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  Thursday October 19, 2017

 

NWS Area Forecast Discussion


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000
FXUS61 KBTV 171814
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
214 PM EDT Tue Oct 17 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Strong high pressure will bring dry weather through the
remainder of the week. After a chilly start this morning, a
warming trend will commence as winds switch into the south to
southwest this afternoon. Highs in the mid to upper 50s today
will moderate into the 60s to low 70s during the next 5 to 7
days, which will be well-above average for mid-October.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 920 AM EDT Tuesday...Quick update to the forecast to
bring in slightly higher cloud coverage across our northwestern
border areas through the noontime hour per satellite trends.
Really just mid level stuff above 5000 ft. Rest of forecast
remains unchanged. Have a great day!

Prior discussion...
Synoptically quiescent conditions with clear skies and sfc
anticyclone bisecting the North Country early this morning.
Light winds in place and will see areas of frost early this
morning. A chilly start with sunrise temps generally 25-35F,
warmest near Lake Champlain. Did see the first freeze of the
season at BTV, with 32F recorded around 538am.

Sfc ridge slides east of VT by 18Z inducing a S-SW return flow.
Winds increase to 5-10mph across central/ern VT, 10-15 mph in
the Champlain Valley, and locally 15-20 mph with gusts to 30 mph
in the St. Lawrence Valley with stronger p-gradient and valley
channeled flow. Will see temps moderate a bit with just passing
thin mid-upr level clouds. Afternoon highs expected to range
from the low 50s east of the Green Mtns, to the upr 50s in the
Champlain Valley, and generally 55-60F across nrn NY. PoPs NIL.

Quiet conditions persist tonight thru Wednesday. Continued S-SW
gradient flow will mean PBL remains mixed in most locations and
temperatures won`t be as cool. Lows tonight generally mid 40s
for the St. Lawrence and Champlain Valleys, and mid-upr 30s
across the nrn Adirondacks and ern VT. Highs on Wednesday will
moderate into the mid 60s in most valley locations.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
As of 250 AM EDT Tuesday...High pressure at the surface will
continue as an upper level shortwave crosses to our north. Given
the last trends in guidance and the lack of precipitable water
(< 0.8"), I`ve gone ahead and removed mention of any precip
over the northern tier of Vermont. Anticipate some clouds moving
into the North Country and a subtle wind shift from south
westerly winds to westerly winds. There should be some funneling
up the Saint Lawrence and Champlain Valleys so it should be
pretty breezy in the Saint Lawrence Thursday afternoon. I`ve
increased gusts to 20-30mph out of the south just ahead of the
frontal passage. Winds in the higher terrain should be fairly
brisk. 850-700mb winds should be in 45-50kt range. Otherwise it
should be just another warm day in the North Country with temps
around 70 in the valleys and upper 60s elsewhere. We cool down
briefly but not even close to near normal on the backside of the
front as temps overnight fall into the low to mid 40s.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 250 AM EDT Tuesday...Heading into the weekend the high
pressure returns as a broad 1025mb high develops over the
eastern CONUS. The ridge remains firmly in place through the
weekend as anticyclonic flow brings warm air advection into the
North Country. Temps will warm 2-3 degrees each day of the
weekend with low 70s likely for Sunday. That certainly wont help
our departures from normal which as of this morning is a full 9
degrees above normal for the month.

Coming out of the weekend all of the longer ranged solutions
are pointing towards a full latitude trough digging into the
eastern CONUS which will bring showers to the region. Based on
some of the thermal packing along with that front it should be
more of our "normal" fall frontal systems with a 10-15 degree
drop in temps by Wednesday back to near normal.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Through 18Z Wednesday...No precipitation and mainly VFR through
the period under mainly scattered mid to high clouds in the
100-250 AGL range. Exception at KSLK later tonight (mainly
06-12Z Wed) where southwesterly flow will allow occasionally BKN
MVFR cigs in the 015-025 AGL range. Winds mainly south to
southwesterly 6 to 14 and gusty into the 18 to 28 kt range at
KBTV/KSLK/KMSS through 02Z, trending light southerly 4 to 8 kts
thereafter. A brief period of 30 to 40 kt southwesterly LLWS
around 020 AGL will also be possible at KMSS/KSLK/KRUT/KMPV in
the 02-08Z time frame.

Outlook...

Wednesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Thursday: VFR. Breezy. NO SIG WX.
Thursday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Friday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Friday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Saturday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Saturday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Sunday: VFR. NO SIG WX.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
KTYX radar at Fort Drum, NY will be down for scheduled maintenance
today, Tuesday, October 17 through a good portion of Wednesday,
October 18 as technicians repaint the radome.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Banacos
NEAR TERM...Banacos/JMG
SHORT TERM...Deal
LONG TERM...Deal
AVIATION...JMG
EQUIPMENT...JMG


 
 
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