930
FXUS61 KBTV 202149
AFDBTV
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
549 PM EDT Fri Mar 20 2026
.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
As of 548 PM EDT Friday...
Have cancelled the winter weather advisory as accumulating snow
has moved out of the area. Some patchy drizzle or freezing
drizzle is expected overnight as low levels remain saturated.
&&
.KEY MESSAGES...
As of 349 PM EDT Friday...
1. Snow, heavy at times, will continue into the evening hours
with deteriorating road conditions.
2. Another clipper low will bring additional chances for snow
on Sunday into Sunday night.
3. While significant weather is unlikely, wintry conditions
will continue Tuesday through Friday. Greatest chances for
widespread winter precipitation with travel impacts is currently
on Thursday.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
As of 349 PM EDT Friday...
KEY MESSAGE 1: Clipper system and associated fronts pushing
across our area this afternoon is bringing snow, sometimes
heavy, to the area. This system has deep moisture, heavy QPF and
high precipitation rates which has led to some quick
accumulations of wet snow. Have bumped snowfall totals back up
today as we observe heavy snow on radar, webcams and
observations. Snow came in quickly and will also exit quickly
after about 00-03z.
KEY MESSAGE 2: Another clipper low will cross just south of our
area on Sunday. Similar scenario to today with wet snow
expected and will be heavy at times. This time the low will
cross central and southern Vermont. Shifts north or south with
this storm track will change precipitation type. At this time
looks like our storm total QPF will be around two tenths of an
inch along the international border up to three quarters of an
inch across southern Vermont. Snow will move into our area from
the west early Sunday morning, and will be heavy at times
through the morning hours. With the low track right across our
southern zones, we could see some mixed precipitation and rain
creeping northwards. The highest snow fall totals will be from
the northern Adirondacks eastward across the central Greens and
then east to the Connecticut river valley, 3 to 6 inches of snow
with higher totals in the higher elevations. 1 to 2 inches of
snow are expected along the international border, and across
southern Vermont.
KEY MESSAGE 3: Below normal temperatures will persist next week
with temperatures a bit above freezing during the daytime and
below freezing at night. Two periods of light snow accumulations
are noted, primarily Tuesday night into Wednesday, and Thursday
afternoon into early Friday. That being said, predictability in
timing through a fast northwest flow pattern is fairly low, so
stay tuned for details as we get closer. There is greatest
uncertainty on Thursday. One, less likely scenario suggests a
brief warmup and mainly rain ahead of a cold front. This idea is
dominated by the GEFS, with only some contribution from the
GEPS and little ENS. However, the consensus idea would suggest
the large scale ridge out in the western US will maintain cooler
air and more of a clipper- type system for that event with
primarily snow, or at least elevationally-dependent snow.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Through 18Z Saturday...Widespread moderate to heavy snowfall
will continue at terminals, except RUT where precipitation will
be all rain. Back edge of the snow will push eastward with
snowfall winding down as soon as 19Z at MSS, 20-21Z at SLK,
21-22Z in the Champlain Valley, and 22-00Z at MPV and EFK. Low
ceilings will persist after precipitation ends with light winds
and moist conditions, with possibility of fog development. Have
stayed with just BR but lower visibilities overnight are also
possible at times. Generally LIFR conditions are favored at SLK
where ceilings are already at 400 to 500 feet this afternoon,
but also noted a 50% chance of LIFR ceilings at BTV each hour
between 00Z and 05Z. Modest northwest flow of around 5 to 10
knots will develop after 00Z and help maintain IFR ceilings at
most sites throughout the night with the exception of PBG. After
sunrise, gradual raising of ceilings after sunrise is expected
with categorical improvement between 12Z and 18Z.
Outlook...
Saturday Night: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Chance SN.
Sunday: Mainly MVFR, with areas IFR possible. Likely SN, Likely
RA.
Sunday Night: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Chance SN,
Chance RA.
Monday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SN.
Monday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight chance
SN.
Tuesday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SN.
Wednesday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance SN.
&&
.EQUIPMENT...
The Colchester Reef meteorological station is out of service.
This site is not serviced by the NWS and there isn`t an
estimated return to service at present. Please contact us if you
observe winds significantly deviating from the recreational
forecast.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.
&&
$$
WHAT HAS CHANGED...Neiles
DISCUSSION...Kutikoff/Neiles
AVIATION...Kutikoff
EQUIPMENT...NWS BTV
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