209
FXUS61 KBTV 170012
AFDBTV
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
712 PM EST Mon Feb 16 2026
.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
As of 145 PM EST Monday...
A bit of a southward shift in model guidance with the Wednesday
system means that areas across our northern zones will see less
precipitation.
&&
.KEY MESSAGES...
As of 145 PM EST Monday...
1. Chance for light snow showers tonight into Tuesday, with
possible light drizzle or freezing drizzle.
2. Some snow will likely impact southern portions of the region
on Wednesday and Wednesday night. Northward extent of this
precipitation remains highly uncertain.
3. Seasonable late week and weekend conditions expected with
additional chances of precipitation.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
As of 145 PM EST Monday...
KEY MESSAGE 1: Light snow will move into our area from west to
east overnight, beginning around 10 pm in northern New York and
after midnight in Vermont. This warm front is lifting into our
area, and facing some dry air which is in place this afternoon
across our area. Temperatures overnight will dip into the lower
20s east of the Greens, with upper 20s to lower 30s across the
rest of our area. There is potential for rain or light freezing
drizzle to mix with the light snow towards early Tuesday
morning. QPF with this warm front is expected to be light,
generally a tenth of an inch or less of liquid equivalent. A
half an inch or less of snowfall is expected. Only a hundredth
of an inch or a glaze of ice is anticipated with better chances
across the northern Adirondacks. By Tuesday afternoon high
temperatures will warm into the mid to upper 30s areawide. Winds
will be light during the day Tuesday, so some fog over snow
will be possible as dewpoints also rise above freezing.
KEY MESSAGE 2: A powerful low pressure system over the northern
Plains will occlude and stall out, but significant
frontogenesis associated with the storm will support a weaker
wave of low pressure to develop over the southern Great Lakes
region and help produce a frontal zone of moderate to heavy
precipitation. Confluent upper level flow out ahead of this wave
due to a low pressure area lingering near northern Maine will
keep precipitation from expanding northeastward as typically the
case. Rather, a band of snow will have a sharp northward
cutoff, which model consensus shows will be positioned somewhere
in the vicinity of northern New York and northern Vermont.
North of the frontal zone, the air will be very dry due to the
anticyclonic flow of the incoming ridge behind the system near
Maine. Relatedly, various ensemble model guidance shows a sharp
gradient in precipitation chances; as an example, the latest run
of the AIGEFS shows only an 11% chance of measurable
precipitation in Burlington, 38% chance in Middlebury, and 76%
chance in Rutland.
As such, it remains a highly difficult forecast for much of the
northeastern US for Wednesday into Wednesday night. The
relatively narrow frontal zone, with marginally cold
temperatures for snow versus rain, will promote a fairly long
duration of precipitation including a narrow band of impactful
wet snowfall. Thermal profiles look fairly isothermal to
preclude much mixed precipitation, and so we expect a wet snow
or possibly mix of rain and snow especially with a farther north
storm track. The latest deterministic model guidance generally
has shifted a touch southward however, showing little impact for
our region. This scenario would have snow spreading into far
southern portions of northern New York and Vermont, make little
northward progress during the daytime hours, and then gradually
pull away Wednesday night. The resulting snowfall amounts would
be very light, with maybe a narrow zone in our southern areas of
only around 1" of new snow, possibly up to 2" in south central
Vermont. Because of the duration/orientation of precipitation
along the front, any northward shift will result in moderate
snowfall amounts, and the current snowfall totals reflect this
potential with storm totals near 4" in a swath over southern
portions of the Adirondacks and southern Vermont. Ultimately,
southernmost areas still look most definitively on track for
fresh snow, and we`ll monitor trends in the position of the
front that will determine the actual snowfall details.
Following the snow/cloudy conditions for Wednesday, Thursday
looks like a very quiet weather day; a large ridge of high
pressure aloft and at the surface will support light winds and
seasonable temperatures.
KEY MESSAGE 3: Temperatures will be near normal by the end of
the week into the weekend but still cold enough to support some
winter precipitation through wet-bulbing and dynamical cooling
processes. Highs will be near 30, with overnight lows in the
teens; slightly warmer temperatures in southern Vermont. Late
Friday into Saturday, an upper low across the Great Lakes will
occlude with a double barrel surface coastal low developing
across the Mid-Atlanic. There is some decent mid to upper level
forcing, with low to mid level frontogenesis from the Champlain
Valley south into southern Vermont. The limiting factor with
this system is the distance between the parent upper low in the
Great Lakes and the coastal low which will lead to considerable
stretching and thinning of the moisture field over the region.
The coastal low does not appear to deepen much as it tracks
northeast into the Canadian Maritimes, but some wrap around
moisture could keep snow showers in Vermont into midday
Saturday. Temperatures and dynamical cooling processes should
keep any precipitation as all snow for the region. Current NBM
probabilities depict a 50-70% chance of 2 inches of snow across
central and southern Vermont and the Adirondacks; 40-50% across
northern Vermont, and a 40-60% chance of seeing 4 or more inches
of snow across central and southern Vermont. Model guidance is
also beginning to key in on a potentially impactful coastal
system Sunday into Monday. Overall ensemble member timing and
track guidance still varies widely, but there are now a few
ensemble members that draw a coastal system near Benchmark.
Confidence is low right now, but this will be something to
monitor over the next several days.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Through 00Z Wednesday...VFR conditions continue for the next few
hours until precipitation moves in out of Canada. Radar imagery
shows snow showers moving towards northern New York and Vermont
out of southern Canada in the vicinity of the Great Lakes.
MSS will see showers first around 03Z with showers and MVFR
conditions spreading eastward by 06Z. Given temperatures right
around freezing, today`s snowmelt will likely not refreeze
overnight becoming a source for some fog/mist through the day.
IFR conditions become increasingly likely 06-12Z as CIGs lower
and in areas of snow showers. Since the quasi-stationary
boundary will remain just south of the Adirondacks, this is a
prime pattern for fog/drizzle after 12Z. Model soundings note
some potential for drizzle, so SCT002-004 were added to account
for lower CIG potential. Otherwise, widespread IFR is probable
especially with slightly warming temperatures expected for the
daytime hours resulting in more snowmelt to become a source for
lower CIGs/VIS. Some improvement may occur late in the period as
a southwesterly wind component picks up at MSS after 21Z.
Outlook...
Tuesday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Slight
chance FZDZ.
Wednesday: VFR. Chance SN.
Wednesday Night: VFR. Chance SN, Slight chance FZRA.
Thursday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Thursday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Friday: VFR. Chance SN.
Friday Night: VFR. Likely SN.
Saturday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance SN.
&&
.EQUIPMENT...
The KMPV AWOS has suffered a communications failure. The issue
has been diagnosed, but there is currently no estimated time of
return to service. Terminal Aerodrome Forecasts will continue,
but amendments to those forecasts will be suspended.
NOAA Weather Radio station WXM-44, transmitting from Mt.
Ascutney, Vermont, on frequency 162.475 MHz is non- operational
at this time. NWS technicians have diagnosed the problem, but
repairs will likely not be able to occur for quite some time due
to circumstances beyond our control. Therefore, the time of
return to service is currently unknown. The following NOAA
Weather Radio transmitters may be able to provide service during
this outage: WWG 50 from Burke Mtn, VT at 162.425 MHz and WNG
546 from Hanover, NH at 162.525 MHz.
The Colchester Reef meteorological station is out of service.
This site is not serviced by the NWS and there isn`t an
estimated return to service at present. Please contact us if you
observe winds significantly deviating from the recreational
forecast.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.
&&
$$
WHAT HAS CHANGED...Neiles
DISCUSSION...Kutikoff/Danzig/Neiles
AVIATION...Boyd
EQUIPMENT...NWS BTV
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