RSS Mesoscale Discussions from Storm Prediction Center
No watches are valid as of Mon Dec 29 21:48:02 UTC 2025.
MD 2287 CONCERNING SNOW SQUALL FOR NORTHEAST OHIO...NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA...WESTERN NEW YORK
Mesoscale Discussion 2287
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0214 PM CST Mon Dec 29 2025
Areas affected...Northeast Ohio...northwest Pennsylvania...western
New York
Concerning...Snow Squall
Valid 292014Z - 300015Z
SUMMARY...Snow squall conditions are possible as a secondary cold
front moves off of Lake Erie. Moderate to briefly heavy snowfall and
strong wind gusts will lead to reduced visibility with this
activity.
DISCUSSION...A secondary cold front is moving through the Great
Lakes region as a potent upper low continues through southern
Ontario/Quebec. A coherent band structure has develop as the front
has approached Lake Erie. This band is expected to move onshore and
progress into Ohio/Pennsylvania/New York. Moderate to briefly heavy
snowfall may occur with this activity. Strong cold advection has led
to steep enough lapse rates in the boundary layer which could could
contribute to enhanced wind gust potential above what has already
been ongoing synoptically this afternoon.
..Wendt.. 12/29/2025
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...BGM...BUF...CTP...PBZ...CLE...
LAT...LON 41298236 41718165 42188006 42687873 42967772 42917753
42647716 41967761 41427913 41068061 40868134 40878175
41068217 41298236
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SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0135 PM CST Mon Dec 29 2025
Valid 292000Z - 301200Z
...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are not forecast in the U.S. through tonight.
...DISCUSSION...
No changes are made to the outlook for this issuance.
..Broyles.. 12/29/2025
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1000 AM CST Mon Dec 29 2025/
...Synopsis and Discussion...
An amplified upper trough/low with an intense mid-level jet will
continue advancing east-northeastward over Ontario/Quebec and the
eastern CONUS today. A related strong surface cold front will also
move east-southeastward across the Southeast and Gulf through the
period. With negligible instability forecast over land ahead of the
front, thunderstorm probabilities still appear less than 10%.
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SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1245 PM CST Mon Dec 29 2025
Valid 311200Z - 011200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated thunderstorms are possible late New Year's Eve into early
New Year's Day along coastal southern California.
...Southern CA...
An initially retrograding upper low off of the southern CA coast is
forecast to stall and then eject northeastward as a shortwave trough
through the period, approaching the coast by early Thursday morning.
A modest increase in moisture beneath cooling temperatures aloft
could support weak thunderstorm development, mainly late in the
period from the Channel Islands to the immediate southern CA coast.
With only very meager forecast buoyancy, convection is expected to
remain too shallow and disorganized for an appreciable severe
threat, despite some increase in deep-layer flow/shear with time.
..Dean.. 12/29/2025
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SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0118 PM CST Mon Dec 29 2025
Valid 301200Z - 311200Z
Minor modifications were made to the Elevated area in the Southeast
based on the latest high-resolution forecast guidance. With both
Elevated areas, there is some concern that it may be more locally
elevated winds/RH, but both areas were maintained given the
potential for elevated fire weather conditions.
..Nauslar.. 12/29/2025
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0159 AM CST Mon Dec 29 2025/
...Synopsis...
A broad northwesterly mid-level flow regime will prevail across the
eastern half of the CONUS tomorrow (Tuesday), with multiple embedded
impulses poised to traverse this flow and encourage the continued
southward shunting of surface high pressure. Offshore flow within a
post-cold-frontal regime will encourage 10-15 mph sustained
northwesterly surface winds amid 25-35 percent RH along portions of
the Carolinas, southward to the Florida Peninsula, where Elevated
highlights have been introduced. Meanwhile, southwesterly surface
flow pivoting around a surface high will support 15 mph sustained
winds coinciding with 15-25 percent RH atop dry fuels over parts of
the southern Plains, warranting Elevated highlights.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
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SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0336 PM CST Mon Dec 29 2025
Valid 311200Z - 061200Z
Upper-level ridging will be over the West with upper-level troughing
over the East for much of this week before more quasi zonal flow is
likely to develop across the CONUS. A weaker closed low is likely to
move into southern California mid to late this week then weaken as
it traverses through the base of the upper-level ridging across the
Southwest. Dry conditions will persist across much of the Southeast
through Day 4/Thursday before moisture returns from the Gulf and
increases chances of rain across the region Day 5/Friday - Day
6/Saturday. Weak downslope flow is likely on portions of the central
High Plains mid to late this week before a cold front slides south
down the Plains late Day 4/Thursday into Day 6/Saturday.
...Southeast...
Elevated conditions remain likely in portions of the Southeast Day
3/Wednesday, but the 40% area was reduced from yesterday's outlook.
Breezy westerly winds will overlap a dry post-frontal airmass from
southern Georgia/vicinity through the Carolinas, and RH will be
below elevated criteria across much of the Southeast/Gulf Coast Day
3/Wednesday. However, weaker flow will limit areas reaching
elevated/locally critical criteria across the broader Southeast
region. Locally elevated conditions are possible again Day
4/Thursday from eastern Alabama into South Carolina and north
Florida. While rain is likely across much of the Southeast Day
5/Friday - Day 6/Saturday, most areas will not see heavy rainfall,
including some areas seeing little to none (e.g., south Florida).
...Southern/Central Plains...
Dry/breezy conditions are possible Day 3/Wednesday - Day 4/Thursday
on portions of the southern/central High Plains in a modest
downslope flow regime. Additionally, drier and potentially breezy
return flow may reach locally elevated thresholds in portions of
Texas during these days before a cold front pushes south down the
Plains. No precipitation is expected into the weekend for the
southern/central Plains, the rest of Texas, and into the western
Lower Mississippi Valley. These dry conditions will further cure
fuels regardless if they meet elevated/critical criteria.
..Nauslar.. 12/29/2025
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
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