188
FXUS61 KBTV 270651
AFDBTV
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
251 AM EDT Wed May 27 2026
.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
As of 250 AM EDT Wednesday...
No significant changes.
&&
.KEY MESSAGES...
As of 250 AM EDT Wednesday...
1. Trending showery and cooler heading into the end of the
week.
2. Unsettled with below normal temperatures on Sunday into
early next week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
As of 250 AM EDT Wednesday...
KEY MESSAGE 1: A cold front comes through today and it will begin a
trend of gradually cooling temperatures, with them reaching their
nadir on Saturday. The front will come through without fanfare and
mostly dry conditions will prevail through Thursday night, though a
few isolated showers are expected Thursday. A deep upper-level low
moves through Friday night into Saturday, bringing anomalously cold
air for the time of year. Its passage will cause widespread showers
due to the forcing and instability caused by the cold air aloft.
Snow levels will likely drop below summit levels, though any snow
showers should remain in the mountains. There is still some model
uncertainty on the time of the passage of the core of the low and
associated showers. A GEFS/CMC/EPS ensemble mean brings the lowest
temperatures aloft late Friday night and early Saturday morning, but
some guidance like the GFS brings it through Friday evening.
Saturday will likely be showery and cool, though there is the
possibility of an earlier passage that keeps Saturday mostly dry, a
bit warmer and with some clearing in the afternoon.
KEY MESSAGE 2: The large scale pattern continues to indicate a highly
amplified omega block acrs the CONUS, which is relatively stable
with minimal change. Always challenging to predict when this omega
blocking pattern breaks down and the associated change in wx. For
Sunday, additional northern stream s/w energy and pocket of mid lvl
moisture wl cross acrs our cwa, with more showers and a few embedded
rumbles of thunder possible. GFS sounding data shows 200-400 J/kg
with highest values over northern NY, along with steepening low to
mid lvl lapse rates from sfc heating and cool pool aloft. This is
not a severe setup, just a few shallow convective cells capable of a
rumble or two of lightning. Highs on Sunday mostly in the 60s with
high 35 to 50% probability of precip.
Mid/upper lvl trof prevails acrs the NE CONUS for early next week
with additional threat for showers. Difficult to time individual
s/w`s and placement of deepest moisture, but given general
troughiness, pattern looks unsettled. In addition, the lack of sfc
heating and northern flow wl suppress best instability well south of
our cwa thru midweek, so probability of any strong or severe weather
is very low thru mid week. Progged 925mb temps warm a couple degrees
by Monday, supporting highs in the mid 60s to lower 70s. By midweek
progged 925mb temps warm btwn 12-15C, supporting highs back into the
70s to near 80F with increasing potential for sunshine as Central
Plains ridge slowly builds eastward toward our cwa. Lows generally
in the mid 40s to mid 50s through the midweek of next week with
comfortable humidity values.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Through 06Z Thursday...Surface analysis places a cold front and
associated wind shift approaching Montreal this morning, with
limited moisture. Expect boundary to be across our TAF sites
between 12-16Z this morning with winds shifting to the
north/northwest at 5 to 10 knots. VFR conditions with multiple
layers of mid/upper lvl clouds will prevail at all our taf sites
for the next 12 to 24 hours. No fog or mist tonight given
stronger wind profiles and drier air near the surface.
Outlook...
Thursday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight chance
SHRA.
Thursday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Friday: VFR. Chance SHRA.
Friday Night: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. Definite
SHRA.
Saturday: VFR/MVFR conditions possible. Chance SHRA.
Saturday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Sunday: VFR. Chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.
&&
$$
WHAT HAS CHANGED...Myskowski
DISCUSSION...Myskowski/Taber
AVIATION...Taber
|
