RSS Mesoscale Discussions from Storm Prediction Center
No watches are valid as of Sat Mar 28 11:07:02 UTC 2026.
No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Sat Mar 28 11:07:02 UTC 2026.
SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0219 AM CDT Sat Mar 28 2026
Valid 301200Z - 311200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PORTIONS OF THE
UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AND LAKE MICHIGAN VICINITY...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across portions
of the upper Mississippi River Valley and Lake Michigan vicinity
late Monday night into early Tuesday morning.
...Synopsis...
Zonal flow over the central to northern Rockies is forecast to
increase over the next 48-72 hours as an upper ridge shifts towards
the Southeast and a low-amplitude upper wave begins to translate
along the U.S./Canadian border. Lee cyclone development is
anticipated across the northern High Plains by early Monday with
steady intensification expected as it migrates east ahead of the
upper wave. The deepening surface low will promote northward
moisture return through the MS Valley and into the upper Great Lakes
region while eastward advection of 7-8 C/km mid-level lapse rates
takes place aloft. Thunderstorm development appears probable
overnight across the upper MS Valley and upper Great Lakes region as
isentropic ascent increases along the tightening warm frontal zone
of the cyclone.
Elsewhere, more isolated thunderstorms are possible along the
western FL Gulf coast where sea-breeze ascent within a moist and
weakly capped environment should support a few thunderstorms.
Similarly, isolated convection is possible across parts of the lower
MS Valley within a plume of rich low-level moisture. Another day of
isolated, high-based thunderstorms is expected across portions of
the Southwest. Weak deep-layer wind shear across these regions will
limit severe thunderstorm potential.
....Upper MS Valley/Lake Michigan...
The combination of low-level moistening and steepening lapse rates
aloft will support steady destabilization through Monday and into
Monday night. Model consensus is that 1500-2000 J/kg MUCAPE should
be in place by Monday evening across the southern WI region.
Initially dry and capped low-level profiles will likely preclude
thunderstorm development during the day, though increasing ascent
within the 925-850 mb warm frontal zone should increase thunderstorm
chances during the 00-06 UTC period. While elevated convection
appears likely, hodograph elongation through the CAPE-bearing layer
should support storm organization, including the potential for a
supercell or two. Although storm motions along the frontal zone hint
that some degree of clustering is probable, at least a localized
hail threat should materialize given the favorable buoyancy/shear
environment.
..Moore.. 03/28/2026
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Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0356 AM CDT Sat Mar 28 2026
Valid 311200Z - 051200Z
...DISCUSSION...
A return to a more seasonal upper-level regime will promote
strong/severe thunderstorm chances beginning D4/Tuesday and
potentially persisting into the upcoming weekend. A well-anticipated
upper-level regime shift remains likely late this weekend and into
early next week as an upper ridge over the south-central CONUS
de-amplifies and shifts east. The return to mean troughing over the
West will promote persistent lee troughing and southerly return flow
into the Plains and lower MS Valley. Long-range guidance depicts
several upper disturbances propagating across the northern and
central U.S. through late week, which may each support some risk of
strong/severe thunderstorms.
...D4/Tuesday...
A low-amplitude upper wave is forecast to traverse the U.S./Canadian
border and into the Great Lakes region Monday into Tuesday.
Northeastward moisture return ahead of an intensifying surface
cyclone and trailing cold front will likely establish a fairly broad
warm sector from the Ozarks into the Midwest/Great Lakes region.
Thunderstorm development along the cold front is expected by late
afternoon with most deterministic and ensemble guidance showing
strong QPF signals. Any severe weather threat will likely be focused
from central IL northeastward into northern IN/southern MI where
deep-layer wind shear will be stronger in proximity to the upper jet
and shear vectors should be more orthogonal to the front. While some
solutions depict favorable MLCAPE and shear for organized convection
(e.g. the 00z GFS), ensemble consensus shows muted probabilities for
a highly favorable convective environment (e.g. recent GEFS depicts
less than 20% probability for SCP values above 3). This suggests
that even though some severe threat will likely materialize,
considerable uncertainty remains regarding the quality of the
convective environment.
...D5/Wednesday and D6/Thursday...
Tuesday's cold front is expected to stall roughly along or south of
the OH River by the afternoon of D5/Wednesday. This will maintain a
moist warm sector across the southern Plains eastward to the TN
Valley. Strong to severe thunderstorm potential may emerge on
D5/Wednesday and D6/Thursday as an upper disturbance propagates
across the southern Plains and into the OH Valley and supports
ascent along and north of the stalled frontal zone. Given the
relatively focused nature of the wave and attendant mid-level jet,
widespread severe convection seems improbable, though a favorable
buoyancy/shear environment is possible in the vicinity of the
stalled front each afternoon.
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SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0235 AM CDT Sat Mar 28 2026
Valid 291200Z - 301200Z
...Synopsis...
A persistent upper-level ridge will begin to slide southeastward to
the far southern Great Plains on D2/Sunday, while enhanced, zonal
flow persists across the northern Rockies. At the surface, high
pressure will move offshore of the Mid-Atlantic Coast, bringing
return flow to much of the southern Plains and Southeast. A cold
front will begin to push southward across the northern Great Plains
and Northwest.
...Portions of the central/northern High Plains...
Modest westerly, mid-level flow will persist across portions of the
central/northern Rockies on D2/Sunday, favoring a dry, downslope
regime across much of Wyoming. Westerly winds of 15-25 mph are
expected to overlap low RH values of 10-20%. With receptive fuels in
place across the region, this will bring elevated fire weather
concerns to much of southern and central Wyoming into extreme
northern Colorado and the extreme western Nebraska Panhandle.
Consideration was given to a localized area of Critical highlights
across portions of central/southeast Wyoming, but uncertainty
remains regarding a more widespread overlap of RH less than 15% and
20+ mph winds at this time. Regardless, localized critical
conditions appears possible, and trends will be monitored for the
possibility of a future upgrade.
Some high-res guidance suggests that locally elevated conditions may
occur in association with a brief period of stronger surface winds
(15-20 mph) funneling down the North Platte River Valley farther
east across western Nebraska. However, most current guidance
suggests that winds will largely remain less than 15 mph across this
region. Thus, elevated highlights were withheld at this time despite
minimum RH values forecast around 10-20%.
...Southern Great Basin...
Dry and breezy flow is forecast across portions of the southern
Great Basin Sunday afternoon ahead of a weak, mid-level shortwave
trough. Elevated fire weather conditions are expected where
southwesterly winds of 15-20 mph, very low RH of 15-20%, and
abnormally dry fuels align.
...Northeastern New Mexico...
While mid-level flow is forecast to remain rather weak across much
of the southern Rockies, a corridor of marginally enhanced westerly
flow aloft is forecast to support dry, downslope winds across
portions of northeastern New Mexico. Sustained westerly winds of
15-20 mph are forecast to overlap very low RH of 10-15% for at least
a few hours Sunday afternoon. With receptive fuels in place across
the region, this will bring elevated fire weather concerns to
portions of northeastern New Mexico.
...Southern Arizona into southwestern New Mexico...
Weak southwesterly flow aloft along the northwestern periphery of an
upper-level ridge is forecast to yield increasing mid/upper level
Pacific moisture, with PWATs forecast to range from 0.5-0.8" by
Sunday afternoon. While better moisture appears to be delayed until
later Sunday night and into Monday, latest guidance depicts the
development of weak instability (~50-150 J/kg MUCAPE) across
portions of southern Arizona/southwestern New Mexico late Sunday
afternoon. Precipitation totals are forecast to be light, with deep,
dry boundary layers and LCLs around 3 km AGL. This should support at
least some potential for isolated dry thunder atop dry, receptive
fuels.
..Chalmers.. 03/28/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
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