266
FXUS61 KBTV 150215
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
1015 PM EDT Sat Sep 14 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure building into the region tonight will bring drier
air to the region. This will make for a nice day on Sunday with
highs in the mid 60s to around 70...no precipitation... and
partly to mostly sunny skies.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 1010 PM EDT Saturday...Still no changes needed with this
update with going forecast in really good shape. Winds have
drastically diminished across the area over the last hour or so
as the nocturnal boundary layer stabilizes any mixing
potential. Low clouds have settled in across eastern VT, but
satellite and observational trends show drier air making its way
into northern New York. This dry air will progress eastward and
should help scour out most clouds, however expect lingering
stratus to remain across the high terrain with decent flow (35
kt at 850mb) still aloft per KCXX VWP and Whiteface & Mansfield
obs reporting gusts upwards of 40 kt.

Previous Discussion...Low level jet continues to move north and
east of the area this afternoon. This feature brought the
strong and gusty winds to parts of the area early this morning
through about midday. While the jet moves away we have still
been able to keep the gusty winds around as breaks in the cloud
cover over parts of northern New York and northwest Vermont have
allowed for better mixing. As low level lapse rates begin to
stabilize later this afternoon through sunset we will see a more
noticeable decrease in the winds. We should also see the
continued erosion of clouds tonight as drier air moves into the
region. This drier air should limit the threat for additional
precipitation this afternoon and evening. Unfortunately we
cannot completely run out the threat of a shower or two as a
front does move through the region late this afternoon and
evening. Have just a slight chance of showers from the northern
Adirondacks eastward as a result...but just for the first part
of the night. Low temperatures tonight will generally be in the
upper 40s to mid 50s.

Weak high pressure builds into the region from the southwest on
Sunday...so not looking at a cooler day. More sunshine is
expected and this will allow high temperatures to get into the
60s to around 70. Winds will generally be under 10 mph. Much of
the day will remain dry...but we will see a weak shortwave
trough move toward the region late in the day and could bring
some showers to parts of northern New York late in the day. Flow
aloft turns northwest Sunday night and this will help to limit
the eastward extent of any precipitation and only places that
will have a slight chance or chance of showers will again be
over parts of northern New York and the far southern portions of
Vermont. Precipitation amounts will generally be less than a
tenth of an inch. Lows Sunday night will be in the mid 40s to
mid 50s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
As of 324 PM EDT Saturday...A few showers will be ongoing
Monday morning over southern Vermont as an upper-level wave
traverses the area. However, showers will move south and east
out of the forecast area by early Monday afternoon...giving way
to increasing sunshine on developing dry northwesterly flow.
Overall a very pleasant fall day in store for Monday once the
showers depart, with scattered fair weather cumulus clouds in
the afternoon, some breezy winds, and temperatures in the upper
60s with low humidity values.

Monday night will be cooler than the previous nights as Canadian
High pressure builds in.  Overnight lows will be in the mid to upper
40s.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 324 PM EDT Saturday...High pressure will build southward
from eastern Canada to the Mid Atlantic Tuesday through Friday,
leading to a prolonged period of dry, quiet weather for the
remainder of the week.

The upper ridge axis, initially over the central US Tuesday, will
slowly shift eastward through the week, keeping the North Country
under dry and cool northwesterly flow.  While the work week will
start off relatively cool (temperatures again in the 60s Tuesday),
temperatures will rise a few degrees each day through the end of the
week.  By Friday, surface high pressure will shift to our east. This
will setup a southwesterly return flow regime, where surface
temperatures will rise into the mid to upper 70s.  With increasing
moisture and instability, chances for showers return going into next
weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Through 00Z Monday...Gusty south to southwest winds will
continue through ~02z, with gusts up to 20 kt possible for
Champlain and St Lawrence valleys, before tapering off overnight.
A mix of MVFR/VFR ceilings expected across the area as drier
air moves in aloft but lingering low level moisture remains
under subsidence inversion. Periods of MVFR are possible
overnight at KSLK, KMPV & KRUT. Have included a TEMPO for
ceilings improvement at KSLK & KMPV as areal coverage of clouds
will vary through first part of the night before drier air mixes
down. Expecting VFR at all other TAF sites through the period. After
14z, expect areawide VFR conditions with high pressure in place
and only some diurnally driven cumulus across area the high
terrain. Winds tomorrow will be out of the west between 5-10 kt.


Outlook...

Sunday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
Monday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Monday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Thursday: VFR. NO SIG WX.

&&

.MARINE...
Winds have finally begun to decrease over Lake Champlain...but
speeds still remain in the 20 to 30 knot range from the south.
There will even be some gusts to 35 knots until this evening.
Waves as a result will remain in the 2 to 5 foot range and
continue to make for very choppy and difficult boating
conditions for the first half of the night. Winds taper off to
15 to 25 knots after sunset through about midnight before winds
become southwest and taper off to 5 to 15 knots.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Evenson
NEAR TERM...Evenson/LaRocca
SHORT TERM...Duell
LONG TERM...Duell
AVIATION...LaRocca
MARINE...Evenson