680
FXUS61 KBTV 031743
AFDBTV
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
143 PM EDT Sat Oct 3 2026
.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
As of 222 AM EDT Saturday...
No significant changes made.
&&
.KEY MESSAGES...
As of 222 AM EDT Saturday...
1. Generally cool weather is expected over the next several
days. Sunday will be briefly warmer, but a front will cross on
Monday bringing gusty winds, showers, and a return to the cooler
weather.
2. Cold air mid week will moderate by the late week with a
pattern change for the weekend.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
As of 222 AM EDT Saturday...
KEY MESSAGE 1: A broad 1028mb surface high will be positioned to our
west over the Great Lakes region today. This will keep northerly
flow across the region. Fortunately, the cool air coming in will be
more of a glancing blow with zonal flow aloft. Still, it`ll feel
plenty cool with highs lingering mainly in the 50s, except for a few
60s across south-central Vermont. Mountain summits will likely be in
the upper 30s to mid 40s this afternoon. Abundant dry air will
promote clear skies. We should radiate quite efficiently tonight
with these conditions, and that will bring overnight lows in the 30-
40 F range.
High pressure will start moving east Sunday, and south to southwest
winds return. A more moderate day in the 60s is expected for Sunday,
with a warmer night around 40-50 F. These warmer conditions will
come with some wind, though as pressure gradients tighten against
departing high pressure and the next approaching system. Anticipate
10-15 mph winds, and up to 20 mph in the Champlain Valley. The
attendant frontal boundary will arrive pre-dawn through the early
afternoon. The moisture is not great, but the dynamics of a strong
upper jet and modest frontal support could produce a broken narrow
line of rain. Larger synoptic scale motion will yield stronger winds
behind this front. Combined with the strength of cold air behind it,
the 50s forecast on Monday and 25-35 mph gusts across the region
will feel nippy. Advective cold will result in mid 20s to upper 30s.
The winds may still preclude frost formation in the Champlain
Valley, but plenty cool. Moisture quickly departs behind the frontal
boundary, but if there`s anything lingering, a few flakes or some
riming is feasible for mountain terrain.
KEY MESSAGE 2: Strong northwest flow will continue through Tuesday with
temperatures feeling solidly like fall, before our air mass
moderates towards the weekend. Highs Tuesday will struggle to reach
50 in the higher terrain with low to mid 50s elsewhere with breezy
northwest winds as our flow pattern remains fairly confluent. Skies
will remain clear into Tuesday night with one of the coldest nights
of the season expected. With a stout dry 700-500mb layer, strong
radiational cooling will take place with many places falling into
the low to mid 30s. Some patchy frost will be possible in the
sheltered locations, but with temperatures falling under clear
skies, almost the entire region could experience a freeze, with the
Champlain valley remaining on alert at this time. This will likely
be a curtain call for gardeners sensitive plants in the broad
valleys.
Temperatures will slowly moderate back up towards the weekend with
the approach of a broad long wave trough associated with a deepening
upper low over the Hudson Bay. Highs will warm to the upper 50s to
mid 60s, with overnight lows in the upper 30s to mid 40s. A large
scale cyclonic gyre will shift south from the interior of Canada
leading to several shortwave passages beginning late next week into
the weekend. Daily diurnally enhanced showers will be possible
starting Thursday with increasing cloud cover into the weekend. In
addition to increasing shower chances, each shortwave passage will
bring with it some breezy to gusty winds to northern New York, and
likely some channeled flow in the Champlain Valley each day.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Through 18Z Sunday...Aside from early morning fog at climatologically
favored terminals, VFR conditions will continue. High pressure and
associated dry air has scoured out moisture today; some scattered
shallow clouds present near Vermont terminals earlier have quickly
trended towards SKC. The only potential impacts through the period
will be related to radiation fog. Periods of dense fog will likely
result after about 06Z at SLK, MPV, and EFK. With much drier air in
place this afternoon compared to yesterday, it will take more time
for fog to form but temperatures are favored to drop well below
crossover values. Have noted as the center of high pressure moves to
the northeast of the airspace overnight, low level southeasterly
flow develops and could disrupt fog at MPV and have ended fog a bit
earlier there compared to EFK. Following 12Z, increasing southerly
flow will occur, leading to winds at Champlain Valley terminals
gusting near or a bit above 20 knots, while EFK and MPV see
sustained winds also reach 10-12 knots with somewhat lighter winds
at SLK and MSS.
Outlook...
Sunday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA.
Monday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight chance SHRA.
Monday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
Thursday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.
&&
$$
WHAT HAS CHANGED...Haynes
DISCUSSION...Haynes/Danzig
AVIATION...Kutikoff
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