RSS Mesoscale Discussions from Storm Prediction Center
No watches are valid as of Sat May 23 10:55:02 UTC 2026.
No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Sat May 23 10:55:02 UTC 2026.
SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0217 AM CDT Sat May 23 2026
Valid 251200Z - 261200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Scattered thunderstorms will be possible from portions of the
Southwest to the central/southern High Plains and across the
southern Ohio Valley and the Southeast. Additional shower and
thunderstorm activity will be possible across the Pacific Northwest.
Severe storms are generally not expected.
On D3/Monday, guidance suggests that height rises will begin across
the central US as a high amplitude ridge builds in from the west. An
upper level low will begin to deepen and move inland across the
Pacific Northwest through the period. Though instability will be
minimal, cooling temperatures aloft with the upper low may promote a
few thunderstorms towards the end of the period.
Slow moisture return will continue across much of the Plains into
the Midwest, with areas of widely scattered areas of thunderstorms
possible across portions of the Southwest to the southern/central
High Plains and from the southern Ohio Valley into the Southeast. A
few strong to marginally severe storms will be possible from the
Plains to the Southeast where better instability resides, but
generally weak flow and subsidence aloft will keep organized storm
potential low.
..Thornton.. 05/23/2026
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Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0353 AM CDT Sat May 23 2026
Valid 261200Z - 311200Z
...DISCUSSION...
A trough will deepen and shift eastward across the Pacific Northwest
D4/Tuesday-D5/Wednesday. As the upper low slowly shifts eastward,
stronger flow will overspread the Intermountain West into the
Northern Rockies which will result in strengthening lee troughing
across the central/northern Plains. Moisture advection will spread
northward with the strengthening southerly flow across the
central/northern Plains. Severe storms may occur each day across
some portion of the northern and northern/central High Plains. In
addition, strengthening southern stream flow may bring stronger
storms across the Sierra Madre which may bring severe potential into
portions of far southern Texas. For now, confidence in exact
corridors of greater severe potential remains low.
By D6/Thursday-D8/Saturday, guidance suggests the western low
becomes cut off and slowly wobbles towards the Great Basin before
becoming absorbed back into the northern stream, likely due to the
high amplitude ridging across the central. Some severe potential may
extend into the eastern US as a cold front shifts southward as flow
enhances in the trough across Quebec in the D6-D7 period.
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