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  Monday September 16, 2019


NWS Area Forecast Discussion

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FXUS61 KBTV 120025

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
825 PM EDT Wed Sep 11 2019

A cold front moving through the forecast area this evening will
briefly stall over southern New England late tonight into
Thursday morning allowing a convective complex over the Great
Lakes to bring showers to central and southern portions of the
forecast area during Thursday morning. Thereafter, high
pressure will provide clear and cool conditions for Thursday
night through Friday. Showers return for Friday night into
Saturday, with the weekend ending dry for Sunday.


As of 811 PM EDT Wednesday...Surface cold front continues to
push southward, and at 00Z extended from southern St. Lawrence
county ewd across the Adirondacks and into the southern
Champlain Valley. A narrow line of showers continues in
association with frontal convergence, and maintained 20-30 PoPs
through midnight to account for this activity and potential for
some light rainfall (generally <0.10" expected).

As the front progresses southeastward tonight it is expected to
stall/slow across central NY into s-central VT. A decaying convective
complex currently over central lower MI and sern Ontario will
track eastward along the boundary, and should see redevelopment
of rain shower activity across the southern half of the forecast
area toward daybreak on Thursday...lasting through the remainder
of the morning hours. Did push time of arrival a bit later based
on current radar and 18Z NAM-3km model trends. Ultimately,
surface front will shift south of the forecast area by the
evening rush hour. North of a line from Saranac Lake to
Montpelier, conditions should remain dry and trend sunnier than
our southern counterparts with highs north in the mid/upper 60s
behind the front, and low/mid 60s south where thicker cloudiness
will prevail.

Behind the front for Thursday night, skies rapidly clear out
from north to south as high pressure builds in. Clearing skies
and abating winds will setup favorable conditions for fog
development along with the potential for some isolated frost as
temperatures fall into the 40s area-wide, and locally 30s in the
hollows of the Adirondacks and Northeast Kingdom.


As of 329 PM EDT Wednesday...Friday will remain quiet and dry
with ridge of surface high pressure remaining over the region.
High begins to slide eastward overnight making way for next
approaching frontal system as a low pressure system lifts well
north of the region. Warm front lifts across the area Friday
night and showers will begin to move into our area from the
west after 1am. Winds will become a bit gusty out of the south
southwest ahead of approaching cold front. High temperatures on
Friday will reach the upper 60s to lower 70s, very near to
seasonal normals. Then mild temperatures are anticipated
overnight with clouds and precipitation moving into the area,
generally lower 40s to mid 50s.


As of 329 PM EDT Wednesday...Showers will continue ahead of
approaching cold front Saturday morning, still not seeing much
instability so haven`t mentioned thunder at this time. The cold
front will exit to the south and east later Saturday, bringing
precipitation to an end. High pressure and drier weather build
in for Saturday night. Uncertainty grows thereafter as models
are showing little agreement on placement/timing/amplitude of an
upper trough and associated features that will affect the
region through early next week. Have stayed close to a model
blend, which gave slight chance/low chance PoPs and near normal
temperatures from Sunday onward.


Through 00Z Friday...Cold front moving southward across the
Adirondacks and central VT is bringing a northerly wind shift,
with a period of wind gusts to 22kt possible through 02Z. Also,
will see brief rain showers at RUT/MPV through 02Z. Otherwise,
anticipate developing low stratus overnight, with ceilings
generally lowering to between 2-4 kft with HIR TRRN OBSCD. Next
mid-level trough, across lower MI and sern Ontario this
evening, will bring periods of -SHRA at SLK/RUT/MPV during the
12-16Z time frame on Thursday, with generally dry conditions
further north. Likewise, should see a gradual improvement in
ceilings back to VFR across the northern TAF locations of
MSS/PBG/BTV after 15-16Z Thursday, and eventually toward
clearing skies late in the TAF period. Winds during the day
Thursday will generally remain N-NE at 8-10kt across the region.


Thursday Night: VFR. Patchy BR.
Friday: VFR. Patchy BR.
Friday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA.
Saturday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance SHRA.
Saturday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Slight
chance SHRA.
Sunday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight chance SHRA.
Sunday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight chance
Monday: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. Slight chance SHRA.




NEAR TERM...Banacos/Lahiff
LONG TERM...Neiles

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