RSS Mesoscale Discussions from Storm Prediction Center
No watches are valid as of Wed Feb 25 12:38:02 UTC 2026.
No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Wed Feb 25 12:38:02 UTC 2026.
SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0225 AM CST Wed Feb 25 2026
Valid 271200Z - 281200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms will be possible across the Southeast on Friday.
Organized severe thunderstorms are not expected.
... Discussion ...
Showers and a few thunderstorms will likely be ongoing at the start
of the forecast period across portions of the Southeast along and
south of a slow moving surface front. These showers and
thunderstorms will likely be aided by a modest low-level
jet/warm-air advection regime. These thunderstorms will persist into
early Friday afternoon within a moist, uncapped environment and
broad troughing aloft. Meager instability (on the order of less than
500 J/kg), decreasing convergence along the surface front, and
generally weakening kinematic field should preclude any organized
severe potential.
..Marsh.. 02/25/2026
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Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook RESENT 1
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0439 AM CST Wed Feb 25 2026
Valid 281200Z - 051200Z
...DISCUSSION...
Ensemble guidance continues to support a large-scale change to the
overall upper-air pattern during this forecast period. The western
ridge/eastern trough should flip, evolving toward a western trough
and eastern ridge. As this happens, southwest mid-level flow into
the central US will support a gradual warming/moistening of the
Plains' low-level environment. Details of how far north and the
overall quality of the moisture return remain to be seen.
This moisture return will begin in earnest on Saturday (Day 4) as
southerly winds take hold across the central US. However, a cold
front will suppress this low-level moisture south into central Texas
on Sunday and Monday (Days 5 and 6), with some guidance members
suggesting a reinforcing frontal push on Tuesday.
By the middle of next week (Days 7 and 8), the frontal boundary
should weaken across Texas and redevelop northward. This will allow
low-level moisture to begin advancing northward into the Central
Plains. However the speed and strength of this low-level moisture
advection varies greatly between different ensembles and even within
the membership of specific ensembles. As such, the overall potential
for organized severe weather on any day looks to be too low for
unconditional probabilities. However, pattern recognition suggests
thunderstorm (and severe) potential should increase across portions
of the central US just beyond this forecast period.
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SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0235 AM CST Wed Feb 25 2026
Valid 261200Z - 271200Z
...Synopsis...
...Portions South-Central Texas...
A modest surface low pressure center will shift southward across
central and southern Texas on Thursday, with a weak, dry cold front
bringing dry and breezy northerly surface winds to portions of
south-central Texas. Warm/dry conditions on Wednesday will aid in
the drying of finer fuels, thus sustained winds of 15-20 mph
overlapping RH values of 15-20% are expected to support Elevated
fire weather conditions Thursday afternoon.
...Portions of the Central and Southern High Plains...
Strengthening high pressure across the Wyoming Basin and
northwestern Colorado will support a strong cross-terrain pressure
gradient across the central Rockies underneath modest northwesterly
mid-level flow. This will favor strong downslope winds of 15-25 mph
(locally higher in terrain-favored areas) and RH values of 15-20%
downstream of the Laramie Mountains and Central Rockies. With
receptive fuels in place across the region, Elevated fire weather
highlights have been added for portions of the central and southern
High Plains.
..Chalmers/Wendt.. 02/25/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
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