790
FXUS61 KBTV 270241
AFDBTV
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
1041 PM EDT Fri Sep 26 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
A weak cold front will produce a few showers this evening as
temperatures cool back into the mid 40s to mid 50s with some patchy
fog toward morning. A warm and dry weekend is expected with highs in
the 70s and lows in the 50s with some morning fog possible. Much
above normal temperatures continue through early next week, before
cooler weather arrives by midweek.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 1039 PM EDT Friday...Chances of showers were continued
through 2AM along the northern Greens, their slopes, and along
the Adirondacks. Upslope flow is contributing to regeneration of
showers despite frontal passage.
Previous Discussion...The combination of bl moisture and weak
instability from sfc heating has helped in the development of
fair wx cumulus clouds with a few spot showers over the trrn.
Sfc analysis places weak cold frnt approaching the SLV attm with
ribbon of slightly better moisture and s/w energy. However,
GOES-19 mid lvl water imagery is very dry, so any shower
activity wl be limited in areal coverage this evening and mostly
confined to the trrn. Fog development is tricky again tonight
with advection of drier/cooler air behind boundary on northwest
flow of 5 to 10 knots. Thinking sheltered valleys wl see some
fog toward Sat AM with 15% probability of fog approaching BTV
runaway given bl flow from the north/northeast. Lows mid 40s to
mid 50s, except upper 50s near Lake Champlain. Saturday wl be
quiet with 1016mb high pres directly overhead and light trrn
driven winds.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 213 PM EDT Friday...Westerly confluent flow aloft prevails acrs
our cwa as sub tropical moisture and instability stays to our south
and northern stream energy is way to our north. Weak sfc high pres
prevails with dry wx continuing and much above normal temps
anticipated. Progged 925mb temps btwn 16-18c on Sunday, support
highs mid 70s to lower 80s with light trrn driven winds. Best
potential for fog looks to be Sunday night into Monday morning with
lighter winds and clear skies. Lows in the lower 40s to lower 50s,
except mid/upper 50s near Lake Champlain on Sunday night.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 213 PM EDT Friday...Ridging and high pressure will be the name
of the game for the entirety of this long-term forecast. Next week
looks to start on the mild side Monday with highs in the mid to
upper 70s, however, high pressure will begin to nudge southward by
Tuesday. This nudging of high pressure will keep any tropical
moisture to the south and out of the area. As the high will not
fully be overhead Tuesday, and since tropical moisture will continue
to be stuck in the Mid- Atlantic, we could be situated between the
two systems with a tight pressure gradient. Winds Tuesday afternoon
could be on the breezy side, particularly in the Champlain Valley
from channeled northerly flow. A dry cold front is expected to cross
the area by mid to late week which will drop temperatures into the
50s and 60s for highs.
Beyond the front, an even stronger area of high pressure will build
out of the Hudson Bay and drop south, moving overhead over central
New York. This high looks to be near 1030 mb which will drastically
cut down on our precipitation chances by late week into the weekend.
With the high overhead and clearing calm conditions, temperatures
overnight Tuesday, Wednesday, and Thursday could drop into the upper
20s to low 40s. This will mean frost could be possible for many
locations, in particular in the Adirondacks, Greens, and Northeast
Kingdom. A reminder that our frost products will end on Oct 1 in the
Adirondacks and Northeast Kingdom as this is the climatological end
to the growing season. Elsewhere our frost products will continue
beyond Oct. 1. The calm conditions under the high also will mean
good chances for abundant patchy overnight fog in the river valleys
mid to late week. All in all, there is high confidence in a quiet,
clear, and calm next week.
&&
.AVIATION /03Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Through 00Z Sunday...A few showers moving through 00-03Z could
briefly reduce CIGs to MVFR should a shower move over a
terminal. SLK stands the best chance to have an on terminal
shower while there is about a 30% chance at PBG and BTV. Some
fog could develop overnight as CIGs begin to clear. However,
breezes aloft could preclude fog. Best chances of IFR due to fog
will be at SLK/MPV and to a lesser extent MSS. High pressure
moving in Saturday will keep skies mostly clear, but can`t rule
our a few020-035 layer of shallow fair weather CU.
Outlook...
Saturday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Sunday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Sunday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Monday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Monday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Taber
NEAR TERM...Boyd/Taber
SHORT TERM...Taber
LONG TERM...Danzig
AVIATION...Boyd/Danzig
|
