945
FXUS61 KBTV 072323
AFDBTV
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
723 PM EDT Tue Apr 7 2026
.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
As of 649 PM EDT Tuesday...
Increased PoPs over the next few hours as snow showers remain
persistent but become localized.
&&
.KEY MESSAGES...
As of 244 PM EDT Tuesday...
1. Snow showers quickly dissipate this evening with much below
normal temperatures expected tonight.
2. Near critical fire weather conditions possible for parts of
the area on Thursday due to gusty winds and low humidities.
3. After a late week frontal passage, seasonable and mostly dry
conditions will follow for the weekend. Additional rain chances are
expected through early next week with abnormally warm temperatures.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
As of 244 PM EDT Tuesday...
KEY MESSAGE 1: Interesting early April conditions acrs our fa today,
with potent s/w energy and pocket of favorable mid lvl moisture,
combined with favorable instability parameters to produce
widespread convective type snow showers. Stowe high elevation
snow plot cam indicates 3-4 inches of snow has accumulated,
with just over an inch here at BTV. Moderately strong caa has
developed on brisk northwest flow, as temps have dropped to 29F
here at BTV with 17F atop Whiteface summit as weak low pres
tracks toward Cape Cod. GOES-19 visible satl imagery shows
quickly dissipating cloud cover approaching SLV with sfc dwpts
falling back into the lower single digits, as much drier air
advects into the region. Expect any lingering snow showers to
dissipate by sunset this evening with drier air and loss of sfc
heating/instability. Temps with areas of fresh snow pack and
building 1036mb high pres should drop quickly after sunset. Have
trended lows toward cooler guidance with values in the single
digits to near 20F, coldest SLK/NEK.
Weds should feature plenty of sunshine with 1036mb high pres
directly overhead with deep dry layer and light winds. Have
continued to trend sfc dwpts near the NBM 10th percentile, which
supports RH values in the 20% to 35% range. Winds wl be trrn driven
and under 8 mph. Highs range from near 32F summits to mid/upper 40s
deeper valleys.
KEY MESSAGE 2: Near critical fire weather conditions possible for parts of
the area on Thursday due to gusty winds and low humidities. The
strongest winds are expected over the northern Champlain Valley
and parts of northern NY, while the lowest humidities will be
across the deeper valleys locations of VT on Thurs aftn.
Mid/upper lvl trof and associated weakening boundary approach
our cwa on Thursday with strengthening low lvl wind fields.
Progged 925mb to 850mb winds increase btwn 30 and 50 knots on
Thurs, while high pres is shifting off the East Coast. Soundings
at BTV show inversion height around 925mb with top of the mixed
layer of 40 knots, so anticipate enhanced channeled flow acrs
the northern/central CPV on Thurs morning. Localized gusts 30 to
40 mph possible around sunrise at BTV. As sfc heating occurs
mixing heights increase to 900mb, which wl continue to produce
localized gusts up to 40 mph, but also help to mix drier air
near ridgetops toward the sfc. Have utilized NBM 10th percentile
dwpts to lower min RH values into the 22% to 35% range, with
driest air acrs central/eastern VT. Winds wl be lighter in the
CT River Valley and parts of central/northern VT, including the
NEK with gusts in the 15 to 30 mph range, as stronger gradient
is acrs the CPV and parts of northern NY on Thurs. Depending
upon how quickly fine fuels dry out on Weds and after
coordination with our fire weather partners, we may need an SPS
for near critical fire weather conditions. Progged 925mb temps
in the 6-10C with favorable southerly flow support highs well
into the upper 50s to mid 60s, especially downslope areas of the
northern Dacks and parts of the CPV away from Lake Champlain.
KEY MESSAGE 3: A frontal system is forecast to track across the area
Friday bringing chances for rain for most of the region, through
uncertainty in amounts remains. Models have trended towards a
wetting rain with a low that tracks either over or just north of the
region. Ensembles denote precipitation totals between 0.25-0.5
inches, with solutions favoring an overhead track yielding the
higher threshold precipitation amounts. These higher solutions
include the GFS, whereas lesser amount solutions include the ECMWF.
Regardless, widespread precipitation chances exist during the day
Friday before clearing out Friday night. More seasonable
temperatures will follow this system for the weekend with more dry
and seasonable conditions. Daytime highs will be in the 50s with
overnight lows in the mid to upper 30s as high pressure builds in
Saturday. Saturday night will be the cooler of the two days as the
high crests over the region.
Temperatures will begin a warming trend heading into next week as
our flow becomes south dominant with our high sliding east. 925mb
temps will warm to 15-20C Monday and Tuesday, peaking Tuesday
afternoon. These warm upper air temperatures will support surface
highs in the mid to upper 60s, and perhaps near 70 degrees to start
next week. These warm temperatures will be accompanied by breezy to
gusty afternoon winds and shower chances as a boundary will be
draped to the northwest. Shortwaves will ride along a positively-
tilted long wave trough across the Great Lakes leading to rounds of
shower chances, mainly across northern New York and extreme
northwestern Vermont which could inhibit the max heating during the
afternoon hours. A low level 850mb jet between 50-60 MPH will also
lead to breezy to gusty winds in the south to north oriented valleys
in addition to the warmup expected. Mid April looks to give a us a
renewed taste of the summer to come.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Through 00Z Thursday...A stationary frontal boundary sits draped
across northern New York and Vermont this evening, continuing to
produce snow showers across the region. This along with blocked
flow will continue changeable conditions over the next few
hours. Most sites are reporting MVFR or VFR ceilings anywhere
from 1100-5000 feet above ground level. Snow showers are
expected to dissipate this evening, but have been causing
visibilities as low as 1-3 miles over the past hour. As drier
air flows into the forecast area, we anticipate VFR ceilings to
become widespread by around 02Z-03Z Wednesday. Snow showers are
forecast to linger longest at SLK, EFK, and RUT, finally coming
to an end around 04Z-06Z Wednesday as skies clear. Winds
currently out of a number of directions, largely terrain-
influenced, should become lighter and potentially even calm by
around 06Z-10Z Wednesday for some.
We continue to see the GLAMP model project IFR fog tonight in
several locations, though run to run it is not consistent. It is
possible that the GLAMP is underestimating the dry dew points
that are observed in real time moving toward the region and
believes temperatures crossing dew point thresholds tonight will
result in fog. Several high resolution models also maintain a
light but persistent surface level wind in many spots throughout
the night that could prevent or at least break up patches of
fog. We can`t entirely discount the GLAMP considering the close
proximity of the stationary boundary previously mentioned and
the incoming clear skies/potential calm conditions, but at this
time, the observed dry air and the general model consensus has
us keeping fog out of the TAFs other than a period of 3 miles
vis at SLK. Winds will increase again out of the south-southwest
around 12Z-18Z Wednesday but remain under 10-15 knots.
Outlook...
Wednesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Thursday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Thursday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
Friday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA.
Friday Night: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Chance SHRA.
Saturday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. NO SIG WX.
Saturday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Sunday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
&&
.EQUIPMENT...
The Colchester Reef meteorological station is out of service.
This site is not serviced by the NWS. An estimated return to
service is May 1st. Please contact us if you observe winds
significantly deviating from the recreational forecast.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.
&&
$$
WHAT HAS CHANGED...Storm
DISCUSSION...Danzig/Taber
AVIATION...Storm
EQUIPMENT...NWS BTV
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