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  Monday August 20, 2018

 

NWS Area Forecast Discussion


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000
FXUS61 KBTV 181851
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
251 PM EDT Sat Aug 18 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will build into the region tonight through early
next week with fair and dry weather expected. The next chance of
rainfall occurs toward the middle of next week as a frontal
system crosses the area. Temperatures will average near to
slightly above normal through the period.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 251 PM EDT Saturday...After a mainly cloudy and
seasonably cool day, skies should trend partly cloudy to mostly
clear in most areas tonight as surface high pressure builds east
from the Great Lakes/southern Ontario. Some clouds may linger
far south through about midnight as yesterday`s cold front
continues to pull southward through the southern portions of NY
and New England. Outside a stray light shower or sprinkle in
these far southern counties through early evening, dry weather
is expected. Patchy fog will also be a good bet, especially
across central and northern counties where clearing will occur
sooner. Leaned close to most recent NAM 3km output in this
regard, which typically handles lower boundary layer moisture
profiles the best among CAMs under these conditions. Low
temperatures a blend of bias- corrected MOS output showing
readings bottoming out mainly in the 50s, though locally around
60 in mildest spots of the Champlain/Lower CT River Valleys.

By tomorrow into tomorrow night fair and dry weather continues as
the aforementioned surface high bridges atop the region. The only
subtlety will be a developing kink/gyre in the mid level flow across
southern New England during this period which may act to through a
few clouds back into our eastern counties through the
daylight/evening hours. Dry air in the lower levels associated with
the surface high should prevail north and west with mostly
sunny/clear conditions expected. High temperatures should range from
the upper 70s to lower 80s in most spots which is supported nicely
by model blended 925 mb thermal progs. Lows Sunday night to be quite
similar to tonight with some slight variability as is cutomary under
light wind/mainly clear sky regimes.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 329 AM EDT Saturday...Dry weather is expected through the
period as weak upper ridging builds into the region and keeps a
weak upper trough from moving up into our area. Based on
thermal fields at 925/850 mb looking at high temperatures on
Monday generally in the upper 70s to lower 80s. Lows Sunday
night will be in the lower 50s to lower 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 329 AM EDT Saturday...We will see a gradual pattern
change take place Monday night into Tuesday as upper trough
takes shape over the Upper Midwest and the flow aloft downstream
over our area becomes more southwest with time. Precipitation
will become more widespread over time ahead of the upper
trough...but the bulk of it will not move across our area until
Tuesday night through the first part of Wednesday. Kept the
forecast dry Monday night and for most of Tuesday with chances
increasing into the 60-80 percent range everywhere Tuesday
night. Instability is limited and any thunder threat will be due
to dynamic contributions...and thus have only mentioned a
chance of thunder Tuesday night as dynamics are not that strong.
If there is any concern it would be for heavy rain and we will
have to watch for this potential. Precipitation ends from west
to east during the day on Wednesday with trough moving across
the area...but another upper trough will start to take shape
over the Ohio Valley on Thursday and keep us in southwest flow
aloft. Not much moisture is anticipated with this system and
have kept the forecast on Thursday and Friday dry for now. Above
normal temperatures are expected on Tuesday ahead of the upper
trough with at or slightly below seasonal normals for high
temperatures on Wednesday and Thursday. We should return to
seasonal normals on Friday.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Through 18Z Sunday...A mix of BKN/OVC MVFR/VFR cigs under light
northerly winds from 5-10 kts through 00Z. After 00Z cigs trend
scattered and mainly VFR with the exception of patchy LIFR fog
from 04-13Z at favored terminals of KMPV and KSLK. Winds light
and variable. Modest confidence of some brief IFR BR/FG also
exists at other terminals in the 08-12Z time frame, especially
KBTV though have remained more optimistic at this point given
less favored climatology at these terminals. After 12Z all sites
trend VFR with scattered cumulus bases developing in the
035-045 AGL range by early afternoon. Winds light north to
northeasterly, mainly in the 5-10 kt range.

Outlook...

Sunday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Monday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Monday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
Tuesday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Likely SHRA,
Chance TSRA.
Wednesday: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Likely SHRA.
Wednesday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Slight
chance SHRA.
Thursday: VFR. NO SIG WX.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMG
NEAR TERM...JMG
SHORT TERM...Evenson
LONG TERM...Evenson
AVIATION...JMG


 
 
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