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  Thursday March 28, 2024

 

NWS Area Forecast Discussion


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000
FXUS61 KBTV 221419
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
1019 AM EDT Fri Mar 22 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Following a cold and tranquil day, a significant late season
winter storm will arrive tonight. Heavy and wet snow, along
with a wintry mix across southern portions of Vermont, is
expected. Behind the storm, one more cold day is expected
Sunday before temperatures moderate to near or slightly above
normal. Precipitation chances return midweek.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
As of 1019 AM EDT Friday...Only minor adjustments made to the
forecast for today as cloud cover is advancing a little ahead of
schedule, and temps warming a bit faster than the previous
forecast had. Otherwise, looking upstream, snow has begun to
fall on the western end of Lake Ontario which is perhaps 1-2hrs
ahead of schedule as well. May need to adjust PoPs up across
western portions of the forecast area this afternoon, but we`ll
leave that for the next update.

Previous Discussion...

* Winter Storm Warnings are now in effect for all of northern
  Vermont and northern New York, except in the St. Lawrence
  Valley where a Winter Weather Advisory is in effect
* Storm total snowfall has increased, with expected amounts
  mainly in the 9" to 16" range.
* Most significant impacts may be related to snow load on tree
  limbs as snow may be heavy and wet.

Potential biggest snowstorm of the "winter" season will begin
tonight and continue through Saturday evening in much of the
region. That being said, it remains a challenging forecast due
to temperatures, snow ratios, and precipitation type, not to
mention precipitation amounts. So some surprises and shifts in
the forecast are to be expected. However, confidence in 7+
inches in the warned area is rather high. Note that on the
western (less precipitation) and southern (greater mixed
precipitation) edges, the forecast certainty is a bit lower.

Currently on the weather map we have a ridge of high pressure over
the eastern Great Lakes which will gradually shift eastward into our
region and weaken slightly. At the same time, a vigorous wave over
the Midwest helping to produce thunderstorms in eastern Nebraska
will eject eastward in a broad longwave trough, with a surface
boundary intensifying due to increasing temperature differences on
either side of the front. This front will shift towards our region
by tonight with a swath of steady snow on its cold side. As high
pressure settles in over southern Quebec, promoting a light
north/northeast surface wind tonight, we will retain our cold air
mass and should see all snow as increasing lift and moisture
overcomes the initially very dry low level air.

Snow will generally overspread the area from southwest to northeast
between 8 PM and midnight in northern New York and 1 AM to 4 AM in
Vermont. By 5 AM intensity of snow should be exceeding 1" per hour
in much of the region, especially in a swath from the Adirondacks
into central Vermont. Through 8 AM, 3 to 6 inches of moderately wet
snow should be common across the area. Thereafter, while heavy
snow continues over much of the region, a push of warmer air
aloft will surge into southern Vermont. As a result, a shallow
layer of above freezing air will likely make it into our region,
with best chances in Rutland, Windsor, and Orange counties. As
such, heavy snow will begin to mix with and change to sleet. A
lot of model guidance suggests the warm layer deepens enough to
change precipitation to freezing rain as well, but confidence in
this happening is relatively low. Think that if warming does
become so pronounced that surface temperatures would likely
quickly rise above 32 as well. That being said, have kept a mix
of sleet and freezing rain in portions of the aforementioned
counties and even slightly farther north as these types of
systems are difficult to pin down the extent of the warm nose.

By Saturday evening we expect all snow again as low level flow
turns northerly across the region with the focus turning to a
coastal low pressure area. This is where the forecast gets more
complicated, as additional, very heavy snow is possible in
southeastern areas if this low tracks far enough west. If this
does not materialize, the event could be winding down all
together areawide by 8 PM. The current forecast snow amounts
hedge between the two extremes.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 451 AM EDT Friday...Snow will quickly wind down Saturday night
as low pressure moves away to the east. Much drier air will follow,
ending the snow from west to east, and pretty much over everywhere
by midnight or so. The latter half of the weekend will be much
quieter as high pressure starts to build over the region. We`ll be
under cold air advection, but Sunday will feature ample sunshine.
Still, highs will only reach into the 30s, and winds will remain on
the brisk side. Overnight lows, both Saturday and Sunday nights,
will be well below normal, generally +5 to +15F.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 451 AM EDT Friday...High pressure will slowly build across the
region through the first part of the week, keeping the weather
quiet. Temperatures will warm as we head into mid week, with highs
near to above normal by Tuesday. Uncertainty grows thereafter as the
weather pattern becomes more unsettled, but details differ between
model solutions. Low pressure will move by well to our west,
dragging its attendant frontal boundary and associated rain/snow
showers across our area Wednesday into Wednesday night. What happens
toward late week is even more in question, as some model guidance
develops another low along the front and lifts it northward along
the East Coast, while other solutions allow brief ridging to occur
before another weaker low shifts eastward from the Midwest. Have
stayed close to the NBM for much of next week given these model
differences, resulting in chances for showers most days, along with
near normal temperatures.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Through 12Z Saturday...A relatively quiet period of weather is
expected through at least 00Z, then steady snow will overspread
the airspace, reaching MSS and SLK by 06Z and other locations
near that time or just after resulting in IFR visibilities with
snow causing visibilities to settle into a mile or lower. Aside
from localized fog at SLK at this time, skies are clear with
only some high clouds expected to be present today, gradually
lowering/thickening before precipitation arrives.

Northwest winds continue to decrease although lingering gusts
are present at EFK and MPV this morning. Winds otherwise will be
light and variable, and generally northeasterly after 00Z while
remaining under 10 knots.

Outlook...

Saturday: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Definite SN,
Definite FZRA.
Saturday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance SN.
Sunday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Sunday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Monday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Monday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday: VFR. NO SIG WX.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
The ASOS at KMPV, Knapp State Airport in Berlin, remains down
to an FAA comms line issue. Time of return to service is
unknown at this time.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...Winter Storm Warning from 8 PM this evening to 2 AM EDT Sunday
     for VTZ001>011-016>021.
NY...Winter Weather Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 4 PM EDT
     Saturday for NYZ026-027-087.
     Winter Storm Warning from 8 PM this evening to 2 AM EDT Sunday
     for NYZ028>031-034-035.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Kutikoff
NEAR TERM...Kutikoff/Lahiff
SHORT TERM...Hastings
LONG TERM...Hastings
AVIATION...Kutikoff
EQUIPMENT...Hastings


 
 
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