799
FXUS61 KBTV 271121
AFDBTV
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
721 AM EDT Sat Jun 27 2026
.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
As of 222 AM EDT Saturday...
Wednesday and Thursday have trended a bit hotter.
&&
.KEY MESSAGES...
As of 222 AM EDT Saturday...
1. Aside from a couple of terrain driven thunderstorms this
afternoon and rounds of nocturnal valley fog, no hazardous weather
is expected over the next few days as temperatures trend warmer.
2. Hot and humid weather expected for mid to late week next
week, with multiple rounds of showers/thunderstorms possible right
through the holiday weekend.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
As of 222 AM EDT Saturday...
KEY MESSAGE 1: Isolated cellular showers and a thunderstorm or two are
expected to develop today; with lack of any other trigger, these
will be driven by the terrain. CAMs suggest higher probability of
thunderstorms across the Adirondacks than near/east of the Green
Mountains, where there will be greater instability. Forecast
soundings continue to show mainly 400 to 800 J/kg of surface-based
CAPE and dry air in the 700-500 millibar layer this afternoon such
that coverage and severity of thunderstorms will be quite low.
Additionally while there will be plenty of deep layer shear given
winds aloft, that aforementioned dry air will limit cloud growth
such that it will be a challenge to tap into this shear or even
produce lightning. Additionally, while any terrain-driven
thunderstorm is capable of heavy rain, it appears they should
propagate east or southeastward with time and only when they
are shallower/weaker will storm motion be more erratic. Overall,
this scenario bodes well to minimize any hydro concerns
following recent wet weather. On Sunday and Monday, as the broad
trough in place shifts further east, we trend drier such that
diurnally driven CAPE may be insufficient to produce a repeat of
any terrain-driven showers.
Radiation fog will almost certainly develop again tonight and Sunday
night as high pressure further builds in with plenty of soil
moisture and evaporation to feed its development overnight in the
vicinity of rivers and lakes. We have bumped low temperatures
downward a bit for the next couple of nights consistent with the
expected mostly clear skies and fog development. As we move further
away from fresh rainfall, expect primarily the typical deeper valley
spots and other fog-prone areas will see patchy fog for the Monday
and Tuesday morning commutes as compared to over the weekend.
Temperatures may need to trend a little lower on these nights as
well, although it is more uncertain, as crossover temperatures may
be more difficult to reach with a warming/drying trend. Overall,
through Tuesday morning each nighttime period looks comfortable
for sleeping.
KEY MESSAGE 2: Summery conditions expected from mid week next week
onward into the holiday weekend as high pressure builds eastward
from the Ohio River Valley. The overall trend will be toward hot and
humid weather as this high moves in; however, we also look to be
active as models indicate the potential for ridge runner-type
systems to ride up over the top of the ridge and across our region.
Daytime temperatures will rise well into the mid 80s to mid 90s both
Wednesday and Thursday. Dewpoints will be in the 60s and 70s, so
quite uncomfortable, and serving to keep nighttime conditions mild
and muggy. We`ll get a bit of a reprieve as we head into the
weekend, but it will still be hot and humid with highs in the 80s to
near 90F. As mentioned above, periods of showers/thunderstorms are
expected, especially in the afternoons as the heat and humidity will
provide ample CAPE for storm development. Any precipitation could
keep daytime highs a little lower than currently indicated, but
regardless, it will be dangerously hot and humid, especially
Wednesday through Thursday, when heat index values could approach
100F. Anyone with outdoor plans next week should stay aware of
future forecasts and include both hot weather and thunderstorm
safety steps in your plans.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Through 12Z Sunday...Other than local IFR in patchy fog early this
morning, expect VFR conditions to prevail at all terminals through
the daylight hours and the first part of tonight.
Isolated to scattered showers/thunderstorms are expected to develop
over the higher terrain this afternoon. Although areal coverage is
not enough to warrant mention in the TAFs at this time, KSLK will
have the best chances of seeing a shower/thunderstorm this
afternoon. MVFR/IFR possible in any thunderstorms. Otherwise, SCT-
BKN ceilings AOA 3500 ft today, giving way to another round of
patchy valley fog tonight. Fog development most likely at
KSLK/KMPV/KMSS, and perhaps KEFK/KRUT. IFR/LIFR likey in any fog,
especially after 08z Sun. Light winds 6 kt or less through the
entire TAF period.
Outlook...
Sunday: VFR. Patchy BR.
Sunday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Monday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Monday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday: VFR. Chance SHRA, Chance TSRA.
Tuesday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA,
Chance TSRA.
Wednesday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Slight chance
SHRA, Slight chance TSRA.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.
&&
$$
WHAT HAS CHANGED...Kutikoff
DISCUSSION...Kutikoff/Hastings
AVIATION...Hastings
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