000
FXUS61 KBTV 271909
AFDBTV
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
309 PM EDT Tue Jun 27 2017
.SYNOPSIS...
Widespread showers with embedded thunderstorms will continue
through the afternoon today as an upper level short wave tracks
into the North Country. These storms will have the potential to
cause gusty winds and small hail. The showers and thunderstorms
end tonight and much of the area will be dry on Wednesday with
just the possibility of some showers up along the international
border. Below normal temperatures will continue through
midweek but a warmer and wetter pattern sets up for the rest of
the week and into the weekend.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 233 PM EDT Tuesday...The radar continues to see scattered
showers and thunderstorms across the North Country. The lack of
much surface instability has limited how tall the storms have
been capable of growing however with low freezing levels and
advancing cold pool aloft anticipate a continued small hail
threat through the evening hours.
The showers will end this evening as we lose what little diurnal
driven heat warmed the area to the upper 60s. High pressure will
build in behind the upper level shortwave as it exits the
region this evening and Wednesday. There may be some residual
energy that holds on along the international border so I could
see some isolated showers that develop in the afternoon but
otherwise it should be a pleasant day tomorrow with highs in the
lower 70s.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
As of 233 PM EDT Tuesday...As the weak ridge continues
to build into region anticipate any residual showers to come to
an end. With high pressure aloft it should be a relatively
quiet night. Unfortunately that quiet weather will end as we
start to see a return towards a more active period. Low pressure
moving through the Great Lakes will push a west/east oriented
warm front over the region. Showers develop along the boundary
across northern New York during the morning, and become
widespread across the entire forecast area through the afternoon
and into Thursday night. Composites charts indicate that the
combination of forcing/lift/shear/instability isn`t quite
aligned so we may or may not see much widespread thunder.
However given continuity I went ahead and continued to include
mention of isolated thunderstorms on Thursday generally along
the southern tier where instability will be highest.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 233 PM EDT Tuesday...As we head into the weekend the
biggest threat will be the continued active weather. We are
currently already an 1.5 inches above normal for the month and
nearly 6 inches above normal of precip for the year. With
continued active weather and more rain on the way hydro impacts
come straight to my mind. Friday night and Saturday will see
several waves of low pressure riding along a stalled frontal
boundary to our west will provide ample instability for showers
and thunderstorms along with additional moisture and PWATs
surging to 1.5-2". While the exact timing of each individual
wave is difficult at this time, confidence is high we`ll see
periods of heavy rain with rainfall amounts in the 1-2" range
on top of the 1" we`re likely to see on Thursday. Considering
how wet area soils are already, this could be the tipping point
to realize flash flood potential and bears watching through the
week.
Sunday remains showery, especially across northern areas as the
parent upper trough and surface cold front look to swings through
the region, with quieter and drier conditions expected Monday post
fropa.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Through 18Z Wednesday...Scattered showers and thunderstorms
will continue moving southwest to northeast across the entire
area until 02z. These storms will have the potential for gusty
winds, generally up to 20-30kts and small hail. Visibilities in
the strongest storms will drop to 3-4SM but given the spatial
nature of the storms I couldn`t call anything as prevailing. So
I`ve continued the previous forecasters idea using a tempo
group to handle the storms with vicinity showers elsewhere and
amendments for TS when needed. Any showers and storms will
quickly be ending between 00z and 04z. Expect VFR conditions
through the period...with localized MVFR/IFR conditions near the
showers and storms. Winds will generally be from the south and
southwest through the period.
Outlook...
Wednesday Night: VFR. Slight Chance SHRA.
Thursday: VFR/MVFR. Occasional SHRA.
Thursday Night: MVFR. Likely SHRA...Likely TSRA.
Friday: VFR/MVFR. Chance SHRA...Chance TSRA.
Friday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA...Chance TSRA.
Saturday: VFR/MVFR. Likely SHRA...Chance TSRA.
Saturday Night: VFR. Likely SHRA...Chance TSRA.
Sunday: VFR. Chance SHRA...Slight Chance TSRA.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Deal
NEAR TERM...Deal
SHORT TERM...Deal
LONG TERM...Deal/Lahiff
AVIATION...Deal
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