343
FXUS61 KBTV 300713
AFDBTV
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
213 AM EST Sun Nov 30 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
A low pressure system moving through the region will allow for
breezy conditions and light snowfall accumulations, with a
transition to rainfall expected within the valleys. Much cooler air
will follow for Monday. Another low pressure system will likely pass
to our south on Tuesday, which may support a widespread snowfall in
the region. An Arctic front is probable for Thursday, bringing
chances for squall-like showers and sharply colder air.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 211 AM EST Sunday...A Wind Advisory is in effect for portions
of northern New York and Vermont from 7 AM this morning until 7 PM
this afternoon due to strong southerly winds.
Low pressure centered over the Great Lakes will continue to pass to
our west, bringing another day of active weather to the region
today. While light precipitation is expected, the winds look to be
the more impactful weather, with breezy southerly winds expected due
to a strong low level jet. There is still some uncertainty regarding
how well these winds will actually mix down to the surface, with
model soundings showing a wide range of outcomes, especially when
taking into account precipitation and how well the wind potential
lines up with the dry slot this afternoon. With the latest guidance
continuing to support greater potential of gusts of 45 mph,
especially along the northern slopes of the Adirondacks and the
shores of Lake Champlain, a Wind Advisory was issued. Areas that
receive snowfall today will have periods of sharply reduced
visibility due to blowing snow, so motorists should use extra
caution.
This low pressure will continue to bring chances for precipitation
across the region today. While snow is expected at the onset for all
locations, the strong southerly flow will allow for temperatures to
warm enough within the valleys that precipitation will transition to
rain by the afternoon. Some periods of heavier snowfall may be
possible later this evening as the systems cold front crosses the
region, with the HREF showing some low probabilities of rates
exceeding 1 inch per hour across northern New York. Total snowfall
amounts associated with this event will generally be just a trace in
the broader valleys while higher elevations will likely accumulate a
few inches of snow. As the night progresses, widespread
precipitation will transitions to become more orographically driven
towards Monday morning.
Cool and quiet weather is expected during the day Monday as another
brief period of high pressure builds into the region in between
systems. High temperatures on Monday look to only climb into the 20s
to low 30s, with most locations struggling to get above freezing.
Dry weather and lighter winds are expected throughout the day, with
a few chances for some blue skies in the afternoon.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 157 PM EST Saturday...A large polar high pressure area
will slide into our region, with its center passing to our
south. As such, a brisk west to northwest wind will gradually
relax as will any morning snow showers. The low level air mass
may be the coldest we`ve had yet this season as the snow growth
zone near the surface, hence shallow clouds could support
mountain snow before skies clear. High temperatures could be
those in the morning, as they will struggle to warm against the
cold air advection. While temperatures aloft will begin to
rebound, it will be too late to make a meaningful difference;
surface temperatures will mainly be steady in the mid 20s to low
30s through the day in Vermont and upper 10s to low 20s in
northern New York (mid to upper 20s Champlain Valley).
Clouds will arrive and thicken in the typical top-down fashion
Monday night ahead of a large open wave trough from the west. In
response to increasing upper level divergence and the associated
lift, precipitation will spread through the area, with much of it
probably virga initially. The bulk of snow will hold off until
Tuesday. However, moistening of lower levels could lead to sudden
steady snow developing, especially as one goes farther west in our
region. In Vermont, except northeastern areas, and northeastern New
York there is currently about a 10-20% chance of measurable
precipitation/light snow accumulation through daybreak Tuesday, and
about 25-45% in St. Lawrence County where impacts to the Tuesday
morning commute are more likely at this time. The cold and dry air
mass in place will support a fast fall in temperatures potentially,
then as clouds move in there could be a reversal. Unsurprisingly,
the low temperatures spread is higher than typical in our region
related to how these radiational effects could play out. Just
something to keep an eye on as current low temperatures are as low
as the single digits above zero in the Adirondacks and Northeast
Kingdom.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 126 PM EST Saturday...The center of a coastal storm passes by
to the southeast Tuesday into Tuesday night, bringing some snow to
the region. The models have yet to converge on a storm track, with
the options ranging between tracking over southern New England to a
couple hundred miles southeast of Martha`s Vineyard. Under any of
the scenarios, parts of southern Vermont should at least some light
snow, but its snowfall rates and northern extent remain unclear. The
ensemble consensus favors a more southeastern track at this time,
leading toward less snow. GEFS/EPS/CAN ensemble probabilities of 4+
inches of snow are generally up to around 50 percent in southern
Vermont and 7+ inches are up to around 33 percent. These
probabilities fall pretty quickly heading to the north.
A mostly dry day should occur on Wednesday with cold air advection.
An arctic front looks to pass through on Thursday, bringing the
potential for organized snow showers and squalls. The front should
feature a sharp boundary, and have some instability and decent
frontogenesis, but the strength of the snow showers will remain
uncertain until the event comes closer. Behind the front, the
coldest air of the season will arrive, with temperatures falling
into the single digits most places Thursday night. Behind it,
temperatures moderate a little, but the colder and active wintry
pattern will continue!
&&
.AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Through 06Z Saturday...VFR conditions currently prevail across all
terminals before lower ceilings and precipitation arrive to the
region. Ceilings will generally begin to lower towards 09Z or so,
with more widespread MVFR expected between 12Z and 18Z. Snow will
begin to move into the region, which will also bring some reduced
visibilities. Periods of light to moderate snow are expected for
most terminals, likely bringing some IFR visibilities, especially
KSLK and KMSS where snow will more persistent. Precipitation is
expected to transition towards rain at KRUT, KPBG, and KBTV through
the afternoon, which will allow for some improved visibilities.
Light and variable winds will quickly increase out of the
south/southwest towards 12Z, with gusts of 20 to 30 knots expected
across all terminals and even higher gusts possible at
KSLK/KPBG/KBTV where a Wind Advisory is in effect. Widespread LLWS
is expected across all terminals after 15Z, persisting through much
of the afternoon.
Outlook...
Monday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. NO SIG WX.
Monday Night: VFR. Slight chance SN.
Tuesday: Mainly MVFR and IFR, with local VFR possible. Likely SN.
Tuesday Night: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. Chance SN.
Wednesday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance
SHSN.
Thursday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance SHSN.
&&
.MARINE...
A Lake Wind Advisory is currently in effect. Large scale
southerly flow will result in sustained winds over 25 knots, and
exceeding 30 knots for much of the day, in the Inland Sea and
Broad Waters of Lake Champlain with even higher gusts possible.
Expect substantial seiche action as waves build 2 to 4 feet in
the northern waters, and 4 to 6 feet on the broad waters. A
slight easterly component to the wind will favor areas like
Cumberland Bay with some of the largest waves through the
afternoon before shifting more due southerly.
&&
.EQUIPMENT...
NOAA Weather Radio station WXM-44, transmitting from Mt.
Ascutney, Vermont, on frequency 162.475 MHz is non-operational
at this time. NWS technicians have diagnosed the problem, but
repairs will likely not be able to occur for quite some time due
to circumstances beyond our control. Therefore, the time of
return to service is currently unknown. The following NOAA
Weather Radio transmitters may be able to provide service during
this outage: WWG 50 from Burke Mtn, VT at 162.425 MHz and WNG
546 from Hanover, NH at 162.525 MHz.
Equipment malfunctions at the Colchester Reef meteorological
station will likely leave it inoperable for an extended period
of time. This site is not serviced by the NWS. Technicians do
not currently have an estimated return to service for this
station. Use extra caution when navigating the broad waters of
Lake Champlain, and please contact us if you observe winds
significantly deviating from the forecast.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...Wind Advisory from 7 AM this morning to 7 PM EST this evening
for VTZ001-002-005.
NY...Wind Advisory from 7 AM this morning to 7 PM EST this evening
for NYZ027-028-030-031-034-035.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Kremer
NEAR TERM...Kremer
SHORT TERM...Kutikoff
LONG TERM...Myskowski
AVIATION...Kremer
MARINE...Team BTV
EQUIPMENT...Team BTV
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