468
FXUS61 KBTV 250719
AFDBTV
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
219 AM EST Wed Feb 25 2026
.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
As of 205 AM EST Wednesday...
No significant changes.
&&
.KEY MESSAGES...
As of 205 AM EST Wednesday...
1. Snow will cause hazardous travel today, first with
widespread light snow in the morning, then scattered snow showers
and possible embedded snow squalls during the afternoon and evening.
2. A brief warmup is expected for Saturday, with sharply colder
temperatures returning Saturday night into early next week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
As of 205 AM EST Wednesday...
KEY MESSAGE 1:
Active weather remains on tap today with a typical clipper system
tracking to our north. A large area of snow over central New
York will race northeastward this morning, beginning about 4 AM
in western portions of northern New York and reaching
northeastern Vermont by 8 AM, with only about 2 hours of steady
snowfall for most locations. This snow will be quite light both
in amounts and density; forecast soundings show precipitation
developing with deepening cloud layers with a temperature
favorable for dendrites coincident with strong vertical motion.
Hence, for a upwards of an hour would expect moderate to heavy
snowfall rates with visibilities down to a half mile. While
there will be variability dependent on some terrain effects
given a potent ~40 knot south-southwest low level jet, snow to
liquid ratios will be near 20:1; with just 0.05 to 0.1" of
liquid you get a fairly quick 1 to 2" of snow. The intensity of
the snow, as noted with low visibilities and 0.5-1" per hour
snowfall rates, will cause difficult travel
After the warm front and associated isentropic lift exits, we`ll
have some clearing as wedge of dry air ahead of the clipper`s cold
front develops. If this was summertime we`d be looking at severe
thunderstorm potential this afternoon in the warm sector. As is,
southerly flow out ahead of the front does appear to advect in
warmer and more moist air. In combination with height falls, lapse
rates will steepen and we will see snow showers develop rather
quickly. With Lake Ontario mostly open, a lake enhancement to
surface moisture and instability seems to be leading to best snow
squall ingredients over northern New York where scattered to
numerous snow showers will likely fall. Southwest winds look
moderately strong; while the boundary layer does not look
particularly deep as it can get in more robust snow squall
scenarios, forecast soundings in places like Massena and Saranac
Lake suggest potential to mix down 35 - 40 MPH gusts. Confidence on
these gusts concurrent with snow showers is limited given expected
shallow cloud tops and more moist rather than dry low level air.
Farther east, while instability is more marginal for snow squalls,
it appears that taller, very skinny CAPE will develop such that snow
showers could be heavier, especially if they organize into a line
such that some Convective Allowing Models are indicating. This
snow will also be rather fluffy, with stronger upward motion and
somewhat lower altitude snow growth zone compensating for
warmer near surface temperatures.
In particular, while frontogenesis also does not appear to be
strong, it appears to sharpen across central/southern Vermont in
a pre-frontal trough ahead of the cold front during the
evening, such that an area of heavy snow develops. This feature
is noted in the HRRR/RAP/NAM3, with some important differences
in timing, location and intensity. Generally looks like the risk
of this heavy snow shower activity increases after 6 PM and
greatest likelihood of occurrence is in southern portions of
Vermont, although other clusters of heavy snow showers could be
ongoing farther north. While this is not an Arctic cold front
which tends to overachieve on snow squall activity, any of these
snow showers could produce locally difficult travel for the
evening commute. Precipitation could linger through at least the
first part of the night as the cold front will probably sweep
eastward through the region towards midnight. Even behind the
front, lingering moisture and upslope southwesterly flow will
keep some terrain-driven light snow going and future forecasts
may bump up snowfall locally through daybreak Thursday.
Following the cold front, while a broad trough will sit over
the region with seasonably cold air in place, a low pressure
system will track too far south Thursday afternoon and evening
for us to have any significant weather. Then high pressure
will build in for Friday and slide to our east Friday night,
resulting in a milder night following a cold Thursday night.
KEY MESSAGE 2: Strong southerly flow across the region will usher in
warmer air, bringing warmer temperatures for Saturday. As of now,
temperatures are expected to climb into the 40s areawide, with some
locations in southern Vermont nearing 50. This warm up will be short-
lived, as a cold front looks to push across the region Saturday
night into Sunday, bringing some sharply colder temperatures and
scattered showers. Winter-like weather is expected for early next
week, with highs well below freezing and overnight lows in the
single digits above and below zero, although more moderate
temperatures look to arrive towards mid-week.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Through 06Z Thursday...VFR conditions currently prevail at all
terminals, and will continue for a few more hours before snow moves
through the region this morning. Snow will move across the region
from west to east early this morning, reaching northern New York
terminals around 09Z or so, bringing a period of IFR visibility to
most if not all terminals this morning. After this first round of
snow showers, some additional scattered snow showers, with some
possible embedded snow squalls, will develop in the afternoon, but
confidence in exact impacts to terminals is low. Winds are currently
light and terrain driven, but will become more southerly throughout
the forecast period. The strongest winds are expected at KBTV and
KPBG where gusts of 15 to 25 knots are possible. A period of LLWS is
expected to develop this morning as snowfall move into the region.
Outlook...
Thursday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Thursday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Friday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Friday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. NO SIG WX.
Saturday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. NO SIG WX.
Saturday Night: VFR. Slight chance SN.
Sunday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Slight chance SN.
&&
.EQUIPMENT...
The KMPV ASOS has suffered a communications failure. The issue
has been diagnosed, but there is currently no estimated time of
return to service. Terminal Aerodrome Forecasts will continue,
but amendments to those forecasts will be suspended.
NOAA Weather Radio station WXM-44, transmitting from Mt.
Ascutney, Vermont, on frequency 162.475 MHz is non- operational
at this time. NWS technicians have diagnosed the problem, but
repairs will likely not be able to occur for quite some time due
to circumstances beyond our control. Therefore, the time of
return to service is currently unknown. The following NOAA
Weather Radio transmitters may be able to provide service during
this outage: WWG 50 from Burke Mtn, VT at 162.425 MHz and WNG
546 from Hanover, NH at 162.525 MHz.
The Colchester Reef meteorological station is out of service.
This site is not serviced by the NWS and there isn`t an
estimated return to service at present. Please contact us if you
observe winds significantly deviating from the recreational
forecast.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.
&&
$$
WHAT HAS CHANGED...Kutikoff
DISCUSSION...Kutikoff/Kremer
AVIATION...Kremer
EQUIPMENT...NWS BTV
|
