969
FXUS61 KBTV 040640
AFDBTV
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
140 AM EST Wed Feb 4 2026
.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
As of 136 AM EST Wednesday...
While very cold temperatures and low wind chills are still
expected this weekend, forecast values are trending less extreme
than previously forecast.
&&
.KEY MESSAGES...
As of 136 AM EST Wednesday...
1. Light snowfall this morning, but with minimal road impacts.
2. Hazardous travel is possible late Friday and Friday night
due to snow showers spreading over the region.
3. Dangerous cold with wind chills of 20 to 30 below zero likely
over the weekend.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
As of 136 AM EST Wednesday...
KEY MESSAGE 1: Early morning GOES-19 IR imagery reveals well the
compact mid-level vort progressing ewd along the International
Border of NY. This system will continue slowly ewd and cross nrn VT
between 12-15Z. With PW values of only 0.15-0.20" across the region,
feature has a skeletal appearance in IR imagery due to limited
moisture availability. Dynamical forcing remains moderately strong
and will be sufficient to produce continued light snowfall across
nrn NY and central/nrn VT through mid-morning (PoPs 60-80% for most
nrn areas). Snowfall amounts will generally range from a coating to
1", except locally 1-2" across Franklin VT county and into the far
nrn Greens. With a fluffy character to the snowfall and SLRs around
20:1, impacts for this morning`s commute should be minor. Skies will
trend partly sunny this afternoon once mid-level system translates
ewd into NH/ME. Winds will trend light NW, but with little overall
change in low-level air mass. Looking for afternoon highs similar to
yesterday...generally in the low-mid 20s.
KEY MESSAGE 2: Scattered to numerous show showers are expected to
spread over the region from west to east late Friday and Friday
night as a clipper low pressure system and its associated upper
trough scoot across northern New England. A strong cold front will
be dragged along in the clipper`s wake, and this will help to serve
as a focus for snow shower activity. Timing for this feature has
slowed about 6 hours compared to this time yesterday, so while a few
scattered showers will be possible during the daylight hours Friday
afternoon, the bulk will occur Friday night into Saturday morning.
There will be ample frontogenetical forcing with this front, but
moisture will be scarce (PWATs only 0.25 inch). This along with the
unfavorable timing of the frontal passage will greatly limit
available instability as well. So while there could be a few heavier
showers as the front moves through, don`t anticipate true squalls at
this point. Flow turns around to the west/northwest behind the
front, so some wrap around showers may persist into Saturday
afternoon in the favored upslope areas of the northern
Adirondacks/Greens. Snow/liquid ratios will be high, resulting in a
fairly light and fluffy snow. Guidance still points at most places
seeing 2 inches or less, with perhaps 2-4 inches along the spine of
the northern Greens and portions of the western Adirondacks.
KEY MESSAGE 3: The aforementioned cold front will usher in a very cold
and dry airmass for the weekend. With the slower timing, northern NY
will see temperatures fall sharply late Friday night into Saturday
morning. Meanwhile, much of VT, particularly east of the Greens,
will likely hold steady or only cool slightly into the teens by
Saturday morning, then fall through the single digits Saturday
afternoon. Latest guidance has backed off on the extreme cold of
this incoming airmass, with 850mb temperatures now expected to be
closer to -25C rather than -30C. Winds have also backed off just a
bit as well, though it will still be pretty breezy Saturday into
Saturday night when gusts around 30 mph possible. The pressure
gradient will relax on Sunday as ridging noses into New England,
allowing gusts to slacken though sustained winds will remain 5-10
mph. With all this, it`s still going to be dangerously cold; note
the 01z NBM shows 50-85% chance of Saturday`s highs remaining below
+5F west of the Champlain Valley. This expands across the vast
majority of our northern and central regions on Sunday. Saturday and
Sunday night lows, meanwhile, will be well below zero, with many
locations dropping into the -10 to -20F range. Given this, it won`t
take much wind for wind chills to reach dangerous levels; expect
widespread -10F to -20F during the day Saturday and Sunday, with -
20F to -30F likely Saturday night into Sunday morning. Even though
these wind chills/cold aren`t quite as extreme as what we were
looking at this time yesterday, it will still be very dangerous for
anyone outdoors, especially if they are not dressed for the cold.
We`ll continue to refine the forecast going forward, but at this
point, anticipate that at least Cold Weather Advisories will be
needed across the entire area this weekend. Anyone with outdoor
plans should keep a close eye on future forecasts.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Through 06Z Wednesday...A mix of MVFR/VFR conditions prevails
at the start of this TAF period, but expect ceilings to lower to
MVFR areawide as snow showers spread from west to east through
the early morning hours. Snow will be light and will move
through quickly, generally affecting the terminals for 3-6
hours, ending at all sites by 15z. KMSS/KSLK/KEFK have the best
chances for IFR visibility, but elsewhere anticipate
visibilities to remain 3-5SM in showers. Once these exit to the
east, ceilings will still remain 1500-2500 ft, with only KRUT to
remain VFR and snow-free, and these trends will continue
through the remainder of the TAF period. Winds will be light and
variable through early Wednesday morning, trending toward W/NW
at 4-9kt after 13z.
Outlook...
Thursday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Thursday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Friday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHSN.
Friday Night: Mainly MVFR and IFR, with local VFR possible.
Definite SN, Likely SHSN.
Saturday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHSN.
Saturday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Sunday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
&&
.EQUIPMENT...
NOAA Weather Radio station WXM-44, transmitting from Mt.
Ascutney, Vermont, on frequency 162.475 MHz is non- operational
at this time. NWS technicians have diagnosed the problem, but
repairs will likely not be able to occur for quite some time due
to circumstances beyond our control. Therefore, the time of
return to service is currently unknown. The following NOAA
Weather Radio transmitters may be able to provide service during
this outage: WWG 50 from Burke Mtn, VT at 162.425 MHz and WNG
546 from Hanover, NH at 162.525 MHz.
The Colchester Reef meteorological station is out of service.
This site is not serviced by the NWS and there isn`t an
estimated return to service at present. Use extra caution when
navigating the broad waters of Lake Champlain. Please contact us
if you observe winds significantly deviating from the
recreational forecast.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.
&&
$$
WHAT HAS CHANGED...Banacos
DISCUSSION...Hastings/Banacos
AVIATION...Hastings
EQUIPMENT...NWS BTV
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