018
FXUS61 KBTV 220641
AFDBTV
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
141 AM EST Mon Dec 22 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will bring seasonably cold temperatures to the North
Country today. Expect some light snow showers to redevelop this
afternoon across the northern Adirondacks into northern Vermont
associated with a weak mid-level trough. A separate clipper system
approaching from the Great Lakes region will bring steady light snow
to the region starting during the day on Tuesday, and continuing
into Tuesday night and early Wednesday. Several inches of snow
accumulation will likely bring at least some minor travel impacts to
the North Country during this time period. Quieter conditions are
expected for Christmas Eve and Christmas Day.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 138 AM EST Monday...Surface ridge axis over sern Ontario and
the ern Great Lakes region will shift ewd this morning. The surface
map is somewhat deceptive, as a band of mid-level moisture will also
be shifting into our region on nwly 700-500mb flow by the midday
hours. Despite weak large-scale forcing, looking at a combination
of low-level swly upslope flow into the Adirondacks and potential
saturated DGZ with 00Z HRRR indicating DGZ depths of 7-9kft
developing across the northern Adirondacks during the mid-late
morning hours. As such, indicating increasing cloud cover and a
period of light snow - mainly across nrn NY zones this
afternoon. Snow accumulations will be light, generally an inch
or less, but again, somewhat deceptive situation given sfc ridge
axis cresting overhead. Elsewhere, may see a few light snow
showers this afternoon across nwrn/n-central VT as well, with
little or no accumulation. After a chilly start with daybreak
temps in the single digits to lower teens areawide, will only
get into the 23-28F range for highs in most locations this aftn.
Temperatures may locally remain in the teens across far nern
VT.
Mostly cloudy conditions remain in place tonight, but with shallower
moist layer not expecting more than a few flurries for the balance
of the night. It will be toward daybreak Tuesday that the next
shortwave trough brings redeveloping snowfall across far wrn CWA
(i.e., St Lawrence County), but appears that will mostly hold off
until during the daylight hours Tuesday. With lingering cloudiness,
overnight lows won`t be quite as cold tonight...mainly in the upper
teens to lower 20s from the Champlain Valley wwd across all of nrn
NY. East of the Green Mountains, lows in the low-mid teens are
expected.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 138 AM EST Monday...Forecast remains on track with approaching
clipper system from the central Great Lakes region bringing a
prolonged period of steady light snow beginning during the day
Tuesday and continue thru the first half of Wednesday. Appears snow
will begin to overspread northern NY during the mid-late morning
hours Tuesday, and then overspread VT mainly during the afternoon
hours, where PoPs is in the 80-100% range. It is noteworthy that the
00Z HRRR is more bullish with low-level WAA and potential above
freezing layer aloft resulting in potential mixed precipitation
across nrn NY and rain across far swrn St. Lawrence County by 21Z
Tuesday. While this is a possible, the HRRR is an outlier in the 00Z
NWP guidance suite, and have kept precipitation type as all
snow across the region. Temperatures get near to slightly above
freezing in the valleys Tuesday, and that may result in some
reduction of snow accumulations with lower SLRs in the Champlain
Valley and St. Lawrence Valley in particular.
As trough axis passes thru Tuesday evening, flow eventually becomes
more nwly with better orographic snow potential Tuesday night into
the first half of Wednesday. This will help drive up snow
accumulations across the higher elevations with this event.
All in all, expecting 2-4" in most valley locations, with 4-8"
across the Adirondacks and higher summits of the Green Mtns. If
orographic snow is maximized, may see some localized higher totals
from Mt. Mansfield nwd to Jay Peak. Snow rates are not expected to
be excessive, but likely a winter weather advisory situation for the
northern Adirondacks and portions of central and n-central/nern VT.
With snow not beginning until Tuesday, will allow dayshift to take a
look at the latest guidance to make any adjustments before deciding
on headlines. Those with travel plans Tues/Tues Night and the first
half of Wednesday should expect at least minor travel impacts,
especially across higher terrain areas. Allow extra time to reach
your destination during this time frame.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 138 AM EST Monday...The overnight of Christmas Eve for Santa`s
flight will be on the calm side with light southerly flow and
temperatures in the mid to upper teens and near 20 in the Champlain
Valley. Northwest flow will return on Christmas with little chances
for precipitation. A brief shortwave will pass over northern Vermont
spurring slight chance to chance PoPs mainly along the spine of the
Greens, especially near Jay Peak. However, moisture will be hard to
come by with the parent low center over northern Quebec and dew
point depressions outside of the spine of the Greens about 10F.
Christmas will feature mostly cloudy to overcast skies with highs
increasing to near 30, with perhaps near freezing in the Champlain
valley, but any warming will be combating north/northwest light caa.
The next potentially impactful system will arrive late Christmas
night into Friday next week. There still remains a lot of
uncertainty with this system, however, recent trends have followed a
more cold solution, favoring all snow for the region. Notably, the
00Z GFS has indicated a much southward jog with the center of the
clipper over the Mohawk Valley in New York. Northwest flow would
favor this cooler solution, though the south jog may be too far for
any decent snowfall taking us away from best deep layer moisture and
snowfall rates. The ECMWF and CMC still favor an area of forcing
over the area with a more zonal pattern. However, given it is still
a few days out, the track will still wobble some. We will watch the
evolution of this system in the models for trends in the coming
days.
Beyond the Friday system, our flow pattern looks to become quite
amplified with brief ridging Saturday before another impactful system
on Sunday arrives with a deepening mature mid-level cyclone and
potentially unseasonably warm temperatures.
&&
.AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Through 06Z Tuesday...Low level moisture at SLK/EFK/MPV have allowed
lower ceilings and brief residual snow showers leading to MVFR
conditions. Any snow showers/flurries should end by 08Z, with model
soundings suggesting lower ceilings generally 1500-2500ft agl
persisting through 11Z. However, with a ridge axis cresting
overhead, there may be some periods of VFR ceilings, such that a
TEMPO group was used at SLK. Outside of SLK/EFK/MPV terminals will
remain VFR through the next 8 or so hours. A warm front will pass
through northern New York by about 16Z with chances of some light
snow showers and a return to MVFR. Model soundings have indicated
the potential of IFR vsbys with these showers, however, forcing
looks light and have only reduced prevailing groups to MVFR vsbys at
SLK/MSS and used PROB30 with IFR to 2SM at SLK. Additionally, cigs
will fall back to 2000-3000ft agl at EFK/SLK/MSS, with some 1500-
2000ft agl cigs at SLK by 00Z. Some semi-blocked flow at BTV/EFK
could result in brief periods of snow showers, but impacts should be
minimal. All sites will see lowering ceilings towards MVFR by the
end of this TAF period tomorrow night. Winds will continue to become
light to calm today from the northwest, becoming south/southwest in
the 5-10 kt range between 16-20Z as the warm front passes through.
Outlook...
Tuesday: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. Likely SN.
Tuesday Night: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Definite SN.
Wednesday: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Christmas Day: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight
chance SHSN.
Thursday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance
SHSN.
Friday: VFR. Chance SN, Chance RA.
&&
.EQUIPMENT...
NOAA Weather Radio station WXM-44, transmitting from Mt.
Ascutney, Vermont, on frequency 162.475 MHz is non-operational
at this time. NWS technicians have diagnosed the problem, but
repairs will likely not be able to occur for quite some time due
to circumstances beyond our control. Therefore, the time of
return to service is currently unknown. The following NOAA
Weather Radio transmitters may be able to provide service during
this outage: WWG 50 from Burke Mtn, VT at 162.425 MHz and WNG
546 from Hanover, NH at 162.525 MHz.
The Colchester Reef meteorological station is out of service.
This site is not serviced by the NWS and there isn`t an
estimated return to service at present. Use extra caution when
navigating the broad waters of Lake Champlain. Please contact us
if you observe winds significantly deviating from the
recreational forecast.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Banacos
NEAR TERM...Banacos
SHORT TERM...Banacos
LONG TERM...Danzig
AVIATION...Danzig
EQUIPMENT...Team BTV
|
