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  Tuesday April 13, 2021

 

NWS Area Forecast Discussion


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FXUS61 KBTV 120839
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
439 AM EDT Mon Apr 12 2021

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak occluded front will remain stalled across central New York
through this morning, keeping showers just to our south and west
today. Otherwise, dry conditions are expected through the middle of
next week with high pressure building back across the region.
Temperatures will be a little cooler than what we have observed as
of late but we will still see values 5 to 15 degrees above normal.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 350 AM EDT Monday...The persistent area of rain that has
remained just to our south and west overnight will wane through the
day today as the backdoor frontal boundary shifts southwest and
drier air wins out. The best chances for rain in our forecast area
will be along and south of a Ogdensburg to Newcomb to Rutland to
Windsor line, mainly through the early morning hours. Otherwise,
expect decreasing cloud cover from northeast to southwest, with
partly sunny conditions to prevail just about everywhere by sunset.
Temperatures will be cooler today than yesterday, ranging from the
mid 50s in far eastern VT to the lower 60s in the St Lawrence
Valley. The drier weather will linger tonight and Tuesday as ridging
returns to the North Country. After dropping into the the mid 30s to
lower 40s tonight, temperatures will warm back into the 60s areawide
with a mix of sun and clouds.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 350 AM EDT Monday...When in drought, leave it out. Guidance has
trended drier and warmer for Wednesday as the bowling ball of a low
pressure system to our west loses some oomph. That system will run
into a narrow upper level ridge building northward along the east
coast Tuesday night in the wake of the wave that passed to our south
early in the week. So yet again, looking at scattered at best rain
showers for this time frame. Clouds, unlikely to produce significant
precipitation with the upper level height rises and dry low-level
air, will move through the area from west to east, especially early
Wednesday. This may help keep temperatures from getting too chilly
even with the lack of wind. During the daytime, went towards warmer
guidance with highs in the 60 to 65 range in most areas, with ample
sunshine, especially towards the north and east farther from the
occluded low. Overall, it should be another pleasant day for outdoor
activities with gentle breezes associated with surface heating as
winds aloft remain light.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 438 AM EDT Monday...We continue to monitor increasing precipitation chances for late in
the week. While scattered showers remain possible over the region
Wednesday night into Thursday associated with the system mentioned
in the short term period, a more organized surface low pressure area
will be developing to our south. Models are better clustered around
a more amplified storm system tracking northward on Thursday in
advance of upper-level energy, then eastward on Friday as the
strengthening low gets captured by the upper-level system. This
scenario results in a longer duration storm with heavier
precipitation mainly confined just to our south. As such, offering a
chance of rain for upwards of 36 hours for much of the area from
Thursday through Friday. Anticipate being able to fine-tune the
precipitation forecast over the next couple of days if trends
continue, with a sharp north/west cutoff supporting a gradient of
wet and dry weather somewhere over our forecast area. Precipitation
type will also be a concern. The nor`easter will also generate a
temperature gradient with marginally cold air under the low pressure
system. Sufficiently cold air aloft in southern portions of the
region will support a mix of rain and snow in the southern Green
Mountains and Adirondacks, with light accumulations possible in the
highest terrain. Even in valley locations wet-bulb cooling may be
sufficient to produce some wet snow if precipitation is heavy
enough, particularly Thursday night/early Friday in southern and
eastern Vermont. For now, have temperatures ranging through the 40s
and 50s on Friday but may need to significantly bring down these
values across southern zones if the storm lingers.

With the steering flow taking the storm system eastward rather than
northward on Friday, it is becoming increasingly likely that fair
weather will return for the weekend as weak ridging slides eastward
into the North Country. Temperatures will be near or a bit above
seasonable values, with Sunday a bit warmer than Saturday.
Precipitation chances are minimal during this period, although an
approaching shortwave on Sunday may spark showers during the late
day period.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Through 06Z Tuesday...VFR conditions will persist through the 24
hour TAF period as a frontal boundary remains draped from the
southern St Lawrence Valley into southern VT. Ceilings will
mainly remain AOA 5000 ft, with local ceilings around 3500 ft at
KRUT. Light rain or VCSH possible at KRUT overnight/early Monday
morning, but no impacts are expected. East to southeast winds 5
to 10 kt through much of the period, with gustiness at KMSS and
KRUT.

Outlook...

Tuesday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
Wednesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Thursday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Slight chance
SHRA.
Thursday Night: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Slight
chance SHRA.
Friday: Mainly MVFR, with local VFR possible. Chance SHRA.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Hastings
NEAR TERM...Hastings
SHORT TERM...Kutikoff
LONG TERM...Kutikoff
AVIATION...Hastings


 
 
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