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  Tuesday May 23, 2017

 

NWS Area Forecast Discussion


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000
FXUS61 KBTV 181513
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
1113 AM EDT Thu May 18 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Near record high temperatures expected today, along with gusty
southwest winds, especially the Saint Lawrence Valley. The heat
will help to fuel strong to locally severe thunderstorms late
this afternoon into the overnight hours. The primary threat will
be damaging winds and one inch hail. Much cooler and drier
weather returns to the North Country on Friday into the upcoming
weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL MIDNIGHT TONIGHT/...
As of 1103 AM EDT Thursday...Overall elements in good shape this
morning as temps quickly warm into the l/m 80s with 86 already
here and 88f at PBG at 11 am. Expecting highs in the upper 80s
to lower 90s in most locations.

Still looking at convection to fire this
afternoon/evening...with some uncertainty on areal coverage and
placement. Water vapor shows weak 5h vort in southwest flow
aloft across ohio valley/western ny with associated EML. This
energy and instability will interact with lake breezy boundaries
and higher terrain to help in development of isolated to
scattered storms this afternoon after 18z. Thinking storms
develop over the eastern dacks between 18z-20z...and impact
parts of central/southern VT...where CAPE values will range
between 1500 and 2000 j/kg and 0 to 3 km shear of around 40
knots. CAPE/Shear would support organized convection...but the
lack of significant forcing at the surface and aloft will limit
magnitude and coverage. Thinking pulse like convection with
some potential for isolated wind/hail between 20z-24z.
Meanwhile...better dynamics and surface convergence approaches
the SLV btwn 00-03z. Expecting additional storms to
develop...but still uncertain on impacts from cooler lake
ontario waters and timing in late evening...will have on
instability. Thinking a broken line of storms with damaging
winds will be the primary threat...mainly across northern ny
between 00-04z. Finally wind advisory looks good...as latest RAP
shows 925mb of 50 to 55 knots around 00z across the SLV. Expect
surface wind gusts between 45 and 50 mph.

Previous discussion below:
Temperatures starting in the 60s to low 70s this morning with
dewpoints in the 50s. Both temperatures and dewpoints will
increase in SW flow today, resulting in hot and muggy
conditions. Active weather day is on tap for today. Pre frontal
trough will approach this afternoon, followed by a cold front
overnight. Strong southwesterly flow will be in place across the
area, with a wind advisory in place for the St Lawrence Valley.
Temperatures will also approach record high values today with
upper 80s to lower 90s across the area. Surface dewpoints climb
into the 60s this afternoon with deep layer moisture being
advected into our region on the southwesterly flow.

Warm temperatures and high dewpoints will create surface
instability, Cape values will be around 1500 during the
afternoon with 0 to 6 km shear 45-55 kts. Hi res models showing
first round of convection starting up around 4 or 5 pm,
spreading from Essex County NY southeastward across Vermont.
Gusty winds and small hail are possible and potential to become
severe will need to be monitored. Not a lot of large scale lift
yet though, maybe a limiting factor as previous forecaster
noted. By about 8-9 pm a more organized line of storms, strong
to severe, will approach the St Lawrence valley. With these
storms the primary threat will be strong gusty winds, possibly
damaging, with very strong low level wind fields noted. These
storms will have better forcing with cold front and accompanying
surface convergence. Think that these storms will cone through
in the form of a line. Best chance for damaging winds will be
across Northern New York and edging into the Champlain valley,
but the air mass will generally be more stable across Vermont
and storms may not hold together. Have continued with mention of
enhanced wording, gusty winds small hail and heavy rain. Wind
advisory also remains in effect from 18z to 03z for the Saint
Lawrence valley with strong gradient flow out of the Southwest.
Wind gusts in the 40 mph range are expected, with wind gusts in
the 30s across the rest of the forecast area. Surface cold front
continues to push across our forecast area overnight, and
should clear our forecast area by about 12z. Lots of ingredients
in place for some potentially severe weather today, though
still a bit of uncertainty with proximity to cold waters of Lake
Ontario as storms cross that area, as well as unfavorable
timing of surface cold frontal passage. Very hot windy day for
sure though with at least some strong storms.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MIDNIGHT TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 445 AM EDT Thursday...Last bit of shortwave energy in
upper level trof kicks across our forecast area early Friday,
showers are likely through about 18z. From Friday afternoon
through Saturday surface and upper level ridges will build over
our area, much drier and cooler air will be in place. This time
period will be much cooler than the previous 2 days, but much
closer to seasonal normals, generally highs in the 60s and lows
in the 40s. There may be areas of frost in the deeper/protected
valleys of the Adirondacks and Northern Vermont.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 435 AM EDT Thursday...The weekend will start with a ridge
of high pressure over the North Country through early Sunday.
The latter half of Sunday will see increasing chances of showers
as the surface ridge shifts east into the Atlantic. 500mb ridge
will crest over the region late Sunday, allowing for surface
front to approach from the west and produce showers and possible
thunderstorms Sunday night and Monday. The front and associated
low pressure will push east Monday night and Tuesday with
drying conditions, but remain in southwest flow and keep
temperatures near normal. A large 500mb will dig into the Great
Lakes area for the mid-week, bringing another chance for
showers.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Through 12Z Friday...VFR conditions expected to persist with
strong low level wind shear of 40 to 50 kts becoming strong
gusty SW winds as low level jet mixes in the late morning
through the rest of today. Expect gusts of 25 to 35
kts...possibly around 40kts in the Saint Lawrence Valley during
the afternoon hours. Daytime heating and abundant moisture
likely to result in instability and scattered rain showers
during the early afternoon. Thunderstorms may develop with these
showers associated with lift of prefrontal trough, followed by
a cold front moving across the North Country overnight. Possible
MVFR conditions within heavier showers and thunderstorms.

Wind gusts expected to subside after 06Z with exception of
KSLK.

Outlook...

Friday: VFR. Breezy. Chance SHRA.
Friday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Saturday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Saturday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Sunday: VFR. Slight Chance SHRA...TSRA.
Sunday Night: VFR. Likely SHRA...TSRA.
Monday: MVFR. Likely SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Max Temp Records for 5/18/17

KBTV...89 set in 1989
KMPV...90 set in 1962
K1V4...92 set in 1906
KMSS...90 set in 1962

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
The WSR-88D at Fort Drum (KTYX) will be unavailable through
Thursday May 18, 2017. During the outage, radar coverage is
available from adjacent radar sites including Burlington (KCXX),
Albany (KENX), Buffalo (KBUF), and Binghamton (KBGM).

A new signal processor will be installed, which replaces
obsolete technology, improves processing speed and data quality,
provides added functionality, and supports IT security.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...Wind Advisory until 11 PM EDT this evening for NYZ026-027-087.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Neiles
NEAR TERM...Neiles/Taber
SHORT TERM...Neiles
LONG TERM...KGM
AVIATION...KGM
CLIMATE...WFO BTV
EQUIPMENT...WFO BTV



 
 
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