053
FXUS61 KBTV 270622
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
222 AM EDT Mon Oct 27 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Seasonably cool and mostly cloudy conditions will continue into
today, with a few light rain and higher elevation snow showers
possible. Increasing sunshine and slightly milder daytime weather
midweek will eventually give way to widespread precipitation by late
in the week. The timing of the rain remains somewhat uncertain as a
complex area of low pressure develops to our south and west and
moves into the area.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 222 AM EDT Monday...A deck of low clouds has gradually been
backing down from the northeast during the night and it should
continue into southern Vermont in the next couple hours. It has put
an end to the radiational cooling, and temperatures have remained in
the 30s and low 40s in most places. In areas the clouds have not
reached, they have mostly fallen into the upper 20s. As the clouds
arrive, these temperatures will rise slightly. A few areas of mist
and drizzle have fallen from these clouds, mostly across the higher
terrain, and this will continue to be possible for the rest of the
night. A very persistent pattern will continue for the next couple
days as a rex block tries to set up. High pressure will remain
centered across western Quebec and eastern Ontario, while an area of
low pressure will develop and progress slowly across the Mid-
Atlantic. This pattern will keep the region seasonably cool with a
mix of sun and clouds. With relatively cold air aloft today, diurnal
heating could cause a few light showers to develop. Models try to
clear out the clouds for Tuesday but a developing inversion and
limited flow could make this tough, though there are large areas of
clearing to the north. Summits will stay below freezing through
today and continued clouds should keep most of the snow around, but
as the inversion begins to develop on Tuesday, temperatures should
gradually rise above freezing.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 222 AM EDT Monday...The rex-block like pattern will continue
through Wednesday, though a digging trough and strong surface low
will be moving toward the region from the west and they will start
to break it down. Wednesday will be another day of seasonably cool
temperatures and partly cloudy skies. If skies remain mostly clear
like forecast Tuesday night, most areas should see temperatures fall
well below freezing, and some areas could see their coldest
temperatures of the season. Summit temperatures should rise above
freezing on Wednesday as the inversion continues to develop, and it
will try to trap any lingering low cloud cover in place, so
hopefully it will be able to exit beforehand.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 222 AM EDT Monday...Models continue with projections of a low
pressure system moving into the Ohio River Valley before the long
wave pattern begins to stall. The stalling longwave is promoting a
delayed onset of precipitation from previous forecasts and model
runs. Latest guidance favors a Thursday onset of rain and high
elevation mixed/snow as the cyclone matures and becomes increasingly
cut off from flow. This pattern suggests daily chances of rainfall
continuing Thursday into the weekend. What`s unclear is how much
moisture will become entrained in this flow pattern off the Atlantic
and whether some moisture streaming out of the tropics can phase
with broader southerly flow across northern New York and Vermont.
Should this occur, rainfall rates and amounts will be higher than if
moisture remains directed offshore. EC and blended guidance favor a
more eastward position of heavier moisture transport, so continue to
lean in that direction while there are some outliers, like the GFS,
that point to potential for heavy rainfall. Guidance continues to
suggest stronger thermal/pressure gradients with some breezes as
this low move through the region while temperatures are favored to
remain around seasonal averages.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Through 06Z Tuesday...Mainly VFR conditions will continue with
clouds streaming southward out of Canada. EFK/MVP/SLK could have
periods of MVFR CIGs especially if drizzle occurs. Otherwise, CIGs
marginally lift after 12Z to VFR for all terminals. Fog chances were
sharply reduced due to pervasive cloud cover, so this was removed
for this morning. Flow will remain northerly less than 10kts except
at RUT where winds will drain off of terrain overnight.

Outlook...

Tuesday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Thursday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA.
Thursday Night: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. Likely SHRA.
Friday: Mainly MVFR, with areas IFR possible. Likely SHRA.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
The TYX radar is down until further notice after a hardware
failure occurred. Replacement parts have been ordered and will
be installed. There is no ETA on its return to service.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Myskowski
NEAR TERM...Myskowski
SHORT TERM...Myskowski
LONG TERM...Boyd
AVIATION...Boyd
EQUIPMENT...BTV