Current conditions from King Hill
Updated every 5 minutes
  Tuesday May 23, 2017


NWS Area Forecast Discussion

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FXUS61 KBTV 211803

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
203 PM EDT Sun May 21 2017

Ridge of high pressure aloft will crest over the North Country
today providing dry conditions for most of the day, and slightly
warmer temperatures compared to the past two days. Clouds will
increase throughout the day ahead of a warm front approaching
from the southwest. This warm front will bring overcast skies
and periods of rain tonight into Monday morning. Rainfall
amounts between one- quarter and one- half inch are generally
expected across the North Country. Dry conditions return on
Tuesday with a brief period of surface high pressure, before a
deepening longwave trough aloft approaches for the mid-week.


As of 140 PM EDT Sunday...Forecast remains on track with
thickening mid-level clouds producing filtered sunshine across
the North Country. Warm air advection evident in hourly
temperature trends across the St Lawrence Valley and western
Adirondacks. This WAA will spread east, quickly warming
temperatures across the North Country. Mid and high level clouds
continue to spread across the region in prevalent southerly
flow ahead of approaching low pressure and associated front.
500mb ridge will crest over the North Country this afternoon,
keeping the region dry outside of a couple sprinkles, mainly
across our nrn NY zones. With 925mb temperatures reaching the
11-13C range and persistent southerly flow, expect max
temperatures to reach the upper 60s to low 70s today. Also
channeling up the St Lawrence and Champlain valleys will likely
lead to some mildly gusty wind, up to 20 mph.

Tonight into early Monday will have bulk of precip as we expect
rain showers to move eastward in the St Lawrence Valley around
00Z, reaching the Champlain Valley before 06Z. Mild min
temperatures Monday morning with overcast skies and southerly
flow, ranging from 40s to mid 50s.

As surface ridge slides into the Atlantic and low pressure over
Ontario approaches, pressure gradient will increase with
increasing winds and gusts, especially early Monday. Showers
continue Monday as vorticity grazes NW portions of the forecast
area. Clouds persist with Monday high temperatures ranging from
the 50s to mid 60s. Storm total QPF continue to be between
0.25-0.5 inch.


As of 325 AM EDT Sunday...Broad southwesterly upper level flow
across the region during the short term period with high
pressure giving way to a coastal low on Wednesday. Monday night
lingering chance pops in Vermont will trend downward to nil by
midnight as weak front departs the region. Little airmass change
behind the boundary, and low level winds return to southerly by
mid day Tuesday. Tuesday weak surface high pressure will keep
precipitation at bay, however periodic vort maxes eject out of
base of 500 mb trough to west will traverse the area keeping
scattered to broken sky cover. One shortwave trough moving up in
the southwest flow will spin up a surface low Wednesday morning
along the Delmarva coast and move it northeast to southern New
England coast Wednesday evening. Chance pops across the
region...ECMWF spreads precip shield further west than GFS, and
expect to further refine this part of the forecast in coming
days. Southwesterly flow will also keep seasonable temperature
in place with highs in the 70s and lows in the 40s to lower 50s.


As of 325 AM EDT Sunday...Long term period becomes more active
as the upper trough to the west shifts east, spreading
precipitation into the area. Model differences seen last night
are starting to coalesce into a common solution. Mean upper
level trough over eastern US will move east in two phases. First
is southern low moving out of Gulf states will swing northeast
Thursday, spreading more showers up the east coast. The northern
portion of the trough will hang back over the Great Lakes, then
move east and merge with the southern low remnants over the
gulf of Maine on Friday. The result is a prolonged period of
likely pops for rain Thursday and Friday. With all the pieces in
motion there should be some breaks at some point in there, but
difficult to tease out those details this far out.

For Saturday the low finally kicks out with building high
pressure. Some lingering showers especially in Vermont in the
mountains, but trend will be to salvage at least part of the
Memorial Day weekend.

Plenty of cloud cover and rain cooled air to keep temperatures
a few degrees below normal but still seasonable. Overall flow
through this period is southwesterly as well, and no real
temperature changes.


Through 18z Monday...Mid-level cloud cover (BKN-OVC100-150)
will spread ewd across the TAF locations this afternoon and
early this evening. Will see a gradual lowering of cloud
ceilings through the evening with increasing chances for rain
showers, especially during the overnight hrs. After midnight,
should see development of MVFR ceilings (2-3kft) at SLK/MSS,
along with HIR TRRN OBSCD areawide and vsby 4-5SM at times in
showers and BR. There is a chance of MVFR ceilings at the
remaining TAF locations, but anticipate predominantly 3-4kft
ceiling heights for RUT/BTV/PBG. Should see MVFR developing at
MPV by 14Z/Mon.

Winds generally less than 10kts through 06Z. Thereafter, should
see some gusts from the south approaching 20kts at BTV/PBG as
gradient flow strengthens toward daybreak.


Monday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA.
Tuesday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday: VFR. Chance SHRA.
Wednesday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA.
Thursday: VFR/MVFR. Likely SHRA.
Thursday Night: VFR. Likely SHRA.
Friday: MVFR. Likely SHRA.




LONG TERM...Hanson

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