744
FXUS61 KBTV 062322
AFDBTV
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
622 PM EST Thu Nov 6 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
Quiet weather is expected overnight into Friday morning.
Additional showers will shift east tomorrow night as another
frontal system approaches the region, along with the development
of breezy south winds. Following the front, unsettled weather
will continue through the weekend into next week, accompanied by
seasonably cool temperatures.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
As of 129 PM EST Thursday...Although a few showers continue to linger
across the region this afternoon, drier conditions prevail across
much of the area with some blue skies evening making an appearance
in some locations. Northwesterly winds continue to be a bit breezy,
but will continue to diminish throughout the evening as a brief
period of ridging continues to build into the region. Overnight lows
will generally be in the 20s, with some colder spots in the Adirondacks
dropping into the teens and locations near Lake Champlain near freezing.
The first half of tomorrow will be relatively quiet, with increasing
cloud cover ahead of an approaching system, which will bring another
round of showers moving in to the region tomorrow afternoon.
Additionally, another period of breezy winds is expected to develop
tomorrow afternoon into the overnight hours as a strong low level
jet moves across the region. Wind gusts of 30 to 40 mph will be
possible, especially in the Champlain Valley and across the higher
terrain, with even higher winds possible on Lake Champlain.
Precipitation amounts will be fairly light, generally 0.1 to 0.25
inches, with some locally higher amounts in the higher terrain,
falling mostly as rain. High temperatures will be on the warmer side
tomorrow given the warm southerly flow, climbing into the upper 40s
and 50s for most locations. Overnight lows will be a bit on the
milder side tomorrow night with the showers and cloud cover,
generally in the 30s and 40s.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
As of 129 PM EST Thursday...Unsettled weather will continue as we
head into the weekend, with shower activity gradually diminishing
during the day Saturday; although some showers can be expected to
linger in the favored upslope areas through most of the day.
Temperatures on Saturday will be in the upper 40s and 50s, with some
locations in southern Vermont nearing 60. The next system will begin
approaching the region late Saturday into Sunday, bringing more
precipitation and unsettled weather to the region. Overnight lows
Saturday night will generally be in the 20s to near freezing, so
some snow can be expected at the onset of precipitation across
northern New York.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 129 PM EST Thursday...Unsettled weather will continue through
much of next week, with a series of systems to bring
precipitation chances just about every day. An upper trough
will dig into the Midwest/Great Lakes Sunday and Monday, lifting
a surface low pressure system up to our west and eventually to
our north. A secondary low will develop as the primary lifts
northeastward, moving through southern New England and
eventually into ME. Precipitation associated with the preceding
warm front will spread into our region Sunday, on the nose of a
50+ kt 850mb jet. Cold air will be in place as warmer air moves
in aloft, so expect precipitation will start out as snow,
transitioning over to rain as the surface warms above freezing.
There may be a period of freezing rain during this transition,
especially in the St Lawrence Valley where northeast winds will
likely linger through at least the morning hours. The more
sheltered valleys east of the Greens could hold onto cold air at
the surface as well, though the expectation that this would be
brief. Trends will need to be monitored going ahead; freezing
rain may need to be added to the forecast if confidence
increases, particularly in the St Lawrence Valley. Otherwise,
expect all but the highest summits will warm enough to turn over
to plain rain by early Sunday afternoon.
A cold front will cross the region Sunday night into early Monday as
the primary low moves by to our north. This will change rain back
over to snow, and trending precipitation more showery. The upper
trough axis swings overhead late Monday, and we`ll will remain under
broad cyclonic flow on the backside of the trough through the
remainder of the period. Shortwave troughs rotating around the
trough will keep shower chances each day, and with west/northwest
flow dominating, would anticipate the favored western slopes of the
Adirondacks and Greens will be the focus for showers. Overnight
temperatures will be cold enough that snow levels will drop to the
valley floors, so even the Champlain/St Lawrence/Connecticut Valleys
will see a little snow at times. Tuesday will the coldest day of the
week with highs only in the 30s to perhaps 40F, but overall expect
snow will be confined to the higher terrain during the daylight
hours.
&&
.AVIATION /23Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Through 00z Saturday...Mainly VFR conditions are expected for
the next 18-20 hours. Ceilings will remain 3000-5000 ft over the
next few hours before clouds scatter between 03-06z, and then
high clouds above 10000 ft shift east. West to northwest winds
are in the process of slowing. There are still a few reports
with speeds around 10 knots and gusts 15-18 knots, but will
quickly end with 3 to 8 knot winds trending variable or shifting
southerly. Wind speeds increase after 14z back to 7 to 13 knots
sustained with gusts up to 25 knots. Ceilings will gradually
lower as low-level dry air erodes. Anticipate some virga on
radar. Broader shower chances will begin to shift east of the
St. Lawrence Valley about 21-22z. For now, only have prevailing
rain and ceilings trending to 2500 ft agl at KMSS. Elsewhere,
PROB30s highlight uncertainty of when rain can start reaching
the ground. LLWS will develop as south to southwest winds at
2000 ft agl increase to 45-50 by 21-22z.
Outlook...
Friday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Definite
SHRA.
Saturday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance SHRA.
Saturday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight
chance SHRA, Slight chance SN, Slight chance SHSN.
Sunday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Definite RA.
Sunday Night: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Definite RA,
Likely SN.
Monday: Mainly IFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance SHRA, Chance
SHSN.
Monday Night: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. Chance SHSN.
Veterans Day: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance SHSN.
&&
.MARINE...
Breezy northwest winds continue on Lake Champlain this
afternoon, with gusts between 25 and 30 knots. Winds are
expected to diminish over the next few, becoming more westerly
at 5 to 15 knots for tonight. Winds will shift and become more
southerly during the afternoon tomorrow, increasing to 15 to 25
knots sustained for tomorrow afternoon with gusts up to 40
knots possible. Waves will likely build to 4 to 6 feet during
this period. These strong southerly winds will continue into
the overnight hours before weakening by Saturday morning.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Kremer
NEAR TERM...Kremer
SHORT TERM...Kremer
LONG TERM...Hastings
AVIATION...Haynes
MARINE...Storm
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