RSS Mesoscale Discussions from Storm Prediction Center
WW 191 TORNADO FL CW 071450Z - 071700Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Tornado Watch Number 191
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
950 AM CDT Thu May 7 2026
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Tornado Watch for portions of
Western Panhandle of Florida
Coastal Waters
* Effective this Thursday morning from 950 AM until NOON CDT.
* Primary threats include...
A couple tornadoes possible
Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible
SUMMARY...A short-term risk for severe thunderstorms and a couple of
tornadoes seemingly exists across the western part of the Florida
Panhandle for the next few hours as a supercell or two moves east
within an unstable and adequately sheared environment.
The tornado watch area is approximately along and 25 statute miles
north and south of a line from 25 miles west northwest of Pensacola
FL to 10 miles southeast of Crestview FL. For a complete depiction
of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS
WOU1).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for
tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch
area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for
threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements
and possible warnings.
&&
AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail
surface and aloft to 1 inch. Extreme turbulence and surface wind
gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean
storm motion vector 27035.
...Smith
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WW 190 TORNADO AL FL GA CW 070655Z - 071400Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Tornado Watch Number 190
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
255 AM EDT Thu May 7 2026
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Tornado Watch for portions of
Southeast Alabama
Central and Eastern Florida Panhandle
Southwest Georgia
Coastal Waters
* Effective this Thursday morning from 255 AM until 1000 AM EDT.
* Primary threats include...
A couple tornadoes possible
Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible
Isolated large hail events to 1 inch in diameter possible
SUMMARY...A line of thunderstorms will continue to push
eastward/southeastward into the moist and unstable airmass in place
over southeast Alabama/southwest Georgia and the central/eastern
Florida Panhandle. Strong deep-layer vertical shear will support the
potential for occasional storm organization within this line, with
the strongest segments capable of damaging gusts and brief
line-embedded tornadoes.
The tornado watch area is approximately along and 65 statute miles
north and south of a line from 50 miles southwest of Dothan AL to 30
miles south of Moultrie GA. For a complete depiction of the watch
see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU0).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for
tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch
area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for
threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements
and possible warnings.
&&
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 189...
AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail
surface and aloft to 1 inch. Extreme turbulence and surface wind
gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean
storm motion vector 28030.
...Mosier
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WW 0191 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 191
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 WNW PNS
TO 15 SE CEW.
WW 191 MAY BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 07/17Z.
..GLEASON..05/07/26
ATTN...WFO...MOB...
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 191
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
FLC033-091-113-071700-
FL
. FLORIDA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ESCAMBIA OKALOOSA SANTA ROSA
GMZ633-634-635-071700-
CW
. ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE
PERDIDO BAY AREA
PENSACOLA BAY AREA INCLUDING SANTA ROSA SOUND
WESTERN CHOCTAWHATCHEE BAY
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
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No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Thu May 7 16:34:06 UTC 2026.
SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0749 AM CDT Thu May 07 2026
Valid 071300Z - 081200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHEAST
ALABAMA INTO PORTIONS OF SOUTH GEORGIA AND NORTHERN
FLORIDA...INCLUDING THE FLORDIA PANHANDLE...
...SUMMARY...
Widely scattered severe storms capable of damaging winds and a
couple tornadoes are possible today across southeast Alabama, and
portions of south Georgia and north Florida, including the
Panhandle. Isolated strong to severe storms are also possible in
parts of the Carolinas, as well as the lower Rio Grande Valley and
Deep South Texas.
...Southern AL/Southern GA/FL Panhandle into northern FL...
Regional radar imagery shows showers and thunderstorms ongoing from
far eastern LA northeastward into southern GA. These storms are
occurring along and ahead of a cold front that extends from a
surface low over northwest GA southwestward into the western Gulf.
The environment preceding this front is moist, modestly buoyant, and
strongly sheared (i.e. 50 to 70 kt of 0-6 km bulk shear). These
conditions are supporting occasional intensification of the updrafts
embedded within the predominately linear structures.
This trend is forecast to continue for at least the next few hours
before the stronger low-level flow (which currently extends from the
western FL Panhandle/southern AL through southern GA) gradually
shifts northeastward. As such, the greatest tornado potential will
exist during the first few hours of the forecast period. Otherwise,
damaging wind gusts will be the primary hazard as storms progress
southeast through the central/western FL Panhandle and northern FL.
...Carolinas...
Buoyancy is expected to be lower here than areas farther southwest,
with poor lapse rates expected to limit instability to generally
less than 500 j/kg. The surface low over northwest GA is forecast to
shift northeastward throughout the day, with low to mid-level wind
fields strengthening at the same time. Ascent near the low and
associated front coupled with the modest buoyancy will result in
occasionally deeper convective elements along and ahead of the cold
front from late morning into afternoon. Robust deep-layer wind
fields across the region will support the potential for damaging
gusts with any deeper, more persistent updrafts.
...Lower Rio Grande Valley/South TX...
A few isolated thunderstorms have developed east of Del Rio where
steep mid-level lapse rates are supporting elevated buoyancy atop a
stable boundary layer (as observed on the 12Z DRT sounding). This
elevated buoyancy will likely persist throughout the day, combining
with strong deep-layer vertical shear (i.e. effective bulk shear
from 50 to 60 kt) to support the potential for supercell structures
capable of isolated large hail and locally damaging wind gusts.
Additionally, there is a low-probability chance for a few storms
farther south into the Lower RGV this evening, where the environment
remains supportive of large hail.
..Mosier/Dean.. 05/07/2026
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SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1120 AM CDT Thu May 07 2026
Valid 071630Z - 081200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE INTO NORTH FLORIDA AND FAR SOUTHERN GEORGIA...
...SUMMARY...
Widely scattered severe storms capable of damaging winds and a brief
tornado are possible through the mid afternoon across the Florida
Panhandle into north Florida and far southern Georgia. Isolated
strong to severe storms are also possible in parts of the Carolinas,
as well as south-central Texas.
...FL Panhandle into north FL and far southern GA...
A mid-level vorticity lobe over the Mid South is forecast to rapidly
move east and reach the NC Outer Banks by mid evening. Late morning
satellite/radar imagery shows a broken band of strong to severe
thunderstorms ahead of a cold front and draped west-southwest to
east-northeast. A moist and fully modified boundary layer extends
from the northeast Gulf into the FL Panhandle and Big Bend with
notably drier air over interior north FL. Convergence along the
front is forecast to weaken late today into tonight as a weak low
over the Carolinas shifts offshore. However, the prefrontal airmass
will remain moist, moderately unstable, and strongly sheared (50+ kt
effective shear) across the FL Panhandle vicinity through the mid
afternoon. Embedded cells within the bands will potentially be
capable of wind damage and perhaps a brief tornado before this
activity gradually weakens as it moves into a less-buoyant regime
farther east of north FL.
...Carolinas...
Some thinning of cloud cover and modest heating ahead of the cold
front will yield weak buoyancy prior to the front clearing the coast
later today. Weak low-level lapse rates will tend to limit the
overall severe risk (i.e., localized wind damage potential).
However, will maintain low wind probabilities this outlook update
due to the possibility for a couple of deeper updrafts to organize
within a region with strong deep-layer wind fields.
...Edwards Plateau into the Lower Rio Grande Valley...
Elevated buoyancy will likely persist throughout the day with a few
stronger updrafts intermittently developing over the Hill Country
and Edwards Plateau. Strong deep-layer vertical shear (i.e.
effective bulk shear from 50 to 60 kt) and 1000+ J/kg MUCAPE may
support the potential for an isolated risk for marginally severe
hail. Farther south and displaced away from the higher terrain,
very low thunderstorm coverage is expected despite a modifying and
more moist airmass. Have trimmed hail probabilities over this
region due to the lack of storm coverage in the latest model
guidance.
..Smith/Chalmers.. 05/07/2026
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SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1132 AM CDT Thu May 07 2026
Valid 071700Z - 081200Z
...Morning Update...
A deep, dry airmass aloft was depicted in the 12z TBW sounding.
Clear skies across the FL Peninsula are promoting rising
temperatures and ample boundary layer mixing. Current surface
observations portray sporadic wind gusts of 15-20 mph along the FL
First Coast and sustained winds increasing to 10 mph. Relative
humidity will quickly decline this afternoon as maximum temperatures
approach the low-mid 90s F where 95-98th percentile ERCs exist,
supportive of an Elevated fire weather threat. See the previous
discussion for more information.
..Elizalde-Garcia.. 05/07/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1258 AM CDT Thu May 07 2026/
...Synopsis...
An upper-level trough and attendant strong mid-level southwesterly
flow will progress eastward into the eastern CONUS today. A related
cold front and associated rainfall will near the Southeast Coast by
this afternoon. Elevated west to southwest winds south of the
advancing front amid low relative humidity and dry fuels will bring
a fire weather threat to portions of FL today. An upper ridge
building over the western U.S. will promote warm and dry conditions
across the region today.
...Florida Peninsula...
West to southwest winds of around 10 mph with higher gusts across
northern FL will evolve within a tightening pressure gradient
manifested by an advancing cold front to the north. Near record high
surface temperatures within a dry and well-mixed boundary layer
reaching the lower to middle 90s F, will promote afternoon RH of
25-35% across inland and eastern portions of the FL Peninsula.
Numerous active wildfires are present across northern FL amid a very
dry and drought stressed fuelscape. The dry conditions combined with
an emerging steady west to southwest wind late morning through the
afternoon will support an Elevated fire weather threat in portions
of northeastern and east-central FL Peninsula.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
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