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  Tuesday March 19, 2019

 

NWS Area Forecast Discussion


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FXUS61 KBTV 171902
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Burlington VT
302 PM EDT Sun Mar 17 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
Scattered flurries and a few snow showers will persist through
tonight as another weak front crosses the area. High pressure
will then bring mainly dry and continued seasonably cool weather
to the region Monday and Tuesday. Temperatures moderate briefly
by Wednesday into Thursday with renewed chances of light rain
and snow showers before temperatures cool once again by Friday
into next Saturday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
As of 300 PM EDT Sunday...Mainly quiet weather continues over
the next 42 hours as surface high pressure is bridged aloft by
broad upper troughing. Another weak shortwave trough passage
will likely bring a window of scattered flurries/snow showers to
the area later this evening into tonight during which very
minor accumulations of a dusting to perhaps an inch will be
possible across the northern half of the forecast area. Always
hard to tease out the details in such small features, but model
consensus appears to favor steadiest activity across the higher
terrain of the Dacks and northern Greens and this is what I`ll
run with for now. Low temperatures similar to last night ranging
generally from 8 to 18 above with some variability.

Any lingering morning flurries to then give way to partly sunny
skies through the day on Monday under building surface high
pressure. With little change in airmass high temperatures will run
quite similar today`s readings, topping out from the mid 20s to
lower 30s in most spots under light west to northwesterly winds.

Then clear to partly cloudy by Monday night with aforementioned high
pressure overnight. Winds will trend light along with decent
radiative effects so low temperatures should be a tad colder -
mainly from 5 to 15 above.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 301 PM EDT Sunday...Temperatures on Tuesday will similar to
those on Monday as afternoon highs struggle to climb into the
upper 20s to mid 30s. Throughout the day, the western periphery
of the upper level trough will track through the region which
may be just enough to produce an isolated snow shower or two
over Northern New York but given the lack of moisture to work
with, shower activity should remain rather sparse. A brief
pattern change will take place on Wednesday with low amplitude
ridging aloft allowing for flow aloft to shift to the
west/southwest. This will result in warm air advection in the
low to mid-levels and allow surface temperatures to rebound
nicely into he 40s on Wednesday. Winds could be a little gusty
on Wednesday from the south/southwest but with warmer air moving
in aloft, the depth of the mixing layer will shrink and limit
wind gusts during the afternoon hours. Wednesday should remain
fairly with the low amplitude ridging overhead but that all
changes Wednesday night as a frontal boundary takes aim at the
North Country.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 301 PM EDT Sunday...Rain showers will move into North New York
early Thursday morning and overspread the North Country by Thursday
afternoon. Models continue to show a sharp trough dropping south
which will be able to interact with some weak low-level instability.
Colder air will quickly begin to filter in aloft behind the cold
front Thursday afternoon but given the timing of the cold air
advection and frontal passage, temperatures should once again rise
into the 40s during the early afternoon hours. This should allow for
some of the rain showers to mix with or change over to snow during
the Thursday evening/Thursday night timeframe. Little accumulation
is expected as drier air accompanies the colder air filtering in.
Temperatures Friday night will drop down into the teens but are
trending warmer than yesterday as it looks like continued shower
activity should keep skies mostly cloudy through the overnight
period. This shower activity will likely continue through the day on
Friday as a strong shortwave dives south on the western periphery of
the trough with areal coverage tapering off throughout the day.

Saturday will be by far the coldest day in the extended with highs
likely rising to or just below freezing which is well below seasonal
normals. The aforementioned trough will be very progressive as the
upper level pattern over the central US becomes highly amplifies.
This will force the trough east of us on Sunday with temperatures
rebounding into the 40s with some places approaching Friday by
Sunday. Surface high pressure will build across the region Saturday
night into Sunday which should shut off any lingering precipitation
and lead to clearing skies for the second half of the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Through 18Z Monday...Mainly VFR through 00Z under west to
northwesterly flow of 8-12 kts and occnl gusts into the 15-20 kt
range. A passing flurry possible in higher trrn with cloud
bases generally in the 035-050 AGL range. From 00-09Z another
weak trough passage may spark a period of light snow shower
activity, most focused across higher terrain. Occnl MVFR/brief
IFR conditions possible with this activity. Given uncertainty of
coverage will only mention steadier activity at KSLK leaving
VCSH to cover other terminals. Winds backing to light
south/southwesterly at 5 kts or less during this period. After
12Z mainly VFR expected under renewed light west/northwesterly
flow from 5-10 kts behind the trough passage.

Outlook...

Monday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
Wednesday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance
SHRA, Chance SHSN.
Thursday: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. Chance SHRA,
Chance SHSN.
Thursday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance
SHSN, Chance SHRA.
Friday: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. Chance SHSN, Chance
SHRA.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMG
NEAR TERM...JMG
SHORT TERM...Clay
LONG TERM...Clay
AVIATION...JMG


 
 
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