178
FXUS61 KBTV 231130
AFDBTV
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
630 AM EST Mon Feb 23 2026
.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
As of 153 AM EST Monday...
Snowfall amounts have decreased across the region, so the Winter
Weather Advisory has been cancelled.
&&
.KEY MESSAGES...
As of 624 AM EST Monday...
1. A strong nor`easter will bring snowfall and breezy
conditions to the region, with the greatest snowfall amounts
expected across southern and central Vermont.
2. Cold weather is expected Monday night through Tuesday night.
With the combination of lingering strong northwest gusts, wind
chills of -5 to -15 are possible over northern New York through
Tuesday afternoon.
3. A clipper type system is expected early Wednesday into early
Thursday. Snow will be possible during Wednesday`s commutes.
4. Inland runner system track appears to be clustering
southwards. Precipitation chances are starting to decrease over our
northern tier.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
As of 153 AM EST Monday...
KEY MESSAGE 1: The ongoing Nor`easter continues to bring heavy snow
and blizzard conditions to southern New England, while our region
remains on the northern periphery of the system. Compared to the
previous forecasts, snowfall amounts have decreased with a tighter
snowfall gradient, with about 2 to 4 inches of snow expected across
south central Vermont, with increasing snow totals as you head
towards the Massachusetts border. Given the lower snowfall amounts,
the Winter Weather Advisory has been cancelled. As of now, the bulk
of the snowfall looks to fall this morning, before gradually winding
down this afternoon and evening as the coastal low pulls away. In
addition to the snowfall, gusty winds are also expected with this
system, with gusts in the 25 to 35 mph range increasingly likely
across southern Vermont, peaking around the early afternoon with
even higher gusts possible in the higher terrain. These winds could
lead to blowing snow, making for hazardous travel conditions and
reduced visibilities, especially in any mountain passes, so be sure
be alert and use caution if traveling through central and southern
Vermont on Monday.
KEY MESSAGE 2: As the coastal low pulls northeastward towards the
Canadian Maritimes, cold conditions will move into the region.
Overnight low temperatures look to drop into the single digits above
and below zero across northern New York, while Vermont remains a but
warmer in the single digits and teens. These cold temperatures
combined with brisk northwesterly winds will make for wind chills
in the -5 to -15 range across northern New York, with colder
conditions possible at higher elevations. The Champlain Valley and
rest of Vermont is likely to remain a bit warmer, as the core of
coldest air doesn`t arrive in Vermont until midday and will struggle
to make it past the mountains. Highs on Tuesday will creep into the
teens over northern New York and far northern Vermont, while the
central/southern Champlain Valley and Upper Valley warm into the
20s. In addition to the cold temperatures, some additional light
upslope snow showers will be possible night into Tuesday morning due
to some wrap around moisture, but any accumulations look to be at
this time. Temperatures Tuesday night will continue to be on the
cold side, with forecast low temperatures in the single digits,
however lighter winds and increasing cloud cover will play a role in
actual temperatures overnight.
KEY MESSAGE 3: During the pre-dawn hours Tuesday night and Wednesday, a
weak warm front will shift east across the area as a decaying
clipper low tracks across the Canadian border and Great Lakes
region. This is will bring light, powdery snow of a few tenths to
maybe an inch. After that clears, we`ll see our initially cool
single digits start to climb. Shallow warm advection will warm most
of the region into the upper 20s to mid 30s. However, above freezing
air is confined to the lowest 500 feet of the atmosphere. In the
"warm sector" of the clipper, marginally favorable low-level lapse
rates of 7 C/km with the cool conditions aloft should result in
roughly 100 J/kg of CAPE, Wednesday afternoon. A prefrontal trough
will move across the region by evening. This should initiate some
convective snow showers. Winds aloft are lacking, but a few embedded
moderate snow showers may take place Wednesday evening due to
marginal instability and the weak trough. After this round of
activity, one last occluded boundary will shift east as the upper
trough departs the region. Increasingly dry air will likely limit
this last batch of snow to western slopes. All together, none of
these round of precipitation will produce much snow. About 0.5-2.0",
and 3-4" at mountain tops is the general expectation. This likely
won`t warrant headlines, but we`ll monitor Wednesday evening
activity for any possible travel impacts.
KEY MESSAGE 4: The system expected for Thursday night into Saturday is
becoming less likely. A sizable number of ensembles and other
guidance that originally had this feature are abandoning ship for a
lower amplitude pattern that prevents the low from deepening
substantially. Without a deep low, flow will be more zonal, and we
won`t tap into any moisture as the shortwave zooms east. The
forecast still highlights a 30-50% chance of precipitation, but if
trends continue, expect that number to decrease. Next on the docket,
a powerful northern stream system will descend across central Canada
on Saturday with the potential for a sharp push of warm air. Winter
lovers need not fear, for as quickly as things heat up, we`ll see
cold air sweep southeast early next week.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Through 12Z Tuesday...Light snow is present across southern
Vermont. Snow has reached KRUT at times, but visibility
restrictions in snow has been limited. Some snow is possible
through about 20z at KMPV or KRUT as strong coastal low ambles
farther away, but the trend has been for less impact. So the
main focus is LLWS, mainly across KRUT, KMPV, and KEFK as
northeast to north winds of 35-40 knots at 2000 ft agl persist.
While surface winds are strongest about 14z to 00z at 7 to 14
knots sustained with gusts 16 to 25 knots, LLWS will be more
limited. After 06z, these winds aloft will begin to shift east,
and surface winds will also subside. Light mountain snow is
expected at KSLK about 00z to 07z as some low-level moisture
shifts east. Blocked flow may allow some of these showers to
reach favored northwestern foothills near KEFK or KBTV, with
PROB30s noted. Ceilings will trend towards 2500-5000 ft agl
after 00z.
Outlook...
Tuesday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday Night: VFR. Chance SN.
Wednesday: Mainly MVFR and IFR, with areas VFR possible. Definite
SN.
Wednesday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance SN.
Thursday: VFR. Slight chance SN.
Thursday Night: VFR. Chance SN.
Friday: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Slight chance SN.
&&
.EQUIPMENT...
The KMPV ASOS has suffered a communications failure. The issue
has been diagnosed, but there is currently no estimated time of
return to service. Terminal Aerodrome Forecasts will continue,
but amendments to those forecasts will be suspended.
NOAA Weather Radio station WXM-44, transmitting from Mt.
Ascutney, Vermont, on frequency 162.475 MHz is non- operational
at this time. NWS technicians have diagnosed the problem, but
repairs will likely not be able to occur for quite some time due
to circumstances beyond our control. Therefore, the time of
return to service is currently unknown. The following NOAA
Weather Radio transmitters may be able to provide service during
this outage: WWG 50 from Burke Mtn, VT at 162.425 MHz and WNG
546 from Hanover, NH at 162.525 MHz.
The Colchester Reef meteorological station is out of service.
This site is not serviced by the NWS and there isn`t an
estimated return to service at present. Please contact us if you
observe winds significantly deviating from the recreational
forecast.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.
&&
$$
WHAT HAS CHANGED...Kremer
DISCUSSION...Haynes/Kremer
AVIATION...Haynes
EQUIPMENT...NWS BTV
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