FXUS61 KBTV 270821
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Burlington VT
421 AM EDT Mon May 27 2019
A weak front will move through the area today, bringing some
passing clouds this afternoon and perhaps a stray shower.
Tonight will be clear and colder with some patchy frost expected
in portions of the northern Adirondacks and Northeast Kingdom.
A decaying system from the Midwestern US will track just south
of the forecast area Tuesday, bringing a round of rain to
southern and central portions of the forecast area. Temperatures
will be seasonably cool through Tuesday.
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 410 AM EDT Monday...Observing clear skies throughout the
forecast area early this morning as high pressure builds in
from the north. After a sunny start to the day, a weak frontal
passage will result in increasing clouds through the afternoon.
Expecting the frontal passage to mainly be a dry one due to
lack of moisture associated with the boundary, however can`t
rule out an isolated light shower or two, particularly over
higher terrain. Highs today will range from the upper 50s/low
60s near the Canadian Border to the upper 60s/low 70s over
Tonight, clouds will move out of the area behind the front.
With high pressure cresting over eastern Vermont, should see
some effective radiational cooling overnight. Currently
forecasting lows in the low 40s over valley locations, and lows
in the mid 30s over the Northeast Kingdom and the northern
Adirondacks. This will lead to potential for some patchy frost
to develop in these higher elevation locations (mainly northern
Adirondacks and Essex County, VT) where the growing season is
underway. However, still a bit of question as to exactly how low
temperatures will get due to an approaching warm front from the
west, which will spread high clouds over northern NY by Tuesday
morning. Have elected to hold off on any frost advisories due
to the approaching low clouds (will continue to watch the trends
however...) and instead have issued an SPS to address tonight`s
frost potential in higher elevations.
Tuesday, the remnants of a Midwestern MCS will move into the
area. Consequently, expecting rainfall through much of the day
as the system tracks across central NY and central New England.
Models are trending the track of the system slightly further
north, so while the heaviest precipitation still looks to fall
over southern Vermont, have nudged QPF and PoPs up over central
and northern portions of the forecast area. Highs Tuesday will
be in the upper 50s to low 60s.
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 410 AM EDT Monday...Fairly widespread area of showers will be
over the North Country Tuesday evening...but we will see activity
ending from northwest to southeast as the night wears on. This is in
response to developing northwest flow in the low and mid levels.
Rainfall amounts will generally be less than a quarter inch. Low
temperatures will be in the 40s. Trends in the data suggest the flow
aloft will remain from the northwest on Wednesday with a gradual
backing to the west later in the day. This should keep much of the
day dry with an increased chance for showers later in the day. Highs
will generally be in the mid to upper 60s.
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 410 AM EDT Monday...As the flow aloft continues to slowly back
to the west and southwest Wednesday night we should see a northwest
to southeast gradient of precipitation. Precipitation chances will
be in the slight chance category up near the Canadian Border with
the highest chances down across Rutland and Windsor counties. Once
again rainfall amounts will be less than a quarter inch. A more
pronounced southwest flow aloft pattern does not develop until
Thursday night...so precipitation chances during the day on Thursday
will be limited. Better chances develop over the entire area
Thursday night as dynamic support increases in response to a
shortwave trough approaching from Canada. Expecting showers to be
likely for most of the area and have included a slight chance of
thunder. Some lingering showers Friday morning...but as shortwave
trough exits area to the east drier air moves in and looking for no
precipitation Friday afternoon through Saturday. Highs on Wednesday
will be in the 65 to 70 degree range and from 70 to 75 on Thursday.
Friday through Sunday will see highs generally at or slightly below
.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Through 06Z Tuesday...High pressure overhead will lead to
widespread VFR conditions throughout the forecast period. A weak
front will move through between 15Z and 00Z, allowing for the
development of some mid-level clouds. Skies will trend clear
again after 00Z behind the front. Light and variable winds
through 12Z will trend northwesterly 5-10 kts after 12Z,
returning to light and variable after 00Z.
Tuesday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight chance
SHRA, Patchy BR.
Tuesday Night: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Chance SHRA.
Wednesday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance SHRA.
Wednesday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Likely
Thursday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance SHRA.
Thursday Night: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Chance SHRA.
Friday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance SHRA.