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  Sunday October 22, 2017

 

NWS Area Forecast Discussion


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303
FXUS61 KBTV 202324
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
724 PM EDT Fri Oct 20 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Strong high pressure building over the North Country today will
dominate the regions weather through the weekend with dry
conditions above normal temperatures expected. The next chance
for widespread rainfall comes Tuesday of next week, as a slow
moving low pressure system shifts into the northeast.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
As of 722 PM EDT Friday...No change made to current forecast as
1025mb high pres over western ny/pa is providing our cwa with
clear skies and light westerly winds. Given very dry airmass in
place...temps will drop quickly this evening with lows ranging
from near 30f slk/nek to l/m 40s warmer cpv/slv. all covered
well in current grids.

Late October weather doesn`t get much better than this, with
strong high pressure over most of the eastern CONUS dominating
the North Country`s through the weekend. Clear night skies and
abundant sunshine during the days can be expected, along with
seasonably mild temperatures. Tonight will be the coolest night
through the weekend as the high settles overhead and winds
decouple leading to temps ranging from the mid 30s to mid 40s,
but as southerly flow strengthens Saturday/Saturday night as the
high shifts offshore, lows will warm to mainly in the 40s for
tomorrow night. Highs Saturday follow suit warming into the
upper 60s to low 70s, a good 15 degrees above normal for late
October!

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 345 PM EDT Friday...Upper ridge with associated surface
high pressure system remains in place over the area Sunday and
Sunday night. Plenty of sunshine and dry weather is expected
with above normal temperatures...highs in the mid 60s to lower
70s on Sunday. Winds will generally be under 10 miles per hour.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 350 PM EDT Friday...As previous forecaster noted, more
amplified pattern will be in place beginning early next week.
This will bring a more active weather pattern with several
chances for precipitation. Best chances for rain will come
Tuesday into Wednesday when deep southerly flow develops over
the area. Eventually the trough axis shifts east Wednesday night
into Thursday and precipitation should taper off to showers and
decrease in areal coverage. Looking at a continuation of above
normal temperatures through the period despite the clouds and
precipitation.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Through 00Z Sunday...VFR conditions will prevail through the
next 24 hours as a dome of high pressure continues to dominate
the North Country`s weather. Winds will be under 10 knots and
variable through the period.

Outlook...

Saturday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Sunday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Sunday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Monday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Monday Night: VFR. Slight Chance SHRA.
Tuesday: VFR. Likely RA.
Tuesday Night: VFR/MVFR. Likely RA.
Wednesday: VFR. Slight Chance RA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Have coordinated with fire officials and reissued special
weather statement for today to bring awareness of breezy winds
and dry weather increasing fire weather concerns. Fire officials
advise against any open burning...including campfires on Friday
across northern NY and VT. Expect northwest winds today between
10 and 15 mph with localized gusts 20 to 25 mph. Minimum relative
humidity values will drop into the 25 to 35% range...with
lowest values and strongest winds across portions of central and
eastern VT on Friday afternoon. These conditions combined with
the recent dry weather has resulted in the fine fuels such as
leaves, grass, and small brush to become very dry. All these
factors combine to increase the potential for any fires that do
start to spread quickly and become difficult to contain.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
KTYX radar at Fort Drum, New York will remain down for
scheduled maintenance until further notice as technicians
repaint the radome.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Lahiff
NEAR TERM...Lahiff/Taber
SHORT TERM...Neiles
LONG TERM...Neiles
AVIATION...Lahiff/Verasamy
FIRE WEATHER...BTV
EQUIPMENT...BTV



 
 
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