613
FXUS61 KBTV 292341
AFDBTV
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
741 PM EDT Thu Oct 29 2026
.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
As of 303 PM EDT Thursday...
No significant changes
&&
.KEY MESSAGES...
As of 303 PM EDT Thursday...
1. Increased fire weather concerns through this weekend.
2. Mostly dry and seasonable conditions continue through the
weekend.
3. A weak cool front early next week will slow a warming trend
during another extended quiet weather period.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
As of 303 PM EDT Thursday...
KEY MESSAGE 1: Breezy winds and lower relative humidity values will
lead to increased fire weather concerns over the next few days,
especially given the plentiful dry leaves serving as fuel. However,
Red Flag conditions are not expected. Wind gusts will generally peak
in the 20 to 25 mph range tomorrow, with some higher gusts up to 30
mph possible. The gusts will be relatively uniform, with slightly
higher gusts in the higher terrain. Minimum relative humidity values
will generally be between 40 to 55 percent tomorrow. Heading into
the weekend, minimum relative humidity values should drop into the
30 to 45 percent range, but winds look to be much lighter. A weak
front moves through the region later today and tonight, bringing
some light rain showers, though a wetting rainfall is not expected.
Persistent cloud cover tomorrow outside the far southern Champlain
Valley and Lower Connecticut River Valley will help limit concerns a
bit.
KEY MESSAGE 2: After the warm day today, a cold front comes through
tonight and into early Friday. A few showers are possible across
northern New York and the higher elevations of northern Vermont but
with dry air aloft and weak forcing, they will be brief and only
lead to a couple hundreths of an inch of rain locally. The highest
amounts are expected in the northern Greens and the Adirondacks.
Strong cold air advection will occur tomorrow with clouds in the
typical upslope areas. A few lingering sprinkles and flurries will
be possible in the higher terrain Friday. Surface high pressure
builds overhead into the weekend, leading to mostly sunny skies and
moderating temperatures. The Halloween forecast looks great with
clear skies, light winds and temperatures quickly dropping from the
50s into the 30s during the evening. However, despite clear skies,
any added ambiance from the moon will mostly be missing as it was
full a couple days ago and will rise around 10:45 Halloween evening.
KEY MESSAGE 3: The weather pattern Monday through Wednesday will be
fairly similar to what we have seen recently favoring mostly dry
conditions but with no big area of high pressure overhead. Guidance
has become a bit more consistent with the idea of another cold front
slipping in from the north Monday afternoon or evening. Two of the
four (instead of one of four as it was 24 hours ago) ensemble
clusters/scenarios indicate this, and consistent with the latest run
of the ECMWF now in line with this idea.
This boundary will bring chances for very light rain and a cloudier
period with reinforcement of seasonably cool air. Chances for
appreciable rain of reaching even 0.1" in the wetter scenarios is
only about 15-40% in the Monday night-Tuesday morning period as the
boundary sags slowly southward; near the International Border and
higher terrain areas are where chances are sharply greater,
including about a 70-85% chance of measurable rain.
Overall the model spread for high temperatures on Tuesday has
decreased a bit, especially for southern portions of the region
where the front will have less of an influence as it washes out.
Generally our northern areas may trend a bit cooler from current
high temperatures but a sharply colder air mass is favored to stay
to our northeast.
A warming trend is expected during the middle of next week with as
strongly amplifying upper air pattern expected. Temperatures are
favored to be unusually warm to our west in the eastern Great Lakes
region on Wednesday, trending that way for northern New York and
western portions of Vermont where high temperatures are most likely
to be more than 10 degrees above normal. The position of high
pressure to our east may favor southeasterly flow in eastern Vermont
that would temper warming in this part of our region. The gradient
flow will also lead to a similarly mild overnight conditions.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Through 00Z Saturday...VFR conditions are expected to prevail for the
next 24 hours. The only exception would be brief MVFR
ceilingswith any light -shra overnight. Brisk SSW winds of
earlier today will become variable AOB 6kts overnight and
gradually shift WNW with fropa. WNW winds will increase 8 to 10
kts with gusts to 20 kts during Friday.
Outlook...
Friday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. NO SIG WX.
Saturday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Saturday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Sunday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Sunday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Monday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Monday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
&&
.MARINE...
Strong southerly winds will continue through the evening,
sustained in the 20-30 KT range on the broad waters. The bays
will be a little lighter but still elevated. Winds become
westerly after midnight, with winds quickly decreasing to around
and below 15 KT. Winds become northwesterly during the day
tomorrow and increase back into the 15-25 KT range. Waves will
peak this evening in the 1-3 foot range, before dropping into
0-1 foot range tonight. They increase back into the 1-3 foot
tomorrow afternoon but this time with the highest ones in the
southern waters instead of the northern waters.
&&
.EQUIPMENT...
Routine observations from KSLK ASOS are unavailable until
further notice. While the site is operating, it is not able to
disseminate observations normally at this time. Technicians are
aware of the issue, but time of return to service is unknown.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.
&&
$$
WHAT HAS CHANGED...Myskowski
DISCUSSION...Kutikoff/Myskowski
AVIATION...SLW
MARINE...Myskowski
EQUIPMENT...NWS BTV
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