014
FXUS61 KBTV 251810
AFDBTV
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
110 PM EST Thu Dec 25 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
Scattered snow showers and brisk northwest winds will continue this
afternoon before gradually winding down this evening into the
overnight. Friday will be sharply colder following a frontal
passage, and the day will start with temperatures in the single
digits above and below zero in the morning. The next impactful
system will arrive Sunday night and Monday with the potential for
wintry mixed precipitation.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 110 PM EST Thursday...The cold front has made its way
completely across our forecast area this afternoon, as indicated by
brisk northwest winds gusting to 25- 30 mph. Isolated to scattered
snow showers will continue through the afternoon as well, especially
on the favored western upslope sides of the Adirondacks/Greens.
Several CAMs also indicate a streamer of snow will develop downwind
of Lake Champlain. While this band of snow will likely waver east
and west a bit through the evening hours, it looks to be mostly
focused from South Burlington toward Hinesburg and down into the
higher elevations of eastern Addison County. Another inch or two of
accumulation will be possible where this band sets up, especially on
the western slopes into the higher terrain of the Green Mountains.
Otherwise, additional snow accumulations this afternoon into the
evening will be minimal, an inch or less. Still, this will be enough
to make roads slippery, and there could be patchy blowing snow as
well, so please use caution if you`re traveling on this holiday.
A narrow ridge of high pressure will briefly build into the region
tonight and Friday, ending showers, lessening winds, and allowing
cloud cover to decrease. Hence expect a fairly good setup for
radiational cooling, especially with a fresh snowpack. Lows tonight
will be in the -15F to +5F range, coldest in the Adirondacks and
Northeast Kingdom. Luckily winds will have mostly died off by Friday
morning, but wind chills will still be well below zero in many
places. This cold will persist through the day on Friday; continuing
cold air advection will keep highs only in the single digits and
teens above zero.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
As of 110 PM EST Thursday...Models continue their back and forth with
the clipper system for Friday night-Saturday. After moving north,
the 12z NAM shifted back south, and the 12z GFS/CMC and the 00z
ECWMF all seem to line up fairly well, tracking the low across the
lower Great Lakes into PA and toward the NJ or Delmarva coast. This
will put us right on the northern fringes of the snow. There will be
dry air in place, which will also serve to limit snow potential as
it will take a while for the column to moisten enough for
precipitation to reach the ground. Anticipate snow will hold off
until late Friday evening, spreading into northern NY toward the
Champlain Valley overnight. It then looks to shunt southward
Saturday morning as the low quickly moves offshore. There will
likely be a tight snowfall gradient stretching northwest/southeast
through our forecast area. Note that the 13z run of the NBM, which
includes the more northern 06z NAM, indicates the potential for
snowfall amounts greater than 4 inches is only around 30% at best
right along the southern/western fringes of our forecast area,
southwest of a line from roughly Gouverneur NY to Ticonderoga NY to
Rutland VT to Springfield VT, quickly dropping to less than 5% as
you head northeast from that line. With the southward trend in the
12z guidance, tried to limit likely/categorical PoPs to the
southwestern 1/3 of our forecast area, with chance/slight chance for
the far northern Adirondacks/Champlain Valley and into central VT,
and little to no snow for the Northeast Kingdom. A blend of the
deterministic models gives snowfall amounts of 1 to 2.5 inches south
of a Massena NY to Burlington VT to White River Junction line, with
1 inch or less heading toward the international border. This will
need to be refined by later shifts heading forward, especially since
with the tight gradient, a slight shift in storm track could mean
the difference between no snow and a few/several inches of snow.
Regardless, expect snow will be pulling away to the south Saturday
morning, with dry weather by Saturday afternoon and into the night.
It`ll be warmer than Friday, with highs in the mid teens to mid 20s.
Increasing cloud cover will keep Saturday night warmer than tonight,
though still cold with most places dropping into the positive single
digits for overnight lows.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 110 PM EST Thursday...As previous forecaster stated... We remain
on track to see a classic setup for transient, freezing rain as an
intensifying low pressure system tracks to our west with a
retreating, cool high pressure system to our east. There is an
increasing consensus of a mainly freezing rain/rain scenario Sunday
night into Monday until the low pressure system passes to our
northeast and winds shift westerly. I can`t rule out a brief period
of -sn/-ip at the onset in NE VT but quickly changing to -fzra.
Currently...it looks like pcpn will hold off until ard/aft 00z Mon
in northern NY and after 03z in VT.
Winter Weather Advisories are likely going to be needed areawide for
Sunday night-early Monday. Preliminary thoughts for ice amounts in
the range of 0.1" to 0.25" of flat ice with perhaps locally up to
0.5". There will be some locations in southeastern St. Lawrence
County that may see less due to more warming at low-levels.
Travel impacts are expected due to ice covered, slippery roads with
a low chance of utility impacts but still worth monitoring the next
few days.
SFC low and front move through the area Monday afternoon with
falling temperatures in increasing cold WNW winds for ptype to
changeover to snow showers with the main snow shower activity being
across northern areas and favorable WNW mountains Monday night-
Tuesday.
A weak shortwave and surface reflection are expected Wednesday with
more snow showers that may linger into New Years Eve plans. Nothing
to impactful but worth monitoring if traveling is in your plans.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Through 12Z Friday...It remains a somewhat difficult forecast
for northern portions of the airspace with regards to
operational impacts early in the period ahead of an approaching
cold front. Following a brief respite of steady snow, another
batch of snow near the International Border at 12Z, on the
leading edge of the front, will move southward bringing at least
temporary IFR conditions to most terminals through 15Z. Aside
from the snow, MVFR conditions are expected through the rest of
the period driven by ceilings. A shallow, post-frontal stratus
layer is expected for much of the period, with scattering first
at MSS and much later at other sites, based on model guidance
and upstream observations with cloud bases mainly in the
1000-2000 foot range.
Light south/southwest winds are currently in place, as well as
probable wind shear conditions at MPV/SLK/EFK/RUT. As the cold
front passes we will see primarily northwest winds of 5-10 knots
by 16Z with lack of LLWS. Winds will become gusty with 20-25
knots common, only diminishing slightly at most sites after 06Z.
Outlook...
Friday Night: VFR. Chance SN.
Saturday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Saturday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Sunday: VFR. Slight chance FZRA.
Sunday Night: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Definite FZRA.
Monday: Mainly IFR, with areas MVFR possible. Windy with gusts to
30 kt. Definite SHRA, Definite SHSN, Definite RA, Definite FZRA.
Monday Night: Mainly MVFR and IFR, with local VFR possible. Windy
with gusts to 30 kt. Likely SHSN.
Tuesday: VFR. Chance SHSN.
&&
.MARINE...
Behind a cold front, increasingly deep mixing of colder air will
result in a long duration of strong northwest winds across the
lake with 20-25 knot winds and gusts to 30 knots common late
this morning and into the night. Maximum wave height of 3 to 6
feet over the broad waters and 2 to 4 feet in on the inland sea
can be expected.
&&
.EQUIPMENT...
NOAA Weather Radio station WXM-44, transmitting from Mt.
Ascutney, Vermont, on frequency 162.475 MHz is non-operational
at this time. NWS technicians have diagnosed the problem, but
repairs will likely not be able to occur for quite some time due
to circumstances beyond our control. Therefore, the time of
return to service is currently unknown. The following NOAA
Weather Radio transmitters may be able to provide service during
this outage: WWG 50 from Burke Mtn, VT at 162.425 MHz and WNG
546 from Hanover, NH at 162.525 MHz.
The Colchester Reef meteorological station is out of service.
This site is not serviced by the NWS and there isn`t an
estimated return to service at present. Use extra caution when
navigating the broad waters of Lake Champlain. Please contact us
if you observe winds significantly deviating from the
recreational forecast.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Hastings
NEAR TERM...Hastings
SHORT TERM...Hastings
LONG TERM...SLW
AVIATION...Kutikoff
MARINE...Kutikoff
EQUIPMENT...Team BTV
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