RSS Mesoscale Discussions from Storm Prediction Center
No watches are valid as of Sat Feb 21 13:04:02 UTC 2026.
No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Sat Feb 21 13:04:02 UTC 2026.
SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0700 AM CST Sat Feb 21 2026
Valid 211300Z - 221200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHEAST
STATES...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of the
Southeast today into this evening. Damaging wind gusts, large hail,
and perhaps a tornado are the expected hazards.
...Southeast States...
Clustered bands of thunderstorms have increased across east-central
Mississippi and central Alabama into northwest/west-central Georgia
during the predawn hours. These elevated storms are occurring on the
immediate cool side of a front that is draped
west/southwest-east/northeast across the region. These storms may
further increase and organize early today. The aggregating storm
mode and residually warm mid-level temperatures/modest mid-level
lapse rates should tend to temper hail potential. However, the
storms may become surface-based with time owing to diurnal heating
cycle and potential gradual cold pool-related storm propagation
toward the warm/moist side of the front where upper 60s F surface
dewpoints will persist through peak boundary layer mixing. This
scenario will potentially contribute to damaging wind potential into
late morning, and more so this afternoon across southeast Alabama
into southwest/south-central Georgia. Additional strong/severe storm
development may occur farther west later this afternoon across a
broader part of far southern Alabama/Florida Panhandle near the
front.
Low-level shear is initially strong but low-level flow is veered
west-southwesterly and will tend to weaken over time. Regardless,
long semi-unidirectional hodographs, particularly above 2.5 km AGL,
will persist with 50+ kt effective shear. This will support
organized storm modes potentially including bowing segments and
possibly a couple of splitting supercells.
Overall, damaging winds and hail are expected to be the primary
hazards, with some tornado potential as well, albeit relatively
limited and dependent on warm-sector development. While short-term
uncertainties exist regarding the magnitude of today's severe risk,
areas such as southeast Alabama and southwest/south-central Georgia
will be closely reevaluated in subsequent outlooks for a possible
categorical Slight Risk upgrade, mainly for damaging wind potential.
..Guyer/Grams.. 02/21/2026
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Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0331 AM CST Sat Feb 21 2026
Valid 241200Z - 011200Z
...DISCUSSION...
At the start of the forecast period, a dry airmass will remain
across much of the United States. The culprit being a large surface
anticyclone located across the northern Gulf Coast states
suppressing moisture return. By late Tuesday (Day 4), the
anticyclone will have moved into the eastern Gulf, with southerly
winds advecting moisture northward into the Southern Plains.
Thunderstorm chances may return to portions of the Southern Plains
into the Southeast overnight Wednesday into Thursday as a surface
cold front pushes south into the area. At this time, the quality of
the moisture return and poor lapse rates suggests limited, if any,
severe potential as the front moves through.
The aforementioned front will stall/wash out across the northern
Gulf states late on Thursday into Friday (Days 6 and 7) with modest
moisture return developing across the Southern Plains Friday into
Saturday (Days 7 and 8). This will be short lived as ensemble
guidance suggests a seasonably strong cold front moving into/through
the Southern Plains next weekend or early the following week. Once
again, current guidance indicates the quality of moisture return and
poor lapse rates should limit any severe potential.
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