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  Tuesday April 13, 2021

 

NWS Area Forecast Discussion


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446
FXUS61 KBTV 121724
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
124 PM EDT Mon Apr 12 2021

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak occluded front will remain stalled across central New York
through this morning, keeping showers just to our south and west
today. Otherwise, dry conditions are expected through the middle of
next week with high pressure building back across the region.
Temperatures will be a little cooler than what we have observed as
of late but we will still see values 5 to 15 degrees above normal.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 1024 AM EDT Monday...No big changes to the forecast this
morning as the main challenge is timing how quickly the light
rain showers exit to south across northern New York this
afternoon. Additional light rainfall is expected across St.
Lawrence County though the early afternoon hours with just 0.05"
or less of additional rainfall expected. Elsewhere, variable
cloud cover will yield periods of partly to mostly sunny skies.
Temperatures are on track to warm into the mid 50s to mid 60s
but could see a few places in the northern Champlain Valley
flirt with the upper 60s if enough sun is seen through peak
heating.

Previous discussion...The persistent area of rain that has
remained just to our south and west overnight will wane through
the day today as the backdoor frontal boundary shifts southwest
and drier air wins out. The best chances for rain in our
forecast area will be along and south of a Ogdensburg to Newcomb
to Rutland to Windsor line, mainly through the early morning
hours. Otherwise, expect decreasing cloud cover from northeast
to southwest, with partly sunny conditions to prevail just about
everywhere by sunset. Temperatures will be cooler today than
yesterday, ranging from the mid 50s in far eastern VT to the
lower 60s in the St Lawrence Valley. The drier weather will
linger tonight and Tuesday as ridging returns to the North
Country. After dropping into the the mid 30s to lower 40s
tonight, temperatures will warm back into the 60s areawide with
a mix of sun and clouds.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 350 AM EDT Monday...When in drought, leave it out. Guidance has
trended drier and warmer for Wednesday as the bowling ball of a low
pressure system to our west loses some oomph. That system will run
into a narrow upper level ridge building northward along the east
coast Tuesday night in the wake of the wave that passed to our south
early in the week. So yet again, looking at scattered at best rain
showers for this time frame. Clouds, unlikely to produce significant
precipitation with the upper level height rises and dry low-level
air, will move through the area from west to east, especially early
Wednesday. This may help keep temperatures from getting too chilly
even with the lack of wind. During the daytime, went towards warmer
guidance with highs in the 60 to 65 range in most areas, with ample
sunshine, especially towards the north and east farther from the
occluded low. Overall, it should be another pleasant day for outdoor
activities with gentle breezes associated with surface heating as
winds aloft remain light.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 438 AM EDT Monday...We continue to monitor increasing
precipitation chances for late in the week. While scattered
showers remain possible over the region Wednesday night into
Thursday associated with the system mentioned in the short term
period, a more organized surface low pressure area will be
developing to our south. Models are better clustered around a
more amplified storm system tracking northward on Thursday in
advance of upper-level energy, then eastward on Friday as the
strengthening low gets captured by the upper-level system. This
scenario results in a longer duration storm with heavier
precipitation mainly confined just to our south. As such,
offering a chance of rain for upwards of 36 hours for much of
the area from Thursday through Friday. Anticipate being able to
fine-tune the precipitation forecast over the next couple of
days if trends continue, with a sharp north/west cutoff
supporting a gradient of wet and dry weather somewhere over our
forecast area. Precipitation type will also be a concern. The
nor`easter will also generate a temperature gradient with
marginally cold air under the low pressure system. Sufficiently
cold air aloft in southern portions of the region will support a
mix of rain and snow in the southern Green Mountains and
Adirondacks, with light accumulations possible in the highest
terrain. Even in valley locations wet-bulb cooling may be
sufficient to produce some wet snow if precipitation is heavy
enough, particularly Thursday night/early Friday in southern and
eastern Vermont. For now, have temperatures ranging through the
40s and 50s on Friday but may need to significantly bring down
these values across southern zones if the storm lingers.

With the steering flow taking the storm system eastward rather than
northward on Friday, it is becoming increasingly likely that fair
weather will return for the weekend as weak ridging slides eastward
into the North Country. Temperatures will be near or a bit above
seasonable values, with Sunday a bit warmer than Saturday.
Precipitation chances are minimal during this period, although an
approaching shortwave on Sunday may spark showers during the late
day period.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Through 18Z Tuesday...Other than some localized MVFR ceilings at
KRUT, VFR conditions continue to prevail with a BKN deck of
clouds between 4000 and 5000 ft. KRUT will likely continue to
see MVFR conditions through around 00Z with ceilings raising
thereafter and beginning to scatter out. Winds are all over the
place today with winds generally following terrain/lake
influences. KBTV and KPBG are feeling the effects of a lake
breeze off Lake Champlain while KMSS is stuck with northeast
winds in the St. Lawrence Valley. The strongest winds are
occurring in areas with channeled terrain where wind gusts
between 20 and 25 knots have been observed. As high pressure
builds into the region tonight, we will see winds go light and
variable before increasing slightly from the north/northwest on
Tuesday. VFR conditions will prevail at TAF sites following 00Z
with ceilings lifting to 6000 to 8000 ft before scattering out
overnight.

Outlook...

Tuesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
Wednesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Thursday: VFR. Chance RA.
Thursday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance RA.
Friday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance RA.
Friday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Slight chance
RA.
Saturday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. NO SIG WX.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Hastings
NEAR TERM...Clay/Hastings
SHORT TERM...Kutikoff
LONG TERM...Kutikoff
AVIATION...Clay



 
 
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