000
FXUS61 KBTV 201052
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
652 AM EDT Mon Aug 20 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
Dry weather and slightly above normal temperatures are expected
across the North Country today as high pressure exists over the
area. Most of Tuesday will be dry as well...but a slow moving low
pressure system will eventually bring fairly widespread rain to the
area...especially Tuesday night into Wednesday. Drier weather will
return for Thursday and Friday along with seasonal temperatures.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 652 AM EDT Monday...Continued minor tweaks to current
cloud trends across the area based on satellite trends...
essentially keeping them in the forecast through mid-morning.
Rest of forecast in real good shape and no other changes are
needed at this time.

Previous Discussion...
There has been just enough cloud cover over the area to help
limit the development of fog early this morning. We were not
expecting anything like yesterday... but favored locations could
still see some development in the next few hours. Otherwise
looking at a dry day today with a good deal of sunshine and
highs in the mid 70s to lower 80s...which would be a degree or
two warmer than yesterday. The dry weather continues into
tonight...but we should start to see surface high pressure
moving east of the area and south to southwest flow developing
ahead on a slow moving upper trough. There will likely be a
sharp precipitation gradient with no precipitation expected
across eastern Vermont and the best precipitation chances
occurring in the Saint Lawrence Valley of New York later in the
afternoon. Overall looking at an increase in mid and high level
clouds throughout the day and highs on Tuesday once again being
in the mid 70s to lower 80s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 323 AM EDT Monday...Precipitation becomes fairly
widespread across the entire area Tuesday night into early
Wednesday as upper trough finally moves into the region. Could
even see the potential for some thunder and have continued this
idea in the forecast... especially over northern New York. Winds
will be picking up as well with deepening low pressure moving
up into Canada. The upper trough moves east of the area on
Wednesday...especially in the afternoon... and this will help to
start bringing precipitation to an end from west to east in the
afternoon. Rainfall amounts from Tuesday afternoon through
Wednesday afternoon will range from one- third to two-thirds of
an inch. Highs on Wednesday will generally be in the 70s due to
the clouds and precipitation.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 323 AM EDT Monday...Long term forecast trends much
quieter after the departure of the mid-week low pressure system.
Wednesday night, cold front will have cleared the forecast
area, allowing for the subsequent arrival of cooler and drier
air from the north. Low temperatures will be 5-10 degrees cooler
Wednesday night than Tuesday night, with lows in the 50s
forecast for most of the area. The upper-level trough will
remain over the region through Thursday, then lift to the
northeast Thursday night. Beneath the trough and it`s associated
cooler air aloft, should be fairly well mixed in the boundary
layer. As such, could see some breezy northerly/westerly wind
during the afternoon hours, along with some of the lower
dewpoints we`ve observed in quite some time. Should overall be a
very refreshing day after the recent warm temperatures.

Ridging builds in aloft Friday through Friday night, then the next
chance for rain comes Saturday evening/Sunday morning as a weak
shortwave moves through. Given the strength of the downstream
ridging however, it`s uncertain how much impact this wave will have
on New England`s weather this weekend. Have introduced PoPs in the
15% to 30% range Saturday night through Sunday, but details of this
weekend`s forecast remain yet to be ironed out.  Temperatures will
remain fairly steady, with highs in the upper 70s/low 80s and
lows in the 50s to mid 60s Friday through Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Through 06z Tuesday...Some mid and high level clouds exist over
the area early this morning and this is helping to limit the
development of fog early this morning. Eventually low clouds and
fog will develop at KSLK and KMPV between 08z and 12z and
produce IFR to VLIFR conditions. The low clouds and fog burn off
at these site between 12z and 14z with VFR conditions expected
for the remainder of the period. At all other TAF sites VFR
conditions are expected through the entire period with no fog
expected and just some mid and high level clouds. Winds will
generally be under 10 knots through the period.

Outlook...

Tuesday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
Tuesday Night: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Definite
SHRA.
Wednesday: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Likely SHRA,
Slight chance TSRA.
Wednesday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. NO SIG WX.
Thursday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Thursday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Friday: VFR. NO SIG WX.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Evenson
NEAR TERM...Evenson
SHORT TERM...Evenson
LONG TERM...RSD
AVIATION...Evenson