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  Tuesday May 23, 2017

 

NWS Area Forecast Discussion


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000
FXUS61 KBTV 192330
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
730 PM EDT Fri May 19 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
As a cold front exits the region tonight, high pressure will build
into the North Country providing sunny skies and seasonal
temperatures through the weekend. Our next system approaches
late Sunday afternoon and evening, with showers developing from
west to east through Sunday night and continuing on Monday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 720 PM EDT Friday...With the decreased cloud cover and
late sun, temperatures are holding and in some areas rising
as day comes to an end. So have made some slight adjustments
there. Overall, things are progressing along towards a quiet
weekend.

Previous Discussion...Surface cold front taking its sweet
time shifting south through the region today, with northern
areas stuck in the 50s while southern Vermont warmed up nicely
into the mid/upper 70s. Since the front never really got down to
where mid-day instability was, the threat for showers has
pretty much ended as drier air works into the region with high
pressure building in from the north. Low/mid-level flow is
blocked per froude numbers off our locally run 4km WRF,
indicating clouds will be slow to diminish this evening, but by
midnight building subsidence aloft should win out with clearing
skies expected thereafter. 925-850mb temps fall to right around
0C and surface winds abate supporting good radiational cooling
with low temps falling into the 30s area-wide, locally lower 40s
in the Champlain Valley. Could see some spots of frost develop,
but winds aloft should remain strong enough to inhibit any
freezing temps where the frost/freeze program as begun.

On Saturday, surface high pressure continues to build southeast
from James Bay into the region, with an upper ridge amplifying
to our west. The result will be sunny skies, a modest northerly
winds, and temps slightly below normal ranging through the 60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 317 PM EDT Friday...Remainder of the weekend remains
mostly dry through Sunday as the aforementioned surface high
remains over the region the the upper ridge builds over the
northeast. Building heights and warming mid-levels support
warmer temps Saturday night than the previous night in the mid
30s to lower 40s, and highs will push into the upper 60s to low
70s on Sunday. Southerly flow increases Sunday afternoon ahead
of our next system digging into the Great Lakes with deep layer
moisture ahead of the attending cold front shifting into
western areas towards sunset, and widespread showers developing
through the night.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 259 PM EDT Friday...Cold front continues to move through
the area bringing with it showers from west to east through
most off the day. Majority of the precipitation looks to be in
the pre-dawn hours with about a 0.25" of QPF through early
Monday morning, while the rest of the day into the evening will
also see another 0.25" and less in the western counties as the
system moves through. The flow behind the front will remain
mostly westerly to southwesterly, so the significant change will
really only look to be increased dew points on Monday before a
return to pre-frontal conditions for Tuesday.

Tuesday sees another brief dry break as weak ridging passes
through the area before giving way to the next system on
Wednesday. A surface low and accompanying 500mb closed low will
dominate the remainder of the long term with more precipitation
and possible thunderstorms late next week.

High temperatures in the long term will range from the mid 60s
to upper 70s, while lows will be in the 40s to 50s.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Through 18Z Saturday...VFR conditions for the entire period with
clearing skies. A very small chance for some overnight fog and
accompanying MVFR or lower conditions for KMPV/KSLK/KMSS, but
right now winds just off the surface seem to be a bit too strong
to support it so have opted to keep it out for now. Winds will
be out of the northwest to northeast at 05-10 knots for the
period.

Outlook...

Saturday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Sunday: VFR. Chance SHRA.
Sunday Night: VFR/MVFR. Likely SHRA.
Monday: VFR/MVFR. Likely SHRA.
Monday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA.
Tuesday: VFR. Slight Chance SHRA.
Tuesday Night: VFR. Slight Chance SHRA.
Wednesday: VFR. Chance SHRA.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Lahiff
NEAR TERM...Lahiff/MV
SHORT TERM...Lahiff
LONG TERM...MV
AVIATION...MV



 
 
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