164
FXUS61 KBTV 041916
AFDBTV
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
216 PM EST Wed Mar 4 2026
.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
As of 215 PM EST Wednesday...
A Winter Weather Advisory has been issued for portions of northern
New York and the southern Champlain Valley of Vermont.
&&
.KEY MESSAGES...
As of 215 PM EST Wednesday...
1. A wintry mix is expected Thursday night into Friday with
impacts likely to the morning commute.
2. Weekend warmup with showers likely Saturday.
3. The potential for ice jams and hydrological related issues
will need to be monitored early next week due to much above normal
temperatures and significant snow melt.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
As of 215 PM EST Wednesday...
KEY MESSAGE 1: Confidence has increased enough to issue a Winter
Weather Advisory for a period freezing rain and snow/sleet mix
across much of northern New York and portions of the southern
Champlain Valley of Vermont Thursday night into Friday.
Synoptically, not much changed with todays NWP guidance which
features a potent shortwave traversing the central CONUS along a
stalled frontal boundary tonight into Wednesday, tracking just south
of the forecast area Thursday night into Friday morning. To the
north, high pressure builds southward from Canada with low-level
cold air undercutting warmer air aloft pushing northward from the
south. This scenario creates a mess of weather types with much of
Vermont outside of the southern Champlain Valley seeing a mix of
snow and sleet, while elsewhere freezing rain is likely the more
dominant ptype Thursday night before precipitation tapers off Friday
morning and surface temps slowly rise above freezing. Snow and sleet
accumulations will be minimal in the dusting to 1 inch range, but
ice accumulations could be up to 2 tenths of an inch for some areas.
This ice accretion shoudln`t be enough to create any widespread
power issues, but the Friday morning commute could be treacherous
for some locales.
KEY MESSAGE 2: Low pressure tracking through the Great Lakes combined
with high pressure off the Atlantic seaboard will produce strong
southwesterly warm air and moisture advection across the Northeast
on Saturday with temperatures pushing well above seasonal normals.
Southeasterly flow east of the Green Mountains will limit heating a
bit with upper 40s to around 50 expected, while westward widespread
50s to potential low 60s are likely. Much of the day looks to be dry
until the late afternoon and evening when a cold front will bring a
round of rain showers and potentially a few rumbles of thunder to
the region through Saturday night.
KEY MESSAGE 3:
The forecast for next week continues to indicate the potential for
well above normal temperatures from early to mid next week. A summer
like Bermuda high pressure ridge will remain anchored to the
southeast coast, extending north towards the International Border.
South/southwest flow will result in temperatures 20-30 degrees above
normal for early March, with 850 and 500mb temperatures in the 97-
99th percentiles based on the NAEFS. Highs will push the upper 50s,
with perhaps some localized low 60s across the southern St. Lawrence
Valley, southern Vermont, and eastern downslope regions of the
Adirondacks and Greens.
There will be several weak boundaries that will travel along the St.
Lawrence Valley and International Border, attempting to suppress the
warm temperatures at times, with the best organized boundary looking
to move through mid week. Better chances for shower activity next
week will be across northern New York on the western periphery of
the thermal ridge. Ensemble PWATs both in the Euro and GEFS are
denote a likely probability exceeding 0.5", with a good amount of
members up to 0.75-1". Overall, current moisture totals doesn`t look
overly concerning, however, there are some signals of some more
convective type showers by mid week, which could become concerning
in the coming days. There is still some uncertainty with how
organized these boundaries will be and how much associated QPF falls
with any shower activity.
Regardless of the above uncertainty, warm temperatures and dewpoints
above freezing will lead to widespread snow melt across the area.
The prolonged warm spell will surge 72hr Mon-Wed thawing degree
hours to 650-900, with some localized areas pushing 1000 in the
southern St. Lawrence Valley, southern Vermont, and Champlain
Valley. These values suggest enough melting for widespread ice break
up, which could lead to or increase the risk of ice jam related
flooding. Current NAEFS and GEFS snow melt liquid equivalent loss
ranges from 2-4". Combined with the ensemble QPF possibilities,
total liquid additions to rivers varies from 2.5-5" which would
support at least Action to Minor river flood potential. GEFS and
NAEFS still indicate many rivers will experience sharp rises with a
60-80% probability of the Mad River, Ausable River, Otter Creek, and
possible the Winooski River near Essex, reaching at least Action
Stage. There is slightly more confidence that the Ausable, Otter
Creek, and Mad could reach at least Minor Flood Stage with over a
75% probability in the NAEFS and GEFS. Typically to reach Moderate
or Major flood stage with ice jams, a significant rain event with
convective elements is needed, which appears unlikely at this point.
Given the uncertainty with the increasing hydrological concerns next
week, please pay close attention to the forecast as we move closer
to early to mid next week.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Through 18Z Thursday...VFR conditions are expected to continue
through the next 6-12 hours. Brief high pressure will break down
into this evening as a moisture starved cold front shifts south from
Canada overnight. The region will become sandwiched between a
stationary boundary to the south and the approaching cold front to
the north which will help winds trend towards calm. This convergence
will also lead to moisture becoming trapped under an inversion with
warmer air aloft and the colder Canadian air sinking under. This
trapped moisture could lead to the development of some low surface
fog, particularly in the wider valleys impacting MSS/BTV/PBG,
especially if skies become clear. The best chances for fog will be
closer towards sunrise as the cold front enters the region.
Associated with the cold front, ceilings will trend towards MVFR
1000-2000ft agl north of RUT, with perhaps some intermittent MVFR at
RUT between 2000-3000ft agl which will increase from the south. The
cold front will wash out as it reaches central Vermont, but winds
will shift to the north by tomorrow morning becoming breezy with
winds around 10 knots. Any fog should mix out by 14-15Z, with
continued MVFR ceilings towards the end of the TAF period.
Outlook...
Thursday Night: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. Chance
FZRA, Chance SN, Chance PL.
Friday: Mainly MVFR, with local VFR possible. Chance SN, Slight
chance FZRA.
Friday Night: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Windy with
gusts to 30 kt. Chance RA.
Saturday: Mainly MVFR, with areas IFR possible. Windy with gusts
to 30 kt. Chance RA.
Saturday Night: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. Chance RA.
Sunday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. NO SIG WX.
Sunday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Monday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
&&
.EQUIPMENT...
The KBTV ASOS has suffered a communications failure. The issue
has been diagnosed, but there is currently no estimated time of
return to service. The affected communications line is not
serviced by the NWS. Terminal Aerodrome Forecasts will continue,
but regular observations may not be available.
NOAA Weather Radio station WXM-44, transmitting from Mt.
Ascutney, Vermont, on frequency 162.475 MHz is non- operational
at this time. NWS technicians have diagnosed the problem, but
repairs will likely not be able to occur for quite some time due
to circumstances beyond our control. Therefore, the time of
return to service is currently unknown. The following NOAA
Weather Radio transmitters may be able to provide service during
this outage: WWG 50 from Burke Mtn, VT at 162.425 MHz and WNG
546 from Hanover, NH at 162.525 MHz.
The Colchester Reef meteorological station is out of service.
This site is not serviced by the NWS and there isn`t an
estimated return to service at present. Please contact us if you
observe winds significantly deviating from the recreational
forecast.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...Winter Weather Advisory from 7 PM Thursday to 1 PM EST Friday
for VTZ009-011-018-019.
NY...Winter Weather Advisory from 7 PM Thursday to 1 PM EST Friday
for NYZ029-030-034-087.
&&
$$
WHAT HAS CHANGED...Lahiff
DISCUSSION...Lahiff/Danzig
AVIATION...Danzig
EQUIPMENT...NWS BTV
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