208
FXUS61 KBTV 121112
AFDBTV
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
712 AM EDT Sun Oct 12 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
A coastal low over the Mid-Atlantic will bring increasing clouds to
the region today, with precipitation chances arriving later tonight.
Breezy easterly winds are expected across southern Vermont today,
with some localized downslope wind gusts up to 35 mph possible
tonight into Monday over eastern Rutland County. Cool and mostly dry
conditions will continue beyond Tuesday under cyclonic flow through
the remainder of the week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 533 AM EDT Sunday...Just a quick update to the forecast
this morning to account for the fog development in some of the
favored locations this morning. The fog should dissipate later
this morning, around 8AM or so, but any motorists on the road
should use caution and be prepared for reduced visibilities.
The first half of today will be relatively quiet as the region
remains in between a departing area of high pressure and an
approaching coastal low, which will bring increasing clouds
throughout the day and be the main weather feature of note as we
head into the beginning of next week. The tightening gradient
across the region will allow for some breezy winds, particularly
across southern Vermont where wind gusts of 20 to 30 mph will
be the most likely. Although relative humidity values will be
increasing, with minimum RH values around 40% to 50%, the gusty
winds in combination with the recent dry conditions could lead
to some fire weather concerns early this afternoon, with
additional information in the Fire Weather section below.
Temperatures today will generally be in the low to mid 60s, with
some locations in the St. Lawrence Valley nearing 70.
Precipitation will start approaching the region later this evening,
but the bulk of the precipitation will overspread the region during
the day Monday. There continues to be a rather sharp gradient of
precipitation across the region, with portions of southern Vermont
likely seeing an inch of rainfall, while northern Vermont and the
St. Lawrence Valley only receiving hardly anything. Breezy
conditions will continue heading into Monday, with some downsloping
off the southern Greens bringing gusts of 30 mph in Rutland County.
Mountain summits could see gusts up to 40 to 50 mph as they will be
more exposed and higher receiving the bulk of the low level jet
winds. Overnight lows will be on the milder side compared to the
last several nights given the increased cloud cover, with
temperatures generally in the 40s. The rainy and overcast conditions
will help keep temperatures cool during the day on Monday, with high
temperatures in the 50s, with some locations east of the Green
Mountains struggling to climb out of the 40s.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 239 AM EDT Sunday...Precipitation will begin to shift eastward
Monday night, with conditions trending drier for Tuesday, although a
few lingering showers cannot be ruled out. Overnight lows Monday
night will be on the milder side once again, generally in the 40s.
Seasonable temperatures are expected for Tuesday, with highs
climbing into the upper 50s and lower 60s with plenty of lingering
cloud cover.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 216 AM EDT Sunday...A highly amplified pattern is progged
acrs the CONUS for Tues night into next weekend with trof acrs
the Rockies, ridge over the central Plains, and mid/upper lvl
trof over the ne CONUS. The northerly flow aloft wl advect a
pocket of cooler temps acrs our cwa for mid week with brisk
winds expected. The orientation of the mid/upper lvl flow is
from central Canada and pw values drop below 0.25" so not
anticipating much qpf in the long term. Best potential for a few
light showers wl be associated with s/w energy and cold frnt on
Tues night into Weds, but moisture parameters are limited, so
mainly a dry cold frnt anticipated. A few mtn induced showers
are possible on Weds under moderately strong caa. Also, as a well
aligned northerly flow of progged 850mb air btwn -4C and -7C
moves acrs the warmer Lake Champlain waters, expect lake
enhanced clouds with a few sprinkles/light rain showers
possible. Given progged 850mb winds of 20 to 35 knots and good
mixing, a prolonged Lake Wind Advisory is likely for Weds thru
Thurs of this upcoming week. In addition, given the very dry air
aloft and potential for some mixing, we wl have to watch
winds/rh`s closely for potential fire wx concerns for mid to
late week. Difficult to determine rh`s at this stage, given the
cool airmass in place. Did utilize our in house mtn max T tool
to integrate cooler summit temps on Weds and Thurs associated
with progged 850mb temps btwn -4C and -7C, which support highs
mainly in the upper 20s to lower 30s summits to mid 40s to lower
50s warmer valleys. Temps start to modify on winds shift to the
south/southwest by late week into next weekend.
&&
.AVIATION /11Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Through 12Z Monday...As expected it was a very challenging
aviation night with many sites, including MSS/RUT/MPV and EFK
having at least a little IFR/VLIFR in fog/br, while BTV/SLK and
PBG stayed VFR. Moving forward thinking IFR conditions linger
another 1.0 to 1.5 hours at EFK and MPV, before better mixing
arrives and conditions quickly improve. Otherwise, VFR
conditions will prevail at all sites once the fog lifts thru 12z
Monday. Cigs could lower toward MVFR at MPV after 06z associated
with easterly upslope flow. Also, light rain wl arrive after 06z
at RUT, but given easterly wind component thinking VFR
conditions. Winds are east/southeast 5 to 15 knots with
localized gusts 18 to 24 knots at RUT at times thru 12z Monday.
Expect mostly northeast winds at SLK/MSS at 5 to 10 knots thru
the period.
Outlook...
Columbus Day: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA,
Likely RA.
Monday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance SHRA.
Tuesday: Mainly MVFR, with local VFR possible. Slight chance
SHRA.
Tuesday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight
chance SHRA.
Wednesday: MVFR. Slight chance SHRA.
Wednesday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHRA, Slight chance SHSN.
Thursday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Breezy easterly winds today, with gusts up to 30 mph possible,
will lead to elevated fire weather concerns across southern
Vermont today. Despite recent rain last week, dry conditions
have persisted in southern Vermont. Thus while relative humidity
values will only be 40-50%, fire weather concerns and fire
spread will be heightened with the forecasted near critical wind
gusts. Wetting rain from a coastal low will overspread the
southern portions of the area by this evening which will
mitigate the fire weather concerns heading into next week.
Breezy easterly winds will continue with the onset of rain, in
particular in the nearby western valleys of the southern Greens
from downsloping. Fire weather concerns will decrease with the
wetting rain tonight into Monday.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Kremer
NEAR TERM...Kremer
SHORT TERM...Kremer
LONG TERM...Taber
AVIATION...Taber
FIRE WEATHER...WFO BTV
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