241
FXUS61 KBTV 010550
AFDBTV
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
150 AM EDT Mon Jun 1 2026
.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
As of 732 PM EDT Sunday...
Showers and thunderstorms are shifting southeastwards. We`ve
received numerous small hail reports, and a few localized wind
gusts of 35-50 mph have taken place near the town of Saranac and
over Diamond Island. Activity will wind down with the loss of
daytime heating. Tweaked PoPs and sky cover based on the latest
trends.
&&
.KEY MESSAGES...
As of 223 PM EDT Sunday...
1. Showers will continue through this afternoon and evening,
with drier conditions expected heading into the week ahead.
2. Drier weather along with a warming trend is expected for the
latter half of next week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
As of 223 PM EDT Sunday...
KEY MESSAGE 1: A shortwave pushing through the region will
continue to bring additional showers this afternoon and evening.
With cold air aloft and diurnal heating, a few rumbles of
thunder will be possible this afternoon as well as the potential
for some pea-sized hail within any stronger showers.
Precipitation amounts throughout the day are expected to remain
fairly light, with a few tenths of an inch possible for most
locations. Overnight lows will be on the cool side once again,
with temperatures dropping into the upper 30s to near 50. With
warmer temperatures and lingering clouds, frost is not expected
overnight. Additional isolated shower chances will be possible
throughout the day Monday, driven by steep lapse rates and
diurnal heating. The overall coverage is expected to be fairly
limited during the day tomorrow, with very little rainfall
accumulation expected. Temperatures during the day tomorrow will
be more seasonable in comparison to the last few days, with
high temperatures in the 60s to low 70s. Another cool night will
be possible Monday night, which may lead to some additional
frost concerns, especially in the Adirondacks and the Northeast
Kingdom. Conditions are expected to trend drier and more
seasonable as the week progresses as ridging slowly begins to
build into the region.
KEY MESSAGE 2: High pressure builds across the Northeast CONUS
on Wednesday and lingers through at least Friday morning. The
result will be a few dry days and warming temperatures. A
coastal low pressure system will develop off the Carolina coast
and lift northeastward through this period as well, but the
ridge will keep it shunted well to our south and east.
Temperatures will warm into the mid 70s to mid 80s by Thursday,
continuing into Friday. There are some indications that the
wider valleys, including the Champlain and lower CT Valleys,
could see highs rise into the upper 80s, but don`t anticipate
any 90F readings at this time. Luckily, dewpoints look to remain
fairly comfortable, in the 40s and low/mid 50s.
Shower/thunderstorm chances increase late Friday with a
potential cold frontal passage. Timing of this boundary and how
quickly it and its associated precipitation push south of our
region is still uncertain. Right now, Friday night and Saturday
morning look the most likely timeframe for precipitation, but
some guidance indicates showers could linger into Sunday. Have
stayed with the WPC/NBM forecast for the entire extended period
given the uncertainty.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Through 06Z Tuesday...Another area of light rain showers is
dropping southward across eastern Vermont. Fog or mist has
formed at all terminals except MSS and BTV at this time, and
should remain through the overnight, lifting after 12z. Winds
are light and variable, and will become north or northeast at 5
to 10 knots beyond 12z. Skies will trend FEW or SCT with perhaps
a few cumulus clouds in the afternoon.
Outlook...
Tuesday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Thursday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Thursday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Friday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.
&&
$$
WHAT HAS CHANGED...Haynes/Kremer
DISCUSSION...Kremer/Hastings
AVIATION...Neiles
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