FXUS61 KBTV 260005
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
805 PM EDT Sun Jun 25 2017
Unsettled weather will continue across the region throughout the
entire week with a daily threat of showers and a few thunderstorms.
Some of the rainfall may trend heavy, especially later in the week
as a more humid airmass moves into the area. Temperatures will
remain close to seasonal early summer norms through the period.
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
As of 805 PM EDT Sunday...Isolated thunderstorms embedded
within scattered showers continues to affect the region this
evening. Vigorous shortwave, easily seen on water vapor imagery,
continues to progress eastward into the St Lawrence Valley and
will continue to produce showers and possible rumble of thunder
over the North Country before weakening and exiting east after
More active weather still on tap for Monday as yet another
strong shortwave drops into the central Great Lakes area. Low
level surface trough boundary connecting today`s shortwave (then
across the Canadian Maritimes) to the Great Lakes feature will
serve as focus for low level convergence and additional
showers/isolated thunderstorms by tomorrow afternoon. Best
coverage to occur during peak heating hours of noon to 6 pm or
so before covering slowly wanes into the evening and especially
overnight hours. Low to mid level lapse rates are poorer than
today and with cooler boundary layer temperatures per 925-850 mb
progs updraft strength in convective cores will not be as
robust. Thus no strong to severe storms are expected. Highs
tomorrow mainly from the mid 60s to lower 70s with lows Monday
night from 45 to 55.
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 400 PM EDT Sunday...Strong upper level trough will cross
the area on Tuesday. Lots of clouds will keep temperatures mild
on Tuesday, highs around five to ten degrees below normal.
Temperatures aloft are even cooler which results in a bit of
instability, so have mentioned showers as well as thunderstorms
in the afternoon and evening. Cold air aloft means low wet bulb
zero heights so won`t be surprised to see some small hail in any
deeper convection. Have chance for showers mentioned early
Tuesday evening across our Northeastern zones but chances will
lessen overnight with upper level and surface ridging building
into the area.
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 400 PM EDT Sunday...The extended portion of the forecast
looks wet and near normal for temperatures. It will not be
cloudy and rainy continuously, but weather pattern is active and
there will be several rounds of precipitation, tough to find a
dry day in the next week. Upper level flow is progressive and
fast with west to east flow. Shortwaves passing through upper
level flow will enhance chance for showers and thunderstorms.
Still tough to time these shortwaves, and have continued with
previous forecaster thinking of a model blend from day to day.
GFS and ECMWF continue to show a large upper level trough
developing to our west on Saturday, deep southerly flow develops
and brings some very moist air to the region. Temperatures will
start out slightly below seasonal normals then trend back
towards seasonal normals towards the end of the week.
.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Through 00Z Tuesday...Gradually diminishing coverage of showers
and thunderstorms this evening will leave mostly VFR conditions
for the first half of the night. Expect vigorous shortwave to
exit east of Vermont between 06Z-09Z early Monday morning. This
will bring an end to showers/storms. BUFKIT model data showing
20kts jet just off the deck, which should keep the boundary
layer mixed and inhibit fog development at KBTV, KPBG, KRUT.
Have included tempo for MVFR/IFR conditions at KMPV and MVFR
conditions at KMSS and KSLK. Expect more showers at KMSS
overnight to possibly bring a brief period of MVFR conditions.
At KSLK and KMPV, after 07Z winds may abate at the surface
allowing for brief periods of MVFR/IFR conditions.
After sunrise Monday morning, winds will pick up out of the
west to northwest at 6-12kts. Lake breeze at KPBG expected to
prevail through most of the day. More showers and thunderstorms
expected to develop during the afternoon on Monday.
Monday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA...Slight Chance TSRA.
Tuesday: VFR. Chance SHRA...Slight Chance TSRA.
Tuesday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA.
Wednesday: VFR. Chance SHRA...Slight Chance TSRA.
Wednesday Night: VFR. Slight Chance SHRA.
Thursday: VFR. Likely SHRA.
Thursday Night: MVFR. Likely SHRA...Slight Chance TSRA.
Friday: VFR/MVFR. Chance SHRA...Slight Chance TSRA.