760
FXUS61 KBTV 200528
AFDBTV
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
128 AM EDT Tue Oct 20 2026
.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
As of 235 PM EDT Monday...
No significant changes to the current forecast.
&&
.KEY MESSAGES...
As of 235 PM EDT Monday...
1. Quiet and dry weather is expected through the late week.
2. Dry and seasonable conditions continue through next weekend.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
As of 235 PM EDT Monday...
KEY MESSAGE 1: Strong ridging remains centered over the area today
associated with a 1035mb high centered over the Canadian Maritimes.
Temperatures have warmed nicely under clear skies as a result this
afternoon into the low to mid 60s for many locations. Another clear
night is in store with temperatures lowering into the mid 30s to low
40s. Some cooler air may be possible in the Adirondacks and northern
St. Lawrence Valley as winds turn to the northeast beyond midnight,
leading to cold air drainage from Canada. A weak moisture starved
cold front will slide south from Canada late tonight into Tuesday
and wash out over the area with no precipitation expected, though
some morning clouds and cooler temperatures can be expected Tuesday
morning. Sunny skies will prevail thereafter with large scale
ridging continuing with low humidity and light winds through late
week. While prevailing confidence remains high for no precipitation
through late week, there are some signs of light sprinkles across
the spine of the Greens late Thursday as another moisture starved
cold front moves through. While GEFS ensembles show 0% of any
measurable precipitation, the Euro ensembles have been fairly stable
denoting a 60% chance for at least some measurable rain along the
western slopes of the Greens Thursday afternoon. Have introduced a
small area of slight chance PoPs (20% or less) for the
aforementioned areas. Given the stout dry layer we will have,
showers should they develop, likely would be virga moreover, keeping
confidence on the high side for little to no precipitation.
KEY MESSAGE 2: A classic stretch of fall weather will continue late
this week and through the weekend. Surface high pressure will build
south out of Quebec for Friday, bringing cold air advection. A brief
flurry is possible in the mountains early Friday behind the cold
front but moisture will be significantly lacking. Highs will drop
into the upper 40s to around 50 on Friday. The high should be
centered almost directly overhead over the weekend, leading to clear
skies, light winds and highs in the 50s. Most mornings will be
frosty during this stretch, with lows in the 20s and 30s.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Through 06Z Wednesday...The aviation challenge this morning is
the potential for fog/low cigs associated with weak backdoor
cold front. Current nighttime fog product shows clear skies
across our taf sites, but very little spread in temp/dewpoint
noted at MSS/SLK, with MSS already below cross over value. Given
this along with sounding data sharp llvl inversion feel some
br/fog with IFR conditions are possible (40-50%), so have
utilized tempo between 09-12z at mss. At SLK/EFK thinking winds
of 10-15 knots at 300 feet above ground level should limit IFR
potential, while rest of our taf sites stay VFR for the next 24
hours. A wind shift to the north/northeast is expected between
08z and 12z this morning.
Outlook...
Wednesday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Thursday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Thursday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Friday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Friday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Saturday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.
&&
$$
WHAT HAS CHANGED...Danzig
DISCUSSION...Danzig/Myskowski
AVIATION...Taber
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