766
FXUS61 KBTV 252250
AFDBTV
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
550 PM EST Wed Feb 25 2026
.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
As of 204 PM EST Wednesday...
Models have trended farther south and drier for the system on
Monday.
&&
.KEY MESSAGES...
As of 204 PM EST Wednesday...
1. Heavy snow showers with possible snow squalls this
afternoon.
2. Brief windy warm up Friday night into Saturday
3. Sharply colder temperatures returning late this weekend and
early next week, then the potential for more precipitation and
milder temperatures towards the middle of next week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
As of 548 PM EST Wednesday...
KEY MESSAGE 1: Updated forecast to reflect current radar
trends. Moderate to heavy snow showers are still possible this
evening, but likelihood of squalls is less likely at this time.
Winds have not reached squall criteria. Previous discussion
follows.
A prefrontal trough moves through this afternoon and evening,
bringing some convective snow showers. Recent CAM runs have
brought down the instability and organization of the snow
showers this afternoon, so the chance of any specific area
seeing a squall has decreased, but the threat is still there.
Regardless, scattered heavy convective snow showers are still
expected. The timing still looks to be mid afternoon for much of
northern New York, early evening for the Champlain Valley and
mid to late evening for the rest of Vermont. While there should
be a more organized broken line moving through during the
aforementioned timeline, a few snow showers will continue to be
possible for a few hours after, though they will likely be
lighter and more widely scattered. Overall, in terms of
ingredients, the threat is definitely on the lower end. CAPE
looks to max out over around 50 J, the frontogenesis should be
relatively weak and there is not a significant wind shift or
organized boundary.
KEY MESSAGE 2: A strong clipper passes by well to the north
Friday night into Saturday, causing significant warm air
advection. Its pressure looks to drop close to 980 mb, causing a
southerly low level jet to pass overhead. Gusty channeled flow
in the Champlain Valley and downsloping winds across the
northern Adirondacks are likely. Temperatures should rise into
the 40s for most places, with a run at 50 possible for parts of
southern Vermont. The amount of warming looks to depend on the
timing and make up of the cold frontal passage on the backside.
An earlier passage would prevent the full effects of diurnal
heating and some rain/snow showers with a prefrontal trough
would cut back on temperatures, especially for northern areas.
Dew points will be low regardless, so melting would be limited
and any precipitation would cause notable wet-bulbing.
KEY MESSAGE 3: A cold front looks to push across the region
Saturday night into Sunday, followed by surface high pressure
centered over the Great Lakes/Canada, bringing some sharply
colder temperatures and scattered snow showers Sunday morning.
Highs for northern New York and Vermont on Sunday and Monday
will be in the mid teens and 20s to start off meteorological
spring. Lows over the weekend and early week will be as low as
-15 to 5 F. This will be 15-20 degrees below seasonal normals
(in both highs and lows) for early March. Probability of
precipitation increases again in southern portions of the
forecast area on Monday as a storm system cross the mid-
Atlantic, but deterministic models are spread on how far north
this system can get considering we`ll likely have the Canadian
high pressure pressing in from the north. Currently looking like
the GFS is out of sync with the ECMWF and Canadian in bringing
precipitation to our area. Temperatures look to trend towards
seasonal averages into the midweek as another system approaches
the region during the Tuesday-Wednesday time frame. Once again,
the global models all agree there`s something there, but don`t
quite agree on the timing/placement of precipitation. ECMWF is
fastest with this wave with Canadian and GFS lagging behind. The
timing of the system will also affect the timing and strength
of potential milder air, so more details to come as we see more
model consensus.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Through 18Z Thursday...Scattered snow showers and possible
embedded snow squalls will continue across northern New York and
advance through Vermont this afternoon and evening. As of 18Z,
snow showers have begun across northern New York where sites are
seeing visibilities 4-7 miles. These snow showers are expected
to continue and move eastward to all other sites by around
22Z-23Z Wednesday. These snow showers are also beginning to get
heavier this afternoon, and they could produce vis 1-3 miles or
less briefly for periods of time. KSLK is the most likely to
have a sustained period of IFR vis through about 00Z Thursday.
Probability of IFR vis drops significantly for all sites beyond
06Z Thursday, but lighter snow showers may linger on and off
over the next 24 hours. Most sites are reporting ceilings around
1300-2700 feet above ground level outside of the Champlain
Valley this afternoon, where ceilings remain 3800-4800+ feet.
The Champlain Valley sites may briefly join in the MVFR ceilings
around 02Z-04Z Thursday behind a line of snow showers, but
there is also the likely scenario that they remain VFR cigs for
the next 24 hours. Widespread VFR ceilings are anticipated to
arrive around 04Z-05Z Thursday, potentially earlier at KMSS.
Winds are currently gusting 15-25 knots out of the south and
southeast at many sites, and this should continue until around
after the line of snow showers moves through. Even then, some
sites may continue to see breezy weather for the next 24 hours.
Outlook...
Thursday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Friday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Friday Night: VFR. Windy with gusts to 30 kt. NO SIG WX.
Saturday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. NO SIG WX.
Saturday Night: VFR. Chance SN.
Sunday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SN.
Sunday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Monday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
&&
.EQUIPMENT...
The KMPV ASOS has suffered a communications failure. The issue
has been diagnosed, but there is currently no estimated time of
return to service. This communications line is not serviced by
the NWS. Terminal Aerodrome Forecasts will continue, but
amendments to those forecasts will be suspended.
NOAA Weather Radio station WXM-44, transmitting from Mt.
Ascutney, Vermont, on frequency 162.475 MHz is non- operational
at this time. NWS technicians have diagnosed the problem, but
repairs will likely not be able to occur for quite some time due
to circumstances beyond our control. Therefore, the time of
return to service is currently unknown. The following NOAA
Weather Radio transmitters may be able to provide service during
this outage: WWG 50 from Burke Mtn, VT at 162.425 MHz and WNG
546 from Hanover, NH at 162.525 MHz.
The Colchester Reef meteorological station is out of service.
This site is not serviced by the NWS and there isn`t an
estimated return to service at present. Please contact us if you
observe winds significantly deviating from the recreational
forecast.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.
&&
$$
WHAT HAS CHANGED...Myskowski
DISCUSSION...Myskowski/Storm
AVIATION...Storm
EQUIPMENT...NWS BTV
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