204
FXUS61 KBTV 100741 CCA
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
244 AM EDT Wed Sep 10 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Persistent dry conditions, characterized by pleasant afternoon
temperatures and morning fog for river valleys, continue with high
pressure in place through mid week. A dry cold front will move
through Thursday bringing northerly breezes and possibly enhancing
fire weather concerns given dry vegetation associated with ongoing
drought. The next chances of widespread rain will hold off until
late weekend into the beginning of next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 242 AM EDT Wednesday...High pressure continues to
dominate the weather pattern across much of the Northeast
keeping conditions dry and leading to areas of worsening drought
over portions of northern New York and Vermont. While the
region could use rainfall, temperatures will remain quite
pleasant with afternoon high in the 70s and lows ranging from
the mid/upper 30s in coldest hollows, 40s for most locations,
and low/mid 50s for the Lake Champlain isles. Primary weather
concern will be related to fire weather for Thursday as a dry
cold front sweeps through the region bringing some northerly
breezes; gusts 15 to 25 mph. While dew points will remain
elevated, fuels remain susceptible to ignition and breezes could
promote an increase in fire spread rates should something
ignite.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 242 AM EDT Wednesday...Breezes die down Thursday night
with clear skies continuing to be likely. Radiational cooling
will be efficient and we could see another period of frost for
portions of the Adirondacks and northeastern Vermont where low
temperatures will dip into the 30s. Elsewhere, lows will mainly
be in the 40s aside outside of Lake Champlain`s immediate
influence where low will dip to around 50 degrees. Highs for
Friday will likewise be cooler, only climbing into the 60s to
around 70 degrees for most spots.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 242 AM EDT Wednesday...No significant weather is expected
in the period with lack of anomalous wind/temperature/moisture
parameters noted in Ensemble Situational Awareness Table data.
That being said, this weekend chance for widespread rain showers
return as a welcome break from an otherwise extended dry
stretch. Shortwave troughs from the north or northwest will
likely be forced into the region due to a large upper level
ridge building over the central part of North America. One upper
level system with low predictability may spark showers as early
as Saturday if it emerges from a closed low over the western
US; right now, most model guidance does not show this feature
and hence dry weather is favored. A stronger/more predictable
upper level low remains the expected player for our region
beginning Saturday night and probably ending by Sunday night. It
will bring a large area of clouds and showers, which is
becoming more likely to traverse New York and Vermont from north
to south during the period. While there still is plenty of
model spread, enough deterministic and probabilistic data is
showing this idea to think we`ll probably have at least some
rain on Sunday in at least a portion of the region. While chance
of rain on Sunday are a bit higher in northern/western areas,
where 12 hour PoP is currently 30 to 40% in much of northern New
York from the High Peaks north and west and far northwestern
Vermont, think if the upper level low tracks through the region
PoPs will be fairly similar areawide. If that scenario occurs,
average precipitation amounts look to be roughly 0.25", with
reasonable high end amounts of 0.75". Other scenarios, such as
the low pressure area only glancing the area as it passes to the
east, would result in under a 50% chance of 0.1" of rainfall
anywhere in the region.

Aside from showers possibly lingering into early next week if the
upper level low gets cutoff over the region, the remainder of the
forecast period looks dry as ridging will probably reassert itself
both at the surface and in the upper levels. The combination of
height rises and light low level northerly flow would lead to more
sunny days and seasonably warm conditions with only patchy frost
concerns, at most, with temperatures generally staying above
freezing even at the coldest spots. Following a few days of near
normal temperatures Saturday through Monday, temperatures should
trend higher, from a bit above normal to perhaps well above normal
by Wednesday, when highs could approach 80 in the warmest valley
locations.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
While skies are clear across the airspace aside from a few high
clouds over MSS, dense valley fog will likely develop in the same
areas as last night. Comparing current satellite imagery to 24 hours
ago, lack of fog at this time is likely associated with a little bit
of south wind currently observed over mountain summits and Lake
Champlain of 10 to 20 knots. As such, have delayed forecast onset of
fog at SLK and MPV compared to what occurred last night by 1 to 2
hours. Conditional on fog formation, cessation of fog/LIFR
conditions will be similar to yesterday, about 1130Z at SLK and
1330Z at MPV Satellite imagery does show fog is in the vicinity of
SLK and MPV already. Only some south wind will mix to the surface,
mainly at BTV after 12Z where 5 to 8 knots is expected before winds
become light and variable during the afternoon. Elsewhere, calm or
terrain-driven light winds will largely persist through the period.

Outlook...

Thursday: VFR. Patchy BR.
Thursday Night: VFR. Patchy BR.
Friday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Friday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Saturday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Saturday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance
SHRA.
Sunday: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Chance SHRA.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Boyd
NEAR TERM...Boyd
SHORT TERM...Boyd
LONG TERM...Kutikoff
AVIATION...Kutikoff