178
FXUS61 KBTV 172303
AFDBTV
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
703 PM EDT Tue Mar 17 2026
.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
As of 646 PM EDT Tuesday...
Have issued an update to the forecast to adjust temperatures and
chance of precipitation over the next couple of hours. Lake
effect snow remains persistent across the northern Adirondacks
and northern Vermont, but we still expect snow to come to an end
this evening.
&&
.KEY MESSAGES...
As of 245 PM EDT Tuesday...
1. Cool but dry conditions through mid week with ridging
building across the region.
2. Scattered rain and snow showers expected later Thursday into
Thursday night.
3. Unsettled but low-impact weather continues into next week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
As of 245 PM EDT Tuesday...
KEY MESSAGE 1: Winds have been very reluctant to subside today. We`re
still seeing gusts of 35 to 50 mph in portions of northern New York
this afternoon, with mainly 25 to 40 mph gusts ongoing in Vermont.
However, the slow downward trend will continue through the remainder
of today into this evening as high pressure starts to build into the
region.
Likewise, lake effect snow showers that have been affecting northern
New York and far northern Vermont. Winds will gradually trend more
toward the west through this afternoon/ as an upper trough swings by
to our north, so this snow shower activity will eventually shift
southward and out of our forecast area by this evening. Once this
occurs, we`ll see a break in the with high pressure building
across the area through mid week. Clearing skies and subsiding
winds will make for a chilly night tonight; anticipate lows in
the single digits and teens above zero, though some of the usual
cold spots in the Adirondacks may drop below zero. Wednesday
will also be on the cold side, though with lighter winds and at
least some sunshine, it shouldn`t be too bad of a day overall.
Highs will be in the mid 20s to low 30s. Temperatures start to
moderate Wednesday night under increasing south/southwest flow.
We should be fairly close to normal for overnight lows, which
will be in the mid teens to mid 20s.
KEY MESSAGE 2: Low pressure will slide by well to our north later
Thursday and Thursday night, and shower chances will increase as a
result. A weak warm front lifting northward through our area could
spark a few showers Thursday afternoon, but the main impact will be
warmer daytime highs that the previous couple of days, generally in
the upper 30s to low/mid 40s. Showers are more likely Thursday night
into early Friday with the passage of a weak cold front/surface
trough. Temperatures will get down into the 20s to near 30F, so
precipitation will likely start out as rain or a rain/snow mix in
the valleys before changing to snow overnight. The higher
elevations, meanwhile, will see snow at the onset. Precipitation
comes to an end Friday morning. Note that the latest GFS starts to
bring a clipper system and its associated precipitation into
northern NY later Friday afternoon, but this solution is an outlier,
so have kept PoPs capped at 15-25%. Regardless, temperatures will
warm into the mid 30s to mid 40s Friday afternoon, so would expect
any precipitation to be rain or perhaps rain/snow mix over the
higher terrain. The Thursday night system is fairly weak with
minimal moisture, so snowfall amounts will be light. Most areas will
only see a few tenths, with an inch or two at summit levels.
KEY MESSAGE 3: Zonal flow will dominate through the weekend and into
next week, with a couple clippers passing through and bringing
precipitation chances. The first looks to come through late Saturday
into Sunday. Warm air advection will be relatively weak out ahead of
it so it looks like it should be all snow for the higher terrain,
though whether it stays could enough for the precipitation to remain
as snow in the valleys remains in question. Even if it does, it
would likely have a hard time accumulating due to near/above
freezing temperatures and a high late March sun angle. Overall, only
a couple tenths of liquid are expected from this system so any
accumulations in the higher terrain would be minimal. Another couple
clippers pass through next week so there will be additional chances
for rain and snow showers, but those look to be more moisture
starved than the event over the weekend so any impacts should be
minor. Temperatures look to stay around and a little below
climatological normals, but no significant cold is expected.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Through 00Z Thursday...Winds have been very reluctant to
subside today. Most TAF sites continue to report west-
northwesterly gusts 15-35 knots across northern New York and
Vermont this evening, but winds are expected to continue to
decrease into the overnight hours. Gusts will likely be capped
around 20 knots by about 06Z Wednesday, then gusts likely to
come to an end around 09Z-15Z, though west-southwesterly
sustained winds could remain 5-10 knots through 00Z Thursday.
Cool but dry conditions expected through midweek with ridging
building across the region. Lake effect snow and MVFR ceilings
are already coming to an end across the northern Adirondacks
and Northeast Kingdom, and when the snow/clouds finally shift
southwards, we anticipate dry weather and VFR conditions from
03Z-09Z Wednesday through 00Z Thursday.
Outlook...
Wednesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Thursday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA.
Thursday Night: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. Chance SN,
Chance RA.
Friday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SN, Chance
RA.
Friday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance SN,
Chance RA.
Saturday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance RA, Chance
SN.
Saturday Night: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. Chance RA,
Chance SN.
Sunday: Mainly MVFR, with areas IFR possible. Chance SN, Chance
RA.
&&
.EQUIPMENT...
The Colchester Reef meteorological station is out of service.
This site is not serviced by the NWS and there isn`t an
estimated return to service at present. Please contact us if you
observe winds significantly deviating from the recreational
forecast.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.
&&
$$
WHAT HAS CHANGED...Storm
DISCUSSION...Hastings/Myskowski
AVIATION...Storm
EQUIPMENT...NWS BTV
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