668
FXUS61 KBTV 270001
AFDBTV
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
701 PM EST Mon Jan 26 2026
.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
As of 658 PM EST Monday...The Winter Storm Warning has been
cancelled as accumulating snow come to an end across the area.
&&
.KEY MESSAGES...
As of 120 PM EST Monday...
1. Light to moderate snow will yield up to an additional 3
inches of snow, with storm totals ranging between 7 to 16
inches.
2. Below normal temperatures are expected through this week
with just a few periodic chances for light snow showers, mainly
in the Lake Ontario snowbelts and in the northern mountains. In
particular, Thursday night into Friday morning could be quite
cold with potentially hazardous wind chills especially in
northern New York.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
As of 658 PM EST Monday...
KEY MESSAGE 1: The upper trough is swinging through the region
this afternoon with snowfall rates beginning to decrease. Some
spots in northern New York are seeing some breaks in clouds.
However, as the what is essentially weak deformation behind the
upper low circulation tracks through, snow chances will
increase briefly again behind a relative dry slot. An
additional dusting to couple inches is possible for northern New
York and up to three inches for portions of Vermont is expected
through this evening. Models are indicating drier air moving in
earlier than 1 AM, so the warning may end up being truncated.
Following snowfall, winds will remain coupled through part of
the night resulting in wind chills -10 to -15 degrees for
northern New York and -15 to -30 for higher elevations overnight
into Tuesday morning.
.KEY MESSAGE 2: Broad cyclonic flow will keep cold air funneling
into the region this week. Ambient temperatures will remain cold
with highs generally around 10 to 15 degrees and lows in the
single digit around zero. Some light lake effect showers are
anticipated for Tuesday with downwind transport to the northern
Greens. Totals associated with this will generally be less than
1" as the band wavers southward by Wednesday.
The coldest temperatures currently look to be Thursday night into
early Friday morning, where overnight low temperatures look to drop
into the single digits to teens below zero. Based on the latest NBM
forecast, apparent temperatures look to be anywhere from -10F to -
20F across the region, with portions of the Adirondacks closer to -
30F or even colder at summit level. Cold Weather headlines may be
needed as we get closer if this trend continues. As far as
precipitation chances go, some light snow showers look possible
throughout the week with some light additional snow accumulations
possible. Some of the latest model guidance suggests the potential
for another coastal system for next weekend, which could potentially
bring another chance for widespread snow, however there is still
plenty of uncertainty regarding the low track and overall evolution
of this system. Be sure to stayed tuned for updates and monitor
trends as we get closer.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Through 00Z Tuesday...Currently light snow continues with a mix
of IFR and MVFR cigs and vis. Generally expect light snow,
before conditions slowly improve toward 03z, especially our
northern NY taf sites (MSS/SLK and PBG). Surface vis generally
in the 1-2SM range, before improving to 3-5SM with lingering
MVFR cigs. Winds are generally northwest at 4 to 8 knots, except
some localized higher gusts possible at BTV thru 04z this
evening. Additional snow shower activity is possible after 12z
Tuesday acrs our northern NY taf sites, which could spread into
VT sites toward 18z with a combination of MVFR/IFR conditions
likely.
&&
.EQUIPMENT...
NOAA Weather Radio station WXM-44, transmitting from Mt.
Ascutney, Vermont, on frequency 162.475 MHz is non-operational
at this time. NWS technicians have diagnosed the problem, but
repairs will likely not be able to occur for quite some time due
to circumstances beyond our control. Therefore, the time of
return to service is currently unknown. The following NOAA
Weather Radio transmitters may be able to provide service during
this outage: WWG 50 from Burke Mtn, VT at 162.425 MHz and WNG
546 from Hanover, NH at 162.525 MHz.
The Colchester Reef meteorological station is out of service.
This site is not serviced by the NWS and there isn`t an
estimated return to service at present. Use extra caution when
navigating the broad waters of Lake Champlain. Please contact us
if you observe winds significantly deviating from the
recreational forecast.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Boyd/Kremer/Neiles
AVIATION...Neiles/Taber
EQUIPMENT...NWS BTV
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