990
FXUS61 KBTV 081124
AFDBTV
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
724 AM EDT Thu Oct 8 2026
.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
As of 311 AM EDT Thursday...
No significant changes.
&&
.KEY MESSAGES...
As of 311 AM EDT Thursday...
1. Unsettled pattern prevails through Friday with several
rounds of showers expected, with greatest concentration over the
higher terrain.
2. Cooler and drier weather develops late Friday into Saturday,
with patchy frost possible in the Champlain Valley on Saturday
morning.
3. Remnants of tropical system to bring rain to parts of our
region.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
As of 311 AM EDT Thursday...
KEY MESSAGE 1: An upper level low slowly builds into the region
today and tomorrow, bringing several rounds of showers as
shortwaves pivot around the longwave trough. Instability will
reach its maximum today and some of the stronger showers will
likely contain thunder. Pea sized hail will be possible, and
maybe graupel in the higher terrain. The highest chances for
showers will be farther north where the better dynamics and
coldest air aloft will be. A lowering inversion heading into
Friday should prevent any thunder chances, with instability only
reaching up to around 10,000 feet and not significantly
surpassing -10 Celsius. However, the airmass will continue to
cool and temperatures at the summits are expected to fall below
freezing on Friday, so a few flurries/snow showers will be
possible in the mountains, especially farther north. Snow levels
look to drop to around 3,500-4,000 feet. Flow remains unblocked
heading through Friday as the inversion will stay well above
summit level.
KEY MESSAGE 2: Surface high pressure builds in for the weekend,
leading to a couple classic fall days. Highs will be in the 50s
and 60s with mostly sunny skies. Radiational cooling conditions
will become somewhat favorable for Friday night, but some
lingering boundary flow may prevent the most efficient
temperature decreases. The boundary layer looks to decouple at
least in the later part of the night though. Frost formation is
expected across most of the region, but it looks more uncertain
in the Champlain Valley, the only area left in the growing
season. Temperatures there will be marginal and winds there will
likely hold on the longest.
KEY MESSAGE 3: The remnants of Isaias will bring some rain to
southern portions of our forecast area Sunday night into Monday.
Not expecting any strong winds with this system. Northern
extent of precipitation is uncertain. For now have highest
chances for precipitation from Saranac Lake NY to Montpelier VT
and areas south of there.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Through 12Z Friday...An area of isolated showers is currently
moving across the area, and could potentially lower conditions
briefly to MVFR. Additional isolated to scattered showers are
expected again this afternoon, with the best chances to impact
MSS. Included a PROB30 group there for brief MVFR visibility
with showers. Otherwise, winds remain brisk out of the south and
will become more westerly during the day today.
Outlook...
Friday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
Friday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Saturday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Saturday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Sunday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Sunday Night: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Chance SHRA.
Columbus Day: Mainly MVFR, with areas IFR possible. Slight chance
SHRA.
&&
.MARINE...
A Lake Wind Advisory continues with sustained southerly winds
between 20-30 KT. Winds will turn southwesterly and then
westerly this morning, and will then drop into the 10-20 KT
range. Wave heights will drop from the 1-3 foot range to below 2
feet after this wind shift occurs.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.
&&
$$
WHAT HAS CHANGED...Myskowski
DISCUSSION...Myskowski/Neiles
AVIATION...Neiles
MARINE...Taber
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