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FXUS61 KBTV 081841
AFDBTV
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
141 PM EST Sat Nov 8 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
After a relatively quiet day today, a complex system will approach
the region tomorrow into Monday. This system will bring another
round of precipitation and some wintry mixed precipitation to
portions of the region, especially across northern New York.
Unsettled weather will continue through next week, accompanied by
seasonally cool temperatures.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 140 PM EST Saturday...A Winter Weather Advisory is in effect
for most of northern New York from 7AM Sunday to 7AM Monday for
wintry mixed precipitation of snow, sleet, and freezing rain. Total
snow accumulations will generally be between 1 and 2 inches, with up
to a tenth of inch of ice accumulation possible.
After a quiet and cool afternoon, yet another system will impact the
region. Low pressure will continue to lift out of the Ohio Valley
and towards the region, with precipitation beginning to arrive late
tonight into early Sunday morning. At the onset of precipitation,
snowfall can be expected for most locations, with the potential for
some mixed precipitation further south closer to the warm front.
Precipitation is expected to transition to rain throughout the day
tomorrow as the warm front lifts across the region, with some mixed
wintry precipitation possible in the transition zone. Portions of
northern New York, especially in the St. Lawrence Valley, will hold
on to the colder air at the surface, leading to a more extended
period of wintry precipitation, especially freezing rain and the
warmer air aloft moves into the region. A Winter Weather Advisory
has been issued for most of northern New York, with a couple of snow
and ice accumulations up to a tenth of an inch possible. Roads will
likely become slick and hazardous in these areas, so be sure to use
plenty of caution if driving, especially since these are some of the
first wintry conditions of the season. By Sunday night, colder air
will begin to advect into the region, gradually transitioning
precipitation to snow. As with any mixed precipitation event,
there is still some uncertainty on the exact precipitation type
and how quickly transition take place, and this forecast is
especially. tricky and there is very little consensus amongst
models. In addition to the mixed precipitation, winds will be a
bit breezy, especially on the summits. Temperatures on Sunday
will generally be in the mid 30s to mid 40s for highs, with the
coldest temperatures expected across the St. Lawrence Valley and
northern New York, remaining fairly steady heading through the
overnight hours.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
As of 140 PM EST Saturday...Periods of precipitation will continue on
Monday as low pressure starts to pull away from the region. Colder
air will rush in as winds turn to the west and eventually northwest,
changing rain over to snow. Models still differ fairly significantly
on how quickly this change over occurs; the NAM in particular came
in with a much warmer solution on its 12z run, especially from the
Champlain Valley eastward. Meanwhile, the GFS/CMC continue to
indicate cooler temperatures and a quicker transition back to wintry
precipitation. Either way, the St Lawrence Valley and Adirondacks
will have turned back over to all snow by the start of this period.
For the rest of the area, have gone with a model blend, with early
daytime highs in the upper 30s (Champlain Valley) to upper 40s (SE
VT), then slow cooling through the 30s for all but far SE Windsor
County. All but the CT River Valley will see at least a rain/snow
mix by 6-8 pm Monday, with all snow to quickly follow as the evening
goes on. It`ll be quite cold Monday night as temperatures drop into
the mid teen to mid 20s, and snow showers will continue overnight.
Northwest winds will help to focus the bulk of the snow along the
favored upslope areas of the northern Adirondacks and Greens.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 140 PM EST Saturday...Unsettled weather will dominate just
about the entire work week as we will remain under the influence of
an upper trough. The upper trough will cross directly overhead on
Tuesday, keeping snow showers around, especially in the higher
terrain. Continuing cold air advection will make for a cold and
brisk day, with highs only in the upper 20s to upper 30s, and
north/northwest winds gusting to 25+ mph. Winds switching a little
more toward the west/southwest will likely lead to a lake band which
should waver around across northern NY through much of mid week.
Once the trough axis moves by, we`ll remain on the western periphery
under cyclonic flow, with upper shortwaves occasionally dropping
through the region. Hence, shower chances will continue right into
late week. While Tuesday will be the coldest day of the period,
temperatures will be below normal through the entire week.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Through 18z Sunday...VFR conditions (except MVFR ceilings at KMSS
early) will prevail through the first 12-18 hours of the TAF period.
Then wintry mixed precipitation spreads from north to south,
starting roughly 10z Sun. Ceilings will quickly lower to 1200-2500
ft as snow first moves in early Sunday morning, with visibility
likely 3-5sm, though lower in heavier precipitation. Snow will mix
with sleet and freezing rain by mid/late morning, then continue
through the remainder of the TAF period. Exception will be KRUT/KBTV
where temperatures should warm enough to change precipitation to
mainly rain by 16z or so. Breezy W/NW winds will continue to gust up
to 20 kt through the remaining daylight hours Saturday, then light
and variable overnight and early Sunday morning. Winds will begin to
increase late in the TAF period out of the E/NE generally 6-12 kt.
Outlook...
Sunday Night: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Definite RA,
Definite FZRA.
Monday: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Likely SHSN, Chance
SHRA.
Monday Night: Mainly MVFR and IFR, with local VFR possible.
Likely SHSN.
Veterans Day: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR and IFR possible.
Likely SHSN.
Tuesday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHSN.
Wednesday: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. Definite SHRA,
Chance SHSN.
Wednesday Night: Mainly MVFR, with areas IFR possible. Likely
SHRA, Likely SHSN.
Thursday: Mainly MVFR, with areas IFR possible. Likely SHRA,
Likely SHSN.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...Winter Weather Advisory from 7 AM Sunday to 7 AM EST Monday
for NYZ026-027-029>031-034-087.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Kremer
NEAR TERM...Kremer
SHORT TERM...Hastings
LONG TERM...Hastings
AVIATION...Hastings
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