501
FXUS61 KBTV 170652
AFDBTV
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
252 AM EDT Tue Mar 17 2026
.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
As of 249 AM EDT Tuesday...
The forecast is on track this morning with gusty winds moving along
and behind a passing frontal boundary. Concerns for localized slick
driving conditions remain as temperatures crash behind the front
resulting in a period of light accumulating snowfall.
&&
.KEY MESSAGES...
As of 249 AM EDT Tuesday...
1. High Wind Warnings and Wind Advisories continue early this
morning as a strong cold front moves through the region. Isolated to
scattered power outages are possible.
2. Temperatures are crashing behind the front with areas of
snow developing. Snowfall will continue until a post frontal trough
passes late this morning. Slick travel conditions may impact the
morning commute today.
3. Rivers are responding to yesterday`s and this morning`s
rainfall. While rises are occurring, flooding in not expected at
this time.
4. Unsettled but low-impact weather through the weekend.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
As of 249 AM EDT Tuesday...
KEY MESSAGE 1: A strong cold front is tracking west to east across the
region bringing strong gusts ranging 40 to 55 mph according to
automated weather sensors. Strongest gusts have occurred in northern
New York and along the Lake Champlain shores. Mid slopes and ridges
will also experience strong gusts with potential for power outages
as limbs or a few trees fall over wires. Moderate rainfall has been
reported as well and could soften the ground increasing
susceptibility of trees being blown over by winds. Strongest winds
will exit by sunrise, but westerly flow component will continue to
be robust until, especially along Highway 11 in northern New York
and downslope areas of Adirondacks, as a post frontal trough moves
through the late morning hours.
KEY MESSAGE 2: Temperatures are rapidly dropping, in excess of 20
degrees per hour in some instances, as the cold front moves through.
Precipitation is quickly changing to snow behind the cold front.
While rain and thermal inertia will keep the worst at bay for
Vermont, some slick driving conditions will be possible this
morning. This will be especially true for elevated roadways like
bridges and overpasses. Snowfall amounts are expected to be fairly
trivial, but may combine with some freezing puddles on surfaces
resulting in ice.
KEY MESSAGE 3: Warm temperatures and rainfall yesterday promoted river
rises on main stem rivers. Generally, 0.2 to 0.5 inches occurred
with an additional 0.1 to 0.5 inches occurring early this morning as
a cold front swept through.
Sharpest rises have been in the last three hours along the Ausable
River at Ausable Forks with potential for reaching near bankful in
the next three hours. Fortunately for river conditions, temperatures
are falling sharply and will eliminate further contributions of
snowmelt. Other locations that will approach bankful include the
Otter Creek at Rutland and portions of the Raquette River. Ice
movement will still need to be monitored, but most ice has already
been flushed out.
KEY MESSAGE 4: Progressive northwesterly flow aloft will continue
through the weekend as a series of low amplitude shortwaves move
through. These shortwaves will bring multiple periods of
precipitation to the area. Notable timing differences remain,
however, between different models as the shortwaves are not yet
adequately sampled by the upper air network. More details will
emerge over the coming days on specific windows for highest
precipitation chances, but for now have stuck with chances of
precipitation (generally 30 to 55%) for the end of the week into the
weekend. With modest synoptic forcing and lack of any deep
cyclogenesis, none of these systems through the end of the weekend
are expected to be high-impact. Temperatures will hover near
climatological normals through the weekend.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Through 06Z Wednesday...High Wind Warnings and Wind Advisories
continue through Tuesday as additional rounds of gusty winds
will be possible associated with a strong cold front and
additional rain pushing through the region. Sharply colder
temperatures will also arrive tonight, with light snowfall
accumulations possible. Some lake effect snow will be possible
across northern New York during the day Tuesday.
Multiple aviation hazards expected through much of this TAF
period. Southerly winds are currently gusting 15-35 knots at
all sites, and we anticipate these gusty winds to continue and
increase into the overnight period. Wind gusts 25-45 knots out
of the south and southwest are expected from 00Z-09Z Tuesday,
then several sites could see another resurgence of winds
12Z-18Z Tuesday, particularly at KMSS (gusts 40-45 knots) where
southwesterly winds will be easily channeled through the St.
Lawrence Valley. Gusts look to remain 20+ knots for all sites
through 00Z Wednesday, gradually turning more westerly with the
passage of a cold frontal boundary. LLWS also remains a threat
for most sites through about 06Z-12Z Tuesday, perhaps lingering
at SLK even longer.
Widespread rain showers will move spread northeastward across
the region this evening. Generally anticipate visibility 3-5
miles in rain, which may be heavy at times. Temperatures fall
sharply overnight with the cold frontal passage. Rain will
transition to snow for many sites over the next few hours, with
some sleet and/or freezing rain briefly mixing in during the
transition. Snow will wind down quickly by daybreak Tuesday, but
a couple of lake effect streamers may bring additional snow to
mainly KSLK and perhaps KMSS during the day Tuesday. Visibility
2-4 miles in any snow. Ceilings currently a mix of VFR and MVFR
(except for MPV which has ceilings 500-700 feet above ground
level) will likely lower to all MVFR by around 03Z-06Z Tuesday,
then improve to VFR around 09Z-12Z Tuesday, though some of the
mountain sites could hold onto lower ceilings longer. Most
likely location (other than MPV) of some IFR level ceilings
will be at SLK which could see occasional dips to IFR cigs in
rain showers over the next few hours.
Outlook...
Wednesday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Thursday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA,
Chance SHSN.
Thursday Night: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. Chance SN,
Chance RA.
Friday: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Chance RA, Chance
SN.
Friday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SN.
Saturday: VFR. Chance SN, Chance RA.
&&
.CLIMATE...
A daily record high temperature was set at KMSS (Massena, NY)
on March 16th. The high temperature was 68 degrees beating the
previous record of 65 set just last year.
&&
.EQUIPMENT...
The Colchester Reef meteorological station is out of service.
This site is not serviced by the NWS and there isn`t an
estimated return to service at present. Please contact us if you
observe winds significantly deviating from the recreational
forecast.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...Wind Advisory until 11 AM EDT this morning for VTZ001>011-
016>021.
NY...Wind Advisory until 11 AM EDT this morning for NYZ026-028-029-
035-087.
High Wind Warning until 11 AM EDT this morning for NYZ027-030-
031-034.
&&
$$
WHAT HAS CHANGED...Boyd
DISCUSSION...Boyd/Duell
AVIATION...Duell
CLIMATE...NWS BTV
EQUIPMENT...NWS BTV
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