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  Monday October 14, 2019

 

NWS Area Forecast Discussion


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425
FXUS61 KBTV 122003
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
403 PM EDT Sat Oct 12 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
Seasonal temperatures and mainly quiet weather continues into
early next week despite the passage of two weak cold fronts. A
more significant front and associated rainfall arrive by next
Wednesday. Behind this front cooler air arrives for the end of
the work week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 334 PM EDT Saturday...A persistence forecast will be
offered over the next 42 hours. Weakening occlusion and narrow
band of light showers continues to press slowly eastward into
the SLV/central NY early this afternoon and this feature will
swing through this evening with little fanfare other than a
period of cloudiness. Near-term/hi-res models remain consistent
showing dynamical forcing will continue to weaken along the
boundary through early evening as it presses into Vermont. Thus
any lingering coverage of showers should be quite scant with
most areas remaining largely dry into the overnight hours. Low
temperatures close to bias-corrected MOS output in the upper 30s
to mid 40s.

Surface high pressure then builds across the area on Sunday, then
slides offshore by Sunday night. As such, mainly sunny skies will be
maintained during the daylight hours, giving way to partly cloudy
conditions overnight as synoptic scale southerly flow gradually
increases ahead of the next weak trough boundary across the eastern
Great Lakes. Temperatures to continue run about 2-5 degrees above
mid-October climo values with highs from the upper 50s to mid 60s
and lows in the upper 30s to mid 40s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
As of 402 PM EDT Saturday...A weak cold front will pass through
Monday afternoon bringing a chance of rain showers across western
Saint Lawrence County and higher elevations of New York and northern
Vermont. Highs will stay in the mid 50s across New York, while
reaching low 60s in Vermont. On Tuesday, surface high pressure will
move in, keeping temperatures relatively cool and winds light.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 402 PM EDT Saturday...Wednesday will be wet and windy with the
approach of an occluded surface low to the north, with 10-15 knot
winds ahead of the front. Rain showers are expected to begin during
the afternoon, the heaviest of which will be through the evening and
into the overnight hours. Following the passage of the surface low
and associated front, cold air advection will bring relatively
cooler temperature across the North Country, with highs in the upper
40s and low 50s for Thursday and Friday. A slight chance of snow is
possible across higher elevations overnight Thursday into Friday
morning as moisture wraps around the backside of the surface low.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Through 18Z Sunday...Weak frontal boundary to push through the
area this evening with little fanfare other than a few showers,
mainly KMSS and KSLK in the 18-22Z time frame. Mainly dry at
Vermont terminals. Cigs BKN/OVC and generally VFR, through a
period of MVFR likely at KMSS/KSLK from 21-03Z or so and
possibly at KMPV later tonight from 04-09Z behind the front.
Winds variable and mainly less than 10 kts through the forecast
period.

Outlook...

Sunday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Columbus Day: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
Monday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
Wednesday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Definite RA.
Wednesday Night: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. Chance RA, Chance
SHRA.
Thursday: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Chance SHRA.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMG
NEAR TERM...JMG
SHORT TERM...NJH
LONG TERM...NJH
AVIATION...JMG



 
 
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