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Current conditions from King Hill
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  Sunday January 26, 2020

 

NWS Area Forecast Discussion


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000
FXUS61 KBTV 252109
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
409 PM EST Sat Jan 25 2020

.SYNOPSIS...
A slow-moving low pressure system will bring periods of
moderate rain to the North Country this evening into the
overnight hours, along with localized pockets of freezing rain
and sleet across central and eastern Vermont and far northern
New York. Locally gusty winds upwards of 40 mph will also be
possible through this evening along the western slopes of the
Green Mountains. As winds turn westerly on Sunday into Sunday
night, there will be potential for snow showers across the
higher terrain, with several inches likely across the
Adirondacks and northern Green Mountains. Quiet weather returns
by mid-week with seasonable late January conditions anticipated.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 334 PM EST Saturday...Mid-level closed low remains
centered over lower Michigan this afternoon, with well-organized
warm conveyor belt extending from south of Long Island nnwwd
into e-central and northern NY. This conveyor belt is immediate
east of an occulded front, and system has a negative tilt per
GOES-16 IR imagery. Seeing very strong sely 850mb winds
associated with a low-level jet, which is expected to increase
to 60-70kt across s-central/central VT by 00Z this evening. Have
seen surface gusts as high as 41kt at Mendon and 34kt at KRUT
at 1816Z. As warm conveyors shifts ewd and precipitation
develops eastward across VT through early evening, should see
wind gusts settle back into the 25-30kt range along the western
slopes of the Green Mountains as PBL stabilizes.

Localized areas of mixed wintry precipitation remain a concern
this evening into tonight. The 2-m temperatures remain right at
32F across St. Lawrence and portions of northern Franklin NY
counties, with intermittent periods of FZRA noted in area
observations. May also see periods of sleet, and then a trend
toward intermittent snow/sleet after midnight as winds shift
westerly and vertical temperature profiles cool during the pre-
dawn hours. Continued with the idea of up to 0.1" ice
accumulation across the St. Lawrence Valley, and the Winter
Weather Advisory continues there through 4am Sunday. Sfc
temperatures are quite marginal this evening 32-34F, so travel
concerns should be limited to untreated surfaces.

Same situation across central/eastern VT, where the Winter
Weather Advisory continues through 4AM Sunday. Most locations in
VT are already above freezing, but seeing a few obs right at
32F on the immediate eastern slopes of the Greens around Bethel
and Brookfield and adjacent points. Again, any icy travel
concerns will be limited and confined to untreated surfaces, but
temperatures remain close enough to freezing to warrant
continuing the Winter Weather Advisory. We`ll continue to
monitor trends there. Meanwhile, in the Champlain Valley,
downslope sely winds and low-level WAA will keep temps in the
mid-upper 30s. A few ice pellets may mix in at times, but
looking at no accumulation and mostly a rain event.

Precipitation will be moderate at times this evening as best PW
axis translates ewd across the North Country. In terms of
StormTotalRainfall amts, mostly occurring through 09Z tonight,
looking at 0.4 to 0.6" in most locations, but locally up to 0.9"
across the Green Mtns and the higher peaks of the Adirondacks.

Mid-level dry slot moves across late tonight through Sunday
morning. Should see low overcast lingering with passage of the
occlusion, but precipitation will be limited to isolated light
snow showers. However, next shortwave trough in NWLY flow and
deeper saturation bringing better chances for snow showers
Sunday afternoon through Sunday night. This will be especially
true across the northern Adirondacks and northern Green Mtns
with increased WNWLY upslope flow conditions. We have increased
PoPs to 70-90% Sunday night across the higher terrain. It
appears that 2-4" of snowfall will be possible late Sunday
afternooon through Sunday night, and locally around 5" for Jay
Peak and the western slopes of the Adirondacks. Highs on Sunday
generally in the low-mid 30s, with lows Sunday night in the
upper 20s to lower 30s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 334 PM EST Saturday...Upslope snow showers are expected to
continue across the western slopes of the Green and Adirondacks on
Monday with a series of low amplitude shortwaves traversing the
northwesterly flow aloft. Moisture will gradually wane throughout
the day on Monday and especially on Tuesday as drier air begins to
work south into the North Country. The tricky part to the forecast
will be for the potential of some blocked flow in the Champlain
Valley on Monday which may allow some of the snow showers to back
into western Addison and western Chittenden but the main focus will
continue to be on the western slopes. Our snow ratios on Monday will
not be on the fluffy side as the cold air advection is weak 850 mb
temps only dropping to about -10 degrees C by Tuesday morning. The
ratios will trend from 12:1 Monday morning to about 18:1 by Tuesday
morning which should allow for an additional 2-4 inches of snow
along the western slopes with little to none in the deeper valleys.
Temperatures on Monday will also be on the warm side with many
locations at or above freezing expect for elevations above 2000 ft
which will also inhibit snow accumulations in the deeper valleys.
Tuesday will be much cooler as a strong push of cooler air dives
south with highs climbing into the mid to upper 20s.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 334 PM EST Saturday...Strong surface high pressure will build
south across the North Country on Wednesday and bring clearing skies
and light and variable winds. This high pressure system will remain
entrenched across the region through the first half of Saturday and
will help usher in the return of near normal high temperatures.
Lows, on the other hand, will likely be below normal as we have some
nice radiational cooling nights ahead underneath the 1025+ mb high.
Lows will be the coldest Wednesday night as temps drop to the single
digits above and below zero and will slowly moderate as we head
toward the end of the work week. The next chance of precipitation
doesn`t occur until the upcoming weekend where there is a lot of
uncertainty with the track of a low tracking up the east coast.
There is the potential for a good storm system but also the
potential this low tracks well off to our east with no impacts. Stay
tuned in the coming days for updates regarding this system.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Through 18Z Sunday...Occulded low will slowly approach from the
Great Lakes region this afternoon and evening, yielding deteriorating
aviation weather conditions. Axis of moderate intensity precipitation
in advance of the occulded front will move newd into all the
TAF locations, beginning 18-19Z at SLK/MSS and 19-21Z elsewhere.
In terms of precipitation type, there will be periods of
freezing rain at both MSS and MPV where 2-m temperatures are the
closest to freezing. Elsewhere, looking at plain rain with temps
in the mid 30s to near 40 at times. All sites will also see a
period of moderate precipitation 23-03Z with strongest portions
of the frontal precipitation band, along with LLWS as sely 850mb
jet strengthens to 60-70kt. Core of strongest winds remains
aloft. That said, KRUT will see occasional mixing to the surface
with sely winds 15-20kt and gusts to 30kt through 22Z this
aftn. Ceilings and vsby will be highly variable. Have already
seen MVFR ceilings develop with sely upslope flow at MPV, and
HIR TRRN OBSCD generally throughout the period expected.
Elsewhere, will generally see ceilings slowly fall this
afternoon with VFR to MVFR conditions. Once the occulded front
swings through around 03-05Z, then most sites will trend IFR
with intermittent periods of very light rain (and rain/snow mix
at MSS/SLK). Not much change expected into Sunday AM, with a
moist SW low-level flow regime in place. Should see most sites
holding onto 2-3kft ceilings through 18Z Sunday, along with SW
winds at 5-10kts and periods of 4-5SM BR and intermittent very
light rain or snow.

Outlook...

Sunday Night: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Chance SHSN.
Monday: Mainly MVFR, with local VFR possible. Chance SHSN, Chance
SHRA.
Monday Night: Mainly MVFR, with local VFR possible. Slight chance
SHSN.
Tuesday: Mainly MVFR, with local VFR possible. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday Night: VFR/MVFR conditions possible. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Thursday: VFR. NO SIG WX.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...Winter Weather Advisory until 4 AM EST Sunday for VTZ003-004-
     006>008-010-012-018-019.
NY...Winter Weather Advisory until 4 AM EST Sunday for NYZ026-027-
     030-031-034.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Banacos
NEAR TERM...Banacos
SHORT TERM...Clay
LONG TERM...Clay
AVIATION...Banacos


 
 
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