666
FXUS61 KBTV 032313
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
713 PM EDT Sun May 3 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
As of 248 PM EDT Sunday...

No significant changes.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
As of 248 PM EDT Sunday...

1. Mostly quiet weather through tomorrow night.

2. Showers arrive Tuesday afternoon and evening, preceded by
windy conditions.

3. No major impacts or significant weather expected late week
into next weekend, as pattern continues to support unsettled
conditions with below normal temperatures.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
As of 248 PM EDT Sunday...

KEY MESSAGE 1: Weak ridging dominates through tomorrow night, bringing
mostly dry weather. The exception is tonight, where a few scattered
showers move through. They will be light with only a few hundredths
of precipitation falling at most. These will be snow showers in the
mountains where a light dusting is possible in the highest peaks.
Temperatures will return to seasonable normals for Monday with highs
in the 60s.

KEY MESSAGE 2: A cold front pushes into the region Tuesday afternoon
and evening, bringing a line of showers. While a few scattered
showers are possible earlier, the organized precipitation looks to
enter northern New York in the afternoon and Vermont in the evening.
Enough heating looks to occur ahead of it that CAPE values rise to
around 250 to 500 J. The limiting feature for storm development will
be moisture, with surface dew points looking to be in the 40s and
low 50s at the time of the precipitation`s arrival. While there is
abundant deep layer shear, due to the limited instability, strong to
severe storms currently look unlikely, though a few rumbles of
thunder are possible. The area to watch would be if something
develops along a pre-frontal trough in the afternoon, something akin
to what the NAM3 has, though its dew points currently look too high.
However the scenario will be watched as it enters the range of the
other CAMs. Widespread showers should occur Tuesday night as the
front slows down across the region, but by that point, the
precipitation should be mostly stratiform and synoptically forced.
Out ahead of the precipitation, a strong southwesterly low-level jet
moves overhead. Gusts in the 25-35 mph look likely, with locally
higher values possible in the St. Lawrence Valley and northern
Adirondacks due to channeling and downsloping.

KEY MESSAGE 3: Not much change from the previous long term outlook as
the trend of a less phased and progressive trough passage continues
for mid to late week. Ridging across the western CONUS will lead to
positively tilted troughing across the Northeast CONUS with several
embedded shortwaves. Phasing between a northern stream of energy and
a southern stream of energy riding up from the central Plains
continues to trend unlikely with a more eastward shift to the
central axis of moisture. The NAEFS ensemble denotes this well with
moisture anomalies more centered over New Hampshire and southern New
England. Regardless, shortwave passages will trend temperatures
cooler for the later portion of the week with the coolest day based
on thickness values and 925 to 850 mb thermal profiles likely on
Friday. Daytime highs will be in the upper 30s to near 40 for
summits and in the low to mid 50s for the wider valleys.
Precipitation chances, regardless of system phasing, WPC still
appears to denote chance pops in the higher terrain and chance pops
in the valleys which is reasonable given cooling aloft and low level
instability which should garner some isolated to scattered showers
through the end of the week. This, however, does show a slight trend
down in PoPs from previous runs, showing the uncertainty of the late
week systems. Given the lack of strong high pres directly overhead
and the potential for clouds, the probability of widespread frost in
areas where the growing season has started is low attm.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Through 00Z Tuesday...Mostly quiet weather forecast through
Monday night. Widespread VFR conditions expected for the next
few hours with ceilings around 6500-8500 feet above ground level
or higher. Winds are a mixed bag this evening as mixing slows
and stops, though some sites are still reporting some westerly
winds. Winds will gradually shift out of the south- southwest
overnight this evening as warm air advection and an upper level
shortwave arrive across the region tonight. This is also
expected to lower ceilings to around 2500-3500 feet and bring an
increased chance for showers (visibilities likely 4-6 miles or
higher) around 03Z-12Z Monday at all sites except MPV and RUT,
which should be largely missed by precip and low level moisture
over the next 24 hours. A modest west- southwesterly low level
jet will also accompany the influx of warmth and moisture,
resulting in likely LLWS at all sites except BTV and EFK, though
it is still not out of the question at these sites, either.

Surface winds will also increase out of the south and southwest
around 09Z-16Z Monday onwards with gusts 15-30 knots anticipated
by Monday afternoon, highest across northern New York (more
directly under the jet). A second round of MVFR ceilings is
possible Monday morning and afternoon associated with a warm
frontal boundary. Precip chances are slightly lower with this
round. For SLK, the break between these two MVFR ceiling periods
is expected to be brief or even non- existent. But for BTV,
ceilings may lean more VFR and occasionally dip into MVFR
territory with the passage of the shortwave, then the front.
Most likely period for cigs 2500-3500 feet with the front will
be 12Z through 19Z Monday.


Outlook...

Monday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday: VFR. Chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA.
Tuesday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Definite
SHRA.
Wednesday: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. Definite SHRA.
Wednesday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance
SHRA.
Thursday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance SHRA.
Thursday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance
SHRA.
Friday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance SHRA.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$

WHAT HAS CHANGED...Myskowski
DISCUSSION...Danzig/Myskowski
AVIATION...Storm