519
FXUS61 KBTV 072351
AFDBTV
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
651 PM EST Sun Dec 7 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
A weak clipper will produce widespread, light snowfall today
into tonight. A coating to a few inches of snow is expected,
along with chilly conditions to begin the work week. Very cold
conditions are expected Monday and Monday night before south
winds pick up Tuesday ahead of another weather system.
Additional chances for snow will continue as unsettled, but
relatively low impact, weather will be this week`s theme.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
As of 1259 PM EST Sunday...Radar shows light snow overspreading
northern New York as a warm front stagnates overhead. The
breakdown has temperatures near freezing south and in the teens
across the international border. This activity will quickly
translate east as weak 1013mb low will track across the region.
Forcing will primarily come from the thermal gradient and
increased convergence near the surface low tracking through
about now and into the overnight hours. HREF guidance supports
snowfall rates of 0.25-0.50"/hr, and with about a 6-9 hour span
of precipitation, that gets you about 1-4". There could be some
locally higher totals in remote corners of the Adirondacks,
where convective elements are possible as 850-700mb lapse rates
increase towards 8 C/km near the center of the surface low
around 7 PM or so. Most instability will be south of the region,
but parts of the Dacks could be grazed by some higher rates, as
a result.
Cool and breezy conditions settle in overnight. Despite the
weakness of the surface low, a 1030mb high will quickly aim to
take its place, resulting in modest pressure gradients. With 10
mph winds and gusts to 20 while temperatures cool off in the
single digits north will result in wind chills between -5 and
-15 early Monday morning. With fresh snow having fallen
overnight and the cool temperatures, it`ll be prudent to get an
early start and layer up. Additionally, examination of lake
induced CAPE suggests about 600 J/kg available with
unidirectional northwest flow as low-level conditions near the
DGZ and very cold temperatures aloft. FV3-WRF and NAM 3km
indicates some strips in Vermont`s Champlain Valley, and
introduced higher PoPs off Lake Champlain during the pre-dawn
hours Monday. Any lingering snow will exit the Northeast Kingdom
soon after sunrise and winds slacken. The Arctic air mass in
place will likely prevent most from reaching above 20, Monday.
High pressure will be directly overhead Monday night. The
challenge will remain clouds. It continues to appear relatively
scattered in nature. So while not as cold as a few nights ago,
we should be able to partially radiate and see most locations
range near 0 in the broader valleys, and in the single digits
below zero for everyone else.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 1259 PM EST Sunday...The next on our train of systems
will arrive late Tuesday evening. Until then, another cool and
breezy day will be ahead of us. South winds will blow 10-15 mph
with channeled gusts 25 mph up to 30 near Lake Champlain. South
flow will allow us to quickly moderate from the morning chill,
and we`ll climb solidly into the 20s with a few readings near 30
in the St. Lawrence Valley and southern Vermont. Snow will hold
off until evening when better moisture and forcing tied to the
upper trough arrives. Atmospheric flow will be fast aloft, with
850mb winds also around 50 knots. So this system will race east,
and there will be terrain shadowing across the northern St.
Lawrence Valley, Champlain Valley, and Northeast Kingdom,
whereas southern slopes of the Adirondacks and Greens will
benefit from orographic enhancement. Overall trends have been
towards a weaker system, and so mainly a coating of snow is
possible.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 1259 PM EST Sunday...A unsettled period of weather is
expected to continue through the week as several disturbances
pass through the region, bringing many chances for
precipitation. The next system will move out of the Great Lakes
towards the region along the St. Lawrence Valley, bringing
another round of widespread precipitation for Wednesday into
Thursday. Snowfall is expected at the onset of for all
locations, but temperatures during the day Wednesday look to
warm enough for a transition to a rain/snow mix or rain within
the broader valleys, while higher elevations will likely remain
cold enough to remain snow throughout the entire event. For the
later half of the week, a trend towards colder weather is
expected with continued chances for snow showers, especially
across the higher terrain, as the region remains under the
influence of an upper level trough. Temperatures for the later
half of the week will once again below normal, with highs in the
20s to low 30s and overnight lows in the single digits and
teens.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Through 00Z Tuesday...Snowfall moving across the air space is
causing mainly MVFR and IFR conditions in light snow and mist.
Snow will gradually begin to taper off by about 06Z, with MVFR
ceilings lingering through the overnight hours. After 12z some
improvement back to VFR is expected as dry air moves into the
region and cloud cover begins to decrease. Winds will generally
be light throughout the period, becoming more northwesterly as
the night progresses.
Outlook...
Monday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday: VFR. Slight chance SN.
Tuesday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance SN.
Wednesday: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Definite SN,
Definite RA.
Wednesday Night: Mainly MVFR, with areas IFR possible. Definite
SN, Definite RA, Chance SHSN.
Thursday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance SHSN.
Thursday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight
chance SHSN.
Friday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance SHSN.
&&
.EQUIPMENT...
NOAA Weather Radio station WXM-44, transmitting from Mt.
Ascutney, Vermont, on frequency 162.475 MHz is non-operational
at this time. NWS technicians have diagnosed the problem, but
repairs will likely not be able to occur for quite some time due
to circumstances beyond our control. Therefore, the time of
return to service is currently unknown. The following NOAA
Weather Radio transmitters may be able to provide service during
this outage: WWG 50 from Burke Mtn, VT at 162.425 MHz and WNG
546 from Hanover, NH at 162.525 MHz.
Equipment malfunctions at the Colchester Reef meteorological
station will likely leave it inoperable for an extended period
of time. This site is not serviced by the NWS. Technicians do
not currently have an estimated return to service for this
station. Use extra caution when navigating the broad waters of
Lake Champlain, and please contact us if you observe winds
significantly deviating from the forecast.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Haynes
NEAR TERM...Haynes
SHORT TERM...Haynes
LONG TERM...Kremer
AVIATION...Kremer/Neiles
EQUIPMENT...Team BTV
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