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  Monday August 21, 2017

 

NWS Area Forecast Discussion


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000
FXUS61 KBTV 190836
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
436 AM EDT Sat Aug 19 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
An upper level trough of low pressure will move east from the Upper
Midwest and reach northern New England by tonight. Clouds and a few
showers are expected across the area today into this evening with
highs in the mid 70s to lower 80s. Drier air moves in on Sunday with
more sunshine expected and highs once again in the mid 70s to the
lower 80s. We are still looking at mostly sunny skies for
Monday...the day of the solar eclipse... with highs in the lower
to mid 80s. Another trough of low pressure approaches the region
on Tuesday and will increase the chances for showers and
thunderstorms.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 436 AM EDT Saturday...Southwest flow aloft exists over
the area this morning in advance of an upper level trough over
the Upper Midwest. Still quite a bit of low level moisture
around from precipitation yesterday with dew points in the 60s.
Enough cloud cover has remained over the area to preclude
widespread fog development. Any fog has been patchy and should
remain through about mid-morning. Not much in the way of any
forcing until upper trough moves in later today and thus only
expecting isolated showers. Most areas should remain dry with
highs in the mid 70s to lower 80s.

For tonight...still looking at isolated showers over the area
through about midnight...which is when the upper trough axis exits
to the east. Drier air moves in tonight and lows will generally be
in the mid 50s to lower 60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 436 AM EDT Saturday...High pressure builds into the
region on Sunday and moves south and east of the area on Monday.
Dry weather is expected during this period with increasing
amounts of sunshine each day. Highs on Sunday will be in the mid
70s to lower 80s with warmer temperatures on Monday as highs
will generally be in the lower to mid 80s. Solar eclipse viewing
should be good on Monday.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 350 PM EDT Friday...The next system has been delayed as
its awaiting a sharp, deep shortwave from central Canada to drop
across the Northern Plains Tuesday and then rotate across the
Great Lakes Tuesday night and lift NE into Ontario/Quebec on
Wednesday. The timing looking like more of a Tue ngt-Wed
feature. However...surface temps in the M-U80s with rich
dewpoints in the 60s and PWATs approaching 1.75 inches should
produce SFC based CAPES in the 1000-1500 range at least.
Also...despite the main dynamics and surface front still across
the Great Lakes, there are falling heights...diffluent flow
aloft and indications of some pre-frontal trof, thus chance for
t-storms will increase toward evening...esp NY and Intl border.
Wind dynamics don`t look too favorable and timing may just be
too late but still worth watching as they will increase Tue ngt.

Leading, strong shortwave and surface front move through Tue
ngt- midday Wed. By Wed aftn...front should be just east of CWA.
Trof axis still west of CWA Wed ngt-Thu with surface high still
west as well. Therefore, some unstable flow but PWATs fall to
around 0.50 inches on Thu. Current thinking is largely mountain
upslope shower/sprinkle. Highs on Thu L-M70s.

Thu ngt-Fri deep trof axis passes area with surface high
pressure building into region thus primarily dry and cooler
temperatures. Highs in U60s-LM70s. A cool start with lows in
the 40s/50s and some possible upper 30s. Friday ngt-Sat morning
should be as cool or cooler.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Through 06Z Sunday...Wide range of conditions expected across
the area with plenty of low level moisture around. Overall
looking at VFR to MVFR conditions...but there will be periods of
IFR to VLIFR ceilings of visibilities through 12z due to low
clouds and fog. After 12z enough mixing will take place to
remove the low clouds and fog with southwest winds in the 5 to
15 knot range. There may be a few showers that move across the
area after 22z...but should not have an impact on aviation.

Outlook...

Sunday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Sunday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Monday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Monday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday: VFR. Chance SHRA...Chance TSRA.
Tuesday Night: VFR. Likely SHRA...Chance TSRA.
Wednesday: VFR. Chance SHRA.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Evenson
NEAR TERM...Evenson
SHORT TERM...Evenson
LONG TERM...SLW
AVIATION...Evenson



 
 
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