RSS Mesoscale Discussions from Storm Prediction Center
WW 408 SEVERE TSTM MT 272220Z - 280500Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 408
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
420 PM MDT Sat Jun 27 2026
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of
Northeast Montana
* Effective this Saturday afternoon and evening from 420 PM until
1100 PM MDT.
* Primary threats include...
Scattered damaging winds and isolated significant gusts to 80
mph likely
Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2.5
inches in diameter likely
A tornado or two possible
SUMMARY...Strong to severe thunderstorms are expected to develop
across northeast Montana this afternoon and evening. A more cellular
mode is possible early in the convective cycle, but strong southerly
shear suggests storms will likely become linear quickly. Large to
very large hail is the primary hazards as storms are more cellular
while strong wind gusts (up to 80+ mph) are the primary hazard as
storms become linear. A low-probability tornado hazard will exist
this afternoon and evening as well.
The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 60
statute miles east and west of a line from 60 miles north of Wolf
Point MT to 55 miles west southwest of Glendive MT. For a complete
depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update
(WOUS64 KWNS WOU8).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.
&&
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 403...WW 404...WW
405...WW 406...WW 407...
AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
2.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 70 knots. A
few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector
23030.
...Mosier
Read more
WW 407 SEVERE TSTM CO NE 272115Z - 280500Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 407
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
315 PM MDT Sat Jun 27 2026
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of
Far Northeast Colorado
Western Nebraska
* Effective this Saturday afternoon and evening from 315 PM until
1100 PM MDT.
* Primary threats include...
Scattered damaging winds and isolated significant gusts to 80
mph possible
Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2.5
inches in diameter possible
A tornado or two possible
SUMMARY...At least widely scattered severe thunderstorms are
expected to develop, potentially including a few higher-based
supercells. Large hail and severe-caliber winds are expected to be
the primary hazard.
The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 60
statute miles east and west of a line from 65 miles north of
Scottsbluff NE to 45 miles south southwest of North Platte NE. For a
complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline
update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU7).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.
&&
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 403...WW 404...WW
405...WW 406...
AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
2.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 70 knots. A
few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 550. Mean storm motion vector
25025.
...Guyer
Read more
WW 406 TORNADO ND NE SD 272105Z - 280500Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Tornado Watch Number 406
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
305 PM MDT Sat Jun 27 2026
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Tornado Watch for portions of
Western North Dakota
Northern Nebraska
Western South Dakota
* Effective this Saturday afternoon and evening from 305 PM until
1100 PM MDT.
* Primary threats include...
A few tornadoes and a couple intense tornadoes possible
Scattered damaging winds likely with isolated significant gusts
to 90 mph possible
Scattered large hail likely with isolated very large hail events
to 3.5 inches in diameter possible
SUMMARY...Significant severe storms including supercells are
expected to develop regionally, with large hail and some tornadoes
possible. A prominent damaging wind threat may also unfold into this
evening across the western Dakotas.
The tornado watch area is approximately along and 60 statute miles
east and west of a line from 55 miles north northeast of Williston
ND to 75 miles southeast of Chadron NE. For a complete depiction of
the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS
WOU6).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for
tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch
area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for
threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements
and possible warnings.
&&
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 403...WW 404...WW 405...
AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail
surface and aloft to 3.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind
gusts to 80 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 550. Mean
storm motion vector 23030.
...Guyer
Read more
WW 405 SEVERE TSTM MT WY 271905Z - 280100Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 405
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
105 PM MDT Sat Jun 27 2026
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of
Southeast Montana
Northeast Wyoming
* Effective this Saturday afternoon and evening from 105 PM until
700 PM MDT.
* Primary threats include...
Scattered large hail likely with isolated very large hail events
to 2.5 inches in diameter possible
Scattered damaging winds and isolated significant gusts to 80
mph possible
A tornado or two possible
SUMMARY...Steady severe storm development including supercells are
expected relatively early today, steadily increasing through the
afternoon across the region, including the potential for very large
hail and severe-caliber wind gusts.
The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 75
statute miles east and west of a line from 60 miles south southwest
of Gillette WY to 25 miles north northwest of Miles City MT. For a
complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline
update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU5).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.
&&
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 403...WW 404...
AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
2.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 70 knots. A
few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector
22030.
...Guyer
Read more
WW 403 SEVERE TSTM IL KY MO TN 271755Z - 280100Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 403
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1255 PM CDT Sat Jun 27 2026
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of
Southern Illinois
Western and Central Kentucky
Far Southeast Missouri
Northern Tennessee
* Effective this Saturday afternoon and evening from 1255 PM
until 800 PM CDT.
* Primary threats include...
Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible
A tornado or two possible
SUMMARY...Clusters of storms and potentially some supercells are
expected within a very moist environment across the region this
afternoon.
The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 60
statute miles north and south of a line from 30 miles west southwest
of Cape Girardeau MO to 45 miles east northeast of Nashville TN. For
a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline
update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU3).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.
&&
AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
1 inch. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few
cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 550. Mean storm motion vector
29020.
...Guyer
Read more
WW 0408 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 408
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..KERR..06/27/26
ATTN...WFO...GGW...
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 408
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
MTC019-021-033-055-079-083-085-091-105-109-280040-
MT
. MONTANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
DANIELS DAWSON GARFIELD
MCCONE PRAIRIE RICHLAND
ROOSEVELT SHERIDAN VALLEY
WIBAUX
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
Read more
WW 0407 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 407
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..KERR..06/28/26
ATTN...WFO...BOU...LBF...CYS...
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 407
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
COC095-115-280140-
CO
. COLORADO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
PHILLIPS SEDGWICK
NEC005-013-029-033-045-049-063-069-075-085-091-101-111-113-117-
123-135-165-171-280140-
NE
. NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ARTHUR BOX BUTTE CHASE
CHEYENNE DAWES DEUEL
FRONTIER GARDEN GRANT
HAYES HOOKER KEITH
LINCOLN LOGAN MCPHERSON
MORRILL PERKINS SIOUX
THOMAS
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
Read more
WW 0406 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 406
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..KERR..06/28/26
ATTN...WFO...BIS...LBF...UNR...ABR...
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 406
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
NEC031-161-280140-
NE
. NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CHERRY SHERIDAN
NDC001-007-011-013-023-025-033-037-041-053-057-059-061-065-085-
087-089-105-280140-
ND
. NORTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ADAMS BILLINGS BOWMAN
BURKE DIVIDE DUNN
GOLDEN VALLEY GRANT HETTINGER
MCKENZIE MERCER MORTON
MOUNTRAIL OLIVER SIOUX
SLOPE STARK WILLIAMS
SDC007-019-031-041-055-063-071-081-093-102-103-105-137-280140-
SD
. SOUTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
Read more
WW 0405 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 405
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 SW RAP TO
30 S BHK TO 20 SW MLS TO 45 NW MLS.
SOUTHWESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA COUNTIES PROBABLY WILL BE LOCALLY EXTENDED
AN HOUR, OTHERWISE THE REMAIN VALID PORTION OF THE WW MAY BE
CANCELLED AT OR PRIOR TO 28/01Z.
..KERR..06/28/26
ATTN...WFO...BYZ...UNR...RIW...
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 405
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
MTC017-025-280100-
MT
. MONTANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CUSTER FALLON
SDC033-047-280100-
SD
. SOUTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CUSTER FALL RIVER
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
Read more
WW 0404 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 404
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 ESE GSO
TO 10 NE RDU TO 15 E RWI TO 45 SSW ECG TO 50 ENE ECG.
..CHALMERS..06/27/26
ATTN...WFO...MHX...AKQ...RAH...
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 404
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
NCC013-037-049-051-055-061-079-085-093-095-101-103-105-107-125-
147-163-177-183-191-195-272340-
NC
. NORTH CAROLINA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BEAUFORT CHATHAM CRAVEN
CUMBERLAND DARE DUPLIN
GREENE HARNETT HOKE
HYDE JOHNSTON JONES
LEE LENOIR MOORE
PITT SAMPSON TYRRELL
WAKE WAYNE WILSON
AMZ131-136-150-231-272340-
CW
. ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE
ALLIGATOR RIVER
PAMLICO AND PUNGO RIVERS
Read more
WW 0403 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 403
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 E MDH TO
45 SW EVV TO 20 NE OWB TO 35 WNW SDF TO 35 ESE BMG.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1357
..CHALMERS..06/27/26
ATTN...WFO...PAH...LMK...MEG...OHX...
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 403
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ILC003-069-087-127-151-153-181-280040-
IL
. ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ALEXANDER HARDIN JOHNSON
MASSAC POPE PULASKI
UNION
INC025-061-123-175-280040-
IN
. INDIANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CRAWFORD HARRISON PERRY
WASHINGTON
KYC003-007-009-027-031-033-035-039-047-055-059-061-075-083-085-
091-093-099-105-107-123-139-141-143-145-149-157-163-177-183-213-
219-221-227-233-280040-
Read more
MD 1358 CONCERNING TORNADO AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCHES 406...407... FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA INTO THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE
Mesoscale Discussion 1358
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0710 PM CDT Sat Jun 27 2026
Areas affected...portions of southwestern South Dakota into the
Nebraska Panhandle
Concerning...Tornado and Severe Thunderstorm Watches 406...407...
Valid 280010Z - 280145Z
The severe weather threat for Tornado and Severe Thunderstorm
Watches 406, 407 continues.
SUMMARY...Isolated to widely scattered convection continues to pose
a risk for primarily large hail and damaging wind gusts.
DISCUSSION...Isolated to widely scattered supercells have developed
across far southwestern South Dakota and northwestern Nebraska as of
2350 UTC to the west of a diffuse dryline. In the near-term, the
primary risk associated with this convection will be large to very
large hail (perhaps to 2.5+ inches in diameter) given strong
effective shear, elongated hodographs, and ample buoyancy within the
hail growth zone (as supported by SHIP values ranging form 1-3+ per
latest objective analysis). Recent high-res guidance and regional
radar imagery suggest that rapid upscale growth may occur with the
ongoing convection across southwestern South Dakota, which would
favor a transition towards damaging/severe wind gusts as the primary
risk. Farther south, ongoing convection is likely to remain more
isolated within the Nebraska Panhandle, with large to very large
hail and damaging wind gusts being possible with supercells.
Additional development farther south into southwestern Nebraska
remains uncertain at this time.
Some increase in tornado potential may occur with time and as
convection progresses eastward given greater moisture to the east of
the diffuse dryline and a strengthening nocturnal low-level jet that
will yield increasingly clockwise-curved low-level hodographs. A
more linear storm mode and greater convective inhibition/capping to
the east of the dryline lend uncertainty to the magnitude of the
tornado risk, however. The greatest risk for a tornado is likely to
occur with any discrete supercell that can persist farther east into
this evening.
..Chalmers.. 06/28/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...LBF...UNR...BOU...CYS...
LAT...LON 42850344 43350333 44010309 44450267 44570214 44510176
44290145 43770139 42630136 41790140 41220147 40990164
40850201 40800247 41030294 41680332 42170338 42850344
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-110 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...2.00-3.50 IN
Read more
MD 1356 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 405...408... FOR PARTS OF EASTERN MONTANA INTO THE WESTERN DAKOTAS
Mesoscale Discussion 1356
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0615 PM CDT Sat Jun 27 2026
Areas affected...parts of eastern Montana into the western Dakotas
Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 405...408...
Valid 272315Z - 280115Z
The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 405, 408
continues.
SUMMARY...Storms posing a risk for large hail and localized
downbursts will transition to primarily broader swaths of strong to
severe wind gusts through 6-8 PM MDT.
DISCUSSION...Forcing for ascent associated with one or two short
wave impulses pivoting around the eastern periphery of the
large-scale upstream low continues to support increasing
thunderstorm development off the higher terrain and within the lee
surface troughing. This includes a couple of notable clusters
spreading north and northeast of the Big Horns and one progressing
across the northeastern international border area. Strongest
boundary-layer instability is focused in higher moisture content to
the east of the surface trough axis, but modestly moist upslope flow
to the west of the trough axis appears unstable enough to maintain
upscale growth during the next few hours.
Gradually, the severe hail and localized damaging downburst threat
will shift to primarily a broader strong to severe gust threat with
enlarging, strengthening and consolidating surface cold pools, which
should tend to surge east-northeastward toward the western Dakotas
state border vicinity as they consolidate toward 00-02Z.
..Kerr.. 06/27/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...BIS...UNR...BYZ...GGW...
LAT...LON 48770447 47440326 45400399 45510628 47470652 48120623
48770447
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-110 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...75-90 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN
Read more
SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0300 PM CDT Sat Jun 27 2026
Valid 272000Z - 281200Z
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS...
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY TO THE CAROLINAS...
...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are likely today across the northern High
Plains including northeast Wyoming and eastern Montana into the
western Dakotas, with storms capable of very large hail, very strong
outflow winds (80+ mph), and tornadoes late this afternoon into
tonight.
...20Z Update...
The previous forecast remains on track, and only minor adjustments
were made with this update. The ENH risk was expanded slightly
southwestward in northeastern WY, where several discrete supercell
have evolved off the Bighorn Mountains -- posing a risk of large to
very large hail.
In western ND, the CIG1 tornado area was extended slightly
northward. Continued diurnal heating amid upper 60s dewpoints will
yield moderate-strong surface-based buoyancy and minimal inhibition.
Backed surface winds beneath strengthening flow aloft will
contribute to favorably curved hodographs. Any storms that can form
or move into this environment will conditionally support a strong
tornado.
Farther east, the SLGT risk was expanded northward in the lower OH
Valley. Here, diurnal heating/destabilization of a very moist air
mass (upper 70s dewpoints) will continue to support loosely
organized thunderstorm clusters capable of producing widely
scattered damaging winds this afternoon.
..Weinman.. 06/27/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1142 AM CDT Sat Jun 27 2026/
...Northern High Plains this afternoon into tonight...
A rather active severe-weather scenario is anticipated regionally
later today, including the potential for intense/locally significant
severe storms. A lead shortwave trough/speed max will continue to
approach through late today, with the exit region of a strong
upper-level jet overspreading the region including 50+ kt
southwesterlies above 5km AGL. Boundary-layer dewpoints in the 60s F
will continue to spread northward regionally, to the east of a
deepening surface low across northeast Wyoming toward the far
western Dakotas, and a sharpening lee trough/dryline across a more
prevalent north/south extent of the High Plains. This low-level
moistening will occur beneath a plume of steep mid-level lapse rates
emanating from the Great Basin and north-central Rockies.
Initial surface-based development is expected near the surface
low/trough near the Big Horn Mountains toward the
Wyoming/Montana/North Dakota border vicinity. The maturing stronger
initial storms will almost certainly be supercellular owing to
moderate to large CAPE and a strong wind field. The risk for large
to very large hail (2-3 inches in diameter) is greatest near this
aforementioned border region where supercells are forecast early in
the convective life cycle, although additional/somewhat more
discrete development will also likely occur a bit later farther
southeastward across northwest South Dakota.
A few tornadoes are also possible particularly in the more
moisture-rich environment near the surface triple point, but
relatively large temperature-dewpoint spreads and a transition to
upscale growth may temper the tornado threat, particularly with
northward extent either side of the Montana/North Dakota border
vicinity. As more storms develop leading to storm mergers and
coalescing outflow, a linear cluster will likely develop into a
maturing/accelerating bow echo into western North Dakota this
evening, with significant/intense thunderstorm winds (80+ mph)
possible.
Severe storms will likely develop eastward tonight across the
Dakotas, and prior to that, diurnally enhanced, but more isolated
intense, development is plausible as far south as western Nebraska
with large hail and damaging winds.
...Northern Intermountain West including northern UT/western WY...
Influenced by a lead shortwave trough/speed max associated with the
prominent upper-level trough centered over the Pacific Northwest,
strong to locally severe thunderstorm potential will probably exist
early today. The prolifically strong wind field and modest
destabilization will tend to focus today across northern Utah,
southeast Idaho into western Wyoming, including the Star Valley
vicinity. Severe-caliber wind gusts and some hail may occur.
...Mid-South/Tennessee/southern Kentucky to North Carolina...
Multiple MCVs, including across far south-central Missouri and
southeast Kansas at midday, will influence the region as they
progress east-southward generally toward Kentucky and Tennessee.
Related flow enhancement is evident in regional WSR-88d VWP data,
and particularly in the 12z Lamont, OK observed sounding (40+ kt
4-9km AGL). See Mesoscale Discussion 1346 for additional short-term
details.
These MCVs will influence and semi-focus thunderstorm development
within a moist and increasingly unstable boundary layer from the
southeast Missouri/northeast Arkansas border vicinity into Kentucky
and Tennessee. This includes the possibility of some supercells and
well-organized clusters in the presence of 35-40 kt effective shear.
Pockets of wind damage will be the most common risk, but some
tornado potential will exist as well. Additional severe storms
capable of wind damage are also expected farther eastward into the
Carolinas this afternoon through around mid-evening.
...Texas Panhandle/West Texas late this afternoon/evening...
Though forcing for ascent will be weak at best this far south,
strong surface heating/mixing along the lee trough/dryline could
support high-based thunderstorm development late this afternoon.
Inverted-V profiles will favor the potential for isolated severe
outflow gusts of 60-75 mph.
Read more
SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0401 PM CDT Sat Jun 27 2026
Valid 291200Z - 051200Z
...Synopsis...
A shortwave trough will dive into the Interior West on Day 3/Monday,
promoting strong southwesterly flow across the Southwest into the
central Rockies before gradually exiting the region on Day
4/Tuesday. Persistent troughing, enhanced flow aloft, and an
established dry airmass will allow fire weather threats to continue
through next week across the Great Basin and Southwest. Meanwhile, a
strong ridge of high pressure will build across the central-eastern
CONUS through the forecast period, promoting widespread above normal
temperatures with mostly dry conditions.
...Days 3-4/Monday-Tuesday...
Elevated southwesterly flow associated with persistent upper-level
troughing will maintain fire weather concerns across the Southwest
and Great Basin early next week. Hot, dry, and breezy conditions
(albeit weaker than previous days) will further intensify the fire
environment where extremely dry fuels exist, maintaining 40%
Critical probabilities.
...Days 6-7/Thursday-Friday...
Ensembles depict dry and breezy conditions may continue across the
southwestern CONUS through the end of next week. As the western U.S.
upper trough begins to lift northward, resultant accelerating
south-southwesterly flow aloft should permit fire weather concerns
to return across the Southwest and Great Basin. As such, 40%
Critical probabilities have been introduced. The spatial extent of
these probabilities may change in future outlooks as the progression
of the overall synoptic pattern is better resolved.
..Elizalde-Garcia.. 06/27/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
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