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  Tuesday May 23, 2017

 

NWS Area Forecast Discussion


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000
FXUS61 KBTV 181955
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
355 PM EDT Thu May 18 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
After another day of record heat, isolated strong to severe
thunderstorms are expected through this evening...with the primary
threat being gusty winds and hail. Much cooler and drier weather
arrives by midday Friday with some patchy frost possible by Saturday
morning. A warm front will produce scattered showers on Sunday
afternoon with temperatures returning to near normal.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
As of 350 PM EDT Thursday... Severe thunderstorm watch number
237 in effect for entire cwa until 03z this evening. Vis sat
shows vertical cumulus development occurring across the western
dacks with radar just showing the first signs of convective
development near Tupper Lake. Expect coverage to increase this
aftn/evening as better dynamics arrive and the cap lifts.

Wind advisory continues until 03z with kmss gusting to 44 mph
last hour.

Forecast concern this evening will be areal coverage and
magnitude of convection...followed by temps. Expecting isolated
strong to locally severe storms to fire late this aftn along
pre-frontal trof and associated weak embedded 5h vort in the
flow aloft. The pre- storm environment this aftn/evening shows
CAPE values between 1500 to 2000 j/kg with a ribbon of enhanced
0 to 3 km/0 to 6 km shear values between 40 and 50 knots. This
instability/shear supports isolated/scattered cluster of storms
with some individual bowing line segments. The 1st round looks
to impact mainly the eastern Dacks...southern/central CPV... and
parts of central/southern and eastern VT between 20-00z this
evening. Expecting a few strong to severe storms in this time
period. Meanwhile...another broken line of showers/storms will
be approaching the SLV by 00z this evening. Still some
uncertainty with regards to amount of instability with cool lake
water impacting environment...along with impacts of upstream
convection stabilizing atmosphere. If environment can recover
enough btwn 00z-03z...expecting a broken line of strong storms
with some enhanced wind threat associated with very strong 925mb
to 850mb winds of 45 to 55 knots. These storms will weaken as
they enter the CPV around midnight tonight.

A very mild start to the evening expected with temps mainly in the
70s to near 80f in areas away from convection...but as strong cold
front swings across our region after midnight...expect temps to
quickly fall. By morning...expecting temps to range from the upper
40s slv/western dacks to lower 60s near VSF.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
As of 350 PM EDT Thursday...sharp cold front is draped across
southern New England at 18z Friday with moderate low level caa
continuing across our cwa. Progged 850mb temps range between
10-12c around 12z...but fall between 2-4c by 18z
Friday...supporting nearly steady temps or falling during the
morning hours. Thinking clouds break up during the afternoon
hours and temps warm back into the mid 50s to lower 60s most
locations...but with breezy northwest will make for a chilly mid
May day. Some lingering mainly terrain drive rain showers are
possible from 12z to 16z...but rapid drying aloft... will quickly
dissipate showers by Friday afternoon.

Friday Night thru Saturday Night...1030mb high pres builds into the
region during this time period with dry conditions and cool temps.
Based on clear skies and winds decoupling in deeper protected
valleys...expect some patchy frost to develop. Best chances for
frost will be dacks and valleys of central/northern VT...including
the NEK. Will mention lows ranging from the mid/upper 20s NEK/SLK to
near 40F CPV/SLV. A nice day is expected on Saturday with plenty of
sunshine and slightly below normal temps.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 317 PM EDT Thursday...Upper level ridge and exiting
surface high pressure off the Atlantic seaboard will keep dry
conditions across the North Country to end the weekend with
increasing clouds ahead of our next system encroaching from the
west during the afternoon. Deep low pressure over southern
Ontario tracks eastward into central Quebec Sunday night through
Monday dragging a cold front through northern New York and
Vermont with showers developing late Sunday evening across
western areas and becoming widespread after midnight through
Monday as a weak wave of low pressure forms over the mid-
Atlantic states and rides northeast to the Gulf of Maine by
Monday night. In contrast to the previous forecast, the 12z
model suite indicates very little instability both at the
surface and aloft to support thunder so I`ve removed all
mention. Is a rumble or tow of thunder possible, sure. Just not
enough to justify it in the forecast.

Brief break in precipitation occurs Tuesday as we`ll be in
between systems, with the next chance for showers and potential
thunderstorms coming Wednesday/Wednesday night as deepening low
pressure over Great Lakes Tuesday night tracks northeast through
the St. Lawrence Valley.

Temps through the period will be very seasonal with highs in
the mid 60s to low 70s, and lows in the mid 40s to low 50s.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Through 18Z Friday...Primarily VFR conditions are expected
through 12Z Friday with 2 rounds of scattered showers and
thunderstorms this afternoon and evening briefly reducing
vsby/cigs to MVFR/IFR. After 12Z, there will be a gradual trend
towards MVFR as cigs lower behind a cold front passage. For
winds, gusty to locally strong south-southwest with gusts in the
20-35kt range persist through about midnight before shifting to
the west-northwest at 8-15kts.

Outlook...

Friday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Saturday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Saturday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Sunday: VFR. Slight Chance SHRA...TSRA.
Sunday Night: VFR. Likely SHRA...TSRA.
Monday: MVFR. Likely SHRA...TSRA.
Monday Night: VFR. Slight Chance SHRA.
Tuesday: VFR. Slight Chance SHRA.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Max Temp Records for 5/18/17

KBTV...89 set in 1989
KMPV...90 set in 1962
K1V4...92 set in 1906
KMSS...90 set in 1962

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...Wind Advisory until 11 PM EDT this evening for NYZ026-027-087.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Taber
NEAR TERM...Taber
SHORT TERM...Taber
LONG TERM...Lahiff
AVIATION...Lahiff
CLIMATE...WFO BTV



 
 
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