381
FXUS61 KBTV 040652
AFDBTV
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
252 AM EDT Sat Oct 4 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will remain the dominant weather feature through this
weekend with temperatures climbing well above normal, with some
daily record high temperatures in jeopardy Sunday and Monday.
The next chances for precipitation look to arrive Tuesday into
Wednesday as a cold front passes through the region, with cool
and dry conditions returning for the later half of the week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 239 AM EDT Saturday...Temperatures climb well above
seasonal averages today with highs generally in the 70s and high
building across the Northeast. There is still a little gradient,
so some light breezes can be expected this morning on Lake
Champlain and along higher terrain. The ridge crests tonight
with flow aloft turning more southwesterly by Sunday. 925mb
temperatures climb to 21C and will support even warmer
high temperatures generally ranging in the upper 70s to
low/mid 80s. Daily temperatures records for October 5th will be
in jeopardy under this pattern. Dew point temperatures were
lowered well below most model guidance over the weekend to
offset model biases of being too moist in drought and
anomalously high temperatures. RH will likely dip into the
30-40% range exacerbating ongoing drought.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 239 AM EDT Saturday...Temperatures continue well above
seasonal averages Sunday night into Monday under a warm air
advection pattern. While 925mb temperatures begin to decrease,
morning temperatures will start warmer than Sunday allowing for
another chance at daily high temperature records; highs favored
in the upper 70s to low/mid 80s. Winds were increased over
blended guidance values by injecting some mesoscale guidance to
capture increasing flow aloft mixing to the surface. Southerly
breezes of 10 to 15 mph are probable with some gusts to around
20 mph, especially in the Champlain and St Lawrence Valleys.
This could lead to some marginal fire weather concerns if dew
points follow recent trends of remaining lower than usual.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 138 PM EDT Friday...Another quiet weather day is expected on
Monday. A pocket of slightly cooler temperatures aloft, and also
drier air will pivot around the western periphery of departing
surface high pressure. Temperatures on Monday will largely be a
repeat of Sunday, give or take a degree or two. Increasing wind
gusts 15 to 25 mph and low relative humidities around 30 to 40
percent could bear watching. Deep southwesterly flow will ensure
very warm temperatures for an October night with 50s to near 60,
warmest in the broad valleys as per usual.
On Tuesday afternoon, a well defined frontal boundary remains poised
to cross southeast. A long stretch of 110-120 kt winds at 250hPa
will be lift through the St. Lawrence River and the Gulf of St.
Lawrence, which means we will be favorably placed in the right
entrance region of that jet. Any acceleration of low to mid-level
flow fortunately happens once the system is just downstream. We
should anticipate some southwesterly gusts ahead of the front, but
it will likely be nothing outstanding. The combination of a well-
defined front, upper level divergence, and 100-250 J/kg of CAPE
should allow for modest rainfall of 0.25-0.75". Raw long range
ensemble probabilities of over 0.5" range between 20-50%. NBM
probabilities are more generous at 40-70%. There`s a small chance
for a bit of phasing as a vort currently positioned all the way in
Alaska gets sucked into the channeled flow over the region by next
Tuesday night into Wednesday. This scenario would result in a
resurgence of rain on Wednesday and give us a bit extra rain. Given
that it`s only getting into better sampled areas, we`ll give it some
time to figure out if this scenario is worth following.
&&
.AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Through 06Z Sunday...Mostly clear skies and light winds
currently at our TAF sites with VFR conditions. Expect this
general trend to prevail overnight with the exception of some
shallow/patchy fog at MPV between 10z and 12z Sat. Did note sfc
dwpt at MPV is 10 degrees higher than 24 hours ago, along with
slightly warmer sfc temps. Given this increase in moisture, feel
the potential for fog is better tonight, so have tempo IFR
conditions between 10z and 12z. Otherwise, still rather dry at
SLK and soundings suggest another low level jet of 10 to 15
knots between 200 and 600 feet AGL, so did not place IFR
conditions in TAF for SLK. Any IFR will improve to VFR by 12z
Saturday and prevail through the rest of the day with light and
variable winds.
Outlook...
Sunday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Sunday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Monday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Monday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA.
Tuesday Night: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Definite
SHRA.
Wednesday: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Chance SHRA.
&&
.CLIMATE...
Incoming heat this weekend is presently forecast to approach
daily record values. The most likely dates for records will be
Sunday October 5th and Monday October 6th. Below are some of the
daily records in jeopardy of being broken (current forecast
within 3 degrees of the record).
Record High Temperatures:
October 5:
KBTV: 83/2023
KMPV: 82/1951
KPBG: 80/2005
KMSS: 85/1991
KSLK: 83/2023
October 6:
KBTV: 82/1990
KMPV: 79/1990
KMSS: 81/2005
KSLK: 80/1946
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Boyd/Kremer
NEAR TERM...Boyd
SHORT TERM...Boyd
LONG TERM...Haynes
AVIATION...Taber/Verasamy
CLIMATE...BTV
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