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  Thursday October 19, 2017

 

NWS Area Forecast Discussion


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000
FXUS61 KBTV 161145
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
745 AM EDT Mon Oct 16 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold frontal passage overnight is ushering in drier air and
more seasonable temperatures on gusty northwesterly winds. Winds
will gradually subside during the day, but clouds will be slow
to break. High temperatures will be roughly 20 degrees cooler
than Sunday, only reaching the low to mid 50s in most areas, and
remaining in the 40s across the northern Adirondacks. Clearing
skies and light winds will result in chilly temperatures
tonight, with lows in the mid 20s to mid 30s, warmest near Lake
Champlain. Will see areas of frost tonight, along with patchy
dense fog in the favored river valleys, especially across
central and eastern Vermont. Winds switch into the south on
Tuesday, and a warming trend will commence with dry conditions
throughout the week. Highs will generally be in the 60s to lower
70s for Wednesday through next weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 742 AM EDT Monday...Much more fall-like conditions today
following Sunday`s warmth. Surface cold front has pushed east
of the CT river valley and strong low-level CAA continues in its
wake this morning. Dewpoints are dropping into the 30s across
srn Quebec and the St. Lawrence Valley, and 850mb 0C line is
pushing into the Champlain Valley at 08Z. Temp of 37F currently
at KSLK. Upstream IR satellite trends suggest clouds will
remain abundant through the daylight hrs today, as frontal
inversion traps clouds/moisture below 875mb level. Will see some
breaks in the overcast this afternoon, but generally looking at
mostly cloudy skies with cloud ceilings 2-3kft. Above factors
will keep daytime highs only in the low- mid 50s, and mid-upr
40s for the nrn Adirondacks. Readings will be a good 20DEG
cooler than observed highs on Sunday. NW winds will remain gusty
this morning with steep low-level lapse rates, generally 10-20
mph with gusts to 30 mph...but gradually decrease by this
afternoon.

Surface ridge axis builds into our region from the Great Lakes
tonight, and increased subsidence and lighter winds will allow
stratus and stratocu to break up toward/after sunset. Will see
good radiational cooling with lows ranging from the mid 20s
across the nrn Adirondacks and nern VT, to the mid 30s across
the Champlain Islands. The local frost/freeze program remains
active across the Champlain Valley. As a result, have issued
freeze warnings in the Champlain Valley (05-12Z Tuesday),
except a frost advisory for the Champlain Islands with the
moderating influence of the warm lake temps (still in the low
60s).

Sfc ridge axis translates to our east Tuesday allowing a
southerly return flow of 10-15 mph to set up. This will begin a
moderating temperature trend under mostly clear skies. Should
see high temperatures in the 55-60F range. PoPs NIL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 338 AM EDT Monday...High pressure will dominate the
weather pattern throughout the rest of the week. Quiet and dry
conditions are expected with little in the way of weather to
speak of. Slight warm air advection will increase temps back
above normal with 925mb temps warming to +12 to +14 which will
support highs in the 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 338 AM EDT Monday...The persistent upper level ridge will
continue to build over the North Country leaving almost nil
chances for precip through the weekend. Temps will continue to
be above normal with highs in 60s and lows in the mid 40s. We
should see a slight airmass change on Thursday as a upper level
low pressure system over the Hudson Bay will try to drag a cold
front through the North Country but the system will be moisture
deprived so even if the front gets here there shouldn`t be any
chance for rain. The more likely solution is that we see some
cloud cover on Thursday into Friday and that leads to a
dampening of temperatures. The weekend looks like its going to
be another warm one as warm air advection will bring temps near
70 to the Champlain Valley with full sun. All in all the
extended is fairly quiet with calm weather expected.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Through 12Z Tuesday...NW winds 10-15kt with gusts to 25kts will
continue through mid-morning in the wake of the cold front
which moved through during the overnight hrs. Will be dealing
with abundant MVFR ceilings (BKN-OVC020-030) this morning with
HIR TRRN OBSCD. Ceilings will gradually improve back to VFR
this afternoon, except possibly at KSLK. Will see clearing and
lighter winds tonight. May see periods of LIFR fog at MPV/SLK
07-12Z Tuesday with light wind and clear sky conditions.

Outlook...

Tuesday: VFR. Breezy. Patchy FG.
Tuesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Thursday: VFR. Breezy. NO SIG WX.
Thursday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Friday: VFR. NO SIG WX.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...Freeze Warning from 1 AM to 8 AM EDT Tuesday for VTZ002-005-
     009.
     Frost Advisory from 1 AM to 8 AM EDT Tuesday for VTZ001.
NY...Freeze Warning from 1 AM to 8 AM EDT Tuesday for NYZ028-035.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Banacos
NEAR TERM...Banacos
SHORT TERM...Deal
LONG TERM...Deal
AVIATION...Banacos



 
 
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