681
FXUS61 KBTV 250005
AFDBTV
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
705 PM EST Sat Jan 24 2026
.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
As of 215 PM EST Saturday... Extreme cold warning has been
replaced by cold weather advisory for portions of the area
tonight. Otherwise, no significant changes made to snowfall
amounts for event late Sunday through Monday.
&&
.KEY MESSAGES...
As of 215 PM EST Saturday... 1. Bitterly cold temperatures and
wind chills of -15F to -25F expected tonight across parts of the
area, increasing the risk of hypothermia and frostbite.
2. A long duration and widespread moderate to locally heavy 8
to 16 inch snowfall is expected late Sunday through Monday,
making for hazardous travel, especially the commutes on Monday.
3. Below normal temperatures are expected to continue across
the region next week, with periods of isolated to scattered snow
showers possible.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
As of 215 PM EST Saturday...
.KEY MESSAGE 1: Bitterly cold temperatures and wind chills of
-15F to -25F expected tonight across parts of the
area,increasing the risk of hypothermia and frostbite.
A 1040mb high pres is progged to be centered over the NEK of VT
at 06z tonight, which wl provide cwa with ideal radiational
cooling conditions with light winds and clear skies. After 06z
mid/upper lvl clouds should overspread the region from southwest
to northeast in advance of our approaching winter storm. Given
temps have struggled to reach 0F in many spots with dwpts in the
-10F to -20F range, feel temps wl drop like a rock once
the sunsets this evening. I have tried my best to capture the
rate of temp fall, thinking -15F to near -25F for NEK/SLK areas
with
-5F to -15F elsewhere for lows. The cold weather advisory is for
the combination of temps and wind chills between -15F and -25f
acrs parts of our cwa, which can increase the risk of
hypothermia and frostbite.
.KEY MESSAGE 2: A long duration and widespread moderate to
locally heavy 8 to 16 inch snowfall is expected late Sunday
through Monday, making for hazardous travel, especially the
commutes on Monday.
Overall fcst remains on track for a long duration and
widespread moderate to locally heavy snowfall acrs our cwa from
late Sunday thru Monday. The challenging aspect is amount of qpf
and associated snowfall ratios. Good news it will be an all
snow event.
Water vapor shows deep moisture advection from sub-tropical jet
moving acrs the central/southern CONUS attm, with potent
southern stream s/w energy over the central Baja, while northern
energy is dropping south acrs the northern Plains. As potent
s/w energy ejects eastward tonight, sfc low pres wl develop over
the MS River Valley by Sunday, while 1040mb arctic high pres
remains anchored over northern New England. The position of sfc
high pres wl help to enhance CAD signature on lee-side of the
Appalachians Mtns and produce a double barrel (Miller Type B)
low pres structure by late Sunday. The primary sfc low pres wl
track from northeast NC to just inside the 40/70 benchmark by
12z Monday, while secondary low pres produces a weak inverted
sfc trof like feature acrs our cwa by midday Monday.
HREF shows a brief 1 to 3 hour window of 1 to 1.5" per hour
snowfall rates associated with initial surge of 850mb to 700mb
fgen forcing on Sunday night. This area of favorable deep layer
synoptic scale ascent with favorable rrq of 250mb jet lifts
quickly acrs our cwa on Sunday night, along with increasing pw
values toward 0.35". Low level wind profiles do indicate a
southeast jet of 25 to 45 knots between 925mb and 850mb, so some
downslope shadowing and upslope enhancement on initial surge is
likely acrs our cwa. I anticipate a general 2 to 6 inches by
Monday morning with some local variability due to trrn.
As additional northern stream s/w energy crosses our cwa btwn
15z- 00z Monday, an inverted sfc trof features develops
somewhere from northern NY into central VT. Its this llvl
convergence, combined with additional 7h fgen forcing that could
produce a localized enhanced area of snowfall on Monday acrs
portions of our cwa. My NAM 12KM mesobanding procedure indicates
this narrow band of favorable lift/moisture could be stationary
for several hour midday Monday. Its extremely difficult to pin
point the exact placement and movement, but many of the high res
guidance shows this potential acrs the central CPV, including
the Milton to Burlington to Hinesburg areas. Furthermore, as
wind slowly shift from northeast to northerly, the llvl
convergence with strong blocked flow (froude <0.50) develops,
helping to enhance potential snowfall amounts locally. Its
interesting to note the NBM mean 48 hour snowfall for BTV is 17
inches with 25th of 16" and 75" of 20 inches, while 1V4 mean is
12", 11" and 14" respectively. Given the primary sfc low pres
track, feel SLV may have difficulties reaching warning level
snow criteria, as NBM shows mean values in the 5-8" range.
Snow ratios are challenging with this event, given the
extremely cold air mass, which holds limited amounts of
moisture. Pw values surge to near 0.40" on Sunday night
associated with waa lift/moisture, but drop back into the 0.15"
to 0.25" range by Monday, as northern stream dynamics move acrs
our region. Does the amount of moisture and intervals of better
lift/dynamics impact snow ratios at time during this event,
probably. I used an average of 18/20 to 1 but think this maybe
high at times. I think we may see some smaller flakes initially
before complete saturation of the column occurs and again on
Monday morning before better energy aloft arrives. I tried to
integrate that into my final snowfall amounts, which ranges from
6-8" SLV, 8-12" northern Dacks into NEK of VT, and 12 to 16" in
the CPV and central/southern VT. I would not be surprised
within the local mesoscale band/inverted trof axis isolated
amounts 16" to 20" by 06z Tuesday. Just too difficult to
determine location attm. Thinking storm total qpf ranges from
0.40" SLV to locally 0.75" to 0.85" southern Green Mtns.
Moisture final decreases on Monday night with lingering snow
showers associated with upslope flow and caa prevailing over the
northern/central Greens. However, moisture is quickly
decreasing after 06z, so probably just flurries toward Tues
morning. Temps remain cold throughout the event with highs only
in the single digits and teens and lows remaining steady.
.KEY MESSAGE 3: Below normal temperatures are expected to
continue across the region next week, with periods of isolated
to scattered snow showers possible.
In the wake of the winter storm exiting the region Monday
night, a cold pattern looks to set up with below normal
temperatures expected for most of the week and occasional
chances for snow showers. Daytime highs look to climb into the
single digits and teens, compared to climatological normals in
the 20s. Overnight lows look to generally be in the single
digits above and below zero, with Wednesday night into Thursday
looking to be the coldest. Some periods of showers will be
possible throughout the week with an upper low across Quebec,
and while exact timing is uncertain, any snow amounts look to be
fairly light during this time frame with very little moisture.
The best chances for showers will be along the favored upslope
areas,as well as across St. Lawrence County and portions of the
Adirondacks due to some enhancement off Lake Ontario, but
accumulations are expected to be light.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Through 00Z Monday...Strong high pressure will keep flight
weather conditions VFR through 18z Sunday. Winds will be light
overnight. Clouds increasing during the daytime hours Sunday.
Chance for snow will begin from about 16z onward, and spread
into our area from south to north. RUT and SLK will have snow by
about 17z, then the rest of the terminals by 00z. Snow may be
heavy at times, therefore IFR conditions will be intermittent
with MVFR in lighter snow.
Outlook...
Sunday Night: MVFR and IFR. Definite SN.
Monday: Mainly MVFR and IFR, with local VFR possible. Definite
SN.
Monday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHSN.
Tuesday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight chance
SHSN.
Tuesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Thursday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
&&
.CLIMATE...
Record low maximum temperatures are possible on Saturday; below
are the current records:
KBTV (Burlington area): -4 in 1907
KPBG (Plattsburgh area): 0 in 1976
KSLK (Saranac Lake area): -10 in 1936
KMSS (Massena): -5 in 2004
KMPV (Montpelier): 0 in 2004
SJBV1 (St. Johnsbury): -3 in 1907
&&
.EQUIPMENT...
NOAA Weather Radio station WXM-44, transmitting from Mt.
Ascutney, Vermont, on frequency 162.475 MHz is non-operational
at this time. NWS technicians have diagnosed the problem, but
repairs will likely not be able to occur for quite some time due
to circumstances beyond our control. Therefore, the time of
return to service is currently unknown. The following NOAA
Weather Radio transmitters may be able to provide service during
this outage: WWG 50 from Burke Mtn, VT at 162.425 MHz and WNG
546 from Hanover, NH at 162.525 MHz.
The Colchester Reef meteorological station is out of service.
This site is not serviced by the NWS and there isn`t an
estimated return to service at present. Use extra caution when
navigating the broad waters of Lake Champlain. Please contact us
if you observe winds significantly deviating from the
recreational forecast.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...Cold Weather Advisory until 7 AM EST Sunday for VTZ003-004-
006>008-010-016>020.
Winter Storm Warning from 1 PM Sunday to 1 AM EST Tuesday for
VTZ001>011-016>021.
NY...Cold Weather Advisory until 7 AM EST Sunday for NYZ026-027-
029>031-034.
Winter Storm Warning from 1 PM Sunday to 1 AM EST Tuesday for
NYZ026>031-034-035-087.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Kremer/Taber
AVIATION...Boyd/Neiles
CLIMATE...NWS BTV
EQUIPMENT...NWS BTV
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