920
FXUS61 KBTV 160659
AFDBTV
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
259 AM EDT Thu Oct 16 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
Brisk northerly flow will continue today as the region stays
sandwiched between high pressure to the west and a low pressure
system slow to depart to our east. As lower humidity coincides
with gustier winds during the daytime hours, fire weather
concerns will increase. A period of lighter winds and moderating
temperatures Friday into Saturday will be followed by sharp
warming and south winds on Sunday ahead of our next chance for
widespread rain by Monday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 213 AM EDT Thursday...Gusty northerly winds will be the
main weather concern today, having impacts on both Lake
Champlain and fire weather concerns. (See marine and fire
weather sections below.) Skies will be mostly sunny today, with
brisk northerly flow in place. A Special Weather Statement has
been issued for the central/southern portions of our region
coinciding with this risk of frequent wind gusts above 25 MPH.
Pressure gradient will relax enough overnight for some frost
formation. Have issued frost advisory for the Champlain valley,
though widespread frost is anticipated across the region as
minimum temperatures dip into the lower 20s to lower 30s,
warmest along Lake Champlain. Some areas may be cold enough for
freeze warning, but did not have the confidence for this at this
time. Maximum temperatures today will reach the upper 40s to
mid 50s, then a bit warmer on Friday with highs ranging from low
50s to mid 50s. Friday will not be as windy as today with
gradient relaxing as low moves further off the New England
coast.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 213 AM EDT Thursday...A large upper level ridge will
build over the region Friday night into Saturday. Flow will
become southerly as the ridge builds aloft and also at the
surface. Temperatures Friday night dip into the mid 20s to lower
30s with frost headlines possible once again. Warming trend on
Saturday with warm southerly flow in place will bring maximum
temperatures up to the upper 50s to lower 60s.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 213 AM EDT Thursday...A pattern change from the
persistent dryness looks increasingly likely heading into the
next week. High pressure will continue to edge eastward Saturday
night as winds shift to the south/southwest. A long wave trough
digging into the Great Lakes looks to become more amplified as
meridional flow becomes accelerated under a developing 250mb
jet. Amplification should lead to a strengthening low pressure
system following the departing ridge with a developing
associated low level jet. Southerly winds will be breezy to
gusty Sunday night ahead of the precipitation corridor,
especially in the Champlain Valley. Winds could gust as high as
30 mph on Lake Champlain, with 20 to 25 mph gusts in the
surrounding valley locations and ridge tops. Southerly flow will
also increase the moisture advection from the Gulf and Atlantic
favoring good chances for precipitation heading into Sunday.
When precipitation begins across northern New York will be
dependent on how long the ridging takes to depart the region.
All in all, rainfall should increase from west to east, from
northern New York to Vermont, over the course of Sunday into
Monday. Best chances for precipitation (70-80%) will be early
Monday morning across northern New York. Southern stream energy
may be able to provide enough energy for an isolated embedded
rumble of thunder in the St. Lawrence Valley, although CAPE
profiles are generally shallow. The deepening system will
occlude and pull to the northeast Tuesday afternoon with brief
ridging into Wednesday morning.
Good ensemble consensus points to a continued period of
precipitation chances through the remainder of the week with
another amplified long wave trough. Focus of precipitation in
the extended period may be directed more southeast to northwest
dependent on how far south southern stream energy dips with each
system, and whether the subsequent fronts catch up and can pull
offshore moisture back over the region. Unlike recent events
which have seen dry air limit precipitation amounts, the leading
system should be able to erode any dry air for the secondary
system by mid week for good chances at beneficial rainfall
(50-60%).
&&
.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Through 06Z Friday...High confidence in all terminals remaining
VFR through the TAF period. A middle cloud deck 4000-5000ft agl
will continue through the next few hours before the cloud deck
should lift with drier air filtering in. A few model soundings
suggest MPV/EFK could see a few hours near 12Z of periodic high
MVFR cigs 2500-3500 ft agl, however, probabilities are only
20-30%, however, did note the lower ceilings with a scattered
deck in the TAF. Future amendments or adjustments at the 12Z TAF
may be needed with new guidance and observations in the coming
hours. Otherwise, winds will be the main terminal impact through
the next 24 hours. Northerly winds will continue to be breezy 5
to 15 knots, increasing to 10 to 15 at most terminals. Gusts up
20 to 25 knots are possible at all terminals this afternoon as
a low level jet will sit over the region. Winds will be highest
Vermont, especially the Champlain Valley, less so in northern
New York. As a result of this low level jet, LLWS at MPV/RUT/EFK
will be present for the remainder of tonight as surface winds
have decoupled and trended towards light to calm near 5 knots.
Outlook...
Friday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Friday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Saturday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Saturday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
Sunday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
Sunday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance SHRA.
Monday: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. Likely SHRA.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Fire weather concerns will be heightened with maximum northerly
wind gusts up to around 30 mph in parts of Vermont. With only
light rain recently, fuels remain dry. While relative humidity
values will only be 30-40%, fire weather concerns and fire
spread will be heightened with the forecasted near critical wind
gusts. Wetting rain from a low pressure system passing from the
Great Lakes northward into Canada will overspread the area by
Sunday evening which will mitigate the fire weather concerns
heading into next week. Breezy southerly winds are expected
ahead of this rain on Sunday, especially in the Champlain
valley. Fire weather concerns will decrease with the wetting
rain Sunday evening.
&&
.MARINE...
A Lake Wind Advisory is in effect for Lake Champlain through
this evening. Northerly winds are leading to channeling effects
on Lake Champlain enhancing wind and wave conditions. Winds on
the broad lake are currently sustained 20 to 25 knots with
occasional gusts as high as 30 knots. Winds in the northern and
southern portions of the lake are not as gusty, but winds are
still sustained around 20 knots with potential gusts up to 25
knots. Waves will be generally 2 to 4 ft. Winds should generally
weaken this evening with occasional gusts to 25 knots still
possible later into this evening.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...Frost Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 9 AM EDT Friday for
VTZ001-002-005-009.
NY...Frost Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 9 AM EDT Friday for
NYZ028-035.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Neiles
NEAR TERM...Neiles
SHORT TERM...Neiles
LONG TERM...Danzig
AVIATION...Danzig
FIRE WEATHER...Neiles
MARINE...Neiles
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