061
FXUS61 KBTV 240704
AFDBTV
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
204 AM EST Tue Feb 24 2026
.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
As of 136 AM EST Tuesday...
No significant changes. Monitoring potential for snow squalls Wednesday
afternoon and evening.
&&
.KEY MESSAGES...
As of 136 AM EST Tuesday...
1. Blustery and cold today.
2. Snow will cause hazardous travel on Wednesday, first with
widespread light snow in the morning and then scattered snow showers
with localized snow squalls during the afternoon and evening.
3. Seasonable and mostly dry weather is expected for the end of
the week. A warm up is expected for Saturday, with sharply colder
temperatures returning Saturday night into early next week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
As of 136 AM EST Tuesday...
KEY MESSAGE 1:
A polar high pressure area will continue to build southeastward from
eastern Ontario this morning, where observed temperatures are below
zero. Substantial low level cold air advection is occurring between
this system and the departing Nor`easter, and mesoanalysis shows an
impressive gradient in 925 millibar temperatures with a nose of
relatively warm air ahead of this thermal boundary in Vermont.
Hence, temperatures have dropped off first in the St. Lawrence
Valley where wind chills as of this writing are as low 5 below zero.
Expect the colder and drier air will continue to make inroads
farther east through the morning, although the most anomalous cold
remains in our western areas. HREF mean 925 millibar temperatures
bottom out at -23 Celsius in Adirondack western slopes, near the 1st
percentile; normally this would lead to highs struggling to rise
above 0F, but low level flow in this area will shift southwesterly
during the day to modify the air mass somewhat. As such, even in the
coldest areas highs will likely top out in the 10-15 range in New
York, and in Vermont highs will mainly be in the mid teens to low
20s. These temperatures are about 15 degrees below normal in
much of Vermont and closer to 20 degrees below normal in much of
northern New York.. Aside from some shallow moisture this
morning supporting flurries in the Adirondacks, northern Green
Mountains, highlands of the Northeast Kingdom, no precipitation
is anticipated. The cold and dry air will support temperatures
falling off quickly tonight until winds pick up, which as
typical when high pressure passes to our east will be primarily
at high elevation and in the wide valleys with most other spots
seeing temperatures reach their bottom for the night only when
clouds arrive from the west. Lowest wind chills through the
period will continue to be in the higher summits where
dangerously low wind chills below -20 will be likely through
midday with minor improvement through tonight.
KEY MESSAGE 2: A clipper system will approach our region tomorrow night
with its warm front providing forcing for a widespread light
snowfall. Onset for snow appears to be in the predawn hours which
will cause slippery travel and low visibility (likely between 1/2
mile and 1 mile) for the morning commute. Highest confidence of
impacts based on expected timing of steadier snow appears to be in
the St. Lawrence Valley, Adirondacks, and western/southern portions
of Vermont, including Addison, Orange, Rutland, and Windsor
counties. Snow during this event will be brief, generally
between 2 and 3 hours, with snowfall rates near a 1/2 inch per
hour.
Have tried to indicate a break in snow for most locations,
especially away from the mountains and influence of Lake
Ontario, during the late morning hours before snow showers
develop in the "warm sector" of the clipper. Convective allowing
models generally show scattered to numerous snow showers
developing out ahead of the cold front; a paintball chart of
reflectivity greater than 25 dbZ shows modest agreement in
timing of potential heavy snow showers and squalls during the
mid-afternoon to early evening hours, tied to an upper level
shortwave and some surface convergence. The snow squall
parameter values of 2 to 4 amidst 20 to 60 J/kg SBCAPE are ample
to at least have embedded snow squalls within clusters of snow
showers. Some models show some organization of linear
development that would be more significant for travel, with
intensification in the Champlain Valley during the evening
commute time. While greatest instability and frontal timing
generally supports highest likelihood of snow squalls in
northern New York, it appears favorable convergence and a pre-
frontal trough might compensate for less moisture and
instability farther east. Temperatures in the valleys will
likely be near freezing while road temperatures, given late
February solar angle, rise above freezing ahead of these snow
showers. Therefore, some snow squalls could have a flash freeze
potential in addition to gusty winds and low visibility.
Motorists planning travel Wednesday afternoon should keep an
eye on the forecast and prepare for rapidly changing weather conditions
if the ingredients come together.
Regardless of the convective activity, the cold front will pass
Wednesday night into Thursday morning with modest pressure rises
of about 1 millibar/hour as cooler air swings in from the west.
Without a northerly component to the wind, the air mass won`t
change too much behind the system as temperatures remain
seasonably cool into Thursday morning. Low temperatures will
mainly be in the teens following a day with highs in the low to
mid 30s.
KEY MESSAGE 3: A period of seasonable and mostly dry weather is
expected late this week as the region remains under the influence of
surface high pressure. High temperatures look to climb into the low
to mid 30s areawide. Model guidance continues to trend towards a
drier forecast Thursday night into Friday compared to previous runs,
with surface high pressure overhead, keeping most precipitation to
our south. As high pressure shifts eastward, strong southerly flow
across the region will bring much warmer temperatures to the region
for Saturday, with the current forecast showing high temperatures
climbing well above normal into the 40s. This warm up will be short-
lived, as a cold front looks to push across the region Saturday
night into Sunday, bringing some sharply colder temperatures and
scattered snow showers.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Through 00Z Wednesday...VFR conditions will give way to MVFR
for the large majority of the forecast area this evening into
the overnight hours. Winds shift to the NNW after a weak frontal
passage with ceilings lowering in response, especially along the
western slopes of the mountains. Flow will be blocked so MVFR
conditions will be possible at KBTV and KRUT as well, with lower
chances at KMPV. Light snow showers will be possible at KSLK,
generally 02z through 08z, with visibility around 3SM. IFR can`t
be ruled out during this time, but confidence not enough to
warrant mention in the TAF at this point. Winds remain N/NW 5-10
kt overnight with local gusts to near 20 kt, abating gradually
through the day Tuesday.
Outlook...
Wednesday: Mainly MVFR and IFR, with areas VFR possible. Likely
SN.
Wednesday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight
chance SN.
Thursday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Thursday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SN.
Friday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Friday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Saturday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. NO SIG WX.
&&
.EQUIPMENT...
The KMPV ASOS has suffered a communications failure. The issue
has been diagnosed, but there is currently no estimated time of
return to service. Terminal Aerodrome Forecasts will continue,
but amendments to those forecasts will be suspended.
NOAA Weather Radio station WXM-44, transmitting from Mt.
Ascutney, Vermont, on frequency 162.475 MHz is non- operational
at this time. NWS technicians have diagnosed the problem, but
repairs will likely not be able to occur for quite some time due
to circumstances beyond our control. Therefore, the time of
return to service is currently unknown. The following NOAA
Weather Radio transmitters may be able to provide service during
this outage: WWG 50 from Burke Mtn, VT at 162.425 MHz and WNG
546 from Hanover, NH at 162.525 MHz.
The Colchester Reef meteorological station is out of service.
This site is not serviced by the NWS and there isn`t an
estimated return to service at present. Please contact us if you
observe winds significantly deviating from the recreational
forecast.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.
&&
$$
WHAT HAS CHANGED...Kutikoff
DISCUSSION...Kremer/Kutikoff
AVIATION...Kremer
EQUIPMENT...NWS BTV
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