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  Thursday August 17, 2017

 

NWS Area Forecast Discussion


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FXUS61 KBTV 130956
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
556 AM EDT Sun Aug 13 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Isolated to scattered showers are expected across the far
northern tiers of New York and Vermont through mid morning with
drier air working into the region this afternoon. High pressure
responsible for the drier air will continue to influence our
weather tonight and Monday with dry weather continuing. High
temperatures today will be a few degrees cooler than
yesterday...but rebound back to normal temperatures for this
time of year on Monday. Overall much of next week will remain on
the dry side.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 556 AM EDT Sunday...Upper trough is moving quickly across
southern Quebec Province early this morning and is enhancing
scattered showers across southern Quebec the northern tiers of
New York and Vermont. This activity will continue moving
eastward through the early morning hours and with upper trough
being fairly progressive...the showers will be ending by mid-
morning across northern New York and by midday across northern
Vermont. The rest of the area will remain dry today. There was
fog over north central and northeast Vermont early this
morning...but as mixing takes places the areal coverage is
eroding and most will be going just after sunrise. Highs will
generally be in the 70s today with better chances for sun during
the afternoon hours. High pressure builds in tonight and
persist over the area on Monday. No precipitation is expected in
either of these periods. Flow aloft turns back to the southwest
on Monday and we get right back into a warm air advection
pattern...which will result in high temperatures generally in
the mid 70s to lower 80s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 323 AM EDT Sunday...Overall little change from previous
forecast thinking for the period with high pressure largely
dominating at the surface while a closed upper level low over
James Bay Monday night slowly tracks southeastward to the Gulf
of St. Lawrence by Wednesday morning. Still looks like a decent
chance for scattered showers Tuesday afternoon, mainly east of
the Green Mountains as weak shortwave energy on the southern
periphery of the upper low tracks through the region.
Instability is meager so think the thunder threat is rather low
and not worth mentioning. Any afternoon and early evening
showers should dissipate going into Tuesday night as a cooler
and drier northwest flow develops. Temps will be seasonal with
lows mainly in the 50s and highs upper 70s to low 80s.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 323 AM EDT Sunday...Dry conditions prevail for Wednesday
and Wednesday night as the aforementioned upper low shifts
offshore into the Canadian maritimes and an upper ridge builds
over the eastern Great Lakes. For Thursday onward trends amongst
medium/long range guidance over the past 2 days has been
towards more unsettled conditions with a focus for a more
widespread rainfall Thursday night into Friday. Upper ridge to
our west Thursday morning breaks down into westerly flow as
another upper trough/low begins to carve out over the northern
plains and Canadian prairies Thursday afternoon/evening.
Developing surface low pressure over the Great Lakes will look
to push a warm front into the northeast Thursday night with the
potential for moderate rainfall through Friday. Questionable
forecast for Saturday as rain chances will largely hinge on
where the upper low is located, which models don`t really agree
on at this point. Will carry a chance for now.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Through 06Z Monday...Overall looking at VFR conditions through
much of the period. There may be some fog at KMPV through 12z
which would result in IFR to LIFR conditions at times. A few
showers may move across the far northern tiers of New York and
Vermont this morning...but should not have any impact on
visibilities. Winds early this morning will become more west
with time and eventually northwest this afternoon...but speeds
will generally be 10 knots or less.

Outlook...

Monday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Monday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday: VFR. Slight Chance SHRA.
Tuesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Thursday: VFR. Chance SHRA.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Evenson
NEAR TERM...Evenson
SHORT TERM...Lahiff
LONG TERM...Lahiff
AVIATION...Evenson



 
 
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