814
FXUS61 KBTV 060519
AFDBTV
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
119 AM EDT Sun Sep 6 2026
.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
As of 359 PM EDT Saturday...
No significant changes.
&&
.KEY MESSAGES...
As of 359 PM EDT Saturday...
1. A few showers tonight but mainly dry through Tuesday.
2. Brief high pressure will give way to cyclonic flow and
periods of showery weather through Friday.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
As of 359 PM EDT Saturday...
KEY MESSAGE 1: An upper low remains centered just to the east heading
into Monday, keeping the region in a seasonably cool airmass. A few
showers will continue to move through tonight, with a bit more
widespread coverage over Vermont as a shortwave pivots through.
After the shortwave exits, dry conditions will prevail through
Monday. Skies will clear and it should be a great early fall
stretch. Radiational cooling will be efficient Sunday night, with
lows generally falling into the 40s and upper 30s. The current
forecast low at SLK is 37, but it could easily fall a few more
degrees if confidence increases in light winds. Warm air advection
will begin for Monday and Tuesday, but it will be unsuccessful in
causing a significant airmass change, with the humidity staying low
and temperatures remaining around seasonable. A few showers are
possible in northern areas Monday night and early Tuesday morning as
a dying cold front passes into the region.
KEY MESSAGE 2: A broad upper high will be positioned to our south
during the middle of next week. Between a departing trough and
another one moving towards James Bay, there will be a 500mb ridge
axis that extends well north into Quebec Province. Cool air will
remain locked in eastern Vermont Tuesday night, but clouds and warm
advection will begin impinging across northern New York. So eastern
Vermont will tumble into the mid 40s, along with cool hollows of the
Adirondacks, while most the rest of the region will stay in the 50s,
and perhaps a few spot 60s in the St. Lawrence Valley as we open up
Wednesday. Much of Wednesday will be dry, but cloudy. Winds at 850mb
will be speedy at 50-55 knots, but it appears we`ll have a modest
inversion below that layer. Nevertheless, the pressure gradient from
departing surface high pressure and a sub-990mb low to our north
will promote gusty winds (at least 25-35mph) across the region by
Wednesday afternoon. This will likely bring some 70s into the
region, although some raw guidance suggests temperatures may be
towards more the upper 60s to lower 70s range. Mid to late
afternoon, a leading surge of warm air will overrun departing cool,
stable air and produce some rain. Synoptic guidance is likely broad-
brushing rain given the strong mid-level flow that will likely
produce strong terrain shadowing downwind mountain areas. There`s
also plenty of dry air that must be saturated in the lower-levels.
As we get into the range of mesoscale guidance, this will probably
look less like a wash out. The occluded front and axis of a sharp
upper trough will progress east late Wednesday evening into
Wednesday night, and will be capable of additional showers and
perhaps a thunderstorm or two.
Following this, we`ll spend Thursday and Friday in cyclonic flow as
the sub 990mb low continue east. Lingering, intermittent shower
activity, especially in northwest facing slopes, will be possible.
Friday`s chances are somewhat more uncertain depending on how
quickly dry air filters into Vermont and northern New York. It will
be a notable surge of cool air behind this area of low pressure
likely preventing day time highs from reaching the 70s for much of
the area next Friday. Broad high pressure will establish itself
across the weekend, signaling that the next weekend should be very
nice.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Through 06Z Monday...A gradual lowering in ceilings is expected
between now and 12Z. Widespread MVFR ceilings with pockets of
IFR ceilings are expected overnight. Following sunrise, we will
see ceilings lift and clouds will dissipate through the morning
hours yielding widespread VFR conditions. Winds will be from the
north at 5 to 15 knots today going light and variable after
sunset.
Outlook...
Labor Day: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Monday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight chance
SHRA.
Tuesday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday: VFR. Likely SHRA, Slight chance TSRA.
Wednesday Night: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Definite
SHRA, Slight chance TSRA.
Thursday: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Chance SHRA.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.
&&
$$
WHAT HAS CHANGED...Myskowski
DISCUSSION...Myskowski/Haynes
AVIATION...Clay
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