917
FXUS61 KBTV 212323
AFDBTV
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
723 PM EDT Tue Apr 21 2026
.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
As of 235 AM EDT Tuesday...
No significant changes but the weekend is trending drier.
&&
.KEY MESSAGES...
As of 235 AM EDT Tuesday...
1. Mostly dry and below seasonal average temperatures through
Friday with a couple chances for light precipitation and very
dry afternoons Thursday and Friday.
2. Trending drier for the weekend and early next week with near
normal temperatures.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
As of 222 PM EDT Tuesday...
KEY MESSAGE 1: Aside from some low end shower chances tonight
and some chances in northeastern Vermont Thursday with a passing
backdoor front, conditions will remain dry. Locations that do
receive rainfall will mainly see less than 0.05". Otherwise,
notably dry conditions this afternoon with moderate with cloud
cover and increasing dew points tonight. Then the long wave
pattern is favored to become pinched enough aloft to allow for
two backdoor fronts to move through, one on Thursday and again
on Friday. These fronts will be mainly dry, especially west of
the Greens. Northerly gusts 15 to 25 mph are favored both
afternoons with RH in the Champlain/St Lawrence valleys
approaching 30%. Some very isolated critical conditions for fire
weather may occur. Temperatures will remain slightly below
seasonal averages through Friday before warming back to average
by Saturday. Highs will generally be in the 40s and low 50s
through Friday and back into the mid/upper 50s to low 60s for
Saturday.
KEY MESSAGE 2: A relatively quiet stretch of weather is expected to
continue heading into the weekend and the beginning of next week.
While a few showers may be possible, high pressure overhead will
keep most precipitation chances to our south across southern New
England and the Mid-Atlantic. Relative dry weather is expected to
continue through the beginning of next week, with more widespread
precipitation chances not arriving until Tuesday night or Wednesday
at this time, which may be even later depending on how quickly
ridging across the region breaks down. Temperatures will generally
be near seasonable normals for late April, with daytime highs in the
upper 50s to mid 60s and overnight lows in the 30s to mid 40s.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Through 00Z Thursday...VFR conditions continue to prevail across the
region this evening under increasing mid/high clouds. Ceilings
will continue to lower overnight, with most terminals expected
to see a period of MVFR ceilings after 10Z or and so,
continuing through the remainder of the forecast period. A few
showers may be possible later tonight into Wednesday morning,
particularly at KRUT, where a PROB30 group has been included
10z-12z. Elsewhere, confidence for shower development is low,
and either way, ceilings will have the greater impact on
aviation. There are some indications that ceilings at KRUT could
drop below 1000 ft, but probability of this is low and so have
kept ceilings MVFR. Winds S/SW through the period, except SE at
KRUT. They will generally remain AOB 10 kt through the TAF
period.
Outlook...
Wednesday Night: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Slight
chance SHRA.
Thursday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. NO SIG WX.
Thursday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Friday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Friday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Saturday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Saturday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Sunday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.
&&
$$
WHAT HAS CHANGED...Boyd
DISCUSSION...Boyd/Kremer
AVIATION...Hastings
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