403
FXUS61 KBTV 282335
AFDBTV
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
735 PM EDT Thu May 28 2026
.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
As of 117 PM EDT Thursday...
No significant changes.
&&
.KEY MESSAGES...
As of 117 PM EDT Thursday...
1. Showery and cooler weather is expected through the weekend
with potential for a very isolated thunderstorm Friday
afternoon.
2. Omega block to continue through much of next week with
seasonably cool temperatures and period of showers.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
As of 117 PM EDT Thursday...
KEY MESSAGE 1: The region will remain under a northwest flow
pattern through the end of the week into the weekend keeping
temperatures cooler than seasonal averages and promoting daily
shower potential as a series of troughs move through. The
strongest feature will move through Friday bringing more
widespread shower chances, cold temperatures aloft with
steepening lapse rates, and some breezes. With the cold pool
favored to move directly across northern New York and Vermont,
some light snow is probable at peak levels of the Adirondacks
and possibly the Greens. Accumulations will be light to
negligible given recent warmer conditions and likely rapid
melting of snow as it contacts the surface of the ridges. Still
up to an inch of snow is possible, especially in the
Adirondacks, and could catch more casual hikers off guard. If
you have hiking plans at higher elevations, expect to need some
cold weather gear. Periodic breezy conditions are expected,
especially in the northern Champlain Valley where flow tends to
be more channeled; gusts 20-30 mph possible this afternoon over
Lake Champlain and again Friday night as the upper low passes
bringing a resurgence of northerly flow.
KEY MESSAGE 2: A series of shortwaves will help reinforce the upper
level low anchoring the eastern periphery of the omega block on
Monday and Tuesday. Scattered showers are expected due to the
increased forcing from the shortwave energy which will help keep
temperatures below seasonal normals. Global guidance continues to
slow the breaking down of the omega block which is quite typical in
long-duration blocking patterns. It does look like the blocking
pattern will finally begin to weaken on Wednesday with the upper low
pushing to the east/northeast and the ridge across the central US
shifting eastward. The ridge is expected to weaken and become less
amplified as it shifts eastward which will advect in much warmer
temperatures (close to seasonal normals) but won`t be to the same
extreme seen further west.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Through 00Z Saturday...A few showers are tracking north to
south, mainly across Vermont, which are embedded in stratocumulus
with bases around 2500-4000 ft agl. Occasionally, these showers
are bringing visibilities down to 4-8SM. This wave of activity
will pass south and shrink in coverage, but another wave of
scattered rain showers will approach KEFK about 04z-07z with a
subtle trough. Otherwise, winds will trend light and variable in
association with the trough. Beyond 12-14z, south to southwest
winds will develop before a compact low dives south from Canada.
Showers will spread south ahead of the low about 17z-20z. There
are some timing differences when rain advances, but as low
pressure passes, winds will gradually trend west to west-
northwest and increase to 6-10 knots. Higher winds around 15
knots sustained with gusts around 25 knots are expected at KMSS.
Over northern New York, some instability could briefly develop
between 21z-00z, and there could be some thunder. However,
confidence is relatively low right now and left it out of KMSS
and KSLK for now. Ceilings will fall towards 2000-4000 ft agl as
the surface low reaches the area between 20z-23z. Additional
rain and lower ceilings are anticipated beyond 00z Saturday.
Outlook...
Friday Night: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. Definite
SHRA.
Saturday: VFR. Chance SHRA.
Saturday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Sunday: VFR. Chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA.
Sunday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA,
Slight chance TSRA.
Monday: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Chance SHRA, Slight
chance TSRA.
Monday Night: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. Slight chance SHRA.
Tuesday: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. Chance SHRA, Slight chance
TSRA.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.
&&
$$
WHAT HAS CHANGED...Boyd
DISCUSSION...Clay/Boyd
AVIATION...Haynes
|
