081
FXUS61 KBTV 310510
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
110 AM EDT Sun May 31 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
As of 728 PM EDT Saturday...

Watching the clouds and their make up, it seems some of the
cloud cover is more likely to miss far northeastern Vermont.
Temperatures were slightly reduced in the Northeast Kingdom,
and Essex County, Vermont has been added into a Frost Advisory
in effect for tonight.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
As of 229 PM EDT Saturday...

1. Unseasonably cool temperatures continue through the weekend,
with areas of patchy frost possible tonight.

2.  Another round of showers is expected tomorrow afternoon
into the evening, with more scattered showers possible on Monday.

3. A warming trend is expected for the latter half of next
week, with temperatures warming into the 80s by Friday,

&&

.DISCUSSION...
As of 229 PM EDT Saturday...

KEY MESSAGE 1: After a rainy start to the day, drier conditions and
partly sunny skies prevail across the region this afternoon. Despite
the sunshine, high temperatures will only reach the upper 50s and
lower 60s, nearly 10 degrees or so below climatological normals for
the end of May. This unseasonably cool airmass will allow for cold
overnight lows, with temperatures dipping into the 30s and 40s
areawide. Although the night will start out relatively clear, cloud
cover moving into the region overnight will help limit the overall
frost potential, but areas of patchy frost will be possible,
especially in portions of the Adirondacks and eastern Vermont. In
addition to the frost, some fog development may be possible as well
given the recent rainfall. Temperatures tomorrow look to be a few
degrees warmer, with highs generally in the 60s areawide.

KEY MESSAGE 2: After a brief break in the precipitation, another
shortwave is expected to move through the region later in the day
tomorrow, bringing another round of showers. Compared to the most
recent precipitation, lighter rainfall amounts are expected with
most locations receiving anywhere from a few hundredths of an inch
to a quarter of an inch of liquid. As we head into the beginning of
the week, additional shower chances will be possible throughout the
day on Monday, driven by steep lapse rates and diurnal heating
rather than a clear shortwave or boundary. Any precipitation with
these showers would be rather light given the scattered nature.
Temperatures will continue to be seasonable cool on Monday as well
with possible showers and clouds, with highs once again in the 60s.

KEY MESSAGE 3: Ridging will take hold for a good part of late next
week, keeping us warm and dry. Low pressure will develop off the
Carolina coast Wednesday and trek northeastward through the end of
the week. At this time, any impacts from this system will remain
well to our southeast as the track will stay offshore. However,
precipitation chances will increase later Friday into the weekend as
yet another upper trough will swing down across eastern Canada and
into northern New England. Should this pattern hold, it would likely
be accompanied by a cold frontal passage and showers/possible
thunderstorms. Until then though, mild and dry weather is expected
under the aforementioned high pressure. Highs on Wednesday will be
in the 70s areawide, then warming into the upper 70s to mid 80s by
Friday. Luckily dewpoints look to remain relatively comfortable in
the 40s and 50s, so humidity won`t be too oppressive.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Through 06Z Monday...Conditions are VFR with high clouds at or
above 15000 ft. Winds will trend light and variable, and with
southeast drainage flow over KRUT during the night. Low pressure
will approach from the north beyond 13-15z. Scattered showers
will gradually become numerous in coverage from about 17z-02z
Monday. A few embedded thunderstorms are possible, and some
areas of lower visibilities and ceilings will be possible in
heavier precipitation, but broadly thinking -SHRA is appropriate
for now. Ceilings will fall towards 2500-5000 ft agl, and winds
are expected to trend west-northwest to northwest at 5-10 knots
during the daylight hours.

Outlook...

Monday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA.
Monday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
Tuesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Thursday: VFR. NO SIG WX.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...Frost Advisory until 7 AM EDT this morning for VTZ004.
NY...None.

&&

$$

WHAT HAS CHANGED...Haynes/Kremer
DISCUSSION...Kremer/Hastings
AVIATION...Neiles