RSS Mesoscale Discussions from Storm Prediction Center
No watches are valid as of Tue Jun 23 11:00:07 UTC 2026.
MD 1269 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR SOUTHWEST KANSAS INTO NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA AND THE NORTHEAST TEXAS PANHANDLE
Mesoscale Discussion 1269
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0557 AM CDT Tue Jun 23 2026
Areas affected...southwest Kansas into northwest Oklahoma and the
northeast Texas Panhandle
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible
Valid 231057Z - 231330Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent
SUMMARY...Storm coverage continues to increase this morning, with
sporadic hail likely. The area is being monitored for potential
upscale growth and watch potential for damaging wind downstream.
DISCUSSION...Storms have increased in coverage over the last couple
hours, as the low-level jet gradually veers towards southerly,
bringing a very moist air mass northward atop the relatively cool
surface air mass. MUCAPE is likely above 2000 J/kg, with upstream
PWAT measured at 1.77" near OKC. West to northwest midlevel winds
around 30 kt combined with the backed low-level winds are resulting
in effective shear over 40 kt.
In the near term, localized hail up to 1.75" appears possible in the
stronger cells, with perhaps an increase in localized damaging gust
potential. Trends will continue to be monitored for any upscale
organization and possible downstream watch potential.
..Jewell/Gleason.. 06/23/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...OUN...DDC...AMA...
LAT...LON 37790123 37860107 37930078 37670021 37149954 36229865
35659867 35439938 35450007 36380072 37050100 37560124
37790123
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN
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MD 1268 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR WEST-CENTRAL NEBRASKA
Mesoscale Discussion 1268
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0541 AM CDT Tue Jun 23 2026
Areas affected...west-central Nebraska
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 231041Z - 231345Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent
SUMMARY...A narrow corridor of hail and damaging wind potential may
persist for a few hours this morning.
DISCUSSION...An intense cluster of cells has developed near the
surface trough over northern NE, under the influence of the upper
wave moving across the Dakotas. Temperature aloft are relatively
cool, with midlevel westerlies around 40 kt aiding deep-layer shear
for storm longevity. Surface temperatures are cool and in the low
60s F, but stronger south/southwest winds just off the surface are
likely aiding destabilization and storm relative inflow within the
850 mb theta-e gradient.
Given the relatively large size of the complex and favorable
elevated influx of moisture out of the south/southwest, it seems
likely that hail and locally damaging wind potential will persist
within a narrow zone immediately to the southeast. Trends will
continue to be monitored for any additional expansion in threat
area, and watch potential could be reconsidered at that time.
..Jewell/Gleason.. 06/23/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...GID...LBF...
LAT...LON 42100254 42290209 42430162 41900056 41189969 40629974
40350093 40660145 40990188 41740236 42100254
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN
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SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook CORR 1
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0356 AM CDT Tue Jun 23 2026
Valid 231200Z - 241200Z
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF
THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF
THE MID ATLANTIC...
CORRECTED FOR TEXT
...SUMMARY...
Severe storms capable of 2+ inch diameter hail, 75+ mph gusts, and
isolated tornadoes are expected from the central High Plains into
parts of the central and southern Plains today into tonight.
Damaging gusts and perhaps a brief tornado may occur with storms
along the Mid-Atlantic. Scattered storms capable of isolated severe
wind/hail are possible across the northern Plains into the upper
Mississippi Valley.
...Synopsis...
A mid-level trough will impinge on the Eastern Seaboard while upper
ridging builds over the western into central CONUS today. Multiple
mid-level impulses are poised to traverse the upper ridge,
supporting at least scattered thunderstorm development in multiple
rounds across the Plains. These rounds of storms will encompass the
entire period (12Z Tuesday morning through 12Z Wednesday morning),
resulting in a complex forecast. Nonetheless, stronger flow aloft
associated with the ridge will advect an EML atop seasonal low-level
moisture, resulting in enough buoyancy and vertical wind shear to
support an appreciable severe threat, especially over the central
High Plains. Otherwise, a cold front approaching the East Coast will
support a line of severe thunderstorms over the Mid-Atlantic.
...Portions of the central High Plains...
By afternoon peak heating, upslope flow beneath a glancing mid-level
impulse will support the initiation of at least isolated storms.
These storms will develop atop a relatively mixed boundary layer and
surface dewpoints approaching 60 F, overspread by 9 C/km mid-level
lapse rates, resulting in moderate to locally strong buoyancy (i.e.
3000+ J/kg MLCAPE). Strong vertical wind shear will also be in
place, with 50 kts of effective bulk shear driven by elongated
hodographs with modest low-level curvature. Supercells will be the
primary storm mode, accompanied by a threat for all hazards. Given
the potential for a mixed boundary layer, intense gusts well
exceeding 75 mph will be possible, in addition to hailstones
potentially reaching the 2-3.5 inch range. Any supercells that can
ingest terrain-induced low-level vertical vorticity may be
accompanied by a landspout/hybrid tornado threat.
...Portions of the central and southern Plains...
A surface boundary currently resides along the Red River, with
thunderstorms developing all along this boundary from the TX
Panhandle to central MS. At the start of the forecast period (12Z
Tuesday), an established low-level jet will be in the process of
transporting a moist low-level airmass northward, perhaps
encouraging northward movement of the surface boundary as well.
However, an MCS may develop somewhere along the KS/OK border at the
start of the period along an elevated boundary, which will drift
southeastward through the late morning/early afternoon hours. The
evolution of this MCS and interacting convection with the
aforementioned surface boundary introduces considerable uncertainty
to the forecast, especially for late afternoon/early evening storms.
If the MCS and merging surface boundary convection linger over the
southern Plains through the day, later severe potential may be
reduced. However, if convection can exit the Plains or somehow
dissipate by late morning/early afternoon, enough destabilization
may take place for an evening severe threat. Should the later
scenario unfold, convective initiation over the southern High Plains
may result in severe hail/wind producing supercells merging into a
cold-pool driven MCS, which in turn may produce a severe wind swath
with 75+ mph gusts. Given so much uncertainty with the details of
this forecast, a broad area of 15 percent/CIG1 probabilities were
introduced for portions of the central and southern Plains.
Considerable adjustments to this forecast (upgrades or probabilities
removal) may be needed depending on convective and subsequent
modified environmental evolution through the first half of the
period.
...Parts of the Northern Plains...
Cold temperatures aloft and 8+ C/km mid-level lapse rates will
accompany the passage of an upper low over parts of the northern
Plains into the Upper MS Valley. By afternoon peak heating,
thunderstorms initiating along the periphery of the upper low, amid
a belt of stronger flow aloft (driving elongated hodographs) will
support multicells and perhaps transient supercells capable of
isolated severe wind and hail.
...Mid-Atlantic...
By late morning into early afternoon, surface temperatures warming
into the 80s F amid 70+ F dewpoints will yield over 2000 J/kg
MLCAPE, but distributed through tall/thin profiles given poor (5-6
C/km) mid-level lapse rates. Nearly unidirectional tropospheric wind
profiles will yield nearly 40 kts of effective (speed) shear, which
will favor multicellular development and ultimately a squall line
along/ahead of the cold front. Damaging gusts are expected to be the
main threat, though a brief tornado may also occur wherever locally
backed near-surface winds may be realized.
..Squitieri/Halbert.. 06/23/2026
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SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0109 AM CDT Tue Jun 23 2026
Valid 241200Z - 251200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS....
...SUMMARY...
Widely scattered severe storms are possible across the central High
Plains on Wednesday with a threat for large to very large hail and
severe wind gusts. More isolated severe storms are possible across
portions of the Upper Midwest, Ozarks to Mississippi, and across
northern Utah.
...Synopsis...
Moderate northwesterly mid-level flow will be present from the
northern Rockies to the Midwest between a ridge across the Southwest
and a trough moving across southern Canada into the Upper Midwest. A
weak mid-level shortwave trough will likely be in the Arkansas
region at the beginning of the period and weaken with a secondary
mid-level shortwave trough moving across the central Rockies and
deamplifying the ridge. At the surface, a weak surface low will move
from northern Minnesota into Wisconsin. A secondary lee cyclone will
develop across eastern Colorado in response to the approaching
mid-level shortwave trough and strengthening mid-level flow.
...Central/southern High Plains...
Moderate to strong instability is forecast to develop within upslope
flow across eastern Colorado and southeast Wyoming on Wednesday
afternoon. As 40 to 50 knots of mid-level flow advects over the
region, a favorable supercell environment will be in place.
Supercells are likely to develop by mid afternoon with an initial
threat of large to very large hail and severe winds. The more
organized supercell threat is forecast from east-central Colorado
northward where the 15% hail probabilities are confined. 15% wind
probabilities continue farther south as forecast soundings suggest
severe winds (perhaps 75+ mph) are likely, even if storms are less
organized.
...KS/OK into the Ozarks...
Day 1 convection will have a considerable impact on the coverage and
severity of severe storms on Wednesday. Some guidance shows morning
storms along a frontal zone in Oklahoma and persisting into the
afternoon which will stabilize most of the region into the afternoon
and evening. However, if these storms do not form, a very favorable
airmass will remain in place and a MCS could develop across the High
Plains and move into this region Tuesday night. This could bring
some severe weather threat and it would have implications for where
destabilization would be on Day 2/Wednesday. Therefore, a broad 5%
driven by severe winds seems appropriate at this time and additional
refinement can be made once the impact of prior day convection
becomes more clear.
...Western Great Lakes...
Lingering clouds associated with early-day storms may limit air mass
destabilization into afternoon. However, where cloud breaks can
occur, the combination of cooling temperatures aloft and modest
boundary-layer moisture content will support moderate afternoon
instability. Widely scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop
during the afternoon in the vicinity of the surface low and frontal
boundary, and within the belt of stronger mid-level flow, suggesting
some potential for large hail with the strongest updrafts.
...Eastern Arkansas into Mississippi...
There is considerable uncertainty regarding the coverage of storms
across Arkansas at 12Z Wednesday, but given forcing from a mid-level
trough and moderate to strong instability across the region, either
re-intensification of morning convection or additional afternoon
convection is possible within this zone. Damaging winds will be the
primary threat.
...Northern Utah...
A weak mid-level shortwave trough will move across northern Utah
during the day on Monday with weak to moderate instability. Forecast
soundings show a deeply-mixed sub-cloud layer which may result in
severe winds. Some consideration was given to a CIG1 area given the
potential for organized storms in the steep lapse rate environment,
but did not have the confidence for 75+ mph wind gusts to add it at
this time.
..Bentley.. 06/23/2026
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SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0230 AM CDT Tue Jun 23 2026
Valid 251200Z - 261200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS AND NORTHERN OKLAHOMA/SOUTHERN
KANSAS INTO THE OZARKS....
...SUMMARY...
Scattered strong to severe storms are possible across portions of
the central/northern High Plains with a threat for large to very
large hail and severe wind, and across portions of northern Oklahoma
and southern Kansas into the Ozarks on Thursday.
...Synopsis...
A mostly zonal pattern is forecast across the CONUS on Thursday with
multiple embedded shortwave troughs. The two features of interest
will move from the northern Great Basin to Wyoming with the second
shortwave trough moving from the Four Corners into the
central/southern Plains. At the surface, a lee cyclone is expected
to develop in the Texas Panhandle vicinity with a frontal zone
extending eastward toward the Ozarks.
...Central/Northern High Plains...
Moderate instability will develop across eastern Wyoming and
northeast Colorado amid persistent upslope flow. As mid-level flow
strengthens to 35 to 40 knots and mid-level forcing overspreads the
Plains, expect supercells to develop across eastern Wyoming and
northeast Colorado. These storms will have a threat for large to
very large hail and severe wind gusts.
...Northern Oklahoma/southern Kansas into the Ozarks...
A mid-level shortwave trough should result in sufficient upper-level
support for storm development along the frontal zone. Moderate to
strong instability is expected to overlap the same region with 40 to
50 knots of mid-level flow and a moderate low-level jet. Some storm
activity may be ongoing with this shortwave trough on Thursday
morning. Therefore, the greatest storm threat should be on the
south/southwest extent of this morning activity. The environment
will support supercells capable of large hail, severe winds, and
perhaps even some tornadoes. The extent of the tornado threat will
depend on how strong the surface reflection associated with this
feature may be. A solution such as the NAM has a much stronger
surface low and low-level jet response, which would enhance the
tornado threat along this frontal zone.
..Bentley.. 06/23/2026
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Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0347 AM CDT Tue Jun 23 2026
Valid 261200Z - 011200Z
...DISCUSSION...
...D5/Saturday - Northern Plains...
A strong mid-level trough will move into the Northwest on Saturday
with strong mid-level flow extending around the base of this trough.
The leading edge of this stronger mid-level flow will emerge over
the northern Plains on Saturday with a lee cyclone forecast near the
MT/SD/WY border. Moderate to strong instability is forecast to
develop as mid to upper 60s dewpoints advect northward. Strong to
severe storms appear likely during the afternoon and evening as the
lead shortwave trough emerges and the low-level jet strengthens.
There is still some uncertainty with the location/timing of the lead
shortwave trough which may require some shifting of the
probabilities at a later time. However, confidence in severe weather
in the general region is high enough to add 15 percent
probabilities.
...D6/Sunday - Northern Plains Vicinity...
On Sunday, as the primary jet streak emerges across the northern
Plains, severe weather will also be possible across North Dakota and
vicinity. However, the evolution of the upper trough/jet streak is a
bit more uncertain and therefore, the area with this greater concern
is less clear. Eventual severe weather probabilities seem likely,
but will not be added until guidance comes into better agreement
regarding the upper-level pattern.
...D7/Monday - Upper Midwest...
As the mid-level trough shifts east on Monday, the stronger
mid-level flow may overspread an unstable warm sector across parts
of the Upper Midwest. Considerable uncertainty regarding the upper
trough evolution and position of the surface features preclude
inclusion of probabilities at this time.
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SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0114 AM CDT Tue Jun 23 2026
Valid 241200Z - 251200Z
...Synopsis...
An embedded upper-level short wave trough and attendant plume of
mid/upper level sub-tropical moisture moves into the Southwest by
Day 2/Wednesday, bringing a dry thunderstorm threat to portions of
the Southwest and Four Corners region. Early in the day, convection
will likely be ongoing over portions of southwest UT before becoming
more widespread to include much of the larger Isolated Dry Thunder
area as daytime heating continues. The escalating precipitable water
values associated with this increasingly progressive moisture plume
will be watched closely with future forecast issuances given their
potential to dampen dry thunderstorm potential. However, given the
widespread critically dry fuels, preceding hot and dry surface
conditions before convection starts and the dry sub-cloud layer,
even if modeled precipitation amounts trend upward, a fire weather
threat will still exist from lightning ignitions across this region.
Wetter storms working to conceal potential ignitions followed by the
hot, dry, and very windy pattern change on the horizon later this
week for this region could become particularly concerning given the
propensity for lightning holdovers.
The Elevated wind/RH area over eastern NV was also slightly adjusted
commensurate with the latest forecast models depicting a corridor of
10-20 mph sustained south to southwesterly winds over this portion
of the western Great Basin where hot and dry (5-15%) conditions will
exist through the afternoon.
..Stearns.. 06/23/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
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