984
FXUS61 KBTV 030529
AFDBTV
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
129 AM EDT Fri Apr 3 2026
.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
As of 239 PM EDT Thursday...
Precipitation amounts are on the downward trend, with many
models suggesting slightly lower QPF amounts than 24 hours ago.
With this downward trend, ice accumulation is also looking more
isolated, sticking to higher elevations and cold hollows east of
the Greens.
&&
.KEY MESSAGES...
As of 239 PM EDT Thursday...
1. Light wintry precipitation and light icing are likely in the
mountains and much of Vermont east of the Green Mountains
tonight and early Friday morning. Slick travel conditions are
possible.
2. Unseasonably warm conditions expected Friday with showers,
thunderstorms, and gusty winds as high as 35-45 knots likely in
the Champlain Valley and higher elevations.
3. Another storm system will bring widespread, at times heavy,
rainfall this weekend. The combination of this widespread
rainfall and additional higher elevation snowmelt continues to
bring the expectation of sharp river rises with low risk of
reaching bankful.
4. Light snow showers and cooler conditions expected early next
week, turning more seasonable by mid week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
As of 239 PM EDT Thursday...
KEY MESSAGE 1: This afternoon, high pressure is stationed
across Quebec, New Brunswick, and Maine. Southerly flow aloft
will be increasing into the evening hours as a low pressure
system currently centered over the Plains shifts into the Great
Lakes, then southeastern Ontario, tonight. Gradient winds will
become enhanced as the low pressure approaches northern New York
and Vermont, resulting in modest warm air advection and
increased surface winds, particularly in north-south oriented
valleys like the Champlain Valley where funneling may occur. A
strong low level jet streak of up to 60-65 knots at 850 mb will
also become directly overhead tonight, bringing with it the
potential for southerly surface gusts up to 35-45 knots by early
Friday morning. However, a low level inversion may limit some
of the strongest gusts. Despite the warm air advection and
southerly flow, we are expecting portions of the northern
Adirondacks and Greens eastward in Vermont to hold onto cold air
at the surface tonight due to Cold Air Damming. While the St.
Lawrence and Champlain valleys will likely have temperatures in
the mid 30s and 40s, most other spots will see lows fall into
the lower 30s. As a result, as light precipitation spreads
northeastward this evening, we`ll see a minor freezing rain
event develop in portions of central and eastern Vermont as well
as the higher peaks and cold hollows of the Adirondacks. The
degree of cold air will be fairly marginal such that it`ll take
time for temperatures to fall below freezing and this sub-
freezing air will tend to settle in the mid-slopes of the
Greens. Lower elevations, such as in the Upper Valley and in the
vicinity of Lake Memphremagog, will likely stay just above
freezing tonight. Overall ice accumulations will range from a
light glaze to a quarter of an inch of ice possible at the
highest peaks. Total precipitation amounts are expected to be in
the 0.05-0.40" range, with highest amounts in the St. Lawrence
Valley.
KEY MESSAGE 2: Southwesterly winds aloft will continue to blow
across northern New York and Vermont on Friday, with 850 mb
levels likely seeing 60-65 knots throughout the day. A deep low
level inversion could limit how much of this mixes down to the
surface, but high winds will be low enough in elevation that
southerly surface gusts 35-45 knots seem likely in the Champlain
Valley and at higher elevations on Friday morning. Temperatures
on Friday are anticipated to reach the 60s for most despite
lingering clouds and rain, which will be 15-20 degrees above
seasonal normals for early April in this region. A few rumbles
of thunder are likely given the warmth and passage of a couple
frontal boundaries Friday. Winds will see a gradual decrease
again Friday night as the jet moves eastward and high pressure
noses in from Hudson Bay. Total rainfall amounts from Friday and
Friday night are anticipated to be anywhere from a couple
hundredths of an inch to a third of an inch, with highest
amounts occurring in northern Vermont along the international
border.
KEY MESSAGE 3: Cooler and drier northwesterly winds will filter
in for Saturday, which has trended cooler but pleasant with
highs in the mid 50s and lower 60s. Clouds will be on the
increase ahead of the next storm system, which is likely to
bring precipitation to northern New York by the end of the day,
spreading to Vermont Saturday night from west to east. A narrow
plume of deep moisture riding out ahead of cold front will
ensure widespread rainfall that could be briefly heavy. The
combination of this widespread rainfall and additional higher
elevation snowmelt continues to bring the expectation of sharp
river rises with low risk of reaching bankful. Southeasterly
surface winds will increase Saturday night as the 850 mb jet
reaches as high as 65-70 knots out of the southwest, though a
deep low level inversion sets up again to limit mixing.
Temperatures will remain relatively mild Saturday night in the
upper 30s to mid 40s for most. On Sunday, a sharp frontal
boundary will flip winds to a more westerly or southwesterly
direction at the surface, and high temperatures look similar to
Saturday. Total rainfall Saturday into Sunday is expected to
reach around 0.30-1.10", with highest rainfall amounts in
northern New York/the St. Lawrence Valley.
KEY MESSAGE 4: Upper level troughing behind a cold front Sunday
will draw below average northwest Canadian air into the region
with several lobes of embedded shortwave energy. The 540dm line
will sink south of the region promoting both below average highs
on Monday in the low 40s along with enough cold air in the mid
to upper levels to sustain snow growth. Troughing riding along
an area of high pressure across the Great Lakes will bring
chances for snow showers, mainly diurnally driven, as the mid
and upper levels cool with steepening lapse rates. With these
steepening lapse rates, Monday afternoon will be breezy with
occasional winds gusts around 20 MPH, weakening by Monday
evening. Snow showers should be more confined to the northern
Greens and Northeast Kingdom as well as the Adirondacks, but a
flurry in the Champlain Valley cannot be ruled out. Temperatures
in the deeper valleys and below 2000ft agl will not be
conducive for any accumulation but rather some light flurries
mixed with some light rain at times. Some summit levels may see
a dusting to a tenth or two, but no impacts are expected. These
showers will be very shallow with the equilibrium level only
around 800mb further supporting little to no accumulations.
Given the northwest flow, snow showers may persist into Tuesday,
but by Tuesday night, high pressure will finally shift east
from the Great Lakes bringing an end to any lingering snow
showers. With the high pressure, temperatures will trend towards
normal to above normal by mid to late week with some showers
chances by late next week.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Through 06Z Saturday...LLWS will be the main aviation threat
this forecast period with some IFR/MVFR CIGs being the secondary
threat. A low level jet slowly moves through the region
overnight and Friday with 60kts in the 2000-5000ft layer
resulting in both speed and directional shear promoting
hazardous flying conditions. Otherwise, MVFR conditions
currently prevail across the region with ceilings generally
between 1400 and 2500 ft AGL. While rain showers are expected
across all terminals overnight, there is a small chance that
eastern Vermont terminals could see freezing rain, although the
chances are too small to include in the forecast. While winds
stay up aloft overnight, there is a decent chance of some IFR at
MPV/EFK/SLK. SFC winds will continue to strengthen throughout
the TAF period, with gusts of 20 to 30 knots possible before
speeds begin to taper down after 22Z.
Outlook...
Saturday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA.
Saturday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Windy with
gusts to 30 kt. Definite SHRA.
Sunday: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. Definite SHRA.
Sunday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance SHSN,
Slight chance SHRA.
Monday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Slight chance SHSN.
Monday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight chance
SHSN.
Tuesday: VFR. Slight chance SHSN.
&&
.EQUIPMENT...
The Colchester Reef meteorological station is out of service.
This site is not serviced by the NWS. An estimated return to
service is May 1st. Please contact us if you observe winds
significantly deviating from the recreational forecast.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...Winter Weather Advisory until 10 AM EDT this morning for
VTZ003-004-006>008-010-018>021.
NY...None.
&&
$$
WHAT HAS CHANGED...Storm
DISCUSSION...Storm/Danzig
AVIATION...Boyd/Neiles
EQUIPMENT...NWS BTV
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