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  Tuesday June 27, 2017

 

NWS Area Forecast Discussion


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FXUS61 KBTV 241711
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
111 PM EDT Sat Jun 24 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Showers will be moving east out of the area as the morning
wears on today. Sunshine is also expected to develop as well.
Highs will be a few degrees above normal today then return to
seasonal normals on Sunday as clouds increasing along with the
chance for showers. Unsettled weather is expected for much of
next week with chances for showers just about everyday.
Temperatures will be slightly below normal through midweek then
slightly above normal for the end of the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
As of 935 AM EDT Saturday...Minor update to slow clearing
trends a bit through the morning hours east, and to massage pops
across VT counties through late morning. Still expecting deeper
drying this afternoon as boundary layer mixes out and dewpoints
lower into the 50s under developing westerly flow. By later
this afternoon additional weak trough line will approach the
intl border, so the idea of scattered showers/isolated storms
far north later in the day into this evening still looks on
track. With PWATS lowering to below an inch, excessive rainfall
rates will not be an issue as was the case yesterday. Have a
great day.

Previous discussion...Transition day today with "cold" front
moving west to east through the forecast area and lower humidity
air advecting in from the northwest. The line of showers we`ve
been watching all night has moved east of Champlain valley ahead
of the front, and will continue on eastward during pre- dawn
hours and exit Vermont. Front has moved out of St. Lawrence
Valley into the northern Adirondacks with surface winds turning
westerly in St. Lawrence and Franklin counties NY and dewpoints
starting to fall into the 60s. Light convection firing to the
south in the central Adirondacks, while 88D radar picking up a
fine line signature to the north.

Today through tonight a full latitude upper trough deepens
across the east central US with southwest flow over the
northeast. A shortwave trough moving out of the mean trough will
pass over the area this morning through mid day. Shortwave along
with forecast CAPE 500-700 j/kg near the Canadian border will
keep chance pops alive mainly in the north. Noticeably drier
air works in this afternoon and overnight, and along with a
shortwave ridge aloft will diminish rain chances overnight.
Front is cold in name only, with temperatures in the 70s to low
80s today. 850 mb temps support a few degrees warmer, however
clouds around should limit the potential. Cooler temperatures
tonight, with lows in the 50s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 357 AM EDT Saturday...Shortwave trough will be moving
into the area on Sunday...especially during the afternoon hours.
Thus looking at increasing clouds and increasing chances for
showers. Highs will generally be in the 70s. The shortwave
trough exits the area Sunday night and most of the precipitation
will exit the area as well. Another shortwave trough moves in
on Monday and as a result...plenty of clouds will persist and
chances for showers will increase once again during the
afternoon hours. Highs will be in the upper 60s to mid 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 357 AM EDT Saturday...Overall still looking at an
unsettled period. An upper level trough of low pressure will
exist over eastern Canada and the Northeast through midweek. A
series of shortwave troughs will move through the trough and
enhance the potential for showers right through midweek. Below
normal temperatures are expected during this period. The pattern
will change for Thursday and Friday as flow aloft becomes more
westerly. Temperatures will warm up with highs in the mid 70s to
lower 80s. With the upper flow remaining more westerly over our
area...the chances for showers and storms will exist.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Through 18Z Sunday...VFR through 03Z with mainly SKC to
scattered cigs in the 040-080 AGL range. Winds generally west to
northwesterly from 8-13 kts and occasionally gusty into the
15-20 kt range. A weak trough dropping south toward the intl
border may spark a few showers in the 22-03Z time frame with
highest probability of occurrence at KMSS. Most terminals should
remain pcpn-free however. After 03Z winds abate to light with
differing signals on degree/coverage of patchy br/fg across the
area. Despite ambient flow from 10-15 kts just off the deck,
wet/near saturated soils from recent moderate/heavy rainfall
boosts confidence on more bullish solutions. Fow now will offer
patchy 2-5sm br at most terminals in the 06-12Z time frame,
though admittedly whether specific terminals actually fog in is
a matter for debate. Highest probabilities at favored terminals
of KMPV/KSLK and to a lesser extent KRUT. After 12Z Sunday VFR
returns with sct cigs from 050-090 AGL as winds trend light
south/southwesterly from 4-8 kts.

Outlook...

Sunday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA...Slight Chance TSRA.
Monday: VFR. Chance SHRA.
Monday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA.
Tuesday: VFR. Likely SHRA.
Tuesday Night: VFR. Slight Chance SHRA.
Wednesday: VFR. Chance SHRA.
Wednesday Night: VFR. Slight Chance SHRA.
Thursday: VFR. Chance SHRA...Chance TSRA.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Evenson
NEAR TERM...JMG/Hanson
SHORT TERM...Evenson
LONG TERM...Evenson
AVIATION...JMG



 
 
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