RSS Mesoscale Discussions from Storm Prediction Center
No watches are valid as of Mon Mar 2 13:05:02 UTC 2026.
MD 0126 CONCERNING WINTER MIXED PRECIPITATION FOR EASTERN INDIANA...CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN OHIO...AND NORTHERN KENTUCKY.
Mesoscale Discussion 0126
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0529 AM CST Mon Mar 02 2026
Areas affected...Eastern Indiana...central and southern Ohio...and
northern Kentucky.
Concerning...Winter mixed precipitation
Valid 021129Z - 021400Z
SUMMARY...Moderate snow and light to moderate freezing rain/sleet
will continue this morning.
DISCUSSION...Moderate isentropic ascent ahead of a weak mid-level
shortwave trough has resulted in a broad region of light to moderate
precipitation within the Ohio Valley. On the northern extent of this
precipitation shield, some frontogenetical banding (centered around
700mb) has resulted in moderate snow across portions of eastern
Indiana into central Ohio. South of this snow band, warmer
temperatures aloft have resulted in a combination of sleet and
freezing rain. The wet-bulb zero line is centered near I-64 this
morning and will likely delineate the area to the south with mostly
rain and the area to the north which could see some ice accretion
(up to 0.05 inches per hour) for a few hours this morning.
This combination of moderate snow across central Ohio and mixed
precipitation across southeast Indiana, southern Ohio, and northern
Kentucky will continue through mid morning, before temperatures warm
above freezing and it changes to all rain across most of the region
by late morning.
..Bentley.. 03/02/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...PBZ...RLX...JKL...ILN...LMK...IWX...IND...
LAT...LON 40388538 40288374 40018241 39478148 39038180 38368254
38228376 38228476 38318556 38478609 38708643 39228657
39768640 40388538
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SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0630 AM CST Mon Mar 02 2026
Valid 021300Z - 031200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Organized severe thunderstorms are not forecast today and tonight.
...Synopsis and Discussion...
An upper trough will move eastward across the Intermountain
West/Great Basin to the central Rockies and adjacent High Plains
through the period. Although low-level moisture will remain quite
limited, cool temperatures aloft and large-scale ascent preceding
the upper trough should encourage isolated to scattered
thunderstorms across these areas today and tonight. Instability is
expected to remain too limited to support an organized severe
threat, although occasional gusty winds may occur.
Isolated thunderstorms appear possible mainly tonight into early
Tuesday morning across parts of the mid MS Valley and vicinity,
aided mainly by increasing low-level warm/moist advection and the
development of weak MUCAPE. Farther east, convection capable of
producing occasional lightning may also occur across parts of
coastal NC and south FL. Weak shear and/or instability across all
these regions should preclude a meaningful severe threat today.
..Gleason/Bentley.. 03/02/2026
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SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0224 AM CST Mon Mar 02 2026
Valid 041200Z - 051200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND WESTERN OZARKS...
...SUMMARY...
Severe storms with large hail and damaging wind gusts will be
possible on Wednesday from the southern Plains into the western
Ozarks. Marginally severe storms will be possible from the northern
Ozarks into the Ohio Valley.
...Southern Plains/Western Ozarks...
At mid-levels, a shortwave trough will move into the southern and
central Plains on Wednesday. At the surface, a cold front will
advance southeastward into the southern Plains and western Ozarks.
Ahead of the front, surface dewpoints will be in the 60s F. As
surface temperatures warm during the day across this moist airmass,
pockets of moderate instability appear likely to develop from
north-central and northeast Texas into southeastern Oklahoma and
western Arkansas. As low-level convergence increases near the front
in the afternoon, scattered thunderstorms are expected to form.
Isolated thunderstorms will also be possible to the south and east
of the front over the warm sector. Forecast soundings at 21Z from
northeast Texas into western Arkansas have MLCAPE peaking in the
1200 to 1500 J/kg range, with 0-6 km shear around 40 knots. In
addition, 700 to 500 mb lapse rates are forecast to be in the 7.5 to
8 C/km range. This environment will support severe thunderstorms in
the afternoon and evening, with a potential for large hail and
severe wind gusts, and perhaps a tornado threat. The severe threat
will be maximized in areas with supercell development. The severe
threat will likely persist into the late evening as a low-level jet
strengthens.
...Northern Ozarks/Mid Mississippi and Ohio Valleys...
West-southwesterly mid-level flow will be located from the mid
Mississippi Valley eastward into the Ohio Valley on Wednesday. At
the surface, a low will move eastward from northern Missouri into
north-central Illinois during the day. A warm front will advance
northward across Illinois, Indiana and Ohio. To the south of the
warm front, surface dewpoints in the 50s F will contribute to the
development of weak instability. Along the instability axis, a 30 to
40 knot low-level jet is forecast to consolidate over the Ohio
Valley in the afternoon and evening. Lift associated with the
low-level jet will support the formation of isolated to scattered
thunderstorms. Effective shear near 40 knots and 700-500 mb lapse
rates around 7.5 C/km should be favorable for a marginal severe
threat. Hail and isolated severe wind gusts will be possible.
..Broyles.. 03/02/2026
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Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0358 AM CST Mon Mar 02 2026
Valid 051200Z - 101200Z
...DISCUSSION...
...Thursday/Day 4 and Friday/Day 5...
At mid-levels, a shortwave trough is forecast to move through the
mid Mississippi Valley on Thursday as flow remains southwesterly
across the south-central U.S. An upper-level system will be located
in the Desert Southwest. At the surface, moisture advection is
forecast across the southern Plains, where surface dewpoints will be
mostly in the 50s and 60s F by afternoon. As surface temperatures
warm during the day, an axis of moderate instability is forecast to
develop to the east of a dryline from west-central Texas
north-northeastward into the eastern Texas Panhandle and western
Oklahoma. Along this axis of instability, moderate deep-layer is
forecast, along with steep mid-level lapse rates. This will likely
support a severe threat during the afternoon and evening. Supercells
with large hail, damaging wind gusts and a tornado threat will be
possible.
On Friday, mid-level southwesterly flow will strengthen across parts
of the southern and central Plains, as a mid-level jet ejects
northeastward into the central U.S. At the surface, a moist airmass
with moderate instability is forecast to be in place by afternoon
from north-central Texas north-northeastward into the lower Missouri
Valley. Model forecasts are in agreement that scattered
thunderstorms will develop across this unstable airmass during the
afternoon and evening. Moderate deep-layer shear and steep mid-level
lapse rates should be favorable for supercells with large hail. Wind
damage and tornadoes will also be possible with supercells and
bowing line segments. Some solutions suggest that the threat will
persist into the overnight period as a low-level jet ramps up across
the region.
...Saturday/Day 6 to Monday/Day 8...
Mid-level southwesterly flow is expected to continue over the
south-central U.S. on Saturday, as a cold front moves southward
across the southern Plains and Ozarks. To the south of the front,
the models forecast pockets of moderate instability, and suggest
that scattered to numerous thunderstorms will develop. In addition,
moderate to strong deep-layer shear is forecast across the northern
edge of the moist sector. Model consensus suggests that a severe
threat will develop Saturday afternoon and evening, mainly from
west-central Texas northeastward into the western Ozarks.
The cold front is forecast to continue moving southward into the
western Gulf Coast states on Sunday. Scattered thunderstorms are
forecast to develop near and to the south of the front Sunday
afternoon, where an isolated severe threat will be possible.
Confidence is low concerning the spatial distribution of any
potential threat. On Monday, a shortwave ridge is forecast to move
over the top of a moist airmass in the southern Plains. This
scenario could support an isolated severe threat in the afternoon.
However, uncertainty is high at this range in the forecast period.
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