FXUS61 KBTV 140546
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
146 AM EDT Sat Oct 14 2017
Clouds will be on the increase tonight and Saturday as a cold
front slowly moves toward the region. There may be a few showers
over northern New York and northern Vermont. A better chance for
showers will occur over northern areas Saturday night as the
from drops closer to the region. The front quickly lifts north
Sunday morning and most of the area will experience breezy and
warm conditions with temperatures 15 to 20 degrees above normal
for this time of year. Eventually a line of showers will move
across northern New York Sunday afternoon and during the evening
hours across Vermont. Gusty winds will also accompany the
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 11 AM THIS MORNING/...
As of 951 PM EDT Friday...Latest IR/WV satellite shows clouds
continuing to thicken and move into the North Country as the
ridge continues to flatten out ahead of an advancing cold front.
The previous forecast had all of this well covered and no
changes were needed.
Previous discussion...Clouds will gradually increase across the
area tonight as southwest flow develops and helps advect clouds
into the region from western New York and the mid- Atlantic
states. No concerns for frost as low temperatures will not be as
cold as the last couple of night. There is a front to our
northwest and maybe we see a few showers overnight across the
far northern portions of New York and Vermont. The same can be
said for Saturday as frontal boundary remains northwest of the
region. This will keep forcing at a minimum but cannot rule out
the potential for a few showers...again mainly over the far
northern portions of New York and Vermont. Above normal
temperatures are expected Saturday with highs generally in the
.SHORT TERM /11 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 323 PM EDT Friday...Frontal boundary sags far enough
south Saturday night where precipitation chances should increase
over the area...again especially over northern New York and the
northern third of Vermont. However...during the overnight hours
boundary lifts quickly northward and area winds up in the warm
sector on Sunday. An upper level trough of low pressure will be
moving toward the region on Sunday. This feature will strengthen
the low level flow from the southwest and we should experience
breezy conditions with wind gusts in the 30 to 40 mph range
ahead of an approaching cold front. A line of showers will be
closely tied to the front and upper trough and this line will be
moving rather quickly across the area Sunday afternoon in
northern New York and late day early evening in Vermont. Could
also see some enhanced wind gusts with the line and will have to
monitor this situation. Highs will be in the 70s...which will
be on the order of 15 to 20 degrees above normal. Front moves
through Sunday night and thus looking at the areal coverage of
showers decreasing from west to east. Cold air advection will
kick in late Sunday night and allow for a return to seasonal
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 323 PM EDT Friday...Overall looking at a relatively quiet
period. Temperatures will be at or below seasonal normals as
flow aloft will generally be from the west and northwest. Upper
trough moves across eastern Canada on Tuesday and we could see a
few showers over the northern areas. High pressure builds in
Wednesday and Thursday for drier weather along with a gradual
.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Through 00Z Sunday...VFR conditions will give way to MVFR
ceilings for SLK/MSS/MPV/RUT as clouds advect into the North
Country, while BTV/PBG will remain VFR throughout the period.
Frontal boundary over Northern NY will bring some isolated
showers around SLK/MSS through mid morning. After this front
waves north before cold front begins to move in from the west
bringing more widespread showers for both stations after 00Z.
Expect continued southerly winds 10-15 knots weakening for
during the daytime back to 5-10 knots.
Sunday: VFR. Windy with gusts to 32 kts. Chance SHRA.
Sunday Night: VFR. Windy with gusts to 31 kts. Chance SHRA.
Monday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Monday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday: VFR. Slight Chance SHRA.
Tuesday Night: VFR. Slight Chance SHRA.
Wednesday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
As of 323 pm EDT Friday...A lake wind advisory continues
tonight with winds 15 to 25 knots and gusts to 30 knots through
midnight. This will maintain choppy conditions across the
lake...especially over the northern areas. Winds will taper off
a bit on Saturday...but even stronger south winds are expected
on Sunday with 20 to 30 knot winds producing 3 to 5 foot waves
and very choppy conditions.