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  Monday January 21, 2019

 

NWS Area Forecast Discussion


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000
FXUS61 KBTV 200917
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Burlington VT
417 AM EST Sun Jan 20 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
Winter storm conditions will continue across the North Country today
with periods of heavy snow and blowing snow, especially this morning
where 1 to 2 inch per hour snowfall rates are likely, making for
hazardous travel. As low pressure departs to our east tonight,
frigid temperatures and very low wind chills are expected to develop
and continue through Monday night. Temperatures will moderate back
into the teens on Tuesday, and into the low to mid 30s Wednesday
when another storm system will bring another round of snow showers
with some rain possible in the deeper valleys.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 416 AM EST Sunday...Winter storm warnings continue across the
North Country today as surface low pressure over the central
Appalachians this morning tracks to the tip of Cape Cod by later
this afternoon and then off into the Gulf of St. Lawrence tonight.
Little overall change was made to the forecast this morning but
there are a few challenging parts to talk about. First and foremost
is snow ratios and temps. Models continue to struggle mightily with
low level cold air advection persisting down the Champlain and St.
Lawrence Valleys where temperatures as of 4AM are still in the
single digit below zero. Elsewhere across the central Adirondacks
and central/southern Vermont where the 925mb flow has shifted
southeasterly, temps have risen into the single digits and teens
above zero. A handful of reports upstream indicate where
southeasterly flow is more prevalent, snow ratios have been ranged
from 10-20:1, while here at BTV where temps are much colder we`ve
seen mostly needles falling with very low ratios in the 8-12:1
range. Ratios have increased recently across the Champlain Valley as
a mesoscale band associated with an enhanced ribbon of 700mb fgen is
lifting through, but expect after it passes we`ll be back into lower
ratios again until later this morning when better 850mb fgen will
pivot through the area. All told, I`ve lowered our snow totals a
couple inches from the previous forecast based on the lower snow
ratios, but we`re still highlighting a general 10-15" from the
Adirondacks westward through Vermont, with lower totals of 7-9"
across the St. Lawrence Valley through this afternoon.

Snow tapers off later this afternoon and for this evening through
Monday the focus shifts towards rapidly falling temperatures and
areas of blowing snow as low pressure exits eastward and arctic high
pressure begins to build in from the west. Strong pressure gradient
between these features will support winds gusting 25-35 mph and when
combined with temperatures falling well below zero, dangerously cold
wind chills of -25F to -40F are likely. We`ve hoisting a wind chill
warning for tonight through Monday mid-day, with some additional
snowfall likely across northern areas as the parent upper level low
shifts over the region and some enhanced 700mb moisture rotates in
from the north. Could see an additional 2-4", and perhaps 6" at the
higher elevations late tonight through Monday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 307 AM EST Sunday...Dangerously cold wind chill continue
Monday night with values between -20 to -40 below, with coldest
values across the northern Dacks into the central and northern
Greens.

Deep closed mid/upper level circulation and associated sfc low pres
will be lifting across eastern Canada while 1039mb high pres builds
into our cwa. This continues to support brisk northwest winds thru
06z at 10 to 15 knots with localized gusts. However, expect winds to
slowly weaken toward sunrise, as high pres builds into the cwa,
especially over northern NY and temps will fall quickly btwn 09z-
12z. Expecting lows btwn -5f and -25f with coldest values over the
northern dacks/parts of the SLV. Any lingering snow shower activity
will quickly end over the northern Greens by 03z, soundings show
limited moisture.

By Tuesday, low level waa develops as winds shift to the southwest
and sfc high pres moves into eastern New England. Tues will be dry
with temps warming back into the teens. The warming trend continues
overnight Tuesday Night with strong low level waa on breezy 850mb
winds of 30 to 40 knots. Progged 925mb temps warm btwn -4c and -10c
by 12z Weds with increasing clouds and snow showers developing by
sunrise. NEK will see temps fall quickly in the evening, before all
areas warm into the mid teens to mid 20s with likely pops entering
the slv by 12z Weds.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 307 AM EST Sunday...The combination of waa lift/moisture will
produce a period of mainly snow showers on Weds morning.
Initially thermal profiles support all snow with 925mb to 850mb
temps <0c thru 18z, before 925mb temps warm above 0c across the
slv/western dacks. Thinking as temps warm enough to support a
mix, best lift/moisture will be exiting our cwa, with just some
lingering light rain/snow showers possible. In addition, gusty
850mb southwest winds of 40 to 50 knots will create some
shadowing across the cpv on Weds, which will limit qpf/snowfall.
A general 1 to 3 inches likely with localized 4 inch amounts
for high peaks and northern Greens. Temps warming mainly 20s
east of the greens to mid 30s.

Uncertainty develops associated with potential wave along the
boundary on Weds Night into Thurs. In addition, plenty of
uncertainty with regards to low level thermal profiles and
associated ptype. Have kept things simple for now with high chc/low
likely pops and rain or snow showers. System sweeps off the east
coast overnight Thursday with much cooler air arriving for Friday
into the weekend. Some lingering mountain snow showers are possible
with temps falling back to below normal values.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Through 06Z Monday...IFR/LIFR vsby and IFR/MVFR cigs will
continue through the next 24 hours as a winter storm affects
the area with widespread moderate to locally heavy snow. The
heaviest snow with vsby 1/2SM or less will affect terminals in
the 08-16Z time frame in general with some sleet possibly mixing
in at KRUT from 12-00Z. Snow lightens in intensity beyond
16-18Z as storm starts to pull away but northerly winds gusting
>20kts will keep vsby IFR or below at many sites in BLSN through
the remainder of the period. Exception on winds will be KRUT
where strong east-southeasterlies will develop shortly and last
through the daylight hours. Some LLWS is possible at KRUT as
well during the overnight as a low level jet traverses southern
Vermont.

Outlook...

Martin Luther King Jr Day: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible.
Chance SHSN.
Monday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday Night: VFR. Chance SHSN.
Wednesday: Mainly MVFR and IFR, with areas VFR possible. Likely
SHSN, Likely SHRA.
Wednesday Night: Mainly MVFR, with local VFR possible. Chance
SHSN.
Thursday: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Likely SHSN.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...Winter Storm Warning until 4 PM EST this afternoon for
     VTZ001>012-016>019.
     Wind Chill Warning from 6 PM this evening to 1 PM EST Monday
     for VTZ001>012-016>019.
NY...Winter Storm Warning until 4 PM EST this afternoon for
     NYZ026>031-034-035-087.
     Wind Chill Warning from 6 PM this evening to 1 PM EST Monday
     for NYZ026>031-034-035-087.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Lahiff
NEAR TERM...Lahiff
SHORT TERM...Taber
LONG TERM...Taber
AVIATION...Lahiff


 
 
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