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Current conditions from King Hill
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  Wednesday December 13, 2017

 

NWS Area Forecast Discussion


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FXUS61 KBTV 100551
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
1251 AM EST Sun Dec 10 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
The North Country will be in between systems tonight with an
upper trough to our west and coastal low pressure to our east.
Later this afternoon and tonight, snowfall associated with the
coastal low will work into eastern portions of the forecast
area, with some light accumulations expected through the night.
Late tonight into Sunday the trough to our west will bring some
scattered snow showers to the region before a more widespread
light snow event is expected Monday night into Wednesday morning
as a low pressure system moves down from Canada.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 1250 AM EST Sunday...Still getting light snow across all
but northwest Vermont early this morning. Reduced visibilities
exist across southern and eastern Vermont and will continue the
winter weather advisory for Rutland...Windsor... and Orange
counties through 300 am. Precipitation should decrease in
intensity and areal coverage after 300 am to allow for the
advisory to come to an end. At the same time upstream trough
will be moving east toward northern New York and should see
precipitation chances slowly begin to increase.

Previous Discussion...
For Sunday, coastal low pressure exits east of the region while
a digging upper trough over the Ohio Valley tonight lifts
northeastward into the New England states. A brisk westerly flow
develops by mid-day with winds in the 10-15mph range and gusts
up to 20 mph, especially across portions of northern New York.
Southwesterly flow combined with some weak elevated instability
will once again produce periods of lake effect snow showers in
the lee of Lake Ontario through the day, mainly affecting the
Adirondacks, but a modest 850mb jet of 25-35kts should be enough
to transport some activity into portions of northern Vermont,
especially in the northern mountains around Jay Peak. Through
Sunday night expect to see a solid 1-3" across southern St.
Lawrence and Franklin counties as well as western portions of
Clinton and Essex counties in New York. Could see localized
amounts of 3-5" in the vicinity of Star Lake and Wanakena.
Eastward across the northern Greens a general dusting to 2" is
expected, with localized amounts up to 4" near Jay Peak. Near
normal temps are forecast for Sunday and Sunday night with highs
in the upper 20s to mid 30s, and lows in the teens.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
As of 245 PM EST Saturday...Expect a fairly active and cold
pattern to persist through much of next week as the eastern
CONUS remains under the influence of a broad upper trough. Waves
of low pressure will rotate around the trough, keeping the
threat of snow showers in the forecast just about each day. The
steadiest snow will occur on Tuesday as a weak coastal low
develops in conjunction with the digging upper shortwave/clipper
low cross the Great Lakes. Otherwise, expect mostly scattered
snow showers through the week. Temperatures will remain cold
through the period as well, with the coldest readings coming
Wednesday through Thursday. Highs will only be in the teens
these days, while lows will be in the single digits; above zero
in the valleys and below zero in the mountains. There will be
some improvement late in the week as the mid-week wave moves
east, placing the region in southwest flow.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 245 PM EST Saturday...Expect a fairly active and cold
pattern to persist through much of next week as the eastern
CONUS remains under the influence of a broad upper trough. Waves
of low pressure will rotate around the trough, keeping the
threat of snow showers in the forecast just about each day. The
steadiest snow will occur on Tuesday as a weak coastal low
develops in conjunction with the digging upper shortwave/clipper
low cross the Great Lakes. Otherwise, expect mostly scattered
snow showers through the week. Temperatures will remain cold
through the period as well, with the coldest readings coming
Wednesday through Thursday. Highs will only be in the teens
these days, while lows will be in the single digits; above zero
in the valleys and below zero in the mountains. There will be
some improvement late in the week as the mid-week wave moves
east, placing the region in southwest flow.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Through 06Z Monday...Light snow continues at KRUT and KMPV with
MVFR/IFR conditions expected through about 10z before conditions
improve into the VFR category as the light snow moves east of
the area. Over the remainder of the area VFR conditions will
exist...but after 12z a trough of low pressure will move into
the region and produce MVFR/VFR ceilings and visibilities as
scattered to numerous snow showers move from west to east across
the region. Watch for a wind shift around midday to the west
with the passage of a cold front.

Outlook...

Sunday Night: VFR. Chance SHSN.
Monday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. NO SIG WX.
Monday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Likely SN.
Tuesday: Mainly MVFR, with areas IFR possible. Likely SN.
Tuesday Night: Mainly MVFR, with areas IFR possible. Chance SHSN,
Likely SN.
Wednesday: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Chance SHSN.
Wednesday Night: Mainly MVFR, with local VFR possible. Chance
SHSN.
Thursday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. NO SIG WX.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...Winter Weather Advisory until 3 AM EST early this morning for
     VTZ010-012-019.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Lahiff
NEAR TERM...Evenson/Lahiff
SHORT TERM...Hastings
LONG TERM...Hastings
AVIATION...Evenson



 
 
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