229
FXUS61 KBTV 232342
AFDBTV
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
742 PM EDT Thu Oct 23 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
A cooler and showery pattern will persist into the weekend, though
additional precipitation totals will be mostly light. Lake effect
showers will enhance the precipitation at times across parts of
northern New York. High elevation snow showers will occur,
supporting light snow accumulations on mountain summits. Conditions
will trend drier heading into early next week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
As of 152 PM EDT Thursday...A large broad upper low, generally
centered over northern Quebec, continues to slowly push eastward,
bringing cool and showery conditions to the region. An associated
shortwave is beginning to enter northern New York with some
scattered showers across the Adirondacks and St. Lawrence Valley.
These showers will continue to push east into northern Vermont this
afternoon and evening, with brief clearing overnight. Precipitation
totals will be light with only a few hundreths possible. The lake
effect showers and clouds have largely become detached from Lake
Ontario as the system moves east, and wind directions no longer
favor the lake fetch. The showers have drifted downstream into the
Champlain Valley and northern Vermont with fairly light showers and
drizzle. Cooling air aloft at the 925mb level has allowed mountain
summits and ridges to cool below freezing, and this trend should
continue through the weekend with northwesterly flow ushering cooler
and drier air. Consequently, snow levels will lower below the higher
summits and mid slopes with a light dusting of snow possible under
any passing scattered showers above 2500ft agl. In the overnight,
snow levels may fall towards 2000ft agl, allowing a few flakes to
pass through some Adirondack towns, but accumulations will be
negligible. Flurries will be best Friday for both the Adirondacks
and Greens as another shortwave will enhance precipitation chances
(45-55%), though prevailing coverage will be confined to the upslope
areas, with more isolated to scattered showers elsewhere. Some
precipitation enhancement in southern St. Lawrence County will be
possible with some waffling of another lake effect band Friday
morning and early afternoon, though the best precipitation amounts
look to stay south of the area.
Daytime highs to end the work week will be in the upper 40s to
low 50s, with overnight lows in the upper 20s to mid 30s.
Overnight lows will be dependent on the lake band cloud cover,
especially in northern New York, with previous nights slightly
warmer than modeled due to increased cloud cover.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
As of 152 PM EDT Thursday...Building high pressure will slowly nose
closer to the region Saturday with flow becoming
north/northwesterly, drawing in cooler, and drier air aloft.
Atmospheric moisture will become more shallow with the drying of the
mid to upper levels resulting in any precipitation chances falling
as drizzle or mist. Precipitation chances will be low Saturday, and
confined to the northern upslopes and international border. Although
the area will dry out the mid levels, cyclonic flow ahead of the
building high will keep clouds across most of the area. Some
downsloping in southern Vermont may be able to clear out some clouds
for a few breaks, but otherwise remaining cloudy. Temperatures will
continue in the upper 40s to low 50s during the day, and upper 20s
to mid 30s overnight. With moisture remaining low, and temperatures
below freezing in the mountains, most precipitation will likely turn
into more riming than actual snow.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 133 PM EDT Thursday...Cutoff upper level low pressure is
expected to linger into early next week as high pressure in
southwestern Quebec steers northeasterly winds into the forecast
area. This means below average temperatures for most of next week as
highs reach only into the 40s and lower 50s with lows falling into
the 20s to mid 30s, moderating slightly mid and late week. Plentiful
clouds and isolated to scattered terrain induced showers are also
anticipated Sunday and possibly Monday with the cutoff low more
directly overhead.
Most likely clearing of skies would be Monday night as most
deterministic models show high pressure nosing in from Canada. From
there, model agreement begins to fall apart towards midweek. Some
guidance shows low pressure bringing precipitation back into our
area late week, though models depict very different tracks, speeds,
and orientations for this system, so confidence remains on the lower
side. Highest chance for measurable precipitation looks to be
Thursday night or later.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Through 00Z Saturday...A mix of VFR and MVFR conditions expected
to prevail through the TAF period. Showers continue to wind down
this evening, and expect most areas to remain dry overnight with
just isolated activity expected. Ceilings to mainly remain VFR
through at least 10z Fri, with KSLK the lone exception with
ceilings to remain AOB 3000 ft through the entire TAF period.
Clouds may dissipate a bit overnight, especially at KRUT/KMPV,
which may allow patchy dense fog to develop at these two sites.
Confidence not high enough to include any mention beyond VCFG at
this time. Should fog develop, most likely timeframe would be
08z-12z, with IFR/LIFR possible. Otherwise, expect more
scattered showers to develop from 10z Fri onward with ceilings
lowering to MVFR at KBTV and KPBG in addition to KSLK. Winds
will remain light and variable through the period.
Outlook...
Friday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA.
Saturday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight chance
SHRA.
Saturday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance
SHRA.
Sunday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance SHRA.
Sunday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Monday: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. NO SIG WX.
Monday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. NO SIG WX.
&&
.EQUIPMENT...
The TYX radar is down until further notice after a hardware
failure occurred. Replacement parts have been ordered and will
be installed. There is no ETA on its return to service.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Danzig
NEAR TERM...Danzig
SHORT TERM...Danzig
LONG TERM...Storm
AVIATION...Hastings
EQUIPMENT...BTV
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