RSS Mesoscale Discussions from Storm Prediction Center
No watches are valid as of Sun Apr 5 20:24:01 UTC 2026.
No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Sun Apr 5 20:24:01 UTC 2026.
SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1110 AM CDT Sun Apr 05 2026
Valid 051630Z - 061200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE EASTERN CAROLINAS AND COASTAL MID-ATLANTIC...
...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms with isolated damaging winds may occur this afternoon
across the eastern Carolinas and parts of the Mid-Atlantic region.
...Carolinas/Mid-Atlantic...
Within the base of a broad upper trough centered over eastern Canada
and the Great Lakes, multiple subtle mid-level perturbations over
the Midwest will develop east-northeastward across the Mid-Atlantic
and Carolinas today. Ongoing showers will accompany an
east/southeastward-moving surface cold front, but some cloud breaks
will allow for filtered pre-frontal heating, particularly across the
coastal plain over the eastern Carolinas and far southeast VA.
Up to 100-300 J/kg of MLCAPE should develop across the coastal
Mid-Atlantic, with 500-1000 J/kg MLCAPE possible over the eastern
Carolinas where greater heating should occur. A broken line of
low-topped thunderstorms will develop along/ahead of the cold front
this afternoon as it moves east-southeastward. Modestly curved
low-level hodographs and 25-35 kt of deep-layer shear should support
clusters/bands of convection, with isolated damaging wind gusts
possible where low-level lapse rates can become steepened. However,
poor mid-level lapse rates and generally weak instability are
expected to limit updraft strength and the overall severe threat.
...Upper Midwest...
While low-level moisture will remain quite meager, cold temperatures
aloft and very weak MUCAPE may support a few lightning flashes late
this afternoon and early evening across parts of southeast MN into
northeast IA and southwest WI near a southeastward-moving front.
Gusty winds may occur with this convection in the presence of a
well-mixed boundary layer and strengthening northwesterly winds
aloft. But with minimal instability forecast, the overall severe
threat is expected to remain low.
..Gleason/Wendt.. 04/05/2026
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SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0253 PM CDT Sun Apr 05 2026
Valid 052000Z - 061200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE EASTERN CAROLINAS...
...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms with isolated damaging winds may occur this afternoon
across the eastern Carolinas.
...20z Update...
Latest radar and lightning data shows a band of pre-frontal
convection moving across the Carolinas and far southeast VA. This
activity will continue to pose an isolated wind damage threat for
the next few hours before moving offshore by early evening. 5% wind
probabilities have been adjusted accordingly, and the 10% general
thunder probability highlights regions with remaining MUCAPE ahead
of the approaching cold front. See the previous discussion below for
additional details.
..Moore.. 04/05/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1110 AM CDT Sun Apr 05 2026/
...Carolinas/Mid-Atlantic...
Within the base of a broad upper trough centered over eastern Canada
and the Great Lakes, multiple subtle mid-level perturbations over
the Midwest will develop east-northeastward across the Mid-Atlantic
and Carolinas today. Ongoing showers will accompany an
east/southeastward-moving surface cold front, but some cloud breaks
will allow for filtered pre-frontal heating, particularly across the
coastal plain over the eastern Carolinas and far southeast VA.
Up to 100-300 J/kg of MLCAPE should develop across the coastal
Mid-Atlantic, with 500-1000 J/kg MLCAPE possible over the eastern
Carolinas where greater heating should occur. A broken line of
low-topped thunderstorms will develop along/ahead of the cold front
this afternoon as it moves east-southeastward. Modestly curved
low-level hodographs and 25-35 kt of deep-layer shear should support
clusters/bands of convection, with isolated damaging wind gusts
possible where low-level lapse rates can become steepened. However,
poor mid-level lapse rates and generally weak instability are
expected to limit updraft strength and the overall severe threat.
...Upper Midwest...
While low-level moisture will remain quite meager, cold temperatures
aloft and very weak MUCAPE may support a few lightning flashes late
this afternoon and early evening across parts of southeast MN into
northeast IA and southwest WI near a southeastward-moving front.
Gusty winds may occur with this convection in the presence of a
well-mixed boundary layer and strengthening northwesterly winds
aloft. But with minimal instability forecast, the overall severe
threat is expected to remain low.
Read more
SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1153 AM CDT Sun Apr 05 2026
Valid 061200Z - 071200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected on Monday across
the Florida Peninsula, parts of the Southwest, and portions of
Oregon, but no severe threat is forecast.
...Synopsis...
An upper trough will persist across the eastern U.S. on Monday.
Meanwhile, a shortwave upper trough will migrate across the
Southwest, while another shortwave trough overspreads the Pacific
Northwest late in the period.
At the surface, a cold front will extend across north-central FL
into the Gulf. High pressure will build over the Upper Midwest, and
a dry/stable boundary layer will envelop much of the CONUS, aside
from FL. A seasonally warm/moist airmass ahead of the surface cold
front will support modest destabilization across the FL Peninsula
during the afternoon/early evening. Isolated to scattered
thunderstorms are expected, but poor lapse rates and weak vertical
shear will preclude severe potential.
Additional isolated thunderstorms are possible across portions of
the Southwest. Steep midlevel lapse rates amid increasing midlevel
moisture and weak instability should be sufficient for isolated to
scattered thunderstorm development as the upper shortwave trough
overspreads the region. A few weak thunderstorms may also develop
across portions of Oregon late in the afternoon and evening.
Midlevel moistening is expected as height falls and steepening
midlevel lapse rates overspread the area with the approach of an
upper shortwave trough. Severe storms are not expected in these
areas given modest vertical shear and weak instability.
..Leitman.. 04/05/2026
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SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0133 PM CDT Sun Apr 05 2026
Valid 071200Z - 081200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected on Tuesday across
parts of the Florida Peninsula, and in the southern Rockies/Four
Corners area. No severe threat is forecast across the U.S. Tuesday
and Tuesday night.
...Synopsis...
Several upper shortwave troughs will move across the U.S. on
Tuesday. A pair of troughs will migrate across the eastern U.S. and
Florida. Meanwhile a weak shortwave trough will move across the
southern Rockies and Plains while another moves over the northern
Rockies. At the surface, high pressure will encompass much of the
eastern half of the CONUS while a cold front sags south across
central/southern FL. Isolated thunderstorms may develop ahead of the
cold front across the FL Peninsula. A dry/stable airmass across much
of the rest of the CONUS will preclude thunderstorm activity, though
a few storms are possible as the shortwave upper trough moves across
the Four Corners and southern Rockies vicinity. Severe storms are
not expected.
..Leitman.. 04/05/2026
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SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0112 PM CDT Sun Apr 05 2026
Valid 061200Z - 071200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR MUCH OF THE OKLAHOMA
PANHANDLE...PORTIONS OF THE TEXAS PANHANDLE...NORTHEAST NEW
MEXICO...SOUTHEAST COLORADO...AND SOUTHWEST KANSAS...
A Critical area was added over much of the Oklahoma Panhandle, and
adjacent portions of the Texas Panhandle, northeast New Mexico,
southeast Colorado, and southwest Kansas. As the surface low
strengthens over eastern Colorado, the latest forecast guidance
suggests that southwest surface winds will approach 20-25 mph within
this area for multiple hours during peak heating. Additionally, much
of the Critical area is also experiencing elevated conditions during
the Day 1/Sunday time frame, working to further pre-condition fuels.
The Elevated area was also expanded slightly in accordance with the
latest forecast guidance showing drier air farther east over
portions of south-central Kansas and northwest Oklahoma. Consensus
indicates that the aforementioned cold front will approach northern
portions of the drawn area after sunset. However, given the slow
moving nature and proximity of this front, it's progression will be
monitored closely with future issuances.
..Stearns.. 04/05/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0152 AM CDT Sun Apr 05 2026/
...Synopsis...
Upper-level ridging over the West will begin to dampen on D2/Monday
as an incoming mid-level trough shifts into the Pacific Northwest
and a more second, more subtle, mid-level shortwave trough traverses
eastward over the Southwest. Simultaneously, longwave troughing will
persist across the Northeast, with a cold front continuing to
advance eastward across the Eastern Seaboard. A second cold front
will also progress southward across the central Great
Plains/Midwest.
...Portions of the central/southern High Plains...
Similar to D1/Sunday, a tightened surface pressure gradient will
result in sustained southwesterly winds of 15-20 mph over portions
of the central/southern High Plains on D2/Monday. With minimum RH
values forecast in the 10-15% range during the afternoon and dry,
receptive fuels in place across the region, this will promote
elevated fire weather concerns for portions of northeastern New
Mexico, southeastern Colorado, much of the Texas/Oklahoma
Panhandles, and southwestern Kansas. Latest high-res guidance
suggests that locally greater sustained surface winds of 20-25 mph
may support a brief period of critical fire weather conditions
Monday afternoon, with the greatest potential across the western
Oklahoma Panhandle and immediately adjacent portions of TX/NM/CO.
Critical highlights have been withheld at this time due to
uncertainty regarding the magnitude and duration of stronger
sustained surface winds as well as timing/positioning discrepancies
of an approaching cold front within latest model guidance. Trends
will be monitored for a possible upgrade in future outlooks.
The aforementioned cold front is forecast to progress slowly
southward before stalling in the vicinity of the Elevated area late
Monday evening into Monday night, but it remains uncertain as to how
far south this front will progress. Areas that do see the passage of
the cold front can expect a shift to northeasterly winds and at
least some increase in relative humidity.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
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SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0312 PM CDT Sun Apr 05 2026
Valid 071200Z - 131200Z
Upper-level ridging over the western US will continue to dampen on
Day 3/Tuesday due to an incoming trough over the Pacific Northwest.
This trough will contribute to near-zonal flow across the southern
half of the CONUS on Day 4/Wednesday as it moves along the Canadian
border. On Day 5/Thursday, a cutoff upper-level low approaches the
central California coast. Recent forecast guidance suggests that it
will remain over California through Day 7/Saturday before moving
inland and contributing to potentially multiple days of
precipitation, particularly over California and the Great Basin.
...Southeast (Day 3/Tuesday and Day 4/Wednesday)...
One area that the latest forecast guidance leaves out of much of the
accumulating precipitation is just south/east of the southern
Appalachian Mountains (especially over southern Georgia and South
Carolina). Offshore flow will likely contribute to elevated fire
weather conditions on Day 3/Tuesday across southern Georgia and Day
4/Wednesday over eastern Georgia and southern South Carolina. This
regime will contribute to northeast 10-15 mph winds combined with
RHs down to 25-35% during the peak heating periods over the
aforementioned areas on the respective days. As such, 40%
probabilities were included over these areas.
...Southern Plains (Day 4/Wednesday)...
Another day of tightened surface pressure gradient supports
south-southwest winds of up to 20 mph and RHs down to 10-15% over
portions of the southern High Plains again on Day 4/Wednesday. Much
of this region is favored for accumulating precipitation as the
aforementioned low pressure system moves inland late in the week.
...Great Basin/Southwest (Day 4/Wednesday through Day 6/Friday)...
Some potential for critical conditions will exist across portions of
the Great Basin and Southwest as the upper-level ridge continues to
erode on starting on Day 3/Tuesday. The best chances for sporadic
fire weather conditions under the southerly flow will occur on Day
4/Wednesday through Day 6/Friday. However, recent cooler weather,
precipitation, and resultant questionably receptive fuels will
preclude any probabilities at this time. While this event could
promote a brief period of drier fuel conditions across this region,
additional precipitation also appears likely with the aforementioned
low pressure system later in the week.
..Stearns.. 04/05/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
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