065
FXUS61 KBTV 052344
AFDBTV
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
644 PM EST Thu Mar 5 2026
.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
As of 143 PM EST Thursday...
Winter Wx Advisories cancelled for portions of northern New York.
Less ice expected.
&&
.KEY MESSAGES...
As of 143 PM EST Thursday...
1. A wintry mix expected overnight across central and southern
portions of the forecast area.
2. Weekend warmup with periods of showers likely Saturday and
Saturday night.
3. The potential for ice jams and localized hydrological
related issues will need to be monitored this weekend thru the
middle of next week due to the potential for well above average
temperatures.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
As of 143 PM EST Thursday...
KEY MESSAGE 1: 12Z deterministic guidance continued a favor a more
southern track of weak surface low pressure and a potent shortwave
aloft tonight along with cooler atmospheric temperature profiles
resulting in more limited mixed precipitation especially across
central/northern zones. As such, the winter weather advisory area
has been shrunk to exclude St. Lawrence and Franklin Counties of New
York. As precipitation develops tonight, forecast soundings still
support a mix of freezing rain, sleet and snow south of a line from
Mt. Marcy to Lebanon while northward little to no precipitation is
expected. The warm nose aloft, already noted by above freezing temps
on top of Mt. Mansfield and Whiteface this afternoon, will erode and
eventually all precipitation will change to snow before rapidly
ending around sunrise Friday. The end result will be a dusting of
snow and sleet across central VT and the Adirondacks, while Rutland
and Windsor counties see 1-2" of snow and sleet along with a trace
to 1/10th of an inch of ice accretion. The main impacts will be a
potentially slick morning commute.
KEY MESSAGE 2: No major changes to the forecast for the weekend which
features low pressure tracking northeast through the Great Lakes and
a persistent area of high pressure off the Atlantic seaboard. Strong
southwesterly flow between these features will usher in a warm and
moist airmass across the Northeast on Saturday with temperatures
pushing well above seasonal normals. On the leading edge of the warm
air advection CAMs support some scattered showers traversing the
region Friday night into Saturday morning. For the most part these
won`t present any type of hazard, but east of the Green Mountains a
good cold air damming signature is in place supporting temperatures
remaining below freezing until mid Saturday morning. This supports
the chance for pockets of freezing rain, mainly before sunrise. At
the same time a developing 925-850mb low-level jet builds into the
region and will support strong surface wind gusts from the SSW up to
40 mph in the Champlain and St. Lawrence Valleys. This will help
warm surface temperatures rapidly into the 40s and 50s by noon with
afternoon highs expected to be in the 50s to near 60 west of the
Green Mountains and mid/upper 40s east. Late in the afternoon and
into the overnight hours a cold front sweeps through the region with
scattered to numerous showers and potentially a few rumbles of
thunder, mainly in the St. Lawrence Valley. Sunday will be dry with
continued warmth, but cooler in the mid/upper 40s.
KEY MESSAGE 3: No significant changes were made to the extended
forecast for early to mid next week regarding the anomalously warm
temperatures and hydro concerns. A summer like Bermuda high pressure
ridge will remain anchored to the southeast coast, extending north
towards the International Border. South/southwest flow will result
in temperatures 20-30 degrees above normal for early March, with 850
and 500mb temperatures in the 97-99th percentiles based on the
NAEFS. Highs will push the upper 50s, with perhaps some localized
low 60s across the southern St. Lawrence Valley, southern Vermont,
and eastern downslope regions of the Adirondacks and Greens. While
this warmup will be well above average for early to mid March, it
does not look like any records will be in danger of being broken.
Many records are in the low to mid 60s, which resides in the 90th
percentile and above.
There will be several weak boundaries that will travel along the St.
Lawrence Valley and International Border, attempting to suppress the
warm temperatures at times, with the best organized boundary looking
to move through mid week. Better chances for shower activity next
week will be across northern New York on the western periphery of
the thermal ridge. Ensemble PWATs both in the Euro and GEFS are
denote a likely probability exceeding 0.5", with a good amount of
members still denoting up to 0.75-1". Overall, current moisture
totals doesn`t look overly concerning, however, there are some
signals of some more convective type showers by mid week, which
could become concerning in the coming days for additional liquid
additions to area rivers. There is still some uncertainty with how
organized any of these boundaries will be and how much associated
QPF falls with the shower activity.
Regardless of the above uncertainty, warm temperatures and dewpoints
above freezing will lead to widespread snow melt across the area.
The prolonged warm spell will surge 72hr Mon-Wed thawing degree
hours to 650-900, with some localized areas pushing 1000 in the
southern St. Lawrence Valley, southern Vermont, and Champlain
Valley. These values suggest enough melting for scattered to
numerous ice break up, which could lead to or increase the risk of
ice jam related flooding. Current NAEFS and GEFS snow melt liquid
equivalent loss ranges from 1-3". Combined with the ensemble QPF
possibilities, total liquid additions to rivers varies from 1.5-4"
which would support at least Action to Minor river flood potential.
GEFS and NAEFS still indicate many rivers will experience sharp
rises, particularly the Mad River, Salmon, Ausable, Otter Creek, and
possible the Winooski River near Essex, reaching at at or near
Action Stage. There is slightly more confidence that Otter Creek
could reach at least Minor Flood Stage with the 50th percentile for
the river rises at Minor Flood Stage. I do think, like past
forecasters, that the added snow melt may be a bit overdone for many
of the area rivers, but sharp rises can be expected with the general
idea that ice jam flooding and associated isolated/localized
flooding will be possible at times between Sunday and Wednesday.
Given the uncertainty with the increasing hydrological concerns next
week, please pay close attention to the forecast as we move closer
to early to mid next week. If confidence continues to increase a
flood watch for ice jam related flooding maybe needed in later
forecasts.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Through 00Z Saturday...Conditions are currently VFR. North to
northeast flow at 5-15 knots prevails as cool air has drained
through our lower elevations and all TAF terminals, but
temperatures are warm aloft. Any precipitation will remain
mainly south definitely reaching KRUT, perhaps KMPV, and
unlikely at remaining terminals. Mainly high clouds at or above
15000 ft agl are overhead now, except around 5000-7000 ft agl
near KRUT. Ceilings will gradually lower with intervals of MVFR.
Precipitation will likely begin as FZRA at KRUT, and
temperatures aloft will slowly cool. So a gradual shift to PL,
and then finally SN is expected, with the potential for IFR
visibility tied to the transition to SN, which seems most likely
about 06z-08z. If any precipitation reaches KMPV, it`ll most
likely be SNPL. Any precipitation will exit Vermont around
10z-12z, and afterwards, a shift to south to southeast is
expected. KMSS will remain northeast. Wind speeds will be around
5-8 knots. once the wind shift has occurred, with a few gusts
15-20 knots, locally higher possible at KRUT. The southeast wind
shift will result in lower ceilings between 1200-2500 ft agl at
KPBG and KMPV likely for the rest of the day.
Outlook...
Friday Night: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Windy with
gusts to 30 kt. Chance SHRA, Chance FZRA.
Saturday: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Windy with gusts
to 30 kt. Chance SHRA.
Saturday Night: Mainly IFR, with areas MVFR possible. Likely
SHRA.
Sunday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. NO SIG WX.
Sunday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Monday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Monday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday: VFR. Slight chance RA.
&&
.EQUIPMENT...
The KBTV ASOS has suffered a communications failure. The issue
has been diagnosed, but there is currently no estimated time of
return to service. The affected communications line is not
serviced by the NWS. Terminal Aerodrome Forecasts will continue,
but regular observations may not be available.
NOAA Weather Radio station WXM-44, transmitting from Mt.
Ascutney, Vermont, on frequency 162.475 MHz is non- operational
at this time. NWS technicians have diagnosed the problem, but
repairs will likely not be able to occur for quite some time due
to circumstances beyond our control. Therefore, the time of
return to service is currently unknown. The following NOAA
Weather Radio transmitters may be able to provide service during
this outage: WWG 50 from Burke Mtn, VT at 162.425 MHz and WNG
546 from Hanover, NH at 162.525 MHz.
The Colchester Reef meteorological station is out of service.
This site is not serviced by the NWS and there isn`t an
estimated return to service at present. Please contact us if you
observe winds significantly deviating from the recreational
forecast.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...Winter Weather Advisory until 10 AM EST Friday for VTZ009-011-
018-019.
NY...Winter Weather Advisory until 10 AM EST Friday for NYZ034.
&&
$$
WHAT HAS CHANGED...Lahiff
DISCUSSION...Danzig/Lahiff
AVIATION...Haynes
EQUIPMENT...NWS BTV
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