FXUS61 KBTV 261901
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Burlington VT
301 PM EDT Sun May 26 2019
A warm front will push into the area this evening with
widespread rainfall expected along with a few non-severe
thunderstorms. Precipitation tapers off for Sunday as a weak
cold front drops through the area and high pressure builds in
from the west. Fair and mainly dry weather continues through
Tuesday before more unsettled conditions return for the later
half of the work week.
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
As of 1019 AM EDT Sunday...Going forecast remains in excellent
shape late this morning. Other than some noise-level tweaks to
hourly temperture and dewpoint trends over the next few hours no
changes were needed. Have a great day.
Excerpts from prior discussion...The trend of diminishing the
weak thunderstorm threat for today continues as models have
latched on to an earlier passage of the front (late this morning
into early afternoon). The earlier timing will severely limit
the amount of destabilization the atmosphere undergoes before
the boundary moves through, especially with the amount of low
clouds persisting through the morning. In addition, the mid and
upper- levels of the atmosphere are very dry this morning, which
will further limit thunderstorm potential.
Once the front moves through this afternoon, mixing heights will
increase, allowing for any remaining low clouds to mix out and for
the development of some fair weather cumulus clouds in their place.
Winds will shift to the north this afternoon and become a little
breezy as the front moves through. Temperatures today will be rather
warm, with highs reaching the mid to upper 70s in valley locations
and low 70s in higher elevations.
High pressure will build over the area overnight tonight, which will
lead to clearing skies and diminishing winds. Overnight lows will
be in the upper 40s to around 50.
A weak cold front will move through from the north during the
afternoon Monday. Moisture will be very limited as the front moves
through, but can`t rule some isolated light showers associated with
the frontal passage. Temperatures Monday will be slightly below
normal due to the continued northerly cold air advection, but
overall Monday should be a pleasant late spring day with highs in
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 300 PM EDT Sunday...Guidance is still in good agreement that
the northern tier of the forecast area will remain dry on Tuesday.
NW flow aloft will keep most of the energy away from the area as
this decaying convection from the midwest slides well south of the
area across PA & southern New England. The best chances for
precipitation will be across our southern portions of northern New
York and Vermont (Rutland and Windsor counties). Overall
precipitation amounts with this system look minimal with less than
0.1" across central zones and around 0.25" for our far southern
areas. Temperatures on Tuesday will largely be a function of cloud
cover...northern areas should climb into the upper 60s under
filtered sunny skies, with southern areas holding in the low 60s.
Lows Tuesday night will be near normal in the upper 40s to around
50. With light winds at the surface, patchy fog may develop
especially in areas that see measurable precipitation.
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 300 PM EDT Sunday...NW flow aloft will keep first part of
Wednesday dry but once again decaying convection moving east will
bring renewed chances for precipitation late Wednesday
afternoon/evening. Still some uncertainty in where and how much
precipitation...12z run of GFS current outlier with convection
staying to our south due to continued persistent NW flow aloft, so
have taken blend of ECMWF/GFS/NBM which still shows unsettled
weather for this time period...we will continue to monitor potential
for heavy rain with this decaying convection as PWATs associated
with is are upwards of 1.75". After, active weather continues as
flow turns more southwest aloft with chances for precipitation and
thunderstorms Thursday. Good support for widespread rain/isolated
convection Thursday evening with good surge of moisture,
strengthening 850mb jet and upper level trough moving through.
Overall, temperatures through the extended will be near to above
normal, especially on Thursday as 925mb temperatures climb to
.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Through 18Z Monday...VFR through the period. Cold front is
clearing through the area as of 1730Z with winds shifting to
west/northwesterly from 8-12 kts and occnl gusts to near 20 kts.
Cigs generally SCT to occnly BKN in the 050-090 AGL range
through 00Z, then trending mainly SKC overnight as winds trend
light. Other than a brief sprinkle at northern terminals through
20Z or so, no pcpn is expected. After 12Z SKC in the morning
trends SCT/BKN from 050-080 AGL by 18Z at most terminals with
approach of another weak front. Little pcpn expected with this
feature so have kept conditions dry at this point as light
northerly winds average 5-8 kts from 340-020.
Monday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
Tuesday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA.
Wednesday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Likely SHRA,
Wednesday Night: MVFR. Chance SHRA, Chance TSRA.
Thursday: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. Likely SHRA,
Thursday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance
SHRA, Slight chance TSRA.
Friday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Slight chance SHRA.