RSS Mesoscale Discussions from Storm Prediction Center
WW 443 SEVERE TSTM IA MN SD 022310Z - 030700Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 443
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
610 PM CDT Thu Jul 2 2026
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of
Northwest Iowa
Southwest Minnesota
Southeast South Dakota
* Effective this Thursday night and Friday morning from 610 PM
until 200 AM CDT.
* Primary threats include...
Scattered damaging winds likely with isolated significant gusts
to 80 mph possible
Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2
inches in diameter possible
A tornado or two possible
SUMMARY...A well-organized/fast-moving line of storms will move into
southwest Minnesota, with additional development to the south across
southeast South Dakota, likely moving into northwest Iowa/southwest
Minnesota through tonight.
The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 40
statute miles east and west of a line from 50 miles north northwest
of Redwood Falls MN to 60 miles south southwest of Worthington MN.
For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch
outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU3).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.
&&
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 437...WW 438...WW
439...WW 440...WW 441...WW 442...
AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 70 knots. A
few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 600. Mean storm motion vector
26030.
...Guyer
Read more
WW 442 SEVERE TSTM CO KS NE 022225Z - 030500Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 442
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
525 PM CDT Thu Jul 2 2026
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of
Northeast Colorado
Western Kansas
Southwest Nebraska
* Effective this Thursday afternoon from 525 PM until Midnight
CDT.
* Primary threats include...
Scattered damaging winds and isolated significant gusts to 75
mph possible
Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2
inches in diameter possible
SUMMARY...Severe storms are expected to increase in multiple
corridors across the region, with large hail and damaging winds as
the primary hazards, which includes the potential for multiple
linear clusters to develop and organize this evening.
The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 70
statute miles east and west of a line from 60 miles south of Garden
City KS to 50 miles west northwest of Mccook NE. For a complete
depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update
(WOUS64 KWNS WOU2).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.
&&
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 437...WW 438...WW
439...WW 440...WW 441...
AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 65 knots. A
few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 600. Mean storm motion vector
24025.
...Guyer
Read more
WW 441 SEVERE TSTM MT ND SD WY 022205Z - 030500Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 441
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
405 PM MDT Thu Jul 2 2026
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of
Southeast Montana
Western North Dakota
Western South Dakota
Northeast Wyoming
* Effective this Thursday afternoon and evening from 405 PM until
1100 PM MDT.
* Primary threats include...
Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2.5
inches in diameter possible
Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible
A tornado or two possible
SUMMARY...Scattered severe thunderstorms will continue to develop
across the region into this evening, with large hail and
severe-caliber winds as the primary hazards.
The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 70
statute miles east and west of a line from 45 miles north northeast
of Baker MT to 10 miles south southwest of Rapid City SD. For a
complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline
update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU1).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.
&&
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 437...WW 438...WW
439...WW 440...
AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
2.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A
few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector
25025.
...Guyer
Read more
WW 440 SEVERE TSTM WI LM 022020Z - 030300Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 440
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
320 PM CDT Thu Jul 2 2026
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of
Southern Wisconsin
Lake Michigan
* Effective this Thursday afternoon and evening from 320 PM until
1000 PM CDT.
* Primary threats include...
Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible
Isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter possible
A tornado or two possible
SUMMARY...A large cluster of thunderstorms, including a few
supercells will track eastward across southern Wisconsin this
afternoon and evening. Damaging winds and large hail are the main
concerns, although a tornado or two is also possible.
The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 50
statute miles north and south of a line from 10 miles west southwest
of Lonerock WI to 20 miles north northeast of Milwaukee WI. For a
complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline
update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU0).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.
&&
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 437...WW 438...WW 439...
AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A
few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector
26025.
...Hart
Read more
WW 439 SEVERE TSTM SD 021900Z - 030200Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 439
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
200 PM CDT Thu Jul 2 2026
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of
Central and Eastern South Dakota
* Effective this Thursday afternoon and evening from 200 PM until
900 PM CDT.
* Primary threats include...
Scattered damaging winds and isolated significant gusts to 75
mph likely
Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2.5
inches in diameter likely
A tornado or two possible
SUMMARY...Thunderstorms are rapidly intensifying over central South
Dakota near a surface boundary. These storms will track slowly
eastward through the watch area during the afternoon, with a risk of
large hail and damaging wind gusts.
The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 45
statute miles north and south of a line from 40 miles west southwest
of Pierre SD to 30 miles north northeast of Brookings SD. For a
complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline
update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU9).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.
&&
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 437...WW 438...
AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
2.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 65 knots. A
few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 550. Mean storm motion vector
26025.
...Hart
Read more
WW 438 SEVERE TSTM AL MS TN 021840Z - 030100Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 438
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
140 PM CDT Thu Jul 2 2026
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of
Northern Alabama
Northeast Mississippi
Western and Middle Tennessee
* Effective this Thursday afternoon and evening from 140 PM until
800 PM CDT.
* Primary threats include...
Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely
Isolated large hail events to 1 inch in diameter possible
SUMMARY...Widely scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop
this afternoon in a hot and humid air mass. These slow-moving
storms will pose a risk of locally damaging wind gusts.
The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 70
statute miles east and west of a line from 10 miles west northwest
of Fort Campbell KY to 25 miles south of Huntsville AL. For a
complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline
update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU8).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.
&&
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 437...
AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
1 inch. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few
cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector
09015.
...Hart
Read more
WW 437 SEVERE TSTM IA WI 021745Z - 030000Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 437
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1245 PM CDT Thu Jul 2 2026
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of
Northeast Iowa
Southwest Wisconsin
* Effective this Thursday afternoon and evening from 1245 PM
until 700 PM CDT.
* Primary threats include...
Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely
Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2
inches in diameter possible
A tornado or two possible
SUMMARY...Thunderstorms are intensifying over north-central Iowa.
These storms will track eastward along and north of a surface
boundary into a strongly unstable air mass. Damaging winds and
large hail are possible.
The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 45
statute miles north and south of a line from 25 miles south of Mason
City IA to 20 miles northeast of Dubuque IA. For a complete
depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update
(WOUS64 KWNS WOU7).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.
&&
AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A
few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector
26025.
...Hart
Read more
WW 0443 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0443 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET
Read more
WW 0442 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 442
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..BROYLES..07/02/26
ATTN...WFO...GLD...BOU...DDC...GID...LBF...
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 442
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
COC017-063-121-125-030040-
CO
. COLORADO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CHEYENNE KIT CARSON WASHINGTON
YUMA
KSC023-039-055-057-063-065-067-069-071-075-081-083-093-101-109-
119-129-135-137-147-153-163-171-175-179-181-187-189-193-195-199-
203-030040-
KS
. KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CHEYENNE DECATUR FINNEY
FORD GOVE GRAHAM
GRANT GRAY GREELEY
HAMILTON HASKELL HODGEMAN
KEARNY LANE LOGAN
MEADE MORTON NESS
NORTON PHILLIPS RAWLINS
ROOKS SCOTT SEWARD
SHERIDAN SHERMAN STANTON
STEVENS THOMAS TREGO
Read more
WW 0441 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 441
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..BROYLES..07/02/26
ATTN...WFO...BYZ...GGW...BIS...UNR...
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 441
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
MTC011-025-075-109-030040-
MT
. MONTANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CARTER FALLON POWDER RIVER
WIBAUX
NDC001-007-011-033-041-087-089-030040-
ND
. NORTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ADAMS BILLINGS BOWMAN
GOLDEN VALLEY HETTINGER SLOPE
STARK
SDC019-055-063-081-093-103-105-137-030040-
SD
. SOUTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BUTTE HAAKON HARDING
LAWRENCE MEADE PENNINGTON
Read more
WW 0440 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 440
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SSW LNR
TO 20 SE MSN TO 20 SSW GRB.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1449
..MOORE..07/02/26
ATTN...WFO...MKX...
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 440
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
WIC027-039-045-055-059-065-079-089-101-105-117-127-131-133-
030140-
WI
. WISCONSIN COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
DODGE FOND DU LAC GREEN
JEFFERSON KENOSHA LAFAYETTE
MILWAUKEE OZAUKEE RACINE
ROCK SHEBOYGAN WALWORTH
WASHINGTON WAUKESHA
LMZ643-644-645-646-030140-
CW
. ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE
SHEBOYGAN TO PORT WASHINGTON WI
PORT WASHINGTON TO NORTH POINT LIGHT WI
Read more
WW 0439 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 439
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..BROYLES..07/02/26
ATTN...WFO...FSD...ABR...
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 439
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
SDC003-005-011-015-017-025-029-039-049-051-057-059-065-069-073-
075-077-085-097-107-111-115-117-119-030040-
SD
. SOUTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
AURORA BEADLE BROOKINGS
BRULE BUFFALO CLARK
CODINGTON DEUEL FAULK
GRANT HAMLIN HAND
HUGHES HYDE JERAULD
JONES KINGSBURY LYMAN
MINER POTTER SANBORN
SPINK STANLEY SULLY
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
Read more
WW 0438 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 438
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 WSW BWG
TO 30 S CKV TO 50 SSW BNA TO 35 WNW CHA TO 20 NW RMG TO 20 W GAD
TO 30 NW BHM TO 50 NNE MSL TO 15 W MKL.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1454
..MOORE..07/02/26
ATTN...WFO...HUN...MEG...OHX...
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 438
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ALC043-049-071-083-089-095-103-030140-
AL
. ALABAMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CULLMAN DEKALB JACKSON
LIMESTONE MADISON MARSHALL
MORGAN
TNC005-017-031-039-051-053-055-061-077-079-081-083-085-101-103-
113-125-127-135-161-183-030140-
TN
. TENNESSEE COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BENTON CARROLL COFFEE
DECATUR FRANKLIN GIBSON
GILES GRUNDY HENDERSON
HENRY HICKMAN HOUSTON
HUMPHREYS LEWIS LINCOLN
MADISON MONTGOMERY MOORE
Read more
WW 0437 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 437
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1451
..MOORE..07/02/26
ATTN...WFO...ARX...DVN...DMX...
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 437
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
IAC009-011-013-015-017-019-023-025-027-037-043-045-049-055-061-
065-067-069-073-075-077-079-083-091-097-099-105-113-127-153-157-
169-171-187-197-030040-
IA
. IOWA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
AUDUBON BENTON BLACK HAWK
BOONE BREMER BUCHANAN
BUTLER CALHOUN CARROLL
CHICKASAW CLAYTON CLINTON
DALLAS DELAWARE DUBUQUE
FAYETTE FLOYD FRANKLIN
GREENE GRUNDY GUTHRIE
HAMILTON HARDIN HUMBOLDT
JACKSON JASPER JONES
LINN MARSHALL POLK
POWESHIEK STORY TAMA
WEBSTER WRIGHT
WIC023-043-103-030040-
WI
Read more
MD 1457 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 442... FOR CENTRAL AND EASTERN NEBRASKA
Mesoscale Discussion 1457
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0751 PM CDT Thu Jul 02 2026
Areas affected...Central and Eastern Nebraska
Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 442...
Valid 030051Z - 030145Z
The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 442
continues.
SUMMARY...A severe threat is expected to develop across parts of
central and eastern Nebraska this evening. Severe wind gusts and
isolated large hail will be possible. Weather watch issuance may be
needed this evening.
DISCUSSION...The latest surface analysis shows a very moist airmass
in place over central and eastern Nebraska, where many observation
sites have dewpoints in the lower 70s F. This is contributing to
strong instability, with the RAP showing MLCAPE ranging from around
4500 J/kg in southern Nebraska to near 2500 J/kg in northeastern
Nebraska. To the west of this axis of instability, a mid-level
shortwave trough is evident on water vapor imagery over the central
High Plains. As this feature moves eastward into the central Plains
and as the low-level jet strengthens, convective coverage is
expected to increase. Along and near the axis of instability, the
RAP has 0-6 km shear in the 30 to 40 knot range, suggesting that a
severe threat will be possible. The primary threat will be damaging
wind gusts, but isolated large hail will also be possible.
..Broyles.. 07/03/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...FSD...OAX...GID...LBF...
LAT...LON 40139832 40799724 41589662 42169654 42469669 42669713
42759800 42559912 42050014 41430059 41020062 40640050
40270008 40039927 40139832
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN
Read more
MD 1456 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR NORTHEAST ILLINOIS
Mesoscale Discussion 1456
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0740 PM CDT Thu Jul 02 2026
Areas affected...Northeast Illinois
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible
Valid 030040Z - 030245Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent
SUMMARY...Thunderstorms developing across northeast Illinois may
pose a risk of large hail and damaging winds through the late
evening hours. Watch issuance is possible if T-storm
coverage/intensity sufficiently increases.
DISCUSSION...The early stages of thunderstorm development are noted
along a subtle low-level confluence band across northeast IL and
into extreme southeast WI. This confluence band remains just ahead
of a more prominent outflow boundary quickly approaching from the
west. The pre-outflow environment over the greater Chicago area was
recently sampled by an ACARs sounding out of Midway, which depicted
a largely uncapped and buoyant, but only modestly sheared,
environment. However, an upstream 00 UTC RAOB from DVN (taken ahead
of the outflow boundary) sampled stronger (40 knot) mid-level flow
that is likely approaching the region.
Based on these observations, there is reason to expect some degree
of storm organization in the coming hours across northeast IL as the
stronger mid-level flow spreads east. Emerging convection will
likely trend towards clusters with time given the orientation of the
zone of initiation with the mean flow, but a supercell or two
appears possible - both ahead of and along/behind the primary
outflow boundary - in the next few hours. Guidance continues to
handle this regime poorly, and it's unclear if convection will
intensify to severe limits before reaching the Lake Michigan shore.
Nonetheless, trends will be monitored, and watch issuance is
possible if the severe threat appreciably increases.
..Moore/Guyer.. 07/03/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...LOT...MKX...DVN...
LAT...LON 41398901 41568941 42058951 42418957 42638923 42778849
42798767 42528767 42308771 42118762 41998752 41868746
41768748 41398750 41398901
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN
Read more
MD 1455 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR FAR NORTHEAST NEW YORK INTO NORTHERN VERMONT...NEW HAMPSHIRE...AND WESTERN MAINE
Mesoscale Discussion 1455
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0713 PM CDT Thu Jul 02 2026
Areas affected...Far northeast New York into northern Vermont...New
Hampshire...and western Maine
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 030013Z - 030215Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent
SUMMARY...A band of thunderstorms cross the international border may
pose a damaging wind threat in the coming hours across portions of
the Northeast. Watch issuance is not likely, however.
DISCUSSION...Latest MRMS mosaics show a broken band of storms
migrating eastward across southern Quebec and beginning to
cross/approach the international border. Velocity data from CASBV
shows some pockets of stronger winds, but an outflow boundary is
also noted emanating from the southwestern flank of the band. This
suggests that while some swaths of strong/damaging winds are
possible in the near term, the near-storm environment is not
favorable for additional development. Furthermore, GOES IR imagery
has shown some degree of cloud-top warming over the past hour,
suggesting a slight weakening trend. Nonetheless, recent RAP
mesoanalysis depicts 30-40 knots of effective shear and around 1500
J/kg MLCAPE across the region that may support these bands for the
next couple of hours. Based on the aforementioned velocity
observations, some threat for damaging winds will likely accompany
these storms. With time, nocturnal cooling will promote increasing
inhibition and will act as a modulating factor for thunderstorm
intensity, which should limit the overall severe risk and negate the
need for a watch.
..Moore/Guyer.. 07/03/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...CAR...GYX...BTV...
LAT...LON 44467370 44777398 45027405 45047272 45027166 45557086
45777040 45666970 45356941 44916965 44467007 44167089
44087158 44077235 44197313 44467370
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN
Read more
SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0745 PM CDT Thu Jul 02 2026
Valid 030100Z - 031200Z
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS FAR
EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA INTO FAR SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA AND EXTREME
NORTHWEST IOWA...
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF
THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS TO THE GREAT LAKES AND WESTERN KANSAS...
...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe storms are still possible from the northern Plains
into the Midwest and Great Lakes regions this evening. More isolated
severe storms will be possible across the Central High Plains.
...High Plains into the Midwest...
Several clusters of thunderstorms are ongoing across portions of the
Dakotas into northern Iowa and southern Wisconsin/northern Illinois.
Across the western Dakotas, clusters of multi-cell and supercells
are ongoing. Given moderate instability and some supercellular
modes, large hail to very large hail and damaging wind will continue
to be a threat through the evening. Additional thunderstorms may
move out of Montana and or southern Canada through the evening with
additional chances for large hail and damaging wind.
A cluster across southeastern South Dakota moving into
Minnesota/Iowa has a history of producing significant gusts 90-100
mph. More recent observations have been around 60-70 mph. It is
likely that the damaging wind potential will continue downstream for
the next couple of hours, with potential for additional development
along the trailing outflow into northern Nebraska later this
evening. The 00z sounding from OAX sampled a large cape profile with
steep low to mid-level lapse rates.Confidence in exact evolution
remains low but some CAM guidance does suggest a secondary MCS
structure may move eastward later this evening across northern Iowa.
Given the large MLCAPE gradient extending across southern South
Dakota into northern Iowa and a continued reservoir of steep low to
mid-level lapse rates, this may pose additional potential for
damaging wind through the evening.
...Central High Plains...
A few isolated supercells are ongoing across portions of eastern
Colorado, southern Nebraska, and western Kansas. These have had
occasional stronger MESH cores around 2 inches. The 00z sounding
from DDC sampled strong instability and steep low to mid-level lapse
rates amid large dew point depressions within the near surface
profile. Given strong deep layer shear, inverted v soundings, and
moderate to strong instability, these supercells will continue to
pose a risk for large to very large hail and severe wind.
...Northeast...
A line of thunderstorms is sagging southward out of Quebec. These
may pose some potential for a few instances of strong to severe wind
through the evening. See MCD#1455 for more information.
..Thornton.. 07/03/2026
Read more
SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0415 PM CDT Thu Jul 02 2026
Valid 041200Z - 101200Z
...Discussion...
An upper level trough and strong westerly flow aloft will traverse
the Inland Northwest on Day 3/Saturday, while a surface low in
southern Alberta will send a dry cold front through the region.
Tightening surface pressure gradients should support gusty downslope
winds and low RH across the Columbia Basin, promoting localized fire
concerns where ERCs are forecast to approach the 80th percentile.
Upper-level ridging will gradually build across Southwest on Day
3/Saturday. As high pressure organizes into the Four Corners beyond
Day 4/Sunday, southerly flow aloft will encourage mid-level
monsoonal moisture to advect northward. This pattern will support
daily chances of mixed wet/dry thunderstorms across portions of the
Southwest, Great Basin, and Southern Rockies. A dry sub-cloud layer
should initially inhibit greater rainfall production, increasing the
potential for lightning ignitions where very dry fuels exist. Dry
Thunderstorm probabilities were not included on Days
4-5/Sunday-Monday due to uncertainties in the overlap of stronger
instability and extent of mid-level moisture; however, trends will
be monitored for the introduction of highlights in future outlooks.
Eastern CONUS upper ridging will flatten on Day 3/Saturday as a
shortwave trough slowly traverses the Great Lakes region through Day
5/Monday. Daily chances for precipitation will exist across the
Eastern Seaboard through next week, though portions of the Piedmont
and Southeast will largely remain dry. Localized fire concerns may
emerge where occasionally gusty winds and low RH overlap dry fuels.
..Elizalde-Garcia.. 07/02/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
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