968
FXUS61 KBTV 081801
AFDBTV
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
201 PM EDT Tue Sep 8 2026
.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
As of 216 AM EDT Tuesday...
Forecast precipitation amounts have increased slightly for the
Wednesday into Thursday morning system, and the arrival of
precipitation continues to trend earlier in the day Wednesday than
the previous forecast.
&&
.KEY MESSAGES...
As of 216 AM EDT Tuesday...
1. Mostly dry and seasonable weather is expected today and
tonight, then more widespread precipitation arrives Wednesday into
Wednesday night.
2. High pressure will bring another stretch of dry and pleasant
weather to start the weekend.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
As of 216 AM EDT Tuesday...
KEY MESSAGE 1: A dying cold front will come through early this morning
and bring a few light showers, but weak forcing and dry low levels
will minimize the impacts. Ridging will become more established and
dominate the synoptic pattern going into Wednesday, continuing the
quiet and relatively seasonable to above normal stretch. Overall,
highs will be in the 70s to lower 80s through Thursday. Lows tonight
will be in the mid 40s to lower 60s, increasing to the upper 50s to
mid 60s Wednesday night with the arrival of a warm frontal boundary
attached to a deepening low pressure system in Canada. While warm
air advection will bring a more humid airmass into the region, there
will not be enough time for a fully tropical airmass to become
established. Rain arrives throughout the day Wednesday in northern
areas as a warm front pushes through, though it appears to lack much
elevated instability, so the rain should just be stratiform. The
center of the low will pass by well to the north of our area, and
the best dynamics should miss the region. Therefore, this will limit
instability as the system passes by. The highest instability will be
across the St. Lawrence Valley where the warmer airmass has the most
time to become established. Dew points there should briefly reach
the mid 60s to around 70 and a few rumbles of thunder are possible
there. The cold front passes through Wednesday night into early
Thursday, but the warm sector never looks to become fully
established in the region, so most convection should remain to the
southwest. St. Lawrence County and southern Vermont look to be the
places that may see more convective enhancement, while the rest of
the region should mostly see synoptically forced rain. However, if
the trend of earlier precipitation and a faster system continues, we
may see more availability of instability on Wednesday for more
widespread thunderstorms. A strong southwesterly low-level jet will
reach the 40-55 KT range at 850 mb Wednesday and Wednesday night,
causing downsloping in the typical spots like the Champlain Valley,
which could limit rainfall totals. Overall expected totals range in
the 0.15 to 0.75 inch range for most places, with some higher totals
locally along the spine of the Green Mountains and Adirondacks. This
jet will also lead to widespread gusts in the 20-30 mph range, with
locally higher gusts, particularly on summits. Then Thursday, winds
should stay elevated in cold air advection out of the west and
northwest.
KEY MESSAGE 2: High pressure will build into the region towards the end
of the week into the weekend, bringing a stretch of dry and pleasant
weather. Daytime high temperatures on Friday will generally be in
the upper 60s and low 70s, with warmer temperatures expected for
Saturday and Sunday in the 70s to near 80 as the ridging shifts
eastward leading to southerly flow across the region. Ideal
radiational cooling conditions are expected, especially Friday night
into Saturday morning with the high pressure overhead. Overnight
lows are expected to drop into the 40s, with some of the cold
hollows dropping into the mid/upper 30s while locations near Lake
Champlain will stay in the 50s. While dry weather will persist
through much of the weekend, precipitation chances will increase
through the day on Sunday with a shortwave trough pushing through,
although there is still plenty of uncertainty regarding this feature.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Through 18Z Wednesday...A weak cold front has passed south of the
region with winds light trending northerly at less than 8 knots
through the next few hours.
Some lingering MVFR ceilings are present at MSS, MPV, and SLK,
which will trend VFR with a combination of scattering and
lifting of lowest ceilings as high pressure builds in. This area
of high pressure along with relatively high dew points will
support possible fog development, particularly at SLK and MPV.
Some increasing cloud cover overnight ahead of our next frontal
system to the west is anticipated, which makes the development
and duration of fog more uncertain than preferred. As such, have
only used BR primarily in the 06Z to 09Z period; the next TAF
issuance will need to reevaluate the chances for fog.
High pressure will shift to our east during the 09Z to 15Z
period, supporting an increase in southerly winds with gusts to
near 20 knots favored at PBG and BTV.
Outlook...
Wednesday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Definite
SHRA, Slight chance TSRA.
Thursday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Thursday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Friday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Friday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Saturday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Saturday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Sunday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.
&&
$$
WHAT HAS CHANGED...Storm
DISCUSSION...Kremer/Storm
AVIATION...Kutikoff
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