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  Tuesday April 13, 2021

 

NWS Area Forecast Discussion


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FXUS61 KBTV 120750
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
350 AM EDT Mon Apr 12 2021

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak occluded front will remain stalled across central New York
through this morning, keeping showers just to our south and west
today. Otherwise, dry conditions are expected through the middle of
next week with high pressure building back across the region.
Temperatures will be a little cooler than what we have observed as
of late but we will still see values 5 to 15 degrees above normal.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 350 AM EDT Monday...The persistent area of rain that has
remained just to our south and west overnight will wane through the
day today as the backdoor frontal boundary shifts southwest and
drier air wins out. The best chances for rain in our forecast area
will be along and south of a Ogdensburg to Newcomb to Rutland to
Windsor line, mainly through the early morning hours. Otherwise,
expect decreasing cloud cover from northeast to southwest, with
partly sunny conditions to prevail just about everywhere by sunset.
Temperatures will be cooler today than yesterday, ranging from the
mid 50s in far eastern VT to the lower 60s in the St Lawrence
Valley. The drier weather will linger tonight and Tuesday as ridging
returns to the North Country. After dropping into the the mid 30s to
lower 40s tonight, temperatures will warm back into the 60s areawide
with a mix of sun and clouds.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 350 AM EDT Monday...When in drought, leave it out. Guidance has
trended drier and warmer for Wednesday as the bowling ball of a low
pressure system to our west loses some oomph. That system will run
into a narrow upper level ridge building northward along the east
coast Tuesday night in the wake of the wave that passed to our south
early in the week. So yet again, looking at scattered at best rain
showers for this time frame. Clouds, unlikely to produce significant
precipitation with the upper level height rises and dry low-level
air, will move through the area from west to east, especially early
Wednesday. This may help keep temperatures from getting too chilly
even with the lack of wind. During the daytime, went towards warmer
guidance with highs in the 60 to 65 range in most areas, with ample
sunshine, especially towards the north and east farther from the
occluded low. Overall, it should be another pleasant day for outdoor
activities with gentle breezes associated with surface heating as
winds aloft remain light.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 307 PM EDT Sunday...Wednesday is still looking like a nice day
with relatively dry weather expected. Cannot rule out the
possibility of a few showers later in the day, but only going with a
slight chance at this point for parts of northern New York. Over the
past week we have been waiting for upper lows forecast to move
across our area and they essentially have not. The next one is
forecast to approach the area on Thursday and Friday. With the
blocking pattern of late, the longer range data struggling to handle
all of the upper lows, and not everyone on board with the track of
this latest feature it may be best to increase precipitation chances
a little, but not significantly ramp up numbers just yet. So will
mention precipitation chances in the slight chance and chance
categories for now during the Thursday through Friday time period.
Looks like we return to a dry pattern for the weekend. High
temperatures during the extended period will generally be about 4 to
8 degrees above normal for this time of year.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Through 06Z Tuesday...VFR conditions will persist through the 24
hour TAF period as a frontal boundary remains draped from the
southern St Lawrence Valley into southern VT. Ceilings will
mainly remain AOA 5000 ft, with local ceilings around 3500 ft at
KRUT. Light rain or VCSH possible at KRUT overnight/early Monday
morning, but no impacts are expected. East to southeast winds 5
to 10 kt through much of the period, with gustiness at KMSS and
KRUT.

Outlook...

Tuesday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
Wednesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Thursday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Slight chance
SHRA.
Thursday Night: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Slight
chance SHRA.
Friday: Mainly MVFR, with local VFR possible. Chance SHRA.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Hastings
NEAR TERM...Hastings
SHORT TERM...Kutikoff
LONG TERM...Evenson
AVIATION...Hastings


 
 
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