RSS Mesoscale Discussions from Storm Prediction Center
WW 425 SEVERE TSTM CO KS OK TX 302055Z - 010300Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 425
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
355 PM CDT Tue Jun 30 2026
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of
Southeast Colorado
Western Kansas
Oklahoma Panhandle
Texas Panhandle and South Plains
* Effective this Tuesday afternoon and evening from 355 PM until
1000 PM CDT.
* Primary threats include...
Scattered damaging winds likely with isolated significant gusts
to 85 mph possible
Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2.5
inches in diameter possible
SUMMARY...Widely scattered severe thunderstorms are expected to
increase through early evening regionally, with these storms capable
of large hail and severe-caliber wind gusts. An organized cluster of
storms may evolve this evening particularly across western Kansas.
The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 60
statute miles east and west of a line from 60 miles northwest of
Hill City KS to 25 miles southwest of Plainview TX. For a complete
depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update
(WOUS64 KWNS WOU5).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.
&&
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 423...WW 424...
AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
2.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 75 knots. A
few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 600. Mean storm motion vector
24025.
...Guyer
Read more
WW 424 SEVERE TSTM MN WI LM 302020Z - 010300Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 424
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
320 PM CDT Tue Jun 30 2026
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of
Southeast Minnesota
Wisconsin
Lake Michigan
* Effective this Tuesday afternoon and evening from 320 PM until
1000 PM CDT.
* Primary threats include...
Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2
inches in diameter possible
Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible
A tornado or two possible
SUMMARY...Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are expected to
intensify, generally near where storms moved through the region
earlier day. This renewed development may produce large hail and
damaging winds into this evening within a very moist and unstable
environment.
The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 45
statute miles north and south of a line from 40 miles north
northwest of Rochester MN to 45 miles northeast of Green Bay WI. For
a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline
update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU4).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.
&&
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 423...
AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A
few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 600. Mean storm motion vector
24025.
...Guyer
Read more
WW 423 SEVERE TSTM MA NY VT LO 301715Z - 010000Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 423
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
115 PM EDT Tue Jun 30 2026
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of
Far western Massachusetts
Central and Eastern New York
Far southern Vermont
Lake Ontario
* Effective this Tuesday afternoon and evening from 115 PM until
800 PM EDT.
* Primary threats include...
Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely
Isolated large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible
A tornado or two possible
SUMMARY...A well-organized and fast-moving cluster of storms will
continue southeastward this afternoon with a primary concern for
damaging winds as storms progress southeastward. Additional
peripheral development is also possible this afternoon across other
parts of the nearby region within an unstable air mass.
The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 70
statute miles east and west of a line from 25 miles north northwest
of Watertown NY to 55 miles east of Binghamton NY. For a complete
depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update
(WOUS64 KWNS WOU3).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.
&&
AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A
few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 600. Mean storm motion vector
31040.
...Guyer
Read more
WW 0425 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 425
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..KERR..06/30/26
ATTN...WFO...PUB...GLD...DDC...AMA...LUB...
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 425
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
COC009-099-302340-
CO
. COLORADO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BACA PROWERS
KSC023-039-051-055-057-063-065-067-069-071-075-081-083-093-101-
109-119-129-135-137-153-171-175-179-181-187-189-193-195-199-203-
302340-
KS
. KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CHEYENNE DECATUR ELLIS
FINNEY FORD GOVE
GRAHAM GRANT GRAY
GREELEY HAMILTON HASKELL
HODGEMAN KEARNY LANE
LOGAN MEADE MORTON
NESS NORTON RAWLINS
SCOTT SEWARD SHERIDAN
SHERMAN STANTON STEVENS
THOMAS TREGO WALLACE
WICHITA
Read more
WW 0424 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 424
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1403
..CHALMERS..06/30/26
ATTN...WFO...ARX...MPX...GRB...
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 424
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
MNC039-049-109-157-169-302340-
MN
. MINNESOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
DODGE GOODHUE OLMSTED
WABASHA WINONA
WIC009-011-017-019-029-033-035-053-061-067-069-073-075-078-083-
087-091-093-097-115-119-121-135-141-302340-
WI
. WISCONSIN COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BROWN BUFFALO CHIPPEWA
CLARK DOOR DUNN
EAU CLAIRE JACKSON KEWAUNEE
LANGLADE LINCOLN MARATHON
MARINETTE MENOMINEE OCONTO
OUTAGAMIE PEPIN PIERCE
PORTAGE SHAWANO TAYLOR
TREMPEALEAU WAUPACA WOOD
Read more
WW 0423 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 423
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 ESE ROC
TO 45 SSE UCA TO 30 SW ALB TO 10 NNW PSF TO 25 WNW EEN.
..CHALMERS..06/30/26
ATTN...WFO...ALY...BGM...BUF...BTV...
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 423
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
MAC003-302340-
MA
. MASSACHUSETTS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BERKSHIRE
NYC007-011-017-021-023-025-039-099-107-109-302340-
NY
. NEW YORK COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BROOME CAYUGA CHENANGO
COLUMBIA CORTLAND DELAWARE
GREENE SENECA TIOGA
TOMPKINS
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
Read more
MD 1404 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 425... FOR PARTS OF WESTERN KANSAS
Mesoscale Discussion 1404
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0545 PM CDT Tue Jun 30 2026
Areas affected...parts of western Kansas
Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 425...
Valid 302245Z - 010045Z
The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 425
continues.
SUMMARY...Substantive further intensification of an organizing
cluster of storms appears possible into early evening, accompanied
by a continuing risk for severe hail, and increasing potential to
produce swaths of strong to severe wind gusts.
DISCUSSION...Based on mesoanalysis output, strongest continuing
destabilization the past few hours has been focused across western
Kansas, due to further boundary-layer heating and moisture
advection. This is focused within deepening surface troughing,
where veering from modest near-surface southeasterlies beneath 30-40
kt southwesterlies around 500 mb are contributing to sufficient
shear for organized convective development. Rapid Refresh suggests
at least some further strengthening of flow/shear are possible into
early evening, in the presence of moderate to large potential
instability.
Aided by forcing for ascent associated with lower/mid-tropospheric
warm advection north of the Raton Ridge vicinity of southeastern
Colorado, an organizing cluster of storms, including one evolving
meso-beta scale cyclonic circulation has evolved. Although
mid-levels remain warm, and the onset of boundary-layer cooling will
result in increasing inhibition for boundary-layer parcels, the
environment appears conducive to considerable further
intensification of the ongoing cluster as it propagates
north-northeastward into early evening.
..Kerr.. 06/30/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...GID...DDC...GLD...AMA...PUB...
LAT...LON 38670195 39730129 39659888 38269977 37000097 36850164
37110206 38670195
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN
Read more
MD 1403 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 424... FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN WISCONSIN AND THE SOUTHERN UPPER PENINSULA OF MICHIGAN
Mesoscale Discussion 1403
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0533 PM CDT Tue Jun 30 2026
Areas affected...portions of eastern Wisconsin and the southern
Upper Peninsula of Michigan
Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 424...
Valid 302233Z - 010000Z
The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 424
continues.
SUMMARY...Potential for primarily damaging wind gusts and large hail
continues across portions of Severe Thunderstorm Watch 424,
including eastern Wisconsin and southern portions of the Michigan
Upper Peninsula.
DISCUSSION...Isolated to widely scattered convection has developed
along a weak surface boundary across portions of central/eastern
Wisconsin over the past 1-2 hours and has produced isolated reports
of small hail and damaging wind gusts. While effective shear remains
generally modest (25-35 kts) and low-to-mid level temperatures
remain relatively warm across the region, strong to extreme buoyancy
(4000-5000 J/kg per latest objective analysis) is expected to
continue to support strong to severe thunderstorms across this
region for another several hours. In the near-term, convection may
tend to remain discrete/semi-discrete with a greater threat for
large hail owing to modestly steep mid-level lapse rates (7-7.5
C/km). Some consolidation of cold pools over the next 1-2 hours may
then foster upscale growth and a transition towards damaging wind
gusts as the primary threat.
..Chalmers.. 06/30/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...MQT...GRB...
LAT...LON 44538724 44338748 44218787 44218831 44338865 44488882
44698893 44868886 45268861 45648833 45948798 46028756
45898704 45528688 45108695 44768706 44538724
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN
Read more
SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0257 PM CDT Tue Jun 30 2026
Valid 302000Z - 011200Z
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF WESTERN KANSAS...
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE SOUTHERN
HIGH PLAINS TO THE GREAT LAKES AND PARTS OF NEW ENGLAND...
...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms are still expected across parts of
the central High Plains, with severe wind gusts (60 to 85 mph) being
the primary hazard during the late afternoon and evening. Other
severe thunderstorms are still expected across the Great Lakes and
Northeast, as well as broader parts of the central Plains to middle
Missouri Valley.
...20Z Update...
The most noteworthy change made to the Day 1 Outlook for the 20Z
update was to join the two Slight Risk areas, driven by wind
probabilities, across the Plains to the Great Lakes. Furthermore,
the CIG1 area was expanded northeast into the Upper MS Valley.
Guidance consensus has consistently depicted a persistent region of
likely cold-pool-driven convection propagating around the upper
ridge periphery, from the central Plains this evening, toward the
Great Lakes through 12Z tomorrow morning. Uncertainty remains
regarding the overall morphology and evolution of this convection,
hence the constraining of severe wind probabilities to Category
2/Slight risk. However, overnight storms will traverse an elongated
axis of strong buoyancy, characterized by 8-9 C/km 700-500 mb lapse
rates atop 70+ F surface dewpoints (per 18Z OAX and GRB observed
soundings), along with forecast 30-40 kts of effective bulk shear.
As such, if more organized storm modes (particularly bow echoes) can
develop tonight, a couple of 75+ mph gusts could occur.
Otherwise, the previous forecast remains on track, with mainly minor
changes made to thunder and severe probabilities to reflect the
consensus among the latest observations and numerical guidance.
..Squitieri.. 06/30/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1150 AM CDT Tue Jun 30 2026/
...Southern/Central Plains...
Scattered thunderstorms are forecast later this afternoon over the
High Plains on the western rim of richer low-level moisture and
strong insolation. Model guidance shows considerable erosion of the
capping layer by mid-afternoon with MLCAPE ranging from 1500 J/kg
over the Texas South Plains to 3500 J/kg over western Kansas.
Initially higher-based convection will gradually move east into
richer moisture and promote larger thunderstorm cores and increased
potential for storm clusters to develop. Large hail will be possible
with any initial supercell activity (i.e., most probable from the
northern Texas Panhandle into Kansas; 25-40 kt effective shear).
However, very steep surface to 300-mb lapse rates will favor strong
evaporative cooling with the more intense cores. Ample deep-layer
shear will exist for organized storms, but veering/backing of flow
with height will aid in storm outflow aggregating as linear clusters
become the primary storm mode with time. These organized but linear
clusters will likely be efficient in promoting severe wind gusts
(60-85 mph) during the early evening, coincident with a
strengthening LLJ and WAA before this threat wanes by late evening.
Weaker deep-layer shear farther south in the southern High Plains
will likely limit both storm organization and overall coverage of
the wind risk.
Later into this evening, confidence has increased in mainly
nocturnal development in a post-frontal environment, that will
probably have its genesis by early evening in the vicinity of
northeast Colorado/southwest Nebraska. These storms will likely
increase/expand northeastward tonight with large hail and damaging
wind potential, which could actually increase and become somewhat
more prominent overnight across northern Nebraska/southeast South
Dakota and neighboring Siouxland as storms cluster and as the warm
front quickly shifts northward regionally.
...Upper Midwest/Great Lakes...
A few strong storms could occur early this afternoon across northern
Michigan, but primary concern is the potential for redevelopment
later today, potentially focused along a zone of modifying
outflow/differential heating, with robust instability to the south.
Although the degree of mid-level capping is a key uncertainty, where
storms do redevelop, ample tropospheric flow will support organized
storms, including supercells capable primarily of a hail/wind risk
and perhaps a tornado. Storms will likely become more probable and
increase this evening with at least some hail and wind potential
continuing tonight.
...Northeast States...
A cluster of storms over southeast Ontario at midday will likely
continue to progress southeastward over Lake Ontario toward northern
New York today. See Mesoscale Discussion 1396 for additional
details. These storms coincide with a 30-40 kt belt of northwesterly
mid-level flow that resides on the immediate periphery of a
gradually building upper-level ridge and associated elevated mixed
layer. Residual cloud cover, via overnight/pre-dawn decayed
convection, casts a bit of uncertainty regarding boundary layer
destabilization over portions of this region, especially with
northeastward extent. Nonetheless, increasing storm
coverage/intensity is expected this afternoon including
clusters/bowing segments and possibly a few supercells.
...Southeast...
Located to the south of an upper high centered over the Tennessee
Valley, a very moist air mass is present across much of the region.
Strong heating will yield moderate buoyancy by early afternoon.
Forecast soundings depict around 20-kt effective shear which will
aid in minor multicellular organization. Localized 50-60 mph gusts
capable of isolated wind damage will accompany the stronger storms.
Read more
SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0211 PM CDT Tue Jun 30 2026
Valid 021200Z - 031200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE NORTHERN PLAINS TO THE GREAT LAKES...
...SUMMARY...
Strong to severe storms will be possible from the northern Plains
into the Midwest and Great Lakes regions on Thursday. Isolated
strong to severe storms may also occur in the Tennessee
Valley/Southeast as well as parts of the Northeast.
...Northern High Plains to the Upper Midwest...
Upper ridging will build over the northern Plains on Thursday,
though temperatures aloft will remain fairly cool at around -12 to
-10 C at 500 mb. A broad belt of enhanced west/southwesterly
mid/upper-level flow will overspread the region, and a southerly
low-level jet is forecast to intensify across the central into
northern Plains overnight. At the surface, a quasi-stationary
boundary will arc from northern North Dakota into central MN/WI
during the afternoon. Meanwhile, a surface trough will extend
southward along the High Plains. South/southeasterly low-level flow
will maintain a very moist airmass across parts of the central
Plains into the Upper Midwest, while transporting low 60s dewpoints
northwest to near the ND/SD/MT/WY border. A broad swath of moderate
to strong instability will materialize across the warm sector
buffered by these two surface boundaries.
Convection may be ongoing where from the Mid-MO Valley to Upper
Midwest Thursday morning, though this is uncertain. Additional
storms are expected during the afternoon along the surface
boundaries across the northern High Plains southeastward into
MN/IA/WI. Forecast soundings suggest supercell will be possible,
with an accompanying all-hazards risk possible, at least initially.
With time, convection in the High Plains should grow upscale and
track southeast along the surface boundary and in the vicinity of
the terminus of the increasing low-level jet. This activity will
pose a risk of damaging wind swaths. Additional clustering/MCS
development is possible near the surface boundary across MN/WI and
perhaps into Lower MI during the evening/overnight.
...TN Valley Vicinity...
Another modest midlevel shortwave impulse will likely migrate
through easterly flow on the southern periphery of the upper ridge
over the eastern U.S. A very moist and strongly unstable airmass
will once again support a wet microburst risk, with some potential
for sufficient clustering to result in forward propagating
convection. Isolated to widely scattered damaging wind gusts are
expected.
...Northeast...
A weak cold front will approach the region Thursday night as a
surface low over Quebec lifts northeast. Ahead of this feature a
very moist, hot, and unstable airmass will be in place. Minor height
falls throughout the day and increasing westerly flow aloft will
support at least isolated thunderstorm development. Strong/locally
damaging gusts and hail will be possible with the strongest storms.
..Leitman.. 06/30/2026
Read more
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0212 PM CDT Tue Jun 30 2026
Valid 011200Z - 021200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR NORTHEAST ARIZONA...SOUTHEAST
UTAH...WESTERN COLORADO...AND NORTHWEST NEW MEXICO...
The Critical fire weather risk area was slightly expanded based on
recent guidance. Otherwise, the forecast remains on track. See the
previous discussion for more information.
..Elizalde-Garcia.. 06/30/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1259 AM CDT Tue Jun 30 2026/
...Synopsis...
Broad upper-level troughing will continue over the West with
multiple shortwave troughs rotating through the flow. While flow
weakens aloft, deep well-mixed boundary layers will develop as
stronger winds aloft will mix to the surface again bringing another
day of dry and windy conditions to the greater Four Corners region.
...Greater Four Corners Region...
Critical fire weather conditions are expected again across northeast
Arizona, southeast Utah, western Colorado, and northwest New Mexico.
South-southwest sustained winds of 15-20 mph amid minimum RH of
3-10% will develop by the afternoon and continue into the evening.
Some forecast guidance suggests that the Critical area may have more
locally critical conditions. However, swaths of HREF 50%+
probabilities of critical winds/RH along with nearly a week of
dry/windy conditions for this region, and the active large wildfires
across the region justify a Critical area. Additionally, the drier
and windier forecast guidance has been more accurate and reliable
for this region recently. Locally elevated fire weather conditions
are expected from the eastern slopes of the southern Sierra across
the southern Great Basin. South-southwest winds of 10-20 mph amid
minimum RH of 8-20% are likely across this area.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0451 PM CDT Tue Jun 30 2026
Valid 021200Z - 081200Z
...Synopsis...
Persistent troughing, enhanced flow aloft, and an established dry
airmass will maintain fire weather threats across the Great Basin
and Southwest through the work-week. Meanwhile, a strong ridge of
high pressure will continue to build across the central-eastern
CONUS through the forecast period, promoting widespread above normal
temperatures with mostly dry conditions. On Day 4/Friday, the
upper-level trough is forecast to weaken and transition much of the
U.S. into more zonal flow, while extended guidance depicts ridging
will build across northern Mexico and into the Southwest on Day
5/Saturday. This pattern will favor very dry and locally breezy
conditions across the western U.S., while chances of accumulating
precipitation may alleviate broader fire weather concerns across the
Southeast and Mid-Atlantic.
...Days 3-4/Thursday-Friday...
Enhanced southwesterly flow associated with persistent upper-level
troughing will sustain fire weather concerns across the Southwest,
Great Basin, and CO Rockies through the week with minimal to no
overnight humidity recoveries expected. As such, broad 40% Critical
probabilities have been maintained. Targeted 70% Critical
probabilities were introduced across far eastern UT into the
southern CO/northern NM mountains where terrain-induced gusty winds
and less than 15% RH will overlap extremely dry fuels. Isolated dry
thunderstorm potential on Day 1/Tuesday could result in lightning
holdovers across north-central NM and south-central CO, which may
emerge as a result of consecutive days of hot, dry, and breezy
conditions.
High pressure will build in from the eastern CONUS this weekend,
with ensemble guidance depicting the ridge to amplify and strengthen
across the central U.S. sometime next week. This may encourage
southerly flow aloft to commence, conceivably bringing our first
chances at monsoonal moisture across the Desert Southwest. Trends
will be monitored for dry thunderstorm potential as predictability
increases and guidance resolves the evolution of the overall
synoptic pattern. Nevertheless, until sufficient moisture arrives, a
critically dry, long-lasting airmass and hot daytime temperatures
will reinforce localized fire weather concerns throughout the
Intermountain West.
..Elizalde-Garcia.. 06/30/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
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