FXUS61 KBTV 230523
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
123 AM EDT Wed May 23 2018
Showers associated with weak low pressure moving across the region
will end this evening with high pressure building in after midnight.
A cold front will cross the area Wednesday with a few additional
showers or perhaps an isolated thunderstorm across northern
counties. Behind this front, fair and seasonably warm weather is
expected through the remainder of the work week.
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON/...
As of 1040 PM EDT Tuesday...Have made some minor adjustments to
PoPs to account for ongoing periods of light rain -- expected
to continue thru 0430Z or so before exiting east of Vermont. The
850mb vort across central NY at 02Z will slide ewd across the
region next several hrs. Sfc cold front moving sewd across nrn
NY and VT will also enhance central/ern VT next 1-2 hrs, before
drying NW flow develops after midnight with decreasing PoPs from
NW-SE. Not expecting any strong PBL flow, and as skies clear,
anticipate low stratus and/or fog rapidly developing with wet
soil conditions. Skies are starting to clear at KMSS, and vsby
has dropped below 1SM. Anticipate that trend will continue as
clearing of higher cloud cover progresses to the south and east.
Temperatures will generally hold in the 50s, with a few upper
40s for pre-dawn lows across nern VT and within the nrn
Previous Discussion...Weak surface low pressure located over
the eastern Great Lakes this afternoon will continue to provide
the North Country with periods of showers this afternoon and
evening before shifting east. Main batch of precipitation is
pushing through central and eastern area currently, and expect
there to be a brief break later this afternoon into the early
evening before additional showers develop around sunset across
northern New York and track eastward through Vermont through
midnight. After midnight, high pressure noses into the area with
gradual clearing expected by sunrise. With mild overnight temps
in the 50s, mainly light winds and today`s rainfall, areas of
fog are a good bet, especially in the climo favored river
For Wednesday, mainly dry conditions are expected with mostly
clear skies in the morning giving way to increasing cumulus
clouds across central and northern areas as a well defined cold
front drops southward through the region. As mentioned by
previous forecasts, we`ll be on the back side of this front and
parent upper trough with the best moisture and forcing generally
off to our northeast. Guidance continues to hint at some
isolated to widely scattered shower activity developing during
peak heating mainly across northern Vermont, with some weak
instability around supporting the idea of perhaps an isolated
thunderstorm as well. Continued this idea from previous
forecasts with any activity dissipating rapidly with the loss of
insolational heating after sunset. In addition, steep low level
lapse rates will promote good mixing from aloft with winds
becoming brisk out of the northwest at 15-25 mph in the
afternoon. After a normal to slightly cool Tuesday, Wednesdays
highs will be back above normal in the mid/upper 70s.
A clear, quiet and cool night is on tap for Wednesday night
with high pressure centering over the region. Low confidence on
fog overnight despite the clearing skies as boundary level winds
look strong enough to inhibit development. Lows will run mainly
in the 40s, with a few spot upper 30s possible in the colder
hollows of the Adirondacks and northeast Vermont.
.SHORT TERM /2 PM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
As of 245 PM EDT Tuesday...Large ridge of surface high pressure
will be over the region for Thursday and Thursday night. Dry
weather with warmer than normal temperatures can be expected.
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 300 PM EDT Tuesday...More active weather will return for
the upcoming weekend after one more dry day on Friday. Surface
high pressure will slide eastward Friday, and warm southerly
return flow will bump temps up into the upper 70s and lower 80s.
Model guidance is still indicating that Saturday will be the
wetter of the two weekend days, but can`t say that Sunday will
be completely dry just yet. A cold front will drop south across
our area on Saturday, widespread rain showers are expected,
during the morning across our Northern zones and afternoon
across our Southern zones. Then the front will stall out to our
South just off the coast of New York and remain there into early
next week. With this boundary to our South, it`s tough to rule
out precipitation in the Sunday through Tuesday timeframe as
this front may drift North or South during this time period.
With clouds and precipitation, temperatures will trend cooler
than seasonal normals.
.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Through 06Z Thursday...Scattered showers to end through 12Z,
though widespread br/fg and accompanying low cigs ranging from
LIFR to MVFR expected in this time frame. Winds light. After 12Z
all terminals lift to VFR as winds veer to northwesterly in the
14-18Z time frame, trending occasionally gusty from 15-20 kt by
afternoon as a weak cold front drops through the area. An
isolated shower or storm will be possible across eastern and
northern VT during this period, but paucity of coverage warrants
omission from the forecast at this point. After 00Z VFR
continues as northwesterly flow abates to light.
Thursday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Thursday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Friday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
Friday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA.
Saturday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA.
Saturday Night: Mainly IFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance
Sunday: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Chance SHRA.