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  Tuesday April 13, 2021

 

NWS Area Forecast Discussion


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255
FXUS61 KBTV 130813
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
413 AM EDT Tue Apr 13 2021

.SYNOPSIS...
Quiet weather is expected to continue through Wednesday as we remain
trapped between two upper level lows. Temperatures will remain
seasonal, albeit above normal, with highs in the 60s and lows in the
30s and 40s. The upper level low to our west will move toward the
North Country on Thursday which will bring the next chance of rain,
and possibly mountain snow, to the region. Precipitation chances
will continue into early this weekend before high pressure builds
back across the region.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 353 AM EDT Tuesday...The blocking pattern will persist through
the near term, keeping conditions mainly dry across the North
Country. Other than a few early morning showers across the southern
St Lawrence Valley, today and tonight will feature a mix of sun and
clouds along with light winds. Highs this afternoon will be in the
lower to mid 60s, followed by overnight lows in the mid 30s to mid
40s. We finally start to transition out of this pattern on Wednesday
as the upper low pressure that`s been positioned to our west starts
to shift eastward. Moisture will begin to increase as the weak flow
turns more west-southwest ahead of this feature. Lower levels will
be fairly dry under ample mixing and forcing will be quite limited,
but the increasing moisture aloft along with daytime heating and
orographic effects may be enough to allow a few showers to develop
Wednesday afternoon, mainly over the High Peaks of the Adirondacks
and the southern Greens. Coverage will be limited, so expect most
locations will remain dry. Highs will be similar to today, in the
lower to mid 60s, with a few spots approaching 70.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
As of 413 AM EDT Tuesday...Seeing a little better consensus in the
00Z NWP model suite in regard to the upcoming pattern for the middle
to end of the week where the main question continues to be how/when
upstream blocking devolves and where upper level low pressure over
the upper Midwest and a developing coastal low track and interact.
The general idea brought forth this morning is that the closed upper
level low will shift into the eastern Great Lakes Thursday and mid-
Atlantic states Friday with additional southern stream energy
developing a coastal low that will track into southern New England
Thursday night into Friday. Similar to what has transpired over the
past few days, a sharp north/south precipitation gradient will
likely setup across the northeast and will largely depend on the
upper level low track. Have begun to introduce some low likely PoPs
to central/southern zones where the best chance at precipitation
looks to be at this time from early Thursday through Friday. Ptype
will unfortunately come into play Thursday night into Friday with
soundings supporting snow levels down to around 1500 feet and the
potential for some decent higher elevation snow across the southern
Greens. Temps through the period remain largely normal or above,
with Friday the odd day out below normal in the 40s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 413 AM EDT Tuesday...Drier conditions generally ensue for the
upcoming weekend following the exit of the aforementioned low
pressure system Friday night. Northerly flow on the backside of the
low will keep temps right around normal with highs in the low/mid
50s under mostly cloudy skies Saturday, with variable cloudiness and
perhaps a few passing showers Sunday as the upper level flow trends
more zonal and a weak shortwave traverses the area.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Through 06Z Wednesday...Mainly VFR, though some low-level
moisture may get trapped below mountain ridges in light flow,
with FEW to SCT at 2000-2500ft AGL mentioned at a number of
terminals from about 06Z-12Z. The exception is KSLK which is now
reporting broken ceilings at 2800 ft, which will persist through
12z. However, think KSLK is most likely to see MVFR ceilings
from a BKN025 deck. After 12z, expect all sites to continue with
scattered clouds 2500-5000 ft. Winds remain fairly light
through daybreak and mainly influenced by terrain. So,
southeasterly winds will develop overnight at KRUT with
northeast winds at KMSS. After 14Z, winds will become a bit more
northeast to north- northwest with speeds 5 to 10 knots.

Outlook...

Wednesday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Thursday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance RA.
Thursday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance RA.
Friday: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Chance RA.
Friday Night: Mainly MVFR, with areas IFR possible. Slight chance
SHRA.
Saturday: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. NO SIG WX.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Hastings
NEAR TERM...Hastings
SHORT TERM...Lahiff
LONG TERM...Lahiff
AVIATION...Hastings



 
 
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