793
FXUS61 KBTV 151827
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
227 PM EDT Mon Sep 15 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will continue to bring warming temperatures and dry
weather conditions to the region this week. A cold front moving
southeastward out of Canada will usher in a cooler air mass for
Friday and the upcoming weekend. However, measurable precipitation
is generally not expected with this cold front, allowing drought
conditions to persist across our region.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 227 PM EDT Monday...The prolonged stretch of dry weather will
continue across the region as surface high pressure and upper level
ridging continue to remain the dominant weather feature. Another
night with clear skies and radiational fog is expected with the high
continuing to crest overhead. Overnight low temperatures will drop
in the 40s areawide, with lowers 50s in the Champlain Valley.

Tomorrow will be another day with dry and sunny weather. High
temperatures tomorrow will be a few degrees warmer than today, with
highs climbing into the upper 70s to near 80 within some of the
broader valleys. Low temperatures will once again drop in the 40s
and 50s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 227 PM EDT Monday...High pressure will remain the dominant
weather feature as we head towards the middle of the week, with the
dry conditions persisting. Temperatures will continue to moderate as
we head through the week, with highs in the upper 70s and low 80s
across the region. Light winds and clear skies will likely prevail,
with more radiational fog possible Wednesday night.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 227 PM EDT Monday...The rex block will continue through
Thursday, before a potent trough digs down from the north on Friday
and breaks it up. It will cause the cutoff low that has been
lingering off the Mid-Atlantic to rejoin the circulation. However,
the trough will continue to dig south as it pushes off over the
Atlantic over the weekend, and ridging will amplify to the west and
move into the region. A cold front will come through on Friday but
it will be moisture starved. While a few showers are possible, the
strongest forcing will be well to the east and dry air in place will
help evaporate what falls. Significant rain is not expected and
GEFS/EPS/CAN ensemble probabilities of more than a tenth of an inch
are less than thirty percent in the highest areas, and those
probabilities are probably on the high side. Temperatures will rise
well above climatological normals on Thursday, with temperatures in
the 80s expected outside the higher terrain. More seasonable or even
slightly below average temperatures arrive for the weekend, with
frost potential outside the broad valleys. After the front moves
through Friday, gusty winds and low relative humidities could lead
to fire weather concerns. While humidities will likely approach and
exceed critical values on Saturday, winds will be much lighter.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Through 18Z Tuesday...VFR conditions will persist through the
evening. Patchy fog will develop later in the night and it will
reach MPV and SLK. It is a little more uncertain whether it reaches
EFK but it is still likely to form for a period of time. There is a
low chance that it reaches RUT or BTV, maybe around 20 percent. Any
fog lifts soon after sunrise and VFR conditions will persist for the
rest of the day. Winds will generally be light and variable/terrain
driven, though at some locations the directions will favor northerly
components during the day today and tomorrow.

Outlook...

Tuesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Thursday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Thursday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Slight
chance SHRA.
Friday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. NO SIG WX.
Friday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Saturday: VFR. NO SIG WX.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Kremer
NEAR TERM...Kremer
SHORT TERM...Kremer
LONG TERM...Myskowski
AVIATION...Myskowski