000
FXUS61 KBTV 260908
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
408 AM EST Sun Jan 26 2020

.SYNOPSIS...
Areas of fog will be likely across the North Country this
morning before dissipating as winds increase out of the
southwest today. Widespread snow showers are possible this
afternoon into the evening hours across northern Vermont &
New York. Accumulations between a dusting to 4 inches will be
possible, with the highest amounts across the Adirondack and
northern Green Mountains. Additional snow showers are likely
through Tuesday. By mid-week quiet weather returns with
seasonable late January conditions anticipated.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 405 AM EST Sunday...Radar imagery shows most
precipitation has pushed well off to our north, however webcams
across eastern Vermont, from Westmore down towards
Topsham/Thetford, show a slushy mix on roads with rain/snow and
areas of drizzle being reported on surface observations. Most of
this light rain/snow should dissipate over the next couple of
hours as model soundings and satellite imagery show dry slot
continuing to push in. Regardless, areas of slick travel are
possible on untreated roadways through the morning hours.

For the remainder of the night, areas of fog/low clouds are likely
across the North Country as plenty of low level moisture remains and
winds are relatively light. This will keep temperatures nearly
steady in the low to mid 30s through the morning hours. Winds will
begin to increase out of the south/southwest after sunrise, allowing
fog and low clouds to scatter out. Temperatures tomorrow should warm
a few degrees from the relatively mild start with highs in the mid
to upper 30s. Shortwave energy associated with the upper level low
will spark rain/snow showers across much of northern New York and
northern portions of Vermont this afternoon. Enhanced moisture
coming off Lake Ontario with provide the focus for accumulating
snowfall across the Adirondack and Green Mountains, with favorable
upslope snows across the western slopes of the Adirondacks. Snowfall
amounts between 2-4 inches are expected in these areas. Boundary
layer temperatures during the day will be marginal for any real
accumulations in the St Lawrence and Champlain Valleys with highs in
the mid to upper 30s. Expect between a dusting to one inch, mainly
on grassy surfaces. Lingering snow showers are likely through the
overnight hours with temperatures falling into the upper 20s to
right around freezing. Froude numbers <1 suggest blocked flow for
the Champlain Valley Sunday night, with better chances for light
accumulating snow for the western slopes of the Green Mountains.
Monday will feature another mild day with temperatures largely in
the low to mid 30s for valley locations and low to mid 20s for the
high terrain. Continued chances for upslope snow showers remain with
additional accumulations between 1-3 inches.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 403 AM EST Sunday...Mountain snow showers will persist through
Monday night into Tuesday morning as another shortwave and lobe of
moisture rotate around upper low pressure over the Canadian
Maritimes. A couple of inches of additional snow accumulation will
be possible over the higher terrain. Much cooler temperatures are
expected; Monday night lows will be in the upper teens to mid 20s,
then warming into the mid and upper 20s on Tuesday.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 403 AM EST Sunday...Dry and seasonably cool weather will
prevail through the middle of the week as we`ll see high pressure
settling across the region for Wednesday through Friday. Daytime
highs will be in the upper teens to upper 20s, while overnight lows
will be quite chilly in the single digits owing to optimal
radiational cooling. Still watching the potential for another system
for next weekend, but lots of spread in model solutions, not only
model to model but also run to run. The latest GFS and many of its
ensemble members indicate a potential coastal system, which would
bring a good slug of snow to the North Country for the weekend.
Meanwhile, the 26/00z ECMWF keeps the low much further south since
it does not phase the northern and southern streams, in which case
the North Country would only get some light snow as the northern
upper trough moves through late in the weekend. The CMC lies
somewhere in the middle, though trending more toward the ECMWF than
the GFS. Given this wide spread, have stayed with a model blend for
the Saturday and Sunday timeframe.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Through 06Z Monday...Mainly MVFR/IFR through the TAF period.
Satellite imagery and surface observations show lots of low
level clouds across the airspace with ceilings ranging between
200-1500ft, with a few locations reporting ceilings ~3000ft.
Ceilings and visibilities should remain generally IFR/LIFR
through the overnight hours as areas of fog have begun to
develop, even with thick cloud cover, and winds remain light and
variable. A few scattered rain and/or snow showers may impact
the TAF sites for the next few hours, but radar shows these
winding down with minimal precipitation through 18z.
Visibilities reductions will be generally between 2-5 miles in
areas of fog and precipitation. Improvement in aviation
conditions are likely tomorrow morning as winds increase out of
the south/southwest between 5-10 kt. Ceilings will lift to
MVFR/VFR after 14z. This will be short lived as rain and/or snow
showers spread across the airspace after 18z, and conditions
drop once again into MVFR/IFR categories.

Outlook...

Monday: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. Chance SHSN, Chance SHRA.
Monday Night: Mainly MVFR, with local VFR possible. Chance SHSN.
Tuesday: Mainly MVFR, with local VFR possible. Slight chance
SHSN.
Tuesday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Thursday: VFR. NO SIG WX.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LaRocca
NEAR TERM...LaRocca
SHORT TERM...Hastings
LONG TERM...Hastings
AVIATION...LaRocca