275
FXUS61 KBTV 082312
AFDBTV
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
712 PM EDT Mon Sep 8 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
Drier and cooler weather will persist for much of the week as high
pressure becomes well established across the region. Most nights
will feature patchy valley fog and even the chance of some frost in
the cold hollows of the Adirondacks and Northeast Kingdom. The next
widespread rain chance does not look to occur until next week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 146 PM EDT Monday...Our stretch of pleasant fall weather has
gotten off to a nice start today with just some fair weather cumulus
out there. Temperatures are a bit on the cool side, and this trend
will continue as we head into the overnight hours. Diurnal clouds
will dissipate as the sun sets, and winds will lessen as the high
settles directly over the region. These optimal radiational cooling
conditions will allow temperatures to drop into the mid 30s in the
Adirondacks and Northeast Kingdom. The usual cold hollows could
approach freezing, so the frost advisory remains in place for these
areas. Elsewhere, lows should be in the upper 30s to low/mid 40s.
Valley fog is likely to develop overnight, as well.
Tuesday and Tuesday night will be quite similar to today/tonight,
just a few degrees warmer both periods. Winds will trend more toward
the south, but will still remain light. Another round of patchy
valley fog is likely, but frost shouldn`t be quite as widespread as
tonight, really confined to those locally cold prone spots.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 146 PM EDT Monday...High pressure will shift a bit eastward for
mid week, though it will still have a firm hold on our region. As a
result, Wednesday will once again feature ample sunshine. Highs will
be a few degrees warmer than Tuesday, generally in the mid to upper
70s. Increasing south flow will serve to keep Wednesday night warmer
than the previous couple, and lows should remain in the 40s to
around 50F with no frost expected.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 146 PM EDT Monday...The extended period of dry weather will
continue through the end of the week as high pressure remains the
dominant weather feature across the region. A weak and moisture
starved cold front will push southward across the region on
Thursday, bringing a wind shift and some increased cloud cover.
Winds will likely be breezy on Thursday as winds become northerly,
with gusts 15 to 20 mph for most locations and close to 25 mph in
the Champlain Valley. A reinforcing shot of cold and dry air will
push into the region behind this feature, bringing sharply colder
temperatures and additional chances for frost across the Adirondacks
and Northeast Kingdom with lows in the 30s and 40s elsewhere. High
temperatures will generally be in the 60s to near 70s for Friday,
warming a few degrees heading into the weekend. A few chances for
showers will be possible this weekend in an otherwise dry pattern,
but there is still plenty of uncertainty as to the evolution of this
feature.
&&
.AVIATION /23Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Through 00Z Wednesday...Main focus of this TAF package is the
potential for dense valley fog tonight under high pressure,
clear skies, and plummeting temperatures. Would continue to say
SLK and MPV are the most likely spots for IFR conditions around
06Z-13Z in both vis and ceiling. Have also added in IFR
conditions at EFK in the form of a TEMPO group 10Z-12Z due to
increasing confidence of intermittent and patchy fog there. RUT
may also see some brief, patchy fog/low stratus, but confidence
is not high enough at this time to include more than a FEW 200
foot layer overnight with light drainage wind likely consistent
there. All sites are expected to have light and variable or calm
winds overnight, largely terrain driven if at all, then winds
increase out of the south/southeast tomorrow, but remaining
under 10 knots. Widespread VFR anticipated 14Z onward.
Outlook...
Tuesday Night: VFR. Patchy BR.
Wednesday: VFR. Patchy BR.
Wednesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Thursday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Thursday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Friday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Friday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Saturday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...Frost Advisory from 2 AM to 8 AM EDT Tuesday for VTZ004.
NY...Frost Advisory from 2 AM to 8 AM EDT Tuesday for NYZ029>031-
034.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Hastings
NEAR TERM...Hastings
SHORT TERM...Hastings
LONG TERM...Kremer
AVIATION...Storm
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