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  Sunday October 22, 2017

 

NWS Area Forecast Discussion


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189
FXUS61 KBTV 220652
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
252 AM EDT Sun Oct 22 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Expect a continuation of above normal temperatures and dry
weather today and Monday as high pressure remains over the area.
Eventually a large upper level trough of low pressure will start
to approach the area Monday night and then move across the North
Country Tuesday into Wednesday. As a result...clouds and
precipitation chances will be increasing with fairly widespread
rain expected Tuesday and Tuesday night.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 252 AM EDT Sunday...Expecting only high level clouds
across the area today which should result in mostly sunny skies.
Low level temperatures...925/850 mb... will be a little warmer
than yesterday and thus looking at highs in the upper 60s to mid
70s...which is 10 to 20 degrees above normal for this time of
year.

Looking at another night tonight of wide ranging temperatures
with lows anywhere from the upper 30s in the mountains to mid
50s in the larger valleys...and 40s everywhere else. Should
start to see a little better chance for fog over eastern
Vermont.

On Monday...mid and high level moisture will start to be a
little thicker and this should keep highs in the mid 60s to
lower 70s...which is still well above normal. Not looking for
any precipitation during the day...but lower level moisture
should start working into parts of eastern Vermont as the day
progresses.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT/...
As of 430 PM EDT Saturday...Upper level ridge remains over the
region for one more day on Monday. Will just see some high
clouds over the area for Monday with dry weather continuing.
Temperatures will once again reach the upper 60s to lower 70s.
Monday night a cold front will approach the area as a low lifts
through the Great Lakes region. Rain should hold off till early
Tuesday morning, with bulk of rain moving in after 12z.
Temperatures will be warm Monday night with clouds and
precipitation moving into the area, generally mid 50s to lower
60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 445 PM EDT Saturday...Tuesday and Wednesday will be wet
and windy, followed by a brief cool down for the end of the
week. Still some notable differences in model data with respect
to the system for Tue and Wed, timing, speed of the trof
development and short waves moving through it. Deep moist
southerly flow will be in place across the North country, and
winds will be picking up Tue ahead and along the frontal
passage. Low pressure will move up through the eastern Great
Lakes and west of the region on Tue with a cold front moving
slowly eastward through the region through Tuesday night
providing the main lift for precipitation. Current thought is
that rainfall will range from around a quarter of an inch to
about an inch and a half with the highest totals over Vermont.
Eventually the trough axis shifts over the region Wednesday
night into Thursday and precipitation should taper off to
showers and decrease in areal coverage but with upper trof and
cooling aloft overhead there will be some instability showers
around into Thu. Looking at a continuation of much above
normal temperatures Tue in the upper 60s to lower 70s, just a
bit cooler Wed and a bit more Thu and Fri but perhaps not even
to normal despite the clouds and precipitation.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Through 06Z Sunday...VFR conditions are expected through the
period with only high level clouds expected. Winds will
generally be less than 10 knots.

Outlook...

Sunday Night: VFR. Patchy FG over easter Vermont.
Monday: VFR. Patchy FG.
Monday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA.
Tuesday: VFR/MVFR. Breezy. Likely RA.
Tuesday Night: VFR. Likely RA.
Wednesday: VFR/MVFR. Chance SHRA.
Wednesday Night: VFR/MVFR. Chance SHRA.
Thursday: VFR/MVFR. Chance SHRA.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
KTYX radar at Fort Drum, New York will remain down for
scheduled maintenance until further notice as technicians
repaint the radome.

MPV is not transmitting due to a communications outage. FAA is
aware of the problem. We do not have an estimated return to
service.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Evenson
NEAR TERM...Evenson
SHORT TERM...Neiles
LONG TERM...Neiles
AVIATION...Evenson
EQUIPMENT...BTV



 
 
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