103
FXUS61 KBTV 090641
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
241 AM EDT Mon Mar 9 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
As of 240 AM EDT Monday...

A Wind Advisory has been issued for the St. Lawrence Valley today.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
As of 240 AM EDT Monday...

1. Localized ice jam flooding should continue and open water
flooding is possible mid-week.

2. Gusty winds today.

3. A storm system passes through Wednesday into Thursday,
bringing widespread precipitation.

4. More active weather expected over the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
As of 240 AM EDT Monday...

KEY MESSAGE 1: Ice breakup on rivers began in many places yesterday,
and with continued mild temperatures into Wednesday, most rivers
should see ice movement by then. Ice jams formed yesterday in a few
of the favored locations and remain in place. Currently, the
Ausable, Great Chazy, Mad and Missisquoi Rivers have ice jams with
some water backing up behind them. While some field and low lying
flooding has been observed and is still occurring, no significant
flooding has happened over roadways or into structures, other than
over a couple roads in floodplains. As ice breakup continues during
the next couple days, a few ice jams will likely to continue to
form. Thankfully, no rain is expected through Tuesday and cool
temperatures overnight will lower snowmelt. Therefore, there will be
some room for water to rise behind any jams that form before rivers
reach bankfull, so any flooding would likely continue to be on the
minor side. However, with the unpredictable nature of ice jams more
significant flooding cannot be ruled out. Due to the lack of rain,
open water flooding is not expected through Tuesday.

The next chance for open water flooding comes Wednesday into
Thursday. However, the details are uncertain due to uncertainty in
storm track. There will be a sharp temperature gradient situated
across the region, so a northerly track would lead to warm rain and
significant snowmelt, and a southerly track would lead to mixed
precipitation and little snowmelt. In the former scenario, minor to
moderate flooding would be possible, mostly in the typical spots on
the Otter Creek, and on the Mad, Ausable and Winooski Rivers. A
southerly storm track would lead to mixed precipitation and little
flooding. In either scenario, widespread major flooding is not
expected. Most rivers will likely have flushed most of their ice
before then so many areas should not have to contend with ice jams,
but a few rivers may have lingering ice problems.

KEY MESSAGE 2: A southwesterly low level jet passes overhead today,
with the peak magnitude over northern New York. Gusts in the 35-50
mph range are possible in the St. Lawrence Valley due to channeling,
while they should generally be between 20-35 mph elsewhere. Winds in
the 50-60 KT range at the top of the mixed layer and a relatively
mixed profile should allow 50 mph gusts to reach the ground in the
St. Lawrence Valley. There could be a couple isolated power outages
in the areas that see the strongest winds.

KEY MESSAGE 3: A low will track northeast into the region Wednesday
into Thursday, bringing multiple rounds of precipitation. While
ensemble guidance is in relatively good agreement on the overall
storm track, a sharp temperature gradient will set up so a change in
even 50 miles in track could mean the difference between 55 and
showery and 30 and freezing rain, and there is still too much spread
to give the exact position of the boundary. A cold high will attempt
to build south out of Canada Tuesday night into Wednesday and
surface cold air looks to drain down into the St. Lawrence and
northern Champlain Valleys. A warm front will then move into the
region with a line of west to east oriented precipitation. Freezing
rain is possible in the northern valleys during this feature, and
whether the cold air continues to drain farther south or is forced
back north remains uncertain. Southern areas should see mostly dry
conditions and a few rain showers. The center of the low passes
through Wednesday night. A line of rain is expected for most places
with this and it could end as a brief period of snow. The only place
that currently looks like it could see significant icing is parts of
the St. lawrence Valley, but the extent of that remains uncertain.
The warm temperatures and rain south of the boundary will cause a
flood threat.

KEY MESSAGE 4: Temperatures trend towards seasonal normals from Thursday
night through Monday night, and there will be a couple chances for
precipitation Friday into Saturday and again Sunday into Monday. A
clipper low will cross our area on Friday into Saturday bringing
widespread light snowfall to our region. Borderline daytime
temperatures will mean a mix of rain and snow for the warmer valleys
where the high temperatures will be above freezing. Overnight it
should be cold enough for light snowfall accumulations areawide.
Will not have too much of a break in the action as a warm front
lifts into our area on Sunday. Too far out for details at the
moment, but this system could bring a chance for some mixed
precipitation, then a change back over to snow as cold front sweeps
across our area Sunday night into Monday. Details are quite unclear
with these systems as they are so far out in the forecast period.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Through 06Z Tuesday...VFR conditions will prevail over the next 24
hours. Winds are the main concern for the period. Skies are mostly
clear over Vermont, and there`s a layer of clouds around 8000-10000
ft agl across northern New York. South to southwest winds of 5-13
knots, gusting around 20-24 knots at KMSS is ongoing. There`s likely
to be little change over the next 12 hours, while winds aloft remain
out of the southwest to west at 35-45 knots. Activity will decrease
some between 10z-14z, but surface winds and winds at 2000 ft agl
will increase again during the day. This will be most notable at
KMSS, where southwest winds will increase to 20 knots sustained with
gusts up to 35 knots or slightly higher. Winds will start to let up
in the evening and into the overnight.

Outlook...

Tuesday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday Night: Mainly MVFR, with local VFR possible. Chance RA,
Likely FZRA.
Wednesday: Mainly MVFR, with areas IFR possible. Definite RA,
Definite FZRA.
Wednesday Night: Mainly MVFR, with areas IFR possible. Definite
RA.
Thursday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance RA, Chance
SN.
Thursday Night: VFR. Slight chance SN.
Friday: VFR. Chance SN, Likely RA.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Record High Minimum temperatures today are possible at
Plattsburgh (PBG) and Burlington (BTV). Below are the records
that may be broken or tied.

BTV: 41/2012
PBG: 39/1973

Record High Maximum temperatures are possible on Tuesday (Monday
records are less likely to be broken). As of now, this is
favored at Montpelier (MPV) and the current record is:

MPV: 60/2016

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
The KBTV ASOS has suffered a communications failure. The issue
has been diagnosed, but there is currently no estimated time of
return to service. The affected communications line is not
serviced by the NWS. Terminal Aerodrome Forecasts will continue,
but regular observations may not be available.

NOAA Weather Radio station WXM-44, transmitting from Mt.
Ascutney, Vermont, on frequency 162.475 MHz is non- operational
at this time. NWS technicians have diagnosed the problem, but
repairs will likely not be able to occur for quite some time due
to circumstances beyond our control. Therefore, the time of
return to service is currently unknown. The following NOAA
Weather Radio transmitters may be able to provide service during
this outage: WWG 50 from Burke Mtn, VT at 162.425 MHz and WNG
546 from Hanover, NH at 162.525 MHz.

The Colchester Reef meteorological station is out of service.
This site is not serviced by the NWS and there isn`t an
estimated return to service at present. Please contact us if you
observe winds significantly deviating from the recreational
forecast.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...Wind Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 6 PM EDT this evening
     for NYZ026-027-087.

&&

$$

WHAT HAS CHANGED...Myskowski
DISCUSSION...Myskowski/Neiles
AVIATION...Neiles
CLIMATE...NWS BTV
EQUIPMENT...NWS BTV