911
FXUS61 KBTV 092307
AFDBTV
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
607 PM EST Mon Feb 9 2026
.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
As of 219 PM EST Monday...
A Winter Weather Advisory has been issued for the St. Lawrence
Valley and northern Adirondacks from 10 AM Tuesday to 7 AM
Wednesday, and for the northern Champlain Valley and spine of the
Greens from 2 PM Tuesday to 7 AM Wednesday, for 3 to 6 inches of
snow.
&&
.KEY MESSAGES...
As of 219 PM EST Monday...
1. A widespread light to locally moderate long duration
snowfall is expected Tuesday through Wednesday with storm total
snowfall of 2 to 6 inches, except locally higher in the mountains. A
quick burst of heavy snow will impact the Tuesday evening commute.
2. Temperatures will be seasonable through most of the week,
then less cold over the weekend. Many locations are likely to reach
32 degrees for the first time in over three weeks.
3. A potential coastal system could impact the region Sunday
into Monday.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
As of 219 PM EST Monday...
KEY MESSAGE 1: Similar to last night, the temperature forecast tonight
is challenging with increasing mid/upper level clouds and a shifting
area of high pressure ahead of our next impactful weather system.
Based on last nights temperature distributions, have kept
temperatures near the previous forecast with the coldest hollows
dipping below zero, especially across the Northeast Kingdom where
the area of high pressure will linger the longest. Dry dewpoints
with lingering arctic air, bodes increased confidence in some
persistence forecasting, though unlike last night, southerly flow by
daybreak will limit the total radiative cooling areawide.
Our next weather system arrives tomorrow early to late afternoon
from west to east. This light to moderate long duration snowfall is
expected to drop between 2 to 6 inches of generally fluffy snow.
Guidance continues to prog a period of enhanced mid-level
frontogenesis associated with transient waa, supporting at least a
few hours of heavy snow. The DGZ with this system continues to be a
limiting factor for any more moderate to heavy snows as it is only
progged to be 4-6kft thick at 10000ft agl. Moisture profiles will
struggle to saturate in the mid-levels at the onset of the event due
to lower dewpoints lingering from our departing high pressure.
Furthermore, overall, the moisture content of the system is only
modest with PWATs in both ensembilistic guidance and hi res data to
0.5." It will be quite difficult to eek out higher totals above 6".
Supporting this, NBM probabilities of 6" or more are only 15-25%,
with locally higher against the western facing slopes of the
northern Greens. Another limitation to higher totals will be the
presence of a 850mb southwest low level jet. Model soundings denote
a 40-50kt jet at 850mb with a mean column wind near 20-30kts.
Mountain summits will likely see gusts up to 40-45 knots. This jet
will shred dendrites, but will aid in enhancing frontogenesis on the
leading edge of the system. This frontogenesis band associated with
the occlusion of the surface low, will arrive during the Tuesday
evening commute, between 2-6 PM across northern New York, and 5-9 PM
across the Champlain Valley and northern Greens. The HREF shows this
band could have 1 to 1.5 inch per hour rates, resulting in 1 to 3
inches of heavy snow in this short window moving from west to east.
Travel Tuesday evening will likely see enhanced impacts due to the
timing of this heavier snow band.
As the center of the low shifts east, there is a chance for a brief
dry slot to develop across the southern Champlain Valley and
eastern Vermont which led to leaving these areas out of the
Winter Weather Advisory. Additional reasoning is due to the
potential for blocked flow along the Greens reducing the total
amount of moisture needed to reach advisory criteria. The snow
by late Tuesday night into Wednesday morning will turn more
showery as the main forcing shifts east and northwest blocked
flow turn valley snow into more upslope based snow along the
western facing slopes of the northern Greens and northwestern
Adirondacks. Winds will continue to turn north during the day
Wednesday with stronger caa surging south into the Champlain
Valley. A brief period of resurging snow showers is possible by
Wednesday afternoon/evening with froude numbers still below 0.5.
An additional half inch to an inch is possible with these
upslope snow showers and perhaps into portions of the Vermont
Champlain Valley that are closer to Lake Champlain given most of
the lake is currently frozen over. These snow showers will be
less fluffy than the Tuesday snow but will remain light as
surface temperatures will warm to near 30.
KEY MESSAGE 2: Behind the mid week clipper system, temperatures will
return to more seasonable levels with 925mb temperatures near -5C to
-15C. The prolonged trough responsible for our extended cold snap
will be off to our east which will limit any precipitation chances
as we look to sit atop a 1025mb high that will swing to our south.
Temperatures will continue to rise into the weekend ahead of a
southern stream of energy that will approach the region by next
week. Probabilities of reaching above freezing peak on Sunday at 50-
70%, higher across southern Vermont. However, should the high to our
south not be as strong or shift north, and we do not reach 32, this
thaw will end the longest deep freeze since the 2014-2015 winter. In
Burlington, the last day with a temperature breaking 32 degrees was
January 22nd; sub-freezing temperature streaks surpassing 21 days
are fairly unusual in the Burlington area, last happening January-
February 2015 and only occurring 20 times going back across the last
141 winter seasons.
KEY MESSAGE 3: Models continue to focus on the potential for a coastal
low to develop late this weekend. There are some big questions for
positioning of major features with model suites split on evolution
of the coastal low and a moderately deep low tracking across
southerly Canada. EPS/NBM are holding onto a phasing of feature
favoring higher chances of precipitation across the Northeast. Other
suites and deterministic runs are less consolidated with a wide
array of results possible. The track of these feature will
completely determine precipitation type for lower elevations and
snowfall/rain amounts. Ensemble probabilities support a lower level
of predictability with the likelihood of 0.1, 0.25, and 0.5 inches
or greater of liquid equivalent all ranging 40-50% across northern
New York/Vermont. On the flip side, the temperature signal is
strongly leaning more towards values greater than 32 degrees for
lower elevations during the day time hours supporting some potential
for mixed precipitation. For now, weather types were kept as a
rain/snow mix since these precip phase predictors are not reliable
at this time scale. The bottom line is that potential for an
impactful system remains, but details are few right now.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Through 00Z Wednesday...A widespread light to locally moderate
long-duration snowfall is expected Tuesday through Wednesday.
VFR conditions are anticipated through 18Z-22Z Tuesday with
clouds gradually increasing and lowering tonight and Tuesday
morning. Winds will be out of the west to northwest under 10
knots this evening, becoming light and variable (below 3 knots)
or calm, depending on the site and its nearby terrain. KRUT is
likely to have its typical light southeasterly terrain flow
tonight while KEFK may see a very light southwesterly flow at
times early Tuesday morning. Sunday around 15Z-18Z, we start to
see the atmosphere mixing down some sustained southerly to
southeasterly winds 5-10 knots with gusts 10-20 knots possible
at KPBG with Champlain Valley channeled flow. KMSS is the
exception of course, with winds likely out of the northeast
instead, 5-15 knots.
In addition to increasing winds, we anticipate the arrival of
snow around 18Z-22Z Tuesday, beginning at KMSS and KSLK then
continuing eastward to other sites. Widespread visibilities
below 6 miles are forecast by 20Z-22Z, with some sites (most
likely KSLK, KPBG, KRUT, and KMSS) seeing visibilities fall
below 3 miles before 00Z Wednesday. Ceilings are expected to
range around 2500-5000 feet above ground level with the onset
of snow, with some sites seeing ceilings 1500-3000 feet ceilings
by 00Z Wednesday as well. KMSS is most likely to have ceilings
dip below 1000 feet towards the 20Z-23Z Tuesday time frame, but
confidence is lower on the timing of that. KSLK and KPBG can
also expect LLWS 20Z-22Z Tuesday onwards with a low level jet
setting up over that portion of New York.
Outlook...
Tuesday Night: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Definite SN,
Chance SHSN.
Wednesday: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. Chance SHSN.
Wednesday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Slight
chance SN.
Thursday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. NO SIG WX.
Thursday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. NO SIG WX.
Friday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. NO SIG WX.
Friday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Saturday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
&&
.EQUIPMENT...
NOAA Weather Radio station WXM-44, transmitting from Mt.
Ascutney, Vermont, on frequency 162.475 MHz is non- operational
at this time. NWS technicians have diagnosed the problem, but
repairs will likely not be able to occur for quite some time due
to circumstances beyond our control. Therefore, the time of
return to service is currently unknown. The following NOAA
Weather Radio transmitters may be able to provide service during
this outage: WWG 50 from Burke Mtn, VT at 162.425 MHz and WNG
546 from Hanover, NH at 162.525 MHz.
The Colchester Reef meteorological station is out of service.
This site is not serviced by the NWS and there isn`t an
estimated return to service at present. Please contact us if
you observe winds significantly deviating from the recreational
forecast.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...Winter Weather Advisory from 2 PM Tuesday to 7 AM EST
Wednesday for VTZ001-002-005-006-016>019.
NY...Winter Weather Advisory from 10 AM Tuesday to 7 AM EST
Wednesday for NYZ026-027-029>031-034-087.
Winter Weather Advisory from 2 PM Tuesday to 7 AM EST
Wednesday for NYZ028.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Boyd/Danzig
AVIATION...Storm
EQUIPMENT...NWS BTV
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