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  Thursday October 19, 2017

 

NWS Area Forecast Discussion


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369
FXUS61 KBTV 180731
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
331 AM EDT Wed Oct 18 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure along the east coast of the United States will
maintain dry conditions across the North Country through Sunday.
With south to southwest winds in place, temperatures will warm
well above seasonal levels for mid to late October beginning
today, and continue through the upcoming weekend. The next
chance of appreciable precipitation occurs by Monday into
Tuesday of next week as a cold front crosses the area from west
to east.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 307 AM EDT Wednesday...Very quiet wx through the near-
term. A weak shortwave trough passing to our north across
southern Quebec is bringing partly to mostly cloudy skies during
the pre- dawn hours. However, this feature will depart to the
east rather quickly this morning, leaving mostly sunny
conditions for the balance of the daylight hrs. The sfc ridge
axis extending along the east coast of the U.S. and building
shortwave ridging aloft later today will bring dry weather thru
the period, with moderating temperatures. Should see highs into
the mid 60s in valley locations today. Gradient flow moderate
early this morning, with south winds 10-20 mph in the Champlain
Valley during the pre-dawn hrs, but slackening p-gradient will
result in S-SW daytime winds lowering to 5-10 mph. Lows mainly
in the 40s for tonight. Temperatures moderate further on
Thursday, reaching the upr 60s to lower 70s. Another mid-upr
level shortwave trough is progged by 00Z GFS to pass along the
intl border Thursday afternoon. This feature should bring an
increase in mid-upr level clouds, but dry low-level conditions
should preclude any precipitation.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 329 AM EDT Wednesday...High pressure will lead to quiet
weather conditions with mostly clear skies under broad
subsidence. Anticyclonic flow will bring warming temps each day
with 60s on Friday and upper 60s to 70 by Sunday. Each night
we`ll radiatively cool and should see temps in the upper 30s to
low 40s. The weather should be phenomenal for any outdoor
activities planned over the weekend.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 329 AM EDT Wednesday...Coming out of the weekend expect a
full latitude trough digging into the eastern CONUS which will
bring several chances for showers to the region. The first
chance will be a front that moves through late Monday into
Tuesday with the best chance being towards the midweek as a
closed low should develop over the Great Lakes and advances a
stronger frontal system through the North Country. Global models
are depicting a 995mb low over the Great Lakes with a 1020mb
high out over the Atlantic. The resulting pressure gradient
should lead to fairly gusty winds with the potential for 15-25
mph with gust to 30mph of southwest funneled valley flow on
Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Through 12Z Thursday...Mainly VFR/dry conditions. Upper level
disturbance passing across srn Quebec is bringing SCT-BKN040-060
to the region, with localized MVFR conditions at SLK with
upslope flow conditions early this AM. It appears any localized
MVFR in the mountains will dissipate after 14-15Z this morning,
leaving mainly clear conditions through the balance of the TAF
period. SFC winds will remain S-SW thru the period, initially
10-15kts, but generally 5-10kts for the daylight hrs and thru
tonight.

Outlook...

Wednesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Thursday: VFR. Breezy. NO SIG WX.
Thursday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Friday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Friday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Saturday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Saturday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Sunday: VFR. NO SIG WX.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
KTYX radar at Fort Drum, New York will remain down for
scheduled maintenance through a good portion of today (October
18) as technicians repaint the radome.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Banacos
NEAR TERM...Banacos
SHORT TERM...Deal
LONG TERM...Deal
AVIATION...Banacos
EQUIPMENT...Team BTV



 
 
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