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  Sunday January 26, 2020

 

NWS Area Forecast Discussion


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000
FXUS61 KBTV 210541
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
1241 AM EST Tue Jan 21 2020

.SYNOPSIS...
Expansive high pressure over the central and eastern US will
lead to an extended period of dry and quiet weather through much
of the week. After one more cold day, temperatures will
gradually warm through the week. The next chance for any real
precipitation will be over the weekend after the high pressure
shifts northeastward and a low pressure system moves to the
eastern US.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 710 PM EST Monday...Forecast remains on track early this
evening. A broad ridge of high pressure currently draped across
the Midwest will continue to shift eastward through the near
term period. The resultant weakening pressure gradient and clear
skies will allow for a decent radiational cooling night tonight
with temperatures to drop below zero across the entire North
Country; the coldest locations in the Adirondacks and Northeast
Kingdom will approach -15F.

Tuesday will see continuing cold, though it`ll be a little
warmer than today, especially in the St Lawrence Valley, as
winds turn light southwesterly. A weak upper shortwave trough in
the northern stream will swing down through Quebec late in the
day Tuesday and into Tuesday night. This will mainly result in
increasing clouds, though a few mountain snow showers will be
possible overnight Tuesday night as the shortwave trough pushes
across the region. Any snow will be light though due to a lack
of deep moisture. Temperatures will likely hold steady or even
rise a bit overnight Tuesday night, especially for areas from
the Champlain Valley westward. East of the Champlain Valley lows
will be in the single digits, while western areas will be in
the 10 to 20 degree range overnight.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 334 PM EST Monday...Dry weather is expected from
Wednesday through Wednesday night with surface and upper level
ridging over the area. Though a gradual warming trend will begin
on Wed, temperatures Wed night will still be quite cold with
ideal radiational cooling set up and fresh snowpack areawide.
Maximum temperatures on Wed will range through the 30s, then
minimum temperatures Wed night fall into the teens and single
digits east of the Greens.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 334 PM EST Monday...Quiet weather will continue from
Thursday through early Saturday. Temperatures will remain above
seasonal normals. Next system to impact the North Country will
then come into play later in the day Saturday, continuing
through sometime Sunday. Low will track from the Ohio river
valley on Friday night, and then south of our area Saturday
night, and off the coast of Cape Cod on Sunday. Main differences
between the GFS and ECMWF now is that the GFS is quicker to
move the system east of the region. Otherwise, increasing clouds
and chance for snow late in the day Saturday overspreads the
north country Saturday night and Sunday. On Sunday night will
have some wrap around snow showers in lingering northwesterly
flow. At this time, looks like a lighter event for us with about
a tenth to a half an inch of QPF yielding 1 to 5 inches of
snow. Will continue to monitor this system as we get closer to
the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Through 06Z Wednesday...VFR conditions throughout the period
with dry air mass and high pressure in control. Mid/high clouds
will begin to spread over the area Tuesday morning/early
afternoon, but ceilings will generally remain at or above 080
kft. Winds will be light and variable tonight, averaging less
than 5 kts. Winds will shift into the S-SW Tuesday afternoon at
5-10kt.

Outlook...

Wednesday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Thursday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Thursday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Friday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Friday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Saturday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SN, Chance
RA.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Hastings
NEAR TERM...Banacos/Hastings
SHORT TERM...Neiles
LONG TERM...Neiles
AVIATION...JMG


 
 
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