051
FXUS61 KBTV 141022
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
622 AM EDT Sat Sep 14 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
Gusty winds early Saturday morning with light showers possible
until midnight as an elongated front washes out over the North
Country. Seasonable temperatures and quiet weather will follow
on Sunday but another round of showers will be possible Sunday
night. High pressure will then settle into the region through
the first half of the upcoming week bringing warmer and drier
conditions to the region.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 617 AM EDT Saturday...Forecast is in good shape. Tweaked
hourly temperatures based on a blend of hi-res guidance and
utilized combination of the hourly National Blend of Models and
3km NAM to bring PoPs down across the region. We could still
see some scattered showers across the high peaks and across
eastern VT this afternoon as weak shortwave moves along the
decaying frontal boundary across our area. Still looking at
several 40 to 45 mph gusts taking place along Lake Champlain,
with the low- level jet finally lifting northward and decaying
around 15Z, so continued the SPS a bit longer.

Previous Discussion...
An elongated cold front is pushing east across St. Lawrence and
Franklin County, NY. A few embedded rumbles of thunder have
occurred, but think these will be fairly short-lived. Strong,
gusty winds have been verifying well this evening with several
sites along Lake Champlain reporting frequent 40-45 mph gusts.
With a strong low-level jet progressing across the region and no
real changes in 00Z guidance, still expecting strongest gusts
on the lake and across high peaks with an isolated 50 mph gust
not out of the question. This strengthening low-level jet will
cause downsloping to shadow the Champlain Valley from this
broken line of rain moves east over the next few hours.

For Saturday afternoon, elongated front washes out, with a few
scattered showers possible, mainly along the Green Mountains and
eastern VT. Winds gradually come down mid-morning to Saturday
evening, though still remaining breezy with 20-30 mph gusts out
there. Highs should top out in the 60s to near 70. Overnight
lows will be in the 50s for much of the region. Showers chances
exit overnight Saturday.

For Sunday, a weak shortwave pushes east during the afternoon, but
with mostly westerly to west-northwesterly flow, moisture
convergence and support from low-level warm advection will be
lacking. Thus, expect mostly an increase in clouds Sunday afternoon,
with perhaps an isolated shower across northern NY. Highs in the mid
60s to near 70.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 350 AM EDT Saturday...A weak ripple in northwest flow aloft is
expected Sunday night along with some moisture advected in from the
southwest. At the surface weak low pressure will track from the
Great Lakes southeast toward New York city on Monday. It`s just
enough to carry some clouds across the region with a low chance of
showers especially in the south and west portion of the area Sunday
night into Monday morning. Low temps ranging from the mid 40s to mid
50s.

The system exits quickly by Monday afternoon with cold advection
taking place leaving partly sunny skies with fair weather stratocu
developing. High temps in the 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 350 AM EDT Saturday...The long term period looks mainly fair
and dry with temperatures a little below normal initially Monday
night and Tue but warming above normal by Wed through Fri. Our
weather pattern will be dominated by an amplifying upper level ridge
aloft to our west with a mainly dry northwest to northerly flow over
our region. High pressure at the surface Tue slowly drifts over over
our region then off to our south and east by Thu and Fri allowing
temperatures to moderate. Looking for lows in upper 30s to upper 40s
both Tue and Wed morning with daytime highs in the 60s Tue to lower
70s Wed. By Thu and Fri, looking for highs in the 70s and lows mid
40s to mid 50s.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Through 06Z Sunday...TAF sites are currently VFR with 10-20
knot sustained winds and frequent 20-30 knot gusts out of the
south, which is expected to continue through about 22Z. Periods
of 25 knot sustained winds and a few 35 knot gusts possible. A
few pockets of low-level wind shear remain across NY with the
slower near surface winds for those terminals. Low- level wind
shear will decrease around 08Z- 10Z. Turbulent conditions will
remain along the Champlain Valley. Band of showers will move
east into Northern New York terminals between 07Z and 12Z.
Chances less likely across VT with VCSH at KBTV and KPBG. Still
some SHRA mentioned for KRUT and KMPV around 11Z- 15Z. Periods
of 2000-3000ft ceilings will be possible at times, mainly at
KSLK now through 20Z, and then at KMPV and KRUT generally from
12Z to 18Z.


Outlook...

Sunday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Sunday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
Monday: VFR. Chance SHRA.
Monday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday: VFR. NO SIG WX.

&&

.MARINE...
Southerly winds will continue to increase through this afternoon
into this evening as high pressure departs the region. A strong
pressure gradient will begin to develop this evening as a cold
front begins to approach the region which will create gusty
southerly winds ranging from 25 to 35 knots with stronger gusts
to 40 knots possible after midnight. Seas this afternoon will
build from 2-4 feet to 4-6 feet after midnight as the persistent
strong winds help to build the seas. The strongest winds and
highest seas will be observed from Kingsland Bay to St. Albans
Bay. These gusty winds and high seas will continue through
Saturday morning before beginning to slowly diminish and subside
as the gradient begins to relax during the afternoon hours.
Winds will likely not drop below 25 knots until Saturday
evening. Those with outdoor interests along Lake Champlain
tomorrow should take caution if planning to do any boating on
the lake.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Haynes
NEAR TERM...Haynes
SHORT TERM...Sisson
LONG TERM...Sisson
AVIATION...Haynes
MARINE...