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  Friday June 22, 2018

 

NWS Area Forecast Discussion


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000
FXUS61 KBTV 201905
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
305 PM EDT Wed Jun 20 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will move in from the northwest this evening and help
spark scattered showers and a the possibility of a thunderstorm
across the international border. Drier air behind the cold front
will suppress how far south the shower activity is observed. This
drier air will also lead to clearing skies for the remainder of the
work week with sunny skies on tap Thursday and Friday. Showers and
thunderstorms are expected over the weekend as a warm front moves in
from the south on Saturday and a cold front approaches from the
northwest on Sunday. High pressure will build across the North
Country beginning Monday which will lead to sunny skies and
seasonably warm temperatures prevailing through the first half of
next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
As of 305 PM EDT Wednesday...Mesoanalysis this afternoon shows
some skinny CAPE developing across northern Vermont and northern
New York as temperatures warm into the upper 70s to near 80
degrees. An approaching cold front over southeastern Ontario
will interact with this limited instability and help spark a few
showers near the international border. There is also a very
slight chance of a thunderstorm or two but given how weak the
cold front will be by the time it gets here and the limited
instability, it wouldn`t be surprising to see no thunderstorms
at all. Current forecast shows drier trends from Burlington
southward as drier air catches up to the cold front and any
instability present during afternoon heating quickly wanes as
the front will push through during the late evening/overnight
hours.

Thursday looks to be a beautiful day across the North Country as
skies quickly clear behind the cold front that will push through
overnight tonight. With dry air advecting southward and high
pressure beginning to settle over the region, clear skies are
expected to prevail throughout the day. Some gusty winds along
Lake Champlain and vicinity could be seen briefly during the
early morning hours as a decent gradient wind sets up as high
pressure is build into the region. High temperatures on Thursday
will be slightly below normals as temperatures only climb into
the upper 60s to lower 70s. Thursday night will be a little on
the chilly side with temperatures in the 40s with portions of
the northern Adirondacks dropping into the mid 30s. Nevertheless,
with decreasing dewpoints and slightly below temperatures,
Thursday afternoon is shaping up to be a beautiful first day of
summer.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
As of 333 AM EDT Wednesday...The Thursday night thru Friday
night period will feature generally tranquil weather as sfc high
pressure builds from sern Ontario/swrn Quebec esewd across
northern New England, and eventually into the Canadian Maritimes
by Friday aftn into Friday night. Should see good radiational
cooling conditions with light winds and clear skies Thursday
night. Lows generally mid-upr 40s, but would anticipate some upr
30s in the normally colder locations within the nrn Adirondack
region and across sheltered locations of far nern VT. Should see
a moderating air mass on Friday as south winds develop around
10 mph. Relatively low humidity levels (2-m dewpoints in the upr
40s to lower 50s) will continue, but high temperatures will be
warmer on Friday, reaching the upr 70s to lower 80s. Will begin
to see some fringe effects of closed 700-500mb low expected
across the Ohio Valley Friday night. As this system slowly
shifts newd, increasing cloudiness is expected Friday night. The
00Z ECMWF suggests associated precipitation remains south and
west of our region Friday night, but the 00Z GFS is a bit
quicker to bring potential rain showers into nrn NY after
midnight. At this point, indicated just 20-30 PoPs for Franklin
NY and St. Lawrence counties during the pre-dawn period
Saturday. The increasing cloud cover will result in milder
overnight temperatures, with pre-dawn lows mainly in the 50s,
except near 60F for the St. Lawrence Valley.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 333 AM EDT Wednesday...Both the 00Z ECMWF/GFS suggest
unsettled weather this weekend as mid- level low over the Ohio
Valley is forecast to become an open wave and lift newd across
NY state on Saturday, and eventually across nrn New England for
Saturday night. A second mid-level trough in nwly flow moves
across the North Country late Sunday into early Monday, with the
potential for additional scattered showers. Precipitable water
values will be moderately high but not excessive. Unlike the 2"+
PW experienced this past Monday, will see values 1.5-1.7" in
advance of the Ohio Valley system for Saturday. Overall, present
indications suggest cloudiness and weak mid-level lapse rates
will keep instability low (SBCAPE < 1000 j/kg). Anticipate
widespread showers Saturday, and included a chance of embedded
thunderstorms west of the Green Mtns, including the Champlain
Valley and all of nrn NY (slight chance tstm east of the Green
Mtns). Severe storms not currently expected. Highs on Saturday
mainly in the 70s. Maintained 60-80 PoPs for Saturday night with
lows in the upr 50s to lower 60s. May see a break in the shower
activity on Sunday - especially during the morning hrs - but
with trailing shortwave trough approaching from sern Ontario,
should see another period of widespread showers late Sunday into
Sunday night/early Monday. Gradual clearing is anticipated
Monday night into Tuesday. Highs on Monday only in the lower
70s, but increased prospects for sunshine should result in highs
in the 75-80F range for valley locations on Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Through 18Z Thursday...VFR conditions look to prevail through
the forecast period. A cold front will move into the area from
the northwest this evening which will help spark some scattered
showers and a slight chance of thunderstorms across the
international border. Most of New York and Vermont will remain
on the dry side as drier air aloft begins to catch up to the
cold front. A wind shift from the southwest to the northwest
will occur behind behind the FROPA but winds should generally
remain less than 10 kts. By tomorrow morning, skies will go SKC
with an abundance of dry air overhead.

Outlook...

Thursday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Friday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Friday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
Saturday: VFR. Likely SHRA, Chance TSRA.
Saturday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Likely
SHRA.
Sunday: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. Likely SHRA.
Sunday Night: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. Chance SHRA.
Monday: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. Chance SHRA.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Clay
NEAR TERM...Clay
SHORT TERM...Banacos
LONG TERM...Banacos
AVIATION...Clay



 
 
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