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  Friday July 19, 2019

 

NWS Area Forecast Discussion


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000
FXUS61 KBTV 191441
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Burlington VT
1041 AM EDT Fri Jul 19 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
Heat advisories are in effect for today and Saturday due to hot
and humid conditions. Temperatures will warm into the upper 80s
to mid 90s today and Saturday with nighttime temperatures only
dropping into the the upper 60s to mid 70s. Isolated to
scattered thunderstorms may be possible each day this weekend.
More seasonable weather returns by early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 1030 AM EDT Friday...Everything continues to stay on track
for a hot day here in the North Country. Still looking at highs
in the upper 80s/low 90s with heat indices in the upper 90s to
low 100s in valley locations. Main message continues to be heat
safety today, being sure to stay hydrated and avoid prolonged
exposure to the sun. Also very important today to make
arrangements for anyone vulnerable to heat and living alone, as
these heat indices can be quite dangerous. In terms of forecast
updates, did nudge down PoPs today as confidence increases in
rising heights, but still can`t rule out a stray thunderstorm or
shower developing along terrain...and potentially drifting off
terrain into a valley. By and large though expecting most of the
area to stay dry today.

Previous Discussion...Have added Windsor county to the heat
advisory for today, primarily for the Lower Connecticut River
valley. Otherwise, heat headlines remain in effect for today and
Saturday as temperatures are expected to warm into the upper
80s to low 90s and low to mid 90s Saturday with dewpoints in the
upper 60s to low 70s. Currently some stubborn low clouds have
managed to work their way into much of central/eastern VT and
into the southern Adirondacks. These clouds will linger through
the morning hours before mixing out toward midday. While
initially warming will be slow, nighttime temperatures have only
dropped into the low 60s to low 70s which should allow up to
warm-up nicely once heating gets going. Chances for
precipitation today remain minimal with no real forcing
available and increasing heights aloft. Have maintained just a
slight chance for thunderstorms primarily across the high
terrain for the late afternoon/evening hours as it will take a
while for cap to break down. Otherwise, it will be a dry and
stiflingly warm day. Lows overnight will remain warm in the
upper 60s to mid 70s. Winds today will gradually pick up out the
south/southwest between 5-10 mph with gusts up to 15-20 mph
possible in the afternoon.

Tomorrow will see a wash, rise, repeat with temperatures a few
degrees warming than today. Daytime relatively humidity values will
be similar in the upper 60s to low 70s with heat indices warming
into the upper 90s to low 100s. This will be the warmest day of the
period so be sure to take extra precaution while outside. There
remains a chance for precipitation on Saturday as shortwave energy
passes overhead. The best chances for showers will be late Saturday
afternoon/evening however there still remains some uncertainty in
the placement of this convection between NAM/GFS/Euro. We`ll
continue to monitor the potential for these storms as any storms
that do develop will have the potential to be strong/severe.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 506 AM EDT Friday...Lots of uncertainty for the latter half of
the weekend, mainly due to significant differences in the models`
timing of a cold frontal passage. This impacts both the temperature
and precipitation forecasts.

Convection could be ongoing Saturday evening, particularly over
northern areas, as some of the guidance appears to bring a decaying
MCS around the ridge and into our region early in the overnight. If
this indeed occurs, it should exit by midnight or so, with lingering
convection dying off late. It`ll be another muggy night with lows in
the upper 60s to mid 70s.

Uncertainty only increases heading into Sunday given significant
timing differences in cold frontal passage. The 19/00z GFS shows the
front moving through during the late morning/early afternoon hours
on Sunday, missing the peak heating/instability portion of the day.
Hence, convection develops mainly over central and southern portions
of our region. Temperatures would rise back into the 90s in southern
VT, while other areas remain in the 80s behind the front. However,
the 19/00z NAM has a much slower frontal passage, bringing it
through Sunday night. Convection would occur along the international
border, particularly late in the day as the front draws near.
Temperatures would approach and/or exceed 90 once again in many
locations. Sunday night could conceivably be another muggy one if
the NAM holds true, or we may start to see some relief, especially
in the north, if the GFS solution occurs. Given the differences,
have stayed close to a model blend for temperatures and PoPs. The
NAM solution is more favorable for strong to severe storms,
particularly from the Adirondacks westward. Additional heat-related
headlines may be needed as well. Subsequent shifts will need to
monitor trends and make adjustments as models converge on a
particular scenario.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 506 AM EDT Friday...The front should finally move south of our
region by Monday morning, though guidance is indicating it may hang
up across southern New England with potential waves riding along it.
So while drier and cooler air will move into the North Country, rain
chances continue into the middle of the week, especially in
southeastern areas, until the upper trough finally kicks the front
eastward. High pressure will finally take hold by late week.
Temperatures will be near seasonal normals through the period.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Through 06Z Saturday...Mainly VFR through the TAF period under
mostly clear skies. Some scattered/broken 1500-2500ft ceilings
continue to linger across southern VT this morning should
dissipate 12z. Isolated showers near International border will
continue to move east and exit area toward late morning. Chances
for an isolated TS during the afternoon hours are possible but
areal coverage will be limited so have omitted VCSH/VCTS from
TAF at this time. Winds will be light out of the south around 5
kts this morning increasing to 5-10 kt with gusts up to 20 kt
in the afternoon especially at KBTV and KMSS. Winds will
gradually turn out of the SE between 5-10 kt towards 22z.

Outlook...

Saturday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA.
Saturday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance
SHRA, Chance TSRA.
Sunday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA, Chance
TSRA.
Sunday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA, Chance TSRA.
Monday: VFR. Chance SHRA.
Monday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
Tuesday: VFR. NO SIG WX.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...Heat Advisory from noon to 8 PM EDT Saturday for VTZ003-004-
     006>008-010-016>019.
     Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT Saturday for VTZ001-002-005-009-
     011-012.
NY...Heat Advisory from noon to 8 PM EDT Saturday for NYZ029>031-
     034.
     Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT Saturday for NYZ026>028-035-087.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LaRocca
NEAR TERM...Duell/LaRocca
SHORT TERM...Hastings
LONG TERM...Hastings
AVIATION...LaRocca



 
 
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