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  Tuesday March 19, 2019

 

NWS Area Forecast Discussion


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684
FXUS61 KBTV 180809
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Burlington VT
409 AM EDT Mon Mar 18 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will continue to build down from Canada today. Dry
weather is expected along with a continuation of below normal
temperatures. There could be a few snow showers this evening
across parts of northern New York and again on Tuesday
afternoon. The remainder of the area will remain dry during this
period with temperatures remaining below normal. We will finally
see temperatures at or above normal on Wednesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 409 AM EDT Monday...The last of the light snow showers
are moving across southern Vermont early this morning and should
be out of the area by about 6am. Areal coverage of clouds will
also be decreasing as high pressure builds in along with drier.
Below normal temperatures will continue today with highs in the
upper 20s to mid 30s. A weak shortwave trough moves down across
the area and this could bring a few snow showers to parts of
the northern Adirondacks this evening...but most of the area
will remain dry. Clear skies and light winds later tonight will
result in low temperatures generally in the 5 to 15 degree range
with temperatures approaching zero in Essex county Vermont.
Much of Tuesday will be dry once again...but another weak
shortwave trough and some instability will bring a slight chance
of snow showers to parts of the northern Adirondacks. High
temperatures on Tuesday will be a couple of degrees warmer than
Monday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 409 AM EDT Monday...The weather midweek will be shaped by
increasing southwesterly flow ahead of a sharpening shortwave
trough digging into the Great Lakes from central Canada. The
setup will bring warm air advection and positive moisture
advection to the Burlington forecast area, prompting a midweek
warming trend. Tuesday night, western portions of our forecast
area will feel the impacts of the warm air advection before
areas further east. This will translate to increasing cloud
cover and overnight low temperatures in the teens to mid 20s in
the Saint Lawrence and Champlain Valleys and the northern
Adirondacks. Further east however, central and eastern Vermont
will see overnight temperatures fall into the single digits to
low teens.

Southerly winds and cloud cover will increase during the day
Wednesday as the system draws closer from the west. This will allow
temperatures to quickly climb during the day, reaching the low
to mid 40s by Wednesday afternoon.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 409 AM EDT Monday...Some light precipitation will spread
over the region Wednesday night through Thursday ahead of a cold
front. Precipitation type will be dependent on elevation -
valleys will generally see rain or a rain/snow mix while higher
elevations will see some snow. As the front pushes through from
the west during the day Thursday, there is the potential for the
development of low pressure off the coast of New England, which
may stall precipitation over the area through Thursday night or
so. Nonetheless, by Friday afternoon the now strengthening
system will have departed the area and moved to the Canadian
Maritimes, putting the Burlington forecast area back in a
northwesterly flow showery regime. Scattered showers will
continue through Friday night, before the area dries out going
into the weekend.

With regards to temperatures, Thursday and Friday will be near
normal with highs in the upper 30s to low 40s. It still looks like
a cooling trend is in store for the weekend, however the shot of
cold air on the way for Saturday is not looking quite as scary as it
did a few days ago. While there is still some discrepancy between
the colder ECMWF and the more moderate GFS, temperatures will
only be 5 to 10 degrees below normal Friday night through Saturday
night. The colder air will quickly be shunted to the east by
strengthening high pressure to our south, and temperatures
Sunday will climb back to near or above seasonable normals.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Through 06Z Tuesday...VFR conditions are expected through the
period. Other than a few snow showers possible at KMPV and KRUT
through 08z...clearing skies will be taking place as high
pressure builds in. No obstruction to visibility is expected
with the snow showers. Winds will generally be under 10 knots
through the period from the west and northwest.

Outlook...

Tuesday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR and IFR possible.
Likely SHSN, Likely SHRA.
Thursday: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. Chance SHRA,
Chance SHSN.
Thursday Night: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Chance SHSN.
Friday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance SHSN, Chance
SHRA.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Evenson
NEAR TERM...Evenson
SHORT TERM...RSD
LONG TERM...RSD
AVIATION...Evenson



 
 
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