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  Tuesday May 23, 2017

 

NWS Area Forecast Discussion


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000
FXUS61 KBTV 211941
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
341 PM EDT Sun May 21 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Surface high pressure will translate east of New England this
evening allowing a warm front to push into the North Country
from the eastern Great Lakes region. We will see periods of
rain developing this evening across northern New York, and
during the overnight hours across central and northern Vermont.
Lighter rain showers and overcast skies will linger during the
day Monday, resulting in relatively cool temperatures. Rainfall
amounts between one-third and one-half inch are generally
expected across the North Country tonight into Monday morning.
Dry conditions return on Tuesday with a brief period of surface
high pressure.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
As of 231 PM EDT Sunday...At 18Z, strong sfc anticyclone
extended from the Gulf of St. Lawrence southward across ern New
England. This system has brought dry low-level conditions and
light winds to the region thus far today. This system tilts
westward with height, and have seen building 700-500mb heights
throughout the afternoon across nrn NY and VT. That said, there
is abundant mid-upper level moisture entrained in
anticyclonically curved flow aloft, which will yield mostly
cloudy skies/filtered sunshine through the remainder of the
daylight hrs late this aftn/early this evening. Temperatures
have risen into the upper 60s to lower 70s, with dry low-level
air mass in place (2-m dewpoints in the low-mid 30s).

Mosaic composite radar reflectivity indicates axis of
steady/moderate rainfall across sern Ontario swd across far wrn
NY/wrn PA and ern OH at 1830Z. There are some leading echoes
east of Lake Ontario into St. Lawrence County NY, which will
bring a few light sprinkles or isold -SHRA across nrn NY late
this afternoon/early this evening. However, bulk of steady
precipitation doesn`t reach nrn NY until after 00Z, with onset
of stronger 850-700mb WAA and isentropic ascent approaching from
the SW. Mesoscale models, including the HRRR/BTV-4km WRF and
NAM-Nest all show rainfall reaching the Champlain Valley by 03Z
or so, and far ern VT by 05-06Z. Anticipate a 5-6hr period of
rainfall, yielding amts generally between 0.33-0.50" thru early
Monday morning. Will also see increasing P-gradient overnight.
This will result in low-level channeling of winds in the
Champlain Valley, with gusts locally up to 30 mph in the BTV
area. A Lake Wind Advisory has been issued for Lake Champlain
beginning at midnight as south winds increase to 15-25kts during
the pre-dawn hrs. Overnight lows will generally be in the mid-
upr 40s tonight.

Best large-scale forcing slides to our east between 12-15Z
Monday, but NAM RH profiles indicate continued saturated
conditions in 950-850mb layer, and skies will generally remain
cloudy with low overcast in place. The low-level inversion
layer in place will keep sfc temps cool, despite 850mb thermal
ridge in place (+10C to +11C) across nrn NY. Sfc high temps
generally low- mid 50s east of the Greens, upr 50s in the
Champlain Valley, and upr 50s to lower 60s across nrn NY.
Maintained a chance of showers Monday afternoon. There is some
indication of a trailing sfc trough/convergence line moving ewd
across nrn NY into VT late in the afternoon, which may result in
an additional period of (brief) rain shower activity.

A weak sfc ridge builds newd into our region from western NY
Monday night. This results in lowering inversion layer and light
near-sfc winds. With moist soils, will see combination of
abundant low clouds and patchy fog areawide. Moist layer is
quite shallow, so not anticipating any precipitation. Lows
Monday night mainly 43-48F.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 339 PM EDT Sunday...The short term looks to be the quiet
intermission between the unsettled periods of the near and long
term. After the passage of a cold front and associated trough, a
weak ridge moves in, leaving Tuesday looking like a dry and fair
day across the region. Winds will remain west-southwesterly
behind the front so little change in the air mass leads to
warmer temperatures than just prior to frontal passage with
highs in the upper 60s and low 70s. Gradual increased cloud
cover moving in from the west Tuesday night ahead of the next
system will lead to low temperatures low 50s in the western
counties and 40s in the eastern half.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 339 PM EDT Sunday...The long term pics up again in
activity as multiple systems will impact the area through to
the weekend. A coastal low moves northeast into New England. The
GFS and ECMWF still disagree on the inland advection of the
precipitation with the GFS keeping it mostly offshore while the
ECMWF being more aggressive and extended the precip into
Southeast VT. For now have just kept chance PoPs east of the
Greens for Wednesday.

Thursday has a positively tilted upper trough associated surface
low over Ohio Valley with a closed off upper low. The low
progresses slowly to the northwest of the CWA before shifting
west over the northern counties. This leads to and extended
period of unsettled conditions and potential for precipitation
from midday Thursday and through midday Friday as low pushes out
to the coast. Lingering showers in the higher terrain remains
in the resulting northwest flow through to early Saturday
afternoon. The second half the weekend sees a high pressure
ridge begin to build back in leading to a brief return to fair
conditions.

High temperatures in the long term will range from the upper 60s to
upper 70s, while lows will be in the 40s to 50s.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Through 18z Monday...Mid-level cloud cover (BKN-OVC100-150)
will spread ewd across the TAF locations this afternoon and
early this evening. Will see a gradual lowering of cloud
ceilings through the evening with increasing chances for rain
showers, especially during the overnight hrs. After midnight,
should see development of MVFR ceilings (2-3kft) at SLK/MSS,
along with HIR TRRN OBSCD areawide and vsby 4-5SM at times in
showers and BR. There is a chance of MVFR ceilings at the
remaining TAF locations, but anticipate predominantly 3-4kft
ceiling heights for RUT/BTV/PBG. Should see MVFR developing at
MPV by 14Z/Mon.

Winds generally less than 10kts through 06Z. Thereafter, should
see some gusts from the south approaching 20kts at BTV/PBG as
gradient flow strengthens toward daybreak.

Outlook...

Monday Night: MVFR ceilings with isold IFR in FG. Chance SHRA.
Tuesday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday: VFR. Chance SHRA.
Wednesday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA.
Thursday: VFR/MVFR. Likely SHRA.
Thursday Night: VFR. Likely SHRA.
Friday: MVFR. Likely SHRA.

&&

.MARINE...
A Lake Wind Advisory is in effect starting at midnight (04Z
Monday). Gradient flow increases out of the south during the
pre- dawn hours Monday, with sustained winds over Lake
Champlain reaching 15-25kts after midnight and waves building to
2-4 feet. The highest waves are expected across the northern
portion of the broad lake south of Grand Isle. South winds will
remain generally in the 15-25kt range during the daylight hours
on Monday, before diminishing Monday evening.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Banacos
NEAR TERM...Banacos
SHORT TERM...MV
LONG TERM...MV
AVIATION...Banacos
MARINE...Team BTV


 
 
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