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  Tuesday May 23, 2017

 

NWS Area Forecast Discussion


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FXUS61 KBTV 221747
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
147 PM EDT Mon May 22 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak cold front crossing New York and Vermont through this evening
will bring isolated showers, along with lingering low clouds and
areas of fog overnight. Will see clearing Tuesday with a weak
area of high pressure in place across the northeastern U.S. and
temperatures moderating back into the upper 60s to lower 70s. A
few afternoon showers are possible Wednesday, but high
temperatures will continue to moderate into the low to mid 70s.
A large mid-level trough across the Tennessee and Ohio Valleys
and associated developing surface low pressure will bring
increasing chances for widespread rainfall across the North
Country on Thursday and Friday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 138 PM EDT Monday...Secondary surface trough axis
shifting ewd across central NY/PA is associated with two bands
of shower activity. The first is moving ewd across wrn/central
VT at 1730Z. The second band of showers is across the Mohawk
valley of NY at 1730Z, and is expected to expand nwd across the
northern Adirondacks and shift across VT late this afternoon.
Not expecting anything too significant in terms of QPF...with
an additional 0.05 - 0.10" rainfall on top of the 0.3-0.5" that
generally fell during the overnight/morning hours.

Will see some gradual mid-level drying this evening (above
750mb) with WSWLY flow aloft, but pronounced low-level inversion
should continue to hold low stratus in areawide with overcast
skies and cool temperatures. Afternoon highs only expected to
range from the lower 50s east of the Green Mtns, to near 60F at
BTV, and upr 50s to lower 60s across nrn NY. The KCXX vad wind
profile still indicates 25-30kt flow at 2-3kft AGL. Won`t fully
see these winds at low elevations due to stability, but
occasional gusts to 20-25 mph are possible thru this aftn.
Expect winds remaining 20-25kts over the broad portion of Lake
Champlain, and the Lake Wind Advisory continues there.

Tonight through Tuesday a weak surface ridge builds into the
region. Lowering inversion and light surface winds, along with
moist ground from recent rain will promote fog formation in the
usual areas. During this time flow aloft remains southwesterly,
and low pressure over the Great Lakes will ride through the 500
mb ridge, suppressing the ridge & shifting it east. The low
passes well enough north that the surface ridge will win out
with no rain during this time, but will still be quite a few
clouds around. Tuesday about 10 degree warmer than monday with
highs in the 60s/near 70.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 349 AM EDT Monday...Weak ridge both aloft and at the
surface build across our cwa on Weds...ahead of developing full
latitude trof over the MS River Valley. This ridging should keep
moisture and precip associated with weak low pres riding along
the eastern seaboard to our east on Tuesday Night into
Weds...with mainly a dry forecast anticipated. Progged 850mb
temps between 9-11c...support highs mainly in the mid/upper 60s
mountains to mid 70s warmer valleys on Weds. Mid/upper level
closed cyclonic circulation over the MS River Valley slowly
moves eastward toward the OH Valley on Weds Night....with
southerly winds and increasing clouds. Given the slow movement
of the closed system from the flow aloft...will keep Weds Night
dry with temps mainly in the 50s.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 349 AM EDT Monday...A period of unsettled weather likely
Thursday into Friday...with occasional rain showers and breezy
southerly winds. Closed mid/upper level circulation will slowly
track toward the Mid Atlantic States as 998mb low pres is
located near Binghamton, NY by 00z Friday. The combination of
strong southerly flow between 850 and 500mb will help advect
deeper layer moisture into our cwa...with PWS >1.0 developing.
The initial warm air advection surge will produce a period of
showers on Thursday with qpf values generally between 0.10 and
0.25. Some downslope shadowing/enhancement on southeast 925mb to
850mb of 30 to 40 knots is likely. Meanwhile...strong 5h energy
rounds mid/upper level trof base on Thursday Night...with
system becoming vertically stacked over southern New England by
Friday. The combination of easterly 925mb to 700mb flow and
favorable energy aloft will produce another round of light to
moderate rainfall on THursday night into Friday. Depending upon
exact track of low pres...will determine placement of heaviest
qpf...but nose of 850mb jet would suggest central/eastern VT.
Thinking additional qpf will range between 0.25 western areas to
0.75 central/eastern VT...with around 0.50 in the CPV. Will
mention likely pops for this period.

Friday night into Saturday...system will slowly lift northeast with
mainly light terrain driven/upslope showers persisting into
Saturday. Difficult to time individual pieces of s/w energy in the
northwest flow aloft...but thinking lingering mid level moisture and
favorable upslope flow...some rain shower activity is possible into
Saturday.

Sunday...Still some uncertainty on Sunday with timing of warm front
feature and associated potential for showers. At this time...Sunday
Morning looks dry...with a chance of showers increasing during the
afternoon hours...along with increasing humidity levels. Any precip
looks to be light and generally under 0.20".

For temps...mainly the mid 60s to mid 70s For Thursday... but only
mid/upper 50s to mid 60s with widespread clouds/rain showers for
Friday with coolest values across the eastern mountains. Weekend
temps mainly in the mid 60s to mid 70s for highs and lows mid 40s to
mid 50s. No major heat anticipated with general mid/upper level trof
across the NE Conus this upcoming weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Through 18Z Tuesday...Main aviation wx concern will be low
cloud trends and possible fog overnight, especially during the
pre-dawn period (06-11Z). Overall, abundant MVFR to IFR
ceilings (low stratus deck) expected through 12Z Tuesday. A weak
sfc trough/cold front crossing the region from west to east
will bring isold -SHRA 21-03Z. Thereafter, a weak sfc ridge
will build newd from wrn NY and wrn PA. This will allow for
diminishing winds and lowering ceilings (with strong inversion
layer in place) into the IFR category 03-12Z Tuesday with TRRN
OBSCD. The one exception should be KMSS. At KMSS, should see
just enough SW flow (5-8kts) to keep PBL mixed precluding low
cloud and fog development locally there. At the other TAF sites,
may see some patchy fog around, especially during the pre- dawn
hours with periods of LIFR conditions possible 08-12Z. Winds
generally south around 10kts through 02-03Z Tuesday. Thereafter,
winds will shift into the SW-W with sfc trough passage. Should
see improving CIG/VSBY conditions with ceilings lifting back to
VFR by 13-15Z and skies trending SCT-BKN. Winds will be
relatively light during the daylight hours on Tuesday, generally
W-SW at 5-8kts.

Outlook...

Tuesday: VFR. Patchy morning FG.
Tuesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday: VFR. Slight Chance SHRA.
Wednesday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA.
Thursday: VFR. Breezy. Likely SHRA.
Thursday Night: VFR/MVFR. Likely RA.
Friday: MVFR. Likely RA.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 145PM Monday...Southerly winds 15-25kts across Lake Champlain
will diminish and shift into the southwest early this evening.
The Lake Wind Advisory will likely be cancelled late this
afternoon or early this evening.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Banacos
NEAR TERM...Banacos/Hanson
SHORT TERM...Taber
LONG TERM...Taber
AVIATION...Banacos
MARINE...Team BTV



 
 
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