048
FXUS61 KBTV 251134
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
734 AM EDT Sat Oct 25 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A cooler and cloudy pattern will persist through the weekend, though
additional showers will be mostly light and confined to the
mountains. High elevation snow showers will occur, supporting light
accumulations on the mountain summits. Conditions look to trend
drier and a little sunnier heading into early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 229 AM EDT Saturday...A large upper level low is centered over
the region and it will slowly move to the east going through the
weekend. It will keep the pattern cool and cloudy, and there will be
isolated showers as well. The showers will be mostly confined to the
typical upslope areas. Freezing levels will continue to drop through
the rest of the night so snow levels should drop into some of the
mid-slopes. However, by the time they drop lower, most of the
lingering precipitation will be gone. During the day today, moisture
will be much shallower and it should be mostly out of the snow
growth zone, so the precipitation will likely be more mist/drizzle,
though with temperatures below freezing in the mountains, there
should be some continued riming. A shortwave will pass down through
the region tonight into Sunday morning and it may enhance the
showers slightly, though they will remain scattered. Snow levels
bottom out Sunday morning, and with the slightly enhanced
precipitation, that will be the best chance for any of the higher
elevation towns to see their first flakes. At this point, NBM
unconditional precipitation types are almost 100 percent snow across
the Adirondacks and the higher elevation towns of Vermont, so if
precipitation occurs, it is likely to be snow. However, if anything
does occur, it will be light and not amount to anything. Westerly to
northwesterly flow should keep the lake effect showers to the south.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 229 AM EDT Saturday...While the center of the upper level low
will build off slightly to the east Sunday night into Monday, it
will become cutoff and its effects will linger around. This period
has trended cooler and cloudier, and there could be a few lingering
isolated showers in the upslope areas. Summit levels will remain
below freezing so riming should continue to occur, and a few snow
showers are possible if the moisture can deepen back into the snow
growth zone. Any precipitation during this period will be very
light.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 229 AM EDT Saturday...Ridging continues to be favored through
Tuesday with high pressure projected over southern Canada. Model
consensus breaks down Wednesday onward with a chaotic and
complicated pattern resulting in multiple potential outcomes.
GFS/Canadian hang onto ridging with upper low cutting off much
farther west than ECMWF and ensemble solutions. ECMWF cuts off upper
low over Ohio River Valley with a gyre forming wrapping moisture
back across the Northeast. Probabilistic guidance is more similar to
the ECMWF favoring some form of unsettled weather depending on
various low pressure systems and their potential positions.
Therefore, kept closer to blended guidance which still supports
30-50% chances of showers mid to late week. Temperatures will
generally be around seasonal normals for highs while lows are
favored to be warmer given current weak consensus of increasing
moisture/clouds.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Through 12Z Sunday...Mainly VFR conditions will continue for
most terminals with a thick OVC060 deck moving across northern
New York and Vermont. The exceptions are RUT where conditions
are favorable for IFR or lower fog with IFR/MVFR CIGs through
14Z before VFR conditions return. SLK is experiencing upslope
flow with OVC012 likely to continue with some chances of drizzle
today; should drizzle begin, IFR will become an almost
certainty. c MVFR CIGs and showers and MSS where clearing may
occur by 10Z. Otherwise, westerly flow and a weak wave could
allow for very isolated showers or some areas of drizzle.
Another wave moving through after 06Z tonight will promote more
widespread MVFR CIGS and possibly a few showers. Low freezing
levels support icing in clouds at and above ridges.

Outlook...

Sunday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight chance SHRA.
Sunday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. NO SIG WX.
Monday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. NO SIG WX.
Monday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
Wednesday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
The TYX radar is down until further notice after a hardware
failure occurred. Replacement parts have been ordered and will
be installed. There is no ETA on its return to service.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Myskowski
NEAR TERM...Myskowski
SHORT TERM...Myskowski
LONG TERM...Boyd
AVIATION...Boyd
EQUIPMENT...BTV