SPC - No watches are valid as of Wed Feb 18 04:11:02 UTC 2026

No watches are valid as of Wed Feb 18 04:11:02 UTC 2026.

SPC MD 94

MD 0094 CONCERNING WINTER MIXED PRECIPITATION FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA INTO NORTHERN MINNESOTA

Mesoscale Discussion 0094
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1008 PM CST Tue Feb 17 2026

Areas affected...portions of northeast North Dakota into northern
Minnesota

Concerning...Winter mixed precipitation 

Valid 180408Z - 180815Z

SUMMARY...A wintry mix should continue to develop ahead of an
approaching precipitation band near the Canadian border. The best
chance for heavy snow (perhaps 1 inch/hour rates) will be across far
northeastern ND and northeastern MN tonight, especially after 06Z.

DISCUSSION...A 986 mb surface low over eastern SD should continue to
drift northward toward the Upper MS Valley and deepen further with
the eastward progression of a negatively tilted mid-level trough. As
this occurs, continued 850-700 mb warm air/moisture advection will
continue to fortify a primarily zonal arching band of mixed
precipitation, which should continue to steadily lift northward with
time. KMVX dual-polarimetric radar data depicts a likely mix of snow
and sleet just above the surface within the core of the
precipitation band. Meanwhile, surface observations depict snow as
the main precipitation type along the northern periphery of the
band. Strong easterly Surface-850 mb cold-air advection is underway
across northeastern MN, and this should support dynamic cooling of
the column along and just south of the Canadian border through
tonight. Furthermore, wet-bulb temperatures are at or below the
freezing mark to the south of 0C observed temperatures, suggesting
that latent cooling from precipitation may also contribute to
low-level tropospheric cooling. 

Cold-air advection is and should remain strongest across
northeastern MN, where the best chance for heavy snow exists. Heavy
snow may also develop across portions of far northeastern ND. In
both areas, 1 inch/hr snowfall rates may occur, especially after 06Z
based on mesoanalysis/HRRR trends, which is in rough agreement with
00Z HREF ensemble probabilities.

..Squitieri.. 02/18/2026

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DLH...FGF...BIS...

LAT...LON   49059629 49009503 48829452 48709390 48669317 48569264
            48289169 48239082 48118989 48048952 47898963 47609052
            47149124 46909174 47009252 47539438 47989626 48149868
            48210000 48450026 48710030 48910026 49019994 49059942
            49049833 49059629 

SPC MD 93

MD 0093 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COASTLINE

Mesoscale Discussion 0093
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0851 PM CST Tue Feb 17 2026

Areas affected...portions of the southern California Coastline

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 180251Z - 180545Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...A few damaging convective gusts may accompany an
approaching band of thunderstorms over the next few hours. A severe
gust cannot be ruled out.

DISCUSSION...A pronounced mid-level trough is approaching the CA
coastline, and is accompanied by a 100+ kt mid-level jet streak,
which is poised to overspread southern CA through early tonight. A
convective band over coastal portions of San Luis Obispo County (and
just offshore) is progressing southeast and is intensifying (per
latest lightning trends), likely due in part to increased forcing
for ascent. Latest mesoanalysis depicts very scant buoyancy, with
SBCAPE likely only exceeding 250 J/kg in a few spots, and given the
cool maritime airmass and lack of insolation, an appreciable
increase in buoyancy is not expected. Nonetheless, increasing
tropospheric flow, driven by the approaching upper
trough/aforementioned jet streak, will provide a favorable ambient
wind field to be mechanically transported downward closer to the
surface by the intensifying line. As such, isolated strong wind
gusts, capable of at least downing a few trees, is likely this
evening and early overnight. A severe gust cannot be ruled out with
stronger portions of the line, especially with favorable interaction
with the higher terrain.

..Squitieri/Hart.. 02/18/2026

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...HNX...LOX...

LAT...LON   35532113 35522030 35081899 34561833 34321823 34091829
            33941853 33861874 33991906 34151936 34271976 34332012
            34422048 34532067 35012083 35252099 35532113 

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH

SPC MD 92

MD 0092 CONCERNING BLIZZARD FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHEASTERN MONTANA
        

Mesoscale Discussion 0092
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0748 PM CST Tue Feb 17 2026

Areas affected...portions of northeastern Montana

Concerning...Blizzard 

Valid 180148Z - 180445Z

SUMMARY...At least brief bouts of blizzard conditions are possible
over the next few hours. Winds may sustain over 35 mph periodically,
and overlap with at least moderate snow, potentially resulting in
bouts of reduced visibility.

DISCUSSION...Surface troughing continues to progress eastward across
the northern Plains, supporting very strong surface-850 mb cold-air
advection across portions of northeast Montana. Amid this cold-air
advection is a pronounced band of snow, with at least moderate
snowfall rates likely occurring given the presence of a 1-km deep,
saturated dendritic growth zone per latest mesoanalysis and RAP
forecast soundings. Furthermore, latest mesoanalysis trends also
depict increasing flow in the 925-850 mb layer, perhaps exceeding 50
kts at times. When also considering strong gradient surface flow
already present in the region, any form of downward momentum
transport could support wind fields meeting blizzard criteria, at
least on a spotty basis. These winds may coincide with at least
moderate snowfall rates, leading to reduced visibility. 

Potential blizzard conditions are expected to persist for at least
the next 3-4 hours. These conditions may first develop closer to the
Glasgow area and approach the ND border later.

..Squitieri.. 02/18/2026

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...GGW...

LAT...LON   48940759 49120609 49110497 48820431 48230422 47700437
            47330485 47190557 47280611 47590680 48160741 48940759 


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SPC Feb 18, 2026 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
      
Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0654 PM CST Tue Feb 17 2026

Valid 180100Z - 181200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong thunderstorms will be possible across parts of
coastal Southern California through tonight.

...Discussion...
Thunderstorm activity continues across portions of Southern
California this evening as mid-level flow increases with the
approaching upper-level low. Thunderstorm activity is expected to
continue overnight, with potential for occasional stronger bands
that may produce some instances of damaging wind. A low tornado risk
was maintained with this outlook, owing to the strong deep layer
flow progged to increase overnight.

High-based convection across far eastern Nebraska has showed signs
of weakening over the last hour, with a downward trend in lightning.
Guidance shows little in the way of additional development through
the rest of the evening. The Marginal Risk across this region was
removed with this outlook.

..Thornton.. 02/18/2026


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