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  Wednesday December 13, 2017

 

NWS Area Forecast Discussion


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000
FXUS61 KBTV 130856
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
356 AM EST Wed Dec 13 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Deep low pressure will pull away into eastern Canada today into
tonight with widespread light snows and snow showers tapering
off. Cold and blustery weather is expected into Thursday before
winds abate. Thereafter a slow moderation in temperatures is
expected into next weekend with a few snow showers expected.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 354 AM EST Wednesday...Have gone ahead and cancelled
advisories and warnings across the remainder of northern NY and
southern VT with this package, though have maintained headlines
across northern VT where steadier light snows continue early
this morning. As deepening low pressure across eastern Maine
pulls away into the maritimes by this afternoon a tightening
pressure gradient will evolve producing gusty northwesterly
winds into the 20 to 30 mph range with localized higher gusts.
Temperatures will hold nearly steady from 10 to 20 above so
there will be quite the chill in the air with apparent
temperatures hovering in the +/- single digits. Hi-res model
output remains consistent in showing orographically enhanced
wrap-around light snows to continue across much of northern VT
through the morning hours under modestly blocked low level flow.
During this period additional accumulations mainly in the 1-3
inch range are expected with localized higher totals in favored
upslope areas and higher terrain above 2000 feet. By this
afternoon the flow trends more unblocked and as deeper moisture
pivots northward and away from the area the activity will
decrease in areal coverage and become increasingly confined to
the higher elevations over time. This is the period during which
the northwesterly wind gusts will peak across the area creating
areas of blowing snow and reduced visibilities. Given these
conditions persons traveling across the Winter Storm Warning
area today should prepare for locally difficult travel and
ensure they have proper winter survival material in their
vehicles such as a blanket and fully charged cell phone.

By tonight into Thursday sensible weather conditions gradually trend
quieter, though we`ll remain under deep cyclonic flow and a modest
pressure gradient so winds will only abate slowly. A weak secondary
clipper low will pass to our south tonight into Thursday morning and
have little impact on area weather. Skies trend partly cloudy
tonight, then partly to mostly sunny on Thursday. Lows tonight to
mainly range in the +/- single digits with wind chills falling into
the negative single digits and teens so bundle up. High on Thursday
generally in the 9 to 18 above range with customary variation.


&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 354 AM EST Wednesday...Clear to partly cloudy skies then
continue into Thursday night as weak high pressure bridges
across the area. Winds to trend light south to southwesterly
preventing a full free-fall in temperatures. That said it will
still be quite chilly with lows by sunrise Friday once again in
the +/- single digits and wind chills in the negative single
digits/teens.

Looking ahead to Friday the background flow continues to back to
south/southwesterly in advance of another, though much weaker
northern stream clipper low across the northern Great Lakes. Mainly
dry weather continues, though lake snow showers off Lake
Ontario should lift northward over time, possibly affecting
southwestern St. Lawrence county with light accumulations. High
temperatures to trend more reasonable - mainly upper teens to
lower 20s, which will feel considerably nicer given the lighter
wind regime.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 140 AM EST Wednesday....A weak clipper type system will
move across the North country Friday night into Saturday.
Scattered light snow showers are anticipated with this system.
Saturday night a ridge of high pressure will briefly build over
the region, ahead of another weak low crossing north of our area
and bringing more light snow showers on Sunday night. Some
differences arise between the GFS and ECMWF headed into early
next week, but pattern looks to remain active with several more
chances for light snow showers. No major storms going all the
way out through the work week next week. Lower than normal
temperatures for this weekend will return to above seasonal
normals headed into early next week.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Through 06Z Wednesday...Snow will resume at BTV and MPV with IFR
conditions at times. Other terminals are mostly done with the
snow this time around. Ceilings have improved to VFR at most
places with MVFR ceilings remaining at MSS and SLK. Winds will
turn to the northwest at all terminals by 08z, generally at
5-15 kt. Winds will increase during the day Wednesday with gusts
of 25-30 kt expected. Ceilings will continue to improve through
the period.

Outlook...

Thursday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Thursday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Friday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight chance SHSN.
Friday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Scattered
SHSN.
Saturday: Mainly MVFR, with local VFR possible. Scattered SHSN.
Saturday Night: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. Slight
chance SHSN.
Sunday: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. Slight chance SHSN.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...Winter Storm Warning until 7 PM EST this evening for VTZ003-
     004-006>008-016>018.
     Winter Weather Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for VTZ002-
     005.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMG
NEAR TERM...JMG
SHORT TERM...JMG
LONG TERM...Neiles
AVIATION...Neiles


 
 
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