056
FXUS61 KBTV 191153
AFDBTV
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
653 AM EST Wed Nov 19 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
Clear and calm conditions will continue today and into tomorrow as
high pressure persists overhead. Some chances for showers returning
Friday in association with a fast moving front. Seasonable late
November conditions will resume for the rest of the weekend followed
by another quick moving system on Monday that will be the start
of several chances for precipitation next week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 653 AM EST Wednesday...Temperatures are nearly 10 to 20
degrees below normal in portions of the Adirondacks and central
Vermont as strong radiational cooling is taking place this
morning. Saranac Lake has reached as low as 3F this morning,
which at a quick glance at the rest of the country, is the
coldest point in the lower 48. Temperatures areawide are into
the teens to near 20, which will play a role in our highs today
given we are quite low to start the day. Some valley freezing
fog developed overnight in portions of the Adirondacks,
Connecticut River Valley, and near Montpelier. The freezing fog
will be fairly short lived and limited spatially. Morning
commuters may have to scrape some frost or ice off their
windshields this morning, but no additional impacts are
expected. Lower clouds have also pushed into the St. Lawrence
Valley this morning which should remain for at least a few hours
before lifting by late this morning as temperatures slowly
rise.
Previous Discussion...High pressure overhead today will continue a
recent dry and seasonably cool trend. General zonal flow will keep
temperatures today relatively seasonable with highs in the mid to
upper 30s with some low 40s across southern Vermont. Westerly winds
will be light only up to 5 mph. While not quite as clear as
yesterday, numerous breaks in the clouds will allow most of the area
to be mostly sunny with a few terrain driven cumulus over the
adirondacks and northern Greens. The best chance for widespread blue
sky will be across portions of Rutland and Windsor Counties in
Vermont. While some moisture associated with a transient low moves
across the Mid-Atlantic this morning and afternoon, northerly flow
aloft will keep any shower activity well to our south out of the
region. Clouds will be on the increase tonight as our flow pattern
becomes a little more southwesterly drawing in some higher clouds
from a developing weak system across the Central Plains. Another
somewhat decent setup for radiative cooling looks possible tonight
with calm winds. However, some increased cloud cover will limit
cooling to the levels we will see this morning. Albeit tonights lows
will fall into the mid to upper teens to low 20s. Thursday will be
more cloudy than today with a few breaks possible in southern
Vermont late Thursday. Temperatures Thursday will continue to be on
the rise with highs in the upper 30s to low 40s.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 100 AM EST Wednesday...Cloud cover associated with an
approaching fast moving frontal system will keep temperatures
Thursday night from falling too far with values in the low to mid
20s and near 30 in the Champlain Valley. Precipitation chances will
increase by sunrise Friday morning. With temperatures still
beginning to rebound with weak diurnal heating, some of the
precipitation may initially fall as snow, especially in the
mountains. A wintry mix cannot be ruled out as some global models
still show model soundings that fluctuate about the 0C line, and
depict some glaze potential in the Adirondacks Friday morning. Any
wintry precipitation will solely be driven by surface temperatures
as temperatures aloft will be warming above 0C with waa from the
southwest. As warm air surges north, any showers will quickly change
over to all rain through the day Friday. It will take a bit more
time for the mountains to fully switch over, however, snow level
forecasts show even mountain summits may change over to all rain for
a period of time. A split in the jet stream will help to limit the
overall precipitation amounts Friday, with a more scattered feel to
the precipitation. A high-PoP, low QPF setup looks more reasonable
than a full widespread wetting rain. The bulk of the moisture looks
to be wrapped up into a developing low across the Mid-Atlantic in
Virginia and Maryland where a secondary jet streak looks more
favorable. Showers will begin to quickly taper off and become more
confined to the upslope regions and Northeast Kingdom by late
Friday.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 100 AM EST Wednesday...Unremarkable weather is expected through
this period associated with neutral teleconnections and a split
upper air pattern with open waves that will limit moisture or
temperature advection. Seasonably cold air, modest winds, and at
least partial sunshine, should support outdoor activities, such as
early winter season sports. Broad cyclonic flow will be present, but
unlike last week shortwaves will mainly stay well to our north. When
they graze our area, some high elevation snow showers and valley
rain showers will become possible, with slightly greater chances
late Sunday and again Monday night. Temperatures will trend slightly
warmer each day from Saturday through Monday, with highs edging from
slightly below to slightly above normal for this time of year.
Temperatures are relatively uncertain for Tuesday, although general
consensus is for highs coming in a little lower than on Monday. The
cooler conditions would probably lead to slightly higher chances for
snow showers than any other day of this period. Relatedly,
probabilities for only an inch of snowfall from Friday night through
Monday evening is as high as 40% in the northern Green Mountain
summits, and is about the same or slightly greater in just the
Monday night to Tuesday evening period.
The more interesting weather early next week will be over the
southern portion of the US, as a closed low over the Southwest
ejects eastward with Gulf response and an intensifying jet streak
that should help intensify a low pressure system to our south. As
that system moves northeastward, it will become our next chance for
significant weather, likely in the form of rain given lack of polar
air interaction, possibly as early as Tuesday night.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Through 12Z Thursday...Primary issue is morning fog and low
stratus affecting MPV and MSS, and possibly SLK, early this
morning. The eastward advection of a 200 to 500 foot cloud
layer from the St. Lawrence River Valley has overspread MSS with
duration potentially a few hours before it thins enough to finally
mix out. It is unclear how this pattern will affect SLK where a
fog bank has been present causing intervals of LIFR but where
conditions are currently VFR, but anticipate at least a low
chance of additional fog at the terminal. Finally, at MPV a more
typical radiation fog is in place and climatology would suggest
a burn off time between 14 and 15Z. However, leaned towards a
somewhat faster improvement time considering how late in the
night the fog developed. Beyond the localized fog/low stratus,
mainly VFR conditions will continue through the period with high
pressure and associated light winds, generally west/northwest,
and mainly terrain driven after 21Z. Likelihood of more fog
tonight is lower with more cloud cover expected to roll in from
the west, but greatest at SLK (55-74% chance of at least an
interval of IFR conditions between about 00Z and 06Z).
Outlook...
Thursday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Thursday Night: VFR. Chance RA, Chance SN.
Friday: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. Chance SHRA.
Friday Night: Mainly MVFR, with areas IFR possible. Chance SHRA.
Saturday: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. NO SIG WX.
Saturday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. NO SIG WX.
Sunday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight chance SHRA,
Slight chance SHSN.
&&
.EQUIPMENT...
NOAA Weather Radio station WXM-44, transmitting from Mt.
Ascutney, Vermont, on frequency 162.475 MHz is non-operational
at this time. NWS technicians have diagnosed the problem, but
repairs will likely not be able to occur for quite some time due
to circumstances beyond our control. Therefore, the time of
return to service is currently unknown. The following NOAA
Weather Radio transmitters may be able to provide service during
this outage: WWG 50 from Burke Mtn, VT at 162.425 MHz and WNG
546 from Hanover, NH at 162.525 MHz.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Danzig
NEAR TERM...Danzig
SHORT TERM...Danzig
LONG TERM...Kutikoff
AVIATION...Kutikoff
EQUIPMENT...Team BTV
|
