407
FXUS61 KBTV 092339
AFDBTV
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
739 PM EDT Tue Jun 9 2026
.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
As of 603 PM EDT Tuesday...
Have issued an update this evening, mainly to add thunder
chances to Wednesday`s forecast. Model soundings indicate CAPE
values of 250 to as much as 1000 J/kg tomorrow afternoon. This
should be enough to allow for some thunder, even lacking strong
forcing. Coverage of the showers/thunderstorms is uncertain, as
some CAMs are showing two waves of precipitation with a
substantial break in the middle, while others are more broad
brushed. Regardless, with PWATs approaching 2 inches, briefly
heavy rain will be possible, though no flooding is anticipated.
&&
.KEY MESSAGES...
As of 209 PM EDT Tuesday...
1. Chances for scattered showers start early Wednesday and
persist through Friday.
2. Building heat and humidity through Friday.
3. Cooler over the weekend into next week with a few shower
chances.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
As of 209 PM EDT Tuesday...
KEY MESSAGE 1: Surface and upper level ridges will exit our
region later today, after a sunny and dry day. Some fog will be
possible once again overnight, though not too extensive since
we`re a few days removed from rainfall. Our weather pattern will
become more unsettled for the Wed through Fri timeframe as some
upper level shortwave energy will pass overhead and bring
chances for showers. Meanwhile we will have warming at the
surface and temperatures surging to the upper 80s and lower 90s.
This will lead to some surface based instability and some
thunderstorms will be possible each afternoon. Best forcing will
be on Friday as a surface front will also cross our region
though the surface low will remain well north of our forecast
area. As previous forecaster mentioned, not expecting a wash out
but several chances for showers which should be tied to
shortwaves passing through progressive upper level flow. At this
time not expecting strong or severe storms.
KEY MESSAGE 2: Temperatures will trend warmer the second half
of the work week with increasing humidity Thursday and Friday.
Given the overall unsettled weather pattern with scattered
showers and clouds moving through, have continued to hedge
forecast temps towards MOS guidance, slightly lower than the
NBM. Friday continues to look like the warmest day, when
temperatures will reach into the upper 80s to lower 90s. At the
same time, dewpoints will tick upwards into the mid to upper 60s
as Gulf moisture wraps up and around high pressure over the
western Atlantic. As a result, expect the airmass to feel
noticeably more muggy late week. Heat indices will reach into
the low to mid 90s on Friday in the Champlain Valley, Saint
Lawrence Valley, and Connecticut River Valley. In addition to
the increasing humidity and warmer daytime temperatures,
overnight lows will also be on the warmer side, falling only to
the low to upper 60s. This will limit overnight recoveries, and
increase heat risk to any vulnerable populations.
KEY MESSAGE 3: Large scale troughing slowly builds into the region
this weekend and into next week, gradually lowering temperatures and
bringing multiple rounds of shower chances. While any concerns for
heat headlines will end with the cold front on Friday, the trough
and the associated cooler air will build in gradually so it will be
longer before it feels fully refreshing. After any lingering showers
clear sometime Friday night behind the first shortwave, Saturday
looks to be mostly dry and still relatively warm. Highs look to be
in the mid 70s to upper 80s. The next shortwave looks to come
through late Sunday and Sunday night with another chance for
showers, knocking the temperatures down a bit more behind it. By the
start of next week, the dew points look to be in the 50s and highs
look to be in the 70s and low 80s. Another shortwave with associated
showers is possible for Monday or Tuesday. These shortwaves all look
to be quick moving so there are currently not any flooding
concerns.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Through 00Z Thursday...VFR conditions will prevail through the
first half of the TAF period. The only exception will be at
KMPV, where another round of early morning fog is expected to
bring IFR conditions 08z-12z. Otherwise, clouds will thicken and
lower overnight, with a few stray showers possible at KMSS/KSLK
after 08z. Scattered showers will spread from west to east on
Wednesday and continue through much of the day. Thunderstorms
will be possible as well, especially in the afternoon. Ceilings
will gradually lower to MVFR by mid day and remain so through
the remainder of the TAF period. Visibility 4-6SM in showers,
though lower conditions will be possible in any thunderstorms.
Light and variable winds overnight trend S/SW 5-8 kt after 14z.
Outlook...
Wednesday Night: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Chance
SHRA, Slight chance TSRA.
Thursday: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Chance SHRA,
Slight chance TSRA.
Thursday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance
SHRA.
Friday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance SHRA.
Friday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance SHRA,
Slight chance TSRA.
Saturday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Saturday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Sunday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA.
&&
.CLIMATE...
Record High Temperatures:
June 12:
KMPV: 88/2017
KMSS: 89/2005
Record High Minimum Temperatures:
June 12:
KBTV: 71/2017
KPBG: 67/2017
KSLK: 62/1996
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.
&&
$$
WHAT HAS CHANGED...Hastings
DISCUSSION...Neiles/Myskowski
AVIATION...Hastings
CLIMATE...NWS BTV
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