FXUS61 KBTV 231729
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Burlington VT
129 PM EDT Tue Apr 23 2019
Intervals of clouds and sun can be anticipated today with mild
temperatures in the 60s to near 70. Our next system will quickly
spread a period of rain showers over the North Country by early
this evening across northern New York and overnight in Vermont.
Rainfall amounts will generally be under a quarter of an inch.
Cooler and breezy conditions will follow for Wednesday into
Thursday, before more chances for precipitation arrive Friday
into this upcoming weekend.
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 1036 AM EDT Tuesday...Forecast remains on track with the
mid-level ridge axis now moving overhead. Clouds have been quick
to dissipate once again today with the subsidence associated
with the ridge overhead. This should allow temperatures to
rebound nicely into the mid 60s to lower 70s with light
northerly winds backing to the west/southwest late this
afternoon. Did add in a slight mention of thunder this evening
for northern New York and southern Vermont given some weak
instability and a nice jet streak ejecting over the area. The
atmosphere should stabilize quickly so any mention of
thunderstorms is limited to the evening hours and gone by
Previous Discussion...Updated to increase cloud cover
across most of the area and reduce high temps by several degrees
due to more clouds. In addition, have continued to keep chc pops
in grids through 12z or so for eastern VT, as light rain showers
continue to pivot around coastal sfc low pres.
Sfc analysis shows low pres just east of Cape Cod with bands of
light rain continuing across eastern VT, where VSF has received
a third of an inch. Have continued to mention chc/likely pops
for the CT River Valley until 12z. Sky grids are tricky today
with departing east coast system and some clearing with
development of weak ridging before next system over MI arrives
by late aftn/evening. Thinking intervals of clouds/sun will be
the end result. Temp profiles are warm today with 850mb values
near 10c and 925mb of 14 to 15c, which without clouds would
support values well into the 70s. Have gone slightly warmer than
guidance with readings in the 60s to near 70 most locations.
Based on composite reflectivity progs and 850 to 500 mb rh
fields, thinking precip arrives across the slv by 21z...into the
cpv around 00z...and across most of vt by 03z. This fast moving
system will produce a 2 to 4 hour window of precip this evening
with qpf btwn 0.10 and 0.30 inches. On Weds...cyclonic
northwest upslope flow develops with moderate 925mb to 850mb
caa, as progged 850mb temps fall below 0c. Expect a chilly and
breezy day with best chcs for showers across the northern dacks
into the mountains of northern/central VT. Anticipate plenty of
clouds with some clearing possible downslope areas of the
western cpv and lower ct river valley aft 18z. Any additional
qpf will be confined mainly to the mountains and generally
under a tenth of an inch.
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 319 AM EDT Tuesday...Wednesday night will start out with
scattered rain showers across the Adirondacks, northern Greens, and
Northeast Kingdom as we will be under northwest flow behind the
departing upper low. Precipitation will gradually wind down
overnight as the low pulls away and moisture decreases. Wouldn`t be
surprised to see a bit of snow mix in, especially in the Northeast
Kingdom as the shower activity will linger longest there. Overnight
lows could be a bit tricky as they will depend on how quickly cloud
cover is able to break up, but anticipate it`ll be a chilly night
with lows in the mid to upper 30s, though the usual cold spots in
the Adirondacks and Northeast Kingdom will likely be closer to 30.
Thursday will be a pleasant day with ridging building across the
North Country. Partly sunny skies, fair weather, and seasonable
highs in the upper 50s to lower 60s are expected.
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 319 AM EDT Tuesday...Active weather is expected to continue
through the end of the week as a digging shortwave trough swings
across the region. This feature will bring fairly widespread showers
to the North Country late Thursday night through Friday. Models
diverge thereafter, with the GFS more progressive in pushing the
trough out, while both the ECMWF and CMC NH develop more of a cutoff
low which is much slower to push eastward. The GFS` faster movement
allows another weak shortwave to slide through zonal flow aloft late
Sunday/Sunday night, while the other guidance shows more of a drying
trend as the upper low finally moves away. Majority of the guidance
then shows ridging and dry weather for Monday. Have stayed
fairly close to a model blend through the weekend and into early
next week due to the discrepancies. Temperatures through the
period look to trend cooler than normal due to the persistent
troughiness. Friday will be the warmest day with near normal
highs, but colder conditions will prevail over the weekend, with
many locations struggling to reach 50 Saturday and Sunday. Lows
will be cool as well, mainly in the upper 20s to mid 30s, so
frost will be possible.
.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Through 18Z Wednesday...VFR conditions continue under weak
ridging which should continue through the afternoon hours. From
00Z onwards, showers will move into northern New York and shift
eastward through the overnight period which will yield periods
of MVFR ceilings and visibilities as rain moves through. Some
showers over northern New York could have a lightning strike or
two but have left out mention in TAFs for the time being given
the lack of confidence. In addition, heavier showers will be
possible over northern New York and southern Vermont which could
yield localized and brief IFR visibilities in the heavier
showers. Ceilings will likely reside at MVFR through Wednesday
morning although some improvement is possible at KBTV and KPBG.
Light northerly winds will shift to the west through the
afternoon with gusty winds to 25 knots possible Wednesday
morning and afternoon.
Wednesday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance
Thursday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Thursday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA.
Friday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Definite SHRA.
Friday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance SHRA.
Saturday: VFR. Chance SHRA.
Saturday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHRA, Slight chance SHSN.
Sunday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA.