284
FXUS61 KBTV 100638
AFDBTV
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
138 AM EST Wed Dec 10 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
Widespread light to moderate snowfall will occur today into tonight,
with the heaviest rates between 10 AM and 4 PM. Upslope snow showers
will develop tonight and continue through Thursday night. Strong
winds will also continue into Friday. The colder and active pattern
will persist into next week with a few additional chances for snow,
though no big snowstorms are expected.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 131 AM EST Wednesday...An area of warm air advection aloft has
moved through overnight, bringing some light snowfall. While most
areas did not see much in the way of accumulations, parts of
northern New York saw 1-2 inches. A break in the snow will occur
late in the night and early this morning, except in parts of St.
Lawrence County where lake effect snow showers will persist. A quick
moving clipper will track up the St. Lawrence Valley today into
tonight, bringing light to moderate snow. Widespread snow develops
mid to late morning, continuing into the evening. The heaviest rates
will be between 10 AM and 4 PM, where they could reach around an
inch an hour at times. A combination of a developing synoptic dry
slot and downsloping will cause the steady precipitation to end in
the Champlain and Connecticut valleys in the afternoon. While
temperatures at low elevations will rise into the lower to mid 30s,
steep lapse rates should keep the precipitation mostly snow. A
slightly farther south storm track among some of the guidance,
bringing the center of the low across the northern Adirondacks and
into Quebec, has led to some higher totals in the St. Lawrence
Valley due to it now being more on the north and west side of the
low in those cases. Overall, 3-7 inches are expected in most places,
except 1-3 in the Champlain and Connecticut valleys. As the center
of the low passes to the northeast tonight, westerly to
northwesterly flow will develop, kicking off an upslope snow event
for the typical areas. Winds will be strong at times, particularly
in the Champlain Valley this morning before precipitation arrives.
Gusts will reach 25-40 mph there.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 131 AM EST Wednesday...The low slows down as it moves through
Atlantic Canada and Quebec Thursday into Friday, and it will
continue the west to northwest upslope snow through Thursday night.
Flow becomes quite unblocked Thursday and Thursday night, leading to
the highest accumulations along and east of the summits. Strong
winds will help transport this snow even farther downwind. Several
inches are expected in the northern Greens and northern Adirondacks.
The Champlain Valley and western slopes will likely not see much at
all during this period. The DGZ appears to be in the unsaturated
boundary layer for awhile on Thursday, so this will likely help
limit snow ratios. The deep moisture should exit Friday morning, but
shallower moisture may keep clouds and a few snow showers around
through Friday, though any accumulations would be minimal during
this time. Strong gradient winds will continue on Thursday and
Friday, aided by a strong surface low and mixing from cold air
advection. Gusts between 20 to 35 mph are possible. While
temperatures will not be overly cold during this period, the strong
winds will keep wind chills in the single digits and teens during
the days.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 131 AM EST Wednesday...Mountain snow showers persist into the
upcoming weekend with another arctic blast likely late Sunday into
early next week, before a potential pattern change by the middle of
next week. Initially weak sfc high pres is overhead on Friday with
partly sunny skies and cool temps. Next clipper like system arrives
late Saturday, as mid/upper lvl trof prevails acrs the NE CONUS thru
Monday, with weak embedded short waves. These features combined with
favorable upslope flow and thermal dynamics support the idea of
likely accumulating snowfall in the mtns late Sat thru Sunday. Given
the light snowfall over a 24 to 48 hour window, impacts look to be
minor and mostly confined to the mtns. In addition, cold thermal
profiles suggest high fluff factor. Northerly flow at 925mb thru
700mb on Sunday/Sunday night, combined with progged 850mb temps in
the -16C to -18C range, does support the idea of some lake enhanced
snow showers off Lake Champlain with some light accumulation
possible on the eastern side of the CPV. As sfc high pres builds
directly overhead by 12z Monday, expect much below normal temps with
another very cold night likely on Monday night, with clear skies and
light winds. Have trended toward the cooler guidance which supports
many areas below 0F again. However, if high pres is faster/slower
and length of light winds/clear skies is limited, warmer lows would
be possible on Monday night, but given trends lately have gone on
the colder side, especially with additional snowfall. In addition,
highs may struggle in the single digits and teens both Sunday and
Monday, before warming back closer to normal by the middle of next
week. Still plenty of uncertainty on timing of potential pattern
change and how warm temps could climb.
&&
.AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Through 06Z Thursday...Very active with changeable conditions
expected at all taf sites over the next 12 to 24 hours. Crntly a
mix of VFR and MVFR with some IFR vis in the heavier snow
showers associated with warm front. This activity will move away
from our taf sites by 09z. Additional widespread snow will
develop between 12z-15z this morning with vis quickly becoming
IFR at most sites by 15z with periods of LIFR vis likely between
15z and 21z today in moderate snow with MVFR cigs. As southwest
winds develop expect improving vis/cigs at PBG/BTV associated
with downslope shadowing, while rest of our sites continue with
IFR/LIFR conditions thru 00z. The steadier snow will taper off
from west to east on Weds evening, with lingering IFR cigs/vis
likely at MPV/SLK/MSS and EFK, while a mix of IFR/MVFR is
expected at BTV/PBG and RUT. Winds will be gusty at times with
areas of blowing snow likely, especially where gusts over 25
knots occur. A wind shift to the west/northwest is anticipated
toward 00z from west to east acrs our taf sites.
Currently not receiving observations from EFK, so included
amend not sked.
Outlook...
Thursday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance SHSN.
Thursday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance
SHSN.
Friday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Friday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. NO SIG WX.
Saturday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHSN.
Saturday Night: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. Chance
SHSN.
Sunday: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Chance SHSN.
&&
.MARINE...
A Lake Wind Advisory is en effect and it will likely continue
through today. Southerly winds between 20-30 KTs will occur,
with higher gusts. Waves are expected to be in the 3-6 foot
range. Winds will likely decrease for a period late morning and
early afternoon as a period of steady snow moves through and
limits mixing. Winds will likely pick back up to 15-25 KTs in
the afternoon. Another brief lowering of winds is possible
tonight as they become westerly, but they will pick up again in
the 15-25 KT range by tomorrow afternoon as they become more
northwesterly. Waves are expected to be in the 2-5 foot range
tomorrow.
&&
.EQUIPMENT...
NOAA Weather Radio station WXM-44, transmitting from Mt.
Ascutney, Vermont, on frequency 162.475 MHz is non-operational
at this time. NWS technicians have diagnosed the problem, but
repairs will likely not be able to occur for quite some time due
to circumstances beyond our control. Therefore, the time of
return to service is currently unknown. The following NOAA
Weather Radio transmitters may be able to provide service during
this outage: WWG 50 from Burke Mtn, VT at 162.425 MHz and WNG
546 from Hanover, NH at 162.525 MHz.
Equipment malfunctions at the Colchester Reef meteorological
station will likely leave it inoperable for an extended period
of time. This site is not serviced by the NWS. Technicians do
not currently have an estimated return to service for this
station. Use extra caution when navigating the broad waters of
Lake Champlain, and please contact us if you observe winds
significantly deviating from the forecast.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...Winter Weather Advisory from 7 AM this morning to 1 AM EST
Thursday for VTZ003-004-006>008-010-011-016>020.
NY...Winter Weather Advisory from 7 AM this morning to 7 AM EST
Thursday for NYZ026-027-029-030-034-087.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Myskowski
NEAR TERM...Myskowski
SHORT TERM...Myskowski
LONG TERM...Taber
AVIATION...Taber
MARINE...BTV
EQUIPMENT...Team BTV
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