472
FXUS61 KBTV 042327
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
627 PM EST Thu Dec 4 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Gusty winds and sharply falling temperatures follow post
frontal passage this afternoon and evening. Frigid conditions
are expected overnight with widespread lows in the single digits
above and below zero, with teens below zero in the Adirondacks.
Temperatures moderate back into the 20s and 30s for highs, and
teens to 20s for lows Friday into the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 618 PM EST Thursday...Quick update this evening to
increase wind/wind gusts for a few more hours as we have gusted
to 36 knots here and 33 knots at MPV associated with 850mb winds
of 40 to 50 knots and strong pres rise couplet behind arctic
boundary. Continued with areas of blowing snow and a few
lingering light snow showers/flurries over central VT for the
next hour or two. As 1028mb high pres builds into our cwa,
winds should quickly decrease by 02/03Z. Also, lowered summit
temps several degrees to match crnt obs, as Whiteface is already
at -13F with windchill of -48F. Otherwise, rest of fcst in
great shape.

Previous discussion below:
Key Messages:
* Scattered to numerous snow showers with possible embedded snow
  squalls along an arctic frontal passage through early this
  evening.
* Frigid temperatures tonight in the single digits above and
  below zero. Some teens below zero in the colder hollows. Cold
  Weather Advisory in effect for parts of the Adirondacks.
* Lake Wind Advisory in effect for this evening. Winds will peak
  around 00z out of the northwest.

Snow showers have intensified again this afternoon as upper
level shortwave pushes across the area. Conditions have been
very blustery this afternoon and blowing snow has been observed
as well. After 00z winds will begin to weaken and clouds will
clear out as surface high pressure builds into our area. Minimum
temperatures overnight will drop into the single digits above
and below zero, with teens below zero in the Adirondacks. Have
issued a cold weather advisory for southeastern St Lawrence
County and southern Franklin County. Friday and Friday night
will feature quiet weather as surface high settles over our
region. Frigid temperatures early morning Friday moderate to
afternoon highs in the teens and lows 20s, and drop back down
into the single digits and teens above zero Friday night under
increasing cloud cover.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
As of 120 PM EST Thursday...A shortwave trough passing north of
the border renews chances for snow showers across northern
portions of the region Saturday, focused mostly downwind of Lake
Ontario northeast through the Adirondacks and northern Vermont.
With the best upper level dynamics north of the region, snow
accumulations should be rather light and not impactful with
daytime temperatures returning to closer to seasonal normals in
the upper 20s to low 30s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 145 PM EST Thursday...Sunday will be cool, but generally
nice to start the day. A warm front is going to move north
partway across the region. So temperatures across southern
Vermont will be near freezing, while the international border
remains around 20. Clouds will be on the increase as that
boundary approaches, and PoPs begin climbing towards the end of
the day.

Most guidance depicts light snow overnight into Monday, but the
GFS is an outlier in developing a deeper low with some higher
snowfall amounts. Regardless, cold air will filter back in, with
temperatures struggling in the 10s during the day, and then
falling into the single digits above and below zero Monday night
into Tuesday. The overall pattern from ensembles indicates
slight amplification of the pattern, but most of the systems
will be quick moving and relatively minor impact with additional
snow chances.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Through 00Z Saturday...Primary aviation impacts will be gusty
winds with areas of blowing snow through 03z, before all sites
become VFR as surface high pres builds into our region.
Localized northwest winds of 15 to 20 knots with gusts 30 to 35
knots will create areas of blowing snow, especially at BTV/MPV
and EFK thru 03z, before winds decrease at 5 to 10 knots. Any
lingering MVFR cigs will quickly become VFR with maybe some lake
enhanced clouds impacting BTV overnight with intervals of MVFR
and a few flurries possible. Also, did note RAP soundings
indicating a sharp and very shallow inversion developing after
midnight at SLK, with near bl saturation, which could produce
some localized freezing fog. Feel probability is too low to
mention in TAF for SLK attm, but will brief night shift on the
potential. Otherwise, winds shift to the south at 5 to 10 knots
on Friday morning with VFR conditions.

Outlook...

Friday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Saturday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SN.
Saturday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Slight
chance SN.
Sunday: VFR. Slight chance SHSN.
Sunday Night: VFR. Chance SHSN.
Monday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Monday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday: VFR. Chance SHSN.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
NOAA Weather Radio station WXM-44, transmitting from Mt.
Ascutney, Vermont, on frequency 162.475 MHz is non-operational
at this time. NWS technicians have diagnosed the problem, but
repairs will likely not be able to occur for quite some time due
to circumstances beyond our control. Therefore, the time of
return to service is currently unknown. The following NOAA
Weather Radio transmitters may be able to provide service during
this outage: WWG 50 from Burke Mtn, VT at 162.425 MHz and WNG
546 from Hanover, NH at 162.525 MHz.

Equipment malfunctions at the Colchester Reef meteorological
station will likely leave it inoperable for an extended period
of time. This site is not serviced by the NWS. Technicians do
not currently have an estimated return to service for this
station. Use extra caution when navigating the broad waters of
Lake Champlain, and please contact us if you observe winds
significantly deviating from the forecast.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...Cold Weather Advisory until 9 AM EST Friday for NYZ029-030.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Neiles
NEAR TERM...Neiles/Taber
SHORT TERM...Neiles
LONG TERM...Haynes
AVIATION...Taber
EQUIPMENT...Team BTV