347
FXUS61 KBTV 230649
AFDBTV
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
249 AM EDT Sat May 23 2026
.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
As of 249 AM EDT Saturday...
Chances of rain continue to increase for Sunday and decrease for
Monday. Accordingly, temperatures on Sunday have trended cooler and
on Monday trended warmer.
&&
.KEY MESSAGES...
As of 249 AM EDT Saturday...
1. Seasonably warm and dry conditions to start the holiday
weekend will lead to cold water immersion safety concerns today.
2. Light rain and much cooler conditions are expected Sunday
along with gusty southeasterly winds. Additional showers are
possible on Memorial Day, especially during the morning.
3. Remaining unsettled through mid to late next week, likely
trending cooler by next weekend.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
As of 249 AM EDT Saturday...
KEY MESSAGE 1: A narrowing deep layer ridge will be centered directly
over New England today, keeping us dry for one more day. High
altitude clouds will gradually lower through tonight, but these
clouds should allow enough sunlight to boost temperatures,
especially as you go north and east within our region. Clouds will
thicken enough to limit solar heating by late in the day, but by
that point temperatures should have risen into the upper 60s to mid
70s. Given these temperatures, light winds, and much less desirable
weather on Sunday, would expect a lot of activity on area lakes and
rivers today. These water bodies remain dangerously cold, with risk
of cold water shock and hypothermia if you are suddenly immersed in
the water. Use caution if boating this weekend and take the
necessary safe cold water boating practices such as wearing a life
jacket and dry suit.
KEY MESSAGE 2: Rain is on track to overspread our region Sunday morning
as a weak wave of low pressure passing to our west drags a warm
front northeastward, resulting in substantial overrunning/rising
motions in the mid levels. The most likely onset of rain remains
similar to the previous forecast, soon after midnight in a swath
across northern New York and far western Vermont stretching from
northwest to southeast, gradually expanding eastward into the
northern Champlain Valley and central Vermont near or soon after
sunrise, and eventually reaching northeastern Vermont by late
morning. Rain will then persist for much of the day, at times very
light but occasionally steadier with pockets of hourly rainfall
amounts likely near 0.1". Chances of rain diminish during the
afternoon from the western Adirondacks and points west and in the
evening as you go farther east. Total rainfall amounts through the
day continue to look lightest in much of northern Vermont in the
range of 0.1" to 0.25", trending a little heavier in western and
southern portions of the state where they will tend to be in the
0.25" to 0.5" range. Highest amounts are favored in northern New
York where low level convergence will be greatest, with amounts
averaging in 0.3" to 0.75".
Wind gusts were further increased with this forecast given model
trends in the magnitude of winds near the top of the low level
inversion. 925 millibar winds are progged to reach 50 to 55 knots
for a short period Sunday morning along the western slopes of the
Green Mountains. Especially if these winds materialize ahead of rain
falling, gusts approaching Advisory level become more likely,
such as in the typical trouble spots such as Bolton and Lincoln.
The consensus of guidance suggests winds will remain shy of
criteria, but we`ll re-evaluate as the latest data comes in.
The next round of rain on Memorial Day still looks primarily to pass
through during the morning as low pressure and attendant weak
front move through. Briefly moderate rain is possible with this
system. Then much drier air aloft will enter the region
coincident with a surface wind shift to west/northwest winds.
Therefore, chances of rain during the afternoon currently look
minimal and with decreasing cloud cover, it could be a very nice
afternoon. Think forecast temperatures might be a bit too warm,
especially if cloudy skies linger; confidence in high
temperatures are a little higher in areas such as the St.
Lawrence Valley than across eastern Vermont. Regardless, it
should be much milder than Sunday. Highs Sunday will mainly be
in the upper 40s to low 50s and on Monday are more likely to
reach the mid 60s to low 70s.
KEY MESSAGE 3: Warmer and drier conditions look to return on Tuesday as
weak high pressure builds into the Northeast. This will be short
lived, however; although exact details differ widely from model to
model and run to run, especially beyond Wednesday, confidence in a
deep upper low developing over eastern Canada continues to increase.
Shortwave troughs and associated surface systems will rotate around
this upper low, bringing rounds of showers and cooler weather for
much of next week. The first batch of precipitation arrives Tuesday
night into Wednesday with a cold frontal passage. This front sets
the stage for cooler temperatures; after highs in the mid 70s to low
80s Tuesday and Wednesday, the end of the week is looking quite a
bit colder, and expect diurnal showers to develop on Thursday due to
cooling aloft. There`s a lot of model spread thereafter, but overall
consensus is a robust upper shortwave, perhaps even a cutoff low,
will cross overhead sometime in the Friday/Saturday timeframe. This
would bring better chances for widespread precipitation and daytime
highs potentially only in the 50s (or even 40s). Have stayed with
WPC/NBM forecast with this package given the uncertainty, but we may
need to start adjusting temperatures down and PoPs up for late next
week if these trends hold true.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Through 06Z Sunday...High pressure continues to provide our taf
sites with VFR conditions the next 12 to 24 hours. Winds will
become light and terrain driven after sunset this evening,
before shifting to the south/southeast at 4 to 8 knots on
Saturday, except northeast at MSS. Mid/upper level clouds will
continue to slowly spread across our region tonight into
Saturday.
Outlook...
Sunday: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. Likely RA.
Sunday Night: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Chance SHRA.
Memorial Day: Mainly MVFR, with areas IFR possible. Chance SHRA.
Monday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA.
Wednesday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA,
Slight chance TSRA.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...Frost Advisory until 7 AM EDT this morning for VTZ004.
NY...Frost Advisory until 7 AM EDT this morning for NYZ030.
&&
$$
WHAT HAS CHANGED...Kutikoff
DISCUSSION...Kutikoff/Hastings
AVIATION...Hastings
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