782
FXUS61 KBTV 211104
AFDBTV
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
704 AM EDT Tue Apr 21 2026
.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
As of 235 AM EDT Tuesday...
No significant changes but the weekend is trending drier.
&&
.KEY MESSAGES...
As of 235 AM EDT Tuesday...
1. Mostly dry and cool this week with a couple chances for
light precipitation.
2. Trending drier for the weekend and early next week with near
normal temperatures.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
As of 235 AM EDT Tuesday...
KEY MESSAGE 1: An omega type block will set up over the middle part of
the country for a large part of the week, keeping a relatively
consistent stretch of weather. The main chance of precipitation
occurs tonight as a weak shortwave dives southeast out of Canada.
Scattered showers are expected, with the highest probabilities of
seeing precipitation over southern and western areas. Snow levels
look to be between 1,000 and 2,000 ft during the precipitation so
very light accumulations are possible in the higher elevations.
With liquid precipitation only expected to be in the range of a
couple hundreths of an inch at most and with marginal temperatures,
accumulations are expected to be under an inch. An even weaker round
of precipitation is possible Wednesday night with a few
sprinkles/flurries possible. The main feature to watch during this
stretch are the fire weather elements. Today and Thursday will be
the days with the lowest relative humidity. Relative humidity values
look to be in the 20s and 30s today, with slightly higher values on
Thursday. However, winds will be relatively light today, with gusts
generally staying around and under 15 mph. Thursday will be windier,
with northwesterly gusts between 20 and 30 mph possible.
KEY MESSAGE 2: Forecast trends are towards drier conditions for the
upcoming weekend with medium/long range guidance indicating high
pressure will remain over the region, shunting precipitation chances
southward across southern New England and the Mid-Atlantic states.
Thereafter an omega-block pattern looks to set up early next week
with an upper level ridge shifting over the forecast area for Monday
and Tuesday. Near normal temperatures are expected with highs in the
upper 50s to mid 60s, and lows mid 30s to mid 40s.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Through 12Z Wednesday...VFR conditions will generally prevail through
the period. Current SKC will give way to increasing mid/high clouds
advancing from west to east this morning, but will remain FEW-
SCT through the day while lowering from 15,000 mid-morning to
8,000 by midnight. Further lowering of ceilings is expected
after midnight, though mostly remaining VFR with the exception
of MVFR at KSLK, KMSS, and KRUT. Calm winds this morning will
increase to 4-8kts after 14Z from the SSW except locally SE at
KPBG.
Outlook...
Wednesday: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. Slight chance
SHRA.
Wednesday Night: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. NO SIG WX.
Thursday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. NO SIG WX.
Thursday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Friday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Friday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Saturday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.
&&
$$
WHAT HAS CHANGED...Myskowski
DISCUSSION...Lahiff/Myskowski
AVIATION...Lahiff
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