628
FXUS61 KBTV 031111
AFDBTV
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
711 AM EDT Fri Apr 3 2026
.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
As of 335 AM EDT Friday...Many scattered showers are producing
thunder this morning, so chances of thunderstorms has increased.
&&
.KEY MESSAGES...
As of 335 AM EDT Friday...
1. A light wintry mix will continue this morning in the Green
Mountains and points east, with slick travel likely mainly above
1000 feet elevation and secondary roads.
2. Unseasonably warm conditions expected this afternoon. As the
warmup occurs, gusty south winds ranging from 30 to 45 MPH are
expected in much of northern New York and northern Vermont along
with scattered showers and a few thunderstorms.
3. Another storm system will bring widespread rain and
localized strong winds Saturday night into Sunday. Much cooler
conditions will filter into the region behind this system with a
chance for elevationally dependent snow showers.
4. Cooler and quieter stretch of weather expected from Monday
night through Wednesday night, then more showery with
temperatures closer to seasonal normals towards the end of the
week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
As of 411 AM EDT Friday...
KEY MESSAGE 1: A fascinating precipitation type conundrum
occurred overnight with very moist and cold air near the ground
supporting light snow across much of central and eastern
Vermont. As clouds grow taller again with showers moving in from
the west, precipitation type should return to rain and thereby
produce pockets of freezing rain where temperatures are in the
upper 20s to low 30s. It is a complex ice accretion scenario
where convective precipitation does not lend itself to efficient
icing with greater runoff, but temperatures early this morning
have been on the low side of model guidance so there is some
room for slight warming to still see at least a glaze of ice
fall where these showers track. Radar trends put most of these
showers from near Killington and points north. Temperatures have
largely been elevationally dependent with almost all sub-
freezing locations above 1000 feet, and especially 1500 feet, so
risk of winter weather impacts in the valleys is minimal.
Conditions should improve by 10 AM as the inversion height
sharply lowers and near surface temperatures slowly rise.
KEY MESSAGE 2: Showers with embedded thunder have been racing
east-northeastward on the nose of a strong 850 millibar jet,
supporting elevated instability and deep moisture transport. The
risk of thunder is expected to peter out as the morning
progresses with reduced MUCAPE. Will note the SPC HREF-
calibrated thunder risk was under 10% where we have seen thunder
early today, so it would not be surprising if showers continue
be capable of producing thunder through about 10 AM. After that
time, a punch of drier mid-level air will work its way into the
region taking a sledgehammer to the elevated CAPE. A few
afternoon/evening showers ahead of the system`s cold front will
be possible but look less substantial than this morning`s
activity; PoPs are largely 15 to 30% for this timeframe.
The main story aside from the thunderstorm risk will be the
gusty south winds. For the northern Champlain Valley these winds
will probably peak this morning, while increasing this
afternoon in the St. Lawrence Valley. While not particularly
strong, gusts will probably reach the 40 to 45 MPH range with a
few instances near 50 MPH near Lake Champlain. Other portions of
northern Vermont and the Adirondacks could also see 35 to 40
MPH gusts through the afternoon ahead of the cold front, with
post-frontal winds tonight out of the west not as strong as low
pressure passing to our north is progged to weaken with time.
KEY MESSAGE 3: Forecast confidence remains high that widespread
rain will fall Saturday night into Sunday morning along a
stronger cold front. Less certain is the magnitude of winds with
the associated low level jet. Model soundings show a stout
inversion that would make it difficult to see much of the winds
aloft make it to the surface aside from mountaintops during this
period. Greatest risk for strong winds (some gusts near or
above 50 MPH) would be in the north facing slopes of the
Adirondacks such as near Malone and Ellenburg. Rainfall remains
fairly moderate with only a narrow plume of anomalous moisture
that moves steadily towards the east. Strong surface convergence
and divergence aloft will promote a large area of rain that
will keep chances of rain going for a fairly long time (roughly
12 to 18 hours), but most of the event will feature light rain.
Behind the cold front as it passes Sunday afternoon, a wintry
pattern will set up with a deep upper trough building by Monday
morning. There are somewhat mixed signals on forcing for
precipitation so for now we are light on details. Overall, there
is potential for a combination of lake-effect and upslope snow
showers on Monday, which would mainly impact higher elevations
with boundary layer temperatures still a bit warm for snow in
the valleys.
KEY MESSAGE 4: High pressure will finally shift east from the
Great Lakes bringing an end to any lingering snow showers from
Monday night through Wednesday night. Temperatures will trend a
bit cooler than seasonal normals during this timeframe. High
temperatures will be in the 30s and 40s, with overnight lows
dipping into the 20s. With the high pressure, temperatures will
trend towards normal to above normal by mid to late week with
some showers chances by later next week. Surface high will get
suppressed to our south Thursday into Friday, and allowing next
chance for showers as a low passes north of the Great Lakes.
Maximum temperatures will be back up into the 50s on Thu and Fri
of next week.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Through 12Z Saturday...LLWS and gusty surface winds will be the
main aviation threat this forecast period with some IFR/MVFR
CIGs being the secondary threat. We also have some areas of
mixed precipitation this morning, but should change to all rain
shortly. A low level jet slowly moves through the region with
60kts in the 2000-5000ft layer resulting in both speed and
directional shear promoting hazardous flying conditions.
Conditions range from VFR down to IFR currently with ceilings
and visibilities varying from one site to another. SFC winds
will continue to strengthen throughout the TAF period, with
gusts of 20 to 40 knots possible before speeds begin to taper
down after 22Z.
Outlook...
Saturday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA.
Saturday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Definite
SHRA.
Sunday: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. Definite SHRA.
Sunday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Slight chance
SHSN.
Monday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Slight chance SHSN.
Monday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight chance
SHSN.
Tuesday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Slight chance
SHSN.
&&
.EQUIPMENT...
The Colchester Reef meteorological station is out of service.
This site is not serviced by the NWS. An estimated return to
service is May 1st. Please contact us if you observe winds
significantly deviating from the recreational forecast.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...Winter Weather Advisory until 10 AM EDT this morning for
VTZ003-004-006>008-010-018>021.
NY...None.
&&
$$
WHAT HAS CHANGED...Kutikoff
DISCUSSION...Kutikoff/Neiles
AVIATION...Neiles
EQUIPMENT...NWS BTV
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