821
FXUS61 KBTV 180633
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
133 AM EST Sun Jan 18 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
As of 130 PM EST Saturday...Light snow will come to an end
later this evening. Confidence is increasing for possibility of
snow squalls Monday afternoon into the evening, especially in
northern New York.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
As of 130 PM EST Saturday...

1. Light snow will be winding down this evening as drier air
moves into our area. A Winter Weather Advisory in effect for
Rutland and Windsor counties until 7 pm.

2. Winds will become strong out of the southwest on Monday
ahead of approaching cold front, with snow squalls possible
ahead of the cold front during the afternoon into the evening.

3. An unseasonably cold and unsettled pattern is expected for
next week with multiple chances for snow and temperatures
possibly sub-zero at times.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
As of 130 PM EST Saturday...

.KEY MESSAGE 1: Light snow continues this afternoon and will
wind down this evening. Low level flow will then become more
southwesterly and some snow showers off of Lake Ontario are
possible in the southern St Lawrence valley and into the
Adirondacks. A few inches of snow is possible in the most
persistent snow bands. Temperatures overnight will drop into the
teens to mid 20s. Quieter weather will then return through
early Monday.

.KEY MESSAGE 2: On Monday another low pressure system will pass
from the northern Great Lakes area, northeastward and well
north of our area. Tighten pressure gradient will lead to gusty
winds out of the south southwest on Monday. Models currently
support surface gusts 30-40 mph in the St Lawrence Valley and
around 30 mph for the northern Champlain Valley. Deep mixing is
present in model soundings with a 5kft+ depth of saturation.
Coupled with modest CAPE and a passing trough, there could be a
few squalls in northern New York as bursts of lake enhanced snow
showers move through. These gusts could support periods of
blowing snow resulting in an extended period of poor visibility
for portions of northern New York while allowing for lighter
snow showers to penetrate into northern Vermont. Just getting
into the window of the NAMnest which is supportive of this
possibility.

.KEY MESSAGE 3: Overall pattern Tues through Saturday is cold,
cyclonic flow with multiple cold fronts replenishing cold air
with light snow-snow showers on several days but no big storm
attm.

First one has pushed through the area by Tuesday with flow
backing a bit more westerly for Lake Effect Snow band across
Lake Ontario. Initially mainly south of forecast area but with
this initial shortwave exiting and more backing flow ahead of
next strong shortwave look for band to rotate north into our
area.

Surface low travels NW of area across Ontario-Quebec with some
warm air advection light snow Wed ngt with sharpening upper trof
and arctic front moving across for Thursday with snow showers
and possibly some snow squalls as well. This sharpening trof and
strong temperature discontinuity off the east coast will likely
develop a coastal storm but too far east for any impacts in our
area.

By Friday...flow becomes WSW again with surface high across the
area and lighter winds. Rinse and repeat Friday night-Saturday
with a weaker shortwave but surface wave on the backside of
ridge for another chance of light snow late Friday-Friday night
before another cold front on Saturday.

Attm...there are discrepancies on whether we get hit with more
arctic air or does the main core stay north into Ontario-Quebec
next weekend-early next week. The main story is this cold
pattern is likely to continue for some time as CPC has area
likely below normal through Days 8-14.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Through 06Z Monday...Primarily VFR condition prevail across the
region, with the exception on some intermittent MVFR and IFR at
KSLK due to snow showers across the area which are only
expected for the next few hours. VFR conditions are expected to
prevail for most of the forecast period, with some snow showers
possible at KRUT during the afternoon, but confidence is too low
to include in the forecast at this time. Ceilings are expected
to trend lower after 00Z or so, with more widespread MVFR
possible outside of the forecast period. South to southwest
winds will continue, with some gusts up to 30 knots possible at
KMSS. Winds will become light and variable and/or northwesterly
this afternoon, which will aide in the development of MVFR
ceilings.

Outlook...

Martin Luther King Jr Day: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible.
Chance SHSN.
Monday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHSN.
Tuesday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday: VFR. Chance SN.
Wednesday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR and IFR possible.
Likely SN, Chance SHSN.
Thursday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHSN.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
NOAA Weather Radio station WXM-44, transmitting from Mt.
Ascutney, Vermont, on frequency 162.475 MHz is non-operational
at this time. NWS technicians have diagnosed the problem, but
repairs will likely not be able to occur for quite some time due
to circumstances beyond our control. Therefore, the time of
return to service is currently unknown. The following NOAA
Weather Radio transmitters may be able to provide service during
this outage: WWG 50 from Burke Mtn, VT at 162.425 MHz and WNG
546 from Hanover, NH at 162.525 MHz.

The Colchester Reef meteorological station is out of service.
This site is not serviced by the NWS and there isn`t an
estimated return to service at present. Use extra caution when
navigating the broad waters of Lake Champlain. Please contact us
if you observe winds significantly deviating from the
recreational forecast.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Neiles/SLW
AVIATION...Kremer
EQUIPMENT...NWS BTV