605
FXUS61 KBTV 311823
AFDBTV
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
223 PM EDT Sun May 31 2026
.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
As of 223 PM EDT Sunday...
No significant changes have been made to the forecast, with showers
continuing to overspread the region this afternoon.
&&
.KEY MESSAGES...
As of 223 PM EDT Sunday...
1. Showers will continue through this afternoon and evening,
with drier conditions expected heading into the week ahead.
2. Drier weather along with a warming trend is expected for the
latter half of next week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
As of 223 PM EDT Sunday...
KEY MESSAGE 1: A shortwave pushing through the region will continue to
bring additional showers this afternoon and evening. With cold air
aloft and diurnal heating, a few rumbles of thunder will be possible
this afternoon as well as the potential for some pea-sized hail
within any stronger showers. Precipitation amounts throughout the
day are expected to remain fairly light, with a few tenths of an
inch possible for most locations. Overnight lows will be on the cool
side once again, with temperatures dropping into the upper 30s to
near 50. With warmer temperatures and lingering clouds, frost is not
expected overnight. Additional isolated shower chances will be
possible throughout the day Monday, driven by steep lapse rates and
diurnal heating. The overall coverage is expected to be fairly
limited during the day tomorrow, with very little rainfall
accumulation expected. Temperatures during the day tomorrow will be
more seasonable in comparison to the last few days, with high
temperatures in the 60s to low 70s. Another cool night will be
possible Monday night, which may lead to some additional frost
concerns, especially in the Adirondacks and the Northeast
Kingdom. Conditions are expected to trend drier and more
seasonable as the week progresses as ridging slowly begins to
build into the region.
KEY MESSAGE 2: High pressure builds across the Northeast CONUS on
Wednesday and lingers through at least Friday morning. The result
will be a few dry days and warming temperatures. A coastal low
pressure system will develop off the Carolina coast and lift
northeastward through this period as well, but the ridge will keep
it shunted well to our south and east. Temperatures will warm into
the mid 70s to mid 80s by Thursday, continuing into Friday. There
are some indications that the wider valleys, including the Champlain
and lower CT Valleys, could see highs rise into the upper 80s, but
don`t anticipate any 90F readings at this time. Luckily, dewpoints
look to remain fairly comfortable, in the 40s and low/mid 50s.
Shower/thunderstorm chances increase late Friday with a potential
cold frontal passage. Timing of this boundary and how quickly it and
its associated precipitation push south of our region is still
uncertain. Right now, Friday night and Saturday morning look the
most likely timeframe for precipitation, but some guidance indicates
showers could linger into Sunday. Have stayed with the WPC/NBM
forecast for the entire extended period given the uncertainty.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Through 18Z Monday...VFR conditions to mainly prevail through the
first half of the TAF period, with a period of MVFR thereafter.
Light rain showers will continue across the region this afternoon
into the evening. Ceilings generally AOA 3500 ft through 00z, but
some instability could allow for locally heavier showers, with
ceilings occasionally dropping to 2500 ft and visibility 4-6SM. Any
heavier activity would be capable of producing gusty winds to around
30 kt, some lightning, and possibly small hail. Rain ends by 00z or
shortly thereafter, with SCT clouds to lower and thicken 06z-14z as
a weak shortwave trough traverses across the region. Ceilings likely
to lower to 1500-2500 ft during this time; localized IFR possible
but confidence not high enough to include in the TAFs at this time.
Clouds scatter out again after 14z, with VFR to prevail thereafter.
SW to SE winds 4-8 kt early in the TAF period, turning to the N/NW
after 20z with local gusts to 25 kt possible. Winds turn light and
variable after 02z and generally remain under 8 kt through the
remainder of the TAF period.
Outlook...
Monday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Thursday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Thursday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Friday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.
&&
$$
WHAT HAS CHANGED...Kremer
DISCUSSION...Kremer/Hastings
AVIATION...Hastings
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