938
FXUS61 KBTV 020702
AFDBTV
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
302 AM EDT Sat May 2 2026
.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
As of 301 AM EDT Saturday...
Increased chances for scattered showers this afternoon. Frost
potential for tonight remains uncertain.
&&
.KEY MESSAGES...
As of 301 AM EDT Saturday...
1. Showery weather prevails today with temperatures remaining
below normal.
2. Frost is possible tonight and perhaps again Sunday night,
though additional showers Sunday night into Monday may preclude
frost formation.
3. Confidence continues to increase for an unsettled pattern
with below normal temperatures for mid to late next week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
As of 301 AM EDT Saturday...
KEY MESSAGE 1: An area of light precipitation associated with a weak
upper shortwave will continue to move across the region early this
morning. Rainfall amounts have been fairly lackluster so far, with
most areas seeing around a tenth of an inch or less over the past 6
hours. Temperatures in the higher elevations of northern NY and in
central and northeastern VT are in the mid to upper 30s, while
mountain summits are generally in the mid 20s to around 30.
Therefore, expect the higher elevations, mainly above 1500 ft, will
see precipitation in the form of wet snow. A few inches of
accumulation is possible atop the highest summits. Some snow may
mix in above 1000 ft from time to time, but little to no
accumulation is expected.
This main batch of precipitation will exit to our north and east by
mid/late morning. However, additional scattered showers are expected
to develop this afternoon as low level lapse rates steepen in
response to cold air advection and some daytime heating. SB CAPE
values could approach 150 J/kg or more, so some of the showers may
be relatively robust, capable of a quick downpour. Rainfall amounts
through today will mainly be a quarter of an inch or less, but a few
spots may see more if a heavier shower moves overhead. Otherwise,
it`ll be a cool day with highs only in the mid 40s to mid 50s
under partly to mostly cloudy skies.
KEY MESSAGE 2: Showers will come to a quick end this evening as daytime
heating wanes. Ridging will briefly build in Sunday night into
Monday, with light winds and dry conditions. However, the amount of
cloud cover is still uncertain as model guidance shows some
lingering 700-900 mb moisture, potentially enough to limit frost
potential under partly to mostly cloudy skies. Have kept frost in
the forecast for now, but do not have enough confidence at this time
to issue any headlines. However, anyone with sensitive outdoor
vegetation may want to take precautions, just in case.
Dry weather persists on Sunday, then another round of showers moves
in Sunday night into Monday. This, too, should limit any frost,
though it will depend on how quickly showers and associated cloud
cover spreads over the region. Highs on Sunday will be a few degrees
warmer than today, while Monday will be even warmer still after a
warm frontal passage. Highs will be in the mid 50s to mid 60s.
KEY MESSAGE 3: The latest WPC forecast shows 7 periods Tues thru Fri of
at least 55 or greater pops for our most of our cwa, especially the
higher trrn of northern NY and VT. Tuesday wl be the warmest day as
southwest flow and llvl waa helps to advect progged 925mb temps 14C
and 16C ahead of approaching cold frnt. This supports highs well
into the 70s as most of the precip should hold off until sunset. GFS
does show an axis of weak instability thru 00z, but most of the
precip is post frontal, so not anticipating much potential for
strong or severe storms. Have kept isolated mention for thunder.
Mid/upper lvl trof deepens acrs the central Great Lakes on Weds into
Thurs, as thermal gradient sharpens along the eastern CONUS. The
forecast spread increases for mid to late week with regards to
phasing of northern and southern stream energy, along with
development and track of sfc low pres. Crntly 00z GFS and ECMWF are
the most aggressive with development of closed 7-5h circulation and
deepening sfc low pres and producing a widespread moderate to heavy
rain event for Weds into Thurs. Meanwhile, CMC is much less
amplified and more progressive with tracking sfc low pres off the
eastern seaboard, which results in less rain. For now have continued
with WPC pops of 70-85% for this time frame, given the relatively
good agreement in at least some precip occurring, just uncertainty
on placement and how much attm. Temps wl trend below normal,
especially daytime highs by Weds and Thurs, as cooling occurs with
development of mid/upper lvl trof and areas of precip. Highs
generally in the mid/upper 30s summits to upper 40s to mid 50s,
while lows are in the 30s and 40s. Deep cyclonic flow lingers into
next weekend, with additional s/w energy and pockets of moisture,
combined with upslope flow supports the threat for additional
showers and below normal temps.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Through 06Z Sunday...Currently VFR conditions with radar imagery
showing light precip trying to angle toward our taf sites this
morning, however dry air near the ground is resulting in some
virga. Eventually low levels will become saturated with a period
of light rain and mountain snow showers expected between 06z-12z
this morning. CIGS are expected to trend toward MVFR with some
intervals of IFR possible toward sunrise at SLK/MPV. Also, some
snow is possible at SLK with brief IFR VIS expected. CIGS slowly
improve to a mix of MVFR/VFR by 16z Saturday with additional
scattered showers on Saturday aftn. Have coverage this
potential with PROB30 groups for most of our taf sites. Winds
are light and variable, becoming north/northwest at 4 to 8
knots.
Outlook...
Sunday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Sunday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA.
Monday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA.
Monday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
Tuesday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Likely SHRA,
Slight chance TSRA.
Tuesday Night: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Likely SHRA.
Wednesday: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Definite SHRA.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.
&&
$$
WHAT HAS CHANGED...Hastings
DISCUSSION...Taber/Hastings
AVIATION...Taber
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