RSS Mesoscale Discussions from Storm Prediction Center
No watches are valid as of Thu Jun 25 19:36:02 UTC 2026.
MD 1312 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR EASTERN INDIANA INTO OHIO AND FAR WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA
Mesoscale Discussion 1312
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0210 PM CDT Thu Jun 25 2026
Areas affected...Eastern Indiana into Ohio and far western
Pennsylvania
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible
Valid 251910Z - 252115Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent
SUMMARY...Thunderstorms developing along and ahead of a diffuse cold
front may pose a damaging wind and large hail threat through the
afternoon and early evening hours. Watch issuance may be needed to
address this concern.
DISCUSSION...The early stages of convective development are well
underway across eastern IN into northwest OH as destabilization
continues along and ahead of a diffuse cold front. Additionally,
growing cumulus is noted in GOES visible imagery across central OH
where temperatures are warming into the low 80s. Continued
thunderstorm development is expected through late afternoon as the
front continues to migrate east/southeast and ascent ahead of an
approaching upper wave/upper jet streak. Recent HRRR solutions
appear to be capturing these trends well, and forecast sounding from
recent runs depict fairly marginal mid-level lapse rates, but
sufficient buoyancy profiles to utilize the strong deep-layer shear
in place across the region. Consequently, a few supercells and/or
organized convective bands appear possible through early evening as
this activity spreads east across OH and eventually into far western
PA. While the modest thermodynamic environment may modulate overall
storm intensity, sporadic large hail and severe gusts up to 55-65
mph appear possible. Watch issuance may be needed if the severe
threat becomes sufficiently widespread through the next few hours.
..Moore/Guyer.. 06/25/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...PBZ...RLX...CLE...ILN...IWX...IND...
LAT...LON 40278583 40998437 41578332 41578309 41468267 41448247
41508195 41668141 42098016 41907996 41568000 41108026
40558100 39978196 39668323 39518417 39508480 39548536
39648580 39808594 39968599 40278583
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN
Read more
MD 1311 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR SOUTHWEST KANSAS...THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE AND NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA...AND THE NORTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE
Mesoscale Discussion 1311
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0156 PM CDT Thu Jun 25 2026
Areas affected...southwest Kansas...the Oklahoma Panhandle and
northwest Oklahoma...and the northern Texas Panhandle
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible
Valid 251856Z - 252130Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent
SUMMARY...The potential for severe storms capable of mainly large
hail and damaging winds is expected to increase across the
discussion area by 20-21Z. A localized corridor of tornado potential
may materialize at that time in southwest Kansas into northwest OK,
generally along and east of US 283.
DISCUSSION...Recent trends in visible satellite indicate a deepening
cumulus field over the central OK Panhandle, near Guymon.
Mesoanalysis places that convection near a surface low, which is
located along a front extending from southwest KS into the western
Oklahoma Panhandle. That boundary delineates a hot, deeper-mixed
boundary layer to the south across the northern TX Panhandle from a
more moist and unstable air mass to the north in southwest KS.
Continued daytime heating and resultant air mass destabilization
should eventually support isolated to widely scattered, high-based
thunderstorms across the western 2/3rds of the OK and far northern
TX Panhandles, near and to the immediate south of the frontal
segment west of the surface low. The potential for strong
evaporative cooling within the sub-cloud layer will support severe
wind gusts as the primary hazard with large hail also possible.
Additional storms are anticipated from the vicinity of the surface
low east along the frontal segment in southwest KS and northwest OK.
That environment features a considerably more moist/low LCL
boundary, which coincides with a zone of enhanced low-level and
deep-layer shear, supportive of supercell storm modes capable of
large hail and perhaps a few tornadoes, especially along and east of
US 283.
Convective trends are being monitored in both regimes for a possible
watch.
..Mead.. 06/25/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...OUN...DDC...AMA...ABQ...
LAT...LON 36780271 36930209 37940123 38129903 37669859 36759848
35639984 35170111 35450242 35880286 36660301 36780271
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-125 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN
Read more
MD 1310 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR EASTERN MISSOURI INTO SOUTHERN ILLINOIS AND SOUTHWEST INDIANA
Mesoscale Discussion 1310
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0111 PM CDT Thu Jun 25 2026
Areas affected...Eastern Missouri into southern Illinois and
southwest Indiana
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 251811Z - 252015Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent
SUMMARY...Scattered thunderstorms will continue to develop through
late afternoon. Sporadic instances of large hail and damaging winds
appear possible, but will most likely remain too isolated to warrant
watch issuance.
DISCUSSION...Over the past hour, thunderstorms have been slowly
deepening in the St. Louis area and eastward into southern IL. This
activity appears to be driven primarily by a combination of weak
low-level confluence and glancing ascent from a passing upper-level
wave to the north across central/northern IL. Despite the weak
ascent, very moist low-level conditions coupled with continued
diurnal warming are quickly eroding any lingering MLCIN and should
result in scattered to somewhat widespread thunderstorm coverage
from eastern MO to southwest IN over the next several hours. The
moist low-level conditions are also compensating for the otherwise
limited mid-level lapse rates and supporting MLCAPE values on the
order of 2000 J/kg. Recent VWP observations from KLSX are sampling
0-6 km bulk wind values on the order of 20-25 knots, which aligns
well with recent RRFS solutions and suggests some storm organization
is possible, including the potential for transient supercell
structures across southern IL where deep-layer wind shear should be
slightly stronger. However, weak low-level winds will likely promote
outflow-dominant convection that may modulate storm lifespans and
favor clustered storm modes. Nonetheless, sporadic instances of
large hail (possibly as high as 1.5 inches) and damaging winds
appear possible through late afternoon based on the convective
environment and output from the past few RRFS solutions.
..Moore/Guyer.. 06/25/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...LMK...IND...PAH...ILX...LSX...
LAT...LON 39069079 39218752 39228683 38958657 38688655 38368674
38078709 37948743 37788835 37768971 37859051 38109087
38399105 38849111 39069079
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN
Read more
MD 1309 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR SOUTH-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS...NORTH-CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA...AND SOUTHWEST MISSOURI
Mesoscale Discussion 1309
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1238 PM CDT Thu Jun 25 2026
Areas affected...south-central and southeast Kansas...north-central
and northeast Oklahoma...and southwest Missouri
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible
Valid 251738Z - 252015Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent
SUMMARY...The threat for severe storms capable of all hazards is
expected to increase across the discussion area this afternoon.
Convective trends are being monitored for a possible watch.
DISCUSSION...As of 1730Z, mosaic radar data indicated a long-lived,
bowing line segment west of Wichita with additional more cellular
storms extending into north-central OK, east of Ponca City. That
activity is likely still slightly elevated above a stable,
near-surface inversion with the primary forcing mechanism being a
zone of warm thermal and moisture advection occurring along a 30 kt
low-level jet. Visible satellite indicates breaks in the cirrus
cloud canopy across northern OK, which should allow for pockets of
stronger heating to occur. And while mid-level lapse rates are not
particularly steep, the presence of a very moist boundary layer will
combine with the increased insolation to support MLCAPE of 1500-3000
J/kg with weakening MLCIN for surface-based parcels.
The destabilization process coupled with the persistent warm
advection is expected to promote the gradual intensification of the
ongoing storms this afternoon with additional storm development
possible along the synoptic front and/or any lingering
outflow/differential heating boundaries. The combination of 40-45 kt
westerly mid-level flow attending a subtle short-wave trough over
central KS and the low-level jet mentioned above is resulting in a
favorable kinematic environment for severe storms with the KVNX
currently sampling 0-6-km shear and 0-1-km SRH of 54 kt and 200+
m2/s2, respectively.
Given the above considerations, the potential for all severe-weather
hazards is expected to increase this afternoon with any storms that
can become rooted within the boundary layer. The greatest potential
for a strong tornado or two will exist with supercell storm modes
within this convective regime.
Convective trends are being monitored for signs that storms are
becoming surface-based, which would necessitate strong consideration
for a watch.
..Mead.. 06/25/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...SGF...TSA...TOP...ICT...OUN...
LAT...LON 37609778 37729729 38079580 37989469 37659436 37099410
36639424 36579468 36479516 36549655 37039780 37609778
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-125 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN
Read more
SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1133 AM CDT Thu Jun 25 2026
Valid 251630Z - 261200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS TO OZARKS...WYOMING...AND UPPER OHIO
VALLEY...
...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected through this evening
across parts of the southern/central Plains, with large hail and
severe/damaging winds possible. A more focused corridor of tornado
potential may exist this afternoon/evening across northern Oklahoma
and southern Kansas, where a strong tornado may occur.
...Southern/Central Plains and Ozarks...
Strong convection continues at midday across south-central Kansas
into northern Oklahoma, augmenting a front that will continue to
settle south-southeastward toward the Texas Panhandle and western
Oklahoma by this evening. Some of this convection has been
organized/bowing on a small scale this morning and some diurnal
intensification could occur through peak heating as it progresses
southeastward, but the continued influence of proximal rain-cooled
air casts some uncertainty regarding intensity/peak risk timing.
The most likely scenario will be for the possibility of deeper
convective development later this afternoon on the west-southwest
flank of these lingering early day storms, where outflow
modifies/intercepts the surface front, and in north and east
proximity to a Panhandles surface low. Additional post-frontal
low-level upslope flow-related potentially severe storms are also
expected across southeast Colorado near the Front Range
southeastward into the Panhandle beginning mid/late afternoon.
This anticipated development later today is expected to be focused
in a narrow corridor of moderate to strong instability from
southeast Colorado east-southeastward into far southern Kansas and
northern Oklahoma. With strong deep-layer shear expected, initial
supercells should pose a threat for large hail, severe wind gusts
and potentially a tornado risk. But, convective mode will probably
tend to become mixed/messy quickly, as thunderstorms interact/merge
with each other. Low-level shear is forecast to markedly increase
near the surface boundary later today as a southerly low-level jet
strengthens. Resultant elongated/curved hodographs support the
potential for tornadoes, especially with any thunderstorms that can
remain at least semi-discrete. And given the enhanced effective SRH
near the boundary, a strong tornado appears possible if a supercell
mode can be maintained.
Higher-based convection will develop farther south into the
southern High Plains this afternoon, where a more deeply mixed
airmass suggests a greater threat for scattered severe/damaging
winds. But, some hail could also occur with the stronger cores. This
activity should tend to cluster and spread east-southeastward across
northwest Texas, the Oklahoma/Texas Panhandles, and eventually into
western Oklahoma this evening, while continuing to pose mainly a
severe wind threat before eventually weakening.
...Mid Mississippi Valley into the Ohio Valley and New York...
50-60 kt mid-level westerly flow will spread eastward across the
Midwest/Ohio Valley into the central Appalachians through this
evening as an upper-level trough moves eastward over the Great
Lakes. A weak surface low should also develop eastward over the
lower Great Lakes, with a cold front advancing east-southeastward
across the Midwest/Ohio Valley. Surface dewpoints generally range in
the 50s to low 60s F ahead of the front. Coupled with poor mid lapse
rates aloft and ongoing cloudiness, instability that develops by
this afternoon may tend to remain somewhat limited. Even so, strong
deep-layer shear associated with the mid-level jet will aid in
updraft organization, with a mix of multicell clusters and possibly
some marginal supercell structures developing this afternoon
along/ahead of the front. Isolated severe hail and damaging winds
both appear possible, and a tornado or two may also occur across
parts of Ohio into western/central Pennsylvania and western New York
where slightly stronger low-level flow and related shear should
exist. A somewhat higher/more focused severe potential appears to
exist across central/eastern Ohio into western Pennsylvania from
mid-afternoon through early evening.
...Utah/Wyoming/Montana and far eastern Idaho...
Similar to yesterday, fairly high-based showers and thunderstorms
should develop this afternoon across the eastern Great Basin. With a
well-mixed boundary layer forecast with daytime heating, the main
threat with most of this activity should be isolated severe winds
with outflow-dominant convection as it spreads from Utah into
Wyoming this afternoon and evening. Have introduced a wind-related
categorical Slight risk for the potential of semi-organized storms
as a mid-level speed max interfaces with an unstable/well-mixed
boundary layer across Wyoming. Otherwise, occasional hail may also
exist farther north in southeast Idaho, Wyoming, and parts of
Montana, where cooler temperatures aloft, stronger mid-level
flow/deep-layer shear, and pockets of greater instability should
support more robust convection.
..Guyer/Moore.. 06/25/2026
Read more
SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1229 PM CDT Thu Jun 25 2026
Valid 261200Z - 271200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PORTIONS OF FAR
EASTERN MISSOURI...SOUTHERN ILLINOIS INTO SOUTHERN INDIANA...AND
NORTHWESTERN KENTUCKY...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe storms will be possible across the High Plains,
southern Kansas and northern Oklahoma, and into the Ohio Valley on
Friday. Additional severe storms capable of damaging wind and
isolated large hail will also be possible across portions of the
Northeast.
...Synopsis...
A mid-level trough across the northern Pacific will deepen and begin
to shift inland across the western US on Friday. Height rises will
begin as ridging builds in across the central/northern Plains.
Between these features, strong southwesterly flow aloft will
overspread the northern Rockies, with resulting lee cyclogenesis
occurring across Montana/northern Wyoming. Further east, a shortwave
trough will move across the Middle Mississippi Valley/Ohio Valley,
with a surface low possibly deepening and moving northeast from
Texas into the Middle Mississippi/Ohio Valley. Across the
northeastern US, a belt of strengthening mid-level flow will shift
through the broader mid-level trough as a surface low shifts into
Quebec. A broad cold front will extend from the northeastern surface
low back into the Mississippi Valley and Central/Southern Plains.
...High Plains...
Increasing mid-level ascent and surface low development will support
scattered thunderstorm development across the high terrain from
eastern Montana south into Wyoming and Colorado. Height rises across
the central/northern Plains may inhibit coverage a bit with eastward
extent. Weak to moderate instability is progged by the afternoon
along with steep low to mid-level lapse rates. Deep layer shear will
be strongest across eastern Montana, weakening into
Wyoming/Colorado. Given modest shear, potential for a mixed mode of
supercells and multi-cell clusters capable of damaging winds and
large hail.
...Central/southern Plains to the Ohio Valley...
A broad area of showers/thunderstorm activity is likely to be
ongoing near the start of the period from the Mid Mississippi Valley
into the Great Lakes region. The focus for afternoon redevelopment
across portions of eastern Missouri into southern Illinois/Indiana
will likely be where the residual outflow/differential heating
boundary intersects the surface cold front by the afternoon.
Guidance suggests that though cloud cover may linger, air mass
recovery through filtered heating will lead to moderate instability
by the afternoon. Recent trends in 06z ECMWF guidance has come into
somewhat better agreement with the NAM, which was an outlier in the
00z guidance, suggesting that a surface low may deepen across
southern Illinois/Indiana by the afternoon. This would result in
much stronger low-level jet response across the region and potential
for an increase in tornado potential. Some limiting factors may be
the relatively weak mid-level flow and storm mode. Nonetheless,
tornado probabilities were increased to 5% to account for some
potential for a tornado or two. The main threats will likely be
damaging wind and hail with supercells and multi-cell clusters
developing near and ahead of the front by the afternoon.
Additional thunderstorm development is likely along the front south
and westward into portions of the Southern Plains. Forcing for
ascent will be weaker to the west, but sufficient deep layer shear
for a few organized storms will be in place near the frontal zone
amid moderate to strong instability. These storms will pose
potential for damaging wind and hail also.
...Northeast...
A belt of strong mid-level westerly flow will overspread the
Northeast in the wake of morning convection. While it remains
uncertain how much destabilization can occur behind the morning
activity, it does appear that additional thunderstorms are likely
to develop by the afternoon. Given strong deep layer shear profiles
amid strengthening upper-level flow, these storms will pose some
potential for damaging wind and few instances of large hail.
..Thornton.. 06/25/2026
Read more
SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0226 PM CDT Thu Jun 25 2026
Valid 271200Z - 281200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC...
...SUMMARY...
Severe storms are likely across portions of eastern Montana and
western North Dakota on Saturday. Severe storms will also be
possible from the Mid-Mississippi Valley to Virginia and the
Carolinas.
...Synopsis...
A mid-level trough across the western US will ejected across the
northern Rockies, with strong mid-level flow overspreading the High
Plains on D3/Saturday. In response, a surface low across eastern
Montana will deepen with strengthening southerly flow into the High
Plains. A secondary surface low will move eastward across the Ohio
Valley into the Mid-Atlantic through the period.
...Northern Plains...
As southerly flow increases with the deepening surface cyclone
across eastern Montana, mid 60s dew points will surge northward into
portions of the northern High Plains. Guidance suggests that a
narrow corridor of moderate to strong instability will be in place
ahead of the surface low across portions of eastern Montana into the
western/central Dakotas. Additionally, a plume of steep low to
mid-level lapse rates will push northward through morning/afternoon.
Thunderstorm activity is expected first across the high terrain in
eastern Montana/northern Wyoming. It is likely that as this moves
into the lower elevations, it will cluster and grow upscale into one
or more clusters/MCS moving north and east into the Dakotas through
the afternoon/evening. These may be further supported by the
increasing low-level jet into the evening, with potential to
produce damaging wind (perhaps some significant 70+ mph). Higher
probabilities may be warranted with additional information/higher
confidence in corridors of damaging wind potential.
...Mid-Mississippi Valley to the Carolinas and Virginia...
Widely scattered thunderstorm activity is expected to develop along
a front extending from the Mid-Atlantic back into the southern Ohio
Valley. Flow is expected to be generally weak with modest shear.
Guidance suggests that moderate to strong buoyancy will develop
across the region amid steep low to mid-level lapse rates. Despite
weaker shear profiles, this may support a few organized clusters
capable of damaging winds/wet downbursts.
A more favorable corridor for wind will exist from North Carolina
into Virginia. Here a shortwave trough will move eastward with a
modest increase in mid-level flow and deep layer shear. This may
support potential for a more organized line of thunderstorms to
shift eastward to the coastline. Forecast soundings indicate steep
low-level lapse rates will be in place across this region, further
supporting potential for downward momentum transport. A Slight Risk
was added across this area to cover this potential.
..Thornton.. 06/25/2026
Read more
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1146 AM CDT Thu Jun 25 2026
Valid 251700Z - 261200Z
...Morning Update...
Good overnight humidity recoveries occurred across the Great Basin
and central Rockies owing to increased moisture advection and
widespread showers yesterday afternoon/evening. Overall, observed 24
hr precipitation does not exceed 0.30" (except in a few isolated
areas) likely due to deep sub-cloud layer extending above 3 km, as
shown by 00z soundings from LKN, BOI, SLC, and GJT. Isolated dry
thunderstorms alongside strong/severe outflow winds remain possible
this afternoon. See the previous discussion and the SPC Day 1
Convective Outlook for more information on severe potential.
Across the Columbia Basin and central-northern NV, poor overnight
humidity recoveries have led to RH values of less than 25% this
morning. Current satellite imagery depicts increasing cloud cover
over parts of Washington and Oregon, forecast to expand this
afternoon as a westerly jet at the base of an incoming trough moves
overhead. As a result, RH may not quite reach widespread critical
thresholds, and daytime high temperatures will be 5-10 degrees below
average. However, sustained winds of 15-20 mph (gusts over 25 mph)
atop receptive fuels will maintain Elevated fire weather highlights.
..Elizalde-Garcia.. 06/25/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0106 AM CDT Thu Jun 25 2026/
...Synopsis...
A sub-tropical moisture plume will continue to progress eastward
across the Interior West today. This feature will provide a focus
for both wet and dry thunderstorms from southeastern ID though the
western half of CO and northwest NM into northeast AZ and the
eastern 2/3 of UT. On the western fringe of this potential
thunderstorm activity, mid-level west/southwest flow will combine
with drier air, leading to a well-mixed boundary layer. Farther
north, closer to the incoming trough over the Pacific Northwest, a
cold front will tighten the surface pressure gradient leading to
southwest flow over dry fuels there.
...Great Basin, Southwest, and central Rockies...
Thunderstorm coverage, particularly over western CO, will likely be
greater than what occurred on Wednesday with slightly less
precipitable water available as moisture progresses farther inland.
However, given overnight rainfall and fuels becoming slightly less
dry, lightning ignition efficiency is likely to decrease going into
today across many of the areas covered by the Isolated Dry
Thunderstorm risk. Thus, the less favorable fuel conditions will
balance the somewhat more favorable atmospheric environment and
preclude any areas of potentially scattered dry thunderstorms. Given
the slightly drier vertical profiles and remaining sub-cloud dry
layer, any storms that do form will have potential for gusty outflow
winds. (See the SPC Day 1 Convective Outlook for additional
details.) Additionally, pyrocumulus development remains highly
possible with pyrocumulonimbus not out of the question if fire
activity can provide sufficient surface heating.
Over much of eastern NV and portions of western UT, southwest flow
aloft over hotter and drier surface conditions will lead to Elevated
wind/RH conditions. In this region, expect winds to be southwest to
westerly at 15-20 mph amid minimum RHs ranging from 10-20 percent.
...Pacific Northwest...
Farther northwest over WA and portions of OR east of the Cascades,
west to southwest flow will promote strong downslope winds and dry
conditions. Southwesterly sustained surface winds of 15-20 mph will
combine with 10-15% RH to support Elevated fire weather concerns
there as well. A cold front will push through the Columbia Basin
this evening into the overnight hours, bringing increased
precipitation chances and cooler temperatures.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0233 PM CDT Thu Jun 25 2026
Valid 261200Z - 271200Z
...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR CENTRAL UTAH INTO
NORTHWEST ARIZONA AND EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN NEVADA...
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR MUCH OF UTAH...EASTERN
NEVADA...NORTHERN ARIZONA...SOUTHWESTERN WYOMING...AND FAR WESTERN
COLORADO...
***Dangerous fire weather conditions are expected across portions of
the Great Basin and Southwest on Day 2/Friday***
...Northwest Arizona and far eastern Nevada into central Utah ...
A slight westward expansion was made to the Extremely Critical fire
weather risk area as high resolution guidance depicts an extensive
region of sustained southwest winds of 25-35 mph (gusts over 35 mph)
amid 5-15% RH. 10+ hours of widespread critical conditions alongside
poor overnight humidity recoveries and residual gusty winds will
result in an extended burning period, further exacerbating the fire
environment and impacting control efforts.
...Colorado Plateau...
Isolated Dry Thunderstorm highlights were introduced across the CO
West Slope, northwestern NM, and extreme southeastern UT as strong
mid-level flow and sufficient lift overspread the region. Despite
preceding days of mixed wet/dry thunderstorms, pockets of fuels will
remain receptive (80-90th percentile) to lightning ignitions.
Concerns increase significantly as multiple days of critical fire
weather conditions (above normal temperatures, strong winds and
critically low RH) are expected this weekend, potentially impacting
nascent wildfires born from thunderstorm activity mid-week.
A mix of wet/dry thunderstorms are expected across portions of the
Pacific Northwest on Day 2/Friday evening into the overnight hours.
While fuels could initially be receptive to lightning ignitions,
cooler temperatures, 0.5-1.0" of widespread rainfall, and increasing
RH will encourage less favorable fuel conditions. Thus, Isolated Dry
Thunderstorm highlights have been withheld.
..Elizalde-Garcia.. 06/25/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0108 AM CDT Thu Jun 25 2026/
...Synopsis...
A robust fire weather pattern is expected across an expansive
portion of the Intermountain West starting on Day 2/Friday and
continuing through the weekend. Preceding dry thunderstorms on
Wednesday and Thursday will be followed by exceptionally dry and
windy conditions to promote significant fire weather concerns for
any new ignitions, lightning holdovers, and ongoing large fires
across the western CONUS.
A seasonally abnormal trough and associated mid-level jet will move
over the Pacific Northwest on Day 2/Friday, causing significant fire
weather concerns for the Great Basin and much of the Southwest. The
latest forecast guidance suggests a corridor of strong southwest
winds beginning Day 2/Friday afternoon across northern AZ through
southwest WY. At the surface, southwest winds of 25-35 mph are
likely to develop amid very dry RHs of 5-15% over the corridor of
highest concern. Accordingly, an area of Extremely Critical fire
weather risk was introduced over portions of central and southwest
UT, northwest AZ, and far southeast Nevada. Over the surrounding
areas of those states as well as far western CO, southwestern WY,
far western NM, and southeast CA, where winds are slightly less
intense, a Critical to Elevated wind/RH risk area will also exist.
Several days of poor overnight humidity recoveries and residual
gusty winds will further intensify the fire environment.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
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