000
FXUS61 KBTV 240810
AFDBTV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Burlington VT
410 AM EDT Wed Apr 24 2019
.SYNOPSIS...
Cooler and cloudy weather will prevail across the North Country
today with temperatures mainly in the 40s and 50s. Weak high
pressure provides the region with dry and slightly warmer
conditions for Thursday, before another widespread rain event
arrives Friday into Saturday, along with cooler temperatures,
which could result in some high elevation snow showers on
Saturday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 357 AM EDT Wednesday...Water vapor shows potent s/w energy
and associated ribbon of deeper moisture that produce a period
of rain showers last night quickly advancing into eastern New
England. Meanwhile, strong subsidence/drying aloft is present
across our cwa, but plenty of moisture trapped below inversion
is resulting in lots of clouds. This moisture combined with
upslope flow under moderate 925mb to 850mb caa will produce
plenty of clouds across our fa today. The best chances for a few
showers will be in favorable upslope regions of the northern
Dacks into the mountains of central/northern VT. I have
placed likely pops in these areas, but additional qpf will be
generally under 0.10 inch, given the lack of deep moisture.
Temps will be tricky, as we are crntly mild with readings in the
50s, but anticipate this values to drop toward sunrise, as caa
prevails. 925mb temps btwn 2-3c by 18z, while 850mb profiles
fall below 0c, supporting highs mainly in the 40s and l/m 50s.
These temps, combined with breezy southwest to west winds 15 to
30 mph will create a chill today. Would not be surprised summits
experience some snow shower activity today, especially as
Whiteface is down to 32f as of 4 AM.
Tonight into Thursday, weak 1014mb high pres and associated
ridging aloft builds into our cwa. This results in gradual
clearing especially downslope areas of the western
cpv...slv... and lower ct river valley. Temps will be tricky with
areas of clearing, but still some gradient, thinking upper
20s/lower 30s colder valleys to near 40f. Thursday will be dry
with temps rebounding back to normal values, supported by 925mb
temps of 8 to 10c.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
As of 333 AM EDT Wednesday...Brief ridging early Thursday night will
give way to our next low pressure system approaching from the west.
Increasing southwest flow ahead of the incoming upper trough will
usher deep moisture into the region. PWATs will exceed 1 inch across
much of the North Country by Friday afternoon, and this moisture
will interact with the slow moving cold front associated with the
upper trough. Rain will spread from southwest to northeast late
Thursday night into Friday morning, then continue much of the day
Friday before ending west to east late Friday night as best moisture
shifts east and a secondary cold frontal passes through. Rainfall
totals of a third up to once inch can be expected. Also, anticipate
gusty southeast winds to become gusty Friday afternoon as low
pressure develops across NY/PA/NJ. Lows Thursday night will be in
the upper 30s to lower 40s, with some mid 30s possible in the usual
cold locations. Friday temperatures will top out in the 50s across
the region, then dropping into the mid 30s to low 40s Friday night
behind the cold front.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 333 AM EDT Wednesday...Remaining cool and unsettled for the
weekend into early next week as a series of shortwave troughs and
frontal passages bring shots of cold air and precipitation. The
secondary cold front will cross the region on Saturday, bringing
cold air advection on brisk northwest winds. Showers will gradually
wind down through the day as moisture axis exits to the east.
Saturday night will be chilly but dry with lows in the lower to mid
30s, possibly dipping down into the 20s in the Adirondacks and
Northeast Kingdom. A second shortwave pushes through on Sunday,
bringing yet more showers and a reinforcing shot of cold air Sunday
night. Showers will transition to wrap-around upslope by Monday
morning, and with temperatures once again dropping back into the
30s, wouldn`t be surprised to see some snow in the mountains. Monday
should be mostly dry with the exception of some lingering showers in
the mountains. Uncertainty grows thereafter as longer-range guidance
still having a hard time agreeing on the handling of our next
shortwave. Have stayed close to a model blend for the end of the
forecast period. Temperatures will remain below seasonal normal
through the period.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Through 06Z Thursday...A mix of vfr/mvfr is crntly observed at
our taf sites, as steadier precip is now east of MPV terminal.
Expecting mvfr cigs at most sites with conditions decreasing to
ifr cigs at slk/mss by 08z. Expecting these ifr conditions to
prevail thru 12z at mss and 15z at slk, while mvfr continues at
most other sites. In addition, gusty southwest winds of 15 to 25
knots with some localized higher gusts will continue thru early
this morning, before shifting to the northwest btwn 15z-18z
today. These winds will produce vfr cigs at pbg and eventually
mss by sunset.
Outlook...
Thursday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Thursday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
Friday: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. Definite SHRA.
Friday Night: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. Likely SHRA.
Saturday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance SHRA.
Saturday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
Sunday: VFR. Chance SHRA.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Taber
NEAR TERM...Taber
SHORT TERM...Hastings
LONG TERM...Hastings
AVIATION...Taber
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