RSS Mesoscale Discussions from Storm Prediction Center
No watches are valid as of Thu Mar 5 08:30:02 UTC 2026.
No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Thu Mar 5 08:30:02 UTC 2026.
SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1158 PM CST Wed Mar 04 2026
Valid 051200Z - 061200Z
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE
EASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE INTO WESTERN OKLAHOMA...
...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe storms are expected from northwest Texas and the
Texas Panhandle into western Oklahoma and southern Kansas. Large
hail, a few tornadoes and damaging winds will all be possible within
this corridor.
...Synopsis...
An upper trough will move across the Great Basin and toward the
Rockies, with increasing southwest flow aloft spreading over the
Plains. At the surface, low pressure will develop over eastern CO
during the day, and will move into KS through Friday morning. A
stationary front extending from northwest TX into southern MO will
become a warm front as southerly surface winds increase throughout
the period. Low 60s F dewpoints will move across OK and into the
eastern TX Panhandle during the day, and along I-35 into KS
overnight. Moderate instability is expected to develop from western
TX into OK and southern KS, with increasing shear profiles late in
the day. This will likely lead to a compact area of severe storms,
particularly from the TX Panhandle/South Plains into western OK late
in the day and into the evening.
...TX Panhandle/northwest TX into western OK and southern KS...
Moisture and instability will gradually build during the day as the
warm front pushes through during the afternoon. There is some
concern about the degree of capping, especially across eastern
areas. However, it appears heating will be sufficient to instigate a
few supercells, developing by late afternoon across the eastern TX
Panhandle and perhaps portions of the South Plains or northwest TX.
Steep lapse rates aloft along with veering winds with height will
clearly support supercell mode initially, with very large hail and
tornado potential. These cells, or a developing cluster, will likely
continue into the evening across much of western OK and perhaps
toward southern KS by late evening. By that time, shear will be
quite strong, and may support significant bowing structures.
...Northern KS...NE...IA...
After dry conditions for much of the day, thunderstorms will develop
overnight as low-level theta-e rapidly spreads north due to a 60 kt
low-level jet. Forecast soundings indicate substantial elevated CAPE
developing after 03Z, north of a warm front. Deep-layer shear within
the cloud-bearing layer also appears favorable for sustained cells,
and a few storms could produce hail.
...Western FL Peninsula...
Beneath an upper high and within an easterly low-level flow regime,
strong heating will occur, with dewpoints dropping into the mid 60s
F. Despite the upper high, midlevel temperatures will be relatively
cool. Scattered storms appear probable along the western Peninsula
during the afternoon where convergence will be maximized. Locally
strong wind gusts will be possible, though severe storms are not
currently forecast.
..Jewell/Chalmers.. 03/05/2026
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SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook CORR 2
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0113 AM CST Thu Mar 05 2026
Valid 061200Z - 071200Z
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE LOWER TO MID MISSOURI
VALLEY...
CORRECTED FOR TEXT
...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected from late afternoon
Friday through Friday night across parts of the central and southern
Plains northeastward into the mid to upper Mississippi Valley. The
greatest potential for tornadoes, large to very large hail, and
damaging winds is across eastern parts of Kansas and Oklahoma into
western Missouri.
...Southern and Central Plains/Lower Missouri Valley...
A strong upper-level system over the Desert Southwest, and an
associated jet streak will eject northeastward across the central
U.S. on Friday. At the surface, a moist airmass with surface
dewpoints in the lower to mid 60s F will spread northward from the
southern Plains into the eastern part of the central Plains and into
the lower Missouri Valley. As surface temperatures warm on Friday,
moderate instability will develop across most of the moist sector.
During the day, a cold front will advance southeastward into central
Kansas as a dryline sharpens over west-central Oklahoma. To the east
of these surface features, convective initiation is expected along a
north-to-south corridor from northeast Kansas south-southwestward
along the I-35 corridor into south-central Oklahoma. A significant
severe weather event appears likely across the southern and central
Plains into the lower Missouri Valley Friday afternoon and evening.
Additional more isolated storms are expected to form near the Red
River southward across north-central Texas into the Texas Hill
Country. These storms will move eastward toward the western Ozarks
and Ark-La-Tex during the evening.
A 70 to 90 knot mid-level jet will eject northeastward into the
central Plains on Friday. The latest forecasts from the ECMWF have
the jet coming through west-central Kansas positioned a bit further
southeast. This will be a favorable location for a severe weather
event across Oklahoma, Kansas and Missouri. NAM forecast soundings
from Wichita to Oklahoma City in the late afternoon have 40 to 50
knots of 0-6 km shear with 700-500 mb lapse rates approaching 8
C/km. In addition, strong low-level shear is forecast with curved
hodographs. This environment will be favorable for supercells with
tornadoes, large hail and damaging wind gusts. The more dominant
supercells should be capable of producing 2 inch diameter
hailstones. Hailstones around 3 inches in diameter will be possible
with the most intense supercells. In the early evening, 0-3 km
storm-relative helicity is forecast to increase into the 300 to 450
m2/s2 range, which will support a potential for strong tornadoes. As
storm coverage expands in the mid to late evening, a severe line
segment is expected to develop and move into the western Ozarks.
Tornadoes and severe wind gusts will be possible with rotating cells
embedded in the line and with bowing line segments.
Further south into north-central Texas and the Texas Hill Country, a
severe threat is expected during the afternoon and evening.
Large-scale forcing will be more limited which will keep the storms
more widely spaced. Forecast soundings in the late afternoon from
Dallas/Worth southward into the Texas Hill Country have MLCAPE
generally from 1500 to 2000 J/kg with 0-6km shear around 35 knots.
700-500 mb lapse rates are forecast to be near 7.5 C/km. This should
support supercells with potential for large to very large hail and
isolated severe wind gusts. The potential for tornadoes should be
greatest in north-central Texas, where low-level shear will be
stronger.
...Mid to Upper Mississippi Valley/Southwestern Great Lakes...
An upper-level trough will eject northeastward across the central
U.S. on Friday afternoon and evening. Strong moisture advection will
take place ahead of the system from the mid to upper Mississippi
Valley into the southwestern Great Lakes. Surface heating during the
day will result in weak instability across much of the region with
scattered thunderstorms developing. Some of the cells could be
associated with an isolated severe threat. However, the greater
severe threat is expected to develop in the mid to late evening, as
an 70 to 90 knot mid-level jet moves into the region. With this
feature, strong large-scale ascent will likely result in multiple
organized line segments. The more intense components of these lines
should have a potential for severe wind gusts. An isolated tornado
threat will also be possible.
..Broyles.. 03/05/2026
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SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0228 AM CST Thu Mar 05 2026
Valid 071200Z - 081200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE TEXAS COASTAL PLAIN AND IN THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY...
...SUMMARY...
Severe storms will be possible on Saturday from the Texas Coastal
Plain into western Louisiana, and in the Ohio Valley/Lower Great
Lakes. Wind damage will be the primary threat, except in parts of
Texas where isolated large hail could also occur. A marginal severe
threat will also be possible across the Southeast and Tennessee
Valley.
...Texas Coastal Plain/Western Louisiana...
Mid-level west-southwesterly flow will be in place from the
south-central U.S. to the Eastern Seaboard on Saturday. At the
surface, a cold front will move southeastward into the Texas Coastal
Plains and Ark-La-Tex by afternoon. Surface dewpoints ahead of the
front will be in the 60s F, contributing to moderate instability by
midday. Thunderstorms are expected to form along the front early in
the day and steadily increase in coverage. A large complex of storms
is forecast to move southeastward across the Texas Coastal Plain and
the Sabine River Valley during the afternoon and evening. Model
forecasts suggest that 0-6 km shear will generally range from 30 to
35 knots, and that lapse rates will be steep in the low-levels. This
should be favorable for a wind-damage threat with intense line
segments that form ahead of the front. A few supercells with large
hail and wind damage may also develop further southwest into the
southern Texas Hill Country, where forecast soundings have stronger
deep-layer shear. During the evening, the severe threat should move
offshore from the middle and upper Texas into the Gulf.
...Ohio and Tennessee Valleys/Southern and Central Appalachians...
At mid-levels on Saturday, a shortwave trough will move eastward
across the north-central U.S., as an associated jet streak
translates through the Great Lakes. At the surface, a front will
advance eastward across the mid Mississippi and Ohio Valleys. Ahead
of the front, surface dewpoints will range from the 60s F in the
Ohio and Tennessee Valleys, to the 50s F in the southern and central
Appalachians. Weak instability is forecast to develop in most areas
ahead of the front by afternoon. Forecast soundings in the upper
Ohio Valley show very strong wind fields, with 30 to 40 knots of
southwesterly flow just above the surface. This will contribute to a
wind-damage threat with short line segments that form ahead of the
front in the afternoon. The greatest wind-damage threat will likely
be in the late afternoon as a low-level jet consolidates and
strengthens across the upper Ohio Valley.
..Broyles.. 03/05/2026
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SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1239 AM CST Thu Mar 05 2026
Valid 051200Z - 061200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR EASTERN/CENTRAL NEW
MEXICO...SOUTHEAST COLORADO...AND THE EXTREME WESTERN OKLAHOMA
PANHANDLE...
...Synopsis...
A deepening upper-level trough will dig southeastward into the Four
Corners through today, with associated lee surface cyclogenesis
across the central High Plains. This surface cyclone will shift
southeastward through the period, with a trailing dryline across the
southern/central High Plains. Strong southwesterly surface winds and
very low RH behind this dryline will support widespread elevated to
critical fire weather conditions across portions of the central and
southern High Plains.
...Eastern/central New Mexico into southeastern Colorado and the
extreme western Oklahoma Panhandle...
As the aforementioned upper-level trough digs into the Four Corners
through today, a surface cyclone will deepen in the lee of the
central Rockies before shifting southeastward. In response to the
deepening cyclone, a tightening surface pressure gradient behind a
sharpening dryline will promote dry, southwesterly downslope flow
across much of the central/southern High Plains. Critical fire
weather conditions are expected across much of eastern/central New
Mexico into southeastern Colorado and the extreme western Oklahoma
Panhandle where the best overlap of stronger sustained surface winds
(20-25 mph), very low RH values (5-15%), and receptive fuels is
expected. Sporadic wind gusts of 35-45 mph will also be possible,
with the greatest potential across a corridor from east-central New
Mexico northeastward to southeastern Colorado where a 40-50 kt 700
mb jet max will overlap a deep, well-mixed boundary layer.
Elsewhere across the central/southern High Plains and Southwest,
sustained westerly to southwesterly surface winds of 15-20 mph will
overlap low RH of 10-20%, supporting elevated fire weather
conditions from southeastern Colorado/western Kansas southward into
West Texas and southeastern Arizona. There remains some uncertainty
regarding the eastern extent of the elevated/critical fire weather
conditions due to the placement/movement of the dryline. This will
continue to be monitored for any adjustments.
Some consideration was given to a potential dry thunderstorm threat,
primarily in the vicinity of the western Texas/Oklahoma Panhandles;
however, the potential for convective initiation to occur farther
west and overlap areas of elevated to critical fire weather concerns
appears low at this time.
..Chalmers/Lyons.. 03/05/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
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SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0215 AM CST Thu Mar 05 2026
Valid 061200Z - 071200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN NEW MEXICO
INTO WESTERN TEXAS AND THE TEXAS/OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES...
...Synopsis...
Split mid-level flow will develop over the CONUS through D2/Friday
as an upper-level shortwave trough centered over the Four Corners
ejects northeastward across the central Great Plains while a cutoff
low develops over Arizona. At the surface, strong westerly to
southwesterly downslope winds and very low RH values behind an
eastward progressing dryline will support elevated to critical fire
weather conditions across portions of the southern High Plains. A
strong cold front will then progresses southward late in the period.
...Portions of eastern New Mexico into west Texas and the
Texas/Oklahoma Panhandles...
Mid-level southwesterly flow will strengthen as a shortwave trough
ejects northeastward across the central Great Plains on Friday. This
strong mid-level flow aided by a lee surface cyclone will contribute
to 20-25 mph sustained southwesterly surface winds, with occasional
gusts to 30-40 mph. These strong winds will overlap very low RH
values of 10-15% behind an eastward progressing dryline, yielding
critical fire weather conditions for portions of West Texas, eastern
New Mexico, and the Texas/Oklahoma Panhandles. Elsewhere across the
southern High Plains, sustained southwesterly surface winds of 15-20
mph will overlap very low RH values of 10-20%, supporting elevated
fire weather conditions across much of west Texas northward to
southeastern Colorado/southwestern Kansas. A cold front will then
move southward late in the period, bringing cooler temperatures,
increased RH, and a sharp shift to northerly surface winds.
There remains some uncertainty regarding the eastern and northern
extents of elevated/critical fire weather conditions due to the
placement/movement of the dryline as well as the southward
progression of the cold front, respectively. Additionally,
convection forecast along the dryline across portions of the Texas
Panhandle today may bring significant rain to some areas that could
reduce fire weather concerns. However, an eastward expansion of
Elevated/Critical highlights may be needed for areas that do not see
significant rainfall.
..Chalmers/Lyons.. 03/05/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
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