FXUS61 KBTV 161850
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Burlington VT
250 PM EDT Sat Mar 16 2019
A weak front will cross the area this evening with a period of
numerous, mainly mountain snow showers. Thereafter, high
pressure generally dominates sensible weather conditions into
the middle of next week with mainly dry weather and seasonably
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 250 PM EDT Saturday...Scattered light snow showers and
flurries continue across the area this afternoon under broad
cyclonic flow aloft and westerly flow at the surface. Variably
cloudy skies persist as temperatures have trended steady or
slowly fallen over the past 6 hours under steady cold thermal
advection. The forecast headed into tonight remains largely on
track. Both global and CAM output maintain consistency in
showing a secondary surface trough passage later this evening
along with a general reblossoming of light snows/snow showers,
mainly across the Adirondacks and to a lesser extent the
northern Greens. Here, overnight minor accumulations should
range in the dusting to 2 inch range with localized totals to 3
inches or so in most persistent activity. Given the low level
flow will lie within 30 deg. of westerly the broad valleys and
southern VT counties should largely stay clear of the steadier
pcpn with just a passing light snow shower or a few flurries
expected. Low temperatures to range from 10 to 20 above with
local variability as winds abate and veer slightly northwestly
Mainly quiet and seasonably cold weather is then expected for Sunday
into Sunday night. We remain under large-scale upper troughing aloft
though broad surface ridging building east from the Great Lakes and
Ohio Valley will keep the boundary layer on the dry side. A weak and
final trough passage will occur Sunday night with little fanfare
other than a brief window of mountain flurries/light snow showers.
Coverage should be considerably less than this evening`s feature
with limited available moisture. As mentioned we`ll be on the chilly
side by mid-March standards as daily highs range from the mid 20s to
lower 30s and overnight lows bottom out in the 8 to 18 above range
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 414 AM EDT Saturday...A upper level short wave trof providing
some weak lift will move through the region from the northwest
Sunday night. There is little moisture to work with but weak some
cold advection and upslope flow may squeeze out some flurries or
light snow showers with little accumulation mainly in the mountains.
Lows by Monday morning will range from the upper single digits in
the cold spots to the teens in the valleys.
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 414 AM EDT Saturday...The long term is dominated by a mean
upper-level long wave trof in eastern north America with periodic
short wave trofs and ridges moving through it.
The weak surface and upper level short wave trof will move out on
Monday but there may be a lingering flurry or snow shower on Monday
with cold advection and partly sunny skies.
High pressure will move over the eastern CONUS Tue-Wed bringing cold
and dry weather and mostly clear to partly cloudy skies.
The next weather system comes Thu-Fri as the upper level trof
sharpens and deepens over the Northeast ahead of which will be a
slight warm up on Thursday with a chance of snow and showers and a
bit breezy conditions. EC/GFS in agreement that a cold front will
follow with any rain showers changing to snow showers with some
pretty chilly air expected on brisk northerly winds by Friday.
Temperatures start the period on the seasonably cool side with highs
in the upper 20s to lower 30s Monday and Tuesday, then moderate Wed-
Thu when highs top out from from the upper 30s to mid 40s but
cooling during Friday.
.AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Through 18Z Sunday...Mainly VFR at KMSS/KPBG/KBTV/KRUT. Mix of
VFR/MVFR/IFR at KSLK/KMPV through 06Z, then MVFR/VFR. Scattered
flurries/snow showers continue across portions of the area
through 22Z. Steadier MVFR/IFR snow showers arrive at KSLK and
to a lesser extent KMPV in the 22-06Z time frame with mainly
VCSH at other terminals as a weak wind shift pushes through.
After 06Z snow showers generally taper off. Winds westerly from
08-15 kts and gusts to 25 kts through 00Z, abating gradually
thereafter and veering slightly to west-northwesterly.
Sunday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHSN.
Monday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Monday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday Night: VFR. Chance SHSN.
Thursday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance SHRA,
As of 250 PM EDT Saturday...The Flood Watch for ice jams has
been cancelled as of mid-afternoon. Most rivers have crested and
are steadily falling as of this typing. While we can`t rule out
some isolated additional ice movement, cooling temperatures and
limited additional snowmelt have largely ended the threat