968
FXUS61 KBTV 020541
AFDBTV
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
141 AM EDT Thu Apr 2 2026
.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
As of 232 PM EDT Wednesday...
Confidence has increased in some localized, light mixed
precipitation Thursday into Friday. Guidance has also increased
wind gusts, potentially as high as 35-40 knots Thursday night
and Friday.
&&
.KEY MESSAGES...
As of 232 PM EDT Wednesday...
1. Light wintry precipitation and light icing are likely in the
Adirondacks, the Greens, and east of the Greens Thursday into
Friday. Slick travel conditions are possible, particularly
during Thursday morning and evening commutes.
2. Active weather continues over the weekend as a series of
fronts bring rain and gusty winds. While the weather will be
active, no significant impacts are expected at this time.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
As of 232 PM EDT Wednesday...
KEY MESSAGE 1: Shortwave troughing will track across the
southern half of our forecast area tonight, bringing
precipitation to southern and central Vermont early Thursday
morning as winds aloft turn more southerly. As surface
temperatures fall into the upper 20s to mid 30s, southern spots
that get precipitation could see some very light wintry
precipitation and light icing during the morning commute. During
the day Thursday, a surface low pressure system will traverse
from the Plains to the Great Lakes, allowing for some warm air
advection and more widespread precipitation across northern New
York and Vermont. Depending on how much surface cold air gets
trapped east of the Greens and in cold pockets of the
Adirondacks, icing may continue through Thursday night for some.
Where temperatures warm into the upper 30s to lower 40s
Thursday afternoon, rain will be the primary precipitation type.
Then, Thursday night, temperatures are forecast to fall back
into the 30s for most. Isolated ice accumulation may be as much
as a quarter of an inch for higher elevations of the mountains.
General precipitation amounts of around 0.10-0.50 inches are
anticipated, so impacts to rivers should be minimal to none,
however, winds will also increase Thursday night out of the
south and continue into Friday, likely gusting as high as 35-40
knots for some. Widespread temperatures in the upper 50s and 60s
on Friday will finally end the threat of wintry precip, though
chances of rain showers will linger as a couple frontal
boundaries cross the region. With all the warmth, moisture, and
frontal forcing being projected for Friday, there could even be
some rumbles of thunder out there.
KEY MESSAGE 2: A closed upper low barreling through the central
US will drive the development of a deepening surface low
Saturday. This low will become the focus for our next period of
active weather. The low pressure system will lift through the
Great Lakes Region into southeastern Canada Saturday night into
Sunday, sending a series of fronts through the northeastern US.
The passage of the warm front will occur sometime late Saturday
into Saturday night. Some showers are possible as the warm front
moves through. Developing southerly flow and warm air advection
will allow Saturday`s temperatures to climb to the mid 50s to
mid 60s, so any initial showers that move through will be in the
form of rain.
Within the warm sector of the system, a 50 to 60 knot southerly
low level jet will develop. Forecast soundings showing a stout
low-level inversion from the warm air advection, so the majority
of this momentum will stay aloft. However, some areas will
become windy overnight, especially where southerly channeled
flow is favored. NBM wind probabilities are highlighting the
northern Champlain Valley and higher elevations of the northern
Greens and northern slopes of the Adirondacks as areas that will
see the strongest overnight gusts (about 70% probability of
seeing wind gusts in excess of 30 mph).
The timing of the passage of the cold front with the system
will dictate whether or not we see any flooding threat towards
the end of the weekend. Warm temperatures preceding the cold
front will promote additional snowmelt in the few areas that
still have snow. According to latest NOHRSC analysis, this is
just the highest elevations of the northern Adirondacks,
northern Greens, and the Northeast Kingdom. In addition to
marginal snowmelt amounts feeding into waterways, any locally
moderate or heavier rainfall would result in additional river
rises. At this point, QPF amounts do not look concerning (NBM
Mean 24 hour QPF in the quarter to half inch range). This is due
to the progressive nature of the system/ relatively quick
frontal passage. However, will have to watch thunderstorm
potential, which could result in some locally briefly moderate
intensity rainfall. It`s worth noting the PW values will climb
to over an inch (around 300% of normal for this time of year),
however at this point instability looks minimal. The timing of
the fronts and potential clearing/window for destabilization
doesn`t look to line up favorably for thunderstorms based on the
deterministic ECMWF and GFS at this point. Overall taking all
factors together, we are watching several aspects of this
system, but at this point we are not seeing anything overly
concerning from a hydro perspective. This is supported by NAEFS
and GEFS based simulations for river level probabilities, which
show rises on Sunday/Monday but show the most likely scenario is
that all rivers stay below flood stage.
Once the cold front sweeps through, expect a quick transition
to cooler conditions to start the next work week. Highs next
week are forecast in the 40s, which is 5-10 degrees below normal
for early April highs.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Through 06Z Friday...MVFR conditions only remain at EFK and MPV
as clearing works into our region from west to east. After 12Z,
increased moisture across the region will likely lead to
another period of MVFR ceilings through the daylight hours,
along with increased chances for precipitation late in the day,
generally after 20z. Light and variable winds overnight, then
increase again out of the S/SE during the daytime. The exception
will be KMSS which will hold onto a NE wind through the period.
Outlook...
Friday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Windy with gusts to
35 kt. Chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA.
Friday Night: MVFR. Slight chance SHRA.
Saturday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA.
Saturday Night: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. Windy with
gusts to 30 kt. Definite SHRA.
Sunday: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Definite SHRA.
Sunday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Slight chance
SHRA, Slight chance SHSN.
Monday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Slight chance SHSN.
&&
.EQUIPMENT...
The Colchester Reef meteorological station is out of service.
This site is not serviced by the NWS. An estimated return to
service is May 1st. Please contact us if you observe winds
significantly deviating from the recreational forecast.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...Winter Weather Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 10 AM EDT
Friday for VTZ003-004-006>008-010-018>021.
NY...None.
&&
$$
WHAT HAS CHANGED...Storm
DISCUSSION...Duell/Storm
AVIATION...Neiles
EQUIPMENT...NWS BTV
|
