FXUS61 KBTV 200347
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
1047 PM EST Sun Jan 19 2020
High pressure will build toward the North Country tonight and
linger for several days, leading to an extended period of dry
and quiet weather for the work week. Temperatures will be below
normal to start the week then gradually warm through the week.
The next chance for widespread precipitation will be next
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
As of 1043 PM EST Sunday...Mid-level vorticity max is passing
south and east of VT late this evening. Meanwhile, low clouds
are beginning to dissipate in vicinity of the St. Lawrence
Valley with drying air moving in from sern Ontario. The overall
moisture and vertical motion trends suggest remaining light
snow showers should be winding down between midnight and 4am,
with breaks in the overcast developing during the pre-dawn hours.
We`ll be under north flow between the departing low and high
pressure approaching from west; hence expect cold air will
continue to advect into the North Country overnight. Clouds
will be slow to dissipate, particularly over the higher terrain.
While radiational cooling has been tempered early, still expect
temperatures to drop into the single digits above/below zero by
early Monday morning with better radiational cooling conditions
late. The downward trend in cloud cover will continue through
the day Monday, leading to plentiful sunshine, but it will be a
chilly day with afternoon highs only topping out in the 10-20
range. The pressure gradient will continue to lessen overnight
Monday night as the ridging builds ever closer, and this
combined with mostly clear skies and fresh snow cover will make
for a cold night indeed. Have stayed close to the previous
forecast which went below much of the guidance; this gives lows
in the 0 to -15 range, coldest in the Adirondacks and Northeast
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 330 PM EST Sunday...Tuesday and Tuesday night will
feature quiet weather and cold temperatures on Tuesday with a
large ridge of surface high pressure over the region. Will have
increasing clouds on Tuesday night, and just a chance for a
mountain snow shower with some weak vorticity advection over the
area. High temperatures on Tuesday will range through the teens
and lower twenties. Then overnight minimum temperatures will
dip into the single digits to around 20, coldest east and
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 330 PM EST Sunday...Quiet weather will continue from Wed
through early Saturday. Temperatures will gradually moderate
through the week under zonal mid to upper level flow. Next
chance for significant precipitation will be next weekend.
Global models not in much agreement at this stage, with GFS
bringing system straight overhead and ECMWF keeping the system
to our South. Have lowered pops a bit from NBM to come into
better line with neighboring offices and to account for
possibility that we miss this system entirely. Still plenty of
time for models to come into better agreement.
.AVIATION /04Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Through 00Z Tuesday...MVFR with brief intervals of IFR
conditions still possible at BTV/SLK/RUT with lingering snow
shower activity. Could see another dusting to 0.5" or so from
ongoing -SHSN activity through 08Z, with limited/minor impacts
for aviation ground operations. Will see gradual breaks in the
overcast after midnight, and VFR conditions will prevail at all
terminals by 13z Monday. N-NW winds will generally continue near
10kt this evening, but gradually lessen to around 5kt toward
daybreak, and then continue westerly at 5-10 kt for the balance
of the day on Monday.
Monday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Thursday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Thursday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Friday: VFR. NO SIG WX.