RSS Mesoscale Discussions from Storm Prediction Center
WW 299 SEVERE TSTM MN WI 100630Z - 101200Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 299
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
130 AM CDT Wed Jun 10 2026
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of
Southern and Eastern Minnesota
Western Wisconsin
* Effective this Wednesday morning from 130 AM until 700 AM CDT.
* Primary threats include...
Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely
Isolated large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible
A tornado or two possible
SUMMARY...A band of strong to severe thunderstorms will continue
northeastward through the early morning hours with primary potential
for damaging winds and some hail.
The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 70
statute miles east and west of a line from 45 miles northeast of
Saint Cloud MN to 35 miles south southwest of Rochester MN. For a
complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline
update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU9).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.
&&
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 297...WW 298...
AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A
few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 550. Mean storm motion vector
23035.
...Guyer
Read more
WW 298 SEVERE TSTM MN ND SD 100205Z - 100900Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 298
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
905 PM CDT Tue Jun 9 2026
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of
West-Central and Northwest Minnesota
Eastern North Dakota
Northeast South Dakota
* Effective this Tuesday night and Wednesday morning from 905 PM
until 400 AM CDT.
* Primary threats include...
Scattered damaging winds and isolated significant gusts to 80
mph likely
Isolated large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible
A tornado or two possible
SUMMARY...An extensive squall line will progress west to east across
the Watch area tonight. The more intense portions of the squall
line featuring bowing segments and deeper thunderstorm cores will
tend to focus the severe-wind threat. Embedded mesovortices within
the squall line are also possible and a risk for a tornado or two
and damaging gusts may accompany these embedded circulations.
The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 75
statute miles east and west of a line from 20 miles northwest of
Hallock MN to 30 miles southeast of Watertown SD. For a complete
depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update
(WOUS64 KWNS WOU8).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.
&&
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 293...WW 294...WW
295...WW 296...WW 297...
AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 70 knots. A
few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 450. Mean storm motion vector
23040.
...Smith
Read more
WW 0299 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 299
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 NNW MCW
TO 25 SSE MKT TO 15 NNW MKT TO 35 NNW MKT TO 30 ENE RWF.
..WENDT..06/10/26
ATTN...WFO...MPX...ARX...
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 299
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
MNC003-009-019-025-037-039-045-047-049-053-059-065-079-085-093-
095-097-099-109-123-131-139-141-143-145-147-153-157-161-163-169-
171-100840-
MN
. MINNESOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ANOKA BENTON CARVER
CHISAGO DAKOTA DODGE
FILLMORE FREEBORN GOODHUE
HENNEPIN ISANTI KANABEC
LE SUEUR MCLEOD MEEKER
MILLE LACS MORRISON MOWER
OLMSTED RAMSEY RICE
SCOTT SHERBURNE SIBLEY
STEARNS STEELE TODD
WABASHA WASECA WASHINGTON
WINONA WRIGHT
WIC005-011-017-033-035-091-093-095-107-109-121-100840-
WI
. WISCONSIN COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
Read more
WW 0298 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 298
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 SSE AXN
TO 35 W AXN TO 20 ESE FAR TO 25 SSE GFK TO 30 S HCO TO 40 NE HCO.
..WENDT..06/10/26
ATTN...WFO...FGF...ABR...MPX...
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 298
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
MNC005-007-027-029-041-051-057-067-069-077-087-089-107-111-113-
119-121-125-129-135-159-100840-
MN
. MINNESOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BECKER BELTRAMI CLAY
CLEARWATER DOUGLAS GRANT
HUBBARD KANDIYOHI KITTSON
LAKE OF THE WOODS MAHNOMEN MARSHALL
NORMAN OTTER TAIL PENNINGTON
POLK POPE RED LAKE
RENVILLE ROSEAU WADENA
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
Read more
WW 0297 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 297
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 5 NNE DNS TO
20 WSW SLB TO 40 W YKN.
..LYONS..06/10/26
ATTN...WFO...FSD...OAX...
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 297
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
IAC021-035-041-059-093-119-141-143-149-167-100540-
IA
. IOWA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BUENA VISTA CHEROKEE CLAY
DICKINSON IDA LYON
O'BRIEN OSCEOLA PLYMOUTH
SIOUX
MNC033-063-081-083-101-105-117-133-100540-
MN
. MINNESOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
COTTONWOOD JACKSON LINCOLN
LYON MURRAY NOBLES
PIPESTONE ROCK
SDC005-009-011-027-035-061-067-077-079-083-087-097-099-101-111-
125-127-135-100540-
SD
Read more
WW 0296 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 296
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 WNW OLU
TO 25 WNW BUB TO 25 SE MHN TO 10 NNW VTN.
..LYONS..06/10/26
ATTN...WFO...GID...LBF...
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 296
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
NEC009-015-017-071-089-103-115-149-171-183-100440-
NE
. NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BLAINE BOYD BROWN
GARFIELD HOLT KEYA PAHA
LOUP ROCK THOMAS
WHEELER
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
Read more
WW 0295 Status Updates
,
Read more
WW 0294 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 294
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 5 W VTN TO
25 WNW 9V9 TO 35 SW DVL TO 85 NNW DVL.
..THORNTON..06/10/26
ATTN...WFO...BIS...FSD...UNR...ABR...
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 294
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
NDC021-031-045-047-051-093-100440-
ND
. NORTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
DICKEY FOSTER LAMOURE
LOGAN MCINTOSH STUTSMAN
SDC003-015-017-023-043-045-049-053-059-069-073-089-123-100440-
SD
. SOUTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
AURORA BRULE BUFFALO
CHARLES MIX DOUGLAS EDMUNDS
FAULK GREGORY HAND
HYDE JERAULD MCPHERSON
TRIPP
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
Read more
MD 1059 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 298... FOR WEST-CENTRAL INTO NORTHERN MINNESOTA
Mesoscale Discussion 1059
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0142 AM CDT Wed Jun 10 2026
Areas affected...West-central into northern Minnesota
Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 298...
Valid 100642Z - 100845Z
The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 298
continues.
SUMMARY...The threat for severe gusts/wind damage will increase into
portions of northern Minnesota tonight. Isolated large hail and a
QLCS tornado threat will also exist. A new watch is possible for
north-central/northeast Minnesota within the next 1-2 hours.
DISCUSSION...A small bowing segment is moving into west-central
Minnesota. This portion of the broader convective line has been
responsible for multiple severe gusts in northeastern South Dakota
and southeastern North Dakota tonight. Given the favorable
orientation of the line with respect to the deep-layer shear vector,
this activity will likely be the focus for severe gusts/wind damage
over the next few hours. While dewpoints do decrease farther
northeast, some modest theta-e advection is expected to occur
immediately ahead of this bowing structure. Steep mid-level lapse
rates are still in place across the region so isolated large hail is
possible even with a linear storm mode. A QLCS tornado also is
possible. A new watch is possible for portions of
north-central/northeast Minnesota within the next couple of hours.
..Wendt.. 06/10/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...DLH...MPX...FGF...ABR...
LAT...LON 46269403 45189643 45509669 46149673 46479702 46619727
46929772 47919492 47739420 46869368 46269403
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-110 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...75-90 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN
Read more
MD 1058 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 298... FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL MINNESOTA
Mesoscale Discussion 1058
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0112 AM CDT Wed Jun 10 2026
Areas affected...Portions of southern and central Minnesota
Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 298...
Valid 100612Z - 100815Z
The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 298
continues.
SUMMARY...Damaging winds, large hail, and a conditional tornado
threat will exist with storms moving into central Minnesota tonight.
Local extensions of WW 298 and/or a new watch may be needed.
DISCUSSION...Storms in southwest Minnesota are expected to continue
moving northeastward tonight. Moderate to strong buoyancy and
effective shear of 30-35 kt will support a threat for damaging winds
and large hail with the strongest storms. The KMPX VAD does show
enlarged hodographs. A tornado would be conditionally possible in
this environment. That said, the low-level thermodynamic environment
is only marginally favorable tonight given the presence of at least
modest MLCIN. How far east the strongest activity will reach is also
a question as the environment becomes less favorable near the
Mississippi River. Local extensions of WW 298 and/or a new watch may
be needed as storms develop northeastward.
..Wendt.. 06/10/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...MPX...FSD...
LAT...LON 43649399 43719474 44139535 44739630 45209588 45849486
45699388 45389348 44949322 44049359 43649399
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-125 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN
Read more
SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1259 AM CDT Wed Jun 10 2026
Valid 101200Z - 111200Z
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND MIDWEST...
...SUMMARY...
Scattered to numerous severe thunderstorms with potential for large
hail in excess of two inches in diameter, a few strong tornadoes and
damaging winds with gusts over 75 mph are expected this afternoon
and evening across parts of the Upper Mississippi Valley and
Midwest.
...Upper Mississippi Valley/Midwest...
At mid-levels, a trough will move eastward into the central and
northern Plains today, as the exit region of a jet streak
overspreads the upper Mississippi Valley and Midwest. At the
surface, a cold front will advance eastward across the northern
Plains with a warm front moving into the western Great Lakes.
Between these two fronts, a very moist airmass will be in place with
surface dewpoints in the lower to mid 70s F. Early in the day, a
line of strong thunderstorms is expected to develop in western Iowa
near the western edge of the moist airmass. A potential for severe
wind gusts will be possible with this line. Eastward across the
moist sector, moderate to strong instability is expected to develop
by midday as surface temperatures warm. This will help the line to
grow upscale, potentially into a linear MCS, as it moves across
southern Wisconsin and northern Illinois early this afternoon.
Severe wind gusts and QLCS tornadoes will be possible along the
stronger parts of this line segment.
In the wake of the initial line segment, instability is expected to
increase as moisture advection and surface heating take place. An
instability axis is forecast to develop in the afternoon from
eastern Missouri northward into eastern Iowa, where MLCAPE should
increase into the 3000 to 3500 J/kg range. Thunderstorm development
will be likely during the mid to late afternoon along a zone of
low-level convergence from northern Missouri into central and
eastern Iowa. Additional storms are expected to form further north
into parts of far eastern Minnesota and western Wisconsin. RAP
forecast soundings in the late afternoon from eastern Iowa into
southwest Wisconsin have curved hodographs, with 0-6 km shear near
40 knots, and 0-3 km storm-relative helicity around 225 m2/s2. This
environment will support supercells with tornado potential. A strong
tornado or two will be possible as supercells move eastward in a
strengthening low-level jet during the late afternoon and early
evening. Large hail and wind damage will also be possible with
supercells. From this cluster, a second severe line segment with
damaging wind gusts is expected to develop. This line will likely
impact parts of northeast Missouri and north-central Illinois.
Further southwest across parts of northwest/north-central Missouri
and northeast Kansas, scattered thunderstorm development is expected
during the late afternoon and early evening. These storms will be
located near an axis of strong instability, along which RAP
forecasts suggest that 0-6 km shear will be in around 40 knots. In
addition 700-500 mb lapse rates are forecast to be near 7.5 C/km.
The environment should support large hail and severe wind gusts.
...Ohio Valley/Central Appalachians...
A moist and unstable airmass will be in place today across much of
the region, with surface dewpoints in the lower to mid 70s F.
Although large-scale ascent will be weak, isolated thunderstorms
appear likely to develop in areas where low-level convergence
becomes maximized. Forecast soundings across the Ohio Valley show
steep low-level lapse rates during the afternoon and have enough
deep-layer shear for a localized severe threat. A few of the
stronger cells could produce isolated severe gust and hail.
..Broyles/Lyons.. 06/10/2026
Read more
SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1245 AM CDT Wed Jun 10 2026
Valid 111200Z - 121200Z
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
NORTHEAST MISSOURI...PARTS OF SOUTHERN AND EASTERN IOWA...SOUTHERN
WISCONSIN...NORTHERN AND CENTRAL ILLINOIS...NORTHERN INDIANA...PARTS
OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN...AND FAR NORTHWEST OHIO...
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SURROUNDING THE
ENHANCED RISK FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES...AND ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC INTO CENTRAL APPALACHIANS...
...SUMMARY...
Scattered to numerous severe storms capable of potentially strong
tornadoes, large hail greater than two inches in diameter, and
destructive winds with gusts in excess of 75 mph appear likely from
portions of the lower Missouri and mid Mississippi Valleys into the
upper Great Lakes. Widely scattered severe storms capable of
damaging winds and large hail are possible across the Southern
Plains, as well as the Mid-Atlantic into central Appalachians.
...Synopsis...
A potent short-wave trough initially over the central High Plains
Thursday morning is forecast to accelerate through the upper Great
Lakes with a trailing perturbation moving through the central Plains
into mid MS Valley Thursday night. Both disturbances will be located
on the cyclonic aside of an unseasonably strong mid-level jet with
500-mb wind speeds of 60-80+ kt. Elsewhere, northwest flow pattern
will prevail in the mid levels across the Mid-Atlantic, with a
series of weaker disturbances moving through that region.
At the surface, low pressure initially over north-central KS
Thursday morning will develop into central lower MI by Thursday
night. The surface low will be developing along a composite
outflow-warm front that will be rapidly lifting north through the
Midwest into the upper Great Lakes. Meanwhile, a trailing cold front
will advance southeast through the lower MO and mid MS Valleys, with
the southwestward extension of the boundary settling south into the
southern Plains.
...Mid/lower Missouri Valley into the Mid Mississippi Valley and
upper Great Lakes...
There is good model agreement that a cluster of severe storms,
including supercells, will be ongoing at 12z Thursday across the mid
MO Valley, immediately northeast of the surface low and within a
zone of strong, low-level warm advection. The early-day storms are
expected to grow upscale into an organized MCS with embedded
supercell and bowing structures across IA by mid to late morning
amidst a rapidly destabilizing air mass, which will be coincident
with strong low-level and deep-layer shear. As such, the potential
for tornadoes (some strong) and corridors of destructive winds in
excess of 75 mph is expected to increase significantly during the
morning. The intensifying MCS and its related destructive wind and
tornado threat is expected to move into southern WI and northern IL
by early to mid afternoon, and eventually into lower MI by late
afternoon into evening.
An additional wave of supercells and/or bowing structures is
expected to develop along the trailing outflow from the lead MCS, as
well as along the cold front from eastern IA and northern IL into
the mid MS Valley during the afternoon into evening. Those storms
will be capable of tornadoes, large to very large hail, and damaging
winds with significant gusts, which could become widespread should
storm mode transition to a bowing line.
...Eastern Kansas into the Southern Plains...
Thunderstorm development is anticipated by mid to late afternoon
along the cold front amidst a moderate to strongly unstable air
mass. The models indicate the strongest deep-layer shear remaining
within the post-frontal environment. Nonetheless, there is some
signal for 30-40 kt of effective bulk shear to cross the eastern KS
and western MO segment of the front at an oblique angle, which will
be supportive of supercell storm modes with a risk for large to very
large hail and severe wind gusts. Deep-layer shear vectors are
forecast to align largely parallel with the front across the
southern Plains, which may contribute to downshear storm seeding,
leading to more messy modes. Nonetheless, the degree of instability
will favor vigorous up/downdrafts capable of large hail and damaging
winds.
...Mid-Atlantic into central Appalachians...
Daytime heating coupled with dewpoints in the 60s to low 70s are
expected to yield a weakly capped and moderate to strongly unstable
afternoon air mass. Forcing for ascent associated with the
disturbances mentioned in the synopsis are expected to foster
multiple clusters of thunderstorms capable of damaging winds,
especially if organized cold pools can develop. There is some model
signal that a corridor of slightly stronger low-level and deep-layer
shear will materialize across the lower Hudson Valley Thursday
afternoon, which would support some potential for supercells capable
of large hail and perhaps a brief tornado.
..Mead.. 06/10/2026
Read more
SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0225 AM CDT Wed Jun 10 2026
Valid 121200Z - 131200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
MID-ATLANTIC INTO CENTRAL APPALACHIANS...
...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe storms capable of damaging winds and some large
hail are possible across the Mid-Atlantic into Central Appalachians
Friday afternoon and evening.
...Synopsis...
A short-wave trough over the upper Great Lakes and OH Valley Friday
morning will progress through southwest Ontario to along the St.
Lawrence Valley, with a corridor of height falls and stronger
mid-level winds overspreading the lower Great Lakes into
Mid-Atlantic. At the surface, a cold front will move through the
lower Great Lakes and central Appalachians before merging with lee
troughing east of the northern and central Appalachians.
...Mid-Atlantic into Central Appalachians...
A hot and moist air mass is expected to exist across the pre-frontal
warm sector Friday afternoon with temperatures in the upper 80s to
upper 90s and dewpoints in the 60s to low/mid 70s. While mid-level
lapse rates are expected to remain modest, the high theta-e boundary
layer will largely contribute to moderate instability. The glancing
influence of the short-wave trough coupled with convergence along
the cold front and lee trough, in addition to terrain influences are
expected to foster scattered to numerous thunderstorms through the
peak of the diurnal heating cycle.
The strongest vertical shear of 30-40 kt is forecast from the lower
OH Valley into the lower Great Lakes, where the potential will exist
for some transient supercell and bowing structures capable of large
hail and damaging winds. Vertical shear will be comparatively weaker
along the lee trough; however, both low-level lapse rates and
instability will be greater, supporting potential for damaging
downburst winds and marginally severe hail. There is some model
signal that storms will coalesce into multiple clusters by late
afternoon into early evening with a potentially more concentrated
area of damaging winds reaching the Mid-Atlantic Coast.
...Mid-South into the Central and South High Plains...
Moderate to strong instability is forecast south of the surface
front, which is expected to stall across the discussion area. In the
absence of appreciable forcing for ascent, the models vary on the
location and coverage of diurnally enhanced storms, which could pose
some severe-weather threat. Severe-weather probabilities may
eventually be added to some of the area once confidence in storm
evolution becomes more clear.
..Mead.. 06/10/2026
Read more
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1234 AM CDT Wed Jun 10 2026
Valid 101200Z - 111200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR EAST-CENTRAL WYOMING AND FAR
NORTHWEST NEBRASKA...
...Synopsis...
An elongated upper trough will extend from the Pacific Northwest to
the Upper Midwest with an attendant 60-80 kt jet across the Rockies,
aiding in surface low development over eastern CO/western KS.
Amplified westerly flow aloft and surface troughing will enhance
windy conditions amid a dry airmass across the Great Basin into the
central Plains, continuing widespread fire concerns as fuels
approach critical thresholds. At the base of the exiting upper
trough, deep northerly flow will promote dry and breezy conditions
into the Sacramento Valley where dry fine fuels exist.
...Eastern Great Basin, Colorado Plateau and central High Plains...
Strong westerly surface winds in the wake of a cold front beneath
pronounced mid-level flow will continue fire weather concerns across
portions of the central Plains today. West winds of 25-30 mph and RH
as low as 15% will align with pockets of dry fuels, maintaining a
Critical fire weather threat in eastern WY and far northwestern NE.
Weaker, but still impactful westerly flow will support Elevated fire
weather conditions in the eastern Great Basin and Four Corners
regions as westerly 10-15 mph winds and RH values of 10-15% overlap
dry fuels. Across portions of southeast UT, a fairly small corridor
may experience localized areas of briefly critical winds
(west-southwesterly at 15-25 mph) amidst widespread warm and dry
conditions.
...Sacramento Valley...
Dry, post-frontal northerly flow funneling into the Sacramento
Valley will promote an Elevated fire weather threat to the region
and adjacent valley foothills. Sustained northerly winds of 10-15
mph (locally up to 20 mph) and RH at or below 15% are expected to
coalesce amid receptive fuels to support fire spread. Dry and breezy
conditions will persist into the overnight hours, leading to an
extended burning period and continued fire weather concerns on Day
2/Thursday.
..Elizalde-Garcia.. 06/10/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1235 AM CDT Wed Jun 10 2026
Valid 111200Z - 121200Z
...Synopsis...
A compact upper trough will exit the Great Basin region on Day
2/Thursday afternoon, traversing the High Plains and moving over the
Upper Midwest in the late evening. A surface low will eject out of
the southern Rockies on Day 1/Wednesday, developing northeastward to
the Great Lakes region and sending a cold front southward through
the southern Plains on Day 2/Thursday. An amplifying upper ridge
over the eastern Pacific will promote warm and dry conditions across
the Interior West, though much lighter winds (compared to previous
days) will bring some relief to the fire environment. However, very
dry fuels will continue to support Elevated fire concerns.
...Four Corners, southern Colorado Rockies and adjacent High
Plains...
As the upper trough and attendant surface low exit the region,
surface troughing over the Four Corners and Colorado Plateau will
support westerly winds up to 15 mph amid 10-15% RH. In the wake of a
cold front, veering north-easterly 15-20 mph winds (gusts up to 30
mph) and RH values of 10-20% will spread across portions of the
southern Rockies and adjacent High Plains. Elevated highlights have
been introduced to account for these conditions where dry fuels
exist.
...Sacramento Valley...
Northerly winds of 10-15 mph on Day 1/Wednesday will persist into
the morning of Day 2/Thursday with very poor humidity recoveries (RH
values of 20-30% overnight). As an upper ridge over the eastern
Pacific pushes the upper trough eastward, northwesterly flow aloft
will weaken and shift more westerly. Northerly surface winds will
gradually decrease throughout the afternoon, however the fire
concerns remain as 10-15% RH persists into the evening. An extended
burning period and dry fine fuels support Elevated highlights within
the Valley and adjacent foothills.
..Elizalde-Garcia.. 06/10/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
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