000
FXUS61 KBTV 250224
AFDBTV
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
1024 PM EDT Wed Apr 24 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
After a strong cold front moved through today, expect cold
temperatures tonight with lows in the 20s. Thursday will be dry and
sunny, but chilly with highs only in the 40s. Another cold night
can be expected Thursday night before a warming trend starts Friday.
Rain chances return Saturday evening and last into early next week,
though showers would be on and off in nature and a washout on any
particular day.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
As of 1021 PM EDT Wednesday...Clear skies will prevail overnight
tonight with cold air advection bringing lows to the 20s and
even some teens in the cold hollows. Overall, the forecast is on
track. One adjustment made was to increase dew points again with
this update as the air is not quite as dry as expected. This
should have minimal impact on the conditions tonight, though.
Winds are tapering off slightly quicker than expected, but
northwesterly winds continue to mix throughout the night, never
becoming completely calm. Previous discussion below:
Previous discussion...Once today`s precipitation comes to
an end later this afternoon/evening, we`ll see drier weather for
a few days. The center of a surface anticyclone will remain to
our west overnight tonight into Thursday morning, so expect to
see some continued northwesterly breezes 5-15 mph tonight that
will diminish towards morning. Temperatures tonight will be cold
amid strong post-frontal cold air advection. Lows will reach
into the upper teens in the colder hollows of the northern
Adirondacks and Northeast Kingdom, otherwise expect lows in the
20s elsewhere. These values are within a few degrees of record
minimums for some sites, but at this point no record lows are
forecast to be broken. The growing season has not yet begun, but
anyone with early vulnerable crops should take precautions to
protect them for the next couple of nights, especially in places
of higher elevation where the coldest temperatures are
expected.
The center of the high pressure system will gradually edge closer
Thursday, allowing for a sunny but chilly spring day with
diminishing winds. High temperatures will only top out in the 40s
for much of the area, which is a good 10+ degrees below seasonable
normals for this time of year. Dewpoints are forecast in the single
digits to teens during the afternoon, which will result in minimum
relative humidities between 25 and 35 percent. Despite the low
relative humidities, winds will be light enough to preclude fire
weather concerns.
The center of the high will shift directly overhead by Thursday
night, setting up ideal radiational cooling conditions. Have
continued to trend towards the NBM 10th percentile temperature
forecast. Another cold night can be expected with lows in the low
to upper 20s...with some isolated lows in the teens possible in the
colder hollows.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
As of 324 PM EDT Wednesday...A high pressure system moving into the
Labrador Sea will be controlling our weather for the end of the
week, with Friday looking like a great day to be outside. Clear
skies and light winds will allow temperatures to rise rapidly
through the morning hours, reaching into upper 50s in valley
locations. Clouds will begin to move in during the overnight hours,
keeping temperatures near climatological normal values.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 324 PM EDT Wednesday...A series of shortwaves will make their
way over the northeast throughout the remainder of the forecast
period, bringing a chance of rain every single day of the long term
forecast. The western edge of our CWA could see rain as early as 18z
Saturday, with the highest pops occurring just after 00z. By Monday
and Tuesday, we`ll start seeing above normal temperatures. The
current high temperature forecast shows widespread 70s reaching from
the Saint Lawrence Valley all the way into the Northeast Kingdom.
The additional thermodynamic instability associated with this
warming trend could lead to thunderstorm activity in the afternoon
of both days.
&&
.AVIATION /03Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Through 00Z Friday...Gradient winds are decreasing faster than
expected in general with northwesterly gusts 18kts or less. By
03Z, gusts will taper down with flow remaining north through
northwest for the remainder of the period. VFR conditions are
expected to persist with low level moisture being scoured out by
a dry airmass building across the North Country. Overall, the
next 24hrs will be very benign in terms of aviation weather with
high pressure in place.
Outlook...
Thursday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Friday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Friday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Saturday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Saturday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Likely
SHRA.
Sunday: MVFR. Chance SHRA.
Sunday Night: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Chance SHRA.
Monday: Mainly MVFR, with areas IFR possible. Chance SHRA.
&&
.CLIMATE...
Min Temp Records
DateKBTV KMPV KMSS KPBG KSLK
04-25 20|1919 17|1965 21|1974 23|2003 10|1956
04-26 20|1919 22|1967 22|1972 23|1972 12|1919
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Duell
NEAR TERM...Duell/Storm
SHORT TERM...Langbauer
LONG TERM...Langbauer
AVIATION...Boyd
CLIMATE...WFO BTV
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