RSS Mesoscale Discussions from Storm Prediction Center
WW 30 SEVERE TSTM AL GA 092100Z - 100300Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 30
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
400 PM CDT Mon Mar 9 2026
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of
Central and northern Alabama
Extreme northwest and west central Georgia
* Effective this Monday afternoon and evening from 400 PM until
1000 PM CDT.
* Primary threats include...
Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2
inches in diameter possible
Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible
A tornado or two possible
SUMMARY...Clusters of storms will spread eastward from Mississippi
into Alabama through late evening, and eventually reach northwest
Georgia. Storm mode will be complicated with a mix of clusters and
some embedded supercells with attendant threats of occasional wind
damage, large hail, and a tornado or two.
The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 70
statute miles north and south of a line from 55 miles southwest of
Muscle Shoals AL to 45 miles east northeast of Anniston AL. For a
complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline
update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU0).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.
&&
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 29...
AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A
few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector
28035.
...Thompson
Read more
WW 29 SEVERE TSTM AR LA MS TN 091755Z - 100000Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 29
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1255 PM CDT Mon Mar 9 2026
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of
Extreme southeast Arkansas
Extreme northeast Louisiana
Northern Mississippi
Southern part of western Tennessee
* Effective this Monday afternoon and evening from 1255 PM until
700 PM CDT.
* Primary threats include...
Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2
inches in diameter possible
Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible
A tornado or two possible
SUMMARY...Clusters of storms will spread eastward from Arkansas into
Tennessee and northern Mississippi, with an expected increase in the
threat for wind damage and large hail through the afternoon.
Additional, more isolated storm development is expected across the
Ark-La-Miss, where a couple of supercells will be possible. Storm
interactions across the watch area could support an isolated tornado
or two.
The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 85
statute miles north and south of a line from 55 miles north of
Greenville MS to 35 miles east southeast of Tupelo MS. For a
complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline
update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU9).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.
&&
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 28...
AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A
few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector
27035.
...Thompson
Read more
WW 0030 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 30
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..JEWELL..03/09/26
ATTN...WFO...BMX...HUN...FFC...
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 30
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ALC007-009-015-017-019-021-027-029-033-037-043-049-055-057-059-
071-073-075-077-079-083-089-093-095-103-107-111-115-117-121-123-
125-127-133-092340-
AL
. ALABAMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BIBB BLOUNT CALHOUN
CHAMBERS CHEROKEE CHILTON
CLAY CLEBURNE COLBERT
COOSA CULLMAN DEKALB
ETOWAH FAYETTE FRANKLIN
JACKSON JEFFERSON LAMAR
LAUDERDALE LAWRENCE LIMESTONE
MADISON MARION MARSHALL
MORGAN PICKENS RANDOLPH
ST. CLAIR SHELBY TALLADEGA
TALLAPOOSA TUSCALOOSA WALKER
WINSTON
GAC045-055-083-115-143-149-233-285-295-092340-
GA
. GEORGIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
Read more
WW 0029 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 29
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SSE LLQ
TO 10 E GLH TO 5 NW GWO TO 30 SSW UOX TO 5 SSW UOX TO 40 NNE TUP
TO 30 NNW MSL.
..JEWELL..03/09/26
ATTN...WFO...JAN...MEG...
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 29
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ARC003-017-092340-
AR
. ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ASHLEY CHICOT
LAC025-029-035-041-065-067-083-107-123-092340-
LA
. LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE
CATAHOULA CONCORDIA EAST CARROLL
FRANKLIN MADISON MOREHOUSE
RICHLAND TENSAS WEST CARROLL
MSC001-007-013-015-017-019-021-025-029-037-043-049-051-053-055-
057-063-071-077-079-081-083-085-087-089-095-097-099-103-105-115-
117-121-123-125-127-133-141-145-149-151-155-159-161-163-
092340-
MS
Read more
WW 0028 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 28
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SSW LLQ
TO 15 WSW LLQ TO 15 NNE LLQ TO 45 N GLH.
WW 28 WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 092000Z.
..CHALMERS..03/09/26
ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 28
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ARC041-043-092000-
AR
. ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
DESHA DREW
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
Read more
MD 0182 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 29...30... FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI AND ALABAMA INTO NORTHWESTERN GEORGIA.
Mesoscale Discussion 0182
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0605 PM CDT Mon Mar 09 2026
Areas affected...portions of northern Mississippi and Alabama into
northwestern Georgia.
Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 29...30...
Valid 092305Z - 100030Z
The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 29, 30
continues.
SUMMARY...A loosely organized convective complex may gradually
consolidate as it tracks eastward over the next few hours with a
continued severe risk. A few stronger embedded cells will likely
pose the main threat in the short term.
DISCUSSION...As of 2300 UTC, regional mesoanalysis showed a broad
cluster of thunderstorms ongoing from northern MS into AL. So far
the cluster has remained loosely organized, but with subtle
intensification trend noted with numerous storms ongoing within a
broad corridor of low-level warm air advection ahead of a subtle
shortwave trough. A few stronger embedded supercells have also
emerged early this evening across northern MS and AL within moderate
buoyancy (MLCAPE 1000-1500 J/kg) and favorable deep-layer shear for
organized storms including supercells or organized multi cells. In
the short term, the severe potential appears highest with these
storms in the form of damaging gusts, hail and possibly a brief
tornado. With time, the cluster may consolidate into a more
organized cluster/bowing segment with severe potential expected to
continue eastward across AL into northern GA, possibly associated
with a weak developing MCV within the broader thunderstorm cluster.
In addition to the recent mesoanalysis trends, recent CAM guidance
also shows the potential for upscale growth of the complex into a
loosely organized MCS or bowing cluster across northeastern AL into
Northwestern GA later this evening. While buoyancy will decrease
with eastward extent, dry low and mid-levels could support stronger
downdrafts with damaging gusts should a more organized bowing system
develop. Given this, the severe weather threat appears likely to
continue over much of WW29 and WW30 this evening. WW30 may be
locally extended in area over western GA to account for the
continued risk of damaging winds later this evening.
..Lyons/Hart.. 03/09/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...FFC...BMX...HUN...MEG...JAN...
LAT...LON 34658755 34988668 34888528 34638462 34418421 34008404
33028424 32768466 32678569 32898730 33078852 33478955
33568972 33948969 34118948 34318934 34518869 34578808
34658755
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN
Read more
SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0239 PM CDT Mon Mar 09 2026
Valid 092000Z - 101200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF
ARKANSAS EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD INTO WESTERN AND CENTRAL ALABAMA...
...SUMMARY...
Large hail, damaging winds and a couple of tornadoes are possible
this afternoon/evening from the Mid-South into northwest Georgia.
...20Z Update...
Two changes have been made to the outlook for this issuance. The
first change is to trim southeast Oklahoma mostly out of thunder,
and completely out of the hail and wind probabilities. The second
change is to add thunder across parts of South Carolina and Georgia.
..Broyles.. 03/09/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1130 AM CDT Mon Mar 09 2026/
...AR to north GA this afternoon/evening...
A weak mid-upper speed max is cresting the larger-scale ridge and
will move from AR to the TN Valley this afternoon/evening.
Associated/ongoing convection across AR will likely persist through
the afternoon with some tendency for upscale growth, while spreading
eastward along the northern gradient of boundary-layer dewpoints in
the low-mid 60s. Surface heating in cloud breaks, beneath the
eastern extent of 7-8 C/km midlevel lapse rates, will contribute to
moderate buoyancy (MLCAPE of 1000-1500 J/kg) along this corridor
with minimal convective inhibition.
Deep-layer vertical shear will be sufficient for a somewhat
organized/bowing storm cluster to evolve from the ongoing AR storms
as they spread across the TN Valley this afternoon, potentially
reaching northwest GA by late evening. The initial storms in the
cluster will pose a threat for large hail (1-2"diameter), with some
increase in the threat for wind damage from northern MS across
northern AL/northwest GA. More discrete storms will be possible
immediately south of the MCS path this afternoon/evening as a
maritime tropical air mass (68-72 F dewpoints) spreads inland. Wind
profiles will support supercells capable of producing large hail
(some could exceed 2 inches in diameter). A modest increase in
low-level shear this afternoon, combined with rich low-level
moisture and the possibility of lingering convective outflow from
the ongoing storms in AR will also support the potential for a
couple of tornadoes.
Isolated thunderstorm development may also occur farther southwest
along the marine warm front into southeast TX, where there is a
conditional threat for large hail.
...Southern AZ this afternoon/evening...
High-based, low-topped convection is expected in the band of ascent
immediately north-northeast of the closed low near northern Baja.
Low-level moisture will be somewhat limited, but steep low-midlevel
lapse rates and substantial south-southeasterly deep-layer shear
will support a few storms/clusters capable of marginally severe hail
and gusts approaching 60 mph.
Read more
SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0225 PM CDT Mon Mar 09 2026
Valid 111200Z - 121200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EAST TEXAS
AND THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms are expected on Wednesday
from the ArkLaTex and Lower Mississippi Valley northeastward through
the Ohio Valley vicinity.
...Synopsis...
Strong to severe thunderstorms are probable across an expansive warm
sector stretching from the Gulf Coast northward into the upper Ohio
Valley region. The amplification of an upper wave over the northern
CONUS will support steady intensification of a surface cyclone as it
migrates from the Great Lakes region into southeast Quebec by 12 UTC
Thursday. An attendant cold front will push across the MS Valley
into the upper OH Valley and Southeast states during the forecast
period, and will act as the primary foci for thunderstorm
development.
...East Texas into the Lower MS Valley...
Thunderstorm clusters and/or convective bands will likely be
ongoing, albeit weakening, across the eastern TX/OK at the start of
the forecast period. A combination of daytime heating, ascent ahead
of a southern-stream upper trough, and forcing along the approaching
cold front should promote an uptick in convective intensity and
coverage by late morning/early afternoon across LA and MS.
Storm-motion vectors largely along the front will maintain a linear
storm mode and support primarily a severe wind threat. The severe
threat may be maximized during the late morning/early afternoon
hours as buoyancy increases but before low to mid-level flow
decreases as the synoptic low accelerates away to the northeast.
...OH Valley...
Low-level moisture and a remnant EML will continue to spread
north/northeast in tandem with the translation of the surface low.
This should support adequate buoyancy within a narrow, but
migratory, warm sector for surface-based convection. Strong flow in
proximity to the surface low/upper jet will promote organized
convection along the front, most likely organized clusters and lines
capable of severe gusts and perhaps embedded circulations. Recent
extended-range RRFS solutions hint at the development of pre-frontal
supercells within a diffuse plume of low-level theta-e advection
across the upper OH Valley. Forecast soundings from this region
suggest that tornadic supercells are possible. Other guidance also
depicts this plume of theta-e advection, which lends some credence
to this scenario. However, the RRFS is typically overly aggressive
with convective intensity, and recent MPAS solutions are less
bullish on deep convection ahead of the front where mostly cloudy
skies should limit diurnal insolation to some degree. This
uncertainty precludes the introduction of higher risk probabilities,
but trends will be monitored for a more robust severe threat within
this regime.
..Moore.. 03/09/2026
Read more
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0216 PM CDT Mon Mar 09 2026
Valid 101200Z - 111200Z
An Isolated Dry Thunderstorm area was introduced overlapping
portions of the existing Elevated area and also extending north into
southwestern and central Kansas. As previously mentioned in the
initial Day 2/Tuesday Outlook, the environment is supportive of
thunderstorm development across much of the southern Plains as also
indicated in the general thunderstorm forecast. Along and behind the
dryline on the western periphery of anticipated severe convection,
precipitable water values, indicative of moisture above a dry
sub-cloud layer, range from 0.5 to 0.8 of an inch and are not
expected to lead to significant rainfall accumulation. Storm motion
peaking at 30-40 knots across the southern portion of the Isolated
Dry Thunderstorm area is also an additive factor in this
environment. While confidence exists in dry thunderstorm development
on Day 2/Tuesday, the exact coverage, in particular adjacent to and
within the southern end of the drawn area, could be affected by
changes in the movement of the surface dryline and/or the cutoff
low's progression.
The Elevated area was trimmed slightly across portions of extreme
southeastern New Mexico and west-central Texas in agreement with
latest forecast guidance. Guidance also indicates that portions of
the Elevated area may not reach elevated criteria with recent
HREF/REFS probabilities of less than 20%.
..Stearns/Nauslar.. 03/09/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0218 AM CDT Mon Mar 09 2026/
...Synopsis...
The upper low over northern Mexico will eject eastward into the
southern Plains D2/Tuesday. At the surface, a lee cyclone will
intensify and move eastward across parts of KS/OK dragging a
trailing dryline with it over parts of the southern Plains. East of
the dryline, rich low-level moisture and widespread
showers/thunderstorms are expected. Dry and breezy conditions behind
the dryline and east of the upper low appear likely to support some
fire-weather potential.
...Southern High Plains...
As the upper low over the Southwest moves northeastward, strong flow
aloft and ascent will overspread parts of the southern High Plains.
A surface low will deepen with a surface trough/dryline supporting
dry downslope flow across the southern Rockies and High Plains on D2
(Tuesday afternoon). Gusty west/southwest winds of 15-25 mph are
expected along with afternoon humidity of 20-25%. This should
support elevated fire-weather conditions across parts of West TX,
the Rio Grande Valley and far eastern NM where fuels remain dry and
receptive.
The potential for precipitation and the location of the dryline
remain a significant source of uncertainty on the overall areal
extent and magnitude of the fire-weather threat D2/Tuesday. Showers
and thunderstorms are expected both to the west and east of the
dryline. Cloud cover and increasing humidity may also limit the
potential for more intense fire-weather conditions despite
relatively strong surface winds. Changes will likely be needed to
the eastern extent of the Elevated area as details surrounding
dryline and precipitation placement become clearer on Day1/Monday.
While storms are likely over central NM, relatively modest moisture
profiles (PWATS generally under 0.6 inches) suggest a few of these
storms may not be overly productive for wetting rainfall. With steep
low-level lapse rates and modest buoyancy, a few lightning strikes
are possible. These storms could be drier with the potential for
lightning to interact with receptive fuels. However, dry
thunderstorm coverage appears too low to introduce probabilities at
this time.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0443 PM CDT Mon Mar 09 2026
Valid 111200Z - 171200Z
The upper level low currently over the southwest CONUS will push
eastward across the southern US through the week. Upper level flow
largely becomes zonal in the wake of this low, with shortwave trough
passages impacting northern and central portions of the CONUS. This
will lead to dry air in place just east of the Rocky Mountains over
portions of the High Plains. While the pattern remains on track from
previous days, the exact timing and placement of daily areas will
likely fluctuate with surface features dominating the forecast.
On Day 4/Thursday, strong west-northwest winds sustained up to 30
mph will impact the surface behind a frontal boundary. Thanks to the
cold frontal passage, RHs will likely reach near-critical
thresholds, bottoming out around 15-25% across a good portion of the
High Plains stretching all the way from northeast New Mexico to
eastern Wyoming. Thus, the existing two areas of 40% probabilities
were combined and also extended further north just barely into
southeastern Montana. The 70% area was similarly extended toward
this direction over extreme eastern Wyoming and southwest South
Dakota as well. Higher elevations of the Black Hills are not
expected to reach critical thresholds.
On Day 5/Friday and Day 6/Saturday, additional 40% probabilities
were similarly added over portions of the same area. Thus, eastern
Wyoming and western Nebraska in particular should expect multiple
consecutive days of potential critical fire weather conditions on
Day 4/Thursday through Day 6/Saturday leading into the coming
weekend. Though, strong westerly winds will be less widespread on
Day 5/Friday and Day 6/Saturday. This will lead to only slightly
higher afternoon RHs as well with cooler air in place and slightly
less mixing.
..Stearns/Nauslar.. 03/09/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
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