166
FXUS61 KBTV 160004
AFDBTV
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
704 PM EST Sat Nov 15 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
A multi faceted weather system is bearing down on the north
country this afternoon, bringing a variety of hazards to our
region. Precipitation will move into our region from the west
this evening and spread across the area overnight. Mixed
precipitation, changing to rain eventually, then snow as cold
air moves in and system exits eastward on Sunday. Behind this
system persistent northwesterly flow will bring snow to the
upslope regions of the Adirondacks and Greens from Sunday
through Tuesday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 230 PM EST Saturday...Temperatures have reached the lower
30s to upper 30s this afternoon across northern New York and
Vermont. Parts of southern Vermont have even reached the 40s. A
dynamic system is approaching from the west, and is currently
producing showers and thunderstorms in western New York and
eastern Ontario. As this system moves into our area, we will
have a variety of precipitation types. Can not completely rule
out a rumble of thunder especially in the southern St Lawrence
valley due to the history of these storms. Freezing rain will
continue to be possible in the Adirondacks, Greens, and areas
east and northeast of the Greens through early Sunday morning as
warm air overruns colder air trapped at the surface in these
areas. Freezing rain accumulations will be mostly up to 0.2" in
cold pockets of the Adirondacks and northern Greens. Lows
overnight should dip into the mid 20s to mid 30s around dawn
Sunday morning, but most of the night temperatures will be mild
and above freezing, meaning areas that aren`t cold enough at the
surface for freezing rain will have mostly rain and very little
snow. During the day on Sunday, low pressure moving off to the
northeast will be pulling cold air into the region from the
northwest. Highs will likely occur early in the day in the mid
30s to mid 40s followed by temperatures falling through the
afternoon, allowing for rain to change over to snow in all
locations by the afternoon. Winds and cold air advection will be
increasing Sunday afternoon and overnight with gradients
supporting gusts to 20-40 mph in the Champlain Valley Sunday
night and gusts topping out 20-30 mph elsewhere. With lows
forecast in the upper teens to lower 30s Sunday night, this
could result in some single digit wind chills in the Adirondacks
and teens/low 20s elsewhere as well as blowing snow on mountain
passes. As the mixed precipitation threat comes to an end, will
need to consider new winter headline for accumulating snow in
the higher elevations of the Adirondacks and northern Greens.
Totals by Monday morning on northwest facing slopes will be 8 to
12 inches with up to 18 inches not out of the question. Other
higher elevation locations will only have 2 to 6 inches of
snowfall and areas outside the high elevations will have a
dusting to 2 inches.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
As of 240 PM EST Saturday...Upslope snow and gusty gradient
winds will likely continue on Monday and Monday night as low
pressure curls into Atlantic Canada. An additional trace to 4
inches is possible throughout the day with highs only reaching
the 30s under the cold Canadian air mass. Snow will likely
decrease in coverage and intensity throughout the course of the
day. Areas above 1500 feet in the northern Greens could
accumulate another 4 to 7 inches of snow.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Cyclonic northwest flow will continue through much of the week
behind the weekend system, with light snow showers confined to
the higher terrain, mainly in northern Vermont. A brief
tightening of the pressure gradient could lead to some breezy
conditions Tuesday as the weekend low pulls further from the
area. Gusts in the eastern downsloping areas of the Adirondacks
near Plattsburgh, and along the eastern Greens could be up to 20
to 25 mph, particularly in the early morning. Winds will weaken
and become more confined to around Lake Champlain and summit
levels late Tuesday. Embedded in the northwest flow regime,
isolated areas of energy will pass through up to Wednesday night
before high pressure nudges in. Caa should keep precipitation
in the upslope areas as snow under any passing shower. Strong
caa aloft at 925-850mb prog temperatures -4C to -6C which will
support snow showers and surface high temperatures near 30 to
the upper 30s with overnight lows near 20 to the upper 20s for
the beginning to mid week. By late week high pressure in the
Mid- Atlantic will draw some more moist and warmer air in to the
region as our flow pattern becomes southerly for Thursday with
potentially some drying, though still cloudy, conditions. Our
next weather system which looks to arrive by Friday with
temperatures moderating into the 40s. Current consensus shows
some potential for a wintry mix near the international border
Friday evening driven by cooler surface temperatures, as air
aloft will be southerly and warmer. The position of a transient
low in northern Ontario/Quebec will be the determining factor to
what ptype is present. A northernly low track will allow our
system to also track more north placing us in the warm sector
and subsequently mainly rain which appears to be the main
ensemble trend over the last few runs. This system is still a
week out and has some timing and thermal profile uncertainty,
but we will keep you updated in the coming day.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Through 00Z Monday...Widespread VFR/MVFR conditions will quickly
deteriorate this evening as wintry precipitation spreads from
west to east. This has already moves into the St Lawrence
Valley and it will reach the Champlain Valley by 01z, and
eastern VT by 02z. Terminals in the wider valleys, including
KMSS/KPBG/KBTV/KRUT will remain mostly rain. The higher
terminals of KSLK/KEFK/KMPV will start out as a mix of SN/PL for
a few hours before changing over to mainly FZRA, though KEFK
could hold onto the SN/PL for longer than anticipated.
Regardless, surface temperatures rise overnight, changing all
wintry precipitation to plain rain by the time it starts
tapering to showers, roughly 04z-08z. Showery conditions will
give way to upslope snow as temperatures drop and winds turn to
the northwest; expect all terminals to return to snow by 20z
Sun, with precip most persistent at KMSS/KEFK/KSLK/KMPV.
Visibility will generally be 4-6SM in rain, and 2-4SM in any
wintry mix. Once precipitation goes over to all snow on Sun,
expect 1-3SM visibilities. Ceilings will fall rapidly with onset
of precipitation. Most confident in MVFR at all terminals, with
IFR/LIFR likely at KMSS/KSLK and perhaps KEFK, especially
03z-14z Sun. However, IFR/LIFR can`t be totally ruled out,
though lowest chances would be at KPBG, especially once winds
turn to the west/northwest. South/southeast winds should start
to shift toward the W/NW around 08z at KMSS/KSLK and closer to
12z at KEFK/KMPV. Once winds shift, they will increase to 8-14
kt with gusts of 20-30 kt through the remainder of the TAF
period.
Outlook...
Sunday Night: Mainly MVFR and IFR, with areas VFR possible.
Definite SHSN.
Monday: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. Chance SHSN.
Monday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance SHSN.
Tuesday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance SHSN.
Tuesday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHSN.
Thursday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA, Slight chance SHSN.
&&
.EQUIPMENT...
NOAA Weather Radio station WXM-44, transmitting from Mt.
Ascutney, Vermont, on frequency 162.475 MHz is non-operational
at this time. NWS technicians have diagnosed the problem, but
repairs will likely not be able to occur for quite some time due
to circumstances beyond our control. Therefore, the time of
return to service is currently unknown. The following NOAA
Weather Radio transmitters may be able to provide service during
this outage: WWG 50 from Burke Mtn, VT at 162.425 MHz and WNG
546 from Hanover, NH at 162.525 MHz.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...Winter Weather Advisory until 7 AM EST Sunday for VTZ003-004-
006>008-010-016>021.
NY...Winter Weather Advisory until 1 AM EST Sunday for NYZ026-027-
030-031-034.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Neiles
NEAR TERM...Neiles
SHORT TERM...Neiles
LONG TERM...Danzig
AVIATION...Hastings
EQUIPMENT...Team BTV
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