FXUS61 KBTV 130753
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
353 AM EDT Tue Apr 13 2021
Quiet weather is expected to continue through Wednesday as we remain
trapped between two upper level lows. Temperatures will remain
seasonal, albeit above normal, with highs in the 60s and lows in the
30s and 40s. The upper level low to our west will move toward the
North Country on Thursday which will bring the next chance of rain,
and possibly mountain snow, to the region. Precipitation chances
will continue into early this weekend before high pressure builds
back across the region.
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 353 AM EDT Tuesday...The blocking pattern will persist through
the near term, keeping conditions mainly dry across the North
Country. Other than a few early morning showers across the southern
St Lawrence Valley, today and tonight will feature a mix of sun and
clouds along with light winds. Highs this afternoon will be in the
lower to mid 60s, followed by overnight lows in the mid 30s to mid
40s. We finally start to transition out of this pattern on Wednesday
as the upper low pressure that`s been positioned to our west starts
to shift eastward. Moisture will begin to increase as the weak flow
turns more west-southwest ahead of this feature. Lower levels will
be fairly dry under ample mixing and forcing will be quite limited,
but the increasing moisture aloft along with daytime heating and
orographic effects may be enough to allow a few showers to develop
Wednesday afternoon, mainly over the High Peaks of the Adirondacks
and the southern Greens. Coverage will be limited, so expect most
locations will remain dry. Highs will be similar to today, in the
lower to mid 60s, with a few spots approaching 70.
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 325 PM EDT Monday...Upper low remains far enough to our
west on Wednesday and Wednesday night that much of the area
should remain dry. Cannot rule out a shower or two during the
afternoon over northern New York, but that is about it. High
temperatures will generally be in the 60s with lows Wednesday
night in the mid 30s to mid 40s.
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 325 PM EDT Monday...Still no consistency in the long
range data with the next upper low moving toward the region
Thursday into Friday. But here is what we do know...upper low
will approach the region Thursday, but then the blocking pattern
will force it to our south and east. This will establish a
north to south gradient of precipitation chances with highest
south and lowest north. Dynamic cooling associated with the
upper low suggests temperatures just off the surface would cool
enough to produce some high elevation snow, generally above 1000
feet. At this time the southern Green Mountains would have the
best chance at seeing some of this snow. Given how the longer
range data has struggled overall with the blocking pattern, kept
precipitation probabilities in the slight chance to chance
category. But the values are higher based on NBM Viewer
probabilities of 0.01 and 0.10 inches with this event. System
eventually moves far enough south and east for precipitation to
come to an end and dry weather returns for Saturday. A few
showers will be possible on Sunday as an upper trough approaches
the region. Overall still looking above normal temperatures,
generally several degrees above normal.
.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Through 06Z Wednesday...Mainly VFR, though some low-level
moisture may get trapped below mountain ridges in light flow,
with FEW to SCT at 2000-2500ft AGL mentioned at a number of
terminals from about 06Z-12Z. The exception is KSLK which is now
reporting broken ceilings at 2800 ft, which will persist through
12z. However, think KSLK is most likely to see MVFR ceilings
from a BKN025 deck. After 12z, expect all sites to continue with
scattered clouds 2500-5000 ft. Winds remain fairly light
through daybreak and mainly influenced by terrain. So,
southeasterly winds will develop overnight at KRUT with
northeast winds at KMSS. After 14Z, winds will become a bit more
northeast to north- northwest with speeds 5 to 10 knots.
Wednesday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Thursday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance RA.
Thursday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance RA.
Friday: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Chance RA.
Friday Night: Mainly MVFR, with areas IFR possible. Slight chance
Saturday: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. NO SIG WX.