701
FXUS61 KBTV 180720
AFDBTV
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
320 AM EDT Wed Mar 18 2026
.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
As of 307 AM EDT Wednesday...
Main change to the forecast early this morning is to account for
a band of snow that is stalling over parts of the Champlain
Valley, specifically over the Burlington airport and southern
Chittenden County. This snow is expected to sink southward over
the next few hours, with total very localized overnight
accumulations under this band of a dusting to half inch.
Otherwise, forecast is on track with scattered light snow
showers continuing northern NY.
&&
.KEY MESSAGES...
As of 307 AM EDT Wednesday...
1. A warming trend is expected through the end of the week with
some light rain and snow showers Thursday.
2. Unsettled weather continues over the weekend into next week,
but no strong systems are expected.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
As of 307 AM EDT Wednesday...
KEY MESSAGE 1: After a dry and chilly middle of the week,
precipitation chances return Thursday into Thursday night.
Southerly flow will increase ahead of a weak low pressure system
tracking well to our north, which will drag a weak front
through the northeastern US. Thursday`s temperatures will climb
into the upper 30s to low 40s within the warm air advection
regime, before cooling back into the 20s and low 30s by sunrise
Friday.
Given these temps, expect variable ptype that will be dependent
on timing and elevation. A rain/snow mix is forecast late
Thursday, transitioning to light snow by Friday morning as
temperatures drop. Given the continental track of the low,
moisture advection will be limited, keeping overall
accumulations very light. Snowfall accumulations will be
restricted to the northwestern facing slopes of the northern
Adirondacks and northern Greens, while the Champlain Valley and
much of eastern Vermont will struggle to get any accumulations.
Behind the system, the warming trend will continue through the end
of the week. By Friday, temperatures will be a few degrees above
seasonable normals.
KEY MESSAGE 2: A series of fast moving systems are favored
Saturday into Sunday and again later next week as mid/upper
level flow goes more near zonal in the base of a long wave
trough. WPC timing for systems is currently early Saturday into
Sunday and again by Wednesday. Southwest flow Saturday will
promote a change from snow showers to rain by late morning as
temperatures climb to around seasonal levels in the mid/upper
40s to near 50 degrees, but some brief mixed precipitation
cannot be ruled out as thermal structure of the lower atmosphere
modifies from cooler conditions Friday night due to warm air
advection. SW flow may result in warmer conditions than what WPC
is forecasting with error bounds potentially in the lower to
mid 50s for lower elevations Saturday afternoon. Winds may be
stronger than the current forecast early Saturday through late
Saturday morning as southerly flow channels along the Champlain
Valley with NAM projecting a 60kt low level jet traversing the
region; global guidance is much less on jet strength. Gusts in
excess of 35 mph may briefly occur Saturday morning should
mesoscale guidance be closer to the truth. Sunday, a sharper
cold front is expected to move through from a more north-south
trajectory with the parent low rapidly ejecting into
northeastern Canada. A cool-down to below seasonal averages
Sunday night into Monday is favored before seasonal conditions
return through mid week.
Otherwise, upper level jet energy is likely to linger keeping the
relative storm track over the Northeast and southern Canada. Another
system is projected to move through by mid next week, but timing
variations and character of this system are suspect at this time
scale.
&&
.AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Through 06Z Thursday...Aside from some snow showers off of Lake
Champlain and upslope showers at SLK this morning, conditions
are VFR with stubborn low level moisture maintaining a
OVC040-050 cloud deck. MVFR CIGs and VIS are occurring at BTV
from a lake streamer with some light accumulations to less than
1 inch favored. Best chances at BTV will be in the 06-07Z time
frame with 30% chance of ongoing shower activity through 09Z.
Brief IFR cannot be ruled out. Elsewhere, clouds are too thin to
produce showers. Low level moisture will dissipate 12-18Z with
upper level clouds moving in over that time frame. Northerly
flow will transition southwesterly to southerly through the day
remaining generally less than 10kts. MSS could channel in the St
Lawrence Valley and have some gusts to around 15kts.
Outlook...
Thursday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA.
Thursday Night: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. Chance
SHSN, Chance SHRA.
Friday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight chance SHRA,
Slight chance SHSN.
Friday Night: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Chance SHSN,
Chance SHRA.
Saturday: Mainly MVFR, with areas IFR possible. Chance SHRA,
Chance SHSN.
Saturday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance
SHRA, Chance SHSN.
Sunday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA, Chance
SHSN.
&&
.EQUIPMENT...
The Colchester Reef meteorological station is out of service.
This site is not serviced by the NWS and there isn`t an
estimated return to service at present. Please contact us if you
observe winds significantly deviating from the recreational
forecast.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.
&&
$$
WHAT HAS CHANGED...Duell
DISCUSSION...Duell/Boyd
AVIATION...Boyd
EQUIPMENT...NWS BTV
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