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  Wednesday April 24, 2019

 

NWS Area Forecast Discussion


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204
FXUS61 KBTV 221103
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Burlington VT
703 AM EDT Mon Apr 22 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
Another day of above normal temperatures with a mix of clouds
and sun is on tap for today. A relatively weak coastal low
passing through to our east will bring some evening/overnight
showers to portions of southern and eastern Vermont, but
otherwise will have little impact on North Country weather.
Behind the departing low, brief ridging building in will supply
another mainly dry day Tuesday. Tuesday evening through Tuesday
night, a cold front will move through the area from west to
east, bringing some overnight showers and a transition to cooler
temperatures for the second half of the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 657 AM EDT Monday...Forecast in good shape with only minor
tweaks needed in this morning update. Overnight temperatures
stayed a couple degrees warmer than initially anticipated due to
the persistent cloud cover, so have updated forecast to better
reflect the trends. Otherwise, low clouds over northern New York
still on track to burn off over the next few hours..leading to
at least some partial sunshine to start the work week.

Satellite imagery shows moisture streaming north/northwestward
towards New England ahead of a sprawling upper low centered off
the North Carolina/Virginia Coast. This moisture is manifesting
itself as some mid and high-level clouds, mainly over Vermont
and areas south and east. Further west meanwhile, weak
subsidence over northern New York is trapping some low level
moisture near the surface, resulting in lower clouds over the
Saint Lawrence Valley, northern Adirondacks, and into the
northern Champlain Valley. As the day progresses today, the
upper low will move northward, with a relatively weak surface
coastal low developing off the Mid Atlantic Coast at the same
time. Most of the low clouds over northern New York will burn
off shortly after sunrise, but areas of Vermont will see
continued cloud cover as the coastal low directs moisture
inland. Shortwave ridging will build in from the west, keeping
northern New York dry for the day, while the coastal low will
progress towards Cape Cod and impact eastern portions of the
forecast area. This evening through tonight, a deformation band
within the northwest quadrant of the coastal low will pivot into
western New England, leading to increasing chances for some
rain in southeastern Vermont. There will be a fairly tight
gradient between the rainfall associated with the cyclone to our
south and east, and between drier air to the west under the
shortwave ridge.

By sunrise Tuesday morning, the area will be mainly dry as the low
pulls away to the northeast. Weak ridging will build in from
the west, keeping the area mainly dry during the day Tuesday.
However, precipitation chances increase late Tuesday afternoon
into Tuesday evening as a cold front approaches from the west.

Temperatures in the near term will continue to be slightly above
average as both the coastal low and an approaching low from the
west transport relatively warm air northward throughout the
eastern US. Highs today and Tuesday will be in the 60s, lows
tonight will be in the 40s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 354 AM EDT Monday...Fast mid/upper level flow aloft will
quickly push next system into our cwa on Tue Night into Weds.
Overall, guidance in good agreement with precip arriving btwn
00-06z northern NY and spreading into VT by aft 06z Weds. Have
increased pops into the cat range as deep layer moisture is good
and dynamics associated with 5h vort are favorable. The quickly
movement of system and limited advection of deep Gulf of Mexico
moisture will keep qpf in the 0.25 to 0.50 range. Not expecting
any hydro related issues. Precip should end as some trrn focused
rain and high elevation snow showers late Weds into Weds night.
A light snow accumulation is possible for the summits by Thurs
morning, as progged 850mb temps drop below 0C. Lows generally in
the 40s for Tues Night and warm into the 50s for Weds, before
cooler air arrives on breezy northwest winds for Weds Night into
Thurs.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 354 AM EDT Monday...Fast westerly flow aloft will prevail
most of the weekend into the upcoming weekend. This will produce
fast moving system every couple of days, along with near to
slightly below normal temps for the latter part of April. Timing
of best lift/moisture in zonal flow becomes increasing more
difficult in days 5 thru 7, but lack of significant pattern
amplification will limit impacts. Next system with widespread
rainfall looks to arrive Friday with mid/upper lvl trof and
associated weak sfc low pres. Initially qpf looks to range btwn
0.25 and 0.75 with this system, before dry slot develops by
Saturday. Some lingering trrn driven showers are possible next
weekend, but overall qpf will be light and limited in areal
coverage. Temps mainly in the mid/upper 40s elevation to
mid/upper 50s valleys, with lows generally in the 30s to lower
40s, except cooling back into the 20s and 30s by next weekend.
Guidance shows some cooler progged 850 to 925mb thermal profiles
for a short period of time behind departing sfc low pres on Sat
into Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Through 06Z Tuesday...Mix of LIFR through VFR conditions will
prevail between 06Z and 12Z, however after 12Z expect widespread
VFR conditions for the remainder of the day. Slow-moving area of
low clouds (generally with bases 900 to 3000 ft) continues to
bring MVFR/localized IFR conditions to KMSS/KSLK. These low
clouds will shift slightly southeastward through the night, with
improvement to VFR expected by 07Z at KMSS. KBTV and KPBG may
see some temporary MVFR ceilings through 10Z, as they are on the
periphery of the low clouds to the west. However, the primary
impacts of the low clouds will be felt over KSLK, which will
stay IFR/MVFR until 12Z. KRUT and KMPV will see some short lived
fog with occasional IFR/MVFR visibilities through 09Z, but
after 09Z improvement to VFR is expected. Winds throughout will
be light and variable through 12Z, then trend northerly under 10
kts for the remainder of the day.


Outlook...

Tuesday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
Tuesday Night: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. Likely SHRA.
Wednesday: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. Chance SHRA.
Wednesday Night: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Slight
chance SHRA.
Thursday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. NO SIG WX.
Thursday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA.
Friday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Likely SHRA.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RSD
NEAR TERM...RSD
SHORT TERM...Taber
LONG TERM...Taber
AVIATION...RSD



 
 
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