16.1
Current conditions from King Hill
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  Wednesday November 14, 2018

 

NWS Area Forecast Discussion


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000
FXUS61 KBTV 130912
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
412 AM EST Tue Nov 13 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure moving along the East Coast will produce a mix of rain
and wet snow across the North Country today. Snow accumulations will
range from an inch or two in the Champlain and Saint Lawrence
Valley to 3 to 6 inches in the mountains of Vermont and northern New
York. Blustery and colder conditions follow this system tonight into
Wednesday, with highs mainly in the upper teens to upper 20s.
Another coastal system will impact our region on Friday into
Saturday with a mix of rain and snow likely.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 408 AM EST Tuesday...Winter storm warnings continue for northern
Vermont, including the Northeast Kingdom for 4 to 8 inches of
wet snow. Meanwhile, winter weather advisories continue for the
central/southern Green Mountains in VT and northern Dacks in NY
for 3 to 6 inches of wet snow. Meanwhile, a dusting to an inch
or two of slushy wet snow is possible across the cpv/slv. Given
timing of expected heaviest snowfall, a difficult morning
commute is likely with poor visibilities along with snow covered
and slippery roads, especially above 1000 feet. The heavy wet
snow will have the potential to cause isolated to scattered
power outages.

An extremely challenging snowfall forecast continues across our cwa
today, especially in the valleys below 1000 feet where crnt temps
are holding in the mid 30s. Little overall change in forecast
occurred with this package, other than to sharpen west to east qpf
gradient and trim back snowfall amounts over the slv/western dacks.
Fast/progressive system with open circulation will result in qpf
ranging from 0.10 to 0.20 slv/western dacks to 0.30 to 0.50 cpv
to 0.50 to 0.75 for eastern VT. These type of open wave and
fast moving systems typical under perform in the qpf department
across our cwa, especially western sections.

Crnt thinking is a band of moderate to briefly heavy precip will
lift from south to north across most of VT and the eastern Dacks
btwn 10z-16z this morning, per latest radar trends. This band of
precip will have enough dynamics to cool the column just enough to
produce a period of wet snow, even into parts of the cpv.
Albany, NY started at 42f, but heavier precip arrived and sfc
temp cooled to 34f with snow falling, expect similar scenario to
occur at Rutland/Middlebury/BTV. The tricky part for the cpv,
including the BTV area how much accumulates given warm sfc
temps. Thinking very little near the water front, but a quick
slushy inch or two is possible near the airport into the
Essex/Williston/ and Jericho areas.

However, if this strong band stays south, then little snow
accumulation would be anticipated in this area. The northern
dacks and mountains of central/northern VT should stay cold
enough for all snow above 1000 feet. The best 850 to 700mb fgen
forcing and associated uvv`s lifts from south to north across
our central/eastern cwa btwn 10-16z today. Once this better uvv
couplet lifts northeast of our fa, expect temps to warm back
into the mid/upper 30s with a mix of light rain/snow depending
upon elevation. As precip tapers off expect snow levels to climb
around 1500 feet, before winds shift to the west/northwest by
21z and cold air advection develops. Given the progged 925mb to
850mb 0c line bisects our southern cwa during the event, the
heaviest axis of qpf/snowfall should occur 25 to 50 miles north
of this line, over central VT.

Given very fast/progressive flow aloft with no closed 7h/5h
circulation to advect deeper Atlantic moisture on the backside,
thinking precip ends quickly from west to east btwn 18z-21z today. A
brief period of upslope snow showers are possible as strong low
level caa occurs and squeezes out remaining moisture in the column
this evening. However, moisture within the favorable snow growth
region is limited, which will minimize additional snowfall amounts.

Strong low level caa develops on brisk west/northwest winds tonight,
as 925mb to 850mb temps crush into the -10c to -16c range by Weds
morning. Lows will range from the single digits summits to l/m 20s
cpv. Expect wind chill values near 20 below summits to single digits
and teens on Weds morning. A cold and dry day is anticipated on
Weds. However, soundings show lake instability to be extreme off
Lake Champlain, so anticipate clouds downwind in the BTV area, along
with maybe a few flurries/light snow showers. The missing element
for snowfall is moisture. Highs teens to mid/upper 20s with brisk
northwest winds prevailing.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 400 AM EST Tuesday...High pressure will be cresting
overhead Wednesday night into Thursday and this will lead to
some rather cold temperatures Wednesday night. 925mb temps will
be in the -11C to -14C range and that supports lows in the
single digits to low teens. The challenge will be that if we do
get that cold, then with a lake water temperature in upper 40s
we should see a significant lake response. So I`ve added some
cloud cover directly over Lake Champlain and just to the east as
light winds should push some of those clouds into the eastern
Champlain Valley. Once the high crests over the North Country
on Thursday the flow will be light enough that I believe we`ll
see some tea kettling effect where there are clear skies across
most of the North Country with mostly cloudy to overcast skies
right next to Lake Champlain.

Temps should warm into the upper 20s to low 30s in the valleys
under clear skies and no chance for precip on Thursday.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 400 AM EST Tuesday...Heading into the weekend we`ll see
another round of moderate snow moving into the region. An upper
level cutoff low pressure system will end up phasing with a
developing coastal low on Friday morning. Consensus guidance
continues to be in fairly decent agreement with the low track
moving just off Cape Cod but west of the benchmark. The 700mb
closed low tracks south of the region which should push quite a
bit of moisture into the atmosphere before the precip starts to
fall. Expect the snow to start falling early Friday morning and
we should get a quick burst of some moderate snowfall Friday
morning as the surface low deepens to our east. I`d anticipate
the eastern slopes seeing the highest totals initially as the
easterly flow should enhance the surface lift.

The temperature profile continues to be on the marginal side in
the valleys but the 00z suite trended colder with more snow. We
could be looking at another significant system bringing a round
of heavy wet snow. Its too early to have specific snow totals
but if trends continue, the entire region should see plowable
snow. Additionally snow ratios are on the lower side of climo
meaning we`ll need to monitor for potential impacts from heavy
wet snow.

After the low pressure system pushes out of the region the
upper level pattern shifts to fast nearly zonal flow with
modest high pressure at the surface. Temps will start out the
weekend on the mildish side with highs in the upper 30s to low
40s but will quickly drop down below normal for Sunday into
Monday.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Through 06Z Wednesday...Challenging aviation forecast with
moderate impacts expected this morning at mpv/slk in wet
snowfall. Expect a band of moderate snow with brief periods of
heavy snow to impact mpv/slk btwn 10-16z this morning. Vis will
be around 1/2sm with cigs hovering around ifr conditions at
these two terminal. Meanwhile, thinking a burst of snow mixed
with rain occurs at rut/pbg/btv with vis dropping btwn 1-2sm in
light snow with cigs near ifr conditions. Mss has similar
conditions this morning, but improves to mvfr/vfr by 18z with
breezy west winds developing at 15 to 25 knots. Improving
conditions will develop at pbg/btv/rut by early aftn with vfr.
Lingering clouds and -shsn activity will produce a combination
of mvfr/ifr at slk/mpv.

Outlook...

Wednesday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Thursday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Thursday Night: VFR. Likely SN.
Friday: MVFR and IFR. Likely SN, Likely RA.
Friday Night: Mainly MVFR, with local VFR possible. Chance SHSN.
Saturday: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. Chance SHSN,
Chance SHRA.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...Winter Weather Advisory until 6 PM EST this evening for VTZ008-
     010-012-016>019.
     Winter Storm Warning until 6 PM EST this evening for VTZ003-
     004-006-007.
NY...Winter Weather Advisory until 6 PM EST this evening for
     NYZ029>031-034.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Taber
NEAR TERM...Taber
SHORT TERM...Deal
LONG TERM...Deal
AVIATION...Taber


 
 
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