820
FXUS61 KBTV 241106
AFDBTV
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
706 AM EDT Tue Mar 24 2026
.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
As of 231 AM EDT Tuesday...
No significant changes.
&&
.KEY MESSAGES...
As of 231 AM EDT Tuesday...
1. Rain showers Thursday into Friday with snow showers possible
on the front and back ends.
2. Unseasonably cold to start the weekend, then trending warmer
with low chances for precipitation early next week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
As of 231 AM EDT Tuesday...
KEY MESSAGE 1: The northward shift in model guidance continues for the
Thursday night into Friday system, causing it to be mostly rain. A
warm front moves through Wednesday night into Thursday morning and
it will bring the chance for a few snow showers. A slushy coating is
possible across northern areas and the higher terrain but
precipitation will be limited and temperatures will be around and
above freezing during its passage. A dry slot looks to develop for
much of the day on Thursday, though lingering showers are possible
across northern areas. Temperatures rise well above freezing on
Thursday, likely even in the mountains. This looks to melt most of
the snow outside the higher elevations. A round of rain will pass
through Thursday evening and night with the cold front, and could
briefly end as snow. The rain and snowmelt will cause river rises,
but with QPF currently looking to be around a half inch and dew
points mostly topping out in the low 40s, flooding is not expected.
However, some ensemble guidance does bring the East Branch of the
Ausable to action stage in Ausable Forks. The thing to watch is the
speed of the cold front. It looks to move through relatively slowly
but quick enough to keep the heaviest rain from remaining over the
same location. However, a slower passage could cause slightly higher
river rises.
KEY MESSAGE 2: Saturday will be breezy and cold under strong cold air
advection. High pressure will keep conditions mostly dry, but highs
will only be in the 20s to low 30s. When combined with blustery
north/northwest winds, wind chills in the single digits and teens
look likely. Thankfully this cold is short lived and we should start
warming up for the 2nd half of the weekend. As has been the trend,
we`ll remain under fast zonal to northwest flow through early next
week. Several shortwaves will slide through this upper flow, but as
per usual, long range models disagree on timing, placement, and
intensity of these and any associated precipitation. Have therefore
stayed with WPC`s forecast for the remainder of the forecast period.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Through 12Z Wednesday...Other than local MVFR ceilings at KEFK,
VFR conditions expected to prevail through the entire TAF
period. KEFK is currently OVC028, and these lower clouds should
lift and dissipate by 15z. Ceilings to remain AOA 4000 ft
thereafter. Mid clouds start increasing late this afternoon into
the evening, then gradually lower overnight. Winds light and
variable this morning will trend toward the W/SW 5-10 kt with
localized gusts to 20 kt at KMSS.
Outlook...
Wednesday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance
SHRA, Chance SHSN.
Thursday: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. Chance SHRA.
Thursday Night: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Definite
SHRA, Chance SHSN.
Friday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. NO SIG WX.
Friday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Saturday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
&&
.EQUIPMENT...
The Colchester Reef meteorological station is out of service.
This site is not serviced by the NWS and there isn`t an
estimated return to service at present. Please contact us if you
observe winds significantly deviating from the recreational
forecast.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.
&&
$$
WHAT HAS CHANGED...Myskowski
DISCUSSION...Myskowski/Hastings
AVIATION...Hastings
EQUIPMENT...NWS BTV
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