863
FXUS61 KBTV 060057
AFDBTV
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
857 PM EDT Sun Apr 5 2026
.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
As of 234 PM EDT Sunday...
No significant changes to the forecast. Forecast is on track for
light snowfall in higher elevations tonight and Monday night.
The temperatures have trended slightly colder for the brief midweek
cold spell.
&&
.KEY MESSAGES...
As of 234 PM EDT Sunday...
1. Several waves of light snow are expected tonight through
Tuesday, though accumulations will remain mainly limited to higher
terrain.
2. Temperatures will lower to below seasonable normals through
Wednesday.
3. Above normal temperatures the second half of the week with
widespread showers possible Friday and Saturday.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
As of 234 PM EDT Sunday...
KEY MESSAGE 1: Widely scattered light showers will linger over higher
elevations today, especially over the northern Adirondacks where low-
level moisture will be locally enhanced compared to areas further
east. These showers will briefly blossom overnight as a shortwave
comes through, though they will remain predominantly anchored to
higher terrain. Temperatures will fall to below freezing over higher
elevations by around midnight...supporting snow as the
predominant precipitation type overnight. The depth of available
moisture overnight will be limited to the low-levels, which
will limit total snowfall to generally under an inch for the
higher terrain of northern VT and northern NY. The exception
will be the northwestern slopes of the Adirondacks along with
the higher peaks of the Adirondacks and northern Greens, where
1-3 inches is forecast. After the Sunday night/Monday morning
light snow, the remainder of Monday will trend dry.
The next chance for snow showers will come Monday night into
Tuesday, though model spread on timing this second wave of light
snow is notably greater than the first wave. This translates to a
lower certainty on when and where we will see accumulations from
this second snowfall. Probabilistic guidance from the National Blend
of Models (NBM) highlights the Adirondacks and central Vermont as
the areas most likely to see 1-2 inches of snow Monday night into
Tuesday. Higher probabilities of seeing over 2 inches of snow in
this time frame are restricted to the southern Adirondacks (mainly
south of our forecast area of responsibility) and the highest
elevations of the central Greens (mainly in the vicinity of eastern
Addison County).
KEY MESSAGE 2: Cold air advection will swing the temperature pendulum
back to below normal for the first half of the work week. The
coldest period will be Monday night through Tuesday night. For
Monday night`s temperatures, have stayed close to the NBM for most
areas, but trended temperatures over higher elevations slightly
lower. This yields forecast lows in the 20s for most of the area,
except locally into the teens over higher elevations of the northern
Adirondacks and the Greens. Tuesday will only see highs in the
upper 20s to low 30s, which is a good 15 to 20 degrees below normal.
The coldest night will be Tuesday night/Wednesday morning, when high
pressure will crest overhead and radiational cooling will be
maximized. Have trended lows slightly lower than the NBM during
this period, yielding forecast lows between 10 and 20 degrees. After
Wednesday morning, we begin a warming trend to close out the week.
KEY MESSAGE 3: High pressure will transit to our east Thursday and
Friday, allowing temperatures to rise into the upper 50s or lower
60s Thursday into Friday. On Friday, a low pressure system begins to
pass well to our north, allowing temperatures to remain above normal
for the weekend. A line of showers associated with the frontal
boundary will impact some portion of northern New York and Vermont
Friday or Saturday. We`re still seeing significant model differences
regarding the extent and timing of this precipitation. Guidance
shows anywhere from a glancing blow from a narrower band of precip
to a more widespread and lasting event. Some of the latest guidance
also suggests a more stationary front that allows for repeated bouts
of showery weather throughout the weekend.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Through 00Z Tuesday...Cyclonic curvature and a trough swinging
through tonight will keep some shower chances around, mainly
over terrain in the Adirondacks and in northeastern Vermont.
With westerly flow direction, PBG will be largely shadowed while
a trough/upslope showers may occur at BTV. Best chances of IFR
will be at SLK 03-07Z, but can`t completely rule out CIG/VIS
reductions to IFR in the 00-03Z should a shower move directly
over the terminal. Showers taper down by 12Z becoming more
scarce through the day and limited to terrain allowing for VFR
to become widespread. Winds will be west generally through the
night becoming northwest late in the period. Gusts 15-25kts are
expected mainly outside periods of showers.
Outlook...
Monday Night: VFR. Chance SHSN.
Tuesday: VFR. Chance SHSN.
Tuesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Thursday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Thursday Night: VFR. Chance RA.
Friday: VFR. Chance RA.
&&
.EQUIPMENT...
The Colchester Reef meteorological station is out of service.
This site is not serviced by the NWS. An estimated return to
service is May 1st. Please contact us if you observe winds
significantly deviating from the recreational forecast.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.
&&
$$
WHAT HAS CHANGED...Duell
DISCUSSION...Langbauer/Duell
AVIATION...Boyd
EQUIPMENT...NWS BTV
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