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Current conditions from King Hill
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  Wednesday November 14, 2018

 

NWS Area Forecast Discussion


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000
FXUS61 KBTV 140852
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
352 AM EST Wed Nov 14 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will build into the region today with clearing skies
and slowly decreasing winds. Temperatures will be on the chilly side
with highs mainly in the teens to mid 20s. Tonight will feature
clear skies and light winds, which combined with some snow pack in
the higher terrain will result in lows ranging from near zero to the
mid teens near the warmer Lake Champlain water. A dry day is
expected on Thursday, before another coastal system impacts our
region Thursday night into Friday. A widespread plowable type
snowfall is possible with temperatures warming back into the 20s and
30s.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 349 AM EST Wednesday...Coldest airmass of the season is currently
across the North Country as 00z Maniwaki indicated 850mb temp
of -19c, which is very impressive for this time of year. Water
vapor continues to show a complex upper level pattern across the
conus with mid/upper trof over the ne conus, while energy and
moisture increases over the se conus, ahead of our next system
Thurs Night into Friday. For the near term, our weather will be
influenced by building 1036mb high pres from central Great
Lakes. The pres difference btwn building high pres and departing
low pres will continue to produce brisk northwest winds 15 to
30 mph across our fa today, which will decrease by mid to late
aftn. These upslope winds, combined with weak 5h vort have
produced some light snow shower activity early this morning,
which will dry up by 15z. Maybe a dusting in the dacks/mountains
of Vt.

Near record lows anticipated tonight with mainly clear skies away
from Lake Champlain as high pres builds directly overhead. This
combined with light trrn driven winds and some fresh snow pack,
expect lows from -5f coldest valleys in the nek/slk to lower/mid
teens cpv. See climate section below for records. METSLK has -12f
which is impressive, but thinking closer to the warmer MAV/ECE
values. Soundings show extreme instability associated with lake temp
near 9c, while 850mb temp is -15c to -18c, this instability,
combined with lighter cloud layer winds should allow greater parcel
time over the water to produce a few lake effect clouds downstream
of Lake Champlain this aftn/evening. Flow becomes light tonight, so
more of a tea kettle effect anticipated as warm air rises, it cools
by expansion, and should be enough to produce some localized clouds
near the Lake.

Thursday after a chilly start mid/upper level moisture begins to
overspread the region aft 18z. Expect clouds to lower and thicken
during the afternoon hours with temps mainly in the mid 20s to mid
30s. Light winds become south/southeast 5 to 15 mph.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
As of 323 PM EST Tuesday...On Thursday, high pressure will move
eastward and away from our area. Despite increasing clouds, our
forecast area will remain dry with temperatures cooler than
normal by about 15 degrees. Next system will be approaching from
the southwest on Thursday night, spreading clouds and light
snow from south to north across our area after 00z. A low
pressure system will track from the Ohio river valley off the
delmarva peninsula on Thursday, then along the New York and New
England coasts on Thursday night through Friday. It will be
centered very close to Cape Cod by 18z Friday. Friday night it
will lift even further off to the northeast and away from the
region. During this time period, we will have light snow with
some light rain mixing in in the valleys for Thursday night and
Friday. The best chance for light snow will be from about 10 pm
Thu to 2 pm Fri. As the low lifts further northeastward and away
from our area, light snow showers will become more
orographically enhanced with the flow becoming northwesterly,
but will be ending as we lose deeper moisture. We will have
highs in the 30s and lows in the 30s from Thursday through
Friday night. First thoughts about amount of precipitation is
between three and seven tenths of an inch of liquid
precipitation. Initial thoughts at snowfall totals is 3-7 inches
of snow with the highest amounts across our southern Vermont
zones and along the spine of the Greens. There is still lots of
uncertainty this far out, especially with track of the low. Both
GFS and ECMWF currently have the low track pretty tight in
along the New England coast. If the low tracks closer to our
area, we may have to mention mixed precipitation as well. Right
now feel that it will be mostly snow with a bit of a mix of
rain.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 309 PM EST Tuesday...The active weather pattern we have
been in will continue for the remainder of the extended period
as several impulses travel through fast west-east flow aloft.
Clouds and scattered showers will linger throughout the day
Saturday despite weak upper-level height rises. Anticipate these
showers to stay mainly confined to the higher terrain.
Temperatures should warm towards more seasonable values with
highs in the upper 30s to around 40 in the valleys and low to
mid 30s across the higher terrain.

Model consensus is poor on the Sunday system with GFS more
progressive and wet compared to the ECMWF solution. At this time
have just gone with a chance of precipitation...with the
greatest likelihood for northern New York where they could see
some lake enhancement. Quiet but cloudy weather settles briefly
on Monday before a weak clipper system approaches for Tuesday.
ECMWF/GFS agreement is much better on this system so have
increased chances for precipitation. At this time, guidance
suggests that temperatures should stay cold enough Sunday
through the remainder of the extended to be supportive of all
snow across the area. No real block busters expected during this
period but certainly accumulating snowfall is possible,
especially across the high terrain.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Through 06Z Thursday...IR sat shows lingering clouds, especially
across the higher trrn. Expect clouds with intervals of mvfr
cigs/vis to prevail at slk thru early Weds morning. Would not be
surprised if a period of ifr occurs with vis around 2sm
associated with upstream snow shower activity. Otherwise, vfr
conditions prevail at pbg/mpv/btv/mss with some mvfr cigs at
rut. As cold air deepens today and flow becomes northwest,
expect additional clouds to develop at btv with mvfr cigs
possible. Northwest winds 10 to 15 knots with localized gusts 20
to 25 knots will occur btwn 12z-20z today, before quickly
weakening toward sunset. 1036mb high pres will result in mainly
clear skies overnight with light trrn driven winds.

Outlook...

Thursday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Thursday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR and IFR possible.
Definite SN.
Friday: MVFR and IFR. Definite SN.
Friday Night: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Chance SHSN.
Saturday: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. Chance SHRA,
Chance SHSN.
Saturday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance
SHSN.
Sunday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SN.

&&

.MARINE...
A Lake Wind Advisory continues today for west/northwest winds 15
to 25 knots with localized gusts up to 30 knots. These winds
will decrease to 10 to 20 knots toward sunset. Waves generally 1
to 3 feet, except some higher swells in the open water.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Below are the record low min temperatures for November 15th:

Burlington, VT      9 (1933)
Montpelier, VT      8 (1996)
St. Johnsbury, VT  16 (2003)
Massena, NY        12 (1967)
Plattsburgh, NY    13 (1967)
Saranac Lake, NY  -12 (1993)

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Taber
NEAR TERM...Taber
SHORT TERM...Neiles
LONG TERM...LaRocca
AVIATION...Taber
MARINE...
CLIMATE...RSD


 
 
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