047
FXUS61 KBTV 110203
AFDBTV
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
1003 PM EDT Thu Jul 10 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
Scattered showers and thunderstorms will move through this afternoon
and evening. A few of these could be severe and localized flash
flooding is possible in the heaviest storms. The rain moves out
tonight and dry weather should mostly prevail through Saturday.
Shower chances increase Sunday as a weak cold front moves into the
region, but hot and humid conditions will prevail through much of
next week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 955 PM EDT Thursday...Active wx aftn acrs our region with
combination of isolated flash flooding and severe. The heaviest
rainfall foot prints occurred in Caledonia/Essex Counties in
the NEK and central Addison County in the CPV, where local obs
and radar estimates were in the 2 to 5 inch range. Still some
isolated to scattered activity over the central CPV and parts of
northern Dacks, which are moving at 10 to 20 mph. Localized
brief heavy down pours and lightning is likely within the
stronger core, but overall expect activity to decrease toward
midnight. Threat for additional flooding is decreasing with
faster movement and less coverage of convection. Have tried to
capture latest trends in the pops/qpf fields and did remove
mention of gusty winds in zns. Otherwise, expect areas of fog to
develop overnight, especially in the NEK.
Previous Discussion...Showers and storms have been moving
slowly through parts of northern and eastern Vermont this
morning. Additional showers have developed across the spine of
the Greens and parts of northern New York. Shower coverage will
continue to increase this afternoon and into the early evening
before it gradually diminishes late this evening and tonight. So
far, the heaviest showers have generally produced between 1-1.5
inches. Thankfully, the storms have been moving just fast
enough to prevent training and the atmosphere has been drying a
bit during the day, decreasing the PWATs. The lower PWATs are
helping keep rates a bit lower than they could be, but with
multiple rounds of showers expected, the areas of concern are
places that see multiple rounds of the heaviest showers. In
these areas, localized flash flooding is possible.
The storms this afternoon also have a severe threat. Surface CAPE
has increased to around 1,000 to 1,500 J for much of the region,
with parts of the ST. Lawrence Valley seeing values close to 2,000
J. The exception is some areas east of the Greens that are in a
cooler marine modified airmass off the Atlantic, where surface CAPE
values are below 1,000 J. 0-6 KM shear has increased to between 25-
30 KTs, and it will come up a little more this afternoon. Strong
synoptic forcing will be lacking, but there will be enough of a weak
surface boundary to provide lift. This weak forcing is noticeable in
how many of the storms have developed across the terrain this
morning.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
As of 1230 PM EDT Thursday...Surface high pressure builds into the
region for tomorrow and Saturday, bringing mostly dry weather. It
will be accompanied by a warming trend, with temperatures rising
into the 80s and low 90s this weekend. Dew points will also
gradually increase, with values increasing into the 60s to around
70. The temperatures and dew points should be just low enough to
prevent anywhere reaching Heat Advisory criteria, but it will be hot
and humid regardless.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 1230 PM EDT Thursday...A cold front attempts to make its way
through the region on Sunday into Monday but it mostly falls apart
before it can pass through. It will bring another round of showers
and storms, and some heavy rainfall will again be possible. While
ensemble guidance generally favors an overnight passage, some
members move it through in the afternoon, and an earlier passage
would lead to some thunderstorm potential. Since the front mostly
falls apart before it passes through, temperatures will continue to
be above climatological normals for much of the week and the
humidity will stay elevated. Currently, the first heat wave of the
season looks increasingly possible for Burlington, though the
magnitude of the heat will not be as strong as it was back in June.
The heat and humidity look to remain in place for the rest of the
work week before relief may arrive for the weekend.
&&
.AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Through 00Z Saturday...Brief MVFR/IFR conditions remain possible
with isolated to scattered thunderstorms; otherwise VFR
conditions should continue through about 06Z. Most likely sites
to see thunderstorms in the next six hours continues to be PBG
and MPV based on radar trends. After that time, think there is
enough cloud cover and low level southerly winds in Vermont to
limit fog development with fog more favored at MSS and SLK even
if little or no rain falls as an inversion will develop.
Conditionally if rain falls at BTV there may be fog development
overnight, and EFK and MPV are climatologically favored to see
at least some fog between 06 and 12Z. Winds will be continue to
be light/terrain driven with very weak pressure fields over the
area through the period. Precipitation chances dwindle after 06Z
with dry conditions especially after 12Z.
Outlook...
Friday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Saturday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA.
Saturday Night: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. NO SIG WX.
Sunday: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Chance TSRA, Slight
chance SHRA.
Sunday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA,
Slight chance TSRA.
Monday: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Likely SHRA, Slight
chance TSRA.
Monday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
Tuesday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Myskowski
NEAR TERM...Myskowski/Taber
SHORT TERM...Myskowski
LONG TERM...Myskowski
AVIATION...Kutikoff
|
