110
FXUS61 KBTV 031126
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
726 AM EDT Mon Aug 3 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
As of 213 AM EDT Monday...

No significant changes have been made to the forecast. A strong
thunderstorm or two will be possible across Vermont this afternoon
with a slight risk of flooding across northern New York and western
Vermont.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
As of 213 AM EDT Monday...

1. Widespread rainfall and a few strong thunderstorms expected
today.

2. Drier weather on Tuesday and Wednesday; showers return on
Thursday.

3. Seasonably warm and unsettled weather expected for the
end of this week into next weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
As of 213 AM EDT Monday...

KEY MESSAGE 1: The Bermuda Ridge across the western Atlantic continues
to strengthen and has shifted northward slightly overnight. This is
causing the upper level trough and associated surface reflection to
move slowly across the Northeast. Much of the region has been in a
lull for precipitation over the past few hours but increasing upper
level diffluence and moisture advection will soon point the fire hose
across portions of northern New York and Vermont. Given the lack of
rainfall thus far, we are basically starting from scratch with soils
that can absorb a decent amount of rainfall. An airmass with PWAT
values between 1.9-2.1 inches (99th percentile) will move overhead
soon and will be supportive of very efficient rain processes with
the freezing level between 13kft and 14kft. Rainfall rates could
reach an inch per hour in some of the embedded convective elements
but rainfall rates overall should remain well under a half inch per
hour. Still, with multiple rounds of showers possible through the
day, the threat for flash flooding does exist albeit on the very low
side based on how things have played out thus far.

This afternoon is a bit of a wild card as we will have the potential
for a few strong to locally severe thunderstorms across Vermont.
This potential is very conditional and is dependent on us being able
to see a few breaks in the clouds behind the initial round (about to
come through now) and the frontal passage this afternoon. Lapse
rates will generally be moist adiabatic as a result of the
anomalously high PWAT values but any surface heating could allow for
more dry adiabatic lapse rates in the low levels that could mix down
some 40-50 knot winds down to the surface. These storms are not
figured to be widespread although some of the latest high-res
guidance does show a distinct line of convection associated with the
cold front. Basically, it`ll be a messy day with several possible
hazards so it`ll be a good day to keep an eye on the weather. These
showers and thunderstorms will shift eastward after sunset with high
pressure quickly building into the region tonight into Tuesday
morning.

KEY MESSAGE 2: Surface high pressure will settle into the region on
Tuesday while the Bermuda high continues to build north and west.
This will set the stage for deep layer ridging and bring sunny skies
and dry weather to the region on Tuesday and Wednesday. A building
trough across the central US will displace the Bermuda High a bit to
the south on Thursday and will open up the stream of deep Gulf
moisture back to the region. With upper level diffluence in place,
some decent mid-level forcing will coincide with the moisture to
bring scattered to numerous showers to the region Thursday afternoon
with the potential for a few strong thunderstorms.

KEY MESSAGE 3: No significant changes have been made to the forecast
for the end of the week into the weekend, with warm and unsettled
weather expected as the region remains in between a Bermuda high to
our east and troughiness across the Plains. Broad southwesterly flow
across the region will allow for plentiful moisture to advect into
to the region, with occasional shortwaves passing overhead helping
to drive shower chances. As usual in this time frame, there is some
uncertainty in to the overall extent and timing of precipitation,
but several rounds of showers and possible thunderstorms look likely
at this point. With fairly weak forcing and limited instability,
severe weather looks unlikely however areas of locally heavy rain
will be possible with PWAT values near 2 inches, although there
should be enough flow to limit any flood threat but trends will need
to be monitored as we get closer. Temperatures during this time
frame look to be on the warmer side, with highs climbing into the
80s areawide this weekend, with increased humidity making it feel a
little uncomfortable at times.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Through 12Z Tuesday...A mix of VFR and MVFR conditions currently
prevail across terminals this morning as scattered showers
continue to move through the region. Periods of MVFR conditions
are expected to persist over the next several hours, primarily
due to ceilings. Shower activity may wane a bit towards the
afternoon, but a frontal passage may bring an additional round
of showers and thunderstorms to the region after 18Z or so, with
the best chances for thunderstorms currently across eastern
Vermont. Winds will continue to become more northwesterly
through the forecast period. It will be a bit breezy throughout
the afternoon, with gusts generally 15 to 20 knots, although 30
knot gusts will be possible. Some pockets of LLWS are possible,
especially across some of the mountain terminals. High pressure
will build in overnight tonight behind the front, bringing
clearing skies and light winds.

Outlook...

Tuesday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Thursday: VFR. Chance SHRA, Chance TSRA.
Thursday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance
SHRA, Slight chance TSRA.
Friday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Likely SHRA, Chance
TSRA.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$

WHAT HAS CHANGED...Clay
DISCUSSION...Kremer/Clay
AVIATION...Kremer