205
FXUS61 KBTV 101803
AFDBTV
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
103 PM EST Sat Jan 10 2026
.SYNOPSIS...
Another widespread light snow event with some wintry mix will
develop tonight, and slippery travel is expected. Snow showers
tomorrow will transition into northwesterly upslope snowfall
tomorrow night. Thereafter, active weather will continue as
temperatures go from a bit above normal through midweek to much
colder late in the week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 101 PM EST Saturday...
**A Winter Weather Advisory remains in effect for western Essex
County of New York as well as eastern Rutland and western
Windsor counties of Vermont. **This Advisory will begin at 5 PM
today and continue until 10 AM tomorrow (Sunday).
**A wintry mix of snow, sleet, and freezing rain tonight will
trend towards snow by daybreak Sunday.
** Snow accumulations up to 3 inches and ice accumulations of
up to one tenth of an inch.
**Travel is expected to be especially slick on bridges and
overpasses, as well as at higher elevations.
High pressure is currently stationed over southern Vermont this
afternoon while vertically stacked low pressure can be located in
southwestern Ontario, Canada/northeastern Minnesota. A surface low
pressure can also be identified in the southeastern United States
this afternoon. The Canadian/Minnesotan low pressure is
expected to twist across the Great Lakes tonight, potentially
merging with a surface low coming from the Ohio Valley, then
crossing into Quebec, Canada, early tomorrow morning. At the
same time, the low in the Southeast looks likely to drive north
and east, strengthening along the New Jersey Coast and southern
New England.
What this means for us in northern New York and Vermont is
increasing chances for precipitation this evening and early tonight
as well as warming aloft in southerly flow. Precipitation type will
be messy with snow, rain, sleet, and freezing rain all possible.
Though the roads were slick this morning as pavement temperatures
fell below freezing, air temperatures have remained fairly mild with
surface observations coming in above 32 F this afternoon. Due to
this, the first burst of precipitation may be any number of
precipitation combinations as the surface air struggles to cool.
Most likely precip types to start:
- Rain in areas where temperatures stay mild
- Snow in areas that experience sufficient wet bulb cooling
Less likely but still possible:
- Freezing rain...some models indicate surface temperatures
falling below freezing with the sunset and wet bulb cooling
while milder air persists just above the surface in southerly
flow.
Then, warmer air at the 800mb level is expected to arrive, producing
a more likely period of sleet or freezing rain moving southwest to
northeast where the surface remains cold. The locations this occurs
will be mostly cold pockets/hollows of the Greens and at higher
elevations. For most spots, however, models are hinting at
precipitation types changing over to rain quickly in the wider
valleys and changing over to snow elsewhere with model surface
temperatures trending higher and rapidly eliminating the warm nose.
By the early morning hours tomorrow, most models show cold air
working its way into a good portion of the lower levels of the
atmosphere, changing all precipitation types over to widespread snow
with lows in the upper 20s to lower 30s. Dry air flows in quickly at
the same time with both sources of forcing (low pressures) off to
our northwest and southeast, placing us in a dry slot, likely
resulting in brief snowflakes on the back end of the system but
mostly dry weather for tomorrow morning.
The Canadian low does drift close enough near our international
border tomorrow afternoon into the evening to bring some scattered
breezy snow showers to the forecast area. We are monitoring the
potential for snow squalls that afternoon and evening, but favorable
ingredients for this hazard are not lining up well at the moment.
Instability looks meager and there`s no clear sign of a surface
frontal boundary to assist in forcing. Highs Sunday will be in the
30s for most, roughly 5-10 degrees above seasonal averages. Some
upslope snow is likely Sunday night, but snow growth zone moisture
wanes throughout the night. This event does not look particularly
notable for snowfall due to how quickly deep moisture departs with
low pressure moving into the Gulf of St. Lawrence. The mountains
could pick up an additional 1-5 inches of snow. Northwesterly winds
do look to pick up overnight, however, which could blow around snow
and cause visibility issues in spots. Sunday night will also be much
cooler than tonight is expected to be with lows in the teens to
lower 20s and wind chills as low as -5 to 15 F.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY/...
As of 219 AM EST Saturday...
*Key Point: Upslope snow and blustery conditions Sunday night
A relatively brief period of westerly upslope snow is on track
for Sunday night. This event does not look particularly notable
for snowfall due to how quickly deep moisture departs and
overly strong winds. A couple hours of moderately heavy snow
showers will probably transition to light showers and flurries
towards daybreak, with a fresh inch to locally a few inches
possible in the foothills of the northern Greens. May need to
increase gusts in forecast updates based on trends of the
deepening of the departing low pressure system and the
subsequent well mixed west-northwest flow over our region
showing 30 to 40 knots of winds at the top of the mixed layer.
Otherwise, breezy conditions will persist into Monday with winds
trending southwesterly ahead of our next system that may spread
snow showers into northern New York by the end of the day.
Temperatures look very seasonably, staying below freezing but
not by much; highs will likely be in the upper 20s to lower 30s
for most locations.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 122 AM EST Saturday...An unsettled weather pattern will persist
through much of next week. A few mountain snow showers will linger
Monday night into early Tuesday. Then more widespread precipitation
is expected for Tuesday night through Wednesday night as upper low
pressure digs into the Great Lakes, allowing a series of low
pressure/frontal systems to push across the Northeast CONUS. There`s
still lots of uncertainty as to how much the northern and southern
streams can phase, and where surface lows will track. The first
looks to remain north of the international border Wednesday;
temperatures would warm into the mid 30s to around 40F, and wider
valleys could see snow mix with and/or change to rain during the
daylight hours. Uncertainty grows thereafter as some guidance shows
high pressure settling over our region while others try to develop
additional low pressure systems along a frontal boundary draped
along the East Coast. Have stayed close to the NBM for now, showing
cooler temperatures for week`s end after Wednesday`s relative
warmth, and keeping at least low chances of snow showers Thursday
into Friday, especially in the northern mountains.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Through 18Z Sunday...Currently VFR conditions at all sites
except some lingering MVFR cigs at MSS, which should lift in the
next 1 to 2 hours. A wintry mix of precipitation will quickly
develop btwn 23-01z across our taf sites this evening with MVFR
vis and cigs likely. The greatest potential for a snow/sleet
mixture with IFR visibilities will be at EFK/PBG/MPV and MSS
with mostly a rain/sleet combination at BTV/SLK and RUT. A light
icing is possible at any airport, given surface temperatures
hovering near freezing. As precipitation departs our terminals
between 05z-08z, a period of low clouds with IFR cigs are likely
at many sites, before improving conditions develop by mid to
late morning on Sunday. Strengthening low level wind fields at
1500 to 4500 feet above ground level will enhance areas of low
level wind shear and turbulence overnight into Sunday. Surface
winds are generally east/southeast at 5 to 15 knots overnight,
but eventually shift to the west/southwest on Sunday.
Outlook...
Sunday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance SHSN.
Monday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHSN.
Monday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Slight chance
SHSN.
Tuesday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Slight chance
SHSN.
Tuesday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance SHSN,
Chance SHRA.
Wednesday: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Likely SHSN,
Chance SHRA.
Wednesday Night: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Chance
SHSN.
Thursday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight chance
SHSN.
&&
.EQUIPMENT...
NOAA Weather Radio station WXM-44, transmitting from Mt.
Ascutney, Vermont, on frequency 162.475 MHz is non-operational
at this time. NWS technicians have diagnosed the problem, but
repairs will likely not be able to occur for quite some time due
to circumstances beyond our control. Therefore, the time of
return to service is currently unknown. The following NOAA
Weather Radio transmitters may be able to provide service during
this outage: WWG 50 from Burke Mtn, VT at 162.425 MHz and WNG
546 from Hanover, NH at 162.525 MHz.
The Colchester Reef meteorological station is out of service.
This site is not serviced by the NWS and there isn`t an
estimated return to service at present. Use extra caution when
navigating the broad waters of Lake Champlain. Please contact us
if you observe winds significantly deviating from the
recreational forecast.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...Winter Weather Advisory from 5 PM this afternoon to 10 AM EST
Sunday for VTZ019-020.
NY...Winter Weather Advisory from 5 PM this afternoon to 10 AM EST
Sunday for NYZ034.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Storm
NEAR TERM...Storm
SHORT TERM...Kutikoff
LONG TERM...Hastings
AVIATION...Taber
EQUIPMENT...Team BTV
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