RSS Mesoscale Discussions from Storm Prediction Center
No watches are valid as of Mon Jun 15 05:02:01 UTC 2026.
No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Mon Jun 15 05:02:01 UTC 2026.
SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0742 PM CDT Sun Jun 14 2026
Valid 150100Z - 151200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC REGION INTO ADJACENT
PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEW ENGLAND...
...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorm activity spreading toward the northern Mid Atlantic
urban corridor this evening could still pose a risk for damaging
wind gusts and perhaps an isolated tornado or two, before weakening
and spreading offshore.
...01Z Update...
Low-level lapse rates are beginning to stabilize and the
boundary-layer remains only modestly moist inland of coastal areas
from New Jersey northward. However, the leading edge of a plume of
boundary-layer moisture return characterized by upper 60s to near
70F surface dew points is still contributing to CAPE on the order of
1000 J/kg across parts of central and eastern Maryland into
southeastern Pennsylvania, where temperatures remain near 80 F.
With stronger mid/upper forcing for ascent still upstream, vigorous
thunderstorm development may be maintained into and across much of
eastern Pennsylvania and portions of the lower Hudson Valley through
mid to late evening.
Low-level hodographs across this region still appear conducive to at
least some risk for a tornado, mainly in the more discrete stronger
cells preceding the pre-frontal convective line. While the line has
recently been weakening, some re-intensification still appears
possible, which could be accompanied by increasing potential for
strong to severe surface gusts, in the presence of 40-50 kt
southwesterly deep-layer mean flow.
..Kerr.. 06/15/2026
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