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  Friday July 19, 2019

 

NWS Area Forecast Discussion


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000
FXUS61 KBTV 190919
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Burlington VT
519 AM EDT Fri Jul 19 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
Heat advisories are in effect for today and Saturday due to hot
and humid conditions. Temperatures will warm into the upper 80s
to mid 90s today and Saturday with nighttime temperatures only
dropping into the the upper 60s to mid 70s. Isolated to
scattered thunderstorms may be possible each day this weekend.
More seasonable weather returns by early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 519 AM EDT Friday...Have added Windsor county to the heat
advisory for today...primarily for the Lower Connecticut River
valley. Otherwise, heat headlines remain in effect for today and
Saturday as temperatures are expected to warm into the upper 80s to
low 90s and low to mid 90s Saturday with dewpoints in the upper 60s
to low 70s. Currently some stubborn low clouds have managed to work
their way into much of central/eastern VT and into the southern
Adirondacks. These clouds will linger through the morning hours
before mixing out toward midday. While initially warming will be
slow, nighttime temperatures have only dropped into the low 60s to
low 70s which should allow up to warm-up nicely once heating gets
going. Chances for precipitation today remain minimal with no real
forcing available and increasing heights aloft. Have maintained just
a slight chance for thunderstorms primarily across the high terrain
for the late afternoon/evening hours as it will take a while for cap
to break down. Otherwise, it will be a dry and stiflingly warm day.
Lows overnight will remain warm in the upper 60s to mid 70s. Winds
today will gradually pick up out the south/southwest between 5-10
mph with gusts up to 15-20 mph possible in the afternoon.

Tomorrow will see a wash, rise, repeat with temperatures a few
degrees warming than today. Daytime relatively humidity values will
be similar in the upper 60s to low 70s with heat indices warming
into the upper 90s to low 100s. This will be the warmest day of the
period so be sure to take extra precaution while outside. There
remains a chance for precipitation on Saturday as shortwave energy
passes overhead. The best chances for showers will be late Saturday
afternoon/evening however there still remains some uncertainty in
the placement of this convection between NAM/GFS/Euro. We`ll
continue to monitor the potential for these storms as any storms
that do develop will have the potential to be strong/severe.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 506 AM EDT Friday...Lots of uncertainty for the latter half of
the weekend, mainly due to significant differences in the models`
timing of a cold frontal passage. This impacts both the temperature
and precipitation forecasts.

Convection could be ongoing Saturday evening, particularly over
northern areas, as some of the guidance appears to bring a decaying
MCS around the ridge and into our region early in the overnight. If
this indeed occurs, it should exit by midnight or so, with lingering
convection dying off late. It`ll be another muggy night with lows in
the upper 60s to mid 70s.

Uncertainty only increases heading into Sunday given significant
timing differences in cold frontal passage. The 19/00z GFS shows the
front moving through during the late morning/early afternoon hours
on Sunday, missing the peak heating/instability portion of the day.
Hence, convection develops mainly over central and southern portions
of our region. Temperatures would rise back into the 90s in southern
VT, while other areas remain in the 80s behind the front. However,
the 19/00z NAM has a much slower frontal passage, bringing it
through Sunday night. Convection would occur along the international
border, particularly late in the day as the front draws near.
Temperatures would approach and/or exceed 90 once again in many
locations. Sunday night could conceivably be another muggy one if
the NAM holds true, or we may start to see some relief, especially
in the north, if the GFS solution occurs. Given the differences,
have stayed close to a model blend for temperatures and PoPs. The
NAM solution is more favorable for strong to severe storms,
particularly from the Adirondacks westward. Additional heat-related
headlines may be needed as well. Subsequent shifts will need to
monitor trends and make adjustments as models converge on a
particular scenario.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 506 AM EDT Friday...The front should finally move south of our
region by Monday morning, though guidance is indicating it may hang
up across southern New England with potential waves riding along it.
So while drier and cooler air will move into the North Country, rain
chances continue into the middle of the week, especially in
southeastern areas, until the upper trough finally kicks the front
eastward. High pressure will finally take hold by late week.
Temperatures will be near seasonal normals through the period.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Through 06Z Saturday...VFR through the TAF period under mostly
clear skies. Some scattered/broken 2500-3500ft ceilings may be
possible across southern VT but should dissipate by morning.
Decaying storms across southern Quebec will bring chance for
showers/TS across northern VT tomorrow morning (have mentioned
VCSH at KMPV), elsewhere chances for an isolated TS during the
afternoon hours are possible but areal coverage will be limited
so have omitted VCSH/VCTS from TAF at this time. Winds through
the period will be generally light out of the south around 5 kts
increasing to 5-10 kt with gusts up to 20 kt possible in the
afternoon especially in CPV. Winds will gradually turn out of
the SE between 5-10 kt towards 22z.

Outlook...

Saturday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA.
Saturday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight
chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA.
Sunday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance SHRA, Chance
TSRA.
Sunday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA.
Monday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Monday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...Heat Advisory from noon to 8 PM EDT Saturday for VTZ003-004-
     006>008-010-016>019.
     Heat Advisory from noon today to 8 PM EDT Saturday for VTZ001-
     002-005-009-011-012.
NY...Heat Advisory from noon to 8 PM EDT Saturday for NYZ029>031-
     034.
     Heat Advisory from noon today to 8 PM EDT Saturday for
     NYZ026>028-035-087.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LaRocca
NEAR TERM...LaRocca
SHORT TERM...Hastings
LONG TERM...Hastings
AVIATION...LaRocca



 
 
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