557
FXUS61 KBTV 151204
AFDBTV
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
704 AM EST Mon Dec 15 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
Upslope snow showers will continue into the morning, before
more widespread light snowfall occurs later in the day and into
tonight. A warming trend will begin Tuesday, and temperatures
will be above freezing for most areas on Wednesday and Thursday.
A stronger system looks to bring rain Thursday night, though
some back end snowfall is still possible.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 132 AM EST Monday...Upslope snow showers have begun to
develop in the northern Greens, and they will continue on and
off into the morning. Atmospheric temperature profiles should be
a little colder during the event than had been forecast last
night. This puts them right below the DGZ and it may be just too
cold for dendrites, especially early in the night. This is
supported by the fine flakes at BTV that have been falling so
far this evening. Heading into the morning, temperatures look to
warm slightly and enough lake influence could warm them just
enough to favor some dendrites. The next issue is that moisture
has been a bit lacking, with the snow gradually diminishing in
the last couple hours. Moisture should overall increase in the
later part of the night so the snow should fill back in.
Overall, an inch or two of snow still looks likely along the
western slopes, but if the moisture stays lackluster, that will
bring down snow totals. The lack of dendritic growth could also
hinder the snow amounts if it continues. The snow exits the
region in the morning and the rest of today should be mostly
dry. Moisture tracks back into the region off Lake Ontario later
in the day, entering St. Lawrence County in the afternoon. The
moisture will cause some lake effect snow to develop. The lake
effect will be helped by increasing southwest flow. However, the
flow will quickly return to being more westerly and
northwesterly later in the night, indicating a quick exit back
to the south. Overall, the expected snowfall totals will be
quite low, with only up to around an inch or two for the most
favored areas. Elsewhere, a few light snow showers may be
possible, but totals would be even lower. Strong warm air
advection will begin quickly on Tuesday, though temperatures
will stay below freezing.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 132 AM EST Monday...Warm air advection continues Tuesday
night into Wednesday, and temperatures will rise above freezing
for most areas. This would be the first time all month Saranac
Lake rises above freezing. Temperatures may be non-diurnal or at
least mostly steady Tuesday night as winds and the advection
will keep the boundary layer mixed. A low level jet and somewhat
decent mixing on Wednesday will cause strong winds,
particularly in the Champlain Valley. There, gusts could be in
the 25 to 35 mph range. A few snow showers look to enter
northern New York in the afternoon associated with a cold front,
but it will unfortunately not be enough keep temperatures below
freezing for the rest of the week.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 132 AM EST Monday...Thursday will be warm with strong
gusty southerly winds ahead of next approaching low pressure
system. Warm air will reach our western zones by mid morning
Thursday and spread across our entire area, raising temperatures
above freezing areawide by about noon. Maximum temperatures
Thursday afternoon will range from the upper 30s to lower 40s.
An 850 mb jet will be as high as 60 kts over the area by
Thursday afternoon. Winds will be strongest in the Champlain
valley where channeling will enhance the wind speeds out of the
south. Will need to monitor for potential need of a wind
advisory. On Thursday night widespread rain will move into the
area, then eventually a strong surface cold front crosses the
area Friday during the day and rain will change over to snow
before ending Friday night. Temperatures will remain above
freezing Thursday night into Friday, but don`t think we`ll have
enough thawing degree hours to cause a lot of problems with ice
jam breakups. But, rainfall on top of snowmelt will be watched
carefully as we get closer to Thursday and Friday. Strong winds
will also follow this cold frontal passage with winds turning to
northwesterly. There is still plenty of uncertainty regarding
the exact timing and placement of the system, so continue to
monitor trends as we get closer. Beyond this late week system,
additional chances for snow showers will be possible for the
weekend, especially across the higher terrain.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Through 12Z Tuesday...Some light snow showers linger across the
area this morning but will be winding down. MVFR ceilings
linger at BTV, MPV and SLK. Snow will continue at SLK due to
lake effect snow off Lake Ontario. Snowfall character will be
very light, and visibility restrictions may remain between
3-6SM. Northwest winds range about 7 to 15 knots right now, and
should trend towards 5 to 9 knots. As light snow diminishes, but
ceilings will take longer to improve. After 18z, winds will
become southwest to west-northwest. Mid to high clouds will
return as another weather system approaches the St. Lawrence
valley about 21-23z with light snow at MSS reaching the area.
Outlook...
Tuesday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Slight chance
RA, Slight chance SN.
Wednesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Thursday: VFR. Windy with gusts to 30 kt. Chance RA.
Thursday Night: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. Windy with gusts to
30 kt. Definite RA, Definite SN.
Friday: Mainly IFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance SN, Chance
RA.
&&
.EQUIPMENT...
NOAA Weather Radio station WXM-44, transmitting from Mt.
Ascutney, Vermont, on frequency 162.475 MHz is non-operational
at this time. NWS technicians have diagnosed the problem, but
repairs will likely not be able to occur for quite some time due
to circumstances beyond our control. Therefore, the time of
return to service is currently unknown. The following NOAA
Weather Radio transmitters may be able to provide service during
this outage: WWG 50 from Burke Mtn, VT at 162.425 MHz and WNG
546 from Hanover, NH at 162.525 MHz.
Equipment malfunctions at the Colchester Reef meteorological
station will likely leave it inoperable for an extended period
of time. This site is not serviced by the NWS. Technicians do
not currently have an estimated return to service for this
station. Use extra caution when navigating the broad waters of
Lake Champlain, and please contact us if you observe winds
significantly deviating from the forecast.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Myskowski
NEAR TERM...Myskowski
SHORT TERM...Myskowski
LONG TERM...Neiles
AVIATION...Neiles
EQUIPMENT...Team BTV
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