619
FXUS61 KBTV 110054
AFDBTV
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
854 PM EDT Tue Mar 10 2026
.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
As of 334 PM EDT Tuesday...
Ice amounts/duration of freezing rain increased in northern St.
Lawrence Valley for tomorrow. Winds and wind gusts have
increased for early Thursday, with potential for a short period
of strong winds.
&&
.KEY MESSAGES...
As of 334 PM EDT Tuesday...
1. The threat of ice jam flooding will continue through
Wednesday night as mild temperatures keep snowmelt runoff flowing
into rivers. Open water flooding is also possible later Wednesday
through Thursday.
2. A temperature battleground will develop tonight as much
colder air infiltrates northern valleys, especially the St.
Lawrence and Champlain Valley. Greatest likelihood of
accumulating freezing rain remains near and north of the Route
11 corridor in northern New York, although patchy freezing rain
will be possible farther south tomorrow morning.
3. Westerly winds will usher in much colder weather Thursday
morning areawide as a cold front passes through. Difficult travel,
especially during the morning commute, could result from a
combination of gusty and locally strong west winds, snow
showers, and sharply falling temperatures that could freeze standing
water.
4. An active weather pattern will bring multiple rounds of
precipitation Saturday onward.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
As of 334 PM EDT Tuesday...
KEY MESSAGE 1: No significant changes in thinking for the overall flood
threat for the next 24-48 hours. After one Flash Flood Warning for
the Saranac Lake in Morrisonville and a couple of extensions of
other warnings for ice jam flooding earlier today, things are
currently quiet early this afternoon. However, very mild
temperatures (72F here at BTV!) are likely contributing to
ample snowmelt, which will continue to flow into area rivers and
streams. Therefore, we would expect rivers to start rising
again soon if they are not already, and likely continue into at
least the first part of the overnight. Temperatures will fall to
near or below freezing later tonight in the northern Champlain
and St Lawrence Valleys and northern Adirondacks though, which
will help slow melt by Wednesday morning. Still, wouldn`t be
surprised to see further ice movement and possible ice
jams/flooding overnight.
While the bulk of the area will then warm back up into the
50s and 60s tomorrow, the St Lawrence Valley and eastern VT will
likely remain in the 30s due to east/northeast winds keeping the
cold air wedged in. This too will limit snowmelt during the day
tomorrow. So flows on northern and eastern rivers may recede
somewhat, while central/southern waterways will continue to have
snowmelt across their basins. In addition, showers will develop
tonight and become fairly widespread Wednesday into Wednesday night,
and this too will add to the runoff. So further rises and ice
movement/jams are possible. In fact, wouldn`t be surprised to see
ice flush out completely of some rivers and smaller streams. For
some of those waterways, such as Otter Creek, open water flooding
will still be possible even once the ice is gone. Should this occur,
peak flows should occur sometime Thursday, depending on the
waterway.
Whether it`s ice jam flooding or open water flooding, we strongly
urge everyone to remain cautious along area waterways. River ice can
break up very suddenly, and water can rise rapidly if jams do occur.
River ice is very unstable and it is absolutely not safe to approach
ice jams or walk on the ice. And even if rivers and streams remain
within their banks, the water will be running high and fast and it
will be very cold, so please stay well away from river banks.
KEY MESSAGE 2: Following record setting warmth at Vermont climate sites
(see Climate section of AFD), a dramatic change will occur as a
backdoor cold front opens the door for polar air to funnel
southward, with most marked cooling down our valleys compared to mid-
slopes and high terrain. The shallow cold air advection still looks
to bring temperatures below freezing during the overnight hours,
with greatest confidence where Winter Weather Advisories are in
place. That being said, farther south and east, such as in eastern
Clinton County and western portions of the northern Champlain
Valley, a few hours around daybreak we may see temperatures
also fall below freezing. Precipitation chances are relatively
low and duration of sub-freezing temperatures short enough to
leave these areas out of the Winter Weather Advisory, but be
aware of possible freezing rain in these areas as well.
The precipitation expected late tonight through the day
Wednesday will be in the form of scattered rain showers, as
thunderstorms in the warm sector of a quasi-stationary front
overrun the boundary racing to the northeast. This makes
forecasting precipitation amounts and timing of rain rather
difficult; much of the day will likely be dry across Vermont and
southern/eastern parts of northern New York. Over our
western/northern areas, given the development of a pressure
trough over the vicinity of Route 11 in St. Lawrence County,
rain will be more significant. Enhanced surface convergence
should support steadier rain across the St. Lawrence Valley.
This area will also stay very cold (low to mid 30s) compared to
the foothills of the Adirondacks (50s) with continuous feed of
northeasterly winds. This is the area of most concern, and due
to combination of heavier precipitation and localized sub-
freezing temperatures, have increased the most likely ice
amounts near the International Border near Massena above 0.25".
There is about a 10% chance of approaching 0.5", which would
potentially create power outage issues in a localized area. Note
recent warmth does make it difficult to see widespread
road/travel impacts with any freezing rain, but it could happen
if temperatures spend enough time below freezing late tonight
into the morning hours.
KEY MESSAGE 3: No significant changes with an expected powerful cold
front that will zoom eastward Thursday morning. That being said,
confidence has increased that a Wind Advisory will be needed for
portions of the region for a period of time late tomorrow night into
Thursday morning; some model guidance shows mean mixed layer winds
near 50 MPH for up to several hours with an impressive cold air
advection scenario. Precipitation type will switch from rain to
snow as snow levels rapidly fall with cooling thermal profiles,
with perhaps an hour or two of potential snow showers before
enough dry air works in. Have a broad area of a coating to a
half inch of snow. Some of the snow accumulations may be a
little generous, especially in lower elevations downwind of the
mountain slopes, where unblocked flow and associated gusty
westerly winds scatter out moisture quickly once temperatures
become cold enough for accumulating snow. Seasonably cold
conditions will then persist into Friday, with temperatures
largely at or below 40 degrees through this period.
KEY MESSAGE 4: The weather pattern in the longer term remains active,
with a few systems to note. The first will be a clipper, which
will bring some snow to the area Friday night into Saturday.
While it`s too early to pin down snowfall amounts, an initial
look at ensembles within the National Blend of Models suggests a
1-4 inch event is the most likely scenario for much of our
forecast area.
After a brief break from precipitation on Sunday, an amplifying upper-
air pattern will allow for a deepening low to lift northeastward
near or directly through our forecast area early next week. The
amplified flow will support strong southerly flow ahead of the
system, followed by a sharp frontal passage marking the
transition to much colder air behind. This overall setup would
support varying precipitation types throughout the event, with
periods of mixed precipitation, rain, and snow all possible.
In addition to precipitation, the amplified pattern will mean our
roller coaster of temperatures will continue. Near to above normal
temperatures are expected for the weekend, followed by a sharp fall
of temperatures sometime in the Monday-Tuesday timeframe, depending
on timing of the front. Finally, expect windy conditions within the
warm sector, likely Sunday night into Monday. Probabilities of
wind gusts exceeding 30 mph according to the NBM peak early
Monday morning in the 50 to 80 percent range over the Champlain
Valley and northern Adirondacks.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Through 00Z Thursday...Main aviation threats will be LLWS and
lowering CIGs as a system moves into the region overnight. CIGS
lower to MVFR 04-09Z with IFR following 12-18Z, possibly through
00Z for some terminals. A strong low level jet moves in after
10Z and strengthens through the day on Thursday with widespread
LLWS ranging 35-60kts at 2000 feet AGL. Freezing rain potential
remains highest at MSS/PBG, but evening temperatures are slow to
fall; this may decrease the window of freezing rain potential
should temperature trends continue.
Outlook...
Wednesday Night: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Windy with
gusts to 30 kt. Definite RA.
Thursday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Windy with gusts
to 30 kt. Chance RA, Slight chance SHSN.
Thursday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. NO SIG WX.
Friday: VFR. Chance SN.
Friday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR and IFR possible.
Likely SN, Definite RA.
Saturday: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Slight chance SN.
Saturday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Slight
chance SN.
Sunday: VFR. Likely RA, Chance SN.
&&
.CLIMATE...
As of 334 PM EDT Tuesday...
Temperatures soared above daily records today. Unofficial record
highs were set as of 3 PM, including 61 degrees at MSS (Massena),
63 degrees at PBG (Plattsburgh), 66 degrees at MPV
(Montpelier), and 71 degrees at 1V4 (St. Johnsbury).
The high of 72 degrees at BTV (Burlington) was not only a daily
record but also ties the warmest temperature this early in the
winter/spring (January 1st through March 10th).
&&
.EQUIPMENT...
NOAA Weather Radio station WXM-44, transmitting from Mt.
Ascutney, Vermont, on frequency 162.475 MHz is non-operational
at this time. NWS technicians plan to restore its functionality
tomorrow, March 10th. The following NOAA Weather Radio
transmitters may be able to provide service during the outage:
WWG 50 from Burke Mtn, VT at 162.425 MHz and WNG 546 from
Hanover, NH at 162.525 MHz.
The Colchester Reef meteorological station is out of service.
This site is not serviced by the NWS and there isn`t an
estimated return to service at present. Please contact us if you
observe winds significantly deviating from the recreational
forecast.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...Flood Watch through Thursday afternoon for VTZ001>011-016>021.
Winter Weather Advisory until 2 PM EDT Wednesday for VTZ001.
NY...Flood Watch through Thursday afternoon for NYZ026>031-034-035-
087.
Winter Weather Advisory until 2 PM EDT Wednesday for
NYZ026>028-030-031-087.
&&
$$
WHAT HAS CHANGED...Kutikoff
DISCUSSION...Duell/Hastings/Kutikoff
AVIATION...Boyd
CLIMATE...NWS BTV
EQUIPMENT...NWS BTV
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