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  Thursday July 2, 2020

 

NWS Area Forecast Discussion


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FXUS61 KBTV 010716
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
316 AM EDT Wed Jul 1 2020

.SYNOPSIS...
Upper low  pressure will remain across New England today with
scattered to numerous showers and a few thunderstorms expected by
afternoon, especially across Vermont. The low pulls offshore
allowing warm to hot weather to return briefly to the area on
Thursday. A weak cold front will cross through the area late
Thursday into Thursday night with a few additional showers and
storms, followed by seasonably warm summer weather for the upcoming
holiday weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 316 AM EDT Wednesday...A rinse and repeat forecast
remains on track for today as pesky upper level low pressure
remains atop the region. Cyclonic flow aloft combined with ample
moisture and weak instability should be more than enough to
spark another round of showers and a few storms, especially
during the afternoon. Subtle differences in the directional flow
aloft and position of the low center argue for best coverage
across Vermont. Highs today very similar to yesterday - mid 70s
to lower 80s under light north to northeasterly flow.

Any lingering early evening showers quickly end overnight as skies
trend clear to partly cloudy. Patchy fog seems like a good bet once
again in many locales. Lows near seasonable levels from 55 to 65.

By Thursday northwesterly low to mid level flow develops as upper
low pulls well southeast and away from the region, while a weak
backdoor surface front approaches from the north late. This latter
feature will likely spark a few/scattered showers/storms by late
afternoon across northern counties, a few of which may contain gusty
winds. However, organized severe weather is not expected given
rather poor lapse rates aloft and lower-end 0-6km shear values
mainly less than 30 knots. This will be the warmest day of the
forecast period with highs topping out in the mid to upper 80s in
many areas and locally near 90 in portions of the St. Lawrence and
Champlain Valleys.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT/...
As of 340 PM EDT Tuesday...The better focus for precipitation
will be with a backdoor cold front late into evening into the
overnight hours. Upstream instability and shear should allow
storms to develop over southern Quebec Province, aided by a jet
streak aloft. The question becomes whether that convection can
sustain itself during the evening hours as it heads into our
environment of less shear, waning instability, and lack of
inflow ahead of the convection. The front will slowly sag south
and may not be clear of the area by Friday morning. Thus,
another warm night with upper 50s to mid 60s will be in store.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 340 PM EDT Tuesday...Still looking at some scattered convection
across the Adirondacks and south-central Vermont as a weak cold
front slowly sags south on Friday. Then, large scale ridging off to
the west tries to nose into our region, but will flatten as it comes
in. This will maintain northwest flow aloft that will allow weak,
embedded shortwaves to cross the area into the new week. With above
normal temperatures (mid to upper 80s) and dewpoints in the lower
60s, diurnally driven showers and thunderstorms will be possible
each day.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Through 06Z Thursday...A mix of conditions expected overnight
with variable cloud cover and a few showers at KMPV/KRUT. VFR
expected at KMSS, otherwise a mix of MVFR/IFR/LIFR expected
depending on terminal. Winds light. Conditions will lift to VFR
after 13/14z with scattered showers and a few thunderstorms
expected after 16Z, mainly at Vermont terminals as winds trend
north to northeasterly 4 to 8 kts.

Outlook...

Thursday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA.
Thursday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight
chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA.
Friday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA, Slight
chance TSRA.
Friday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
Independence Day: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
Saturday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Sunday: VFR. Chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMG
NEAR TERM...JMG
SHORT TERM...Haynes
LONG TERM...Haynes
AVIATION...JMG


 
 
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