FXUS61 KBTV 251730
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Burlington VT
130 PM EDT Sat May 25 2019
Today will start of dry with just some high clouds moving in,
but rain showers will develop later this afternoon into this
evening as a warm front pushes through. Showers will be heaviest
in the early overnight hours tonight, when a rumble of thunder
can`t be ruled out as a trough moves through. The line of
showers will clear the area by Sunday morning, but some
scattered showers with a slight chance of thunderstorms will
redevelop Sunday afternoon. Sunday night through Monday night
will be drier as high pressure builds over the area.
Temperatures today and Sunday will be in the 70s, then Monday
and Tuesday will cool down a bit with highs expected in the 60s.
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 1031 AM EDT Saturday...Forecast remains on track as of
late morning. Only change was to adjust hourly temperature and
dewpoint trends into early afternoon per most recent
Previous discussion...Some high clouds are just making their
way into the region this morning from the west, streaming up and
over a strong ridge over the southeastern US. Further west,
rains showers are spreading over Michigan along and ahead of a
warm front currently analyzed over Wisconsin/Lake Michigan. This
warm front will move eastward today, making it to the BTV
forecast area by this afternoon. Increasing isentropic ascent in
tandem with a decent influx of moisture will result in showers
spreading over the forecast area today from west to east. These
showers will start over northern New York between 11 AM and 3
PM, and start over Vermont between 3 PM and 7 PM local time.
Showers will initially be fairly light and spotty in nature due
to lack of deep moisture and deep ascent. However, by this
afternoon in northern NY and by this evening in VT, showers will
trend heavier as a moisture plume surges into the area. Highs
today will be near seasonal values, with temperatures expected
to top out in the upper 60s to low 70s.
Precipitation will continue into the early overnight hours tonight,
becoming a more organized line of convective showers between 10
PM and 4 AM as a trough pushes through. Continuing to note the
presence of some elevated instability tonight as the showers
move through, so will keep a mention of some thunder in the
forecast this evening through around midnight. Once the trough
passes through, the mid and upper-levels will quickly dry out,
leading to diminishing precipitation through the pre-dawn hours
of Sunday. Overnight lows will be in the mid to upper 50s.
There may be some residual spotty showers lingering into Sunday
morning, but by-and-large the area should be dry by daybreak.
The air will feel a little muggy as we remain within the warm
sector of a Canadian low pressure system. Initial low clouds
will lift through the morning, allowing for some breaks of sun
to develop and temperatures to rise into the mid to upper 70s by
early Sunday afternoon. A shortwave aloft with a surface front
will move through the area late morning through early afternoon,
which may trigger the development of some isolated to scattered
convective showers. An isolated thunderstorm or two can`t be
ruled out, but thinking progged instability may be a little
overdone given the expected cloud cover Sunday morning. Forecast
soundings also indicate a very dry layer above 750mb, so any
showers would be light and any thunderstorms would be low-topped
and non-severe. Highs Sunday will be in the mid to upper 70s.
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 337 AM EDT Saturday...Northwest flow aloft will prevail
through much of the period. This will allow for a high pressure
system to build down across the region and bring dry weather to
the entire area Sunday night and Monday. Lows Sunday night will
be in the lower 40s to lower 50s and highs on Memorial Day will
be in the 60s to around 70.
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 337 AM EDT Saturday...The extended period will see a
transition to westerly flow aloft Monday night into Tuesday and
eventually becoming southwest Tuesday night through Thursday.
Before we get into that southwest flow aloft pattern we will
remain dry Monday night and Tuesday morning with showers
increasing in areal coverage Tuesday afternoon and especially
Tuesday night as warm front/deeper moisture moves into the
region. Upper trough over Hudson Bay and upper ridge over the
southeast United States will be the pieces that establish the
southwest flow aloft over the area Wednesday into Thursday.
Warmer 925 mb and 850 mb temperatures advect in during this time
period and we should see dew points climbing into the 50s to
around 60. With highs in the 70s both days we should be able to
generate some instability and thus a chance of showers and
possibly a thunderstorm looks good for Wednesday/Thursday.
Thursday may be the day that could see a little better
organization of showers and storms as deep layer shear increases
over the area and a cold front approaches from the west. Will
keep precipitation chances mainly in the chance category at this
point. Drier and cooler weather moves in for Friday with the
cold front having passed to our east.
.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Through 18Z Sunday...Mix of mainly VFR/MVFR over the next 24
hours as warm front and associated showers/sct thunder move into
the area. Some brief IFR possible later tonight at KSLK. Highest
probabilities of rainfall to occur from 18-06Z after which
coverage tapers off. Highest threat of thunder to occur at
KSLK/KMSS and have mentioned this possibility accordingly. Cold
front then crosses the area during the daylight hours on Sunday,
though with little pcpn. Winds mainly south to southwesterly
from 6-12 kts through 14Z Sunday, trending west to northwesterly
from 8-12 kts and modestly gusty thereafter behind the frontal
Sunday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Memorial Day: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Monday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday: VFR. Chance SHRA.
Tuesday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Likely SHRA.
Wednesday: MVFR. Chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA.
Wednesday Night: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Chance
SHRA, Slight chance TSRA.
Thursday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance SHRA,
Slight chance TSRA.