848
FXUS61 KBTV 191720
AFDBTV
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
1220 PM EST Mon Jan 19 2026
.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
As of 151 AM EST Monday...No large changes to expected weather
conditions with lake effect snow and gusty winds expected to
impact portions of northern New York today and tonight. &&
.KEY MESSAGES...
As of 151 AM EST Monday...
1. Lake effect snow will impact southern St Lawrence county
today through Tuesday. Snow squalls will also be possible
Monday evening, especially across northern New York. Outside of
snow squalls, winds will remain gusty with periods of low
visibility expected.
2. An arctic airmass is expected to bring dangerously cold
temperatures to the region this weekend.
3. Snow showers and possible snow squalls may lead to hazardous
travel conditions at times, especially on Thursday.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
As of 151 AM EST Monday...
.KEY MESSAGE 1: Lake effect showers are beginning to ramp up
with more scattered showers becoming consolidated into a rough
band off the northeast end of Lake Ontario. These showers are
just extending into southern St Lawrence County as seen on radar
imagery. Shear aloft will keep these showers from becoming a
consolidated band through this afternoon. Additionally, there
will be a prefrontal trough passing through northern New York
this afternoon supporting snow squalls as the wind field
increases. Gusty generally will range 20-35 mph with up to 40
mph during squalls - whiteout conditions will be possible this
afternoon and evening. Some CAMs are showing potential for
convective showers tracking farther eastward into Vermont, but
it remains to be seen if these will be actualized. Should these
occur, bursts of snow and low visibility will be a concern. The
threat period for convective showers in northern New York and
potentially portions of Vermont will be between 2PM and 11 PM.
The expectation remains that a lake effect band will become
consolidated as flow goes unidirectional late this evening and
waver across southern St Lawrence County bringing 3 to 6 inches
in general with localized higher amounts possible. One change
was to increase snow ratios through tonight as temperatures fall
resulting in a fluffier character of snow; it`s feasible to see
periods of 25+:1 ratios tonight suggesting potential for
localized totals to approach 8 inches. With high ratios coupled
with increasing winds as deep low pressure tracks northwest of
the St Lawrence Valley, periods of low very low visibility will
be assured especially southeast of Highway 11 and Gouverneur in
southeastern St Lawrence County.
.KEY MESSAGE 2: An extremely cold airmass will move into the region
late this week into the weekend, bringing dangerously cold
temperatures and wind chills. Frigid conditions are expected Friday,
with the current forecasting showing highs in the teens and single
digits, with the much colder air expected to arrive towards the
weekend. The current NBM forecast has daytime high temperatures only
climbing into the single digits above and below zero during the day
Saturday, with overnight lows well below zero areawide, with
portions of the Adirondacks possible dropping to -20F overnight.
Northwesterly flow will make for even colder apparent temperatures.
While there will likely be some changes in the exact magnitude of
the cold and winds, the cold this weekend will be dangerous with
Cold Weather Advisories and/or Extreme Cold Warnings likely needed
as we get closer.
.KEY MESSAGE 3: A clipper system will push across the region
Wednesday night into Thursday, bringing some widespread chances for
snowfall. Northern New York will likely see the highest snowfall
accumulations due to enhancement off Lake Ontario, with the NBM
current showing a 25 to 50 percent chance of 2 or more inches while
Vermont will likely only see a dusting to a inch in most locations.
As the low continues to move eastward, an arctic boundary associated
with the system looks to push across the region during the day on
Thursday, which may allow for some heavier snow showers and possible
snow squalls. There is still some uncertainty in the exact timing of
the system and just how dynamic the front will be, but it currently
looks to be favorable for these heavier showers, making for some
slick and potentially hazardous travel on Thursday, so be sure to
stay tuned as we get closer. Beyond Thursday, flow aloft looks to
become more zonal with surface high pressure building into the
region so while there may be additional chances for precipitation, it
looks to be quite showery and organized at this time.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Through 18Z Tuesday...Aviation challenge is timing of intervals
of IFR/LIFR snow showers and embedded snow squalls through this
evening. Currently a mix of IFR at SLK to VFR elsewhere with
radar imagery showing scattered snow shower activity increasing
in areal coverage. The highest probability of frequent IFR
conditions or lower will be at SLK/MSS through 00z this evening
with 30% to 50% probability at EFK/MPV and 20-30% at PBG/BTV
and RUT. Have utilized a combination of PROB30 and TEMPO groups
to highlight periods/intervals of IFR conditions thru this
evening. Also, brisk south to southwest winds 15 to 25 knots
will create some areas of blowing/drifting snow, along with some
reduced sfc vis. Conditions improve to VFR with MVFR cigs in
the mountains by midnight with mostly VFR by sunrise on Tuesday.
Winds shift to the west/northwest by Tues morning.
Outlook...
Tuesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday: VFR. Chance SN.
Wednesday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SN.
Thursday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHSN.
Thursday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHSN.
Friday: VFR. Slight chance SHSN.
Friday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. NO SIG WX.
Saturday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
&&
.EQUIPMENT...
NOAA Weather Radio station WXM-44, transmitting from Mt.
Ascutney, Vermont, on frequency 162.475 MHz is non-operational
at this time. NWS technicians have diagnosed the problem, but
repairs will likely not be able to occur for quite some time due
to circumstances beyond our control. Therefore, the time of
return to service is currently unknown. The following NOAA
Weather Radio transmitters may be able to provide service during
this outage: WWG 50 from Burke Mtn, VT at 162.425 MHz and WNG
546 from Hanover, NH at 162.525 MHz.
The Colchester Reef meteorological station is out of service.
This site is not serviced by the NWS and there isn`t an
estimated return to service at present. Use extra caution when
navigating the broad waters of Lake Champlain. Please contact us
if you observe winds significantly deviating from the
recreational forecast.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...Winter Weather Advisory until 1 PM EST Tuesday for NYZ029-087.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Boyd/Kremer
AVIATION...Taber
EQUIPMENT...NWS BTV
|
