819
FXUS61 KBTV 300646
AFDBTV
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
246 AM EDT Sat May 30 2026
.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
As of 241 AM EDT Saturday...
No significant changes.
&&
.KEY MESSAGES...
As of 241 AM EDT Saturday...
1. Two rounds of showers this weekend and some flakes in the
mountains.
2. Patchy frost possible Saturday night.
3. Mainly tranquil weather mid-late week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
As of 241 AM EDT Saturday...
KEY MESSAGE 1: Round one of the showers is currently passing through
the region. Rainfall totals have reached the 0.75 -1.5 range across
much of Vermont, and the 0.1-0.3 range in northern New York with a
sharp gradient between them in the Champlain Valley. Localized
totals up to 1.75 inches have been observed across parts of the
Northeast Kingdom. Overall, rainfall rates are expected to decline
during the next few hours with up to an additional half inch
expected. The notable feature with this one is the cold temperatures
aloft. This has caused freezing levels to drop below summit levels.
Based on observed temperatures and radar correlation coefficient,
snow levels are likely between 2,500 and 3,500 feet. Above that
level, 1-3 inches are expected. In that range, a slushy coating is
likely. Lower temperatures aloft will be present farther east, and a
few flakes could drop down to 2,000-2500 feet across eastern
Vermont, though accumulations are not expected that low. A few
flakes will mix in the higher elevations in the Northeast Kingdom,
and could also occur in the higher elevations south through Groton
and into Orange County. The rain showers will exit early this
morning and some clearing should occur by afternoon, so today should
overall be a decent day with highs in the 50s to low 60s. The second
round of showers arrives Sunday afternoon and continues Sunday
night, though the dynamics will be weaker with this one.
Temperatures aloft will also be warmer, so snow levels should be
mostly above summit levels, though a few flakes cannot be completely
ruled out at the summits of the High Peaks. The highest rainfall
totals will again be across the Northeast Kingdom, but at most a
couple tenths of an inch are currently expected.
KEY MESSAGE 2: An unseasonably cool airmass will be present tonight and
daytime clouds for part of the day today should limit diurnal
heating a bit. Skies will gradually clear as the day goes on,
though, and by sunset they should be mostly clear. Boundary layer
flow will significantly weaken by sunset, and while some light winds
will likely continue during the night in exposed areas, the
protected hollows should have no trouble decoupling. These factors
will lead to relatively favorable radiational cooling conditions.
High clouds should gradually infiltrate the region as the night goes
on, but not before temperatures will be able to drop significantly
and the clouds could be too thin to have much of an effect on the
radiational cooling. Overall, temperatures in the 30-38 degree range
are expected across parts of the Adirondacks while temperatures
between 35-40 are expected in the Northeast Kingdom. Due to some
uncertainty with clouds and boundary layer winds, no frost headlines
were issued, but a Frost Advisory may be needed for the Adirondacks
if confidence increases in ideal radiational cooling conditions.
KEY MESSAGE 3: Current indications are that a narrow deep-layer ridge
will be our controlling weather feature for the Wednesday through
Friday period. This feature should bring light wind conditions along
with partly to mostly sunny daytime conditions. With moderating
850mb temperatures, expecting maximum temperatures to moderate from
the low-mid 70s on Wednesday, to the low-mid 80s for Thursday and
Friday. Humidity levels should remain modest with sfc dewpoints
remaining in the 50s. Consensus of 00Z Canadian/ECMWF/GFS and
associated model ensembles is for a frontal system to approach from
the Great Lakes/Ontario sometime Friday night into Saturday, June
6th. System is relatively quick moving when it eventually arrives,
but timing varies across the 00Z NWP suite. Currently forecasting 40-
50% PoPs for rain showers during the Friday night and Saturday
period, with timing representing the greatest uncertainty. If
deep- layer ridge axis holds, there`s a reasonable chance that
frontal rain showers would be delayed into the latter half of
the weekend.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Through 06Z Sunday...Through 12Z Sunday... Strong mid-level low
pressure system migrating southward across VT and nrn NY early this
morning will bring widespread light to moderate rainfall along with
MVFR conditions. Brief IFR ceilings will be possible through 13Z,
especially at KSLK with some briefly heavier rainfall. There is also
a band of LLWS which will impact KMPV and KRUT through 13Z before
exiting to our south. Increasing N-NE winds will bring clearing
during the mid-late morning hours as low departs...with a return to
VFR conditions areawide. Winds will remain moderately strong and
gusty thru the daylight hours, locally 20G30KT at BTV/MSS/PBG during
the late morning through afternoon period before subsiding toward
sunset. Light and variable wind conditions are expected during
Saturday night with generally VFR conditions continuing.
Outlook...
Sunday: VFR. Chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA.
Sunday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA.
Monday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Likely SHRA, Slight
chance TSRA.
Monday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday: VFR. Chance SHRA.
Tuesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
&&
.MARINE...
Winds have been increasing in the last few hours as they have
shifted towards northwesterly, and they are expected to
continue to increase in the next couple hours as they become
northerly. By sunrise, sustained winds should be in the 20-25
KT range with gusts up to 30 KT. Winds stay elevated this
morning but they should drop quickly heading through the
afternoon. They are expected to be below 10 KT by evening. Waves
of 1-2 feet will increase towards 2-4 feet, especially when
more sustained flow is established this morning. Wave heights
drop below 1 foot by evening.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.
&&
$$
WHAT HAS CHANGED...Myskowski
DISCUSSION...Banacos/Myskowski
AVIATION...Banacos
MARINE...NWS BTV
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