658
FXUS61 KBTV 260812
AFDBTV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Burlington VT
412 AM EDT Sun May 26 2019
.SYNOPSIS...
A warm front will push into the area this evening with
widespread rainfall expected along with a few non-severe
thunderstorms. Precipitation tapers off for Sunday as a weak
cold front drops through the area and high pressure builds in
from the west. Fair and mainly dry weather continues through
Tuesday before more unsettled conditions return for the later
half of the work week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 409 AM EDT Sunday...The line of showers that brought rainfall
to the region overnight has exited to the east, with only some
isolated lingering light showers remaining this morning. In the
wake of the rain, plenty of low stratus clouds remain over the
area as low-level moisture is trapped near the surface. These
low clouds will lift some through the morning as mixing heights
slightly increase, but not expecting too much in the way of
sunshine until after a weak cold front moves through midday.
The frontal passage should mainly be a dry one, although a light
midday shower or two can`t be ruled out. The trend of
diminishing the weak thunderstorm threat for today continues as
models have latched on to an earlier passage of the front (late
this morning into early afternoon). The earlier timing will
severely limit the amount of destabilization the atmosphere
undergoes before the boundary moves through, especially with the
amount of low clouds persisting through the morning. In
addition, the mid and upper- levels of the atmosphere are very
dry this morning, which will further limit thunderstorm
potential.
Once the front moves through this afternoon, mixing heights will
increase, allowing for any remaining low clouds to mix out and for
the development of some fair weather cumulus clouds in their place.
Winds will shift to the north this afternoon and become a little
breezy as the front moves through. Temperatures today will be rather
warm, with highs reaching the mid to upper 70s in valley locations
and low 70s in higher elevations.
High pressure will build over the area overnight tonight, which will
lead to clearing skies and diminishing winds. Overnight lows will
be in the upper 40s to around 50.
A weak cold front will move through from the north during the
afternoon Monday. Moisture will be very limited as the front moves
through, but can`t rule some isolated light showers associated with
the frontal passage. Temperatures Monday will be slightly below
normal due to the continued northerly cold air advection, but
overall Monday should be a pleasant late spring day with highs in
the 60s.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT/...
As of 336 PM EDT Saturday...A weak boundary will cross the area
Monday morning bringing mainly an increase in clouds with scattered
light showers possible across the high peaks of the Greens and
Adirondacks, and the Northeast Kingdom...not expecting any real
measurable precipitation with this front. Behind this winds will
turn out the north/northwest as high Canadian high pressure moves
overhead. Clouds clear briefly towards 00z before high clouds
increase once again as decaying convection from the midwest advects
eastward. High temperatures on Monday will be slightly below normal
for the northern areas in the mid to upper 60s and near normal
around 70 for much of the Champlain Valley and central/eastern VT.
Lows Monday night will be below normal in the low to mid 40s.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 336 PM EDT Saturday...Still some uncertainty in the
northeastern extent of a shortwave passing close to the area on
Tuesday. NAM/GFS/Canadian solutions graze Rutland and Windsor
counties (and points south) but keep much of the area mainly dry,
while ECMWF has widespread precipitation (with highest amounts
across southern areas) across the North Country...Euro outlier at
this point so have trended towards a more dry forecast, however have
included mention for chances for precipitation with greatest
likelihood Tuesday PM.
The active pattern continues for much of the remainder of the
extended as subtropical ridge across southeast US continues to pivot
systems over the North Country. Currently looking like widely
scattered showers Wednesday and Thursday with the potential for
embedded thunderstorms. PWATs increase once again with both of these
systems to around 1.5" with good fetch of Gulf moisture. Still a
little far out but we will continue to monitor for any
convective/hydro threats.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Through 06Z Monday...A line of showers is departing the area to
the east, leaving in its wake plenty of low-level moisture with
variable ceilings across the forecast area. The northern
Adirondacks and Saint Lawrence Valley will see the lowest
ceilings overnight, with IFR/LIFR cigs expected at KSLK and KMSS
through 12Z. Other TAF sites will be mainly prevailing VFR
through the night, but have included some temporary MVFR
ceilings as low stratus clouds linger over the area. After 13Z,
expect improvement to widespread VFR conditions for the
remainder of the TAF period. A cold front will move through
between 18Z and 00Z today, resulting in a wind shift from
southerly wind this morning to northwesterly wind tonight.
Outlook...
Memorial Day: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Monday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday: VFR. Chance SHRA.
Tuesday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA.
Wednesday: Mainly MVFR, with local VFR possible. Chance SHRA.
Wednesday Night: Mainly MVFR, with areas IFR possible. Likely
SHRA.
Thursday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance SHRA,
Slight chance TSRA.
&&
.MARINE...
As of 323 PM EDT Saturday...A Lake Wind Advisory is in effect
tonight as south winds increase into the 15 to 25 kt range. This
will create a light to modest chop on open waters and in bays
with southerly exposures. Steadier rainfall this evening will
also reduce visibility to below 5 miles at times, especially
late this afternoon and this evening. Small craft should
exercise caution
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...RSD
NEAR TERM...RSD
SHORT TERM...LaRocca
LONG TERM...LaRocca
AVIATION...RSD
MARINE...JMG
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