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  Tuesday May 23, 2017

 

NWS Area Forecast Discussion


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000
FXUS61 KBTV 220751
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
351 AM EDT Mon May 22 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Rain will taper off west to east across the north country during
the pre-dawn hours. Lighter rain showers and overcast skies
will linger today, resulting in relatively cool temperatures.
Dry conditions return on Tuesday with a brief period of surface
high pressure, before another low pressure system brings more
rain for the end of the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 200 AM EDT Monday...Ended rain west to east much more
quickly with this update as radar trends showing back end of
precip moving into western NY state, and high resolution model
reflectivity showing it as well. Updated grids with a mix of the
model reflectivity which has a dry period mainly this morning.
Another area of scattered showers are possible this afternoon as
a final weak shortwave trough moves through the region to
finish things off. Also backed off QPF with the rain ending
earlier. No changes to temps/winds/sky with this update.

Best large-scale forcing slides to our east between 12-15Z
Monday, but NAM RH profiles indicate continued saturated
conditions in 950-850mb layer, and skies will generally remain
cloudy with low overcast in place. The low-level inversion
layer in place will keep sfc temps cool, despite 850mb thermal
ridge in place (+10C to +11C) across nrn NY. Sfc high temps
generally low- mid 50s east of the Greens, upr 50s in the
Champlain Valley, and upr 50s to lower 60s across nrn NY.
Maintained a chance of showers Monday afternoon. There is some
indication of a trailing sfc trough/convergence line moving ewd
across nrn NY into VT late in the afternoon, which may result in
an additional period of (brief) rain shower activity.

A weak sfc ridge builds newd into our region from western NY
Monday night. This results in lowering inversion layer and light
near-sfc winds. With moist soils, will see combination of
abundant low clouds and patchy fog areawide. Moist layer is
quite shallow, so not anticipating any precipitation. Lows
Monday night mainly 43-48F.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 349 AM EDT Monday...Weak ridge both aloft and at the
surface build across our cwa on Weds...ahead of developing full
latitude trof over the MS River Valley. This ridging should keep
moisture and precip associated with weak low pres riding along
the eastern seaboard to our east on Tuesday Night into
Weds...with mainly a dry forecast anticipated. Progged 850mb
temps between 9-11c...support highs mainly in the mid/upper 60s
mountains to mid 70s warmer valleys on Weds. Mid/upper level
closed cyclonic circulation over the MS River Valley slowly
moves eastward toward the OH Valley on Weds Night....with
southerly winds and increasing clouds. Given the slow movement
of the closed system from the flow aloft...will keep Weds Night
dry with temps mainly in the 50s.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 349 AM EDT Monday...A period of unsettled weather likely Thursday into Friday... with
occasional rain showers and breezy southerly winds. Closed mid/upper
level circulation will slowly track toward the Mid Atlantic States
as 998mb low pres is located near Binghamton, NY by 00z Friday. The
combination of strong southerly flow between 850 and 500mb will help
advect deeper layer moisture into our cwa...with PWS >1.0
developing. The initial warm air advection surge will produce a
period of showers on Thursday with qpf values generally between 0.10
and 0.25. Some downslope shadowing/enhancement on southeast 925mb to
850mb of 30 to 40 knots is likely. Meanwhile...strong 5h energy
rounds mid/upper level trof base on Thursday Night...with system
becoming vertically stacked over southern New England by Friday. The
combination of easterly 925mb to 700mb flow and favorable energy
aloft will produce another round of light to moderate rainfall on
THursday night into Friday. Depending upon exact track of low
pres...will determine placement of heaviest qpf... but nose of 850mb
jet would suggest central/eastern VT. Thinking additional qpf will
range between 0.25 western areas to 0.75 central/eastern VT...with
around 0.50 in the CPV. Will mention likely pops for this period.

Friday night into Saturday...system will slowly lift northeast with
mainly light terrain driven/upslope showers persisting into
Saturday. Difficult to time individual pieces of s/w energy in the
northwest flow aloft...but thinking lingering mid level moisture and
favorable upslope flow...some rain shower activity is possible into
Saturday.

Sunday...Still some uncertainty on Sunday with timing of warm front
feature and associated potential for showers. At this time...Sunday
Morning looks dry...with a chance of showers increasing during the
afternoon hours...along with increasing humidity levels. Any precip
looks to be light and generally under 0.20".

For temps...mainly the mid 60s to mid 70s For Thursday... but only
mid/upper 50s to mid 60s with widespread clouds/rain showers for
Friday with coolest values across the eastern mountains. Weekend
temps mainly in the mid 60s to mid 70s for highs and lows mid 40s to
mid 50s. No major heat anticipated with general mid/upper level trof
across the NE Conus this upcoming weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Through 00Z Tuesday...Rain ending west to east but little effect
on flight categories with most visibilities and cigs VFR.
Ceilings to gradually lower to MVFR throughout the day, even as
rain dissipates low level moisture remains trapped below the
subsidence inversion under building high pressure aloft. low
level winds become gusty during the day out of the south with
gusts into 20-25kt range.

Outlook...

Tuesday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday: VFR. Chance SHRA.
Wednesday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA.
Thursday: VFR. Chance SHRA.
Thursday Night: VFR. Likely SHRA.
Friday: VFR/MVFR. Likely SHRA.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 231 PM EDT Sunday...A Lake Wind Advisory is in effect
starting at midnight (04Z Monday). Gradient flow increases out
of the south during the pre- dawn hours Monday, with sustained
winds over Lake Champlain reaching 15-25kts after midnight and
waves building to 2-4 feet. The highest waves are expected
across the northern portion of the broad lake south of Grand
Isle. South winds will remain generally in the 15-25kt range
during the daylight hours on Monday, before diminishing Monday
evening.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Banacos
NEAR TERM...Hanson
SHORT TERM...Taber
LONG TERM...Taber
AVIATION...Hanson
MARINE...Team BTV



 
 
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