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  Thursday August 17, 2017

 

NWS Area Forecast Discussion


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727
FXUS61 KBTV 152022
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
422 PM EDT Tue Aug 15 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Scattered showers can be expected through the rest of the
afternoon across the North Country. Some of the showers will
have embedded thunderstorms and they will have the potential to
produce gusty winds and heavy rainfall. The area that will have
the best potential to see these stronger storms will be
northeast New York and the northern and central sections of
Vermont. An upper level trough of low pressure track eastward
across Quebec and swing a cold front through the North Country
overnight. This leads to much cooler and drier weather expected
for Wednesday and Thursday. The next chance for more widespread
showers will come late Thursday night and especially on Friday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
As of 345 PM EDT Tuesday...The potential still exists this
afternoon and evening for some stronger storms to develop.
Latest mesoanaylsis shows ample instability at the surface with
strong shear above 500mb. The 0-6km shear is a bit weaker so the
only concern is whether the 60-80kts of shear aloft will be too
strong for the 1000J/kg of CAPE and will shear off the top of
any building thunderstorms. Best chance to see any activity will
generally be across Vermont and the immediate Champlain Valley.

The diurnally driven showers should taper off quickly this
evening as we transition to some lingering orographic rain
showers overnight. Lows this evening should fall into the mid
50s outside the Champlain Valley and in the low 60s near Lake
Champlain.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 355 PM EDT Tuesday...Behind the upper level trough the
flow becomes northwest which will act to drive in a drier
airmass. High pressure develops and remains in firm control
until late Thursday as an upper level trough slowly starts to
increase cloud cover across the North Country. The main forecast
challenges will be how cold do we bottom out at in the Northern
Adirondacks Wednesday night. With calm winds/clear skies, I
wouldn`t be surprised Thursday morning to see Saranac Lake in
the 30s. Warm air advection returns though for Thursday as temps
trend back towards near normal for Thursday afternoon and
overnight.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 412 PM EDT Tuesday...Available medium range guidance is
showing good agreement through early next week.

Period begins with ridging at the surface and aloft before
sliding east of the area and bringing the return of
precipitation early Friday. Heavy rainfall may become possible
as PWAT values around 2" Friday afternoon and Friday evening.
Surface front slowly moves east bringing and end to the
precipitation Saturday. Quiet weather returns during the day
Sunday and Sunday night as a ridge builds back over the eastern
seaboard.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Through 12Z Wednesday...Any afternooon and evening convection
will clear the area by mid-evening. North to northwest winds
will develop by Wednesday morning with VFR conditions during the
day.

Outlook...

Wednesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Thursday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Thursday Night: VFR. Slight Chance SHRA.
Friday: VFR/MVFR. Occasional SHRA.
Friday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA.
Saturday: VFR. Chance SHRA.
Saturday Night: VFR. Slight Chance SHRA.
Sunday: VFR. Chance SHRA.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Deal
NEAR TERM...Deal
SHORT TERM...Deal
LONG TERM...Manning
AVIATION...Manning



 
 
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