446
FXUS61 KBTV 070029
AFDBTV
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
829 PM EDT Mon Apr 6 2026
.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
As of 236 PM EDT Monday...
No significant changes were made with this forecast package.
&&
.KEY MESSAGES...
As of 236 PM EDT Monday...
1. Light snow showers to continue this afternoon with
additional showers expected on Tuesday.
2. Dry and warmer conditions expected mid-week with gusty winds
developing on Thursday.
3. Seesawing weather conditions over the weekend into early
next week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
As of 236 PM EDT Monday...
KEY MESSAGE 1: Snow showers have been a little more stubborn today than
initially thought with scattered to numerous snow showers currently
ongoing. Model soundings are showing a few J/kg of CAPE coinciding
with a saturated DGZ which has helped maximize snowfall processes.
With the lack of moisture, we haven`t seen much in terms of
accumulation but a dusting here or there through the remainder of
the afternoon/evening cannot be ruled out. Even as temperatures warm
into the upper 30s to lower 40s, dewpoints will remain low enough to
support snow rather than rain with temperatures falling whenever a
snow shower passes over. A shortwave trough embedded within the
cyclonic flow will act as a focus for additional snow showers on
Tuesday. Moisture will be severely lacking however, which will limit
overall accumulation to less than an inch for most locations but
some locations across the Adirondacks and higher elevations of the
Green Mountains could see 1-2 inches of snowfall. Cold advection
aloft will limit daytime heating with temperatures struggling to
warm above freezing tomorrow which is a bit unusual for the first
full week of April.
KEY MESSAGE 2: Surface high pressure is expected to be centered across
the North Country by sunrise on Wednesday which will allow for
clearing skies and noticeably warmer temperatures compared to those
on Tuesday. In addition to warming temperatures, much drier air is
expected to move into the region which will allow afternoon RH
values to drop below 30%. Winds will remain light, however, as we
remain underneath the influence of the high pressure system. This
will change on Thursday as the high translates to the east and
gradient winds begin to increase as a result. Moisture will begin to
advect into North New York as the high shifts east but this moisture
won`t move into Vermont until Thursday night. Minimum RH values will
once again drop below 30% for much, if not all, of Vermont Thursday
afternoon with winds in he 15 to 25 mph range. These conditions will
create elevated fire concerns as these dry and windy conditions will
allow for any fires that start to rapidly develop and spread.
KEY MESSAGE 3: Warming weather conditions are expected to continue
heading towards the weekend. A cold front will attempt to shift
east, but dry air will continue to round a stubborn high in the
Canadian Maritimes. Ultimately, the front will likely wash out along
the international border. However, higher dewpoints will remain in
place. Continued south flow will result in afternoon temperatures
climbing in the 60s on Friday. Clouds will be in the increasing
Friday evening, and by Friday night, a more substantial cold front
will pass southeast while low pressure ejects northeast up through
Quebec City. Moisture along the frontal boundary will be thinning as
it crosses overnight, and so widespread, but fairly light rain seems
the most likely outcome.
Saturday will be briefly cooler, though still somewhat above
seasonal norms, as a strong 1030-1033mb high slowly noses in with
dry northwesterly flow. The high will be overhead by Sunday morning,
and then moving offshore for Sunday afternoon. So we will quickly
return to 60s.
Another warm front will shuffle northeast Sunday night into Monday.
The air mass associated with this one seems richer in moisture with
the potential for a couple rounds of more moderate rainfall. The
latest NBM data has temperatures surging into the mid 60s to lower
70s. This may be generous, especially if we have widespread rain
ongoing midday next Monday.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Through 00Z Wednesday...Conditions will remain mainly VFR
through the forecast period with a few snow showers remaining
possible through the overnight hours. Should a stray shower move
directly over a terminal, MVFR conditions would be possible.
About 09z-12z, a weak area of low pressure will approach the
Adirondacks, which will bring ceilings back down and will likely
bring snow back into the area, especially south. Showers become
more widespread as the next wave moves through the region. MVFR
conditions will be possible through 20Z during showers with some
chances of IFR in heavier elements. Kept conditions MVFR in this
time period mainly with CIGs however. By 22Z, showers will be
diminishing as the primary trough exits the region.
Outlook...
Tuesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Thursday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Thursday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA.
Friday: VFR. Chance SHRA.
Friday Night: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. Chance SHRA.
Saturday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. NO SIG WX.
&&
.EQUIPMENT...
The Colchester Reef meteorological station is out of service.
This site is not serviced by the NWS. An estimated return to
service is May 1st. Please contact us if you observe winds
significantly deviating from the recreational forecast.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.
&&
$$
WHAT HAS CHANGED...Clay
DISCUSSION...Haynes/Clay
AVIATION...Boyd/Haynes
EQUIPMENT...NWS BTV
|
