279
FXUS61 KBTV 261833
AFDBTV
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
133 PM EST Thu Feb 26 2026
.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
As of 132 PM EST Thursday...
No significant changes
&&
.KEY MESSAGES...
As of 132 PM EST Thursday...
1. A couple chances of light precipitation through the weekend.
2. Gusty winds Friday night into Saturday.
3. Sharply colder temperatures will round out the weekend, then
turning warmer with several chance for precipitation by the middle
of the week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
As of 132 PM EST Thursday...
KEY MESSAGE 1: A warm front passes through tomorrow, and while the best
dynamics stay to the north, a very light area of snow looks to pass
through along the international border. With temperatures around and
above freezing, no accumulation is expected. A prefrontal trough and
subsequent cold front pass through Saturday and Saturday evening.
These will cause the chance for a few elevation dependent snow/rain
showers. Higher chances are farther north and in the higher terrain.
Overall, only a couple hundreths of an inch of liquid equivalent are
expected and with temperatures above freezing, no snowfall
accumulations are expected outside the high peaks and existing snow.
While temperatures should rise into the 40s for most places, wet
bulbing in any precipitation will notably cool temperatures and snow
showers will be able to occur in places with temperatures several
degrees above freezing. All rain is likely below 1,000 feet.
KEY MESSAGE 2: A strong clipper passes by well to the north Friday
night into Saturday, causing gusty southerly winds and significant
warm air advection. Its pressure looks to drop to around 980 mb,
causing a southerly low level jet to pass overhead. Gusty channeled
flow in the Champlain Valley and downsloping winds across the
northern Adirondacks are likely. Gusts in the 30 to 40 mph range are
likely in the favored areas, while they should only be in the 20 to
30 mph range elsewhere.
KEY MESSAGE 3: Following a strong cold front Sunday, temperatures will
sharply fall to unseasonably cold levels. Most area are expected to
see Sunday night low temperatures below zero, with most of the area
between 80-100% chance of minimum temperatures below zero based on
the NBM. Furthermore, most of the area currently has a 40-60% of
lows below -5F. A strong 1040mb high pressure will begin to build
into the region late Sunday night with 850mb temperatures progged in
the -20C to -22C range in the GEFS and EPS which would further
support below zero temperatures Sunday night. The high shifts
overhead during the day Monday which should dry out the region with
mainly clear skies for at least the northern 50% of the region. Some
mid to high clouds are possible in southern Vermont from a southern
stream of energy across the Mid Atlantic, but precipitation from
this system should stay well to the south. Temperatures Monday will
remain cold with highs only in the teens to low 20s. However, with
clearing skies, and an increasing sun angle, midday feels like
temperatures should feel relatively comfortable. The high will exit
the area Tuesday as brief ridging and southerly warm advection
translate northward. Temperatures will climb into the mid to upper
30s, and perhaps 40 by mid week. There is some indications that
precipitation may ride along the ridge Tuesday night as diurnal
cooling takes place with a shot at some snow. The GFS remains
aggressive with a low riding along the International border with
some dynamic cooling favoring snow at the onset, turning to rain as
southerly waa overcomes the leading cold air. The ECMWF favors a
more southerly low track with only the lower third of the region
seeing precipitation, though remaining cold for snow through the
event. There is still a lot uncertainty and considerable model
spread with the low track which in turn will have considerable
impacts on our precipitation types. Aside from the precipitation,
temperatures look to favor at or above normal through mid-week which
would lead to some slow snow melt below 1500ft agl. However,
dewpoints look to remain below freezing, which would limit our
efficient melting and lead to a slow snow melt and ripening of the
surface snowpack. No concerns are currently expected with any melt.
A quick return of winter turning to a taste of spring is our theme
for this weekend into next week.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Through 18Z Friday...Mainly VFR conditions are expected. A weak
frontal boundary is washing out across the region, and only near
the front at KMSS is there any snow showers. Only noted any snow
showers possible there through 19z, as activity looks likely to
lift north in the next hour or so. Breezing west-southwest to
west-northwest winds at 7-15 knots sustained, with gusts 18-25
knots have been taking place. Winds will become 7 knots or less
around 21-22z and become northwesterly before trending light and
variable after 00z. Cloud bases will be at or above 4000 ft agl
going up to 7000-10000 ft agl or clearing. By 12z Friday, winds
will become southerly with speeds returning to 7-15 knots by
15z. Virga is possible as mid-level moisture moves over dry
low-level air, but did note a PROB30 at KMSS 12z-18z.
Outlook...
Friday Night: VFR. Windy with gusts to 30 kt. Chance SHRA.
Saturday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Windy with gusts
to 30 kt. NO SIG WX.
Saturday Night: VFR. Chance SN.
Sunday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SN.
Sunday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Monday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Monday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday: VFR. Slight chance SN.
&&
.EQUIPMENT...
The KMPV ASOS has suffered a communications failure. The issue
has been diagnosed, but there is currently no estimated time of
return to service. This communications line is not serviced by
the NWS. Terminal Aerodrome Forecasts will continue, but
amendments to those forecasts will be suspended.
NOAA Weather Radio station WXM-44, transmitting from Mt.
Ascutney, Vermont, on frequency 162.475 MHz is non- operational
at this time. NWS technicians have diagnosed the problem, but
repairs will likely not be able to occur for quite some time due
to circumstances beyond our control. Therefore, the time of
return to service is currently unknown. The following NOAA
Weather Radio transmitters may be able to provide service during
this outage: WWG 50 from Burke Mtn, VT at 162.425 MHz and WNG
546 from Hanover, NH at 162.525 MHz.
The Colchester Reef meteorological station is out of service.
This site is not serviced by the NWS and there isn`t an
estimated return to service at present. Please contact us if you
observe winds significantly deviating from the recreational
forecast.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.
&&
$$
WHAT HAS CHANGED...Myskowski
DISCUSSION...Danzig/Myskowski
AVIATION...Haynes
EQUIPMENT...NWS BTV
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