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  Tuesday May 23, 2017

 

NWS Area Forecast Discussion


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000
FXUS61 KBTV 191722
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
122 PM EDT Fri May 19 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Cold front will push across the area today, scattered rain
showers are expected this morning. Much cooler and drier weather
arrives by midday with some patchy frost possible overnight. A
warm front will produce scattered showers on Sunday evening
with temperatures returning to near normal.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
As of 1032 AM EDT Friday...Surface cold front shifting through
central portions of the forecast area at this time with some
isolated to scattered showers along the boundary. Overall,
showers are light to locally moderate but short-lived so no one
location will see a washout today. Ahead of the front though
across southern Vermont abundant sunshine has allowed for ample
surface heating with temps rising into the low/mid 70s and
dewpoints in the mid 50s creating instability on order of
500-800 J/kg which should be enough to develop showers and
possibly a rumble of thunder as the front shifts southeastward
in the next few hours. Behind the front, temperatures have
fallen sharply into the low/mid 50s, and little recovery
(perhaps a couple of degrees) is expected as clearing won`t
begin until past peak heating.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 525 AM EDT Friday...Drier air and higher pressure will
build into the area tonight, and remain through early Sunday.
Temperatures will be about five degrees below seasonal normals
from tonight through Saturday night. Will have decent
radiational cooling conditions with clearing skies and light
winds, may have some frost in the colder more protected valleys
of the Greens and Dacks. At this time, didn`t note enough
coverage for any advisory. Saturday should feature a lot of
sunshine.

Sunday will start out dry and clear, with increasing clouds and
chance for precipitation during the evening hours with
approaching warm front. Will have warm air advection increase
during the day Sunday, temperatures will max out near seasonal
normals. Most of the day Sunday will remain dry, but increasing
chances for some showers during the evening hours. Best synoptic
forcing will hold off till after 00z.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 440 AM EDT Friday...As surface high pressure slides east
into the Atlantic, a cold front will bring showers into the
North Country from west to east Sunday night through Monday. The
GFS is depicting a southwesterly jet of 20- 30 kts -
potentially producing gusty winds at the surface in the Saint
Lawrence Valley. Southwest to westerly flow will persist behind
the front, meaning the front will have more of an impact on
moisture/dewpoints than on temperatures.

Tuesday is expected to be dry as weak ridging briefly resides
over the area. At this point, GFS and ECMWF continue to differ
on the track of the next surface low pressure system associated
with large 500mb trough/closed low.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Through 18Z Saturday...Cold front has pushed through the CWA.
Northerly winds with gusts up to 20 knots expected through 03Z
before winds weaken to 10 knots or less. A mix of MVFR and VFR
ceilings will continue for the next couple hours before clouds
clear out and all stations go VFR for the remainder of the
period.

Expect clouds to begin to clear in the evening as winds subside
to around 5 kts or less. Under good radiational cooling
conditions, cannot rule out patchy fog development around SLK
and MPV.

Outlook...

Saturday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Sunday: VFR. Slight Chance SHRA.
Sunday Night: VFR/MVFR. Likely SHRA.
Monday: VFR/MVFR. Likely SHRA.
Monday Night: VFR. Slight Chance SHRA.
Tuesday: VFR. Slight Chance SHRA.
Tuesday Night: VFR. Slight Chance SHRA.
Wednesday: VFR. Chance SHRA.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Neiles
NEAR TERM...Lahiff
SHORT TERM...Neiles
LONG TERM...KGM
AVIATION...KGM/MV



 
 
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