141
FXUS61 KBTV 270040
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
740 PM EST Wed Nov 26 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A strong cold front moves through this evening, bringing a line
of showers. Lake effect snow begins over northern New York
after its passage and continues through Thursday night. It
transitions to upslope snow for the Greens and Adirondacks
Friday into Friday night. Mostly dry weather prevails Saturday
before the next storm system arrives on Sunday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 138 PM EST Wednesday...A cold front is rapidly
approaching from the west, and it will pass through the region
this evening and tonight. Before its passage, there will be
showers and periods of mist and drizzle as a warm front will be
to our south. A brief break into the warm sector is possible
this afternoon where a few periods of sun and quickly warming
temperatures are possible. Temperatures are expected to rise
into the fifties in most places.

Behind the cold front, temperatures will quickly fall,
initiating a lake effect snow event. Southwesterly winds
Thursday and Thursday night will send it into St. Lawrence and
Franklin counties. A trough will swing through late Thursday
night and shift winds to northwesterly, and quickly send the
band south of the region. In the band, heavy snowfall rates of
1+ inches per hour are expected in localized areas, but its
residence time over a specific area should be limited. Marginal
surface temperatures in the St. Lawrence Valley will also limit
accumulations. Overall, for the lake effect portion, 3-7 inches
are expected in the most favored areas of St. Lawrence Counties,
and 2-4 in the adjacent areas.

Behind the cold front, strong winds will develop as a low-level
jet moves through and cold air advection helps keep conditions
mixed. Gusts between 20 to 35 mph are expected in most areas,
with locally higher gusts possible in the St. Lawrence Valley
due to channeling and the far northern Adirondacks due to
downsloping. As the front moves through this evening, a brief
period of downsloping is looking likely across the eastern
Adirondacks, where brief gusts between 30- 40 mph are possible.
Winds will be quite strong on Lake Champlain with gusts above 40
mph possible.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT/...
As of 138 PM EST Wednesday...As the flow becomes northwest
heading into Friday, moist cyclonic flow continues, setting off
an upslope event. These snow showers will continue into Friday
night, where 2-6 inches are expected in the typical areas. The
highest totals will be in the areas around Jay Peak. Unblocked
flow will favor the most snow falling around and immediately
downwind of the summits. The strong wind gusts will continue
into Friday night, where gusts between 20-35 mph are again
possible. The combination of the strong winds and dropping
temperatures will cause wind chills to drop into the single
digits and teens Friday night, but the winds and cloud cover
will keep temperatures in the upper teens and twenties for most
places.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 138 PM EST Wednesday...The weekend looks to start off
generally dry with winds weakening Saturday afternoon as our
flow briefly becomes zonal and from the west which is not
conducive for channeling, hence the weakening winds. Some
clearing will be possible in the deeper valleys Saturday
afternoon, but clouds will increase Saturday night with the
approach of the next system on Sunday. A surface low associated
with a longwave will swing southwest to northeast beginning
Sunday morning. Winds will become southerly with modest waa.
Temperatures will rise to the mid 30s to low 40s on Sunday. The
surface low will deepen to our north with wind gusts increasing
in south to north oriented valleys with channeling. There is a
60-70% chance of gusts over 25 mph in the Champlain and St.
Lawrence Valley during the day Sunday. Precipitation will be
hard to come by with this system as it will be racing to the
northeast in association with a strong jet streak. This may
likely become a high PoP/low QPF event. Temperatures will be
marginal with mountains barely hanging onto freezing values,
with the valleys warming above freezing. Consequently, ptypes
will likely be some wet flakes in the mountains, with mainly
rain in the valleys with just a few wet flakes possible. Showers
will be the most widespread Sunday night, across portions of
southern Vermont and near the Connecticut River Valley where the
best frontogenesis and moisture advection will be. The best
chances of any snow accumulations will be in the Adirondacks
early Monday morning as temperatures rapidly fall behind the
system switching rain to snow.

Snow showers will be transition to more upslope based into
Monday morning across the western faces of the Adirondacks.
Showers across the area will taper off Monday afternoon with
brief high pressure. Under the high Monday night, temperatures
will fall into the low to mid teens, with perhaps single digits
in the cold hollows of the Adirondacks and Northeast Kingdom.
Temperatures will remain cold with additional precipitation
chances into mid week next week.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Through 00Z Friday...A strong cold front will push east across
our area with brief 1-2 hour IFR ceilings and visibilities
possible, based on observations upstream. The cold front will
move east to BTV by 02Z, and EFK by 05Z. Winds out of the south,
and then southwest behind the cold front increasing rapidly
with and behind the front. Winds will gust at MSS/SLK/PBG up to
30 to 35 kts by 12Z. Winds will generally be 25-30 at the VT
terminals. Lastly, ceilings will rapidly improve towards VFR
with the cold frontal passage. Terminals in VT will generally
see VFR Thursday with MVFR ceilings and snow returning to
MSS/SLK beginning early Thursday morning as a lake effect band
develops off Lake Ontario.

Outlook...

Thursday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance
SHSN.
Friday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR and IFR possible. Definite
SHSN.
Friday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHSN.
Saturday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. NO SIG WX.
Saturday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHSN.
Sunday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR and IFR possible. Definite
SHSN, Definite SHRA.
Sunday Night: Mainly MVFR, with local VFR possible. Chance SHRA,
Chance SHSN.
Monday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA, Slight
chance SHSN.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
NOAA Weather Radio station WXM-44, transmitting from Mt.
Ascutney, Vermont, on frequency 162.475 MHz is non-operational
at this time. NWS technicians have diagnosed the problem, but
repairs will likely not be able to occur for quite some time due
to circumstances beyond our control. Therefore, the time of
return to service is currently unknown. The following NOAA
Weather Radio transmitters may be able to provide service during
this outage: WWG 50 from Burke Mtn, VT at 162.425 MHz and WNG
546 from Hanover, NH at 162.525 MHz.

Equipment malfunctions at Colchester Reef will likely leave it
inoperable for an extended period of time. Use extra caution
when navigating the broad waters, and please contact us if you
observe winds significantly deviating from the forecast.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...Lake Effect Snow Warning from 1 AM Thursday to 7 PM EST Friday
     for NYZ029.
     Winter Weather Advisory from 10 AM Thursday to 7 PM EST Friday
     for NYZ030.
     Winter Weather Advisory from 1 AM Thursday to 7 PM EST Friday
     for NYZ087.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Myskowski
NEAR TERM...Myskowski
SHORT TERM...Myskowski
LONG TERM...Danzig
AVIATION...Danzig/Neiles
EQUIPMENT...Team BTV