661
FXUS61 KBTV 041752
AFDBTV
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
1252 PM EST Wed Nov 4 2026
.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
As of 223 AM EST Wednesday...
Today`s high temperatures were slightly increased.
&&
.KEY MESSAGES...
As of 223 AM EST Wednesday...
1. Near record high temperatures are expected today with mostly
sunny conditions and limited, localized fire weather concerns.
2. Showers are expected on Thursday and possibly linger into
Thursday night, then mainly dry weather will follow for Friday.
No impactful weather is expected.
3. Periodic showers are possible over the weekend into early
next week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
As of 223 AM EST Wednesday...
KEY MESSAGE 1: Record high temperatures for the date remain on
track for today; see Climate section of the forecast discussion
for details. Progged 925 millibar temperatures of 16 to 18
Celsius, near climatological maximum values, supports high
temperatures in the low to mid 70s with dry adiabatic lapse
rates across our valley locations. The most unusually extreme
temperatures are favored for the Adirondacks and northeastern
Vermont, where the Extreme Forecast Index most recent run shows
a high confidence of near record high temperatures. This has
trended more extreme with time, so we have used the 90th
percentile temperature guidance for high temperatures. The
resulting forecast highs look consistent with recent
verification of observed temperatures and for a scenario with
sunshine and warm air advection from the southwest. Relative
humidity will remain fairly moderate based on guidance and
observed values upstream in the Midwest, putting a likely
minimum in the 40% range. A few wind gusts may exceed 25 MPH
this morning with channeled flow in the Champlain Valley, but
winds aloft generally look too light to cause much concern even
if boundary layer mixing is deeper than modeled.
KEY MESSAGE 2: A weakening cold front will put an end to our
dry and very warm weather. Two rounds of showers appears on the
docket for Thursday, with the first round being relatively
disordered showers tied to a surge of anomalous moisture sliding
northeastward through our region. This precipitation looks
strongly forced with relatively deep moisture such that rain
chances will be nearly certain for at least a brief period of
time during the daytime hours. Towards evening, while moisture
will be more limited, sufficiently steep lapse rates to yield a
ribbon of instability and a chance of loosely organized showers
that will track to the east across northern Vermont Thursday
night. As the front exits/washes out to our east, think flow
will be light enough amidst rich near surface moisture to
support some patchy fog and drizzle regardless of how widespread
these evening showers wind up being. The lack of a wind shift
will keep temperatures and humidity above normal into Friday.
However, conditions look mainly dry with our region sitting
between an inverted trough to our east and an incoming upper
level low to our west. Most likely rainfall amounts being
offered are mainly 0.1" to 0.33", but with convective nature of
some of the rain, footprints will be quite variable.
KEY MESSAGE 3: Upper level troughing will likely settle over
eastern Canada and the Northeast as the longwave pattern is
favored to stall Saturday through the weekend. Model consensus
points to multiple rounds of rainfall associated with upper
level low overhead and potential for surface low pressure to
gyre and pivot back westward early next week while a series of
troughs move through the base of the longwave overhead. The
result will be for more shower chances Saturday onward with
temperatures cooling back into the 50s and upper 40s. Elevation
dependent snowfall could occur with the cold pool expected to be
over the region. It`s feasible that there could be some lower
elevation pellet showers should the troughs be more energetic as
they move through. This pattern will favor cooler overnight
lows as well with lower elevations in the 30s and mid/upper 20s
above 1500-2000ft through Monday. There are some indications
that reinforcing cold air may occur by Tuesday possibly pushing
temperatures lower Tuesday night.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Through 18Z Thursday...Conditions will primarily be VFR at all
sites. Southerly breezes are expected to be around 10 mph with
some gusts 15 to 20 kts at times. Highest gusts will be at PBG
and MSS where flow is more channeled and could top out around 25
kts. Winds decrease after 20Z with clouds increasing and
lowering overnight. Showers will begin moving into the St
Lawrence Valley after 06Z as a front approaches. Have included
6SM -SHRA as rain spreads southwest to northeast across our
area between 12-18z.
Outlook...
Thursday Night: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Chance SHRA,
Patchy BR.
Friday: VFR. Slight chance RA.
Friday Night: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Chance RA.
Saturday: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Chance RA.
Saturday Night: Mainly MVFR, with areas IFR possible. Chance RA.
Sunday: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Slight chance RA.
Sunday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Slight chance
RA.
Monday: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. Chance RA.
&&
.CLIMATE...
As of 223 AM EST Wednesday...
Extreme warmth for this time of year is likely today. As a result,
some daily record temperatures may be set, with the greatest
chance at KMSS.
High Temperatures:
Site | Record | Forecast
KMSS | 71 (2022) | 75
KBTV | 73 (1982) | 73
KPBG | 72 (1990) | 72
KMPV | 72 (2022) | 74
KSLK | 74 (1944) | 73
SJBV1 | 73 (1990) | 75
Low Temperatures also in jeopardy:
Today:
Site | Record | Forecast
KMSS | 51 (1975) | 55
KBTV | 54 (2022) | 56
Tomorrow:
KBTV: Record is 60 in 2022
KPBG: Record is 50 in 2024
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.
&&
$$
WHAT HAS CHANGED...Kutikoff
DISCUSSION...Kutikoff/Boyd
AVIATION...Neiles
CLIMATE...Kutikoff
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