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  Monday June 26, 2017

 

NWS Area Forecast Discussion


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000
FXUS61 KBTV 241905
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
305 PM EDT Sat Jun 24 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
A large semi-stationary upper trough across central Canada will
keep a near daily threat of showers and a few thundestorms
across the area through much of the upcoming week. The highest
threat of showers should occur during the afternoon and early
evening hours. Temperatures should average near early summer
seasonal norms through the period.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 305 PM EDT Saturday...A fairly quiet night expected
across the area as deeper tropical moisture responsible for
moderate to heavy rainfall over the past day pulls well east and
south of the area. A weak surface trough dropping south toward
the international border may spark a few showers or an isolated
storm this evening across the far north, otherwise dry weather
is expected. Models differ on the southward extent of this
feature with the NAM-based solutions most bullish on evening
convection. Given the model differences will conditionally paint
scattered 20-40 pops only across the most northern tier of
counties through mid evening or so, tapering values off
thereafter with loss of insolation. By later tonight patchy mist
and/or fog a definite possibility here and there, but given
cyclonic flow aloft and ambient flow of 10-15 kts atop the
nocturnal boundary layer it shouldn`t be widespread.
Adirondack/Eastern VT river valleys and favored hollows show
highest probabilities of occurrence at this point. Low
temperatures near seasonal norms mainly in the 50s.

By tomorrow the next in a seemingly endless train of shortwaves
pulls into the area by the afternoon and evening hours as we remain
under the influence of a semi-stationary longwave trough across
central Canada. Best PVA and modest instability to occur across the
northern half of the area where 40-60 pops will be maintained for
sct/numerous showers and a few thunderstorms. Pops somewhat less
further south and removed from best dynamical forcing (20-40%0.
Highs trend cooler per 925-850 mb thermal progs and higher coverage
of afternoon clouds...mainly upper 60s to mid 70s, perhaps a few
upper 70s far south.

Scattered showers then continue early Sunday evening, especially
north before waning somewhat after midnight with loss of insolation
and exiting shortwave. Variable clouds should be the rule with some
breaks as lows bottom out in the upper 40s to mid 50s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY/...
As of 239 PM EDT Saturday...A stronger shortwave in the long
string of shortwaves rotating around the broad upper trof will
increase rain chances Monday. Some instability will allow for at
least isolated thunder during the afternoon hours and have
allowed at least some limited chances for thunder in the
afternoon and early evening. Temperatures remain below normal
through Monday.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 239 PM EDT Saturday...Unsettled extended forecast
continues. An upper level trough will dominate through mid week
before the flow becomes more zonal. Despite flattening flow, the
net change on the sensible weather will be minimal though as
shortwaves will still be moving through the the zonal flow. In
addition, nearly stationary boundary will be present near the
area with increasing instability toward the end of the week.
Good chances for thunderstorms on Thursday, and again toward the
end of the week.

Below normal temperatures are expected through most of the extended,
with a warming trend from mid week and later.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Through 18Z Sunday...VFR through 03Z with mainly SKC to
scattered cigs in the 040-080 AGL range. Winds generally west to
northwesterly from 8-13 kts and occasionally gusty into the
15-20 kt range. A weak trough dropping south toward the intl
border may spark a few showers in the 22-03Z time frame with
highest probability of occurrence at KMSS. Most terminals should
remain pcpn-free however. After 03Z winds abate to light with
differing signals on degree/coverage of patchy br/fg across the
area. Despite ambient flow from 10-15 kts just off the deck,
wet/near saturated soils from recent moderate/heavy rainfall
boosts confidence on more bullish solutions. Fow now will offer
patchy 2-5sm br at most terminals in the 06-12Z time frame,
though admittedly whether specific terminals actually fog in is
a matter for debate. Highest probabilities at favored terminals
of KMPV/KSLK and to a lesser extent KRUT. After 12Z Sunday VFR
returns with sct cigs from 050-090 AGL as winds trend light
south/southwesterly from 4-8 kts.

Outlook...

Sunday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA...Slight Chance TSRA.
Monday: VFR. Chance SHRA.
Monday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA.
Tuesday: VFR. Likely SHRA.
Tuesday Night: VFR. Slight Chance SHRA.
Wednesday: VFR. Chance SHRA.
Wednesday Night: VFR. Slight Chance SHRA.
Thursday: VFR. Chance SHRA...Chance TSRA.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMG
NEAR TERM...JMG
SHORT TERM...Manning
LONG TERM...Manning
AVIATION...JMG



 
 
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