469
FXUS61 KBTV 150621
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
221 AM EDT Wed Oct 15 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Moisture and cloud cover will shift eastward today with cool,
breezy, and dry conditions prevailing through much of the
remainder of the week. Northerly winds will draw gusty winds
today and tomorrow, particularly in the Champlain Valley. We
will trend warmer for the weekend, with our next chance for
widespread rain not arriving until the end of the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 217 AM EDT Wednesday...A cold front will continue to move to
the southeast across the area this morning. The front is moving a
bit slower than models have initialized it, with low level moisture
remaining and pooling up against the western slopes of the Greens
and Adirondacks. Low level stratus and some patchy fog should
continue into the early morning hours when the dry air trailing the
front should be able to scour out the low level moisture. Today we
will be sandwiched between a weakening high to our west and an
occluding low off the Massachusetts Coast. An upper trough colocated
with the occluding low will pivot across Maine keeping breezy
north/northwest winds and clouds in place for at last the beginning
of today. Overcast skies for most of the day can be expected in the
Northeast Kingdom which will be the last to see any clearing. Clouds
will clear out fairly quickly across northern New York which will
help temperatures reach into the mid 50s, with upper 40s to low 50s
in Vermont. Even though some locations will see peaks of sun, strong
caa will help usher in cooler air keeping temperatures low. In
addition to the cooler and drier air, winds between the two air
masses will be rather breezy today in the Champlain Valley and the
rest of Vermont. Northerly winds will gust up to 20 to 25 mph across
most of Vermont, with perhaps some localized higher gusts on the
western slopes of the Greens and Champlain Valley from channeling
effects. Winds on Lake Champlain could gust up to 30 mph at times
which will lead to the need for a Lake Wind Advisory this afternoon.

Winds will continue to be breezy tonight with winds 15 to 20 mph,
though Lake Champlain winds should remain fairly sustained. Overnight
lows will be chilly with portions of the Adirondacks dipping to the
low to mid 20s with some clearing possible. Some radiative cooling
could take place, but with the breezy winds hanging around,
efficient radiative cooling does not look favorable. This same
process should limit any frost formation in the Champlain Valley
where the climatological growing season continues for another week.
Vermont should cool into the low to mid 30s.

Thursday will be another breezy and chilly day with daytime highs
only reaching the upper 40s to low 50s in Vermont. The St. Lawrence
should be able to reach the mid 50s with more clearing expected.
Dewpoints will continue to dry out from the day prior leading to low
relative humidity values in the 30-40% range. Some critical fire
weather concerns are possible, particularly in northern New York and
the Champlain Valley Thursday with low RH values and gusty winds
expected. Similar to Wednesday, Thursday will feature breezy to
gusty winds which should be slightly higher than Thursday as high
pressure continue to nose east. Otherwise expected a partly to
mainly sunny day with the most clouds across northeast Vermont

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 217 AM EDT Wednesday...Gusty winds from the day on Thursday
should taper off Thursday night as high pressure begins to crest
over the region. A cold night is expected Thursday night with
lighter winds and more clear skies than nights prior. Decent
conditions for radiative cooling look favorable, especially over
northern New York. Some frost will be possible in the Champlain
Valley where the growing season will continue for another week.
Overnight lows in the Adirondacks will push the low 20s, with upper
20s to low 30s elsewhere. Deterministic guidance for Saranac Lake
has a considerable cold skewness with the operational NBM suggesting
22 degrees for a low, but the 95th-percentile suggesting a low
of 18. Meaning, the deterministic NBM is near the
99th-percentile for a low. All in all, considerably cooler air
is possible under good radiative cooling conditions Thursday
night.

Friday will generally be a clear and calm day with ridging
continuing over the region. Winds will be on the lighter side, but
could still be a bit breezy up to 15 mph in the Champlain Valley.
Temperatures will still be chilly with highs remaining in the low to
mid 50s. Some cloud cover will move into the St. Lawrence Valley
ahead of our next system this weekend later in the day Friday, but
most of the area should stay clear with ample sunshine.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 217 AM EDT Wednesday...Friday night and Saturday we will have a
ridge of surface high pressure over the region, keeping the weather
dry and relatively quiet. Pressure gradient increases Saturday night
into Sunday ahead of next approaching low pressure and frontal
system which will track from the Great Lakes towards the St Lawrence
valley, and then north of our forecast area. After brisk southerly
flow on Sunday, precipitation will spread into our area from west to
east on Sunday night through Monday. Then we`ll have some wrap
around moisture and continuing light showers Monday night. Our
weather will then turn quieter from Tuesday onward with a few
chances for light showers throughout next week, but no bigger storms
on the horizon. Sunday looks to be the warmest of the period with
brisk southerly flow pushing temperatures up to around 70.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Through 06Z Thursday...Complicated aviation forecast with some
BR and FG in place across the region through the early morning
today. Conditions vary from 10SM with low ceilings down to less
than 1/4 mile. After 12z conditions should improve as winds also
pick up out of the north northwest following frontal passage.
At the moment the worst conditions are present at BTV, EFK and
MPV, followed by RUT and SLK. MSS and PBG are VFR.

Outlook...

Thursday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Thursday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Friday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Friday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Saturday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Saturday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA.
Sunday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Danzig
NEAR TERM...Danzig
SHORT TERM...Danzig
LONG TERM...Neiles
AVIATION...Neiles