633
FXUS61 KBTV 020554
AFDBTV
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
1254 AM EST Mon Nov 2 2026
.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
As of 124 PM EST Sunday...
Confidence has increased slightly in light rain showers Tuesday
and Tuesday night. Confidence also continues to increase in
warm temperatures on Wednesday, and highs across the St.
Lawrence Valley of New York are expected to reach or surpass
daily records.
&&
.KEY MESSAGES...
As of 124 PM EST Sunday...
1. Temperatures increase this week, and there is the potential
for some rain showers Tuesday and Tuesday night.
2. A late week cold front will bring several days of rain
&&
.DISCUSSION...
As of 124 PM EST Sunday...
KEY MESSAGE 1: High 1034 mb pressure centered over the Northeast this
afternoon will shift southeastward over to the mid Atlantic coast,
drifting offshore over the next few days. This will turn flow more
southerly to southwesterly across northern New York and Vermont,
resulting in above average temperatures this week. Highs Monday and
Tuesday afternoons will be widespread 60s. Lows fall only into the
40s tonight and Monday night. A tilted mid to upper level ridge will
be positioned to our west through about Tuesday, moving eastwards
this week. Depending on the positioning of an upper level vort max
and surface boundaries, there could be just enough forcing and lift
to produce some clouds and light rain, mainly along the
international border and on high terrain on Tuesday and Tuesday
night. The odd rain shower is possible Monday night in the Northeast
Kingdom, but generally best convergence is north of the border at
this time. Deterministic model solutions continue to vary widely on
the position of these features, so uncertainty remains relatively
high, even on Tuesday and Tuesday night. Highest chance of some
measurable precipitation looks to be Tuesday afternoon and evening
with 35-55% chance of rain for about the northern half of the
forecast area, lower chances south. Regardless, temperatures
continue to look warm for this time of year heading into mid and
late week with highs likely reaching the upper 60s and lower 70s by
Wednesday afternoon as southerly to southwesterly winds advect in
even more warmth and 925 mb level temps climb to 11-16 C. Lows are
expected to fall into the mid 40s to mid 50s Tuesday and Wednesday
nights.
KEY MESSAGE 2: Confidence continues to increase that a relatively
strong low pressure and associated cold front will sweep through
northern New York and Vermont by the end of the week. A closed low
will be over the Upper Great Lakes by Wednesday. While timing is
still a bit uncertain, we should see channeled flow keeping
winds over Lake Champlain gusting to near 30mph on Thursday with
rain overtaking the CWA on Friday ahead of the low. As the cold
front sweeps through, we`ll see high temperatures drop from the
upper 60s Thursday down to the upper 40s by Saturday. A number
of model solutions have the system interacting with another low
off the Atlantic Seaboard, causing the low to partially cutoff
from the main flow and allowing a slight chance of rain to
persist through next Sunday.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Through 06Z Tuesday...VFR will continue. A thin cloud deck
around 6000 feet agl has developed with all but RUT currently
seeing these ceilings. Expectations are for these clouds to
scatter after sunrise but with additional higher clouds spilling
in from the northwest for the remainder of the period. A non-
zero chance of showers skirting the International Border is not
enough to bring mention of rain in TAF at this time to EFK,
where conditions would remain VFR with only light precipitation.
Winds will be somewhat erratic through 12Z, with some sites
seeing a modest low level jet occasionally gust to the surface.
At sites like PBG and EFK, winds will be largely be decoupled
from the surface, leading to westerly LLWS through about 14Z.
Otherwise, terrain driven winds overnight will be followed by
S/SW winds mainly 6-12 kt, and then again subsiding somewhat
towards 00Z.
Outlook...
Tuesday: VFR. Chance SHRA.
Tuesday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA.
Wednesday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Thursday: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. Likely RA.
Thursday Night: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Likely RA.
Friday: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Chance RA.
&&
.CLIMATE...
Temperatures could approach record highs on November 4th, with
the greatest chance of surpassing the record at KMSS.
Site | Record | Forecast
KMSS | 71 (2022) | 72
KBTV | 73 (1982) | 70
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.
&&
$$
WHAT HAS CHANGED...Storm
DISCUSSION...Storm/Langbauer
AVIATION...Kutikoff
CLIMATE...NWS BTV
|
