226
FXUS61 KBTV 041755
AFDBTV
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
1255 PM EST Sun Jan 4 2026
.SYNOPSIS...
An arctic high pressure will build into our region by tonight, while
a stationary boundary remains draped across southern Vermont. A few
flurries or light snow showers will be possible as temperatures hold
mostly in the teens today. Clearing skies and light winds will allow
temperatures to fall between zero and 15 degrees below zero tonight.
A band of light snow develops on Monday, followed by warmer
temperatures and the threat of mixed precipitation for late Tuesday
into Wednesday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 138 AM EST Sunday...Sfc analysis places stationary boundary
draped acrs southern VT into central NY while 1020mb arctic high
pres is nosing toward our cwa from central Canada. GOES-19 mid lvl
water vapor imagery indicates weak s/w energy and pocket of enhanced
moisture moving toward the southern SLV attm, which wl ride along
boundary and produce more snow flurries activity today. Sounding
data shows moisture is rather shallow, but given dynamics and a
region of favorable rh relative to ice, feel a few light snow
showers/flurries wl linger at times today, dusting to 0.5" possible.
Have covered potential with chc pops mainly along and south of a MSS
to BTV to LEB line. Progged 925mb temps show a sharp north to south
gradient acrs our cwa with values near -17C acrs the International
Border to -9C near VSF, so highs single digits north to mid 20s
south.
For tonight challenge wl be potential clouds and impacts on temps.
Soundings show lingering moisture in the 975mb to 850mb layer thru
06z, before thinning, while upper lvl rh increases toward 09z acrs
the SLV and quickly spreads eastward in the flow aloft. A narrow
1024mb ridge axis is progged to be directly overhead at 06z, so have
started with official and blended in the NBM 50th percentile, which
support lows 0F to -15F with a few values approaching -20F acrs the
NEK of VT. These values are 4 to 8 degrees cooler than both the
NAM/MAV guidance for our region and could be too cold if more clouds
are present.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 138 AM EST Sunday...A weak 700 to 500mb embedded vort and
associated enhanced 850 to 500mb rh axis shifts acrs our cwa on
Monday with a period of light waa snow expected. System wl be
running into a dry airmass initially so anticipate some virga before
llvls saturate enough to support snow. This is a classic high
pop/low qpf event with snowfall a dusting near the border to a few
inches possible over Rutland/Windsor Counties. Given light 925mb to
850mb wind fields, don`t anticipate much impact from trrn. Given the
large snow growth zone with favorable rh fields, fluff factor could
result in a bit of an overachiever in a few spots, something to
watch. Weak high pres rebuilds acrs eastern VT, including the NEK on
Monday night into Tues, as zonal flow aloft prevails. Temps warm
into the mid teens to mid 20s on Monday, before cooling back into
the single digits and teens on Monday night. If clearing develops
with fresh snow cover, temps could be several degrees cooler.
Tuesday is quiet with temps finally returning to near seasonable
levels in the mid 20s to lower 30s.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 138 AM EST Sunday...Above normal temperatures and an
active weather pattern continue to look like the main story for
Tuesday night through next Sunday. A warm front and associated
low pressure over eastern Ontario is anticipated to slide
northeastward during the late overnight hours Tuesday/Wednesday
morning. Precipitation chances increase from southwest to
northeast, and thermal profiles support all snow to start
Tuesday evening with surface temperatures in the mid teens to
mid 20s. Then, overrunning warmth aloft from the warm front is
expected to flow into northern New York and southern Vermont,
increasing the likelihood of freezing rain, sleet, and general
messiness in these areas and potentially elsewhere before dawn
Wednesday morning. Note that much will depend on how quickly a
secondary low develops off the coast of New England, and much
can still change with this wintry mix forecast. Southeasterly
winds will also be on the increase Tuesday night as a low level
jet moves overhead with widespread surface gusts 15-20 knots,
higher on summits.
The system is expected to slide eastward into Wednesday morning and
exit by Wednesday evening. By midday Wednesday, thermal profiles
will continue to warm with highs in the mid and upper 30s. Primarily
snow and a wintry mix will turn to mostly rain outside of the higher
terrain and eastern Greens. Winds will shift with the passage of
frontal boundaries and as the system moves in relation to the
forecast area. We`ll see winds turning out of the west and
southwest, gusting 15-20 knots at times, higher on mountaintops and
decreasing into the afternoon as the system pulls away. As the
system departs, cold air flowing in behind it will switch any
lingering precipitation to mountain snow, but will likely be
confined to the northern Greens, and Adirondacks Wednesday evening.
Temperatures will be set on a warming trend through Saturday with
highs climbing into the mid 30s to mid 40s and lows in the 20s to
mid 30s as ridging builds in and then a large, deep trough arrives.
Uncertainty pertaining to the track of the system remains, though
most models indicate the low pressure will take a northerly track
and therefore drag warmth into the region, resulting in a mostly
rain event. We continue to monitor the potential for ice movement
and snow melt with this system and the hazards those could pose.
Highest chance of precipitation despite model timing and track
differences is Friday evening/Friday night. Beyond this system,
upper level deterministic model solutions diverge sharply but
generally show continued chances for precipitation this weekend with
upslope northwesterly flow behind the system and a slight drop in
temperatures with the influx of colder air.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Through 18Z Monday...VFR to MVFR low Great Lakes clouds are slowly
shifting east with pockets of intermittent clearing. At this time
most sites are VFR though ceilings are hovering around 2500-3500ft
agl. with a prevailing mid level deck around 5000-6000ft agl.
Pockets of scattered to broken have lead to intermittent MVFR
ceilings above 2000ft agl which look to continue for the next 2-3
hours or so before some clearing upstream near Ottawa tries to work
in. The most impacted terminals are at SLK/EFK where low level
moisture has yet to scour out with some HZ/BR and light snow which
has reduced vsbys at times to mainly 3-5SM at SLK and IFR 1-2SM at
EFK. GLAMP guidance suggests these showers should taper by 20-22Z.
Into this evening continued lower ceilings are progged by the HREF,
however, with winds shifting to light northerlies, ceilings will be
a challenging forecast with how long and how low these ceilings get.
Northerly winds could push the lower lake clouds south of the
region, but more variable winds would likely keep MVFR ceilings
around at BTV/PBG/SLK/EFK for most of the night. Current thinking
leans into the HREF model solution. Refinements will be made in the
00 and 06Z TAFs. There is good agreement that by 12Z, any low
ceilings will be pushed out with brief VFR conditions and southerly
light winds for all terminals. By 16-18Z, a clipper system will move
into the region from west to east with IFR snow and MVFR/IFR
ceilings.
Outlook...
Monday Night: VFR. Chance SN.
Tuesday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Slight chance
SHSN.
Tuesday Night: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Likely SN,
Likely FZRA.
Wednesday: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Chance RA,
Chance SN.
Wednesday Night: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. NO SIG WX.
Thursday: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. NO SIG WX.
Thursday Night: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Chance RA,
Chance SN.
Friday: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Chance RA.
&&
.EQUIPMENT...
NOAA Weather Radio station WXM-44, transmitting from Mt.
Ascutney, Vermont, on frequency 162.475 MHz is non-operational
at this time. NWS technicians have diagnosed the problem, but
repairs will likely not be able to occur for quite some time due
to circumstances beyond our control. Therefore, the time of
return to service is currently unknown. The following NOAA
Weather Radio transmitters may be able to provide service during
this outage: WWG 50 from Burke Mtn, VT at 162.425 MHz and WNG
546 from Hanover, NH at 162.525 MHz.
The Colchester Reef meteorological station is out of service.
This site is not serviced by the NWS and there isn`t an
estimated return to service at present. Use extra caution when
navigating the broad waters of Lake Champlain. Please contact us
if you observe winds significantly deviating from the
recreational forecast.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Taber
NEAR TERM...Taber
SHORT TERM...Taber
LONG TERM...Storm
AVIATION...Danzig
EQUIPMENT...Team BTV
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