794
FXUS61 KBTV 190001
AFDBTV
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
801 PM EDT Sat Oct 18 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
A fire weather watch has been issued for all of Vermont and
parts of northern New York for Sunday for gusty southerly winds
and low humidity values. Temperatures will warm well into the
70s on Sunday with developing south winds 15 to 25 mph and
localized gusts 25 to 45 mph possible, especially northern New
York. A developing area of low pressure will produce a
widespread wetting rainfall late Sunday night through Monday
across the entire region. Cooler and unsettled weather prevails
most of this upcoming work week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 200 PM EDT Saturday...Primary concern is critical fire
weather conditions on Sunday. Please see fire weather discussion
below for additional details. For tonight clouds are tricky as a
sfc warm frnt continues to push northward, while GOES-19 mid lvl
water vapor shows a developing and well defined dry slot moving
toward our region. Thinking mid lvl clouds linger thru the
evening hours before some clearing develops overnight with lows
mid/upper 30s eastern/central VT valleys to lower 50s CPV and
parts of the SLV.
The large scale synoptic pattern shows sfc high pres sliding
off the New England Coast tonight, while developing low pres and
associated cold frnt approach our western cwa on Sunday. The
gradient btwn these two systems wl help to enhance a strong
925mb to 850mb south-southeast jet of 40 to 55 knots by 00z
Monday. This jet combined with favorable mixing from steepening
sfc to 850mb lapse rates 7.0 to 8.5 C/km support localized gusts
25 to 45 mph. The strongest winds wl be acrs the northern
slopes of the Dacks and northern parts of the CPV thru Sunday.
As mixing improves temps wl quickly warm into the 70s with a few
spots near 80F possible in favorable downslope areas, while
slightly lower dwpts from aloft transfer toward the sfc. Minimum
humidities mostly in the 28% to 38% range, but localized values
in the 40 to 50% range is possible near Lake Champlain and acrs
the higher trrn, where temps wl be cooler. Any potential rain
showers wl hold off until after sunset on Sunday.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
As of 200 PM EDT Saturday...Breezy conditions prevail on Sunday
night with a mild night anticipated ahead of sfc low pres and
associated cold frnt. Mid/upper lvl pattern becomes rather
complex by Monday morning as northern and southern stream vorts
phase and trof quickly becomes closed off and negatively tilted.
This wl help to enhanced secondary area of low pres over the
eastern Mid Atlantic States with the redevelopment of a strong
925mb to 850mb low level jet of 50 to 65 knots on Monday. Still
some uncertainty on mixing profiles and inversion height to
determine exact wind speeds, especially along the favorable
downslope areas of the western slopes, but localized gusts 35 to
45 mph seem likely on Monday. A wind advisory maybe needed along
the western slopes on Monday if trends continue. This jet and
very strong dynamics wl produce a widespread wetting rainfall
late Sunday night through Monday. Initially some downslope
shadowing associated with the strong southeast jet is likely,
but as system becomes closed off and lifts slowly to our
northeast, favorable backside upslope flow develops. Either way
I have placed pops at 100% for late Sunday night thru Monday for
most of the area, and continue very high pops, especially mtns
for Monday night, given the synoptic scale setup. Rainfall
ranges from 0.75 to 1.50" with localized amounts near 2.0"
possible by Tues. Temps wl be much cooler on Monday with clouds
and rain expected with highs in the mid 50s to lower 60s. These
might need to be adjusted down further, especially favorable se
upslope areas.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 144 PM EDT Saturday...Shower activity will continue Tuesday
morning particularly across far northeastern Vermont and in the
Adirondacks as a dynamic negatively tiled trough exists to the
northeast. There is still some timing uncertainty as to when the
system actually departs between early Tuesday afternoon or Tuesday
evening, but regardless brief ridging will build in Tuesday night
with weakening flow aloft and at the surface. If winds can decouple
Tuesday night, with the added moisture from the prior days rain,
there is potential for some patchy fog in the usual river valleys.
A larger upper low will be right on the heels of the departing low,
however, by early Wednesday morning. Like the prior system, it will
acquire a negatively tilted appearance which will aid in increased
south-north moisture advection from the Gulf and Atlantic. An
initial band of precipitation looks likely during the day Wednesday
with more scattered showers following, most of which look to be
confined to the higher terrain. The negative tilting of the trough
will also help in the movement of a vort max downstream into parts
of eastern Vermont which should aid in the development of a triple
point low and cyclogenesis along the Connecticut River Valley.
Resurgence of moisture and precipitation looks increasingly
favorable across eastern Vermont and especially the Northeast
Kingdom Wednesday night into Thursday. As this developing low
departs off to the northeast on Thursday, cyclonic flow from
occluding upper low will remain with cyclonic flow and continued
precipitation chances through the end of the week.
The 540dam thickness line behind the upper low should be able to
swing southward over northern New York with the strong occlusion
that the system will undergo. 925mb temperatures show sub freezing
values which would indicate possible snow across the mountain
summits with cyclonic flow lingering into Thursday/Friday. Model
soundings suggest the freezing level could be as low as 1500 ft,
however, with surface temperatures not able to cool off as
efficiently, snow levels will likely reside at 2500 ft or higher.
Which is to say, precipitation in the form of wet snow atop mountain
summits is increasingly favorable by the end of the week.
All in all, beneficial rain up to half an inch, limited to the
progressive nature of the systems, will help to stabilize many
drought stricken areas. Although, it does not look to be enough to
lead to any drought improvement. Temperatures will be fairly close
to climatological norms in the 50s during the day with a range of
lows in the upper 20s to lower 40s throughout the extended.
&&
.AVIATION /23Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Through 00Z Monday...VFR conditions will prevail through the
period with winds increasing after 12Z. Southerly flow will
become gusty out of the south increasing 18-00Z; sfc gusts to
30kts are possible in the northern Champlain Valley with
20-25kts elsewhere. LLWS will also be a concern where sfc gusts
do not align with southerly flow aloft like at SLK.
Outlook...
Sunday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Likely SHRA.
Monday: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Windy with gusts to
30 kt. Definite SHRA.
Monday Night: Mainly MVFR, with local VFR possible. Likely SHRA.
Tuesday: MVFR. Slight chance SHRA.
Tuesday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA.
Wednesday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Likely SHRA.
Wednesday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance
SHRA.
Thursday: Mainly MVFR, with local VFR possible. Likely SHRA.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
A Fire Weather Watch has been issued for portions of northern
New York and all of Vermont from Sunday afternoon into Sunday
evening for gusty winds and low humidities. Our region continues
in a severe to extreme drought with near surface soil moisture
in the 1% to 5% ranking, as 30 to 60 day precip is 25% to 50% of
normal. These extremely dry conditions have caused fine and
cured 1 and 10 hour fuels to become very dry and receptive to
carrying fire per coordination with our fire weather partners.
Meanwhile, min humidities in the 28% to 38% range and
developing gusty southerly winds of 25 to 45 mph are expected on
Sunday afternoon and evening. If any fires were to start the weather
and fuel conditions could cause fires to quickly get out of
control and be difficult to contain.
For more information about the current fire danger rating, any burn
restrictions, and wildfire prevention and education, please visit
your state forestry or environmental protection website. Remember, a
debris burn ban is in effect for all of Vermont which means no
open burning of debris is allowed.
&&
.MARINE...
A lake wind advisory will be in effect tonight for developing
south winds 15 to 25 knots with localized gusts up to 30 knots
possible after midnight. Wave will be building 2 to 4 feet with
higher swells in the open waters.
&&
.EQUIPMENT...
The TYX radar is down until further notice after a hardware
failure occurred. Replacement parts have been ordered and will
be installed.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...Fire Weather Watch from Sunday afternoon through Sunday
evening for VTZ030>035.
NY...Fire Weather Watch from Sunday afternoon through Sunday
evening for NYZ202-205.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Taber
NEAR TERM...Taber
SHORT TERM...Taber
LONG TERM...Danzig
AVIATION...Boyd
FIRE WEATHER...Taber
MARINE...Taber
EQUIPMENT...BTV
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