384
FXUS61 KBTV 211123
AFDBTV
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
723 AM EDT Sat Mar 21 2026
.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
As of 258 AM EDT Saturday...
A Winter Weather Advisory has been issues for portions of northern
New York and Vermont from 8 PM Saturday through 8 AM Monday.
&&
.KEY MESSAGES...
As of 258 AM EDT Saturday...
1. Another clipper to move across the North Country and
northern New York Saturday night into Monday morning.
2. Seasonally cool and drier to start next week.
3. Active weather continues Wednesday through Friday with two
systems projected to move through the region during that time frame.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
As of 258 AM EDT Saturday...
KEY MESSAGE 1: We remain in a very active zonal longwave pattern with
periodic shortwave energy helping to develop weak surface low
pressure systems. Another one of these systems is expected to move
across the Great Lakes and towards northern New York Saturday night
with widespread snowfall expected to fall. Models continue to flip-
flop on whether the low center tracks over us, south of us, or north
of us which unfortunately has serious implications on the forecast.
The latest 00Z ensemble guidance is finally showing some clustering
with the low center tracking south of our forecast area. For us,
that would lead to a more widespread snowfall event with some rain
mixing into the wider valleys during the afternoon hours on Sunday.
However, subtle changes in the low track could either increase or
decrease snowfall amounts as more rain and warmer temperatures could
work into the region. However, confidence is growing that we will
see 2 to 4 inches of snow in the Champlain and St. Lawrence Valleys
while the Adirondacks and central/eastern Vermont will generally see
3 to 6 inches of snow. Some upslope is expected across the western
slopes of the Green Mountains where summit sites could see 6 to 10
inches of new snow. Thus, we have issued a Winter Weather Advisory
for the Adirondacks and central/eastern Vermont from 8 PM Saturday
through 8 AM Monday.
KEY MESSAGE 2: Following the weekend clipper, strong surface high
pressure is expected to situate across the region. Subsidence from
the building high pressure will help dry out the low to mid levels
leading to a break in the recent active precipitation regime.
However, we will remain under the influence of an upper level trough
with anomalously cool temperatures at the 850 mb and 500 mb levels.
This will help keep temperatures about 5 degrees below seasonal
normals but nothing too atypical for late March.
KEY MESSAGE 3: Temperatures are likely to trend a few degrees below
seasonal average mid week into the weekend as the storm track
remains draped across the Northeast under broad cyclonic 500mb flow.
This pattern favors fast moving waves and clipper-style systems.
Guidance points to above freezing daytime temperatures for area
valleys and overnight lows below freezing - a good cycle for maple
production. Models continue to point to a potentially impactful
system to move through Thursday, but system trajectory will be key.
For now, kept daytime rain and rain/snow chances with overnight snow
showers. The biggest limiting factor for this system will be its
speed at which it moves through, but as we saw yesterday, frontal
character matters - so we will continue to watch evolution in case
strong forcing signatures develop. Another wave will quickly follow
on Friday with additional chances for elevation dependent snowfall.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Through 12Z Sunday...Overnight IFR conditions are lifting as
expected with a transition to mainly MVFR for most terminals.
The holdout has been RUT where some light snow, mist, OVC004
are ongoing` this should improve by 15Z. Elsewhere, continued
CIG improvement is expected with VFR conditions by 18Z. 02-06Z
the next round of snow begins with CIGs/VIS lowering and IFR
becoming more prevalent 08-12Z.
Outlook...
Sunday: Mainly MVFR, with areas IFR possible. Definite SN,
Definite RA.
Sunday Night: Mainly MVFR, with local VFR possible. Chance SN.
Monday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Slight chance SN.
Monday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHSN.
Wednesday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHSN,
Chance SHRA.
&&
.EQUIPMENT...
The Colchester Reef meteorological station is out of service.
This site is not serviced by the NWS and there isn`t an
estimated return to service at present. Please contact us if you
observe winds significantly deviating from the recreational
forecast.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...Winter Weather Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 8 AM EDT
Monday for VTZ003-004-006>008-010-017>021.
NY...Winter Weather Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 8 AM EDT
Monday for NYZ027-030-031-034.
&&
$$
WHAT HAS CHANGED...Clay
DISCUSSION...Clay/Boyd
AVIATION...Boyd
EQUIPMENT...NWS BTV
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