707
FXUS61 KBTV 281130
AFDBTV
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
630 AM EST Fri Nov 28 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
Lake effect snow is wrapping up across northern New York early
this morning with lingering activity moving towards south-
central Vermont. For this afternoon, upslope snow over
northern and western mountains will develop will convective snow
showers with the potential for embedded gusty winds will develop
over eastern Vermont. Precipitation will taper off on Saturday
ahead of the next storm system arrives on Sunday with a mix of
valley rain and mountain snow. An active wintry weather pattern
looks to unfold turning our calendars into December.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 547 AM EST Friday...Took down the Lake Effect headlines.
The primary lake effect band has moved south and into Vermont at
the approach of a mid-level trough. The curl is clearly evident
on satellite. Behind it, winds will turn a bit more west-
northwest, and then upslope snow showers will develop. Over
northern New York, activity will be hampered by a small mixed
layer as an inversion will set up around 3000 ft agl. However,
Vermont will have a deeper mixed layer up to 700mb, and 8.5-9
C/km lapse rates. If there`s any residual boundary from lake
effect activity as a trough swings east this afternoon, there
could be a few pockets of heavy snow showers, mainly over
eastern Vermont. Although there`s not really much in the way of
frontogenetic forcing, pressure couplets, or focusing mechanism,
the atmospheric instability in eastern Vermont may be enough to
produce a snow squall.
Previous discussion...
Lake effect snow continues across the Adirondacks with a few pieces
breaking off into northern Vermont. The heaviest activity is
beginning to shift southward ahead of a mid-level trough. Low-level
flow remains west-southwest, and mid-level trough is occasionally
sparking a few showers on the north side of the lake effect band. So
there`s probably about 1-2 more hours of shower activity from
that. Thus, the product end time has been shifted towards 10 AM
and may be concluded even sooner depending on how lake effect
showers develop with the trough passage. The band should be
long enough that south-central Vermont will see some snow
showers this morning as well, potentially picking up a quick 1"
or so of snow. Beyond sunrise, west-northwest flow will become
established, and upslope flow will begin as the base of the
upper trough feature moves across the.
Low-level conditions will be rather unstable beneath the upper
trough, today. Although surface boundaries will be passing east of
Vermont, residual boundaries from lake effect across eastern Vermont
and about 100 J/kg of CAPE should initiate convective snow showers
in eastern Vermont while everyone else has more orographic activity.
A few snow showers could be moderate to locally heavy at times with
gusts of 20 to 30 mph. With the cool weather and breezy conditions,
coats will be wanted.
Snow showers will taper towards the higher peaks as dry air
gradually fills in and Saturday will be cool with mid 20s to mid
30s, but thankfully decreasing winds. Overall, Saturday will be the
quietest day for the weekend.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 138 AM EST Friday...Saturday night will sink down into the
teens to mid 20s. A warm front will approach from the west. Better
forcing associate with the jet streak will be north of the
international border, and increasing southerly flow in the mid-
levels will result in terrain shadowing. We`ll also have some dry
air on the western periphery of surface high pressure shifting
offshore. During the day, the jet streak will translate northeast,
and a surface low will try to get started on the US East Coast. Warm
air behind the warm front will result in temperatures climbing to
near 40 in the lower elevations. But with very progressive flow,
it`ll be well north of Maine before maturing. Nevertheless, a mix of
valley rain and snow above 1200 ft agl will spread over Vermont
during the day on Sunday.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 138 AM EST Friday...An active weather pattern will continue
through next week, with several chances for precipitation along with
colder temperatures. Monday will be fairly quiet to start the week
with just a few lingering upslope showers expected earlier in the
day before a brief period of high pressure builds in, allowing for
drier and cold conditions, with high temperatures in the 20s and
30s. Overnight lows Monday will likely drop into the teens and
single digits under ideal radiational cooling.
The next system will impact the region late Tuesday into Wednesday,
likely bringing some widespread snowfall to the region. There still
remains plenty of uncertainty with this system, as any shifts in the
low track and the overall can greatly change the impacts expected.
There continues to growing consensus amongst global deterministic of
this system bringing widespread snow across our forecast area, with
potential for some mixed precipitation likely staying to our south.
The latest NBM shows a 25% to 50% chance of 24-hour snowfall amounts
exceeding 4 inches, with the highest probabilities across south-
central Vermont. As previously stated, trends with this system will
need to be monitored as we get closer, so stay tuned. After this
system exits the region, additional chances for precipitation are
expected towards Thursday as a cold front crosses the region.
Temperatures throughout the week will be on the cold side, with
highs in the 20s and 30s and overnight lows generally in the teens
to low 20s.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Through 12Z Saturday...VFR conditions currently prevail across
the region this morning, although some MVFR ceilings have been
seen at KSLK. Snow showers continue across the region this
morning, with additional showers possible as the day progresses.
The exact location and timing of any showers will be nearly
impossible, but some brief reductions to MVFR and IFR will be
possible within any showers that pass overhead. Winds are
generally out of the southwest at 7 to 12 knots, with occasional
gusts up to 20 knots. Winds will gradually become more westerly
as the day progress, staying breezy throughout the forecast
period.
Outlook...
Saturday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Saturday Night: VFR. Chance SN.
Sunday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR and IFR possible. Definite
SN, Definite RA.
Sunday Night: Mainly MVFR and IFR, with areas VFR possible.
Likely RA, Definite SN, Chance SHSN.
Monday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. NO SIG WX.
Monday Night: VFR. Slight chance SN.
Tuesday: Mainly MVFR, with local VFR possible. Chance SN.
&&
.MARINE...
South winds remain elevated near 15 to 25 knots over Lake
Champlain. Although winds will transition to west-northwest and
then northwesterly, wind speeds will remain elevated for the
next 24 hours or so. Waves will likely remain about 2 to 4
feet.
&&
.EQUIPMENT...
NOAA Weather Radio station WXM-44, transmitting from Mt.
Ascutney, Vermont, on frequency 162.475 MHz is non-operational
at this time. NWS technicians have diagnosed the problem, but
repairs will likely not be able to occur for quite some time due
to circumstances beyond our control. Therefore, the time of
return to service is currently unknown. The following NOAA
Weather Radio transmitters may be able to provide service during
this outage: WWG 50 from Burke Mtn, VT at 162.425 MHz and WNG
546 from Hanover, NH at 162.525 MHz.
Equipment malfunctions at Colchester Reef will likely leave it
inoperable for an extended period of time. This site is not
serviced by the NWS. Its technicians currently do not have an
estimated return to service time. Use extra caution when
navigating the broad waters of Lake Champlain, and please
contact us if you observe winds significantly deviating from the
forecast.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Haynes
NEAR TERM...Haynes
SHORT TERM...Haynes
LONG TERM...Kremer
AVIATION...Kremer
MARINE...Team BTV
EQUIPMENT...Team BTV
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