832
FXUS61 KBTV 091911
AFDBTV
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
311 PM EDT Thu Oct 9 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
Temperatures cool sharply tonight with lows generally in the
upper teens to upper 20s, except mid to upper 30s near Lake
Champlain. Warmer temperatures and dry conditions are expected
for Friday and Saturday, before a chance of showers returns late
Sunday into Monday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
* Widespread Freezes and Frost Tonight. Lows will range in the
teens to upper 20s for most locations with mid/upper 30s near
Lake Champlain. This will be a threat to any gardens that have
survived recent frosts.
As of 241 PM EDT Thursday...
The pressure gradient will weaken through the afternoon and
evening as high pressure moves across the region. This will
result in ideal conditions for radiational cooling and chilly
overnight lows in the teens to upper 20s for most locations and
30s for locations adjacent to Lake Champlain. Freeze warnings
and a frost advisory are in effect. There are questions for some
spots just inland of Lake Champlain where models are projecting
some light winds developing prior to sunrise. This may keep
freezing temperatures from occurring as far as the BTV airport,
but most locations will remain susceptible to freezes.
Temperatures trend marginally warmer Friday with winds
decreasing and turning more southerly. Highs will likely range
in the 50s with lows favored in the 30s for most spots and upper
20s in the Adirondacks/northeastern Vermont. Models have changed
markedly for Friday with high pressure shifting southeast.
Previously, the gradient aloft tightened enough to produce some
15-30mph winds at 850mb. Now, models are trending a low to
remain west of the region keeping the gradient less compounded
resulting in slower speeds; could see some gusts to around 20
mph in the Champlain Valley with less flow elsewhere. Still RH
will be dropping with mixing heights increasing, so could see a
bump in fire activity should one ignite as duff dries and
becomes a potential contributor to spread - fire weather
concerns are low, but non-zero for very localized areas.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
As of 241 PM EDT Thursday...Continued high pressure is expected
for Saturday with southerly flow turning easterly late. This
will occur prior to the approach of a coastal low system.
Saturday and Saturday night are expected to remain dry outside
of a few sprinkles for a few spots in far southwestern St
Lawrence County as clouds increasing overnight. Highs will be
more pleasant in the 60s with correspondingly warmer lows in the
30s to low 40s.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 241 PM EDT Thursday...A coastal low moving towards the
Northeast will be the main feature to watch for Sunday through
late Monday, although there is still plenty of uncertainty as
to the evolution of this system. Model trends favor increasing
chances of precipitation; recent forecast trends to increase
precipitation chances as probabilistic guidance support higher
rainfall chances. Still looking at a ramp up in chances Sunday
afternoon. Biggest concern will be winds increasing as a progged
60kt jet moves northward ahead of precipitation. This would lead
to fire weather concerns, especially for southern Vermont where
reasonable worst case wind gust are potentially 30-40 mph
on western slopes out of the east. We`ll be watching this
closely. Once rains starts falling in earnest, concerns will
decrease; likely Sunday night into Monday. Cyclonic flow is
favored to linger into mid week with chances of showers
continuing. With the slower transition, a sharp cool off is
unlikely, but temperatures could decrease from Sunday`s highs in
the mid/upper 60s to the upper 50s/low 60s by Tuesday/Wednesday.
Lows share a similar trend cooling from the upper 30s/40s into
the 30s to around 40 degrees over the same time frame.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Through 18Z Friday...VFR conditions expected through the
forecast period as strong high pressure builds atop the region.
Light/modest northwesterly flow from 5-10 kts with brief gusts
in the 14-18kt range to become light and variable from 00Z
onward as skies trend SKC.
Outlook...
Friday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Saturday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Saturday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Sunday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
Sunday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA.
Columbus Day: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Chance SHRA.
Monday Night: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Chance SHRA.
Tuesday: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Slight chance
SHRA.
&&
.CLIMATE...
Strong radiational cooling is expected Thursday night into
Friday morning. The follow will approach daily records.
Record Low Temperatures:
October 10:
KMPV: 24/1986 (Forecast value: 25)
KSLK: 18/1934 (Forecast value: 16)
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...Freeze Warning from 8 PM this evening to 8 AM EDT Friday for
VTZ002-005-006-008>011-016>021.
Frost Advisory from midnight tonight to 8 AM EDT Friday for
VTZ001.
NY...Freeze Warning from 8 PM this evening to 8 AM EDT Friday for
NYZ026>028-035-087.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Boyd/Kremer
NEAR TERM...Boyd
SHORT TERM...Boyd
LONG TERM...Boyd/Kremer
AVIATION...JMG
CLIMATE...BTV
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