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  Thursday October 19, 2017


NWS Area Forecast Discussion

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FXUS61 KBTV 151745

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
145 PM EDT Sun Oct 15 2017

Warm and breezy to windy conditions will continue this afternoon
across the North Country ahead of a slow moving cold front.
High temperatures will be in the 70s...which is 15 to 20 degrees
above normal for mid-October. Late this afternoon into this
evening, the cold front will move across the area and bring a
line of showers with a few embedded thunderstorms, especially
across northern New York. The showers and possible thunderstorms
may locally enhance wind gusts for a brief period this evening,
with wind gusts in excess of 40 to 45 mph possible. Cooler and
drier weather is expected for Monday, and dry conditions with
moderating temperatures for the mid-week period.


As of 1259 PM EDT Sunday...Finally getting more noticeable
clearing early this afternoon and have tweaked the grids to
match the current scenario. Temperatures are warming as a result
and will continue as the afternoon wears on. Area of showers
over the eastern Great Lakes will eventually move into the
region later this afternoon and even and may produce enhanced
wind gusts. Its already breezy to windy out there and still
expect parts of northern New York to experience wind gusts in
the 40 to 50 mph range with gusts in the 30 to 40 mph range
elsewhere. Going forecast has this all covered well.

Previous Discussion...
Forecast remains on track. Have increased low clouds across
Vermont thru 15-16Z based on upstream cloud trends and rapid
increase in low-level southerly PBL winds. Warm front has pushed
north of the St. Lawrence Valley, and associated shower
activity has moved into srn Quebec. Overnight, showers produced
0.13" rainfall at KMSS. With the front north of the border, will
see dry conditions in the warm sector across the North Country
for the balance of the daylight hrs today.

Despite this, appears sunshine will be rather limited today
with widespread low stratus in place across NJ/ern PA/srn NY,
which will lift nwd with increasing southerly gradient flow. Air
mass is still quite warm (+13 to +14C) at 850mb, and starting
in the upr 50s to low 60s early this AM. Thinking mainly mid-70s
for highs across the area. A few breaks in the overcast could
result in upper 70s in spots, but not optimistic given upstream
cloud trends.

Continued the Wind Advisory for the Saint Lawrence Valley from
5pm Sunday to 2am Monday and for most of the Northern
Adirondacks from 8pm Sunday to 2am Monday morning. Greater cloud
cover may lessen low-level downward mixing potl a bit, but
still looking at gusts 40-45 mph as a general rule across the
advisory area, with a few higher gusts. Also close to 40 mph
across the Champlain Islands and surrounding nrn Champlain
Valley late this afternoon and evening. Included mention of
these gusts in the morning HWO issuance. Also, a Lake Wind
Advisory has been posted for winds 25-35kts sustained on Lake
Champlain by this afternoon.

In terms of precipitation, good consistency with low-topped
convective line developing along pre-frontal trough across nrn
NY between 21-23Z, through the Champlain Valley 23-01Z, and then
exiting east of VT quickly by 03Z. SBCAPE up to 250 J/kg, mainly
across nrn NY, so kept the slight chance of an embedded tstm.
The convection may induce better sfc wind gusts, and peak winds
may occur in vicinity of this convective line this evening, and
will need to be monitored as it tracks from west to east across
the region.

Westerly wind shift expected overnight, with secondary frontal
passage around 06Z. May see a few lingering orographic induced
showers thru the pre-dawn hrs, with temps falling back to the
low-mid 40s by daybreak Monday.


As of 429 AM EDT Sunday...Monday brings a stark change from the
weekend, as temperatures will truly feel fall like as the cold
front pushes east of the CWA. 925mb temperatures of 19-20C will
see dramatic drops to 1-2C by Monday morning. This will be
coupled with brisk NW winds of 10-25mph which will feel like a
raw welcome to the new week as high temps will only be in the
upper 40s with some valley locations in the low 50s. Winds will
weaken throughout the day as a surface ridge begins to build
into the area.

Monday night looks to be the coldest night of the season so far
as clearing skies will temperatures drop to mid to low 30s in
the valleys and 20s across the rest of the area. Tuesday sees
the upper trough pass and not much more than some increased
clouds along the international border with it. Temps begin to
rebound with highs in the mid to upper 50s for the region.


As of 1212 PM EDT
Sunday...Indian summer for the long term except some have yet to
see a freeze/frost although upcoming Monday night may have
changed that. Other question, given lack of non-summer weather
is this just an extension of summer?

The persistent and well advertised above normal pattern will
continue in this period. Normal Highs/Lows should be 50s/30s
respectively yet it looks like 60s and perhaps touching 70 during
this stretch with primarily 40s at night.

We start this period on Wed with zonal flow aloft primarily along
and north of area and some ridging ahead of northern stream closed
low and trof that will pass well to our north and bring a slight
wind shift and perhaps a intl border/mtn sprinkle on Thu.

Thereafter, SE CONUS Ridge dominates the flow with SW flow aloft and
surface high across eastern seaboard with our are just on
northern extent for SW return flow. Another northern stream
system approaches Great Lakes late Sun/Sun ngt with a threat of
showers but for us...perhaps some increasing clouds Sun aftn.

Next weekend looks sunnier and perhaps warmer than this weekend.


Through 18Z Monday...Strong and gusty winds will exist from the
south and southwest through about 04z with gusts in the 30 to 40
knot range. A cold front will move across the area after 00z and
winds will eventually become more west and northwest with time
and start to taper off in speeds after 12z...but will still see
gusts in the 15 to 25 knot range. Ceilings through the period
will be in the VFR to MVFR categories. A line of showers and
possibly a thunderstorm will move across the area between 21z
and 03z...which may lower visibilities down into the MVFR
category at times.


Monday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday: VFR. Breezy. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Thursday: VFR. Breezy. NO SIG WX.


Lake Wind Advisory posted for today into tonight. Will see south
winds ramp up quickly this morning, reaching 15-25 kts by late
morning, and then 25-35kt range for the afternoon and early
evening hrs. Waves will build to 3-5ft, highest across the
northern end of the broad lake and south of the Route 2 causeway
near Grand Isle/South Hero.


NY...Wind Advisory from 5 PM this afternoon to 2 AM EDT Monday for
     Wind Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 2 AM EDT Monday for


NEAR TERM...Banacos/Evenson
SHORT TERM...Verasamy

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