896
FXUS61 KBTV 091721
AFDBTV
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
121 PM EDT Thu Oct 9 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
A building area of high pressure will provide our region with plenty
of sunshine and cool temperatures today. Highs will range from the
mid 40s mountain towns to mid 50s warmer valleys. A chilly night is
expected under clear skies and light winds. Lows generally in the
upper teens to upper 20s, except mid to upper 30s near Lake
Champlain. Warmer temperatures and dry conditions are expected for
Friday and Saturday, before a chance of showers returns late Sunday
into Monday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 215 AM EDT Thursday...Frost/freeze headlines continue for this
morning, while we upgraded the freeze watch to freeze warning for
tonight into Friday. Temps this morning have remained a little
elevated due to wind/clouds and associated caa.
Sfc analysis places 1033mb high pres just north of the Great Lakes
this morning with cyclonic northerly flow acrs our cwa. KCXX VAD
shows 925mb winds of 30 knots and 850mb winds of 35 knots, as
moderate caa conts. This wind have kept temps mostly in the mid
30s to mid 40s acrs our cwa, while midslopes and summits have
cooled back into the mid 20s to mid 30s. As sfc high pres
builds eastward today, our gradient wl slacken and winds wl
become under 10 mph. GOES-19 mid lvl water vapor indicates
plenty of dry air aloft, so anticipate plenty of sunshine today.
Progged 925mb temps hover near 3C, so expect highs only in the
mid 40s to mid 50s. These cool temps and 1033mb high pres
directly overhead tonight wl result in the coolest temps of the
fall season. Expecting lows to range from mid teens SLK to lower
30s at BTV to mid/upper 30s near the lake shore. Grand Isle
County may need a frost advisory for Friday morning, but given
the multiple segments already in place have held off for now.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 215 AM EDT Thursday...By 12z Friday the 1033mb high pres wl be
shifting into southern New England with return southerly flow and
associated waa developing acrs our fa. After a cool start, progged
925mb temps warm btwn 6-8C by 00z Sat, supporting highs mid/upper
50s to l/m 60s on Friday with mostly sunny skies. Did note
increasing 925mb to 850mb southwesterly winds of 15 to 30 knots with
some mixing potential during the aftn hours, while min rh values
approach near critical thresholds. While winds and humidity wl
probably remain below fire wx headline criteria, it wl need to be
watched closely, given recent activity. On Sat we wl be watching
closed/compact s/w energy dropping acrs the central Great
Lakes/northern Ohio Valley. Attm it looks like best moisture and
dynamics wl remain outside of our cwa, but these small closed
cyclonic circulations typically have low predictability and wl need
to be watched in the upcoming days. Otherwise temps warm into the
60s on Sat.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 200 AM EDT Thursday...A coastal low moving towards the
Northeast will be the main feature to watch this weekend, although
there is still plenty of uncertainty as to the evolution of this
system. Compared to previous forecasts, the latest ensemble and
deterministic guidance continue to support the more northerly low
track, increasing the chances for impacts across our forecast
region. Chances for precipitation look to be higher compared to
previous runs, with more of the forecast potentially receiving some
rain and chances for rainfall lingering into the beginning of next
week. Locally strong easterly winds also look possible, with some
potential for 40 mph gusts across Windsor and Rutland counties at
this time. As previously stated, there is still a lot of uncertainty
at this time, so be sure to monitor the forecast as we get closer.
Temperatures during this time frame look to be seasonable, with
daytime highs in the upper 50s and 60s and overnight lows in 30s and
40s.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Through 18Z Friday...VFR conditions expected through the
forecast period as strong high pressure builds atop the region.
Light/modest northwesterly flow from 5-10 kts with brief gusts
in the 14-18kt range to become light and variable from 00Z
onward as skies trend SKC.
Outlook...
Friday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Saturday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Saturday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Sunday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
Sunday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA.
Columbus Day: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Chance SHRA.
Monday Night: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Chance SHRA.
Tuesday: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Slight chance
SHRA.
&&
.CLIMATE...
Strong radiational cooling is expected Thursday night into
Friday morning. The follow will approach daily records.
Record Low Temperatures:
October 10:
KMPV: 24/1986 (Forecast value: 25)
KSLK: 18/1934 (Forecast value: 16)
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...Freeze Warning from 8 PM this evening to 8 AM EDT Friday for
VTZ002-005-006-008>011-016>021.
NY...Freeze Warning from 8 PM this evening to 8 AM EDT Friday for
NYZ026>028-035-087.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Taber
NEAR TERM...Taber
SHORT TERM...Taber
LONG TERM...Kremer
AVIATION...JMG
CLIMATE...BTV
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