752
FXUS61 KBTV 211737
AFDBTV
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
137 PM EDT Tue Apr 21 2026
.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
As of 235 AM EDT Tuesday...
No significant changes but the weekend is trending drier.
&&
.KEY MESSAGES...
As of 235 AM EDT Tuesday...
1. Mostly dry and cool this week with a couple chances for
light precipitation.
2. Trending drier for the weekend and early next week with near
normal temperatures.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
As of 235 AM EDT Tuesday...
KEY MESSAGE 1: An omega type block will set up over the middle part of
the country for a large part of the week, keeping a relatively
consistent stretch of weather. The main chance of precipitation
occurs tonight as a weak shortwave dives southeast out of Canada.
Scattered showers are expected, with the highest probabilities of
seeing precipitation over southern and western areas. Snow levels
look to be between 1,000 and 2,000 ft during the precipitation so
very light accumulations are possible in the higher elevations.
With liquid precipitation only expected to be in the range of a
couple hundreths of an inch at most and with marginal temperatures,
accumulations are expected to be under an inch. An even weaker round
of precipitation is possible Wednesday night with a few
sprinkles/flurries possible. The main feature to watch during this
stretch are the fire weather elements. Today and Thursday will be
the days with the lowest relative humidity. Relative humidity values
look to be in the 20s and 30s today, with slightly higher values on
Thursday. However, winds will be relatively light today, with gusts
generally staying around and under 15 mph. Thursday will be windier,
with northwesterly gusts between 20 and 30 mph possible.
KEY MESSAGE 2: Forecast trends are towards drier conditions for the
upcoming weekend with medium/long range guidance indicating high
pressure will remain over the region, shunting precipitation chances
southward across southern New England and the Mid-Atlantic states.
Thereafter an omega-block pattern looks to set up early next week
with an upper level ridge shifting over the forecast area for Monday
and Tuesday. Near normal temperatures are expected with highs in the
upper 50s to mid 60s, and lows mid 30s to mid 40s.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Through 18Z Wednesday...VFR conditions continue to prevail across the
region this afternoon, with increasing high and mid level clouds
this evening. Ceilings will continue to lower overnight, with most
terminals expected to see a period of MVFR ceilings after 09Z or and
so, continuing through the remainder of the forecast period. A few
showers may be possible overnight tonight, particularly at KRUT, but
there is low confidence in any shower development or impacts to
terminals to include in the forecast, with ceilings having a greater
impact on aviation. Winds this afternoon have generally be from the
southwest, with southeast winds at KPBG, anywhere from 5 to 10
knots. Occasional gusts up to 20 knots are possible, especially at
KMSS. Winds will continue to be southerly throughout the forecast
period.
Outlook...
Wednesday Night: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. NO SIG WX.
Thursday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. NO SIG WX.
Thursday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Friday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Friday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Saturday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
Saturday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
Sunday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.
&&
$$
WHAT HAS CHANGED...Myskowski
DISCUSSION...Myskowski/Lahiff
AVIATION...Kremer
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