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  Tuesday June 27, 2017

 

NWS Area Forecast Discussion


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000
FXUS61 KBTV 221901
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
301 PM EDT Thu Jun 22 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will build into the region through this afternoon
with dry and seasonably pleasant weather expected. Showers and
thunderstorms return to the region by overnight Thursday into
Friday morning with locally heavy rainfall possible. A brief
return to dry weather is expected on Saturday before more
showers return for the early portions of next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
As of 1008 AM EDT Thursday...Only minor changes to previous
forecast for today. Can`t ask for a much nicer day than today,
minimal cloud cover, and very low precipitation chances. Feel
that best chance for showers remains Adirondacks and westward
and generally very late in the period this evening. Otherwise
lots of sun, low dewpoints and warm temperatures.

Previous discussion...High pressure will continue to build into
the North Country today. Mostly clear skies should continue
through the morning and we`ve been fortunate that the boundary
layer winds have stayed elevated enough to not see much in the
way of fog development although its not that far away as the
GOES-R Fog product shows fog creeping into the river valleys of
central NY and across portions of Quebec. The lone exception to
that is Saranac Lake were literally as I typed the previous
sentence the visibility started to fall due to ground fog
developing.

The daylight hours should be quite pleasant across the North
Country under mostly clear skies through the morning. Mid to
high level clouds will begin to build in from the west as a warm
front lifts to the north. The warm air will advecting in but
shouldn`t have a significant impact on max temps as 925mb temps
will only warm to 17-19C supporting highs in the upper 70s.

In the overnight hours, the PWATs surge to 1.7-2.0 inches and
moisture convergence increase at the surface leading to rather
healthy rain showers developing. The best chance for the showers
is generally over norther New York where some areas will see up
to an inch of rain overnight. With the warm air advection
continuing expect lows to trend warmer in the upper 50s to low
60s under south/southwesterly flow and increasing clouds.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 300 PM EDT Thursday...Mid/upper level trof will
deepen across the ne conus for the weekend with several embedded
vorts. Atmosphere will have much better dynamics to work with...but
moisture and stability profiles will be weaker than friday...so
expecting less areal coverage of showers and embedded rumbles of
thunder. Neither Sat or Sun will be a wash out...but will continue
to mention low chc pops between 18z-03z each aftn. Instability
ranges from 400 to 800 j/kg...with axis of highest values near the
international border each aftern/evening with strong mid/upper level
westerly flow. Soundings show slightly better instability with
steeper lapse rates on Sunday aftn with the potential for some
localized gusty winds...but threat is limited based on available
energy. Progged 850mb temps btwn 10-12c Saturday support mainly 70s
with values falling btwn 7-9c on Sunday supporting highs mid 60s to
l/m 70s warmer valleys. Lows mainly in the upper 40s to mid/upper
50s over the weekend. Depending upon areal coverage of precip...some
patchy fog is possible in the deeper protected valleys. Mid level
moisture associated with remnants of Cindy may produce a light
shower early Sat morning across extreme southern Rutland/Windsor
Counties and have continued to mention low chc to cover this
potential.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 300 PM EDT Thursday...Large scale synoptic pattern shows
mid/upper level trof persisting across the Great Lakes into the
ne conus. This general setup will support at or below normal
temps with chances for showers...as unsettled weather is
expected. Thermal profiles show limited instability with some
afternoon heating producing daily cape values between 300-600
j/kg. A rumble or two of thunder is possible...especially when
the strong dynamics arrive during peak heating hours...but
overall severe threat is limited. Have tried to focus higher
pops during the aftn/evening hours...except on Tues when better
dynamics and deeper moisture is present associated with
mid/upper level trof. Progged 850mb temps btwn 6-8c
Monday/Tuesday support highs in the mid 60s to lower 70s. These
low level thermal profiles slow warm back into the 9-11c by late
next week...supporting highs back into the mid 70s to lower
80s. Overnight lows range mainly in the mid 40s mountain valleys
to mid/upper 50s in the warmer urban areas of the Champlain
Valley.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Through 12Z Friday...VFR conditions expected through this
evening with mostly clear skies. Clouds will begin building
into the north country this evening as a warm front will bring
rain showers to the northern TAF sites shortly after 00z
Friday. Have introduced prevailing showers toward daybreak and
during the day tomorrow with MVFR visibilities at times. There
will be thunder, but the risk is conditional, and hard to pin
down any one time or location to include prevailing thunder in
any of the TAF sites at this time. Later cycles can re-evaluate
best thunder chances at specific TAF sites. Will also be some
LLWS tonight at SLK/MSS for a few hours as surface winds go
light with increasing low-level jet aloft.

Outlook...

Friday Night: VFR. Numerous SHRA...Isolated TSRA.
Saturday: VFR. Breezy. Isolated SHRA.
Saturday Night: VFR. Slight Chance SHRA.
Sunday: VFR. Likely SHRA.
Sunday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA...Slight Chance TSRA.
Monday: VFR. Chance SHRA...Slight Chance TSRA.
Monday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA...Slight Chance TSRA.
Tuesday: VFR. Chance SHRA.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Deal
NEAR TERM...Deal/Manning
SHORT TERM...Taber
LONG TERM...Taber
AVIATION...Manning



 
 
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