FXUS61 KBTV 171726
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Burlington VT
126 PM EDT Sun Mar 17 2019
The area will continue to experience below normal temperatures
and some scattered snow showers through Monday morning, before a
drying trend kicks off the work week. Temperatures will remain
below seasonal norms through Tuesday night, but increasing
southerly flow Wednesday will allow temperatures to return to
near or just above normal values. Precipitation chances increase
Wednesday night through Thursday as a trough moves through.
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 940 AM EDT Sunday...Added scattered flurry activity into
the forecast today based off latest CAM/radar output. Also
introduced some of the more recent model cloud output for today
into this evening which shows slightly higher coverage over the
period. Rest of forecast remains on track showing modestly gusty
west/northwest flow and seasonably cold temperatures. Have a
Continuing to see some isolated to scattered snow showers over
the area this morning, which are lingering slightly longer than
originally anticipated. Have tweaked PoPs to account for these
lingering showers. Still on track for a drying trend through the
morning, before some redevelopment of shower activity starting
Radar imagery shows diminishing snow showers in the wake of the
passage of a weak trough earlier this morning. As an upper-
level wave exits to the east, lack of any real forcing to speak
of will support a general drying trend through the remainder of
the morning. There may be a few exceptions where a stray snow
shower may linger through around dawn though, (including
Burlington, where northwesterly flow snow showers are
notoriously hard to shut off). After dawn though, most areas
should be dry. However, HiRes models are indicating a
reblossoming of some scattered snow showers this afternoon amid
an increasingly unstable lower atmosphere. Deep forcing/moisture
is lacking however, so not expecting any accumulations. In
addition to some scattered convective snow showers, a well mixed
boundary layer extending to 800 mb or so will support some
westerly gusts, generally 10-20 mph, during the afternoon hours.
Highs today will be in the upper 20s to low 30s.
Another weak shortwave will move through the area tonight, which
will maintain some scattered light snow shower activity through
the overnight hours. Portions of the northern Adirondacks may
pick up a dusting to a few tenths of an inch thanks to some
modest moisture advecting eastward off of Lake Ontario, but not
expecting any accumulations further east in Vermont. Winds will
diminish overnight tonight, allowing temperatures to drop into
Broad cyclonic flow will remain over the region Monday, keeping
generally unsettled, cloudy weather in place. Monday does look
to trend drier though in the absence of any upper waves progged
to move through. However, can`t rule out a stray snow shower
here or there with continued instability in the low-levels.
Highs will once again be below normal in the upper 20s to low
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 321 AM EDT Sunday...Area remains in northwest flow aloft Monday
night and Tuesday. This will result in below normal
temperatures...especially with low temperatures Monday night with
lows in the single digits and teens. Highs on Tuesday will generally
be in the upper 20s to mid 30s. Not expecting any precipitation
during this period with drier air and surface high pressure building
into the region.
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 321 AM EDT Sunday...Dry weather continues Tuesday night into
the first half of Wednesday. Warm air advection develops as flow
aloft backs to the west and southwest. While low temperatures
Tuesday night will be at or below normal we should see at or above
normal temperatures on Wednesday with highs in the upper 30s to mid
40s. The backed flow to the southwest is an indication an upper
level trough is approaching and chances for precipitation will
increase as the trough moves across the area Wednesday night into
Thursday. Have gone with a chance of rain or snow showers Wednesday
night and a chance of rain showers for Thursday with snow showers
confined to the higher elevations. Starting Thursday night and
continuing into the weekend we will have northwest flow aloft become
established over the area and thus expecting a return to below
normal temperatures and drier weather with just a chance for some
lingering snow showers on Friday.
.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Through 18Z Monday...Mainly VFR through 00Z under west to
northwesterly flow of 8-12 kts and occnl gusts into the 15-20 kt
range. A passing flurry possible in higher trrn with cloud
bases generally in the 035-050 AGL range. From 00-09Z another
weak trough passage may spark a period of light snow shower
activity, most focused across higher terrain. Occnl MVFR/brief
IFR conditions possible with this activity. Given uncertainty of
coverage will only mention steadier activity at KSLK leaving
VCSH to cover other terminals. Winds backing to light
south/southwesterly at 5 kts or less during this period. After
12Z mainly VFR expected under renewed light west/northwesterly
flow from 5-10 kts behind the trough passage.
Monday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
Wednesday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance
SHRA, Chance SHSN.
Thursday: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. Chance SHRA,
Thursday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance
SHSN, Chance SHRA.
Friday: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. Chance SHSN, Chance