RSS Mesoscale Discussions from Storm Prediction Center
No watches are valid as of Mon Jul 6 16:35:02 UTC 2026.
No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Mon Jul 6 16:35:02 UTC 2026.
SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0731 AM CDT Mon Jul 06 2026
Valid 061300Z - 071200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE EASTERN DAKOTAS AND WESTERN MINNESOTA AS WELL AS CENTRAL
VIRGINIA INTO FAR NORTH-CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA...
...SUMMARY...
Widely scattered severe thunderstorms capable of large to very large
hail and severe wind gusts appear possible across the eastern
Dakotas and western Minnesota this afternoon and evening. Isolated
to scattered damaging wind gusts will also be possible with the
strongest storms in the southern Mid-Atlantic and Carolinas.
...Upper Mississippi Valley into north-central Nebraska...
Early-morning surface analysis reveals a low over far southwest
Manitoba, with a cold front extending southwestward from this low
into southeast MT and then westward across south-central MT. This
surface low and associated cold front precede a well-defined
shortwave trough currently moving through southern Saskatchewan.
This shortwave is forecast to continue eastward today, with the
attendant surface low and cold front progressing eastward as well. A
warm and moist airmass will precede this cold front, with afternoon
highs ranging from the upper 80s/low 90s across eastern SD/northwest
MN into the upper 90s/low 100s from central SD into central NE.
Boundary-layer mixing will be offset by modest low-level moisture
advection, likely keeping dewpoints in the mid to upper 60s over
much of the region. These warm and moist conditions will help
destabilize the airmass, despite relatively warm mid-level
temperatures at the base of a northeastward-advecting EML. Over 2000
J/kg of MLCAPE will likely be in place by the mid afternoon, with a
pocket of 3000 J/kg possible across southeast SD by the late
afternoon.
Thunderstorm development is anticipated first across western ND and
northwest MN as the cold front interacts with this buoyant airmass,
with ascent along the front augmented by modest lift along the
southern periphery of the shortwave trough. Enhanced mid-level flow
will exist within the base of this shortwave as well, with the
resulting combination of buoyancy and shear supportive of supercells
early in the convective cycle, with large hail as the primary
hazard. Some instances of hail in excess of two inches are possible.
A somewhat quick transition to a more linear mode appears likely
given the frontal forcing, close storm proximity, and likelihood of
strong cold pools. Severe gusts will be the primary hazard once this
upscale growth occurs.
Lower storm coverage is anticipated with southward extent from
central SD into northern NE. Here, weaker shear is expected to limit
the potential for organized storm modes, though isolated occurrences
of hail and severe wind gusts appear possible with the strongest
storms.
...Mid-Atlantic into the Carolinas...
A hot and very moist boundary layer is forecast in the vicinity of
a lee trough this afternoon, with MLCAPE generally from 1500-2500
J/kg. Forcing for ascent will be weak, with convergence along the
lee trough as the primary impetus for convective initiation.
Vertical shear will be weak, but scattered coverage and an
outflow-dominant storm mode will support the potential for upscale
growth into loosely organized clusters. Relatively high storm bases
and steep low-level lapse rates will enhance downdraft potential
with a risk for damaging wind gusts with the strongest storms.
Highest coverage is expected from central VA into far north-central
NC.
...Northern Great Basin into southern Montana and northern
Wyoming...
Early-morning satellite imagery shows a shortwave trough moving into
southwestern ID. This shortwave is forecast to continue
northeastward across ID and western MT, moving within the
northwestern periphery of an upper ridge centered over the Four
Corners. Mid-level moisture and ascent associated with this
shortwave will result in isolated to scattered thunderstorms across
the region during the afternoon and evening. Moderate mid-level flow
(i.e. 35-40 kt winds at 500 mb) will accompany this wave as well,
resulting in sufficient deep-layer shear to support at least
episodic supercell and bowing structures capable of damaging winds
and isolated hail.
...Lower MS Valley...
A notable vorticity maximum is currently moving southward from
southwest MO into northwest AR, with slow southward/southeastward
progression of this vorticity maximum expected throughout the day.
Ample low-level moisture exists over the region, supporting diurnal
airmass destabilization and the development of strong buoyancy (i.e.
MLCAPE from 2000 to 3000 J/kg) by the afternoon. Scattered to
numerous thunderstorms are anticipated as the vorticity max moves
through this environment. Vertical shear will be weak, limiting
storm organization, but a few strong downdrafts are still possible.
Isolated occurrences of marginally severe hail are possible as well.
..Mosier/Dean.. 07/06/2026
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SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1128 AM CDT Mon Jul 06 2026
Valid 061630Z - 071200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF
THE MID-ATLANTIC...NORTHERN PLAINS...AND THE ARKLATEX REGION...
...SUMMARY...
Widely scattered severe thunderstorms capable of large hail and
severe wind gusts appear possible across the eastern Dakotas and
western Minnesota this afternoon and evening. Isolated to scattered
damaging wind gusts will also be possible with the strongest storms
in the southern Mid-Atlantic, Carolinas, and ArkLaTex regions.
...MN/ND...
Morning water vapory imagery shows a fast-moving shortwave trough
over southern Manitoba, with its associated surface cold front
sagging southward across ND. This front will serve as the focus for
scattered thunderstorm development by mid-afternoon from northern MN
into eastern ND. Strong heating ahead of the front and dewpoints
near 70F will yield MLCAPE over 3000 J/kg. Forecast soundings show
relatively steep mid-level lapse rates and favorable deep-layer
shear for supercells capable of large hail and severe wind gusts.
These storms may persist through the evening, spreading southward
into central MN and eastern SD.
...Mid Atlantic/Carolinas...
Another day of scattered afternoon thunderstorms will affect much of
the Mid Atlantic and Carolinas region today. Vertical shear and
steering flow is rather weak, suggesting storms will be poorly
organized. However, strong heating and steep low-level lapse rates,
combined with substantial CAPE in forecast soundings, suggest that
the strongest cells will pose the risk of damaging wind gusts over a
relatively broad area again today.
...AR/LA/OK/TX...
Strong heating and ample low-level moisture will lead to scattered
afternoon thunderstorms again today over much of AR, southeast OK,
northeast TX, and northern LA. This is near a mid-level trough
where lapse rates and mid-level temperatures are more favorable for
robust up/downdrafts capable of damaging wind gusts. Have opted for
a small SLGT risk for parts of this area where convective coverage
appears highest.
...Northern UT into WY...
Scattered high-based fast-moving thunderstorms are expected this
afternoon over northern UT, moving northeastward into western and
northern WY. The strongest of these cells will pose a risk of
damaging wind gusts.
..Hart/Weinman.. 07/06/2026
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SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1133 AM CDT Mon Jul 06 2026
Valid 061700Z - 071200Z
...Morning Update...
The forecast remains on track for dry/windy conditions and isolated
dry thunderstorms across portions of the Four Corners and Great
Basin this afternoon. Residual mid-level moisture -- as portrayed by
REV's 12z sounding and various afternoon forecast soundings for the
rest of the region -- will interact with an ejecting shortwave
trough and daytime instability to develop high based convection. Dry
sub-cloud layers and 0.6-0.8" PWATs will encourage less
precipitation efficiency initially, maintaining lightning ignition
potential where critically dry fuels exist. A transition to a mixed
wet/dry thunderstorm threat will occur in the evening as PWATs
increase, most likely in northwestern NM and eastern AZ. See the
previous discussion for more information.
..Elizalde-Garcia.. 07/06/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0120 AM CDT Mon Jul 06 2026/
...Synopsis...
A combination of dry thunderstorms and dry/windy conditions will
pose fire weather concerns for portions of the Four Corners and
northern Great Basin for today. Early-morning water-vapor imagery
continues to show an upper ridge over the Four Corners region with
an embedded shortwave trough evident across the northern Great
Basin. This feature will promote not only thunderstorm chances
across much of the Great Basin, but should also result in dry/windy
conditions across parts of NV, UT, and AZ.
...Dry Thunderstorms...
The 00 UTC MFR RAOB sampled a PWAT value of 0.96 inches, which is
higher than previously anticipated by model guidance. Consequently,
MRMS QPE and surface stations have reported pockets of wetting
rainfall up to 0.25 inches associated with thunderstorms across
southern OR late Sunday evening/early Monday morning. Regional
soundings further east into the Four Corners region sampled a drier
air mass (especially within the boundary layer), but GOES PWAT
imagery suggests higher-quality moisture is advecting northward into
western NV ahead of the upper-level disturbance. This will likely
favor wet thunderstorms across northern CA into southern OR where
most guidance shows a consistent signal for wetting rainfall, which
warranted removal from the dry thunderstorm risk area. A mix of wet
and dry thunderstorms across the CA/OR/NV tri-state region should
transition to predominantly dry thunderstorms with southeastward
extent towards the Four Corners region on the fringe of the
mid-level moisture plume. In general, fuels remain very dry across
the broader region and should support lightning ignitions outside of
where heavier precipitation cores have occurred (mainly over
northern NV/southern OR) over the past 12-24 hours.
...Eastern Nevada into Utah and Arizona...
Modest surface pressure falls across the northern Great Basin
through the afternoon will result in increasing southerly winds
across southeast NV into adjacent portions of UT and AZ. Latest
ensemble guidance continues to show reasonably strong probabilities
for sustained winds near 15 mph with gusts upwards of 20-30 mph.
Relative humidity values should fall to near 15% as temperatures
climb into the 90s, resulting in areas of elevated fire weather
conditions. While confidence in elevated conditions is greatest
across southeast NV into southwest UT, more aggressive solutions
suggests elevated conditions may extend into eastern UT.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
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