696
FXUS61 KBTV 180548
AFDBTV
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
148 AM EDT Sat Oct 18 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
Today will feature a mix of sun and clouds, along with the start of
a warming trend which will continue through the weekend, featuring
late-summerlike temperatures on Sunday along with breezy conditions.
Widespread rain Sunday night into Monday will follow, along with a
return to cooler and cloudier conditions. Most of the showers next
week will be light with little impact on ongoing drought conditions,
but fire weather concerns will be limited.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 148 AM EDT Saturday...Ridging will continue to shift eastward
across the region today into tonight, keeping the weather dry. A
weak warm front lifts up to our west in the meantime, leading to
mainly just increased clouds, especially over northern NY. Some
light returns have been noted on radar already this morning, but
given the dry airmass that`s in place, don`t anticipate much
precipitation, perhaps just a few sprinkles at most. Light and
variable winds will pick up a bit out of the south late in the day
and overnight as a low-level jet moves over the region. After a
chilly start to the day, expect afternoon highs to top out in the
60s in most spots. The increasing south flow overnight will limit
cooling, so don`t anticipate tonight to be as cold as the past
couple of nights. Lows will mainly in the 40s, though some of the
more sheltered locations east of the Greens and in the Adirondacks
could dip into the upper 30s.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 148 AM EDT Saturday...The ridge axis will push to our east on
Sunday, setting us up for a mild and breezy day ahead of a low
pressure system incoming from the west. It`s a favorable setup for
gusty south to southeast winds channeling under a low inversion.
Gusts of 30 to 35 mph will be possible in the Champlain Valley,
along with the northwestern slopes of the Adirondacks and Greens,
with localized spots perhaps approaching 40 mph at times. Gusts
should ramp up during the daylight hours Sunday, but they could
persist right through Sunday night, especially for areas from the
Champlain Valley eastward as rain will be slow to arrive there (more
on this below). While moisture will gradually increase through the
day, near critical fire conditions are expected, and any fires that
start could quickly become difficult to control.
The other impact from the increasing south flow will be warm
temperatures, more typical of late summer in some locations rather
than mid fall. The St Lawrence Valley in particular will be quite
mild owing to downsloping off the Adirondacks; near record highs are
expected as temperatures will warm well into the 70s and perhaps
close to 80F. Elsewhere, it won`t be quite as warm but still very
pleasant with highs generally in the mid 60s to low/mid 70s.
The parent low pressure will slide by well to our north Sunday night
into Monday, dragging a cold front along in its wake. Meanwhile, the
upper trough will dig into the Great Lakes and become negatively
tilted, eventually forming a closed low nearly directly overhead by
Monday afternoon. The aforementioned south/southeast flow will
advect moisture northward ahead of the incoming front and upper
trough, and expect a swath of rain to push eastward in response.
Given the dry airmass that will be in place, it will take a while
for the column to moisten up enough to allow precipitation to reach
the ground, but expect rain to finally move into northern NY near or
shortly after midnight and then spread eastward into VT by daybreak
Monday. Lows will be in the mid 40s to mid 50s.
The frontal boundary will slow on Monday as a triple-point low
develops in response to the deepening upper trough overhead.
Widespread showers are expected for much of the day, though there
may be a bit of a break mid-late afternoon with a bit of drier air
wrapping into the developing surface low. The rain could be moderate
to briefly heavy at times. Given the strong upper low, a few rumbles
of thunder will be possible, though expected coverage (or lack
thereof) was not enough to include the mention of thunderstorms in
the forecast at this time. Winds should abate somewhat with the
steadier precipitation, but gusts in excess of 25 mph will be
possible, especially if we do see any drier breaks. Rainfall totals
through Monday evening will range from a quarter to half inch over
the Northeast Kingdom to a half inch to 1.25 inch elsewhere; the
highest totals will be over the High Peaks and along the spine of
the central/southern Greens. With ample cloud cover and the cold
pool aloft, Monday will be quite a bit colder than Sunday, though
highs will be in the upper 50s to mid 60s, which is still near to
slightly above normal.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 148 AM EDT Saturday...Continued shower activity is expected
Monday night into Tuesday morning as dynamic upper low embedded in a
negative tilt trough shifts overhead. The cold core of the system
will be overhead with continued convergence and abundant moisture
allowing for an additional few hundredths to 0.20". There`s some
disagreement on how quickly the system lifts north, but by midday
Tuesday, it should be well north with showers scattering out,
especially over Vermont. A larger upper low will be right on the
heels of the first departing system. It too will also begin to
acquire a negative tilt. An embedded vort max appears likely to
round the second upper low as it reaches the region. The negative
tilt will allow a combined plume of Gulf and Atlantic moisture to
meet along a stretched out frontal axis. The air mass behind the
second system has sub-540dam 1000- 500mb thicknesses swinging
southwards while a strongly occluded front approaches from a parent
low over the Great Lakes. Secondary cyclogenesis appears likely
against the strong baroclinic contrast between the air mass surging
south and the warm Gulf Stream waters. The vort will provide
additional support for height falls that should allow the low to
take off to the north alongside that upper vort with a surge of
rain.
After that, the upper low begins to move towards the Gulf of St.
Lawrence. As mentioned, we will have sub-540dam thicknesses as the
system pulls away, and the 925mb 0 isotherm appears likely to
approach our region Thursday into Friday in the cool northwesterly
flow. Mountain snow is looking quite likely with some scenarios
suggesting the freezing level could drop to about 1500 foot
elevation. But looking across the spectrum of scenarios, it looks
like about 2500 ft is the most likely. That`s still enough for some
wet snow atop mountain summits by Thursday. High pressure will begin
to nose in next weekend.
We`ll be glad to have several opportunities for rain and to get a
little bit of snow started on the mountains! All told, probabilistic
data suggests additional rains of a quarter and a half inch, mainly
mitigated by the relative fast nature of flow. Temperatures will be
fairly close to climatological norms in the 50s during the day with
a range of upper 20s to lower 40s throughout the extended.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Through 06Z Sunday...Light, terrain driven winds prevail, at the
moment, with clouds around 6000-12000 ft agl shifting southeast
ahead of a mid-level ridge axis. Light radar returns are evident
over northern New York, but scans suggest most precipitation is not
falling below 2000 ft agl, and it appears unlikely for much to reach
the surface, if any. Clouds and virga will slide east into Vermont
beyond 10z. KMPV may have a quick moment with fog. High res guidance
highlights fog just outside the terminal, and they are likely to
pass their crossover temperature, which indicates potential for
radiation fog. It will depend some on arrival time of the mid level
clouds, and so for now, have noted VCFG from 10z to 12z with a 3SM
TEMPO. South to southeast winds, except northeast for KMSS, will
build during the day at 3 to 8 knots, and will continue or increase
even beyond 06z Sunday.
Outlook...
Sunday: VFR. Windy with gusts to 30 kt. Chance SHRA.
Sunday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA.
Monday: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Likely SHRA.
Monday Night: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. Chance SHRA.
Tuesday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance SHRA.
Tuesday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Likely SHRA.
Wednesday: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. Likely SHRA.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...Frost Advisory until 9 AM EDT this morning for VTZ001-002-005-
009.
NY...Frost Advisory until 9 AM EDT this morning for NYZ028-035.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Hastings
NEAR TERM...Hastings
SHORT TERM...Hastings
LONG TERM...Haynes
AVIATION...Haynes
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