FXUS61 KBTV 240826
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
426 AM EDT Sat Jun 24 2017
Showers will be moving east out of the area as the morning
wears on today. Sunshine is also expected to develop as well.
Highs will be a few degrees above normal today then return to
seasonal normals on Sunday as clouds increasing along with the
chance for showers. Unsettled weather is expected for much of
next week with chances for showers just about everyday.
Temperatures will be slightly below normal through midweek then
slightly above normal for the end of the week.
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 425 AM EDT Saturday...Transition day today with "cold"
front moving west to east through the forecast area and lower
humidity air advecting in from the northwest. The line of
showers we`ve been watching all night has moved east of
Champlain valley ahead of the front, and will continue on
eastward during pre- dawn hours and exit Vermont. Front has
moved out of St. Lawrence Valley into the northern Adirondacks
with surface winds turning westerly in St. Lawrence and Franklin
counties NY and dewpoints starting to fall into the 60s. Light
convection firing to the south in the central Adirondacks, while
88D radar picking up a fine line signature to the north.
Today through tonight a full latitude upper trough deepens
across the east central US with southwest flow over the
northeast. A shortwave trough moving out of the mean trough will
pass over the area this morning through mid day. Shortwave along
with forecast CAPE 500-700 j/kg near the Canadian border will
keep chance pops alive mainly in the north. Noticeably drier
air works in this afternoon and overnight, and along with a
shortwave ridge aloft will diminish rain chances overnight.
Front is cold in name only, with temperatures in the 70s to low
80s today. 850 mb temps support a few degrees warmer, however
clouds around should limit the potential. Cooler temperatures
tonight, with lows in the 50s.
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 357 AM EDT Saturday...Shortwave trough will be moving
into the area on Sunday...especially during the afternoon hours.
Thus looking at increasing clouds and increasing chances for
showers. Highs will generally be in the 70s. The shortwave
trough exits the area Sunday night and most of the precipitation
will exit the area as well. Another shortwave trough moves in
on Monday and as a result...plenty of clouds will persist and
chances for showers will increase once again during the
afternoon hours. Highs will be in the upper 60s to mid 70s.
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 357 AM EDT Saturday...Overall still looking at an
unsettled period. An upper level trough of low pressure will
exist over eastern Canada and the Northeast through midweek. A
series of shortwave troughs will move through the trough and
enhance the potential for showers right through midweek. Below
normal temperatures are expected during this period. The pattern
will change for Thursday and Friday as flow aloft becomes more
westerly. Temperatures will warm up with highs in the mid 70s to
lower 80s. With the upper flow remaining more westerly over our
area...the chances for showers and storms will exist.
.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Through 06Z Sunday...VFR/MVFR conditions will exist through 12z
as plenty of moisture remains over the area. Scattered to
numerous showers will move east across northeast New York and
Vermont during this time period as well. Due to the showers and
low level moisture...there will be periods of IFR conditions
through 12z...but these conditions will not be widespread and
should not last too long. Still enough wind at the surface to
limit conditions falling any lower than IFR. After 12z improving
conditions will take place as drier air moves in from the west.
The trend toward VFR conditions will take place between 12z and
16z with all areas becoming VFR from 16z through the remainder
of the period. Winds will generally be 10 knots or less through
the period. Watch for a wind shift south and southwest to west
and northwest between 13z and 16z.
Sunday: VFR. Likely SHRA...Slight Chance TSRA.
Sunday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA.
Monday: VFR. Chance SHRA...Slight Chance TSRA.
Monday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA.
Tuesday: VFR. Chance SHRA...Slight Chance TSRA.
Tuesday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA.
Wednesday: VFR. Chance SHRA.