SPC - No watches are valid as of Sun Jan 25 01:48:02 UTC 2026

No watches are valid as of Sun Jan 25 01:48:02 UTC 2026.

SPC MD 49

MD 0049 CONCERNING WINTER MIXED PRECIPITATION FOR NORTHERN LOUISIANA INTO EASTERN ARKANSAS...NORTHWEST MISSISSIPPI...AND FAR WESTERN TENNESSEE

Mesoscale Discussion 0049
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0746 PM CST Sat Jan 24 2026

Areas affected...Northern Louisiana into eastern
Arkansas...northwest Mississippi...and far western Tennessee

Concerning...Winter mixed precipitation 

Valid 250146Z - 250645Z

SUMMARY...Another round of freezing rain and sleet is expected to
spread out of northern Louisiana into eastern Arkansas and northwest
Mississippi. Freezing rain rates upwards of 0.05 inch/hour appear
likely for some locations.

DISCUSSION...Recent radar mosaics show a developing plume of
precipitation across central to northern LA - likely associated with
strengthening warm advection between 925-850 mb. Over the next
several hours, an uptick in low-level winds should promote further
augmentation of isentropic and frontogenetical ascent across the
lower MS River Valley. Regional 00z RAOBs from SHV and LZK sampled a
stout (4-12 C) warm layer between 850-700 mb that will melt
hydrometeors as precipitation spreads north/northeast. Sub-freezing
surface temperatures will promote some degree of re-freezing near
the surface, though locations with temperatures at or near/below 15
F will likely be sufficiently cold (and have a sufficiently deep
sub-freezing layer) to promote sleet as the predominant
precipitation type. Warmer locations will likely observe freezing
rain (with freezing rain rates up to 0.05 inch/hour) with periods of
sleet possible. Based on latest surface observations, freezing rain
appears most probable across southeast AR into northwest MS with
sleet more likely for locations further north into east-central AR
and far western TN.

..Moore.. 01/25/2026

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MEG...JAN...LZK...SHV...

LAT...LON   32499131 32369169 32359227 32459267 32909332 33239345
            33509334 36089071 36279027 36238969 35928916 35648881
            35388867 35128863 34838881 32499131 

SPC MD 48

MD 0048 CONCERNING WINTER MIXED PRECIPITATION FOR NORTH-CENTRAL TEXAS...SOUTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA...WESTERN ARKANSAS

Mesoscale Discussion 0048
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0709 PM CST Sat Jan 24 2026

Areas affected...north-central Texas...southeastern
Oklahoma...western Arkansas

Concerning...Winter mixed precipitation 

Valid 250109Z - 250515Z

SUMMARY...Mix of freezing rain and sleet to continue through the
evening.

DISCUSSION...Surface observations have reported periods of sleet and
freezing rain across north-central Texas into southeastern Oklahoma
and into western Arkansas. Freezing rain accumulations have
generally been around 0.01"/hr or less. Sleet accumulations near the
Dallas Metro around 0.10-0.50"/hr. 00z soundings from FWD and LZK
show a warm nose across between 850-700 mb atop sub-freezing surface
temperatures.

As upper-level forcing for ascent increases with the ejecting low, a
mix of freezing rain and sleet can be expected to continue across
this region through the next several hours. The primary
precipitation type is expected to be sleet, with areas of freezing
rain/mist. Freezing rain amounts should be generally less than
0.01"/hr with sleet accumulations around 0.10-0.50"/hr.

..Thornton.. 01/25/2026

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...TSA...FWD...OUN...

LAT...LON   33729769 34289693 35319539 36019403 36089303 35909255
            34709306 33529499 32809604 32699632 32869724 33159755
            33729769 

SPC MD 47

MD 0047 CONCERNING WINTER MIXED PRECIPITATION FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS

Mesoscale Discussion 0047
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0545 PM CST Sat Jan 24 2026

Areas affected...Portions of the southern Appalachians

Concerning...Winter mixed precipitation 

Valid 242345Z - 250445Z

SUMMARY...A wintry mix of sleet and freezing rain is expected to
slowly spread north and east over the next 3-5 hours across portions
of the southern Appalachians. Areas currently observing snow will
likely see a transition to sleet/freezing rain during this period.
Freezing rain rates of 0.05 to 0.1 inch/hour appear possible.

DISCUSSION...Recent RAP/HRRR solutions appear to be capturing
ongoing precipitation-type trends well per latest ASOS/AWOS
observations and mPING reports. Surface observations also depict a
trough axis extending from southwest AL into the southern
Appalachians where surface pressure falls on the order of
approximately 1 mb/hour have been noted since 18 UTC. As broad-scale
ascent continues to increase with the gradual approach of the upper
wave to the west, further intensification of the surface trough
across the Southeast and lee of the southern Appalachians is
expected with a slight augmentation of southerly low-level winds and
warm air advection. This will shift the low-level freezing line
northward over the next several hours, resulting in a transition
from predominantly snow to a mixture of freezing rain and sleet (and
potentially to rain if surface temperatures can sufficiently warm).
Additionally, as low-level ascent spreads east/northeast, freezing
rain/sleet should become more widespread across portions of the
western Carolinas and into parts of VA - especially as low-level
saturation is achieved later this evening. Latest forecast guidance
continues to suggest that freezing rain rates upwards of 0.05 to 0.1
inch/hour will be possible.

..Moore.. 01/24/2026

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...RAH...RNK...RLX...CAE...GSP...MRX...JKL...LMK...
OHX...

LAT...LON   35968364 35848447 35848534 36048575 36278604 36598610
            36788603 37178545 37808395 37998272 37958136 37858062
            37467986 37017942 36367926 36017933 35767940 35337952
            35067980 34888025 34878078 34998133 35288162 35578206
            35858246 35988299 35968364 

SPC Jan 25, 2026 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
      
Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0649 PM CST Sat Jan 24 2026

Valid 250100Z - 251200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected tonight.

...01z Update...

Southern-stream upper low is beginning to eject across northern
Mexico. Latest water-vapor imagery depicts this feature well and
scattered thunderstorms have developed ahead of the primary midlevel
vort just south of the international border. Isolated thunderstorms
are noted north of the border across southeast AZ, but this activity
should gradually weaken over the next few hours. However, stronger
forcing is expected to aid elevated convection that will spread
across portions of far West TX this evening and thunderstorm
probabilities will reflect this risk through at least 06z tonight.
Downstream, warm advection will continue to be the primary mechanism
for more sporadic thunderstorms atop the cooler polar air mass.
Additionally, boundary layer destabilization will be retarded across
the lower MS Valley through 12z, and for this reason robust
thunderstorms are not forecast.

..Darrow.. 01/25/2026


Read more