464
FXUS61 KBTV 220657
AFDBTV
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
157 AM EST Sun Feb 22 2026
.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
As of 156 AM EST Sunday...
A Winter Weather Advisory has been issued for Rutland and Windsor
counties of Vermont from 1 AM Monday to 7 PM Monday, where snowfall
amounts of 3 to 5 inches are expected.
&&
.KEY MESSAGES...
As of 156 AM EST Sunday...
1. A strong nor`easter developing off the Mid-Atlantic coast
will bring snowfall and breezy conditions to the region, with the
greatest snowfall amounts expected across southern and central
Vermont.
2. Cold weather is expected Monday night through Tuesday night.
With the combination of lingering strong northwest gusts, wind
chills of -5 to -15 are possible over northern New York through
Tuesday afternoon.
3. Active weather expected over the latter half of next week
with several rounds of widespread precipitation in the forecast.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
As of 156 AM EST Sunday...
KEY MESSAGE 1: A strong Nor`easter looks to develop off the Mid-
Atlantic coast today, with the center of the low tracking southeast
of Cape Cod tonight into Monday. While this system will bring heavy
snow and blizzard conditions to southern New England, our region
will remain on the northern periphery of the system with a fairly
sharp snowfall gradient expected, as typical with these systems. As
of now, the current forecast shows 3 to 5 inches across south
central Vermont, with 1 to 3 across central Vermont, while more
northern locations and most of northern New York will miss out. As
of now, the bulk of the snowfall looks to fall Monday morning,
before gradually winding down Monday afternoon and evening as the
coastal low pulls away. Due to increased confidence of higher snow
amounts, a Winter Weather Advisory has been issued for Rutland and
Windsor counties from 1 AM Monday to 7 PM Monday. In addition to the
snowfall, gusty winds are also expected with this system, with gusts
in the 30 to 40 mph range increasingly likely across southern
Vermont. These winds could lead to blowing snow, making for even
more hazardous travel conditions and reduced visibilities,
especially in any mountain passes so be sure be alert and use
caution if traveling through southern Vermont Monday.
KEY MESSAGE 2: Even as powerful, deep low pressure shifts east of the
region, we`ll still feel some impacts Monday night into Tuesday.
Isobars remain tightly packed as arctic high pressure noses down
across James Bay. Temperatures will sink towards 0 F across northern
New York while winds remain around 10-20 mph with gusts up to 25.
Temperatures will feel more like -5 to -15 across the region.
Vermont is likely to remain a bit warmer, as the core of coldest air
doesn`t arrive in Vermont until midday, and the depth of cold is
also somewhat shallow with an inversion around 2000 ft agl meaning
that cold air will have a harder time making it over mountain
ridges. Highs on Tuesday will creep into the 10s over northern New
York and far northern Vermont, while the lower Champlain Valley and
Upper Valley warm into the 20s. A few lingering snow showers will be
possible as an incoming shortwave gets absorbed within deep, stacked
low pressure and arctic maritime moisture wraps around. The forecast
for temperatures on Tuesday night is somewhat tricky when high
pressure settles in and winds go calm. We may radiate initially, but
cloud cover from the next system will already be approaching, and it
may cap things off early. The current forecast is about -5 to 5 F.
If there`s less cloud cover, perennial cold spot Saranac Lake, New
York may make a break for it and drop to the teens below zero.
KEY MESSAGE 3: The second half of next week will observe moderating
temperatures behind the brief cold, with very seasonable conditions.
The range of model scenarios is a bit less, and it appears they have
a better handle of the two systems translating east across the
region. The first seems less impactful. During the day Tuesday, a
surface low will develop off the Rockies as a vort is ejected out of
British Columbia and skirt the international border over the course
of its life. The cyclone will mature over Lake Superior and be on
the decline upon reaching Vermont and northern New York. The system
will be somewhat lacking in moisture (PWATS 0.15-0.25), but enough
forcing should exist as the trough acquires a negative tilt with low-
level speed convergence due to the positioning of a LLJ across the
Mid-Atlantic that we should be able to manage about 0.05-0.25" of
liquid. Upper air temperatures will stay very cold in the wake of
the early week coastal. So even as surface temperatures warm near
freezing to the mid 30s, the warm air is very shallow, and so
precipitation will likely remain entirely snow.
The Thursday night into Friday morning feature appears more likely
to have some impact. It`s a fast moving system, with precipitation
likely confined to a 18 hour window, but several ingredients for
synoptic forcing will be present. Unfortunately, one of those is a
fairly strong southerly jet in the 850-700mb level at 50-55 knots,
maybe even approaching 60 kts depending on which model scenario
you`re looking at. Some guidance keeps us cool enough that
everything is all snow, but a handful allows a warm nose aloft that
causes mixed p-types in the forecast area. There is some latitude
spread, with some keeping activity suppressed far enough south that
we see little, but the majority indicate widespread precipitation
will be headed our way.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Through 06Z Monday...Far northeastern Vermont is completely clear,
while the rest of Vermont and northern New York are under stratus
with bases around 2000-6000 ft agl. Little change is expected over
the next 6-9 hours. Signals for whether ceilings lift or remain the
same are a little mixed. Dry easterly winds will likely cause
ceilings to rise, but some very light snow will slowly edge north,
mainly across northern New York between 15z and 22z before exiting.
Snow doesn`t appear to be very organized, and visibilities will
likely be 3-6SM in any snow. A more substantial surge of dry air
will come from the northeast. After 00z Monday, winds will become
light and variable, except trending easterly at KRUT as a powerful
coastal system begins to develop. Snow will start edging northwards
about 04z, in addition to winds increasing in southern Vermont up to
40 knots, meaning LLWS for KRUT. Additional impacts likely beyond
06z Monday.
Outlook...
Monday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SN.
Monday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight chance
SN.
Tuesday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. Chance SN.
Wednesday Night: Mainly MVFR, with local VFR possible. Chance SN.
Thursday: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Chance SN, Chance
RA.
&&
.EQUIPMENT...
The KMPV ASOS has suffered a communications failure. The issue
has been diagnosed, but there is currently no estimated time of
return to service. Terminal Aerodrome Forecasts will continue,
but amendments to those forecasts will be suspended.
NOAA Weather Radio station WXM-44, transmitting from Mt.
Ascutney, Vermont, on frequency 162.475 MHz is non- operational
at this time. NWS technicians have diagnosed the problem, but
repairs will likely not be able to occur for quite some time due
to circumstances beyond our control. Therefore, the time of
return to service is currently unknown. The following NOAA
Weather Radio transmitters may be able to provide service during
this outage: WWG 50 from Burke Mtn, VT at 162.425 MHz and WNG
546 from Hanover, NH at 162.525 MHz.
The Colchester Reef meteorological station is out of service.
This site is not serviced by the NWS and there isn`t an
estimated return to service at present. Please contact us if you
observe winds significantly deviating from the recreational
forecast.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...Winter Weather Advisory from 1 AM to 7 PM EST Monday for
VTZ011-019>021.
NY...None.
&&
$$
WHAT HAS CHANGED...Kremer
DISCUSSION...Kremer/Haynes
AVIATION...Haynes
EQUIPMENT...NWS BTV
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