Current conditions from King Hill
Updated every 5 minutes
  Monday September 16, 2019


NWS Area Forecast Discussion

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FXUS61 KBTV 140759

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
359 AM EDT Sat Sep 14 2019

Gusty winds early Saturday morning with light showers possible
until midnight as an elongated front washes out over the North
Country. Seasonable temperatures and quiet weather will follow
on Sunday but another round of showers will be possible Sunday
night. High pressure will then settle into the region through
the first half of the upcoming week bringing warmer and drier
conditions to the region.


As of 358 AM EDT Saturday...An elongated cold front is pushing
east across St. Lawrence and Franklin County, NY. A few embedded
rumbles of thunder have occurred, but think these will be
fairly short-lived. Strong, gusty winds have been verifying
well this evening with several sites along Lake Champlain
reporting frequent 40-45 mph gusts. With a strong low-level jet
progressing across the region and no real changes in 00Z
guidance, still expecting strongest gusts on the lake and across
high peaks with an isolated 50 mph gust not out of the
question. This strengthening low-level jet will cause
downsloping to shadow the Champlain Valley from this broken line
of rain moves east over the next few hours.

For Saturday afternoon, elongated front washes out, with a few
scattered showers possible, mainly along the Green Mountains and
eastern VT. Winds gradually come down mid-morning to Saturday
evening, though still remaining breezy with 20-30 mph gusts out
there. Highs should top out in the 60s to near 70. Overnight
lows will be in the 50s for much of the region. Showers chances
exit overnight Saturday.

For Sunday, a weak shortwave pushes east during the afternoon, but
with mostly westerly to west-northwesterly flow, moisture
convergence and support from low-level warm advection will be
lacking. Thus, expect mostly an increase in clouds Sunday afternoon,
with perhaps an isolated shower across northern NY. Highs in the mid
60s to near 70.


As of 350 AM EDT Saturday...A weak ripple in northwest flow aloft is
expected Sunday night along with some moisture advected in from the
southwest. At the surface weak low pressure will track from the
Great Lakes southeast toward New York city on Monday. It`s just
enough to carry some clouds across the region with a low chance of
showers especially in the south and west portion of the area Sunday
night into Monday morning. Low temps ranging from the mid 40s to mid

The system exits quickly by Monday afternoon with cold advection
taking place leaving partly sunny skies with fair weather stratocu
developing. High temps in the 60s.


As of 350 AM EDT Saturday...The long term period looks mainly fair
and dry with temperatures a little below normal initially Monday
night and Tue but warming above normal by Wed through Fri. Our
weather pattern will be dominated by an amplifying upper level ridge
aloft to our west with a mainly dry northwest to northerly flow over
our region. High pressure at the surface Tue slowly drifts over over
our region then off to our south and east by Thu and Fri allowing
temperatures to moderate. Looking for lows in upper 30s to upper 40s
both Tue and Wed morning with daytime highs in the 60s Tue to lower
70s Wed. By Thu and Fri, looking for highs in the 70s and lows mid
40s to mid 50s.


Through 06Z Sunday...TAF sites are currently VFR with 10-20
knot sustained winds and frequent 20-30 knot gusts out of the
south, which is expected to continue through about 22Z. Periods
of 25 knot sustained winds and a few 35 knot gusts possible. A
few pockets of low-level wind shear remain across NY with the
slower near surface winds for those terminals. Low- level wind
shear will decrease around 08Z- 10Z. Turbulent conditions will
remain along the Champlain Valley. Band of showers will move
east into Northern New York terminals between 07Z and 12Z.
Chances less likely across VT with VCSH at KBTV and KPBG. Still
some SHRA mentioned for KRUT and KMPV around 11Z- 15Z. Periods
of 2000-3000ft ceilings will be possible at times, mainly at
KSLK now through 20Z, and then at KMPV and KRUT generally from
12Z to 18Z.


Sunday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Sunday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
Monday: VFR. Chance SHRA.
Monday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday: VFR. NO SIG WX.


Southerly winds will continue to increase through this afternoon
into this evening as high pressure departs the region. A strong
pressure gradient will begin to develop this evening as a cold
front begins to approach the region which will create gusty
southerly winds ranging from 25 to 35 knots with stronger gusts
to 40 knots possible after midnight. Seas this afternoon will
build from 2-4 feet to 4-6 feet after midnight as the persistent
strong winds help to build the seas. The strongest winds and
highest seas will be observed from Kingsland Bay to St. Albans
Bay. These gusty winds and high seas will continue through
Saturday morning before beginning to slowly diminish and subside
as the gradient begins to relax during the afternoon hours.
Winds will likely not drop below 25 knots until Saturday
evening. Those with outdoor interests along Lake Champlain
tomorrow should take caution if planning to do any boating on
the lake.




NEAR TERM...Haynes
LONG TERM...Sisson

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