168
FXUS61 KBTV 031905
AFDBTV
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
305 PM EDT Mon Aug 3 2026
.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
As of 305 PM EDT Monday...
No significant changes we made to the forecast.
&&
.KEY MESSAGES...
As of 305 PM EDT Monday...
1. Shower and isolated rumbles of thunder will continue until
tonight as a cold front traverses the region with brief gusty
conditions associated with the front. Drier conditions are
expected tomorrow and Wednesday.
2. Seasonably warm and unsettled weather expected for the end
of this week into next weekend.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
As of 305 PM EDT Monday...
KEY MESSAGE 1: An upper level trough and associated cold front are
slowly progressing east northeast through the region with scattered
showers across portions of the area. Wrap around moisture along the
convergent deformation band in northern New York will likely lead to
some continued light shower chances through this afternoon. In
Vermont, a boundary of showers and thunderstorms has exited east of
the Connecticut River Valley and along with it, most of our
instability for any stronger storms. Our marginal severe threat has
ended as well as a result. Behind the boundary, some lingering
showers will be possible, with perhaps an isolated rumble of thunder
or two. Mainly, a quick half inch of rain will be possible in
association with showers. Associated with the cold front, breezy, to
locally gusty, winds are expected along the higher terrain and
Champlain Valley this afternoon/evening. As the front swings east,
an associated strengthening 40-50 knot low level jet will move along
the northern portions of the region. Gusts on summit levels could
gust up to 30-40 MPH, with valley winds around 20-30 MPH, mainly
between 6 and 10 PM. A nocturnal inversion and eastward progression
of the system will help temper down winds after midnight.
Showers and thunderstorms will taper off for most by late this
afternoon. Lingering northwest wrap around flow could lead to some
continued stubborn shower chances along the higher terrain of the
northern Greens and Adirondacks tonight. Across eastern Vermont, fog
development appears likely in the valleys of the region with brief
high pressure nudging in from the west, and with calming winds.
Tuesday and Wednesday will be quieter and calmer with temperatures
in the upper 70s to mid 80s and mostly clear skies. Dewpoints will
slowly creep up by mid week however, approaching the mid 60s in some
places. With upper level diffluence in place from the high pressure,
some decent mid-level forcing will coincide with decent moisture
advection to bring scattered to numerous showers to the region
Thursday afternoon with the potential for a few strong thunderstorms
should forcing align with peak diurnal heating.
KEY MESSAGE 2: No significant changes have been made to the
forecast for the end of the week into the weekend, with warm and
unsettled weather expected as the region remains in between a
Bermuda high to our east and troughiness across the Plains.
Broad southwesterly flow across the region will allow for
plentiful moisture to advect into to the region, with occasional
shortwaves passing overhead helping to drive shower chances. As
usual in this time frame, there is some uncertainty in to the
overall extent and timing of precipitation, but several rounds
of showers and possible thunderstorms look likely at this point.
With fairly weak forcing and limited instability, severe
weather looks unlikely however areas of locally heavy rain will
be possible with PWAT values near 2 inches, although there
should be enough flow to limit any flood threat but trends will
need to be monitored as we get closer. Temperatures during this
time frame look to be on the warmer side, with highs climbing
into the 80s areawide this weekend, with increased humidity
making it feel a little uncomfortable at times.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Through 12Z Tuesday...A mix of VFR and MVFR conditions currently
prevail across terminals this morning as scattered showers
continue to move through the region. Periods of MVFR conditions
are expected to persist over the next several hours, primarily
due to ceilings. Shower activity may wane a bit towards the
afternoon, but a frontal passage may bring an additional round
of showers and thunderstorms to the region after 18Z or so, with
the best chances for thunderstorms currently across eastern
Vermont. Winds will continue to become more northwesterly
through the forecast period. It will be a bit breezy throughout
the afternoon, with gusts generally 15 to 20 knots, although 30
knot gusts will be possible. Some pockets of LLWS are possible,
especially across some of the mountain terminals. High pressure
will build in overnight tonight behind the front, bringing
clearing skies and light winds.
Outlook...
Tuesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Thursday: VFR. Chance SHRA, Chance TSRA.
Thursday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA.
Friday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Likely SHRA, Chance
TSRA.
Friday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA.
Saturday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.
&&
$$
WHAT HAS CHANGED...Danzig
DISCUSSION...Danzig/Kremer
AVIATION...Kremer
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