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  Thursday October 19, 2017

 

NWS Area Forecast Discussion


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000
FXUS61 KBTV 161851
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
251 PM EDT Mon Oct 16 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Canadian high pressure will build into the area tonight with slowly
clearing skies and chilly temperatures with areas of frost expected.
High pressure remains atop the region for the remainder of the week
with fair weather expected along with mild temperatures.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 251 PM EDT Monday...A mainly cloudy and cool day
generally panned out as expected as temperatures have held
nearly steady in the 40s under blustery, though gradually
diminishing northwesterly flow. A few sprinkles and summit level
freezing drizzle has persisted this afternoon, but with
thinning moisture profiles this should wane and end through the
evening hours. High pressure will continue to build into the
region tonight with skies clearing over time as winds abate to
light. This will set the stage for seasonably chilly lows in the
25 to 35 degree range with customary variability and
frost/freeze headlines continue for the immediate Champlain
Valley where the local frost/freeze program remains in place.

By Tuesday into Tuesday night high pressure will build atop and east
of the area with mainly clear/sunny skies expected outside a few
passing high clouds. Winds trend southerly and become a bit gusty
from the Champlain Valley west by afternoon as high temperatures
range through the 50s, staying milder and only falling into the 35
to 45 degree range overnight, coldest east.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY/...
As of 338 AM EDT Monday...High pressure will dominate the
weather pattern throughout the rest of the week. Quiet and dry
conditions are expected with little in the way of weather to
speak of. Slight warm air advection will increase temps back
above normal with 925mb temps warming to +12 to +14 which will
support highs in the 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 338 AM EDT Monday...The persistent upper level ridge will
continue to build over the North Country leaving almost nil
chances for precip through the weekend. Temps will continue to
be above normal with highs in 60s and lows in the mid 40s. We
should see a slight airmass change on Thursday as a upper level
low pressure system over the Hudson Bay will try to drag a cold
front through the North Country but the system will be moisture
deprived so even if the front gets here there shouldn`t be any
chance for rain. The more likely solution is that we see some
cloud cover on Thursday into Friday and that leads to a
dampening of temperatures. The weekend looks like its going to
be another warm one as warm air advection will bring temps near
70 to the Champlain Valley with full sun. All in all the
extended is fairly quiet with calm weather expected.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Through 18Z Tuesday...A mix of BKN/OVC MVFR/VFR cigs will trend
mainly SKC from 06Z Tuesday onward as high pressure builds into
the region. Highest confidence of MVFR cigs at KSLK/KMPV/KRUT
terminals through 00Z Tue where a brief sprinkle will be
possible. Winds northwest 6 to 12 knots and occasionally gusty
into the 15-20 kt range at eastern terminals through 00Z before
trending light overnight. After 12Z Tuesday flow trends
southerly and slowly increases, especially from the Champlain
Valley west.

Outlook...

Tuesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Thursday: VFR. Breezy. NO SIG WX.
Thursday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Friday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Friday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Saturday: VFR. NO SIG WX.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...Freeze Warning from 1 AM to 8 AM EDT Tuesday for VTZ002-005-
     009.
     Frost Advisory from 1 AM to 8 AM EDT Tuesday for VTZ001.
NY...Freeze Warning from 1 AM to 8 AM EDT Tuesday for NYZ028-035.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMG
NEAR TERM...JMG
SHORT TERM...Deal
LONG TERM...Deal
AVIATION...JMG


 
 
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