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  Tuesday June 27, 2017

 

NWS Area Forecast Discussion


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000
FXUS61 KBTV 242348
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
748 PM EDT Sat Jun 24 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
A large semi-stationary upper trough across central Canada will
keep a near daily threat of showers and a few thunderstorms
across the area through much of the upcoming week. The highest
threat of showers should occur during the afternoon and early
evening hours. Temperatures should average near early summer
seasonal norms through the period.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 749 PM EDT Saturday...Showers and thunderstorms tracking
west to east along the international border early this evening
will be diminishing over the next several hours as CAPE of 500
J/kg decreases rapidly with sunset. Elsewhere a quiet pleasant
evening continues.

By later tonight patchy mist and/or fog a definite possibility
here and there, but given cyclonic flow aloft and ambient flow
of 10-15 kts atop the nocturnal boundary layer it shouldn`t be
widespread. Adirondack/Eastern VT river valleys and favored
hollows show highest probabilities of occurrence at this point.
Low temperatures near seasonal norms mainly in the 50s.

By tomorrow the next in a seemingly endless train of shortwaves
pulls into the area by the afternoon and evening hours as we remain
under the influence of a semi-stationary longwave trough across
central Canada. Best PVA and modest instability to occur across the
northern half of the area where 40-60 pops will be maintained for
sct/numerous showers and a few thunderstorms. Pops somewhat less
further south and removed from best dynamical forcing (20-40%0.
Highs trend cooler per 925-850 mb thermal progs and higher coverage
of afternoon clouds...mainly upper 60s to mid 70s, perhaps a few
upper 70s far south.

Scattered showers then continue early Sunday evening, especially
north before waning somewhat after midnight with loss of insolation
and exiting shortwave. Variable clouds should be the rule with some
breaks as lows bottom out in the upper 40s to mid 50s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY/...
As of 239 PM EDT Saturday...A stronger shortwave in the long
string of shortwaves rotating around the broad upper trof will
increase rain chances Monday. Some instability will allow for at
least isolated thunder during the afternoon hours and have
allowed at least some limited chances for thunder in the
afternoon and early evening. Temperatures remain below normal
through Monday.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 239 PM EDT Saturday...Unsettled extended forecast
continues. An upper level trough will dominate through mid week
before the flow becomes more zonal. Despite flattening flow, the
net change on the sensible weather will be minimal though as
shortwaves will still be moving through the the zonal flow. In
addition, nearly stationary boundary will be present near the
area with increasing instability toward the end of the week.
Good chances for thunderstorms on Thursday, and again toward the
end of the week.

Below normal temperatures are expected through most of the extended,
with a warming trend from mid week and later.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Through 00Z Monday...Brief MVFR with TSRA at KMSS for the next
hour or so, otherwise VFR through 03Z with mainly SKC to
scattered cigs in the 040-080 AGL range. Winds generally
westerly becoming light after sunset. Differing signals on
degree/coverage of patchy br/fg across the area. Despite ambient
flow from 10-15 kts just off the deck, wet/near saturated soils
from recent moderate/heavy rainfall boosts confidence to bring
in patchy 2-5sm br at most terminals from 07-11Z, though
admittedly whether specific terminals actually fog in is a
matter for debate. Highest probabilities at favored terminals of
KMPV/KSLK and to a lesser extent KRUT. After 12Z Sunday VFR
returns with sct cigs from 050-090 AGL as winds trend light
south/southwesterly from 5-10 kts. A rather vigorous upper
level trof and surface based instability will bring a renewed
chance of showers and thunderstorms at all the terminals from
16z onward and for now shown as VCSH.

Outlook...

Sunday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA...Slight Chance TSRA.
Monday: VFR. Chance SHRA...Slight Chance TSRA.
Monday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA.
Tuesday: VFR. Chance SHRA.
Tuesday Night: VFR. Slight Chance SHRA.
Wednesday: VFR. Chance SHRA.
Wednesday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA...Chance TSRA.
Thursday: VFR. Chance SHRA...Chance TSRA.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMG/Sisson
NEAR TERM...JMG/Sisson
SHORT TERM...Manning
LONG TERM...Manning
AVIATION...JMG/Sisson



 
 
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