RSS Mesoscale Discussions from Storm Prediction Center
WW 22 TORNADO AR LA TX 070920Z - 071400Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Tornado Watch Number 22
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
320 AM CST Sat Mar 7 2026
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Tornado Watch for portions of
Western and Central Arkansas
Far Northwest Louisiana
Far Northeast Texas
* Effective this Saturday morning from 320 AM until 800 AM CST.
* Primary threats include...
A few tornadoes and a couple intense tornadoes possible
Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible
Isolated large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible
SUMMARY...Thunderstorms may continue to increase in coverage and
intensity this morning while posing a threat for a few tornadoes,
damaging winds, and perhaps isolated large hail. A strong tornado
appears possible with any sustained supercell.
The tornado watch area is approximately along and 60 statute miles
east and west of a line from 45 miles west northwest of Batesville
AR to 60 miles south southwest of Texarkana AR. For a complete
depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update
(WOUS64 KWNS WOU2).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for
tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch
area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for
threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements
and possible warnings.
&&
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 20...WW 21...
AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail
surface and aloft to 1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind
gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean
storm motion vector 23025.
...Gleason
Read more
WW 0022 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 22
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..DEAN..03/07/26
ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 22
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ARC019-023-027-029-039-045-051-053-057-059-061-063-071-073-081-
083-085-091-097-099-101-103-105-109-113-115-119-125-127-129-133-
137-141-145-149-071140-
AR
. ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CLARK CLEBURNE COLUMBIA
CONWAY DALLAS FAULKNER
GARLAND GRANT HEMPSTEAD
HOT SPRING HOWARD INDEPENDENCE
JOHNSON LAFAYETTE LITTLE RIVER
LOGAN LONOKE MILLER
MONTGOMERY NEVADA NEWTON
OUACHITA PERRY PIKE
POLK POPE PULASKI
SALINE SCOTT SEARCY
SEVIER STONE VAN BUREN
WHITE YELL
LAC015-017-119-071140-
LA
. LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE
Read more
WW 0021 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 21
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 NNE COU
TO 40 NE VIH TO 20 WSW SLO.
..MOORE..03/07/26
ATTN...WFO...LSX...
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 21
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ILC133-157-163-070840-
IL
. ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
MONROE RANDOLPH ST. CLAIR
MOC007-019-027-055-071-073-099-151-186-187-221-070840-
MO
. MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
AUDRAIN BOONE CALLAWAY
CRAWFORD FRANKLIN GASCONADE
JEFFERSON OSAGE STE. GENEVIEVE
ST. FRANCOIS WASHINGTON
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
Read more
WW 0020 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 20
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 W PRX TO
30 ENE TUL TO 20 SSE JLN.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0161
..MOORE..03/07/26
ATTN...WFO...TSA...OUN...
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 20
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ARC007-015-033-047-087-131-143-070940-
AR
. ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BENTON CARROLL CRAWFORD
FRANKLIN MADISON SEBASTIAN
WASHINGTON
OKC001-021-023-041-061-077-079-097-101-127-135-070940-
OK
. OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ADAIR CHEROKEE CHOCTAW
DELAWARE HASKELL LATIMER
LE FLORE MAYES MUSKOGEE
PUSHMATAHA SEQUOYAH
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
Read more
WW 0019 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 19
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 WSW SZL
TO 35 SE IRK.
..MOORE..03/07/26
ATTN...WFO...DMX...DVN...EAX...
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 19
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
MOC089-175-070840-
MO
. MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
HOWARD RANDOLPH
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
Read more
MD 0163 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR SOUTHEAST MO...SOUTHERN IL/IN...WESTERN KY
Mesoscale Discussion 0163
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0540 AM CST Sat Mar 07 2026
Areas affected...Southeast MO...southern IL/IN...western KY
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible
Valid 071140Z - 071345Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent
SUMMARY...Localized damaging wind and/or a brief tornado remain
possible through dawn.
DISCUSSION...Two north-south oriented line segments have evolved
within a broader QLCS approaching the lower Ohio Valley. The
easternmost of these segments is moving into southern IN, where the
boundary layer is unseasonably warm and moist, and very strong
low-level flow is noted from the KVWX and KIND VWPs. RAP soundings
(modified for observed surface conditions) suggest that MLCAPE has
risen into the 500-1000 J/kg range downstream of this line segment,
though some MLCINH remains. Given the strength of low-level
flow/shear, this line segment could become capable of producing
locally damaging wind and/or a brief tornado, if there is any uptick
in convective vigor and organization along the gust front.
Farther west, a line segment is moving eastward across southeast MO.
Lightning activity remains relatively vigorous with this segment,
though at least the northern portion of the line is moving along or
north of an east-west oriented outflow. The KPAH VWP also depicts
strong (though generally unidirectional) low/midlevel flow, which
could support a threat for locally damaging wind or a brief tornado.
The need for short-term watch issuance is uncertain, given the
marginal nature of the ongoing threat. However, trends will be
monitored for any uptick in organization, especially if the ongoing
line segments persist through sunrise.
..Dean/Gleason.. 03/07/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...ILN...LMK...IND...PAH...ILX...LSX...
LAT...LON 36949045 37129012 37368989 37818980 38108969 38088946
38258780 39098725 39748695 39858640 39938609 39928559
39898505 38718554 38098595 37668646 37268712 37048763
36858807 36758908 36808989 36849042 36949045
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
Read more
SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0119 AM CST Sat Mar 07 2026
Valid 091200Z - 101200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTHEAST
TEXAS INTO MISSISSIPPI...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible on Monday from
northeast Texas into Mississippi.
...ArkLaTex to Mississippi...
An upper low over northwest Mexico will begin to migrate east toward
the southern Rockies/northern Mexico on Monday. Ahead of this
feature, a subtle upper shortwave impulse will move from the
southern Plains to the Southeast. This will allow enhanced
west/southwesterly flow to overspread a moistening boundary layer
across the Lower MS Valley into the Mid-South and TN Valley.
Large-scale ascent will remain subtle. However, forecast guidance
suggests sufficiently steep lapse rates will be present to support
at least modest destabilization. Favorable deep shear also should
support organized updrafts if enough destabilization occurs within
the warm advection regime. Given modest forcing mechanisms, storm
coverage is uncertain. However, the overall environment should be at
least conditionally favorable for a few strong to severe storms
through Monday afternoon/evening across portions of the ArkLaTex
into MS.
..Leitman.. 03/07/2026
Read more
Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0234 AM CST Sat Mar 07 2026
Valid 101200Z - 151200Z
...DISCUSSION...
...Days 4-5/Tue-Wed...
An active pattern with severe thunderstorm potential is expected
Tuesday and Wednesday from the southern Plains to the Mid/Lower MS
and OH Valleys. Medium range guidance is in fairly good agreement
during this time. Starting on Tuesday, an upper low over northern
Mexico will shift east/northeast, becoming an open wave as it begins
to merge with a northern stream upper trough developing southeast
across the northern/central Plains through early Wednesday. A belt
of strong southwesterly deep-layer flow will overspread a large warm
sector on Tuesday. Lee cyclogenesis is forecast across the
central/southern High Plains, along with a second surface low
developing over IA as the northern stream upper trough approaches.
This setup will allow for a sharpening dryline/Pacific front across
the southern Plains, while a cold front develops southeast into the
MO/Mid-MS Valley overnight. Strong ascent should focus thunderstorm
development across the warm sector ahead of these surface boundaries
within a strongly sheared environment, and potentially widespread
severe thunderstorm activity is possible.
The large-scale upper trough and attendant surface cold front will
continue to progress eastward on Wednesday. Uncertainty does
increase, especially with north and east extent of severe potential.
How far east convection develops on Tuesday and how much downstream
destabilization occurs is somewhat unclear. Nevertheless, a
deepening surface cyclone is forecast to develop northeast from the
Great Lakes into Ontario and Quebec, while strong deep layer
southwesterly flow overspreads a moist warm sector ahead of the
surface front. This should set the stage for at least isolated to
scattered severe thunderstorm potential along the length of the cold
front through Wednesday evening.
Given uncertainties mentioned above, these areas are likely to be
adjusted in coming days as details become better resolved, but the
overall pattern should support a couple of active severe weather
days over a broad area.
...Day 6/Thu...
Uncertainty increases by Thursday as spread among medium range
guidance increases quite a bit with respect to the evolution/timing
of the upper trough. Some severe potential could persist/develop
across the Mid-Atlantic region, but predictability is too low to
include a 15 percent delineation at this time.
Beyond Thursday, severe thunderstorm potential will likely be low as
the upper pattern become lower amplitude and stronger westerly flow
remains confined to the northern tier of the U.S., along with Gulf
moisture largely remaining offshore behind the cold frontal passage.
Read more
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0110 AM CST Sat Mar 07 2026
Valid 071200Z - 081200Z
...Synopsis...
Early-morning surface observations show a strong cold front pushing
east through the Midwest and southeast across the Plains. This
feature is expected to continue pushing east/southeast through today
as cool temperatures and high pressure follow in its wake. A
combination of cool temperatures, recent rainfall, and widespread
rain chances today from the OH Valley into the lower MS Valley will
limit fire weather concerns for most locations east of the Rockies,
though localized fire weather potential is noted across parts of the
northern High Plains.
...Northern High Plains...
A clipper low traversing the Canadian Prairies will support
strengthening west/northwest gradient winds through the late
afternoon. Wind speeds upwards of 15-25 mph are expected and may
coincide with RH reductions into the 15-25% range within the
downslope flow regime across central to eastern WY. Fire weather
concerns will most likely be focused across far east-central WY into
adjacent portions of NE and SD where ERC values are near seasonal
highs and limited precipitation has fallen over the past 72 hours
per MRMS estimates.
...Southern California Coast...
Early-morning water-vapor imagery depicts an upper low over the
lower CO River Valley. This feature will continue to settle
southward into northwest Mexico as northeasterly mid-level winds
strengthen over southern CA. A combination of strong mid to
upper-level offshore flow coupled with a moderate offshore pressure
gradient (LAX-DAG gradient forecast to be around -5 mb) will support
east/northeast winds of 15-25 mph (gusting to 35-45 mph at times)
today through early Sunday morning. While confidence in these winds
is fairly high due to strong agreement among deterministic and
ensemble solutions, latest fuels analyses suggest that fuels remain
unsupportive of fire spread.
..Moore.. 03/07/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0112 AM CST Sat Mar 07 2026
Valid 081200Z - 091200Z
...Synopsis...
Regional fire weather concerns are expected for Sunday across parts
of the southern High Plains and potentially the northern High
Plains. Zonal flow across the Rockies is expected to strengthen
through the weekend as an upper low meanders over the lower CO River
Valley and weak upper disturbances migrate along the U.S./Canadian
border. This flow regime should promote lee troughing along the high
Plains with a corresponding uptick in dry westerly downslope flow
off the higher terrain.
...Southern High Plains...
Latest guidance hints that surface pressure falls will be regionally
most pronounced across southeast CO into southwest KS and the OK
Panhandle region. This will support 15-20 mph southwest winds across
northeast NM into the OK/TX Panhandles. Dry conditions will already
be in place in the wake of Friday's frontal passage, so confidence
is reasonably high in observing RH reductions into the teens to low
20s. Active fires across the area over the past three days indicate
that fuels are receptive amid ongoing drought conditions.
...Northern High Plains...
As with D1/Saturday, a progressive shortwave trough migrating along
the International border will support some increase west/northwest
winds along the northern High Plains Sunday afternoon. However, with
surface pressure falls more focused across northeast MT, confidence
in sustained 15-20 mph winds is somewhat lower across eastern WY and
SD. Regardless, localized elevated fire weather conditions are
possible as RH values fall to near 20% across a region with
receptive fuels.
...Southern California Coast...
An offshore wind event will likely be ongoing at the start of the
forecast period and is expected to peak Sunday morning between 14-18
UTC before gradually abating later in the day. Sustained winds
between 20-25 mph are expected with gusts as high as 45 mph possible
within the lee of the coastal terrain. Despite fairly high
confidence in critical wind speeds, recent fuel analyses show that
fuels are currently not receptive to fire spread.
..Moore.. 03/07/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
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