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  Sunday October 22, 2017

 

NWS Area Forecast Discussion


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000
FXUS61 KBTV 201950
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
350 PM EDT Fri Oct 20 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Strong high pressure building over the North Country today will
dominate the regions weather through the weekend with dry
conditions above normal temperatures expected. The next chance
for widespread rainfall comes Tuesday of next week, as a slow
moving low pressure system shifts into the northeast.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
As of 233 PM EDT Friday...Late October weather doesn`t get much
better than this, with strong high pressure over most of the
eastern CONUS dominating the North Country`s through the
weekend. Clear night skies and abundant sunshine during the days
can be expected, along with seasonably mild temperatures.
Tonight will be the coolest night through the weekend as the
high settles overhead and winds decouple leading to temps
ranging from the mid 30s to mid 40s, but as southerly flow
strengthens Saturday/Saturday night as the high shifts offshore,
lows will warm to mainly in the 40s for tomorrow night. Highs
Saturday follow suit warming into the upper 60s to low 70s, a
good 15 degrees above normal for late October!

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 345 PM EDT Friday...Upper ridge with associated surface
high pressure system remains in place over the area Sunday and
Sunday night. Plenty of sunshine and dry weather is expected
with above normal temperatures...highs in the mid 60s to lower
70s on Sunday. Winds will generally be under 10 miles per hour.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 350 PM EDT Friday...As previous forecaster noted, more
amplified pattern will be in place beginning early next week.
This will bring a more active weather pattern with several
chances for precipitation. Best chances for rain will come
Tuesday into Wednesday when deep southerly flow develops over
the area. Eventually the trough axis shifts east Wednesday night
into Thursday and precipitation should taper off to showers and
decrease in areal coverage. Looking at a continuation of above
normal temperatures through the period despite the clouds and
precipitation.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Through 18Z Saturday...VFR conditions will prevail through the
next 24 hours as a dome of high pressure continues to dominate
the North Country`s weather. West-northwesterly winds around
6-10kts with occasional gusts of 14-18kts this afternoon will
decouple and relax to nearly calm overnight with the typical
southeast drainage flow at KRUT.

Outlook...

Saturday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Sunday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Sunday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Monday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Monday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA...Chance RA.
Tuesday: VFR/MVFR. Definite RA.
Tuesday Night: VFR/MVFR. Likely RA.
Wednesday: VFR. Chance RA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Have coordinated with fire officials and reissued special
weather statement for today to bring awareness of breezy winds
and dry weather increasing fire weather concerns. Fire officials
advise against any open burning...including campfires on Friday
across northern NY and VT. Expect northwest winds today between
10 and 15 mph with localized gusts 20 to 25 mph. Minimum relative
humidity values will drop into the 25 to 35% range...with
lowest values and strongest winds across portions of central and
eastern VT on Friday afternoon. These conditions combined with
the recent dry weather has resulted in the fine fuels such as
leaves, grass, and small brush to become very dry. All these
factors combine to increase the potential for any fires that do
start to spread quickly and become difficult to contain.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
KTYX radar at Fort Drum, New York will remain down for
scheduled maintenance until further notice as technicians
repaint the radome.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Lahiff
NEAR TERM...Lahiff
SHORT TERM...Neiles
LONG TERM...Neiles
AVIATION...Lahiff
FIRE WEATHER...BTV
EQUIPMENT...BTV



 
 
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