400
FXUS61 KBTV 240012
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
812 PM EDT Tue Jun 23 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
As of 230 PM EDT Tuesday...

No significant changes.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
As of 230 PM EDT Tuesday...

1. Showers return for Thursday into Friday

2. Heat and humidity to very gradually build which means
diurnally-driven, isolated to scattered showers with a few
thunderstorms.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
As of 230 PM EDT Tuesday...

KEY MESSAGE 1:  After a mostly dry mid-week, another area of low
pressure will track into the region from the west. It looks to be
much weaker, with the pressure only dropping to around 1010 MB as it
passes through. A weak warm front should pass through late Thursday
into Thursday night, bringing the first round of showers. There will
be enough synoptic ascent to try to cause a brief round of
stratiform precip, but even if that does occur, rainfall totals will
be much lighter than yesterday. A break looks to occur Friday
morning, especially over southern areas, before a broken line of
showers tries to form in the afternoon. Through Friday,
GEFS/EPS/CMCE combined ensemble probabilities of receiving more than
0.5 inches are between 40-70 percent and probabilities of receiving
more than an inch are less than 20 percent. On Friday afternoon,
around 500-750 J/kg of CAPE looks to form and 0-6 KM shear
looks to be around 30-35 KT, so a few strong storms will be
possible. However, increasing dry air aloft and relatively weak
synoptic dynamics will help minimize the threat. Adequate storm
movement should minimize the flood threat.

KEY MESSAGE 2: Both Saturday and Sunday`s weather pattern will be
characterized by an amplifying trough to our east and ridge to our
west. In the relatively slow northwest flow aloft, there`s a long,
stretched-out lobe of vorticity. With temperatures in the mid 70s to
lower 80s and dewpoints hovering around 60, it`ll be just enough
that isolated showers with a few rumbles of thunder will be
possible. Even without the specificity of high res guidance, it
looks like the kind of days where activity bubbles over the
mountains or lake breeze, and slowly drifts off and decays in their
own downdraft with very little atmospheric flow.

Then by next Monday into Tuesday, surface high pressure will more
definitively build across the Eastern Seaboard and then off into the
Atlantic. This will usher greater warmth, and then humidity lags
behind it. Ridging will suppress activity as temperatures rise
solidly into the 80s and dewpoints begin to creep into the lowers
60s to the mid-upper 60s. This means there`s a good chance we`ll be
looking at heat indices creeping into the 90s.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Through 00Z Thursday...The potential for isold -RW has ended for
the evening. Lingering SCT-BKN080-100 will likewise gradually
dissipate through 02-03Z with onset of diurnal cooling cycle.
Should see NW winds diminishing overnight. Looks marginal for
reaching crossover temperature thresholds, but given above
normal soil moisture conditions, included 2-3SM BR at SLK/MPV
from 09-12Z. Could see some brief IFR due to early AM fog at
both sites. Any fog will diminish after 12z, and then northwest
winds pick up again during the late morning and thru the
afternoon hours on Wednesday. Given good mixing, appears winds
will will reach 6-12 knots sustained, and a few gusts up to
18-20 knots possible. Skies are expected to remain VFR with
scattered high based fair weather cumulus clouds during the
midday thru afternoon period.

Outlook...

Wednesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Thursday: VFR. Chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA.
Thursday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Definite
SHRA, Slight chance TSRA.
Friday: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Likely SHRA, Chance
TSRA.
Friday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Saturday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA.
Saturday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
Sunday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$

WHAT HAS CHANGED...Myskowski
DISCUSSION...Haynes/Myskowski
AVIATION...Banacos