106
FXUS61 KBTV 242353
AFDBTV
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
753 PM EDT Wed Jun 24 2026
.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
As of 228 PM EDT Wednesday...
No significant changes.
&&
.KEY MESSAGES...
As of 228 PM EDT Wednesday...
1. Showers return for late tomorrow into Friday
2. While heat and humidity will gradually build early next
week, significant heat is not expected during this period. Isolated
or scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible each day into
mid week, especially on Sunday and Tuesday.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
As of 228 PM EDT Wednesday...
KEY MESSAGE 1: After a mostly dry mid-week, another area of low
pressure will track into the region from the west Thursday night. It
looks to be weaker than the event earlier in the week, with the
pressure only dropping to around 1010 MB as it passes through. A
weak warm front will pass through late Thursday into Thursday night,
bringing the first round of showers. There will be enough synoptic
ascent to try to cause a brief round of stratiform precip. Behind
it, it should end with a few areas of weak elevated convection. A
break looks to occur Friday morning after the warm front passes
east, especially over southern areas, before a broken line of
showers tries to form in the afternoon. Through Friday,
GEFS/EPS/CMCE combined ensemble probabilities of receiving more than
0.5 inches are between 50-75 percent and probabilities of receiving
more than an inch are less than 25 percent. On Friday afternoon,
around 500-1000 J of CAPE looks to form and 0-6 KM shear looks to be
around 30-35 KT, so a few strong storms will be possible. However,
increasing dry air aloft and relatively weak synoptic dynamics will
help minimize the threat. Adequate storm movement and the break
between the warm front and the convection will minimize the flood
threat.
KEY MESSAGE 2: Temperatures will steadily warm towards mid next week,
though not too particularly hot as we head into July. Ensemble
height fields denote moderate surface ridging centered in the Ohio
Valley building in by Monday. The best chance for a fully dry day
next week looks to be Monday as the ridge axis extends north along
the St. Lawrence Valley allowing for the best chance for sunny
skies. Temperatures will peak towards the upper 80s to near 90 by
Tuesday/Wednesday as the ridge axis peaks near the region. Most
guidance continues to show that reaching 90 may be difficult as
ensembles depict some troughing from the east edging towards Vermont
and northern New York. Some ridge rollers along the periphery of the
Ohio Valley ridge may lead to some increased cloud cover and
afternoon precipitation chances. Dewpoints will also increase
towards the mid to upper 60s for Tuesday/Wednesday afternoon. While
temperature and dewpoints will be increasing towards mid next week,
the maximum extent of the any heat risk remain uncertain. There will
be slight to moderate risk likely at least, though any more
significant heat risk leans more unlikely given the presence of
troughing east of the region across Maine and the Canadian
Maritimes. As we near the 4th of July, changes to the position of
the ridge axis will play a large role in our weather for any holiday
festivities.
With the increasing temperatures and moisture, instability will
subsequently increase by mid week with daily shower and thunderstorm
chances each day. The latest model blend probabilities show around
10-20% chance for thunder Sunday and Monday, with slightly higher
amounts to 20-30% Tuesday and Wednesday. While there is still a
potential for some stronger storms Tuesday with CAPE around
1000J/kg, recent model trends have backed off slightly on the amount
of instability present. Owing likely to increased CIN from a
combination of convective debris and uncertainty in the placement of
the eastern troughing. There is still quite a spread for any
convective potential into next week though some chances for some
diurnally driven shower chances look increasingly possible with the
increased temperatures and dewpoints. As of right now, statistical
guidance from the NAEFS and EFI do not show any noteworthy unusual
weather from a temperature or precipitation standpoint.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Through 00Z Friday...Conditions are starting off very quiet
under high pressure...and VFR conditions are expected to
continue through the 24 hour TAF period. A scattered to broken
cloud deck is moving in from the west, with ceiling heights
generally between 5-10kft agl. These ceilings will remain
fairly persistent through tomorrow morning, though clouds may
briefly scattered out between 06Z and 15Z. After 18Z, scattered showers
will move in from west to east as a low pressure system
approaches. Visibilities should remain predominantly VFR within
showers, but clouds will thicken and lower towards lower VFR
levels after 18Z.
Isolated valley fog tonight cannot be completely ruled out,
however chances are very low due to overnight cloud cover along
with some winds just off the surface. Have left mention of fog
out of all TAFs.
Outlook...
Thursday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance
SHRA, Slight chance TSRA.
Friday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance SHRA, Slight
chance TSRA.
Friday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. NO SIG WX.
Saturday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA.
Saturday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Sunday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Sunday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Monday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.
&&
$$
WHAT HAS CHANGED...Myskowski
DISCUSSION...Myskowski/Danzig
AVIATION...Duell
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