323
FXUS61 KBTV 252348
AFDBTV
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
748 PM EDT Wed Mar 25 2026
.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
As of 231 PM EDT Wednesday...
No significant changes from the previous forecast.
&&
.KEY MESSAGES...
As of 231 PM EDT Wednesday...
1. Light wintry mix tonight into Thursday morning.
2. Rain Thursday evening into the overnight, changing to snow
early Friday morning.
3. Becoming warmer with the train of weather systems likely to
continue next week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
As of 231 PM EDT Wednesday...
KEY MESSAGE 1: A stationary front draped across the forecast
area this afternoon will provide the focus for a wintry mix
tonight as it lifts north as a warm front through Thursday. Weak
shortwave energy and surface low pressure north of Lake
Superior this afternoon will track west to east along the front
tonight into Thursday morning with low/mid-level thermal
profiles generally supporting scattered rain and snow showers as
surface temps range through the 30s. Northeasterly flow,
however, will keep surface temperatures below freezing in
northern St. Lawrence Valley through at least the first half of
the night, and with warming temps aloft this will support some
light freezing rain and a few hundreths of ice accretion there.
Elsewhere snow showers shouldn`t amount to much near the surface
with warm boundary layer temps, but and inch or two is possible
across the high peaks.
KEY MESSAGE 2: The aforementioned warm front continues to move
north to about the international border on Thursday with gusty
southerly winds pushing surface temps into the upper 40s to mid
50s across the region. After morning showers dissipate, the rest
of the daylight hours should be dry before additional shortwave
energy and weak surface low bring another round of
precipitation for the evening and overnight hours. Precipitation
will predominantly be rain through midnight before the front
begins to move back south as a cold front changing rain to snow
at the higher elevations first, then briefly to the valley floor
during the pre-dawn hours before ending by the morning commute.
Much like the previous day, the bulk of snow accumulation will
be across the highest elevations with several inches possible
above 2500 feet, but below that only a dusting to an inch is
likely. Colder and drier weather follows for Friday through
Saturday with highs in the mid-20s to mid-30s and lows Friday
night cold in the single digits to teens above zero.
KEY MESSAGE 3: As has been the case recently, the jet stream
remains very fast in the forecast. Ensembles suggest speeds
across the belt of westerlies across Canada will remain near to
above the 90th percentile. Several embedded systems will
continue to zip along this express without a real connection to
deep, tropical moisture. It does appear towards the back half of
next week that the persistently fast flow will break down. So a
pattern change is possible next weekend.
Looking at Sunday, the axis of a 500mb trough will slide east
with a near 1040mb high settling across the Mid-Atlantic.
Weather conditions will probably be beautiful with sunshine and
seasonably cool conditions in the mid 30s to mid 40s. A surface
low with marginal moisture will track across Quebec Province on
Monday and drag a surface trough with scattered showers through
the area. Tuesday appears the most likely dry day in this
stretch before precipitation chances return. Another warm front
will track across the region Wednesday. As noted above, the
break down of channeled flow will result in a more amplified
wave pattern that will open us up to more moist, southwesterly
flow for the latter half of next week. It appears several
shortwaves will eject northeast into the Northeast ahead of the
main system of interest to track into the area towards next
Friday/Saturday.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Through 00Z Friday...Precipitation will begin moving in from
west to east after 01z, but dry air could result in most radar
returns being virga. Ceilings will gradually fall towards
2500-5000 ft agl approaching 12z Thursday. A brief wintry mix
will be possible at the onset of precipitation, but this will
likely be so short-lived at most spots, the only mention is at
KMSS. There will also be an expanding area of low-level wind
shear as southwest flow at 2000 ft agl increases to 35-45.
Precipitation will exit east of Vermont about 14-15z Thursday.
As that occurs, south to southwest winds will pick up with gusts
15-25 knots possible, especially at KMSS and KBTV. Returning
rain chances are expected after 21z Thursday.
Outlook...
Thursday Night: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Likely RA,
Likely SN, Chance SHSN.
Friday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Friday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Saturday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Saturday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Sunday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Sunday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHSN.
Monday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA.
&&
.EQUIPMENT...
The Colchester Reef meteorological station is out of service.
This site is not serviced by the NWS and there isn`t an
estimated return to service at present. Please contact us if you
observe winds significantly deviating from the recreational
forecast.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.
&&
$$
WHAT HAS CHANGED...Lahiff
DISCUSSION...Lahiff/Haynes
AVIATION...Neiles
EQUIPMENT...NWS BTV
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