277
FXUS61 KBTV 010656
AFDBTV
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
156 AM EST Sun Nov 1 2026
.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
As of 152 AM EST Sunday...
Rainfall prospects for Tuesday are somewhat higher, and temperatures
for Wednesday have been trended upwards to near record warmth in
the St. Lawrence Valley.
&&
.KEY MESSAGES...
As of 152 AM EST Sunday...
1. Temperatures becoming warmer heading into November.
2. A cold front will move through the Northeast late this week
bringing breezes and periods of rain possibly Thursday through the
weekend.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
As of 152 AM EST Sunday...
KEY MESSAGE 1: Little in the manner of impactful weather is expected
over the next several days. High pressure will move offshore, and
that will allow warm air to gradually filter into the region under
steady south to southwest flow. This will bring 50s today, and then
60s tomorrow. It`ll still be on the dry side, but winds will
generally be lighter where the lowest humidity values will be.
Nighttime temperatures will also trend warmer, with only cooler
hollows of sheltered valleys east of any mountain slopes below
freezing tonight. There`s still a tilted mid to upper level ridge
that will be positioned to our west through about Tuesday. As it
begins to translate eastwards, depending on the positioning of an
upper vort, the surge of warm, moist advection could become
collocated with marginal synoptic forcing. This would result in an
area of clouds and light rain, mainly along the international border
Tuesday into Tuesday night. Not every model scenario depicts rain,
and so PoPs are mainly at or below 50 percent at this time.
Once the upper ridge is offshore, temperatures will climb into the
mid 60s to lower 70s for Wednesday in response to somewhat tighter
pressure gradients as a surface low tracks over far northern Quebec
Province. A few daily record highs may be in striking distance.
Ushering in the warmth will be south winds gusting around 15-25 mph
with localized observations around 30 mph, especially in the broader
valleys.
KEY MESSAGE 2: Model consensus favors a full meridional trough ejecting
out of the Plains Wednesday night with a cold frontal passage
through the Northeast between Thursday and Friday. Timing spread has
narrowed a little, but model discrepancies remain on how fast the
high pressure shifts eastward, the timing of the front itself, and
the strength of frontal dynamics. Some models are stalling the
boundary in the vicinity of Vermont streaming ample moisture across
the region while others are more progressive with flow resulting in
more distinct rounds of rainfall. While the details are sparse, most
guidance shares that there is a good shot at an extended period of
rain chances which the trailing upper low becoming at least
partially cut off. This would promote lingering shower chances
through the weekend potentially into early next week. The details
that are more predictable are continued warm temperatures under
southerly flow Thursday with some southerly breezes ongoing as well.
Beyond Thursday, temperatures are favored to cool back towards
seasonal averages with coldest air locked well north of the region.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Through 00Z Monday...VFR through the forecast period with no
precipitation expected as high pressure continues to build into
the region. Lingering SCT/BKN cigs in the 035-060 AGL range to
trend SKC at all terminals in the 00-06Z time frame under light
and variable winds. SKC conditions continue through Sunday with
winds trending light south to southwesterly from 4-8 kts by
afternoon.
Outlook...
Monday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Monday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
Tuesday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight
chance SHRA.
Wednesday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA.
Thursday: VFR. Chance SHRA.
&&
.CLIMATE...
Temperatures could approach record highs on November 4th with
the greatest chance at KMSS.
Record | Forecast
71 (2022) | 71
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.
&&
$$
WHAT HAS CHANGED...Haynes
DISCUSSION...Boyd/Haynes
AVIATION...Boyd
CLIMATE...NWS BTV
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