137
FXUS61 KBTV 161144
AFDBTV
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
744 AM EDT Sat May 16 2026
.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
As of 249 AM EDT Saturday...
No major changes have been made to the forecast. Isolated to
scattered showers are possible late this afternoon and evening, but
coverage has decreased slightly from the previous forecast.
&&
.KEY MESSAGES...
As of 249 AM EDT Saturday...
1. Seasonably warm temperatures are expected this weekend,
with a few isolated to scattered showers possible later this
afternoon into the evening.
2. Above normal temperatures are expected for the first half of
the week ahead.
3. Thunderstorm chances increase late Tuesday through
Wednesday as a front moves through the region.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
As of 249 AM EDT Saturday...
KEY MESSAGE 1: A weak shortwave moving across the region will bring
some isolated to scattered showers to the region late this afternoon
into the evening, with northern New York more likely to see shower
activity. The latest CAM guidance has decreased in the areal
coverage of showers, especially across Vermont. Despite the shower
chances, any precipitation would be quite light, generally less than
0.1 inches with measurable precipitation most likely across northern
New York. In addition to the shower chances, breezy conditions are
expected this afternoon with a developing low level jet overhead.
While there is some uncertainty as to how much winds mix down to the
surface, localized wind gusts of 25 to 35 mph are possible across
northern New York tonight, with some breezy conditions continuing
into Sunday across the region. Temperatures this weekend will be
quite pleasant, with high temperatures generally warming into the
70s both Saturday and Sunday, with a few locations nearing 80.
Despite the warm air temperatures, water temperatures are still
quite cold so use caution if recreating this weekend.
KEY MESSAGE 2: A warming trend will continue into the first half of
next week as a warm front lifts across the region on Monday. Tuesday
looks to be the warmest day, with high temperatures climbing into
the 80s for most locations, with 925mb temperatures around 20C to
25C. These temperatures will be the warmest of the year so far,
especially after a cool start to the month, so it is important to
remember to stay safe in warmer temperatures by staying hydrated and
take frequent breaks if working outside. Dewpoints will also be
trending upwards going into Tuesday, making it feel quite humid
especially for this time of year. The warmth and humidity will
result in increasing instability, which will support the development
of showers and possible thunderstorms for Tuesday, which could
impact how warm temperatures climb during the day Tuesday.
KEY MESSAGE 3: As heat and humidity build Tuesday, so will instability
with a front projected to drop out of Canada. Dew points will
likely range in the 50s and 60s ahead of the front with residual
heating from daytime possibly continuing to trigger convection as
heights fall aloft. Tuesday night into Wednesday, models continue to
show a frontal passage that will likely be a focal point for
convection as it tracks through the region. Timing of the front is
currently during the day hours suggesting added instability
associated with heating is probable. This pattern shows some
potential for a few stronger variety storms with highs in excess of
80 degrees again Wednesday, but changes in frontal timing could
limit or move the window of concern. So Tuesday/Wednesday will be a
"keep an eye on" for now situation.
Later next week, drier conditions and more seasonable temperatures
are favored to return.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Through 12Z Sunday...VFR conditions will persist through the
afternoon today with southerly flow resulting in gusts generally
to around 20kts. Some gusts up to 30kts are possible at MSS this
afternoon with flow aligned with the St Lawrence Valley. 22-04Z
a weak trough will move through the region bringing isolated to
scattered rain showers. Best shower chances will be generally
over northern New York and higher terrain of the Greens which
will lead to mountain obscurations. Winds and precip chances
diminish after 04Z as the trough exits. There could be another
round of low CIGs/fog if skies can clear quickly enough behind
the wave, but left that out for now due to low certainty.
Outlook...
Sunday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Sunday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Monday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Monday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
Tuesday: VFR. Chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA.
Tuesday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA,
Slight chance TSRA.
Wednesday: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Chance SHRA,
Chance TSRA.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.
&&
$$
WHAT HAS CHANGED...Kremer
DISCUSSION...Kremer/Boyd
AVIATION...Boyd
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