000
FXUS61 KBTV 191942
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
342 PM EDT Sat Aug 19 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
A trough of low pressure will move through northern New
York and New England tonight. The threat for isolated showers will
continue through late evening, then taper off with the arrival of
drier air after midnight. High pressure will build in for Sunday and
Monday, with favorable conditions to view the eclipse on Monday.
Temperatures will be seasonably warm, with highs Sunday in the mid
70s to lower 80s, and into the 80s for Monday. Overnight lows will
be in the upper 50s and 60s. Another low pressure system will renew
chances for showers and thunderstorms Tuesday and Wednesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
As of 144 PM EDT Saturday...Scattered to broken clouds with
some isolated showers mainly over the Adirondacks and into the
Champlain valley. Any shower will be brief and light.
Temperatures warming into the upper 70s to low 80s at early
afternoon and just about at their daytime highs. Earlier
forecast tracking along well and no changes needed.

Broad southwesterly flow today as the forecast area is between
a ridge to our east and an approaching trough to the west.
Boundary layer flow mainly south to southwesterly, and plentiful
low level moisture feeding cloud coverage and scattered showers.
A little bit of instability from what sun reaches the ground
fueling isolated showers, but little if any forcing/lift.

500 mb trough will sweep west to east through the region
tonight. Surface trough follows along, and while not big airmass
change for cooling temperatues a westerly wind component will
advect drier air into the forecast area. Isolated showers
possible mainly before midnight and in northeast Vermont in
lingering low level moisture and as upper trough passes.
Surface dewpoints will fall from mid 60s into the 50s from west
to east overnight. Still quite a bit of cloud cover tonight, and
along with dewpoints will limit cooling of overnight lows to
55-65 degrees.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 340 PM EDT Saturday...Brief 500 mb shortwave ridging
Sunday night, otherwise upper flow is predominately zonal
westerly. A surface high centered over PA on Sunday will move to
off the Delmarva coast by Monday, with surface ridging nosing
north into New England. Quiet weather will result, although
building heights and more sunshine will warm temperatures a few
degrees each day. Highs Sunday 75 to 85, while Monday will be
solidly in the 80s. 850 mb and 925 mb temps support 87 at KBTV
on Monday. Increase in humidity Monday as the surface ridge
shifts east and return flow brings surface dewpoints well into
the 60s especially in the St. Lawrence valley.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 340 PM EDT Saturday...pretty decent agreement with the
12z suite of models for the week. Generally letting the model
blend ride, especially for Wednesday onward. No big changes to
the overall scenario expected, though some of the details -
especially for Tuesday -- appear to becoming a bit more clear.
The models have shifting back a little faster such that we have
better timing with the combo of strong dynamics and instability
with peak afternoon heating, suggesting an increased chance of
organized strong convection and locally heavy rains late
Tuesday. Still rather far out in time to lock down any specific
details, but some of the model guidance did catch my attention.
For the daily details, keep on reading.

Monday night: For most of the region, it will be quiet --
however can`t rule out an isolated shower out across the St
Lawrence Valley and close to the Canadian border. This is from
the initial surge of moisture that will be moving across the
region in a deepening southwest flow. Dewpoints will also start
to increase overnight, so a little muggy feeling.

Tuesday/Tuesday Night: This is the time period the latest model
runs are now focussing in. Potentially a very active 12-18
hours. Upper trough will be moving into the Great Lakes, and
promote the development of a fairly deep surface low for this
time of the year (sub 1000mb). Potent system will also have a
pretty strong low/mid level jet, with 850mb winds 40-50 knots,
which will be spreading into northern NY by afternoon. All the
models show pretty solid amount of instability, with the NAM the
most unstable (probably too high with dewpoints). There is some
question as to how much sun we`ll see, which will also have an
impact on high temperatures and instability, but bottom line
we`ll have instability and strong dynamics in place. Noted that
SPC had shown a day 4 slight risk just southwest of our region,
but that was based on the 00z models, which were a little slower
in timing. Also noted a good slug of moisture with this system,
with precipitable water values nearing 2.0". That suggests
locally heavy rainfall is a good bet as well, and based on some
model signals, rainfall totals over 1 inch will probably occur.
Bottom line, we`ll have to keep watch for how later model runs
trend. Could be a busy weather day/evening with strong/severe
t-storms and locally heavy rain. As they say on TV, "Stay Tuned
for later updates".

Wednesday: Based on the 12z guidance timing, looks like residual
showers will be around in the morning and diminishing by
afternoon as the surface front moves through. Given some
uncertainity in model trends, have kept in a fairly wide
timeframe for the chance of showers, though in reality we might
be sunny and dry for the afternoon.

Thursday/Friday/Saturday: large scale broad upper trough will be
settling in across the eastern half of the US. For sensible
weather in our region, it looks like an extended period of
slightly below normal temperatures but relatively dry/comfy
weather. Have a very small chance for a brief light shower
across the higher terrain of northern VT and northern NY for
Thursday, but otherwise chances for rain are less than 10%
Friday and Saturday. Highs will range from the upper 60s in
higher elevations to lower 70s in the valleys.


&&

.AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Through 12Z Sunday...VFR visibility and vfr sct-bkn sky cover
through late evening with plentiful low level moisture.
Ceilings lowering to IFR in the Adirondacks/KSLK and MVFR in
Green Mountains/KMPV 06-13z timeframe with passage of upper
trough. After 12-13z vfr scattered clouds. Surface winds
southwest to west.

Outlook...

Sunday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Monday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Monday Night: VFR. Slight Chance SHRA.
Tuesday: VFR. Chance SHRA...Slight Chance TSRA.
Tuesday Night: VFR/MVFR. Likely SHRA.
Wednesday: VFR. Chance SHRA.
Wednesday Night: VFR. Slight Chance SHRA.
Thursday: VFR. Slight Chance SHRA.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Hanson
NEAR TERM...Hanson
SHORT TERM...Hanson
LONG TERM...Nash
AVIATION...Hanson