706
FXUS61 KBTV 231735
AFDBTV
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
135 PM EDT Thu Oct 23 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
A cooler and showery pattern will persist into the weekend, though
additional precipitation totals will be mostly light. Lake effect
showers will enhance the precipitation at times across parts of
northern New York. High elevation snow showers will occur,
supporting light snow accumulations on mountain summits. Conditions
will trend drier heading into early next week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 243 AM EDT Thursday...A large upper level low is slowly
building into the region, bringing a cooler and showery pattern.
After the passage of an embedded shortwave today, southwesterly flow
has initiated impressive lake effect showers off Lake Ontario and
into ST. Lawrence County. The most favored areas could see close to
an inch of rain. Elsewhere, precipitation totals will be relatively
light. Temperatures at the highest summits in the Adirondacks have
fallen below freezing and they will likely remain there through this
period. As colder air gradually works its way into the region
heading into Friday, freezing levels will drop and the snow levels
will drop into the Green Mountains and should reach some of the mid
slopes. A few flakes are possible in some of the Adirondack towns
Friday morning, but no accumulations are expected there. The showers
look to be enhanced for a period of time on Friday as another
shortwave pivots through, but the coverage should still be scattered
in most places, outside the favored upslope areas where more
continuous showers are possible.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
As of 243 AM EDT Thursday...Atmospheric moisture will become much
more shallow for Saturday, with it looking to drop out of the snow
growth zone for a period of time. Combined with weaker forcing, the
precipitation will likely become more of a mist/drizzle and it will
become more restricted to the mountains and upslope areas. However,
the broad cyclonic flow will keep clouds around for most areas,
though there could be enough downsloping at times for a few breaks
of sun in the valleys, particularly the lower Connecticut.
Temperatures will remain cool, with highs in the 40s and low 50s.
With temperatures remaining below freezing at the summits, it will
likley turn into a situation with a lot more riming than actual
snow.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 133 PM EDT Thursday...Cutoff upper level low pressure is
expected to linger into early next week as high pressure in
southwestern Quebec steers northeasterly winds into the forecast
area. This means below average temperatures for most of next week as
highs reach only into the 40s and lower 50s with lows falling into
the 20s to mid 30s, moderating slightly mid and late week. Plentiful
clouds and isolated to scattered terrain induced showers are also
anticipated Sunday and possibly Monday with the cutoff low more
directly overhead.
Most likely clearing of skies would be Monday night as most
deterministic models show high pressure nosing in from Canada. From
there, model agreement begins to fall apart towards midweek. Some
guidance shows low pressure bringing precipitation back into our
area late week, though models depict very different tracks, speeds,
and orientations for this system, so confidence remains on the lower
side. Highest chance for measurable precipitation looks to be
Thursday night or later.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Through 18Z Friday...A line of moisture, showers, and low
ceilings is moving through the forecast area this afternoon
from west to east. Ceilings are around 1900-5500 feet above
ground level with lowest cigs across northern New York where
line has already crossed through. Elsewhere, most sites are
reporting a SCT layer of 3000-4000 feet. We anticipate MVFR
ceilings to linger in northern New York until around 22Z
Thursday - 00Z Friday, then lift back to VFR levels. Elsewhere
could have a period of MVFR ceilings on and off 00Z Friday
onwards as moisture settles into the area behind the line of
showers, but at most this should be on and off, scattering and
lifting frequently as we sit in cyclonic flow but in between
distinct shortwaves. Another shortwave should come through
tomorrow afternoon, returning scattered showers in upslope
areas. Winds out of the southwest will gust to about 15-25 knots
before falling below 10 knots around 20Z-21Z Thursday, becoming
light and variable in some spots overnight tonight and into
tomorrow.
Outlook...
Friday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA.
Saturday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
Saturday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance
SHRA.
Sunday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance SHRA.
Sunday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. NO SIG WX.
Monday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. NO SIG WX.
Monday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. NO SIG WX.
&&
.EQUIPMENT...
The TYX radar is down until further notice after a hardware
failure occurred. Replacement parts have been ordered and will
be installed. There is no ETA on its return to service.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Myskowski
NEAR TERM...Myskowski
SHORT TERM...Myskowski
LONG TERM...Storm
AVIATION...Storm
EQUIPMENT...BTV
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