083
FXUS61 KBTV 151842
AFDBTV
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
242 PM EDT Wed Apr 15 2026
.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
As of 241 PM EDT Wednesday...
No significant changes, the severe threat for tomorrow remains
relatively the same.
&&
.KEY MESSAGES...
As of 241 PM EDT Wednesday...
1. A few showers continue through tonight.
2. Rounds of showers tomorrow with heightened thunderstorm
chances across southern Vermont.
3. Rainy and windy weather expected for the latter half of the
weekend as another frontal system impacts the region. Mountain snow
possible late Sunday into Sunday night with a cold frontal passage.
4. Much colder but dry to start next week, though trending
warmer with chances of rain by mid week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
As of 241 PM EDT Wednesday...
KEY MESSAGE 1: The stalled boundary will remain across the region
through tonight, helping lead to a few rounds of showers. Another
MCS will develop across the Great Lakes this evening and progress
eastward tonight. The convective elements look to mostly stay to the
south and they should be elevated by the time they approach. The
stratiform precip on the northern extent looks to pass through,
though a brief convective shower could reach far southern areas.
Overall, a couple tenths of an inch of rain are expected for
southern areas with decreasing amounts farther north. Areas north of
the boundary like the Champlain and St. Lawrence Valleys will likely
continue to see cool temperatures in the 50s and upper 40s and areas
of mist and drizzle through tonight. Patchy fog formation is
possible anywhere tonight due to light winds and abundant moisture.
KEY MESSAGE 2: A mostly dry period exists tomorrow morning after the
overnight MCS moves out. An area of low pressure will ride along
this stalled boundary during the afternoon and evening, bringing
multiple rounds of showers. The front will become a warm front
during the morning and push north. South of the front, there should
be areas of clearing and temperatures should rise into the 70s to
near 80. With dew points expected to rise to around 60 and with
somewhat steep lapse rates, around or slightly over 1,000 J of CAPE
looks to develop down there. However, the low looks to track south
of the international border so the front does not look to pass all
the way north of the region. North of the boundary, it will be a
completely different story. There will be rounds of synoptically
forced showers, some lower cloud cover, additional convective
blowoff and notably cooler temperatures. Therefore, any instability
that forms there looks to be minimal. All areas should see strong
dynamics, with HREF mean 0-6 KM shear between 45-60 KTs, 0-1 km SRH
between 75-150 m2/s2 and 0-3 KM SRH between 150-250 m2/s2. Due to
the favorable ingredients, isolated to scattered severe storms are
possible across southern Vermont. The main threat would be damaging
winds, though large hail is possible as well. Due to the relatively
fast motion of the storms, flash flooding is not expected. Compared
to yesterday, the dynamics look slightly better and the warm sector
looks to make its way a little farther north, but the exact details
and placement of the front remain uncertain. The airmass on the
backside of the low is warm so temperatures remain well above
climatological normals heading into the weekend.
KEY MESSAGE 3: Low pressure will slide by well to our north Saturday
and Saturday night, dragging a cold front along in its wake.
Temperatures will warm on a 50+ kt 850 mb jet ahead of the front,
allowing highs to rise into the 60s and 70s. Efficient mixing will
bring windy conditions late Saturday afternoon into the evening as
the core of the jet moves overhead. Gusts of 20 to 30 mph are
likely, with locally higher gusts possible in the St
Lawrence/Champlain Valleys due to channel and perhaps along the
northern slopes of the Adirondacks due to downsloping.
The cold front moves through Saturday night into early Sunday, so
expect we`ll have yet another non-diurnal temperature range, with
temperatures likely rising or holding steady overnight (especially
from the Champlain Valley eastward), then falling or holding steady
on Sunday under strong cold air advection (especially over northern
NY). Winds will remain gusty, first from the S/SW, turning toward
the W/NW after the frontal passage. Showers will come to a quick end
from west to east Sunday evening/night as much drier air follows the
front; PWATs will only drop to 0.25 or less. Hence, while we expect
anticipate temperatures to fall below freezing Sunday night (20s to
around 30F by daybreak Monday morning), little to no snow
accumulation is expected, particularly below summit levels.
KEY MESSAGE 4: Canadian high pressure will settle over the region for
the start of the work week. This will be a dry but colder airmass;
highs on Monday could well struggle to get into the 40s in the
higher terrain, with the wider valleys remaining in the low to mid
40s. Winds will be brisk out of the north/northwest, but we should
see at least some sunshine, especially by afternoon. The ridge
starts to shift east Monday night into Tuesday, so temperatures
should warm 5-10 degrees. Model consensus deviates significantly
from there onward, specifically with the strength/placement of an
incoming upper trough. Still, do anticipate at least some increasing
precipitation chances as moisture returns northward along the back
side of the departing ridge, though the details are very uncertain
at this point. Given the uncertainty, have not deviated from WPC`s
forecast from Monday onward.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Through 18Z Thursday...Widespread low clouds have lifted across many
of the terminals this afternoon, though KMSS remains IFR at this
time. In general, anticipate MVFR/VFR ceilings in light rain showers
for the first 4-6 hours of the TAF period, then conditions drop from
02z Thu onward as we once again see ceilings lower to below 1000 ft.
Widespread IFR/LIFR expected to persist through the remainder of the
overnight, though there may be brief localized periods of MVFR/VFR
at times. A nearly stationary frontal boundary will keep ample low
level moisture and light winds overnight as well, so anticipate
fog/mist overnight as well, though visibilities should remain 4-6SM.
There will be another round of showers 03z-09z, though don`t
anticipate these to lower visibilities much further. Ceilings start
to lift to MVFR after 13z, but additional showers start to move in
very late in the TAF period. Surface winds over the next 24 hours
will be light and variable, though KMSS should generally remain NE
through the period.
Outlook...
Thursday Night: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. Likely SHRA, Slight
chance TSRA.
Friday: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Chance SHRA, Slight
chance TSRA.
Friday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
Saturday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Saturday Night: VFR/MVFR conditions possible. Chance SHRA.
Sunday: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Likely SHRA.
Sunday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA,
Chance SHSN.
Monday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight chance SHSN.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.
&&
$$
WHAT HAS CHANGED...Myskowski
DISCUSSION...Myskowski/Hastings
AVIATION...Hastings
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