027
FXUS61 KBTV 060643
AFDBTV
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
243 AM EDT Mon Apr 6 2026
.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
As of 242 AM EDT Monday...
No significant changes were made with this forecast package.
&&
.KEY MESSAGES...
As of 242 AM EDT Monday...
1. A couple of rounds of light snow showers are expected for
the start of the work week, along with much colder temperatures.
2. High pressure will bring dry weather and a warming trend for
mid week.
3. Seasonable warmth and sunshine is likely over the weekend
following a weaker variety cold front late Friday or Friday night.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
As of 242 AM EDT Monday...
KEY MESSAGE 1: Broad cyclonic flow will persist through Tuesday as we
remain on the southern periphery of a large scale upper trough. A
few weak shortwaves and associated surface boundaries/troughs will
rotate across our region as the main system slides by to our north.
Although moisture will be somewhat limited, there will be just
enough to produce a couple of rounds of light snow showers with each
of these shortwaves/boundaries. The first of these is moving through
early this morning, and indeed, scattered showers have blossomed
across the region. Temperatures have cooled into the low to mid 30s
in most spots, but even where it`s still several degrees above
freezing (ie 38F here at BTV airport), the dry air has allowed wet
bulbing to occur; hence, precipitation has been falling mainly as
snow, with perhaps some rain and/or sleet mixed in from time to
time. A perusal of area webcams shows that little to no accumulation
has occurred with these showers so far, but we do anticipate there
could be a dusting to perhaps around half an inch through daybreak,
perhaps locally around an inch, especially in higher elevations.
Roads could be a little slick where snow is able to accumulate, so
travelers may want to leave some extra time for their Monday morning
commute.
Extent of additional shower activity is a bit more uncertain for the
daylight hours today. Some of the hi-res guidance, in particular the
HRRR, FV3, and to a lesser extent the NAM3, show isolated to
scattered showers develop this afternoon as we remain under cold air
advection. Moisture still looks meager, but there could be some
enhancement from the Great Lakes. The latest HREF indicates 6-hrly
probabilities of 20-50% of measurable snow today, mainly across the
Adirondacks and northern Greens (50-80% above 2000 ft). Meanwhile,
the NBM is much less generous, keeping precip chances below 20%
areawide. The NBM often struggles in this sort of set up, so have
gone ahead with slight chance/chance PoPs across the higher terrain
this afternoon. Like we`ve seen so far this morning, any
precipitation should fall mainly as snow due to wet-bulbing. With
temperatures to top out in the mid 30s to low 40s though, any
accumulation will be minimal and likely to melt as soon as the
shower passes by.
A reinforcing shot of cold air spreads out of Canada tonight and
Tuesday, dropping temperatures well below normal for early April.
Any showers will dissipate once the sun sets, so anticipate a dry
but chilly night in the teens and 20s. However, another round of
snow showers is possible on Tuesday with another shortwave trough
crossing overhead. Model solutions differ with this system as well.
The NAM in particular shunts the upper shortwave further south,
keeping the bulk of any precipitation south of our forecast area.
This is an outlier for now, though did note some of the other
guidance trended southward (but still remains north of the NAM
solutions). Either way, west/southwest flow ahead of the incoming
trough and surface front will allow for some lake enhanced moisture
off Lake Ontario. Used a blend of deterministic guidance for PoPs on
Tuesday, resulting in 20-30% north and 40-55% south. This seems
reasonable given the uncertainty. Snow amounts would be light, an
inch or two, at most. Tuesday will easily be the coldest day of the
week with highs only in the 20s and 30s across much of the region.
Tuesday night will be even colder as we see clearing skies and
decreasing winds under building high pressure. Lows will be in the
teens to around 20F.
KEY MESSAGE 2: High pressure will crest directly overhead Wednesday
morning, then slide eastward and off the coast Wednesday night and
Thursday. Wednesday will feature ample sunshine, along with light
winds generally trending toward the south by late in the day. As a
result, temperatures will be a good 10 degrees or more warmer than
Tuesday. It`ll still be a little below seasonal normal, but with the
sunshine and light winds, highs in the 40s to near 50F should make
for pretty pleasant day.
A warm front lifts across the region Wednesday night into Thursday,
but with limited moisture, don`t anticipate much beyond increasing
clouds. Warm air advection will continue on breezy south winds;
gusts of 20 to 25 mph are expected, locally higher in the Champlain
Valley due to channeling. Most areas will warm into the 50s, with a
few spots topping out around 60F.
KEY MESSAGE 3: There is strong multi-model consensus on a storm track
next week that is farther west/north than this past week, which will
support less impactful weather as low pressure tracks through
northern portions of Quebec. As such, as it drags a cold front
through the region, while clouds and some rain are expected on
Friday and perhaps lingering into early Saturday, precipitation may
be scattered and will tend to be light. Per the NBM QMD QPF product,
there is about a 25% chance of little or no precipitation. The 48
hour mean rainfall looks reasonable for this type of event with
rainfall in most places on the order of 0.1"-0.2" of an inch.
Again, with this low track even if we yet again have a strong high
pressure area to our east/northeast, there will not be nearly the
type of wind fields we saw this past week in the warm sector. Per
the useful ECMWF EFI, there is only a weak signal for in the eastern
side of northern Lake Champlain, corresponding to likely gusty winds
in the Thursday night to Friday morning timeframe.
Temperatures following the cold front over the weekend are
relatively uncertain compared to Friday with typical differences in
the degree of colder air filtering in and the return of milder air
aloft as high pressure crosses the region from the west. Consensus
right now shows Sunday should be the warmer of the two days, but
both days appear to be in the realm of climatological normal.
Regardless of subtle differences in the upper level pattern amongst
model clusters, there is a trend from near normal 925 millibar
temperatures to above normal on Sunday. A more aggressive warming
scenario does bring these temperatures to about the 80th percentile
by Sunday afternoon, supporting temperatures perhaps a few degrees
above the current forecast, which already is on the higher side of
the median of the blend.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Through 06Z Tuesday...A mix of MVFR and VFR conditions will be
present throughout the TAF period, although snow showers can result
in instances of IFR visibilities. Greatest probabilities of 2000 to
2900 foot ceilings along with snow showers is mainly over the next
six hours and at sites including MSS, EFK, and SLK. Shorter periods
of MVFR ceilings are possible at BTV and RUT as winds become more
consistently northwesterly with a shallow cloud deck descending to
near 3000 feet. This shift in winds will be in the wake of a series
of ill-defined boundaries bringing scattered light snow showers
through the region early this morning. Then this afternoon
additional snow showers will develop. Overall the confidence in
direct hits of heavier precipitation resulting in IFR snow is low
given the scattered nature of showers. West to northwest winds will
be gusty around 20 to 25 knots for much of the period before
diminishing between 22 to 00Z.
Outlook...
Tuesday: VFR. Chance SHSN.
Tuesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Thursday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Thursday Night: VFR. Chance RA.
Friday: VFR. Chance RA.
&&
.EQUIPMENT...
The Colchester Reef meteorological station is out of service.
This site is not serviced by the NWS. An estimated return to
service is May 1st. Please contact us if you observe winds
significantly deviating from the recreational forecast.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.
&&
$$
WHAT HAS CHANGED...Hastings
DISCUSSION...Hastings/Kutikoff
AVIATION...Kutikoff
EQUIPMENT...NWS BTV
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