581
FXUS61 KBTV 141845
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
145 PM EST Sat Feb 14 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
As of 145 PM EST Saturday...

The warmup for Monday and Tuesday has dampened slightly and chances
for light snow Monday night into Tuesday morning have increased.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
As of 145 PM EST Saturday...

1. A brief shot of colder air will follow today`s snow showers
as a cold front passes this evening.

2. Additional rounds of very light snow could impact the Monday
and Tuesday morning commutes, although snowfall rates and
relatively mild temperatures will limit accumulations.

3. The weather pattern looks to stay active for mid to late
next week with multiple chances for snow, rain, or even a wintry
mix.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
As of 145 PM EST Saturday...

KEY MESSAGE 1: A thermally strong and moisture-starved cold front
remains on track to push southward through northern New York and
Vermont tonight. Snow showers we have seen today associated with a
subtle pre-frontal trough will diminish into the evening as a wedge
of drier air between the cold front and this trough scours out some
of the marginally deeper moisture in place. We are seeing satellite
imagery consistent with this dry punch as some breaks in the clouds
are evident this afternoon near the International Border in New
York. However, model guidance continues to show enough lingering
moisture to squeeze out some terrain-driven snow showers along the
cold front tonight, with a somewhat north to south progression of
increased coverage of light snow redeveloping. This precipitation
will not only be light but largely short-lived as northerly flow
behind the boundary should quickly scour out clouds, aside from in
the mountains where appreciable accumulation will likely reside
exclusively. This shallow front will lead to a period of inverted
temperatures; valley temperatures, having tumbled into the
single digits above zero in most spots, will be relatively slow
to warm compared to the mountains tomorrow. A lobe of
seasonably cold 850 millibar temperatures correlating to summit
conditions will be quick to depart to the east. As such, have
adjusted both winds and temperatures in the high elevations to
show these fluctuations tonight into tomorrow. So while warm
air advection aloft along with plentiful sunshine will occur
through the day with ridging quickly moving in, near surface,
terrain-driven north/northeasterly flow will hold temperatures
sub-freezing in most locations, save a few lower elevation
spots in southern portions of Vermont and northern New York.

KEY MESSAGE 2: Following the light snow today and tonight, two more
minor weather systems will roll through the region roughly 24 hours
apart. As we have seen many times this winter, even minor snowfall
that is poorly timed can cause travel issues, so we`ll
highlight these two potential light precipitation events here.

On the leading edge of a warmer air mass, some light snow will
spread eastward out of southern Ontario Sunday night associated
with a decaying wave and inverted trough. As noted by the
previous forecaster, this snow will likely shrivel up as
precipitation expands into Vermont, especially east of the Green
Mountains. The precipitation pattern will probably be related
to a continued northward shift of a coastal storm tied to the
same upper level wave and the flow between this system and high
pressure over the Canadian maritimes, maintaining dry low level
air to offset the mid-level moisture flux. As such, little snow
is expected for our area, especially in Vermont. Some of the
latest reliable model guidance indicates no snowfall at all in
Vermont, with only up to an inch in the Adirondack region and
little or none elsewhere in New York. For now, with low chances
for snowfall, have stuck to a forecast blend showing spotty
coatings with trace amounts of snow generally favored. The
latest REFS shows earliest onset of snow after 10 PM, with
highest chances of accumulations between about 1 AM and 5 AM,
again primarily in northern New York. About a 20-30% chance of
measurable snowfall still extends into western portions of
central Vermont (roughly from southern Chittenden County through
Rutland County), although these chances of trended downward.
Given this timing and antecedent cold air, some morning commutes
may be slick.

In contrast, the next second system for Monday night, has trended
more notable for both northern New York and Vermont, but
temperatures will be less cold following a milder day on Monday.
A small shortwave is progged to track right overhead out ahead
of a a weak trough. As such, there should be ample low level
moisture and lift to produce widespread, albeit light, snow. The
12Z guidance has been more aggressive the blend of models so
have only modestly increased PoPs at this time, but if trends
continue PoPs will need to be bumped up above 50% in most if not
all of our region. As for potential impacts, precipitation
rates would be light enough such that many marginally cold,
lower elevation roads may just be wet. In fact, precipitation
type may be in isolated pockets a cold rain, with a rain-snow
mix currently indicated in the lowest elevations in the northern
Champlain Valley and St. Lawrence Valley. However, any predawn
wet snowfall, especially where air temperatures dip back below
freezing prior to onset of snow, will more easily accumulate. At
this time, the greater potential for snow covered roads for
morning commute time on Tuesday appears in the Adirondacks. As
we move into the timeframe with higher resolution model
guidance, the timing and potential for light accumulation will
be better fine tuned over the next few forecast cycles.

KEY MESSAGE 3: A frontal boundary will stall somewhere near or south of
our forecast area through the latter half of next week, while high
pressure tries to nose southward from Canada. A series of low
pressure systems will ride along the front, bringing rounds of
showers along with them. There remains considerable uncertainty as
to where the front will be, and how far south the cold air is able
to infiltrate. Meanwhile, warm air will lift up over the cold air,
increasing chances for wintry mixed precipitation along/just north
of the front, trending towards all snow as one goes north, and more
rain as one heads south. Note that the deterministic 12z GFS and CMC
both have shifted further south with the frontal boundary for the
late Wed-Thu storm system, far enough that much of our area would
see little to no precipitation at all, with maybe just
Rutland/Windsor Counties getting snow with a bit of rain and/or
freezing rain mixed in. However, several of the GEFS/GEPS ensemble
members are further north (as is the deterministic 00z ECMWF),
bringing widespread snow to much of the area, with some wintry mix
possible in southern sections. Another system looks to affect the
area toward the weekend, but again, lots of model spread on where
the low (or lows) will track and what sort (if any) precipitation
will occur across VT and northern NY. So long story short: stay
tuned as hopefully trends will become more clear heading forward.
There remains the potential for an impactful system at some point
next week (especially if we see any wintry mix), but way too much
model spread at this point to say anything definitive.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Through 18Z Sunday...MVFR conditions will prevail through at least
00z Sun with ceilings generally 1500-2500 ft during that time frame.
The exception is KSLK, which will remain IFR through at least 22z
today. There are some indications that it could hold onto those IFR
ceilings well into the overnight period, but confidence is not high
enough at this point, so have shown a gradual improvement through
MVFR until 09z. Otherwise, expect all other terminals to be VFR with
clouds lifting and decreasing in coverage by 04z. Light snow
showers/flurries will also gradually wind down through this
afternoon into the evening. Visibility should be 4-6SM in snow,
ending at all locations by 00z Sun. Winds south/southwest 4-8 kt
through this evening, then trending light north/northwest overnight
into Sunday morning.

Outlook...

Sunday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SN.
Washingtons Birthday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. NO
SIG WX.
Monday Night: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Slight chance
SHSN.
Tuesday: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Slight chance
SHRA.
Tuesday Night: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Chance SN, Chance
RA.
Wednesday Night: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Chance SN.
Thursday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Slight chance SN.

&&

.CLIMATE...
As of 145 PM EST Saturday... In Burlington, the last day with a
temperature breaking 32 degrees was January 22nd. As of this
writing, the temperature today has reached 30, and may touch 32
this afternoon. If this happens it would end a streak at 22 days
in a row. Sub-freezing temperature streaks this long are fairly
unusual in the Burlington area, last happening January-February
2015.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
NOAA Weather Radio station WXM-44, transmitting from Mt.
Ascutney, Vermont, on frequency 162.475 MHz is non- operational
at this time. NWS technicians have diagnosed the problem, but
repairs will likely not be able to occur for quite some time due
to circumstances beyond our control. Therefore, the time of
return to service is currently unknown. The following NOAA
Weather Radio transmitters may be able to provide service during
this outage: WWG 50 from Burke Mtn, VT at 162.425 MHz and WNG
546 from Hanover, NH at 162.525 MHz.

The Colchester Reef meteorological station is out of service.
This site is not serviced by the NWS and there isn`t an
estimated return to service at present. Please contact us if you
observe winds significantly deviating from the recreational
forecast.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$

WHAT HAS CHANGED...Kutikoff
DISCUSSION...Kutikoff/Hastings
AVIATION...Hastings
CLIMATE...NWS BTV
EQUIPMENT...NWS BTV