213
FXUS61 KBTV 041956
AFDBTV
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
256 PM EST Sun Jan 4 2026
.SYNOPSIS...
Temperatures trend colder tonight with most locations ranging
from the single digits below zero to around minus fifteen
degrees. Flurries and light snow are expected Monday as a
weaker variety clipper system moves through the region. Then,
temperatures trend warmer mid to late week with two potentially
impactful systems bringing a mix wintry precipitation types to
northern New York and Vermont.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
* A persistent lake enhanced snow band has formed over portions
of Essex County, NY bringing localized snowfall amounts of 4
to 10 inches in the Moriah and Ticonderoga. This snowfall will
likely continue through this evening and much of the overnight
period - as long as light north winds prevail. Another 2 to 6
inches is possible for this area.
As of 253 PM EST Sunday...Ongoing light snow across portions of
the lower Champlain Valley and southern Vermont continue with a
stationary boundary draped along the Vermont/Massachusetts.
These are largely inconsequential, but will continue into the
evening as a weak trough moves along the boundary. Tonight,
clouds begin to clear with high pressure nosing in. The result
will be the formation of a strong radiation inversion and
temperatures dropping overnight. However, timing of cloud clear
will be tricky as satellite shows an area of clouds tracking
into northern NY and eventually Vermont. Best chances for very
frigid temperatures around and slightly below -15F will be
Franklin/Clinton Counties of New York and northeastern Vermont.
Any drainage winds that set up could produce a slightly wind
chill with values encroaching on -20 degrees. However, most
locations away from terrain will likely see calm winds as skies
clear.
A clipper style system is on tap for Monday/Monday night that is
expected to speed through the region. Moisture continue
continues to be low given cold conditions and lack of any real
moisture tap - it`ll totally rely on what it can advect in from
the Great Lakes region. As such, most spots will see on token
amounts less than 1 inch of snow with around 2 inches possible
for locations in southern Vermont, towards St Lawrence County,
and in the Adirondacks of Essex County, NY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 208 PM EST Sunday...After a much warmer day on Tuesday
than the past several, a fast moving storm system tracks up the
St. Lawrence Valley and brings a round of widespread
precipitation. There looks to be just enough cold air at the
onset for the precipitation to start out as snow for most
places, even in the valleys. The exception may be part of the
western Adirondacks where temperatures rise above freezing
quickly. Warm air advection will continue Tuesday night into
Wednesday and try to change the precipitation over to rain, but
a secondary low looks to quickly develop to the south and help
keep the colder air locked in place. While model uncertainty
remains, the most likely scenario is snow begins everywhere,
before changing into a wintry mix in most areas, though some
areas east of the Greens may remain all snow. Ice accumulations
under a tenth of an inch are possible, and one to two inches of
snow/sleet look to be reasonable. The overall amount of
precipitation is limited with this system, with only a couple
tenths of an inch of liquid equivalent at most, so regardless of
the precipitation types, the impacts should be on the minor
side compared to the wintry mess last week.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 208 PM EST Sunday...Behind the exiting low pressure system, the
airmass will be relatively warm. Temperatures look to rise into the
30s most places on Thursday. An stronger low pressure attempts to
pass to the west of the region on Friday into Saturday, sending the
region into the warm sector again. With a relatively warm antecedent
airmass, the precipitation looks to be mostly rain, until the center
of the low passes to the east and pushes the cold front through.
Some back end snow showers are possible on Sunday, particularly in
the mountains, but any significant snowfall accumulations look to be
unlikely. The relatively short duration of the thaw, combined with
temperatures and dew points looking to mostly stay in the 30s to
around 40, significant snowmelt or ice movement is not likely during
this event at this point. There is still somewhat significant model
disagreement with the track of the low, though there has been a
gradual convergence in a westerly storm track, and the time for a
pivot to a colder snowier solution is quickly running out. Behind
the low pressure, another extended stretch of cold temperatures with
chances for snow showers looks to begin.
&&
.AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Through 18Z Monday...VFR to MVFR low Great Lakes clouds are slowly
shifting east with pockets of intermittent clearing. At this time
most sites are VFR though ceilings are hovering around 2500-3500ft
agl. with a prevailing mid level deck around 5000-6000ft agl.
Pockets of scattered to broken have lead to intermittent MVFR
ceilings above 2000ft agl which look to continue for the next 2-3
hours or so before some clearing upstream near Ottawa tries to work
in. The most impacted terminals are at SLK/EFK where low level
moisture has yet to scour out with some HZ/BR and light snow which
has reduced vsbys at times to mainly 3-5SM at SLK and IFR 1-2SM at
EFK. GLAMP guidance suggests these showers should taper by 20-22Z.
Into this evening continued lower ceilings are progged by the HREF,
however, with winds shifting to light northerlies, ceilings will be
a challenging forecast with how long and how low these ceilings get.
Northerly winds could push the lower lake clouds south of the
region, but more variable winds would likely keep MVFR ceilings
around at BTV/PBG/SLK/EFK for most of the night. Current thinking
leans into the HREF model solution. Refinements will be made in the
00 and 06Z TAFs. There is good agreement that by 12Z, any low
ceilings will be pushed out with brief VFR conditions and southerly
light winds for all terminals. By 16-18Z, a clipper system will move
into the region from west to east with IFR snow and MVFR/IFR
ceilings.
Outlook...
Monday Night: VFR. Chance SN.
Tuesday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Slight chance
SHSN.
Tuesday Night: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Likely SN,
Likely FZRA.
Wednesday: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Chance RA,
Chance SN.
Wednesday Night: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. NO SIG WX.
Thursday: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. NO SIG WX.
Thursday Night: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Chance RA,
Chance SN.
Friday: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Chance RA.
&&
.EQUIPMENT...
NOAA Weather Radio station WXM-44, transmitting from Mt.
Ascutney, Vermont, on frequency 162.475 MHz is non-operational
at this time. NWS technicians have diagnosed the problem, but
repairs will likely not be able to occur for quite some time due
to circumstances beyond our control. Therefore, the time of
return to service is currently unknown. The following NOAA
Weather Radio transmitters may be able to provide service during
this outage: WWG 50 from Burke Mtn, VT at 162.425 MHz and WNG
546 from Hanover, NH at 162.525 MHz.
The Colchester Reef meteorological station is out of service.
This site is not serviced by the NWS and there isn`t an
estimated return to service at present. Use extra caution when
navigating the broad waters of Lake Champlain. Please contact us
if you observe winds significantly deviating from the
recreational forecast.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Boyd
NEAR TERM...Boyd
SHORT TERM...Myskowski
LONG TERM...Myskowski
AVIATION...Danzig
EQUIPMENT...Team BTV
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