765
FXUS61 KBTV 071831
AFDBTV
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
131 PM EST Sat Mar 7 2026
.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
As of 131 PM EST Saturday...
Confidence has increased in widespread river rises due to snowmelt
this upcoming week.
&&
.KEY MESSAGES...
As of 131 PM EST Saturday...
1. Warm, windy and wet weather through tonight. However, no
significant impacts expected.
2. Unseasonable warmth will continue early next week,
especially on Monday and Tuesday. Little to no snow will be left at
elevations below 1000 feet.
3. Confidence in widespread river rises due to snowmelt has
increased, particularly for early to the middle part of next week.
Rivers will need to be monitored closely for river ice movement and
potential ice jams and associated flooding.
4. After a stretch of spring-like weather, more widespread
precipitation is expected to arrive for the middle of next week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
As of 131 PM EST Saturday...
KEY MESSAGE 1: A surge of unusually warm and moist air is making its
way northward across much of the eastern US today ahead of a high
amplitude trough. At the surface, a warm front is expected to stay
hung up just to our southwest today as surface temperatures,
especially in central and eastern Vermont, are relatively slow to
rise. Also, localized colder spots near Lake Champlain In contrast,
much of northern New York is seeing temperatures early this
afternoon well into the 50s and even low 60s with dewpoints climbing
into the upper 40s and low 50s. Eventually, extreme warmth will be
seen across our region by this evening as we mix out a stubborn
surface inversion with increasing south-southwesterly flow ahead of
a slow moving cold front. Surface temperatures upstream ahead of
this front in western New York have risen into the upper 60s and low
70s with dew points approaching 60. The warmth is impressive,
particularly in the 850-700 millibar layer. Temperatures at 850
millibars, indicative of our higher mountain summit weather,
will likely be as high as 13 degrees Celsius (55 F) later today
into this evening. Note the observed upper air data (radiosonde)
from Albany, NY at 7 AM today shows this extreme warm layer
with exactly 13 degrees at 850 millibars, which appears to be a
record through this point in the calendar year (back to 1948).
With regards to precipitation, the GOES-16 water vapor channels show
a messy scenario. Widely scattered showers are present out ahead of
batch of somewhat organized showers and thunderstorms over southern
Ontario and western New York, where clusters of colder cloud tops
can be seen within the warm sector of the frontal system. While
ample warmth and humidity will be present, it is questionable if
elevated instability will be sufficient for thunder in northern New
York and Vermont. Consistent with the Storm Prediction Center
analysis, risk of thunder generally is higher as you go west.
Signals for whether any of this upstream convection, particularly
thunderstorms, survive into our relatively cool/stable air mass are
a bit mixed. Progged MUCAPE (Most Unstable CAPE) will possibly surge
to near 100-200 J/kg as mid-levels saturate in the St. Lawrence
Valley and western Adirondacks. These areas remain most likely to
see heavier rainfall amounts than areas to the east given richer low
level moisture and convergence. However, while PWAT (Precipitable
Water) will be anomalously high, lack of instability, fast cell
motions, and modest warm cloud depths reduce risk of heavy rainfall.
Most likely amounts through tonight will be about a third to three
quarters of an inch, with very localized spots possibly near 1",
tapering off to a tenth to a third of an inch in much of Vermont,
again with localized higher amounts exceeding a half inch especially
in northeastern areas and high terrain.
Most CAMs (Convective Allowing Models) and time of arrival tools
suggest these showers will begin after 5 PM with coverage increasing
from 6 to 9 PM across the region. They will make it into Vermont
relatively slowly given deep layer southwest flow close to parallel
with the front. The actual cold front will lag behind this area of
showers, so moist and mild southerly flow will persist for much of
the night. A final round of scattered showers just ahead of the cold
front will likely move across the area in the early morning hours,
with precipitation chances rapidly decreasing from west to east
towards daybreak as drier air filters in. Unseasonably warm and
breezy conditions tonight will support rapid snowmelt (more on this
in Key Message 3) and ripening of higher elevation snow. Typically
this could be a foggy over snow scenario with high dewpoints in the
40s and even low 50s, but think there may be enough wind to reduce
prevalence of fog tonight; this may need to be re-evaluated this
evening. While the southerly channeled flow in the northern
Champlain Valley will be relaxing tonight, a belt of 50 to 60 knot
west-southwesterly flow in the 700 to 850 millibar layer will be
coincident with the showers overnight. Stability should keep these
strong winds from mixing effectively. However, towards daybreak as
flow becomes westerly behind the front, some localized downslope
winds will develop resulting in possible 45 to 50 MPH gusts. These
will initially be east of the Adirondack high peaks and then
expand into the eastern slopes of the Green Mountains,
especially favoring western Windsor County with expected
magnitude and orientation of the low level jet.
KEY MESSAGE 2: Large scale west-southwesterly flow and a storm track
well to our north will keep us in a warm and dry weather pattern.
Temperatures tomorrow behind tonight`s cold front will still be
rather mild in the 40s in most locations, and then as winds turn
southerly again tomorrow night into Monday, we`ll see warm air
advection support temperatures surging into the mid and upper 50s in
most locations. Despite some modest southerly winds with gusts of 15
to 25 MPH, ample sunshine alongside these temperatures should make
this a really pleasant day for outdoor activities such as corn snow
skiing and walking with a single layer of clothing.
Tuesday will be subtly different as a backdoor cold front may settle
far enough south to flip winds to northerly during the afternoon in
our northernmost areas while southern areas see further warming of
the air mass to support highs in the low to mid 60s. Therefore, the
forecast for Monday is a bit more certain than Tuesday with regards
to high temperatures, especially in the Champlain Valley and
northern counties in Vermont. The St. Lawrence Valley more
definitely looks to see somewhat cooler conditions on Tuesday than
Monday. As of now, across southern counties of northern New
York and Vermont, Tuesday will be another warm and sunny day,
while increasing clouds and slightly cooler weather is possible
farther north.
KEY MESSAGE 3: With a prolonged period of above freezing temperatures
expected through the first half of next week, river response is
likely areawide due to runoff from snowmelt. This weekend`s warmer
weather is a preview of what`s to come, and will likely serve as a
primer for more river rises later in the week.
Snowmelt is just starting in earnest this afternoon as temperatures
have warmed well into the 40s and even 50s from the Champlain Valley
westward. In addition, note dew points have likewise risen above
freezing (or will by later today in the case of eastern VT). Add in
gusty south/southwest winds, and it`s the perfect recipe for
snowmelt. While rivers haven`t show a whole lot of response just
yet, we do anticipate waterways will start to rise this evening and
continue overnight. The latest river forecasts from the Northeast
RFC do show a few of our river gages (Ausable R near Ausable Forks,
Otter Creek near Center Rutland, and Mad River near Moretown)
approaching or just exceeding action stage at some point Sunday.
There could be some nuisance-type flooding of low-lying areas along
these waterways, but no significant impacts are expected.
Our bigger concern is heading forward toward the middle of next
week. This weekend`s snowmelt should slow or even stop Sunday night
as temperatures drop back close to or below freezing, allowing
rivers to recede a bit. However, this will be short lived as we`ll
warm well into the 50s and even 60s Monday, Tuesday, and Wednesday.
Like today, we`ll see warming dew points as well, along with periods
of gusty winds. Overnight temperatures are expected to mainly stay
near or above freezing, so there won`t be a whole lot of recovery
between peak snowmelt times. The snowpack will likely take a pretty
good hit; note that the latest NOHRSC analysis shows everything
melted out below 1000 ft or so by early Tuesday morning. Higher
elevations will also see substantial loss of the pack, though how
much exactly is still hard to determine at this point. Looking at
the latest GEFS/NAEFS ensemble runs, a general 2-4 inches of SWE
loss seems reasonable through Thursday. While rainfall isn`t
expected to be overly heavy during this time frame, it will be
enough to add to the runoff. Given the prolonged period of mild
temperatures, we`re growing more confident that there will be ice
movement on area rivers next week, particularly on southern
waterways that have a better chance of seeing persistent mild
conditions. Of course, river ice break up and resultant ice jams and
any flooding are fairly unpredictable, especially this far out in
time. With that in mind, we urge anyone with interests along area
waterways to monitor future forecasts closely. As far as open water
flooding, it really takes both snowmelt and heavy rainfall to create
significant problems, but some ensemble guidance shows rivers such
as the Mad River, Ausable, and Otter Creek potentially exceeding
minor flood stage. And at the least, waterways will be running high,
even smaller tributaries and streams.
KEY MESSAGE 4: A low pressure system centered over the Great Lakes will
track northeastward towards the middle of next week, bringing
widespread precipitation chances to the region Wednesday into
Thursday. There is still a lot of uncertainty in regards to
precipitation type at this point, both due to temperatures and low
track. The current forecast supports mostly rain, with a brief
transition to snow during the day Thursday as a cold front pushes
across the region, although there is some guidance that supports the
possibility of a wintry mix and some freezing rain. At this point is
is still too tricky to tell for sure, as small differences in
thermal profiles and surface temperature can play a large role in
the precipitation type, but is something to monitor over the next
few days as we get closer. After the cold front Thursday,
temperatures for the end of the week look to trend closer to
seasonal normals for early March, with highs in the mid 30s to low
40s.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Through 18Z Sunday...VFR conditions currently prevail across
terminals this afternoon as cloud cover as gradually become more
scattered, although KEFK continues to hold onto IFR ceilings at this
time. VFR conditions look to be rather short-lived, as precipitation
and lower ceilings are expected to move into the region again
towards 21Z or so. Most terminals are expected to be MVFR for the
remainder of the forecast period, with the potential for some IFR
stratus and mist/fog developing overnight tonight. Currently the
greatest confidence of IFR ceilings is at KSLK and KEFK, although
they may be possible at other terminals. Strong southerly winds will
continue throughout most of the forecast period, especially at KBTV
where gusts up to and in excess of 30 knots will continue, although
gusts are expected to abate towards tomorrow morning. LLWS is
expected at all terminals, continuing through most of the TAF period
until around 09Z or so.
Outlook...
Sunday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Monday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Monday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday: VFR. Slight chance RA.
Tuesday Night: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. Chance RA, Chance
SN.
Wednesday: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Definite RA.
Wednesday Night: Mainly IFR, with areas MVFR possible. Likely RA,
Likely SN.
Thursday: Mainly IFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance SN, Chance
RA.
&&
.CLIMATE...
Temperatures today have become quite warm, particularly in
northern New York. Possible daily records for 3/7 include:
Massena (MSS)
Record High: 60|1973
Saranac Lake (SLK)
Record High: 58|1946
&&
.EQUIPMENT...
The KBTV ASOS has suffered a communications failure. The issue
has been diagnosed, but there is currently no estimated time of
return to service. The affected communications line is not
serviced by the NWS. Terminal Aerodrome Forecasts will continue,
but regular observations may not be available.
NOAA Weather Radio station WXM-44, transmitting from Mt.
Ascutney, Vermont, on frequency 162.475 MHz is non- operational
at this time. NWS technicians have diagnosed the problem, but
repairs will likely not be able to occur for quite some time due
to circumstances beyond our control. Therefore, the time of
return to service is currently unknown. The following NOAA
Weather Radio transmitters may be able to provide service during
this outage: WWG 50 from Burke Mtn, VT at 162.425 MHz and WNG
546 from Hanover, NH at 162.525 MHz.
The Colchester Reef meteorological station is out of service.
This site is not serviced by the NWS and there isn`t an
estimated return to service at present. Please contact us if you
observe winds significantly deviating from the recreational
forecast.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.
&&
$$
WHAT HAS CHANGED...Kutikoff
DISCUSSION...Kutikoff/Kremer/Hastings
AVIATION...Kremer
CLIMATE...NWS BTV
EQUIPMENT...NWS BTV
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