980
FXUS61 KBTV 031848
AFDBTV
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
248 PM EDT Fri Jul 3 2026
.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
As of 247 PM EDT Friday...
No significant changes were made to the forecast.
&&
.KEY MESSAGES...
As of 247 PM EDT Friday...
1. Today will be the last day of this heat wave with dangerous
conditions continuing through the afternoon into the evening.
2. More thunderstorms are expected today and tomorrow with a
few stronger storms possible again this afternoon.
3. Warm weather will linger into next week, along with daily
chances of showers and thunderstorms.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
As of 247 PM EDT Friday...
KEY MESSAGE 1: Today will mark our third consecutive and final day of
our heat wave with widespread heat index values in excess of 90,
with near 100F in the Champlain Valley and eastern Windsor County in
Vermont. While temperatures today will be a degree or two lower than
yesterday, in addition to lower dewpoints into the 60s, today`s heat
conditions will still be oppressive as heat impacts tend to be
cumulative. With past overnight lows remaining warm, heat stress
compounds on itself over days of prolonged heat. As such, we have
continued the Extreme Heat Warning and Heat Advisories until 7 PM
tonight. By this evening a cold front will track south from Canada
leading to a relative reprieve from the heat into Independence Day.
Highs will lower into the low to mid 80s, with increasingly dry air
filtering in as well. Dewpoints throughout the day tomorrow will
decrease behind the front falling into the low to mid 50s by
tomorrow evening. Winds with the passage of the front will not be
overly strong with only a light breeze overnight. Sunday will feel
much more refreshing even with temperatures running a couple degrees
warmer than average in the low/mid 80s.
In addition to falling temperatures and dewpoints, the passage of
the cold front will bring some smoke south from Canada due to
wildfires in both the Intermountain West and western Quebec.
Reduced air quality is expected tomorrow for most of Vermont,
beginning in the morning across northern Vermont, and by the
early afternoon in southern Vermont.
KEY MESSAGE 2: Continued chances for showers and thunderstorms will
exist this afternoon, though coverage and intensity will be less
than previous days. SPC mesoanalysis denotes the axis of greatest
instability is shifted to our southwest along the Lake Ontario lake
breeze and southwest towards Rutland and Windham Counties in
Vermont. Current GOES-19 satellite denotes an area of mid to upper
clouds traversing the Ontario Peninsula in addition to bubbling
cumulus towers along the western and northern Lake Ontario lake
breeze. CAMs denote this activity associated with a weak shortwave
drifting in the St. Lawrence Valley and tracking to the southeast
before weakening over the Adirondacks. The timing of these showers
and embedded thunderstorms will be between 5-9 PM. Given CAPE
gradient is nudged south of our areas, the environment today does
not look quite as favorable for severe activity. Most thunderstorms
today will be more garden variety with some frequent lightning.
Though a stronger thunderstorm with localized gusty winds may be
possible. SPC continues to show a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 5) for
stronger storms southwest of a line from Ogdensburg, NY to Rutland,
VT. A few terrain driven showers and an isolated rumble of thunder
is also possible across northern and central Vermont generally
between 6-9 PM, though shower chances drop off quickly after 9 PM,
as these showers will be tied to daytime heating.
Overnight tonight, a cold front will pass from north to south with a
chance for showers and a morning rumble of thunder, primarily south
of I-89, as it interacts with better CAPE profiles in southern
Vermont. Showers will be isolated to scattered, and chances for
severe weather are low to nil. The front will slow as it approaches
southern Vermont with showers potentially lingering towards the late
morning which may impact morning outdoor activities associated with
Independence Day. Winds will not be overly strong with the front
given the weaker thermal/pressure gradients, but some gusts to 20
mph will be possible along Lake Champlain and up to 30 mph for
ridges. Drier air will advect southward with cooling temperatures
aloft tomorrow afternoon. Models denote a few weak shortwaves
behind the front tomorrow afternoon which could lead to an isolated
shower areawide, though better chances will be located over the
higher terrain. Any shower activity should taper off by mid to late
tomorrow afternoon, just in time for dry and more comfortable
conditions for afternoon and evening outdoor activities. Sunday will
remain dry behind the front with transient high pressure overhead.
By Monday, southwest flow is favored to return while diffluence
increases aloft. A few showers and thunderstorms will be possible as
instability increases from southwest to northeast through the day.
so
KEY MESSAGE 3: Heading into next week, warm weather will linger,
although temperatures and heat indices will not be as warm as
currently. At this time, high temperatures are most likely to range
in the 80s and lower 90s with chances for showers and thunderstorms
each afternoon through midweek. Overnight lows remain on the warmer
side, generally in the 60s, which may lead to accumulating heat
impacts. The first part of the week won`t be too hot though.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Through 18Z Saturday...VFR conditions currently prevail across
all terminals, and are expected to persist through most of the
forecast period. Winds will increase out of west/northwest this
afternoon, with gusts between 15 and 25 knots. Additional shower
and thunderstorm chances this afternoon, but there is low
confidence in areal coverage and extent of any possible showers.
Potential for MVFR CIGs return overnight as a few showers
remain possible for EFK/MPV/SLK. Should showers be persistent on
these terminals, then a period of IFR cannot be ruled
completely out either.
Outlook...
Saturday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Sunday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Sunday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Monday: VFR. Chance SHRA.
Monday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA.
Tuesday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
Tuesday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
Wednesday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA.
&&
.CLIMATE...
Extreme heat and humidity will continue today, which could lead
to some daily records being tied or eclipsed. Below are the
current daily high and low temperature records in jeopardy at
our area climate sites.
Record High Temperatures:
July 3:
KMPV: 91/2002
Record High Minimum Temperatures:
July 4:
KPBG: 71/1973
KSLK: 67/1952
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...Heat Advisory until 7 PM EDT this evening for VTZ003-004-
006>008-010-016>020.
Extreme Heat Warning until 7 PM EDT this evening for VTZ001-
002-005-009-011-021.
NY...Heat Advisory until 7 PM EDT this evening for NYZ026-027-
029>031-034-087.
Extreme Heat Warning until 7 PM EDT this evening for NYZ028-
035.
&&
$$
WHAT HAS CHANGED...Danzig
DISCUSSION...Danzig/Neiles
AVIATION...Neiles
CLIMATE...Danzig/NWS BTV
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