331
FXUS61 KBTV 140001
AFDBTV
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
801 PM EDT Sat Sep 13 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
An upper level disturbance and weak cold front will help
produce cloudiness and slight chances for light rain showers
through midday Sunday. Sunny days with large diurnal temperature
ranges will resume for the work week along with a warming trend
through Thursday. While some chances for rain return towards
next weekend, any significant rain is unlikely.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 214 PM EDT Saturday...A subtle trough is sliding eastward
through northern Vermont this afternoon, with the surface
reflection that was observed in northern New York becoming non-
existent. A slight uptick in dew points and low level warm air
advection along with partial clearing is yielding some meager
instability, so a few showers will continue to be possible
through the evening hours working their way from the Adirondacks
into northern Vermont. Ample dry air will limit chances of
precipitation today, especially at lower elevations.
Meanwhile, a well-defined cold front is currently working its
way southward in central Quebec and is expected to fall apart as
the thermal gradient diminishes closer to our latitude.
However, it will be tied to another upper level shortwave that
will help sustain some shower chances tonight, especially in
northern New York, and then into Vermont early tomorrow morning,
before exiting quickly by the afternoon. By comparison to the
very limited precipitation we saw today, these showers should be
more widespread. Yet rainfall still looks light (mainly under
0.1") and spotty given a thin axis of high relative humidity
through a deep layer and fast system movement.
With lack of moisture ahead of the front limiting cloud cover,
elevated dew points today, and light wind, areas of fog are
expected to develop overnight and could be more widespread than
a typical night recently. Again, aside from any dense fog, no
hazardous weather is expected through the period. And while cool
air advection will take place Sunday afternoon, enough sunshine
and deeper mixing will support a slightly warmer day than
Saturday by a couple degrees on average as highs range through
the 70s. Another round of fog near bodies of water is expected
tomorrow night as the weakness of the cold front will mean
relatively moist surface conditions should still be present. Fog
will develop as winds die off and temperatures easily fall
below cross over temperatures, especially away from the wider
river valleys.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
As of 214 PM EDT Saturday...Little weather of note on Monday as
high pressure and seasonable air is expected to be over our
region. Near normal temperatures will continue with highs in the
70s and lows in the 40s for most spots. Following the valley
fog that developed overnight and lingering low level moisture
indicated by model fields of 850 millibar relative humidity, the
morning could be on the cloudier side in localized spots before
an extended sunny/clear sky stretch begins with dissipation of
these clouds over time. Hence, during the afternoon skies will
trend sunny areawide. With a weak Rex block pattern developing
with a closed low trapped near North Carolina and ridging stuck
to its north and west, little change in our air mass is expected
into Monday night. Another round of dense fog is a slam dunk
overnight Monday within favored/typical fog prone spots, while
limited to none is anticipated elsewhere given large scale
drought conditions present.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 214 PM EDT Saturday...Large scale upper ridging and
surface high pressure remain in control into Friday, continuing
the period of dry weather. While it will be mostly sunny, some
cirrus looks to advect from a nearly stationary upper low to our
south and into the region for the middle and later part of the
week. Temperatures will climb above climatological normals,
particularly during the days with highs reaching the upper 70s
to mid 80s by Thursday. However, low humidity should keep decent
radiational cooling conditions at night so temperatures will
drop back into the 40s and 50s, though these will still be a
little above normals. A cold front will pass down from the north
sometime in the Friday-Saturday timeframe, and it will bring
the chance of some showers. However, there will only be northern
stream energy with this feature and no connection to gulf
moisture, so significant rainfall is unlikely. GEFS/EPS/CAN
ensemble probabilities of more than a tenth of an inch of rain
are only in the 20-30 percent range for this event. However, a
few members do try to develop and cut off a surface low near the
region, something that would provide more substantial rainfall.
Recent trends have made these solutions less likely though.
After this system, more seasonable weather returns, but no
significant cool downs look likely.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Through 00Z Monday...Still anticipating some patchy fog will
develop late in the night, but its exact extent continues to
remain uncertain. Still think that the best chance for some BR
or FG is at MPV and SLK, but models continue to show possibility
of fog forming in other spots. Some cloud cover over the region
now, but should not remain all night. All fog will lift within
a couple hours of sunrise and VFR conditions will prevail for
the rest of the day. Winds will generally be light and variable
within the next 24 hours, though northerly winds will be favored
at times tomorrow. Winds will go calm or terrain driven
tonight.
Outlook...
Sunday Night: VFR. Patchy BR.
Monday: VFR. Patchy BR.
Monday Night: VFR. Patchy BR.
Tuesday: VFR. Patchy BR.
Tuesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Thursday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Kutikoff
NEAR TERM...Kutikoff
SHORT TERM...Kutikoff
LONG TERM...Myskowski
AVIATION...Neiles
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