715
FXUS61 KBTV 141919
AFDBTV
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
319 PM EDT Mon Jul 14 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
Scattered showers and embedded thunderstorms will push south and east
of the region this evening. A humid air mass will linger overnight
with light winds and the potential for patchy dense fog, especially
in favored valley locations. Temperatures will climb in the coming
days, with afternoon highs generally in the upper 80s to lower 90s.
Wednesday should be the hottest day, with valley locations reaching
the mid-90s. An approaching frontal system from the Great Lakes
will bring the next chance for showers and thunderstorms across
the region by Thursday afternoon.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 229 PM EDT Monday...This afternoon, we continue to monitor
isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms, some containing
brief heavy rainfall and generally sub-severe wind gusts. Storms
at 1830Z extended from Orleans County in northeastern VT swwd to
near Waterbury and into the Middlebury area. Some limiting
factors exist for much in the way of severe potentially...namely
modest mid-level lapse rates around 6C/km and sfc-6km bulk shear
of only around 20kts. PW axis remains across VT, with values of
1.7 to 1.8". This is favorable for heavy downpours (in
conjunction with SBCAPE values of 1500-2000 J/kg), but as is
typical, generally limits the mid-level lapse rates with
tall/skinny CAPE profiles. Have seen some convective rainfall
amounts in the 1-1.25" range in southern Chittenden and Addison
counties earlier this afternoon, helped by slow storm motions
of only ESE 10-15kts. Will continue to monitor convective threat
through early this evening for potential heavy rain/gusty
winds. Thereafter, activity should diminish in intensity and
gradually shift to the south and east of our CWA.
For the overnight hours, generally quiet with light wind
conditions. Have noted some increase in near-surface particulate
matter across the Ottawa Valley into nrn NY this afternoon, so
will probably see some areas of smoke/BR this evening and
overnight. This may also help fog formation, and included patchy
dense fog overnight in the favored river valley locations.
Overnight lows should range from the low-mid 60s. With the
increase in fine particulates, Air Quality Alerts are in effect
from midnight tonight through midnight Tuesday night.
On Tuesday, mid-level ridge starts to build across the nern
CONUS with 850mb temperatures increase to +18 to +19C. Should
yield warmer temperatures, with afternoon highs in the upper 80s
to lower 90s. The July 15th record high at BTV is only 93F...we
will likely fall a degree or two short of that value, but it
will be close. Dewpoints will generally be in the mid-60s. With
anticyclonic flow aloft and building heights, not expecting any
tstm development for Tuesday.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 229 PM EDT Monday...The story for the mid-week period will
be the high probability of hot and humid conditions, with
potentially our first stretch of 3 consecutive 90 degrees days
at BTV this summer for the TUE-THU time frame (i.e., our first
"heat wave" locally). Wednesday appears to be the hottest day
of the stretch with highs reaching the low-mid 90s across most
of the North Country. With heat index values in the 95-100
degree range on Wednesday, will need to monitor for a possible
heat advisory. We have heat messaging in the Hazardous Weather
Outlook at this time.
Can`t rule out an isold thunderstorm or two across nrn NY on
Wednesday afternoon/evening, but absence of any strong forcing
will limit coverage. Lows Wednesday night will generally remain
in the 70s in most areas outside of the Adirondacks and
Vermont`s Northeast Kingdom.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 229 PM EDT Monday...A frontal system approaching from the
Great Lakes region will bring modest mid-level height falls and
developing mid-level cyclonic flow, sufficient for scattered to
numerous showers and thunderstorms by Thursday afternoon/evening,
especially given strong PBL heating and high dewpoints. NBM
suggests 2-m dewpoints in the low-mid 70s. Despite temperatures
being a few degrees cooler (highs in the upper 80s to lower
90s), heat index values will not vary considerably from
Wednesday. Would anticipate still having concerns for possible
heat advisories in some areas through the day Thursday. The
high dewpoints will help drive moderate surface-based
instability, with SBCAPE potentially 2000-2500 J/kg. As a
result, a few strong to severe storms are possible Thursday
afternoon and evening, and we will continue to monitor for that
potential. Will also need to watch for localized heavy rainfall,
and WPC has continued to marginal risk in their Day 4 Excessive
Rainfall Outlook.
In the 12Z NWP guidance suite for Friday, frontal system
progresses further south and east, and there is an increasing
chance that most of the shower and thunderstorm activity will be
shifting to our south and east accordingly. Have maintained 30
PoPs during the morning hours, with diminishing PoPs in the
afternoon from NW-SE. This should also bring about some cooler
temperatures, with highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s for
Friday afternoon.
Seasonable temperatures are expected to continue through the
upcoming weekend, with highs mainly in the 80-85F range.
Canadian high pressure should bring mainly dry weather for
Saturday, with just a low potential for showers (20-30 percent)
Sunday based on current indications.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Through 18Z Tuesday...Showers and thunderstorms will impact the
Vermont terminals through the evening as a slow moving cold
front traverses the region. Showers and thunderstorms should
impact EFK between 18-20Z, and MPV/RUT by 19-21Z. Some lingering
MVFR ceilings are leading MPV/RUT to bounce between 2500-3500 ft
agl ceilings. These MVFR ceilings are expected to scatter out
as a line of showers across central Vermont move through. These
showers may have some gusty winds and briefly heavy rains which
may reduce visibilities to MVFR, and IFR under any heavier
showers. Behind these showers and thunderstorms, ceilings should
trend towards VFR with little to no additional shower development
expected. Fog is anticipated in the climatologically favored
valleys and hollows tonight. Confidence is highest at SLK/MPV
especially if showers move over the area, lower confidence
exists at RUT/EFK. With any particulate matter from Canadian
wildfires, haze may reduce visibilities at times, particularly
at MSS. Smoke may also lead to denser patchy fog with
visibilities to IFR/LIFR at times. Tomorrow, fog dissipates by
13Z with calm winds and VFR expected.
Outlook...
Tuesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA.
Thursday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Likely SHRA,
Chance TSRA.
Thursday Night: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Chance SHRA,
Chance TSRA.
Friday: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Chance SHRA, Slight
chance TSRA.
Friday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
Saturday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Banacos
NEAR TERM...Banacos
SHORT TERM...Banacos
LONG TERM...Banacos
AVIATION...Danzig
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