898
FXUS61 KBTV 080702
AFDBTV
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
202 AM EST Sun Nov 8 2026
.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
As of 138 AM EST Sunday...
No significant changes were made with this forecast update.
&&
.KEY MESSAGES...
As of 200 AM EST Sunday...
1. Cooler and unsettled weather will persist through the first
half of this week with rounds of showers expected.
2. Unsettled weather continues through the end of the week,
likely trending cooler by next weekend.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
As of 138 AM EST Sunday...
KEY MESSAGE 1: Precipitation will continue to slowly wind down through
the early morning hours as an upper level low pinwheels away to the
east. While most of the precipitation is falling as rain or drizzle,
temperatures in the higher elevations and portions of the Northeast
Kingdom are in the low to mid 30s; our sensor on Mt Mansfield at
just short of 4000 ft is reading 28F as of 1 am. Therefore expect
these areas are seeing periods of snow, though ground temperatures
should be warm enough to preclude any accumulation below 2500 ft.
Cameras on some of the higher elevation roads in the Northeast
Kingdom courtesy of VTrans do appear to show a bit of snow
falling with no accumulation noted, though it`s difficult to
discern for sure due to darkness and thick fog. These lingering
showers will taper to an end by mid to late morning or so,
allowing for a dry Sunday afternoon. Highs will be in the low
40s to low 50s, with a bit of a brisk wind at 5 to 15 mph with
local gusts to around 20 mph.
Additional rounds of showers are expected then through the first
half of this week as we remain under the influence of a large upper
level low gyrating over eastern Canada. Multiple shortwaves rotating
around the base of this low will pivot overhead, keeping the weather
unsettled over the next few days. Much like our current system, much
of the shower activity will fall as rain, especially during the
daylight hours, but some snow will be possible across the higher
terrain and portions of the Adirondacks/Northeast Kingdom,
especially overnight. Any accumulation will be minimal below 2500
ft, but we`ll be watching closely to see if Mt Mansfield is able to
break the record for latest 1" of snowfall (Nov 9). Highs will be in
the low/mid 40s to low 50s each day, with lows falling into the
upper 20s to mid/upper 30s. Winds will remain on the breezy side,
but not strong enough to cause any significant impacts.
KEY MESSAGE 2: The large Hudson Bay low will continue to dominate the
weather across our area, bringing multiple shortwaves into region
through the weekend. Wednesday should see lingering, terrain driven
mix of rain and snow showers throughout the day. Models on Thursday
remain torn on the timing and placement of warm front ahead of the
developing low in the Ohio Valley. The solutions could bring a rain-
snow mix, or keep things further south and keep our area relatively
dry during the day. For Friday and the weekend, models are still
keying in on significant closed low swinging down through the Mid-
Atlantic region and then up the coastline, bringing several shots of
rain and rain/snow mix over the weekend. The current runs are
leaning towards a wetter solution for our region which could bring
the first significant snow of the season. The details should come
into better focus over the next few days.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Through 06Z Monday...Low ceilings, rain, and mist will persist
overnight, resulting in MVFR, IFR, and LIFR conditions through
14Z Sunday. Highest chance of persistent LIFR ceilings will
remain at KMPV, KRUT, and KSLK, where ceilings are observed
ceilings are 300 to 400 ft AGL and no improvement is expected
until late morning Sunday. Other TAF sites are starting off the
TAF period with mainly MVFR ceilings, though lowering of
ceilings to IFR with occasional periods of LIFR is expected
during the overnight hours. Visibilities will also decrease at
times at all TAF sites overnight due to periods of rain and
mist, though ceilings will be the main factor driving the lowest
flight conditions.
Showers will scatter out and ceilings will slowly lift after
14Z. However, improvement will be slow, especially at higher
elevation TAF sites where IFR conditions could persist into the
early afternoon. By late afternoon and evening Sunday, ceilings
areawide will lift to MVFR/VFR levels.
Winds will remain from the north generally 6-12 knots, with some
occasional gusts 15 to 18 knots.
Outlook...
Monday: Mainly MVFR, with local VFR possible. Chance SHRA.
Monday Night: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. Chance RA.
Tuesday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance RA.
Veterans Day: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. Chance RA.
Wednesday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance SN,
Slight chance RA.
Thursday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Slight chance RA.
&&
.MARINE...
A Lake Wind Advisory remains in effect through early this
morning. Northwest winds of 15 to 25 kt will continue through
the early morning hours, remaining strongest across the broad
and southern portions of the lake. Winds will subside to 5 to 15
kt and remain so much of the day today.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.
&&
$$
WHAT HAS CHANGED...Hastings
DISCUSSION...Hastings/Verasamy
AVIATION...Duell/Verasamy
MARINE...NWS BTV
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