000
FXUS61 KBTV 180513
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
113 AM EDT Wed Jul 18 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front moving across the North Country this afternoon
will produce scattered showers and thunderstorms. Some storms
will contain localized gusty winds, heavy down pours, and
frequent lightning. Much cooler and drier air arrives tonight on
northwest winds and building high pressure. This trend of
cooler temperatures and lower humidity values will persist for
midweek, before some warmer temperatures arrive by late this
week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON/...
As of 108 AM EDT Wednesday...Overall fcst in good shape this
morning with fa under modest low level caa on northwest winds of
5 to 15 knots. This combined with lingering mid level clouds
should limit fog development in most locations, maybe a few
patchy spots across central/southern vt. Otherwise...Whiteface
is a cool 48f and slk down to 54...while btv is 71. Expect lows
in the mid/upper 40s dacks to lower 60s cpv. All covered well in
crnt forecast.

Previous Discussion...tonight, moderate low level cold
advection develops on northwest winds of 5 to 10 knots as
mid/upper level trof swings by. The forecast challenge will be
if any fog/br can develop, especially with recent rainfall.
Continued with previous thinking that the combination of
gradient winds/mixing and some clouds overnight will limit
widespread fog development. Temps will range from the upper 40s
to lower 60s overnight.

Mid/upper level trof axis will be over head tomorrow with 850
temps cooling to 8-10C along with building high pressure.
Expect cooler temps with some fair wx cumulus clouds to develop,
especially over the higher terrain during peak heating. Temps
mainly in the 70s with northwest winds perhaps gusting to 15 to
20 mph and much lower humidity as dew points drop into the 40s.

Tomorrow night high pressure moves in with mainly clear skies
and cool temps with low temps in the 40s except lower 50s near
Lake Champlain and upper 30s at KSLK. Not sure we`ll reach
crossover temps so much widespread valley fog is questionable at
this point.

&&

.SHORT TERM /2 PM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
As of 326 PM EDT Tuesday...Conditions will be clear on
Thursday, with generally light winds. High temperatures will be
somewhat warmer as high pressure builds across the region. High
temperatures will be in the low 80s across the St. Lawrence and
Champlain Valley, and the rest of the North Country will
generally be in the 70s. Calm and clear conditions under high
pressure will lead to another night of efficient radiational
cooling Friday morning. Slightly higher thicknesses and a
transition to light southerly winds will leave low temperatures
about 3-5 degrees warmer at daybreak than Thursday morning.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 326 PM EDT Tuesday...High pressure will be in control of
our weather until Sunday morning. An upper low will be
positioned across the Great Lakes region on Sunday and open up
into a trough as it barely moves against a growing Bermuda High.
Meanwhile, favorable conditions will lend itself to height
falls across the Eastern Seaboard where a surface feature will
develop. This will quickly become entangled within the large
scale circulation of the upper trough and send a plume of
moisture northward. Forecast models remain inconsistent with
whether the surface feature tracks over our area or just off to
our east, but the increased moisture and the approaching upper
trough will lead to rain chances on Sunday. Differences continue
to grow heading into Monday, but with the presence of a new
upper trough maintaining moist southerly flow, unsettled weather
is possible next Monday and Tuesday.

Temperatures will be warm on Friday and Saturday, with highs in the
mid to upper 80s across much of the area and 70s in the higher
elevations. Lows will be in the 60s across the valleys and in the
50s throughout the rest of the region. Temperatures will remain
near to above seasonal norms through the rest of the period,
though Sunday highs should be cooler with increasing cloud cover
and southeasterly flow.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Through 06Z Thursday...Sfc high pres is building into our taf
sites with mainly vfr conditions expected. Still watching some
lingering ifr cigs at rutland, but expect this to lift by 06z.
Otherwise...northwest winds btwn 5 to 10 knots should limit
fog/br development overnight. However, winds have decoupled at
slk with near 100% sfc rh values, so a brief period of ifr in
fog/br possible toward sunrise. Mostly sunny with a few fair wx
cumulus expected on Weds with northwest winds 5 to 15 knots.
Winds become light and variable on Weds evening with mainly
clear skies.

Outlook...

Thursday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Thursday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Friday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Friday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Saturday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Saturday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
Sunday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance SHRA.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Sisson
NEAR TERM...Taber/Sisson
SHORT TERM...Haynes
LONG TERM...Haynes
AVIATION...Taber