044
FXUS61 KBTV 191902
AFDBTV
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
302 PM EDT Fri Jun 19 2026
.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
As of 242 PM EDT Friday...
No significant changes made with this forecast update.
&&
.KEY MESSAGES...
As of 242 PM EDT Friday...
1. Daily chances for showers and afternoon thunderstorms with
potential for localized moderate rainfall.
2. Limited shower and thunderstorm chances from Tuesday into
Wednesday become more likely on Thursday and Friday. Systems look
weak with modest moisture such that significant rain, wind, or
severe weather is unlikely.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
As of 242 PM EDT Friday...
KEY MESSAGE 1: Flow has become increasingly blocked downstream
while low pressure centered over eastern Canada has become
increasingly barotropic. This will result in a lingering patter
of cyclonic flow aloft with intermittent shortwaves moving
through the region bring showers and chances for thunderstorms.
Showers are evident along a convergent line slowly dropping
south out of Canada this afternoon and will continue to move
through the region this evening and overnight. There is
potential for moderate rainfall in some shower/thunderstorm
elements which could lead to localized rainfall near 1 inch.
however, most locations will see only a few hundredths to less
than 0.25". Northern Vermont seems to be in a favorable spot for
some instability lingering this evening coincident with timing
of the convergent line to move through. This will promote
rainfall totals in the 0.25-0.5" range. As such, river rises are
possible again on the Missisquoi River while falling waters on
the Barton River may stall somewhat. No further flooding is
anticipated, but rainfall may be sufficient to keep drainages
near bankful tonight. Breezes will continue this afternoon into
Saturday with the pressure gradient remaining tighter than usual
across the region; gusts 20-30 mph remain possible.
Northwest flow deepens Saturday with continued shower chances
especially along terrain of northern Vermont. River flows in
northern Vermont will likely remain elevated, but QPF amounts
are generally expected to be lighter and less than 0.25".
After somewhat of a break Sunday with fewer showers, the next
system will approach from a southwest trajectory promoting more
stratiform rainfall. Models are a little split on how far north
rainfall will progress with some keeping the system`s track
farther south with less isentropic lift across Vermont. However,
enough members have rainfall pushing across central/southern
Vermont to support likely chances at this time. Held off on
thunderstorms for now since forcing will be directed south and
along the relative warm front.
KEY MESSAGE 2: A couple of broad upper level troughs will traverse the
region with only slight recovery of the low level air mass in
between. As such, temperatures look fairly steady and near typical
values for early summer with highs generally in the mid 70s to low
80s with lows in the 50s to low 60s. Subtle shortwaves in the
cyclonic flow could line up with daytime heating to enhance risk of
thunderstorms, but given unimpressive dynamics and instability,
strong or severe thunderstorms are unlikely through Wednesday.
The ensemble mean trough position looks more favorable for synoptic
scale lift later in the week such that spatial coverage of showers
and thunderstorms will likely be higher on these days than earlier
in the week. One indicator of strong thunderstorm potential, the
joint probability of SB CAPE > 500 J/kg and bulk wind shear greater
than 30 knots, shows some signal in the latest ensemble guidance,
particularly if the incoming trough is a little more amplified than
the ensemble mean. Overall, better dynamics for thunderstorms may
set up on either or both of these days such that they will need to
be monitored for a stronger storm or two. Still, widespread
significant weather is not expected with this weather pattern.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Through 18Z Saturday...VFR conditions, or MVFR at EFK, will continue
through the next 2 to 4 hours, then increasing coverage of showers
sinking southward from near the International Border will lead to
better chances of MVFR conditions due a combination of ceilings and
visibilities. Intensity of showers will be modest so IFR conditions
are unlikely. While visibilities will tend to bounce, think
frequency of showers will be high enough to show prevailing MVFR
conditions at most sites with the exception of RUT during this
interval through the evening. Beyond 03Z-06Z, greatest chances of
showers become lower with some stratus likely to result in localized
IFR at SLK, especially as winds keep a slight southerly/upslope
component. These winds will remain gusty through much of the TAF
period, with greatest potential for winds exceeding 15 knots along
with gusts in the 20-25 knot range through 00Z, and again 10Z onward
as wind direction shifts more northwesterly. The wind shift will be
more subtle at MSS and SLK than at sites in the Champlain Valley and
Vermont. Before this wind shift occurs, west-northwest low level
winds off the deck appear strong enough for LLWS at SLK associated
with generally strong mountain turbulence expected from about 02Z to
08Z.
Outlook...
Saturday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA.
Sunday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Likely SHRA, Chance
TSRA.
Sunday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Monday: VFR. Likely SHRA, Slight chance TSRA.
Monday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA.
Tuesday: VFR. Chance SHRA.
Tuesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday: VFR. Chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA.
&&
.CLIMATE...
As of 308 PM EDT Thursday...
Daily record precipitation of 1.22 inches was achieved for the
Saranac Lake Area yesterday, breaking the 1924 record of 0.87
inches.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.
&&
$$
WHAT HAS CHANGED...Boyd
DISCUSSION...Kutikoff/Boyd
AVIATION...Kutikoff
CLIMATE...NWS BTV
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