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  Thursday July 19, 2018

 

NWS Area Forecast Discussion


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000
FXUS61 KBTV 190735
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
335 AM EDT Thu Jul 19 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure continues across the North Country today with
clear skies and light winds. After a cool start with some patchy
fog temperatures will warm quickly into the mid 70s to lower 80s
by this afternoon. Another cool night is anticipated tonight,
followed by temperatures warming back into the 80s to near 90
for Friday and Saturday. A large scale pattern change occurs on
Sunday into next week, with increase chances for several rounds
of showers and embedded thunderstorms.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 322 AM EDT Thursday...1020mb high pres near Rochester New
York will continue to keep fa dry with plenty of sunshine today.
Progged 925mb to 850mb temps warm 1 to 3 degrees which support
highs in the mid 70s to lower 80s most locations. With sfc high
pres directly overhead, expect mainly light and variable trrn
driven winds today btwn 3-7 mph. Tonight...high pres continues
with slightly warmer thermal profiles. Still anticipating a
sharp low level thermal inversion to develop with coolest
readings in the deeper/protected valleys. Lows generally in the
l40s slk/nek to m/u 50s slv/cpv. Given another day removed from
precip, areal coverage of fog and duration will be limited, with
highest probably across central/eastern VT valleys btwn 09-11z.
On Friday...sfc to 850mb southerly flow develops along with
modest low level waa ahead of developing trof across the central
CONUS. This advection will help warm 850mb temps btwn 17-18c,
while progged 925mb temps range btwn 23-24c. These low level
thermal profiles, combined with dry airmass and excellent mixing
support highs well into the 80s to lower 90s in some of the
warmer valley locations on Friday. Have trended toward the
warmer ECE for anticipated high temps on Friday. Interesting the
ECE guidance shows a 30 to 40 degree spread btwn low temps
Friday morning and expected high temps on Friday aftn,
indicating just how dry the atmosphere is across our cwa.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 322 AM EDT Thursday...A pattern change will be
underway at the end of the week as an upper low rotates down into
the Great Lakes/Upper Midwest states. Surface high pressure will
slide away to the east with low pressure spinning over the southern
Great Lakes. Meanwhile, a secondary low is progged to develop along
the Mid Atlantic coast and shift northward on Saturday. The North
Country will remain positioned between these features, resulting in
south to southwest flow across the region. Therefore, while dry
weather will persist through the period, clouds will increase,
especially on Saturday as winds turn to the southeast, advecting in
moist maritime air. This airmass will also keep temperatures a
little cooler than the previous day; after lows in the mid 50s to
lower 60s Friday night, Saturday`s highs will be in the upper 70s to
around 80 for much of our region; the exception will be the
Champlain and St Lawrence Valleys where temperatures will reach into
the mid to upper 80s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 322 AM EDT Thursday...or those eagerly awaiting some
much-needed rainfall, your wait is nearly over. Upper
troughiness will dominate the eastern CONUS through much of next
week, and with the trough axis to remain to our west, we will
be under deep southwest flow a good portion of long term. Shower
chances will increase Saturday night into Sunday as warm air
advection occurs around the front of an upper low spinning into
the Upper Midwest. Have gone with likely PoPs for Sunday as
there will be showers around, but don`t anticipate the second
half of the weekend to be a complete washout as moisture will
wane through the day. The bulk of the rainfall looks to occur
Monday through Wednesday with a deep plume of moisture streaming
around the back of the Bermuda high. PWATs will approach 2+
inches and warm cloud depths will exceed 12,000 ft during this
timeframe, pointing to very efficient rainfall processes. It is
difficult at this early date to pinpoint exactly where the axis
of highest rainfall will occur, but confidence in widespread
rainfall amounts of 1+ inches across the North Country is
increasing. This will occur over a number of days and given the
recent dry weather there is no immediate flooding concern, but
trends will need to be monitored as this event approaches.
Daytime temperatures will be near to slightly above normal, but
with the influx of moisture, it`ll be quite muggy next week as
dewpoints surge into the 60s and 70s. Hence lows are anticipated
to be some 5- 10 degrees warmer than normal through Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Through 06Z Friday...Aviation challenge this morning is fog/br
potential at slk/mpv and mss. Sfc analysis shows 1020mb high
pres axis from the central Great Lakes into northern NY with
light winds and clear skies. This has allowed temps to fall
quickly with slk approaching their cross over temp of 39f.
Thinking some patchy fog with ifr conditions likely btwn 08-11z
at slk, but conditions will probably bounce up and down, given
the lack of significant boundary layer moisture. At mpv thinking
just a very small window near sunrise for ifr in br, as
temp/dwpt spread is still 3 degrees. Meanwhile, kmss received
0.34 of rainfall two days ago, and thinking with little spread
in temp/dwpt some intervals of light fog is possible toward
sunrise. Have utilized tempo for mvfr conditions at mss.
Otherwise...vfr conditions prevail on thursday with light winds.

Outlook...

Friday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Friday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Saturday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Saturday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA.
Sunday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance SHRA.
Sunday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance SHRA.
Monday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance SHRA, Chance
TSRA.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Taber
NEAR TERM...Taber
SHORT TERM...Hastings
LONG TERM...Hastings
AVIATION...Taber


 
 
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