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FXUS61 KBTV 012319
AFDBTV
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
619 PM EST Sun Feb 1 2026
.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
As of 115 PM EST Sunday...
A persistent north/south oriented lake enhanced band has
brought a couple inches of snow as far south as Bridport. This
feature will slowly wind down as the afternoon goes on. Mountain PoPs
have increased slightly for Wednesday and Thursday associated
with a closed low passing to our north.
&&
.KEY MESSAGES...
As of 115 PM EST Sunday...
1. Temperatures continue below normal with no widespread
precipitation over the next few days.
2. Wednesday through Sunday will feature several chances for
snow showers as our region remains under influence of upper level
troughing, then very cold conditions return to the region this
weekend.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
As of 115 PM EST Sunday...
KEY MESSAGE 1: The lake cloud that developed yesterday has lingered
throughout the day Sunday. Bringing accumulating snow in the
vicinity of Lake Champlain from Burton Island down through Bridport.
We`ve received localized reports of a couple inches associated with
this event. PoPs will start to drop this afternoon as the winds
start to wane.
A persistent longwave trough remains the dominant
feature through Tuesday. While daytime temperatures warm slightly
Monday and Tuesday, the forecast still calls for below normal
temperatures. Sunday night will once again bring temperatures
near 0F. As the nor`easter moves further off shore surface high
pressure will build back in. The associated subsidence inversion
will allow daytime temperatures to reach into the teens and
twenties Monday and Tuesday while suppressing any precipitation.
A shortwave approaches from the west on Tuesday, bringing
slight chance Pops into the Saint Lawrence Valley.
KEY MESSAGE 2: Upper level closed low is expected to swing through the
region on Wednesday, just north of the international border, moving
generally eastward. It`s possible for some snow showers to develop
that morning, mainly in higher terrain and upslope areas. There
should also be a bit of cold air advection in west to northwest flow
associated with low level surface low pressure rotating to our north
and east. This will result in highs only in the upper teens and 20s
for most. Thursday, current deterministic guidance contains
varying solutions, but the main elements are that some cold air
advection should be present in west to northwest flow, dry air
dominates, and forcing is primarily aloft with no strong surface
feature. Some solutions show only show some weak shortwave
energy during this time, but the GFS in particular has a much
deeper, closed low. The deterministic models also vary in the
depth of cold air moving in. At the moment, it looks like any
snow showers produced Thursday will be light, kept mostly in the
mountains, and widely scattered due to the influx of dry air
and potential lack of forcing.
Friday and Friday night, widespread snow showers associated with a
third upper disturbance are likely, though models continue to shift
the timing of this clipper system from run to run. The deterministic
GFS is again more aggressive with the strength of a closed upper low
pressure diving through New England, but on the ECMWF it would be a
weak shortwave followed by a deeper, narrow axis of troughing as
closed upper low stays well to our north. GFS also shows stronger
and more well-defined surface low pressure moving through or just to
the north of northern New York and Vermont while ECMWF dives primary
surface low pressure across the Ohio Valley instead. Meanwhile,
ensembles show a wide range of low tracks. One thing the
deterministic and ensemble models agree on, however, is the
influx of cold air following the system for the weekend.
Projections of 850mb temperatures are as low as -32 to -25 C.
Current forecast for surface temperatures is 5 to 15 degrees
below zero at night and wind chills even lower.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Through 00Z Tuesday...VFR conditions prevail currently at all 7
of our taf sites with north/northeast winds of 3 to 7 knots.
Clear skies and weakening winds will allow temps to fall quickly
below their cross-over values, increasing the potential for
localized patchy freezing fog/hz and low cigs. Highest
confidence of IFR/LIFR conditions will be at SLK/MPV and EFK
with less potential at BTV/MSS toward sunrise on Monday.
Otherwise, any lingering low clouds will dissipate by 15z with
VFR conditions and light winds expected on Monday.
Outlook...
Monday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight chance
SHSN.
Wednesday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. NO SIG WX.
Thursday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Thursday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Friday: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. Chance SN.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Langbauer/Storm
AVIATION...Taber
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