886
FXUS61 KBTV 200658
AFDBTV
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
258 AM EDT Mon Jul 20 2026
.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
As of 257 AM EDT Monday...
No significant changes.
&&
.KEY MESSAGES...
As of 257 AM EDT Monday...
1. Dry through today then showers and some thunderstorms
Tuesday into Wednesday.
2. Near normal temperatures expected for the second half of the
week into the weekend. No significant weather anticipated at this
time.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
As of 257 AM EDT Monday...
KEY MESSAGE 1: The dry and seasonable stretch continues through
tonight. Highs will be in the 70s to low 80s and lows will be in the
50s and low 60s. An occluding low will track well to the north
Tuesday into Wednesday, bringing several rounds of showers. The
showers look to begin during the day Tuesday and continue into
Wednesday afternoon. Right now, the severe threat is relatively low.
There does not look to be a well-defined boundary, instead several
rounds of showers with plenty of clouds look to move through. There
is very little time for solar heating and instability to form, and
the airmass will be relatively cool to start with. With the low
tracking well to the north, the best synoptic forcing will be well
to the north, though there will be adequate wind shear. Overall, the
region is in an SPC marginal risk which seems representative. While
an isolated strong to severe storm is possible, that looks to be the
extent of it. The system does not look to provide much of a flooding
threat either. GEFS/EPS/CMCE combined ensemble probabilities of
receiving more than an inch of rain are between 10-30 percent. While
there will be areas of convective enhancement, the storms will be
quick-moving and there will be gaps between the showers. PWATs
should rise into the 1.5-1.75 inch range but with the expected
setup, that should not pose too much of a problem. While limited
wildfire smoke may return for Tuesday, its concentration will be
significantly less than on Saturday and it will likely not have much
of an effect on the convection.
KEY MESSAGE 2: Thursday night through Sunday will feature quieter
weather as we close out the week. Upper level trough will pull away
from the region and then surface high pressure will ridge over our
region Thursday night. A low pressure system passes well to our
north Friday into Friday night, our region should not have any
precipitation associated with this system. The weekend looks mainly
dry with near normal temperatures. Next chance for precipitation
will be Sunday night into Monday night as a frontal system and upper
level trough crosses the region.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Through 06Z Tuesday...VFR conditions and light winds are expected
to prevail through the forecast period. Mainly clear skies are
also expected.
Outlook...
Tuesday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA.
Tuesday Night: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. Definite SHRA,
Slight chance TSRA.
Wednesday: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Definite SHRA,
Chance TSRA.
Wednesday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight
chance SHRA.
Thursday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. NO SIG WX.
Thursday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Friday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.
&&
$$
WHAT HAS CHANGED...Myskowski
DISCUSSION...Myskowski/Neiles
AVIATION...Neiles
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