947
FXUS61 KBTV 111747
AFDBTV
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
1247 PM EST Wed Feb 11 2026
.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
As of 206 AM EST Wednesday...
The Winter Weather Advisory has been cancelled across the North
Country.
&&
.KEY MESSAGES...
As of 206 AM EST Wednesday...
1. Light snow showers will redevelop this afternoon and
evening, especially across the mountains.
2. Dry and seasonable conditions to end the work week.
3. Temperatures will warm to above normal next week for the
first time this month.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
As of 206 AM EST Wednesday...
KEY MESSAGE 1: Best dynamics associated with the Alberta Clipper have
exited east of VT early this morning, with mid-level dry slot
currently in place. In terms of observed snowfall, did see 2-4" of
snowfall in most locations yesterday afternoon/evening (see Public
Information Statement for latest reports), but with synoptic system
exiting, have cancelled the Winter Weather Advisories as of 2am. Not
expecting much additional precipitation this morning, with just a 20-
30% chance of some very fine snowflakes or patchy freezing
drizzle (with absence of cloud ice) through noon or so. We
still have the closed 850-500mb low across central Quebec. This
feature is expected to deepen over the next 24 hours, with an
increase in moist cyclonic flow into nrn NY and VT this
afternoon and evening. This should result in some reinvigoration
of snow shower activity across nrn areas and especially with
orographic ascent in the the nrn Adirondacks and nrn Greens.
Have indicated an additional dusting to 2" inches of snow
accumulation this afternoon and tonight across roughly the
northern half of the CWA. Should see some locally higher totals
of 2-4" across the higher summits from Camel`s Hump nwd to Jay
Peak, and possibly along the nrn slopes of the Adirondacks.
Looking at generally dry snow with SLRs in the 18:1 to 20:1
range. With the additional light snow accumulations, some
renewed minor road impacts are possible this afternoon and
evening. However, with snowfall rates expected to be lower, road
impacts should not be as significant as what occurred during
Tuesday evening.
KEY MESSAGE 2: High pressure building ewd from the Great Lakes will
allow orographic snow shower activity to wind down early Thursday
morning. Daytime temperatures on Thursday will reach the mid to
upper 20s in valley locations with skies trending partly to mostly
sunny by afternoon. After a chilly start Friday morning (lows
generally in the single digits), temperatures will generally rebound
into the 25-30F range for afternoon highs. Fair and quiet weather
conditions are anticipated with a surface ridge cresting over our
region.
KEY MESSAGE 3: After a long stretch of below freezing temperatures (see
Climate section for more details...), a pattern shift is in store
for next week. Subtle warm air advection will bring highs to near
freezing this weekend, then waa will increase in intensity Monday
onward. The model trend has been to generally delay the arrival of
the warmest air, and the temperature forecast for Sunday has
consequently been lowered slightly. However, we are still
forecasting a high of 32 for Burlington on Sunday. Temperatures
will rise into the upper 30s Monday onward, and reach around 40 by
midweek. Normal highs this time of year are right around freezing,
so this swing in temperatures will take us above seasonable normals
for the first time this month.
We`ve also been closely watching a coastal low that will develop
late Sunday into Monday off the Mid Atlantic Coast. Whereas before
it was looking like this system could bring us some impactful
precipitation, models have trended away from this solution and now
overwhelmingly keep the system shunted to our south. We still can`t
rule out any impacts all together, but impacts to our forecast area
are looking less and less likely. The PoP forecast for early next
week has thus been lowered to reflect this trend, though some slight
chance PoPs do remain for Sunday night through Monday night.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Through 18Z Thursday...Snow showers will linger through the evening
for most terminals. SLK, EFK and MPV will likely see relatively
continuous IFR visibility while BTV will likely see on and off IFR
visibility. PBG, RUT and MSS should see mostly MVFR and VFR
visibility with only brief possible periods of IFR possible.
Ceilings will mostly be MVFR for through the rest of the night. The
snow should exit late in the night and early tomorrow morning.
Conditions should gradually improve during the day but lingering
MVFR ceilings are possible at SLK and EFK. Lingering flurries are
also possible at those locations but they should be light enough to
not consistently lower visibilities. Northwest flow will develop and
continue through the night. Most areas should see winds below 10 KTs
but MSS, BTV and PBG could see gusts between 10-20 KTs.
Outlook...
Thursday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Friday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Friday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Slight chance
SN.
Saturday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. NO SIG WX.
Saturday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. NO SIG WX.
Sunday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Sunday Night: VFR. Slight chance SN.
Washingtons Birthday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible.
Slight chance RA, Slight chance SN.
&&
.CLIMATE...
As of 206 AM EST Wednesday...
In Burlington, the last day with a temperature breaking 32 degrees
was January 22nd. The next time we are forecasting temperatures
rising above 32 in Burlington is next Monday, February 16th. If
that forecast holds, that would be 24 days in a row below freezing.
Sub-freezing temperature streaks this long are fairly unusual in the
Burlington area, last happening January-February 2015.
&&
.EQUIPMENT...
NOAA Weather Radio station WXM-44, transmitting from Mt.
Ascutney, Vermont, on frequency 162.475 MHz is non- operational
at this time. NWS technicians have diagnosed the problem, but
repairs will likely not be able to occur for quite some time due
to circumstances beyond our control. Therefore, the time of
return to service is currently unknown. The following NOAA
Weather Radio transmitters may be able to provide service during
this outage: WWG 50 from Burke Mtn, VT at 162.425 MHz and WNG
546 from Hanover, NH at 162.525 MHz.
The Colchester Reef meteorological station is out of service.
This site is not serviced by the NWS and there isn`t an
estimated return to service at present. Please contact us if
you observe winds significantly deviating from the recreational
forecast.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.
&&
$$
WHAT HAS CHANGED...Banacos
DISCUSSION...Duell/Banacos
AVIATION...Myskowski
CLIMATE...Duell
EQUIPMENT...NWS BTV
|
