506
FXUS61 KBTV 111726
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
126 PM EDT Sun Oct 11 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
As of 251 AM EDT Sunday...

Tonight is trending drier for northern areas.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
As of 251 AM EDT Sunday...

1. Rain associated with the remnants of Isaias will bring a
some rainfall tonight with no significant impacts for our area.

2. Periods of rain Tuesday into Tuesday night before drying on
Wednesday.

3. Low pressure system brings next chance for showers Friday
into Friday night with showers continuing into the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
As of 251 AM EDT Sunday...

KEY MESSAGE 1: The center of the low associated with the
remnants of Isaias will track up into the Mid-Atlantic then
track offshore before it reaches any farther north. Rainfall
will spread into southern areas this evening but struggle to
make it any farther north as it is running into the ~1030 MB
high that is giving us the dry weekend. The 00Z guidance has
trended south with the northern extent of the rain, with the
global deterministic data showing the most dramatic retreat
while the HREF and global ensembles show a more subtle retreat.
Overall, areas with a 50 percent or higher chance of seeing 0.1
inches is now mostly restricted to southern Vermont, with
measurable rain likely not reaching the international border in
places. Forecast rain amounts range from close to a half inch in
southern Windsor/Rutland counties to nothing along much of
Quebec border.

KEY MESSAGE 2: A surface low will pass through from west to
east Tuesday night, bringing widespread showers. While it will
be quick moving and technically more northern stream and not
have a strong connection to Gulf/Atlantic moisture, it will
include the remnants of Tropical Storm Rachael so there will be
some efficient rainfall with the former tropical moisture.
GEFS/EPS/CMCE combined probabilities of a half inch of rain
range between 40-70 percent and probabilities of an inch are
between 10-30 percent, so the rain would only be beneficial. The
heaviest rain should fall in northern areas. Warm air aloft
will remain on the backside so even though the cold front drops
temperatures significantly, any upslope showers look to remain
rain in the mountains. Conditions trend drier for Wednesday, but
under a classic cyclonic northwest flow cold air advection
regime, there will be some upslope sprinkles and showers but no
widespread rain.

KEY MESSAGE 3: A dynamic low pressure system brings winds and
rain to the region for Friday into Saturday. Showers will linger
behind this system as upper level trough remains over the
region. Still a lot of uncertainty about this system since it is
six days away. Models are still not in very good agreement in
this timeframe either. GFS has a deeper and stronger low while
the ECMWF depicts more of an open wave as the system moves
through.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Through 18Z Monday...VFR ceilings will persist through 00Z this
evening while steadily lowering between 18-00Z. Northern edge
of widespread precipitation shield across the srn tier of NY and
southern New England will gradually lift northward, bringing
increasing chances for light stratiform rain to some of our TAF
sites this evening and into the overnight hours. Have indicated
prevailing rainfall groups at RUT and MPV starting at 00Z, with
PROB30 groups at BTV/SLK. Conditions should remain dry further
to the north and west. A SW-NW wind shift and abundant low-level
moisture will likely bring a period of IFR cigs at KSLK between
06-14Z. In generally, TRRN OBSCD across nrn NY and VT during
the pre-dawn hours and early morning hours on Monday. Gusty S-SW
winds at BTV this afternoon will gradually diminish toward this
evening.

Outlook...

Monday Night: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Definite
SHRA.
Tuesday: Mainly MVFR, with areas IFR possible. Definite SHRA,
Slight chance TSRA.
Tuesday Night: Mainly MVFR, with areas IFR possible. Definite
SHRA, Slight chance TSRA.
Wednesday: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Slight chance
SHRA.
Wednesday Night: Mainly MVFR, with local VFR possible. Slight
chance SHRA.
Thursday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. NO SIG WX.
Thursday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
Friday: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. Likely SHRA.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 251 AM EDT Sunday...Southerly winds will continue to
increase as the night goes on and sustained winds in the 20-30
KT range should prevail for much of the day. Waves will trend
upward as well, reaching the 2-3 ft range in much of the broad
lake. Some isolated instances of 4 ft waves are possible. Winds
and waves will gradually come down tonight, with winds dropping
to around and under 10 KT by tomorrow morning and decreasing to
around and below a foot by then.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$

WHAT HAS CHANGED...Myskowski
DISCUSSION...Myskowski/Neiles
AVIATION...Banacos
MARINE...Myskowski