FXUS61 KBTV 171900
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Burlington VT
300 PM EDT Sun Mar 17 2019
Scattered flurries and a few snow showers will persist through
tonight as another weak front crosses the area. High pressure
will then bring mainly dry and continued seasonably cool weather
to the region Monday and Tuesday. Temperatures moderate briefly
by Wednesday into Thursday with renewed chances of light rain
and snow showers before temperatures cool once again by Friday
into next Saturday.
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
As of 300 PM EDT Sunday...Mainly quiet weather continues over
the next 42 hours as surface high pressure is bridged aloft by
broad upper troughing. Another weak shortwave trough passage
will likely bring a window of scattered flurries/snow showers to
the area later this evening into tonight during which very
minor accumulations of a dusting to perhaps an inch will be
possible across the northern half of the forecast area. Always
hard to tease out the details in such small features, but model
consensus appears to favor steadiest activity across the higher
terrain of the Dacks and northern Greens and this is what I`ll
run with for now. Low temperatures similar to last night ranging
generally from 8 to 18 above with some variability.
Any lingering morning flurries to then give way to partly sunny
skies through the day on Monday under building surface high
pressure. With little change in airmass high temperatures will run
quite similar today`s readings, topping out from the mid 20s to
lower 30s in most spots under light west to northwesterly winds.
Then clear to partly cloudy by Monday night with aforementioned high
pressure overnight. Winds will trend light along with decent
radiative effects so low temperatures should be a tad colder -
mainly from 5 to 15 above.
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY/...
As of 321 AM EDT Sunday...Area remains in northwest flow aloft Monday
night and Tuesday. This will result in below normal
temperatures...especially with low temperatures Monday night with
lows in the single digits and teens. Highs on Tuesday will generally
be in the upper 20s to mid 30s. Not expecting any precipitation
during this period with drier air and surface high pressure building
into the region.
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 321 AM EDT Sunday...Dry weather continues Tuesday night into
the first half of Wednesday. Warm air advection develops as flow
aloft backs to the west and southwest. While low temperatures
Tuesday night will be at or below normal we should see at or above
normal temperatures on Wednesday with highs in the upper 30s to mid
40s. The backed flow to the southwest is an indication an upper
level trough is approaching and chances for precipitation will
increase as the trough moves across the area Wednesday night into
Thursday. Have gone with a chance of rain or snow showers Wednesday
night and a chance of rain showers for Thursday with snow showers
confined to the higher elevations. Starting Thursday night and
continuing into the weekend we will have northwest flow aloft become
established over the area and thus expecting a return to below
normal temperatures and drier weather with just a chance for some
lingering snow showers on Friday.
.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Through 18Z Monday...Mainly VFR through 00Z under west to
northwesterly flow of 8-12 kts and occnl gusts into the 15-20 kt
range. A passing flurry possible in higher trrn with cloud
bases generally in the 035-050 AGL range. From 00-09Z another
weak trough passage may spark a period of light snow shower
activity, most focused across higher terrain. Occnl MVFR/brief
IFR conditions possible with this activity. Given uncertainty of
coverage will only mention steadier activity at KSLK leaving
VCSH to cover other terminals. Winds backing to light
south/southwesterly at 5 kts or less during this period. After
12Z mainly VFR expected under renewed light west/northwesterly
flow from 5-10 kts behind the trough passage.
Monday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
Wednesday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance
SHRA, Chance SHSN.
Thursday: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. Chance SHRA,
Thursday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance
SHSN, Chance SHRA.
Friday: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. Chance SHSN, Chance