265
FXUS61 KBTV 251907
AFDBTV
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
207 PM EST Wed Feb 25 2026
.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
As of 204 PM EST Wednesday...
Models have trended farther south and drier for the system on Monday.
&&
.KEY MESSAGES...
As of 204 PM EST Wednesday...
1. Heavy snow showers with possible snow squalls this
afternoon.
2. Brief windy warm up Friday night into Saturday
3. Sharply colder temperatures returning late this weekend and
early next week, then the potential for more precipitation and
milder temperatures towards the middle of next week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
As of 204 PM EST Wednesday...
KEY MESSAGE 1: A prefrontal trough moves through this afternoon and
evening, bringing some convective snow showers. Recent CAM runs have
brought down the instability and organization of the snow showers
this afternoon, so the chance of any specific area seeing a squall
has decreased, but the threat is still there. Regardless, scattered
heavy convective snow showers are still expected. The timing still
looks to be mid afternoon for much of northern New York, early
evening for the Champlain Valley and mid to late evening for the
rest of Vermont. While there should be a more organized broken line
moving through during the aforementioned timeline, a few snow
showers will continue to be possible for a few hours after, though
they will likely be lighter and more widely scattered. Overall, in
terms of ingredients, the threat is definitely on the lower end.
CAPE looks to max out over around 50 J, the frontogenesis should be
relatively weak and there is not a significant wind shift or
organized boundary.
KEY MESSAGE 2: A strong clipper passes by well to the north Friday
night into Saturday, causing significant warm air advection. Its
pressure looks to drop close to 980 mb, causing a southerly low
level jet to pass overhead. Gusty channeled flow in the Champlain
Valley and downsloping winds across the northern Adirondacks are
likely. Temperatures should rise into the 40s for most places, with
a run at 50 possible for parts of southern Vermont. The amount of
warming looks to depend on the timing and make up of the cold
frontal passage on the backside. An earlier passage would prevent
the full effects of diurnal heating and some rain/snow showers with
a prefrontal trough would cut back on temperatures, especially for
northern areas. Dew points will be low regardless, so melting would
be limited and any precipitation would cause notable wet-bulbing.
KEY MESSAGE 3: A cold front looks to push across the region Saturday
night into Sunday, followed by surface high pressure centered over
the Great Lakes/Canada, bringing some sharply colder temperatures
and scattered snow showers Sunday morning. Highs for northern New
York and Vermont on Sunday and Monday will be in the mid teens and
20s to start off meteorological spring. Lows over the weekend and
early week will be as low as -15 to 5 F. This will be 15-20 degrees
below seasonal normals (in both highs and lows) for early March.
Probability of precipitation increases again in southern portions of
the forecast area on Monday as a storm system cross the mid-
Atlantic, but deterministic models are spread on how far north this
system can get considering we`ll likely have the Canadian high
pressure pressing in from the north. Currently looking like the GFS
is out of sync with the ECMWF and Canadian in bringing precipitation
to our area. Temperatures look to trend towards seasonal averages
into the midweek as another system approaches the region during the
Tuesday-Wednesday time frame. Once again, the global models all
agree there`s something there, but don`t quite agree on the
timing/placement of precipitation. ECMWF is fastest with this wave
with Canadian and GFS lagging behind. The timing of the system will
also affect the timing and strength of potential milder air, so more
details to come as we see more model consensus.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Through 18Z Thursday...Scattered snow showers and possible embedded
snow squalls will continue across northern New York and advance
through Vermont this afternoon and evening. As of 18Z, snow showers
have begun across northern New York where sites are seeing
visibilities 4-7 miles. These snow showers are expected to continue
and move eastward to all other sites by around 22Z-23Z Wednesday.
These snow showers are also beginning to get heavier this afternoon,
and they could produce vis 1-3 miles or less briefly for periods of
time. KSLK is the most likely to have a sustained period of IFR vis
through about 00Z Thursday. Probability of IFR vis drops
significantly for all sites beyond 06Z Thursday, but lighter snow
showers may linger on and off over the next 24 hours. Most sites are
reporting ceilings around 1300-2700 feet above ground level outside
of the Champlain Valley this afternoon, where ceilings remain
3800-4800+ feet. The Champlain Valley sites may briefly join in the
MVFR ceilings around 02Z-04Z Thursday behind a line of snow showers,
but there is also the likely scenario that they remain VFR cigs for
the next 24 hours. Widespread VFR ceilings are anticipated to arrive
around 04Z-05Z Thursday, potentially earlier at KMSS. Winds are
currently gusting 15-25 knots out of the south and southeast at many
sites, and this should continue until around after the line of snow
showers moves through. Even then, some sites may continue to see
breezy weather for the next 24 hours.
Outlook...
Thursday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Friday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Friday Night: VFR. Windy with gusts to 30 kt. NO SIG WX.
Saturday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. NO SIG WX.
Saturday Night: VFR. Chance SN.
Sunday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SN.
Sunday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Monday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
&&
.EQUIPMENT...
The KMPV ASOS has suffered a communications failure. The issue
has been diagnosed, but there is currently no estimated time of
return to service. This communications line is not serviced by
the NWS. Terminal Aerodrome Forecasts will continue, but
amendments to those forecasts will be suspended.
NOAA Weather Radio station WXM-44, transmitting from Mt.
Ascutney, Vermont, on frequency 162.475 MHz is non- operational
at this time. NWS technicians have diagnosed the problem, but
repairs will likely not be able to occur for quite some time due
to circumstances beyond our control. Therefore, the time of
return to service is currently unknown. The following NOAA
Weather Radio transmitters may be able to provide service during
this outage: WWG 50 from Burke Mtn, VT at 162.425 MHz and WNG
546 from Hanover, NH at 162.525 MHz.
The Colchester Reef meteorological station is out of service.
This site is not serviced by the NWS and there isn`t an
estimated return to service at present. Please contact us if you
observe winds significantly deviating from the recreational
forecast.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.
&&
$$
WHAT HAS CHANGED...Myskowski
DISCUSSION...Storm/Myskowski
AVIATION...Storm
EQUIPMENT...NWS BTV
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