797
FXUS61 KBTV 170450
AFDBTV
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
1250 AM EDT Wed Sep 17 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will continue to bring warming temperatures and
dry weather conditions to the region this week. A cold front
moving southeastward out of Canada will usher in a cooler air
mass for Friday and the upcoming weekend. However, measurable
precipitation is generally not expected with this cold front,
allowing drought conditions to persist across our region.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 214 PM EDT Tuesday...The prolonged stretch of dry weather
will continue across the region as surface high pressure and
upper level ridging continue to remain the dominant weather
feature, with just a few high clouds streaming into southern
portions of the forecast area. Another night with clear skies
and some radiational fog is expected with the high continuing to
crest overhead. With the lack of moisture, fog development is
not expected to be as widespread as the previous night, with the
best chances for fog east of the Green Mountains and along the
Connecticut River Valley. Low temperatures will once again drop
in the 40s and 50s.
Tomorrow will feature nearly identical weather to today, with
seasonably warm temperatures in the 70s to lower 80s. Some high
and mid level cloud cover associated with a decaying coastal low
in the Mid-Atlantic will gradually overspread the region
tomorrow,however dry weather will continue to persist. Overnight
lows will be milder compared to the last few nights, with
temperatures in the mid 40s to upper 50s expected, with almost
60 expected near Lake Champlain.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT/...
As of 214 PM EDT Tuesday...High pressure will begin to break
down Thursday, with southerly flow across the region bringing
another day of warmer temperatures. High will climb into the
upper 70s across the area, with lower 80s expected in the
broader valleys. A weak cold front will approach the region
Thursday night, with little to no moisture associated with it.
Some slight chances for showers will be possible, but any
precipitation actually reaching the surface will be nonexistent
or negligible, with drought conditions persisting across the
region. Temperatures overnight will generally drop into the 40s
and low 50s areawide.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 158 PM EDT Tuesday...Post frontal cold air advection is
favored to maximize early Friday with northerly flow and gusts
15 to 25 mph. Strongest gusts will be in the Champlain Valley
and on ridges. While there will be marginal fire weather
concerns in very localized spots given ongoing drought, there
are still leaves on trees tempering any stronger concerns at
this time. Widespread frost will be possible outside of the
Champlain Valley Friday night/Saturday morning as winds decrease
with high pressure centering overhead again. Model output
statistical guidance continues to point to lows around freezing
for the Adirondacks and portions of northeastern Vermont with
mid 30s for most locations and upper 30s to low 40s in the
Champlain Valley. There are some indications that the pattern
could begin to shift early next week, but will refrain from
getting too hopeful for meaningful rainfall. A system could drag
along the northern edge of the ridge bringing some showers as
early as Monday. It remains to be see, however, if the ridge
will hold stronger and shunt these chances more northward.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Through 06Z Thursday...The aviation challenge continues to be
associated with fog potential this morning. Current GOES-19 IR
satl imagery shows mid/upper lvl clouds spreading into central
VT, while current obs show a 3 to 5 degree spread between
temps/dwpts. Also hindering fog development is a progged 10 to
15 knot south/southwest wind at 200 to 400 feet agl. So based on
these observations have just utilized tempo for IFR fog at
SLK/MPV btwn roughly 08z/09z to 11z/12z with MVFR br at EFK/MSS
for a couple hours near sunrise. Otherwise, any shallow ground
fog will lift by 12z with vfr conditions prevailing at all sites
with south winds developing at 3 to 6 knots.
Outlook...
Wednesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Thursday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Thursday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Slight
chance SHRA.
Friday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. NO SIG WX.
Friday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Saturday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Saturday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Sunday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Kremer
NEAR TERM...Kremer
SHORT TERM...Kremer
LONG TERM...Boyd
AVIATION...Taber
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