069
FXUS61 KBTV 102358
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
658 PM EST Tue Nov 10 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
As of 121 PM EST Tuesday...

No significant changes have been made from the previous forecast.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
As of 121 PM EST Tuesday...

1. Unsettled weather continues across the region today, with a
period of drier weather expected tomorrow.

2. Widespread precipitation looks likely Thursday into Friday,
with some wet snow accumulations possible for the higher terrain,
although exact impacts still need to be determined.

3. Seasonably cool conditions with upslope showers this
weekend, then trending drier into next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
As of 121 PM EST Tuesday...

KEY MESSAGE 1: The unsettled weather continues this afternoon as
another shortwave moves through the region. The greatest chances for
precipitation will be across the Adirondacks and northern Greens,
particularly in the favored upslope locations. There may be enough
instability to allow for a few heavier downpours or even some
graupel, but for the most part light rainfall is expected with snow
levels near summit level. Some of the upslope showers may linger
into tomorrow morning, especially across the Northeast Kingdom, but
overall tomorrow will feature drier weather ahead of the next system
arriving late week. Temperatures to be rather seasonable through
tomorrow, with daytime highs in the upper 30s to near 50 and
overnight lows generally in the 30s.

KEY MESSAGE 2:  Confidence continues to increase in the likelihood of
widespread precipitation across the region Thursday into Friday. A
large scale upper level trough looks to build across the eastern
CONUS, with surface low pressure centered in the Ohio Valley. As the
initial low moves eastward, a secondary coastal low is expected to
develop and strengthen, which will bring our chances for widespread
precipitation. Although there is still some uncertainty regarding
the exact timing and track of the system, it looks to be fairly
progressive and consensus continues to grow amongst guidance as we
get closer. Some of the biggest uncertainty has been and continues
to be on expected precipitation type with this event. Higher
elevations can expected to receive some wet snow accumulations with
this event, but valley rain is expected for the most part,
especially with the lack of cold air initially. Some snow may mix in
at the lower elevations, particularly Thursday night into Friday
morning, but accumulations are not expected. Another area of
uncertainty is how quickly cold air advects into the region which
could allow for some additional snowfall on the backside of the
system, although there is still some uncertainty on amounts. As of
now, snowfall totals look to be between 1-4 inches across the High
Peaks of the Adirondacks and the spine of the Green Mountains
Thursday and Friday. As previously mentioned, there is still some
uncertainty, so while confidence has increased there are still some
details that change over the next day or so. Temperatures are expect
to trend cooler towards the end of the week, with highs generally in
the 30s to low 40s by Friday.

KEY MESSAGE 3: Upper level troughing will prevail for much of the
weekend, leading to a mostly cloudy and cool stretch. Friday night,
surface low pressure will be tracking northeastward across the
Atlantic, resulting in northwesterly flow for northern New York and
Vermont and potential for upslope showers, 30-65% chance
precipitation Friday night and Saturday. As temperatures fall from
the 30s at the start of Friday to the seasonably cold upper
teens/20s by early Saturday morning, any potential precipitation
would start as snow at higher elevations, while wider valleys would
see rain become rain/snow mix or even snow as temperatures fall
their lowest. Showers may linger into Sunday at higher elevations,
likely drying out by Monday. Snow levels rise again each day as
highs reach a seasonably cool mid 30s and 40s, but are expected to
fall each night to around 1000 feet or even lower as temperatures
dip into the upper teens to lower 30s. Several inches will be
possible in the mountains, but anything in the valleys would likely
be lighter and have a hard time accumulating. Heading into next
week, a large surface high pressure looks to build into the region,
bringing increasing sunshine and cold overnight lows.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Through 00Z Thursday...Mainly VFR is present as a weak frontal
system moves across the airspace at this hour. Disorganized
clusters of rain showers are moving through; based on radar
trends, additional rain will only briefly bring a chance of
reduced visibilities at most sites through about 04Z. Currently
light surface winds are likely bringing marginal LLWS, with
greatest confidence at PBG where relatively strong westerly flow
at 2000 feet is present while METAR winds continue to be under
5 knots through the next couple of hours.

After 06Z, expect a trend to MVFR at higher elevation sites
(SLK, MPV, EFK) due to lowering ceilings. A period of breezy
west-northwest winds, with gusts possibly into the 20-25 knot
range, is indicated at most terminals overnight. Given the
relatively weak front and development of nocturnal inversion
combating the cold air advection, confidence in gusts overnight
are relatively low. Otherwise, modest 5 to 10 knot west-
northwest winds will be common through the remainder of the TAF
period, with any MVFR ceilings gradually lifting, most likely
between 15Z and 18Z.


Outlook...

Wednesday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA, Chance SHSN.
Thursday: Mainly IFR, with areas MVFR possible. Definite RA,
Definite SN.
Thursday Night: Mainly IFR, with local MVFR possible. Likely RA,
Likely SN.
Friday: Mainly IFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance RA, Chance
SN.
Friday Night: Mainly IFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance SHSN,
Chance SHRA.
Saturday: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Chance SHRA,
Chance SHSN.
Saturday Night: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Chance
SHRA, Chance SHSN.
Sunday: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Chance SHSN, Slight
chance SHRA.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$

WHAT HAS CHANGED...Kremer
DISCUSSION...Storm/Kremer
AVIATION...Kutikoff