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  Friday June 22, 2018

 

NWS Area Forecast Discussion


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000
FXUS61 KBTV 202340
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
740 PM EDT Wed Jun 20 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will move in from the northwest this evening and help
spark scattered showers across the international border. Drier
air behind the cold front will suppress how far south the shower
activity is observed. This drier air will also lead to clearing
skies for the remainder of the work week with sunny skies on
tap Thursday and Friday. Showers and thunderstorms are expected
over the weekend as a warm front moves in from the south on
Saturday and a cold front approaches from the northwest on
Sunday. High pressure will build across the North Country
beginning Monday which will lead to sunny skies and seasonably
warm temperatures prevailing through the first half of next
week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
As of 740 PM EDT Wednesday...Going forecast in great shape with
limited changes needed at this time. Essentially the only
change was to remove any mention of thunder based on
meteorological trends. Otherwise a few showers possible around
the Canadian Border with mid level clouds spreading southward
tonight. Forecast has all this handled well.

Previous Discussion...
Mesoanalysis this afternoon shows some skinny CAPE developing
across northern Vermont and northern New York as temperatures
warm into the upper 70s to near 80 degrees. An approaching cold
front over southeastern Ontario will interact with this limited
instability and help spark a few showers near the international
border. There is also a very slight chance of a thunderstorm or
two but given how weak the cold front will be by the time it
gets here and the limited instability, it wouldn`t be surprising
to see no thunderstorms at all. Current forecast shows drier
trends from Burlington southward as drier air catches up to the
cold front and any instability present during afternoon heating
quickly wanes as the front will push through during the late
evening/overnight hours.

Thursday looks to be a beautiful day across the North Country as
skies quickly clear behind the cold front that will push through
overnight tonight. With dry air advecting southward and high
pressure beginning to settle over the region, clear skies are
expected to prevail throughout the day. Some gusty winds along
Lake Champlain and vicinity could be seen briefly during the
early morning hours as a decent gradient wind sets up as high
pressure is build into the region. High temperatures on Thursday
will be slightly below normals as temperatures only climb into
the upper 60s to lower 70s. Thursday night will be a little on
the chilly side with temperatures in the 40s with portions of
the northern Adirondacks dropping into the mid 30s. Nevertheless,
with decreasing dewpoints and slightly below temperatures,
Thursday afternoon is shaping up to be a beautiful first day of
summer.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
As of 344 PM EDT Wednesday...Large scale pattern shows surface high
pres and associated ridge shifting off the coast as slow moving
closed 5h/7h circulation and low pres is located over the Ohio
Valley. Moisture and dynamics will be slowly moving toward our
cwa, but with large dry layer in place across the northeast
Conus will make timing of precip challenging. Have continued
with the idea of keeping Friday dry and increasing clouds/pops
on Friday Night into Saturday. Progged 850mb temps warm between
13 and 14c by 21z Friday with developing southerly winds,
supporting highs mid 70s to lower 80s. If high clouds are slower
to advance, temps could be several degrees warmer. Lows Friday
night mainly in the 50s to near 60f with light rain showers
arriving toward sunrise.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 344 PM EDT Wednesday...Models in good agreement showing
decaying mid/upper level closed circulation and associated low
pres lifting across the Great Lakes into eastern Canada. This
will help to advect deeper moisture into our cwa this weekend
with pw values increasing btwn 1.50 to 1.75 with limited sfc
based instability. GFS shows CAPE values of 200 to 400 j/kg both
on Saturday and Sunday afternoons so have continued to mention
slight chance in forecast for thunderstorms. Best combination
of short wave lift and 850 to 500mb moisture is btwn 18z Sat
into Saturday night, with additional energy arriving on Sunday
midday associated with northern stream trof. Given the dynamics
and moisture, expect an unsettled weekend with on and off
showers from time to time. Temps hold mainly in the upper 60s to
mid 70s for highs and lows in the upper 40s to upper 50s.

For early next week...1026mb high pres builds into the North Country
with mid/upper level ridging. This will produce dry weather with
mostly clear skies developing. Temps will start at or slightly below
normal for Tues, but warm to above normal values by Weds as progged
850mb temps approach 15c. Expecting highs mainly in the 70s
Monday/Tuesday with readings into the 80s by Weds/Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Through 00Z Friday...VFR conditions expected through the period.
Cold front is dropping out of Canada this evening and a band of
mid level clouds will be spreading southward through 12z. Any
ceilings will generally be above 5000 feet and any showers
through about 04z will be confined to the Canadian Border. Skies
should clear between 08z and 12z and winds will pick up from the
north after 12z...but speeds will generally be 10 knots or less.

Outlook...

Thursday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Friday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Friday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA.
Saturday: VFR. Likely SHRA, Slight chance TSRA.
Saturday Night: VFR/MVFR conditions possible. Likely SHRA.
Sunday: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Likely SHRA, Slight
chance TSRA.
Sunday Night: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. Chance SHRA.
Monday: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Chance SHRA.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Clay
NEAR TERM...Evenson/Clay
SHORT TERM...Taber
LONG TERM...Taber
AVIATION...Evenson/Clay



 
 
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