858
FXUS61 KBTV 140656
AFDBTV
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
256 AM EDT Tue Apr 14 2026
.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
As of 303 PM EDT Monday...
Removed wind advisory and made minor tweaks to temperatures
and timing of precip through midweek.
&&
.KEY MESSAGES...
As of 254 AM EDT Tuesday...
1. Showers with embedded thunderstorms are expected on Tuesday
with a couple of stronger storms possible, mainly south of Route 4.
2. Additional rounds of showers and thunderstorms are expected
Wednesday and Thursday as boundary remains draped across our
forecast area.
3. A more amplified weather pattern and shortwave will lead to
unseasonably warm conditions and scattered rain showers at the end
of the week.
4. A round of widespread showers Saturday night and Sunday will
usher in a sharply cooler period early next week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
As of 254 AM EDT Tuesday...
KEY MESSAGE 1: The forecast challenge is amount of clearing and
associated sfc heating/instability that can develop on Tues. GOES-19
water vapor imagery shows compact s/w energy moving along the
International Border this aftn, while large area of subsidence/dry
air aloft is located over the central Great Lake and approaching
the SLV. As this moves overhead tonight, expect lowering cloud
levels with some patchy fog possible over the northern Dack
Valleys. Lows generally in the mid 40s to mid 50s tonight.
For Tuesday our s/w energy of interest is currently located over
central IA with developing lightning over northern IL/WI. This
energy wl quickly move eastward in the fast 700-500mb flow aloft and
being located over the eastern Great Lakes by 12z Tues. Upstream
satl imagery shows a rather messy warm sector in regards to plenty
of clouds and feel this could influence our sfc heating/instability
acrs our cwa on Tues. Weak sfc low pres is expected to travel along
boundary draped near the International Border on Tues with very warm
925mb to 850mb thermal profiles, but soundings low clouds stuck
under the inversion in the morning and mid/upper lvl convective
debris clouds developing by early aftn, which wl probably limit sfc
heating. HREF shows the greatest potential for sfc based CAPE
profiles >500 J/kg south of a SLK to LEB line of 40 to 60%, with
highest potential mainly south of Route 4. Meanwhile, the
probability of 0 to 6 km shear >50 knots is 80 to 100% near the
International Border, indicating strongest winds are north and best
deep layer instability is south. NAM 12KM/NAM 3KM solutions are the
most aggressive with sfc/mu CAPE values of 1000-1500 J/kg into our
central/southern cwa, while HRRR/WRF NSSL and RAP are <500 J/kg.
This wl become a nowcasting scenario on Tuesday, watching if clouds
can dissipate and timing of boundary crossing our cwa for
determining how robust convection can develop. For now a few
stronger storms are possible mainly Rutland/Windsor counties, but
feel greatest action wl be south of our cwa. The latest SPC day2
outlook continues to place part of our cwa in a Marginal Risk (1 out
of 5). Temps are very challenging on Tues as 925mb temps would
suggest highs well into the mid 70s to lower 80s, but clouds and
precip with sharpening boundary wl have significant impacts on
highs. Have mid 60s SLV to near 80F VSF.
KEY MESSAGE 2: An active pattern is expected for Weds and Thurs as
boundary remains draped acrs our cwa with multiple s/w`s riding in
the westerly flow aloft producing additional chcs for precip.
Boundary position and clouds wl have significant impact on temps and
sfc instability for both Weds/Thurs. Latest trends indicate
additional s/w energy arriving acrs our western cwa by 15z with some
instability possible acrs our central/southern fa. Clouds and precip
wl impact thermal profiles and associated thermal dynamics. Any
stronger/deeper convection wl have the potential to produce
localized heavy downpours, especially with pw values approaching
1.5" or 2 to 3 std above normal on Weds. Similar type temp profile
as Tuesday with greatest probability of mid 70s acrs
Rutland/Windsor counties, with coolest air over the northern
SLV/CPV and parts of the NEK. Little change in the large scale
synoptic pattern is anticipated on Thursday, as additional s/w
dynamics and moisture in the westerly 700 to 500mb flow impacts
our cwa. Additional showers with embedded storms are expected,
with some localized heavy downpours possible. As always, the
instability wl be driving factor on how strong storms can
become, but progged 925mb temps are very warm again with values
in the 14-18C range. If sun develops highs easily in the 70s,
but if clouds prevail with occasional showers, temps mostly hold
in the upper 50s to mid 60s.
KEY MESSAGE 3: A quick-hitting shortwave will bring some rain showers
and potential embedded thunderstorms, mainly in southern Vermont, on
Friday as guidance indicates 925mb temperatures could reach 13-17 C
Friday afternoon. Due to this and decreasing clouds, forecast
surface temps are as high as the 60s and lower 70s, with non-zero
instability values projected. Probability of measurable
precipitation runs about 30-60% Friday afternoon, likely realized as
spotty showers everywhere and a few rumbles of thunder in
central/southern Vermont. Lows Friday night should remain mild in
the 40s and lower 50s, with only a brief period of high pressure
between systems late Friday night and Saturday morning. The next
chance for precipitation arrives late Saturday afternoon and evening
as a larger frontal system approaches. Despite increasing clouds,
temperatures are expected to again rise above seasonable normals
Saturday, reaching into the 60s in strong southerly flow and modest
warm air advection.
KEY MESSAGE 4: A large frontal system, centered over Ontario and the
Hudson Bay Saturday night, will drag a cold frontal boundary through
the forecast area into Sunday. Lows Saturday night in the 40s and
lower 50s will fall into the upper 20s to mid 30s on Sunday night,
and highs Sunday in the mid 50s to lower 60s become upper 30s to mid
40s Monday as cooler air spills into the region on northwesterly
flow behind a secondary cold front. Probabilities of measurable
precipitation in six hours are about 50-65% by Sunday afternoon,
though probabilities of rainfall 0.50" within 24 hours during this
period is around 10-30%. Thunderstorms are most likely Sunday
afternoon in northern New York when warmth lingers, but the timing
of instability, warmth, and forcing do not align favorably for
widespread t-storms in this system as the best forcing occurs at
night. Sunday night and Monday, as temperatures fall, there is the
potential for some snow showers, mainly at higher elevations, before
the arrival of drier air behind a secondary front tapers off precip.
High pressure keeps weather quieter and cool toward the middle of
next week.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Through 06Z Wednesday...Showers with embedded thunderstorms are
expected on Tuesday with a couple of stronger storms possible. Winds
tonight are generally westerly to northwesterly with a few gusts
observed in southern Vermont 10-20 knots. In areas seeing a lighter
wind and breaks in clouds, some patchy fog may develop over the
next few hours. Around 12Z-15Z Tuesday, a southerly wind will
develop, except at MSS, which should see more northeasterly to
northerly winds. Ceilings throughout the day will likely hover
around 2500-3500 feet above ground level, potentially lower in
showers crossing west to east across northern New York and Vermont
15Z Tuesday through 00Z Wednesday. Embedded thunderstorms are
possible starting at 18Z Tuesday, but when and where t-storms occur
is not clear at this time, so TAFs have only SHRA. Also with these
showers and t-storms, gusts 30-35 knots are not out of the question.
However, like the t- storms, the timing and location of such gusts is
of higher uncertainty, so gusts closer to 15-25 knots are in the
TAFs. Some LLWS is also expected as southwest to west winds at 2000
ft agl increase along the showers/storms, around 20Z Tuesday
onwards. With the passage of the showers/associated frontal
boundary, surface winds should turn out of the west-northwest again
(except MSS) by around 00Z Wednesday, and ceilings are expected to
fall into widespread IFR levels into the evening.
Outlook...
Wednesday: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Likely SHRA,
Slight chance TSRA.
Wednesday Night: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. Chance SHRA,
Slight chance TSRA.
Thursday: Mainly MVFR, with areas IFR possible. Likely SHRA,
Slight chance TSRA.
Thursday Night: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. Chance SHRA.
Friday: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. Chance SHRA.
Friday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight chance
SHRA.
Saturday: MVFR. Slight chance SHRA.
&&
.EQUIPMENT...
The Colchester Reef meteorological station is out of service.
This site is not serviced by the NWS. An estimated return to
service is May 1st. Please contact us if you observe winds
significantly deviating from the recreational forecast.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.
&&
$$
WHAT HAS CHANGED...Taber
DISCUSSION...Taber/Storm
AVIATION...Storm
EQUIPMENT...NWS BTV
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