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  Tuesday May 23, 2017

 

NWS Area Forecast Discussion


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000
FXUS61 KBTV 190218
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
1018 PM EDT Thu May 18 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
After another day of record heat, isolated strong to severe
thunderstorms are expected through this evening...with the primary
threat being gusty winds and hail. Much cooler and drier weather
arrives by midday Friday with some patchy frost possible by Saturday
morning. A warm front will produce scattered showers on Sunday
afternoon with temperatures returning to near normal.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
As of 1015 PM EDT Thursday...Updated to remove svr watch box
along with large hail/damaging winds. Continued to mention gusty
winds associated with line of showers/storms over northern ny.
Latest radar shows low level velocity of 45 to 55 knots around
3500 agl...and Malone obs indicated gust to 34 knots with line.
Some expecting gusts up to 45 mph possible through midnight
associated with line. Rest of forecast remains unchanged.

A very mild start to the evening expected with temps mainly in
the 70s to near 80f in areas away from convection...but as
strong cold front swings across our region after
midnight...expect temps to quickly fall. By morning... expecting
temps to range from the upper 40s slv/western dacks to lower 60s
near VSF.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
As of 350 PM EDT Thursday...sharp cold front is draped across
southern New England at 18z Friday with moderate low level caa
continuing across our cwa. Progged 850mb temps range between
10-12c around 12z...but fall between 2-4c by 18z
Friday...supporting nearly steady temps or falling during the
morning hours. Thinking clouds break up during the afternoon
hours and temps warm back into the mid 50s to lower 60s most
locations...but with breezy northwest will make for a chilly mid
May day. Some lingering mainly terrain drive rain showers are
possible from 12z to 16z...but rapid drying aloft... will quickly
dissipate showers by Friday afternoon.

Friday Night thru Saturday Night...1030mb high pres builds into the
region during this time period with dry conditions and cool temps.
Based on clear skies and winds decoupling in deeper protected
valleys...expect some patchy frost to develop. Best chances for
frost will be dacks and valleys of central/northern VT...including
the NEK. Will mention lows ranging from the mid/upper 20s NEK/SLK to
near 40F CPV/SLV. A nice day is expected on Saturday with plenty of
sunshine and slightly below normal temps.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 317 PM EDT Thursday...Upper level ridge and exiting
surface high pressure off the Atlantic seaboard will keep dry
conditions across the North Country to end the weekend with
increasing clouds ahead of our next system encroaching from the
west during the afternoon. Deep low pressure over southern
Ontario tracks eastward into central Quebec Sunday night through
Monday dragging a cold front through northern New York and
Vermont with showers developing late Sunday evening across
western areas and becoming widespread after midnight through
Monday as a weak wave of low pressure forms over the mid-
Atlantic states and rides northeast to the Gulf of Maine by
Monday night. In contrast to the previous forecast, the 12z
model suite indicates very little instability both at the
surface and aloft to support thunder so I`ve removed all
mention. Is a rumble or tow of thunder possible, sure. Just not
enough to justify it in the forecast.

Brief break in precipitation occurs Tuesday as we`ll be in
between systems, with the next chance for showers and potential
thunderstorms coming Wednesday/Wednesday night as deepening low
pressure over Great Lakes Tuesday night tracks northeast through
the St. Lawrence Valley.

Temps through the period will be very seasonal with highs in
the mid 60s to low 70s, and lows in the mid 40s to low 50s.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Through 00Z Saturday...Primarily VFR conditions are expected
through 12Z Friday with brief periods of mvfr/ifr in heavier
convection storms...especially rutland/mpv/mss between 00-03z.
The threat for showers/storms should dissipate after 04z...with
general light rain and embedded rumbles of thunder. After 10Z,
there will be a gradual trend towards MVFR as cigs lower behind
a cold front passage. For winds, gusty to locally strong south-
southwest with gusts in the 20-35kt range persist through about
midnight before shifting to the west- northwest at 8-15kts.

Outlook...

Friday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Saturday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Saturday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Sunday: VFR. Slight Chance SHRA...TSRA.
Sunday Night: VFR. Likely SHRA...TSRA.
Monday: MVFR. Likely SHRA...TSRA.
Monday Night: VFR. Slight Chance SHRA.
Tuesday: VFR. Slight Chance SHRA.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Taber
NEAR TERM...Taber
SHORT TERM...Taber
LONG TERM...Lahiff
AVIATION...Lahiff



 
 
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