RSS Mesoscale Discussions from Storm Prediction Center
WW 41 TORNADO IL IN KY OH 111020Z - 111600Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Tornado Watch Number 41
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
620 AM EDT Wed Mar 11 2026
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Tornado Watch for portions of
East-Central and Southeast Illinois
Central and Southern Indiana
Far Northern Kentucky
Western Ohio
* Effective this Wednesday morning from 620 AM until NOON EDT.
* Primary threats include...
A couple tornadoes possible
Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely
Isolated large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible
SUMMARY...Thunderstorm coverage is expected to increase over the
next few both within and ahead of a convective line approaching from
the west. A warm, moist, and unstable airmass is in place across
much of the Ohio Valley, with very strong low-level shear in places
as well. These environmental conditions will support strong to
severe thunderstorms capable of all severe hazards, including
tornadoes.
The tornado watch area is approximately along and 75 statute miles
north and south of a line from 10 miles south of Salem IL to 25
miles east northeast of Dayton OH. For a complete depiction of the
watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU1).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for
tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch
area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for
threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements
and possible warnings.
&&
AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail
surface and aloft to 1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind
gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean
storm motion vector 24035.
...Mosier
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WW 0041 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 41
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 W MVN TO
20 WSW BMG TO 15 WNW IND TO 20 N IND TO 45 WSW FWA.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0212
..DEAN..03/11/26
ATTN...WFO...ILX...PAH...IWX...IND...LMK...ILN...
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 41
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
INC001-005-009-013-019-025-027-029-031-035-037-041-043-047-051-
053-055-057-059-061-065-071-075-077-079-081-083-093-095-097-101-
105-109-115-117-119-123-125-129-135-137-139-143-145-147-155-161-
163-173-175-177-179-111340-
IN
. INDIANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ADAMS BARTHOLOMEW BLACKFORD
BROWN CLARK CRAWFORD
DAVIESS DEARBORN DECATUR
DELAWARE DUBOIS FAYETTE
FLOYD FRANKLIN GIBSON
GRANT GREENE HAMILTON
HANCOCK HARRISON HENRY
JACKSON JAY JEFFERSON
JENNINGS JOHNSON KNOX
LAWRENCE MADISON MARION
MARTIN MONROE MORGAN
OHIO ORANGE OWEN
PERRY PIKE POSEY
RANDOLPH RIPLEY RUSH
SCOTT SHELBY SPENCER
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MD 0212 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 41... FOR PARTS OF CENTRAL/SOUTHERN IN...OH...NORTHERN KY
Mesoscale Discussion 0212
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0749 AM CDT Wed Mar 11 2026
Areas affected...Parts of central/southern IN...OH...northern KY
Concerning...Tornado Watch 41...
Valid 111249Z - 111415Z
The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 41 continues.
SUMMARY...The threat for damaging wind and perhaps a tornado or two
will expand eastward through the morning.
DISCUSSION...A loosely organized QLCS with a history of producing
occasional severe gusts and wind damage is moving across parts of
central/southern IN this morning. Very strong low-level flow (50-60
kt at 1 km AGL from the 12Z ILN sounding and regional VWPs) will
continue to support wind-damage potential with this QLCS, despite
the relatively shallow nature of the ongoing convection. Some
additional enhancement to ascent and low-level flow associated with
an MCV moving across southern IL may help to sustain a wind-damage
threat through the morning, as convection spreads toward eastern IN
and western OH. Low-level shear/SRH is also sufficient for some
tornado threat, especially if any semi-discrete convection can
mature along or ahead of the primary line. Local expansion of WW 41
and/or downstream watch issuance may eventually be needed, depending
on short-term convective trends.
In the wake of the morning convection, some recovery will be
possible near the remnant outflow later this morning into the
afternoon across parts of the Ohio Valley, which could result in
another round of severe potential.
..Dean/Mosier.. 03/11/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...PBZ...RLX...CLE...ILN...LMK...IWX...IND...PAH...
ILX...
LAT...LON 40198611 40748483 41098338 41158205 40608156 39508172
38908324 38078529 37708701 37778773 37878795 38378812
38988717 39178702 40198611
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN
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MD 0211 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR PARTS OF EAST TX INTO NORTHWEST LA AND SOUTHERN AR
Mesoscale Discussion 0211
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0713 AM CDT Wed Mar 11 2026
Areas affected...Parts of east TX into northwest LA and southern AR
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible
Valid 111213Z - 111415Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent
SUMMARY...Some threat for locally damaging wind and perhaps a
tornado may continue through the morning.
DISCUSSION...Convection has become better organized across parts of
southern AR this morning, with additional robust development noted
into parts of northwest LA and east TX. A general increase in storm
coverage is expected with time as a mid/upper-level shortwave trough
approaches the region from west TX. Some weakening and veering of
low-level flow has been noted in regional VWPs, but deep-layer shear
remains favorable, and seasonably rich low-level moisture will
continue to support moderate buoyancy in advance of an approaching
cold front.
The severe threat may tend to remain rather isolated in the short
term, though the strongest cells/clusters will be capable of
producing locally damaging wind and perhaps a tornado. A more
substantial increase in the coverage of the severe threat is
expected later today, in response to the approaching shortwave
trough.
..Dean/Mosier.. 03/11/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...MEG...JAN...LZK...LCH...SHV...HGX...CRP...EWX...
LAT...LON 33819108 31949264 30509388 29189596 28729680 28899701
29649682 30039639 31319511 33749244 34509213 34969137
34829080 34629053 33819108
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-130 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN
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SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0741 AM CDT Wed Mar 11 2026
Valid 111300Z - 121200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ACROSS THE TENNESSEE AND OHIO VALLEYS INTO THE
MID-ATLANTIC...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms are expected today from
the ArkLaTex and Lower Mississippi Valley northeastward through the
Ohio Valley and Mid-Atlantic.
...Synopsis...
Split-flow upper pattern persists across the CONUS this morning,
with an upper low moving through TX in the southern stream and a
shortwave trough moving through the northern and central Plains
within the northern stream. Both of these systems are forecast to
progress quickly eastward amid modest phasing and trend towards a
more confluent, single-stream pattern by early tomorrow morning.
Currently a broad region of moderate to strong low/mid-level flow
extends from TX northeastward into eastern Ontario/southern Quebec.
The strongest low-level flow with this broad region is over the
Lower/Middle Ohio Valley, where 850 mb flow is around 50 to 60 kt.
Thunderstorms are currently clustered over two areas within this
broader region, IL and OH, and farther south from east TX into the
Arklatex. The greatest severe thunderstorm potential is expected to
concentrate downstream of the areas today, with damaging gusts as
the primary severe hazards.
...Ohio Valley through the Mid-Atlantic...
Regional radar imagery shows a convective line extending from
west-central IN southwestward into southern IL. This line is
progressing quickly east-northeastward and has produced several
strong gusts (i.e. 40-45 kt) thus far. Regional radar imagery also
depicts a MCV moving into southern IL. Mesoscale ascent attendant to
this MCV could be aiding in the development of the convective line
as well as the more cellular storms to its south. General
expectation is for this convective line to continue quickly
northeastward across the Ohio Valley, with the robust low-level flow
support in the potential strong to severe gusts as well as a few
line-embedded tornadoes. This activity will spread east toward the
Middle Atlantic by late afternoon.
This ongoing line is well ahead of a shortwave trough moving through
the northern/central Plains, and strong low-level moisture advection
will likely result in airmass recovery in its wake ahead of the
shortwave. As a result, a second round of thunderstorms is
anticipated as the shortwave and its associated cold front moves
through the Ohio Valley during the afternoon and evening. Despite
airmass recovery, the overall buoyancy will likely be tempered by
widespread clouds and muted diurnal heating. Even so, the
combination of modest buoyancy with robust shear will still support
another round of strong to severe thunderstorms. Strong gusts are
the primary risk, but line-embedded tornadoes are possible as well.
Any mature discrete development ahead of the front would likely be
supercellular and capable of all severe hazards, including
tornadoes.
...East Texas through the Southeast...
A few strong to severe thunderstorms are currently ongoing within a
broad area of precipitation from east TX into southern AR, supported
by modest buoyancy and strong vertical shear downstream of a
shortwave moving through west TX. As mentioned in recently issued
MCD 211, some weakening and veering of low-level flow has been noted
in regional VWPs, but deep-layer shear remains favorable, and
seasonably rich low-level moisture will continue to support moderate
buoyancy. The severe threat may tend to remain rather isolated in
the short term, though the strongest cells/clusters will be capable
of producing locally damaging wind and perhaps a tornado.
A more substantial increase in the coverage of the severe threat is
expected later this afternoon, in response to increased ascent
attendant to the approaching shortwave trough. This additional
development will likely begin in a more cellular mode over east TX
before progressing eastward and becoming more linear with time. All
hazards are possible with this more cellular activity, including
tornadoes. Southwesterly flow aloft should strengthen ahead of the
shortwave throughout the evening and overnight, leading to increased
organization and strength of the convective line. As such, the
threat for damaging gusts and line-embedded tornadoes will persist
throughout the night across the Gulf Coast states.
..Mosier/Dean.. 03/11/2026
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