932
FXUS61 KBTV 250013
AFDBTV
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
813 PM EDT Tue Mar 24 2026
.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
As of 308 PM EDT Tuesday...
Winds and temperatures trended upward somewhat on Thursday.
&&
.KEY MESSAGES...
As of 308 PM EDT Tuesday...
1. Isolated to scattered snow showers tonight, primarily in
higher terrain, then additional, spotty light precipitation
Wednesday night trending towards rain.
2. Sharp river rises expected Thursday night into Friday in
response to a brief higher elevation thaw and widespread rain.
3. Unseasonably cold start to the weekend, trending back to
near normal for next week with unsettled conditions continuing.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
As of 308 PM EDT Tuesday...
KEY MESSAGE 1: A decaying cold front will amble eastward into
northern New York and Vermont tonight. Chances of snow showers
generally are greatest from 7 PM to 9 PM in New York and between
9 PM and midnight in Vermont. While the upper level dynamics
are impressive with both water vapor imagery and progged winds
showing a good setup for upper level divergence ahead of the
front, moisture will be lacking especially without a boost of
substantial surface convergence. A very minor wind shift from
southwesterly to westerly will occur with the passage of the
front with only neutral thickness advection as colder air
largely remains displaced well to our north overnight into
Wednesday. A narrow zone of deep moisture will be associated
with the front, and then lingering snow showers should have
shallow cloud tops still sufficiently cold to saturate the snow
growth zone, such that some isolated snow showers will persist
towards daybreak, especially in the western Adirondacks and near
the spine of the Green Mountains. The westerly 925-850 millibar
flow will lead to some downsloping, although again with the
limited cold air advection do not expect winds to gust
significantly, mainly in the 25 to 30 MPH range at greatest.
Most of tomorrow will be dry and seasonable, with temperatures
ranging from the mid 30 to mid 40s for most locations during the
afternoon.
While there are no significant weather concerns with the next,
light precipitation event tomorrow night, there are some
localized hazards to note. Both the HRRR explicit precipitation
type and the dominant precipitation type output from the GFS
show at least light/transient freezing rain across the St.
Lawrence Valley and pockets of far northeastern Vermont.
Measurable freezing rain is unlikely at this time, with greatest
chance of a glaze of ice as often the case near Massena, New
York. Some light snow is also possible at the onset of
precipitation, especially in north central/eastern Vermont and
the Adirondacks, before precipitation type changes to light rain
during the nighttime hours; probability of weather type quickly
trends to liquid after midnight with push of southerly flow.
Due to combination of light amounts of precipitation and this
warmup, hazardous morning travel Thursday morning is unlikely.
KEY MESSAGE 2: Thursday will be a warmer and breezy day.
Southerly flow will likely result in channeled, locally gusty
winds. Wind gusts in the 30 to 35 MPH range are favored at this
time with lack of a strong pressure gradient. It is questionable
how widespread breezy conditions will be with coverage of
steady rain uncertain associated a fast moving shortwave
embedded in the westerly flow aloft. Some model guidance keeps
it farther north such that much of the daytime hours on Thursday
are dry. The consensus idea is higher chances of rain as you go
northward, and the stability associated with the rain will
limit breeziness. Any sunshine will also help boost
temperatures, which are still expected to climb into the 40s and
50s through the day. 925 millibar temperatures are progged to
rise above the 90th percentile with values near 50 degrees such
that any extended dry periods and associated mixing will lead to
valley temperatures approaching 60.
The combination of a relatively brief but substantial thaw with
higher elevations becoming mild, breezy, and wet will lead to
significant snowmelt (potential for an inch or greater liquid
equivalent snow) Thursday through Thursday night. The
combination of widespread rainfall near 0.5" and this type of
snowmelt will lead to sharp river rises late Thursday into
Friday morning, but with low within banks, with a low chance of
action stage at various rivers including the Lamoille and
Winooski. The only mainstem river forecast we continue to
highlight with somewhat elevated chance of reaching flood stage
(greater than 10% but less than 30% per GEFS) is the East Branch
Ausable River. The latest data suggests most likely snowmelt in
the Ausable Basin of just over a 0.5" of SWE with about 0.75"
of rainfall. Some of the warmer and breezier scenarios suggest
efficient snowmelt that could exceed 1" of SWE specifically in
this basin, although there is a lot of spread in temperatures
through the period.
Regardless of maximum temperatures, they will fall quickly
Friday morning putting an end to the thaw as a sharp cold front
passes through. Light snow accumulations are possible, although
the fast departure of the low pressure system and limited
cyclonic flow behind the front points to limited upslope
potential and only brief window where moisture and thermal
profiles support snow. An early look at Froude numbers suggests
ideal blocked northwest flow immediately behind the front for
the western slopes, but temperatures may be too slow too cool
given how warm it will be out ahead of the front for any
meaningful accumulations outside of the mountains.
KEY MESSAGE 3: Behind the end of week cold front, temperatures
will be 10-15 degrees below normal for the weekend. Temperatures
will fall Friday night into the single digits to low teens for
overnight lows. Some locations in the Adirondacks and Northeast
Kingdom may approach 0 degrees. On Saturday, temperatures will
struggle to reach the freezing mark with strong northwest caa,
with highs in the mid to upper 20s across northern New York and
east o the Greens, and low 30s in the Champlain Valley and
southern Vermont. With the northwest caa, winds will be breezy
on Saturday with winds around 10 mph, with occasional gusts
15-20 mph, mainly across northern New York and the higher
terrain. Thankfully, this deep unseasonable cold will be short
lived with a trend back to normal by Monday as we will
transition to more zonal flow. Highs will rise towards the low
to mid 40s on Monday with perhaps a few places reaching 50 in
southern Vermont. This warm up with be accompanied by a
shortwave which could bring some shower chances Monday into
Tuesday. Models remain split both in timing and location. The
GFS depicts a more moist system overhead of the area with
mountain snow and valley rains, whereas the EURO model depicts a
more northerly tracked, drier system with less precipitation.
All in all, confidence is increasing in a blustery Monday with a
tightening pressure and thermal gradient across the region as
the shortwave passes through. DESI NBM probabilities depict a
30-50% chance for 25 mph wind gusts for the south to north
oriented valleys and higher terrain. Given the continued
uncertainty have continued with the current WPC forecast for the
period.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Through 00Z Thursday...Winds will continue to be mainly
westerly overnight with potential gusts 20-25 kts at PBG from
downsloping this evening. A weak trough will bring a few chances
for light and brief snow showers this evening mainly thru 04Z.
Confidence remains low on overall coverage of the showers and
whether terminals will be impacted, and thus have used PROB30
groups where confidence is higher than other terminals. A
limiting factor will be dry surface air which could lead to more
virga. Any showers could have the potential to briefly reduce
visibilities to 4SM, outside of SLK. SLK will have the best
chances for any prevailing showers and visibilities due to
increased terrain influences. The trough looks to wash out
across the Adirondacks and central Greens which could keep some
low level moisture around at SLK/EFK/MPV into tomorrow morning
with prolonged chances for light snow and mist. As the trough
swings through the areas from west to east, ceilings will trend
towards 3000-5000ft agl overnight. Ceilings may further lower to
MVFR at SLK/EFK/MPV intermittently overnight. More prevailing
MVFR could be possible by Wed morning as the boundary washes out
at all sites for a brief few hours, before clouds trend towards
scattered by 18Z.
Outlook...
Wednesday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance RA,
Chance FZRA, Chance SN.
Thursday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Likely RA.
Thursday Night: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Definite
RA, Chance SHRA, Chance SHSN.
Friday: VFR. Slight chance SHSN.
Friday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Saturday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Saturday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight
chance SN.
Sunday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
&&
.EQUIPMENT...
The NOAA Weather Radio Transmitter on Mt. Mansfield is
experiencing an outage. We`re working to determine the cause and
do not have an estimated return to service at this time.
In Franklin County, New York, the Parishville transmitter may
be used as an alternative. For the southern Champlain Valley,
Grandpa`s Knob may be used as an alternative. For Lamoille and
Washington Counties in Vermont, the Burke transmitter may be
used as an alternative. For additional information on NOAA
Weather Radio, visit weather.gov/nwr.
The Colchester Reef meteorological station is out of service.
This site is not serviced by the NWS and there isn`t an
estimated return to service at present. Please contact us if you
observe winds significantly deviating from the recreational
forecast.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.
&&
$$
WHAT HAS CHANGED...Kutikoff
DISCUSSION...Danzig/Kutikoff
AVIATION...Neiles
EQUIPMENT...NWS BTV
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