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  Friday June 22, 2018

 

NWS Area Forecast Discussion


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000
FXUS61 KBTV 191745
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
145 PM EDT Tue Jun 19 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will bring mainly dry and seasonably mild to warm
weather to the region through the end of the work week. The
next chance of appreciable rainfall occurs by next weekend as
low pressure lifts northeast from the Ohio Valley.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 145 PM EDT Tuesday...Going forecast in good shape with no
big changes needed. Areal coverage of shallow cumulus clouds
remains rather limited and will eventually go away toward
sunset. Have trended sky grids in this direction. Otherwise rest
of forecast in good shape.

Prior discussion...
Yesterday`s surface front which brought rounds of strong
thunderstorms and locally heavy rainfall (daily records at KBTV
(2.29") and KMSS (3.31")) continues to sink south and away from
our region early this morning. Any lingering light showers in
the pre- dawn hours will end as skies trend partly to mostly
sunny by later this morning and high pressure bridges east from
the Upper Great Lakes. High temperatures will range through the
70s under moderate north/northwesterly flow with occasional
gusts into the 15- 20 mph range. With dewpoints dropping into
the 40s humidity levels will feel much more tolerable.

Mainly clear and quiet conditions are expected by tonight as the
surface high builds atop the region. Low temperatures on the
seasonably cool side, ranging mainly through the 40s to around 50
though with typical variability often seen under light nocturnal
flow regimes.

Airmass then undergoes moderation by Wednesday as high pressure
skirts east and surface flow trends southerly for a brief period.
High temperatures to average in the 77 to 83 degree range, or some 4-
8 degrees above today`s readings though humidity levels should
remain at moderate levels. Another surface front will approach the
international border by late afternoon with some increase in cloud
cover across the northern tier and just an outside shot of a
scattered shower or sprinkle. Unlike its predecessor this front will
only have limited moisture to work with so only low-end pops around
20 percent will be offered in these areas with dry weather
continuing south.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
As of 336 AM EDT Tuesday...Generally looking at quiet
conditions for the middle to end of the week with the only
feature to highlight being a weak cold front dropping southward
out of Canada Wednesday night. Not a whole lot of forcing noted
with this feature, with the best chance of some light showers
being early in the night along the international border. By
Thursday morning, high pressure will be building in with sunny
days and clear nights expected through Friday night. Behind the
front temps will run on the cool side of normal with lows
Wednesday and Thursday nights in the 40s and 50s, and highs only
in the upper 60s to low 70s on Thursday. Ahead of the weekend
though, increasing south/southwesterly flow will warm temps back
to summer-like levels for Friday with highs in the mid 70s to
low 80s and lows in the mid to upper 50s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 336 AM EDT Tuesday...Looking out towards the weekend,
unsettled conditions look to return to the North Country as low
pressure tracks northeast out of the Mississippi River Valley
Friday night and through the Great Lakes and Northeast states
Saturday and Sunday. Overall timing of precipitation doesn`t
favor widespread thunderstorm development with the best
isentropic lift and deep layer moisture moving into the forecast
area Saturday night, but the potential for another round of
heavy rain looks plausible with modeled PWATs pushing back up
towards 2" in the warm sector early Sunday morning. A muggy and
showery day looks likely for Sunday with a cold front passage
coming late in the day, followed by a return of high pressure
and drier/cooler conditions to start the work week.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Through 12Z Wednesday...VFR conditions are expected through the
period. The only exception to this will be at KSLK and KMPV
where there may be a window from 06z to 12z where visibilities
lower to around a mile and ceilings lower to 500 feet. Otherwise
little in the way of any cloud cover is expected. Winds will be
gusty this afternoon from the northwest...in the 10 to 20 knot
range...then become light and variable by sunset. Will pick up
again a bit after 14z from the south and southwest...but at
speeds under 10 knots.

Outlook...

Wednesday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
Thursday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Thursday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Friday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Friday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Saturday: VFR. Chance RA, Slight chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA.
Saturday Night: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. Likely RA, Chance
TSRA.
Sunday: Mainly MVFR, with areas IFR possible. Likely RA, Chance
TSRA.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMG
NEAR TERM...Evenson/JMG
SHORT TERM...Lahiff
LONG TERM...Lahiff
AVIATION...Evenson



 
 
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