FXUS61 KBTV 260850
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
450 AM EDT Mon Jun 26 2017
We will have a dry start to the day today...but scattered
showers and isolated thunderstorms are expected this afternoon
and evening. An even greater likelihood of showers and
thunderstorms is expected on Tuesday. Temperatures will be
several degrees below normal both today and Tuesday. The threat
of showers will continue into Wednesday...but then a change will
take place to a warming trend starting Thursday and continuing
through the weekend. However...this pattern will also be
conducive to more widespread showers and thunderstorms across
the entire area during this period.
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 450 AM EDT Monday...Noticeable differences standout when
comparing today to yesterday with respect to the convective
potential. Today we are lacking the dynamic support as the
shortwave trough that enhanced convection yesterday is moving
northeast of the region this morning. No well defined dynamic
support is expected across the area today. Cooler temperatures
today will not allow for as much instability that developed
yesterday and enhanced convection. Enough instability will
develop to support convection...mainly scattered showers with
only isolated thunderstorms. Deep layer shear has shifted just a
bit to our south today versus being right over our area today.
As a result...only looking at isolated to scattered showers
today along with a few thunderstorms. Synoptic scale features
and thermodynamic profiles do not support any storms becoming
organized today. Highs today will only be in the mid 60s to
Tonight...the showers and isolated storms lift northeast and
most of the activity should be done by midnight. Lows will
generally be in the upper 40s to upper 50s.
Tuesday...Well defined shortwave trough moves out of the eastern
Great Lakes and provide sufficient dynamic support for the
development of showers and some thunderstorms. Colder air aloft
will move into the region and despite highs only in the mid 60s
to lower 70s...much like today... destabilization will occur and
sufficient instability should develop for convection as 850-500
millibar lapse rates become dry adiabatic. These two elements
should be enough to create more widespread showers than today
and the idea of many areas having likely precipitation chances
looks real good. If any storms do get organized on Tuesday...could
see some small hail with them as wet bulb zero values will be
on the lower side...much like on Sunday.
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 450 AM EDT Monday...Overall convective activity should
begin to wane Tuesday evening with the loss of surface
instability but expect a few showers and thunderstorms to linger
through the night as the driving mid/upper level shortwave
trough passes through the region. It`s a fairly cold trough for
late June so behind the feature temps will run about 5 degrees
below normal across the board with lows in the 50s across the
St. Lawrence and Champlain Valleys to mid/upper 40s elsewhere.
Wednesday features a drier northwest flow behind the exiting upper
trough with a mix of clouds/sunshine and temps seasonal in the
low/mid 70s. Could see some terrain driven showers and perhaps a few
thunderstorms with weak surface instability developing in the
afternoon, especially across northern areas, but with the lack of
any strong forcing aloft areal coverage should be low.
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 450 AM EDT Monday...Another active period of weather is
expected for the end of the work week and through the weekend
with the highlights being the potential for widespread and
possibly heavy rain Thursday and again Saturday. Aforementioned
upper trough exits the region Wednesday night with possibly the
last dry night of the week before a fast westerly flow develops
aloft for Thursday through Friday. Shortwave energy moving
through the flow aloft combined with a warm front extended west
to east from low pressure moving through the Great Lakes will
provide the setup for widespread rain to develop along the
boundary during the day Thursday. Instability is rather weak,
and PWATs aren`t super high (1-1.5") so the heavy rain threat
shouldn`t be widespread, but this event may prove to be the pre
for potential hydro problems on the weekend. As the warm front
shifts over the region Thursday/Thursday night it stalls with
additional heat and moisture streaming into the region Friday
night into Saturday on increasing southwesterly flow aloft with
blocking high pressure anchored off Bermuda. While this is
several days away, indications are for a return of 70 dewpoints
and a plume of PWAT`s in excess of 2" presenting a heavy rain
threat Saturday and Saturday night. Depending on what QPF falls
through the week and especially on Thursday, flash flooding
could be possible this weekend. Stay tuned.
.AVIATION /09Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Through 06Z Tuesday...Showers have come to an end across the
area early this morning and not looking for any additional
showers until after 18z. Areal coverage of the showers will be
isolated to scattered between 18z and 04z with just a low chance
for thunder. Have indicated vicinity showers at all sites during
this time period. Ceilings will generally be VFR through the
period and visibilities for that matter too. The only exception
to this will be at KMSS where abundant rainfall from yesterday
will enhance the potential for low clouds and fog and there may
be a period of IFR to LIFR conditions between 09z and 12z. Winds
will generally be under 10 knots through the period and will
generally be from the west and southwest.
Tuesday: VFR. Chance SHRA...Slight Chance TSRA.
Tuesday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA.
Wednesday: VFR. Chance SHRA...Slight Chance TSRA.
Wednesday Night: VFR. Slight Chance SHRA.
Thursday: VFR. Likely SHRA.
Thursday Night: VFR/MVFR. Likely SHRA...Slight Chance TSRA.
Friday: VFR. Chance SHRA...Slight Chance TSRA.