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  Monday October 14, 2019

 

NWS Area Forecast Discussion


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855
FXUS61 KBTV 131130
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
730 AM EDT Sun Oct 13 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure over the North Country today will provide a
beautiful fall day with increasing sun through this afternoon. A
weak front will move through Monday, accompanied by some clouds
and a few spotty light showers. The next chance for widespread
rainfall comes Wednesday as a low pressure system moves through
the area. Temperatures will be close to seasonal norms through
Wednesday, then turn noticeably cooler Thursday and Friday
behind the low.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 618 AM EDT Sunday...A weak frontal boundary is departing
Vermont to the east. Low clouds along and just behind the
boundary will lift through the morning today, giving way to
ample sunshine by the afternoon. Surface high pressure will
crest overhead mid- day, followed by a gradual increase of
return southwesterly flow for the remainder of the day. Despite
a brief dip in 850 mb temps this morning, WAA on the
strengthening southerly flow this afternoon will allow for high
temperatures again in the low to mid 60s. Going into the
overnight, skies will remain mostly clear. However, increasingly
southwesterly flow in the low- levels will prevent overnight
temperatures from falling too sharply. Have forecast lows in the
upper 30s to mid 40s.

Monday morning, the expansive occluded low pressure system over
the Great Lakes Region will lift northeastward through Ontario
and into Quebec, pushing a weak cold/occluded front through the
North Country as it lifts out. Low-level and mid-level
instability will increase over northern NY and VT Monday in
response to the cold pool moving overhead. The increased
instability along with weak forcing associated with the
boundary will allow for a few light showers to develop during
the day. Moisture is limited however and upper-level support is
weak (nonfavorable upper jet position, best DPVA removed
further to the north towards the center of the low...). Thus,
QPF will be very limited with only a trace to a few hundredths
of an inch expected. The best chances for any measurable precip
will be over northern NY where low-level moisture will be
slightly enhanced downstream of Lake Ontario.

Temperatures do fall a bit behind the boundary, so there will be
an east- west gradient in high temperatures Monday. Northern NY
can expect temps to top out in the mid 50s to low 60s, VT will
see slightly warmer readings in the low to mid 60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 323 AM EDT Sunday...A few rain showers will linger across the
Northeast Kingdom Monday evening following the weak frontal occlusion.
Based on the thermodynamic profiles at the time, the zero degree
850 mb isotherm will still be west of Vermont which will prevent
any precipitation from mixing with snowfall through the Monday
night period prior to the showers tapering off. Temperatures
Monday night will be on the chilly side with several locations
across northern New York and northeastern Vermont dropping near
or just below freezing while other locations drop into the mid
to upper 30s. Dry air will quickly filter in from the west
Monday night which should yield mostly clear skies developing
from west to east after midnight. Shortwave ridging in the mid-
levels coupled with surface high pressure will build across the
North Country throughout the day on Tuesday which will continue
to bring mostly clear skies to the region. Honestly, Tuesday
looks to be the nicest day of the week with light winds and
clear skies but it could be a touch on the chilly side with the
cold core upper level low continuing to push eastward. Still,
given the abundant sunshine on Tuesday, high temperatures will
likely rebound toward the lower to upper 50s. Cloud cover will
begin to build back into the region Tuesday night ahead of the
next storm system which will help keep low temperatures a few
degrees warmer than Monday night with temps generally in the mid
30s to lower 40s.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 323 AM EDT Sunday...Winds will begin to increase Wednesday
morning as the pressure gradient begin to tighten across the region.
A strong surface low will track across the Great Lakes and just
north of the international border throughout the day on Wednesday.
As this happens, a secondary low will form along the triple point
just off the coast of Delaware. As is common with double barrel low
features likes this, the big question is when the secondary low
becomes the dominant feature. Deterministic guidance continues to
remain in very good agreement both spatially and temporally with the
second low forming just after noon on Wednesday. However, there is a
touch of disagreement to how far east or west this low is going to
track through the day on Wednesday. The concern with this being that
if the low takes the GFS track, which is the western track, the
North Country will get into the area of strong frontogenesis which
could create strong banded like structures which could produce some
heavy rainfall. On the other hand, if we looks at the eastward ECMWF
solution, the area of strong frontogenesis would set-up across
coastal New England with the North Country seeing more of a light to
moderate stratiform rainfall event.

Now for some details. The winds on Wednesday don`t look to overly
strong but should be in the 15-25 mph range with some gusts up to 35
mph. Due to the weakening to our northwest, the strongest gradient
should develop over coastal New England. In terms of rainfall, run
total accumulations through Thursday morning on all guidance is
between three quarters of an inch and an inch and a quarter. If you
remember the banded rainfall potential the GFS shows, there could be
some locally higher amounts if that track ends up panning out.
Nevertheless, flooding looks unlikely given how progressive the
system is expected to be and rivers have returned to base flow after
the rain event several days ago. Still, we will continue to monitor
the potential for any flooding in the coming days as we iron out the
details.

Rainfall will begin to taper off late Wednesday night closer to
Thursday morning from west to east. This reprieve in precipitation
should be rather short-lived as shower activity will quickly develop
during the mid to late morning hours on Thursday. Strong cold air
advection will help steepen the low level and mid level lapse rates
which will help produce instability showers. Decent forcing
associated with the upper level low as it begins to slide east of
Vermont will act in unison with the weak instability to help keep
showers going through much of the day Thursday and even into the
overnight hours. At this point, precipitation type begins to come
into play. Much of Vermont should start seeing 850 mb temperatures
near or below 0 degrees C which will be conducive for rain showers
at higher elevations (above 2000 ft) to mix with or change over to
snow. It`s a little too early to guess how much snow may fall at
summit level but it does look like a dusting to minor snow
accumulations does look possible late Thursday.

Any lingering shower activity will taper off Friday morning as deep
layer ridging begins to establish itself. This will bring the return
of drier weather and a warm air advection regime. Temperatures will
be 5-8 degrees below normal on Thursday and Friday but will trend
back to above normal values over the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Through 12Z Monday...Weak frontal boundary is exiting Vermont to
the east this morning. Along and just behind the boundary,
still seeing some MVFR ceilings (mainly KMPV) which will quickly
lift over the next couple of hours. By 14Z, predominantly VFR
conditions expected for the remainder of the TAF period as high
pressure builds in. Light and variable winds this morning will
become southerly by 18Z...and remain southerly under 10 kts for
the remainder of the TAF period.

Outlook...

Columbus Day: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
Monday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday: VFR. Definite RA.
Wednesday Night: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. Definite RA.
Thursday: Mainly IFR, with areas MVFR possible. Likely SHRA.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Duell
NEAR TERM...Duell
SHORT TERM...Clay
LONG TERM...Clay
AVIATION...Duell



 
 
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