000
FXUS61 KBTV 161932
AFDBTV
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
332 PM EDT Tue Apr 16 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
Pleasant spring weather is on tap for tomorrow with highs in the 50s
and 60s under mostly sunny skies. Some showers return on Thursday
and continue into the weekend though there will be some large breaks
in between. Dry weather will start next week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 331 PM EDT Tuesday...Dry weather should generally prevail for
the rest of the day though an isolated sprinkle cannot be ruled out
in the Northeast Kingdom. With a loss of diurnal heating this
evening, any sprinkle and the cloud cover will quickly fall apart
and clear skies will persist for the rest of the night. Winds will
go calm tonight an with clear skies and a dry airmass, temperatures
will drop quickly. Lows should generally be between 25-35 degrees.
With a drier airmass than the past few night and winds staying up
for the early part of the night, fog is not expected to form.
Temperatures will quickly rebound tomorrow, with highs reaching the
50s and 60s. With efficient mixing and a very dry airmass above the
boundary layer, continued to blend in some guidance to lower the dew
points. Minimum afternoon relatively humidities should be between 30
and 40 percent but the the mixing will likley cause the humidities
to fall into the 20s in the some of the drier valleys. Clouds will
begin to move in during the afternoon ahead of an occluded front
that will pass through overnight into Thursday. It will be weakening
as it enters the region so most of the precipitation should fall
over northern New York.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
As of 331 PM EDT Tuesday...A decaying occluded frontal boundary will
move through the North Country Thursday bringing widespread, but
light, rainfall. Totals will be less than 0.25" in general with
highest amounts in the St Lawrence Valley tapering to sprinkles in
eastern Vermont. Breaks in cloud cover will help Vermont stay warmer
with highs in the mid/upper 50s while rain cooled air over northern
New York will favor highs in the 40s to mid 50s. Southerly flow and
post frontal cloud breaks may along the St Lawrence Valley to warm
into the upper 50s. Continued cloud cover will limit overnight
cooling with lows generally in the upper 30s to mid/upper 40s.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 331 PM EDT Tuesday...Models favor a jet maximum to pick up a
stalling low circulation over central Canada, ejecting it eastward
causing the long wave pattern to become more progressive. This upper
level support would be favorable for cyclogenesis resulting in a
moderate strength frontal system to push eastward through the
Northeast late Friday and early Saturday. Preceding southerly flow
will help temperatures warm into the upper 50s to low 60s with gusts
likely up to 20 mph. While support is decently robust, zonal flow
across the central/southern states will largely cut off any chance
of a deep moisture tap; the continental nature of the low also
precludes deep moisture. So, while chances of rain are likely,
amounts are again expected to be minor. As such, main system impacts
will be for wind gusts 20-35 mph Saturday and cooling temperatures
Saturday and Saturday night.
High pressure is favored early next week with cooler air likely
locked in Canada again allowing for temperatures to warm back into
the upper 50s/60s.
&&
.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Through 18Z Wednesday...VFR conditions are expected to persist
through the entire TAF period. Some lower clouds will move into
northeast Vermont this afternoon which will affect EFK, but ceilings
should stay a low VFR. These clouds will dissipate quickly during
the evening and then the only clouds in the rest of the period will
be high clouds. With a drier airmass, fog is not expected at any of
the terminals tonight. Winds have been increasing during the day and
they are generally gusting between 10-20 kts across the region. They
will continue for much of the afternoon before they lighten up
quickly this evening. Winds will pick up again during the day
tomorrow though not a strong as today.
Outlook...
Wednesday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
Thursday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA.
Thursday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance
SHRA.
Friday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA.
Friday Night: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. Chance SHRA.
Saturday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA.
Saturday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight
chance SHRA.
Sunday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. NO SIG WX.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Myskowski
NEAR TERM...Myskowski
SHORT TERM...Boyd
LONG TERM...Boyd
AVIATION...Myskowski
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