028
FXUS61 KBTV 020511
AFDBTV
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
1211 AM EST Fri Jan 2 2026
.SYNOPSIS...
Brisk conditions will continue into the overnight hours with
cold apparent temperatures below zero degrees for most locations
tonight. A few showers will continue mainly for upslope areas
over the next few days with a weak system moving through this
weekend bringing some light snow accumulations. Unseasonably
cool temperatures are expected to trend back towards seasonal
averages by the middle of next week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 659 PM EST Thursday...Updated forecast to lower
temperatures slightly for tonight blending some of the colder
available guidance together. Previous discussion follows.
Main forecast concern will be continued cold conditions with
frigid apparent temperatures below zero for most locations
during the overnight hours tonight. Some spots in the Champlain
Valley will feel like -10F tonight while higher elevations will
feel colder than -30F. Some slight warming is favored with
winds generally decreasing tomorrow for lower elevations; gusts
will keep frigid wind chills ongoing lower than - 10F for higher
elevations. Otherwise, broad cyclonic flow aloft will support a
few isolated snow showers mainly along terrain. High
temperatures tomorrow will be cold again mainly in the teens
with some low 20s for southern Vermont.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT/...
As of 143 PM EST Thursday...A shortwave trough will approach
Saturday/Saturday night bringing some snow/snow showers to
northern New York and Vermont. Current timing of the wave
supports best chances overnight into early Sunday. However, this
wave is projected to be quite weak and quick-moving across all
models pointing to only token amounts of snow, generally less
than one inch being favored. Temperatures will remain colder
than average with highs likely only in the teens and overnight
lows in the single digits around zero.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 143 PM EST Thursday...
* Bitterly cold Sunday night - Monday morning with temperatures
and wind chills dropping back below zero.
* Becoming much milder on Tuesday, with a thaw likely beginning
by Wednesday.
Another trough and weaker variety cold front will move through
the region on Sunday. Have noted PoPs might be a little low
given favorable thermal profiles for snow production even with
meager moisture, especially with terrain influences/upslope
flow. So aside for the Upper Valley, I think at some intervals
during the day on Sunday we could see flurries and snow showers
just about anywhere. Otherwise, the main story will be another
round of cold weather, which will be modulated by any fresh snow
cover that would help temperatures fall even further overnight.
While chances are low that any locations meet Cold Weather
Advisory threshold, another round of temperatures well below
zero in most locations could be impactful, especially with any
light wind producing even lower feels-like temperatures. NBM
probabilities support lower temperatures than what the
deterministic guidance would indicate, so given potentially a
good radiational cooling scenario, would prepare for low
temperatures between about -10 and -19 as a reasonable "worst"
case scenario.
Prior to a well-anticipated thaw, we could see one more light
snowfall Monday night into Tuesday associated with thermal
advection and a weak wave of low pressure. With lack of strong
forcing mechanism indicated at this time, probabilities of just
an inch of new snow are roughly the same as precipitation
chances, which are fairly terrain influenced and in the 25-50%
range.
Then there is good model agreement on a storm track shifting
back to our west while ridging establishes itself near Bermuda,
leading to milder air being drawn into the northeastern US
pretty quickly. Snow levels by Wednesday currently appear to be
approach summit level, peaking around 3000-3500 feet, as
precipitation becomes likely associated with a period of rich
moisture and broad lift. There could be a period of mixed
precipitation in some areas at the start Wednesday given the
cold air mass being eroded, but the potential is relatively
low/insignificant compared to the recent ice storm. Without a
strong jet stream, it still doesn`t look like a particularly
noteworthy/impactful storm. However, in the context of the
persistent cold, we will obviously thaw out a bit. As we are in
January, despite the pattern change it looks like there will be
enough cold air around such that behind the midweek rain,
temperatures in the higher terrain should still support chances
for snow while valleys continue to have some freeze/thaw cycles.
&&
.AVIATION /05Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Through 06Z Saturday...Current radar is showing light snow
shower activity developing across the southern SLV into parts of
the Adirondacks with vis down to 4SM at OGS. Expect light snow
with prevailing vis btwn 3-5SM at SLK with intervals of IFR vis
in the 1.5 to 2.5SM range between 07z-11z this morning. Also, a
few snow showers with intervals of MVFR vis/cigs are possible at
MPV/EFK and MSS, while VFR conditions prevail at PBG/BTV and
RUT. Winds are light and variable this morning, but shift to the
west/northwest at 3 to 7 knots on Friday, behind a weak sfc
trough.
Outlook...
Saturday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Saturday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHSN.
Sunday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. NO SIG WX.
Sunday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Monday: VFR. Chance SHSN.
Monday Night: MVFR. Chance SHSN.
Tuesday: MVFR. Slight chance SHSN.
&&
.EQUIPMENT...
NOAA Weather Radio station WXM-44, transmitting from Mt.
Ascutney, Vermont, on frequency 162.475 MHz is non-operational
at this time. NWS technicians have diagnosed the problem, but
repairs will likely not be able to occur for quite some time due
to circumstances beyond our control. Therefore, the time of
return to service is currently unknown. The following NOAA
Weather Radio transmitters may be able to provide service during
this outage: WWG 50 from Burke Mtn, VT at 162.425 MHz and WNG
546 from Hanover, NH at 162.525 MHz.
The Colchester Reef meteorological station is out of service.
This site is not serviced by the NWS and there isn`t an
estimated return to service at present. Use extra caution when
navigating the broad waters of Lake Champlain. Please contact us
if you observe winds significantly deviating from the
recreational forecast.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Boyd
NEAR TERM...Boyd/Neiles
SHORT TERM...Boyd
LONG TERM...Kutikoff
AVIATION...Taber
EQUIPMENT...Team BTV
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