000
FXUS61 KBTV 211803
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
203 PM EDT Mon Aug 21 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Another quiet weather day for Monday with partly cloudy skies
and seasonable temperatures. An approaching low pressure system
will increases chances for showers and thunderstorms Tuesday,
with showers lingering into Wednesday. The remainder of the week
is shaping up to be mainly dry, with plentiful sunshine and
below normal temperatures.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
As of 203 PM EDT Monday...No changes with this update. Forecast
is on target this morning. Low- level moisture with Td in the
60s have led to some cumulus clouds over the mountains. CAPE of
500-1000 J/kg forecast on RAP but should be just capped enough
to prevent any convection. We will make it into the 80s (around
87 KBTV) with 850 temps 14-16C. The partial eclipse may hold
temps a couple degrees down during mid afternoon.

Very nice day in store for this Monday to start the work week.
Surface high pressure ridge still reaching the area, centered
over the Mid Atlantic region will be shifting eastward today.
Light winds will become southerly today. Warm air advection
ahead of next approaching low pressure system, therefore max
temps will edge into the upper 80s. Should be a good day to view
the partial solar eclipse with proper safety precautions, 240
pm will be peak viewing time and skies should mainly be clear at
that time.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 500 AM EDT Monday...More active weather is expected
beginning Tuesday afternoon. Strong southwesterly flow will
continue tonight. Low pressure system takes shape tonight over
the Great Lakes region as a deepening 500 mb trough moves into
the western Great Lakes. Pwats will increase during this time
period with low level moisture advecting into the area on the
strong southwesterly flow, nearing 2" by Tuesday morning.
Increasing shear profile expected with 500 mb jet nearing 50
kts. Surface low will pass North of our forecast area on Tuesday
along with trailing cold front which will be reaching our
Northern New York zones around 18z. Front moves east across our
forecast area and will be east of Vermont by 12z Wednesday
morning. Showers and thunderstorms will develop out ahead of the
frontal boundary, starting in the Saint Lawrence valley and then
spreading eastward. Models are indicating Cape in the 1-2k
range, so will have some decent low level instability as well.
Storms will be strongest in Northern New York due to placement
of jet lining up with Saint Lawrence valley, good low level
0-6 km shear. Temperatures will warm to almost 90 across the
area. Heavy rainfall and strong gusty winds are possible with
these storms, but storm motions should be fast enough to avoid
flash flooding. Hi res models depict a line of storms forming
and moving across our area between 20z and 04z. Storms should be
ending by about midnight. Upper level trough will pass north of
the region on Wednesday bringing some shortwave energy across
our area and will have to mention chance for some more showers
with this feature, though mainly confined to the higher
elevations. Cooler air will begin to move into the area later
Wednesday as well behind departing cold front, highs will be
closer to seasonal normals Wed.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 415 AM EDT Monday...The North Country will remain under
the influence of mid-level cyclonic flow throughout the period,
while high pressure will build at the surface. The period will
start with a surface front that will move across the region with
a chance for showers on Thursday. Behind this front, northwest
to northerly flow will settle in with the main 500mb trough
lagging behind on Friday and result in slight chance of showers.
On Saturday, surface high pressure will build in with drier air
as PWATs fall to 0.5-0.7 inches. Outside of a slight chance for
orographic shower or two on Saturday, expect dry conditions
through the end of the period with strong surface ridge
continuing to affect the region into Monday. Temperatures will
be slightly lower than late August normals throughout the
period.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Through 12Z Tuesday...Mainly VFR in westerly flow under high
pressure except lcl IFR in intermittent patchy fog SLK/MPV
07-11Z as boundary layer winds will decouple but enough to
preclude prolonged fog. Winds S-SW around 10kts, with gusts
around 20kts at KMSS and KSLK. Winds will subside this evening,
decreasing to around 5 kts or less. On Tuesday, continued VFR
through 18z but shower and thunderstorm threat increases ahead
of a cold front at the end of the TAF period.

Outlook...

Tuesday Night: VFR. Likely SHRA...Occasional TSRA.
Wednesday: VFR. Slight Chance SHRA.
Wednesday Night: VFR. Slight Chance SHRA.
Thursday: VFR. Slight Chance SHRA.
Thursday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Friday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Friday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Saturday: VFR. NO SIG WX.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Neiles
NEAR TERM...Neiles/Sisson
SHORT TERM...Neiles
LONG TERM...KGM
AVIATION...Sisson