Current conditions from King Hill
Updated every 5 minutes
  Tuesday April 13, 2021


NWS Area Forecast Discussion

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FXUS61 KBTV 130229

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
1029 PM EDT Mon Apr 12 2021

Quiet weather is expected to continue through Wednesday as we
remain trapped between two upper level lows. Temperatures will
remain seasonal, albeit above normal, with highs in the 60s and
lows in the 30s and 40s. The upper level low to our west will
move toward the North Country on Thursday which will bring the
next chance of rainfall to the region. Rain chances will
continue into early this weekend before high pressure builds
back across the region.


As of 1026 PM EDT Monday...Main changes for the 1030 pm update
this evening was to reflect current satellite trends on our sky
grids. Previous discussion follows.

A decaying upper level low continues to track across western
Pennsylvania this afternoon and is expected to dissipate this
evening over Delaware and New Jersey. Light rainfall continues
to be observed across Central New York but building mid- level
heights will continue to suppress any rainfall to the south of
our forecast area this evening. In the mean time, easterly flow
in the low levels has helped advect a maritime air mass into
Vermont with dewpoints increasing this afternoon with noticeably
cooler temperatures compared to the past several days. We will
see a lot of this cloud cover dissipate during the overnight
hours as drier air filters into the region which will allow for
lows to drop into the mid 30s to lower 40s. Very quiet weather
is in store for the North Country on Tuesday as we will remain
trapped between two cut off low pressure systems. Highs will
warm nicely under partly to mostly sunny skies into the lower to
mid 60s with no chances of rainfall once again. We will likely
see some lake breezes tomorrow afternoon at Burlington and
Plattsburgh given the temperature differential between the land
and lake and very weak synoptic flow which could bring some
cooler temperatures to the lake shore.


As of 325 PM EDT Monday...Upper low remains far enough to our
west on Wednesday and Wednesday night that much of the area
should remain dry. Cannot rule out a shower or two during the
afternoon over northern New York, but that is about it. High
temperatures will generally be in the 60s with lows Wednesday
night in the mid 30s to mid 40s.


As of 325 PM EDT Monday...Still no consistency in the long
range data with the next upper low moving toward the region
Thursday into Friday. But here is what we do know...upper low
will approach the region Thursday, but then the blocking pattern
will force it to our south and east. This will establish a
north to south gradient of precipitation chances with highest
south and lowest north. Dynamic cooling associated with the
upper low suggests temperatures just off the surface would cool
enough to produce some high elevation snow, generally above 1000
feet. At this time the southern Green Mountains would have the
best chance at seeing some of this snow. Given how the longer
range data has struggled overall with the blocking pattern, kept
precipitation probabilities in the slight chance to chance
category. But the values are higher based on NBM Viewer
probabilities of 0.01 and 0.10 inches with this event. System
eventually moves far enough south and east for precipitation to
come to an end and dry weather returns for Saturday. A few
showers will be possible on Sunday as an upper trough approaches
the region. Overall still looking above normal temperatures,
generally several degrees above normal.


Through 00Z Wednesday...Mainly VFR, though some low-level
moisture may get trapped below mountain ridges in light flow,
with FEW to SCT at 2000-2500ft AGL mentioned at a number of
terminals from about 06Z-12Z. However, think KSLK is most likely
to see MVFR ceilings from a BKN025 deck. Additionally, some
light showers will be possible at KSLK and KMSS between 07Z and
11Z, but no reductions in ceilings or visibilities are expected.
Winds decrease overnight and direction will be influenced by
terrain. So, southeasterly winds will develop overnight at KRUT
with northeast winds at KMSS. After 14Z, winds will become a bit
more northeast to north-northwest with speeds around 5 knots.
Clouds become SCT around 4000-6000ft AGL.


Tuesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Thursday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance RA.
Thursday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance RA.
Friday: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Chance RA.
Friday Night: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Slight chance
Saturday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. NO SIG WX.




NEAR TERM...Clay/Neiles
SHORT TERM...Evenson
LONG TERM...Evenson

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