055
FXUS61 KBTV 101120
AFDBTV
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
720 AM EDT Fri Jul 10 2026
.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
As of 251 AM EDT Friday...
No significant changes to the forecast.
&&
.KEY MESSAGES...
As of 251 AM EDT Friday...
1. A cold front will continue to move through this morning, and
with it an end to shower activity. More seasonable and drier weather
is expected heading into this weekend.
2. A brief burst of heat will give way to a steadier period of
more seasonable weather.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
As of 251 AM EDT Friday...
KEY MESSAGE 1: A cold front will continue to slide south and east
across the region this morning. A few light to moderate showers will
be possible south of US-2 through the early morning today, but as
the front sags south, showers will begin to taper off. Behind the
front through the rest of today, cooler northerly air will begin to
filter south from Canada with mid to upper level drying. As our mid
to upper levels cool, an inversion may set up with a warm nose
present around 800-700mb. This may help spur some isolated, mainly
terrain-driven showers in the Adirondacks and Greens; albeit under a
30% chance of rain this afternoon. By and large most will see a
mainly dry today with clearing skies by the afternoon. Temperatures
today will be much cooler than recent days, only reaching the low
70s to low 80s with initial clouds and northerly flow. With the
northerly flow, a light channeled wind in the Champlain Valley may
make it feel a bit breezy (around 15 MPH). Some fog may be possible
in the usual river valleys tonight due to the recent rains and
clearing skies.
Into the weekend, dry and seasonably warm highs in the upper 70s to
mid 80s are expected. Dewpoints will also make it feel quite
comfortable, with values only around 50F. A mix of sun and clouds
can be expected both Saturday and Sunday with clear radiationally
cooled overnights. Expect lows in the low to mid 50s and some patchy
valley fog, mainly in eastern Vermont, though fog coverage will
decrease with subsequent nights through the weekend. Temperatures
and the humidity will begin to rebound back up to start off next
week as ridging returns to the region.
KEY MESSAGE 2: A hot and dry air mass will get squeezed between a
large, anomalous upper high in the central US, and an upper low
that`s nothing to sniff at either diving into northern Quebec
Province. The fortunate news for us is that this jailbreak heat will
get shunted south by this upper low digging southwards. We`ll have
one day of very warm temperatures to contend with, and 925mb
temperatures will push 25-26 C. This usually corresponds with upper
80s for cooler elevation areas, and mid 90s in the broad valleys.
The continental source of the air mass will keep dewpoints at least
in the low to mid 60s as opposed to truly tropical air.
By Tuesday evening into the overnight, a powerful surface cold front
will drop south with this upper low taking up residence in northern
Quebec Province. The late timing could prevent activity from being
strong, but it seems likely that it will at least linger some
Tuesday night into Wednesday before shifting south. We`ll watch
trends on that, and then afterwards, we`re in for some spectacular
summer weather, with near normal temperatures, and below normal
moisture appears likely.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Through 12Z Saturday...Pockets of 500-900 ft agl ceilings reside
south of KSLK/KBTV/KMVL within the back edge of a cold front,
along with patchy drizzle. Increasing sunshine and dry air is
expected to quickly lift and scatter clouds in the next 2-3
hours. North winds at 6-11 knots is expected today, with a few
gusts 18-20 knots possible, with the highest speeds possible at
KPBG and KBTV. After 22-23z, winds will quickly become light and
variable. River valley fog impacting KSLK/KMPV/KEFK is expected
after 04z Saturday.
Outlook...
Saturday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Saturday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Sunday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Sunday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Monday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Monday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.
&&
$$
WHAT HAS CHANGED...Danzig
DISCUSSION...Danzig/Haynes
AVIATION...Haynes
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