RSS Mesoscale Discussions from Storm Prediction Center
WW 360 SEVERE TSTM NE 210040Z - 210600Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 360
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
740 PM CDT Sat Jun 20 2026
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of
Western into Central Nebraska
* Effective this Saturday night and Sunday morning from 740 PM
until 100 AM CDT.
* Primary threats include...
Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2
inches in diameter possible
Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible
SUMMARY...Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms are forecast to
pose a risk for large hail and severe gusts through the late
evening. A couple of elevated supercells and a thunderstorm band
moving from west to east will be the primary storm modes with this
activity.
The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 60
statute miles east and west of a line from 70 miles north northwest
of Mullen NE to 65 miles south southwest of Mullen NE. For a
complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline
update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU0).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.
&&
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 356...WW 357...WW
358...WW 359...
AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A
few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 450. Mean storm motion vector
27025.
...Smith
Read more
WW 359 SEVERE TSTM KS NE 210020Z - 210800Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 359
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
720 PM CDT Sat Jun 20 2026
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of
Central into Northern Kansas
South-Central Nebraska
* Effective this Saturday night and Sunday morning from 720 PM
until 300 AM CDT.
* Primary threats include...
Scattered damaging winds and isolated significant gusts to 80
mph likely
Isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter possible
A tornado or two possible
SUMMARY...Clusters of severe thunderstorms are forecast to move into
the Watch area this evening and continue into the overnight. Severe
gusts will likely accompany the more intense thunderstorms and their
outflow along the leading gust front. Severe gusts ranging from 60
to 80 mph are possible. Large hail may also occur with the stronger
thunderstorm cores. As the low-level jet intensifies this evening
and a linear cluster evolves, a tornado or two is possible that
would be embedded within the squall line.
The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 85
statute miles east and west of a line from 45 miles east northeast
of Hastings NE to 25 miles west southwest of Hutchinson KS. For a
complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline
update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU9).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.
&&
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 356...WW 357...WW 358...
AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 70 knots. A
few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector
28030.
...Smith
Read more
WW 358 SEVERE TSTM CO KS 202035Z - 210300Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 358
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
335 PM CDT Sat Jun 20 2026
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of
Southeast Colorado
Southwest Kansas
* Effective this Saturday afternoon and evening from 335 PM until
1000 PM CDT.
* Primary threats include...
Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 3
inches in diameter likely
Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely
A tornado or two possible
SUMMARY...Thunderstorms will develop over southeast Colorado this
afternoon and spread eastward into southwest Kansas. A hot and
humid air mass is present, favorable for severe storms capable of
damaging winds and large hail. A tornado or two cannot be ruled
out.
The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 60
statute miles north and south of a line from 40 miles west southwest
of Lamar CO to 40 miles northeast of Dodge City KS. For a complete
depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update
(WOUS64 KWNS WOU8).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.
&&
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 356...WW 357...
AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
3 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A
few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector
27030.
...Hart
Read more
WW 357 TORNADO CO KS NE 201950Z - 210300Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Tornado Watch Number 357
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
150 PM MDT Sat Jun 20 2026
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Tornado Watch for portions of
Northeast Colorado
Northwest Kansas
Southern Nebraska Panhandle
* Effective this Saturday afternoon and evening from 150 PM until
900 PM MDT.
* Primary threats include...
A couple tornadoes possible
Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 3
inches in diameter likely
Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely
SUMMARY...Thunderstorms will rapidly intensify along a boundary from
northeast Colorado into southwest Nebraska this afternoon.
Supercells capable of very large hail, damaging winds, and a few
tornadoes are possible.
The tornado watch area is approximately along and 70 statute miles
north and south of a line from 20 miles west northwest of Akron CO
to 45 miles southeast of Mccook NE. For a complete depiction of the
watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU7).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for
tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch
area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for
threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements
and possible warnings.
&&
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 356...
AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail
surface and aloft to 3 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind
gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 550. Mean
storm motion vector 27030.
...Hart
Read more
WW 356 SEVERE TSTM NE SD WY 201925Z - 210300Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 356
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
125 PM MDT Sat Jun 20 2026
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of
Nebraska Panhandle
Southwest South Dakota
Central and Eastern Wyoming
* Effective this Saturday afternoon and evening from 125 PM until
900 PM MDT.
* Primary threats include...
Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely
Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2
inches in diameter possible
A tornado or two possible
SUMMARY...Clusters of high-based thunderstorms will affect much of
central Wyoming this afternoon, capable of locally damaging wind
gusts. Other supercell storms capable of large hail and damaging
winds will be a concern over eastern Wyoming and the Nebraska
Panhandle later this afternoon.
The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 85
statute miles north and south of a line from 15 miles west southwest
of Lander WY to 40 miles east northeast of Scottsbluff NE. For a
complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline
update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU6).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.
&&
AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A
few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector
26030.
...Hart
Read more
WW 0360 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 360
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..SQUITIERI..06/21/26
ATTN...WFO...LBF...
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 360
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
NEC005-031-049-069-075-091-101-111-113-117-161-171-210240-
NE
. NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ARTHUR CHERRY DEUEL
GARDEN GRANT HOOKER
KEITH LINCOLN LOGAN
MCPHERSON SHERIDAN THOMAS
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
Read more
WW 0359 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 359
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..SQUITIERI..06/21/26
ATTN...WFO...ICT...TOP...DDC...GID...OAX...
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 359
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
KSC009-017-027-029-041-047-053-061-079-089-105-113-115-117-123-
127-141-143-145-147-149-155-157-159-161-163-167-169-183-185-197-
201-210240-
KS
. KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BARTON CHASE CLAY
CLOUD DICKINSON EDWARDS
ELLSWORTH GEARY HARVEY
JEWELL LINCOLN MCPHERSON
MARION MARSHALL MITCHELL
MORRIS OSBORNE OTTAWA
PAWNEE PHILLIPS POTTAWATOMIE
RENO REPUBLIC RICE
RILEY ROOKS RUSSELL
SALINE SMITH STAFFORD
WABAUNSEE WASHINGTON
NEC001-019-035-059-061-079-081-095-099-129-169-181-210240-
NE
. NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ADAMS BUFFALO CLAY
Read more
WW 0358 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 358
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 WSW EHA
TO 20 S ITR.
..SQUITIERI..06/21/26
ATTN...WFO...PUB...DDC...GLD...
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 358
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
KSC051-055-057-067-069-071-075-081-083-093-101-119-129-135-165-
171-175-187-189-195-203-210140-
KS
. KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ELLIS FINNEY FORD
GRANT GRAY GREELEY
HAMILTON HASKELL HODGEMAN
KEARNY LANE MEADE
MORTON NESS RUSH
SCOTT SEWARD STANTON
STEVENS TREGO WICHITA
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
Read more
WW 0357 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 357
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SSW ITR
TO 10 N GLD TO 35 N HLC.
..SQUITIERI..06/21/26
ATTN...WFO...GLD...BOU...CYS...LBF...
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 357
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
COC017-210140-
CO
. COLORADO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CHEYENNE
KSC063-065-109-137-179-181-193-199-210140-
KS
. KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
GOVE GRAHAM LOGAN
NORTON SHERIDAN SHERMAN
THOMAS WALLACE
NEC007-033-105-123-210140-
NE
. NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BANNER CHEYENNE KIMBALL
MORRILL
Read more
WW 0356 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 356
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1217
..SQUITIERI..06/21/26
ATTN...WFO...CYS...UNR...RIW...
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 356
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
NEC013-045-157-165-210140-
NE
. NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BOX BUTTE DAWES SCOTTS BLUFF
SIOUX
SDC047-210140-
SD
. SOUTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
FALL RIVER
WYC001-015-021-045-210140-
WY
. WYOMING COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ALBANY GOSHEN LARAMIE
WESTON
Read more
MD 1219 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 358...359... FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN INTO CENTRAL KANSAS
Mesoscale Discussion 1219
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0829 PM CDT Sat Jun 20 2026
Areas affected...portions of western into central Kansas
Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 358...359...
Valid 210129Z - 210300Z
The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 358, 359
continues.
SUMMARY...Severe wind gusts exceeding 75 mph will remain a concern
over the next few hours with a south-southeastward progressing MCS.
DISCUSSION...A cold-pool-driven MCS continues to propagate to the
east-southeast across western KS, with a history of 60-100 mph wind
gusts. The DDC 00Z observed sounding, which is well ahead of the
MCS, depicts an elongated hodograph and over 50 kts of effective
bulk shear, which should aid ongoing storms to sustain a bowing MCS
structure. However, while the 00Z observed sounding shows 8.5+ C/km
mid-level lapse rates preceding the MCS, a relatively
neutral/slightly stable 850-700 mb layer may eventually encourage a
weakening trend in the next few hours given nocturnal cooling. This
trend is also suggested by the latest HRRR deterministic and WoFs
ensemble runs. Until then though, severe gusts (a few potentially
exceeding 75 mph) remain possible through at least 04Z.
..Squitieri.. 06/21/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...TOP...ICT...GID...DDC...GLD...PUB...
LAT...LON 38310205 38900009 39259896 39229818 38929748 38629729
38239752 37949826 37699918 37630004 37650065 37780181
38310205
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...75-90 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN
Read more
MD 1218 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 360... FOR PORTIONS OF NEBRASKA SANDHILLS
Mesoscale Discussion 1218
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0753 PM CDT Sat Jun 20 2026
Areas affected...portions of Nebraska Sandhills
Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 360...
Valid 210053Z - 210230Z
The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 360
continues.
SUMMARY...An elevated supercell developed across portions of the
Nebraska Sandhills this evening. Large hail and damaging wind will
be possible as this storm moves east. Additional thunderstorms may
also develop later this evening and be capable of large hail and
damaging winds as well.
DISCUSSION...An isolated supercell has developed across the Nebraska
Sandhills. This eastward moving storm has quickly intensified, with
MRMS hail estimates approaching 2".
The observed 00Z sounding from North Platte, NE, indicates a
strongly sheared and modestly unstable environment across the
region. Low-levels are largely stable, with a 0-3 kilometer lapse
rate of 4 C/km beneath a strong inversion just below 700 millibars.
Thus, the ongoing supercell is elevated and likely rooted at or
slightly above this inversion. That said, parcels originating at
this level are unstable, with MUCAPE around 1200 J/kg and effective
layer shear in excess of 50 knots. This environment should support
continued hail across the area this evening. Additionally, DCAPE
from the sounding is around 1000 J/kg so isolated damaging wind
gusts are also possible.
With continued warm-air advection atop this stable boundary layer,
additional thunderstorms may be possible later this evening.
Additionally, a cluster of thunderstorms will move east out of
Wyoming and the Nebraska panhandle later this evening. Given the
overall environment, large hail and damaging winds would be possible
with those storms as well.
Recently issued Severe Thunderstorm Watch #360 was issued to address
these threats.
..Marsh/Smith.. 06/21/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...GID...LBF...UNR...CYS...
LAT...LON 42970277 43010026 40710021 40660124 40990127 41010256
41970269 42970277
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN
Read more
MD 1217 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 356... FOR EASTERN WYOMING...WESTERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE...SOUTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA...AND FAR SOUTHEAST MONTANA
Mesoscale Discussion 1217
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0727 PM CDT Sat Jun 20 2026
Areas affected...eastern Wyoming...western Nebraska
Panhandle...southwest South Dakota...and far southeast Montana
Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 356...
Valid 210027Z - 210200Z
The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 356
continues.
SUMMARY...Thunderstorms with a history of measured severe winds will
weaken as the move northeast this evening. Although a few severe
wind gusts will be possible in the near term, the overall wind
threat will weaken with time. A new watch is currently not
anticipated.
DISCUSSION...An arc of convection across eastern Wyoming continues
to fan out as it moves east across the High Plains. These storms
have had a history of producing significant winds, with multiple
reports of winds in excess of 80 mph across Converse and Wright
counties.
The non-convectively modified airmass across eastern Wyoming
features steep low-to-mid-level lapse rates that have supported
downward momentum transfer and the subsequent strong winds as
convection moves into them. However, as the storms move farther
north and east, the airmass becomes increasingly unfavorable for
severe gusts as instability quickly decreases and low-level lapse
rates considerably weaken.
Given the ongoing storms and their recent history, the potential for
isolated severe wind gusts will continue in the near term. However,
longer-term, the increasingly unfavorable environment should limit
downward momentum transfer and the overall severe potential. As
such, a downstream severe thunderstorm watch is currently not
anticipated.
..Marsh.. 06/21/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...LBF...UNR...CYS...BYZ...RIW...
LAT...LON 41600506 43500540 44230602 45110534 45200415 43490242
41570316 41600506
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN
Read more
MD 1215 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR EASTERN NEBRASKA AND NORTH-CENTRAL INTO NORTHEAST KANSAS
Mesoscale Discussion 1215
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0645 PM CDT Sat Jun 20 2026
Areas affected...eastern Nebraska and north-central into northeast
Kansas
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible
Valid 202345Z - 210145Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent
SUMMARY...Thunderstorms continue this evening across eastern
Nebraska. These storms will pose the potential for gusty
strong-to-severe winds and hail. The area is being monitored for a
possible watch.
DISCUSSION...Clusters of elevated thunderstorms continue to develop
this afternoon across portions of eastern Nebraska as southwesterly
moist warm-air advection in the 850-700 millibar layer continues
into the region. Strongly veering-with-height wind profiles have
resulted in effective-layer shear around 50 knots across the region,
which has yielded thunderstorm organization, with overall storm
motion to the southeast given the northwesterly mid-to-upper-level
flow.
Thermodynamically, the continued convection across eastern Nebraska
is reinforcing a northwest-to-southeast surface boundary, which is
effectively serving as a instability gradient. To the southwest of
this boundary, MUCAPE between 2500-3000 J/kg exists, with MUCAPE
quickly dropping off to less than 500 J/kg to the northeast.
Two main areas to monitor have emerged over the past hour. The first
is across southeast Nebraska where an elevated supercell has
produced hail around 1" per a local storm report from WFO Omaha.
This storm should continue to move east-southeast toward the greater
Kansas City Metro.
A secondary area is to the northwest, where several thunderstorms
have organized into an elevated linear MCS that has produced reports
of 60-70 mph wind gusts. This MCS will continue to track southeast.
The region will be monitored for signs that the severe potential is
evolving from largely independent, isolated occurrences to a more
organized, sustained threat. If this evolution occurs, a watch may
be necessary.
..Marsh/Smith.. 06/20/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...EAX...OAX...TOP...GID...LBF...
LAT...LON 40899948 42039861 40089475 39299487 39329604 40899948
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN
Read more
SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0759 PM CDT Sat Jun 20 2026
Valid 210100Z - 211200Z
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
KANSAS...
...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms remain likely across parts of the central
Plains this evening into late tonight. Large hail, severe winds
(some 75+ mph), and a few tornadoes are possible.
...Central Plains...
An intense supercell cluster over northwest KS is expected to grow
at least modestly upscale with time this evening, and spread
east-southeastward across parts of northern/central KS, while more
isolated supercells may evolve across southwest KS and move toward
south-central KS through at least dusk. MLCAPE of near/above 2000
J/kg and effective shear of 50+ kt will continue to support
organized storms with large hail (potentially 2+ inches in diameter
with any sustained supercells), severe wind gusts (possibly 75+
mph), and some tornado potential, especially with storms that
persist into richer low-level moisture across central/eastern KS.
Storm evolution remains somewhat uncertain overnight into eastern KS
and western MO, but a storm cluster and possible MCS may continue
through the end of the period, with severe-wind potential, and some
hail and tornado threat with any embedded supercells.
Farther northeast, elevated supercells may continue to pose a threat
of hail and isolated strong to severe gusts from southeast NE into
northeast KS through dusk. See MCD 1215 for more information.
To the west, a cluster of storms with a history of measured severe
gusts is moving into parts of southwest SD and the NE Panhandle.
Increasing CINH with time and eastward extent should result in a
gradual weakening trend, though some severe threat will remain
possible into mid/late evening across the NE Sand Hills region. See
MCD 1218 for more information.
Some threat for isolated supercells may persist farther south into
northeast CO through dusk, with a threat of hail. Other remnant
high-based convection may pose a threat of localized severe gusts
through dusk across parts of western/central WY.
..Dean.. 06/21/2026
Read more
SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0348 PM CDT Sat Jun 20 2026
Valid 221200Z - 281200Z
...Synopsis...
To start next week, the western states will be under a brief period
of zonal flow aloft, though embedded shortwave troughs will provide
opportunity for breezy surface winds, before ridging returns to the
Intermountain West. This pattern will reinforce warmer-than-normal
and dry conditions, continuing to accelerate fuel desiccation across
the region. A high centered near the AZ/NM borders will persist long
enough that moisture will begin to advect north and eastward over
the larger Four Corners region. Conversely, expansive troughing will
dominate the Northeast, sending periodic cold fronts and widespread
precipitation across the eastern United States to suppress regional
fire threats there. The consensus among the latest long-term
forecast guidance is that this pattern will be temporary with the
Southwest high expected to weaken by late next week. As this high
breaks down, additional fire weather concerns will be possible late
next week.
...Southwest and southern Great Basin...
...Day 4/Tuesday...
As high pressure builds over the Southwest, hot and dry surface
conditions will promote deep boundary layer mixing, contributing to
increased westerly surface winds. As such, an area of 40 percent
probability of Critical wind/RH continues over portions of northern
AZ and far southern UT.
...Day 5/Wednesday and Day 6/Thursday...
Persistent high pressure over the Southwest will eventually lead to
increasing moisture wrapped in from the Gulf of California. It
appears that this moisture will begin to reach eastern AZ and
western NM followed by UT and CO mid-next-week. As is typical with
this pattern, hot and dry air at the surface will lag increasing
moisture aloft, leading to high-based thunderstorms. Expect
adjustments in time/space with future forecast issuances as the
timing and placement of this potential moisture becomes more clear.
The consensus among the latest mid-term forecast guidance is that
this pattern will be temporary with the Southwest high expected to
weaken by late next week.
..Stearns.. 06/20/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
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