978
FXUS61 KBTV 031843
AFDBTV
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
143 PM EST Tue Mar 3 2026
.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
As of 142 PM EST Tuesday...
Introduced freezing rain to the forecast for Thursday night into
Friday.
&&
.KEY MESSAGES...
As of 142 PM EST Tuesday...
1. Light snow this afternoon through midnight with some spotty
freezing drizzle possible at the end.
2. More mixed precipitation possible Thursday night into Friday.
3. A period of light freezing rain is possible early Saturday,
especially east of the Green Mountains, which could produce slick
travel. Then, rain is anticipated by Saturday afternoon and evening.
4. The potential for ice jams and hydrological issues will need
to be monitored this weekend due to well above normal temperatures
and significant snow melt.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
As of 142 PM EST Tuesday...
KEY MESSAGE 1: The forecast remains on track for a light nuisance
snowfall event this afternoon through midnight as a wave of low
pressure tracks west to east along a slow moving warm front south of
the forecast area. Clouds and precipitation have kept temperatures
below freezing today for much of our southern zones and the southern
Adirondacks while northern locales have warmed into the mid-30s.
Despite the lack of cold air at the surface though, when
precipitation does arrive expect temperatures to wetbulb below
freezing supporting snow as the dominant ptype, albeit wet with
ratios generally 5-10:1. A general dusting to 2" is expected with
isolated amounts up to 4" on the higher terrain of eastern
Addison/Rutland counties. Steady snow ends quickly after midnight,
however forecast soundings continue to show abundant moisture
trapped below a building inversion while drier air moves into the
DGZ supporting the chance for patchy freezing drizzle on the tail
end of the precip. This will mainly be for mid-slope to higher
elevations before sunrise Wednesday where thereafter the entire
column drys out and surface temps warm above freezing. There could
be a few slick spots on higher elevation passes for the morning
commute.
KEY MESSAGE 2: We continue to monitor the evolution and track of
another system passing south of our forecast area Thursday through
Friday with increasing chances for mixed precipitation across the
region. The large-scale synoptic setup features high pressure
building south from James Bay driving low-level cold air across the
international border Thursday night while weak surface low pressure
and a modest shortwave trough move west to east from the Great Lakes
to near Cape Cod by Friday morning. The aforementioned warm front
from Tuesday continues its slow march northward on Wednesday with
925-850mb temps pushing above 0C and persisting over much of the
region through Friday. This scenario supports freezing rain as the
dominant ptype across most of the forecast area Thursday night
through Friday morning before surface temps warm back above
freezing. Where additional uncertainty in the forecast remains is
how far north precipitation makes it with medium-long range guidance
inconsistent from run to run. The AI versions of the GFS and ECWMF
seem to favor a more southern track with little QPF across our
northern zones, while their deterministic counter parts are a bit
farther north, along with the GEM. The driving shortwave is really
just getting it`s act together over the WY/CO border this afternoon,
so hopefully we`ll have a better idea of the track this time
tomorrow.
KEY MESSAGE 3: Surface low pressure will slide through or just north of
northern New York and Vermont on Saturday and Saturday night,
accompanied by strong warm air advection. This would allow surface
temperatures to soar into the 50s in the afternoon with nighttime
lows in the 30s and low 40s, 15-25 degrees above seasonable normals
for early March. A strong low level jet (850mb winds up to 65-70
knots) and weak cold frontal boundary move through Saturday
evening/night, producing gusty winds and precipitation. A deep
inversion will make precipitation type messy and potentially
difficult to forecast Saturday morning. Most models suggest a
portion of the arriving precipitation will be in the form of
freezing rain at the onset, particularly east of the Greens where
cold air looks to pool, then turning to all rain as surface
temperatures moderate and stronger forcing arrives with the
cold front later Saturday. We also continue to see some elevated
instability Saturday afternoon, which could result in rumbles
of thunder.
KEY MESSAGE 4: Temperatures are expected to remain 10-20 degrees above
seasonal normals through next midweek in persistent southwesterly
flow. Highs could reach as high as the upper 40s and 50s, while lows
will fall only into the lower and mid 30s. Given the duration of
warm temperatures, most of the snowpack below 1500 feet may be
melted by early next week, which, combined with some intervals of
precipitation, will cause rises on rivers and streams. These rises
could be enough to produce localized ice jams and other hydrological
issues. In addition, both the NAEFS and GEFS indicate Ausable, Mad,
and Otter Creek have a 40 to 60% probability of reaching minor flood
stage due to the combination of snow melt and QPF by early next
week. We will continue to monitor the potential for both ice jam and
main stem river flooding as we head toward the upcoming weekend.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Through 18Z Wednesday...Mostly VFR conditions prevail across
terminals this afternoon, with some MVFR ceilings currently at KRUT.
As the afternoon progresses, ceilings are expected to lower across,
with more widespread MVFR conditions by 00Z. Light snow will
overspread this evening, which will likely bring a period of IFR
visibilities to most terminals, other than KMSS and KEFK which are
too far north to receive snowfall today. The period of snow will
likely be brief, only lasting a few hours, however with increased
moisture some IFR ceilings may develop overnight. KSLK and KRUT
currently look to be the most likely sites to experience any IFR
clouds, but low MVFR ceilings and some reduced visibilities will
continue for most of the overnight. Some patchy freezing drizzle may
be possible tonight between 05Z and 10Z Wednesday, particularly at
KRUT, but confidence was too low to include in the forecast for now.
Winds will generally be southerly this afternoon, with some
localized gusts of 25 knots, especially at KBTV, before trending
light again overnight. Some LLWS will be possible this afternoon,
especially at mountain terminals, but it will be fairly short-lived.
Flight conditions will gradually improve towards the end of the
forecast period.
Outlook...
Wednesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Thursday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. NO SIG WX.
Thursday Night: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Chance RA,
Chance SN.
Friday: MVFR. Chance RA, Chance SN.
Friday Night: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Chance RA,
Chance FZRA.
Saturday: Mainly IFR, with areas MVFR possible. Likely RA.
Saturday Night: Mainly MVFR, with areas IFR possible. Chance RA.
Sunday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. NO SIG WX.
&&
.EQUIPMENT...
The KBTV ASOS has suffered a communications failure. The issue
has been diagnosed, but there is currently no estimated time of
return to service. The affected communications line is not
serviced by the NWS. Terminal Aerodrome Forecasts will continue,
but regular observations may not be available.
NOAA Weather Radio station WXM-44, transmitting from Mt.
Ascutney, Vermont, on frequency 162.475 MHz is non- operational
at this time. NWS technicians have diagnosed the problem, but
repairs will likely not be able to occur for quite some time due
to circumstances beyond our control. Therefore, the time of
return to service is currently unknown. The following NOAA
Weather Radio transmitters may be able to provide service during
this outage: WWG 50 from Burke Mtn, VT at 162.425 MHz and WNG
546 from Hanover, NH at 162.525 MHz.
The Colchester Reef meteorological station is out of service.
This site is not serviced by the NWS and there isn`t an
estimated return to service at present. Please contact us if you
observe winds significantly deviating from the recreational
forecast.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.
&&
$$
WHAT HAS CHANGED...Lahiff
DISCUSSION...Lahiff/Storm
AVIATION...Kremer
EQUIPMENT...NWS BTV
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