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  Tuesday May 23, 2017

 

NWS Area Forecast Discussion


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FXUS61 KBTV 210728
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
328 AM EDT Sun May 21 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Strong high pressure across Quebec and northern New England
will result in a chilly and mostly clear night, and continued
fair weather for much of the day Sunday. Some areas of frost
expected this morning across the Northern Adirondack region, as
well as portions of north-central and northeastern Vermont. Will
see a gradual increase in clouds later Sunday as a warm front
approaches from the southwest. This warm front will bring
overcast skies and periods of rain during Sunday night into
Monday morning. Rainfall amounts between one-third and one-half
inch are generally expected across the North Country. Tuesday
will see a brief return of surface high pressure.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 127 AM EDT Sunday...Mostly clear skies under high
pressure and light to calm winds have allowed temperatures to
fall into the upper 30s to mid 40s so far. Looking for lows
early Sunday morning ranging from the upr 30s to lower 40s in
the St. Lawrence and Champlain Valleys, and generally low-mid
30s east of the Green Mtns and in the northern Adirondacks.

Will see temperatures rise quickly on Sunday, as winds turn
into the south around 10 mph. Afternoon highs will be warmer
than the past couple of days, generally ranging from the upr 60s
to lower 70s. Anticipate filtered sunshine as upr- mid level
clouds spread ewd from the Great Lakes with increasing mid-
level WAA regime moving in. That said, there is good
amplification of a shortwave ridge across NY/New England
700-500mb layer during the daylight hrs...and a lack of low-
level convergence. Thus, kept conditions dry Sunday, with just a
slight chance of a rain shower moving into St.
Lawrence/Franklin Co toward 23Z (7pm) Sunday.

Will see an unsettled period of weather, with well-defined
region of 850-700mb WAA and isentropic lift moving enewd across
our region during Sunday night thru Monday morning. Rain showers
should overspread the region from W-E during Sunday night, per
consensus of mesoscale and global model suite. We have increased
PoPs to near 80 percent for the pre- dawn hrs Monday based on
latest trends in NWP guidance. Should see shower activity
gradually move out from west to east Monday morning with
decreased forcing for ascent and drier deep-layer RH values into
Monday aftn. All in all, looking for 0.33-0.50" precipitation,
likely highest in the nrn Adirondacks with S-SW flow regime
setting up. Lows on Sunday night generally 45-52F, with Monday`s
highs in the low- mid 60s from the Champlain Valley wwd, and in
the low-mid 50s with lingering low overcast expected for ern
VT. Winds will increase from the south during Sunday night,
generally 10-15 mph. We may briefly see Lake Wind Advisory
criteria on Lake Champlain from 07Z-14Z Monday, with south winds
across the broad lake of 15-25 kt.


&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 325 AM EDT Sunday...Broad southwesterly upper level flow
across the region during the short term period with high
pressure giving way to a coastal low on Wednesday. Monday night
lingering chance pops in Vermont will trend downward to nil by
midnight as weak front departs the region. Little airmass change
behind the boundary, and low level winds return to southerly by
mid day Tuesday. Tuesday weak surface high pressure will keep
precipitation at bay, however periodic vort maxes eject out of
base of 500 mb trough to west will traverse the area keeping
scattered to broken sky cover. One shortwave trough moving up in
the southwest flow will spin up a surface low Wednesday morning
along the Delmarva coast and move it northeast to southern New
England coast Wednesday evening. Chance pops across the
region...ECMWF spreads precip shield further west than GFS, and
expect to further refine this part of the forecast in coming
days.Southwesterly flow will also keep seasonable temperature in
place with highs in the 70s and lows in the 40s to lower 50s.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 325 AM EDT Sunday...Long term period becomes more active
as the upper trough to the west shifts east, spreading
precipitation into the area. Model differences seen last night
are starting to coalesce into a common solution. Mean upper
level trough over eastern US will move east in two phases. First
is southern low moving out of Gulf states will swing northeast
Thursday, spreading more showers up the east coast. The
northern portion of the trough will hang back over the Great
Lakes, then move east and merge with the southern low remnants
over the gulf of Maine on Friday. The result is a prolonged
period of likely pops for rain Thursday and Friday. With all the
pieces in motion there should be some breaks at some point in
there, but difficult to tease out those details this far out.

For Saturday the low finally kicks out with building high
pressure. Some lingering showers especially in Vermont in the
mountains, but trend will be to salvage at least part of the
Memorial Day weekend.

Plenty of cloud cover and rain cooled air to keep temperatures a
few degrees below normal but still seasonable. Overall flow
through this period is southwesterly as well, and no real
temperature changes.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Through 06z Monday...VFR conditions will persist Sunday into
early Sunday evening. Mostly clear skies will see increasing
clouds becoming SCT-BKN 150-250 this morning and mid-day, then
gradually increasing and lowering through afternoon but still
VFR. Any showers will largely be confined to Northern NY after
22Z. MVFR conditions possible in showers after 02Z/Mon at KMSS
and KSLK.

Light to calm winds this morning will become SE 5-10kts during
the daytime hours.

Outlook...

Monday: VFR/MVFR. Breezy. Chance SHRA.
Monday Night: VFR. Slight Chance SHRA.
Tuesday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday Night: VFR. Slight Chance SHRA.
Wednesday: VFR. Chance SHRA.
Wednesday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA.
Thursday: VFR. Chance SHRA.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...Frost Advisory until 7 AM EDT this morning for VTZ003-004-
     006>008-010.
NY...Frost Advisory until 7 AM EDT this morning for NYZ029>031-034.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Banacos
NEAR TERM...Banacos/KGM
SHORT TERM...Hanson
LONG TERM...Hanson
AVIATION...KGM



 
 
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