623
FXUS61 KBTV 050742
AFDBTV
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
342 AM EDT Sun Apr 5 2026
.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
As of 342 AM EDT Sunday...
No significant changes to the forecast. Confidence in wintry
weather early this week including widespread light snowfall,
especially for Monday night into Tuesday morning, continues to
increase.
&&
.KEY MESSAGES...
As of 342 AM EDT Sunday...
1. Strong south to southeast winds are winding down this
morning with additional scattered power outages likely. As these
winds diminish, widespread rain is sweeping eastward ahead of a cold
front which will usher in cool breezes later in the day.
2. Winter weather returns for the start of the work week. A
late season light snowfall is likely for much of the region along
with unseasonable cold. Greatest coverage of snow and snow showers
is favored for late Monday night into Tuesday.
3. Trending warmer with chances for showers for the latter half
of the week and into next weekend.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
As of 342 AM EDT Sunday...
KEY MESSAGE 1: Gusty to strong winds have definitely
materialized overnight with pockets of significant winds,
including measured wind gusts in the 55 to 59 MPH range in
Chazy, Malone and Lake Placid, associated with a powerful low
level jet. Scattered power outages have been observed in
northern New York this morning in these areas. Pockets of power
outages in northern Vermont have occurred as well where an
easterly component to the winds are present, mainly near the
Greens but also even in portions of eastern Orange County. The
low level thermal profiles are pretty complex with multiple
inversions, so there is probably a mix of downsloping and gap
winds that have occurred in these locations that have had tree
limbs downed. The event should be winding down after sunrise as
the gradient flow relaxes a bit.
A large band of rain showers along a cold front are gradually
shifting eastward and remain on track to exit Vermont by early
afternoon. The brisk west-southwesterly flow within the showers
will serve to dry out areas downwind of the Adirondacks such
that rainfall amounts still look relatively light in the western
Champlain Valley and Upper Valley/Lower Connecticut Valley.
Overall, rainfall does not look impactful; aside from the
aforementioned areas where amounts are expected to be less than
0.2", event average rainfall should be 0.3" to 0.5", except
0.5-0.7" in the St. Lawrence Valley.
KEY MESSAGE 2: A series of cold fronts tonight into tomorrow
will usher in a winterlike air mass. The first of two minor snow
events through Tuesday will occur tonight. Upslope snowfall
will develop once temperatures become cold enough overnight,
with froude numbers and near 40 knot westerly winds at 850
millibars suggesting unblocked flow. As such, most accumulations
will be tend to be near and east of the northern Green
Mountains, although in the Adirondacks more of a widespread
light snow is favored of generally up to 1". Snow showers will
likely diminish during the afternoon.
More significantly cold air will be drawn southeastward into our
region Monday night, with a mid-level wave and weak surface
reflection approaching from the west and passing near or just
south of us. The footprint of precipitation, which will be
likely in the form of a burst of snow and additional snow
showers, appears to be fairly compact. The latest forecast is a
little broad with snowfall accumulations owing to latitudinal
differences, but some areas especially in southern portions of
the Adirondacks into the southern Greens could see up to a few
inches of new snow. This snow should be rather high in snow
ratios, especially for April, as opposed to a wet snow.
Temperatures continue to trend colder for Tuesday in response to
the northerly flow behind this system, with temperatures in most
of northern New York and northern Vermont staying in the 20s, or
close to 20 degrees below normal.
KEY MESSAGE 3: High pressure will drift across our region Wednesday
night and offshore on Thursday. South/southwest flow will increase
Thursday and Thursday night ahead of an upper trough approaching
from the northern Great Lakes. The surface low pressure system
associated with this trough looks to remain well to our north,
allowing temperatures to warm into the 50s to around 60F both
Thursday and Friday. The frontal boundary associated with the
surface low will sag southward toward the international border
sometime Friday, but there`s still a lot of differences between
models in how far this front goes and how much precipitation it may
or may not have with it. There are some indications it could stall
somewhere in our vicinity with waves of low pressure riding along it
over the weekend, but this is highly uncertain at this point. Given
the uncertainty, have not made any adjustments away from WPC`s
forecast for the latter half of the week.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Through 06Z Monday...The main concern through the TAF period will be
very gusty winds and strong LLWS as a 70+ kt LLJ moves overhead.
Strongest S/SW winds will occur through 12z Sun, with gusts of 30-40
kt expected, locally 45+ kt at times, especially in the northern
Champlain Valley and northern slopes of the Adirondacks. Even with
these gusts, LLWS of 50-60 kt is expected through 12z, as well.
Winds abate briefly during the day as a frontal boundary pushes
through, switching winds to more of a W/SW direction. Gusts will
pick back up to around 25 kt 20z-00z however, and remain so through
the rest of the TAF period. MVFR conditions will dominate through
much of the TAF period. A few terminals are still VFR, but this will
be short lived as ceilings lower in response to incoming showers.
These showers will move from west to east through the early morning
period, mainly 07z-13z, though lingering into the afternoon at
KRUT/KEFK. Rain may be briefly heavy at times, but overall
anticipate visibility to remain 4- 6SM in most precipitation.
Ceilings will be 1200-2500 ft, though occasional IFR will be
possible at KSLK/KMPV. Showers end by 18z at all terminals, with
ceilings to gradually lift thereafter.
Outlook...
Monday: VFR. Slight chance SHSN.
Monday Night: VFR. Chance SHSN.
Tuesday: VFR. Chance SHSN.
Tuesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Thursday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
&&
.EQUIPMENT...
The Colchester Reef meteorological station is out of service.
This site is not serviced by the NWS. An estimated return to
service is May 1st. Please contact us if you observe winds
significantly deviating from the recreational forecast.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...Wind Advisory until 8 AM EDT this morning for VTZ001>003-005-
006-016-017.
NY...Wind Advisory until 8 AM EDT this morning for NYZ026>031-034-
035-087.
&&
$$
WHAT HAS CHANGED...Kutikoff
DISCUSSION...Hastings/Kutikoff
AVIATION...Hastings
EQUIPMENT...NWS BTV
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