512
FXUS61 KBTV 261027
AFDBTV
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
627 AM EDT Sun Apr 26 2026
.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
As of 244 AM EDT Sunday...
Critical fire weather conditions increasingly likely Tuesday
&&
.KEY MESSAGES...
As of 244 AM EDT Sunday...
1. Dry weather continues through Tuesday with critical fire
weather conditions possible Tuesday.
2. Cool and unsettled conditions are expected with daily shower
chances through the end of this week into the weekend.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
As of 244 AM EDT Sunday...
KEY MESSAGE 1: An omega block remains in place for the next couple
days, leading to consistent weather. The ridging will remain over
the region, so dry and sunny weather will generally prevail through
Tuesday. Relative humidity values should drop into the 20 to 40
percent range for most areas during the afternoons, but lighter
winds will lessen fire weather concerns. Peak gusts will generally
be around and under 10 mph through Monday. A very dry layer will
persist above the boundary layer and efficient mixing could cause
dew points to be slightly lower than forecast on any given day,
though lower guidance was already blended into the forecast. Winds
will increase notably on Tuesday, with southerly gusts between 20 to
35 mph possible. The winds, combined with the low relative humidity,
are causing critical fire weather conditions to become increasingly
likely. Fire weather concerns aside, this stretch will feature great
spring weather to get outside. Temperatures will rise into the 60s
and low 70s during the days with abundant sunshine.
KEY MESSAGE 2: An upper level low is projected to linger over the
Northeast next mid to late week promoting daily shower chances as
troughs rotate around. Cloud cover and cooler temperatures aloft
will help keep high temperatures running below seasonal averages
generally in the low/mid 50s. Highest precipitation chances will
occur Wednesday into Thursday with the primary trough moving into
the Northeast ahead of the upper level circulation. Models are
shifting on QPF with likelihood of >0.50" becoming more likely. Many
locations are favoring 0.25-0.5" with southern locations starting to
seeing more potential in the 0.5-1" range. Model forcing has
increased with projections showing increased moisture transport off
the Atlantic northwestward over Vermont/northern New York. Chances
become more scattered by Friday into the weekend with the cold core
of the low moving overhead. Lapse rates will steepen with potential
for snow showers on mountain peaks. Should cloud cover break,
surface instability could increase enough to allow for more numerous
shower chances.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Through 12Z Monday...Persistent VFR at most terminals will
continue through the forecast period with the region under high
pressure. The exception is MSS where some fog has formed near
the airfield. By 12Z, fog/mist will likely be dispersed on the
airfield, but remain in the vicinity until 13Z. Winds will
generally remain light and be more terrain driven in absence of
a stronger pressure gradient. Afternoon northerly winds will be
4 to 9kts.
Outlook...
Monday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Monday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight
chance SHRA.
Wednesday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance SHRA.
Wednesday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Likely
SHRA.
Thursday: Mainly IFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance SHRA.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.
&&
$$
WHAT HAS CHANGED...Myskowski
DISCUSSION...Boyd/Myskowski
AVIATION...Boyd
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