729
FXUS61 KBTV 091722
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
122 PM EDT Thu Jul 9 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
As of 249 AM EDT Thursday...

Slightly better model agreement has lent some confidence to
increase rainfall amounts near the International Border, and
along the central Greens in Vermont. Localized heavy rain will
be possible today due to the presence of semi-training
thunderstorms.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
As of 249 AM EDT Thursday...

1. Scattered showers with isolated to scattered embedded
thunderstorms expected today into tonight. Localized heavy rain
will be possible with any thunderstorm activity.

2. Increasing chances for showers and thunderstorms early next
week with a warming trend as well.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
As of 249 AM EDT Thursday...

KEY MESSAGE 1: While there is a possibility of some localized
fog this morning, unlike yesterday, coverage will be far less
than yesterday, and will be confined to the Connecticut River
Valley, generally around sunrise, if any fog does form. Into the
daylight hours today, a cold front currently across the Great
Lakes will slowly slide eastward towards our CWA. The front will
become quasi-stationary by midday today, setting up along or
just north of the International Border, oriented west to east.
Along the front, weak frontogenesis will help limit the strength
of the front, and overall hazards. A pre-frontal trough will
slide south of the boundary and help produce some showers and
thunderstorms focused across northern New York and northwestern
Vermont through this evening. Good instability will be hard to
achieve this afternoon with plenty of expected convective debris
from the west. That said, modest instability around 500-
1500J/kg should accompany the initial shortwave helping to
develop some isolated to scattered thunderstorms. As the first
round of showers and thunderstorms exists this evening, a brief
lull in the Champlain Valley will follow until closer to
midnight tonight. Showers will continue to linger across the St.
Lawrence Valley however. Between midnight and sunrise Friday,
the cold front will begin to slide south through the region,
with a resurgence of shower and possible thunderstorm activity.
Precipitation will be mainly focused over central and northern
Vermont overnight. Stronger storms continue to look unlikely
today due to poor mid level lapse rates and weaker shear to
around 30-35 KTs. The severe threat will be mainly conditional
on late morning to early afternoon shower activity, and will
likely favor weak small bowing segments given skinny CAPE
profiles. If any storms were to become stronger, damaging winds
would be the main threat. Moisture content will be the main
concern, albeit still low concerns, with this system. Storms
will follow the mean flow vector which could lead to some
isolated training cells over northern New York. Pwats will be
around 1.5-2" across much of northern New York, and northwestern
Vermont in addition to deep warm layer cloud depths. Given
recent rain overperformers with similar water profiles, have
increased the rainfall amounts slightly up, which has followed
some trends in the CAMs over northern New York and the central
Greens. Total rainfall between a quarter inch to half an inch is
expected for most areas north of US-4, with locally higher in
the northern St. Lawrence Valley and central Greens from
thunderstorm activity. As we near July 10th, and with the
potential for some brief training storms today, we wanted to say
this event is not expected to be anywhere near the flooding
potential of recent years. While localized heavy rains will be
possible, widespread or damaging flooding potential is not
expected. Showers look to be progressive and should not sit over
any one area even if multiple rounds of showers are possible.

As the cold front continues to slide south into Friday morning,
some lingering showers are possible in southern Vermont, with
perhaps some sprinkles and light showers until midday Friday.
Behind the front, cooler and drier northerly air will help
temperatures fall to the mid 70s to low 80s with dewpoints near
50 by Saturday afternoon. Some fog may be possible in the usual
river valleys Friday night due to recent rains and clearing
skies.

KEY MESSAGE 2: Ridging will build into the Northern Plains
early next week while an upper trough exits to our east. This
will place northern NY and New England under northwest flow.
Models continue to indicate a couple of weak fronts/surface
troughs to ride through this northwest flow and cross our
region. However, timing varies quite a bit from model and run to
run, leading to considerable uncertainty. Both moisture and
warmth will increase through this period, with highs approaching
90F and dewpoints rising into the 60s. With this in mind, any
thunderstorms could be strong if any boundaries push across the
region during peak heating. The exact timing is difficult to
pinpoint this far out though, especially given the differences
in model solutions, so have stayed with NBM/WPC forecast for
now, with 25-40% PoPs each afternoon.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Through 18Z Friday...A few small showers have begun to develop in our
area. The primary line of instability is approaching Massena as of
18z. The front will move to the south and east later in the evening.
Most of the storms will stay in the northern half of our CWA, with
less activity south of Washington County. A few thunderstorms could
reach severe criteria, and could reduce visibility during the most
intense times. After the shower activity dwindles, patchy fog will
develop as some moisture will become trapped near the surface. The
rain totals won`t be enough for widespread or dense fog. At this
time, we anticipate primarily mvfr visibilities overnight.

Outlook...

Friday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Saturday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Saturday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Sunday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Sunday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Monday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Monday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
Tuesday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$

WHAT HAS CHANGED...Danzig
DISCUSSION...Neiles/Danzig
AVIATION...Langbauer