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  Monday May 27, 2019

 

NWS Area Forecast Discussion


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000
FXUS61 KBTV 250724
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Burlington VT
324 AM EDT Sat May 25 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
Today will start of dry with just some high clouds moving in,
but rain showers will develop later this afternoon into this
evening as a warm front pushes through. Showers will be heaviest
in the early overnight hours tonight, when a rumble of thunder
can`t be ruled out as a trough moves through. The line of
showers will clear the area by Sunday morning, but some
scattered showers with a slight chance of thunderstorms will
redevelop Sunday afternoon. Sunday night through Monday night
will be drier as high pressure builds over the area.
Temperatures today and Sunday will be in the 70s, then Monday
and Tuesday will cool down a bit with highs expected in the 60s.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 321 AM EDT Saturday...Some thin, high clouds are just making
their way into the region this morning from the west, streaming
up and over a strong ridge over the southeastern US. Further
west, rains showers are spreading over Michigan along and ahead
of a warm front currently analyzed over Wisconsin/Lake Michigan.
This warm front will move eastward today, making it to the BTV
forecast area by this afternoon. Increasing isentropic ascent in
tandem with a decent influx of moisture will result in showers
spreading over the forecast area today from west to east. These
showers will start over northern New York between 11 AM and 3
PM, and start over Vermont between 3 PM and 7 PM local time.
Showers will initially be fairly light and spotty in nature due
to lack of deep moisture and deep ascent. However, by this
afternoon in northern NY and by this evening in VT, showers will
trend heavier as a moisture plume surges into the area. Highs
today will be near seasonal values, with temperatures expected
to top out in the upper 60s to low 70s.

Precipitation will continue into the early overnight hours tonight,
becoming a more organized line of convective showers between 10
PM and 4 AM as a trough pushes through. Continuing to note the
presence of some elevated instability tonight as the showers
move through, so will keep a mention of some thunder in the
forecast this evening through around midnight. Once the trough
passes through, the mid and upper-levels will quickly dry out,
leading to diminishing precipitation through the pre-dawn hours
of Sunday. Overnight lows will be in the mid to upper 50s.

There may be some residual spotty showers lingering into Sunday
morning, but by-and-large the area should be dry by daybreak.
The air will feel a little muggy as we remain within the warm
sector of a Canadian low pressure system. Initial low clouds
will lift through the morning, allowing for some breaks of sun
to develop and temperatures to rise into the mid to upper 70s by
early Sunday afternoon. A shortwave aloft with a surface front
will move through the area late morning through early afternoon,
which may trigger the development of some isolated to scattered
convective showers. An isolated thunderstorm or two can`t be
ruled out, but thinking progged instability may be a little
overdone given the expected cloud cover Sunday morning. Forecast
soundings also indicate a very dry layer above 750mb, so any
showers would be light and any thunderstorms would be low-topped
and non-severe. Highs Sunday will be in the mid to upper 70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 250 PM EDT Friday...Front clears through the area during
the morning to early afternoon hours on Sunday with little
fanfare. Maintained very low end pops (20-30%) for showers or an
isolated storm through the morning hours to account for any
scattered activity but forcing is rather weak along the wind
shift so most of the day should turn out dry with highs
seasonably mild in the 70s to locally near 80. Then trending
mainly clear Sunday night under building high pressure with lows
in the 40s to lower 50s.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 250 PM EDT Friday...H5 ridge then crests atop the region
on Monday with sunny skies and mild temperatures in the 60s.
This will be the best day of the workweek for outdoor
activities.

Thereafter the general wx trends unsettled as the forecast area will
reside on the northern edge of deep layer southeastern CONUS
ridging. Periodic shortwave wave passages embedded in fast west to
southwesterly flow aloft should ensure near daily chances of showers
and occasional storms, though inherent timing uncertainties in day 4-
7 forecasts leads me to keep pop values reasonable side (40-60%) at
this point. Best threat of storms looks, at least at this point to
occur on Wednesday into Thursday when the combination of heating and
moisture looks the greatest. Temperatures in general to average
within 5 degrees of late May seasonal norms.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Through 06Z Sunday...High pressure overhead is allowing for the
development of some patchy BR/FG, locally reducing visibilities
to IFR/LIFR conditions. Most TAF sites will see variable
visibilities between 2SM and 6SM through 10Z, but KMSS and KSLK
will see 1/4 SM to 2SM BR/FG prevailing through 10Z. After 10Z,
expecting all TAF sites to quickly trend VFR as fog mixes out. A
warm front will work through the region today, spreading showers
over northern NY starting between 18Z and 20Z, and over VT
starting between 19Z and 22Z. These showers will be accompanied
by deteriorating ceilings through the end of the TAF period and
localized MVFR visibilities within heavier showers. Winds will
be calm overnight, becoming southerly 6-12 kts after 18Z.

Outlook...

Sunday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight chance SHRA,
Slight chance TSRA.
Sunday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Memorial Day: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Monday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
Tuesday: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. Likely SHRA.
Tuesday Night: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Chance SHRA,
Slight chance TSRA.
Wednesday: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Chance SHRA,
Chance TSRA.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RSD
NEAR TERM...RSD
SHORT TERM...JMG
LONG TERM...JMG
AVIATION...RSD


 
 
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