RSS Mesoscale Discussions from Storm Prediction Center
No watches are valid as of Mon Apr 6 22:44:02 UTC 2026.
No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Mon Apr 6 22:44:02 UTC 2026.
SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0220 PM CDT Mon Apr 06 2026
Valid 062000Z - 071200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected today across the
Florida Peninsula and portions of the Southwest, Pacific Northwest,
and eastern Great Lakes. While a few strong storms may occur across
the central/southern Florida Peninsula, organized severe potential
should remain low.
...20z Update...
No changes are need to the current D1 Convective Outlook. See
previous discussion below for more information.
..Thornton.. 04/06/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1116 AM CDT Mon Apr 06 2026/
...Synopsis and Discussion...
Mean longwave troughing will remain over the eastern COUNS today,
while a weak mid-level shortwave trough advances eastward across the
Gulf towards the FL Peninsula by late tonight. At the surface, high
pressure centered over the southern Plains to TN/OH Valleys will
maintain offshore low-level trajectories and limited low-level
moisture over a large majority of the CONUS. Still, isolated
lightning flashes may occur today across parts of the eastern Great
Lakes, Southwest, and Pacific Northwest in association with weak
mid-level perturbations amid the presence of sufficient MUCAPE and
modest lift.
Greater low-level moisture (mid 60s to low 70s surface dewpoints)
will remain confined along/south of a cold front draped across the
central FL Peninsula. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are
expected to develop this afternoon across central/south FL as
daytime heating erodes lingering MLCIN, especially across interior
areas. With the low-amplitude shortwave trough remaining well to the
west over the Gulf through the day, weak low/mid-level winds and
meager deep-layer shear over land will likely limit updraft
organization and severe potential. Still, occasional strong/gusty
downburst winds may occur with the more robust cores as low-level
lapse rates become steepened with continued diurnal heating.
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SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0208 PM CDT Mon Apr 06 2026
Valid 081200Z - 091200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF KANSAS INTO FAR SOUTHERN NEBRASKA...
...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms with isolated large hail will be possible in parts of
the central Plains Wednesday evening.
...Central Plains...
A compact upper trough/low will move from the northern Plains to the
Great Lakes on Wednesday. At the surface, low pressure will shift
from southern Manitoba to near James Bay in Ontario. A trailing cold
front will develop southeast across the Upper Midwest and central
Plains. Boundary-layer moisture will remain limited due to
persistent surface high pressure across the East, cutting off
stronger Gulf moisture return. Nevertheless, cold temperatures aloft
(around -15 C at 500 mb) will support steep midlevel lapse rates and
weak instability in a corridor along/just ahead of the cold front
across the central Plains.
Isolated thunderstorms are forecast near the front during the
evening. Vertical shear will be somewhat weak through 6 km, but
effective shear magnitudes around 25-30 kt is evident in forecast
soundings. Furthermore, strong west/northwesterly flow through the
top half of the cloud-bearing layer will result in
lengthened/straight hodographs. A deep, well-mixed boundary layer is
also forecast. This environment marginally supports a few strong to
severe storms capable of producing locally strong gusts, and perhaps
marginally severe hail if updrafts can be sustained.
..Leitman.. 04/06/2026
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SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0341 PM CDT Mon Apr 06 2026
Valid 081200Z - 141200Z
An upper-level trough will be progressing eastward along the
Canadian border with the base of the jet over the northern Plains on
Day 3/Wednesday. A cutoff upper-level low approaches the California
coast simultaneously on Day 3/Wednesday. However, it's not until Day
5/Friday into Day 6/Saturday that the center of the low finally
moves onshore as a result of another trough moving across the
northern Pacific. By Day 7/Sunday, this upper-level low also cuts
off, sending the first cutoff low northeastward across the Great
Plains and Midwest by Day 8/Monday. This scenario is likely to
result in multiple days of precipitation across much of the western
and central US, which would temporarily dampen fire weather threats.
Sporadic areas of little to no precipitation will be possible, but
difficult to pin point due to the highly dynamic pattern.
...Southeast (Day 3/Wednesday)...
With surface high pressure still to the north over the eastern Great
Lakes, continued offshore flow will likely contribute to at least
elevated fire weather conditions across eastern Georgia and southern
South Carolina. This regime will result in northeast 10-15 mph winds
combined with RHs down to 25-35% during the peak heating period.
...Southern Plains (Day 3/Wednesday and Day 7/Sunday)...
Another day of tightened surface pressure gradient supports
south-southwest winds up to 15 mph and RHs down to 10-15% over
portions of the southern High Plains on Day 3/Wednesday. Much of
this region is favored for accumulating precipitation as the
aforementioned low pressure system ejects eastward across the
central portions of the CONUS next weekend. However, the latest
forecast guidance indicates that some locations may struggle to
accumulate much rainfall. If this trend holds true, future areas of
critical probabilities may be needed as the forecast becomes more
clear.
...Great Basin/Southwest (Day 3/Wednesday through Day 5/Friday)...
The best chances for sporadic fire weather conditions under the
southerly flow will occur on Day 3/Wednesday through Day 5/Friday
across areas of the eastern Great Basin and Southwest. However,
recent cooler weather, precipitation, and resultant questionably
receptive fuels will preclude any probabilities at this time. While
this event could promote a brief period of drier fuel conditions
across this region, additional precipitation also appears likely
with the aforementioned low pressure system later in the week.
..Stearns.. 04/06/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
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