186
FXUS61 KBTV 160544
AFDBTV
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
144 AM EDT Tue Sep 16 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will continue to bring warming temperatures and
dry weather conditions to the region this week. A cold front
moving southeastward out of Canada will usher in a cooler air
mass for Friday and the upcoming weekend. However, measurable
precipitation is generally not expected with this cold front,
allowing drought conditions to persist across our region.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 114 AM EDT Tuesday...The prolonged stretch of dry weather
will continue across the region as surface high pressure and
upper level ridging continue to remain the dominant weather
feature. Another night with clear skies and radiational fog is
ongoing with some patchy across the area. However, given the
long detachment from precipitation, fog is not currently
widespread but is still expected to develop in the
climatologically favored areas as the night progresses.
Beyond sunrise today, another sunny and mainly clear sky is
anticipated. A few mid to upper clouds are possible in southern
Vermont from a decaying coastal low in the Mid-Atlantic,
however, the remainder of the area should enjoy another bluebird
sunny day. Temperatures will be in the upper 70s to near 80
with overnight lows tonight in the 50s for the valleys and 40s
for the higher terrain. Humidity will remain low (30-40%)
keeping the area on the comfortable side. Radiational cooling
and fog look likely once again tonight with fog development in
the favored locations. Wednesday will almost be a carbon copy
of today temperature wise with values hovering around 80.
Increasing mid to upper level cloud cover from the coastal low
will overspread the region as the system subsides and broadens.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 114 AM EDT Tuesday...Ridging will persist through mid week
into Thursday with cloud cover decreasing into Wednesday night.
Some radiational cooling in northern New York looks to be
favored Wednesday night, however, lingering cloud cover across
Vermont may limit efficient radiational cooling. Fog remains
possible in the favored locations Wednesday night, however,
further detachment from precipitation will start to limit the
spatial coverage of any fog in time.
High pressure will begin to break down Thursday as a trough
begins to approach the area from the northwest. A brief warming
trend ahead of the trough looks to take place with southerly to
southwesterly flow Thursday. Highs will be in the low 80s in
the Champlain Valley and upper 70s elsewhere. By Thursday
afternoon, clouds will begin to increase from the west across
northern New York.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 227 PM EDT Monday...The rex block will continue through
Thursday, before a potent trough digs down from the north on
Friday and breaks it up. It will cause the cutoff low that has
been lingering off the Mid-Atlantic to rejoin the circulation.
However, the trough will continue to dig south as it pushes off
over the Atlantic over the weekend, and ridging will amplify to
the west and move into the region. A cold front will come
through on Friday but it will be moisture starved. While a few
showers are possible, the strongest forcing will be well to the
east and dry air in place will help evaporate what falls.
Significant rain is not expected and GEFS/EPS/CAN ensemble
probabilities of more than a tenth of an inch are less than
thirty percent in the highest areas, and those probabilities are
probably on the high side. Temperatures will rise well above
climatological normals on Thursday, with temperatures in the 80s
expected outside the higher terrain. More seasonable or even
slightly below average temperatures arrive for the weekend, with
frost potential outside the broad valleys. After the front
moves through Friday, gusty winds and low relative humidities
could lead to fire weather concerns. While humidities will
likely approach and exceed critical values on Saturday, winds
will be much lighter.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Through 06Z Wednesday...The near term TAF challenge is the areal
coverage of fog through 12z this morning across our region.
Highest probability of fog with VLIFR conditions are at MPV/EFK
and intervals at SLK, similar to last night. Given cross over
values being reached and NAM/HRRR sounding data indicating near
boundary layer saturation, feel intervals of IFR are possible
at MSS btwn 07-11z with a 20 to 30% potential of IFR near
sunrise at BTV/PBG and RUT. All fog should lift btwn 12-1330Z
with VFR conditions prevailing. Light terrain driven winds
overnight will become north/northeast at 2 to 5 knots today.
Outlook...
Wednesday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Thursday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Thursday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. NO SIG WX.
Friday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. NO SIG WX.
Friday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Saturday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Danzig
NEAR TERM...Danzig
SHORT TERM...Danzig
LONG TERM...Myskowski
AVIATION...Taber
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