000
FXUS61 KBTV 170903
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
503 AM EDT Thu Aug 17 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure over the area today will bring a good deal of
sunshine to the area with high temperatures in the 70s to around
80. A warm front will approach the region later tonight from the
southwest and enhance the potential for showers and a few
thunderstorms across the area...especially over northern New
York. Showers and a few thunderstorms will exist over the entire
area from time to time...with the potential for some stronger
storms over northern New York late in the day on Friday. Showers
and storms will taper off Friday night...but scattered showers
will exist over the area on Saturday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 503 AM EDT Thursday...Any fog will burn off quickly this
morning and clouds over the northeast kingdom of Vermont will
exit the region as well. The remainder of the day will just see
high cloudiness with highs in the 70s to around 80 and no
precipitation.

For tonight...a well defined warm front will move into the
region from the southwest and enhance the threat of showers and
embedded thunderstorms across northern New York after midnight.
Sharp dew point gradient clearly defines the front and with
noticeable warm air advection at 850 mb...showers should be
likely with the front. Sharp gradient of Showalter Index values
moves into northern New York after midnight and this will
enhance the potential for elevated convection.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 503 AM EDT Thursday...Showers and a few thunderstorms
will be ongoing across much of the area Friday morning as warm
front lifts northeast across the region. Areal coverage of the
showers should decrease around midday as warm front lifts north
of the border. Composite analysis shows northern New York
getting into the warm sector and instability should develop with
highs in the 70s and dew points in the 65 to 70 degree range.
At the same time deep layer shear will be increasing over the
top of the instability and would expect the potential for
thunderstorms to develop in advance of the approaching cold
front. Will have to keep an eye on this situation because if
sufficient instability develops storms may get organized enough
to produce gusty winds...hail... and heavy downpours. Mid level
lapse rates are not impressive and thus will need surface
heating to help drive the development of instability. Best
instability may be across central and southeast New York where
shear is a bit weaker. Precipitable water values in this area
will be around 2 inches as well. Clouds and showers over Vermont
on Friday will keep highs in the upper 60s to mid 70s...but
over northern New York highs will be in the 70s to around 80.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 503 AM EDT Thursday...Mainly dry weather is expected from
Saturday night through Tuesday morning. Cold air advection
continues Saturday night behind departing surface cold front
that crossed the area Friday night. Ridge of surface high
pressure centered over Ohio river valley will build into our
region and remain through early Tuesday. An upper level trough
will push across our forecast area Saturday night and Sunday.
Looks like good eclipse viewing weather for Monday afternoon.
Southwest flow will develop Tuesday as surface ridge moves East
of the region, this flow will also advect some much warmer air
into the North Country. A low pressure system will pass from the
Northern Great Lakes area on Tuesday Northeastward into Central
Quebec on Wednesday. Best chance for rain showers will be
Tuesday night into Wednesday with surface cold frontal passage.
Upper level trough will lag behind a bit, crossing our area
Thursday night into Friday. Overall the work week looks
unsettled.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Through 06Z Friday...VFR conditions expected for much of the
area and for much of the period as only expecting some mid and
high level clouds across the area...especially this afternoon
and tonight. There will be a small window of IFR conditions at
KSLK and KMPV between 09z and 12z due to low clouds and fog.
Winds will generally be under 10 knots through the period.

Outlook...

Friday: VFR/MVFR. Likely SHRA...Slight Chance TSRA.
Friday Night: VFR. Likely SHRA...Slight Chance TSRA.
Saturday: VFR. Chance SHRA...Slight Chance TSRA.
Saturday Night: VFR. Slight Chance SHRA.
Sunday: VFR. Slight Chance SHRA.
Sunday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Monday: VFR. NO SIG WX.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Evenson
NEAR TERM...Evenson
SHORT TERM...Evenson
LONG TERM...Neiles
AVIATION...Evenson