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Current conditions from King Hill
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  Tuesday May 23, 2017

 

NWS Area Forecast Discussion


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000
FXUS61 KBTV 190930
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
530 AM EDT Fri May 19 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Cold front will push across the area today, scattered rain
showers are expected this morning. Much cooler and drier weather
arrives by midday with some patchy frost possible overnight. A
warm front will produce scattered showers on Sunday evening
with temperatures returning to near normal.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
As of 515 AM EDT Friday...Cold front will cross our forecast
area from Northwest to Southeast today. Front is currently just
pushing into Saint Lawrence county and gusty southwest winds can
be expected with the fropa. Some scattered rain showers are
expected with the front, especially in the higher elevations.
Best vorticity advection will be during the morning hours.
Strong cold air advection behind the frontal passage will be
evident. 850 temps will cool into the single digits this
afternoon. Temperatures won`t make it too far across Northern
New York today with max temperatures achieved early this
morning, mainly 50s to around 60. Our Southern zones will be the
warmest where it takes the longest for the frontal passage,
we`ll see some 70s in Southern Vermont. Winds will be brisk and
gusty, especially along with the fropa, dropping off this
afternoon. At first clouds will increase through the day with
the front, but then should see some breaks in the clouds towards
the afternoon and evening hours as higher pressure builds into
the region.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 525 AM EDT Friday...Drier air and higher pressure will
build into the area tonight, and remain through early Sunday.
Temperatures will be about five degrees below seasonal normals
from tonight through Saturday night. Will have decent
radiational cooling conditions with clearing skies and light
winds, may have some frost in the colder more protected valleys
of the Greens and Dacks. At this time, didn`t note enough
coverage for any advisory. Saturday should feature a lot of
sunshine.

Sunday will start out dry and clear, with increasing clouds and
chance for precipitation during the evening hours with
approaching warm front. Will have warm air advection increase
during the day Sunday, temperatures will max out near seasonal
normals. Most of the day Sunday will remain dry, but increasing
chances for some showers during the evening hours. Best synoptic
forcing will hold off till after 00z.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 440 AM EDT Friday...As surface high pressure slides east
into the Atlantic, a cold front will bring showers into the
North Country from west to east Sunday night through Monday. The
GFS is depicting a southwesterly jet of 20- 30 kts -
potentially producing gusty winds at the surface in the Saint
Lawrence Valley. Southwest to westerly flow will persist behind
the front, meaning the front will have more of an impact on
moisture/dewpoints than on temperatures.

Tuesday is expected to be dry as weak ridging briefly resides
over the area. At this point, GFS and ECMWF continue to differ
on the track of the next surface low pressure system associated
with large 500mb trough/closed low.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Through 06Z Saturday...VFR conditions persist for the next
several hours ahead of approaching cold front currently situated
over SErn Ontario. This front will move south and east across
the North Country, shifting S/SW winds NW. Expect some areas to
see MVFR cigs behind the front...mainly MSS, SLK and MPV. Expect
MVFR cigs to linger at SLK longest...into the early afternoon.
Otherwise VFR conditions persist elsewhere in the afternoon to
early evening. With clearing skies, building high pressure and
subsiding winds Friday night, fog development possible at SLK
and MPV.

Outlook...

Saturday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Saturday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Sunday: VFR. Slight Chance SHRA.
Sunday Night: VFR/MVFR. Likely SHRA.
Monday: MVFR. Likely SHRA.
Monday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA.
Tuesday: VFR. Slight Chance SHRA.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Neiles
NEAR TERM...Neiles
SHORT TERM...Neiles
LONG TERM...KGM
AVIATION...KGM



 
 
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