988
FXUS61 KBTV 050657
AFDBTV
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
157 AM EST Mon Jan 5 2026
.SYNOPSIS...
Clouds will quickly increase this morning with a period of light
snow developing this afternoon and continuing into tonight. Total
snow accumulations of a dusting to 3 inches can be expected with
areas of slick travel during the evening commute. Our next stronger
system arrives late Tuesday into Wednesday with a widespread snow
and mixed precipitation event anticipated. After a cool start
temperatures will rebound to near normal values by Tuesday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 152 AM EST Monday...Sfc analysis places 1025mb high pres at
KMSS this morning with temps ranging from -15F at SLK to +10F near
Lake Champlain. The combination of pockets of clouds and some
gradient flow has kept temps from completely bottoming out early
this morning. GOES-19 water vapor clearly shows our next s/w and
pocket of enhanced mid lvl moisture and cooling cloud tops on the IR
acrs the central Great Lakes. This mid lvl vort and associated waa
lift wl move into northern NY by 18z and into most of VT by 00z
this evening. Initially sounding data shows lingering dry layer
btwn sfc and 700mb, so precip may start as a period of
virga/flurries, before complete saturation of modifying arctic
airmass occurs. Once saturation occurs, sounding data indicates
deep moist layer from sfc thru 500mb for several hours late this
aftn/evening within favorable DGZ. Did note the HREF mean
hourly snowfall rates of 0.25 to 0.50" associated with best
lift/moisture this evening. Given movement of dynamics and
moisture, did increase qpf by 10% to 15% over NBM, which
combined with snow ratios 15/18 to 1 produces a 0.5 to 3.5"
snowfall acrs our region. Highest amounts near from southern SLV
to the High Peaks to southern Greens, with a dusting to 1 inch
over NEK, where drier air from departing high pres wl be
located. Given timing of snowfall, a slick evening commute is
likely, including parts of the CPV. Temps warm mid teens SLV/NEK
to mid 20s southern SLV to southern CPV, which results in an
all snow event.
Tonight system quickly exits our cwa btwn 03-06z with light snow
tapering off. Temps are tricky with fresh snow cover and potential
for some clearing aft 06z, but 925mb temps are warming under weak
southwest waa. So have kept close to NBM with values ranging from
single digits to mid teens, but a few colder readings near zero are
possible.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 152 AM EST Monday...Next system currently acrs the inter-
mountain west wl eject acrs the northern/central Plains today with
developing area of low pres expected near Chicago by 12z Tuesday.
This area of low pres wl deepen and quickly move eastward in the
fast 700mb to 500mb flow aloft and be located near Buffalo by 03z
Weds. This system wl be stronger with deeper moisture and better
dynamics, so a winter wx advisory type of an event is likely for
late Tues into Weds. As low pres approaches the 925mb to 700mb
thermal gradient sharpens acrs our cwa, resulting in the
potential for some mixed precip. 00z guidance trends have been
slightly cooler with thermal profiles as CAD signature from
lingering high pres over northern Maine helps to keep colder air
locked in, while enhancing secondary development over the SNE
coast by 12z Weds. The combination of evaporational and
dynamical cooling associated with deep layer lift with initial
band of waa should result in a burst of moderate snow acrs our
cwa late Tues into Tues night. Snowfall rates of 0.5 to 1.5"
per hour are possible, given band of favorable 850 to 700mb fgen
forcing and moderately strong 700 to 500mb omega fields,
especially btwn 03z-06z Weds. As mid/upper lvl trof and
associated embedded s/w energy move directly overhead btwn
06-12z Weds another round of light precip wl be expected acrs
most of our cwa. Thermal profiles support mostly snow with some
mix possible of sleet/freezing rain over the western Dacks and
parts of the CPV. Total snowfall looks to be in the 2 to 6 inch
range with some minor ice accumulation possible by midday Weds.
Given relatively modest sfc to 850mb flow associated with 1000mb
low pres, precip fields should have limited trrn influence with
this system. Some lingering upslope snow showers are possible
on Weds aftn, but moisture in the favorable DGZ is quickly
decreasing, so some areas of drizzle/mtn freezing drizzle is
possible. Temps warm into the upper 20s to mid 30s Tues and Weds
with little change in overnight lows, given clouds/precip.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 152 AM EST Monday...A vertically stacked low pressure system
will shift north and east from New Brunswick and Nova Scotia through
the Gulf of St. Lawrence on Wednesday night, resulting in a decrease
of atmospheric moisture across northern New York and Vermont as high
pressure moves in. Models indicate the snow growth zone during this
period will remain fairly dry. However, upslope snow showers may
linger across the mountains as soundings appear saturated below 800
mb. Temperatures in the 20s overnight will be near to slightly below
seasonal normals.
Temperatures look to rise into the upper 30s and lower 40s most
places on Thursday in what looks to be a dry day as overall flow
turns southwesterly ahead of our next storm system. This next system
is a strong low pressure that models are starting to come into
better agreement on the track and timing of, and one that is most
likely to bring the forecast area mostly rain. Forecast highs in the
40s Friday and Saturday support this, though depending on the
arrival time of the precipitation, Thursday night could still have
some lows 32 and below, resulting in a touch of wintry precipitation
at the onset. Fortunately in terms of snowmelt and river ice
movement, impacts are expected to be minimal to none.
Some back end snow showers are possible on Saturday night into
Sunday as temperatures fall back into the 20s to lower 30s. Snow
will be most likely in the mountains, and we are still not
anticipating significant snowfall amounts. Early next week, another
stretch of cold temperatures with chances for snow showers is
expected.
&&
.AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Through 06Z Tuesday...Cloud coverage is currently decreasing across
northern New York and Vermont, leaving us in a very quiet, VFR,
light/variable wind dominated period until around 16Z-22Z Monday.
Flurries and light snow are then expected as a weaker variety
clipper system speeds through the region, turning winds out of the
south and southeast. Moisture continues to be low given cold
conditions and lack of sufficient moisture source. The coverage and
intensity of the snow showers will rely greatly on the amount of
moisture we can pull in from the Great Lakes.
Heaviness and steadiness are expected to gradually ramp up around
16Z-18Z, then a period of steady, IFR vis snow is most likely 18Z-
03Z, tapering off afterwards. Clouds will also thicken and lower
ahead of the approaching snow this morning, lowering below 3000 feet
by around 17Z-22Z, remaining low through the end of the 24 hour TAF
period. There is the potential for places like SLK, RUT, and MSS
(more directly in the track of the clipper) to have ceilings dip
below 1000 feet, but at this time confidence is low on the timing
and duration of this occurring. Winds will generally stay below 10
knots over the next 24 hours.
Outlook...
Tuesday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SN.
Tuesday Night: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Definite SN,
Definite FZRA.
Wednesday: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Slight chance
RA, Slight chance SN.
Wednesday Night: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. NO SIG WX.
Thursday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. NO SIG WX.
Thursday Night: VFR. Chance RA, Chance SN.
Friday: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. Likely RA.
&&
.EQUIPMENT...
NOAA Weather Radio station WXM-44, transmitting from Mt.
Ascutney, Vermont, on frequency 162.475 MHz is non-operational
at this time. NWS technicians have diagnosed the problem, but
repairs will likely not be able to occur for quite some time due
to circumstances beyond our control. Therefore, the time of
return to service is currently unknown. The following NOAA
Weather Radio transmitters may be able to provide service during
this outage: WWG 50 from Burke Mtn, VT at 162.425 MHz and WNG
546 from Hanover, NH at 162.525 MHz.
The Colchester Reef meteorological station is out of service.
This site is not serviced by the NWS and there isn`t an
estimated return to service at present. Use extra caution when
navigating the broad waters of Lake Champlain. Please contact us
if you observe winds significantly deviating from the
recreational forecast.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Taber
NEAR TERM...Taber
SHORT TERM...Taber
LONG TERM...Storm
AVIATION...Storm
EQUIPMENT...Team BTV
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