RSS Mesoscale Discussions from Storm Prediction Center
WW 251 SEVERE TSTM TX 292205Z - 300300Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 251
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
505 PM CDT Fri May 29 2026
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of
West and Northwest Texas
* Effective this Friday afternoon and evening from 505 PM until
1000 PM CDT.
* Primary threats include...
Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2
inches in diameter possible
Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible
SUMMARY...Several corridors of at least widely scattered strong to
severe thunderstorms should develop across a broad part of
west/northwest Texas through early/mid-evening, with large hail and
severe-caliber thunderstorm winds possible.
The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 60
statute miles east and west of a line from 50 miles east northeast
of Amarillo TX to 70 miles south southeast of Fort Stockton TX. For
a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline
update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU1).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.
&&
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 250...
AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A
few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector
26020.
...Guyer
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WW 250 SEVERE TSTM OK 292045Z - 300300Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 250
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
345 PM CDT Fri May 29 2026
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of
Northern Oklahoma
* Effective this Friday afternoon and evening from 345 PM until
1000 PM CDT.
* Primary threats include...
Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2
inches in diameter likely
Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely
A tornado or two possible
SUMMARY...Thunderstorms have begun to develop in a warm/humid and
unstable air mass. This activity will track slowly eastward through
early evening, posing a risk of locally damaging wind gusts and
large hail.
The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 40
statute miles north and south of a line from 50 miles southwest of
Alva OK to 60 miles east southeast of Ponca City OK. For a complete
depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update
(WOUS64 KWNS WOU0).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.
&&
AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A
few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector
25025.
...Hart
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WW 0251 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 251
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 ENE HOB
TO 65 NW ABI TO 10 SSE CDS TO 20 ENE PVW TO 35 SSE AMA TO 35 S
AMA TO 20 SW BGD.
..MEAD..05/30/26
ATTN...WFO...AMA...MAF...LUB...SJT...
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 251
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
TXC011-033-045-065-075-081-087-103-105-115-129-135-151-173-179-
191-227-235-317-329-335-353-371-383-415-431-443-461-483-
300240-
TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ARMSTRONG BORDEN BRISCOE
CARSON CHILDRESS COKE
COLLINGSWORTH CRANE CROCKETT
DAWSON DONLEY ECTOR
FISHER GLASSCOCK GRAY
HALL HOWARD IRION
MARTIN MIDLAND MITCHELL
NOLAN PECOS REAGAN
SCURRY STERLING TERRELL
UPTON WHEELER
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
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WW 0250 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 250
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 WNW OKC
TO 40 WSW END TO 20 SW AVK TO 25 WNW AVK.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0900
..MEAD..05/30/26
ATTN...WFO...OUN...TSA...
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 250
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
OKC003-011-047-053-071-073-083-093-103-113-117-119-151-300240-
OK
. OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ALFALFA BLAINE GARFIELD
GRANT KAY KINGFISHER
LOGAN MAJOR NOBLE
OSAGE PAWNEE PAYNE
WOODS
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
Read more
MD 0900 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 250... FOR NORTH-CENTRAL OKLAHOMA
Mesoscale Discussion 0900
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0816 PM CDT Fri May 29 2026
Areas affected...north-central Oklahoma
Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 250...
Valid 300116Z - 300315Z
The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 250
continues.
SUMMARY...The potential for isolated occurrences of large hail
and/or severe wind gusts will persist for the next couple of hours.
DISCUSSION...As of 01:10 UTC, a series of small storms were located
from southern Noble into Garfield and Grant Counties, to the north
of an outflow boundary. It's unclear whether that convection is
truly surface-based or slightly elevated. In either case, ample
instability (see 00 UTC OUN sounding) persists within the inflow air
mass. Both the KTLX and KVNX VWPs indicate a gradual increase in
wind speed in the lowest 1.0-1.5 km AGL, a trend which is expected
to continue through mid to late evening. A resultant increase in
storm-relative inflow may support storm intensification with
attendant risk for large hail and perhaps locally severe wind gusts
for the next couple of hours.
The current expectation is that the remaining valid portion of the
watch will be allowed to expire at 03 UTC.
..Mead.. 05/30/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...TSA...ICT...OUN...
LAT...LON 35939666 35769713 35759767 35769812 36209861 36669876
36969839 37019767 37009682 36959631 36889609 36579608
36329608 36069631 35939666
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN
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SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0759 PM CDT Fri May 29 2026
Valid 300100Z - 301200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
WESTERN TEXAS INTO NORTHERN OKLAHOMA...
...SUMMARY...
Widely scattered strong to severe storms capable of sporadic large
hail and severe winds will linger across the central and southern
Plains through the late evening hours before diminishing by early
morning. More isolated severe thunderstorms will also remain
possible across portion of north-central Montana through late
evening.
...Synopsis...
Regional radar mosaics show widely scattered convection from
northwest KS into north-central OK and across portions of western
Texas. Based on latest GOES imagery and recent RAP upper-air
analyses, modest diffluence aloft associated with the left-exit
region of a subtropical jet resides across northern OK/KS and should
continue to promote thunderstorm development across this region over
the next several hours. Further northwest across Montana, isolated
to widely scattered thunderstorms continue to percolate within the
higher terrain with little forward motion owing to weak mid-level
winds. Across both regions, thunderstorms will likely persist into
the late evening hours with some threat for severe gusts and perhaps
sporadic large hail.
...Kansas/northern Oklahoma...
New convection continues to develop across northwest to
south-central KS within the left-exit region of the upper jet and
within a zone of modest isentropic ascent focused near 850 mb.
Through the evening, additional thunderstorm development appears
likely as the nocturnal low-level jet gradually strengthens.
However, regional VWPs depict diminishing mid-level flow with
northward extent across KS, and dewpoint depressions on the order of
20-30 F coupled with weak low-level winds are favoring outflow
dominant convection with transient organization. Consequently, the
potential for a prolonged or intense severe threat across any one
corridor of the region appears limited - especially heading into the
late evening hours as nocturnal cooling/stabilization becomes more
pronounced. Nonetheless, severe gusts, and perhaps very sporadic
large hail, will remain possible with this activity for the next
several hours as it spreads east/northeast. 5% hail/wind
probabilities were expanded to account for this potential through
04-06 UTC.
...Western Texas...
Thunderstorm coverage has failed to materialize as expected thus far
across much of western TX, though a few thunderstorm clusters are
noted near the Amarillo, TX area, as is percolating convection near
Fort Stockton, TX. Given the dearth of more widespread convection -
likely owing to very weak forcing for ascent and the stabilizing
influence of residual cloud cover - confidence in the severe threat
through late evening is low. However, 00 UTC RAOBs and latest RAP
mesoanalysis estimates continue to show an environment supportive of
organized convection, and recent high-res guidance hints at further
development between the I-10 and I-20 corridors through roughly 04
UTC. The Slight risk has been bifurcated to highlight these two
corridors downstream of ongoing and/or developing intense
convection.
...Montana...
Convection continues to percolated across north-central MT with MRMS
imagery showing occasional periods of intensification to severe
limits with the deeper, more robust convective cores. Weak flow
below 5 km AGL is likely contributing to the slow storm motions and
poor organization, but as hinted by recent trends, convection that
can become sufficiently deep may be influenced by stronger flow
above 5 km and pose a brief threat for large hail and severe winds.
In general, this threat should wane through the late evening hours.
..Moore.. 05/30/2026
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SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0420 PM CDT Fri May 29 2026
Valid 311200Z - 061200Z
...Synopsis...
A stagnant synoptic pattern is expected to continue through the
extended forecast period. An upper trough pushes northeastward into
the Northern Rockies, transitioning into an upper low and hovering
over the Northwest through Day 5/Tuesday. A blocking ridge remains
over the Central U.S. as surface high pressure and associated dry
conditions amid light winds will dominate over the Great Lakes and
Midwest. A North Atlantic trough will persist along the Eastern
Seaboard before developing into an upper low as it moves offshore on
Day 6/Wednesday. Much of the Plains and Southeast will continue to
see opportunities for showers and thunderstorms with deeper boundary
layer moisture in place, keeping broader fire weather concerns low.
The exiting upper-level trough into the Northern Rockies will
promote a gradual warming and drying trend across much of the
Intermountain West and Southwest through the middle of next week.
Diffuse surface pressure gradients will keep winds on the light side
with above normal temperatures and dry conditions supporting drying
and curing of fuels. Longer term model guidance suggests intrusion
of deeper atmospheric moisture into southern AZ and NM, west of the
Divide, as early as Day 5/Tuesday as weak troughing sets up over
Baja California. However, predictability remains low, precluding
introduction of dry thunderstorm probabilities at this time.
..Elizalde-Garcia.. 05/29/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
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