517
FXUS61 KBTV 130026
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
826 PM EDT Thu Mar 12 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
As of 318 PM EDT Thursday...

A Winter Weather Advisory has been issued for the northern
Adirondacks and southern Greens for 2 to 6 inches of snow from
Friday afternoon through Saturday afternoon. The threat for
additional flooding has passed, so the flood watch has been
allowed to expire.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
As of 318 PM EDT Thursday...

1. A clipper system will bring up to 6 inches of snow and some
gusty winds Friday into early Saturday.

2. Strong winds, heavy rain, and snow possible Sunday through
Tuesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
As of 318 PM EDT Thursday...

KEY MESSAGE 1: A clipper system will move through the region
from west to east Friday into Saturday morning. Snow will move
into our area from west to east beginning Friday afternoon and
continuing overnight. Have issued a winter weather advisory for
the northern Adirondacks and southern Greens where the snowfall
totals are expected to be highest and will range from about 2 to
6 inches. Models continue to indicate that this low will track
through the St Lawrence valley and across northern Vermont. This
will support shadowing across the Champlain Valley and eastern
Vermont, with the higher amounts in the higher terrain, mainly
the western facing slopes of the northern Adirondacks.
Probabilities of exceeding 4" is mainly maximized over the
Adirondacks at 70-80%. Given marginal temperatures in the low to
mid 30s, even with some wet bulbing, some areas of rain are
possible across the St. Lawrence and Champlain Valleys as well
as across southern Vermont.

In addition to the snow potential, winds will also be a
concern. A deepening surface low riding behind a departing high
will add the influence of the isallobaric wind. Coupled with a
50-60kt LLJ, winds may become gusty at times. Have continued to
trend towards the NBM90th given the increased model trends
towards higher gusts, but trends will need to be closely
monitored.

KEY MESSAGE 2: A warm front will lift across the region Sunday
afternoon with a quick round of rain/snow associated with the
frontal boundary. Significant warming is expected in the wake of
the warm front Sunday night and continuing into early next
week. The latest deterministic global guidance has come into
agreement that there will be a prolonged dry slot that`ll
continue into Monday morning. The dry slot will be a combination
of downsloping winds off the high terrain with a 60-70 knot LLJ
coupled with a significant drying in the 900 to 500 mb layer.
The main concern during this dry slot will be the potential for
channeled winds up the Champlain and St. Lawrence Valleys in
addition to winds at and near summit level. A strong stable
layer is expected to develop near the surface which will likely
prevent mixing of the strong winds to the surface but summit and
near summit level winds could approach 60-70 mph. Taking a look
at the data now, it looks like gusts should generally be in the
20-30 mph range but the potential remains for much stronger
gusts depending on the depth of mixing.

After a period in the warm and dry sector, a shortwave is
forecasted to eject ahead of the main upper level trough to the
west and could spark some rain showers Monday afternoon ahead of
the main frontal passage that is expected Monday night. When
the main frontal boundary comes through, a period of moderate to
heavy rainfall seems likely as models are showing very
impressive dynamics and thermodynamic profiles highlighted by
very impressive values of frontogenesis. Depending on your model
of choice, we could easily see a quick half inch to an inch of
rain with the potential for higher amounts if thunderstorms
develop.

A quick transition from rain to snow is expected Monday night
into early Tuesday morning as the thermal gradient behind the
cold front is very impressive (hence high frontogenesis values).
This should allow for rain to change over to snow but just how
quickly and how much is yet to be determined. Typically, when
waiting for cold air to displace warmer air, models tend to
change over to snow too quickly. Anyways, it`s possible we could
see some snow as we head towards the morning commute on Tuesday
so it could be a messy morning across the North Country and
northern New York.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Through 00Z Saturday...Mainly VFR conditions will prevail until
late in the forecast period with a few spots holding onto MVFR
CIGs like SLK and MPV. Northerly flow will continue through
Friday morning with some breezes likely gusting up to around
20kts. Winds shift late tomorrow becoming southerly ahead of a
clipper type system becoming easterly for northern New York
terminals. Flight conditions begin to deteriorate after 20Z from
southwest to northeast as snow chances increase. BTV/MPV/EFK may
be spared from snow this cycle, but chances increase further
after 00Z Saturday.

Outlook...

Friday Night: Mainly MVFR and IFR, with local VFR possible.
Definite SN.
Saturday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Windy with gusts
to 30 kt. Chance SN, Chance RA.
Saturday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Windy with
gusts to 30 kt. Slight chance SN.
Sunday: VFR. Windy with gusts to 30 kt. Chance SN, Chance RA.
Sunday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Windy with
gusts to 35 kt. Chance RA, Chance SN.
Monday: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Windy with gusts to
30 kt. Definite RA.
Monday Night: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Windy with
gusts to 30 kt. Definite RA, Chance SHRA, Chance SHSN.
Tuesday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight chance
SHSN.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
The Colchester Reef meteorological station is out of service.
This site is not serviced by the NWS and there isn`t an
estimated return to service at present. Please contact us if you
observe winds significantly deviating from the recreational
forecast.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...Winter Weather Advisory from 2 PM Friday to 2 PM EDT Saturday
     for VTZ019-020.
NY...Winter Weather Advisory from 2 PM Friday to 2 PM EDT Saturday
     for NYZ029-030-034.

&&

$$

WHAT HAS CHANGED...Neiles
DISCUSSION...Clay/Neiles
AVIATION...Boyd
EQUIPMENT...NWS BTV