025
FXUS61 KBTV 300720
AFDBTV
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
320 AM EDT Mon Mar 30 2026
.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
As of 319 AM EDT Monday...
Added patchy freezing rain late Tues into Weds and mentioned a
slight chance for thunder Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday night.
&&
.KEY MESSAGES...
As of 319 AM EDT Monday...
1. A challenging temperature forecast and associated impacts on
precipitation type is expected Tuesday into Wednesday.
2. A slight chance of thunderstorms with localized heavy
downpours possible Tues aftn into Tuesday night, which could cause
sharp rises on area streams and rivers.
3. Mixed precipitation possible Thursday night into Friday,
with active weather continuing through the period.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
As of 319 AM EDT Monday...
KEY MESSAGE 1: Sfc analysis places a warm frnt acrs our
northern/central cwa this morning with some virga on radar, as crnt
rh values in the CPV are in the 32% to 40%. A warm southwest flow is
expected today with progged 925mb temps in the 7-10C range, which
with some sunshine should support highs mid 50s to mid 60s acrs our
region. A few localized locations in the lower CT River Valley could
approach 70F. As sfc heating occur our mixing depths wl increase,
resulting in localized wind gusts in the 18-25 knot range.
Tonight into Tues several embedded s/w`s wl pass along near the
International Border as arctic high pres near Hudson Bay tries to
move southward. This wl quickly sharpen a low level thermal boundary
acrs our region on Tuesday into Weds, as shallow cold air on
northerly flow undercuts warming temps aloft. The sharpening
inversion on soundings is extremely impressive with progged 850mb
temps near 12C, while bl temps are in the mid 30s. This complex
thermal setup makes for a very challenging temps/ptype fcst on Tues
into Weds, as bl temps are progged to hover near 0C by late Tues
into Weds acrs the northern CPV and SLV. Have utilized the high res
NAM3KM with Reggie/HRRR to highlight cooler bl thermal profiles on
Tues into Tues night, with cold air draining down the deeper
valleys. On Tues night the higher trrn of the Dacks and
central/southern Greens could see temps in the mid 40s to mid/upper
50s, while northern SLV and northern CPV is in the l/mid 30s with
pockets of freezing rain. Given the warm ground temps, feel any ice
accumulation wl be confined to mostly elevated sfcs with minimal
impacts on roads, especially with marginal air temps near 0C. The
greatest potential for a light glaze to a tenth of an inch or so of
ice accumulation wl be northern SLV and northern CPV, especially
northwest Clinton County.
KEY MESSAGE 2: Several ingredients are present to produce localized
heavy rainfall acrs our region late Tuesday into Weds, where WPC
continues to place our cwa in a marginal risk (5%) of exceeding
flash flooding guidance. Given our recent dry spell and expected qpf
values, think this is a little aggressive but there is a non zero
threat. The ingredients available for producing localized heavy
rainfall include a sharp boundary, pw values near 1.0" or 2 to 3 std
above normal, and modest values of elevated instability. Areas of
rain with embedded heavier downpours with a few rumbles of thunder
are possible late Tues aftn into Tues night. Given the most unstable
CAPE values of 300-700 J/kg, a few rumbles of thunder are possible,
especially northern NY, which could result in localized heavy
downpours. The storm vector analysis suggests some training/back
building of precip, as flow aloft is paralleling the low level
thermal boundary on Tues night. Its extremely difficult to pin point
where the location of the heaviest rainfall wl occur, but greatest
probability at this time would support central NY into the Dacks and
acrs central/southern VT, but this is subject to change with
movement of boundary. A wide range in highs and lows are expected on
Tues and Tues night, with generally cooler weather for Weds.
Additional mixed precip is expected on Weds night into Thurs as
sharp llvl thermal boundary lifts back northward.
KEY MESSAGE 3: A low pressure system will track west of our region on
Friday and bring mixed precipitation and then rain to the north
country. With cold high pressure in place ahead of this system,
biggest threat for some freezing rain will be areas east of the
Greens where there will be some cold air damming on Thursday night
into early Friday. Models continue to show some increased
for freezing rain and ice accumulation east of the
Greens. Changes in the storm track could greatly alter the
precipitation type, and will continue to monitor this system as we
get closer to the end of the week. Low pressure slides eastward
Friday night and precipitation will end from west to east as the low
moves away. Another low pressure system with a similar storm track
is poised to impact our region Saturday night into Sunday with low
passing to our north and west. The GFS and ECMWF are in decent
agreement with track of this system, though GFS is faster than ECMWF
at this time. Cold high pressure will ridge into the area out of
Canada towards the beginning of next week.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Through 06Z Tuesday...Mid/high clouds will continue to increase
overnight as a warm front lifts across the region. This SCT-
BKN cloud cover will remain AOA 5000 ft through 18z Mon, then
start to slowly lower thereafter as moisture increasing ahead of
an approaching cold front. Ceilings should generally remain VFR
until 00z Tue, with KSLK the lone exception where some MVFR
ceilings will creep in during the afternoon hours. A few showers
are possible Monday afternoon, mainly over the higher terrain.
Generally light S/SW winds overnight tonight will give way to
gusty conditions during the day Monday. Gusts of 20-30 kt are
expected, with the strongest gusts to occur in the St Lawrence
and Champlain Valleys. Note that some marginal wind shear will
also be possible overnight tonight as a LLJ works overhead. The
main time frame for any LLWS would be 06z-12z.
Outlook...
Tuesday: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Chance RA.
Tuesday Night: Mainly IFR, with areas MVFR possible. Definite RA.
Wednesday: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Chance RA.
Wednesday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight
chance RA.
Thursday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance RA, Chance
SN.
Thursday Night: MVFR and IFR. Likely RA, Likely SN.
Friday: Mainly MVFR, with local VFR possible. Likely RA.
&&
.EQUIPMENT...
The Colchester Reef meteorological station is out of service.
This site is not serviced by the NWS. An estimated return to
service is May 1st. Please contact us if you observe winds
significantly deviating from the recreational forecast.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.
&&
$$
WHAT HAS CHANGED...Taber
DISCUSSION...Neiles/Taber
AVIATION...Neiles
EQUIPMENT...NWS BTV
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