151
FXUS61 KBTV 250610
AFDBTV
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
110 AM EST Tue Nov 25 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
Quiet weather conditions are expected today before an approaching
system will drag a warm front north with light rain late this
evening into tonight. Scattered showers and warm weather will
precede a cold front Wednesday evening into the overnight hours.
Behind this, blustery weather and localized lake effect snow in St.
Lawrence County into the western Adirondacks will develop over the
day on Thanksgiving. More isolated shower activity will develop over
Vermont later in the day. Snow showers will transition towards
northwestern slopes on Friday with a trend towards calmer conditions
again this weekend.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 107 AM EST Tuesday...The axis of a 500mb ridge as about to
reach us. We`re already seeing south flow result in warming
temperatures across the St. Lawrence and Champlain Valleys, and
continued warming is expected as a result of warm advection.
Precipitation will move in from the southwest and quickly lift
northwards as a warm front lifts north during the overnight hours.
Rainfall amounts will be about a tenth to a quarter in association
with it. Behind it, continued warming is expected with partial
clearing in the warm sector of a broad, mature surface cyclone
moving east over the Great Lakes region. Scattered precipitation
could develop at almost any time as increasing synoptic scale lift
moves into the region. Temperatures on Wednesday will reach the
upper 40s to mid 50s. An occluded front will reach the St. Lawrence
Valley during the evening hours. Cooling aloft will already get
underway, and this will result in marginal 100-200 J/kg of CAPE
amidst strong forcing for ascent at the left exit region of a well-
defined jet streak. A rumble of two of thunder is possible, but left
mention within weather forecasts out for now.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 107 AM EST Tuesday...
**A Winter Storm Watch for Lake Effect is in effect 1 AM
Thursday to 1 AM Saturday in Southeastern St. Lawrence County**
The occluded boundary will quickly shift east prior to midnight on
Thanksgiving Day. Following the transition into Thursday, very cold
temperatures aloft approaching the 10th percentile will shift
overhead. Unidirectional southwesterly flow will develop while the
mature surface cyclone slowly lifts northeastwards. These conditions
will be favorable for Lake Effect snow. Although there`s some
uncertainty on how early this band will develop, and wind direction
forecasts indicate a 40 degree spread amongst ensembles, but
guidance converges during the evening and overnight hours of
Thursday for a period of heavy snowfall rates. In combination with
gusty winds, parts of the northern New York will have some
challenging travel. Marginal temperatures may limit accumulations
initially, so the greatest impacts will be once heavy snowfall rates
can overcome those hurdles. So the time to be careful will be
heading home from any holiday festivities.
Outside Lake Effect snow, it will be breezy with gusts 25 to 35 over
much of the region, locally up to 40 near Malone or Ellenburg in New
York. With temperatures gradually falling into the mid 30s to lower
40s, it`ll feel chilly after the warmth on Wednesday. Even absent
the lake effect, cool conditions aloft and favorable conditions for
vertical lift will likely promote some isolated convective activity
over Vermont towards Thanksgiving evening.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 107 AM EST Tuesday...Lake effect snow off Lake Ontario will
continue across northern New York, with the band shifting south of
the region on Friday as winds become more northwesterly behind the
cold front. With the favorable northwesterly slow, a period of
upslope snow showers look likely to continue through the day Friday
into the weekend, with a few additional inches of snowfall possible
along some of the more favored slopes. Moisture across the region
will gradually wane, with quieter conditions expected during by
Saturday afternoon. An active weather pattern looks to continue as
we head into next week, with another low pressure system approaching
the region as early as Sunday, although there is still a large
amount of uncertainty at this time both in regards to low track and
timing. Temperatures during this time period will start off on the
cold side, with daytimes highs only reaching into the lower 30s
Friday and Saturday, with many locations struggling to reach
freezing. Temperatures look to moderate towards the start of next
week, with highs in the 30s to low 40s.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Through 06Z Wednesday...VFR conditions currently prevail across all
terminals with increasing high clouds across the region. VFR
conditions will continue through most of the forecast period, until
around 00Z as precipitation begins to enter the region. Ceilings are
expected to trend towards MVFR, and possibly lower, for the
remainder of the period as rainfall continues with some reduced
visibilities also possible. Winds will continue to be southerly,
increasing through the morning with gusts of 10 to 15 knots possible.
Outlook...
Wednesday: Mainly MVFR, with areas IFR possible. Chance RA.
Wednesday Night: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Windy with
gusts to 30 kt. Likely RA, Chance SHRA, Chance SHSN.
Thanksgiving Day: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Windy
with gusts to 30 kt. Chance SHSN.
Thursday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Windy with
gusts to 30 kt. Chance SHSN.
Friday: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. Chance SHSN.
Friday Night: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. Chance SHSN.
Saturday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. NO SIG WX.
&&
.MARINE...
A period of gusty winds is expected over Lake Champlain as a warm
front approaches the region. The strongest winds will be early this
morning before tapering off this afternoon with speeds of 15 to 25
knots and gusts up to 30 knots focused over the broad waters. Waves
could quickly build towards 2 to 4 feet, primarily over the broad
waters.
&&
.EQUIPMENT...
NOAA Weather Radio station WXM-44, transmitting from Mt.
Ascutney, Vermont, on frequency 162.475 MHz is non-operational
at this time. NWS technicians have diagnosed the problem, but
repairs will likely not be able to occur for quite some time due
to circumstances beyond our control. Therefore, the time of
return to service is currently unknown. The following NOAA
Weather Radio transmitters may be able to provide service during
this outage: WWG 50 from Burke Mtn, VT at 162.425 MHz and WNG
546 from Hanover, NH at 162.525 MHz.
Equipment malfunctions at Colchester Reef will likely leave it
inoperable for an extended period of time. Use extra caution
when navigating the broad waters, and please contact us if you
observe winds significantly deviating from the forecast.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...Winter Storm Watch from late Wednesday night through late
Friday night for NYZ029.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Haynes
NEAR TERM...Haynes
SHORT TERM...Haynes
LONG TERM...Kremer
AVIATION...Kremer
MARINE...Team BTV
EQUIPMENT...Team BTV
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