968
FXUS61 KBTV 291118
AFDBTV
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
718 AM EDT Wed Oct 29 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
Prevailing high pressure over Quebec will bring one more day of
tranquil weather conditions today with seasonable high temperatures
in the low to mid 50s. Low pressure organizing across the Tennessee
Valley will bring widespread rainfall to the North Country beginning
on Thursday morning across northern New York, with rain gradually
spreading across Vermont later in the day. A rather long duration
rainfall is likely Thursday night and through much of Friday, with
breezy conditions at times. Most sections of the North Country will
see an inch to 1.5 inches of rainfall, with local amounts in excess
of 2 inches across northern New York.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 213 AM EDT Wednesday...Clear skies will bring some patchy
radiational fog early this morning. Otherwise, prevailing 1034mb
high pressure across Quebec will remain our controlling weather
feature for one more day. This anticyclone will provide light north
winds and highs generally in the low-mid 50s for this afternoon.
Some passing high clouds are likely - especially across eastern VT -
but mostly sunny conditions will prevail in most locations with PoPs
NIL.
Attention will then turn to developing low pressure across the
Tennessee Valley today as it begins to head northeastward across the
central Appalachians for tonight. Mean 500-300mb winds of
120-130kt digging into the wrn periphery of this system across
the central and southern Plains early this morning is quite
impressive and speaks to the upcoming strong dynamical forcing
that will be associated with this system. In any event, thinking
any rainfall will hold off until the daylight hours on
Thursday, but will see a gradual increase in high and mid-level
cloud cover from SW-NE across our region, especially during the
pre-dawn hours on Thursday. Enough radiational cooling during
the first half of the night will aid in overnight lows generally
in the upper 20s to lower 30s, except mid 30s near Lake
Champlain.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 213 AM EDT Wednesday...Aforementioned low pressure system
across the central Appalachians is expected to traverse newd into PA
and NY during the day on Thursday, before a secondary low deepens
rapidly Thursday night into Friday closer to the New England coast.
Impressive sely 925-800mb flow developing in advance of the low
brings in a good feed of Atlantic moisture, with precipitable water
values 1 SD above normal across our region at 00Z Friday. NWP
consensus is for stratiform precipitation to gradually develop
across nrn NY 15-18Z Thursday, and then overspread VT during
Thursday afternoon. Best overall synoptic forcing takes place
Thursday night as secondary low develops. PoPs near 100% for
Thursday night areawide and should see 0.5-1.0" in most locations
for the 12-hr period ending at 12Z Friday. Precipitation gradually
becomes more showery during the day Friday, but with a developing
moist WNW wraparound as the system deepens into the low 980mb range
across nrn ME, thinking scattered to numerous rain showers remain
likely through the latter portions of the day, with generally raw
conditions. Maintained 80-100% PoPs across nrn sections on Friday,
except lower in the CT River valley with a downslope NW flow regime.
All told for the period Thursday through Friday, looking for
significant rainfall of 1-1.5", and locally over 2" in the St.
Lawrence Valley based on current indications. Main stem rivers may
rise a few feet from current base levels, but no flooding is
anticipated; this rainfall is much needed and will make up for
significant rainfall deficits over the past 2-3 months and current
drought conditions.
Highs Thursday and Friday will generally be in the low-mid 50s,
except upper 40s in the nrn Adirondacks. Should see falling
temperatures later in the day Friday across the Adirondacks, with
some wet snow mixing in above 3000ft after 20Z or so.
One last issue is potential for downslope winds on the wrn slopes of
the Green Mtns Thursday evening and Thursday night. The 00Z NAM/NAM3
is the most bullish showing a 60-70kt sely 850mb low-level jet
traversing northward across the Green Mountains between 00-06Z
Friday. The 00Z GFS is closer to 40-50kts, along with most of the
other short-term guidance. At this point, appears sfc winds Thursday
night will remain below wind advisory criteria across the western
slopes of the Green Mountains, but this potential will need to be
monitored. Trended toward NBM 90th percentile winds and wind gusts
to yield SE winds 20-30 mph and wind gusts 30-40 mph from Rutland
northward along the immediate western slopes, especially during the
first half of Thursday night. Generally breezy conditions will occur
Friday as surface low departs...becoming west at 10-20 mph with
gusts to 30 mph during the late afternoon and evening hours.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 213 AM EDT Wednesday...Low pressure will pull away from the
region Friday night and Saturday, moving eastward across the
Canadian Maritimes and out over the Atlantic. This will place us
firmly under cold air advection and northwest flow, which should
persist through much of the weekend. Widespread showers Friday night
will gradually become more focused along the western slopes of the
northern Adirondacks and Greens Saturday, before tapering to an end
Saturday night or Sunday. Cold air advection will allow snow levels
to fall through the weekend as well, from about 2000 ft early
Saturday morning to around 1200 ft Sunday morning. As such, the
higher elevations will likely see rain change over to snow, with
some light accumulations expected, particularly over 1500 ft. The
cold air advection and steep lapse rates will also bring blustery
north/northwest winds, especially Friday night and Saturday when
gusts up to 30 mph are possible. We should get a brief break from
precipitation later Sunday into Monday, then shower chances increase
again as a northern stream trough digs into the Great Lakes. There`s
a lot of differences in model solutions early next week, so have
stayed close to NBM PoPs and weather for now. Temperatures will be
seasonably cool through the period, with highs mainly in the 40s and
lows in the mid 20s to mid 30s.
&&
.AVIATION /11Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Through 12Z Thursday...Local IFR/LIFR in fog through 14z this
morning, generally KEFK/KMPV. Otherwise VFR to prevail through
the TAF period. SKC-FEW250 through 00z this evening, then low
clouds start to slowly spread northward overnight. Ceilings
remaining AOA 3500 ft. Winds to remain light at 5 kt or less
through the TAF period, except at KMSS where NE winds 5-10 kt
are expected this afternoon.
Outlook...
Thursday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Likely RA.
Thursday Night: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Definite
RA.
Friday: Mainly IFR, with areas MVFR possible. Windy with gusts to
30 kt. Definite RA.
Friday Night: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Windy with
gusts to 30 kt. Definite SHRA.
Saturday: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. Windy with gusts
to 30 kt. Chance SHRA.
Saturday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHRA, Slight chance SHSN.
Sunday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
&&
.EQUIPMENT...
The TYX radar is down until further notice after a hardware
failure occurred. Replacement parts have been ordered and will
be installed. There is no ETA on its return to service.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Banacos
NEAR TERM...Banacos
SHORT TERM...Banacos
LONG TERM...Hastings
AVIATION...Hastings
EQUIPMENT...BTV
|
