106
FXUS61 KBTV 101129
AFDBTV
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
629 AM EST Tue Feb 10 2026
.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
As of 204 AM EST Tuesday...
The Winter Weather Advisory has been expanded across central and
eastern Vermont for the 2pm Tuesday through 7am Wednesday period for
snowfall accumulations of 3-5". Heaviest snowfall rates - briefly
reaching 1"/hr - are expected this evening.
&&
.KEY MESSAGES...
As of 204 AM EST Tuesday...
1. A widespread light to moderate snowfall remains on track for
this afternoon into tonight. Heaviest snowfall rates will likely
affect the evening commute from northern New York eastward into the
Champlain Valley and n-central VT. Expect slow travel.
2. Upslope snow continues Wednesday into Wednesday night across
the Adirondacks and Green Mountains, with additional light snowfall
accumulations in these areas.
3. A coastal low could bring some snow and rain to the area
Sunday night into Monday.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
As of 204 AM EST Tuesday...
KEY MESSAGE 1: An Alberta Clipper approaching from the northern Great
Lakes region is expected to bring a period of steady snow to the
North Country from west-to-east by mid-afternoon across the St.
Lawrence Valley, and in time for the evening commute across the
Champlain Valley. NWP continues to show deformation and
frontogenesis on leading edge of 850-700mb jet and low-level warm
air advection associated with this system. This will result in
a focused period of strong ascent during the evening commute,
with snowfall rates likely reaching 1"/hr for a period of a
couple of hours. The 00Z HREF >1"/hr snowfall rate probabilities
are between 60-90% across most of nrn NY and central/nrn VT,
and maximized in the Champlain Valley at 23Z today. This will
likely yield widespread slow travel conditions due to snow
covered roads and vsby down to 1/4 mile late this afternoon and
this evening. Have expanded the Winter Weather Advisory across
central/ern/nern VT with snowfall amounts generally in the 3-5"
range based on latest indications, and with the aforementioned
brief period of heavy snowfall rates. Looking for snow ratios in
the 13:1 to 15:1 range, and appears most impacts from this snow
event will be travel related.
Snowfall rates should lessen from W-E between 01-03Z Wed as best
synoptic and mesoscale forcing moves to our east relatively quickly.
Should see some continued periods of lighter snowfall during the
overnight hours with a mid-level dry slot cutting down on dendrite
growth and SLRs.
Total snowfall by 7am Wednesday generally 3-6", but could see some
amounts locally higher in the northern Green Mountains and along the
western slopes of the nrn Adirondacks where orographic ascent
in westerly flow will augment the larger-scale forcing. Should
see slightly lower amts (2-4") across the srn Champlain Valley,
including wrn Addison and Rutland counties, and eastern Essex NY
county.
KEY MESSAGE 2: On Wednesday, the aforementioned shortwave trough
deepens offshore across the Gulf of Maine and south of Nova Scotia
on Wednesday. Associated deepening of closed 700-500mb low across
nrn New England should increase moist cyclonic flow into nrn VT and
the Adirondacks by mid-day Wednesday. As a result, it appears we`ll
see upslope snow shower activity become reinvigorated Wednesday
afternoon and evening. An additional 2-3" snowfall is expected
across the higher terrain of the central/nrn Greens and northern
slopes of the Adirondacks. Should see an additional coating to 2" in
the Champlain Valley and along the Canadian border in nrn NY and far
nern VT. In terms of impacts, some additional winter travel
conditions can be expected Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday night,
especially across the higher terrain.
KEY MESSAGE 3: We continue to monitor the potential for a coastal low
to impact our forecast area Sunday night and Monday. Overall
predictability for this system remains lower than normal, given
questionable interaction and potential phasing with a northern
stream low. The end result is low consistency among different model
runs, so it`s difficult to go into specifics at this point.
Probabilistic guidance including the GEFS, ENS, GEPS, and NBM shows
50th percentile 24 hour snow amounts in the Monday to Tuesday
timeframe generally in the 1-4 inch range. Probabilities of 24 hour
snowfall amounts greater than 4 inches are between 25 to 35 percent
over our southern counties, and around 10 to 20 percent in our
northern counties. Daytime surface high temperatures reach into the
mid to upper 30s Monday and Tuesday, which will allow for the
possibility of some rain mixing into lower elevations.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Through 12Z Wednesday...Conditions will remain predominantly VFR
through this morning. Between 18Z to 00Z, expect flight
conditions to deteriorate as light to moderate snow spreads
over the area. With snow spreading in from west to east, MSS and
SLK will be the first to see lowered ceilings and visibilities.
These sites will see ceilings lower to MVFR initially between
18Z and 21Z, then remain predominantly IFR after 21Z as snow
intensities peak at over 1"/hr at times between 21Z and 03Z.
PBG, BTV, RUT, MPV, and EFK will see onset of snow delayed a few
hours, with deterioration to MVFR/IFR conditions expected
mainly between 21Z and 06Z.
Winds are currently near calm, but are expected to increase as
the system moves through. Winds will trend southeast around 5-10
knots between 18Z and 00Z. A southwesterly low-level jet will
graze our southern counties, resulting in some low level wind
shear at KSLK and KRUT after 00Z.
Outlook...
Wednesday: Mainly MVFR, with local VFR possible. Chance SHSN.
Wednesday Night: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. Slight
chance SHSN.
Thursday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. NO SIG WX.
Thursday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Friday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Friday Night: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. Slight chance
SN.
Saturday: VFR/MVFR conditions possible. NO SIG WX.
&&
.CLIMATE...
As of 204 AM EST Tuesday...
In Burlington, the last day with a temperature breaking 32 degrees
was January 22nd. The next time we are forecasting temperatures
rising above 32 is this Sunday, February 15th. If that forecast
holds, that would be 23 days in a row below freezing. Sub-freezing
temperature streaks surpassing 22 days are fairly unusual in the
Burlington area, last happening January-February 2015 and only
occurring 17 times going back across the last 141 winter seasons.
&&
.EQUIPMENT...
NOAA Weather Radio station WXM-44, transmitting from Mt.
Ascutney, Vermont, on frequency 162.475 MHz is non- operational
at this time. NWS technicians have diagnosed the problem, but
repairs will likely not be able to occur for quite some time due
to circumstances beyond our control. Therefore, the time of
return to service is currently unknown. The following NOAA
Weather Radio transmitters may be able to provide service during
this outage: WWG 50 from Burke Mtn, VT at 162.425 MHz and WNG
546 from Hanover, NH at 162.525 MHz.
The Colchester Reef meteorological station is out of service.
This site is not serviced by the NWS and there isn`t an
estimated return to service at present. Please contact us if
you observe winds significantly deviating from the recreational
forecast.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...Winter Weather Advisory from 2 PM this afternoon to 7 AM EST
Wednesday for VTZ001>008-010-016>021.
NY...Winter Weather Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 7 AM EST
Wednesday for NYZ026-027-029>031-034-087.
Winter Weather Advisory from 2 PM this afternoon to 7 AM EST
Wednesday for NYZ028.
&&
$$
WHAT HAS CHANGED...Banacos
DISCUSSION...Duell/Banacos
AVIATION...Duell
CLIMATE...Duell
EQUIPMENT...NWS BTV
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