499
FXUS61 KBTV 250607
AFDBTV
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
107 AM EST Thu Dec 25 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
A renewed chance for light snow comes to us Christmas Day
morning, especially northern areas, with additional scattered
snow showers pushing southward following another cold front. In
its wake, Friday will be the coldest day of the period with
below zero wind chills in the morning. Thereafter, widespread
precipitation is expected by Sunday night with a wintry mix
possible.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 120 PM EST Wednesday...Mountain snow showers are winding
down as ridge of surface high pressure builds into the area.
Minimum temperatures will drop into the mid teens to lower 20s
tonight, and winds have weakened as pressure gradient is
decreasing. Next system to impact our area arrives early
Christmas morning, tracking this way from Canada and bringing
some light snow with it. Light snow will move into the area from
the northwest late tonight, and mostly impacts our northern
mountain zones. Some CAMS are showing potential for some lake
effect snow to the south of Lake Champlain later Thursday
afternoon and into the overnight. Maximum temperatures on
Thursday will range from the lower to upper 20s. High pressure
then ridges into our area out of Canada later Thursday into
Thursday night. Temperatures will be quite cold Thursday night
with single digits above and below zero anticipated.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT/...
As of 120 PM EST Wednesday...Cold Canadian high pressure over
the area early Friday morning will slide eastward making way for
next approaching system for our region as very active weather
pattern remains in place. Friday will be one of our coldest in a
while with high temperatures only reaching the single digits to
teens above zero. Even with light wind speeds, wind chills will
be in the single digits above and below zero for much of the
day. As the high pressure area moves to the east late in the
day, temperatures could continue to gradually rise even after
sunset with cold air advection ceasing. Skies will tend to be
overcast, although clouds will be high altitude ones, with
abundant low level dry air expected. These clouds will tend to
thicken with time and from the west, ahead of the next weather
system passing to our south. For Friday night a low pressure
system will track along the Ohio river valley and well south of
our region. Have opted to only mention chance for snow along our
southern periphery Friday night.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 120 PM EST Wednesday...The main focus for next week will
be a wintry system late Sunday into Monday. The past couple of
GFS runs have caught onto the ECMWF and CMC solutions: primary
low pressure lifts northeastward from the Ohio Valley, into
southeastern Ontario, staying just west of the St Lawrence
Valley as it moves by. This primary low is expected to
eventually give way to a secondary low which will develop in
southern New England into the Gulf of Maine. With a closer
primary low and later development of the secondary, there`s more
certainty in a mix of precipitation types as warm air rides
over cold air at the surface. 850 mb temperatures warm to 3-5C.
There`s still some question on how far northeast the warmer air
makes it before getting shunted back south as the secondary low
takes over. Surface temperatures are also in question; expect
we`ll see warming conditions Sunday night into Monday morning,
potentially up into the mid/upper 30s before colder air rushes
in behind a cold frontal passage Monday afternoon/night. Given
this, have introduced a wintry mix for late Sunday through
Monday morning, but tried to keep multiple precipitation types
in any one location given the continued uncertainty. Still,
expect any mix and/or plain rain to change back over to snow
later Monday into Monday night after the cold front moves
through. Snow showers will likely continue through Tuesday as
the upper trough swings overhead.
After the brief warm up on Monday, much colder conditions
return as we get under brisk northwest flow. Highs on Tuesday
and Wednesday will likely only be in the teens and 20s. Combined
with gusty northwest winds, wind chills near or below zero look
pretty likely both Tuesday and Wednesday.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Through 06Z Friday...It`s a somewhat difficult forecast for much of
the airspace with regards to operational impacts early in the
period. A relatively small area of light snow will overspread
northern portions of the area in the 06Z-09Z period, then chances of
snow, except at RUT, become greater in the 10Z-12Z timeframe ahead
of an incoming cold front. Aside from the snow, ceilings are largely
VFR except at EFK where cloud bases have been steady between 15-20
kft for the last few hours. In that 10Z-12Z period, and lingering
towards 14Z at MPV and SLK, prevailing IFR conditions can be
expected as snow becomes more steady.
Light south/southwest winds will give way to westerly to northwest
winds of 5-10 knots during the day, which will tend to become
increasingly gusty with 20-25 knots common, especially from 16Z to
00Z. Wind shear conditions are possible in the 10Z-14Z period, most
likely at MPV/SLK/EFK/RUT, in the vicinity of the cold front as 2000
ft westerly winds increase to near 30 knots as surface winds remain
light.
Outlook...
Friday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Friday Night: VFR. Chance SN.
Saturday: VFR. Slight chance SHSN.
Saturday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Sunday: VFR. Chance FZRA, Slight chance SN, Slight chance PL.
Sunday Night: VFR. Definite FZRA, Likely PL, Likely SN.
Monday: Mainly MVFR, with areas IFR possible. Definite SN,
Definite FZRA, Definite PL.
&&
.EQUIPMENT...
NOAA Weather Radio station WXM-44, transmitting from Mt.
Ascutney, Vermont, on frequency 162.475 MHz is non-operational
at this time. NWS technicians have diagnosed the problem, but
repairs will likely not be able to occur for quite some time due
to circumstances beyond our control. Therefore, the time of
return to service is currently unknown. The following NOAA
Weather Radio transmitters may be able to provide service during
this outage: WWG 50 from Burke Mtn, VT at 162.425 MHz and WNG
546 from Hanover, NH at 162.525 MHz.
The Colchester Reef meteorological station is out of service.
This site is not serviced by the NWS and there isn`t an
estimated return to service at present. Use extra caution when
navigating the broad waters of Lake Champlain. Please contact us
if you observe winds significantly deviating from the
recreational forecast.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Neiles
NEAR TERM...Neiles
SHORT TERM...Neiles
LONG TERM...Hastings
AVIATION...Kutikoff
EQUIPMENT...Team BTV
|
