624
FXUS61 KBTV 071444
AFDBTV
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
944 AM EST Sat Feb 7 2026
.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
As of 943 AM EST Saturday...
Winds and temperatures continue to fall rapidly behind the
arctic front. Increased winds and decreased temperatures and
dewpoints with this quick forecast update.
&&
.KEY MESSAGES...
As of 136 AM EST Saturday...
1. Widespread light snow showers with embedded moderate to
heavy bands will continue through this morning, creating hazardous
travel conditions. These will persist into the afternoon due to
areas of blowing snow.
2. Dangerous cold with wind chills of 20 to 40 below zero
expected today into Sunday.
3. No significant or impactful weather expected Weds into next
weekend with temperatures trending toward normal mid February
readings.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
As of 136 AM EST Saturday...
KEY MESSAGE 1: Low pressure is currently drifting across our
forecast area this morning, centered very near the international
border. An arctic front is being dragged along in its wake, and
as of this writing, has just crossed into the St Lawrence
Valley. We`ve been seeing a period of mainly light snow across
the area overnight, with accumulation generally ranging from
just a dusting here in the Champlain Valley to perhaps an inch
or two in portions of northern NY. As expected, a narrow band of
intense snow has developed along the front; note that
visibility in Ottawa went down to 1/2SM as the band went through
there, with snowfall rates estimated to be around 0.5 in/hr.
The band will keep fairly good forward progress through the
morning hours, so the heavier snow will be brief in any one
spot, generally 15-30 minutes. The band also looks to become
less defined as it pushes eastward, especially as it moves into
the Greens. Still, anticipate it`ll make for hazardous travel.
Roads are already snow covered in many areas, and visibility
will drop sharply as the band moves through. Winds will quickly
intensify with and/or just after the band moves through (more on
that in Key Message 2 discussion below), which will easily blow
the dry snow around, especially in open areas. The band should
arrive here in the Champlain Valley 5-7 am, then exit into NH
between 10 am and noon. Snow will gradually wind down through
the afternoon hours as much drier air rushes in behind the
front. Flow turns to the NW, so snow should trend toward upslope
snow showers in the northern Adirondacks and Greens through the
afternoon hours, eventually ending this evening. Snowfall
amounts are still anticipated to be a general 1 to 3 inches,
with 2 to 4 inches in the higher terrain and in some of the
favored upslope areas. Even the eastern side of the Champlain
Valley could end up on the higher side; flow will be highly
blocked with Froude numbers less than 0.20 much of today.
KEY MESSAGE 2: The arctic front is crossing into the St
Lawrence Valley early this morning, with much colder following
along in its wake. Per the NY Mesonet, note that Hammond`s
temperature dropped 8 degrees in 20-30 minutes with the frontal
passage, but more notably, winds have increased substantially;
they are currently NW 15-20 mph gusting to nearly 30 mph. This
trend will continue to spread eastward through the rest of this
morning, with wind chills quickly dropping to around -20F by
daybreak across northern NY. Meanwhile, areas from the Champlain
Valley eastward will also see sharply dropping temperatures and
wind chills plummeting below zero through the daylight hours
today. The brisk northwest winds will continue overnight
tonight, ushering in a dangerously cold airmass. Ambient
temperatures will drop into the teens below zero across the
Adirondacks and St Lawrence Valley, while areas from the
Champlain Valley eastward will mainly stay in the negative
single digits. Hence still anticipate the coldest wind chills of
20 to 40F below zero to stay across northern NY, with 15 to 25F
below zero further east. This cold will persist through the
morning hours on Sunday. It should be noted that guidance isn`t
going quite as drastically cold for Sunday`s highs, but still
anticipate highs will only top out in the positive single
digits. This with subsiding winds will help wind chills
"improve" to -5 to -15F in most areas during the afternoon hours
on Sunday. With all this in mind, the current cold headlines
still seem reasonable and therefore no changes have been made.
An Extreme Cold Warning covers the Adirondacks and St Lawrence
Valley from 7 am today to 1 pm Sunday, with the Champlain Valley
eastward under a Cold Weather Advisory from 6 pm this evening
to 1 pm Sunday. Regardless of the headlines though, it`s going
to be dangerously cold areawide today, tonight, and through much
of Sunday. Anyone with outdoor plans should consider altering
and/or delaying outdoor activities this weekend. If you must be
outdoors, please make sure to dress for very cold conditions.
Frostbite can start to affect exposed skin in as little as 10
minutes in these sorts of wind chill ranges, so hats,
gloves/mittens, and warm layers for your core will be crucial.
High pressure will build into the region later Sunday into
Sunday night before shifting east on Monday. Winds will continue
to slacken overnight, making for better radiational cooling
conditions. However, some model guidance continues to show there
could be some lingering low cloud cover, especially over the
higher terrain. This could potentially limit cooling potential.
Have continued to blend in some colder guidance for Sunday
night, with lows generally -5 to - 15F. With mainly light winds,
wind chill values will be close to Advisory criteria (-20F), so
additional cold headlines might be needed.
KEY MESSAGE 3: Still limited run to run consistency with a
large spread in guidance with regards to pattern evolution and
track of synoptic scale systems. The general idea shows warm air
advection lift/moisture impacting our cwa mid week with a
period of light snow shower activity. Given primary sfc low pres
tracking to our northwest, expect some trrn shadowing here in
the CPV with temps climbing close to freezing. GFS conts to show
lingering upslope snow showers thru most of the week, while
ECMWF is building 1030mb high pres into our fa with cool nights
and seasonable daytime highs. This would suppress the storm
track and best moisture to our south thru most of the upcoming
week. Until better agreement is reached in our guidance, have
continued with highest pops acrs northern NY into the mountains
of central/northern VT, with lower pops in the CT River Valley
and parts of the CPV. Highs generally warm into the mid 20s to
mid 30s with lows in the teens. Much cooler lows would be
possible if high pres with clear skies and light winds were to
develop per ECMWF solution, especially toward late week. Best
potential for light snow accumulation wl be acrs the higher trrn
of the dacks and central/northern Greens.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Through 12Z Sunday...Snow showers continue across our taf sites
this morning with mostly IFR/LIFR conditions with developing
northwest winds 10 to 20 knots. The greatest potential for
periods of LIFR vis and MVFR/IFR cigs will be on the east side
of the Champlain Valley (BTV/RUT) thru 16z associated with
blocked flow. Mostly IFR vis with MVFR cigs prevail at SLK/EFK
and MPV with improving conditions mostly likely to MVFR at MSS
by 15z. As flow continues from the northwest, expect PBG to
improve toward MVFR/VFR conditions btwn 15z-18z today. Gusty
northwest winds will create areas of blowing and drifting snow,
especially at MPV/BTV/MSS and RUT thru early this aftn. Winds
slowly decrease between 4 and 8 knots by evening. As drier air
develops conditions should improve to a combination of VFR
valleys and MVFR mountain sites by 03z this evening with trends
toward VFR by 06z.
Outlook...
Sunday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Sunday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Monday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Monday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight chance
SHSN.
Tuesday Night: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Chance SHSN.
Wednesday: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Chance SHSN.
&&
.EQUIPMENT...
NOAA Weather Radio station WXM-44, transmitting from Mt.
Ascutney, Vermont, on frequency 162.475 MHz is non- operational
at this time. NWS technicians have diagnosed the problem, but
repairs will likely not be able to occur for quite some time due
to circumstances beyond our control. Therefore, the time of
return to service is currently unknown. The following NOAA
Weather Radio transmitters may be able to provide service during
this outage: WWG 50 from Burke Mtn, VT at 162.425 MHz and WNG
546 from Hanover, NH at 162.525 MHz.
The Colchester Reef meteorological station is out of service.
This site is not serviced by the NWS and there isn`t an
estimated return to service at present. Please contact us if
you observe winds significantly deviating from the recreational
forecast.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...Cold Weather Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 1 PM EST
Sunday for VTZ001>011-016>021.
NY...Extreme Cold Warning until 1 PM EST Sunday for NYZ026-027-
029>031-034-087.
Cold Weather Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 1 PM EST
Sunday for NYZ028-035.
&&
$$
WHAT HAS CHANGED...Danzig
DISCUSSION...Kremer/Clay
AVIATION...Danzig
EQUIPMENT...NWS BTV
|
