RSS Mesoscale Discussions from Storm Prediction Center
WW 190 TORNADO AL FL GA CW 070655Z - 071400Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Tornado Watch Number 190
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
255 AM EDT Thu May 7 2026
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Tornado Watch for portions of
Southeast Alabama
Central and Eastern Florida Panhandle
Southwest Georgia
Coastal Waters
* Effective this Thursday morning from 255 AM until 1000 AM EDT.
* Primary threats include...
A couple tornadoes possible
Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible
Isolated large hail events to 1 inch in diameter possible
SUMMARY...A line of thunderstorms will continue to push
eastward/southeastward into the moist and unstable airmass in place
over southeast Alabama/southwest Georgia and the central/eastern
Florida Panhandle. Strong deep-layer vertical shear will support the
potential for occasional storm organization within this line, with
the strongest segments capable of damaging gusts and brief
line-embedded tornadoes.
The tornado watch area is approximately along and 65 statute miles
north and south of a line from 50 miles southwest of Dothan AL to 30
miles south of Moultrie GA. For a complete depiction of the watch
see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU0).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for
tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch
area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for
threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements
and possible warnings.
&&
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 189...
AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail
surface and aloft to 1 inch. Extreme turbulence and surface wind
gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean
storm motion vector 28030.
...Mosier
Read more
WW 189 TORNADO AL FL LA MS CW 070400Z - 071100Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Tornado Watch Number 189
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1100 PM CDT Wed May 6 2026
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Tornado Watch for portions of
Southern Alabama
Western Florida Panhandle
Southeast Louisiana
Southern Mississippi
Coastal Waters
* Effective this Wednesday night and Thursday morning from 1100
PM until 600 AM CDT.
* Primary threats include...
A couple intense tornadoes possible
Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible
Isolated large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible
SUMMARY...Severe storm threat will continue regionally overnight
within a moist environment with strong shear, and this includes
damaging wind and tornado potential.
The tornado watch area is approximately along and 50 statute miles
north and south of a line from 50 miles west southwest of Pine Belt
MS to 35 miles northeast of Dothan AL. For a complete depiction of
the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS
WOU9).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for
tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch
area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for
threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements
and possible warnings.
&&
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 186...WW 187...WW 188...
AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail
surface and aloft to 1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind
gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean
storm motion vector 28030.
...Guyer
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WW 0190 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 190
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..DEAN..05/07/26
ATTN...WFO...TAE...
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 190
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ALC031-045-061-067-069-070840-
AL
. ALABAMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
COFFEE DALE GENEVA
HENRY HOUSTON
FLC005-013-037-039-045-059-063-065-073-077-129-131-133-070840-
FL
. FLORIDA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BAY CALHOUN FRANKLIN
GADSDEN GULF HOLMES
JACKSON JEFFERSON LEON
LIBERTY WAKULLA WALTON
WASHINGTON
GAC007-037-061-071-087-095-099-131-177-201-205-239-243-253-273-
275-321-070840-
GA
. GEORGIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
Read more
WW 0189 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 189
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 ESE MSY
TO 15 ESE PIB TO 40 SW SEM TO 10 ESE AUO.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0663
..DEAN..05/07/26
ATTN...WFO...MOB...BMX...LIX...JAN...
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 189
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ALC003-005-013-025-035-039-041-053-097-099-109-129-070740-
AL
. ALABAMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BALDWIN BARBOUR BUTLER
CLARKE CONECUH COVINGTON
CRENSHAW ESCAMBIA MOBILE
MONROE PIKE WASHINGTON
FLC033-070740-
FL
. FLORIDA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ESCAMBIA
MSC039-041-045-047-059-111-131-070740-
MS
. MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
Read more
MD 0664 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 189...190... FOR SOUTHEAST MS...SOUTH AL...SOUTHWEST GA...FL PANHANDLE
Mesoscale Discussion 0664
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0420 AM CDT Thu May 07 2026
Areas affected...Southeast MS...south AL...southwest GA...FL
Panhandle
Concerning...Tornado Watch 189...190...
Valid 070920Z - 071115Z
The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 189, 190 continues.
SUMMARY...Some threat for damaging wind and a tornado will continue
through dawn.
DISCUSSION...A small supercell has evolved across southeast MS, in
the vicinity of an outflow boundary associated with more widespread
convection across south AL. This cell may have the greatest
short-term opportunity to move within a somewhat more moist and
unstable environment. With strong deep-layer flow/shear still in
place, localized damaging wind and/or a tornado cannot be ruled out
with this cell, if it persists.
Otherwise, convection near and north of the outflow may tend to
remain somewhat disorganized in the short term, though if any
ongoing storms can mature and take on a more rightward motion like
the southeast MS cell, then some uptick in the damaging wind and
tornado threat could still occur through dawn.
..Dean.. 05/07/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...TAE...BMX...MOB...LIX...
LAT...LON 31218899 31748714 31898565 31918522 31858492 31638474
31298472 30988487 30888496 30698547 30708641 30778763
30718865 30858905 31218899
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-110 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN
Read more
SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1232 AM CDT Thu May 07 2026
Valid 071200Z - 081200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHEAST
ALABAMA INTO PORTIONS OF SOUTH GEORGIA AND NORTH FLORIDA...INCLUDING
THE PANHANDLE...
...SUMMARY...
Widely scattered severe storms capable of damaging winds and a
couple tornadoes are possible Thursday across southeast Alabama, and
portions of south Georgia and north Florida, including the
Panhandle. Isolated strong to severe storms are also possible in
parts of the Carolinas, as well as the lower Rio Grande Valley and
deep South Texas.
...Synopsis...
Separate vorticity maxima over the northern Plains and Raton Mesa
vicinity this evening are forecast to phase while progressing
through the southern periphery of broader-scale troughing present
across eastern Canada into the OH Valley and Northeast. That pattern
evolution will contribute to more substantial height falls from the
mid-Atlantic into the southern Appalachians and Southeast on
Thursday. Strong, mid/upper-level flow will be maintained within the
base of the deepening trough from the lower-MS Valley into the
Southeast and mid-Atlantic region.
At the surface, a cold front is expected to initially stretch from
the Tidewater region to diffuse low pressure over the western
Carolinas into northeast GA, and then southwest to the central Gulf
Coast. That boundary will slowly advance southeast through the day,
with that feature along with any convective outflow boundaries
serving as the foci for strong to severe storm development.
...Carolinas to northeast Gulf Coast...
Convection-allowing model guidance suggests that a
west-to-east-oriented, pre-frontal band of thunderstorms will be
ongoing at the start of the forecast period (07/12z) across southern
AL and the FL Panhandle into southern GA, rooted within a
warm-advection regime along a 40-50 kt low-level jet. The low-level
jet will aid in the northeastward advection of an increasingly moist
boundary layer from off the northeast Gulf with dewpoints increasing
into the low 70s within the inflow region of the early-day storms.
That moisture will largely contribute to MLCAPE of 500-1000 J/kg,
despite poor mid-level lapse rates.
The presence of the low-level jet will support initially strong
near-ground shear (i.e., effective SRH of 200-300 m2/s2) within the
instability axis preceding the storms. However, that feature is
forecast to gradually weaken while migrating east through the
morning, with seemingly the best tornado potential existing during
the first few hours of the forecast period. Otherwise, damaging wind
gusts will be the primary hazard as storms progress southeast
through the level 2/Slight Risk area.
Farther to the northeast across the NC/SC Piedmont and Coastal
Plain, poor lapse rates are expected to limit instability to
generally less than 500 j/kg. However, deep-layer wind fields will
be strong, suggesting the potential for locally strong wind gusts
with any deeper convective elements forming along and ahead of the
cold front from late morning into afternoon.
...Lower Rio Grande Valley/deep South Texas...
There is a model signal for at least isolated thunderstorm
development at the start of the forecast period (07/12z) with the
location of the storms varying from model to model. RAP-based
soundings suggest that the storms would be slightly elevated above a
stable, near-surface layer within a moderately unstable environment
with MUCAPE up to 1000-1500 J/kg. While mid-level lapse rates aren't
expected to be particularly steep, the presence of 50-60+ kt
effective bulk shear magnitudes would support the potential for
supercell structures capable of isolated occurrences of large hail
and locally damaging wind gusts. The severe-weather threat is expect
to remain confined to the morning hours.
..Mead/Lyons.. 05/07/2026
Read more
SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1218 AM CDT Thu May 07 2026
Valid 081200Z - 091200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS FAR
SOUTHEAST KS...CENTRAL/EASTERN OK...NORTHWEST AR...AND
SOUTHWEST/CENTRAL MO...
...SUMMARY...
A few severe storms are possible on Friday from parts of Oklahoma
into Missouri. Scattered storms are also likely over much of Texas
into the lower Mississippi Valley.
...Synopsis...
Northwesterly flow aloft will overspread the Plains as a shortwave
upper trough develops east across the Mid-MS, OH and TN Valleys
through early Saturday. A surface front will extend along the TX
coast northeastward through the northern Gulf. This boundary will
lift northward through the period, allowing for moisture return
across TX, the Lower MS Valley and parts of the Southeast.
Meanwhile, a surface cold front is forecast to develop southeast
across parts of the Plains and Midwest, becoming oriented from the
OH Valley to southern AR and north TX by Saturday morning.
...KS/OK/MO/AR...
Moisture return will be limited ahead of the aforementioned cold
front, with surface dewpoints generally expected to be in the 50s.
Nevertheless, steep midlevel lapse rates are noted in forecast
soundings, aided by cool temperatures aloft. This will support
MLCAPE to around 1000-1500 J/kg within a narrow corridor ahead of
the front. Effective shear magnitudes greater than 35 kt will
support organized updrafts. Given the cool temperatures aloft/steep
midlevel lapse rates and elongated/straight forecast hodographs,
isolated large hail is possible. Furthermore, where there is
stronger heating, deep boundary layer mixing and steepening
low-level lapse rates will be possible, and isolated strong/severe
wind gusts may occur. Instability will diminish with time and
eastward extent into the evening as storms move across parts of
MO/AR.
...TX to the Lower MS Valley...
Model guidance remains somewhat uncertain with regards to severe
potential across TX. Early day thunderstorms, showers, and
cloudiness are possible as Gulf moisture returns northward across
portions of the state. Capping and initially weak forcing and modest
shear will likely preclude severe potential through much of the day.
Isolated thunderstorms will likely also develop along the retreating
warm front across the Lower MS Valley vicinity, but severe storms
are not expected.
It is possible that by evening into the nighttime hours some severe
potential could develop across portions of TX as the upper shortwave
trough overspreads the region, resulting in increasing forcing
within the warm advection regime. Some storms developing over the
higher terrain in Mexico could approach the middle/lower Rio Grande
in TX, and if they can be maintained, pose a risk for large hail.
However, confidence is too low to include severe probabilities at
this time.
..Leitman.. 05/07/2026
Read more
SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0133 AM CDT Thu May 07 2026
Valid 091200Z - 101200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF SOUTHERN KANSAS INTO NORTHWEST AND CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible on Saturday
across portions of southern Kansas into northwestern and central
Oklahoma.
...KS/OK...
A midlevel shortwave trough will migrate from the central Rockies to
the Lower MS Valley on Saturday. At the surface, low pressure will
develop in response to the approaching trough in the vicinity of the
TX Panhandle. A dryline will extend southward from the low across
west TX while a warm front extends from far southern KS into
northern/central AR. Gulf moisture will spread northward across OK
to far southern KS and isolated to scattered thunderstorms may
develop by 00z. A cold front will eventually dive southward across
the central/southern Plains during the nighttime hours, but the
timing of this feature is still uncertain.
The warm sector is expected to be somewhat narrow across southern KS
and OK. Nevertheless, cold temperatures aloft will foster steep
midlevel lapse rates and MLCAPE around 1000-2000 J/kg will be
possible. Boundary layer moisture will be somewhat limited,
generally in the upper 50s to low 60s. Strong heating will allow for
deep mixing, and forecast soundings indicate any storms that develop
will likely be higher-based. Effective shear magnitudes near 40 kt
will support organized convection posing a risk for hail and
damaging wind gusts.
..Leitman.. 05/07/2026
Read more
Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0228 AM CDT Thu May 07 2026
Valid 101200Z - 151200Z
...DISCUSSION...
A progressive upper-level pattern is forecast during the Day
4-8/Sun-Thu period. Early in the period, an upper trough will move
from the Plains to the eastern U.S. through Day 5/Mon. Stronger
northwesterly flow will overspread the Plains during this time,
while a cold front will sag southward across TX and Gulf Coast
states. This will suppress boundary layer moisture across much of
the CONUS, but could bring some potential for strong thunderstorms
to parts of TX and the Southeast, though severe thunderstorm
potential appears marginal.
By Day 6/Tue, a deepening surface low is forecast across the central
Plains as a weak shortwave impulse migrating through northwesterly
flow aloft glaces the region. Increasing southerly low-level flow
will begin to transport Gulf moisture northward across portions of
the central U.S. through Day 7/Wed, and some increase in
thunderstorm potential is expected. At the same time an upper ridge
will begin to emerge over the Plains, which could lead to capping.
Additionally, quality of moisture return is uncertain with northward
extent. Overall, severe potential appears marginal throughout the
Day 4-8/Sun-Thu period.
Read more
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1258 AM CDT Thu May 07 2026
Valid 071200Z - 081200Z
...Synopsis...
An upper-level trough and attendant strong mid-level southwesterly
flow will progress eastward into the eastern CONUS today. A related
cold front and associated rainfall will near the Southeast Coast by
this afternoon. Elevated west to southwest winds south of the
advancing front amid low relative humidity and dry fuels will bring
a fire weather threat to portions of FL today. An upper ridge
building over the western U.S. will promote warm and dry conditions
across the region today.
...Florida Peninsula...
West to southwest winds of around 10 mph with higher gusts across
northern FL will evolve within a tightening pressure gradient
manifested by an advancing cold front to the north. Near record high
surface temperatures within a dry and well-mixed boundary layer
reaching the lower to middle 90s F, will promote afternoon RH of
25-35% across inland and eastern portions of the FL Peninsula.
Numerous active wildfires are present across northern FL amid a very
dry and drought stressed fuelscape. The dry conditions combined with
an emerging steady west to southwest wind late morning through the
afternoon will support an Elevated fire weather threat in portions
of northeastern and east-central FL Peninsula.
..Williams.. 05/07/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1259 AM CDT Thu May 07 2026
Valid 081200Z - 091200Z
...Synopsis...
An upper-level trough shifts off the Eastern Seaboard into the
Atlantic today as a trailing, lower amplitude upper wave enters the
Midwest and Central Plains. At the surface, showers and thunderstorm
development near a stationary frontal boundary will extend eastward
from Texas along the northern Gulf Coast and FL Panhandle, bringing
some relief to portions of northern FL. Warm and dry conditions
under a building ridge across the western U.S. will manifest largely
as a fuel curing/drying event west of the Continental Divide.
...Northern Plains...
Broad northwest flow aloft will encompass much of the central and
northern Plains Friday, with troughing across the eastern U.S. and a
building ridge over the Intermountain West. Lack of significant
rainfall over portions of ND and eastern MT has allowed more
receptive fuels to emerge over the last few weeks. West/northwest
winds of 15-20 mph and relative humidity falling close to 20% will
combine with increasingly dry fuels to promote an elevated fire
weather concern for portions of the northern Plains. Elevated
Highlights were introduced across far northeastern MT into western
ND to account for this fire weather threat. A temporary improvement
in fire weather conditions is expected late Friday and Friday night
as a cold front shifts south from Saskatchewan. A few showers and
initially high based thunderstorms are possible Friday afternoon and
evening, but widespread wetting precipitation unlikely.
..Williams.. 05/07/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
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