650
FXUS61 KBTV 310641
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
141 AM EST Wed Dec 31 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Widespread snow arrives this evening and tonight, with most areas
seeing 1 to 2 inches of snow by daybreak tomorrow and 2 to 6 inches
expected in St. Lawrence and Franklin counties of New York.
Seasonably cold weather continues into the New Year along with
occasional chances for mountain and lake effect snow showers.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 137 AM EST Wednesday...
**A Winter Weather Advisory has been issued for St. Lawrence and
 Franklin counties of New York 4 PM this afternoon through 7 AM
 tomorrow morning.
**Lake enhanced snow will transition to lighter, fluffier snow
 this evening through tomorrow morning, accumulating around 2 to
 6 inches in these two counties.
**Plan on slippery road conditions and periods of poor
 visibility during the Wednesday evening and Thursday morning
 commutes, as well as a period between 8 PM and 1 AM when snow
 may be particularly heavy.

Upslope snow showers are expected to taper off this morning with dry
conditions into the afternoon. Temperatures should rise into the
upper teens and 20s today, still 5-10 degrees below seasonal normals
but much milder than yesterday. Morning wind gusts 15-20 knots out
of the southwest will decrease in the afternoon. Then, southwesterly
flow will transport Lake Ontario moisture into the region, causing
some light to moderate snowfall to develop across northern New York
in the afternoon and evening. Surface low pressure will slide across
or just southeast of the St. Lawrence Valley tonight as a large
upper low moves across Ontario and Quebec to the north and
northwest. We`re expecting a band of moderate to perhaps briefly
heavy snow developing downwind of Lake Ontario and between the two
lows, likely in the St. Lawrence Valley, Adirondacks, and northern
Greens.

Unfortunately for those ringing in the new year across northern New
York, the heaviest snow is anticipated right around 8 PM through 1
AM, so please use caution if traveling anywhere for the
celebrations. The surface low is expected to drag a cold front
through the forecast area tonight as well, transitioning the
snowfall from a lower ratio lake enhanced snow to a lighter,
fluffier, high ratio snow that will blow around more easily tomorrow
morning. Temperatures will be in the teens and lower 20s around
midnight on New Year`s Day, falling into the bitter -5 to 15 F range
as the front draws in colder air.

Winds will be on the increase again tonight out of the northwest,
peaking tomorrow morning as snow comes to an end with gusts 10-25
knots, higher on mountaintops and on Lake Champlain. This is likely
to blow around snow, allowing treacherous travel conditions to
continue after snow ends. Temperatures tomorrow will only reach the
single digits to mid 20s despite decreasing clouds, running 10-20
degrees below averages. Plus, the gusty winds will make it feel even
colder with wind chills in the negatives.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 137 AM EST Wednesday...Tomorrow night will be especially frigid
with clear patches in the sky at times, though winds are expected to
decrease. Lows are forecast to fall into the single digits above and
below negative. Then, Friday will be yet another cold day with highs
in the teens and lower 20s and increasing clouds as flow turns once
more out of the southwest, increasing chances of some more lake
enhanced snow showers in northern New York, about 30-60% chance of
measurable precipitation in southern St. Lawrence and Franklin
counties. Moisture has about a 10-30% chance of making its way out
to the Champlain Valley and northern Greens to produce the odd snow
shower.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 139 AM EST Wednesday...Broad cyclonic flow will be quite
persistent for the extended forecast, generally keeping temperatures
below seasonal averages with weaker variety troughs anticipated to
move through in rapid succession. This overall pattern does not
favor heavy snowfall, but will lead to periods of showers especially
over higher terrain. Temperatures will be running below seasonal
averages with the base of the longwave trough favored over the
eastern seaboard. Highs are only expected in the teens with lows in
the single digits around zero continuing our recent cold stretch. A
decent number of models show the pattern begin to shift early next
week, allowing for what would likely be a clipper-style system to
move through the region. Timing and details are suspect this far
out, but will watch this system`s evolution for potential to move
the snow line northward which could result in mixed frozen/freezing
precipitation characteristics.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Through 06Z Thursday...Lingering IFR snow showers are ongoing at SLK
and will persist until dry air works in. Radar imagery supports
scouring snow showers by 8-10Z. RUT also will start IFR/MVFR with a
narrow band of snow showers directed at the terminal; this band will
be more short-lived so expecting it to clear mostly by 07Z.
Elsewhere, showers are tapering off with winds beginning to come up
again. Could see some gusts returning this morning before the
gradient relaxes after 12Z. LLWS will be a hazard for SLK/RUT/MPV
with a stronger core of low level winds moving through between 06-
14Z. Otherwise, MVFR/IFR chances increase after 21Z with the next
snow showers arriving this evening and overnight. Lowest VIS/CIGs
will be at SLK/MSS where snow bands may develop.

Outlook...

New Years Day: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight
chance SHSN.
Thursday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Friday: VFR. Slight chance SHSN.
Friday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight chance
SHSN.
Saturday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Saturday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Sunday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight chance SHSN.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
NOAA Weather Radio station WXM-44, transmitting from Mt.
Ascutney, Vermont, on frequency 162.475 MHz is non-operational
at this time. NWS technicians have diagnosed the problem, but
repairs will likely not be able to occur for quite some time due
to circumstances beyond our control. Therefore, the time of
return to service is currently unknown. The following NOAA
Weather Radio transmitters may be able to provide service during
this outage: WWG 50 from Burke Mtn, VT at 162.425 MHz and WNG
546 from Hanover, NH at 162.525 MHz.

The Colchester Reef meteorological station is out of service.
This site is not serviced by the NWS and there isn`t an
estimated return to service at present. Use extra caution when
navigating the broad waters of Lake Champlain. Please contact us
if you observe winds significantly deviating from the
recreational forecast.

The Newport AWOS has stopped reporting due to a communications
failure likely at the site. TAF amendments will not be
scheduled until this issue is resolved.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...Winter Weather Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 7 AM EST
     Thursday for NYZ026-027-029-030-087.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Storm
NEAR TERM...Storm
SHORT TERM...Storm
LONG TERM...Boyd
AVIATION...Boyd
EQUIPMENT...Team BTV