219
FXUS61 KBTV 271821
AFDBTV
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
221 PM EDT Wed May 27 2026
.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
As of 220 PM EDT Wednesday...
No significant changes were made to the forecast.
&&
.KEY MESSAGES...
As of 220 PM EDT Wednesday...
1. Trending seasonably cool and showery towards the end of the
week.
2. Cold and wet conditions will be the start to the weekend.
3. Generally unsettled with chances for showers most days in
the long term, but no hazardous weather expected.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
As of 220 PM EDT Wednesday...
KEY MESSAGE 1: A moisture starved cold front is shifting south through
the region this afternoon evident on current satellite with
associated fair weather cumulus streaks. Mid to upper level dry air
from the southwest will limit any shower activity this afternoon. An
isolated shower cannot be completely ruled out tonight, mainly
across the Northeast Kingdom and near the International Border,
however, a lack of true convergence, weak forcing, and entrenched
mid level dry air will cause any shower initiation to struggle.
Temperatures will trend cooler behind the front with seasonably cool
overnight lows in the upper 40s to low to mid 50s tonight. Winds
will shift to the north tomorrow with cooler air remaining in place
as highs will be in the 60s. Cooling aloft with some diurnal surface
heating may lead to some weak instability capable of producing some
isolated to scattered showers Thursday. Showers will be more
confined to the higher terrain of the Adirondacks and more so the
northern Green Mountains and Northeast Kingdom, with only light
accumulations expected under any isolated showers. North winds will
keep Thursday night into Friday on the cool side with temperatures
in the upper 50s to low 60s ahead of our next system late Friday.
KEY MESSAGE 2: A deep upper low will become blocked across the Canadian
Maritimes Friday with low 500mb height anomalies will be overhead
Saturday. Notably, this closed low originates well north of the
Hudson Bay with temperatures resembling that of early to mid spring
or mid to late fall, rather than the end of May/early June. 850mb
and 925mb temperatures will be in the 10th percentile with near
freezing and 6C temperatures, respectively. Highs Friday and
Saturday around 10 to 15 degrees below normal as a result, with
values in the low to mid 60s, and lows in the low to mid 40s.
Overnight lows may be slightly warmer across the St. Lawrence and
Champlain Valleys due to water temperatures helping to moderate air
temperatures.
These lower temperatures will be accompanied by scattered to
widespread instability driven shower and rain activity late Friday
into Saturday. A surface low looks to pass over the Champlain
Valley with overrunning precipitation focused over central and
northeastern Vermont. Rainfall amounts between a quarter of an inch
in the Champlain Valley to half an inch to an inch across the
Northeast Kingdom are possible. Lesser amounts are expected in
northern New York with up to tenth or two of rain, closer to the
International Border and Lake Champlain. The GFS denotes the 540
thickness line will be over the Adirondacks which is uncommon, but
not unheard of for this time of year. As a result, with snow levels
falling to around 4000ft AGL, there is a chance for a dusting of wet
snow atop the summits of the High Peaks of the Adirondacks late
Friday night into early Saturday morning. Friday night into Saturday
unfortunately looks to be raw with the cooling temperatures, rain,
and some breezy conditions to 10 to 15 mph winds. Beyond Saturday
morning, shower activity coverage will decrease from west to east,
with some isolated lingering showers possible near the Connecticut
River with continued cyclonic flow.
KEY MESSAGE 3: Looking into the longer term, our weather pattern will
remain unsettled. Broad cyclonic flow will dominate...kept in place
by a larger scale blocking pattern over the CONUS. As is
typical in these setups, the longer term evolution of the omega
block...and the timing of the eventual pattern shift out of the
block...is notoriously difficult to pinpoint this far out. This
is highlighted by increasing model spread over the northeastern
US amongst ensemble solutions. What is more certain however,
will be that general troughiness will dominate at least through
early next week, resulting in chances for showers with some
embedded thunderstorms each day. Temperatures will remain
slightly below normal to finish out the weekend, but a warming
trend will bring temps to near normal by midweek as the ridge
slowly builds eastward.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Through 18Z Thursday...We are starting off the TAF period with partly
to mostly sunny skies and widespread VFR conditions. However, cloud
cover will increase and bases gradually lower through the night as a
secondary cold front drops southward from the north. Some isolated
showers are possible tonight, mainly along the International Border
between 00Z and 06Z, though have left mention out of TAFs due to low
chances. Visibilities are expected to remain at VFR levels, even
within any showers that may pass through. Ceilings will briefly
lower toward high MVFR levels between 10Z and 14Z, then lift back up
to VFR toward the end of the 24 hour TAF period. Winds will be
from the northwest between 6 and 12 knots this evening, and then
diminish to under 6 knots overnight.
Outlook...
Thursday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Friday: VFR. Chance SHRA.
Friday Night: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. Definite
SHRA.
Saturday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA.
Saturday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Sunday: VFR. Chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA.
Sunday Night: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Slight chance
SHRA.
Monday: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. Slight chance SHRA, Slight
chance TSRA.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.
&&
$$
WHAT HAS CHANGED...Danzig
DISCUSSION...Danzig/Duell
AVIATION...Duell
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