277
FXUS61 KBTV 160707
AFDBTV
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
207 AM EST Sun Nov 16 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
Any mixed precipitation is expected to change to rain or snow early
this morning, and our attention turns to persistent northwesterly
flow and a prolonged period of upslope snow across the Adirondacks
and Greens for the first half of the week. Moderate to heavy
snow and gusty winds are expected, especially for northwestern
slopes with snow accumulations as high as 10 to 18 forecast
through tomorrow. Snow showers will eventually taper off by
Tuesday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
As of 137 AM EST Sunday...
* The Winter Weather Advisory for mixed precipitation remains in
effect this morning for the Green Mountains of Vermont and
areas to their east as there continues to be the potential for
a glaze of freezing rain before dawn this morning.
* A Winter Storm Warning has been issued for portions of
northern New York and Vermont, bringing up to 10-18 inches of
snow to the northwestern slopes of the Adirondacks and Greens.
* A Winter Weather Advisory has been issued for portions of
northern New York and Vermont with accumulations of 2 to 6
inches expected and localized 7 to 9 inches possible in the
mountains.
* Roads, and especially bridges and overpasses, will likely
become slick and hazardous, making travel difficult to
impossible for the Monday morning and evening commutes,
particularly in Winter Storm Warning areas.
* Strong winds of 30-40 mph combined with the weight of snow on
tree limbs may down power lines and could cause sporadic power
outages, particularly in areas we have a Winter Storm Warning
in effect.
Temperatures have reached the 30s across northern New York and
Vermont early this morning. While most parts of New York and the
Champlain Valley have become too mild to support any appreciable
freezing rain, there are still cold pockets along and east of
the Greens this morning that could see mixed precipitation as
the milder air overruns cold air trapped at the surface, but
the window for this potential is closing swiftly and anything
that occurs will likely be only a glaze.
During the day today, low pressure moving off to the northeast
will be pulling cold air into the region from the northwest.
Highs will likely occur early in the day in the mid 30s to mid
40s followed by temperatures falling through the afternoon,
allowing for rain to change over to snow in all locations by the
end of the afternoon. Roads may become slick and travel will
become difficult in the Adirondacks by the early afternoon, and
in the Greens likely by the end of the afternoon today. Winds
and cold air advection will be increasing today with gradients
supporting gusts to 20-40 mph, peaking on Monday morning. This
could result in some blowing snow on the mountains and extra
stress on any snow-laden tree branches.
With lows forecast in the upper teens to lower 30s Sunday
night, this could result in some single digit wind chills in the
Adirondacks and teens/low 20s elsewhere as well as blowing snow
on mountain passes. Monday will feature snow showers becoming
more scattered with highs in the upper 20s and 30s. Snow ratios
make forecasting snow amounts slightly tricky, as model blends
are producing relatively high ratios for the scenario, but
higher resolution models are also showing some support for this
solution. At the moment, thinking ratios start the event today
in the 3 to 11 to 1 range, ending Monday around 13 to 15 to 1.
By the end of the day Monday, we anticipate snow accumulations
will have reached as high as 10 to 18 inches on northwesterly
slopes, though wider valleys will largely miss out on these high
snow amounts with perhaps a half an inch to 2 inches at the
lower elevations.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY/...
As of 137 AM EST Sunday...Upslope snow and gusty gradient
winds will likely continue Monday night and Tuesday morning as
low pressure curls into Atlantic Canada, though much less
widespread with coverage and intensity decreasing. An additional
trace to 3 inches is possible (highest amounts in the northern
Greens) throughout the night and early morning with lows Monday
night in the upper teens to upper 20s and highs Tuesday in the
30s to and lower 40s.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 137 AM EST Sunday...Start of this period (Tuesday night) still
under NW cyclonic influence from departing Canadian Maritimes low
with some weak upper level and surface ridging across the area for
Wednesday through Thursday.
It will be dry through this period but continued seasonably
cold...aka 5 degs below normal for highs but near normal for lows
due to clouds.
Thereafter, Four Corners system lifts toward central CONUS by Friday
with overrunning possible as early as early Friday morning. As upper
level and surface reflection moves across Oh Rvr Vly and Great Lakes
on Friday will see increase in precipitation chances. Initially,
there is enough marginally cold air for some mixed snow and rain,
perhaps some icy mix but have time to refine that part of the
forecast for early Friday but storm track and southerly flow should
keep things liquid for much of Friday with cold air advection on the
backend to reintroduce rain-snow showers Friday night- Saturday.
&&
.AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Through 00Z Monday...Widespread VFR/MVFR conditions will quickly
deteriorate this evening as wintry precipitation spreads from
west to east. This has already moves into the St Lawrence
Valley and it will reach the Champlain Valley by 01z, and
eastern VT by 02z. Terminals in the wider valleys, including
KMSS/KPBG/KBTV/KRUT will remain mostly rain. The higher
terminals of KSLK/KEFK/KMPV will start out as a mix of SN/PL for
a few hours before changing over to mainly FZRA, though KEFK
could hold onto the SN/PL for longer than anticipated.
Regardless, surface temperatures rise overnight, changing all
wintry precipitation to plain rain by the time it starts
tapering to showers, roughly 04z-08z. Showery conditions will
give way to upslope snow as temperatures drop and winds turn to
the northwest; expect all terminals to return to snow by 20z
Sun, with precip most persistent at KMSS/KEFK/KSLK/KMPV.
Visibility will generally be 4-6SM in rain, and 2-4SM in any
wintry mix. Once precipitation goes over to all snow on Sun,
expect 1-3SM visibilities. Ceilings will fall rapidly with onset
of precipitation. Most confident in MVFR at all terminals, with
IFR/LIFR likely at KMSS/KSLK and perhaps KEFK, especially
03z-14z Sun. However, IFR/LIFR can`t be totally ruled out,
though lowest chances would be at KPBG, especially once winds
turn to the west/northwest. South/southeast winds should start
to shift toward the W/NW around 08z at KMSS/KSLK and closer to
12z at KEFK/KMPV. Once winds shift, they will increase to 8-14
kt with gusts of 20-30 kt through the remainder of the TAF
period.
Outlook...
Sunday Night: Mainly MVFR and IFR, with areas VFR possible.
Definite SHSN.
Monday: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. Chance SHSN.
Monday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance SHSN.
Tuesday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance SHSN.
Tuesday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHSN.
Thursday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA, Slight chance SHSN.
&&
.MARINE...
A Lake Wind Advisory is in effect for all areas of Lake
Champlain with westerly winds 10 to 25 knots this morning,
increasing to 15 to 25 knots this afternoon with snow or rain
ongoing. Waves will be around 1 to 3 feet this morning,
building to 2 to 4 feet this afternoon. Strong winds as high as
15-30 knots are forecast to continue into Tuesday.
&&
.EQUIPMENT...
NOAA Weather Radio station WXM-44, transmitting from Mt.
Ascutney, Vermont, on frequency 162.475 MHz is non-operational
at this time. NWS technicians have diagnosed the problem, but
repairs will likely not be able to occur for quite some time due
to circumstances beyond our control. Therefore, the time of
return to service is currently unknown. The following NOAA
Weather Radio transmitters may be able to provide service during
this outage: WWG 50 from Burke Mtn, VT at 162.425 MHz and WNG
546 from Hanover, NH at 162.525 MHz.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...Winter Weather Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 7 PM EST
Monday for VTZ002-004-018-019.
Winter Weather Advisory until 7 AM EST this morning for VTZ003-
004-006>008-010-016>021.
Winter Storm Warning from 1 PM this afternoon to 7 PM EST
Monday for VTZ003-006-008-016-017.
NY...Winter Weather Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 7 PM EST
Monday for NYZ027-034.
Winter Storm Warning from 10 AM this morning to 7 PM EST
Monday for NYZ029>031.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Storm
NEAR TERM...Storm
SHORT TERM...Storm
LONG TERM...SLW
AVIATION...Hastings
MARINE...Storm
EQUIPMENT...Team BTV
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