RSS Mesoscale Discussions from Storm Prediction Center
WW 141 TORNADO AR OK TX 241855Z - 250200Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Tornado Watch Number 141
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
155 PM CDT Fri Apr 24 2026
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Tornado Watch for portions of
Southwest Arkansas
Southern and Eastern Oklahoma
North and Northeast Texas
* Effective this Friday afternoon and evening from 155 PM until
900 PM CDT.
* Primary threats include...
A few tornadoes and a couple intense tornadoes possible
Widespread large hail and isolated very large hail events to 3.5
inches in diameter likely
Scattered damaging winds and isolated significant gusts to 80
mph possible
SUMMARY...Intense storm development including supercells is
anticipated through mid/late afternoon across the region, especially
in vicinity of a front and modifying outflow boundary, and perhaps
near/just of a dryline across north Texas. Very large hail is
possible, along with a tornado risk, with damaging winds also
expected to increase by early evening in anticipation of storms
clustering/organizing as they move southeastward toward and across
the ArkLaTex.
The tornado watch area is approximately along and 65 statute miles
north and south of a line from 50 miles south of Chickasha OK to 25
miles north northeast of Texarkana AR. For a complete depiction of
the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS
WOU1).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for
tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch
area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for
threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements
and possible warnings.
&&
AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail
surface and aloft to 3.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind
gusts to 70 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 550. Mean
storm motion vector 29025.
...Guyer
Read more
WW 0141 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 141
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..JEWELL..04/24/26
ATTN...WFO...SHV...LZK...OUN...TSA...FWD...
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 141
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ARC057-061-073-081-091-113-133-242240-
AR
. ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
HEMPSTEAD HOWARD LAFAYETTE
LITTLE RIVER MILLER POLK
SEVIER
OKC005-013-019-023-029-033-049-063-067-069-077-079-085-089-095-
099-121-123-127-137-242240-
OK
. OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ATOKA BRYAN CARTER
CHOCTAW COAL COTTON
GARVIN HUGHES JEFFERSON
JOHNSTON LATIMER LE FLORE
LOVE MCCURTAIN MARSHALL
MURRAY PITTSBURG PONTOTOC
PUSHMATAHA STEPHENS
TXC037-063-067-085-097-119-147-159-181-223-231-277-343-379-387-
Read more
MD 0520 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 141... FOR SOUTH-CENTRAL OKLAHOMA
Mesoscale Discussion 0520
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0340 PM CDT Fri Apr 24 2026
Areas affected...South-central Oklahoma
Concerning...Tornado Watch 141...
Valid 242040Z - 242215Z
The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 141 continues.
SUMMARY...The greatest threat for very-large hail and tornadoes will
be in south-central Oklahoma over the next 1-2 hours.
DISCUSSION...A trio of supercells is moving southeastward into
south-central Oklahoma. Their motion should generally keep them
along and south of the surface boundary. The 19Z observed OUN
sounding showed mid-level lapse rates of 7.4 C/km and 52 kts of
effective shear. Very-large hail will be the primary concern with
these cells as the progress. 2+ inch hail has already been reported
in Seminole County earlier. A tornado threat will also exist given
the back surface winds and upper 60s F dewpoints.
..Wendt.. 04/24/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...TSA...OUN...
LAT...LON 34609730 34779745 35109655 34679552 34449538 34089576
34069644 34279709 34609730
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-125 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...2.00-3.50 IN
Read more
SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0256 PM CDT Fri Apr 24 2026
Valid 242000Z - 251200Z
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR SOUTHEAST
OKLAHOMA INTO THE ARKLATEX...
...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected today from parts of the
southern Plains into the ArkLaTex and lower Mississippi Valley.
Large hail, damaging winds, and a few tornadoes will be possible.
The greatest threat for supercells with very large hail (2+ inches)
should focus across parts of southeast Oklahoma to the ArkLaTex
region.
...20Z Update...
Much of the previous forecast (see below) remains on track. The
primary changes made to the current outlook were to trim severe
probabilities across portions of the OH Valley/Great Lakes, and the
Mid-MS Valley, where either the passage of a surface cold front, or
robust convection, has promoted boundary layer stabilization. More
minor changes involved small adjustments to current severe and
thunder probabilities ahead of storms to account for observations
and the latest guidance consensus.
..Squitieri.. 04/24/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1130 AM CDT Fri Apr 24 2026/
...Oklahoma/North Texas to ArkLaTex/Lower Mississippi Valley...
A persistent band of non-severe thunderstorms this morning, and its
related outflow, continue to settle southward across southeast
Oklahoma, south-central/southeast Arkansas into northwest
Mississippi. The southeastern-most portion of the convective line
may re-intensify across the ArkLaMiss today as the boundary layer
warms, with some potential for a secondary round of upscale-growing
storms into tonight across generally the same ArkLaMiss/Lower
Mississippi Valley region. This includes damaging winds and some
tornado potential, primarily QLCS-related, especially into this
evening/tonight via a somewhat stronger wind field.
The western periphery of the ongoing complex and its outflow should
continue to decelerate, stall, and modify through the afternoon,
setting the stage for a semi-corridor of heightened severe potential
via this modifying outflow in conjunction with the surface triple
point to this west, with intensifying storm development anticipated
toward the 4pm-6pm/21z-23z time frame across southeast Oklahoma and
nearby ArkLaTex. This will be in the presence of ample buoyancy and
steep mid-level lapse rates. Wind profiles will further support
intense supercells capable of large to very large hail, along with a
tornado risk, accentuated by backed low-level winds near the outflow
boundary and east of the triple point. With time, some clustering
may occur with an increased damaging wind threat as convection
spreads east-southeastward.
Additionally, locally intense storms may also focus farther west
across southern Oklahoma/Red River vicinity along/north of the
southward-sagging front where relatively rich low-level moisture
will persist in the presence of strong deep-layer shear.
...Texas Dryline - North/Central TX to Hill Country/Rio Grande...
A highly conditional scenario exists in vicinity of the
south/southwestward-extending dryline late this afternoon/early
evening, with a concerning (mostly hail) severe potential should
storms develop. Short-term guidance varies on the aggressiveness of
eastward-mixing/dryline through peak heating, although the 12z Fort
Worth sounding sampled respectable warm-sector moisture content this
morning (upper quartile climo; 14.4 g/kg mean mixing ratio).
Regardless, a concerning high degree of instability (3000+ J/kg
MLCAPE) will exist near/east of the dryline late this afternoon.
Short-term models remain rather sparse on explicit indications of
near-dryline convective initiation. However, sufficient dry line
convergence and post-dryline heating/mixing could plausibly lead to
isolated but intense thunderstorm development in the presence of
negligible capping/boundary-layer inhibition. And while mid-level
capping will be more prevalent, especially with southward extent,
upstream 12z soundings from Midland/El Paso (both around -14C 500mb)
suggest that some additional mid-level cooling is probable. Notably
stronger mid/high-level winds were also observed in these RAOBs with
50+ kt winds and 100+ kt winds at 500mb/250mb, respectively.
Several sub-regional zones of potential isolated deep convective
development are at least plausible, including in closer proximity to
the surface triple point across North Texas/Metroplex general
vicinity, extending into parts of central Texas where low-level
mixing may be less impactful, and lastly in the immediate vicinity
of the Rio Grande, potentially influenced by possible storm
development across the border. If/where storms do develop late this
afternoon/early evening, very large hail could occur along with
localized severe-caliber wind gusts.
...Great Lakes/Ohio Valley...
A weak/convectively influenced mid-level shortwave trough will move
northeastward across the Midwest and Upper Great Lakes today.
Convection ahead of a cold front has generally weakened this morning
across the mid Mississippi Valley, but multi-layer cloud cover
remains prevalent. Modest-caliber low-level moisture will continue
to advect north-northeastward through the day ahead of the front,
supporting weak instability with filtered daytime heating. Loosely
organized clusters/cells that develop/intensify this afternoon may
pose an isolated threat for damaging winds as they move
northeastward this afternoon and evening. The residual clouds and a
weakening low-level wind field should curb the overall magnitude of
the severe risk, hence maintenance of MRGL/Category 1 risk.
...Western Nebraska...
A couple of stronger storms may develop late this afternoon/early
evening near a southeastward-moving front, further influenced by a
mid-level impulse embedded within the base of the large-scale trough
centered over the Canadian Prairies. In the presence of a strong
deep-layer wind field, modest-caliber CAPE atop a well-mixed
boundary layer could potentially yield an isolated severe gust/hail.
Read more
SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1230 PM CDT Fri Apr 24 2026
Valid 251200Z - 261200Z
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM
NORTH-CENTRAL INTO EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND ADJACENT PARTS OF SOUTHEAST
KANSAS AND WESTERN ARKANSAS...
...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms, with a risk for large to very large hail,
damaging wind gusts, and a few tornadoes, are possible across parts
of the southeastern Great Plains into the ArkLaTex, primarily
Saturday afternoon and evening.
...Synopsis...
A deep mid/upper-level low is forecast to remain nearly stationary
over the Canadian Prairie region on Saturday. This low will continue
to anchor a large-scale mid/upper trough covering much of the
western and central CONUS through the period. A shortwave trough
initially off of the southern CA coast will move east-northeastward
toward the Southwest by Sunday morning. Downstream of this system, a
low-amplitude midlevel shortwave trough may emerge from the southern
Rockies and begin to impinge upon a moist and unstable environment
across the south-central Plains by afternoon.
At the surface, a surface low is forecast to gradually deepen across
the TX Panhandle region through the day, with a dryline extending
southward from this low into parts of west-central and southwest TX.
An outflow-influenced surface boundary will initially extend
east-southeast of the low into parts of the Southeast. This boundary
is forecast to move northward as a warm front through the day across
parts of OK/north TX into the ArkLaTex region.
...Southern/central Plains into the ArkLaTex...
Relatively steep lapse rates atop a richly moist boundary layer will
result in moderate to strong destabilization along/east of the
dryline and near/south of the effective warm front. Details of
diurnal storm development and coverage remain unclear, but at least
isolated storm development will be possible near or just to the cool
side of the effective warm front by late afternoon, as the
approaching low-amplitude midlevel shortwave trough glances the
stronger instability. Initial storms across eastern KS/OK may be
somewhat elevated, but surface-based convection may eventually
develop near the warm front/dryline intersection and expand in
coverage into the evening.
Initial supercell development will pose a threat of large to very
large hail and localized damaging gusts. Low-level flow/shear will
generally remain modest, but large instability and enhanced SRH near
the surface boundary could result in a localized region of greater
tornado potential. With time, some upscale growth may result in an
organized storm cluster moving southeastward to the ArkLaTex and
potentially the lower MS Valley along the primary instability
gradient. This evolution could be accompanied by increasing
damaging-wind potential, though embedded supercells may continue to
pose a localized hail and tornado threat well into the evening.
Development along the dryline across TX continues to be uncertain,
since this area will be removed from stronger large-scale ascent.
However, strong heating and removal of CINH could result in isolated
supercell development, with an attendant threat of large to very
large hail, and a nonzero tornado and wind risk.
Farther north, a separate area of storm development is possible from
central/northern KS into southeast NE. While instability and
deep-layer flow/shear will generally be weaker with northward
extent, cool temperatures aloft and modest midlevel flow could
support a threat for isolated hail and strong/damaging gusts with
the strongest storms during the afternoon and early evening.
...Parts of the Southeast into the Carolinas/Virginia...
A broad area of weak to moderate instability may develop during the
afternoon from parts of the Southeast into the Carolinas/Virginia,
near and to the warm side of a weak surface front. Wind profiles
will be relatively modest, but may support marginally organized
storms. Guidance continues to vary regarding placement of the
primary surface boundary and potential for any MCV development from
late D1/Friday. Low severe probabilities may eventually need to
expanded across parts of the Southeast, once details become better
resolved.
..Dean.. 04/24/2026
Read more
SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0230 PM CDT Fri Apr 24 2026
Valid 261200Z - 271200Z
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF
KANSAS INTO ADJACENT PORTIONS OF NORTHERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN
MISSOURI...
...SUMMARY...
Widely scattered severe storms with potential to produce large hail
and a couple of strong tornadoes are possible by early Sunday
evening across parts of the central and southern Great Plains,
before one or two organizing clusters of storms spread toward the
middle/lower Missouri Valley with potentially damaging wind gusts.
...Synopsis...
A mid/upper-level shortwave and attendant jet maximum are forecast
to emerge from the large-scale trough across the West, and begin to
impinge upon a moist and potentially very unstable airmass across
parts of the Great Plains on Sunday. A surface low is expected to
consolidate and deepen across the south-central High Plains during
the day, and then move toward the lower MO Valley by Monday morning.
A surface front (whose initial position will be influenced by
extensive Friday/Saturday convection) will move northward as a warm
front across parts of the central Plains and Ozarks. A Pacific
Front/dryline will extend southward from the surface low through
late afternoon, with the northern portion of this boundary expected
to push eastward across parts of KS/OK Sunday night.
...Great Plains...
A volatile environment is still expected to develop across parts of
KS/OK/TX Sunday afternoon and evening, with moderate to strong
buoyancy and increasing low-level and deep-layer shear. However, the
signal for diurnal warm-sector development remains rather muted in
most guidance, with the strongest large-scale ascent and midlevel
height falls expected to be displaced north of the stronger
instability.
Storm coverage through early evening may be maximized across parts
of the central High Plains, in closer proximity to the ejecting
shortwave trough. While low-level moisture will remain relatively
modest in this area, backed low-level flow, steep midlevel lapse
rates, and moderate buoyancy could support initial supercell
development, with an attendant threat of all severe hazards. Storms
in this area may consolidate into an MCS, resulting in an organized
severe threat spreading toward the lower/mid MO Valley later Sunday
night.
Farther south, development along the dryline into parts of southern
KS, OK, and TX remains more uncertain. If isolated supercells can
develop and be sustained within this regime, they would be
accompanied by a threat for tornadoes (possibly strong), very large
hail, and localized severe gusts.
A separate area of nocturnal storm development will be possible
within a warm-advection regime from eastern KS into the Ozark
region. Buoyancy and shear may be sufficient to support some severe
threat with the strongest storms within this regime.
...Lower MS Valley...
Nocturnal storms from D2/Saturday may persist into Sunday morning
across the lower MS Valley, with additional diurnal development
possible along the remnant surface boundary. Moderate buoyancy could
support a localized severe threat across the region, within a modest
northwesterly flow regime.
..Dean.. 04/24/2026
Read more
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0208 PM CDT Fri Apr 24 2026
Valid 251200Z - 261200Z
...Southern Plains into portions of the Southwest...
A subtle mid-level short wave embedded within westerly zonal flow
will move into the Southern Plains. An attendant but modest wind
maxima aloft in addition to a deepening lee surface low across
northwestern TX will maintain dry and breezy conditions for portions
of the Southwest and Southern Plains Saturday. Elevated fire weather
conditions including west to southwest winds of up to 20 mph and
relative humidity in the 10-15% range are still expected. The
elevated fire weather threat was nudged northward into south central
CO based on latest model guidance and overall persistent westerly
flow aloft. Localized downslope enhanced winds of around 20 mph,
relative humidity near 15% and dry fuels will increase fire spread
potential.
Farther west, an influx of subtropical Pacific moisture ahead of a
more pronounced trough impinging upon the CA Coast will promote
increasing cloud cover over the broader CO River Basin Saturday.
Some precipitation is likely to develop late Saturday afternoon and
evening, temporarily mitigating fire weather concerns amid an
otherwise breezy day across the region.
..Williams.. 04/24/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1257 AM CDT Fri Apr 24 2026/
...Synopsis...
A broad, large-scale upper level trough will be anchored near the
international border over the central US through the weekend. To the
east, the prevailing upper-level ridge will collapse on Day
2/Saturday as an approaching mid-level shortwave trough triggers
widespread precipitation over the Midwest and Appalachians. This
change is expected to provide some relief to the critically dry
fuels over these regions. However, for areas bypassed by appreciable
rainfall (especially east of the southern Appalachians), the fire
risk posed by lingering drought conditions will persist.
...Southern Plains into portions of the Southwest...
Zonal flow aloft will remain in place across the Southwest on
Saturday, sustaining very breezy and dry conditions. Following
several consecutive days of heightened fire weather, the fuel
environment remains highly stressed, especially over northern
extents of the drawn area. Westerly downslope winds of 15-20 mph
will coincide with relative humidity values of 10-20% over receptive
fuels, further aggravating the fire risk. Consequently, an Elevated
area exists for Day 2/Saturday across much of New Mexico, southeast
Arizona, and portions of west Texas where fuels are receptive. While
the dryline is expected to surge farther east across
southwest/central Texas, fuel conditions near and south/east of
Midland appear to be less receptive overall. However, this event
will work to dry fuels over this region and may promote future risk
across this area.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0424 PM CDT Fri Apr 24 2026
Valid 261200Z - 021200Z
...Synopsis...
An upper-level short wave trough enters the Southwest on Day
3/Sunday while an attendant jet max pushing into the southern High
Plains, bringing an enhanced fire weather threat to the region where
fuels remain receptive. Lingering strong southwesterly flow aloft
and a departing surface low across the Midwest, will continue to
bring dry and breezy conditions to portions of the southern High
Plains on Day 4/Monday. The broader troughing pattern across the
western U.S. should bring some relief to much of the Intermountain
West in the form of cooler temperatures and precipitation. Mid/upper
troughing shifts into the eastern U.S. by mid to late week, bringing
much needed additional rainfall to much of the Appalachians,
Mid-Atlantic and Southeast, although some pockets of lingering dry
fuels could exist by the end of next week.
...Day 3-5/Sunday-Tuesday - Southwest and Southern Plains...
A strong mid-level jet and parent trough entering the Southwest and
incipient surface cyclogenesis over the central High Plains will
bring an expansive wind event to portions of the Southwest and
Southern Plains on Day 3/Sunday. Enhanced downslope drying with west
winds of 15-25 mph behind a demarcating dry line will likely bring a
critical fire weather threat to much of southern and eastern NM, TX
Panhandle and West TX where some modifications to the 40% and 70%
critical probabilities were made. Latest forecast guidance does
suggest the potential for a corridor of Extremely Critical fire
weather conditions, including southwest winds of 30-35 mph over
receptive fuels, emerging across portions of southern and eastern NM
by Sunday afternoon.
Lingering fire weather concerns should be concentrated across the
Southwest and Southern Plains through Day 5/Tuesday as persistent
westerly flow aloft and dry conditions persist, as upper-level
troughing begins to shift into the central U.S. 40% critical
probabilities were introduced for both Day 4/Monday and Day
5/Tuesday for portions of NM and West TX to account for dry, fire
effective westerly winds encompassing portions of the Southern
Plains. Longer term model guidance indicates a lower latitude
mid-level wave moving into the Southwest and northern Mexico by the
Day 7-8/Thursday-Friday time frame. A corresponding surface low
across southern TX could bring much of eastern NM and the Southern
Plains much needed rainfall owing to more favorable Gulf moisture
return trajectories.
..Williams.. 04/24/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
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