046
FXUS61 KBTV 271733
AFDBTV
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
1233 PM EST Fri Feb 27 2026
.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
As of 156 AM EST Friday...
No significant changes with this forecast. We`ll be in an active
pattern through the weekend but significant impacts are not
anticipated at this time.
&&
.KEY MESSAGES...
As of 156 AM EST Friday...
1. Light snow possible with near normal temperatures today.
2. Windy with rain and snow showers late Friday night into
Saturday with a strong cold frontal passage.
3. Turning sharply colder early next week with more widespread
snow showers Saturday night and Sunday.
4. During the total lunar eclipse Tuesday morning, sky cover is
somewhat uncertain at this time, with some high altitude clouds
possible.
5. Two potential winter storms are being monitored for the
first week of March, although storm track and related precipitation
types are uncertain. Light snow is currently favored late Tuesday
into Wednesday, and greater chances for a wintry mix and rain exists
in the Thursday to Friday timeframe.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
As of 156 AM EST Friday...
KEY MESSAGE 1: A weak warm front will lift across our region this
morning. Snow showers associated with this front can already be seen
across eastern Ontario; they will gradually spread eastward and
along both sides of the international border this morning into the
early afternoon. However, with meager moisture and the best forcing
to remain on the other side of the border, expect overall coverage
to wane as precipitation moves eastward. Showers will be isolated in
nature and focus mainly in northern areas, with precipitation type
mostly snow, though can`t rule out some sprinkles mixed in here and
there. Regardless, any accumulation will be minimal. Otherwise,
expect variable cloudiness today with temperatures warming into the
low to mid 30s on south to southwest winds.
KEY MESSAGE 2: Low pressure will lift well north of our region tonight
and then move east on Saturday, dragging a cold front along in its
wake. Warm air advection will continue overnight as a potent 60+ kt
850 mb jet proceeds the incoming cold front. Hence expect
temperatures will fall early this evening, then hold steady or even
rise overnight, especially along the northern slopes of the
Adirondacks and into the Champlain Valley due to downsloping and
funneling of the south/southwest winds. Temperatures will likely be
in the mid to upper 30s from the Champlain Valley westward by
daybreak Saturday. Showers will develop along/ahead of the front as
it moves through from west to east during the daylight hours
Saturday, so many areas will actually start out as rain or a
rain/snow mix. Temperatures will continue to warm in eastern and
southern areas ahead of the front during the day, and expect these
locations will be able to warm well into the 40s, with some Lower
Connecticut Valley towns possibly approaching 50F. Further north,
daytime highs will be early in the day with temperatures falling
through the afternoon. Showers will be most extensive across the
northern high terrain, with just isolated or widely scattered
activity in central and southern portions of our forecast area. The
better forcing/instability will lag behind the main precipitation,
so expect only light rain and/or snow amounts.
The aforementioned strong jet will also serve to bring gusty winds
to our area late tonight through Saturday morning. There`s some
uncertainty how much of this jet will be able to mix to the surface,
particularly before sunrise and increasing daytime mixing. Still,
with the favored south/southwest direction, gusts of 25 to 35 mph
will be possible, with the highest gusts along the northern slopes
of the Adirondacks/Greens and the northern Champlain Valley.
Wouldn`t be surprised to see a few locally higher reports of gusts
approaching 40 mph. Winds peak Saturday morning, then gradually
subside as the front moves through, though they will remain breezy
from the west. Don`t anticipate any wind headlines at this point,
but subsequent shifts will need to monitor trends closely going
forward, especially now that we`re within the hi-res models`
timeframe.
KEY MESSAGE 3: The cold front makes its exit to our southeast Saturday
evening, followed by a secondary front/surface trough Saturday
night. A wave of low pressure will traverse along this secondary
boundary during the overnight hours and into Sunday, bringing a
swath of light snow or snow showers as it does so. The best moisture
and forcing will be across central/southern New England, so
anticipate much of the precipitation will be over central/southern
VT, with amounts decreasing as one heads north toward Canada.
Regardless, this will be a quick hitting system and snow amounts
will only be around an inch at most, with a vast majority of the
region only seeing a dusting or perhaps up to half an inch. Sunday
will be much colder after Saturday`s cold frontal passage; highs
will only be in the teens and 20s. This cold will persist right
through Monday. The day will start out with temperatures below zero
for a vast majority of Vermont and northern New York, and anticipate
highs will struggle to exceed 20F on Monday, in spite of ample
sunshine.
KEY MESSAGE 4: Between 6 and 6:30 AM Tuesday, a total lunar eclipse, or
"Blood Moon" will likely be visible across the area. The easy part
of the forecast is that it will be seasonably cold and dry. But will
skies be clear? As high pressure moves to the southeast overnight,
some high clouds well out ahead of a frontal system to our northwest
may spill into the region. Therefore, the deterministic sky cover
forecast currently doesn`t look representative of what actual sky
cover will probably look like; as an example, across the region the
Northeast Kingdom substantially lowest sky cover than areas to the
west/south, but it does not seem obviously clearer there than in
central/southern portions of Vermont. By Sunday night into Monday as
this system develops over western provinces of Canada, it should
become more clear how the cloudiness will play out for our area.
KEY MESSAGE 5: Large model variations continue with regards to a pair
of southern stream low pressure systems expected to move across the
country next week. The first one looks like a weak low pressure
system with modest QPF, but it does have a decent chance of
producing a few inches of snow Tuesday night based on the latest
model consensus, in which probabilities of snowfall exceeding 2
inches is about 20-40%, with highest chances over central and
southern portions of Vermont and eastern Adirondacks. Recent model
cycles have generally pretty stable, but the degree of cold air will
depend on amount of phasing with northern stream energy.
Temperatures could be only marginally cold for snow.
By comparison, the second system looks potentially stronger and more
impactful. However it is more uncertain, including with timing of
precipitation, as the amplitude of ridging out ahead of it will
control both how quickly precipitation returns and how cold the air
is across the region. Ensemble membership strongly favors mainly
rain with this late week storm, although there is certainly a chance
that polar high pressure builds southward in time to provide an
overrunning wintry mix scenario. Precipitation could be rather heavy
as the system will likely tap into rich moisture out of the Gulf.
That being said, the storm track is so uncertain that it is too
early to provide any potential impacts. Stay tuned.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Through 18Z Saturday...VFR conditions are favored for the next
several hours. A weak boundary and light snow showers stretches
from Lake Ontario east towards the Green Mountains. The
Ogdensburg airport has occasionally noted precipitation, but
never anything below 6SM. Noted PROB30s for KSLK, KBTV, and KEFK
for 6SM in light snow, in case any activity can overcome the dry
air near the surface. A patchy cloud deck at 4000-7000 ft agl is
being noted across the region, and after 00z, skies will trend
clear. The main concern will be steadily climbing south to
southwest winds to 2000 ft agl that peaks around 45-55 knots
from about 06z-16z. Surface south winds will also increase to
8-15 knots with gusts 17-25 knots, but not fast enough that left
in a mention of LLWS for every terminal. Winds peak about
10z-16z, and KBTV is likely to see gusts around 30 knots in that
interval. A thin strip of rain or snow showers will shift east,
but it may be virga across several locations, and so
represented this precipitation with PROB30s.
Outlook...
Saturday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHSN.
Sunday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHSN.
Sunday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Monday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Monday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday: VFR. Slight chance SN.
Tuesday Night: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Chance SN.
Wednesday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. NO SIG WX.
&&
.EQUIPMENT...
The KMPV ASOS has suffered a communications failure. The issue
has been diagnosed, but there is currently no estimated time of
return to service. This communications line is not serviced by
the NWS. Terminal Aerodrome Forecasts will continue, but
amendments to those forecasts will be suspended.
NOAA Weather Radio station WXM-44, transmitting from Mt.
Ascutney, Vermont, on frequency 162.475 MHz is non- operational
at this time. NWS technicians have diagnosed the problem, but
repairs will likely not be able to occur for quite some time due
to circumstances beyond our control. Therefore, the time of
return to service is currently unknown. The following NOAA
Weather Radio transmitters may be able to provide service during
this outage: WWG 50 from Burke Mtn, VT at 162.425 MHz and WNG
546 from Hanover, NH at 162.525 MHz.
The Colchester Reef meteorological station is out of service.
This site is not serviced by the NWS and there isn`t an
estimated return to service at present. Please contact us if you
observe winds significantly deviating from the recreational
forecast.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.
&&
$$
WHAT HAS CHANGED...Hastings
DISCUSSION...Hastings/Kutikoff
AVIATION...Haynes
EQUIPMENT...NWS BTV
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