716
FXUS61 KBTV 070502
AFDBTV
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
1202 AM EST Fri Nov 7 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
A low pressure system will track from the Great Lakes then
north of our region through Saturday. Winds will be breezy out
of the south today ahead of the frontal boundary which crosses
the area this afternoon and tonight. Rain will spread into the
region from west to east this afternoon, and become more showery
tonight into Saturday. Following the front, unsettled weather
will continue through the weekend into next week, accompanied by
seasonably cool temperatures.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 1155 PM EST Thursday...This morning will feature quiet
weather, but with increasing clouds from the west ahead of
approaching frontal system. Do have just a slight chance for
showers mentioned during the morning as a surface trough extends
out ahead of the system. Precipitation will reach northern New
York by about 1 PM, then spread across Vermont by 7 PM. Ahead of
the front, our area will be under strong southerly flow and
winds will be gusty especially in the channeled valleys. 850 mb
jet will reach about 60 kts, which will translate to southerly
wind gusts around 30-40 kts in the Champlain valley and across
the higher terrain ahead of the precipitation. As the
precipitation moves into the area, winds will calm down a bit.
Early daytime high temperatures will reach the upper 40s to
lower 50s. Rainfall totals from this afternoon through Saturday
afternoon will range from just a few hundredths of an inch up to
around three tenths of an inch. Overnight lows will be a bit on
the milder side tonight with the showers ongoing as well as
cloud cover, generally in the 30s and 40s. Precipitation will
become more orographically influenced tonight and into Saturday
morning as the region will be under northwesterly flow. Drier
air will move into the area Saturday afternoon and precipitation
will come to an end. High temperatures on Saturday afternoon
will range from the mid 40s to upper 50s.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 1155 PM EST Thursday...Yet another system will approach
the area on Sunday after a quiet overnight period Saturday
night. This system will be a clipper, fast moving with light
precipitation once again. Winds will be gusty again as well, and
there will be a chance for some mixed precipitation depending
on how early the precipitation starts Saturday night/Sunday
morning. For now have rain or snow mentioned, but as we get
closer to Sunday morning, may have to add mention of freezing
rain, especially in the St Lawrence valley near Massena.
Overnight lows Saturday night will generally be in the 20s to
near freezing. Any snow or mixed precipitation will change over
to plain rain on Sunday though as temperatures warm into the
40s areawide, even the higher elevations.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 129 PM EST Thursday...Unsettled weather will continue
through much of next week, with a series of systems to bring
precipitation chances just about every day. An upper trough will
dig into the Midwest/Great Lakes Sunday and Monday, lifting a
surface low pressure system up to our west and eventually to our
north. A secondary low will develop as the primary lifts
northeastward, moving through southern New England and
eventually into ME. Precipitation associated with the preceding
warm front will spread into our region Sunday, on the nose of a
50+ kt 850mb jet. Cold air will be in place as warmer air moves
in aloft, so expect precipitation will start out as snow,
transitioning over to rain as the surface warms above freezing.
There may be a period of freezing rain during this transition,
especially in the St Lawrence Valley where northeast winds will
likely linger through at least the morning hours. The more
sheltered valleys east of the Greens could hold onto cold air at
the surface as well, though the expectation that this would be
brief. Trends will need to be monitored going ahead; freezing
rain may need to be added to the forecast if confidence
increases, particularly in the St Lawrence Valley. Otherwise,
expect all but the highest summits will warm enough to turn over
to plain rain by early Sunday afternoon.
A cold front will cross the region Sunday night into early
Monday as the primary low moves by to our north. This will
change rain back over to snow, and trending precipitation more
showery. The upper trough axis swings overhead late Monday, and
we`ll will remain under broad cyclonic flow on the backside of
the trough through the remainder of the period. Shortwave
troughs rotating around the trough will keep shower chances each
day, and with west/northwest flow dominating, would anticipate
the favored western slopes of the Adirondacks and Greens will be
the focus for showers. Overnight temperatures will be cold
enough that snow levels will drop to the valley floors, so even
the Champlain/St Lawrence/Connecticut Valleys will see a little
snow at times. Tuesday will the coldest day of the week with
highs only in the 30s to perhaps 40F, but overall expect snow
will be confined to the higher terrain during the daylight
hours.
&&
.AVIATION /04Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Through 00z Saturday...Mainly VFR conditions are expected for
the next 18-20 hours. Ceilings will remain 3000-5000 ft over the
next few hours before clouds scatter between 03-06z, and then
high clouds above 10000 ft shift east. West to northwest winds
are in the process of slowing. There are still a few reports
with speeds around 10 knots and gusts 15-18 knots, but will
quickly end with 3 to 8 knot winds trending variable or shifting
southerly. Wind speeds increase after 14z back to 7 to 13 knots
sustained with gusts up to 25 knots. Ceilings will gradually
lower as low-level dry air erodes. Anticipate some virga on
radar. Broader shower chances will begin to shift east of the
St. Lawrence Valley about 21-22z. For now, only have prevailing
rain and ceilings trending to 2500 ft agl at KMSS. Elsewhere,
PROB30s highlight uncertainty of when rain can start reaching
the ground. LLWS will develop as south to southwest winds at
2000 ft agl increase to 45-50 by 21-22z.
Outlook...
Friday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Definite
SHRA.
Saturday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance SHRA.
Saturday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight
chance SHRA, Slight chance SN, Slight chance SHSN.
Sunday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Definite RA.
Sunday Night: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Definite RA,
Likely SN.
Monday: Mainly IFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance SHRA, Chance
SHSN.
Monday Night: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. Chance SHSN.
Veterans Day: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance SHSN.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Neiles
NEAR TERM...Neiles
SHORT TERM...Neiles
LONG TERM...Hastings
AVIATION...Haynes
|
