042
FXUS61 KBTV 252335
AFDBTV
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
735 PM EDT Thu Jun 25 2026
.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
As of 232 PM EDT Thursday...
The Marginal Risk for Severe Weather for tomorrow has been
expanded northward to the International Border in Vermont.
Otherwise, no significant changes were made to the forecast at
this time.
&&
.KEY MESSAGES...
As of 232 PM EDT Thursday...
1. Widespread showers will move through the region tonight with
chances for thunderstorms by the early afternoon tomorrow. A strong
thunderstorm or two may be possible.
2. Daily afternoon chances for showers and thunderstorms,
mainly over the Adirondacks and spine of the Greens will be possible
into the weekend. Temperatures will begin to steadily climb through
the weekend.
3. Heat and humidity will gradually build early next week,
however significant heat is not expected at this time. Isolated or
scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
As of 232 PM EDT Thursday...
KEY MESSAGE 1: A few pop up garden variety showers with an isolated
rumble of thunder will continue this afternoon, before waining this
evening. Showers may bubble over the Adirondacks and northern spine
of the Greens. More widespread rain will overspread the region
beyond midnight tonight as an upper low over southern Quebec and
associated surface low over the Ohio Valley slide east. A warm front
will lift north through the overnight period tonight with a swath of
rain, focused over Vermont. The HREF model depicts pockets of
heavier rain between 0.25-0.5 inch/hour rates embedded in this swath
of rain. The warm front and associated precipitation should lift
north of the area by sunrise with some lingering clouds and light
showers trailing behind. As the more stratiform rain comes to an
end, there should be a break in the precipitation for an hour or two
before precipitation activity transitions to more convective. A cold
front will begin to sweep into the area from the west with decent
SBCAPE to 500-1500J/kg, and 0-6km bulk shear to around 35 kts. The
question remains how much clearing there will be between the morning
rain the approach of the cold front. As is usual in the North
Country, expectations are that there will likely be some convective
debris or lingering mid to upper level clouds trailing the morning
rain which could limit more widespread clearing and larger
instability parameters. However, under more clearing conditions,
some shower activity may grow vertical enough to garner thunder
activity. Should any storms become entrenched in the environment,
conditions may be favorable for a stronger thunderstorm or two. The
Storm Prediction Center has expanded the Marginal Risk (level 1 of
5) for severe weather north to the International Border in Vermont
and the Champlain Valley for tomorrow. The main threats from
these thunderstorms will be localized damaging winds and some
isolated large hail. Confidence in damaging winds and large hail
is relatively low at this time however. 12Z CAMs have been
fairly stable developing thunderstorms between 12-2 PM tomorrow
across the Champlain Valley with cells drifting eastward into
the central and northern Greens by the mid afternoon.
Limitations tomorrow will be 1) the question of clearing post
the morning rain; 2) Meager mid level lapse rates aloft which
may act as a capping mechanism to deeper convection, and 3)
increasing dry air aloft which will may lead to dry air
entrainment and less deep moist convection. Showers and any
thunderstorm activity looks to move out the area by 7-8 PM
tomorrow. Pwats tomorrow will be lower than recent events only
to an inch or inch and a quarter which which will be unlikely to
cause many flooding concerns. Current rainfall totals will be
maximized over southern Vermont and the central Greens where up
to an inch will be possible. Elsewhere a quarter to three
quarters of an inch will be possible, with lesser amounts in the
southern St. Lawrence Valley. Locally higher amounts may be
possible under any thunderstorms. Most of the rain from this
system will occur tonight into early tomorrow morning.
KEY MESSAGE 2: Behind our system tomorrow, some river valley fog
may be possible Friday night as dewpoints will remain elevated
around 60 degrees. Into the weekend, broad upper level troughing
will keep shower chances present in the afternoons. Diurnally
driven terrain showers and embedded isolated thunderstorms will
be possible both Saturday and Sunday afternoons, mainly over the
Adirondacks and spine of the Greens. Best chances will be on
Saturday. These showers may drift briefly into the Champlain
Valley or eastern Vermont by the mid to later afternoons, but
will likely weaken as they become detached from better
convergence and mesoscale forcing. Rainfall with these showers
will be light to a few hundreths to a tenth under any more
developed showers. Any afternoon shower activity will wain
after sunset with the loss of diurnal heating. Temperatures will
begin a steady warmup leading into next week. Highs this
weekend will rise from the mid to upper 70s Saturday to the
upper 70s to low 80s by Sunday. Humidity will also linger with
dewpoints in the low 60s, keeping overnight lows relatively warm
into the upper 50s to low 60s.
KEY MESSAGE 3: Summertime heat and humidity is expected to build for
the beginning of next week, with high pressure centered over the
Ohio Valley slowly nudging into the region. High temperatures for
Monday look to be in the mid to upper 80s, with light light winds
and mostly clear skies under the influence of surface ridging.
Beyond Monday the forecast becomes a little more uncertain given the
potential for cloud cover and thunderstorm chances, which will
influence how warm afternoon high temperatures are able to climb.
The current forecast shows a warming trend through the middle of
the week, with temperatures warming into the upper 80s and possibly
the lower 90s by Wednesday. Despite the uncertainty, the risk of
significant heat remains low compared to our south and west with the
upcoming weather pattern. Although significant heat is not expected,
it is good to remember to stay hydrate and take frequent breaks if
working outdoors during warm temperatures. Dewpoints look to
increase towards the middle of the week, making it increasingly
humid as the week progresses, which will aid in the possibility of
thunderstorm development.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Through 00Z Saturday...Showers are spreading southwest to
northeast as evident on radar and surface observations. However,
dry surface air has been slow to modify keeping conditions VFR.
Therefore, have kept VFR conditions longer with 30% chance of
MVFR CIG/VIS 03-06Z for most terminals with more pervasive CIG
degradation after 06Z. Some IFR possible for MPV/SLK/EFK, but
will depend on how much saturation occurs over the next 3-6
hours. CIGs improve after 12-15Z with more isolated shower
chances tomorrow. Best chances of showers/thunderstorms will be
16-21Z as a front sweeps west to east with surface winds turning
westerly.
Outlook...
Friday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHRA, Patchy BR.
Saturday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA.
Saturday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Sunday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA.
Sunday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Monday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Monday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.
&&
$$
WHAT HAS CHANGED...Danzig
DISCUSSION...Kremer/Danzig
AVIATION...Boyd/Kremer
|
