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  Thursday October 19, 2017

 

NWS Area Forecast Discussion


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417
FXUS61 KBTV 170719
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
319 AM EDT Tue Oct 17 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Strong high pressure will bring dry weather through the
remainder of the week. After a chilly start this morning, a
warming trend will commence as winds switch into the south to
southwest this afternoon. Highs in the mid to upper 50s today
will moderate into the 60s to low 70s during the next 5 to 7
days, which will be well-above average for mid-October.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 258 AM EDT Tuesday...Synoptically quiescent conditions
with clear skies and sfc anticyclone bisecting the North Country
early this morning. Light winds in place and will see areas of
frost early this morning, with patchy fog in the valleys of
central/ern VT. A chilly start with sunrise temps generally
25-35F, warmest near Lake Champlain. Currently 36F at BTV at
07Z. Will likely see the first freeze of the fall locally here
at the airport around 6AM.

Sfc ridge slides east of VT by 18Z inducing a S-SW return flow.
Winds increase to 5-10mph across central/ern VT, 10-15 mph in
the Champlain Valley, and locally 15-20 mph with gusts to 30 mph
in the St. Lawrence Valley with stronger p-gradient and valley
channeled flow. Will see temps moderate a bit with just passing
thin mid-upr level clouds. Afternoon highs expected to range
from the low 50s east of the Green Mtns, to the upr 50s in the
Champlain Valley, and generally 55-60F across nrn NY. PoPs NIL.

Quiet conditions persist tonight thru Wednesday. Continued S-SW
gradient flow will mean PBL remains mixed in most locations and
temperatures won`t be as cool. Lows tonight generally mid 40s
for the St. Lawrence and Champlain Valleys, and mid-upr 30s
across the nrn Adirondacks and ern VT. Highs on Wednesday will
moderate into the mid 60s in most valley locations.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
As of 250 AM EDT Tuesday...High pressure at the surface will
continue as an upper level shortwave crosses to our north. Given
the last trends in guidance and the lack of precipitable water
(< 0.8"), I`ve gone ahead and removed mention of any precip
over the northern tier of Vermont. Anticipate some clouds moving
into the North Country and a subtle wind shift from south
westerly winds to westerly winds. There should be some funneling
up the Saint Lawrence and Champlain Valleys so it should be
pretty breezy in the Saint Lawrence Thursday afternoon. I`ve
increased gusts to 20-30mph out of the south just ahead of the
frontal passage. Winds in the higher terrain should be fairly
brisk. 850-700mb winds should be in 45-50kt range. Otherwise it
should be just another warm day in the North Country with temps
around 70 in the valleys and upper 60s elsewhere. We cool down
briefly but not even close to near normal on the backside of the
front as temps overnight fall into the low to mid 40s.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 250 AM EDT Tuesday...Heading into the weekend the high
pressure returns as a broad 1025mb high develops over the
eastern CONUS. The ridge remains firmly in place through the
weekend as anticyclonic flow brings warm air advection into the
North Country. Temps will warm 2-3 degrees each day of the
weekend with low 70s likely for Sunday. That certainly wont help
our departures from normal which as of this morning is a full 9
degrees above normal for the month.

Coming out of the weekend all of the longer ranged solutions
are pointing towards a full latitude trough digging into the
eastern CONUS which will bring showers to the region. Based on
some of the thermal packing along with that front it should be
more of our "normal" fall frontal systems with a 10-15 degree
drop in temps by Wednesday back to near normal.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Through 12Z Wednesday...High pressure in control with dry wx.
Mainly VFR thru the period, with just passing mid-upper level
clouds this afternoon/eve, and possible SCT-BKN040-050 at SLK
tonight with swly flow regime and orographic ascent. Otherwise,
will be watching for brief fog at MPV 08-12Z Tue time frame,
with intervals of LIFR possible. Winds light and variable thru
mid-morning. As sfc ridge axis slides east of TAF locations,
will see developing south to southwest winds...SW 14G24KT at
KMSS and S 10KT at BTV. Winds will remain S-SW throughout tonight.

Outlook...

Wednesday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Thursday: VFR. Breezy. NO SIG WX.
Thursday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Friday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Friday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Saturday: VFR. NO SIG WX.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...Freeze Warning until 8 AM EDT this morning for VTZ002-005-009.
     Frost Advisory until 8 AM EDT this morning for VTZ001.
NY...Freeze Warning until 8 AM EDT this morning for NYZ028-035.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Banacos
NEAR TERM...Banacos
SHORT TERM...Deal
LONG TERM...Deal
AVIATION...Banacos



 
 
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