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  Tuesday June 27, 2017

 

NWS Area Forecast Discussion


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000
FXUS61 KBTV 240513
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
113 AM EDT Sat Jun 24 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Numerous showers with scattered thunderstorms, some with heavy
rainfall will continue across the area this evening before
tapering off overnight. After a mainly dry Saturday a generally
unsettled weather pattern returns for much of next week with
daily chances for showers and a few storms. Temperatures remain
near seasonal norms for early summer.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 110 AM EDT Saturday...Line of showers and occasional
thunder from Highgate to Plattsburgh to Newcomb, moving east.
Brief period of moderate rainfall with the line, but totals have
been a quarter inch or less of additional rain. Updated pops
this cycle with latest hi- res model data. Blended HRRR and RAP
model reflectivity based pops which capture line of showers and
occassional thunder and move it east during the predawn hours.
Despite atmosphere still quite juiced and brief heavy rainfall
rates, forward propagation of the line keeps heavier rain from
lingering over one location, and flash flood threat remains low.
Drier air on the doorstep of western St. Lawrence County, with
upstream obs showing a westward shift of wind and dewpoints
starting to drop into the upper 60s.

Previous Discussion for Saturday and Saturday Night...
By Saturday into Saturday night a brief period of drying can be
expected for most areas as we lie between shortwave troughs on
the southern edge of a dominant polar trough across central
Canada. Additional weak low level troughing settling south
toward the intl border during the afternoon may spark scattered
showers/isolated storms across the far north, but most of the
day should be rain-free for most areas. Highs similar to today
(upper 70s to lower 80s), though humidity will be more tolerable
as dewpoints lower back into the 50s over time. Lows Saturday
night in the 50s to locally near 60 in milder valley locales.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY/...
As of 359 PM EDT Friday...Broad upper level trof and weak
surface wave moving to the north of the international border
will provide a chance for shower and a few thunderstorms once
again on Sunday. Have increased rain chances over previous
forecast based on the preponderance of available guidance.
Instability is marginal, but sufficient for at least isolated
thunder.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 359 PM EDT Friday...Great Lakes and northeast will
continue to be under the influence of a broad upper level
trough of low pressure through the middle of the week before
more zonal flow returns to the region. Weak shortwaves will
rotate around the trough providing the chance for showers and
storms. Despite the flattening flow at the end of the week, a
weak boundary laid out just north of the area will continue to
provide convective chances at the end of the work week.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Through 00Z Sunday...Mainly MVFR with periods of IFR possible
in scattered showers isld thunderstorms through 06z then fog and
stratus through about 12Z Sat. Showers/isolated storms
gradually end west to east with passage of cold front overnight.
Vsbys generally lower in the 4-6sm range with all the rain
today expect patchy br/fg and MVFR/IFR stratus in the 02-12Z
time frame. After 12Z conds improve to VFR with cumulus
development and the outside chance of a shower or rumble of
thunder across the north Sat afternoon. Winds generally light
and variable but south to southwesterly 6-12 kts KBTV/KMSS
becoming west to northwest 10-15 kts aft 13z Sat.

Outlook...

Saturday Night: VFR. Slight Chance SHRA...Slight Chance TSRA.
Sunday: VFR. Breezy. Likely SHRA...Slight Chance TSRA.
Sunday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA.
Monday: VFR. Chance SHRA...Slight Chance TSRA.
Monday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA.
Tuesday: VFR. Chance SHRA...Slight Chance TSRA.
Tuesday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA.
Wednesday: VFR. Chance SHRA.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMG
NEAR TERM...JMG/Lahiff/Hanson
SHORT TERM...Manning
LONG TERM...Manning
AVIATION...Sisson



 
 
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