194
FXUS61 KBTV 261733
AFDBTV
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
1233 PM EST Mon Jan 26 2026
.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
As of 104 AM EST Monday...Snowfall amounts have been decreased
by 2 to 4 inches across the region. Widespread 8 to 12 inches
remains expected and no changes to the ongoing Winter Storm
Warning were made.
&&
.KEY MESSAGES...
As of 104 AM EST Monday...
1. Light to moderate snow will yield an additional 3 to 7 inches
of snow, with storm totals ranging between 7 to 16 inches, with
the highest values in Essex County, New York and portions of
southern and central Vermont.
2. Below normal temperatures are expected for the mid to late
week time frame, with just a few periodic chances for light snow
showers, mainly in the Lake Ontario snowbelts and in the
northern mountains. In particular, Thursday night into Friday
morning will need to be monitored for potential Cold Weather
headlines.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
As of 104 AM EST Monday...
KEY MESSAGE 1: IR satellite imagery depicts colder cloud tops
shifting away from Vermont and northern New York. This is an
indication of more shallow moisture. Radar reflectivities have
collapsed in southern Vermont. A subtle trough is keeping
activity going across the northern half of Vermont and northern
New York, but this will shift out of the region momentarily,
with a regional lull in activity overnight and early this
morning.
Between the fine crystals and some needles at the event onset,
as well as what looks to be a longer duration of drier, more
subsident air this morning and early this afternoon, snowfall
totals have been reduced about 2-4" areawide. It seems guidance
was too warm in the low-levels, and so the colder conditions
had several areas cooler than favorable temperatures for
dendritic growth. The liquid equivalent aspect of the forecast
is in excellent shape, though. So the expectation of additional
3-7" of snow associated with a mid-level trough that will close
off and produce some low-level FGEN and better upward motions
is on track, even if the gap between little snow and this
feature is somewhat larger. Storm totals are at least 8-12" for
much of the region, with 10-16" in southern-central Vermont.
Portions of the St. Lawrence Valley may struggle to reach 7",
but we`ll see how they do as this subtle trough reaches that
area momentarily.
For those waking in the St. Lawrence Valley, northeasterly
drainage winds have maintained cool wind chills of -5 to -15,
locally down to -20. This will likely continue through mid-
morning. Fortunately, the amount of snow will be relatively
lower there, but bundle up clearing snow given the cool
conditions. Snowfall quickly drops after 8 PM tonight. As winds
shift to the northwest 5 to 10 mph, we`ll see temperatures fall
into the single digits above and below zero overnight. So very
cold wind chills of -5 to -15 are likely.
.KEY MESSAGE 2: A large-scale upper polar trough will influence
weather conditions the rest of the week and maintain below normal
temperatures. Mean daily averages around -8 to -12 degrees will
be the rule during these periods. Several perturbations will
drift into the region, but nothing significant is anticipated
with limited moisture sources. A transient lake effect band will
develop Tuesday afternoon ahead of one of those troughs. Portions
of southern St. Lawrence County could pick up about 3" of snow
as this band drifts south. As far as cold temperatures go,
Thursday night into Friday may need to be watched. Winds will
pick up in advance of a surface trough while reinforcing cold
air. Apparent temperatures based on the latest NBM forecast
already indicate values around -10 to -20 F, with a few batches
of -25 in the Adirondacks and Northeast Kingdom.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Through 18Z Tuesday...Currently light snow continues with a mix
of IFR and MVFR cigs and vis. Generally expect light snow with
several periods of moderate snow possible to prevail for the
next couple of hours, before conditions slowly improve toward
00z, especially our northern NY taf sites (MSS/SLK and PBG).
Surface vis generally in the 1-2SM range with intervals of LIFR
1/2-3/4SM possible at times thru 22z, before improving to 3-5SM
with lingering MVFR cigs. Winds are generally northwest at 4 to
8 knots, except some localized higher gusts possible at BTV btwn
22z-04z this evening. Additional snow shower activity is
possible aft 12z Tuesday acrs our northern NY taf sites, which
could spread into VT sites toward 18z with a combination of
MVFR/IFR conditions likely.
&&
.EQUIPMENT...
NOAA Weather Radio station WXM-44, transmitting from Mt.
Ascutney, Vermont, on frequency 162.475 MHz is non-operational
at this time. NWS technicians have diagnosed the problem, but
repairs will likely not be able to occur for quite some time due
to circumstances beyond our control. Therefore, the time of
return to service is currently unknown. The following NOAA
Weather Radio transmitters may be able to provide service during
this outage: WWG 50 from Burke Mtn, VT at 162.425 MHz and WNG
546 from Hanover, NH at 162.525 MHz.
The Colchester Reef meteorological station is out of service.
This site is not serviced by the NWS and there isn`t an
estimated return to service at present. Use extra caution when
navigating the broad waters of Lake Champlain. Please contact us
if you observe winds significantly deviating from the
recreational forecast.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...Winter Storm Warning until 1 AM EST Tuesday for VTZ001>011-
016>021.
NY...Winter Storm Warning until 1 AM EST Tuesday for NYZ026>031-034-
035-087.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Haynes
AVIATION...Taber
EQUIPMENT...NWS BTV
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