160
FXUS61 KBTV 110619
AFDBTV
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
219 AM EDT Sat Jul 11 2026
.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
As of 217 AM EDT Saturday...
No significant changes to the forecast.
&&
.KEY MESSAGES...
As of 217 AM EDT Saturday...
1. Seasonable and dry conditions are expected today and
tomorrow with less humidity.
2. Heat and humidity will briefly build back in to start next
week, peaking on Tuesday.
3. A sharp cold front will pass south Tuesday night and
Wednesday, and then bring more seasonable weather into the latter
half of the week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
As of 217 AM EDT Saturday...
KEY MESSAGE 1: Ridging centered over the Great Lakes will begin to
build into the region today with winds remaining from the north.
With the north winds, temperatures today will be much cooler than
recent days, only reaching the mid 70s to low 80s. Dewpoints will
help create a comfortable day with values in the mid 40s to near 50.
It will be a perfect weekend to get out and about. A light north to
south channeled wind in the Champlain Valley will also linger
(around 15 MPH) today and tomorrow before flow shifts to the
southwest by the start of next week. As the high edges closer, skies
will remain clear at night, with good radiational cooling. Overnight
lows will dip towards the 50s, with perhaps some 40s in the usual
cold hollows. In the Champlain Valley, warm Lake Champlain water
temperatures will likely keep the surrounding locations to near 60
tonight through Sunday night. With the strong radiational cooling,
some fog may be possible in the usual river valleys into this
morning, tonight, and tomorrow night due to the recent rains and
clearing skies. Any fog formation will become more delayed in time
each subsequent night as we become detached from rain.
KEY MESSAGE 2: Temperatures and the humidity will begin to rebound back
up to start off next week as an area of high pressure crests over
the region by Tuesday. This warm up will be relatively short as
compared to a few weeks ago, and only last a day. Temperatures begin
the climb on Monday with winds shifting to the south and west with
highs in the mid to upper 80s. Models still continue to have high
agreement in anomalous warmth by Tuesday as ridging crests overhead.
Thankfully, the humidity will not be as high as our last heatwave
due to a displacement from good moisture advection off the Gulf or
Pacific. However, some dewpoint advection is still anticipated with
southwest flow Tuesday, keeping uncomfortable heat past sunset
Tuesday. Contrary to the current NBM which is running hot compared
to consensus, GEFS 850mb temperatures are only 20-23C which would
suggest highs on Tuesday around the low to mid 90s. With any
moisture advection, heat index values would be highest in the
Champlain Valley, eastern Windsor County, and perhaps the St.
Lawrence Valley (where dewpoints will be maximized). The latest
thinking is that marginal Heat Advisory criteria will be reached;
maximum heat index values could be in the middle 90s in the
Champlain Valley and Lower Connecticut Valley with lower 90s in most
other valley locations. Since this is expected to be a single hot
day, heat-health impacts aren`t anticipated to be as significant as
a longer duration event but will be meaningful for vulnerable
populations.
While the current forecast looks to remain dry through Tuesday,
there are some ensembles denoting a few chances for rain.
Ensembles denote a weak shortwave passage Monday night into
Tuesday which could bring brief light rain to the northern
Champlain Valley. Though confidence is relatively low with only
a 10-20% chance of precipitation with dry low levels. Lastly,
given how hot and humid Tuesday will be, some instability cannot
be ruled out, particularly over the terrain. GFS soundings show
up to 1500J/kg of elevated instability. However, limitations
will be a strong low to mid level EML which may inhibit any
convective initiation altogether, in addition to continued dry
low levels. These small scale features will become more apparent
in future forecast updates.
KEY MESSAGE 3: After the hot conditions on Tuesday, a sharp boundary
will pass south overnight into Wednesday. A narrow tongue of
enhanced instability will exist ahead of that boundary, but the air
mass overhead will be on the dry side and better forcing appears
more likely to our east. But if there is any activity, we could have
some nighttime rumbles.
The boundary decelerates in crossing the area during the day on
Wednesday. So we may have a sharp north-south temperature contrast,
where areas south are still running upper 80s to mid 90s, while
areas north will be in the lower 80s.
By Wednesday night, the boundary should be pushing well south, and
then we`ll have some refreshingly seasonable weather once again.
PWATs will be running well below normal, but if the upper low that`s
forecast to develop gets trapped farther south, we may still have a
few showers tied to it such that we can`t totally promise
accompanying dry conditions. Seasonable to possibly below normal
temperatures are expected into the weekend.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Through 06Z Sunday...Falling dewpoints are competing with
temperatures falling below crossover temperatures and recent rain.
It`s keeping fog rather sparse, but river valley fog is still
certainly possible, especially 8z-11z. After 11-12z, fog will lift
across the region, with mostly clear skies. Winds are currently
light and variable, and will become north 6-11 knots 15z-22z, and
then fall back to light and variable. Conditions are expected to
also be drier, and so nighttime fog appears less likely beyond 06z
Sunday.
Outlook...
Sunday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Sunday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Monday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Monday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday Night: VFR. Chance TSRA, Slight chance SHRA.
Wednesday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.
&&
$$
WHAT HAS CHANGED...Danzig
DISCUSSION...Danzig/Haynes
AVIATION...Haynes
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