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  Thursday August 17, 2017

 

NWS Area Forecast Discussion


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000
FXUS61 KBTV 160453
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
1253 AM EDT Wed Aug 16 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure across the northern Great Lakes will build
eastward providing the North Country with cooler and drier
weather conditions Wednesday and Thursday. The next chance for
widespread showers and possible thunderstorms will arrive with a
frontal system later Friday into Friday night.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/...
As of 1253 AM EDT Wednesday...Other than a few showers across
Rutland and Windsor counties...threat of showers over for much
of the area. Have fine tuned forecast to indicate a few showers
over south central Vermont for the next couple of hours.
Otherwise clear to partly cloudy skies overnight with patchy fog
looks good. Main cold front just now getting into the Ottawa
Valley and this will continue to slowly push into the area early
this morning.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
As of 355 PM EDT Tuesday...Behind the upper level trough the
flow becomes northwest which will act to drive in a drier
airmass. High pressure develops and remains in firm control
until late Thursday as an upper level trough slowly starts to
increase cloud cover across the North Country. The main forecast
challenges will be how cold do we bottom out at in the Northern
Adirondacks Wednesday night. With calm winds/clear skies, I
wouldn`t be surprised Thursday morning to see Saranac Lake in
the 30s. Warm air advection returns though for Thursday as temps
trend back towards near normal for Thursday afternoon and
overnight.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 412 PM EDT Tuesday...Available medium range guidance is
showing good agreement through early next week.

Period begins with ridging at the surface and aloft before
sliding east of the area and bringing the return of
precipitation early Friday. Heavy rainfall may become possible
as PWAT values around 2" Friday afternoon and Friday evening.
Surface front slowly moves east bringing and end to the
precipitation Saturday. Quiet weather returns during the day
Sunday and Sunday night as a ridge builds back over the eastern
seaboard.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Through 12Z Wednesday...Scattered thunderstorms pushing east
and southeast of BTV at 2345Z will impact MPV during the next
hour with brief heavy rain, and ultimately clear the region by
02Z. Will see some partial clearing and patchy LIFR fog in the
wake of this activity overnight. Have indicated dense fog at
MPV/SLK after 06Z. VFR and clearing sky conditions expected
during the daylight hrs Wednesday with north winds 8-10kts.

Outlook...

Wednesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Thursday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Thursday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA.
Friday: VFR/MVFR. Likely SHRA...Slight Chance TSRA.
Friday Night: VFR/MVFR. Likely SHRA...Slight Chance TSRA.
Saturday: VFR. Chance SHRA.
Saturday Night: VFR. Slight Chance SHRA.
Sunday: VFR. Chance SHRA.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Deal
NEAR TERM...Evenson/Deal
SHORT TERM...Deal
LONG TERM...Manning
AVIATION...Banacos/Manning


 
 
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