RSS Mesoscale Discussions from Storm Prediction Center
No watches are valid as of Sat Feb 28 00:44:02 UTC 2026.
No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Sat Feb 28 00:44:02 UTC 2026.
SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0630 PM CST Fri Feb 27 2026
Valid 280100Z - 281200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated-to-scattered thunderstorm threat continues tonight.
...01z Update...
Weak MCS has evolved over the eastern Gulf/west-central FL Peninsula
early this evening. Latest radar data suggests an MCV may be
embedded within the broader precip shield over Hernando county, and
this feature is shifting steadily east. Greatest concentration of
convection this evening will likely be immediately ahead of this
feature, with a trailing band of somewhat stronger updrafts trailing
southwest across the Tampa region into the eastern Gulf. While this
trailing band may exhibit a bit more intensity, the threat of severe
remains low as poor midlevel lapse rates are likely inhibiting
updraft strength.
..Darrow.. 02/28/2026
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SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0352 PM CST Fri Feb 27 2026
Valid 011200Z - 071200Z
Zonal flow aloft evolves in the Southwest on Day 3/Sunday as surface
troughing pushes cooler air into the central US. Depending on the
extent of the arctic airmass, moisture advection via southerly flow
along the TX Gulf Coast into the southern High Plains may be
limited. Increasing heights and northwesterly flow aloft will
promote warm, dry air across the Southwest. RH values of 10-15%
combined with westerly surface winds of 10-20 mph atop dry fuels may
generate locally elevated fire weather conditions in eastern New
Mexico on Day 3/Sunday.
Through early next week, broad southwesterly flow aloft in the
Southwest and southern High Plains will evolve as a trough is
forecast to move east across CONUS. Enhanced southerly surface flow
may bring modest Gulf moisture to the Plains region, though the
extent of moisture advection is uncertain. Significant spread exists
in the timing of upper trough ejection and development of a lee
surface low. Despite model and ensemble uncertainties in the overlap
of strong winds and low RH in the Southwest (and to some extent,
parts of the southern High Plains), elevated fire weather conditions
are likely to emerge Day 4/Monday and Day 5/Tuesday.
Day 6/Wednesday - Day 8/Friday, a large upper-level trough is
forecast to dig into the Desert Southwest. Notable variance exists
in long-term model solutions in the strength and/or evolution. The
synoptic pattern could suggest the potential for fire weather
conditions, though given the overall uncertainty in the upper-level
pattern evolution, probabilities have been withheld for now.
..Elizalde-Garcia/Wendt.. 02/27/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
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