762
FXUS61 KBTV 132100
AFDBTV
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
500 PM EDT Fri Mar 13 2026
.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
As of 458 PM EDT Friday...
No significant changes were made with this forecast package.
&&
.KEY MESSAGES...
As of 458 PM EDT Friday...
1. A highly elevation dependent snowfall develops by this
evening with areas of slick travel expected overnight, along
with periods of gusty winds and lingering upslope snow showers
on Saturday.
2. Multifaceted storm system expected to impact the region
Sunday and Monday.
3. Cooler and unsettled weather expected through late next week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
As of 458 PM EDT Friday...
KEY MESSAGE 1: A Winter Weather Advisory continues for a highly
elevation dependent snowfall for the Adirondacks and portions
of the southern Greens, with accumulations ranging from a
dusting to 1 inch acrs the CPV/lower CT River to 6 to 10 inches
at summit level by Sat evening.
GOES-19 water vapor indicates dynamic clipper system over the
central Great Lakes this aftn with initial waa lift/moisture and
associated precip band angling into western/central NY attm.
Sfc analysis places 987mb low pres over northern MI, with
greatest 3 hr pres falls toward the eastern Great Lakes/SLV. Sfc
low pres wl quickly track along the International Border late
tonight into Saturday with several rounds of snow showers
anticipated. First round this evening wl be associated with
moderately strong 850 to 700mb waa lift/moisture moving from
southwest to northeast. A burst of moderate snow is likely btwn
22z-04z acrs our region with a quick dusting to 2 or 3 inches
expected, highest over the summits of northern NY and VT. Good
news the heaviest period of snowfall should occur after the
Friday evening commute. Brief mid lvl dry slot angles toward our
central/southern cwa around midnight, with decreasing areal
coverage of snow shower activity anticipated. A secondary band
of enhanced 850 to 700mb fgen forcing develops ahead of
dampening but potent 5h s/w energy, along with a pocket of weak
instability. The locally developed snow squall parameter
indicates values in the 2 to 5 range over southern VT,
suggesting some convective snow showers with fropa on early Sat
morning.
Meanwhile, as sfc low pres tracks to our east by midday Saturday,
favorable upslope 925mb to 850mb flow develops, along with better
925mb to 500mb rh progs >80% behind the dry slot with trrn enhanced
snow showers redeveloping. As bl temps warm into the mid/upper 30s
on Saturday aftn, the best potential for accumulating snowfall wl be
above 1800 feet on Saturday aftn. However, with bl heating,
instability redevelops with sfc based cape values in the 40 to 120
J/kg range with the snow squall parameter values in the 2 to 5 range
again, especially central/northern VT, including the NEK. Expecting
disorganized convective snow showers with the potential for a few
embedded heavier snow squalls, with some graupel/snow pellets
possible on Sat aftn. Within the heavier cores, a quick coating
could occur, briefing resulting in very localized hazardous travel.
Given strengthening 925mb to 850mb southwest jet tonight and warming
bl temps above 32F on Saturday, expected a sharp elevation depend
snowfall. Amounts range from a dusting to an inch or so here in the
CPV and Lower CT River Valley to 2 to 4 inches SLV and parts of the
NEK with 6 to 10 inches for the summits of the northern Dacks and
central/northern Greens by Sat evening. No expansion of the advisory
is necessary as impacts wl be mostly for slick travel tonight into
Saturday morning, before warming temps into the 30s and high mid
March sun angle quickly melts any snow on road surfaces.
Several intervals of gusty winds are anticipated over the next 12 to
36 hours acrs portions of our cwa. First is tonight associated with
developing south/southeast 925mb to 850mb jet of 35 to 50 knots,
which given inversion height, should produce localized gusts in the
30 to 40 mph range acrs the northern CPV and parts of western
slopes. Next window for gusty winds wl be on the backside associated
with west/northwest 850mb jet of 40 to 45 knots and deeper mixing
profiles under llvl caa. This supports localized gusts 35 to 40 mph
acrs northern/eastern Dacks and east side of the Greens and portions
of the NEK of VT late Sat into Sat evening.
Sunday is quiet with near normal temps and maybe a few lingering mtn
flurries. Winds and moisture increase on Sunday night ahead of our
next powerful storm system for early next week. Given low level cold
air trapped east of the Greens, a period of light freezing rain is
possible on Sunday night, along with developing gusty ridgetop winds
of 45 to 60 knots.
KEY MESSAGE 2: A warm front will lift north across the region on Sunday
with an impressive surge of warm air expected to situate across
Vermont and northern New York on Monday. Models continue to back off
on precipitation chances associated with the warm front as PWATS of
0.30" or less will be in place ahead of the front. The NAM and GFS
continue to show a decent areas of FGEN associated with the leading
edge of the warm front, but the higher PWAT airmass will lag behind
the frontal boundary. There is still chance we could see some mixed
precipitation right along the leading edge of the warm front but
given latest model trends, that probability is now only upwards of
20%.
There is some disagreement amongst deterministic guidance regarding
the dry slot that develops in the wake of the warm front late Sunday
into Monday with some guidance showing some shower activity while
others remain much drier. The reason for the disagreement is a low
amplitude shortwave that is expected to move north towards New
England within the meridional upper level flow. The lower res global
guidance has a hard time depicting these smaller scale features and
each run this shortwave bounces further west or east. Once this
feature develops, likely on Sunday, models will have a much better
idea on the overall track of this feature and the orientation of the
longwave pattern. The reason this could have a sizable impact on
the forecast is that the showers, or lack thereof, could impact the
overall warming on Monday. Right now, it`s looking likely we warm
into the upper 50s to mid 60s but would likely be significantly less
if we have to contend with showers. More on this in a minute.
Within the dry sector or Monday, a very strong (60+ knots) low level
jet is expected to set up across the region. It`s very difficult to
determine how much, if any, of this low level jet is able to mix
down to the surface as the warm front from Sunday will likely set up
a huge surface based inversion. Now, as mentioned earlier, if we are
able to warm into the 60s, we could see mixing up to about 900 mb
which would be supportive of some of these stronger winds making it
down to the surface with 45-50 mph winds not out of the question. If
we are cooler, there will be less mixing and less winds. It`s a very
challenging forecast as the strongest winds remain just off the
surface and if we can tap into them at all.
A cold front will sweep through the region Monday night through
Tuesday morning with a period of moderate to heavy rain possible
along the leading edge of the cold front. A sharp thermal gradient
(30+ degrees F) will be seen just ahead and behind of the cold front
which will result in high FGEN values. CAPE will be limited to maybe
100-200 J/kg but the forcing is likely high enough that a few
rumbles of thunder cannot be ruled out. The latest ensemble blends
show about 0.5 to 1 inch of snow across much of our forecast area.
With river flows already on the high side and ice on some areal
rivers, some isolated flooding cannot be ruled out at this time.
KEY MESSAGE 3: Following the cold front on Monday and Tuesday, much
cooler and seasonal air is expected back across the North Country
and northern New York. A deep upper level trough will settle into
the region late Tuesday and begin to lift north on Thursday. High
temperatures will struggle to climb into the low to mid 30s on
Tuesday and Wednesday with temperatures moderating back to normal
values on Thursday once the trough begins to lift north. With steep
lapse rates in place in response to the very cold air aloft, chance
for occasional snow showers with low amplitude shortwave energy will
remain possible but no significant weather is expected through the
end of the week.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Through 18Z Saturday...VFR conditions will persist through mid-
afternoon at all terminals. Snow arrives from west to east in
the late afternoon and evening. It should reach MSS, SLK and RUT
by around 5-6 PM, BTV, PBG and MPV between 7-9 PM, and EFK
around 9-10 PM. Frequent IFR visibility is expected through the
evening. The snow showers will gradually become lighter and more
scattered after midnight, and any consistent IFR visibility
should be done. A few on and off snow showers will continue
through the rest of the night and for much of tomorrow, with
SLK, MSS and EFK seeing the greatest frequency of snow showers.
Periods of IFR and MVFR visibility should occur during this
time, though a majority of the time conditions should be VFR.
Snow showers end tomorrow afternoon. Winds will increase this
afternoon and gust between 10-25 KTs for m20ost places this
evening and tonight, though gusts up to 30 KTs are possible at
BTV and PBG. Winds decrease in the later part of the night and
tomorrow morning. Winds will be mostly southerly for the first
part of the night, before becoming more southwesterly and
westerly as they diminish. They become northwesterly and
increase again tomorrow afternoon.
Outlook...
Saturday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Windy with
gusts to 30 kt. NO SIG WX.
Sunday: VFR. Chance SN, Chance RA.
Sunday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Strong winds
with gusts to 40 kt. Chance RA, Chance FZRA.
Monday: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Strong winds with
gusts to 40 kt. Definite RA, Slight chance FZRA.
Monday Night: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Strong winds
with gusts to 40 kt. Definite SHRA, Chance SHSN.
Tuesday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Windy with gusts
to 30 kt. Chance RA, Slight chance SN.
Tuesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
&&
.EQUIPMENT...
The Colchester Reef meteorological station is out of service.
This site is not serviced by the NWS and there isn`t an
estimated return to service at present. Please contact us if you
observe winds significantly deviating from the recreational
forecast.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...Winter Weather Advisory until 2 PM EDT Saturday for VTZ019-020.
NY...Winter Weather Advisory until 2 PM EDT Saturday for NYZ029-030-
034.
&&
$$
WHAT HAS CHANGED...Taber
DISCUSSION...Clay/Taber
AVIATION...Myskowski
EQUIPMENT...NWS BTV
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