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  Monday September 16, 2019

 

NWS Area Forecast Discussion


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FXUS61 KBTV 111941
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
341 PM EDT Wed Sep 11 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front moving through the forecast area this evening will
briefly stall over southern New England late tonight into
Thursday morning allowing a convective complex over the Great
Lakes to bring showers to central and southern portions of the
forecast area late tonight through mid-day Thursday. Thereafter,
high pressure will provide clear and cool conditions for
Thursday through Friday. Showers return for Friday night into
Saturday, with the weekend ending dry for Sunday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
As of 328 PM EDT Wednesday...Surface cold front continues to
approach the forecast area this afternoon, currently working
through the Ottawa Valley and progged to shift into central
portions of the CWA this evening. A few lines of
isolated/scattered showers have developed ahead of the boundary,
and expect with the loss of diurnal heating after sunset, this
activity should wane. As the front progresses southeastward
tonight it stalls/slows over central/southern areas allowing a
decaying convective complex currently over the Great Lakes to
ride along the boundary from west to east. While a few rumbles
of thunder are possible, expect precipitation to be mainly
showers, arriving around sunrise across the central/southern
Adirondacks and shift eastward through central/southern Vermont
through the morning hours before the front picks up steam again
and shifts south of the forecast area by the evening rush hour.
North of line from Saranac Lake to Montpelier conditions should
remain dry and trend sunnier than our southern counterparts with
highs north in the mid/upper 60s behind the front, and low/mid
60s south.

Behind the front for Thursday night, skies rapidly clear out
from north to south as high pressure builds in. Clearing skies
and abating winds will setup favorable conditions for fog
development along with the potential for some isolated frost as
temperatures fall into the 40s area-wide, and locally 30s in the
hollows of the Adirondacks and Northeast Kingdom.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
As of 329 PM EDT Wednesday...Friday will remain quiet and dry
with ridge of surface high pressure remaining over the region.
High begins to slide eastward overnight making way for next
approaching frontal system as a low pressure system lifts well
north of the region. Warm front lifts across the area Friday
night and showers will begin to move into our area from the
west after 1am. Winds will become a big gusty out of the south
southwest ahead of approaching cold front. High temperatures on
Friday will reach the upper 60s to lower 70s, very near to
seasonal normals. Then mild temperatures are anticipated
overnight with clouds and precipitation moving into the area,
generally lower 40s to mid 50s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 329 PM EDT Wednesday...Showers will continue ahead of
approaching cold front Saturday morning, still not seeing much
instability so haven`t mentioned thunder at this time. The cold
front will exit to the south and east later Saturday, bringing
precipitation to an end. High pressure and drier weather build
in for Saturday night. Uncertainty grows thereafter as models
are showing little agreement on placement/timing/amplitude of an
upper trough and associated features that will affect the
region through early next week. Have stayed close to a model
blend, which gave slight chance/low chance PoPs and near normal
temperatures from Sunday onward.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Through 18Z Thursday...Generally VFR conditions across the area
this afternoon with some isolated MVFR across the Adirondacks. A
cold front may spark a few isolated showers this evening, before
clouds increase and showers move in across central/southern
areas as the front briefly stalls Thursday morning. After sunset
conditions will trend towards a mix of VFR/MVFR through sunrise
Thursday, with clearing developing from north to south during
the mid-morning to afternoon hours. Variable winds at 5-10kts
this afternoon trend north/northwest after 00Z.


Outlook...

Thursday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Friday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
Friday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA.
Saturday: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. Chance SHRA.
Saturday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight
chance SHRA.
Sunday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
Sunday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA.
Monday: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Slight chance SHRA.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Lahiff
NEAR TERM...Lahiff
SHORT TERM...Neiles
LONG TERM...Neiles
AVIATION...Lahiff


 
 
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