175
FXUS61 KBTV 221923
AFDBTV
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
223 PM EST Thu Jan 22 2026
.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
As of 218 PM EST Thursday...The Extreme Cold Watch has been
upgraded to an Extreme Cold Warning for all of northern New York
and much of Vermont for dangerously cold conditions Friday
night through Saturday morning. A Winter Storm Watch has been
issued for Rutland and Windsor Counties from Sunday afternoon
through late Monday night.
&&
.KEY MESSAGES...
As of 218 PM EST Thursday...
1. Localized hazardous travel is expected this afternoon, tonight,
and again on Friday due to a combination of scattered snow squalls
and a lake effect snow band. Additional squalls are likely on
Friday. Sharply reduced visibility due to both falling and blowing
snow, and a rapid accumulation of snow will make for slippery and
hazardous travel, including for this evening`s commute and again on
Friday.
2. Dangerously cold conditions are increasingly likely late this
week, with wind chills of -20F to -40F possible. Risk of hypothermia
and frostbite is unusually high due to the extreme nature of the
cold, especially for vulnerable populations and anyone venturing
outdoors without proper cold weather gear.
3. A Winter Storm Watch has been posted for Rutland and Windsor
counties for the potential of 7 inches or more of snow late Sunday
through Monday, which could be expanded northward given trends in
guidance.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
As of 218 PM EST Thursday...
.KEY MESSAGE 1: Scattered snow squalls are ongoing across the region
this afternoon, with near white out conditions at times. We are also
starting to see winds pick up as well, with gusts of 30-40 mph being
reported. This will cause areas of blowing snow and further lowering
visibilities. These squalls will gradually die down this evening,
though a few moderate to heavy showers can`t be ruled out overnight.
We`ve already had reports of snow accumulations exceeding 1 in/hr,
but this really heavy snowfall is brief. So overall accumulations
with these snow squalls will mainly be 2 inches or less.
Meanwhile, a narrow lake effect band will develop off of Lake
Ontario as gusty west winds continue overnight. This band will waver
through southern St Lawrence County tonight and on Friday. Snowfall
totals will be 3 to 9 inches in southern St Lawrence County, with
the highest totals along and south of Route 3. Hence the Winter
Weather Advisory remains in effect until 7 pm Friday.
Either from today`s squalls or the lake effect band, heavy snowfall
rates and gusty winds will make for localized treacherous travel due
to visibility reduced to below 1/2 mile and rapid snow accumulations
resulting in slippery roads. Anyone driving today and tonight needs
to remain alert and be prepared for highly variable driving
conditions. You may want to consider postponing travel until after
the squalls/lake effect have ended.
Unfortunately, we could see another round of squalls on Friday as a
secondary, arctic front will move through. With better frontal
forcing, the squalls should be less scattered, forming a few broken
lines through the afternoon and evening. Like today, briefly heavy
snowfall combined with gusty winds will make for treacherous travel,
so please plan ahead if you will be out on the roads.
.KEY MESSAGE 2: Very dangerously cold conditions are expected Friday
night and Saturday, with wind chills of -20F to -40F areawide.
Therefore, we have upgraded the Extreme Cold Watch to an Extreme
Cold Warning, effective 7 pm Friday to 1 pm Saturday. This will be
the coldest airmass of the season so far, and given the extreme
nature of the cold, the risk of hypothermia and frostbite will be
unusually high. This is especially true for vulnerable populations
and anyone venturing outdoors without proper cold weather gear.
As the aforementioned arctic cold front crosses our region on
Friday, a much colder airmass will spread southward in its wake.
925mb temperatures will approach -28 to -30C, with overnight ambient
temperatures to drop well below zero by early Saturday morning. The
issue on Friday night will be the continued breezy conditions, as
strong cold air advection will keep us mixed through much of the
overnight hours. Friday`s daytime gusts will gradually wane as the
strongest winds exit to the south and east. But with lows to be -5F
to -20F, even relatively light winds will be enough to result in
brutally cold wind chills. As it is, gusts up to 25 mph will be
possible through at least the first half of the night, with
sustained winds likely still 5-10 mph by daybreak Saturday. The
result of this will be brutally cold wind chills of -20F to -40F,
with the most extreme conditions in the northern Adirondacks and the
Northeast Kingdom. We are urging people to stay indoors if possible,
especially vulnerable populations like the elderly and children. If
you must be outdoors, please make sure to wear plenty of warm gear,
including gloves or mittens and a hat. Any exposed skin will be
susceptible to frostbite in just a few minutes. And don`t forget
about your pets; bring them inside if at all possible.
The cold continues well into Saturday morning, but winds will
continue to subside through the day. We should see increasing
sunshine, as well. Still, wind chills will remain well below zero
through the afternoon as daytime ambient temperatures will remain in
the -5F to +5F range. Proper precautions still need to be taken even
during the afternoon. Saturday night will be very cold once again,
but with little wind. Lows are still expected to range from around
0F to around -20F. There is still some uncertainty in exactly which
locations will be coldest, however, as high clouds will be
increasing overnight, limiting radiational cooling. Still,
additional cold weather headlines may be needed.
KEY MESSAGE 3: The potential for a widespread moderate snowfall
has increased acrs our cwa late Sunday thru Monday. Large scale
synoptic setup shows strong southern stream energy/sub-tropical
moisture racing acrs the Gulf Coast States on Sunday, while
potent northern stream energy digs acrs the northern Plains. Its
this digging s/w energy that has caused amplification of
downstream ridging off the East Coast and deepening of mid/upper
lvl trof, while pulling deeper moisture into central/northern
New England. The question is how much moisture can be advected
northward with strong 1040mb high pres anchored over northern
Maine. Still a large spread in guidance with regards to snowfall
accumulations acrs our fa, with the GFS showing the least
amount, while ECMWF/UKMET/CMC and both the AI GFS/ECMWF showing
potential warning criteria snowfall up to the International
Border.
As northern/southern stream energy phases double barrel low pres
with strong cad signature on lee-side of the Appalachians Mtns
develops on Sunday. The mid lvl ascent associated with an axis of
moderate to strong 7h fgen forcing wl shift from the mid Atlantic
states toward central New England on Sunday night, while potent
northern stream energy moves directly overhead. This synoptic scale
lift and advection of deeper sub-tropical over our very cold air
mass in place wl produce a period of moderate snowfall with high
fluff factor. Did note even in the drier GFS sounding profiles an
extremely deep DGZ from the sfc thru 22,000 feet with near
saturation in terms of ice in the cloud. This moisture/thermal
profiles indicate the potential for big time fluff factor acrs our
cwa, which could result in higher snowfall totals if enough moisture
is present. Snow ratios could be in the 20 to 25 to 1 ratio. The
primary impacts would be difficult travel late Sunday into Monday,
with moderate snowfall rates and very low visibilities. NBM
indicates probability of 7 inches or more of 60% or greater along
and south of a OGS to BTV to 1V4, with 60 to 80% or higher for
snowfall of at least 4 inches or more.
Mid/upper lvl trof along with some mid lvl goodies for enhanced
synoptic scale ascent lingers into Monday night with additional
light snowfall likely, that is why the watch is thru 06z Tues. This
lagging energy causes sfc low pres to stretch and linger just east
of MA, which could result in light snow prevailing into Tues,
especially as northwest upslope flow develops. Eventually moisture
decreases and snow showers taper off.
Temps wl continue to be much below normal for Sunday through the
middle of next week, especially Sunday into Monday with cold
northerly sfc winds and plenty of cloud cover.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Through 18Z Friday...Very challenging aviation with quickly
changeable conditions thru 00z this evening associated with snow
showers and embedded heavier snow squalls. Current conditions
range from LIFR/IFR at SLK/BTV to VFR at PBG/RUT/MSS/MPV with
radar showing scattered snow shower activity. I have utilized
2 to 3 hour tempo groups for brief 15 to 20 minutes of IFR or
lower conditions associated with multiple rounds of snow showers
thru 21Z/22Z this aftn. Additional snow showers will impact SLK
again toward 00z this evening with more IFR or lower conditions
likely. Also, gusty south/southwest winds of 15 to 30 knots will
create areas of blowing and drifting snow, especially at SLK/MSS
and EFK thru this evening. Conditions slowly trend toward VFR in
the valleys and MVFR/VFR in the mountain taf sites by 06z
tonight. More scattered snow showers are likely again on Friday
associated with an arctic boundary.
Outlook...
Friday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHSN.
Saturday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Saturday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Sunday: VFR. Chance SN.
Sunday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR and IFR possible.
Definite SN.
Monday: Mainly MVFR and IFR, with areas VFR possible. Likely SN.
Monday Night: VFR. Chance SN.
Tuesday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
&&
.CLIMATE...
Record low maximum temperatures are possible on Saturday; below
are the current records:
KBTV (Burlington area): -4 in 1907
KPBG (Plattsburgh area): 0 in 1976
KSLK (Saranac Lake area): -10 in 1936
KMSS (Massena): -5 in 2004
KMPV (Montpelier): 0 in 2004
SJBV1 (St. Johnsbury): -3 in 1907
&&
.EQUIPMENT...
NOAA Weather Radio station WXM-44, transmitting from Mt.
Ascutney, Vermont, on frequency 162.475 MHz is non-operational
at this time. NWS technicians have diagnosed the problem, but
repairs will likely not be able to occur for quite some time due
to circumstances beyond our control. Therefore, the time of
return to service is currently unknown. The following NOAA
Weather Radio transmitters may be able to provide service during
this outage: WWG 50 from Burke Mtn, VT at 162.425 MHz and WNG
546 from Hanover, NH at 162.525 MHz.
The Colchester Reef meteorological station is out of service.
This site is not serviced by the NWS and there isn`t an
estimated return to service at present. Use extra caution when
navigating the broad waters of Lake Champlain. Please contact us
if you observe winds significantly deviating from the
recreational forecast.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...Extreme Cold Warning from 7 PM Friday to 1 PM EST Saturday for
VTZ001>011-016>021.
Winter Storm Watch from Sunday afternoon through late Monday
night for VTZ011-019>021.
NY...Extreme Cold Warning from 7 PM Friday to 1 PM EST Saturday for
NYZ026>031-034-035-087.
Winter Weather Advisory until 7 PM EST Friday for NYZ029.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Hastings/Taber
AVIATION...Taber
CLIMATE...NWS BTV
EQUIPMENT...NWS BTV
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