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  Thursday July 19, 2018

 

NWS Area Forecast Discussion


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543
FXUS61 KBTV 180752
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
352 AM EDT Wed Jul 18 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure building into the North Country will produce drier
and cooler temperatures today with northwest winds at 5 to 15
mph. A chilly night is anticipated tonight with lows in the mid
40s to mid 50s. Temperatures return to above normal values by
the end of the week, along with increasing chances for rain
showers by Sunday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 338 AM EDT Wednesday...Water vapor shows mid/upper level
trof axis directly overhead this morning with building 1020mb
high pres located over northern MI. The combination of large
scale subsidence and building high pres will result in mostly
sunny skies today. Expecting a few fair wx cumulus clouds to
develop as leftover boundary layer moisture on upslope
northwest flow is lifted by the higher trrn as convective temps
are reached. Also, a few lingering mid level clouds are possible
with cyclonic flow aloft over the nek this morning. Otherwise,
progged 850mb temps btwn 8-10c support highs upper 60s to
mid/upper 70s across our cwa today with northwest winds 5 to 15
mph. A few higher gusts btwn 18-20 mph possible.

Tonight...High pres directly overhead will produce clear skies
and light winds, allowing temps to quickly drop after sunset.
Sharp low level thermal inversion will develop with coolest
readings in the deeper/protected valleys of the dacks/nek. Have
trended toward the ece guidance for slk, which has 36f, which
looks reasonable. Thinking lows mainly mid 40s to mid 50s,
except upper 30s nek/slk. Fog/br development is tricky with some
areas probably reaching cross over values, but area will be 24
hours removed from measurable precip. Thinking best chc will be
eastern/central vt, especially lower ct river valley near VSF.
Maybe some patchy fog near Lake Placid/SLK toward sunrise on
Thursday.

Thursday...dry weather continues with sfc high pres and building
heights aloft. Progged 925mb to 850mb temps warm 2 to 3 degrees
from Weds values and support highs mid 70s to lower 80s most
locations under mostly sunny skies.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 338 AM EDT Wednesday...High pressure will remain draped
across the Northeast CONUS during the short term. Therefore,
anticipate clear skies, light winds, and other than perhaps some
patchy river valley fog early Friday morning, fair weather.
Thursday night lows will mainly be in the 50s, though the usual
cold spots in the Northeast Kingdom and Adirondacks will drop
into the 40s. Friday`s 925mb temperatures will be several
degrees warmer than Thursday, so, likewise, daytime highs will
also be warmer, generally in lower to mid 80s across the higher
elevations, while the St Lawrence and Champlain Valleys will top
out in the mid to upper 80s.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 338 AM EDT Wednesday...We will finish up the week with
another hot and dry day, then we`ll see an unsettled pattern
settle in for much of next week. High pressure will exit to our
east on Saturday, making way for an upper trough to dig into the
Great Lakes/Midwest states. The first closed low early in the
week will become more of an open wave after spinning over the
Midwest states for 24-48 hours, but another upper digging upper
trough will soon approach from Ontario/Quebec on Tuesday. These
features combined with the Bermuda high will result in deep
southwest flow across the North Country. Warm and moist air will
stream northward in this southwest flow, resulting in
widespread shower chances Sunday right into the middle of the
week. Precipitation will likely be focused during the daylight
hours as we destabilize with heating, then wane through the
overnight once the sun sets. Model progs indicate enough
instability will exist for a chance of thunderstorms through
much of the period. Temperatures will be near to above normal,
particularly at night as the abundant moisture keeps lows well
into the 60s, approaching 70 in some spots.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Through 06Z Thursday...Sfc high pres is building into our taf
sites with mainly vfr conditions expected. Still watching some
lingering ifr cigs at rutland, but expect this to lift by 06z.
Otherwise...northwest winds btwn 5 to 10 knots should limit
fog/br development overnight. However, winds have decoupled at
slk with near 100% sfc rh values, so a brief period of ifr in
fog/br possible toward sunrise. Mostly sunny with a few fair wx
cumulus expected on Weds with northwest winds 5 to 15 knots.
Winds become light and variable on Weds evening with mainly
clear skies.

Outlook...

Thursday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Thursday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Friday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Friday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Saturday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Saturday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
Sunday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance SHRA.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Taber
NEAR TERM...Taber
SHORT TERM...Hastings
LONG TERM...Hastings
AVIATION...Taber



 
 
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