316
FXUS61 KBTV 261747
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
147 PM EDT Fri Sep 26 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Aside from some afternoon scattered showers today, drier air
will return to set up another extended period without rain.
Seasonably warm conditions early next week will turn cooler as a
large area of polar high pressure deflects tropical systems
away from us.

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 158 AM EDT Friday...Two features on the weather map today
will combine to provide forcing for some showers, with best
ingredients especially across the northern Greens/northeast
Kingdom in Vermont. A thermally strong cold front will approach
from the north before it washes out near the international
border late this afternoon, while a deep trough to our west
finally kicks eastward across northern New York and Vermont.
These forcing mechanisms for lift, combined with the modest low
level moisture still around, and some meager, diurnally-driven
instability progged to reach 100 - 250 J/kg of SBCAPE, will lead
to scattered showers this afternoon. Convective allowing models
show mostly light to moderate showers, consistent with very
shallow cloud tops, with a few, widely scattered heavier ones
possible.

Most of the activity will likely be between about 1 PM
through 7 PM. Have increased coverage of 25-34% hourly PoP from
the National Blend of Models to account for quite a bit of
potential coverage of light showers that might not measure but
could move over much of northern New York and Vermont this
afternoon. Additional rain today will mainly be under 0.1", with
a few instances near 0.25" possible as rain duration for any
given location will tend to be brief.

High temperatures will be about 5 to 10 degrees above
yesterday`s highs, as the partial sunshine/lack of rain through
much of the day will aid in surface heating. Tonight we will be
stuck with some low clouds and fog given the aforementioned
front not making it through to allow for significant low level
drying, especially from central Vermont and points south/west.
Have shown patchy dense fog development overnight to the north
in the favored river valleys with expectation these areas will
see skies clear out, but would not be surprised if the entire
Connecticut River Valley fogs in. Quiet and pleasant weather is
expected on Saturday once the low clouds and fog mix out during
the morning as high pressure and upper level ridging crests over
our region. Slightly cooler air will be present compared to
Friday, with highs mainly in the low to mid 70s, which is still
several degrees above normal for the date.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 221 AM EDT Friday...The aforementioned ridge will quickly
scoot to our east Saturday night, setting up a weak southerly
flow scenario with a trough moving through. This trough will
help spawn a weak low pressure system over the Mid-Atlantic
region, which still looks to pass well to our south with rain
over southern New England. Up here, little moisture will be
present while the next cold front lags well behind, so the only
impact will be some modest breezes and a period of thin clouds,
which could mitigate development of valley fog. The trough will
quickly scoot to the east by daybreak, such that Sunday should
be another mostly sunny day. A weak cold front appears to sweep
across from the northwest uneventfully, which has led to a trend
towards slightly lower high temperatures. However, good mixing
on westerly flow will support temperatures still reaching the
mid 70s at elevations roughly 1500 feet to the low 80s at lowest
elevations.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 145 AM EDT Friday...Multi level high pressure and ridging will
build across the Plains and Midwest early next week and move
east/northeastward towards the forecast area, deflecting any
tropical moisture to the south. Westerly flow is anticipated to
advect milder temperatures into the region, keeping highs Monday
nearly 10 degrees above seasonal averages in the mid 70s to lower
80s. Then, a dry cold frontal boundary is expected to cross from
north/northwest to south/southeast and drop highs for the latter
half of the week to the upper 50s and lower 60s.

Even stronger high pressure will build out of the Hudson Bay around
midweek, continuing to keep our forecast area out of any
precipitation or even ,any cloudy weather. Nighttime conditions
next week will likely feature abundant patches of valley fog
with light or calm surface winds and plenty of clear sky. Lows
Sunday and Monday nights will be in the 40s and lower 50s, then
dropping after the cold front into the upper 20s to mid 40s.
This will mean frost is possible for many locations, most likely
in the Adirondacks, the Greens, and eastern Vermont as a whole.
Any frost products we might issue will likely not include the
Adirondacks and Northeast Kingdom because their designated
"growing season" ends Oct 1 (Tuesday night), but elsewhere the
frost/freeze program continues.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Through 18Z Saturday...A pre-frontal cloud band with MVFR ceilings
is currently draped across the St. Lawrence and northeastern
Adirondacks with the main front tracking east in eastern Ontario.
Scattered clouds with periodic MVFR ceilings will continue at
MSS/SLK/RUT/EFK through 00Z. A few light showers associated with the
cold front may pass through MSS/SLK/BTV between 20Z and 01Z,
however, confidence is low in any terminal impacts. As such only
used PROB30s. Beyond 02Z, westerly winds from the day will switch to
the northwest overnight and become calm as the cold front traverses
the area. Skies should clear by 06Z. Confidence in fog by 08Z is
medium with some low-level winds early in the overnight and some
uncertainty in low-cloud cover in northern New York acting as
possible limitations. Confidence is higher at MPV and EFK with
increasing confidence at MSS/SLK should they receive any showers
this evening. Northeasterly winds at BTV could perhaps lead to some
late fog development by 10Z. Any fog will dissipate by 13Z with
mainly clear and clear conditions tomorrow.


Outlook...

Saturday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Sunday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Sunday Night: VFR. Patchy BR.
Monday: VFR. Patchy BR.
Monday Night: VFR. Patchy BR.
Tuesday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday: VFR. NO SIG WX.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Kutikoff
NEAR TERM...Kutikoff
SHORT TERM...Kutikoff
LONG TERM...Storm
AVIATION...Danzig