391
FXUS61 KBTV 090614
AFDBTV
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
214 AM EDT Sat May 9 2026
.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
As of 213 AM EDT Saturday...
No significant changes have been made with this forecast package.
&&
.KEY MESSAGES...
As of 213 AM EDT Saturday...
1. Another round of patchy frost will likely develop overnight,
again mainly where the growing season has not yet begun.
2. A series of weak fronts will bring some showers through
early next week.
3. Quiet conditions are expected for middle of next week with
some showers possible for Thursday.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
As of 213 AM EDT Saturday...
KEY MESSAGE 1: A seasonably cool air mass continues to sit over the
region, with the greatest temperature anomalies in the mid-levels.
This cool air aloft has helped create a lot of cloud cover, and even
some isolated light rain and higher elevation snow showers today,
despite dry air near the ground. As this compact upper level low
scoots to our east tonight, the forcing to generate clouds will
leave with ridging supporting a mainly clear sky, allowing
temperatures to fall back to the low to mid 30s with localized sub-
freezing temperatures in much of the region. However, somewhat
milder temperatures in the St. Lawrence and Champlain Valleys are
expected where some southerly flow should stabilize temperatures
overnight. Hence, again no freeze or frost products were issued due
to the growing season climatology but actions to protect any
sensitive plants are advised.
KEY MESSAGE 2: A messy upper air pattern with a couple of surface
fronts sliding through the region remains on track to provide
chances for rain. The first round of showers and associated
cloudiness remains targeted to our southern areas during the daytime
hours Saturday tied to a warm front, with light rain adding up to
only around 0.1" or less of new rainfall for most locations that see
rain in our region. There is uncertainty in terms of how far north
rain will progress during this event. Run to run model guidance
doesn`t give much of a trend one way or another, with consensus
generally showing at least some measurable rain across Orange and
eastern Addison Counties and points south in Vermont and southern
portions of Essex County, New York. The northwestern flank of the
precipitation and cloud cover, associated with 700 millibar
frontogenesis, will result in cooler daytime temperatures in these
areas, mainly in the upper 40s to low 50s. Have tried to enhance the
temperature differences here versus our northern/western most
locations, where a combination of dry air, sunshine, and breezy
southerly breezes will result in much warmer conditions in the 60s.
The next rainfall event follows quickly for Saturday night as a cold
front approaches from the west. The dynamics are more favorable for
relatively heavy precipitation, although neither the thermal nor
pressure gradient is conducive for anything noteworthy with regards
to precipitation rates and wind gusts. Rainfall will be on the
scattered side as the primary front sweeps eastward, with pretty
meager moisture supporting most areas again seeing under 0.1" of an
inch of rain. Most of the showers will exit Sunday morning, with
some potential redevelopment of showers during the daytime hours;
greatest chances of rain during the day will be over southern and
eastern portions of Vermont. As for winds, while not overly
impactful we have bumped up higher elevation winds with an overnight
low level jet near 40 to 45 knots. High stability will limit
breeziness elsewhere. Winds will taper off during the day Sunday
when mixing develops, but also with the weakness of the front there
also won`t be a lot of cold air advection to maximize momentum
transfer. That being said, the westerly flow that develops Sunday
afternoon could become hazardous for any early season marine
interests as choppy waves could develop.
Finally, while the current forecast for Monday is mainly dry,
another upper level trough and subtle surface boundary will likely
combine to support limited shower chances. These showers would
largely be diurnally-driven with increasing instability/steep lower
level lapse rates, not too different from how today has unfolded.
The greater PoPs right now during the afternoon look reasonable
across the northernmost areas in the Adirondacks, but a spot shower
probably could occur anywhere in northern New York and northern
portions of Vermont per latest guidance. Temperatures should trend
cooler, featuring high temperatures about 5 degrees below those on
Sunday and around 10 degrees below normal.
KEY MESSAGE 3: Tuesday is favored to be the coolest day of the week
with temperatures most likely ranging in the 50s for most location
and around 60 degrees for southern Vermont. This will largely be due
to moderate northwest flow under the upper level trough. This
pattern favors some breezes in the northern Champlain Valley; gusts
were increased to be generally in the 20-30 mph over Lake Champlain.
A few showers will be possible under the trough, but migratory
ridging will likely increase stability through the day limiting
shower chances to more isolated coverage.
There is a stronger consensus that temperatures will warm through
the remainder of the week with highs running around to slightly over
seasonal averages in the mid/upper 60s for broader valleys. Guidance
continues to point to a system to move through around Thursday,
though some discrepancies on timing remain. Rain will be likely as
it moves through, but forcing may be more limited with projections
showing the low becoming increasingly barotropic as it tracks
eastward.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Through 00Z Sunday...Showers are diminishing across the region,
and the combination of sunset and departure of an upper trough
will clear skies tonight. West to northwest winds will trend
light and variable beyond 02z. Winds will become south to
southeasterly after 12z, and quickly increase to 9 to 14 knots
with gusts to 20 knots. Winds appear likely to be locally higher
at KPBG up to 15 knots and gusting to 25 knots. Clouds will
increase from the south with light rain. The cut off will be
sharp, with rain and potential MVFR reach KRUT and KMPV about
16z-17z, but not at any other terminal. Ceilings will trend
6000-10000 ft agl outside KMPV and KRUT. After 22z, rain will
shift east and winds will begin to slacken.
Outlook...
Sunday: VFR. Chance SHRA.
Sunday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Monday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
Monday Night: VFR. Patchy frost.
Tuesday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.
&&
$$
WHAT HAS CHANGED...Clay
DISCUSSION...SLW/Clay
AVIATION...SLW
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