347
FXUS61 KBTV 271852
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
152 PM EST Tue Jan 27 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
As of 139 PM EST Tuesday...No changes were needed. A Nor`easter
is being monitored, but probabilistic guidance suggests it will
remain well away from the region at this time.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
As of 139 PM EST Tuesday...

1. Periods of isolated to scattered snow showers expected
through Thursday night.

2. Cold temperatures/wind chills Thursday night.

3. Continued cold through the weekend while closely monitoring
potential east coast storm.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
As of 139 PM EST Tuesday...

KEY MESSAGE 1: Cyclonic flow aloft coupled with unidirectional
winds off of Lake Ontario will support some snow showers this
afternoon and tonight across portions of northern New York
towards the northern Greens. Locations in northern New York in
southern St Lawrence County could see up to 3 inches, but the
band will quickly waver southward towards Wednesday morning.
Lower totals are possible for the northern Greens. Snow showers
may continue intermittently in the northern Greens through
Thursday night as flow turns more northwesterly favoring some
upslope showers. Moisture is quite anemic, so any amounts will
be very light.

.KEY MESSAGE 2: A trough swings through Thursday/Thursday night
while low pressure is favored to track up the mid-Atlantic
coastline. The result will be a tightening pressure gradient and
as increase in cold air advection across northern New York and
Vermont. Model temperatures favor well below average
temperatures Thursday night coupling with winds to bring wind
chill values down into the -15 to -30 range for much of northern
New York and -5 to -20 elsewhere. These values promote
increased risk of hypothermia and frost bite especially for
sensitive populations.

.KEY MESSAGE 3: Continued cold through early next week with
eyes watching a potential east coast storm for potential
impacts.

Rotating closed low across Eastern Canada-New England will pivot a
strong shortwave south across the Great Lakes, Oh Rvr Vly and form a
strong closed low in SE CONUS by Saturday with strong cyclogenesis
off the Mid-Atlantic coast Sat ngt-Sunday.

At this point, the big question is where does this low track?
Looking at numerous ensemble guidance it looks to track near or
south of the 40N/70W benchmark which is unfavorable for VT and
northern NY is you`re looking for accumulating snow. Also...strong
storms (pressure gradients) keep moisture rather tight toward the
center of the circulation so the north side will have the greatest
precipitation gradient between the Haves and the Have Nots.

Currently...probabilities of 0.1 or greater QPF from the
GEFS/CMC/ECMWF and AI versions show 10-20 percent for lower CT Rvr
Vly with even less than 50 percent of 0.01 for Champlain Vly west.
The ongoing forecast has a minimum POP for snow Champl Vly east.

Meanwhile as I mentioned as the key message we stay colder than
normal Fri-Sun with Friday being the coldest and then some slight
moderation but still below normal for early next week.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Through 18Z Wednesday...A trough moving east at the moment has
and will continue to bring scattered -SHSN, mainly to northern
TAF sites. Some brief 2sm -shsn or lower is possible, again
brief. Aft 00z...most of -SHSN activity should have exited with
VFR conditions and light winds.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
NOAA Weather Radio station WXM-44, transmitting from Mt.
Ascutney, Vermont, on frequency 162.475 MHz is non-operational
at this time. NWS technicians have diagnosed the problem, but
repairs will likely not be able to occur for quite some time due
to circumstances beyond our control. Therefore, the time of
return to service is currently unknown. The following NOAA
Weather Radio transmitters may be able to provide service during
this outage: WWG 50 from Burke Mtn, VT at 162.425 MHz and WNG
546 from Hanover, NH at 162.525 MHz.

The Colchester Reef meteorological station is out of service.
This site is not serviced by the NWS and there isn`t an
estimated return to service at present. Use extra caution when
navigating the broad waters of Lake Champlain. Please contact us
if you observe winds significantly deviating from the
recreational forecast.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Boyd/SLW
AVIATION...SLW
EQUIPMENT...NWS BTV