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  Saturday September 23, 2017

 

NWS Area Forecast Discussion


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FXUS61 KBTV 180732
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
332 AM EDT Mon Sep 18 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will hold across northern New England and northern
New York today and tonight. Will see light south winds with
afternoon valley high temperatures reaching the upper 70s to
lower 80s. As Hurricane Jose moves into the waters south of New
England, will see an increase in clouds during the day Tuesday,
with chances for rain showers Tuesday night into Wednesday
across central and southern Vermont. High pressure will
reestablish across the Great Lakes into the northeast Thursday
and through the upcoming weekend. This will bring an extended
period of dry weather and temperatures continuing well above
seasonal averages for the later half of September.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 308 AM EDT Monday...Narrow zone of high pressure will
remain in control today and tonight, despite ongoing squeeze
play as Hurricane Jose moves nwd off the coast of the Carolinas,
and as frontal system across the Great Lakes shears out to our
north and west. Dealing with some patchy dense fog this morning,
with 10.3-3.9um fog product highlighting the typically favored
valleys east of the Green Mtns and within the nrn Adirondacks.
Fog will begin dissipating after sunrise, but will hold on until
13-14Z across portions of the Winooski and CT river valleys.

It will be another warm and moderately humid day. Will see
afternoon highs generally 80-84F with dewpoints holding in the
60-65F range. Winds will generally be light S-SE 4-8mph.

Tonight will see some high clouds from nrn fringe of Jose
reaching s-central/central VT. Will also need to monitor low
marine stratus, which will likely push into central/ern sections
of VT (east of the Green Mtns) as se flow increases from the
coastal plain. Elsewhere, some patchy valley fog is again
possible overnight. Lows tonight generally in the upr 50s to
lower 60s, or generally 10-12deg above the 30-yr climo average.

We`ll continue to track Jose on Tuesday (please refer to NHC for
latest forecast guidance). Its expected northward motion will
bring a low chance (30%) of showers to Rutland/Windsor/Orange
counties on far nwrn fringe of cyclonic circulation in 700-500mb
layer. Skies should be mostly cloudy across s-central and ern
VT (with marine stratus still likely in place), and partly
cloudy elsewhere. This will impact temps as well, with highs a
bit cooler across s-central VT zones. Looking for highs in the
lower 70s across ern VT, and upper 70s in the Champlain Valley,
and lower 80s across the St. Lawrence Valley.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 340 PM EDT Sunday...Please refer to the National
Hurricane Center for latest track and guidance on Hurricane
Jose.

Largely referring to previous discussion with some tweaks...It still
appears some fringe effects of Jose are possible, mainly in the form
of rain showers reaching nwd into s-central VT during late Tuesday
through possibly Wednesday midday.

Latest trends bring Jose near or just inside the 40N/70W benchmark
then the brakes get put on due to building ridge to our west with
Jose drifting ENE then the longer range models show more looping
with Jose which I won`t try to wrap my head around.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 340 PM EDT Sunday...Jose should have diminishing
potential influence during this period as the main weather
driver is the large Upper ridge that will be in control through
next weekend.

As I mentioned just earlier, most of the models want to loop Jose
ESE from New England and as it loops south-southeast this just
allows the Upper Ridge to build in more.

Unseasonably mild and dry weather for late week and weekend with
highs starting in the mid-upper 70s to lower 80s by weekend with
lows in 40s/50s moderating into the 50s.

Beyond this period...busy with a looping Jose or remnants of Jose
and watching the tropics to see if Maria impacts the US at some
later point.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Through 12Z Tuesday...Areas of LIFR/VLIFR fog will be the
primary concern early this morning. Looking for 1/4SM and OVC001
at SLK/MPV thru 13Z or so before daytime heating/mixing
dissipates the fog. Elsewhere, fog will be more intermittent in
nature at MSS/PBG. Little, if any, fog is expected at RUT/BTV
with light gradient flow from the south generally unfavorable
for fog development at those locations.

The daylight hours will features SKC-SCT040 conditions with weak
ridging still in place across nrn New England. Could see an
isold -SHRA over the higher terrain with 20% chance of pcpn.
Any isold -SHRA not expected to impact TAF locations.

We`ll need to monitor evolution of marine stratus across ern New
England as we head into tonight. As Jose moves northward off the
mid-atlantic coast, it will induce 5-10kt sely flow in the
1-2kft layer across especially ern VT. This may allow for some
500-1500ft ceilings to get into the CT River Valley and perhaps
into MPV tonight. Will see potential for patchy fog again
tonight, mainly at SLK, and possibly at MPV if marine stratus
layer holds to the south and east. Winds will generally be
light S-SE during the period.

Outlook...

Tuesday: VFR. Slight Chance SHRA...Patchy FG.
Tuesday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA.
Wednesday: VFR. Slight Chance SHRA.
Wednesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Thursday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Thursday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Friday: VFR. NO SIG WX.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Banacos
NEAR TERM...Banacos
SHORT TERM...SLW
LONG TERM...SLW
AVIATION...Banacos



 
 
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