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  Monday June 26, 2017


NWS Area Forecast Discussion

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FXUS61 KBTV 241139

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
739 AM EDT Sat Jun 24 2017

Showers will be moving east out of the area as the morning
wears on today. Sunshine is also expected to develop as well.
Highs will be a few degrees above normal today then return to
seasonal normals on Sunday as clouds increasing along with the
chance for showers. Unsettled weather is expected for much of
next week with chances for showers just about everyday.
Temperatures will be slightly below normal through midweek then
slightly above normal for the end of the week.


As of 722 AM EDT Saturday...With this update have slowed the
rate of clearing skies and departure of precip as the front has
hung up before entering the Champlain Valley. Dewpoints also
slower to fall than forecast and have brought them up a few
degrees. While northern NY dewpoints have fallen to near 60,
Champlain Valley remains muggy with dewpoints around 70. Radar
showing showers filling in southern Champlain valley in advance
of the surface boundary, so have increase pops for Vermont
through the morning. Still believe there will be a late morning
lull in rain before instability and PVA aloft help trigger more
showers mainly in the north.

Previous discussion...Transition day today with "cold" front
moving west to east through the forecast area and lower humidity
air advecting in from the northwest. The line of showers we`ve
been watching all night has moved east of Champlain valley ahead
of the front, and will continue on eastward during pre- dawn
hours and exit Vermont. Front has moved out of St. Lawrence
Valley into the northern Adirondacks with surface winds turning
westerly in St. Lawrence and Franklin counties NY and dewpoints
starting to fall into the 60s. Light convection firing to the
south in the central Adirondacks, while 88D radar picking up a
fine line signature to the north.

Today through tonight a full latitude upper trough deepens
across the east central US with southwest flow over the
northeast. A shortwave trough moving out of the mean trough will
pass over the area this morning through mid day. Shortwave along
with forecast CAPE 500-700 j/kg near the Canadian border will
keep chance pops alive mainly in the north. Noticeably drier
air works in this afternoon and overnight, and along with a
shortwave ridge aloft will diminish rain chances overnight.
Front is cold in name only, with temperatures in the 70s to low
80s today. 850 mb temps support a few degrees warmer, however
clouds around should limit the potential. Cooler temperatures
tonight, with lows in the 50s.


As of 357 AM EDT Saturday...Shortwave trough will be moving
into the area on Sunday...especially during the afternoon hours.
Thus looking at increasing clouds and increasing chances for
showers. Highs will generally be in the 70s. The shortwave
trough exits the area Sunday night and most of the precipitation
will exit the area as well. Another shortwave trough moves in
on Monday and as a result...plenty of clouds will persist and
chances for showers will increase once again during the
afternoon hours. Highs will be in the upper 60s to mid 70s.


As of 357 AM EDT Saturday...Overall still looking at an
unsettled period. An upper level trough of low pressure will
exist over eastern Canada and the Northeast through midweek. A
series of shortwave troughs will move through the trough and
enhance the potential for showers right through midweek. Below
normal temperatures are expected during this period. The pattern
will change for Thursday and Friday as flow aloft becomes more
westerly. Temperatures will warm up with highs in the mid 70s to
lower 80s. With the upper flow remaining more westerly over our
area...the chances for showers and storms will exist.


Through 12Z Sunday...VFR/MVFR conditions will exist through 16z
before becoming VFR all areas. The MVFR conditions will be in
response to lower ceilings and scattered rain showers. As just
mentioned VFR conditions develop everywhere after 16z as low
level moisture thins and ceilings generally range from 4000-5000
feet. Eventually by 00z skies should become clear at all
locations and as winds become less than 5 knots...looking at low
clouds and fog developing after 06z. This will result in MVFR
and IFR conditions at all locations with the potential for VLIFR
conditions at KSLK and KMPV. Winds will become west and
northwest later this morning with speeds under 15 knots...then
go back to the southwest around 00z and taper off in speed.


Sunday: VFR. Chance SHRA.
Sunday Night: VFR.
Slight Chance SHRA.
Monday: VFR. Chance SHRA.
Monday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA.
Tuesday: VFR. Likely SHRA.
Tuesday Night: VFR. Slight Chance SHRA.
Wednesday: VFR. Chance SHRA.




NEAR TERM...Hanson
SHORT TERM...Evenson
LONG TERM...Evenson

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