000
FXUS61 KBTV 262350
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Burlington VT
750 PM EDT Sun May 26 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will build into the region tonight with clearing
skies and seasonably cool temperatures. A weak front will sink
through the area tomorrow with little fanfare other clouds and
perhaps a brief sprinkle. After a chilly night Monday night,
high pressure returns for Tuesday with mainly dry weather along
with moderating temperatures.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
As of 746 PM EDT Sunday...Cloud cover continues to slowly erode
from the northwest and it looks like mostly clear skies will
prevail across the North Country by midnight. Any lingering
gusty winds will quickly diminish over the next hour as the
boundary layer decouples. No changes to the forecast at this
time except to clear skies a little quicker tonight.

Previous Discussion...Quiet weather remains on tap for
tonight as surface high pressure builds southeast into the area
with clearing skies and light winds. Fog probabilities are low
for any fog, though if it did occur northern NY counties appear
to have the best chance with lighter winds atop the nocturnal
boundary layer after 06Z. Low temperatures near seasonal late
May norms in the 40s.

Sensible weather remains generally unremarkable for Monday into
Monday night. A weakening cold front will sag through the area
during the afternoon hours with little fanfare other than some
passing mid level cloud cover and perhaps a stray light shower or
sprinkle, mainly over the higher terrain. The 925 mb thermal
gradient is rather tight north to south and given higher cloud
coverage across the north by afternoon along the front temperatures
will show higher than normal variability, ranging from the upper 50s
to lower 60s along the international border to the lower 70s far
south.

Then mainly clear and chilly by Monday night under building high
pressure and broad subsidence. Some patchy br/fg more of a
possibility and have included this in climatologically favored areas
after midnight. Low temperatures to run noticeably cool from the mid
30s to lower 40s with locally cooler readings in favored northern
mountain hollows of the Dacks/NE Kingdom where some patchy frost
will be possible.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 300 PM EDT Sunday...Guidance is still in good agreement that
the northern tier of the forecast area will remain dry on Tuesday.
NW flow aloft will keep most of the energy away from the area as
this decaying convection from the midwest slides well south of the
area across PA & southern New England. The best chances for
precipitation will be across our southern portions of northern New
York and Vermont (Rutland and Windsor counties). Overall
precipitation amounts with this system look minimal with less than
0.1" across central zones and around 0.25" for our far southern
areas. Temperatures on Tuesday will largely be a function of cloud
cover...northern areas should climb into the upper 60s under
filtered sunny skies, with southern areas holding in the low 60s.
Lows Tuesday night will be near normal in the upper 40s to around
50. With light winds at the surface, patchy fog may develop
especially in areas that see measurable precipitation.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 300 PM EDT Sunday...NW flow aloft will keep first part of
Wednesday dry but once again decaying convection moving east will
bring renewed chances for precipitation late Wednesday
afternoon/evening. Still some uncertainty in where and how much
precipitation...12z run of GFS current outlier with convection
staying to our south due to continued persistent NW flow aloft, so
have taken blend of ECMWF/GFS/NBM which still shows unsettled
weather for this time period...we will continue to monitor potential
for heavy rain with this decaying convection as PWATs associated
with is are upwards of 1.75". After, active weather continues as
flow turns more southwest aloft with chances for precipitation and
thunderstorms Thursday. Good support for widespread rain/isolated
convection Thursday evening with good surge of moisture,
strengthening 850mb jet and upper level trough moving through.
Overall, temperatures through the extended will be near to above
normal, especially on Thursday as 925mb temperatures climb to
16-18C.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Through 00Z Tuesday...VFR conditions are expected to prevail
through the forecast period. A few sites are still showing some
gusty north to northwest winds at 14 to 18 knots but those
should diminish within the next hour. Decreasing cloud cover
will continue through the period with just a few passing high
clouds through the overnight period. A weak trough will push
across the North Country Monday afternoon which will bring in
some cloud cover but it looks like ceilings should stay between
5000 and 6000 ft as the moisture is elevated and not at the
lowest levels. Winds will continue to be from the northwest on
Monday with winds 10 knots or less.

Outlook...

Monday Night: VFR. Patchy BR.
Tuesday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA, Patchy BR.
Tuesday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA.
Wednesday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance SHRA.
Wednesday Night: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. Likely SHRA.
Thursday: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. Chance SHRA.
Thursday Night: Mainly MVFR, with local VFR possible. Chance
SHRA.
Friday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance SHRA.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMG
NEAR TERM...Clay/JMG
SHORT TERM...LaRocca
LONG TERM...LaRocca
AVIATION...Clay