423
FXUS61 KBTV 032315
AFDBTV
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
715 PM EDT Wed Jun 3 2026
.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
As of 222 PM EDT Wednesday...
No significant changes were made to the forecast.
&&
.KEY MESSAGES...
As of 248 PM EDT Wednesday...
1. Seasonably warm weather will continue through Friday
areawide. Due to low humidity and temperatures mainly in the 80s,
only a minor to moderate heat risk is expected on Thursday and
Friday.
2. Showers are expected on Saturday, with potential for a few
thunderstorms during the afternoon.
3. Seasonable and rainy conditions expected to end the weekend,
resulting a few river rises but no major impacts anticipated. Then,
drier and warmer weather returns next week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
As of 248 PM EDT Wednesday...
KEY MESSAGE 1: A large ridge of high pressure centered over the Great
Lakes region is providing us with ideal conditions for low humidity
and clear skies. Winds will remain on the light side as the
sprawling ridge gradually shifts eastward while surface high
pressure weakens and moves into the southern US. The position of
this high will prevent development of significant heat to build.
During the day Thursday, as our winds shift to more of a light west
to southwest direction, we therefore won`t be advecting in
particularly hot air. That being said, it is still June and the air
mass will be very warm with temperatures expected to reach bump up
into the mid to upper 80s with a few spot 90s in our lower
elevations up to about 1000 feet, and low 80s near 1000 to 2000
feet. This type of warmth will affect people sensitive to heat, but
will not warrant a Heat Advisory. Temperatures on Friday have
trended warmer with greater likelihood of plentiful sunshine
and similar or even slightly warmer temperatures aloft. So high
temperatures Friday are now near or a degree or two above
Thursday, although clouds will be on the increase with a bit of
an uptick in humidity.
KEY MESSAGE 2: While a general thunderstorm risk from the Storm
Prediction Center begins Friday night for northern New York and
northwestern Vermont, associated with a lead shortwave well ahead of
an incoming cold front, much greater chances for showers and
thunderstorms remains for Saturday. It should be noted while chances
of rain are very high, precipitation may be on the scattered side
such that many hours will be dry for a given location; as we get
closer we`ll be able to improve the details both in location and
timing.
Generally, with increasing low level moisture including truly
humid air (dew points getting into the 60s) and moderate heat
in place in our region, we are track to see ingredients for
showers and thunderstorms as a fairly vigorous mid-upper level
shortwave approaches from the west concurrent with a weak
surface cold front situated to our north and west. The output
from the latest RRFS model run, which is a CAM that extends to
84 hours, is largely consistent with this idea. Its output shows greatest
CAPE generally out ahead of where most shower activity develops
across Vermont and especially central and eastern areas during
the midday hours, with additional instability building back
across northern New York and south output favors thunderstorms
to our south with less coverage across northern New York and
Vermont. Generally, thunderstorm potential will be related to
showers/coverage of rain during the midday hours would reduce
the probabilities of thunderstorms as cloud cover would sap us
of potential instability. That being said, some of the latest
guidance compared to 24 hours ago shows more substantial
vertical wind shear (mainly speed rather than directional
shear) overhead concurrent with peak heating. As such, the
threat of a stronger thunderstorm or two is in the realm of
possibility for this event.
In addition to lightning and wind risk with any deeper/stronger
updrafts, forecast soundings suggest some showers will be
capable of heavy rainfall rates. Parameters such as the PWAT
(values around 2 standard deviations above normal), warm cloud
depths (near 10,000 feet), and low corfidi upshear wind speeds
(ability for showers to train), are supportive of heavy rain but
only marginally so. No guidance at this time is pointing to
excessive rainfall amounts, as there is low probability of even
1"/ 6 hour rainfall, but it bears watching with somewhat slow
moving boundaries in place during the event.
KEY MESSAGE 3: Upper level troughing is expected to slide through
Quebec into the Canadian maritimes Saturday and Saturday night,
though deterministic models disagree on the strength and
precise track of this low. At the surface, low pressure will
sink southeastward across New England into Sunday, dragging with
it a frontal boundary that may end up stalling over the region.
This means steady light rain is anticipated Saturday night and
Sunday morning, with some precipitation likely lingering in
southern vermont Sunday afternoon. The setup suggests at least a
quarter to a third of an inch of precipitation Saturday night
and Sunday is likely for most of Vermont, with lower
probabilities in northern New York. Increased cloud coverage
will keep conditions relatively mild overnight with lows in the
mid 50s to lower 60s. On the flip side, clouds and rain should
limit temperatures for much of the day Sunday. That being said,
highs should reach seasonable levels in the lower and mid 70s as
the day sees gradual drying and clearing. Given the extent of
the dryness leading up to the rain this weekend, we do not
anticipate flooding issues, though some river rises are
possible, especially if a basin receives any thunderstorms
Saturday ahead of the steadier rain Saturday night and Sunday.
Early next week, large scale ridging will build in from the
northwest with ensembles favoring a return to dry and warm
conditions. Highs are expected to rise to widespread 80s
midweek, several degrees above normal, and lows will also be
warm in the 50s and 60s.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Through 00Z Friday...VFR conditions are expected to continue
throughout the forecast period as high pressure remains
situated over the region, with just a few high clouds streaming
overhead. Winds are expected to remain light and terrain driven
overnight, with typical southeasterly drainage winds expected at
KRUT. Winds are expected to be west/southwesterly throughout
the day tomorrow, with some higher winds expected at KMSS due to
channeled flow.
Outlook...
Thursday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Friday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Friday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
Saturday: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. Definite SHRA,
Chance TSRA.
Saturday Night: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Likely
SHRA, Slight chance TSRA.
Sunday: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. Chance SHRA, Slight chance
TSRA.
Sunday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Monday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
&&
.CLIMATE...
Temperatures will be approaching daily record warm values on
Thursday, June 4th, and Friday, June 5th. At this time,
Plattsburgh (PBG) and Montpelier (MPV) have the greatest chances
of setting a new record.
Record High Temperatures:
June 4:
KMPV: 87/2025
KPBG: 88/1967
June 5:
KMPV: 86/2025
KPBG: 90/2020
Record High Minimum Temperatures:
June 5:
KPBG: 65/1963
June 6:
KPBG: 67/1973
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.
&&
$$
WHAT HAS CHANGED...Kutikoff
DISCUSSION...Kutikoff/Storm
AVIATION...Kremer
CLIMATE...NWS BTV
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