421
FXUS61 KBTV 131120
AFDBTV
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
720 AM EDT Tue Apr 13 2021
.SYNOPSIS...
Quiet weather is expected to continue through Wednesday as we remain
trapped between two upper level lows. Temperatures will remain
seasonal, albeit above normal, with highs in the 60s and lows in the
30s and 40s. The upper level low to our west will move toward the
North Country on Thursday which will bring the next chance of rain,
and possibly mountain snow, to the region. Precipitation chances
will continue into early this weekend before high pressure builds
back across the region.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 710 AM EDT Tuesday...Have made a few changes with this
update, though nothing terribly significant. Satellite imagery
shows low clouds hanging in tough across much of northern NY,
along with some passing clouds traversing westward through
northern VT. Meanwhile, clouds are exiting southern areas, with
some patchy fog seen along the river valleys. Have made
adjustments to the sky cover to match these trends; overall
expect more extensive clouds to give way to partly sunny skies.
Very light radar returns are still showing up over portions of
southern St Lawrence County, but while a sprinkle or two can`t
be totally ruled out this morning, have basically removed
precipitation from the forecast as chances are pretty minimal.
Otherwise, the forecast is in good shape and no other changes
were needed.
Previous discussion...The blocking pattern will persist through
the near term, keeping conditions mainly dry across the North
Country. Other than a few early morning showers across the
southern St Lawrence Valley, today and tonight will feature a
mix of sun and clouds along with light winds. Highs this
afternoon will be in the lower to mid 60s, followed by overnight
lows in the mid 30s to mid 40s. We finally start to transition
out of this pattern on Wednesday as the upper low pressure
that`s been positioned to our west starts to shift eastward.
Moisture will begin to increase as the weak flow turns more
west-southwest ahead of this feature. Lower levels will be
fairly dry under ample mixing and forcing will be quite limited,
but the increasing moisture aloft along with daytime heating
and orographic effects may be enough to allow a few showers to
develop Wednesday afternoon, mainly over the High Peaks of the
Adirondacks and the southern Greens. Coverage will be limited,
so expect most locations will remain dry. Highs will be similar
to today, in the lower to mid 60s, with a few spots approaching
70.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
As of 413 AM EDT Tuesday...Seeing a little better consensus in the
00Z NWP model suite in regard to the upcoming pattern for the middle
to end of the week where the main question continues to be how/when
upstream blocking devolves and where upper level low pressure over
the upper Midwest and a developing coastal low track and interact.
The general idea brought forth this morning is that the closed upper
level low will shift into the eastern Great Lakes Thursday and mid-
Atlantic states Friday with additional southern stream energy
developing a coastal low that will track into southern New England
Thursday night into Friday. Similar to what has transpired over the
past few days, a sharp north/south precipitation gradient will
likely setup across the northeast and will largely depend on the
upper level low track. Have begun to introduce some low likely PoPs
to central/southern zones where the best chance at precipitation
looks to be at this time from early Thursday through Friday. Ptype
will unfortunately come into play Thursday night into Friday with
soundings supporting snow levels down to around 1500 feet and the
potential for some decent higher elevation snow across the southern
Greens. Temps through the period remain largely normal or above,
with Friday the odd day out below normal in the 40s.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 413 AM EDT Tuesday...Drier conditions generally ensue for the
upcoming weekend following the exit of the aforementioned low
pressure system Friday night. Northerly flow on the backside of the
low will keep temps right around normal with highs in the low/mid
50s under mostly cloudy skies Saturday, with variable cloudiness and
perhaps a few passing showers Sunday as the upper level flow trends
more zonal and a weak shortwave traverses the area.
&&
.AVIATION /11Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Through 12Z Wednesday...VFR expected to prevail at all terminals
for the next 24 hours, with a few localized exceptions. KSLK and
KMSS will see MVFR ceilings until 14-15z this morning, then
should lift to AOA 3500 ft. Elsewhere, scattered to occasionally
broken ceilings 3500-6000 ft are expected through the period.
Have seen a few spots with brief IFR/LIFR early this morning in
valley fog, and this could well be the case again late tonight.
Best chances for that would likely be KMPV. Light and variable
winds early this morning will become north to northeast 5-10 kt
by 15z, then become light and variable again around 00z this
evening.
Outlook...
Wednesday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
Wednesday Night: VFR. Slight chance RA, Slight chance SHRA.
Thursday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance RA.
Thursday Night: Mainly MVFR and IFR, with areas VFR possible.
Likely SN, Chance RA.
Friday: Mainly MVFR, with local VFR possible. Chance RA.
Friday Night: Mainly MVFR, with areas IFR possible. Chance RA,
Chance SHRA, Chance SHSN.
Saturday: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. NO SIG WX.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Hastings
NEAR TERM...Hastings
SHORT TERM...Lahiff
LONG TERM...Lahiff
AVIATION...Hastings
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