RSS Mesoscale Discussions from Storm Prediction Center
No watches are valid as of Wed May 6 06:26:02 UTC 2026.
MD 0650 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR FROM SOUTHEAST OK/NORTHEAST TX INTO PARTS OF THE MID-SOUTH
Mesoscale Discussion 0650
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1254 AM CDT Wed May 06 2026
Areas affected...from southeast OK/northeast TX into parts of the
Mid-South
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 060554Z - 060800Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent
SUMMARY...An isolated severe threat may still develop overnight.
DISCUSSION...Generally weak and disorganized convection is ongoing
early this morning from parts of southeast OK into AR and western
TN. Much of this activity is occurring just north of a
southward-sagging cold front. Low-level warm/moist advection will
continue to support elevated convection north of the boundary
overnight, with MUCAPE of 1000-1500 J/kg and strong effective shear
conditionally supporting organized convection. While storms have
struggled thus far, it remains possible that an elevated supercell
or more organized storm cluster could develop with time, posing a
threat of isolated hail and strong/damaging gusts.
Storms have also recently developed southwest of Little Rock, to the
south of the primary front. While this convection may tend to remain
elevated due to increasing low-level stability, there may be a
window of opportunity for a near-surface-based storm to evolve
near/south of the front before convection is undercut. Should this
occur, a brief tornado threat could evolve, in addition to hail and
damaging-wind potential.
..Dean/Mosier.. 05/06/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...OHX...HUN...MEG...JAN...LZK...SHV...TSA...FWD...
OUN...
LAT...LON 34399607 34789495 35129230 35928957 36008834 35828792
35518761 35108751 34658781 34458815 33889073 33749188
33609261 33379352 33079459 33629569 33749601 34399607
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-110 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN
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SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1249 AM CDT Wed May 06 2026
Valid 061200Z - 071200Z
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF NORTHERN LOUISIANA INTO CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI AND CENTRAL
ALABAMA...
...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected this afternoon and
evening from eastern Texas into the lower Mississippi and Tennessee
Valleys/southern Appalachians. Supercells capable of all hazards
will be possible across portions of central Mississippi and Alabama
before a shift to a more widespread damaging wind risk into the late
evening/overnight.
...Synopsis...
A strong mid to upper-level jet will move across the mid Mississippi
Valley into Tennessee and northward into the Ohio Valley through the
period. At the surface, a cold front will sag southward from the
southern Plains into the Gulf Coast states and north into the
Mid-Atlantic region. Thunderstorm activity is expected to be ongoing
along this boundary at the start of the period this morning across
portions of Arkansas, northern Mississippi, and Tennessee. By the
afternoon, additional development of severe storms is likely across
portions of Louisiana into central Mississippi and central Alabama
along and ahead of the cold front. Supercells capable of all hazards
will be possible before trending to a damaging wind threat as storms
grow upscale through the evening.
...Northern Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama...
Extensive mid-level cloud cover is expected to persist this morning
across much of the Mississippi River Valley into portions of
northern Louisiana/Alabama/Mississippi. Within the gradient of
broken mid-level cloud cover across portions of south-central and
southern Mississippi into central Alabama, filtered heating and
strong warm air advection may promote a more favorable corridor of
moderate MLCAPE values. Almost all hi-res guidance hints at the
possibility of storms developing within the open warm sector by the
afternoon, the primary mode being supercelluar. Within this
corridor, a southwesterly low-level jet around 40-50 kts will also
increase into the evening enlarging low-level hodographs and
increasing potential for tornadoes. Should supercells be able to
form and sustain within this environment, they would pose a risk for
all hazards including strong tornadoes, large hail, and damaging
winds. The Enhanced Risk was shifted southward to nudge into the
region where there is better confidence that filtered heating will
occur. Higher probabilities were considered, but details on morning
cloud cover and air mass recovery into the afternoon lead to low
confidence in introducing higher probabilities.
As the front sags southward, storms will begin to cluster with
tendency to grow upscale and an increasing damaging wind threat
continuing downstream into portions of southern Alabama and
central/southern Georgia.
...Texas...
Thunderstorm development is possible further south along the front
and dryline into portions of eastern, central, and southwestern
Texas. Isolated supercells will be possible with potential for a few
instances of severe hail and damaging wind. Overall, coverage is
expected to remain more limited given better forcing for ascent will
be located to the east.
..Thornton/Lyons.. 05/06/2026
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SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1210 AM CDT Wed May 06 2026
Valid 071200Z - 081200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS FAR
SOUTHERN AL AND THE FL PANHANDLE INTO SOUTH CAROLINA...
...SUMMARY...
A few strong to severe thunderstorms are possible on Thursday across
portions of the central Gulf coast into South Carolina.
...Southern AL/FL Panhandle into SC...
Moderate to strong deep-layer west/southwesterly flow will persist
across the Southeast on Thursday as an upper trough pivots across
Eastern Seaboard. At the surface, a cold front is forecast from the
southern Mid-Atlantic to southern MS/southeast LA Thursday morning.
This boundary will develop east/southeast through the period moving
off the Atlantic coast and arcing across north-central FL and just
off the Gulf coast. Ahead of the front, a seasonally moist boundary
layer will be in place with dewpoints from the mid 60s to low 70s,
supporting MLCAPE up to around 1500 J/kg.
Some showers and thunderstorms could be ongoing near the front at
the beginning of the period. Where stronger heating can occur ahead
of this activity and the front, intensification of morning
convection and/or new development is possible. Given deep-layer flow
parallel to the boundary and poor frontal convergence, clusters and
linear segments are most probable. Given strong deep-layer flow,
isolated strong to severe wind gusts will be possible. Speed shear
in the lowest couple of kilometers and 0-1 SRH up to 150 m2/s2 could
also support a brief tornado, but strong/damaging gusts are expected
to be the main hazard.
..Leitman.. 05/06/2026
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SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0123 AM CDT Wed May 06 2026
Valid 081200Z - 091200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorm potential is uncertain/limited on Friday/Friday
night.
...TX...
A compact upper low and attendant trough over northern Mexico will
develop east over TX on Friday/Friday night. Ahead of this feature,
shortwave upper ridging will persist across the south-central U.S.
through at least Friday evening. Weak south/southeasterly low-level
flow will transport Gulf moisture northward across TX, supporting
modest destabilization. Most guidance depicts capping across the
region, with warm temperatures within the 850-700 mb layer noted in
forecast soundings. However, models do differ with regards to the
strength of the cap. Weak flow is also expected below 500 mb, though
veering wind profiles will result in stronger effective shear.
Thunderstorm development is uncertain, but if storms can development
and be maintained, some hail risk is possible given steep midlevel
lapse rates. Given uncertainty regarding depth and timing of
moisture return and persistent capping, will hold off from adding a
Level 1 (Marginal) risk at this time, especially as it is unclear
where the best potential would develop across TX.
..Leitman.. 05/06/2026
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SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1253 AM CDT Wed May 06 2026
Valid 061200Z - 071200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
...Synopsis...
Mid-level split flow consolidates into a broader southwesterly 70-80
knot jet over the Ozarks into the OH River Valley today ahead of an
elongated upper trough stretching from the Upper Midwest to the
Desert Southwest. At the surface, an advancing cold front extends
southwestward from the Northeast into the Southern Plains. A
deepening lee surface trough across eastern NM will promote dry,
downslope westerly winds across portions of the southern NM and west
TX under reinforcing southwesterly flow aloft.
...Southern New Mexico into West Texas...
Southwesterly flow aloft and low-level westerly winds (south of an
evolving lee surface low) will affect much of southern NM and West
TX today. Enhanced downslope drying yielding minimum RH of 10-15%
along with west winds of 15-25 mph are expected during peak boundary
layer mixing today. However, marginal fuels will inhibit overall
wildfire spread potential due to recent rainfall, although pockets
of dry fuels could support localized elevated fire weather concerns
particularly across the Cap Rock area.
..Williams.. 05/06/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
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SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1254 AM CDT Wed May 06 2026
Valid 071200Z - 081200Z
...Synopsis...
An upper-level trough and associated mid-level speed max will shift
into eastern CONUS Thursday. A cold front and attendant band of
showers and thunderstorms will overspread much of the Southeast and
Piedmont regions. Increasing westerly low-level flow south of the
frontal boundary will bring fire weather concerns to portions of
eastern FL Thursday. A building upper ridge across the western U.S.
will promote warming temperatures and dry conditions for the region.
...Florida Peninsula...
Enhanced westerly surface winds of 10-15 mph are expected across the
FL Peninsula as a cold front approaches the FL/GA border Thursday.
Inland temperatures in the low to mid 90s F will evolve within a
dry, well mixed boundary layer by early Thursday afternoon. The warm
temperatures, increasing westerly flow amid relative humidity in the
25-35% range and drying fuels, will support an elevated fire weather
concern for portions of the eastern FL Peninsula where Elevated
Highlights have been introduced.
..Williams.. 05/06/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
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