RSS Mesoscale Discussions from Storm Prediction Center
WW 198 SEVERE TSTM TX CW 110330Z - 111000Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 198
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1030 PM CDT Sun May 10 2026
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of
South-Central and Southeast Texas
Coastal Waters
* Effective this Sunday night and Monday morning from 1030 PM
until 500 AM CDT.
* Primary threats include...
Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible
Isolated large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible
A tornado or two possible
SUMMARY...A nearly continuous line of storms, located near and west
of I-35 in south-central Texas to the Rio Grande River, will
continue generally southeastward with damaging winds and some hail
as the primary hazards into the overnight.
The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 55
statute miles north and south of a line from 25 miles north
northeast of Houston TX to 25 miles north northwest of Laredo TX.
For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch
outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU8).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.
&&
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 197...
AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A
few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 550. Mean storm motion vector
30025.
...Guyer
Read more
WW 197 SEVERE TSTM TX 102215Z - 110500Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 197
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
515 PM CDT Sun May 10 2026
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of
South-Central Texas
* Effective this Sunday afternoon from 515 PM until Midnight CDT.
* Primary threats include...
Scattered damaging winds likely with isolated significant gusts
to 75 mph possible
Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2
inches in diameter possible
A tornado or two possible
SUMMARY...Strong to severe storms will initially impact parts of the
Rio Grande Valley, while additional storms over central Texas
continue to organize and progress southeastward, with an increasing
potential for large hail and damaging winds this evening regionally.
The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 55
statute miles north and south of a line from 45 miles west of Del
Rio TX to 40 miles east southeast of Austin TX. For a complete
depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update
(WOUS64 KWNS WOU7).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.
&&
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 196...
AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 65 knots. A
few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 550. Mean storm motion vector
30025.
...Guyer
Read more
WW 0198 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0198 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET
Read more
WW 0197 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 197
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 SSE DRT
TO 60 WNW COT TO 5 S HDO TO 10 NNE SAT TO 20 ESE AUS TO 25 SSE
TPL.
..JEWELL..05/11/26
ATTN...WFO...EWX...
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 197
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
TXC013-021-029-055-091-123-149-163-177-187-255-285-287-323-325-
493-507-110440-
TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ATASCOSA BASTROP BEXAR
CALDWELL COMAL DEWITT
FAYETTE FRIO GONZALES
GUADALUPE KARNES LAVACA
LEE MAVERICK MEDINA
WILSON ZAVALA
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
Read more
WW 0196 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 196
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 NNE 6R6
TO 35 WSW SJT TO 45 SSW BWD TO 20 SSW BWD TO 20 SSW CRS.
..JEWELL..05/11/26
ATTN...WFO...FWD...MAF...SJT...
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 196
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
TXC027-095-099-105-193-235-267-281-307-309-319-327-333-411-413-
435-451-110140-
TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BELL CONCHO CORYELL
CROCKETT HAMILTON IRION
KIMBLE LAMPASAS MCCULLOCH
MCLENNAN MASON MENARD
MILLS SAN SABA SCHLEICHER
SUTTON TOM GREEN
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
Read more
MD 0701 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 197... FOR SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS
Mesoscale Discussion 0701
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0951 PM CDT Sun May 10 2026
Areas affected...south-central Texas
Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 197...
Valid 110251Z - 110515Z
The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 197
continues.
SUMMARY...A few severe wind gusts remain possible as activity
spreads south/southeast. Isolated large hail may occur toward the
lower Rio Grande Valley.
DISCUSSION...Storms continue to propagate southeastward across
central TX and toward the Rio Grande Valley as the aggregate
outflow/cold front pushes south. Surface observations have generally
shown gusts of 35 to 50 mph, and this is generally expected as
storms affect the I-35 corridor.
Toward the Rio Grande, sporadic upticks in intensity have been
noted, though the southern portion of this line/outflow has not yet
consolidated into an MCS. This scenario remains possible over the
next several hours as the air mass remains very moist and unstable.
Depending on storm trends, a watch could be needed for parts of Deep
South TX for wind & hail potential.
..Jewell.. 05/11/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...HGX...FWD...CRP...EWX...
LAT...LON 28850059 29169989 29839947 29949885 30159839 30739785
31019723 30949700 30529667 29879670 29379715 28729808
27719990 28090009 28250029 28700052 28850059
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN
Read more
SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0730 PM CDT Sun May 10 2026
Valid 110100Z - 111200Z
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING
INTO TONIGHT IN CENTRAL TEXAS...
...SUMMARY...
Scattered large hail (some 2+ inches) and numerous severe/damaging
wind gusts (isolated 75+ mph) are expected this evening across parts
of central Texas.
...Central Texas to the Texas Coast and deep South Texas...
As of 00:15z, volumetric radar data indicated an HP supercell
gradually evolving into a larger-scale bowing complex over
McCulloch, San Saba, and Mason counties with a separate supercell
complex over Coryell county, which recently produced hail up to four
inches in diameter. Surface observations and objective analysis
indicate the presence of a warm and moist inflow air mass with
estimated MLCAPE of 2000-3000 J/kg. While deep-layer shear isn't
particularly strong, the observed supercell structures indicate
sufficient shear exists to support organized storm modes given the
degree of instability.
Current thinking is that the separate thunderstorm regimes mentioned
above will eventually merge along a common cold pool, with a
broader-scale MCS accelerating south-southeast through the remainder
of central TX this evening. Corridors of damaging winds in excess of
75 mph appear likely within the core of the bowing complex. The very
large hail (> 2") threat is expected to persist for the next hour or
two with the dominant supercell structures. Hail sizes should
diminish with time as convection transitions to more of an outflow
dominant system.
The wind damage threat is expected to become more isolated late
tonight as the convective system approaches the TX Coast and deep
South Texas owing to gradual cooling and stabilization of the
boundary layer.
..Mead.. 05/11/2026
Read more
|
