856
FXUS61 KBTV 231102
AFDBTV
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
702 AM EDT Thu Apr 23 2026
.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
As of 239 AM EDT Thursday...
Forecast relative humidity values have dropped slightly for
today.
&&
.KEY MESSAGES...
As of 239 AM EDT Thursday...
1. Dry weather through the weekend with fire weather concerns
today.
2. Dry conditions prevail through Tuesday morning. Rain showers
looking more likely Tuesday afternoon into Wednesday.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
As of 239 AM EDT Thursday...
KEY MESSAGE 1: A weak backdoor cold front is currently passing through
mostly dry. Behind it, winds will shift to the northwest and a drier
airmass will advect in. Relative humidity values are expected to
drop into the 20 to 30 percent range today for most places, except
staying in the 30s in the high terrain. A very dry layer above the
boundary layer and well mixed profiles could cause dew points to
drop slightly farther than forecast during the afternoon. Northwest
winds are expected to gust in the 15 to 25 mph range for most areas,
though localized gusts up to 30 mph are possible. Therefore,
widespread near red flag conditions are expected, with a few
localized areas potentially seeing them. The pressure gradient
slackens on Friday and going into the weekend. Therefore, even
though relative humidity values will remain low, fire weather
concerns will be lower. Winds are expected to gust in the 10 to 20
mph range Friday and only around and under 10 mph over the weekend.
Relative humidity values are expected to fall into the 25 to 40
percent range during those days. Efficient radiational cooling will
allow good humidity recoveries at night. Fire weather concerns
aside, the end of the week and weekend will have great spring like
weather to get outside. While temperatures will drop to around and
below freezing most nights, they will rise rapidly during the days.
KEY MESSAGE 2: Surface high pressure and a building ridge aloft will
keep the weather quiet across the North Country and Vermont Monday
into Tuesday morning before a warm front lifting from the Ohio
Valley brings our next chance for precipitation Tuesday afternoon
into Wednesday. Medium/long range guidance has come into better
agreement with this system showing the primary surface and upper
level lows well to our northwest lifting from the Great Lakes to the
southern tip of James Bay. As such, there isn`t much upper level
support for significant rains, but an increase in PWATs towards 0.75-
1" along the frontal boundary could help produce a decent wetting
rain up to 0.25" which would help squelch fire weather concerns a
bit. Temperatures through the period are expected to be seasonal
with highs in the mid 50s to low 60s, and lows mid/upper 30s to low
40s.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Through 12Z Friday...VFR conditions will prevail through the period
with mainly SKC-FEW250 expected after morning low clouds scatter
out. Only aviation concern today will be gusty NNW winds
developing through the morning and persisting through the
daylight hours. Sustained winds at all terminals should be in
the 8-12kt range with gusts 20-25kts. Winds abate after sunset
to 8kts or less.
Outlook...
Friday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Friday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Saturday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Saturday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
Sunday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Sunday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Monday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.
&&
$$
WHAT HAS CHANGED...Myskowski
DISCUSSION...Lahiff/Myskowski
AVIATION...Lahiff
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