313
FXUS61 KBTV 300725
AFDBTV
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
225 AM EST Sun Nov 30 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
A low pressure system moving through the region will allow for
breezy conditions and light snowfall accumulations, with a
transition to rainfall expected within the valleys. Much cooler air
will follow for Monday. Another low pressure system will likely pass
to our south on Tuesday, which may support a widespread snowfall in
the region. An Arctic front is probable for Thursday, bringing
chances for squall-like showers and sharply colder air.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 211 AM EST Sunday...A Wind Advisory is in effect for portions
of northern New York and Vermont from 7 AM this morning until 7 PM
this afternoon due to strong southerly winds.
Low pressure centered over the Great Lakes will continue to pass to
our west, bringing another day of active weather to the region
today. While light precipitation is expected, the winds look to be
the more impactful weather, with breezy southerly winds expected due
to a strong low level jet. There is still some uncertainty regarding
how well these winds will actually mix down to the surface, with
model soundings showing a wide range of outcomes, especially when
taking into account precipitation and how well the wind potential
lines up with the dry slot this afternoon. With the latest guidance
continuing to support greater potential of gusts of 45 mph,
especially along the northern slopes of the Adirondacks and the
shores of Lake Champlain, a Wind Advisory was issued. Areas that
receive snowfall today will have periods of sharply reduced
visibility due to blowing snow, so motorists should use extra
caution.
This low pressure will continue to bring chances for precipitation
across the region today. While snow is expected at the onset for all
locations, the strong southerly flow will allow for temperatures to
warm enough within the valleys that precipitation will transition to
rain by the afternoon. Some periods of heavier snowfall may be
possible later this evening as the systems cold front crosses the
region, with the HREF showing some low probabilities of rates
exceeding 1 inch per hour across northern New York. Total snowfall
amounts associated with this event will generally be just a trace in
the broader valleys while higher elevations will likely accumulate a
few inches of snow. As the night progresses, widespread
precipitation will transitions to become more orographically driven
towards Monday morning.
Cool and quiet weather is expected during the day Monday as another
brief period of high pressure builds into the region in between
systems. High temperatures on Monday look to only climb into the 20s
to low 30s, with most locations struggling to get above freezing.
Dry weather and lighter winds are expected throughout the day, with
a few chances for some blue skies in the afternoon.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 225 AM EST Sunday...Unseasonably cool temperatures will
continue with 925/850mb 0C lines well displaced southward towards
the mid Atlantic States and the Northeast in the base of an
unusually broad longwave trough extending from the Rockies to
eastern Canada; Monday night lows expected to be generally in the
teens with a few locations up to 20 degrees - 5 to 10 degrees cooler
than seasonal averages. With no major blocking features favored,
flow will remain progressive. Weak high pressure crests and exits
Monday night clearing the way for an approaching system out of the
Ohio River Valley. Moisture advection is expected to increase off
the Atlantic ahead of this system and as it tracks across the
Northeast setting the stage for widespread snowfall, especially for
Vermont. As the system tracks eastward, rapid intensification is a
given as it crosses the offshore baroclinic zone. Given decent
synoptic support and favorable moisture transport vectors, there
will be an area of significant snowfall north of the low`s track and
925/850mb 0C line. This is where uncertainty increases with this
system. The low`s track is continued to be favored by model
consensus to be just offshore inside the benchmark for impacts to
Vermont/portions of northern New York. However, there are subtle
differences in individual members and ensemble groups that are
presenting some differing outcomes in terms of QPF and snowfall
amounts. Most recent model guidance continues to favor snow amounts
of 4+ inches across southern Vermont, but some guidance have shifted
increasing amounts northward while NBM probabilities for this
outcome have decreased. Local and conventional experience point to a
decent chance of 4 to 8 inches across portions of southern Vermont,
so still leaning in this direction. One concern is than too much QPF
is being pushed too far northward in latest model runs, but this
will be refined in the next 24 hours; some locations in central
Vermont and northeastern Vermont could see 2 to 5 inches while
amounts taper sharply westward. Hopefully, next runs of CAMs will
give more insight into the low`s track and how strong moisture
transport will be to better refine snow/QPF estimate. Fortunately,
there`s no need to discuss precipitation type as an all-snow
scenario is exceedingly likely.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 225 AM EST Sunday...Very strong model consensus continues for
Thursday`s expected arctic front. As such, opted to increase winds
ahead and behind the frontal boundary. Gusts in excess of 30 mph
seem probable with some snow squall characteristics being probable.
Some accumulating snow in the St Lawrence Valley is becoming more
likely ahead of and along the front, but likely accumulations are
expected to be less than 4 inches at this time. Still, given the
light character of this snow, it could allow for poorer visibility
as the front moves through.
Behind the front, strong thermal packing and strong cold air
advection continue to be presented across all models. This points to
unusually cold temperatures for early December and frigid wind
chills. Currently, anticipating wind chill values Thursday night to
dip below 0F for most locations with some higher elevations
approaching -20F. Broad longwave troughing is expected to continue
into the weekend keeping the pattern active with additional, cold-
variety systems and colder than average temperatures likely.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Through 06Z Saturday...VFR conditions currently prevail across all
terminals before lower ceilings and precipitation arrive to the
region. Ceilings will generally begin to lower towards 09Z or so,
with more widespread MVFR expected between 12Z and 18Z. Snow will
begin to move into the region, which will also bring some reduced
visibilities. Periods of light to moderate snow are expected for
most terminals, likely bringing some IFR visibilities, especially
KSLK and KMSS where snow will more persistent. Precipitation is
expected to transition towards rain at KRUT, KPBG, and KBTV through
the afternoon, which will allow for some improved visibilities.
Light and variable winds will quickly increase out of the
south/southwest towards 12Z, with gusts of 20 to 30 knots expected
across all terminals and even higher gusts possible at
KSLK/KPBG/KBTV where a Wind Advisory is in effect. Widespread LLWS
is expected across all terminals after 15Z, persisting through much
of the afternoon.
Outlook...
Monday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. NO SIG WX.
Monday Night: VFR. Slight chance SN.
Tuesday: Mainly MVFR and IFR, with local VFR possible. Likely SN.
Tuesday Night: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. Chance SN.
Wednesday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance
SHSN.
Thursday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance SHSN.
&&
.MARINE...
A Lake Wind Advisory is currently in effect. Large scale
southerly flow will result in sustained winds over 25 knots, and
exceeding 30 knots for much of the day, in the Inland Sea and
Broad Waters of Lake Champlain with even higher gusts possible.
Expect substantial seiche action as waves build 2 to 4 feet in
the northern waters, and 4 to 6 feet on the broad waters. A
slight easterly component to the wind will favor areas like
Cumberland Bay with some of the largest waves through the
afternoon before shifting more due southerly.
&&
.EQUIPMENT...
NOAA Weather Radio station WXM-44, transmitting from Mt.
Ascutney, Vermont, on frequency 162.475 MHz is non-operational
at this time. NWS technicians have diagnosed the problem, but
repairs will likely not be able to occur for quite some time due
to circumstances beyond our control. Therefore, the time of
return to service is currently unknown. The following NOAA
Weather Radio transmitters may be able to provide service during
this outage: WWG 50 from Burke Mtn, VT at 162.425 MHz and WNG
546 from Hanover, NH at 162.525 MHz.
Equipment malfunctions at the Colchester Reef meteorological
station will likely leave it inoperable for an extended period
of time. This site is not serviced by the NWS. Technicians do
not currently have an estimated return to service for this
station. Use extra caution when navigating the broad waters of
Lake Champlain, and please contact us if you observe winds
significantly deviating from the forecast.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...Wind Advisory from 7 AM this morning to 7 PM EST this evening
for VTZ001-002-005.
NY...Wind Advisory from 7 AM this morning to 7 PM EST this evening
for NYZ027-028-030-031-034-035.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Kremer
NEAR TERM...Kremer
SHORT TERM...Boyd
LONG TERM...Boyd
AVIATION...Kremer
MARINE...Team BTV
EQUIPMENT...Team BTV
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