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  Thursday October 19, 2017


NWS Area Forecast Discussion

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FXUS61 KBTV 150006

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
806 PM EDT Sat Oct 14 2017

Expect some light rain showers near the Canadian border
tonight...but precipitation will lift north of the border Sunday
morning. Warm and breezy to windy conditions are expected across
the entire North Country on Sunday with high temperatures in
the 70s...which is 15 to 20 degrees above normal for this time
of year. During the late afternoon and evening hours on Sunday a
line of showers will move across the area with a thunderstorm
possible in northern New York. Wind gusts could be strong with
this line of showers...but winds will also be gusty ahead and
behind this line of showers with gusts in the 30 to 50 mph


As of 742 PM EDT Saturday...A few tweaks to the forecast for
overnight mainly to incorporate RAP/HRRR depiction of showers
with simulated reflectivity which brings high probability to
St. Lawrence county leading up to the midnight hour. The precip
then streaks up the St. Lawrence river valley, as far south at
SLK, PBG, and EFK, perhaps as far south as BTV as a weak cold
frontal boundary now past KMSS reaches that line. Little chance
of precip further south which should remain dry tonight with
partly to mostly cloudy skies. Lows will be in the 50s to around

Sunday and Sunday Night...Active period of weather is expected.
First issue will be strong winds and a wind advisory is in
effect for the Saint Lawrence Valley from 5pm Sunday to 2am
Monday and a wind advisory is in effect for most of the Northern
Adirondacks from 8pm Sunday to 2am Monday morning. Wind gusts up
to 50 mph can be expected across this area. During this time
period a line of showers...and possibly a thunderstorm... will
move across northern New York late in the day and across Vermont
Sunday night. Gusty winds will be possible with the showers...
but strong gradient winds will exist ahead and behind the line
of showers and thus the reason for the wind advisory. Further
east across the Champlain Valley and the remainder of Vermont
winds will not be as strong...but will still gust in the 30 to
40 mph range with a few gusts to 45 mph. The line of showers
will break apart overnight Sunday night and precipitation is
expected to become more terrain driven as low level flow turns
from southwest to northwest. As for high temperatures on
Sunday...looking at above normal temperatures with highs in the
70s and a few spots getting close to 80. These values will be 15
to 20 degrees above normal for this time of year.


As of 341 PM EDT Saturday...Well, as summer-like as it`s going
to feel on Sunday is equally as fall-like Monday will feel. The
aforementioned cold front will be east of the forecast area come
Monday morning, with the parent upper trough swinging through
during the day and mean 925mb temps around 0C to start the day
only warming about a degree or two C in the afternoon. Combine
this with a stiff northwest wind at 10-15mph with gusts up to
30mph, and yeah, it`s going to be brisk to say the least with
highs only in the 40s to perhaps 50 in the deeper valleys. In
addition, though subsidence will be building in aloft as high
pressure begins to build in, latest hi-res guidance indicates
abundant low level moisture trapped below a weak mid-level
inversion. This, combined with northwest upslope flow will keep
skies mostly cloudy across much of the region through most of
the day, with some clearing in the downslope regions towards
sunset. Also can`t rule out some patchy drizzle in these same
upslope regions, with possibly some freezing drizzle and/or
riming across the high peaks.

For Monday night, skies continue to slowly clear through the night
as surface high pressure builds into the region and subsidence
aloft finally erodes the low level moisture. With such a cold
airmass aloft, clearing skies and abating winds will lead to the
coldest night yet of this young 2017 fall season, with lows
areawide in the upper 20s to low 30s. Frost/freeze headlines
will most certainly be in our future where the program
continues, which will just be the Champlain Valley.


As of 341 PM EDT Saturday...Not much to say about the long term
forecast as the North Country will be dominated by high
pressure the entire week. An upper low ejecting out of the lee
of the Rockies will attempt to break into the ridge aloft
Wednesday, but with strong subsidence in place feel that only an
increase in cloud cover and perhaps some virga will be
realized. Otherwise, a good deal of sunshine is expected every
day with temps gradually warming from the low/mid 50s on
Tuesday, to mid/upper 60s by Saturday. Lows most nights will
range through the 40s.


Through 00Z Monday...Mainly MVFR/VFR ceilings for much of the
period. Best chance for any precipitation and MVFR vsby will be
tonight at KMSS and KSLK northward as a weak cold front now
near MSS returns north as a warm front. Outside chance of -SHRA
at KPBG/KBTV otherwise looking at VFR over the remainder of the
area. The precipitation will lift north of the border after 12z
and most areas will experience VFR conditions as region will be
in the warm sector. After 14z watch for gusty south to
southwest winds developing...generally in the 15 to 25 knot
range perhaps reaching G40KT at KMSS in the afternoon. May be a
bit higher winds at KBTV than currently forecast so stay tuned.
A cold front sweeps in from the west reaching KMSS near the end
of the forecast period with a brief heavy shower. Front will
sweep across the rest of the TAF sites with gusty winds through
06z...which is beyond this forecast period.


Sunday Night: VFR with lcl MFVR cigs. Strong winds with westerly gusts
35 to 40 kts possible esp at MSS. Chance SHRA.
Monday: VFR. Breezy. Slight Chance DZ.
Monday Night: VFR. Areas FROST.
Tuesday: VFR. Breezy. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday Night: VFR. Slight Chance SHRA.
Wednesday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Thursday: VFR. NO SIG WX.


NY...Wind Advisory from 5 PM Sunday to 2 AM EDT Monday for NYZ026-
     Wind Advisory from 8 PM Sunday to 2 AM EDT Monday for


NEAR TERM...Sisson
LONG TERM...Lahiff

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