069
FXUS61 KBTV 062337
AFDBTV
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
737 PM EDT Wed May 6 2026
.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
As of 245 AM EDT Wednesday...
Refined timing of precipitation for today. Steady rainfall is
expected to continue this morning, gradually coming to an end
from west to east this afternoon. Total precipitation amounts
are on track.
&&
.KEY MESSAGES...
As of 245 AM EDT Wednesday...
1. Expect a wet day today with several daily record
precipitation amounts forecast to be broken. Outside of some
ponding in poor drainage areas, no flooding is anticipated.
2. Cooler temperatures are expected the second half of the week
with some patchy frost possible.
3. An unsettled pattern anticipated for days 4 thru 7 but the
probability of widespread hazardous or significant weather is low.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
As of 245 AM EDT Wednesday...
KEY MESSAGE 1: Today will be a cooler and wet day with steady
rain anticipated to last much of the morning into the early
afternoon. A frontal boundary (oriented SW to NE around the
Saint Lawrence Valley as of 2 AM) will very slowly shift
eastward through the day and into this evening. A wave of low
pressure developing along the boundary (located over the Ohio
River Valley as of early this morning) will ride northeastward
along the boundary, serving as an additional focal point for
convergence over our CWA today. The duration of today`s rainfall
will be prolonged by nearly boundary- parallel upper-level
flow, which will limit the eastward progression of the frontal
boundary to a very slow pace. Rain will eventually come to an
end from west to east during the early afternoon hours in
northern NY, and late afternoon to early evening hours in VT.
Rainfall rates today will intensify at times to 0.1-0.2
inch/hour during the daylight hours over central portions of our
CWA. This is due to deep lift (enhanced surface convergence
with a coupled jet structure aloft/strong upper-level
divergence) occurring within a moist airmass (precipitable
water values over 1.0 inch). Storm total rainfall amounts today
will range from a 0.25-0.75 inch in the Saint Lawrence Valley
and southeastern Vermont, to 0.75-1.25 inch over the northern
Adirondacks, Champlain Valley, and northern Vermont. These
precipitation amounts would break several daily precipitation
records, including at Burlington, Plattsburgh, and Saranac Lake
(see Climate section for more). Rivers will rise in response to
these rainfall amounts, but forecasts from the Northeast River
Forecast Center keep all of our area rivers well within banks,
and no river flooding is expected.
With the front forecast to bisect our forecast area today, afternoon
daily high temperatures will range from the 40s for northern NY and
northwestern VT to the 60s in southeastern Vermont. With respect to
24 hour daily high temperatures, these have already been reached at
midnight for much of our forecast area, and temps will fall for the
remainder of the day for all except southeastern Vermont.
KEY MESSAGE 2: After the passage of today`s cold front, temperatures
Thursday through Saturday will be cooler than seasonal norms for
early May. Highs will be in the 50s to around 60 for most of the
area, and lows will be in the 30s to around 40. Broad cyclonic flow
aloft will keep skies at least partly cloudy overnight with some 5-
15 knot winds just off the surface. This will prevent any strong
radiational cooling nights with widespread frost development,
but some patchy frost is possible. The best chance for frost
will be Friday morning, though frost is not forecast in any
areas that have started their "growing season". As per our
frost- freeze program, the only area that has started the
growing season at this point is the Champlain Valley. Therefore,
no headlines are anticipated at this point. However, anyone
with sensitive vegetation should monitor the low temperatures
forecast over the next few days.
KEY MESSAGE 3: The synoptic scale pattern acrs the conus wl feature
mid/upper lvl ridge acrs the west and deep trof from the Great Lakes
into the northeast conus. This general west/northwest flow aloft
with embedded s/w`s and lobes of enhanced mid lvl moisture wl keep
fa unsettled for upcoming weekend into next week. Latest 00z trends
have tracked Saturdays system slightly further south with better
dynamics/moisture, but mid/upper lvl trof passage and lingering
moisture wl produce some scattered showers. Probably not a washout,
but not completely dry either.
The highest probability and greatest confidence for another
widespread rainfall is late Sunday into Monday, as global guidance
has come into better agreement. A developing full latitude trof with
phasing of northern and southern stream energy wl help in the
development of sfc low pres over the Ohio Valley on Sunday. This low
pres is progged to deepen as it tracks toward the ne conus late
Sunday into Monday. Strong southerly flow and deep moisture
advection, combined with favorable ulvl jet structure wl continue to
place high likely pops into the fcst for late Sunday into Monday.
Upslope flow and caa wl cont pops acrs the mtns on Monday into
Tuesday, before sfc high pres finally builds back into our cwa by
Weds. The warmest day looks to be Sunday, as waa ahead of sfc low
pres advects progged 925mb temps btwn 10-14C, supporting highs well
into the 60s to lower 70s. Much cooler air develops on the backside
of low pres for early next week with highs only in the upper 40s to
upper 50s expected, with lows in the mid 30s to mid 40s. Winds and
clouds wl limit temps from falling too much.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Through 00Z Friday...A wide range of flight conditions are
present across Vermont and northern New York due to low ceilings as
a trough moves east with attendant showers present, mainly over
Vermont. The lowest ceilings are at KMPV and KRUT. Intervals of
IFR ceilings will be possible, except at KMSS and KPBG through
about 03z-07z. Thereafter, any lingering showers will diminish.
Clouds will gradually scatter and trend VFR about 09z-12z. There
is some potential for fog in any clearing, with the greatest
confidence in the Connecticut River Valley due to some winds
just off the surface across northern New York. For now, only
noted 4SM and FEW002 at KMPV 09z-12z. Northwest winds will
become increasing variable over the next few hours, before
transitioning to southwest to west through 12z mainly 5 knots
or less. After 12z, winds will increase, and by 16z, winds will
be west to west-northwest at 6 to 11 knots sustained with gusts
up to 20 knots. Clouds beyond 12z tomorrow will be mostly at or
above 5000 ft agl.
Outlook...
Thursday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Friday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Friday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Saturday: VFR. Chance SHRA.
Saturday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Slight
chance SHRA.
Sunday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance SHRA.
Sunday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Likely SHRA.
Monday: VFR. Chance SHRA.
&&
.CLIMATE...
Daily Precip Records
Date KBTV KMPV K1V4 KMSS KPBG KSLK
05-06 0.85|1894 1.55|1989 0.39|2010 0.84|1991 0.42|1991 0.75|2017
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.
&&
$$
WHAT HAS CHANGED...Duell
DISCUSSION...Taber/Duell
AVIATION...Haynes
CLIMATE...
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