199
FXUS61 KBTV 261923
AFDBTV
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
323 PM EDT Fri Jun 26 2026
.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
As of 313 PM EDT Friday...
Severe thunderstorm watch #397 until 01 UTC for Rutland, Windsor,
Addison, and Orange counties in VT, for the potential for 1 inch
hail and localized wind gusts up to 60 mph.
&&
.KEY MESSAGES...
As of 313 PM EDT Friday...
1. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will exit our forecast
area by 9 PM this evening with patchy fog developing overnight.
2. Heat and humidity will gradually build early next week. A
round of showers and thunderstorms may occur late Tuesday into
Wednesday, followed by additional chances of thunderstorms later in
the week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
As of 313 PM EDT Friday...
KEY MESSAGE 1: GOES-19 mid lvl water vapor imagery shows potent s/w
energy crossing northern NY/VT this aftn, while left front quad of
100 knot jet is angling toward southern VT and helping to enhanced
deep ulvl divergence over Rutland/Windsor Counties. However,
abundant cloud cover has kept temps mostly in the mid 60s to lower
70s today with dwpts upper 50s to lower 60s, creating sfc based CAPE
values in the 500-1200 J/kg. Some breaks are evident in the latest
GOES-19 satellite imagery over central/southern VT, ahead of broken
line of developing convection over northern NY. The 0-6km effective
shear is 35 to 45 knots, mostly driven off the strengthening 3-6km
wind fields acrs central/southern VT. Given the above scenario,
thinking dynamically driven showers and thunderstorms are likely
with some stronger storms capable of localized wind gusts up to 60
mph, 1 inch hail and frequent cloud to ground lightning. Highest
probability of stronger convection will be along and south of a SLK
to MPV line through 7 PM this evening, and by 9 PM activity should
be exiting our fa.
As strong subsidence builds acrs our cwa tonight per latest water
vapor trends areas of clearing should develop with a combination of
low level stratus and fog likely, especially given recent rainfall
and saturated soils. Difficult challenge is areal coverage and what
areas see stratus vs fog, but general idea of patchy dense fog looks
good. Lows mostly in the 50s to near 60F.
On Sat widely scattered trrn driven showers and embedded storms are
expected over the northern Dacks and parts of the central/northern
Greens. Soundings indicate a small sliver of instability with CAPE
values btwn 400-800 J/kg, but column is very dry btwn 800-500mb,
which wl limit areal coverage of convection. The idea of garden
variety activity is expected, given the lack of moisture/instability
and shear on Sat. For Sunday 1016mb high pres noses into our cwa
with drier air and less instability/moisture, which should result in
mostly dry conditions. Still cannot completely rule out an isolated
shower or two over the northern mtns, but probability and coverage
wl be limited. Highs warm into the upper 70s to mid 80s with
comfortable humidity values.
KEY MESSAGE 2: Summertime heat and humidity is expected to build for
the beginning of next week, with high pressure centered over the
Ohio Valley slowly nudging into the region. High temperatures look
to climb into the upper 80s into the 90s throughout the week, with
the warmest conditions expected towards the end of upcoming week.
There is still some uncertainty as to the exact extent of the heat
earlier in the week as confidence is increasing in the potential for
a system along the periphery of the ridge Tuesday into Wednesday
bringing increased chances for showers and thunderstorms. The air
mass will be favorable in regards to heavy rain potential with PWAT
surging well over 2 inches, but trends will still need to be
monitored as we head into next week. Showers and cloud cover could
impact how warm temperatures are able to climb. Thursday looks to
have greater heat impacts given increased humidity, although there
is still some uncertainty in the exact extent of the heat. With the
warmth expected ahead, it is good to remember to stay hydrate and
take frequent breaks if working outdoors. As we head throughout the
week, the increased humidity will allow for additional chances for
showers and thunderstorms.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Through 18Z Saturday...A mix of MVFR and VFR conditions currently
prevail this afternoon as showers and isolated thunderstorms
continue to develop and move across the region. These conditions are
expected to continue over the next few hours, with PROB30 groups
utilized to cover the shower chances given uncertainty in timing and
location at each terminals. Conditions are expected to trend towards
VFR this afternoon and evening, with light winds this afternoon with
the exception of any thunderstorm wind gusts. Winds are expected to
trend calm overnight. After the rain this morning and additional
showers this afternoon, the light winds and clearing skies will
support the development of IFR conditions tonight due to developing
fog and low stratus at most terminals, generally between 06Z and
12Z. The greatest confidence of IFR will be at KSLK/KMPV/KMSS/KEFK
with low confidence at other terminals, but chances cannot be ruled
out completely. Improvement back towards VFR is expected tomorrow
morning as fog dissipates.
Outlook...
Saturday Night: VFR. Patchy BR.
Sunday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
Sunday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Monday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Monday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
Tuesday: VFR. Chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA.
Tuesday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA,
Slight chance TSRA.
Wednesday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight chance
SHRA, Slight chance TSRA.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.
&&
$$
WHAT HAS CHANGED...Taber
DISCUSSION...Taber/Kremer
AVIATION...Kremer
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