50.6°F
Current conditions from King Hill
Updated every 5 minutes
 
  Tuesday May 23, 2017

 

NWS Area Forecast Discussion


Current Report   Previous reports > 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

000
FXUS61 KBTV 202344
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
744 PM EDT Sat May 20 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Strong high pressure across Quebec and northern New England will
result in a chilly and mostly clear night, and continued fair
weather for much of the day Sunday. With clear skies and
diminishing wind, expecting some areas of frost after midnight
across the Northern Adirondack region, as well as portions of
north-central into northeastern Vermont. Will see a gradual
increase in clouds later Sunday as a warm front approaches from
the southwest. This warm front will bring overcast skies and
periods of rain during Sunday night into Monday morning.
Rainfall amounts between one- third and one-half inch are
generally expected across the North Country. Tuesday will see
a brief return of surface high pressure.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 610 PM EDT Saturday...Update is just to make forecast
current. Sunny, clear skies and winds are starting to abate with
temperatures near daytime highs. Temperatures and winds will
continue to drop as sun sets in a few hours.


Afternonn discussion...Relatively quiet conditions over the
next 24 hrs, with areas of frost tonight in the nrn Adirondacks
and n-central/nern VT the only concern for agricultural
interests. Strong (1035mb) surface anticyclone centered across
western Quebec resulting in clear skies for the North Country,
though winds have been a bit brisk from the N-NE at 10-20 mph.
PBL will quickly stabilize this evening resulting in diminishing
winds, generally NE at 5 mph or less in most locations. With
sfc dewpoints in the mid-upr 20s this aftn, should set up good
radiative cooling conditions overnight. Looking for lows early
Sunday morning ranging from the upr 30s to lower 40s in the St.
Lawrence and Champlain Valleys, and generally low-mid 30s east
of the Green Mtns and in the northern Adirondacks. There will be
some normally colder spots - such as Saranac Lake (KSLK) and
Island Pond - that will likely see lows dip into the 20s
tonight. Added srn St. Lawrence County and western Clinton
County to the frost advisory, while keeping n-central/nern VT as
is in the frost advisory...which runs thru 11Z Sunday. PoPs NIL
tonight.

Will see temperatures rise quickly on Sunday, as winds turn into
the south around 10 mph. Afternoon highs will be warmer than the
past couple of days, generally ranging from the upr 60s to lower
70s. Anticipate filtered sunshine as upr- mid level clouds
spread ewd from the Great Lakes with increasing mid- level WAA
regime moving in. That said, there is good amplification of a
shortwave ridge across NY/New England 700-500mb layer during
the daylight hrs...and a lack of low-level convergence. Thus,
kept conditions dry Sunday, with just a slight chance of a rain
shower moving into St. Lawrence/Franklin Co toward 23Z (7pm)
Sunday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
As of 314 PM EDT Saturday...Will see an unsettled period of
weather, with well-defined region of 850-700mb WAA and
isentropic lift moving enewd across our region during Sunday
night thru Monday morning. Rain showers should overspread the
region from W-E during Sunday night, per consensus of mesoscale
and global model suite. We have increased PoPs to near 80
percent for the pre- dawn hrs Monday based on latest trends in
NWP guidance. Should see shower activity gradually move out
from west to east Monday morning with decreased forcing for
ascent and drier deep-layer RH values into Monday aftn. All in
all, looking for 0.33-0.50" precipitation, likely highest in the
nrn Adirondacks with S-SW flow regime setting up. Lows on
Sunday night generally 45-52F, with Monday`s highs in the low-
mid 60s from the Champlain Valley wwd, and in the low-mid 50s
with lingering low overcast expected for ern VT. Winds will
increase from the south during Sunday night, generally 10-15
mph. We may briefly see Lake Wind Advisory criteria on Lake
Champlain from 07Z-14Z Monday, with south winds across the broad
lake of 15-25 kt.

Generally quiet Monday night with variably cloudy conditions.
Additionally, SW flow regime will keep temps on the mild side,
generally in the mid-upr 40s.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 344 PM EDT Saturday...Tuesday looks to be a quiet start
to the long term period after the passage of a cold front. Winds
remain southwesterly behind the front so little change in
temperatures lead to an rebound back into the 70`s for the day.
From here the models disagree but overall show a more unsettled
period into the weekend.

The ECMWF shows a coastal low moving northeast into New England
bringing precipitation all the way into the counties east of
the Green Mountains, while the GFS keeps the low further out to
sea and keeping a precip far to the east of the CWA. Meanwhile,
both show a positively tilted upper trough associated surface
low over the midwest with the GFS quickly closing off the upper
low by Wednesday morning. This slows the progression of the
system while the ECMWF doesn`t show the low closing until closer
to Thursday. In both cases, this leads to an extended period of
potential showers for Wednesday through early Saturday morning
as tracks northeast past through the region and east out of the
area. Both models have very different solutions but come to the
same conclusion with chance to likely PoPs each day. Either
way, it should be a wet end to the week.

High temperatures in the long term will range from the upper 60s
to upper 70s, while lows will be in the 40s to 50s.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Through 00z Monday...VFR. No vsby restrictions expected. Skies
generally clear through tonight, becoming SCT-BKN150-250 during
Sunday AM as mid-upper level clouds filter in from the west then
gradually increasing and lowering through afternoon but still
VFR. Any showers will largely be confined to Northern NT late
Sunday afternoon. Light and variable winds tonight with stable
boundary layer conditions, then winds developing S-SE 5-10kts
on Sunday.

Outlook...

Sunday Night: VFR/MVFR. Likely SHRA.
Monday: MVFR. Breezy. Likely SHRA.
Monday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA.
Tuesday: VFR. Slight Chance SHRA.
Tuesday Night: VFR. Slight Chance SHRA.
Wednesday: VFR. Chance SHRA.
Wednesday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA.
Thursday: VFR/MVFR. Likely SHRA.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...Frost Advisory from midnight tonight to 7 AM EDT Sunday for
     VTZ003-004-006>008-010.
NY...Frost Advisory from midnight tonight to 7 AM EDT Sunday for
     NYZ029>031-034.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Banacos
NEAR TERM...Banacos/SLW
SHORT TERM...Banacos
LONG TERM...MV
AVIATION...Banacos/SLW


 
 
Current Radar Loop:

Copyright © WestfordWeather.net 2007-2017. All rights reserved.