RSS Mesoscale Discussions from Storm Prediction Center
No watches are valid as of Sat Apr 4 10:54:01 UTC 2026.
MD 0356 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 95...96... FOR PARTS OF ARKANSAS INTO FAR SOUTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA
Mesoscale Discussion 0356
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0458 AM CDT Sat Apr 04 2026
Areas affected...Parts of Arkansas into far southeastern Oklahoma
Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 95...96...
Valid 040958Z - 041100Z
The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 95, 96
continues.
SUMMARY...Strong to locally damaging gusts remain possible. A
downstream watch is not expected.
DISCUSSION...A line of thunderstorms tracking eastward along a cold
front/large-scale outflow boundary in AR and far southeastern OK has
decreased in intensity over the last hour as it moves eastward into
weaker surface-based buoyancy and limited large-scale forcing for
ascent. Nevertheless, the established cold pool and 40-kt flow in
the lowest 1 km AGL (per LZK VWP) will still support strong to
locally damaging gusts, given weakly unstable surface-based inflow.
Current expectation is for a continued weakening trend with eastward
extent, and a downstream watch is not expected.
..Weinman/Guyer.. 04/04/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...TSA...
LAT...LON 34699496 34839452 34889371 35109309 35839269 36129224
36349184 36339145 36139131 35679137 35059176 34599231
34219385 34199464 34319496 34699496
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
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SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1259 AM CDT Sat Apr 04 2026
Valid 041200Z - 051200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SOUTHEAST LOWER
MICHIGAN...MUCH OF OHIO...AND PORTIONS OF WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA AND
NEW YORK....
...SUMMARY...
Strong-to-severe storms will be possible from eastern Texas
northeastward toward the Lower Great Lakes. Sporadic damaging winds
will be the most likely severe hazard throughout this corridor, with
the greatest likelihood across the Lower Great Lakes.
... Synopsis ...
A midlevel trough is forecast to move from the northern Plains into
Ontario on Saturday As this happens, a surface low should lift
northward from northern Illinois/southern Wisconsin into Ontario as
well and a surface cold front will accelerate eastward across the
Great Lakes and be approaching the East Coast by Sunday morning. To
the southwest, the cold front will not progress as quickly, but
should advance south and east through the day.
... Southeast Lower Michigan, Ohio, Western Pennsylvania, and
western New York ...
As the surface low lifts northward into Canada on Saturday, showers
and thunderstorms are expected to be ongoing along and ahead of the
trailing composite cold front/convective outflow. At the same time,
a surface warm front will lift slowly northward across Lower
Michigan. To the south of this front, and ahead of the cold
front/outflow, a moist airmass, characterized by low-to-mid 60Fs
dewpoints should be in place. Despite the strongest large-scale
ascent being displaced to the north and west of the warm sector and
weak midlevel lapse rates atop the warm sector, pockets of
insolation should be sufficient to destabilize the environment
enough to support some convective redevelopment along and ahead of
the composite outflow/cold front. Modest instability will combine
with seasonably strong low-level wind fields to support a convective
wind threat and an isolated tornado threat along the leading edge of
any sustained linear segments.
... Tennessee Valley southwest to eastern Texas ...
Widespread thunderstorms are expected to be ongoing across the
western portions of this area at the start of the forecast period.
These thunderstorms will likely be driven by convergence along the
east/southeast moving composite cold front/convective outflow
boundary, with the exact western edge of any severe threat
demarcated by where this boundary is located at the start of the
forecast period. Seasonably high precipitable water values should
support some threat for strong wind gusts in the most intense
thunderstorm cores. These thunderstorms are expected to continue
through the day, despite weakening large-scale ascent and vertical
wind shear as the midlevel low pulls farther away. Given the
seasonably high precipitable water values, modest insolation should
support MUCAPE values between 500 and 1000 J/kg (perhaps as high as
1500 J/kg) across portions of Texas, Louisiana, and Mississippi.
This may support a re-intensification of ongoing convection which
would be capable of sporadic damaging downbursts
..Marsh/Chalmers.. 04/04/2026
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SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0223 AM CDT Sat Apr 04 2026
Valid 061200Z - 071200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected on Monday in
south-central Florida and over parts of the Desert Southwest, but no
severe threat is forecast.
...DISCUSSION...
An upper-level trough and an associated mid-level jet streak will
move across the Great Lakes on Monday, as a cold front advances
southward into northern Florida. To the south of the front,
scattered thunderstorms are expected to form within a moist airmass
over the southern and central Florida Peninsula during the
afternoon. Deep-layer shear is forecast to be near or below 20
knots, suggesting the storms will remain below severe limits.
Additional thunderstorms are expected to form in the Desert
Southwest. No severe threat is forecast across the continental U.S.
Monday and Monday night.
..Broyles.. 04/04/2026
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Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0344 AM CDT Sat Apr 04 2026
Valid 071200Z - 121200Z
...DISCUSSION...
...Tuesday/Day 4 and Wednesday/Day 5...
A large area of surface high pressure will settle in across the
continental U.S. on Tuesday and Wednesday. The associated dry and
cool airmass will limit thunderstorm potential in most areas.
...Thursday/Day 6 to Saturday/Day 8...
On Thursday, a cold front is forecast to move southward into the
central Plains and stall, as moisture advection takes place to the
south of the front over much of the southern Plains. A dryline is
forecast to setup over west Texas Thursday afternoon. Thunderstorm
development will be likely along parts of the front and to the east
of the dryline. An isolated severe threat will be possible in the
afternoon and evening. Models differ considerably on the
distribution of instability, with some suggesting that instability
will remain relatively weak. This would keep any severe threat
marginal in most areas.
On Friday and Saturday, a moist and unstable airmass is forecast to
be in place over the southern half of Texas, as a shortwave trough
moves northeastward across the region. Lift associated with this
feature would support scattered thunderstorm development. The
greatest severe potential both Friday and Saturday appears to be
across south-central Texas, where the models have moderate
deep-layer shear and sufficient instability. At this extended range,
uncertainty concerning magnitude and spacing is substantial.
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SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0112 AM CDT Sat Apr 04 2026
Valid 041200Z - 051200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
...Synopsis...
A potent mid-level trough and attendant surface low will progress
northeastward across the Great Lakes region today, with upper-level
ridging building across the West. A trailing cold front will
progress east-southeastward across the Mississippi/Ohio River
Valleys and southern Texas, with high pressure building into the
Great Plains. Cooler temperatures and improving minimum RH values
are expected to preclude widespread fire weather concerns.
...Portions of the Texas Rollings Plains into southern New Mexico
and southeastern Arizona...
High resolution guidance continues to depict the potential for
locally elevated fire weather concerns from portions of the Texas
Rolling Plains into southern New Mexico/southeastern Arizona where
sustained northeasterly to easterly surface winds around 15 mph may
briefly overlap reduced RH below 20%. The best chance for locally
elevated fire weather conditions appears to be across the Lowland
Desert of southwestern New Mexico into the San Simon Valley of
southeastern Arizona where terrain effects may locally enhance
sustained winds amid low RH values of 15-20%. Uncertainty in the
duration and areal extent of winds above 15 mph precludes the
addition of Elevated highlights at this time.
Farther east across portions of the Texas Rolling Plains, recent and
ongoing precipitation is expected to limit widespread fire weather
concerns. Locally elevated conditions will be possible for areas
that did not see appreciable rainfall accumulation over the last 48
hours, however.
..Chalmers.. 04/04/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
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SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0114 AM CDT Sat Apr 04 2026
Valid 051200Z - 061200Z
...Synopsis...
Upper-level ridging will be in place across the West on D2/Sunday,
with longwave upper-level troughing across the Great
Lakes/Northeast. At the surface, high pressure will remain in place
across the central Great Plains while a cold front progresses
eastward across the East Coast and Southeast. A second cold front
will simultaneously move southward across the northern Great Plains.
...Portions of the Southern High Plains...
A tightened pressure gradient on the western periphery of the
aforementioned surface high will favor sustained 15-20 mph
south-southeasterly return flow across the southern High Plains.
With no appreciable moisture return and only limited mid/high cloud
cover expected, diurnal heating/mixing are forecast to result in RH
values dropping to 10-20% across much of southern High Plains. This
combination of winds and RH atop dry, receptive fuels should promote
elevated fire weather conditions for at least a few hours Sunday
afternoon. Trends will be monitored for a potential southward
expansion of Elevated highlights; however, uncertainty owing to
greater mid/high cloud cover and more marginal RH values precludes
such an expansion at this time.
..Chalmers.. 04/04/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
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