576
FXUS61 KBTV 221340
AFDBTV
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
840 AM EST Sun Feb 22 2026
.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
As of 838 AM EST Sunday...
Made some morning adjustments to the PoPs, temperatures, dew
points, weather, and sky cover today. Snow has been making it
into northern New York this morning, so have adjusted PoPs
upwards and tweaked weather to better match these observations
of snow showers. Also increased sky cover outside of the
Greens/Northeast Kingdom due to this. Temperatures and dew
points needed some slight adjustments as many locations across
the Northeast Kingdom fell lower in temperature than previously
anticipated.
&&
.KEY MESSAGES...
As of 156 AM EST Sunday...
1. A strong nor`easter developing off the Mid-Atlantic coast
will bring snowfall and breezy conditions to the region, with the
greatest snowfall amounts expected across southern and central
Vermont.
2. Cold weather is expected Monday night through Tuesday night.
With the combination of lingering strong northwest gusts, wind
chills of -5 to -15 are possible over northern New York through
Tuesday afternoon.
3. Active weather expected over the latter half of next week
with several rounds of widespread precipitation in the forecast.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
As of 156 AM EST Sunday...
KEY MESSAGE 1: A strong Nor`easter looks to develop off the Mid-
Atlantic coast today, with the center of the low tracking southeast
of Cape Cod tonight into Monday. While this system will bring heavy
snow and blizzard conditions to southern New England, our region
will remain on the northern periphery of the system with a fairly
sharp snowfall gradient expected, as typical with these systems. As
of now, the current forecast shows 3 to 5 inches across south
central Vermont, with 1 to 3 across central Vermont, while more
northern locations and most of northern New York will miss out. As
of now, the bulk of the snowfall looks to fall Monday morning,
before gradually winding down Monday afternoon and evening as the
coastal low pulls away. Due to increased confidence of higher snow
amounts, a Winter Weather Advisory has been issued for Rutland and
Windsor counties from 1 AM Monday to 7 PM Monday. In addition to the
snowfall, gusty winds are also expected with this system, with gusts
in the 30 to 40 mph range increasingly likely across southern
Vermont. These winds could lead to blowing snow, making for even
more hazardous travel conditions and reduced visibilities,
especially in any mountain passes so be sure be alert and use
caution if traveling through southern Vermont Monday.
KEY MESSAGE 2: Even as powerful, deep low pressure shifts east of the
region, we`ll still feel some impacts Monday night into Tuesday.
Isobars remain tightly packed as arctic high pressure noses down
across James Bay. Temperatures will sink towards 0 F across northern
New York while winds remain around 10-20 mph with gusts up to 25.
Temperatures will feel more like -5 to -15 across the region.
Vermont is likely to remain a bit warmer, as the core of coldest air
doesn`t arrive in Vermont until midday, and the depth of cold is
also somewhat shallow with an inversion around 2000 ft agl meaning
that cold air will have a harder time making it over mountain
ridges. Highs on Tuesday will creep into the 10s over northern New
York and far northern Vermont, while the lower Champlain Valley and
Upper Valley warm into the 20s. A few lingering snow showers will be
possible as an incoming shortwave gets absorbed within deep, stacked
low pressure and arctic maritime moisture wraps around. The forecast
for temperatures on Tuesday night is somewhat tricky when high
pressure settles in and winds go calm. We may radiate initially, but
cloud cover from the next system will already be approaching, and it
may cap things off early. The current forecast is about -5 to 5 F.
If there`s less cloud cover, perennial cold spot Saranac Lake, New
York may make a break for it and drop to the teens below zero.
KEY MESSAGE 3: The second half of next week will observe moderating
temperatures behind the brief cold, with very seasonable conditions.
The range of model scenarios is a bit less, and it appears they have
a better handle of the two systems translating east across the
region. The first seems less impactful. During the day Tuesday, a
surface low will develop off the Rockies as a vort is ejected out of
British Columbia and skirt the international border over the course
of its life. The cyclone will mature over Lake Superior and be on
the decline upon reaching Vermont and northern New York. The system
will be somewhat lacking in moisture (PWATS 0.15-0.25), but enough
forcing should exist as the trough acquires a negative tilt with low-
level speed convergence due to the positioning of a LLJ across the
Mid-Atlantic that we should be able to manage about 0.05-0.25" of
liquid. Upper air temperatures will stay very cold in the wake of
the early week coastal. So even as surface temperatures warm near
freezing to the mid 30s, the warm air is very shallow, and so
precipitation will likely remain entirely snow.
The Thursday night into Friday morning feature appears more likely
to have some impact. It`s a fast moving system, with precipitation
likely confined to a 18 hour window, but several ingredients for
synoptic forcing will be present. Unfortunately, one of those is a
fairly strong southerly jet in the 850-700mb level at 50-55 knots,
maybe even approaching 60 kts depending on which model scenario
you`re looking at. Some guidance keeps us cool enough that
everything is all snow, but a handful allows a warm nose aloft that
causes mixed p-types in the forecast area. There is some latitude
spread, with some keeping activity suppressed far enough south that
we see little, but the majority indicate widespread precipitation
will be headed our way.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Through 12Z Monday...Conditions are currently a mix of VFR and
MVFR, mainly as a result of a status deck persisting around
2000-6000 ft agl. Very light snow is being observed, mainly over
northern New York, and the expectation is any visibility
restrictions in snow will mainly be with 3-8SM. Winds will be
mostly light and variable with a preference for southeasterly
flow, and this will shift MVFR ceilings and snow out, and then
winds will become more east to northeast, and finally northerly
in response to a developing coastal low. On the northwest side
of it, very dry air will likely result in ceilings rising
towards 6000-12000 ft agl with wind speeds increasing to 5 to 10
knots. At KRUT and KMPV, some LLWS is possible as northeast to
east winds at 2000 ft agl increase to 35-40 knots. Between 06z
and 12z Monday, snow will begin to reach KRUT.
Outlook...
Monday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SN.
Monday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight chance
SN.
Tuesday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday: Mainly MVFR and IFR, with areas VFR possible. Likely
SN.
Wednesday Night: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Chance SN.
Thursday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SN.
&&
.EQUIPMENT...
The KMPV ASOS has suffered a communications failure. The issue
has been diagnosed, but there is currently no estimated time of
return to service. Terminal Aerodrome Forecasts will continue,
but amendments to those forecasts will be suspended.
NOAA Weather Radio station WXM-44, transmitting from Mt.
Ascutney, Vermont, on frequency 162.475 MHz is non- operational
at this time. NWS technicians have diagnosed the problem, but
repairs will likely not be able to occur for quite some time due
to circumstances beyond our control. Therefore, the time of
return to service is currently unknown. The following NOAA
Weather Radio transmitters may be able to provide service during
this outage: WWG 50 from Burke Mtn, VT at 162.425 MHz and WNG
546 from Hanover, NH at 162.525 MHz.
The Colchester Reef meteorological station is out of service.
This site is not serviced by the NWS and there isn`t an
estimated return to service at present. Please contact us if you
observe winds significantly deviating from the recreational
forecast.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...Winter Weather Advisory from 1 AM to 7 PM EST Monday for
VTZ011-019>021.
NY...None.
&&
$$
WHAT HAS CHANGED...Storm
DISCUSSION...Haynes/Kremer
AVIATION...Haynes
EQUIPMENT...NWS BTV
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