260
FXUS61 KBTV 251820
AFDBTV
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
220 PM EDT Sun Oct 25 2026
.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
As of 219 PM EDT Sunday...
No significant changes to the current forecast.
&&
.KEY MESSAGES...
As of 219 PM EDT Sunday...
1. A weak, moisture starved, cold front will pass through the
area tomorrow, with sharply colder temperatures heading towards
mid week.
2. Moderating temperatures are expected late this week and next
weekend with some brief rain possible Thursday night.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
As of 219 PM EDT Sunday...
KEY MESSAGE 1: High pressure today will begin to depart tonight into
tomorrow evening with the approach of a weak, moisture starved cold
front for tomorrow. GOES-19 visible satellite shows this front
nicely with a narrow band of cloud cover stretched across the
Michigan Upper Peninsula to west central Quebec. As the front moves
into northern New York tomorrow morning, antecedent dry conditions
at the surface will limit much if not all of the precipitation that
will be associated with the boundary. Virga looks likely with
dewpoint depressions of 5-10 degrees ahead of the front. A few
places along the northwest facing slopes of the Adirondacks and
northern Greens, including Jay Peak, may see a few sprinkles, but
accumulations will be little to non-measureable. In the deeper
valleys, we will likely not have enough time to saturate before dry
air advects in behind the boundary cutting off any precipitation
chances by tomorrow early afternoon. Winds will turn to the north-
northwest as the front moves through advecting sharply colder air
from Canada. Monday night lows will cool to the upper 20s for many
locations with a few locations hovering around the freezing mark in
the wider valleys. Tuesday will feature sunny skies with continued
cool high temperatures struggling to reach the upper 40s. The
coldest night of the season arrives Tuesday night under strong
radiational cooling. Overnight lows may approach some records for
Montpelier and St. Johnsbury, with records elsewhere residing in the
10th percentile or lower. Temperatures will drop to the teens across
the Adirondacks and low 20s elsewhere. Temperatures slowly rebound
Wednesday as high pressure and south winds help to moderate our flow
pattern.
KEY MESSAGE 2: High pressure overhead will allow the air mass to slowly
moderate Wednesday night into next weekend with highs climbing back
into the upper 50s and 60s on Thursday and Friday. There is the
potential for a few showers on Thursday night with another weak cold
front, about 30-60% chance of rain outside of central and south-
central Vermont, which have lower chances, closer to 10-40%. The
forecast for Halloween trick-or-treating looks dry and seasonably
mild under high pressure with afternoon temperatures in the upper
50s to mid 60s, falling into the lower and mid 50s in the evening.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Through 18Z Monday...VFR conditions and light winds are expected to
prevail through at least 15Z-17Z Monday as cloud coverage gradually
increases and ceilings lower over the next 24 hours ahead of and
during a frontal passage. Winds this afternoon are mainly out of the
southwest 5-10 knots, except PBG, which has a southeasterly lake
breeze, as well as MPV and RUT, which are reporting calm winds.
Winds will shift out of the south in the Champlain Valley this
evening, becoming southeast at RUT in their typical drainage wind
3-6 knots. Winds won`t be especially breezy tonight, but they should
remain steady enough at most sites to keep dense fog a low threat. A
Monday morning rain shower is possible at MSS ahead of and along the
front from 13Z-16Z, but otherwise dry conditions are anticipated at
the TAF sites over the next 24 hours. Ceilings could wobble around
the VFR-MVFR threshold towards 15Z-18Z Monday with the frontal
passage, but this will likely be more of a brief TEMPO situation as
we get closer. Winds will make a shift towards north-northwesterly
as the front crosses the region.
Outlook...
Monday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Thursday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
Thursday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight
chance SHRA.
Friday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. NO SIG WX.
&&
.EQUIPMENT...
Routine observations from KSLK ASOS are unavailable until
further notice. While the site is operating, it is not able to
disseminate observations normally at this time. Technicians are
aware of the issue, but time of return to service is unknown.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.
&&
$$
WHAT HAS CHANGED...Danzig
DISCUSSION...Danzig/Storm
AVIATION...Storm
EQUIPMENT...NWS BTV
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