RSS Mesoscale Discussions from Storm Prediction Center
No watches are valid as of Sun Mar 1 10:40:02 UTC 2026.
No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Sun Mar 1 10:40:02 UTC 2026.
SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1234 AM CST Sun Mar 01 2026
Valid 021200Z - 031200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms will be possible on Monday and Monday night across
parts of the central U.S., in south Florida, and from the
Intermountain West into the central High Plains.
...DISCUSSION...
A mid-level shortwave ridge will move eastward across the Great
Plains on Monday. At the surface, a front will become
quasi-stationary across north-central Texas, as a ridge of high
pressure remains over Kansas and western Oklahoma. To the south of
the front, surface dewpoints will be mostly in the 50s F. Over the
top of the post-frontal airmass, south to south-southwest flow will
result in moisture advection. As low-level flow strengthens in the
evening, a pocket of instability is forecast to develop from
northwest Texas to central Kansas. After midnight on the northern
edge of a consolidating low-level jet, scattered thunderstorms will
be possible from north-central and northeast Kansas eastward into
northern Missouri.
Further to the west, additional storms will be possible in the
vicinity of a mid-level trough from the Intermountain West into the
central High Plains. Isolated storms may also develop in south
Florida during the day. No severe threat is expected across the
continental U.S. Monday and Monday night.
..Broyles.. 03/01/2026
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SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0220 AM CST Sun Mar 01 2026
Valid 031200Z - 041200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will be possible from Tuesday
into Tuesday night from parts of the southern and central Plains
eastward into the mid Mississippi Valley. Isolated storms may also
develop in south Florida.
...Southern and Central Plains/Mid Mississippi Valley...
At mid-levels, a shortwave ridge will move eastward into the Ozarks
on Tuesday, as flow becomes southwesterly over the south-central
U.S. Further west, an upper-level trough will move through the Four
Corners region. At the surface, a moist airmass with surface
dewpoints in the 50s and 60s F will advect northward across the
southern Plains and Arklatex. A cold front will move southeastward
into the central Plains. To the south of the front, an axis of
instability is forecast to develop in the afternoon from northwest
Texas into southeast Kansas and the northern Ozarks. The airmass is
expected to be capped across much of Texas and Oklahoma, although an
elevated storm or two will be possible Tuesday night. The greatest
chance for storms will be from eastern Kansas into the northern
Ozarks, where convective development will be aided by lift
associated with the exit region of a 40 to 50 knot low-level jet.
Considerable variance exists among the model solutions concerning
instability, suggesting that any severe threat will be highly
conditional. If moisture return ends up being greater than is
currently forecast, a marginal severe threat may need to be added in
later outlooks.
..Broyles.. 03/01/2026
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Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0359 AM CST Sun Mar 01 2026
Valid 041200Z - 091200Z
...DISCUSSION...
...Wednesday/Day 4 to Thursday/Day 5...
On Wednesday, model forecasts continue to move a mid-level shortwave
trough across the southern Plains. A cold front is forecast to
advance southeastward into Oklahoma as a moist and unstable airmass
resides southward from the front over much of the southern Plains.
Surface dewpoints across southeast Oklahoma and north-central to
northeast Texas should be in the lower to mid 60s F, and moderate
instability will be possible by afternoon. Thunderstorm development
appears likely across parts of this unstable airmass from the mid
afternoon into the evening. Moderate deep-layer shear should support
a severe threat, with a potential for large hail and damaging wind
gusts associated with supercells.
On Thursday, the shortwave trough is forecast to move into the mid
Mississippi Valley, as a much larger upper-level trough moves
through the Desert Southwest. A moist and unstable airmass should
remain in place over the southern Plains. However, large-scale
ascent should be weak between these two systems, which should dampen
the severe potential across most of the south-central U.S. The most
likely location for an isolated to marginal severe threat would be
in the Ark-La-Tex Thursday afternoon.
...Friday/Day 6 to Sunday/Day 8...
At mid-levels, southwest flow is forecast across much of the central
U.S. on Friday, as a large trough remains over the southwestern
states. Moisture advection is expected to continue over the Great
Plains and Upper Midwest along a corridor of strong low-level flow.
Model forecasts are in general agreement that moderate instability
will develop over much of this airmass by Friday afternoon, and that
scattered thunderstorms will form. Convective development will be
supported by the right entrance region of a mid-level jet ejecting
northeastward through the central Plains. This mid-level jet will be
associated with moderate to strong deep-layer shear, supporting
scattered severe storms potentially across a large part of the moist
sector. The current thinking is that the severe threat will be
maximized during the late afternoon and evening from central Texas
northeastward into the lower Missouri Valley. Large hail and
damaging wind gusts are expected to the primary threats, but a few
tornadoes remain possible.
On Saturday, the upper-level system in the central U.S. is forecast
to move into the Great Lakes region, as a cold front advances
quickly southeastward into the western Gulf Coast states, and lower
Mississippi Valley. An isolated severe threat could develop ahead of
the front Saturday afternoon, but confidence is low concerning the
spatial distribution of any threat. On Sunday, isolated to scattered
thunderstorms will again be possible in the Gulf Coast region.
However, deep-layer shear is forecast to be weak over much of this
area, suggesting any severe potential should remain marginal.
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SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0203 AM CST Sun Mar 01 2026
Valid 011200Z - 021200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
...Synopsis...
Shortwave ridging building over the Southwest will weaken flow aloft
over the southern Rockies and High Plains through today. At the same
time, a surface cold front will continue to move south and stall
across the southern Plains States. Ahead of this front, a few hours
of dry and breezy downslope winds could support localized
fire-weather concerns over parts of eastern NM and West TX.
Otherwise, cooler temperatures and precipitation should limit
fire-weather potential.
...Eastern NM and west TX...
Sub-tropical ridging is forecast to build steadily over the
Southwest today, with westerly winds aloft remaining modest over
parts of the southern Rockies and High Plains. Very warm
temperatures, and surface high pressure to the west will favor some
locally breezy winds of 15-20 mph across parts of eastern NM into
far west TX ahead of the sagging cold front. Warm temperatures and
the dry downslope flow will support RH of 15-20% during the
afternoon. While the modest surface winds will preclude broader
fire-weather concerns, locally breezy winds amid dry fuels could
support some brief, locally elevated fire-weather conditions this
afternoon.
..Lyons.. 03/01/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
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SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0204 AM CST Sun Mar 01 2026
Valid 021200Z - 031200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
...Synopsis...
Sub-tropical ridging over the Southwest is forecast to breakdown and
shift eastward ahead of a low-amplitude shortwave troughing moving
from the West. This will support modest lee troughing and increasing
westerly flow over parts of the Southwest and southern Rockies.
While the stronger flow will remain to the west, dry downslope winds
and warm temperatures could support locally elevated fire-weather
conditions D2/Monday.
...Northern NM and far southern CO...
Shortwave troughing and strong westerly flow aloft will move from
the Four Corners eastward into the southern Rockies and High Plains
D2/Monday. Very warm and dry surface conditions (RH below 15%) is
likely through the afternoon. Bolstered by the strengthening flow
aloft, west/southwest downslope winds of 15-25 mph are expected
across eastern AZ, while slightly weaker winds are forecast into
central/northern NM and southern CO. Area fuels are less receptive
farther west where winds are expected to be stronger. Still, some
locally elevated fire-weather conditions are possible from central
and northern NM into southern CO Monday afternoon. The poor
alignment of stronger surface winds with the drier fuels should
preclude more widespread elevated fire-weather concerns.
..Lyons.. 03/01/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
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