498
FXUS61 KBTV 170300
AFDBTV
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
1100 PM EDT Thu Oct 16 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
Brisk northerly flow will gradually diminish through Friday as
a narrow ridge of high pressure noses in from the west; areas of
frost are expected where winds slacken. Winds will turn
southerly on Saturday and become gusty on Sunday ahead a
stronger variety low pressure system that will bring widespread
rain by Monday. A stormier weather pattern generally is expected
next week with periodic showers.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 1058 PM EDT Thursday...Winds have slowed enough to drop
the lake wind advisory on Lake Champlain. Otherwise, a few spots
in the St Lawrence Valley are cooling faster than anticipated,
so thermal curves were altered to better match observation
trends.
Previous Discussion...Quiet and cool weather will be the story
through the period with chances for frost given mainly clear
skies and diminishing winds. With the Freeze/Frost program
winding down due to climatology, a Frost Advisory continues for
tonight only in the Champlain Valley, with another one likely
needed for tomorrow night. Localized sub-freezing temperatures
are possible within sheltered locations, but especially tonight
the northerly winds prevalent will help slow cooling a bit. Have
noted low chances for frost in the immediate Lake Champlain
area, such as over Grand Isle County, but have let the Advisory
ride with this forecast.
Otherwise, modest north winds will continue on Friday, generally
higher in Vermont than in New York with high pressure building
in from the west. A lot of mid and high level cloud cover out
ahead of a large low pressure system and its associated warm
front will stunt the cooling after midnight especially Friday
night in what otherwise could have been a colder night
considering the light winds and dry air in place. Generally
temperatures will remain only a little below normal, dropping
into the mid 20s to mid 30s following highs in the 50s.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT/...
As of 258 PM EDT Thursday...Saturday is clearly the pick of the
week with regards to comfortable weather and light winds as
temperatures should be several degrees warmer than Friday per
much higher 850 millibar temperatures with ridging sliding
across Vermont and northern New York during the day. High
altitude clouds will stunt warming slightly, but very dry low
level air is noted in forecast soundings. Would not be surprised
if relative humidity drops even lower than currently indicated,
but light winds will reduce fire weather concerns compared to
Sunday (see fire weather section of AFD below for more). Have
maintained some slight chances of showers in the immediate St.
Lawrence Valley, expanding eastward into much of New York, late
in this period as brief light showers, but more likely virga,
will be possible as clouds thicken. Thicker clouds and milder
air will keep temperatures much higher Saturday night than
recent nights, above freezing areawide.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 152 PM EDT Thursday...A strong southerly low level jet
moves over the region during the day Sunday, bringing gusty
winds. Most areas should see gusts in the 20 to 30 mph range,
but gusts up to 40 mph are possible in the Champlain Valley due
to channeling and in the northern Adirondacks due to
downsloping. A strong cold front moves through Sunday night into
Monday and it will bring a line of showers. While some embedded
convection is possible, thunder looks very unlikely due to a
lack of meaningful instability. The rain will likely linger into
Monday as a low develops along the front and moves through the
region. Precipitation amounts have been trending up. 48 hour
probabilities from the NBM of seeing more than an inch of rain
are generally between 25 to 50 percent. A partial break in the
precipitation looks to occur on Tuesday before an upper level
low digs into the region for Wednesday. With ensemble averaged
850 mb temperatures forecast to drop to around freezing, there
could be a few snow showers in the highest peaks.
&&
.AVIATION /03Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Through 00Z Saturday...Persistent VFR conditions will continue
with some mid level CIGs wrapping westward off of departing low
pressure east of Vermont. These clouds could wrap back across
BTV/PBG by 6Z, but should be short lived as the parent low
continues tracking eastward. Otherwise, winds will remain 35+kts
at ridge level keeping low level turbulence likely at least
through 12Z before the gradient weakens. SFC winds are
diminishing however. Breezes will increase out of the northwest
again after 12Z, with general speeds to around 10kts or less.
Outlook...
Friday Night: VFR. Patchy frost.
Saturday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Saturday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
Sunday: VFR. Windy with gusts to 30 kt. Chance SHRA.
Sunday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA.
Monday: Mainly MVFR, with local VFR possible. Likely SHRA.
Monday Night: Mainly MVFR, with local VFR possible. Chance SHRA.
Tuesday: VFR. Chance SHRA.
&&
.EQUIPMENT...
KTYX is out of service. Technicians have identified a hardware
failure and have ordered replacement parts.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...Frost Advisory until 9 AM EDT Friday for VTZ001-002-005-009.
NY...Frost Advisory until 9 AM EDT Friday for NYZ028-035.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Kutikoff
NEAR TERM...Kutikoff
SHORT TERM...Kutikoff
LONG TERM...Myskowski
AVIATION...Boyd
EQUIPMENT...BTV
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