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  Thursday October 19, 2017


NWS Area Forecast Discussion

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FXUS61 KBTV 151349

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
949 AM EDT Sun Oct 15 2017

Low pressure across the northern Great Lakes region early this
morning will track across southeastern Ontario and southern
Quebec later today. An associated warm front, bringing light
rain to the St. Lawrence Valley early this morning, will lift
north of the international border resulting in breezy and very
warm conditions for the balance of the day. High temperatures in
the 70s...15 to 20 degrees above normal for mid-October... are
expected this afternoon. Late this afternoon into this evening,
a trailing cold front will bring a line of showers with a few
embedded thunderstorms possible, especially across northern New
York. The showers and possible thunderstorms may locally enhance
wind gusts for a brief period this evening, with wind gusts in
excess of 40 to 45 mph possible. Cooler and drier weather is
expected for Monday, and dry conditions with moderating
temperatures for the mid-week period.


As of 949 AM EDT Sunday...Overall forecast in good shape. Just
a few lingering showers near the Canadian Border for the next
hour or two...but then should be dry until later this afternoon
when line of showers moves into northern New York. Still
expecting winds to continue strengthening over the area as the
day wears on with winds reaching advisory criteria over parts of
northern New York later today and tonight. Low clouds trapped
below inversion this morning over parts of the area keeping
temperatures down just a bit while parts of southern Vermont
enjoy mostly clear skies. Will keep highs in the 70s for now and
will have to see if low level moisture is able to mix
out...which we think will occur for most areas. Tweaked sky
grids to match current conditions...otherwise no real big
changes needed at this time.

Previous Discussion...
Forecast remains on track. Have increased low clouds across
Vermont thru 15-16Z based on upstream cloud trends and rapid
increase in low-level southerly PBL winds. Warm front has pushed
north of the St. Lawrence Valley, and associated shower
activity has moved into srn Quebec. Overnight, showers produced
0.13" rainfall at KMSS. With the front north of the border, will
see dry conditions in the warm sector across the North Country
for the balance of the daylight hrs today.

Despite this, appears sunshine will be rather limited today
with widespread low stratus in place across NJ/ern PA/srn NY,
which will lift nwd with increasing southerly gradient flow. Air
mass is still quite warm (+13 to +14C) at 850mb, and starting
in the upr 50s to low 60s early this AM. Thinking mainly mid-70s
for highs across the area. A few breaks in the overcast could
result in upper 70s in spots, but not optimistic given upstream
cloud trends.

Continued the Wind Advisory for the Saint Lawrence Valley from
5pm Sunday to 2am Monday and for most of the Northern
Adirondacks from 8pm Sunday to 2am Monday morning. Greater cloud
cover may lessen low-level downward mixing potl a bit, but
still looking at gusts 40-45 mph as a general rule across the
advisory area, with a few higher gusts. Also close to 40 mph
across the Champlain Islands and surrounding nrn Champlain
Valley late this afternoon and evening. Included mention of
these gusts in the morning HWO issuance. Also, a Lake Wind
Advisory has been posted for winds 25-35kts sustained on Lake
Champlain by this afternoon.

In terms of precipitation, good consistency with low-topped
convective line developing along pre-frontal trough across nrn
NY between 21-23Z, through the Champlain Valley 23-01Z, and then
exiting east of VT quickly by 03Z. SBCAPE up to 250 J/kg, mainly
across nrn NY, so kept the slight chance of an embedded tstm.
The convection may induce better sfc wind gusts, and peak winds
may occur in vicinity of this convective line this evening, and
will need to be monitored as it tracks from west to east across
the region.

Westerly wind shift expected overnight, with secondary frontal
passage around 06Z. May see a few lingering orographic induced
showers thru the pre-dawn hrs, with temps falling back to the
low-mid 40s by daybreak Monday.


As of 429 AM EDT Sunday...Monday brings a stark change from the
weekend, as temperatures will truly feel fall like as the cold
front pushes east of the CWA. 925mb temperatures of 19-20C will
see dramatic drops to 1-2C by Monday morning. This will be
coupled with brisk NW winds of 10-25mph which will feel like a
raw welcome to the new week as high temps will only be in the
upper 40s with some valley locations in the low 50s. Winds will
weaken throughout the day as a surface ridge begins to build
into the area.

Monday night looks to be the coldest night of the season so far
as clearing skies will temperatures drop to mid to low 30s in
the valleys and 20s across the rest of the area. Tuesday sees
the upper trough pass and not much more than some increased
clouds along the international border with it. Temps begin to
rebound with highs in the mid to upper 50s for the region.


As of 429 AM EDT Sunday...What can I say about the long term.
High pressure dominates the region as we see dry and quiet
conditions throughout the period. A few upper lows try to break
the ridge to the north on Wed and Fri, but again beyond some
cloud cover along the international border and possibly some
virga, not much else is expected. Look for highs to trend back
into the upper 60s by the end of the week and lows in the 40s.


Through 12Z Monday...Mainly MVFR/VFR ceilings through much of
the period. Will see MVFR ceilings at times with low stratus at
BTV/MPV through 15/16Z. Better mixing by early afternoon may
allow ceilings to lift back to VFR across VT. Wind gusts
25-35kts from the south expected this afternoon into early this
evening, and locally SW 40kt gusts at KMSS possible around 21Z
today. Will see a gusty line of rain showers track W-E across
the North Country from 21Z Sunday to 03Z Monday. An embedded
tstm is possible, mainly across nrn NY 21-00Z. A westerly wind
shift is expected in the wake of these showers and possible
tstms this evening.


Monday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Monday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday: VFR. Breezy. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Thursday: VFR. Breezy. NO SIG WX.


Lake Wind Advisory posted for today into tonight. Will see south
winds ramp up quickly this morning, reaching 15-25 kts by late
morning, and then 25-35kt range for the afternoon and early
evening hrs. Waves will build to 3-5ft, highest across the
northern end of the broad lake and south of the Route 2 causeway
near Grand Isle/South Hero.


NY...Wind Advisory from 5 PM this afternoon to 2 AM EDT Monday for
     Wind Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 2 AM EDT Monday for


NEAR TERM...Banacos/Evenson
SHORT TERM...Verasamy
LONG TERM...Verasamy

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