RSS Mesoscale Discussions from Storm Prediction Center
No watches are valid as of Wed Jan 14 14:54:02 UTC 2026.
No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Wed Jan 14 14:54:02 UTC 2026.
SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0637 AM CST Wed Jan 14 2026
Valid 141300Z - 151200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated thunderstorms are possible across south Florida and the
Keys today.
Limited low-level moisture and generally stable conditions will
preclude thunderstorms over most of the CONUS today and tonight.
The one exception will be over portions of south FL, beneath the
subtropical jet and in a region of mid 60s dewpoints. The risk
along the southeast coast will be this morning through early
afternoon, with another period of thunderstorm potential along the
southwest coast tonight. No severe storms are anticipated.
..Hart/Kerr.. 01/14/2026
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SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0851 AM CST Wed Jan 14 2026
Valid 141700Z - 151200Z
No changes to the ongoing forecast.
..Wendt.. 01/14/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0208 AM CST Wed Jan 14 2026/
...Synopsis...
A broad upper trough over the eastern half of the US will rapidly
intensify today and tonight as it merges with a weak upper low over
the southern US. Strong northerly flow aloft will develop as a
surface old front moves southward over the Plains and central US.
Behind the front, strong north/northwesterly winds are likely over
parts of the Plains and eventually the Southeast. This, and
persistent dry conditions may support some elevated fire-weather
potential.
...Central TX...
As strong troughing deepens over the eastern US, a dry cold front
will sweep into the Southern Plains and south TX. Along and behind
the front, a strong surface pressure gradient will drive north winds
of 20-30 mph over much of the southern and central Plains. Although
RH reductions will be limited to around 30% with cooler temperatures
advecting southward, the strong winds and dry fine fuels should
still support an elevated fire risk across central TX.
Surface winds will slacken some with southward extent as the primary
front arrives later in the diurnal cycle across the Rio Grande
Valley and South TX. Drier surface conditions will likely support
afternoon RH minimums near 20-25%. While the arrival of the stronger
northerly winds will be ill timed, the lower RH and drier fuels
should also support some fire-weather risk into South TX through the
afternoon and first part of the evening. The Elevated area was
expanded to the southern border for a conditional risk for Elevated
conditions.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
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