521
FXUS61 KBTV 152320
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
720 PM EDT Wed Oct 15 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Through Thursday, brisk northerly flow will continue as the
region stays sandwiched between high pressure to the west and a
low pressure system slow to depart to our east. As lower
humidity coincides with gustier winds during the daytime hours,
fire weather concerns will increase. A period of lighter winds
and moderating temperatures Friday into Saturday will be
followed by sharp warming and south winds on Sunday ahead of our
next chance for widespread rain by Monday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
As of 255 PM EDT Wednesday...Surface analysis shows a 1030
millibar high pressure area near Lake Huron and a 1007 millibar
low pressure system over far southeastern Canada. The upper
level features tied to that low pressure area will be digging
southward through tonight, transitioning into a closed low that
will be slow to depart. As such, we will be in a stuck pattern
through Thursday night before the system eventually escapes to
the southeast, allowing high pressure to build in from the west.


As far as sensible weather, clear skies are favored in New York,
while a period of increased clouds late tonight into tomorrow
will develop in portions of Vermont. Notably, downwind/south-
southeast of Lake Champlain a moderate lake to air temperature
difference could support a shallow layer of low clouds for the
morning hours. Otherwise, skies should trend sunny with fire
weather concerns prevalent, particularly where 850 millibar
winds, or roughly the top of the boundary layer, will be highest
during the midday hours. A Special Weather Statement has been
issued for the central/southern portions of our region
coinciding with this risk of frequent wind gusts above 25 MPH.

Temperatures will remain cooler than normal by about 4 to 8
degrees, but the breezy pattern both tonight and tomorrow night
will limit low temperatures compared to what would occur with
good radiational cooling. That being said, tomorrow night as the
gradient relaxes a bit we could see localized frost away from
the immediate shores of Lake Champlain develop. Confidence in
frost development is too low to indicate at this time, but this
part of the forecast area is the only one in which the
frost/freeze program remains in effect.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
As of 255 PM EDT Wednesday...Quiet weather is expected as a
weakening area of high pressure builds into the area and the air
mass modifies somewhat. Winds will remain northerly but much
lighter with reduced mixing. This pattern should mute the
warming with regards to high temperatures, which will remain on
the cool side of normal. Abundant sunshine is expected, but with
light winds fire weather concerns will be minimal. Temperatures
Friday night also will be seasonably cool in the mid 20s to mid
30s for most spots, or a few degrees higher than Thursday
night.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 129 PM EDT Wednesday...Dry conditions and light southerly
flow linger Saturday with temperatures mainly in the upper
50s/low 60s under departing high pressure. Conditions begin to
change Saturday night with southerly flow increasing aloft as
high pressure translates eastward. This will be most noticeably
along the shores of Lake Champlain where warmer lake waters will
help keep low levels mixed. Model guidance suggests a few
sprinkles edging into the St Lawrence Valley, but this could
hold off depending on how fast high pressure exits.

The long wave is expected to amplify Sunday with a strengthening
low pressure system moving into the Great Lakes region while
high pressure slowly departs. The result will be for continued
increases in southerly flow and potential for showers to begin
moving into northern New York. By Sunday night into Monday,
chances of rain showers will likely increase west to east with
low pressure favored to move northwest of northern New York and
Vermont through southern Canada while occluding; potential for
southern stream energy remains, and is present in model
consensus to support continued formation of a southern low that
could wrap moisture across Vermont/northern New York. This
position and transition favors a faster surface front initially
with continued southerly/southeasterly flow through Monday. As
the upper level low tracks eastward Tuesday, the wave may begin
to open up as another system approaches pulling more moisture
back over the region. This points to an extended period of
precipitation chances with beneficial rainfall at this time.
Focus of precipitation in the extended period may be directed
more southeast to northwest dependent on how far south southern
stream energy dips and whether the subsequent front catches up
and can pull offshore moisture back over the region.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Through 00Z Friday...VFR condidtions should persist at all terminals
for the next 24 hours. The only possible exceptions are EFK and MPV
where there is maybe around a 20 percent chance of MVFR ceilings for
a period early tomorrow morning. Winds will generally be northerly
to northwesterly during this time frame. They should be around and
under 10 KTs tonight before gusting in the 10-20 KT range tomorrow.
Gusts up to 25 KTs are possible at BTV and PBG.

Outlook...

Thursday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Friday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Friday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Saturday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Saturday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
Sunday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
Sunday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance SHRA.
Monday: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. Likely SHRA.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Kutikoff
NEAR TERM...Kutikoff
SHORT TERM...Kutikoff
LONG TERM...Boyd
AVIATION...Myskowski