443
FXUS61 KBTV 232326
AFDBTV
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
626 PM EST Sun Nov 23 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
Precipitation will become terrain-driven in northwesterly
upslope flow supporting more snowfall in the mountains
overnight. A warm front will likely bring light rain late
Tuesday and provide above normal temperatures into Wednesday.
Then a cold front is expected to bring more showers on Wednesday
followed by cooler weather for Thanksgiving Day, when lake-
effect snow and breezy conditions are expected.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
As of 620 PM EST Sunday...Tonight, the clipper will shift off
into the Gulf of Maine, bringing moderate northwesterly flow and
weak cold air advection to the forecast area. As temperatures
fall into the upper 20s to mid 30s throughout the night, any
areas that started seeing rain this afternoon/evening will
likely switch over to all snow. Snow is expected to favor
summits due to fast flow and higher snow ratios (13-15 to 1).
However, western and northwestern slopes could also receive
moderate snowfall rates where snow growth zones saturate and
temperatures cool.
Some snow may linger into tomorrow morning in the mountains,
but high pressure will build in from the Southeast U.S. to end
precipitation by the afternoon. Additional snowfall amounts
tonight and tomorrow morning are expected to be anywhere from a
trace in the low, wide valleys to 3-5 inches on summits. Morning
commuters should use caution, especially if driving through the
mountains, but in general, impacts are anticipated to be
minimal. Overall, tomorrow should be seasonable and mostly quiet
with highs in the mid 30s to mid 40s and gradually decreasing
clouds. Monday night will be calm and quiet as well with high
pressure shifting northeast into the Atlantic. Northern New York
and Vermont can expect increasing clouds ahead of our next
system. Temperatures overnight will be slightly mild for this
time of year with lows in the 20s and lower 30s as winds shift
out of the south.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 125 PM EST Sunday...Tuesday will feature thick cloud
cover and increasing chances of precipitation throughout the day
associated with an approaching shortwave. Warm air advection
will continue to flow in during the day with winds out of the
south, boosting temperatures into the mid and upper 40s by
Tuesday afternoon. However, some pockets in the Northeast
Kingdom and higher elevation spots in the Adirondacks and Greens
could hold onto temperatures at or below freezing for much of
the day. Most likely precipitation will hold off until at least
Tuesday evening, spreading from southwest to northeast when the
shortwave arrives. This shortwave is also expected to bring with
it a warm frontal boundary and therefore additional milder air.
Tuesday night will also be fairly mild with lows in the 30s,
about 5-15 degrees above seasonal normals, except for the
previously mentioned cold pockets. Precipitation is most likely
to be rain with some mixed precip possible at highest elevations
of the Adirondacks and Greens as well as areas of the Northeast
Kingdom. Rainfall amounts of up to 0.05-0.15" are expected with
highest amounts in southern Vermont. Ice amounts will be
localized glaze to a couple hundredths of an inch.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 125 PM EST Sunday...Strong consensus for unsettled
weather by mid to late week exists as a slow moving upper low
slides eastward just north of the International Border. A cold
front with good synoptic forcing aligned with the left exit
region of a 250mb jet streak lifts north through the region
Wednesday into Wednesday night. Low level moisture ahead of the
cold front should remain in place with mostly cloudy skies, and
potentially some terrain driven drizzle during the day Wednesday
before the bulk of the boundaries precipitation arrives
overnight. Temperatures will be 10 degrees above normal with
values in the mid to upper 40s, with a chance to push 50 in
southern Vermont and in the Champlain Valley. Widespread valley
rain and Adirondack snow will overspread Wednesday night into
Thanksgiving morning. Negative tilting of the upper low by late
Wednesday night will bring good moisture transport into northern
New York with precipitation amounts between 0.25" to 0.5" with
some snow accumulations in the northern Adirondacks and southern
St. Lawrence County as temperatures fall behind the front.
Thanksgiving morning will see brief drying outside of northern
New York. Lapse rates will steepen in the morning between
shortwaves as the upper low continues to occlude along the
Quebec eastern Ontario border. Breezy southwesterly flow will
drive winds up to 15-25 mph with some stronger gusts to 30-35
mph during the day on Thanksgiving. Associated with the strong
winds and steepening lapse rates, there is good agreement that a
lake effect band off Ontario will set up southwest to northeast
into portions of southern St. Lawrence and southern Essex and
Franklin Counties in New York on Thanksgiving. Temperatures
should be conducive for accumulating snow under the band. Across
Vermont, some flurries and mainly cloudy skies are anticipated.
Not expecting any major travel impacts, especially in Vermont,
with temperatures generally in the 30s to lower 40s for the bulk
of the daylight hrs on Thanksgiving, but we continue to ask
that you please follow the latest forecasts, especially if you
have any travel plans during this period. Some localized travel
impacts are likely in the higher elevations and across southern
St. Lawrence County due to lake enhanced snow shower activity.
More widespread snow shower activity and breezy winds will
resume Friday morning as a final shortwave from the upper low
translates eastward. Showers should be mainly confined to the
western facing slopes of the higher terrain, but some flurries
in the deeper valleys cannot be ruled out. The flow pattern will
also shift the lake effect band off Ontario to our south by
Friday morning leading to chilly northwest air. Temperatures for
Friday will fall into the upper 20s to low 30s. High pressure
will bring an end to snow showers by late Friday into the
weekend with continued cold conditions.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Through 00Z Tuesday...Changeable conditions will persist
through the evening as areas of snow and rain showers pass
through the region. Snow showers will persist for the next 6
hours. Accumulations will be light with surface temperatures
rising to just above freezing. Temperatures will remain above
freezing overnight with little chance at any flash freeze.
Passing showers have reduced visibilities to 1-2SM with as low
as 1/2SM at times at SLK/BTV/MSS. Blocked flow against the
Greens has contributed to IFR/LIFR conditions at BTV as froude
numbers are 0.2. Both vsby and Cig forecasts are challenging
with the blocked flow and uncertainty under any passing showers.
Vsbys between 1/2SM to 3SM will be possible with prevailing
MVFR/IFR vsbys in general. Cigs are also very changeable and
challenging. Ceilings have begun to lower with heavier showers.
Models show persisting IFR cigs to 500- 1000ft agl with the
onset of more moderate snow showers. Models at SLK/BTV/MSS show
the possibility of even LIFR ceilings tonight. Ceilings should
stay down once they fall through the overnight and do not
improve until late tomorrow morning at the earliest. Showers
will become more confined to the terrain, particularly SLK,
overnight, with precipitation tapering off for most terminals,
but with lower ceilings persisting. Winds will be light only
4-9kts from the south at BTV/PBG, and generally shifting
northwest overnight.
Outlook...
Monday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday: VFR. Chance RA.
Tuesday Night: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. Chance RA.
Wednesday: Mainly IFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance RA.
Wednesday Night: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. Definite RA,
Chance SN.
Thanksgiving Day: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance
SHRA, Chance SHSN.
Thursday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance
SHSN.
Friday: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. Chance SHSN.
&&
.EQUIPMENT...
NOAA Weather Radio station WXM-44, transmitting from Mt.
Ascutney, Vermont, on frequency 162.475 MHz is non-operational
at this time. NWS technicians have diagnosed the problem, but
repairs will likely not be able to occur for quite some time due
to circumstances beyond our control. Therefore, the time of
return to service is currently unknown. The following NOAA
Weather Radio transmitters may be able to provide service during
this outage: WWG 50 from Burke Mtn, VT at 162.425 MHz and WNG
546 from Hanover, NH at 162.525 MHz.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Storm
NEAR TERM...Neiles/Storm
SHORT TERM...Storm
LONG TERM...Danzig
AVIATION...Danzig/Neiles
EQUIPMENT...Team BTV
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