823
FXUS61 KBTV 160650
AFDBTV
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
250 AM EDT Sat May 16 2026
.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
As of 249 AM EDT Saturday...
No major changes have been made to the forecast. Isolated to
scattered showers are possible late this afternoon and evening, but
coverage has decreased slightly from the previous forecast.
&&
.KEY MESSAGES...
As of 249 AM EDT Saturday...
1. Seasonably warm temperatures are expected this weekend,
with a few isolated to scattered showers possible later this
afternoon into the evening.
2. Above normal temperatures are expected for the first half of
the week ahead.
3. Thunderstorm chances increase late Tuesday through
Wednesday as a front moves through the region.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
As of 249 AM EDT Saturday...
KEY MESSAGE 1: A weak shortwave moving across the region will bring
some isolated to scattered showers to the region late this afternoon
into the evening, with northern New York more likely to see shower
activity. The latest CAM guidance has decreased in the areal
coverage of showers, especially across Vermont. Despite the shower
chances, any precipitation would be quite light, generally less than
0.1 inches with measurable precipitation most likely across northern
New York. In addition to the shower chances, breezy conditions are
expected this afternoon with a developing low level jet overhead.
While there is some uncertainty as to how much winds mix down to the
surface, localized wind gusts of 25 to 35 mph are possible across
northern New York tonight, with some breezy conditions continuing
into Sunday across the region. Temperatures this weekend will be
quite pleasant, with high temperatures generally warming into the
70s both Saturday and Sunday, with a few locations nearing 80.
Despite the warm air temperatures, water temperatures are still
quite cold so use caution if recreating this weekend.
KEY MESSAGE 2: A warming trend will continue into the first half of
next week as a warm front lifts across the region on Monday. Tuesday
looks to be the warmest day, with high temperatures climbing into
the 80s for most locations, with 925mb temperatures around 20C to
25C. These temperatures will be the warmest of the year so far,
especially after a cool start to the month, so it is important to
remember to stay safe in warmer temperatures by staying hydrated and
take frequent breaks if working outside. Dewpoints will also be
trending upwards going into Tuesday, making it feel quite humid
especially for this time of year. The warmth and humidity will
result in increasing instability, which will support the development
of showers and possible thunderstorms for Tuesday, which could
impact how warm temperatures climb during the day Tuesday.
KEY MESSAGE 3: As heat and humidity build Tuesday, so will instability
with a front projected to drop out of Canada. Dew points will
likely range in the 50s and 60s ahead of the front with residual
heating from daytime possibly continuing to trigger convection as
heights fall aloft. Tuesday night into Wednesday, models continue to
show a frontal passage that will likely be a focal point for
convection as it tracks through the region. Timing of the front is
currently during the day hours suggesting added instability
associated with heating is probable. This pattern shows some
potential for a few stronger variety storms with highs in excess of
80 degrees again Wednesday, but changes in frontal timing could
limit or move the window of concern. So Tuesday/Wednesday will be a
"keep an eye on" for now situation.
Later next week, drier conditions and more seasonable temperatures
are favored to return.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Through 06Z Sunday...Clearing skies and ample moisture are creating
conditions for nuisance fog to form. Conditions have generally been
intermittent VFR/IFR in the wake of exiting cloud cover at
SLK/MPV/PBG/BTV with more persistent VFR elsewhere. Some 20kt winds
500ft AGL are likely interfering with radiational cooling keeping
conditions more mixed at the terminals that are in and out of IFR
conditions. This will continue through at least 08Z with potential
for a breakout to VFR at BTV/PBG and more pervasive IFR or lower at
MPV/SLK. Fog clears at daybreak with mostly clear skies through much
of the day hours. After 22Z, some shower chances return with a weak
trough tracking through the region.
Outlook...
Sunday: VFR. Windy with gusts to 30 kt. NO SIG WX.
Sunday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Monday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
Monday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
Tuesday: VFR. Chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA.
Tuesday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA.
Wednesday: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Likely SHRA,
Slight chance TSRA.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.
&&
$$
WHAT HAS CHANGED...Kremer
DISCUSSION...Kremer/Boyd
AVIATION...Boyd
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