351
FXUS61 KBTV 200607
AFDBTV
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
207 AM EDT Mon Oct 20 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
Wind and wetting rain is expected today. The strongest gusts will be
early across western slopes of the Greens up to 40 to 50 mph.
Elsewhere, gusts of 20 to 35 mph will be possible. As low pressure
moves overhead this afternoon and evening, winds will begin to
subside. We will transition from warm, humid rains to a cool
rain. Our pattern for much of the upcoming week will be cool
and unsettled, and may be cool enough towards the end of the
week for some summit level snow.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 204 AM EDT Monday...Wind advisory remains in effect through 11
AM for western slopes of the Greens for gusts approaching 50 mph.
Assessing the wind forecast, most gusts in northern New York ranged
from 35 to 45 mph with a few reported branches and wires down
affecting utilities. Probabilistic data for gusts greater than 48 mph
(the Wind Advisory threshold) have decreased on the HREF. The
primary reason appears to be an earlier arrival of moisture reaching
into Vermont. However, forecast soundings along western slopes
still depict nearly 50 knot winds at just 900 ft agl. So all it
would take is just a little to bring faster flow down towards
the surface. Given the favorable pattern configuration, still
thinking the potential remains, but is certainly lower
probability than before.
Over northern New York, light rain showers are beginning to approach
ahead of a deep, negatively tilted trough. Ingredients method shows
a tongue of 1.25-1.50" PWATs will back into the area with deep
meridional flow transporting moisture very efficiently. In addition
to synoptic scale support, CAPE values of 200-500 J/kg will deep as
cold temperatures aloft approach. Favorable frontogenetic forcing
and intense deformation should result in considerable shower
activity on the back side of the upper low as it lifts north into
tonight. If anything, the convective line has trended a bit more
south and east, but rain filling in with low pressure moving
overhead will still yield about 0.50-1.00", give or take some based
on local terrain effects. We`ll happily take the rain. HREF
probability of 2" in 6 hours is about 10% in southern Vermont, so
southeast facing slopes could have some favorable upslope alignment
with convective activity today.
With active weather and clouds, temperatures will range in the 60s
for most today. Overnight, cooler weather in the mid 30s to mid 40s
will develop. We`ll have a brief window of clearing overnight into
Tuesday as the upper low pulls away. However, by late in the day,
another large upper low will approach with a warm front about to
cross the St. Lawrence River by 00z Wednesday. Temperatures on
Tuesday will remain in the upper 50s to lower 60s.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 204 AM EDT Monday...A deep upper level low builds into the
region for Wednesday, bringing a return of the rain showers and
cooler temperatures. 850 mb temperatures will eventually fall below
freezing so these rain showers will become snow showers in the high
peaks. Some very light accumulations are becoming more likely in the
highest peaks Wednesday night. Winds will be southerly turning
southwesterly so parts of the Champlain and Connecticut River
Valleys may be downsloped and miss out on some of the showers. The
cool temperatures aloft and the southwesterly winds look to bring a
few lake effect showers into parts of St. Lawrence County.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 204 AM EDT Monday...The upper level low remains over the region
for the rest of the week and into the weekend so scattered
showers will continue to be possible, particularly in the
upslope regions. 850 MB temperatures should stay below freezing
into Sunday, so any precipitation during that time could be
snow. 925 mb temperatures look to fall close to freezing Friday
into Saturday, and model soundings indicate freezing levels may
fall into the 3,000 ft range or even slightly below during this
time. The steadies precipitation should have exited the region
by this time, but a few showers should still be lingering. With
all the clouds and showers around, it will be a dreary stretch
outside for most people with highs in the 40s and 50s. Ridging
will attempt to build into the region for the end of the weekend
and the start of next week, but its strength and level of
influence remain to be seen.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Through 06Z Sunday...Currently, south to southeast winds of 10 to 20
knots and gusts 18 to 28 knots prevail. These conditions will
prevail the next several hours until about 09z to 12z as rain
showers approach from the west. Periods of LLWS likely at most
terminals as 40 to 50 knot south winds at 2000 ft agl progress east.
Rain chances will favor Vermont about 12z to 20z as a surge of
moisture lifts north with convection possible. Though not expressly
mentioned in any TAF, some thunder will be possible. A pocket of
lighter winds is expected as winds shift more to the southwest.
Concurrently, ceilings will begin to fall towards 1500-3000 ft agl.
About 20-22z, rain will begin to lift out of Vermont, briefly.
Stacked low pressure will move north of the international border,
and a band of showers will develop over northern New York which will
slowly lift northeast with the low. This strip of rain will likely
have 2-5SM visibilities, and we will observe ceilings fall towards
700-1500 ft agl as KSLK, KRUT, and KMSS switch to west-northwest
approaching 06z Sunday.
Outlook...
Tuesday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight chance
SHRA.
Tuesday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA.
Wednesday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Definite SHRA.
Wednesday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance
SHRA.
Thursday: MVFR. Chance SHRA.
Thursday Night: Mainly MVFR, with local VFR possible. Chance
SHRA.
Friday: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. Chance SHRA.
&&
.MARINE...
A lake wind advisory will be remain in effect tonight for
south winds 15 to 25 knots with gusts up to 30 knots possible.
Wave will be building 2 to 4 feet with higher swells possible in
the open waters. Stronger winds will begin to subside early in
the morning, though.
&&
.EQUIPMENT...
The TYX radar is down until further notice after a hardware
failure occurred. Replacement parts have been ordered and will
be installed.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...Wind Advisory until 11 AM EDT this morning for VTZ016>018.
NY...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Haynes
NEAR TERM...Haynes
SHORT TERM...Myskowski
LONG TERM...Myskowski
AVIATION...Haynes
MARINE...BTV
EQUIPMENT...BTV
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