988
FXUS61 KBTV 031849
AFDBTV
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
249 PM EDT Sun May 3 2026
.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
As of 248 PM EDT Sunday...
No significant changes.
&&
.KEY MESSAGES...
As of 248 PM EDT Sunday...
1. Mostly quiet weather through tomorrow night.
2. Showers arrive Tuesday afternoon and evening, preceded by
windy conditions.
3. No major impacts or significant weather expected late week
into next weekend, as pattern continues to support unsettled
conditions with below normal temperatures.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
As of 248 PM EDT Sunday...
KEY MESSAGE 1: Weak ridging dominates through tomorrow night, bringing
mostly dry weather. The exception is tonight, where a few scattered
showers move through. They will be light with only a few hundredths
of precipitation falling at most. These will be snow showers in the
mountains where a light dusting is possible in the highest peaks.
Temperatures will return to seasonable normals for Monday with highs
in the 60s.
KEY MESSAGE 2: A cold front pushes into the region Tuesday afternoon
and evening, bringing a line of showers. While a few scattered
showers are possible earlier, the organized precipitation looks to
enter northern New York in the afternoon and Vermont in the evening.
Enough heating looks to occur ahead of it that CAPE values rise to
around 250 to 500 J. The limiting feature for storm development will
be moisture, with surface dew points looking to be in the 40s and
low 50s at the time of the precipitation`s arrival. While there is
abundant deep layer shear, due to the limited instability, strong to
severe storms currently look unlikely, though a few rumbles of
thunder are possible. The area to watch would be if something
develops along a pre-frontal trough in the afternoon, something akin
to what the NAM3 has, though its dew points currently look too high.
However the scenario will be watched as it enters the range of the
other CAMs. Widespread showers should occur Tuesday night as the
front slows down across the region, but by that point, the
precipitation should be mostly stratiform and synoptically forced.
Out ahead of the precipitation, a strong southwesterly low-level jet
moves overhead. Gusts in the 25-35 mph look likely, with locally
higher values possible in the St. Lawrence Valley and northern
Adirondacks due to channeling and downsloping.
KEY MESSAGE 3: Not much change from the previous long term outlook as
the trend of a less phased and progressive trough passage continues
for mid to late week. Ridging across the western CONUS will lead to
positively tilted troughing across the Northeast CONUS with several
embedded shortwaves. Phasing between a northern stream of energy and
a southern stream of energy riding up from the central Plains
continues to trend unlikely with a more eastward shift to the
central axis of moisture. The NAEFS ensemble denotes this well with
moisture anomalies more centered over New Hampshire and southern New
England. Regardless, shortwave passages will trend temperatures
cooler for the later portion of the week with the coolest day based
on thickness values and 925 to 850 mb thermal profiles likely on
Friday. Daytime highs will be in the upper 30s to near 40 for
summits and in the low to mid 50s for the wider valleys.
Precipitation chances, regardless of system phasing, WPC still
appears to denote chance pops in the higher terrain and chance pops
in the valleys which is reasonable given cooling aloft and low level
instability which should garner some isolated to scattered showers
through the end of the week. This, however, does show a slight trend
down in PoPs from previous runs, showing the uncertainty of the late
week systems. Given the lack of strong high pres directly overhead
and the potential for clouds, the probability of widespread frost in
areas where the growing season has started is low attm.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Through 18Z Monday...VFR conditions are expected to continue through
at least 04Z for all terminals with scattered to broken mid to upper
level clouds. Winds will generally be between 5 to 15 knots today
with periodic gusts to 15 to 20, locally higher gusts possible this
afternoon at MPV/RUT. Winds will gradually shift from the
west/northwest to the south/southwest overnight tonight as a weak
warm front lifts across the region. This boundary will bring some
lowering ceilings towards MVFR by 06Z with some chances for isolated
to scattered light rain, mainly across MSS/SLK and perhaps PBG.
Localized wind shear is also possible as the warm front lifts
through due to the changing of wind direction and speed with height
overnight. Any shower activity clears around 12-14Z tomorrow with
winds beginning to increase. South winds will increase 10 to 15
knots with gusts up to 20 to 30 knots by tomorrow afternoon; higher
of the gusts will be at MSS/SLK.
Outlook...
Monday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday: VFR. Chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA.
Tuesday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Definite
SHRA.
Wednesday: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. Definite SHRA.
Wednesday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance
SHRA.
Thursday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance SHRA.
Thursday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance
SHRA.
Friday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance SHRA.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.
&&
$$
WHAT HAS CHANGED...Myskowski
DISCUSSION...Myskowski/Danzig
AVIATION...Danzig
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