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  Monday October 22, 2018


NWS Area Forecast Discussion

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FXUS61 KBTV 191518

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
1118 AM EDT Fri Oct 19 2018

A warm front will lift across the North Country today with
increasing amounts of sunshine and much warmer temperatures by
this afternoon. Highs will warm back into the 50s most locations
with lows mainly in the 40s tonight. The chances for showers
increase late tonight into Saturday as a series of cold fronts
move across the forecast area. By Sunday, much cooler air
returns, along with a chance of mountain snow showers.


As of 1110 AM EDT Friday...Forecast remains on track late this
morning. Temperatures have moderated significantly compared to
yesterday, with temps headed upward toward afternoon highs in
the mid-upper 50s areawide under partly to mostly sunny skies.
Moderate southerly to southwesterly gradient flow will continue
thru this afternoon, with winds in the Champlain Valley locally
south 15-25 mph with gusts to 30 mph possible.

Previous discussion below:
IR satl pic shows plenty of mid/upper level clouds across our
region this morning from the combination of waa and lake
enhanced moisture. As sfc warm front shifts northeast of our cwa
and weak mid/upper lvl ridging develops, expect skies to become
mostly sunny this aftn. Progged 850mb temps surge btwn 5-7c by
21z this aftn, should support highs well into the 50s to near
60f locally at BTV. Some mixed signals as far as wind potential
today from soundings. Thinking slv with channeled sw to ne flow
and 925mb winds of 35 to 40 knots will have the potential for
localized gusts up to 30 knots or so, while cpv should see 25 to
30 knots by this aftn, as sfc heating promotes deeper mixing
profiles. The lack of forcing and limited moisture will continue
to keep forecast dry today.

Tonight...a mild night anticipated as breezy southwest flow
continues ahead of approaching s/w trof and sfc cold front.
Thinking some areas east of the green mtns will decouple and see
temps drop back into the mid/upper 30s, but most locations
experience lows in the 40s, with near 50f at btv. Winds will be
tricky, but should remain breezy across the cpv/slv and exposed
summits/ridgetop overnight. Moisture and 5h s/w energy approach
the slv by 03z, so quickly increase pops into the likely/cat
pops for this area. These higher likely pops will expand into
the northern VT mtns by Saturday morning. Have 30% pops for the
cpv as progged southwest 850mb jet of 35 to 45 knots will
promote downslope shadowing across the cpv overnight.

On Saturday...a series of cold front will begin to move across
our fa with gradually cooling profiles, especially at the 850mb
level. Given strong 925mb to 850mb wind profiles pops/qpf once
again will be trrn driven with highest values over the high
peaks and northern/central VT mountains. Overall, pws ahead of
this system are only 0.40 to 0.50 so qpf amounts will be light
and generally under 0.20. Progged 850mb temps start btwn 1-3c
on Saturday morning, but drop to near -3c by 21z, supporting
snow levels lowering to 3500 feet by late aftn, summit temps
fall below freezing. Expect highs generally upper 30s summits to
mid 50s warmer valleys on Saturday with breezy southwest winds
becoming west by late aftn.


As of 325 AM EDT Friday...Upper level trough will be crossing
the Northern New York and Vermont area on Saturday night and
will have some lingering light rain and snow showers with cold
air advection underway. There will also be a secondary wave with
increased moisture aiding in the development of the
aforementioned showers. Temperatures Saturday night will range
from the lower 20s to the lower 30s, warmest in the Champlain
valley. Showers will mainly be in the form of snow, with
exception being the immediate Champlain valley where the temps
may be warm enough for liquid precipitation. Accumulating snow
will be confined to the higher elevations of the northern
Adirondacks, Green Mountains, and the Northeast Kingdom, and
should generally stay under an inch in all but the highest
summits. Sunday will be a cold day, similar to Thursday, with
temperatures only reaching the mid 30s to around 40. Cold air
advection continues with upper level trough pushing eastward,
and a ridge of surface high pressure building into the North
country. Any lingering mountain snow showers will end early
Sunday morning. Winds will be gusty out of the northwest, not a
very pleasant October day.


As of 325 AM EDT Friday...The extended portion of the forecast
will feature cooler than normal temperatures with maximum
temperatures remaining in the 40s for the rest of the week.
Minimum temperatures will generally be in the 30s, which is
closer to normal. High will continue to ridge into the area
Sunday night, but then slide off to our Southeast on Monday and
Monday night. As the high slides eastward, southwesterly flow
will bring a chance of light lake effect snow showers to our
Northern New York zones. Another upper level trough and some
shortwave energy will bring a renewed chance for showers on
Tuesday and Tuesday night. Then we`ll have a drier second half
to the week with another surface ridge building over our area.


Through 12Z Saturday...VFR conditions will prevail at all taf
sites through today with mostly clear skies. A brief period of
mvfr cigs are possible at slk btwn 12-14z this morning per
obs/satl trends. Otherwise, sfc heating will help in mixing of
stronger winds aloft toward the surface with localized gusts
btwn 20 to 30 knots likely this aftn, especially slk/mss/btv.
These winds will prevail overnight with some areas of moderate
turbulence possible. Showers approach western taf sites btwn
02-06z with some mvfr vis/cigs possible at slk, with a gradual
wind shift to the west toward sunrise.


Saturday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Windy with gusts
to 30 kt. Chance SHRA.
Saturday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance
SHRA, Chance SHSN.
Sunday: VFR. Slight chance SHSN.
Sunday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Monday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
Monday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA,
Chance SHSN.
Tuesday: Mainly MVFR, with local VFR possible. Chance SHRA.


Lake wind advisory in effect today for south winds increasing to
15 to 25 knots by this afternoon and waves building 1 to 3 feet,
except some higher swells in the broad lake. South winds
continue at 20 to 30 knots tonight, before shifting to the west
on Saturday afternoon.




NEAR TERM...Banacos/Taber
LONG TERM...Neiles

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