355
FXUS61 KBTV 242357
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
757 PM EDT Fri Oct 24 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A cooler and showery pattern will persist into the weekend, though
additional precipitation totals will be mostly light and
confined to the mountains. Lake effect showers will enhance the
precipitation at times across parts of northern New York. High
elevation snow showers will occur, supporting light snow
accumulations on mountain summits. Conditions look to trend
drier, heading into early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
As of 227 PM EDT Friday...A large broad upper low, generally
centered over northern Quebec, continues to slowly push
eastward, bringing cool and showery conditions to the region.
Another weak shortwave pushing into northern New York with some
scattered showers across the Adirondacks and northern Vermont.
Showers will continue through the afternoon and evening with
some general clearing overnight. Precipitation totals will be
light with only a few hundreths possible. Some lake effect
enhancement from Lake Ontario will be possible in St. Lawrence
County, but the main band of lake effect showers should stay to
our south. Cooling air aloft at the 925mb level has allowed
mountain summits and ridges to cool below freezing, and this
trend should continue through the weekend with northwesterly
flow ushering cooler and drier air. Consequently, snow levels
have lowered below 2500ft agl with a light dusting of snow
already observed on Mt. Mansfield. Snow accumulations will be
little to none. In the overnight, snow levels may fall towards
2000ft agl, allowing a few flakes to pass through some
Adirondack towns, but accumulations will be negligible.

Flurries and rain showers will continue tomorrow for both the
Adirondacks and Greens as another shortwave to the north enhances
precipitation chances (35-45%), though prevailing coverage will be
confined to the northern upslope areas, with more isolated showers
elsewhere in northern Vermont and New York. Atmospheric moisture
will become more shallow with the drying of the mid to upper levels
resulting in any precipitation chances likely falling as drizzle or
mist, with some riming possible on the higher summits. Winds will
shift towards more northerly with winds continuing to be relatively
calm under 10 mph. Daytime highs into the weekend will be in the
upper 40s to low 50s, with overnight lows in the upper 20s to mid
30s. Overnight lows will be dependent on the lake band cloud cover,
especially in northern New York, with previous nights slightly
warmer than modeled due to increased cloud cover.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 227 PM EDT Friday...High pressure will build into the
region from the west with winds remaining northerly between the
high and departing upper low. This will keep some precipitation
chances (around 20-30%) along the international border and
northern Greens and Adirondacks. Snow levels will remain at
2500ft agl, meaning summit level showers should fall as snow or
rim ice due to shallow moisture. Shower coverage will be fairly
limited as the main area of forcing continues to drift eastward
during the day Sunday. With the northerly winds, and Lake
Champlain still around 13C, and 925mb temperatures around 0C, a
lake cloud could develop in the morning Sunday oriented north to
south into southern Chittenden and Addison Counties. Impacts
would be just some light rain enhancement and lower clouds.
Confidence is low to medium in the lake cloud development, but
the ingredients would be present. Snow levels will continue to
fall towards 2000ft agl in the Adirondacks and central and
northern Greens overnight as temperatures fall. Depending on
cloud cover, Sunday night could be a good radiational cooling
night, which would further push snow levels lower under any
passing showers. Temperatures Sunday will be in the upper 40s to
low 50s, with overnight lows in the mid 20s to low 30s, with
perhaps some low 20s in the portions of the Adirondacks.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 203 PM EDT Friday...Upper level low pressure system or trough
remain over our region through the period, leading to continued
cloudiness with light precipitation. Not a lot of model consistency
in the long term as models appear to be struggling with upper level
trough, and also tropical system and how systems will interact. Have
stuck close to NBM guidance. At this time driest days look to be
Monday and Tuesday with surface high pressure ridging into the area.
Beyond the point there will probably be a low pressure system
tracking somewhere along the east coast and possible impacting the
northeastern CONUS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Through 00Z Sunday...VFR conditions prevail early in the TAF
period, but anticipate lowering to MVFR. Isolated to scattered
showers continue across the region this evening, though they
should gradually lessen in coverage as we head into the
overnight. Brief periods of MVFR ceilings possible should any
shower move directly over a terminal. However, expect ceilings
to lower to MVFR late tonight into early Saturday morning,
generally from 03z at KSLK to after 12z at KMPV. Only KRUT to
remain VFR through the period. There are some signals that KSLK
could well drop to IFR for a few hours late tonight, but have
just kept mention to SCT008 in TAF due to uncertainty. Showers
will redevelop during the day Saturday, though they should be
mostly focused in the northern mountains, and lack of extensive
coverage precludes mention in the TAFs at this time. Winds to be
light and variable overnight, trending N/NW 5-8 kt after 14z
Sat.

Outlook...

Saturday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight
chance SHRA, Slight chance SHSN.
Sunday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight chance SHRA.
Sunday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Slight chance
SHRA, Slight chance SHSN.
Monday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. NO SIG WX.
Monday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. Slight chance SHRA.
Tuesday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance SHRA.
Wednesday: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Slight chance
SHRA.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
The TYX radar is down until further notice after a hardware
failure occurred. Replacement parts have been ordered and will
be installed. There is no ETA on its return to service.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Danzig
NEAR TERM...Danzig
SHORT TERM...Danzig
LONG TERM...Neiles
AVIATION...Hastings
EQUIPMENT...BTV