239
FXUS61 KBTV 142318
AFDBTV
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
718 PM EDT Sat Mar 14 2026
.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
As of 243 PM EDT Saturday...
High Wind Watch issued for portions of northern NY from 00z Sunday
until 00z Tuesday.
&&
.KEY MESSAGES...
As of 243 PM EDT Saturday...
1. High Wind Watch for portions of northern NY from 00z Monday
until 00z Tuesday for potential gusts up to 60 mph and scattered
power outages possible.
2. Pockets of freezing rain expected east of the Green late
Sunday evening into Monday, which could cause areas of slick travel
during the Monday morning commute.
3. A strong cold front will bring very changeable conditions
Monday night into Tuesday, with rapidly falling temperatures and
rain turning to snow. Travel impacts due to flash freeze and/or
black ice are possible. River rises likely but flooding not
anticipated at this time.
4. Seasonable weather expected for the latter half of next
week, with a few chances for showers.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
As of 243 PM EDT Saturday...
Rest of Today...NWS radar imagery is showing a rapid development of
snow showers along the Western Slopes this aftn with dBZ returns in
the 30 to 35 range. Per latest webcams at Nashville and Westford a
quick coat to 1 inch or 2 of snow has occurred on grassy surfaces.
These instability driven snow showers along a sfc cold frnt wl
continue for several more hours as they slowly move thru
central/northern VT. The snow squall parameter still indicates
values in the 2 to 5 range, supporting localized heavier snow
showers or embedded snow squalls. In addition, as winds shift to
the west/northwest behind the boundary a period of upslope snow
showers wl lingering into the evening hours. Localized snowfall
of 1 to 3 inches possible with some higher amounts possible
above 1500 feet near the Green Mountain Spine. Some slick travel
is possible in the heavier convective snow elements.
KEY MESSAGE 1: A powerful 980mb low pres is expected to move
from the central MS River Valley into the central Great Lakes by
12z Monday with a strengthening 925mb to 850mb wind field acrs
our cwa. A very challenging fcst in regards to mixing, wind
direction and timing of strongest winds. The greatest confidence
of wind gusts up to 60 mph is acrs the northern Dacks from near
Malone to Ellenburg, while 35 to 50 mph wind gusts are possible
along the western slopes and portions of the CPV. Wind advisory
wl likely be needed outside the watch to cover this potential.
As 980mb low pres lifts acrs the central Great Lakes multiple 925mb
to 850mb jet cores impact our cwa from 00z Monday thru 00z Tues. The
first core is roughly btwn 00z and 09z Monday, with progged 925mb
winds of 70 to 75 knots along the northern Dacks, while 850mb winds
are 75 to 80 knots per latest 12z NAM3KM. RAP sounding data near
Malone indicates top of the mixed layer winds of 65 knots, which
supports localized gusts in the 55 to 65 mph range. Meanwhile, a
secondary maximum wind gust threat is possible along the western
slopes, where progged 925mb winds are 60 to 65 knots, but directly
is a bit southerly to support max mixing. In addition, expanding
precip on southerly flow may help to stabilize boundary layer during
maximum low level jet acrs parts of VT. Initial thoughts is that a
wind advisory wl likely be needed for the western slopes and
northern CPV.
Meanwhile, as a sharp sfc cold frnt associated with low pres
approaches our cwa late Monday aftn, progged southerly 850mb
wind fields restrengthen btwn 70 and 85 knots, especially in
VT. Additional gusty winds are likely, especially with deeper
mixing profiles with temps warming into the upper 50s to mid 60s
on Monday aftn. Southerly winds would be strongest acrs the
northern/central CPV and midslope/ridges of central/northern VT.
Some question with regards to mixing over the frozen/cooler
Lake Champlain waters on Monday aftn. Progged 925mb temps surge
btwn 12-14C on Monday aftn, should support highs near 70F at
Malone, 65F at BTV and mid/upper 50s east of the Greens, where
low level maritime airmass maybe hard to dislodge.
KEY MESSAGE 2: The combination of developing southerly moisture
advection btwn 850mb and 500mb and low level southeasterly Atlantic
moisture advection wl produce a period of light rain with pockets of
freezing rain possible on Sunday night into Monday morning. Low lvl
cold air wl remain trapped in the deeper/protected valleys of VT,
where bl temps wl hover btwn 29-32F, supporting the light freezing
rain potential. Any ice accumulation wl be <0.10" and travel impacts
should be localized. A sps or winter wx advisory wl probably be
needed to coverage this potential on Sunday night into Monday
morning with some impacts to the AM commute possible.
KEY MESSAGE 3: Monday`s low pressure system will continue to lift up to
our west and eventually pass by to our north Monday night, dragging
a strong cold front along in its wake. While strong south winds and
very mild temperatures will exist ahead of the front, conditions
will change very quickly as the front moves through. Temperatures
will plummet some 15-20 degrees with the frontal passage, quickly
changing rain over to snow. There could be a period of wintry mix of
snow, sleet, and freezing rain during the transition, but expect
this will be fairly brief and transient in nature. Widespread snow
will exit by around daybreak Tuesday, but expect mountain snow
showers to redevelop during the day, mainly in the favored upslope
areas of the northern Adirondacks and western slopes of the Green
Mountains. Most areas will get an inch or less of snow accumulation,
though the northern mountains will see more like 2-4 inches or so.
Still, wet roads and other surfaces could freeze overnight Monday
night as temperatures drop below freezing, resulting in a layer of
ice below any snow accumulation. Hence travel could be hazardous,
including for the Tuesday morning commute. Because rain will be
relatively short lived due to the fast forward motion of the cold
front, don`t anticipate a whole lot of liquid precipitation with
this system. And since we`ve lost a lot of our snowpack, don`t
anticipate any flooding issues at this time. However, we`ll still
need to watch for any ice movement/jams on waterways in the
Northeast Kingdom and far northern NY.
Winds will also be a concern and could add to travel woes. Although
not as strong as what we`ll see on Monday, winds will still quite
gusty Monday night and Tuesday, from the west/southwest. This could
serve to further lower visibilities in any snow, especially as
ratios increase later Monday night into Tuesday morning. Gusts of 25
to 35 mph are expected. Highs will only be in the 20s Tuesday, so
wind chills will definitely be on the cold side, in the single
digits and teens.
KEY MESSAGE 4: Although Wednesday will be cold, temperatures should
gradually increase through the end of next week, with highs in the
30s and 40s and lows in the teens and 20s by the weekend. High
pressure will give us a couple of dry days mid week, but then shower
chances increase as a couple of upper shortwave troughs scoot
through the nearly zonal flow aloft. There`s still some uncertainty
with the timing of these systems, so have stayed close to WPC`s
forecast for Wednesday and beyond.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Through 00Z Monday...Snow showers have ended for most of the area.
The exceptions are MPV and EFK, which could see snow bring lingering
IFR conditions through 03z. Otherwise, ceilings will remain MVFR or
better overnight. The gusty winds we`ve seen throughout the day will
also be tailing off in the next couple of hours. Snow showers could
build back in during the morning hours Sunday, bringing the
potential for lower visibilities along with them.
Outlook...
Sunday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Strong winds
with gusts to 40 kt. Chance RA, Chance FZRA.
Monday: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Windy with gusts to
35 kt. Likely RA, Chance SHRA.
Monday Night: Mainly MVFR, with areas IFR possible. Windy with
gusts to 35 kt. Definite RA, Likely SN.
Tuesday: VFR. Windy with gusts to 35 kt. Slight chance SHSN.
Tuesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday Night: VFR. Slight chance SN.
Thursday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight chance RA,
Slight chance SN.
&&
.EQUIPMENT...
The Colchester Reef meteorological station is out of service.
This site is not serviced by the NWS and there isn`t an
estimated return to service at present. Please contact us if you
observe winds significantly deviating from the recreational
forecast.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...High Wind Watch from Sunday evening through Monday evening for
NYZ027-030-031-034.
&&
$$
WHAT HAS CHANGED...Taber
DISCUSSION...Taber/Hastings
AVIATION...Langbauer
EQUIPMENT...NWS BTV
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