RSS Mesoscale Discussions from Storm Prediction Center
No watches are valid as of Mon Mar 2 19:27:01 UTC 2026.
No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Mon Mar 2 19:27:01 UTC 2026.
SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1004 AM CST Mon Mar 02 2026
Valid 021630Z - 031200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Organized severe thunderstorms are not forecast today and tonight.
...Synopsis...
An upper trough will move eastward across the Intermountain
West/Great Basin to the central Rockies and adjacent High Plains
through the period. Large-scale ascent associated with this upper
disturbance and adequate mid-level moisture will support isolated to
scattered thunderstorms from the Great Basin into parts of the
north-central High Plains. Scant instability will preclude a severe
risk with this activity.
Farther east, isolated thunderstorms appear possible tonight as
increasing low-level warm/moist advection contributes to the
development of weak MUCAPE across parts of the mid MS Valley and
vicinity. Farther east, convection capable of producing occasional
lightning may also occur across parts of coastal NC and south FL.
Weak shear and/or instability across all these regions should
preclude a meaningful severe threat today.
..Smith/Wendt.. 03/02/2026
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SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1121 AM CST Mon Mar 02 2026
Valid 031200Z - 041200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM WESTERN
NORTH TX TO EASTERN KS...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated large hail may occur during Tuesday evening into Tuesday
night across a portion of the southern to central Great Plains.
...Synopsis...
A lower-amplitude, positive-tilt shortwave trough, consisting of
multiple embedded impulses, will gradually move east from the
southern Rockies/eastern Great Basin to the central Great and
southern High Plains through early Wednesday. A modest lee cyclone
will ripple southward across the southern High Plains, mainly in the
second half of the period. An eastward-extending initial warm front
will stall and oscillate back southeastward as a cold front on
Tuesday night. A dryline should mix east across much of the TX
Panhandle through Tuesday afternoon.
...Northwest TX to eastern KS...
Potential for sustaining deep convection along the dryline appears
slim through late afternoon Tuesday, amid very steep mid-level lapse
rates, modest boundary-layer moisture, and initially weak
convergence along the boundary. Thunderstorm probabilities will
increase during the evening as the surface front accelerates south,
with the 06Z ECMWF and NSSL-MPAS indicative of convective
development to the immediate cool side of the front in the southeast
TX Panhandle vicinity. While the unconditional probability is low,
there is potential for large hail within a conditionally favorable
environment for a couple supercells. More probable, rather elevated
convective development is anticipated farther north from northwest
OK into south-central KS towards late evening into the overnight.
Initially steep mid-level lapse rates and ample speed shear through
the cloud-bearing layer should support isolated severe hail. But an
increasingly predominant cluster mode and southeast progression of
the surface front should yield subsiding hail magnitudes downstream
in the early morning Wednesday.
..Grams.. 03/02/2026
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SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0125 PM CST Mon Mar 02 2026
Valid 041200Z - 051200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTH TX TO
WESTERN AR...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms may occur from
mid-afternoon to evening Wednesday, centered on parts of north Texas
to western Arkansas. Large hail should be the primary hazard.
...Synopsis...
A lower-amplitude shortwave impulse will gradually move from the
central Great Plains to the Mid/Lower MO Valley, while a much more
amplified trough digs across the West. Surface cyclone reflection
will be nebulous in association with the lead wave, along a front
that should be quasi-stationary on Wednesday afternoon/evening. The
trailing portion of this front will advance north as a warm front in
west TX, downstream of the amplified wave in the West.
...Central TX to western AR...
Initially steep mid-level lapse rates in conjunction with further
boundary-layer moistening in the warm sector ahead of the front
should yield a broad plume of moderate MLCAPE from 1000-2000 J/kg by
mid-afternoon across much of central/eastern TX into eastern OK.
Weak mid-level height falls trailing from the NE/KS shortwave trough
and adequate convergence along the quasi-stationary should support
increasing convective development towards late afternoon. Deep-layer
shear with southern extent in TX will be weak owing to the
compactness of the jetlet attendant to the aforementioned trough.
Effective bulk shear should commonly hold around 15-25 kts. Shear
values will increase north of the Red River, but remain modest
relative to early spring climo. Transient supercell structures that
evolve into mainly multicell clusters are the anticipated modes. At
least isolated severe hail is anticipated, primarily in the
mid-afternoon to early evening, before organized cellular structures
diminish. The paucity of cyclogenesis/stronger deep-layer shear and
modest large-scale ascent may help marginalize the overall severe
threat.
...Ozarks to the Lower OH Valley...
Multiple rounds of convective potential are expected through the
period. Elevated storms should be ongoing on Wednesday morning and
will help define the northern extent of any surface-based
destabilization into the Mid-MS/Lower OH Valleys. The degree of
warm-sector insolation is questionable with potential for repeated
convective regeneration ahead of the KS/NE shortwave trough.
Conditionally, moderately favorable deep-layer shear could support a
few supercells and/or linear clusters near the quasi-stationary
front. As such, a swath of low severe probabilities remains
warranted, mainly from mid-afternoon into the evening Wednesday.
..Grams.. 03/02/2026
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SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0944 AM CST Mon Mar 02 2026
Valid 021700Z - 031200Z
Minimal changes were made to the outlook based on the latest
observations and high-resolution forecast guidance. Please see the
previous discussion for more details.
..Nauslar/Stearns.. 03/02/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0202 AM CST Mon Mar 02 2026/
...Synopsis...
Low-amplitude ridging over the Southwest is forecast to break down
and move eastward ahead of a mid-level trough moving from central CA
into the western Great Basin. Westerly flow aloft is forecast to
increase over parts of the Southwest and southern Rockies in
response. While the stronger flow will remain to the west, dry
downslope winds and warm temperatures are expected to support
elevated fire-weather conditions this afternoon from eastern NM into
parts of CO.
...Eastern NM and central/southern CO...
Ahead of the advancing mid-level trough, downslope winds are
expected across parts of the southern Rockies and immediate
foothills. The backdoor cold front across the High Plains will
modify quickly as lee troughing intensifies in response to the
strengthening flow aloft. This will support downslope winds of 15-20
mph through the afternoon. This, along with warm temperatures,
should support afternoon RH values as low as 15%. Overlapped with
abundant fine fuels and recent fire activity, several hours of
elevated fire-weather conditions are possible.
Similar dry and breezy conditions are expected farther west near the
Four Corners, beneath the upper trough this afternoon. However,
fuels here are much less receptive than farther east. While some
localized fire-weather conditions are possible, limited fuels should
negate more widespread fire-weather concerns.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
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SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1250 PM CST Mon Mar 02 2026
Valid 031200Z - 041200Z
A small portion of the Elevated area stretching from southeast
Colorado into far western Oklahoma was removed. Latest
high-resolution forecast guidance indicates that the warm front will
not lift as far to the northeast today before sliding back to the
southwest as a cold front tomorrow. HREF/REFS probabilities of
forecast elevated winds/RH were less than 15% in the removed portion
of the Elevated area. High clouds will be a mitigating factor
tomorrow over the southern High Plains and Rockies. The
aforementioned cold front sliding southwest through the
Oklahoma/Texas Panhandles, southeast Colorado, and northeast New
Mexico during the evening and subsequent precipitation across
portions of these areas will limit the duration of elevated to
locally critical conditions as well.
..Nauslar/Stearns.. 03/02/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0202 AM CST Mon Mar 02 2026/
...Synopsis...
A mid-level shortwave trough over the Great Basin and Four Corners
will eject over the Rockies and High Plains Tuesday, deepening a lee
low over eastern CO. A trailing dryline and stronger flow aloft will
bolster surface winds ahead of a southward moving cold front. With
increasing winds and dry conditions forecast behind the dryline,
elevated to locally critical fire-weather concerns are expected over
the southern and central High Plains D2/Tuesday afternoon.
...Southern and central High Plains...
As the primary mid-level trough begins to eject eastward, moderate
height falls and increasing westerly flow aloft will deepen a
trailing lee trough/dryline across eastern CO/NM into western TX/OK.
Lee surface cyclone development across eastern CO should support
enhanced southwest winds across much of eastern NM, West TX and
portions of the OK/TX Panhandles. With surface winds expected to
reach 15-20 mph during the afternoon, downsloping and warm
temperatures will support low humidity below 20%. Overlapped with
areas of abundant dry fuels and recent fire activity, several hours
of elevated fire-weather conditions are probable Tuesday afternoon.
Some locally stronger winds (gusts 25-30 mph) could develop with RH
falling below 15% across the western TX Panhandle and eastern NM for
a few hours Tuesday mid afternoon. However, the duration of
sustained stronger winds beneath the weakening upper jet is expected
to be short as the surface low is forecast to move eastward. While
confidence is not overly high, a few hours of near critical
conditions are possible across eastern NM and the western TX
Panhandle, and an upgrade could be needed in future outlooks.
Fire-weather concerns should end overnight into early Wednesday as a
cold front moves south and low-level moisture increases.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
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