RSS Mesoscale Discussions from Storm Prediction Center
No watches are valid as of Tue Jul 7 18:55:02 UTC 2026.
MD 1533 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR EASTERN TEXAS INTO CENTRAL LOUISIANA
Mesoscale Discussion 1533
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1242 PM CDT Tue Jul 07 2026
Areas affected...Eastern Texas into central Louisiana
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 071742Z - 071915Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent
SUMMARY...A few strong to severe gusts may occur this afternoon. The
severe threat should remain isolated overall, so a WW issuance is
not currently anticipated.
DISCUSSION...MRMS mosaic radar and NLDN lightning data both show a
re-intensification of a thunderstorm cluster, which is gradually
organizing into a southward-sagging MCS structure. The southwest
flank of this MCS is beginning to interact with a relatively
pristine airmass preceding a stalled outflow boundary remnant from
earlier convection. Here, surface temperatures are exceeding 90 F
amid low 70s F dewpoints, yielding over 2500 J/kg MLCAPE. While
deep-layer shear is weak, the aforementioned buoyancy should support
wet downbursts capable of damaging gusts, especially with cold pool
mergers along the leading line. Given poor vertical wind shear, the
severe threat should be isolated, with a WW issuance not currently
expected.
..Squitieri/Hart.. 07/07/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...LCH...SHV...HGX...FWD...
LAT...LON 30239356 30529454 31079579 31669678 32029708 32209706
32359689 32529658 32719607 32869563 32759494 32479414
32199355 31799266 31489233 31089223 30839239 30419279
30239356
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
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SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook CORR 1
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1118 AM CDT Tue Jul 07 2026
Valid 071630Z - 081200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE NORTHERN
HIGH PLAINS INTO MINNESOTA....
CORRECTED FOR THUNDER LINES
...SUMMARY...
Widely scattered to scattered severe storms capable of large hail
and severe wind gusts are possible from the northern High Plains
into parts of the Upper Midwest today into tonight. Isolated severe
storms capable of mainly damaging wind gusts are possible this
afternoon and evening from the southern Mid-Atlantic into the
Carolinas, the Sabine River Valley, parts of the Great Basin, and
southeast Arizona.
...Dakotas/MN...
A broad upper ridge is present today over much of the Rockies and
Plains states, with moderately strong winds aloft topping the ridge
over the Dakotas. A surface boundary will lift slightly northward
and extend from the Black Hills region into western MN by evening,
with a very unstable air mass expected to the south. Thunderstorms
are expected to develop across southeast MT/eastern WY by late
afternoon ahead of an approaching shortwave trough. These storms
will intensify as they build into the greater moisture/instability
in place across SD. Sufficient deep-layer shear and convergence near
the boundary will promote supercell storms capable of large hail and
damaging wind gusts. If sufficient organization can occur with
these storms, there is some risk of a linear MCS tracking eastward
through the evening across northern SD/southern ND into western MN
with a risk of damaging winds.
Ongoing storms over northeast SD may also persist, along with new
development this afternoon along the boundary. These storms could
also pose a risk of damaging winds and hail.
...VA/NC...
Visible satellite imagery shows substantial cloud cover over
northern/central VA, but mostly clear skies from southern VA into
NC. Areas of strong heating will again be at risk of strong storms
producing occasional damaging wind gusts this afternoon.
...TX/LA...
Strong afternoon thunderstorms are possible again this afternoon in
vicinity of a weak upper trough over the ArkLaTex region. Locally
damaging wind gusts are the main risk.
..Hart/Squitieri.. 07/07/2026
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SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1136 AM CDT Tue Jul 07 2026
Valid 081200Z - 091200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE
CENTRAL PLAINS...AND UPPER MIDWEST...
...SUMMARY...
Clusters of strong thunderstorms with potential to produce severe
hail and wind may evolve across parts of the Upper Midwest into
central Great Plains Wednesday through Wednesday night.
...MN...WI...IA...
As the tail end of a shortwave trough sweeps across the region,
storms will likely be ongoing Wed morning near and north of a
quasi-stationary front extending from southern MN into northern WI
and MI, in an area of veered 850 mb winds providing a feed of
elevated instability. This activity should transition to surface
based during the day as heating occurs to the south of the boundary,
with area of damaging wind potential.
Additional storms likely to develop during the afternoon farther
southwest along the front, where moderate instability and marginal
shear will exist. Some clusters of storms may produce damaging wind
gusts, and isolated marginal hail may occur.
...Central Plains...
Weak height falls may occur late in the day into the northern and
central Plains as a weak disturbance moves across the northern
Rockies. Low pressure is likely to develop into western KS, with
weak lee troughing into eastern WY. Relatively cool midlevel
temperatures, sufficient moisture and east/northeast surface winds
suggest a corridor of afternoon storms over the from eastern WY into
CO, with 30 kt effective shear supporting areas of hail and locally
damaging gusts. Some of this activity may cluster and move into NE
and KS overnight, possibly linking with other storms as they
propagate southwestward along the boundary in eastern to southern
NE. Area of damaging wind gusts appear most likely.
..Jewell.. 07/07/2026
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SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0153 PM CDT Tue Jul 07 2026
Valid 091200Z - 101200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...
...SUMMARY...
Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms may impact portions of the
central Great Plains through middle Mississippi Valley and Ohio
Valleys, and over parts of the Mid Atlantic Thursday through
Thursday night.
...Central Plains...
Modest 20-30 kt westerlies will exist across the High Plains, with
the stronger wind speeds from MT into ND. Temperatures aloft will
remain seasonably cool with -8 to -10 C from CO into MT. Storms are
forecast to develop over eastern WY and CO after 21Z near the Front
Range where heating will be strong, and spread across western NE,
KS, and the OK Panhandle late. An MCS may develop into KS, where
stronger instability will persist. Large hail appears probable with
the initial activity, before transitioning to mainly damaging wind.
The steep lapse rates aloft will support robust storms propagating
into the backed boundary layer easterlies.
...MO eastward across IL, IN, KY...
Persistent west to southwest winds near 850 mb will maintain a
theta-e plume as a weak upper trough moves across the region. Early
day storms are possible moving out of KS, and some reorganization is
possible as the air mass destabilizes with locally damaging gusts.
Afternoon activity is also expected from lower MI into northern IL,
and this may increase in coverage overnight across IL and IN,
perhaps into KY. Shear will be marginal in all areas, with a moist
and unstable air mass. Predictability is low for this setup, but a
large area of at least isolated severe gust potential is evident.
...Parts of the Mid Atlantic...
A low-amplitude feature aloft with 35 kt midlevel winds is forecast
to move across the Appalachians and into VA/NC area during the day.
Meanwhile, a surface trough will deepen during the afternoon with a
moist air mass contributing to 1500-2000 J/kg MUCAPE. The increased
winds and deep shear may aid storm longevity somewhat, with cells or
clusters developing and moving quickly southeast across the area.
Midlevel lapse rates are forecast to remain poor, but storms
coinciding with peak heating may yield a few severe wind gusts.
..Jewell.. 07/07/2026
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SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1103 AM CDT Tue Jul 07 2026
Valid 071700Z - 081200Z
...Morning Update...
The Elevated and Isolated Dry Thunderstorm risk areas were slightly
adjusted based on the latest observations and forecast guidance.
High resolution guidance depicts greater instability enveloping the
IsoDryT region today as compared to yesterday, indicating an
increased threat for more widespread thunderstorm development this
afternoon. Although, residual smoke and morning mid/high level cloud
cover could inhibit thunderstorm coverage across the central CO
Rockies. 00z soundings from GJT, SLC, LKN, and BOI observed a range
of PWAT values at 0.7-0.95", higher than what yesterday's 12/18z
model guidance anticipated. As a result, thunderstorms will likely
be a wet/dry mix this afternoon where forecast soundings depict
slower storm motions along the West Slope; however, a very dry
boundary layer (especially at lower elevations) will continue to
favor evaporation, thus less precipitation efficiency. The potential
for deep pyroconvection remains in the vicinity of the IsoDryT area
on active large fires, as shown by the Babylon Fire yesterday
afternoon, which produced a pyroCb pulse in a similar atmospheric
environment. See the previous discussion for more information.
..Elizalde-Garcia.. 07/07/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1259 AM CDT Tue Jul 07 2026/
...Synopsis...
The upper-level high will begin to extend and shift westward from
the Southwest to coastal southern California. Upper-level heights
will rise across much of the West through the day, but an
upper-level trough will approach the Pacific Northwest coast late in
the period. The onshore surface pressure gradient across the
Cascades will strengthen with lee troughing to the east of the
Cascades and extending down along the northern Sierra. A thermal
trough will extend out of the Desert Southwest into the central
Great Basin.
Isolated to scattered mixed wet/dry thunderstorms will develop
across portions of the northern Great Basin and extend to the Four
Corners region. PWAT values of 0.5-0.9" associated with mostly
mid-level moisture across the region along with a deep, well mixed
boundary layer and storm motions of 15-25 knots will help limit
precipitation. A weak mid-level disturbance is forecast to move
across portions of the Great Basin, which will help increase storm
development and organization and lead to potentially severe outflow
winds.
Wetter storms are likely, especially from central/northeast Oregon
extending into northern Utah, but the IsoDryT area was maintained
given the likelihood of mixed wet/dry thunderstorms, receptive
fuels, and likely scattered thunderstorm coverage. Smoke in Colorado
into the Four Corners could inhibit thunderstorm development and
will be monitored for the Day 1 update. Isolated high-based
thunderstorms are possible overnight in portions of eastern
Washington, but too much forecast uncertainty exists to include an
additional IsoDryT area.
Westerly sustained winds of 12-20 mph gusting 20-30 mph amid minimum
RH of 12-25% are likely in portions of the Cascades Gaps onto the
Columbia Basin and from south-central Oregon extending south along
the Sierra Front. Southwest sustained winds of 12-20 mph gusting
20-30 mph amid minimum RH of 5-15% are expected across the southern
Great Basin/vicinity. These conditions will be more pronounced along
thermal trough extensions and under slightly stronger mid-level flow
(20-30 knots).
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
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