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  Friday August 14, 2020

 

NWS Area Forecast Discussion


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000
FXUS61 KBTV 120237
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
1037 PM EDT Tue Aug 11 2020

.SYNOPSIS...
A surface cold front will move eastward across the North
Country this evening, with scattered showers and thunderstorms
through midnight. Patchy fog is possible during the pre-dawn
hours in the wake of the front and associated rainfall. Behind
this front, seasonably warm and mainly dry weather returns
through the remainder of the week. The next chance of significant
rainfall occurs by Monday and Tuesday of next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 1001 PM EDT Tuesday...Broken line of showers and
thunderstorms will exit central/eastern VT by 04Z, as cold front
continues ewd progression across the region. A few lingering
showers (PoP near 20%) are possible after midnight in the wake
of the front, but generally looking for a NW wind shift and
possible development of low stratus and patchy fog for the pre-
dawn hours, especially in locations that saw rainfall this
evening. Speaking of which, the heavy thunderstorms around BTV
produced 1.31" rainfall this evening, and could see some patchy
fog as winds shift light NW after midnight. Overnight lows
generally 65-70F. It will remain humid, with lower PBL dewpoints
not advecting into the region until the daylight hours
Wednesday.

Surface front then clears well south during Wednesday into Wednesday
night as southern periphery of Canadian high pressure builds across
northern NY/New England. This will start an extended period of
outstanding late summer weather with mainly dry conditions,
seasonably warm temperatures and clear to partly cloudy skies.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 304 PM EDT Tuesday...Tranquil late summer conditions are
expected to end the work week as surface high pressure over
James Bay slow drifts east over central Quebec. Aloft, an upper
trough will slowly be exiting into the Canadian maritimes which
will influence the North Country just enough to support a 5-10%
chance of an isolated afternoon terrain driven shower both days.
By and large though, the majority of the time period should be
dry with partly sunny days and mostly clear nights. Temps turn
back towards seasonal norms with highs in the upper 70s to mid
80s and lows mainly in the 50s. Dewpoints will be comfortably in
the 50s as well.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 304 PM EDT Tuesday...The upcoming weekend looks pretty
spectacular as the aforementioned surface high over central
Quebec slowly drifts over the Canadian maritimes while aloft an
upper ridge builds over the Northeast. Sunny days and clear
nights are expected, with temps very comfortable in the upper
70s to low 80s, and lows in the 50s Saturday, and slightly
warmer in the mid 50s to low 60s Sunday.

Pattern changes going into Sunday night and next week as a northern
stream trough is poised to drop into the Great Lakes Sunday night,
and will push a surface from through the forecast area sometime
during the Monday/Tuesday timeframe depending on which model you
look at.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Through 00Z Thursday...A broken line of showers and
thunderstorms will impact MPV/RUT thru 04z, before threat shifts
away from our taf sites. Next challenge will be potential for
low stratus type clouds developing acrs a few of our taf sites.
Given over 1.0 inch of rainfall at BTV and developing northerly
winds thinking ifr cigs are possible btwn 08z-12z. Also,
thinking SLK has potential to experience some ifr cigs by 06z,
while mvfr will develop at mpv/rut. Any low clouds and mvfr/ifr
should dissipate by 14z Weds, with vfr prevail on west/northwest
winds of 5 to 15 knots.

Outlook...

Wednesday Night: VFR. Patchy BR.
Thursday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Thursday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Friday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Friday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Saturday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Saturday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. NO SIG WX.
Sunday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. NO SIG WX.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMG
NEAR TERM...Banacos
SHORT TERM...Lahiff
LONG TERM...Lahiff
AVIATION...Taber


 
 
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