RSS Mesoscale Discussions from Storm Prediction Center
WW 98 SEVERE TSTM KS MO NE 092210Z - 100400Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 98
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
510 PM CDT Thu Apr 9 2026
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of
Southwest into Central and Northeast Kansas
Northwest Missouri
Southeast Nebraska
* Effective this Thursday afternoon and evening from 510 PM until
1100 PM CDT.
* Primary threats include...
Scattered damaging winds and isolated significant gusts to 75
mph possible
Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2.5
inches in diameter possible
A tornado or two possible
SUMMARY...Scattered severe thunderstorms are forecast to develop
early this evening. The stronger thunderstorms will likely acquire
supercellular characteristics, mainly across northern portions of
Kansas. Large to very large hail is possible with the stronger
updrafts. A brief period for a tornado is possible this evening
mainly across northern Kansas where supercells will be the preferred
storm type through early evening. Severe gusts 60 to 75 mph are
possible with high-based thunderstorms over southwest Kansas
northeastward to where an eventual cluster of thunderstorms is
likely to develop by mid to late evening.
The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 55
statute miles north and south of a line from 40 miles north
northeast of Saint Joseph MO to 25 miles west northwest of Dodge
City KS. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated
watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU8).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.
&&
AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
2.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 65 knots. A
few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 450. Mean storm motion vector
25015.
...Smith
Read more
WW 0098 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 98
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NNE LBL
TO 15 NE DDC TO 35 NNW RSL.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0370
..CHALMERS..04/09/26
ATTN...WFO...EAX...ICT...TOP...DDC...GID...OAX...
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 98
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
KSC005-009-013-025-027-029-041-043-047-053-057-061-085-087-089-
097-105-113-117-119-123-131-141-143-145-149-157-159-161-165-167-
169-185-201-100040-
KS
. KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ATCHISON BARTON BROWN
CLARK CLAY CLOUD
DICKINSON DONIPHAN EDWARDS
ELLSWORTH FORD GEARY
JACKSON JEFFERSON JEWELL
KIOWA LINCOLN MCPHERSON
MARSHALL MEADE MITCHELL
NEMAHA OSBORNE OTTAWA
PAWNEE POTTAWATOMIE REPUBLIC
RICE RILEY RUSH
RUSSELL SALINE STAFFORD
WASHINGTON
MOC003-005-021-087-147-100040-
Read more
MD 0371 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 98... FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN AND CENTRAL KANSAS
Mesoscale Discussion 0371
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0638 PM CDT Thu Apr 09 2026
Areas affected...portions of southwestern and central Kansas
Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 98...
Valid 092338Z - 100115Z
The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 98
continues.
SUMMARY...Ongoing thunderstorms will continue to bring a risk for
severe hazards across the southwestern portions of Severe
Thunderstorm Watch 98 over the next 2-3 hours. Severe wind gusts are
the primary threat, with large hail also possible in central Kansas.
DISCUSSION...Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms have
developed along/ahead of a dryline analyzed just west/northwest of
Dodge City, Kansas. Latest mesoanalysis depicts surface temperatures
in the low-80s F with dewpoints in the upper 40s, which is
contributing to a deep, well-mixed boundary layer across the region.
High LCLs (~3 km AGL), dry sub-cloud layers with steep low-level
lapse rates, and DCAPE exceeding 1000 J/kg will continue to support
the potential for severe wind gusts to 55-60 kts, especially with
any stronger storm clusters that can become better organized. Steep
mid-level lapse rates (8-9 C/km per latest mesoanalysis) and
supercell wind profiles (evident in the DDC VAD profiles) will also
support a threat for large hail with stronger, more sustained
convection. A gradual increase in low-level stabilization owing to
nocturnal cooling is then expected to yield a decreasing severe
threat after the next 2-3 hours.
..Chalmers.. 04/09/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...TOP...ICT...OUN...DDC...
LAT...LON 38389768 37869819 37389869 37059932 36999969 37030033
37450052 37960006 38599948 38919906 39009863 39019841
38999793 38839759 38389768
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN
Read more
MD 0370 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 98... FOR FAR SOUTHERN NEBRASKA AND PORTIONS OF NORTHERN KANSAS
Mesoscale Discussion 0370
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0633 PM CDT Thu Apr 09 2026
Areas affected...Far southern Nebraska and portions of northern
Kansas
Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 98...
Valid 092333Z - 100130Z
The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 98
continues.
SUMMARY...The potential for severe hail and wind will continue to
increase across north-central to northeast Kansas over the next
couple of hours as thunderstorm coverage increases and clustering
occurs.
DISCUSSION...Latest GOES IR and radar trends across far northern KS
and along the KS/NE border show an uptick in thunderstorm coverage
amid a localized increase in low-level ascent driven by a
combination of strengthening isentropic ascent (associated with a
modest uptick in 0-3 km southerly winds per regional VWPs) and
forcing along a localized southward surge of a frontal boundary
(noted in KUEX reflectivity). More isolated developing supercells
are also noted to the north of I-70, though somewhat weaker ascent
away from the mesoscale boundaries has resulted in a more gradual
intensification thus far.
Regardless, based on recent RAP forecast soundings modified by local
surface observations, MLCAPE values to the south of the primary
synoptic boundary are likely between 1500-2000 J/kg downstream of
the developing cells/clusters. With effective bulk shear values
ranging 35-40 knots, the maintenance of discrete and semi-discrete
supercells appears likely over the next hour or so with an attendant
threat for severe hail. Hail stones between 1.5 and 1.75 inches in
diameter have been recently noted with some of this activity, but
the thermodynamic and kinematic environment appears supportive of
hail up to 2 to 2.5 inches as along as discrete storm modes can be
maintained.
With time, eastward storm propagation and strengthening ascent at
the terminus of an increasing low-level jet will promote additional
thunderstorm development. High cloud bases near 2 km atop a somewhat
deep/dry boundary layer are supporting strong downbursts per
regional velocity data and live web cams. This trend suggests that
convective outflows may be fairly widespread, and coupled with
increasing ascent/storm coverage, will likely result in clustering
and an increasing wind threat heading into the late evening hours
downstream across northeast KS.
..Moore.. 04/09/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...OAX...TOP...ICT...GID...
LAT...LON 38899849 39009874 39279880 39869869 40049856 40149823
40179583 39989557 39699557 39269578 38999609 38979655
38859817 38899849
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN
Read more
SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0243 PM CDT Thu Apr 09 2026
Valid 092000Z - 101200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST KANSAS INTO SOUTHERN NEBRASKA AND FAR
NORTHWEST MISSOURI...
...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms capable of producing large hail and severe wind
gusts are expected late this afternoon and evening across parts of
Kansas, southeast Nebraska, and northwest Missouri. Isolated severe
thunderstorms may also occur across portions of the south-central
High Plains and northern California/southwest Oregon.
...20z Update central and southern Plains...
Thunderstorm development remains likely late this afternoon and this
evening along the frontal zone from southern NE into northeast KS.
While remnant cloud cover has slowed destabilization, sufficient
buoyancy and supercell wind profiles will likely support a risk for
hail, damaging gusts and perhaps a tornado or two this
afternoon/evening. See MCD #367 for specific short-term information.
Farther south along the trailing surface trough/dryline, more
isolated thunderstorm development is expected across the TX
Panhandle and far eastern NM. High cloud bases with deep inverted-v
structures could support isolated severe wind gusts with the heavier
cores. Storm coverage is likely to decrease farther south where
weaker forcing and overall more limited buoyancy is present. Still,
isolated storms are possible, and the 5% wind area was expanded
southward slightly for the latest hi-res guidance.
...CA and OR...
East of an upper low, broad-scale ascent over a modestly warm/moist
air mass was supporting widely scattered thunderstorms over portions
of northern CA and southern OR. While overall buoyancy is weak
(generally below 500 J/kg of MLCAPE), strengthening southerly flow
aloft could support a few organized clusters or transient supercells
capable of producing isolated strong to severe gusts and some hail.
..Lyons.. 04/09/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1128 AM CDT Thu Apr 09 2026/
...Southern High Plains into the Central Plains and Lower/Mid
Missouri Valley...
Ongoing precipitation/thunderstorms and related cloud cover across
north-central/northeast KS into southeast NE/southwest IA is being
aided by modest low-level warm/moist advection in the vicinity of a
surface front. Current expectations are for this activity to
gradually diminish in coverage as it shifts eastward into the
northwest MO/southern IA. In its wake, daytime heating may be
hampered a bit by residual cloudiness across much of
north-central/northeast KS. Even so, continued northward low-level
moisture advection is anticipated across the southern/central Plains
through the afternoon, with surface dewpoints generally in the upper
40s to low/mid 50s. This, coupled with steep mid-level lapse rates
and cold temperatures aloft, will aid in the development of moderate
instability (MLCAPE around 1000-1500 J/kg) along/south of a front
draped generally west to east across northern KS/MO.
Stronger ascent aloft and enhanced westerly flow at mid/upper levels
will remain mostly displaced to the north of the central Plains
today, as multiple mid-level perturbations rotate through mean
mid/upper-level troughing over central/eastern Canada. Still, most
guidance continues to suggest that minimal MLCIN will exist in the
vicinity of the front in north-central/northeast KS and southeast NE
by 22-23Z as surface temperatures warm into the 70s/low 80s.
Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop across
this area by late afternoon/early evening, with modest
south-southwesterly low-level winds veering to west-northwesterly at
mid/upper levels supporting 35-45 kt of deep-layer shear.
Initial convective development will likely be supercellular and pose
a threat for mainly large hail (isolated 2+ inches in diameter
possible). Fairly large surface temperature-dewpoint spreads with a
well-mixed boundary layer and related high cloud bases render
considerable uncertainty regarding tornado potential. But, some risk
for a tornado or two may focus along/near the front through early
evening as effective SRH gradually increases in tandem with a
strengthening south-southwesterly low-level jet. Otherwise, the risk
for severe/damaging winds may gradually increase through mid evening
as thunderstorms tend to cluster/grow modestly upscale. But, the
severe wind risk will likely become more limited by late evening
with the loss of daytime heating and increasing MLCIN with
southward/eastward extent.
Isolated thunderstorms may also develop this afternoon farther
southwest across the central/southern High Plains along and east of
a sharpening surface dryline/lee trough. Overall convective coverage
remains highly uncertain given nebulous/weak large-scale ascent this
far south. Still, some risk for occasional hail and severe gusts
should exist with any sustained cells or clusters that can develop
and spread east-southeastward through the late afternoon/early
evening.
...Northern California/Southwest Oregon...
As an upper-level low over the eastern Pacific approaches the West
Coast today, large-scale ascent will overspread portions of northern
CA into southern OR with scattered thunderstorm development expected
into afternoon. Sufficient moisture and instability should exist
inland beneath strengthening deep-layer southwesterly winds ahead of
the trough to support semi-organized convection. As low-level lapse
rates gradually steepen and flow aloft increases, this activity may
be capable of producing isolated strong to severe gusts and possibly
some hail.
Read more
SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0233 PM CDT Thu Apr 09 2026
Valid 111200Z - 121200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF WEST
TEXAS AND EASTERN NEW MEXICO...
...SUMMARY...
Scattered thunderstorms, some producing hail and strong gusts, will
be possible on Saturday across parts of west Texas and eastern New
Mexico. Isolated strong storms cannot be ruled out affecting parts
of central California.
...Synopsis...
An upper low will swing southeastward into central/northern CA late
on Saturday, providing lift and widespread precipitation. To the
east, an upper ridge will be located over the MS Valley during the
day, and this will shift east toward the Appalachians by 12Z Sunday.
In between these features, a broad zone of modest southwest flow
aloft will encompass the Rockies and Plains states.
At the surface, a large area of high pressure will exist over the
eastern states, with gusty south winds helping to bring 50s to 60s F
dewpoints across TX and OK. A lee trough over the High Plains will
be a focus for afternoon storm development, where shear may support
areas of severe storms. Elsewhere, low pressure will also affect
parts of central CA, moving ashore late in the day. This may also
focus a few strong storms.
...Southern Plains...
Low pressure will deepen over the northern and central High Plains,
with gusty south winds bringing 50s F dewpoints as far north as NE
by 00Z. Southeasterly surface winds will also bring moisture
westward across west TX and into eastern NM. Here, strong heating
and a lack of cap will result in scattered to numerous thunderstorms
during the afternoon. Shear will not be strong, with only 25-35 kt
southwest winds at 500 mb. Some storms may produce hail, and several
storms or clusters may propagate eastward through the night with
areas of strong to severe gusts possible.
A separate area from northeast CO into KS and western NE may support
a few severe cells producing hail as well, as this area will
experience stronger heating near the deepening surface trough, and
with locally backed surface winds.
...Central CA...
Strong cooling aloft will occur during the afternoon and evening as
the upper low moves toward the area. Weak instability will develop
as lapse rates aloft steepen, though just a few hundred J/kg MUCAPE
is currently forecast. Isolated cells may occur in the central
valley late in the afternoon, and, along a cold front as it
approaches the central coast. Gusty winds and perhaps small hail
will be possible. Severe potential is more uncertain three days out,
but the setup will continue to be monitored in later outlooks.
..Jewell.. 04/09/2026
Read more
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0209 PM CDT Thu Apr 09 2026
Valid 101200Z - 111200Z
...Afternoon Update...
No changes were made to the previous forecast. In eastern UT and
western CO, seasonably warm temperatures and low RH on Day
1/Thursday will promote short-term fuel preconditioning for Elevated
fire weather conditions on Day 2/Friday. While mid and high level
clouds are expected to increase across the risk area throughout the
day, very low RH of less than 15 percent and southerly winds of
15-25 mph (gusts up to 35 mph) atop dry fuels will maintain broader
fire concerns.
Farther east, portions of northern KY and southern OH may experience
locally elevated fire weather conditions for a few afternoon hours.
Ahead of an approaching cold front, westerly sustained winds of up
to 10 mph (gusts of 15-20 mph) combined with RH dropping to near 35
percent are expected to overlap a region of drying and potentially
receptive fuels. ERCs in northern KY are approaching the 97th
percentile as 10-hr and 100-hr fuel moistures are forecast to be
within the 10th percentile. While winds will shift out of the north
with the late afternoon cold front arrival, increasing moisture and
decreasing wind speeds into the evening hours should provide some
relief to the fire environment, precluding the introduction of
elevated highlights.
..Elizalde-Garcia/Stearns.. 04/09/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0141 AM CDT Thu Apr 09 2026/
...Synopsis...
A large upper-level trough approaches the California coast on
D2/Friday as another upper trough traverses the Great Lakes into the
Northeast. Simultaneously, upper ridging will persist across the
Rockies and eastern Great Basin, with zonal flow continuing across
the Great Plains. At the surface, a slow moving cold front will
progress southeastward across the Ohio River Valley and Northeast
with high pressure building into the Great Lakes/Midwest.
...Portions of the Great Basin...
A tightened surface pressure gradient will favor sustained southerly
winds of 15-25 mph across much of the eastern/southern Great Basin
on D2/Friday. Despite some mid/high cloud cover, RH values are
forecast to fall to 15-20% (locally down to 10%) during peak mixing
Friday afternoon. With preconditioned, drying fuels from
D1/Thursday, this combination of winds and RH is expected to support
elevated fire weather conditions across much of eastern Utah into
west-central/northwestern Colorado. Deep boundary layer mixing and
modestly strong mid-level flow (25-35 kts within the 700-500 mb
layer) will also support the potential for occasional gusts to 35
mph across this region. Expected precipitation arrival on Saturday
may provide relief to any ongoing or new fire starts.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0512 PM CDT Thu Apr 09 2026
Valid 111200Z - 171200Z
...Synopsis...
On Day 3/Saturday through Day 4/Sunday, an upper-level low is
forecast to move onshore of the northern California coast as an
upper-level ridge strengthens over the central and eastern CONUS. A
lee-surface low ejects off the Rockies on Day 5/Monday, slowly
shifting across the Midwest and Great Lakes region by Day
7/Wednesday. This scenario is likely to result in multiple days of
precipitation across much of the western and central US, which would
temporarily dampen fire weather threats. Continued upper-level
ridging through Day 6/Tuesday across the eastern CONUS should
promote above normal temperatures and drying conditions for much of
the region, though increased chances of precipitation return towards
the middle of next week as the upper trough shifts east.
...Ohio River Valley - Day 4/Sunday...
Increasing potential for 10-15 mph southerly winds and 30-40 percent
RH will present potential fire weather concerns across northeastern
AR into portions of the Ohio River Valley. Parts of this region
range from D2-D4 drought, and given widespread observed ERCs above
the 90th percentile, 40 percent probabilities for Critical fire
weather have been introduced. The expanse of the drawn area may be
adjusted in future outlooks as guidance evolves the northward extent
of gulf moisture advection.
...Southern/Central Plains - Day 4/Sunday through Day 6/Tuesday...
Fire weather conditions may return on Day 4/Sunday as a more potent
shortwave moves across the High Plains. With uncertainty in
precipitation accumulation and the extent of wetting rainfall
earlier in the forecast period, probabilities have been withheld on
Day 4/Sunday for now. Beneath the large upper trough, tight surface
pressure gradients Day 5/Monday-Day 6/Tuesday will further enhance
dry and windy conditions behind the dryline. 40 percent
probabilities of Critical fire weather have been introduced on both
days to account for these concerns.
..Elizalde-Garcia/Stearns.. 04/09/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
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