RSS Mesoscale Discussions from Storm Prediction Center
No watches are valid as of Sun Feb 8 00:40:02 UTC 2026.
No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Sun Feb 8 00:40:02 UTC 2026.
SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0636 PM CST Sat Feb 07 2026
Valid 080100Z - 081200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated thunderstorms over southeast Arizona will diminish this
evening with negligible thunder potential tonight.
...Discussion...
Quiescent thunder potential is anticipated across the CONUS tonight.
An exception is across southeast AZ where quasi-stationary
thunderstorms have occurred in the late afternoon over the higher
terrain in parts of Cochise and Santa Cruz counties. This activity
should rapidly dissipate over the next hour as nocturnal
boundary-layer cooling accelerates amid limited large-scale ascent.
..Grams.. 02/08/2026
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SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0158 PM CST Sat Feb 07 2026
Valid 072000Z - 081200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not forecast through tonight.
...Southeast AZ...
No changes have been made to the ongoing forecast. A few
thunderstorms are possible this afternoon and evening over parts of
southeast AZ. Otherwise, dry and stable conditions will prevail.
..Hart.. 02/07/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1019 AM CST Sat Feb 07 2026/
...Synopsis...
Recent satellite imagery shows a well-defined upper low centered
just west of northern Baja Peninsula. This imagery also shows a
low-amplitude shortwave trough ejecting northeastward ahead of this
low towards the Southwest US. Some showers are already ongoing
across southwest NM ahead of this shortwave, and the expectation is
that precipitation coverage, and perhaps intensity, will increase
throughout the afternoon as lift and low/mid-level moisture also
increase ahead of the approaching shortwave. The increasing
low/mid-level moisture combined with cooling mid-level temperatures
will support modest buoyancy, and the potential for a few
thunderstorms, largely during the late afternoon across southeast AZ
and southwest NM.
Farther east, expansive high pressure will cover much of the CONUS
from the MS Valley eastward, promoting dry and stable conditions.
Lee troughing is anticipated over the High Plains with modest
cyclogenesis yielding a weak low that then moves across NE/SD
tonight. Dry and stable conditions here will preclude thunderstorms
as well.
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SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0358 PM CST Sat Feb 07 2026
Valid 091200Z - 151200Z
Mid-level flow over the CONUS is forecast to intensify and shift
southward as upper troughing over the East weakens. As stronger
zonal flow aloft becomes established, several shortwave
perturbations will move over the Rockies and into the Plains next
week. Periods of stronger westerly flow will likely support more
active fire-weather conditions in the High Plains early next week.
general amplification of the pattern should continue into next
weekend, likely with an increase dry conditions and fire danger over
the central and Southwestern US.
...High Plains...
Several perturbations within the increasingly zonal flow regime will
pass over the Rockies next week. A southern stream trough moving out
of northern Mexico will allow for modest lee cyclogenesis D3/Monday
over parts of NM and southern CO. Dry and breezy downslope
conditions are possible south of the low with RH below 20% expected
across portions of eastern NM and west TX D3/Monday. This will
likely support a few hours of elevated fire-weather potential
despite fuels that are only modestly receptive to fire spread.
Farther north into parts of the central High Plains, a stronger
upper trough will move over the northern Rockies also supporting
strong downslope winds. A surface cold front will also move south
bolstering surface winds over parts of CO/WY and NE. Downslope winds
of 20-30 mph are possible. However, uncertainty exists on how dry
surface conditions will be given the cooler temperatures and cloud
cover associated with the front. Still, unusually dry fuels and a
few hours of strong winds and lower RH should support elevated
fire-weather conditions D3/Monday.
Episodic troughing will continue over the Rockies and Plains next
week with the overall pattern gradually amplifying into next
weekend. Ensemble spread increases by mid week but does hint at
strong troughing and increasing fire-weather potential into week two
across the Plains and Southwest. For now confidence in dry/windy
conditions and the return of Gulf Moisture/precip precludes any
additional probabilities.
..Lyons.. 02/07/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
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