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  Saturday May 26, 2018

 

NWS Area Forecast Discussion


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000
FXUS61 KBTV 230737
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
337 AM EDT Wed May 23 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak cold front will cross the area today with little fanfare
other than a few isolated showers or a stray storm across
eastern counties. Otherwise high pressure will provide fair and
seasonably warm temperatures through Friday. More uncertainty
arrives by the upcoming weekend as an increase in moisture and a
cold front sinking southward from Canada may lead to a period
or two of showers, especially Saturday and Saturday night.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 337 AM EDT Wednesday...After areas of patchy morning fog
and low clouds burn off, a much better day is on tap for our
area as skies trend partly sunny under drying northwesterly
winds. A weak cold front will be dropping southward through the
area by this afternoon, behind which those winds could gust into
the 15 to 20 mph range in the 100-700 pm time frame. Some weak
instability and meager moisture convergence could also spark an
isolated shower or storm across mainly eastern and northeastern
VT during this time period as the front passes, but a warm layer
near 600 mb should inhibit any convective cells from attaining
overly robust levels. High temperatures will respond nicely to
the increase in overall sunshine, topping out in the lower to
mid 70s north and mid to upper 70s south which agrees nicely
with modelled 18-21Z 925 mb thermal profiles.

Then trending mainly clear over time tonight as high pressure
builds east from the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley. I stuck close
to a multi-model bias-corrected blend for low temperatures
offering values in the lower and mid 40s in the broader valleys
and from 35 to 40 across Green and Adirondack Mountain
communities with some slight variability. Winds light.

By Thursday the surface high builds atop and just east of our region
by afternoon as light north/northwesterly flow trends south to
southwesterly over time. High temperatures cool slightly (3-5
degrees) from today`s values, but all and all another outstanding
day is on tap with nil pops under mostly sunny skies.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT/...
As of 245 PM EDT Tuesday...Large ridge of surface high pressure
will be over the region for Thursday and Thursday night. Dry
weather with warmer than normal temperatures can be expected.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 300 PM EDT Tuesday...More active weather will return for
the upcoming weekend after one more dry day on Friday. Surface
high pressure will slide eastward Friday, and warm southerly
return flow will bump temps up into the upper 70s and lower 80s.
Model guidance is still indicating that Saturday will be the
wetter of the two weekend days, but can`t say that Sunday will
be completely dry just yet. A cold front will drop south across
our area on Saturday, widespread rain showers are expected,
during the morning across our Northern zones and afternoon
across our Southern zones. Then the front will stall out to our
South just off the coast of New York and remain there into early
next week. With this boundary to our South, it`s tough to rule
out precipitation in the Sunday through Tuesday timeframe as
this front may drift North or South during this time period.
With clouds and precipitation, temperatures will trend cooler
than seasonal normals.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Through 06Z Thursday...Scattered showers to end through 12Z,
though widespread br/fg and accompanying low cigs ranging from
LIFR to MVFR expected in this time frame. Winds light. After 12Z
all terminals lift to VFR as winds veer to northwesterly in the
14-18Z time frame, trending occasionally gusty from 15-20 kt by
afternoon as a weak cold front drops through the area. An
isolated shower or storm will be possible across eastern and
northern VT during this period, but paucity of coverage warrants
omission from the forecast at this point. After 00Z VFR
continues as northwesterly flow abates to light.

Outlook...

Thursday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Thursday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Friday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
Friday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA.
Saturday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA.
Saturday Night: Mainly IFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance
SHRA.
Sunday: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Chance SHRA.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMG
NEAR TERM...JMG
SHORT TERM...Neiles
LONG TERM...Neiles
AVIATION...JMG



 
 
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