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  Wednesday November 14, 2018

 

NWS Area Forecast Discussion


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000
FXUS61 KBTV 132324
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
624 PM EST Tue Nov 13 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
After the passage of a cold front this evening, the North
Country will experience some of the coldest weather of the
season thus far midweek. Gusty northwesterly winds will combine
to create very cold wind chills Wednesday morning, so bundle up
accordingly if you will be outside. Temperatures Wednesday will
top out in the 20s, then dip down to the single digits to mid
teens Wednesday night. The next chance for widespread precipitation
comes Thursday night through Friday as the next coastal low
impacts the area.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 617 PM EST Tuesday...The drier air and gusty winds have
made it into the Champlain Valley of Vermont while recent
surface analysis places the cold front over far eastern Vermont
near the New Hampshire border. This places the drier air and
gusty winds about 2 hours behind the front which was well
represented in the inherited grids. Gusty winds in the realm of
20 to 30 mph are expected across much of the region with higher
gusts near 40 mph expected over NE Vermont after midnight. This
could complicate power outages as 6-10 inches of wet snow fell
and gusty winds could create additional power outages. Colder
air is already filtering into the North Country with northern
New York already in the mid 20s. Upstream observations show mid
teens which just gives additional credence that tonight is
going to be a chilly and windy night. Wind chill digits in the
single digits will be possible come morning so place take care
if you are out and about tonight.

Previous Discussion...The center of the low pressure system
responsible for this morning`s snow fall has moved to near Cape
Cod, continuing on a northeastward track. As the low pulls
further away, widespread precipitation has ended. Storm total
snow measured today generally ranged from 4-8 inches in the
Northeast Kingdom of VT, 2-5 inches in central Vermont, up to 2
inches in the Champlain Valley, and 2 to 5 inches in the
northern Adirondacks.

With the main precipitation winding down, attention now turns to
cold (and windy) weather on the way for the middle of the week.
A cold front extending southwestward from central Quebec
through the Saint Lawrence Valley will push southeastward this
evening. Behind the cold front lies some of the coldest air over
the continent (850 mb temperatures nearing or at -20C), which
will be centered over northern New England Wednesday.

Cold air advection will be ongoing tonight behind the front,
allowing temperatures to drop steadily through the night (although
the coldest air won`t move in until daytime Wednesday).
Expecting to see some scattered low/mid-level clouds overnight
tonight, which, coupled with some gusty northwesterly winds,
should keep radiational cooling at bay. Lows will be in the
teens to low 20s. Northwesterly winds will increase quickly this
evening as low-level instability increases behind the front and
higher momentum air aloft moves overhead. Winds will peak in
intensity between midnight tonight and 8 AM Wednesday. Strongest
gusts will be over the eastern Adirondacks, southern Green
Mountains, and Essex County, VT. These areas can expect
northwesterly/westerly winds 15 to 25 mph with gusts up to 45
mph. The low temperatures and high winds will combine to create
wind chills in the single digits early Wednesday morning, so
prepare accordingly if you will be spending any time outside. In
addition, any lingering untreated wet surfaces from today`s
precipitation will freeze overnight, so use caution on the
morning commute.

Wednesday will be raw, cold and windy with highs in the 20s and
wind chills in the upper single digits to mid-teens. The low-
levels will continue to be very unstable, so some lake-enhanced
clouds/flurries are expected downstream (south and east) of Lake
Champlain. Lake temperatures are generally in the upper 40s, so
with surface temps over the lake forecast to be in the mid 20s
in the early morning Wednesday behind the front, more than
enough instability to favor the development of some localized
flurries. Moisture will be limited however, so not expecting any
accumulation.

Wednesday night will be the coldest night of the season thus
far. Surface high pressure building over the area with subsiding
winds and clear skies will favor strong radiational heat loss,
allowing surface temperatures to plummet. Lows will be in the
single digits to mid teens across the area, warmest in the
valleys.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
As of 323 PM EST Tuesday...On Thursday, high pressure will move
eastward and away from our area. Despite increasing clouds, our
forecast area will remain dry with temperatures cooler than
normal by about 15 degrees. Next system will be approaching from
the southwest on Thursday night, spreading clouds and light
snow from south to north across our area after 00z. A low
pressure system will track from the Ohio river valley off the
delmarva peninsula on Thursday, then along the New York and New
England coasts on Thursday night through Friday. It will be
centered very close to Cape Cod by 18z Friday. Friday night it
will lift even further off to the northeast and away from the
region. During this time period, we will have light snow with
some light rain mixing in in the valleys for Thursday night and
Friday. The best chance for light snow will be from about 10 pm
Thu to 2 pm Fri. As the low lifts further northeastward and away
from our area, light snow showers will become more
orographically enhanced with the flow becoming northwesterly,
but will be ending as we lose deeper moisture. We will have
highs in the 30s and lows in the 30s from Thursday through
Friday night. First thoughts about amount of precipitation is
between three and seven tenths of an inch of liquid
precipitation. Initial thoughts at snowfall totals is 3-7 inches
of snow with the highest amounts across our southern Vermont
zones and along the spine of the Greens. There is still lots of
uncertainty this far out, especially with track of the low. Both
GFS and ECMWF currently have the low track pretty tight in
along the New England coast. If the low tracks closer to our
area, we may have to mention mixed precipitation as well. Right
now feel that it will be mostly snow with a bit of a mix of
rain.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 309 PM EST Tuesday...The active weather pattern we have
been in will continue for the remainder of the extended period
as several impulses travel through fast west-east flow aloft.
Clouds and scattered showers will linger throughout the day
Saturday despite weak upper-level height rises. Anticipate these
showers to stay mainly confined to the higher terrain.
Temperatures should warm towards more seasonable values with
highs in the upper 30s to around 40 in the valleys and low to
mid 30s across the higher terrain.

Model consensus is poor on the Sunday system with GFS more
progressive and wet compared to the ECMWF solution. At this time
have just gone with a chance of precipitation...with the
greatest likelihood for northern New York where they could see
some lake enhancement. Quiet but cloudy weather settles briefly
on Monday before a weak clipper system approaches for Tuesday.
ECMWF/GFS agreement is much better on this system so have
increased chances for precipitation. At this time, guidance
suggests that temperatures should stay cold enough Sunday
through the remainder of the extended to be supportive of all
snow across the area. No real block busters expected during this
period but certainly accumulating snowfall is possible,
especially across the high terrain.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Through 00Z Thursday...Skies are beginning to trend VFR with
drier air filtering in behind the cold front. However, some
upslope showers are being observed over the Adirondacks at this
moment bringing localized MVFR/IFR visibilities to KSLK. The
drier air should win out shortly with them quickly going VFR by
02Z. Over southern and eastern Vermont, an MVFR deck remains
entrenched with the drier air just an hour or two away. This
will trend these sites quickly to VFR by 02Z. As sites have
trended VFR with ceilings, gusty WNW winds in the realm to 22
to 30 knots have developed. These winds will persist through
the overnight hours and much of Wednesday before diminishing
tomorrow evening.

Outlook...

Wednesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Thursday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Thursday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR and IFR possible.
Definite SN.
Friday: MVFR and IFR. Definite SN.
Friday Night: Mainly MVFR, with local VFR possible. Chance SHSN.
Saturday: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. Chance SHRA,
Chance SHSN.
Saturday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance
SHSN.
Sunday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SN.

&&

.MARINE...
A Lake Wind Advisory has been issued for tonight for northwest
winds 15 to 25 kts with a few gusts up to 35 kts. Winds will
quickly increase this evening, then peak in intensity between
midnight and 8AM. Waves will increase to 3 to 5 feet after
midnight. Choppy conditions will likely persist through the day
Wednesday, so small craft should exercise caution.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Below are the record low min temperatures for November 15th:

Burlington, VT      9 (1933)
Montpelier, VT      8 (1996)
St. Johnsbury, VT  16 (2003)
Massena, NY        12 (1967)
Plattsburgh, NY    13 (1967)
Saranac Lake, NY  -12 (1993)

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RSD
NEAR TERM...Clay/RSD
SHORT TERM...Neiles
LONG TERM...LaRocca
AVIATION...Clay
MARINE...RSD
CLIMATE...RSD


 
 
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