075
FXUS61 KBTV 131128
AFDBTV
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
728 AM EDT Sat Sep 13 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
An upper level disturbance will bring increased cloud cover
and the chance for light rain showers into Sunday. No
significant precipitation is expected with any of these showers,
so drought conditions will continue. Prolonged dry weather
prevails for next week with temperatures warming above seasonal
normals by mid-week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 157 AM EDT Saturday...For today, we`ll have mostly cloudy skies
and seasonable temperatures. A shortwave will track over the region,
but the better moisture will be south as flow will remain mostly
west-northwest, which prevents any lake moisture from helping
enhance precipitation. So 10-25 PoPs will be the theme today. We`ll
see stuff on radar, but mid-level dry air will prevent much from
reaching the ground. Temperatures will rise into the upper 60s to
mid 70s with light southwest surface winds. Greater cloud cover will
keep temperatures tonight a bit warmer, with mid 40s to mid 50s.
Another shortwave will dig south overnight and spark additional
showers. The second shortwave will begin to edge east by Sunday
morning. A few showers could linger across some of our mountain
areas, but we will generally observe clearing as the day wears on.
With a little more sunshine, temperatures will be warmer with
highs solidly in the 70s.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 157 AM EDT Saturday...Building high pressure will move in
Sunday night and dominate the short and long term. Early morning
lows will be seasonable in the 40s to low 50s with daytime highs on
Monday in the 70s. Cloud cover should also be minimal leading to
quiet and comfortable to the start of the week.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 157 AM EDT Saturday...High pressure will continue to dominate,
and with that the continuing worsening of the drought conditions
across the region. Overall, we`ll see a gradual warming trend
through Thursday as high temperatures get back into the low 80s
across the region before the first chance of any precipitation comes
late Thursday and into Friday. Though even now, models are beginning
to back off on chances for perception as guidance has us under
ridging surrounded by upper lows in the Upper Midwest, the Hudson
Bay and in the Atlantic off the SE New England coastline. So our
period of dry weather could easily reach two weeks since the last
round of precipitation last weekend.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Through 12z Sunday...Conditions are VFR over all terminals.
Virga is being noted on radar as an upper level disturbance
brings light activity, but mid-level dry air is preventing rain
from reaching the ground. Between about 14z and 20z, a few of
these showers could reach the ground, but will likely have no
impacts to visibility or ceilings. Although ceilings lower this
afternoon, we will see clouds at or above 5000 ft agl. Winds
today will trend south to southwesterly about 4 to 8 knots,
though with some terrain influences, like a southeast wind at
KPBG. After 00z, clouds are expected to scatter and winds trend
light and variable. There`s disagreement to what extent clouds
dissipate. On one hand, probabilistic guidance is bullish on
fog development, but with another upper level disturbance likely
to create clouds and showers, this lends some uncertainty to
fog. For now, have noted 3 or 4SM at KEFK, KSLK, and KMPV
beginning about 06-08z.
Outlook...
Sunday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
Sunday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Monday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Monday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Haynes
NEAR TERM...Haynes
SHORT TERM...Verasamy
LONG TERM...Verasamy
AVIATION...Haynes
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