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Current conditions from King Hill
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  Friday February 22, 2019

 

NWS Area Forecast Discussion


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FXUS61 KBTV 211419
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Burlington VT
919 AM EST Thu Feb 21 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
A warm front lifting through the region this morning will bring an
end to areas of light snow and drizzle with increasing southerly
winds through the day warming temperatures into the mid to upper
30s. A weak cold front moves across the area tonight with a few
mountain snow showers possible, followed by high pressure for Friday
and Saturday. A more potent low pressure system will bring a wintry
mix Saturday night, followed by warming temps and rain for Sunday,
and widespread snow showers Sunday night into Monday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 917 AM EST Thursday...Snowfall has been quick to taper off
with a pronounced dry slot seen clearly by water vapor imagery
this morning. That being said, a few upslope snow showers
continue across the western slopes of the Adirondacks and
northern Green Mountains near Jay Peak but due to the dry DGZ,
snowfall amounts continue to be pretty minor. Expect slowly
improving conditions through the day with maybe a few peaks of
sun before sunset. Highs are still on track to be in the upper
30s to mid 40s.

Previous Discussion...As surface low pressure over the Great
Lakes continues to track northeast into southern Quebec this
morning we`ll continue to see a general decrease in areal
coverage of precipitation though areas of drizzle and/or
freezing drizzle are possible through mid-morning. Have
cancelled the winter weather advisory for eastern Vermont based
on radar trends, but also after observing area webcams which
have shown less snow has fallen overnight than previously
forecast. Roads will have a light snow cover and probably be
slick for the morning commute, but hey, that`s winter in the
North Country. Moving through the day as the area moves more
firmly into the warm sector south/southwesterly winds will be
increasing with gusts in the 15- 25mph range likely along with
surface temps rising into the mid/upper 30s.

For tonight, a trailing cold front will track through the region and
while low level moisture will remain abundant the overall forcing is
rather weak so think any precip will be confined to the higher
terrain with perhaps a dusting to an inch of snow accumulation
possible. Skies should remain fairly cloudy as a mid-level
subsidence inversion sets up so have gone a few degrees above
guidance with lows mainly in the low/mid 20s. On Friday, incoming
high pressure will provide drying conditions with skies gradually
scouring out and some sunshine likely by the late afternoon. Highs
will be near normal in the upper 20s to mid 30s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 410 AM EST Thursday...A large area of high pressure will exist
over the entire Northeast Friday night into Saturday. This will
allow for dry weather along with some sunshine. Since the high is
building in from the west low temperatures Friday night will
generally be in the teens. Highs on Saturday will be in the 30s
which should make for a rather nice day.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 410 AM EST Thursday...Active weather is expected Saturday night
through Monday. First we will see another mixed precipitation event
late Saturday night into Sunday morning as a strong low pressure
system remains to our northwest. A warm front with its associated
warm air advection moves from southwest to northeast across our area
after midnight Saturday night with warmest air aloft working its way
up into northern New York during the early morning hours on Sunday.
This area will have the best chance for seeing a wintry mix along
with the potential for some light ice accumulations. Across Vermont
the bulk of the precipitation during the early morning hours on
Sunday will be snow with some sleet and eventually rain mixing in.
Any snow accumulations at this time early Sunday morning look to be
up to an inch of snow. Sunday should see all areas transition over
to rain as highs reach the upper 30s to upper 40s. The main issue on
Sunday...especially late in the day and Sunday night will be deeper
mixing that develops and allows stronger flow aloft to mix down and
create rather gusty conditions. Looking at much of the area
experiencing wind gusts in the 35 to 45 mph range and could see the
Saint Lawrence Valley and the highest elevations of the northern
Adirondacks and Green Mountains getting even stronger wind gusts.
Definitely a situation to keep an eye on. The gusty winds will
actually continue right into Monday as flow becomes more west to
northwest. This will help decrease the areal coverage of
precipitation and see it transition from rain back over to snow as
it becomes more tied to the higher terrain given the flow pattern.
With the developing west to northwest flow aloft we will return to
drier conditions Tuesday and Wednesday along with below normal
temperatures.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Through 12Z Friday...Mix of flight conditions from VFR to IFR
will continue across the area for the next few hours before
conditions slowly begin improve with VFR expected at all sites
by 21Z except KMSS/KSLK where MVFR cigs will persist. Winds
mainly south/southwest will becoming increasingly gusty between
18-25kts through the day, then abate below 10kts after
midnight.


Outlook...

Friday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Friday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Saturday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Saturday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Definite
PL, Chance SN, Definite FZRA.
Sunday: Mainly MVFR, with local VFR possible. Windy with gusts to
30 kt. Definite RA, Definite SHRA, Definite FZRA.
Sunday Night: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. Strong winds with
gusts to 40 kt. Likely SHSN, Likely SHRA.
Monday: VFR. Strong winds with gusts to 40 kt. Chance SHSN.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Lahiff
NEAR TERM...Clay/Lahiff
SHORT TERM...Evenson
LONG TERM...Evenson
AVIATION...Lahiff



 
 
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