405
FXUS61 KBTV 201853
AFDBTV
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
253 PM EDT Mon Oct 20 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
Areas of rain showers will continue to impact the region tonight
with localized heavy downpours possible. A period of gusty westerly
downslope winds are expected over the eastern Adirondacks this
evening. Rain showers will taper off on Tuesday, before additional
showers redevelop by Tuesday night into Wednesday. A cooler and
unsettled weather pattern will prevail for most of the week
ahead.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 250 PM EDT Monday...Rainfall amounts have varied greatly today
acrs our cwa from amounts near 0.10" to localized values over 1.20"
near the Western Slopes. Crnt radar shows bands of light to moderate
rain continue to pivot from southeast to northwest acrs our cwa, as
deep negatively tilted trof conts to evolve. RAP13 analysis places
closed 7h/5h circulation near KALB with deep moist conveyor belt of
sub-tropical moisture advecting into our cwa. As system conts to
mature over the next 1 to 3 hours, expect a backside
deformation/commahead of precip to develop over central NY and
slowly move into our cwa overnight. Guidance still indicates pockets
of CAPE btwn 250-400 J/kg thru this evening, which could result in a
few embedded rumbles of thunder. This idea is confirmed by latest
lightning data showing a few strikes on back edge of deeper moisture
ahead of potent s/w energy. Any convective elements wl be capable of
localized heavy downpours, given pws btwn 1.0 and 1.25". As backside
deformation develops with north/northwest upslope flow expect areal
coverage of precip to redevelop overnight, especially northern
Dacks/CPV and north-central mtns of VT. Additional qpf wl be 0.25 to
0.75" overnight with localized amounts of 0.75" to 1.25" likely in
favorable trrn focused areas. Feel NBM is way too quick in lifting
precip/moisture out of our cwa on Tues morning, given closed
cyclonic system, so I have carried likely/cat pops thru 12z and
slowly taper off by 18z Tues. Additional qpf can be expected thru
15z along the western slopes/northern dacks and eastern CPV on Tues
morning. Lows mainly in the 40s tonight warm back into the 50s to
lower 60s on Tues. Also, a period of gusty westerly winds of 30 to
45 mph are likely this evening acrs the eastern downslope areas of
the dacks, associated with 925mb winds of 35 to 45 knots.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 250 PM EDT Monday...Guidance in good agreement with next closed
mid/upper lvl cyclonic circulation developing over the central Great
Lakes with multiple embedded s/w`s and boundaries impacts our cwa
thru Weds night. This wl result in an unsettled wx pattern for
midweek with multiple rounds of showers likely, but qpf wl be
lighter given pws dropping into the 0.50 to 0.75". In addition,
qpf/pops wl become more trrn focused for midweek given wind speed
and direction and position of closed system. Initially our cwa wl be
on the warmer side of the low, but eventually progged 850mb temps
drop below 0C, supporting some potential for very high summit snow
by 12z Thurs. The freezing levels are near 4000 ft, so no impacts
and just a very minor slushy accumulation possible. Progged 850mb
temps hovering either side of 0C is not great for individuals
looking for snow accumulations in mid/late Oct. Otherwise, temps are
mostly in the mid 50s to lower 60s on Weds and cool into the mid 30s
to mid 40s on Weds night.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 250 PM EDT Monday...A large scale gyre will continue to
cyclonically rotate just south of James Bay in Canada with multiple
shortwaves and chances for precipitation in the extended. Cyclonic
flow will usher in mainly cloudy skies through the remainder of the
week with relatively seasonable temperatures. Highs will be in the
upper 40s to low 50s with overnight lows upper 20s to 30s.
System wise, cyclonic flow will lead to southwesterly flow Thursday
which means we will be talking lake effect showers and clouds. Lake
Ontario temperatures are about 15C with 925mb temperatures around 3-
4C. This temperature difference with the southwest flow along the
lake fetch will be favorable for lake effect showers and clouds that
should make it into portions of southern St. Lawrence County and
southern Franklin County in New York. The lake effect machine will
remain on through at least Saturday with prevailing southwesterly
flow. Weak shortwaves both Friday afternoon and Saturday afternoon
will bring shower chances to the region, with better chances in
higher terrain of the Adirondacks and northern Greens. 925mb
temperatures will be around freezing so wet snow atop the mountain
summits remains likely through the end of the week. While we will
see round of precipitation chances, the actual amounts will be both
spotty and low due to somewhat drier air left behind by the
Wednesday system. The upper level gyre will gradually depart to the
northeast this weekend with some lingering shortwaves trailing, but
signals of drier weather appear possible by the late weekend with
more zonal flow.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Through 18Z Tuesday...Rain is lifting northwards into Vermont
and northern New York. There`s a mix of MVFR and VFR conditions,
mainly east of the Greens, but also beginning to push east of
the St. Lawrence River. Additionally, there`s lingering LLWS
across Vermont as 40 to 50 knot winds at 2000 ft agl lift
northwards ahead of the incoming upper low. Rain showers will
increase over the area, focusing across Vermont from about 14z
to 21z, and greatest over northern New York from 22z to 04z.
Rain could be heavy at times and reduce visibility to 2-5SM at
times. Additionally, thunder is possible, but not explicitly
mentioned since the odds are low. As low pressure lifts north,
lingering rain over the northern tier is expected with ceilings
falling to 600-2000 ft agl as winds trend southwest to west-
northwest at 4 to 10 knots. Some low-level wind shear is
possible on the backside of the low over KMSS and KSLK beyond
00z as west-northwest winds at 2000 ft increase to 35 to 40
knots. Rain should be lifting north of the international border
by 12z Tuesday.
Outlook...
Tuesday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight chance
SHRA.
Tuesday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA.
Wednesday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Definite SHRA.
Wednesday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance
SHRA.
Thursday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance SHRA.
Thursday Night: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Chance
SHRA.
Friday: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. Chance SHRA.
&&
.EQUIPMENT...
The TYX radar is down until further notice after a hardware
failure occurred. Replacement parts have been ordered and will
be installed.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Taber
NEAR TERM...Taber
SHORT TERM...Taber
LONG TERM...Danzig
AVIATION...Danzig
EQUIPMENT...BTV
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