RSS Mesoscale Discussions from Storm Prediction Center
WW 414 SEVERE TSTM MN 291515Z - 292100Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 414
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1015 AM CDT Mon Jun 29 2026
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of
Northern and central Minnesota
* Effective this Monday morning and afternoon from 1015 AM until
400 PM CDT.
* Primary threats include...
Scattered damaging winds likely with isolated significant gusts
to 80 mph possible
Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2
inches in diameter possible
A tornado or two possible
SUMMARY...A well-organized and fast-moving storm complex will
continue generally northeastward across north-central/northern
Minnesota through the afternoon, with damaging winds and large hail
as the primary hazards.
The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 65
statute miles north and south of a line from 55 miles south
southwest of Bemidji MN to 40 miles north northeast of Duluth MN.
For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch
outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU4).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.
&&
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 413...
AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 70 knots. A
few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 600. Mean storm motion vector
23040.
...Guyer
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WW 0414 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 414
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 ENE AXN
TO 40 W BRD TO 20 NNW BJI.
..MEAD..06/29/26
ATTN...WFO...DLH...MPX...FGF...
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 414
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
MNC001-017-021-035-057-061-065-071-095-097-115-137-153-159-
291840-
MN
. MINNESOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
AITKIN CARLTON CASS
CROW WING HUBBARD ITASCA
KANABEC KOOCHICHING MILLE LACS
MORRISON PINE ST. LOUIS
TODD WADENA
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
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WW 0413 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 413
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NW AXN TO
40 NE FAR.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1379
..MEAD..06/29/26
ATTN...WFO...FGF...ABR...BIS...FSD...
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 413
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
MNC005-087-111-291740-
MN
. MINNESOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BECKER MAHNOMEN OTTER TAIL
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
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MD 1380 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY FOR CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
Mesoscale Discussion 1380
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1241 PM CDT Mon Jun 29 2026
Areas affected...Central North Dakota
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely
Valid 291741Z - 291945Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent
SUMMARY...The potential for severe thunderstorms capable of all
hazards is expected to increase by 19-20Z. A watch is likely.
DISCUSSION...Recent trends in visible satellite and radar data
indicate a gradual increase in shower and thunderstorm development
across western ND into northwest SD. That activity is located to the
west of a n-s-oriented stationary front/inverted trough located over
central ND and within a zone of increased forcing for ascent
preceding a short-wave trough and associated mid-level jet streak
pivoting through eastern WY. To the east of the front, dewpoints in
the 70s and a gradually warming boundary layer are contributing to a
moderately unstable and increasingly uncapped air mass with MLCAPE
of 1000-2000+ J/kg, per latest objective analysis.
The current expectation is for surface-based storm development to
occur in the vicinity of the front/trough by 19-20Z within a
kinematic environment featuring low-level easterly winds veering to
southerly in the mid/upper levels with 50-60 kt of effective bulk
shear. As such, the potential will exist for initial supercell storm
modes with an associated risk for large to very large hail and
perhaps a few tornadoes. There is some signal in recent CAM guidance
that initial storms could evolve into bowing segments, which would
be supportive of an increased damaging wind threat.
..Mead/Guyer.. 06/29/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...FGF...BIS...
LAT...LON 46630121 47940135 48710100 48939969 48699864 47839809
47199851 46629898 46189942 46090048 46630121
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-125 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN
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MD 1379 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 413...414... FOR PARTS OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL MINNESOTA
Mesoscale Discussion 1379
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1137 AM CDT Mon Jun 29 2026
Areas affected...parts of Northern and Central Minnesota
Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 413...414...
Valid 291637Z - 291830Z
The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 413, 414
continues.
SUMMARY...The threat for severe wind gusts and large hail will
continue with a long-lived bow echo. Tornado potential may increase
this afternoon within the southern fringe of the convective system
as it interacts with a warm front.
DISCUSSION...A long-lived bow echo over Wadena and Todd Counties as
of 1630Z has assumed more of an easterly motion over the past hour
owing to storm development/propagation on the southern fringe of the
convective system. That propagational component has resulted in the
storm system now moving parallel to a warm front lifting north
through the region. The air mass south of the warm front has become
strongly unstable with the modification of the 12z MPX sounding for
current surface conditions yielding MLCAPE as high as 4500-5000
J/kg. The strong buoyancy coincides with 45-55 kt of effective bulk
shear, per objective analysis with that parameter space supportive
of the continuation of the bow echo, assuming the convection is
fully rooted within the boundary layer.
Damaging winds with gusts of 60-80 mph will remain the primary
hazard; however, the potential for HP supercells to evolve within
the broader-scale convective complex will support a large hail
threat. The tornado threat may also increase this afternoon,
especially with any supercell structures that can become established
within the southern flank of the MCS in the vicinity of the warm
front.
..Mead.. 06/29/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...DLH...MPX...FGF...
LAT...LON 46059549 46879560 47169533 47419353 47279203 46669182
46069199 45889428 46059549
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-125 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN
Read more
SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1154 AM CDT Mon Jun 29 2026
Valid 291630Z - 301200Z
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHERN
MINNESOTA...
...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are expected today across the Dakotas, Upper
Midwest and Middle Missouri Valley, including damaging winds, large
hail and a few tornadoes this afternoon through tonight.
...Dakotas/Mid-Missouri Valley/Upper Midwest...
Of short-term focus/concern, is a long-lived storm cluster across
north-central Minnesota that has begun to grow upscale again to the
north of a warm front. Damaging winds and large hail will be
prominent concerns this afternoon, and tornado potential may
increase particularly with southern flank development near the warm
front. For additional short-term details, see Mesoscale Discussion
1379.
Later this afternoon, a very moist airmass will become very unstable
over parts of the central Plains into the Upper Midwest, including
recovery in the wake of the early day storm complex across
Minnesota. While lesser instability is expected north-northwestward
into North Dakota, more modest buoyancy and long hodographs will
support severe storms. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are
forecast by afternoon/early evening as large-scale ascent associated
with the approaching upper wave overspreads the region. Ample
deep-layer shear coupled with the large buoyancy will favor
supercells. Large to very large hail, a couple of tornadoes, and
severe wind gusts will be possible with this surface-based activity,
especially as storms grow upscale this evening and progress
into/across parts of Iowa/Minnesota.
...Kansas/Oklahoma/Texas...
Isolated high-based thunderstorms are possible near the dryline.
Moderate instability is expected within this region with generally
weak deep layer shear. Strong evaporatively cooled downdrafts will
be capable of severe wind gusts with the more intense cores.
...Southern Appalachians and parts of Georgia/Florida...
Strong to locally severe storms capable of downbursts will be
possible within a moist/unstable environment this afternoon, with
some degree of storm organization possible as aided by a modestly
stronger belt of northeasterly flow aloft.
..Guyer/Supinie.. 06/29/2026
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SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1219 PM CDT Mon Jun 29 2026
Valid 301200Z - 011200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHERN
WISCONSIN AND THE UPPER PENINSULA OF MICHIGAN...PARTS OF NEW YORK
AND VERMONT...AND THE CENTRAL PLAINS...
...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms will be possible from parts of the central High
Plains into the Upper Midwest, and across parts of the Northeast on
Tuesday.
...Northeast...
Enhanced northwesterly flow aloft on the northeastern periphery of
an amplified upper ridge will overspread the region on Tuesday. This
area will also be on the southerly periphery of a strengthening
southwesterly low-level jet oriented across Ontario/Quebec. This
will support effective shear magnitudes around 40+ kt. Supercell
structures will be possible, but most guidance suggests convection
will develop into one or more forward propagating clusters/bowing
segments. Damaging wind gusts will be the main hazard with this
activity as it moves across a very moist and moderately unstable
airmass. Given supercell wind profiles and enlarged, favorably
curved hodographs, a couple of tornadoes also will be possible,
especially if a more semi-discrete storm mode occurs. While details
in convective evolution vary some among various guidance, a
consistent signal exists (particularly across northern NY into VT)
and a Slight risk (Level 2 of 5) has been included. Convection
should gradually decrease in intensity with southeast extent toward
southern New England and the Mid-Atlantic vicinity as instability
decreases and inhibition increases.
...Upper Midwest/Great Lakes...
An upper low and attendant shortwave trough initially over the
Canadian Prairies and northern MN will gradually shift
east/northeast through the period. Height tendencies will generally
be neutral across the area given the strong upper ridge just to the
east. Enhanced southwesterly deep-layer flow will persist across the
region, with some intensification of a low-level jet by late
afternoon/evening. At the surface, a quasi-stationary boundary is
forecast to extend from near the MN Arrowhead, southward into
eastern NE at midday. To the south/east of the boundary, a very
moist airmass with 70s dewpoints is forecast. A corridor of strong
to extreme instability is depicted by some model guidance across
northern WI into the U.P. of Michigan. Convection may develop near
the surface boundary and shift east across northern portions of the
Great Lakes. If this occurs, damaging winds (some near 80 mph) could
accompany thunderstorm clusters potentially organizing into a bowing
MCS.
Some guidance develops additional convection overnight across parts
of southern MN/WI into northern IA and vicinity. This activity would
be supported by a warm front lifting northward across the central
Plains and Mid-MO Valley and an intensifying southwesterly low-level
jet. While ample instability will exist across the area, it is
uncertain if this activity would be surfaced-based. Nevertheless, a
favorable thermodynamic and kinematic environment would support some
severe wind/hail risk.
...Southern/Central High Plains...
Modest height falls are forecast as a midlevel shortwave impulse
ejected across the central Rockies into NE/SD from late afternoon
into the overnight hours. A surface trough/dryline will sharpen as a
result, and southerly low-level flow will transport low 60s
dewpoints northward along the boundary beneath steep midlevel lapse
rates. High-based convection is expected to develop by late
afternoon and shift east/northeast through evening. Initial
supercells could produce large to very large hail. With time, some
upscale development could occur via consolidating outflows and as
the low-level jet increases during the evening. This could bring an
increasing risk for damaging winds, a few possibly approaching 80
mph. Given a consistent signal across various CAMs, deterministic
and ML/AI guidance, a Slight risk (level 2 of 5) has been added.
...LA/MS/AL/GA/FL Panhandle...
Forecast guidance depicts 25-35 kt midlevel northeasterly flow on
the southern periphery of an upper high centered over the OH/TN
Valley. A very moist airmass will be present across much of the
region and strong destabilization is forecast amid strong daytime
heating. Forecast soundings depict around 20-30 kt effective shear
magnitudes, supporting some risk of organized cells/clusters.
Isolated damaging wind gusts are possible as activity develops
west/southwest through early evening.
..Leitman.. 06/29/2026
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SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1157 AM CDT Mon Jun 29 2026
Valid 291700Z - 301200Z
...Afternoon Update...
Only slight adjustments were made to the Elevated fire weather risk
area to include more of the southeastern CO Plains. Localized
critical fire weather conditions are expected along the
central-southern CO/northern NM Mountain chain into the adjacent
foothills. Strong southwesterly flow aloft is currently traversing
the southern Rockies while lee surface troughing tightens east of
the higher terrain, promoting gusty gap-flow and downslope winds
through the afternoon. Current surface observations depict
widespread RH values below 20% and some areas gusting over 40 mph (a
few observed 50+ mph gusts in south-central CO), with these
conditions already impacting the Aspen Acres wildfire. The smaller
spatial extent of expected fire weather conditions limits the
introduction of broader Critical highlights; however, very gusty
winds and low RH will further exacerbate the fire environment,
increasing concerns for rapid spread/fire growth on existing
wildfires and new ignitions. In addition, some mid-level moisture
may advect slightly more northward into Rio Grande Valley and
central-northern NM higher terrain later tonight. A lightning
ignition cannot be ruled out with any storms that may develop
(especially where drier fuels exist), though anticipated coverage
limits the introduction of dry thunderstorm highlights.
In southeast WY and the NE Panhandle, sparse fuels preclude the
expansion of Elevated highlights. However, dry and breezy conditions
may support localized fire concerns where pockets of drier fuels
exist.
..Elizalde-Garcia.. 06/29/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0156 AM CDT Mon Jun 29 2026/
...Synopsis...
Longwave upper troughing will remain positioned across the
Intermountain West today. While the strongest mid-level flow will
transition northeastward in tandem a northeastward-ejecting
mid-level shortwave, a second mid-level shortwave rotating
southeastward across California and the western Great Basin will
help maintain enhanced mid-level flow across much of the Great Basin
and Southwest. Combined with a persistent dry air mass and lingering
enhanced mid-level flow, this will continue to support expansive
fire weather concerns across portions of the Great Basin and
Southwest today.
...Southwest/Four Corners region...
The aforementioned enhanced mid-level flow continuing to linger
across portions of the Southwest and Four Corners region will
support a corridor of sustained southwesterly surface winds of 15-20
mph this afternoon. With RH values forecast in the 10-15% range and
several days of antecedent dry/windy conditions exacerbating fuel
dryness/receptiveness (ERCs in the 80th to 95th percentiles or
greater), this will promote elevated to locally critical fire
weather concerns across much of Arizona, southeastern Utah,
western/central Colorado, western/central New Mexico, and southern
Wyoming. Deep boundary layer mixing will also support occasional
wind gusts to 30-35 mph across much of this region.
The best chance for locally critical conditions to emerge will
extend from central Colorado southward into north-central New
Mexico, where ERCs are noted to range from the 90th to 99th
percentiles. Modestly stronger mid-level flow is forecast to linger
later into the afternoon across this region, which should promote
marginally stronger sustained surface winds and occasional wind
gusts of 30-40 mph. An upgrade to Critical was considered for this
area, but uncertainty remains regarding a longer duration and
broader overlap of 20+ mph sustained winds and RH less than 15%. A
targeted upgrade could be needed in the D1 update should
guidance/observations indicate the development of critical wind/RH
conditions across a more widespread area within this region.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
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