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  Tuesday May 23, 2017

 

NWS Area Forecast Discussion


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FXUS61 KBTV 200842
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
442 AM EDT Sat May 20 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will keep most of the weekend dry with below
normal temperatures today and tonight. Precipitation will return
to the North Country late Sunday afternoon and evening as high
pressure slides east off the New England coast and a low
pressure system approaches from the west. The chance for rain
showers will continue Monday and Monday evening. Tuesday will
see a brief return of surface high pressure.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
As of 442 AM EDT Saturday...Temperatures generally in the 40s
this morning with northerly winds of 5-10kts will see plentiful
sunshine under building ridge of high pressure today. Overall a
quiet weather day with max temperatures in the upper 50s to mid
60s, which is slightly below normal.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 442 AM EDT Saturday...As ridge crests over the region
tonight, winds will become light to calm under clear skies. This
will make for good radiational cooling conditions with 925mb
temperatures around 6C. Expect temperatures to fall into the 30s
to low 40s for Sunday morning. As the average date for min
temperatures around freezing has passed, the frost/freeze
program is open for the entire forecast area. Expect
temperatures to fall below 36 degrees to allow for possible
frost development in the Northeast Kingdom of VT and the
Adirondacks of northern NY, especially for areas above 1kft
elevation. Have issued a frost advisory for these areas starting
midnight tonight through mid-Sunday morning. Rest of the
forecast area will see slightly warmer temperatures, but
generally in the upper 30s to low 40s.

The rest of Sunday will see gradually increasing clouds and the
aforementioned ridge axis sliding east. This will put the North
Country in southwest flow with increasing temperatures. Under
mostly sunny skies for the bulk of Sunday and 925mb temperatures
warming to 11-14C, expect max temperatures in the mid 60s to
low 70s. Low pressure near the northern Great Lakes will bring a
frontal boundary and associated rain showers to the western
edge of the forecast area late Sunday into Sunday night. NAM3km
and ECMWF more progressive with onset of rain showers in the St
Lawrence Valley by 00Z Monday, but most other guidance holding
off til after 00Z-03Z Monday. Rain showers will move west to
east into Monday, becoming more showery during the afternoon.
Gusty SW winds look to accompany the front late Sunday into
early Monday before the 925mb jet of 30-40kts diminishes.

Temperatures will be mild in the southerly flow Sunday night
with mins in the 40s to low 50s. Clouds and rain showers will
lead to max temperatures on Monday in the 50s to low 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 442 AM EDT Saturday...Forecast area is under the
influence of a slow moving upper trough for much of the time
period, with model differences becoming apparent toward the end
of the week.

Cold front passes through the forecast area in 00-12z Tuesday
timeframe with winds shifting from south to west. Lingering
chances for showers through 06z Tuesday with frontal passage and
area in right rear quadrant of 300 mb jet. Moisture becomes
limited toward morning and any lingering showers will taper off.
Little change in temperatures and low level winds turn
southerly again late Tuesday with positively tilted upper trough
to the west and region in broad southwesterly flow at 500 mb.
Surface high pressure Tuesday and Tuesday night will keep the
region rain free.

Upper trough slowly moves east Wednesday and Thursday, with GFS
developing a closed low over Tennessee Wednesday night, while
ECMWF retains its low over the western Great Lakes with an open
trough into the Gulf states. Result is the ECMWF lifts a
shortwave trough northeast ahead of the mean trough and spins up
a surface low that tracks north along the Appalachians, while
the GFS holds back with the slower moving closed low over the
south. Thursday into Friday the GFS lifts its closed low
northeast, and at the same time the ECMWF shifts its Great Lakes
low east. As far as sensible weather is concerned both models
then break out precip over the forecast area Wednesday into
Thursday for totally different reasons, and we end up with high
chance/low likely category POPs Weds-Thurs, starting to taper
off on Friday. Right now CAPE looks limited, and kept precip
type limited to showers with no thunder.

Little airmass change through the extended period, with highs
in the upper 60s/low 70s Tuesday & Wednesday, cooling to the 60s
in rain later in the week. to around 70, and lows in the 40s
and 50s.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Through 06Z Sunday...VFR conditions persist with few-sct mid-
high level clouds clearing throughout the day Saturday as
surface high pressure builds into the region. A very small
chance for some overnight fog and accompanying MVFR or lower
conditions for KSLK as temperature dewpoint spread only 2
degrees as of 05Z. But winds just off the surface seem to be a
bit too strong (CXX VAD wind profile shows 35kts around 1kft) to
support it so have opted to keep it out for now. Winds will be
out of the northwest to northeast at 05-10 knots for the period.

Mostly clear skies continue Saturday night with winds remaining
light to calm. Another good radiation cooling night.

Outlook...

Sunday: VFR. Chance SHRA in the afternoon.
Sunday Night: VFR/MVFR. Likely SHRA.
Monday: VFR/MVFR. Likely SHRA.
Monday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA.
Tuesday: VFR. Slight Chance SHRA.
Tuesday Night: VFR. Slight Chance SHRA.
Wednesday: VFR. Chance SHRA.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...Frost Advisory from midnight tonight to 7 AM EDT Sunday for
     VTZ003-004-006>008-010.
NY...Frost Advisory from midnight tonight to 7 AM EDT Sunday for
     NYZ030-034.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KGM
NEAR TERM...KGM
SHORT TERM...KGM
LONG TERM...Hanson
AVIATION...KGM



 
 
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