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  Monday June 26, 2017

 

NWS Area Forecast Discussion


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FXUS61 KBTV 240757
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
357 AM EDT Sat Jun 24 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Showers will be moving east out of the area as the morning
wears on today. Sunshine is also expected to develop as well.
Highs will be a few degrees above normal today then return to
seasonal normals on Sunday as clouds increasing along with the
chance for showers. Unsettled weather is expected for much of
next week with chances for showers just about everyday.
Temperatures will be slightly below normal through midweek then
slightly above normal for the end of the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 110 AM EDT Saturday...Line of showers and occasional
thunder from Highgate to Plattsburgh to Newcomb, moving east.
Brief period of moderate rainfall with the line, but totals have
been a quarter inch or less of additional rain. Updated pops
this cycle with latest hi-res model data. Blended HRRR and RAP
model reflectivity based pops which capture line of showers and
occasional thunder and move it east during the predawn hours.
Despite atmosphere still quite juiced and brief heavy rainfall
rates, forward propagation of the line keeps heavier rain from
lingering over one location, and flash flood threat remains low.
Drier air on the doorstep of western St. Lawrence County, with
upstream obs showing a westward shift of wind and dewpoints
starting to drop into the upper 60s.

Previous Discussion for Saturday and Saturday Night...
By Saturday into Saturday night a brief period of drying can be
expected for most areas as we lie between shortwave troughs on
the southern edge of a dominant polar trough across central
Canada. Additional weak low level troughing settling south
toward the intl border during the afternoon may spark scattered
showers/isolated storms across the far north, but most of the
day should be rain-free for most areas. Highs similar to today
(upper 70s to lower 80s), though humidity will be more tolerable
as dewpoints lower back into the 50s over time. Lows Saturday
night in the 50s to locally near 60 in milder valley locales.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 357 AM EDT Saturday...Shortwave trough will be moving
into the area on Sunday...especially during the afternoon hours.
Thus looking at increasing clouds and increasing chances for
showers. Highs will generally be in the 70s. The shortwave
trough exits the area Sunday night and most of the precipitation
will exit the area as well. Another shortwave trough moves in
on Monday and as a result...plenty of clouds will persist and
chances for showers will increase once again during the
afternoon hours. Highs will be in the upper 60s to mid 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 357 AM EDT Saturday...Overall still looking at an
unsettled period. An upper level trough of low pressure will
exist over eastern Canada and the Northeast through midweek. A
series of shortwave troughs will move through the trough and
enhance the potential for showers right through midweek. Below
normal temperatures are expected during this period. The pattern
will change for Thursday and Friday as flow aloft becomes more
westerly. Temperatures will warm up with highs in the mid 70s to
lower 80s. With the upper flow remaining more westerly over our
area...the chances for showers and storms will exist.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Through 06Z Sunday...VFR/MVFR conditions will exist through 12z
as plenty of moisture remains over the area. Scattered to
numerous showers will move east across northeast New York and
Vermont during this time period as well. Due to the showers and
low level moisture...there will be periods of IFR conditions
through 12z...but these conditions will not be widespread and
should not last too long. Still enough wind at the surface to
limit conditions falling any lower than IFR. After 12z improving
conditions will take place as drier air moves in from the west.
The trend toward VFR conditions will take place between 12z and
16z with all areas becoming VFR from 16z through the remainder
of the period. Winds will generally be 10 knots or less through
the period. Watch for a wind shift south and southwest to west
and northwest between 13z and 16z.

Outlook...

Sunday: VFR. Likely SHRA...Slight Chance TSRA.
Sunday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA.
Monday: VFR. Chance SHRA...Slight Chance TSRA.
Monday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA.
Tuesday: VFR. Chance SHRA...Slight Chance TSRA.
Tuesday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA.
Wednesday: VFR. Chance SHRA.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Evenson
NEAR TERM...JMG/Lahiff/Hanson
SHORT TERM...Evenson
LONG TERM...Evenson
AVIATION...Evenson



 
 
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