385
FXUS61 KBTV 062347
AFDBTV
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
647 PM EST Fri Feb 6 2026
.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
As of 142 PM EST Friday...
Snowfall amounts have been increased slightly. Extreme cold warnings
and Cold Weather Advisories remain in place for all of Vermont and
northern New York for Saturday and Sunday.
&&
.KEY MESSAGES...
As of 142 PM EST Friday...
1. Convective snow showers move in tonight and continue into
Saturday. Hazardous travel conditions are expected with snow
accumulations generally between 2 and 4 inches.
2. Dangerously cold wind chills of 20 to 40 degrees below zero
expected over the weekend.
3. No significant impacts are expected through much of next
week, with temperatures moderating closer to normal and chances for
snow showers.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
As of 142 PM EST Friday...
KEY MESSAGE 1: An arctic cold front is rapidly approaching northern New
York from the west with snow showers expected across the St.
Lawrence Valley by 8 PM. These snow showers will spread westward
during the evening and overnight hours and continue into the early
afternoon across portions of Vermont. Models continue to show strong
low level convergence and frontogenesis associated with the arctic
cold front due in large part to an impressive thermal gradient. The
latest HREF data is showing snowfall rates between 0.5" and 0.75"
per hour between 6 AM and 10 AM across Vermont as the front shifts
eastward. Given the increasing snowfall rates, we made the decision
to bump up snowfall totals up to 2-4 inches for most locations with
3 to 5 inches possible across the western slopes of the Green
Mountains including Jay Peak, Mt. Mansfield, and Killington. This
snow will be light and fluffy with snow ratios likely averaging out
in the 20:1 to 25:1 range so impacts overall should be limited to
those who have to travel while snow is ongoing. Following the
frontal passage, winds will quickly shift to the west/northwest and
gust between 20 and 30 mph. This will help blow this new snowfall
around and cause decreased visibility periodically throughout the
day on Saturday.
KEY MESSAGE 2: Bitterly cold air will quickly filter into the region
Saturday morning/afternoon in the wake of the arctic cold front. The
"high" temperature on Saturday will likely be observed between 6 and
8 AM for many locations with temperatures plummeting throughout the
day. As these temperatures plummet, winds will rapidly increase
leading to wind chill values dropping to -20 or colder early in the
day on Saturday across northern New York and by early evening in
Vermont. Temperatures will continue to fall rapidly through the
evening and overnight hours as we head into Sunday morning with lows
bottoming out below zero everywhere. The latest MOS guidance has
taken temperatures down even further than before with parts of the
Adirondacks dropping to 20 degrees below zero. With the changes to
low temperatures, wind chills have been dropped between 1-3 degrees
across the North Country but the impacts remain the same: frostbite
and hypothermia will be a real concern this weekend. Those with
outdoor plans should plan to dress in layers and cover as much
exposed skin as possible to prevent frostbite and/or hypothermia.
Sunday night will also be very cold with low temperatures below zero
everywhere. However, winds will be much weaker but wind chills in
the -10 to 20 degree range look probable.
KEY MESSAGE 3: A relatively cold and dry start to next week is expected
across the region as surface high pressure remains across the
region. Temperatures look to moderate as the week progresses, with
daytime highs nearing seasonal normals towards the end of the
forecast period, in contrast to the bitter cold this weekend. Broad
cyclonic flow aloft will allow for some snow showers chances
throughout the week, especially across the higher terrain.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Through 00Z Sunday...Convective snow showers are arriving this
evening across northern New York and will spread into Vermont
over the next several hours, continuing into Saturday. Hazardous
travel conditions are expected with snow accumulations
generally between 2 and 4 inches. Site KMSS is already reporting
visibilities in snow showers between 1 and 3 miles with ceilings
around 1500-2000 feet above ground level. This is slightly
faster than previously forecast, and we anticipate slightly
earlier arrival times for other sites as well since snow is just
about arriving at KSLK and we expect them to have IFR vis
shortly as well. Snow will continue progressing eastward,
arriving at KPBG and KBTV by around 02Z-03Z Saturday, then the
rest of Vermont by around 04Z.
Visibilities should drop fairly quickly, based on what`s been
observed, and vis below 3 miles will be widespread and steady by
about 04Z-06Z, if not sooner. With the snow, we also anticipate
ceilings to lower to MVFR levels at all sites around the same
time the snow arrives. Southerly winds this evening will turn
northwesterly later tonight and tomorrow, gusting 10-25 knots
beginning around 12Z-18Z Saturday and lasting through the end of
the 24 hour TAF period. IFR visibilities and MVFR ceilings look
to persist through around 15Z-18Z when snow comes to an end and
is replaced by blowing snow in the gusty winds with
visibilities generally 3+ miles. Greatest uncertainty involves
the timing of when MVFR ceilings lift to VFR levels as NW flow
could keep low cigs around longer than models are indicating.
Outlook...
Saturday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Sunday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Sunday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Monday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Monday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight
chance SN.
Wednesday: Mainly MVFR, with areas IFR possible. Chance SN.
&&
.EQUIPMENT...
NOAA Weather Radio station WXM-44, transmitting from Mt.
Ascutney, Vermont, on frequency 162.475 MHz is non- operational
at this time. NWS technicians have diagnosed the problem, but
repairs will likely not be able to occur for quite some time due
to circumstances beyond our control. Therefore, the time of
return to service is currently unknown. The following NOAA
Weather Radio transmitters may be able to provide service during
this outage: WWG 50 from Burke Mtn, VT at 162.425 MHz and WNG
546 from Hanover, NH at 162.525 MHz.
The Colchester Reef meteorological station is out of service.
This site is not serviced by the NWS and there isn`t an
estimated return to service at present. Please contact us if
you observe winds significantly deviating from the recreational
forecast.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...Cold Weather Advisory from 6 PM Saturday to 1 PM EST Sunday
for VTZ001>011-016>021.
NY...Extreme Cold Warning from 7 AM Saturday to 1 PM EST Sunday for
NYZ026-027-029>031-034-087.
Cold Weather Advisory from 6 PM Saturday to 1 PM EST Sunday
for NYZ028-035.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Clay/Kremer
AVIATION...Storm
EQUIPMENT...NWS BTV
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