901
FXUS61 KBTV 151732
AFDBTV
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
1232 PM EST Mon Dec 15 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
Upslope snow showers will continue into the morning, before
more widespread light snowfall occurs later in the day and into
tonight. A warming trend will begin Tuesday, and temperatures
will be above freezing for most areas on Wednesday and Thursday.
A stronger system looks to bring rain Thursday night, though
some back end snowfall is still possible.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 132 AM EST Monday...Upslope snow showers have begun to
develop in the northern Greens, and they will continue on and
off into the morning. Atmospheric temperature profiles should be
a little colder during the event than had been forecast last
night. This puts them right below the DGZ and it may be just too
cold for dendrites, especially early in the night. This is
supported by the fine flakes at BTV that have been falling so
far this evening. Heading into the morning, temperatures look to
warm slightly and enough lake influence could warm them just
enough to favor some dendrites. The next issue is that moisture
has been a bit lacking, with the snow gradually diminishing in
the last couple hours. Moisture should overall increase in the
later part of the night so the snow should fill back in.
Overall, an inch or two of snow still looks likely along the
western slopes, but if the moisture stays lackluster, that will
bring down snow totals. The lack of dendritic growth could also
hinder the snow amounts if it continues. The snow exits the
region in the morning and the rest of today should be mostly
dry. Moisture tracks back into the region off Lake Ontario later
in the day, entering St. Lawrence County in the afternoon. The
moisture will cause some lake effect snow to develop. The lake
effect will be helped by increasing southwest flow. However, the
flow will quickly return to being more westerly and
northwesterly later in the night, indicating a quick exit back
to the south. Overall, the expected snowfall totals will be
quite low, with only up to around an inch or two for the most
favored areas. Elsewhere, a few light snow showers may be
possible, but totals would be even lower. Strong warm air
advection will begin quickly on Tuesday, though temperatures
will stay below freezing.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 132 AM EST Monday...Warm air advection continues Tuesday
night into Wednesday, and temperatures will rise above freezing
for most areas. This would be the first time all month Saranac
Lake rises above freezing. Temperatures may be non-diurnal or at
least mostly steady Tuesday night as winds and the advection
will keep the boundary layer mixed. A low level jet and somewhat
decent mixing on Wednesday will cause strong winds,
particularly in the Champlain Valley. There, gusts could be in
the 25 to 35 mph range. A few snow showers look to enter
northern New York in the afternoon associated with a cold front,
but it will unfortunately not be enough keep temperatures below
freezing for the rest of the week.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 132 AM EST Monday...Thursday will be warm with strong
gusty southerly winds ahead of next approaching low pressure
system. Warm air will reach our western zones by mid morning
Thursday and spread across our entire area, raising temperatures
above freezing areawide by about noon. Maximum temperatures
Thursday afternoon will range from the upper 30s to lower 40s.
An 850 mb jet will be as high as 60 kts over the area by
Thursday afternoon. Winds will be strongest in the Champlain
valley where channeling will enhance the wind speeds out of the
south. Will need to monitor for potential need of a wind
advisory. On Thursday night widespread rain will move into the
area, then eventually a strong surface cold front crosses the
area Friday during the day and rain will change over to snow
before ending Friday night. Temperatures will remain above
freezing Thursday night into Friday, but don`t think we`ll have
enough thawing degree hours to cause a lot of problems with ice
jam breakups. But, rainfall on top of snowmelt will be watched
carefully as we get closer to Thursday and Friday. Strong winds
will also follow this cold frontal passage with winds turning to
northwesterly. There is still plenty of uncertainty regarding
the exact timing and placement of the system, so continue to
monitor trends as we get closer. Beyond this late week system,
additional chances for snow showers will be possible for the
weekend, especially across the higher terrain.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Through 18Z Tuesday...Upslope and lake effect snow showers are
expected to be the main aviation hazard over the next 24 hours,
particularly at sites SLK and EFK. For SLK, it is a question of how
far a lake effect snow band reaches off Lake Ontario and for how
long it brings ceilings 2000-3000 feet above ground level and
visibilities below 6 miles at the site. Most likely time frame for
any potential IFR vis will be 00Z-04Z Tuesday. After this, winds are
expected to diminish enough to limit lake effect snow, though MVFR
ceilings will likely be stuck around SLK though at least 06Z,
perhaps continuing on and off through the entire 24 hour period.
For EFK, upslope snow showers are possible 00Z-06Z Tuesday with
similar timing to SLK in regards to MVFR ceilings, though lower
confidence in any prevailing MVFR ceilings. Rather, EFK looks to
have less frequent MVFR cigs on Tuesday, especially as clouds become
less widespread around 12Z-18Z. Gusty westerly winds, gusting 15-20
knots, may also impact EFK through about 23Z today. Outside of EFK
and SLK, chances remain low (below 30%) for any snow showers, though
MVFR ceilings 2500-3000 ft AGL may affect MPV and MSS on and off now
through 01Z Tuesday.
Northwesterly winds this afternoon may be gusty 15-20 knots in spots
across central and northern Vermont, but winds will quickly decrease
overall into the evening, falling below 10 knots and turning
southerly to southwesterly by 00Z Tuesday. Site with highest
confidence of a period of LLWS is SLK around 00Z-06Z Tuesday as
surface winds turn and decrease while winds aloft stay northwesterly
and breezy. Surface winds are expected to pick up slightly again
tomorrow afternoon, though generally remaining below 15 knots.
Outlook...
Tuesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance SHRA,
Chance SHSN.
Wednesday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. NO SIG WX.
Thursday: VFR. Windy with gusts to 30 kt. NO SIG WX.
Thursday Night: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. Windy with gusts to
30 kt. Definite RA.
Friday: Mainly MVFR, with areas IFR possible. Definite RA, Chance
SN.
Friday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight chance
SN.
Saturday: VFR. Chance SN.
&&
.EQUIPMENT...
NOAA Weather Radio station WXM-44, transmitting from Mt.
Ascutney, Vermont, on frequency 162.475 MHz is non-operational
at this time. NWS technicians have diagnosed the problem, but
repairs will likely not be able to occur for quite some time due
to circumstances beyond our control. Therefore, the time of
return to service is currently unknown. The following NOAA
Weather Radio transmitters may be able to provide service during
this outage: WWG 50 from Burke Mtn, VT at 162.425 MHz and WNG
546 from Hanover, NH at 162.525 MHz.
Equipment malfunctions at the Colchester Reef meteorological
station will likely leave it inoperable for an extended period
of time. This site is not serviced by the NWS. Technicians do
not currently have an estimated return to service for this
station. Use extra caution when navigating the broad waters of
Lake Champlain, and please contact us if you observe winds
significantly deviating from the forecast.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Myskowski
NEAR TERM...Myskowski
SHORT TERM...Myskowski
LONG TERM...Neiles
AVIATION...Storm
EQUIPMENT...Team BTV
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