905
FXUS61 KBTV 300633
AFDBTV
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
233 AM EDT Thu Jul 30 2026
.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
As of 232 AM EDT Thursday...
No significant changes have been made to the forecast. Additional
showers and possibly a few thunderstorms will continue today but the
threat for flooding will remain low today.
&&
.KEY MESSAGES...
As of 232 AM EDT Thursday...
1. Unsettled weather to continue today with quieter weather
expected Friday and Saturday.
2. Widespread rainfall expected on Sunday. Isolated flooding
possible.
3. Cold frontal passage brings lingering rainfall Sunday night,
followed by clearing and warming conditions for early to mid next
week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
As of 232 AM EDT Thursday...
KEY MESSAGE 1: The negatively tilted upper level trough will be in no
hurry to exit the region today with the surface low pressure system
expected to slowly slide offshore around daybreak. We will remain
under the influence of cyclonic flow and plentiful deep layer
moisture with PWAT values remaining in the 1.3 to 1.6 inch range.
Cooler temperatures today will limit daytime heating and instability
but it`s plausible that we see a few breaks throughout the day,
especially across eastern Vermont. These breaks could yield 500 J/kg
of CAPE which would be sufficient to produce a few thunderstorms.
The main focus on heavier precipitation today will be across the
Connecticut River Valley which is an area that was not hit hard over
the past 48 hours. While we remain in a marginal risk for flash
flooding throughout the day, it`s unlikely we will see the rainfall
rates needed to yield flash flooding. Still, the slow motion of the
storms will be concerning and will bear watching this afternoon and
evening.
After days of rainfall, high pressure will settle into the region
Friday and Saturday with drier weather expected during this
timeframe. Temperatures will warm closer to seasonal normals as we
start to see some sunshine while dewpoints will remain in the mid
50s to lower 60s. It`s likely that we see some patchy dense fog
Friday and Saturday mornings given a subsidence inversion and
saturated soils from recent rainfall.
KEY MESSAGE 2: A slow moving upper level trough will move over New
England on Sunday and is expected to take on a neutral so slightly
negative tilt. Both the ECMWF and GFS have this transition to a
slower moving system Sunday afternoon into the early Monday
timeframe with the Canadian model showing a more southerly track and
less phasing of the subtropical jet. There should be sufficient
frontal dynamics ahead of an approaching cold front coupled with
decent mid-level jet dynamics. In addition, deterministic guidance
shows impressive PWAT values in the 1.7 to 1.9 inch range which is
in the 90th + percentile. The slow moving front may yield another
round of slow moving convection across the North Country and
northern New York with rainfall totals in the 0.75 to 1.5 inch range
very much in play. Depending on the motion of the storms, WPC
believes we could see some localized 3+ inches of rainfall and have
placed us in a marginal risk for flash flooding on Sunday. This
system has some similarities to what we just saw across the Capital
Region of New York and is something to watch closely for the second
half of the upcoming weekend.
KEY MESSAGE 3: Cold front and attendant mid-level trough should be
progressing across the North Country from west to east Sunday night
per consensus of 00Z NWP guidance suite. May see a few embedded
thunderstorms with brief heavy rainfall with convective activity
along the front. However, the good news is that this system appears
to be relatively progressive, with the highest PoPs before midnight
(70-80% across VT) and then exiting eastward toward daybreak on
Monday. Depending on translation speed of the front and overall
timing, would generally expect 0.5 to 1.0 inch rainfall most areas
Sunday night. A clearing, drying, and warming trend is expected
thereafter for the Monday through Wednesday time frame. Valley highs
on Monday generally reach the lower 80s with dewpoints in the lower
60s. Will see a gradual increase in temperatures and humidity levels
thereafter with highs back in the mid 80s on Tuesday and in the
upper 80s to near 90F for next Wednesday.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Through 12Z Friday...Closed/weakening 500mb low centered across
sern NY at 0530Z will maintain VFR ceilings and areas of light
rain across the North Country TAF sites this morning. Vsby will
generally remain 6SM or higher, though brief MVFR conditions
can`t be ruled out. With daytime heating, scattered convective
showers will develop during the afternoon hours with just a
slight chance of thunder. Generally handled afternoon shower and
isold tstm threat with PROB30 groups. As low shifts to the
east, winds will generally go from light and variable to N/NE at
5-8kts for the balance of the daylight hours. Better potential
for partial clearing Thursday night may lead to isold FG/BR
potential 06-12Z Friday, especially at EFK/MPV/SLK.
Outlook...
Friday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Friday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Saturday: VFR. Chance SHRA.
Saturday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA.
Sunday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Definite SHRA,
Chance TSRA.
Sunday Night: Mainly MVFR, with areas IFR possible. Chance SHRA,
Slight chance TSRA.
Monday: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Slight chance SHRA.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.
&&
$$
WHAT HAS CHANGED...Clay
DISCUSSION...Clay/Banacos
AVIATION...Banacos
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