583
FXUS61 KBTV 261814
AFDBTV
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
214 PM EDT Fri Sep 26 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
A weak cold front will produce a few showers this evening as
temperatures cool back into the mid 40s to mid 50s with some patchy
fog toward morning. A warm and dry weekend is expected with highs in
the 70s and lows in the 50s with some morning fog possible. Much
above normal temperatures continue through early next week, before
cooler weather arrives by midweek.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 213 PM EDT Friday...The combination of bl moisture and weak
instability from sfc heating has helped in the development of fair
wx cumulus clouds with a few spot showers over the trrn. Sfc
analysis places weak cold frnt approaching the SLV attm with ribbon
of slightly better moisture and s/w energy. However, GOES-19 mid lvl
water imagery is very dry, so any shower activity wl be limited in
areal coverage this evening and mostly confined to the trrn. Fog
development is tricky again tonight with advection of drier/cooler
air behind boundary on northwest flow of 5 to 10 knots. Thinking
sheltered valleys wl see some fog toward Sat AM with 15% probability
of fog approaching BTV runaway given bl flow from the
north/northeast. Lows mid 40s to mid 50s, except upper 50s near Lake
Champlain. Saturday wl be quiet with 1016mb high pres directly
overhead and light trrn driven winds.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 213 PM EDT Friday...Westerly confluent flow aloft prevails acrs
our cwa as sub tropical moisture and instability stays to our south
and northern stream energy is way to our north. Weak sfc high pres
prevails with dry wx continuing and much above normal temps
anticipated. Progged 925mb temps btwn 16-18c on Sunday, support
highs mid 70s to lower 80s with light trrn driven winds. Best
potential for fog looks to be Sunday night into Monday morning with
lighter winds and clear skies. Lows in the lower 40s to lower 50s,
except mid/upper 50s near Lake Champlain on Sunday night.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 213 PM EDT Friday...Ridging and high pressure will be the name
of the game for the entirety of this long-term forecast. Next week
looks to start on the mild side Monday with highs in the mid to
upper 70s, however, high pressure will begin to nudge southward by
Tuesday. This nudging of high pressure will keep any tropical
moisture to the south and out of the area. As the high will not
fully be overhead Tuesday, and since tropical moisture will continue
to be stuck in the Mid- Atlantic, we could be situated between the
two systems with a tight pressure gradient. Winds Tuesday afternoon
could be on the breezy side, particularly in the Champlain Valley
from channeled northerly flow. A dry cold front is expected to cross
the area by mid to late week which will drop temperatures into the
50s and 60s for highs.
Beyond the front, an even stronger area of high pressure will build
out of the Hudson Bay and drop south, moving overhead over central
New York. This high looks to be near 1030 mb which will drastically
cut down on our precipitation chances by late week into the weekend.
With the high overhead and clearing calm conditions, temperatures
overnight Tuesday, Wednesday, and Thursday could drop into the upper
20s to low 40s. This will mean frost could be possible for many
locations, in particular in the Adirondacks, Greens, and Northeast
Kingdom. A reminder that our frost products will end on Oct 1 in the
Adirondacks and Northeast Kingdom as this is the climatological end
to the growing season. Elsewhere our frost products will continue
beyond Oct. 1. The calm conditions under the high also will mean
good chances for abundant patchy overnight fog in the river valleys
mid to late week. All in all, there is high confidence in a quiet,
clear, and calm next week.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Through 18Z Saturday...A pre-frontal cloud band with MVFR ceilings
is currently draped across the St. Lawrence and northeastern
Adirondacks with the main front tracking east in eastern Ontario.
Scattered clouds with periodic MVFR ceilings will continue at
MSS/SLK/RUT/EFK through 00Z. A few light showers associated with the
cold front may pass through MSS/SLK/BTV between 20Z and 01Z,
however, confidence is low in any terminal impacts. As such only
used PROB30s. Beyond 02Z, westerly winds from the day will switch to
the northwest overnight and become calm as the cold front traverses
the area. Skies should clear by 06Z. Confidence in fog by 08Z is
medium with some low-level winds early in the overnight and some
uncertainty in low-cloud cover in northern New York acting as
possible limitations. Confidence is higher at MPV and EFK with
increasing confidence at MSS/SLK should they receive any showers
this evening. Northeasterly winds at BTV could perhaps lead to some
late fog development by 10Z. Any fog will dissipate by 13Z with
mainly clear and clear conditions tomorrow.
Outlook...
Saturday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Sunday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Sunday Night: VFR. Patchy BR.
Monday: VFR. Patchy BR.
Monday Night: VFR. Patchy BR.
Tuesday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Taber
NEAR TERM...Taber
SHORT TERM...Taber
LONG TERM...Danzig
AVIATION...Danzig
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