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  Saturday July 18, 2026

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SPC Severe Thunderstorm Watch 497

WW 497 SEVERE TSTM MT 182140Z - 190400Z
      
WW 0497 Image

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 497
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
340 PM MDT Sat Jul 18 2026

The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of 
  Central Montana

* Effective this Saturday afternoon and evening from 340 PM until
  1000 PM MDT.

* Primary threats include...
  Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely
  Scattered large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible

SUMMARY...Thunderstorms will continue to develop off the mountains
of western Montana and spread northeastward.  High-based storms
capable of damaging winds and hail are possible.

The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 80
statute miles east and west of a line from 50 miles east southeast
of Dillon MT to 45 miles north northeast of Great Falls MT. For a
complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline
update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU7).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.

&&

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 492...WW 493...WW
494...WW 495...WW 496...

AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A
few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector
26030.

...Hart

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SPC Severe Thunderstorm Watch 497 Status Reports

WW 0497 Status Updates
      
WW 0497 Status Image

STATUS REPORT ON WW 497

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.

..HART..07/19/26

ATTN...WFO...TFX...BYZ...


STATUS REPORT FOR WS 497 

SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS 

MTC005-007-013-015-027-031-041-043-045-049-051-057-059-067-073-
097-099-107-190140-

MT 
.    MONTANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

BLAINE               BROADWATER          CASCADE             
CHOUTEAU             FERGUS              GALLATIN            
HILL                 JEFFERSON           JUDITH BASIN        
LEWIS AND CLARK      LIBERTY             MADISON             
MEAGHER              PARK                PONDERA             
SWEET GRASS          TETON               WHEATLAND           


THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY.  PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.

Read more

SPC Severe Thunderstorm Watch 496 Status Reports

WW 0496 Status Updates
      
WW 0496 Status Image

STATUS REPORT ON WW 496

SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SSW GSO
TO 30 WSW AVC TO 10 S AVC TO 15 NW GSB.

WW 496 WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 190100Z.

..HART..07/19/26

ATTN...WFO...LWX...AKQ...RAH...RNK...


STATUS REPORT FOR WS 496 

SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS 

NCC001-037-063-069-077-135-151-181-183-190100-

NC 
.    NORTH CAROLINA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

ALAMANCE             CHATHAM             DURHAM              
FRANKLIN             GRANVILLE           ORANGE              
RANDOLPH             VANCE               WAKE                


THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY.  PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.

Read more

SPC Tornado Watch 495 Status Reports

WW 0495 Status Updates
      
WW 0495 Status Image

STATUS REPORT ON WW 495

SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NNW SBY
TO 20 SSW ACY TO 20 NE ACY TO 15 ENE NEL.

..HART..07/18/26

ATTN...WFO...PHI...LWX...


STATUS REPORT FOR WT 495 

SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS 

NJC001-009-029-190040-

NJ 
.    NEW JERSEY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

ATLANTIC             CAPE MAY            OCEAN               


ANZ431-450-451-452-453-454-455-190040-

CW 

.    ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE

DELAWARE BAY WATERS SOUTH OF EAST POINT NJ TO SLAUGHTER BEACH DE 

COASTAL WATERS FROM SANDY HOOK TO MANASQUAN INLET NJ OUT 20 NM 

COASTAL WATERS FROM MANASQUAN INLET TO LITTLE EGG INLET NJ OUT 20
NM 

COASTAL WATERS FROM LITTLE EGG INLET TO GREAT EGG INLET NJ OUT 20
NM 

COASTAL WATERS FROM GREAT EGG INLET TO CAPE MAY NJ OUT 20 NM 
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SPC Severe Thunderstorm Watch 494 Status Reports

WW 0494 Status Updates
      
WW 0494 Status Image

STATUS REPORT ON WW 494

SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 WSW ELM
TO 10 NNW ELM TO 30 SE UCA.

..HART..07/18/26

ATTN...WFO...BUF...BGM...


STATUS REPORT FOR WS 494 

SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS 

NYC007-015-017-023-025-077-097-101-105-107-109-190040-

NY 
.    NEW YORK COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

BROOME               CHEMUNG             CHENANGO            
CORTLAND             DELAWARE            OTSEGO              
SCHUYLER             STEUBEN             SULLIVAN            
TIOGA                TOMPKINS            


PAC015-069-079-103-115-127-131-190040-

PA 
.    PENNSYLVANIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

BRADFORD             LACKAWANNA          LUZERNE             
PIKE                 SUSQUEHANNA         WAYNE               
WYOMING              


LEZ020-LOZ030-190040-

CW 

Read more

SPC Severe Thunderstorm Watch 493 Status Reports

WW 0493 Status Updates
      
WW 0493 Status Image

STATUS REPORT ON WW 493

SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 WSW VPZ
TO 15 NNW LAF TO 10 SSE DNV.

..HART..07/18/26

ATTN...WFO...LOT...IWX...GRR...DTX...


STATUS REPORT FOR WS 493 

SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS 

ILC053-075-091-182340-

IL 
.    ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

FORD                 IROQUOIS            KANKAKEE            


INC007-111-182340-

IN 
.    INDIANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

BENTON               NEWTON              


THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY.  PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.

Read more

SPC Severe Thunderstorm Watch 492 Status Reports

WW 0492 Status Updates
      
WW 0492 Status Image

STATUS REPORT ON WW 492

SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 NNE PKB
TO 30 SW DUJ TO 40 ESE IPT.

WW 492 WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 190100Z.

..HART..07/19/26

ATTN...WFO...CLE...PBZ...CTP...


STATUS REPORT FOR WS 492 

SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS 

PAC001-005-009-013-021-027-037-041-043-051-055-057-059-061-063-
067-071-075-087-093-097-099-107-109-111-119-125-129-133-
190100-

PA 
.    PENNSYLVANIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

ADAMS                ARMSTRONG           BEDFORD             
BLAIR                CAMBRIA             CENTRE              
COLUMBIA             CUMBERLAND          DAUPHIN             
FAYETTE              FRANKLIN            FULTON              
GREENE               HUNTINGDON          INDIANA             
JUNIATA              LANCASTER           LEBANON             
MIFFLIN              MONTOUR             NORTHUMBERLAND      
PERRY                SCHUYLKILL          SNYDER              
SOMERSET             UNION               WASHINGTON          
WESTMORELAND         YORK                


WVC049-051-061-069-077-103-190100-

WV 
.    WEST VIRGINIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
Read more

SPC MD 1656

MD 1656 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 497... FOR PARTS OF WESTERN/CENTRAL MT
MD 1656 Image


Mesoscale Discussion 1656
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0635 PM CDT Sat Jul 18 2026

Areas affected...Parts of western/central MT

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 497...

Valid 182335Z - 190130Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 497
continues.

SUMMARY...Some increase in severe-wind potential is possible through
the evening. Isolated hail also remains possible.

DISCUSSION...As of 2330 UTC, widely scattered storms are ongoing
across parts of western MT. In the short term, the severe threat may
remain rather isolated, with moderate buoyancy and steep lapse rates
supporting a threat of localized hail and severe gusts. With time,
as both midlevel flow and storm coverage gradually strengthen over
the region, one or more outflow-driven clusters may evolve and pose
an increasing severe-wind threat into this evening. Some severe
threat may eventually develop north of WW 497, and trends will
continue to be monitored regarding the need for local watch
expansion.

..Dean.. 07/18/2026

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BYZ...GGW...TFX...MSO...

LAT...LON   45761352 47971301 48971205 49031139 49061025 49020950
            48980903 47650881 46560952 45941010 45511068 45151132
            44971202 45101278 45761352 

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN

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SPC Jul 19, 2026 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
      
Day 1 Outlook Image
Day 1 Convective Outlook CORR 1
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0809 PM CDT Sat Jul 18 2026

Valid 190100Z - 191200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ...

CORRECTED FOR INCORRECT CATEGORICAL LINES

...SUMMARY...
Storms capable of wind damage may continue for another hour or so
across central Pennsylvania before dissipating. Additional
strong-to-severe thunderstorms capable of damaging winds and hail
will be likely across portions western Montana

... 01Z Update ...

Overall thunderstorm intensity continues to wane across much of the
northeast with the loss of daytime heating and multiple rounds of
thunderstorms acting to stabilize the airmass. However, a few
damaging thunderstorm wind gusts will be possible from far eastern
Ohio into southern New England for perhaps another hour or two. The
most likely area for wind damage is across central Pennsylvania
where the most intense thunderstorms are currently found. These
storms should weaken further in the next couple of hours, bringing
an end to the organized severe threat.

Across western Montana, sufficient buoyancy is in place to support
ongoing convection, some of which has produced severe wind gusts
this afternoon. Steep lapse rates coupled with gradually
strengthening mid-level flow will support an ongoing severe threat,
including a couple of outflow-driven convective clusters. Please see
MCD #1656 for more details.

..Marsh.. 07/19/2026

Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
          
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook Image
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0501 PM CDT Sat Jul 18 2026

Valid 201200Z - 261200Z

...Synopsis...
The extended forecast period exhibits a critical fire weather
pattern for the Pacific Northwest and parts of northern California.
A broad mid-level ridge will dominate over much of Intermountain
West through early next week as troughing across the northeastern
U.S. amplifies midweek. Model guidance suggests better chances of
dry thunderstorm impacts for the Pacific Northwest emerging as early
as Day 3/Monday as moisture from tropical storm Elida gets wrapped
up along the northwestern periphery of the upper ridge. Beyond Day
5/Wednesday, an incoming upper trough and influence from tropical
storm Elida are expected to contribute to the breakdown of the upper
ridge, encouraging dry air and gusty winds to overlap portions of
the Northwest where lightning activity is forecast early in the
forecast period.

...Days 3-5/Monday-Wednesday...
The thunderstorm threat across CA and the Pacific Northwest remains
very sensitive to the expected track of a subtropical moisture plume
from tropical storm Elida. Thunderstorms could threaten
central/northern CA as early as Day 3/Monday, moving into the
Pacific Northwest by Days 4-5/Tuesday-Wednesday. While forecast
PWATs range from 0.9-1.3", fast storm motions may limit
precipitation efficiency, generating greater ignition potential as
the fuelscape remains receptive. For this outlook, 10% dry
thunderstorm probabilities were introduced on Day 3/Monday for the
initial surge of subtropical moisture into northern CA and southern
OR. Additional probabilities and adjustments may be needed in future
outlooks as the upper pattern is better resolved.

...Days 6-8/Thursday-Saturday...
Following several days of mixed wet/dry thunderstorm potential,
longer term ensemble guidance suggests a return to dry and breezy
conditions across portions of CA and the Pacific Northwest beginning
Day 6/Thursday. Ensemble cluster analysis suggests a more inland
push of an upper-trough into the Pacific Northwest on Day 7/Friday,
with broader 40% Critical probabilities expanded (and introduced on
Day 8/Saturday) across WA/OR into far southwest ID.

..Elizalde-Garcia.. 07/18/2026

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

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