273
FXUS61 KBTV 040002
AFDBTV
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
702 PM EST Tue Feb 3 2026
.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
As of 152 PM EST Tuesday...No significant changes.
&&
.KEY MESSAGES...
As of 152 PM EST Tuesday...
1. Occasional snow showers prevail through Wednesday morning,
which could produce locally hazardous travel conditions during the
Weds morning commute, including for portions of the Champlain
Valley.
2. Hazardous travel is possible late Friday and Friday night
due to overspreading snow showers.
3. Dangerously cold conditions are likely this weekend from
Friday night through early next week, with wind chills of -20F to -
50F likely. Risk of hypothermia and frostbite will be unusually high
due to the extreme nature of the cold, especially for vulnerable
populations and anyone venturing outdoors without proper cold
weather gear.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
As of 152 PM EST Tuesday...
KEY MESSAGE 1: GOES-19 mid level water vapor imagery shows
compact and closed cyclonic circulation just north of Lake Huron
this aftn with some disorganized snow showers over the
central/eastern Great Lakes into northern NY. This potent
northern stream s/w energy has limited deep layer moisture to
work with as pw values are in the 0.10" to 0.20" range, but
dynamics/forcing is good. This compact center is progged to move
along the International Border overnight and exit the NEK of VT
by 15z Weds. Have placed 40-60% pops acrs northern NY into
northern VT, with highest values in the mtns into the northern
CPV. Its interesting to note that both the NAM 3KM and HRRR 12z
shows an enhance pocket of higher composite reflectivity over
the northern CPV around 12z Weds, associated with northerly
convergence and Froude # of <0.50. This could produce locally
hazardous travel acrs the CPV, including the BTV area on Weds
morning. Its not about the amount of snow, but the poor timing
of snow. Snow squall parameter is low with values <1.0, as
instability is weak with sfc based CAPE values <50 J/kg, so
expecting just snow showers. Accumulations will range from a
dusting to an inch or two by midday Weds.
Additional snow showers are likely again on Weds night into Thurs
with more s/w energy and passage of another weak sfc trof. Once
again the highest pops/qpf and snowfall wl be acrs the northern
Dacks into the northern/central Green Mountains. Temps are generally
at or below normal thru the period with the coldest values possible
on Friday morning, where lows could be below zero (0 to -15F) in
many locations. Lows generally 5 to 15F tonight and Weds night and
highs 15 to 25F, but if more clearing and light winds develop,
localized areas below zero are possible.
KEY MESSAGE 2: Widespread snow showers are expected Friday afternoon
into Saturday morning as a clipper low pressure system slides across
the area. Snow showers will become more likely in the evening and
overnight as 850mb frontogenesis moves into northern New York. This
area of frontogenesis is associated with a strong Arctic cold front
which will bring some low-level convergence and forcing. However,
given the overnight timing beyond typical diurnal heating,
instability will be limited. Thus, while the probability of snow
squalls remains, we currently do not expected widespread of heavy
snow as the front crosses the region. Regardless, snow-liquid ratios
will be high given how cold it will be, resulting in fairly light
and fluffy snow. There is still some uncertainty with snow amounts
given the timing and scattered expected nature, however, there is a
30-40% chance of 3" or more inches of snow across Vermont, with
slightly higher probabilities of 40-60% across northern New York.
Given this, amounts between 1-3" are favored with locally higher
across the western slopes of the Greens and Adirondacks. Dewpoints
will fall rapidly behind the front, drying out the air column of the
system, so expected snow to come to a quick end early Saturday,
lingering the longest in the northern Greens.
KEY MESSAGE 3: Very dangerous cold conditions will follow an
Arctic cold front Friday night, with wind chills of -20F to -40F
areawide. This cold air mass will be even colder than the
extreme cold we experienced before our last winter storm as the
wind direction will be northerly instead of a surface south
wind. The risk of hypothermia and frostbite will be unusually
high to within 10 minutes. This is especially true for
vulnerable populations and anyone venturing outdoors without
proper cold weather gear. Extreme Cold Warnings are likely for
this weekend for majority, it not all of the area.
Temperatures will fall sharply Friday night from near 20 to the
single digits above and below zero by sunrise. Parts of the
Adirondacks could even fall into the low negative teens. Strong caa
from the north/northwest will keep funneling arctic cold air from
northern Canada into the region through the entire weekend and
likely into early next week. Given the deeper snowpack as compared
to the last cold, with most region lakes well iced over, confidence
is high in this being the coldest stretch of the season. An
additional danger will be how prolonged this stretch of cold will be
with below zero air temperatures beginning Friday night, and for
most areas outside the immediate area around Lake Champlain, not
rising above 0 until at least Monday morning. Furthermore, with Lake
Champlain near closure due to ice coverage, temperatures may even be
overdone for places like Burlington and Plattsburgh as cold air from
the lake ice creates a sink for colder air. Probabilities of BTV
staying under 0F through the weekend are 30-40%, with most of New
York and the Northeast Kingdom near 80-90%. Mountain sites will
likely be even colder with 850mb temperatures with this air mass
nearing record levels. The nearest observed 850mb record
temperature, observed at KALB is -24C, and we will certainly be
nearing that this weekend with model progs between -28C to -30C.
The coldest wind chills will be overnight, particularly Saturday and
Sunday Night as gusts could reach up to 20 to 30 kts Saturday
afternoon into Saturday night. Considerable caa aloft will help
steepen lapse rates, and increase mixing keeping winds gusty through
the weekend. These gusts will significantly reduce wind chills,
particularly across the higher terrain. Very little relief looks
apparent in the long term, with temperatures only gradually
returning to the teens and low 20s by Tuesday. Needless to say,
these conditions will be very dangerous for anyone outdoors,
especially if they are not dressed for the conditions. Anyone with
outdoor plans next weekend should keep a close eye on future
forecasts and remain alert for any future cold
watches/warnings/advisories.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Through 00Z Wednesday...A compact upper level low has begun to
spread snow showers into northern New York, resulting in IFR
conditions at MSS and MVFR conditions at SLK. These conditions
will be fairly consistent through the next few hours; despite
the low pressure area`s eastward movement, the lack of moisture
downstream, especially in southern portions of the airspace,
will limit chances for snow at other sites. Still looks like
BTV, EFK, and MPV will have a period of at least intermittent
IFR light snow primarily in the 08Z to 14Z period; blocked
northwesterly flow particularly favors BTV, although the exact
timing is uncertain. Also uncertain is any precipitation
earlier on with the weak warm air advection ahead of the frontal
passage; there remains a low chance of snow showers at most
sites in the 02Z - 08Z period as light returns on radar
currently may increase enough to see snow reach the surface at
times.
Winds through much of the period will be light and variable.
While a wind shift to west/northwesterly winds will occur in the
09Z-13Z timeframe, even during the afternoon magnitudes look
relatively light, mainly 5-8 knots, due to unimpressive wind
fields aloft.
Outlook...
Wednesday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHSN.
Thursday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Thursday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Friday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHSN.
Friday Night: Mainly MVFR and IFR, with areas VFR possible.
Definite SN, Likely SHSN.
Saturday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance SHSN.
Saturday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Sunday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
&&
.EQUIPMENT...
NOAA Weather Radio station WXM-44, transmitting from Mt.
Ascutney, Vermont, on frequency 162.475 MHz is non- operational
at this time. NWS technicians have diagnosed the problem, but
repairs will likely not be able to occur for quite some time due
to circumstances beyond our control. Therefore, the time of
return to service is currently unknown. The following NOAA
Weather Radio transmitters may be able to provide service during
this outage: WWG 50 from Burke Mtn, VT at 162.425 MHz and WNG
546 from Hanover, NH at 162.525 MHz.
The Colchester Reef meteorological station is out of service.
This site is not serviced by the NWS and there isn`t an
estimated return to service at present. Use extra caution when
navigating the broad waters of Lake Champlain. Please contact us
if you observe winds significantly deviating from the
recreational forecast.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.
&&
$$
WHAT HAS CHANGED...Taber
DISCUSSION...Danzig/Taber
AVIATION...Kutikoff
EQUIPMENT...NWS BTV
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