050
FXUS61 KBTV 301741
AFDBTV
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
141 PM EDT Thu Oct 30 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
Windy and rainy conditions are expected over the next couple of days
as strengthening low pressure moves across the Northeast and
southern New England. Rain will develop over northern New York this
morning and then spread into most of Vermont by sunset. A widespread
rainfall is expected across the entire area by Friday night with
amounts generally in the 1 to 2 inch range, with more than 2 inches
expected in the St Lawrence Valley. Abundant cloud cover along with
the precipitation will keep temperatures in the mid 40s to lower 50s
on both today and Friday, with some mountain snow showers likely
Friday night into Saturday. Drier and cooler weather returns late
Saturday into Sunday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 1040 AM EDT Thursday...Another update to hoist wind
advisory along the western slopes from 5 PM this evening to 5 AM
Friday for localized gusts 45 to 55 mph. Isolated to scattered
power outages are possible. Latest 12z HRRR and NAM3KM continue
to show potential gusty southeast downslope winds with the
latest HRRR showing near 60 knots at 500 feet AGL at RUT. Still
some questions with regards to momentum transfer with core of
strongest winds occurring near when precip is progged. Also,
HREF is showing 60 to 70% prob of wind gusts >45 mph and a mean
wind gust in the 50 to 60 mph range for many locations along the
western slopes. Users will note Lamoille County is in the
advisory, which is for communities such as Pleasant Valley,
Cambridge and Johnson areas. Otherwise, did some more tweaking
to the pop grids, as ribbons of rain continue to impact most of
our cwa this morning per latest radar trends.
Previous discussion below:
Vertically-stacked low pressure currently over central KY/TN
will gradually lift northeastward today and Friday, gradually
deepening as it does so. We`re already seeing increasing cloud
cover over southern sections of our forecast area early this
morning as south/southeast flow ahead of the system advects in
deeper moisture. Rain can be seen moving into southern NY at
this hour, and this will push north and east into northern NY
this morning. Given the dry air that is in place, it may take a
little bit for the rain to reach the ground, but expect rain to
be falling by mid/late morning over much of NY; it will then
eventually spread eastward into VT by late this afternoon. Low-
level southeast flow will strengthen as a 60kt jet lifts
northward; the question continues to be how much of this jet
will be able to mix down and how strong downsloping winds will
become. The peak of the jet moves through this evening into the
overnight, roughly 6 pm Thu to about 3 am Fri. The NAM3 and ARW
continue to be the most aggressive in developing gusts of 45-55+
mph along the ridgeline and the favored downslope regions of
the western slopes of the central and southern Greens. However,
these models also have the least amount of areal coverage of
rain this evening and overnight. Meanwhile, the HRRR and FV3
have more modest gusts, likely due to more extensive rain during
the peak of the jet, which would temper mixing potential.
Still, HREF mean wind gusts are somewhat concerning, with
45-55kt indicated on the immediate western slopes downwind of
the spine of the Greens. Much will depend on precipitation
coverage and exactly where the core of the jet lies in relation
to the top of the inversion layer. Given the continued
uncertainty, have increased forecast wind gusts to 35-45 mph,
just below Wind Advisory criteria, but have held off on any
headlines at this point. Still, locally higher gusts are
possible, and we wouldn`t be surprised to see some isolated
power outages due to downed trees or branches, especially in
those areas where trees still retain most of their leaves.
Rainwise, expect precipitation to be mostly focused in northern NY
through early afternoon, then a swath is progged to lift up through
VT late this afternoon into the overnight (with exact areal coverage
still in question, as mentioned above). Even if the rain trends
toward the more extensive model solutions, expect there will be
shadowing on the western sides of the higher elevations due to
downsloping winds, while the eastern slopes will see heavier
rainfall amounts. Rainfall should range from around a third of an
inch in the shadowed areas in the Northeast Kingdom to 1.5 inch or
more in the St Lawrence Valley; much of the remainder of the region
should get between 0.50 and 1.0 inch. Other than perhaps a few hours
early this morning, snow levels will be high enough to preclude any
snow, even at summit levels.
Main area of rain lifts north of the international border Friday
morning, and we may see a bit of a break in the precipitation as low
pressure moves directly overhead and some drier air briefly works
into the region. However, showers will start to fill back in from
west to east during the late afternoon and evening hours as the low
center moves into NH/ME, turning flow to the west/northwest.
Precipitation should gradually become focused along the western
slopes of the Adirondacks and Greens, though with Froude numbers
generally around 0.5 or less, showery conditions will be likely
further upwind into the eastern Champlain and St Lawrence Valleys.
The CT River Valley has the best chance of being mostly dry for the
evening time. Regardless, it`s going to be a blustery and raw
Halloween evening, as winds are expected to gust to around 30 mph
and temperatures only topping out in the upper 40s to mid 50s.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
As of 235 AM EDT Thursday...Low pressure will continue to pull away
well to our east Friday night and Saturday, keeping us under brisk
northwest flow. Precipitation will spread back into the region
Friday night, this time as widespread showers, particularly along
the northern and western slopes of the Adirondacks and Greens. Snow
levels will fall through this period, so anticipate the higher
elevations will change over to snow, mainly above 1500 ft. Some
minor snow accumulation will be possible. Showers will gradually
wane during the day Saturday, with dry weather resuming by late
afternoon, of course lingering longest over the northern mountains.
West to northwest winds will remain breezy through this period, with
gusts up to 35 mph expected. Temperatures will be chilly on
Saturday, with highs only topping out in the 40s areawide.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 131 PM EDT Thursday...Next week will start with mainly dry
weather and decreasing clouds as high pressure drifts eastward
across the mid-Atlantic on Sunday and temperatures struggle to
reach into the 40s and lower 50s in the afternoon. The day
might also be a bit brisk with wind gusts out of the
west/northwest 15-20 mph, decreasing Sunday night as lows fall
into a seasonable mid 20s to mid 30s. Monday, an upper level
trough and associated surface low pressure is expected to dig
into the region from around James Bay in Canada, advecting
milder air into the forecast area from the southwest. Highs will
get slightly above normal again in the upper 40s and 50s and
lows in the 30s and lower 40s Monday and Monday night.
Meanwhile, we`ll see the gradient tighten again and a low level
jet up to 55-60 knots at 850mb over the area bring gusty winds
at the surface west to southwest gusts up to 20-30 mph, higher
on mountaintops. A cold frontal boundary is anticipated to cross
the forecast area Monday evening and night, bringing with it
increased chances of precipitation about 50-80%, mostly rain
except in the higher terrain some snow overnight. This should
return highs to the 40s and lower 50s and lows in the 20s and
30s along with scattered terrain/upslope precipitation through
the midweek. High pressure will build in again from the
southeastern United States around Wednesday, but most global
models tee up another system for the late week as well.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Through 18Z Friday...Rain can be seen pushing north and east
across the forecast area this afternoon associated with a low
pressure system centered over the Ohio Valley, bringing with it
low ceilings, particularly at TAF site KMSS, which can expect
ceilings to remain below 800 feet above ground level through at
least 00Z-02Z Friday. KSLK, KMPV, and KRUT are reporting
ceilings 600-1500 feet AGL, though with easterly to
northeasterly flow present, we`re not expecting ceilings stay at
IFR levels in a sustained fashion until perhaps around the time
frame 09Z-16Z Friday when most sites are likely to have
prolonged IFR ceilings. Until then, these sites will likely
bounce between VFR and MVFR ceilings with occasional drops to
IFR cigs.
Any heavier rain shower may bring visibilities down this
evening and tonight, though confidence is not high on where and
when this will occur. Main area of rain lifts north of the
international border tomorrow morning, and we may see a bit of a
break in the precipitation as low pressure moves directly
overhead and some drier air briefly works into the region.
However, showers will start to fill back in from west to east
late Friday afternoon as low pressure shifts into eastern New
England. Gusty to locally strong winds and LLWS are expected to
continue this afternoon through the overnight hours. The
strongest gusts will be at KRUT up to 35-40kts from the
southeast, with up to 30kts at KSLK also from the southeast, and
25-30kts at KMSS and SLK from the northeast.
Outlook...
Friday Night: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Windy with
gusts to 30 kt. Definite SHRA, Likely SHSN.
Saturday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance SHRA,
Chance SHSN.
Saturday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight
chance SHRA, Slight chance SHSN.
Sunday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. NO SIG WX.
Sunday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA.
Monday: VFR. Chance SHRA.
Monday Night: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Chance SHRA.
Tuesday: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. Chance SHRA.
&&
.EQUIPMENT...
The TYX radar is down until further notice after a hardware
failure occurred. Replacement parts have been ordered and will
be installed. There is no ETA on its return to service.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...Wind Advisory until 5 AM EDT Friday for VTZ006-011-016>019.
NY...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Hastings
NEAR TERM...Hastings/Taber
SHORT TERM...Hastings
LONG TERM...Storm
AVIATION...Storm
EQUIPMENT...BTV
|
