313
FXUS61 KBTV 121842
AFDBTV
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
142 PM EST Thu Feb 12 2026
.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
As of 139 PM EST Thursday...
No significant changes have been made to the forecast.
&&
.KEY MESSAGES...
As of 139 PM EST Thursday...
1. Snow showers continue to dwindle across the region, with
drier conditions expected tonight and tomorrow.
2. A weak disturbance will bring additional snow showers to the
region Friday night into Saturday.
3. Modest warming trend expected early next week with more
uncertainty thereafter. Periods of snow and/or rain are possible.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
As of 139 PM EST Thursday...
KEY MESSAGE 1: It`s shaping up to be a pleasant February afternoon as
with seasonably cool temperatures and blue skies trying to make an
appearance as moisture continues to wane across the region.
Lingering mountain snow showers will continue to taper off this
afternoon due to the lack of moisture, with dry weather expected
tonight into the day tomorrow.
KEY MESSAGE 2: A weak clipper system will bring some additional snow
showers to the region Friday night into Saturday. This feature looks
to fall apart as it moves through the region, with weak forcing and
limited moisture allowing for rather lackluster snowfall amounts and
little to no impacts. The current forecast shows only a dusting to a
few tenths of an inch for most locations, with a few inches possible
across the higher terrain. These snow showers should taper off
throughout the day Saturday, with high pressure building in for the
later half of the weekend.
KEY MESSAGE 3: The main story for next week will be the warming trend
through Tuesday and perhaps Wednesday. Daytime highs in the upper
30s to low/mid 40s look fairly likely, with lows mainly in the mid
20s. We`ll have one upper shortwave swing across the region Sunday
night into Monday. It`s fairly weak and moisture-starved but it
could produce some showers as it moves through, likely snow but
perhaps mixing with and/or changing to rain if the precipitation
persists into Monday afternoon. Things become more complicated
thereafter as a complex frontal system has the potential to bring
rain, freezing rain, and snow to the region. There are a lot of
differences in both deterministic and ensemble solutions with this
system, as a frontal boundary looks to be draped somewhere near or
over our forecast area, separating cold air spreading southward from
Canada and warm air lifting northward toward the international
border. The question is where this all sets up. Stay tuned to later
forecasts as hopefully trends will become more clear as we approach
next week.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Through 18Z Friday...VFR/MVFR to dominate through the entire TAF
period. Snow has mostly ended across the region early this
afternoon, with just occasional flurries possible. No visibility
restrictions expected. KMSS/KPBG/KMSS should remain VFR with just
FEW-SCT clouds AOA 3000 ft. Meanwhile, KEFK/KSLK/KMPV/KRUT will
remain MVFR with ceilings 1200-2800 ft. While KRUT/KMPV are expected
to eventually improve to VFR by 00z or shortly thereafter,
indications are that moisture will become trapped at low levels due
to an inversion layer, keeping ceilings MVFR through much of the
overnight period. KSLK could even see occasional IFR conditions,
though confidence in this is not enough to include in the TAF at
this time. Regardless, ceilings will lift to VFR at all terminals
except KSLK by 13z Tuesday morning. N/NW winds 5-10 kt with
localized gusts to 20 kt this afternoon will become light and
variable with sunset and remain so through the remainder of the TAF
period.
Outlook...
Friday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight chance
SN.
Saturday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. NO SIG WX.
Saturday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Sunday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Sunday Night: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Slight chance
SHSN.
Washingtons Birthday: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible.
Slight chance SHSN.
Monday Night: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. NO SIG WX.
&&
.CLIMATE...
As of 139 PM EST Thursday...
In Burlington, the last day with a temperature breaking 32
degrees was January 22nd. The next time we are forecasting
temperatures rising above 32 in Burlington is this Saturday,
February 14th. If that forecast holds, that would be 22 days in
a row below freezing. Sub-freezing temperature streaks this
long are fairly unusual in the Burlington area, last happening
January-February 2015.
&&
.EQUIPMENT...
NOAA Weather Radio station WXM-44, transmitting from Mt.
Ascutney, Vermont, on frequency 162.475 MHz is non- operational
at this time. NWS technicians have diagnosed the problem, but
repairs will likely not be able to occur for quite some time due
to circumstances beyond our control. Therefore, the time of
return to service is currently unknown. The following NOAA
Weather Radio transmitters may be able to provide service during
this outage: WWG 50 from Burke Mtn, VT at 162.425 MHz and WNG
546 from Hanover, NH at 162.525 MHz.
The Colchester Reef meteorological station is out of service.
This site is not serviced by the NWS and there isn`t an
estimated return to service at present. Please contact us if you
observe winds significantly deviating from the recreational
forecast.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.
&&
$$
WHAT HAS CHANGED...Kremer
DISCUSSION...Hastings/Kremer
AVIATION...Hastings
CLIMATE...NWS BTV
EQUIPMENT...NWS BTV
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