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  Sunday January 26, 2020

 

NWS Area Forecast Discussion


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000
FXUS61 KBTV 210749
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
249 AM EST Tue Jan 21 2020

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will generally control regional weather
conditions through Friday with mainly dry weather and moderating
temperatures. Low pressure will move into the Northeast over
the upcoming weekend with increasing chances of light to
moderate snows.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 249 AM EST Tuesday...Mainly quiet weather is expected
over the next 42 hours as high pressure over the Ohio
Valley/Great Lakes builds gradually eastward into the Mid-
Atlantic/Northeast. An upper shortwave trough passing off to our
north and east will spread mid and high level cloud cover into
the area today into tonight with little fanfare other than a
stray light snow shower/flurry across the far northern Greens.
Highs today generally in the 16 to 24 range, mildest far west.
Then somewhat milder tonight under variable cloud cover - mainly
single digits to mid teens for most spots, perhaps a tad warmer
far west. Skies will then trend partly sunny over time on
Wednesday as subsident and dry anticyclonic flow aloft becomes
established. With warming thermal profiles aloft temperatures
should respond nicely with mid afternoon highs in the upper 20s
to lower 30s from the Dacks east, and low to mid 30s in the SLV.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 249 AM EST Tuesday...High pressure will begin to shift
eastward Wednesday night, with clear skies and calm winds across
our eastern zones and increasing high clouds across the St
Lawrence Valley. The coldest temperatures will be east of the
Greens with lows in the upper single digits to low teens.
Temperatures moderate as you head westward with lows in the mid
teens Champlain Valley & northern Adirondacks, and low twenties
across the St Lawrence Valley. As high pressure continues to
shift eastward off the New England coastline Thursday,
increasing W-SW flow across the area will warm temperatures into
the low to mid 30s under light southerly flow. Overall, it
should shape up to be a really nice January day with mostly
sunny skies.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 249 AM EST Tuesday...Quiet weather and high pressure
remain in place through late Friday. No precipitation is
expected through this period with mild January temperatures in
the mid to upper 30s for highs and mid teens to low twenties at
night. The main story for the extended is the system expected to
impact the North Country late Saturday into Sunday. Model
agreement on the track of low pressure is surprisingly good with
little spread between GFS/Canadian/ECMWF. Low pressure moving
east off the Rockies and southern Gulf states consolidates near
the Ohio River Valley before trekking eastward off the coast of
New Jersey. GFS Ensembles show anomalously strong high pressure
over southern Quebec, suppressing the ability for the low to
track further north. This should mean thermal profiles are
supportive of snow across the area, however marginal boundary
layer temperatures will mean lower snow ratios, more of the wet,
sticky variety snow. Just looking at deterministic guidance,
there is quite a spread among the models in regard to snowfall
totals. Just based on track of low, the best chance for
accumulating totals will be across our southern areas with a
tight gradient as you head north due to the drier air associated
with the high just to our north. After this, the pattern across
the eastern US looks to remain active with upper- level pattern
largely dominated by subtropical jet.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Through 06Z Wednesday...VFR conditions throughout the period
with dry air mass and high pressure in control. Mid/high clouds
will begin to spread over the area Tuesday morning/early
afternoon, but ceilings will generally remain at or above 080
kft. Winds will be light and variable tonight, averaging less
than 5 kts. Winds will shift into the S-SW Tuesday afternoon at
5-10kt.

Outlook...

Wednesday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Thursday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Thursday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Friday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Friday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Saturday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SN, Chance
RA.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMG
NEAR TERM...JMG
SHORT TERM...LaRocca
LONG TERM...LaRocca
AVIATION...JMG


 
 
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