195
FXUS61 KBTV 190623
AFDBTV
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
123 AM EST Fri Dec 19 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
A powerful storm system will produce very gusty winds, warm
temperatures and a line of heavy rainfall late tonight into Friday
across our region. A wind advisory has been issued for the entire
area with gusts 45 to 55 mph expected, especially on Friday morning.
Isolated to scattered power outages are possible. Temperatures will
warm into the 50s on Friday, before dropping back into the 20s and
30s by Friday night. Cooler temperatures with chances of snow
showers prevails for most of the upcoming weekend.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 143 PM EST Thursday...Wind advisory has been expanded to
include our entire forecast area and extended in time until 18z
Friday for wind gusts 45 to 55 mph and the potential for isolated to
scattered power outages.
Trends have been slightly stronger with wind profiles on Friday
morning with a delayed fropa by 2 to 4 hours, resulting in
warmer temps.
Temps have overachieved in a few areas today with
readings warming into the lower 50s parts of the SLV, while MSS
has northeast winds and a temp of 37F as of 1:45 PM. Many areas
have climbed into the 40s with brisk south winds of 15 to 30
mph with localized gusts 35 to 45 mph already. Lake Placid and
the Sandbar have gusted to 45 mph and 39 mph here at BTV.
Sfc analysis places powerful and deepening 985mb low pres near Ely
MN, while a 1030mb high pres is acrs the north Atlantic. Upper air
analysis shows sharpening full latitude mid/upper lvl trof acrs the
central Plains, while deep moisture advection continues on a
strengthening south to southwest flow in the 925mb to 500mb layer.
As sfc low pres deepens the 925mb to 850mb wind fields strengthens
overnight into Friday acrs our region. The NAM and RAP both show
progged 850mb winds of 75 to 90 knots, while 925mb winds are in the
55 to 70 knot range, highest over the northern Dacks into the
northern CPV. The difficult challenge continues to be how much
mixing occurs, as the strongest winds are co-located with the axis
of heaviest rainfall. However, given the progged fine line of
convective showers by NAM3KM/HRRR, the embedded heavier down
pours would have the potential to tap very strong winds in the
925mb to 850mb layer and transfer some higher speeds to the sfc.
Given this potential and latest RAP/HRRR soundings showing 500
foot agl winds of 45 to 55 knots, with 59 knots at Malone at
12z Friday, we have expanded the wind advisory. HREF shows 60
to 80% prob of 60 mph or greater winds along the Route 11
corridor and acrs parts of central/northern VT with <30% prob of
winds greater than 65 mph, while indicating 90 to 100% of winds
>45 mph acrs most of our cwa. Did consider High Wind Warning
for northern Dacks, but southeast direction and still some
uncertainty on boundary layer mixing, may limit areal coverage
of 60 mph wind gusts. Still something to watch closely. Also,
have some concerns over southern Greens with southeast downslope
gusts near Rutland, but soundings are showing slightly weaker
low level wind fields and limited mixing due to the moist
adiabatic sounding profile and weak inversion above ridgetop.
Generally thinking wind gusts in the 45 to 55 mph range, which
wl peak between 4 AM and Noon on Friday.
Large swings in temps anticipated the next 12 to 36 hrs, with a wide
range anticipated in lows tonight, from the mid/upper 20s in the
colder/protected valleys east of the Greens to temps warming thru
the 40s western Dacks/CPV. As progged 925mb temps surge btwn 6-9C
ahead of approaching boundary on Friday, expect an axis of 48 to
55F, while dwpts climb into the mid 40s to lower 50s. This
combination of warm temps and dwpts, with gusty winds wl result in
rapid snow melt acrs all elevations for a 6 to 10 hr window on
Friday. As sfc cold frnt sweeps acrs our region btwn 18z-00z, temps
wl quickly drop back into the mid 20s to mid 30s acrs our region.
The threat for a flash freeze is minimal acrs many of the valley
locations due the lagging arctic boundary by 3 to 6 hours, which
should allow for many surface to dry out before dropping below
freezing.
Little change in our qpf thinking with 0.50 to 1.0" acrs our cwa,
strong wind fields wl result in some shadowing over the northern
Dacks. This qpf, combined with snow melt wl result in modest in bank
river rises, with a few approaching action stage.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 143 PM EST Thursday...Deepening sub 970mb low pres wl be acrs
eastern Canada, while brisk west to northwest winds prevail with
moderately strong caa. Progged 850mb winds in the 45 to 60 knot
range with lower subsidence inversion below ridgetop supports
localized gusts up to 50 mph on Friday night into Saturday,
especially downslope areas of the eastern Dacks and Green Mtns. The
lowering inversion height below summit level near sunrise on Sat
morning wl help to enhance top of the mixed layer winds toward the
sfc in favorable downslope areas. An additional wind advisory wl be
likely from near Ludlow to Stowe to Westfield and near acrs the
eastern Dacks. High res guidance conts to indicate a secondary surge
of arctic air sweeping acrs our cwa btwn 03z-09z Saturday, this
convergence and ribbon of better moisture/instability would support
additional snow showers with maybe an embedded snow squalls. Timing
and limited instability and moisture should minimize threat, but
something to watch with boundary. Have continued with likely pops
mtns to schc/low chc in valleys with a dusting to several inches of
snow anticipated by morning. Good luck measuring it, given the
strong winds. Lows range from single digits summits to lower 20s CPV
valley, which wl support good snow making temps to help area recover
from recent warmup and rain. By late Saturday into Sat night, winds
quickly shift to the south/southwest with a strengthening 850mb jet
of 45 to 50 knots, as sfc low pres passes to our north. Given
southwest flow and progged track of sfc low pres, any qpf/snowfall
wl be light and mainly confined to the trrn. Highs Sat warm into the
upper 20s to mid 30s with early evening lows in the upper teens to
mid 20s, but warming after midnight as winds and clouds increase.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 122 AM EST Friday...Sunday night into Monday, upslope snow
showers will likely continue with speed 850mb northwesterly flow and
cold advection. Temperatures will quickly sink into the teens and
single digits as cold air returns behind Sunday`s cold front. A
strong, 1030+mb surface high will enter, and pressure gradients will
tighten as a result. Gusts of 20 to 35 mph will be likely, as a
result. Orographic snow showers will taper heading into Monday,
but stiff northwesterly flow will keep temperatures from
getting out of the teens to mid 20s.
Monday night will be continue the cold weather, but with gradually
abating winds. The next system will approach Tuesday afternoon.
Although temperatures during the day will climb near to just above
freezing, we`ll likely remain all snow for precipitation. Our
weather pattern will feature us on the fringe of a very warm air
mass to our south and cool air off to our north. Small fluctuations
in the pattern could spell a wide range of scenarios. On a day-by-
day scale, these kind of weather patterns tend to have lower
predictability since systems move fast between stronger winds
between these sharp thermal gradients and the lack of amplification
means these smaller systems can be more difficult for global models
to resolve. It`ll certainly be active, with likely breezy conditions
and precipitation opportunities every other day or so.
&&
.AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Through 06Z Saturday...Light rain is currently shifting northeast
towards the region. Maritime air is moving up the lower valleys of
eastern Vermont and bringing 1200 ft agl ceilings at KMPV, while
other terminals are VFR. Precipitation will likely have little
impact to visibility and ceiling until a fine line arrives that will
move west to east across our region between about 14z and 19z.
Ahead of that fine line, surface south to southeast winds will
increase towards at least 15 to 23 knots sustained with
prevailing gusts increasing to 28 to 38 knots. A peak gust above
40 knots is possible at all terminals, with lowest confidence
at KMSS. LLWS will also increase with winds at 2000 ft agl
increasing as high as 65 to 75 knots ahead of the fine line.
Precipitation may also cause reductions in surface winds at
times. Significant low-level turbulence and LLWS is expected,
especially with winds likely peaking higher at summit levels.
PROB30s have been used to highlight heavy rain associated with
the fine line as it crosses east. Behind it, a sharp wind shift
to the west or southwest will take place, and wind speeds will
relax some. Some lingering rain is likely behind, along with
more consistent MVFR ceilings, locally down to IFR possible.
Beyond 22z Friday, winds will increase again towards 10 to 20
knots with gusts 18 to 28 knots. Snow showers will develop, but
will highlight them later.
Outlook...
Saturday: VFR. Windy with gusts to 30 kt. NO SIG WX.
Saturday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance
SHSN.
Sunday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHSN.
Sunday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. NO SIG WX.
Monday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. NO SIG WX.
Monday Night: VFR. Slight chance SN.
Tuesday: VFR. Likely SN.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
Sharp rises on streams and rivers are anticipated on Friday
into Friday night associated with warm temperatures, snow melt,
and moderate rainfall. Rainfall of 0.50 to 1.25 is expected with
snow melt adding another 0.75 to 1.25 inches into the river
basins. Given dewpoints will be above freezing on Friday,
efficient snow melt will be likely. The rivers with greatest
potential to reach action stage, given expected rainfall and
snow melt are the Ausable, Mad, and Otter Creek at Center
Rutland on Friday afternoon and evening. Crests on the Mad and
Ausable Rivers will be Friday afternoon, and Otter Creek and the
Winooski cresting closer to Friday evening/early Saturday
morning. Lastly, while any river ice may move, the threat of ice
jams remains low.
&&
.MARINE...
A Lake Wind Advisory is in effect for Lake Champlain through
Friday. Southerly winds ahead an approaching frontal system
will lead to channeling effects on Lake Champlain enhancing wind
and wave conditions. Winds on the broad lake will increase to
20 to 30 knots with gusts as high as 45 to 55 knots, becoming
strongest late tonight into Friday. Waves will be generally 4
to 6 ft on the broad lake and 2 to 4 on the northern and
southern ice free portions of the lake.
&&
.CLIMATE...
Incoming warmer air and precipitation is presently forecast to
approach daily record values. The most likely date for records
will be Friday December 19th for both daily high temperatures
and precipitation. Below are some of the daily records in
jeopardy of being broken (current forecast at or within 3
degrees of the record).
Record High Temperatures:
December 18:
KBTV: 49/1895
KMPV: 49/1949
KPBG: 49/1967
K1V4: 47/2023
Record Daily Precipitation:
December 18:
KBTV: 0.62/1912
KMPV: 0.35/1998
K1V4: 0.24/1998
KMSS: 0.43/1970
KPBG: 0.17/1970
KSLK: 0.70/1912
&&
.EQUIPMENT...
NOAA Weather Radio station WXM-44, transmitting from Mt.
Ascutney, Vermont, on frequency 162.475 MHz is non-operational
at this time. NWS technicians have diagnosed the problem, but
repairs will likely not be able to occur for quite some time due
to circumstances beyond our control. Therefore, the time of
return to service is currently unknown. The following NOAA
Weather Radio transmitters may be able to provide service during
this outage: WWG 50 from Burke Mtn, VT at 162.425 MHz and WNG
546 from Hanover, NH at 162.525 MHz.
Equipment malfunctions at the Colchester Reef meteorological
station will likely leave it inoperable for an extended period
of time. This site is not serviced by the NWS. Technicians do
not currently have an estimated return to service for this
station. Use extra caution when navigating the broad waters of
Lake Champlain, and please contact us if you observe winds
significantly deviating from the forecast.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...Wind Advisory until 1 PM EST this afternoon for VTZ001>005-
007>011-020-021.
High Wind Warning until 1 PM EST this afternoon for VTZ006-
016>019.
NY...Wind Advisory until 1 PM EST this afternoon for NYZ026-028-029-
031-034-035-087.
High Wind Warning until 1 PM EST this afternoon for NYZ027-030.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Taber
NEAR TERM...Taber
SHORT TERM...Taber
LONG TERM...Haynes
AVIATION...Haynes
HYDROLOGY...Taber
MARINE...Team BTV
CLIMATE...Team BTV
EQUIPMENT...Team BTV
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