SPC - No watches are valid as of Sat Feb 7 05:37:02 UTC 2026

No watches are valid as of Sat Feb  7 05:37:02 UTC 2026.

SPC MD 70

MD 0070 CONCERNING HEAVY SNOW FOR PARTS OF EASTERN WEST VIRGINIA AND ADJACENT PORTIONS OF WESTERN MARYLAND/PENNSYLVANIA

Mesoscale Discussion 0070
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0836 PM CST Fri Feb 06 2026

Areas affected...parts of eastern West Virginia and adjacent
portions of western Maryland/Pennsylvania

Concerning...Heavy snow 

Valid 070236Z - 070630Z

SUMMARY...A period of moderate to heavy snow (at rates occasionally
up to 1+ inches per hour) and strengthening surface gusts to 30-40+
kt may develop by Midnight to 1 AM EST, accompanied by considerable
blowing and drifting of snow and occasionally sharply reduced
visibilities.

DISCUSSION...Mostly light to moderate snow overspreading the upper
Ohio Valley toward the western Allegheny Plateau is being supported
by forcing for ascent downstream of a vigorous short wave trough of
Arctic origins, which is forecast to continue digging across and
south-southeast of the lower Great Lakes region late this evening. 
This is accompanied by a reinforcing cold front, which Rapid Refresh
indicates will begin overspreading the western slopes of the
Alleghenies during the 04-07Z time frame.  

As this occurs, low-level flow is likely to veer to an increasing
northwesterly upslope component across the higher terrain,
contributing to strengthening upward vertical motion.  Forecast
soundings indicate that this lift, coupled with low-level cold
advection, will contribute to saturating profiles with steepening
lapse rates.  It appears that this may become supportive of the
development of very weak CAPE through a layer between 850-700 mb, as
temperatures within this layer cool to around and below -15 C.   

Despite rather low precipitable water content falling below .20
inches, and the low residence height (higher pressure) of the
dendritic growth zone, the strong orographically enhanced low-level
lift and convective component may compensate, and support a period
of moderate to occasionally heavy snow rates on the order of .5-1+
inches per hour.  This is also likely to coincide with downward
mixing of strengthening low-level wind fields which may support
30-40 kt surface gusts, contributing to considerable drifting and
occasional sharply reduced visibilities.

..Kerr.. 02/07/2026

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CTP...LWX...RNK...PBZ...RLX...

LAT...LON   40027941 39447926 38717968 38158040 38448069 38578056
            39128016 39627996 40027941 

SPC Feb 7, 2026 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
      
Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1130 PM CST Fri Feb 06 2026

Valid 071200Z - 081200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected today through tonight.

...AZ/NM...
A low-latitude shortwave trough should drift southeastward, west of 
Baja CA. A plume of eastern Pacific mid-level moisture within a weak
warm conveyor should spread into parts of far southeast AZ later
this morning, shifting east across southern NM through the
afternoon. This might yield minimal elevated buoyancy (MUCAPE below
100 J/kg) within predominately marginal temperatures for charge
separation. As such, thunder probabilities for this regime appear to
be below 10 percent.

In its wake, isolated thunderstorms should be focused over southeast
AZ this afternoon as meager surface-based buoyancy (MLCAPE below 500
J/kg) develops. Large-scale ascent appears nebulous in the wake of
the leading warm advection plume, but sufficient orographic lift
should exist to support a few cells. Guidance does differ on the
degree of storm coverage though, with the 00Z RRFS/ECMWF on the more
aggressive spectrum.

..Grams.. 02/07/2026


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SPC Feb 7, 2026 0700 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
      
Day 2 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1132 PM CST Fri Feb 06 2026

Valid 081200Z - 091200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Sunday.

...AZ...

Forecast guidance has trended further south with a closed upper low
and attendant shortwave trough moving over northwest Mexico on
Sunday. As a result, forecast thermodynamic profiles show a somewhat
drier profile, especially in the midlevels. While cooling aloft will
support steepening midlevel lapse rates and development of minor
elevated instability, thunderstorm potential appears to be somewhat
lower compared to this time yesterday. Will maintain the 10 percent
general thunderstorm area across southeast AZ for now, but this may
be removed in subsequent outlooks if current trends are maintained. 

Elsewhere, dry and stable conditions will preclude thunderstorm
activity.

..Leitman.. 02/07/2026


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