310
FXUS61 KBTV 290633
AFDBTV
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
133 AM EST Sat Nov 29 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
Lingering snow showers will continue to taper off through the
morning as high pressure builds into the region, bring cold and
drier weather for today. A low pressure system will arrive Sunday,
bringing some light snow accumulations to much of the area, with a
transition to rain expected within the valleys. An active wintry
weather pattern will continue behind it to kick off December, with
another system expected to impact the region Tuesday night into
Wednesday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 132 AM EST Saturday...A cool and relatively dry day is expected
across the region today as as high pressure briefly builds over the
region, bringing a short break in the active weather pattern.
Lingering showers across the region will continue to taper off
through the morning, with dry conditions prevailing for the majority
of the day. Skies should gradually clear through the day, with most
locations having a chance of seeing blue skies, albeit brief as high
clouds associated with the low pressure system will begin to stream
into the region late today. Daytime highs will be on the cool side
today, with temperatures only in the upper 20s to mid 30s.
The next system will quickly arrive early Sunday morning, with the
low tracking out of the Great Lakes up the St. Lawrence Valley,
bringing another round of widespread precipitation. Precipitation
looks to start as snow across the region, but warm southerly flow
will allow for temperatures to warm enough in the broader valleys
that any snowfall should quickly transition to rain, while the
mountains should remain snow throughout the event. Snowfall amounts
will be light, with a few inches expected in the higher terrain. In
addition to the precipitation, winds will be on the breezy side
Sunday with a low level jet overhead, with gusts of 25 to 40
mph possible, especially in the Champlain Valley due to
channeling. Temperatures during the day Sunday will generally in
the 30s to low 40s, with overnight lows dropping into the teens
and 20s as the system pulls away from the region.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY/...
As of 132 AM EST Saturday...Cool and quiet weather is expected during
the day Monday as another brief period of high pressure builds into
the region in between systems. High temperatures on Monday look to
only climb into the 20s to low 30s, with most locations struggling
to get above freezing. Dry weather and lighter winds are expected
throughout the day, with a few chances for some blue skies in the
afternoon.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 139 PM EST Friday...Still watching for the potential for an
accumulating snowfall late Tues into Weds, followed by arctic
boundary with snow showers late Weds into Thurs. The long term
starts out quiet and dry with 1031mb sfc high pres over the NEK at
00z Tues. This wl allow temps to fall quickly on Monday night with
some colder locations approaching 0F by midnight, before clouds and
winds increase ahead of our next system and temps warm toward
morning. Highs Monday range from the upper teens to upper 20s, with
lows in the single digits to mid teens on Monday night.
Mid/upper lvl full latitude trof sharpens on Tuesday as potent s/w
energy dives acrs the MS River Valley and makes the turn toward the
central Appalachian Mtns, while weak 1008mb low pres develops over
the northern Gulf. Position of cold sfc high pres over northern New
England, wl help to enhance llvl CAD along the eastern side of the
Appalachian Mtns, which should strengthen thermal gradient and aid
in sfc low pres development near Delmarva by 18z Tues. The
challenging part of the fcst still remains the exact track of sfc
low pres late Tues into Weds, with still a large spread btwn
operational runs and latest ensemble data. The mid/upper lvl pattern
remains very progressive and rather flat, which would suggest a
faster/flatter area of sfc low pres. This general idea is supported
by many of the GFS ensemble members, along with the latest runs of
the ECMWF/GEM and UKMET, while GFS/ICON are stronger with potential
greater impacts acrs our cwa. For now have continued with low likely
pops btwn 18z Tues and 06z Weds, with highest potential acrs our
central/eastern and southern cwa, while less near the International
Border.
The 13Z NBM in DESI (Dynamic Ensemble-based Scenarios for IDSS)
indicates 30 to 40% probability of 24 hour snowfall >4" acrs our
central/southern cwa, while < 15% near the International Border. The
NBM probability of reaching winter storm warning criteria of 7" is
20 to 30% over Rutland/Windsor Counties and <5% near the border,
indicating advisory level type event is possible acrs our
central/southern cwa for Tues/Weds time frame attm. The probability
of max temp staying below 32F during the event is >90% acrs our
entire cwa, supporting high confidence of an all snow event. As
always any shift north or south would have some impacts on northern
extent of snow shield, but for now it looks like mostly a southern
New England/Mid Atlantic State event with our cwa on the northern
edge. Highs mostly in the 20s to near 30F both Tues and Weds with
lows holding steady in the upper teens to mid 20s.
Signals in the large scale synoptic pattern are increasing for an
arctic boundary and associates snow showers/snow squalls late Weds
into Thurs. The progged sfc analysis indicates a sharp convergence
with tight isotherms/thickness packing on backside associated
moderate to strong llvl caa. This boundary interacting with potent
northern stream energy and instability would support the idea of
snow showers and embedded snow squalls associated with the boundary.
Timing of frontal passage and magnitude trof development wl
determine how robust activity can become. Otherwise, much below
normal temps are likely for Thurs into Friday as progged 850mb temps
are near or below -20C.
&&
.AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Through 00Z Sunday...Scattered convective snow showers in gusty
WNW low-level flow will gradually decrease in intensity and
coverage overnight. Looking for MVFR to occasional IFR
conditions in snow shower activity at SLK/EFK. Other TAF
locations mainly VFR with brief MVFR in passing -SHSN during the
first half of the overnight. Cloud cover diminishes during the
daylight hrs Saturday with all sites returning VFR. Low clouds
lingering in the mtns may delay SLK returning to VFR conditions
until 16Z or so. Gradient flow remains moderately strong and
with steep low- level lapse rates, WNW winds generally 12-18kts
overnight and Saturday morning with gusts 24-28kts. Winds settle
Saturday afternoon as high pressure builds in from the Upper
Ohio Valley.
Outlook...
Saturday Night: VFR. Chance SN.
Sunday: Mainly MVFR and IFR, with areas VFR possible. Windy with
gusts to 30 kt. Definite SN, Definite SHRA, Definite SHSN.
Sunday Night: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. Chance SHRA,
Chance SHSN.
Monday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight chance SHSN.
Monday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance SN.
Tuesday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance SN.
Wednesday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
&&
.MARINE...
A Lake Wind Advisory remains in effect this evening and into
Saturday morning. Looking for W to WNW winds to remain elevated
through Saturday morning due to steep lapse rates over Lake
Champlain and moderately strong gradient flow. Sustained winds
will generally be in the 15 to 30 KT range and peak gusts will
be to around 35 KTs during the pre-dawn hours Saturday. Waves
will likely remain about 2 to 4 feet, before decreasing toward
the mid-day hours Saturday.
&&
.EQUIPMENT...
NOAA Weather Radio station WXM-44, transmitting from Mt.
Ascutney, Vermont, on frequency 162.475 MHz is non-operational
at this time. NWS technicians have diagnosed the problem, but
repairs will likely not be able to occur for quite some time due
to circumstances beyond our control. Therefore, the time of
return to service is currently unknown. The following NOAA
Weather Radio transmitters may be able to provide service during
this outage: WWG 50 from Burke Mtn, VT at 162.425 MHz and WNG
546 from Hanover, NH at 162.525 MHz.
Equipment malfunctions at the Colchester Reef meteorological
station will likely leave it inoperable for an extended period
of time. This site is not serviced by the NWS. Technicians do
not currently have an estimated return to service for this
station. Use extra caution when navigating the broad waters of
Lake Champlain, and please contact us if you observe winds
significantly deviating from the forecast.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Kremer
NEAR TERM...Kremer
SHORT TERM...Kremer
LONG TERM...Taber
AVIATION...Banacos
MARINE...Team BTV
EQUIPMENT...Team BTV
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