475
FXUS61 KBTV 060000
AFDBTV
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
700 PM EST Wed Nov 5 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
Wind gusts of 35 to 50 mph will be possible this evening and
overnight tonight as a strong clipper system impacts our region with
more valley rain and mountain snow showers. Winds will be highest in
the downslope regions of the eastern Adirondacks and eastern Green
mountains. Unsettled weather is expected to continue into the
weekend. Temperatures will likely be near seasonable levels for most
of this week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 112 PM EST Wednesday...
* A Wind Advisory remains in effect for Essex County, New York,
as well as portions of central and southern Vermont for winds
10 to 20 MPH and gusts 40 to 50 MPH from 4 PM Today until 1
PM Thursday.
While surface level ridging builds in from the southeastern U.S.,
warm air advection, frontogenesis along a warm frontal boundary, and
a tongue of moisture off low pressure over the Great Lakes are
producing rain, high elevation snow, and mid level clouds across
northern New York and Vermont this afternoon. Winds will continue to
increase this evening out of the west and northwest with a low level
jet up to 50-55 knots at the 850mb level as the atmosphere remains
mixed for much of tonight. Wind gusts at the surface are anticipated
to get as high as 30-50 mph on eastern slopes of the mountains,
potentially 45 to 55 mph at the summits.
Highest winds are anticipated after midnight tonight and continue
until around or after sunrise tomorrow morning. Probabilities of at
least 40 mph on the HREF has decreased to about 40-60%, but still
thinking eastern slopes, especially in southern Vermont, could have
increased wind gusts from atmospheric mixing based on model
soundings. While overall modeled winds have decreased slightly in
the past 12 hours, we have refined the forecast so that more
targeted areas have the most intense gusts in the forecast. The Wind
Advisory remains largely unchanged. Damaging winds could blow down
trees and power lines, and scattered power outages are possible.
Rain and mountain snow are expected to continue tonight, associated
with the passage of a cold frontal boundary and surface low pressure
nearly directly overhead. Forecast precipitation will be anywhere
from 0.05-0.90" with highest amounts on western slopes of mountains
and lowest in the southern valleys east of mountains. Snow levels
are forecast to plummet 600-1200 feet as cold air rushes in behind
the cold front, potentially even lower, but drier air will also
arrive to taper off precipitation at the lower levels, but not
before a few flakes fly in some of the northern valleys.
Snow accumulations are expected to remain in the mountains and
Northeast Kingdom, however, with a slushy 3 to 7 inches possible at
highest elevations. Impacts continue to look minimal with such
localized accumulations, though the combination of the gusty winds
and snow could create low visibilities for anyone driving in the
mountains overnight and during the morning commute tomorrow.
Temperatures overnight tonight will be seasonable in the mid 20s to
mid 30s, likely feeling colder in the rain, snow, and wind.
High pressure is anticipated to build in from the Ohio Valley and
mid-Atlantic tomorrow, leaving us some lingering upslope showers in
the mountains that should dwindle by the afternoon. This could bring
perhaps an additional inch to highest elevations, but again not much
forecast to accumulate in the valleys. Highs will top out in the mid
30s to mid 40s, a touch cooler than what is seasonable for early
November, but we could even see the sun in the wider valleys in the
afternoon. Northwesterly winds will be on the decrease throughout
the day as well, keeping clusters of clouds in the mountains.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
As of 112 PM EST Wednesday...Thursday night, we should be dry as high
pressure in the mid- Atlantic drifts eastward with partly to mostly
clear skies early, resulting in a quick fall of temperatures into
the upper teens to lower 30s, a good 5-10 degrees below seasonal
averages before clouds increase again. Winds will be very light and
turning out of the south Thursday night, then increasing out of the
south and southeast on Friday with the approach of another frontal
system whose low will be moving to the east/northeast from the Great
Lakes and Ontario to Quebec.
This will keep us in the "warm" sector of the system with highs
encouraged by the southerly flow into the mid 40s to lower 50s on
Friday, which is about seasonable for this time of year, then
falling only as low as the mid 30s to mid 40s Friday night,
relatively mild. Precipitation chances are expected to increase
throughout the day Friday, peaking during the evening/early
overnight, then decreasing toward dawn Saturday morning with upslope
areas favored again in south-southwesterly flow. Snow levels will
climb into the 2600-6000 foot range due to the mild air involved,
severely limiting any snowfall potential. Most of this system will
be rain, with some wet snowflakes possibly mixing in at highest
elevations. Overall expecting about 0.10-0.25" of precipitation
Friday and Friday night.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 148 PM EST Wednesday...An active weather pattern is
strongly favored with long wave troughing relatively centered
along a north-south axis over the James Bay early next week.
This position, and projections of a rapid succession of troughs
moving through the long waves base, support daily precipitation
chances late Saturday onward. The biggest question will be
oscillation of precipitation characteristics as some of the
waves will likely coincide with strong thermal gradients and
blasts of cooler conditions. Sunday night into Monday is favored
for one of those stronger blasts and could see snow levels
dropping to valley floors overnight. Given a prefrontal warming,
there could also be a brief period of mixed precipitation
followed by aforementioned snow chances and gusty winds. Cooler
conditions appear to be here to stay for next week with flow
aloft going more zonal with potential for the storm track to
linger across the Great Lakes and Northeast. Snow chances may
linger through Tuesday before subsequent waves can lift the
540dm height line northward enough to allow for daytime rain and
more elevation dependent snow.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Through 00Z Thursday...A mix of flight categories exist right
now but there will be a quick trend toward IFR for most
terminals. Ceilings will drop quickly this evening and all
terminals except PBG should be IFR by late evening. Ceilings
will stay low for most of the night before they gradually rise
late in the night and tomorrow morning. By tomorrow afternoon,
they should be VFR in most places. Widespread rain is currently
out there. It will continue through the evening but temperatures
will be dropping, so snow levels will gradually be lowering.
Snow should begin at SLK by around 02Z, before reaching EFK and
MPV around the 4Z timeframe. A few snow showers are possible at
MSS this evening but it should be mostly rain. A few snow
showers may reach RUT around midnight. A few flakes cannot be
completely ruled out at BTV late in the night, but anything
would be very short lived. This snow will cause IFR
visibilities. The precipitation should mostly exit the region by
late in the night, except at SLK and EFK where a few snow
showers could linger into the day tomorrow. Winds will quickly
change to northwesterly within the next couple hours, and they
will quickly strengthen. Gusts between 15-25 KTs are expected
for most areas tonight into tomorrow morning, with gusts up to
35 KTs possible at times. LLWS is currently present at a few
sites but it will diminish quickly as winds turn northwesterly.
Outlook...
Thursday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Friday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance RA.
Friday Night: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. Definite RA.
Saturday: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. Chance SHRA.
Saturday Night: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. Slight
chance SHRA, Slight chance SHSN.
Sunday: Mainly IFR, with areas MVFR possible. Likely SHRA.
Sunday Night: Mainly IFR, with areas MVFR possible. Likely SHRA,
Chance SHSN.
Monday: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. Chance SHRA, Chance
SHSN.
&&
.MARINE...
South to southeast winds 5 to 15 knots this evening on Lake
Champlain will become northwest tonight and increase to 15 to
30 knots with gusts as high as 35 to 45 knots into tomorrow
associated with downsloping winds and a low level jet. Winds
will be highest in the broad waters of the lake. Waves build
from 1 to 2 feet this afternoon to 4 to 5 feet possible tonight
and tomorrow. Winds are expected to weaken tomorrow afternoon
and tomorrow night.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...Wind Advisory until 1 PM EST Thursday for VTZ005-008>011-
017>021.
NY...Wind Advisory until 1 PM EST Thursday for NYZ034-035.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Storm
NEAR TERM...Storm
SHORT TERM...Storm
LONG TERM...Boyd
AVIATION...Myskowski
MARINE...Storm
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