000
FXUS61 KBTV 232334
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
734 PM EDT Tue Apr 23 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Dry weather will continue this evening before rain moves back into
the region tonight and Wednesday ahead of a strong cold front.
Temperatures will drop throughout the day on Wednesday, and a brief
period of snow is possible as precipitation tapers off. Only minor
accumulations of snow are expected given a period of warm
temperatures ahead of the falling snow. After one cool day on
Thursday, conditions will begin to warm and become above normal for
the new work week. Another interval of sharp drying takes place
Thursday and Friday. Rain chances will return later Saturday into
early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 657 PM EDT Tuesday...Dry surface air is winning out
against radar returns with virga occurring over northern New
York; not too surprising given the 14C dew point depression. As
a result, onset of shower chances were delayed by about 1-3 hrs
until additional areas of forcing move into St Lawrence County.
Still, light rain expected overnight with amounts around 0.25".
Otherwise, temperatures were increased marginally based on
latest observation trends. Clouds may keep temperatures warmer
than forecast for the Champlain Valley by a few degrees.
Elsewhere, temperatures are on track with southerly breezes
generally becoming light.

Previous Discussion...Dry conditions persist across the region
this afternoon. Temperatures have warmed well into the 60s under
bright sunshine and ample mixing. Mixing has been deeper than
anticipated, which has also allowed dewpoints to lower into the
low/mid 20s to around 30F. The result is relative humidity
values in the 20 to 30% range in many spots. The deep mixing has
also made for gusty south winds, particularly in the Champlain
Valley and the northern slopes of the Adirondacks into the St
Lawrence Valley, where gusts of 30-35 mph have been recorded.
These conditions will continue into the late afternoon/early
evening, though moisture will gradually be increasing ahead of
our next system. Winds will abate as the sunsets, though will
still remain gusty to 20-25 mph or so. See the Fire Weather
section below or our Special Weather Statement issued earlier
today for additional details.

After today`s fire weather concerns, the focus turns toward a strong
cold front which will cross the region on Wednesday. Showers
associated with moisture streaming out ahead of this front are
already approaching our region from the west, and will overspread
the region overnight tonight. It will take a little while for lower
levels to saturate, so radar may look a little more threatening than
what is actually occurring early in the evening. However, expect
just about everyone to get in on the rain by daybreak Wednesday,
with the bulk falling from the Champlain Valley westward.
Temperatures will fall into the 40s overnight, with some upper 30s
sneaking into the St Lawrence Valley as the front starts to move
into the region.

The front will push through quickly during the day on Wednesday,
ushering in a cold and dry airmass. Temperatures will likely fall
quite sharply as the front moves through, perhaps as much as 5-10
degrees in just an hour or two. Hence rain will at least mix with
snow as temperatures plummet into the mid/upper 30s, with higher
elevations likely seeing at least a brief period of all snow. Ground
surfaces will be warm, so while snow could come down hard enough to
accumulate briefly, it will likely quickly melt, especially paved
surfaces. Drier air will rapidly follow the frontal passage, which
quickly ending precipitation from west to east as temperatures cool.
So any period of snow should be fairly short-lived as well, as
precipitation should end by sunset or so. So the period of snow or
rain/snow mix will be short, and this with warm surface temperatures
will keep any accumulation that does occur minimal, with most spots
seeing only a half inch or less, if they get any real accumulation
at all. Winds will become gusty out of the northwest behind the
front as well, and could see some gusts of 30+ mph with or just
behind the front.

Skies will clear quickly Wednesday evening as much drier air works
into the region. Dewpoints will drop into the teens and even single
digits overnight, and winds will become light as ridging builds into
the region. So looking at a good radiational cooling night, with
lows anticipated to range from the upper teens in the Adirondacks
and Northeast Kingdom to the mid 20s in the Champlain and St
Lawrence Valleys.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
As of 328 PM EDT Tuesday...Another seasonably cool day can be
expected Thursday, with highs only in the upper 40s to around 50.
Despite the cold temperatures however, we`ll see plenty of sun as
the center of a surface anticyclone shifts nearer. Winds will be
generally 5-10 mph from the northwest, becoming light and variable
overnight once the center of the high crests overhead. Have hedged
towards the lower side of guidance for overnight lows for Thursday
night with light winds and clear skies...ideal radiational cooling
conditions. Lows will be in the 20s for most of the area, which is a
good 10 degrees below normal values for this time of year. Given
that the growing season has not yet begun anywhere in our forecast
area, no frost/freeze headlines needed, but early gardeners
with vulnerable outdoor plants should take precautions to
protect against a potential frost/freeze Thursday night.
Temperatures are forecast to dip into the low to mid 20s for the
northern Adirondacks and eastern Vermont, and drop to the upper
20s to around 30 in the valleys.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 328 PM EDT Tuesday...Friday will be a beautiful day with
noticeably warmer temperatures and sunny skies. Temperatures will
start off quite chilly in the morning, but will quickly climb into
the 50s/low 60s for afternoon highs. Minimum relative humidities
will drop to around 30 to 40 percent by Friday afternoon, but light
winds will mitigate any fire weather concerns.

The warming trend will continue into the weekend as return southerly
flow develops and increases. At this point, Saturday morning looks
dry with an upper-level ridge cresting overhead. Southerly winds
will begin to increase during the day Saturday along with increasing
cloud cover as the ridge shifts east and shortwave energy
approaches from the west. Expect chances for showers to increase
as we head into the evening as the ridge flattens and upper-
level shortwaves roll overtop the ridge. It`s too early to get
too specific with the timing of the shortwaves and the
associated rainfall going into early next week, but at least
some showers can be expected Sunday through Wednesday. Have
stayed close to NBM for precipitation forecast. Given the
showery conditions early next week, fire weather concerns are
low from Sunday onward. As temperatures climb into the low 70s
early next week, will see the development of some instability
during the afternoons, and can`t rule out some isolated rumbles
of thunder.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Through 00Z Thursday...Conditions are expected to deteriorate
overnight and tonight as a strong cold front moves through the
region. Clouds are currently overspreading from west to east,
and VFR conditions to start will become MVFR as ceilings
gradually lower by around 02-06Z Wednesday for New York sites,
then 06-12Z for others. In addition to ceilings 1000-3000 feet
above ground level, rain showers will accompany this cold front,
reducing visibilities at times to 5-6 miles before turning to
rain/snow mix or even snow briefly, which could be accompanied
by 3-4 miles vis or lower. IFR ceilings and vis are most likely
at SLK and MSS, but could occur sporadically at several sites
from 07-18Z Wednesday, mainly in snow. Gusty winds will begin to
decrease over the next few hours at most sites, turning with the
frontal passage. Starting south/southwesterly, winds will turn
northwesterly throughout the night/tomorrow morning, depending
on the site. Winds will begin to gust again 12-17Z Wednesday to
15-25 knots, especially as precipitation comes to an end later
in the day.

Outlook...

Wednesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Thursday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Thursday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Friday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Friday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Saturday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
Saturday Night: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. Likely
SHRA.
Sunday: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Chance SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
As of 343 AM EDT Tuesday...Dry weather will continue through
this afternoon, with relative humidity values improving
gradually toward evening. Abundant sunshine has warmed us well
into 60s with large dewpoint depressions, and relative humidity
values are generally 25 to 30 percent in most areas, with the
exception of the southern St Lawrence Valley where moisture is
increasing ahead of our next system. Winds have been gusty out
of the south, with gusts of 30 to 35 being reported in portions
of the Champlain Valley and the northern slopes of the
Adirondacks into the St Lawrence Valley. We have hit red flag
conditions in many spots this afternoon based on our local
criteria (25+ mph winds and RH below 30%), and while conditions
will gradually improve this evening, the Special Weather
Statement for heightened fire weather concerns remains valid for
much of the region through 8 pm. Please visit or contact your
local forestry or environmental protection services for
additional information. Remember, the state of New York has a
burn ban in place through May 14th.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Hastings
NEAR TERM...Boyd/Hastings
SHORT TERM...Duell
LONG TERM...Duell
AVIATION...Storm
FIRE WEATHER...Hastings