785
FXUS61 KBTV 130555
AFDBTV
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
155 AM EDT Mon Apr 13 2026
.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
As of 312 PM EDT Sunday...
No significant changes made with this forecast package.
&&
.KEY MESSAGES...
As of 312 PM EDT Sunday...
1. Developing gusty winds with showers overnight into Monday.
2. Additional chances for showers and thunderstorms are
expected on Tuesday and Wednesday with much above normal
temperatures.
3. Warm and unsettled weather to continue late next week into
the weekend.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
As of 312 PM EDT Sunday...
KEY MESSAGE 1: Mid/upper lvl analysis shows mid/upper lvl ridge acrs
the SE CONUS, with deep sub-tropical moisture advection on backside
over the central/southern Plains. GOES-19 mid lvl water imagery
shows deeper moisture advecting into northern NY along a
strengthening warm frontal boundary. This boundary is expected to
become stationary near the International Border as fast westerly
flow aloft prevails on northern periphery of ridge. Sfc dwpts in the
upper teens to lower 20s has resulted in rh values in the mid 20s to
mid 30s this aftn, while initial surge of rain is dissipating or
falling as virga. Eventually saturation of all layers of the
atmosphere occurs this evening with a period of warm frontal rain
showers expected. Maybe a few high elevation wet snow flakes as
Whiteface is only 28F attm. Rainfall amounts generally a 0.10 to
0.25" with some locally higher amounts mtns and lighter amounts
downslope shadowing areas.
A strengthening 850mb jet of 50 to 65 knots develops acrs northern
NY toward 06z, while strongest core passes just northwest of the
SLV. The strongest 925mb winds of 45 to 50 knots are expected over
the SLV into northern Dacks, while lighter winds are progged over
eastern and southern VT tonight into Monday. As always, the
challenge wl be amount of mixing given rain and cooler bl temps, but
as inversion strengthens and helps to enhance channeled flow, expect
localized gusts 35 to 45 mph possible northern CPV and northern
slopes of the Dacks. Strongest winds will be along Route 11 corridor
from Malone to Altona btwn midnight and noon. Much lighter winds are
anticipated in the deeper/protected valleys of central/eastern VT.
Temps wl cool initially this evening, but should warm after
midnight, especially downslope areas of the northern Dacks.
Additional showers are likely on Monday afternoon and evening as s/w
energy and moisture crosses our cwa. Localized heavy downpours
possible as pw values surge above 1.25".
KEY MESSAGE 2: Forecast challenge on Tues and Weds is position of
boundary and impacts on temps/instability acrs our cwa. Latest
guidance shows very little agreement or confidence in position of
sharp north to south boundary acrs our region, which wl be focus for
additional showers and thunderstorms. Given fast westerly flow aloft
some convective debris clouds and a messy warm sector is likely,
with best instability located over central NY. However, if more sfc
heating/instability develops than progged, especially on Tues aftn,
wind profiles are favorable for rotating storms with some
organization possible. There is a non zero or conditional threat
for strong to locally severe storms. The 0 to 6 km deep layer shear
is 40 to 60 knots, while 0-1KM SRH is 150-300 m^2/S^2, while 0-3KM
SRH is >400, but question is on the amount of instability,
especially with lingering boundary and potential for clouds. In
addition, timing of embedded s/w energy in the fast flow aloft looks
a little unfavorable with first wave moving thru around 12z Tues,
with secondary energy after 00z Weds. Each wave of energy is
expected to have at least a round of showers with embedded rumbles
of thunder. The strong to severe potential wl be driven on how much
sfc heating/instability can develop. On Weds, a large difference is
noted in progged position of boundary, with NAM having us well into
the warm sector with 925mb temps of 21C, while GFS is 12C with north
winds. Thinking convective outflow on Tues, could act to push
boundary south on Weds, resulting a cooler/more stable solution.
However, confidence is low in any particular solution attm. It does
seem localized heavy rainfall is possible within any convection,
especially with pw values approaching 1.50" or 2 to 3 STD above
normal on Tues into Weds. Always have to watch for training
convection and the potential for flash flooding with a stationary
boundary nearby.
KEY MESSAGE 3: An active weather pattern will continue through the end
of this upcoming week into next weekend. Upper level high pressure
will remain situated across the southeastern US which will leave us
on the periphery of the mid-level ridging. Multiple disturbances are
expected to push through the region Thursday and Friday which will
help push a series of frontal passages through the North Country.
This will lead to period of rain showers, with possibly a few
rumbles of thunder, into to the weekend. Temperatures will remain a
good bit above seasonal normals with highs climbing into the 70s
both Thursday and Friday. The upper level ridge will begin to build
northward early in the weekend and allow for even warmer
temperatures and moisture to advect northward. A cold front will
then pass through the region later in the weekend and a bring a
return to a cooler and more seasonal air mass. Deterministic
guidance varies on the timing of the actual frontal passage as the
building mid-level heights across the eastern US may slow the front
down. Rainfall amounts late this week and into the weekend appear to
range between 0.5 to 0.75 inches so even with an extended period of
wet weather, no significant weather is expected at this time.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Through 06Z Tuesday...VFR conditions prevail across terminals
as rain showers continue to exit the region, although a few
occasional periods of MVFR have been observed within showers due
to brief periods of reduced visibilities. Showers will continue
to exit the region over the next few hours, with a period of
drier conditions towards morning before another batch of showers
arrive tomorrow afternoon. While VFR conditions are expected to
prevail through the first half of the forecast period, ceilings
are expected to lower towards 21Z or so, bringing more
widespread MVFR conditions. Southerly winds will continue to
increase towards the morning, with gusts in excess of 25 knots
possible at all terminals. Winds will remain gusty through the
majority of the forecast period, but the strongest winds are
generally expected between 10Z and 18Z. Widespread LLWS is
expected at all terminals, especially this morning.
Outlook...
Tuesday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Windy with gusts
to 30 kt. Likely SHRA, Chance TSRA.
Tuesday Night: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. Chance SHRA, Chance
TSRA.
Wednesday: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Likely SHRA,
Slight chance TSRA.
Wednesday Night: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. Likely
SHRA.
Thursday: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Likely SHRA,
Slight chance TSRA.
Thursday Night: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. Chance SHRA.
Friday: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Slight chance SHRA.
&&
.EQUIPMENT...
The Colchester Reef meteorological station is out of service.
This site is not serviced by the NWS. An estimated return to
service is May 1st. Please contact us if you observe winds
significantly deviating from the recreational forecast.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...Wind Advisory from 6 AM this morning to 2 PM EDT this
afternoon for NYZ026-027-030-031-034.
&&
$$
WHAT HAS CHANGED...Taber
DISCUSSION...Clay/Taber
AVIATION...Kremer
EQUIPMENT...NWS BTV
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