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FXUS61 KBTV 221133
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
733 AM EDT Mon Apr 22 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
After a chilly night tonight, a cool and dry day is expected today
with mostly sunny skies and some breezy winds. Temperatures will
warm up on Tuesday, with rain chances increase Tuesday night and
Wednesday and colder weather returning later this week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 718 AM EDT Monday...The cold front has just about exited
the region this morning, with mostly clear skies across the
region. Dry air has continued to work in, with dewpoints already
sitting in the teens. Temperature got quite chilly overnight,
with lows in the 20s to around freezing. No major changes were
needed with update, just some small tweaks to reflect recent
observations.

Previous Discussion...A quiet and mostly sunny start to the
work week is expected today in the wake of a cold front dropping
across the region overnight and high pressure building.
Extremely dry, yet cool, air has moved in behind this frontal
passage with single digit dewpoints expected this afternoon.
Deep mixing will allow for some breezy northwesterly winds this
afternoon, with gusts of 15 to 25 mph. The dry and breezy
conditions make for some fire weather concerns. Daytime highs
will be several degrees colder than typical late April, with
temperatures in the 40s to low 50s. Clear skies overnight will
allow for strong radiational cooling, with overnight lows
dropping into the mid 20s to mid 30s.

Temperatures will warm up on Tuesday under strong southerly flow as
high pressure shifts eastward. Most of the day will feature dry
conditions and increasing clouds ahead of an approaching cold front
Tuesday night. Breezy conditions are expected in the afternoon with
an increased pressure gradient, with gusts between 20 to 30 mph
possible. Temperatures on Tuesday will warm into the low to mid 60s
across the broad valleys, with the high terrain staying in the 50s.
Although the air temperatures will be warm, water temperatures
remain dangerously low in the 40s so use caution if venturing out
onto lakes and rivers.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 410 AM EDT Monday...The main point of interest will be a strong
upper trough diving southeast Tuesday night into Wednesday. We`ll be
placed at the left exit region of a modest 100 knot upper jet and at
the nose of a low- level jet to our southwest. The system will
produce a healthy dose of rain, with good moisture flux up against
the sharp frontal boundary diving south late Wednesday morning and
early afternoon. A quick transition to snow will take place late
Wednesday into the overnight hours, but progressive flow will take
moisture away, especially considering the strong late season
Canadian High around 1030mb. So daytime highs will likely occur
early in the day. Sharp pressure gradients will drive northwest
winds up to 25 to 30 mph in the afternoon, especially through the
Champlain Valley. It`s not going to be a pleasant Wednesday evening.
Some orographic snow showers may get squeezed out as the vort max
swivels southeast heading into Wednesday night, but PWATs will be
sinking down to 0.15" or less by that point. It will be chilly for
this point of the year, with teens across the Adirondacks and 20s
across the rest of the region.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 410 AM EDT Monday...Canadian surface high pressure will settle
overhead following the Wednesday systems. It could still be breezy
and cool on Thursday, but with little wind on Friday and moderating.
Very dry weather is expected. PoPs nil Friday. We`ll warm up into
the weekend, especially beyond Saturday once an upper ridge crests
overhead. This will also usher in moisture. So as we transition into
the new week, we could have a couple decaying systems trying to
break down the ridge, but look to be unsuccessful and produce mainly
light precipitation. Conditions look like they could become quite
toasty by next Monday and Tuesday as 925 hPa temperatures climb
above 15 C.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Through 12Z Tuesday...VFR conditions will prevail at all
terminals for the next 24 hours with the region under high
pressure. Outside a few scattered clouds, clear skies will
prevail, with some high clouds starting to move in at the end of
the forecast period. Winds this morning will be from the
northwest between 5 to 10 knots, with gusts of 15 to 25 mph
developing this afternoon. Overnight winds will shift towards
the south.

Outlook...

Tuesday: VFR. Windy with gusts to 30 kt. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Definite RA.
Wednesday: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Definite RA,
Chance SHRA, Chance SHSN.
Wednesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Thursday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Thursday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Friday: VFR. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Dry weather is expected across the region today and Tuesday
under high pressure. While temperatures are on the cooler side
today, temperatures will warm into the low 60s by tomorrow.

Today, low relative humidity values of 15 to 25 percent and
gusty northwest winds of 15 to 25 mph may have an impact on fire
weather conditions today. On Tuesday, relative humidity values
may drop near 30 percent with southerly winds gusting up to 25
mph in the afternoon. Given that we are pre- green up, the low
relative humidity and breezy conditions will make for some fire
weather concerns during the afternoon, and could make any fires
difficult to control.

A period of widespread precipitation is expected Tuesday into
Wednesday, with drier weather returning later this week.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Kremer
NEAR TERM...Kremer
SHORT TERM...Haynes
LONG TERM...Haynes
AVIATION...Kremer
FIRE WEATHER...Kremer