838
FXUS61 KBTV 242314
AFDBTV
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
614 PM EST Mon Nov 24 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
Clouds will remain across the region as the region sits between
our departing system to the east and an approaching system in
the lower Mississippi Valley. A warm front will bring light rain
late Tuesday and even milder conditions for Wednesday,
especially immediately ahead of a cold front. This front will
pass through Wednesday night, which will promote showers and
blustery conditions into Thanksgiving Day. Gusty winds will
continue Thursday night into Friday along with localized lake-
effect snowfall in the St. Lawrence Valley becoming more
scattered with lighter winds winds becoming for the weekend.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 124 PM EST Monday...Low-level moisture left behind by our
departing weekend system will keep most of the area under the
influence of a persistent stratus deck, particularly in the
Northeast Kingdom and northern Adirondacks. Downsloping and some
mountain wave breaks in the western Champlain Valley, and
across portions of southern Vermont are leading to a few breaks
in the clouds, but by and large most of the region will remain
cloudy through tonight. Tonight will be seasonable with
temperatures in the mid to upper 20s to near 30 in the St.
Lawrence and Champlain Valleys. Temperatures will steadily
increase by early morning as significantly more mild air advects
into the area from the south/southwest with high pressure
skirting to our south. An approaching surface low from the lower
Mississippi River Valley will ride along the Ohio River towards
our region on Tuesday. Precipitation ahead of a warm front may
briefly pass through the St. Lawrence Valley early tomorrow
morning, but how much actually reaches the surface will depend
on how dry the St. Lawrence Valley gets tonight, thus there`s a
chance it may just fall as virga. Otherwise, most of the area
should remain dry tomorrow with temperatures 5-10 degrees warmer
into the mid to upper 40s. Ahead of the frontal system,
southerly flow will ramp up surface winds with a 40 knot low
level jet associated with the system. Channeled flow in the
Champlain Valley will result in surface winds 15 to 20 mph, with
gusts up to 25 mph.
By late tomorrow afternoon the main warm front will arrive with
widespread precipitation lasting well into Tuesday night.
Depending on cloud cover, surface temperatures at the onset of
precipitation across Essex County, VT may be near freezing which
could lead to a brief period of freezing rain, mainly in the
higher terrain. There is still some uncertainty in the low
temperatures, and if temperatures over exceed the forecast
tomorrow afternoon, lower values may be harder to achieve with
limited time to cool. Current forecast has little if any ice
accretion. Overall, precipitation will begin and end as rain
with temperatures well above freezing. Snow levels will rise
above 5000ft agl which will likely lead to rain even at the
summits of the Adirondacks and Green Mountains. Some snow melt
will be possible in addition to the rain, however, given the
receptible nature of the ground to water given recent drought
conditions, no flooding is expected.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 124 PM EST Monday...Mild and wet conditions will continue
Tuesday overnight and through Wednesday. The bulk of the rain
from a warm front will fall Tuesday night into early Wednesday
morning before becoming more scattered during the day Wednesday.
Precipitation amounts will be around 0.25 to 0.4 inches, with
higher amounts across southern and central Greens. Behind the
warm front, surging warm moist air with teleconnections to the
Gulf and Atlantic will keep low level moisture and warm surface
temperatures in place. High Wednesday could reach into the upper
40s to low 50s, a good 10 degrees above average for most
locations. Mountain summit temperatures look to also rise above
freezing which should lead to further snow melt. Scattered rain
showers and drizzle in the warm sector will be the main
precipitation threat for Wednesday. Gusty south/southwest winds
10 to 15 mph will continue through the day Wednesday with winds
increasing further by Wednesday night ahead of a cold front. The
cold front moves through early Wednesday night across northern
New York with the potential for some moderate rain showers.
Gusts from model soundings could gust up to 30 to 35 mph, with
higher terrain gusts at the onset of the front and continue
through Wednesday night into early Thursday morning. Holiday
travel Wednesday does not appear to have any major impacts
across our area, but make sure to pay close attention to the
forecast for any changes.
Once the cold front has passed through early Wednesday night,
winds will remain southwesterly as an associated occluding low
slides north across the eastern Ontario/western Quebec border.
Lingering rain showers in northern Vermont should persist
through Wednesday night. Cold gusty southwestlery winds across
the warmer Lake Ontario will set up for a good lake effect event
across southern St. Lawrence County. The band of precipitation
in southern St. Lawrence County may start off as a rain/snow mix
but should change to all snow as temperatures plummet back into
the mid to upper 20s overnight.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 134 PM EST Monday...A deepening low tracks by to the
north Thursday into Thursday night, and the cold front will
already be through by Thursday morning. Strong cold air
advection will be occurring during the day, with efficient
mixing and strong winds aloft causing gusty winds. Winds will be
southwesterly eventually changing to westerly, and the
strongest jet will be over northern New York. Channeled flow in
the St. Lawrence Valley and some downsloping across the far
northern Adirondacks will enhance the winds. In those places,
gusts up to 40 mph are possible, while elsewhere gusts should be
mostly up to 30 mph. These strong southwesterly winds and a
quickly cooling airmass will also kick off a lake effect snow
machine. It will angle into parts of St. Lawrence County on
Thursday before shifting south of the region on Friday as winds
become more westerly and northwesterly. Totals in the 5-10 inch
range are possible in the most favored areas of St. Lawrence
County, with a few inches elsewhere. As the center of the low
tracks to the east and flow becomes northwesterly, it
transitions into upslope snow on the favored western slopes. It
is looking increasingly likely that these areas receive several
inches as well. The moisture gradually exits the region heading
into the weekend and conditions should dry. If clouds clear
quick enough Saturday night, radiational cooling could cause
temperatures to drop quite far Sunday morning, though nothing
unprecedented for the time of year. Another storm system moves
into the region for the start of next week. Guidance has been
trending toward a more northern track, transitioning any snow to
rain pretty quickly. However, the guidance has not fully
converged, and there are many ensemble members favoring a more
southerly track and a weaker track. These would either cause
more snow or little precipitation. After the low exits, a much
colder airmass looks to advect into the region.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Through 00Z Wednesday...All terminals except for EFK are now
VFR. EFK still has an MVFR ceiling in place, but this should be
scattering out soon. After the ceilings finally scatter, VFR
conditions should persist area wide into Tuesday afternoon.
Winds will become light to calm or terrain driven overnight.
Winds will become southerly late in the night and increase going
into Tuesday. Winds will gust between 10 and 15 kts in most
places during the day.
Outlook...
Tuesday Night: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. Definite RA.
Wednesday: Mainly MVFR, with areas IFR possible. Chance RA.
Wednesday Night: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. Windy with gusts
to 30 kt. Likely RA, Chance SHRA, Chance SHSN.
Thanksgiving Day: VFR. Windy with gusts to 30 kt. Chance SHSN.
Thursday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Windy with
gusts to 30 kt. Chance SHSN.
Friday: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. Chance SHSN.
Friday Night: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. Chance SHSN.
Saturday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. NO SIG WX.
&&
.EQUIPMENT...
NOAA Weather Radio station WXM-44, transmitting from Mt.
Ascutney, Vermont, on frequency 162.475 MHz is non-operational
at this time. NWS technicians have diagnosed the problem, but
repairs will likely not be able to occur for quite some time due
to circumstances beyond our control. Therefore, the time of
return to service is currently unknown. The following NOAA
Weather Radio transmitters may be able to provide service during
this outage: WWG 50 from Burke Mtn, VT at 162.425 MHz and WNG
546 from Hanover, NH at 162.525 MHz.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Danzig
NEAR TERM...Danzig
SHORT TERM...Danzig
LONG TERM...Myskowski
AVIATION...Myskowski/Neiles
EQUIPMENT...Team BTV
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