FXUS61 KBTV 201358
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
958 AM EDT Mon Aug 20 2018
Dry weather and slightly above normal temperatures are expected
across the North Country today as high pressure exists over the
area. Most of Tuesday will be dry as well...but a slow moving low
pressure system will eventually bring fairly widespread rain to the
area...especially Tuesday night into Wednesday. Drier weather will
return for Thursday and Friday along with seasonal temperatures.
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 957 AM EDT Monday...Fog has been mixing out of the
Connecticut River Valley as expected with mostly sunny skies
prevailing across the North Country. Overall forecast is in very
good shape and no changes were made other than to account for
current diurnal heating trends.
Previous Discussion...There has been just enough cloud cover
over the area to help limit the development of fog early this
morning. We were not expecting anything like yesterday... but
favored locations could still see some development in the next
few hours. Otherwise looking at a dry day today with a good deal
of sunshine and highs in the mid 70s to lower 80s...which would
be a degree or two warmer than yesterday. The dry weather
continues into tonight...but we should start to see surface high
pressure moving east of the area and south to southwest flow
developing ahead on a slow moving upper trough. There will
likely be a sharp precipitation gradient with no precipitation
expected across eastern Vermont and the best precipitation
chances occurring in the Saint Lawrence Valley of New York later
in the afternoon. Overall looking at an increase in mid and
high level clouds throughout the day and highs on Tuesday once
again being in the mid 70s to lower 80s.
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 323 AM EDT Monday...Precipitation becomes fairly
widespread across the entire area Tuesday night into early
Wednesday as upper trough finally moves into the region. Could
even see the potential for some thunder and have continued this
idea in the forecast... especially over northern New York. Winds
will be picking up as well with deepening low pressure moving
up into Canada. The upper trough moves east of the area on
Wednesday...especially in the afternoon... and this will help to
start bringing precipitation to an end from west to east in the
afternoon. Rainfall amounts from Tuesday afternoon through
Wednesday afternoon will range from one- third to two-thirds of
an inch. Highs on Wednesday will generally be in the 70s due to
the clouds and precipitation.
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 323 AM EDT Monday...Long term forecast trends much
quieter after the departure of the mid-week low pressure system.
Wednesday night, cold front will have cleared the forecast
area, allowing for the subsequent arrival of cooler and drier
air from the north. Low temperatures will be 5-10 degrees cooler
Wednesday night than Tuesday night, with lows in the 50s
forecast for most of the area. The upper-level trough will
remain over the region through Thursday, then lift to the
northeast Thursday night. Beneath the trough and it`s associated
cooler air aloft, should be fairly well mixed in the boundary
layer. As such, could see some breezy northerly/westerly wind
during the afternoon hours, along with some of the lower
dewpoints we`ve observed in quite some time. Should overall be a
very refreshing day after the recent warm temperatures.
Ridging builds in aloft Friday through Friday night, then the next
chance for rain comes Saturday evening/Sunday morning as a weak
shortwave moves through. Given the strength of the downstream
ridging however, it`s uncertain how much impact this wave will have
on New England`s weather this weekend. Have introduced PoPs in the
15% to 30% range Saturday night through Sunday, but details of this
weekend`s forecast remain yet to be ironed out. Temperatures will
remain fairly steady, with highs in the upper 70s/low 80s and
lows in the 50s to mid 60s Friday through Sunday.
.AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Through 12z Tuesday...Low clouds and fog will hold on at KMPV
until 14z resulting in IFR to VLIFR conditions...but all other
locations will be VFR. All sites will be VFR through the
remainder of the period as little in the way of cloud cover is
expected. However...the only exception to this will be at KSLK
and KMPV after 06z when low clouds and fog may form again to
produce IFR to LIFR conditions. Winds will generally be under 10
knots through the period.
Tuesday: VFR. Chance SHRA.
Tuesday Night: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Definite
Wednesday: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Chance SHRA.
Wednesday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. NO SIG WX.
Thursday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Thursday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Friday: VFR. NO SIG WX.