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  Monday September 16, 2019

 

NWS Area Forecast Discussion


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749
FXUS61 KBTV 152336
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
736 PM EDT Sun Sep 15 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
Cloud cover will continue to increase across the North Country this
afternoon as a series of upper level disturbances push through the
region. Rainfall, for the most part, will fall south of the forecast
area with decreasing clouds expected on Monday. Afternoon high
temperatures on Monday will be a few degrees below normal with
readings in the mid to upper 60s but will gradually warm each day to
above normal temperatures by Friday with highs in the mid to upper
70s. It`s possible we could see 80 degree temperatures across the
Champlain and St. Lawrence Valleys by next weekend but most
locations should remain in the 70s. With strong high pressure
building into the region, it`s looking like we shouldn`t see much in
terms of either clouds or rain this week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
As of 730 PM EDT Sunday...Another quick update to remove fog
from the forecast for tonight. While there will be clearing
behind this shortwave and ahead of the next one, expect clouds
will begin filtering back over the region later tonight. Also
expect winds just off the deck to remain on the breezy side,
which would be more favorable for a stratus deck. Indeed,
satellite imagery shows low clouds developing over the region as
the shortwave departs. Have also adjusted cloud cover as well.
Otherwise the forecast is in good shape and no other changes
were needed.

Previous discussion...Cloud cover ahead of a series of
shortwaves will continue to overspread the North Country this
afternoon. Although radar images continue to show light echoes
(20-30 dBZ), the bulk of the rainfall is evaporating before
being able to make it to the ground. Model soundings show a
plethora of dry air in both the mid-levels and low- levels which
should continue to evaporate much of the rainfall as it falls
through the atmosphere. There could be a few pockets of light
drizzle in areas with the highest returns but no measurable
rainfall is expected this afternoon. A second and more potent
shortwave will arrive late tonight but it look like it should
drop to our south which would leave us once again on the dry
side. The models show increasing and steepening northwesterly
flow aloft which supports the theory that the rainfall tonight
and early tomorrow morning will remain to our south. There could
be some pockets of fog, mainly across eastern Vermont,
overnight but should be patchy in nature with any fog that does
develop overnight.

Monday looks like it`ll the epitome of a beautiful late summer day
across the North Country. Surface high pressure will begin to
establish itself across the region on Sunday and drier air will
begin to filter in from Canada. Temperatures will be a few degrees
cooler than today with highs climbing into the mid to upper 60s.
Skies will clear throughout the day with mostly sunny, if not clear,
skies expected by late afternoon. Monday night will be on the chilly
side with lows in the upper 30s to upper 40s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 252 PM EDT Sunday...1026 mb high pressure centered over eastern
Quebec will supply another beautiful early fall day to the
North Country Tuesday with mostly sunny skies, light winds, and
low humidity. 850 mb temperatures around 5 deg C support surface
high temperatures in the mid to upper 60s. Overnight lows
Tuesday night will be chilly under mostly clear skies. Parts of
the Northeast Kingdom of Vermont and the northern Adirondacks of
New York will drop into the mid 30s, where the potential for
some patchy frost does exist. The rest of the forecast area will
see lows in the low to mid 40s.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 252 PM EDT Sunday...Continued strong consensus amongst
both deterministic and ensemble models in anomalously strong
ridging building in through the end of the week...leading to
high confidence in a prolonged period of dry weather. Initially,
deep northerly flow will be in place with upper ridge axis to
our west and surface high pressure to our north. As the week
progresses and the high shifts further east, the magnitude of
cold air advection will decrease. Eventually by Thursday, upper
ridge axis will be overhead and surface high shifts
southeastward to Mid Atlantic Coast, leading to developing
southwesterly return flow. Consequently, expecting a warming
trend as the week goes on with temperatures in the upper 60s/low
70s on Wednesday...pushing close to 80 by the weekend. Lack of
moisture in the atmosphere will initially support effective
radiational cooling Wednesday night with lows in the 40s, but
the onset of warm air advection/moisture advection Thursday will
keep overnight lows generally above 50 deg F through the end of
the week.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Through 00Z Tuesday...Mainly VFR conditions expected through the
period as high pressure builds just to our west. The exception
will be some MVFR ceilings at KSLK/KMPV due to stratus
development as mid- clouds associated with shortwave exit to the
east. Don`t anticipate fog at this time as any clearing will be
early this evening and winds just off the surface will remain
more favorable for stratus development. MVFR conditions will be
most persistent 07z-14z, then VFR will prevail at locations
with just a few clouds. Surface winds will be light north
through the overnight, then pick up to 5-10 kt after daybreak
Monday.

Outlook...

Monday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Thursday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Thursday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Friday: VFR. NO SIG WX.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Clay
NEAR TERM...Clay/Hastings
SHORT TERM...Duell
LONG TERM...Duell
AVIATION...Clay/Hastings



 
 
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