FXUS61 KBTV 181710
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Burlington VT
110 PM EDT Mon Mar 18 2019
High pressure will continue to build down from Canada today. Dry
weather is expected along with a continuation of below normal
temperatures. There could be a few snow showers this evening
across parts of northern New York and again on Tuesday
afternoon. The remainder of the area will remain dry during this
period with temperatures remaining below normal. We will finally
see temperatures at or above normal on Wednesday.
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 731 AM EDT Monday...Going forecast in real good shape
with skies having cleared over most of the area and no
additional snow showers. Have had to tweak temperatures to match
for the wide range across the area...but highs are still
expected in the upper 20s to mid 30s.
The last of the light snow showers are moving across southern
Vermont early this morning and should be out of the area by
about 6am. Areal coverage of clouds will also be decreasing as
high pressure builds in along with drier. Below normal
temperatures will continue today with highs in the upper 20s to
mid 30s. A weak shortwave trough moves down across the area and
this could bring a few snow showers to parts of the northern
Adirondacks this evening...but most of the area will remain dry.
Clear skies and light winds later tonight will result in low
temperatures generally in the 5 to 15 degree range with
temperatures approaching zero in Essex county Vermont. Much of
Tuesday will be dry once again...but another weak shortwave
trough and some instability will bring a slight chance of snow
showers to parts of the northern Adirondacks. High temperatures
on Tuesday will be a couple of degrees warmer than Monday.
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 409 AM EDT Monday...The weather midweek will be shaped by
increasing southwesterly flow ahead of a sharpening shortwave
trough digging into the Great Lakes from central Canada. The
setup will bring warm air advection and positive moisture
advection to the Burlington forecast area, prompting a midweek
warming trend. Tuesday night, western portions of our forecast
area will feel the impacts of the warm air advection before
areas further east. This will translate to increasing cloud
cover and overnight low temperatures in the teens to mid 20s in
the Saint Lawrence and Champlain Valleys and the northern
Adirondacks. Further east however, central and eastern Vermont
will see overnight temperatures fall into the single digits to
Southerly winds and cloud cover will increase during the day
Wednesday as the system draws closer from the west. This will allow
temperatures to quickly climb during the day, reaching the low
to mid 40s by Wednesday afternoon.
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 409 AM EDT Monday...Some light precipitation will spread
over the region Wednesday night through Thursday ahead of a cold
front. Precipitation type will be dependent on elevation -
valleys will generally see rain or a rain/snow mix while higher
elevations will see some snow. As the front pushes through from
the west during the day Thursday, there is the potential for the
development of low pressure off the coast of New England, which
may stall precipitation over the area through Thursday night or
so. Nonetheless, by Friday afternoon the now strengthening
system will have departed the area and moved to the Canadian
Maritimes, putting the Burlington forecast area back in a
northwesterly flow showery regime. Scattered showers will
continue through Friday night, before the area dries out going
into the weekend.
With regards to temperatures, Thursday and Friday will be near
normal with highs in the upper 30s to low 40s. It still looks like
a cooling trend is in store for the weekend, however the shot of
cold air on the way for Saturday is not looking quite as scary as it
did a few days ago. While there is still some discrepancy between
the colder ECMWF and the more moderate GFS, temperatures will
only be 5 to 10 degrees below normal Friday night through Saturday
night. The colder air will quickly be shunted to the east by
strengthening high pressure to our south, and temperatures
Sunday will climb back to near or above seasonable normals.
.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Through 18Z Tuesday...VFR through the period with SCT to occnly
BKN cigs in the 040-070 AGL range. A scattered flurry here and
there across higher terrain, especially in the Adirondacks.
Winds generally west northwesterly 5 to 10 kts during the
daylight hours, and nearly calm overnight.
Tuesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday Night: VFR. Chance SHSN, Chance RA, Chance SN.
Thursday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance SHRA,
Thursday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance
SHSN, Chance SHRA.
Friday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance SHRA, Chance
Friday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Slight chance
Saturday: VFR. NO SIG WX.