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  Tuesday May 23, 2017

 

NWS Area Forecast Discussion


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000
FXUS61 KBTV 191141
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
741 AM EDT Fri May 19 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Cold front will push across the area today, scattered rain
showers are expected this morning. Much cooler and drier weather
arrives by midday with some patchy frost possible overnight. A
warm front will produce scattered showers on Sunday evening
with temperatures returning to near normal.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
As of 741 AM EDT Friday...Surface cold front will gradually
cross our forecast area from Northwest to Southeast today. Front
is currently just pushing across the Saint Lawrence Valley with
some scattered rain showers accompanying the front, especially
in the higher elevations. West to southwesterly winds will shift
NW behind the front with a deck of low clouds. Best vorticity
advection will be during the morning hours. Strong cold air
advection behind the frontal passage will be evident. 850 temps
will cool into the single digits this afternoon. Temperatures
won`t make it too far across Northern New York today with max
temperatures achieved early this morning, mainly 50s to around
60. Our Southern zones will be the warmest where it takes the
longest for the frontal passage, we`ll see some 70s in Southern
Vermont. Winds will be brisk and gusty, especially along with
the fropa, dropping off this afternoon. At first clouds will
increase through the day with the front, but then should see
some breaks in the clouds towards the afternoon and evening
hours as higher pressure builds into the region.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 525 AM EDT Friday...Drier air and higher pressure will
build into the area tonight, and remain through early Sunday.
Temperatures will be about five degrees below seasonal normals
from tonight through Saturday night. Will have decent
radiational cooling conditions with clearing skies and light
winds, may have some frost in the colder more protected valleys
of the Greens and Dacks. At this time, didn`t note enough
coverage for any advisory. Saturday should feature a lot of
sunshine.

Sunday will start out dry and clear, with increasing clouds and
chance for precipitation during the evening hours with
approaching warm front. Will have warm air advection increase
during the day Sunday, temperatures will max out near seasonal
normals. Most of the day Sunday will remain dry, but increasing
chances for some showers during the evening hours. Best synoptic
forcing will hold off till after 00z.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 440 AM EDT Friday...As surface high pressure slides east
into the Atlantic, a cold front will bring showers into the
North Country from west to east Sunday night through Monday. The
GFS is depicting a southwesterly jet of 20- 30 kts -
potentially producing gusty winds at the surface in the Saint
Lawrence Valley. Southwest to westerly flow will persist behind
the front, meaning the front will have more of an impact on
moisture/dewpoints than on temperatures.

Tuesday is expected to be dry as weak ridging briefly resides
over the area. At this point, GFS and ECMWF continue to differ
on the track of the next surface low pressure system associated
with large 500mb trough/closed low.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Through 12Z Saturday...Cold front currently pushing through the
St Lawrence valley will shift winds NW with possibly a period
of gusts up to 25kts possible. VFR cigs ahead of the front will
become MVFR through the early afternoon, esp at MSS and SLK.

Expect clouds to begin to clear in the evening as winds subside
to around 5 kts or less. Under good radiational cooling
conditions, cannot rule out patchy fog development around SLK
and MPV.

Outlook...

Saturday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Saturday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Sunday: VFR. Slight Chance SHRA.
Sunday Night: VFR/MVFR. Likely SHRA.
Monday: VFR/MVFR. Likely SHRA.
Monday Night: VFR. Slight Chance SHRA.
Tuesday: VFR. Slight Chance SHRA.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Neiles
NEAR TERM...KGM/Neiles
SHORT TERM...Neiles
LONG TERM...KGM
AVIATION...KGM



 
 
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