244
FXUS61 KBTV 191927
AFDBTV
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
227 PM EST Thu Feb 19 2026
.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
As of 227 PM EST Thursday...
Winter Storm Warnings were issued for areas near and east of
the Adirondacks and southern Green Mountains, with Winter
Weather Advisories issued elsewhere.
&&
.KEY MESSAGES...
As of 227 PM EST Thursday...
1. Very difficult travel is expected during the Friday afternoon
or evening commute as a burst of heavy snowfall expands
northeastward. Snow will be wet initially, which could result in
isolated power outages, before turning drier and lighter Friday
night into Saturday.
2. Quiet seasonable weather early next week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
As of 227 PM EST Thursday...
KEY MESSAGE 1: Conditions remain quiet and seasonable through
tomorrow morning. We`ll be watching the area of low pressure
over the Midwest today, which will scoot to the northeast and
occlude tomorrow morning near Lake Michigan. Strong
frontogenesis downstream with a surge of PWAT northeastward
along the boundary as it moves steadily into our region. The
elongated upper level low and associated divergence downstream
of this low will support strongest vertical motion and
potentially heaviest precipitation in southern/western portions
of the region, although the forcing does seem to slide eastward
enough such that heavy precipitation rates are possible
throughout our region. While snowfall amounts for this event are
not particularly noteworthy, this event will feature a
combination of intense snowfall rates and fairly wet snow to
become very hazardous for travel.
Onset of deep moisture and associated precipitation has slowed
just a touch based on the latest model guidance, although there
remains some spread. Typically models can be a little too slow
on the precipitation onset with dynamic, warm advection
scenarios, so would not be surprised if precipitation begins
when hourly PoPs are only "chance" (under 55%). That being said,
while Winter Weather Advisories and Winter Storm Warnings
uniformly begin at 10 AM, most likely timing of onset of snow is
between 2 and 4 PM across central portions of Vermont and much
of northern New York, between 4 and 6 PM near the I-89 to Route
15 corridor northwestward into Clinton County, and 6 and 8 PM in
northeastern Vermont. As such, southern areas are most
definitively going to see very difficult travel for the
afternoon/evening commute, but periods of heavy snow are still
expected areawide. Snow to liquid ratios will begin for most
areas near 10:1 (wet), but expect enough snow to become increasingly
dry to limit risk of power outages to isolated in nature, with
chances greatest where Winter Storm Warnings are in effect.
The latest snowfall amounts in the model blend have increased
compared to the previous forecast, but there is a wider range in
25th to 75th percentile values than what one would like to see
so close to an event. Some of the uncertainty is related to
QPF/precipitation amounts, which is complicated by modest
downsloping easterly flow in the western slopes of the higher
terrain and possible convective elements in the precipitation
with some modest elevated instability. north/northeastward
extent of higher precipitation amounts in particular is more
uncertain; if confidence increases on more widespread >0.6"
liquid amounts, probabilities of 7" snowfall amounts would
increase north of where warnings are in effect currently.
Variations in snowfall will also be related to boundary layer
issues early in the event, where precipitation may be a mix of
rain and snow when rates aren`t heavy enough in the eastern
Champlain Valley and southern St. Lawrence Valley.
Snowfall will tend to linger throughout Friday night into
Saturday as an inverted trough and low level convergence may
support persistent light accumulations. Chances of appreciable
snowfall will tend to diminish towards the south and east with
time, although shallow northwesterly flow will develop to help
promote upslope snow showers as ample moisture remains through
the day. A narrow ridge will build into the area Sunday,
supporting seasonable conditions and mainly dry weather.
KEY MESSAGE 2: A nor`easter is expected to miss the region well to the
southeast Sunday into Monday, keeping any significant snow well to
the south. Its only effects would be slightly enhanced winds and
increased clouds. A separate shortwave will try to move into the
region from the Great Lakes on Sunday but at most it would bring a
few light snow showers. These could linger into Monday but any
accumulation would be very light. The next more impactful storm
looks to arrive in the Wednesday-Thursday timeframe. A low looks to
track by to the west and up the St. Lawrence Valley, but warm-air
advection should be limited ahead of it so much of the precipitation
still looks to fall as snow.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Through 18Z Friday...VFR conditions currently prevail at all
terminals and that is expected to continue for the next 24 hours.
There is a low chance that MVFR ceilings develop at SLK and MPV for
a few hours later tonight but that is not expected at this time.
Winds will be light or terrain driven during this time. Widespread
snow develops tomorrow afternoon and continues through the evening,
bringing widespread IFR visibility.
Outlook...
Friday Night: Mainly MVFR, with areas IFR possible. Definite SN.
Saturday: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. Chance SN.
Saturday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight
chance SN.
Sunday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight chance SN.
Sunday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight chance
SN.
Monday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Slight chance SN.
Monday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
&&
.EQUIPMENT...
The KMPV ASOS has suffered a communications failure. The issue
has been diagnosed, but there is currently no estimated time of
return to service. Terminal Aerodrome Forecasts will continue,
but amendments to those forecasts will be suspended.
NOAA Weather Radio station WXM-44, transmitting from Mt.
Ascutney, Vermont, on frequency 162.475 MHz is non- operational
at this time. NWS technicians have diagnosed the problem, but
repairs will likely not be able to occur for quite some time due
to circumstances beyond our control. Therefore, the time of
return to service is currently unknown. The following NOAA
Weather Radio transmitters may be able to provide service during
this outage: WWG 50 from Burke Mtn, VT at 162.425 MHz and WNG
546 from Hanover, NH at 162.525 MHz.
The Colchester Reef meteorological station is out of service.
This site is not serviced by the NWS and there isn`t an
estimated return to service at present. Please contact us if you
observe winds significantly deviating from the recreational
forecast.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...Winter Weather Advisory from 10 AM Friday to 10 AM EST
Saturday for VTZ001>011-016-017.
Winter Storm Warning from 10 AM Friday to 10 AM EST Saturday
for VTZ018>021.
NY...Winter Weather Advisory from 10 AM Friday to 10 AM EST
Saturday for NYZ026>031-087.
Winter Storm Warning from 10 AM Friday to 10 AM EST Saturday
for NYZ034-035.
&&
$$
WHAT HAS CHANGED...Kutikoff
DISCUSSION...Kutikoff/Myskowski
AVIATION...Myskowski
EQUIPMENT...NWS BTV
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