RSS Mesoscale Discussions from Storm Prediction Center
WW 311 TORNADO IA IL MO 111230Z - 112000Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Tornado Watch Number 311
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
730 AM CDT Thu Jun 11 2026
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Tornado Watch for portions of
Southern and Eastern Iowa
Northwest Illinois
Far northern Missouri
* Effective this Thursday morning and afternoon from 730 AM until
300 PM CDT.
* Primary threats include...
A few tornadoes and a couple intense tornadoes possible
Widespread damaging winds likely with isolated significant gusts
to 80 mph possible
Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2
inches in diameter possible
SUMMARY...A well-organized and intense bowing linear system will
continue eastward this morning with the potential for widespread
damaging winds and potentially an increasing tornado risk, with the
intense convective line as well as any storms developing ahead of
it.
The tornado watch area is approximately along and 90 statute miles
north and south of a line from Knoxville IA to 40 miles east
southeast of Moline IL. For a complete depiction of the watch see
the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU1).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for
tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch
area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for
threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements
and possible warnings.
&&
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 310...
AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail
surface and aloft to 2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind
gusts to 70 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 600. Mean
storm motion vector 27045.
...Guyer
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WW 310 SEVERE TSTM IA MO NE 110710Z - 111500Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 310
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
210 AM CDT Thu Jun 11 2026
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of
Western and Central Iowa
Northern Missouri
South-Central and Eastern Nebraska
* Effective this Thursday morning from 210 AM until 1000 AM CDT.
* Primary threats include...
Scattered large hail likely with isolated very large hail events
to 3 inches in diameter possible
Isolated damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible
A tornado or two possible
SUMMARY...Mostly elevated strong to severe thunderstorms will
continue to develop overnight, initially across
south-central/eastern Nebraska, while eventually expanding into
western/central Iowa and far northern Missouri. This will include
the Interstate 80 corridor. Large hail is expected to be the most
common hazard, but surface-based storm potential could increase
mainly toward/after sunrise including what could be an increasing
damaging wind risk.
The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 60
statute miles north and south of a line from 40 miles west of
Kearney NE to 30 miles north of Ottumwa IA. For a complete depiction
of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS
WOU0).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.
&&
AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
3 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A
few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 550. Mean storm motion vector
25025.
...Guyer
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WW 0311 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0311 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET
Read more
WW 0310 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 310
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 N STJ TO
40 ESE SDA TO 30 NW LWD TO 35 NNW LWD TO 30 WSW DSM TO 45 SSW FOD
TO 40 SSW FOD TO 15 WNW FOD.
..WENDT..06/11/26
ATTN...WFO...DMX...OAX...EAX...GID...
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 310
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
IAC007-013-015-039-049-051-053-073-075-079-083-099-117-121-123-
125-127-135-153-157-159-169-171-179-181-185-187-111340-
IA
. IOWA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
APPANOOSE BLACK HAWK BOONE
CLARKE DALLAS DAVIS
DECATUR GREENE GRUNDY
HAMILTON HARDIN JASPER
LUCAS MADISON MAHASKA
MARION MARSHALL MONROE
POLK POWESHIEK RINGGOLD
STORY TAMA WAPELLO
WARREN WAYNE WEBSTER
MOC075-081-129-147-171-197-227-111340-
MO
. MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
GENTRY HARRISON MERCER
NODAWAY PUTNAM SCHUYLER
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MD 1085 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 310... FOR SOUTHERN IOWA AND FAR NORTHERN MISSOURI
Mesoscale Discussion 1085
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0633 AM CDT Thu Jun 11 2026
Areas affected...Southern Iowa and far northern Missouri
Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 310...
Valid 111133Z - 111300Z
The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 310
continues.
SUMMARY...The threat for 60-80 mph winds will continue in southern
Iowa. Brief tornadoes associated with the MCS will also be a
concern. With discrete development ahead of the MCS possible, trends
will need to be monitored for a potentially greater tornado threat.
DISCUSSION...A compact MCS with a history of 60-80 mph winds and a
couple of brief tornadoes continues east within southern Iowa. Ahead
of this MCS, weak thunderstorm development has been noted in
south-central Iowa. The primary concern this morning will continue
to be severe/damaging winds as the downstream environment begins to
further destabilize. A secondary concern that needs to be monitored
is the potential for stronger discrete development ahead of the MCS
near the surface boundary. The low-level jet core is expected to
move into more of central/eastern Iowa this morning. This could lead
to a greater tornado risk if discrete storms can form/mature.
..Wendt.. 06/11/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...DVN...DMX...EAX...OAX...
LAT...LON 40609549 41399531 41429306 41359184 41039154 40799159
40459197 40329344 40329369 40479512 40609549
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-125 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN
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Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0352 AM CDT Thu Jun 11 2026
Valid 141200Z - 191200Z
...DISCUSSION...
...Day 4/Sunday...
The 00z models have trended toward a much stronger short-wave trough
and associated mid-level jet, which will progress from the Great
Lakes and OH Valley into the Northeast. Elsewhere, a short-wave
trough is forecast to move from the northern Rockies into the
central Plains. At the surface, a cold front attendant to the
Northeast short-wave trough will move through that region with the
trailing extension of the boundary pushing south through the OH and
TN Valleys into the Gulf Coast states.
A much stronger low-level jet is now forecast ahead of the cold
front across the Northeast, which will aid in greater air mass
destabilization than indicated in previous model runs. When coupled
with notably stronger vertical shear, the setup appears favorable
for organized severe storms across the Mid-Atlantic, potentially
into southern New England Sunday afternoon and evening.
...Day 5/Monday...
The models suggest the Sunday/central Plains short-wave trough will
progress through the mid MS into OH Valleys with an associated belt
of enhanced mid-level flow stretching from the central Plains into
Mid-Atlantic. At the surface, there is good model agreement that the
primary synoptic front and associated warm sector will lie across TX
and the Gulf Coast states, to the south of the stronger mid-level
winds and forcing for ascent. Some severe-weather threat may develop
along and south of the front; however, the marginal vertical shear
is expected to limit the overall severe-weather threat.
Slightly stronger vertical shear is forecast across the central and
southern High Plains, due to an easterly upslope regime in the
low-levels. While the potential for more organized storms will exist
in that region, severe-weather coverage may only be isolated.
...Day 6/Tuesday...
The ensemble mean and deterministic models are suggestive that a
mid-level disturbance will track from the central Plains into the
lower OH and TN Valleys, contributing to overall amplification of
the long-wave trough in place east of the Rockies. The primary
surface front is expected to remain in place across the Gulf Coast
states, to the immediate south of the stronger forcing for ascent
and mid-level flow. While isolated occurrences of severe weather
appear possible from the southern High Plains into Southeast, the
potential for an organized severe-weather event remains in question.
...Days 7-8/Wednesday and Thursday...
The ensemble means indicate the progression of a strong mid-level
jet streak into the northern and central Plains Wednesday with that
feature moving through the OH Valley into Mid-Atlantic Thursday. At
the surface, the ensemble member low positions indicate clustering
across the northern Plains and upper MS Valley Wednesday, and across
the Great Lakes into Ontario on Thursday. The rapid poleward return
of a moist and unstable air mass is expected to occur ahead of the
surface low and associated frontal system. As such, some severe
weather appears possible across parts of the Midwest Wednesday, and
perhaps OH Valley into Mid-Atlantic Thursday.
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