RSS Mesoscale Discussions from Storm Prediction Center
No watches are valid as of Mon Feb 23 12:55:02 UTC 2026.
MD 0117 CONCERNING BLIZZARD FOR PARTS OF THE NORTHEAST AND SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
Mesoscale Discussion 0117
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0413 AM CST Mon Feb 23 2026
Areas affected...parts of the Northeast and southern New England
Concerning...Blizzard
Valid 231013Z - 231515Z
SUMMARY...Very heavy snowfall rates of 2-3 inches per hour and
widespread blizzard conditions should persist across Long Island and
southern New England through 10 AM EST.
DISCUSSION...Classic bomb cyclone/nor'easter off the Northeast coast
will slow its deepening over the next few hours as it tracks
northeastward off the southern New England coast through midday. As
this occurs, multiple bands of very heavy snow from NJ to southeast
MA should consolidate into one primary band across Long Island to
eastern MA through mid-morning. Extremely enlarged low-level
hodographs are indicative of the impressive warm conveyor north of
the cyclone. In addition, very high KDP values detected within and
somewhat below the dendritic growth zone amid base reflectivity
values around 35 dBZ all point to highly prolific snowfall rates of
2-3 in/hr. From eastern Long Island through eastern MA, this appears
likely to persist for several hours. Measured severe wind gusts
should persist in this same region, supporting widespread blizzard
conditions.
The aforementioned slowing of cyclogenesis and northeastward track
will eventually yield a more progressive tapering of very heavy
snowfall rates from the southwest towards late morning.
..Grams.. 02/23/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...GYX...BOX...OKX...ALY...PHI...
LAT...LON 43367044 43067126 42267238 41157375 40447422 40087404
40507316 41007141 41196988 42316988 43367044
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SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0651 AM CST Mon Feb 23 2026
Valid 231300Z - 241200Z
...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are not expected today or tonight.
...Discussion...
Convective potential will be virtually nil today. While isolated
lightning flashes were noted overnight east of Long Island and near
coastal southern New England, lightning-conducive thermodynamic
profiles, in the northwest quadrant of the deep offshore cyclone,
will continue to quickly diminish and shift away from the coast. In
the Pacific Northwest, a few lightning flashes occurred overnight in
coastal Washington, and a sliver of weak buoyancy was observed in
the 12z UIL/Quillayute, WA sounding. However, a trend toward
shortwave ridging and less-lightning-conducive thermodynamic
profiles should effectively end such thunderstorm potential.
..Guyer/Grams.. 02/23/2026
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Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0237 AM CST Mon Feb 23 2026
Valid 261200Z - 031200Z
...DISCUSSION...
The upper-air pattern across the US will remain characterized as
broad, fast, northwest flow for most of the forecast period.
Embedded within this flow, a series of shortwave troughs will move
across the US. The first, and potentially most impactful of these
troughs will move across the eastern US on Thursday and Friday (Days
4 and 5).
A surface low will develop across portions of the Tennessee Valley
early in the day Thursday in response to increasing large-scale
ascent associated with the aforementioned shortwave trough. This low
will quickly move east then northeast, pushing a cold front through
much of the Southeast US. A couple days of moisture return will
result in surface dewpoints in the 50Fs to perhaps low 60Fs ahead of
this cold front. Despite poor lapse rates and meager buoyancy
profiles, strong convergence along the front should yield a narrow
band of forced ascent/convection. A strong low-level jet and curved
low-level hodographs indicated in forecast soundings may support a
few isolated damaging wind gusts or perhaps a brief tornado or two
with this convection, even absent widespread lightning. Although
confidence is increasing that a band of strongly forced convection
will occur along the cold front, confidence remains too low in where
damaging wind gusts/brief tornado may occur to introduce
unconditional 15% severe probabilities.
In the wake of this cold front, the severe potential looks to be
rather limited as surface moisture is suppressed south into the
northern Gulf until next weekend at the earliest, when southerly
return flow should develop across Texas and Oklahoma.
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