635
FXUS61 KBTV 151642
AFDBTV
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
1142 AM EST Sun Feb 15 2026
.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
As of 243 AM EST Sunday...
Chance for light snow have increased Monday night, though only minor
snowfall accumulations are expected. Hazardous weather is not
anticipated through the next 5-7 days.
&&
.KEY MESSAGES...
As of 243 AM EST Sunday...
1. A cold front early this morning will bring briefly colder air
across the North Country for today.
2. Very light snow is expected early Monday morning and again
early Tuesday morning. Little overall travel impacts expected.
3. Temperatures trend back above normal Tuesday and generally
remain above normal into next weekend, with light precipitation
events possible.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
As of 243 AM EST Sunday...
KEY MESSAGE 1: A shallow cold front moving southward across our
region during the pre-dawn hours is ushering in colder air and a
few pre-dawn snow flurries. IR satellite imagery upstream
indicates that skies should gradually clear from north-to-south
toward daybreak. After seeing valley highs in the low-mid 30s on
Saturday (and above freezing for the first time in 22 days at
BTV), low-level cold air advection will result in high
temperatures 5-10 degrees cooler this afternoon, despite ample
sunshine. Overall expecting tranquil weather conditions, and the
north winds will generally subside to 5 mph or less by late
this morning.
KEY MESSAGE 2: A fast west-northwest flow will continue across
the northern Great Lakes into the Northeast over the next couple
of days. An embedded shortwave trough should bring increasing
clouds and light stratiform snowfall to our region during the
06-12Z period early Monday morning. The NAM3 solution is more
bullish on QPF associated with this feature than the HRRR. Have
stayed closer to the HRRR based on continuity, with the idea of
a quick dusting to 1" possible before dawn on Monday. Travel
impacts should be relatively minor, and any lingering light snow
should exit ewd into NH by 13Z.
Similarly, another northern-stream shortwave trough is expected
to affect the North Country between 06-12Z Tuesday morning.
Included additional chances for light snow, with a coating to 2"
possible in spots. Again, winter travel impacts should be
relatively minor. With high temperatures expected in the upper
30s to lower 40s for Tuesday afternoon, any snow covered roads
should rapidly improve toward mid-late morning.
KEY MESSAGE 3: Considerable spread exists in the 00Z NWP
guidance suite, with possible high latitude block developing
across Quebec into James/Hudson Bay for the mid-late week period.
As a result, there is considerable uncertainty whether a system
across the Ohio Valley can spread precipitation newd into the
North Country for late Wednesday into Wednesday night. The
official forecast most closely reflects the 00Z ECMWF, with WAA
associated precipitation in the form of a rain/snow mix moving
from SW-NE into much of the region very late Wednesday and
continuing into Wednesday night (60-70% PoPs). This could yield
winter travel impacts, though it is notable that the 00Z GFS and
a few other models keep this precipitation to our south with
stronger blocking. Currently expecting highs into the mid-upper
30s for Wed/Thu, though stronger blocking would likely yield
colder temperatures, which remain a possibility during the
Wed/Thu time frame.
A more significant 700-500mb trough digging across the central
U.S. may result in additional precipitation chances for Friday
into Saturday, with a frontal wave in the Ohio Valley possibly
moving newd into NY/New England toward the end of the week. With
a lot of spread in the GEFS members, PoPs are in the 40-50%
range for the late week system at this time. A rain/snow mix is
possible, but will await better predictability with later model
runs to outline possible scenarios for the North Country.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Through 18Z Monday...VFR conditions thru 06z Monday with high
clouds continuing to advance and eventually lower in advance of
weak mid-level shortwave. Light snow/flurries after 06Z at most
of the TAF sites, except possible 2SM -SN at KSLK at times. Aft
12z...clouds hanging on but pcpn ending.
Light north winds during the daylight hrs will shift light
south around 5kts for tonight and then 5-10 kts for Monday.
Outlook...
Washingtons Birthday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. NO
SIG WX.
Monday Night: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. Chance SHSN.
Tuesday: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Chance SHSN,
Chance SHRA.
Tuesday Night: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Likely RA, Chance
SN.
Wednesday Night: VFR. Chance SN.
Thursday: VFR. Chance SN.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...
AVIATION...SLW
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