980
FXUS61 KBTV 190701
AFDBTV
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
301 AM EDT Sun Jul 19 2026
.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
As of 255 AM EDT Sunday...
No significant changes.
&&
.KEY MESSAGES...
As of 255 AM EDT Sunday...
1. Dry through Monday then showers Tuesday into Wednesday.
2. Near normal temperatures expected for the second half of the
week into the weekend. No significant weather anticipated at this
time.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
As of 255 AM EDT Sunday...
KEY MESSAGE 1: A dry and seasonably cool stretch is in store for the
next couple days. Highs will be in the 70s to low 80s and lows will
be in the upper 40s and 50s for most places. An occluding low will
track well to the north Tuesday into Wednesday, bringing several
rounds of showers. The showers look to begin sometime Tuesday and
continue into the day on Wednesday. Right now, the severe threat is
low. There does not look to be a well-defined boundary, instead
several rounds of showers with plenty of clouds look to move
through. There is very little time for solar heating and instability
to form, and the airmass will be relatively cool to start. With the
low tracking well to the north, the best synoptic forcing will be
well to the north, though there should be adequate wind shear. The
system does not look to provide much of a flooding threat either.
GEFS/EPS/CMCE combined ensemble probabilities of receiving more than
an inch of rain are only up to 30 percent. While there will be areas
of convective enhancement, the storms will be quick-moving and there
will be gaps between the showers. PWATs should rise into the 1.5-
1.75 inch range but with the expected setup, that should not pose
too much of a problem.
KEY MESSAGE 2: Wednesday night through Sunday will feature quieter
weather as we close out the week. Upper level trough will pull away
from the region with precipitation coming to an end Wednesday night.
Surface high pressure will ridge over our region Thursday and
Thursday night. A low pressure system passes well to our north
Friday into Friday night, and a weak front will bring our next
chance for showers probably Friday night. The weekend looks mainly
dry at this point with near normal temperatures.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Through 06Z Monday...Cold front still working it`s way across
the region and some showers are present at RUT at time of TAF
issuance. All showers should exit our area in the next hour or
so. Have seen some MVFR ceilings in and behind these showers.
Will see occasional MVFR conditions, from wildfire smoke
producing 3-5SM vsby. Surface winds shift NW overnight at
10-15kt with some gusts 20-25kt, likely highest at BTV. Shallow
frontal inversion may lead to some trapped smoke 09-13Z before
better daytime mixing on Sunday allows any associated vsby
restrictions to end. Can`t rule out some ceilings 1-2kft around
sunrise, especially at KSLK. Drying north winds will allow these
low clouds to dissipate by 12-13Z with VFR for the balance of
the TAF period on Sunday.
Outlook...
Monday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Monday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday: VFR. Likely SHRA, Chance TSRA.
Tuesday Night: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Definite
SHRA, Chance TSRA.
Wednesday: Mainly MVFR, with local VFR possible. Definite SHRA,
Chance TSRA.
Wednesday Night: Mainly MVFR, with local VFR possible. Slight
chance SHRA.
Thursday: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Slight chance
SHRA, Slight chance TSRA.
&&
.MARINE...
Gusty northwest winds will continue for the rest of the night
and into the day today. They look to be sustained in the 15-30
KT range for the rest of the night, before decreasing into the
15-25 KT range during the day. Waves will range in the 1-3 FT
range for the rest of the night, before dropping into the 1-2
foot range for the day. Winds and waves come down significantly
this evening. Winds will drop below 10 KTs and waves will drop
below 1 foot.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.
&&
$$
WHAT HAS CHANGED...Myskowski
DISCUSSION...Neiles/Myskowski
AVIATION...Neiles
MARINE...NWS BTV
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