RSS Mesoscale Discussions from Storm Prediction Center
No watches are valid as of Wed Jan 14 13:13:02 UTC 2026.
No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Wed Jan 14 13:13:02 UTC 2026.
SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0637 AM CST Wed Jan 14 2026
Valid 141300Z - 151200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated thunderstorms are possible across south Florida and the
Keys today.
Limited low-level moisture and generally stable conditions will
preclude thunderstorms over most of the CONUS today and tonight.
The one exception will be over portions of south FL, beneath the
subtropical jet and in a region of mid 60s dewpoints. The risk
along the southeast coast will be this morning through early
afternoon, with another period of thunderstorm potential along the
southwest coast tonight. No severe storms are anticipated.
..Hart/Kerr.. 01/14/2026
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Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0330 AM CST Wed Jan 14 2026
Valid 171200Z - 221200Z
...DISCUSSION...
Medium-range guidance generally indicates that amplified mid-level
troughing, evolving by late week to the east of the Rockies, will be
maintained through this coming weekend, before a fairly prominent
ridge near and offshore of the Pacific Northwest/British Columbia
coast weakens and redevelops to the west/northwest. However, even
as flow trends less amplified, it appears that a broadly confluent
westerly to northwesterly regime to the east of the Rockies may
continue to support a series of southeastward developing cold
surface ridges. Toward the middle of next week, this may become
less of an influence across the southwestern into western Gulf
Basin, beneath a belt of strengthening mid/upper westerlies
emanating from the subtropical eastern Pacific. It is possible that
low-level moistening and forcing for ascent could become supportive
of sufficient destabilization for thunderstorm development by
Tuesday/Wednesday across the northwestern Gulf. However, it is not
yet clear that this will impact areas inland of the Gulf coast, or
become particularly strong.
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