558
FXUS61 KBTV 160626
AFDBTV
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
226 AM EDT Tue Jun 16 2026
.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
As of 225 AM EDT Tuesday...
No significant changes to the forecast have been made at this time.
&&
.KEY MESSAGES...
As of 225 AM EDT Tuesday...
1. Scattered showers with a few thunderstorms possible Wednesday
afternoon and evening.
2. Widespread rainfall expected on Thursday.
3. Unsettled weather continues Friday into the weekend with a
bigger system expected Monday.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
As of 225 AM EDT Tuesday...
KEY MESSAGE 1: A shortwave trough will shift northeastward into New
York and Vermont Wednesday afternoon and will bring scattered to
numerous showers to New York with slightly less areal coverage
expected across Vermont. The track of the shortwave will be up
through the St. Lawrence Valley which does put us in an area of
favorable ascent. Instability will lackluster but enough instability
will br present to produce a few thunderstorms through the mid to
late afternoon hours. Current NBM probs highlight northern New York
the best which seems probably given the better forcing closer to the
mid-level forcing. Southerly winds will help usher in some warmer
air and moisture which will add to the thunderstorm potential but we
will be lacking the deep moisture needed for heavy rainfall on
Wednesday.
KEY MESSAGE 2: A strong and much more expansive system is expected to
bring widespread rainfall to the region on Thursday. An unseasonably
strong low pressure system for mid-June will move through the St.
Lawrence Valley and bring widespread rainfall to all of Vermont and
northern New York. A warm front on the leading edge of the low
pressure system will have strong ascent and bring a solid slug of
rainfall to the region with the majority of the rainfall expected
within a 4-8 hour window. With the low pressure system tracking
through the St. Lawrence Valley, the cold front attached to low will
not be too far behind and will act as a focal point for additional
showers and possibly a few rumbles of thunder as we head into the
afternoon. Instability will be lacking given the inability to have
any heating through the day due to rainfall and cloud cover with
models soundings showing moist adiabatic lapse rates and thin/skinny
CAPE profiles. While not favorable for stronger thunderstorms, the
soundings do show the potential for some heavy rainfall, especially
during the morning hours as a plume of 1.4 to 1.7 inch PWATS move
overhead. A strong mid-level jet will help push this system through
our forecast area quickly with rainfall tapering off during the
evening hours. Flooding is unlikely with this system given the fast
synoptic flow but we do have a few areas that were hit hard with
recent rainfall that will need to be watched just in case we higher
rainfall totals than currently expected. As it stands, we are
looking at a solid 0.5 to 1 inches of rain with a few areas possibly
seeing upwards of 2 inches. Anything above 2 inches seems very
unlikely given the lack of convective elements with this system.
The end of the week into the weekend will generally be nice days
across
KEY MESSAGE 3: The end of the week into the weekend will generally be
nice days across the region with a mix of clouds and sun. Given
broad cyclonic flow, a pocket of cool temperatures aloft, and the
potential for a few shortwaves to move across the region, it`s
feasible to think that we will see rounds of showers each day. These
showers will likely coincide with peak heating (3-8 PM) as that`s
when the best instability will be present. These showers will be
harmless and won`t produce much rainfall as the trough will keep any
deep layer moisture well to our south. On Monday, we will begin to
see the upper level flow become more zonal with a low pressure
system racing from west to east. Widespread rainfall is expected
once again with this system but the fast flow aloft should preclude
any flood chances.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Through 06Z Wednesday...VFR conditions are expected to prevail
through the forecast period. Light west north/northwest winds
becoming west/southwest this afternoon and will range from 5 to 10
knots except for some gusts up to 20 knots at KMSS. There is a
chance for some IFR fog to situate into KSLK between 10Z and 12Z
this morning, but most fog is not expected to impact our terminals.
Outlook...
Wednesday: VFR. Chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA.
Wednesday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance
SHRA.
Thursday: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. Windy with gusts
to 30 kt. Definite SHRA, Slight chance TSRA.
Thursday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance
SHRA.
Friday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA, Slight
chance TSRA.
Friday Night: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. Chance SHRA, Slight
chance TSRA.
Saturday: Mainly MVFR, with areas IFR possible. Likely SHRA,
Slight chance TSRA.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.
&&
$$
WHAT HAS CHANGED...Clay
DISCUSSION...Clay
AVIATION...Clay
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