020
FXUS61 KBTV 261112
AFDBTV
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
712 AM EDT Fri Sep 26 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
Aside from some afternoon scattered showers today, drier air
will return to set up another extended period without rain.
Seasonably warm conditions early next week will turn cooler as a
large area of polar high pressure deflects tropical systems
away from us.
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 158 AM EDT Friday...Two features on the weather map today
will combine to provide forcing for some showers, with best
ingredients especially across the northern Greens/northeast
Kingdom in Vermont. A thermally strong cold front will approach
from the north before it washes out near the international
border late this afternoon, while a deep trough to our west
finally kicks eastward across northern New York and Vermont.
These forcing mechanisms for lift, combined with the modest low
level moisture still around, and some meager, diurnally-driven
instability progged to reach 100 - 250 J/kg of SBCAPE, will lead
to scattered showers this afternoon. Convective allowing models
show mostly light to moderate showers, consistent with very
shallow cloud tops, with a few, widely scattered heavier ones
possible.
Most of the activity will likely be between about 1 PM
through 7 PM. Have increased coverage of 25-34% hourly PoP from
the National Blend of Models to account for quite a bit of
potential coverage of light showers that might not measure but
could move over much of northern New York and Vermont this
afternoon. Additional rain today will mainly be under 0.1", with
a few instances near 0.25" possible as rain duration for any
given location will tend to be brief.
High temperatures will be about 5 to 10 degrees above
yesterday`s highs, as the partial sunshine/lack of rain through
much of the day will aid in surface heating. Tonight we will be
stuck with some low clouds and fog given the aforementioned
front not making it through to allow for significant low level
drying, especially from central Vermont and points south/west.
Have shown patchy dense fog development overnight to the north
in the favored river valleys with expectation these areas will
see skies clear out, but would not be surprised if the entire
Connecticut River Valley fogs in. Quiet and pleasant weather is
expected on Saturday once the low clouds and fog mix out during
the morning as high pressure and upper level ridging crests over
our region. Slightly cooler air will be present compared to
Friday, with highs mainly in the low to mid 70s, which is still
several degrees above normal for the date.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 221 AM EDT Friday...The aforementioned ridge will quickly
scoot to our east Saturday night, setting up a weak southerly
flow scenario with a trough moving through. This trough will
help spawn a weak low pressure system over the Mid-Atlantic
region, which still looks to pass well to our south with rain
over southern New England. Up here, little moisture will be
present while the next cold front lags well behind, so the only
impact will be some modest breezes and a period of thin clouds,
which could mitigate development of valley fog. The trough will
quickly scoot to the east by daybreak, such that Sunday should
be another mostly sunny day. A weak cold front appears to sweep
across from the northwest uneventfully, which has led to a trend
towards slightly lower high temperatures. However, good mixing
on westerly flow will support temperatures still reaching the
mid 70s at elevations roughly 1500 feet to the low 80s at lowest
elevations.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 145 AM EDT Friday...Multi level high pressure and ridging will
build across the Plains and Midwest early next week and move
east/northeastward towards the forecast area, deflecting any
tropical moisture to the south. Westerly flow is anticipated to
advect milder temperatures into the region, keeping highs Monday
nearly 10 degrees above seasonal averages in the mid 70s to lower
80s. Then, a dry cold frontal boundary is expected to cross from
north/northwest to south/southeast and drop highs for the latter
half of the week to the upper 50s and lower 60s.
Even stronger high pressure will build out of the Hudson Bay around
midweek, continuing to keep our forecast area out of any
precipitation or even ,any cloudy weather. Nighttime conditions
next week will likely feature abundant patches of valley fog
with light or calm surface winds and plenty of clear sky. Lows
Sunday and Monday nights will be in the 40s and lower 50s, then
dropping after the cold front into the upper 20s to mid 40s.
This will mean frost is possible for many locations, most likely
in the Adirondacks, the Greens, and eastern Vermont as a whole.
Any frost products we might issue will likely not include the
Adirondacks and Northeast Kingdom because their designated
"growing season" ends Oct 1 (Tuesday night), but elsewhere the
frost/freeze program continues.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Through 12Z Saturday...Ceilings are currently hovering around
1700-3500 feet above ground level except at SLK and MSS where
cigs around 300-700 feet persist. We expect IFR ceilings to
continue through about 14Z-16Z Friday when SLK and MSS join the
other sites in a mix of MVFR and IFR conditions while drier air
moves in from the northwest.
Visibilities are also in flux this morning around 1/4 to 6
miles in localized, sporadic patches of fog (KPBG at the moment)
in light and variable or calm winds. This fog is forecast to be
short- lived and lift over the next couple hours, then a
thermally strong cold front is anticipated to approach from the
north today, producing scattered afternoon showers that could
reduce visibilities again, perhaps 4-6 miles. Highest chances
for showers occur 18Z Friday through 00Z Saturday. Winds will
also make a shift with the passage of the cold front, starting
southwesterly this morning and turning west/northwesterly in the
afternoon.
Tonight, skies have the potential to clear out over typical
valley fog locations, and many models are already being
aggressive with lowering ceilings and/or vis to IFR at SLK, MPV,
EFK, and MSS 06Z-07Z Saturday onwards as winds go calm again,
but current forecast confidence leans towards mainly just the
Connecticut River Valley fogging in. That being said, it is the
right time of year as high pressure builds in from the north
overnight tonight. As confidence increases, future TAFs may
include lowered visibilities and/or ceilings this coming night.
Outlook...
Saturday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Saturday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Sunday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Sunday Night: VFR. Patchy BR.
Monday: VFR. Patchy BR.
Monday Night: VFR. Patchy BR.
Tuesday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Kutikoff
NEAR TERM...Kutikoff
SHORT TERM...Kutikoff
LONG TERM...Storm
AVIATION...Storm
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