718
FXUS61 KBTV 310638
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
138 AM EST Wed Dec 31 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Widespread snow arrives this evening and tonight, with most areas
seeing 1 to 2 inches of snow by daybreak tomorrow and 2 to 6 inches
expected in St. Lawrence and Franklin counties of New York.
Seasonably cold weather continues into the New Year along with
occasional chances for mountain and lake effect snow showers.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 137 AM EST Wednesday...
**A Winter Weather Advisory has been issued for St. Lawrence and
 Franklin counties of New York 4 PM this afternoon through 7 AM
 tomorrow morning.
**Lake enhanced snow will transition to lighter, fluffier snow
 this evening through tomorrow morning, accumulating around 2 to
 6 inches in these two counties.
**Plan on slippery road conditions and periods of poor
 visibility during the Wednesday evening and Thursday morning
 commutes, as well as a period between 8 PM and 1 AM when snow
 may be particularly heavy.

Upslope snow showers are expected to taper off this morning with dry
conditions into the afternoon. Temperatures should rise into the
upper teens and 20s today, still 5-10 degrees below seasonal normals
but much milder than yesterday. Morning wind gusts 15-20 knots out
of the southwest will decrease in the afternoon. Then, southwesterly
flow will transport Lake Ontario moisture into the region, causing
some light to moderate snowfall to develop across northern New York
in the afternoon and evening. Surface low pressure will slide across
or just southeast of the St. Lawrence Valley tonight as a large
upper low moves across Ontario and Quebec to the north and
northwest. We`re expecting a band of moderate to perhaps briefly
heavy snow developing downwind of Lake Ontario and between the two
lows, likely in the St. Lawrence Valley, Adirondacks, and northern
Greens.

Unfortunately for those ringing in the new year across northern New
York, the heaviest snow is anticipated right around 8 PM through 1
AM, so please use caution if traveling anywhere for the
celebrations. The surface low is expected to drag a cold front
through the forecast area tonight as well, transitioning the
snowfall from a lower ratio lake enhanced snow to a lighter,
fluffier, high ratio snow that will blow around more easily tomorrow
morning. Temperatures will be in the teens and lower 20s around
midnight on New Year`s Day, falling into the bitter -5 to 15 F range
as the front draws in colder air.

Winds will be on the increase again tonight out of the northwest,
peaking tomorrow morning as snow comes to an end with gusts 10-25
knots, higher on mountaintops and on Lake Champlain. This is likely
to blow around snow, allowing treacherous travel conditions to
continue after snow ends. Temperatures tomorrow will only reach the
single digits to mid 20s despite decreasing clouds, running 10-20
degrees below averages. Plus, the gusty winds will make it feel even
colder with wind chills in the negatives.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 137 AM EST Wednesday...Tomorrow night will be especially frigid
with clear patches in the sky at times, though winds are expected to
decrease. Lows are forecast to fall into the single digits above and
below negative. Then, Friday will be yet another cold day with highs
in the teens and lower 20s and increasing clouds as flow turns once
more out of the southwest, increasing chances of some more lake
enhanced snow showers in northern New York, about 30-60% chance of
measurable precipitation in southern St. Lawrence and Franklin
counties. Moisture has about a 10-30% chance of making its way out
to the Champlain Valley and northern Greens to produce the odd snow
shower.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 125 PM EST Tuesday...A stagnant weather pattern will
prevail with troughiness over Vermont and northern New York as
we initiate 2026. Seasonably cool weather will be favored
between intervals of dry weather. Occasional troughs embedded
within the cyclonic flow will be able to pull some lake moisture
into the region to produce some snow and reinforce cool air in
place. So temperatures in the daytime will largely remain in the
20s with nighttime lows in the single digits to teens, and as
we approach, we`ll monitor whether any clearer patches can allow
some radiational cooling.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Through 00Z Thursday...IFR conditions continue at SLK . An
arctic inversion is expected to lower, and MVFR ceilings will be
possible through 03z. Continued drying and unblocked flow will
eventually cause clouds to scatter. Any lingering snow showers
will also end. Sustained northwest winds of 10 to 15 knots,
locally higher, and gusts 20 to 30 knots will continue before
slowly subsiding overnight. Snow showers are likely to begin
lifting back northeastwards into the region beyond 18z
Wednesday.

Outlook...

Wednesday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance
SHSN.
New Years Day: VFR. Slight chance SHSN.
Thursday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Friday: VFR. Slight chance SHSN.
Friday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHSN.
Saturday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Saturday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Sunday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight chance SHSN.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
NOAA Weather Radio station WXM-44, transmitting from Mt.
Ascutney, Vermont, on frequency 162.475 MHz is non-operational
at this time. NWS technicians have diagnosed the problem, but
repairs will likely not be able to occur for quite some time due
to circumstances beyond our control. Therefore, the time of
return to service is currently unknown. The following NOAA
Weather Radio transmitters may be able to provide service during
this outage: WWG 50 from Burke Mtn, VT at 162.425 MHz and WNG
546 from Hanover, NH at 162.525 MHz.

The Colchester Reef meteorological station is out of service.
This site is not serviced by the NWS and there isn`t an
estimated return to service at present. Use extra caution when
navigating the broad waters of Lake Champlain. Please contact us
if you observe winds significantly deviating from the
recreational forecast.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...Winter Weather Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 7 AM EST
     Thursday for NYZ026-027-029-030-087.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Storm
NEAR TERM...Storm
SHORT TERM...Storm
LONG TERM...Haynes
AVIATION...Haynes/Neiles
EQUIPMENT...Team BTV