335
FXUS61 KBTV 212352
AFDBTV
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
652 PM EST Sat Feb 21 2026
.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
As of 203 PM EST Saturday...
Snowfall amounts continue to increase for southern and central
Vermont for Sunday night into Monday.
&&
.KEY MESSAGES...
As of 203 PM EST Saturday...
1. Snow showers continue to taper off this afternoon but linger
over northern New York.
2. Continued northwestward trend in the nor`easter sunday night
into Monday.
3. Cold midweek, then another round of widespread precipitation
is possible over the latter half of the week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
As of 203 PM EST Saturday...
KEY MESSAGE 1: A backdoor cold front is slowly progressing down
from the northeast. There is much drier air behind it with the
snow stopping and the sun coming out. It should push through
northern Vermont by this evening and the rest of Vermont and
parts of Clinton County by tomorrow morning. While the sunshine
will likely be reserved to the Northeast Kingdom and adjacent
areas, the snow showers should end in the rest of the places
after its passage. A few snow showers will linger across parts
of northern New York through much of tomorrow.
KEY MESSAGE 2: A powerful nor`easter develops off the Mid-
Atlantic Coast on Sunday and its center tracks southeast of Cape
Cod and the islands Sunday night into Monday. It is
increasingly looking like an ideal storm track for southern New
England, while Vermont and northern New York will be on the
northern fringe. As typical for these events, there looks to be
sharp gradient on the northern edge. Probabilities of 4 or more
inches for Rutland and Windsor counties remain around 25-40
percent, but there is some old guidance going into those so they
will likely rise a bit due to the westward shift. There is also
the potential for a mesoband to reach southern Vermont and
locally increase snowfall amounts there. Northern areas are only
likely to see an inch or two at most, barring an unexpected
major change in the storm track. The surface pressure of the low
is expected to drop below 980 mb and potentially below 970 mb
as it passes by, creating a significant pressure gradient. A
strong easterly low level jet looks to develop across southern
Vermont, with 40-60 KTs looking increasing likely at 4,000 feet.
This is thankfully higher and weaker than in many high wind
events, but gusts in the 30-40 mph range look increasingly
likely in southern Vermont. Downsloping will likely reduce snow
amounts in the areas around Rutland and south along the Route 7
corridor. Channeled northerly flow also looks likely in the
Champlain Valley later Monday, with gusts in the 25 to 35 mph
range possible. Overall, there has been an impressive westward
shift in guidance relatively close to the event. Back on
Thursday, it was just the GFS and a couple GEFS/CAN ensembles
bringing any notable snow to southern New England, and now they
are expecting blizzard conditions and several inches are
increasingly likely across southern Vermont.
KEY MESSAGE 3: Cold air advection behind a departing coastal
storm will push us about 10-15 degrees below normal in the mid
teens and 20s Tuesday afternoon. Portions of northern New York
could see wind chills Tuesday morning and early afternoon
approaching 15 below. Tuesday night into Wednesday morning will
feature min temperatures in the -5 to 5 F range. Our next
chance for precipitation will be on Wednesday when a shortwave
slides through the region and a surface low pressure moving
across the Great Lakes and New York/Vermont international
border. With low pressure to our west, we anticipate some warm
air advection across northern New York and Vermont on Wednesday.
Wednesday night, the surface low looks to ride along the
international border before speeding north and east early
Thursday morning. The Canadian model and ECMWF both seem to try
and keep this system separated into two upper shortwaves. A
greater gap between the two means snow for the onset Wednesday
into Wednesday night, but southwest return flow is allowed to
take place and warm us above freezing with a wintry mix or rain,
particularly Wednesday night into Thursday night and mainly in
the valleys. For the ECMWF and Canadian, having not combined the
waves for the Wednesday system, that secondary wave rides
through quickly behind on Thursday, though placement and speed
of cold frontal boundaries still create discrepancies between
the two models. The GFS, however, combines the two waves into
one and includes some upslope precipitation behind it on
Thursday. Where the systems are more closely entwined like in
the GFS solution, there`s less warm advection that takes place
and more snow. The GFS brings another wave through Thursday
night and Friday. This differs from the other two models, which
keep us mostly dry by Friday. With both scenarios, precipitation
is likely, but the nature of how and when this plays out
between Wednesday afternoon and Friday is uncertain.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Through 00Z Monday...Primarily a mix of MVFR/VFR this evening,
with KSLK the lone exception due to IFR ceilings. Clear skies
dominate northeastern VT, with a blanket of MVFR clouds covering
much of the region and a majority of our TAF sites. This will be
the trend this evening and into the overnight.
KMSS/KSLK/KRUT/KBTV have the best chances of remaining MVFR with
ceilings 1200-2800 ft. KPBG and KMPV will be on the edge of the
cloud deck and could have periods of VFR with SCT clouds.
Guidance continues to indicate some mist/fog at KEFK late
tonight into early Sunday morning as moisture gets trapped under
a strong inversion. Have stuck with 5SM and SCT003 05z-13z due
to uncertainty, but IFR is a possibility. KRUT will have
periods of IFR through 04z with light snow and occasional
lowering of ceilings below 1000 ft. Otherwise, the only other
terminal with visibility restrictions will be KMSS, where light
snow is expected 10z-15z Sun. Visibility mainly 3-5SM in snow.
Some improvement is expected during the day Sunday as ceilings
lift, but overall still anticipate VFR/MVFR. Winds light and
variable overnight, trending toward the S/SE at KBTV/KRUT and
E/NE at KMSS after sunrise Sunday.
Outlook...
Sunday Night: VFR. Slight chance SN.
Monday: VFR. Chance SN.
Monday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Slight chance
SN.
Tuesday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday: Mainly MVFR, with local VFR possible. Chance SN.
Wednesday Night: MVFR. Chance SN.
Thursday: Mainly MVFR, with areas IFR possible. Chance SN, Chance
RA.
&&
.EQUIPMENT...
The KMPV ASOS has suffered a communications failure. The issue
has been diagnosed, but there is currently no estimated time of
return to service. Terminal Aerodrome Forecasts will continue,
but amendments to those forecasts will be suspended.
NOAA Weather Radio station WXM-44, transmitting from Mt.
Ascutney, Vermont, on frequency 162.475 MHz is non- operational
at this time. NWS technicians have diagnosed the problem, but
repairs will likely not be able to occur for quite some time due
to circumstances beyond our control. Therefore, the time of
return to service is currently unknown. The following NOAA
Weather Radio transmitters may be able to provide service during
this outage: WWG 50 from Burke Mtn, VT at 162.425 MHz and WNG
546 from Hanover, NH at 162.525 MHz.
The Colchester Reef meteorological station is out of service.
This site is not serviced by the NWS and there isn`t an
estimated return to service at present. Please contact us if you
observe winds significantly deviating from the recreational
forecast.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.
&&
$$
WHAT HAS CHANGED...Myskowski
DISCUSSION...Storm/Myskowski
AVIATION...Hastings
EQUIPMENT...NWS BTV
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