042
FXUS61 KBTV 180019
AFDBTV
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
719 PM EST Tue Feb 17 2026
.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
As of 140 PM EST Tuesday...
Confidence in no snow for most of the forecast area on Wednesday and
Wednesday night has increased. Southernmost areas still may see
light to occasionally moderate snow during this period.
&&
.KEY MESSAGES...
As of 140 PM EST Tuesday...
1. Mainly dry and colder conditions will return on Wednesday as
a low pressure area to our south produces light snow in southern
Vermont.
2. Low pressure system tracks from the Great Lakes area then
north of our region bringing snow to our forecast area Friday into
Friday night.
3. Seasonable weekend conditions expected with additional
chances of precipitation. Turning cold to start next week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
As of 140 PM EST Tuesday...
KEY MESSAGE 1: Unfortunately for snow lovers, the midweek period looks
definitely dry in nearly all of our region following a weak surface
cold front that slides through tonight. Aside from a few
inconsequential snow showers in north central and northeastern
Vermont, this front will primarily serve to shift winds from
southerly to northerly, opening the door for much drier air to push
into the area. This surface boundary is related to another upper
level low diving southeastward in eastern Canada. This system,
currently near Hudson Bay, seems to be timed poorly relative to the
incoming frontal wave for Wednesday, such that the west side of the
trough acts as a block for moisture. The location of this wall
through the 12Z model suite has come into better agreement, largely
with a consensus in precipitation similar to the HRRR/GFS. As such,
forecaster confidence increased to cut back precipitation chances
and amounts more substantially across most of northern New York and
northern Vermont. Far southern Vermont will still see steady light
to moderate snowfall (a Winter Weather Advisory will be in
effect in Bennington and Windham counties), and sharply lower
amounts are expected moving northward through Rutland and
Windsor counties; greatest potential for up to a few inches of
snow appear to be right near the border, such as along Route 7
south of Wallingford.
At this point, the deterministic (single value) forecasts should be
pretty close to what occurs for snowfall, as probabilistic data has
shifted southward in the aggregate, such that a northward jog
of snowfall looks unlikely at this point. There are still
southern outlier solutions that even totally miss Rutland and
Windsor counties. This southern scenario is reflected in modest
decreases in PoPs in these areas, where we do expect at least
some snowfall. The most northerly push of precipitation may
occur in the late afternoon/evening hours when precipitation
rates could briefly push 0.05"/hour (0.5"/hour snowfall rate
with snow to liquid ratios averaging 10-12:1). This will lead
to a period of difficult travel with roads becoming snow covered
and slick, in a relatively localized area in southern portions
of Vermont. Precipitation chances will taper off tomorrow night
as both mid level deformation and frontogenesis depart to the
east/southeast. Temperatures and dew points will further lower
through Wednesday afternoon and night with modest low level cold
air advection; temperatures will likely fall back into the
teens overnight for most locations after peaking in the upper
20s to low 30s during the day.
KEY MESSAGE 2: Confidence is increasing that we`ll be impacted by a
large vertically stacked low pressure system which will weaken as it
tracks eastward from the Great Lakes region. Snow will lift into our
forecast area from the southwest by Friday afternoon, with a
possibility of some mixed precipitation before all precipitation
changes to snow and continues into the overnight. The low pressure
center stretches out and energy transfers to a secondary low
tracking along the New England coast on Friday night. Snow will
continue into Friday night, before ending as wrap around snow
showers on Saturday. At this time it looks like we will have about a
quarter of an inch to half an inch of QPF with this storm system. At
this time looks like we can expect about 3 to 6 inches of snowfall
potentially, with the heaviest snow between 1 pm Friday and 1 am
Saturday. Will continue to monitor this storm system as we get
closer to Friday and Friday night and update forecast as things
change.
KEY MESSAGE 3: Temperatures will be near normal this weekend but still
cold enough to support some winter precipitation through wet-bulbing
and dynamical cooling processes. Highs will be near 30, with
overnight lows in the teens; slightly warmer temperatures in
southern Vermont. Ensemble guidance continues to show some members
depicting a potentially impactful coastal system Sunday into Monday.
Overall ensemble member timing and track guidance still varies
widely, but a few ensemble members draw the coastal system near
Benchmark. Current NBM probabilistic guidance shows widespread 20-
30% chance of 4 or more inches of snow across central and southern
Vermont. The most likely solution right now keeps the system to our
south with the most overrunning precipitation across southern New
England, mainly over south and east Massachusetts. Confidence is
still low for any precipitation across our area, but this will be
something to monitor over the next several days. A digging trough
behind the coastal system will drop quite south into parts of the
Carolinas. This will return much of the region into a brief cold
pattern to start next week with a 50-70% chance for highs on Tuesday
to only reach 20F. This supported by a near 100% GEFS chance for
850mb temperatures to be less than -10F, a 40-60% for 850mb
temperatures to be less than -20F. While this is not expected to be
a cold outbreak by any means, it will be a change from the
seasonable weather we will have this week.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Through 00Z Thursday...There is a mix of IFR to VFR across
northern New York and Vermont as lingering low level moisture
remains. However, satellite imagery shows some erosion of the
cloud shield as drier air is moving in as winds aloft turn
westerly. For the Champlain Valley, compressional warming is
supporting cloud erosion and will likely improve conditions
overnight - can`t completely rule out some MVFR cigs at times
for BTV, but the general trend will be for improving conditions.
By 12Z flow will be turning more northwesterly at the SFC
allowing for a more rapid transition to VFR. SFC winds will keep
turning through the day becoming more out of the north-northeast
as high pressure builds southeastward out of Canada.
Outlook...
Wednesday Night: VFR. Chance SN.
Thursday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Thursday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Friday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR and IFR possible. Definite
SN, Definite RA.
Friday Night: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Likely SN.
Saturday: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. Chance SN.
Saturday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SN.
Sunday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SN.
&&
.EQUIPMENT...
The KMPV ASOS has suffered a communications failure. The issue
has been diagnosed, but there is currently no estimated time of
return to service. Terminal Aerodrome Forecasts will continue,
but amendments to those forecasts will be suspended.
NOAA Weather Radio station WXM-44, transmitting from Mt.
Ascutney, Vermont, on frequency 162.475 MHz is non- operational
at this time. NWS technicians have diagnosed the problem, but
repairs will likely not be able to occur for quite some time due
to circumstances beyond our control. Therefore, the time of
return to service is currently unknown. The following NOAA
Weather Radio transmitters may be able to provide service during
this outage: WWG 50 from Burke Mtn, VT at 162.425 MHz and WNG
546 from Hanover, NH at 162.525 MHz.
The Colchester Reef meteorological station is out of service.
This site is not serviced by the NWS and there isn`t an
estimated return to service at present. Please contact us if you
observe winds significantly deviating from the recreational
forecast.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.
&&
$$
WHAT HAS CHANGED...Kutikoff
DISCUSSION...Neiles/Danzig/Kutikoff
AVIATION...Boyd
EQUIPMENT...NWS BTV
|
