085
FXUS61 KBTV 061837
AFDBTV
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
137 PM EST Fri Mar 6 2026
.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
As of 136 PM EST Friday...
Winter Wx Advisory in effect for portions of central and northeast
Vermont tonight.
&&
.KEY MESSAGES...
As of 136 PM EST Friday...
1. Areas of freezing drizzle and freezing rain tonight across
central and northeast Vermont.
2. Active weather continues by the middle of next week with a
temperature roller coaster possible.
3. The potential for some river ice movement/breakup and the
potential for a few ice jams remains possible later this weekend
into early next week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
As of 136 PM EST Friday...
KEY MESSAGE 1: The forecast remains on track heading into the weekend
which features low pressure tracking northeast through the Great
Lakes and a persistent area of high pressure off the Atlantic
seaboard. Strong south-southwesterly flow between these features
will usher in a warm and moist airmass across the Northeast on
Saturday with temperatures pushing well above seasonal normals. On
the leading edge of the warm air advection CAMs came in with a bit
more areal coverage of showers tonight into Saturday morning which
for the most of the area won`t present any type of hazard, but east
of the Green Mountains we still expect temperatures to fall back
below freezing tonight due to cold air damming. With above freezing
temperatures moving in aloft, the expected precipitation type will
be freezing rain for a short period of time before sunrise across
portions of central and northeast Vermont. Therefore, we`ve gone
ahead and issued a Winter Wx Advisory for light icing up to a tenth
of an inch. After sunrise, temps warm significantly above freezing
ending the threat, with showers continuing across much of the region
through about noon followed by a brief lull, then more showers and
possibly a few rumbles of thunder late afternoon through Saturday
night along a frontal passage. Winds will be additionally gusty
tonight through Saturday as a developing 925-850mb low-level jet
builds over the region and will support strong surface wind gusts
from the SSW 35-45 mph, especially in the Champlain and St. Lawrence
Valleys.
KEY MESSAGE 2: Uncertainty remains in the forecast, mainly in regard to
the middle portions of next week in regard to p-type. The main
player will be an expansive, late season arctic high off to our
north across southern Quebec and its associated frontal zone. The
latter feature should be draped somewhere near our area, so its
placement north/south by Wed/Wed Nt will be critical on eventual
amounts of wintry precipitation (or not) as low pressure rides along
the boundary. Deterministic models remain all over the place with
the latitudinal placement of the front, and given a higher than
normal confidence of a sharp north-south baroclinicity across
the boundary it`s wise not to discount any solution at this
point. We should know more in the next few days. By late week a
general trend toward a more quiet, seasonably cool weather
pattern is expected.
KEY MESSAGE 3: Given milder air pushing into our region over the
weekend and into early next week, some slight to modest river rises
are forecast. While widespread flooding is not expected, these rises
may be enough, in some cases, to foster partial river ice movement
and/or breakup. If that scenario pans out, a few ice jams and
associated flooding may be possible. However, confidence is not high
enough at this point to warrant a Flood Watch. As always, it`s
nearly impossible to predict the exact location of any potential
jams, but with the predicted milder weather conditions will be
monitored closely going forward over the coming days.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Through 18Z Saturday...An area of low pressure currently crossing the
Midwest will pass through the Great Lakes and dive across the mid-
Atlantic tonight through Saturday night. Several wider valley
locations continue to report below freezing temperatures even into
the afternoon today, including MSS and PBG, where cold surface air
will linger. Any of the colder hollows of the region will also
likely see temperatures fall quickly below freezing tonight,
including SLK, EFK, and MPV. This will contrast sharply with warm
air aloft advecting into the region over the next 24 hours. We`re
also seeing plenty of moisture throughout the atmospheric column,
indicating a relatively misty and drizzle-infused period, though
increasing winds should keep sustained fog from forming. Ceilings
across the region are largely VFR this afternoon outside the blocked
flow 1400-1900 foot clouds across central and southern Vermont. We
expect clouds to lower for all other sites around 00Z-06Z Saturday
to MVFR levels or lower. We are also forecasting winds to increase
over the next few hours out of the south, gusting 20-35 knots or
higher by 00Z-12Z Saturday, though southern Vermont may see
decreased gusts, instead mainly sustained winds 5-15 knots out of
the south-southeast at RUT. A strong southwesterly low level jet
35-55 knots will make for potent and long-lasting low level wind
shear at all sites, primarily 03Z Saturday onwards. Freezing drizzle
is possible at MPV tonight and would begin around 05Z-07Z Saturday,
changing over to freezing rain around 08Z-10Z Saturday as forcing
increases. Another site that has the potential for some patchy
freezing drizzle is SLK, though that should quickly turn to plain
drizzle, light rain showers, or mist as surface temperatures rise
more quickly across northern New York. Elsewhere, rain showers are
forecast starting around 08Z-12Z Saturday. Ceilings will also
continue lowering during this time, and widespread IFR cigs are
anticipated around 06Z-12Z Saturday, lasting at most sites through
18Z. Gusty southerly winds will be their highest around 12Z through
18Z Saturday with localized enhancements in the Champlain Valley due
to channeling and in the northern Adirondacks due to downsloping.
Peak winds will be 30-40 knots at BTV and PBG during this period.
Outlook...
Saturday Night: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. Definite SHRA.
Sunday: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. Chance SHRA.
Sunday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Monday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Monday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday Night: VFR. Chance RA.
Wednesday: Mainly MVFR, with areas IFR possible. Definite RA.
&&
.EQUIPMENT...
The KBTV ASOS has suffered a communications failure. The issue
has been diagnosed, but there is currently no estimated time of
return to service. The affected communications line is not
serviced by the NWS. Terminal Aerodrome Forecasts will continue,
but regular observations may not be available.
NOAA Weather Radio station WXM-44, transmitting from Mt.
Ascutney, Vermont, on frequency 162.475 MHz is non- operational
at this time. NWS technicians have diagnosed the problem, but
repairs will likely not be able to occur for quite some time due
to circumstances beyond our control. Therefore, the time of
return to service is currently unknown. The following NOAA
Weather Radio transmitters may be able to provide service during
this outage: WWG 50 from Burke Mtn, VT at 162.425 MHz and WNG
546 from Hanover, NH at 162.525 MHz.
The Colchester Reef meteorological station is out of service.
This site is not serviced by the NWS and there isn`t an
estimated return to service at present. Please contact us if you
observe winds significantly deviating from the recreational
forecast.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...Winter Weather Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 7 AM EST
Saturday for VTZ003-004-006>008-010.
NY...None.
&&
$$
WHAT HAS CHANGED...Lahiff
DISCUSSION...JMG/Lahiff
AVIATION...Storm
EQUIPMENT...NWS BTV
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