FXUS61 KBTV 130519
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
119 AM EDT Tue Apr 13 2021
Quiet weather is expected to continue through Wednesday as we
remain trapped between two upper level lows. Temperatures will
remain seasonal, albeit above normal, with highs in the 60s and
lows in the 30s and 40s. The upper level low to our west will
move toward the North Country on Thursday which will bring the
next chance of rainfall to the region. Rain chances will
continue into early this weekend before high pressure builds
back across the region.
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 113 AM EDT Tuesday...No significant changes were made with
this update. Variable sky conditions exist across the North
Country at this hour, with clear skies across much of VT
squeezed between thicker cloud cover over the Adirondacks/St
Lawrence Valley and the far Northeast Kingdom. Have adjusted the
forecast through daybreak accordingly. Still seeing light
radar returns over southern St Lawrence County which could be
producing some sprinkles, so have kept with a slight chance for
showers. Otherwise the forecast is in good shape and no other
adjustments were needed.
Previous discussion...A decaying upper level low continues to
track across western Pennsylvania this afternoon and is expected
to dissipate this evening over Delaware and New Jersey. Light
rainfall continues to be observed across Central New York but
building mid- level heights will continue to suppress any
rainfall to the south of our forecast area this evening. In the
mean time, easterly flow in the low levels has helped advect a
maritime air mass into Vermont with dewpoints increasing this
afternoon with noticeably cooler temperatures compared to the
past several days. We will see a lot of this cloud cover
dissipate during the overnight hours as drier air filters into
the region which will allow for lows to drop into the mid 30s to
lower 40s. Very quiet weather is in store for the North Country
on Tuesday as we will remain trapped between two cut off low
pressure systems. Highs will warm nicely under partly to mostly
sunny skies into the lower to mid 60s with no chances of
rainfall once again. We will likely see some lake breezes
tomorrow afternoon at Burlington and Plattsburgh given the
temperature differential between the land and lake and very weak
synoptic flow which could bring some cooler temperatures to the
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 325 PM EDT Monday...Upper low remains far enough to our
west on Wednesday and Wednesday night that much of the area
should remain dry. Cannot rule out a shower or two during the
afternoon over northern New York, but that is about it. High
temperatures will generally be in the 60s with lows Wednesday
night in the mid 30s to mid 40s.
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 325 PM EDT Monday...Still no consistency in the long
range data with the next upper low moving toward the region
Thursday into Friday. But here is what we do know...upper low
will approach the region Thursday, but then the blocking pattern
will force it to our south and east. This will establish a
north to south gradient of precipitation chances with highest
south and lowest north. Dynamic cooling associated with the
upper low suggests temperatures just off the surface would cool
enough to produce some high elevation snow, generally above 1000
feet. At this time the southern Green Mountains would have the
best chance at seeing some of this snow. Given how the longer
range data has struggled overall with the blocking pattern, kept
precipitation probabilities in the slight chance to chance
category. But the values are higher based on NBM Viewer
probabilities of 0.01 and 0.10 inches with this event. System
eventually moves far enough south and east for precipitation to
come to an end and dry weather returns for Saturday. A few
showers will be possible on Sunday as an upper trough approaches
the region. Overall still looking above normal temperatures,
generally several degrees above normal.
.AVIATION /05Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Through 06Z Wednesday...Mainly VFR, though some low-level
moisture may get trapped below mountain ridges in light flow,
with FEW to SCT at 2000-2500ft AGL mentioned at a number of
terminals from about 06Z-12Z. The exception is KSLK which is now
reporting broken ceilings at 2800 ft, which will persist through
12z. However, think KSLK is most likely to see MVFR ceilings
from a BKN025 deck. After 12z, expect all sites to continue with
scattered clouds 2500-5000 ft. Winds remain fairly light
through daybreak and mainly influenced by terrain. So,
southeasterly winds will develop overnight at KRUT with
northeast winds at KMSS. After 14Z, winds will become a bit more
northeast to north- northwest with speeds 5 to 10 knots.
Wednesday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Thursday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance RA.
Thursday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance RA.
Friday: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Chance RA.
Friday Night: Mainly MVFR, with areas IFR possible. Slight chance
Saturday: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. NO SIG WX.