RSS Mesoscale Discussions from Storm Prediction Center
No watches are valid as of Mon Apr 6 16:38:02 UTC 2026.
No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Mon Apr 6 16:38:02 UTC 2026.
SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0748 AM CDT Mon Apr 06 2026
Valid 061300Z - 071200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected today across the
Florida Peninsula, and portions of the Four Corners, northern
Rockies, and eastern Great Lakes. While a few strong storms may
occur across the central/southern Florida Peninsula, organized
severe potential is expected to remain low.
...Synopsis...
The East will remain influenced by longwave troughing, while
westerly quasi-zonal upper flow prevails elsewhere. Much of the
northern, central, and eastern CONUS will be dominated by surface
high pressure while surface lee troughing, with dry low-level
trajectories, takes place over the southern High Plains.
Thunderstorms are expected mainly this afternoon across the Florida
Peninsula. A few embedded mid-level impulses, accompanied by cooler
temperatures aloft, will foster enough lift amid scant buoyancy to
encourage a few lightning flashes across the northern Rockies, Four
Corners region, and the eastern Great Lakes today.
...Central/southern Florida Peninsula...
Ample insolation/heating should occur today along and south of the
slow-southward progressing front. This heating combined with
easterly low-level winds should focus convergence and scattered
thunderstorm development this afternoon across the interior
peninsula. With the upstream shortwave trough not influencing the
region until later tonight, mid-level lapse rates will remain
relatively poor with weak deep-layer shear. Regardless, steepening
low-level lapse rates should lead to increasing storm coverage and
intensity this afternoon, particularly across the interior, and a
few of these pulse-type storms could produce strong
downburst-related gusty winds. However, it currently appears that
severe-caliber wind gust potential will remain limited given the
marginality of the overall scenario.
..Guyer/Weinman.. 04/06/2026
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SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1116 AM CDT Mon Apr 06 2026
Valid 061630Z - 071200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected today across the
Florida Peninsula and portions of the Southwest, Pacific Northwest,
and eastern Great Lakes. While a few strong storms may occur across
the central/southern Florida Peninsula, organized severe potential
should remain low.
...Synopsis and Discussion...
Mean longwave troughing will remain over the eastern COUNS today,
while a weak mid-level shortwave trough advances eastward across the
Gulf towards the FL Peninsula by late tonight. At the surface, high
pressure centered over the southern Plains to TN/OH Valleys will
maintain offshore low-level trajectories and limited low-level
moisture over a large majority of the CONUS. Still, isolated
lightning flashes may occur today across parts of the eastern Great
Lakes, Southwest, and Pacific Northwest in association with weak
mid-level perturbations amid the presence of sufficient MUCAPE and
modest lift.
Greater low-level moisture (mid 60s to low 70s surface dewpoints)
will remain confined along/south of a cold front draped across the
central FL Peninsula. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are
expected to develop this afternoon across central/south FL as
daytime heating erodes lingering MLCIN, especially across interior
areas. With the low-amplitude shortwave trough remaining well to the
west over the Gulf through the day, weak low/mid-level winds and
meager deep-layer shear over land will likely limit updraft
organization and severe potential. Still, occasional strong/gusty
downburst winds may occur with the more robust cores as low-level
lapse rates become steepened with continued diurnal heating.
..Gleason/Wendt.. 04/06/2026
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SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1135 AM CDT Mon Apr 06 2026
Valid 071200Z - 081200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected on Tuesday across
parts of the Florida Peninsula, the southern Rockies, and northern
High Plains. No severe threat is forecast across the U.S. Tuesday
and Tuesday night.
...Synopsis...
Strong surface high pressure over the Great Lakes and a cold front
oriented across north-central FL into the Gulf will result in a
mostly dry/stable boundary layer east of the Rockies. Ahead of the
front across parts of the FL Peninsula, a seasonally moist and
weakly unstable airmass will be in place. Isolated to scattered
thunderstorms will be possible across the central/southern FL
Peninsula and the Keys, though modest vertical shear and poor lapse
rates will preclude severe thunderstorm potential.
Additional isolated to scattered storms are possible across portions
of the Four Corners and southern Rockies vicinity. Midlevel
moistening amid steep lapse rates will support weak destabilization
as an upper shortwave trough moves across the region. This should
support weak thunderstorm activity, though severe storms are not
expected. Further north, another upper shortwave trough will move
across the northern Rockies to the northern High Plains. While
moisture will be limited (PW values generally less than .75 in), a
few high-based thunderstorms will be possible across eastern MT and
vicinity as steep midlevel lapse rates and cold temperatures aloft
foster weak destabilization. Inverted-v sub-cloud thermodynamic
profiles may support locally gusty winds, but severe convection is
not expected.
..Leitman.. 04/06/2026
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SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1040 AM CDT Mon Apr 06 2026
Valid 061700Z - 071200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN
HIGH PLAINS...
Subtle expansions were made to the northeast corners of both the
Critical and Elevated areas. This was done in agreement with the
latest forecast guidance allowing for drier surface conditions to
advect slightly farther north and east ahead of the approaching cold
front. As of late morning, surface observations are already showing
sustained southwest winds of 15-25 mph with RHs dropping below 30%.
The frontal boundary, and associated change in wind direction from
south-southwest to northeast, is currently forecast to move south
through west-central Kansas and into the drawn areas around 8pm this
evening. Almost all of the highlighted area is expected to drop
below elevated criteria before the front becomes nearly stationary
near the Colorado/Oklahoma border late tonight.
..Stearns.. 04/06/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0213 AM CDT Mon Apr 06 2026/
...Synopsis...
Upper-level ridging over the West will begin to dampen today ahead
of an incoming mid-level trough shifting into the Pacific Northwest
and as a second, more subtle, mid-level shortwave trough traverses
eastward over the Southwest. Concurrently, longwave troughing will
persist across the Northeast, with a cold front progressing slowly
southward across the central Great Plains and Midwest.
...Portions of the central/southern High Plains...
Surface high pressure across the southern Great Plains in tandem
with a surface low forecast to strengthen over eastern Colorado will
promote a tightened pressure gradient across portions of the
central/southern High Plains today. Sustained south-southwesterly
surface winds of 20-25 mph are forecast to overlap very low RH of
10-15% for several hours this afternoon. With dry conditions across
the region on Sunday helping to further pre-condition already
receptive fuels, this combination of wind/RH is expected to support
Critical fire weather conditions across the western Oklahoma
Panhandle, northern Texas Panhandle, northeastern New Mexico,
southeastern Colorado, and southwestern Kansas. Meanwhile, sustained
15-20 mph surface winds overlapping low RH of 15-20% will promote
elevated fire weather concerns across adjacent areas of the
central/southern High Plains.
Latest guidance consensus continues to suggest that the
aforementioned, slow-moving cold front will approach the northern
portions of the drawn area after sunset before becoming largely
stationary. Areas that do see the passage of the cold front can
expect a shift to east-northeasterly winds and at least some
increase in relative humidity. The progression of this front will be
closely monitored with future outlook issuances.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
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