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  Sunday October 22, 2017

 

NWS Area Forecast Discussion


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936
FXUS61 KBTV 210734
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
334 AM EDT Sat Oct 21 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will provide the North Country with above normal
temperatures and dry weather this weekend into early next week.
The next chance for widespread rainfall looks to be in the
Tuesday through Wednesday time period of next week as a slow
moving trough of low pressure impacts the region.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 334 AM EDT Saturday...Quiet weather to continue with
upper ridge and associated surface high over the area today
through Sunday. Other than some high clouds should see plenty of
sunshine. Low level warm air advection today through Sunday
should allow for a warming trend with highs today in the upper
60s to lower 70s and in the upper 60s to mid 70s on Sunday.
These temperatures will generally be about 15 degrees above
normal for this time of year. Have noticed dew points are
generally in the 30s over the area early this morning and feel
models are a bit overdone on the dew points this afternoon based
on dew points to our south and west. Thus with the drier air
mass in place feel high temperatures today will be a bit higher
than guidance values and have bumped highs up a couple of
degrees. The warmer temperatures and the lower dew points should
allow for afternoon relative humidities in the 30 percent range
with a few locations down in the upper 20 percent range. Winds
will be under 10 miles an hour...which is noticeably less than
the past couple of days. Fine fuels remain dry and the
combination of sunshine and lower relative humidities will
promote further drying of the fuels...but lack of wind should
more than likely keep fire danger in the moderate category today
and Sunday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 345 PM EDT Friday...Upper ridge with associated surface
high pressure system remains in place over the area Sunday and
Sunday night. Plenty of sunshine and dry weather is expected
with above normal temperatures...highs in the mid 60s to lower
70s on Sunday. Winds will generally be under 10 miles per hour.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 350 PM EDT Friday...As previous forecaster noted, more
amplified pattern will be in place beginning early next week.
This will bring a more active weather pattern with several
chances for precipitation. Best chances for rain will come
Tuesday into Wednesday when deep southerly flow develops over
the area. Eventually the trough axis shifts east Wednesday night
into Thursday and precipitation should taper off to showers and
decrease in areal coverage. Looking at a continuation of above
normal temperatures through the period despite the clouds and
precipitation.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Through 06Z Sunday...VFR conditions are expected through the
period with high pressure persisting over the entire Northeast.
Winds will generally be under 10 knots through the period.

Outlook...

Sunday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Sunday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Monday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Monday Night: VFR. Slight Chance SHRA.
Tuesday: VFR. Likely RA.
Tuesday Night: VFR/MVFR. Likely RA.
Wednesday: VFR. Slight Chance RA.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
KTYX radar at Fort Drum, New York will remain down for
scheduled maintenance until further notice as technicians
repaint the radome.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Evenson
NEAR TERM...Evenson
SHORT TERM...Neiles
LONG TERM...Neiles
AVIATION...Evenson
EQUIPMENT...BTV



 
 
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