000
FXUS61 KBTV 110216
AFDBTV
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
1016 PM EDT Sat Apr 10 2021
.SYNOPSIS...
A weak occluded front will bring increased cloud cover and chances
for rain to portions of northern New York and southern Vermont on
Sunday. However, most locations are expected to remain dry with
cooler temperatures as a backdoor cold front approaches from the
northeast. Scattered showers will remain possible through Tuesday
but it appears we are in for another quiet weak of weather with high
pressure once again building back across the region. Temperatures
won`t be quite as warm next week as they were this week with high
temperatures each afternoon in the upper 50s to lower 60s.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 1012 PM EDT Saturday...Water vapor this evening is showing
mid/upper lvl moisture advecting into our fa, but radar
indicates rain actually reaching the ground is acrs the Ohio
Valley into Western PA. Clouds wl continue to advance northeast
acrs our fa overnight into Sunday, making for a challenging temp
fcst. Have updated to lower SLK low, as crnt obs of 49F is only
a couple degrees away from overnight low, otherwise, bumped CPV
upward several degrees to match crnt trends. Rest of fcst in
good shape with dry conditions prevailing. The million dollar
question for Sunday wl be northern extend of rain showers. Crnt
fcst mainly south of a Malone to Middlebury to White River
Junction line looks reasonable, based on latest 00z guidance.
Previous discussion below:
Afternoon high temperatures have struggled compared to
yesterday as cloud cover associated with a weak deformation band
stunted heating during the mid to late morning hours.
Nevertheless, with the thermal ridge building overhead,
temperatures have still warmed into the upper 60s to mid 70s
with some places likely to hit the upper 70 before the sun
begins to set. Fair weather cumulus has been abundant across the
higher terrain given dewpoints in the upper 40s to lower 50s
and the aforementioned warmer temperatures. These should begin
to dissipate as we diurnal heating ceases this evening and any
shallow instability dissipates. The overnight hours will remain
quiet as subsidence aloft associated with the longwave ridge
will continue to keep conditions dry and largely cloud free.
During the morning hours on Sunday, a backdoor cold front will
approach from the northeast. The front will allow for some maritime
air to move into eastern Vermont (east of the Green Mountains) and
likely get trapped there for much of the day. This should yield
quite the temperature spread across the region with the St. Lawrence
Valley likely in the lower 70s while the Connecticut River Valley
could only warm into the mid to upper 50s. At the same time, an
occluded front will try it`s hardest to move into the North Country
but it looks like it`s efforts will be in vain as the backdoor cold
front and upper level ridge over much of Vermont will likely keep
the front generally south of the area. Nevertheless, it looks like
extreme southern portions of the St. Lawrence Valley could see a
quarter to a third of an inch with much of southern Vermont seeing a
tenth of an inch or less of rain. For central and northern Vermont,
little to no rainfall is expected. The backdoor cold front
ultimately wins out with precipitation pivoting across central New
York before ultimately sinking back to the southeast. Overall, no
impacts are expected from the occluded front with most locations not
expected to receive a much needed rainfall.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
As of 251 PM EDT Saturday...Trends in the data suggest upstream upper
low will want to trend more south and east instead of due east
during the Monday through Monday night time period. This should help
to limit the precipitation potential over the area, with parts of
northern New York and southern Vermont, generally seeing
probabilities in the 15 to 30 percent range. Precipitation amounts
will generally be less than a tenth of an inch. Over the remainder
of the area dry weather is expected. Look for a bit more cloud cover
during the period. Highs on Monday will be in the mid 50s to lower
60s and lows Monday night in the upper 30s to mid 40s.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 251 PM EDT Saturday...The upper low discussed in the short term
period will continue on its southeast trajectory and continue to
focus the best precipitation threat over parts of northern New York
and the southern half of Vermont. Will continue the idea of slight
chance to chance precipitation probabilities with most locations
picking up less than a quarter inch of rain. Upper ridge builds into
the region later on Wednesday and persists over the area right
through the end of the week. This will bring dry weather to the
region and a continuation of above normal temperatures with highs
generally about 10 degrees above normal for this time of year.
&&
.AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Through 00Z Monday...Mainly VFR with high clouds at or above
15000ft agl for the most part. Tricky forecast for wind
direction, with several competing influences for the next 12
hours. Towards 12Z, a transition towards east to southeast
winds will be likely, and after 15Z wind speeds increase to 7 to
12 knots, gusting at KRUT up to 20 knots at times. For KPBG and
KMPV, low-level stratus should develop off east flow, bringing
ceilings towards 1500-2500ft AGL between 11Z-14Z. Beyond 18Z,
frontal system approaches from the southwest, but will be slow
to move into our region with scattered shower activity and
ceilings 4000-5000ft AGL. VCSH mentioned at KMSS, KSLK, and KRUT
for this. The front continues to impact the region beyond 00Z
Monday.
Outlook...
Sunday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA.
Monday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight chance SHRA.
Monday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight chance
SHRA.
Tuesday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight chance
SHRA.
Tuesday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight
chance SHRA.
Wednesday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Slight chance
SHRA.
Wednesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Thursday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Clay
NEAR TERM...Clay/Taber
SHORT TERM...Evenson
LONG TERM...Evenson
AVIATION...Haynes
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