241
FXUS61 KBTV 270640
AFDBTV
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
240 AM EDT Fri Mar 27 2026
.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
As of 236 AM EDT Friday...
Confidence has increased slightly in some isolated to scattered
light snow showers Saturday into Sunday.
&&
.KEY MESSAGES...
As of 236 AM EDT Friday...
1. Much colder and mainly dry conditions expected Today into
this weekend, with many locations remaining below freezing through
Sunday morning.
2. Following a mainly dry start to the week, a seasonably warm
and wetter period is expected midweek.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
As of 236 AM EDT Friday...
KEY MESSAGE 1: A cold front will continue to slide through the region
this morning leading to a tapering off of any lingering rain or snow
showers across the region. Behind the front for the rest of today,
high temperatures will struggle to reach the freezing mark with
values in the upper 20s to low 30s under strong northwesterly caa.
Southern Windsor and Rutland Counties may be able to break into the
mid 30s with some additional clearing skies and better diurnal
heating profiles. Breezy conditions this morning with gusts between
20-25 mph, will subside by this afternoon as we trend towards
lighter northerly winds 10-15 mph. With the breezes, feels like
temperatures this morning into the early afternoon will be in the
single digits to teens. Regardless, widespread clearing skies from
mid to upper level drying today, with a March sun angle, should make
it feel slightly warmer than the high temperatures would suggest.
Friday night will, in all likelihood, be the last true cold night of
the season as lows dip to the single digits for most locations
outside of southern Vermont and the Champlain Valley where lows will
fall to the low to mid teens. A few sheltered locations in the
Adirondacks and far northern Northeast Kingdom could potentially
near 0 degrees. Lows in general will not be record breaking by any
means, but rather 10 degrees below average. This unseasonable cold
air is supported by -15C to -19C 925 and 850mb temperatures. With
High pressure will build in for Saturday keeping the region under
unseasonably cool conditions with highs around 10-15 degrees below
normal. Highs will once again struggle to reach the freezing mark
areawide with highs in the mid 20s to low 30s, as northwest flow
continues to keep cool Canadian air funneled into the area.
Northwest flow will become breezy on Saturday which will help feels
like temperatures Notably, while there is moderate confidence in
calm weather on Saturday for most locations, lapse rates will be
relatively steep with some energy riding along the northern
periphery of the high pressure, which could lead to some isolated
convective light snow showers. Confidence is low in shower activity
given the high and dry air across the area, and any showers would
not cause any impacts as accumulations would be minimal with limited
moisture, bit some isolated chances (25-35% chance), mainly in the
higher terrain of the Adirondacks are possible. Light snow showers
(15-25% chance) will continue into Sunday as a warm front pass
through north of the region, but moisture will remain limited.
Temperatures Sunday with the warm front will rebound from Saturday
with highs into the 40s.
KEY MESSAGE 2: A weather pattern featuring faster than typical
westerly flow aloft will continue into early next week, allowing
for weak fronts and light mixed precipitation to be possible
with marginally cold air pushing out of southern Canada when low
level flow turns northerly. This pattern should be disrupted by
Wednesday when the jet stream retreats farther north and
entirely Pacific air, rather than mix of Polar and Pacific,
overspreads northern New York and Vermont. Currently there are
limited signals for significant weather. Only the very wettest
model guidance (under 5%) suggesting heavy rainfall, especially
for the Adirondacks.
That being said, a quasi-stationary front may set up to our
southwest with a long duration of overrunning precipitation
possible. The wettest cluster in the 12Z ensemble guidance shows a
24 hour precipitation average beginning Wednesday afternoon of over
an inch in western portions of northern New York, indicative of the
potential soaking rain during this period. That being said, there is
large variation in the position of the front, especially moving into
Wednesday night. Therefore, not only precipitation amounts but
temperatures become more uncertain, which could trend back to wintry
from north to south as shallow cold air is pushed southward. There
is a slight lean towards the warmer scenarios based on the latest
data, but it remains worth paying attention to as we approach this
wetter period.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Through 06Z Saturday...Aviation challenge is timing the
improving conditions from IFR/LIFR to MVFR/VFR across our taf
sties this morning. Currently a wide range of flight categories
from LIFR at MPV to IFR at BTV/RUT/SLK/EFK and MVFR at MSS and
VFR at PBG. Brisk north to northwest winds will continue to
slowly advect drier air with improving cigs/vis from north to
south across our taf sites this morning. The combination of low
level convergence and blocked flow, feel IFR cigs linger the
longest at RUT, while EFK should see improvement in the next 1
to 2 hours. Also, feel developing subsidence inversion will help
to push shallow moisture toward the surface at SLK, resulting
in additional IFR cigs thru 10/11z. Elsewhere, conditions should
improve to MVFR/VFR over the next 2 to 3 hours as localized
winds gust in the 15 to 25 knot range. Conditions continue to
improve to VFR as surface high pres develops on Friday with
lighter winds by mid afternoon and mostly sunny skies.
Outlook...
Saturday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Saturday Night: VFR. Chance SN.
Sunday: VFR. Slight chance SN.
Sunday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Monday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight chance RA.
Monday Night: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. Slight chance
RA, Slight chance SN.
Tuesday: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Chance RA, Chance
SN.
&&
.EQUIPMENT...
The Colchester Reef meteorological station is out of service.
This site is not serviced by the NWS. An estimated return to
service is May 1st. Please contact us if you observe winds
significantly deviating from the recreational forecast.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.
&&
$$
WHAT HAS CHANGED...Danzig
DISCUSSION...Kutikoff/Danzig
AVIATION...Taber
EQUIPMENT...NWS BTV
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