698
FXUS61 KBTV 171808
AFDBTV
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
208 PM EDT Sat Oct 17 2026
.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
As of 207 PM EDT Saturday...
No significant changes to the current forecast.
&&
.KEY MESSAGES...
As of 207 PM EDT Saturday...
1. A chilly overnight period tonight will be followed by quiet
and dry weather well into mid week.
2. High probability of dry weather and seasonable temperatures
continuing through next weekend.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
As of 207 PM EDT Saturday...
KEY MESSAGE 1: Ridging will begin to nose in this evening with the
approach of an anomalously strong area of high pressure building
over the Midwest. This 1037mb high will slide east tonight
continuing to dry out the region, and leading to a cold start to
Sunday. Tonight will be the coldest night of the forecast period as
winds abate and skies become mainly clear. Contrary to previous
forecasts, new guidance has trended towards slightly warmer lows for
tonight, albeit still cold for this time of year. Lows in the mid to
upper 20s are expected for the Adirondacks and east of the Greens
with low 30s elsewhere. A weak shortwave will ride north of our
area, but could bring some increased mid clouds to portions of the
the Adirondacks and near the International Border, stifling strong
radiational cooling. Many sites will still fall below freezing
tonight regardless of cloud coverage due to ongoing advective cold
processes under light west winds. Wind by tomorrow morning will turn
slightly southwesterly drawing slightly warmer air into the region
helping to rebound our temperatures with highs tomorrow into the mid
50s. Some light breezes around 10-15 mph in the wider valleys will
be possible tomorrow as well.
Southwest flow will continue to advect some warmer air in by
Monday as highs reach their peak for the week, into the upper
50s to low 60s across the area with clear skies. Through the
entire near and short term period towards mid week, there is
high confidence in no precipitation areawide.
KEY MESSAGE 2: Large scale upper level ridging either upstream or
overhead from Tuesday night through Saturday will bring us
seasonable temperatures and mainly clear skies as low humidity and
light wind dominates the period. One exception to the completely
quiet weather will probably be associated with a moisture-starved
cold front on Thursday, which could bring a band of clouds through
the region and support a modest north wind into Friday. Our quasi-
stationary weather pattern will include an ocean storm well to our
south and east while Canadian/polar lows track well to our east and
north, keeping any unseasonable cold locked up as well as any push
of warm air from the southwest from moving in.
Note ensemble guidance does show a very low (6 hourly PoP peaking
near 10%) chance of rain squeaking into southeastern portions of
Windsor County early Thursday in the event, probably associated with
the aforementioned ocean storm if it was to track much farther west
than the strong consensus.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Through 18Z Sunday...Mainly a wind forecast with VFR conditions
prevailing. A possible exception is for SLK, where a lake-induced
cloud layer could form due to cold westerly flow off of the eastern
Great Lakes. It is currently favored to arrive roughly 09Z and
possibly linger at times through about 17Z; cloud bases will likely
be in the MVFR range at about 1500-3000 feet if ceilings develop.
Otherwise, diurnally driven clouds early in the period will trend
SKC at most sites. Gusty west to northwest winds will likewise
diminish towards sunset. Overnight, light winds will trend
southwesterly to southerly and increase to around 10 knots by 15-17Z
at MSS/SLK/PBG/BTV, with gusts near or above 20 knots towards the
end of the period favored at MSS and BTV.
Outlook...
Sunday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Monday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Monday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Thursday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.
&&
$$
WHAT HAS CHANGED...Danzig
DISCUSSION...Danzig/Kutikoff
AVIATION...Kutikoff
|
