277
FXUS61 KBTV 091801
AFDBTV
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
101 PM EST Fri Jan 9 2026
.SYNOPSIS...
Gusty winds and periods of rain showers will occur today;
strongest winds will be late in the day into the evening,
particularly in northern New York. Another widespread light snow
event with some wintry mix will follow for Saturday night into
Sunday, transitioning into a northwesterly upslope snowfall
Sunday night. Active weather will continue into next week with
temperatures near to a bit above normal.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 236 AM EST Friday...
*Key Point: A Wind Advisory remains in effect for the northern
slopes of the Adirondacks and was expanded into the St.
Lawrence Valley through this evening.
Today still looks windy for northern New York. Early this
morning winds have already gusty 40-45 MPH over western New York
where temperatures have surged into the lower 50s; this is a
preview of the way our weather will go today once the low level
southerly winds mix a bit better. Gusty winds, aside from
mountain summits, will be mainly over the northern Adirondack
region, especially near the Route 11 corridor, and in the
vicinity of Lake Champlain, through midday. They will also
become strong by this evening over the St. Lawrence Valley. The
window of channeled valley flow looks relatively brief, but even
with moist low level conditions, the strength of the winds
aloft, still near 60 knots as the surface cold front passes
through, should be sufficient to see impactful winds with some
gusts near 50 MPH. A well defined cold front will sweep eastward
tonight with a surge of winds across the remainder of the
northern New York and Vermont, with terrain effects favoring
strongest winds being over western Clinton County as winds shift
westerly. Some downsloping enhancements will help see locally
35-45 MPH gusts across the eastern slopes of the Greens as well,
especially in the 10 PM to 2 AM period. With a more west/west-
northwest instead of west- southwest direction, a higher wind
potential could be realized in Vermont.
As for rainfall today, current satellite and radar imagery
tells the story with well-defined areas of precipitation and
some dry slots in between. Very light rain falling out of a mid-
level cloud deck this morning will move through the region early
today, with measurable rain arriving late this morning or
afternoon as numerous showers slide eastward. This precipitation
will be periodically heavy associated with a plume of deep
moisture/anomalous PWAT for this time of year. While low level
air becomes quite warm and moist, one reason why winds won`t be
notable during this period for most locations is how stout the
temperature inversion will be. It looks like the warmest/most
humid conditions may occur immediately after the front moves
through tonight when we mix better with cooling aloft. A second,
narrower area of showers will come through after a few hour
break along the cold front when moisture will be shallower and
precipitation chances currently are on the lower side (dwindling
to 10-30%). With the trend towards lower elevations seeing
cooler/less humid conditions with rainfall amounts only
0.1"-0.5" for most locations, the basin snowmelt and river ice
movement potential has become even lower for this event.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 308 AM EST Friday...
*Key Point: Widespread snow with some wintry mix is expected
for Saturday night, with additional snow showers on Sunday
A double-barrelled low pressure system continues to be on track
to bring us widespread precipitation beginning Saturday night
and trending towards more localized/showery precipitation on
Sunday as the primary low to our northwest drags a cold front
through the region.
Snowfall continues to trend higher with less potential for a
wintry mix. Through Sunday afternoon, event total snowfall is
now creeping into Winter Weather Advisory territory in much of
northern Vermont with the latest forecast, but spread remains
moderately large. Greatest potential snowfall remains in
northeastern Vermont, where 90th percentile snow amounts are now
4 to 7 inches. There is still enough uncertainty to show areas
of sleet and freezing rain, primarily in southern areas where
the air mass at the onset of the event will not be as cold/dry,
so it will be easier for a warm nose to produce a melting layer
aloft. Note that some model forecast soundings continue to show
this layer is relatively high, with a deep enough cold layer
below to favor sleet. Did not mess with the NBM probability of
weather type given how uncertain these profiles are, so again
ice accumulations are still questionable even where freezing
rain is indicated. Generally with a transient warm front
scenario with bands of frontogenetically forced precipitation
moving northward, a single precipitation of ice or sleet would
also not last too long so significant ice is unlikely.
On Sunday out ahead of the aforementioned low pressure area to
our west, robust CAPE for wintertime (mean values 15-30 J/kg,
90th percentile 50-70 J/kg) will push eastward during the
daytime hours. The combination of better moisture and timing of
the frontal passage seems to favor northern Vermont for heavy
snow shower activity versus northern New York or southern
portions of Vermont. Intense snow showers and scattered snow
squalls are possible in this setup, and with road temperatures
probably rising above freezing, flash freeze potential will need
to be considered.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 137 AM EST Friday...Low pressure system pulls off to our
northeast on Sunday night, but upper level trough trails behind
departing system. As upper level trough crosses our area along
with plenty of shortwave energy, will have snow showers
continuing especially across the northwest facing slopes of the
Adirondacks and northern Greens as flow becomes northwesterly.
An additional one to five inches of snow is possible overnight
with the bigger totals across the higher terrain. Gusty winds
are anticipated as 45 kt 850 mb jet traverses the area,
especially our southern zones. Will continue to monitor for
potential for snow squalls, but at this time looks like we are
lacking frontogenesis as it`s already well east of the area.
Flow will become more southwesterly overnight and a lake effect
snow band off Lake Ontario may impact parts of the southern St
Lawrence valley. Our weather will then remain quite unsettled
headed into next week as upper level pattern supports active
weather for our part of the region. Right now looks like
additional chances for precipitation on Tuesday with maybe a
more significant system for midweek. Still a lot of uncertainty
this far out, and details will become more clear as we get
closer to next week.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Through 18Z Saturday...Gusty winds and periods of rain showers will
occur this afternoon and evening; strongest winds will be in
northern New York. Winds are currently gusting widespread 20-35
knots out of the south/southeast at the surface while a strong low
level jet moves overhead with winds 45-60 knots out of the
west/southwest. This will mean low level wind shear is a threat at
all sites through around 04Z-10Z Saturday when winds overall
decrease and turn northerly into the daylight hours Saturday. Before
then though, surface wind gusts are expected to increase, peaking 25-
35 knots out of the south/southwest 23Z Friday to 07Z Saturday.
Highest winds are forecast for our New York sites MSS, SLK, and PBG
with 40-50 knots likely. Because of this, we have in place a Wind
Advisory this afternoon into tonight, highlighting the potential for
winds to blow around unsecured objects and isolated power outages
resulting from falling tree limbs.
In addition to winds and LLWS, we are monitoring the potential
for ceilings to lower associated with areas of rain showers this
afternoon and evening. Ceilings are likely to be 3000 feet or
below by around 20Z Friday to 02Z Saturday for many sites, and
the associated showers may result in lowered visibilities 4-6
miles occasionally. Ceilings are forecast to increase again to
VFR levels for all sites by around 04Z-10Z Saturday, around the
same time we expect the threat of LLWS to decrease. However,
mountain sites like SLK and EFK could stay socked in with MVFR
clouds for longer on Saturday than the others so long as overall
flow remains northwesterly behind the rain system. There is
some potential that SLK sees IFR ceilings sometime between 03Z
and 07Z Saturday, but confidence is low at this point on the
details as models don`t have a strong consensus on this
probability.
Outlook...
Saturday Night: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Definite
SN, Chance RA, Chance FZRA.
Sunday: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Likely SHSN, Chance
SHRA.
Sunday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance SHSN.
Monday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight chance SHSN.
Monday Night: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. Chance SHSN.
Tuesday: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. Slight chance
SHSN.
Tuesday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance SHSN,
Chance FZRA.
Wednesday: Mainly MVFR, with local VFR possible. Chance SHSN,
Likely FZRA.
&&
.EQUIPMENT...
NOAA Weather Radio station WXM-44, transmitting from Mt.
Ascutney, Vermont, on frequency 162.475 MHz is non-operational
at this time. NWS technicians have diagnosed the problem, but
repairs will likely not be able to occur for quite some time due
to circumstances beyond our control. Therefore, the time of
return to service is currently unknown. The following NOAA
Weather Radio transmitters may be able to provide service during
this outage: WWG 50 from Burke Mtn, VT at 162.425 MHz and WNG
546 from Hanover, NH at 162.525 MHz.
The Colchester Reef meteorological station is out of service.
This site is not serviced by the NWS and there isn`t an
estimated return to service at present. Use extra caution when
navigating the broad waters of Lake Champlain. Please contact us
if you observe winds significantly deviating from the
recreational forecast.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...Wind Advisory until 10 PM EST this evening for NYZ026-087.
Wind Advisory until 1 AM EST Saturday for NYZ027>031-034-035.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Kutikoff
NEAR TERM...Kutikoff
SHORT TERM...Kutikoff
LONG TERM...Neiles
AVIATION...Storm
EQUIPMENT...Team BTV
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