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  Sunday October 22, 2017

 

NWS Area Forecast Discussion


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FXUS61 KBTV 201457
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
1057 AM EDT Fri Oct 20 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak and dry cold front will continue to traverse the North
Country through the overnight hours. Behind the front
temperatures will be slightly cooler but high pressure quickly
builds back in. This will lead to dry conditions through the
weekend with above normal temperatures across the region. The
next chance for widespread rainfall occurs by Tuesday of next
week as slow moving low pressure moves into the northeast.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 1055 AM EDT Friday...Just a perfect Friday out there, and
since I was handed a near perfect forecast, very little change
was made for this mid-morning update. Enjoy!

Previous Discussion...A dry airmass is in place behind the
surface front that moved through the North Country overnight.
We should be looking at a pair of excellent days with mostly
sunny skies and no precip to speak of. Highs today behind the
weak front will warm into the low to mid 60s with moderate
5-10kt northwesterly winds and occasional gusts to 15-20kts.
Based on upstream obs and expected boundary layer mixing I`ve
undercut guidance on dew points for the North Country as we
should see relative humidities as low as 25-30%. The overall
fire danger should be lower today however as the winds will be
significantly lower across the region.

With high pressure over the region, Friday night will see
excellent radiational cooling in the valleys with temps dropping
to the mid 30s to mid 40s which is still well above normal for
mid-October. As the high starts to move offshore Saturday we
get into southerly return flow which will boost low level RH and
also see temps warm into the 70s making for a great day for
outdoor activities.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 332 AM EDT Friday...Upper ridge with associated surface
high pressure system remains in place over the area Saturday
night and Sunday. Plenty of sunshine and dry weather is expected
with above normal temperatures...highs in the mid 60s to lower
70s on Sunday. Winds will generally be under 10 miles per hour.
Overall should be a great day for outdoor activities.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 332 AM EDT Friday...Upper ridge moves gradually east
Sunday night and Monday...but flow aloft becomes rather
amplified. As a result...this should delay the onset of any
precipitation which this time yesterday indications were there
would be a threat of showers. However...it now looks like any
precipitation will hold off until Monday night and the best
chances for rain will come Tuesday into Wednesday when deep
southerly flow develops over the area. Have likely to
categorical precipitation chances in over the entire area during
this time period. Eventually the trough axis shifts east
Wednesday night into Thursday and precipitation should taper off
to showers and decrease in areal coverage. Looking at a
continuation of above normal temperatures through the period
despite the clouds and precipitation.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Through 12Z Saturday...VFR is expected through the forecast
period with wind again being the only aviation concern. Winds
will generally be out of the northwest 8-12kts during the day
and occasionally gusty generally from 14-21z this afternoon with
gusts of 15-19kts. Overnight the winds will decouple and relax
to nearly calm with drainage flow expected at RUT. Skies should
be mostly clear after the high clouds due to the front exit to
our east.

Outlook...

Saturday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Saturday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Sunday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Sunday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Monday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Monday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA...Chance RA.
Tuesday: VFR/MVFR. Definite RA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Have coordinated with fire officials and reissued special
weather statement for today to bring awareness of breezy winds
and dry weather increasing fire weather concerns. Fire officials
advise against any open burning...including campfires on Friday
across northern NY and VT. Expect northwest winds today between
10 and 15 mph with localized gusts 20 to 25 mph. Minimum relative
humidity values will drop into the 25 to 35% range...with
lowest values and strongest winds across portions of central and
eastern VT on Friday afternoon. These conditions combined with
the recent dry weather has resulted in the fine fuels such as
leaves, grass, and small brush to become very dry. All these
factors combine to increase the potential for any fires that do
start to spread quickly and become difficult to contain.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
KTYX radar at Fort Drum, New York will remain down for
scheduled maintenance through tomorrow (Friday, 10/20) as
technicians repaint the radome.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Deal/Lahiff
NEAR TERM...Deal
SHORT TERM...Evenson
LONG TERM...Evenson
AVIATION...Deal
FIRE WEATHER...BTV
EQUIPMENT...BTV



 
 
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