132
FXUS61 KBTV 030558
AFDBTV
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
158 AM EDT Wed Jun 3 2026
.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
As of 157 AM EDT Wednesday...
No significant changes to the forecast.
&&
.KEY MESSAGES...
As of 157 AM EDT Wednesday...
1. Dry and warm weather is expected from today through Friday
as surface and upper level ridges build over the region.
2. Warm and showery conditions, possibly with thunderstorms,
for the weekend, with a return to dry weather into next week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
As of 157 AM EDT Wednesday...
KEY MESSAGE 1: Warming temperatures are expected over the next
few days with maximum temperatures ranging through the 80s each
afternoon. Large ridges of surface and upper level high pressure
will be over the northeastern CONUS. Minimum temperatures will
range through the 50s and 60s each overnight. The high will
start to break down and slide southeastward on Friday making way
for approaching low pressure system which will bring rain to
our area over the weekend. Dewpoints will remain pretty low
through the period, therefore comfortable humidity levels and we
don`t have to be concerned about heat risk this time.
KEY MESSAGE 2: An upper trough is progged to ride along the
northern periphery of an southward retreating upper ridge across
our region heading into the weekend, is association with an
area of cyclonic flow over the Great Lakes Sunday. A slow moving
frontal boundary will slide south over the course of the
weekend with precipitation chances Saturday greatest over the
International Border and St. Lawrence Valley, shifting south
into the rest of the region on Sunday. Depending on cloud cover
associated with the front, in addition to how much daytime
heating occurs, some rumbles of thunder are possible both
Saturday and Sunday afternoon, though overall dynamic guidance
denotes only marginal thunder possibilities. More notably is
that precipitable water forecast is consistently around 1.5 to
1.75 inches in both the deterministic, AI, and ensemble models.
As a result any showers could have locally heavy rain associated
with them, in addition to any possible thunderstorm activity.
Precipitable water forecasts across the St. Lawrence Valley and
eastern Vermont are in the 90th percentile Saturday afternoon
into Sunday morning on the NAEFS. Given the extent of the
dryness leading up to the rain this weekend, do not anticipate
much concern with regards to a flood risk, though some river
rises can be expected especially if a basin receives any
thunderstorms Saturday, followed by additional steadier light
rain Sunday.
Temperatures this weekend will cool to more seasonable levels
with highs in the mid to upper 70s to near 80, with comfortable
humidity levels as dewpoints look to be in the upper 40s to low
50s. Into early next week, large scale ridging looks to build in
from the northwest with ensembles favoring a return to dry and
warm conditions.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Through 06Z Thursday...High confidence in all terminal VFR
conditions through the entire TAF period. There is a low chance
of some 6SM mist near MSS (25% or less) similar to last night,
though confidence is lower this morning and was left out of the
TAF. Weak LLWS also may be present early this morning due to
calm surface winds and a 20 to 25 knot at 2000ft agl, though any
LLWS will decrease with sunrise and impacts will be minimal.
Light northwest gradient flow will develop between 12 and 15Z
this morning with winds 10 knots or less expected. A lake breeze
is likely at PBG into this afternoon. Winds will trend calm
once again beyond sunset this evening. MSS should see persistent
west to southwest flow into tonight due to some subtle
channeled flow. High clouds this morning will trend clear during
the day, with a return of high clouds by this evening.
Outlook...
Thursday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Thursday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Friday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Friday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA,
Slight chance TSRA.
Saturday: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. Likely SHRA,
Chance TSRA.
Saturday Night: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. Chance SHRA, Slight
chance TSRA.
Sunday: Mainly MVFR, with areas IFR possible. Likely SHRA.
&&
.CLIMATE...
Temperatures will be approaching daily record maximums on
Thursday. At this time, Plattsburgh (PBG) has the greatest
likelihood of reaching its current record of 88 degrees set on
June 4th, 1967.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.
&&
$$
WHAT HAS CHANGED...Neiles
DISCUSSION...Neiles/Danzig
AVIATION...Danzig
CLIMATE...NWS BTV
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