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  Wednesday December 13, 2017

 

NWS Area Forecast Discussion


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000
FXUS61 KBTV 092327
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
627 PM EST Sat Dec 9 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
The North Country will be in between systems tonight with an
upper trough to our west and coastal low pressure to our east.
Later this afternoon and tonight, snowfall associated with the
coastal low will work into eastern portions of the forecast
area, with some light accumulations expected through the night.
Late tonight into Sunday the trough to our west will bring some
scattered snow showers to the region before a more widespread
light snow event is expected Monday night into Wednesday morning
as a low pressure system moves down from Canada.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 613 PM EST Saturday...Mosaic composite reflectivity at 23Z
showing mesoscale banding with 20-30dBz returns extending from
far swrn VT newd across srn Rutland/Windsor/ern Orange counties.
Band aligns with axis of mid-level frontogenesis (700-600mb),
and associated UVV will drive best snowfall rates across the far
sern portion of our CWA thru 04-05Z before best frontogenetic forcing
shifts to the north and east. Vsby generally 1-2SM in area of
snowfall, and anticipate 2-3" snow accumulations, especially in
Windsor county VT thru 04Z or so. Further north and west,
appears progress of the band has halted, and dry low-level air
mass in the Champlain Valley will likely preclude anything more
than a few flurries in the BTV area. Northern extent of light
snowfall at 23Z extends from Newport to Morrisville to
Middlebury. A light accumulation of a coating to 2" is possible
across central VT, with forecast generally on track. Some travel
slowdowns can be expected with the light snow accumulations,
especially I-91 and I-89 corridor from MPV southeast through the
remainder of this evening and into the overnight hrs.

Previous Discussion... Forecast is playing out well going into
tonight with coastal low pressure developing southwest of the
benchmark while to our east an upper trough continues to dig
southeastward into the Ohio Valley. Deeper moisture associated
with the coastal low will work northward into eastern portions
of the forecast area later this afternoon and evening, with
light snow continuing through the pre-dawn hours before exiting
east as the low races northeast into the Gulf of St Lawrence.
Being on the western edge of the deeper moisture we`re not
expecting a lot of accumulation, mainly 1-3" east of the Greens
with the highest amounts in the immediate Connecticut River
Valley of Orange and Windsor counties. Lows will be mild,
ranging through the 20s under lots of cloud cover and light
winds.

For Sunday, coastal low pressure exits east of the region while
a digging upper trough over the Ohio Valley tonight lifts
northeastward into the New England states. A brisk westerly flow
develops by mid-day with winds in the 10-15mph range and gusts
up to 20 mph, especially across portions of northern New York.
Southwesterly flow combined with some weak elevated instability
will once again produce periods of lake effect snow showers in
the lee of Lake Ontario through the day, mainly affecting the
Adirondacks, but a modest 850mb jet of 25-35kts should be enough
to transport some activity into portions of northern Vermont,
especially in the northern mountains around Jay Peak. Through
Sunday night expect to see a solid 1-3" across southern St.
Lawrence and Franklin counties as well as western portions of
Clinton and Essex counties in New York. Could see localized
amounts of 3-5" in the vicinity of Star Lake and Wanakena.
Eastward across the northern Greens a general dusting to 2" is
expected, with localized amounts up to 4" near Jay Peak. Near
normal temps are forecast for Sunday and Sunday night with highs
in the upper 20s to mid 30s, and lows in the teens.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
As of 245 PM EST Saturday...Expect a fairly active and cold
pattern to persist through much of next week as the eastern
CONUS remains under the influence of a broad upper trough. Waves
of low pressure will rotate around the trough, keeping the
threat of snow showers in the forecast just about each day. The
steadiest snow will occur on Tuesday as a weak coastal low
develops in conjunction with the digging upper shortwave/clipper
low cross the Great Lakes. Otherwise, expect mostly scattered
snow showers through the week. Temperatures will remain cold
through the period as well, with the coldest readings coming
Wednesday through Thursday. Highs will only be in the teens
these days, while lows will be in the single digits; above zero
in the valleys and below zero in the mountains. There will be
some improvement late in the week as the mid-week wave moves
east, placing the region in southwest flow.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 245 PM EST Saturday...

&&

.AVIATION /23Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Through 18Z Sunday...A mix of flight categories is expected
through the next 24 hours as coastal low pressure brings snow to
eastern and southeastern portions of the region tonight, and
lake effect snows return to western areas tomorrow. In the
Champlain Valley between the 2 systems KBTV and KPBG will remain
largely VFR through the period. At KMPV and KRUT VFR trends to
IFR after 00Z through 06Z before improving to MVFR, then late
in the period back to VFR. KMSS and KSLK begin VFR as well, but
only trend to mainly MVFR after 09Z. Periods of IFR will be
possible at KMSS/KSLK in any heavier lake effects snow bands,
but difficult to predict at this time. For winds, mainly light
<10kts through 12Z Sunday, then picking up from the southwest at
10-15kts with some gusts around 20kts at KMSS/KSLK.

Outlook...

Sunday Night: VFR. Chance SHSN.
Monday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. NO SIG WX.
Monday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR and IFR possible.
Likely SN.
Tuesday: Mainly MVFR, with areas IFR possible. Likely SN.
Tuesday Night: Mainly MVFR, with areas IFR possible. Chance SHSN,
Likely SN.
Wednesday: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Chance SHSN.
Wednesday Night: Mainly MVFR, with local VFR possible. Chance
SHSN.
Thursday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. NO SIG WX.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Lahiff
NEAR TERM...Banacos/Lahiff
SHORT TERM...Hastings
LONG TERM...Hastings
AVIATION...Lahiff



 
 
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