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  Monday October 22, 2018

 

NWS Area Forecast Discussion


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FXUS61 KBTV 211742
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
142 PM EDT Sun Oct 21 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
Northwest flow aloft will bring clouds, colder temperatures,
and snow showers to the North Country today. Unsettled weather
is expected for the first half of next week with lake effect
showers moving into the area on Monday followed by a trough of
low pressure Tuesday into Wednesday that will bring more
widespread showers to the region. Below normal temperatures will
continue through much of next week as well.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 1154 AM EDT Sunday...Classic northwest flow aloft has led
to upslope precipitation across the northern Adirondacks and
the northern half of Vermont. Have updated the forecast from
flurries to scattered to numerous snow showers over this area
with some locations along the spine of the northern Greens
getting a dusting to an inch. Clouds continue to persist in the
northwest flow and this is holding down temperatures so have
also lowered maximum temperatures today down a few degrees to
generally remain in the 30s this afternoon. And with the cold
air aloft any precipitation will be in the form of snow.

Previous Discussion...
High pressure ridges into the area today and mainly dry
conditions are expected for today and tonight. Winds will be a
bit gusty out of the Northwest, though we have limited low level
moisture so don`t expect too much in the way of showers.
Tonight will be cold, though clouds will keep temperatures from
radiating out to their full potential, as well as some gradient
winds. Have mentioned frost in the grids regardless. If models
trend more clear and calm with the forecast for tonight, we
could need a frost or freeze headline for the Champlain valley
Sunday night. On Monday, aforementioned surface high will slide
eastward and a weak low pressure system will approach from the
Northern Great Lakes. Flow will turn more southwesterly between
these two features, and some light lake effect snow showers are
expected in the Southern St Lawrence Valley and Northern
Adirondacks. Temperatures remain cold with highs remaining in
the 40s and increasing cloudiness across the area.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 230 AM EDT Sunday...At the onset of this period, SW flow
aloft over eastern Great Lakes will allow for some lake effect
rain showers which will add some moisture to the atmosphere and
possibly bring some rain showers into portions of northern NY
ahead of next strong shortwave.

Another strong NW shortwave and associates surface low and cold
front drop across the Great Lakes and rotates across New
England/NY Tuesday-Tuesday evening. Somewhat moisture starved
but decent lapse rates with cold pool aloft thus expect
scattered showers with temps cold enough aloft for a mountain
snow shower/two late Tues-Tues ngt.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 230 AM EDT Sunday...As mentioned above front has largely
passed area by Tuesday night but still some instability and some
deeper moisture being wrapped around 700mb low across eastern
Quebec/ME for some valley rain/mountain snow showers.

Deep cyclonic flow persists Wednesday between upper trough axis
and surface low east and upper/surface ridge across Northern
Central CONUS thus favorable upslope flow will bring best shot
of mountain snow/rain showers.

There is a block in the North Atlantic not allowing the upper
trough to shift east anytime soon but by Thursday and into the
weekend it slides just enough away to allow slight a slightly
more wnw upper flow and surface high to dominate. Pretty quiet
for this period.

It will be a cool period with daytime highs in the L-M40s
Wed/Thu/Fri, some 30s in cold spots, moderating with time by the
weekend. Overnight lows in the 30s Tues ngt falling into the
20s/some teens Wed/Thu nights and modifying back into 20s/30s
by Friday night-Saturday morning.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Through 18Z Monday...Still quite a bit of cloud cover over the
area with northwest flow aloft. Ceilings are generally 3000-5000
feet and will generally remain in this range through the period.
There have been scattered to numerous snow showers...but
visibilities will remain in the VFR category. The snow showers
will end by 00z with no precipitation expected for the remainder
of the period. Gusty west to northwest winds will continue
through 00z with gusts in the 20 to 25 knot range...but then
taper off into the 5 to 10 knot range by about 06z. Eventually
the winds will become more southwest and south after 14z...but
at speeds generally under 10 knots.

Outlook...

Monday Night: VFR. Chance SHSN, Slight chance SHRA.
Tuesday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Likely SHRA.
Tuesday Night: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. Chance SHRA,
Chance SHSN.
Wednesday: Mainly MVFR, with local VFR possible. Chance SHRA,
Chance SHSN.
Wednesday Night: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. Slight
chance SHSN.
Thursday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Slight chance
SHRA, Slight chance SHSN.
Thursday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHSN.
Friday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Slight chance SHRA,
Slight chance SHSN.

&&

.MARINE...
A Lake Wind Advisory continues today with northwest winds at 15
to 25 knots and gusts to 30 knots. Waves will continue in the 2
to 4 foot range resulting in choppy conditions, especially on
the east side of the lake.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Evenson
NEAR TERM...Evenson/Neiles
SHORT TERM...SLW
LONG TERM...SLW
AVIATION...Evenson
MARINE...Evenson



 
 
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