772
FXUS61 KBTV 042327
AFDBTV
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
627 PM EST Wed Mar 4 2026
.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
As of 215 PM EST Wednesday...
A Winter Weather Advisory has been issued for portions of
northern New York and the southern Champlain Valley of Vermont.
&&
.KEY MESSAGES...
As of 215 PM EST Wednesday...
1. A wintry mix is expected Thursday night into Friday with
impacts likely to the morning commute.
2. Weekend warmup with showers likely Saturday.
3. The potential for ice jams and hydrological related issues
will need to be monitored early next week due to much above
normal temperatures and significant snow melt.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
As of 215 PM EST Wednesday...
KEY MESSAGE 1: Confidence has increased enough to issue a
Winter Weather Advisory for a period freezing rain and
snow/sleet mix across much of northern New York and portions of
the southern Champlain Valley of Vermont Thursday night into
Friday. Synoptically, not much changed with todays NWP guidance
which features a potent shortwave traversing the central CONUS
along a stalled frontal boundary tonight into Wednesday,
tracking just south of the forecast area Thursday night into
Friday morning. To the north, high pressure builds southward
from Canada with low-level cold air undercutting warmer air
aloft pushing northward from the south. This scenario creates a
mess of weather types with much of Vermont outside of the
southern Champlain Valley seeing a mix of snow and sleet, while
elsewhere freezing rain is likely the more dominant ptype
Thursday night before precipitation tapers off Friday morning
and surface temps slowly rise above freezing. Snow and sleet
accumulations will be minimal in the dusting to 1 inch range,
but ice accumulations could be up to 2 tenths of an inch for
some areas. This ice accretion shoudln`t be enough to create any
widespread power issues, but the Friday morning commute could
be treacherous for some locales.
KEY MESSAGE 2: Low pressure tracking through the Great Lakes
combined with high pressure off the Atlantic seaboard will
produce strong southwesterly warm air and moisture advection
across the Northeast on Saturday with temperatures pushing well
above seasonal normals. Southeasterly flow east of the Green
Mountains will limit heating a bit with upper 40s to around 50
expected, while westward widespread 50s to potential low 60s are
likely. Much of the day looks to be dry until the late
afternoon and evening when a cold front will bring a round of
rain showers and potentially a few rumbles of thunder to the
region through Saturday night.
KEY MESSAGE 3: The forecast for next week continues to indicate
the potential for well above normal temperatures from early to
mid next week. A summer like Bermuda high pressure ridge will
remain anchored to the southeast coast, extending north towards
the International Border. South/southwest flow will result in
temperatures 20-30 degrees above normal for early March, with
850 and 500mb temperatures in the 97- 99th percentiles based on
the NAEFS. Highs will push the upper 50s, with perhaps some
localized low 60s across the southern St. Lawrence Valley,
southern Vermont, and eastern downslope regions of the
Adirondacks and Greens.
There will be several weak boundaries that will travel along
the St. Lawrence Valley and International Border, attempting to
suppress the warm temperatures at times, with the best organized
boundary looking to move through mid week. Better chances for
shower activity next week will be across northern New York on
the western periphery of the thermal ridge. Ensemble PWATs both
in the Euro and GEFS are denote a likely probability exceeding
0.5", with a good amount of members up to 0.75-1". Overall,
current moisture totals doesn`t look overly concerning, however,
there are some signals of some more convective type showers by
mid week, which could become concerning in the coming days.
There is still some uncertainty with how organized these
boundaries will be and how much associated QPF falls with any
shower activity.
Regardless of the above uncertainty, warm temperatures and
dewpoints above freezing will lead to widespread snow melt
across the area. The prolonged warm spell will surge 72hr Mon-
Wed thawing degree hours to 650-900, with some localized areas
pushing 1000 in the southern St. Lawrence Valley, southern
Vermont, and Champlain Valley. These values suggest enough
melting for widespread ice break up, which could lead to or
increase the risk of ice jam related flooding. Current NAEFS and
GEFS snow melt liquid equivalent loss ranges from 2-4".
Combined with the ensemble QPF possibilities, total liquid
additions to rivers varies from 2.5-5" which would support at
least Action to Minor river flood potential. GEFS and NAEFS
still indicate many rivers will experience sharp rises with a
60-80% probability of the Mad River, Ausable River, Otter Creek,
and possible the Winooski River near Essex, reaching at least
Action Stage. There is slightly more confidence that the
Ausable, Otter Creek, and Mad could reach at least Minor Flood
Stage with over a 75% probability in the NAEFS and GEFS.
Typically to reach Moderate or Major flood stage with ice jams,
a significant rain event with convective elements is needed,
which appears unlikely at this point. Given the uncertainty with
the increasing hydrological concerns next week, please pay
close attention to the forecast as we move closer to early to
mid next week.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Through 00Z Friday...VFR conditions are expected to continue
through the next 6 hours. Our region will become sandwiched
between a stationary boundary to the south and the approaching
cold front to the north which will help winds trend towards
calm. This convergence will also lead to moisture becoming
trapped under an inversion with warmer air aloft and the colder
Canadian air sinking under. This trapped moisture could lead to
the development of some low surface fog, particularly in the
wider valleys impacting MSS/BTV/PBG, especially if skies become
clear. The best chances for fog will be closer towards sunrise
as the cold front enters the region. Associated with the cold
front, ceilings will trend towards MVFR 1000-2000ft agl north of
RUT, with perhaps some intermittent MVFR at RUT between
2000-3000ft agl which will increase from the south. The cold
front will wash out as it reaches central Vermont, but winds
will shift to the north by Thursday morning becoming breezy with
winds around 10 knots. Any fog should lift by 14-15Z, with
continued MVFR ceilings towards the end of the TAF period.
Outlook...
Thursday Night: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. Chance SN,
Chance FZRA, Chance PL.
Friday: Mainly MVFR, with local VFR possible. Chance SN, Slight
chance RA, Slight chance FZRA.
Friday Night: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Chance FZRA,
Slight chance RA.
Saturday: Mainly MVFR, with areas IFR possible. Likely RA, Chance
FZRA.
Saturday Night: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. Slight chance RA.
Sunday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. NO SIG WX.
Sunday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Monday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
&&
.EQUIPMENT...
The KBTV ASOS has suffered a communications failure. The issue
has been diagnosed, but there is currently no estimated time of
return to service. The affected communications line is not
serviced by the NWS. Terminal Aerodrome Forecasts will continue,
but regular observations may not be available.
NOAA Weather Radio station WXM-44, transmitting from Mt.
Ascutney, Vermont, on frequency 162.475 MHz is non- operational
at this time. NWS technicians have diagnosed the problem, but
repairs will likely not be able to occur for quite some time due
to circumstances beyond our control. Therefore, the time of
return to service is currently unknown. The following NOAA
Weather Radio transmitters may be able to provide service during
this outage: WWG 50 from Burke Mtn, VT at 162.425 MHz and WNG
546 from Hanover, NH at 162.525 MHz.
The Colchester Reef meteorological station is out of service.
This site is not serviced by the NWS and there isn`t an
estimated return to service at present. Please contact us if you
observe winds significantly deviating from the recreational
forecast.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...Winter Weather Advisory from 7 PM Thursday to 1 PM EST Friday
for VTZ009-011-018-019.
NY...Winter Weather Advisory from 7 PM Thursday to 1 PM EST Friday
for NYZ029-030-034-087.
&&
$$
WHAT HAS CHANGED...Lahiff
DISCUSSION...Lahiff/Danzig
AVIATION...Danzig/Neiles
EQUIPMENT...NWS BTV
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