320
FXUS61 KBTV 201933
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
233 PM EST Fri Feb 20 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
As of 233 PM EST Friday...

Winter Storm Warnings were expanded into Grand Isle and Washington
counties in Vermont. Confidence has increased in very heavy snowfall
rates of 1 to 2" per hour coinciding with the evening commute for
much of the region.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
As of 212 PM EST Friday...

1. A period of heavy, wet snow this evening will cause
treacherous travel, with additional lighter snow continuing
overnight before gradually ending tomorrow.

2. Low pressure system will track from the North Carolina coast
northeastward towards the Gulf of Maine by Monday evening. This
system will have little impact on our area with just a chance for
light snow across southern Vermont.

3. Light snow with a clipper low expected Wednesday into
Wednesday night.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
As of 212 PM EST Friday...

KEY MESSAGE 1: Discussion: A dynamic low pressure system is
bringing us a potent, short duration snowstorm today. As a
large, laterally translating snowband continues to move
northward across the entire region this evening, intense
precipitation will support a changeover of any light rain and
wintry mix in portions of southern St. Lawrence County, and
southern portions of the Champlain and Upper Valleys. GOES-16
day cloud phase satellite imagery shows unusually widespread
glaciated cloud tops normally seen in winter weather within snow
squalls rather than frontal precipitation. The associated
elevated instability with these tall clouds supports very heavy
precipitation rates, which has been observed to our south in
Albany early this afternoon where 2" fell within an hour. As of
this writing webcam images show roads quickly going from wet to
snowy with visibilities falling to a 1/2 mile in the Rutland
area, and these conditions can be expected to continue expanding
northward to make the afternoon and evening commute very
hazardous. Regardless of Advisory or Warning, difficult travel
due to low visibilities and slippery roads is expected tonight
while the heaviest snowfall occurs. Widespread 4 to 10 inches of
snow are expected by tomorrow morning; areas that see closer to
10 inches may see isolated power outages, but snow ratios are
expected to be greater than 10:1 for enough of the event that
these impacts should be limited.

The bulk of the snow will gradually wind down from southwest to
northeast tonight following a roughly 6 hour period of moderate to
heavy snowfall rates. Shallow east/southeast flow during at least
the early part of the event will produce some terrain-driven effects
with enhancement of precipitation on east facing slopes and
shadowing in the western slopes, but this effect should diminish
when the closed upper level low approaches from the west. One
interesting feature of this event will be the sharply cooling
temperatures late tonight primarily in our northern areas as
north/northeasterly flow strengthens. This temperature gradient and
the cold air advection during the day on Saturday will lead to some
drying but also steep lapse rates near the surface to support snow
showers chances after widespread snow ends. The colder air mass will
set the stage for a seasonably chilly Saturday night as temperatures
slip back into the teens and single digits.

KEY MESSAGE 2: Low pressure will track along the New England coast
Sunday into Monday. Precipitation will stay pretty close to the low
center, therefore only expect an increase in clouds for our region
along with some light snow possible in southern Vermont. High
temperatures Sunday and Monday will be in the lower 30s, with lows
in the teens.

KEY MESSAGE 3: Next low pressure clipper system to bring chances for
light snow to our region will pass through Wednesday into Wednesday
night. This snow will be a bit more widespread, but at this time
looks to only bring light accumulations. Temperatures over the next
week will feature highs in the 20s and 30s, with lows in the single
digits and teens with exception of Wednesday night which will only
dip into the 20s with clouds and light snow ongoing.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Through 18Z Saturday...Rapidly changeable aviation conditions
anticipated this aftn/evening as band of moderate to heavy snow
lifts across our taf sites. Initially conditions are VFR, but as
precip arrives expect IFR vis with MVFR cigs with some rain/snow
possible at RUT/BTV and MSS. Any mixed precip will quickly
change to all snow by 21/22z with a period of moderate to heavy
snow expected between 22z thru 02z with LIFR/VLIFR conditions
likely. Vis will be between 1/4SM to 1/2SM with cigs ovc008 to
ovc015. Conditions slowly improve to mostly IFR vis after 03z
with gradual improvement to MVFR by 12z Saturday and a mix of
MVFR/VFR by 18z Saturday with light snow ending across our taf
sites.



Outlook...

Saturday Night: VFR. Slight chance SN.
Sunday: VFR. Slight chance SN.
Sunday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight chance
SN.
Monday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight chance SN.
Monday Night: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. Slight chance
SN.
Tuesday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. Chance SN.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
The KMPV ASOS has suffered a communications failure. The issue
has been diagnosed, but there is currently no estimated time of
return to service. Terminal Aerodrome Forecasts will continue,
but amendments to those forecasts will be suspended.

NOAA Weather Radio station WXM-44, transmitting from Mt.
Ascutney, Vermont, on frequency 162.475 MHz is non- operational
at this time. NWS technicians have diagnosed the problem, but
repairs will likely not be able to occur for quite some time due
to circumstances beyond our control. Therefore, the time of
return to service is currently unknown. The following NOAA
Weather Radio transmitters may be able to provide service during
this outage: WWG 50 from Burke Mtn, VT at 162.425 MHz and WNG
546 from Hanover, NH at 162.525 MHz.

The Colchester Reef meteorological station is out of service.
This site is not serviced by the NWS and there isn`t an
estimated return to service at present. Please contact us if you
observe winds significantly deviating from the recreational
forecast.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...Winter Storm Warning until 10 AM EST Saturday for VTZ001-008-
     010-018>021.
     Winter Weather Advisory until 10 AM EST Saturday for
     VTZ002>007-009-011-016-017.
NY...Winter Storm Warning until 10 AM EST Saturday for NYZ026-028-
     030-031-034-035.
     Winter Weather Advisory until 10 AM EST Saturday for NYZ027-
     029-087.

&&

$$

WHAT HAS CHANGED...Kutikoff
DISCUSSION...Neiles/Kutikoff
AVIATION...Taber
EQUIPMENT...NWS BTV