739
FXUS61 KBTV 010652
AFDBTV
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
152 AM EST Sun Mar 1 2026
.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
As of 149 AM EST Sunday...
Unseasonably cold temperatures are expected today through
Monday. Widespread snow looking less likely for late Tuesday
into Tuesday night due to track of system shifting southward.
&&
.KEY MESSAGES...
As of 149 AM EST Sunday...
1. Cold start to March with well below normal temperatures
today and Monday. Light snow with minimal impacts through this
morning.
2. Light rain/snow expected late Tuesday and Tuesday night,
especially across southern sections of the forecast area.
3. Active weather with up to three rounds of precipitation
Wednesday night through the weekend. Precipitation type will likely
be mainly rain with some potential for freezing rain.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
As of 149 AM EST Sunday...
KEY MESSAGE 1: Although the cold front has pushed well to our south
early this morning, temperatures have been slow to fall. However,
expect northern areas will be in the lower/mid teens by daybreak,
with southern sections in the upper teens to around 20. Cold air
advection will persist through the day as winds stay out of the
north ahead of advancing high pressure. Light snow is already
starting to spread over northern NY in response to the upper trough
axis swinging overhead. This precipitation will shift
southeastward through the morning hours, focusing mostly from
the Adirondacks down into south central VT. Given the very dry
airmass and lack of substantial forcing, this morning`s snow
will remain very light, with most areas seeing little more than
flurries or perhaps a dusting of snow. Skies will begin to clear
this afternoon into the evening as the high builds into our
region. With the aforementioned cold air advection, anticipate
daytime highs will be in the teens and 20s, even with afternoon
sunshine. Actual 24-hr highs will likely have already occurred
just after midnight this morning.
The building high and clearing skies point toward optimal
radiational cooling conditions overnight tonight. Expect lows will
be below zero just about everywhere, with the Adirondacks and
Northeast Kingdom likely dropping into the negative teens. Though
winds will be relatively light, wind chills by Monday morning will
be in the -10F to -20F range areawide. Monday will likewise be cold,
though with plentiful sunshine. Highs will range from the mid teens
to the mid 20s. If you plan to be outdoors, please make sure to
bundle up and wear appropriate clothing, especially Monday morning.
KEY MESSAGE 2: Latest model suite has trended quite a ways south with
our next system. A nearly stationary frontal boundary will set up to
our south, with a wave of low pressure to ride along it, moving
across PA on Tuesday and then eventually somewhere along or just
south of LI and the southern New England coast. This will place
Vermont and northern NY on the northern periphery of the
precipitation. In particular, the NAM and CMC models show a very
sharp gradient, with the northern 2/3 of our region seeing little to
no precipitation. The GFS is a little more broadbrushed and further
north. Either way, precipitation would move in late Tuesday
afternoon and continue through Tuesday evening, then come to a quick
end by Wednesday morning as the low rapidly moves off the coast.
There will be warmer air attempting to spread northward ahead of the
low, but consensus at this time is that this will stay just to our
south, with precipitation type to be determined by surface
temperature as most of the column will be below freezing. With this
in mind, expect we`d see higher elevation snow with a rain/snow mix
in the wider valleys at the onset Tuesday afternoon given
temperatures in the low to mid 30s. This would turn to all snow
Tuesday night. With a fast forward progression and marginal
temperatures, overall QPF and snow amounts look fairly minimal at
this point. Central/southern VT and into the southern Adirondacks
could see a general 1 to 3 inches of snow, perhaps a bit more across
the highest summits. Further north, and in the wider valleys, mainly
anticipate 2 inches or less, with perhaps just a dusting along the
international border (or even nothing if the NAM/CMC hold true).
All that being said, there could be drastic changes if models change
course with the storm`s track. Confidence in the scenario stated
above is somewhat lower than normal until a few more model runs are
able to establish this more southward trend.
KEY MESSAGE 3: Late in the week it looks like temperatures aloft will
be consistently milder such that snow is rather unlikely regardless
of elevation with any precipitation. That being said, we`ll need to
watch for a cold air damming scenario on Friday as a strong polar
high pressure area slides into northern Maine/New Brunswick. While
we often stay away from mention of freezing rain this many days out,
think the signals are good enough to at least have some indication
in the forecast. At this point, the areas that would be most likely
to be sub-freezing at the surface in this pattern, such as across
the northern St. Lawrence Valley and pockets of eastern Vermont, are
given this rain and freezing rain weather type. Depending on the low
pressure track, a round of rain forced by a warm front also has some
potential to be in the form of freezing rain at the onset, which
could impact travel for the Thursday morning commute. Timing of this
precipitation is rather uncertain at this time, with large
differences among model clusters in the onset of precipitation
ranging from Wednesday night to Thursday afternoon.
The signals for a large thaw are fairly weak at this time despite
the warmth currently forecast for next weekend (high temperatures in
the 50s each day with lows in the 30s). There is a lot of
uncertainty in the longevity and magnitude of warm and humid air.
Model clusters are split pretty evenly, although the GEPS seems to
have a dominant warmer signal that taints the ensemble blend. If the
amplitude of the ridging was to trend more definitively larger as
shown in the Canadian model and its ensembles, the thawing degree
hours that are indicated by the latest temperature forecast (between
300 and 500 from Saturday morning through Sunday evening) would be
problematic for breakup ice jams. Given the potential impacts, it`s
something to keep an eye on, but at this time the risk is relatively
low. Related to the uncertainty in the temperatures, the storm track
and timing/amounts of rain over the weekend are also rather unclear
relative to the Thursday-Friday timeframe.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Through 06Z Monday...Mostly VFR ceilings through the period, with
skies trending clear towards 00Z. There is a lot of uncertainty with
regards to snow reaching the ground across all of our TAF sites this
morning as light precipitation falls out of a cloud deck around
10,000 feet. The latest thinking is that clouds lower between 09Z
and 11Z at most terminals with at least intermittent -SN, with
prevailing light snow more likely at SLK, MPV, and RUT where low
level air is slightly less dry. Low chance for IFR conditions, but
with snow character expected to be very dry, visibilities can be
reduced more than with a wetter snow, so would not be surprised to
see a period of 1-2 SM at these sites. As such, have indicated this
potential in a TEMPO group when chances are greatest. Chances of
snow quickly diminish by 16Z areawide. Generally expect north to
northwest winds 5 to 10 knots with gusts to 20 knots through 00Z
before finally slacking off. Early in the period somewhat stronger
10-15 knot with gusts to 25 knots are occurring at northern
terminals where low level lapse rates are a bit steeper. These
stronger winds should be intermittent and winds aloft are fairly
light, limiting potential for turbulence or LLWS near the ground.
Outlook...
Monday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Monday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday: VFR. Chance SN.
Tuesday Night: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Likely SN.
Wednesday: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday Night: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. Chance SN, Chance
RA.
Thursday: Mainly IFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance RA, Chance
SN.
&&
.EQUIPMENT...
The KBTV ASOS has suffered a communications failure. The issue
has been diagnosed, but there is currently no estimated time of
return to service. The affected communications line is not
serviced by the NWS. Terminal Aerodrome Forecasts will continue,
but regular observations may not be available.
NOAA Weather Radio station WXM-44, transmitting from Mt.
Ascutney, Vermont, on frequency 162.475 MHz is non- operational
at this time. NWS technicians have diagnosed the problem, but
repairs will likely not be able to occur for quite some time due
to circumstances beyond our control. Therefore, the time of
return to service is currently unknown. The following NOAA
Weather Radio transmitters may be able to provide service during
this outage: WWG 50 from Burke Mtn, VT at 162.425 MHz and WNG
546 from Hanover, NH at 162.525 MHz.
The Colchester Reef meteorological station is out of service.
This site is not serviced by the NWS and there isn`t an
estimated return to service at present. Please contact us if you
observe winds significantly deviating from the recreational
forecast.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.
&&
$$
WHAT HAS CHANGED...Hastings
DISCUSSION...Kutikoff/Hastings
AVIATION...Kutikoff
EQUIPMENT...NWS BTV
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