567
FXUS61 KBTV 292352
AFDBTV
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
752 PM EDT Wed Jul 29 2026
.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
As of 751 PM EDT Wednesday...
The Flood Watch is expiring at 8 PM. Some showers remain
possible tonight into tomorrow.
&&
.KEY MESSAGES...
As of 235 PM EDT Wednesday...
1. Periods of rain continue tonight through tomorrow.
2. Trending drier heading into the first half of the weekend.
3. Thunderstorm potential for Sunday and Monday, followed by a
warming trend.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
As of 235 PM EDT Wednesday...
KEY MESSAGE 1: A surface low has tracked north through southern New
England and into southern Vermont today, bringing an area of rain
back into the region. The rain will attempt to continue north, but
the low will be occluding and weakening. Rainfall rates with the
band continue to decrease, with peak hourly amounts mostly around
and below 0.3 inches. The rain will continue to lighten as the
afternoon and evening progress, though some light rain will likely
re-enter northern areas. Overall, around 1-3 inches has fallen, with
additional amounts up to around an inch possible. Outside the main
area of low pressure, areas of convection developed in the immediate
St. Lawrence Valley this morning. A narrow strip of 2-3 inches has
fallen in the Ogdensburg area and south, but it has not been enough
to cause any flooding. The remaining convection is currently in the
process of weakening. The terrain there is not very susceptible to
flash flooding and it would take notably more rain to cause any. As
the main area of low pressure makes its way north, the synoptic rain
and clouds will minimize the instability, and subsidence in the
areas just outside the shield of precipitation should start to
dampen any additional convection as well. While widespread rainfall
will continue into tomorrow, it will become scattered and mostly
confined to eastern areas, except in the afternoon when diurnal
heating will cause some weak convection. Overall, the flood threat
has decreased. While an isolated area of flash flooding still cannot
be completely ruled out in southern/central Vermont and Essex
County, it is looking increasingly less likely.
KEY MESSAGE 2: The upper-level low becomes cut off and gradually exits
heading through Friday, though the dynamics will be too weak and too
far east to produce any more significant precipitation. However,
isolated showers are possible on Friday due to the diurnal heating.
Ridging briefly becomes established on Saturday, and the day should
be mostly dry. Temperatures will be seasonable during this stretch,
with highs in the 70s to mid 80s and lows in the 50s and low 60s.
KEY MESSAGE 3: On Sunday and Monday, showers and thunderstorms will move
along a trough of low pressure. While the air mass will have plenty of
moisture to tap into, we are looking at quick moving air mass
thunderstorms. Given the wet antecedent conditions, we will
continue to monitor this system for any potential impacts.
As the trough exits our region, high pressure will build in with dry
and stable air. Tuesday and Wednesday will be significantly warmer than
average, with valley locations reaching int the mid 80s for daytime
highs and mid 50s to mid 60s for nighttime lows.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Through 00Z Friday...Rain is arcing from KSLK to KPBG/KBTV, and into
KEFK slowly to the northwest. Some moderate rain is near KRUT, but
may not reach due to terrain shadowing. This is from some 2000 ft
agl southeast winds of about 35-40 knots across the southern Greens
near KRUT. All terminals are currently VFR. Given rainfall rates are
declining, thinking that any MVFR or IFR conditions overnight may
come from fog or some lower ceilings that are across Massachusetts
and southern New Hampshire that will lift into parts of southern and
eastern Vermont. The highest probability of IFR are at KMSS and
KRUT. Intermittent rain will remain possible through the region
until 10z, and then scattered showers will be possible across
Vermont until 00z Thursday. Impacts to ceilings or visibility are
generally not expected. As the surface low moves east and away,
north winds will be favored around 4-8 knots, and ceilings are
expected to gradually after 18z Wednesday.
Outlook...
Thursday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
Friday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight chance SHRA.
Friday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Saturday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Saturday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
Sunday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Likely SHRA, Chance
TSRA.
Sunday Night: Mainly IFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance SHRA,
Slight chance TSRA.
Monday: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. Chance SHRA, Slight chance
TSRA.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.
&&
$$
WHAT HAS CHANGED...Haynes
DISCUSSION...Langbauer/Myskowski
AVIATION...Haynes
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