202
FXUS61 KBTV 081739
AFDBTV
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
139 PM EDT Fri May 8 2026
.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
As of 218 AM EDT Friday...
No significant changes have been made with this forecast package.
&&
.KEY MESSAGES...
As of 218 AM EDT Friday...
1. Isolated to scattered rain showers possible this afternoon
with another round of frost expected overnight.
2. A series of frontal boundaries will bring rainfall to the
North Country and northern New York this weekend.
3. Generally quiet weather for the middle and later portions of
next week with a few showers possible Thursday, but with little
impact.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
As of 218 AM EDT Friday...
KEY MESSAGE 1: A very low amplitude shortwave trough will likely pass
through the region prior to peak heating this afternoon and could
spark a few showers. Near dry adiabatic low level and mid level
lapse rates could support a few "stronger" showers that could bring
some moderate rainfall will be possible. Given the low melting
layer, some graupel or very small hail may also be possible. A
plethora of dry air in the low levels will likely keep any
precipitation at the surface on the low side with well under a tenth
of an inch of rainfall expected from the shower activity this
afternoon. Skies will clear again overnight with light winds
expected. This will once again help frost formation outside of the
Champlain Valley, thus no frost headlines are warranted given the
current status of the growing season.
KEY MESSAGE 2: A warm front will lift north across the region on
Saturday. Rainfall is expected across portions of souther and
central Vermont as well as the Adirondacks as the deep layer
moisture likely remains shunted to our south with the mid level
vorticity maximum located over northern Vermont. We are still
looking at under a quarter of an inch of rain across southern
Vermont with northern Vermont and much of northern New York likely
to remain on the dry side throughout the day on Saturday. A cold
front will push through Sunday morning and bring more widespread
rainfall to the region. This rain should be light, overall, given
the lack of instability and weak upper level forcing but it could
provide another widespread wetting rain to help quell any fire
concerns across the region. Monday should also be unsettled as we
will still remain under the influence of a synoptic scale upper
level low with a few weak disturbances pushing across the region.
With the lack of any low level convergence, rain showers will be
widely scattered and may be tied to the higher elevations.
KEY MESSAGE 3: National guidance continues to support the idea that the
Northeast will lie under broad cyclonic upper troughing of modest
amplitude for the Tue-Fri time frame. Dry weather should be the rule
for much of this period, though shortwave energy may spark some
scattered shower activity by Thursday or so. Confidence is only
modest in regard to timing and areal coverage/precipitation amounts
with this feature. Temperatures should average slightly on the cool
side Tuesday, with moderation expected toward mid-May seasonal norms
by the late week time frame under a mainly light wind regime.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Through 18Z Saturday...A few showers are occurring out there
under cyclonic flow aloft and decently steep low level lapse
rates. Given low level dry air, showers have remained VFR;
chances continue into early this evening until surface
instability wains. Conditions likely remain VFR for all
terminals through 12Z Saturday before some showers shift
northward with CIGs lowering at RUT. Some MVFR conditions are
possible 14-18Z Saturday, but southeast winds at RUT will help
delay IFR concerns until more persistent showers move into
southern Vermont. Otherwise, westerly flow shifts southerly
overnight and increases after 12Z Saturday. Channeling in the
northern Champlain Valley will promote some gusts in excess of
20kts at BTV/PBG.
Outlook...
Saturday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance
SHRA.
Sunday: VFR. Chance SHRA.
Sunday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA.
Monday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
Monday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.
&&
$$
WHAT HAS CHANGED...Clay
DISCUSSION...JMG/Clay
AVIATION...Boyd
|
