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  Thursday March 28, 2024

 

NWS Area Forecast Discussion


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FXUS61 KBTV 251414
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
1014 AM EDT Mon Mar 25 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
After a cold start to the day, temperatures will warm nicely
today under a sunny sky. By Tuesday afternoon, low clouds will
spread in from the southeast, and some drizzle or freezing
drizzle will become possible by Wednesday morning especially in
central and eastern portions of Vermont. Otherwise, most
locations will be rather mild midweek despite cloud cover and
some rain showers. While the forecast becomes more uncertain
late in the week with a potential stronger system, by early next
week a colder pattern is expected to return.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 1007 AM EDT Monday...No significant changes were made as the
forecast is largely on track. Increased cloud cover slightly
over far eastern Vermont as high clouds have spread into that
region from a storm off the coast. However, the clouds are thin
enough it is still mostly sunny there despite the clouds.
Temperatures have been rapidly rising today and they will
continue to rise quickly for much of of the morning. SLK has
already warmed 28 degrees off its low. Previous discussion
follows...

Previous Discussion... Very quiet weather continues today. Our
region is sandwiched in between the outflow of a strong ocean
storm and a blizzard in the Plains states. Another sunny but
milder day is expected. With our air mass gradually moderating
since yesterday, temperatures this afternoon should climb into
the 40s in most lower elevation locations, resulting in
substantial snow melt. As low pressure lifts northeastward
through the Midwest, the surface high in our region will shift
northeastward as well. By tomorrow morning, increasing low level
southeasterly flow roughly two to four thousand feet above
ground level will draw moisture from the ocean storm back into
eastern New England. This pattern also should keep temperatures
relatively mild, with forecast lows mainly in the upper teens to
mid 20s. Although rain will not reach back into Vermont with
too shallow and warm of a cloud layer expected, the stratus
clouds could greatly limit heating tomorrow, especially if they
develop on the earlier side. Think the blended model guidance
looks really good for high temperatures nearing 60 in the St.
Lawrence Valley and low 50s in the northern Adirondacks and
Champlain Valley where clouds will be minimal, while limited to
the mid 40s in central/northeastern Vermont and low 40s in
southeastern Vermont. However, there is relatively low
confidence with regards to temperatures east of the Green
Mountains tomorrow.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 319 AM EDT Monday...A highly amplified pattern continues with
some downstream blocking associated with high pres over low pres
acrs the western/central Atlantic, while deep mid/upper lvl trof
approaches from the west. The position of sfc high pres over
northern Maine, wl help to advect low level moisture back into
central/eastern VT on Tues night into Weds, while mid/upper lvl trof
and associated cold frnt approach the SLV. As low level moisture
deepens on Tues night, expect some areas of drizzle/freezing drizzle
for eastern/central VT associated with maritime airmass moving into
the region. Less confidence over the NEK as White Mtns to the east
may block moisture and cause some downsloping to decrease precip
threat. Temps on Tues night hover near freezing eastern sections to
lower 40s SLV associated with south/southwest flow. Temps are
challenging again on Weds, especially east of the Greens, where llvl
thermal inversion associated with snow pack and lighter southeast
flow may hold. In addition, clouds wl be increasing ahead of our
next cold frnt, along with some chances for scattered rain showers.
For now have trimmed 3 to 5 degrees off NBM east of the Greens, but
trended higher over northern NY due progged 925mb temps btwn 5-7C.
If better mixing occurs east of the Greens, temps wl be 5 to 8
degrees warmer than fcst. QPF amounts look generally under 0.25"
which is a good thing, considering the amount of new snow and
warming temps. We wl continue to monitor rivers and associated
rises, but threat for flooding remains low at this time. Weds night
chances for showers slowly shifts eastward with boundary and
dynamics. Temps hold mostly in the mid 30s to lower 40s as caa id
delayed until Thurs.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 319 AM EDT Monday...Deep full latitude mid/upper lvl trof acrs
the central Great Lakes into the southern Appalachian Mtns wl slowly
shift eastward, while sfc boundary becomes stationary along the East
Coast. Secondary s/w energy is progged to dive southward and develop
low pres along the boundary on Thurs, while mid/upper lvl trof axis
becomes negatively tilted. The timing of sfc low pres and associated
strength, along with how quickly mid/upper lvl trof becomes
negatively tilted wl have greatly influence our wx. Latest GFS/ECMWF
and CMC all show some sort of coastal sfc low pres track
east/southeast of the 40/70 benchmark, but several ensemble members
of the ECMWF and GFS show potential for a western track and
spreading greater precip back into the eastern Dacks/CPV late week.
Given the magnitude and potential for a negatively tilted trof,
latest trends in guidance wl need to be watched closely for the
potential of greater impacts acrs our cwa. Thermal profiles suggest
ptype would depend upon elevation. For now have continued with chc
pops east/central cwa with schc northern NY. Given the large spread
in guidance, especially the ensemble data, I would anticipate
additional tweaks needed to the fcst over the next couple of days.
As we head into next week, guidance is in relatively good agreement
with development of mid/upper trof and cooling temps associated with
northwest flow. This would have the potential for some upslope
precip, probably in the form of snow showers for the mtns. Temps
cool back into the upper 20s summits to lower/mid 40s valleys by
next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Through 12Z Tuesday...Clear skies, or some cirrus, will lead to
VFR conditions through the 24 hr TAF period. Up to 4 knots of
wind this morning will trend into the 4 to 8 knot range for much
of the remaining period out of the southeast. These winds will
likely be gusty at RUT, near 20 knots, especially from 15Z
through 00Z.



Outlook...

Tuesday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday Night: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. Chance SHRA.
Wednesday: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Chance SHRA.
Wednesday Night: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. Chance SHRA.
Thursday: Mainly IFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance SHRA.
Thursday Night: VFR/MVFR conditions possible. Chance SHRA.
Friday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight chance SHRA,
Slight chance SHSN.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Kutikoff
NEAR TERM...Kutikoff/Myskowski
SHORT TERM...Taber
LONG TERM...Taber
AVIATION...Kutikoff


 
 
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