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  Tuesday May 23, 2017

 

NWS Area Forecast Discussion


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000
FXUS61 KBTV 201940
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
340 PM EDT Sat May 20 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Strong high pressure across Quebec and northern New England will
result in a chilly and mostly clear night, and continued fair
weather for much of the day Sunday. With clear skies and
diminishing wind, expecting some areas of frost after midnight
across the Northern Adriondack region, as well as portions of
north-central into northeastern Vermont. Will see a gradual
increase in clouds later Sunday as a warm front approaches from
the southwest. This warm front will bring overcast skies and
periods of rain during Sunday night into Monday morning.
Rainfall amounts between one- third and one-half inch are
generally expected across the North Country. Tuesday will see
a brief return of surface high pressure.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 314 PM EDT Saturday...Relatively quiet conditions over the
next 24 hrs, with areas of frost tonight in the nrn Adirondacks
and n-central/nern VT the only concern for agricultural
interests. Strong (1035mb) surface anticyclone centered across
western Quebec resulting in clear skies for the North Country,
though winds have been a bit brisk from the N-NE at 10-20 mph.
PBL will quickly stabilize this evening resulting in diminishing
winds, generally NE at 5 mph or less in most locations. With sfc
dewpoints in the mid-upr 20s this aftn, should set up good
radiative cooling conditions overnight. Looking for lows early
Sunday morning ranging from the upr 30s to lower 40s in the St.
Lawrence and Champlain Valleys, and generally low-mid 30s east
of the Green Mtns and in the northern Adirondacks. There will be
some normally colder spots - such as Saranac Lake (KSLK) and
Island Pond - that will likely see lows dip into the 20s
tonight. Added srn St. Lawrence County and western Clinton
County to the frost advisory, while keeping n-central/nern VT as
is in the frost advisory...which runs thru 11Z Sunday. PoPs NIL
tonight.

Will see temperatures rise quickly on Sunday, as winds turn into
the south around 10 mph. Afternoon highs will be warmer than the
past couple of days, generally ranging from the upr 60s to lower
70s. Anticipate filtered sunshine as upr- mid level clouds
spread ewd from the Great Lakes with increasing mid- level WAA
regime moving in. That said, there is good amplification of a
shortwave ridge across NY/New England 700-500mb layer during
the daylight hrs...and a lack of low-level convergence. Thus,
kept conditions dry Sunday, with just a slight chance of a rain
shower moving into St. Lawrence/Franklin Co toward 23Z (7pm)
Sunday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
As of 314 PM EDT Saturday...Will see an unsettled period of
weather, with well-defined region of 850-700mb WAA and
isentropic lift moving enewd across our region during Sunday
night thru Monday morning. Rain showers should overspread the
region from W-E during Sunday night, per consensus of mesoscale
and global model suite. We have increased PoPs to near 80
percent for the pre- dawn hrs Monday based on latest trends in
NWP guidance. Should see shower activity gradually move out
from west to east Monday morning with decreased forcing for
ascent and drier deep-layer RH values into Monday aftn. All in
all, looking for 0.33-0.50" precipitation, likely highest in the
nrn Adirondacks with S-SW flow regime setting up. Lows on
Sunday night generally 45-52F, with Monday`s highs in the low-
mid 60s from the Champlain Valley wwd, and in the low-mid 50s
with lingering low overcast expected for ern VT. Winds will
increase from the south during Sunday night, generally 10-15
mph. We may briefly see Lake Wind Advisory criteria on Lake
Champlain from 07Z-14Z Monday, with south winds across the broad
lake of 15-25 kt.

Generally quiet Monday night with variably cloudy conditions.
Additionally, SW flow regime will keep temps on the mild side,
generally in the mid-upr 40s.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 442 AM EDT Saturday...Forecast area is under the
influence of a slow moving upper trough for much of the time
period, with model differences becoming apparent toward the end
of the week.

Cold front passes through the forecast area in 00-12z Tuesday
timeframe with winds shifting from south to west. Lingering
chances for showers through 06z Tuesday with frontal passage and
area in right rear quadrant of 300 mb jet. Moisture becomes
limited toward morning and any lingering showers will taper off.
Little change in temperatures and low level winds turn
southerly again late Tuesday with positively tilted upper trough
to the west and region in broad southwesterly flow at 500 mb.
Surface high pressure Tuesday and Tuesday night will keep the
region rain free.

Upper trough slowly moves east Wednesday and Thursday, with GFS
developing a closed low over Tennessee Wednesday night, while
ECMWF retains its low over the western Great Lakes with an open
trough into the Gulf states. Result is the ECMWF lifts a
shortwave trough northeast ahead of the mean trough and spins up
a surface low that tracks north along the Appalachians, while
the GFS holds back with the slower moving closed low over the
south. Thursday into Friday the GFS lifts its closed low
northeast, and at the same time the ECMWF shifts its Great Lakes
low east. As far as sensible weather is concerned both models
then break out precip over the forecast area Wednesday into
Thursday for totally different reasons, and we end up with high
chance/low likely category POPs Weds-Thurs, starting to taper
off on Friday. Right now CAPE looks limited, and kept precip
type limited to showers with no thunder.

Little airmass change through the extended period, with highs
in the upper 60s/low 70s Tuesday & Wednesday, cooling to the 60s
in rain later in the week. to around 70, and lows in the 40s
and 50s.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Through 18Z Sunday...VFR. No vsby restrictions expected. Skies
generally clear through tonight, becoming SCT-BKN150-250 during
Sunday AM as mid-upper level clouds filter in from the west.
Winds generally N 10-15kts at RUT/BTV/MPV, and locally NE around
10-12kts at MSS/PBG/SLK thru 23z. Winds becoming light and
variable areawide tonight with stable boundary layer conditions,
then winds developing S-SE 5-10kts during the morning hrs on
Sunday.

Outlook...

Sunday Night: VFR/MVFR. Likely SHRA.
Monday: MVFR. Breezy. Likely SHRA.
Monday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA.
Tuesday: VFR. Slight Chance SHRA.
Tuesday Night: VFR. Slight Chance SHRA.
Wednesday: VFR. Chance SHRA.
Wednesday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA.
Thursday: VFR/MVFR. Likely SHRA.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...Frost Advisory from midnight tonight to 7 AM EDT Sunday for
     VTZ003-004-006>008-010.
NY...Frost Advisory from midnight tonight to 7 AM EDT Sunday for
     NYZ029>031-034.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Banacos
NEAR TERM...Banacos
SHORT TERM...Banacos
LONG TERM...Hanson
AVIATION...Banacos



 
 
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