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  Tuesday April 13, 2021

 

NWS Area Forecast Discussion


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722
FXUS61 KBTV 112239
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
639 PM EDT Sun Apr 11 2021

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak occluded front has stalled across southern and central New
York but should make some progress northward with rain chances
increasing across far southern Vermont and portions of northern New
York tonight. Otherwise, dry conditions are expected through the
middle of next week with high pressure building back across the
region. Temperatures will be a little cooler than what we have
observed as of late but we will still see values 5 to 15 degrees
above normal.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
As of 639 PM EDT Sunday...Aside from some pinprick showers that
developed amidst marginal instability in Chittenden County in
Vermont that moved west across Lake Champlain and over St.
Lawrence County in New York, the frontal boundary has just ever
so slightly crept northwards since the last update. Made minor
tweaks, but on the whole, the forecast remains in great shape.
Previous Discussion below.

To say the ridge of high pressure overhead is stubborn is an
understatement as precipitation has once again struggled to move
into the North Country. The occluded front that we have been
talking about for several days now has stalled across southern
and central New York and shows little to no sign of trying to
advance northward. There are some light radar reflectivities
forming closer to us but surface observations show 20 degree
dewpoint depressions and no rainfall making it to the surface.
Given the trends we have seen, we have begun to really ramp down
PoPs and QPF through the afternoon and overnight hours tonight.
Nevertheless, we still have some 60 to 70 percent PoPs across
far southern St. Lawrence County. Rainfall amounts are now
expected to be less than a tenth of an inch across the entire
region with the exception of southern St. Lawrence County which
could see upwards to 0.25" if they are lucky.

The backdoor cold front, which is highly visible in the theta-e
fields this afternoon, will continue to sag southward and will
suppress rain chances south of our forecast area for Monday and
Monday night. "Cooler" temperatures are in store for Monday with
highs in the mid 50s to mid 60s but these values continue to be 10-
15 degrees above seasonal normals. While we could seriously use some
rain as drought conditions begin to establish across the region,
having this kind of weather for this extended period is quite rare
so try to enjoy it while it is here.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 307 PM EDT Sunday...Excellent example of a col developing over
our area for much of Tuesday and Tuesday night. This will result in
quiet weather during the period with no precipitation, highs in the
mid 50s to lower 60s on Tuesday, and lows Tuesday night in the mid
30s to mid 40s.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 307 PM EDT Sunday...Wednesday is still looking like a nice day
with relatively dry weather expected. Cannot rule out the
possibility of a few showers later in the day, but only going with a
slight chance at this point for parts of northern New York. Over the
past week we have been waiting for upper lows forecast to move
across our area and they essentially have not. The next one is
forecast to approach the area on Thursday and Friday. With the
blocking pattern of late, the longer range data struggling to handle
all of the upper lows, and not everyone on board with the track of
this latest feature it may be best to increase precipitation chances
a little, but not significantly ramp up numbers just yet. So will
mention precipitation chances in the slight chance and chance
categories for now during the Thursday through Friday time period.
Looks like we return to a dry pattern for the weekend. High
temperatures during the extended period will generally be about 4 to
8 degrees above normal for this time of year.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Through 18Z Monday...VFR conditions continue to prevail across
the North Country with ceilings generally 20,000 ft our higher
as high clouds in advance of a frontal occlusion overspread the
region. Winds have been out of the north to northeast this
morning and early afternoon at 7-15 knots with some gustier
winds at Rutland and Massena but we should see winds flip to the
south to southeast between 21Z and 22Z. At Massena, it looks
like winds will stay from the northeast with bouts of gusts to
20-25 knots through much of the forecast period. Precipitation
continues to look lackluster with rainfall struggling to advance
northward. In response, we have lowered PoPs and have just a
mention of VCSH at KRUT and KSLK tonight. Otherwise, dry weather
with VFR conditions will persist through the next 24 hours.

Outlook...

Monday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA.
Wednesday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
Wednesday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. NO SIG WX.
Thursday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Slight chance RA.
Thursday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. NO SIG WX.
Friday: Mainly MVFR, with local VFR possible. NO SIG WX.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Clay
NEAR TERM...Clay/Haynes
SHORT TERM...Evenson
LONG TERM...Evenson
AVIATION...Clay



 
 
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