RSS Mesoscale Discussions from Storm Prediction Center
No watches are valid as of Mon Feb 16 01:36:02 UTC 2026.
MD 0088 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PARTS OF NORTH-CENTRAL FLORIDA
Mesoscale Discussion 0088
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0734 PM CST Sun Feb 15 2026
Areas affected...Parts of north-central Florida
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 160134Z - 160400Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent
SUMMARY...A localized risk of strong/damaging gusts and perhaps a
brief tornado will continue for the next few hours across parts of
north-central Florida.
DISCUSSION...Clusters of mainly disorganized thunderstorms continue
spreading/developing east-southeastward across north-central FL
within a zone of low-level confluence and weak positive theta-e
advection. Weak pre-convective buoyancy may continue to limit
updraft intensity, though a narrow plume of middle/upper 60s
dewpoints is contributing to 500-1000 J/kg MLCAPE closer to the
coast. Despite the weak buoyancy, the TBW 00Z sounding and VWP are
sampling strong low/deep-layer shear -- aided by a 40-50-kt
southwesterly low-level jet and 60-70-kt midlevel flow. Enhanced
low-level hodograph curvature (around 350 m2/s2 0-1 km SRH) may
favor transient circulations embedded within the clusters of storms
as they continue east-southeastward, and locally damaging gusts
and/or a brief tornado cannot be entirely ruled out for the next few
hours. Any severe risk is expected to remain too limited for a
watch.
..Weinman/Hart.. 02/16/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...MLB...TBW...
LAT...LON 28938133 28808112 28648106 28378112 28098133 27848171
27568217 27478249 27508277 27718289 28008295 28358279
28928165 28938133
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
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SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0659 PM CST Sun Feb 15 2026
Valid 160100Z - 161200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER
NORTH-CENTRAL FLORIDA...
...SUMMARY...
A few strong storms remain possible this evening over parts of
north-central Florida and southeast Georgia, with gusty winds most
likely.
...Discussions...
A shortwave trough is currently moving across GA and FL. Between 00
and 06Z, rapid warming aloft will occur over the region, which will
likely gradually reduce storm strength.
Currently, the main zone of thunderstorm activity extends in a
west-east oriented band extending from the northeastern Gulf to just
north of Tampa and into the Atlantic, with lower-topped convection
beneath the cool pocket over southern GA. While deep-layer shear is
formidable at over 50 kt, thermodynamic profiles are not
particularly favorable. Area soundings at 00Z indicate a subsidence
inversion around 700 mb, though this is less prominent at TBW. Given
the loss of heating and the departing wave, storms are not expected
to increase in intensity, however, moderate westerly winds in the
low-levels, as well as 200+ effective SRH within the band of storms
north of Tampa could potentially produce a few damaging wind gusts.
A very brief tornado cannot be completely ruled out given the
strongly veering winds with height.
..Jewell.. 02/16/2026
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SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0354 PM CST Sun Feb 15 2026
Valid 171200Z - 231200Z
...Synopsis...
Larger scale troughing is still expected to evolve across the
western U.S. by Day 3/Tuesday, lasting through Day 5/Thursday before
a more progressive wave pattern emerges late next week. Embedded
short waves and attendant jet cores along with stronger surface lee
cyclone development in the Plains will likely promote substantial
fire weather concerns across portions of the central and southern
Plains particularly on Day 3/Tuesday and Day 4/Wednesday. Longer
term model guidance depicts a transition to a building ridge across
the West over the weekend, with troughing promoting broader
northwest flow and intrusion of a cooler, stable air mass east of
the Continental Divide early next week.
...Day 3/Tuesday - Central and Southern Plains...
An approaching mid-level short wave and associated 100+ knot jet
streak arrives Day 3/Tuesday for the Southern Plains while a
pronounced surface lee trough/cyclone strengthens across the
northern High Plains. A broad fire weather threat is likely across
the central and southern Plains with 70% critical probabilities
expanded across eastern CO and western NE. A dry cold front and
subsequent west/northwest wind shift could further impact wildfire
spread should ignitions occur. Some uncertainty exists regarding RH
reductions across the southern High Plains as ample subtropical
moisture and cloud cover stream into the region from the southwest.
Critical fire weather conditions are more probable a bit farther
east into western OK and southern KS where additional boundary layer
mixing and drier fuels exist.
...Day 4/Wednesday - Southern Plains...
Strong westerly flow aloft and evolving surface lee troughing in the
central High Plains should support another day of expanded fire
weather concerns across eastern CO and Southern Plains. Poor RH
recoveries leading into Day 4/Wednesday should further prime the
fuelscape for wildland fire spread. Some breaks in the cloud cover
across CO and the TX Panhandle should allow for a better mixing
environment as surface dewpoints drop into the teens coinciding with
breezy southwest winds. Critically low RH and stronger winds are
more likely across far eastern NM and TX/OK Panhandles Wednesday,
where a 70% critical area has been added.
...Day 5/Thursday - Southern Plains...
An embedded short wave and mid-level jet will support a broad
downslope drying regime across the Southern Plains on Day
5/Thursday. Another deepening surface cyclone in the central Plains
should promote an increasing fire weather threat farther eastern
into northern TX and western/central OK where 40% critical
probabilities have been expanded.
...Day 6-8/Friday-Sunday...
Fire weather concerns could extend into Day 6/Friday across eastern
NM and west TX as a trailing mid-level short wave ejects into the
Southern Plains. Uncertainty in the timing of this mid-level feature
remains as increasing ensemble member spread reduces predictability
of fire weather impacts at this time. A reduced fire weather threat
is possible by the weekend as a colder more stable air mass filters
into the eastern U.S. under northwest flow aloft.
..Williams.. 02/15/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
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