RSS Mesoscale Discussions from Storm Prediction Center
WW 410 SEVERE TSTM NE SD 280425Z - 281200Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 410
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1125 PM CDT Sat Jun 27 2026
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of
North-Central Nebraska
South-Central and Southeast South Dakota
* Effective this Saturday night and Sunday morning from 1125 PM
until 700 AM CDT.
* Primary threats include...
Scattered damaging winds and isolated significant gusts to 80
mph possible
Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2
inches in diameter possible
A tornado or two possible
SUMMARY...An evolving bow echo is forecast to continue
east-northeastward across north-central Nebraska and south-central
South Dakota into southeast South Dakota tonight. Strong to severe
gusts are possible with this bow, with a low-probability risk for a
brief line-embedded tornado as well. Additionally, more cellular
activity is possible in the wake of this bow, resulting in a
lingering severe threat across north-central Nebraska and
south-central South Dakota. Primary risk with this more cellular
activity is large to isolated very large hail.
The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 40
statute miles north and south of a line from 30 miles north
northwest of Ainsworth NE to 5 miles northeast of Sioux Falls SD.
For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch
outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU0).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.
&&
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 406...WW 409...
AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 70 knots. A
few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector
27035.
...Mosier
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WW 409 SEVERE TSTM ND 280235Z - 280900Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 409
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1035 PM EDT Sat Jun 27 2026
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of
Central North Dakota
* Effective this Saturday night and Sunday morning from 1035 PM
until 500 AM EDT.
* Primary threats include...
Scattered damaging winds likely with isolated significant gusts
to 75 mph possible
Scattered large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible
A tornado or two possible
SUMMARY...Organized line of strong to severe thunderstorms moving
across western North Dakota is forecast to continue
eastward/northeastward tonight. Strong to severe gusts are the
primary hazard with this line as it moves through central North
Dakota. Some isolated large hail is also possible. Ample low-level
shear suggests a low-probability risk for a brief line-embedded
tornado also exists.
The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 60
statute miles east and west of a line from 50 miles north northeast
of Minot ND to 70 miles south southwest of Jamestown ND. For a
complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline
update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU9).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.
&&
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 406...WW 407...WW 408...
AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 65 knots. A
few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector
26025.
...Mosier
Read more
WW 406 TORNADO ND NE SD 272105Z - 280500Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Tornado Watch Number 406
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
305 PM MDT Sat Jun 27 2026
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Tornado Watch for portions of
Western North Dakota
Northern Nebraska
Western South Dakota
* Effective this Saturday afternoon and evening from 305 PM until
1100 PM MDT.
* Primary threats include...
A few tornadoes and a couple intense tornadoes possible
Scattered damaging winds likely with isolated significant gusts
to 90 mph possible
Scattered large hail likely with isolated very large hail events
to 3.5 inches in diameter possible
SUMMARY...Significant severe storms including supercells are
expected to develop regionally, with large hail and some tornadoes
possible. A prominent damaging wind threat may also unfold into this
evening across the western Dakotas.
The tornado watch area is approximately along and 60 statute miles
east and west of a line from 55 miles north northeast of Williston
ND to 75 miles southeast of Chadron NE. For a complete depiction of
the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS
WOU6).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for
tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch
area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for
threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements
and possible warnings.
&&
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 403...WW 404...WW 405...
AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail
surface and aloft to 3.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind
gusts to 80 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 550. Mean
storm motion vector 23030.
...Guyer
Read more
WW 0410 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 410
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NNE VTN
TO 25 SSW 9V9 TO 25 SE 9V9 TO 30 WNW MHE TO 10 NW HON.
..JEWELL..06/28/26
ATTN...WFO...LBF...FSD...ABR...
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 410
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
NEC015-031-103-280740-
NE
. NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BOYD CHERRY KEYA PAHA
SDC003-009-023-027-035-043-053-061-067-073-079-083-087-097-099-
101-111-125-127-135-280740-
SD
. SOUTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
AURORA BON HOMME CHARLES MIX
CLAY DAVISON DOUGLAS
GREGORY HANSON HUTCHINSON
JERAULD LAKE LINCOLN
MCCOOK MINER MINNEHAHA
MOODY SANBORN TURNER
UNION YANKTON
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
Read more
WW 0409 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 409
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..KERR..06/28/26
ATTN...WFO...BIS...
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 409
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
NDC009-015-021-029-031-043-045-047-049-051-055-069-075-079-083-
093-101-103-280540-
ND
. NORTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BOTTINEAU BURLEIGH DICKEY
EMMONS FOSTER KIDDER
LAMOURE LOGAN MCHENRY
MCINTOSH MCLEAN PIERCE
RENVILLE ROLETTE SHERIDAN
STUTSMAN WARD WELLS
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
Read more
WW 0408 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 408
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 NW SDY TO
30 SSW OLF TO 60 N OLF.
..KERR..06/28/26
ATTN...WFO...GGW...
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 408
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
MTC019-055-083-085-091-105-280340-
MT
. MONTANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
DANIELS MCCONE RICHLAND
ROOSEVELT SHERIDAN VALLEY
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
Read more
WW 0407 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 407
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 S MHN TO
20 SSE BFF.
..KERR..06/28/26
ATTN...WFO...BOU...LBF...CYS...
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 407
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
NEC013-045-069-075-091-123-165-171-280340-
NE
. NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BOX BUTTE DAWES GARDEN
GRANT HOOKER MORRILL
SIOUX THOMAS
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
Read more
WW 0406 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 406
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM AIA TO 25
ENE CDR TO 30 E PHP.
..KERR..06/28/26
ATTN...WFO...BIS...LBF...UNR...ABR...
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 406
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
NEC031-161-280540-
NE
. NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CHERRY SHERIDAN
SDC007-021-065-071-075-095-119-121-123-129-280540-
SD
. SOUTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BENNETT CAMPBELL HUGHES
JACKSON JONES MELLETTE
SULLY TODD TRIPP
WALWORTH
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
Read more
No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Sun Jun 28 07:00:12 UTC 2026.
SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1254 AM CDT Sun Jun 28 2026
Valid 281200Z - 291200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE DAKOTAS
AND NORTHWEST MINNESOTA...AND ACROSS NORTHERN IOWA AND VICINITY...
...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are possible today across northern Iowa and
vicinity, and mainly tonight across the Dakotas. Large to very large
hail and severe winds are the primary hazards.
...Dakotas to IA/WI through tonight...
As the primary cyclone occludes near the southwest SK/southeast AB
border, a belt of south-southwesterly midlevel flow near 50 kt will
be maintained from CO to the Dakotas, east of the broad closed low
over the northern Great Basin/Rockies. A separate lee cyclone is
expected to form in the vicinity of northeast CO this afternoon and
then progress northeastward across NE/SD overnight. A storm cluster
will likely be ongoing near the southwest MN/northwest IA border at
the start of the period, as a continuation of the ongoing storms
along the NE/SD border. These morning storms will pose a threat for
occasional large hail/wind damage along the warm front/buoyancy
gradient through midday/early afternoon. In the wake of the morning
storms, a surface warm front demarcating boundary-layer dewpoints
into the 70s will likewise move northward slowly across IA into
southern MN/WI. West of the morning storms, a warm elevated mixed
layer observed in 00Z soundings across the central Plains will act
to cap the moistening boundary layer and likely inhibit additional
warm sector storm development through much of the period. A few
storms will be possible in ND during the afternoon, though storm
coverage/intensity are both in question given weak-moderate buoyancy
and limited forcing for ascent.
Much of the severe threat will likely be delayed until tonight
immediately north of the lee cyclone into SD. Westward advection of
richer moisture and ascent preceding the surface cyclone (and subtle
embedded speed maxima aloft) will likely support elevated
thunderstorm development overnight across western SD into southern
ND. The environment will favor elevated supercells capable of
producing very large hail (2-3 inches in diameter) and occasional
severe gusts.
Farther east, a zone of low-level warm advection will be focused
across WI by late evening/early tonight along the northeast edge of
the warm elevated mixed layer. Sufficient moistening above the
surface and large CAPE will favor the potential for at least
isolated large hail/strong gusts with largely elevated storms
tonight.
...Carolinas/southern VA this afternoon/evening...
An MCV now over KY will turn more southeastward today, downstream
from an amplifying ridge over the lower and middle MS Valley.
Destabilization and steepening of low-level lapse rates in cloud
breaks, along with ~25 kt midlevel flow, will support isolated wind
damage potential with storm clusters during the afternoon/evening.
...West TX late this afternoon/evening...
Strong surface heating and deep mixing along a sharpening dryline
will allow high-based thunderstorm development from late afternoon
through late evening. Flow aloft will be weak, but inverted-V
profiles will favor isolated severe outflow gusts of 60-75 mph.
..Thompson/Chalmers.. 06/28/2026
Read more
SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0100 AM CDT Sun Jun 28 2026
Valid 291200Z - 301200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN PORTIONS OF
THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST...
...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are possible from parts of the central/northern
Plains into the Upper Midwest on Monday. Large hail and severe winds
are the primary concerns, though a couple of tornadoes may also
occur.
...Synopsis...
A compact shortwave trough will evolve out of the upper trough in
the northern Rockies. The timing of this feature remains a bit
uncertain. The strongest mid-level ascent will likely occur in
eastern Dakotas/western Minnesota after 00Z. A surface low will
deepen within the eastern Dakotas and lift north-northeast with
time. A very moist airmass will be in place between a cold front in
the central Plains and a warm front in the Upper Midwest. Upper
level ridging will continue in the Midwest/East with modest
breakdown of this ridge expected in the Dakotas/Minnesota.
...Eastern Dakotas into northern Minnesota...
The forecast remains rather uncertain across these regions. At least
weak convection appears probable within parts of the Dakotas into
western Minnesota during the morning. How this activity evolves will
play a role in where afternoon severe potential will exist. Model
agreement has marginally increased with regard to the evolution of
the shortwave trough in the northern Plains and the surface low
migrating north-northeast near the Red River. Even so, upper-level
ridging that will persist through much of the period limits
confidence in if and how many storms will develop during the
afternoon/early evening. Should sufficient destabilization occur
near the surface low, a portion of eastern North Dakota into
northwest Minnesota appear to have the greatest relative potential
for severe storms. All severe hazards would be possible given the
50+ kt of effective shear, 4000+ J/kg MLCAPE, and locally stronger
low-level shear. Model solutions for activity near the surface low
and areas southward into eastern South Dakota and western Minnesota
are highly disparate. The ECMWF would suggest some potential for an
MCS to develop near the surface low and track through parts of
northern/east-central Minnesota along the buoyancy gradient. This
particular scenario has been fairly consistent along with the
depiction of a more southern surface low/upper trough. Solutions
such as the RRFS would suggest a supercell or two could occur
farther south along the South Dakota/Minnesota border.
...Nebraska into southern/central Minnesota...
Though the timing of development differs, there has been an
increasing convective signal trend in recent guidance along the cold
front. There is at least some potential for this to occur during
late afternoon with a window for storms to be surface based, but it
is more probable that it occurs after dark when the low-level jet
increases. Large hail could occur early in the convective cycle, but
deep-layer shear parallel to the boundary should mean a quick
transition into linear structures. Severe wind gusts will likely be
the primary concern, though a low-end tornado threat may exist given
the stronger low-level jet.
..Wendt.. 06/28/2026
Read more
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0136 AM CDT Sun Jun 28 2026
Valid 281200Z - 291200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHERN
ARIZONA...SOUTHEASTERN UTAH...WESTERN/SOUTHWESTERN COLORADO...AND
NORTHWESTERN NEW MEXICO...
...Synopsis...
A longwave, upper-level trough will persist over the Intermountain
West today, with one embedded shortwave remaining relatively
stationary across the northern High Plains and a second shortwave
trough pivoting southeastward through Nevada and portions of the
Great Basin. Concurrently, an associated mid-level jet will continue
to be oriented across the Four Corners region while a surface cold
front remains relatively stationary along the western edge of the
Colorado Plateau. This will promote a third consecutive day of
enhanced dry/breezy conditions across portions of the eastern Great
Basin and Southwest today.
...Four Corners region...
A corridor of sustained southwesterly surface winds of 20-25+ mph
(with gusts of 35-40+ mph possible) and minimum RH values of 5-15%
is forecast this afternoon from northern Arizona into southeastern
Utah, western/southwestern Colorado, and northwestern New Mexico.
With this multi-day period of dry/breezy conditions exacerbating
fuel dryness/receptiveness (ERCs noted in the 80-95+ percentiles)
and the anticipation for poor overnight relative humidity recoveries
(RHs noted to be lingering at or below 15-25% across portions of the
Four Corners region as of 0530 UTC), several hours of critical fire
weather conditions (with the potential for localized extremely
critical conditions) are expected this afternoon across much of the
Four Corners region and Colorado Plateau. A broader area of elevated
fire weather concerns is also forecast across adjacent areas of the
Great Basin/Southwest where winds of 15-25 mph will overlap low RH
of 10-20%. Only minor adjustments were made to the drawn areas with
this update to reflect the latest guidance.
Recent guidance also suggests that the shortwave trough rotating
through the base of the longer wavelength troughing will contribute
to a southward surge of the cold front closer to the Four Corners
region later tonight. For areas that experience this frontal
passage, some RH recovery and a shift to northerly/northwesterly
winds can be expected (with a couple hour period of sustained 10-20
mph winds possible).
..Chalmers.. 06/28/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0138 AM CDT Sun Jun 28 2026
Valid 291200Z - 301200Z
...Synopsis...
Longwave upper troughing will continue to remain positioned across
the Intermountain West on D2/Monday. An embedded, mid-level
shortwave trough will eject northeastward across the northern High
Plains, with the strongest mid-level flow shifting northeastward in
tandem with this feature. A second mid-level shortwave will
simultaneously pivot southeastward into the Southwest. Combined with
a persistent dry air mass and lingering enhanced mid-level flow,
this will continue to support expansive fire weather concerns across
portions of the Great Basin and Southwest.
...Southwest/Four Corners region...
Enhanced southwesterly, mid-level flow will continue to persist
across portions of the Southwest and Four Corners region on Monday
ahead of an approaching shortwave trough forecast to pivot
southeastward into southern California Monday afternoon. This will
support sustained southwesterly surface winds of 15-20 mph amid very
low RH values of 10-15%. Several days of antecedent dry, windy
conditions will continue to exacerbate fuel dryness/receptiveness
(with ERCs in the 80th to 95th percentiles or greater across much of
the region). This will promote elevated to locally critical fire
weather concerns across much of Arizona, eastern Utah, western
Colorado, western New Mexico, and portions of southern Wyoming.
Occasional wind gusts of 30+ mph will also be possible, primarily
across portions of western/central Colorado where the strongest
mid-level flow is forecast to overlap a deep, well-mixed boundary
layer. Minor adjustments were made with this outlook cycle to
reflect the latest guidance.
..Chalmers.. 06/28/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
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