RSS Mesoscale Discussions from Storm Prediction Center
No watches are valid as of Fri Feb 20 04:02:02 UTC 2026.
MD 0104 CONCERNING HEAVY SNOW FOR PORTIONS OF IOWA
Mesoscale Discussion 0104
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0607 PM CST Thu Feb 19 2026
Areas affected...Portions of Iowa
Concerning...Heavy snow
Valid 200007Z - 200600Z
SUMMARY...Snow rates possibly exceeding 1 inch per hour are expected
from western into central Iowa this evening.
DISCUSSION...Water-vapor imagery suggests significant midlevel
drying is spreading across southeast NE into southern IA, just south
of expected 700mb low track. Latest radar data supports this with a
well-developed corridor of heavy snow currently noted across eastern
NE into western IA. Large-scale ascent is beginning to increase
downstream into central IA, and precipitation is gradually expanding
into this region within the warm advection zone. Forecast soundings
exhibit steep midlevel lapse rates across central IA, and
reflectively suggests some convective nature with this new
development that is spreading north. Over the next few hours a
southwest-northeast oriented band of heavy snow should establish
itself as the 700mb circulation advances east. Snow rates could
exceed 1 inch per hour at times.
..Darrow.. 02/20/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...DVN...ARX...DMX...FSD...OAX...
LAT...LON 41199564 41499378 42119201 43019227 42729386 42109584
41199564
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SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0658 PM CST Thu Feb 19 2026
Valid 200100Z - 201200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN
ILLINOIS ACROSS INDIANA AND SOUTHWEST OHIO...AND OVER NORTHERN
KENTUCKY...
...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms including a tornado or two, large hail and
sporadic damaging gusts remain possible across parts of the Midwest
and lower Ohio Valley this evening.
...Discussion...
Scattered strong to severe storms persist this evening from the
surface low in central IL eastward along a warm front into central
IN/northern KY. Area soundings at 00Z show modest instability, with
moderately steep lapse rates mainly below 500 mb. However, a warm
layer continues to spread across the area out of the southwest,
which is limiting instability. Deep layer shear remains strong
across the entire region, conditionally favorable for hail
production. Low-level shear in association with the warm front and
40-50 kt 850 mb flow will also support a continued supercell and
possibly tornado risk primarily along the warm front. Otherwise,
sufficient elevated instability ahead of the low may support
sporadic marginal hail from IL across the remainder of IN and OH.
For southern KY into TN, more of a conditional risk of strong to
severe storms remains. The 00Z BNA sounding shows a supercell wind
profile, with modest moisture/instability. As the cold front pushed
east this evening, a supercell or two cannot be ruled out assuming
weak convergence along the front is enough to initiate storms.
For more information see mesoscale discussion 103.
..Jewell.. 02/20/2026
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