000
FXUS61 KBTV 190204
AFDBTV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Burlington VT
1004 PM EDT Mon Mar 18 2019
.SYNOPSIS...
Quiet and seasonably cool weather continues through Tuesday
night as surface high pressure settles atop the region.
Temperatures moderate by Wednesday into Friday as a surface
front and developing offshore low pressure bring renewed chances
for rain and snow shower activity.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 1000 PM EDT Monday...Updated forecast to increase clouds
and mention some flurries over the dacks/slv per latest radar
trends. Weak short wave of course in the northwest flow aloft is
producing just enough lift with lingering mid level moisture to
cause some light returns on the radar. Otherwise, did increase
hourly temps by 4 to 10 degrees in northern NY to better match
crnt obs, as slk is still at 21F with overcast skies. However,
similar to last night, when clouds dissipate temps will jump
quickly to near zero again. Rest of fcst in good shape.
Persistence the name of the game over the next 42 hours as
strong surface high pressure builds across the northeastern
third of the nation leading to quiet weather conditions.
Shallow, instability- driven cumulus will produce a scattered
mountain flurry here or there through sunset this evening, and
again on Tuesday. Otherwise dry weather remains in the forecast
under clear to partly cloudy skies and light winds. Temperatures
to remain seasonably cold, bottoming out from 10 to 18 above in
the broad valleys overnight while higher terrain ranges from 5
below to 10 above. Highs on Tuesday just a tad warmer than today
(30s) followed by teens to lower 20s Tuesday night with some
variability.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
As of 300 PM EDT Monday...Shortwave ridging will bring a fairly
quiet period of weather to the North Country during the
daylight hours on Wednesday. Skies will gradually increase in
cloud coverage as flow aloft begins to switch to the southwest
which will allow some moisture to advect into the region. As
this happens, temperatures aloft will warm as well which will
result in temperatures warming slightly above normal values with
readings in the 40s across our forecast area. Conditions will
begin to deteriorate late Wednesday night as a sharpening upper
level trough dives south toward New England. This will bring
some rain and snow showers into North New York, mainly the St.
Lawrence Valley, prior to sunrise heading into Thursday.
Shower activity will overspread the North Country Thursday with a
mix of rain and snow expected throughout the day. Based on the
timing of the CAA associated with both a frontal passage and a
switch to northwesterly flow aloft, Thursday should still be an
overall seasonable day with temperatures generally climbing into the
low to mid 40s. During the morning hours, a 40 kt jet, give or take
a couple knots, will be in place across the North Country which
would initially limit rain/snow in the Champlain Valley with
downsloping winds helping to limit moisture. However, by Thursday
afternoon this jet will exit eastward and allow the Champlain Valley
to get in on some of the rain/snow action. Overall snowfall amounts
would be very minor on Thursday with little to no snow accumulation
in the Champlain and St. Lawrence Valleys with up to an inch
possible elsewhere.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 300 PM EDT Monday...Models continue to diverge on the
potential of a coastal low developing west of benchmark late
Thursday night into Friday morning. This is completely different
than the runs yesterday which yields some uncertainty to the
extended forecast. Looking at both NAEFS and GEFS members, most
perturbations show a feature developing near benchmark and
quickly sliding east. However, some perturbations and
deterministic runs of the FV3 and ECMWF show this feature
curling back in near Cape Cod which could bring significant
snowfall to the Green Mountains. At this time, this appears to
be the least likely scenario with the Canadian, SREF and GFS all
showing a more progressive system sliding eastward.
Nevertheless, it looks like some snow showers will be possible
on Friday as the trough axis swings through the region with a
nice shortwave tracking through the region. Snow accumulations
once again appear very minor with limited moisture to work with.
This weekend could be very nice, especially if the GFS, SREF and
Canadian models end up closer to the low track on Friday. As it
stands, it looks like the trough from Thursday and Friday will be
very progressive and quickly slide off to the east with high
amplitude ridging building into the region for the weekend. This
would yield clearing skies with seasonably cool temperatures on
Saturday followed by near normal temperatures and sunny skies of
Sunday. The period of nice weather would likely continue into Monday
with the chance for some isolated showers during the afternoon hours
as we remain under northwesterly flow aloft.
&&
.AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Through 00Z Wednesday...VFR conditions are expected throughout
the period. Winds will become light and variable tonight under
surface high pressure. Skies will be FEW to BKN with ceilings
generally 5000 to 10000ft AGL. After sunrise, winds become west
to northwesterly at 5 to 10 knots. A few scattered flurries will
be possible across higher terrain, mainly across the
Adirondacks near KSLK.
Outlook...
Tuesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday Night: VFR. Chance SHSN, Chance SHRA.
Thursday: Mainly MVFR and IFR, with areas VFR possible. Chance
SHRA, Likely SHSN.
Thursday Night: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Chance
SHSN, Chance SHRA.
Friday: VFR/MVFR conditions possible. Chance SHRA, Chance SHSN.
Friday Night: VFR. Chance SHSN.
Saturday: VFR. Slight chance SHSN.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JMG
NEAR TERM...JMG/Taber
SHORT TERM...Clay
LONG TERM...Clay
AVIATION...Haynes
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