Current conditions from King Hill
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  Monday August 21, 2017


NWS Area Forecast Discussion

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FXUS61 KBTV 191747

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
147 PM EDT Sat Aug 19 2017

An upper level trough of low pressure will move east from the Upper
Midwest and reach northern New England by tonight. Clouds and a few
showers are expected across the area today into this evening with
highs in the mid 70s to lower 80s. Drier air moves in on Sunday with
more sunshine expected and highs once again in the mid 70s to the
lower 80s. We are still looking at mostly sunny skies for
Monday...the day of the solar eclipse... with highs in the lower
to mid 80s. Another trough of low pressure approaches the region
on Tuesday and will increase the chances for showers and


As of 144 PM EDT Saturday...Scattered to broken clouds with
some isolated showers mainly over the Adirondacks and into the
Champlain valley. Any shower will be brief and light.
Temperatures warming into the upper 70s to low 80s at early
afternoon and just about at their daytime highs. Earlier
forecast tracking along well and no changes needed.

Broad southwesterly flow today as the forecast area is between
a ridge to our east and an approaching trough to the west.
Boundary layer flow mainly south to southwesterly, and plentiful
low level moisture feeding cloud coverage and scattered showers.
A little bit of instability from what sun reaches the ground
fueling isolated showers, but little if any forcing/lift.

500 mb trough will sweep west to east through the region
tonight. Surface trough follows along, and while not big airmass
change for cooling temperatues a westerly wind component will
advect drier air into the forecast area. Isolated showers
possible mainly before midnight and in northeast Vermont in
lingering low level moisture and as upper trough passes.
Surface dewpoints will fall from mid 60s into the 50s from west
to east overnight. Still quite a bit of cloud cover tonight, and
along with dewpoints will limit cooling of overnight lows to
55-65 degrees.


As of 436 AM EDT Saturday...High pressure builds into the
region on Sunday and moves south and east of the area on Monday.
Dry weather is expected during this period with increasing
amounts of sunshine each day. Highs on Sunday will be in the mid
70s to lower 80s with warmer temperatures on Monday as highs
will generally be in the lower to mid 80s. Solar eclipse viewing
should be good on Monday.


As of 430 AM EDT Saturday...All of the interesting weather in
the extended portion of the forecast will occur Tuesday and
Wednesday. Low pressure system approaches from the Great Lakes
region early Tuesday, northeastward towards Eastern Quebec by
Wednesday morning. Cold front associated with this low pressure
system will cross our forecast area Tuesday night into early
Wednesday. Best chance for showers will be overnight Tuesday.
May see some thunderstorms Tuesday afternoon ahead of
approaching cold front. Tuesday will be a bit cooler than Monday
but still much above seasonal normals, lower to upper 80s.
Highest temperatures will be in t

Wide range of conditions expected across
the area with plenty of low level moisture around. Overall
looking at VFR to MVFR conditions...but there will be periods of
IFR to VLIFR ceilings of visibilities through 12z due to low
clouds and fog. After 12z enough mixing will take place to
remove the low clouds and fog with southwest winds in the 5 to
15 knot range. There may be a few showers that move across the
area after 22z...but should not have an impact on aviation.
he Champlain and Connecticut
river valleys in Southern Vermont. A weaker surface trough
crosses our area Thursday, but only chance for some light
showers with this feature. Then a large ridge of surface high
pressure will build for the end of the week.


Through 12Z Sunday...VFR visibility and vfr sct-bkn sky cover
through late evening with plentiful low level moisture.
Ceilings lowering to IFR in the Adirondacks/KSLK and MVFR in
Green Mountains/KMPV 06-13z timeframe with passage of upper
trough. After 12-13z vfr scattered clouds. Surface winds
southwest to west.


Sunday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Monday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Monday Night: VFR. Slight Chance SHRA.
Tuesday: VFR. Chance SHRA...Slight Chance TSRA.
Tuesday Night: VFR/MVFR. Likely SHRA.
Wednesday: VFR. Chance SHRA.
Wednesday Night: VFR. Slight Chance SHRA.
Thursday: VFR. Slight Chance SHRA.




NEAR TERM...Hanson
SHORT TERM...Evenson
LONG TERM...Neiles

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