457
FXUS61 KBTV 281830
AFDBTV
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
130 PM EST Sat Feb 28 2026
.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
As of 128 PM EST Saturday...
Continued confidence in unseasonably cold temperatures Sunday Night,
and chances for light snowfall Tuesday into Tuesday Night.
&&
.KEY MESSAGES...
As of 128 PM EST Saturday...
1. March will start off cold, with well below normal
temperatures on Sunday and Monday. Light and fluffy snow still on
track for Sunday with limited impacts.
2. A return to more seasonable conditions and potential snow
chances for early next week.
3. Warming likely with an active weather pattern forecast.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
As of 128 PM EST Saturday...
KEY MESSAGE 1: As a cold front continues to push through the region
this afternoon, much colder, drier air will filter in behind for the
weekend. Temperatures will sharply fall tonight from highs in the
upper 30s to low 40s down to the single digits and low teens; a 30-
40 degree drop for some locations. Winds will shift to the northwest
drawing further cold air with 925mb temperatures falling to the
climatological 10-20th percentiles across the wider valleys by
tomorrow morning. A weak thermal gradient will linger across the
southern portions of the region which will support some light
scattered snow showers. There is not a well defined surface feature
to provide a good forcing mechanism, however, a modest low level jet
of 30-40kts should promote some marginal lift. The best dynamical
forcing looks to be focused in southern Vermont across Rutland and
Windsor Counties where a dusting to locally an inch of light and
fluffy snow is expected with snow ratios up to 20:1. Thermal
profiles further north also depict decent dry low to mid levels
which will be hard to saturate across central and northern Vermont.
Nonetheless, a few flurries could be possible across central Vermont
and the Upper Valley of the Connecticut, but little to no
accumulations are anticipated.
Behind these snow showers, a modified Arctic High will nudge east
leading to clearing skies Sunday night into Monday. Clear skies, and
weakening winds to near calm will help develop anomalously bitter
cold. Sunday night looks like a good candidate for strong radiative
cooling into the 25th-10th percentile for overnight lows. Locations
across the Adirondacks and St. Lawrence Valley should be able to
reach well below zero with some of the coldest hollows of the
Adirondacks falling towards -15F. Some lingering clouds across
Vermont and the Northeast Kingdom may inhibit efficient radiative
cooling at the beginning of the overnight, but these areas should
also see some clearing close to sunrise, where the climatologically
favored areas could also fall towards -10F, especially in the
Lamoille Valley and Northeast Kingdom. Apparent Temperatures will
near Cold Weather Advisory criteria (-20F) across the Adirondacks,
however, air temperatures should hold below -20F with less time to
cool with an earlier sunrise. Additionally any increased winds which
would normally push us over the -20F threshold, would lead to more
mixing limiting radiative cooling. These competing factors should be
able hold the area above any cold headlines.
KEY MESSAGE 2: Following the anomalously cold air over the weekend, the
beginning of next week will see a recovery back to normal and
perhaps above normal heading towards mid week. The Arctic high will
be overhead during the day Monday, but ample sunshine and a subtle
waa should help temperatures recover back to the teens to low 20s,
or about 15 to 20 degrees below normal. Overnight lows will remain
cold Monday night as the high drifts east, but slight southerly flow
should limit the radiative cooling effects for most locations. Some
ridge riding clouds could also reduce any cooling effect across the
St. Lawrence and near the International Border. Lows will dip into
the single digits to teens, with some lingering near zero values in
the Northeast Kingdom as the high shifts east. Strong waa will take
place Tuesday as southerly flow returns, with temperatures
increasing to the mid 30s areawide.
Southern stream energy will riding along the western edge of the
departing high with chances for precipitation chances late Tuesday.
There still remains some uncertainty for the track of a low pressure
system on Tuesday which will impact temperature profiles, and cloud
cover which will play a role for viewing the "Blood Moon." Best
thinking for the Blood Moon viewing is that any cloud cover Tuesday
morning would likely be thin which should support decent viewing
conditions. Model guidance remains confident in shower activity
Tuesday falling as predominately snow, however, how north the system
moves remains in question. Timing also remains a little uncertain,
but there is better confidence that precipitation potentially could
start during the afternoon hours on Tuesday. The GFS remains the
most aggressive and has been relatively stable with a widespread few
inches across the region. However, the Euro and AI ensembilistic
guidance has shifted south. This shift has been consistent, outside
of the 12Z guidance yesterday and is consistent with a more detached
high which would limit the southerly flow needed to nudge the system
north. There is high confidence in ptype as it stands, but amounts
still remain in question. Typically with these zonal flow, and
transient systems, high snow amounts are rare, and with PWATs around
0.5," widespread high snowfall is not expected. The character of any
snow would be on the wet side should any snow fall, with marginal
temperatures in the low to mid 30s.
KEY MESSAGE 3: The confluence of upper level systems and a Bermuda High
set up at the surface appears likely to persist into next week. The
trouble with these types of patterns is that they often involve
small, weak features that are moving at a fast clip. This naturally
lends itself to low predictability. However, reviewing any ensemble
suite will indicate that PWATs estimating the amount of moisture in
the atmosphere will rise above 200% in the midst of the steady
stream of systems, and they favor above normal precipitation. Any
deviations in the plume of moisture or the exact placement of this
tightening thermal gradient will determine how much rain we could
observe going forward. It looks like the most likely time frame for
the next push of moisture will be Thursday evening into Friday, but
model scenarios are not in phase with a wide timing differences.
Expected temperatures will climb into the 40s, perhaps cresting over
50 F towards the next weekend.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Through 18Z Sunday...A series of troughs are shifting east across the
region today. The precipitation piece is about to exit Vermont.
Ceilings range between 3000-7000 ft agl. Lagging LLWS will be
possible at KRUT, KMPV, and KEFK until this completely exits. The
wind shift piece will arrive about 20z-23z, with a steady transition
from south or south- southwest to northwest. Sustained winds in broad
valleys (like KMSS and KBTV) have been 15 to 20 with gusts 25 to 32
knots, while remaining TAF sites have been 5 to 12 knots sustained
with occasional gusts near 20 knots. As the wind shift takes place,
winds will trend toward 5 to 10 knots, and likely stay there through
the period. Skies will briefly clear, but once flow is northwesterly
(about 01z-03z), ceilings will return towards 3000-5000 ft agl.
Light snow move in from the southwest, but the northward extent is
uncertain. At this time, only KSLK and KRUT have prevailing snow,
with PROB30s at KBTV and KMPV about 06z-14z. This activity will
shift east thereafter.
Outlook...
Sunday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Monday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Monday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SN.
Tuesday Night: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Likely SN.
Wednesday: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday Night: VFR. Slight chance SN.
Thursday: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. Chance RA, Chance SN.
&&
.EQUIPMENT...
NOAA Weather Radio station WXM-44, transmitting from Mt.
Ascutney, Vermont, on frequency 162.475 MHz is non- operational
at this time. NWS technicians have diagnosed the problem, but
repairs will likely not be able to occur for quite some time due
to circumstances beyond our control. Therefore, the time of
return to service is currently unknown. The following NOAA
Weather Radio transmitters may be able to provide service during
this outage: WWG 50 from Burke Mtn, VT at 162.425 MHz and WNG
546 from Hanover, NH at 162.525 MHz.
The Colchester Reef meteorological station is out of service.
This site is not serviced by the NWS and there isn`t an
estimated return to service at present. Please contact us if you
observe winds significantly deviating from the recreational
forecast.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.
&&
$$
WHAT HAS CHANGED...Danzig
DISCUSSION...Haynes/Danzig
AVIATION...Haynes
EQUIPMENT...NWS BTV
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