157
FXUS61 KBTV 160704
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
204 AM EST Fri Jan 16 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
As of 153 AM EST Friday...No significant changes have been made
to the forecast.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
As of 153 AM EST Friday...

1. Cold temperatures and brisk westerly winds will make for bitterly
cold wind chills this morning, with some lingering snow showers
gradually tapering off.

2. A weak system will bring precipitation and light snow
accumulations to the region late Friday night into Saturday, which
may make for slippery travel, especially across southern Vermont.

3. An unseasonably cold and unsettled pattern looks to continue next
week with multiple chances for snow, but no system looks overly
significant or impactful.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
As of 153 AM EST Friday...

.KEY MESSAGE 1: Some snow showers continue to linger across the
region this morning, with a particularly persistent band across
portions of the Champlain Valley. These showers will continue to
taper off as the morning progresses, with a relatively dry afternoon
expected. Temperatures this morning will be on the cold side,
especially after the warmth earlier this week, with temperatures
dropping into the single digits and low teens, with some of the
colder spots dipping below zero. Apparent temperatures will
generally be below zero this morning, generally -5F to -15F, with
the summits closer nearing -30F. Be sure to dress appropriately for
the cold, especially if you`ll be outside this morning.

.KEY MESSAGE 2: A weak system will pass across the region late
tonight into tomorrow, bringing chances for precipitation and
additional snowfall to the region, as well as slightly warmer
temperatures with some warm air advection. Daytime highs on Saturday
look to climb into the 30s, which is nearly 10 to 15 degrees warmer
than the high temperatures expected today. While a light dusting or
so is possible everywhere, southern Vermont and the spine of the
Green Mountains will be the most likely to see a few inches of snow.
Current guidance currently supports sub-advisory snowfall amounts
across the forecast area, with the exception of some of the higher
terrain, but we will continue to monitor as we get closer.

.KEY MESSAGE 3: Cool temperatures and unsettled weather will return
to the region for next week, with several chances for precipitation
possible. A few shortwaves passing across the region will be able to
bring some chances for snow across northern New York and the Green
Mountains. Guidance supports an impressive period of lake effect
snow early next week, primarily to our south, but some higher snow
accumulations will be possible across St. Lawrence County and
portions of the Adirondacks and the band waffles northward.
Unseasonably cold temperatures will be possible this week,
especially on Tuesday where daytime highs will only be in the single
digits and teens with overnight lows dropping near or below zero got
most of the area.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Through 06Z Saturday...Upper low continues to spin directly over
the Champlain Valley allowing for some snow showers to continue
in the vicinity of BTV. These showers should sink southward over
the next few hours, but could produce MVFR conditions at times
through 12Z. RUT is also experiencing these showers with
conditions mainly MVFR through 10Z. MSS/SLK could see a few
showers as well with backside convergence squeezing out some
snow showers 06-12Z. General trend otherwise will be for
showers to taper down with VFR anticipated for much of the day
time hours. Northwesterly flow pattern will shift southwesterly
and become lighter through the forecast period. Main wind
related threat will be at SLK where speeds aloft create some
LLWS conditions 12-18Z. The next chances of some
isolated/scattered showers will come after 00Z for MSS/SLK.



Outlook...

Saturday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance SN.
Saturday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance SN.
Sunday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight chance SHSN.
Sunday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHSN.
Martin Luther King Jr Day: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible.
Chance SHSN.
Monday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHSN.
Tuesday: VFR. NO SIG WX.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
NOAA Weather Radio station WXM-44, transmitting from Mt.
Ascutney, Vermont, on frequency 162.475 MHz is non-operational
at this time. NWS technicians have diagnosed the problem, but
repairs will likely not be able to occur for quite some time due
to circumstances beyond our control. Therefore, the time of
return to service is currently unknown. The following NOAA
Weather Radio transmitters may be able to provide service during
this outage: WWG 50 from Burke Mtn, VT at 162.425 MHz and WNG
546 from Hanover, NH at 162.525 MHz.

The Colchester Reef meteorological station is out of service.
This site is not serviced by the NWS and there isn`t an
estimated return to service at present. Use extra caution when
navigating the broad waters of Lake Champlain. Please contact us
if you observe winds significantly deviating from the
recreational forecast.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Kremer
AVIATION...Boyd
EQUIPMENT...NWS BTV