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  Monday June 26, 2017


NWS Area Forecast Discussion

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FXUS61 KBTV 220801

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
401 AM EDT Thu Jun 22 2017

High pressure will build into the region through this afternoon
with dry and seasonably pleasant weather expected. Showers and
thunderstorms return to the region by overnight Thursday into
Friday morning with locally heavy rainfall possible. A brief
return to dry weather is expected on Saturday before more
showers return for the early portions of next week.


As of 341 AM EDT Thursday...High pressure will continue to build
into the North Country today. Mostly clear skies should continue
through the morning and we`ve been fortunate that the boundary
layer winds have stayed elevated enough to not see much in the
way of fog development although its not that far away as the
GOES-R Fog product shows fog creeping into the river valleys of
central NY and across portions of Quebec. The lone exception to
that is Saranac Lake were literally as I typed the previous
sentence the visibility started to fall due to ground fog

The daylight hours should be quite pleasant across the North
Country under mostly clear skies through the morning. Mid to
high level clouds will begin to build in from the west as a warm
front lifts to the north. The warm air will advecting in but
shouldn`t have a significant impact on max temps as 925mb temps
will only warm to 17-19C supporting highs in the upper 70s.

In the overnight hours, the PWATs surge to 1.7-2.0 inches and
moisture convergence increase at the surface leading to rather
healthy rain showers developing. The best chance for the showers
is generally over norther New York where some areas will see up
to an inch of rain overnight. With the warm air advection
continuing expect lows to trend warmer in the upper 50s to low
60s under south/southwesterly flow and increasing clouds.


As of 322 PM EDT Wednesday...Heavy rainfall and isolated severe
storms are the main stories for Friday. SHRA/TSRA activity to
continue both Friday and Friday night. Model consensus PW values
in excess of 1.5" approaching 2" in some areas, along with deep
warm cloud depth will lead to convective activity being very
rainfall efficient. Can`t pin down any one location to suggest
an enhanced risk of flooding and overall the system is fairly
progressive so no watches at this time.

Isolated severe also possible with 0-6km deep-layer shear
values of 30-40kt would suggest organized convection possible
given a sufficient amount of instability is able to be realized.
Good veering in the low levels in model profiles leaving fairly
large low level hodographs so can`t rule out a supercell,
again, given sufficient instability. Saturated and warm profiles
suggest hail potential is minimal, and primary risk would be
damaging winds. In the wake of the retreating warm front, there
still appears to be a fair amount of cloud cover and shower
activity so despite models indicating higher CAPE numbers, feel
that we`ll probably only be able to realize 500-100 j/kg MLCAPE
at best. We`ll have to see what light can shed by newer guidance
on the evolution of cloud cover and shower activity for the
early part of Friday and its attendant effect on convective
evolution of the day.


As of 322 PM EDT Wednesday...SHRA/TSRA activity with heavy
rainfall risk continues for the early part of Friday night
before organized activity moves east early Saturday.

Broad upper level trof remains over the Great Lakes and
northeast into the middle part of next week. Can`t really find
any one period in the extended that will be completely dry with
cyclonic flow aloft and weak shortwaves rotating around the base
of the trof. SHRA chances will continue in the forecast through
the period.


Through 06Z Friday...VFR conditions expected through the rest
of the overnight and into Thursday afternoon. Clouds will begin
building into the north country this afternoon as a warm front
will bring rain showers to the northern taf sites shortly after
00z Friday. Choose to offer VCSH for all sites with prevailing
-SHRA between 01-03z for BTV/PBG/MSS/SLK. Winds light WSW turn
 more SW tomorrow.


Friday: VFR/MVFR. Breezy. Likely SHRA...Slight chance TSRA.
Friday Night:VFR/MVFR. Likely SHRA...Slight Chance TSRA.
Saturday: VFR. Chance SHRA.
Saturday Night: VFR. Slight Chance SHRA.
Sunday: VFR. Chance SHRA...Slight Chance TSRA.
Sunday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA...Slight Chance TSRA.
Monday: VFR. Chance SHRA...Slight Chance TSRA.




SHORT TERM...Manning
LONG TERM...Manning

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