190
FXUS61 KBTV 220638
AFDBTV
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
238 AM EDT Sun Mar 22 2026
.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
As of 237 AM EDT Sunday...
Freezing drizzle is looking increasingly likely late tonight into
Monday morning. Total ice accumulations between a glaze and 0.05
inches is now expected; mainly across Vermont.
&&
.KEY MESSAGES...
As of 237 AM EDT Sunday...
1. A clipper will move across the North Country and northern
New York tonight into Monday morning bringing widespread snowfall
and a change to a rain/snow mix across southern Vermont and the St.
Lawrence and Champlain Valleys tomorrow afternoon.
2. Seasonally cool and drier to start next week.
3. Multiple weather disturbances expected for Vermont and
Northern New York for the back end of the week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
As of 237 AM EDT Sunday...
KEY MESSAGE 1: A Winter Weather Advisory remains in effect from
8 PM this evening through 8 AM Monday morning for the Adirondack
region in New York and the spine of the Green Mountains eastward
in Vermont for 3 to 6 inches of snow and a light glaze of ice. Zonal
flow will begin to break down this evening as a weak surface
low moves across the Great Lakes Region this afternoon. The
surface low is currently meandering across the upper Midwest
with mid to high level clouds advecting into the region from the
northwest. Precipitation will begin as widespread snow from west
to east beginning in northern New York by 8 PM and arriving in
Vermont by Midnight tonight. Models have mainly stabilized on
the low center track across southern Vermont and along the
southern Adirondacks. This favors more snow across the North
Country and areas north of US-4 initially. HREF mean snow rates
show 0.5-0.75 inch/hr rates which is supported by a shallow DGZ
thicknesses between 3-5kft at 12,000ft on HRRR model soundings.
As the system progress eastward tonight, 850mb frontogenesis
will increase between 1 AM and 10 AM when the highest snowfall
amounts are expected. Snowfall amounts will vary from 1-3"
across the St. Lawrence and Champlain Valley, with possibly 6 to
10 inches across the upslope favored summits in the western
slopes of the Green Mountains. The snow will be of a wet
character with snow ratios favoring ratios from 7-10:1, with
lower ratios across southern Vermont.
Beyond 10 AM, a dry slot may entrain some dry air into the
Champlain Valley and portions of southern Vermont which will
lead to a drying of the mid to upper levels, and thus a loss of
cloud ice in the DGZ. This dry slot will also be accompanied by
temperatures in the 32-36 degree range which will could lead to
some mixed precipitation in the form of snow and rain in a
narrow band from Newcomb, NY to Middlebury and White River
Junction in Vermont. Furthermore, as we lose cloud ice tomorrow
afternoon, and moisture lingers at the surface, precipitation
may trend towards drizzle and freezing drizzle in the Champlain
Valley and southern Vermont. Within this mixed precipitation and
potential freezing drizzle, up to a light glaze of ice is
possible. Portions of southern Rutland and Windsor counties may
remain completely rain through the event. Any freezing
precipitation will be short lived, as the DGZ will sink closer
to the surface back into the shallow moisture by tomorrow
evening. As with last night, some patchy freezing fog may
develop in the low lying areas Sunday night, but confidence is
low so it was not included in the current forecast. Main impacts
from this event will include hazardous travel beginning tonight
through the Monday morning commute from slick roads.
KEY MESSAGE 2: Following the clipper system, a 1030mb area of high
pressure will build into the region for Monday night into Tuesday.
Low to mid level moisture will dry out as subsidence from the high
and drier southerly air will entrain into the area. Skies should
become mainly sunny to mostly sunny, especially over the St.
Lawrence on Tuesday. Clouds may linger across eastern Vermont with a
weak trough hanging on in the wake of our clipper system Sunday.
Temperatures under the high will generally be seasonable to 5
degrees below normal, particularly in northern New York and
eastern Vermont, as we will still be under the influence of a
dominating upper level trough, which is fairly normal for late
March.
KEY MESSAGE 3: A cold front pushes through Wednesday morning, bringing
some snow showers, with the best chances along the western slopes
where orographic lift can help the lack of forcing and moisture.
There`s still some question on how far south the cold air moves into
the region, with highs in the low 30s across the northern half of
the CWA and in the upper 30s to 40s across the southern counties.
Models are still split on the next system that could move through
early on Thursday, with low tracks to the north and south of the
region, bringing some chances for early snow showers.
Models do have better agreement for the system directly behind, that
moves in late Thursday night and into Friday morning that brings a
general rain-snow mix to the area that will bare watching. Behind
this system we could see a brief unseasonable cool down Friday night
with overnight lows in the teens to single digits before becoming
more seasonal next weekend.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Through 06Z Monday...Snow is moving through the St Lawrence
Valley and into the Dacks. Expect IFR vis in light snow to
develop at SLK/MSS around 06Z and after 08z for other stations.
Cigs lower from VFR to MVFR conditions as snow develops with
IFR visibilities prevailing at most sites thru 12z. As warmer
surface temps develop, expect some mix with rain with MVFR vis
developing in our valley taf sites by 14z Sunday. Precip should
exit our taf sites by 18z, with lingering areas of
drizzle/freezing drizzle developing, along with lowering ceiling
back toward IFR and possibly LIFR at a few locations,
especially Champlain Valley with developing northwest winds
after 21z. This wind direction combined with strongly blocked
flow, will result in a long duration of IFR cigs at RUT/BTV thru
Sunday night, with additional IFR cigs likely at SLK/MPV and
EFK. Some localized low level wind shear is likely through the
early morning hours.
Outlook...
Monday: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. Chance SN, Chance
FZDZ.
Monday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday Night: VFR. Slight chance SN.
Wednesday: VFR. Chance SN, Chance RA.
Wednesday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SN,
Chance RA.
Thursday: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. Chance RA, Chance
SN.
&&
.EQUIPMENT...
The Colchester Reef meteorological station is out of service.
This site is not serviced by the NWS and there isn`t an
estimated return to service at present. Please contact us if you
observe winds significantly deviating from the recreational
forecast.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...Winter Weather Advisory until 8 AM EDT Monday for VTZ003-004-
006>008-010-017>021.
NY...Winter Weather Advisory until 8 AM EDT Monday for NYZ027-030-
031-034.
&&
$$
WHAT HAS CHANGED...Clay
DISCUSSION...Clay/Verasamy
AVIATION...Verasamy
EQUIPMENT...NWS BTV
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