539
FXUS61 KBTV 081129
AFDBTV
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
729 AM EDT Mon Sep 8 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
Drier and cooler weather will prevail for much of the week as high
pressure becomes well established across the region. Most nights
will feature patchy valley fog and even the chance of some frost in
the cold hollows of the Adirondacks and Northeast Kingdom. The next
widespread rain chance does not look to occur until after next
weekend. Enjoy the beautiful stretch of early fall weather!
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 256 AM EDT Monday...Cool surface high pressure will become
centered over the region for today and tomorrow, leading to mostly
sunny skies, light winds and low humidity. Temperatures will be
slightly below climatological normals. Ideal radiational cooling
tonight will cause temperatures to drop far. While most areas should
see them bottom out in the forties and upper thirties, parts of the
Adirondacks and Northeast Kingdom will see them fall into the low to
mid thirties. Therefore, patchy frost is expected in those
locations. There will be a slight warming of the airmass tomorrow
and there may be some weak boundary layer winds tomorrow night.
Therefore, temperatures are not expected to drop as far as tonight,
but patchy frost still cannot be ruled out in the coldest hollows of
the Adirondacks and Northeast Kingdom. The average first 32 degree
temperature in Saranac Lake is September 8th so this cold is right
on track. Currently, a low of 30 is in the forecast for SLK tonight.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY/...
As of 256 AM EDT Monday...Surface high pressure will remain
established over the region on Wednesday, but the center will move
off slightly to the east, so some weak warm air advection will
occur. Temperatures should therefore warm to around climatological
normals, with highs in the mid 70s for most areas.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 256 AM EDT Monday...The persistent ridging axis over the
Northeast is heavily favored to retreat as low pressure tracks
eastward through northern Canada. Height falls along the offshore
baroclinic zone will help erode ridging allowing for a cold front to
drop southward through Vermont on Thursday. However, precipitation
chances are pretty much nil given the low`s position and dessicated
antecedent conditions. As such, winds will likely be breezy on
Thursday (gusts 15-20 mph for most spots and around 25 mph along the
Champlain Valley) as flow turns northerly, and have begun to trend
to guidance that favors higher wind speeds. This front will sharply
cool temperatures Thursday night, lows in the 30s for the
Adirondacks and northeastern Vermont and 40s elsewhere, and for
Friday with highs generally in the 60s to around 70 degrees. Chances
for frost return to the Adirondacks and northeastern Vermont.
Temperatures will likely rebound Saturday and Sunday back into the
upper 60s to mid 70s as southerly flow returns. Models do start
increasing precipitation chances late Saturday into Sunday as a weak
system drops out of Canada, but are split on actual track of the
system. For now, kept 15-30% chances for showers.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Through 12Z Tuesday...The primary forecast challenge will be
centered around fog chances through 13Z, and again after 03Z
tonight. SLK has been ranging between VLIFR and VFR for the last
8 hours, but has gone VFR by 1130Z. There could be one last
waver on the on/near terminal fog bank, but the sun is up and
should limit its duration at this point. MPV has finally settled
at VLIFR and will likely remain that way through 13Z, then lift
and scatter to VFR. SFC winds will start westerly in generally
today, then switch northwesterly (northerly at BTV). After 23Z,
calm winds return with much lighter flow aloft overnight. This
set up is a good one for radiational fog, so opted to put in
1/2SM FG at SLK/MPV/EFK after 06Z. BTV and MSS have a marginal
chance of seeing some mist/fog, but will be conditional on
whether drainage flows can advect the fog over the terminals.
Outlook...
Tuesday: VFR. Patchy BR.
Tuesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Thursday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Thursday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Friday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...Frost Advisory from 2 AM to 8 AM EDT Tuesday for VTZ004.
NY...Frost Advisory from 2 AM to 8 AM EDT Tuesday for NYZ029>031-
034.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Myskowski
NEAR TERM...Myskowski
SHORT TERM...Myskowski
LONG TERM...Boyd
AVIATION...Boyd
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