FXUS61 KBTV 161732
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
132 PM EDT Mon Oct 16 2017
Canadian high pressure will build into the area today with
variably cloudy skies and seasonably cool temperatures as winds
slowly relax. Clear skies tonight will aid in chilly
temperatures with areas of frost and freezing temperatures
expected. High pressure remains atop the region for the
remainder of the week with fair weather expected along with a
steady warming trend.
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 1130 AM EDT Monday...Opted to lower max temperatures by
1-3 degrees or so based off current observational trends, which
are running cooler than prior indications. This will keep most
readings steady in the 40s to around 50 this afternoon.
Remainder of the forecast left unchanged.
Surface ridge axis builds into our region from the Great Lakes
tonight, and increased subsidence and lighter winds will allow
stratus and stratocu to break up toward/after sunset. Will see
good radiational cooling with lows ranging from the mid 20s
across the nrn Adirondacks and nern VT, to the mid 30s across
the Champlain Islands. The local frost/freeze program remains
active across the Champlain Valley. As a result, have issued
freeze warnings in the Champlain Valley (05-12Z Tuesday),
except a frost advisory for the Champlain Islands with the
moderating influence of the warm lake temps (still in the low
Sfc ridge axis translates to our east Tuesday allowing a
southerly return flow of 10-15 mph to set up. This will begin a
moderating temperature trend under mostly clear skies. Should
see high temperatures in the 55-60F range. PoPs NIL.
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 338 AM EDT Monday...High pressure will dominate the
weather pattern throughout the rest of the week. Quiet and dry
conditions are expected with little in the way of weather to
speak of. Slight warm air advection will increase temps back
above normal with 925mb temps warming to +12 to +14 which will
support highs in the 60s.
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 338 AM EDT Monday...The persistent upper level ridge will
continue to build over the North Country leaving almost nil
chances for precip through the weekend. Temps will continue to
be above normal with highs in 60s and lows in the mid 40s. We
should see a slight airmass change on Thursday as a upper level
low pressure system over the Hudson Bay will try to drag a cold
front through the North Country but the system will be moisture
deprived so even if the front gets here there shouldn`t be any
chance for rain. The more likely solution is that we see some
cloud cover on Thursday into Friday and that leads to a
dampening of temperatures. The weekend looks like its going to
be another warm one as warm air advection will bring temps near
70 to the Champlain Valley with full sun. All in all the
extended is fairly quiet with calm weather expected.
.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Through 18Z Tuesday...A mix of BKN/OVC MVFR/VFR cigs will trend
mainly SKC from 06Z Tuesday onward as high pressure builds into
the region. Highest confidence of MVFR cigs at KSLK/KMPV/KRUT
terminals through 00Z Tue where a brief sprinkle will be
possible. Winds northwest 6 to 12 knots and occasionally gusty
into the 15-20 kt range at eastern terminals through 00Z before
trending light overnight. After 12Z Tuesday flow trends
southerly and slowly increases, especially from the Champlain
Tuesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Thursday: VFR. Breezy. NO SIG WX.
Thursday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Friday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Friday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Saturday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
VT...Freeze Warning from 1 AM to 8 AM EDT Tuesday for VTZ002-005-
Frost Advisory from 1 AM to 8 AM EDT Tuesday for VTZ001.
NY...Freeze Warning from 1 AM to 8 AM EDT Tuesday for NYZ028-035.