531
FXUS61 KBTV 301751
AFDBTV
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
151 PM EDT Tue Sep 30 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
A dry cold front will drop out of Canada will move through
early this morning bringing northerly breezes and temperatures
ten to as much as 20 degrees cooler than yesterday. Cooler
temperatures will persist through Friday before warming again
over the weekend. Areas of frost mainly outside the Champlain
Valley are possible, especially Wednesday and Thursday nights.
The next chances of rain will likely hold off until early next
week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 223 AM EDT Tuesday...Water and IR imagery are highlighting
a sharp frontal boundary tracking south out of Canada at this
hour. Thermal packing is tight across the boundary which will
result in strong cold air advection. However, the boundary and
airmass pushing it are quite dry. As a result RH will be
dropping through the day with minimums generally ranging 30-40%.
With gusts around 20 mph some very isolated fire weather
concerns are possible for localized areas like exposed north-
facing mid/upper slopes and portions of the Champlain Valley.
With ongoing drought, a little extra care to not create sparks
would be advisable. Temperatures drop sharply overnight with
continued cold air advection. While lows will range 30-40
degrees for many locations outside the Champlain Valley, the
pressure gradient should be tight enough to keep winds going for
most spots except for a few sheltered hollows. Breezes continue
WEdnesday, and could slightly increase; lake wind gusts up to
20-30 mph will lead to rough conditions on Lake Champlain
Wednesday. For fire concerns, RH will not be critical since
high temperatures will be markedly lower ranging in the 50s to
around 60 degrees for most locations.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
As of 223 AM EDT Tuesday...The pressure gradient is expected to
weaken sharply as high pressure moves more overhead Wednesday
night into Thursday. Clear skies will promote a strong radiation
inversion and colder overnight lows mainly in the 30s to around
40 degrees. Most locations outside of the immediately Champlain
Valley could see some frost as a result. Temperatures will
marginally warm over Wendesday`s highs as the air mass begins to
modify; highs in the mid/upper 50s to mid 60s are favored
Thursday afternoon.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 151 PM EDT Tuesday...From Friday onward drier and warmer
weather is expected for the most part. Surface and upper level
ridging will dominate our weather pattern from Friday through
early Monday, but then ridge will begin to break down. On
Tuesday a weak front will drop southward across our area, but at
this time looks like we`ll mainly just see some clouds with
this surface feature. Tuesday night into Wednesday we`ll have a
stronger frontal system cross our area, perhaps bringing our
only chance of precipitation through the next week. Very warm
temperatures are expected from Saturday through Monday with some
80 degree readings possible early next week.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Through 18Z Wednesday...VFR conditions are strongly favored for
most locations through the forecast period. Otherwise,
northerly flow will be increasing with speeds becoming 10-15kts
with some gusts up 25kts for channeled valleys; BTV/PBG were
capped at 20kts, but there could be a few gusts to 25kts in the
18-21Z time frame. Winds decrease after 23Z, but will likely
keep some northerly component through the remainder of the
period. There could be some fog encroaching on SLK/MPV/EFK
tonight after 06Z, but winds remains aloft and could preclude
fog formation.
Outlook...
Wednesday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday Night: VFR. Patchy frost.
Thursday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Thursday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Friday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Friday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Saturday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...Frost Advisory from 1 AM to 7 AM EDT Wednesday for VTZ004.
NY...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Boyd
NEAR TERM...Boyd
SHORT TERM...Boyd
LONG TERM...Neiles
AVIATION...Neiles
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