245
FXUS61 KBTV 141058
AFDBTV
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
658 AM EDT Tue Oct 14 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
A few showers will linger through this morning before tapering
off this afternoon as low pressure pulls eastward. Cool, breezy,
and dry conditions will prevail through much of the remainder
of the week. We trend warmer for the weekend, with our next
chance for widespread rain not arriving until early next week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 239 AM EDT Tuesday...A few showers will continue to
linger across the region this morning, gradually tapering off as
low pressure continues to pull away from the coast. High
temperatures this afternoon will be fairly seasonable, generally
in the upper 50s and low 60s with some cloudy skies for much of
the day. Overnight lows tonight will generally be in the 30s
and lower 40s. A cold front will approach the region tonight,
ushering in a much drier and cooler airmass. Although this
feature will be fairly moisture starved, a few showers may be
possible, especially across the higher terrain of the
Adirondacks and northern Greens.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 239 AM EDT Tuesday...Cooler and drier conditions are
expected for the middle of the week, as high pressure builds
into the Great Lakes, with brisk northerly prevailing across the
region, with some fire weather concerns possible with near
critical conditions possible. High temperatures on Wednesday
will only climb into the upper 40s and lower 50s. A weak
shortwave looks to pass through, although with such a dry
airmass across the region this feature will likely only bring
some increased cloud cover. Winds will be breezy, especially in
the Champlain Valley where some channeling is expected, with
gusts of 20 to 30 mph. Minimum relative humidity values will
generally be be 35 to 45 percent. Winds will remain elevated
overnight, which will keep locations from radiating out
completely, but it will still be a chilly night with low
temperatures in the 20s and lower 30s, with temperatures in the
upper 30s near Lake Champlain. Thursday will feature breezy and
dry conditions once again, raising some fire weather concerns.
Northerly winds with gusts of 20 to 30 mph are expected, with
minimum relative humidity values between 30 and 40 percent.
Temperatures on Thursday will once again be on the cool side,
climbing into the upper 40s to mid 50s.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 239 AM EDT Tuesday...Winds will remain brisk Thursday
night, but then weaken on Friday. The upper level flow becomes
extremely amplified in the long term portion of the forecast. On
Friday a large upper level ridge will build into the area, and
we will also have high pressure at the surface. By Friday night
as the ridge builds overhead, some vorticity energy will make it
around the top of the ridge and present possibility of some
light rain showers. Saturday is expected to be mainly dry as
upper ridge begins to slide east of our region. Next chance for
showers will be introduced Saturday night into Sunday as a
surface front pushes across our area. Upper level trough will
trail behind the surface front a bit, and as it moves across our
area chance for precipitation will continue into Monday. Flow
will become favorable for some upslope showers Monday night into
Tuesday.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Through 12Z Wednesday...Varying conditions across the terminals
as of 11z this morning with VFR at PBG and MPV, MVFR at BTV,
RUT and SLK for ceilings, and IFR at EFK and MSS due to
ceilings. Some light rain showers are moving across the air
space, and after these showers clear our area conditions will
improve, likely from west to east across the area. Dry cold
front crosses the area overnight, and winds will become out of
the northwest. Winds will be gusty at PBG and BTV late in the
period. Will see ceilings lower once again Tuesday night with
the frontal passage.
Outlook...
Wednesday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Thursday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Thursday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Friday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Friday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA.
Saturday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight chance
SHRA.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Kremer
NEAR TERM...Kremer
SHORT TERM...Kremer
LONG TERM...Neiles
AVIATION...Neiles
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