077
FXUS61 KBTV 010626
AFDBTV
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
226 AM EDT Wed Jul 1 2026
.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
As of 225 AM EDT Wednesday...
No significant changes were made with this forecast package.
Dangerous heat will continue through much of the second half of the
week, and Excessive Heat Warnings and Heat Advisories remain in
place through Friday. While showers and thunderstorms are still
possible each afternoon, strength and areal coverage is still very
uncertain.
&&
.KEY MESSAGES...
As of 225 AM EDT Wednesday...
1. Major to localized extreme heat risk is expected through
Friday with widespread heat index values of 95F to 105F. Some
locations could exceed 105F heat index due to very warm air
temperatures and dewpoints rising into the 70s.
2. Daily chances for showers and thunderstorms will continue
through Friday. Some of these could be strong to severe, but there
remains considerable uncertainty in areal coverage and timing.
3. Dangerously hot and humid conditions will linger into the
holiday weekend along with daily chances of showers and
thunderstorms.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
As of 225 AM EDT Wednesday...
KEY MESSAGE 1: A prolonged and dangerous heat wave will impact Vermont
and northern New York through the latter half of the week as a
strong heat ridge builds into the central Appalachians. Widespread
temperatures in the upper 80s to mid 90s start today and will
persist through at least Friday. Thursday will be the warmest day
with just about everyone hitting 90F, and some locations could
approach 100F. Unfortunately, humidity will also be on the increase;
dewpoints will be in the upper 60s to mid 70s. This will not only
make for dangerous heat index values exceeding 100F in places, it
will keep the overnights very warm and muggy, limiting any relief
from the hot and humid daytime hours. We`ll see a bit of a respite
from the humidity Friday and Saturday, but it will still be very
warm and muggy.
Heat related impacts will increase through the week due to the
cumulative effects from the prolonged heat wave. Please make sure to
take proper heat safety precautions, including limiting your time
outdoors and seeking indoor shelter with air conditioning. Check on
your relatives and neighbors, especially if they are elderly. And
don`t forget about your pets; bring them indoors or provide them
with ample shade and fresh cool water.
KEY MESSAGE 2: A swath of light to moderate rain with embedded rumbles
of thunder continues to push south-southeastward across the region
early this morning. This should gradually weaken and remain elevated
through daybreak. Thereafter, there remains considerable uncertainty
on convective potential over the next few days. Heat and humidity
will combine to create impressive SB CAPE values of 2000-3000 J/kg
today and 1000-2000 J/kg on Thursday, with some indications of
values exceeding 3000 J/kg at times. Shear will be less impressive,
generally 25-35 kt depending on the model and day, perhaps
increasing to 40+ kt Thursday afternoon. With no strong forcing
mechanism other than the abundant instability, expect mainly terrain-
induced convection today, generally remaining isolated to perhaps
scattered in coverage. Strong to severe thunderstorms can`t be ruled
out given the large CAPE values; SPC continues to encompass our
entire forecast area in a Slight Risk (level 2 out of 5) in their
latest Day 1 severe outlook. And as one would expect with the amount
of humidity, we`re also in WPC`s Marginal Risk (level 1 out of 4)
for excessive rainfall. Any storms that pop up today would at the
least produce heavy rainfall, though widespread flooding is not
anticipated.
Additional thunderstorms are possible Thursday and Friday, though
marginal mid-level lapse rates due to loss of the EML will limit
instability and likely areal coverage/intensity for any convection
on Friday. We are included in a Marginal Risk (level 1 out of 5) in
SPC`s Day 2 severe outlook. Friday is more uncertain, both in areal
coverage and potential storm severity. Still, given the upcoming
holiday festivities, we urge everyone to stay tuned to later
forecast updates as strong/severe thunderstorms can`t be totally
ruled out any one day.
KEY MESSAGE 3: Heading through the weekend into next week, warm weather
looks to linger, although temperatures and heat indices will not be
as warm as the week above. Current forecast shows temperatures
generally in the 80s areawide, with temperatures gradually trending
cooler heading into the start of next week. Overnight lows look to
remain on the warmer side, generally in the 60s, which may lead to
accumulating heat impacts. Although it looks like it won`t be quite
as hot as earlier in the week, it is important to remember to drink
water and take frequent breaks if working outside, especially with
such an extended period of warmer weather. There looks to be chances
for showers and thunderstorms throughout the weekend with the
proximity of the frontal boundary moving through the area, which may
also help keep temperatures cooler. There continues to be a lot of
uncertainty in this time range in regards to precipitation chances
heading into next week, with a wide range of model solutions.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Through 06Z Thursday...VFR with mixed MVFR overnight as area of
showers, and heavier cluster of storms tracks near/just west of
the area. Main threat of stronger storms and assoc. turbulence
to generally occur from the Champlain Valley west in the 02-08Z
time frame, but threat is conditional and confidence only modest
at best for any one terminal to experience a stronger storm.
Strong, gusty winds and severe turbulence in the vicinity of any
storms will be a possibility overnight. Showers/storms mainly
clear southeast by sunrise Wednesday leaving VFR conditions area
wide by later in the morning/afternoon. Winds generally light
southerly 5-10 kts through the forecast period outside any
convection.
Outlook...
Thursday: VFR. Chance SHRA, Chance TSRA.
Thursday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA, Chance TSRA.
Friday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA.
Friday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA.
Independence Day: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance
SHRA, Chance TSRA.
Saturday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight
chance SHRA.
Sunday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA.
&&
.CLIMATE...
Extreme heat and humidity will affect the region for the latter
half of the week, which could lead to some daily records. Below
are the current daily high and low temperature records in
jeopardy at our area climate sites.
Record High Temperatures:
July 1:
KBTV: 96/2018
KMPV: 92/2018
KPBG: 94/1968
KMSS: 94/2018
July 2:
KBTV: 97/2018
KMPV: 90/2018
KMSS: 94/2018
July 3:
KMPV: 91/2002
Record High Minimum Temperatures:
July 1:
KBTV: 76/2018
KPBG: 73/1971
KSLK: 69/2018
July 2:
KPBG: 77/2002
KSLK: 68/2002
July 3:
KBTV: 76/1911
KPBG: 73/2002
July 4:
KPBG: 71/1973
KSLK: 67/1952
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...Heat Advisory from noon today to 7 PM EDT Friday for VTZ003-
004-006>008-010-016>020.
Extreme Heat Warning from noon today to 7 PM EDT Friday for
VTZ001-002-005-009-011-021.
NY...Heat Advisory from noon today to 7 PM EDT Friday for NYZ026-
027-029>031-034-087.
Extreme Heat Warning from noon today to 7 PM EDT Friday for
NYZ028-035.
&&
$$
WHAT HAS CHANGED...Hastings
DISCUSSION...Kremer/Hastings
AVIATION...Kremer
CLIMATE...NWS BTV
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