846
FXUS61 KBTV 042333
AFDBTV
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
733 PM EDT Thu Jun 4 2026
.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
As of 228 PM EDT Thursday...
No significant changes made with this forecast.
&&
.KEY MESSAGES...
As of 228 PM EDT Thursday...
1. Unsettled and cooler this weekend with several rounds of
showers and embedded thunderstorms likely. Probability of severe
weather is low at this time.
2. Warm and dry conditions will return for most of next week
with highs soaring into the 80s again.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
As of 228 PM EDT Thursday...
KEY MESSAGE 1: Mid/upper lvl ridge wl begin to breakdown on Friday with
developing westerly flow aloft and embedded s/w energy impacting our
fa by Saturday. Progged 925mb temps range btwn 20-22C on Friday,
which are a degree warmer than today, but given increasing
westerly flow aloft, thinking some mid/upper lvl debris clouds
may result in filtered sunshine and keep temps in the mid/upper
80s. Soundings continues to support good mixing from 850mb to
the sfc, which supports some lowering of sfc dwpts during peak
heating again on Friday aftn, minimizing the heat risk with
comfortable humidity values. Min rh`s should be in the 25 to 35%
range.
The potential for showers increase on Friday night acrs northern NY
and spread into central/northern VT by Saturday morning. Initial s/w
energy in the 700-500mb westerly flow aloft moves acrs the
International Border region, while deep layer moisture in the 1000-
500mb layer increases btwn 70% and 90%, but instability parameters
are minimal thru 12z Sat. Have chc to likely pops expanding along
our northern tier after midnight with likely to cat pops on Sat
morning.
As initial s/w energy moves into central/eastern New England by
midday, a weak area of subsidence should develop over our cwa, which
should allow for some intervals of sunshine. This sfc heating wl
result in modest instability to develop with sfc based CAPE
values in the 800-1200 J/kg range, ahead of secondary s/w
energy. The dynamics and associated height falls are fairly
strong, so even with modest instability, thinking isolated to
scattered convection is likely toward 21z northern NY and btwn
00z-03z VT. Given the timing/instability and shear, feel
probability of severe is low attm, but a few stronger storms wl
be possible, especially northern NY. As typical the severe setup
is rather messy and not ideal with instability and dynamics not
interacting with the best shear and sfc convergence. Also, did
note soundings acrs eastern/southern VT, where a second pocket
of instability develops are rather capped with warm layer near
800mb of 13C at VSF off the NAM3km. Highs Saturday mid 70s to
mid 80s with localized values in the upper 80s near VSF.
The threat for additional showers and embedded thunderstorms prevail
on Sunday as potent s/w energy in the northerly flow aloft on the
backside of departing mid/upper lvl trof impacts our cwa. Depending
upon timing of s/w energy and how much sfc heating/instability can
develop associated with cool pool aloft, some pea size hail is
possible with a few of the stronger convective updrafts. GFS shows
sfc based CAPE values in the 250-500 J/kg range over southern VT,
while NAM is less and much drier. GFS sounding data at VSF shows WBZ
heights around 8kft and EL near 25kft, supporting the potential for
some small hail, given the thermodynamics. I have trended
toward the GFS/ECMWF and CMC solutions with high likely pops,
especially acrs most of VT on Sunday. Temps mostly in the 70s
with northerly winds at 5 to 15 knots.
KEY MESSAGE 2: Strong ridging makes a comeback next week, keeping
conditions quiet and dry as well as allowing temperatures to climb
back into the 80s by early to mid week. The axis of upper ridging
will be centered over the Great Lakes into Quebec, keeping us on the
eastern periphery for much of the time, though some global models
bring the upper ridge farther east into New England. The peak of the
heat looks like it will occur on Thursday afternoon with highs
around 80-90 F across northern New York and Vermont, however,
deterministic models show a dramatic disagreement towards the second
half of the week, so these temperatures are subject to change
depending on how the pattern develops. Dew points are expected to
mainly be in the 50s Wednesday and Thursday. Blended guidance
suggests there is a 10-30% chance of measurable precipitation
Wednesday through Thursday, though it`s unclear whether this would
be from a shortwave as the high pressure bubble breaks down or
popcorn convective showers occurring on the edge of cyclonic flow in
the Atlantic. At the moment, the blocked pattern remaining in place
looks like the most likely scenario.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Through 00Z Saturday...VFR conditions will prevail through the
forecast period with light winds for most terminals. Wind
direction will be down drainage overnight and more westerly
after the nocturnal inversion breaks 14-16Z Friday. Some gusts
to 15kts are probable at MSS where southwesterly flow aligns
with the St Lawrence Valley while PBG has another day of lake
breeze. CIGs will remain high and thicken after 16Z Friday.
Outlook...
Friday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA.
Saturday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Likely SHRA,
Slight chance TSRA.
Saturday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Likely
SHRA.
Sunday: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Chance SHRA, Chance
TSRA.
Sunday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Monday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Monday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
&&
.CLIMATE...
Temperatures will be approaching daily record warm values on
Thursday, June 4th, and Friday, June 5th. At this time,
Plattsburgh (PBG) and Montpelier (MPV) have the greatest chances
of setting a new record.
Record High Temperatures:
June 4:
KMPV: 87/2025
KPBG: 88/1967
June 5:
KMPV: 86/2025
KPBG: 90/2020
Record High Minimum Temperatures:
June 5:
KPBG: 65/1963
June 6:
KPBG: 67/1973
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.
&&
$$
WHAT HAS CHANGED...Taber
DISCUSSION...Taber/Storm
AVIATION...Boyd
CLIMATE...NWS BTV
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