087
FXUS61 KBTV 092325
AFDBTV
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
725 PM EDT Mon Mar 9 2026
.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
As of 334 PM EDT Monday...
A Flood Watch was issued for all of northern New York and
northern/central Vermont through Thursday afternoon. The Wind
Advisory that was in effect in the St. Lawrence Valley has been
canceled.
&&
.KEY MESSAGES...
As of 334 PM EDT Monday...
1. River ice break up is expected to occur over the next few
days. Ice jams and associated flooding are possible. Open water
flooding is also possible, mainly later Wednesday through Thursday.
2. Unseasonable warmth will persist through tomorrow with near
record daily high and low temperatures.
3. A strong low pressure system will create a temperature
battleground over the region on Wednesday, resulting in large
differences over short differences. Main precipitation hazard will
be potential for freezing rain, with greatest likelihood of travel
impacts over the northern St. Lawrence Valley Wednesday morning.
4. Much colder weather is expected on Thursday. Difficult
travel could result from sharply falling temperatures that
could freeze some standing water, along with gusty winds.
5. Seasonable temperatures are expected for the later half of
this week into the weekend, with an active weather pattern
continuing to bring several chances of precipitation to the
region.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
As of 254 PM EDT Monday...
KEY MESSAGE 1: A Flood Watch is now in effect until 2 pm Thursday, for
both potential ice jam flooding and open water flooding. Anyone who
lives, drives, or works along area rivers and streams should remain
alert for rapidly changing water levels through mid week.
We`ve seen a bit of a lull in river conditions so far today as
runoff slowed due to colder temperatures and less snowmelt
overnight. However, with temperatures well into the 50s and even
close to 60F this afternoon, this downward trend will soon reverse,
with river levels starting to rise again by this evening. We`ll
remain mild overnight and will warm back into the 50s and 60s on
Tuesday, so snowmelt will continue pretty much unabated over the
next 24-36 hours. The resultant river rises are pretty much certain
to cause river ice to break up, especially since we already saw
several ice jams on Sunday. While we can predict the conditions that
cause ice jams fairly readily, when or where jams will specifically
form and how significant any flooding will be are nearly impossible
to pinpoint. That being said, those stretches that currently have
ice jams in place, including along the Mad River, the Ausable River,
and the Missisquoi River, will be particularly susceptible to
additional flooding.
As we head into the middle of the week, these snowmelt-induced river
rises will be exacerbated by widespread rain which is expected to
occur Wednesday into Thursday. The rain will quickly turn over to
snow from west to east on Thursday as a cold front crosses the
region. Snowmelt will likewise end as temperatures drop back below
freezing. Total liquid precipitation amounts are expected to range
from around 0.50 inch in the lower CT River Valley to around 1.25
inches across much of northern New York, though some of that may
well fall as frozen precipitation. Still, the rain combined with up
to an additional 2-3 inches of snowmelt will likely be enough to
flush out most of the ice from area rivers. However, there are
indications that some rivers could rise above flood stage even once
cleared of ice due to the combined runoff from rain and snowmelt.
Otter Creek and the Ausable, Winooski, Lamoille, and Mad Rivers have
the highest chances of exceeding flood stage, though really any
river can`t be ruled out at this point. Regardless, if open water
flooding were to occur, the most likely crest time would be sometime
Thursday. And remember, this is only applicable on rivers that
completely flush out their ice.
Whether it`s ice jam flooding or open water flooding, we strongly
urge everyone to remain cautious along area waterways. River ice can
break up very suddenly, and water can rise rapidly if jams do occur.
River ice is very unstable and it is absolutely not safe to approach
ice jams or walk on the ice. And even if rivers and streams remain
within their banks, the water will be running high and fast and it
will be very cold, so please stay well away from river banks.
KEY MESSAGE 2: It has been a warm and breezy day as expected with
temperatures in the upper 50s to mid 60s this afternoon. However,
persistent, thicker high clouds in northern New York and northern
portions of Vermont have limited insolation/sunshine. The reduced
solar radiation may have contributed to slightly less steep surface
lapse rates and potential for higher magnitude gusts, and the Wind
Advisory that had been in effect was canceled. The gusty
south/southwest winds have still helped lower humidity to the point
that if we had dry fuels, fire weather would be a concern as
relative humidities are 20 to 30% this afternoon in much of the
region.
Given how dry the air is, where winds die off temperatures tonight
will fall quite a bit, with sub-freezing values possible in
sheltered portions of the Adirondacks and eastern Vermont.
Otherwise, continued thawing will persist and with clear skies,
temperatures will quickly rise tomorrow back into the 50s and
60s by afternoon. Still expecting winds to shift fairly abruptly
to northerly as a cold front slips southward during the day;
north of the front we`ll see temperature stabilize or even fall
during the afternoon. There is some uncertainty on the
timing/location of this wind shift such that high temperatures
are a bit tricky. Think southern portions of Vermont will easily
be about as warm as today, while most other areas could be up to
several degrees cooler. That being said, record high
temperatures for the day at long term observing sites are
several degrees lower than they were today, so record highs
will be possible (see Climate section for details).
KEY MESSAGE 3: Of primary concern for winter weather on Wednesday will
be strong cold air drainage from southern Canada, with a very cold,
shallow air mass being drawn down our valleys tomorrow night. Think
the ensemble guidance that goes into our default model blend is a
little misleading at this time with regards to temperatures, so we
have heavily used some of the more skillful, higher
resolution/mesoscale data for the forecast at this time. This
results in much lower temperatures in some areas, especially valleys
in northern New York, the northern Champlain Valley, and east of the
Green Mountains. Those eastern areas in particular are much colder
during the day as it will be hard to dislodge the cold air with
heavily inverted temperatures expected. Freezing rain accumulations
are complicated with antecedent warmth and daytime heating
making it harder for ice to accumulate, particularly light
precipitation and after sunrise. Therefore, the highest
confidence in impactful freezing rain is in northernmost
portions of New York.
Among the 12Z GEFS, the storm track looks pretty well
clustered near or just north of the International Border Wednesday
night, which was a shift northward from the 00Z guidance. By
comparison, the 12Z ENS members shifted less but trended deeper
with low pressure. A track farther north/west will tend to
limit potential for widespread heavy rain, and erode the shallow
cold air a bit faster in northern New York, but a stronger
system could help maintain the cold air damming/northeasterly
flow.
KEY MESSAGE 4: While there are typical timing differences for
the passage of a strong cold front, there appears to be a
consensus that temperatures will tumble Thursday morning from
west to east. Temperatures falling below freezing, especially in
higher elevations, will lead to standing water to freeze. Given
widespread rain Wednesday night and the potential for quickly
falling temperatures, think that gusty westerly winds 30 to 40
MPH will not prevent potential travel concerns for black ice
concurrent with the flood concerns discussed in Key Message 1.
At this time precipitation, which would be in the form of snow,
looks minimal with unblocked flow and a lot of dry air directly
behind the front.
KEY MESSAGE 5: Seasonable temperatures and an active weather
pattern are expected across the region late this week into the
weekend. After the warmth earlier in the week, high temperatures
for Friday into the weekend will be in the upper 30s and low
40s, which is more typical for this time of year. A clipper
system looks to bring widespread light snowfall late Friday into
Saturday, especially across the Adirondacks, with overnight low
temperatures dropping into the teens and 20s areawide. After
the clipper system exits on Saturday, another system looks to
impact the region on Sunday into the beginning of next week,
with the associated warm front lifting across the reign on
Sunday and then the trailing cold front pushing across late
Sunday into Monday. At this time period, there is still plenty
of uncertainty regarding this system, especially in regards to
precipitation type, with more details expected as we get closer.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Through 00Z Wednesday...VFR conditions prevail. South to
southwest winds are beginning to slow, but a few reports with
gusts 12-17 knots and gusts around 20-27 knots are still
occurring at KBTV and KMSS. LLWS remains with west-southwest
winds at 35-45 knots, and it will diminish between 03z-08z. A
front will move north to south between 12z and 20z, with a fast
switch to north winds. Moisture will overrun the boundary after
21z, with some showers or drizzle approaching KMSS or KSLK near
or after 00z Wednesday. So ceilings will be trending towards
2500-5000 ft agl towards the end of the next 24 hours.
Outlook...
Tuesday Night: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. Chance SHRA,
Definite FZRA.
Wednesday: Mainly MVFR, with areas IFR possible. Definite SHRA,
Definite FZRA.
Wednesday Night: Mainly MVFR, with areas IFR possible. Windy with
gusts to 30 kt. Definite SHRA.
Thursday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Windy with gusts
to 30 kt. Chance RA, Slight chance SN.
Thursday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Friday: VFR. Chance RA, Chance SN.
Friday Night: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Likely SN.
Saturday: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. Slight chance SN.
&&
.CLIMATE...
Record High Maximum temperatures are possible Tuesday. As of
now, this is favored at Montpelier (MPV) where the current
forecast matches the daily record:
MPV: 60/2016
&&
.EQUIPMENT...
NOAA Weather Radio station WXM-44, transmitting from Mt.
Ascutney, Vermont, on frequency 162.475 MHz is non-operational
at this time. NWS technicians plan to restore its functionality
tomorrow, March 10th. The following NOAA Weather Radio
transmitters may be able to provide service during the outage:
WWG 50 from Burke Mtn, VT at 162.425 MHz and WNG 546 from
Hanover, NH at 162.525 MHz.
The Colchester Reef meteorological station is out of service.
This site is not serviced by the NWS and there isn`t an
estimated return to service at present. Please contact us if you
observe winds significantly deviating from the recreational
forecast.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...Flood Watch through Thursday afternoon for VTZ001>011-016>021.
NY...Flood Watch through Thursday afternoon for NYZ026>031-034-035-
087.
&&
$$
WHAT HAS CHANGED...Kutikoff
DISCUSSION...Hastings/Kremer/Kutikoff
AVIATION...Haynes
CLIMATE...NWS BTV
EQUIPMENT...NWS BTV
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