RSS Mesoscale Discussions from Storm Prediction Center
No watches are valid as of Mon Jan 26 20:59:02 UTC 2026.
No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Mon Jan 26 20:59:02 UTC 2026.
SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0138 PM CST Mon Jan 26 2026
Valid 262000Z - 271200Z
...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
No thunderstorms are expected.
...Discussion...
Occasional lightning occurred earlier today near the Florida coast
with a weak line of storms that developed along the cold front. This
convective line has weakened/moved far enough offshore to bring an
end to any thunder potential across Florida. A dry,
continental-polar airmass, which has now become established across
much of the CONUS, will continue to limit any thunderstorm
potential.
..Bentley.. 01/26/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0950 AM CST Mon Jan 26 2026/
...Discussion including South Florida...
Longwave trough will remain prevalent east of the Rockies, with some
late-day amplification of the upper ridge into the West in advance
of an approaching shortwave trough. High pressure and
cold/continental trajectories will extensively prevail east of the
Rockies, with an exception being ahead of a cold front crossing the
Florida Peninsula. While near-frontal convergence will remain weak,
and mid-level lapse rates are poor, additional boundary layer
warming and deepening convection may be conducive for a few
lightning flashes, mainly near parts of the coastal southeast
Florida Peninsula through afternoon.
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SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1036 AM CST Mon Jan 26 2026
Valid 271200Z - 281200Z
...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are unlikely Tuesday.
...Synopsis...
An upper shortwave trough will move from the Rockies into the
central/southern Plains on Tuesday, bringing with it a reinforcing
shot of cold air to the middle part of the CONUS. At the surface,
high pressure will persist, resulting in continental trajectories
and maintaining a cold, dry, and stable airmass. As a result,
thunderstorms are not expected across the CONUS on Tuesday.
..Leitman.. 01/26/2026
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SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1240 PM CST Mon Jan 26 2026
Valid 281200Z - 291200Z
...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are not expected Wednesday.
...Synopsis...
Surface high pressure will persist beneath broad upper
troughing/northwest flow across the eastern two-thirds of the CONUS
on Wednesday. This will maintain the modified arctic airmass across
much of the country. With a large area of snow and ice cover, cold,
dry and stable conditions will preclude thunderstorm activity.
..Leitman.. 01/26/2026
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SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1045 AM CST Mon Jan 26 2026
Valid 261700Z - 271200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
...Central High Plains...
A subtle, mid-level short wave embedded in broad northwesterly flow
approaching the Southern Rockies along with surface lee trough
development across eastern CO is expected today. This will support
downslope drying and promote a considerable rise in temperatures
across the central High Plains through this afternoon as a rapid
erosion of a shallow inversion layer continues. West winds of 15-25
mph are expected across southeastern WY and more localized portions
of the CO Front Range and Sangre De Cristo Mountains. Despite RH
approaching 15 percent this afternoon in some areas, expansive snow
cover across the region will mitigate the otherwise elevated fire
weather concerns.
Please see previous forecast discussion for additional details.
..Williams.. 01/26/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0137 AM CST Mon Jan 26 2026/
...Synopsis...
Fire weather concerns will be very low today across the CONUS.
Recent widespread winter precipitation and rainfall have improved
fuels across much of the central/southern Plains with fresh snow
pack extending into the Mississippi and Missouri Valleys. In
addition, an arctic air mass remains in place across much of the
CONUS. Overall, the cold and wet conditions will negate fire spread
potential across much of the US.
Dry conditions will be possible across the Florida Panhandle as dry
northwesterly flow increases behind the passing cold front. Relative
humidity reductions around 30-35% may briefly overlap winds 10-15
mph. Cooler temperatures behind the front and some light preceding
rainfall should limit broader fire weather concerns.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
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SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0122 PM CST Mon Jan 26 2026
Valid 271200Z - 281200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
Showers along a cold front will continue to progress southeastward
through tonight across southern FL. Post-frontal north winds of
10-15 mph and dry conditions with relative humidity falling into the
20-30 percent range should support an elevated fire weather for the
Southwest FL Coast Tuesday afternoon. Modified elevated highlights
to capture mitigating effects of recent rainfall, primarily south of
the Tampa Bay area.
..Williams.. 01/26/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0139 AM CST Mon Jan 26 2026/
...Synopsis...
Dry post-frontal northwesterly flow across the western Florida
peninsula will bring a period of Elevated fire weather concerns on
D2/Tuesday. Relative humidity reductions to 20-30% will overlap
sustained winds 10-15 mph. There is a chance for some precipitation
across the region on D1/Monday, however, this is expected to remain
light. An Elevated area was maintained across portions of the
western Florida peninsula where the best chances of windy/dry
conditions overlap most receptive fuels and lowest precipitation
potential.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
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SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0253 PM CST Mon Jan 26 2026
Valid 281200Z - 031200Z
...Synopsis...
Longer term ensemble cluster analysis depicts ongoing broad scale
mid-level troughing east of the Continental Divide through at least
through the weekend, with potentially a more progressive wave
pattern emerging by Day 7 or 8 (Sunday-Monday). Colder temperatures,
antecedent moisture and lingering snow cover should largely mitigate
fire weather concerns east of the High Plains. The persistent
northwest flow aloft could bring occasional downslope warming and
drying events to the central and southern High Plains, but stronger
winds should be localized and limited to adjacent lee slopes of the
southern/central Rockies. Ridging across the West will promote dry
and seasonably warm conditions across much of the Southwest through
early next week.
...Florida...
Surface high pressure settling into the Southern Plains and lower MS
River Valley should keep deeper boundary layer moisture shunted
offshore across the Southeast and Florida. Persistent northerly to
northwesterly flow across FL will likely lead to critically low
relative humidity each day through Friday, but subdued lower-level
wind profiles and diffuse surface pressure gradients should limit
breezier winds from developing. Extended model guidance suggests a
stronger surface cyclone developing near FL by Day 6/Saturday,
traversing the East Coast into early next week. Stronger north winds
behind a cold front trailing the low is expected Saturday, but
preceding rainfall should mitigate fire weather concerns prior to
this potentially stronger offshore wind event.
..Williams.. 01/26/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
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