879
FXUS61 KBTV 020635
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
135 AM EST Tue Dec 2 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Our first east coast winter storm of the season will bring
widespread snow to Vermont and northern New York on Tuesday,
with moderate to heavy snow at times mainly in central and
southern Vermont. An Arctic cold front will bring snow showers
and snow squalls to the region as it sweeps eastward during the
day. The coldest weather of the early winter will follow, with
persistent below normal temperatures and snow shower chances
continuing through the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 201 PM EST Monday...

** Winter Storm Warnings are now in effect from 7 AM Tuesday to
 1 AM Wednesday in portions of southern Vermont **

** Winter Weather Advisories are in effect from 7 AM Tuesday to 1 AM
Wednesday in much of northern Vermont and Essex County, New York **

The upcoming snow event is largely on track with widespread 3 to 7
inches of snowfall expected in most of Vermont and southern portions
of the Adirondacks, with amounts dwindling farther north and west.
The latest forecast trended a little snowier farther north/east. The
probability matched-mean snowfall off the latest HREF run, a
skillful reasonable high-end snowfall, now shows totals exceeding 6"
in much of Vermont and exceeding 10" in much of Windsor County,
and portions of Orange and Rutland counties; our current
forecast more closely resembles the ensemble mean, with 6-8"
common in the Winter Storm Warning area and 4-7" where the
advisories are in effect. Much of the event will be a steady,
light to moderate snowfall of roughly 0.5"/hour snow, leading
to snow covered roads and slippery conditions for both the
morning and evening commutes. Snow character will tend to be on
the fluffy side, with perhaps a slight decrease with time,
with average snow ratios largely in the 14-16:1 range. Onset
time of snow will be 5 to 8 AM where headlines are up; while
some light snow is possible in the predawn hours, steady snow
should blossom around 7 AM with the first inch or two of snow
accumulating through the morning.

Between about 10 AM and the remainder of the day, a swath of
heavier snowfall favored in portions of southern Vermont, with
expected mid-level frontogenesis helping to enhance snowfall
rates in both quasi-stationary and laterally-translating bands
that diminish somewhat as they move northward. In these bands,
snowfall rates of 0.5"-1" are expected, and potentially higher
given snow ratios often increase due to strong vertical motion
in the snow growth cloud layer. Residence time will tend to be
longest in a narrow axis which cannot be predicted precisely.
The most intense snow is favored to our south where confidence
in the banded snow is a bit higher. Also, there is a bit more
uncertainty in the ending time, as the back edge of snow
generally will slide eastward during the late afternoon into the
evening, but persist longer in southern and eastern Vermont,
potentially through midnight, which would lead to greater snow
amounts and helps explain an uptick in snow amounts in eastern
Vermont.

As the storm departs, increasing north to northwesterly winds
associated with the backside of the departing, intensifying
storm could cause some drifting of snow, but generally winds
will not be a factor with this event as this period of stronger
winds will tend to be in the early morning hours. High pressure
should build in pretty quickly from the west, leading to
relaxation of winds towards daybreak.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
As of 135 AM EST Tuesday...An arctic cold front looks to push across
the region Thursday morning, bringing a line of snow showers and
breezy winds. Snow squalls continue to look likely with this feature
looking at the strong frontogenesis and overall dynamics of the
system. Hazardous travel conditions will be possible Thursday
morning with these potential squalls, as any snow squalls will be
capable of severely reduced visibilities and a quick burst of
snowfall, which may impact the Thursday morning commute, especially
for northern New York and the northern Champlain Valley as the
frontal passage looks to be between 7AM and 10AM, continuing to push
across the region through the late morning and afternoon.
Temperatures will begin to drop sharply behind the front, with
unseasonably cold air ushering into the region. Daytime highs on
Thursday will be early in the day, with temperatures in the 20s to
low 30s which will drop through the afternoon into the teens and
20s. overnight lows Thursday night look to drop into single digits
above and below zero areawide, with wind chill values dipping below
zero with some higher elevations approaching -25F.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 135 AM EST Tuesday...The cold and active weather pattern looks
to continue as we head into the weekend, with a large upper level
trough ans several short wave disturbances bringing chances for
precipitation, especially across the higher terrain and more
northern locations. Temperatures on Friday will be unseasonably
cold, with high temperatures only climbing into the teens to mid
20s. Temperatures will warm slightly for Saturday, but another cold
front will usher in another period of colder temperatures for the
beginning of next week with highs once again in the teens to lower
20s.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Through 06Z Wednesday...Primarily VFR conditions prevail across the
forecast area, with some pockets of MVFR ceilings. As the night
progresses, ceilings will continue to lower, with snowfall arriving
Tuesday morning, generally between 10Z and 14Z, spreading from west
to east. Snowfall will generally bring IFR conditions will
visibilities between 1-2SM, with some intervals of moderate snowfall
bringing visibilities to 1/2SM or less, especially across more
southern terminals like KRUT. Ceilings will continue to drop
throughout the morning, with widespread low MVFR and some IFR
ceilings expected. Winds will generally be light and out of the
south/southwest throughout the forecast period.

Outlook...

Wednesday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance
SHSN.
Thursday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Windy with gusts
to 30 kt. Chance SHSN.
Thursday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Friday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Friday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHSN.
Saturday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHSN.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
NOAA Weather Radio station WXM-44, transmitting from Mt.
Ascutney, Vermont, on frequency 162.475 MHz is non-operational
at this time. NWS technicians have diagnosed the problem, but
repairs will likely not be able to occur for quite some time due
to circumstances beyond our control. Therefore, the time of
return to service is currently unknown. The following NOAA
Weather Radio transmitters may be able to provide service during
this outage: WWG 50 from Burke Mtn, VT at 162.425 MHz and WNG
546 from Hanover, NH at 162.525 MHz.

Equipment malfunctions at the Colchester Reef meteorological
station will likely leave it inoperable for an extended period
of time. This site is not serviced by the NWS. Technicians do
not currently have an estimated return to service for this
station. Use extra caution when navigating the broad waters of
Lake Champlain, and please contact us if you observe winds
significantly deviating from the forecast.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...Winter Weather Advisory from 7 AM this morning to 1 AM EST
     Wednesday for VTZ003>009-017.
     Winter Storm Warning from 7 AM this morning to 1 AM EST
     Wednesday for VTZ010-011-018>021.
NY...Winter Weather Advisory from 7 AM this morning to 1 AM EST
     Wednesday for NYZ034-035.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Kutikoff
NEAR TERM...Kutikoff
SHORT TERM...Kremer
LONG TERM...Kremer
AVIATION...Kremer
EQUIPMENT...Team BTV