102
FXUS61 KBTV 170646
AFDBTV
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
146 AM EST Tue Feb 17 2026
.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
As of 145 AM EST Tuesday...
No significant changes have been made to the forecast.
&&
.KEY MESSAGES...
As of 145 AM EST Tuesday...
1. Light snow showers, along with the chance for some light
drizzle or freezing drizzle, will be possible through this morning
into the afternoon.
2. Some snow will likely impact southern portions of the region
on Wednesday and Wednesday night. Northward extent of this
precipitation remains highly uncertain.
3. Snow is possible on midday Friday into Saturday, but the
timing is uncertain. Snow showers will linger into next week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
As of 145 AM EST Tuesday...
KEY MESSAGE 1: A weak shortwave continues to move across the region
this morning, bringing some light precipitation chances along with
it with limited moisture to work with. As the morning progresses,
mid-level drying is expected, resulting in a loss of cloud ice and
the potential for patchy drizzle/freezing drizzle. This particular
set up is a bit tricky in regards to the freezing drizzle, as there
is uncertainty in regards to how quickly the drier air moves in as
well as how quickly temperatures warm this afternoon. Overall,
little to no ice accumulation is expected for the region, although
some slick spots may be possible so be sure to use caution this
morning. By this afternoon, temperatures are expected to warm
above freezing, generally the mid to upper 30s.
KEY MESSAGE 2: Our next chances for precipitation arrive Wednesday as a
frontal boundary drapes across the region. As of now, it looks like
our forecast region will likely remain on the cold side, with
precipitation type primarily falling as snow across the region.
There continues to remain a large amount on uncertainty as to the
northward extent of the snowfall associated with this system
Wednesday night and where the axis of heaviest precipitation sets up.
The current forecast keeps the more impactful snowfall south of our
region, although there are a few models showing a more northerly
extent, so these trends will still need to be monitored as we get
closer. The timing of the precipitation looks to align with the
Wednesday evening commute, so hazardous travel may be possible,
especially across southern Vermont where impacts are more likely.
Following the snowy weather Wednesday, a rather quiet day is
expected for Thursday as high pressure builds into the region,
bringing seasonable temperatures.
KEY MESSAGE 3: NBM indicates chances of precipitation on Friday
morning. However, most guidance is dry. Given we`re several days
away, left the forecast untouched. The later range of forecast
scenarios indicate precipitation is more likely to advance during
the middle of Friday afternoon or maybe even the overnight hours.
Probability of 4" of snow is about 20-40%. The overall pattern
features blocked low pressure still going around the Great Lakes
region with a new surface low developing from the south, and
eventually taking over. As it matures over the Great Lakes, a triple
point low may try to develop over Lake Ontario, but vorticity
advection alongside model projected pressure falls suggest a coastal
low will dominate and carry better moisture and forcing away. This
is likely why model prognoses are not very high. Upper divergence
will be favorable over the region, though, and warm advection will
be sufficient for some overrunning precipitation. We`ll have to
monitor how much warming takes place given we`ll be flirting close
to the freezing point at 850mb. Several pinwheeling upper vorts
rotating through a deep upper trough should keep chances for snow
showers present into next week under moist, northwest flow.
Seasonable temperatures will be present at the surface, but it will
be cool aloft (~33rd percentile from LREF) with thicknesses near or
below 530 dam. So even if we manage to warm into the mid 30s,
precipitation will likely remain snow.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Through 06Z Wednesday...Snow will be possible through about 15z
Tuesday with potential mixing at KMSS and KPBG, followed by
patchy drizzle (freezing drizzle if below 32 F) or mist.
Terminals are mostly VFR right now, and given dry air, noted
PROB30s with a slow stair-step down to MVFR and then IFR over
the next 6-9 hours while gradually showing the potential for
transitioning precipitation types. Very light snowfall rates
will be present overnight, and with dry air in place, it may do
little to reduce visibility. Ceilings are expected to gradually
lower throughout the period. The combination of low-level
moisture and a slow moving boundary with above freezing
temperatures over a relatively deep snow pack could allow for
fog over snow. It`s hard to pinpoint how low visibilities will
drop this early, but 2-5SM seems likely, with ceilings ranging
from 500-1500 ft agl the remainder of the day, and then slowly
improve beyond 00z Wednesday. Winds will mainly be south to
southwest at 4-9 knots, and trend towards 5 knots and become
westerly after 00z Wednesday.
Outlook...
Wednesday: VFR. Chance SN.
Wednesday Night: VFR. Chance SN, Slight chance FZRA.
Thursday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Thursday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Friday: VFR. Chance SN.
Friday Night: VFR. Likely SN.
Saturday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance SN.
&&
.EQUIPMENT...
The KMPV ASOS has suffered a communications failure. The issue
has been diagnosed, but there is currently no estimated time of
return to service. Terminal Aerodrome Forecasts will continue,
but amendments to those forecasts will be suspended.
NOAA Weather Radio station WXM-44, transmitting from Mt.
Ascutney, Vermont, on frequency 162.475 MHz is non- operational
at this time. NWS technicians have diagnosed the problem, but
repairs will likely not be able to occur for quite some time due
to circumstances beyond our control. Therefore, the time of
return to service is currently unknown. The following NOAA
Weather Radio transmitters may be able to provide service during
this outage: WWG 50 from Burke Mtn, VT at 162.425 MHz and WNG
546 from Hanover, NH at 162.525 MHz.
The Colchester Reef meteorological station is out of service.
This site is not serviced by the NWS and there isn`t an
estimated return to service at present. Please contact us if you
observe winds significantly deviating from the recreational
forecast.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.
&&
$$
WHAT HAS CHANGED...Kremer
DISCUSSION...Kremer/Haynes
AVIATION...Haynes
EQUIPMENT...NWS BTV
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