284
FXUS61 KBTV 181415
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
1015 AM EDT Wed Jul 18 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure building into the North Country will produce drier
and cooler temperatures today with northwest winds at 5 to 15
mph. A chilly night is anticipated tonight with lows in the mid
40s to mid 50s. Temperatures return to above normal values by
the end of the week, along with increasing chances for rain
showers by Sunday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 1014 AM EDT Wednesday...No big changes with the 1030
update this morning, most of the clouds are gone now. Otherwise
forecast was left unchanged. Previous discussion follows.

Minor update to increase clouds across the cpv and parts of ne
VT thru 12z, as early morning sat showing some leftover pockets
of clouds. Large scale subsidence per water vapor trends, expect
clouds to quickly dissipate over the next 1 to 2 hours. Also,
adjusted temps to match current obs, which as slk down to 43f.
Otherwise, increased wind gusts slightly across the cpv and
parts of central/eastern vt, as latest rap soundings show good
mixing, supporting localized gusts 15 to 20 mph possible.

Water vapor shows mid/upper level trof axis directly overhead
this morning with building 1020mb high pres located over
northern MI. The combination of large scale subsidence and
building high pres will result in mostly sunny skies today.
Expecting a few fair wx cumulus clouds to develop as leftover
boundary layer moisture on upslope northwest flow is lifted by
the higher trrn as convective temps are reached. Also, a few
lingering mid level clouds are possible with cyclonic flow aloft
over the nek this morning. Otherwise, progged 850mb temps btwn
8-10c support highs upper 60s to mid/upper 70s across our cwa
today with northwest winds 5 to 15 mph. A few higher gusts btwn
18-20 mph possible.

Tonight...High pres directly overhead will produce clear skies
and light winds, allowing temps to quickly drop after sunset.
Sharp low level thermal inversion will develop with coolest
readings in the deeper/protected valleys of the dacks/nek. Have
trended toward the ece guidance for slk, which has 36f, which
looks reasonable. Thinking lows mainly mid 40s to mid 50s,
except upper 30s nek/slk. Fog/br development is tricky with some
areas probably reaching cross over values, but area will be 24
hours removed from measurable precip. Thinking best chc will be
eastern/central vt, especially lower ct river valley near VSF.
Maybe some patchy fog near Lake Placid/SLK toward sunrise on
Thursday.

Thursday...dry weather continues with sfc high pres and building
heights aloft. Progged 925mb to 850mb temps warm 2 to 3 degrees
from Weds values and support highs mid 70s to lower 80s most
locations under mostly sunny skies.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 338 AM EDT Wednesday...High pressure will remain draped
across the Northeast CONUS during the short term. Therefore,
anticipate clear skies, light winds, and other than perhaps some
patchy river valley fog early Friday morning, fair weather.
Thursday night lows will mainly be in the 50s, though the usual
cold spots in the Northeast Kingdom and Adirondacks will drop
into the 40s. Friday`s 925mb temperatures will be several
degrees warmer than Thursday, so, likewise, daytime highs will
also be warmer, generally in lower to mid 80s across the higher
elevations, while the St Lawrence and Champlain Valleys will top
out in the mid to upper 80s.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 338 AM EDT Wednesday...We will finish up the week with
another hot and dry day, then we`ll see an unsettled pattern
settle in for much of next week. High pressure will exit to our
east on Saturday, making way for an upper trough to dig into the
Great Lakes/Midwest states. The first closed low early in the
week will become more of an open wave after spinning over the
Midwest states for 24-48 hours, but another upper digging upper
trough will soon approach from Ontario/Quebec on Tuesday. These
features combined with the Bermuda high will result in deep
southwest flow across the North Country. Warm and moist air will
stream northward in this southwest flow, resulting in
widespread shower chances Sunday right into the middle of the
week. Precipitation will likely be focused during the daylight
hours as we destabilize with heating, then wane through the
overnight once the sun sets. Model progs indicate enough
instability will exist for a chance of thunderstorms through
much of the period. Temperatures will be near to above normal,
particularly at night as the abundant moisture keeps lows well
into the 60s, approaching 70 in some spots.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Through 12Z Thursday...VFR conditions prevail at all taf sites
today with building 1020mb high pres. Look for northwest winds 5
to 10 knots with localized gusts at btv/mpv btwn 15 and 18 knots
from 15z to 22z. These winds will become light and variable by
sunset with clear skies prevailing. Thinking some localized
patchy fog/br possible btwn 07-11z Thursday morning at slk/mpv.
Have mention ifr conditions with vis at 1sm and clouds scattered
at 100 feet. Still some uncertainty on fog development with dry
air in place and if cross over values can be reached tonight,
given the dry airmass.

Outlook...

Thursday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Thursday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Friday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Friday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Saturday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Saturday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
Sunday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance SHRA.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Taber
NEAR TERM...Neiles/Taber
SHORT TERM...Hastings
LONG TERM...Hastings
AVIATION...Taber