337
FXUS61 KBTV 091839
AFDBTV
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
239 PM EDT Thu Apr 9 2026
.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
As of 230 PM EDT Thursday...
No significant changes to the current forecast.
&&
.KEY MESSAGES...
As of 230 PM EDT Thursday...
1. Near critical fire weather conditions will continue through
this afternoon/evening before slightly recovering tonight. Dry
conditions will continue for parts of southern Vermont tomorrow
ahead of a frontal system.
2. A frontal passage on Friday continues to favor a wetting
rainfall for most of the area, with seasonable conditions behind
the front for the weekend.
3. Several precipitation chances in the forecast next week with
warm conditions expected.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
As of 230 PM EDT Thursday...
KEY MESSAGE 1: The combination of observed low relative
humidities across the area between 15-25%, with localized gusts
in the Champlain Valley as high as 45 mph and receptive fuels
will keep the Champlain Valley and St. Lawrence Valley in an
elevated fire weather concern through this afternoon and evening
before relative humidities somewhat recover tonight. A Special
Weather Statement remains in effect for the Champlain and St.
Lawrence Valley through 6 PM this evening for near critical fire
weather conditions, in coordination with partners on fuel
conditions.
High pressure will slide slowly eastward, keeping strong
southerly flow and dry conditions across the area this afternoon
into the evening. Steepening lapse rates from good vertical
mixing today have led to localized wind gusts between 40-45 mph
in the Champlain Valley, while elsewhere gusts have only been
25-35 mph. Winds should be peaking at the time of this
discussion, but should begin to decrease as we near sunset.
Beyond sunset, nocturnal cooling will help lower temperatures,
and with some western moisture advection, wind gusts will weaken
to 15-20 mph as a low level jet to 45-55 mph remains overhead
as a frontal boundary approaches the region.
A frontal boundary will approach the region beginning this
afternoon with a weak shortwave passage across the St. Lawrence
Valley. Given how dry the area is any radar returns and
subsequently possible precipitation will likely fall as virga,
but should help moisten air columns lessening any fire weather
concerns tonight into tomorrow. This boundary washes out
overnight somewhere across north-central Vermont in a northeast-
southwest axis. This will allow portions of southern Vermont,
mainly in the Upper Valley of the Connecticut River to see
continued dry conditions into tomorrow. While relative
humidities may increase towards 60-70%, these poor recoveries
will set the stage for low RHs again in southern Vermont. While
not as pronounced as today, relative humidities may approach
35-40% in areas like Springfield, VT late tomorrow morning into
early afternoon before the main cold front slides southeast
tomorrow afternoon. The Champlain Valley tomorrow southward into
Rutland, may see some lower relative humidities again as well
between 35-50%, with lower values across Rutland County, though
dewpoint depressions are not expected to be as large as today,
and winds should be weaker, driven by weaker downsloping and
less vertical mixing. Winds may increase to 15-20 mph in Windsor
County tomorrow afternoon, but fire weather concerns will be
limited.
KEY MESSAGE 2: A cold frontal system will approach the region
Friday afternoon beginning across northern New York and sliding
eastward across the entire region. GOES satellite depicts this
feature developing across the central Plains. The front arrives
by mid morning across northern New York with the passage of a
weak warm front, with the main cold front traversing the area in
the early to mid afternoon in northern New York and by the late
afternoon/evening for Vermont.This system is NOT expected to be
a soaker, but models do show the potential for some beneficial
wetting rainfall between 0.1-0.4" across the region, helping to
alleviate dry fine fuels, and reducing fire weather concerns
into the weekend. High amounts between 0.25-0.4" are expected
near the International Border with some mountain summits
approaching 0.5". Hi-Res CAMs (like the HRRR) denote an area of
enhanced precipitation potential across the southern Champlain
Valley and western Rutland County where better frontal forcing
and an increase low level jet will support some isolated
convective elements. SBCAPE will only be around 150- 200J/kg,
but with the presence of the front, this may be enough to
support isolated convective elements. This system track does
favor potential shadowing in the northern Champlain Valley and
Windsor County where only 0.1-0.2" of rain is expected, less
than surrounding areas.
The front quickly races east with precipitation tapering off
for most by midnight Saturday as colder drier air from the
northwest filters in. Across the Northeast Kingdom early
Saturday morning, northwest flow may keep some low level
moisture around as the mid level dry out, leading to some low-
topped snow showers. Snow accumulations will be minimal if any
with ground temperatures above freezing. Otherwise, Saturday
will be on the chilly side, but mainly sunny side, with
northwest caa and breezy conditions with highs in the low to mid
40s.
KEY MESSAGE 3: Surface high pressure will shift offshore on
Sunday, with an expansive upper level high building over the
Gulf of Mexico. A slow moving upper trough will amble east from
the Rockies, but it will struggle to cause the upper high to
budge. The longwave trough will eventually fade, but it will get
replaced by a new one in time. Under this regime, we will be
running warm within moist air mass as embedded systems eject
northeastwards. Timing individual, smaller scale features will
be challenging in this regime, but higher probabilities are
focused on Sunday night into Monday, and perhaps Tuesday night
into Wednesday. After that, the timing of systems begins to
really diverge. By the middle of next week, temperatures will
range in the upper 60s to mid 70s. Combined with sufficient
moisture, convective instability will be possible. CPC`s outlook
towards the end of the extended indicate probabilities are
leaning above normal into mid April for precipitation and likely
above normal for temperatures.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Through 18Z Friday...VFR conditions are expected for the next
9-12 hours before lowering ceilings arrive. Some virga will be
possible as showers approach the region, but the air below 5000
foot elevation will be very dry. If there`s any chance for a
sprinkle, it would be in the St. Lawrence Valley. By about 06z,
increasing low- level moisture will result in some MVFR ceilings
at KMSS, and perhaps KSLK. After 12z, spotty showers will be
possible at KMSS and KSLK. Initial winds are gusty, mainly 10-20
knots sustained with gusts 18-27 knots, but KBTV has been
especially gusty, occasionally reaching 35-43 knots. These winds
will slowly abate. However, flow aloft will remain 35-45 knots,
and so some LLWS is likely to develop overnight ahead of a
frontal boundary approaching the St. Lawrence Valley about 12z,
which will also start to drive a west to northwest wind shift
beyond 18z Friday.
Outlook...
Friday Night: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. Likely SHRA.
Saturday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Saturday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Sunday: VFR. Chance SHRA.
Sunday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Likely SHRA.
Monday: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. Likely SHRA.
Monday Night: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Chance SHRA.
Tuesday: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Chance SHRA,
Slight chance TSRA.
&&
.EQUIPMENT...
The Colchester Reef meteorological station is out of service.
This site is not serviced by the NWS. An estimated return to
service is May 1st. Please contact us if you observe winds
significantly deviating from the recreational forecast.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.
&&
$$
WHAT HAS CHANGED...Danzig
DISCUSSION...Haynes/Danzig
AVIATION...Haynes
EQUIPMENT...NWS BTV
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