995
FXUS61 KBTV 101829
AFDBTV
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
229 PM EDT Sun May 10 2026
.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
As of 228 PM EDT Sunday...
Frost Advisory has been issued from 2 AM to 9 AM tonight for
southwestern St. Lawrence County in New York, and in Vermont,
Lamoille, Washington, Rutland, Orange, eastern Franklin, western
Windsor, eastern Chittenden, and eastern Addison Counties.
&&
.KEY MESSAGES...
As of 228 PM EDT Sunday...
1. Trending cooler and drier for early this week, with frost
potential overnight tonight through Tuesday for portions of the
region.
2. A gradually warming and wetter pattern is expected to begin
midweek with widespread rain showers Wednesday through Thursday,
then temperatures trend near or above normal into the weekend.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
As of 228 PM EDT Sunday...
KEY MESSAGE 1: A cold front has moved through the region this morning
with winds turning to the west. Diurnally driven temperatures will
prevail today with temperatures this afternoon near 60 to the low to
mid 60s. Skies should be able to become partly to mostly clear
tonight, with most of the cloud cover observed upstream into Ontario
waining as diurnal heating ceases. HREF and Hi-res guidance depict
this well with a band of clearing across the central St. Lawrence
Valley into central and southern Vermont. There is a chance that
some scattered low clouds may hang on near the International Border,
but regardless, some radiational cooling is expected across the
region which will lower temperatures towards 33 to 36 F. With the
Frost program beginning across the St. Lawrence Valley and eastern
and southern Vermont (outside the NEK) Tonight, temperatures will be
conducive for patchy frost development. A Frost Advisory has been
issued for portions of the St. Lawrence Valley and portions of
central and southern Vermont. Warmer air due to proximity to Lake
Champlain should reduce the frost potential across the Champlain
Valley.
Troughing will continue tomorrow with weak embedded shortwaves and
highs in the 50s. Steepening lapse rates and cooling aloft from
synoptically driven northwest flow will lead to some isolated to
scattered showers with the potential for some summit level snow
across the Adirondacks. Given the expectation for these showers to
be low topped, cold, and instability driven (around 100-150J/kg of
SBCAPE) some isolated graupel and perhaps small hail is possible,
but well below any severe thresholds. The best chance for any shower
will be across northern New York, with precipitation amounts
limited. Showers will taper off as daytime heating wains into the
evening. High pressure will begin to nose in Monday Night with
better chances for clearing skies, frost potential will be nearly
areawide tomorrow night with additional frost advisories, and
perhaps freeze warnings needed. Cool conditions continue Tuesday
under the high with temperatures in the 50s, and continued frost
potential Tuesday night, mainly east of the Greens. High pressure
will shift east Tuesday night ahead of our next weather system and
pattern change for the mid to late week period.
KEY MESSAGE 2: A mid to upper level trough and preceding surface low
pressure system is expected to roll through the Great Lakes and
Northeast Wednesday through Thursday, bringing increased potential
for measurable precipitation during the mid to late week period.
There will be two main periods of precipitation, the first being
lighter showers associated with initial warm air advection on
Wednesday, when temperatures will be in the lower to mid 50s. Then
early Thursday, more potent forcing will likely produce additional
rain showers and embedded thunderstorms as a cold frontal boundary
meets Thursday afternoon temperatures in the mid 50s to lower 60s
and the upper low arrives just west of the forecast area. Rain is
anticipated to taper off Thursday night and Friday as high pressure
tries to nose in from the Ohio Valley late in the week, bringing
highs into the mid 50s mid 60s and lows in the upper 30s and 40s.
Deterministic global models then try to show another upper wave
riding the ridging next weekend, but surface high pressure may limit
how much precipitation actually reaches the forecast area. At the
moment, have PoPs 15-35% for most of the weekend. Temperatures over
the weekend will be largely dependent on how the systems and
moisture evolve, but at the moment trends point towards highs
warming into the 60s to mid 70s and lows upper 30s to lower 50s.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Through 18Z Monday...As a cold frontal boundary that brought rain to
the region shifts south and east, getting farther from northern New
York and Vermont this afternoon, there is a very high likelihood of
VFR conditions through 18Z Monday with cloud bases expected to stay
3500+ feet above ground level. Main focus of this 24 hour TAF period
will be winds. As rain is clearing the area, we see winds picking up
again out of the southwest, at times gusting 15-25 knots. These
gusty winds will continue for the remainder of the afternoon out of
the west-southwest, decreasing around 00Z-03Z Monday and becoming
light and variable overnight with some spots keeping a light west-
southwest wind and others becoming more terrain-influenced, like at
RUT with a light southeasterly flow. Additional rain showers are
possible on Monday, but these would be widely scattered and very
light due to dry air, and would largely occur after 18Z.
Outlook...
Monday Night: VFR. Isolated SHRA, Patchy frost.
Tuesday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Definite SHRA.
Wednesday Night: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. Likely
SHRA.
Thursday: Mainly MVFR, with areas IFR possible. Definite SHRA,
Slight chance TSRA.
Thursday Night: Mainly IFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance
SHRA.
Friday: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. Slight chance SHRA.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...Frost Advisory from 2 AM to 9 AM EDT Monday for VTZ006-008-010-
011-016>020.
NY...Frost Advisory from 2 AM to 9 AM EDT Monday for NYZ087.
&&
$$
WHAT HAS CHANGED...Danzig
DISCUSSION...Danzig/Storm
AVIATION...Storm
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