225
FXUS61 KBTV 302349
AFDBTV
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
649 PM EST Tue Dec 30 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
Scattered snow showers will continue into tonight, remaining
mostly focused in the higher elevations. Our next chance for
more widespread snow arrives New Years Eve, with most areas
seeing 1 to 2 inches of snow by daybreak New Years Day.
Seasonably cold weather continues into the New Year along with
occasional chances for mountain snow showers.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 125 PM EST Tuesday...Scattered snow showers will continue
through tonight, particularly across the higher terrain.
However, westerly to slightly northwesterly flow is keeping lake
Ontario moisture to the south so they are on the relatively
light side. Unblocked flow and strong winds are keeping the
heavier snow showers in the higher terrain and to the east.
Temperatures are cold, but sustained winds in the 10-20 mph
range are causing wind chills to generally remain in the single
digits above and below zero. While temperatures will fall a few
degrees tonight, winds will gradually come down a bit so wind
chills will likely not drop much. The upslope snow showers will
eventually taper off tomorrow morning and dry conditions should
persist into the afternoon. Temperatures should rise about ten
degrees higher than today, and with lighter winds, it will feel
much warmer.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
As of 125 PM EST Tuesday...The brief dry stretch will end as
another clipper moves into the region for New Years Eve night.
Southwest flow ahead of it will help transport Lake Ontario
moisture into the region and enough synoptic forcing will cause
some light to moderate snowfall to develop. There could be a few
heavier convective snow showers as the front moves through on
the backside. Right now, it looks to bring 1-2 inches for most
places away from the Canadian border. With relatively quick
motion and a lack of significant moisture, any high end amounts
would be relatively low. A colder airmass will arrive on the
backside of the clipper with temperatures similar to today, but
the benefit will be that winds will be much lighter, so wind
chills will be higher.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 125 PM EST Tuesday...A stagnant weather pattern will
prevail with troughiness over Vermont and northern New York as
we initiate 2026. Seasonably cool weather will be favored
between intervals of dry weather. Occasional troughs embedded
within the cyclonic flow will be able to pull some lake moisture
into the region to produce some snow and reinforce cool air in
place. So temperatures in the daytime will largely remain in the
20s with nighttime lows in the single digits to teens, and as
we approach, we`ll monitor whether any clearer patches can allow
some radiational cooling.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Through 00Z Thursday...IFR conditions continue at SLK . An
arctic inversion is expected to lower, and MVFR ceilings will be
possible through 03z. Continued drying and unblocked flow will
eventually cause clouds to scatter. Any lingering snow showers
will also end. Sustained northwest winds of 10 to 15 knots,
locally higher, and gusts 20 to 30 knots will continue before
slowly subsiding overnight. Snow showers are likely to begin
lifting back northeastwards into the region beyond 18z
Wednesday.
Outlook...
Wednesday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance
SHSN.
New Years Day: VFR. Slight chance SHSN.
Thursday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Friday: VFR. Slight chance SHSN.
Friday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHSN.
Saturday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Saturday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Sunday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight chance SHSN.
&&
.MARINE...
Sustained winds in the 15-30 kt range are expected to continue
into the overnight hours tonight. Waves will stay on the lower
side due to the westerly component of the wind, so they are only
expected to reach the 1-3 foot range for most places, though
approaching 4 ft on the eastern side of the broad lake. Winds
will drop to around 10 kt by late tonight night and waves will
drop to around and below a foot.
&&
.EQUIPMENT...
NOAA Weather Radio station WXM-44, transmitting from Mt.
Ascutney, Vermont, on frequency 162.475 MHz is non-operational
at this time. NWS technicians have diagnosed the problem, but
repairs will likely not be able to occur for quite some time due
to circumstances beyond our control. Therefore, the time of
return to service is currently unknown. The following NOAA
Weather Radio transmitters may be able to provide service during
this outage: WWG 50 from Burke Mtn, VT at 162.425 MHz and WNG
546 from Hanover, NH at 162.525 MHz.
The Colchester Reef meteorological station is out of service.
This site is not serviced by the NWS and there isn`t an
estimated return to service at present. Use extra caution when
navigating the broad waters of Lake Champlain. Please contact us
if you observe winds significantly deviating from the
recreational forecast.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Myskowski
NEAR TERM...Myskowski
SHORT TERM...Myskowski
LONG TERM...Haynes
AVIATION...Haynes/Neiles
MARINE...Hastings
EQUIPMENT...Team BTV
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