899
FXUS61 KBTV 011820
AFDBTV
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
120 PM EST Sun Feb 1 2026
.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
As of 115 PM EST Sunday...
A persistent north/south oriented lake enhanced band has
brought a couple inches of snow as far south as Bridport. This
feature will slowly wind down as the afternoon goes on. Mountain PoPs
have increased slightly for Wednesday and Thursday associated
with a closed low passing to our north.
&&
.KEY MESSAGES...
As of 115 PM EST Sunday...
1. Temperatures continue below normal with no widespread
precipitation over the next few days.
2. Wednesday through Sunday will feature several chances for
snow showers as our region remains under influence of upper level
troughing, then very cold conditions return to the region this
weekend.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
As of 115 PM EST Sunday...
KEY MESSAGE 1: The lake cloud that developed yesterday has lingered
throughout the day Sunday. Bringing accumulating snow in the
vicinity of Lake Champlain from Burton Island down through Bridport.
We`ve received localized reports of a couple inches associated with
this event. PoPs will start to drop this afternoon as the winds
start to wane.
A persistent longwave trough remains the dominant
feature through Tuesday. While daytime temperatures warm slightly
Monday and Tuesday, the forecast still calls for below normal
temperatures. Sunday night will once again bring temperatures
near 0F. As the nor`easter moves further off shore surface high
pressure will build back in. The associated subsidence inversion
will allow daytime temperatures to reach into the teens and
twenties Monday and Tuesday while suppressing any precipitation.
A shortwave approaches from the west on Tuesday, bringing
slight chance Pops into the Saint Lawrence Valley.
KEY MESSAGE 2: Upper level closed low is expected to swing through the
region on Wednesday, just north of the international border, moving
generally eastward. It`s possible for some snow showers to develop
that morning, mainly in higher terrain and upslope areas. There
should also be a bit of cold air advection in west to northwest flow
associated with low level surface low pressure rotating to our north
and east. This will result in highs only in the upper teens and 20s
for most. Thursday, current determinstic guidance contains varying
solutions, but the main elements are that some cold air advection
should be present in west to northwest flow, dry air dominates, and
forcing is primarily aloft with no strong surface feature. Some
solutions show only show some weak shortwave energy during this
time, but the GFS in particular has a much deeper, closed low. The
determinstic models also vary in the depth of cold air moving in. At
the moment, it looks like any snow showers produced Thursday will be
light, kept mostly in the mountains, and widely scattered due to the
influx of dry air and potential lack of forcing.
Friday and Friday night, widespread snow showers associated with a
third upper disturbance are likely, though models continue to shift
the timing of this clipper system from run to run. The deterministic
GFS is again more aggressive with the strength of a closed upper low
pressure diving through New England, but on the ECMWF it would be a
weak shortwave followed by a deeper, narrow axis of troughing as
closed upper low stays well to our north. GFS also shows stronger
and more well-defined surface low pressure moving through or just to
the north of northern New York and Vermont while ECMWF dives primary
surface low pressure across the Ohio Valley instead. Meanwhile,
ensembles show a wide range of low tracks. One thing the
determinstic and ensemble models agree on, however, is the influx of
cold air following the system for the weekend. Projections of 850mb
temperatures are as low as -32 to -25 C. Current forecast for
surface temperatures is 5 to 15 degrees below zero at night and wind
chills even lower.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Through 18Z Monday...A few snow showers will linger this afternoon,
then drier conditions will prevail tonight and Monday as surface
high pressure drifts eastward towards northern New York and Vermont.
There potential for low clouds and mist or freezing fog tonight into
tomorrow morning. Currently, clouds are thinning across the region,
resulting in clouds at 1100-2600 feet above ground level bouncing
between SCT and BKN but gradually leaning towards SCT and FEW as
well as rising in altitude this afternoon. SLK and EFK can expect to
see clouds return this evening and tonight starting around 02Z-08Z
Monday with cigs around 1500-3000 feet and a potential SCT layer
around 400-1000 feet at SLK (possible at EFK but lower confidence)
through about 12Z-14Z Monday. Elsewhere, VFR ceilings expected
through 18Z Monday. Snow showers are possible in the Champlain
Valley (30% chance at BTV and PBG) through around 20Z Sunday, then
the remainder of the next 24 hours snow showers are not expected.
There will also continue to be occasional wind gusts out of the
north in the Champlain Valley as well as across parts of central
Vermont (including MPV) of 15-25 knots through about 20Z Sunday,
then winds overall see a decrease in intensity across the region,
becoming light and variable or calm. Around 03Z through 14Z Monday,
there is the potential for saturation of the lower levels of the
atmosphere as temperatures fall towards relatively elevated
crossover temperatures under clearing skies. At the moment, the most
likely locations for some mist or even freezing fog are BTV, SLK,
MPV, and EFK. SLK seems to have the highest probability of mist in
general, including IFR conditions, as it is likely to have some kind
of cloud layer at the 400-700 foot level that may sink lower under
subsidence inversion and reach the surface at times. EFK also has
some good model consensus on low level moisture and may act
similarly. Outside of these two sites, though, model consensus is
poor at the moment and it is unclear exactly how much saturation can
take place and how low clouds can get.
Outlook...
Monday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight chance
SHSN.
Wednesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Thursday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. NO SIG WX.
Thursday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Friday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SN.
&&
.EQUIPMENT...
NOAA Weather Radio station WXM-44, transmitting from Mt.
Ascutney, Vermont, on frequency 162.475 MHz is non- operational
at this time. NWS technicians have diagnosed the problem, but
repairs will likely not be able to occur for quite some time due
to circumstances beyond our control. Therefore, the time of
return to service is currently unknown. The following NOAA
Weather Radio transmitters may be able to provide service during
this outage: WWG 50 from Burke Mtn, VT at 162.425 MHz and WNG
546 from Hanover, NH at 162.525 MHz.
The Colchester Reef meteorological station is out of service.
This site is not serviced by the NWS and there isn`t an
estimated return to service at present. Use extra caution when
navigating the broad waters of Lake Champlain. Please contact us
if you observe winds significantly deviating from the
recreational forecast.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.
&&
$$
WHAT HAS CHANGED...Langbauer
DISCUSSION...Langbauer/Storm
AVIATION...Storm
EQUIPMENT...NWS BTV
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