280
FXUS61 KBTV 180743
AFDBTV
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
243 AM EST Sun Jan 18 2026
.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
As of 211 AM EST Sunday...Chances for light accumulations of
snow have increased for southern Vermont this evening through
the overnight hours. 1 to 3 inches are generally expected today
with a few spots possibly totaling up to 4 inches. &&
.KEY MESSAGES...
As of 211 AM EST Sunday...
1. Light snow is expected for southern Vermont this evening and
overnight with snowfall totals generally ranging 1 to 3 inches.
Some minor impacts to travel is possible.
2. Winds will become strong out of the southwest on Monday
ahead of approaching cold front, with snow squalls possible
ahead of the cold front during the afternoon into the evening.
Winds will come off of Lake Ontario promoting lake enhanced
snow showers behind the trough. Long duration snowfall will
allow for accumulations of 3 to 9 inches over a 48 hour period
in southern St Lawrence County due to lake effect off of Lake
Ontario. Periods of moderate snow fall rates in the 0.5-1" per
hour range are possible Monday night. Winds may promote some
light drifting Monday night.
3. An unseasonably cold and unsettled pattern is expected for
next week with multiple chances for snow and temperatures
possibly sub-zero at times.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
As of 211 AM EST Sunday...
.KEY MESSAGE 1: CAMs are showing increasing chances of light
snow accumulations tonight in southern Vermont, particularly
across Rutland and Windsor counties southward. While global
guidance maintains a stance that energy associated with an
offshore low will be too far east to impact Vermont, mesocale
guidance has trended westward with primary features including a
stronger development of a surface low off the New England coast
that tracks within the benchmark. With this signal becoming more
amplified, have opted to move towards these solutions in the
forecast with light snow less than 1 inch for central/northern
Vermont and 1 to 3 inches of snowfall for Rutland/Windsor
counties; can`t rule out a few locations accumulating to 4
inches mainly in the southern Greens. NWS Albany has issued a
Winter Weather Advisory for Bennington/Windham Counties of
Vermont where marginally higher totals are possible. Speed and
trajectory of this system will keep totals on the lighter side
with precipitation exiting by daybreak Tuesday morning.
.KEY MESSAGE 2: A system passing just northwest of the St
Lawrence Valley will tighten the pressure gradient quite a bit
Monday through Monday night resulting in gusts 20-40 mph for
portions of northern New York. During the day on Monday, winds
will generally be gusting in the 20-30 mph range with a
prefrontal trough becoming the focal point for some snow
showers to develop. Model soundings show decent lapse rates and
modest instability that will likely result in showers with
squall-like intensity. Rapid reductions to visibilities are
likely during these showers. Monday night, the gradient will
tighten with gusts increasing into the 30-40mph range. As
southwest flow goes unidirectional off of Lake Ontario, lake
enhanced snow will increasing across southern St Lawrence
County. Current projections show periods of moderate snowfall
accumulations that could range in the 0.5-1" per hour range.
Coupled with winds, periods of whiteout are looking probable.
While the lake band is likely to waver a bit, it appears that
the snow showers could linger through Tuesday. While not
blockbuster amounts, 48 hour snowfall amounts could range 3 to 9
inches. Locations in Lewis County, NY will see much higher
totals, so those with travel plans along Highway 11 south of St
Lawrence County will want to take note. On a more minor note for
this event, there could be a period where flow aligns with
enough downwind transport to push some snowfall into central
Vermont. Totals would be light, but upslope could be an x-factor
should a focused band develop and push that far eastward.
.KEY MESSAGE 3: A cold and unsettled weather patter is expected
for much of the upcoming week as the region remains under the
influence of a large upper level trough. Temperatures by mid-
week will be near to below climatological normals, with highs in
the teens and 20s and overnight lows in the single digits above
and below zero. Even colder air looks to usher into the region
for the weekend in the wake of a cold front, making it feel
quite frigid. In addition to the colder pattern, there will be
several chances for snow showers late in the week with the
region remaining under cyclonic flow, but nothing overly
noteworthy is expected. A clipper system is expected to pass
across the region Wednesday night into Thursday, bringing more
widespread snow showers.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Through 06Z Monday...Primarily VFR condition prevail across the
region, with the exception on some intermittent MVFR and IFR at
KSLK due to snow showers across the area which are only
expected for the next few hours. VFR conditions are expected to
prevail for most of the forecast period, with some snow showers
possible at KRUT during the afternoon, but confidence is too low
to include in the forecast at this time. Ceilings are expected
to trend lower after 00Z or so, with more widespread MVFR
possible outside of the forecast period. South to southwest
winds will continue, with some gusts up to 30 knots possible at
KMSS. Winds will become light and variable and/or northwesterly
this afternoon, which will aide in the development of MVFR
ceilings.
Outlook...
Martin Luther King Jr Day: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible.
Chance SHSN.
Monday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHSN.
Tuesday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday: VFR. Chance SN.
Wednesday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR and IFR possible.
Likely SN, Chance SHSN.
Thursday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHSN.
&&
.EQUIPMENT...
NOAA Weather Radio station WXM-44, transmitting from Mt.
Ascutney, Vermont, on frequency 162.475 MHz is non-operational
at this time. NWS technicians have diagnosed the problem, but
repairs will likely not be able to occur for quite some time due
to circumstances beyond our control. Therefore, the time of
return to service is currently unknown. The following NOAA
Weather Radio transmitters may be able to provide service during
this outage: WWG 50 from Burke Mtn, VT at 162.425 MHz and WNG
546 from Hanover, NH at 162.525 MHz.
The Colchester Reef meteorological station is out of service.
This site is not serviced by the NWS and there isn`t an
estimated return to service at present. Use extra caution when
navigating the broad waters of Lake Champlain. Please contact us
if you observe winds significantly deviating from the
recreational forecast.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Boyd/Kremer
AVIATION...Kremer
EQUIPMENT...NWS BTV
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