SPC - No watches are valid as of Sat Jan 10 00:49:02 UTC 2026

No watches are valid as of Sat Jan 10 00:49:02 UTC 2026.

SPC MD 16

MD 0016 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN TEXAS...LOUISIANA...AND SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI

Mesoscale Discussion 0016
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0640 PM CST Fri Jan 09 2026

Areas affected...portions of eastern Texas...Louisiana...and
southern Mississippi

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely 

Valid 100040Z - 100245Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...A gradual increase in storm intensity is expected this
evening and tonight over portions of the Sabine and lower MS
Valleys. A mix of supercells and linear segments will likely support
a risk for damaging gusts and a couple tornadoes. One or more
watches are likely in the next hour or two.

DISCUSSION...As of 0130 UTC, regional radar and mesoanalysis showed
scattered convection ongoing within a very moist and broad warm
sector from east TX into LA and across southern MS. Over the last 2
hours, convection within this region has slowly intensified as a
positive-tilt upper trough over the southern Plains has moved
eastward. Continued ascent and convective development within the
warm sector appears likely this evening given robust moisture and
buoyancy (MLCAPE 1000-2000 J/kg LIX/LCH RAOBs) with little to no
inhibition remaining.

Overall forcing is still somewhat nebulous and driven primarily by
low-level warm advection. This suggests storm evolution is likely to
be slow until the upper trough moves closer. Initial storm evolution
is expected along low-level confluence structures and the cold front
over eastern TX. Deep-layer shear (50-60 kt) oriented largely
parallel to these features is favorable for storm organization, but
with a mixed convective mode of supercells and linear segments. This
will favor a risk for damaging gusts given strong mid and low-level
flow.

While initially somewhat weaker, low-level flow/shear should
increase this evening as large-scale ascent from the approaching
upper trough and nocturnal low-level jet intensify across LA and MS.
Peak SRH (0-500m) of 100-150 m2/s2 will support low-level rotation
and the potential for a couple tornadoes as well. This appears
especially likely along the diffuse warm front where weak pressure
falls are occurring and low-level winds are backed.

Observational trends and short-term model guidance suggest
convection will gradually increase in coverage and intensity this
evening. As storms mature a severe threat should evolve and
transition northeastward tonight. Given the potential for damaging
gusts and a couple tornadoes, one or more watches is likely needed
in the next hour or two.

..Lyons/Gleason.. 01/10/2026

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MOB...JAN...LIX...LCH...SHV...

LAT...LON   30409384 30789411 31389416 31939382 32509255 32269018
            32078938 31848874 31378844 31028868 30509099 30479125
            30369211 30369339 30409384 

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-130 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN

SPC Jan 10, 2026 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
      
Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0643 PM CST Fri Jan 09 2026

Valid 100100Z - 101200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EAST TEXAS TO
CENTRAL ALABAMA...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms are forecast across southeast Texas
into the central Gulf states tonight. A few tornadoes and damaging
wind gusts are possible.

...01z Update...

Notable short-wave trough is beginning to eject northeast across the
central Plains early this evening. Water vapor supports this with
the center of circulation near DDC. 500mb speed max affiliated with
this feature will strengthen and translate across north TX-southern
MO-central IN by the end of the period. This evolution will result
in negligible height changes along/near the Gulf coast overnight.

As this feature advances east, LLJ is expected to increase across LA
later this evening, strengthening into northern AL by 10/12z.
Low-level warm advection has proven instrumental in convective
development much of the day with scattered thunderstorms persisting
across the lower MS Valley. However, some increase in convection
appears to be occurring across east TX as the southern influence of
the ejecting short wave glances this region. Earlier thoughts
regarding severe potential remain. 00z sounding from LCH exhibits
strong shear and ample buoyancy for supercells. Latest thinking is
scattered-numerous showers/thunderstorms will persist along a
corridor from northern LA into central MS with the potential for
some uptick in intensity overnight as the LLJ strengthens.

..Darrow.. 01/10/2026


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SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
          
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0341 PM CST Fri Jan 09 2026

Valid 111200Z - 171200Z

...Synopsis...
Dry conditions and gradually warming temperatures will likely
dominate the western U.S. under a relatively stagnant upper-level
ridging pattern across the region. Broad northwest flow and
upper-level troughing across the eastern U.S. will continue to usher
in periods of colder temperatures and some precipitation via frontal
systems through late next week, although the High Plains should
remain largely dry.

...Southern/Central High Plains...
A dry return flow pattern should materialize early next week across
the Southern Plains as surface high pressure settles into the
southeastern U.S. Although dry conditions will persist, surface
winds from the west/southwest should remain muted, limiting a
broader fire weather threat. A more amplified upper-level pattern
should emerge by Day 6/Wednesday accompanied by a broad cold front
across the central U.S. This could present a fire weather concern
for portions of the Southern Plains/TX. Increasing northwest flow
aloft over the central/southern Rockies by Day 7/Thursday and
another potential cold front will promote a favorable downslope wind
set up in the lee of the central/southern Rockies. Some uncertainty
in frontal timing limits predictability at this time with no
critical probabilities introduced. 

...Day 3/Sunday - Southeast...
Considerable rainfall associated with an upper-level trough and
surface cold front over the weekend will likely mitigate fire
weather concerns from the northern Gulf Coast into the Mid Atlantic
for early next week. However, portions of southern Georgia, Coastal
Plains of the Carolinas and Florida could evade heavier rainfall.
This region could be exposed to dry, post-frontal flow from the
northwest on Day 3/Sunday although marginal fuels precludes
introduction of critical probabilities at this time.

..Williams.. 01/09/2026

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...


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