423
FXUS61 KBTV 080628
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
228 AM EDT Mon Jun 8 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
As of 225 AM EDT Monday...

The timing of precipitation on Wednesday has sped up.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
As of 225 AM EDT Monday...

1. Seasonable conditions with nighttime fog early this morning
and tonight.

2. Hotter weather will begin to build, but incoming
precipitation on Wednesday will bring in the humidity.

3. Warm and humid conditions will continue into the later
portion of the week with chances for showers and thunderstorms.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
As of 225 AM EDT Monday...

KEY MESSAGE 1: After two days of soaking rain, especially north,
widespread fog is being observed as surface high pressure builds
overhead. Despite some breezy winds just off the ground, it has not
stopped the fog from blossoming across the area. Take extra time
commuting, and avoid using high beams. Allow additional space
between yourself and other vehicles as well.

After sunrise (about 5am), fog will quickly dissipate, which should
help keep impacts outside the heaviest commuter traffic. Seasonable
weather conditions are expected today as moderation takes place
underneath beautifully sunny skies. Very dry conditions will place
relative humidity between 25-35 percent during the day, but there
will be little wind to speak of. So we will again radiate out
tonight. We`ll likely observe fog more confined in space and time to
more favored river valleys with pleasant lows in the mid 40s to mid
50s.

KEY MESSAGE 2: The upper ridge axis will shift east on Tuesday, and
this will send temperatures upwards during the afternoon. The NBM
5.0 has been noted to have a modest warm bias, and so the forecast
is keeping conditions in the 80s. Dewpoints will be on the rise as
well, but it won`t be anything too oppressive with lower to mid 50s
during the day.

Otherwise, model timing on Wednesday`s system has trended faster. An
upper trough embedded within the high amplitude ridge pattern that
has defined the last couple weeks will approach northern New York
perhaps as early as Tuesday night. Precipitation will then spread
east into Vermont mid to late morning. This faster arrival will
impact daytime temperatures and will likely keep things in the mid
70s to lower 80s for most. This activity slides east overnight, but
another system with an additional push of deep moisture will move
east. So we may not lose showers completely with sunset as we head
into Thursday. Fortunately, the amount of instability and forcing
appears marginal. However, some embedded downpours in weak mid-level
based instability of 100-200 J/kg are possible. The air mass will
trend towards pea soup territory with precipitable waters climbing
to 1.75-2.00". Thursday will be warmer, but again, pulled back the
NBM 5.0`s warm bias to reflect muggy conditions in the mid 80s to
near 90.

KEY MESSAGE 3: Large scale mid to upper level ridging will breakdown
late this week as a transient upper level low gradually tracks
across southern Canada and the Great Lakes towards Friday. Shower
chances look to increase into Friday afternoon associated with the
upper low. There does appear to be good model consensus among the
ensembles, and even more so amongst the deterministic models, of a
cold frontal passage during the day Friday, though exact timing on
Friday remains uncertain. The region looks to be in the right
entrance region of a jet streak leading into Friday, which with a
frontal passage colocated with peak heating could lead to some
thunderstorm activity. Long range GFS model soundings show good
dynamics present with the system. Limitations to the setup would be
any convective debris that may linger from Thursday should
convection fire in the Great Lakes. Temperatures Friday and into the
weekend will be dependent on any shower activity, with 925mb
temperatures around 20, supporting highs in the mid to upper 80s.
With the approach of the Friday system, moisture will also be
increasing with dewpoints in the low to mid 60s, drying slightly for
the weekend into eh upper 50s. It will be a hot and muggy end to the
week with overnight lows in the low to mid 60s, offering only a
slight reprieve. Models become varied beyond Friday in terms of
precipitation, with the GEFS denoting a hung up cold front, keeping
moisture and shower chances into Saturday, and others like the ECMWF
offering a transient front with drier conditions through the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Through 06Z Tuesday...Satellite this morning shows widespread fog
across the region. Fog will be the main terminal impact for this TAF
package, occurring in the first 6 hours. High confidence in fog at
MSS/SLK with already evident fog both from observations and
satellite. Fog should arrive at BTV/MPV within the 06-07Z timeframe
given satellite trends. Confidence is lower at RUT/EFK for
prevailing fog, though given the fog in the vicinity, some fog is
possible, mainly between 08-11Z. Have utilized Tempo groups for
locations not currently experiencing fog, to see fog development in
the next hour or two, then see prevailing fog through 11Z.
Visibilities within the fog may drop as low as 1/4SM. Fog should
dissipate around 12Z due to an earlier sunrise this time of year.
Lower visibilities may hold on until 13/14Z at MSS as calm flow will
take longer to scour out surface moisture. For the remainder of the
day, calm winds to VRB04kts are expected at all terminals with SKC
skies for majority of the day.

Outlook...

Tuesday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Definite SHRA,
Chance TSRA.
Wednesday Night: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Chance
SHRA, Slight chance TSRA.
Thursday: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Chance SHRA,
Chance TSRA.
Thursday Night: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Slight
chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA.
Friday: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Chance SHRA, Slight
chance TSRA.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$

WHAT HAS CHANGED...Haynes
DISCUSSION...Haynes/Danzig
AVIATION...Danzig