RSS Mesoscale Discussions from Storm Prediction Center
No watches are valid as of Thu Feb 12 05:21:01 UTC 2026.
No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Thu Feb 12 05:21:01 UTC 2026.
SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0628 PM CST Wed Feb 11 2026
Valid 120100Z - 121200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected.
...01z Update...
Center of upper low is drifting slowly south along the central CA
coast early this evening. The majority of convection has now shifted
into the Great Basin where isolated thunderstorms are currently
noted, primarily across northern NV into northern UT. This activity
is expected to gradually wane later this evening, driven in large
part due to a stabilizing boundary layer.
..Darrow.. 02/12/2026
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SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1117 PM CST Wed Feb 11 2026
Valid 121200Z - 131200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected.
...Great Basin Region...
Upper low off the central CA coast will drift southeast through
13/12z as the primary corridor of stronger midlevel flow extends
within the base of the trough into the central Baja Peninsula.
Coldest midlevel temperatures are forecast to extend across CA into
the Great Basin, and cool/steep profiles favor weak destabilization
across this region, especially between 20z-03z, aided by
boundary-layer heating. Forecast soundings support this with MUCAPE
on the order of 200 J/kg. Earlier thoughts regarding the potential
for isolated-scattered convection continue.
..Darrow/Squitieri.. 02/12/2026
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