104
FXUS61 KBTV 191126
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
726 AM EDT Sun Jul 19 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
As of 255 AM EDT Sunday...

No significant changes.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
As of 255 AM EDT Sunday...

1. Dry through Monday then showers Tuesday into Wednesday.

2. Near normal temperatures expected for the second half of the
week into the weekend. No significant weather anticipated at
this time.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
As of 255 AM EDT Sunday...

KEY MESSAGE 1: A dry and seasonably cool stretch is in store
for the next couple days. Highs will be in the 70s to low 80s
and lows will be in the upper 40s and 50s for most places. An
occluding low will track well to the north Tuesday into
Wednesday, bringing several rounds of showers. The showers look
to begin sometime Tuesday and continue into the day on
Wednesday. Right now, the severe threat is low. There does not
look to be a well-defined boundary, instead several rounds of
showers with plenty of clouds look to move through. There is
very little time for solar heating and instability to form, and
the airmass will be relatively cool to start. With the low
tracking well to the north, the best synoptic forcing will be
well to the north, though there should be adequate wind shear.
The system does not look to provide much of a flooding threat
either. GEFS/EPS/CMCE combined ensemble probabilities of
receiving more than an inch of rain are only up to 30 percent.
While there will be areas of convective enhancement, the storms
will be quick-moving and there will be gaps between the showers.
PWATs should rise into the 1.5- 1.75 inch range but with the
expected setup, that should not pose too much of a problem.

KEY MESSAGE 2: Wednesday night through Sunday will feature
quieter weather as we close out the week. Upper level trough
will pull away from the region with precipitation coming to an
end Wednesday night. Surface high pressure will ridge over our
region Thursday and Thursday night. A low pressure system passes
well to our north Friday into Friday night, and a weak front
will bring our next chance for showers probably Friday night.
The weekend looks mainly dry at this point with near normal
temperatures.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Through 12Z Monday...Surface winds shift NW today at 10-15kt
with some gusts 20-25kt, likely highest at BTV. Shallow frontal
inversion may lead to some trapped MVFR ceilings before better
daytime mixing allows to end. Drying north winds will allow
these low clouds to dissipate by 12-13Z with VFR for the balance
of the TAF period on Sunday.

Outlook...

Monday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Monday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday: VFR. Likely SHRA, Slight chance TSRA.
Tuesday Night: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Definite
SHRA, Chance TSRA.
Wednesday: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Definite SHRA,
Chance TSRA.
Wednesday Night: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Slight
chance SHRA.
Thursday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. NO SIG WX.

&&

.MARINE...
Gusty northwest winds will continue for the rest of the night
and into the day today. They look to be sustained in the 15-30
KT range for the rest of the night, before decreasing into the
15-25 KT range during the day. Waves will range in the 1-3 FT
range for the rest of the night, before dropping into the 1-2
foot range for the day. Winds and waves come down significantly
this evening. Winds will drop below 10 KTs and waves will drop
below 1 foot.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$

WHAT HAS CHANGED...Myskowski
DISCUSSION...Neiles/Myskowski
AVIATION...Neiles
MARINE...NWS BTV