562
FXUS61 KBTV 110817
AFDBTV
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
417 AM EDT Wed Mar 11 2026
.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
As of 340 AM EDT Wednesday...
Have lowered ice amounts for advisory area as temperatures have
been slow to fall overnight.
&&
.KEY MESSAGES...
As of 340 AM EDT Wednesday...
1. The threat for ice jam flooding continues through tonight as
mild temperatures keep snowmelt runoff flowing into rivers.
Open water flooding will also be possible later today through
tomorrow.
2. Cold air will sink southward into our area tonight along the
international border in New York, and some freezing rain is
possible in that area. We also expect rain with possible thunder
today as a dynamic front crosses the area, followed by strong
winds on Thursday morning.
3. Seasonable temperatures return by the end of the work week
with a chance for accumulating snow Friday into Saturday.
4. An active end to the weekend will set up a more quiet start
to next week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
As of 340 AM EDT Wednesday...
KEY MESSAGE 1: No significant changes in thinking for the
overall flood threat for the next 24-36 hours. Temperatures will
fall to near or below freezing early this morning in the
northern Champlain and St Lawrence Valleys and northern
Adirondacks, which will help slow melt by this morning.
While the bulk of the area will then warm back up into the 50s
and 60s this afternoon, the St Lawrence Valley and eastern VT
will likely remain in the 30s due to east/northeast winds
keeping the cold air wedged in. This too will limit snowmelt
during the day. So flows on northern and eastern rivers may
recede somewhat, while central/southern waterways will continue
to have snowmelt across their basins. In addition, showers will
become fairly widespread today into tonight, and this too will
add to the runoff. So further rises and ice movement/jams are
possible. In fact, wouldn`t be surprised to see ice flush out
completely of some rivers and smaller streams. For some of those
waterways, such as Otter Creek, open water flooding will still
be possible even once the ice is gone. Should this occur, peak
flows should occur sometime Thursday, depending on the waterway.
Whether it`s ice jam flooding or open water flooding, we
strongly urge everyone to remain cautious along area waterways.
River ice can break up very suddenly, and water can rise rapidly
if jams do occur. River ice is very unstable and it is
absolutely not safe to approach ice jams or walk on the ice. And
even if rivers and streams remain within their banks, the water
will be running high and fast and it will be very cold, so
please stay well away from river banks.
KEY MESSAGE 2: Things are pretty much on track with the dynamic
system bringing a variety of weather to our area today. Some
precipitation is currently lifting across our area, and more
will follow as low pressure crosses our region this afternoon.
Some shallow cold air advection will allow some colder air to
seep down from Canada, and there continues to be a threat for
some freezing rain with ice accumulation especially in the
northern St Lawrence valley. Most areas should be plain rain by
about early afternoon, and will also have a chance for some
thunder as cold front approaches then crosses our area. Rainfall
totals will range from around a quarter of an inch in the
Connecticut river valley up to around an inch in the St Lawrence
valley. As the cold front pushes through the area tonight into
Thursday precipitation will change to snow before ending.
Snowfall accumulations will be light, an inch or less. Winds
will also pick up with the front as an 850 jet around 75 kts
passes overhead. A little uncertain how much wind will mix down
if there`s ongoing precipitation, but something to keep in mind.
KEY MESSAGE 3: Behind a strong cold front on Thursday,
temperatures will return to more seasonable levels for mid
March. Highs on Friday will be in the mid to upper 30s, with
perhaps near 40 in southern Vermont, as northwest flow will keep
things relatively cool throughout the day. Temperatures will
not be able to warm up much Friday as clouds will increase into
the evening as a clipper system moves across the Great Lakes
into our region Friday night. The center of the low is progged
to pass directly over the area, which does not bode confidence
in a lot of snow. However, a quick few inches will be possible,
mainly across the Adirondacks and Greens Friday night into
Saturday morning. NBM Probabilities of > 2" of snow are greater
than 90% across the Adirondacks, with a 50-60% chances for the
rest of northern New York, 30-50% east of the Greens in Vermont,
and a 20-30% chance in the northern Champlain Valley. The track
of this system is likely to lead to some shadowing effects in
the Champlain Valley from the Adirondacks, where little to no
snow in the Champlain Valley could be possible. Another wrinkle
will be that temperatures will only be marginal for snow, with
temperatures during precipitation in the at or just above
freezing. Some wet-bulbing may lead to mainly snow, but a mix
with rain cannot be ruled out, particularly in the Champlain
Valley and southern Vermont. Temperatures remain seasonable into
Saturday with highs just above and below the freezing mark,
with the northern New York progged to be cooler than locations
in Vermont.
KEY MESSAGE 4: A lee trough is expected to develop east of the
Rockies this weekend and track east across the Midwest. While
the exact track remains uncertain, ensembles depict the system
to lift into the region Sunday Night. The question will be how
close does the center of the low get to our region which will
impact the precipitation type and duration, as well as
temperatures. The GEFS depicts a solution closer to the St.
Lawrence Valley with a more robust mid latitude cyclone with
chances for more precipitation in the overrunning portion of the
system, as well as potentially increased winds. This solution
would favor cooler temperatures with even the potential for some
frozen precipitation. The Euro depicts a more north center over
northeastern Ontario, which would lead to less overall
precipitation, and favor more of a frontal passage precipitation
chance and warmer temperatures. Both solutions, however, depict
a strong thermal boundary associated with the system which
could lead to the potential for enhanced shower activity and
strong winds. NBM probabilities for wind gusts exceeding 30 MPH
are in the 50 to 75% range over the Champlain Valley and
Adirondacks early Monday morning.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Through 06Z Thursday...As a strong cold front pushes closer to
the region, aviation impacts from lowering ceilings and strong
LLWS will be the main concerns. Ceilings will lower to areawide
MVFR 2000-3000ft agl, with further lowering towards 1000-2000ft
agl MVFR by 18Z. MSS may see IFR cigs given the closer proximity
to the center of the low and northeast drainage flow. As strong
low level jet will move into the area after 10Z today and will
strengthen throughout the day. Upper air winds will sharply rise
to 55-65kts at 2000ft AGL. Showers associated with the
approaching front will be possible through much of the morning
with a slight chance for -FZRA close to sunrise at MSS, but for
the most part, any shower activity across the region will remain
rain. Heavy more steady rain will arrive beyond 18Z. Winds will
trend towards the south for most of the day, outside of the St.
Lawrence Valley where northeast drainage flow should dominate
the morning before also transitioning to the south by this
afternoon. Winds could gust up to 25kts at times for most sites
this afternoon outside of MSS.
Outlook...
Thursday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Windy with gusts
to 30 kt. Chance RA, Slight chance SHSN.
Thursday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Friday: VFR. Chance SN.
Friday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR and IFR possible.
Likely SN, Definite RA.
Saturday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Slight chance SN.
Saturday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Slight
chance SN.
Sunday: VFR. Likely RA, Chance SN.
&&
.CLIMATE...
As of 340 AM EDT Wednesday...
More records will be threatened today.
Record High Temperatures:
March 11:
KSLK: 60/1977
Record Precipitation:
March 11:
KPBG: 0.50/1964
&&
.EQUIPMENT...
The Colchester Reef meteorological station is out of service.
This site is not serviced by the NWS and there isn`t an
estimated return to service at present. Please contact us if you
observe winds significantly deviating from the recreational
forecast.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...Flood Watch through Thursday afternoon for VTZ001>011-016>021.
Winter Weather Advisory until 2 PM EDT this afternoon for
VTZ001.
NY...Flood Watch through Thursday afternoon for NYZ026>031-034-035-
087.
Winter Weather Advisory until 2 PM EDT this afternoon for
NYZ026>028-030-031-087.
&&
$$
WHAT HAS CHANGED...Neiles
DISCUSSION...Neiles/Danzig
AVIATION...Danzig
CLIMATE...NWS BTV
EQUIPMENT...NWS BTV
|
