FXUS61 KBTV 212333
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
733 PM EDT Sun Oct 21 2018
Northwest flow aloft will remain in place over the region
tonight and bring unseasonably cold air to the North Country.
Lows will be in the 20s to lower 30s. Unsettled weather is
expected for the upcoming work week with lake effect showers
moving into the area on Monday followed by a trough of low
pressure Tuesday into Wednesday that will bring more widespread
showers to the region. Below normal temperatures will continue
through much of the upcoming week as well.
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
As of 724 PM EDT Sunday...No changes to current forecast as
winds are slowly abating and temperatures are starting to cool,
reflecting that. In addition, some partial clearing of
stratocumulus layer and looking upstream this trendshould
continue as well.
Previous discussion...Northwest flow aloft has contributed
to plenty of cloud cover, snow showers, and temperatures well
below normal. In fact most locations only saw high temperatures
generally in the 30s. The upslope snow showers will ending by
early evening and we will thin out a bit of the cloud cover
allow for the temperatures to fall into the 20s to lower 30s.
Looking at 28-32 degree temperatures for the entire Champlain
Valley of New York and Vermont and thus have issued a Freeze
Warning for this area from 2:00 am to 8:00 am as the growing
season does not end until October 25th. Winds will stay gusty
this evening and will taper off a bit after midnight. High
pressure is centered to our south and with a shortwave trough
moving across Canada tonight bringing some mid level clouds to
the area its not your typical clear skies and light wind event
to lower temperatures below freezing. The air mass advecting in
is cold enough for temperatures to fall below freezing most
The flow in the low and mid levels will turn to the southwest on
Monday and with colder 850 mb air moving over the warmer waters of
Lake Ontario we should see some lake effect showers develop and move
into northern New York during the afternoon hours on Monday and then
across northern New York and northern Vermont Monday night as
southwest flow aloft continues. The southwest flow will bring a
return of warmer air to the area...but will still be a little below
normal with highs in the 40s on Monday and lows in the 30s Monday
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 358 PM EDT Sunday...A fairly strong upper level trough
will be pushing through the North Country on Tuesday which
should lead to widespread rain and mountain snow showers across
the region. Its a tricky forecast as most of the region will see
a warm nose push in during the afternoon and its not until late
Tuesday evening that the column becomes cold enough to support
snow everywhere. By this time the RH will have lifted north and
so even with the favoured northwest wind it will be a challenge
to see much snowfall across the region. Snow levels will be
around 2500 feet so in elevations above 2500-3000 feet we`ll
probably see snow most of the time but the bulk of the RH aloft
is still below the favoured snow growth zone. So we`ll likely
see snow but most likely on the order of 1-3 inches in the
higher terrain. Down in the valleys we may see some flurries but
I dont expect any accumulation.
Wednesday the cold air continues to be pumped into the North Country
from the northwest but will little in the way of support or RH I
think we`ll be looking at a quiet day with persistent stratocu and
temps in the 40s. Wednesday evening the ridge will start to build
into the region and temps will once again drop into the upper 20s to
low 30s depending on cloud cover.
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 358 PM EDT Sunday...The extended is largely characterized
as seasonably cold with daily scattered mountain snow showers
possible under northwest flow. At the surface we`ll have high
pressure building with an upper level trough displaced to the
east. This will create seasonably chilly conditions with a
chance on Wednesday of not warming out of the 30s across the
North Country. More Fall-like temps will be on the way however
as the upper level trough weakens and an upper level ridge
builds in heading into the weekend. The weekend is our best
chance to see normal temps as the ensemble means for the last
couple of runs are pointing to continued cold air over New
England with the next warm up possible not until November.
.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Through 18Z Monday...Still quite a bit of cloud cover between
4000-6000 feet over the area with northwest flow aloft but
cloud cover is slowly clearing and will continue overnight per
upstream satellite. some mid-level clouds will drift SE across
NY overnight. Eventually flow becomes more SW and clouds will
continue to increase,thicken and lower back to 4000-6000f eet
on Monday with a slight chance of a shower late. Visibilities
The brisk, gusty west to northwest winds of earlier already
abating and will taper off into the 5 to 10 knot range by about
06z. Eventually the winds will become more southwest and south
after 14z...but at speeds generally under 10 knots.
Monday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA, Slight chance SHSN.
Tuesday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA.
Tuesday Night: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Chance SHRA.
Wednesday: Mainly MVFR, with local VFR possible. Chance SHRA,
Wednesday Night: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Chance
Thursday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Slight chance
Thursday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHSN.
Friday: VFR. Slight chance SHSN.
Northwest winds of 15 to 30 knots have decrased below Lake Wind
advisory criteria and this trend will continue, thus the
Advisory has been canceled.
VT...Freeze Warning from 2 AM to 8 AM EDT Monday for VTZ001-002-005-
NY...Freeze Warning from 2 AM to 8 AM EDT Monday for NYZ028-035.