739
FXUS61 KBTV 181757
AFDBTV
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
157 PM EDT Mon May 18 2026
.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
As of 627 AM EDT Monday...
A quick update to the forecast was made to better reflect the
current showers and thunderstorms moving across the area this
morning.
&&
.KEY MESSAGES...
As of 300 AM EDT Monday...
1. Unseasonably warm temperatures will continue for the first
half of the week, with high temperatures climbing into the upper
70s and 80s. Meanwhile, lake and river water temperatures
remain dangerously cold across the region, and breezes on Lake
Champlain may result in rough lake conditions.
2. Above normal temperatures are expected for the first half of
the week ahead.
3. Cooler and drier conditions are favored Thursday through
Friday before a transition back to seasonable temperatures and a
wetter pattern.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
As of 300 AM EDT Monday...
KEY MESSAGE 1: Building high pressure across the region will
allow for unseasonable warmth to continue for the first portion
of the week. A warm front lifting across the region this morning
may bring a few chances of showers this morning, but as the day
progresses drier conditions are expected to prevail. High
temperatures this afternoon are expected to climb into the upper
70s and 80s areawide. Despite the extremely warm air
temperatures, water temperatures are still quite frigid, so any
recreators should be sure to take the proper precautions,
including wearing a life jacket. In addition to the warm
temperatures, southerly winds will continue to be a bit breezy
throughout the day, especially in the Champlain Valley and along
the lake due to channeled flow. A Lake Wind Advisory is in
effect, with additional details in the Marine section below
Tuesday looks to be the hottest day of the week, with high
temperatures climbing into the 80s and near 90 under
southwesterly flow. These temperatures will be the warmest of
the year so far, especially after a cool start to the month, so
it is important to remember to stay safe in warmer temperatures
by staying hydrated and take frequent breaks if working outside.
Dewpoints will also be trending upwards going into Tuesday,
making it feel quite humid especially for this time of year. The
warmth and humidity will result in increasing instability,
which will support the development of showers and possible
thunderstorms for Tuesday, which could impact how warm
temperatures climb during the day Tuesday. A cold front is
expected to cross the region on Wednesday, which will impact how
warm we can get that day. At the moment, highs in the upper 60s
to mid 80s look likely, with central and southern Vermont
getting the warmest before the cold front and associated
precipitation arrive. In addition to warmth during the days, our
lows likely won`t fall below the upper 50s and 60s until the
cold front arrives, providing only some relief from heat
overnight.
KEY MESSAGE 2: The warm and humidity environment ahead of an
approaching cold front will allow for increased chances of
thunderstorm develop Tuesday and Wednesday. Latest CAM guidance
shows plenty of instability across the region, with surface CAPE
values anywhere from 500 to 1500 J/kg, with temperatures in the
80s to near 90 and dewpoints in the 60s. Forcing will be mainly
from an upper level weak wave and its potential interactions
with topography, while surface forcing looks minimal Tuesday
afternoon into the overnight period, and mid level lapse rates
don`t look overly impressive. The primary hazard with any strong
to severe storms that do develop look to be damaging winds. SPC
has placed much of the region a Slight Risk for severe weather,
so be sure to monitor the forecast especially if you have any
outdoor plans.
The main cold front looks to drop across the region on
Wednesday, bringing higher chances of precipitation with it. As
we get closer to the event, the timing of the cold front or
fronts should become more set. Should the front be delayed, the
potential for stronger storms would increase during the day on
Wednesday with more time to destabilize.
KEY MESSAGE 3: Temperatures trend much cooler Thursday behind
Wednesday`s front with northwest flow resulting in cold air
advection and a return to highs in the 50s to around 60 degrees.
Winds slow overnight with skies clearing; this may be a period
of concern for some frost outside the Champlain Valley with lows
in the mid/upper 30s for many locations, and low 40s for the
Champlain Valley. Conditions are favored to remain dry into
Friday with temperatures rising back to seasonal averages in the
mid/upper 60s to around 70 degrees.
Models begin to split on precipitation timing heading into the
weekend. Consensus maintains some chances of showers increasing
Saturday with more widespread rain Sunday. However, a number of
models are beginning to hold onto the ridge longer delaying
precipitation onset until the late weekend. Either way, a
pattern shift to deep return flow from the Gulf Coast
northeastward into the Northeast is appearing probable. This
flow pattern would result in multiple days of rain potential
once it sets up.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Through 18Z Tuesday...A low level jet will sweep through this
afternoon promoting some LLWS for MSS/SLK/PBG/EFK. Surface
winds at PBG could gust 20-30kts at times with favorable off-
lake, channeled flow while most other terminals see gusts around
20kts. Gusts drop by 00Z with clouds thickening early morning
as a diffluent flow pattern moves over the region with some
increasing elevated instability. A few showers will be possible
after 06Z, but widespread LLWS will return as the next lljet
moves into the region 00-12Z. Winds slacken overnight but pick
up again Tuesday morning.
Outlook...
Tuesday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA.
Wednesday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA.
Wednesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Thursday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Thursday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Friday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Friday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA.
Saturday: VFR. Chance SHRA.
&&
.MARINE...
As of 300 AM EDT Monday...
A Lake Wind Advisory is in effect for the Broad Waters of Lake
Champlain. Channel southerly flow will result in winds
increasing to 15 to 25 knots this afternoon, with even higher
gusts possible.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.
&&
$$
WHAT HAS CHANGED...Kremer
DISCUSSION...Boyd/Kremer
AVIATION...Neiles
MARINE...Kremer
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