346
FXUS61 KBTV 121751
AFDBTV
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
151 PM EDT Fri Sep 12 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
Dry and seasonal conditions will persist this afternoon before an
upper level disturbance brings increased cloud cover tomorrow and
the chance for light rain showers Saturday night into Sunday. No
significant precipitation is expected with any of these showers, so
drought conditions will continue. Prolonged dry weather prevails for
next week with temperatures warming above seasonal normals by mid-
week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
As of 150 PM EDT Friday...It`s been a pleasant afternoon across the
region this afternoon as surface high pressure continues to be the
dominant weather feature, bringing mostly clear skies and seasonable
temperatures. Skies will trend cloudier this evening as cloud cover
associated with an approaching shortwave approach the region, with
overnight lows dropping into the 40s to low 50s tonight. Some fog
will be possible tonight, particularly across the Connecticut River
Valley and portions of eastern Vermont where cloud cover will be
slower to arrive.
The weak shortwave will continue to approach the region Saturday,
with cloud cover through most of the day. Dry antecedent conditions
will limit any precipitation chances, especially during the day when
virga is more likely. The better chances for precipitation will be
Saturday night into Sunday morning, although any showers will be hit
or miss with negligible precipitation amounts expected given the
overall lack of available moisture and the dry conditions overall.
Some of the latest probabilistic guidance only shows a 25 percent
chance or less for any locations to receive 0.1 inches of rainfall
within a 24 hour period. Temperatures on Saturday look to be
seasonable, with highs generally in the 70s and overnight lows in
the upper 40s and 50s.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 150 PM EDT Friday...The shortwave will continue to exit the
region on Sunday, with seasonable conditions expected. Some guidance
supports a few lingering showers during the day Sunday, particularly
across the higher terrain of the Green Mountains and Adirondacks,
but otherwise most locations should remain dry as high pressure
begins nosing into the region. Temperatures will continue to be
seasonable warm to end the weekend, with highs climbing into the low
to mid 70s for most of the area with overnight lows dropping back
into the 40s and low 50s.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 150 PM EDT Friday...Main story will be worsening drought
conditions associated with high confidence in another string of
sunny days with a warming trend Monday through Thursday. There is
some uncertainty Thursday night into the weekend, however. Some
scenarios depict a cold front with substantial moisture approaching
the region towards Saturday; in contrast, most scenarios would
result in continued dry conditions or an upper level system/trough
with meager moisture eventually moving in from the northwest.
Probabilities of measurable rain per the wetter scenario is 40-90%
through Friday evening, while the overall probabilities are more
like 35-50%; substantial rain is unlikely as fewer than 20% of
ensemble members showing rainfall in excess of 0.1" anywhere in our
region. A 10-15% chance of showers is noted Thursday night in the
current forecast in northern portions of our region. These PoPs seem
to be tied to a multi-model cluster with the northern stream feature
swiping our region before exiting the east. If that occurs, there
could be enough of a low level boundary to produce some light
showers before winds turn northwesterly and we resume a dry weather
pattern.
Daily occurrences of fog are likely, with highest confidence in
widespread valley fog overnight Monday as high pressure builds in
and low temperatures will greatly fall below crossover temperatures.
Otherwise, no impactful weather is expected through the period. If
it was still summertime, we`d probably have some marginal heat
concerns in the Wednesday-Thursday timeframe. However, well above
normal temperatures in mid September are not overly hot, as highs
could approach daily record maximums in the middle 80s but are
unlikely to exceed them.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Through 18Z Saturday...VFR conditions with winds 5 knots or
less will continue through the period. Some cirrus is spilling
southward into the airspace this afternoon, but a thicker cloud
layer, remaining above 10 to 15,000 feet, should develop occur
overnight ahead of an upper level trough, spreading from
northwest to southeast, especially after 06Z. These clouds,
along with drier surface conditions compared to last night,
should limit fog development on an otherwise favorable night for
fog at SLK, MPV, and EFK. Have shown a shorter period of LIFR
at MPV in the 09Z to 12Z period and hint at possible fog at EFK
with 3SM BR, but this is a relatively low confidence forecast
and will need to be reassessed based on upstream cloud cover and
dewpoint depressions during the first part of the night.
Outlook...
Saturday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA.
Sunday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
Sunday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Monday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Monday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Kremer
NEAR TERM...Kremer
SHORT TERM...Kremer
LONG TERM...Kutikoff
AVIATION...Kutikoff
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