging wind
reports have occurred as a result, particularly with the convective
line in southwestern PA. KPBZ sampled around 50 kts around 700 ft
ARL as the line passed at 1900z. Although bulk shear will remain on
the modest side (around 20 kts), it should be sufficient to maintain
more organized thunderstorm complexes as they move eastward into a
region of MLCAPE around 2000+ J/kg. The greatest short-term threat
for severe wind gusts will be in southwestern PA ahead of the
organized convective line.
Strong thunderstorms have also formed in western NY along the
northern periphery of the unstable airmass. Here, bulk shear is
slightly more supportive of discrete rotating updrafts (as evidenced
by some low-level rotation in the cells east of Buffalo, NY as of
1945z) but buoyancy is more limited. A local wind and small hail
threat could persist here with any sustained storm.
Additional convection in the western portions of WW312 may also pose
a short-term severe threat, but should be tempered by cold outflow
(10-15 F deficits) in the wake of the leading convection.
..Flournoy.. 06/11/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...BGM...BUF...CTP...LWX...PBZ...RLX...
LAT...LON 40987991 41597960 42317858 42967749 43157687 42737615
41527733 40067830 39377929 39048002 38988052 39238081
40318013 40987991
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN
Read more
MD 1091 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR THE MID-ATLANTIC INTO SOUTHERN NEW YORK AND SOUTHWESTERN NEW ENGLAND
Mesoscale Discussion 1091
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0202 PM CDT Thu Jun 11 2026
Areas affected...the Mid-Atlantic into southern New York and
southwestern New England
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible
Valid 111902Z - 112100Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent
SUMMARY...Scattered thunderstorm development is expected this
afternoon across the mid-Atlantic northward into southern New York
and southwestern New England. Severe wind gusts and hail are
possible with the strongest storms.
DISCUSSION...Some deeper convective attempts are underway this
afternoon across portions of the mid-Atlantic, particularly in
southern New York as of 1900z. This development is occurring in a
warm, unstable airmass with surface temperatures in the upper 80s
and lower 90s F and MLCAPE values around 2000+ J/kg. The 18z
ALB/Albany, NY sounding sampled the northern periphery of this
airmass (along the CAPE gradient) with 0-6-km shear of 24 kts. This
has supported some sporadic, more organized thunderstorm development
recently.
As the afternoon progresses, diurnal heating should support
additional thunderstorm development across the region. Furthermore,
a mid-level impulse in eastern OH -- influencing the ongoing
convection in WW312 -- will continue moving eastward and should
provide additional support for convective initiation and maturation.
Bulk shear is expected to remain generally in the 15-25 kt range
which, amidst forecast large MLCAPE around 2500-3000 J/kg, will
promote strong updrafts capable of producing wind gusts and hail.
Uncertainty remains as to how much convection will develop and
coalesce/strengthen in the short term, but trends will continue to
be monitored for possible watch issuance this afternoon.
..Flournoy/Gleason.. 06/11/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...AKQ...CTP...LWX...
LAT...LON 39937855 42097738 42657579 42777436 42337326 41237290
40177310 37717495 37397648 37777765 38937842 39937855
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN
Read more
MD 1090 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY FOR SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS...WESTERN MISSOURI...AND NORTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA
Mesoscale Discussion 1090
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0118 PM CDT Thu Jun 11 2026
Areas affected...southeastern Kansas...western Missouri...and
northeastern Oklahoma
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely
Valid 111818Z - 112015Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent
SUMMARY...Increasing thunderstorm coverage is expected this
afternoon along a cold front in southeastern Kansas, western
Missouri, and Oklahoma. Severe wind gusts and some large hail will
be the primary threats.
DISCUSSION...A cold front -- currently draped southwestward from
central IA through northwestern OK -- is expected to serve as a
focus for thunderstorm development this afternoon. As the attendant
1002-mb surface low slides northeastward through IA, the cold front
will continue pushing southeastward and impinge on a destabilizing
warm sector. Per current mesoanalysis and water vapor imagery, a
mid-level jet core is currently located over eastern NE and western
IA, placing the warm sector in the right-entrance quadrant of the
jet. Associated quasi-geostrophic ascent aided by frontal
convergence should promote extensive thunderstorm development this
afternoon across the area.
Visible satellite imagery suggests that any remaining convective
inhibition is waning, driven by temperatures warming into the upper
80s / low 90s F ahead of the front. Some deeper updraft cores are
already evident in northwestern MO, and vertical development is
expected to continue southwestward along the front with time. Large
CAPE (3000+ J/kg), minimal inhibition, and predominantly
line-parallel bulk shear should yield relatively quick upscale
growth. Strong wind gusts and hail are the primary threats with this
activity. Shear profiles are slightly larger and more
line-perpendicular with latitude, so more persistent discrete
structures/supercells may be possible in eastern KS and western MO.
Some tornado threat exists in this area, particularly around
mid-/late-afternoon as low-level SRH increases, but it will be
generally tempered by upscale tendencies. One or more watches will
likely be needed to cover these threats.
..Flournoy/Gleason.. 06/11/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...LSX...SGF...EAX...TSA...TOP...ICT...OUN...
LAT...LON 36459451 34979632 34259817 34269915 34759950 35569917
36509764 37719591 38629502 39559382 39599310 39199265
38549256 38019286 36459451
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-110 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN
Read more
MD 1089 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELY 311... FOR NORTHEAST MISSOURI...SOUTHERN INTO EASTERN IOWA...FAR WESTERN ILLINOIS
Mesoscale Discussion 1089
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0108 PM CDT Thu Jun 11 2026
Areas affected...northeast Missouri...southern into eastern
Iowa...far western Illinois
Concerning...Severe potential...Tornado Watch likely 311...
Valid 111808Z - 112045Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent
SUMMARY...The environment is becoming more favorable for severe
storms with potential for tornadoes, and new/updated tornado watches
are likely over parts of Iowa, Missouri, and Illinois.
DISCUSSION...Recent satellite and surface observations indicate a
modifying/retreating outflow boundary into south-central IA where
winds are now out of the south and with low 70s F dewpoints.
Meanwhile, the synoptic cold front continues to push rapidly east,
along with the shortwave trough. This front is located from central
IA into northwest MO as of 18Z with gusty southwest winds ahead of
it. GPS PWAT is over 1.80" now into southern IA. Low-level shear is
quite favorable for rotating storms near the retreating outflow,
with 0-1 SRH over 200 m2/s2.
Over the next few hours, storms are likely to develop near the cold
front, and perhaps within the warm advection zone near the modifying
outflow boundary. Supercells are expected initially with deep-layer
shear near 55 kt and ample low-level SRH to support rightward cell
propagation relative to the cold front orientation. A few strong
tornadoes will be possible. Damaging winds also are likely as
high-PWAT air mass supports ample downdraft material with any larger
storm clusters or linear modes near the cold front.
..Jewell/Gleason.. 06/11/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...ILX...LSX...DVN...DMX...EAX...
LAT...LON 40359360 40869338 41379301 41469282 41699196 41769157
41699111 41429084 41019079 40589079 40169089 39919133
39899157 39739279 39759326 40119358 40359360
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...140-170 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN
Read more
Public Severe Weather Outlook
PUBLIC SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1130 AM CDT THU JUN 11 2026
...Outbreak of severe thunderstorms expected over parts of the
Midwest and Great Lakes this afternoon and evening...
* LOCATIONS...
Far Eastern Iowa
Northern and Central Illinois
Southern Wisconsin
Northern Indiana
Northern Missouri
Lower Michigan
* HAZARDS...
Widespread damaging winds, some hurricane force
Several tornadoes, a couple intense
Isolated large hail up to baseball size
* SUMMARY...
Widespread severe thunderstorms are expected this afternoon and
evening across parts of the Midwest and Great Lakes region,
including far eastern Iowa, northern Missouri, northern/central
Illinois, southern Wisconsin, Lower Michigan, and northern
Indiana. This includes the potential for widespread/intense
damaging winds (some 75+ mph), large hail, and several
tornadoes, some of which may be strong to intense.
Preparedness actions...
Review your severe weather safety procedures for the possibility
of dangerous weather today. Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio,
weather.gov, or other media for watches and warnings. A watch
means that conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms
over the next several hours. If a severe thunderstorm warning is
issued for your area, move to a place of safety, ideally in an
Read more
SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1122 AM CDT Thu Jun 11 2026
Valid 111630Z - 121200Z
...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
NORTHERN ILLINOIS...FAR EASTERN IOWA...AND FAR SOUTHERN WISCONSIN...
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE MID-ATLANTIC AND CENTRAL APPALACHIANS...
...SUMMARY...
Widespread severe thunderstorms are expected this afternoon and
evening across parts of the Midwest and Great Lakes region,
including far eastern Iowa, northern Missouri, northern/central
Illinois, southern Wisconsin, Lower Michigan, and northern Indiana.
This includes the potential for widespread/intense damaging winds
(some 75+ mph), large hail, and several tornadoes, some of which may
be strong to intense.
...Midwest/Great Lakes...
An active and impactful severe weather event is still expected
across parts of the Midwest Great Lakes later this afternoon and
evening. Ongoing bowing cluster across southeast IA/northwest
IL/southwest WI and vicinity may continue to pose at least some
severe wind and embedded QLCS tornado threat as it continues
east-northeastward across parts of the Midwest this afternoon. There
is still airmass recovery underway ahead of this activity,
especially into central/northern IL, northern IN, and parts of
southern Lower MI where strong heating is occurring. Enhanced
mid-level west-southwesterly winds associated with a potent
shortwave trough over the northern Plains/Upper Midwest will
overspread the developing warm sector this afternoon, and support
organized severe potential, including the possibility of multiple
tornadic supercells and widespread severe/damaging winds.
Even so, greater than usual uncertainty exists regarding
redevelopment later today on the southern/western flank of ongoing
convection across northern IL into northeast MO and vicinity. A
gradual increase in both low-level and deep-layer shear is
anticipated across this area as a 30-40+ kt southerly low-level jet
develops eastward in tandem with the eastward-ejecting shortwave
trough and mid-level jet. A mix of supercells and bowing segments
appears probable as renewed thunderstorms develop along/ahead of the
surface cold front this afternoon in a strongly unstable and rather
favorably sheared environment. If at least semi-discrete supercell
structures can be maintained, then potential exists for several
tornadoes, and multiple strong to intense tornadoes (EF-2/3+) given
the enhanced low-level shear. Isolated large to very large hail may
also occur with any sustained supercells.
Otherwise, numerous to potentially widespread severe/damaging winds
also appear likely through the period across parts of
northern/central IL into southern Lower MI and northern IN. Both the
ongoing cluster and eventual upscale growth of convection that
develops this afternoon will likely produce severe/damaging winds,
some of which could be significant (75+ mph). The northern extent of
the severe risk into WI and northern Lower MI remains uncertain, but
at least some wind and/or tornado threat will likely continue with
eastward extent into the southern Great Lakes and northern IN this
evening.
...Eastern Kansas/Southern Missouri into the Southern Plains...
Additional thunderstorms will likely develop this afternoon and
evening along the trailing cold front into portions of eastern
KS/southern MO into the southern Plains. Stronger deep-layer shear
is forecast to lag behind/to the north of the cold front. Still,
around 20-30 kt of effective bulk shear and moderate to strong
instability will support marginal supercell structures and loosely
organized multicells capable of producing both large hail and
damaging winds. A large component of boundary-parallel shear will
likely lead to clustering and messy convective modes through the
evening before thunderstorms gradually weaken with the loss of
daytime heating.
...Mid-Atlantic/Central Appalachians...
Recent visible satellite imagery across much of the Mid-Atlantic and
central Appalachians shows mostly sunny to partly cloudy conditions,
with ample low-level moisture present per latest surface
observations and area 12Z observed soundings. Large-scale ascent
associated with multiple low-amplitude mid-level shortwave troughs
will likely support the development of widely scattered
thunderstorms by afternoon across parts of the Mid-Atlantic into the
central Appalachians. Though deep-layer shear is forecast to remain
modest, moderate to strong instability will exist with continued
diurnal heating this afternoon. This will support stronger updrafts
capable of scattered severe/damaging winds and perhaps isolated
hail. Multiple clusters should eventually emerge, with potential for
organizing along outflow/cold pools, and more focused corridors of
damaging winds possible across parts of the I-95 corridor from
northern VA to eastern PA and NJ.
..Gleason/Flournoy.. 06/11/2026
Read more
SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1229 PM CDT Thu Jun 11 2026
Valid 121200Z - 131200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS VICINITY INTO THE MID
ATLANTIC...
...SUMMARY...
Clusters of thunderstorms may develop across the Appalachians into
Mid Atlantic Friday afternoon through Friday evening, accompanied by
potential to produce damaging wind gusts.
...Discussion...
Downstream of building mid-level ridging within the mid-latitudes,
offshore of the Pacific coast, it still appears that flow will
remain largely zonal across the northern tier of the interior U.S.
through at least this period, between subtropical ridging centered
over the northern Gulf Basin and a quasi-stationary mid-level low
centered to the southwest of Hudson Bay. Across the Atlantic
Seaboard, it appears that generally modest to weak, though difluent
and splitting, flow will prevail, as the most substantive upstream
short wave perturbations pivot across and to the northwest of the
lower Great Lakes, around the periphery of the low.
In lower levels, a surface cyclone is forecast to migrate
north/northwestward into the Hudson Bay vicinity and occlude Friday
through Friday night, with the trailing cold front advancing
southeastward through much of the Mid Atlantic by 12Z Saturday.
Across the lower Ohio through southern Great Plains Red River
Valleys, the front, initially reinforced by convective outflow, is
forecast to weaken, while a another influx of cooler/drier air
slowly spreads south of the central Canadian/U.S. border vicinity,
through the northern Great Plains/Upper Midwest and adjacent Great
Lakes region.
..Appalachians/Mid Atlantic...
There still appears a general consensus within model output that
seasonably high boundary-layer moisture content will support sizable
potential instability (including CAPE in excess of 2000 J/kg) with
insolation by early Friday afternoon, from portions of the
Cumberland and Allegheny Plateau into the lee of the Blue Ridge and
perhaps Poconos/Catskills. Coincident with at least subtle to weak
mid-level height falls, and modest strengthening of flow in the
700-500 mb layer to 20-30 kt, the environment may become conducive
to the evolution of modestly organizing clusters with potential to
produce swaths of strong to severe wind gusts.
...Southern Rockies and adjacent Great Plains...
Moistening southerly low-level flow, in the presence of steepening
low-level lapse rates with daytime heating, may contribute to
sizable CAPE in excess of 2000 J/kg along/east of the Guadalupe and
Sacramento Mountains, through the Sangre de Cristo Mountains
and Raton Mesa vicinity by early Friday evening. This may become
supportive of scattered thunderstorm development with potential to
produce severe hail and localized strong surface gusts.
Particularly closer to the southern periphery of the westerlies,
near and east of the Raton Mesa, shear may become supportive of an
organizing cluster propagating off the higher terrain, as a
nocturnal low-level jet strengthens Friday evening. It might not be
out of the question that probabilities for severe wind will need to
be increased further across parts of northeastern New Mexico into
southwestern Kansas and the Texas/Oklahoma Panhandle region in later
outlook updates for this period.
..Kerr.. 06/11/2026
Read more
SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0230 PM CDT Thu Jun 11 2026
Valid 131200Z - 141200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY AFTERNOON
INTO SATURDAY NIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS THROUGH
LOWER MISSISOURI VALLEY REGION...
...SUMMARY...
One or two evolving thunderstorm clusters appear possible across
parts of the central Great Plains and lower Missouri Valley vicinity
Saturday afternoon through Saturday night, accompanied by potential
for strong, damaging wind gusts.
...Discussion...
Downstream of amplified mid-level ridging, offshore of the U.S.
Pacific coast through British Columbia, it appears that flow will
begin to veer to an increasing northwesterly component across the
Rockies through Mississippi Valley during this period. Within this
regime, mid-level troughing may sharpen southwest of a lingering
mid-level low centered to the southwest of Hudson Bay, through the
lower Missouri Valley, but this may be comprised of at least a
couple of short wave perturbations, with the details of this
evolution still uncertain.
In lower levels, surges of cooler/drier air will continue to develop
southward through the interior of the U.S., with the general leading
edge reaching the lower Great Lakes through Ohio River, Ozarks
Plateau and Texas South Plains by 12Z Sunday. This may be preceded
by extensive convective development and expanding outflow, to the
west-southwest of a weakening initial frontal zone to the lee of the
southern Appalachians.
...Central Great Plains through lower Missouri Valley...
Lingering uncertainties, including those due to model spread and the
extended time frame, preclude introduction of higher severe
probabilities, at least at this time. However, a consensus of model
output suggests at least conditional potential for the evolution of
an extensive organized convective system, perhaps including one or
two large clusters developing and propagating southeastward across
the central Great Plains/lower Missouri Valley vicinity by late
Saturday afternoon and evening.
In the wake of a weakening preceding front, it appears that
low-level moisture return may contribute to a corridor of large
potential instability, particularly across the central Great Plains
into lower Missouri Valley/Ozark Plateau, to the north of remnant
mid-level subtropical ridging. Beneath a plume of warm elevated
mixed-layer air emanating from the southern high plains, low-level
warm advection near the nose of stronger surface heating and deeper
boundary-layer mixing may provide the focus for the initiation of
strongest convective development. Guidance suggests that this could
occur anywhere from north central Kansas through the lower Missouri
Valley, before growing upscale and propagating south-southeastward
through Saturday night.
It is possible that this will occur in the presence of initially
modest deep-layer mean wind fields and shear. Some strengthening of
flow is possible across the region in association with the approach
of a digging short wave, but much of the strengthening evident in
the various model output is probably related to the
convection/convective feedback. Given the magnitude of the
potential instability, the evolution of strong descending rear
inflow with the evolving convection appears possible, which may be
accompanied by the risk for widespread severe wind gusts.
..Kerr.. 06/11/2026
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SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1034 AM CDT Thu Jun 11 2026
Valid 111700Z - 121200Z
Only minor changes were made to the Elevated area over the central
High Plains today. The latest forecast guidance indicates that
Elevated wind/RH thresholds will be met concurrently farther to the
northwest over portions of south-central WY. Though surface
temperatures will remain slightly below normal today, fuels remain
critically dry (ERCs near the 90th percentile) over this region as a
result of the drying event over the last several days. Given the
lightning activity that occurred last weekend over this specific
area, hold over fires are also not out of the question. Elsewhere
across the nearby central Rockies and portions of the Southwest, the
forecast remains on track with the progression of the cold front
through the region resulting in northeasterly winds across much of
the eastern half of the drawn area this afternoon. Also, northerly
winds on the back side of the trough remain as forecast over the
northern Sacramento Valley. However, expect winds there to slowly
weaken through the afternoon hours as flow aloft becomes more
westerly and less aligned with the valley's orientation.
..Stearns.. 06/11/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1240 AM CDT Thu Jun 11 2026/
...Synopsis...
A compact upper trough will exit the Great Basin region this
afternoon, traversing the High Plains and moving over the Upper
Midwest in the late evening. A surface low will develop
northeastward to the Great Lakes region and send a cold front
southward through the southern Plains. An amplifying upper ridge
over the eastern Pacific will promote warm and dry conditions across
the Interior West, though much lighter winds (compared to previous
days) will bring some relief to the fire environment. However, very
dry fuels will continue to support Elevated fire concerns.
...Four Corners, southern Colorado Rockies and adjacent High
Plains...
As the upper trough and attendant surface low exit the region,
surface troughing over the Four Corners and Colorado Plateau will
support westerly winds up to 15 mph amid 10-15% RH. In the wake of a
cold front, veering north-easterly 15-20 mph winds (gusts up to 30
mph) and RH values of 10-20% will spread across portions of the
southern Rockies and adjacent High Plains. Elevated highlights have
been maintained to account for these conditions where dry fuels
exist. Latest forecast guidance also shows elevated wind/RH
spreading farther east over portions of the central High Plains.
However, recent rainfall and resultant sub-critical fuels preclude
an expansion of highlights. Briefly critical conditions are possible
across northern NM and portions of the CO Plains and gap-flow
regions, but the localized extent and limited duration of stronger
winds precludes critical highlights.
...Sacramento Valley...
Current northerly winds of 10-15 mph will persist with very poor
humidity recoveries (RH values of 20-30% overnight). As an upper
ridge over the eastern Pacific pushes the upper trough eastward,
northwesterly flow aloft will weaken and shift more westerly.
Northerly surface winds will gradually decrease throughout the
afternoon, however fire concerns remain as 10-15% RH lingers into
the evening. An extended burning period and dry fine fuels support
Elevated highlights within the Valley and adjacent foothills.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
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SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0243 PM CDT Thu Jun 11 2026
Valid 121200Z - 131200Z
Slight expansions were made to the larger Elevated area encompassing
the central Rocky Mountains and the surrounding areas of the
southeastern Great Basin and central High Plains. Ahead of the
previously mentioned cold front dropping south through the Great
Plains, southwest/west winds of 10-20 mph will combine with RHs of
5-15% across the NE Panhandle and adjacent portions of eastern and
central WY to support Elevated conditions amid critically dry fuels
(ERCs near the 90-95th percentile). Across southern UT, above normal
temperatures supporting deep boundary layer mixing will also
contribute to slightly stronger westerly winds of 10-20 mph amid the
dry surface RHs of 5-10%. This will also support expanded Elevated
fire weather conditions farther west of the previously drawn area.
Across the Snake River Plain of ID, Elevated conditions remain on
track as previously forecast.
..Stearns.. 06/11/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1241 AM CDT Thu Jun 11 2026/
...Synopsis...
As ridging builds over the Pacific Northwest, broad upper-level
troughing will extend across the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes
regions. A shortwave trough will move into the northern Rockies
Friday afternoon with increasing mid-level westerly flow ushering
low RH and gusty winds through the Snake River Plain. Enhanced zonal
flow over the CO Rockies and south-central WY will promote gusty
winds and downslope drying amid warm daytime temperatures,
continuing a broader fire weather threat where fuels approach
critical thresholds.
...Upper Colorado River Basin, Central Rockies, and southern
Wyoming...
Strong upper-level winds will overspread the region on Friday
afternoon, encouraging continued dry and breezy conditions while
surface temperatures rise 10+ degrees above normal under the
influence of high pressure. Sustained westerly winds of up to 15 mph
and 10-15% RH are expected to overlap a drying fuelscape, thus
Elevated highlights have been introduced. Localized critical
conditions (less than 10% RH and 15-20 mph winds) are possible
across portions of northeastern UT and southern WY. However, sparse
fuels preclude critical highlights, though an upgrade may be
considered in future outlook cycles.
...Snake River Plain...
Ahead of an approaching cold front, sustained westerly winds of
10-20 mph will combine with 10-15% RH (locally lower) in the Snake
River Plain, supportive of Elevated highlights. Weeks of dry, windy
conditions and minimal precipitation has inflicted curing of fuels
across the region, enhancing fire weather concerns as ERCs approach
the 80th-90th percentile on Friday.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
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