055
FXUS61 KBTV 100716
AFDBTV
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
316 AM EDT Fri Apr 10 2026
.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
As of 255 AM EDT Friday...
Winds were increased Sunday night into Monday ahead and along a
cold front expected to move through the region.
&&
.KEY MESSAGES...
As of 255 AM EDT Friday...
1. Dry conditions will persist for southern Vermont ahead of a
wetting rainfall as a cold front moves through the region.
2. Temperatures trend warmer late this weekend with another
system expected to move through the region by Monday. Gusty
winds are possible.
3. Unseasonably warm temperatures are expected for next week,
along with several chances for precipitation.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
As of 255 AM EDT Friday...
KEY MESSAGE 1: Dry conditions continue, especially across
southern Vermont where overnight recoveries will remain poor to
moderately good. Winds remain breezy at the time of this
writing which is keeping radiation inversions for forming in
many valleys while ridge/slopes remain exposed to drier
breezes. Fortunately, wind speeds are not critical and are
expected to trend lighter while RH recovers into the 45-70%
range by daybreak. Keeping with latest observation trends, opted
not to go with model guidance for dew points in southern Vermont
keeping drier conditions ongoing through this afternoon. Winds
will increase marginally through the day, so some gusts to 25
mph remain possible and could result in very localized areas of
fire weather concerns in southern Vermont.
A cold front will move through the region today bringing a
wetting rain(0.1" or greater) that will help mitigate fire
weather concerns heading into the weekend. Kept QPF trending
with CAMs which are better highlighting terrain with higher QPF
amounts ranging 0.25-0.5" while lower elevations range
0.1-0.25" in general. Frontal timing remains fairly consistent
with heaviest precipitation occurring early afternoon for the
St Lawrence Valley, between 6 and 9 PM for the Champlain Valley,
and by midnight for southern Vermont. Westerly flow will
promote some shadowing, especially in southern Vermont where the
lowest amounts are projected to be. Temperatures will be above
seasonal averages today and tonight trending more seasonal for
Saturday.
KEY MESSAGE 2: Another system will be approaching Sunday with
widespread rain seemingly probable Sunday night into Monday.
Projected position of the parent low moving over the James Bay
will favor strongest forcing north of the region so
thunderstorms are not as likely. However, model projections of a
strong low level jet remain and support concerns for gusty
winds, especially in the Champlain Valley. Strong warm air
advection is likely in this pattern and would support high
temperatures at least in the 60s for most locations, if not
around 70 degrees Monday afternoon.
KEY MESSAGE 3: Surface high pressure will shift eastward by the end of
the weekend, with guidance continuing to support the eastern CONUS
under broad upper level ridging. Several shortwaves look to move
into the region under broad zonal flow, bringing chances for rain
showers, but the exact timing and details of these features are
difficult to pinpoint this far out. Unseasonably warm temperatures
are expected for early next week, as southerly flow helps usher in
warmer air. Daytime high temperatures look to climb into the upper
60s and even 70s by the middle of next week. In comparison, normal
high temperatures for this time of year are generally in the upper
40s to mid 50s. These trends will need to be monitored as we get
closer.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Through 06Z Saturday...VFR conditions currently prevail across all
terminals, and will continue for the next few hours before
precipitation arrives. Rain will gradually spread across the region
from northwest to southeast as a front boundary moves across the
region, starting to move into the region between 15Z and 21Z. This
rain will lead to lower ceilings and some reduced visibilities,
generally MVFR with visibilities between 4-6SM and ceilings trending
below 2000 ft AGL. Some IFR ceilings will be possible towards the
end of the forecast period, especially across northern New York with
all of the increased moisture. Winds continue to be southerly, with
some gusts up to 30 knots still occurring at KBTV. As the front
moves across the region, winds will shift to become more
north/northwesterly. Some periods of LLWS will be possible at
terminals throughout the forecast period.
Outlook...
Saturday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. NO SIG WX.
Saturday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Sunday: VFR. Chance SHRA.
Sunday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Likely SHRA,
Slight chance TSRA.
Monday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Likely SHRA.
Monday Night: Mainly MVFR, with areas IFR possible. Chance SHRA.
Tuesday: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. Chance SHRA,
Slight chance TSRA.
&&
.EQUIPMENT...
The Colchester Reef meteorological station is out of service.
This site is not serviced by the NWS. An estimated return to
service is May 1st. Please contact us if you observe winds
significantly deviating from the recreational forecast.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.
&&
$$
WHAT HAS CHANGED...Boyd
DISCUSSION...Kremer/Boyd
AVIATION...Kremer
EQUIPMENT...NWS BTV
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