120
FXUS61 KBTV 051237
AFDBTV
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
737 AM EST Wed Nov 5 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
Wind gusts of 30 to 50 mph will be possible this evening as a strong
clipper system impacts our region with more valley rain and mountain
snow showers. Winds will be highest in the downslope regions of the
eastern Adirondacks and eastern Green mountains. Unsettled weather
will continue into the weekend. Temperatures will be near seasonable
levels for most of this week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 248 AM EST Wednesday...
* A Wind Advisory remains in effect for portions of Northern
New York and portions of northern, central, and southern
Vermont for winds 15 to 25 MPH and gusts 35 to 50 MPH from 4
PM Today until 1 PM Thursday.
A few passing clouds are lingering across northern Vermont this
morning downstream of an approaching developing strong clipper
system over the Midwest/Great Lakes. 500mb surface analysis shows
subtle ridging over the Golden Horseshoe with a shield of mid/upper
level clouds spreading eastward. While flow will become southerly
today, cloud cover and cooling air aloft will limit the diurnal
heating potential with highs a few degrees cooler than yesterday
into the mid to upper 40s. Frontogenesis along a warm front leading
the system will arrive by sunrise in northern New York with a band
of light rain/mtn snow showers. Snow will be mainly confined to
elevations above 2500 ft agl before diurnally increasing
temperatures limit any meaningful snow accumulations later in the
day. Initial QPF should be light with a dry surface, before
saturating later this afternoon. Showers will spread across the
region by this afternoon. This will be another high PoP/low QPF
situation with the quickly moving system. A strong LLJ in
association with the deepening system will increase winds aloft to
near 60 mph, with top of the mixed layer to 55 mph. Winds will
increase to 20 to 30 mph during the day Wednesday.
Wednesday night, gusty west-northwest winds will ramp up as the core
of the LLJ shifts over the region. Mean surface winds of 15 to 25
mph with gusts up to 50 mph are expected in the eastern facing
slopes of the Adirondacks and Green Mountains. The most favorable
locations for these higher winds will be between Ticonderoga and
Plattsburgh in New York, and between Ludlow and Strafford in
Vermont. Probabilities of at least 40 mph on the HREF are 80-100%
across the eastern Greens and Adirondacks, so this leads to
increasing confidence in the realization of higher winds aloft
mixing down. Winds will be the strongest from midnight Wednesday
night through sunrise Thursday morning. A Wind Advisory remains in
effect for portions of northern New York and Vermont as a result.
Outside of the wind threat, precipitation amounts have generally
lowered in the Champlain Valley as the system quickly exits by
Thursday afternoon. The best chances for precipitation will occur
with the passage of a cold front early tonight and with any
associated upslope shower activity that will follow. Expect QPF
around a few tenths in the Champlain Valley and southern Vermont
with around an inch possible in the upslope regions of the
Adirondacks and Greens, as well as the Northeast Kingdom. The cold
front could have an isolated rumble of thunder or two underneath the
low, in the southern CPV. Surface instability driven by the system
vort max, in addition from orographic uplift on the southwestern
Greens, could be enough to provide some surface CAPE to a couple
hundred J/kg. Notably, the biggest change since yesterday is that
the system center looks to pass through the region, a bit further
south, which should reduce the isolated thunder potential, albeit
chances are still non-zero. Once the cold front passes, thermal
profiles will tank with strong caa in the ADKs and western Greens.
Snow level should lower 1500ft agl by Thursday morning. For now, the
forecast shows a slushy dusting to a inch around 1500ft, 1 to 4
inches from 2000 to 3000 ft, and 4 to 8 at summit level at Mt.
Mansfield and Jay Peak. Impacts look to be minimal with snow
accumulations fairly localized to the immediate high terrain and
upper ridges, especially with surface temperatures still above
freezing. The Northeast Kingdom, particularly Essex County in
Vermont, would be the most favorable for any meaningful
accumulations, with widespread 1 to 2 inches even in the valleys
possible. Though these amounts are still expected to be below winter
weather advisory criteria. The clipper system will race off to the
east Thursday afternoon, with clearing skies areawide but cooling
temperatures into the low 30s with strong caa.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 248 AM EST Wednesday...The region should be able to dry out
with clearing skies Thursday night into Friday morning as brief high
pressure attempts to build into the area from the Mid-Atlantic.
Temperatures will cool quite rapidly behind the Thursday system with
lows into the low 20s and perhaps mid to upper teens in cool hollows
of the Adirondacks. Lake Champlain should be able to limit drastic
cooling in the Champlain Valley, but even lows to near or just below
freezing are possible. Once again, calm weather will be short lived
as another approaching system will pass to our north. A transient
low over Quebec with an associated cold front draped south will pass
through the region Friday afternoon with additional rainfall
chances. Due to positioning of the system, we should remain in the
warm sector resulting in a mainly rain event for most areas, outside
of a few wet flakes in the higher elevations at the leading edge of
the precipitation before latent heating and waa take hold.
Temperatures will remain seasonable to near 50 for daytime highs on
Friday.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 342 AM EST Wednesday...A light to moderate rainfall is on track
for Friday night as the best upper level forcing stays much to our
north, detached from the prefrontal wave that will support the
widespread rain over our area. The surface front will likely pass
through uneventfully on Saturday with a lack of a strong pressure
rise/fall couplet. As weak high pressure builds in on Saturday,
lingering showers and clouds will gradually give way to some
clearing skies.
The quiet weather still looks short lived as widespread rain
returns on Sunday. There seems to be a faster trend, with rain
increasingly likely as early as Sunday morning spreading from
southwest to northeast during the day. Given the antecedent air
mass will be marginally cold for snow, the overrunning
precipitation could begin as snow before changing over to rain.
As we get closer to the event, we`ll also have to consider a
transition period with even pockets of freezing rain given the
favorable synoptic setup with low level easterly winds and low
track to our west. Eventually, regardless of the exact storm
track and possible switch of rain back to snow before the system
winds down, we`ll see a return to westerly winds and sharply
colder air by Monday. Still looks like a favorable lake- effect
setup for Monday into Tuesday as the coldest air mass of the
season moves over the region, although it remains to be seen if
low level winds will favor an orientation south of the region or
into the northern Adirondacks and potentially Vermont if the
bands are strong enough.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Through 12Z Thursday...VFR conditions will continue through 18Z
at all sites. Thereafter, a compact and strong low pressure
system will zip eastward through the region, bringing numerous
hazards for aviation.
LLWS associated with a potent southwesterly jet will expand eastward
across southern portions of the airspace, affecting SLK, RUT, and
MPV primarily, for about 6 hours before it shifts eastward. A
secondary period of strong wind shear is possible towards 06Z on
strong northwesterly flow. At the surface, light south/southwesterly
winds early in the period will trend easterly after 18Z and increase
into the 8-12 knot range with gusts up to 20 knots, leading to the
directional shear noted with LLWS. Then the front will pass to shift
winds sharply to the west/northwest, between 01Z and 04Z. After
06Z, winds will subside gradually.
There is a band of very light precipitation arcing across the
region moving in from the west ahead of the main area of rain.
Have noted temperatures at the surface will remain cold enough
this morning for brief snow or mixed precipitation at SLK when
the band moves in, and have used a PROB30 for this. Elsewhere,
think any trace of precipitation will have no operational
effect. Otherwise, rain will begin to affect visibilities mostly
after the front nears and rain intensity increases, but mostly
flight conditions will be driven by CIGs. However, a changeover
to wet snow remains on track at SLK between 02Z and 03Z with
light snow continuing through about 10Z before diminishing. At
EFK, rain will likely mix with and change to a very wet snow
after 04Z precipitation will be all snow during the period.
Finally, at MPV rain also is expected to change to a mix of rain
and snow by 05Z, and northwesterly unblocked flow suggests this
precipitation will tend to linger through the period.
Ceilings will tend to lower from 12Z through 00Z, with
MVFR cloud bases first at MSS and SLK after 18Z and probably
holding off until after 00Z at BTV, RUT, and MPV. Sharply lower
ceilings will develop as the front moves into the airspace. As a
result, IFR conditions are currently expected at MSS, EFK, and
SLK for at least a few hours, likely at BTV, PBG, and MPV, and a
lower chance at RUT. Conditions will improve after 06Z, with
ceilings coming up to MVFR, with perhaps some lingering IFR at
SLK where it also will likely be snowing with IFR visibilities.
Outlook...
Thursday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Windy with gusts
to 30 kt. Chance SN.
Thursday Night: VFR. Slight chance FZRA.
Friday: VFR. Chance RA, Chance FZRA.
Friday Night: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Definite RA.
Saturday: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. Chance RA.
Saturday Night: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. Chance RA,
Chance SN.
Sunday: Mainly MVFR, with areas IFR possible. Likely RA, Likely
SN.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...Wind Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 1 PM EST Thursday
for VTZ005-008>011-017>021.
NY...Wind Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 1 PM EST Thursday
for NYZ034-035.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Danzig
NEAR TERM...Danzig
SHORT TERM...Danzig
LONG TERM...Kutikoff
AVIATION...Kutikoff
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