FXUS61 KBTV 211722
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Burlington VT
1222 PM EST Thu Feb 21 2019
A warm front lifting through the region this morning will bring an
end to areas of light snow and drizzle with increasing southerly
winds through the day warming temperatures into the mid to upper
30s. A weak cold front moves across the area tonight with a few
mountain snow showers possible, followed by high pressure for Friday
and Saturday. A more potent low pressure system will bring a wintry
mix Saturday night, followed by warming temps and rain for Sunday,
and widespread snow showers Sunday night into Monday.
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 1216 PM EST Thursday...Abundant cloud cover continues to
stifle temperatures this afternoon with temperatures 2-4 degrees
below forecasted values. Have trended temps down a few degrees
overall with satellite not showing much in terms of breaks in
the cloud cover. Nevertheless, temps should still hover in the
mid 30s to lower 40s with a few places across southern Vermont
pushing the mid 40s. A few showers continue to slide across
northern Vermont and northern New York this afternoon but are
dropping very little in terms of snowfall with a dry DGZ. Minor
accumulations are possible from Burlington north through the
afternoon hours but it looks like PoPs will dwindle quickly
heading into the evening hours. With temps under-performing, so
have the winds. With the lack of mixing a core of stronger winds
aloft, we have only seen winds in the 20 to 25 mph range. That
may change here in the next few hours but generally it looks
like winds should be a touch weaker than initially thought.
Previous Discussion...As surface low pressure over the Great
Lakes continues to track northeast into southern Quebec this
morning we`ll continue to see a general decrease in areal
coverage of precipitation though areas of drizzle and/or
freezing drizzle are possible through mid-morning. Have
cancelled the winter weather advisory for eastern Vermont based
on radar trends, but also after observing area webcams which
have shown less snow has fallen overnight than previously
forecast. Roads will have a light snow cover and probably be
slick for the morning commute, but hey, that`s winter in the
North Country. Moving through the day as the area moves more
firmly into the warm sector south/southwesterly winds will be
increasing with gusts in the 15- 25mph range likely along with
surface temps rising into the mid/upper 30s.
For tonight, a trailing cold front will track through the region and
while low level moisture will remain abundant the overall forcing is
rather weak so think any precip will be confined to the higher
terrain with perhaps a dusting to an inch of snow accumulation
possible. Skies should remain fairly cloudy as a mid-level
subsidence inversion sets up so have gone a few degrees above
guidance with lows mainly in the low/mid 20s. On Friday, incoming
high pressure will provide drying conditions with skies gradually
scouring out and some sunshine likely by the late afternoon. Highs
will be near normal in the upper 20s to mid 30s.
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 410 AM EST Thursday...A large area of high pressure will exist
over the entire Northeast Friday night into Saturday. This will
allow for dry weather along with some sunshine. Since the high is
building in from the west low temperatures Friday night will
generally be in the teens. Highs on Saturday will be in the 30s
which should make for a rather nice day.
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 410 AM EST Thursday...Active weather is expected Saturday night
through Monday. First we will see another mixed precipitation event
late Saturday night into Sunday morning as a strong low pressure
system remains to our northwest. A warm front with its associated
warm air advection moves from southwest to northeast across our area
after midnight Saturday night with warmest air aloft working its way
up into northern New York during the early morning hours on Sunday.
This area will have the best chance for seeing a wintry mix along
with the potential for some light ice accumulations. Across Vermont
the bulk of the precipitation during the early morning hours on
Sunday will be snow with some sleet and eventually rain mixing in.
Any snow accumulations at this time early Sunday morning look to be
up to an inch of snow. Sunday should see all areas transition over
to rain as highs reach the upper 30s to upper 40s. The main issue on
Sunday...especially late in the day and Sunday night will be deeper
mixing that develops and allows stronger flow aloft to mix down and
create rather gusty conditions. Looking at much of the area
experiencing wind gusts in the 35 to 45 mph range and could see the
Saint Lawrence Valley and the highest elevations of the northern
Adirondacks and Green Mountains getting even stronger wind gusts.
Definitely a situation to keep an eye on. The gusty winds will
actually continue right into Monday as flow becomes more west to
northwest. This will help decrease the areal coverage of
precipitation and see it transition from rain back over to snow as
it becomes more tied to the higher terrain given the flow pattern.
With the developing west to northwest flow aloft we will return to
drier conditions Tuesday and Wednesday along with below normal
.AVIATION /17Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Through 18Z Friday...For the most part, it looks like shower
activity has dwindled quickly across the North Country early
this afternoon. A few stray showers cannot be ruled out but it
appears an restrictions on visibilities will be limited. That
being said, MVFR to VFR ceilings persist at the moment and the
general trend should be to improve these ceilings heading into
the evening and overnight hours although KSLK will likely remain
MVFR through the forecast package. Winds have been a touch
weaker than thought as temperatures today have under-performed
under thick cloud cover. We should still see a wind shift from
the southwest to northwest late this afternoon into the evening
but it looks like winds will be 22 knots or less for the most
part. Winds will begin to weaken after midnight as we begin to
stabilize the surface layer and the core of stronger winds aloft
slides off to our east.
Friday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Saturday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Saturday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Definite
PL, Chance SN, Definite FZRA.
Sunday: Mainly MVFR, with local VFR possible. Windy with gusts to
30 kt. Definite RA, Definite SHRA, Definite FZRA.
Sunday Night: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. Strong winds with
gusts to 40 kt. Likely SHSN, Likely SHRA.
Monday: VFR. Strong winds with gusts to 40 kt. Chance SHSN.
Monday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHSN.
Tuesday: VFR. NO SIG WX.