093
FXUS61 KBTV 211734
AFDBTV
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
134 PM EDT Tue Oct 21 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
Rain will taper off towards the international border as low pressure
shifts away. Seasonable weather conditions in the upper 50s to lower
60s are expected today with breezy southwest to west winds. A large
upper low will set up across the Great Lakes region, with renewed
chances for rain for the middle to latter half of the week. Dry
surface high pressure will begin to build during early next
week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 223 AM EDT Tuesday...Surface observations place low pressure
just southeast of Montreal and radar suggests the mid-level
circulation resides somewhere near Highgate as of 2 AM. Beneficial
soaking rains has produced 0.50- 1.00" across Vermont and northern
New York and 1.50-2.50" along Greens, the northern Champlain Valley,
and northern slopes of the Adirondacks. Embedded in western slopes
of the Greens, a few sites are reporting observations as high as
~3.50" of rain in the last 24 hours. Plattsburgh has also observed a
daily record for rain for October 20th. Before low pressure shuffles
off to the northeast this morning, we could receive another few
hundredths in areas sheltered from northwest flow, but about
0.10-0.50" for most everyone else, especially northwest slopes.
Conditions will trend cooler as the upper low settles overhead and
atmospheric thicknesses decrease. Seasonable temperatures are
expected in west-southwest flow. Clouds will clear out as well for a
small portion of the day. Another upper low will begin approaching
tonight, and so rain chances will increase again heading into
Wednesday. Instability will also be present on the order of 200-400
J/kg of CAPE. With cool temperatures aloft and modest synoptic
forcing for ascent, we could see some rumbles of thunder again
during the day on Wednesday as rain showers lift north. Eastern
Vermont has the highest chances for rain as secondary low pressure
along Vermont will favor a surge of rain moving up the Connecticut
River. This system will not have the deep, anomalous moisture plume
as this last event, nor will surface low pressure linger as long. So
precipitation amounts will be more in the realm of 0.10-0.50"
Wednesday.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 223 AM EDT Tuesday...The core of the upper low will sit
overhead by Thursday with sub-540 thicknesses for 1000-500mb.
Temperatures will cool to the mid 40s to mid 50s on Thursday
down to the freezing mark at summit levels. Forecast trends for
snow levels have come up, but at about 3700-4000 ft elevation,
our summits are still in line to observe their first
accumulating snow of the season while lower elevations have a
cool, showery day.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 223 AM EDT Tuesday...A deep trough will build into the region
going into the end of the week. A few shortwaves will bring more
organized precipitation at times, but the overall general trend will
be toward drier conditions. Despite the duration, amounts will be
relatively light. Persistent cyclonic westerly flow will favor the
upslope areas, but current NBM probabilities of more than a quarter
inch are only around 25 percent there. Forecast 925 millibar temps
near and slightly above freezing should cause the snow levels to
sink into the 3,000-4,000 range for Friday night. Soundings
generally indicate they could drop a bit lower. Some ADK towns could
obtain their first flakes of the year. This trough looks to be the
beginning of a more seasonable stretch. Afterwards a very strong
surface high builds into the region for the end of the weekend and
start of next week. Ridging should dominate and the next storm
system does not look to arrive until late week.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Through 18Z Wednesday...Conditions are improving to VFR at all
sites this aftn, other than lingering MVFR cigs at EFK which
will improve by 20z. Aviation challenge is timing of rain
showers over the next 12 to 24 hours as multiple rounds of
showers impact the area. These showers will contain mostly VFR
flight conditions with some intervals of MVFR vis possible in
the heavier elements. Eventually as winds slowly shift to the
southwest, expect MVFR cigs to develop at our mountain sites
after midnight tonight. Best potential for MVFR cigs will be at
SLK/MPV and EFK with a 20 to 25% of brief IFR cigs possible.
Rest of our taf sites should stay primarily VFR. Winds will be
southwest 10 to 15 knots with localized gusts up to 20 knots
possible, before becoming light overnight and increasing again
from the southwest on Weds.
Outlook...
Wednesday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance
SHRA.
Thursday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Definite SHRA.
Thursday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance
SHRA.
Friday: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. Chance SHRA.
Friday Night: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. Slight chance
SHRA, Slight chance SHSN.
Saturday: VFR/MVFR conditions possible. Slight chance SHRA.
Saturday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. NO SIG WX.
Sunday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. NO SIG WX.
&&
.EQUIPMENT...
The TYX radar is down until further notice after a hardware
failure occurred. Replacement parts have been ordered and will
be installed. There is no ETA on its return to service.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Haynes
NEAR TERM...Haynes
SHORT TERM...Haynes
LONG TERM...Myskowski
AVIATION...Taber
EQUIPMENT...BTV
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