857
FXUS61 KBTV 030011
AFDBTV
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
811 PM EDT Tue Jun 2 2026
.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
As of 248 PM EDT Tuesday...
No significant changes for the afternoon forecast.
&&
.KEY MESSAGES...
As of 248 PM EDT Tuesday...
1. A brief warm spell is expected through the end of the work
week, with the warmest temperatures expected Thursday and Friday.
2. Showers are expected this weekend, including possible
scattered thunderstorms on Saturday and steadier rain on Sunday, as
temperatures cool slightly. Dry and seasonable weather will likely
follow for early next week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
As of 248 PM EDT Tuesday...
KEY MESSAGE 1: The second half of the week will be markedly different
from the first; a building ridge will bring warming temperatures and
a return of more seasonal early summer conditions. Temperatures will
peak at their warmest on Thursday and again on Friday, when
highs are forecast in the 80s throughout the area. Dewpoints
will gradually tick up through the end of the week, but will
remain in the 40s to mid 50s...or generally in a dry to
comfortable range. Forecast soundings continue to show a dry
layer in the mid-levels through Thursday, which will allow
afternoon dewpoints to fall as the drier air is mixed to the
surface during the mid-day hours. The lower humidities will keep
overall heat risk low, but given the recent cooler conditions,
individuals sensitive to heat should prepare accordingly for the
brief warm spell that will last through Friday.
KEY MESSAGE 2: Following a dry workweek, unfortunately we are looking
at rain over the weekend associated with the next trough of low
pressure moving eastward through our region. While there are
important location and timing differences amongst model guidance,
signals for rain are strong with about a 90-95% chance of seeing
some rainfall over the weekend. Generally chances of rain ramps up
Friday night into Saturday with greater chances reaching into the 50
to 70% range for much of the region between 2 and 8 PM Saturday.
This rain is accompanied by a 20-30% chance of thunder, associated
with modestly high chances of Surface Based CAPE exceeding 500 J/kg.
Currently the most favorable area for thunderstorms is over northern
Vermont, but this is a sharp shift northward from previous model
cycles, pointing to large spatial uncertainty.
At this time, any strong thunderstorm potential looks very low per
dynamical and statistical guidance, limited by deep layer shear most
likely only in the 25 to 30 knot range. We`ll keep an eye on trends
as we approach the weekend, as the large scale pattern with low
pressure passing to our north and at least modest instability and
moisture ahead of a cold front does suggest potential for scattered
thunderstorms. Rainfall amounts, especially given several dry days
ahead of this event, do not look concerning at this time with
regards to flood risk, but localized heavy rain will be possible
with any thunderstorms followed by additional steadier/lighter rain
on Sunday.
Temperatures, relative to normal, will be mildest to start the
longer range period Friday night/Saturday morning given moist
southern flow and lack of rain cooled air. Signals for unusual
warmth are fairly weak, but consistent with most likely low
temperatures in the low to mid 60s in the Champlain Valley and
Adirondacks. Where winds in these scenarios tend to be lighter
across central/eastern Vermont, this signal is muted. Otherwise, a
cooling trend is expected moving from Saturday into Sunday. Highs
Saturday in the warm sector of the low pressure system are favored
to reach the 80s one more time across the Champlain Valley and Upper
Valley. Areawide, highs Sunday look about 10 degrees lower due to a
combination of northerly flow and potential for steadier rain as low
pressure tracks through the region. Note temperatures will be
heavily influenced by where any persistent rain falls during the
day. With a seasonably weak thermal gradient tied to the frontal
boundary, once the precipitation and clouds depart behind the
system, we`re looking at a rebound in temperatures for Monday with
seasonable temperatures trending above normal for Tuesday.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Through 00Z Thursday...VFR conditions will persist through the
forecast period with chances of fog less than 10% at locations
that experienced fog this morning. MPV will have the best chance
in the 08-09Z time frame, but drying has been pronounced today
and MPV is 2C warming and 1C drier at this hour as compared to
24 hours ago. This favors more limited fog chances or may result
in brief, shallow ground fog. Winds are favored to drop off
sharply with drainage winds off of terrain favored tonight. Weak
northwest gradient will remain tomorrow, but a lake breeze is
likely to set up for PBG.
Outlook...
Wednesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Thursday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Thursday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Friday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Friday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA.
Saturday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Likely SHRA,
Chance TSRA.
Saturday Night: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. Chance SHRA, Slight
chance TSRA.
Sunday: Mainly IFR, with areas MVFR possible. Likely SHRA.
&&
.CLIMATE...
Temperatures will be approaching daily record maximums on
Thursday. At this time, Plattsburgh (PBG) has the greatest
likelihood of reaching its current record of 88 degrees set on
June 4th, 1967.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.
&&
$$
WHAT HAS CHANGED...Duell
DISCUSSION...Kutikoff/Duell
AVIATION...Boyd
CLIMATE...NWS BTV
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