210
FXUS61 KBTV 040519
AFDBTV
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
119 AM EDT Sat Oct 4 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will remain the dominant weather feature through this
weekend with temperatures climbing well above normal, with some
daily record high temperatures in jeopardy. The next chances for
precipitation look to arrive Tuesday into Wednesday as a cold front
passes through the region, with cool and dry conditions returning
for the later half of the week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 138 PM EDT Friday...High pressure will continue to be the
dominant weather feature across the region, with a warming trend
expected over the next few days with warm southerly flow ushering
in. Overnight lows will be on the milder side, especially compared
to previous nights, with temperatures dropping into the 40s and
lower 50s. Some fog development will be likely, especially in the
more favored river valleys given clear skies and calm winds
overnight.
For tomorrow, another pleasant and warm October day is expected
across the region with plenty of sunshine. High temperatures will
climb into the 70s areawide, with some locations in the broader
valleys nearing or reaching the low 80s. Overnight lows will once
again be mild, dropping into the upper 40s and 50s.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 138 PM EDT Friday...Unseasonably warm temperatures are expected
for Sunday as the region remains under the influence of high
pressure. High temperatures on Sunday will climb into the upper 70s
to mid 80s, which is nearly 15 to 20 degrees above climatological
normals for early October. Several daily records may be in jeopardy,
with additional information found in the climate section below.
Overnight lows will also be on the warm side, with temperatures only
dropping into the mid 40s to upper 50s.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 138 PM EDT Friday...Another quiet weather day is expected on
Monday. A pocket of slightly cooler temperatures aloft, and also
drier air will pivot around the western periphery of departing
surface high pressure. Temperatures on Monday will largely be a
repeat of Sunday, give or take a degree or two. Increasing wind
gusts 15 to 25 mph and low relative humidities around 30 to 40
percent could bear watching. Deep southwesterly flow will ensure
very warm temperatures for an October night with 50s to near 60,
warmest in the broad valleys as per usual.
On Tuesday afternoon, a well defined frontal boundary remains poised
to cross southeast. A long stretch of 110-120 kt winds at 250hPa
will be lift through the St. Lawrence River and the Gulf of St.
Lawrence, which means we will be favorably placed in the right
entrance region of that jet. Any acceleration of low to mid-level
flow fortunately happens once the system is just downstream. We
should anticipate some southwesterly gusts ahead of the front, but
it will likely be nothing outstanding. The combination of a well-
defined front, upper level divergence, and 100-250 J/kg of CAPE
should allow for modest rainfall of 0.25-0.75". Raw long range
ensemble probabilities of over 0.5" range between 20-50%. NBM
probabilities are more generous at 40-70%. There`s a small chance
for a bit of phasing as a vort currently positioned all the way in
Alaska gets sucked into the channeled flow over the region by next
Tuesday night into Wednesday. This scenario would result in a
resurgence of rain on Wednesday and give us a bit extra rain. Given
that it`s only getting into better sampled areas, we`ll give it some
time to figure out if this scenario is worth following.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Through 06Z Sunday...Mostly clear skies and light winds
currently at our TAF sites with VFR conditions. Expect this
general trend to prevail overnight with the exception of some
shallow/patchy fog at MPV between 10z and 12z Sat. Did note sfc
dwpt at MPV is 10 degrees higher than 24 hours ago, along with
slightly warmer sfc temps. Given this increase in moisture, feel
the potential for fog is better tonight, so have tempo IFR
conditions between 10z and 12z. Otherwise, still rather dry at
SLK and soundings suggest another low level jet of 10 to 15
knots between 200 and 600 feet AGL, so did not place IFR
conditions in TAF for SLK. Any IFR will improve to VFR by 12z
Saturday and prevail through the rest of the day with light and
variable winds.
Outlook...
Sunday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Sunday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Monday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Monday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA.
Tuesday Night: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Definite
SHRA.
Wednesday: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Chance SHRA.
&&
.CLIMATE...
Incoming heat this weekend is presently forecast to approach
daily record values. The most likely dates for records will be
Sunday October 5th and Monday October 6th. Below are some of the
daily records in jeopardy of being broken (current forecast
within 3 degrees of the record).
Record High Temperatures:
October 5:
KBTV: 83/2023
KMPV: 82/1951
KPBG: 80/2005
KMSS: 85/1991
KSLK: 83/2023
October 6:
KBTV: 82/1990
KMPV: 79/1990
KMSS: 81/2005
KSLK: 80/1946
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Kremer
NEAR TERM...Kremer
SHORT TERM...Kremer
LONG TERM...Haynes
AVIATION...Taber/Verasamy
CLIMATE...BTV
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