RSS Mesoscale Discussions from Storm Prediction Center
No watches are valid as of Tue Feb 3 21:03:02 UTC 2026.
No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Tue Feb 3 21:03:02 UTC 2026.
SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1015 AM CST Tue Feb 03 2026
Valid 031630Z - 041200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not forecast through tonight across the
contiguous United States.
...Synopsis...
Upper pattern is expected to amplify today, largely a consequence of
a deepening central/eastern CONUS upper trough. This large-scale
deepening will be fostered by the progression and evolution of
several shortwave troughs as they move through the western and
southern periphery of the parent upper troughing. The first of these
waves is currently moving southeastward through the Lower MO Valley,
with continued east-southeastward/eastward motion expected to take
this wave across the Mid-South, TN Valley, and central Appalachians
today.
A modest warm sector precedes this lead wave, with some low-level
moisture return currently noted across the TX Coastal Plains into
central and east TX. Some moisture return today will continue as the
shortwave progresses eastward and an associated cold front pushes
southeastward across TX and the Mid-South/Lower MS Valley. However,
much of the central Gulf basin remains fairly dry due to previous
frontal intrusions, likely limiting the overall moisture return from
the Lower MS Valley eastward across the remainder of the Southeast.
This will confine the better low-level moisture return to the TX
Gulf Coast and southwest LA. Warm-air advection across this modestly
moist portion of the warm sector could contribute to some buoyancy.
However, tempered heating and poor lapse rates will mitigate the
overall magnitude of any buoyancy that does develop. Even so,
occasional updrafts should still be deep enough for isolated
lightning, particularly from east TX into central LA where the
highest thunderstorm coverage is anticipated. Modest vertical shear
will be in place, but the overall severe risk will be limited by
weak buoyancy.
..Mosier/Thornton.. 02/03/2026
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SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0141 PM CST Tue Feb 03 2026
Valid 032000Z - 041200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not forecast through tonight across the
contiguous United States.
...20z Update...
Minor adjustments were made to bring the thunder line further north
into Middle Tennessee to account for trends over the last couple of
hours. Otherwise, the outlook remains unchanged. See previous
discussion below for more information.
..Thornton.. 02/03/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1015 AM CST Tue Feb 03 2026/
...Synopsis...
Upper pattern is expected to amplify today, largely a consequence of
a deepening central/eastern CONUS upper trough. This large-scale
deepening will be fostered by the progression and evolution of
several shortwave troughs as they move through the western and
southern periphery of the parent upper troughing. The first of these
waves is currently moving southeastward through the Lower MO Valley,
with continued east-southeastward/eastward motion expected to take
this wave across the Mid-South, TN Valley, and central Appalachians
today.
A modest warm sector precedes this lead wave, with some low-level
moisture return currently noted across the TX Coastal Plains into
central and east TX. Some moisture return today will continue as the
shortwave progresses eastward and an associated cold front pushes
southeastward across TX and the Mid-South/Lower MS Valley. However,
much of the central Gulf basin remains fairly dry due to previous
frontal intrusions, likely limiting the overall moisture return from
the Lower MS Valley eastward across the remainder of the Southeast.
This will confine the better low-level moisture return to the TX
Gulf Coast and southwest LA. Warm-air advection across this modestly
moist portion of the warm sector could contribute to some buoyancy.
However, tempered heating and poor lapse rates will mitigate the
overall magnitude of any buoyancy that does develop. Even so,
occasional updrafts should still be deep enough for isolated
lightning, particularly from east TX into central LA where the
highest thunderstorm coverage is anticipated. Modest vertical shear
will be in place, but the overall severe risk will be limited by
weak buoyancy.
Read more
SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1031 AM CST Tue Feb 03 2026
Valid 041200Z - 051200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Severe storms are not expected on Wednesday or Wednesday night.
...Discussion...
A highly amplified upper pattern is anticipated Wednesday with a
longwave trough over the East and an anticyclone/ridge in the West.
A positive-tilt shortwave impulse digging through the basal portion
of the trough will yield weak cyclogenesis over the Southeast. A
surface cold front will trail southwestward from this cyclone into
the northwest Gulf on Wednesday morning. A combination of 50s
boundary-layer dew points and weak mid-level lapse rates should
support only scant surface to slightly elevated buoyancy near the
front. Low thunder probabilities are apparent during the morning to
afternoon, along a portion of the Gulf Coast from far southeast LA
to the FL Panhandle. The paucity of instability and modest
lower-level shear should minimize severe-storm potential.
..Grams.. 02/03/2026
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SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1250 PM CST Tue Feb 03 2026
Valid 051200Z - 061200Z
...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are not forecast on Thursday or Thursday night.
...Discussion...
Conditions will be too dry/stable for lightning-producing convection
across the CONUS through the period. Low-topped convection may
accompany the trailing portion of a cold front pushing through
central to south FL on Thursday morning into early afternoon. A
dearth of instability is expected to preclude thunder potential over
the peninsula, with any thunderstorm development limited to the Gulf
Stream east of the Southeast Atlantic Coast.
..Grams.. 02/03/2026
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SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0125 PM CST Tue Feb 03 2026
Valid 041200Z - 051200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
...Afternoon Update Southern CA...
Offshore winds are expected to increase over parts of the Desert
Southwest and southern CA late Day 1 Tuesday and continue through
Day 2 Wednesday. Easterly pressure gradients of 5-7 mb will support
gusts of 30-40 mph at ridge top level and through local terrain
gaps. With poor overnight humidity recoveries below 30% expected,
some localized fire-weather concerns are possible. However, fuel
moisture remains high enough to limit a greater fire weather concern
despite some alignment of dry/windy conditions.
...Southern Plains and far south TX...
A few hours of gusty winds are expected with the frontal intrusion
across far south TX Wednesday and Wednesday night. With afternoon RH
below 30% and winds occasionally gusting to 15-20 mph, some
localized fire-weather concerns are possible within drier short hour
fuels. However, more widespread dry fuels are lacking, and the
arrival of a cooler air mass suggest the overall threat remains low.
See the previous discussion for additional information.
..Lyons.. 02/03/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1235 AM CST Tue Feb 03 2026/
...Synopsis...
The eastern trough/western ridge upper-level pattern on Wednesday
will become more amplified. At the surface, high pressure is
expected to become more entrenched over much of the CONUS.
...Southern High Plains...
Behind the cold front, northerly winds will spread across West Texas
into parts of central Texas. Winds of 15-20 mph will be possible,
though the strongest winds will occur where temperatures are cooler
and RH is higher. Fuels are not overly receptive, but some localized
concerns are possible.
...Florida...
With a surface low evolving within the southern
Appalachians/Piedmont, southwesterly winds will modestly increase
across the Florida Peninsula. With a dry airmass in place, RH could
fall below 30% as temperatures rise into the 60s F. Winds may still
struggle to reach 10 mph. Only locally elevated fire weather is
expected.
...Southern California...
Dry and breezy conditions are expected to last into the afternoon.
The strongest winds will occur during the early morning. RH of
10-20% appears possible along with winds of 15-25 mph. Even with
these conditions, fuel moisture remains high enough to limit a
greater fire weather concern.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
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