RSS Mesoscale Discussions from Storm Prediction Center
WW 283 SEVERE TSTM MT ND 070035Z - 070800Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 283
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
635 PM MDT Sat Jun 6 2026
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of
Eastern Montana
Western North Dakota
* Effective this Saturday night and Sunday morning from 635 PM
until 200 AM MDT.
* Primary threats include...
Scattered damaging winds and isolated significant gusts to 75
mph possible
Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2
inches in diameter possible
SUMMARY...A mix of high-based supercells and multicells should pose
a threat for large hail up to 1-2 inches in diameter and
severe/damaging winds around 60-75 mph this evening and through the
early overnight hours as this activity moves northeastward.
The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 125
statute miles east and west of a line from 25 miles south of Miles
City MT to 70 miles north northeast of Wolf Point MT. For a complete
depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update
(WOUS64 KWNS WOU3).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.
&&
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 279...WW 281...WW 282...
AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 65 knots. A
few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector
21040.
...Gleason
Read more
WW 0283 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 283
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..SUPINIE..06/07/26
ATTN...WFO...BYZ...GGW...BIS...
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 283
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
MTC017-019-021-025-033-055-069-071-079-083-085-087-091-105-109-
070240-
MT
. MONTANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CUSTER DANIELS DAWSON
FALLON GARFIELD MCCONE
PETROLEUM PHILLIPS PRAIRIE
RICHLAND ROOSEVELT ROSEBUD
SHERIDAN VALLEY WIBAUX
NDC007-011-013-023-033-053-061-087-105-070240-
ND
. NORTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BILLINGS BOWMAN BURKE
DIVIDE GOLDEN VALLEY MCKENZIE
MOUNTRAIL SLOPE WILLIAMS
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
Read more
WW 0282 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 282
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..LYONS..06/06/26
ATTN...WFO...CLE...RLX...PBZ...
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 282
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
OHC005-009-013-019-029-031-033-043-059-063-067-075-077-081-083-
093-101-103-105-111-115-117-119-121-127-139-143-147-151-157-163-
167-169-173-175-070040-
OH
. OHIO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ASHLAND ATHENS BELMONT
CARROLL COLUMBIANA COSHOCTON
CRAWFORD ERIE GUERNSEY
HANCOCK HARRISON HOLMES
HURON JEFFERSON KNOX
LORAIN MARION MEDINA
MEIGS MONROE MORGAN
MORROW MUSKINGUM NOBLE
PERRY RICHLAND SANDUSKY
SENECA STARK TUSCARAWAS
VINTON WASHINGTON WAYNE
WOOD WYANDOT
WVC009-029-051-069-073-095-103-107-070040-
WV
. WEST VIRGINIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
Read more
WW 0281 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 281
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 NNW SBY
TO 25 SSW JFK TO 25 W BDR TO 5 NNW BDL.
..LYONS..06/07/26
ATTN...WFO...OKX...PHI...
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 281
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
CTC001-009-070240-
CT
. CONNECTICUT COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
FAIRFIELD NEW HAVEN
NYC059-103-070240-
NY
. NEW YORK COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
NASSAU SUFFOLK
ANZ331-335-340-345-353-355-450-451-452-453-070240-
CW
. ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE
LONG ISLAND SOUND EAST OF NEW HAVEN CT/PORT JEFFERSON NY TO THE
MOUTH OF THE CONNECTICUT RIVER
Read more
WW 0280 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 280
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SE MSV TO
10 NNW GFL.
..LYONS..06/06/26
ATTN...WFO...ALY...BGM...
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 280
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
CTC005-070040-
CT
. CONNECTICUT COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
LITCHFIELD
MAC003-070040-
MA
. MASSACHUSETTS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BERKSHIRE
NYC001-021-027-039-083-093-111-070040-
NY
. NEW YORK COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ALBANY COLUMBIA DUTCHESS
GREENE RENSSELAER SCHENECTADY
ULSTER
Read more
WW 0279 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 279
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SE SBN TO
35 ESE IND.
..LYONS..06/07/26
ATTN...WFO...IWX...IND...ILN...
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 279
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
INC011-015-017-023-045-067-103-107-157-159-171-181-070240-
IN
. INDIANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BOONE CARROLL CASS
CLINTON FOUNTAIN HOWARD
MIAMI MONTGOMERY TIPPECANOE
TIPTON WARREN WHITE
OHC003-125-137-161-070240-
OH
. OHIO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ALLEN PAULDING PUTNAM
VAN WERT
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
Read more
WW 0278 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 278
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 ESE MRB
TO 25 SSE CXY TO 40 W ABE.
..SUPINIE..06/06/26
ATTN...WFO...LWX...CTP...
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 278
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
DCC001-062340-
DC
. DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA
MDC003-005-009-013-015-025-027-031-033-510-062340-
MD
. MARYLAND COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ANNE ARUNDEL BALTIMORE CALVERT
CARROLL CECIL HARFORD
HOWARD MONTGOMERY PRINCE GEORGES
MARYLAND INDEPENDENT CITIES INCLUDED ARE
BALTIMORE CITY
Read more
No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Sun Jun 7 02:27:02 UTC 2026.
SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0802 PM CDT Sat Jun 06 2026
Valid 070100Z - 071200Z
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS...
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE OHIO VALLEY...MID-ATLANTIC AND SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...
...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms with severe wind gusts and hail are expected this
evening over parts of southern New England, and from the Ohio Valley
into the northern Mid-Atlantic. Large hail and severe wind gusts
(including gusts exceeding 75 mph) are also expected in the northern
High Plains.
...New England...
A line of strong to severe thunderstorms is ongoing from New Jersey
northeastward into southern New England. This line is being
supported by large-scale ascent associated with a mid-level
shortwave trough moving eastward through the central Appalachians.
Ahead of the line, surface dewpoints across southern New England are
in the lower to mid 60s F, and the RAP is analyzing MUCAPE around
1000 J/kg. The WSR-88D VWPs at both New York and Boston have 0-6 km
shear in the 30 to 35 knot range, with 35 knots of flow 1 km above
the surface. This environment, along with steep low-level lapse
rates, evident on forecast soundings will be favorable for severe
wind gusts as the line moves eastward across southern New England
this evening.
Further north across the remainder of New England, scattered
thunderstorms are ongoing. These storms are located in the vicinity
of an instability maximum, where the RAP has MUCAPE in the 1000 to
1500 J/kg range. In addition, moderate deep-layer shear is present
which should support an isolated threat for severe gusts and hail.
...Southern Great Lakes/Ohio Valley...
The latest water vapor imagery shows west-northwesterly mid-level
flow over the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley. At the surface, a cold
front is located from far northern Indiana eastward to near Lake
Erie. To the south of the front, dewpoints are mostly in the lower
70s F, which is contributing to moderate instability. The RAP has
MLCAPE in the 1500 to 2500 J/kg range. Scattered thunderstorms are
ongoing along and to the south of the instability axis. The
strongest deep-layer shear is analyzed from Ohio into southern
Pennsylvania, which should be the favored corridor for supercell
development. Isolated large hail and severe gusts will be possible
with supercells. Multicells will also be capable of strong to severe
gusts.
Further west into the mid Mississippi Valley, a few strong to severe
storms will be possible near a pocket of moderate instability. Steep
low-level lapse rates will support a potential for isolated severe
gusts. Hail will also be possible.
...Northern High Plains...
Over the northern High Plains, water vapor imagery shows a mid-level
shortwave trough moving northeastward through the flow. Ahead of the
trough, a moist and unstable airmass is located across eastern
Montana and western North Dakota, where surface dewpoints are mostly
in the upper 50s and lower 60s F. Over this area, the RAP has MLCAPE
in the 2500 to 3500 J/kg range. Along the western edge of the
stronger instability, thunderstorms are expected to develop this
evening. The storms will move northeastward across northeastern
Montana and far northwestern North Dakota.
Forecast soundings to the northwest of Williston have 0-6 km shear
of 45 to 50 knots with 700-500 mb lapse rates approaching 9 C/km.
This will support the development of supercells with large hail.
Hailstones greater than 2 inches in diameter will be possible with
the more dominant storms. In addition, low-level lapse rates will be
very steep supporting severe wind gusts. A few gusts above 75 mph
will be possible, especially if a cold pool can organize.
...Southern Plains/Ark-La-Tex...
A mid-level shortwave trough is currently evident on water vapor
imagery over northwest Texas, with a moist and unstable airmass in
place from central and north Texas into southern Oklahoma. Scattered
thunderstorms are ongoing along the western edge of the stronger
instability along the I-35 corridor from the northern Texas Hill
Country into the Dallas/Fort Worth Metro. Steep lapse rates and
moderate deep-layer shear will continue to support an isolated
wind-damage and hail threat for a couple more hours this evening.
Further east into the Ark-La-Tex, scattered storms are ongoing from
far eastern Oklahoma into far western Arkansas. These storms are
located along the northern edge of moderate instability, where the
RAP has MLCAPE around 2000 J/kg. Forecast soundings near Fort Smith
early this evening have 0-3 km storm-relative helicity around 200
m2/s2 suggesting an isolated tornado threat will exist. The tornado
threat should persist for a couple more hours.
..Broyles.. 06/07/2026
Read more
SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0456 PM CDT Sat Jun 06 2026
Valid 081200Z - 141200Z
The initial upper-level trough dominating the western CONUS will
move through southern Canada and the Northern Rockies, dragging a
weak cold front across the Great Basin and nearby regions. The
atmosphere transitions into a brief holding pattern as this system
departs and another trough arrives over the Pacific Northwest.
Broad, persistent southwest winds will continue over across the
Southwest and the Great Basin as the next, less amplified trough
moves through the upper level flow. Behind the second trough,
ridging is modeled to build in over the west coast. This would raise
temperatures back above normal for much of the Pacific Northwest and
relax pressure gradients (weaken winds) as next weekend approaches.
...Day 3/Monday and Day 4/Tuesday...
Clear skies and deep atmospheric mixing will drive strong afternoon
warming, dropping relative humidity down to 5 to 15 percent yet
again over much of the southern Great Basin, Southwest, and nearby
Rocky Mountain area. This dry air will overlap with localized winds
gusting between 15 and 25 mph. 70% probabilities for Critical fire
weather remains firmly in place across southern UT and northern AZ,
expanding slightly into western CO and southern WY. Surrounding
areas, including southeastern NV, central WY, and portions of
southern CA and AZ face a 40% likelihood of critical wind/RH
conditions where grass, brush, and timber are dry and receptive to
fire. Additionally, thunderstorms amid a dry sub-cloud layer,
limited precipitable water, and fast moving storm motion in portions
of southeast WY, far western NE, and northeast CO will lead to a 10%
chance of Isolated Dry Thunder. The threat is very similar once
again on Day 4/Tuesday, but winds appear to be a bit more widespread
over the Front Range and portions of the central/northern High
Plains. This is particularly concerning given the possibility of dry
lightning in this same area preceding this increased wind/RH threat.
...Day 5/Wednesday through Day 7/Friday...
As the aforementioned second broader trough spreads moves across the
northern CONUS, the combination of highest winds and lowest RHs will
be focused slightly farther south over portions of the southern
Great Basin and northern Southwest on Day 5/Wednesday through Day
7/Friday. The latest model consensus maintains the best potential
for potential critical conditions over northern AZ and NM.
..Stearns.. 06/06/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
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