749
FXUS61 KBTV 261841
AFDBTV
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
241 PM EDT Thu Mar 26 2026
.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
As of 241 PM EDT Thursday...
Liquid amounts were increased across the front as it moves through
tonight. Amounts will mostly remain below 0.5 inches except for a
few locations in southern Vermont where up to 0.75 inches may be
possible.
&&
.KEY MESSAGES...
As of 241 PM EDT Thursday...
1. Widespread light rainfall is expected this evening and
tonight. Rain will change over to snow as temperatures fall with
very light accumulations possible.
2. Much colder temperatures are expected for Friday through
Saturday night with most locations remaining below freezing for the
entire time period. Wind chills will be quite cold Friday morning.
3. Following a mainly dry start to the week, a seasonably warm
and wetter period is expected midweek.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
As of 241 PM EDT Thursday...
KEY MESSAGE 1: Precipitation is spreading west to east this afternoon
with showers moving into the Champlain Valley by 3 PM. An impulse is
moving along a quasi-stationary boundary draped along the Canadian
border as a deeper trough approaches. Westerly flow aloft may cause
shadowing initially in the Champlain Valley and for areas east of the
Greens before flow shifts more northwesterly this evening.
Coincidentally, model timing of the stronger impulse associated with
the primary trough will be moving through the region. Some more
favorable dynamics for precip output are phasing over Vermont this
evening which has resulted in an increase in QPF expected. Still,
most locations will see less than 0.5" but portions of southern
Vermont may range 0.5-0.75". There`s about a 25% chance that
portions of eastern Vermont range 0.33-0.66" should flow be stronger
across the boundary. Lowest amounts are favored in the northern
Champlain Valley where shadowing will be most pronounced with totals
ranging 0.1-0.33". Elsewhere, 0.25-0.50" is favored. As cold air
advection increases tonight, rain will change over to snow with a
dusting to 0.2 inches favored for most places in northern Vermont
and northern New York while up to 3 inches is possible for the
summits of the Adirondacks and northern Greens.
KEY MESSAGE 2: Breezy northerly winds behind the cold front Friday will
usher in unseasonably cold temperatures. The daily high for Friday
will likely be midnight tonight with cold air advection increasing
through day break before winds begin to taper down. Gusts will
generally range 20 to 30 mph Friday morning resulting in some cold
wind chills in the single digits for portions of northern New York
and teens for much of Vermont. As -14 to -18C temperatures settle
overhead at 925mb and 850mb respectively, surface temperatures will
likely remain below freezing for most locations Friday (southern
Vermont likely to range 32-36 degrees Friday) through Saturday
night. Lows tonight are favored to dip into the single digits for
the Adirondacks and northeastern Vermont with 10-15 degrees for most
other locations` projected to dip into the teens for Saturday night.
KEY MESSAGE 3: A weather pattern featuring faster than typical westerly
flow aloft will continue into early next week, allowing for weak
fronts and light mixed precipitation to be possible with marginally
cold air pushing out of southern Canada when low level flow turns
northerly. This pattern should be disrupted by Wednesday when the
jet stream retreats farther north and entirely Pacific air, rather
than mix of Polar and Pacific, overspreads northern New York and
Vermont. Currently there are limited signals for significant
weather. Only the very wettest model guidance (under 5%) suggesting
heavy rainfall, especially for the Adirondacks.
That being said, a quasi-stationary front may set up to our
southwest with a long duration of overrunning precipitation
possible. The wettest cluster in the 12Z ensemble guidance shows a
24 hour precipitation average beginning Wednesday afternoon of over
an inch in western portions of northern New York, indicative of the
potential soaking rain during this period. That being said, there is
large variation in the position of the front, especially moving into
Wednesday night. Therefore, not only precipitation amounts but
temperatures become more uncertain, which could trend back to wintry
from north to south as shallow cold air is pushed southward. There
is a slight lean towards the warmer scenarios based on the latest
data, but it remains worth paying attention to as we approach this
wetter period.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Through 18Z Friday...A nearly stationary front just north of the
airspace will support periods of rain before it slips south of the
area tonight. Steadiest rain appears to be favored in southern
portions of the airspace, where both ceilings and visibilities are
more likely to be reduced into the MVFR category south of the front,
mainly from 22Z to 02Z. The wind shift from south-southwest to
northerly flow will occur between 22Z and 04Z from north to south,
with gusty winds expecting as the boundary passes with
frequent gusts of 20 to 25 knots expected. A brief changeover
of rain to snow before precipitation ends is possible, with
greatest probabilities at EFK.
In the vicinity of the front, especially just north of it, IFR
ceilings with cloud bases near 600 to 900 feet are expected at
most terminals. Expected duration of IFR conditions remains
short, generally 1 to 5 hours, with predominately MVFR ceilings
otherwise. Given the timing of the front, MSS is the site most
favored to see IFR conditions before 00Z (about a 50% chance).
Expect a marked improvement to VFR as clouds gradually scatter
towards daybreak, with a BKN MVFR cloud deck scattering last in
central/eastern Vermont and Adirondacks by the end of the TAF
period.
Outlook...
Friday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Saturday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Saturday Night: VFR. Chance SHSN.
Sunday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Sunday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Monday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA.
Monday Night: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Slight chance
SHSN.
Tuesday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA, Slight chance SHSN.
&&
.EQUIPMENT...
The Colchester Reef meteorological station is out of service.
This site is not serviced by the NWS. An estimated return to
service is May 1st. Please contact us if you observe winds
significantly deviating from the recreational forecast.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.
&&
$$
WHAT HAS CHANGED...Boyd
DISCUSSION...Boyd/Kutikoff
AVIATION...Kutikoff
EQUIPMENT...NWS BTV
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