242
FXUS61 KBTV 141119
AFDBTV
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
719 AM EDT Wed Oct 14 2026
.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
As of 222 AM EDT Wednesday...
Have extended the time frame of drizzle to last for much of the
day today and tonight. The late week system has sped up
slightly, arriving late Thursday night. Have increased the
winds Friday night and Saturday, particularly on the mountains
and lake, to better reflect the strong gusts anticipated with
this frontal system.
&&
.KEY MESSAGES...
As of 222 AM EDT Wednesday...
1. As drizzle and light rain showers come to an end today and
tonight, periods of breezy winds are expected tonight and early
Thursday, resulting in apparent temperatures as low as the mid 20s
and 30s.
2. Another frontal system Friday into Saturday will bring
initial rainfall, sharply colder temperatures into the weekend,
continued gusty winds, and scattered terrain snow showers. Anyone
with outdoor plans for the upcoming weekend should monitor the
forecast closely.
3. Dry weather with a warming trend expected for the first half
of next week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
As of 222 AM EDT Wednesday...
KEY MESSAGE 1: Low pressure will cross the forecast area from west to
east early this morning, heading off into Maine and the Canadian
Maritimes by the end of the day today. Total rainfall amounts are
expected to come to around 0.55-2.25 inches this morning, with
highest amounts in the Adirondacks and northern Champlain Valley.
This will be followed by drizzle and lighter, more scattered rain
showers focused on terrain today and tonight. Because of extended
long term dry weather, much of the rain is being absorbed by the
soil. However, enough runoff is expected to lead to some small rises
in area rivers and streams, and poor drainage ponding on roadways
has already occurred. As drier and colder air flows into the region
tonight, temperatures are expected to drop dramatically into the
upper 20s to lower 40s by early Thursday morning. This, paired with
north-northwesterly breezes gusting 15-30 mph due to a low level jet
on the back end of our rain system, will make for apparent
temperatures in the mid 20s to mid 30s when it`s time to head to
school or work. This will be some of the chilliest air we`ve had in
a while. Thursday during the day, high pressure should decrease
winds, but temperatures will still be slightly below average for
this time of year with widespread highs in the 50s.
KEY MESSAGE 2: Another frontal system is headed for our forecast area
Thursday night through Friday night. Model agreement is exceptional
for a large swath of rain to overspread the region late Thursday
night and early Friday morning out ahead of a strengthening low
pressure system. A vigorous shortwave will dig over the western
Great Lakes, merging with a frontal system over the Midwest to help
intensify low pressure to our west. This storm will rapidly move
northeastward, passing near or right over our region (most likely
along the St. Lawrence Valley) Friday afternoon and crossing into
northern Maine Friday evening. Precipitation may be impacted by some
our topography. A strong southwesterly low level jet will produce
downsloping in the northern Champlain Valley, while our western
slopes have a little bit of a boost in rainfall amounts. The near
surface winds will also likely be strong out of the south on Friday,
though rain could limit mixing. Any breaks in precipitation should
support 20-30 MPH localized gusts, higher on summits closer to a
strong low level jet. Lake Champlain should also see higher gusts in
southerly channeling.
A cold front will sweep through the area Friday night, sharply
lowering temperatures 10 to 15 degrees from Friday evening to
Saturday morning. Temperatures will likely dip below freezing for
most if not all locations across the area with only those near Lake
Champlain and immediately near the St. Lawrence River staying just
above freezing. As temperatures fall, snow levels will also drop,
falling to 500-1000ft agl by Saturday. It will be a race against dry
air for the temperatures fall at the same time the atmosphere dries
out. If there is some overlap in saturated air and cold air Friday
night or Saturday morning, we`re more likely to see some snowflakes
or rain/snow mix in the Champlain Valley. Snow looks highly likely
in the higher terrain with temperatures in the 20s. Snowfall impacts
will be minimal with road and ground temperatures well above
freezing, and with only marginal surface temperatures outside of the
highest elevations, snow will likely be of a wet character, with
minor accumulation only on the highest elevations and mainly on
vegetation only. In addition to the precipitation Friday night into
Saturday, winds will turn to the northwest with better confidence in
stronger winds Saturday due to a lack of precipitation limitations
that existed during the day Friday. With an influx of cold northwest
air, lapse rates will quickly steepen with strong mixing late Friday
night and early Saturday morning. Highest wind gusts will be
widespread 30-40 mph with gusts above 40-45 mph on summits,
potentially as high as 45-60 mph. While we don`t anticipate needing
a Wind Advisory (for gusts greater than 46 mph), trends will need to
be watched closely going forward.
KEY MESSAGE 3: Ridging will start to build over the region for the
latter half of the weekend, keeping us under northwest flow. Can`t
rule out a few stray showers over the higher terrain early Sunday,
but overall expect a dry though chilly second half of the weekend.
The dry weather will persist through mid week as high pressure keeps
hold over the Northeast CONUS. Temperatures will warm through the
period, with highs to be in the upper 50s/low 60s by Tuesday.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Through 12Z Thursday...A mix of IFR/MVFR to prevail through the
TAF period. Most sites are starting out at IFR/LIFR this morning
due to low ceilings and patchy fog/mist/drizzle. Exceptions are
RUT/MSS where conditions are currently MVFR. Low level moisture
will stay abundant today into tonight, but expect ceilings
will lift to MVFR at all terminals except SLK by 15z. Visibility
3-5SM in fog/mist at higher terrain sites through that same time
frame, with another round possible this evening. Ceilings could
lower back to IFR for a time this evening as well, but moisture
profiles indicate improvement again late in the TAF period as
drier air tries to spill into the region. N/NW (SW at SLK/MSS) winds
generally 5-10 kt through 00z Thu, trending more toward NW
around 10 kt with localized gusts to 20 kt thereafter.
Outlook...
Thursday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Thursday Night: VFR. Definite SHRA.
Friday: Mainly MVFR, with areas IFR possible. Definite SHRA.
Friday Night: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Windy with
gusts to 30 kt. Likely SHRA, Chance SHSN.
Saturday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Windy with gusts
to 30 kt. Chance SHSN.
Saturday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight
chance SHSN.
Sunday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. NO SIG WX.
&&
.MARINE...
Periods of rough lake conditions are anticipated this week into
the weekend. Periods of concern will be Wednesday night and
again Friday into Saturday as a couple of fronts move through
the region. Overall, it will not be a pleasant week to venture
out on Lake Champlain, especially in smaller watercraft.
&&
.CLIMATE...
On Saturday, daily low maximum temperatures are likely. Current
records are indicated below at some climate sites in our
region:
Record Low Maximum Temperatures:
October 17:
KBTV: 42/1970
KPBG: 44/2015
KSLK: 36/1970
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.
&&
$$
WHAT HAS CHANGED...Storm
DISCUSSION...Storm/Hastings
AVIATION...Hastings
MARINE...Kutikoff/Storm
CLIMATE...Kutikoff/Storm
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