350
FXUS61 KBTV 010553
AFDBTV
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
1253 AM EST Thu Jan 1 2026
.SYNOPSIS...
Widespread snow continues early this morning, with most areas seeing
a total of 1 to 4 inches of snow by daybreak, and 4 to 9 inches
total expected in the St. Lawrence Valley. Seasonably cold weather
is anticipated for the start of the New Year along with occasional
chances for mountain and lake effect snow showers. Moderating
temperatures are expected for the middle of next week ahead of
another weather system.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
As of 1250 AM EST Thursday...
**A Winter Storm Warning remains in effect for southwestern St.
Lawrence County as well as Winter Weather Advisories for the
rest of St. Lawrence and Franklin counties of New York.
**These products will be in effect through 7 AM this morning.
**Plan on slippery road conditions and periods of poor
visibility if traveling for the holiday.
Snow is ongoing across portions of the forecast area, including
southern and central Vermont, the Adirondacks, the St. Lawrence
Valley, the Greens, and portions of the northern Champlain Valley
this morning due to Lake Ontario enhanced moisture and convergence
along a stationary frontal boundary draped across northern New York
and the international border. At the moment, it is unknown exactly
how much snow has fallen across the St. Lawrence Valley and western
Adirondacks, but radar returns clearly indicate a heavy band likely
dropping several inches of snow. NY Mesonet sites estimate 1-4
inches of snow has already fallen across St. Lawrence County.
Temperatures remain somewhat mild in the upper teens to mid 20s
early this morning, but we anticipate a cold front to sweep
through the region over the next several hours.
This cold front will drop temperatures and spread snow to areas that
haven`t yet seen snow tonight like parts of Champlain Valley,
Northeast Kingdom, and Connecticut River Valley. Winds are also
expected to increase and turn west/northwesterly with the passage of
this front as we head into the daylight hours of the first day of
the year. This will cause snow to blow around quite a bit even after
precipitation has ended today. Temperatures should hover in the
single digits and teens for much of today with no clear diurnal
trend, plummeting quickly as the sun goes down this afternoon and
evening. As mentioned, gusty winds will make it feel even colder
with widespread negative wind chills.
Cold weather will continue Thursday night into Friday. Temperatures
on Friday morning will be very chilly, with low temperatures 0 F and
below. Winds will abate, though, keeping us from having harsh wind
chills. We don`t moderate much on Friday with mainly 10s to near 20.
A subtle trough will angle southeast late Friday into the overnight
hours. This should lure some lake effect snow into our forecast area
and could also produce a few terrain snow showers of its own along
the international border. At this time, amounts appear likely to be
on the lighter side, just a couple tenths of an inch for any
accumulations. Another cold night will pass Friday night into
Saturday, with low temperatures in the single digits to near 0
again.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY/...
As of 1250 AM EST Thursday...Cold and dry conditions are expected for
the most part on Saturday, with high temperatures well below normal,
mainly in the teens to mid 20s. Some very light, isolated snow
showers are possible (under 20% chance), especially in the Northeast
Kingdom and mountains Saturday morning with light northwesterly flow
on the tail end of a subtle shortwave.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 114 PM EST Wednesday...Cold and dry conditions are expected for
the most part on Saturday, with high temperatures well below normal,
mainly in the teens. Some very light, isolated snow showers are
possible (under 20% chance), especially in the Northeast Kingdom and
mountains.
More interesting weather may follow Saturday night into Sunday, and
again Monday afternoon - Monday night with more widespread light
snow events in northwest flow. While it is likely to snow at some
point through this period, the specific timeframe cannot be known in
this pattern, so note precipitation chances currently are shown in
six hour windows in the range of 10-40%. Signals for below normal
temperatures are strong through Monday, then weaken Tuesday into
Wednesday when there is some spread in the 500 millibar height
fields after a long period of persistent troughing. Generally the
cold will likely ease by midweek, although the degree of warming is
unclear. Breaking it down by the most recent ensemble clusters, one
multi-model cluster, especially in the GEPS, shows 850 millibar
temperatures becoming above normal, while the mean in other clusters
primarily from the GFS and ECMWF ensemble show near normal values.
So at this time, near normal temperatures currently forecast (highs
in the upper 20s to low 30s) is reasonable with the possibility for
warmer conditions/thawing, with further warming possible for
Wednesday.
At this time, a significant low pressure system is unlikely as the
upper air pattern trends zonal midweek, but with some kind of
frontal system approaching from the west we`ll be monitoring for
somewhat heavier precipitation with possibility of a rain/snow mix
in the valleys. Stay tuned!
&&
.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Through 06Z Friday...A weak area of low pres will continue to
produce scattered snow showers with most persistent IFR vis at
MSS/SLK and MPV thru 10z. Elsewhere utilized tempo groups to
show intervals of IFR for the next 2 to 4 hours with vis between
1-3SM. However, expect a brief 15 to 30 minute window of LIFR
with vis 1/2sm-3/4sm associated with cold front moving from west
to east across our taf sites btwn 07z-10z this morning. Brisk
south/southwest winds 10 to 20 knots, shift to the
west/northwest at 15 to 25 knots and continue into Thursday
morning. CIGS and Vis become a mix of MVFR in the mountain sites
and VFR in the valleys by 14z with mostly VFR conditions by 16z.
Winds slowly decrease by afternoon.
Outlook...
Friday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Friday Night: VFR. Isolated SHSN.
Saturday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Isolated SHSN.
Saturday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance
SHSN.
Sunday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Slight chance SHSN.
Sunday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. NO SIG WX.
Monday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Slight chance SHSN.
&&
.EQUIPMENT...
NOAA Weather Radio station WXM-44, transmitting from Mt.
Ascutney, Vermont, on frequency 162.475 MHz is non-operational
at this time. NWS technicians have diagnosed the problem, but
repairs will likely not be able to occur for quite some time due
to circumstances beyond our control. Therefore, the time of
return to service is currently unknown. The following NOAA
Weather Radio transmitters may be able to provide service during
this outage: WWG 50 from Burke Mtn, VT at 162.425 MHz and WNG
546 from Hanover, NH at 162.525 MHz.
The Colchester Reef meteorological station is out of service.
This site is not serviced by the NWS and there isn`t an
estimated return to service at present. Use extra caution when
navigating the broad waters of Lake Champlain. Please contact us
if you observe winds significantly deviating from the
recreational forecast.
The Newport AWOS has stopped reporting due to a communications
failure likely at the site. TAF amendments will not be
scheduled until this issue is resolved.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...Winter Weather Advisory until 7 AM EST this morning for NYZ026-
027-029-030.
Winter Storm Warning until 7 AM EST this morning for NYZ087.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Storm
NEAR TERM...Storm
SHORT TERM...Storm
LONG TERM...Kutikoff
AVIATION...Taber
EQUIPMENT...Team BTV
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