627
FXUS61 KBTV 182326
AFDBTV
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
726 PM EDT Wed Mar 18 2026
.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
As of 227 PM EDT Wednesday...
No significant changes were made with this forecast.
&&
.KEY MESSAGES...
As of 227 PM EDT Wednesday...
1. Trending warmer with low chances for light rain and snow
showers through Thursday.
2. A stronger system will bring additional precipitation
chances later Friday into Saturday. However, there is considerable
uncertainty due to extreme differences in model solutions,
especially for Saturday.
3. Widespread snow is possible Sunday night, especially for
southern portions of the area; otherwise, mainly dry conditions
and below normal temperatures will persist for much of next week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
As of 227 PM EDT Wednesday...
KEY MESSAGE 1: It was a cool but fairly pleasant day today thanks to
high pressure drifting across the region. This ridge will continue
its eastward trek tonight and Thursday. Meanwhile, low pressure will
slide eastward across Ontario and Quebec, remaining well north of
the international border. Flow will turn to the south/southwest
between these two features, allowing temperatures to moderate
compared to the colder conditions we had over the past couple of
days. Tonight will be more seasonable with lows in the mid teens to
mid 20s, with just increasing clouds overnight.
The low pressure moving by well to our north will drag a weak
front/surface trough across our area during the day Thursday. Both
forcing and moisture will be minimal as this boundary moves through,
but it should be enough to spark a few showers. While highs will be
in the mid 30s to low 40s, it will remain dry at lower levels.
Therefore, should any showers develop, expect precipitation would
fall mainly as snow as the column wet bulbs down. Still, the wider
valleys will see little, if any, precipitation, while higher
elevations may pick up a few tenths of an inch of accumulation. Any
precipitation will linger into the evening, then dissipate
overnight.
KEY MESSAGE 2: Another round of showers is expected for Friday into
Friday night, this time due to a stronger clipper low. There will be
better moisture with this system, so we`re more confident in showers
later Friday into Friday night. However, there`s still uncertainty
in the details as models are still showing little consensus on the
track of the low, with some staying north or along the international
border, while others are a bit more southern, keeping the low center
just to our west and south. This has implications with temperatures
for temperatures and precipitation type on Friday and Friday night,
with potential for valley rain and mountain rain/snow. Things become
even more uncertain on Saturday, with the NAM much more aggressive
in bringing a closed upper low dipping along the international
border. The result would be a strengthening surface low, with gusty
winds Friday and Saturday, and another round of snow showers,
perhaps even squalls, on Saturday. This is an outlier however, with
most other models showing just an open shortwave scooting by on
Friday/Friday night, with drying conditions on Saturday. The NAM
solution would be more impactful for sure, so didn`t want to totally
discount it at this point. Have therefore gone with a blend of the
deterministic models for winds, PoPs, and temperatures to give an
middle-of-the-road forecast for now. Hopefully later model runs will
give a clearer picture moving forward.
KEY MESSAGE 3: No significant storms are expected from Sunday through
Wednesday at this time. In fact, one of the only anomalous signals
in the large scale pattern is higher than typical surface pressure
on Tuesday when precipitation chances are particularly low.
Generally looks like good sugaring weather, with below freezing
temperatures at night and high temperatures reaching at least a few
to several degrees above freezing during the day.
That being said, the low chance (roughly 20-35%) of precipitation on
Sunday-Sunday night is based on large spread. While a dry forecast
is favored by much of our forecast guidance (which would lead to
higher temperatures), a smaller group of guidance shows a wave of
low pressure passing to our south, moving eastward along a quasi-
stationary front. This idea is preferred by the GEFS, with 60% of
its members fitting into this pattern, and consistent with the 12Z
GFS run. The mean snowfall, assuming a 10:1 snow-to-liquid ratio is
about 3 to 5 inches, with the higher amounts currently centered just
south of our forecast area. 90th percentile snowfall, or a
reasonable high end amount, is more in the 6 to 12 inch range. Given
the time of year and marginal cold, snow could be on the wet side.
The large scale upper-level pattern is fairly zonal, so it would be
a relatively short duration snowstorm of up to 12 hours. Will note
run-to-run shifts north and south are typically large, so even if
this wave of low pressure does materialize, stay tuned to the
forecast as this type of system is hard to pin down until we`re
within a couple days of the event.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Through 00Z Friday...Surface high pressure will result in VFR
conditions with light terrain driven winds under 5 knots through
12z Thursday. As the next weak areas of low pressure and
associated warm front approach our TAF sites clouds will
increase and lower on Thursday with some MVFR cigs possible at
MSS/SLK and EFK after 18z, along with a few light rain or snow
showers. Winds will increase from the south/southwest at 5 to 10
knots with localized gusts up to 20 knots possible.
Outlook...
Thursday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight
chance SHSN.
Friday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance SHRA.
Friday Night: Mainly MVFR, with local VFR possible. Likely SHRA,
Chance SHSN.
Saturday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance SHRA,
Chance SHSN.
Saturday Night: VFR. Chance RA, Chance SN.
Sunday: Mainly IFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance RA, Chance
SN.
Sunday Night: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. Slight chance
SN.
Monday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. NO SIG WX.
&&
.EQUIPMENT...
The Colchester Reef meteorological station is out of service.
This site is not serviced by the NWS and there isn`t an
estimated return to service at present. Please contact us if you
observe winds significantly deviating from the recreational
forecast.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.
&&
$$
WHAT HAS CHANGED...Hastings
DISCUSSION...Hastings/Kutikoff
AVIATION...Taber
EQUIPMENT...NWS BTV
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