043
FXUS61 KBTV 040552
AFDBTV
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
152 AM EDT Mon May 4 2026
.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
As of 248 PM EDT Sunday...
No significant changes.
&&
.KEY MESSAGES...
As of 248 PM EDT Sunday...
1. Mostly quiet weather through tomorrow night.
2. Showers arrive Tuesday afternoon and evening, preceded by
windy conditions.
3. No major impacts or significant weather expected late week
into next weekend, as pattern continues to support unsettled
conditions with below normal temperatures.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
As of 248 PM EDT Sunday...
KEY MESSAGE 1: Weak ridging dominates through tomorrow night, bringing
mostly dry weather. The exception is tonight, where a few scattered
showers move through. They will be light with only a few hundredths
of precipitation falling at most. These will be snow showers in the
mountains where a light dusting is possible in the highest peaks.
Temperatures will return to seasonable normals for Monday with highs
in the 60s.
KEY MESSAGE 2: A cold front pushes into the region Tuesday afternoon
and evening, bringing a line of showers. While a few scattered
showers are possible earlier, the organized precipitation looks to
enter northern New York in the afternoon and Vermont in the evening.
Enough heating looks to occur ahead of it that CAPE values rise to
around 250 to 500 J. The limiting feature for storm development will
be moisture, with surface dew points looking to be in the 40s and
low 50s at the time of the precipitation`s arrival. While there is
abundant deep layer shear, due to the limited instability, strong to
severe storms currently look unlikely, though a few rumbles of
thunder are possible. The area to watch would be if something
develops along a pre-frontal trough in the afternoon, something akin
to what the NAM3 has, though its dew points currently look too high.
However the scenario will be watched as it enters the range of the
other CAMs. Widespread showers should occur Tuesday night as the
front slows down across the region, but by that point, the
precipitation should be mostly stratiform and synoptically forced.
Out ahead of the precipitation, a strong southwesterly low-level jet
moves overhead. Gusts in the 25-35 mph look likely, with locally
higher values possible in the St. Lawrence Valley and northern
Adirondacks due to channeling and downsloping.
KEY MESSAGE 3: Not much change from the previous long term outlook as
the trend of a less phased and progressive trough passage continues
for mid to late week. Ridging across the western CONUS will lead to
positively tilted troughing across the Northeast CONUS with several
embedded shortwaves. Phasing between a northern stream of energy and
a southern stream of energy riding up from the central Plains
continues to trend unlikely with a more eastward shift to the
central axis of moisture. The NAEFS ensemble denotes this well with
moisture anomalies more centered over New Hampshire and southern New
England. Regardless, shortwave passages will trend temperatures
cooler for the later portion of the week with the coolest day based
on thickness values and 925 to 850 mb thermal profiles likely on
Friday. Daytime highs will be in the upper 30s to near 40 for
summits and in the low to mid 50s for the wider valleys.
Precipitation chances, regardless of system phasing, WPC still
appears to denote chance pops in the higher terrain and chance pops
in the valleys which is reasonable given cooling aloft and low level
instability which should garner some isolated to scattered showers
through the end of the week. This, however, does show a slight trend
down in PoPs from previous runs, showing the uncertainty of the late
week systems. Given the lack of strong high pres directly overhead
and the potential for clouds, the probability of widespread frost in
areas where the growing season has started is low attm.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Through 06Z Tuesday...Across a relatively compact area showers are
pushing eastward across the airspace this morning. They should
mainly affect northern terminals between about 08Z and 14Z.
Brief MVFR visibilities and/or ceilings during these showers are
possible, but used mainly PROB30 groups given scattered nature
of the showers, particularly at Vermont sites.
Otherwise, ceilings should be generally 3 to 7 thousand feet
agl, except at SLK where upslope flow and advection of moist air
has led to ceilings at 900 feet as of 0530Z. Think this could
persist before showers arrive, with some slight improvement to
MVFR conditions favored thereafter. Clouds are expected to
become broken and trend scattered after showers pass this
afternoon.
Mixing of southwesterly boundary layer winds will result in
some low level turbulence during the afternoon. The low level
jet will strengthen after 00Z leading to resumption of LLWS late
in the period. Flight conditions will remain VFR.
Outlook...
Tuesday: VFR. Windy with gusts to 30 kt. Chance SHRA, Slight
chance TSRA.
Tuesday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Definite
SHRA.
Wednesday: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Definite SHRA.
Wednesday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance
SHRA.
Thursday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
Thursday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA.
Friday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.
&&
$$
WHAT HAS CHANGED...Myskowski
DISCUSSION...Myskowski/Danzig
AVIATION...Kutikoff
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