RSS Mesoscale Discussions from Storm Prediction Center
WW 419 TORNADO MN 300045Z - 300600Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Tornado Watch Number 419
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
745 PM CDT Mon Jun 29 2026
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Tornado Watch for portions of
Central and northern Minnesota
* Effective this Monday night and Tuesday morning from 745 PM
until 100 AM CDT.
* Primary threats include...
A few tornadoes likely with a couple intense tornadoes possible
Scattered damaging winds likely with isolated significant gusts
to 75 mph possible
Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2
inches in diameter possible
SUMMARY...Scattered supercell development is possible this evening
along a warm front moving slowly northward in Minnesota. Storms
interacting with the warm front will be capable of producing a
strong tornado or two and large hail of 1-2 inches in diameter.
Late this evening some upscale growth into a line will be possible,
with an associated threat for damaging gusts of 60-75 mph and a
couple of tornadoes with embedded circulations.
The tornado watch area is approximately along and 65 statute miles
east and west of a line from 60 miles north northeast of Bemidji MN
to 40 miles west southwest of Brainerd MN. For a complete depiction
of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS
WOU9).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for
tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch
area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for
threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements
and possible warnings.
&&
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 415...WW 416...WW
417...WW 418...
AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail
surface and aloft to 2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind
gusts to 65 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 600. Mean
storm motion vector 24030.
...Thompson
Read more
WW 418 SEVERE TSTM NE 292345Z - 300500Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 418
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
645 PM CDT Mon Jun 29 2026
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of
South central into northeast Nebraska
* Effective this Monday night from 645 PM until Midnight CDT.
* Primary threats include...
Scattered damaging winds and isolated significant gusts to 90
mph likely
Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2
inches in diameter possible
SUMMARY...A mixed mode of severe storms is expected through early
tonight, with supercells initially and upscale growth into clusters
by late evening. The environment will favor significant severe
outflow gusts of 80-90 mph and large hail of 1-2 inches in diameter.
The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 60
statute miles east and west of a line from 35 miles northwest of
Sioux City IA to 55 miles south southwest of Kearney NE. For a
complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline
update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU8).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.
&&
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 415...WW 416...WW 417...
AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 80 knots. A
few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 600. Mean storm motion vector
24035.
...Thompson
Read more
WW 417 SEVERE TSTM IA MN NE SD 292330Z - 300500Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 417
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
630 PM CDT Mon Jun 29 2026
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of
Northwest Iowa
Central and southwest Minnesota
Extreme northeast Nebraska
Eastern South Dakota
* Effective this Monday night from 630 PM until Midnight CDT.
* Primary threats include...
Scattered damaging winds and isolated significant gusts to 80
mph likely
Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2
inches in diameter possible
A tornado or two possible
SUMMARY...Thunderstorm development is expected in the next hour or
so across eastern South Dakota and far northeast Nebraska, and the
storms will subsequently spread east-northeastward into Minnesota.
A mix of supercells and line segments will be capable of producing
swaths of damaging gusts up to 80 mph, large hail of 1.5-2 inches in
diameter, and a tornado or two.
The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 65
statute miles east and west of a line from 25 miles north northeast
of Alexandria MN to 35 miles east southeast of Yankton SD. For a
complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline
update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU7).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.
&&
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 415...WW 416...
AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 70 knots. A
few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 600. Mean storm motion vector
24035.
...Thompson
Read more
WW 415 TORNADO MN ND SD 291855Z - 300300Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Tornado Watch Number 415
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
155 PM CDT Mon Jun 29 2026
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Tornado Watch for portions of
Northwest Minnesota
Central and Eastern North Dakota
Northern South Dakota
* Effective this Monday afternoon and evening from 155 PM until
1000 PM CDT.
* Primary threats include...
A few tornadoes and a couple intense tornadoes possible
Scattered large hail likely with isolated very large hail events
to 2.5 inches in diameter possible
Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible
SUMMARY...Severe thunderstorms are expected to develop through the
afternoon, with multiple rounds in some areas later this afternoon
into this evening. Large hail will be a common concern and tornado
potential will exist this afternoon, and likely increase/maximize
into this evening across eastern North Dakota/far northeast South
Dakota into northwest Minnesota near a surface triple point and warm
front.
The tornado watch area is approximately along and 130 statute miles
east and west of a line from 60 miles north northeast of Devils Lake
ND to 70 miles east of Mobridge SD. For a complete depiction of the
watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU5).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for
tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch
area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for
threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements
and possible warnings.
&&
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 414...
AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail
surface and aloft to 2.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind
gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 550. Mean
storm motion vector 22025.
...Guyer
Read more
WW 0419 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0419 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET
Read more
WW 0418 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 418
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..CHALMERS..06/30/26
ATTN...WFO...GID...OAX...LBF...
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 418
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
NEC001-003-011-019-023-027-035-037-039-041-047-053-061-065-071-
073-077-079-081-083-089-093-099-107-119-121-125-129-137-139-141-
143-163-167-173-175-179-181-183-185-300240-
NE
. NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ADAMS ANTELOPE BOONE
BUFFALO BUTLER CEDAR
CLAY COLFAX CUMING
CUSTER DAWSON DODGE
FRANKLIN FURNAS GARFIELD
GOSPER GREELEY HALL
HAMILTON HARLAN HOLT
HOWARD KEARNEY KNOX
MADISON MERRICK NANCE
NUCKOLLS PHELPS PIERCE
PLATTE POLK SHERMAN
STANTON THURSTON VALLEY
WAYNE WEBSTER WHEELER
YORK
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
Read more
WW 0417 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 417
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 W YKN TO
25 SSE BKX TO 10 N VVV TO 45 NNW VVV.
..CHALMERS..06/30/26
ATTN...WFO...FSD...MPX...ABR...
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 417
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
IAC035-059-119-141-143-149-167-193-300240-
IA
. IOWA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CHEROKEE DICKINSON LYON
O'BRIEN OSCEOLA PLYMOUTH
SIOUX WOODBURY
MNC009-011-015-023-033-041-063-067-073-081-083-085-093-095-097-
101-103-105-117-121-127-129-133-141-143-145-149-151-153-155-165-
171-173-300240-
MN
. MINNESOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BENTON BIG STONE BROWN
CHIPPEWA COTTONWOOD DOUGLAS
JACKSON KANDIYOHI LAC QUI PARLE
LINCOLN LYON MCLEOD
MEEKER MILLE LACS MORRISON
MURRAY NICOLLET NOBLES
PIPESTONE POPE REDWOOD
RENVILLE ROCK SHERBURNE
Read more
WW 0416 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 416
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SSW IWD
TO 50 E IWD TO 40 N CMX.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1387
..CHALMERS..06/30/26
ATTN...WFO...MQT...GRB...
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 416
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
MIC013-043-053-061-071-083-103-300140-
MI
. MICHIGAN COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BARAGA DICKINSON GOGEBIC
HOUGHTON IRON KEWEENAW
MARQUETTE
WIC125-300140-
WI
. WISCONSIN COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
VILAS
LSZ243-246-247-248-265-300140-
CW
. ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE
Read more
WW 0415 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 415
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM ABR TO 55 NW
ABR TO 60 NNE DVL.
..KERR..06/30/26
ATTN...WFO...FGF...BIS...ABR...
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 415
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
MNC027-069-087-089-107-113-119-125-135-167-300240-
MN
. MINNESOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CLAY KITTSON MAHNOMEN
MARSHALL NORMAN PENNINGTON
POLK RED LAKE ROSEAU
WILKIN
NDC003-017-019-021-031-035-039-045-047-051-063-067-071-073-077-
081-091-093-097-099-300240-
ND
. NORTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BARNES CASS CAVALIER
DICKEY FOSTER GRAND FORKS
GRIGGS LAMOURE LOGAN
MCINTOSH NELSON PEMBINA
RAMSEY RANSOM RICHLAND
SARGENT STEELE STUTSMAN
TRAILL WALSH
Read more
MD 1388 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY FOR PARTS OF EAST CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...NORTHWEST THROUGH CENTRAL MINNESOTA
Mesoscale Discussion 1388
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0725 PM CDT Mon Jun 29 2026
Areas affected...parts of east central North Dakota...northwest
through central Minnesota
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely
Valid 300025Z - 300230Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent
SUMMARY...Developing supercells posing a risk for large hail and a
couple strong tornadoes may increase through 9-11 PM CDT.
DISCUSSION...Very moist boundary-layer air (including mid 70s F
surface dew points) advecting into the vicinity of a deep surface
low centered northeast of Bismarck is contributing to extreme
potential instability beneath steep-lapse rates associated with a
plume of very warm elevated mixed layer air. However, a combination
of subsidence aloft and inhibition associated with the elevated
mixed-layer has slowed convective development to this point.
A recent increase in deepening convective development is finally
underway near the leading edge of gradual weak cooling from the west
in the 700-500 mb layer, as well as along a retreating downstream
remnant outflow boundary/developing warm front, roughly centered
northeast of Alexandria MN. Particularly along the warm front,
where a 40+ kt southerly 850 mb jet is contributing to sizable
clockwise-curved low-level hodographs, the environment may become
increasingly conducive to supercells posing a risk for tornadoes.
The southern fringe of modest mid-level height falls, associated
with a northeastward pivoting upstream short wave trough, may not
begin impacting the area until 02-04Z, but it appears this threat
could commence a bit earlier.
..Kerr/Thompson.. 06/30/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...DLH...MPX...FGF...
LAT...LON 47409651 47589574 47199473 46969421 46179337 45709398
45739472 45999554 46199593 46349642 46569674 47129691
47409651
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...120-145 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...2.00-3.50 IN
Read more
SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0751 PM CDT Mon Jun 29 2026
Valid 300100Z - 301200Z
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PORTIONS OF THE
MIDWEST AND CENTRAL PLAINS...
...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are expected this evening across the Dakotas,
Upper Midwest and Middle Missouri Valley, including damaging winds,
large hail and a few tornadoes.
...Northern Plains and Midwest...
Thunderstorm activity has initiated across eastern Nebraska near the
cold front this evening, with additional areas of towering cu noted
into northern Kansas. As the low-level jet strengthens and ascent
increases with the approaching wave, it is likely additional
thunderstorm development will occur into the evening. Guidance
suggests that a mix of supercells and multi-cell clusters will
emerge and spread east northeastward into far southeastern
SD/northwestern IA and western MN. Strong to extreme instability and
steep lapse rates downstream will likely support potential for
damaging wind, with some significant gusts 75+ mph possible. Large
to very large hail will also be possible where supercells can
maintain semi-discrete mode. An upgrade to Enhanced was made with
this update to account for this potential. See MCD#1386 for
additional information on the short term severe potential.
Further north across eastern North Dakota into western/central
Minnesota near the surface low/warm front interface, potential will
continue for supercells capable of all hazards including large hail,
damaging wind, and strong tornadoes. See MCD#1387 for more
information.
...Southwest Texas to the Texas/Oklahoma Panhandles...
Thunderstorm activity continues across southwestern Texas into the
Texas/Oklahoma Panhandles near the dryline. Very warm temperatures
and dry mixed boundary layer conditions will continue to pose some
potential for damaging winds until sunset this evening.
...Georgia into northern Florida Peninsula...
A cluster of thunderstorms continues to move southwestward across
southern/central Georgia this evening. Ahead of this cluster, hot
and moderately unstable conditions will continue to pose potential
for water loaded downdrafts that my produce strong to severe winds.
..Thornton.. 06/30/2026
Read more
SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0437 PM CDT Mon Jun 29 2026
Valid 011200Z - 071200Z
...Synopsis...
Persistent troughing, enhanced flow aloft, and an established dry
airmass will maintain fire weather threats across the Great Basin
and Southwest through the work-week. Meanwhile, a strong ridge of
high pressure will continue to build across the central-eastern
CONUS through the forecast period, promoting widespread above normal
temperatures with mostly dry conditions. Beyond Day 5/Friday,
extended guidance hints at the potential for a pattern change. The
upper-level trough is forecast to lift into the northern Plains,
while ensembles depict ridging may build across northern Mexico and
into the Southwest this weekend. This could potentially allow some
monsoonal moisture to advect northward; however, varying model
trends lend to lower predictability in the overall pattern
evolution.
...Days 3-5/Wednesday-Friday...
Enhanced southwesterly flow associated with persistent upper-level
troughing will sustain fire weather concerns across the Southwest,
Great Basin, and CO Rockies. As such, 40% probabilities were
introduced on Day 3/Wednesday while probabilities were maintained on
Days 4-5/Thursday-Friday. Isolated dry thunderstorm potential on Day
2/Tuesday could result in lightning holdovers across north-central
NM and south-central CO, which may emerge as a result of consecutive
days of hot, dry, and breezy conditions.
..Elizalde-Garcia.. 06/29/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
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