058
FXUS61 KBTV 302318
AFDBTV
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
718 PM EDT Tue Sep 30 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will remain in control through the weekend, continuing
the dry stretch. The cooler conditions will continue through mid
week, before an abrupt warming trend starts going into the weekend.
Areas of frost are increasingly likely Wednesday Night and Thursday
night, with the coldest conditions occurring Wednesday night.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 207 PM EDT Tuesday...High pressure is building down into the
region out of Quebec, continuing the cold air advection.
Temperatures will drop quickly tonight and most areas should see
them fall into the thirties. The coldest hollows of the Adirondacks
and Northeast Kingdom may see them fall into the upper twenties.
While temperatures will be favorable for frost formation in many
areas, continuing boundary layer flow should prevent it form
occurring at a widespread level. A classic fall day will develop
tomorrow with temperatures climbing into the mid fifties to lower
sixties under clear skies. Remaining boundary layer flow should
lighten tomorrow night, and the radiational cooling conditions will
become much more favorable. Therefore, widespread frost is looking
increasing likely with some freezes in the coldest parts of the
Adirondacks and Vermont. The frost freeze program will end tomorrow
in the Adirondacks and Northeast Kingdom, so no more frost/freeze
headlines will be issued in those locations after tonight. Wind
gusts will again be in the 10 to 20 mph range during the day, with
isolated parts in the Champlain Valley seeing higher gusts. Relative
humidities will drop into the mid thirties to the mid forties, with
lower values in the broad valleys. Therefore, fire weather is a
concern again tomorrow, even though values will not reach critical
thresholds.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
As of 207 PM EDT Tuesday...The center of the surface high will begin
to slide off to the east Thursday and Thursday night, initiating a
warming trend. While southerly flow will begin to develop Thursday
night, many protected hollows should remain decoupled, particularly
across eastern Vermont. Therefore patchy frost formation is again
expected in many areas, though not as widespread as Wednesday night.
Winds will be much lighter on Thursday so while relative humidities
will again drop into the 30s for most areas, fire weather concerns
will be lower.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 151 PM EDT Tuesday...From Friday onward drier and warmer
weather is expected for the most part. Surface and upper level
ridging will dominate our weather pattern from Friday through
early Monday, but then ridge will begin to break down. On
Tuesday a weak front will drop southward across our area, but at
this time looks like we`ll mainly just see some clouds with
this surface feature. Tuesday night into Wednesday we`ll have a
stronger frontal system cross our area, perhaps bringing our
only chance of precipitation through the next week. Very warm
temperatures are expected from Saturday through Monday with some
80 degree readings possible early next week.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Through 00Z Thursday...VFR conditions will generally prevail
through the period under mainly clear skies. Some low clouds may
develop over the higher terrain overnight and drift over KSLK
and KEFK during the pre-dawn hours, and could briefly become
MVFR, but confidence is low given strong dry advection with high
pressure building overhead. In addition, due to drying and
expected winds in the boundary layer, fog is not favored tonight
at any terminal as well. Winds should be generally out of the
north at 4-8kts through the period, except locally southeast
overnight at KRUT.
Outlook...
Wednesday Night: VFR. Patchy BR, Patchy frost.
Thursday: VFR. Patchy BR.
Thursday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Friday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Friday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Saturday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Saturday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Sunday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...Frost Advisory from 1 AM to 7 AM EDT Wednesday for VTZ004.
NY...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Myskowski
NEAR TERM...Myskowski
SHORT TERM...Myskowski
LONG TERM...Neiles
AVIATION...Lahiff
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