695
FXUS61 KBTV 140639
AFDBTV
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
239 AM EDT Sat Mar 14 2026
.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
As of 233 AM EDT Saturday...
No significant changes were made to the current forecast.
Confidence has increased for possible Wind Advisory level wind
gusts Sunday night into Monday across the Champlain Valley and
northern slopes of the Adirondacks.
&&
.KEY MESSAGES...
As of 233 AM EDT Saturday...
1. Lingering elevation dependent snowfall will continue into
this afternoon with areas of slick travel possible, along with a
period of gusty winds this afternoon.
2. A strong system with multiple weather hazards is expected
Sunday night through Monday night.
3. Seasonable weather expected for the next midweek to late
week period, with a few chances for showers.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
As of 233 AM EDT Saturday...
KEY MESSAGE 1: A Winter Weather Advisory continues until 2 PM this
afternoon for the Adirondacks in northern New York, as well as for
the southern Greens. Additional snowfall between 1 to 3 inches is
expected, mainly across the Adirondacks. Dry air has largely limited
higher snowfall rates and amounts, based on observations and current
radar presentations. The surface low currently over eastern Ontario
will slide east this morning with an associated mid level dry slot,
which is currently developing over the CPV. Radar also depicts the
development of a secondary area of more moderate snow showers across
the southern Adirondacks and northern Catskill Mountains in New York
which is associated with an area of enhanced 850mb to 700mb
frontogenesis along a cold front. These showers show some convective
character with modest instability present. Model guidance depicts
these locally enhanced showers becoming more scattered to isolated
into the pre-dawn hours, but could still lead to some locally slick
travel conditions this morning across central and southern Vermont.
Into northern New York, continued moderately strong 850mb waa lift
is leading to continued light to moderate snow showers with periodic
reduced visibilities to 3/4 miles. These showers will continue into
the late morning, but become more confined to the western facing
slopes as 925-850mb winds shift to the west and become more
favorable for upslope snow showers. Snow will be highly elevation
dependent, mainly above 1500ft as surface temperatures in the
valleys warm into the mid to upper 30s today. Snow impacts will be
minimal as the March sun angle should be able to melt away any snow
on road surfaces.
As the clipper moves overhead into this evening, coupled with
daytime instability development, surface CAPE will increase to the
40 to 120 J/kg range, with the snow squall parameter in the 2 to 5
range across central/northern Vermont, including the Northeast
Kingdom. Expecting a redevelopment of snow showers this afternoon
across northeastern Vermont with the potential for a few embedded
heavier snow squalls mainly between 2 PM and 6 PM. A quick dusting
to locally an inch will be possible, especially under any stronger
core heavy snow showers.
In addition to the redevelopment of snow showers this afternoon, as
winds become more westerly this afternoon, a west/northwest 850mb
LLJ of 40 to 45 knots will move across the area, promoting deep
mixing profiles with modest caa. This will support localized gusts
of 35 to 40 MPH across the northern and eastern Adirondacks, as well
as the eastern Greens, primarily near western Windsor, and the
Northeast Kingdom into this evening.
Sunday is mainly quiet with near normal temps and maybe a few
lingering mtn flurries. Winds and moisture increase on Sunday
afternoon ahead of our next powerful storm system for early next
week as a warm front lifts north. A quick dusting of snow with a
quick transition from light snow to rain showers will be associated
with the warm front, as temperatures become non-diurnal into Sunday
night. Locations like Massena may hold on to the cold air longer
with northeast flow, keeping snow lingering, with perhaps some
short-lived freezing rain on the back edge of the warm front.
KEY MESSAGE 2: A high amplitude pattern will unfold on Monday as the
contrast of departing 1035mb surface high pressure and incoming sub
990mb low will produce a variety of different weather hazards. We`ll
start in order of the most significant impacts with highest
confidence down towards the lower impact or lower confidence details.
Strong south wind gusts (Sunday night - Tuesday): Several of our
significant wind events often come from a surface high stronger than
1030mb off the Canadian maritimes and incoming surface low pressure
towards the Great Lakes deeper than 990mb. Apropos of that,
tightening pressure gradients will result in a region of fast
southerly flow. Low range estimates for the 850mb LLJ range between
55-65 knots, and the upper bounds range between 75-85 knots. Several
rounds of precipitation will be possible throughout the day, which
may inhibit mixing at times. However, terrain shadowing will limit
stabilizing precipitation across northern slopes of the Adirondacks
and northern Champlain Valley, while adiabatic warming from
southeasterly downsloping may enhance mixing potential.
Probabilistic values from the NBM for exceeding Wind Advisory
thresholds (synoptic gusts > 46 mph) are already between 30-70%
downslope regions like Malone, and channeled flow for areas
like the Burlington Airport, and this does not yet include
various high resolution guidance. Between probabilistic data and
pattern recognition, confidence is already moderate-high, and
the main piece of uncertainty will be to ascertain peak
intensities, especially along and ahead of the incoming front.
Although not quite as intense, synoptic winds behind the front
will be fairly strong as well. West-southwest to west flow will
remain about 35-45 knots with better mixing behind the front. So
35-45 mph wind gusts, especially along northeast facing aspects
will be possible as we continue into Tuesday.
Frontal boundary/Hydro (Monday evening - Monday night): The Monday
evening and Monday night frontal boundary will be quite potent. The
thermal gradient is impressive, but the exact timing of this main
line will mostly be after dark, and most of the instability will be
elevated. There may be some embedded rumbles and moderate to locally
heavy rain, but with decreasing warm cloud depths, precipitation
efficiency may not quite be all that. Early precipitation estimates
are about 0.50-1.00", and expect this to become refined with more
terrain features as we enter the range of high resolution models.
Incoming cold air behind the system will likely even result in some
transition to snow on the backside. So we`ll be adding some water to
the system, but having lost so much water in the snowpack and having
flushed out much of our river ice, most ensemble river forecasts
bring common trouble spots like Otter Creek up to bankfull. We may
still have to monitor lingering ice in eastern Vermont, but the main
impact to the frontal boundary may be the potential for black ice
and/or changeover to snow causing slippery travel. Additionally,
there may be some strong gusts immediately behind the front from
isallobaric winds while low pressure continues to intensify as it
passes north Monday night.
Freezing rain/drizzle (Monday Morning): A plume of Atlantic moisture
is still expected early Monday morning. Southeasterly flow will bank
up along in Essex County, New York along eastern slopes of the
Adirondacks, and in south-central Vermont. Shallow moisture from the
warm, maritime air mass will overrun cool air nestled in our typical
cold hollows. An expanding area of drizzle or shallow rain showers
will drive the potential for some light ice accumulations before
temperatures begin to quickly increase Monday afternoon. A light
glaze to a few hundredths will be possible for areas south east of
Mt. Marcy or Vanderwhacker Mountain, and in the Upper Valley up
through the Passumpsic.
KEY MESSAGE 3: After a cold Tuesday and Wednesday, temperatures will
moderate with 3-5 degrees of seasonal norms. There are several
systems that will pass through the region as large scale troughing
settles east of the Mississippi. Most of these systems will not
contain much moisture. It seems the total number of trough passages
through the weekend is about 3. So PoPs range between 20-50%
intermittently. Model spread begins to really increase towards the
weekend.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Through 06Z Sunday...Surface low pressure continues to track east
with pockets of light snow reducing visibilities anywhere between
1-5SM. Ceilings are also variable, with the lowest ceilings at KMSS,
where the surface low is currently tracking. As low pressure shifts
east, winds will become west to northwest and snow showers will
become increasingly orographic during the day, which will likely
result in lingering IFR at KSLK and KEFK. Remaining terminals will
mainly be MVFR with ceilings about 1500-3000 ft agl. As winds trend
northwesterly between 12z-16z, speeds will increase to 8-13 knots
sustained with gusts 16-25 knots. After 00z, snow showers will begin
to decrease and winds will start subsiding. Gradually improving
aviation conditions will follow.
Outlook...
Sunday: VFR. Chance SHRA, Chance SHSN.
Sunday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Strong winds
with gusts to 40 kt. Chance RA, Slight chance FZRA.
Monday: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Windy with gusts to
35 kt. Definite RA.
Monday Night: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Windy with
gusts to 30 kt. Definite SHRA.
Tuesday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Windy with gusts
to 30 kt. Slight chance SHSN.
Tuesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
&&
.EQUIPMENT...
The Colchester Reef meteorological station is out of service.
This site is not serviced by the NWS and there isn`t an
estimated return to service at present. Please contact us if you
observe winds significantly deviating from the recreational
forecast.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...Winter Weather Advisory until 2 PM EDT this afternoon for
VTZ019-020.
NY...Winter Weather Advisory until 2 PM EDT this afternoon for
NYZ029-030-034.
&&
$$
WHAT HAS CHANGED...Danzig
DISCUSSION...Haynes/Danzig
AVIATION...Haynes
EQUIPMENT...NWS BTV
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