431
FXUS61 KBTV 051857
AFDBTV
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
257 PM EDT Sun Jul 5 2026
.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
As of 227 PM EDT Sunday...
No significant changes at this time.
&&
.KEY MESSAGES...
As of 257 PM EDT Sunday...
1. Pleasant weather conditions will continue through midweek.
However, localized and isolated showers are possible Monday
afternoon, followed by a chance of more widespread showers
Monday night and Tuesday primarily in southern areas.
2. Next chance for showers Thursday afternoon into the
overnight. Temperatures will start out above normal then trend
back towards seasonal normals over the weekend.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
As of 257 PM EDT Sunday...
KEY MESSAGE 1: No impactful weather (eg. minimal chance of
thunderstorms, heat, heavy rain, dense fog) is anticipated
through Wednesday. Temperatures look largely seasonable with
minimal advection/light winds through the period. There will be
some variability in humidity, modulated by a broad low
pressure/frontal system to our south. There is a strong
consensus that this system will pass far enough to our south for
us to see only light rainfall (or even none), primarily
affecting southern Vermont, during the Monday night-Tuesday
timeframe. We have backed of PoPs and QPF along with some
sharpening of the gradient from roughly south to north (tapering
quickly to minimal rain in the northern Adirondacks and points
north/west along with northern Vermont). It appears the mid-
level circulation of the low pressure area will be fairly flat
with westerly flow aloft, such that both the thick cloud cover
and rain footprint stays mostly south of our area leaving us
with a good chance of continued fair weather through this event.
Amongst the latest cycle of model guidance, only the FV3 shows
more widespread/northward coverage of rain Monday night into
Tuesday, which appears like an outlier solution at this time.
There could also be a pop up, slow moving isolated shower ahead
of this rain Monday afternoon, associated with a subtle inverted
trough and enhanced instability near the International Border
in New York and Vermont. A plethora of dry air aloft makes this
risk low and chances of thunder nearly zero.
KEY MESSAGE 2: Start of the period will feature temperatures
above seasonal normals, then trend back towards normal at the
end of the period. A cold front will move through the region,
Thursday night into Friday, with drier and more seasonable
conditions expected heading toward the weekend. Showers and
thunderstorms will accompany the frontal passage, with the
potential for any stronger storms to be monitored as we get
closer as there is still plenty of uncertainty regarding the
exact strength and timing of these features.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Through 18Z Monday..VFR conditions are expected to prevail
throughout the forecast period. Winds will be light and
variable. Some high clouds overnight should help keep fog out of
the terminals as well as the drier air which is now in place.
Outlook...
Monday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
Tuesday: VFR. Chance SHRA.
Tuesday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
Wednesday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Thursday: VFR. Chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA.
Thursday Night: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Likely SHRA,
Slight chance TSRA.
Friday: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Chance SHRA, Chance
TSRA.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.
&&
$$
WHAT HAS CHANGED...Kutikoff
DISCUSSION...Neiles/Kutikoff
AVIATION...Neiles
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