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  Tuesday August 20, 2019

 

NWS Area Forecast Discussion


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660
FXUS61 KBTV 180026
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
826 PM EDT Sat Aug 17 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
Scattered showers and strong thunderstorms will push east of
Vermont late this evening as an upper level disturbance departs
across northern Maine tonight. Humid air will linger in place
across the North Country with patchy fog overnight, especially
in locations that received rainfall. A few additional showers
and isolated thunderstorms will redevelop on Sunday. Valley high
temperatures will again reach the mid 80s in most locations.
Additional showers and thunderstorms are possible during the
first half of the work week before a cooler air mass settles in
across New York and northern New England toward the end of the
week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 826 PM EDT Saturday...Updates to sky cover, temps and
pops to bring fields in better line with exiting showers/thunder
and expected quieter weather overnight. A fairly impressive
QLCS evolved earlier this evening across central/eastern NY into
the Hudson Valley and southern VT. The activity developed along
an enhanced band of PVA ahead of a distinct shortwave pushing
through the SLV at this hour. Scattered reports of wind damage
were fairly commonplace along the line, including across parts
of Rutland and Windsor Counties. Please see our latest storm
reports and those from WFO ALY for more specific damage
information across our region. In regard to the overnight
forecast, that largely remains on track. Relatively small
wavelength shortwave ridging is still on track to bridge into
the area later tonight with increasing subsidence and partly
cloudy skies. Given this evening`s rainfall, patchy fog a good
bet in favored locales, especially from the Green Mtns eastward
where boundary layer flow will be lightest. Low temperatures to
remain slightly above seasonal mid-August norms in the lower to
mid 60s.

Excerpts from prior discussion...
On Sunday, brief shortwave ridging occurs with quiet weather
during the morning hours. A modest mid-level vort arriving in
wswly flow may yield a few additional showers and thunderstorms
during the peak heating hours, and included 20-30 PoPs to cover
this potential during the afternoon. Very warm and humid
conditions otherwise, with highs again 82-86F in most valley
sections.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
As of 301 PM EDT Saturday...Monday will be the warmest day of
the week as continued warm air advection allows 925mb temps to
climb to 22+ deg C, supporting surface temperatures in the mid
80s to near 90. Humidity will also be on the rise with dewpoints
rising into the upper 60s to near 70 as a warm front moves
through. Forecast soundings suggest afternoon mixing will reduce
dewpoints during peak heating hours, which will keep heat
indices somewhat in check...with heat indices in the upper 80s
to low 90s expected. Will have to watch the trends in cloud
cover with the warm front pushing through -if cloud cover is
more than expected we`d underachieve on afternoon highs. There
will be some showers and thunderstorms that pop up during the
afternoon hours amid the unstable air mass, mainly terrain
driven due to the lack of focused forcing. A cold front will
move through from the northwest to southwest early Monday
night, putting an end to any remaining showers as drier air is
ushered in from the northwest. The remainder of the night will
be dry with lows in the low to mid 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 301 PM EDT Saturday...Forecast trending a little less
unsettled for the long term time range as the better instability
and moisture next week looks now to mainly stay to our south.
Most noticeable change to the forecast is to trend Tuesday drier
with rising confidence in high pressure building in at the
surface and subtle 500 mb height rises over the area. Although
925 mb temps won`t be quite as warm as Monday`s, solar heating
will offset the slightly cooler air and temperatures will again
rise into the mid 80s. Tuesday will, however, be noticeably
less humid than Monday given the drier air moving in from the
northwest. Wednesday and Wednesday night are still on track to
be rather wet as a cold front sweeps through, resulting in
showery conditions mid week. Once the front clears the area,
expect cooler and drier temperatures to return for the end of
the week with highs in the 70s and lows in the 50s.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Through 00Z Monday...Mainly VFR through the period. Only
exception will be patchy dense fog at KSLK and KMPV, roughly in
the 05-12Z time frame. Patchy MVFR br and/or brief FG also
possible at other terminals, but confidence much lower at these
sites. Winds generally light and less than 6 kts overnight.
After 12Z VFR continues under light south to southwesterly flow
from 5-10 kts. Scattered showers and a few storms to possible
encroach from the southwest toward KSLK and KRUT after 21Z, but
confidence low on occurrence at this time.

Outlook...

Sunday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA, Chance TSRA.
Monday: VFR. Chance SHRA, Chance TSRA.
Monday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
Tuesday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA.
Wednesday: VFR. Chance SHRA, Chance TSRA.
Wednesday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance
SHRA, Slight chance TSRA.
Thursday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Banacos
NEAR TERM...JMG/Banacos
SHORT TERM...Duell
LONG TERM...Duell
AVIATION...JMG



 
 
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