FXUS61 KBTV 141358
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
958 AM EDT Sat Oct 14 2017
A cold front will remain north and west of the area today. A few
showers will be possible over the far northern portions of New
York and Vermont as a result with cloudy skies elsewhere. Above
normal temperatures are expected with highs in the 60s. The
front will sag south tonight and increase precipitation chances
over most of the area...but then lift northward on Sunday
allowing for breezy and warm conditions to develop with
temperatures 15 to 20 degrees above normal for this time of
year. Eventually a line of showers and possible thunderstorms
will move across northern New York Sunday afternoon and during
the evening hours across Vermont. Wind gusts in the 35 to 45 mph
range will be possible Sunday afternoon and night.
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
As of 958 AM EDT Saturday...Main front is still well back to
the west and northwest of the area this morning. Just a few
light showers are associated with the front and they will move
east and northeast across the area today. The showers will
mainly be north of a Saranac Lake to Burlington to Saint
Johnsbury line. Have tweaked the grids to depict this
scenario...otherwise going forecast in real good shape with no
other changes needed at this point.
Frontal boundary moves closer towards the region today. Clouds
will continue to increase ahead of the southwesterly flow along
with some isolated shower activity mainly across the northern
and western portions of the CWA through the late morning. The
front will finally sag into the northern half of the North
Country Saturday evening, bringing with it another round of more
widespread showers. Early morning Sunday, the front will wave
back to the north and activity will move back north of the
international border before dawn.
High temperatures for today will be just above normal with
highs in the mid to upper 60s with some valley locations seeing
up to 70. Overnight lows will be again mild with lows in the
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 323 PM EDT Friday...Deep-layer ridge across the western
Atlantic will maintain strong S-SW gradient flow across the
North Country on Sunday, in advance of frontal system crossing
the Great Lakes. Bulk of the daylight hrs will be breezy and
seasonably warm. 850mb temperatures reaching +13 to +14C should
yield valley high temperatures in the mid-upr 70s. Record highs
are generally in the low 80s for October 15th, so will be close.
It appears a pre-frontal trough will cross nrn NY 21-00Z, and
then move across VT 00-03Z Monday, with cold front and onset of
stronger low-level CAA crossing from west to east a few hours
later. Minimal CAPE, but strong deep-layer forcing may yield a
reflectivity fine line as depicted by the 00Z BTV-4kmWRF and 00Z
NAM-Nest. Included a slight chance of thunder 21-03Z across St.
Lawrence and Franklin counties. Absence of CAPE should preclude
lightning threat further east. Most areas should see shower
activity, and included max PoPs of 70-80 percent Sunday evening.
Gradient flow will create widespread breezy conditions Sunday,
generally 10-20 mph with gusts to 35 mph. Gusts may reach 40
mph across the St. Lawrence and Champlain Valleys with channeled
flow. Will also need to watch evolution of any convection late
in the day. Swly flow 50-60kts about 2kft AGL could mix down
with possible wind damage if convective line becomes organized.
Have made mention of the expected gusty winds in the HWO, and
will continue to monitor.
Flow turns westerly Sunday night with FROPA, generally 10-20 mph
with a few gusts to 30 mph continuing with steep low-level lapse
rates in low-level CAA regime. Will see more seasonable air mass
moving into the North Country. Lows will generally be in the
40s, with a few upper 30s possible across the nrn Adirondacks.
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 323 PM EDT Friday...It continues to appear that most of
the long-term period will be tranquil. High pressure will be in
control across the ern third of the CONUS during the work week.
Will see valley highs in the 50s MON-TUE, moderating into the
mid-upr 60s WED-FRI. Will need to watch for possible frost
Monday night in the Champlain Valley before the warming trend
.AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Through 00Z Sunday...A mix of MVFR and VFR ceilings around the
CWA as a frontal boundary over Northern NY also will bring some
isolated showers around SLK/MSS through mid morning in addition
to the lower clouds. Ceilings will improve back to VFR all
around after the front waves north this afternoon. This evening
a cold front begins to move in from the west bringing more
widespread showers for both SLK/MSS after 00Z.
Expect continued southerly winds of 5-10 knots.
Sunday: VFR. Windy with gusts to 33 kts. Slight Chance SHRA.
Sunday Night: VFR. Windy with gusts to 36 kts. Chance SHRA.
Monday: VFR. Breezy. NO SIG WX.
Monday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday: VFR. Breezy. Slight Chance SHRA.
Tuesday Night: VFR. Slight Chance SHRA.
Wednesday: VFR. NO SIG WX.