000
FXUS61 KBTV 141915
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
315 PM EDT Mon Oct 14 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak, mainly dry cold front will swing through the area this
evening with little fanfare. High pressure briefly returns for
Tuesday before stronger low pressure and steadier rainfall
arrive by later Wednesday into Thursday. Some of the rain may
fall heavily at times, though uncertainty remains on exact
amounts and areal placement.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 315 PM EDT Monday...A weak cold front continues to
progress steadily eastward into the forecast area as of mid-
afternoon. Despite increasing cloud cover moisture is rather
limited along the boundary and only lower-end, spotty chances
for a few light showers or sprinkles will be maintained across
northern counties through early evening. By later tonight the
front will push well east allowing shortwave ridging to build
into the area with skies becoming gradually clear in the
pre-dawn hours. Low temperatures a blend of bias-corrected MOS
data - mainly 30s to locally around 40 in the Champlain Valley.

Aforementioned high then bridges atop and east of the area during
Tuesday/Tuesday night. Tuesday should feature mostly sunny skies and
light winds with afternoon temperature maxima topping out in the
50s. Tuesday night lows should run similar to tonight`s readings,
though tend to level off from the Champlain Valley west after
midnight as low level flow trends light southerly over time.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 328 AM EDT Monday...Surface high pressure will depart the
region Tuesday night ahead of the advancing frontal system expected
to impact the region on Wednesday. An increasingly strong pressure
gradient is expected to develop across the North Country through the
overnight hours in response to the departing high and approaching
front. This will yield increasing winds through the overnight period
with gusty winds in the 25 to 35 mph range expected to develop
during the day on Wednesday. The overall set up hasn`t changed with
a mature extratropical cyclone crossing the Great Lakes during the
day with a secondary low forming along the triple point at the
intersection of the warm front and cold front off the coast of
Virginia. This secondary low will quickly become the main focus with
the low north of the international border weakening and ultimately
phasing with the low off the northeast coastline late on Wednesday.
The latest model trends relating to the timing of precipitation on
Wednesday seems to be about 6 hours slower than the runs yesterday
which is likely attributed to the rapid cyclogenesis expected to
occur with the secondary low developing off the New England coast
Wednesday afternoon and evening.

There are still a few discrepancies relating to the track the newly
formed low will take on Wednesday and a change of just 25 miles will
have a drastic impact on the amount of rainfall we may see across
the North Country. The GFS, which is the eastern outlier once again,
keeps the main axis of moisture and frontogenetic forcing well to
our south and east as the surface low tracks east of the benchmark.
However, the new NAM. ECMWF and Canadian all show the surface low
tracking within benchmark which would put eastern and southern
Vermont in some of the strongest frontogenetic forcing which could
yield heavy banded precipitation structures. While it`s still a
little too far out to get an exact total on rainfall amounts
Wednesday and Wednesday night, it wouldn`t be surprising to see a
widespread inch to an inch and a half of rainfall with some
locations seeing upwards to 2 inches.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 328 AM EDT Monday...The steady rainfall will begin to come to
an end Thursday morning with a brief reprieve in rainfall possible
through the morning hours. However, rain showers will quickly
develop across the North Country by late morning as a decent
shortwave rotates along the western periphery of the upper level
trough. When you couple this upper level support with steepening low
level and mid level lapse rates, you get the perfect ingredients for
widespread shower activity. These showers will not be as intense as
those observed on Wednesday with the moisture axis now well offshore
with PWAT values only hovering around 0.5 to 0.6 inches.
Nevertheless, shower activity will continue through the evening
hours on Thursday before finally tapering off as we head into Friday
morning. It should be noted that the GFS has trended warmer with 850
and 925 mb temperatures Thursday afternoon and evening and has come
into better agreement with other deterministic guidance. Should this
pan out, chances for snow at higher elevations (above 2500 ft) will
be stunted with just some light accumulations possible at summit
level.

A reprieve from this wet and active pattern is expected to develop
on Friday with deep layer ridging becoming more pronounced throughout
the day. This ridging will help scour out any residual low to mid
clouds and moisture and allow for partly to mostly sunny skies to
develop by sunset. Friday will still be on the chilly side with 850
mb temperatures across the region near zero degrees C. Afternoon
high temperatures on Friday should only climb into the mid 40s to
lower 50s. This period of drier weather will continue through the
weekend with deep layer ridging continuing to reside across the east
coast. By Saturday, we will begin to see some weak warm air
advection in the low and mid levels which will help warm
temperatures back near or possibly above seasonal normals while
skies remain mostly clear. The next chance of precipitation
shouldn`t come until Monday with another frontal system expected to
impact the region.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Through 18Z Tuesday...VFR conditions expected through the
forecast period. BKN/OVC cigs generally in the 050-100 AGL range
expected into the 00-06Z time frame with mainly dry frontal
passage, trending mainly SKC by 12Z Tuesday as high pressure
builds atop the region. Winds mainly south to southwesterly and
occnly gusty at selected terminals through 21Z, trending
westerly and abating to 5 kts or less overnight, then light and
variable after 12Z Tuesday.

Outlook...

Tuesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday: VFR. Likely RA.
Wednesday Night: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Definite
RA, Likely SHRA.
Thursday: Mainly MVFR, with areas IFR possible. Likely SHRA.
Thursday Night: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Chance
SHRA.
Friday: Mainly MVFR, with local VFR possible. NO SIG WX.
Friday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. NO SIG WX.
Saturday: VFR. NO SIG WX.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMG
NEAR TERM...JMG
SHORT TERM...Clay
LONG TERM...Clay
AVIATION...JMG