653
FXUS61 KBTV 280102
AFDBTV
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
902 PM EDT Tue Oct 27 2026
.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
As of 224 PM EDT Tuesday...
Have increased the winds in the wider valleys of the region late
Thursday and Friday ahead and associated with a cold frontal passage.
&&
.KEY MESSAGES...
As of 224 PM EDT Tuesday...
1. Cold winter like temperatures tonight will be followed by
gradual warming towards the late week.
2. A cold front late Thursday into Friday will bring chances
for light rain showers in addition to breezy to gusty winds.
3. Dry weather this weekend, shower chances return next week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
As of 224 PM EDT Tuesday...
KEY MESSAGE 1: High pressure centered over the Southeast will continue
to drive clear skies and cold northwest air into the region through
tonight. With clear skies remaining into tonight, strong radiational
cooling will take place with many locations seeing the coldest air
of the season, with near record cold across portions of Vermont.
Temperatures will fall to the low 20s for most of the region,
outside of the higher terrain where a steep inversion will keep lows
in the upper 20s to near 30. Near record cold at our climate sites
including Montpelier, St. Johnsbury, and Plattsburgh will be
possible tonight. A few high clouds late tonight look to limit the
prime radiational cooling time tonight across much of northern New
York, otherwise a few records there might also be in jeopardy.
Temperatures will gradually warm and trend to normal as high
pressure shifts east offshore Wednesday turning winds to the south,
advecting in warmer air. A glancing mid level trough will bring some
cloudy skies through the area tomorrow, but surface-mid levels will
be too dry to see any precipitation. Temperatures will be 5-10
degrees warmer tomorrow with highs in the low to mid 50s, with our
cool spots near the International Border and the Northeast Kingdom.
KEY MESSAGE 2: By Thursday, southwest strong waa ushered in by a 45-55
knot 850 LLJ will warm temperatures steeply well into the 60s. Highs
in the mid to upper 60s will be possible with areas in the St.
Lawrence Valley nearing even 70. The warm temperatures will come at
a price though, as southwest winds will increase to 20-30 MPH,
particularly in the St. Lawrence and Champlain Valleys. Model
soundings continue to trend up with top of the mixed layer in the
recent model suite averaging around 35 MPH. Mixing of these stronger
winds will be complex as the timing of the precipitation associated
with the cold front will be entering the region around the time of
peak mixing, which could temper gusts slightly lower. Regardless,
Thursday afternoon in the St. Lawrence Valley and near Lake
Champlain will be gusty. Precipitation will generally be scattered
with the front due to lingering dry air at the surface, though
moisture advection with this system will be better than our system
Monday. A few hundreths up to a tenth of an inch or rainfall is
expected, focused in the St. Lawrence Valley, Adirondacks, and
northern Greens. A few showers will linger into Friday along the
northern mountains, but we will begin to trend drier by Friday
afternoon. Winds will turn to the west northwest behind the front
which will bring drier and cooler air by Friday afternoon. Lapse
rates will steepen Friday afternoon as we dry out with good vertical
mixing across our northern wider valleys. Winds will increase with
better chances for seeing some stronger winds up to 30 MPH. Have
trended winds up as confidence grows for these stronger channeled
winds Friday afternoon.
KEY MESSAGE 3: Surface high pressure builds over our region for the
weekend bringing dry weather and temperatures slightly warmer than
seasonal normals for daytime highs, and cooler than normal overnight
minimum temperatures. Sunday night into early next week high
pressure moves east of our region and will have some shower chances
next week, though lots of uncertainty at this stage.
&&
.AVIATION /01Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Through 00Z Thursday...There will be minimal weather concerns to
aviators for this forecast period with the region under high
pressure. Light winds expected overnight becoming light out of
the south after 12Z with CIGS over 8000ft moving in. There could
be some light virga from this deck at times, but the sub-cloud
layer is dry and any liquid is unlikely to reach the ground.
Outlook...
Wednesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Thursday: VFR. Chance SHRA.
Thursday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance
SHRA.
Friday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight chance SHRA.
Friday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Saturday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. NO SIG WX.
Saturday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Sunday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
&&
.CLIMATE...
A couple daily record lows are possible for October 28th. Below
is the current record and the current forecast as of 230 PM
October 27th.
October 28:
KMPV: 20/1974 - Forecast 21F
KPBG: 21/1999 - Forecast 25F
K1V4: 22/1999 - Forecast 19F
&&
.EQUIPMENT...
Routine observations from KSLK ASOS are unavailable until
further notice. While the site is operating, it is not able to
disseminate observations normally at this time. Technicians are
aware of the issue, but time of return to service is unknown.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.
&&
$$
WHAT HAS CHANGED...Danzig
DISCUSSION...Neiles/Danzig
AVIATION...Boyd
CLIMATE...NWS BTV
EQUIPMENT...NWS BTV
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