874
FXUS61 KBTV 231830
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
230 PM EDT Mon Mar 23 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
As of 228 PM EDT Monday...

Temperatures for today have been reduced, and the chances for
snow showers in the Northeast Kingdom increased. Otherwise,
temperatures on Thursday have been trending warmer with
northward shifts in track. No additional changes were needed.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
As of 228 PM EDT Monday...

1. Isolated to scattered snow showers expected later this
afternoon and evening, with cold temperatures tomorrow morning.

2. Warming up for the midweek with a pair of systems with light
precipitation.

3. Rain Thursday night into Friday followed by brief cold.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
As of 228 PM EDT Monday...

KEY MESSAGE 1: Vermont and northern New York have been shrouded in
cloud cover. Later this afternoon and evening, an inverted surface
trough and weak surface instability coincident with passage of an
upper trough axis will cause coverage of snow showers to increase.
Embedded heavier elements are possible, but most activity will be
fairly light. A quick coating of snow up to localized 1-2" amounts
are possible, with this most likely in the Northeast Kingdom of
Vermont. Higher elevations may observe intermittent activity, and
have greater chances for 1-3" of snow, especially northern summits.
Eventually, dry air does win out. Snow showers will gradually taper
to the summits overnight. Northwest winds will bring in cold air
that will push low temperatures into the teens to lower 20s to open
up Tuesday. Tuesday will at least be dry, with moderating
temperatures.

KEY MESSAGE 2: Early Wednesday morning, a positive tilt trough will
shuffle east. Surface low pressure will reside in far northern
Quebec Province with the tail end of its cold front just nosing into
northern New York and northern Vermont. Typically, these systems
have their dynamics well removed from the region, but there`s a
somewhat favorable alignment of a jet streak just south and a
reasonably defined axis of deformation/frontogenesis. Moisture is
still lacking, though. But some light snow showers will be possible
along the international border. Cool air back behind this front will
be short-lived, with deep southwesterly flow taking hold during the
afternoon. Temperatures will start climbing into the upper 30s to
mid 40s on Wednesday.

Then, a warm front will angle northwards Wednesday night into
Thursday. There could be some light snow. Then a transition to rain
will take place as we enter the warm sector. Overall impacts appear
minor, and there`s some degree of uncertainty to the track speed and
intensity which affects Thursday afternoon. Thursday could feature
some brief drying as the warm front pulls away, or rain showers may
start creeping in towards evening. Thursday`s high temps will likely
rise into the mid 40s to mid 50s.

KEY MESSAGE 3: The northward shift in model guidance continues for the
Thursday night into Friday system. Temperatures rise above freezing
behind the warm front on Thursday, likely even in the mountains. An
areas of rain looks to develop ahead of and with the cold front.
This looks to melt the snow outside the higher elevations but with
relatively low QPF, low dew points, and low SWE, flooding is not
expected. Temperatures drop pretty dramatically behind the cold
front and the highs should occur around midnight for most places.
Daytime highs look to be in the 20s and 30s on Friday, before
temperatures drop back into the single digits and teens Friday
night. Plattsburgh has very low hanging fruit for a record low
Friday night, with temperatures only needing to drop below 10 to set
it. Across the lake in Burlington where there is a much longer
period of record, the record low is -5.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Through 18Z Tuesday...Upslope flow continues today, combined
with blocked flow will continue to produce IFR/LIFR ceilings at
RUT and BTV thru 18z today. LIFR CIGS at MPV and EFK associated
with upslope flow will linger through the late morning before
lifting to IFR/MVFR. MVFR ceilings at PBG/MSS/SLK will stay in
most of the TAF period with SLK seeing some periods of IFR.
Winds gusts up to 20 knots through midnight, before decreasing.
Scattered snow showers are possible between 16z-22z, which
could produce brief IFR vis in the heavier activity.Winds will
stay northwesterly throughout the day at all stations except MSS
which will see northeasterly winds.

Outlook...

Tuesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday: VFR. Chance RA, Chance SN.
Wednesday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR and IFR possible.
Likely SN, Chance RA.
Thursday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance RA.
Thursday Night: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Likely RA,
Chance SN.
Friday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight chance SN.
Friday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Saturday: VFR. NO SIG WX.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
The Colchester Reef meteorological station is out of service.
This site is not serviced by the NWS and there isn`t an
estimated return to service at present. Please contact us if you
observe winds significantly deviating from the recreational
forecast.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$

WHAT HAS CHANGED...Haynes
DISCUSSION...Haynes/Myskowski
AVIATION...Myskowski
EQUIPMENT...NWS BTV