RSS Mesoscale Discussions from Storm Prediction Center
No watches are valid as of Sun Jun 28 20:46:02 UTC 2026.
MD 1368 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR THE TEXAS PANHANDLE INTO THE PERMIAN BASIN AND FAR SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO
Mesoscale Discussion 1368
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0220 PM CDT Sun Jun 28 2026
Areas affected...the Texas Panhandle into the Permian Basin and far
Southeast New Mexico
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 281920Z - 282145Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent
SUMMARY...Isolated severe wind gusts appear possible this afternoon
with pulse-type thunderstorms. The limited nature of the threat is
expected to preclude a watch.
DISCUSSION...Recent visible satellite shows a growing cumulus field
across the TX South Plains, west-southwest of Lubbock. That
convection appears to be developing along the western edge of
stronger capping and within a deeply mixed boundary layer with
surface temperatures of around 100 F. Stronger instability resides
to the east with objective analysis indicating MLCAPE as high as
1500-2500 J/kg from the eastern TX Panhandle into the Low Rolling
Plains.
Continued daytime heating should allow for further convective
inhibition reduction from the west, which in turn will allow the
deepening convection to spread east into a progressively more
unstable environment. Vertical shear is expected to remain
relatively weak, which should limit the potential for organized
storm modes. Nonetheless, the presence of a moderately unstable
environment featuring a relatively deep, inverted-v boundary layer
will be supportive of isolated severe wind gusts with pulse-type
storms.
..Mead/Guyer.. 06/28/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...LUB...AMA...MAF...ABQ...
LAT...LON 33310325 34260276 35280213 36500107 36470042 35980008
33810125 32660200 32100262 32710342 33310325
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
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SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1131 AM CDT Sun Jun 28 2026
Valid 281630Z - 291200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS...CAROLINAS...AND A PART OF THE MIDWEST...
...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are expected mainly tonight across the Dakotas.
Large to very large hail and severe winds are the primary hazards.
Thunderstorms capable of scattered wind damage are possible in parts
of the Carolinas.
...Dakotas/northern Plains...
A belt of south-southwesterly mid-level flow near 50 kt will be
maintained from Colorado to the Dakotas, east of the broad closed
low over the northern Great Basin/Rockies. A separate lee cyclone
is expected to form in the vicinity of northeast Colorado this
afternoon and then progress northeastward across Nebraska/South
Dakota overnight.
A few storms will be possible in North Dakota during the afternoon
with perhaps an isolated severe risk developing, but the primary
regional severe risk is expected tonight. Much of the severe threat
will likely focus after dark immediately north of the lee cyclone
into South Dakota as low-level moisture steadily spreads
west-northwestward. This increasing moisture and forcing for ascent
preceding the surface cyclone (and subtle embedded speed maxima
aloft) will likely support thunderstorm development overnight across
western South Dakota into southern North Dakota. The environment
will favor supercells, which will tend to be elevated, and small
thunderstorm clusters capable of large to very large hail and severe
wind gusts.
...Upper Mississippi Valley...
A bowing cluster has weakened and tended to grow downscale this
morning but otherwise persists across eastern Iowa at midday. Some
redevelopment/re-intensification could occur on the cluster's
southern periphery near a warm front. However, this is highly
uncertain given the increasing mid-level capping/EML advection the
remainder of the night.
Later tonight, a zone of low-level warm advection will be focused
across Wisconsin along the northeast edge of the warm elevated mixed
layer. Sufficient moistening above the surface and large CAPE will
favor the potential for at least isolated large hail/strong gusts
with mostly elevated storms tonight.
...Carolinas and far southern Virginia this afternoon/evening...
A convectively augmented mid-level disturbance over the southern
Appalachians will move southeastward into the Piedmont by this
afternoon. An airmass sampled by area 12 UTC raobs (PW near 2
inches) will heat/destabilize to the south of a patch of clouds that
are more prevalent over western North Carolina. Steepening low-level
lapse rates and a belt of slightly stronger westerly 3-6 km flow (30
kt) may act to loosely organize cold pools of developing
thunderstorm clusters. Isolated to scattered wind damage (50-60 mph
gusts) will be the primary hazard with the more intense water-loaded
thunderstorm cores until around sunset.
...West Texas late this afternoon/evening...
Strong surface heating and deep mixing along a sharpening dryline
will allow high-based thunderstorm development from late afternoon
through late evening. Flow aloft will be weak, but inverted-V
profiles will yield isolated severe outflow gusts of 60-75 mph.
..Guyer/Supinie.. 06/28/2026
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SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0259 PM CDT Sun Jun 28 2026
Valid 282000Z - 291200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND THE CAROLINAS...
...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are expected mainly tonight across the Dakotas.
Large to very large hail and severe winds are the primary hazards.
Thunderstorms capable of scattered wind damage are possible in parts
of the Carolinas.
...20Z Update...
The SLGT risk in eastern IA was removed, given recent convective
trends and displacement from the parent/weakening MCV. The MRGL risk
in the wake of this activity was also trimmed in parts of the
Midwest, where robust capping at the base of the EML will limit
thunderstorm/severe potential.
Farther west, the SLGT risk in the northern Plains was expanded
slightly southwestward in southwest SD, where steepening midlevel
lapse rates and around 60 kt of effective shear will promote large
hail with intensifying elevated supercells overnight.
..Weinman.. 06/28/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1131 AM CDT Sun Jun 28 2026/
...Dakotas/northern Plains...
A belt of south-southwesterly mid-level flow near 50 kt will be
maintained from Colorado to the Dakotas, east of the broad closed
low over the northern Great Basin/Rockies. A separate lee cyclone
is expected to form in the vicinity of northeast Colorado this
afternoon and then progress northeastward across Nebraska/South
Dakota overnight.
A few storms will be possible in North Dakota during the afternoon
with perhaps an isolated severe risk developing, but the primary
regional severe risk is expected tonight. Much of the severe threat
will likely focus after dark immediately north of the lee cyclone
into South Dakota as low-level moisture steadily spreads
west-northwestward. This increasing moisture and forcing for ascent
preceding the surface cyclone (and subtle embedded speed maxima
aloft) will likely support thunderstorm development overnight across
western South Dakota into southern North Dakota. The environment
will favor supercells, which will tend to be elevated, and small
thunderstorm clusters capable of large to very large hail and severe
wind gusts.
...Upper Mississippi Valley...
A bowing cluster has weakened and tended to grow downscale this
morning but otherwise persists across eastern Iowa at midday. Some
redevelopment/re-intensification could occur on the cluster's
southern periphery near a warm front. However, this is highly
uncertain given the increasing mid-level capping/EML advection the
remainder of the night.
Later tonight, a zone of low-level warm advection will be focused
across Wisconsin along the northeast edge of the warm elevated mixed
layer. Sufficient moistening above the surface and large CAPE will
favor the potential for at least isolated large hail/strong gusts
with mostly elevated storms tonight.
...Carolinas and far southern Virginia this afternoon/evening...
A convectively augmented mid-level disturbance over the southern
Appalachians will move southeastward into the Piedmont by this
afternoon. An airmass sampled by area 12 UTC raobs (PW near 2
inches) will heat/destabilize to the south of a patch of clouds that
are more prevalent over western North Carolina. Steepening low-level
lapse rates and a belt of slightly stronger westerly 3-6 km flow (30
kt) may act to loosely organize cold pools of developing
thunderstorm clusters. Isolated to scattered wind damage (50-60 mph
gusts) will be the primary hazard with the more intense water-loaded
thunderstorm cores until around sunset.
...West Texas late this afternoon/evening...
Strong surface heating and deep mixing along a sharpening dryline
will allow high-based thunderstorm development from late afternoon
through late evening. Flow aloft will be weak, but inverted-V
profiles will yield isolated severe outflow gusts of 60-75 mph.
Read more
SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1158 AM CDT Sun Jun 28 2026
Valid 291200Z - 301200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST...
...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are possible from parts of the central/northern
Plains into the Upper Midwest on Monday. Large hail and severe winds
are the primary concerns, though a couple of tornadoes may also
occur.
...Synopsis...
An upper low and attendant shortwave trough, initially over the
northern Rockies, will eject east/northeast across the northern
Plains on Monday. This will bring a belt of enhanced mid/upper
south/southwesterly flow across parts of the northern/central Plains
to the Upper Midwest. At the surface, low pressure will deepen over
SD and lift north/northeast through evening. A trailing cold
front/dryline will move across the Dakotas and portions of NE after
00z while a warm front lifts northward across parts of eastern ND
and northern MN through the day. A secondary lee surface low will
develop over the central High Plains, with a dryline extending
south/southwest across western KS into southwest TX.
...Dakotas/Mid-MO Valley/Upper Midwest...
Uncertainty over mesoscale details persists this forecast cycle,
though overall model guidance continues to show better agreement.
Convection appears likely to be ongoing Monday morning across the
central Dakotas near the deepening surface low and northward
extending frontal occlusion. This activity may be elevated, but
supercell wind profiles are evident in forecast soundings with
elongated/straight hodographs noted amid 50+ kt effective shear
magnitudes. A plume of steep midlevel lapse rates will be in place
across the region and elevated convection will pose a risk for large
to very large hail early in the day as storms move northward.
A very moist and unstable airmass will reside across the region,
with strong to extreme instability depicted in forecast guidance.
Convective evolution is uncertain. The extent of morning convection
could augment the northward extent of the richer boundary layer
moisture and instability. Guidance also varies in regards to the
evolution of the surface low, with some guidance being slower and
other solutions much faster. Nevertheless, the surface low/triple
point, warm front, and surface tough/cold front will be areas for
concern for convective development during the day and into the
afternoon. If supercells can develop and be surface-based near the
warm front, an all-hazards severe risk is evident given the very
favorable thermodynamic and kinematic parameter space. While initial
supercells are possible during the evening along the cold front from
the Mid-MO Valley into southern MN, boundary-parallel deep-layer
flow and an intensifying low-level jet could result in rapid upscale
growth into a bowing segment during the nighttime hours. This could
result in an increase in damaging wind potential if nighttime
convection can be near-surface based.
...KS/OK/TX...
Isolated to scattered high-based thunderstorms are likely during the
evening along the dryline. Instability and vertical shear will be
modest, limiting longevity of stronger updrafts. Nevertheless, a
deeply mixed boundary layer with inverted-v sub-cloud thermodynamic
profiles could support strong outflow gusts. Overall severe
potential appears limited, precluding marginal probabilities at this
time.
...Southeast...
Moderate instability will develop amid a seasonally moist airmass
near the Savannah River into GA Monday afternoon/early evening. A
backdoor/wedge front is expected to push south/southwest across SC
and may contribute to isolated to scattered thunderstorm development
by peak heating within a deep-layer northwesterly flow regime.
Vertical shear will be weak, but occasional sub-severe gusty
outflows will be possible, mainly across central/southern GA.
..Leitman.. 06/28/2026
Read more
SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0209 PM CDT Sun Jun 28 2026
Valid 301200Z - 011200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE CENTRAL
HIGH PLAINS TO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES...AND ACROSS PARTS OF THE
NORTHEAST...
...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms will be possible from parts of the central High
Plains into the Upper Midwest, and across parts of the Northeast on
Tuesday.
...Mid-MO Valley to Upper Great Lakes...
A compact upper low and attendant shortwave trough will be located
over the Canadian Prairies into the Upper Midwest Tuesday morning.
This system will progress east/northeast through the day. While
large-scale ascent will increasing be focused north of the
international border, stronger southwesterly deep-layer flow will
persist for most of the day before weakening by evening. At the
surface, a stalled surface front will be oriented from northeast MN
into southeast SD/northern NE. Convection may be ongoing near this
boundary somewhere in MN or perhaps northern WI/Michigan Upper
Peninsula vicinity. A very moist airmass will be in place and strong
to extreme instability is forecast through the day across portions
of the region. If organized storms can develop, a risk for damaging
winds and hail is possible - particularly if upscale development
into a bowing segment occurs. Overall the forecast remains uncertain
and any corridors of greater severe potential will be heavily
influenced by remnant convection from the Day 2/Monday period and
mesoscale impacts thereof.
...CO/KS/NE/SD...
An upper shortwave impulse initially over the Great Basin early
Tuesday will eject eastward across the central Rockies and into the
adjacent High Plains during the evening/overnight hours. As this
occurs, a lee surface low will develop. Increasing
south/southeasterly low-level flow will transport modest boundary
layer moisture north and west. Isolated storms may develop near the
lee low and surface trough across eastern CO into western KS and
northeastward across western NE into southern SD along the remnant
cold front/effective warm front extending west to east near the
NE/SD border. Damaging winds and hail are possible with this
activity, though storm coverage and mesoscale details remain
uncertain.
...Northeast...
Most forecast guidance suggest storms will develop southeast across
the region from Canada within a mid/upper-level northwesterly flow
regime on the eastern periphery of an upper ridge. A very moist
airmass will support a corridor of moderate to strong instability,
though the north and eastward extent of stronger instability is
uncertain. Forecast soundings indicated 25-35 kt effective shear
magnitudes, and isolated supercells will be possible. If sufficient
clustering or outflow consolidation occurs, a forward propagating
band of storms also is possible. Damaging wind gusts will be the
primary hazard, though isolated hail or even a tornado also will be
possible depending on storm mode and evolution. If confidence
increases in a corridor of greater severe potential higher
probabilities may be needed in subsequent outlooks.
..Leitman.. 06/28/2026
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SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1146 AM CDT Sun Jun 28 2026
Valid 281700Z - 291200Z
...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTHEASTERN
UTAH...CENTRAL-SOUTHWESTERN COLORADO...AND FAR NORTHEASTERN ARIZONA
INTO EXTREME NORTHWESTERN NEW MEXICO...
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA...SOUTHEASTERN
UTAH...WESTERN/SOUTHWESTERN COLORADO...AND NORTHWESTERN NEW
MEXICO...
***Dangerous fire weather conditions are expected across portions of
the West Slope and Colorado Plateau this afternoon.***
...Afternoon Update...
A targeted Extremely Critical fire weather risk area was introduced
to the Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook. High resolution guidance depicts
a combination of sustained southwesterly 25-35 mph winds and 5-10%
RH to overlap exceptionally dry fuels and ongoing wildfires for
several hours this afternoon. In addition, a cold front will
gradually sag southward towards the Four Corners region this
evening, pushing through west-central CO and southeastern UT between
23-03z. A wind shift is expected behind the front, transitioning
broad southwesterly winds to north-northwesterly with sustained
winds of 10-15 mph (gusts over 20 mph), lasting for a few hours
before gradually diminishing overnight. RH will also increase behind
the front, bringing some relief in the form of humidity recoveries
to parts of eastern UT and western CO.
Extreme caution should be taken across the fire weather risk areas
this afternoon, as the previously mentioned weather conditions are
very conducive to rapid spread/fire growth on existing wildfires and
new ignitions. The rest of the forecast remains on track, see the
previous discussion for more information.
..Elizalde-Garcia.. 06/28/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0136 AM CDT Sun Jun 28 2026/
...Synopsis...
A longwave, upper-level trough will persist over the Intermountain
West today, with one embedded shortwave remaining relatively
stationary across the northern High Plains and a second shortwave
trough pivoting southeastward through Nevada and portions of the
Great Basin. Concurrently, an associated mid-level jet will continue
to be oriented across the Four Corners region while a surface cold
front remains relatively stationary along the western edge of the
Colorado Plateau. This will promote a third consecutive day of
enhanced dry/breezy conditions across portions of the eastern Great
Basin and Southwest today.
...Four Corners region...
A corridor of sustained southwesterly surface winds of 20-25+ mph
(with gusts of 35-40+ mph possible) and minimum RH values of 5-15%
is forecast this afternoon from northern Arizona into southeastern
Utah, western/southwestern Colorado, and northwestern New Mexico.
With this multi-day period of dry/breezy conditions exacerbating
fuel dryness/receptiveness (ERCs noted in the 80-95+ percentiles)
and the anticipation for poor overnight relative humidity recoveries
(RHs noted to be lingering at or below 15-25% across portions of the
Four Corners region as of 0530 UTC), several hours of critical fire
weather conditions (with the potential for localized extremely
critical conditions) are expected this afternoon across much of the
Four Corners region and Colorado Plateau. A broader area of elevated
fire weather concerns is also forecast across adjacent areas of the
Great Basin/Southwest where winds of 15-25 mph will overlap low RH
of 10-20%. Only minor adjustments were made to the drawn areas with
this update to reflect the latest guidance.
Recent guidance also suggests that the shortwave trough rotating
through the base of the longer wavelength troughing will contribute
to a southward surge of the cold front closer to the Four Corners
region later tonight. For areas that experience this frontal
passage, some RH recovery and a shift to northerly/northwesterly
winds can be expected (with a couple hour period of sustained 10-20
mph winds possible).
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0147 PM CDT Sun Jun 28 2026
Valid 291200Z - 301200Z
...Afternoon Update...
No changes were made to the Elevated fire weather outlook area.
Locally critical fire weather conditions may emerge across the
higher terrain of the central Colorado Rockies on Day 2/Monday,
especially within the San Luis Valley where RH of 15% or less will
combine with sustained west-southwesterly winds of 20-30 mph. This
region did have sporadic areas of appreciable rainfall last week;
however, several preceding days of hot, dry, and windy conditions
have preconditioned fuels to become increasingly more receptive
(90-99th percentile ERCs). The rest of the forecast remains on
track, see the previous discussion for more information.
..Elizalde-Garcia.. 06/28/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0138 AM CDT Sun Jun 28 2026/
...Synopsis...
Longwave upper troughing will continue to remain positioned across
the Intermountain West on D2/Monday. An embedded, mid-level
shortwave trough will eject northeastward across the northern High
Plains, with the strongest mid-level flow shifting northeastward in
tandem with this feature. A second mid-level shortwave will
simultaneously pivot southeastward into the Southwest. Combined with
a persistent dry air mass and lingering enhanced mid-level flow,
this will continue to support expansive fire weather concerns across
portions of the Great Basin and Southwest.
...Southwest/Four Corners region...
Enhanced southwesterly, mid-level flow will continue to persist
across portions of the Southwest and Four Corners region on Monday
ahead of an approaching shortwave trough forecast to pivot
southeastward into southern California Monday afternoon. This will
support sustained southwesterly surface winds of 15-20 mph amid very
low RH values of 10-15%. Several days of antecedent dry, windy
conditions will continue to exacerbate fuel dryness/receptiveness
(with ERCs in the 80th to 95th percentiles or greater across much of
the region). This will promote elevated to locally critical fire
weather concerns across much of Arizona, eastern Utah, western
Colorado, western New Mexico, and portions of southern Wyoming.
Occasional wind gusts of 30+ mph will also be possible, primarily
across portions of western/central Colorado where the strongest
mid-level flow is forecast to overlap a deep, well-mixed boundary
layer. Minor adjustments were made with this outlook cycle to
reflect the latest guidance.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
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