862
FXUS61 KBTV 271833
AFDBTV
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
233 PM EDT Fri Mar 27 2026
.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
As of 233 PM EDT Friday...
No significant changes from the previous forecast.
&&
.KEY MESSAGES...
As of 233 PM EDT Friday...
1. Scattered afternoon snow showers will produce brief low
visibilities and quick, light and fluffy snow accumulations on
Saturday.
2. Return to seasonable temperatures Sunday and Monday with
mainly dry weather.
3. An unsettled weather pattern is expected for next week,
bringing multiple chances for precipitation and warmer temperatures.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
As of 233 PM EDT Friday...
KEY MESSAGE 1: Following a frigid night with temperatures dropping into
the single digits to teens, unseasonably cold conditions will
continue into tomorrow; temperatures will remain sub-freezing even
in the lowest valley locations tomorrow afternoon. A remnant trough,
currently in the U.P. of Michigan, will enter our region during the
day within west-northwest flow aloft, and promote development of
scattered snow showers that should largely track from west to east.
The snow squall parameter shows some low, non-zero values,
consistent with some minor instability associated with diurnal
heating but little in the way of frontogenesis. The development of
steep low level lapse rates will promote upward motion in the lower
part of the clouds, which will have favorable temperatures for snow
production. As such, despite relatively meager moisture snow showers
will develop efficiently. High snow ratios likely near 20:1, or
possibly higher in an isolated heavier shower, point to low
visibilities in the snow with potential for blowing snow. With
minimal pressure changes the background wind fields look modest, but
deep mixing (up to about 8000 feet above ground level per HREF mean)
associated with relatively dry low level air should lead to gusts up
to 25 MPH.
Model consensus suggests most locations, especially above 1000 feet
elevation, could see a fresh coating to half inch of snow, with
localized spots above about 1500 feet likely seeing 1 to 2
inches of fluffy snowfall. Isolated showers could start up by
noon in St. Lawrence and Franklin counties in New York, become
more widespread across the Adirondacks through mid-afternoon,
push into Vermont in the late afternoon and early evening, and
wind down in northeastern portions of Vermont towards 10 PM.
Expect while many of us will see snow showers at some point
during the afternoon to evening timeframe, accumulations will be
minimal for most locations.
KEY MESSAGE 2: A moisture-starved warm front will lift through the area
early Sunday as low level flow turns southerly, marking a return to
seasonable temperatures with highs ranging through the 40s. Partly
to mostly cloudy skies Sunday night and some south winds will keep
temperatures relatively mild, likely bottoming out in the upper 20s
to mid 30s. There are slight chances for light rain or wet snow
during this period associated with weak large scale lift as some
subtle mid-level waves move through the region; at this time it
appears any precipitation Sunday or Monday should be short-lived and
very light. Continued warming on southwesterly flow on Monday will
lead to high temperatures several degrees above normal. There are
mixed signals on how much cloud cover will be around during the day,
but potential for a warm and sunny day exists.
KEY MESSAGE 3: A period of rather seasonable but unsettled weather is
expected for next week, with several chances for precipitation. A
warm front lifting across the region Tuesday into Wednesday will
bring a round of precipitation to the region, along a non-diurnal
temperature trend as temperatures warm overnight under strong
southwesterly flow. High temperatures across the region look to warm
into the 50s and 60s both Tuesday and Wednesday, although there is
still some uncertainty in exact temperatures due to model
disagreement regarding the boundary location and how quickly it
moves out of the region. Once the warm front exits the region,
cooler air looks to return for Thursday towards the end of the week,
with highs back in the 40s. Another system looks to approach the
area by Friday, bringing additional chances for precipitation.
Despite the unsettled weather pattern, the overall probability of
significant or highly impactful weather during this time period
looks low at the moment.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Through 18Z Saturday...VFR conditions are expected to prevail across
all terminals over the next 24 hours. Brisk northwesterly winds,
with gusts of 15 to 20 knots, will gradually diminish towards this
evening, with lighter winds expected overnight into the morning
hours. Cloud cover is expected to increase towards tomorrow, but
ceilings are expected to remain VFR. A few snow showers will be
possible tomorrow afternoon at the very end of the forecast period
and beyond, but given the low confidence in exact timing and
location of showers there is no mention in the forecast at this
time.
Outlook...
Saturday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHSN.
Sunday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA, Slight chance SHSN.
Sunday Night: VFR. Chance SHSN, Slight chance SHRA.
Monday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Monday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance SHSN.
Tuesday: Mainly IFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance SHRA,
Chance SHSN.
Tuesday Night: Mainly MVFR, with areas IFR possible. Likely SHRA.
Wednesday: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Likely SHRA.
&&
.EQUIPMENT...
The Colchester Reef meteorological station is out of service.
This site is not serviced by the NWS. An estimated return to
service is May 1st. Please contact us if you observe winds
significantly deviating from the recreational forecast.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.
&&
$$
WHAT HAS CHANGED...Kutikoff
DISCUSSION...Kremer/Kutikoff
AVIATION...Kremer
EQUIPMENT...NWS BTV
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