RSS Mesoscale Discussions from Storm Prediction Center
No watches are valid as of Sun Apr 26 11:02:02 UTC 2026.
No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Sun Apr 26 11:02:02 UTC 2026.
SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0230 AM CDT Sun Apr 26 2026
Valid 281200Z - 291200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING IN A CORRIDOR ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN GREAT PLAINS INTO
LOWER OHIO VALLEY...
...SUMMARY...
Scattered strong to severe thunderstorm development is possible
Tuesday afternoon and evening in a corridor from the southeastern
Great Plains into lower Ohio Valley.
...Discussion...
Models indicate that an evolving broad cyclone will continue to
deepen while migrating northeast of the upper Great Lakes region
through the southeastern Hudson Bay vicinity Tuesday through Tuesday
night. In its wake, it appears that a cold front will gradually
advance eastward and southward through the Ohio Valley/Mid South and
southern Great Plains. This may be slowed a bit as a trailing short
wave perturbation supports a developing frontal wave, as it migrates
through the base of broad, larger-scale interior North American
troughing, to the north of a prominent subtropical high maintaining
a notable influence as far north as the southern Great Plains
through Gulf Coast states.
There remains notable spread within the latest model output
concerning the frontal progression and where the stronger forcing
for ascent develops with the evolving wave. A conglomerate
convective outflow boundary may also initially precede the front
across the northern Gulf Coast states through Ark-La-Tex at the
outset of the period. Even so, guidance suggests that a corridor of
moderate to strong potential instability will again develop along
the frontal zone across parts of the southern Great Plains into Mid
South, and perhaps northeastward through portions of the Ohio
Valley. Aided by favorable vertical shear near the southern fringe
of the westerlies, this environment could become conducive to the
development of supercell structures and organizing clusters with
potential to produce damaging wind gusts, large hail and perhaps a
risk for tornadoes.
..Kerr.. 04/26/2026
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Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0348 AM CDT Sun Apr 26 2026
Valid 291200Z - 041200Z
...DISCUSSION...
In general, the latest medium-range model output suggests that the
prevailing split flow will continue to evolve in a manner that
results in a broadly confluent regime developing across and east of
the Rockies by mid week through next weekend. Within the northern
branch, it appears that a mid-level low will develop and deepen
within broad troughing overspreading the Northeast, while an
initially prominent subtropical high, centered over southern Mexico,
becomes suppressed, as the first in a series of developing southern
stream lows is forced inland across the southern tier of the United
States. It appears that this will be preceded by broad cool surface
ridging overspreading much of the central and eastern U.S., as far
south as the Gulf Coast region by Thursday. While associated
forcing for ascent and destabilization might support increasing
thunderstorm development across parts of central and southern Texas
late this work week, mostly above/to the cool side of a stalling
frontal zone, into Florida and adjacent portions of the Southeast by
late next weekend, the risk for severe weather appears relatively
minor at this time.
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SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0131 AM CDT Sun Apr 26 2026
Valid 261200Z - 271200Z
...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND
THE FAR WESTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE...
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...
...Synopsis...
Critical to extremely critical fire weather conditions are expected
today across portions of the southern High Plains. Early-morning
water-vapor imagery depicts a low-amplitude upper wave traversing
the lower CO River Valley. This feature will migrate across the
Southwest through the day as an attendant mid-level jet noses into
the southern High Plains by peak heating. This will promote steady
deepening of a lee cyclone across eastern CO/western KS through the
day, resulting in strengthening west/southwest winds across the
southern High Plains. Consensus from latest guidance and ensemble
output is that widespread 20-25 mph sustained winds are likely
across the region with gusts upwards of 35-45 mph possible. A swath
of 30-35 mph winds will likely emerge across eastern NM into far
western TX under the approaching mid-level jet and within the lee of
the Sacramento and southern Sandia Manzano Mountains, and will
support a corridor of extremely critical fire weather conditions.
A dry air mass has been in place across the Southwest/southern High
Plains over the past several days with afternoon RH minimums largely
in the single digits to low teens. Increasing downslope
warming/drying will promote further RH reductions this afternoon.
Although most guidance depicts afternoon RH minimums in the low to
mid teens, RH values will most likely fall into the 5-10% range
again today.
Although some light precipitation is ongoing early Sunday morning
across northeast NM and parts of the TX Panhandle, MRMS QPE suggests
little rainfall is reaching the surface. Given preceding days of
dry/windy conditions and increasing ERC values (largely near the
85th percentile), receptive fuels will be in place and will support
the fire weather concern.
..Moore.. 04/26/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
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SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0209 AM CDT Sun Apr 26 2026
Valid 271200Z - 281200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PARTS OF EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND
THE TEXAS PANHANDLE...
...Synopsis...
Dry and breezy conditions will persist across portions of the
southern High Plains on Monday, supporting another day of Elevated
to Critical fire weather concerns. The upper wave currently
approaching the Southwest is forecast to quickly eject across the
Plains and into the Midwest late Sunday into Monday. As this occurs,
a surface cyclone will migrate into the upper MS River Valley by
Monday evening with a trailing cold front pushing south across the
Southern Plains. Ahead of the front, 15-20 mph westerly winds will
be common across the southern High Plains and into portions of OK
and TX.
Little to no moisture recovery will support another day of 5-15% RH
minimums over a region with dry fuels. Consequently, widespread
elevated fire weather conditions appear likely. Although the primary
synoptic low will be increasingly displaced from the region through
late afternoon, residual strong winds within the boundary layer will
likely support areas of 20-25 mph winds with gusts upwards of 30
mph. Based on latest ensemble guidance, a corridor of sustained 20
mph winds appears likely roughly along portions of the I-40 corridor
from eastern NM into the TX Panhandle. Given this ensemble signal
and some recent fire activity within this corridor, Critical
highlights were introduced.
..Moore.. 04/26/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
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