855
FXUS61 KBTV 190645
AFDBTV
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
245 AM EDT Sun Apr 19 2026
.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
As of 230 AM EDT Sunday...
Potential for heavy precipitation and moderate to higher
precipitation rates has increased today.
&&
.KEY MESSAGES...
As of 230 AM EDT Sunday...
1. Gusty winds this morning, then widespread rain will change
to snow or rain and snow mix this afternoon. Minor snow
accumulations and slushy, slippery travel is possible throughout
the day today.
2. Unseasonably cold conditions Sunday night into Monday night
will be accompanied by a chance of snow showers, especially Monday
morning. Any standing water could freeze and become black ice
early Monday morning. Cold weather will continue into Tuesday.
3. Temperatures are favored to warm back to seasonal averages
through the week with some potential for showers late next week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
As of 230 AM EDT Sunday...
KEY MESSAGE 1: A large, highly amplified longwave trough is supporting
a large area of precipitation along a slowing cold front that is
crossing the forecast area this morning. Temperatures have fallen 15-
25 degrees since this time yesterday in several locations, and we
anticipate temperatures will continue to fall this morning and into
the afternoon, reaching the 30s (highs of the day have likely
already occurred this morning), well below seasonal averages.
The upper level jet configuration, with jet streaks to our north
and south by midday today, will be favorable for widespread
precipitation behind the surface front. Confidence of
precipitation is high today, though confidence of precipitation
TYPE is a bit more challenging based on the wide spread of
modeled temperatures throughout the day today across northern
New York and Vermont. Highest confidence of snow exists at
higher elevations, which should see a quick changeover to snow
from west (the Adirondacks early morning) to east (Greens later
in the morning). Probability of greater than a tenth of an inch
of snow accumulation increases sharply in the Adirondacks around
8 AM, then in the Greens around 11 AM. Confidence of this same
amount in the St. Lawrence Valley this morning is around 30-40%,
similar in the Champlain Valley around midday where wet bulb
and dynamic cooling may influence temperatures. Confidence is a
little higher in the Stone Valley (Rutland area) and east of the
Green Mountains where colder air is likely to collect. About
85-95% chance of higher than a tenth of an inch in areas east of
the Greens like Newport, the Northeast Kingdom, and
Montpelier/Barre area this afternoon, then 50- 60% chance in
Rutland in the afternoon-evening hours. The Connecticut River
Valley typically holds onto milder temperatures, so
probabilities there are closer to 10-30% this evening. Overall,
snow accumulations are not expected to be extremely impactful or
noteworthy, with perhaps 4-7 inches at the highest elevations
and a dusting to a couple tenths of an inch in valleys. The
ground is starting quite warm, and the sun in April is stronger
than it was just a month ago, so any snow at lower elevations
may not stick or may melt shortly after accumulating. It`ll be
difficult to get a sense of how much snow actually fell in many
spots. The main impacts would be some slushy, slick travel while
snow is actively falling, and this should be a narrow window of
time for most areas where people live and drive. Extra caution
should be used, though, if traveling through mountain passes or
in high elevation areas. Snow may take springtime drivers off
guard, particularly since most cars have removed snow tires at
this point in the season. Precipitation is expected to taper off
tonight as drier air flows in.
KEY MESSAGE 2: Cold air will continue to flow into northern New York
and Vermont Sunday evening and Sunday night, with 850mb temperatures
as low as 12-14 C. By early Monday morning, surface temperatures are
expected to be in the 20s and lower 30s, well below seasonal
averages, which could result in areas of black ice from any
lingering standing water. Another cold front will swing through
the region as well, bringing the potential of some snow showers
back up to around 30-50% Monday morning then decrease throughout
the afternoon. There will be some instability, lingering low
level moisture, and convergence along this front to support at
least some shower activity. Atmosphere will still be fairly dry
Monday, so additional accumulations likely stay minimal. Highs
Monday will likely struggle to reach into the 30s and lower 40s,
quite chilly for this time of year. The coldest night will be
Monday night, when high pressure noses in from the mid- Atlantic
and optimal radiational cooling conditions arrive. Lows are
forecast in the mid teens to mid 20s under clearing skies.
Tuesday we`ll likely have a slight recovery in temperatures as
light south to southwest flow increases again and sunshine
dominates at least the morning hours. Highs could reach into the
40s and lower 50s but remain below typical temperatures for late
April. A backdoor cold front could bring some additional chances
of precipitation Tuesday night, 15-35% chance.
KEY MESSAGE 3: Long wave ridging is expected to displace troughing
through next week, shunting the polar front jet and main storm track
northeastward into eastern Canada. This pattern favors slowly
warming temperatures despite a continued northwest flow pattern.
Highs are projected to warm from low/mid 50s midweek into the 60s
heading into the weekend while lows correspondingly warm from the
30s into the 40s. A weak shortwave may provide some light shower
chances into extreme northeast Vermont Wednesday night from a
transient clipper system, but by and large most of mid to late next
week looks to dry. Models begin to diverge late Friday into the
weekend as the evolution of a large scale upper low over the
Canadian Maritimes develops. A back door cold front may lead to some
shower chances late Friday into Saturday, but shower chances become
uncertain for the remainder of the weekend. The GFS ensembles denote
stronger upper level flow which will kick the system into the
Atlantic, allowing for a connection of a southern stream of energy
with energy from an upper low in central Canada, resulting in a
double barrel like pattern. The Euro ensembles, however, show a more
blocked flow pattern with the Canadian Maritime system poised to
remain stationary this weekend, limiting any moisture advection into
our region, with potentially a drier end to the weekend. The
evolution of this northern Atlantic upper low will set the stage for
our weather pattern this weekend and next week.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Through 06Z Monday...Aviation impacts over the next 6 hours will be
dominated by a slowing cold front over northern New York, with the
proceeding 18 hours becoming more complex with cold air and
precipitation type uncertainty. A line of light showers is currently
stalling around SLK with high MVFR ceilings as the main impact. This
front will slowly drift east towards 10Z for PBG/BTV, where light
5-6SM rain showers are expected. Further east to MPV/EFK, a marine
layer off the Atlantic is advecting low MVFR ceilings which should
continue through the next 6 hours. Winds will also remain gusty
before rain sets in at each terminal. South/southwest winds 10-15
knots with gusts between 20-30 knots (highest at PBG/BTV) will
continue until rainfall begins. MSS sits just west of the boundary
and should trend towards VFR by 08Z, with medium to high confidence
of prevailing VFR through the TAF period. A more challenging
forecast exists beyond 12Z as a reinforcing cold front will
drastically lower temperatures throughout the daytime hours. Cold
air will lead to a mix of rain and snow during the mid to late
morning into this afternoon. Rain changing to snow will begin at SLK
first between 12-13Z, with this snow becoming heavy at times at the
onset, and lightening by 17Z. Precipitation type becomes challenging
at PBG/BTV where temperatures may dynamically cool to allow for some
snow which may lead to IFR visibilities this morning. However, there
is still a chance that precipitation may remain as just moderate
rain which would limit visibilities to MVFR; better guidance will be
provided in the 12Z TAF package. Regardless, rain mixed with snow is
expected at all terminals outside of RUT/MSS, until 20-22Z when the
boundary will clear the region to the east. More scattered rain/snow
showers may be possible this afternoon, drying by tonight with west
winds.
Outlook...
Monday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Monday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHRA, Slight chance SHSN.
Wednesday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Slight chance
SHRA.
Wednesday Night: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. NO SIG WX.
Thursday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.
&&
$$
WHAT HAS CHANGED...Storm
DISCUSSION...Storm/Danzig
AVIATION...Danzig
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