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  Tuesday May 23, 2017

 

NWS Area Forecast Discussion


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000
FXUS61 KBTV 220828
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
428 AM EDT Mon May 22 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Light rain showers and overcast skies will linger today, as a
trough of low pressure exits the region. Cool temperatures today
will moderate toward normal as a weak ridge of high pressure
builds Tuesday and Wednesday. Rain will enter the forecast
toward the end of the week with an area of low pressure moving
through the northeast Thursday and Friday.  resulting in
relatively cool temperatures. Dry conditions return on Tuesday
with a brief period of surface high pressure, before another low
pressure system brings more rain for the end of the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 425 AM EDT Monday...Radar trends showing rain ending west
to east here in the pre-dawn hours, tapering off to scattered
showers. A short wave trough will move out of the northern Great
Lakes today, with a chance for one more round of showers late
morning through afternoon in a band that will move west to east
across the forecast area. With moist west to southwest flow at
the low levels will see lingering rain chances over the higher
terrain through the evening. Saturated layer in the low levels
begins drying from the top down during the day however at
inversion at about 5k feet today will trap moisture and keep us
cloudy. Boundary layer winds of 20 to 30 knots at the inversion
in the bufkit sounding, and KCXX vad winds have 40 knots at 2000
feet. This will be good for area wide winds 15 to 20 mph with
surface gusts to 30 mph. Temps about 10 degrees below normal
under the inversion, which will prevent warmer 850 mb temps from
mixing down.

Monday night through Tuesday a weak surface ridge builds into
the region. Lowering inversion and light surface winds, along
with moist ground from recent rain will promote fog formation in
the usual areas. During this time flow aloft remains
southwesterly, and low pressure over the Great Lakes will ride
through the 500 mb ridge, suppressing the ridge & shifting it
east. The low passes well enough north that the surface ridge
will win out with no rain during this time, but will still be
quite a few clouds around. Tuesday about 10 degree warmer than
monday with highs in the 60s/near 70.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 349 AM EDT Monday...Weak ridge both aloft and at the
surface build across our cwa on Weds...ahead of developing full
latitude trof over the MS River Valley. This ridging should keep
moisture and precip associated with weak low pres riding along
the eastern seaboard to our east on Tuesday Night into
Weds...with mainly a dry forecast anticipated. Progged 850mb
temps between 9-11c...support highs mainly in the mid/upper 60s
mountains to mid 70s warmer valleys on Weds. Mid/upper level
closed cyclonic circulation over the MS River Valley slowly
moves eastward toward the OH Valley on Weds Night....with
southerly winds and increasing clouds. Given the slow movement
of the closed system from the flow aloft...will keep Weds Night
dry with temps mainly in the 50s.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 349 AM EDT Monday...A period of unsettled weather likely
Thursday into Friday...with occasional rain showers and breezy
southerly winds. Closed mid/upper level circulation will slowly
track toward the Mid Atlantic States as 998mb low pres is
located near Binghamton, NY by 00z Friday. The combination of
strong southerly flow between 850 and 500mb will help advect
deeper layer moisture into our cwa...with PWS >1.0 developing.
The initial warm air advection surge will produce a period of
showers on Thursday with qpf values generally between 0.10 and
0.25. Some downslope shadowing/enhancement on southeast 925mb to
850mb of 30 to 40 knots is likely. Meanwhile...strong 5h energy
rounds mid/upper level trof base on Thursday Night...with
system becoming vertically stacked over southern New England by
Friday. The combination of easterly 925mb to 700mb flow and
favorable energy aloft will produce another round of light to
moderate rainfall on THursday night into Friday. Depending upon
exact track of low pres...will determine placement of heaviest
qpf...but nose of 850mb jet would suggest central/eastern VT.
Thinking additional qpf will range between 0.25 western areas to
0.75 central/eastern VT...with around 0.50 in the CPV. Will
mention likely pops for this period.

Friday night into Saturday...system will slowly lift northeast with
mainly light terrain driven/upslope showers persisting into
Saturday. Difficult to time individual pieces of s/w energy in the
northwest flow aloft...but thinking lingering mid level moisture and
favorable upslope flow...some rain shower activity is possible into
Saturday.

Sunday...Still some uncertainty on Sunday with timing of warm front
feature and associated potential for showers. At this time...Sunday
Morning looks dry...with a chance of showers increasing during the
afternoon hours...along with increasing humidity levels. Any precip
looks to be light and generally under 0.20".

For temps...mainly the mid 60s to mid 70s For Thursday... but only
mid/upper 50s to mid 60s with widespread clouds/rain showers for
Friday with coolest values across the eastern mountains. Weekend
temps mainly in the mid 60s to mid 70s for highs and lows mid 40s to
mid 50s. No major heat anticipated with general mid/upper level trof
across the NE Conus this upcoming weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Through 00Z Tuesday...Rain ending west to east but little effect
on flight categories with most visibilities and cigs VFR.
Ceilings to gradually lower to MVFR throughout the day, even as
rain dissipates low level moisture remains trapped below the
subsidence inversion under building high pressure aloft. low
level winds become gusty during the day out of the south with
gusts into 20-25kt range.

Outlook...

Tuesday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday: VFR. Chance SHRA.
Wednesday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA.
Thursday: VFR. Chance SHRA.
Thursday Night: VFR. Likely SHRA.
Friday: VFR/MVFR. Likely SHRA.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 425 am EDT Monday...A Lake Wind Advisory is in effect
today to early evening. Winds have come up sharply on the lake
with 4 am EDT obs gusting to 31 knots. Air temperature has dropped to
near water temperature and aided in mixing stronger winds down.
Strongest wind, 20-30 knots, before noon but will remain above
wind advisory threshold at 15-25 knots until this evening.
Waves building to 2-4 feet, with highest waves are expected
across the northern portion of the broad lake south of Grand
Isle.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Hanson
NEAR TERM...Hanson
SHORT TERM...Taber
LONG TERM...Taber
AVIATION...Hanson
MARINE...Team BTV


 
 
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