FXUS61 KBTV 231954
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
354 PM EDT Wed May 23 2018
A weak cold front crossing the area may spark an isolated shower
and/or thunderstorm this afternoon, otherwise high pressure will
provide fair and seasonably warm temperatures tonight through
Friday. More uncertainty arrives by the upcoming weekend as an
increase in moisture and a cold front sinking southward from Canada
may lead to a period or two of showers, especially Saturday and
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
As of 242 PM EDT Wednesday...Well, as expected, a we`re on the
tail end of a weak cold front dropping southeastward from
southern Canada into northern New England. So far, we`re just
seeing some diurnal cumulus forming along the boundary, with
convection popping east of the region in central/northern Maine.
Based on trends, seems as if the trough is just east enough
that we shouldn`t see much more than an isolated shower across
northeast Vermont this afternoon and evening. If any can get
going, a few lightning strikes aren`t out of the question either
with ample instability around.
For tonight, any afternoon shower activity that does form will
quickly dissipate with the loss of insolational heating, with a
mainly clear and cool night on tap as high pressure builds into the
region. Lows should be seasonably cool in the 40s, with a few spot
30s possible across the Adirondacks and far northeast Vermont. High
pressure remains dominant for Thursday and Thursday night as well
with PoPs nil. Temps will be slightly cooler than normal in the
upper 60s to low 70s Thursday as we`re still on the western edge of
the departing trough, but increasing southerly flow Thursday night
will keep lows mild in the upper 40s to upper 50s.
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
As of 345 PM EDT Wednesday...A warm and windy day is expected
Friday with a chance of showers and thunderstorms across our
Northern zones Friday afternoon and into the evening. Southerly
flow will become westerly by mid day on Friday and temps will
warm rapidly. The westerly warm air advection will bring 925mb
temps of 18C to 21C over the region meaning low to mid 80s can
be expected. Expect gusts during the morning and afternoon hours
of between 25-30 mph. With the higher temps and decent mixing
there`s some potential for showers to develop in the afternoon
hours on Friday. Showalters turn negative across much of
Northern Vermont and Northern New York during the afternoon.
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 353 PM EDT Wednesday...Lots of uncertainty still with the
weekend forecast, though the period looks active with several
chances for rain showers. Models are still indicating a back
door cold front dropping south across our region later in the
day Saturday and bringing with it a chance for light rain
showers. This front will stall out to our South Saturday night
and into Sunday. There will be clouds across the region, and
continued chance for light rain showers during the day Sunday.
Models are leaning towards a solution where it`s wetter in
Northern New York than in Vermont and this is reflected in my
forecast with likely wording in NY and chance in VT. An upper
level trough will swing through the region on Monday into Monday
night bringing more chances for showers and possible thunder in
Northern New York. Temperatures will be near normal during the
weekend and heading into next week, generally low 70s for highs.
Ridge of surface high pressure will build back into the region
for Tue and Wed of next week.
.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Through 18Z Thursday...VFR conditions are expected through the
period. Diurnal cumulus developing over the region this
afternoon may produce a stray shower or isolated thunderstorm
across northern Vermont, but will dissipate to mainly clear
skies after sunset. Overnight, SKC to FEW250 is expected with
light winds, with more fair weather clouds developing across the
Thursday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Friday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
Friday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA.
Saturday: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Chance SHRA.
Saturday Night: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. Likely SHRA.
Sunday: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Chance SHRA.
Sunday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA.
Memorial Day: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA,
Slight chance TSRA.