RSS Mesoscale Discussions from Storm Prediction Center
WW 4 TORNADO AL FL GA CW 251650Z - 260000Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Tornado Watch Number 4
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1050 AM CST Sun Jan 25 2026
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Tornado Watch for portions of
Southeast Alabama
Western Florida Panhandle
Southwest Georgia
Coastal Waters
* Effective this Sunday morning and evening from 1050 AM until
600 PM CST.
* Primary threats include...
A few tornadoes possible
Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible
SUMMARY...Thunderstorms are intensifying along a cold front over
western Alabama. This activity will spread eastward through the
afternoon, posing a risk of damaging wind gusts and a few tornadoes.
The tornado watch area is approximately along and 55 statute miles
either side of a line from 20 miles west southwest of Evergreen AL
to 25 miles north northeast of Moultrie GA. For a complete depiction
of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS
WOU4).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for
tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch
area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for
threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements
and possible warnings.
&&
AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail
surface and aloft to 0.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind
gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 450. Mean
storm motion vector 25040.
...Hart
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WW 0004 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0004 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET
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MD 0058 CONCERNING HEAVY SNOW FOR NORTHERN PENNSYLVANIA...SOUTHERN NEW YORK...NORTHERN NEW JERSEY...CONNECTICUT...RHODE ISLAND...AND SOUTHERN MASSACHUSETTS.
Mesoscale Discussion 0058
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1055 AM CST Sun Jan 25 2026
Areas affected...northern Pennsylvania...southern New
York...northern New Jersey...Connecticut...Rhode Island...and
southern Massachusetts.
Concerning...Heavy snow
Valid 251655Z - 252100Z
SUMMARY...Heavy snowfall is expected through the afternoon with
rates up to 2 inches per hour.
DISCUSSION...Widespread heavy snow is already ongoing across
Pennsylvania and New Jersey this morning. This heavy snow will shift
northeast through the afternoon. In addition, very heavy rates are
expected to develop across far southeast New York, Connecticut, and
Rhode Island. In this region, very strong 700mb frontogenesis is
forecast between 18Z and 21Z amid strong isentropic ascent.
In addition, amid strong warm-air advection, the transition zone
from snow to sleet is moving rapidly north across eastern
Pennsylvania and New Jersey (as sampled by KDOX Correlation
Coefficient). Expect this transition zone to continue to advect
north during the early afternoon before stalling near the
Connecticut shore by mid-afternoon.
..Bentley.. 01/25/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...BOX...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...BUF...CTP...PBZ...
LAT...LON 40547360 40457485 40387616 40537855 40897905 41537880
42327785 42587441 42457181 42037085 41367074 40587296
40547360
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MD 0057 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELY FOR SOUTHERN AL...FL PANHANDLE...SOUTHWEST GA
Mesoscale Discussion 0057
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0955 AM CST Sun Jan 25 2026
Areas affected...southern AL...FL Panhandle...southwest GA
Concerning...Severe potential...Tornado Watch likely
Valid 251555Z - 251800Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent
SUMMARY...Severe potential will likely increase into early afternoon
with a QLCS and embedded supercells capable of producing damaging
winds and tornadoes. A tornado watch will likely be needed.
DISCUSSION...Along a pronounced cold front to the south-southwest of
a surface cyclone between TCL and SEM, convective intensities appear
to be increasing to the central Gulf Coast. Pre-frontal cells have
also increased over the past hour, and an increasing severe threat
is anticipated as activity matures over the next 2-3 hours. While
pervasive downstream cloud coverage is limiting boundary-layer
heating in the confined warm-moist sector, 60s surface dew points
are sufficient for weak to modest MLCAPE from Mobile Bay and the
western FL Panhandle northward into south-central AL. This
warm-moist sector will shift east through the afternoon and likely
reach southwest GA to the eastern FL Panhandle. Low-level shear is
quite strong with enlarged hodographs favoring
mesocyclone/mesovortex development. Expectation is for a QLCS to
evolve east through the afternoon with a threat for damaging winds
and brief tornadoes. If semi-discrete supercells can form ahead of
and merge into the QLCS, a longer-tracked tornado or two is
possible.
..Grams/Hart.. 01/25/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...FFC...TAE...BMX...MOB...LIX...
LAT...LON 30388857 31858758 32418709 32478584 32218462 32008402
31608382 30688419 29788531 30188614 30388857
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-130 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
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MD 0056 CONCERNING HEAVY SNOW FOR CENTRAL INDIANA TO WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA
Mesoscale Discussion 0056
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0900 AM CST Sun Jan 25 2026
Areas affected...Central Indiana to Western Pennsylvania
Concerning...Heavy snow
Valid 251500Z - 251800Z
SUMMARY...Moderate to heavy snow rates to continue through the
morning.
DISCUSSION...A broad zone of isentropic ascent and frontogenesis
across the Ohio Valley continues to support a widespread region of
moderate snowfall this morning. Within this broad zone, heavier
bands of snow with rates of 1+ inches per hour are being observed.
This appears to be near the corridor of maximum 700mb frontogenesis
based on SPC mesoanalysis. The peak of this frontogenesis appears to
be from near Dayton, OH to Pittsburgh through 18Z before weakening
thereafter.
This also corresponds to a narrow zone 50 to 100 miles north of the
sleet/snow transition zone which based on KILN Correlation
Coefficient seems to have stalled southeast of I-71.
Expect this zone of heavier rates to continue through the morning
before weakening by early afternoon as the primary storm system
shifts farther east and frontogenesis weakens.
..Bentley.. 01/25/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...PBZ...RLX...CLE...ILN...IWX...IND...
LAT...LON 39688605 41218256 41768104 41658024 40917988 39758159
39568256 39228372 38898472 38948541 39208616 39688605
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MD 0055 CONCERNING WINTER MIXED PRECIPITATION FOR EASTERN WEST VIRGINIA AND VIRGINIA INTO THE DELMARVA.
Mesoscale Discussion 0055
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0839 AM CST Sun Jan 25 2026
Areas affected...Eastern West Virginia and Virginia into the
DelMarva.
Concerning...Winter mixed precipitation
Valid 251439Z - 251745Z
SUMMARY...Snow has mostly transitioned to sleet from eastern West
Virginia, across Virginia, and into the DelMarva.
DISCUSSION...Strong warm air advection has supported moderate
precipitation rates through the morning across West
Virginia/Virginia and into the Mid-Atlantic. The 12A IAD RAOB showed
a warm nose slightly below freezing at around 750mb with very strong
(80 knot) southwesterly flow at the altitude of the warm nose. As
such, this warm nose is quickly warming/advecting north and surface
observations of sleet across northeast Virginia and Maryland confirm
this transition. Any areas that remain snow this morning across
Virginia and Maryland will likely transition to sleet within the
next 1 to 2 hours given this strong warm air advection aloft.
Expect precipitation type to remain sleet even as this warm nose
continues to warm given the very cold temperatures at the top of the
boundary layer (-15C) at the KIAD, KRNK, and KGSO 12Z RAOBs. The
moderate precipitation will continue with sleet accumulation of 0.1
to 0.2 inches per hour expected.
..Bentley.. 01/25/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...PHI...AKQ...LWX...RNK...PBZ...RLX...
LAT...LON 38578068 39447911 39657676 39407524 39077473 38657469
36957632 36747696 36607868 36797956 37218037 37978054
38578068
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SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0645 AM CST Sun Jan 25 2026
Valid 251300Z - 261200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHERN
AL...SOUTHWEST GA...AND THE FL PANHANDLE...
...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of the Southeast
states this morning and afternoon. Damaging gusts and a few
tornadoes are the main concerns.
...Portions of the Southeast States...
Early-morning satellite imagery shows a southern-stream shortwave
trough moving across the southern Plains and into the more
single-stream confluent flow across the eastern CONUS. Surface
analysis places the low associated with this shortwave over the
central MS/AL border vicinity. A cold front extends from this low
southwestward through southeast LA and into the western Gulf.
Combination of these features compose the large winter storm system
that is impacting much of the central and eastern CONUS.
Recent regional radar imagery and surface observations reveal an
extensive area of anafrontal showers and thunderstorms from east TX
into MS and TN Valley. Much of this precipitation is falling as
either freezing rain or sleet, with sporadic lightning accompanying
this winter precipitation across east TX, northern/central LA, and
western/northwestern MS. Currently, the warm sector, which extends
from southeast LA across southern AL and southern MS into the FL
Panhandle, is free of any thunderstorms. This is expected to change
throughout the morning as continued moisture advection further
modifies the airmass and modest buoyancy develops ahead of the
advancing cold front. Despite the fast progression of the cold
front, strong deep-layer vertical shear should allow for the
maintenance of deep convection along the frontal zone once it begins
to encounter the modest buoyancy. Additionally, the strong vertical
shear should also allow for some organization/rotation within any
deeper, more persistent updrafts.
Damaging gusts appear to be the primary severe risk, with the risk
concentrated from southern AL and the western FL Panhandle into
southwest GA and the central FL Panhandle where the best
thermodynamics (i.e. 500-1000 J/kg of MLCAPE) are forecast.
Low-level shear is strong enough to support a tornado risk in this
area as well, with the linear nature of the convection favoring
brief cell-in-line/QLCS circulations (in contrast to a more
discrete, supercellular mode). A few discrete cells ahead of the
line cannot be entirely ruled out. However, limited residence time
due to the fast-moving front and likely shallow character due to
limited buoyancy should prevent these updrafts from maturing.
..Mosier/Broyles.. 01/25/2026
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SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1003 AM CST Sun Jan 25 2026
Valid 251630Z - 261200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
SOUTHERN ALABAMA...SOUTHWEST GEORGIA...AND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE....
...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of the Southeast
states this afternoon. Damaging gusts and a few tornadoes are the
main concerns.
...AL/GA/FL...
Morning water vapor imagery shows a potent mid-level shortwave
trough and associated 100kt jet over AR. This feature will track
rapidly eastward across the TN Valley today, with large scale
forcing overspreading the Gulf Coast states. This will aid in the
development of robust thunderstorms along the cold front now
extending from central AL into southeast LA. Ahead of the front,
southerly surface winds will transport Gulf moisture northward and
result in weak but sufficient destabilization for a risk of a few
severe storms. Vertical shear profiles will be favorable for a few
tornadoes if semi-discrete structures can form along/ahead of the
developing QLCS. Otherwise, locally damaging wind gusts are the
main concern. Refer to MCD #0057 for further details.
..Hart/Bentley.. 01/25/2026
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SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1036 AM CST Sun Jan 25 2026
Valid 251700Z - 261200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
No changes to the Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook with minimal fire
weather concerns across CONUS. A dry, post frontal air mass has
infiltrated into much of the Desert Southwest, resulting in relative
humidity falling into the 10-15 percent range this afternoon across
the lower CO River Basin. However, a weakening surface pressure
gradient and reduced northerly winds through the day along with
marginal fuel dryness precludes introduction of highlights.
..Williams.. 01/25/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1136 PM CST Sat Jan 24 2026/
...Synopsis...
Fire weather concerns will be mitigated by recent widespread
precipitation and cold conditions across the CONUS. The pattern will
continue to favor a broad trough across the Central US with an
arctic air mass across much of the central/eastern CONUS. Widespread
precipitation will continue from the central US into the southeast
and eastern US today with a large improvement in status of fuels
across the Southern Plains.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
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