RSS Mesoscale Discussions from Storm Prediction Center
No watches are valid as of Sat Feb 28 21:55:02 UTC 2026.
No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Sat Feb 28 21:55:02 UTC 2026.
SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0145 PM CST Sat Feb 28 2026
Valid 282000Z - 011200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
CENTRAL AND SOUTH FLORIDA...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may occur across parts of
the central/southern Florida Peninsula this afternoon and evening.
...20Z Update...
Only minor changes to the general thunderstorm forecast in North
Florida were made base on current observations. Mid-level ascent is
entering the northeastern Gulf per visible/water-vapor satellite.
This should continue to promote potential for additional
thunderstorms within the central and southern Florida Peninsula. See
the previous discussion for additional details.
..Wendt.. 02/28/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1012 AM CST Sat Feb 28 2026/
...Central/Southern Florida Peninsula...
Late morning surface analysis places a cold front near the I-4
corridor across the central portion of the Peninsula, with upper 60s
to lower 70s dewpoints south of the boundary. A mid-level vorticity
maximum over MS/AL this morning is forecast to continue
east-southeastward through the base of a larger-scale eastern US
trough and eventually reach the Gulf Stream east of GA and
southwestward to the southern 1/3 of the Peninsula by early Sunday
morning. As this impulse progresses towards the region, the
aforementioned front will slowly move south. This boundary, a
residual outflow boundary, and an east-coast sea breeze will help
focus thunderstorm development and a potential severe risk this
afternoon. Ample heating of the moist boundary layer beneath a weak
cap, which will continue to erode by early to mid afternoon, will
result in 1500-2000 J/kg MLCAPE. Low-level flow will likely remain
veered and relatively weak, but 30+ kt shear in the 700-300 mb layer
will support some updraft organization. Scattered thunderstorms are
forecast to develop in the 18-20z period with a some of the stronger
storms potentially being capable of 55-65 mph gusts and 1 to 1.75
inch diameter hail. Short-term CAM guidance suggests the most
concentrated corridor for severe may extend from the north side of
Lake Okeechobee, where an agitated cumulus field is developing along
the diffuse outflow boundary, southward into Broward/Palm Beach
counties. Convection is forecast to eventually move east into the
Atlantic this evening with the severe risk diminishing.
...Oklahoma...
Weak MUCAPE should develop by this afternoon/early evening across
parts of OK near a surface trough. A low-amplitude shortwave trough
embedded within broad cyclonic flow over the central/eastern CONUS
may support isolated thunderstorm development across this area in
tandem with peak afternoon heating. Instability should remain too
weak to support an organized severe threat with this activity,
although locally strong/gusty winds and small hail appear possible
given steepened low-level lapse rates and favorably strong
deep-layer shear.
...Northern California...
A mid-level shortwave trough will move east-northeastward today
across northern CA and vicinity. Cool temperatures aloft associated
with this shortwave trough combined with generally 40 to mid 50s
surface dewpoints and filtered daytime heating should promote around
500-750 J/kg of MUCAPE over this region by mid to late afternoon.
While a couple of stronger thunderstorms may form across this area,
the overall severe threat should tend to be limited by the weak
instability.
Read more
SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1114 AM CST Sat Feb 28 2026
Valid 011200Z - 021200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms will be possible on Sunday across parts of south
Florida, the southern and central Plains, and in northern California
Sunday afternoon and evening.
...Synopsis...
A strong cyclone traversing eastern Canada this morning will be
followed by strengthening surface high pressure across the eastern
two-thirds of the CONUS tomorrow. A weak trailing cold front
associated with the Canadian cyclone will gradually migrate south
into the Southeast and southern Plains. Isentropic ascent over the
frontal zone will support isolated thunderstorms across portions of
OK into southeast KS, southwest MO, and northwest AR tomorrow
afternoon and evening. Although the kinematic environment is
conditionally favorable for organized convection, meager moisture
return and poor mid-level lapse rates should mitigate severe
thunderstorm potential. There is a low chance for a strong
thunderstorm across central OK during the evening hours per latest
RRFS solutions, which depict better low-level moisture/buoyancy into
OK and are aligned with recent RAP solutions environmentally.
However, the consensus among other HREF members and calibrated
guidance is that the RRFS is the outlier solution, which
substantially limits confidence in the severe potential.
Elsewhere, lingering showers and isolated thunderstorms are expected
within a residual frontal zone across the southern FL Peninsula
where an unstable, but weakly capped, environment should be in
place. Along the West Coast, an upper-level trough pushing into
northern CA and southern OR will support isolated thunderstorms as
instability increases due to cooling temperatures aloft within a
fairly moist air mass.
..Moore.. 02/28/2026
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SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0106 PM CST Sat Feb 28 2026
Valid 021200Z - 031200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms will be possible on Monday and Monday night across
parts of the central U.S. and from the Intermountain West into the
central Rockies.
...Synopsis...
A broad fetch of isentropic ascent will likely become established
across the central U.S. Monday through Monday night as
south/southwesterly 925-850 mb winds gradually increase in response
to the approach of an upper wave from the West. While buoyancy
profiles will likely be fairly modest due to poor mid-level lapse
rates, adequate low-level moistening should take place to support
isolated elevated thunderstorms from the southern Plains northward
into the mid-MS River Valley. Although surface-based buoyancy should
be maximized across western TX in proximity to a meandering dry
line/lee trough and south of a weak front, very warm temperatures at
850 mb/strong capping will subdue convective potential. Across the
Intermountain West, cold temperatures aloft associated with the
upper wave should support isolated lightning flashes.
..Moore.. 02/28/2026
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SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1239 PM CST Sat Feb 28 2026
Valid 011200Z - 021200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
...Update...
No changes were required for Sunday's fire weather forecast. Please
see the discussion below for details.
..Barnes.. 02/28/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0207 AM CST Sat Feb 28 2026/
...Synopsis...
Mid-level ridging is forecast to continue building over the
Southwest D2/Sunday ahead of a shortwave trough over the West Coast.
Modest westerly flow aloft may support some breezy downslope winds
in parts of NM and TX ahead of a southward moving cold front.
Widespread fire-weather concerns are not expected, though locally
dry and breezy conditions are possible.
...Eastern New Mexico into Far West TX...
With sub-tropical ridging forecast to build steadily over the
Southwest D2/Sunday, winds aloft are forecast to remain modest over
parts of the southern High Plains. However, very warm temperatures,
and high pressure to the west will favor some locally breezy surface
winds of 15-20 mph across parts of eastern NM into far west TX. Warm
temperatures will support RH of 15-20% during the afternoon. While
the modest surface winds will preclude broader concerns, the dry
conditions and locally breezy winds during the afternoon could
support some localized fire-weather conditions amid dry fuels
D2/Sunday afternoon.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0349 PM CST Sat Feb 28 2026
Valid 021200Z - 081200Z
...Synopsis...
Quasi-zonal mid to upper-level flow will remain present across much
of the CONUS early next week, with an embedded short-wave trough
entering the Great Basin. Increasing mid-level
westerly-to-southwesterly flow is expected to accompany this feature
across the Southern Rockies D3/Monday into D4/Tuesday. A deepening
lee surface low is also anticipated to slide southward from eastern
CO into the High Plains of TX during these periods. As the
short-wave trough progresses eastward and fills over the Central
Plains D5/Wednesday, most extended model guidance suggests a
long-wave trough will then develop over the western half of the
CONUS.
...Southwest D3/Monday...
Breezy west-southwesterly surface winds, along with warm and dry
conditions, appear likely from southern CA into portions of NM by
afternoon. While critical probabilities were evaluated for this
region, they do not appear necessary at this time given less
receptive fuels to the west (AZ) and slower wind speeds impacting
locations to the east (NM).
...Eastern/Southeastern NM, the Guadalupe Mountains, and the Upper
Trans-Pecos D4/Tuesday...
A southwesterly mid-level jet, deeply mixed boundary layer, and
increasing surface pressure gradient will likely lead to a broader
area of breezy conditions at the surface D4/Tuesday. Unseasonably
warm conditions will persist across this area, and with near zero
probabilities of rainfall expected, fuels will only become more
receptive over time. Although extended forecast models differ with
regards to the southward progression of a cold front across the
Central Plains, and the surface low position, confidence has
increased enough to warrant 40% critical probabilities across much
of eastern and southeastern NM ahead of the front.
...Eastern NM D6/Thursday...
Model solutions begin to diverge somewhat late in the week as the
next short-wave trough moves onshore near central/northern CA. The
position, depth, and progression of it vary through D6/Thursday,
though increasing mid-level flow across the Southern Rockies and a
subsequent lee surface low appear likely. As solutions begin to
converge in later forecasts, low critical probabilities for at least
eastern NM may be needed.
..Barnes.. 02/28/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
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