917
FXUS61 KBTV 040723
AFDBTV
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
223 AM EST Wed Nov 4 2026
.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
As of 223 AM EST Wednesday...
Today`s high temperatures were slightly increased.
&&
.KEY MESSAGES...
As of 223 AM EST Wednesday...
1. Near record high temperatures are expected today with mostly
sunny conditions and limited, localized fire weather concerns.
2. Showers are expected on Thursday and possibly linger into
Thursday night, then mainly dry weather will follow for Friday. No
impactful weather is expected.
3. Repeated chances for showers this weekend and early next
week with temperatures gradually decreasing towards seasonal levels.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
As of 220 AM EST Wednesday...
KEY MESSAGE 1: Record high temperatures for the date remain on track
for today; see Climate section of the forecast discussion for
details. Progged 925 millibar temperatures of 16 to 18 Celsius, near
climatological maximum values, supports high temperatures in the low
to mid 70s with dry adiabatic lapse rates across our valley
locations. The most unusually extreme temperatures are favored for
the Adirondacks and northeastern Vermont, where the Extreme Forecast
Index most recent run shows a high confidence of near record high
temperatures. This has trended more extreme with time, so we have
used the 90th percentile temperature guidance for high temperatures.
The resulting forecast highs look consistent with recent
verification of observed temperatures and for a scenario with
sunshine and warm air advection from the southwest. Relative
humidity will remain fairly moderate based on guidance and observed
values upstream in the Midwest, putting a likely minimum in the 40%
range. A few wind gusts may exceed 25 MPH this morning with
channeled flow in the Champlain Valley, but winds aloft generally
look too light to cause much concern even if boundary layer mixing
is deeper than modeled.
KEY MESSAGE 2: A weakening cold front will put an end to our dry and
very warm weather. Two rounds of showers appears on the docket for
Thursday, with the first round being relatively disordered showers
tied to a surge of anomalous moisture sliding northeastward through
our region. This precipitation looks strongly forced with relatively
deep moisture such that rain chances will be nearly certain for at
least a brief period of time during the daytime hours. Towards
evening, while moisture will be more limited, sufficiently steep
lapse rates to yield a ribbon of instability and a chance of loosely
organized showers that will track to the east across northern
Vermont Thursday night. As the front exits/washes out to our east,
think flow will be light enough amidst rich near surface moisture to
support some patchy fog and drizzle regardless of how widespread
these evening showers wind up being. The lack of a wind shift will
keep temperatures and humidity above normal into Friday. However,
conditions look mainly dry with our region sitting between an
inverted trough to our east and an incoming upper level low to our
west. Most likely rainfall amounts being offered are mainly 0.1" to
0.33", but with convective nature of some of the rain, footprints
will be quite variable.
KEY MESSAGE 3: Multi-level closed low pressure over the Great Lakes and
surface low pressure driving northward along the Northeast Coast
this weekend will bring increased chances for precipitation, about
45-75% in Vermont and 25-55% across northern New York Friday night.
Nighttime temperatures will remain well above seasonal normals with
projected lows in the mid 30s to mid 40s with plenty of cloud cover
around. Chances for precipitation decrease on Saturday as surface
forcing pulls northeastward away from the area, but rain shower
chances still remain around 35-65% throughout the day as upper level
troughing stalls overhead. Temperatures will continue to be warmer
than normal values, but should feel cool compared to the week`s
record warmth. Highs Saturday are expected to be only in the 50s and
lower 60s. Upper low pressure will head away from the region
Saturday night, lowering precip chances on Saturday night, and to
follow Sunday daytime chances decrease further in brief weak
ridging. Low temperatures during this period are expected to fall
each night, from the 30s and lower 40s Saturday night down to the
20s and lower 30s early next week, which could mean snow mixing in
with the rain at higher elevations and colder spots. Highs will also
follow a decreasing trend, though more gradual, with temperatures
hitting the mid 40s and 50s each afternoon through early next week
and shower chances each day under cyclonic flow.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Through 00Z Thursday...A few low clouds are hanging on at SLK this
evening and it remains MVFR. Elsewhere terminals are VFR. BY the end
of the evening conditions are expected to return to VFR at SLK and
VFR conditions are expected to continue at all terminals through
tomorrow. A few showers will be around this evening but they will be
too light to cause significant visibility reductions. Winds will
generally be under 10 KT tonight, but strong westerly winds aloft
will cause LLWS, especially across northern New York and northern
Vermont. During the day tomorrow, LLWS will end but surface winds
will increase. While most terminals should see southerly to
southwesterly winds around 10 KT, BTV, MSS and PBG will likely have
gusts up to 20 KT.
Outlook...
Thursday: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Chance SHRA.
Thursday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance
SHRA.
Friday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight chance SHRA.
Friday Night: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Chance RA.
Saturday: Mainly MVFR, with areas IFR possible. Chance RA.
Saturday Night: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Chance RA.
Sunday: Mainly MVFR, with areas IFR possible. Slight chance RA.
&&
.CLIMATE...
As of 223 AM EST Wednesday...
Extreme warmth for this time of year is likely today. As a result,
some daily record temperatures may be set, with the greatest
chance at KMSS.
High Temperatures:
Site | Record | Forecast
KMSS | 71 (2022) | 75
KBTV | 73 (1982) | 73
KPBG | 72 (1990) | 72
KMPV | 72 (2022) | 74
KSLK | 74 (1944) | 73
SJBV1 | 73 (1990) | 75
Low Temperatures also in jeopardy:
Today:
Site | Record | Forecast
KMSS | 51 (1975) | 55
KBTV | 54 (2022) | 56
Tomorrow:
KBTV: Record is 60 in 2022
KPBG: Record is 50 in 2024
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.
&&
$$
WHAT HAS CHANGED...Kutikoff
DISCUSSION...Storm/Kutikoff
AVIATION...Myskowski
CLIMATE...NWS BTV
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