190
FXUS61 KBTV 230623
AFDBTV
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
223 AM EDT Thu Jul 23 2026
.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
As of 223 AM EDT Thursday...
No significant changes were made with this forecast.
&&
.KEY MESSAGES...
As of 223 AM EDT Thursday...
1. Dry and seasonably warm weather will continue through the
end of the week as high pressure settles over the region.
2. Showers and thunderstorms are likely to return to the region
next week as a series of shortwaves cross the Northeast, ushering in
seasonably cooler conditions by midweek.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
As of 223 AM EDT Thursday...
KEY MESSAGE 1: An upper trough is pivoting across Quebec and northern
New England/NY early this morning. Meanwhile, surface high pressure
is building eastward across the Great Lakes. The upper trough is
mainly producing just some scattered cloud cover, though some light
rain has been noted over southern portions of St Lawrence County.
The incoming airmass associated with the high is quite dry, so
anticipate this will wane over the next few hours as ridging moves
overhead. This fair weather will settle over our area for the
remainder of the week. Each day will feature plentiful sunshine,
with highs gradually increasing as we head into the weekend. We`ll
start out with highs in the 70s to around 80F today, and topping out
in the 80s to near 90F by Saturday and Sunday. Thankfully, humidity
will remain at comfortable levels as dewpoints are expected to be in
the 40s and 50s, perhaps nudging into the low 60s by Sunday. The dry
air and mostly clear skies will result in optimal radiational
cooling tonight and Thursday night, and lows will be in the mid 40s
to mid 50s both nights. Winds could be a little on the breezy side
this afternoon, but these should lessen by tonight as the pressure
gradient slackens. A cold front starts to approach from
Ontario/Great Lakes later Sunday, and some guidance indicates that a
few showers/thunderstorms may make it into northern NY before
sunset. However, general expectations are the bulk of any
precipitation will hold off until after dark.
KEY MESSAGE 2: Upper level closed low pressure will rotate across the
Hudson Bay into Quebec for much of next week, sending a series of
shortwaves through northern New York and Vermont. The first is set
to move through Sunday night, though high pressure and drier air
locked in across Nova Scotia looks to hinder its eastward
progression through the forecast area and limit measurable
precipitation. Chances of a shower or thunderstorm Sunday night are
around 0 to 25%, highest across northern New York. Southerly to
southwesterly flow will keep low temperatures seasonable to warm in
the mid 50s to mid 60s Sunday night, then allow temps to climb into
the upper 70s to mid 80s on Monday despite scattered showers and
thunderstorms (20 to 60% chance precip, highest in northern New
York) as moisture finally lifts into the region. Lingering showers
and clouds Monday night will keep temperatures seasonably warm in
the mid 50s to mid 60s again before a weak surface low crosses the
Great Lakes and another low pressure strengthens in the mid-Atlantic
on Tuesday, bringing a more widespread round of showers and
thunderstorms to the region. Tuesday afternoon looks like the most
likely period for some showers and thunderstorms with 60-80% chance
of measurable precipitation as some deterministic models are
depicting the shortwave as a closed low aloft, but this may change
as we get closer. As waves pass through next week, they will take
with them small chunks of heat and moisture, gradually knocking our
temperatures and humidity levels down into midweek. By next
Wednesday, highs will be widespread 70s, and lows should fall into
the 50s and lower 60s, all slightly below seasonal normals.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Through 06Z Friday...VFR conditions will likely prevail at all TAF
sites over the next 24 hours with the exception of SLK and MPV.
Given the recent rainfall, there is the potential for some MVFR or
lower conditions to occur at SLK and MPV around 08Z-14Z Thursday due
to fog development. There remains some question, however, on the
timing and persistence of any fog, especially as winds persist at
MPV and clouds are headed for SLK to cut off radiational cooling. At
the moment, using model data and climatological history, highest
chance of IFR/LIFR will be from 08Z through 11Z Thursday at SLK, but
this could chance based on cloud positioning and winds as we move
through the early morning hours. Otherwise, high pressure building
through the end of the week will bring dry weather. Current
northwesterly winds are expected to turn more southwesterly early
this morning, with many sites becoming light or even calm. A
northwesterly low level jet aloft could produce a few hours of LLWS
at northern sites like SLK and EFK as it passes from west to east
early this morning. Then around 14Z-17Z Thursday, surface winds will
increase again out of the west-northwest 5-15 knots, with
southwesterly flow persisting in the St. Lawrence Valley and
resulting in gusts at MSS 10-20 knots due to channeled flow 17Z
Thursday onwards.
Outlook...
Friday: VFR.
Friday Night: VFR.
Saturday: VFR.
Saturday Night: VFR.
Sunday: VFR.
Sunday Night: VFR.
Monday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.
&&
$$
WHAT HAS CHANGED...Hastings
DISCUSSION...Storm/Hastings
AVIATION...Storm
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