547
FXUS61 KBTV 090659
AFDBTV
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
259 AM EDT Thu Apr 9 2026
.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
As of 235 AM EDT Thursday...
Durations of 30 to 40 mph gusts in the northern Champlain Valley
have been extended through 10 PM.
&&
.KEY MESSAGES...
As of 235 AM EDT Thursday...
1. Near critical fire weather conditions expected for parts of
the area on Thursday due to gusty winds and low humidities.
2. A frontal system moving through Friday is strongly favored
to bring a widespread wetting rainfall.
3. An active weather pattern is expected for next week, with
several chances for rainfall and unseasonably warm temperatures for
early next week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
As of 235 AM EDT Thursday...
KEY MESSAGE 1: The combination of low humidity, gusty winds,
and warm temperatures, along with areas of receptive fuels has
increased our fire weather concerns for today. A Special
Weather Statement has been issued for near critical fire weather
conditions expected, after coordination with partners on fuel
conditions.
High pressure shifting eastward while a system approaching out
of the Great Lakes Region will increase the pressure gradient
across the region promoting gusty southerly flow today. While
the low level jet is not as impressive as last week`s,
temperatures are expected to be warmer resulting in better
mixing of 30-40mph winds to the surface mainly across the east-
west portion of Highway 11 corridor in northern New York and for
the Champlain Valley where flow typically channels. Timing of
the passing of the 850mb jet maximum has slid to the evening
hours suggesting winds will remain gusty for longer and may
result in speeds approaching 45 mph at times right along the
lake shore and across the islands. A few showers or virga may
accompany this streak, so RH could start climbing late afternoon
into the evening coincident with the jet maximum.
Otherwise, very dry air aloft will mix to the surface with
widespread RH ranging 20-35%. These conditions coupled with
gusty winds and dry fine fuel promote increased rates of fire
spread and would be concerning should a fire ignite. Poor RH
recoveries are likely given the progged thermal structure of the
2500-5000ft layer where dry conditions will linger.
KEY MESSAGE 2: A frontal will move into the region Friday with
satellite showing its current position in the Great Lakes
Region. While this system will NOT be a soaker, models have
increased QPF over the last cycle. CAMs and NBM have increased
into the 0.1-0.4" range across the region supporting wetting
rains that would help alleviate dry finer fuels. Leaned more
into CAMs to better highlight 0.25-0.4 inches across terrain
with 0.1-0.25 generally for lower elevations. The one foil for
QPF for eastern Essex County in northern New York, the
Champlain Valley, and Windsor County in Vermont could be rain
shadowing with a decent 40-55kt 850mb jet accompanying the
front.
KEY MESSAGE 3: After a brief period of high pressure over the weekend,
a more active weather pattern is expected heading into next week,
bringing several chances for rainfall to the region. The first
chances look to arrive Sunday night into Monday, with a frontal
boundary situated across the region, although there is still some
uncertainty as to the exact location of this feature, and how that
might impact temperatures and overall precipitation amounts.
Additional shortwaves look to pass through the region towards mid-
week, continuing to bring additional chances for showers.
Unseasonably warm temperatures are expected for early next week, as
southerly flow helps usher in warmer air. The current forecast has
daytime high temperatures climbing into the mid and upper 60s Monday
and Tuesday, with a few locations near 70 for Tuesday. In
comparison, normal high temperatures for this time of year are
generally in the upper 40s to mid 50s. Depending on where the
aforementioned boundary sets up for Monday, daytime temperatures may
be impacted, with more northern locations cooler while some locales
in southern Vermont may soar into the upper 70s. These trends will
need to be monitored as we get closer.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Through 06Z Friday...Gusty winds and dry conditions are
anticipated over the next 24 hours, with high confidence of VFR
flight rules. Current southwesterly to southerly winds as of
23Z Wednesday are running 3-9 knots, though exact wind direction
is highly variable and dependent on location. Throughout the
overnight period and into Thursday, we anticipate winds to
increase out of the south with widespread sustained winds 10+
knots by 09Z-15Z. Gusts are likely to exceed 20 knots everywhere
by around 12Z-15Z Thursday, increasing further to 30-40 knots at
BTV, SLK, PBG, and MSS by roughly 15Z-18Z, enhanced by
channeling in the Champlain and St. Lawrence valleys. BTV will
likely be the first site to see winds heighten in this way due
to this channeling. It`s not out of the question for gusts at
PBG to exceed 40 knots around 16Z-20Z Thursday in peak valley
channeling and atmospheric mixing, but at this time, confidence
is not high enough to include that in the TAF. Some localized
low-level wind shear will develop at MSS over the next few hours
with a 30-40 knot southwesterly jet moving overhead. This will
also spread to SLK and EFK around 15Z-18Z as the jet shifts
northeastward and strengthens to 40-45 knots.
Outlook...
Friday: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Likely SHRA.
Friday Night: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Slight chance
SHRA.
Saturday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. NO SIG WX.
Saturday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Sunday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Sunday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA.
Monday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA.
&&
.EQUIPMENT...
The Colchester Reef meteorological station is out of service.
This site is not serviced by the NWS. An estimated return to
service is May 1st. Please contact us if you observe winds
significantly deviating from the recreational forecast.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.
&&
$$
WHAT HAS CHANGED...Boyd
DISCUSSION...Boyd/Kremer
AVIATION...Kremer
EQUIPMENT...NWS BTV
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