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  Monday October 14, 2019

RSS Mesoscale Discussions from Storm Prediction Center

SPC - No watches are valid as of Mon Oct 14 22:19:04 UTC 2019

No watches are valid as of Mon Oct 14 22:19:04 UTC 2019.


No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Mon Oct 14 22:19:04 UTC 2019.

SPC Oct 14, 2019 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
      
Day 1 Outlook Image
Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0214 PM CDT Mon Oct 14 2019

Valid 142000Z - 151200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected across the contiguous U.S.
today and tonight.

...20Z Outlook Update...
No significant changes have been made to the previous forecast. 
Severe thunderstorms are not expected across the CONUS today and
tonight.

..Cook.. 10/14/2019

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1124 AM CDT Mon Oct 14 2019/

...Southern Plains through lower Mississippi Valley...

Scattered showers with embedded widely scattered thunderstorms will
persist from TX into the lower MS valley region in association with
modest isentropic ascent north of a warm front. Sufficient low-level
shear may exist to support weak/transient updraft rotation with any
surface-based storm developing along the warm front across southeast
TX, but any severe threat should remain very marginal. Greater
coverage of thunderstorms might occur later tonight over the
Ark-La-Tex region as destabilization resulting from low-level
theta-e advection increases north of the warm front. 

...Middle Mississippi Valley region...

At least weak destabilization will occur in this region overnight as
a strengthening southwesterly low-level jet transports modifying
continental-polar air northward beneath eastward-advecting plume of
steeper lapse rates. Increasing forcing for ascent within this zone
of isentropic ascent downstream from an approaching northern-stream
shortwave trough should contribute to initiation of a few elevated
thunderstorms from MO into IL and WI later tonight.

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SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
          
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook Image
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0105 PM CDT Mon Oct 14 2019

Valid 151200Z - 161200Z

...NO CRITICAL AREAS...

Tomorrow's fire weather forecast remains on track. Please see the
previous discussion below for more information.

..Elliott.. 10/14/2019

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0134 AM CDT Mon Oct 14 2019/

...Synopsis...
Surface high pressure will move into the central/southern Plains in
the wake of a cold front on D2/Tuesday. Cooler temperatures and
generally weak surface flow will limit potential for fire spread.
Across much of the Intermountain West, dry air will remain in place,
but weak flow at the surface and aloft will similarly limit
concerns.

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

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