000
FXUS61 KBTV 260549
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
1249 AM EST Sun Jan 26 2020

.SYNOPSIS...
A slow-moving low pressure system will bring periods of
moderate rain to the North Country this evening into the
overnight hours, along with localized pockets of freezing rain
and sleet across central and eastern Vermont and far northern
New York. Locally gusty winds upwards of 40 mph will also be
possible through this evening along the western slopes of the
Green Mountains. As winds turn westerly on Sunday into Sunday
night, there will be potential for snow showers across the
higher terrain, with several inches likely across the
Adirondacks and northern Green Mountains. Quiet weather returns
by mid-week with seasonable late January conditions anticipated.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 1240 AM EST Sunday...Added in areas of fog for the
remainder of the overnight hours everywhere as surface
observations and spotters have reported reductions in
visibilities less than 1 mile at times. This will continue
through the overnight hours as winds will remain less than 5 mph
with lots of low level moisture thanks to the recent rainfall.
Scattered areas of light to moderate snow and/or rain/snow
showers continue to move through as shown on radar. Have kept
the Winter Weather Advisory going across eastern Vermont as
several webcams show slushy road surfaces along with a few
reports of icy roads across Windsor County from town highway
managers. Otherwise, no other changes needed to going forecast.

Previous Discussion...
Mid-level closed low remains centered over lower Michigan this
afternoon, with well-organized warm conveyor belt extending from
south of Long Island north-northwestward into e-central and
northern NY. This conveyor belt is immediate east of an occulded
front, and system has a negative tilt per GOES-16 IR imagery.
Seeing very strong sely 850mb winds associated with a low-level
jet, which is expected to increase to 60-70kt across
s-central/central VT by 00Z this evening. Have seen surface
gusts as high as 41kt at Mendon and 34kt at KRUT at 1816Z. As
warm conveyors shifts ewd and precipitation develops eastward
across VT through early evening, should see wind gusts settle
back into the 25-30kt range along the western slopes of the
Green Mountains as PBL stabilizes.

Localized areas of mixed wintry precipitation remain a concern
this evening into tonight. The 2-m temperatures remain right at
32F across St. Lawrence and portions of northern Franklin NY
counties, with intermittent periods of FZRA noted in area
observations. May also see periods of sleet, and then a trend
toward intermittent snow/sleet after midnight as winds shift
westerly and vertical temperature profiles cool during the pre-
dawn hours. Continued with the idea of up to 0.1" ice
accumulation across the St. Lawrence Valley, and the Winter
Weather Advisory continues there through 4am Sunday. Sfc
temperatures are quite marginal this evening 32-34F, so travel
concerns should be limited to untreated surfaces.

Same situation across central/eastern VT, where the Winter
Weather Advisory continues through 4AM Sunday. Most locations in
VT are already above freezing, but seeing a few obs right at
32F on the immediate eastern slopes of the Greens around Bethel
and Brookfield and adjacent points. Again, any icy travel
concerns will be limited and confined to untreated surfaces, but
temperatures remain close enough to freezing to warrant
continuing the Winter Weather Advisory. We`ll continue to
monitor trends there. Meanwhile, in the Champlain Valley,
downslope sely winds and low-level WAA will keep temps in the
mid-upper 30s. A few ice pellets may mix in at times, but
looking at no accumulation and mostly a rain event.

Precipitation will be moderate at times this evening as best PW
axis translates ewd across the North Country. In terms of
StormTotalRainfall amts, mostly occurring through 09Z tonight,
looking at 0.4 to 0.6" in most locations, but locally up to 0.9"
across the Green Mtns and the higher peaks of the Adirondacks.

Mid-level dry slot moves across late tonight through Sunday
morning. Should see low overcast lingering with passage of the
occlusion, but precipitation will be limited to isolated light
snow showers. However, next shortwave trough in NWLY flow and
deeper saturation bringing better chances for snow showers
Sunday afternoon through Sunday night. This will be especially
true across the northern Adirondacks and northern Green Mtns
with increased WNWLY upslope flow conditions. We have increased
PoPs to 70-90% Sunday night across the higher terrain. It
appears that 2-4" of snowfall will be possible late Sunday
afternooon through Sunday night, and locally around 5" for Jay
Peak and the western slopes of the Adirondacks. Highs on Sunday
generally in the low-mid 30s, with lows Sunday night in the
upper 20s to lower 30s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 334 PM EST Saturday...Upslope snow showers are expected to
continue across the western slopes of the Green and Adirondacks on
Monday with a series of low amplitude shortwaves traversing the
northwesterly flow aloft. Moisture will gradually wane throughout
the day on Monday and especially on Tuesday as drier air begins to
work south into the North Country. The tricky part to the forecast
will be for the potential of some blocked flow in the Champlain
Valley on Monday which may allow some of the snow showers to back
into western Addison and western Chittenden but the main focus will
continue to be on the western slopes. Our snow ratios on Monday will
not be on the fluffy side as the cold air advection is weak 850 mb
temps only dropping to about -10 degrees C by Tuesday morning. The
ratios will trend from 12:1 Monday morning to about 18:1 by Tuesday
morning which should allow for an additional 2-4 inches of snow
along the western slopes with little to none in the deeper valleys.
Temperatures on Monday will also be on the warm side with many
locations at or above freezing expect for elevations above 2000 ft
which will also inhibit snow accumulations in the deeper valleys.
Tuesday will be much cooler as a strong push of cooler air dives
south with highs climbing into the mid to upper 20s.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 334 PM EST Saturday...Strong surface high pressure will build
south across the North Country on Wednesday and bring clearing skies
and light and variable winds. This high pressure system will remain
entrenched across the region through the first half of Saturday and
will help usher in the return of near normal high temperatures.
Lows, on the other hand, will likely be below normal as we have some
nice radiational cooling nights ahead underneath the 1025+ mb high.
Lows will be the coldest Wednesday night as temps drop to the single
digits above and below zero and will slowly moderate as we head
toward the end of the work week. The next chance of precipitation
doesn`t occur until the upcoming weekend where there is a lot of
uncertainty with the track of a low tracking up the east coast.
There is the potential for a good storm system but also the
potential this low tracks well off to our east with no impacts. Stay
tuned in the coming days for updates regarding this system.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Through 06Z Monday...Mainly MVFR/IFR through the TAF period.
Satellite imagery and surface observations show lots of low
level clouds across the airspace with ceilings ranging between
200-1500ft, with a few locations reporting ceilings ~3000ft.
Ceilings and visibilities should remain generally IFR/LIFR
through the overnight hours as areas of fog have begun to
develop, even with thick cloud cover, and winds remain light and
variable. A few scattered rain and/or snow showers may impact
the TAF sites for the next few hours, but radar shows these
winding down with minimal precipitation through 18z.
Visibilities reductions will be generally between 2-5 miles in
areas of fog and precipitation. Improvement in aviation
conditions are likely tomorrow morning as winds increase out of
the south/southwest between 5-10 kt. Ceilings will lift to
MVFR/VFR after 14z. This will be short lived as rain and/or snow
showers spread across the airspace after 18z, and conditions
drop once again into MVFR/IFR categories.

Outlook...

Monday: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. Chance SHSN, Chance SHRA.
Monday Night: Mainly MVFR, with local VFR possible. Chance SHSN.
Tuesday: Mainly MVFR, with local VFR possible. Slight chance
SHSN.
Tuesday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Thursday: VFR. NO SIG WX.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...Winter Weather Advisory until 4 AM EST early this morning for
     VTZ003-004-006>008-010-012-018-019.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Banacos
NEAR TERM...Banacos/LaRocca
SHORT TERM...Clay
LONG TERM...Clay
AVIATION...LaRocca