RSS Mesoscale Discussions from Storm Prediction Center
No watches are valid as of Fri Jan 30 19:38:02 UTC 2026.
No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Fri Jan 30 19:38:02 UTC 2026.
SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1000 AM CST Fri Jan 30 2026
Valid 301630Z - 311200Z
...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are not expected today or tonight.
...Synopsis and Discussion...
A large-scale upper trough will amplify over the central/eastern
CONUS through tonight. In response, a surface low will gradually
deepen and develop northeastward along/near the Gulf Stream, while
remaining offshore of the Carolinas. Any thunderstorms associated
with the warm sector of the surface cyclone should also remain
offshore. A separate mid-level shortwave trough will overspread
parts of the Pacific Northwest and British Columbia today. While
showers/bands of precipitation are forecast to move inland,
negligible instability is expected to limit thunderstorm potential.
..Gleason/Kerr.. 01/30/2026
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SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0134 PM CST Fri Jan 30 2026
Valid 302000Z - 311200Z
...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are not expected today or tonight.
...20Z Update...
The previous forecast (see below) remains on track.
..Squitieri.. 01/30/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1000 AM CST Fri Jan 30 2026/
...Synopsis and Discussion...
A large-scale upper trough will amplify over the central/eastern
CONUS through tonight. In response, a surface low will gradually
deepen and develop northeastward along/near the Gulf Stream, while
remaining offshore of the Carolinas. Any thunderstorms associated
with the warm sector of the surface cyclone should also remain
offshore. A separate mid-level shortwave trough will overspread
parts of the Pacific Northwest and British Columbia today. While
showers/bands of precipitation are forecast to move inland,
negligible instability is expected to limit thunderstorm potential.
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SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1058 AM CST Fri Jan 30 2026
Valid 311200Z - 011200Z
...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are not forecast across the U.S. tomorrow (Saturday).
...Synopsis...
A pronounced upper trough will amplify along the East Coast as a
second upper trough impinges on the Pacific Northwest tomorrow
(Saturday). The amplification of the East Coast trough will
reinforce surface high pressure and an associated polar airmass
across most of the CONUS, limiting thunderstorm potential. Strong
surface cyclogenesis is anticipated off of the Carolina Coastline,
which may promote the development of thunderstorms. However, these
storms should remain far enough east of the coastal waters to
warrant the withholding of thunderstorm probabilities this outlook.
..Squitieri.. 01/30/2026
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SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1245 PM CST Fri Jan 30 2026
Valid 011200Z - 021200Z
...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are not forecast across the U.S. on Sunday or Sunday
night.
...Synopsis...
An upper trough will continue to migrate across the eastern U.S. on
Sunday. Meanwhile, an intense coastal low off the NC coast will lift
northeast across the northwest Atlantic, offshore from the
Mid-Atlantic and Northeast coasts. Further west, an upper ridge over
the western states will deamplify as it spreads into the Plains.
General surface high pressure will remain in place across portions
of the Rockies, the Mid/Lower MS Valley and the Southeast. This will
keep Gulf moisture offshore as another cold front passage delves
well south into the Gulf Basin. As a result, a mostly dry and stable
airmass will prevail across the CONUS, precluding thunderstorm
activity.
..Leitman.. 01/30/2026
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SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1043 AM CST Fri Jan 30 2026
Valid 301700Z - 311200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
Fire weather concerns will remain minimal across CONUS today. No
changes to the Day 1 Outlook were needed, please see previous
forecast discussion.
..Williams.. 01/30/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1135 PM CST Thu Jan 29 2026/
...Synopsis...
Fire weather concerns will be minimal across the CONUS today.
Surface high pressure and colder air will filter into areas east of
the Divide. Upper-level ridging will be maintained in the West, but
lack of stronger wind fields and receptive fuels will limit concerns
there.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
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SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0127 PM CST Fri Jan 30 2026
Valid 311200Z - 011200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
...Southern Georgia and North Florida...
A strong cold front behind a rapidly deepening low just off the
Carolina Coast will move through the FL Peninsula Saturday. Although
breezy northwest winds of 15-20 mph are expected, a lack of
widespread RH reductions below 35%, considerably colder temperatures
as well as effects from recent precipitation along the FL/GA border
will limit a more widespread fire weather threat across the area.
..Williams.. 01/30/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1136 PM CST Thu Jan 29 2026/
...Synopsis...
A strong upper trough will continue to pivot through the Southeast
on Saturday. A low pressure system will deepen off the East Coast.
While fuels will continue to dry in the West where upper level
ridging will be present, surface high pressure/cold air should
greatly limit fire weather concerns for most areas with drier fuels.
...Southern Georgia into North Florida...
With a low pressure system deepening off the Mid-Atlantic coast,
stronger surface winds will develop behind the cold front within the
Southeast and the Florida Peninsula. Winds of 10-20 mph appear
possible. With cold advection occurring, it is not clear how warm
temperatures will rise or how low RH will fall. There does appear to
be a zone from southern Georgia into North Florida where 25-35% RH
is possible by the afternoon. However, temperatures will still
likely be near 40 F and there is a slight chance for precipitation
as the front moves through late Friday night. Uncertainty is too
high for highlights.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
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