356
FXUS61 KBTV 171818
AFDBTV
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
218 PM EDT Mon Aug 17 2026
.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
As of 212 PM EDT Monday...
No significant changes were made to the forecast.
&&
.KEY MESSAGES...
As of 212 PM EDT Monday...
1. Rounds of scattered showers are expected this afternoon, then
another weak frontal system will increase shower and
thunderstorm chances again Wednesday.
2. Seasonable conditions prevail for the end of the week into
the weekend, with increasing shower chances for Sunday into Monday.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
As of 212 PM EDT Monday...
KEY MESSAGE 1: A cold front is crossing the forecast area this
afternoon resulting in a line of spotty showers. About 10-40%
chance of lingering showers overnight tonight, with highest
chance in the Northeast Kingdom, closest to the departing low
pressure system. Otherwise, surface high pressure will build in
from the Midwest overnight and Tuesday, resulting in seasonable
low temperatures in the 50s and lower 60s both tonight and
Tuesday night. Widespread patchy fog is possible tonight,
especially in the typical valley locations and spots that
receive rain this afternoon. Aside from a low chance of a spot
terrain driven shower on Tuesday, the next chance of rain
continues to be on Wednesday. Consensus suggests that a weak
cold front will approach the area from Canada during the day and
stall around the international border. About 55-95% chance of
precipitation on Wednesday for most of northern New York and
northwestern Vermont, with lower chances in central, southern,
and eastern Vermont. The probabilities of thunderstorms remain
low with most guidance rather limited in instability consistent
with poor lapse rates amidst a thick overcast along the frontal
zone. Highest chance of a spotty storm will be across northern
New York. Overall, this event remains unlikely to be impactful.
Timing and location of this front and associated cloud cover
will affect high temperatures, but as of now highest confidence
is for temps reaching a seasonable mid 70s to mid 80s both
Tuesday and Wednesday. Showers could linger into Thursday,
although chances are much lower than on Wednesday. Wednesday
night should be a touch cooler than previous nights but still
seasonable with lows in the upper 40s to near 60 F following the
cold front, then Thursday should see highs in the 70s and lower
80s.
KEY MESSAGE 2: A period of drier weather is expected towards the end of
the week as high pressure builds into the region. Daytime
temperatures increase towards climatological normals into next
weekend with highs in the 70s and lower 80s as well as overnight
lows generally in the 50s. The next chances for widespread showers
look to arrive Sunday into Monday, with plenty of uncertainty
regarding the timing and evolution of this system. As we get closer,
forecast guidance should come into better agreement and more details
should emerge.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Through 18Z Tuesday...MVFR conditions currently prevail this
afternoon with ceilings generally between 1500-3000 ft AGL and a few
showers moving through the region as a cold front slowly moves
eastward. MVFR ceilings are expected to persist over the next few
hours, before gradually scattering out as high pressure builds
overhead with a brief period of VFR possible towards 00Z. With
plenty of low level moisture, fog development looks very favorable
tonight. The greatest confidence for IFR or lower conditions will be
at KSLK, KMPV, and KRUT, but fog/mist may be possible at most other
terminals. Guidance suggests that fog could develop earlier than
normal, near 04Z or so, and will dissipates after sunrise towards
12Z. Once fog clears, VFR conditions are expected to prevail through
the remainder of the forecast period. Southerly winds this afternoon
will trend light/calm overnight before light northerly flow develops
tomorrow morning.
Outlook...
Tuesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Likely SHRA.
Wednesday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
Thursday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
Thursday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Friday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Friday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Saturday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.
&&
$$
WHAT HAS CHANGED...Storm
DISCUSSION...Kremer/Storm
AVIATION...Kremer
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