424
FXUS61 KBTV 150809
AFDBTV
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
409 AM EDT Mon Jun 15 2026
.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
As of 408 AM EDT Monday...
Flood Watch has been cancelled as rainfall has largely shifted east
of the region. Rainfall rates have also diminished to below a
quarter of an inch per hour which will preclude any additional
threat for flooding.
&&
.KEY MESSAGES...
As of 408 AM EDT Monday...
1. Cooler and drier weather to start the week followed by
unsettled weather Wednesday through the upcoming weekend.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
As of 408 AM EDT Monday...
KEY MESSAGE 1: Following the passage of the cold front this morning, we
will be under the influence of an upper level trough once again. A
return to more seasonal temperatures with highs in the mid 70s to
lower 80s is forecast through the upcoming weekend with lows in the
50s and 60s. Broad cyclonic flow could yield some isolated to
scattered diurnal shower chances today and Tuesday but nothing
significant of note. On Wednesday, an upper level trough with a weak
reflection in the MSLP fields will yield widespread showers across
New York but lower chances across Vermont with greater instability
present across northern New York.
Widespread rainfall is expected on Thursday from a quick hitting
lower pressure system that will race through the St. Lawrence
Valley. This has all the makings of a winter-like Colorado low
racing through the central US into Canada. An impressive plume of
1.75" PWAT values will advect into the North Country and northern
New York and produce some periods of moderate to heavy rainfall on
Thursday. Luckily, a strong jet streak within the synoptic trough
will force this system to push through the region quickly which will
likely preclude any hydrological issues. The potential for strong to
severe storms also seems quite low as rainfall is expected to move
in close to sunrise.
Unsettled weather will continue Friday and into the weekend as the
upper level trough builds southward as several shortwaves help
amplify the trough amplitude. Several rounds of showers, especially
during the afternoon hours, are possible Friday, Saturday, and
Sunday with steep low level lapse rates due to a pocket of colder
air aloft.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Through 06Z Tuesday...Mainly MVFR flight conditions are expected
through the next couple of hours due to a combination of moderate
rain across Vermont and low ceilings ahead of a cold front.
Intervals of VFR conditions have been occurring even within the
rain, with ceilings and visibilities bouncing at all terminals.
Improvement to VFR is largely occurring from west to east as drier
air filters in. The only site expected to see IFR conditions through
the period is SLK, although confidence in prevailing IFR is only
moderate given recent observations. Still, think low ceilings with
at least temporary IFR conditions at times through 12Z at SLK can be
expected with moist conditions and subsidence bringing cloud bases
back down until the clouds are gradually mixed out during the
morning after sunrise. Winds will trend breezy out of the west after
12Z, with some gusts 15 to 20 knots likely.
Outlook...
Tuesday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday: VFR. Chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA.
Wednesday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance
SHRA, Slight chance TSRA.
Thursday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Windy with gusts
to 30 kt. Definite SHRA, Chance TSRA.
Thursday Night: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. Chance
SHRA.
Friday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance SHRA, Slight
chance TSRA.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.
&&
$$
WHAT HAS CHANGED...Clay
DISCUSSION...Clay
AVIATION...Kutikoff
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