050
FXUS61 KBTV 310814
AFDBTV
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
414 AM EDT Tue Mar 31 2026
.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
As of 341 AM EDT Tuesday...
Have removed Grand Isle county from the winter weather advisory and
lowered ice accretion totals in the advisory area as well.
Temperatures are still in the 40s across the region, therefore not
expecting as much freezing rain.
&&
.KEY MESSAGES...
As of 413 AM EDT Tuesday...
1. Round 1 of rain with wintry mix near the international
border Tuesday into Wednesday.
2. Round 2 of Rain with wintry mix near the international
border Thursday into Friday.
3. River rises expected with local lowland field flooding
possible Tuesday into Wednesday.
4. Warm conditions likely Friday through Sunday with periods of
gusty winds possible.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
As of 413 AM EDT Tuesday...
KEY MESSAGE 1: A low pressure system tracks west to east across our
area today somewhere in the vicinity of the international border. We
are mainly expecting light rain as this low moves across the area
along a stalled out front which is bisecting the region. Overnight
minimum temperatures have not dropped lower than the 40s, therefore
not expecting freezing rain this morning. As temperatures cool this
evening there will be a chance for some light freezing rain,
generally up to a couple hundredths of an inch. Rainfall totals will
range from around six tenths of an inch up to an inch and a quarter
through Wednesday afternoon when the precipitation will wind down.
There is some elevated instability in place, therefore can`t rule
out a few rumbles of thunder, and also some rain being heavy at
times. Best chances for thunder will be across our southern zones.
KEY MESSAGE 2: Another storm system tracks across the region for late
Thursday into Friday. Canadian high pressure will be established on
Thursday and it will provide a cold antecedent airmass for this low
pressure to run into. With the current expected storm track, the
precipitation looks to start as a wintry mix and transition to all
rain. Areas east of the Greens will have the best chance of seeing
some ice accretion where there will be some cold air damming on the
east side of the mountains. This system will also only have small
ice accretions, up to two hundredths of an inch. Winds will be gusty
behind this system as it pulls away to the east, southerly gusts
around 30 kts are possible.
KEY MESSAGE 3: Combination of the two rain systems this week will
provide us with one to two inches of QPF. There will also be some
snow melt as temperatures remain mild through the period.
Combination of these factors will mean we could see some sharp rises
on area rivers and streams. At this time think that we will mainly
see within bank rises, but some gages could reach action stage mid
week.
KEY MESSAGE 4: A higher amplitude upper level pattern becomes probable
over the weekend as a trough digs over the northern Plains states.
This pattern should keep the storm track to our west with lower
chances for precipitation than earlier in the week. The flow pattern
will also maintain the persistent ridge over the western Atlantic
and the associated warm air over much of the eastern US. As such,
unseasonable warmth, which has occasionally surged northward, should
become more sustained in our area. High temperatures could be well
into the 60s to low 70s Friday through Sunday.
As of now, both Friday and Sunday look fairly similar with regards
to gusty south winds. The ECMWF Extreme Forecast Index is also
fairly bullish on high temperatures being quite warm on Sunday ahead
of the system`s cold front, particularly in the Champlain Valley and
southern portions of our New York forecast area. However, an earlier
timing of the front will support Friday and Saturday being more
likely warmer days despite this potential warmth. Based on the 00Z
ensemble data, the slower frontal timing seems to be dominated by
the ENS over the GEFS/GEPS, so think things may trend towards a
faster frontal passage and a less warm scenario for Sunday, although
morning temperatures would be unusually mild. Gusty post frontal,
westerly winds will be possible regardless sometime in the later
Sunday-Monday period as temperatures fall back towards normal early
April values.
&&
.AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Through 06Z Wednesday...Rain showers will become more widespread
between 10 and 15Z, resulting in a trend towards mainly MVFR
conditions with very brief IFR visibilities in any heavier showers.
A lull in rain is expected at all terminals after this time before
more widespread showers arrive this evening. Moist conditions
combined with convergent flow patterns will lead to increasing
chances for low ceilings and IFR conditions even as steady rain
ends, especially in northern terminals. Rain may also have embedded
thunderstorms, although probabilities are too low to mention in
TAFs. Greatest risk of thunder would be in southern terminals
including SLK, RUT, and MPV.
Winds could be somewhat changeable based on the wavering
position of a front bisecting the airspace. At northernmost
terminals, expect mainly northerly flow, which is relatively
strong this morning with sustained winds 7 to 15 knots. Winds
should trend a little lighter after 12Z. Light and variable
winds are anticipated for much of the period at MPV and RUT,
trending southerly. The light surface winds will be accompanied
by bursts of stronger southwesterly winds aloft as clusters of
showers move through the area, especially after 22Z, resulting
in areas of low level wind shear.
Outlook...
Wednesday: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Slight chance RA,
Slight chance FZRA.
Wednesday Night: VFR. Chance FZRA, Chance PL, Slight chance SN.
Thursday: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. Likely RA, Chance
FZRA, Chance SN, Chance PL.
Thursday Night: Mainly MVFR, with local VFR possible. Definite
RA, Chance TSRA, Likely FZRA.
Friday: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Chance RA.
Friday Night: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Chance RA.
Saturday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance RA.
&&
.EQUIPMENT...
The Colchester Reef meteorological station is out of service.
This site is not serviced by the NWS. An estimated return to
service is May 1st. Please contact us if you observe winds
significantly deviating from the recreational forecast.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...Winter Weather Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 9 AM EDT
Wednesday for NYZ026>028-030-031.
&&
$$
WHAT HAS CHANGED...Neiles
DISCUSSION...Kutikoff/Neiles
AVIATION...Kutikoff
EQUIPMENT...NWS BTV
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