FXUS61 KBTV 120531
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
131 AM EDT Mon Apr 12 2021
A weak occluded front has stalled across southern and central New
York but should make some progress northward with rain chances
increasing across far southern Vermont and portions of northern New
York tonight. Otherwise, dry conditions are expected through the
middle of next week with high pressure building back across the
region. Temperatures will be a little cooler than what we have
observed as of late but we will still see values 5 to 15 degrees
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 123 AM EDT Monday...No significant changes were needed
with this update. The bulk of the precipitation remains just off
to our south and west, though there has been an ever so slight
northward shift over the past hour or so. Still expect the band
of precip to move back south early Monday morning. Otherwise,
partly to mostly cloudy skies will prevail with temperatures to
fall into the upper 30s to upper 40s. The forecast has this all
pretty much covered, so only made minor tweaks to match the
latest radar trends.
Previous discussion...To say the ridge of high pressure
overhead is stubborn is an understatement as precipitation has
once again struggled to move into the North Country. The
occluded front that we have been talking about for several days
now has stalled across southern and central New York and shows
little to no sign of trying to advance northward. There are some
light radar reflectivities forming closer to us but surface
observations show 20 degree dewpoint depressions and no rainfall
making it to the surface. Given the trends we have seen, we
have begun to really ramp down PoPs and QPF through the
afternoon and overnight hours tonight. Nevertheless, we still
have some 60 to 70 percent PoPs across far southern St. Lawrence
County. Rainfall amounts are now expected to be less than a
tenth of an inch across the entire region with the exception of
southern St. Lawrence County which could see upwards to 0.25" if
they are lucky.
The backdoor cold front, which is highly visible in the theta-e
fields this afternoon, will continue to sag southward and will
suppress rain chances south of our forecast area for Monday and
Monday night. "Cooler" temperatures are in store for Monday with
highs in the mid 50s to mid 60s but these values continue to be 10-
15 degrees above seasonal normals. While we could seriously use some
rain as drought conditions begin to establish across the region,
having this kind of weather for this extended period is quite rare
so try to enjoy it while it is here.
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 307 PM EDT Sunday...Excellent example of a col developing over
our area for much of Tuesday and Tuesday night. This will result in
quiet weather during the period with no precipitation, highs in the
mid 50s to lower 60s on Tuesday, and lows Tuesday night in the mid
30s to mid 40s.
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 307 PM EDT Sunday...Wednesday is still looking like a nice day
with relatively dry weather expected. Cannot rule out the
possibility of a few showers later in the day, but only going with a
slight chance at this point for parts of northern New York. Over the
past week we have been waiting for upper lows forecast to move
across our area and they essentially have not. The next one is
forecast to approach the area on Thursday and Friday. With the
blocking pattern of late, the longer range data struggling to handle
all of the upper lows, and not everyone on board with the track of
this latest feature it may be best to increase precipitation chances
a little, but not significantly ramp up numbers just yet. So will
mention precipitation chances in the slight chance and chance
categories for now during the Thursday through Friday time period.
Looks like we return to a dry pattern for the weekend. High
temperatures during the extended period will generally be about 4 to
8 degrees above normal for this time of year.
.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Through 06Z Tuesday...VFR conditions will persist through the 24
hour TAF period as a frontal boundary remains draped from the
southern St Lawrence Valley into southern VT. Ceilings will
mainly remain AOA 5000 ft, with local ceilings around 3500 ft at
KRUT. Light rain or VCSH possible at KRUT overnight/early Monday
morning, but no impacts are expected. East to southeast winds 5
to 10 kt through much of the period, with gustiness at KMSS and
Tuesday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
Wednesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Thursday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Slight chance
Thursday Night: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Slight
Friday: Mainly MVFR, with local VFR possible. Chance SHRA.