Current conditions from King Hill
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  Tuesday May 23, 2017


NWS Area Forecast Discussion

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FXUS61 KBTV 211055

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
655 AM EDT Sun May 21 2017

Ridge of high pressure aloft will crest over the North Country
today providing dry conditions for most of the day. Clouds will
increase throughout the day ahead of a warm front approaching
from the southwest. This warm front will bring overcast skies
and periods of rain tonight into Monday morning. Rainfall
amounts between one-quarter and one-half inch are generally
expected across the North Country. Dry conditions return on
Tuesday with a brief period of surface high pressure, before a
deepening longwave trough aloft approaches for the mid-week.


As of 655 AM EDT Sunday...Warm air advection evident in hourly
temperature trends across the St Lawrence Valley and western
Adirondacks. This WAA will spread east, quickly warming
temperatures across the North Country. Mid and high level clouds
continue to spread across the region in prevalent southerly
flow ahead of approaching low pressure and associated front.
500mb ridge will crest over the North Country this afternoon,
keeping the region dry outside of a couple sprinkles. With 925mb
temperatures reaching the 11C-13C range and persistent
southerly flow, expect max temperatures to reach the 60s to low
70s today. Also channeling up the St Lawrence and Champlain
valleys will likely lead to some mildly gusty wind.

Tonight into early Monday will have bulk of precip as we expect
rain showers to move eastward in the St Lawrence Valley around
00Z, reaching the Champlain Valley before 06Z. Mild min
temperatures Monday morning with overcast skies and southerly
flow, ranging from 40s to mid 50s.

As surface ridge slides into the Atlantic and low pressure over
Ontario approaches, pressure gradient will increase with
increasing winds and gusts, especially early Monday. Showers
continue Monday as vorticity grazes NW portions of the forecast
area. Clouds persist with Monday high temperatures ranging from
the 50s to mid 60s. Storm total QPF continue to be between
0.25-0.5 inch.


As of 325 AM EDT Sunday...Broad southwesterly upper level flow
across the region during the short term period with high
pressure giving way to a coastal low on Wednesday. Monday night
lingering chance pops in Vermont will trend downward to nil by
midnight as weak front departs the region. Little airmass change
behind the boundary, and low level winds return to southerly by
mid day Tuesday. Tuesday weak surface high pressure will keep
precipitation at bay, however periodic vort maxes eject out of
base of 500 mb trough to west will traverse the area keeping
scattered to broken sky cover. One shortwave trough moving up in
the southwest flow will spin up a surface low Wednesday morning
along the Delmarva coast and move it northeast to southern New
England coast Wednesday evening. Chance pops across the
region...ECMWF spreads precip shield further west than GFS, and
expect to further refine this part of the forecast in coming
days. Southwesterly flow will also keep seasonable temperature
in place with highs in the 70s and lows in the 40s to lower 50s.


As of 325 AM EDT Sunday...Long term period becomes more active
as the upper trough to the west shifts east, spreading
precipitation into the area. Model differences seen last night
are starting to coalesce into a common solution. Mean upper
level trough over eastern US will move east in two phases. First
is southern low moving out of Gulf states will swing northeast
Thursday, spreading more showers up the east coast. The northern
portion of the trough will hang back over the Great Lakes, then
move east and merge with the southern low remnants over the
gulf of Maine on Friday. The result is a prolonged period of
likely pops for rain Thursday and Friday. With all the pieces in
motion there should be some breaks at some point in there, but
difficult to tease out those details this far out.

For Saturday the low finally kicks out with building high
pressure. Some lingering showers especially in Vermont in the
mountains, but trend will be to salvage at least part of the
Memorial Day weekend.

Plenty of cloud cover and rain cooled air to keep temperatures
a few degrees below normal but still seasonable. Overall flow
through this period is southwesterly as well, and no real
temperature changes.


Through 12z Monday...VFR conditions will persist today into
early this evening. SCT to BKN clouds at 150-250 continues to
spread across the region. Expect increasing and lowering cigs
through afternoon but remaining VFR at all sites through
02Z/Mon. Any showers will largely be confined to Northern NY
after 22Z. MVFR conditions possible in showers after 02Z/Mon at
KMSS and KSLK. Expect rain showers to spread east into the
Champlain Valley and the rest of Vermont between 04Z-07Z/Mon.
Rain showers continue into Monday morning.

South to southeast winds at 5-10kts expected today, with some
gusts possible overnight.


Monday: VFR/MVFR. Breezy. Chance SHRA.
Monday Night: VFR. Slight Chance SHRA.
Tuesday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday Night: VFR. Slight Chance SHRA.
Wednesday: VFR. Chance SHRA.
Wednesday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA.
Thursday: VFR. Chance SHRA.




LONG TERM...Hanson

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