RSS Mesoscale Discussions from Storm Prediction Center
No watches are valid as of Wed Jan 21 16:21:02 UTC 2026.
No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Wed Jan 21 16:21:02 UTC 2026.
SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0624 AM CST Wed Jan 21 2026
Valid 211300Z - 221200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated thunderstorms should occur across parts of east/southeast
Texas into the lower Mississippi Valley today and tonight.
...Synopsis and Discussion...
Modest low-level moisture will make some inland advancement today
across east/southeast TX into the lower MS Valley ahead of a surface
cold front as longwave upper troughing persists across the
central/eastern CONUS. A low-amplitude shortwave trough rounding the
base of the large-scale upper trough should continue to encourage
showers and isolated/mainly elevated convection across these areas
through tonight. Instability is expected to remain too weak to
support severe thunderstorms.
..Gleason/Dean.. 01/21/2026
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SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1017 AM CST Wed Jan 21 2026
Valid 211630Z - 221200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated thunderstorms should occur across parts of east/southeast
Texas into the lower Mississippi Valley today and tonight.
...ArkLaTex Region...
The persistent upper trough over the eastern states will maintain
fast cyclonic flow aloft over the Gulf coast states today. A
surface cold front will sag southward across parts of TX/AR/LA and
eventually into MS. The air mass ahead of the front is moderately
moist, with MUCAPE of less than 500 J/kg. This will result in
occasional clusters of thunderstorms, but no severe storms are
anticipated.
...South FL...
A subtle southern-stream shortwave trough will move across the Gulf
and approach FL late tonight. This will result in an increase in
the risk of isolated thunderstorms over southeast FL - mainly after
midnight.
..Hart/Lyons.. 01/21/2026
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