FXUS61 KBTV 170730
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Burlington VT
330 AM EDT Sun Mar 17 2019
The area will continue to experience below normal temperatures
and some scattered snow showers through Monday morning, before a
drying trend kicks off the work week. Temperatures will remain
below seasonal norms through Tuesday night, but increasing
southerly flow Wednesday will allow temperatures to return to
near or just above normal values. Precipitation chances increase
Wednesday night through Thursday as a trough moves through.
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 321 AM EDT Sunday...Radar imagery shows diminishing snow
showers in the wake of the passage of a weak trough earlier this
morning. As an upper-level wave exits to the east, lack of any
real forcing to speak of will support a general drying trend
through the remainder of the morning. There may be a few
exceptions where a stray snow shower may linger through around
dawn though, (including Burlington, where northwesterly flow
snow showers are notoriously hard to shut off). After dawn
though, most areas should be dry. However, HiRes models are
indicating a reblossoming of some scattered snow showers this
afternoon amid an increasingly unstable lower atmosphere. Deep
forcing/moisture is lacking however, so not expecting any
accumulations. In addition to some scattered convective snow
showers, a well mixed boundary layer extending to 800 mb or so
will support some westerly gusts, generally 10-20 mph, during
the afternoon hours. Highs today will be in the upper 20s to low
Another weak shortwave will move through the area tonight, which
will maintain some scattered light snow shower activity through
the overnight hours. Portions of the northern Adirondacks may
pick up a dusting to a few tenths of an inch thanks to some
modest moisture advecting eastward off of Lake Ontario, but not
expecting any accumulations further east in Vermont. Winds will
diminish overnight tonight, allowing temperatures to drop into
Broad cyclonic flow will remain over the region Monday, keeping
generally unsettled, cloudy weather in place. Monday does look
to trend drier though in the absence of any upper waves progged
to move through. However, can`t rule out a stray snow shower
here or there with continued instability in the low-levels.
Highs will once again be below normal in the upper 20s to low
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 321 AM EDT Sunday...Area remains in northwest flow aloft Monday
night and Tuesday. This will result in below normal
temperatures...especially with low temperatures Monday night with
lows in the single digits and teens. Highs on Tuesday will generally
be in the upper 20s to mid 30s. Not expecting any precipitation
during this period with drier air and surface high pressure building
into the region.
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 321 AM EDT Sunday...Dry weather continues Tuesday night into
the first half of Wednesday. Warm air advection develops as flow
aloft backs to the west and southwest. While low temperatures
Tuesday night will be at or below normal we should see at or above
normal temperatures on Wednesday with highs in the upper 30s to mid
40s. The backed flow to the southwest is an indication an upper
level trough is approaching and chances for precipitation will
increase as the trough moves across the area Wednesday night into
Thursday. Have gone with a chance of rain or snow showers Wednesday
night and a chance of rain showers for Thursday with snow showers
confined to the higher elevations. Starting Thursday night and
continuing into the weekend we will have northwest flow aloft become
established over the area and thus expecting a return to below
normal temperatures and drier weather with just a chance for some
lingering snow showers on Friday.
.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Through 06Z Monday...Snow showers are diminishing over the area
early this morning after a band of heavier snow pushed through
over the last couple of hours. Expecting KMSS/KPBG/KRUT to be
mainly VFR through the remainder of the TAF period. KSLK, KBTV,
and KMPV will see snow showers lingering a littler longer
through the overnight hours, but expecting all of these sites to
trend VFR between 08Z and 12Z as snow showers end. After a
mainly dry end to the morning, HiRes models are indicating some
scattered snow showers redeveloping during the afternoon hours.
While conditions are expected to be primarily VFR through the
afternoon, any terminals that do see some passing snow showers
will see a temporary reduction to MVFR/IFR visibilities and
ceilings. Between 00Z and 06Z tonight, expecting a slight
increase in snow shower activity over northern New York
terminals as a weak upper wave moves through.
Light westerly winds will continue through the morning, then
increase into the afternoon with some gusts 10-20 mph possible
between 15Z and 21Z. Winds will diminish after 00Z as high
pressure builds in.
Monday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Monday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday Night: VFR. Chance SHSN.
Thursday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA,