200
FXUS61 KBTV 011842
AFDBTV
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
142 PM EST Sun Mar 1 2026
.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
As of 132 PM EST Sunday...
A Cold Weather Advisory has been issued for the northern
Adirondacks tonight from 1 AM to 8 AM Monday. Much of the area
will be below zero tonight. The southward trends in
precipitation have stabilized, and there`s been little change to
snowfall amounts in southern Vermont.
&&
.KEY MESSAGES...
As of 132 PM EST Sunday...
1. Very cold temperatures expected tonight, with cool drainage
basins of the Adirondacks likely to approach -20 F, which elevates
the risk of hypothermia. A Cold Weather Advisory is in effect for
the northern Adirondacks from 1 AM to 8 AM Monday.
2. Light snow of 1 to 3 inches likely across the southern half
of Vermont for Tuesday evening into early Wednesday morning.
3. An active weather pattern is expected to continue, with
several chances for precipitation and warmer temperatures.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
As of 132 PM EST Sunday...
KEY MESSAGE 1: Right now, it`s a brilliantly sunny afternoon.
Northerly flow is pushing cool, dry air into the region. A tiny
strip of reflectivity suggests some shallow moisture may still
allow some light snow showers near Jay Peak through evening, but
everyone else will be dry. Surface dewpoints are in the single
digits and falling below zero. So once a strong 1038mb high
shifts overhead later tonight, the light coating of snow this
morning will likely help produce very efficient radiational
cooling. MOS based products take sheltered hollows of the
northern Adirondacks well into the teens below zero, and recent
HRRR highlights microclimates sinking below - 20 F. HREF and
REFS indicate about a 50-70% chance of -20 F, whether by wind
chill or air temperature overnight. It`s right at the cusp, but
given the recent warmth and since this likely will be the final
real dip of the season, a Cold Weather Advisory has been
published for the northern Adirondacks. Even outside the
Adirondacks, almost the entire region is likely to experience
below zero readings today. The extended forecast guidance looks
warm. So this is probably the final below zero readings for the
season. Bundle up to avoid hypothermia for Monday morning.
KEY MESSAGE 2: A subtle shortwave and very weak surface low will track
along a thermal gradient. How much moisture can lift north of the
boundary against a 1028-1030mb surface high around James Bay remains
in question. The southern range of model scenarios for Tuesday
evening still suggest the potential the international border
receives little to no snow, while northern range tracks at least
push snow all the way to the international border for a couple
hours. Up north, the initially dry, clear conditions will promote
warming into the upper 30s. Precipitation at the onset may contain
some mix of rain in the warmer valleys. Farther south, a warm nose
will possibly infiltrate, with forecast soundings at KRUT indicating
a shallow 1-1.5 C warm nose moving in after sunset Tuesday, which
might suggest some sleet or freezing rain could mix in. At this
stage, did add some sleet wording, since the majority of guidance
envelope is south, and that everyone else should remain snowy. That
said, the combination of weak forcing and fast forward motion means
about 1-3" across southern Vermont and less than 1" in northern New
York and northern Vermont. Flow will remain zonal and become more
southwesterly underneath clearing skies. So any snow around is
likely to quickly melt on Wednesday beneath the incoming 40s.
KEY MESSAGE 3: An active weather pattern is expected to continue for
the later half of the week into the weekend, although at this time
range there continues to be a lot of uncertainty regarding
precipitation type and timing, with global deterministic guidance
showing a wide range of solutions. The predominant precipitation
type during this time period will be rain across the entire forecast
area, however some freezing rain will be possible. The most likely
period of any freezing rain and mixed precipitation will be on
Friday for locations east of the Green Mountains where cold air at
the surface is more likely to remain.
In addition to the chances of precipitation chances, temperatures
look to trend warmer throughout the week, with high temperatures
well above normal by Friday. Current temperature forecast shows high
temperatures climbing well into the 40s on Friday, with many
locations hitting the 50s on Saturday, much warmer than the
climatological high temperatures of low to upper 30s. With these
warmer temperatures and some possible rainfall, the potential for
any breakup ice jams exists, especially with the extensive ice
coverage this winter, so trends will need to be monitored as we get
closer.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Through 18Z Monday...VFR conditions currently prevail across all
terminals, and are expected to continue throughout the forecast
period. Skies remain mostly clear across the region, with just a
few scattered clouds generally above 3500 ft AGL, with these sky
conditions expected over the next 24 hours. Northerly winds will
generally continue to be a bit breezy over the next few hours, with
gusts of 15 to 25 knots possible. Gusts should taper off towards
00Z, with winds trending calm overnight.
Outlook...
Monday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday: VFR. Chance RA, Chance SN.
Tuesday Night: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Chance SN.
Wednesday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday Night: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Slight
chance RA, Slight chance FZRA.
Thursday: Mainly MVFR, with areas IFR possible. Chance RA.
Thursday Night: Mainly IFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance RA,
Chance FZRA.
Friday: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Chance RA, Chance
FZRA.
&&
.EQUIPMENT...
The KBTV ASOS has suffered a communications failure. The issue
has been diagnosed, but there is currently no estimated time of
return to service. The affected communications line is not
serviced by the NWS. Terminal Aerodrome Forecasts will continue,
but regular observations may not be available.
NOAA Weather Radio station WXM-44, transmitting from Mt.
Ascutney, Vermont, on frequency 162.475 MHz is non- operational
at this time. NWS technicians have diagnosed the problem, but
repairs will likely not be able to occur for quite some time due
to circumstances beyond our control. Therefore, the time of
return to service is currently unknown. The following NOAA
Weather Radio transmitters may be able to provide service during
this outage: WWG 50 from Burke Mtn, VT at 162.425 MHz and WNG
546 from Hanover, NH at 162.525 MHz.
The Colchester Reef meteorological station is out of service.
This site is not serviced by the NWS and there isn`t an
estimated return to service at present. Please contact us if you
observe winds significantly deviating from the recreational
forecast.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...Cold Weather Advisory from 1 AM to 8 AM EST Monday for
NYZ029>031.
&&
$$
WHAT HAS CHANGED...Haynes
DISCUSSION...Haynes/Kremer
AVIATION...Kremer
EQUIPMENT...NWS BTV
|
