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FXUS61 KBTV 261419
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Burlington VT
1019 AM EDT Sun May 26 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
A warm front will push into the area this evening with
widespread rainfall expected along with a few non-severe
thunderstorms. Precipitation tapers off for Sunday as a weak
cold front drops through the area and high pressure builds in
from the west. Fair and mainly dry weather continues through
Tuesday before more unsettled conditions return for the later
half of the work week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 1019 AM EDT Sunday...Going forecast remains in excellent
shape late this morning. Other than some noise-level tweaks to
hourly temperture and dewpoint trends over the next few hours no
changes were needed. Have a great day.

Excerpts from prior discussion...The trend of diminishing the
weak thunderstorm threat for today continues as models have
latched on to an earlier passage of the front (late this morning
into early afternoon). The earlier timing will severely limit
the amount of destabilization the atmosphere undergoes before
the boundary moves through, especially with the amount of low
clouds persisting through the morning. In addition, the mid and
upper- levels of the atmosphere are very dry this morning, which
will further limit thunderstorm potential.

Once the front moves through this afternoon, mixing heights will
increase, allowing for any remaining low clouds to mix out and for
the development of some fair weather cumulus clouds in their place.
Winds will shift to the north this afternoon and become a little
breezy as the front moves through. Temperatures today will be rather
warm, with highs reaching the mid to upper 70s in valley locations
and low 70s in higher elevations.

High pressure will build over the area overnight tonight, which will
lead to clearing skies and diminishing winds.  Overnight lows will
be in the upper 40s to around 50.

A weak cold front will move through from the north during the
afternoon Monday.  Moisture will be very limited as the front moves
through, but can`t rule some isolated light showers associated with
the frontal passage. Temperatures Monday will be slightly below
normal due to the continued northerly cold air advection, but
overall Monday should be a pleasant late spring day with highs in
the 60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 424 AM EDT Sunday...Idea of northwest flow aloft having a
noticeable impact on our weather for Monday night and Tuesday still
looks good. Dry weather is expected Monday night as a result of this
flow pattern. And with the flow aloft not backing to the west until
late in the day on Tuesday the bulk of precipitation should remain
south of our area. Portions of the northern Adirondacks and the
southern half of Vermont will have the best chance of seeing showers
Tuesday afternoon with only a slight chance up across the northern
tier. With respect to temperatures lows Monday night will be in the
upper 30s to mid 40s...but in the mid 30s across parts of the
northern Adirondacks and Northeast Kingdom of Vermont. Have added
patchy frost in these areas. Highs on Tuesday will generally be in
the lower to mid 60s with 50s in the mountains.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 424 AM EDT Sunday...Flow aloft transitions to the southwest
Tuesday night into Wednesday. Any showers Tuesday night should move
out of the area and there will likely be a period of dry weather on
Wednesday. Conditions will change Wednesday afternoon and the first
half of Wednesday night. Convective threat will increase as
instability develops over the area and deep layer shear increases as
well. In addition...precipitable water values increase and forecast
soundings suggest the potential for heavy rain with any of the
convection. This will definitely be something to keep an eye on.
Showers and storms will continue Wednesday evening before tapering
off during the overnight hours. Feel we are going to be on the dry
side Thursday morning with maybe a few showers around...but will
once again have to keep an eye on the afternoon hours. Higher
precipitable water air shifts east with some drying in the lower
levels. At the same time warmer 925 millibar temperatures move into
the area and steepen the lower level lapse rates. Forecast soundings
imply an inverted-V orientation and forecast DCAPE (downdraft CAPE)
values indicating the potential for gusty winds with any of the
storms. Again something to keep an eye on. High temperatures on
Thursday will be in the 70s to lower 80s. Upper trough moves east of
the area on Friday and we will see a return to drier weather and
temperatures at or below seasonal normals.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Through 12Z Monday...A line of showers with a couple weak
embedded thunderstorms is moving eastward through Vermont this
morning. May see some briefly reduced visibilities is central
and eastern Vermont between 12Z and 13Z before the line clears
the area, but all rain should be east of the forecast area after
13Z. Low clouds/MVFR and IFR cigs over KMSS, KSLK, and KRUT will
lift by 14Z, giving way to widespread VFR conditions through the
remainder of the TAF period. Winds will start off southerly this
morning, then turn northwesterly through the day after the
passage of a weak cold front. Some northwesterly gusts 10-20 kts
are possible between 17Z and 00Z today. Winds will diminish
after 00Z.

Outlook...

Memorial Day: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Monday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
Tuesday Night: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. Chance SHRA.
Wednesday: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Likely SHRA,
Chance TSRA.
Wednesday Night: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Chance
SHRA, Chance TSRA.
Thursday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Likely SHRA,
Chance TSRA.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RSD
NEAR TERM...JMG/RSD
SHORT TERM...Evenson
LONG TERM...Evenson
AVIATION...RSD