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  Thursday July 19, 2018

 

NWS Area Forecast Discussion


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000
FXUS61 KBTV 191100
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
700 AM EDT Thu Jul 19 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure continues across the North Country today with
clear skies and light winds. After a cool start with some patchy
fog temperatures will warm quickly into the mid 70s to lower 80s
by this afternoon. Another cool night is anticipated tonight,
followed by temperatures warming back into the 80s to near 90
for Friday and Saturday. A large scale pattern change occurs on
Sunday into next week, with increase chances for several rounds
of showers and embedded thunderstorms.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 651 AM EDT Thursday...Several record lows temps either
tied or broken this morning across our cwa. This includes a 35
at slk with previous record of 38 set back in 1956 and 2000.
Also, a record at least tied at mpv of 44 and broken at our 1v4
asos site with a low of 46 previous record was 48 set back in
2000. after a cool start temps will warm quickly this morning
with full sunshine and dry air. Have tried to capture rate of
temp rise this morning and decreased min aftn rh humidity values
by 2 to 5% with this update. Rest of fcst in good shape.

1020mb high pres near Rochester New York will continue to keep
fa dry with plenty of sunshine today. Progged 925mb to 850mb
temps warm 1 to 3 degrees which support highs in the mid 70s to
lower 80s most locations. With sfc high pres directly overhead,
expect mainly light and variable trrn driven winds today btwn
3-7 mph. Tonight...high pres continues with slightly warmer
thermal profiles. Still anticipating a sharp low level thermal
inversion to develop with coolest readings in the
deeper/protected valleys. Lows generally in the l40s slk/nek to
m/u 50s slv/cpv. Given another day removed from precip, areal
coverage of fog and duration will be limited, with highest
probably across central/eastern VT valleys btwn 09-11z. On
Friday...sfc to 850mb southerly flow develops along with modest
low level waa ahead of developing trof across the central CONUS.
This advection will help warm 850mb temps btwn 17-18c, while
progged 925mb temps range btwn 23-24c. These low level thermal
profiles, combined with dry airmass and excellent mixing support
highs well into the 80s to lower 90s in some of the warmer
valley locations on Friday. Have trended toward the warmer ECE
for anticipated high temps on Friday. Interesting the ECE
guidance shows a 30 to 40 degree spread btwn low temps Friday
morning and expected high temps on Friday aftn, indicating just
how dry the atmosphere is across our cwa.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 322 AM EDT Thursday...A pattern change will be
underway at the end of the week as an upper low rotates down into
the Great Lakes/Upper Midwest states. Surface high pressure will
slide away to the east with low pressure spinning over the southern
Great Lakes. Meanwhile, a secondary low is progged to develop along
the Mid Atlantic coast and shift northward on Saturday. The North
Country will remain positioned between these features, resulting in
south to southwest flow across the region. Therefore, while dry
weather will persist through the period, clouds will increase,
especially on Saturday as winds turn to the southeast, advecting in
moist maritime air. This airmass will also keep temperatures a
little cooler than the previous day; after lows in the mid 50s to
lower 60s Friday night, Saturday`s highs will be in the upper 70s to
around 80 for much of our region; the exception will be the
Champlain and St Lawrence Valleys where temperatures will reach into
the mid to upper 80s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 322 AM EDT Thursday...or those eagerly awaiting some
much-needed rainfall, your wait is nearly over. Upper
troughiness will dominate the eastern CONUS through much of next
week, and with the trough axis to remain to our west, we will
be under deep southwest flow a good portion of long term. Shower
chances will increase Saturday night into Sunday as warm air
advection occurs around the front of an upper low spinning into
the Upper Midwest. Have gone with likely PoPs for Sunday as
there will be showers around, but don`t anticipate the second
half of the weekend to be a complete washout as moisture will
wane through the day. The bulk of the rainfall looks to occur
Monday through Wednesday with a deep plume of moisture streaming
around the back of the Bermuda high. PWATs will approach 2+
inches and warm cloud depths will exceed 12,000 ft during this
timeframe, pointing to very efficient rainfall processes. It is
difficult at this early date to pinpoint exactly where the axis
of highest rainfall will occur, but confidence in widespread
rainfall amounts of 1+ inches across the North Country is
increasing. This will occur over a number of days and given the
recent dry weather there is no immediate flooding concern, but
trends will need to be monitored as this event approaches.
Daytime temperatures will be near to slightly above normal, but
with the influx of moisture, it`ll be quite muggy next week as
dewpoints surge into the 60s and 70s. Hence lows are anticipated
to be some 5- 10 degrees warmer than normal through Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Through 12Z Friday...Any lingering fog/br will quickly lift by
13z at slk. Otherwise, 1020mb high pres directly overhead will
result in clear skies and mainly light trrn driven winds of 3 to
6 knots today. VFR conditions prevail at all sites for the next
12 to 24 hours. Confidence is low on potential ifr in fog
development at slk/mpv tonight, so have not included in tafs at
this time.

Outlook...

Friday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Friday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Saturday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Saturday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA.
Sunday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance SHRA.
Sunday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance SHRA.
Monday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance SHRA, Chance
TSRA.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Taber
NEAR TERM...Taber
SHORT TERM...Hastings
LONG TERM...Hastings
AVIATION...Taber


 
 
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