841
FXUS61 KBTV 072349
AFDBTV
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
649 PM EST Wed Jan 7 2026
.SYNOPSIS...
Isolated to locally scattered flurries or drizzle this evening
and overnight will give way to a quiet and warm Thursday.
Continued warming into the 40s is expected by Friday afternoon
with rain in the forecast. Brief cooling on Friday night into
Saturday will result in another opportunity for a wintry mix by
Saturday night before another brief warm up on Sunday. A cold
front on Sunday evening will transition us back towards snow and
a cooler beginning to the the new work week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
As of 203 PM EST Wednesday...Temperatures have warmed into the upper
20s to mid 30s across the region, and dewpoints in the Champlain
Valley have even risen above 32. So we`ve been observing compaction
and melting of overnight snow with relatively little in additional
accumulation today. The main thing we`re keeping an eye on is the
loss of cloud ice later this evening. There may still be some
forcing within northwest flow and plenty of low-level in moisture in
place that we could see a batch of freezing drizzle late this
evening and overnight. Towards Thursday morning, moisture will
continue to thin out, and we should see any drizzle taper to high
terrain. A glaze is possible, but given that we`ve seen generally
improving road conditions, it is difficult to assess the level of
impacts, especially if freezing drizzle ends up being more limited
or if temperatures stay warmer. So will note a chance to slight
chance (~20-40%) and a glaze to couple hundredths of ice, but
leave things be until we start seeing whether this conditional
event unfolds.
As for the rest of Thursday, it should be quiet, with 30s across the
area, maybe even a spot 40. No precipitation is expected by Thursday
afternoon. After sunset, there`s a window of light winds and
relatively clear skies. We should initially radiate efficiently, but
increasing clouds and a switch to south flow after midnight will
begin a steady warming trend. Precipitation will likely hold off
until later, but a batch of moisture around 10000 ft will approach
from our west. Low-level dry air makes anything reaching the surface
questionable, but if anything does fall, some freezing rain or sleet
could take place in sheltered hollows.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
As of 129 PM EST Wednesday...The aforementioned mid-level moisture
will slide across Vermont during the morning hours. Again, any
precipitation will be conditional on moisture passing through a deep
dry layer near the surface, and so the forecast has minimized the
overall potential. Breezy and warming weather is expected throughout
the day. Temperatures will climb into the 40s, perhaps evening
ticking up past sunset. Rain will shift east as 50-55 kt southwest
flow allows for efficient moisture transport ahead of an ejecting
Great Lakes low. Rain will be fairly progressive as the system gets
absorbed into a larger cold front that slides southeast Friday
night. It seems to make enough progress that we should settle back
into the upper 20s to mid 30s, which will help slow melting. Liquid
precipitation appears fairly meager, with mainly 0.10-0.25" with
locally lower amounts in shadowed parts of the Champlain Valley, and
locally higher amounts in southern facing slopes.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 129 PM EST Wednesday...
Key Points:
* Another wintry mix in parts of the region is becoming more
likely for Saturday night into early Sunday
* Blustery, upslope snow showers Sunday night into
Monday
Hot on the tracks of our Friday system, another mature mid latitude
cyclone looks poised to impact the entire region Saturday night into
Sunday. The day Saturday looks to remain warm into the upper
30s to near 40, but model trends have been on the colder side
with the Friday cold front lingering south of the region. Cloudy
and a likely dreary day looks to be the theme for Saturday with
low level moisture lingering due to the frontal boundary
hovering about the region and marginal temperatures around the
mid 30s. Moisture advection increases late Saturday as an upper
low over the Great Lakes occludes with strengthening
amplification among the mid to upper levels. As this parent
system over the Great Lakes occludes a secondary weaker surface
low could develop over southeastern New England along the triple
point, drawing cooler northeast marine flow into locations east
of the Greens. This would lock in colder air at the onset of
the Saturday night event with a wintry mix looking increasingly
likely. Cold air damming coupled with overriding warm air
advection aloft at 925-850mb is a recipe for a wintry mix,
especially with surface trends towards cooler solutions.
Similarly, drainage winds across the northern St. Lawrence
Valley in places like Massena, New York, could also see the
potential for some wintry mix late Saturday into Sunday. It is
still too early to tell what precipitation types will fall out
of this system, but trends suggest increasingly likelihood of
some type of wintry mix at the onset with a transition to all
rain by daybreak Sunday. Winds will could also be impactful with
a strengthening 850mb jet to 50kts. Surface mixing as the
system moves eastward during the day Sunday could mix 30 to 40
MPH wind gusts to the surface across northern New York and the
Adirondacks. An inversion and ongoing precipitation could help
limit this mixing across Vermont, reducing the potential gusts.
With temperatures remaining above freezing Saturday and Sunday
with highs in the upper 30s, dewpoints reaching above freezing,
and gusty winds, some modest snowmelt looks likely. Added
precipitation amounts remain uncertain, especially in central
and southern Vermont where influences from the secondary
developing low will be, however, there is a 50% chance of at
least 0.5" of liquid equivalent in the GEFS model. As the system
begins to exit Sunday afternoon, temperatures will be slow to
cool in the wider valleys, but the higher terrain should see a
return of cooler conditions with upslope snow showers. The wider
valleys may continue to see some rain mix in as the system
departs.
Beyond the weekend system, a relatively typical winter pattern
returns with subtle troughs and ridges and seasonable temperatures
into next week. Not one day looks to be abnormally cold or warm to
start next week with the flow pattern not picking any particular
direction to be prevailing. These troughs Monday and Tuesday will
mainly lead to some mountain showers with the potential for more
milder air behind by mid next week.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Through 00Z Friday...IFR/MVFR to prevail through at least the
first half of the TAF period as low ceilings and areas of
freezing drizzle/mist and occasional snow showers persist
overnight. Sites most likely to see continuing IFR/LIFR ceilings
will be KSLK/KMPV/KEFK/KMSS, with other terminals expected to
improve somewhat to MVFR and remain so through at least 12z.
Drizzle/mist will continue to keep visibilities restricted to
4-6SM overnight, though they may occasionally lower to around
3SM. Freezing drizzle will be possible as well, with a glaze of
ice possible, mainly on elevated and/or untreated surfaces.
Conditions will gradually improve after 12z Thu, though
widespread MVFR will likely continue through much of the
daylight hours. Winds to remain light and variable through the
TAF period.
Outlook...
Thursday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Friday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Windy with gusts to
30 kt. Definite SHRA, Slight chance FZRA.
Friday Night: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. Chance SHRA.
Saturday: VFR. Chance RA, Chance SN.
Saturday Night: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Definite
SN, Chance RA.
Sunday: Mainly MVFR, with areas IFR possible. Chance RA, Chance
SN.
Sunday Night: MVFR. Chance RA, Slight chance SN.
Monday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. NO SIG WX.
&&
.EQUIPMENT...
NOAA Weather Radio station WXM-44, transmitting from Mt.
Ascutney, Vermont, on frequency 162.475 MHz is non-operational
at this time. NWS technicians have diagnosed the problem, but
repairs will likely not be able to occur for quite some time due
to circumstances beyond our control. Therefore, the time of
return to service is currently unknown. The following NOAA
Weather Radio transmitters may be able to provide service during
this outage: WWG 50 from Burke Mtn, VT at 162.425 MHz and WNG
546 from Hanover, NH at 162.525 MHz.
The Colchester Reef meteorological station is out of service.
This site is not serviced by the NWS and there isn`t an
estimated return to service at present. Use extra caution when
navigating the broad waters of Lake Champlain. Please contact us
if you observe winds significantly deviating from the
recreational forecast.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Haynes
NEAR TERM...Haynes
SHORT TERM...Haynes
LONG TERM...Danzig
AVIATION...Hastings
EQUIPMENT...Team BTV
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