961
FXUS61 KBTV 161836
AFDBTV
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
236 PM EDT Wed Sep 16 2026
.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
As of 235 PM EDT Wednesday...
No significant changes.
&&
.KEY MESSAGES...
As of 235 PM EDT Wednesday...
1. A few showers tomorrow before dry weather finishes out the
week.
2. Chances for showers trending down this weekend, but
remaining seasonable cool.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
As of 235 PM EDT Wednesday...
KEY MESSAGE 1: An area of rain will attempt to move into the region
tomorrow into tomorrow night as isentropic lift occurs on a warm
front. Uncertainty still exists on how far the northern extent will
make it, with the CAMs generally split. Some members like the HRRR
favor a surface low beginning to develop and bring the rain up into
central and northern Vermont, while others like the NAM keep it more
of an open wave and restrict precipitation to southern Vermont.
Therefore, a period of rain is likely in southern Vermont tomorrow
afternoon and evening while it is more of a chance for rain farther
north. The rain will be stratiform and light, with expected amounts
up to around a quarter inch in southern Vermont. Surface high
pressure builds down from Canada Friday into Friday night, bringing
a much cooler and drier airmass. By Friday night, temperatures
should fall into the 40s and 30s, with patchy frost possible in the
colder hollows of the Adirondacks and Northeast Kingdom. Highs will
be cooler on Saturday with temperatures topping out in the 60s with
low humidity.
KEY MESSAGE 2: Following a washed out cold front by the end of the work
week, trends have continued to move towards the ECMWF solution
keeping most, if not all, precipitation south of the area Saturday
night. The baroclinic zone responsible for the area of potential
showers will be draped more over central and southern New York with
better forcing southwest of our region. That said, model solutions
Sunday into Monday denote a subtle redevelopment of a surface low in
southern New England which could bring some light shower chances to
mainly southern Vermont. Ensemble variations denote less than 40% of
members with rain over our region Saturday-Sunday. Our flow pattern
will remain confluent through the weekend, so any precipitation that
does materialize will likely be short lived. Model solutions begin
to vary by early next week in terms of precipitation chances. An
upper level high over the Great Lakes will set up a dry corridor
from the Great Lakes into northern New England, while a moisture
axis over the Mid Atlantic attempts to push north. Model uncertainty
in how much dry air there is will determine if moisture and
associated shower potential are able to penetrate northward into our
region, or if dry subsident air keeps our shower chances shunted to
the south. Trends have shifted the high a bit east, more centered
over our north early next week, which bodes some better confidence
in a drier start to next week. Regardless, zonal northwesterly flow
will keep our temperatures through the weekend into early next week
on the seasonably cool side with highs fairly consistent in the mid
to upper 60s, and lows in the low to mid 40s, with some cold hollows
hovering about the upper 30s. A sign of the changing seasons, our
upper air pattern in the ensembles is beginning to show hints of
some CAD by Tuesday, as the high to our north shifts further east,
which would lead to some cool trapped air east of the Greens by mid
next week. Sky conditions favor mainly cloudy conditions through the
extended.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Through 18Z Thursday...Calm weather is expected to continue for the
next 12 or so hours before a frontal system begins to move through
the area. Most sites are seeing ceilings 3500-5000ft agl, with
terrain influences leading to high MVFR cigs at SLK. Ceilings will
turn more scattered and rise to 5000-7000ft agl this afternoon.
Winds will calm over the next few hours, as they turn more west-
northwest by 20-22Z. The challenging aspect to this forecast will be
any localized fog and low ceilings potential. Beyond 00Z, clouds
will hover and gradually lower back towards 3000-4000ft agl, with
models varying on how low ceilings go. Observations upstream denote
IFR low stratus over northern Indiana which is part of our
approaching air mass. However, as a cold front slides east tonight,
the eastward extend of the frontal passage will determine how north
these low ceilings get. Subsequently, a further east passage, may
allow for some clearing at EFK, enough for brief patchy fog.
Confidence for fog tonight is relatively low with expectations for
low stratus ceilings, in addition to a detachment from rain.
Ceilings will trend towards MVFR 1500-2500ft agl outside of MSS/EFK
after sunrise tomorrow, with shower chances at the end of this TAF
period. Winds remain light and variable tomorrow.
Outlook...
Thursday Night: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. NO SIG WX.
Friday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Friday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Saturday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Saturday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA.
Sunday: Mainly MVFR, with areas IFR possible. Chance SHRA.
Sunday Night: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Slight chance
SHRA.
Monday: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. NO SIG WX.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.
&&
$$
WHAT HAS CHANGED...Myskowski
DISCUSSION...Myskowski/Danzig
AVIATION...Danzig
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