RSS Mesoscale Discussions from Storm Prediction Center
No watches are valid as of Mon Jan 19 09:34:01 UTC 2026.
No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Mon Jan 19 09:34:01 UTC 2026.
SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1157 PM CST Sun Jan 18 2026
Valid 191200Z - 201200Z
...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are not expected in the U.S. today or tonight.
...DISCUSSION...
A large-scale cyclonic mid-level flow pattern will be in place
across the U.S. today. At the surface, a large area of high pressure
will remain over the Gulf Coast region, as another cold front
advances southeastward into the Southeast. Behind this front, a
large surface high will settle into the central states. This will
reinforce a cold and dry airmass, making conditions unfavorable for
thunderstorm development over the continental U.S. today and
tonight.
..Broyles/Weinman.. 01/19/2026
Read more
SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1204 AM CST Mon Jan 19 2026
Valid 201200Z - 211200Z
...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are not expected on Tuesday or Tuesday night.
...Synopsis...
The next in a series of upper shortwave troughs will migrate from
the Rockies toward the Upper Midwest and Plains on Tuesday. Surface
cyclogenesis will occur across the northern and central High Plains
as a result. This area of low pressure will lift northeast overnight
toward the Great Lakes. Southerly surface winds will develop in
response to these features across the western Gulf Basin, allowing
for meager airmass modification and northward transport of minor
boundary layer moisture across portions of South TX and the coastal
plain vicinity by early Wednesday. However, poor instability and
weak forcing for ascent will preclude thunderstorm potential.
Elsewhere, a cold, dry, and stable airmass will preclude
thunderstorm activity.
..Leitman.. 01/19/2026
Read more
SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0218 AM CST Mon Jan 19 2026
Valid 211200Z - 221200Z
...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are not expected on Wednesday.
...Synopsis...
The base of a trough oriented over the middle of the CONUS will
swing eastward across TX into the Lower MS Valley on Wednesday.
Modified Gulf moisture will be in place across the TX coastal plain
toward the Sabine Valley ahead of a surface cold front. Shallow
convection/showers will be possible ahead of the front from coastal
and east TX into the Mid-South. However, instability will be very
weak inland and thunderstorm potential appears too low to include a
general thunderstorm area.
..Leitman.. 01/19/2026
Read more
Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0331 AM CST Mon Jan 19 2026
Valid 221200Z - 271200Z
...DISCUSSION...
Severe potential is expected to be low during the Day 4-8 period.
Some modest Gulf moisture will impinge on the coastal regions from
TX into MS/AL/FL beginning Day 4/Thu. Warm advection will allow for
showers and perhaps isolated thunderstorms, but weak forcing for
ascent and only very minor instability will preclude severe
potential. By Day 5-6/Fri-Sat, a deepening upper trough over the
western U.S. will develop east across portions of the Plains and
Midwest. A strong arctic cold front will move across the middle of
the country, ushering in another punch of cold to very cold air and
once again shunting Gulf moisture offshore. Some thunderstorm
activity could occur ahead of this front across the Gulf coast
states, but deeper moisture return is not expected and will be
insufficient for severe storms. Surface high pressure and a
cold/stable airmass will persist over much of the CONUS behind the
arctic cold front on Days 7-8/Sun-Mon.
Read more
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0134 AM CST Mon Jan 19 2026
Valid 191200Z - 201200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
...Synopsis...
Fire-weather concerns are generally low across the CONUS today. The
one exception will be across parts of central into southwest FL,
where dry post-frontal conditions are expected during the afternoon.
A brief overlap of around 10 mph sustained northerly surface winds
and 20-30 percent RH may yield locally elevated fire-weather
conditions.
..Weinman.. 01/19/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0134 AM CST Mon Jan 19 2026
Valid 201200Z - 211200Z
...Synopsis...
Embedded within a belt of enhanced northwest flow aloft, a midlevel
impulse and related jet streak will overspread the northern/central
Rockies and adjacent High Plains during the afternoon. At the same
time, an accompanying surface low will track southeastward along the
northern/central High Plains.
This will result in a tightening pressure gradient and 20-25 mph
sustained northwesterly surface winds (with higher gusts) across
parts of the central High Plains. The combination of these winds and
around 15-20 percent RH will favor elevated to locally critical
fire-weather conditions. Preceding snowfall in the vicinity
(especially along the southern flank of the Elevated area) does cast
some uncertainty on the overall fire risk, and fuel trends will be
monitored for future adjustments to these highlights.
..Weinman.. 01/19/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
|
