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  Monday September 16, 2019

 

NWS Area Forecast Discussion


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000
FXUS61 KBTV 141753
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
153 PM EDT Sat Sep 14 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
Gusty south to southwest winds will continue this afternoon
before finally tapering off tonight. Other than a few showers
this afternoon and early evening drier weather will return to
the North Country as high pressure builds into the region
tonight. This will make for a nice day on Sunday with highs in
the mid 60s to around 70...no precipitation... and partly to
mostly sunny skies.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 153 PM EDT Saturday...Still expect the gusty south to
southwest winds over the next few hours. Strongest winds aloft
will continue to shift out of the area...but breaks in the
clouds will allow for better mixing to keep the gusty winds
going a few more hours. Amount of moisture associated with an
upstream front is fairly weak as is the forcing with the front.
So only expecting a few showers later this afternoon and
evening. Have tweaked the forecast to account for the above
scenario.

Previous Discussion...
An elongated cold front is pushing east across St. Lawrence and
Franklin County, NY. A few embedded rumbles of thunder have
occurred, but think these will be fairly short-lived. Strong,
gusty winds have been verifying well this evening with several
sites along Lake Champlain reporting frequent 40-45 mph gusts.
With a strong low-level jet progressing across the region and no
real changes in 00Z guidance, still expecting strongest gusts
on the lake and across high peaks with an isolated 50 mph gust
not out of the question. This strengthening low-level jet will
cause downsloping to shadow the Champlain Valley from this
broken line of rain moves east over the next few hours.

For Saturday afternoon, elongated front washes out, with a few
scattered showers possible, mainly along the Green Mountains and
eastern VT. Winds gradually come down mid-morning to Saturday
evening, though still remaining breezy with 20-30 mph gusts out
there. Highs should top out in the 60s to near 70. Overnight
lows will be in the 50s for much of the region. Showers chances
exit overnight Saturday.

For Sunday, a weak shortwave pushes east during the afternoon, but
with mostly westerly to west-northwesterly flow, moisture
convergence and support from low-level warm advection will be
lacking. Thus, expect mostly an increase in clouds Sunday afternoon,
with perhaps an isolated shower across northern NY. Highs in the mid
60s to near 70.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 350 AM EDT Saturday...A weak ripple in northwest flow aloft is
expected Sunday night along with some moisture advected in from the
southwest. At the surface weak low pressure will track from the
Great Lakes southeast toward New York city on Monday. It`s just
enough to carry some clouds across the region with a low chance of
showers especially in the south and west portion of the area Sunday
night into Monday morning. Low temps ranging from the mid 40s to mid
50s.

The system exits quickly by Monday afternoon with cold advection
taking place leaving partly sunny skies with fair weather stratocu
developing. High temps in the 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 350 AM EDT Saturday...The long term period looks mainly fair
and dry with temperatures a little below normal initially Monday
night and Tue but warming above normal by Wed through Fri. Our
weather pattern will be dominated by an amplifying upper level ridge
aloft to our west with a mainly dry northwest to northerly flow over
our region. High pressure at the surface Tue slowly drifts over over
our region then off to our south and east by Thu and Fri allowing
temperatures to moderate. Looking for lows in upper 30s to upper 40s
both Tue and Wed morning with daytime highs in the 60s Tue to lower
70s Wed. By Thu and Fri, looking for highs in the 70s and lows mid
40s to mid 50s.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Through 18Z Sunday...Gusty south to southwest winds will
continue through about 00z before tapering off. Expect gusts in
the 20 to 30 knot range until 00z. Ceilings will be in the MVFR
and VFR categories through 00z before decreasing in areal
coverage and becoming VFR. As low level inversion sets up later
tonight...can see some moisture getting trapped under the
inversion and MVFR to IFR ceilings may return to KSLK and KMPV
through about 14z before mixing develops and clouds go away. VFR
conditions are expected after 14z at all locations with high
pressure building into the region bringing much quieter
conditions to the region.

Outlook...

Sunday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
Monday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
Monday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. NO SIG WX.
Thursday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. NO SIG WX.

&&

.MARINE...
Strong southerly winds will continue this morning across Lake
Champlain with sustained winds of 25 to 35 knots and gusts as
high as 45 knots. Winds will start to slowly taper off into the
20 to 30 knot range this afternoon before noticeably tapering
off tonight. In the meantime...difficult boating conditions are
expected today with 3 to 6 foot waves with the highest waves
over the northern third of the lake.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Haynes
NEAR TERM...Evenson/Haynes
SHORT TERM...Sisson
LONG TERM...Sisson
AVIATION...Evenson
MARINE...Evenson


 
 
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