RSS Mesoscale Discussions from Storm Prediction Center
WW 13 TORNADO OK TX 052345Z - 060600Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Tornado Watch Number 13
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
545 PM CST Thu Mar 5 2026
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Tornado Watch for portions of
Western Oklahoma
Eastern Texas Panhandle
* Effective this Thursday afternoon from 545 PM until Midnight
CST.
* Primary threats include...
A few tornadoes likely with a couple intense tornadoes possible
Scattered damaging winds and isolated significant gusts to 80
mph likely
Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2.5
inches in diameter likely
SUMMARY...Thunderstorms are expected to intensify rapidly this
evening in an increasingly moist and unstable air mass. Supercells
capable of very large hail and a few tornadoes are the main
concerns.
The tornado watch area is approximately along and 50 statute miles
east and west of a line from 35 miles south southwest of Childress
TX to 75 miles north of Clinton OK. For a complete depiction of the
watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU3).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for
tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch
area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for
threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements
and possible warnings.
&&
AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail
surface and aloft to 2.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind
gusts to 70 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean
storm motion vector 23030.
...Hart
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WW 0013 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0013 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET
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No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Fri Mar 6 00:30:03 UTC 2026.
SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0157 PM CST Thu Mar 05 2026
Valid 052000Z - 061200Z
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE EASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE INTO WESTERN OKLAHOMA...
...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected late this afternoon into
tonight from northwest Texas and the Texas Panhandle into western
Oklahoma and southern/central Kansas. Large to very large hail, a
few tornadoes, and severe/damaging winds are possible.
...20z Update...
No changes have been made to the D1 Convective Outlook with this
update.
Visible satellite continues to show continued mid-level cloud cover
across the far eastern Texas Panhandle into central Oklahoma. A warm
front has shifted northward across central Oklahoma, with 60F dew
points as far north as a line from the Oklahoma City Metro to Tulsa
and northeast OK. Dew points in the Texas Panhandle are also slowly
increasing, with mid to upper 50s. Breaks in the clouds are
increasing across this region, with filtered heating and
temperatures warming into the mid 60s to 70s on the western edge of
the cloud cover. Cu development is noted across the dryline in far
western TX/eastern NM. Steady cumulus development is ongoing across
the southern Texas Panhandle into western OK, with billow clouds
downstream of Cap Rock from Motley, Childress, and Cottle Counties
indicative of continued low-level stability, which is noted in the
18z sounding from AMA.
Thunderstorm development is expected near/just east of the Caprock
Escarpment with a few more hours of additional daytime heating by
late afternoon (4-6 PM CST as mentioned below). Initial development
is expected to be supercelluar, with potential for large to very
large hail. Strengthening of the low-level jet and resulting
increase in low-level shear through the evening will enlarge
hodographs, with an increasing risk for tornadoes, with potential of
a strong tornado (EF2+).
Additional thunderstorm development may also occur across the length
of the dryline into west Texas where a Marginal Risk was maintained.
A Marginal Risk also continues across the Ohio Valley. See previous
discussion below for more information.
..Thornton.. 03/05/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1126 AM CST Thu Mar 05 2026/
...Southern/Central Plains...
An upper trough will amplify over the western U.S. today as a broad
zone of modestly enhanced mid-level southwesterly flow persists over
the southern/central Plains. At the surface, lee cyclogenesis is
forecast to occur across eastern Colorado through this evening,
which will promote continued northward transport of low-level
moisture across Texas into Oklahoma/Kansas. A surface dryline will
also extend southward from the low over the southern High Plains.
Multi-layer cloud cover remains semi-prevalent at late morning but
peripheral gradual clearing is noted across parts of western North
Texas as well as along the New Mexico/Texas border vicinity. The
strongest heating/mixing will occur in vicinity across far
west/northwest Texas, but it seems probable that storm development
will occur within the somewhat richer moisture near/just east of the
Caprock Escarpment including parts of Low Rolling Plains and
Texas/southwest Oklahoma border vicinity. Such development should
occur by around 4pm-6pm CST as convective temperatures are breached.
Somewhat modest/nebulous large-scale ascent will probably support a
multi-hour period of semi-discrete supercells even if effective
shear is not robust and low-level shear/SRH a bit modest during time
of initial development, but nonetheless steadily strengthening
toward/after 00z/6pm CST. This will include associated threats for
large to very large hail initially, potentially up to 2-3 inches in
diameter. The increasing low-level shear through the evening will
also foster enlarged low-level hodographs and the potential for a
few tornadoes with this activity, potentially including a
spatiotemporal window for a strong (EF2+) tornado even if a more
complex mode is evolving. Over time, convection is forecast to grow
upscale into a small but potentially intense cluster as it moves
northeastward into parts of western/northern Oklahoma and southern
Kansas.
Isolated supercells may also occur along the length of the dryline
across west Texas late this afternoon/evening, with associated
threat for occasional large hail and severe wind gusts. However,
confidence in any more than isolated coverage remains low due to
weak large-scale forcing. Farther north, isolated severe hail may
occur tonight with elevated convection in a low-level warm advection
regime across eastern Nebraska, northwest Missouri into Iowa.
...Ohio Valley to the central Appalachians...
A mid-level shortwave trough will move quickly eastward today across
the Ohio Valley. Modest low-level moisture will remain in place
along/south of a front, with generally weak instability forecast
across the warm sector. Even so, sufficiently strong low to
mid-level winds associated with this shortwave trough may promote a
few instances of damaging winds with loosely organized clusters that
develop and spread eastward through the afternoon.
...Florida Peninsula...
Beneath an upper high and within an easterly low-level flow regime,
strong heating will occur today across the Florida Peninsula, with
dewpoints dropping into the mid 60s F. Despite the upper high,
mid-level temperatures (-11 or -12C at 500mb) will remain relatively
cool. Scattered convection appear probable along the western Florida
Peninsula during the afternoon where low-level convergence will be
maximized. Locally strong wind gusts will be possible, although
organized severe thunderstorms are not expected.
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SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0344 PM CST Thu Mar 05 2026
Valid 071200Z - 131200Z
Upper-level flow will split on Day 3/Saturday and a cutoff upper low
will retrograde through Arizona and settle over Baja California by
Day 4/Sunday. This low begins to move eastward across the southwest
US and Mexico on Day 5/Monday and progresses through Texas on Day
7/Wednesday.
On Day 3/Saturday, the placement of the upper low near southern
California will contribute to strong and gusty offshore/northeast
flow over the area. However, elevated live fuel moisture will
inhibit the need for consideration of probabilities over this area.
As a shortwave trough moves across the northern High Plains during
this same time frame, marginally elevated fire weather conditions
are expected to be negated by recent cold temperatures and
precipitation.
On Day 4/Sunday and Day 5/Monday, as the aforementioned cutoff low
begins to move eastward, surface winds will increase to near
Elevated thresholds over northeast New Mexico and western portions
of the Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles. Eastern portions of the
Southwest and western portions of the southern Plains will remain
under dry, but at times cooler, conditions through the outlook
period.
Early next week, there are some differences in forecast guidance
regarding the timing and speed of the cutoff low, but the overall
track remains similar. Given the recent precipitation and the
overall pattern, no areas of critical fire weather are currently
anticipated through the remainder of the extended period.
..Stearns/Nauslar.. 03/05/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
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