098
FXUS61 KBTV 300531
AFDBTV
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
131 AM EDT Mon Mar 30 2026
.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
As of 224 PM EDT Sunday...
Temperatures for Monday have been increased slightly given
slightly warmer air being advected northward. We are now looking
at temperatures warming into the mid 50s to lower 60s. In
addition, rainfall totals have been increased for Monday night
through Wednesday evening with widespread 1-1.5 inches expected
with localized 2+ inches possible. No flooding is anticipated at
this time.
&&
.KEY MESSAGES...
As of 224 PM EDT Sunday...
1. Quiet and seasonably mild weather expected today and Monday.
2. Widespread rainfall is expected Tuesday and Wednesday with
some rivers possibly approaching bankful.
3. Mixed precipitation possible Thursday Into Friday.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
As of 224 PM EDT Sunday...
KEY MESSAGE 1: Partly sunny skies will continue through the
remainder of today and again on Monday. Warm air advection is
already underway, which is evident in temperatures already in
the mid 30s to lower 40s which happens to be nearly 10 degrees
warmer than this time yesterday. Southerly winds have increased,
especially in the Champlain Valley to 20 to 25 mph at times.
These winds will weaken tonight as the boundary layer stabilizes
with a return of wind gusts between 20 and 35 mph Monday
afternoon. These winds will help usher in an even warmer
airmass, with temperatures climbing into the mid 50s to lower
60s Monday afternoon.
KEY MESSAGE 2: A wet pattern is expected across the North
Country and northern New York on Tuesday and is likely to
continue well into Wednesday. A warm front is expected to slide
north through the region Tuesday morning before stalling just
north of the International Border. Initially, rainfall is
expected to be more scattered in nature but will become
widespread by early afternoon as an area of low pressure and
shortwave energy aloft moves along the frontal boundary. Models
are pinging some impressive low-level and mid-level forcing
which should help produce a period of moderate rainfall late
Tuesday afternoon and Tuesday evening. A brief break in steady
precipitation is expected Tuesday night as the warm front
finally makes progress northward. However, it will be short-
lived as a cold front will quickly move into the region early
Wednesday morning with another period of moderate rainfall
possible with decent convergence along the leading edge of the
front. Following the frontal passage Wednesday morning,
conditions will rapidly dry out but winds will be gusty from the
northwest at 20 to 30 mph in addition to falling temperatures
throughout the day. It`ll be quite the contrast to the previous
days in the 50s and 60s.
In terms of rainfall, we are looking at a widespread 1-1.5
inches of rainfall with localized 2+ inches possible. The GFS
and NAM differ significantly with the strength of the low level
jet Tuesday afternoon which will impact our precipitation
pattern as a stronger southwest jet would favor less winds in
the Champlain Valley but could also support 40+ mph winds. For
now, a GFS/ECMWF/CMC blend which is more in line with the NBM
with the NAM being an outlier. The MMEFS does show some decent
river rises Tuesday into Wednesday with less than 25% chance of
minor river flooding. We do expected river to approach bankful
in a few locations (AuSable, Otter Creek, Mad River) but aren`t
currently expecting any flooding at this time. We could see the
probability of minor flooding increase or decrease based on the
expected precipitation, so continue to check back in on the
forecast to see if this changes.
KEY MESSAGE 3: Another storm system makes a run at the region
for late Thursday into Friday, but it currently looks to take a
slightly more southerly track than the one earlier in the week.
However, the models have been trending north so it is looking
warmer than yesterday. Canadian high pressure will be
established on Thursday and it will provide a cold antecedent
airmass for this low pressure to run into. With the current
favored storm track, the precipitation looks to start as a
wintry mix and transition to all rain, but being relatively far
out, there is plenty of time for a significant change in the
storm track and therefore precipitation types. Combined
GEFS/EPS/CAN ensemble probabilities of 1 inch or more of snow
generally range between 40-70 percent, 3 are between 20-40
percent and 6 are between 10-20 percent. The highest
probabilities are farther northeast. Probabilities of 0.1 inch
or more of freezing rain are between 20-40 percent for the
favored locations east of the Greens and in southern Essex
County NY. The large caveat here is that with the warming trend
and looking at the new deterministic guidance, these
probabilities will likely come down, especially with the snow.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Through 06Z Tuesday...Mid/high clouds will continue to increase
overnight as a warm front lifts across the region. This SCT-
BKN cloud cover will remain AOA 5000 ft through 18z Mon, then
start to slowly lower thereafter as moisture increasing ahead of
an approaching cold front. Ceilings should generally remain VFR
until 00z Tue, with KSLK the lone exception where some MVFR
ceilings will creep in during the afternoon hours. A few showers
are possible Monday afternoon, mainly over the higher terrain.
Generally light S/SW winds overnight tonight will give way to
gusty conditions during the day Monday. Gusts of 20-30 kt are
expected, with the strongest gusts to occur in the St Lawrence
and Champlain Valleys. Note that some marginal wind shear will
also be possible overnight tonight as a LLJ works overhead. The
main time frame for any LLWS would be 06z-12z.
Outlook...
Tuesday: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Chance RA.
Tuesday Night: Mainly IFR, with areas MVFR possible. Definite RA.
Wednesday: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Chance RA.
Wednesday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight
chance RA.
Thursday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance RA, Chance
SN.
Thursday Night: MVFR and IFR. Likely RA, Likely SN.
Friday: Mainly MVFR, with local VFR possible. Likely RA.
&&
.EQUIPMENT...
The Colchester Reef meteorological station is out of service.
This site is not serviced by the NWS. An estimated return to
service is May 1st. Please contact us if you observe winds
significantly deviating from the recreational forecast.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.
&&
$$
WHAT HAS CHANGED...Clay
DISCUSSION...Myskowski/Clay
AVIATION...Neiles
EQUIPMENT...NWS BTV
|
