RSS Mesoscale Discussions from Storm Prediction Center
No watches are valid as of Thu Jul 23 12:42:02 UTC 2026.
No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Thu Jul 23 12:42:02 UTC 2026.
SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0738 AM CDT Thu Jul 23 2026
Valid 231300Z - 241200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS WESTERN
KANSAS...
...SUMMARY...
Widely scattered severe storms capable of severe wind gusts and
large hail are possible over portions of the central and southern
High Plains this afternoon and evening. More isolated occurrences of
damaging wind are possible from the middle Texas coast into Deep
South Texas, the eastern Carolinas, and parts of the Columbia Basin
into the northern Intermountain region.
...Central/southern High Plains including western Kansas...
Strong boundary-layer heating is forecast in the vicinity of a High
Plains surface front and dryline this afternoon with temperatures
reaching the mid 90s to around 105 F. The hot temperatures will
combine with dewpoints in the mid 50s to mid 60s and modestly steep
mid-level lapse rates to yield a narrow axis of moderate instability
with MLCAPE of 1500-2500 J/kg across western Kansas southward into
western Oklahoma and the eastern Texas Panhandle. Forcing for ascent
preceding a shortwave trough is expected to contribute to isolated
to widely scattered thunderstorms by mid-afternoon from the vicinity
of the thermal low in southeast Colorado to along the front and
dryline from northeast Colorado into the Oklahoma/Texas Panhandles.
Forecast soundings along the front feature a vertically veering wind
profile with 30-35 kt of deep-layer shear, which will be sufficient
for at least episodic supercell structures with a risk
for large hail. In contrast, the storms forming in the hot, deeply
mixed air mass west of the boundary are more likely to produce
sporadic severe wind gusts. A corridor of more concentrated severe
wind gusts may materialize across portions of southwest Kansas by
evening, particularly if organized cold pool development occurs with
an evening time low-level jet increase.
...Middle Texas Coast to Deep South Texas...
As Bertha continues westward over the northwest Gulf, a belt of
enhanced mid-level flow will precede Bertha and spread atop a hot
and moist boundary layer inland, with moderate instability
developing by afternoon along the middle Texas coast. Similar to
Wednesday, widely scattered thunderstorms are expected during the
afternoon within an environment characterized by 30-40 kt of
deep-layer shear, steep low-level lapse rates, and high PW content.
As such, the potential will exist for locally damaging downburst
winds as storms spread west-southwestward along the coast into Deep
South Texas during the afternoon and evening.
...Columbia Basin/northern Intermountain West...
Weak height falls are expected while mid/upper-level winds
strengthen regionally ahead of an upper low off the coast of the
Pacific Northwest. Daytime heating along favored terrain, in
conjunction with the glancing influence of the passing disturbance,
will aid in isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms by
mid-afternoon within a moderately unstable and steep lapse rate
environment. The strengthening upper-level winds will enhance
vertical shear, supporting the potential for some storm organization
with an associated risk for locally damaging wind gusts and
marginally severe hail.
...Eastern Carolinas...
A very moist air mass and cloud breaks to the south of
front-associated convection early today across North Carolina should
allow for at least moderate destabilization across parts of the
coastal plain. This may result in a corridor of more concentrated
thunderstorm development, near the intersection of the outflow from
the morning storms with the sea-breeze boundary. Modest deep-layer
shear will coincide with steepening low-level lapse rates and high
PW content to yield locally intense wet microbursts capable of
damaging winds this afternoon until around sunset.
..Guyer/Broyles.. 07/23/2026
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