709
FXUS61 KBTV 291851
AFDBTV
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
251 PM EDT Wed Apr 29 2026
.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
As of 247 PM EDT Wednesday...
No major changes, widespread wetting rain is still on track for
tonight. Patchy Frost was added to the Champlain Valley Friday night.
&&
.KEY MESSAGES...
As of 247 PM EDT Wednesday...
1. Following near critical fire weather conditions this
afternoon, widespread rainfall is expected this evening into
tomorrow.
2. Unsettled and cool conditions will follow a cold front
heading into Friday and Saturday.
3. Areas of frost expected over the weekend and early next
week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
As of 247 PM EDT Wednesday...
KEY MESSAGE 1: A Special weather statement remains this afternoon until
8 PM for all of Vermont and eastern Clinton and eastern Essex County
in New York for near critical fire weather conditions. Relative
humidities as low as 30 to 35 percent, with brisk south southeast
winds 5 to 15 MPH with gusts up to 25 MPH will continue this
afternoon into this evening, and with very receptive fuels, and
fires that are ignited, could quickly get out of control. While not
as extreme conditions as yesterday, anyone planning to burn, should
check with their local fire officials before setting any fires.
Moisture advection will return to the region beginning tonight ahead
of a surface low that will track through the St. Lawrence Valley
tonight into tomorrow. Good southwest moisture advection along a
cold front extending along the St. Lawrence Valley into the deep
south, with an area of high pressure off the coast of the Mid-
Atlantic, will help to increase dewpoints and precipitable water
areawide as Pwats increase to near 1 inch. Showers are already
across the Finger Lakes region of New York and are expected to move
north into northern New York by late this afternoon. An isolated
rumble of thunder in the southwestern St. Lawrence County is
possible with some meager elevated instability with MLCAPE values
between 100-200J/kg on the latest HRRR soundings. Furthermore, there
has been some observed lightning over Ithaca, NY as well as some
showers further upstream into central Pennsylvania. Showers tonight
will persist along an axis from Malone, NY to Wanakena, NY with
moderate rain at times. Total precipitation could reach 1 inch in
places along the St. Lawrence River, with the HREF showing a 70%
chance of 1 inch in portions of St. Lawrence County. Some isolated
convective elements embedded in the showers may locally push some
locations to an inch and a quarter of rainfall through tomorrow
morning. No flooding concerns are expected as this region is
abnormally dry from a lack of rain over the last week, however, some
river rises are expected due to the added rainfall into the basins,
particularly in northern New York. Showers will move into Vermont
closer to tomorrow morning with dry air firmly in place today which
will be harder to overcome. However, widespread rainfall around half
an inch is expected for much of Vermont. Rain in Vermont will mainly
be of a lighter nature rather than the moderate rain rates that are
expected across northern New York. The bulk of the rain will exit
the region by late morning into early afternoon tomorrow, with just
some lingering light showers in its wake.
KEY MESSAGE 2: Behind the aforementioned frontal system, the remainder
of the work week into the weekend will trend cooler with some
lingering chances of light showers. Cyclonic flow associated with a
dominating upper level low behind the frontal system will keep
shower chances through the day Thursday into Friday. These showers
will be isolated to scattered and mainly confined to the Northeast
Kingdom and northern Adirondacks as low level lapse rates will
steepen under cooling northwest flow aloft. Surface highs Friday and
Saturday will be similar with highs in the mid to upper 40s in the
higher terrain and near 50 degrees in the wider valleys. With the
cooling temperatures, especially overnight, some showers may fall as
snow in the higher terrain above 2000 ft, though accumulations will
little if any at all, as temperatures rise into the 40s during the
day.
One thing to note is that the climatological start to the
growing season in the Champlain Valley begins May 1st (this
Friday) when we expect overnight lows to be near Frost Advisory
criteria (32-36F) both Friday night. Cloud cover may limit the
overall cooling that takes place, but conditions still look
favorable for patchy frost development. Have introduced patchy
frost into the forecast for the Champlain Valley Friday night as
confidence in cooling temperatures, calming winds, and better
confidence in some cloud clearing has increased.
KEY MESSAGE 3: The chilly overnights will continue Saturday night and
Sunday night. Forecast lows these nights range from the mid 20s to
the mid 30s, and a frost to local hard freeze is possible both
Sunday and Monday mornings. Anyone with vulnerable plants outside
should take precautions to protect them over the weekend. The
frost/freeze program will have officially started in the Champlain
Valley on May 1st, so that area may see Headlines if conditions
continue to look favorable for frost. However, we still have a few
days to evaluate just how cold temperatures will get as well as how
the cloud cover and winds will evolve. Temperatures will warm back
up to near normal by Monday night/Tuesday morning and additional
frost beyond Sunday night/Monday morning is not anticipated.
Outside of frost potential, the weather will remain generally
unsettled to start the next week. Progressive upper-level flow will
become established through mid-week, allowing multiple low-amplitude
disturbances to move through. Expect multiple chances for showers,
but no hazardous conditions are expected at this time.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Through 18Z Thursday...TAFs are starting off predominantly VFR,
however ceilings will lower towards widespread MVFR with areas of
IFR after 06Z. A frontal boundary will move through slowly
overnight from west to east, bringing a period of light to moderate
intensity steady rain between 00Z and 18Z. The best chances of IFR
ceilings will be between 09Z and 15Z, especially at KMSS, KSLK, and
KMPV. Other sites may see brief reductions towards IFR ceilings,
but should remain predominantly MVFR. Visibilities will fall to
3-6SM as rain develops, with some brief reductions to below 3SM
possible within areas of moderate intensity rain. There is a small
chance of some thunderstorms near KMSS between 20Z and 00Z, however
chances are too low to include mention in the TAF. Ceilings and
visibilities will improve after 15Z as the front departs to the east
and precipitation ends. Winds will be generally from the
south/southeast at 5-15 knots, with some sporadic gusts to 20 knots
through this evening/early tonight. Given the weakening of low-level
lapse rates as the front approaches, expect gusts to slacken and
redevelop at times, then come to an end all together as the
steady precipitation arrives overnight.
Outlook...
Thursday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight
chance SHRA.
Friday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
Friday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Saturday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
Saturday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Sunday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
Sunday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
Monday: VFR. Chance SHRA.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.
&&
$$
WHAT HAS CHANGED...Danzig
DISCUSSION...Danzig/Duell
AVIATION...Duell
|
