FXUS61 KBTV 250557
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
157 AM EDT Sun Jun 25 2017
Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop
later this morning and afternoon across the North Country. Gusty
winds and small hail will be possible with any of the thunderstorms.
The showers and storms will taper off tonight...but the potential
for additional showers or storms will develop once again Monday
afternoon. High temperatures will be right around seasonal
normals today and a few degrees below normal on Monday.
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 157 AM EDT Sunday...Convection has come to an end early
this morning and dry weather is expected through mid-morning.
Deep layer shear has developed over the area and will persist
through tonight. Instability is expected to develop as
temperatures warm into the 70s and temperatures aloft cool a
couple of degrees. This will create nearly dry adiabatic lapse
rates in the 850-500 millibar layer...thus creating sufficient
instability. Meanwhile dynamic support will be increasing over
the area as a pronounced shortwave trough moves out of the
eastern Great Lakes and into our area tonight. This will all be
sufficient to create scattered showers and thunderstorms later
this morning and afternoon across the area. Forecast soundings
show low wet bulb zero values and drier air in the sub cloud
layer. As a result...the potential for gusty winds and small
hail will exist and will include in the forecast.
For tonight...convection will decrease in areal coverage toward
midnight as we lose instability and dynamic forcing shifts north
and east of the area. Should be relatively dry during the
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY/...
As of 157 AM EDT Sunday...Deep layer shear remains over the
area on Monday and instability should develop during the
afternoon hours. Temperatures will be a few degrees cooler than
Sunday...thus instability will not be as favorable as Sunday.
And there will be less of a forcing mechanism on Monday...thus
looking at only a chance for showers or storms during the
afternoon hours. Activity should not get organized enough to
become strong...so no enhanced wording at this time.
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 239 PM EDT Saturday...Unsettled extended forecast
continues. An upper level trough will dominate through mid week
before the flow becomes more zonal. Despite flattening flow, the
net change on the sensible weather will be minimal though as
shortwaves will still be moving through the the zonal flow. In
addition, nearly stationary boundary will be present near the
area with increasing instability toward the end of the week.
Good chances for thunderstorms on Thursday, and again toward the
end of the week.
Below normal temperatures are expected through most of the extended,
with a warming trend from mid week and later.
.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Through 06Z Monday...Overall looking at VFR conditions through
the period. There may be some low clouds and fog developing at
KSLK between 08z and 12z...which would result in MVFR/IFR
conditions. Otherwise main item of note will be potential for
showers and thunderstorms between 16z and 01z. Some of the
storms could produce gusty winds and small hail during this time
period. The threat for showers and storms will end after 01z.
Winds will generally be from the south and southwest through the
period...but speeds will generally be 10 knots or loss.
Sunday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA...Slight Chance TSRA.
Monday: VFR. Chance SHRA...Slight Chance TSRA.
Monday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA.
Tuesday: VFR. Chance SHRA.
Tuesday Night: VFR. Slight Chance SHRA.
Wednesday: VFR. Chance SHRA.
Wednesday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA...Chance TSRA.
Thursday: VFR. Chance SHRA...Chance TSRA.