RSS Mesoscale Discussions from Storm Prediction Center
WW 270 SEVERE TSTM ND 022000Z - 030300Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 270
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
300 PM CDT Tue Jun 2 2026
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of
North Dakota
* Effective this Tuesday afternoon and evening from 300 PM until
1000 PM CDT.
* Primary threats include...
Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2
inches in diameter possible
Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible
A tornado or two possible
SUMMARY...Thunderstorms are expected to continue through this
afternoon and evening along and ahead of a cold front moving into
central North Dakota. Moderate to strong buoyancy and moderate
vertical shear will support the potential for supercells, with large
to isolated very large hail as the primary hazards. There is a
low-probability tornado risk, mitigated by the expectation that
cells will trend towards a more clustered mode rather quickly.
Damaging gusts are also possible later in the convective cycle as
bowing line segments become more common.
The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 90
statute miles east and west of a line from 70 miles north northwest
of Devils Lake ND to 55 miles south of Bismarck ND. For a complete
depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update
(WOUS64 KWNS WOU0).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.
&&
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 269...
AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A
few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector
24030.
...Mosier
Read more
WW 269 SEVERE TSTM NE SD WY 021940Z - 030300Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 269
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
140 PM MDT Tue Jun 2 2026
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of
Northwest Nebraska
Western and Central South Dakota
Eastern Wyoming
* Effective this Tuesday afternoon and evening from 140 PM until
900 PM MDT.
* Primary threats include...
Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2
inches in diameter possible
Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible
A tornado or two possible
SUMMARY...Thunderstorm coverage is expected to increase over the
next few hours from eastern Wyoming into northwest Nebraska and
western/central South Dakota. Primary threat initially will be large
hail, with the threat transitioning to strong to severe gusts as
storms move from a more clustered cellular mode to a more linear,
bowing segment mode. A few gusts over 70 mph are possible. There is
also a low-probability tornado risk if a storm can mature while
remaining discrete and cellular.
The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 80
statute miles east and west of a line from 5 miles northeast of
Lemmon SD to 35 miles southeast of Scottsbluff NE. For a complete
depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update
(WOUS64 KWNS WOU9).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.
&&
AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A
few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector
24025.
...Mosier
Read more
WW 0270 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 270
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0962
..MOORE..06/02/26
ATTN...WFO...BIS...FGF...
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 270
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
NDC001-003-005-009-015-019-027-029-031-037-039-041-043-047-049-
051-055-057-059-063-065-067-069-071-075-079-083-085-093-095-099-
101-103-030040-
ND
. NORTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ADAMS BARNES BENSON
BOTTINEAU BURLEIGH CAVALIER
EDDY EMMONS FOSTER
GRANT GRIGGS HETTINGER
KIDDER LOGAN MCHENRY
MCINTOSH MCLEAN MERCER
MORTON NELSON OLIVER
PEMBINA PIERCE RAMSEY
RENVILLE ROLETTE SHERIDAN
SIOUX STUTSMAN TOWNER
WALSH WARD WELLS
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
Read more
WW 0269 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 269
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0961
..MOORE..06/02/26
ATTN...WFO...CYS...LBF...UNR...ABR...
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 269
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
NEC007-013-031-045-123-157-161-165-030040-
NE
. NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BANNER BOX BUTTE CHERRY
DAWES MORRILL SCOTTS BLUFF
SHERIDAN SIOUX
SDC007-019-031-033-041-047-055-063-071-075-081-093-095-102-103-
105-117-121-137-030040-
SD
. SOUTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BENNETT BUTTE CORSON
CUSTER DEWEY FALL RIVER
HAAKON HARDING JACKSON
JONES LAWRENCE MEADE
MELLETTE OGLALA LAKOTA PENNINGTON
PERKINS STANLEY TODD
ZIEBACH
Read more
MD 0964 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 269... FOR FAR NORTHERN NEBRASKA INTO CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA
Mesoscale Discussion 0964
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0656 PM CDT Tue Jun 02 2026
Areas affected...Far northern Nebraska into central South Dakota
Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 269...
Valid 022356Z - 030200Z
The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 269
continues.
SUMMARY...Thunderstorms developing in proximity to an emerging MCV
may periodically pose a threat for large hail and perhaps damaging
downburst winds. However, the longevity and coverage of this threat
is uncertain given poor environmental wind shear. Downstream watch
issuance will most likely not be needed.
DISCUSSION...Over the past hour, regional radar imagery shows the
gradual emergence of a weak MCV associated with a persistent
convective cluster across south-central SD. New convection continues
to develop in proximity to this feature and along a composite
outflow boundary that is gradually pushing south. Despite this
trend, MRMS data shows that attendant convection has been mostly
short-lived (on the order of an hour or less) and only occasionally
intensifying to severe limits. This is likely a result of
diminishing mid and upper-level flow with southeastward extent that
is modulating overall storm organization/longevity. Nonetheless,
latest RAP mesoanalysis estimate suggest this MCV is approaching a
regional buoyancy maximum where MLCAPE is upwards of around 2000
J/kg. This, combined with increasing ascent on the southern fringe
of the MCV/cold pool as the nocturnal jet intensifies, may support
an increase in thunderstorms and potentially sporadic large hail and
strong/severe downburst winds. Given the poor kinematics, any
severe threat will likely be localized and short lived, which should
preclude the need for downstream watch issuance (though trends will
continue to be monitored).
..Moore.. 06/02/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...FSD...ABR...LBF...UNR...
LAT...LON 44240116 44550073 44920025 45049996 45089944 45019903
44809886 44479870 44079873 43619898 43049968 42890032
42780108 42800156 42860191 43100207 43250199 43360152
43510126 43810114 44240116
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN
Read more
MD 0963 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PARTS OF SOUTH-CENTRAL AND EASTERN NM INTO WEST TX
Mesoscale Discussion 0963
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0548 PM CDT Tue Jun 02 2026
Areas affected...Parts of south-central and eastern NM into west TX
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 022248Z - 030115Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent
SUMMARY...A threat for isolated hail and localized severe gusts will
continue into the evening.
DISCUSSION...Several slow-moving but vigorous storms are ongoing
from parts of south-central/eastern NM into Far West TX as of 2230
UTC, while more isolated strong storms have moved into the western
TX Panhandle. Strong heating and relatively moist low-level
east-southeasterly flow beneath steep midlevel lapse rates has
resulted in moderate to strong destabilization, with MLCAPE of
greater than 2000 J/kg in place outside of areas already influenced
by convective outflow.
Deep-layer flow is generally weak, but the backed low-level flow
veering to weak south-southwesterlies aloft is supporting effective
shear of 20-25 kt, with locally greater values over parts of NM. In
conjunction with the favorable instability, this magnitude of
deep-layer will continue to support potential for strong multicells
and perhaps a transient slow-moving supercell, with attendant
potential for isolated hail and localized severe gusts. Some
consolidation of outflow is possible with time, which could result
in a somewhat broader area of strong to locally severe gusts from
eastern NM into parts of west TX this evening, before convection
generally weakens with the onset of nocturnal cooling/stabilization.
..Dean/Guyer.. 06/02/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...LUB...AMA...MAF...ABQ...EPZ...
LAT...LON 30920518 32200594 33330650 33960465 34660449 35080352
35320312 35830269 36400204 36370169 36060146 35540134
33760218 31830304 29550262 29030308 29180368 29550425
29840455 30490498 30920518
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN
Read more
MD 0962 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 270... FOR NORTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA TO NORTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA
Mesoscale Discussion 0962
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0528 PM CDT Tue Jun 02 2026
Areas affected...northern South Dakota to northeast North Dakota
Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 270...
Valid 022228Z - 030030Z
The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 270
continues.
SUMMARY...The threat for severe wind and hail will most likely be
concentrated from north-central South Dakota to northeast North
Dakota over the next few hours.
DISCUSSION...Regional radar imagery from KMVX and KMBX shows
semi-discrete cells continuing to grow upscale into loosely
organized convective clusters across northeast ND as they migrate
north/northeast along a surface front and a low-level confluence
band. While these storm interactions appear to limiting the
longevity of the severe threat for any particular storm, MRMS and
GOES IR imagery continues to show transient, but intense, updraft
pulses within these clusters.
Further upstream, visible imagery shows steadily building cumulus
and the early stages of sustained deep convection across
north-central SD into south-central ND. Given a weakly capped
thermodynamic environment and focsued low-level ascent, the chance
for additional severe thunderstorms emerging from south-central to
northeast ND appears to be increasing. Given southerly flow through
much of the column and initiation along a meridionally-oriented
boundary, some degree of clustering/upscale growth appears likely
through the evening and may favor a severe wind threat. However,
taken in isolation the wind profile sampled by the nearby KBIS VWP
suggests that window may exist for a few semi-discrete supercells
capable of large hail. Recent high-res guidance appears to support
this idea and suggests the primary severe corridor will be
downstream of this activity for the next few hours.
..Moore.. 06/02/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...FGF...ABR...BIS...
LAT...LON 47470008 48999901 49009745 48869734 48439726 46269889
45839910 45409925 45239937 45149959 45159998 45200022
45330029 45720038 46440041 46940045 47190039 47470008
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-110 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN
Read more
MD 0961 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 269... FOR NORTHEAST WYOMING INTO WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA
Mesoscale Discussion 0961
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0453 PM CDT Tue Jun 02 2026
Areas affected...Northeast Wyoming into western South Dakota
Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 269...
Valid 022153Z - 030000Z
The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 269
continues.
SUMMARY...The threat for severe thunderstorms will likely increase
over the next 2-3 hours across far northeast Wyoming and into
western South Dakota.
DISCUSSION...Latest GOES imagery shows several new attempts at
convective initiation along a weak surface confluence zone draped
across eastern WY into far southeast MT. At least one of these early
attempts is exhibiting steady growth with increasing lightning
counts, suggesting that sustained deep convection is likely in the
next hour or so across northeast WY. Further south, a few cells
within a broader convective cluster are also showing signs of
intensification based on MRMS VIL trends.
This activity will gradually spread northeast over the next few
hours where MLCAPE was recently sampled just over 1500 J/kg with
weak inhibition by a special sounding near Newell, SD (north of the
Rapid City area). This sounding also depicted an elongated hodograph
featuring around 45 knots of effective bulk shear, which will
support organized storms, including the potential for splitting
supercells. Latest CAM guidance appears to be capturing this
environment well and shows an increase in storm coverage and
intensity across western WY over the next 2-3 hours. Based on
current satellite/radar trends, discrete supercells with an
attendant large/very large hail, and perhaps tornado threat, appear
most likely across northwest SD. Further south, upscale growth of
convection in east-central WY will likely support an increasing wind
threat across southwest SD.
..Moore.. 06/02/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...ABR...BIS...UNR...CYS...BYZ...
LAT...LON 44560471 45890343 46160258 46130202 45970164 45640139
45310147 44940177 43320289 43100319 43010371 43000424
43010454 43160479 43560498 44240487 44560471
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-110 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN
Read more
SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0300 PM CDT Tue Jun 02 2026
Valid 022000Z - 031200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PART OF THE
NORTHERN PLAINS...
...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms with large hail, severe wind gusts, and potentially a
couple of tornadoes are expected this afternoon and evening in parts
of the northern Plains. Strong wind gusts and marginal hail will
also be possible in parts of the southern and central High Plains. A
few severe wind gusts may also occur from southern Georgia into
northern and eastern Florida.
...20Z Update...
The forecast remains on track and only minor changes were made with
this update. The primary addition was a CIG1 wind area over parts of
western/central SD. Current thinking is that thunderstorms will
evolve off the Black Hills and grow upscale as they intercept a
diurnally destabilized air mass and gradually strengthening
low-level jet -- promoting some gusts upwards of 75 mph.
..Weinman.. 06/02/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1130 AM CDT Tue Jun 02 2026/
...Northern Plains...
Morning surface analysis places a low over northwest ND, with a cold
front extending southward from this low across western ND and into
northwest SD before becoming oriented more southwestward through
northeast WY into south-central WY. Warm-air advection showers and
thunderstorms are already ongoing in the vicinity of this boundary
across ND. General expectation is for these showers to continue
while remaining predominantly subsevere. By this afternoon,
additional development is anticipated along the slow-moving front
from central ND into western SD and far eastern WY.
Environment preceding the front will be moist and unstable, with
upper 50s/low 60s dewpoints and MLCAPE around 2000 J/kg.
Boundary-parallel shear suggest the potential for both an anafrontal
character and quickly linear mode across much of ND. Even so, some
severe is possible, with large hail (isolated very large) and
damaging gusts as the primary risks. The shear orientation becomes a
bit less parallel to the boundary with southern extent, and there is
some potential for initial supercell structures from south-central
ND through western SD and into far eastern WY. Some low-level
southeasterly flow is expected near the surface low (which is
expected to redevelop southward), resulting in low-level hodographs
that indicate some tornado risk. This risk could be countered by
high LCLs and the likely quick transition to more linear structures.
Some undercutting or movement north of the outflow-augmented cold
front is likely with time, and the potential for development of a
strong to severe evening/overnight MCS appears limited.
...Central/Southern High Plains...
Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are anticipated across the
central and southern High Plains today amid moist low-level
easterlies/southeasterlies and modest southwesterlies aloft. There
is some indication one or two vorticity maxima may move into the
region along the northwestern periphery of the southern Plains
ridging. Shear is weak and a generally disorganized,
outflow-dominant storm structure is expected but some isolated hail
and/or damaging gusts are possible sporadically with the strongest
storms.
...Southeast into Central TX...
Surface analysis places an outflow boundary associated with
convective clusters over OK arcing from northwest TX south of the
Metroplex and into northeast TX. A hot and humid air mass over
central/southeast TX will be supportive of re-development of
afternoon thunderstorms along this outflow boundary. Storms will
likely track southward through the early evening, posing a risk of
locally damaging wind gusts.
...Southeast AL/southern GA into much of FL...
A deepening upper trough and associated large-scale ascent will
augment mesoscale factors (including surface moisture convergence
and sea-breeze boundaries) to support numerous thunderstorms across
the region. Strong buoyancy and modest deep-layer shear could
support occasional storm organization and robust updrafts capable of
producing damaging downbursts. Interactions between ongoing storms
and mesoscale boundaries could also augment updrafts, with the
resultant water loading also producing occasionally strong gusts.
Read more
SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0217 PM CDT Tue Jun 02 2026
Valid 041200Z - 051200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTHERN
NEBRASKA INTO PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS....
...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms capable of large hail and damaging winds are
possible from parts of the northern High Plains into lower
elevations of the northern and central Plains Thursday afternoon
into night. More isolated occurrences of large hail and damaging
winds appear possible in parts of the upper Midwest and upper Great
Lakes.
...Synopsis...
Mid-level zonal flow with multiple embedded shortwave troughs is
forecast from the Northwest to the Upper Midwest on Thursday. At the
surface, high pressure will dominate much of the eastern CONUS with
a more nebulous surface pattern elsewhere.
...Northern/Central Plains...
Lee troughing is expected across the central High Plains through the
day Thursday as a ~50 knot jet streak emerges across the eastern
Wyoming into western South Dakota and the Nebraska Panhandle. As
this occurs, upslope flow will strengthen/moisten across southwest
South Dakota into northeast Wyoming. This upslope region will likely
be the zone for initial severe storm development Thursday afternoon.
Additional storms may also develop eastward along the front and
southward along the dryline. The most favorable zone for severe
supercells is across western South Dakota where moderate to strong
shear will overlap moderate to strong instability near the surface
low/triple point. All severe weather hazards (including very large
hail) will be possible Thursday afternoon and evening with eventual
upscale growth into a MCS into the overnight hours.
Isolated to scattered storms are expected along the diffuse dryline
across the central/southern High Plains. However, mid-level flow is
expected to be weak across this region and lapse rates are not
expected to be that steep. Therefore, any severe weather potential
from this activity should remain quite isolated.
..Bentley.. 06/02/2026
Read more
SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0451 PM CDT Tue Jun 02 2026
Valid 041200Z - 101200Z
...Synopsis...
An upper level shortwave over the Canadian border will continue an
eastward progression on Day 3/Thursday with otherwise weak flow over
the southern half of the CONUS. A more significant trough over the
northern Pacific will approach the west coast on Day 4/Friday,
leading to increased winds across the Pacific Northwest and adjacent
areas. This system continues to move through the northwestern CONUS
on Day 5/Saturday before lifting northeast on Day 6/Sunday. In the
wake of this trough, a cold front is anticipated to spread across
the Pacific Northwest and into the northern Great Basin, temporarily
dropping daytime temperatures below normals over the western third
of the US.
...Portions of the Southwest and Great Basin...
...Day 4-6/Friday-Sunday...
Increasing southwesterly mid-level flow ahead of the approaching
upper-level trough will encourage a dry and breezy environment to
emerge across the Great Basin and Southwest by Day 4/Friday. 40%
Critical probabilities have been introduced where extended guidance
and ensemble probabilities denote a broad area of low RH and strong
winds. This potential will become more widespread and expand farther
east on Day 5/Saturday and continue on Day 6/Sunday as the
upper-level trough progresses. Higher probabilities will likely be
needed if model trends continue to hold past Day 4/Friday.
..Stearns.. 06/02/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
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