284
FXUS61 KBTV 060056
AFDBTV
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
856 PM EDT Fri Jun 5 2026
.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
As of 242 PM EDT Friday...
The potential for a few strong to locally severe storms has
increased on Saturday afternoon and evening.
&&
.KEY MESSAGES...
As of 242 PM EDT Friday...
1. A few strong to locally severe storms are possible on
Saturday afternoon and evening with isolated gusty winds, hail,
and frequent lighting as primary threat.
2. Deep layer ridging will build overhead on Tuesday which will
lead to well above normal temperatures through much of next week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
As of 242 PM EDT Friday...
KEY MESSAGE 1: The potential for a few strong to locally severe storms
has increased slightly acrs our cwa for Saturday aftn/evening, but
still some uncertainty on amount of instability. GOES-19 mid lvl
water vapor imagery show mid/upper lvl ridge acrs acrs central PA
into NY, while developing trof is located over the northern
Plains/Great Lakes. Water vapor shows a rather disorganized
mid/upper lvl trof evolution with several embedded s/w`s and
multiple pockets of enhanced mid lvl moisture, which is advecting
quickly in the westerly flow aloft. A series of warm frnts/moisture
boundaries wl be lifting from southwest to northeast acrs our cwa
late tonight into Saturday morning. Initially llvls wl be very dry,
as bl rh`s this aftn are only in the 25% to 35% range, so precip wl
have difficulties reach the sfc. However, as better dynamics and
moisture in all lvls arrives btwn 12z-16z Saturday, a period of
showers are likely. The best forcing from 700 to 500mb vorticity and
deepest moisture fields wl be along the International Border, so I
have the highest 60 to 80% in that area.
As initial moisture and lift exits our cwa by early aftn, a well
defined mid/upper lvl dry slot is progged to move into our
central/southern cwa, which is evident on water vapor over the
western Great Lakes. Soundings indicate a rather large 850 to 300mb
dry layer developing, which should help to erode some of the clouds
and produce a few breaks in the overcast. The amount of
clearing and sfc heating wl drive our instability parameters and
determine how robust convection can become associated with
secondary vort. Thinking a 1 to 3 hour window btwn 18-21z should
help sfc temps into the mid 70s to lower 80s with dwpts near
60F, resulting in sfc based CAPE values in the 800-1500 J/kg. As
mid/upper lvl trof with embedded potent secondary s/w energy
interacts with this instability another round of scattered
showers and thunderstorms are expected. Deep layer shear is
favorable with 35 to 50 knots, as ribbon of 700mb winds
increases associated with digging s/w energy. Did note a modest
EML in the 700-500mb layer with lapse rates 6.5 to 7.0 C/km
associated with dry slot advecting into our cwa. DCAPE values
are near 1000 J/kg, with mostly unidirectional wind flow, so
primary convective mode would be isolated pulse, evolving into
mini-bowing signatures. Wind and lightning would be primary
threat from any of the stronger convective elements. Crnt
thinking is mostly along and south of a SLK to BTV to MPV line,
with less instability acrs the NEK. Highs generally in the mid
70s to lower 80s, if more sun develops acrs the CPV with
westerly downslope flow and progged 925mb temps near 20C, local
highs in the mid 80s are possible.
Any convective threat dissipates by 03z with some lingering showers
likely acrs the trrn on Saturday night. Additional s/w energy and
850 to 500mb moisture rotates acrs our cwa late Sat night into
Sunday with more showers likely. The dynamics are impressive but
instability is lacking, so maybe an isolated embedded rumble of
thunder is possible on Sunday morning. The timing of strongest
dynamics and best instability is mostly south of our cwa on Sunday,
so mostly cool and showery weather is anticipated in the morning
with decreasing areal coverage of showers by mid to late afternoon.
Highs mostly in the upper 60s to mid 70s. Mid/upper lvl ridge builds
into our cwa on Monday with drier and warmer conditions expected and
comfortable humidity values. Areas of patchy fog possible,
especially dack valleys on Sunday night.
KEY MESSAGE 2: Deep layer ridging will become anchored across the North
Country and northern New York by late Tuesday afternoon. The ridge
will bring much drier air and and end to our rainfall chances as of
Tuesday morning. In addition, much warmer air is expected to advect
from the west with temperatures likely warming into the mid to upper
80s on Tuesday. A plume of modified gulf moisture will advect into
the Northeast late Wednesday and Thursday which allow dewpoints to
rise into the 60s. With temperatures warming to near 90 degrees on
Wednesday, Thursday, and Friday, we could see heat indices
approaching 95 degrees. There are some signs on the global guidance
that we may see a few showers Thursday and/or Friday afternoon but
subsidence may win out and keep us dry.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Through 00Z Sunday...VFR will persist overnight with clouds
thickening and lowering west to east. Light rain will spread
06-12Z across northern New York first, then Vermont. CIGs
expected to lower to around MVFR 12-18Z with winds increasing
out of the southwest; gusts 15 to around 20kts are possible
between showers. Some IFR CIGs possible after 18Z, but mainly in
areas of moderate to heavy showers. Periodic MVFR vis is
probable. Some TSRA is possible after 16Z as waves of showers
move through.
Outlook...
Saturday Night: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Chance SHRA,
Chance TSRA.
Sunday: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. Chance SHRA, Slight
chance TSRA.
Sunday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Monday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Monday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.
&&
$$
WHAT HAS CHANGED...Taber
DISCUSSION...Clay/Taber
AVIATION...Boyd
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