FXUS61 KBTV 180220
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Burlington VT
1020 PM EDT Sun Mar 17 2019
Scattered flurries and a few snow showers will persist through
tonight as another weak front crosses the area. High pressure
will then bring mainly dry and continued seasonably cool weather
to the region Monday and Tuesday. Temperatures moderate briefly
by Wednesday into Thursday with renewed chances of light rain
and snow showers before temperatures cool once again by Friday
into next Saturday.
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
As of 1018 PM EDT Sunday...Forecast remains on track with areal
coverage of light snow showers increasing across the northern
Dacks into parts of northern VT. SLK crntly down to 1 3/4sm in
light snow. Expect activity to continue for the next 1 to 3
hours before drier air associated with developing 1024mb high
pres builds into the fa. Temps are warmer than anticipated at
this time, but expect clearing skies after midnight and with dry
sfc dwpts, anticipate lows to be realized toward sunrise on
Monday. No changes made to crnt forecast.
Water vapor shows cyclonic northwest flow aloft prevailing
across the NE CONUS with several weak embedded 5h short waves.
The overall depth of moisture is limited and sfc dwpts have
fallen back into the single digits to lower teens, so any snow
shower activity will be mainly confined to the mountains
overnight. Crnt forecast has high chc pops from the northern
Dacks into the mountains of central/northern VT, which looks
reasonable. The combination of synoptic scale lift and some
upslope flow should result in light snow shower activity
overnight. Snow accumulations generally an inch or less. Temps
are tricky with drier dwpts and weak low level caa continuing,
but plenty of clouds prevail. Have tweaked lows a little across
the dacks and NEK to mention lows around 10f, otherwise forecast
in great shape.
Previous discussion below:
Mainly quiet weather continues over the next 42 hours as
surface high pressure is bridged aloft by broad upper troughing.
Another weak shortwave trough passage will likely bring a
window of scattered flurries/snow showers to the area later this
evening into tonight during which very minor accumulations of a
dusting to perhaps an inch will be possible across the northern
half of the forecast area. Always hard to tease out the details
in such small features, but model consensus appears to favor
steadiest activity across the higher terrain of the Dacks and
northern Greens and this is what I`ll run with for now. Low
temperatures similar to last night ranging generally from 8 to
18 above with some variability.
Any lingering morning flurries to then give way to partly sunny
skies through the day on Monday under building surface high
pressure. With little change in airmass high temperatures will run
quite similar today`s readings, topping out from the mid 20s to
lower 30s in most spots under light west to northwesterly winds.
Then clear to partly cloudy by Monday night with aforementioned high
pressure overnight. Winds will trend light along with decent
radiative effects so low temperatures should be a tad colder -
mainly from 5 to 15 above.
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 301 PM EDT Sunday...Temperatures on Tuesday will similar to
those on Monday as afternoon highs struggle to climb into the
upper 20s to mid 30s. Throughout the day, the western periphery
of the upper level trough will track through the region which
may be just enough to produce an isolated snow shower or two
over Northern New York but given the lack of moisture to work
with, shower activity should remain rather sparse. A brief
pattern change will take place on Wednesday with low amplitude
ridging aloft allowing for flow aloft to shift to the
west/southwest. This will result in warm air advection in the
low to mid-levels and allow surface temperatures to rebound
nicely into he 40s on Wednesday. Winds could be a little gusty
on Wednesday from the south/southwest but with warmer air moving
in aloft, the depth of the mixing layer will shrink and limit
wind gusts during the afternoon hours. Wednesday should remain
fairly with the low amplitude ridging overhead but that all
changes Wednesday night as a frontal boundary takes aim at the
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 301 PM EDT Sunday...Rain showers will move into North New York
early Thursday morning and overspread the North Country by Thursday
afternoon. Models continue to show a sharp trough dropping south
which will be able to interact with some weak low-level instability.
Colder air will quickly begin to filter in aloft behind the cold
front Thursday afternoon but given the timing of the cold air
advection and frontal passage, temperatures should once again rise
into the 40s during the early afternoon hours. This should allow for
some of the rain showers to mix with or change over to snow during
the Thursday evening/Thursday night timeframe. Little accumulation
is expected as drier air accompanies the colder air filtering in.
Temperatures Friday night will drop down into the teens but are
trending warmer than yesterday as it looks like continued shower
activity should keep skies mostly cloudy through the overnight
period. This shower activity will likely continue through the day on
Friday as a strong shortwave dives south on the western periphery of
the trough with areal coverage tapering off throughout the day.
Saturday will be by far the coldest day in the extended with highs
likely rising to or just below freezing which is well below seasonal
normals. The aforementioned trough will be very progressive as the
upper level pattern over the central US becomes highly amplifies.
This will force the trough east of us on Sunday with temperatures
rebounding into the 40s with some places approaching Friday by
Sunday. Surface high pressure will build across the region Saturday
night into Sunday which should shut off any lingering precipitation
and lead to clearing skies for the second half of the weekend.
.AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Through 00Z Tuesday... Aviation conditions are currently VFR
across all TAF sites with light southwest to northwest winds at
5 to 10 knots. Winds will become 5 knots or less overnight. Snow
showers are moving in across New York now, which will bring
intermittent visibilities of 3 to 8 SM. The greatest chances for
snow showers will be at KSLK. Whereas most sites will see these
snow showers up until about 08Z, KSLK will see them linger
until about 14Z. Ceilings VFR at all sites, except briefly at
SLK alongside heavier snow showers generally between 03Z and
14Z, which should intermittently bring ceilings down to
2000-3000ft AGL. Otherwise, winds will become more
west northwesterly at 5 to 10 knots after daylight about 12Z.
Monday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday Night: VFR. Likely SHSN, Likely SHRA.
Thursday: Mainly MVFR, with local VFR possible. Chance SHRA,
Thursday Night: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Chance
Friday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance SHSN, Chance