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Current conditions from King Hill
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  Tuesday April 13, 2021

 

NWS Area Forecast Discussion


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FXUS61 KBTV 122325
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
725 PM EDT Mon Apr 12 2021

.SYNOPSIS...
Quiet weather is expected to continue through Wednesday as we
remain trapped between two upper level lows. Temperatures will
remain seasonal, albeit above normal, with highs in the 60s and
lows 30s and 40s. The upper level low to our west will move
toward the North Country on Thursday which will bring the next
chance of rainfall to the region. Rain chances will continue
into early in the weekend before high pressure builds back
across the region.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 718 PM EDT Monday...No changes for the 730 pm update this
evening. Just adjusted forecast to reflect current temperature
trends. Clouds remain across the region with showers off to our
southwest. Minimum temperatures will drop into the mid 30s to
lower 40s. Previous discussion follows.

A decaying upper level low continues to track across western
Pennsylvania this afternoon and is expected to dissipate this
evening over Delaware and New Jersey. Light rainfall continues
to be observed across Central New York but building mid- level
heights will continue to suppress any rainfall to the south of
our forecast area this evening. In the mean time, easterly flow
in the low levels has helped advect a maritime air mass into
Vermont with dewpoints increasing this afternoon with noticeably
cooler temperatures compared to the past several days. We will
see a lot of this cloud cover dissipate during the overnight
hours as drier air filters into the region which will allow for
lows to drop into the mid 30s to lower 40s. Very quiet weather
is in store for the North Country on Tuesday as we will remain
trapped between two cut off low pressure systems. Highs will
warm nicely under partly to mostly sunny skies into the lower to
mid 60s with no chances of rainfall once again. We will likely
see some lake breezes tomorrow afternoon at Burlington and
Plattsburgh given the temperature differential between the land
and lake and very weak synoptic flow which could bring some
cooler temperatures to the lake shore.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 325 PM EDT Monday...Upper low remains far enough to our
west on Wednesday and Wednesday night that much of the area
should remain dry. Cannot rule out a shower or two during the
afternoon over northern New York, but that is about it. High
temperatures will generally be in the 60s with lows Wednesday
night in the mid 30s to mid 40s.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 325 PM EDT Monday...Still no consistency in the long
range data with the next upper low moving toward the region
Thursday into Friday. But here is what we do know...upper low
will approach the region Thursday, but then the blocking pattern
will force it to our south and east. This will establish a
north to south gradient of precipitation chances with highest
south and lowest north. Dynamic cooling associated with the
upper low suggests temperatures just off the surface would cool
enough to produce some high elevation snow, generally above 1000
feet. At this time the southern Green Mountains would have the
best chance at seeing some of this snow. Given how the longer
range data has struggled overall with the blocking pattern, kept
precipitation probabilities in the slight chance to chance
category. But the values are higher based on NBM Viewer
probabilities of 0.01 and 0.10 inches with this event. System
eventually moves far enough south and east for precipitation to
come to an end and dry weather returns for Saturday. A few
showers will be possible on Sunday as an upper trough approaches
the region. Overall still looking above normal temperatures,
generally several degrees above normal/

&&

.AVIATION /23Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Through 18Z Tuesday...Other than some localized MVFR ceilings
at KRUT, VFR conditions continue to prevail with a BKN deck of
clouds between 4000 and 5000 ft. KRUT will likely continue to
see MVFR conditions through around 00Z with ceilings raising
thereafter and beginning to scatter out. Winds are all over the
place today with winds generally following terrain/lake
influences. KBTV and KPBG are feeling the effects of a lake
breeze off Lake Champlain while KMSS is stuck with northeast
winds in the St. Lawrence Valley. The strongest winds are
occurring in areas with channeled terrain where wind gusts
between 20 and 25 knots have been observed. As high pressure
builds into the region tonight, we will see winds go light and
variable before increasing slightly from the north/northwest on
Tuesday. VFR conditions will prevail at TAF sites following 00Z
with ceilings lifting to 6000 to 8000 ft before scattering out
overnight.

Outlook...

Tuesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
Wednesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Thursday: VFR. Chance RA.
Thursday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance RA.
Friday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance RA.
Friday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Slight chance
RA.
Saturday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. NO SIG WX.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Clay
NEAR TERM...Clay/Neiles
SHORT TERM...Evenson
LONG TERM...Evenson
AVIATION...Clay


 
 
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