026
FXUS61 KBTV 091854
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
254 PM EDT Fri Oct 9 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
As of 254 PM EDT Friday...

Rainfall amounts on Sunday have increased slightly with most
locations seeing between a quarter to half of an inch of rain with
closer to a tenth of an inch of rain near the Canadian Border.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
As of 254 PM EDT Friday...

1. Showers end this afternoon with drier weather expected
through Sunday afternoon. Rainfall associated with the remnants of
Hurricane Isaias will impact the region Sunday evening and overnight
but not flooding is expected.

2. Widespread showers are expected on Tuesday ahead of a
seasonably strong frontal system, leading to sharply cooler and
drier weather for Wednesday into Thursday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
As of 254 PM EDT Friday...

KEY MESSAGE 1: We continue to be under the influence of an upper level
trough with a pocket of cold air aloft. This has lead to convective
showers once again which should taper off this evening with the loss
of daytime heating and building mid-level heights and increasing
subsidence. Deep layer ridging will then begin to build into the
region overnight with Saturday looking to be a beautiful but chilly
day with plenty of sunshine, light winds, and highs in the mid 50s.
This ridge will remain entrenched across the North Country through
Sunday morning before the remnants of Hurricane Isaias will shunt
the ridge eastward. Widespread rainfall will hold off until after
sunset on Sunday for most locations with a quarter to half of an
inch of rain expected for many locations. Areas near the Canadian
Border will likely see the least rainfall with amounts closer to a
tenth of an inch. The RRFS and NAM are hinting at a pocket of
frontogenetic forcing in the northwest sector of the remnants Sunday
night and are beginning to show a pocket of enhanced rain totals
nearing 1.5 inches. This will likely change run to run and with the
lack of mesoscale models having the temporal resolution to analyze
this feature, we won`t know about placement of this possible banded
precipitation until tomorrow afternoon most likely. Nevertheless,
the rainfall seen Sunday night, even if it`s in the 1-1.5 inch rain
locally, will be highly beneficial with no flood concerns
anticipated at this time. A strengthening mid-level jet Sunday night
will act to quickly shift these remnants eastward with dry
conditions expected by daybreak on Monday.

KEY MESSAGE 2: Following the rain on Sunday night, another high
probability rainfall event (about 100% chance of rain) is setting up
for Tuesday. It appears moisture from the remnants of Tropical Storm
Rachel in the eastern Pacific gets pushed into a strengthening front
approaching from the north. An associated jet streak situated to our
northeast will help increase large scale lift such that rain becomes
widespread ahead of the boundary beginning early Tuesday morning.
Would expect numerous showers and even a chance of thunder (around
10% is too low to mention in the forecast) with some elevated
instability likely. The temperature forecast for Tuesday given the
position of the thermally strong cold front is rather uncertain.
However, very moist low level air will limit temperatures even in
the warm side of the boundary. Meanwhile, shallow cold air advection
is noted in forecast soundings, such that areas such as the northern
St. Lawrence Valley could see temperatures fall into the 40s during
the day.

Currently, probabilities of rainfall in excess of 1" during this
event are mainly 20-45% and trend a bit higher towards northernmost
New York and Vermont. For 0.5" these probabilities are about 40-70%.
The evolution of this system Tuesday afternoon/evening is actually
fairly uncertain, with one cluster of guidance favoring a faster
exit and others keeping rain in the area through Tuesday night. It
appears the front will finally clear the region as low pressure
deepens to our east by Wednesday morning, in what could be a long
duration rainfall event. Perhaps there will be enough moisture for
some early season upslope mountain snow showers Tuesday night/early
Wednesday if the cold air advection is sufficiently strong.
Otherwise, while there is some spread in the upper air pattern for
the remainder of next week, overall the consensus right now is for
seasonably cool and breezy conditions on Wednesday ahead of a ridge
of high pressure that preserves dry weather through at least
Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Through 18Z Saturday...Mainly VFR conditions expected through
the TAF period, with localized MVFR ceilings early this morning
at SLK. Elsewhere, ceilings will remain 4000+ ft. Clouds lift
after 14z as mixing increases and MVFR will prevail thereafter.
Additional scattered showers will develop again today, but only
MVFR visibility restrictions possible briefly. Winds will trend
a bit more NW and increasing to 6-10 kt with gusts to 20 kt
after 14z.

Outlook...

Saturday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Sunday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
Sunday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance SHRA.
Columbus Day: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. NO SIG WX.
Monday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Likely SHRA.
Tuesday: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Likely SHRA.
Tuesday Night: Mainly MVFR, with areas IFR possible. Chance SHRA.
Wednesday: Mainly MVFR, with local VFR possible. NO SIG WX.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$

WHAT HAS CHANGED...Clay
DISCUSSION...Kutikoff/Clay
AVIATION...Kutikoff