064
FXUS61 KBTV 100608
AFDBTV
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
208 AM EDT Fri Oct 10 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
After a cool and frosty start this morning temperatures will warm
back into the upper to lower 60s by this afternoon under mostly
sunny skies. High pressure will continue into the upcoming weekend
with dry conditions and warmer temperatures on Saturday, before the
threat for rain increases late Sunday into Monday, along with
localized gusty winds across the southern Green Mountains.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 207 AM EDT Friday...Coolest morning of the fall season with
many areas below freezing this morning, except urban areas in the
CPV and near the warmer Lake Champlain waters. Sfc analysis places
1034mb high pres near SLK this morning with some localized fog,
which should quickly burn off given deep dry layer aloft per latest
water vapor trends. Temps warm back into the upper 50s to lower 60s
this aftn with mostly light and variable winds under 10 mph. Tonight
the center of high pres shifts to our east with modest southerly
flow developing. This results in waa and a wide range in temps
overnight. Deeper/protected valleys should decouple and given dry
airmass in place, wl fall back into the mid/upper 20s, while
midslopes and aligned south to north valleys wl experience temps in
the mid 30s to lower 40s. As a sharp and shallow inversion develops,
expect a wide spread in lows tonight with some very shallow fog
possible in climo favored areas. Additional frost headlines maybe
needed in central/eastern VT where program is still valid.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 207 AM EDT Friday...Mid/upper lvl pattern starts to become
rather messy and complex acrs the eastern CONUS, with small closed
and compact circulation diving south toward western NY/PA, while
ridge tries to retrograde back into northern New England. Meanwhile,
additional energy aloft and increasing baroclinic zone wl help to
enhance sfc low pres near Hatteras on Saturday. This area of low
pres wl deepen as it slowly moves northward toward our cwa on
Sunday. The combination of a 1030mb high pres anchored over northern
Maine and developing sub 1000mb low pres moving up the eastern
seaboard wl strengthen an easterly low level jet acrs
central/southern VT by Sunday. First on Saturday, soundings are very
dry, especially near 850mb, with progged dwpts btwn -5C and -15C,
but winds are very light so mixing of this drier air aloft to the
sfc should not be fully maximized. Still expecting dwpts to drop
into the 2C to 6C range, which wl drop min rh`s in the 35% to 45%
range, driest over northern NY into parts of the NEK of VT. The lack
of mixing and cool temps wl limit the min aftn rh drop. Highs on Sat
wl warm into the upper 50s to mid 60s under mostly sunny skies.
On Sunday strengthening 925mb to 850mb jet of 35 to 50 knots
develops over southern VT, as gradient btwn high pres to our north
and low pres to our south increases. Initially sounding profiles
show inversion near summit level with dry adiabatic mixing,
supporting localized gusts 25 to 35 mph in favorable downslope areas
of the southern Greens. However, as deeper moisture is advected into
our cwa late Sunday, the inversion is weakening and mixing profiles
become moist adiabatic, supporting less mixing but winds aloft are
stronger. So feel a few breaking mtn waves are possible to support
localized east/southeast gusts of 35 to 45 mph toward Sunday night
acrs the southern Greens. Have populated grids with combination of
CONSSHORT and GFS to support this thinking on Sunday aftn. Much
lighter winds are expected over northern sections and east of the
Greens, where llvl stability wl limit mixing. As wind profiles
develop, so does deeper moisture with humidity values increasing
into the moderate to high range late Sunday. Still feel initial
surge of moisture wl dissipate and fall mainly as virga on Sunday
aftn, given position of sfc high pres, but eventually saturation
occurs and light rain develops over southern/central VT. Any qpf
thru 00z Monday wl be a 0.10 of an inch or less. Temps with
cool/easterly flow developing range from the mid/upper 50s eastern
VT to mid/upper 60s SLV.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 156 AM EDT Friday...A coastal low approaching the Northeast
will be the main feature to watch as we head into the beginning of
next week. The main story for Sunday night into Monday will be the
increasing chances of precipitation. The latest guidance continues
to support the higher chances of precipitation compared to a few
cycles ago, however how much rainfall is still uncertain, with dry
air across the region at the onset limiting how much will
initially reach the ground. The latest NBM shows a 50 percent
chance of southern Vermont receiving 0.5 inches of rainfall,
with chances decreasing to 30 percent further north with even
lesser chances across the St. Lawrence Valley. There still
remains plenty of uncertainty with this system, so stay tuned.
Chances for showers look to remain through the first half of the
week as the region remains under cyclonic flow. Temperatures
will generally be seasonable for this time of year, trending a
bit cooler towards the middle of next week with highs in the 50s
and 60s and lows generally in the 30s.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Through 06Z Saturday...VFR conditions are expected throughout the
entire forecast period as high pressure remains over the region.
Some fog has developed across some lakes across northern New York,
and while conditions are dry enough that fog development is not
expected by any terminals, VCFG was mentioned at KSLK for the next
few hours. Winds will be light and variable and/or calm overnight
with clear skies. Winds will gradually increase from the south
throughout the day tomorrow, generally between 5 to 10 knots.
Outlook...
Saturday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Saturday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Sunday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
Sunday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA.
Columbus Day: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. Chance SHRA.
Monday Night: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Chance SHRA.
Tuesday: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Chance SHRA.
&&
.CLIMATE...
Strong radiational cooling is expected Thursday night into
Friday morning. The follow will approach daily records.
Record Low Temperatures:
October 10:
KMPV: 24/1986 (Forecast value: 25)
KSLK: 18/1934 (Forecast value: 16)
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...Freeze Warning until 8 AM EDT this morning for VTZ002-005-006-
008>011-016>021.
Frost Advisory until 8 AM EDT this morning for VTZ001.
NY...Freeze Warning until 8 AM EDT this morning for NYZ026>028-035-
087.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Taber
NEAR TERM...Taber
SHORT TERM...Taber
LONG TERM...Kremer
AVIATION...Kremer
CLIMATE...BTV
|
