523
FXUS61 KBTV 272314
AFDBTV
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
714 PM EDT Fri Mar 27 2026
.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
As of 233 PM EDT Friday...
No significant changes from the previous forecast.
&&
.KEY MESSAGES...
As of 233 PM EDT Friday...
1. Scattered afternoon snow showers will produce brief low
visibilities and quick, light and fluffy snow accumulations on
Saturday.
2. Return to seasonable temperatures Sunday and Monday with
mainly dry weather.
3. An unsettled weather pattern is expected for next week,
bringing multiple chances for precipitation and warmer
temperatures.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
As of 233 PM EDT Friday...
KEY MESSAGE 1: Following a frigid night with temperatures
dropping into the single digits to teens, unseasonably cold
conditions will continue into tomorrow; temperatures will remain
sub-freezing even in the lowest valley locations tomorrow
afternoon. A remnant trough, currently in the U.P. of Michigan,
will enter our region during the day within west-northwest flow
aloft, and promote development of scattered snow showers that
should largely track from west to east. The snow squall
parameter shows some low, non-zero values, consistent with some
minor instability associated with diurnal heating but little in
the way of frontogenesis. The development of steep low level
lapse rates will promote upward motion in the lower part of the
clouds, which will have favorable temperatures for snow
production. As such, despite relatively meager moisture snow
showers will develop efficiently. High snow ratios likely near
20:1, or possibly higher in an isolated heavier shower, point to
low visibilities in the snow with potential for blowing snow.
With minimal pressure changes the background wind fields look
modest, but deep mixing (up to about 8000 feet above ground
level per HREF mean) associated with relatively dry low level
air should lead to gusts up to 25 MPH.
Model consensus suggests most locations, especially above 1000
feet elevation, could see a fresh coating to half inch of snow,
with localized spots above about 1500 feet likely seeing 1 to 2
inches of fluffy snowfall. Isolated showers could start up by
noon in St. Lawrence and Franklin counties in New York, become
more widespread across the Adirondacks through mid-afternoon,
push into Vermont in the late afternoon and early evening, and
wind down in northeastern portions of Vermont towards 10 PM.
Expect while many of us will see snow showers at some point
during the afternoon to evening timeframe, accumulations will be
minimal for most locations.
KEY MESSAGE 2: A moisture-starved warm front will lift through
the area early Sunday as low level flow turns southerly, marking
a return to seasonable temperatures with highs ranging through
the 40s. Partly to mostly cloudy skies Sunday night and some
south winds will keep temperatures relatively mild, likely
bottoming out in the upper 20s to mid 30s. There are slight
chances for light rain or wet snow during this period associated
with weak large scale lift as some subtle mid-level waves move
through the region; at this time it appears any precipitation
Sunday or Monday should be short-lived and very light. Continued
warming on southwesterly flow on Monday will lead to high
temperatures several degrees above normal. There are mixed
signals on how much cloud cover will be around during the day,
but potential for a warm and sunny day exists.
KEY MESSAGE 3: A period of rather seasonable but unsettled
weather is expected for next week, with several chances for
precipitation. A warm front lifting across the region Tuesday
into Wednesday will bring a round of precipitation to the
region, along a non-diurnal temperature trend as temperatures
warm overnight under strong southwesterly flow. High
temperatures across the region look to warm into the 50s and 60s
both Tuesday and Wednesday, although there is still some
uncertainty in exact temperatures due to model disagreement
regarding the boundary location and how quickly it moves out of
the region. Once the warm front exits the region, cooler air
looks to return for Thursday towards the end of the week, with
highs back in the 40s. Another system looks to approach the area
by Friday, bringing additional chances for precipitation.
Despite the unsettled weather pattern, the overall probability
of significant or highly impactful weather during this time
period looks low at the moment.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Through 00Z Sunday...VFR conditions are expected to prevail
across all terminals over the next 24 hours. Winds will
gradually diminish overnight, with lighter winds expected into
the morning hours. Cloud cover is expected to increase on
Saturday, but ceilings are expected to remain VFR. A few snow
showers will be possible during the afternoon, but given the low
confidence in exact timing and location of showers there is no
mention in the forecast at this time.
Outlook...
Saturday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Sunday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Sunday Night: VFR. Slight chance RA, Slight chance SN.
Monday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Monday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance RA,
Chance SN.
Tuesday: Mainly IFR, with areas MVFR possible. Likely RA.
Tuesday Night: Mainly MVFR, with areas IFR possible. Definite RA.
Wednesday: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Chance RA.
&&
.EQUIPMENT...
The Colchester Reef meteorological station is out of service.
This site is not serviced by the NWS. An estimated return to
service is May 1st. Please contact us if you observe winds
significantly deviating from the recreational forecast.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.
&&
$$
WHAT HAS CHANGED...Kutikoff
DISCUSSION...Kutikoff/Kremer
AVIATION...Neiles
EQUIPMENT...NWS BTV
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