674
FXUS61 KBTV 310651
AFDBTV
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
251 AM EDT Sun May 31 2026
.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
As of 250 AM EDT Sunday...
Frost is likely a bit more widespread than previously thought this
morning.
&&
.KEY MESSAGES...
As of 250 AM EDT Sunday...
1. Additional rounds of showers today and tomorrow before
trending drier.
2. Patchy frost is forming and is possible again Monday night.
3. Warmer and drier period of weather is expected from Thursday
through Sunday.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
As of 250 AM EDT Sunday...
KEY MESSAGE 1: An additional shortwave passes down from the north
today, bringing another round of widespread showers. Cool
temperatures aloft and diurnal heating will help create marginal
instability, so a few rumbles of thunder are possible. With the
convection and low freezing levels, pea-sized hail is possible from
any of the stronger storms. Overall, precipitation amounts will be
much lighter than with the previous event, with rainfall totals only
up to a couple tenths of an inch. Temperatures aloft will also be
warmer, so snow levels should be mostly above summit levels, though
a few flakes cannot be completely ruled out at the summits of the
High Peaks. A few isolated showers will be possible Monday
afternoon, but the vast majority of the day will be dry. After that,
a dry stretch and a warming trend begin.
KEY MESSAGE 2: Radiational cooling conditions have been excellent for
the time of the year so far tonight, though high clouds are
beginning to stream down from the north. Temperatures have dropped
into the 30s in most places, except for parts of the St. Lawrence
and Champlain Valleys. The coldest temperatures observed so far have
been from the Adirondacks, Northeast Kingdom, and the rest of
central/eastern Vermont where values between 31 and 36 degrees have
been occurring in the colder areas. Temperatures may drop a couple
more degrees, but they are quickly approaching their dew points, the
high clouds are moving in, and sunrise is not too far off. Overall,
patchy frost is expected in the Adirondacks and any of the colder
hollows of the Green Mountain spine and points east. There is an
increasing likelihood of good radiational cooling conditions setting
up again Monday night, but the airmass will be slightly warmer than
this one. Despite that, patchy frost will again be possible in the
coldest hollows, mostly in the Adirondacks and Northeast Kingdom.
KEY MESSAGE 3: An upper level ridge will build into the area from
Wednesday night into early Friday. Maximum temperatures on Thursday
and Friday will be in the upper 70s to mid 80s. A weak surface front
will cross the area Friday bringing chance for rain showers.
Saturday and Sunday will remain pretty warm with temperatures just a
few degrees cooler than Thursday and Friday. A better chance for
showers will arrive Sunday with both a surface front and some decent
upper level shortwave energy. This far out, there is plenty of time
for things to shift a bit.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Through 06Z Monday...Conditions are VFR with high clouds at or
above 15000 ft. Winds will trend light and variable, and with
southeast drainage flow over KRUT during the night. Low pressure
will approach from the north beyond 13-15z. Scattered showers
will gradually become numerous in coverage from about 17z-02z
Monday. A few embedded thunderstorms are possible, and some
areas of lower visibilities and ceilings will be possible in
heavier precipitation, but broadly thinking -SHRA is appropriate
for now. Ceilings will fall towards 2500-5000 ft agl, and winds
are expected to trend west-northwest to northwest at 5-10 knots
during the daylight hours.
Outlook...
Monday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA.
Monday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
Tuesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Thursday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...Frost Advisory until 7 AM EDT this morning for VTZ004.
NY...None.
&&
$$
WHAT HAS CHANGED...Myskowski
DISCUSSION...Neiles/Myskowski
AVIATION...Neiles
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