RSS Mesoscale Discussions from Storm Prediction Center
WW 532 SEVERE TSTM FL GA CW 291845Z - 300200Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 532
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
245 PM EDT Wed Jul 29 2026
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of
North Florida
Southern Georgia
Coastal Waters
* Effective this Wednesday afternoon and evening from 245 PM
until 1000 PM EDT.
* Primary threats include...
Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible
SUMMARY...Thunderstorms will continue to develop over southern
Georgia in a hot/unstable airmass. These storms will track
southward through the afternoon, posing a risk of locally damaging
wind gusts.
The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 60
statute miles north and south of a line from 50 miles northwest of
Tallahassee FL to 35 miles north northeast of St Augustine FL. For a
complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline
update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU2).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.
&&
AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
0.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A
few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector
29020.
...Hart
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WW 0532 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0532 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET
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MD 1796 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR SOUTHERN GEORGIA INTO NORTHERN FLORIDA
Mesoscale Discussion 1796
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0122 PM CDT Wed Jul 29 2026
Areas affected...Southern Georgia into northern Florida
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible
Valid 291822Z - 292015Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent
SUMMARY...Thunderstorms developing across southern Georgia into
northern Florida will likely pose a threat for isolated, to perhaps
scattered, wind damage through the late afternoon and early evening
hours. Watch issuance is possible if thunderstorm clustering occurs
and poses a more widespread severe threat.
DISCUSSION...Latest GOES imagery shows the early stages of
thunderstorm development across southern GA and parts of northern
FL. Convection developing across southern GA is primarily being
driven by ascent along a weak/diffuse surface cold front where
strong heating is occurring (temperatures continue to warm into the
upper 90s to low 100s) and is supporting MLCAPE values upwards of
3000 J/kg. These hot temperature are also supporting steep low-level
lapse rates on the order of 8 to 8.5 C/km, which will foster
accelerating downdrafts with a damaging/severe wind risk with any
deep/robust convective core.
Continued thunderstorm development along the front is anticipated in
the coming hours as further heating occurs, though weak forcing for
ascent casts some uncertainty on the overall coverage of convection
(most likely isolated to scattered). VWPs across southern
GA/northern FL continue to sample very weak flow aloft (generally
less than 20 knots), but stronger flow (25-35 knots) appears to be
glancing central GA based on upstream VWP observations. This may
support somewhat better organization/clustering of convection across
southeast GA through the afternoon, which may yield one or more
focused corridors of damaging wind potential. Convective trends will
continue to be monitored, and watch issuance is possible if/when
such clusters begin to emerge through the afternoon.
..Moore/Hart.. 07/29/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...CHS...MLB...TBW...JAX...FFC...TAE...
LAT...LON 31528460 31918398 31988324 32008243 31938142 31408118
31038134 30688141 30398143 30028138 29168114 29158160
29228236 29318296 29468324 29828353 30018385 30168419
30318444 30598472 30808487 31058491 31288485 31528460
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
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SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1101 AM CDT Wed Jul 29 2026
Valid 291630Z - 301200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST STATES AND NORTHERN HIGH
PLAINS....
...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms with severe wind gusts and hail will be possible this
afternoon and evening in the northern Plains. Severe wind gusts will
also be possible today across southern Georgia and northern Florida,
as well as the Great Basin/northern Intermountain West.
...GA/FL...
Latest surface analysis shows a weak cold front sagging southward
across GA. A very moist and unstable air mass is present along and
south of the front, with dewpoints in the mid 70s and full heating
expected. This will yield afternoon MLCAPE values over 3000 J/kg
and scattered thunderstorm development. Sufficient northwesterly
mid-level flow of 15-25 knots will help storms propagate into north
FL by early evening. Locally damaging wind gusts will be possible
in the stronger cells due to water loading and some momentum
transfer. If outflows can congeal, a more organized damaging wind
risk could develop late this afternoon and early evening before
weakening after dark.
...MT/ND...
Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop this afternoon along
a weak surface boundary near the MT/ND border. These storms will be
in a hot and moderately unstable air mass with MLCAPE around 2000
J/kg. As this activity spreads northeastward across western ND, the
combination of a deep sub-cloud layer, steep low-level lapse rates,
and sufficient flow aloft will pose the risk of damaging wind gusts.
..Hart/Moore.. 07/29/2026
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SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1223 PM CDT Wed Jul 29 2026
Valid 301200Z - 311200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF
SOUTH DAKOTA AND NEBRASKA...
...SUMMARY...
Widely scattered severe storms capable of mainly damaging wind gusts
appear possible over south-central South Dakota into central
Nebraska Thursday afternoon and evening. More sporadic occurrences
of mainly damaging wind appear possible from the northern High
Plains into the upper Mississippi Valley into the central Plains,
the Raton Mesa vicinity, and the central and eastern Gulf Coast.
...Central to northern Plains...
A midlevel wave is forecast to move across the northern Plains
Thursday morning, with areas of thunderstorms likely ongoing from
the Dakotas into eastern NE and KS. Aiding this activity will be
theta-e advection out of the south, with the 850 mb gradient aligned
roughly along the MO River. While some of the region will be locally
stabilized by this activity, a corridor of strong heating/recovery
will occur near the surface trough during the afternoon, with
renewed activity over central SD into NE. Substantial storm coverage
will likely lead to mergers and an eventual MCS moving southeastward
into the evening. Sporadic hail may occur with the afternoon/initial
cells before transitioning to mainly a damaging wind threat.
...Southern AL/GA into northern FL...
A surface trough will remain draped across southern GA and AL with
mid 70s F dewpoints to the south. A weak northwest flow regime will
also remain over the area as the upper trough over the Northeast
slowly departs. Strong daytime heating will lead to substantial
instability, with scattered storms developing along the boundary.
Given the high PWAT and steep low-level lapse rates, some of the
cells are expected to produce locally damaging gusts.
..Jewell.. 07/29/2026
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SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0227 PM CDT Wed Jul 29 2026
Valid 311200Z - 011200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL
IOWA ACROSS MUCH OF MISSOURI AND INTO NORTHERN ARKANSAS...AND OVER
PARTS OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...
...SUMMARY...
At least isolated severe storms appear possible from Iowa southward
into the Ozarks, and over the central and southern High Plains
Friday afternoon and evening.
...IA/MO/AR...
A shortwave trough is forecast to develop out of the northern Plains
and move southeastward toward the mid MS Valley Friday, with
increasing midlevel northwesterlies to over 40 kt. At the surface,
low pressure should develop from southern IA into northern MO during
the day, moving into western IL by 12Z Saturday.
Upper 60s to lower 70s F dewpoints will be common ahead of an
associated cold front which will extend roughly across southern IA
and into central MO during the peak heating hours. While midlevel
lapse rates will not be particularly steep, MLCAPE over 2000 J/kg is
still forecast. Further, winds will veer with height, resulting in
semi-favorable hodographs for supercells with deep layer shear over
30 kt.
Early day rain appears likely from southern MN into IA and MO as the
initial warm/moist advection occurs, with diurnal storms expected
along the front during the late afternoon. The stronger storms may
produce hail, a brief tornado, or damaging wind gusts. Placement of
such a narrow north/south risk area has inherent uncertainties this
far out, but a corridor of greater severe probabilities could be
required in later outlooks as predictability increases.
...Eastern CO/NM...
Northwest flow aloft on the order of 20-30 kt will exist over the
High Plains on the backside of the shortwave trough to the
northeast. Surface winds will veer to east/northeasterly by late
afternoon as peak heating is attained. Dewpoints into the 50s F,
steep low-level lapse rates and modest northwest flow aloft should
yield a few cells capable of marginally severe hail or wind.
..Jewell.. 07/29/2026
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SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1124 AM CDT Wed Jul 29 2026
Valid 291700Z - 301200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
Along the periphery of monsoonal moisture, mixed wet/dry
thunderstorms capable of strong/severe wind gusts are expected this
afternoon across south-central to southeastern Idaho (See the SPC
Day 1 Convective Outlook). Despite 0.7-1.0" PWATs, a dry sub-cloud
layer and fast storm motions may restrict higher accumulations of
rainfall (except in areas that receive multiple rounds of
thunderstorms). Fuels range from the 70-90th percentile, with the
lowest ERCs in southeastern Idaho where recent (48-hour) rain has
fallen, increasing to the 90th percentile farther north and west.
Lightning ignitions cannot be ruled out, especially where drier
fuels exist. See the previous forecast discussion for additional
information.
..Elizalde-Garcia.. 07/29/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1234 AM CDT Wed Jul 29 2026/
...Synopsis...
Weak upper-level troughing will linger over the northwestern US with
a cold front stalling and weakening over the northwest Great Basin
into the northern Rockies. Upper-level heights will build over much
of the West while the upper high remains over the southern High
Plains/Rockies. Weak shortwave troughs may rotate through the weak
troughing over the northwestern US and around the western/northern
periphery of the upper high over portions of the Great Basin and
central Rockies.
Locally elevated conditions are likely to develop across portions of
Nevada with forecast southerly to westerly sustained winds of 10-15
mph with gusts of 20-25 mph amid minimum RH of 5-15%. The increase
of breezy winds will be along a surface thermal trough and below
slightly increased winds aloft due to a passing weak mid-level
shortwave trough. Active large fires near the periphery of monsoonal
moisture and thunderstorm chances in the central/eastern Great Basin
may produce deep pyroconvection as well.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
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SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0153 PM CDT Wed Jul 29 2026
Valid 301200Z - 311200Z
Isolated Dry Thunderstorm highlights were maintained across central
Idaho into western Montana for Day 2/Thursday. While limiting
factors to storm initiation (listed in the previous discussion)
still apply, high-resolution guidance continues to depict afternoon
(and possibly nocturnal) thunderstorms. Considering ERCs greater
than the 90th percentile across the region, and several ongoing
wildfires, a lightning ignition cannot be ruled out within the
increasingly receptive fuelscape. The rest of the forecast remains
on track, see the previous discussion for more information.
..Elizalde-Garcia.. 07/29/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1236 AM CDT Wed Jul 29 2026/
...Synopsis...
An upper high will continue to slowly drift westward over the
Southwest and likely expand from off the southern California coast
through the southern Plains. Upper-level heights are likely to build
over the Intermountain West, but an upper-level trough will approach
the Pacific Northwest during the evening and overnight.
Additionally, a weak mid-level shortwave trough is likely to precede
the larger trough and move over northern California and Oregon into
Idaho from late afternoon through overnight.
An IsoDryT area was maintained from central Idaho into western
Montana. There is some concern regarding thunderstorm development
due to building heights aloft and widespread, thick smoke across the
region. Given these potential constraints, high-based showers with
little to no lightning are possible. However, high-resolution
forecast guidance still indicates the potential for isolated to
perhaps scattered thunderstorms. If the mid-level shortwave arrives
slightly earlier than currently forecast (i.e., around peak
heating), this could provide enough instability and forcing for
ascent aloft to increase thunderstorm chances and coverage.
Regardless, given the forecast PWAT values of 0.5-0.8" and expected
high LCLs with a dry sub cloud layer, most showers/storms will
produce little to no wetting rain.
Locally elevated fire weather conditions are likely across portions
of the Inland Northwest into northern California and the
western/northern Great Basin. The onshore pressure gradient across
the Northwest will strengthen with the approaching upper-level
trough and a deep, well-mixed boundary layer will develop farther
south across much of the Great Basin. This will result in
west-southwest sustained winds of 10-15 mph with gusts of 20-25 mph
amid minimum RH of 5-20%.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
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