154
FXUS61 KBTV 290651
AFDBTV
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
251 AM EDT Fri May 29 2026
.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
As of 251 AM EDT Friday...
No significant changes.
&&
.KEY MESSAGES...
As of 251 AM EDT Friday...
1. Two rounds of showers this weekend and some flakes in the
mountains.
2. Gusty winds today and tomorrow.
3. Drier and warmer weather expected mid to late week, as
trough is slowly replaced by ridging at all levels.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
As of 251 AM EDT Friday...
KEY MESSAGE 1: Two shortwaves pass down from the north in the upcoming
days, bringing two rounds of showers. The first will be this
afternoon into tomorrow morning and the second will be Sunday night
into Monday morning. From the first one, rainfall totals will have a
sharp northeast to southwest gradient, with the Northeast Kingdom
expected to see over an inch while only around a tenth of an inch is
expected for the St. lawrence Valley and southern Essex County NY.
The notable feature with this one will be the cold temperatures
aloft. Mean HREF 850 mb temperatures drop to around -3 Saturday
morning, and 925 mb temperatures drop to around 1 celsius. This puts
snow levels down to 3,000 feet for most places. Above that level a
few tenths of an inch are possible, with 1-2 inches possible on the
summits. Lower temperatures aloft will be present farther east, and
a few fakes could drop down to 2,000-2500 feet across eastern
Vermont, though accumulations are not expected that low. A few
flakes will mix in the higher elevations in the Northeast Kingdom,
and could also occur in the higher elevations south through Groton
and into Orange County. The rain showers will exit early Saturday
morning and some clearing should occur by afternoon, so Saturday
should overall be a decent day with highs in the 50s to low 60s. The
second round of showers arrives Sunday afternoon and continues
Sunday night, though the dynamics will be weaker with this one.
Temperatures aloft will also be warmer, so snow levels should be
mostly above summit levels, though a few flakes cannot be completely
ruled out at the summits of the High Peaks. Highest rainfall totals
will again be across the Northeast Kingdom, but a widespread couple
tenths of an inch is currently expected.
KEY MESSAGE 2: A westerly low level jet passes overhead this afternoon,
with the strongest part over northern New York. Ample mixing up to
around 4,000 to 5,000 feet will allow much of it to mix to the
surface. Winds at the top of the mixed layer look to be between 40-
45 KTs, and soundings indicate that this should be able to mix down
to about 30-40 mph. Gusts in the 20 to 30 mph range are expected
over Vermont. Overall, impacts from this should be very minor.
KEY MESSAGE 3: A highly amplified blocking type pattern is expected to
prevail into Tuesday, before a slow pattern shift evolves. The
timing and evolution of this pattern shift is challenging and has
low predictability, given large model spread and high amplification.
GFS is still most aggressive with closing 700-500mb circulation
becoming stationary over southern New England for most of next week,
while most other guidance is showing a more progressive mid/upper
lvl trof lifting to our northeast by midweek. The latest WPC
forecast indicates high chc (40-50%) pops for Tuesday afternoon with
a sharp decrease to 10-25% by Tues night and keeping the rest of the
week dry. However, buyer beware with potential cyclonic northerly
flow lingering thru midweek at least, additional s/w energy and
pockets of better mid lvl moisture, combining with low lvl upslope
flow could produce additional showers on Weds aftn/evening and again
on Thurs. Also, given cool pocket aloft progged to be centered acrs
the NE CONUS thru mid week, I cannot rule out aftn instability type
showers developing, especially acrs the higher trrn. Eventually
mid/upper lvl ridge and sfc high pres that has been anchored over
the Central Plains wl shift eastward into our cwa by late week/next
weekend. This should provide us with drier conditions and warming
temps into the mid 70s to lower 80s. The probability of hazardous or
highly impactful weather for the next 4 to 7 days is very low, along
with the potential for any strong to severe thunderstorms. The lack
of sfc heating and instability is the limited factor.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Through 06Z Saturday...GOES-19 IR satellite shows multiple cloud
layers moving from north to south across our TAF sites early
this morning, which will continue today. These clouds and
boundary layer flow should prevent fog/mist or low clouds from
developing at any taf sites thru 12z. As additional moisture and
lift arrive this afternoon, areal coverage of showers with an
embedded rumble of thunder will increase after 18z from north to
south. As winds shift to the northwest behind a surface boundary
this evening, CIGS will lower to MVFR and eventually intervals
of IFR CIGS are possible toward 06z Saturday. Light winds this
morning become south/southwest 5 to 15 knots with localized
higher gusts, before shifting to the north/northwest this
evening at 10 to 15 knots. Localized MVFR vis is possible in any
heavier convective shower this afternoon/evening, especially
near the International Border.
Outlook...
Saturday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. NO SIG WX.
Saturday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Sunday: VFR. Chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA.
Sunday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA.
Monday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Likely SHRA, Slight
chance TSRA.
Monday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Slight chance
SHRA.
Tuesday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.
&&
$$
WHAT HAS CHANGED...Myskowski
DISCUSSION...Myskowski/Taber
AVIATION...Taber
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