FXUS61 KBTV 261731
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Burlington VT
131 PM EDT Sun May 26 2019
A warm front will push into the area this evening with
widespread rainfall expected along with a few non-severe
thunderstorms. Precipitation tapers off for Sunday as a weak
cold front drops through the area and high pressure builds in
from the west. Fair and mainly dry weather continues through
Tuesday before more unsettled conditions return for the later
half of the work week.
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 1019 AM EDT Sunday...Going forecast remains in excellent
shape late this morning. Other than some noise-level tweaks to
hourly temperture and dewpoint trends over the next few hours no
changes were needed. Have a great day.
Excerpts from prior discussion...The trend of diminishing the
weak thunderstorm threat for today continues as models have
latched on to an earlier passage of the front (late this morning
into early afternoon). The earlier timing will severely limit
the amount of destabilization the atmosphere undergoes before
the boundary moves through, especially with the amount of low
clouds persisting through the morning. In addition, the mid and
upper- levels of the atmosphere are very dry this morning, which
will further limit thunderstorm potential.
Once the front moves through this afternoon, mixing heights will
increase, allowing for any remaining low clouds to mix out and for
the development of some fair weather cumulus clouds in their place.
Winds will shift to the north this afternoon and become a little
breezy as the front moves through. Temperatures today will be rather
warm, with highs reaching the mid to upper 70s in valley locations
and low 70s in higher elevations.
High pressure will build over the area overnight tonight, which will
lead to clearing skies and diminishing winds. Overnight lows will
be in the upper 40s to around 50.
A weak cold front will move through from the north during the
afternoon Monday. Moisture will be very limited as the front moves
through, but can`t rule some isolated light showers associated with
the frontal passage. Temperatures Monday will be slightly below
normal due to the continued northerly cold air advection, but
overall Monday should be a pleasant late spring day with highs in
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 424 AM EDT Sunday...Idea of northwest flow aloft having a
noticeable impact on our weather for Monday night and Tuesday still
looks good. Dry weather is expected Monday night as a result of this
flow pattern. And with the flow aloft not backing to the west until
late in the day on Tuesday the bulk of precipitation should remain
south of our area. Portions of the northern Adirondacks and the
southern half of Vermont will have the best chance of seeing showers
Tuesday afternoon with only a slight chance up across the northern
tier. With respect to temperatures lows Monday night will be in the
upper 30s to mid 40s...but in the mid 30s across parts of the
northern Adirondacks and Northeast Kingdom of Vermont. Have added
patchy frost in these areas. Highs on Tuesday will generally be in
the lower to mid 60s with 50s in the mountains.
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 424 AM EDT Sunday...Flow aloft transitions to the southwest
Tuesday night into Wednesday. Any showers Tuesday night should move
out of the area and there will likely be a period of dry weather on
Wednesday. Conditions will change Wednesday afternoon and the first
half of Wednesday night. Convective threat will increase as
instability develops over the area and deep layer shear increases as
well. In addition...precipitable water values increase and forecast
soundings suggest the potential for heavy rain with any of the
convection. This will definitely be something to keep an eye on.
Showers and storms will continue Wednesday evening before tapering
off during the overnight hours. Feel we are going to be on the dry
side Thursday morning with maybe a few showers around...but will
once again have to keep an eye on the afternoon hours. Higher
precipitable water air shifts east with some drying in the lower
levels. At the same time warmer 925 millibar temperatures move into
the area and steepen the lower level lapse rates. Forecast soundings
imply an inverted-V orientation and forecast DCAPE (downdraft CAPE)
values indicating the potential for gusty winds with any of the
storms. Again something to keep an eye on. High temperatures on
Thursday will be in the 70s to lower 80s. Upper trough moves east of
the area on Friday and we will see a return to drier weather and
temperatures at or below seasonal normals.
.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Through 18Z Monday...VFR through the period. Cold front is
clearing through the area as of 1730Z with winds shifting to
west/northwesterly from 8-12 kts and occnl gusts to near 20 kts.
Cigs generally SCT to occnly BKN in the 050-090 AGL range
through 00Z, then trending mainly SKC overnight as winds trend
light. Other than a brief sprinkle at northern terminals through
20Z or so, no pcpn is expected. After 12Z SKC in the morning
trends SCT/BKN from 050-080 AGL by 18Z at most terminals with
approach of another weak front. Little pcpn expected with this
feature so have kept conditions dry at this point as light
northerly winds average 5-8 kts from 340-020.
Monday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
Tuesday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA.
Wednesday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Likely SHRA,
Wednesday Night: MVFR. Chance SHRA, Chance TSRA.
Thursday: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. Likely SHRA,
Thursday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance
SHRA, Slight chance TSRA.
Friday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Slight chance SHRA.