SPC - No watches are valid as of Thu Nov 20 06:03:02 UTC 2025

No watches are valid as of Thu Nov 20 06:03:02 UTC 2025.

SPC MD 2213

MD 2213 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR SOUTHEAST KANSAS INTO NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA...SOUTHWEST MISSOURI AND FAR NORTHWEST ARKANSAS

Mesoscale Discussion 2213
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1151 PM CST Wed Nov 19 2025

Areas affected...Southeast Kansas into northeast
Oklahoma...southwest Missouri and far northwest Arkansas

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 200551Z - 200745Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...Thunderstorms are expected to increase in coverage over
the next several hours across northeast Oklahoma, southeast Kansas
and into southwest Missouri and northwest Arkansas. While buoyancy
is fairly limited, strong shear may compensate and support a few
strong/severe storms.

DISCUSSION...Latest regional radar mosaics show an uptick in
convection across the KS/OK/MO/AR region over the past hour. This
comes as isentropic ascent within a diffuse warm frontal zone
increases in tandem with a strengthening of 925-850 mb winds noted
in upstream VWPs. The warming/moistening in this layer is also
supporting a northward expansion of MUCAPE, and while buoyancy
profiles remain fairly marginal per recent forecast soundings, this
environment has been sufficient for deep convection. Regional VWPs
and mesoanalyses continue to show 40-50 knot deep-layer wind shear
across the region with favorable hodographs for splitting
supercells. The expectation is for transient supercells to emerge
and periodically pose a threat for large hail (most likely between 1
to 1.75 inches in diameter). Storm interactions and motions along
the frontal zone should promote upscale growth into clusters, which
should limit the coverage/longevity of the hail threat. As such,
watch issuance is not expected.

..Moore/Smith.. 11/20/2025

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LZK...SGF...EAX...TSA...TOP...ICT...OUN...

LAT...LON   36239673 36639709 36989730 37369738 37719729 38029696
            38239644 38319501 38149382 37659322 37219307 36769306
            36489320 36249358 36019425 35939549 36019622 36239673 

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN

SPC MD 2212

MD 2212 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR A SMALL PART OF WEST-CENTRAL TEXAS

Mesoscale Discussion 2212
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0955 PM CST Wed Nov 19 2025

Areas affected...a small part of west-central Texas

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 200355Z - 200630Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...A few strong storms are expected through early tonight,
and isolated large hail occur.

DISCUSSION...Moderate southwest flow aloft and subtle height rises
currently exist over the southern Plains, well east of the main
upper trough. While the air mass is moist and unstable, ascent is
currently weak. The 00Z DRT sounding shows PWAT values over 1.70"
along with MLCAPE over 2000 J/kg, and strong upper-level winds.
However, objective analysis indicates the winds around 850 mb are
difluent, and likely resulting in downward motion. Therefore, there
appears to be minimal ascent to support more widespread storms.
However, isolated storms are already present from near the San
Angelo area southward toward the Rio Grande, and some of this
activity may strengthen at times by virtue of the moist air mass and
minimal capping. Conditionally, the environment favors hail within
the strongest cells, and coverage trends will continue to be
monitored.

..Jewell/Smith.. 11/20/2025

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...EWX...SJT...MAF...

LAT...LON   29809960 29180019 28750046 28660078 29000114 29460178
            29680182 31200086 31440048 31499973 31299913 30969898
            30469913 29809960 

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN

SPC Nov 20, 2025 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
      
Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1158 PM CST Wed Nov 19 2025

Valid 201200Z - 211200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible later today into this
evening across the southern Plains. Isolated hail, localized strong
to severe gusts, and a tornado or two are all possible.

...Synopsis...
A mid/upper-level shortwave trough initially extending from the
Southwest into northern Mexico will eject northeastward across parts
of the southern Plains later today. In response to this shortwave, a
surface low will gradually deepen across the south-central Great
Plains and move eastward through the period. A surface boundary
draped across parts of OK/AR in the morning will lift slowly
northward in the advance of the surface low. Upstream, another
shortwave trough will drop southward along the Pacific coast and
evolve into a closed midlevel low across southern CA by the end of
the period. 

...Southern Plains...
Scattered storms will be ongoing across parts of the southern Plains
later this morning, aided by a modest low-level jet and ascent
attendant to the approaching shortwave trough. Initially moderate
MUCAPE and effective shear of 40+ kt could support a few strong to
locally severe storms during the morning from parts of eastern NM
into west/central TX and OK, with a threat of isolated hail and
locally gusty winds. 

Convection will persist through the day, resulting in generally
modest heating and weakening midlevel lapse rates with time. As a
result, while deep-layer shear will remain relatively strong across
the warm sector, potential for organized convection downstream or in
the wake of morning convection remains somewhat uncertain. Depending
on the extent of heating and destabilization, at least some
potential for isolated supercells and/or organized clusters could
evolve during the afternoon and evening, with a threat of marginally
severe hail and locally damaging wind. Some enlargement of low-level
hodographs with time could also support a brief tornado threat from
parts of central/eastern TX into eastern OK and western AR, if any
surface-based supercells can be sustained. 

Farther west, some CAM guidance depicts development of a modestly
organized convective line across NM into west TX during the
afternoon/evening, in closer proximity to the ejecting shortwave
trough. This could pose a threat of strong gusts, but it remains
quite uncertain as to whether instability will be sufficient to
support a severe threat with this scenario.

..Dean/Moore.. 11/20/2025


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