791
FXUS61 KBTV 301816
AFDBTV
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
216 PM EDT Thu Oct 30 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
A period of gusty easterly downslope winds are expected along the
western slopes of the Green Mountains this evening, where a wind
advisory for localized gusts in the 45 to 55 mph range is in effect.
Occasional rain will continue overnight into Friday with the
heaviest precipitation amounts over northern New York. Blustery
gusty westerly winds develop on Friday afternoon with rain showers
mixing with snow showers over the higher terrain by Friday night. A
light snow accumulation is likely by Saturday morning above 1000
feet.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 216 PM EDT Thursday...Wind advisory for the western slopes
continues until 5 AM Friday for localized wind gusts of 45 to 55 mph
with isolated to scattered power outages possible. Bennington, VT
has gusted to 51 mph at 12:52 PM today, with Danby up to 40 mph and
Mendon at 36 mph. These winds will continue to expand northward
along the western slopes this evening with peak winds expected btwn
5 PM and midnight. HRRR/RAP continues to 55 to 60 knots near 500`
AGL, while NAM/ARW is slightly less. The big question continues to
be mixing potential, as soundings indicate inversion height near or
just below summit level, while top of the mixed layer winds
fluctuate btwn 35 and 50 knots, depending upon the source. Latest
12z HREF still indicating mean gusts of 50 to 60 mph, while prob of
wind gusts >45 mph is in the 55 to 70% range along the western
slopes. Still some uncertainty on how far away from the trrn the
gusts propagate downstream of the spine. The Froude Number is <1.0,
which indicates flow is subcritical/blocked and favors potential gap
winds on the western slopes.
Meanwhile, GOES 19 water vapor shows deepening and closed 7h/5h
cyclonic circulation over western PA with elongated sfc low pre from
near Erie PA to the eastern shore of VA. Sfc low pres wl cont to
strengthen as it moves northward acrs our cwa on Friday. Strong
easterly flow wl enhance deep moisture advection and produce several
more rounds of rain tonight into Friday. The heaviest axis of rain
wl continue to be focused over the SLV and northern Dacks. I have
continued pops near 100% thru tonight, with some breaks likely in
favorable downslope shadowing areas of the Green Mtns and parts of
the NEK of VT. Rainfall generally 0.25" to 0.75" with isolated
amounts over 1.0 likely SLV. Temps hold steady in the 40s overnight
with some warming possible due to downslope flow.
On Friday sfc low pres is progged to be sub 980mb just north of the
International Border by 18z, which wl change our wind direction to a
west/southwest by mid aftn and west/northwest by Friday evening.
This change in wind direction wl quickly advect in much cooler air
aloft with rain changing to snow acrs the northern Dacks above 1500
feet by sunset. Trends have been our friend if you are looking for
snowfall with change over occurring in the central/northern Greens
btwn 8 PM and 11 PM Friday evening. Snow level look to drop to
around 1000 feet by 12z Sat, as progged 925mb temps drop btwn -2C
and -3C, while progged 850mb temps are in the -3C to -5C. The
ingredients look favorable for a period of upslope rain and snow
showers on Friday night with good 850 to 700mb rh >80%, strong 850mb
winds of 35 to 45 knots, and moderately strong caa. This wl help to
enhance precip with highest pops/qpf acrs the favorable upslope
areas of northern Dacks and central/northern Greens. Snow
accumulations range from dusting to 2 inches btwn 1000 and 2000 feet
and 1 to 3 inches btwn 2000 and 3500 feet and up to 4 or 5 inches
above 3500 feet by mid morning Sat. I have tried to highlight this
thinking in the latest storm total snow grids. Did utilize the
NAM3KM hourly temps in grids to show cooler air moving into the area
faster, especially acrs the higher trrn on Friday evening.
Next issue is gusty west/northwest winds along the eastern side of
the Dacks and Green Mtns late Friday aftn into Friday night.
Soundings show inversion near summit level with top of the mixed
layer winds of 40 to 45 knots, which should support localized gusts
in the 35 to 45 mph range. The inversion height pushing toward the
sfc should help to enhance winds on eastern side of the trrn on
Friday night. A few power outage are possible again on Friday night.
Lows range from the mid 20s to m/upper 30s near Lake Champlain.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
As of 216 PM EDT Thursday...Upslope rain and snow showers wl slowly
taper off on Sat with blustery and chilly conditions prevailing.
Highs generally in the mid 30s to mid 40s, except only upper 20s
summits. Could we see the guns fire atop Killington this weekend?
Otherwise a general drying trend is anticipated by Sat night with
lows back in the lower 20s to mid 30s.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 131 PM EDT Thursday...Next week will start with mainly dry
weather and decreasing clouds as high pressure drifts eastward
across the mid-Atlantic on Sunday and temperatures struggle to
reach into the 40s and lower 50s in the afternoon. The day
might also be a bit brisk with wind gusts out of the
west/northwest 15-20 mph, decreasing Sunday night as lows fall
into a seasonable mid 20s to mid 30s. Monday, an upper level
trough and associated surface low pressure is expected to dig
into the region from around James Bay in Canada, advecting
milder air into the forecast area from the southwest. Highs will
get slightly above normal again in the upper 40s and 50s and
lows in the 30s and lower 40s Monday and Monday night.
Meanwhile, we`ll see the gradient tighten again and a low level
jet up to 55-60 knots at 850mb over the area bring gusty winds
at the surface west to southwest gusts up to 20-30 mph, higher
on mountaintops. A cold frontal boundary is anticipated to cross
the forecast area Monday evening and night, bringing with it
increased chances of precipitation about 50-80%, mostly rain
except in the higher terrain some snow overnight. This should
return highs to the 40s and lower 50s and lows in the 20s and
30s along with scattered terrain/upslope precipitation through
the midweek. High pressure will build in again from the
southeastern United States around Wednesday, but most global
models tee up another system for the late week as well.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Through 18Z Friday...Rain can be seen pushing north and east
across the forecast area this afternoon associated with a low
pressure system centered over the Ohio Valley, bringing with it
low ceilings, particularly at TAF site KMSS, which can expect
ceilings to remain below 800 feet above ground level through at
least 00Z-02Z Friday. KSLK, KMPV, and KRUT are reporting
ceilings 600-1500 feet AGL, though with easterly to
northeasterly flow present, we`re not expecting ceilings stay at
IFR levels in a sustained fashion until perhaps around the time
frame 09Z-16Z Friday when most sites are likely to have
prolonged IFR ceilings. Until then, these sites will likely
bounce between VFR and MVFR ceilings with occasional drops to
IFR cigs.
Any heavier rain shower may bring visibilities down this
evening and tonight, though confidence is not high on where and
when this will occur. Main area of rain lifts north of the
international border tomorrow morning, and we may see a bit of a
break in the precipitation as low pressure moves directly
overhead and some drier air briefly works into the region.
However, showers will start to fill back in from west to east
late Friday afternoon as low pressure shifts into eastern New
England. Gusty to locally strong winds and LLWS are expected to
continue this afternoon through the overnight hours. The
strongest gusts will be at KRUT up to 35-40kts from the
southeast, with up to 30kts at KSLK also from the southeast, and
25-30kts at KMSS and SLK from the northeast.
Outlook...
Friday Night: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Windy with
gusts to 30 kt. Definite SHRA, Likely SHSN.
Saturday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance SHRA,
Chance SHSN.
Saturday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight
chance SHRA, Slight chance SHSN.
Sunday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. NO SIG WX.
Sunday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA.
Monday: VFR. Chance SHRA.
Monday Night: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Chance SHRA.
Tuesday: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. Chance SHRA.
&&
.EQUIPMENT...
The TYX radar is down until further notice after a hardware
failure occurred. Replacement parts have been ordered and will
be installed. There is no ETA on its return to service.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...Wind Advisory until 5 AM EDT Friday for VTZ006-011-016>019.
NY...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Taber
NEAR TERM...Taber
SHORT TERM...Taber
LONG TERM...Storm
AVIATION...Storm
EQUIPMENT...BTV
|
