076
FXUS61 KBTV 061050
AFDBTV
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
550 AM EST Fri Feb 6 2026
.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
As of 128 AM EST Friday...
The Extreme Cold Watch has been upgraded to an Extreme Cold Warning
for the St Lawrence Valley and northern Adirondacks. Areas from the
Champlain Valley eastward have been upgraded to a Cold Weather
Advisory.
&&
.KEY MESSAGES...
As of 128 AM EST Friday...
1. Snow showers tonight into Saturday afternoon will create
hazardous travel conditions. The snow may be briefly moderate to
heavy at times, with a general 1 to 3 inches of accumulation
expected, with locally higher amounts possible.
2. Dangerously cold wind chills of 20 to 40 below expected over
the weekend.
3. Moderating temperatures and chances of snow showers for the
rest of the week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
As of 128 AM EST Friday...
KEY MESSAGE 1: High pressure will keep the weather tranquil
much of the day today, with just increasing mid/high clouds.
Given the bitter cold this morning (current temperatures are in
the single digits above and below zero) and light winds,
daylight may well reveal that Lake Champlain has completely
frozen over. This would be the first complete freezing of Lake
Champlain since March 8, 2019.
With that aside, the main focus for tonight and Saturday will
be widespread snow associated with an arctic cold front. This
feature and its parent clipper low will sweep out of Canada and
across our region from northwest to southeast tonight and
Saturday, with spreading a swath of snow across the area. The
frontal boundary will be quite sharp with strong frontogenesis
and frontal convergence. At the same time, the overnight/early
morning timing of the frontal passage and the lack of
significant areas of open water on the Great Lakes will limit
instability and available moisture. Hence while true snow
squalls aren`t anticipated, snow could be briefly moderate to
heavy at times, especially along the front. Latest HREF guidance
indicates snowfall rates could approach 0.5 in/hr, with the
greatest risk of higher snowfall rates generally 9 pm Friday to
9 am Saturday. The snow will be light and fluffy with snow
ratios of 18- 20:1 or better. Flow will turn to the
west/northwest behind the front and strong cold air advection
will allow gusty winds to develop Saturday and Saturday night
(see Key Message 2 on additional information regarding cold and
winds), so would anticipate areas of blowing snow, especially in
open/exposed locations. All this points toward hazardous
travel, with roads becoming snow covered and visibility likely
reduced to 1/2 mile or less at times, even once the snow ends.
Snow will gradually taper to an end during the day Saturday with
much drier air spreading in behind the cold front, but the
favored upslope areas of the northern Adirondacks/Greens will
likely see snow showers continue well into the afternoon.
Overall anticipate a widespread 1-3 inches of snowfall, with
2-4+ inches in the higher terrain and/or western slopes where
the snow will linger longest.
KEY MESSAGE 2: Temperatures will plummet late tonight into
Saturday as as the aforementioned arctic cold front sweeps
across the North Country and Vermont. Overall
expectations/forecast hasn`t changed with this package. The cold
air arrives in northern NY late this evening into the
overnight, dropping temperatures from the mid teens around
midnight to near/below zero by daybreak. Areas from the
Champlain Valley eastward will squeak out early daytime highs in
the teens Saturday morning before the cold air arrives;
anticipate temperatures to of -10F to 0F areawide by sunset.
Brisk northwest winds of 10 to 15 mph with gusts of 20 to 30 mph
will combine with the cold ambient temperatures to produce wind
chills 15 to 25 below zero during the daylight hours Saturday.
Winds will be slow to abate overnight Saturday night; while
overnight lows will generally be 10 to 20 below zero, wind
chills of -20 to -40F below are expected. High pressure will
nose into the region Sunday, allowing winds to gradually
subside. While it will still be very cold (highs will only be in
the single digits), wind chills will improve through the
afternoon. At this time, the coldest conditions will be across
northern NY, particularly in the Adirondacks and northern St
Lawrence Valley, where wind chills of -30 to -40F are expected.
With little change in the overall forecast, had enough
confidence in these bitterly cold wind chills to upgrade the
Extreme Cold Watch to an Extreme Cold Warning. Further east,
across the Champlain Valley and northern/central VT, wind chills
are not expected to be quite as extreme. This too hasn`t
changed overly much. Isolated pockets of colder conditions are
possible, but confidence in areal and/or temporal coverage of
wind chills exceeding -30F (Warning criteria) remains low.
However, -20F to -30F is pretty much a certain thing, so the
Watch was upgraded to a Cold Weather Advisory for these areas.
If the Champlain Valley/VT start to trend colder, additional
upgrades to Extreme Cold Warnings may be needed. However, don`t
focus on Advisory vs Warning overly much; it`s going to be
dangerously cold, regardless. Anyone with outdoor plans should
consider altering and/or delaying outdoor activities this
weekend. If you must be outdoors, please make sure to dress for
very cold conditions.
High pressure briefly builds overhead late Sunday into Sunday night,
before moving east on Monday. As such winds will slacken, but giving
way to better radiational cooling conditions. There are some
indications that there could be lingering cloud cover over the
higher terrain Sunday night/Monday morning which would limit cooling
potential. Still, overnight lows are expected to be 5 to 15 below
zero areawide, and can`t rule out some locations approaching -20F.
Additional cold headlines may be needed.
KEY MESSAGE 3: Closed low in the Maritimes will shift east Tue-
Wed allowing another shortwave and surface reflection to move
across Wed with some scattered snow showers. This shortwave will
likely continue to strengthen somewhere across New
England/eastern Quebec to continue cyclonic flow and chance of
snow showers through Thursday night - Friday, mainly in the
northern, higher terrain.
Airmass modification during the week with temperatures
approaching seasonable normals by the end of the work week.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Through 12Z Saturday...VFR conditons expected through 21z
across the entire area with clouds increasing and lowering
throughout the period.
Light snow moves into northern NY sites just prior to 00z Sat
and across VT between 00-03z Sat. MVFR-IFR conditons with
snow...worsening conditons with time with gradual improvement to
MVFR-VFR likely after 12z Sat.
Winds will primarily be less than 10 knots across the entire
CWA through 06z Sat then arctic front moves through northern NY
between 06-12z and VT 11-18z. As the front moves through winds
will become NW 10-16kts with g25kts.
Outlook...
Saturday: Mainly MVFR, with local VFR possible. Chance SN.
Saturday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Sunday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Sunday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Monday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Monday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
&&
.EQUIPMENT...
NOAA Weather Radio station WXM-44, transmitting from Mt.
Ascutney, Vermont, on frequency 162.475 MHz is non- operational
at this time. NWS technicians have diagnosed the problem, but
repairs will likely not be able to occur for quite some time due
to circumstances beyond our control. Therefore, the time of
return to service is currently unknown. The following NOAA
Weather Radio transmitters may be able to provide service during
this outage: WWG 50 from Burke Mtn, VT at 162.425 MHz and WNG
546 from Hanover, NH at 162.525 MHz.
The Colchester Reef meteorological station is out of service.
This site is not serviced by the NWS and there isn`t an
estimated return to service at present. Please contact us if
you observe winds significantly deviating from the recreational
forecast.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...Cold Weather Advisory from 6 PM Saturday to 1 PM EST Sunday
for VTZ001>011-016>021.
NY...Extreme Cold Warning from 7 AM Saturday to 1 PM EST Sunday for
NYZ026-027-029>031-034-087.
Cold Weather Advisory from 6 PM Saturday to 1 PM EST Sunday
for NYZ028-035.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Hastings/SLW
AVIATION...SLW
EQUIPMENT...NWS BTV
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