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  Thursday October 19, 2017

 

NWS Area Forecast Discussion


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524
FXUS61 KBTV 170652
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
252 AM EDT Tue Oct 17 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Canadian high pressure will build into the area tonight with
slowly clearing skies and chilly temperatures with areas of
frost expected. High pressure remains atop the region for the
remainder of the week with fair weather expected along with mild
temperatures.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 948 PM EDT Monday...Gradual clearing trend from late this
afternoon and earlier this evening continues as planned. Just
updated grids but no changes needed.

Aftn discussion...A mainly cloudy and cool day
generally panned out as expected as temperatures have held
nearly steady in the 40s under blustery, though gradually
diminishing northwesterly flow. A few sprinkles and summit level
freezing drizzle has persisted this afternoon, but with
thinning moisture profiles this should wane and end through the
evening hours. High pressure will continue to build into the
region tonight with skies clearing over time as winds abate to
light. This will set the stage for seasonably chilly lows in the
25 to 35 degree range with customary variability and
frost/freeze headlines continue for the immediate Champlain
Valley where the local frost/freeze program remains in place.

By Tuesday into Tuesday night high pressure will build atop and
east of the area with mainly clear/sunny skies expected outside
a few passing high clouds. Winds trend southerly and become a
bit gusty from the Champlain Valley west by afternoon as high
temperatures range through the 50s, staying milder and only
falling into the 35 to 45 degree range overnight, coldest east.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
As of 250 AM EDT Tuesday...High pressure at the surface will
continue as an upper level shortwave crosses to our north. Given
the last trends in guidance and the lack of precipitable water
(< 0.8"), I`ve gone ahead and removed mention of any precip
over the northern tier of Vermont. Anticipate some clouds moving
into the North Country and a subtle wind shift from south
westerly winds to westerly winds. There should be some funneling
up the Saint Lawrence and Champlain Valleys so it should be
pretty breezy in the Saint Lawrence Thursday afternoon. I`ve
increased gusts to 20-30mph out of the south just ahead of the
frontal passage. Winds in the higher terrain should be fairly
brisk. 850-700mb winds should be in 45-50kt range. Otherwise it
should be just another warm day in the North Country with temps
around 70 in the valleys and upper 60s elsewhere. We cool down
briefly but not even close to near normal on the backside of the
front as temps overnight fall into the low to mid 40s.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 250 AM EDT Tuesday...Heading into the weekend the high
pressure returns as a broad 1025mb high develops over the
eastern CONUS. The ridge remains firmly in place through the
weekend as anticyclonic flow brings warm air advection into the
North Country. Temps will warm 2-3 degrees each day of the
weekend with low 70s likely for Sunday. That certainly wont help
our departures from normal which as of this morning is a full 9
degrees above normal for the month.

Coming out of the weekend all of the longer ranged solutions
are pointing towards a full latitude trough digging into the
eastern CONUS which will bring showers to the region. Based on
some of the thermal packing along with that front it should be
more of our "normal" fall frontal systems with a 10-15 degree
drop in temps by Wednesday back to near normal.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Through 00Z Wednesday...A mix of BKN/OVC MVFR/VFR cigs will
trend mainly SKC from 06Z Tuesday onward as high pressure builds
into the region. Highest confidence of MVFR cigs at
KSLK/KMPV/KRUT terminals through 02-03Z Tue then clearing...some
Hi/Mid clouds Tue but vfr.

Winds trending light overnight. After 12Z Tuesday flow trends
southerly and slowly increases, especially from the Champlain
Valley west.

Outlook...

Tuesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Thursday: VFR. Breezy. NO SIG WX.
Thursday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Friday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Friday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Saturday: VFR. NO SIG WX.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...Freeze Warning until 8 AM EDT this morning for VTZ002-005-009.
     Frost Advisory until 8 AM EDT this morning for VTZ001.
NY...Freeze Warning until 8 AM EDT this morning for NYZ028-035.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMG
NEAR TERM...JMG/SLW
SHORT TERM...Deal
LONG TERM...Deal
AVIATION...JMG/SLW



 
 
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