RSS Mesoscale Discussions from Storm Prediction Center
No watches are valid as of Tue Feb 17 05:38:02 UTC 2026.
No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Tue Feb 17 05:38:02 UTC 2026.
SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0639 PM CST Mon Feb 16 2026
Valid 170100Z - 171200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Severe storm are not forecast through Tuesday morning. Scattered
storms are still expected tonight from southwest Oregon into
northern California late tonight, with isolated activity into
southern California.
...West Coast...
A shortwave trough and cold front will continue moving out of
southern CA and into parts of AZ and UT and western CO through the
night. Isolated convective showers and a few lightning flashes will
remain possible over southern CA through tonight due to cold
temperatures aloft and as secondary disturbance rotates through the
base of the trough.
To the north, another large upper trough with very cold temperatures
aloft will dive southeastward off the WA/OR coasts, with increasing
shoreline convergence with an attendant cold front. The 00Z UIL
sounding shows the very cold temperatures and steep lapse rates
through a deep layer, despite cool surface temperatures, with
isolated lightning offshore at this time. Later tonight, showers and
a few thunderstorms may impact parts of western OR and northern CA,
but severe weather is not expected.
..Jewell.. 02/17/2026
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SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1134 PM CST Mon Feb 16 2026
Valid 171200Z - 181200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are possible across Pacific coastal areas much of
California Tuesday, and across parts of the mid Missouri Valley into
the Upper Midwest late. The risk for severe storms appears low.
...Pacific Coastal States...
An upper low will drop south toward the coastal Pacific Northwest
today as a strong upper speed max noses into central CA by 00Z. This
feature will translate southward overnight and into southern CA by
12Z Wed. North of the upper jet, very cold temperatures aloft will
exist which will result in a few hundred J/kg SBCAPE despite cool
surface conditions. While favorable shear profiles will develop
southward through the central valleys, surface temperatures will
largely be in the 40s to perhaps lower 50s F, with generally limited
heating. Very small hail cannot be ruled out in the strongest
convection given long hodographs and such cold temperatures aloft,
but severe storms are not currently forecast.
...Mid MO Valley / Upper Midwest...
A leading shortwave trough will move into the Plains today, with a
strong speed max aloft from NM into KS by 00Z. The strongest cooling
aloft and lift will occur from NE into the Dakotas, and into western
MN/IA be evening. Low pressure will develop into SD during the
afternoon, with a cold front pushing toward the mid MO Valley. While
surface heating as well as boundary-layer mixing will steepen
low-level lapse rates in the veered flow, it appears capping may
hold atop the plume of 40s F dewpoints ahead of the wind shift. An
isolated thunderstorm cannot totally be ruled out through 00Z, but a
greater chance will exist as minimal elevated instability develops
near the nose of the 850 mb jet with lift focused across MN and WI.
Instability does not appear strong enough to support severe hail
with this elevated activity.
..Jewell/Squitieri.. 02/17/2026
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