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  Tuesday June 27, 2017

RSS Mesoscale Discussions from Storm Prediction Center

SPC Severe Thunderstorm Watch 374

WW 374 SEVERE TSTM NE 280200Z - 280700Z
      
WW 0374 Image

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 374
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
900 PM CDT Tue Jun 27 2017

The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of 
  Central Nebraska

* Effective this Tuesday night and Wednesday morning from 900 PM
  until 200 AM CDT.

* Primary threats include...
  Scattered damaging winds likely with isolated significant gusts
    to 75 mph possible
  Scattered large hail likely with isolated very large hail events
    to 2.5 inches in diameter possible
  A tornado or two possible

SUMMARY...Thunderstorms will continue spreading eastward across the
watch area this evening, with locally damaging wind gusts and hail
in the stronger cells.  A few significant wind damage reports are
possible.

The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 65
statute miles east and west of a line from 40 miles northeast of
Oneill NE to 15 miles south southwest of Hastings NE. For a complete
depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update
(WOUS64 KWNS WOU4).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.

&&

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 372...WW 373...

AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
2.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 65 knots. A
few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector
26035.

...Hart

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SPC Severe Thunderstorm Watch 373

WW 373 SEVERE TSTM SD 280035Z - 280600Z
      
WW 0373 Image

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 373
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
735 PM CDT Tue Jun 27 2017

The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of 
  Central South Dakota

* Effective this Tuesday night and Wednesday morning from 735 PM
  until 100 AM CDT.

* Primary threats include...
  Scattered damaging winds likely with isolated significant gusts
    to 75 mph possible
  Scattered large hail likely with isolated very large hail events
    to 2.5 inches in diameter possible

SUMMARY...Scattered thunderstorms over southwest South Dakota will
track eastward and across the watch area this evening.  Damaging
wind gusts and large hail will be possible.

The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 55
statute miles east and west of a line from 35 miles north northeast
of Pierre SD to 50 miles south of Chamberlain SD. For a complete
depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update
(WOUS64 KWNS WOU3).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.

&&

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 372...

AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
2.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 65 knots. A
few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 450. Mean storm motion vector
26035.

...Hart

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SPC Severe Thunderstorm Watch 372

WW 372 SEVERE TSTM NE SD 272205Z - 280400Z
      
WW 0372 Image

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 372
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
505 PM CDT Tue Jun 27 2017

The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of 
  Central and Western Nebraska
  Southwest South Dakota

* Effective this Tuesday afternoon and evening from 505 PM until
  1100 PM CDT.

* Primary threats include...
  Scattered damaging winds likely with isolated significant gusts
    to 75 mph possible
  Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2.5
    inches in diameter possible

SUMMARY...Thunderstorms currently over eastern Wyoming and the
Nebraska Panhandle will track eastward across the watch this
evening.  Locally damaging wind gusts and large hail will be
possible.

The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 90
statute miles east and west of a line from 45 miles south of North
Platte NE to 95 miles north northeast of Chadron NE. For a complete
depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update
(WOUS64 KWNS WOU2).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.

&&

AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
2.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 65 knots. A
few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 450. Mean storm motion vector
27030.

...Hart

Read more

SPC Severe Thunderstorm Watch 374 Status Reports

WW 0374 Status Updates
      
WW 0374 Status Image

STATUS FOR WATCH 0374 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET
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SPC Severe Thunderstorm Watch 373 Status Reports

WW 0373 Status Updates
      
WW 0373 Status Image

STATUS FOR WATCH 0373 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET
Read more

SPC Severe Thunderstorm Watch 372 Status Reports

WW 0372 Status Updates
      
WW 0372 Status Image

STATUS REPORT ON WW 372

SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 WNW AIA
TO 40 NNE VTN TO 15 E PHP.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1166

..SMITH..06/28/17

ATTN...WFO...LBF...UNR...


STATUS REPORT FOR WS 372 

SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS 

NEC005-009-017-029-031-041-049-063-069-075-085-091-101-103-111-
113-115-117-135-149-161-171-280240-

NE 
.    NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

ARTHUR               BLAINE              BROWN               
CHASE                CHERRY              CUSTER              
DEUEL                FRONTIER            GARDEN              
GRANT                HAYES               HOOKER              
KEITH                KEYA PAHA           LINCOLN             
LOGAN                LOUP                MCPHERSON           
PERKINS              ROCK                SHERIDAN            
THOMAS               


SDC055-095-121-123-280240-

SD 
.    SOUTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

HAAKON               MELLETTE            TODD                
TRIPP                
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No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Wed Jun 28 02:46:17 UTC 2017.

SPC Jun 28, 2017 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
      
Day 1 Outlook Image
Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0754 PM CDT Tue Jun 27 2017

Valid 280100Z - 281200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
CENTRAL AND EASTERN NEBRASKA INTO FAR SOUTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA...

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OUTSIDE OF THE
ENHANCED RISK ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS...

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OUTSIDE OF THE
SLIGHT RISK AREA ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTH-CENTRAL STATES...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms capable of large hail and damaging winds are
expected over much of Nebraska and South Dakota this evening, with
the potential for hailstones greater than 2 inches in diameter and
damaging wind gusts in excess of 65 knots.

...Central and Northern Plains/Mid Missouri Valley...
The latest water vapor imagery shows a shortwave ridge over eastern
parts of the Dakotas extending southward into the mid Missouri
Valley with a shortwave trough in the northern Rockies. At the
surface a cold front is moving eastward across the western Dakotas
and far western Nebraska. Ahead of the front, a corridor of
maximized low-level moisture is located across the central and
northern Plains. The RAP is analyzing moderate to strong instability
along this corridor with MLCAPE in the 2000 to 4000 J/kg range.
Thunderstorms are ongoing along the western edge of the stronger
instability in southwestern South Dakota and west-central Nebraska.
This activity should continue to grow upscale, moving eastward into
higher quality moisture and stronger instability. As the shortwave
trough moves into the region from the west and low-level flow
strengthens across the Plains, MCS development will be possible. 

In addition to moderate instability, the WSR-88D VWP at North
Platte, NE shows a supercell wind profile with strong directional
shear in the lowest 2 km AGL and 30 to 35 kt of westerly flow in the
mid-levels. The 00Z sounding from North Platte also shows a very
steep mid-level lapse rate exceeding 8.0 C/km. This environment
should support supercells with large hail and the more dominant
storms may be capable of producing hailstones greater than 2 inches
in diameter. Supercells will be most likely over the next 2 to 3
hours but a transition to linear mode is expected to take place
during the mid to late evening. This should result in an increasing
wind damage threat especially if a linear MCS can organize across
the region. Due to the strong instabililty and steep low-level lapse
rates, any persistent bowing line of storms may be able to produce
damaging wind gusts exceeding 65 knots. The severe threat should
eventually reach the mid Missouri Valley by during the late evening
and overnight period. See MCD 1165 for more information on the South
Dakota part of the Enhanced risk area.

Isolated severe storms will be possible further to the south across
western Kansas and the Oklahoma Panhandle where a narrow corridor of
moderate instability is analyzed by the RAP. Farther west and north
across parts of the northern High Plains and North Dakota,
convective coverage should remain more isolated but a marginal
severe threat will be possible due to an adequate combination of
instability and deep-layer shear.

..Broyles.. 06/28/2017

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