061
FXUS61 KBTV 031827
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
127 PM EST Sat Jan 3 2026

.SYNOPSIS...
Periods of snow showers will continue across portions of
northern New York and Vermont through Sunday as a weak trough
moves through the region. Then, frigid conditions are expected
Sunday night bringing wind chill values as low as -10 to -20
degrees for much of northern New York and Vermont. Conditions
are expected to trend warmer by the middle of next week with
potential for sharper warming and some mixed wintry
precipitation by late week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...

* Frigid temperatures and wind chills are expected Sunday night
  into Monday. Many locations will range -10 to -15F while
  portions of northern New York and northeastern Vermont dip -15
  to -22F. These conditions will increase chances of frost bite
  for those unprepared.

As of 108 PM EST Saturday...Light snow showers are beginning to
tapering down as drier air works into the region out of Canada
this afternoon. However, another weak trough will sweep west to
east overnight bringing more scattered showers before becoming
relegated to higher terrain by late Sunday.

Focus remains on high pressure Sunday night moving into the
region allowing for some radiational cooling to drop
temperatures. Some locations, especially in the Adirondacks to
near Malone and in northeastern Vermont, could see hazardous
wind chill values below -20F. The caveat here will be winds
which remain marginal and cloud cover. Should cloud cover linger
slightly longer, wind chill values will stay above -20F. Also,
if clouds clear out, then nocturnal subsidence and what promises
to be a very strong radiation inversion would decouple winds.
Still, a light downslope wind of 2 to 5 mph could push wind
chill values low enough to warrant a marginal Advisory. Best
advice for now is to plan for frigid conditions to prevent frost
bite.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
As of 108 PM EST Saturday...Flow is favored to turn southerly
Monday heralding a relative warming trend with temperatures
continuing to run below seasonal averages. A fast moving, but
consolidated at 850-700mb, trough is expected to move through
the region bringing isolated to scattered snow showers. Speed
and limited moisture content (dendritic growth zone nearly on
the ground with little appreciable moisture advection) will keep
snow amounts on the lighter side with a trace to 2 inches
generally possible; highest amounts favored towards the St
Lawrence Valley, higher terrain of southern Vermont, and higher
terrain of the Adirondacks. Thermal packing and gradient to not
appear strong in mostly depictions, so temperatures will
actually be warmer than Sunday night with lows likely ranging
from the single digits above 0F to around 12F.


&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 144 AM EST Saturday...A more active period of wx
anticipated for the long term with several systems expected to
impact our fa. First weak embedded s/w energy in the fast flow
aloft with pocket of enhanced mid lvl moisture moves acrs our
cwa late Monday into Monday night, with period of light snow.
This concept is supported by the latest 00z CMC/GFS and NAM
guidance, while ECMWF is holding onto 1022mb high pres and would
keep best potential for light snow to our south. For now have
continued with chc pops for Monday night with temps single
digits to lower teens, but could see colder solution if ECMWF
is correct and much warmer if more clouds/light precip is
falling per GFS/CMC and NAM solutions.

Next stronger system with deep moisture profiles and better
dynamics arrives late Tues night into Weds. Progged 1004mb low
pres is expected to track from western NY acrs central New
England as flow aloft remains progressive (west-east). This
general idea wl support a widespread accumulating snowfall
associated with initial waa lift/moisture, followed by
additional synoptic scale lift associated with 700-500mb vort
center moving directly overhead. An advisory level event is
possible, given the dynamics and available moisture. In
addition, initially thermal profiles are cold enough for all
snow, but warm layer develops on southwest flow with progged
925mb to 850mb layer warming btwn 1C-3C, especially CPV and
parts of northern NY, while east of the Greens stays slightly
cooler. The idea of snow to mix to possible light rain scenario
is likely, especially deeper/wider valleys, like CPV and western
SLV. Also, given developing southwest flow of 35 to 45 knots at
850mb, some downslope shadowing is likely. Did trend winds
toward the NBM 90th percentile to capture potential for stronger
gusts CPV and higher trrn late Tues night into Weds, with temps
warming into the 30s.

By late week next full latitude mid/upper lvl trof is
developing over the Central Plains, as ridging builds acrs the
eastern CONUS. This supports a period of above normal temps with
increasing south/southwest flow, deeper moisture advection from
the Gulf and sub-tropical jet cutting acrs northern Mexico. As
sfc low pres develops on lee-side of the Rockies by Friday
deeper moisture and much warmer air wl be advecting northward
toward the NE CONUS late week into next weekend. Still a large
spread in mid/upper lvl trof evolution and exact track of sfc
low pres for late week into next weekend attm. For now have keep
close to the NBM for temps/pops, which supports increasing
potential for a mostly rain event by late week with temps
warming at least into the 40s.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Through 18Z Sunday...An area of light snow will slowly sink to the
south this afternoon. Visibility at RUT should decline to intervals
of MVFR and IFR this afternoon as the snow arrives, before exiting
this evening. The lingering snow should gradually exit the rest of
the terminals by mid afternoon and VFR visibilities should mostly
prevail there afterward. Ceilings will gradually increase this
afternoon and evening, and they should be VFR by late evening
everywhere. An area of light snow will try to make its way into
southwestern parts of the region in the couple hours around
midnight, and while most of it should miss the terminals, a few snow
showers are possible at RUT and SLK. VFR conditions should persist
during the rest of the night and through tomorrow morning. Winds
will generally be light and northerly during this period.

Outlook...

Sunday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Monday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHSN.
Monday Night: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. Chance SN.
Tuesday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Slight chance
SHSN.
Tuesday Night: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. Chance SHSN.
Wednesday: MVFR. Chance SHRA, Chance SHSN.
Wednesday Night: Mainly IFR, with areas MVFR possible. NO SIG WX.
Thursday: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. NO SIG WX.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
NOAA Weather Radio station WXM-44, transmitting from Mt.
Ascutney, Vermont, on frequency 162.475 MHz is non-operational
at this time. NWS technicians have diagnosed the problem, but
repairs will likely not be able to occur for quite some time due
to circumstances beyond our control. Therefore, the time of
return to service is currently unknown. The following NOAA
Weather Radio transmitters may be able to provide service during
this outage: WWG 50 from Burke Mtn, VT at 162.425 MHz and WNG
546 from Hanover, NH at 162.525 MHz.

The Colchester Reef meteorological station is out of service.
This site is not serviced by the NWS and there isn`t an
estimated return to service at present. Use extra caution when
navigating the broad waters of Lake Champlain. Please contact us
if you observe winds significantly deviating from the
recreational forecast.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Boyd
NEAR TERM...Boyd
SHORT TERM...Boyd
LONG TERM...Taber
AVIATION...Myskowski
EQUIPMENT...Team BTV