935
FXUS61 KBTV 271931
AFDBTV
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
331 PM EDT Mon Apr 27 2026
.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
As of 331 PM EDT Monday...
A Fire Weather Watch has been issued for western portions of Vermont
and all of northern New York for Tuesday.
&&
.KEY MESSAGES...
As of 331 PM EDT Monday...
1. Critical fire weather conditions are expected Tuesday in
much of northern New York and parts of Vermont.
2. A welcomed wet period with a long duration, moderate
rainfall is expected later this week, primarily on Thursday.
3. Unsettled conditions are expected to linger through the
weekend into early next week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
As of 331 PM EDT Monday...
KEY MESSAGE 1:
Over a week of dry weather and lack of greenup is supporting
fire weather concerns tomorrow when gusty south winds are
expected to develop. Driving our consistent dry and sunny
weather has been a narrow ridge of high pressure stuck over us
and currently overhead. It will shift just east of us tomorrow,
sandwiched in between an approaching trough of low pressure from
the west and a slow moving low over the western Atlantic. In the
upper levels, ridging will stay strong over Vermont, while
cyclonic flow moves into New York. This pattern sets the stage
for Red Flag conditions over northern New York and western
Vermont where a Fire Weather Watch is in effect. Plentiful dry
air will be present while a belt of stronger winds aloft gets
tapped into such that frequent gusts over 25 MPH are likely. In
fact, momentum transfer with such a dry air mass could be
efficient enough to see a few gusts as high as 40 MPH in
northern New York especially towards the International Border,
but have held off on making this into the official forecast.
In Vermont, particularly central and eastern areas, there is a
more limited concern of such strong winds with a weaker gradient
and less favorable southeasterly trajectories of near surface
air. That being said, these winds should gust upwards of 20-25
MPH throughout the afternoon concurrent with RH values below
30%. Note that each day during the current dry spell we are
cumulatively drying out our land surfaces such that it is easier
to see lower RH values than modeled. This afternoon, for
example, RH values as of 2 PM were largely down into the 25 to
30% range, near or below minimum forecasted values from the
National Blend of Models. The breeziest conditions in northern
New York will also lead to some enhanced humidity drops as
drier air aloft mixes down in the northernmost valleys where the
latest relative humidity (RH) forecasts are down to about 20%.
A similar scenario on April 9th with southerly winds led to
afternoon RH values dropping into the upper teens to twenties in
much of our region.
KEY MESSAGE 2: A flip from dry to wet weather is on track for
midweek. A double barreled low scenario, with an initial low
pressure system passing from northern New York into southern
Canada Wednesday night and secondary low forming to our south
and east along a slow moving front during the day Thursday, is
moving into further focus. With this scenario, a widespread
soaking rain will occur areawide but with heaviest amounts
favored into two zones west and east, with less rain in
northwestern Vermont/northeastern New York. The latest
precipitation forecast shows rainfall totals exceeding 1" being
likely in the St. Lawrence Valley and portions of
central/eastern Vermont. Generally, expect a large area of rain,
with embedded heavier showers associated with some elevated
instability, will gradually translate eastward along the front
Wednesday night through Thursday evening. The back edge of rain
should be last to exit northeastern Vermont Thursday night as
the secondary low slowly passes to our north and east and
becomes the dominant player, while the trough takes on a
slightly negative tilt. Cooler air will filter in from the north
and west through this period as a trough becomes fully
established over the region.
KEY MESSAGE 3: There is little change in the overall synoptic pattern
in the long term through the weekend into next week. Strong ridging
across the North Atlantic will stagnate an upper low across Quebec
and the Canadian Maritimes with daily shower chances resulting
across the area looking increasingly likely. Best chances for any
showers look to be across near the International Border, though the
specific timing of any shower activity still remains uncertain.
Under the core of the upper low, temperatures will be unseasonably
cool with snow showers reasonably possible for elevations above
2000ft. Lower elevations should remain closer to seasonable norms,
though still slightly below, with mainly rain with any shower
activity. Highs are favored to be in the upper 40s to mid 50s, and
lows in the 30s.
One thing to note is that the climatological start to the growing
season in the Champlain Valley begins May 1st (this Friday) when we
expect overnight lows to be near Frost Advisory criteria (32-36F)
both Friday night and lesser so Saturday night. Cloud cover may
limit the overall cooling that takes place, but conditions may be
favorable for frost development. We will monitor this in the coming
days.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Through 18Z Tuesday...Persistent VFR will continue through the
forecast period with the region under high pressure. Winds will
generally remain light and be more terrain driven in absence of
a stronger pressure gradient. Some lake breeze for BTV/PBG is
favored to develop around Lake Champlain as temperatures warm
driving a thermal circulation. Southerly winds aloft begin to
increase overnight setting up for some breezy conditions on
Tuesday.
Outlook...
Tuesday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
Wednesday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight chance
SHRA.
Wednesday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Definite
SHRA.
Thursday: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Definite SHRA.
Thursday Night: Mainly MVFR, with local VFR possible. Chance
SHRA.
Friday: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. Chance SHRA.
Friday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA,
Chance SHSN.
Saturday: VFR. Chance SHRA.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...Fire Weather Watch from Tuesday morning through Tuesday
evening for VTZ030-033.
NY...Fire Weather Watch from Tuesday morning through Tuesday
evening for NYZ202>205.
&&
$$
WHAT HAS CHANGED...Kutikoff
DISCUSSION...Kutikoff/Danzig
AVIATION...Danzig
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