991
FXUS61 KBTV 080740
AFDBTV
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
240 AM EST Thu Jan 8 2026
.SYNOPSIS...
Quieter and warmer weather is expected today and Friday ahead
of next approaching system. Mainly rain expected Friday and
Friday night along with strong southerly winds. Brief cooling on
Friday night into Saturday, then likely a wintry mix by
Saturday night before another brief warm up on Sunday. A cold
front on Sunday evening will transition the region back towards
snow and a cooler beginning to the new work week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 235 AM EST Thursday...Surface and upper level ridging
will build into our area today. Temperatures will warm into the
mid to upper 30s, with temperatures above freezing across most
of our region save for the highest elevations. Temperatures
tonight will dip into the lower to upper 20s early, which will
serve to slow melt that occurs during the daytime hours today.
Temperatures will be warming as southerly flow picks up and
clouds start to move into our area again. Some fog over snow is
possible this afternoon when the winds are light and
temperatures and possibly dewpoints both rise above freezing.
On Friday, next system will approach from our west, eventually
passing well to our north and west. Expect rain to spread across
our area from west to east on Friday, and will have a chance
for some freezing rain in areas that are slower to warm up.
Strong southerly flow should help to warm the area enough to
preclude any bigger issues. Around a tenth of an inch to a
quarter of an inch of rain is expected on Friday. Temperatures
areawide on Friday will peak in the 40s, some areas even get
close to 50. Snowmelt and runoff combined will lead to some
rises on area rivers and streams.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 235 AM EST Thursday...Colder air will be ushered into the
region overnight behind departing cold front off to our east.
Precipitation will become orographically enhanced before ending.
Temperatures Friday night will dip back into the upper 20s to
lower 30s. Next approaching system will not be far behind with
precipitation lifting into our area from the south later in the
day Saturday. Saturday will also be a warm day with maximum
temperatures reaching the lower 30s to lower 40s. Most of the
precipitation will hold off until Saturday night.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 240 AM EST Thursday...
* Key Point: Frozen precipitation areawide is likely Saturday
night, with substantial ice and snow possible.
The focus of the long term is over the weekend, as generally
unsettled but no significant systems or unusual signals for the
Monday-Wednesday timeframe. Compared to 24 hours ago, there has
been a clear shift towards a colder scenario for the weekend`s
storm that is on track to bring widespread precipitation by
Saturday evening, with the bulk of the event likely Saturday
night (12 hour PoP is only in the 10-50% range through 7 PM, in
the 80 to 90% range 7 PM Saturday to 7 AM Sunday, and falls to
the 30-70% range after 7 AM Sunday). The trajectory of a potent
low level jet has trended farther south and east, which greatly
reduces the degree of warming aloft compared to previous
thinking. So while we have freezing rain in the forecast, this
is not of particularly high confidence for a given location,
with perhaps greatest probabilities in the eastern Adirondacks
and eastern slopes of the central/southern Greens. Farther
north, especially towards the International Border, much of the
event could be in the form of snow where a deeper cold layer
will be present with lower wet bulb temperatures, but generally
a wintry mix remains on the table everywhere.
90th percentile snowfall amounts in the latest NBM are around 2
to 3 inches across the northernmost Champlain Valley and the
remainder of northern Vermont and tapering off to a coating to
an inch in south central Vermont and western Adirondacks. 24
hours ago these values were at most 1 inch in northeastern
Vermont, reflecting a marked change in the potential for
accumulating snowfall. Total QPF will generally be moderate,
probably in the range of 0.25" to 0.75", but ultimately
dependent on where the best frontogenesis and banded
precipitation winds up developing as the primary low pressure
system tracks to our west. Current consensus shows a little bit
greater precipitation amounts over southeastern portions of
Vermont. With the trend towards a colder event, there is also
less wind potential for Sunday as the system`s cold front won`t
have as much of a thermal or pressure gradient. Instead, on
Sunday the main thing to watch for would be scattered snow
showers, which could be heavy with some organization. We`ll
watch how the snow squall parameter looks, as low level
temperatures will be mild enough ahead of the showers to support
potential for additional travel impacts.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Through 06Z Friday...Varied low ceilings are present early this
morning. They are in the 500 to 800 foot range at MSS, EFK, and
SLK, but range from about 1500 to 4000 feet over the other
terminals. Brief IFR intervals at MPV and RUT are possible, but
otherwise over the next six hours or so flight conditions are
expected to be steady. There are very light, scattered snow
showers moving eastward through the airspace; these are most
likely to occur at sites already at IFR so little impact is
expected. That being said, BTV is currently seeing a visibility
reduction to 2 1/2SM. Low clouds will be difficult to scatter
out with light winds today, so similar conditions may persist
through much of the day. Generally some clearing is anticipated
in the 18Z to 21Z timeframe, leading to potential for fog to
quickly develop after sunset given moist air and continued
light/calm winds. Have greatest confidence in this occurring at
SLK, but have indicated BR at EFK and MPV as well.
Outlook...
Friday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Windy with gusts to
30 kt. Definite SHRA, Slight chance FZRA.
Friday Night: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. Chance SHRA.
Saturday: VFR. Chance RA, Chance SN.
Saturday Night: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Definite
SN, Chance RA.
Sunday: Mainly MVFR, with areas IFR possible. Chance RA, Chance
SN.
Sunday Night: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. Chance RA,
Slight chance SN.
Monday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. NO SIG WX.
&&
.EQUIPMENT...
NOAA Weather Radio station WXM-44, transmitting from Mt.
Ascutney, Vermont, on frequency 162.475 MHz is non-operational
at this time. NWS technicians have diagnosed the problem, but
repairs will likely not be able to occur for quite some time due
to circumstances beyond our control. Therefore, the time of
return to service is currently unknown. The following NOAA
Weather Radio transmitters may be able to provide service during
this outage: WWG 50 from Burke Mtn, VT at 162.425 MHz and WNG
546 from Hanover, NH at 162.525 MHz.
The Colchester Reef meteorological station is out of service.
This site is not serviced by the NWS and there isn`t an
estimated return to service at present. Use extra caution when
navigating the broad waters of Lake Champlain. Please contact us
if you observe winds significantly deviating from the
recreational forecast.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Neiles
NEAR TERM...Neiles
SHORT TERM...Neiles
LONG TERM...Kutikoff
AVIATION...Kutikoff
EQUIPMENT...Team BTV
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