228
FXUS61 KBTV 301111
AFDBTV
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
711 AM EDT Thu Oct 30 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
Windy and rainy conditions are expected over the next couple of days
as strengthening low pressure moves across the Northeast and
southern New England. Rain will develop over northern New York this
morning and then spread into most of Vermont by sunset. A widespread
rainfall is expected across the entire area by Friday night with
amounts generally in the 1 to 2 inch range, with more than 2 inches
expected in the St Lawrence Valley. Abundant cloud cover along with
the precipitation will keep temperatures in the mid 40s to lower 50s
on both today and Friday, with some mountain snow showers likely
Friday night into Saturday. Drier and cooler weather returns late
Saturday into Sunday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 235 AM EDT Thursday...Vertically-stacked low pressure currently
over central KY/TN will gradually lift northeastward today and
Friday, gradually deepening as it does so. We`re already seeing
increasing cloud cover over southern sections of our forecast area
early this morning as south/southeast flow ahead of the system
advects in deeper moisture. Rain can be seen moving into southern NY
at this hour, and this will push north and east into northern NY
this morning. Given the dry air that is in place, it may take a
little bit for the rain to reach the ground, but expect rain to be
falling by mid/late morning over much of NY; it will then eventually
spread eastward into VT by late this afternoon. Low-level southeast
flow will strengthen as a 60kt jet lifts northward; the question
continues to be how much of this jet will be able to mix down and
how strong downsloping winds will become. The peak of the jet moves
through this evening into the overnight, roughly 6 pm Thu to about 3
am Fri. The NAM3 and ARW continue to be the most aggressive in
developing gusts of 45-55+ mph along the ridgeline and the favored
downslope regions of the western slopes of the central and southern
Greens. However, these models also have the least amount of areal
coverage of rain this evening and overnight. Meanwhile, the HRRR and
FV3 have more modest gusts, likely due to more extensive rain during
the peak of the jet, which would temper mixing potential. Still,
HREF mean wind gusts are somewhat concerning, with 45-55kt indicated
on the immediate western slopes downwind of the spine of the Greens.
Much will depend on precipitation coverage and exactly where the
core of the jet lies in relation to the top of the inversion layer.
Given the continued uncertainty, have increased forecast wind gusts
to 35-45 mph, just below Wind Advisory criteria, but have held off
on any headlines at this point. Still, locally higher gusts are
possible, and we wouldn`t be surprised to see some isolated power
outages due to downed trees or branches, especially in those areas
where trees still retain most of their leaves.
Rainwise, expect precipitation to be mostly focused in northern NY
through early afternoon, then a swath is progged to lift up through
VT late this afternoon into the overnight (with exact areal coverage
still in question, as mentioned above). Even if the rain trends
toward the more extensive model solutions, expect there will be
shadowing on the western sides of the higher elevations due to
downsloping winds, while the eastern slopes will see heavier
rainfall amounts. Rainfall should range from around a third of an
inch in the shadowed areas in the Northeast Kingdom to 1.5 inch or
more in the St Lawrence Valley; much of the remainder of the region
should get between 0.50 and 1.0 inch. Other than perhaps a few hours
early this morning, snow levels will be high enough to preclude any
snow, even at summit levels.
Main area of rain lifts north of the international border Friday
morning, and we may see a bit of a break in the precipitation as low
pressure moves directly overhead and some drier air briefly works
into the region. However, showers will start to fill back in from
west to east during the late afternoon and evening hours as the low
center moves into NH/ME, turning flow to the west/northwest.
Precipitation should gradually become focused along the western
slopes of the Adirondacks and Greens, though with Froude numbers
generally around 0.5 or less, showery conditions will be likely
further upwind into the eastern Champlain and St Lawrence Valleys.
The CT River Valley has the best chance of being mostly dry for the
evening time. Regardless, it`s going to be a blustery and raw
Halloween evening, as winds are expected to gust to around 30 mph
and temperatures only topping out in the upper 40s to mid 50s.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 235 AM EDT Thursday...Low pressure will continue to pull away
well to our east Friday night and Saturday, keeping us under brisk
northwest flow. Precipitation will spread back into the region
Friday night, this time as widespread showers, particularly along
the northern and western slopes of the Adirondacks and Greens. Snow
levels will fall through this period, so anticipate the higher
elevations will change over to snow, mainly above 1500 ft. Some
minor snow accumulation will be possible. Showers will gradually
wane during the day Saturday, with dry weather resuming by late
afternoon, of course lingering longest over the northern mountains.
West to northwest winds will remain breezy through this period, with
gusts up to 35 mph expected. Temperatures will be chilly on
Saturday, with highs only topping out in the 40s areawide.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 235 AM EDT Thursday...Overall looking at a relatively quiet
period of weather as surface high pressure will largely dominate.
Some lingering valley rain and mountain snow showers are possible
Saturday night in the wake of the aforementioned exiting system, but
dry conditions develop for the latter half of the weekend and into
next week with seasonably cool temps in the 40s on Sunday, warming
to near normal in the low/mid 50s for Monday. A weak cold front will
brief a brief period of scattered to numerous rain/snow showers late
Monday through Tuesday, followed by another area of high pressure on
Wednesday.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Through 12Z Friday...Deteriorating conditions are expected
through the period with low ceilings and gusty to strong wind
gusts the primary threats. An MVFR marine layer raced in from
the southeast overnight impacting KRUT and KMPV, and this layer
will remain over these terminals through the period. Elsewhere,
VFR ceilings will gradually trend to MVFR through the afternoon
and eventually to IFR at KMSS, KSLK, and KMPV tonight.
Current radar shows rain moving into the region across northern
New York this morning and will eventually shift into Vermont
this afternoon and persist through tonight. Visibility should
largely remain VFR, but some periods of MVFR are possible.
Finally, gusty to locally strong winds and LLWS are expected to
develop this afternoon and persist through tonight. The
strongest gusts will be at KRUT up to 35kts from the southeast,
with up to 30kts at KSLK also from the southeast, and 25kts at
KMSS from the northeast.
Outlook...
Friday: Mainly MVFR, with areas IFR possible. Definite SHRA,
Likely RA.
Friday Night: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Windy with
gusts to 30 kt. Definite SHRA.
Saturday: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. Chance SHRA.
Saturday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance
SHSN, Slight chance SHRA.
Sunday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. NO SIG WX.
Sunday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA.
Monday: VFR. Chance SHRA.
&&
.EQUIPMENT...
The TYX radar is down until further notice after a hardware
failure occurred. Replacement parts have been ordered and will
be installed. There is no ETA on its return to service.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Hastings
NEAR TERM...Hastings
SHORT TERM...Hastings
LONG TERM...Lahiff
AVIATION...Lahiff
EQUIPMENT...BTV
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