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WW 386 SEVERE TSTM CO KS NE 240435Z - 241100Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 386
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1135 PM CDT Tue Jun 23 2026
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of
Eastern Colorado
Western Kansas
Southwest Nebraska
* Effective this Tuesday night and Wednesday morning from 1135 PM
until 600 AM CDT.
* Primary threats include...
Scattered damaging winds and isolated significant gusts to 75
mph possible
Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2
inches in diameter possible
SUMMARY...Clusters of strong to severe thunderstorms are forecast to
develop and move east and southeast across the Watch area tonight.
A few supercells are possible through the early overnight before
some additional storm merging and consolidation of outflow leads to
upscale growth of a larger linear cluster developing later tonight.
Large to very large hail is possible with the more intense updrafts
(1 to 2 inches in diameter). Scattered severe gusts are possible
with the linear cluster of thunderstorms tonight with peak gusts 60
to 75 mph.
The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 75
statute miles east and west of a line from 65 miles west northwest
of Mccook NE to 10 miles east southeast of Elkhart KS. For a
complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline
update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU6).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.
&&
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 385...
AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 65 knots. A
few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector
32030.
...Smith
Read more
WW 0386 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 386
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..JEWELL..06/24/26
ATTN...WFO...PUB...GLD...DDC...LBF...
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 386
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
COC009-011-017-061-063-099-125-240840-
CO
. COLORADO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BACA BENT CHEYENNE
KIOWA KIT CARSON PROWERS
YUMA
KSC023-039-055-063-067-069-071-075-081-093-101-109-119-129-153-
171-175-179-181-187-189-193-199-203-240840-
KS
. KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CHEYENNE DECATUR FINNEY
GOVE GRANT GRAY
GREELEY HAMILTON HASKELL
KEARNY LANE LOGAN
MEADE MORTON RAWLINS
SCOTT SEWARD SHERIDAN
SHERMAN STANTON STEVENS
THOMAS WALLACE WICHITA
Read more
WW 0385 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 385
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 NE RTN TO
10 NNE TAD TO 15 ESE PUB TO 35 NW LIC TO 20 NNW GLD.
..JEWELL..06/24/26
ATTN...WFO...BOU...GLD...PUB...CYS...
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 385
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
COC025-039-041-055-071-073-089-101-240840-
CO
. COLORADO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CROWLEY ELBERT EL PASO
HUERFANO LAS ANIMAS LINCOLN
OTERO PUEBLO
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
Read more
MD 1290 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 386... FOR WESTERN KANSAS INTO THE PANHANDLES AND NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA
Mesoscale Discussion 1290
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0311 AM CDT Wed Jun 24 2026
Areas affected...western Kansas into the Panhandles and northwest
Oklahoma
Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 386...
Valid 240811Z - 241115Z
The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 386
continues.
SUMMARY...Potential for localized severe hail or wind gusts exists
into western Kansas, and extending southeast of the existing watch
into the northeast Texas Panhandle and far northwest Oklahoma.
Additional watches are not anticipated at this time.
DISCUSSION...Outflow associated with earlier severe storms over
eastern CO is now pushing into southwest KS, and is intersecting a
northwest to southeast oriented line of elevated storms in a zone of
theta-e advection associated with southerly 850 mb winds. VWPs from
AMA to GLD indicate around 15-20 kt out of the south to southeast.
The primary instability axis stretches from southeast CO into
northwest OK, and while SBCIN is increasing, elevated instability
should continue to support areas of new development. New storm cores
may produce hail briefly, and locally damaging gusts may still
occur.
At this time it appears the cold pool from southeast CO into
southwest KS may not be sufficient for significant upscale MCS
growth. However, there is non-zero potential, and the area
south/southeast of WW 386 will continue to be monitored this
morning.
..Jewell.. 06/24/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...OUN...DDC...GLD...AMA...PUB...
LAT...LON 37190264 37810231 38590231 38940246 39200239 39200175
39010092 38680012 38089928 37729891 37089884 36409908
35839976 35770030 35930119 36420154 36840204 37190264
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN
Read more
SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0106 AM CDT Wed Jun 24 2026
Valid 241200Z - 251200Z
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHERN
UTAH...
...SUMMARY...
Widely scattered severe storms are possible across the central High
Plains today with a threat for large to very large hail and severe
wind gusts. More isolated severe storms are possible across portions
of the Upper Midwest, Ozarks to Mississippi, and across northern
Utah.
...Synopsis...
Current satellite imagery depicts upper ridging centered over
northern Mexico, covering much of the Southeast and Texas. This
imagery also shows an upper low centered near the ND/MN/Manitoba
border intersection. These features are expected to remain largely
in place throughout the day Wednesday, with a belt of moderate
mid-level flow extending from the northern/central High Plains into
mid MS Valley between these two features. Most guidance shows a
low-amplitude shortwave trough moving within this westerly flow
across the Dakotas to the Upper MS Valley. A convectively augmented
vorticity maximum is also forecast to arc through the northern
periphery of the Southwest upper ridging, moving across the western
Great Basin during the afternoon before then continuing eastward
across the central Rockies during the evening/overnight. Evolution
of these features, in addition to continued eastward/southeastward
progress of any overnight convective complexes, will result in
scattered to numerous thunderstorms from the Intermountain West to
the MS Valley. Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible over a
few areas within this larger region, including northern/central UT,
the Upper MS Valley, and from the central/southern High Plains into
AR/MS.
...Central/Southern High Plains...
Low-level moisture will remain over the lower elevations of the
southern and central High Plains on Wednesday, combining with strong
heating and steep mid-level lapse rates to support the development
of strong buoyancy by late afternoon. Thunderstorms are possible
across the majority of the region, with the highest coverage
anticipated from south-central/southeast WY into
northeast/east-central CO, where buoyancy is maximized as well.
Deep-layer shear will be quite strong within this corridor as well,
with 0-6 km shear from 55 to 65 kt possible. These conditions
support the potential for robust supercells capable of large to very
large hail. Hail from 3" to 4" in diameter is possible. Notable
low-level curvature of the hodograph could support a tornado or two
in this region as well, although the weak winds around 700 mb could
result in slow supercell motion and potential for more storm
interactions. Eventual upscale growth into forward-propagating MCS
capable of strong to severe gusts is probable.
Lower storm coverage is anticipated farther south, with warmer
temperatures and higher cloud bases suggesting a predominantly
outflow-dominant storm mode. Strong to severe gusts will be the
primary risk, although some isolated hail is possible as well.
...Great Basin...
Thunderstorms are expected to develop across the region during the
afternoon, as the convectively augmented vorticity maximum mentioned
in the synopsis interacts with modest mid-level moisture and
resulting buoyancy. A deeply-mixed sub-cloud layer will support
potential thunderstorms capable of damaging winds, particularly
across northern UT where higher thunderstorm coverage is
anticipated.
...Upper Midwest...
A modest surface low, attendant to the low-amplitude shortwave
trough moving across the Dakotas to the Upper MS Valley, is forecast
to shift eastward just ahead of the parent shortwave. Temperatures
are forecast to warm into the 70s ahead this low, which should be
sufficient for modest buoyancy given the low 60s dewpoints. The belt
of stronger mid-level flow will also support moderate vertical shear
(i.e. around 40 of 0-6 km shear) and the potential for more
organized storm structures capable of large hail and damaging gusts.
...South-Central KS/OK/Arklatex into MS...
Evolution of the thunderstorms ongoing across eastern CO will
significantly influence the early-day severe storm potential across
the region. Current expectation is for some remnant of whatever
cluster develops to be over south-central KS/north-central OK at the
start of the period, perhaps beginning to interact with the western
extent of a zone of warm-air advection showers and thunderstorms
extending from north-central OK into southern AR/northern LA. Low
predictability limits forecast confidence, but some limited severe
potential, both within the cluster and within the more cellular
warm-air advection storms, could exist in the morning if this
scenario materializes. The downstream airmass will be very moist,
and is forecast to destabilize as temperatures climb into the low
80s. This could lead to a reintensification of the cluster and/or
new development along its outflow. Deep-layer shear will be weak,
but strong updrafts could result in enough water loading to produce
a few strong gusts as the cluster continues southeastward.
...Southern MS/AL...
Some guidance indicates the cluster currently moving across northern
LA restrengthens as it moves through southern MS and southern AL
later this morning/afternoon. Like the areas farther northwest, this
region will be weakly sheared, but a few stronger water-loaded gusts
are possible.
..Mosier/Chalmers.. 06/24/2026
Read more
SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1258 AM CDT Wed Jun 24 2026
Valid 251200Z - 261200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS INTO SOUTHERN KANSAS AND NORTHERN
OKLAHOMA AND INTO THE OZARKS....
...SUMMARY...
Scattered strong to severe storms are possible across portions of
the High Plains with a threat for large hail and severe wind. Storms
are also expected across southern Kansas and northern Oklahoma into
the Ozarks where large hail, severe winds, and a few tornadoes are
all possible.
...Synopsis...
A low-amplitude shortwave trough will move through the Great Lakes
during the day on Thursday. A weak surface low will move across
Ontario with a trailing cold front into the Ohio Valley. Farther
west, several mid-level shortwave troughs will be embedded within
the broader zonal flow across the Plains. The most prominant feature
will be a mid-level shortwave trough that is forecast to move from
eastern Colorado Thursday morning to the Ozarks by the evening. A
lee surface cyclone is forecast in the Texas Panhandle vicinity.
...High Plains...
Widespread convection/cloud cover is likely from northern Colorado
into eastern Wyoming on Thursday morning. This will limit
surface-based instability across the region for much of the day.
Eventual destabilization is expected by late afternoon/early evening
as the cloud cover clears. As a mid-level shortwave trough moves
through Wyoming, expect storms to develop during the evening with
some severe wind potential. The lack of strong heating has lessened
hail and significant wind potential across this region. Therefore,
the CIG1 area has been removed.
Farther south, stronger heating/destabilization is expected which,
combined with moderate mid-level flow, may support some supercell
threat with weak upslope flow across southeast Kansas, and
continuing east along the frontal boundary into the OK/TX
Panhandles.
...Northern Oklahoma/southern Kansas into the Ozarks...
A morning MCS is expected to move along/north of a frontal zone
across Kansas during the morning on Thursday. In the wake of this
morning MCS, strong destabilization is forecast with moderate
mid-level flow aloft. Therefore, supercells are expected to develop
on the remnant outflow/frontal zone Thursday afternoon and evening
from southern Kansas and northern Oklahoma potentially into the
Ozarks. Given storm motion that should be parallel to the boundary,
the enhanced vorticity along this zone could result in a locally
greater tornado threat. In addition, most guidance shows a
strengthening low-level jet across Oklahoma and into southern
Kansas. This may support a strong tornado threat, particularly
during the evening.
...Eastern Ohio to southern New York...
Weak to moderate instability is expected to develop across eastern
Ohio and western Pennsylvania Thursday morning with dewpoints in the
mid 60s. Moderate to strong forcing on the leading edge of a compact
mid-level jet streak should result in storm development along the
front by mid-afternoon. Strong shear should assist in storm
organization, but weak lapse rates may limit overall updraft
strength. Due to the weak to moderate instability and strong shear,
5% wind probabilities are warranted.
..Bentley.. 06/24/2026
Read more
SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0221 AM CDT Wed Jun 24 2026
Valid 261200Z - 271200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE HIGH PLAINS AND SOUTHERN KANSAS AND NORTHERN OKLAHOMA INTO
THE OZARKS....
...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe storms capable of large hail and severe wind gusts
will be possible across the High Plains and across southern Kansas
and northern Oklahoma into southern Missouri and northern Arkansas
on Friday.
...Synopsis...
A strong mid-level shortwave trough will move from the eastern
Pacific into the Northwest CONUS on Friday with the trough
continuing to deepen through the period. An elongated mid-level jet
streak will stretch from the California coast to the northern Plains
by 12Z Saturday. Surface low pressure will exist across the
Inter-Mountain West as this trough amplifies and will eventually
consolidate as a lee cyclone across the northern Plains by the end
of the period.
...High Plains...
Moderate to strong instability is forecast across the High Plains on
Friday as a dryline develops along the lee trough. Ridging should
limit overall convective coverage, but with 30 to 35 knots of
mid-level flow, isolated supercells are possible with a threat for
large hail and severe wind gusts.
...Southern Kansas and northern Oklahoma into the Ozarks...
Strong instability is forecast along a frontal boundary that will
exist from the OK/KS border into southern Missouri where dewpoints
will be in the low to mid 70s. Upper-level forcing will be weak,
with neutral to perhaps slightly rising heights. Therefore, the
strong instability and forecast soundings showing an uncapped
airmass near a frontal zone will support the potential for strong to
severe storms Friday afternoon/evening. In addition, the low-level
jet is forecast to strengthen Friday evening which may provide
additional support for storm development, even if it doesn't occur
during daytime heating.
..Bentley.. 06/24/2026
Read more
Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0342 AM CDT Wed Jun 24 2026
Valid 271200Z - 021200Z
...DISCUSSION...
...D4/Saturday - Northern Plains...
A strong trough will advance into the Northwest CONUS on Saturday
with a strong mid-level jet extending from the Great Basin to the
northern Plains. A lee cyclone will develop across eastern Wyoming
into western South Dakota. Southerly flow will strengthen and advect
low to mid 60s dewpoints northward. This will lead to strong
instability by the late afternoon across the western Dakotas. There
is still some uncertainty with the evolution of the upper-level
trough which will have some impact in the timing and location of the
severe weather threat on Saturday. At this time, have confined the
15% area to where the greatest severe weather threat appears likely
Saturday afternoon/evening, but this area may need to be refined in
future outlooks.
...Day 5 and Beyond...
Severe weather will be possible across portions of the Northern
Plains into the Upper Midwest Sunday and into next week. However,
predictability remains too low to highlight areas in this timeframe.
The presence of strong to very strong instability across a large
region with multiple shortwave troughs emerging from the primary
trough centered over the West will surely support severe weather
potential most days. However, probabilities for specific areas
cannot be added until the upper-level pattern becomes more clear.
Read more
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1248 AM CDT Wed Jun 24 2026
Valid 241200Z - 251200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SCATTERED DRY THUNDERSTORMS OVER
PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL UTAH...
...Synopsis...
...Central and Western Utah and the Interior West...
An upper-level shortwave trough entering the Great Basin will
trigger high-based showers and scattered dry thunderstorms today.
Thunderstorm activity will begin in southern Utah this morning
before spreading across the larger region as daytime heating
supports more widespread instability aided by topographic lift.
Critically dry fuels and sub-cloud dryness will at least initially
create an environment for lightning ignitions and potentially very
strong outflow winds. Precipitable water values will climb toward
1.0 inch by evening, transitioning storms from dry to a wet and dry
mix with a chance of localized wetting rains along the Interstate 15
corridor. However, gusty outflows will threaten active wildfires,
and pyrocumulus development remains highly possible with
pyrocumulonimbus not out of the question if surface heating from
fire activity can maintain momentum. Isolated dry thunderstorms with
quick storm motions of up to 30 mph and generally slightly drier
moisture profiles will also impact the Four Corners, eastern Great
Basin, Wyoming Basin, and the central Idaho and southwestern Montana
mountains.
...Northwestern Colorado, Northeastern Utah, and Southern Wyoming...
Ahead of this afternoon's incoming moisture plume, strong 45 to 50
knot mid-level flow will produce a window of elevated fire weather
conditions. Expect sustained west-southwest winds around 15 mph
paired with minimum relative humidity values down to 10 to 15
percent over dry fuels before humidity values begin increasing late
in the evening.
...Central and Eastern Nevada...
On the western flank of the aforementioned moisture plume and
coinciding with a mid-level shortwave trough, 25-35 knot mid-level
flow will be efficiently mixed down to the surface given the hot and
dry boundary layer. This will result in sustained west to southwest
winds around 15 mph paired with minimum relative humidity values
down to 10 to 15 percent.
While this sub-tropical moisture will briefly temper the severe
dryness over the next couple of days, a much larger concern exists.
Any lightning holdover ignitions from storms today and tomorrow
could rapidly expand later this week. Forecast guidance continues to
show a major, seasonally abnormal trough arriving Friday into
Saturday, bringing widespread and significant critical fire weather
conditions with southwest winds gusting above 40 mph ahead of a
strong cold front.
..Stearns.. 06/24/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1250 AM CDT Wed Jun 24 2026
Valid 251200Z - 261200Z
...Synopsis...
A sub-tropical moisture plume will continue shifting eastward across
the Interior West by Thursday, focusing both wet and dry
thunderstorm potential from southwestern WY through the Four Corners
region. Scattered to isolated high-based thunderstorms will initiate
across much of the drawn area on Day 2/Thursday afternoon. Depending
on location/elevation and antecedent conditions from the previous
day's convection, this activity will likely present as a mix of wet
and dry storms. Given a dry sub-cloud layer, supportive of
evaporation, the probability of new lightning ignitions over still
receptive fuels will remain at least moderate - especially in areas
that receive less or no rainfall from Day 1/Wednesday.
Simultaneously, farther west, an intensifying trough over the West
will interact with what's left of the ridge over the southwest to
bring dry southwest flow to the western Great Basin. This region
will see dry flow cut underneath the deeper Pacific moisture,
leading to Elevated fire weather conditions where winds will be
southwest to westerly at 15-20 mph amid minimum RHs ranging from
10-20 percent.
While this sub-tropical moisture will briefly temper the severe
dryness over the next couple of days, a much larger concern exists.
Any lightning holdover ignitions from storms today and tomorrow
could rapidly expand later this week. Forecast guidance continues to
show a major, seasonally abnormal trough arriving Friday into
Saturday, bringing widespread and significant critical fire weather
conditions with southwest winds gusting above 40 mph ahead of a
strong cold front.
..Stearns.. 06/24/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
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