293
FXUS61 KBTV 060637
AFDBTV
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
237 AM EDT Mon Oct 6 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will remain in control of the weather today, providing
mostly sunny skies and temperatures once again climbing well above
normal. Daily record highs are once again in jeopardy, including the
record high temperature for the month of October in Burlington. A
wetting rainfall is expected Tuesday afternoon and night, followed
by cool and dry conditions returning for the latter half of the week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 235 AM EDT Monday...High pressure will start to shift eastward
of the region today, leading to another day of ample sunshine, warm
temperatures, and breezy south to southwest winds. Temperatures will
reach well above normal, peaking in the lower to mid 80s in most
areas. We will likely see more daily high temperature records
broken; see the Climate section for more details. Otherwise,
efficient daytime mixing and a tightening pressure gradient as the
high moves eastward will allow winds to be a bit stronger than we`ve
seen over the past few days. This is particularly true in the St
Lawrence Valley, where southwest winds will be funneled up the
valley, allowing for gusts of 20 to 30 mph. Elsewhere, gusts should
remain 10 to 20 mph. Mixing of the ample dry air available aloft
will lower relative humidity values to 25 to 35 percent, lowest in
portions of eastern Vermont. Given the breezy conditions, near
critical fire weather conditions are expected. Please note that a
Special Weather Statement remains in effect for the St Lawrence
Valley due to these heightened concerns.
Gusts will abate this evening, but expect south to southwest winds
to remain 5 to 10 mph overnight as the high continues to exit to our
east, departing ahead of an incoming trough and associated cold
front. Lows will be in the 50s to around 60F, warmest in the St
Lawrence and Champlain Valleys, where channeling should help keep
winds a bit higher overnight.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 235 AM EDT Monday...We`ll finally see widespread wetting rain
Tuesday and Tuesday night as a strong cold front crosses the region
from northwest to southeast. Ahead of the front, expect another day
of near critical fire weather conditions, mainly in Vermont. Rain
will be later to arrive there, and expect south/southwest winds to
be stronger than on Monday, gusting 20 to 30 mph. Further west,
showers will spread into northern NY by mid/late Tuesday morning,
then pushing eastward across VT during the afternoon hours. Moisture
surging ahead of the incoming front will allow PWATs to reach 1.50
to perhaps 1.75 inch, which is the 90th percentile or better for
early October. There will be some instability, though CAPEs look to
be of the tall, skinny variety and generally 600 J/kg or less. Hence
a few rumbles of thunder and brief periods of locally heavy rainfall
are possible. The bulk of the shower activity looks to occur Tuesday
afternoon into the first part of Tuesday night, but expect
precipitation to come to a quick end late Tuesday night into
Wednesday morning as the front marches from northwest to southeast.
Total rainfall amounts will range from two-thirds of an inch to 1.25
inches, with some spots in northern NY/VT possibly seeing 1.50
inches or more. Temperatures will fall sharply as the front makes
its way through our region, and expect lows to be in the 40s to near
50F by Wednesday morning.
Cold air advection continues on breezy north winds on Wednesday. A
few showers may linger during the early morning areas across far
eastern VT, but overall expect dry conditions with decreasing
clouds. For those areas that see clearing skies early, expect the
sun could be self-defeating with fair weather cumulus popping up
during the afternoon. There will definitely be a fall-like feel to
the day, as highs will only be in the mid 50s to low/mid 60s.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 235 AM EDT Monday...Sharply colder conditions are expected
across the region for the middle of next week in the wake of a cold
front. Overnight low temperatures Wednesday night look to drop into
the 20s and 30s areawide, with temperatures even a few degrees lower
Thursday night as high pressure builds overhead. Widespread frost
will be possible as many spots drop below freezing, with the
exception of locations along Lake Champlain where temperatures will
be a touch warmer. Daytime highs on Thursday will also be on the
cool side, with temperatures only climbing into the 40s and 50s
areawide. Towards the weekend, the dry pattern looks to persist as
high pressure continues to remain the dominant weather feature.
Temperatures will gradually moderate back towards climatological
normals for the weekend, with daytime highs in the 60s and overnight
lows in the 30s and 40s.
&&
.AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Through 06Z Tuesday...VFR conditions will continue to prevail across
all terminals throughout the forecast period as high pressure
remains the dominant weather feature across the region. Fog
development will be difficult tonight given winds aloft and dry
surface conditions, although some radiational fog cannot be
completely ruled out at some of the more favorable sites, like KSLK,
although confidence is too low to include in the forecast at this
time. Southerly winds will increase through the morning into the
afternoon, generally 5 to 10 knots with some gusts up to 20 knots,
especially at KMSS.
Outlook...
Tuesday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA,
Slight chance TSRA.
Tuesday Night: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Definite
SHRA.
Wednesday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
Wednesday Night: VFR. Patchy frost.
Thursday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Thursday Night: VFR. Patchy frost.
Friday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
&&
.CLIMATE...
The heat continues today and many records are in jeopardy.
Below are some of the daily records in jeopardy of being broken
(current forecast at or within 3 degrees of the record).
Record High Temperatures:
October 6:
KBTV: 82/1990
KMPV: 79/1990
KMSS: 81/2005
KSLK: 80/1946
Record High Minimum Temperatures:
October 6:
KBTV: 64/1937
October 7:
KBTV: 62/1947
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Hastings
NEAR TERM...Hastings
SHORT TERM...Hastings
LONG TERM...Kremer
AVIATION...Kremer
CLIMATE...BTV
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