RSS Mesoscale Discussions from Storm Prediction Center
WW 271 TORNADO MN ND SD 032105Z - 040400Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Tornado Watch Number 271
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
405 PM CDT Wed Jun 3 2026
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Tornado Watch for portions of
Far Western Minnesota
Southeast North Dakota
Central and Eastern South Dakota
* Effective this Wednesday afternoon and evening from 405 PM
until 1100 PM CDT.
* Primary threats include...
A couple tornadoes possible
Scattered large hail likely with isolated very large hail events
to 2 inches in diameter possible
Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible
SUMMARY...Thunderstorms are expected to develop along and ahead of a
cold front moving southeastward across the central Dakotas. If a
discrete storm mode can be maintained, environmental conditions
support supercells capable of all severe hazards, including
tornadoes and isolated very large hail. Storms along the front will
likely be more linear, with damaging gusts as the primary risk.
The tornado watch area is approximately along and 55 statute miles
east and west of a line from 45 miles northwest of Fargo ND to 50
miles south of Chamberlain SD. For a complete depiction of the watch
see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU1).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for
tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch
area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for
threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements
and possible warnings.
&&
AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail
surface and aloft to 2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind
gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean
storm motion vector 24025.
...Mosier
Read more
WW 0271 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 271
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..DEAN..06/03/26
ATTN...WFO...ABR...FGF...BIS...FSD...UNR...
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 271
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
MNC011-027-107-155-167-032340-
MN
. MINNESOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BIG STONE CLAY NORMAN
TRAVERSE WILKIN
NDC003-017-021-039-073-077-081-091-097-032340-
ND
. NORTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BARNES CASS DICKEY
GRIGGS RANSOM RICHLAND
SARGENT STEELE TRAILL
SDC003-005-011-013-015-017-023-025-029-035-037-039-043-045-049-
051-053-057-059-061-065-067-069-073-075-077-079-085-087-089-091-
095-097-109-111-115-117-119-121-123-032340-
SD
. SOUTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
Read more
MD 0972 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR NORTHEAST ND INTO NORTHWEST MN
Mesoscale Discussion 0972
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0510 PM CDT Wed Jun 03 2026
Areas affected...Northeast ND into northwest MN
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 032210Z - 040015Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent
SUMMARY...Strong to locally severe storms may increase into the
evening.
DISCUSSION...Storms are gradually increasing in coverage and
intensity late this afternoon across eastern ND, along east of a
surface trough. A mid/upper-level shortwave trough/low moving across
the Canadian Prairies will help to sustain this convection into the
evening, with storms expected to spread across parts of northeast ND
into northwest MN. While both low-level and deep-layer shear will
tend to be stronger across the area covered by WW 271, moderate
buoyancy (MLCAPE of 1000-1500 J/kg) and effective shear of 25-35 kt
will support occasional storm organization, including potential for
hail, localized strong/damaging gusts, and possibly a brief tornado.
While the magnitude and coverage of the severe threat across
northeast ND/northwest MN is expected to be less than areas farther
south, and additional watch issuance is considered unlikely, trends
will be monitored for an uptick in storm coverage/intensity into the
early evening.
..Dean/Guyer.. 06/03/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...FGF...
LAT...LON 47739532 47809707 47809752 47819812 47989832 48299857
48669890 48889883 49099857 49049737 49019568 48949512
48619494 48349495 47739519 47739532
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN
Read more
MD 0971 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR NORTH-CENTRAL NEBRASKA
Mesoscale Discussion 0971
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0507 PM CDT Wed Jun 03 2026
Areas affected...North-central Nebraska
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible
Valid 032207Z - 040000Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent
SUMMARY...Thunderstorms may increase in coverage through the evening
hours. However, weaker deep-layer shear with southward extent casts
uncertainty on storm longevity and whether additional watch issuance
will be needed.
DISCUSSION...Over the past hour, deepening cumulus and initial
stages of sustained thunderstorm development have become apparent
along a surface trough and along/north of a northward propagating
outflow boundary across north-central NE. This activity is maturing
within the regional buoyancy maximum where lifted indices are on the
order of -6 to -8 C and SBCAPE is estimated upwards of 3000 J/kg.
Consequently, the intensity and coverage of convection should
increase over the next couple of hours to the south of WW 271.
However, based on latest forecast soundings and RAP mesoanalysis,
weaker mid/upper-level flow with southward extent is contributing to
effective bulk shear values on the order of 25 knots. While
supportive of marginal supercells, given the tight clustering of
developing convection evident in GOES imagery, loosely organized
multicells should be the most probable storm mode with an attendant
threat for isolated large hail and severe gusts.
Additional thunderstorm development is anticipated along the
southward advancing cold front later this evening, but focused
frontal forcing should promote more linear modes and a predominant
wind threat. Regardless, the marginal shear environment coupled with
the relatively confined spatial corridor between WW 271 and a cold
pool across south-central NE casts uncertainty on how long-lived
and/or widespread the severe threat will be.
..Moore/Guyer.. 06/03/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...FSD...OAX...GID...LBF...UNR...
LAT...LON 41430022 41500061 41690110 42000142 42350162 42660166
42880154 43010126 42969983 43019874 43079811 43069779
42929756 42679749 42339762 42139778 41859811 41679848
41529894 41429933 41419977 41430022
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN
Read more
MD 0970 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR NORTHEAST COLORADO INTO ADJACENT PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEBRASKA
Mesoscale Discussion 0970
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0450 PM CDT Wed Jun 03 2026
Areas affected...Northeast Colorado into adjacent portions of
western Nebraska
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 032150Z - 032345Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent
SUMMARY...Thunderstorms developing along the Colorado Front Range
will pose a threat for isolated severe wind gusts, and perhaps
sporadic large hail, through the evening hours. This threat should
remain sufficiently localized and transient to preclude watch
issuance.
DISCUSSION...Convection has erupted along the CO Front Range near
and north of the Denver area over the past hour. Based on recent
MRMS vertically integrated ice trends, a few of the deeper cores
appear sufficiently robust to support large hail. However,
individual convective cores have exhibited short life spans thus far
(on the order of 20-40 minutes), likely owing to the weak upslope
flow regime and meager deep-layer wind speeds. Consequently, it
appears likely that this activity will quickly become
outflow-dominant as it gradually spreads northeast into northeastern
CO along an SBCAPE axis through the evening hours. Despite the poor
kinematic environment, low-level lapse rates were recently analyzed
to be around 9 C/km, which appears reasonable based on downstream
dewpoint depressions of of 30-40 F within the effective warm sector.
As such, strong to severe downburst winds will be possible,
especially if a more consolidated, forward-propagating cold pool can
become established from the emerging convection.
Recent surface observations and radar reflectivity imagery also
depict several subtle boundaries across the High Plains, hinting
that ambient (though weak) low-level vorticity is in place across
the region. While unlikely, a landspout could occur if a
sufficiently strong updraft can develop atop one of these
boundaries. However, given the propensity for outflow-dominant
storms and meager wind shear, the overall threat is expected to
remain sufficiently localized and transient to preclude watch
issuance.
..Moore/Guyer.. 06/03/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...LBF...GLD...BOU...CYS...
LAT...LON 39270453 39310480 39530496 40290504 40910487 41580348
41620292 41400259 41060232 40780212 40330211 39970215
39640227 39430267 39270453
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN
Read more
MD 0969 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO INTO WEST TEXAS
Mesoscale Discussion 0969
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0350 PM CDT Wed Jun 03 2026
Areas affected...portions of southern New Mexico into West Texas
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 032050Z - 032315Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent
SUMMARY...Widely scattered thunderstorms will bring a risk for
isolated damaging wind gusts and perhaps an instance or two of large
hail this evening into the early overnight hours.
DISCUSSION...Latest GOES visible imagery and lightning data depict
continued thunderstorm development across high terrain areas and
along cold pool boundaries across portions of western New Mexico,
southeastern Arizona, and northern Mexico. Expectation is for this
activity to gradually evolve into southern New Mexico and West Texas
through this evening/afternoon as remaining inhibition (evident in
latest objective analysis and the 18z EPZ observed sounding) erodes.
The greatest potential for isolated severe through early this
evening appears to exist across southern New Mexico and the Big Bend
region of Texas where objective analysis and visible satellite
suggest remaining inhibition is weaker. This potential should then
gradually spread into the remainder of the discussion area (across
West Texas) later in the evening as the stronger inhibition
lingering across this area erodes and low-level lapse rates steepen.
Latest guidance and RAP forecast soundings depict deepening boundary
layer mixing through the evening amid continued insolation. This
should yield modestly deep, well-mixed boundary layer profiles by
this evening with steep low-level lapse rates and LCLs of around
2500-3000 m promoting the potential for isolated damaging wind
gusts. Weak effective shear (generally around 20 kts or less) will
largely preclude updraft organization, but some clustering/upscale
growth is possible with any coalescing cold pools. Isolated large
hail also cannot be ruled out with the most robust cores given steep
mid-level lapse rates (7.5-8+ C/km sampled by the 18z EPZ sounding).
Watch issuance is not expected at this time owing to the limited
magnitude/coverage of the severe threat.
..Chalmers/Mosier.. 06/03/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...MAF...ABQ...EPZ...
LAT...LON 29140282 30500349 31550416 32320471 32730504 33030530
33180546 33240567 33300606 33330674 33290734 33220788
33090844 32950879 32720900 32490899 32150901 31830892
31500879 31280864 31210839 31220817 31410803 31600793
31600660 31180608 30680540 30270490 29910482 29550466
29230423 28980367 28800321 28820301 29140282
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN
Read more
SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0300 PM CDT Wed Jun 03 2026
Valid 032000Z - 041200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH EARLY
TONIGHT FROM THE EASTERN DAKOTAS INTO NORTHERN NEBRASKA...
...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms with large hail, severe wind gusts, and a few
tornadoes will be possible this afternoon and evening in parts of
the northern Plains. More sporadic occurrences of large hail and
severe wind gusts appear possible across parts of the central High
Plains and southwest Texas into southern New Mexico.
...Northern/central Plains...
Only minor changes to the outlook. Thunderstorm development is
underway from north central SD into central ND along a surface
front/differential heating zone, and in advance of an embedded
mid-upper speed max. Surface temperatures of 75-80 F with dewpoints
of 58-64 F are driving MLCAPE of 1000-2000 J/kg, while deep-layer
vertical shear/hodograph length will be sufficient for supercells
initially. Low-level shear and hodograph curvature will be large
enough for a few tornadoes with the initial supercells, along with
isolated very large hail in excess of 2 inches in diameter. Upscale
growth into line segments is expected by this evening, with an
attendant increase in the threat for severe outflow gusts, prior to
the storms moving east of the primary buoyancy corridor.
Farther south, vertical shear is weaker and storms will tend more
toward multicell clusters with some transient supercell structures
capable of producing sporadic downbursts and large hail. Other
storm clustering is expected toward southwest KS, to the immediate
east of an MCV.
..Thompson.. 06/03/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1117 AM CDT Wed Jun 03 2026/
...Northern Plains...
Morning surface analysis place a wavy and diffuse cold front from
central Manitoba southwestward through central ND, western SD to a
low in the WY/NE/CO border intersection vicinity. A pair of weak
lows exist along this boundary as well, one over southwest SD and
the other across central ND. This cold front, as well as these
surface lows, will likely contribute to the development of strong to
severe thunderstorms this afternoon.
Additionally, early morning satellite imagery shows an upper low
over southern Saskatchewan, with a shortwave trough rotating through
its base over southeast MT/eastern WY. This shortwave likely has an
associated belt of stronger flow, but no upper-air data was
available to confirm its magnitude. Eastward progression of this
shortwave will result in increased large-scale ascent across the
frontal zone this afternoon, augmenting the more localized/mesoscale
ascent attendant to the surface features. This increased ascent will
occur within a diurnally destabilizing airmass where steep mid-level
lapse rates atop low to mid 60s dewpoints will likely result in 1500
to 2500 J/kg of MLCAPE by this afternoon. Deep-layer shear is also
expected to increase throughout the afternoon amid strengthening
mid-level flow attendant to the shortwave.
The resulting environment will support supercells capable of all
hazards, with the primary hazard predominantly dictated by storm
mode. Given the presence of the front, a linear mode will likely
dominate, with large to isolated very large hail as the primary risk
early in the convective cycle transitioning to damaging gusts
thereafter. Strengthening surface southerlies will contribute to
some elongation of the low-level hodograph, mostly from
central/eastern SD into far southeast ND. This area is also the most
likely to produce more discrete cells within the warm sector. As a
result, there appears to be a relative increase in the overall
tornado risk within this corridor.
...Central/Southern High Plains...
Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are expected across the region
this afternoon/evening, both within an arc through the northern and
eastern periphery of the MCV currently over northeast NM and the
northwestern TX Panhandle and along the lee troughing from eastern
CO into southern NM and Far West TX. For storms along the lee
trough, weak shear will limit storm organization, but high cloud
bases and steep low-level lapse rates could result in occasionally
strong downbursts. For storms north and east of the MCV, isolated
damaging gusts are the primary risk, although some hail could occur
over western KS where mid-level lapse rates are slightly steeper
than areas farther south.
Read more
SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0221 PM CDT Wed Jun 03 2026
Valid 051200Z - 061200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL AND
EASTERN NEBRASKA INTO IOWA...SOUTHERN MINNESOTA...AND WESTERN
WISCONSIN...
...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe storms capable of large to very large hail,
damaging winds, and perhaps a couple of tornadoes are expected
Friday afternoon into night across portions of the upper Midwest
into central Plains.
...Synopsis...
A mid-level shortwave trough will move from the northern Plains to
the Midwest on Friday with a 50 knot jet streak on it's southern
periphery. A cold front will extend from the Upper Midwest to the
central Plains. Strong to severe storms are expected along this
boundary on Friday and Friday night.
...Upper Midwest into the Central Plains...
Thunderstorm activity will likely be ongoing from northeast Kansas
to southern Wisconsin on Friday morning within a region of moderate
isentropic ascent. This activity will likely be mostly sub-severe
given relatively weak instability. As the low-level jet weakens
during the morning, expect ongoing convection to weaken. In the wake
of these morning storms, strong instability is anticipated amid
upper 60s to low 70s dewpoints and very step lapse rates. As the
mid-level trough approaches, mid-level flow will strengthen. In
addition, forecast soundings show significant lifting of the cap
between 18Z and 23Z which should result in eventual storm
development along the front during the afternoon/early evening.
Strong instability and moderate to strong shear will support the
potential for supercells, including the potential for large to very
large hail. Additionally, as the low-level jet strengthens Friday
evening, a tornado threat may materialize, conditional on supercell
storm mode in the 00Z to 03Z timeframe.
..Bentley.. 06/03/2026
Read more
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0223 PM CDT Wed Jun 03 2026
Valid 041200Z - 051200Z
An area of Elevated fire weather conditions was introduced over
portions of the Intermountain West along/behind the anticipated
position of a cold front on Day 2/Thursday. Behind this dry front,
sustained westerly winds of 10-20 mph are expected through much of
the afternoon hours. Hot and very dry (5-15% minimum RHs) conditions
supportive of deep boundary layer mixing up to 450 mb will be in
place over much of the Southwest, Great Basin, and central Rocky
Mountain regions. While some fraction of green vegetation
sporadically exists over some of this region, this combination of
wind/RH amid receptive fuel conditions will support a limited fire
weather risk. Given the right alignment of wind, RH, and very dry
fuels possible within localized portions of the drawn area, critical
thresholds could be briefly achieved.
..Stearns.. 06/03/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1242 AM CDT Wed Jun 03 2026/
...Synopsis...
Ahead of an approaching deep upper low currently offshore the
British Columbia Coast, zonal flow will overspread the Northwest
through the Upper Midwest. Multiple embedded shortwave troughs
within the downstream flow will encourage additional precipitation
across portions of Minnesota and Wisconsin, bringing some relief to
a recently receptive fuelscape. Upper ridging will continue to
flatten over the Great Lakes region, steering surface high pressure
atop the Southeast and initiating a gradual warming trend into the
weekend.
A dry airmass will persist across the Great Basin into northern
Arizona with RH values declining to less than 15%. Weaker deep layer
flow should limit widespread elevated sustained wind speeds,
precluding any highlights. However, localized fire weather concerns
may emerge in terrain-favored areas where gusty winds and critically
low RH coalesce atop drying fuels. While a broader elevated was not
introduced, these conditions will likely serve as more of a curing
event, leading to increased fire concerns this weekend as an upper
trough traverses the Northwest.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0456 PM CDT Wed Jun 03 2026
Valid 051200Z - 111200Z
...Synopsis...
The primary focus of fire weather concerns will be a potent, deep
upper-level trough over the northern Pacific that will approach the
West Coast on Day 3/Friday. This trough will push further into the
northwest CONUS on Day 4/Saturday before shifting northeastward over
the Northern Rockies by Day 5/Sunday. As this system progresses, a
cold front will sweep through the Pacific Northwest and push into
the northern Great Basin. This front will bring a temporary relief
from the heat, dropping daytime temperatures below seasonal normals
across the western third of the United States. Behind the first
trough will be another potentially stronger trough to impact the
western half of the CONUS by next week.
...Great Basin/Southwest/Rocky Mountains...
...Day 3/Friday - Day 5/Sunday...
Increasing southwesterly mid-level flow ahead of the approaching
upper-level trough will encourage a dry and breezy environment to
emerge across the Great Basin and Southwest by Day 3/Friday. 40%
Critical probabilities have been introduced where the latest
forecast guidance denotes an area of low RH and strong winds. This
potential will become more widespread and expand farther east on Day
4/Saturday and continue on Day 5/Sunday as the upper-level trough
progresses and the cold front continues its southeast progression.
Given the tighter surface pressure gradient and stronger mid-level
flow over the region, 70% probabilities of Critical fire weather
conditions were introduced across portions of eastern NV, southern
UT, and northern AZ on Day 4/Saturday and Day 5/Sunday.
...Day 6/Monday - Day 7/Tuesday...
Between the two primary mid-level trough passages, southwest flow
remains over much of the western half of the CONUS. While flow aloft
will not be as strong and the surface pressure gradient will weaken,
winds will remain strong enough coincident with persistent warm and
dry conditions to continue the fire weather threat into early next
week. Thus, 40% Critical probabilities have been introduced on Day
6/Monday and again on Day 7/Tuesday.
...Day 8/Wednesday...
Another potentially stronger trough is likely to impact the western
CONUS once again starting on Day 8/Wednesday with strong
south/southwest winds ahead of the trough. 40% Critical
probabilities have been introduced where this threat appears
strongest at this lead time, but it will likely need to be expanded
in time (beyond Day 8/Wednesday) and space as forecast guidance
reaches better consensus.
..Stearns.. 06/03/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
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