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  Tuesday June 27, 2017

 

NWS Area Forecast Discussion


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289
FXUS61 KBTV 261910
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
310 PM EDT Mon Jun 26 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
We will have a dry start to the day today...but scattered
showers and isolated thunderstorms are expected this afternoon
and evening. An even greater likelihood of showers and
thunderstorms is expected on Tuesday. Temperatures will be
several degrees below normal both today and Tuesday. The threat
of showers will continue into Wednesday...but then a change will
take place to a warming trend starting Thursday and continuing
through the weekend. However...this pattern will also be
conducive to more widespread showers and thunderstorms across
the entire area during this period.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 1006 AM EDT Monday...Minor update to tweak sky cover a
bit into the late morning and afternoon hours. This would
suggest slightly higher coverage of clouds across southwestern
portions of the forecast area today as weak trough line lifts
northward, sparking scattered garden-variety convection into the
afternoon and early evening hours. Rest of forecast remains on
track. Have a great day.

Previous Discussion...
Noticeable differences standout when comparing today to yesterday
with respect to the convective potential. Today we are lacking
the dynamic support as the shortwave trough that enhanced
convection yesterday is moving northeast of the region this
morning. No well defined dynamic support is expected across the
area today. Cooler temperatures today will not allow for as much
instability that developed yesterday and enhanced convection.
Enough instability will develop to support convection...mainly
scattered showers with only isolated thunderstorms. Deep layer
shear has shifted just a bit to our south today versus being
right over our area today. As a result...only looking at
isolated to scattered showers today along with a few
thunderstorms. Synoptic scale features and thermodynamic
profiles do not support any storms becoming organized today.
Highs today will only be in the mid 60s to lower 70s.

Tonight...the showers and isolated storms lift northeast and
most of the activity should be done by midnight. Lows will
generally be in the upper 40s to upper 50s.

Tuesday...Well defined shortwave trough moves out of the eastern
Great Lakes and provide sufficient dynamic support for the
development of showers and some thunderstorms. Colder air aloft
will move into the region and despite highs only in the mid 60s
to lower 70s...much like today... destabilization will occur and
sufficient instability should develop for convection as 850-500
millibar lapse rates become dry adiabatic. These two elements
should be enough to create more widespread showers than today
and the idea of many areas having likely precipitation chances
looks real good. If any storms do get organized on Tuesday...could
see some small hail with them as wet bulb zero values will be
on the lower side...much like on Sunday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 247 PM EDT Monday...Wednesday looks to be a relative
minimum in the convective activity for the week. Northwest flow
aloft in the wake of the shortwave should dry things out despite
a fair amount of cold air aloft. There will be some instability
developing in the afternoon but areal coverage should remain
fairly low.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 247 PM EDT Monday...Thursday will begin a stretch of
active weather through the end of the week. A wave along a
frontal boundary will travel north of the border Thursday
through thursday night with a boundary stretched out east to
west. Showers and thunderstorms will develop to the west of the
area in the lower great lakes and southern Ontario and move east
along the boundary. Instability progged to be meager Thursday
and thursday night so overall thunder chances area fairly low.
Instability increases Friday so increased thunder chances Friday
and Friday night.

Southwesterly flow will continue to transport more moisture rich
air into the region Friday and Saturday. Available instability
progged to increase with the moisture plume moving into the
area, but deep layer shear is meager at this point. PWAT values
by Saturday way back up into the 1.50-2.00" range and heavy
rainfall is definitely a concern. The rainfall of the last week,
combined with whatever falls Thursday could set the stage for a
flash flood event Saturday. Amount and location of Thursday`s
rainfall will set the antecedent conditions for any potential
flooding Saturday. Still quite far out in the forecast, but
definitely bears watching.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Through 18Z Tuesday...Mainly VFR with SCT/BKN cigs in the
040-080 AGL range through 12Z Tuesday under light south to
southwesterly flow. Scattered showers/isolated thunderstorms to
affect terminals in the 18-04Z time frame this
afternoon/evening, but most of the period should remain dry.
KBTV threat the highest in the 22-01Z time frame. Overnight any
lingering showers to end leaving mainly VFR. Some brief and
patchy MVFR cigs in the 015 AGL range possible at KMPV and KSLK
from 09-12Z but confidence low. After 12Z Tuesday more robust
energy pushing into the area aloft will spark better coverage of
showers/sct storms. Highest coverage initially at KSLK/KMSS from
14Z onward where MVFR will be offered. Further east
shower/storm probabilities increasing by 18Z but covered with
just VCSH at this point given timing uncertainty.

Outlook...

Tuesday: VFR. Chance SHRA...Slight Chance TSRA.
Tuesday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA...Slight Chance TSRA.
Wednesday: VFR. Breezy. Chance SHRA...Slight Chance TSRA.
Wednesday Night: VFR. Slight Chance SHRA...Slight Chance TSRA.
Thursday: VFR/MVFR. Chance RA...Chance TSRA.
Thursday Night: VFR/MVFR. Likely RA...Likely SHRA... Chance TSRA.
Friday: VFR. Chance SHRA...Chance TSRA.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Evenson
NEAR TERM...Evenson/JMG
SHORT TERM...Manning
LONG TERM...Manning
AVIATION...JMG



 
 
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