RSS Mesoscale Discussions from Storm Prediction Center
No watches are valid as of Thu Jul 23 01:04:02 UTC 2026.
MD 1713 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR NORTHEAST COLORADO
Mesoscale Discussion 1713
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0643 PM CDT Wed Jul 22 2026
Areas affected...northeast Colorado
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 222343Z - 230145Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent
SUMMARY...The potential for a few severe wind gusts is expected to
increase across the discussion area this evening. The areal coverage
of the threat is expected to remain too limited to warrant a watch
issuance.
DISCUSSION...Recent radar trends indicate thunderstorms gradually
increasing in areal coverage across portions of Lincoln and Kit
Carson Counties, to the north of a stalled front. The storms are
developing within the western edge of a more moist and unstable
boundary layer (i.e., MLCAPE up to 1000-2000 J/kg), and within a
zone of stronger east to southeast surface winds. Aided by a gust
front approaching from the west, latest CAM guidance suggests the
potential for upscale growth into a loosely organized complex or
line by 01-02Z.
The current KGLD VWP is sampling a 1-km deep layer of southeast
winds, which will enhance storm-relative inflow into the developing
storms. When coupled with steep low/mid-level lapse rates and
boundary-layer temperature-dewpoint spreads of 30+ degrees, the
setup appears supportive of a few severe wind gusts this evening.
..Mead/Mosier.. 07/22/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...GLD...BOU...
LAT...LON 39160355 39870376 40620387 40970359 40870269 39790245
39030262 38870309 39160355
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
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SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0800 PM CDT Wed Jul 22 2026
Valid 230100Z - 231200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE MID-ATLANTIC...MIDDLE TEXAS COAST...THE CENTRAL HIGH
PLAINS...AND CENTRAL OREGON...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated to widely scattered storms remain possible across the
Carolinas and southern Mid-Atlantic tonight, with damaging winds
being the primary concern. Isolated strong to severe wind gusts
remain possible in the central High Plains, Middle Texas Coast, and
central Oregon, where isolated hail will also be possible.
...Mid-Atlantic...
Disorganized/weak thunderstorms are ongoing within a pre-frontal
confluence zone extending from southeastern VA into western/central
NC. Over the next several hours, a southwesterly low-level jet will
strengthen to around 30 kt in advance of an approaching cold front.
Increasing convergence/low-level ascent and a warm/moist PBL (as
sampled by the MHX 00Z sounding) may support a modest uptick in
thunderstorm strength over the next several hours. Around 30 kt of
effective shear could promote loosely organized clusters, with the
primary concern being locally damaging wind gusts.
...Middle Texas Coast...
An organized cluster of storms with a history of producing severe
wind gusts is tracking southwestward along the Middle TX Coast. The
main severe risk will be associated with this activity as it
continues southwestward over the next few hours, given a very
moist/diurnally destabilized downstream air mass (lower 90s
temperatures amid lower 80s dewpoints) and around 30 kt of
northeasterly deep-layer shear (per the HGX VWP).
...Central High Plains...
In northeast CO, thunderstorm clusters are evolving
east-northeastward into a plume of increasingly rich PBL moisture
(upper 50s to lower 60s dewpoints) and a belt of modestly enhanced
low/deep-layer shear along the northeastern periphery of a
large-scale ridge. This environment will continue to promote loosely
organized clusters capable of producing severe wind gusts. For more
details, see MCD #1713.
...Central Oregon...
A few loosely organized cells and clusters will continue tracking
northward across parts of central OR, where a belt of 30-kt midlevel
flow and a weakly unstable air mass will support isolated severe
wind gusts and hail with the stronger cores.
..Weinman.. 07/23/2026
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SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0443 PM CDT Wed Jul 22 2026
Valid 241200Z - 301200Z
Upper-level troughing will develop over the Pacific Northwest into
the northern Rockies late this week through the weekend. Mid-level
southwest-westerly flow of 30-60 knots will overspread the region
with a tightening onshore pressure gradient and lee troughing east
of the Cascades and northern Rockies. The Four Corners High will
likely slowly shift east-southeast towards the southern High Plains,
with daily monsoonal thunderstorms remaining likely across the
greater Four Corners region into early next week.
...Northwestern US...
Overall, a critical fire weather pattern will continue to unfold
through the weekend across the northwestern US with lightning
followed by hot, dry, and windy conditions. Elevated to critical
fire weather conditions are expected across the Inland Northwest,
northwest Great Basin, and extending through northern Montana Day
3/Friday as west-southwest winds strengthen amid a drying and
warming airmass. Critical winds/RH are likely to develop across
portions of north-central and northeast Montana, but this will
likely act more as a curing event.
Winds will strengthen on Day 4/Saturday across the Inland Northwest
and into northwest Montana, with critical conditions expected again
here and from south-central/southeast Oregon extending into
northeast California, northwest Nevada, and southwest Idaho.
Isolated to scattered mixed wet/dry thunderstorms are likely in
portions of central Montana on Day 4/Saturday, but there remains too
much uncertainty regarding the overlap of receptive fuels and drier
thunderstorm development to include dry thunderstorm probabilities
at this time. However, dry and breezy conditions are likely across
portions of western/central Montana Day 4/Saturday.
Dry and breezy conditions will continue from the northwest Great
Basin through central/southern Idaho into Montana on Day 5/Sunday
and possibly Day 6/Monday. There remains forecast uncertainty
regarding lingering dry and breezy conditions across portions of the
Inland Northwest, and the likelihood of critical conditions in
portions of the northwest Great Basin and northern Montana. Much of
this depends on the evolution of the upper-level troughing over the
northwest US. Another source of forecast uncertainty is how areas
that currently have less receptive fuels in portions of northeast
Nevada, central/eastern Idaho, and southwest Montana will respond to
multiple consecutive days of hot, dry, and breezy conditions.
...Plains...
Hot, dry, and breezy conditions will likely develop across portions
of the Plains during the outlook period. Fuels, especially fine
fuels, will begin to cure and perhaps rapidly. How this pattern
affects these areas will continued to be monitored.
..Nauslar.. 07/22/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
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