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  Thursday October 19, 2017

 

NWS Area Forecast Discussion


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000
FXUS61 KBTV 180724
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
324 AM EDT Wed Oct 18 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure along the east coast of the United States will
maintain dry conditions across the North Country through Sunday.
With south to southwest winds in place, temperatures will warm
well above seasonal levels for mid to late October beginning
today, and continue through the upcoming weekend. The next
chance of appreciable precipitation occurs by Monday into
Tuesday of next week as a cold front crosses the area from west
to east.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 307 AM EDT Wednesday...Very quiet wx through the near-
term. A weak shortwave trough passing to our north across
southern Quebec is bringing partly to mostly cloudy skies during
the pre- dawn hours. However, this feature will depart to the
east rather quickly this morning, leaving mostly sunny
conditions for the balance of the daylight hrs. The sfc ridge
axis extending along the east coast of the U.S. and building
shortwave ridging aloft later today will bring dry weather thru
the period, with moderating temperatures. Should see highs into
the mid 60s in valley locations today. Gradient flow moderate
early this morning, with south winds 10-20 mph in the Champlain
Valley during the pre-dawn hrs, but slackening p-gradient will
result in S-SW daytime winds lowering to 5-10 mph. Lows mainly
in the 40s for tonight. Temperatures moderate further on
Thursday, reaching the upr 60s to lower 70s. Another mid-upr
level shortwave trough is progged by 00Z GFS to pass along the
intl border Thursday afternoon. This feature should bring an
increase in mid-upr level clouds, but dry low-level conditions
should preclude any precipitation.


&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
As of 306 PM EDT Tuesday...Area of surface high pressure
persists over the southeastern USA as weakening low over
northern Quebec attempts to drag a cold front near the
international border Thursday. With dry air in place over the
North Country - PWATS half inch or less - expect any moisture
from front to result in increased clouds, but no precipitation.
Behind the front and associated mid-upper level trough, ridging
at the surface and aloft build into the northeast. Ridging will
persist through the weekend.

Temperatures will be above normal throughout the period,
starting in the 60s to near 70 on Thursday and cooler on Friday
behind the cold front, then rebounding back into the 60s to low
70s for the weekend.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 306 PM EDT Tuesday...Sunday will be warm ahead of cold
front associated with longwave trough which will dig southward
from Ontario. This system will provide multiple chances for
showers into the middle of next week. PWATs look to increase to
around 1 inch, possibly more in strong SW flow. Wind channeling
up the valleys could result in strong gusty winds Monday into
Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Through 12Z Thursday...Mainly VFR/dry conditions. Upper level
disturbance passing across srn Quebec is bringing SCT-BKN040-060
to the region, with localized MVFR conditions at SLK with
upslope flow conditions early this AM. It appears any localized
MVFR in the mountains will dissipate after 14-15Z this morning,
leaving mainly clear conditions through the balance of the TAF
period. SFC winds will remain S-SW thru the period, initially
10-15kts, but generally 5-10kts for the daylight hrs and thru
tonight.

Outlook...

Wednesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Thursday: VFR. Breezy. NO SIG WX.
Thursday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Friday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Friday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Saturday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Saturday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Sunday: VFR. NO SIG WX.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
KTYX radar at Fort Drum, New York will remain down for
scheduled maintenance through a good portion of today (October
18) as technicians repaint the radome.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Banacos
NEAR TERM...Banacos
SHORT TERM...KGM
LONG TERM...KGM
AVIATION...Banacos
EQUIPMENT...Team BTV



 
 
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