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  Tuesday April 13, 2021

 

NWS Area Forecast Discussion


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778
FXUS61 KBTV 121926
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
326 PM EDT Mon Apr 12 2021

.SYNOPSIS...
Quiet weather is expected to continue through Wednesday as we remain
trapped between two upper level lows. Temperatures will remain
seasonal, albeit above normal, with highs in the 60s and lows 30s
and 40s. The upper level low to our west will move toward the North
Country on Thursday which will bring the next chance of rainfall to
the region. Rain chances will continue into early in the weekend
before high pressure builds back across the region.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 325 PM EDT Monday...A decaying upper level low continues to
track across western Pennsylvania this afternoon and is expected to
dissipate this evening over Delaware and New Jersey. Light rainfall
continues to be observed across Central New York but building mid-
level heights will continue to suppress any rainfall to the south of
our forecast area this evening. In the mean time, easterly flow in
the low levels has helped advect a maritime air mass into Vermont
with dewpoints increasing this afternoon with noticeably cooler
temperatures compared to the past several days. We will see a lot of
this cloud cover dissipate during the overnight hours as drier air
filters into the region which will allow for lows to drop into the
mid 30s to lower 40s. Very quiet weather is in store for the North
Country on Tuesday as we will remain trapped between two cut off low
pressure systems. Highs will warm nicely under partly to mostly
sunny skies into the lower to mid 60s with no chances of rainfall
once again. We will likely see some lake breezes tomorrow afternoon
at Burlington and Plattsburgh given the temperature differential
between the land and lake and very weak synoptic flow which could
bring some cooler temperatures to the lake shore.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 325 PM EDT Monday...Upper low remains far enough to our west on
Wednesday and Wednesday night that much of the area should remain
dry. Cannot rule out a shower or two during the afternoon over
northern New York, but that is about it. High temperatures will
generally be in the 60s with lows Wednesday night in the mid 30s to
mid 40s.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 325 PM EDT Monday...Still no consistency in the long range data
with the next upper low moving toward the region Thursday into
Friday. But here is what we do know...upper low will approach the
region Thursday, but then the blocking pattern will force it to our
south and east. This will establish a north to south gradient of
precipitation chances with highest south and lowest north. Dynamic
cooling associated with the upper low suggests temperatures just off
the surface would cool enough to produce some high elevation snow,
generally above 1000 feet. At this time the southern Green Mountains
would have the best chance at seeing some of this snow. Given how
the longer range data has struggled overall with the blocking
pattern, kept precipitation probabilities in the slight chance to
chance category. But the values are higher based on NBM Viewer
probabilities of 0.01 and 0.10 inches with this event. System
eventually moves far enough south and east for precipitation to come
to an end and dry weather returns for Saturday. A few showers will
be possible on Sunday as an upper trough approaches the region.
Overall still looking above normal temperatures, generally several
degrees above normal/

&&

.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Through 18Z Tuesday...Other than some localized MVFR ceilings at
KRUT, VFR conditions continue to prevail with a BKN deck of
clouds between 4000 and 5000 ft. KRUT will likely continue to
see MVFR conditions through around 00Z with ceilings raising
thereafter and beginning to scatter out. Winds are all over the
place today with winds generally following terrain/lake
influences. KBTV and KPBG are feeling the effects of a lake
breeze off Lake Champlain while KMSS is stuck with northeast
winds in the St. Lawrence Valley. The strongest winds are
occurring in areas with channeled terrain where wind gusts
between 20 and 25 knots have been observed. As high pressure
builds into the region tonight, we will see winds go light and
variable before increasing slightly from the north/northwest on
Tuesday. VFR conditions will prevail at TAF sites following 00Z
with ceilings lifting to 6000 to 8000 ft before scattering out
overnight.

Outlook...

Tuesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
Wednesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Thursday: VFR. Chance RA.
Thursday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance RA.
Friday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance RA.
Friday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Slight chance
RA.
Saturday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. NO SIG WX.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Clay
NEAR TERM...Clay
SHORT TERM...Evenson
LONG TERM...Evenson
AVIATION...Clay



 
 
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