000
FXUS61 KBTV 260308
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
1008 PM EST Sat Jan 25 2020

.SYNOPSIS...
A slow-moving low pressure system will bring periods of
moderate rain to the North Country this evening into the
overnight hours, along with localized pockets of freezing rain
and sleet across central and eastern Vermont and far northern
New York. Locally gusty winds upwards of 40 mph will also be
possible through this evening along the western slopes of the
Green Mountains. As winds turn westerly on Sunday into Sunday
night, there will be potential for snow showers across the
higher terrain, with several inches likely across the
Adirondacks and northern Green Mountains. Quiet weather returns
by mid-week with seasonable late January conditions anticipated.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 1008 PM EST Saturday...Have gone ahead and cancelled the
Winter Weather Advisory for northern New York. Threat for
freezing rain has come to an end and forecast soundings
overnight suggest thermal profile more conducive to rain and
snow...which has been the main weather across northern New York
the last few hours. There will likely be some additional
snowfall over northern New York overnight with amounts in the
dusting to two inch range.

Will continue the Winter Weather Advisory for areas east of the
Green Mountains in Vermont as areal coverage of precipitation is
greater across this area for the next few hours. Most places
have been reporting rain and snow tonight, but untreated
secondary roads have been reported to be icy. Any additional
freezing rain will be spotty and light east of the Greens in
Vermont with a dusting to two inches of additional snow possible
overnight. Thus looking at slippery travel conditions continuing
and thus the advisory continues.

Previous Discussion...
Mid-level closed low remains centered over lower Michigan this
afternoon, with well-organized warm conveyor belt extending from
south of Long Island north-northwestward into e-central and
northern NY. This conveyor belt is immediate east of an occulded
front, and system has a negative tilt per GOES-16 IR imagery.
Seeing very strong sely 850mb winds associated with a low-level
jet, which is expected to increase to 60-70kt across
s-central/central VT by 00Z this evening. Have seen surface
gusts as high as 41kt at Mendon and 34kt at KRUT at 1816Z. As
warm conveyors shifts ewd and precipitation develops eastward
across VT through early evening, should see wind gusts settle
back into the 25-30kt range along the western slopes of the
Green Mountains as PBL stabilizes.

Localized areas of mixed wintry precipitation remain a concern
this evening into tonight. The 2-m temperatures remain right at
32F across St. Lawrence and portions of northern Franklin NY
counties, with intermittent periods of FZRA noted in area
observations. May also see periods of sleet, and then a trend
toward intermittent snow/sleet after midnight as winds shift
westerly and vertical temperature profiles cool during the pre-
dawn hours. Continued with the idea of up to 0.1" ice
accumulation across the St. Lawrence Valley, and the Winter
Weather Advisory continues there through 4am Sunday. Sfc
temperatures are quite marginal this evening 32-34F, so travel
concerns should be limited to untreated surfaces.

Same situation across central/eastern VT, where the Winter
Weather Advisory continues through 4AM Sunday. Most locations in
VT are already above freezing, but seeing a few obs right at
32F on the immediate eastern slopes of the Greens around Bethel
and Brookfield and adjacent points. Again, any icy travel
concerns will be limited and confined to untreated surfaces, but
temperatures remain close enough to freezing to warrant
continuing the Winter Weather Advisory. We`ll continue to
monitor trends there. Meanwhile, in the Champlain Valley,
downslope sely winds and low-level WAA will keep temps in the
mid-upper 30s. A few ice pellets may mix in at times, but
looking at no accumulation and mostly a rain event.

Precipitation will be moderate at times this evening as best PW
axis translates ewd across the North Country. In terms of
StormTotalRainfall amts, mostly occurring through 09Z tonight,
looking at 0.4 to 0.6" in most locations, but locally up to 0.9"
across the Green Mtns and the higher peaks of the Adirondacks.

Mid-level dry slot moves across late tonight through Sunday
morning. Should see low overcast lingering with passage of the
occlusion, but precipitation will be limited to isolated light
snow showers. However, next shortwave trough in NWLY flow and
deeper saturation bringing better chances for snow showers
Sunday afternoon through Sunday night. This will be especially
true across the northern Adirondacks and northern Green Mtns
with increased WNWLY upslope flow conditions. We have increased
PoPs to 70-90% Sunday night across the higher terrain. It
appears that 2-4" of snowfall will be possible late Sunday
afternooon through Sunday night, and locally around 5" for Jay
Peak and the western slopes of the Adirondacks. Highs on Sunday
generally in the low-mid 30s, with lows Sunday night in the
upper 20s to lower 30s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 334 PM EST Saturday...Upslope snow showers are expected to
continue across the western slopes of the Green and Adirondacks on
Monday with a series of low amplitude shortwaves traversing the
northwesterly flow aloft. Moisture will gradually wane throughout
the day on Monday and especially on Tuesday as drier air begins to
work south into the North Country. The tricky part to the forecast
will be for the potential of some blocked flow in the Champlain
Valley on Monday which may allow some of the snow showers to back
into western Addison and western Chittenden but the main focus will
continue to be on the western slopes. Our snow ratios on Monday will
not be on the fluffy side as the cold air advection is weak 850 mb
temps only dropping to about -10 degrees C by Tuesday morning. The
ratios will trend from 12:1 Monday morning to about 18:1 by Tuesday
morning which should allow for an additional 2-4 inches of snow
along the western slopes with little to none in the deeper valleys.
Temperatures on Monday will also be on the warm side with many
locations at or above freezing expect for elevations above 2000 ft
which will also inhibit snow accumulations in the deeper valleys.
Tuesday will be much cooler as a strong push of cooler air dives
south with highs climbing into the mid to upper 20s.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 334 PM EST Saturday...Strong surface high pressure will build
south across the North Country on Wednesday and bring clearing skies
and light and variable winds. This high pressure system will remain
entrenched across the region through the first half of Saturday and
will help usher in the return of near normal high temperatures.
Lows, on the other hand, will likely be below normal as we have some
nice radiational cooling nights ahead underneath the 1025+ mb high.
Lows will be the coldest Wednesday night as temps drop to the single
digits above and below zero and will slowly moderate as we head
toward the end of the work week. The next chance of precipitation
doesn`t occur until the upcoming weekend where there is a lot of
uncertainty with the track of a low tracking up the east coast.
There is the potential for a good storm system but also the
potential this low tracks well off to our east with no impacts. Stay
tuned in the coming days for updates regarding this system.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Through 00Z Monday...Widespread precipitation will continue
through 04z and then begin to gradually taper off between 04z
and 12z. The majority of the precipitation will be in the form
of rain or snow and visibilities will be in the 1 to 3 mile
range through 04z and then in the 3 to 6 mile range between 04z
and 12z. At the same time ceilings will be in the MVFR category
but lower into the IFR and LIFR categories after 04z and persist
through 14z. Ceilings will improve into the MVFR category after
14z and continue right through the remainder of the period.
After 14z visibilities will improve into the MVFR and VFR
categories as scattered snow showers are expected. Low level
wind shear will continue through 04z over much of the area in
response to southeast winds at 2000 feet in the 40 to 50 knot
range. Winds will taper off after 04z with speeds generally
under 10 knots for the remainder of the period.

Outlook...

Sunday Night: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Chance SHSN.
Monday: Mainly MVFR, with local VFR possible. Chance SHSN, Chance
SHRA.
Monday Night: Mainly MVFR, with local VFR possible. Chance SHSN.
Tuesday: Mainly MVFR, with local VFR possible. Slight chance
SHSN.
Tuesday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Thursday: VFR. NO SIG WX.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...Winter Weather Advisory until 4 AM EST Sunday for VTZ003-004-
     006>008-010-012-018-019.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Banacos
NEAR TERM...Evenson/Banacos
SHORT TERM...Clay
LONG TERM...Clay
AVIATION...Evenson