167
FXUS61 KBTV 090726
AFDBTV
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
226 AM EST Mon Feb 9 2026
.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
As of 225 AM EST Monday...
Increased storm total snowfall for Tues through Weds and placed
heavy snow at times associated with burst of snow on Tues
aftn/evening.
&&
.KEY MESSAGES...
As of 225 AM EST Monday...
1. A widespread light to locally moderate long duration
snowfall is expected Tues through Weds with storm total snowfall of
2 to 5 inches, except locally higher in the mountains. A quick burst
of heavy snow could impact the Tuesday evening commute.
2. Temperatures will be seasonable through most of the week,
then less cold over the weekend. Many locations are likely to reach
32 degrees for the first time in over three weeks.
3. A higher impact, lower probability winter storm continues to
be monitored for Sunday into Monday.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
As of 225 AM EST Monday...
KEY MESSAGE 1: Currently a Cold Weather Advisory continues for the
entire cwa with temps/wind chills between -15F and -30F. SLK has
been down to -24F, while BTV is at -9F. Given the shallow and sharp
thermal inversion associated with high pres, temp vary greatly acrs
our region this morning based on location/elevation. Temps should
warm quickly into the teens this aftn with plenty of sunshine and
developing light southerly winds.
Tonight the challenge is ribbon of mid/upper lvl clouds and
potential impacts on temps, along with light south/southwest flow
developing. Based on previous nights have trended toward the cooler
MAV guidance again, especially given dry sfc dwpts and potential for
mostly clear skies in the evening. Feel temps drop quickly before
axis of mid/upper lvl clouds lift from southwest to northeast acrs
our cwa. Lows generally 5F to -15F acrs our fa.
A widespread light to moderate long duration snowfall of 2 to 5
inches with localized higher amounts in the mountains is expected
late Tues through Weds. Guidance continues to support a burst of
heavy snowfall associated with waa lift btwn 2 PM and 10 PM Tues.
Soundings show deep uvv`s from 2000 ft thru 20,000 ft, along with
deepening moisture profiles, but a relative small DGZ zone around
10kft. The synoptic scale lift is produced by a ribbon of strong 850
to 700mb fgen forcing, a developing 850mb southwest jet of 30 to 45
knots , and left front quad of 250mb jet of 100-120 knots, wl
promote strong ascent acrs our region on Tues aftn/evening. HREF
shows mean 1 hourly snowfall rates of 1.0 to 1.5", with probs of 70
to 90% of 1 inch per hour rates on Tues aftn/evening. This progged
band is poorly timed for the Tues evening commute, especially
locally here in the CPV. Expecting a 1 to 3 hour band of heavy
snowfall to lift from southwest to northeast acrs our cwa, with a
quick 1 to 3 inches anticipated.
After initial waa snowfall, mid/upper lvl dry slot tries to advect
into our central/southern cwa, especially as closed 850 to 500mb
cyclonic circulation and associated 1000mb sfc low pres tracks along
and north of the International Border. In addition, brief window of
southwest downslope winds develop, which wl result in mostly trrn
driven precip with much less coverage on Tues night into Weds
morning. As sfc low pres deepens in the Gulf of Maine, northwest
upslope flow develops under moderate llvl caa by Weds. This combined
with blocked flow with Froude number <0.5 supports intervals of
snow showers with additional accumulation likely, especially
northern Dacks into parts of the central/northern Greens and the
eastern CPV. Feel GFS/NAM solutions are a bit aggressive with storm
total qpf/snowfall given northern stream system and tendency to over
forecast qpf associated with waa lift. Have trended toward a
ECMWF/CMC and NBM blend, which support 0.15 to 0.25" valleys to 0.35
to 0.50" northern Dacks into the central/northern Greens. This would
result in storm totals snowfall of 2 to 5 inches, except 4 to 8
inches northern Dacks and Greens of central/northern VT. NBM prob of
qpf>0.5" is only 20 to 30%, while EPS mean is 0.30 to 0.45" and
operational ECMWF is 0.35" to locally 0.50", which seems very
reasonable. Temps warm into the 20s on Tues and mid 20s to lower 30s
on Weds, with summits near 20F, while lows are mostly in the teens.
A winter weather advisory will probably be needed for most of the
area.
KEY MESSAGE 2: In the longer range of the forecast, Thursday through
Friday looks to continue show temperatures near normal, supported by
ensemble guidance 925 millibar temperatures in the 30-40th
percentile. The trough axis will be to our east, which limits
chances for widespread precipitation with any light snow being
primarily in the northern Greens. A bump up in temperatures for the
weekend is likely as heights rise ahead of a southern stream low
pressure system. Probabilities of temperatures reaching 32 increase
markedly over the weekend, mainly in the lowest elevations on
Saturday to near 50%, and then into the 50-80% range on Sunday in
most valley locations including those closer to 1500 feet elevation.
If temperatures do not reach 32 earlier in the week, this thaw will
end the longest deep freeze since the 2014-2015 winter. In
Burlington, the last day with a temperature breaking 32 degrees was
January 22nd; sub-freezing temperature streaks surpassing 21 days
are fairly unusual in the Burlington area, last happening January-
February 2015 and only occurring 20 times going back across the last
141 winter seasons.
KEY MESSAGE 3: We continue to monitor the potential for a more
substantial storm that could track northeastward along the east
coast early next week. A favorable track would lead to another
period of widespread snow. The probability of such a storm track
remains low, associated with poor run-to-run model consistency and
large variability among guidance, especially between the GEFS and
EPS. The grand ensemble probability of 24 hour precipitation greater
than 0.25", a decent proxy for a significant snowfall, peaks roughly
in the Sunday 7 PM through Monday 7 PM timeframe at about 20-30%,
with highest values in our far western and southern areas. Of four
model clusters which comprise this grand ensemble, precipitation
chances vary substantially. The two most interesting ones include
one model cluster, made up of almost half of the GEFS members, with
chances of only 0.01" under 30%. However, in contrast to this dry
scenario, a wet cluster produces a rather high snowfall, with a
warning level storm total (widespread 7+ inches) indicated in its
mean value. This cluster`s 500 millibar pattern supports a slow and
more amplified storm track and is made up of a small proportion of
mainly EPS and GEPS members. Note the character of snow could be on
the wetter side given the aforementioned less cold air in place
ahead of this system. While unlikely, the potential for a heavier,
wet snow does exist, so we`ll keep on eye on this scenario moving
forward.
&&
.AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Through 06Z Tuesday...Main potential impacts look to be related to
marginal LLWS, possibly at MPV but more likely occurring at RUT, now
through about 12Z as surface winds remain light. The stronger
northwesterly flow over central and eastern portions of Vermont will
diminish after that time, with surface high continuing to build in
from the west. Said high pressure is leading to little in the way of
moisture, but have continued to hint at a possible IFR cloud
deck/fog at SLK around sunrise with favorable light, and
southwesterly, winds aloft in the Adirondacks. Otherwise, VFR
conditions through the period and terrain driven, light winds will
dominate.
Outlook...
Tuesday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SN.
Tuesday Night: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Likely SN,
Chance SHSN.
Wednesday: Mainly MVFR, with local VFR possible. Chance SHSN.
Wednesday Night: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. Slight
chance SN.
Thursday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Thursday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Friday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. NO SIG WX.
&&
.EQUIPMENT...
NOAA Weather Radio station WXM-44, transmitting from Mt.
Ascutney, Vermont, on frequency 162.475 MHz is non- operational
at this time. NWS technicians have diagnosed the problem, but
repairs will likely not be able to occur for quite some time due
to circumstances beyond our control. Therefore, the time of
return to service is currently unknown. The following NOAA
Weather Radio transmitters may be able to provide service during
this outage: WWG 50 from Burke Mtn, VT at 162.425 MHz and WNG
546 from Hanover, NH at 162.525 MHz.
The Colchester Reef meteorological station is out of service.
This site is not serviced by the NWS and there isn`t an
estimated return to service at present. Please contact us if
you observe winds significantly deviating from the recreational
forecast.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...Cold Weather Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for
VTZ001>011-016>021.
NY...Cold Weather Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for
NYZ026>031-034-035-087.
&&
$$
WHAT HAS CHANGED...Taber
DISCUSSION...Taber/Kutikoff
AVIATION...Kutikoff
EQUIPMENT...NWS BTV
|
